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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-23-22 | Xavier v. Marquette +2 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2 over Xavier, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Don’t look now but Marquette just might be the hottest team in the Big East. The Golden Eagles have now won 5 straight games including wins @ Villanova earlier this week and home wins vs Seton Hall and Providence – 3 of the top teams in the conference. They are catching Xavier in a tough spot playing their 2nd straight road game with the stomach flu running through the team. The Musketeers topped DePaul 68-67 on the road Wednesday but it was a struggle. They trailed for much of the game and actually took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 2:00 minutes remaining. DePaul played that game without their leading scorer Freeman-Liberty (21 PPG) so an unimpressive effort from Xavier. They had 2 key players under the weather for that game and now another starter (Freemantle) is battling the flu. They may or may not play but none are 100%. These 2 met back on December 18th when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and simply not playing well. Xavier won the game 80-71 and that margin came at the FT line where the Musketeers attempted 35 FTS’s (made 21) to just 12 attempts for the Eagles (made 8). Marquette has been scorching from deep hitting at least 43% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 5 games and Xavier has struggled guarding the 3 their last few games allowing 43% and 38% vs Creighton and DePaul. This sets up very nicely for the Golden Eagles to win at home. |
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01-22-22 | Pacers v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - These same two teams met Jan 14th in Indiana and that game finished with 206 total points which finished well Under the number of 219.5. The Pacers managed just 94 points in the contest and that was with their full complement of players. Indiana just played and beat Golden State on the road with their top 6 players out of the lineup. The bench and role players stepped up for that game but don’t expect a repeat performance. A big anomaly in the game against GST was the Pacers 3-point shooting as they made 15 of 35 3’s. Indiana is 26th in the NBA in 3-point percentage shooting and won’t have another big night from beyond the arc against the Suns defense which is 3rd in points allowed, 1st in FG% D, 5th in 3pt% D and 8th in rebounding. The Pacers are 17th in scoring this year averaging 108.3PPG. Phoenix allows the 5th fewest points per game at home this season where their games have averaged 216 total points. Indiana’s road games have averaged 214 total points. Both teams are trending around average in pace of play their last five games so it won’t be an up-and-down affair. This shapes up to be an easy UNDER. |
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01-22-22 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL -2.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Huge revenge game for Miami from just 11 days ago. Miami led on the road @ FSU for a majority of the game and lost 65-64 when the Canes (with a 1 point lead) were called for a foul with 1 second left on the clock. FSU hit both FT’s and won by a point. That loss is the Canes only setback in their last 11 games. This team is playing very well. They beat Duke on the road and just walloped UNC at home by 28 points all within the last 2 weeks. FSU is also on a bit of a roll winning 5 straight but 4 of those wins came at home. For the season the Noles are just 2-4 SU in road games. Dating back to last season FSU has covered just 1 of their last 9 road games. They are averaging just 66 PPG and shooting only 41% from the field in their 6 road games this season. Miami is 9-1 at home this season averaging 84 PPG and hitting nearly 50% of their shots. We like the red hot Canes to get their quick revenge at home in this one. |
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01-21-22 | Pistons v. Jazz -13.5 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -13.5 over Detroit Pistons, 9:10 PM ET - Detroit is 4-19 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.2PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP. Detroit is 24th in points allowed per game, 29th in opponent FG% D, 28th fin 3-point percentage D and 25th in rebounding. Now they face a jazz team that is 1st in scoring, the 3rd best shooting team at 47.5%, 6th in 3-point percentage and 4th in rebounding. Offensively the Pistons aren’t any better than they are defensively. Detroit is 28th in scoring, 29th in FG%, 29th in 3-point percentage and 28th in offensive rebounding. The Jazz are top 12 defensively in all the key categories. What makes this play more attractive is the fact the Pistons are coming off a big come from behind win at Sacramento while the Jazz are off a disappointing home loss to the lowly Rockets. The Jazz recently lost in Detroit as a -10.5-point favorite and will get a 20-point win here. |
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01-21-22 | Evansville v. Illinois State -7.5 | Top | 56-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -7 over Evansville, Friday at 7 PM ET - We look for ISU to play very well at home after playing very poorly in their worst loss of the year @ Missouri State. Prior to that blowout loss, the Redbirds, who are 9-9 on the season, had 5 losses by 6 points or less or in OT. That included tight games @ top 10 Wisconsin (lost by 4) and vs a very solid St Louis team on a neutral court (lost by 6). ISU has had a rough stretch of games over the last 30 days with 4 road games and just 1 home game. In that 1 home game they topped Bradley by 9 points. Tonight they take on an Evansville team that is 0-5 in the MVC and just 4-12 on the season. The Aces wins have come vs DePauw (non Division 1), IUPUI (ranked 358th out of 358 teams), Eastern Illinois (ranked 354th) and Tennessee Tech (ranked 273rd). They are 1-5 SU on the road this season (only win vs Eastern Illinois) and 4 of those 5 losses have come by at least 20 points. ISU is very good offensive averaging 79 PPG and they rank 17th nationally hitting almost 39% of their shots from beyond the arc. That’s a bad match up for this Evansville defense that allows opponents to make 42% of their 3’s which is the 2nd worst mark in the country. On top of that, Evansville struggles to score averaging only 59 PPG which won’t get it done here vs the higher scoring Redbirds. We’ll lay the points. |
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01-20-22 | North Dakota v. Oral Roberts -20.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -20.5 over North Dakota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This one will be ugly. ORU has a top notch offense that ranks 77th nationally in adjusted efficiency, 32nd in eFG% and 13th in 3 point %. The are the 8th highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83 PPG and at home they are putting up a ridiculous 91 PPG. That’s going to be a massive sized problem for a North Dakota defense that ranks DEAD LAST in the country (358th) in defensive efficiency. The Hawks allow their opponents to hit 40% of their 3-point shots and we already mentioned ORU’s prowess from beyond the arc. ORU is coming home after sweeping a 3 game road trip and their last home game was on January 1st vs Nebraska Omaha. Why do we bring that up? Because Nebraska Omaha and tonight’s opponent are very similar defensively (both stink) with Omaha actually ranking 11 spots higher in defensive efficiency. How did that game turn out? Oral Roberts won 107-62! Don’t be at all surprised of the Golden Eagles hit triple digits in this game. Does North Dakota have any chance of keeping up? Nope. The Hawks rely fairly heavily on the 3 point shot and they aren’t very good at it (288th nationally). They are facing an Oral Roberts defense that has allowed opponents to make only 29% of their 3’s which is the 38th best defensive mark in the country. They are 0-8 on the road losing by an average of 19 PPG. The 3 worst teams in the Summit are North Dakota, Nebraska Omaha, and Denver (all ranked below 300). ND played the other 2 conference cellar dwellars on the road this month and lost @ Denver by 19 and @ Nebraska Omaha by 16. Now they are playing the 2nd best team in the league on the road and it’s gonna get ugly. |
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01-20-22 | Pelicans v. Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 New Orleans Pelicans vs New York Knicks, 7:35 PM ET - Let’s start with the pace of play for both teams. The Knicks are THE slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.1 possessions per game, the Pelicans are 21st slowest at 97.1. Most recently in their last five games both are playing slower yet. New York gives up the 6th fewest points per game in the league and New Orleans is 24th in scoring. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.092-points per possession, New Orleans is 25th at 1.082PPP. These are two of the worst shooting teams in the NBA at 43.8% for New York and 43.7% for the Pelicans. The Knicks are on a 7-0 UNDER run when they are favored, the Pelicans are 5-1 UNDER in their last six overall. We don’t see this game getting over 205 total points. |
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01-19-22 | Pistons v. Kings -5.5 | Top | 133-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SACRAMENTO KINGS -6 over Detroit Pistons - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here with the Pistons coming off a marquee game versus the Warriors on Tuesday night. When playing without rest the Pistons are 2-5 SU this season with a net differential of minus -17PPG. Detroit is 3-18 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.8PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.147PPP. Sacramento hasn’t been great at home this year with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG and a 12-15 SU record but they have won 3 of their last six at home with quality wins over the Lakers and Heat included. The Kings most recent home game was a disappointing loss to the Rockets who shot incredibly well for the game at 54% overall and 40% from 3. The Kings have been off since Sunday and are 3-0 ATS +10PPG when in this scheduling situation. Detroit is playing the 2nd of a B2B, 3rd in four nights and 4th in 6 days. |
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01-19-22 | Iowa v. Rutgers +3.5 | Top | 46-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +3.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - Rutgers is on a nice little roll winning 5 of their last 6 games. They’re unbeaten at home in Big 10 play with wins over Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska. Iowa has played 3 conference road games losing 2 of those. Their lone Big 10 road win was on Sunday @ Minnesota facing a Gopher team without 2 of their best players in the line up (Curry & Sutherlin). The Hawkeyes have been very good at home this year (10-1 record) but their numbers drop off drastically on the road. When compared to their overall season numbers, Iowa averages 15 fewer PPG, -4% shooting, and -%7 percent from deep when playing on the road. Last year Iowa had their best team they’ve had in 20 seasons and they were -3 @ Rutgers and struggled to get by with a 77-75 win. Rutgers is the much better defensive team (54th in defensive efficiency to 158th for Iowa) and they are the bigger team. Iowa will struggle inside the arc offensively in this game. The Knights are 9-1 SU at home this season and 37-6 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. We like the host to win this one outright. |
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01-18-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6.5 over Vanderbilt, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We expect UT to play with an extra effort here after getting absolutely embarrassed over the weekend @ Kentucky. The Vols lost that game 107-79 and the Wildcats averaged a ridiculous 1.47 points per possession in the win. It was the first time since 2006 that the Vols allowed a team to reach 100 points. That was a enormously poor effort from the UT defense that STILL ranks 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency even after that performance allowing just 0.89 PPP. UK is ranked 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and now the Volunteers face a Vandy team that ranks 10th in the SEC in offensive efficiency. We expect the Commodores to struggle on offense vs one of the top defenses in the nation who will play with a little extra passion here. Vandy’s home court advantage has been little to none this year as 5 of their 6 losses have come at home. They are just 2-4 SU vs top 100 teams this year with all 4 losses coming by double digits. While Vanderbilt’s strength of schedule is ranked outside the top 100, Tennessee has played one of the toughest slates in the country (14th SOS). The Vols come in with 5 losses on the season and ALL 5 have come vs teams ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 17 (Villanova, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, and Texas Tech). UT was favored by 12 @ Vandy last year (won 70-58) and now they are laying half that number despite the Vols ranking 14th this year (per Ken Pom) while they were 28th last year when this game tipped off. Vandy is off a 7 point win over UGA (the lowest rated team in the SEC) but they are running into a buzzsaw here. The Vols have won 5 in a road @ Vanderbilt and this is a must win type of game after their blowout loss. Lay it. |
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01-17-22 | Wyoming v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -2.5 over Wyoming, Monday at 8 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. Their most recent home game was a 15 point loss vs Boise State last week. They Wolfpack were favored by 2.5 in that game vs a BSU team that is ranked 30 spots higher than this Wyoming team yet we’re laying the same number. Wyoming, on the other hand, is coming off an upset 2-point win at Utah State on Saturday with the Aggies playing without 2 of their best players. It was a huge win for the Cowboys who hadn’t played a game since December 25th prior to Saturday. They are a thin team with a short bench and now must play 2 nights later after not having played for 20 days. The Wolfpack also have some revenge in mind here after losing both games vs Wyoming last year. Both were on the road and just 2 days apart due to the Covid situation. Nevada was FAVORED in both of those road games last year but lost tight games by 5 & 7 points. They returned 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s 16-10 team and they will be extra motivated here. Nevada has played the tougher schedule so their record isn’t as impressive as Wyoming’s, but the Wolfpack have won 7 of their last 9 after a slow start to the season. The only 2 losses during that run were vs Boise State & Kansas. If this one is tight late and Nevada needs to hold on to a lead, we love the fact they shoot 78% from the FT line (Wyoming shoots just 69%). The Pack has a great home court advantage with a 61-7 SU record last 68 home games. We side with Nevada tonight. |
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01-17-22 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with the Heat coming off a horrible home showing and loss, while the Raptors are off a big road win over the Bucks. Miami is 13-5 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The Raptors are 9-8 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.7PPG. The Heat have won 4 of their last five at home and are coming off a brutal loss to the 76ers. Miami shot just 38% for the game and 26% from beyond the arc which are both well below their season averages. Butler, Lowry and Robinson combined to shoot 4 of 31 from the field. The Heat have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games at 1.210PPP compared to a Raptors team that is 18th over that span of games. Toronto is better defensively in the last five games but only barely with a DEFF rating of 1.102PPP compared to 1.111PPP for the Heat. Given the situation we like Miami to get a solid home win here. |
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01-16-22 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 216 | Top | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - First off we’ll apologize for this shorter analysis but its football Sunday and time is limited. This game features two of the top 12 teams in scoring this season with both averaging over 109PPG. GST is 11th in offensive efficiency at 1.113-points per possession and 12th in overall pace of play on the year. Minnesota is 6th in pace and will want to play fast here at home. Most recently, in their last five games the Wolves have the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.170PPP. The Wolves are on a 5-0 Over streak against a team with a winning record, Golden State is on a 4-0 Over run against teams with a losing record. The last four meetings between these two teams have finished with more than 233 total points. Yes, we know there is not Steph Curry here, but they do have Klay Thompson back in the mix and their best defender Draymond Green is out. BET OVER! |
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01-15-22 | Oregon v. USC -6 | Top | 79-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* USC -6 over Oregon, Saturday at 11 PM ET - Great value here with the Trojans. As of this write up they are laying just 6 at home vs Oregon who is playing their 2nd straight road game. Because USC struggled a bit at home on Thursday with Oregon State (won by 10) and Oregon upset UCLA in OT this line is off. The Ducks opened +11 @ UCLA and we have USC rated the EXACT same (within 2 spots) of UCLA and this line is just 6. Now way the Bruins are 5 points better than the Trojans on a neutral site which is what this line suggests. A letdown is in order here for Oregon and this is a very tough spot as they are playing their 3rd road game in 6 days (Beat Oregon St by 2 on Monday and UCLA in OT on Thursday). USC is a fantastic defensive team that has held 12 of their 15 opponents to 40% or less from the field. Not a great match up for an Oregon team that shoots just 43% on the road and just 32% from deep. These teams have faced off here @ USC 3 times since the start of the 2019 season and the Trojans have won those games by 17, 14, and 14 points. We love this spot for USC and we’ll lay the points. |
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01-15-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 209 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 209 Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are coming off big games last night so we expect both defenses to be lax here in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. This Total is set significantly lower than the league average of points scored of 216.8PPG. Miami relies on their 3-point shooting on offense with the 2nd best league average at 37.8%. The Heat have the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA right now in the last five games at 1.214PPP. The 76ers have also been highly efficient in their last five averaging 1.126PPP which is 10th best in the league. Over their last five games the Sixers are shooting 47.9% which is up from their season average of 46.1%. As we mentioned before, this is the second game of a back-to-back and these two teams combined are OVER 8-1-1 when playing without rest and those games averaged 216.8 and 220.8PPG. The Bet here is OVER! |
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01-15-22 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 73-79 | Push | 0 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -6 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This is an absolute huge home game for Tech. They have underachieved but they are much better than their 8-7 record. They are 0-4 in the ACC and after this game they play 3 consecutive road games which basically makes this a must win. The Hokies enter this game off 3 straight losses (vs Duke, NC State, and Virginia) and Notre Dame has won 6 straight yet Tech is favored by 6. That alone speak volumes. The average rating of ND’s last 6 opponents, all wins, is 160 and 4 of those games were at home. The Irish have played 3 road games thus far in the ACC and they are vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league. They lost by 16 @ BC, beat Ga Tech in OT, and beat Pitt by 1. Va Tech has a fantastic defense ranked 26th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 41st in eFG% defense. Where they really excel is defending the arc allowing 26% good for 9th in the nation. Bad news for ND who lives at the 3-point line with 39% of their points coming from deep – 32nd in the nation – and they are even better at home hitting 41% from beyond the arc. On the flip side, VT is a great 3-point shooting team hitting 39% of their triples (15th best in the country) and the Irish struggle to defend the arc allowing 34% or 200th nationally. This one sets up really well for the home team in must win mode vs a road team that’s played very easy conference slate thus far (2nd easiest in the ACC). Lay it with Virginia Tech. |
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01-14-22 | VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
#889 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU +3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll be honest. We don’t love taking road teams in college hoops unless the situation is right. One thing we do need most of the time when siding with a road team is good defense which travels. Teams can lose their shooting acumen at times on the road, but defense is a constant. That’s absolutely what we have here with VCU. They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 3rd in 3 point % defense, 14th in 2 point % defense, and 8th in PPG allowed. This team is simply as good as it gets defensively. Their offensive numbers for the season are not great but they are absolutely trending in the right direction on that end of the court as well. The Rams have scored 75 or more in 3 of their last 5 games including topping 80 points in each of their last 2 games. If they do that, they are pretty much unbeatable with the defense they play. They are a perfect 4-0 SU on the road this year including 2 wins over top 100 teams Vanderbilt and Dayton. They average more PPG offensively in road games and allow fewer PPG away from home. This team just simply seems to play better away from home. St Bonnies is a solid team but they need to knock some rust off. They’ve only played one game since December 17th and that was an OT win @ LaSalle on Tuesday. For a recent reference point, VCU just played LaSalle on the road as well last Saturday and dominated the game beating the Explorers by 19 points. The Bonnies defense isn’t nearly at the level of VCU’s ranking 109th in adjusted efficiency and 235th guarding the arc. They have allowed 8 of their last 10 opponents to score more than 1.00 point per possession which isn’t great. For comparison’s sake, VCU has not allowed a single opponent to score 1.00 PPP in a game this year. Zippo in 14 games. The closest was Baylor who put up 0.99 PPP in their 8 point win over VCU and the Bears rank 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. Take the points with the better team and the better defense in this one. |
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01-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons OVER 213.5 | Top | 87-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game here between the Raptors and Pistons with a predicted finish of 220+ by our computer analytics. Toronto is coming off a defensive grinder against the Suns and will be eager to get their offensive rhythm back prior to a much bigger game tomorrow night versus the Bucks. The Raptors were averaging 118PPG in their 6 previous games before facing a Suns defense that is 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.049-points per possession. Toronto’s 9th best offensive efficiency should have a much easier time scoring tonight against a Pistons defense that ranks 22nd in DEFF and allows 111.3PPG which is 24th. Looking at the Pistons last ten games we see they’ve allowed 133, 140 and 144 points so the potential for a really big number from Toronto is not out of question. Detroit is one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA but they are the 8th fastest which means plenty of possessions. The Raptors aren’t much better defensively than the Pistons as they give up 1.118-points per possession which ranks 20th in the NBA. These two teams met in November and put up 248 points. It won’t be that high tonight but it will be more than the 214 set by the oddsmakers. |
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01-13-22 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 215 | Top | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - This number is set slightly lower than the average NBA total right now of 216.6PPG but our math model suggests that this game will not get 210. It starts with pace for both teams with the Clippers checking in at 15th and the Pelicans slower yet at 20th. In their most recent 5 games both are playing slower yet and that shouldn’t change here. If we look at LA’s last five games, we see they are 28th in offensive efficiency at 1.016-points per possession, shooting just 42.9% from the field. New Orleans has been one of the worst offenses in the NBA this season averaging 105.7PPG on 43.7% shooting (26th) and 33.8% 3-point shooting which is 23rd. The Clippers have a top 8 defense in FG% D, 3PT% D and points allowed, giving up 105.3PPG. The Pels have some bad defensive numbers of late but the games they’ve allowed teams to score big numbers have come against some of the league’s elite offenses (Wolves, Suns, Jazz, Bucks) who all rank top 11 in scoring. The Clippers are 23rd in the NBA in average points per game. This is an UNDER BET! |
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01-13-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#790 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -3.5 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 7 PM ET - MTSU is just glad to be back at home after not playing here since mid December. The Blue Raiders are coming off 3 straight losses, all on the road. Two of those losses were vs Chattanooga, the top team in the Southern Conference, and then a 7 point loss @ UNT, the 3rd ranked team in CUSA. We were impressed how they fought a very good North Texas team in a very tough spot. MTSU was coming off a tight road loss @ Rice just 2 nights earlier and catching UNT off a rare home loss. FAU, on the other hand, upset Marshall on the road Saturday as 5 points dogs. The Herd played without one of their better players (Darius George) while FAU shot lights out at 54% which was more than 10% higher than their road average coming into the game. The Owls were 0-3 in road games entering that won with losses vs High Points, New Mexico, and VCU. That was a rare road win for Florida Atlantic on Saturday and with that win they’ve still won just 5 of their last 23 true road games. They are a poor defensive team (276th in eFG% defense) and more so on the road where they have allowed opponents to hit 49% of their shots from the field. Defending the arc is a huge problem for the Owls as well ranking 353rd allowing a ridiculous 41% on the season. They also turn the ball over on almost 20% of their possessions which is not good vs MTSU who is very adept at creating turnovers (41st nationally). It’s a double revenger for Middle Tennessee after losing both meetings last year. Both were on the road on back to back nights as that’s the way the played it last year with the Covid situation. Now they get FAU to play FAU here at home and the Raiders will play with urgency coming off 3 losses. Lay it. |
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01-12-22 | Nets +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 138-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this bet as the Bulls are playing their 4th game in seven days and the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight when they face the Nets. Of course, playing status can change throughout the day but as of now the Nets will have their Big 3 in the lineup with Irving, Durant and Harden. The Nets had won 3 straight road games prior to a loss in Portland the other night, but they were without Harden. The Bulls have been a great surprise this season and are playing well but their 9-1 SU results recently are misleading. In their last nine wins, only one has come against a team with a winning record (Washington 21-20 SU) and they lost the lone game against a winning team in Dallas. Brooklyn is looking up at the Bulls in the standings and have lost to them twice already this season making this game a little more important for them. The glaring advantage the Nets have in this game is their 3-point defense which is 1st in the league compared to the Bulls which ranks 20th. |
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01-12-22 | Minnesota v. Michigan State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
#695/696 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Minnesota vs Michigan State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some solid value on the Under in this game. Our numbers have this one landing in the mid 130’s. These 2 met in December and the final score was MSU 75, Minnesota 67 so they tallied 142 total points. The set total in that game was 135 so because they went Over in the first game this one is now 5 points higher. The fact is the first game was very fortunate to reach the point total it did. At halftime it was on pace for 122 points. With 1:00 minute remaining these 2 teams had combined for 129 points and scored 13 in the final minute. Michigan State likes to play at a faster pace but Minnesota is one of the slower teams in the Big 10 (13th in the conference in pace) and they know to have a chance here they can’t get in an up & down game with Sparty. Expect Minnesota to control the tempo here. Both teams are very good defensively (20th & 66th in defensive efficiency) and both defend the 3 as well as anyone in the nation (MSU 27th defending the arc & Minnesota 11th). Both teams limit their fouls and are very good at keeping their opponents off the FT line – only 22 FT’s made in the first meeting. Prior to scoring 142 in the first meeting this year these two rivals only topped 137 once in their previous 9 meetings. Under is the play. |
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01-11-22 | Suns -3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Any chance we get to back an elite team off a bad loss we’ll consider it and tonight we get that opportunity with the Suns. Phoenix lost their most recent game at home to Miami 100-123, and it was never close. The Suns shot just 38% for the game which was below their season average of 47.3% which is 3rd best in the NBA. Phoenix is 13-4 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +5.4PPG which is also 3rd best in the league. Toronto is playing well right now with 6 straight wins, but we’re not overly impressed with that resume considering the competition included New Orleans, San Antonio, the Knicks and Clippers. The two wins over the Bucks and Jazz in that stretch is misleading as the Bucks were without 3 starters including Giannis and the Jazz sat everyone that game. Toronto really doesn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (12-10 SU) as fans aren’t allowed in Canada. Phoenix is 25-11 SU off since the start of last season with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Easy call with a focused Phoenix team. |
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01-10-22 | North Dakota State v. Denver +5 | Top | 87-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
#886 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +5 over North Dakota State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Denver is playing their best basketball of the year right now and we feel they are undervalued. 3 of their best performances of the season have come in their last 5 games including an easy 19 point win over North Dakota here on Saturday. The Pioneers have won 3 of their last 4 home games with their only loss coming by 4 points in OT. Their record looks poor at 6-11 but we need to take into account they played a brutal schedule from late November through mid December. During that stretch they played 6 consecutive road games in an 18 day span that were all losses. Since that stretch Denver is 3-2 SU with an OT loss (mentioned above) and a loss @ Oral Roberts, the 2nd highest rated team in the Summit. They have shot 49% during that stretch (their seasonal average is 46%) and averaged 76 PPG (seasonal average 69 PPG). NDSU hasn’t been great on the road where they have a losing record. They were barely able to get by @ Nebraska Omaha on Saturday, the worst team in the Summit, winning by 4 despite taking 13 more FT attempts. Now 2 days later they are on the road again, in altitude, which will be tough for a team that basically plays 7 guys. The Bison average 13 fewer PPG away from home this year (72 PPG overall and 59 PPG on the road) and shoot nearly 10% lower from the field (44% overall and 35% on the road). In Saturday’s win vs Omaha they were only able to average 0.89 PPP vs a team that ranks 346th nationally in defensive efficiency. They’re catching Denver playing confident basketball and we think the Pioneers have a solid shot to win this one outright. Take the points. |
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01-10-22 | 76ers -10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 over Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets look like a dumpster fire right now and are in a tough spot here coming off a game yesterday, playing their 3rd game in four days AND facing a rested Sixers team. Houston gave up 141 points last night to Minnesota and continue to be the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Rockets give up 127.8PPG on the season and 1.233-points per possession. Houston is getting beat by an average of -8.6PPG on the season, but in their last five games they have a negative differential of minus -14.4PPG. Philadelphia on the other hand is playing really well right now with a +/- differential of +12.4PPG in their last five games. In that same span of five games the Sixers have the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers and 9th best defensive efficiency numbers. These two teams just played in Philly earlier this month with the 76ers winning by 20 points. Philadelphia is rested and will be primed for a big road win here. Lay it. |
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01-09-22 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +1.5 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland +1.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - The Badgers have started the New Year with a bang beating Purdue on the road and stomping Iowa at home. This is still a very young team that will have ups and downs this season and this is a really tough spot for them on the road after those 2 huge wins. Maryland is a solid team and they are in must win mode. The Terps have started the Big 10 season 0-3 with losses @ Iowa, @ Illinois, and vs Northwestern. They can’t afford to lose this one at home before they take to the road again next Wednesday. Maryland is 8-6 on the season but they’ve been very competitive with all but one of their losses going to the wire. They’ve actually held the lead in the 2nd half in all but one of their losses so this team is much better than their record. Wisconsin is not a great shooting team ranking 275th in eFG% and 302nd in 3 point percentage but they thrive at getting to the FT line (21% of their points come from the stripe). Maryland does a very good job at not fouling so the Badgers will have problems getting to the line on the road in this one. This line has been over adjusted due to recent results. Wisconsin was just a 13 point dog @ Purdue earlier this week and now they are favored @ Maryland? We have the Terps as a small favorite here and expect them to get the win in their first home game as an underdog this season. |
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01-09-22 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 229.5 | Top | 141-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - Houston is coming off a 106-130 loss to the Mavericks and the significance of that game is the following. The Mavs are one of the slowest pace teams in the NBA ranking 28 out of 30 teams. Minnesota is one of the fastest ranking 8th. Dallas averages just 105.6PPG and they managed 130 versus this Rockets defense which is not a surprise considering Houston ranks 2nd to last in the league in defensive efficiency. In their last five games the Rockets are giving up an average of 124PPG. Minnesota has their Big 3 back on the court with Towns, Russell and Edwards and they’ll play fast and score plenty of point to help this game get Over the number. The Wolves are 14th in scoring this season at 109PPG. Houston is the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA which means plenty of possessions for both teams and more scoring opportunities. When these same two teams met in October, they combined for 230 points. The bet here is OVER! |
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01-08-22 | St. Mary's v. BYU UNDER 132.5 | Top | 43-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
#797/798 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 132 St Mary’s @ BYU, 10 PM ET - This is a big rivalry between two teams fighting for the 2nd spot in the West Coast Conference behind Gonzaga. Both teams are outstanding defensively with BYU check in with the 29th best defensive efficiency rating in college basketball allowing .93-points per possession. Those numbers are legit as they come against 35th toughest schedule to date. As good as the Cougars defensive numbers are, St Mary’s is better. The Gaels rank 12th in DEFF allowing .905PPP and they’ve faced the 64th toughest schedule. St Mary’s has allowed 60 or less points in 9 of their last eleven games. The other big key here is tempo. The Gaels rank 304th in tempo and have an average possession length of 18.5 seconds. In this heated rivalry these two teams have combined for 116 and 114 total points in the last two meetings a year ago. This game should be another low scoring defensive affair. |
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01-08-22 | Heat v. Suns OVER 216.5 | Top | 123-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 217 Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - We’ve been successful on several occasions recently with the OVER in the Heat game and will go back to the well today. Without a proven rim protector on defense teams are in attack mode when they face the Heat. Miami averages just 3.1 blocks per game which is last in the NBA and most recently in their last five games that average dips to just 2.0BPG. Miami is allowing over 112PPG in their last five games and their defense efficiency rates near the bottom of the NBA. Scoring hasn’t been an issue for the Heat though and they recently got two of their best shooters back in the lineup with the return of Duncan and Strus. In the last five games the Heat are scoring 115PPG and have the 5th best offensive efficiency rating. Miami is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA on the year at 37.3% but in their last five games that number improves to 41%. On the other side of the court we have the Suns who rank 3rd overall in scoring this season at 112.4PPG, 8th in offensive efficiency and 5th in pace of play. Phoenix is the 2nd best shooting team in the league at 47.5% and 5th in 3-point percentage at 36.9%. The Suns have some gaudy offensive numbers in recent games with 123 and 133 points in two of their last three games. This total is set slightly higher than league average of 216.8 and our analytics suggest it will be much higher scoring than that. |
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01-08-22 | Oral Roberts -1.5 v. Western Illinois | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -1.5 over Western Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET - WIU is improved this year after finishing 7-15 a year ago but much of that is due to an easy schedule (321st SOS). Almost half of their games (7) have come vs teams ranked below 300 or non Division 1 teams. This ORU team will be the highest ranked team WIU has played this season. The Leathernecks are not playing well right now losing 3 straight games, including a 6 points loss vs Nebraska Omaha who is ranked as the 338th team in the nation (out of 358 teams). We have a very solid comparison point with these 2 teams as they’ve each played the same 3 conference teams in their last 3 Summit League games. Those teams were Denver (ORU won by 17 / WIU won by 4 on OT), Nebraska Omaha (ORU won by 35 points / WIU lost by 6), and St Thomas (ORU won by 15 / WIU lost by 13). This is a terrible match up for Western as Oral Roberts loves to shoot the 3 and they are solid at doing so (38% which is 24th nationally) while the Leathernecks are really bad at defending the arc (324th nationally). On the other end of the court Western Illinois also gets a bunch of their points from beyond the arc but the Golden Eagles are one of the best at defending the 3 point line allowing just 29% (46th nationally). ORU has 6 losses on the season, however 5 of those came vs teams ranked inside the top 100. WIU, on the other hand, has played only 1 team all season ranked inside the top 100 (21 point loss). We’ll lay this small number on the road. |
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01-07-22 | Spurs v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - The Spurs are not in a good situation here playing their 5th straight road game and are short-handed without their second and third leading scorers, Kelson Johnson and Derrick White. Also out tonight are key reserves Vassell and Young. The 76ers have a few players out too but have their key players available in Embiid, Harris and Curry. The Sixers are 7-8 SU at home but come into this game having won 5 straight games. Their most recent home game was a 20-point blowout win over the Rockets. San Antonio is 8-12 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. In their last five games the 76ers have some impressive numbers with the 9th best defensive efficiency and the 4th best offensive efficiency rating. In comparison the Spurs are 27th in OEFF their last five games, 17th in DEFF. Lastly, the 76ers have a +12.8PPG average differential their last 5 games and our analytics say that will be the margin here. Bet Philly |
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01-06-22 | Pistons v. Grizzlies OVER 217.5 | Top | 88-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Pistons are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and it showed last night when they allowed 140 points last night to Charlotte. On the season the Pistons allowed 111PPG, are the 29th worst FG% defense, 28th defending the 3-points line and 24th in defensive rebounding. Memphis is quietly putting together a fantastic season having won 6 straight to improve to 25-14 on the year. The Grizzlies are 5th in scoring at 111.3PPG but have averaged over 115PPG in their last six games. Detroit is the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA, the Grizzlies are 12th so expect plenty of possessions to push this game over the Total. |
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01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge early season game for the Hoosiers. They currently sit with a 1-2 Big 10 record and they can’t afford to drop to 1-3 with a home loss. OSU is 3-0 on the season but they are fortunate to be in that spot as they nearly lost @ Nebraska on Sunday. The Huskers, rated 141st nationally and the only Big 10 team outside the top 100, led OSU by 5 points with 35 seconds remaining in the game on Sunday. A late key 3 pointer by OSU and missed FT’s by Nebraska sent the game to OT where the Buckeyes won. OSU shot nearly 50% from 3 point land (16 of 34) and still struggled to put away the worst team in the Big 10 on the road. IU will be highly motivated coming off a 3-point loss @ Penn State. Sort of the opposite of the Buckeye win on Sunday, Indiana shot very poorly @ PSU hitting just 39% overall and only 23% from beyond the arc and still had 2 shots in the final 10 seconds to tie the game missing both. IU could easily be undefeated on the season as their 3 losses were all tight road games including a OT loss @ Syracuse and a 5-point loss @ Wisconsin a game they led by 20 points before the Badgers made a furious comeback. The Hoosiers have the best defense in the Big 10 ranking 14th nationally in efficiency, 4th in eFG% allowed and 1st in the nation at defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 39%. IU is unblemished at home with a 9-0 record and 7 of those wins coming by double digits. A great defense at home in a must win spot has been a solid long term money maker and we’ll jump on the Hoosiers here. |
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01-05-22 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -1 | Top | 47-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -1 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - ISU is coming off their first loss of the season on Saturday getting tripped up at home 77-72 by Baylor – Ken Pom’s #1 rated team. In that game the Cyclones made ONE three pointer in 14 attempts which put them at 7% from beyond the arc. Even with that, they made a nice comeback and nearly took out the Bears. Prior to that loss ISU was 12-0, including 4-0 vs top 50 teams with 3 of those 4 wins coming by double digits vs Iowa, Memphis, and Xavier. Tech has played the 3rd EASIEST schedule in the nation thus far (356th ranked SOS). The Red Raiders have played 3 top 50 teams and they are 1-2 in those games. It’s been almost 3 weeks since they played a team with a pulse which is not ideal. On top of that, they’ve played only one true road game this year – loss at Providence – and that was back on December 1st. If you subtract those 3 top 50 opponents Tech’s average opponent rank is 292nd. Iowa State is a great defensive team ranking 7th in efficiency, 11th in eFG% allowed, 5th in 3 point % allowed, 10th in PPG allowed (57), and 6th in defensive turnover rate. We love good defensive teams at home as a dog or low favorite, especially off a home loss. ISU was terrible last year but their new head coach Otzelberger has total revamped this team with big time transfers from Kansas, Penn State, Minnesota, Washington State and UNLV. The remain undervalued in our opinion and we like them to win this one. |
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01-05-22 | Pistons v. Hornets -10 | Top | 111-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -10 over Detroit Pistons, 7:10PM ET - This line looks “fishy” in our opinion as if the oddsmakers are baiting you to bet the Pistons. We won’t bite and will side with the Hornets. Detroit is coming off their biggest win of the season, a road victory at Milwaukee. The young Pistons let down here against a Hornets team off two straight losses. Prior to their most recent losses the Hornets had won three straight including a 24-point home win over the Rockets as an 8-point chalk. Detroit is 3-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -11.4PPG. Charlotte is a respectable 9-5 SU at home with a +1.9PPG +/-. Charlotte is 4-0 ATS at home off a loss this year, Detroit is 1-6 ATS off a win. |
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01-04-22 | Spurs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 104-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -6.5 over the San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - Our handicapping methods have certainly been altered the past few years as you can’t rely solely on statistics to base your wagers. Much of what you do today has to rely on the lineups and who’s playing on any given night. The Raptors don’t have great overall statistics this season as they’ve been dealing with injuries and covid more so than most teams. They are getting back to full strength, and it’s shown in their play with two straight solid wins over the Clippers and Knicks. San Antonio is dealing with covid and injuries with Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker IV joining Dejounte Murray in Covid protocols which means the Spurs will be down their 1st, 5th, and 6th leading scorers. The Raptors have been a strong home team in the past and we like them to get a double-digit win here against a depleted Spurs team. |
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01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest -1 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
#626 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Wake will be desperate for a home win after losing 2 straight down to the wire road games. At Louisville last Wednesday, Wake led by 1 with just over a minute remaining and lost by 4 despite shooting just 38% overall, 25% from deep, and making 11 fewer FT’s. At Miami on Saturday the Deacs shot much better but were only awarded 8 FT attempts the entire game while the Canes shot 27 from the line. Despite that WF was down 3 with under 3:00 minutes remaining and lost by 8. Now back at home where they are 7-0 this year and average 84 PPG, we expect them to play very well. They catch FSU off a huge road win @ NC State on Saturday and now playing again on the road just a few days later. They shot lights out (51%) in that 2 point win over NC State which is well above their season average. Even after that effort FSU is still shooting just 43% on the road so expect a big regression here vs a solid Wake defense which has allowed opponents to shoot just 38% here at home. Prior to Saturday’s win, the Noles were 0-3 SU on road games with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. They are now 0-7 ATS their last 7 road games. These 2 met last year @ FSU and a Wake team that was ranked 115th at the time nearly pulled off the upset vs an FSU team that was ranked 15th at the time. The Deacs lost that game in OT. Wake is MUCH better this season and FSU has regressed. We expect the Demon Deacons to pick up a home win on Tuesday. |
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01-03-22 | Jazz -9 v. Pelicans | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation as an elite team like the Jazz are off a loss against one of the leagues weaker teams. Utah has nearly everyone back at full strength but the Pels do not as Ingram and Valanciunas are both doubtful tonight. New Orleans was just a -12.5-point underdog at home to the Bucks and lost by 23 points. Utah is 12-3 SU on the road this season with the best average differential of +11.8PPG. The Jazz have the best offensive efficiency numbers away from home and the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers. The Pelicans have the 24th worst average +/- at home and 24th in DEFF on their home court. A motivated Jazz team get a 16-point win here. |
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01-02-22 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 214.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10 PM ET - Both teams are dealing with covid issues or injuries so we don't see either of these teams wanting to get into a track meet here. On the season both have favored lower paced games with the Pacer being the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Cavs are 19th. The Cavaliers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the league, holding opponents to 1.051-points per possession. The Pacers have been known for their defense but have slipped this year ranking 19th in DEFF but they do hold opponents to 107.6PPG. Indiana is an average shooting team overall but one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. Cleveland is better offensively but they're also missing several key players from their rotation. The Pacers are now 11-2 their last 13 road games, while the Cavs are on a 7-2 Under streak as a home favorite. |
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01-02-22 | Illinois State v. Valparaiso OVER 138.5 | Top | 76-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
#767/768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 138.5 Points – Illinois State vs Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET - The Illinois State offense has been impressive this season. They rank 26th nationally averaging 81 PPG and they just put up 85 points on Wednesday vs a Wisconsin defense that was allowing just 61 PPG prior to that game. The Redbirds are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 40% of their triples (10th nationally). They are facing a Valpo defense that ranks 266th at defending the arc. Valpo also shoots the 3 very well (almost 36%) and ISU ranks 296th at defending the triple. Both teams should light it up from deep. Valpo’s overall offensive stats are misleading because they played their first 9 games (minus non division 1 games) without arguably their best scorer Kobe King (Wisconsin transfer). They averaged 66 PPG without King and 74 PPG with him in the line up. Both teams rank inside the top 85 in eFG% offense and outside the top 150 in eFG% defense. ISU has scored at least 74 points in 10 of their last 11 games and they’ve gotten to at least 80 points in 9 of those games. Their games have averaged 157 total points. Valpo games this year have averaged 141 total PPG with King sitting on the bench for most of the season. This one is set too low and we grab the OVER. |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 218.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 218.5 Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the league average of 216PPG but we expect it to be much higher scoring than that. The Bulls were scoring at will going into their game last night versus Indiana. Chicago had scored 130+ points in 3 of their prior four games and 113 or more in 5 straight before running into the Pacers. Last night the Bulls shot poorly at 41% which is significantly lower than their season average of 47%. The Bulls will make more shots tonight against a Wizards team that is 16th in opponents FG% defense and 19th in points allowed per game at 108.5. Washington will get their points too with the 7th best shooting offense in the NBA and they have All-Star Bradley Beal back in the lineup after missing a few games with Covid. Don’t be misled by the Wizards defense in their last game against the Cavaliers where they gave up 93-points because the Cavs were short handed. Prior to that game the Wiz had allowed 116 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. The Bulls are 4-1 Over their last five games playing without rest, while Washington Over 5 of six when coming off a win. BET OVER! |
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01-01-22 | Villanova v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#620 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +1.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The Hall is coming off a loss on Wednesday losing by 5 points @ #21 Providence. The Pirates shot just 39% overall and only 21% from beyond the arc but still had a shot down 3 with less than 30 seconds remaining. They were a bit rusty having not played a game since December 12th so that game should help them here. Nova, on the other hand, has now been off since December 21st and are in a similar situation going on the road for this one. The Cats have not been great on the road this year with a 2-3 SU record. Their road wins have come against teams ranked 250 or lower and their 3 losses have come vs solid competition all in the top 100. Seton Hall absolutely falls into that category ranking 28th in our power ratings. Villanova relies on the 3-point shot almost more than any team in college basketball with over 42% of their points coming from deep (13th most nationally). The problem here is the Cats have been a really poor shooting team on the road hitting only 29% of their 3-point shots and they are facing a SH defense that ranks 7th nationally defending the arc allowing 25%. This is a good match up for the undervalued Pirates playing at home. The dog has covered 5 of 6 in this series and we like Seton Hall to win this one. |
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12-31-21 | Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 217.5 | Top | 121-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:40PM ET - Both teams are dealing with the “omnicold” protocols with players out which has left each team with shortened rotations. These two teams prefer to play slower to begin with as they rank 19th and 20th in pace of play. Now with limited regular players you can bet neither team will be anxious to get into a run and shoot game here. The Hawks just played two higher scoring games against the Bulls who are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 110PPG. Prior to those two games the Hawks had stayed Under in 3 straight games with less than 202 total points scored in each. Cleveland is really hurting at the point guard position, and it has led to some lower scoring games. The Cavs have totaled less than 215 points in 6 of their last seven games. When these two teams met in October at full strength, they combined for 196 total points which was the 5th straight Under in this series. We are betting that trend continues here. |
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12-30-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 93-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards -3.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - This is a wager on the team with “less attrition” as the Cavaliers are decimated at the point guard position right now. The Cavs lost Sexton early on but didn’t miss a beat with Garland and Rubio filling in, but now both of those players are out now too. Cleveland is also missing Osman and Allen, both key rotation players. The Wizard are also shorthanded, but they may be getting Bradley Beal back tonight if he clears protocols. Without Beal the Wizard battled in Miami the other night getting key contributions from Gafford, Kuzma, Dinwiddie and Bertans who all scored 16+ points. Washington has been a solid bet on team at home off a loss this season with a 3-1 ATS record. Cleveland on the road off a loss is 1-3 ATS. The bet here is Washington. |
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12-29-21 | Tennessee v. Alabama -2 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
#698 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -2 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Love this spot at home for the talented Crimson Tide. They are coming off an upset loss at the hands of Davidson. They were 9 point favorites in that game and lost by 1 point. Meanwhile UT is off a huge upset win over Arizona who came into the game 11-0 on the season. That game was at home for the Vols and now they play just their 2nd true road game of the season. Alabama’s schedule has prepared them for these type of games as they’ve already faced 8 top 100 teams this season. They have wins over both Gonzaga and Houston who both rank higher than this Tennessee team. The Vols have played 5 top 100 teams this year and they are 3-2 SU in those games. The remainder of their wins come vs teams that rank 150 or lower. Tennessee’s defense has been very good this year but this will be the best offense they’ve faced so far (Bama 9th in offensive efficiency) and again the game is on the road. Bama shoots a lot of 3’s and if there is a weakness for UT’s defense it’s defending the arc (91st nationally). The Vols also get to the line very rarely generating just 11% of their points from the stripe which is 352nd in the nation. Tough to win on the road in a game like this if they don’t get some significant points from the stripe. Bama has Won 22 of their last 25 home games and they get another here. |
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12-28-21 | Cavs -4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are missing a few key players with either injuries or Covid protocols, but the Pelicans losses are more significant at the moment. The Cavs have had a few games to adjust to without key personnel and the Pels have not. The line on this game is telling us as much and you shouldn’t be scared off by this number considering the Cavs recent success. Cleveland's past 11 wins have come by at least 10 points, and the Cavs lead the Eastern Conference with 15 double-digit victories. Cleveland has the 3rd best average point differential on the road this season at +5.7PPG. The Cavaliers are one of very few teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this season. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans don’t play any. New Orleans is 24th in DEFF ratings allowing 1.123-points per possession. They are 23rd or worse in 3-point field goal percentage defense, 26th in FG% D and 27th in points allowed per game. Cleveland can pull another double digit road win here. |
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12-28-21 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +4 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh +4 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Pitt struggled early in the season losing 6 of their first 8 games but they’ve righted the ship. It also wasn’t as bad early on as it may have seemed with 4 of those losses coming vs top 100 teams including two 1-point losses vs Minnesota & Virginia. The Panthers have now won 3 of their last 4 including an impressive road win @ St Johns. Their defense has picked up holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 0.90 PPP or less and 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 60 points. Notre Dame has underperformed all season with just a 2-8 ATS record. They are just 1-5 SU away from home (road or neutral) and their only win was vs Chaminade. In games away from home the Irish are hitting just 42% of their shots while allowing 50%. Last year Pitt was favored at home in this match up 3.5 points and now they are getting 4 points. Too big of a swing in the spread and we really like the way Pitt is playing right now. The dog is 10-3-1 ATS in this series and we like the home puppy getting points here. |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 229 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229 Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - This is a big number, but our model suggests it’s not high enough. Scoring is trending up in the NBA right now and we see this game finishing with more than 232 total points. These two teams recently met and combined for 254 points. There were 193 field goal attempts in the game which is significantly higher than the league average of 176. The Spurs are 6th in pace of play while the Jazz are 11th so we know we will get an up-and-down type of game. The Jazz hold the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA while the Spurs rank 11th. San Antonio has scored 112 or more points in 9 straight games and are coming off a 138-point outing against the Lakers and 144 versus the Pistons. Utah has scored 118 or more points in 7 of their last nine games and 123+ points in 5 of nine. The Jazz are on a 13-4-1 Over run, Spurs Over in 21 of their last 28 at home. The Jazz are without Donovan here and the Spurs are minus Murray but we still like these two teams to score a ton of points here. |
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12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* PHOENIX SUNS -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 5:10 PM ET - This is certainly a contrarian play as this number doesn’t look right at all. Consider this, the Warriors have been an underdog twice this season. Once recently in Toronto when they sat their starting lineup and again the first game of the season versus the Lakers. The Warriors were recently a 7-point favorite at home against the Suns and won by 22. Phoenix didn’t have Devin Booker in that game and they shot well below their season average by hitting just 38% from the field. The two teams had met in Phoenix prior to that game with the Suns winning by 8-points as a -3.5-point chalk. Phoenix has the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +10.8PPG while the Warriors have a +3.7-point differential on the road. The home team has won 5 straight in this rivalry and all five of those wins came by 6 or more points. Merry Christmas from ASA. |
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12-23-21 | Rockets v. Pacers -8.5 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* INDIANA PACERS -8.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a big road game in Milwaukee last night and they’ve really struggled when playing without rest. Houston is 0-4 SU on the year when playing the 2nd night of a B2B with a negative differential of minus -17PPG. The Rockets are playing their 6th game in 10 days and 3rd in four nights. Fatigue is going to be a major issue. Indiana is coming off an embarrassing 96-125 loss in Miami on Tuesday night and will be primed for a good effort here. The Pacers are much better than their 13-19 SU record as they rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 16th in DEFF. Houston is 27th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets -6 v. Thunder | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -6 over OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - Thunder off a satisfying win over the Grizzlies who had beaten them earlier this season 152-79 and now let down against the rested Nuggets. Denver has been off since the 17th after their game against the Nets was canceled due to covid. It’s not like OKC has a great home court as they are just 5-10 SU at home this year. The Thunder have the 3rd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Nuggets have the 8th best OEFF on the road and should outscore a Thunder offense at home that is 3rd worst in the league at 1.040PPP. Lay it. |
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12-22-21 | Oral Roberts +8 v. South Dakota State | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
#761 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +8 over South Dakota State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Too many points here. Last year ORU was +4.5 @ SDSU and won the game outright by 2 points. The Golden Eagles return 5 of their top 6 players from last year and will give South Dakota State problems again this season. ORU won the Summit League tourney last year, went to the NCAA tourney and beat both Ohio State and Florida making the Sweet 16 where they lost by 2 points vs Arkansas. We’re getting value in the number on Oral Roberts here. They’ve already played 2 road games vs teams that are rated higher than SDSU and the Golden Eagles were getting fewer points in BOTH of those games (+8 @ TCU and +7.5 @ Missouri State). SDSU, on the other hand, was just favored by 12 points (just 3 points more than this number) on Monday vs a UMKC team ranked nearly 100 spots lower than Oral Roberts. The Jackrabbits have relied on getting to the FT line a lot this year (111th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ORU doesn’t foul very much. On the other end, the Golden Eagles are a very good 3 point shooting team (31st nationally) and 48% of their points come from deep which is 2nd most in the nation. SDSU is poor at defending the arc (257th) so Oral Roberts will have success offensively. We give ORU a decent shot to pull the upset here and they are getting nearly double digits. Take the points. |
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12-21-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 220.5 | Top | 108-90 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 220.5 Phoenix Suns @ LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - The Lakers are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA but also one of the least efficient with the 25th ranked OEFF at 1.006 points per possession. For our wager though, the Lakers offense has been better in recent games averaging 1.055PPP which is 6th best. Phoenix also likes to play fast with the 5th fastest tempo in the NBA which means a lot of extra possessions in this game. The Suns are also one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA and average 112PPG. The Lakers are coming off a 51% shooting night and are the 8th best shooting team in the league. Phoenix is 2nd in overall team FG% and 5th in 3-point percentage. This regular season game won’t be like their playoff series of a year ago and we predict plenty of points here for an easy OVER. |
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12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Villanova -5.5 over Xavier, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We are siding with one of the best teams in the nation coming off 2 losses. This is a great spot to jump on Nova at home. The Cats lost their last 2 games @ Baylor and @ Creighton, with their most recent game vs the Blue Jays being their worst effort of the season. We look for them to play very well at home in a must win type game early in the season. They have only played 3 home games this season which resulted in wins of 40, 29, and 19 points. They are 35-3 SU their last 38 home games! The Wildcats have prepared themselves well by playing one of the top 10 SOS’s in the country. Nova has already faced FOUR teams ranked in Ken Pom’s top 10 – Baylor, Purdue, UCLA, and Tennessee. The rolled Tennessee and led by double digits in the 2nd half vs both Purdue & UCLA before losing tight games. Xavier is solid but they’ve feasted on home games so far this season. They’ve played just ONE true road game @ Oklahoma State a few weeks ago. Despite shooting a terrible 10 of 50 from 3-point land their last 2 games Villanova is still ranked 8th nationally in efficiency averaging 1.14 points per possession and they are still making a very solid 36.2% of their 3’s on the season. The favorite has covered 13 of the last 17 in this Big East battle and Xavier is 0-6 SU @ Villanova since joining the Big East. We like Nova to bounce back in a big way at home tonight. |
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12-20-21 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 223 | Top | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The value in the number is what has us on this Under as this O/U is set 4-points higher than what it should be according to our math model. Consider this, the Kings just faced the Spurs and Grizzlies who are similar to the Warriors in terms of pace of play, but neither of those teams defend like the Warriors. Golden State in #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.018 points per possession. Oddsmakers had posted O/U numbers on the Kings/Spurs, Kings/Grizzlies games of 227.5 and 221 so in the ballpark of this number. The Kings will have a tough time scoring here with a bottom half of the league offensive efficiency rating and team that doesn’t shoot particularly well at 45.4% overall and 33.5% from 3-point line. Last night the Kings shot 51% from the field and 56% from the 3-point line which was obviously an aberration. Golden State has held 5 of their last ten opponents to 100 or less points and haven’t put up gaudy offensive numbers themselves with 7 games of scoring 107 or less points. With players out for both teams we see this being a low scoring affair. BET UNDER. |
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12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore +12.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 54-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
#306227 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Maryland Eastern Shore +12.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 7 PM ET - UMES is undervalued right now as they step into this game with a perfect 7-0 ATS record. They have played well on the road winning 2 games already as an underdog and losing by 12 or less @ UConn, @ St Joes, @ Liberty, and @ Campbell, all teams rated higher than this Charlotte squad. UMES has some momentum winning 3 in a row and they’ve had 9 days off to rest up and get ready for this one. Charlotte just played Friday in a huge game for them @ Wake Forest. They lost by 3 but the final was misleading as Wake led the game by 19 before Charlotte made a furious comeback. With only a few days rest we anticipate a letdown here. The 49ers are 5-5 this year and their home wins have come by 2, 7 and 12 points along with a 17 point home loss vs Davidson. Not one of their wins this season has come by more than 12 points. The 49ers are poor defensively ranking 325th in eFG% allowed so they have a tough time pulling away in their games. UMES doesn’t have great overall stats on the year but they don’t turn the ball over and they shoot the 3 quite well at 35%. Facing a Charlotte defense that allows opponents to hit 35.6% (ranked 266th) we like Maryland Eastern Shore to hang around in this game. Take the points. |
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12-19-21 | Mavs v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have made great strides defensively this season and it’s showing in their record. Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 28th a year ago. The Wolves are averaging 108.7PPG which is 12th best in the NBA and are the 10th best rebounding team. Dallas is 26th in scoring this year and the 24th worst offense rebound team in the NBA. Dallas does hold teams to 104.6PPG this year but a lot of that has to do with how slow they play (3rd slowest in the NBA). The Mavs have the 22nd ranked FG% defense in the league. The Wolves have three impressive wins in a row over Portland, Denver and the Lakers most recently by 18-points. The Mavs are coming off a 3-point loss to that same Lakers team. Lay the points with Minnesota. |
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12-18-21 | Baylor v. Oregon UNDER 135.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* 707/708 UNDER 135.5 Baylor at Oregon 10 PM ET - Baylor’s defense is stifling as they allow just 54.1PPG on the season and have held all of their opponents to less than 63 points and three of them to less than 50-points. The Bears have the 3rd best overall defensive efficiency rating allowing .861PPP. Another key factor here is pace and Baylor ranks 190th in adjusted tempo. The Bears defend the 3-point line as well as anyone allowing 27.9% on the season and 43.3% inside the arc. Oregon has gotten off to a disappointing start with a 6-5 record, but they’ve faced the 65th toughest schedule to date and still have the 104th best defensive efficiency rating. Oregon knows to have a shot at winning this game they must control the tempo and keep this a low scoring game. The Ducks ae 308th in adjusted tempo this season and on average take 17.6 seconds to get a shot up which ranks 215th. Oregon 5-1 to the Under their last six at home against a team with a winning road record, Bears 4-1 Under their last five versus a team with a winning home record. |
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12-18-21 | Knicks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 over NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - Something isn’t quite right with this number and it looks very much like a trap to bet on the Knicks. So, we’ll side with Boston here minus the points. Granted the Celtics are coming off a game last night, but they also had 3 days off prior to Friday’s action so lack of rest isn’t an issue. The Knicks started the season out hot with a 5-1 SU record in October but since then they’ve struggled with an 8-15 run. In the Knicks most recent nine games they have just 2 wins and they came at the expense of the 9-20 Rockets and 10-17 Spurs. On paper the Celtics look similar to the Knicks with a 1-5 SU record in their last five games but take a look at that schedule. They’ve faced the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, Bucks and Warriors. Those five teams all rank top 9 in defensive efficiency and now the Celtics face a New York team that is 22nd in DEFF. Boston has advantages on the offensive end of the floor with the 13th highest scoring average compared to the Knicks 23rd ranked average. New York beat Boston in October at home by 4 in OT and we like the Celtics to get a measure of revenge here with a double-digit win. |
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12-17-21 | St. Mary's -2 v. San Diego State | Top | 53-63 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
#867 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -2 over San Diego State, Friday at 10 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix. St Mary’s has been waiting for this one. That’s because when these two faced off last year (first time in 10 years) SDSU embarrassed the Gaels 74-49. St Mary’s returned 100% of their minutes from last year so this veteran team was all there last year during that debacle. They are 10-2 this year and have already beaten 3 top 100 teams. San Diego State is 0-3 vs top 100 teams this year with 2 of those losses coming by double digits. The Aztecs are a poor shooting team which will be a problem here vs the 8th most efficient defense in the nation. SDSU ranks 302nd in FG%, 312th in 3 point FG%, and 320th in scoring. On top of that they only make 66% of their FT’s. San Diego State is 6-3 on the year but they’ve also had some luck on their side as their opponents have only shot 60% from the FT in games vs the Aztecs which is the 4th worst in the nation. Both teams are very good defensively but St Mary’s is the much better shooting team, extra motivated, and one of the more veteran teams in college basketball. This number is too small in our opinion. Take St Mary’s. |
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12-17-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 223.5 | Top | 128-126 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 223.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - These two teams are top 11 in the NBA in scoring with the Spurs averaging 108.8PPG while the Jazz put up 115.6PPG but each does it in different manners. The Spurs play fast with the 6th fastest tempo in the NBA while the Jazz play slower but are the #1 efficiency team in the league. San Antonio wants to get out in transition with the 6th best fast break scoring average in the NBA, which has also helped them own the 5th best field goal percentage in the league at 46.7%.. The Jazz are 1st in scoring, 1st in overall FG% and 3rd in 3-point percentage. Utah is averaging 122PPG their last five games with an incredible 1.244-points per possession. Yes, we know the Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Spurs are not. In the end, both teams score plenty here for this to get OVER the total. |
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12-16-21 | Wizards v. Suns OVER 212.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 212.5 Washington Wizards vs. Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - The line/money indicators suggest this game is going Over and our math models project 219 points being scored. Phoenix is missing leading scorer Booker but Ayton is back and they have plenty of other options including Chris Paul, Bridges and Crowder. We like the Suns field goal attempts in recent games which has been 93 or more in four straight games. Phoenix is the 5th fastest paced team in the NBA and the home team here which means they get the tempo they want. Washington is off a game last night in Sacramento who is similar to the Suns in pace and offensive efficiency and the Kings scored 119-points. Washington has allowed 113 or more points in 6 of their last seven games and their defensive efficiency in their last five games is 26th worst in the league. When playing without rest this season the Wizards are 4-0 to the Over with those games averaging 225PPG. This one goes OVER rather easily. |
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12-15-21 | Wizards v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 105-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +2.5 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Kings are coming off a couple road losses and return home where they had won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The Kings held a player only meeting after the recent 3 game road trip and aired some differences regarding effort amongst the team. Now that they are back at home, we expect a much better effort in this one. Washington meanwhile is coming off a tough game in the higher altitude of Denver on Monday night and will be shorthanded again here without Kyle Kuzma who is in Covid protocol. The Wizards opened the season by winning 6 of their first eleven road games but have since lost four of five away from home. Washington has the 21st worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -3.9PPG. If you look at overall season statistics it shows Washington has an advantage defensively but when you focus on their last five games the Kings have the better defensive efficiency numbers. Offensively the Kings have been better all season long and in their most recent five games too at 1.126-points per possession. Sacramento gets it done tonight at home. |
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12-15-21 | South Dakota State v. Missouri State -2.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -2.5 over South Dakota State, Wed at 7 PM ET - Terrible spot for South Dakota State here. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off an upset win over Washington State (game played in Spokane). They won by just 3 points in a game they shot 62% from beyond the arc with Washington State hitting only 25% of their triples. Wash State also played without one of their better players (Jackson) in that game. Prior to that win, SDSU lost @ Idaho by 14 on Wednesday. That’s an Idaho team that ranks below 300 and whose only win previous to beating the Jackrabbits was over something called George Fox University. Missouri State returns all 5 starters from a team that went 17-7 last season. One of those starters is out with an injury but they are experienced on their bench as well. The Bears are currently rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC only behind Loyola Chicago. They are a solid shooting team that is facing a most likely tired and terrible defensive team in South Dakota State – ranks below 250th in most major defensive categories. If they need to protect a lead late MSU hits 80% from the line as a team. Great spot for the Bears facing a SDSU team that has traveled to Idaho, then Washington, and now Missouri all in the span of a week. |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +3 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +3 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Scheduling certainly favors the home team Blazers as the Suns are off a game last night against the Clippers. That’s significant considering the multitude of injuries the Suns currently have with 6 players out including starters Booker and Ayton. Portland has been much better at home than on the road this year with a 10-5 SU season record and four of those losses have come this month. Portland is coming off a home loss as a favorite and primed for this huge Western Conference showdown. This will be the third meeting of the season with the home team winning both and 6 of the last seven meetings. Phoenix has been dominating this season but that is with a full supporting cast. Not tonight. Bet the Blazers. |
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12-14-21 | Georgia State v. Mississippi State -9 | Top | 50-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -9 over Georgia State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - MSU is off back to back losses vs Minnesota & Colorado State and they really need this win at home. Each of those losses was decided in the final seconds as MSU was tied with Minnesota with under 1 minute remaining and they led CSU by 8 with less than 6 minutes remaining and lost by 3. The Bulldogs were 6-1 SU prior to those losses with their only setback coming vs Louisville. Georgia State is 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming in OT @ High Point. The 2 top 100 teams they faced on the road both routed this team with Richmond winning by 16 and Rhode Island winning by 35. Both of those teams rank lower than this Mississippi State team. GSU plays terrible defense which is why they struggle on the road. The Panthers rank 357th in eFG% defense and 355th in 3 point FG defense allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 43% from deep. MSU is 68th nationally in defensive efficiency and will be the highest rated defense that Georgia State has faced this year. MSU also has a huge size advantage (69th nationally in average height with GSU 348th in that category) and should control the glass on both ends. The Bulldogs shoot very well at home (50% overall & 41% from deep) and they will have their way vs this poor GSU defense. Must win for MSU off 2 losses and they play with urgency tonight. |
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12-13-21 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Washington Wizards @ Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The Wizards are averaging 105.7PPG on the season which ranks 23rd in the NBA. Denver is scoring less at 105.5PPG (24th). Both are near average or below in offensive efficiency and each rank 17th or worse in 3-point shooting under 34.6%. When it comes to defensive efficiency numbers the Nuggets rank 15th and Washington is 19th so again near average. The key here is the pace of play as both like to play slow. The Nuggets are 28th in pace of play at 96 possessions per game, Washington is 24th at 96.1. Denver is coming off two straight high scoring games but that was against the fast paced Spurs team. The Under is 4-0 the last four meetings in Denver between these two teams. Bet UNDER |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
#877/878 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 131 Points – Rhode Island vs UW Milwaukee, Monday at 8 PM ET - Two slow paced, solid defensive teams facing off in this game. URI ranks 314th in pace and their defense allows just 62 PPG on the season. They rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 18th in eFG% defense. They have allowed only 1 team this season to reach 70 points and they are facing a UWM team that ranks 318th in scoring averaging 63 PPG. Milwaukee’s offensive struggles have come vs a weak defensive slate of opponents. 7 of Milwaukee’s 9 opponents currently rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. URI will be just the 3rd team they’ve faced this year that ranks inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency and the Panthers were able to score just 45 and 54 points in the other 2 games. UWM ranks 275th in pace and their defense is the strength of their team ranking 58th in eFG% allowed. They match up very well defensively vs Rhode Island as the Rams score the vast majority of their points inside the arc and at the FT line. Milwaukee’s D has defended inside the arc very well (26th nationally) and they foul very little. The Rams offense has topped 72 points just twice this season and those games were vs fast paced teams with very poor defenses (Georgia State & Bryant). The projected final here is right around 70-62 in favor of URI. Our projections have both teams coming up short of those projections. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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12-11-21 | Houston v. Alabama -1 | Top | 82-83 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#716 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Houston, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Big game here and we give Bama the edge at home. The Crimson Tide have a record of 16-1 SU at home since start of last year and they are 12-5 ATS in those games. Their average margin of victory in those 17 home games was +15 points per game. This year they are 4-0 here with an average margin of victory of +19 points per game. They have had a week off since beating Gonzaga in Seattle 91-82 last Saturday. The Tide dominated that game vs last year’s National Champions holding as much as an 18 point lead in the 2nd half. That that game was in Gonzaga’s back yard. This will be their first home game since November 17th when they beat Oakland, the top team in the Horizon League, by 27 points. We absolutely respect Houston and know they are a very good team, but this will be their first true road game of the season. It’s also been almost 3 weeks since they’ve played a legitimate opponent with their last 3 games coming against teams ranked 336th, 314th, and 231st. The Cougars have 3 wins vs top 100 opponents this year, however all 3 of those teams are struggling this season (Virginia, Butler, and Oregon). They lost to Wisconsin on a neutral court for their only setback. Houston had an outstanding 28-4 record last season but they only played 8 true road games and they were 5-3 SU in those games with losses to East Carolina, Tulsa, and Wichita State. Two evenly matched teams here and home court will be a huge factor. Bama gets the win. |
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12-11-21 | Jazz v. Wizards OVER 218 | Top | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 218 Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz are quietly flying under the radar right now with everyone focused on the Suns and the Warriors in the West, but Utah has won 6 straight and 10 of their last twelve. In the most recent 6 game winning streak they have averaged 126PPG with an efficiency rating of 1.288PPP. The Wizards have seen their scoring go up in their last five games averaging 107PPG compared to their season average of 105PPG. Washington has also allowed more in their most recent games allowing 111PPG their last five. Both teams can shoot it with the Jazz holding the #1 FG percentage in the NBA at 47.9% while the Wizards are 9th at 46.2%. The Jazz are on a 5-1 Over streak, Washington is Over in 6 of their last seven. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - I’ll start by saying this, I hate betting on the Lakers as I simply don’t trust them to play hard every night, which is a byproduct of their best player not being the hardest worker in the gym. Tonight I will make an exception as I do feel the Lakers will put forth a maximum effort against the Thunder. OKC has beaten the Lakers twice this season and came from behind in both after trailing by 19 and 26 in each game. Those embarrassing losses should have L.A. focused tonight, not to mention they are coming off a loss last night to Memphis. The Lakers were just a 4-point favorite in Memphis and are now laying just 5-points to the 8-win Thunder. OKC has won two straight, but one of those came at the 4-20 Pistons expense, while the other was against a Raptors team coming off two big wins over Washington and Milwaukee. Prior to their two wins the Thunder had lost 8 straight, two of which came against a bad Rockets team. The Lakers have a slight edge in defensive efficiency and huge advantage offensively as they rank 5th in scoring compared to an OKC team averaging just 99.3PPG which ranks 30th in the NBA. |
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12-09-21 | Texas v. Seton Hall +2.5 | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
#852 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall +2.5 over Texas, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here in our opinion. This line opened Texas -2 and we have Seton Hall power rated as a 2-point favorite. Texas is 6-1 but they’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 185 this season. That was a double digit loss vs Gonzaga. The Horns also have played one 1 road game this year and haven’t been away from home since November 13th. This is a tough spot for them to be favored against an undervalued Seton Hall team. We were on the Pirates earlier this year when they were a dog @ Michigan and won outright. They’ve played the tougher schedule having already faced 2 top 20 teams and 5 ranked inside the top 140. Seton Hall’s only loss this season was by 3 points vs Ohio State, who just beat Duke a week ago. The Pirates are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 4 senior starters and 3 more upperclassmen who contribute off the bench. They play outstanding defense (30th in efficiency & 15th in eFG% defense) and they are one of the better rebounding teams in the country. The Longhorns are integrating a number of new transfers into the rotation and new head coach Chris Beard is still perfecting his schemes on both ends of the court with this team. Seton Hall is by far the best team Texas has played in nearly a month and we don’t see the Horns winning this game on the road. Take the points. |
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12-08-21 | Celtics v. Clippers -3 | Top | 111-114 | Push | 0 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3 over Boston Celtics, 10:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Celtics who are coming off a marquee game against the Lakers last night and are playing their 4th game in 6 days. The Clippers have had two days off and will be the much fresher team in this match up. The Clippers have underachieved thus far, but they have won 3 of their last four games including a pair of road wins against the Lakers and Blazers. The Celtics are 7-7 SU on the road this season but only 3 of those wins came against a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 40-22 SU their last 62 home games with a +/- differential of plus +5.8PPG. The bet here is the Clippers as a low favorite. |
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12-08-21 | Marquette +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like this spot for Marquette coming off a loss on Saturday @ Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles have been better than expected this year with 3 wins already over top 100 opponents including Illinois, West Virginia, and Ole Miss. KSU is coming off a big win over in-state foe Wichita State. Those 2 hadn’t played in 18 years and a big deal was made of that game so KSU could be a little flat here. There is also a good chance they’ll be without their leading scorer Pack (16 PPG) who is dealing with a concussion. Prior to their win over Wichita all of KSU’s wins were vs teams ranked 288th or lower. The only 2 top 100 teams they faced prior to Sunday but ended in losses for the Wildcats (Illinois & Arkansas). KSU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but in their 5 wins they’ve faced 3 teams with an offensive efficiency rank of below 300 and their opponents average offensive efficiency rank in those win is 278th. Marquette ranks in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Marquette remains undervalued having already won 3 games outright as an underdog this season. The Golden Eagles will give the Cats all they can handle here and we give them a great shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-07-21 | Nets -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - The Mavericks have potential injuries to Luka and Porzingis and even if they do play we like the visiting Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Bulls on Saturday (which we called) and is very good off a “beat” this season with a 6-0 record. Brooklyn’s James Harden has not shot it well this season but a return to the state of Texas may do wonders for his confidence. Brooklyn is better on both ends of the court in this matchup with the 5th ranked defensive efficiency compared to the Mavericks 18th ranked unit. Offensively the Nets also have the advantage offensively ranking 11th in OEFF compared the Mavs who rank 21st. The Nets are 8-2 SU away from home this season with the 3rd best overall point differential of ++6.7PPG. The Mavs have lost two straight at home to inferior teams and this will be their 3rd. |
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12-07-21 | Bradley v. Toledo -6 | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
#610 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toledo -6 over Bradley, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a 13 point loss @ Michigan State over the weekend and we look for them to bounce back with a home win. Speaking of him, Toledo is just happy to be playing a home game as they’ve played only 2 of their 8 games this season at home. Even with that, they have a solid 6-2 record on the season. Speaking of home games, the Rockets have won 17 of their last 18 games at Savage Arena with 15 of those 17 wins coming by at least 6 points which would give them a cover tonight (spread as of this writing is -5.5). They return a number of key players from a team that finished last season with a 21-9 record. Bradley has had to replace a number of their top players from a year ago with 8 new players on the team. After starting the year with a 1-5 record, the Braves have won 3 straight but those wins were all at home and 2 of those wins came vs teams ranked below 300. The one game they did win vs a solid opponent was a 2 point win at home over Northern Iowa. Bradley was +4.5 at home in that game and now they are +5.5 on the road vs a Toledo team we have power rated higher than UNI. Value on the host here. Bradley has only played 1 true road game this season and that was their season opener in early November, a 16 point loss @ South Dakota State. They have a record of 2-10 SU on the road since the beginning of last season. One huge advantage for Toledo here is at the FT line. They get there a lot with 22% of their points coming from the stripe (40th in CBB). Bradley sends teams to the line a lot with 23.6% of their opponent’s points coming from the line (20th most in CBB). Toledo shoots 78% from the line. Bradley shoots 58% from the line and they don’t get there much (14% of points from FT line – 309th). Rockets win and cover at home. |
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12-06-21 | Wizards v. Pacers OVER 212.5 | Top | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 212.5 Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - Scoring is starting to trend up in the NBA after a slow start to the season. The league average of a NBA game is currently 215PPG and we see this game as above average in terms of scoring and predict 222 total points. These teams have met once this season already and combined for 246 points in regulation. Washington has gone Over in 4 of their last five games and all of those four Overs finished with 215 or more points. Indiana has also favored the Over in recent games with a 5-1 record and all five of those finished with 211 or more points. Wizards on a 4-1 Over streak on the road, Pacers 5-0 Over their last five at home. The analytics say this game will be slightly higher scoring than league average. Bet Over. |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -2 over Illinois, Monday at 7 PM ET - We went against Iowa on Friday night when they traveled to Purdue and the Hawks impressed us. They lost by just 7 facing the #1 team in the country in one of the toughest venues in the nation. A very good 3-point shooting team (37th best nationally), Iowa hit only 23% from beyond the arc in that game and made 12 fewer FT’s than the Boilers and still had a shot trailing by 2 points with 2:30 remaining. Not only that, they did so without their star player Keegan Murray (25 PPG & 9 RPG) who was out with an ankle injury. Murray is scheduled to be back in the line up in this game. The Illini have played 3 games away from their home arena this year and it hasn’t been impressive. They lost @ Marquette, lost by 20 on a neutral site vs Cincinnati and beat Kansas State by 8 on a neutral. They’ve struggled all year with turnovers (308th in TO percentage) and now they face a pressing Iowa team that is very good at creating turnovers (37th nationally). It won’t help that the Illini will most likely be without their starting PG Curbelo who has a neck issue. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and the host has covered 6 of the last 7. With this number currently sitting at -2, we most likely just need Iowa to win this game at home where they’ve won 33 of their last 36 games. Take the Hawkeyes. |
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12-05-21 | Jazz -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -4.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:40 PM ET - There is a lot of buzz surrounding the Suns and Warriors as the best teams in the NBA but don’t sleep on this Jazz team. Even though they have 7 losses this season they are 8th in overall defensive efficiency and 1st in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have been a pleasant surprise this season and are doing it on the defensive end of the court with the 3rd best DEFF in the NBA. The difference between these two teams though is on the offensive end of the court where the Cavs rank 18th in OEFF. The Jazz have the best road differential in the NBA this season at +8.4PPG and they’ll win by at least that margin here. |
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings pick’em over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This is an interesting scheduling situation as these two teams just met on December 1st with the Kings winning on the road 124-115. Since then, the Kings have been off and resting while the Clippers are coming off an emotional game against the Lakers last night. L.A. is their 4th game in five nights and the second of a back-to-back so fatigue becomes a factor. In fact, the Clippers are 0-4 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. The Clippers have played a home-heavy schedule this season with 13 of their last 15 played on their home court, the two road games they played in that stretch were losses at New Orleans and Memphis. The Kings are the 7th highest scoring team in the NBA and are capable of scoring with anyone. The Clippers are 19th in scoring and the 20th ranked shooting team in the league. Scheduling favors the Kings here to get a solid home win. |
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12-04-21 | Youngstown State v. Green Bay UNDER 133.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #685/686 UNDER 133.5 Youngstown State at UW Green Bay, 7 PM ET - This is a great matchup of coaches who come from strong defensive backgrounds. Youngstown State’s head coach Jerrod Calhoun is a former Bob Huggins’ disciple, and Will Ryan is the son of legendary Bo Ryan. Will Ryan has also adopted his dad’s philosophy on offense, which is slow, deliberate and painstakingly slow. The Phoenix are 341st in pace of play this season after ranking 313th a year ago. UWGB had some turnover on their roster this season and are struggling to score with the 311th worst EFG% shooting team in college basketball. The Phoenix make just 27% of their 3-point attempts which is 328th in the nation. Youngstown was 228th in EFG% shooting a year ago, 296th in 3-point shooting at 30.9%. The Penguins also prefer to play at a slower tempo ranking 202nd in pace after finishing last year 212th. Two slower paced teams that can’t shoot make this an inviting UNDER wager. |
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12-03-21 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 217.5 | Top | 96-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These two teams just met on Tuesday with the Suns winning at home 104-96. That game stayed well below the total of 221 and we feel this game does too. Phoenix lost their best offensive player Devin Booker (23PPG, 4.5APG) early in that game and he’ll be out the entire game tonight with a pulled hamstring. These two teams feature two of the best overall defenses in the NBA as the Warriors rank 1st in defensive efficiency while the Suns are 2nd. Golden State has the #1 rated field goal percentage defense allowing just 42.3% on the season, the Suns are 6th allowing 43.4%. The last 8 times the Suns have been a road underdog the Under has cashed in 6 of those. The Warriors are on a 4-0 Under run and 9 of the last ten meetings has been an Under. |
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12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue -11.5 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11.5 over Iowa, Friday at 9 PM ET - This is a statement game for the Boilers. It’s their first Big 10 game of the season and a revenger at that after getting beat 70-55 @ Iowa in their only meeting last year. We have the Boilers currently rated as the #1 team in the nation right now. They are 6-0 on the season with an average winning margin of +28 points. That includes 3 top 40 teams as they’ve topped UNC, Villanova, and Florida State. At home they have won by the following margins - 28 (vs a very solid Florida State team), 57, 44, 25, and 29 points and all but one of those games was vs teams ranked inside the top 195. The Boilers rank #1 nationally in offensive efficiency, #2 in 3-point %, #2 in 2-point % and they make 76% of their FT’s. Iowa is 7-0 on the season but they’ve played just 1 team ranked inside the top 200 and that was a 1-point win vs Virginia who is solid but not great this season. Purdue has been home since November 21st while Iowa is playing their 2nd road game this week. We think the Hawks are overvalued right now. They are undefeated but lost 3 of their top 5 players from last year’s team including national player of the year Luka Garza. Purdue’s Mackey Arena has not been kind to the Hawkeyes as they’ve won just ONCE there since 2008 (1-11 SU record). The last 3 meetings Purdue has won by margins of 36, 16 and 22 points. Boilers roll to a big win here. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
#767/768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Portland State vs Idaho State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here makes for a low scoring game. Let’s start with Portland State. They had a few higher scoring games vs something called Evergreen State and George Fox which makes their overall season stats look much better than they are. Throw those 2 games out and they are averaging just 56 PPG vs Division 1 opponents. PSU ranks 356th in eFG%, 357th in 3 point making only 18% from beyond the arc, and they almost never get to the FT line (14% of their points on the season). There are 358 Division 1 teams which tells you how poor they’ve been offensively. Now we move to Idaho State. They are averaging 55 PPG vs their 5 Division 1 opponents they faced so far this season. The Bengals rank 297th in eFG% and 310th in 3 point %. And those numbers come vs a schedule in which 4 of the 5 teams they’ve faced rank below 200 in defensive efficiency. Portland State does like to play at a fast pace, however the host Idaho State is one of the slowest teams in the country ranking 333rd in tempo. It’s really tough to speed up a slow paced team and we expect Idaho State to get their preferred slow tempo here. The 2 Big Sky foes met twice last year and totaled 112 and 121 points. We like UNDER here. |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +2 over Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - We are betting value here with the Knicks as a home dog. These two teams met on Nov. 21st in Chicago and the Bulls were favored by -5.5-points and are now laying 2 on the road which doesn’t add up. New York was also just a +4-point dog at home against the Suns who have won 17 straight games. Chicago is off a home win, New York is off a road loss. We expect the revenge minded Knicks to get payback here. The Bulls have failed to cover here in 4 straight visits and are 3-7 ATS the last ten clashes. |
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12-01-21 | Kings v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30 PM ET - This will be a tough spot for the Kings. The Kings are playing their 5th game in 8 days, 3rd in 4 nights and 2nd of a B2B. When playing without rest this season the Kings are 1-2 SU/ATS. The Clippers are rested and coming off two straight home losses but one was to the red hot Warriors. On Monday the Clippers were embarrassed at home by the Pelicans. Pels center Valanciunas had a monster 39/15 game. LA is solid off a loss with a 23-19 ATS record, their last 42 in that role with a +6.2PPG differential. The biggest difference between these two teams is on the defensive end of the court where the Clippers rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Kings rank 26th. Also, the Kings are the 25th worst 3-pt shooting team in NBA, Clippers 12th best. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 13 meetings with the Kings. |
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12-01-21 | Louisville v. Michigan State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Louisville vs Michigan State, Wed at 7:15 PM ET - We have 2 of the best performing defenses in college basketball facing off in this game and we expect this one to stay under the total. MSU ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Louisville ranks 18th. Sparty has stayed under this number of 135 in 4 of their last 5 games. Their only game during that stretch that went over this number was vs Eastern Michigan who plays at a very fast pace and has a defense ranked 254th in efficiency. The only 2 teams this year to top 70 points vs MSU’s defense were Kansas & Baylor who rank 5th and 6th nationally in offensive efficiency. The offense they are facing tonight, Louisville, ranks 93rd in offensive efficiency. The Cards have allowed more than 67 points just once this season and in their 2 most recent games vs Maryland (60th in offensive efficiency) and Mississippi State (49th in offensive efficiency) this defense allowed just 55 and 58 points. Both teams struggle to shoot the 3 well both ranking below 210th and both defend the arc with neither allowing 30%. We don’t expect many points from deep tonight. Both are inside the top 23 in eFG% defense while each offense ranks outside the top 160 in that category. Each of these defenses makes it very tough to get shots allowing a shot attempt every 18+ seconds which ranks them both outside the top 300 in defensive pace. MSU & Louisville have combined to play 13 games this year with only 4 going over the total. Another lower scoring game here that we project to land in the high 120’s. |
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11-30-21 | Pistons +9 v. Blazers | Top | 92-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Blazers are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Utah and playing their 5th game in seven days. Detroit was off on Monday after playing the L.A. on Sunday. The Pistons have been competitive in their two most recent road games losing by 4-points to the Lakers and 11 to the Clippers. If we look at the Blazers last four home games, all wins, but they took advantage of the Nuggets and 76ers with injuries and barely beat the Bulls and Raptors by 5-points each. Detroit is on a 4-1 ATS streak and continues to be undervalued by the oddmakers. Portland is 2-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -1.3PPG. Grab the points. |
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11-29-21 | Pacers v. Wolves UNDER 217.5 | Top | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Pacers are unrested here after a game on Sunday against the Bucks. That factors in here as the Pacers are 4-0 Under their last four when playing without rest. In those four games played without rest the Pacers games averaged 200-total points per contest. Indiana ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and give up 106PPG. Minnesota has been a big surprise this season and a lot of their success is a result of their defensive intensity. Minnesota is 11th in DEFF this season which is significantly higher than the 27th ranked unit they featured a year ago. In 7 of their last ten games they have held opponents to 101 or less points. The Wolves are 26th in team field goal percentage and the Pacers are 20th in 3-point percentage. Indiana is 8-1 Under their last nine away from home. Wolves Under in 9 of their last 12 home games. BET UNDER. |
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11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia +1.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia +1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - We understand Iowa is looking great early in the season with a 6-0 record. They’ve played all of those games at home and haven’t faced a single team ranked inside the top 200. The best defense they’ve faced was ranked 168th in efficiency and 5 of the 6 defenses they’ve faced rank 200 or lower. Tonight comes a whole different animal. Iowa is on the road for the first time and facing one of the top defenses in the country. UVA ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and they are playing better than that ranking right now. After a rare rough start to the season on the defensive end, they have held their last 4 opponents to 0.70, 0.71, 0.84, and 0.85 points per possession. That includes games vs Power 5 opponents Providence and Georgia. We’re not sure what to make of Iowa quite yet. We feel they are overvalued right now for sure. The Hawkeyes lost 3 of their top players from last year’s team including Luka Garza who was national player of the year. Our ratings have UVA as the favorite here. The Cavs have only been a home dog FOUR times since the start of the 2011 season (vs UNC (twice), Duke, and FSU). They are 4-0 ATS in those games and they are 59-7 SU at home their last 66. We like the value here with Virginia as a home dog. |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. Utah UNDER 139 | Top | 75-64 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139 Points – BYU vs Utah, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET - Two rivals going at it tonight and we expect a lower scoring affair. Both defenses have been stellar this year with BYU ranking 8th in eFG% defense and Utah ranking 10th in the same category. Neither team ranks inside the top 130 in eFG% offense despite playing a fairly easy slate of defenses this season. Utah has played one of the weaker schedules in the country thus far and they have not faced a defense ranked in the top 100 in efficiency. Despite playing a weak slate of defenses, Utah games have averaged 134 total points this season. BYU has played 2 top 100 defenses this season (San Diego St & Oregon) and those games have totaled 126 & 130 points. If we throw out their game vs Central Methodist (non Division 1) the Cougar games are averaging 132 total points. Neither team shoot the 3 pointer very well and both defend the arc at a high level (BYU #1 nationally defending the 3 and Utah 30th) so we don’t expect many points from deep. Our power ratings have this game finishing in the mid 130’s so some value on the Under in this one. |
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11-27-21 | Heat v. Bulls UNDER 212 | Top | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212 Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We have a match up of two teams that both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency (Heat 4th, Bulls 10th) and points allowed per game as the Heat give up 102.4PPG, Bulls 104.6PPG. The pace of this game shouldn’t be fast as the Bulls are average in possession per game while the Heat are 27th and one of the slowest in the NBA. Chicago played a game last night against the Magic and allowed 88-points. When playing without rest the Bulls have averaged only 196 total points. The Heat have 1 day rest and playing in that scenario they average 206.4PPG. Last season when NBA games averaged 224 total points these two teams played in three low scoring affairs with totals of 212, 207 and 191. With NBA scoring down this season to 214 we expect even less scoring in this game. The bet here is UNDER. |
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11-26-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors who are coming off a solid road win, while the Pacers are off a disappointing OT home loss to the Lakers. This will be the Raptors 6th straight road game and they are just 2-4 SU in those recent away games. Indiana is 4-1 SU their last five home games and also 3-1 ATS this season at home when off a loss. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Raptors winning both meetings so we expect the revenge minded Pacers to get a solid home win here. |
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11-26-21 | Alabama -6.5 v. Drake | Top | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -6.5 over Drake, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We like the value with Bama here coming off their first loss of the season yesterday. We have the Tide as a 9 point favorite and the line is sitting at -6. Alabama has top 10 talent and they’ve proven that this year with blowout wins over solid competition. Prior to losing 72-68 vs Iona yesterday, the Crimson Tide had faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 135 this season and destroyed all of them. They beat La Tech (2nd highest rated team in Conference USA / 24-8 record last year) by 29, topped Oakland (highest rated team in the Horizon) by 27, and beat South Dakota State (by far the highest rated team in the Summit) by 16. Yesterday they ran into a senior dominated Iona team that had their eyes set on this game after losing to Alabama in the first round of the NCAA tourney last season. Bama led for most of the game but a late run by Iona got the tight win. We respect Drake as one of the top mid majors this season but they’ve struggled with the 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced this year losing yesterday to Belmont and struggling to beat Richmond at home by 3. The Bulldogs have relied heavily on the 3 point shot this season (37% of their points / 71st nationally) but today the face one of the best teams in the nation at defending the arc. The Tide currently rank 13th in the nation allowing just 23% from deep and it’s no fluke as they ranked 10th in the country in the same category last year. Drake is coming off a great season in 2020, however they didn’t face a single top 100 team in the non-conference last year and the best team in their league, Loyola Chicago, beat them in 2 of their 3 match ups last year. Both Loyola wins were by double digits and Drake’s lone win vs the Ramblers was by 1 point. Drake runs into a buzzsaw here vs one of the more talented teams in the country. Lay it with Alabama. |
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11-24-21 | Heat v. Wolves UNDER 212.5 | Top | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212.5 Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - Look out NBA, here come the Minnesota Timberwolves! The Wolves are playing well right now with 4 straight wins and 5 in their last six games. That streak has been fueled by a stingy defense allowing less than 100-points in 5 straight games and 6 of their last seven. Minnesota catches the Heat coming off a game last night in Detroit so fatigue becomes an issue on the offensive end of the court for Miami. The Heat have totaled less than 212 total points in 4 straight games and are once again one of the best defensive teams in the league. Miami has allowed less than 105 points in 6 straight games and have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Minnesota is 9th in DEFF for the season which is a DRAMATIC improvement over last year’s numbers and they have the best DEFF in the NBA over the last 5 games. Miami is the slowest paced team in the NBA over their last five games while Minnesota is 14th slowest. This shapes up to be a defensive battle with a very low total. BET UNDER. |
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11-24-21 | VCU v. Syracuse UNDER 130.5 | Top | 67-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
#747/748 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130 Points – Syracuse vs VCU, Wednesday at 5 PM ET - Syracuse is coming off a high scoring game vs Colgate which pushed this total quite a bit higher than it should be by our projections. It has dropped a few points since but we still like the Under in this game. Colgate was a very good shooting team that likes to play at a high tempo. They made 18 three pointers in their big win over Syracuse. By comparison, VCU had made 15 three pointers the entire season in 4 games. The Rams are a poor shooting team (286th eFG%), that doesn’t make FT’s (61%) and plays slow. On the other end of the court VCU has been outstanding. They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and they’ve allowed their first 4 opponents an average of 51 PPG with none topping 58. Syracuse has solid offensive numbers but they’ve played 3 defenses that rank 192nd or lower in efficiency. 2 of the 3 teams they’ve faced also like to play up tempo and that won’t be the case in this one. To beat the Syracuse zone you need to make some 3’s and VCU just isn’t equipped to do that (313th in 3-point %). They love to play inside the paint. The Cuse is a solid 3-point shooting team thus far but they are now facing a VCU defense that allows just 21% from beyond the arc (6th nationally). It’s tough to get shots against both of these defenses which is why they ranked 350th and 355th in defensive pace. Our projections have this landing in the mid to upper 120’s so we’ll take the UNDER. |
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11-23-21 | Lakers v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 over LA Lakers, 7:35 PM ET - The Lakers will be without LeBron James in this game after he was ejected in the last game against the Pistons. The altercation was the main story from the other night but from our standpoint the issue was the Lakers were trailing the 4-12 Pistons by 15-points entering the 4th quarter. Prior to their win over the Pistons the Lakers had lost 4 straight road games by an average of 13PPG. LA was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA a season ago, but now rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Lakers offense has been even worse ranking 24th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks are coming off a disappointing road loss in Chicago in which they led big before late game collapse and a 6-point loss. The Knicks are 11th in offensive efficiency and 17th in DEFF but both of those rankings are better than the Lakers. The Knicks have covered 4 straight at home against LA and are on a 3-0 SU streak when home coming off a loss. |
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11-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -7.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - Houston was a Final 4 team a year ago and they return 4 of their top 7 players. They also have added 2 key transfers that play significant minutes including an All Conference caliber player from Texas Tech (Kyler Edwards). They dominated Butler from start to finish yesterday on their way to an 18 point win. Their game prior to that they crushed Virginia by 20 points – game was played last week. The Cougs are a veteran team with all juniors and seniors in the starting line up. Wisconsin is very young this year after losing 4 of 5 starters from a year ago. The Badgers got behind by 16 points yesterday vs Texas A&M and made a massive comeback to pick up an easy win. A&M wanted to run and they got this young Wisconsin team to play their pace early on before HC Gard made some adjustments to slow the game down. The Aggies offense does not excel in the half court and that allowed Wisconsin to make their comeback. Today they face a very physical, mature team that also likes to play a slow tempo. UW is not a great shooting team this year (284th in eFG%) and they are facing a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency after ranking 9th a year ago. The Cougars, on the other hand, are a much better shooting team ranking 10% better eFG% and 10% better from 3-point land when compared to Wisconsin. This is a very tough match up for a UW team that is still learning the ropes. Take Houston. |
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11-22-21 | Providence +1.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +1.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - The wrong team is favored in this one. Our power ratings have Providence as a 3 point favorite on a neutral court. NW is 4-0 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in college basketball thus far. The Cats have played all home games and haven’t faced a team ranked inside the top 260 and 3 of their 4 opponents were ranked outside the top 315. Providence is also 4-0 but 3 of their 4 opponents are ranked higher than anyone NW has played this season. The Friars went to Wisconsin and won which is never easy to do. The led the Badgers for most of the game and the final score of 63-58 was closer than the game really was as Providence led by 13 with 6:00 remaining. The Friars are a veteran team with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up. They are a very good interior offense (61% from inside the arc – 11th best nationally) with big man Nate Watson leading the way. He’s averaging 21 PPG and has made a remarkable 74% of his shots inside the arc (34 of 46). We don’t think NW has anyone that can guard him. Because Providence is more of an interior team, they get to the FT line a lot already getting to the stripe 52 more times than their opponents this season. With a solid defense on top of that (79th in defensive efficiency) this is a team that should play very well on the road this year as they don’t rely on 3-pointers. NW leaving their campus for the first time (game is in Newark NJ) playing a team that is far superior to anyone they’ve played will be a problem for the Cats tonight. Providence is the play here. |
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11-22-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Bulls as they are off a 5 game West coast road trip, then hosted the Knicks on Sunday night and now must face a rested Pacers team. Indiana is just 2-9 SU on the road this season, but they’ve been in tight games recently and have an average loss margin of -3.6PPG. Chicago is 5-2 SU at home this year with a +/- of 8.8PPG but this isn’t sustainable. The Bulls are better this season, but they were 15-20 SU at home last year with an average Margin of Victory of -1.7PPG. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings and catch the Bulls in a bad spot. Grab the points. |
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