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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-27-20 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 95-98 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, Sunday 7 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Pelicans here as the Spurs are off a game last night with the Raptors while the Pels were home resting. San Antonio has jumped out to a 2-0 start but now face a Pelicans team off a loss in Miami and rested. The Spurs are 9-13 SU their last 22 when playing without rest. You would think the storied franchise of San Antonio would thrive as an underdog but that is not the case. Since 2018 the Spurs are 25-27-1 ATS as a dog and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.8PPG. New Orleans is an up-and-comer in the West and have several pieces in place to make a strong run at a playoff berth. It starts with Zion Williamson who was on restricted minutes last year but is a full go this season. Add in All-Star Ingram, two great perimeter defensive guards in Bledsoe and Ball and a rim protector in Adams and you have a solid foundation. The play here is New Orleans minus the points. |
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12-27-20 | Canisius v. Monmouth -5 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Monmouth -5 over Canisius, 2 PM ET - Great spot to play on Monmouth and fade Canisius in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season these two teams met twice with Monmouth winning by 19 on this floor and 14 at Canisius. It clearly wasn’t a fluke Monmouth won twice considering they shot 49 and 50 percent in the two games and held Canisius to just 40% shooting in both contests. Last season Monmouth was the 3rd most efficient offense in the MAAC and 2nd best in defensive efficiency. Canisius was 7th in OEFF, 8th in DEFF. The Monmouth Hawks just split a pair of games with St Peters who finished second in the conference a year ago. Both games against St Pete’s went down to the wire and were decided by just 2-points. The Golden Griffins of Canisius split a pair of games with Marist to start the season and Marist was 7-23 SU last season and last in the conference. This is a bargain price and we’ll jump on the Hawks! |
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12-26-20 | Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Pacers have enough talent on their roster to be a threat in the East this season, especially with Oladipo back to full strength. The Pacers were just a -7.5-point favorite at home over the Knicks who aren’t much worse than this Bulls team and Indy beat New York by 14. The Bulls lost their season opener to the Hawks by 20, who expect to be better this season, but still aren’t at the Pacers level. Last season the Bulls were 27th in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.067 points per possession while Indiana was 19th at 1.100PPP. Chicago was in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency last season ranking 12th but Indiana was even better yet at 6th. Chicago had a negative point differential of -3.1PPG overall last season which was one of the 8 worst numbers in the league. Indiana beat the Bulls 4 times last season, all by more than this spread and three of which were by 9+ points. Lay the short number with the Pacers. |
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12-26-20 | Oakland v. Detroit UNDER 155 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* UNDER 155 Oakland @ Detroit Mercy, 4PM ET The oddsmakers have set a bad Total on this game and we plan to take advantage of this number. Our math model projects just 147-points in this Horizon League clash. Let’s start with the Horizon League. Last year conference games averaged 143 total points with Oakland and Detroit the 7th and 5th slowest paced teams in the league. Not only that these two teams were average in terms of offensive efficiency in conference action. In comparison, Detroit just played Wright State who was the 2nd fastest team in the conference last season with the highest offensive efficiency rating. In the two games last week Wright State and Detroit combined for 157 and 163 total points. Oakland is coming off a pair of games against Illinois Chicago last week which ended with 163 and 146 total points being scored. The oddsmakers had set Totals of 142 and 141 on those two games and UIC was similar to Detroit last season in terms of tempo. Last season in the two meetings between these two teams the Vegas numbers were 141 and 137 which are significantly lower than the number set this year. The two games last season finished with 141 and 147 total points. Easy call with UNDER here. |
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12-25-20 | Nets -2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-95 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, Friday 5PM ET Let’s be up front on this. Our computer analytics don’t have a lot of data on this game considering Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are taking the court together for just the second time this season. We can still accurately predict this game based on both teams’ openers though. With 30+ years’ experience handicapping the NBA we know a good team when we see one. In fact, we predicted the Nets to win it all in 2021. The young Nets played extremely well in the Bubble last season with several breakout players stepping up into bigger roles. Even without Durant and Kyrie this team was going to be a playoff team this season. Brooklyn beat this same Celtics team twice last year without KD or Kyrie. Brooklyn had 20 turnovers in their games against Golden State and still won by 26-points. We expect them to clean that part of their game up here against a Celtics team they would love to send a message to early in the season. Boston is off a HUGE win over the Bucks with Tatum banking in a 3-pointer with .04 seconds left in the game. The Celtics have depth concerns already and will be without Kemba Walker here. Last season the Nets were 15-21 SU on the road with an average road differential of minus -2.9PPG (again without KD, Kyrie). This game will have a little extra meaning for Kyrie (former Celtic) and the Nets who are considered the Celtics “little brother” in the East. The oddsmaker clearly have bought into the Nets as this line is nearly the same as the Bucks number in their first game against Boston. |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State +1.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State +1.5 over Wisconsin, Friday, 12:30PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a better “play on” situation with Michigan State in this contest. The Spartans are off a tough road loss at Northwestern and played as poorly as I’ve ever seen a Tom Izzo team play. In fact, Izzo publicly shamed his team after the game for the horrendous performance. Michigan State is 64-22 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-10 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. MSU has been a home underdog JUST 3 times in the last 20 years and you can bet this is a motivating factor. Granted, we can’t ignore the Badgers are 15-6 SU since 2015 as an away favorite but this is not a familiar situation against this level of competition. In fact, the Badgers were favored by 4.5 at Marquette and lost earlier this year. Last season Badgers were a 5-point home underdog to MSU and won 64-63 which makes this line off even more. Prior to last year, the Spartans had won 8 straight in this series. The Michigan State loss to Northwestern doesn’t look as bad now that the Wildcats just won on the road against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has been at home for most of the start of the season and face a really tough road game here. MSU is 76-9 SU their last 85 at home and won those games by an average of 19PPG. Take Michigan State! |
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12-23-20 | Illinois -4 v. Penn State | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Illinois -4 at Penn State, 6:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the opportunity to bet on an elite team such as Illinois coming off a loss. The Illini lost last time out at Rutgers by 3-points but were outscored at the free throw line by 14-points. Illinois shot well for the game by hitting 54% from the field, 60% from Downtown. Illinois has the 7th best offensive efficiency rating in college hoops at 1.147 points per possession and rank 37th in defensive efficiency allowing just .922PPP. Penn State is also coming off a loss at Michigan, but they were not expected to win as a 7-point dog. The Nittany Lions also have top 40 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency which is why the line on this game is as low as it is. The two previous times the Illini have been beaten this season they bounced back with blowout wins over Duke and Minnesota. Illinois will get a double-digit win here. |
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12-22-20 | Clippers v. Lakers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 LA Clippers vs. LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - If you are any kind of a basketball fan you shouldn’t need a history lesson on these two teams, so we’ll keep it short. These two Los Angeles rivals don’t like each other and will again be the two contenders to come out of the West. Both made significant changes in the offseason which included Clippers head coach Doc Rivers getting the boot. The Lakers lost several key assets in Rondo, Howard, McGee and Avery Bradley but brought in Schroder, Marc Gasol, Wes Matthews and Montrezl Harrell. As long as the Lakers have LeBron and AD though it doesn’t matter who else is on the roster. The Clippers had some turnover too and brought in Serge Ibaka, Luke Kennard and Nicolas Batum. The Clippers will go as far as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can take them. Defense is the name of the game here as both teams finished the regular season in the top five in defensive efficiency ratings as the Clippers allowed 1.077-points per possession while the Lakers gave up 1.076PPP. The number set on this game by Vegas reflects what teams were scoring at the end of the regular season and the playoffs last season in the Bubble games. Shooting and scoring was up late in the season as the smaller confines and no crowds made for better shooting sightlines. In the four meetings between these two teams last year, they combined for total points of 204 (in Bubble), 215, 217 and 214, all of which stayed Under the total. Based on our math model we have 216 total points being scored in this one. BET UNDER. |
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12-22-20 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 49-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -2.5 over St Mary, CA 9 PM ET - Great situation here with a very good San Diego State team coming off a loss to another solid team in BYU. The Aztecs have played one of the tougher schedules to date with quality wins over UCLA, Pepperdine and Arizona State. San Diego State is the 54th rated offensive efficiency unit in college hoops averaging 1.080 points per possession and a defense that gives up just .910PPP which is 26th best. St Mary’s is obviously a quality team this season with an 8-1 SU record but their strength of schedule of 185 doesn’t compare with SDSU. San Diego State was 30-2 last season and have 70% of their roster intact. Off their loss the Aztecs rebound here with a win. |
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12-21-20 | Texas State v. Northern Arizona UNDER 132.5 | Top | 70-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 132.5 Texas State vs. Northern Arizona, 3PM ET - There is no other way to put this, but this game is going to be ugly. Both teams have struggled offensively this season with No. Arizona checking in with the 306th ranked offensive efficiency rating at .935 points per possession. The Lumberjacks are also one of the slowest teams in the nation in terms of tempo and average possession length. They have the 325th effective shooting percentage, rank 308th in 3-point shooting and 319th in 2-pt percentage AND it’s come against a weak schedule. The Lumberjacks have scored 64 or below in each outing, and 53 or below in three of four. Northern just played a fast paced, high scoring Eastern Washington team and they totaled 144-points. Texas State also prefers to play slow, ranking 330th in tempo and 291st in average possession length. The Bobcats average just .978-points per possession and don’t shoot it well with an EFG% of 48.4%. Texas State just played a fast-paced Denver team and totaled 138. This game is being played at Magness Arena in Denver which means higher altitude and fatigue becomes a factor. Neither team gets to 65 here. Bet UNDER |
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12-17-20 | San Francisco v. Oregon OVER 143 | Top | 64-74 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 143 San Francisco vs. Oregon, 8PM ET The opening number on this game was 148 and has fallen throughout the day to the current number which gives us additional value. San Francisco is a team that has made some noise this season with a few quality wins over Virginia and Nevada and a couple close games against Rhode Island and California. The Dons are a senior laden team that can play with anyone right now and will compete with this Ducks team. San Francisco and California just put up 142 total points and the Cal Bears are one of THE slowest paced teams in college basketball. SF is averaging 1.068 points per possession which ranks 64th best in the nation. They shoot the 3-ball extremely well at 40% and should have success here against an Oregon team that is below average in defending the 3. The Ducks are below average in terms of pace of play, but they have the 15th best offensive efficiency numbers in college basketball at 1.109 points per possession. The Ducks averaged 76PPG last season while San Francisco scored 74PPG a year ago. Our model projects both teams scoring 75 or more points in this contest. Bet OVER. |
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12-16-20 | South Florida v. Cincinnati UNDER 132 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 132 South Florida vs. Cincinnati, 7 PM ET - Two really good defensive teams square off on Wednesday and we can’t see either team getting to the mid 60’s. The South Florida Bulls are six games into the season and have the 59th most efficient defense in college hoops allowing just .933 points per possession. They are also one of the slowest paced teams in the country at 248th. Those numbers are a true representation of this team as last season they were literally one of the slowest paced teams in all college hoops and had a defense that allowed .959 points per possession which was good for 63rd. On the other end of the court the Bulls weren’t good offensively a year ago with a horrendous EFG percentage, 3-point shooting and overall offensive efficiency. Cincinnati was 51st in defensive efficiency a year ago allowing under.950PPP, ranked 199th in pace and had the 25th best EFG% defense in college hoops. This season the Bearcats have been better yet defensively allowing just .912PPP. They are highly efficient offensively but also prefer a slower tempo and do not shoot the 3 well at 25%. Cincinnati also has a bigger game on deck with Georgia and may not be as focused here. Our model projects 127 total points. |
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12-15-20 | Minnesota v. Illinois OVER 146.5 | Top | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 146.5 Minnesota vs Illinois, 7 PM ET - We feel the oddsmakers had the correct opening number on this game and will bet against the move. Let’s start with the tempo or pace of play. Both teams have enough games under their belts for us to know what their preferred style of play is going to be this season. The Illini are 94th in tempo and have an average possession length of 16 seconds which is 82nd in the nation. Illinois is also highly efficient of the offensive end of the floor averaging 1.114 points per possession. HC Brad Underwood is known for his offense and it’s showing this year with a team that has the 8th best effective field goal percentage in the nation, shoot 44.3% from beyond the arc (8th best) and average 88PPG. Minnesota like to play fast also with the 67th fastest paced team in college basketball this season. On average the Gophers get a shut up every 14.8 seconds which is 25th in the country. Minnesota has scored 85 or more points in four of six games this season which has turned into a 84.2PPG scoring average this season. Yes, both teams have some impressive defensive numbers but the pace of this game and offenses will outshined each teams’ defenses. Let’s not forget the average total points scored in a college game this season is 145 so asking these two teams to score more than that is not a stretch. |
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12-14-20 | Nevada -3.5 v. San Diego | Top | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Nevada -3.5 over San Diego, 9 PM ET - We feel this is a generous number by the oddsmakers and will gladly side with the Wolfpack in this situation. Nevada was just favored by 1-point at Grand Canyon who is MUCH better than San Diego and lost by 10-points. Nevada is rebuilding this season with several new faces but there seems to be some continuity building on the offensive end of the floor where they have shot over 50% the last two contests. San Diego is going to struggle to score here with an offense that made just 31% of their field goal attempts in their opener against UCLA. That number is not an aberration though as the Toreros were putrid on offense a year ago ranking 315th in offensive efficiency at .944 points per possession. San Diego had one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation last season at 45.9%, they hit just 30.7% of their 3-pointers and 45.8% from inside the arc, which are again some of the worst statistics in college hoops a season ago. San Diego closed last season with a 2-15 SU record and we do not see them keeping pace with a Nevada team that is much better offensively (1.017PPP) and coming off a loss. |
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12-13-20 | Wright State v. Bowling Green OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 150.5 Wright State vs. Bowling Green 12 PM ET - Our math model has again uncovered a glaring error by the oddsmakers on a line in college hoops on Sunday. The projections for the Wright State vs. Bowling Green game are 160 according to our computers and we couldn’t agree more with them. Let’s examine last years numbers first. Bowling Green was much faster than average in terms of pace of play a year ago ranking 81st in tempo and 88th in average possession length at 16.6 seconds. The Falcons were above average in terms of offensive efficiency and well below average in terms of defensive efficiency. In other words, they score, and allow opponents to score. Bowling Green just played Buffalo who is similar to Wright State in many key statistical categories and they combined for 164 total points. Wright State only has two games under their belt this season but already look very similar to last years team that was 31st in tempo, 132nd in offensive efficiency and around average in defensive efficiency. Wright State was the 7th highest scoring team in the nation last season at 80PPG. BG put up 74PPG and this game sets up to be a shootout. |
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12-12-20 | Wofford v. South Florida UNDER 134.5 | Top | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 134.5 Wofford vs. South Florida, 12 PM ET This is a very low number, but we will play UNDER here in the Wofford vs. South Florida game. Both teams have several similarities here as they play extremely slow offensively and are known for their defensive intensity. Last year the Bulls were literally one of the slowest paced teams in college basketball ranking 324th in tempo and they took 18.5 seconds to get a shot up which was 308th. Defensively they were outstanding allowing just .959 points per possession which was 63rd in the nation. Wofford was 293 in pace last year and took 18 seconds on average to get a shot off which was 257th in college hoops a year ago. Defensively the Terriers are allowing less than 1.000 points per possession this season. Last season Wofford did not have great defensive numbers but part of that was a byproduct of playing in the Southern Conference which had six teams in the top 80 in terms of tempo last season. Last year when these two teams met, they combined for just 124 total points on 96 field goal attempts. Both teams shot well, and it still didn’t have a chance to go Over. Easy bet Under. |
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12-11-20 | Niagara v. St. Peter's UNDER 135 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 135 Niagara vs. St Peters, 8 PM ET |
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12-10-20 | San Diego State v. Arizona State OVER 142 | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: OVER 142 San Diego State vs. Arizona State, 10PM ET We like OVER here, even more with the line drop from 147 to where it currently stands. There are a few givens here that help us accurately predict a higher scoring game here. We know for a fact the Sun Devils are going to play fast and score points. In a short sample size the Sun Devils are averaging 1.113 point per possession (10th nationally) and typically take just 15.5 seconds to get a shot up which is 46th. That coincides to last year’s averages of 1.060PPP (108th) and an Adjusted Tempo of 73.2 which was 14th. Arizona State averaged 74PPG a season ago. ASU was below average in points allowed per game last season (195th) at 71PPG allowed. ASA played a better version of San Diego State earlier this season and Vegas set a number of 158 on that game and the two teams combined for 157 total points. We haven’t overlooked the fact the Aztecs play extremely slow and are fantastic defensively. SDSU is 24th in defensive efficiency this season and were 10th last season allowing just .9000 points per possession. But they are also highly efficient on offense and score 1.070 points per possession, shoot 3’s well at 32.4% and have an EFG% of 50. The Aztecs attempt a lot of three pointers at 24 per game and ASU is not great at defending beyond the arc. The Total on this game has been over-compensated and sets up for an EASY OVER! |
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12-09-20 | Northern Iowa v. Richmond OVER 148.5 | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 148.5 Northern Iowa vs Richmond, 6 PM ET - Our models are projecting 154 or more total points on this contest as two highly efficient offenses square off. Richmond is averaging 1.075 points per possession this season which is 44th best in college hoops. That’s no fluke as the Spiders were 53rd last season at 1.092PPP. Richmond also prefers a faster tempo style of play as they ranked 124th in adjusted tempo a year ago and are 58th this season. On average it takes Richmond just 15.4 seconds to get a shot up. They have an effective FG% of 54.8% which is also outstanding. Richmond has faced two very slow paced teams this season in Morehead State and Wofford and one really good defensive team in Kentucky which has kept this O/U number from getting too high. No. Iowa is also very efficient at 1.058PPP this season which is slightly lower than last years number of 1.127 which was 23rd in the nation. The Panthers have a 54.9% EFG percentage, rank 123rd in pace this season and hit 44.6% of their 3-point attempts. Northern Iowa has played one similar opponent to Richmond (in terms of pace and offensive efficiency) this season and that was Utah State. That game resulted in 153 total points. |
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12-08-20 | Austin Peay v. Murray State UNDER 147 | Top | 57-87 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 147 Austin Peay vs. Murray State, Tues 8:30PM ET Austin Peay and Murray State are two of the best teams in the Ohio Valley Conference, along with Belmont, and this should be a fantastic early conference game to start the season. These two teams played three times last season with Murray State winning 2 of three, including a conference tourney win to end AP’s season. Both teams are loaded with returning talent which gives up a great barometer for this season’s matchup. In the three games last season Vegas posted totals of 143, 142 and 145 and all three ended with 139 or fewer total points being scored. In other words, we are getting more value with today’s O/U number and a solid history of 5 of the last six meetings being Unders. Last season Ohio Valley conference games averaged 142 total points per game. Austin Peay was the 2nd slowest paced teams in conference action a year ago while Murray State was 5th. Murray State was the best defensive team in the OVC allowing just .943 points per possession. Austin Peay was 3rd at 1.000PPP. The Under trend continues in the rivalry. Bet UNDER. |
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12-05-20 | Samford v. Belmont OVER 157 | Top | 96-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: OVER 157 Samford vs. Belmont, 5PM ET - This game sets up to be a high scoring affair with two teams that want to get out and run, get easy buckets in transition, and outscore opponents. Last season Belmont was the 65th fastest paced team in college hoops and a top 100 team in terms of offensive efficiency. The Bruins got it done mainly from “downtown” with a team that shot 34.8% from beyond the arc (94th) and were 10th in effective FG% at 54.8%. On average it took Belmont just 15.7 seconds to get a shot off last season which was 22nd in the nation. Belmont will continue to play fast this season with the 46th fastest paced tempo and an offense that is averaging 1.039 points per possession (84th). The Bruins played another team this season, Howard, who is remarkably similar to this Samford team in terms of pace and are poor defensively. In that game (Belmont/Howard) they combined for 173 total points. As for Samford we know they are going to push the pace as they rank 28th in tempo this season and were 25th last season. In the 2019 season the Bulldogs took just 15.9 seconds to get a shot up which was 34th fastest in college hoops. Samford was horrendous defensively a year ago ranking 332nd in defensive efficiency and 342nd in 3-point opponent 3-point shooting, which plays right into Belmont’s hands. Last season these two teams combined for 158, the year before 164 in regulation. This year will be higher yet. |
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12-02-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas OVER 148 | Top | 60-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA play on: Over 148 UT Arlington vs. Arkansas, Weds 9PM ET This really could not set up any better than it does with the results of the games played thus far. Starting with Texas Arlington. UTA put up 151 total points against Northwestern State, 147 with Louisiana Tech and 143 with Oklahoma State. In the NWST game the two teams combined for 142 shot attempts which is 28 more FG attempts than last year's national average. Northwestern State also plays a similar style of play as Arkansas which is up-tempo, but UTA and NWST both shot poorly or that game ends with way more than 151 total points. Against LA Tech, a slower paced team, the Mavericks also got 70 field goal attempts up but again didn’t shoot it as well, and the game still ended with 147 total points. UTA also faced Oklahoma State who was (slow) 238th in possessions per game last season and a top 90 team in terms of defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Mavs face an Arkansas team that was 49th in possessions per game a year ago which ranked 49th in the nation. The Hogs take just 14.5 seconds to get a shot up this season which is 20th fastest in college hoops. Arkansas is averaging 1.068 points per possession and have the 22nd best effective FG percentage in the country right now. Arkansas put up 142 points themselves in their opener but then played a slow and deliberate North Texas team which resulted in just 123 total points, 69 for Arkansas. North Texas though was 340th in possessions per game last year out of 353 schools so they got the tempo they wanted, and it led to an extremely low scoring game. Arkansas is very capable of putting up 85+ in this game and Arlington has enough capable scoring options to keep this close throughout. In the end it is 155 total points. |
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12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Creighton OVER 149 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 149 Nebraska-Omaha vs. Creighton, 5PM ET We can make a solid case for an over bet here when these instate schools face off on Tuesday. Let’s start with Creighton who is ranked as the 2nd best team in the Big East and a top ten overall ranking in college basketball. The Jays are coming a lower scoring win 69-58 over North Dakota State which has helped keep this line lower than it should be. Inside the numbers we find that Creighton actually played faster in the game with 63 field goal attempts but shot poorly at 43% overall and 23% from the 3-point line. They were also up against a NDSU team that was one of the slowest paced in college basketball last year at 275. Creighton was 148th in pace of play last season. Those shooting statistics are significantly lower than their season average from a year ago when they made 46.9% from the field (23rd) and 38.7% from beyond the arc which was 6th best in the nation. With a loaded roster and coming off that bad shooting night we expect a drastically better scoring output for the Bluejays here, especially against a Nebraska Omaha team that was 286th in defensive efficiency, 300th in effective FG% defense and 306th in defending the 3-pointer last season. The other team on the floor in this game, Nebraska Omaha, was the 66th fastest paced team in college hoops last year and want to get up and down. NEOM averaged 73.5PPG last season which was good for 85th in the nation. Creighton will get to the mid-to-high 80’s here and NEOM gets to the mid-to-high 60’s. Bet Over! |
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11-30-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Duquesne UNDER 144.5 | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 144.5 Arkansas Little Rock vs. Duquesne, Monday 4PM ET A team we will have our eyes on early in the season will be Duquesne. They return a ton of talent (7 of top 8 scorers) to a team that finished 21-9 SU last season but this is their first game of the season while UALR has two games under their belts so we aren’t interested in betting a side here. What we do like here is a lower scoring game with two very deliberate teams in terms of pace of play. Last season the Dukes ranked 244 in terms of average possession length as it took them on average 17.9 seconds to take a shot. They had an adjusted tempo of 67.8 which ranked 211th. They protected the rim with a top 10 ranking in block percentage and defended the 3-point line extremely well allowing 30.1% from beyond the arc. Arkansas Little Rock is 1-1 on the season and put up 70 and 71 points respectively in their two games. They shot better than expected in both and only attempted 51 and 48 field goal attempts in both games. That ties into the fact they only attempted 53 field goals per game last season which ranks 333 out of 353 schools. Last season UALR had a decent overall offensive efficiency rating but those lofty numbers came because of playing in the Sun Belt, which typically plays fast, and isn’t known for their defense. According to our math models this game projects out to just 134 total points being scored. The bet here is UNDER. |
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10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 216.5 Miami Heat vs LA Lakers, Friday 9 PM ET We are betting this game is similar to the last two games in this series which have slowed down dramatically with shooting percentages dropping. In the last game these two teams combined for 154 total field goal attempts and shot a combined 43% which resulted in 198 total points. In the previous game the end result was 219 total points but the 159 FG attempts were lower than Games 1 & 2 which had 173 and 168. Let’s not forget these two teams ranked 3rd and 11th in defensive efficiency rating in the regular season and both have similar numbers in the post season. Both teams are also playing slower than their regular season pace of play. With this being a potential elimination game, I expect a very deliberate game with high intensity on the defensive end of the floor. With the added pressure shots won’t fall as easily in this game. Bet Under |
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10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +7.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat +7.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET The Heat got back into this series with a win in Game 3 and we feel that confidence carries over to another extremely competitive game here. The Heat got a monster game out of Jimmy Butler who scored 40-points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and handed out 13 assists. Another key factor to the wins was the balanced scoring by the entire Heat team, which has been a staple in this postseason. Miami had five players score in double-digits including Kelly Olynyk (17) who has given them another viable scoring option. If we use the full season as a baseline, we know the Lakers were a below average 3-point shooting team (ranked 21st) at 35%. In Game 3 we saw the Lakers hit just 33% of their 3-point attempts and shoot a more average overall 43% from the field. That was a better indicator of what they should shoot, and it resulted in a much closer game with the Heat making more plays down the stretch. The Lakers are not a great team as a favorite in this price range at 6-4 ATS nor is their 14-8 SU record off a loss overwhelming. In fact, the Lakers average win margin off a loss this season is just +2.6PPG which isn’t enough to get a cover in this game. The Heat may get some help and add to their depth with Bam Adebayo or Dragic back for this game. Both are listed as questionable, but it sounds likely they’ll have Bam. There is a reason that Vegas has dropped this line 2-points compared to the last game and yet money and tickets are coming in on L.A. Bet the Heat in a close win or loss. |
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10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat OVER 219.5 | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: OVER 219.5 Miami Heat vs. LA Lakers Game 3 Sunday - The Heat had a horrible shooting night in Game 1 which resulted in just 98-points. In Game 2 they bounced back and hit 51% overall from the field and made 11 of 27 from beyond the arc. Those were a drastic improvement over Game 1’s numbers of 43% and 31% and helped the Heat score 114-points against Los Angeles. Miami has the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers in the post-season averaging 1.143 points per possession which is nearly identical to their regular season PPP when they averaged 112PPG. Defensively the Heat were the 11th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.097PPP but in the Playoffs that number has risen to 1.115PPP. In essence, the Heat are scoring about the same as in the regular season but allowing more points per game in the Playoffs. Even without Dragic and Adebayo they still managed 114 in Game 2 and if we get a similar scoring output today this game goes Over easily. We haven’t forgotten about the Lakers who have put up 116 and 124 points in the first two games. In Game 1 they could have easily put up 130 had they wanted to but the game was out of reach early so they coasted down the stretch. The Lakers have shot 45% and 51% in the two games with Anthony Davis nearly setting a Playoff record in shooting percentage by hitting 15 of 20 from the field. The Heat don’t have an answer for the Finals MVP as Davis is an impossible matchup for them without Adebayo. The Lakers have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers of all Playoff teams as they average 1.170 points per possession and 98 possessions per game which is 7th highest. The pace of play numbers, offensive and defensive efficiency numbers suggest this will be a slightly higher scoring game than a normal NBA contest which was around 223PPG during the regular season. Our Model predicts 230 Total points and we couldn’t agree more with it! |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: OVER 216 - Miami Heat vs. LA Lakers Game 2 Friday - We are betting the Heat do not have another horrible shooting night as they did in the opener. Miami’s points per possession numbers were fantastic coming into the Finals and then they could not buy a bucket against L.A. in Game 1. Duncan Robinson is one of the best shooters in the league and he went 0-3. Tyler Herro has made a name for himself in the postseason with a 37-point game, but he shot just 6 of 18 the other night, 2 of 8 from Downtown. Miami as a team shot just 43% overall and 31% from beyond the arc. Even though they will be shorthanded here with out Dragic and Adebayo they can spread the floor with shooters and play small ball. The Lakers pulled their foot off the gas in the opener and led by as many as 38 points in the game. The scored 116 but could have easily put up 130 had they wanted to. Los Angeles shot 45% overall and 39% from the field in their dominating win. Miami does not have an answer for Anthony Davis here and he will score at will. The pace of play numbers were good in the opener with 173 field goal attempts and by our calculations should have resulted in 222 total points being scored. These two teams had the highest offensive efficiency numbers in the post season and our math model predicts an average game for these two to finish with 224 total points. Bet Over! |
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09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Miami Heat +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET Despite the Heat's lower seed to start the Playoffs, it’s evident these two teams are playing the best basketball of all NBA teams and deserving of this Finals entry. Miami and Los Angeles are the top two teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the postseason. The one great equalizer of this year’s bizarre Playoffs has been the neutral floor and we feel that levels the playing field for the young Miami Heat. The intensity, pressure, and atmosphere of playing on the road in Los Angeles is eliminated and gives this Heat team a legitimate shot to win this Championship. Miami will steal a victory in Game 1 for several reasons. The Heat matchup well with L.A. as Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala can all defend LeBron and Bam Adebayo can match up against Anthony Davis. Since 2013, Butler and Crowder have held LeBron to 42.2% shooting and below while Iggy is a notorious LBJ stopper. LeBron is leading all players in assists in the postseason but also in turnovers. Miami has a solid edge offensively with diversity as six players average double-digit scoring, four are scoring over 16.5PPG. On any given night it can be anyone for Miami which is extremely hard to defend. In comparison, the Lakers only have three players averaging 10+ points and rely heavily on LeBron and AD who average 26+. While Playoff Rondo has been great, we’re not really sure where the Lakers can turn to if LeBron and AD are limited while Miami has more scoring options. The Lakers have already lost two Game 1’s in a series and are notorious slow starters. Without the pressure we like the young Heat in Game 1. |
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09-27-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 214 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 214 Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat, 7:30PM ET - In the last three games of this series we have seen 223, 221 and 229 total points being scored. Vegas has adjusted their number on these games with the line rising from 209.5 in Game 1 to 214.5 in this contest, but we still have value. The pace of the last three games has led to the higher scoring results as the two teams have gone from 162 field goal attempts in Game 2 to 170, 173 and 170 in the ensuing games. We look for anomalies in outcomes to accurately predict the future and the one glaring stat from the last game was how poorly the Heat shot from beyond the arc. Miami was just 7 of 36 from the 3-point line or 19% which was WELL below their season average of 37.4% that was 4th best in the league. Granted the Heat haven’t shot it as well overall against a stiff Celtics defense, but our model has accounted for that discrepancy and based this outcome on the Heat shooting 29% from beyond the arc. Miami isn’t the only team we need to score here to cash our Over. Boston has gained confidence in the last game and looked like the team that was predicted to come out of this series. The Celtics put up 121 in the last game with 45% shooting overall and 32% from beyond the arc. They also cut down on turnovers which has been a huge issue in this series. The average points scored in this series has been 223PPG per game and that trend continues here. Bet OVER |
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09-26-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Denver Nuggets +5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET If any team in the Bubble can pull of a dramatic come from behind series win it’s the “Cardiac Kids” from Denver. The Nuggets have already survived 3-1 deficits in the playoffs and one of those came against the Clippers who were favored to win it all. If a few bounces of the ball or calls by the officials had gone the other way in this series, it could very likely be 3-1 in Denver’s favor. That’s a testament to just how well they’ve played the Lakers in this series. Anthony Davis have been by far and away the best Laker in the playoffs as he leads them in scoring, rebounding and blocks but he did tweak an ankle in the last game, and despite finishing the game, looked a little gimpy afterwards. If AD isn’t 100% the Lakers don’t have the depth to overcome his loss. The Nuggets MUST get some contributions on the offensive end from someone other than Jokic and Murray and Michael Porter Jr. is that guy. In Game 4 Porter Jr. scored 13 points on 5 of 8 shooting in just 20 minutes. Yes, he’s a liability on defense but coach Malone has to live with that for the trade off of instant scoring. Denver is a respectable 23-12 SU off a loss this season and have won those games by an average of +3PPG. The Nuggets extend this series with an outright win on Saturday. (Small bet on the moneyline too) |
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09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics -3 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Friday 8:30PM ET It’s do-or-die time for Boston and we feel they respond with a double-digit win in this elimination game. Has Miami beaten Boston or have the Celtics beaten themselves? The Celtics committed 19 turnovers in Game 4 and have averaged 15.75 TO’s per game in the series. That is uncharacteristic for this team that averaged the 6th fewest TO’s in the league in the regular season at 13.6. The Celtics continue to shoot it well and have been better in the series in their EFG% percentage overall and even in Game 4 when they hit 48% from the field while Miami hit 44%. The difference for the Heat was incredible shooting night by Milwaukee native Tyler Herro. Tyler is going to be a good pro and is a capable scorer when he gets it going as I can attest to first-hand having coached against him numerous times in his youth. Boston will have a defensive answer for him tonight and put the onus on another Heat to pick up the scoring slack. Don’t you find it strange that the team up 3-1 in this series is still an underdog? Boston is a respectable 19-11 SU off a loss and we’ll back them one more time here. |
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09-24-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 215 | Top | 114-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 215 Lakers vs Nuggets, 9 PM ET - There is still value in this Total and we like a solid UNDER bet here. The first number on this series was 210.5 in Game 1 which finished well above the Total with 240 points. Then in Game 2 the oddsmakers adjusted the line up to 215.5 and only 208 points were scored. In Game 3 the Nugs and Lakers combined for 220 total points and an over (214.5) but it took 52% and 55% shooting by both teams to get there. The Lakers shoot 48% on the season while the Nuggets shoot 47% so you can seel they het well above their normal standards. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 166 combined FG attempts but in Game 2 that total dropped to 157. In Game 3 they combined for 160 FG attempts which is still well below an average NBA game of 177 which typically results in 222 total points. Combined these two teams are on a 11-1-2 UNDER run when playing on 1 day rest. This game will be much tighter as the intensity is ramping up for both clubs. Bet UNDER. |
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09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 4 Wednesday 8:30 PM ET We are going to side with Boston again in this critical Game 4 as a win here gets this series to 2-2 and turns it into the best of three. The Celtics in large part have outplayed the Heat in all three games but didn’t close out the first two games of the series. In Game 1 the Celtics were +12 going into 4th and faltered down the stretch. In Game 2 the Celts were up 13 at half and collapsed in the 3rd quarter. In Game 3 they led coast to coast in a comfortable win. Boston has Shot 50% and 48% last two games and the return of Gordan Hayward certainly helped with the late game rotations. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and have a great straight up record off a loss, but Boston has been the better team for better part of all three games and are still in a desperate situation. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 5-7 ATS record when getting +4.5 or less points. Boston has an edge when it comes to shooting and can match the Heat defensively so we will go with the better team down 1-2 in the series. Lay the points in a close Boston win. |
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09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 214 Lakers vs Nuggets, 9PM ET There is still value in this Total and we like a solid UNDER bet here. The first number on this series was 210.5 in Game 1 which finished well above the Total with 240 points. Then in Game 2 the oddsmakers adjusted the line up to 215.5 and only 208 points were scored. Our analytics say Game 3 is going to be very similar to Game 2 in terms of pace and field goal percentages which will yield another UNDER the Total win. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 166 combined FG attempts but in Game 2 that total dropped to 157. Both teams shot over 45% for the game but when you aren’t playing fast and don’t get as many field goal attempts you just can’t score as many points. The Nuggets also did a much better job of keeping the Lakers off the free throw line as they limited them to just 19 attempts. Combined these two teams are on a 11-0-2 UNDER run when playing on 1 day rest. This game will be much tighter as the intensity is ramping up for both clubs. Bet UNDER |
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09-20-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30PM ET As we mentioned in our Game 1 wager on the Lakers, they have benefitted from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. Fatigue was the very obvious in the opener as the Nuggets were sloppy with the basketball, didn’t win the 50/50 balls and looked slower than the Lakers who scored 16 fast break points. The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 9 of eleven playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. Los Angeles led by 27-points in Game 1 and the final margin of 12 does not do justice to how dominating a win it was for L.A. I was surprised this line didn’t come out higher than it did considering the Clippers were favored by as many as 9.5-points in their series against the Nuggets. L.A. can matchup with the Nuggets at every position, but the Nuggets can’t contain Anthony Davis. We will lay the points again with Los Angeles. |
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09-19-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtics -3 over Miami Heat, Game 3 Saturday We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss essentially ends this series with them down 0-2 already. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-11 SU record, 6-2 their last eight. Boston lost two straight games in the Raptors series then bounced back to win 2 of three so we know they’re capable of getting back into this series with a win here. Boston shot well in the last game and hit 50% from the field in Game 2 after a poor shooting night in Game 1. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 4-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. With a 2-0 lead the Heat may relax a little in this one and leave the door open for the Celtics to get a win and cover. Lay the points in a close Boston win. |
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09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -7 over Denver Nuggets, 9 PM ET The Lakers have benefited from some favorable scheduling and have caught all three opponents in the playoffs off extended series. First, they had the Blazers who had to battle just to get into the post season then beat Memphis to face the Lakers. In the next round they got a Houston team that was off a grueling 7-game series against Oklahoma City. Now they get Denver, who themselves have had two 7-games series and emotional come from behind wins when they were down 3-1 in both. How much do the Nuggets have in their tanks against a well-rested Lakers team? The Lakers have the best playoff point differential at +8.9PPG and have won 8 of ten playoff games by more than tonight’s spread. The Nuggets have captured the attention and hearts of the public and are over-valued in this opening game. We are pulling for a great series here but feel the Lakers get a big win in the opener. |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Boston Celtic -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday 7PM ET We are playing on the Celtics minus the points here as a loss puts them in too deep a hole to get out of. Boston was solid this season when coming off a loss with a 18-10 SU record, 6-1 their last seven. The Celtics led by double-digits going into the fourth then couldn’t buy a bucket down the stretch in the 4th quarter and OT. Two of Boston’s big guns had horrible shooting nights as Tatum and Walker combined for 5 of 21 from the 3-point line. Expect a much better outing as Tatum shot over 40% from downtown this season, while Walking hit over 38%. The Heat have played great basketball in the Playoffs and may still win this series but in this situation, we have to fade them. Miami as a short underdog hasn’t been great with a 3-5 ATS record when getting +2.5 or less points. Lay the points in a close Boston win. |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -7.5 over Denver Nuggets, Tuesday 9PM ET We are value bettors and this line has us on the Clippers in this Game 7. The previous numbers on games in this series have had the Clippers favored by -8.5-points and line drop has us on them again here. Is there a better big game player in the NBA than Kawhi Leonard? We don’t think so. The Clippers have blown 16 and 19-point leads in the last two games and we don’t see this veteran team blowing another one in this elimination game. Granted, we love this Denver team and the heart they play with but the situation and pressure is magnified tonight and we don’t see the young Nuggets pulling off another upset. LA is 24-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-8 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We mentioned this the other day but the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +14PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. |
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09-13-20 | Clippers -8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Denver Nuggets, Sunday 1:05 PM ET - We are going to keep this analysis a little shorter than normal with football in full swing but the pick here is the LA Clippers. The Clippers just watched the Lakers end their series against the Rockets and will do the same to the Nuggets Sunday. LA is 24-5 SU this season when coming off a loss, 22-7 ATS. The Clippers were outscored by 13-points in the 4th quarter of the last game and blew a 7-point lead. We don’t anticipate that happening again here with a veteran team. Denver got 26-points from Jamal Murray in Game 5 after struggling to score in the previous two games but don’t expect a repeat performance here. The Clippers have multiple defenders at Murray which then puts a huge scoring onus on Nikola Jokic. The nail in the coffin for us in this wager is the Clippers average margin of victory after a loss which is +15PPG. They’ll win by double-digits here and move on to face the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals |
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09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on:Under 215.5 Rockets vs. Lakers – We don’t like the fact that this total has dropped 227.5 in the opener of the series but will still lean towards the UNDER HERE. To score points you need to take and make shots. The league average for field goal attempts per game is 177 during the regular season and the average total points scored was 223PPG. The Field goal attempts per game are well below league average in this series with 153, 159, 161 and 164. HOUSTON DEFENSE: In the regular season the Rockets were 14th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.103 points per possession. In the eight Bubble games the Rockets lowered that number to 1.095PPP and in the Playoffs they are giving up just 1.100PPP. HOUSTON OFFENSE: In the regular season the Rockets were the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 103.7 possessions per game. In the Playoffs the Rockets are averaging just 98.5 possessions per game which is 10th slowest of the 16 teams. Rockets offensive efficiency numbers have dropped in the Playoffs too. LAKER DEFENSE: The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been nearly as good in the postseason allowing just 1.071PPP. The Lakers are also playing slower and average under 100 possessions per game in the Playoffs. LAKERS OFFENSE: The Lakers shot well above their season average in Games 2 & 3 over 55% from the field in both and still they only managed 117 and 112-points. In the most recent game, the Lakers shot 49% and put up 110-points. We feel the Lakers are going to be very deliberate here in their tempo and they’ll control the pace of this game. Bet Under here. |
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09-11-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 216 | Top | 111-105 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 216 Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers, 6:30 PM ET We hate betting into a number that has moved as much as this Total has but we still feel based on current pace of play, there is still enough value here to bet Under. In the last game of this series these two teams combined for 181 total points which stayed well below the number. Three of the four games in the series have ended with 217 or less points scored. The field goal attempt numbers are what stands out to us here as last game saw just 147 shots taken. In Game 3 these two teams combined for 169 FGA’s which is still below league average. Los Angeles has been stifling on defense allowing 1.03 points per possession this series and Denver continues to play slow with an average of 15.3 seconds to get a shot up every possession. The Clippers have multiple defenders to throw and Nuggets guard Jamal Murray and have held him to under 20-points and less than 41% shooting in 3 of the four games thus far. Let’s not forget that Murray scored 142 combined points in just three games against the Jazz last round. The Under is now 40-18-1 the last 59 meetings between these two teams. Yes, we’ve lost some value from the opening game of this series, but tempo and pace are dictating another low scoring game here. Bet UNDER |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5 | Top | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Under 220.5 LA Lakers vs. Houston Rockets, 7PM ET - The Under continues to cash at a remarkable rate in the NBA Playoffs as teams have stepped up their defensive intensity and slowed their pace of play. That couldn’t be more true in this series between the Lakers and Rockets. Houston has flipped a switch and suddenly started playing defense in the restart. In the regular season the Rockets were 14th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.103 points per possession. In the eight Bubble games the Rockets lowered that number to 1.095PPP and in the Playoffs they are giving up just 1.057PPP. In the regular season the Rockets were the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 103.7 possessions per game. In the Playoffs the Rockets are averaging just 98.7 possessions per game which is 10th slowest of the 16 teams. But it’s not all about defense as the Rockets offensive efficiency numbers have dropped in the Playoffs too. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been nearly as good in the postseason allowing just 1.075PPP. The Lakers are also averaging under 100 possessions per game in the Playoffs. The Lakers shot well above their season average in Games 2 & 3 over 55% from the field in both and still only managed 117 and 112-points. Let’s not forget, the average number of field goal attempts per game in the NBA this season is 177 and these two teams have not combined for more than 164 FGA’s in any of the three games. The Under is the way to go here. |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Over 210 Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics, 6:30 PM ET - If you have followed our handicapping expertise for any length of time you know how much we like value in lines and bet numbers not teams. That is clearly the case in tonight’s game between the Raptors and Celtics. Game 1 of this series had a Total set by the oddsmakers of 217.5 which means the line has dropped a full 7.5 points over the course of five games. Granted all five have stayed below the Total but now that the number is this low, we must play Over. Average NBA games this season finished with roughly 223 points per game and Playoff games are around 220PPG. Our math model projects 218 Total points between these two teams which is what the Total was in Games 1 and 2. The Raptors are the 2nd fastest playoff team left behind only the Lakers in possessions per game and Boston is playing faster in this round than they did in the first. Both teams will get to 105 or better in this one and the game goes Over the Total. |
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09-08-20 | Heat -3 v. Bucks | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30PM ET |
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09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 219 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 219 Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers, 9PM ET VALUE! This line is significantly lower than the Total in Game 2 of 224 and we prefer to put ourselves on the side of Vegas than the Public. In Game 1 the Clippers put up 120 points and took advantage of a huge weakness of the Nuggets defense and that is on the interior where they do not have a rim protector. The Clippers scored 66-points in the paint in Game 1 and shot 57% as a result. In Game 2 though the Clippers could not buy a bucket as they hit just 41% of their field goal attempts and 28% from beyond the 3-point line. Kawhi Leonard really struggled from the floor going 4 of 17, scoring just 13-points. The Clippers owned the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA this regular season at 1.140PPP but they have been better in the post season at 1.210PPP. Granted, the Clippers stellar offensive numbers came against the Mavericks BUT the Mavs D has been better than Denver’s since the restart. The Nuggets were 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season but in the Bubble and Playoffs they have been far from good. The Nuggets have the worst DEFF in the playoffs, so the Clippers are going to score here without having to play up-tempo. Denver had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series, but fatigue certainly played a big part in that. In Game 2 the Nuggets put up 110 total points and hit 45% from the field. Denver hoisted forty 3-pointers and hit 38% from beyond the arc. The Nuggets offense is 3rd in offensive efficiency in the Playoffs and have capable scorers in Jokic and Murray. At halftime of Game 2 these two teams combined for 128 Total points and were on pace to total 256 before two horrible shooting quarters in the 3rd and 4th. With the added value and dip in the number we will be OVER here. |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP but against Houston in Game 1 of this series they hit just 42% of their FG attempts and scored 97-points. LeBron looked completely disinterested and the team couldn’t buy a 3-pointer as they hit 11 of 38 from beyond the arc. Off that horrible showing the Lakers will rebound here with a much better effort. Los Angeles was 12-8 SU off a loss this season with 8 of those wins coming on the road which is essentially the case here in the Bubble. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season and have been better in the Playoffs allowing just 1.059 points per possession. Houston surprisingly played really well in the opener after a grueling 7-game series against the Thunder, but the numbers suggest they don’t play as well in this Game 2. Houston allowed 115PPG in the regular season this year which was 22nd out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Rockets allowed 50PPG in the paint this season which ranked them 23rd in the league while the Lakers were 2nd in the league in scoring in the paint at over 52PPG. Los Angeles will look to pound the ball inside against the Rockets in Game 2 and take advantage of a front line of Davis, McGee and Howard. Frank Vogel is a great coach and will adjust here including LeBron on the block a few times and take advantage of his size in the post. Lakers bounce back here with a double-digit win. |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 221.5 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 221.5 Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers, 9PM ET We feel the Clippers have identified a huge weakness of the Nuggets defense and that’s on the interior where they do not have a rim protector. The Clippers scored 66-points in the paint in Game 1 and look for Kawhi and company to continue to attack the Nuggets vulnerable defense. The Clippers owned the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA this regular season at 1.140PPP but they have been better in the post season at 1.210PPP. Granted, the Clippers stellar offensive numbers came against the Mavericks BUT the Mavs D has been better than Denver’s since the restart. The Nuggets were 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season but in the Bubble and Playoffs they have been far from good. The Nuggets have the worst DEFF in the playoffs, so the Clippers are going to score here without having to play up-tempo. Denver had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series, but fatigue certainly played a big part in that and we expect a much better showing in Game 2. The Nuggets offense is 3rd in offensive efficiency in the Playoffs and have capable scorers in Jokic and Murray. In the last two regular season meetings between these two teams they combined for 235 points in each game. Denver will score more than 100 in Game 2 and The Clippers are getting to 120+ so this game goes Over rather easily. |
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09-04-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET This Game 1 situation is remarkably like the Clipper/Nuggets series as this Los Angeles team has been off since Aug 29th while the Rockets are off a grueling 7-game series with OKC and have little in the tank for this game. The Lakers took care of a Portland team that was in the same boat as the Rockets are now, exhausted and off a demanding series of games, so do not expect a close game in this opener. After losing Game 1 versus Portland the Lakers ripped off 4 straight wins by 23, 8, 20 and 9-points. Houston was taken to seven games against OKC and needed a last second defensive play (yes, I said defensive) from James Harden to preserve the win. Off that win expect a letdown here. There was some concern about the Lakers offense in the NBA restart as they had the second worst offensive efficiency numbers in the 8 Bubble games, but the Playoffs have been a different story. In the series against the Blazers the Lakers averaged 1.149 points per possession which is 5th among playoff teams and better than their regular season numbers of 1.120PPP. The Lakers had the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the regular season while Houston was 14th but the Rockets have been better in the restart. LA is 14-6 SU this season when playing with 2+ days rest while the Rockets are 6-9 SU when at a disadvantage in rest and those losses have come by an average of -7.1PPG. The rested Lakers have the edge in this opener and our model predicts a 14-point win. |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET At first glance you would think this number is way too high but in reality, it isn’t, especially given the circumstances. The Nuggets are in a tough spot here having just played a physically and mentally draining 7-game series against the Jazz. Denver was down 1-3 to Utah, then won three in a row which were all tight games. Jamal Murray was sensational in the series with 50, 42, 50 and 17 points in the final four games but he also logged over 40 minutes in each of those. Nuggets All-Star center Jokic also played more than his season average in minutes in the series and now on one day rest they face a Clippers team that has been off since Sunday. After a small scare in the first few gams of their series against the Mavs the Clippers took care of business by winning Games 5 and 6 by 43 and 14 points, respectively. In fact, their four wins over Dallas all came by 8 or more points which is obviously close to tonight’s spread. The Clippers are solid when they have a rest advantage over their opponents with a 28-18 SU record the past two seasons. How important is rest you ask? There are only 10 teams in the league that do not have winning records when playing with two or more days rest the past two seasons. These two teams met in the Bubble with the Clippers winning by 13. During the regular season L.A. had two more victories over Denver, each by double-digits (29 & 10). These two teams have remarkably similar numbers offensively in the Bubble and Playoffs, but the Clippers hold a HUGE advantage defensively where the Nuggets rank dead last in defensive efficiency ratings in both the Playoffs and Bubble. |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Milwaukee Bucks -5 over Miami Heat, 6:30PM ET The computers and numbers have us on the Bucks tonight in a bounce back situation, off a loss and desperate for a win. Milwaukee has been “money” off a loss with a 13-5 SU record this season and a 35-9 SU run since the start of 2018. In the last two years when coming off a loss the Bucks average margin of victory is +10.7PPG and they cover the spread by nearly +3PPG. Both teams shot well in the opener, but the Heat were plus +5 in offensive rebounds and had 3 less turnovers. Jimmy Butler had a huge game for Miami with 40-points on 13 of 20 shooting while making 12 of 13 free throw attempts. League MVP could not match those numbers 18-points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists but turned it over 6 times and missed 8 free throws. The Greek Freak is a fierce competitor and will bounce back here with a huge stat line in Game 2. Last year in the playoffs in a similar situation the Bucks lost the first game of the series against the Boston Celtics then bounced back in Game 2 to win by 21-points. In the first round against Orlando the Bucks lost Game 1 then beat the Magic by 15 in the second game. Milwaukee was the number one or best defensive efficiency team in the NBA in the regular season allowing just 1.029 points per possession and Miami produced 1.150PPG in Game 1 which was an aberration based on season statistics. Expect a return to normal here and the Bucks get a double-digit win in Game 2. |
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09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 216.5 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Over 216.5 Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors, 5:30PM ET These two rivals met in the Bubble prior to the Playoffs and Vegas set a Total of 222.5 and now we have a number drastically lower for Game 2. Game 1 stayed below the number yet the oddsmakers opened this number slightly higher than the opening Total for Game 1. There were a few anomalies in the opener and most glaring was the Raptors poor shooting. Toronto hit just 37% of their FG attempts and 25% (10 of 40) from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than the Raps season averages of 45.8% (FG%) and 37.5% which was the 5th best 3-Point percentage in the NBA. Toronto was 14th in offensive efficiency this season averaging 1.112 points per possession. In Game 1 against Boston the Raptors averaged .880 points per possession which is INSANELY low. To put that in perspective the .880PPP would be last in the NBA this season by a wide margin as Golden State was last at 1.052PPP. Boston OEFF in Game 1 was also slightly lower than their season average so expect an improvement in Game 2. It is no secret the Bubble games have been higher scoring as the smaller confines make for better shooting sightlines, which has led to higher scoring games. Before the Playoffs started the games in the restart averaged 231 total points. Thus far in the Playoffs games are averaging 225PPG. In the regular season NBA games averaged just over 222 total points so you can see for yourself this number is set below an average NBA outcome. The Celtics were the 4th most efficient offense in the NBA this season while Toronto was 14th but the Raptors OEFF numbers in the first round were fantastic at 1.220PPP. In the Bubble games the Raptors average offensive possession was just 13.7 seconds which was 6th fastest in the restart. Boston’s average offensive possession was 14.1 seconds which was 13th. The total on this game is based heavily on the fact that these two teams are two of the better in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings (Raptors 2nd, Celtics 4th) but the number has been over-adjusted according to our math models. |
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08-31-20 | Rockets -5 v. Thunder | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET With this being an elimination game, you would expect most bettors to back the Thunder and the dog here but not us. The Rockets are a completely different team when they have dynamic guard Russell Westbrook in the lineup, and even though his numbers were not significant in the Rockets Game 4 win, he still had an impact. Westbrook’s ability to get to the rim and in driving lanes forces defenders in slightly instead of being in the gaps which allows Rocket shooters another split second to get a shot off. Expect more minutes and production from Westbrook tonight against the Thunder. OKC thought they found a way to contain James Harden with rookie Luguentz Dort defending him in Games 3 & 4 and causing problems for the Rockets scoring machine. In Game 5 the Rockets adjusted, hit Dort with better angles on screens which freed up Hardin who scored 31-points on just 15 shots. Dort then proved to be a liability on the offensive end of the floor where he missed 13 of 16 field goal attempts. The Rockets have been significantly better defensively in the playoffs and the Bubble allowing less points per possession than they did during the regular season while maintaining an offensive efficiency that is averaging 1.118PPP against OKC. We recognize the Thunder have solid support as an underdog and when off a loss, but the Rockets have too many scoring options for the Thunder to overcome. |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 216 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Over 216 Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors, 1PM ET Sunday The total on this game is based heavily on the fact that these two teams are two of the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings (Raptors 2nd, Celtics 4th) but the number has been over-adjusted according to our math models. These two rivals met in the Bubble w/Total set by Vegas of 222.5 and now we have a number drastically lower for Game 1. Not to mention, the Bubble game finished with 222 total points which gets us the cash here. In the last eight meetings these two teams have combined for 216 or more points five times, AND the other three games stayed below 216 total points by the sum of 9-points. It’s no secret the Bubble games have been higher scoring as the smaller confines make for better shooting sightlines, which has led to higher scoring games. Before the Playoffs started the games in the restart averaged 231 total points. Thus far in the Playoffs games are averaging 225PPG. In the regular season NBA games averaged just over 222 total points so you can see for yourself this number is set below an average NBA outcome. Neither of these two teams were fast in terms of pace of play during the regular season but in the Bubble games they both averaged about 3 more possessions per game, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but is. The Celtics were the 4th most efficient offense in the NBA this season while Toronto was 14th but the Raptors OEFF numbers in the first round were fantastic at 1.220PPP. This game gets into the 228 range rather easily. |
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08-29-20 | Magic +13.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic +13.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 3:30 PM ET - Can the Magic win this game today? Sure, but will they, no. They can however cover the spread with the generous number. After winning Game #1 the Magic have been beaten by the Bucks by 15, 14 and 15 points. In the last game of this series the Bucks won by 15-points but needed to outscore the Magic by 12 in the 4th quarter. Milwaukee had the best overall average margin of victory this season at +10.1PPG which is a tremendous number, but it is still not enough to cover this spread. In the eight Bubble “regular” season games the Bucks average point differential was 0.3PPG and in this series their MOV is 8PPG. Orlando had a negative point differential of minus -1PPG and only 14 of their 43 losses this season have been by 15 or more points. The Bucks haven’t been great as a double-digit favorite this season with an 18-19 ATS record and given the circumstances they could be resting starters late in this game which would make for a potential back-door cover. Grab the points with Orlando. |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET The Clippers are off of a poor showing and a last second loss in Game 4 to the Mavs and are now tied 2-2 in this first round series. NOBODY has been better than the Clippers when coming off a loss this season with a 21-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). The Mavericks have played well in the series and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. His buzzer beating step back 3-pointer is only the start of his legendary status in the NBA for years to come. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 36% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 9 of their last ten when coming off a loss. We are betting Paul George finally shows up and Kawhi Leonard shoulders the burden in this crucial game for the franchise. |
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08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat -6 | Top | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat -6 over Indiana Pacers, 6:30PM ET Sometimes when it looks like two even teams on paper and all the stats are equal, but one team continues to win, it is a match up issue. That is clearly the case in this series as the Heat have beaten the Pacers three straight and four of five in the Bubble. The only game the Pacers won was a throw away game as the seedings were set. Miami has a +10PPG margin in the three wins and we cannot imagine them not winning again by double-digits in this elimination game. Going back before the break the Heat are 6-1 SU this season against the Pacers, covering five of the seven. Miami holds edges in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in this series and have gotten balanced scoring throughout this first round match up. In Game #3 the Heat had four players score 20+ points, six in double-digits. Indiana doesn’t have as many scoring options as Miami and just can’t keep pace with the Heat. If it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. Heat win again. |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +3.5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET If you’ve been following ASA for any length of time then you know we are numbers bettors not teams bettors which has us on Denver here today. With no home court advantage and all the games being played on a neutral court the lines shouldn’t fluctuate too much from game to game but this series has seen a significant move. The Nuggets were favored by -4.5 points in Game 1 of this series but are now a 3-point dog here. That’s a huge swing in value and has us on Denver here. The Nuggets were blown out in Game 3 and now trail 1-2 in this series which makes this a desperate situation for Denver. Denver has been fantastic when coming off a loss this season with a 19-9 SU record and are 39-23 SU in that role the past two years. Since the restart the Jazz have an average point differential of minus -3.1PPG which is barely better than the Nuggets -4.8PPG and clearly not a big enough separation to cover this spread. The Dog has covered 4 of the last six in this rivalry. Grab the points! |
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08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Under 226 Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic, 1PM ET The Magic have done a great job controlling the tempo or pace in the first two games as it is their only option to win games against the Bucks. In the two games the combined field goal attempts for both teams is 179 and 178 which is barely above league average of 177. Let us not forget the Bucks are the fastest paced team in the league at 105.1 possessions per game while the Magic are 25th at 98.6. In this series the Magic came out in Game 1 and filled it up with 122 points on 49% shooting from the field overall, 39% from 3-point range and 95% from the stripe. In Game #2 the Bucks top rated defensive efficiency stepped up and limited the Magic to just 35% shooting from the field and 21% from beyond the arc. That was more inline with the Magic’s season stats as they were 27th in the league in team FG% at 44.3% and 23rd in offensive efficiency. In other words, the Magic will struggle to score again here and do their best to slow the tempo. Milwaukee broke out a little in Game 2 but one of the stories of all the Bubble games has been the struggles of the Bucks offense. Milwaukee was 8th best in the league in offensive efficiency this season but drop to 13th of 22 teams that played in the restart. Orlando is a top 10 defensive efficiency unit and match up well with Milwaukee. These two teams have met six times this season and only one (Game 1 when Orlando shot ridiculously well) has ended with more than 226 total points. |
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08-21-20 | Clippers -5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9PM ET All the experts and oddsmakers had the Clippers as one of the three favorites along with the Bucks and Lakers to win it all in 2020 and they were not wrong. This team has been built for a Championship and now they are off a poor showing and a loss in Game 2 to the Mavs. That’s very important for our wager today as the Clippers are the BEST team in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 20-3 SU record and an average margin of victory of +15.3PPG (covering games by 7.7PPG). Great players respond when their egos have been bruised which will be the case Friday for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard who didn’t expect to be 1-1 in this series right now. The Mavericks played well in the first two games and Luka Doncic is going to be next year’s MVP and may win that award multiple years. The Mavs shot extremely well by making 50% of their FG attempts and 45% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are more of an aberration than a norm as the Mavs were 15th in the league in team field goal percentage on season and the Clippers had the 3rd best FG% “D” allowing 43.9% on the year. The Mavs are currently 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency but the Clippers are 2nd. Defensively though the Clippers rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks are 18th. We haven’t even mentioned the value in the line on this game as the Clippers have dropped a few points from the first two games. Lastly, the Clippers have covered 8 of their last nine when coming off a loss. Easy call with L.A. |
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08-20-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -6.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Thurs 9PM ET The Blazers captured Game 1 by 7-points winning 100-93 and now lead the series 1-0 which makes this a must win for the Lakers. The oddsmakers have fallen into the Blazer trap here and have posted a number that reflects public opinion of Portland. The Lakers offense in the Bubble has been horrendous and is showed again in Game 1 of this series when L.A. attempted 18 more field goals in the opener, had 5 more total rebounds and were +12 in offensive boards but still lost. The Lakers shot just 35% against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as Portland ranks 28th on the season in defensive efficiency ratings and has been worse in the Bubble allowing 1.209 points per possession. The Lakers made just 5 of 32 3-pointers in Game 1 and shot just 35% for the game which is drastically lower than their season average of 47.8% which was best in the NBA. In other words, let’s bet what the “norm” is instead of the abnormal results of Game 1. It was apparent to us as we watched the game how deliberate the Blazers were which was not how they played during the regular season (13th in pace of play). Portland was taxed physically and dictated a slower tempo with the Lakers knowing if they could keep it close, they have more playmakers at the end of the game and could steal a win. The fatigue of their pre-playoff run was obvious to us and will play a bigger part in this outcome. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers have not been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 10-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. The Lakers Championship run hangs in the balance, and you can bet LeBron and AD show up here. |
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08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217 | Top | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
ASA Top Play 10* on: Over 217 Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets, Weds 4PM ET Game 1 between these two teams could not have been much better as had everything a basketball fan wants in a contest. Denver won by 10-points, but it took overtime and was very close throughout. Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell had a monster game with 57-points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists but it wasn’t enough to offset the 36/5/9 put up by Jamal Murray and the 29/10/3 by Jokic for Denver. Of course, for our wager here the overtime period should not be factored into our thinking and influence our Over bet. In Game 1 these two teams combined for 220 total points in regulation which is enough to cash our ticket in Game 2. Since the restart, games involving the Jazz have averaged 230 total points while the Nugget games have averaged 242-points (2 OT games have this numbers slightly inflated). In the regular season these two teams were two of the slower paced teams in the league, but they made up for it by being highly efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. Denver is 5th in the NBA this year in OEFF at 1.131 points per possession while Utah is 10th at 1.124PPP. Both teams shot well in Game 1 but that has been the norm in the Bubble with great sight lines and backdrops for shooters. This number is set below league average and value lies with the Over bet. |
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08-18-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Lakers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, Tues 8PM ET Noise! There has been a lot of noise surrounding the Blazers and their run in the Bubble to make the playoffs. There has also been a lot of talk about how poorly the Lakers have played in the restart and we are betting they’ve heard it and respond here. Let us start with the Blazers who expended a ton of energy to get here and played in several big, emotional games to capture the 8th seed. Damian Lillard has been sensational, and the Blazers offense has put up some impressive numbers in the Bubble but that changes here. The Lakers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rankings in the NBA allowing just 1.063 points per possession. That is significantly better than the Blazers defense that is 28th in the league in D.E.F.F. Much has been made of the Lakers struggle on the offensive end of the floor in the Bubble games as it’s been atrocious but on the entire season they are 11th in offensive efficiency and much better than they’ve showed in these meaningless 8-games which had no bearing on their seeding. The Lakers had the 5th best overall average point differential in the NBA this season at +5.8PPG while Portland was negative at minus -1.1PPG. The Lakers haven’t been great as a favorite, but the Blazers have been especially poor as a dog with a 9-20-1 ATS record this season when getting less than 10-points. This will be a statement game for the Lakers and we predict a double-digit win. |
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08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 230 | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: OVER 230 Dallas Mavericks vs. LA Clippers, Monday Aug 17th 9PM ET - We are extremely excited about this bet and expect an easy win by about the 8-minute mark of the 4th quarter. We mentioned this a few bets ago that scoring is up in the Bubble restart compared to the regular season prior to March 11th. The smaller confines offer a “shooters background” and scoring has gone up from 223 total points per game to 230PPG. In other words, we are asking for an average scoring output from these two teams in this setting when we have the 5th (Clippers) and 6th (Mavs) ranked offensive efficiency units in Bubble play squaring off. The Clippers have averaged 118PPG in the Bubble while the Mavs have averaged 123PPG. Granted, the Clippers have the 10th best defensive efficiency numbers in the restart but the Mavs have the 20th out of 22 teams. The Mavs are averaging more possessions per game in the Bubble and the Clippers are 8th in the league in pace of play at 101.5 possessions per game on the season. The Mavs have allowed 126 or more points in 6 of their eight Bubble games and are clearly not known for their defense. These two teams met in the restart and combined for 237 total points which will be on the lower end of today’s scoring. BET OVER! |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 233 | Top | 122-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 233 Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trailblazers, Saturday 2:30PM ET These same two teams met in the first game of the Bubble action and Vegas set a Total on that contest of 224 and now has a number that is 8.5-points more? That is an over-reaction to the Blazers scoring of late and offers us some tremendous value with an Under bet here. Portland expended a ton of energy to get to the 8th seed in the West and we cannot help but wonder how much they have emotionally and physically for this game. The Blazers defense has been horrendous in the Bubble games, but they have also faced 6 offenses that rank in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. Four of the teams they faced are top 9 in the NBA in points per game scoring, so it is understandable their defense wasn’t great in the restart. Memphis has played solid defense in the Bubble allowing just 1.088 points per possession which is 6th best in the restart games. But the Grizzlies have struggled to score in the Bubble with the 17th worst (out of 22) offensive efficiency numbers. Memphis failed to reach 100-points in two games in the restart and scored 107 or less in half of their Bubble games. We can’t ignore the value in this Over/Under and will have to bet UNDER! |
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08-14-20 | 76ers v. Rockets UNDER 230.5 | Top | 134-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 230.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs. Houston Rockets, 9PM ET These two teams are locked into their playoff position and will rest all their key players here to stay healthy for a deep post-season run. The 76ers will face the Celtics in the opening round next week while the Rockets get the OKC Thunder. In this meaningless game we don’t expect to see the starters for either team which means the scoring has to come from the reserves. Houston averages 118PP on the season but will be without Russell Westbrook here (injured) and his 27.2PPG and 7 assists per game. We would be shocked to see Harden here and his 34PPG so where will the Rockets scoring come from. Houston’s bench is the 28th lowest scoring unit in the NBA this season, ahead of only Boston and Portland. The Rockets scoring is down in the Bubble as their average points per possession has dipped from 1.132PPP to 1.081PPP. Houston has scored 105 or less points in 3 of their last five games and their scoring average would be lower yet in the Bubble if it were not for a 153-scoring overtime output in the restart opener. Houston defense has been better though as they have the second-best defensive efficiency rating in Bubble games which is up from 11th during the regular season. Philly is in the same boat here as the Rockets with Ben Simmons out for the playoffs and Embiid beat up so why jeopardize having him on the floor tonight. The 76ers lack production from their bench with the 26th lowest scoring unit in the NBA. The Sixers defense gave up over 124PPG in five of their seven Bubble games but three of those contests came against 3 of the four highest scoring teams in the Bubble. Teams have been scoring more in the Bubble than during the regular season, but we can’t see these two benches putting up 230 or more combined points. BET UNDER! |
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08-13-20 | Mavs v. Suns -7 | Top | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Phoenix Suns -7 over Dallas Mavericks, 4PM ET How about the swing on the line in this matchup as these same two teams met earlier in the Bubble and the Mavericks were a 6-point favorite but are now a 7-point dog. But the situation for both teams is drastically different at this point in time as the Mavs are locked into the 7th seed and Phoenix still has a shot to get in. To put this as delicately as possible, Dallas would be stupid to play their Superstars here or other starters as health is key to make a long playoff run. We don’t expect to see Doncic or Porzingis for the Mavs against this red-hot Suns team Thursday. Phoenix is 7-0 in the Bubble and have played incredible basketball in the restart with Devon Booker leading the way. Phoenix has an average point differential of +11.3PPG in the Bubble which is the best overall number in the league and has won five of their seven games by 7 or more points. Are we betting a bad line here? No given the circumstances. |
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08-12-20 | Pacers v. Rockets -8 | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Houston Rockets -8 over Indiana Pacers, 4PM ET You know the old saying, “when something looks to good to be true, it isn’t”. That’s the case with this line on the Rockets vs. Pacers game as the line is much higher than it should be and is attracting public money on Indiana. In true contrarian fashion we will bet opposite and play on the Rockets. We feel the Rockets desperately want to hold on to the 4 or 5 seed and avoid the two Los Angeles teams and the red-hot Nuggets in the first round. A win here essentially locks up the 4/5 seed for Houston. The Rockets played yesterday and were embarrassed by the Spurs with James Harden on the bench. The NBA’s leading scorer is expected to suit up today for the Rockets and can literally carry this team like he’s done so often in the past. The Pacers have several starters listed as doubtful today with Turner, Oladipo, Brogdon questionable and TJ Warren listed as out. That tells us the Pacers aren’t as interested in this game as they are Friday’s against the Miami Heat who they will likely face in the first round of the Playoffs. The Rockets hold slight advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the Bubble games and will squeak out a double-digit win here. |
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08-11-20 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 233.5 | Top | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 233.5 Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2PM ET We like the Under in this day game between these two Texas rivals. Both have incentive to play here with the Rockets jockeying for seeding position and the Spurs fighting for a chance to get into the post-season for the 23rd straight year. In the Bubble games the Rockets defense has been much better than the regular season version as they have allowed just 1.076 points per possession in their five Bubble games compared to 1.100PPP they give up on the season. On the year the Rockets have been average in effective field goal percentage defense but in their last three games they are allowing just 49% EFG% shooting which is second best in the NBA over that 3-game span. The Rockets have given up 110, 97 and 112 points in their last three games. We do not see the Rockets putting up huge offensive numbers here without James Harden or Daniel House Jr. in the lineup. San Antonio is fighting for the 8th or 9th seed in the West and are essentially in a must win situation. That is a lot of pressure for a young team without their best offensive player LaMarcus Aldridge who did not come to the Bubble. San Antonio has some inflated scoring and defensive numbers in the Bubble with a pair of exceedingly high scoring games against Denver and Philly which has skewed this number higher than it should be. These two teams met twice in December and produced 216 and 268 total points. The 268-point game was an OT thriller and the two teams produced 38-points so in reality that game would have finished with less total points than today’s Total set by Vegas. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last nine meetings and we predict another Under here. |
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08-10-20 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Denver Nuggets +5.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET This is an interesting number considering how well Denver has looked in the Bubble games compared to how bad the Lakers have played. Let us examine this number a little closer. The Lakers were just favored by minus -5.5 points against the Pacers and Thunder in recent games and lost both to teams’ inferior to the current Nuggets. The Washington Wizards have not won a game in the Bubble and have been horrendous offensively with a 1.031 points per possession efficiency rating. Believe it or not, the Lakers have been WORSE than the Wizards on the offensive end with an OEFF of .977PPP. That can’t be said about a Denver offense that is 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the five Bubble games at 1.176 points per possession. The Nuggets have gotten a huge scoring boost from Michael Porter Jr. who is averaging over 25PPG and 10RPG in the Bubble. They also got Jamal Murray back from injury who paid immediate dividends in the Nuggets win over Utah with 23-points, 12-rebounds and 8-assists. And we haven’t even gotten to Nikola Jokic who continues to play at a very high level. The Lakers are 2-4 SU in their six games in the restart and are mainly concerned about staying healthy for the playoffs. The Lakers season point differential is +6.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. In the Bubble games they have a negative differential of -7.2PPG second to last of the teams still playing. This Denver team is going to be a dangerous out in the Playoffs and the Lakers just aren’t engaged at this point in time. Easy call with the Underdog here. |
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08-09-20 | Spurs +3 v. Pelicans | Top | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on San Antonio Spurs +3 over New Orleans Pelicans, 3:00PM ET We like the Spurs in this extremely important game for both teams as they battle for a spot in the Western Conference playoffs. San Antonio has gone to a small-ball lineup which has resulted in a 3-2 start in the Bubble games. The Spurs were also extremely competitive in both losses, getting beat by Denver by 6-points and Philadelphia by 2. San Antonio was just a 2-point dog to the red-hot Nuggets and are now getting 3-points from a struggling Pelicans team. New Orleans is 2-3 SU in the Bubble games and one of the wins came via the Wizards who have a negative differential in the Bubble of -10.5PPG. The Pels other win was against a struggling Memphis team that is 1-4 in the restart. In the last five games for each team the Spurs have a positive point differential of +2.2PPG while the Pelicans are negative at minus -3.8PPG. San Antonio has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the restart, which is significantly better than the Pelicans who are averaging 1.089 points per possession which is 17th among the Bubble teams. The Spurs were +3.5-points in New Orleans in the regular season and won by 4-points. Now they are getting essentially the same number on a neutral floor and playing better than they were back in January. Easy call with the underdog here. |
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08-08-20 | Bucks v. Mavs +5 | Top | 132-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on Dallas Mavericks +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30PM ET The line on this game is telling you who to bet as the number is not what it should be. Milwaukee was just favored by -9.5 over a hot Miami team, -19 against the Nets and even minus 5 against Houston and are now laying -5.5 to the Mavericks? That’s an indicator that Vegas knows something we don’t so we will be betting Dallas plus the points. The Mavs have locked up a playoff berth but can also move up in the standings and avoid a possible first round match up with a Los Angeles team. Milwaukee struggled in a pair of losses to Houston and Brooklyn then rebounded with a big win over Miami so the sense of urgency to win has subsided for the Bucks off that win and having the #1 seed clinched in the East. Milwaukee is just 3-7 ATS their last ten games against the spread. Dallas is 1-3 SU in the four Bubble games but two of those losses were by 4 or less points. The Mavs are -7-1 ATS their last 9-games as a dog of 5 or more points. Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee rests starters here and the Mavs win outright. |
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08-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -3 | Top | 122-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET We like the Raptors here minus the short number as they have been much better defensively than the Celtics in the Bubble. Toronto is allowing just .967 points per possession which is best in the league since the restart, which is not a surprise considering they are 2nd overall in the league in D.E.F.F. On the season the Celtics are 5th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.073PPP, but in the Bubble they are giving up 1.154PPP which ranks them 16th out of 22 teams. Boston has had some gaudy offensive numbers in their four games since the restart and are coming off a 149-point outburst against the Nets, and they put up 128 two games ago against the Blazers. Those teams are in the bottom four of the current 22-team league in the Bubble in defensive efficiency ratings. Against Miami and Milwaukee (similar to Toronto in terms of defense) the Celtics offense wasn’t nearly as impressive in two losses. The Raptors have the best overall point differential in the restart at +9.7PPG and are 3-0. Prior to the break the Raptors had won four games making this a 7-game winning streak so why wouldn’t we back them here at this price. The Celtics are expecting Kemba Walker back for this game but that can be a negative too as flow and timing will be disrupted. Play Toronto here. |
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08-06-20 | Clippers -4 v. Mavs | Top | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: LA Clippers -4 over Dallas Mavericks 6:30PM ET This could be a potential first round matchup in the playoffs and we expect the LA Clippers to make a statement in this contest. We like backing elite NBA teams when they are off a loss which is the case here after the Clippers lost last time out to the Suns. Both teams are a disappointing 1-2 SU in the restart but the Mavs are off their first win over a struggling Kings team while the Clippers are off a loss as we mentioned before. Luka had a monster game against the Kings with a plus 30/20/10 game but that was against a Kings defense that isn’t nearly as good as this Clippers unit that allows just 1.073 points per possession which is 4th best in the NBA. Lou Williams will be back in the lineup for the Clippers to provide scoring off the bench and give the Clippers that added advantage they’ve been missing. The Clippers are 16-5 ATS off a loss this season with an average winning margin of 15.4PPG and 41-17 SU since 2018 when coming off a loss winning those games by 6.6PPG. Los Angeles has covered 4 of the last five meetings including a win most recently in Dallas by 3-points without Paul George. Lay the points with the Clippers. |
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08-05-20 | Raptors v. Magic UNDER 223 | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 223 Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic, 8PM ET The Magic are playing without rest today so fatigue could certainly be an issue on the offensive end of the floor against a great defensive team like the Raptors. Orlando got off to a great start in the Bubble by producing 128 and 132 points in wins over the Nets and Kings and shot over 52% in those two games. Then yesterday they faced a Pacers team that plays defense (6th in defensive efficiency) and struggled to score 109 points. Today the Magic face a Raptors team that is 2nd in the NBA in D.E.F.F. allowing just 1.050 points per possession. In two games in the Bubble the Raptors have given up just 92-points and 103-points to the Heat and Lakers who are both better statistically than the Magic offensively. Orlando is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and will provide a stiff challenge for the Raptors on that end of the floor. Neither team likes to play fast as Toronto is barely above league average in pace of play while the Magic are well below average, ranking 26th in the NBA at 98.4 possessions per game. Toronto has a bigger game on deck against the Celtics and may not be as engaged versus the Magic tonight. In the 3 meetings earlier this season these two teams combined for 199, 210 and 173 total points. The bet here is UNDER! |
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08-04-20 | Magic -111 v. Pacers | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 10* top play on: Orlando Magic (-) over Indiana Pacers, 6PM ET The Magic were exceptionally good to us the other night in their blowout win over Sacramento and we will come right back with a bet on them again here. The Magic were up 35 after 3-quarters against the Kings and were able to play the entire bench most of the 4th quarter. A rested Magic team catch a Pacers team off a game yesterday and playing their 3rd in four days. Indiana had all five starters log over 33 minutes Monday and have not been a good team without rest this year at 2-6 ATS, 3-5 SU record. Going back further we find the Pacers are 23-30 SU when playing the second night of a back-to-back with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. The Pacers have beaten the Magic twice already this season but that was back in November and Orlando is playing much better now. The Magic have won five in a row and covered 9 of their last ten games dating back to the pre-Covid break and have shot over 52% in both games in the Bubble. These two teams are similar in several key statistical categories, but the Magic have elevated their game to another level in the re-start. Bet Orlando. |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* top play on: New Orleans Pelicans (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 6:30PM ET - This is a critical game for both teams who are fighting for a playoff berth in the West and are 0-2 in the NBA re-start. Memphis is coming off a game yesterday against a big game versus the Spurs and will be un-rested in this matchup. The Grizzlies have been particularly good against the spread in this scheduling situation but that was before the long layoff. The Pelicans lost their opener to the Jazz in a close game then allowed the Clippers to make 25 of 47 three-pointers in a 23-point loss. These two teams are eerily similar in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and point differential. New Orleans was on a 6-1 ATS run on the road leading up to the Covid break which is significant considering these games in the bubble are essentially road games (neutral) for both teams. Conversely, the Grizz were 3-6 ATS their last nine road games and the three covers were against some of the league’s worst teams at Brooklyn, at Atlanta and at Washington. These two teams met in January and the Pelicans won by a combined 38-points and shot well in both games by hitting over 48% from the field. When it comes to shooting the long ball, the Pelicans shoot it better and defend it better than the Grizzlies do and that will be a huge factor in this outcome. Lay the points in a Pelicans double-digit win. |
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08-02-20 | Kings v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 116-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Orlando Magic (-) over Sacramento Kings, 6PM ET Orlando went into the Covid-19 break with an 8-4 SU record their last twelve games and had covered 8 of their last nine games. In their first game of the restart they handled the Nets 128-118, but it could have been much worse as they led by as many of 30-points in the game at one point. The Magic had a great shooting night at 53% from the field, 35% from beyond the arc and 89% from the FT line. Orlando averaged just 106.7PPG on the season but put together a great performance Thursday and we expect that trend to continue here against the Kings. Sacramento is the 20th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.118 points per possession. The Kings defense did not show up against the Spurs in the opener when they allowed San Antonio to shoot 53% from the field, 44% from beyond the 3-point line. The big advantage the Magic have here is their defense that is 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and they will put the clamps on the Kings offensive. The Magic have 8 straight covers on the road or neutral floors and are the bet in this match up. |
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08-01-20 | Jazz +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-110 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Utah Jazz +1.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 3:30PM ET This is an interesting line with several solid indicators to put us on the Jazz in this match up. Everyone just watched the Jazz play an extremely poor game against the Pelicans and don’t want anything to do with Utah here. We do! The Jazz turned it over 20 times in the opener against the Pelicans and shot just 24% from beyond the arc. We are betting we see the Jazz shoot it much better tonight considering they were the second best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.1% and turn it over on average 15 times per game. We also like the advantage the Jazz have with a game under their belt in this unusual environment. Utah is slightly better than the Thunder in average point differential this season (+3.2PPG vs. 2.5PPG), 9th in offensive efficiency compared to 14th for OKC and both are essentially even in defensive efficiency allowing 1.092 points per possession. Utah got balanced scoring with six players in double-digits, three of which were 20 plus. We like OKC, especially their road numbers but this situation clearly favors a Jazz team that have covered 7-straight as a Dog. Bet the Jazz in this one. |
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07-31-20 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 135-140 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Portland Trailblazers (-) over Memphis Grizzlies, 4PM ET In this day game showdown, we like the Blazers minus the short number. After a disappointing season, the Blazers have a great opportunity to right the ship in this 8-game mini-series and nab the 8 seed in the West. Standing in Portland’s way is the Memphis Grizzlies who currently hold the 8th seed in the West and a 3 ½ game lead over the Blazers. Portland will have the best player on the floor in Dame Lillard along with a host of veteran talent that has a ton of playoff experience. The Blazers can get scoring from several players on the roster including Carmelo Anthony and CJ McCollum along with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from injury. Memphis has an incredibly young roster and rising star in Ja Morant but the pressure in this 8-game season will be much more than the regular season games. Portland was much better in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.128 points per possession which is 7th best in the league. Memphis is 20th in O.E.F.F. at 1.094PPP. The Grizz hold the advantage on the defensive end of the court ranking 16th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Blazers are 27th. The key here will come down to 3-point shooting and the Blazers hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting from beyond the arc. Portland is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the league at 37.2% while Memphis is 22nd in defensive 3-point FG percentage. The Blazers have a roster full of veterans that have played in big games and this second chance to save their season will have them prepared and focused. |
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07-30-20 | Jazz +2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* top play on: Utah Jazz +2.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, Thursday 6:30PM ET The wrong team is favored here as the number is set according to public perception which is that the Pelicans must win to get into the Playoffs. That is correct but the Jazz also have something to play for as they currently sit 4th in the West but could fall all the way to 7th which would mean a first round matchup with the Clippers or Nuggets. In this match-up we have the better overall team getting points so why wouldn’t we take Utah. The Jazz had the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating prior to the break at 1.12 points scored per possession, New Orleans was 15th in O.E.F.F. on the season. There was a much wider margin when it comes to defense between these two teams as the Jazz were 10th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans were 21st allowing 1.11 points per possession. The Jazz were a much better road team on the season too with a 20-13 SU away record and an average margin of victory of 2.0PPG. Utah had the second-best offensive efficiency rating when playing on the road in the NBA. New Orleans had a losing road record on the season at 15-17 SU with a negative differential of -2.8PPG. Obviously, the reason we make the road comparisons is because there is no home court advantage in the Bubble NBA the rest of this season. All three regular season meetings between these two teams were close with Utah winning two of the three and we’ll predict another close Jazz win here. |
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03-11-20 | North Carolina -3 v. Syracuse | Top | 53-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Syracuse, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET We were on UNC yesterday and picked up an easy win as the routed Va Tech. We like the Heels again for many of the same reasons we stated yesterday. This is a very talented team that simply had a poor season. They have new life now with a shot to make the NCAA tourney and we felt they play as they’d play well and they did. UNC is on a nice roll right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming @ Duke in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. Much of their late season success is because this team is finally fully healthy. Their top players, Cole Anthony, missed 11 games due injury. Their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Robinson, also missed time because of an injury and these two were rarely on the court at the same time. Now they are healthy and in yesterday’s win over the Hokies they combined for 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists. They were also both healthy when the Tar Heels faced this Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome late in the season. UNC rolled to an easy 92-79 win in that game and it was the home finale for the Orange. North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and that showed last night as they gathered a huge 45 boards to just 30 for VT. They were +9 on the glass @ Syracuse gathering 40% of their misses in that game in the Dome. We see nothing changing here as the Cuse is the worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC and 329th nationally. Add that to the fact that UNC is starting to play very well offensively averaging 85 PPG, 48% shooting, and 42% from 3 over their last 5 games while scoring more than 1.10 PPP in 4 of those 5 games, and it will be very tough for Syracuse to stay in this one. The Orange had 10 ACC wins, however 6 of those came against the 4 lowest rated teams in the league (BC twice, Pitt twice, Wake, and Va Tech). They are heading in the opposite direction losing 7 of their last 11 including a setback vs Miami FL (7-13 in the ACC) despite the Canes playing without their leading scorer. UNC already proved they could handle Syracuse and that was on the road. Now on a neutral court where the Heels were able to get comfortable playing yesterday (@ UNC Greensboro) we give them a big advantage here. North Carolina remains very dangerous and they move on with another win. |
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03-11-20 | Fordham v. George Washington UNDER 122.5 | Top | 72-52 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Under 122.5 Points - Fordham vs George Washington, Wed at 3:30 PM ET These two teams have met twice this year and scored 115 & 113 points. Those 2 meetings were at small home courts and this one is at a large NBA arena (Brooklyn Nets) which should cause even more problems for the offenses. In their 2 games these teams made 18, 19, 20, and 22 field goals which is extremely low. They combined to shoot just 37% and averaged only 52 field goal attempts per game. That parallels what they’ve done this season as these teams simply don’t get many shots off (Fordham is 231st in FG attempt rate & GW is 253rd). When they do get shots up they aren’t very accurate shooting teams. Fordham is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation making only 37% (346th out of 351) and George Washington isn’t great hitting 43% (181st nationally). Neither team gets to the FT line very often (Fordham is 342nd in FT attempt rate & GW is 263rd in that category) and when they do neither shoots above 70%. Fordham’s defense is very good ranking 85th in defensive efficiency, 75th in defensive FG% and 54th in 3-point defense. GW’s defense is a notch or two behind Fordham, however they have proven they can hold this bad Ram’s offense in check in their 2 meetings this season. There are only 2 teams in the nation that score fewer points than Fordham who averages 58 PPG and away from home just 55 PPG. The Colonials average only 65 PPG on the season (315th) and away from home just 61 PPG. On top of all that, these are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country (331st & 276th) and add that to the poor shooting we expect and this one should be very low scoring. Fordham is 10-19-1 to the UNDER this year while George Washington is 10-20-1 to the UNDER. With the line set at GW -3, it suggests a final score of somewhere in the range of 63-60. We don’t think either team reaches 60 in this game and well grab the UNDER here. |
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03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +11.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET We will go against the Lakers here and take Brooklyn plus the double digits. The Lakers are obviously coming off a pair of HUGE WINS over the Bucks and Clippers this weekend so don’t expect their focus or energy to be at a high level here against the lowly Nets. Not only are the Lakers off a couple big games but they also have the Rockets on deck. Brooklyn on the other hand will be amped to face LeBron and the Lakers. The Nets have a new coach in place now as they (Irving and Durant) recently decided to fire Kenny Atkinson and temporarily replace him with assistant Jacque Vaughn. The Nets have won two straight and three of their last four games, which includes a win at Boston. Brooklyn has cashed in 5 of their last six as an underdog and are a very attractive play here given the circumstances. As we already mentioned the Lakers are off two big games but in reality, it’s five straight as they also hosted Philly, went to New Orleans and played at Memphis. L.A. is 12-11 ATS as a double-digit chalk this season, 8-8 ATS when laying 11 or more points. The Lakers average winning margin at home this season is +9.7PPG which isn’t enough to get the money here. Despite the Nets 11-20 SU road record their average road differential of minus -3.1PPG is 18th in the NBA and slightly below league average of -2.7PPG. The Nets have been a double-digit dog just one time this season and this line is clearly an over-adjustment by the Lakers recent success. Easy call here with the puppy! |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -2.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET UNC finished with a 6-14 ACC record which was their worst mark since 2010. This is obviously a program that is used to winning as they’ve averaged 13 ACC wins over the previous 9 seasons leading into this year. They have talent, including a lottery pick in PG Anthony, who is back after missing much of the season. We think the Heels are a dangerous team right now for that reason. It’s a new season and if the win the ACC tourney they go to the NCAA tourney. New life for this team. They were playing well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4 with their only loss @ Duke over the weekend. UNC lost that game by 13 but it was a 2-point game with under 10 minutes remaining. This team was playing their best basketball of the season heading into Saturday’s game @ Duke as over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 80 PPG shooting 47% overall and 37% from deep. Anthony, one of the best players in the country, missed 11 games from December 15th through the end of January. Even though he’s a freshman, he should be fresh for this tourney. Not only did Anthony miss time but Brandon Robinson, the Heels 3rd leading scorer, also missed a number of games this year including 4 straight between Feb 3rd and Feb 11th. Both are back and healthy. Since mid December, those 2 players have started and played together in only 6 games because of their injuries. This is a full strength North Carolina team that was simply haven’t seen for much of the season. Virginia Tech is an extremely young team with 5 freshmen in their top 7 including 3 starters. Many times freshmen can struggle late in the year because it’s such a long season and a grind they are not used to. We’ve seen that with the Hokies who’ve only won 2 of their last 12 games with those freshmen playing significant minutes. This will be VT’s 4th game in the last 10 days with 3 of those coming on the road, including a loss @ Notre Dame just a few days ago (Saturday). These two met once this season with Tech winning at home in OT 79-77. The Tar Heels were very short handed for that game with both Anthony & Robinson out and still took the Hokieks to OT on the road. UNC had some stinkers this year but for the most part they were competitive in their losses. Six of their last nine losses have come by 6 points or less and that includes games vs Duke (lost on OT at home), Virginia (lost by 2) and FSU (lost by 6 on the road). We’ve got a strong feeling we’ll see a very solid UNC team on Tuesday night as they enter a new season where everyone is 0-0. Lay the points with the Tar Heels. |
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03-09-20 | Green Bay +5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UW Green Bay +5 over Northern Kentucky, Monday at 9:30 PM ET The Final 4 of the Horizon League tourney is being played in Indianapolis at IUPUI’s home court. This game has the #2 seed Northern Kentucky facing the #3 seed UW Green Bay. We really like how UWGB is playing coming into this game winning 7 of their last 9 games. That includes a win last Thursday in the opening round of this tourney as they topped Oakland in Green Bay by a final score of 78-63. Northern Kentucky had a bye and is playing their first game in this tourney. We think that absolutely favors Green Bay. They are playing well and sometimes a long layoff can be bad for a team. The Phoenix played at home to end the regular season on Saturday, Feb 29th. They followed that up with the win on Thursday we talked about above and now play tonight. So plenty of rest between games while still playing. NKU, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game period since Saturday, Feb 29th and that’s the only game they have played since February 22nd. Thus the Norse have played 1 game in the last 15 days. Not ideal in our opinion. These two split their regular season match ups with UWGB winning @ NKU by 14 and the Norse returning the favor and winning @ Green Bay by 9. The Phoenix are the much better shooting team in this match up. They shoot 45% on the season and they are the 27th best 3-point shooting team in the nation. NKU sits just inside 300th overall shooting (288th) and they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (298th). The defensive edge might go to Northern but if so it’s a slight one. UWGB has never been known as a great defensive team although they’ve flown under the radar on that end of the court this season. The rank 4th in eFG% defense, 4th in 2-point defense, and 3rd in the conference in 3-point defense. They’ve also locked down NKU in their 2 meetings this year holding them to 35% shooting. In their home loss to NKU, the difference was FT’s as the Norse attempted 27 freebies and made 20 while GB attempted 12 and made 7. In a 9-point game that was absolutely the difference. When the FT’s were basically even @ Northern Kentucky (16 attempts for GB / 13 attempts for NKU) the Phoenix won by double digits. The Norse finished 2nd in the conference 2 games ahead of GB but we think the Phoenix are the better team right now. Take the points. |
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03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
ASA play on: Clippers -2 over Lakers, 3:30PM ET We’ve said it from day 1 and will say it again, the Clippers are going to win the NBA Championship unless some unforeseen major injuries occur. LeBron couldn’t elevate his teammates last year so they added a top 5 players in the league in Anthony Davis along with several other top level vets. But the Clippers have outdone the Lakers with their own additions of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard then recently landed Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. The Clippers 2nd unit is the best in the NBA and could potentially be a playoff team by themselves. The Lakers are coming off a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks at home and had the perfect game plan to contain Giannis but the Clippers have to many options to control. The Clippers recent resume includes wins at Houston by 15, at a hot OKC team by 15 along with home wins over Philly and a blowout of Denver. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings and have a home average winning margin of +9.7PPG. LeBron can’t ‘bully’ his way to the rim in this game with Kawhi, Morris and Beverly defending him and we don’t feel the Lakers can adapt. Bet the Clippers as they are at full strength, have the better coach and roster. |
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03-08-20 | Valparaiso v. Bradley -3 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET Valpo is are now playing their 4th straight game in the MVC tourney and history says they won’t win this one. In fact, never has a MVC team played in the opening round on Thursday and won this tournament. In other words winning 4 games in 4 days has never happened here. The physical toll is just too much to overcome. They are a tired and their coach Matt Lottich admitted as much. Their top player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, just returned from mono and looked really tired the first 2 games. Lottich also said Freeman-Liberty was still “under the weather”. Well he scored 29 points yesterday which we didn’t see happening and played another 33 minutes. We just don’t see him being effective in this spot after logging 101 minutes the last 3 days coming off a fairly significant illness. Based on his performance the first 2 games which was not good, yesterday was an outlier and we think he, along with the entire Valpo team will struggle today. Three of their starters have played over 100 minutes already in this tourney and they have to be tired. There is no way around that. They shot 48% yesterday which was again, unexpected and an outlier in our mind after they shot 43% and 42% their first 2 games. After averaging 0.88 and 1.03 points per possession in their first 2 games here, the Crusaders broke out for 1.24 PPP in yesterday’s game. Again, we just don’t see them being able to keep up at that rate, especially now facing a Bradley defense that was #1 in the MVC in eFG% defense. The Crusaders were also given a boost by the refs as they called 25 fouls on Missouri State and just 16 on Valpo leading to 16 more FT attempts (+10 made FT’s). Again an outlier as the Crusaders got to the line fewer than any other team in the MVC during the regular season. The Braves will be playing their 3rd game in this tourney so they should definitely have more energy than Valpo. They also controlled the entire game yesterday in their 10 point win vs Drake so they were able to spread out their minutes with 8 guys getting double digit minutes. Bradley is also accustomed to this situation as they won this tournament last year before losing in the first round of the NCAA tourney to Michigan State. These 2 split their meetings this year with Valpo winning by 12 on their home court and Bradley winning by 11 at home. The favorite has covered 6 straight in this series and we just don’t see Valparaiso bringing enough energy to the table to allow them to get a win in this do or die spot. Lay it with Bradley. |
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03-07-20 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -6 | Top | 44-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Mississippi State -6 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET We think we’re getting great value here with Mississippi State at home. These two met less than a month ago on February 11th and the Bulldogs were actually favored on the road in that game by 1 point. Now we’re laying only 5 points with them at home when it could easily be 7 or 8 based on the line @ Ole Miss. For comparison’s sake, our SEC power ratings have Mississippi State and Auburn rated almost dead even and Ole Miss opened +9 @ Auburn less than 2 weeks ago. Another comparison would be MSU’s most recent home game in which they were favored by 5 vs Alabama (same spread as this game). We have Bama rated a full 40 spots ahead of Ole Miss in our national power ratings. The Bulldogs are playing their home finale here and should be plenty motivated after getting blasted @ Ole Miss in February 83-58. In that game MSU was leading 31-18 with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the first half and completely collapsed getting outscored 63-27 the rest of the way! The Rebels averaged 1.22 points per possession in that game and to give you an idea of how out of line that is for them, they average under 1.00 PPP in conference play this year. We don’t expect the Rebs to get anywhere near those numbers in this game as they average just 61 PPG on the road this year while shooting 37%. They are 1-7 SU in SEC road games and have topped 1.00 PPP just once. MSU is 7-1 SU at home in SEC play and that loss came way back on January 4th, their first conference game of the season. Their average margin of victory in this 7 SEC home wins is +14 points. Their only home win that came by less than tonight’s spread was vs South Carolina where the Bulldogs led by 11 with just over 1:00 minute remaining but won by just 3. Normally they are tough to come back on late if they have a lead because they shoot 79% from the FT line in conference play. MSU sits at 10-7 in the SEC and win in their final home game could move them into a tie for 2nd place depending on what teams above them do. This is a very manageable line for Mississippi State and we expect them to win this one by double digits. |
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03-06-20 | Bucks v. Lakers +1 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers +1 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET We put our head before our hearts when it comes to betting which is the case tonight. We love Giannis and the Bucks and really don’t care for LeBron and the Lakers but the bet here is on Los Angeles. The Lakers have NOT been a home underdog this season and recently they were favored by -6.5-points over Houston and -7.5-points against Boston. Overall as a Dog this season the Lakers are 7-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. LBJ will take this game personally as the race for the league MVP is between, he and Giannis. Giannis should clearly be the MVP with the numbers he’s put up this season with a 31.8PER compared to LBJ’s 25.7PER and he doesn’t have a top 5 player in the league on his roster as LeBron does. Anyway, back to the bet tonight. The Lakers have won 9 of their last ten games and have a recipe to beat the Bucks after watching the Miami Heat do it recently. L.A. can clog the lane with big bodes like McGee, Howard, Davis and LeBron and keep Giannis from getting to the rim where he is most dangerous. The Bucks have been incredible all season long on the road with a a25-6 SU record and a +10PPG differential but this will be a tough place to win given the circumstances. When these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier this season the Bucks won by 7-points but attempted 9 more (home) free throws and shot 41% from beyond the arc which was drastically higher than their 35.8% season average. Even though the Lakers have a big game on deck with the Clippers there is no way they look past the best team in the NBA the Bucks at home. Statement night! |
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03-06-20 | VCU v. Davidson -4 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Davidson -4 over VCU, Friday at 9 PM ET After their 73-62 win @ home vs Davidson back on February 7th, VCU was sitting at 7-3 in the A10 and looking solid. Since that win the Rams have plummeted losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs George Washington. VCU is extremely banged up right now with Marcus Evans (10 PPG, 3 APG) has missed 4 of the last 5 games due to a knee injury and De’Riante Jenkins (10 PPG, 4 RPG) has missed the last 2 games dealing with a personal matter. There is a good chance both sit again tonight. Davidson is back at home, where they are 10-1 on the season, after their toughest road trip of the season. They traveled to Dayton & Richmond, the 2 best teams in the A10, last week and over the weekend and lost both games. The Wildcats are one of the top shooting teams in the nation (#1 three point shooting team in the A10) and at home they are deadly averaging 80 PPG and hitting over 40% of their triples. In their first meeting @ VCU this sharp shooting Davidson team only hit 5 of 19 from beyond the arc (26%) which we feel was an aberration as VCU is not a great team defending the 3 point shot (8th in the conference). Also in that first meeting, the Rams were 19 of 19 from the FT line which was also an outlier as they only hit 67% of their FT’s in conference play (11th in the league). The final stat we’ll bring up from the first meeting was Davidson’s turnover rate. The coughed the ball up a ridiculous 30% of their possessions in that game which is unlike the Cats who average just 16% TO rate on the year ranking them 42nd nationally. We realize that VCU loves to create turnovers but that was still a very high rated for a normally solid ball handling team. Also seeing the Rams pressure once already this season will have Davidson ready for the rematch. Lastly, the 2 players that are most likely out for the Rams (Evans & Jenkins) combined for 34 points in the first win. This is Davidson’s final home game of the season and we mentioned their 10-1 record here this year, they have always been a tough out Belk Arena winning 35 of their last 39 here. VCU is one of the worst spread teams in the nation with a 10-20 ATS record and as an underdog this year they tend to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to. In fact, the Rams have been an underdog 7 times this year and they are 0-7 ATS in those games. Going back 3 years VCU is just 8-20 ATS as a dog. With their injuries and Davidson having revenge, we like the Cats to play well and cover this one. |
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03-05-20 | 76ers v. Kings UNDER 220 | Top | 125-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: UNDER Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET This line has been bet down by 3-points already and we were waiting/hoping it would go back up before betting it, but it has leveled off at the current number so we’re playing now. These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now with the Kings winning 6 of their last seven while the 76ers have lost 3 of four. The Kings are doing it with a defense that has been substantially better in 5 of their last six game allowing 103, 94, 112, 101 and 100 points in those contests. They did allow 126 to Washington but the Wizards are one of the fastest paced and highest scoring teams in the NBA. On the season the Kings allow 1.111 points per possession but in their last five contests they are giving up just 1.076PPP which ranks them 8th in the NBA. Sacramento is also one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA ranking 26th in pace of play or 98.4 possessions per game. Offensively the Kings rank 20th on the season in offensive efficiency, and even though they’ve played better of late, they still rank 14th (slightly above average) in their last five games when it comes to OEFF. Philly is also one of the slower paced teams in the NBA at 98.9 possessions per game and without Ben Simmons pushing the ball for them they have slowed to 96.2 possessions per game. The 76ers have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA on the season and their current numbers are skewed drastically worse from playing both Los Angeles teams. Granted, it was a long time ago and the dynamics for both teams have changed significantly but when these two teams met in November they combined for just 188 total points. Our math models are projecting 214.5 total points in this contest. |
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03-05-20 | Wichita State v. Memphis -2 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Memphis -2 over Wichita State, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN Big game for both teams has Wichita sits in the tourney as a low seed by most while Memphis is currently out. However, the Tigers have a chance to make a move at home here playing Wichita tonight and Houston over the weekend. Winning both would probably get them in. Just a huge home stand for Memphis. Wichita is coming off a big win @ SMU but how that went down is key here. The Shockers trailed 50-26 with 13:00 minutes remaining in the game and WON the game 66-62 thus outscoring the Mustangs 40-12 from that point on. Obviously A LOT had to go WSU’s way for them to make that comeback and they expended plenty of physical and mental energy in doing so. In fact, between the 13:00 minute mark and 9:00 minute mark – so 4 minutes of game time – the Shockers made 5 three pointers & a layup while holding SMU scoreless to cut the 24 point lead to 7 in a hurry. That simply almost never happens. Especially from a team that isn’t a good shooting team to being with which Wichita is not. Now going on the road again after that effort we think they’re in trouble tonight. Memphis has won 3 of their last 4 games (including a win here over Houston, the best team in the AAC) to move back close to the NCAA bubble. The Tigers are great defensively (5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 1st nationally in defensive eFG%) and we expect them to really slow down this Wichita team that went crazy in the 2nd half on Sunday. As we mentioned, the Shockers are not a good shooting team ranking dead last in the AAC in eFG% and 8th in 3-point %. They made 14 three pointers on Sunday in their comeback win which is an absolute outlier. To put that in perfective, in their previous 15 conference games Wichita averaged 7 three pointers made per game and only topped 10 one other time. Now, on the road again where they shoot 28% from 3, they are facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th nationally at defending the arc. Wichita has struggled on the road vs the top tier teams in the AAC losing @ Houston, @ Cincy, and @ Tulsa and we think they have problems here, especially offensively where they average just 64 PPG on the road. The Shockers got the home win 76-67 earlier this year but Memphis minus this small number is the play this time around. |
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03-04-20 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -6 | Top | 63-69 | Push | 0 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -6 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET We are now in the final week of the regular season and motivation becomes extremely important when handicapping games. In next week’s conference tournaments everyone should be properly motivated as the dangling carrot which is the NCAA tourney is then open to everyone. Win your conference tourney and you’re in. That’s not the case this week. In this game we feel we have a prime spot to go against a team that should be flat (Kansas State) while backing a team that should be motivated (Oklahoma State). KSU gave a huge home effort on Saturday facing archrival Kansas but came up just short 62-58. It was a revenge game for the Wildcats after their earlier meeting with the Jayhawks in Lawrence ended in a blowout and a brawl as time expired. Watching this KSU team on Saturday, we could tell they put everything they had into that game. We can’t imagine them playing well on the road in this game after that effort. With the loss the Cats are 2-14 in the Big 12 and guaranteed a last place finish sitting 3 games behind the next worst team with 2 left to play. They have absolutely nothing to play for here. They have now lost 9 consecutive games and they are 0-9 SU on the road in conference play. They do have one final home game this weekend vs Iowa State and if there is a game they will play with some passion, that will be it, not this game. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is trending upward. The Cowboys began the conference season with 8 straight losses but have since gone 5-3 over their last 8 games with their 3 losses coming vs Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all on the road (3 highest rated teams in the Big 12). This is their home finale so OSU has plenty to play for with 4 seniors in their 7 man main rotation. They are coming off a 12 point home win vs Iowa State so OSU is playing their 2nd consecutive home game. Their last 3 home games they beat ISU by 12, Oklahoma by 17 (battling for a tourney bid), and Texas Tech by 3 (in 3rd place in the Big 12). OSU(+2.5) beat Kansas State on the road a few weeks ago 64-59 and we see no reason, based on this situation, they don’t win big here. |
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03-04-20 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 118-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET The Brooklyn Nets are off a monumental comeback win over the Celtics last night and in for a letdown here. Boston went into the 4th quarter last night with a 17-point lead over Brooklyn before Caris LeVert decided to put the rest of the Nets on his back and carry them to the win. LeVert scored 37 of his 51 total points in the 4th quarter but you can bet he won’t produce those numbers here tonight (averages 17.3PPG on the year). The Nets have played 4 road game including last nights OT affair in Boston. On the season the Nets are just 2-6 SU on the second night of a back to back and lost their most recent home game to the Magic as a -3.5-point favorite. Memphis is fighting for the 8th spot in the West and took a hit when they lost 5 games in a row in late February but have won two straight to regain their confidence. The Grizzlies blew the Lakers out 105-88 then crushed the Hawks in Atlanta 127-88. Their defense has clearly been outstanding in their last two games allowing just 88-points in each. The Nets have a negative differential of minus -4.6PPG their last five contests while the Grizz are minus -.4PPG. As a favorite less than -4.5 points the Nets are 9-13 ATS this season while the Grizzlies in the same price range as a dog is 9-4 ATS. The underdog has covered 5 of the last six meetings and we like Memphis to win this one outright. |
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03-03-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Georgia State -3 | Top | 70-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Tuesday at 7 PM ET This one sets up perfectly for Georgia State to get a home win on Senior Night. The Panthers are coming in off 3 straight losses giving us some value here. Two of those losses were on the road and were expected as they were underdogs @ Texas State (#1 power rated team in the Sun Belt) and @ UT Arlington. Their 3rd loss was at home last Friday when arch rival Georgia Southern +5.5 took the Panthers down at home. We were on Southern in that game and felt it was a great spot for them to pull the upset and they did. This is a totally different situation with Ga State for tonight’s game. They are still 11-8 in Sun Belt action and battling for conference tourney seeding. They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their outcome along with the results of other games in conference play. One thing we know for sure, Little Rock has clinched the Sun Belt regular season crown and will be the #1 seed. They beat Louisiana at home on Saturday to assure that #11 seed. Tonight they have nothing to play for. The Trojans overachieved this season to get to this spot with a very young team (4 underclassmen in starting line up) as they were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt by most experts. This is a program that is not used to being in this spot as they were 10-21 last season and 17-46 over the last 2 seasons. Give them credit for getting to this point but we absolutely think they have a letdown here. Georgia State, on the other hand, is a program that is used to winning as they finished a top the Sun Belt each of the previous 2 seasons and they finished with 24 or more wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons. They have a conference record of 89-42 since joining the Sun Belt in 2013. Getting them off 3 losses including their most recent one at home, where they have still won 25 of their last 28 games, is ideal in our opinion. Both teams are solid offensively but GSU has the definite edge on defense. They rank higher overall and in conference play in defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, and defensive 3-point%. The Panthers average 83 PPG at home this year while UALR averages just 68 PPG on the road and they have lost 2 of their last 3 road games. Last year in this match up GSU was a 9 point favorite at home and won by 13 in their home finale. This year they are laying only 3 points and the situation heavily favors the Panthers. We like Georgia State here. |
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03-02-20 | Jazz v. Cavs +10 | Top | 126-113 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers +10 over Utah Jazz, 7PM ET The Cavaliers are a better team with their recent coaching change and the addition of Andre Drummond. Cleveland had won two straight games against a pair of the better teams in the East when they beat Miami in OT and then Philly by 14-points. They then followed up with a loss in New Orleans and home against the Pacers. The up-and-down Jazz got a home win over Washington but that was preceded by four straight losses, all of which were at home. Utah is just 4-4 SU their last eight road games and 16-13 SU away from home on the season with a +1.1-point differential. Even though the Cavs are a dismal 9-23 SU at home their negative differential of -6.9PPG is good enough to get a cover in this contest. Let’s face it, a big reason for the Cavs horrible statistics was injuries and a college coach trying to adjust to the NBA. Now with a solid front court of Drummond and Love along with a dynamic guard in Sexton this team should trend up the last part of this season. This is the largest road spread of the season for the Jazz and it’s time to play against them. |
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03-01-20 | Virginia Tech v. Louisville -12 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville -12 over Virginia Tech, Sunday at 6 PM ET This is a great spot to play on Louisville and also a perfect set up to fade Va Tech. The Cards are off an 82-67 loss @ FSU on Monday in a game they led by 8 at half. The Cardinals however collapsed in the second half getting outscored 50-27 including a 15-0 run by the Noles. The 50 points allowed in the 2nd half was the most Louisville has allowed in a half the entire season and you can bet this team, who is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, will play with a purpose on that end of the court on Sunday in their home finale vs Virginia Tech. Let’s remember that U of L ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.92 PPP and 18th in eFG% defense. The Cards were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago getting embarrassed by 15 points @ Clemson and then coming home and laying one on Syracuse 90-66. A much better Syracuse team than the Va Tech team they are playing today. The Hokies are coming off a huge rivalry game at home vs Virginia. It was a game they were anticipating after getting waxed by 26 points @ UVA earlier this year. Their game on Wednesday went to the wire with the Cavs getting the road win 56-53. VT was down 26-11 at half in that game (yes you read that correctly) and made a valiant comeback actually taking the lead with 3:00 minutes remaining before losing by 3. That game took a lot out of Tech both physically and mentally and now they go on the road to play one of the best team’s in the nation off a loss. They are just 2-5 in ACC road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits. Their most recent road game was @ Duke and Va Tech lost that game by 24 as 15.5 point underdogs. We actually think we’re getting value with Louisville laying only 12 in this situation. They are every bit as good as Duke (Cards beat Duke on the road in their only meeting) yet laying 3.5 points less than the Devils did just a week ago. The Hokies started the ACC season with a 5-3 record but have been heading downhill since losing 8 of their last 9. They are a poor shooting team ranking 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and 252nd nationally making only 42% of their shots. It gets even worst for them on the road where they make just 39% of their shot attempts and scoring only 61 PPG. That’s going to be an issue vs a Louisville defense that will be motivated and an offense that has average 82 PPG their last 5 home games. The top 4 teams in the ACC are Duke, Louisville, FSU, and Virginia and the Hokies are 0-5 in games vs those teams losing by an average score of 73-56 and that includes 3 home games vs UVA, FSU, and Duke. In their only 2 road games vs those opponents they lost by 24 @ Duke and by 26 @ UVA. Louisville might be without starting center Malik Williams here (foot injury) but they are one of the deeper teams in the nation and in their home finale we still expect them to win this one BIG. Lay it with Louisville. |
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02-29-20 | Magic v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 113-114 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points |
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