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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-10-17 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas State -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Texas State (-4.5) over UL Monroe, 3PM ET - We love this spot for several reasons including: Texas State is rested while UL Monroe is coming off an OT win over Arkansas State on Wednesday as a sizeable underdog. In fact, ULM was +7 in that game and Texas State in our opinion is slightly better than Arkansas State, and they're laying just -4.5-points in this game. Plus, Texas State was just a -2.5-point favorite at ULM in the final regular season game which means they should be -7 or more here. Texas State beat ULM on March 4th in a meaningless game for them and played their entire roster extended minutes. When we look at TXST's most recent road contests we see they came against 4 of the best teams in the Sun Belt so their most recent road struggles aren't the best barometer considering they are playing the last place team in the conference today. When we look at both teams road records (this game is on a neutral court so essentially a road venue for both) we find ULM had an average negative differential of nearly 12PPG. Texas State was much better away from home with a negative differential of -5PPG. UL Monroe is just 3-16 SU their last 19 games overall and are off a huge upset. Looks like a return to Earth today against a solid Texas State team that has covered 5 straight as a chalk. Lay the points! |
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03-09-17 | Virginia v. Notre Dame OVER 125 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 125, Notre Dame vs Virginia, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET We took OVER in the UVA-Pitt game last night and it easily eclipsed 117 as the two combined for 138 points. Now we get a much better offense with Notre Dame (17th in the nation in offensive efficiency) as compared to yesterday’s opponent (Pitt) and the number still sits in the low 120’s. Our math model predicts 133 which gives us nearly 10 points of value here. These two met once this season and the total on that game was set at 129.5 with UVA winning 71-54 (125 total points). The normally fine shooting Irish made just 41% of their shots overall and worse yet, only 3 of 18 from beyond the arc (16%). It was their lowest offensive output of the season and in fact the only time this year ND was held under 60 points. On the other end of the court, the ND defense, which is middle of the pack in the ACC in efficiency, has not held one team under 60 points in ACC play this year. That would lead us to believe that both teams get to at least the 60’s here which would mean a very strong likelihood this one goes OVER. |
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03-09-17 | Rutgers v. Northwestern OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 122.5, Rutgers vs Northwestern, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET Big value here on the OVER according to our numbers. Our math model as this one set at 131.5 which is an 8.5 point advantage. Looking at the two meetings this year, the oddsmakers set totals of 132 and 131 on those games and now we sit in the low 120’s. In one meeting the two teams combined for 134 points and 129 in the other. That obviously means both eclipsed this number, and fairly easily. The stats in those games were far from impressive as the two teams combined to shoot only 39% and just 22% from beyond the arc (both games combined). Yesterday Rutgers faced off against Ohio State and the two totaled 123 (right at this number) despite shooting terribly at 38% and missing 19 FT’s. The Scarlet Knights have combined with their opponent to score less than 123 points just 4 times in their 19 Big Ten games. NW combined with their Big Ten opponents to score less than 123 just 2 times in 18 games. This one has been adjusted too far and we grab the OVER. |
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03-09-17 | Montana v. Idaho OVER 139 | Top | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 139 Montana vs Idaho game. Let’s start with the facts that the Big Sky games this year have averaged 150 total points per game and every team averages more than 1.000 points per possession AND allow more than a point per possession. The Big Sky is also the 10th fastest paced conference in the nation which means more scoring opportunities. In their two meetings, this season both games finished UNDER the total but current trends tell us this will be a higher scoring game. When playing on the road this season (better indicator for tourney games), Montana and Idaho games have averaged 147 total points per game. In their most recent games, Montana is averaging 154 total points per game and Idaho is averaging 149. These two teams have favored the OVER all season long in conference play with a combined record of 20-15. Our math model projects 147.5 total points for this game and we couldn’t agree more! |
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03-09-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Middle Tennessee OVER 128.5 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY OVER 129 Texas San Antonio vs Middle Tennessee State, 12:30PM ET – This will be a tougher wager to make but the averages and computer math model projects a total on this game of 135 which is 6 full points higher than the Vegas number. Again, our math model continues to predict O/U’s at a ridiculous rate and we won’t buck the system here. In the lone meeting this season these two combined for 128 total points but Middle Tennessee State was coming off a HUGE conference win and simply played down to a bad UTSA teams level. This is playoff basketball and a rested MTSU team, which is the best in the conference, is going to motivated and focused here. Even though UTSA can struggle offensively at times, their games have finished with more total points than today’s number in 7 of their last 8. On the road this season UTSA games have averaged 139 total points while MTSU road games averaged that same 139PPG. In their last five games these two teams are averaging 132 (UTSA) and 146 (MTSU) total points per game. Middle Tennessee State is the most efficient offense in C-USA AT 1.113 points per possession which is also one of the better numbers in the entire country. Conference USA games average over 142PPG on the season and we feel these two teams get to the 139 range and an EASY OVER! |
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03-09-17 | Illinois +5 v. Michigan | Top | 55-75 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois +5 over Michigan, Thursday at 12 PM ET Bad situation yesterday for the Wolverines. Their plane ran off the runway and takeoff yesterday afternoon and the team was not able to make it to DC until this morning. After that scare and showing up here a few hours before game time, we have to side with Illinois getting points in this one. The Illini played their best basketball at the end of the year winning 5 of 6 to put @ Rutgers now making this a must win. Illini head coach John Groce stated that his team played the best basketball since he’s been here over their final 6 or 7 games. The defense was key as they held 7 of their final 9 opponents under 70 points. That gives them an edge on that end of the court facing a Michigan team that ranks 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and dead last in eFG% defense. Michigan relies heavily on the 3-pointer with 38% of their points in conference play coming from deep (most in the Big Ten). We don’t like backing teams that rely that heavily on the outside shot at a neutral venue they’ve never played at. These two met twice this year with the home team winning each – Illinois with a 17 point win at home and Michigan with a 9 point win at home. We think this one will be nip and tuck the entire way so we take the points with Illinois here. |
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03-08-17 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia OVER 116 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 116, Pittsburgh vs Virginia, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET These two just met in Virginia on Saturday and the total was set at 122. Thus, just based on that, we’re looking at a 6 point value here. Our math model sits at 130 for this one so a full 14 point advantage to the OVER. A heavy part of the reasoning for this total sitting so low is the result from last Saturday. UVA won that game 67-42 so 109 total points were scored. The Panthers made only 15 of their 45 shots (33%) including just 4 of 20 from beyond the arc (20%). UVA was nothing special at 42% for the game. On top of that, the two combined to attempt only 10 FT’s in the entire game. They made all 10 but 10 made FT’s in a game is extremely low. However, despite all of that these two still reached 109 points which isn’t all that far off this number. Pitt scored just 15 points in the first half of that game but seemed to get it together a bit in the 2nd half with 27 so expect a carryover here and a much better offensive performance. Let’s also not forget when these two met the first time this season, they put up 138 points in regulation (Pitt won in OT). UVA’s defense is well known, however they are MUCH better at home than they are on the road. At home they allow just 54 PPG on 39% shooting and on the road they give up 63 PPG on 43% shooting. If Pitt would have had this total (currently 116) set for every game this year, they would have gone under only twice with 29 overs. Even UVA would be sitting at 18 overs and 12 unders if all of their totals were set at 116. This total has been over adjusted too far and we grab the OVER. |
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03-07-17 | Idaho State v. CS Sacramento OVER 139 | Top | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #719/720 OVER 139 IDAHO STATE vs SACRAMENTO STATE, 8:30PM ET - This is clearly one of our computer plays and based on value and year long, in conference statistics. When these two teams met earlier this year the Vegas Total was set at 146 and this line opened 143 before dropping to 139. That's a full 7 points of value compared to the earlier meeting! Our math on this game suggests 148 total points and we couldn't agree more with it. The Big Sky league average is 150PPG. Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the entire country in defensive efficiency ratings as Idaho State allows 1.119PPP (339th) while Sacramento State allows 1.118PPP which is 338th out of 351 D1 schools. Easy OVER call here. |
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03-07-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Northern Kentucky OVER 133 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 133, UW Milwaukee vs Northern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET This total opened 136.5 and has dropped to 133 and we’re jumping on the value here. Our math model has this one at 144 so now we’re getting double digit value to the OVER. We have two of the better shooting teams in the Horizon facing off in this one. N Kentucky is the #1 eFG% team in the conference and UWM is 3rd. Both also rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. For the season NKU is averaging 75 PPG but they’ve really turned it up as of late averaging 84 PPG over their last 5. The Norse have scored 84 & 82 points in their two Horizon League tourney games. Milwaukee has put up 70 PPG over their last 5 and that includes an offensive stinker in the 2nd game of this tourney when they beat Valpo 43-41. Throw that game out the window as Valpo played without their leading scorer and conference player of the year (Peters) which took a big portion of their offense out of the lineup. The two teams were also both had a horrendous shooting night combining to make only 31 shots the entire game (32% from the field). They also made just 9 of 39 combined from beyond the arc. Just one of those games. In their other two games in the tourney UWM put up 85 & 74 points. When these two met this year they had lower scoring games with the combined numbers at 132 & 126. That, however, sets this total up too low with how these offenses are playing now. Also with UWM playing their 4th game in 5 nights and NKU playing their 3rd straight night, the defenses could tire here. Finally, with an NCAA tourney bid on the line, there will be no “give up” in this one so their will most likely be some scrambling and fouling late depending on the score. We like the OVER here. |
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03-06-17 | Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 166.5 | Top | 106-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
We are going to play UNDER in the Central Michigan versus Kent State game. Our Math Model suggests a total output on this game of 160 which is well below the opening total set on this game of 170.5. Since the line came out this game has been bet down to 166.5 but there is still value in the number per our computers. CMU just played Western Michigan who is a more efficient offense compared to Kent and worse defensively and CMU/WMU scored 168 total points which is barely more than tonight’s number. Kent is the 4th most efficient defense in the MAC and they’ve held 5 straight opponents to less than 70 points. In that 5 games run the Zips held the MAC’s #1 offensive efficiency team, Akron, to 66 and 67 points in two games. Granted Central Michigan’s defense hasn’t been good this season and especially poor lately but in their last five game, four team have been better than Kent’s which is 9th in the MAC in OEFF and 10th in eFG% shooting just 48.3%. In the lone meeting, earlier this season between these two teams they combined for 203 total points by 35 game in OT. With the pressure of the tourney on both teams we don’t see them getting near that number today. BET UNDER! |
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03-06-17 | East Tennessee State v. NC-Greensboro OVER 137 | Top | 79-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 137, UNC Greensboro vs East Tennessee State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 Our math model, which has been very successful on college totals down the stretch, has this one pegged at 147 so a double digit advantage for the OVER here. These two met twice this year with the totals set at 144 & 145 which is well above where this one is set. The two meetings ended with final scores of 83-79 (162 points) and 72-66 (138 points). In the game that reached 162 points, both teams shot well hitting right around 50% of their shots. However, in the game that made it to 138, which would go OVER the current number, that was not the case. In that game the two teams combined to make only 42% of their shots and 35% of their 3’s. Nothing fantastic there and the still nearly hit 140. UNCG and ETSU are two of the faster paced teams in the Southern Conference (2nd and 3rd in tempo) and they both shoot the ball well (2nd and 3rd in conference eFG%). In conference play, including the Southern Tourney thus far, ETSU has reached at least 70 points in 15 of their 20 games (75%). UNCG has gotten to at least 70 points in 16 of their 20 games (80%). If both get to 70, this one goes OVER. We think they do. Take the value with the OVER in this one. |
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03-06-17 | South Dakota State v. South Dakota OVER 152 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
The analytics on the South Dakota vs. South Dakota State says bet OVER 152 and we couldn't agree more. The Summit is one of the faster paced, higher scoring conferences in the country and not known for their defense. Summit league games this year have averaged 159.3PPG and today we have a total set that is less than 'average'. South Dakota has the best DEFF in the conference play, allowing 1.029 points per possession but their overall defensive efficiency rating is 156th in the nation or not very good. South Dakota State is 7th in the Summit in DEFF in conference play and 329th (out of 352) in the nation in DEFF allowing 1.096PPP. On the other side of the ball, South Dakota State has the 52nd best offensive efficiency rating in all of college basketball this season at 1.078PPP and in just conference play that number improves to 1.162PPP. South Dakota is 7th in the Summit in OEFF, which doesn't sound great, but they are 127th in the country overall at 1.035PPP which is good. These same two teams just met in late February and combined for 180 total points and Vegas has adjusted this number down on this game compared to the earlier meeting. In their last five games SDST and their opponents are averaging 164 total points. In that same 5 game span, SDAK, combined with their foe is averaging 168 total points. Combined these two are 19-5 OVER run in Summit league play. |
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03-05-17 | Denver v. South Dakota State OVER 150 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
TOP TOTAL - OVER Denver vs South Dakota State, 7pm ET - Based on our analytics the total points scored in this game will be 159 which is well above the posted total. In both teams last five games they've been shooting the ball exceptionally well as Denver, as a team, is hitting nearly 47% from the field while South Dakota State is shooting 50%. On the other end of the court neither team has played much defense lately either. Denver has allowed foes to make nearly 50% of their FG attempts while SDST has allowed opponents to make 47%. The last game these two teams played was against each other on this same court Feb 25th and that game had a total of 154.5 on the game and they combined for 152 total points. Denver has the 3rd best eFG% in the Summit at 55.5% and South Dakota State has the 3rd worst efficiency defense in the conference but yet Denver scored just 64 points (10 less than season average) on 41% shooting. Denver has played OVER the total in 17 of their last 22 Summit league games while SDST is on a 10-4 OVER run in conference games. Let's not forget the league average for Summit league games this year is 159.3PPG. Bet OVER! |
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03-05-17 | Minnesota +6.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET Wisky continues to get the respect of oddsmakers despite losing 5 of their last 6. This team is struggling right now. They led Iowa by 9 on Thursday with just over 3:00 remaining in the game and what would normally be an absolute win for Wisky in that spot turned into a 2 point loss. They are a bad FT shooting team (just 5 of 14 vs Iowa) and something is off with this team right now. Can they right the ship on Senior night? Possibly but even if they do get a win, we expect it to be a close game. The Gophs are the hottest team in the Big Ten right now winning 8 straight games including 4 straight on the road. Minny has lost 6 straight to Wisconsin and they have revenge here after losing at home in OT in January 78-76. The Badgers were playing very well at that time and still needed OT to win the game. That isn’t the case anymore. The Gophs have covered 7 of their last 8 while the Badgers have lost 7 of 8 to the number. Can Wisconsin keep up here? Minnesota’s offense is averaging 83 PPG over their last 5 while UW is putting up just 66 PPG. Wisconsin may win this, although we’re not so sure, but even if they do we expect it to go to the wire. Take the points. |
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03-05-17 | Celtics -6 v. Suns | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #827 Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Phoenix Suns, 5PM ET - We're going to lay the points with Boston on the road over Phoenix. The Suns have won two straight home games but in both cases (OKC and Charlotte) they caught their opponents in bad scheduling situation. Today they get a Boston team that is the second best team in the East and playing well and has the 5th best road differential in the NBA at +1.9PPG (only 5 teams have a positive road DIFF on the road). On the flip side the Suns are off a home win and have been horrible in this situation with a 4-16 SU record off a win, 1-9 SU at home. Phoenix also has the 4th worst home differential in the NBA at minus -2.3PPG. Boston has covered 14 of their last 20 on the road off a win and should get a double digit win here. |
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03-05-17 | Purdue v. Northwestern +3.5 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +3.5 over Purdue, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET The Boilers have absolutely nothing to play for here. They clinched the outright Big Ten title on Thursday night when Wisconsin lost at home to Iowa. Most of the PU players were gathered together watching Iowa hit a 3 pointer with 9 seconds left to beat the Badgers by 2. Word is the room erupted as the Boilermakers accomplished their goal of winning the Big Ten. Now traveling to NW, a team they beat by 20+ earlier this year, might be a tough spot for this Purdue team to bring their best. Not to mention PU is a MUCH better team at home than they are on the road. They are just 5-4 this year in true road games with 4 of those wins coming by margins of 1, 1, 4 and 5 points. This is Northwestern’s final home game and while their win earlier this week vs Michigan may have pushed them into the Big Dance for the first time ever, it’s not a 100% lock quite yet. A win here over Purdue would guarantee an NCAA tourney bid. The Cats will also have some extra motivation here after playing one of their worst games of the year @ Purdue losing 80-59. NW shot just 35% in that game and made only 2 of their 14 three point attempts. The Boilers made 52% from beyond the arc in that win. NW also played that game without one of their top players Lindsay who has since returned. We like NW to win this game outright at home on Sunday. |
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03-04-17 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. North Dakota State OVER 147.5 | Top | 76-57 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 147.5, North Dakota State vs IUPUI, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET Our computer math model, which has been extremely accurate with college totals over the last month or so, predicts 155 on this game so we’ll go OVER. These two met twice this season with the two teams totaling 182 & 167, albeit the 2nd one was in overtime. The Summit League is not known for their defensive prowess as league games average 159 PPG this year. Both are solid shooting teams and IUPUI puts up 78 PPG while NDSU averages 76 PPG. IUPUI’s defense allows the highest shooting % in the Summit at 47.3%. They allowed over 80 points in more than half of their conference games this year (9 of 17). While NDSU did play solid defense at times this year, when they faced the top scoring offenses in the league, they nearly all led to high scoring games. When facing IUPUI, IPFW, and Nebraska Omaha (6 games vs these opponents), the 3 top scoring teams in the conference, only once did a game end under 150 points. These teams have played to the OVER all season long combining for a 36-14 OVER record. This one is set too low and we like another high scoring affair. |
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03-04-17 | Notre Dame +8 v. Louisville | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +8 over Louisville, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET on CBS Louisville went through a stretch mid-season where they were throttling teams. That red hot stretch ended in early February and now this team simply isn’t playing all that well. They are 4-3 their last 7 games and 3 of their 4 wins have come by 5 points or fewer. This Cardinal team needs to create turnovers for their offense to flow as they are simply not a great shooting team ranking 138th in eFG%. The Irish are not a great match up for this team. That’s because they don’t turn the ball over. ND gives the ball away just 14% of the time which is the 3rd best mark in the nation. They are always a dangerous underdog because they shoot the ball so well (36th nationally in eFG%) and they make their FT’s (81% for #1 in the nation). Notre Dame hit a slow streak in late January but have since ripped off 6 consecutive wins. They beat Louisville 77-70 earlier this year and had only 12 turnovers in the game. Again, that’s the recipe for beating U of L and the Irish do it as well as anyone. The Irish have lost only 2 games this year by more than 8 points (where this spread currently stands) and even if they lose here, we expect a tight game throughout. They’ve also proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-2 SU record in true road games. With Louisville struggling a bit, we take ND to cover this spread and feel they have a solid shot at the upset. |
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03-03-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 170.5 | Top | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Today we play UNDER in the Central Michigan at Western Michigan game. The number on this game opened around 175 and has since been played down to the current number but we still feel there is plenty of value left with an UNDER wager. Our math suggests a total output on this game of 161.5 which is significantly less than the total set on this MAC clash. These same ‘Michigan’ teams recently met in Central and produced 168 total points. Western is the more dominate team here, at home, and they’ll instill their will on the flow of the game which means a slower tempo contest. WMU is 11th in the conference in pace of play and will do everything to keep CMU from playing fast (1st in MAC). The average total points scored in MAC games this year is 152. Western Michigan has been especially stingy defensively their last three games having allowed 56 or less points in each of those games, and one was an OT affair. CMU is shooting just 38.7% their last five games and will have some issues scoring here against the Broncos. Based on comparable opponents we predict a total right around 160. BET UNDER! |
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03-02-17 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 219 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
We are going to play OVER in the OKC Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers game. The current Total on this game is hovering around 219 total points which is 8-points higher than the league average but we still feel there is enough value for an OVER wager. These two teams are both in the top 10 of the league in terms of pace of play and both are in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. OKC may be 10th in defensive efficiency ratings but Portland is 4th worst. In their last four games the Thunder have scored 109 or more points in every game and they've given up 105 or more in three of the four. Portland is allowing an average of 111PPG their last five games with opponents hitting over 45% from the field against them. There will be some fantastic guard play tonight with Lillard, McCollum and Russell Westbrook on the court and we expect a fast paced high scoring affair. BET OVER! |
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03-01-17 | Michigan State v. Illinois -2 | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Michigan State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET Tough spot here for a very young MSU team. They are off a huge home win on Sunday vs a struggling Wisconsin team and now take the road a few days later. While Sparty has been tough at home, they are just 2-6 on the road this season. MSU has a road scoring margin of -8 PPG and they are allowing opponents to shoot 47%. That happens with a young team. The defense has problems on the road. This will be the first road game MSU has had to play without starting senior guard Eron Harris who was lost for the season in a loss @ Purdue on February 18th.They are facing an Illini team that is absolutely peaking to close out the regular season. Illinois has won 4 of their last 5 games and their defense has been outstanding down the stretch. And speaking of defense, U of I has been lock down on that end of the court as of late. Over the last 5 games the Illini defense has allowed opponents just 0.93 points per possession. Illinois is a veteran team playing their final home game of the season. They still have hopes of an NCAA berth but must win this one and @ last place Rutgers this weekend to get to 9-9 in the Big Ten and 19-12 overall heading into the conference tourney. We’ll take Illinois here. |
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02-28-17 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 140 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 140 in the Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois game. The MAC conference as a whole is very high scoring conference as their games average 152 total points on the season, and tonight we have value with this number that has simply been set to low. Based on our projections this game should finish with 149 total points and go OVER the number. These same two teams just met in mid-February and totaled 143 total points in Western Michigan. NIU hit just 39% from the field overall and made just 5 of 19 3-pointers. WMU didn't have a great shooting night either at just 43% and they missed 9 free throws as a team but combined they still scored 143 which would net a winner here. You can expect a much better shooting night from the Huskies tonight as they have shot over 44% as a team at home this season while Western Michigan has hit an average over 45% their last five games and scored nearly 80PPG. WMU recently played an Eastern Michigan team that is very similar in terms of pace, OEFF and DEFF to Northern Illinois and they combined for 168 total points. We can also make the comparison between Akron and WMU (tempo, OEFF and DEFF) and see that NIU recently played the Zips and they combined for 149 total points. |
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02-28-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 172 | Top | 109-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
UNDER EASTERN MICHIGAN @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN - We nailed another easy Total winner last night in college as our late season predictive math model is honed in. Today our favorite O/U wager on the board is UNDER in the Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan game. Our projected number on this game is 158 which is substantially lower than the Vegas number. When looking at a few comparable opponents (Kent State and No. Illinois) to Eastern Michigan we find Central Michigan scored 170 and 155 versus NIU and 166 versus Kent State (*In regulation*). Those two teams have similar tempo and efficiency ratings to EMU which gives us a great baseline for tonight’s contest. On the flip side, there are some similar numbers for Ball State and Central Michigan and when Eastern played Ball State twice this season they totaled 166 and 151. These two Michigan teams have already squared off this season and that game ended with 148 total points. EMU is shooting just 42.9% on the road this year and CMU is struggling shooting at just 39.8% as a team their last five games. The UNDER is 8-1 the last nine meetings with the highest total points scored in the last 10 meetings being 179 which barely crawls over tonight’s number. In fact, the average total points scored in the last 10 clashes is just 130 total points per game. |
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02-27-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 164 | Top | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 164 in the UL Lafayette @ Appalachian State game. Vegas posted a number on this game of 166 and it was immediately bet down to 164 but it hasn’t moved enough per our predictive math model which suggests a total of 152 on this game. Let’s not forget the Sunbelt league average total points scored per game is 143.7PPG so you can see for yourself this number is over-inflated. Yes, these are two of the faster paced teams in the conference but based on comparable opponents this game won’t come close to the posted Total. Appalachian State shoots just 40.3% at home on the season which makes them one of the worst shooting teams at home in the Sun Belt, and they allow just 43.7% at home which is drastically better than their overall season % allowed. They average and allow less than 70PPG when playing at home on the season. ULL struggles to shoot on the road at just 42.6% and their road contests have averaged just 153 total points per game. App State has played UNDER in 8 of their last eleven at home. BET UNDER! |
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02-26-17 | Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-57 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
OVER 137.5 Illinois @ Nebraska, 7:30PM ET – We wish we could bet this game at the opening line of 133 but even though we can’t, we still feel there is enough value to play OVER on this number. In fact, our math model projects 142 total points on this game and we feel it will be even higher than that. In the first meeting of the season these two teams combined for 145 total points which pushed the Vegas number. These two teams are both in the bottom half of the Big 10 in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but they are also in the bottom of the conference in defensive efficiency ratings. Illinois allows 1.056 points per possession and Nebraska allows 1.063PPP. On the season the Illini are averaging 143 total points per game with their opponents when playing on the road while Nebraska home games have averaged that same number of 143. Granted, Illinois averages are down their past 5 games but they played Northwestern twice in that 5-game span and they are the 3rd slowest paced team in the Big Ten and one of the better defensive teams. The Cornhuskers are 5th in the Big Ten in pace of play and they’ll set the tempo at home today. The bet here is OVER the total! |
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02-26-17 | Jazz v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 102-92 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Washington Wizards (-1.5) over Utah Jazz, 5PM ET – Washington is in a great spot here as they are off an upset loss to Philly and should bounce back in a big way at home (10-2 SU this year off a loss and playing at home). Utah on the other hand is off a road win. Washington has been near unbeatable at home with wins in 19 of their last 20 and the lone L came against the East leading Cavaliers. The Wiz have an average home point differential of +6PPG which is one of the better numbers in the league. Utah has been solid on the road all season long with a +2PPG differential but they are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 away from home. Washington has covered 4 of their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record and have covered 7 of their last 9 off a loss. Play Washington today! |
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02-25-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Western Illinois OVER 154.5 | Top | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #711/712 OVER 154.5 IPFW @ Western Illinois, 8:30PM ET – We just successfully played over in a Western Illinois game earlier this week and tonight they face one of the fastest paced teams in the Summit League in IPFW. The Summit League is known for faster paced, higher scoring teams and not known for their defense. Conference games this year have averaged 158.6PPG and today’s number offers some value. When these same two teams met earlier this season they combined for 184 total points and an OVER which tie into a trend for these two conference foes. IPFW has a 22-8 OVER record their last 30 conference games, while WIU has played OVER in 14 of their last 18 in Summit League play. In their most recent action, IPFW (+ foe) is averaging 174 total points per game while Western Illinois and their opponents are averaging 156PPG. Vegas has set this number a shade too low and we’ll step in with a play on the OVER! |
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02-24-17 | Nets +10 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ASA #857 Brooklyn Nets (+10) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - The Nuggets are off a game last night in Sacramento which resulted in a 16-point road loss. They shot 44% for game which isn’t horrible but they didn’t play much defense, allowing the Kings to hit 52% from the field, 50% from the beyond the arc. Denver is just 2-10 SU (4-8 ATS) when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 9PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 12 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-11 SU & ATS in those games. Brooklyn is playing better even though it hasn’t translated to a ton of wins but they have covered 3 of their last five games and have a negative differential of -6PPG which is nearly 3-points better than their season differential. Of their last 9 losses, none have come by more than 9-points or tonight’s spread. We’re not sure how Denver is a favorite of this size when their defense is allowing over 51% shooting their last five games and even the All-Star break didn’t fix that. Brooklyn clearly isn’t a great defensive team but the Nuggets are last in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.134 points per possession. In the lone meeting this season the Nets did win at home by 5-points which is 6th straight time they’ve beaten Denver. Grab the points with Brooklyn. |
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02-24-17 | Central Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 176.5 | Top | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
Today we play UNDER 176.5 in the Central Michigan @ Toledo game. The league average total points scored per game in the MAC this year is 152 and today we have a Total that is set nearly 20 points higher. Our predictive model projects a total on this game that is full 12-points less than the number Vegas has posted which is HIGHLY unusual. Toledo is the dominate team here and will dictate tempo which is key. The Rockets are 12th in the conference when it comes to tempo or pace so they’ll want to play slow. Not to mention they are coming off a huge game against Western Michigan and have a bigger game on deck versus Ball State. Yes, the Chippewas want to play fast (1st in MAC pace) but again, Toledo won’t allow it. On their home floor, in conference games, the Rockets and their opponents have NOT totaled more than 167 points and those contests averaged 142 total points. In the first meeting of the season these two combined for 184 total points but that was at Central Michigan. CMU has had issues shooting the basketball of late as they are averaging less than 42% as a team from the field their last five games. The UNDER has cashed 7 of the last 9 meetings and should win again tonight with this inflated number! |
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02-23-17 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois OVER 146 | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OVER 146 SOUTH DAKOTA @ WESTERN ILLINOIS - We have a fantastic play for you tonight on the OVER in the South Dakota @ Western Illinois game. This Summit League game has all the makings of a very high scoring game and we expect plenty of points by both teams here. When we run the numbers through our predictive math model we come up with a Total that is 6.5 points higher than the posted number tonight. That’s a substantial difference by our algorithm and immediately gets our attention. Summit League games average 158 total points per game and this number set by Vegas is substantially lower than that. S Dakota is the 2nd fastest paced team in the conference and Western Illinois is the 4th fastest. Defensively these two teams are top four in terms of efficiency ratings but ‘defense’ is a loose term in this conference and both teams have been giving up a ton of points lately. South Dakota has given up an average of 80PPG their last five games on 46% shooting by opponents. In that same 5 games span Western Illinois has allowed 83PPG on 48% shooting by foes. There is one team in the conference that is very like both teams and that’s Nebraska-Omaha. South Dakota recently played at NEOM and they combined for 174 total points. Western Illinois hosted NEOM on Feb 1st and they combined for 146 total points. The Over has cashed in 5 straight SD road games. The Over is also 9-3 the last Western Illinois home games. See the trend…BET OVER! |
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02-23-17 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas UNDER 147.5 | Top | 85-67 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
ASA UNDER 147.5 in the Louisiana Tech @ North Texas game, 8PM ET - Based on our math model this game projects out to have under 143.5 total points and we agree with its prognosis. The league average for total points scored in this conference 142 and we feel these two teams will be much closer to that number than the one Vegas has posted. When these same two teams met in late January they combined for 138 total points which was the O/U the oddsmakers had suggested. Which also shows the value we are getting here as tonight's number is much higher than the 138 from the first meeting. North Texas is the 3rd worst efficiency offensive team in the conference at just .956 points per possession and the 309th (out of 351) overall eFG% team in the nation at just 47%. The Mean Green will have a hard time scoring here against a La Tech team that has the 3rd best efficiency defense in Conference USA, allowing just .954 points per possession. The Bulldogs average 80PPG at home on the season but that number dips to just 72PPG on the road. With La Tech being the superior team they'll dictate tempo in this one and should keep this from being a high scoring affair. In their 7 conference road games the Bulldogs and their opponents have average 138 combined total points. |
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02-22-17 | Minnesota v. Maryland -4 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
PLAY ON: MARYLAND (-4) over Minnesota - We love the spot to play on the Maryland Terrapins over the visiting Minnesota Gophers. While Minnesota is coming off a hard fought, emotional home win over Michigan and in for a letdown, the Terps are off a disappointing loss on the road in Wisconsin. We expect a bounce back here for Maryland who is a solid 12-3 SU at home with a point differential of +8PPG. Minnesota is 4-4 SU on the road this year but they’ve struggled shooting it away from home by hitting just 40% from the field. In terms of defensive efficiency rating these two teams are relatively even allowing 1.005 points per possession (Maryland) and 1.004 PPP (Minnesota) but in terms of offense the Terps are MUCH better. Maryland has the 3rd most efficient offense in the Big Ten at 1.082PPP while the Gophers are 11th in the conference at 1.023PPP. MD has the 4th best eFG% shooting statistics in the B10 at 53.7% while the Gophers are 12th at 46.9%. Maryland has covered 12 of their last 16 Conference games while the Gophs are 7-9 ATS their last 16 conference roadies. We expect Maryland to get off to a good start at home and Minnesota just doesn’t have an offense capable of playing catchup. Lay the points! |
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02-22-17 | Furman v. East Tennessee State OVER 141 | Top | 81-93 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: #765/766 OVER the 141 Total Furman @ East Tennessee State, 7PM ET- We are going to play OVER the Total in the East Tennessee State versus Furman tonight in the Southern Conference showdown. First place is on the line tonight as Furman currently leads the SoCon with a 13-3 record but ETSU is right behind them at 12-3. These are basically the top two teams in the SoCon in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and when we look at similar teams and home/road dichotomies we expect a high scoring game tonight. ETSU starts 4 seniors who will be playing their final home game in front of a sellout crowd (lead conference in attendance and the fans will be rabid tonight). The Bucs are also playing with same season revenge as they had a HORRIBLE shooting night at Furman (14% from 3-point line, 37% overall) and lost 62-75 for 137 Total points. That was uncharacteristic for ETSU who is the 7thth best shooting team in the nation at 49.3%. Furman can also light it up from the field as they rank 40th in the country in shooting at 47.4% as a team. As we touched on earlier, Furman is 2nd in the SoCon in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.111 points per possession and have the 2nd best eFG% at 56.9%. They typically take 17.9 seconds to get a shot off which is 6th in the conference. ETSU is 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.110PPP and 1st in eFG% at 57.7%. They play fast too, averaging just 16.1 seconds to take a shot which is 2nd fastest in the SoCon. East Tenn State has a goal of getting to 80 points as they are a perfect 12-0 SU this year when they top that mark. Our Math Model projects a Total of 146.5 on this game and the league average is nearly 148PPG so you can see for yourself the value we are getting at 141. |
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02-21-17 | Purdue v. Penn State UNDER 146 | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
We are going to play UNDER 146 in the Purdue @ Penn State game tonight. We love several different dynamics to this wager including a line that is 6-points higher than Big Ten games average, plus the fact a high percentage of public money has been bet on the OVER already but the line isn't moving. That tells me they'll take all the action they can on OVER because they like UNDER. Purdue is in a tough scheduling spot here and could be flat for this contest. They are off a big win over Michigan State and have a road date at Michigan on deck. Plus, they beat this PSU team 77-52 earlier this season. The Boilermakers have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten allowing just .97 points per possession. In their last five contests they have held foes to an average of just 38.3% shooting which is ridiculously low. Penn State is 'average' or 7th in the Big Ten in DEFF allowing 1.016PPP and they've been solid at home defensively allowing just 68.7PPG on their home floor and 40.4% shooting by opponents. Both teams struggle shooting when on the road (Purdue 42.1%) and at home (PSU 41.5%). The Nittany Lions just hosted a very similar team to Purdue (OEFF, DEFF and pace) in Maryland a few weeks back and they combined for 134 total points. Purdue hosted Rutgers just last week who has very similar stats to Penn State and they combined for 129 total points. The Under is on a 19-6 run the last 25 meetings, 4-1 Under last 5 games for Purdue and 9-4 L13 home games for PSU. |
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02-19-17 | Michigan v. Minnesota | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA 10STAR PLAY ON: #862 @MINNESOTA (-1) over Michigan, 7PM ET We like the situation to play on the Minnesota Gophers minus the short number at home over the Michigan Wolverines. Minnesota has the 3rd highest RPI ratings among Big Ten teams and has played a stronger schedule to date than Michigan. The Gophs also have the interior defenders (3rd in nation in blocked shots) to hold the Wolves front court at bay. Michigan is due for a letdown after their 3 straight emotional wins over instate rival Michigan State, at Indiana and a home win over Wisconsin. Minnesota is off 3 straight wins too but they were favored in all three and expected to win. The defensive advantages for the Gophers is dramatic as they have one of the best eFG% defenses in the Big Ten while the Wolverines have the second worst. When playing on the road the Wolverines shoot just 42% but allow foes to hit nearly 53%. Minnesota on the other hand shoots near 45% at home but hold foes to just 39% on their home court. Michigan has a negative road differential of -7PPG on the road this season while the Gophers have a home differential of nearly +11PPG. We like the number in this game as the Gophers were just a -4.5 point favorite at home over Maryland (2nd in Big 10) and is laying less in this situation. Minnesota is 14-3 SU at home this season while the Wolves are just 1-6 SU away. We will lay the short number with the Gophers here. |
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02-19-17 | Connecticut v. Temple -2 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10STAR PLAY ON: #868 @TEMPLE (-2) over Connecticut, 4PM ET - We are playing on Temple at home over UConn on Sunday afternoon. When these two teams last met in mid-January the Huskies were a -1.5 point favorite and won handily after Temple shot horrendously from the field (35.9%) compared to UConn hitting over 52% from the field. Look at the tremendous line value we are getting here as Temple should be at least 6 or 7 in this contest. We also like the scheduling dynamics here with UConn coming off a win over Memphis, in which they were down 17, and had to expend a ton of energy in that comeback win. Temple has been up and down but have some impressive wins on their resume over Florida State, West Virginia and two wins over 18-9 Memphis. The Owls have beaten the Huskies two straight years on this floor in regular season play. Temple gets it done offensively by making 3-pointers (25th in 3-point attempts per game) and they shot it below their season average (36%) in the first meeting (29%) but that should change back at home. In fact, Owls Obi Enechionyia was 1-for-10 on threes, a key to the game. Enechionyia is 6 feet 10, and UConn's big men are not used to getting out and guarding the perimeter. The Huskies are just 2-8 SU against top 100 RPI teams this season and Temple is 94th. Lastly, Temple's strength of schedule is much better than UConn's and we feel they get a comfortable home win today! |
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02-18-17 | East Tennessee State v. Chattanooga -140 | Top | 65-51 | Loss | -140 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
#680 @TENNESSEE CHATTANOOGA (ML) over East Tennessee State, 5PM ET - Scroll down to the added games for this wager as we will invest in Tennessee Chattanooga minus the points at home over East Tennessee State. We've followed this conference very closely this season and have had this date circled for the past few weeks. Chattanooga is 3rd in the conference looking up at ETSU and playing with revenge from an earlier loss this year on the road. A win here by Matt McCall (48-13 SU in his second year as a college coach) and the Mocs will ensure a bye into the quarterfinals of the conference tourney and bolster their odds at wining the Southern Conference. Tenn-Chatt is very good at home with a 11-1 record overall and a 31-2 mark their last 33 on their home court. This season the Mocs have won their home games by an average of 12PPG and shoot 49% at home which is 41st in the nation. Chattanooga swept ETSU last year but lost their only meeting this season 76-71 at ETSU. ETSU was +7 in free throws and made a few more 3's which was the ultimate difference in the game. The Buccaneers are a solid team but they have lost 4 road games already this year, 2 in conference play. Based on comparable opponents, lines on those games it's clear to us Tennessee Chattanooga should be a much bigger favorite than they are today in this game. In fact, the Mocs were -10.5 points at home earlier this season over Furman (who leads the conference for now) and won that game by 16 points. Both teams shoot it well but Tenn-Chat has played the tougher schedule and is one of the best teams in the league in turning over their opponents. ETSU on the other hand doesn't value the basketball is and is last in the SoCon when it comes to turning it over offensively. Tenn-Chat is 22-3 SU at home their last 25 conference home contests and get a big win today over East Tennessee State. Not close!!! |
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02-17-17 | VCU v. Richmond +2.5 | Top | 84-73 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Richmond +2.5 over VCU, Friday at 9:00 PM ET This is a huge rivalry game with both schools located in Richmond and just 6 miles apart. VCU shot 52% from the field in the first meeting this year and won a competitive game 81-74. The Rams were also +12 in FT’s made in that game so for Richmond to stay tight throughout with VCU shooting very well and having a big edge at the line was impressive. Now the Spiders get their chance at redemption, this time at home. VCU has had some big home wins in A10 play but the road has been a different story. The Rams are 2-2 their last 4 conference road games but they could easily be 0-4 in those games. In their two road wins during that stretch @ GW and @ St Bonnies, they had some very lucky end of game situations take place. Versus GW the Rams trailed by 1 with 0.4 seconds remaining and drew a charging foul on an inbounds play then made both FT’s to win. Versus St Bonnies they led by 2 when the Bonnies made a 3-pointer to “win” the game with 0.4 seconds remaining. Problem was, the fans stormed the court and were assessed the technical because the game wasn’t officially over. VCU sent the game to OT where they eventually won. This team is ready to get nipped on the road and we think that happens here. Richmond is the #1 shooting team in the league (54.6 eFG%) and they don’t turn the ball over very often which is key vs VCU. The host has covered 70% of the last 21 meetings in this cross town rivalry (14-6-1 ATS) and we like the Spiders to pull the “upset” here. |
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02-16-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut -4.5 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UConn -4.5 over Memphis, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET The Huskies are playing easily their best basketball of the season. After starting the AAC with just a 2-4 record their first 6 conference games, UConn has since won 6 of their last 7. That puts them at 7-5 in league play which is a half game behind tonight’s opponent, Memphis, for 4th place in the conference. These two met in January in Memphis the Tigers came away with a 70-61 win. UConn made a paltry 37% of their shots and were terrible from deep hitting just 4 of their 20 three points attempts. Since that game the Huskies have shot the ball light year’s better as they now lead the AAC in 3-point shooting percentage (conference games only) making over 41%. They also hit 76% of their FT’s which is 2nd in the conference as well. Memphis ranks near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and shooting percentage and they’ve made it to 70 points only once in their last six games. After shooting much better than normal in their first game vs UConn (47%) we expect the Tigers to struggle offensively here vs one of the top defenses in the nation (UConn ranks 16th nationally in defensive eFG%). Connecticut should destroy Memphis on the boards here as they did in the first game (+20 margin) and if that happens, they will cruise here. Since losing their home opener in AAC play back on Dec 28th, the Huskies have won 5 straight at home with 4 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. We’ll side with the red hot Huskies at home laying a marginal number. |
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02-16-17 | Celtics v. Bulls OVER 212.5 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
PLAY OVER 212.5 CELTICS @ BULLS - We will play OVER in the Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls game tonight. The Celtics played last night and clearly when they play games without rest their defense suffers. When playing the second night of a back to back the Celtics have an 8-4 OVER record and they allow an average of 120PPG. In their last eight games in this scheduling situation they are 8-0 OVER with the average total points in those games being 225PPG. Even the Bulls offense, that averages just 1.071 points per possession, should score points against a fatigued Boston defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rankings. Boston is going to score here too as they have one of the better offenses in the league averaging 108.5PPG with the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA. The Bulls defense (or lack of) has allowed 107 or more points in 9 of their last ten games, and most recently allowed 117, 115 and 123 against three similar teams to Boston. C's over streak of 10-2 their last 12 on the road while Bulls over in 7 of their last ten at home against a team with a +.500 record. |
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02-15-17 | Knicks v. Thunder -7 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER (-7) over NY Knicks, 9:30PM ET - Tonight we love the opportunity to play against a bad team (NY Knicks) off a big upset win, playing on the road, against a superior team (OKC) which is off a loss. New York beat the San Antonio Spurs at home on Sunday which makes them just 7-20 SU their last 27 games and puts them in a bet against situation, as they are 1-6 ATS their last seven when off a win. New York is just 9-18 SU on the road this season and they have an average point differential of minus -5.1PPG which ranks in the bottom 12 teams in the league. On the flip side the Thunder are off a blowout loss (7-3-1 ATS at home off a loss) in Washington where the team missed 24 consecutive shots, a NBA record. Russell Westbrook struggled with just 17 points but a lot of the Thunders poor play was the fact they were coming off a huge game versus Golden State. The Thunder are 19-8 SU at home this year, 13-4 their last seventeen. OKC has also covered 11 of fourteen at home against sub .500 teams which tells us they win by larger margins. Easy call with OKC at home tonight over the NY Knicks. |
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02-14-17 | Kings v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 97-96 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
PLAY OVER 217 Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers, Tuesday 10:35PM ET - Our play tonight is OVER in the Sacramento Kings @ L.A. Lakers game. Pace is clearly one of the first things to look at when betting Over/Unders in the NBA and the current numbers for each team support a faster paced game tonight. The Kings on the season are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA (4th slowest) but in their last five games they are averaging more possessions per game and rank 14th fastest. The Lakers have been one of the faster paced teams all season (6th) but in their last five games they are 2nd at 103.1 possessions per game. Over the course of their last five games the Kings are averaging 107PPG while the Lakers check in at 112PPG. While the Kings have been better defensively than the Lakers over their recent stretch, L.A. has allowed 114PPG. OK, so we have pace what about scoring? Well both of these teams rank in the bottom 7 of the league in field goal percentage defense against so both should make plenty of shots. Both teams have 5-1 OVER streaks as the Kings have gone OVER the number in 5 of their last six on the road while the Lakers have gone OVER in 5 of their last six anywhere. The play here is OVER the Total! |
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02-14-17 | Colorado State +1 v. Wyoming | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +1 over Wyoming, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET CSU is playing the best basketball in the Mountain West right now. They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback coming by 3 points at the hands of 1st place Boise State. They have shown they can get it done on the road winning 4 of their 6 away games in MWC play and outscoring their opponents on the road. The Rams have also covered 8 of their last 9 road games. This is a team that is very tough to contain offensively. They rank #1 in the Mountain West in offensive efficiency, 3-point shooting percentage, and offensive rebounding. On top of that, they make 75% of their FT’s. Wyoming can’t match offensively or on the boards here as they rank near the bottom of the conference in both. They face a Ram defense that allows opponents to shoot only 38% on the road so the struggles should continue here. The Cowboys have only played 2 of the top 5 teams in the MWC at home this year and they’ve lost to both (Boise & Nevada). The Cowboys have played just 4 overall this year against the top 5 in this conference (CSU, San Diego St, Nevada, New Mexico, and Boise) and they are 0-4 in those games. They are just 2-2 at home since mid-January with their only wins coming by 1 point over UNLV and by 2 points in 4 overtimes vs Fresno. This is a double revenger for Colorado State as they lost both to Wyoming last year – this is first meeting this year. We’ll gladly take the better team getting points here. |
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02-13-17 | Thunder v. Wizards -5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
PLAY ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS (-5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET - We're going to fade OKC here and play on a hot Washington team at home. The Thunder are very good at home but not nearly as good when on the road with a 12-16 SU record. In fact, the Thunder have a -5.5 average point differential away from home with is in the bottom third of the NBA. Washington on the other hand is in the top 10 in home point differential at +5.5PPGand they stand 23-7 SU on their home court. The Wiz are 18-1 SU their last 19 at home and the lone loss was in OT to the Cavaliers and only 2 of those home wins were by less than 5-points. Shooting will play a major role tonight as OKC shoots just 43.6% on the road this season compared to Washington who hits nearly 49% at home. The Thunder are coming off a couple huge emotional games after beating Cleveland at home then losing to the Warriors on Saturday so they should be a little flat on the road in Washington. OKC is just 5-7 ATS on the road this year off a loss so that's not a concern for us here. Wizard come into tonight on 2 days rest and have covered 4 of their last five in that scheduling situation, plus they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 at home. Lay it! |
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02-12-17 | Pelicans v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS (-3.5) over New Orleans Pelicans - We like the Sacramento Kings at home over the visiting New Orleans Pelicans and expect a double digit win by the host. New Orleans is 7-18 SU on the road this season with a negative point differential of -5.3PPG which is in the bottom half of the league. So much of what the Pelicans do is reliant on center Anthony Davis who is coming off a 42 point, 13 rebound and 7 assist game against Minnesota the other night but he’ll have his hands full tonight with fellow Kentuckian DeMarcus Cousins. Prior to their road win the other night in Minnesota the Pelicans had lost 5 straight away from home and three of those losses were by 7+ points. New Orleans is also just 7-13 SU when coming off a win this season and have failed to cover 5 straight games in that role. Sacramento is 11-15 SU at home which isn’t great but they’ve won 3 of their last four at home and all 3 wins came against quality teams (Atlanta, Boston and Golden State). Cousins is good when he’s motivated as he will be today facing Davis. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Pelicans on this floor by 8 as a 6-point chalk. Lay it again! |
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02-12-17 | Northwestern +10.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northwestern +10.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET Too many points here. Wisconsin continues to win but not easily and not by wide margins. Their defense has been great but their offense has left a lot to be desired. 5 of their last 7 wins were down to the wire games that weren’t decided until very late. Over their last 4 games the Badgers are averaging just 63 PPG and shooting only 37% from the field. A few of Wisconsin’s key players are banged up right now including point guard Koenig who is nursing a leg injury and not nearly 100%. Northwestern comes in with an 18-6 record and only one of those losses have come by double digits. The Cats have also struggled a bit offensively with leading scorer Lindsey out with mono, however this team plays very good defense. They are ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and should give a struggling Wisconsin offense all kinds of trouble. This should be a lower scoring game with the total set at 125 making the points very valuable here. NW has had extra time to prepare after playing on Tuesday while Wisconsin was in Nebraska playing an overtime game on Thursday. This is a huge game for Northwestern’s NCAA resume and we think we’ll get another nailbiter in Madison. Take the points. |
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02-12-17 | Cincinnati v. SMU -5 | Top | 51-60 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* SMU -5 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET The Mustangs have been waiting for this one. They come into this game with an 11-1 conference record and their only loss was @ Cincy by a final score of 66-64. The Bearcats are 11-0 in league play so this one could be for all the marbles. SMU had their chances in that 2-point los missing a 3 pointer with 7 seconds remaining and a layup with 3 seconds left that would have pushed the game to OT. This time they get the Bearcats at home where SMU has simply been dominant. They are 14-0 at home with their wins coming by an average margin of 22 points. Their AAC home games have resulted in wins of 40, 21, 20, 19, and 14 points. All but 1 of their 14 home wins have come by more than 10 points. They are 8-1 ATS at home covering those by a combined 90 points or a full 10 PPG above the spread. Cincy is obviously very good with a perfect AAC record. However they’ve played 4 of their last 5 games at home and their one road tilt @ Tulsa the Bearcats had to come from 9 down with 6:00 minutes to win by 2. In their 7 road games, Cincinnati is 6-1, however they are averaging only 62 PPG in those games and shooting just 38% from the field and 28% from beyond the arc. They are facing a Mustang team that hits almost 50% of their shots at home while allowing opponents to shoot just 35%. SMU has won 33 of their last 34 games at home and this is one of their biggest home games ever. We think they rise to the occasion and roll in this one. |
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02-11-17 | Magic v. Mavs -6 | Top | 80-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
514 Dallas Mavericks (-6) over Orlando Magic, 9PM ET - We like the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic. These two teams are trending in opposite directions as the Mavericks got off to a slow start to the season but have now won 10 of their last 15 games. Included in that streak is a 5-1 run their last six home games with all of those victories coming by more than today's spread. Orlando on the other hand is in a funk to say the least with a 4-15 SU record their last 19 games. Included in that run is a 2-9 SU road record and the majority of those road defeats were in blowout fashion. Looking at differentials we find the Mavs have an average point differential of +1PPG their last five games while the Magic are a negative -10.8PPG their last five. Orlando has the 4th worst road point differential at -7PPG and rank near the bottom of the league in road offensive efficiency and DEFF. The Mavs have covered 8 straight at home and get a double digit win again today! |
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02-11-17 | Green Bay +3 v. Wright State | Top | 79-88 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UW Green Bay +3 over Wright State, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - Horizon League Game of the Month UWGB is off a 69-67 loss @ Northern Kentucky on Thursday. Despite the tight loss the Phoenix remain in 2nd place in the Horizon but have dropped 2 games behind Valpo making this a huge game. With just 5 games remaining, Green Bay needs this win to keep their shot at the conference title alive. We faded UWGB on Thursday as we felt it was a great spot with Northern Kentucky playing very well and the Phoenix coming off a huge win over conference leader Valpo. Even with that, GB played well and had a shot to win. Now off a loss in a must win spot, we think they get it. GB has been a solid road team in Horizon play with a 3-3 record and two of their three losses coming by 2 points or fewer. The Phoenix whipped WSU at home by 17 this year and they were far from efficient offensively shooting only 42% in the win. Wright State is off a home win Thursday vs 2nd to last place UWM but the Raiders have already lost 2 home games despite not hosting any of the Horizon’s top 3 yet this season (Valpo, UWGB, and Oakland). GB has covered covered 5 of their last 6 this year as a dog and we think they win this one outright. |
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02-10-17 | Spurs v. Pistons UNDER 209.5 | Top | 103-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
Tonight we like UNDER in the San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons game. Pace or tempo are critical aspects when handicapping Totals and tonight we have 6th (Spurs) and 7th (Pistons) slowest paced teams in the NBA squaring off. The average total points scored per game is 210 and the number on tonight's game is hovering around that total even though we have two of the slowest paced teams in the league. While San Antonio is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.128 points per possession the Pistons are 20th in that same category at 1.067PPP. Defense is another story though as both rank in the top 7 in points allowed per possession. Two teams that play slow and great defense and only one that is better than average in scoring means a very low scoring game tonight. A similar team to Detroit is Memphis and the Spurs just played the Grizzlies and totaled 163 points. The last time these two opponents squared off was back in November and that game ended with 182 total points. Tremendous value with an UNDER bet here. |
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02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 over Utah Jazz, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we play on the Dallas Mavericks at home plus the points over the Utah Jazz. Utah is off a blowout win last night in New Orleans and are facing a rested Mavs team off a pair of losses including a home loss to the Blazers most recently. When playing without rest the Jazz are 7-5 SU on the year but they are just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight in that scheduling situation. Prior to their two game losing streak the Mavericks had won 6 of eight games and one of those losses was at home against the Jazz by 5-points in OT. Dallas is 8-9 SU at home off a loss this year but they've covered 7 o their last nine in that situation and 7 straight home covers overall in any role. The dog is also 4-1 last five meetings and Dallas has dominated the Jazz on this court for years. Dallas is playing much better of late and we expect a home win here by the Mavs. |
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02-08-17 | Suns +9 v. Grizzlies | Top | 91-110 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Phoenix Suns (+9) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz are in an unfamiliar role tonight as a 9-point chalk which is the largest pointspread they've been favored by all season long. Memphis has some other scheduling dynamics going against them here as they are off a huge win over the Spurs and have Golden State next on the schedule. Not to mention they recently beat the Suns by 19 in Phoenix. I watched that game live the Grizzlies hit a franchise record 16 3-pointers while making 57% from beyond the arc. Don't expect a repeat performance as the Grizzlies are the 21st worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Memphis has a below average home point differential in the NBA at +2.4PPG and now they're being asked to cover near double digits in this scheduling situation? No way! Phoenix hasn't been bad on the road lately (4 straight covers) with a 5-point loss at New Orleans, 2-point win at Sacramento, 7-point loss at Denver and a pair of wins in Toronto and New York. The Suns will be focused here after their embarrassing loss to Memphis just a few days ago. Grab the points. |
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02-08-17 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State UNDER 148.5 | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 148.5 Points - Baylor @ Oklahoma State, Wed at 7:00 PM ET Baylor is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (#330) and they know to win this game they have to make it a grinder. OSU wants to get up and down, however if one of the two teams wants to play slow, they usually get control of the tempo. That will be the case here similar to the first meeting this year when Baylor topped OSU 61-57. The Bears have one of the top defenses in the nation ranking 6th in defensive efficiency, 8th in eFG% defense while allowing just 61 PPG on the season. They’ve allowed only 3 opponents to reach 70 points in Big 12 play. The Cowboys offense has been putting points on the board, however they’ve played mainly fast paced teams as of late. Those type of teams play right into the hands of the Okie State squad. There are only really 2 slower paced teams in the conference (Baylor & Texas Tech) and in those games the OSU total points scored were 118 & 147, both under today’s number. In their game vs Tech where the two totaled 147, the team’s combined to shoot 50% overall and nearly 50% from 3 and still stayed UNDER the number. We don’t envision those type of shooting numbers tonight. We know Baylor’s defense is top notch but OSU’s is much better than their overall season numbers. They’ve changed their defensive philosophy over the last few weeks changing from a pressure defense to more of a man to man, gap help defense. It’s really helped as in their last 5 games their opponents have only hit 43% of their shots. Baylor’s offense is struggling shooting 35%, 42%, and 38% their last 3 games so don’t expect them to break out here. Baylor knows how they have to play to win games – slow with defense. Of their 10 Big 12 games this year, 9 have stayed under this current total. Add another one tonight. Play the UNDER here. |
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02-07-17 | Syracuse v. Clemson -3.5 | Top | 82-81 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Clemson -3.5 over Syracuse, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - ASA's ACC GAME OF THE MONTH Clemson is in must win mode at home tonight. This is a veteran team that has aspirations of making the NCAA tourney. Sitting at 13-9 overall and 3-7 in the ACC, this becomes a must win game at home. This team is better than their record. They’ve played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation with only 4 of their 24 opponents ranked outside the top 100. Of their 9 losses, 6 of come by 6 points or fewer. In ACC play they’ve lost to UNC in OT, UVA by 4, Virginia Tech by 1, and Notre Dame by 5. The Tigers should be extra motivated here coming off their worst performance of the season, a rare blowout loss @ FSU on Sunday. Coach Brad Brownell was disgusted with his team’s performance and because of the lop sided loss, he was able to spread his minutes out getting the starters some rest. Only one player played more than 25 minutes and 9 different players saw double digit minutes. The offense hit only 37% of their shots and a normally solid defense allowed FSU to shoot a ridiculous 66% for the game. You can bet Clemson will play with fire in their bellies tonight. Syracuse has won 4 straight but 3 of those have come at home. Their only road win during that stretch was in OT @ NC State. The fact is, that’s the only road win this season for the Orange who come into this one with a 1-5 mark in road games. Not only that, all 5 of their road losses have come by at least 10 points. Their defense has been shredded away from home allowing over 51% from the field. Expect Clemson’s offense, who averages 80 PPG at home, to get back on track tonight. We’ll side with the desperate home team tonight. |
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02-06-17 | Thunder v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 90-93 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We successfully played on the OKC Thunder yesterday at home in their win over Portland but today we will turn around and play against them. From a scheduling standpoint, this is a bad spot for the Thunder having just played at home yesterday while the Pacers were at home resting. This is also the Thunder’s 3rd game in a four-day span. OKC has been great at home this season but haven’t played as well on the road where they are 12-15 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.6PPG which is the bottom half of the league in that category. When playing without rest the Thunder are 3-7 SU this year with a differential average of -5PPG. On the flip side the Pacers are playing lights out right now and are on a 6-game winning streak, including 3 straight at home. Indiana is 19-6 SU at home this year, 8-1 their last 9 and have the 10th best home point differential in the NBA of +5.8PPG. After a slow start and dealing with several key injuries the Pacers are finally living up to expectations and this is a perfect spot to play on them at home laying a marginal number. |
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02-06-17 | East Tennessee State v. Wofford +4 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Wofford +4 over ETSU, Monday at 7:00 PM ET It’s a no brainer to at least consider Wofford at home if they are getting points. That’s because this team is 32-4 SU at home their last 36 including 8-1 this year with their only loss coming by 1-point in overtime. They’ve been tabbed a home underdog only twice since the start of the 2014 season. After playing 3 consecutive road games, Wofford is just happy to be back at home as they haven’t played on this court since January 25th. The Terriers are playing well despite playing three straight on the road winning two of those. They have won 5 of their last 7 overall with their only two losses coming @ Western Carolina by 6 and @ ETSU by 7. In that game @ ETSU the Terriers were outshot 58% to 45% yet it still was close throughout. Now they get ETSU at home where Wofford shoots 52% on the season. Wofford in the most efficient offense in the Southern Conference and the 4th best FT shooting team in the nation hitting almost 80% from the charity stripe (ETSU hit 66% of their FT’s). The Buccaneers are playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and the host has won this game 8 of the last 10 meetings. We think Wofford has a great shot to win this and even if they don’t, we have some points to work with. |
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02-05-17 | Blazers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 3PM ET - Play on the OKC Thunder minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers are not a good road team where they are just 8-18 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.9PPG which is 8th worst in the NBA. The Blazers are 1-3 SU their last four road games and two of those defeats were at Charlotte and Philadelphia who are not as good as the Thunder team they’ll face today. OKC is clearly not as good as they were last season but they still enjoy a 17-7 SU home record this season with an average point differential of +6.7PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Thunder are even better at home when it comes to the West, having won 13 of 15 this season and 7 straight by an average of 14PPG. The Thunder have covered 4 of the last five meetings here against the Blazers and with Portland’s guard Damian Lillard struggling with his shooting stroke (under 40% last 5 from field, 32% from beyond the arc) right now this is a perfect spot to fade the Blazers and play on the Thunder. OKC by double digits! |
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02-04-17 | UAB -8 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
#585 – 10* TOP PLAY on UAB Blazers (-) over UTSA – Saturday at 4:00 PM ET – The Roadrunners are off of their first home loss of the season and will now be looking to bounce back at home but they are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. First off, taking a longer look at UTSA, the only reason they had been undefeated on their home floor was that they played a very weak non-conference schedule and then, in CUSA action, their first three home games came against Florida International, Florida Atlantic, and UTEP. The combined record of those 3 teams is 19-44. Since UTSA's most recent home win, they have lost 4 straight games and that included the home loss to Middle Tennessee State Thursday. All 5 conference losses that the Roadrunners have been dealt have been decided by double digits! The average margin in UTSA's 5 CUSA losses is 16.8 points per game. The Runners just are too weak offensively to keep up with UAB, especially with the Blazers off of a loss. UAB comes into this ready to attack after a loss at UTEP on Thursday. The Blazers have won all 8 games this season when off of a loss. Having yet to lose two straight games this season we don't foresee that changing here either. UTSA has been held under 39.4% from the field in 5 straight games. UAB, before their road loss to the Miners, had knocked down at least 50% from the field in 6 straight games! Comparing the offensive production of these two teams, the Blazers are better across the board as they shoot better overall and from the free throw line and from beyond the arc. Before the loss at UTEP, the Blazers had shot at least 44.4% from three point land in five straight games. The Blazers are in a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the conference and, after this road game, they don't play again until Thursday and that begins a stretch where they know they can make a run as 5 of their last 7 regular season games are at home. UAB will be fully focused on the task at hand as they've bounced back from a loss every single time this season. The key here of course is not just the SU win but getting the ATS cover and there is every reason to believe the Blazers will get the job done in that regard. When UTSA loses, they lose big. When UAB is off of a loss, they turn up the heat on defense in their next game. In terms of the offenses, there is simply no comparison here. UAB had averaged 82 points per game (including regulation time only) in their 7 games prior to the loss at UTEP. Looking at UTSA, the Roadrunners have not scored more than 71 points in any of their 9 conference game this season. In fact, the Runners are averaging just 61.7 points per game in conference games this season. This one has all the right ingredients for a road rout. Lay it! UAB for a Top Play Saturday! |
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02-03-17 | Bulls v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
PLAY ON: HOUSTON ROCKETS (-6.5) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We like the Houston Rockets at home over the Chicago Bulls tonight. Much has been made about the Bulls poor team chemistry right now with Jimmy Butler, D-Wade and Rajon Rondo and this is certainly a team with some problems behind the scenes. Granted they have won two straight game but a lot has to do with a favorable schedule as they beat the 76ers at home then won in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The Bulls shot an uncharacteristic 60% from the field in that game which was WELL above their season average of just 43.9% which is 3rd worst in the NBA. Chicago also caught the Thunder off of 2 HUGE games against the Cavaliers and Spurs on the road and were playing the 2nd night of a back to back. On the flip side the Rockets should have some extra motivation here as they are coming off an upset loss at home last night to the Atlanta Hawks. Houston is the 6th best shooting team in the NBA at 46.5% but last night they struggled from the field hitting just 37.6% of their shots against a Hawks defense that is 8th in the NBA in opponents FG% against. The Bulls are 18th in that same defensive category. The Rockets have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.8PPG. Houston is 14-3 SU off a loss, 5-1 at home and they have won 11 of 12 games this season when playing without rest. In fact, the Rockets 11 wins when playing without rest have come by an average of 13PPG. Lay the points! |
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02-02-17 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 228 | Top | 133-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
PLAY UNDER WARRIORS @ CLIPPERS, 10:35PM ET - Tonight we'll play UNDER 228 in the Golden State Warriors @ L.A. Clippers game. Right now I'm guessing you're not a fan of this wager considering these two teams just met last Saturday with the Warriors winning 144-98. Now Golden State is the BEST shooting team in the NBA at 50% from the field and they make 39% of their 3-point attempts. So it was abnormal that they made 62% of their FG attempts in the last meeting with the Clippers and 17 3-pointers which is 5 more than their season average. What also supports our thinking here is the fact the Clippers have a top 8 defense in terms of overall shooting percentage defense and 3-point percentage D. L.A. coach Doc Rivers has reminded his players just how embarrassing that loss was and you can bet they'll be much more focused on the defensive end of the court tonight. Golden State averages 5 less points per game on the road compared to at home and allow less too. The Clippers at home average 203 total points per game and are one of just 6 teams that allow less than 100PPG on their home court. These two teams are two of the 12 best defensive efficiency ratings teams in the league with the Warriors #1 allowing just 1.036 points per possession. The number on tonight's game is ridiculously high and the value lies with UNDER. In the last 10 meetings only 2 have resulted with more points than the number set on tonight's game. BET UNDER! |
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02-02-17 | Missouri +21.5 v. Florida | Top | 54-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri Tigers (+) over Florida Gators, Thursday at 7 PM ET: Game 711 |
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02-01-17 | Grizzlies -145 v. Nuggets | Top | 119-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (ML wager) over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - We will play on the Memphis Grizzlies at the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets are off a game last night in Los Angeles and the final score isn't really a good indicator of just how poorly they played. They shot just 38% for the first three quarters of the game, then gave up 39 points in the final stanza to the Lakers. Denver is just 2-7 SU when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 6PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 11 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-10 SU & ATS in those games. Memphis is playing better now since they've gotten healthy and have a 13-12 SU road record with an average point differential of -1PPG when away from home. That average point differential is 8th best in the NBA. The Grizz have won 3 of their last five road games and have7-3 spread record when laying 3.5 or less points this season. Denver obviously relies on their offense to win games and will try to push tempo here. The Nuggets are just 1-6 SU their last seven games when they don't score 120 or more points and Memphis has allowed over 120 just once all season and that was early on when they had multiple injuries. The Grizzlies have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating and they'll contain the high-octane offense of Denver. Take Memphis here. |
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02-01-17 | Pelicans v. Pistons -7 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DETROIT PISTONS (-7) over New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35PM ET - We successfully played on the Pelicans last night in Toronto but must go against them here in Detroit tonight. We really felt the Pistons would snap out of their mid-season slump a few games back when they came off a 4-day break but it didn’t happen as they’ve lost 2 straight since then and 3 in a row. Their last two losses came against a red-hot Miami team and at the Boston Celtics. Now Detroit gets to host a Pelicans team off an overtime road loss in Toronto last night and if there is a time they’ll get a big win, it’s tonight. New Orleans just 6-16 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -5.2PPG which is nearly what tonight’s spread is. Detroit is 12-10 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +3.5PPG which is in the top half of the league. The Pistons are 6-5 SU & ATS at home when coming off a loss with an average win margin of 5PPG while the Pelicans are just 3-7 ATS when playing without rest with an average loss margin over 5PPG. New Orleans really struggle shooting and scoring on the road as they hit just 43% from the field which ties into their worst road offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Given the circumstances for the Pistons we expect them to get a double-digit home win here. |
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01-31-17 | Wisconsin v. Illinois OVER 132.5 | Top | 57-43 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers @ Illinois Illini, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET: Game No. 755 |
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01-31-17 | Thunder v. Spurs -9 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-9) over OKC Thunder, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we will side with the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the visiting OKC Thunder. On Sunday we gave 8.5 points with Cleveland at home over the Thunder so laying 1 more point here makes sense. Especially considering the situation with the Spurs off an embarrassing home loss to the Mavericks. The Spurs are 77-54 (59%) ATS since the start of the 2011 season when coming off a loss which is the 2nd best overall record in the NBA. Since the start of last season they have a 17-11 ATS record or 61% which is the best record in the league over that span of time. This season the Spurs have been especially nasty at home off a loss with a 5-2 record but those 5 wins have come by an average of 24PPG and includes 3 wins by 28+ points. OKC is going to suffer the effects of the loss of Enes Kanter for some games to come and can't keep pace with a much deeper San Antonio team that can overcome the loss of Gasol. The Thunder have recently played three road games against similar foes to the Spurs and lost by 16 in Cleveland, 21 in Golden State an22 at the LA Clippers. We don't use 'revenge' in the NBA very often but the Thunder did eliminate the Spurs from the playoffs last year and this is their first meeting this season. Since the start of last season the Spurs have a home point differential of +11.3PPG while the Thunder are in the bottom third of the league in road differential (since Durant left) at -5.3PPG. It seems like a big number but in reality it's not. Lay it! |
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01-30-17 | Grizzlies v. Suns OVER 207.5 | Top | 115-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
OVER 207.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns, 10:35PM ET - We will wager OVER in the Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns game tonight. The league average for total points scored in an NBA game this year is 210PPG. Memphis and Utah are the only two teams in the league to average less than 100PPG offensively and defensively. But the Grizzlies have scored more than 100 points in 7 of their last eight games and have the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA over their last five contests. Phoenix wants to play fast and are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA on the season. In their last five games they have the 3rd most efficient offense averaging 1.165 points per possession. Another important factor here is defense and while the Grizzles play some, the Suns don't. Phoenix allows an average of 112PPG and 1.118PPP with the 5th worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. The Suns have had just 9 games this year with a total set of 210 or less and those games have a 6-3 over record. Memphis has played over in 5 straight on the road against teams with losing home records and Suns on perfect 6-0 over run at home. BET OVER! |
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01-29-17 | Stanford +8 v. California | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* Stanford Cardinal (+) over California Golden Bears, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET: Game #879 |
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01-28-17 | East Carolina v. Memphis -13 | Top | 50-57 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#568 - ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Memphis Tigers -13 over East Carolina Pirates, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET This is the perfect spot for an absolute blowout. The Tigers are off of a loss by 11 points at Temple. Prior to that defeat Memphis was 15-5 this season and they have responded every single time when off of a defeat this season. It is certainly not as if they'll need any extra motivation here. East Carolina, as a huge dog, upset the Tigers in Memphis last season. Granted the Tigers did get some revenge by blowing out the Pirates by 30 when they met in East Carolina later in the season but Memphis is still highly motivated here as home losses to unranked teams is not something that has happened very often in recent seasons. Adding to the strength of this situation is the fact that the Pirates are off of a rare win as East Carolina won at home against Tulsa Wednesday. Prior to that victory, East Carolina had lost 6 straight games and 9 of its last 11. The average margin of defeat in those games was 15 points for the Pirates and the Tigers (still remembering last year's defeat on their home floor) are not going to take their foot off of the gas in this game. Memphis can put up big points while East Carolina has averaged just 57 points per game in their last 7 games. The fact that the Pirates season has been interrupted by head coach Jeff Lebo's hip surgery and now the loss of leading scorer BJ Tyson to a knee injury certainly hasn't helped matters for East Carolina. The Pirates have the worst scoring offense in the American Athletic Conference with 62 points per game while the Tigers rank near the top at 77 points per game. On deck for Memphis is league cellar dweller South Florida so the Tigers are fully focused on this home loss revenge game and they'll have the coaching edge, motivational edge, home court edge, situational edge, and the ability to absolutely blow away a Pirates team that struggles to score points. East Carolina has been held under 37.8% from the field in 7 of their last 8 games. The Tigers are 11-2 at home this season and have shot at least 46% from the field in 9 of their 13 home games. Lay the big number with the Tigers for a Top Play Saturday afternoon. |
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01-27-17 | Green Bay +7.5 v. Oakland | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
TOP PLAY 10* Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix +7.5 over Oakland (Michigan) Golden Grizzlies – The Phoenix got blown out in both games versus the Golden Grizzlies last season. That is certainly added motivation for Wisconsin-Green Bay here but the big key is the simple fact that Oakland is simply not shooting very well at all right now. It is tough to cover a big spread when your offense is struggling and that is certainly the case with the Grizzlies right now. Oakland has failed to cover in 4 of 5 games and the Golden Grizzlies have been held to 25% or less from three point land in all 5 games! In 3 of the 5 games Oakland was held under 41.2% with all their shots from the field. While the Grizzlies offense has been struggling the other concern has been their level of play at the other end of the floor. Oakland has allowed 82 points per game in their last 4 games and the scheduling situation could be problematic for the Grizzlies here as it is difficult for them not to look ahead to a revenge game with Milwaukee that is an early afternoon game Sunday. The Panthers handed them a rare home loss last season and Oakland will seek to avenge that defeat less than about 36 hours after this game finishes up! Green Bay has won 8 of its last 10 games and one of the two losses came by just 3 points. Since conference action has tipped off, the Phoenix have tightened things up on the defensive end and the offensive has flowed quite well with 78 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. UWGB has covered 5 straight and 8 of its last 10 in games where the line fell anywhere between -8 and +8. The Golden Grizzlies have gone 5-10 ATS the last 15 times they were a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Grab the big points and bet Wisconsin-Green Bay Friday night. |
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01-27-17 | Hornets -1 v. Knicks | Top | 107-110 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-1) over @NY Knicks, 7:35PM ET - Today we play on the Charlotte Hornets over the NY Knicks. New York has plenty of distractions right now as trade rumors for Melo heat up, and this comes shortly after the D-Rose issue. The Knicks are just 4-14 SU their last 18 games and have lost 7 of their last 8 at home. Charlotte is off a disappointing home loss to the Warriors, in which they actually led going into the final stanza. Prior to that game they lost to a red hot Wizards team and now step way down in class against the Knicks tonight. The Hornets are just 8-14 SU away from home BUT they have an average point differential of just -1.1 PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. The Knicks on the other hand are 12-11 SU at home but their average point differential is -.1PPG which is 22nd out of 30 teams. These two teams are very similar offensively averaging 1.082 points per possession which is right around the league average. Where these two clubs are drastically different is the defensive end of the court as the Knicks rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency while the Hornets are 6th best in the same category. The visitor has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings and the last time they met on this floor the Hornets were 2-point favorites so we are getting additional value tonight. Take Charlotte! |
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01-26-17 | Indiana v. Michigan OVER 145 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the total (145) in Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET: Game No. 739 |
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01-26-17 | Pacers v. Wolves OVER 210.5 | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
PLAY OVER 210.5: Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET - We are playing OVER in the Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. There are a few indicators that suggest this is going to be a very high scoring game. Let's start with the Pacers defense, or should I say, lack of defense. Indiana has allowed 11 of their last 14 opponents to scored 100 or more points against them and 8 of those 14 have scored 108 or more. In their last six road contests the Pacers have given up an average of 114PPG. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Pacers are 15th in the league or average allowing 1.083 points per possession. Indiana 29th out of 30 teams in the league in opponents offensive rebounds per game. That's a huge factor here as the Wolves are the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the league which translates to some easy opportunities at the rim. As far as Minnesota is concerned, defensively they are the 23rd worst team in the league in DEFF allowing 1.102 points per possession. The Wolves have allowed an average of 111PPG their last four outings but have scored an average of 110PPG in those same four games. Minnesota will have problems slowing down a Pacers offense that has scored 100 or more points in 8 of their last ten games and 106 or more in 6 of their last ten. In their last five games both teams are shooting above their season averages with both above 48%. The OVER has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams in Minny. BET OVER! |
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01-25-17 | Iowa v. Illinois -5.5 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
10* TOP Illinois Illini -5.5 over Iowa Hawkeyes – Some may view this as a revenge spot for Iowa considering Illinois knocked them out of the Big Ten Tourney last March. However, last February the Hawkeyes went into Illinois and beat the Illini by a dozen. Iowa was a sizable favorite in that game but the fact is that the Hawkeyes don't often win at Illinois (Illini had won 12 of the past 14 meetings there) and now payback is on the minds of the hungry home team here. While Illinois is improved this season, the Hawkeyes are not near the team they were last season. This has been particularly true in games played away from Iowa as the Hawkeyes have gone just 1-6 away from home. Illinois is 9-2 at home this season and very hungry for a win after back to back road losses in two tough settings - at Purdue and at Michigan last week. Illinois is averaging 84 points per game at home this season and allowing only 70 points on average in those games. The Hawkeyes are averaging only 70 points per game on the road while allowing 83 per game. As you can see from those home/road stats, this setting absolutely has the potential to be a home blowout and we expect Iowa to fall to 0-4 ATS in road games this season. The Hawkeyes also are a poor 3-10 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Another "strike" against Iowa here is the fact they haven't played since last week Thursday. Rest is a good thing but sometimes too much of a good thing can certainly prove to be bad and rest has oftentimes led to rust for the Hawkeyes when it is too much time off between games. Iowa is on an 18-41 ATS run when they enter a game after having had 5 or 6 days of rest. As for the Illini, they are 3-0 both SU and ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. With a 31-13 home mark in recent seasons (and one of those blemishes coming courtesy of the Hawkeyes last season), home revenge is set up perfectly here. Take Illinois. |
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01-24-17 | Jazz v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DENVER NUGGETS - Our best NBA play for the night is on the Denver Nuggets at home minus the points over the Utah Jazz. As far as scheduling is concerned the Nuggets are in a great spot here as they catch the Jazz off a HUGE division game last night versus Oklahoma City, and having to travel and play without rest. Not to mention they'll be in the higher altitude of Denver which magnifies the fatigue factor against Utah, AND they are playing their 4th game in just five days (teams are 4-9 SU in that situation this year). This will be the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams with the home team winning each game. Denver has won 3 straight home games but did suffer a loss in their last outing at Minnesota so they'll be focused here. The Nuggets are shooting nearly 52% their last five games and they'll find plenty of open looks against a tired Jazz team. Utah has played well this season but they are 0-6 ATS their last six away from home. We predict a double digit win by the home team here. |
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01-24-17 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -4.5 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* Top Play Iowa State -4.5 over Kansas State – The Cyclones are catching the Wildcats in a tough spot. Kansas State is off of an upset win over West Virginia Saturday and are vulnerable here. The Cats are back on the Big 12 road where they've lost 2 of 3 already this season. The Wildcats allowed the Mountaineers to hit 38% of their three pointers in their win Saturday and their ability (or lack thereof) to defend shots from beyond the arc is a definite concern. Kansas State had allowed 54.5%, 45%, 40%, 54.% and 50% in their five prior Big 12 games. In home games, Iowa State is knocking down 37% of their three pointers this season and can definitely take advantage of this weakness in the Cats D. They Cyclones did lose their most recent home game (albeit against highly ranked Kansas) and this is their only other home game that is on their schedule between games on the 7th and 31st of this month. In other words, Iowa State will go all out here as they certainly don't want to go 3 and 1/2 weeks without a home win! In the Big 12, it is critical to take care of business at home and the Cyclones are laying a small number here which has us backing the hungry home team for what should be a rather easy cover. Before their 5-point win at Oklahoma Saturday, 10 of Iowa State's first 11 wins this season all came by a margin of 7 points or more. Kansas State is only 5-21 SU in their last 26 road games. Also, when the Wildcats are off of a win in Big 12 action, they have a 5-12 SU record in their next game. The Cyclones are 36-5 SU in home games and have covered 5 of their last 7 as a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. When off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more, Iowa State has responded by going 15-6 SU. We expect that the Cyclones will respond again here by winning for the 4th time in their last 5 meetings with the Wildcats. Take Iowa State. |
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01-23-17 | Thunder +6 v. Jazz | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (+5.5) over @UTAH JAZZ, 9PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder plus the points over the host Utah Jazz. This is a great spot to play on the Thunder as they last played on Wednesday which means a full 4 days rest and practice time which is hard to come by in a busy NBA schedule. OKC is also coming off a pair of road losses at the Clippers and Warriors so they should be properly focused and motivated here. Utah also beat this Thunder team at home in mid-December by 20-points but OKC was off a game the night before in Portland and they ended up shooting just 36% from the field and allowed the Jazz to hit over 58%. What's significant about those shooting percentages is that the Thunder shoot nearly 46% on the season (12th best) while the Jazz shoot 46.6% which is 8th best but still not the 58% they made in the last meeting. So we expect the law of averages to even out in this game. These two teams are relatively close in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings but the Thunder have played the 8th hardest schedule in the NBA while the Jazz have played the 17th. With the added rest, revenge, schedule discrepancy and a return to normal shooting percentages we like OKC to get the cash easily in this one. |
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01-23-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma State OVER 155.5 | Top | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the total (155.5) in Oklahoma State Cowboys vs TCU Horned Frogs, Monday at 7:00 PM ET: Game No. 527 |
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01-22-17 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
ASA We will play on the Minnesota Timberwolves (-4) over the Denver Nuggets, 7PM ET. This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets who are off a big win last night in Denver over the LA Clippers and now have to travel to face a rested Timberwolves club. Denver has won 4 of their last five games but those W's came against a 22-21 Pacers team, 16-31 Lakers team, 18-27 Magic and a injury depleted Clippers team so we're hardly impressed. On the road the Nuggets have an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG and shoot less than 44% as a team. A big part of Denver's offense comes on the glass but that gets negated here against a Wolves team that has the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Another decisive advantage the Wolves have working for them is how bad the Nuggets defense is, ranking last in defensive efficiency ratings and 3rd to last in points allowed per game. Minnesota is 9-13 SU at home and have a positive differential of +2.4PPG which is right around the league average. They have won 3 straight at home over the Mavs, Rockets and Thunder and are playing better on their home court with 4 straight covers. There is also a small revenge factor here as the Nuggets beat the Wolves at home recently by just 2-points. Lay the points with Minnesota in this one! |
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01-21-17 | West Virginia -3 v. Kansas State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
#615 - ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON West Virginia Mountaineers -3 over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET Winning can make a team complacent and the Mountaineers found that out the hard way with their home loss to Oklahoma Wednesday in a game where they allowed the winning bucket on an end to end drive in the final five seconds. West Virginia was a big double digit favorite in that game but their defensive pressure had regressed in recent weeks as they continued piling up wins and that resulted in a bit of a "let up" from the Mountaineers on the defensive end. Having now not covered 4 of their last 5 games, the Mountaineers should get a big road win and cover as the loss to the Sooners was a wake-up call for this team. They catch the Wildcats at the perfect time as Kansas State is off of a rare Big 12 road win. The Cats win at Oklahoma State Wednesday was just their 2nd road win in their last 19 Big 12 contests away from home. Even though Kansas State is back in Manhattan for this Saturday evening match-up, they are facing a pressing West Virginia defense that will look to disrupt the Wildcats just like they did in last season's 15-point beatdown in Morgantown. The Cats are known for having trouble with success as they are 4-12 SU when off of a win in conference action. Kansas State's point guard, Kamau Stokes, suffered an ankle injury in the win over the Cowboys and having a hobbled starting point guard when facing a Mountaineers team known for it's full-court press is not a good situation for this home dog to be in. The Wildcats are 8-26 SU as an underdog and the Mountaineers are laying a very small number here so nearly any SU loss for Kansas State is likely to be an ATS win for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are fired up after the embarrassing home loss as a large favorite. We look for West Virginia to respond in a big way here. They are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they were off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Normally, as a favorite, West Virginia takes care of business (46-10 SU record) and the Mountaineers point differential this season (outscoring opponents by 25 points per game) is certainly very impressive. They don't just beat teams...they beat them into submission and that is what we fully expect here in this strong situational spot. Lay the short number with the Mountaineers for a Top Play. |
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01-21-17 | Blazers v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 127-123 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
We like Boston at home minus the points over the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Portland is coming off a game last night and are playing their 4th straight road game in a 6-day span. On the flip side the Celtics have had a few days’ rest and have a clear scheduling advantage in this one. When playing without rest the Blazers are just 3-6 SU and ATS. The Blazers starting backcourt of Lillard and McCollum both logged over 35 minutes last night and they’ll have a tough time keeping up with the Celtics Isaiah Thomas who has been outstanding of late for Boston averaging nearly 35PPG his last 9 games. The Blazers have one of the worst road point differentials in the NBA at -6.3PPG and have not traveled well this season. Boston had won 7 straight games at home before suffering an upset loss to the Knicks in their last game. That works for us here as the Celtics are 12-4 SU off a loss this season, 7-1 at home. Five of Boston’s last 7 home wins have come by 9 or more points so we’re not intimated by the spread in this game. Lay the points! |
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01-19-17 | Richmond +12.5 v. Dayton | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#717 – Thursday 10* TOP Richmond Spiders +12 over Dayton Flyers @ 7 ET – The Spiders enter this one on a 5-game winning streak and, as a result, come into this game with perfect 5-0 mark in Atlantic Ten action. While this certainly has the full attention of a talented Flyers team, it does not make the match-up any easier for Dayton. The fact is that Richmond is known for giving the Flyers tough games and they are definitely well-coached under Chris Mooney. The Spiders are the kind of team that will throw a lot of different defensive looks at you and coach Mooney has his team firing on all cylinders right now. Richmond had lost the two prior regular season match-ups with Dayton by a combined 4 points before getting knocked out of the Atlantic Ten Tournament last spring in a rare, poor showing for the Spiders as the Flyers took it 69-54. Of course that makes this a revenge game for Richmond and we expect them to shoot much better than they did in that March match-up last year. The Spiders are full of confidence thanks to their winning streak as well as the fact that they are averaging 77 points per game during the winning streak plus shooting the ball very well including their three pointers! Richmond has only lost 1 game by more than 8 points this entire season and that was because they hit an inexplicable 8.7% of their three pointers in that game. That one preceded this 5-game winning streak and the Spiders have been a different team ever since. Richmond also has stepped things up on the defensive end where they've held each of their last two opponents under 40% from the field. The Flyers have played a schedule that is very similar to that of the Spiders this season and Dayton is 13-4 on the season. However, prior to their blowout win at Duquesne, 6 of the Flyers last 11 wins had come by a margin of 11 points or less. This big line move toward Dayton (up to as high as a 12.5 as of mid-day Thursday) is offering great line value to a Spiders team that has the confidence and moxie of the types of teams that are up for a challenge like this one. Richmond only lost by 3 points in their last visit to Dayton! The Flyers are known for their tough defense but they've actually allowed 43% from the field in their last 3 games combined and guard Kyle Davis is dealing with an ankle injury. We expect Dayton to drop to 2-5 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Look for the hungry and revenging underdog Spiders to improve to a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they've been a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. Dayton is a great team but not near enough respect is being given to Richmond and the Spiders one weakness (depth) is not an issue here as they've been off since Saturday. Look for another monster game from TJ Cline and the Spiders 6'9 forward is known for giving the Flyers a lot of trouble and is leading Richmond in points, rebounds, and assists but also has plenty of help from guys like ShawnDre' Jones, Khwan Fore, and De'Monte Buckingham. We’ll grab the line value in this one and take the generous points for a 10* TOP Thursday. |
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS - We like the Sacramento Kings at home tonight over the visiting Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are 6-1 their last seven games overall and off a home win over the Pelicans on Monday. Prior to that they played in London and were blown out by the Nuggets. With a closer look at the Pacers recent games we find they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and those 6 wins came against teams with a combined 99-155 record on the season. Indiana plays MUCH better at home than they do on the road which is a big part of our reasoning tonight. At home the Pacers have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA BUT on the road they have the 3rd worst at minus -7.7PPG. As far as the Kings are concerned tonight is a very big game for them as they are playing their last home game of a 7 game home stand and must go on the road after tonight. The Kings went just 1-5 SU in this recent stretch of games but they lost to: OKC, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers and Heat. And all of those games were relatively close losses. Even with the Heat included in that stretch those teams have a combined record of 130-79. In fact, the Kings have played the leagues 9th hardest schedule while the Pacers have played the 27th easiest. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a favorite less than 3.5 points while the Pacers are 2-7 ATS in that same price range as a dog. Take Sacramento here! |
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01-17-17 | Illinois v. Purdue OVER 144 | Top | 68-91 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on OVER the total (144) in Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Illini, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game No. 715 |
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01-16-17 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 204 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
UNDER 204 Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - We like UNDER 204 in the Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns game. Let’s start with the basics. The average total points scored in an NBA game right now is just a shade lower than 210 total points. The number on that game is obviously lower than that but not enough in our opinion based on current statistics. First, the Jazz are the slowest paced team in the league at 91.2 possession per game and second, they allow just 1.039 points per possession #1 in the NBA. The Suns on the other hand are the 3rd fastest paced team at 99.5PPP. BUT, in their last five games the Suns have averaged just 92.5 possessions per game which is the 3rd slowest average in the NBA. The Jazz have held 7 of their last ten opponents to less than 92PPG which includes a game against Brooklyn who is very similar to Phoenix and the Suns when they allowed just 86 points in the previous meeting with Phoenix (177 total pts). The dominate team (Utah) will dictate tempo here just as they’ve done in the past four meetings on this court where they’ve averaged 185 total points per game. Phoenix is coming off two games in the higher altitude of Mexico City and may be a little fatigued here too. Easy bet UNDER! |
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01-16-17 | Kansas -2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
#545 – ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Kansas -2.5 over Iowa State, Monday at 9:00 PM ET When these teams have matched up recently and the game is not in Kansas, the Cyclones have held the upper hand. Iowa State has won two straight at home in this series and also beat the Jayhawks on a neutral floor in the Big 12 Tourney two years ago. However, we feel that Kansas is favored in this one with good reason. The 15-1 Jayhawks are taking on an 11-5 Cyclones team that is having some issues on the defensive end. Iowa State just lost at TCU on Saturday and the Cyclones allowed the Horned Frogs to hit 56.9% of their shots from the field. One could argue that Iowa State was caught looking ahead to this showdown with Kansas and, in fact, that is a true statement. However, the fact is that this is now the 3rd straight game in which Cyclones opponents have connected on at least 52.9% from the field. The other concerning aspect of that (if you're an Iowa State fan) is the fact the other two games were against Texas and Oklahoma State and those teams are a combined 1-9 this season in Big 12 action. The porous defense of the Cyclones is not going to allow them to get enough stops to upset the 15-1 Jayhawks here no matter how loud Hilton Coliseum is in Ames tonight. Look for Frank Mason (averaging a league-high 20.5 points per game) to lead the way for Kansas tonight. The Jayhawks backcourt is a key to notching big road wins and Mason has been getting plenty of support. Against Oklahoma State on Saturday, Josh Jackson had 20 points and Devonte Graham also scored huge with 21 points! The Kansas defense wasn't at its best in the win over the Cowboys but they had previously been strong and we expect a bounce back here. After all, in recent seasons the Jayhawks are 8-0 SU when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and their long-term mark is 50-25 ATS when they are coming off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. All Kansas has heard about coming into this game is how Iowa State has been a bit of a nemesis for the Jayhawks in recent seasons. We expect Kansas to put an end to that talk tonight by making a big statement on the road. Lay the short number with the Jayhawks Monday night. |
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01-14-17 | 76ers v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
PLAY ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS - This is going to be a shorter than usual analysis as we are in a time crunch on Saturday with a deep college card and the NFL games. We normally wouldn't lay this many points with Washington but the situation is warranted. The Wizards are off a loss at Boston which will have them focused for the 76ers tonight. Not to mention the 76ers have won 3 straight so the Wiz won't take them for granted. Philly has had problems playing without rest this season and a lot of that is from a minutes restriction on their best overall player Joel Embiid who will not play today. Philly is 1-6 SU this year when playing the second night of a back-to-back with an average loss margin of 13PPG. Washington on the other hand is rested having last played January 11th. Washington was recently a -11.5 point home favorite over Chicago who is much better than Philly so we're not intimidated by the spread today. The Wiz have covered 7 of their last eight at home over teams with sub .500 record. Lay the points with Washington! |
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01-14-17 | Florida State +7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
#565 – Saturday 10* TOP Florida State Seminoles +7.5 over North Carolina @ 2 ET – The Seminoles enter this one on a 12-game winning streak and it is not as if the Seminoles haven't been tested! In fact, this will be their 4th straight game against a ranked opponent. Florida State seeks revenge here for a home loss to North Carolina last season where the Tar Heels dominated the glass. We don't expect that type of rebounding edge for UNC in this one. The Noles possess formidable frontcourt options this season with guys like 7-1 Michael Ojo, 6-10 Jonathan Isaac, 6-9 Jarquez Smith and 7-4 Christ Koumadje. Making the challenge even tougher for the Tar Heels is the fact that UNC 6-10 center Tony Bradley is going to miss this game. Even though Bradley is a back-up, he is the Tar Heels 2nd leading rebounder with 5.7 boards per game. North Carolina, even without Bradley, has plenty of size up front but the Seminoles do pose a formidable challenge and certainly are unlikely to be dominated on the boards like they were in last season's match-up. Florida State is on a 14-7 ATS run (including a perfect 3-0 this season) when they are coming off of a win in ACC action and we look for them to again maintain their momentum here as they get another cover even if they do fall short of the outright upset. In their last visit to Chapel Hill, the Seminoles lost by only 4 points. This point spread range is the "sweet spot" for the Tar Heels to get upset as North Carolina is only 2-4 SU when they are a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. UNC has covered just 1 of those 6 games and we expect that record to drop to just 1 of 7 ATS by the time this one is in the books! We wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Seminoles end up with a great shot to win this one outright so we’ll grab the line value here and take the generous points. |
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01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
#705 Boston Celtics (+2.5) over Atlanta Hawks, 8PM ET - Today we are going to play on the Boston Celtics plus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta comes into this game red hot and on an 7 game winning streak! Wait what? Yep, we're playing against the Hawks and here's why. Yes, the Hawks have won 7 straight but only ONE of those wins game against a team with a winning record and that was home against the Spurs in OT. The other 6 wins came against teams with a combined winning record of 88-150 so we're really NOT impressed with Atlanta's current run. Not to mention the Hawks are 10-7 SU at home but have an average point differential of just +.4PPG which is 20th worst in the NBA. Now they face a Boston team that is 12-9 SU away from home this season with the 5th best road point differential of +1.9PPG and a team that has won 11 of their last 14 overall. The Celtics have dropped two straight road games but they came at Toronto and Cleveland who are the two best teams in the East right now. Prior to that the C's had won 4 straight away from home. We like Boston to get a win tonight on the road in Atlanta. |
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01-11-17 | Seton Hall v. Marquette -4.5 | Top | 86-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* Marquette Golden Eagles (-) over Seton Hall Pirates, Wednesday at 7 PM ET: Game #738 |
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01-10-17 | Celtics v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS -4.5 OVER BOSTON CELTICS, TUES 7:35PM ET - There is a HUGE Atlantic Division showdown Tuesday night when the Raptors host the Celtics in Toronto. What a great spot to play on the Raptors, who at first look, seem to be struggling with a 2-5 record over their last seven games but scheduling has a lot to do with that. Toronto came off a 6 game road trip, played one game at home, then went to Chicago, then came home the following night only to lose to the red hot Rockets by 7-points. Toronto is 12-6 SU at home and has the 3rd best overall home point differential of +10.4PPG. Those numbers aren't a fluke as this same roster was 32-9 SU at home last year with an average point differential of +6.6PPG, 6th best in the NBA. The Raptors respond well when coming off a SU loss as they are 9-4 SU and ATS in that role this season. Boston has won 4 straight games but all of those were at home and now must travel to one of the toughest venues in the NBA. The Celtics have a 12-8 SU road record this year but a closer look shows they are just 1-5 SU their last six road games when playing a team with a current winning record and the lone win came in Memphis in OT. When playing a division opponent the Raptors are 15-6 ATS dating back to last year and they've cashed 4 of the last five meetings with Boston. With just 1 game separating these two teams in the Atlantic Division and the Raps coming off a pair of losses it's a perfect time to 'buy' Toronto at home! |
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01-10-17 | Baylor +7 v. West Virginia | Top | 68-89 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) over West Virginia Mountaineers, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #519 |
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01-08-17 | California +3 v. USC | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* California Golden Bears (+) over Southern California Trojans, Sunday 10:00 PM ET: Game #545 |
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01-07-17 | Creighton -4 v. Providence | Top | 78-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* Creighton Bluejays (-) over Providence Friars, Saturday 2:00 PM ET: Game #753 |
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01-06-17 | Knicks +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #509 NY Knicks (+5.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - It's not often that 'revenge' factors into NBA games but this is certainly one of them with New York traveling to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. These same two teams just met a few nights back in New York with the Bucks pulling out a 1-point win on a last second jumper by Bucks sensation Giannis Antetokounmpo. Hidden in that loss though is the fact the Knicks played great basketball for 75% of the game, led by as many as 16 points before a collapse in the fourth quarter. Despite the fact the Knicks were the home team they were outscored by 15 from the free throw line by Milwaukee but Melo picked up the slack for New York by scoring 30 points. Let's not forget the Knicks were without Kristaps Porzingis who is averaging 20PPG, 7.8RPG and 1.3 APG. Porzingis practiced yesterday and our reports say he's likely to play tonight. Even if he doesn't we like the Knicks plus the points. New York clearly has a talented roster but at times don't play up to their potential. The Knicks 5-1 ATS record their last six games against teams with winning records supports this theory. In this scenario we feel a focused, motivated team gets a solid cover here. The young Bucks have just 1 spread win their last five games following a SU win and we don't see them getting a cover here. |
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01-04-17 | Iowa State +7.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-65 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* Iowa State Cyclones (+) over Baylor Bears, Wednesday @ 8:00 PM ET: Game #567 |
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01-04-17 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 208 | Top | 111-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
UNDER 208 HAWKS @ MAGIC - We have a contrarian wager for you on Wednesday night with the UNDER in the Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic game tonight. Recent trends by both teams have pushed this number higher than it should be and the value lies with the UNDER. In their last five games both teams are playing faster than season averages with more possessions per game and scores have been higher. But when you look at the whole this Total has clearly been set too high tonight. These same two teams just me three weeks back and the oddsmakers had a Total set of 202 which is considerably less than tonight's number. Granted in the last meeting these two teams combined for 251 total points but that was clearly an aberration and abnormal. Prior to the most recent meeting, in regulation, these two teams had combined for 203 or less points in 8 straight meetings. When these two teams have played within the Division this season they have a combined UNDER record of 4-11 and we expect that trend to continue as defense will dictate on both ends of the court. With public money flowing in on the OVER and wiseguys betting UNDER this is an easy call. UNDER! |
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01-03-17 | West Virginia -4 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) over Texas Tech Red Raiders, Tuesday 9:15 PM ET: Game #753 |
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01-02-17 | William & Mary +3 v. Hofstra | Top | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* Top Play WILLIAM & MARY TRIBE over Hofstra Pride, Monday 4:00 PM ET: Game #517 |
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01-01-17 | Minnesota +12 v. Purdue | Top | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
ASA 10* Top Play MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS over Purdue Boilermakers, Sunday 4:30 PM ET on Big Ten Network: Game #729 |
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12-31-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -130 | Top | 116-96 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
#506 @Chicago Bulls (ML) over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET - We've had this game circled for a couple weeks now after the Bucks beat the Bulls on consecutive days Dec 15th and 16th. True revenge is a rare commodity in the NBA but it will factor in here as Chicago was beaten badly (69-95) at home in the back end of that two game set. The Bulls are a respectable 10-6 SU at home this season with the 13th best home point differential of +3.6PPG. Milwaukee is 5-9 SU on the road this season and has some impressive efficiency statistics but this just isn't a good spot for them having played in Minnesota last night and having to travel to Chicago today to face this hungry Bulls team. Chicago also played yesterday, and lost in Indiana but now they are back home where they are 6-3 SU off a loss. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS when playing the second night of a B2B and have lost those games by an average of nearly 7PPG. When these two teams last met on Dec 16th on this same court the Bulls were favored by 5 points so you can see for yourself the added value of today's spread. Chicago has covered 7 of the last nine meetings with Milwaukee on this court. Lay it! |
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