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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-01-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 236.5 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 236.5 San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - The Spurs are coming off a game last night in which they allowed 137 points to the Hawks but scored 135 themselves. When playing without rest this season the Spurs have allowed 120 and 152 points. The Spurs allow 1.193 points per possession which ranks 26th in the league. They give up 123.4PPG which is the 3rd most. We know there will be plenty of possessions in this contest as the Spurs are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.1 possessions per game. New Orleans also prefers to play up-tempo with the 8th fastest paced number in the NBA. The Pelicans are at full strength here with the return of CJ McCollum and are coming off a 124-point outing against the 76ers. New Orleans should have an easy time scoring here against this Spurs defense that ranks 27th or worse in: FG% defense, field goals made per game, field goals attempted and 3PT% against. With the Pels having a high probability of scoring 125 or more points we like this game to go Over the total. |
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11-30-23 | Hawks -7.5 v. Spurs | Top | 137-135 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -7.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off two straight losses to the Celtics and Cavaliers and now step down in talent to face the Spurs. This game becomes much more important for the Hawks off those two losses with a road date against the Bucks looming. As far as the Spurs are concerned, they have lost 12 straight games and even Wemby can’t save this team this season. Maybe politics and other concerns have damped Coach Popovich’s competitive drive? No matter what the issues are, we do know this. The Spurs own the 3rd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -12.4PPG. At home they are losing by an average of -8.3PPG. They rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 19th in DEFF. In comparison, the Hawks allow 1.238 points per possession (27th) but they beat teams offensively by averaging 1.246PPP which is 3rd best in the NBA. In six of their last seven home games the Spurs have lost by 7 or more points. Atlanta recently beat the Wizards on the road by 28-points as a 9.5 point favorite. The Wiz and Spurs are similar teams and we expect another double digit win by the visitor in this one. |
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11-30-23 | UL - Lafayette +4.5 v. Samford | Top | 65-88 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
#747 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana +4.5 over Samford, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We have this game power rated dead even @ Samford so we’ll take the points. Louisiana is the better team and they’ve played the tougher schedule so far. The Rajin Cajuns are 5-2 with their 2 setbacks coming vs teams both rated higher than this Samford squad. ULL lost @ Toledo, the highest rated team in the MAC, by 9 points but Louisiana led that game by 16 midway through the 2nd half. Louisiana gathered only 3 points from the FT line in that game while Toledo scored 20 from the stripe which was obviously the difference. The Cajuns shot better from inside and outside the arc in that game but were done in by 10 more personal fouls. Their other loss was vs Wright State by 6 and the Raiders shot lights out in that game hitting 56% from the field. They’ve since won 3 in a row and are taking on a Samford team that has played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far. The Bulldogs were rolled in their first 2 games vs Purdue (lost by 53) and VCU (lost by 10) and they’ve since won 5 straight games all vs teams ranked 293 or lower per KenPom. Samford has played the 346th easiest schedule and yet they have the same points per possession differential as Louisiana who has played the much tougher slate. Despite playing the tougher schedule the Cajuns are the much better shooting team (49th overall shooting % and 11th three point %) and they’ve mad 78% of their FT’s. Samford’s defense ranks 250th defending the arc and they foul a lot (23% of opponents points from the stripe) which doesn’t match up well with ULL. On the other end of the court Samford relies heavily on the 3 point shot but will be facing a Louisiana team that has allowed just 25% from deep (15th best nationally). We give Louisiana a great shot to win this game outright but if not, at worst it should go to the wire so we’ll grab the points. |
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11-29-23 | 76ers v. Pelicans OVER 227.5 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 227.8 total points being scored. We don’t expect this game to be ‘average’. The host Pelicans like to play at a faster rate as they rank 8th in possessions per game. Philadelphia slightly lower than league average at 98.8 possessions per game. Philly scores their points by being highly efficient on the offensive end of the court averaging 1.202 points per possession which is 3rd in the NBA. The Pels aren’t as efficient but still manage 112.9PPG. We are seeing New Orleans trend in the positive direction offensively with an efficiency rating of 1.168PPP which ranks 12th best over the last 5 games. Defensively these two teams rank 12th and 13th in points allowed per possession. The Sixers average 17.5 fast break points per game, the Pelicans average 14.8 which is 11th best in the league. Both teams also feast in the paint ranking 9th and 11th in points in the lane. Last season in the two meetings these two combined for 231 and 243 total points. It all adds up to a higher scoring game between these two teams. |
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11-29-23 | Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
#677 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tennessee +2.5 over North Carolina, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good Tennessee team coming off back to back losses in Hawaii one week ago. Those losses were to Purdue (by 4) and Kansas (by 8) who are 2 of the top 3 teams in the nation in KenPom’s power ratings. The Vols have also already faced Syracuse (in Hawaii) and played @ Wisconsin (both double digit wins) in what has been a very tough schedule thus far. On the other side, UNC has played only 1 team ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 teams and that was a loss to Villanova. It’s also very possible the Heels will be without one of their top offensive players, Cormac Ryan (11 PPG), as he injured his ankle late last week in a game and hadn’t practiced at all as of Monday night. Missing his offense will be tough vs a Tennessee team that ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency (#1 last year as well) limiting teams to just 0.87 points per possession. The Vols had their chances against both Kansas and Purdue. The led in the 2nd half of both of those games but scored only 5 points in the final 6 minutes vs Kansas and had a shot to win in the final minute vs the Boilers. Now we’re getting a rested (off for a week) veteran team (all upperclassmen in rotation) off 2 straight losses. They will play with some urgency here and our power ratings have Tennessee as the better team and they are getting points. UNC’s 3 home games this year have been vs teams outside the top 150 and the Heels lost 3 home games a year ago. Last time the Vols paid a visit to the Dean Smith Dome in November 2021, they walked away with a 17 point win as an underdog. We don’t look for a blowout by either team here but we like the Vols to pull the minor upset. |
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11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -2 | Top | 123-124 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -2 vs Golden State Warriors – 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors typically get everyone’s best shot on a nightly basis with their lofty reputation. The Kings are no exception here and even have a little more to play for after the Warriors knocked them out of the Playoffs last season and beat them twice this year. On Oct 27th the Warriors went to Sacramento and won 122-114 as a 3-point dog. Then on Nov 1st the Warriors won at home 102-101 but the Kings were without All-Star point guard DeAaron Fox. Fox is averaging just under 30PPG and 6APG and is clearly one of the Kings two best players along with Sabonis. Golden State is just 3-8 SU their last eleven games and two of those wins came against the struggling Spurs and Pistons. Sacramento is 7-2 SU their last nine games and coming off a big road win over the Timberwolves. The Kings are a respectable 29-21 SU at home since the start of last season with an average +/- of +2.7PPG. Golden State is 17-38 SU away since the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. We like the Kings to get a measure of revenge in this one. |
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11-28-23 | LSU v. Syracuse -110 | Top | 57-80 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Syracuse pick-em over LSU, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with LSU as a slight favorite and has moved to a pick-em as of this writing on Monday evening. We agree with the move. We actually have the Orange favored by 3 with our power ratings so still some solid value. This is LSU’s first true road game of the season and they’ve been poor in that spot to say the least. Last year they were 0-9 SU in true road games and dating back to the start of the 2021 season they are 2-17 SU in road games. The JMA Wireless Dome (we still call it the Carrier Dome) can be a tough place to shoot for opposing teams. The Tigers had a losing record a year ago at 14-19 and they were a poor shooting team a year ago making only 41% of their shots (337th nationally). While they’ve shot the ball better early this season, they need to prove they can do it on the road in a tough environment. The Tigers have a number of transfers (4 new starters) trying to mesh early in the season but their #1 transfer, Jalen Cook, has been ruled ineligible this season and won’t play. LSU has had a problem with turnovers coughing it up on 19% of their possession despite playing only 1 team ranked inside the top 200 in defensive turnover percentage. Here they face a Cuse team that has been great at forcing turnovers almost 22% of the time (top 40 nationally). Syracuse is 4-2 on the season and their 2 losses came vs top 10 teams (Tennessee & Gonzaga) in Hawaii. They are undefeated in their 3 homes games and averaging 84 PPG. The Cuse has been back from Hawaii for 6 days with a chance to regroup and refresh. LSU just 7-18 ATS their last 25 games and this will be a tough spot for them as they try to adapt to their new line up. Take Syracuse. |
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11-27-23 | Northern Illinois +13.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 67-89 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Illinois +13.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern was overvalued coming into the season which has shown through in their ATS record which is 1-4. On the other end, Northern Illinois is undervalued with a perfect 5-0 ATS record (5-1 SU). The Huskies have played a fairly tough schedule (79th) and their only loss came in the season opener @ Marquette who is a top 10 team. Northwestern has a 4-1 SU record and none of their wins have come by this current spread of 13 despite playing a number of teams ranked much lower than NIU. The Cats are also coming off a 9 day layoff which we don’t think is ideal and they have bigger fish to fry as they host Purdue on Friday. NIU has shown an ability to shoot the ball well thus far ranking in the top 80 in both eFG% and 3 point %. This team should be able to hit some 3’s here facing a NW defense that is allowing opponents to hit almost 39% from deep this season (323rd defensively). The Huskies also get to the FT line a lot (25% of their points have come from the stripe) and if they can do that along with winning the 3 point line this game should be fairly close. NW is not a good shooting team thus far especially from beyond the arc where they’ve made only 29%. Last year Northwestern won this game at home by 17 points and this year they are facing an NIU team that is rated 100 spots higher, per KenPom, than last year’s team. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are currently 20+ spots lower right now compared to where they ended last season. This is a big game for NIU playing an instate big boy while NW just wants to get out of this one with a win and get ready to host the #1 team in the country on Friday. Take the points. |
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11-27-23 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 236 | Top | 126-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 236 Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - Tonight, the Wiz face a Detroit team that is 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.178 points per possession on the season and allow opponents to shoot 50.3% on the season which is 30th or last in the league. Washington is last in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.210PPP and give up over 125PPG. Washington is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA with 103.3 possessions per game. Detroit is 13th in pace of play and prefers an up-tempo approach. The Wizards have allowed 130 or more points in 4 of their last six games. Detroit has given up 119 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. Washington should have a solid shooting night with the 7th best FG% shooting team in the NBA going up against the 17th ranked FG% Pistons defense. Everyone shoots well against Washington as we mentioned, and both score well in transition with the Pistons ranking 2nd and the Wiz 8th in fast break efficiency. It’s a big number but we like Over. |
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11-26-23 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - The Nuggets are coming off a 1-4 five game road stretch and are playing with only 1 day rest. On the season the Nuggets average 1.171 points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA but in their last five games they are averaging 1.163PPP. The decline in scoring of course has a lot to do with the injury to All-Star PG Murray and his 16.3PPG missing from the lineup. Denver allows just 107.6PPG at home this season which is the 4th best number in the NBA. In comparison, the Spurs are averaging only 106.4PPG on the road which is 17th. On the season the Spurs rank 2nd to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.066PPP while shooting just 45.5% (24th). The young Spurs typically want to play fast but the home team Nuggets will dictate tempo and they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league. Denver is on a 6-2 Under run, the Spurs have stayed Under in 3 straight. Bet UNDER! |
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11-26-23 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
#743 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Texas A&M pick-em to +1.5 over Iowa State, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Florida. Both teams coming off losses on Friday with A&M losing by 7 vs FAU (37th rated team per KenPom) and Iowa State losing by 9 vs Virginia Tech (49th rated team per KenPom). The Aggies loss vs a very good Florida Atlantic team came down to the Owls shooting lights out from deep (16 of 30 from 3) and making 20 FT’s compared to 15 for A&M. Thus FAU outscored the Aggies by 23 points from beyond the arc + FT line and only won by 7. We look for this veteran team to bounce back tonight. The Aggies were 25-10 last year and they return 4 starters along with 81% of their minutes from that team. That includes PG Taylor who is one of the top players in the country. They are 5-1 SU on the season and have played a tough schedule already with 4 of their 6 opponents sitting inside the top 100. Iowa State is also 5-1 but they’ve played one of the weakest slates in the country with 2 top 100 teams and the other 4 ranking outside the top 260 including 3 outside the top 300. The Cyclones defensive numbers are great so far this season but let’s put that into perspective. They’ve played only 1 offense this year ranked in the top 100 and lost (vs Va Tech) and 4 of their other opponents are currently ranked 277 or lower in offensive efficiency with 3 outside the top 325. Now they face an A&M offense ranked 5th nationally in offensive efficiency. ISU thrives on creating turnovers to open up offensive opportunities but the Aggies have a veteran backcourt the rarely turns the ball over (13% TO rate – 19th best in the country) so we don’t think the Cyclones will be able to take advantage of that as they have vs lesser opponents this season. Because they are aggressive defensively, ISU fouls a lot and A&M makes their FT’s (76%) at a high rate. On the other end the Cyclones make only 68% of their freebies. A&M has been a covering machine with an ATS record of 50-30 their last 80 games. Our power ratings have A&M favored by 3 here and we’re getting them at dead even. Take Texas A&M here. |
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11-25-23 | Heat v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -3.5 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - This is an ideal situation to back the Nets at home who are rested, playing an unrested Heat team AND playing with revenge from a loss to the Heat just over a week ago. Miami played last night in New York and tonight’s game will be their 4th in six days, 3rd in four days. Brooklyn has been off since the 22nd and will be well rested heading into this game. On Nov 16th the Nets lost in Miami 115-122 as a +3.5-point underdog. The game was relatively even statistically, but the Heat shot it slightly better overall and from beyond the arc. The Nets are 3-1 SU their last four at home with their most recent home game being a blowout loss to the 76ers. Miami is 6-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season when playing on the second night of a back to back. Brooklyn is 11-7-1 ATS in that same time frame when playing with 2-3 days rest. Miami is 28-37-3 when coming off a win since the start of last season. Brooklyn had beaten the Heat 6 straight times prior to the recent loss and we are betting they get back on the winning track here. |
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11-24-23 | Kings v. Wolves -4 | Top | 124-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #566 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is a big game for the In Season Tournament as both teams are 2-0 in pool play and the winner of this game essentially locks up the In Season bid. Minnesota was just a -7-point favorite at home against the 76ers and are now laying just -4 against the Kings? These teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings with the Kings averaging 1.137-points per possession while the Wolves average 1.135PPP. Minnesota owns the 6th best FG% number in the league at 48.9%. Sacramento doesn’t shoot it overly well at 46.2% (22nd) but they make 3-pointers at a 14.6 per game clip which is 5th most. The difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end of the court. The Wolves are 1st in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.062PPP compared to the Kings who rank 16th in the NBA allowing 1.144PPP. Minnesota is one of the best teams in the league defending the 3-point line holding opponents to 32.4% shooting (2nd). Sacramento allows opponents to hit 48.9% of their field goal attempts which is 23rd in the league. Minnesota has won 3 of the last four meetings with the Kings getting one win in OT last year. Minnesota has the 2nd best average home differential in the league at +17.3PPG. The Kings have a negative road differential of minus -3.2PPG. Back the home team here by more than 4-points. |
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11-22-23 | Bucks v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #536 Boston Celtics -5.5 or -6 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This is the biggest game on the schedule tonight and we are backing the Celtics at home minus the points. The Celtics are coming off a loss and back at home where they haven’t lost this season. Boston has an average +/- of +22.4PPG at home this season and it’s come against quality opponents including the Heat, Pacers, Nets, Raptors and Knicks. We realize the Celtics can’t continue that torrid point differential at home, but we won’t be surprised if that average is double digits by seasons end. Last season the C’s average +/- at home was +8.8PPG. Last season the Celtics beat the Bucks badly in two of the three meetings with a pair of 41-point wins. Milwaukee is still going through an adjustment period with a new coach and Damian Lillard. The Bucks are 10-4 SU but it’s come against a very soft schedule (25th). These two teams are similar offensively with the Buck ranking 7th in offensive efficiency, the Celtics are 3rd. Defensively it’s not close as the C’s are 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency the Bucks are 25th. With Milwaukee still going through a transition period we like Boston to get a dominating win at home tonight. |
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11-22-23 | East Tennessee State v. Cleveland State -7.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#690 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland State -7.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for the host CSU. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Eastern Michigan as a 7 point favorite. They should be extra motivated after that loss. They are facing an ETSU team that is off an upset win at home over Davidson (70-68 as a 6.5 point dog) which makes this a perfect set up for the home team. ETSU battled back from a 10 point deficit in that game to win by 2 points. The Bucs are 2-2 on the season but they’ve lost both of their road games @ Elon (ETSU was a favorite) and then getting smoked at Butler. This is an ESTU team that had a 12-20 record last season and is learning the ropes under a new head coach Brooks Savage who has never been a head coach and came over from Wake Forest where he was an assistant. Four of their five starters are transfers and they only return 34% of their minutes for last season. Cleveland State finished 21-14 last season and they are one of the favorites in the Horizon this season. We currently have them power rated as the 2nd best team in the league behind only Wright State. They return 3 starters and almost 60% of their minutes from last year. CSU’s 2 losses have come on the road and they are 3-0 at home and they’ve won 30 of their last 35 games at home. The Vikings have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they finished 2nd in the Horizon last year with a 14-6 SU record. CSU is a solid program with a record of 55-33 last 3+ seasons and we’re getting them at home off a loss. We expect a double digit win for the Vikings on Wednesday. |
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11-21-23 | Pacers v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 157-152 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: #522 Atlanta Hawks -3.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game for the East Group A pool in the In-Season Tournament as the Pacers are 2-0 and leading the group with the Hawks in the 4th spot at 1-1. Atlanta is on the outside looking in but still have an opportunity to get into the mid-season finals if they beat the Pacers here and get a win over Cleveland. The Hawks are 2-3 SU their last five games and have currently lost three straight home games but we like them to get back on track here. Not to mention, the three recent home losses came to the 76ers, Knicks and Heat. The young Pacers have only played 4 road games this season with a 2-2 SU record. Comparing these two teams when it comes to efficiency ratings we find the Pacers hold a slight edge offensively ranking 1st while the Hawks are 5th. Defensively the Pacers are the 27th worst in DEFF with the Hawks ranking 22nd. Atlanta has the 9th best net differential when you factor in their strength of schedule while the Pacers are 19th. Atlanta has won 6 of the last seven meetings with five of those coming by 3 or more points. This line isn’t what it should be as our power ratings have the Hawks favored by nearly 6-points. |
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11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Detroit -2.5 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit -2.5 over Eastern Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Detroit will finally be playing their first home game after starting the season with 4 tough road tilts. The Titans are 0-4 which is giving us some value here as we’re laying -2.5 and our power ratings have Detroit closer to -5. They are also catching EMU off an upset home win over Cleveland State as 7 point underdogs which is also pushing this number lower than it should be. Detroit has played all top 125 teams and those 4 teams have a combined record of 13-1. Now they get to play a home game vs an EMU team ranked outside the top 300 so big drop off in competition. We’ll be honest the numbers on both ends of the court for both teams are not good but Detroit has played the tougher schedule. The only unit on the court that ranks inside the top 300 in efficiency is Detroit’s offense which ranks 252nd. Eastern is 2-2 on the season but those 2 wins came at home. They’ve played 2 road games this year and lost those by 43 & 39 points! Speaking of road games, the Eagles have been absolutely brutal long term away from home winning only 6 of their last 54 road games! With this number set very low, the almost need to win this game outright to cover and we just don’t see it. Detroit, on the other hand, has been very solid at home with an 18-6 SU record since the start of the 2022 season. This is a revenger for Detroit as well as they lost by 2 points @ EMU last year. The Titans were favored on the road by 4.5 points in that one and now they are laying a full bucket less at home just 1 year later. Again, nice value here with the home team and we’ll lay it. |
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11-20-23 | UCLA v. Marquette -5.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -5.5 over UCLA, Monday at 11:30 PM ET – Game in Hawaii - This is the last game of the Maui Invitational on Monday night. This is rough early season opponent for this inexperienced UCLA team. The Bruins have 1 starter back from last year’s team, lost nearly 90% of the scoring, and return only 18% of their total minutes from a year ago. Their starting backcourt is really raw with sophomore McClendon, who averaged 9 minutes per game last year, and freshman Mack. They’ve be facing off vs one of the top guard duos in the country. Marquette’s Kolek was Big East player of the year last season and Jones is one of the top off guards in the nation. Huge advantage to the Golden Eagles. As a whole, unlike UCLA, Marquette brings back nearly everyone from a team that finished 29-7 last year and won the Big East regular season and post season crown. They return 4 starters and 85% of their minutes. They’ve already faced the much tougher schedule with each of Marquette’s opponents ranking higher in Ken Pom than any of UCLA’s foes. The Eagles also have a played a high level opponent on the road this year as they beat Illinois 71-64 leading nearly the entire way. UCLA has played 3 home games vs teams all ranked 329th or lower. Despite playing 3 terrible opponents, the Bruins only hit 24% of their 3 pointers in those 3 games and their young starting backcourt is just 2 for 9 from deep this season. This veteran Marquette team has been more than comfortable away from home (road or neutral) with a 14-6 SU record (14-5-1 ATS) since the start of last season. We like the Golden Eagles to roll to an easy win on Monday night. |
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11-20-23 | Knicks v. Wolves -130 | Top | 100-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #508 Minnesota Timberwolves -2 or -130 money line vs NY Knicks – 8:10 PM ET - If you haven’t noticed, the Timberwolves are playing at an extremely high level and are considered one of the best teams in the Western Conference. Minnesota has won 8 of their last nine games and are 9-3 on the season. The Wolves have done it against a very formidable schedule with recent wins against the Nuggets, Celtics, Warriors and Pelicans. The Wolves are 5-0 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +18.2PPG. The Knicks have won 6 of their last seven games but the wins have come against some of the league’s worst teams including the Spurs, Hornets, Wizards. Typically, New York would ‘out-defense’ you here, but the fact of the matter is the Wolves are better defensively owning the #1 efficiency rating in the NBA. When it comes to offense these teams are near even in efficiency ratings, but again, the Knicks have faced an easier schedule. Back the home team here. |
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11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4 | Top | 128-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic – 5:10 PM ET - These two teams have been big surprises in the Eastern Conference this season and both of their young rosters have played exceptionally well. Orlando comes into this game with a 7-5 SU record, Indiana is 7-4 SU. These teams play two entirely different styles of play as the Pacers try to outscore you whereas the Magic focus their energy on the defensive end of the court. Indiana is averaging a league best 1.223-points per possession and score 126.5PPG. Orlando has the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league and allow 106.6PPG. We are betting the Pacers outscore the Magic here. Indiana is second in pace of play and the young Magic rank 15th meaning they can and will get sucked into playing an uptempo game today. Despite playing fast in high possession games, the Pacers don’t turn the ball over with the 3rd fewest TO’s in the league. Orlando on the other hand averages the 3rd most TO’s on the season at 16.3 per game. Pacer PG Tyrese Haliburton is playing at an All-Star level averaging 24.7PPG, 12.5 APG points per game, and his 12.5 assists per leads the NBA. We are not as impressed with the Magics recent two road wins over a Bulls team that is on the trade market. Indiana on the other hand has won 4 of their last five games including wins over the 76ers and Bucks in that stretch. They also own a pair of wins over a Cavs team this season that plays a similar style to the Magic. Orlando has a negative differential on the road this season of -5PPG, Indiana at home has a +11.3PPG differential which is 5th best in the NBA. Let’s lay the points. |
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11-17-23 | San Diego State v. St. Mary's +1 | Top | 79-54 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
#878 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s pick-em over San Diego State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - We’re getting a very good St Mary’s team off a loss blowing a 16 point 2nd half lead in a 61-57 loss vs Weber State. It was a rare poor shooting game for STM as they made only 40% of their shots overall and just 18% from beyond the arc. We feel it’s an anomaly that St Mary’s is hitting only 25% of their 3’s this season after making over 36% a year ago. They return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes (most in the West Coast Conference) from a team that was 27-8 last season. Not only that, the Gaels beat San Diego State last year 68-61 last season on a neutral court and that was an Aztec team that went to the National Championship game. We expect a regression this season from a SDSU team that must replace 2 starts and half of their minutes from last year’s team. St Mary’s has been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation for years now and they will turn this game into a “crawl” which is not how San Diego State likes to play. Gaels HC Randy Bennett is fantastic at getting his team to bounce back after a loss as they are 13-1 ATS in that spot. At a pick-em type game we feel we’re getting the better overall team in the better situation. Take St Mary’s on Friday Night. |
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11-17-23 | Kings -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7:30 PM ET - The Victor Webanyama hype is starting to die down and it’s becoming very clear just how far the Spurs have to go to be relevant again. San Antonio has lost 6 straight by an average of 19.5PPG, albeit two of those losses were by 36 and 41-points. But that’s also an indicator of just how bad this team can be at times. Sacramento is playing like the team that won 48 regular season games a year ago with 4 straight W’s. The last two victories were impressive with a 15-point win against the Lakers and a 12-point win over the Cavs. The Kings were the #1 most efficient offense in the NBA a year ago and averaged 120.8PPG. They’ve gotten off to a slow start this season but have a great opportunity to get right here against a Spurs defense that is 28th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.197-points per possession. Sacramento has not shot the 3-ball well at 33.9% but the Spurs allow opponents to hit over 40% of their 3-point attempts. San Antonio is also 28th in the league in offensive efficiency scoring just 1.068PPP. This is one of the In Season Tournament games, so it has added incentive for the Kings who trail the Timberwolves by a win in the Western Conference group C. The Spurs are essentially eliminated from contention with a 0-2 record. Sacramento has won 5 of the last six meetings with the Spurs with all of those wins coming by 7 or more points. Lay it here with the Kings. |
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11-16-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 128-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 227 Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors will be without Draymond Green (who doesn’t impact this number significantly) and Steph Curry who clearly has a huge impact on the game/outcome. Curry has carried the Warriors offensively this season averaging 30.7 points per game, on 49% shooting from the field and 45% from beyond the Arc. His absence was obvious in their most recent game against the Wolves when they managed just 101-points and shot just 42% from the field as a team. They also hit just 13 of 39 3-pointers in the game. Another factor is the pace of play and how it changes with the aging Chris Paul on the floor who prefers to play slow. The Warriors are 24th in the league in effective FG% at 52% but have an EF% of 47.4% in their last three games. It won’t be an easy task scoring tonight against a Thunder defense that ranks 7th in overall efficiency ratings allowing just 1.097-points per possession. OKC has held their last three opponents to 105 (Kings), 99 (Suns) and 87 (Spurs) points. This has been a very high scoring series but without Curry on the floor we expect a much lower scoring output in this one. If we go back to 2019 the Warriors are 78-89 (53.3%) Under when coming off a loss. |
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11-16-23 | Wright State +9.5 v. Indiana | Top | 80-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
#717 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State +10 or +9.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IU has been less than impressive to say the least in their 2 wins this season. They won their season opener by 6 points vs Florida Gulf Coast and then beat Army by 8 points on Sunday. They weren’t even close to covering either game losing to the spread by a combined 25 points. Those 2 opponents currently have an 0-5 record vs D1 opponents this season. The closest losses this season for both of those teams were vs Indiana. In those games the Hoosiers had a massive advantage from the foul line (+32 made FT’s in those 2 games combined) and still struggled to win those games. IU was only +3 on the boards in those games and now face a Wright State team that has more size than both those opponents and has been decent on the boards. This Indiana team is not playing well to start the season and Wright State is a very solid mid Major who will give IU all they can handle. The Raiders just faced Toledo (the 2nd best team in the MAC) and lost 78-77. They have the makings of a team that can pull the upset as they shoot the ball very well (43rd nationally in eFG% after finishing 44th last year) and they make their FT’s (76%). The Wright State program is used to success vs the big boys as head coach Nagy has faced 7 major conference teams during the regular season and he’s pulled off outright wins in 3 of those games vs NC State, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. This is a huge opportunity for WSU playing on the big stage vs a Big 10 opponent so they’ll bring it on Thursday. Indiana has bigger fish to fry this weekend facing reigning National Champs UConn at Madison Square Garden. Too many points here as we look for the Raiders to give IU a run for their money. |
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11-15-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on #513 Sacramento Kings +1.5 vs LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - This is a very favorable scheduling situation for the Kings as they catch the Lakers off a win last night over Memphis. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, it’s also the 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. How much will LeBron even play tonight? The Kings have had their ups and downs but now have DeAaron Fox back from injury and have won 3 straight. The Kings last game/win came on Nov 13th over the Cavaliers 132-120. These two teams have similar efficiency ratings when it comes to defense, but offensively It’s not close as the Kings average 1.127 points per possession compared to the Lakers 1.088PPP. Last season in this scheduling situation the Lakers had one of the worst efficiency differentials in the NBA at minus -10.7 and they won just 40% of those games. The Kings have been especially good on the offensive glass in their last three games, averaging 13 O-boards per game compared to the Lakers 8.7. This means more to the Kings who have always had to look up to the Lakers and it’s shown in recent years with the Kings winning 5 of the last six meetings, including a 5-point win earlier this season. We like Sacramento here over a fatigued Lakers team. |
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11-14-23 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 225.5 | Top | 126-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - This line opened 233.5 and has moved down giving us added value with an Over bet. The Hawks are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.2 possessions per game. Detroit is slightly below average at 99.5 for the season. Detroit is 21st in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.103 points per possession. The Hawks are 5th at 1.177PPP. The key here is that both are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defensive efficiency as both allow more than 1.140 points per possession. In their last five games, each team has been worse on the defensive end of the court allowing 117.6PPG (Hawks) and 118.6PPG (Pistons). Atlanta does a great job on the offensive boards with the 5th best average in the league compared to the Pistons who rank 14th in allowing O-boards. Conversely, the Pistons are 7th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, while the Hawks the 15th most. Both teams convert in transition extremely well ranking 3rd and 9th in fast break efficiency. Atlanta is coming off two straight games against top 10 defensive efficiency teams in the Heat and Magic and those games finished with 226 and 239 total points. Detroit is coming off two lower scoring games by their standards, but they faced a top 10 defense in Philly and the 3rd slowest paced team in the Bulls. Last season in four meetings these two teams scored 231, 248, 235 and 236. Bet Over! |
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11-14-23 | Bowling Green v. Oakland -125 | Top | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland -1 over Bowling Green, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Oakland is 0-2 on the season but both were road games vs Big 10 teams. The Grizzlies were more than competitive vs high level teams Ohio State (lost by 6) and Illinois (lost by 11). They easily covered both of those games by a combined 27 points. Now they take a big step down talent wise facing Bowling Green in their home opener. BG is 2-0, which is giving us some value here, but their wins have come against Chicago State (one of the worst teams in the nation) and Arkansas State, both at home. In their most recent game on Saturday vs Arkansas State the Falcons won by 6 but it was a 2 point game with 19 seconds remaining. BG made 11 more FT’s in the game which was the difference. Now they take the road where they’ve been poor to say the least with a 7-21 SU record over the last 2 seasons. The Falcons have on 1 starter returning and just 21% of their minutes are back from last year which is the 2nd lowest total in the MAC. They are also trying to mesh a number of new transfers along with a new coach who came over from Southern Utah. Meanwhile on the Oakland bench is head coach Kampe who has 675 wins at the school which is the 4th most wins of any active coach. This is also a revenger for Oakland who lost 87-82 last year vs Bowling Green. The Grizzlies, who were favored by 8 in that game, blew a lead with under 1 minute remaining in that one. Now they are laying only a single point this year at home which is some solid value in our opinion. Their first 2 really tough road games have prepared them to get a home win here. Take Oakland. |
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11-13-23 | UC-Santa Barbara +3.5 v. UTEP | Top | 76-89 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
#891 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UC Santa Barbara +3.5 over UTEP, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting the Big West reigning champs UCSB (27-8 record last year) off an opening season loss last week vs a solid Portland State team. The Gauchos played that game without PG Mitchell who was the Big West player of the year last season. He had a slight injury and was held out as a precaution but practiced over the weekend so we anticipate he’s back here. He’ll be teamed with 2 other veteran guards Anderson & Pierre-Louis giving UCSB one of the top backcourts out West. Those 2 combined for 35 points and 7 assists in Thursday’s 6 point loss and now we add Mitchell back in the mix. UTEP is coming off a 14-18 season and finished 10th in CUSA’s 11 team league. They step into this game with a 2-0 record but their opponents were McMurry College and University of Science and Arts. The Miners may be a bit overconfident after scoring 120+ points in both of those games and shooting over 60% (combined both games) vs horrific opponents. Now they face one of the better mid majors in the country with a solid core back (all of their key guards) that went to the NCAA tournament last season. The Gauchos were favored by 9.5 points in their loss vs Portland State and now they are facing a team we have similarly rated and UCSB is more than a full possession underdog (+3.5 as of this write up on Sunday night). Nice value here with the better team getting points in our opinion. |
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11-10-23 | Wolves -6 v. Spurs | Top | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have opened some eyes this season with a current 4 game winning streak with impressive wins against Boston and Denver in that stretch. Granted, both W’s were at home but now they face a young Spurs team going through growing pains. San Antonio is 4-6 SU on the season but have now lost 3 straight with one of those being at home to the Raptors as a +3.5-point underdog. The Wolves should be a bigger favorite here if Toronto was laying -3.5. Minnesota is 3rd in the league in average point differential at plus +10.6PPG. San Antonio is last in the league in +/- at minus -12.5PPG. Neither offense has been great, ranking near league average in offensive efficiency, but defensively it’s not close. In fact, there couldn’t be a great difference between two teams in the league when it come to DEFF with the Wolves ranking 1st and the Spurs 30th. We will lay the points and predict a double-digit win by Minnesota in this one. |
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11-08-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-128 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219.5 LA Lakers @ Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - We don’t see many points being scored in this contest and will bet UNDER the total. Houston is actually playing defense for their new coach Udoka which shouldn’t be a surprise considering his Celtics in 21-22 was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Houston has held the Kings to 97 and 89 points in their last two games and also held the Warriors to 106 four games ago. The Kings and Warriors were both top 10 in offensive efficiency a year ago. Now they face a Lakers team that was 20th in OEFF last season and currently rank 25th this season at 1.047-points per possession. Houston is ranked near league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency with their games averaging 218.8 total points per game. The Lakers are scoring less than the league average at 111.1PPG and rank 29th in team 3PT% at 29.8%. Both teams favored the UNDER last season when playing in this rest schedule with a combined 12-17-1 combined record. |
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11-06-23 | Wizards v. 76ers OVER 228.5 | Top | 128-146 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 in Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - NBA games are averaging 225.2 points per game but this game will be anything but ‘average’. The Wiz are the fastest paced team in the league 105.5 possessions per game. They have to play fast because they don’t play defense and they are not overly efficient on the offensive end. Washington is averaging 115PPG but allowing 125.2PPG. They are 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency. That’s not a good recipe for success against a Philadelphia team that is averaging 1.188-points per possession which is 4th best in the league. The Sixers are the 6th best FG% team in the league at 48.6%, 6th in 3PT% at 39% and it doesn’t hurt they make their free throws at 81.8% which is 5th. Washington has some of the worst defensive numbers in the league including being last in FG% D and 28th in 3PT% D. The Wiz have faced Atlanta, Boston and Indiana this season who have similar scoring number to Philly and those three teams put 130, 126 and 143 points against Washington. Easy Over call here. |
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11-04-23 | Kings -127 v. Rockets | Top | 89-107 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
ASA Top Play 10* on: #513 Sacramento Kings -2 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - We will back a good team in the West, the Kings, off a loss against one of the worst teams in the NBA off their first win of the season. Houston shot INSANELY well in their win over the Hornets by hitting 57% or 21 of 37 3-pointers. Going into that game the Rockets were shooting just 29.3% from deep. Houston put up 128 points but that was against a Charlotte defense that is one of the worst in the NBA. Against two comparable defenses to the Kings, the Rockets have failed to top 100 points against the Magic and Warriors. Sacramento grades out near even to the Warriors in our power ratings and Golden State was a 7-point favorite on this floor just last week. The Kings are 10th in offensive efficiency this season and 15th defensively. In comparison the Rockets are 23rd in OEFF and 27th in DEFF. Sacramento has beaten this team 6 straight times and only one of those wins was by less than 3-points. You’ll be surprised to know that the Kings are the best team in the league ATS when coming off a loss since the start of last season with a 24-14 ATS record. Lay the small points or consider the money line in the -125 range. |
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11-03-23 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 225.5 | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 225.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:10PM ET - This is a rematch from a game earlier this season in Cleveland where these two teams combined for 238 total points. Two things stand out from those results. 1) The Cavs had a 12-point quarter which is drastically lower than an average NBA quarter. 2) The Cavaliers played without their best player and leading scorer Donovan Mitchell who averages over 31PPG. The Pacers may be without T Haliburton here but that just means more minutes/opportunities for Aaron Nesmith who scored 26 points against this Cavs team in the first meeting. Indiana is 4th in pace of play which means they’ll want to play fast here. Cleveland is one of the slower teams, but they average 1.048 points per possession which is the 6th most efficient offense in the league. Indiana has the 2nd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.204 points per possession allowed. Cleveland hasn’t been as good defensively to start this season ranking 16th in DEFF. These two teams combined for 225 or more points in 4 of the last five meetings. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL. |
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11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play 10* on: #559 Orlando Magic Pick'em at Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Yes, you read that correctly, we are taking the road favorite Magic tonight. Scheduling will be a factor here as the Jazz are coming off a game last night versus Memphis and also just played in Denver on the 30th. Last season when playing without rest the Jazz were 4-11 SU with a negative differential. The Magic will hold a huge advantage on the defensive end of the court as they rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.001 points per possession. The last place or 30th team in the NBA in DEFF is the Utah Jazz allowing 1.223PPP. In terms of offensive efficiency these teams are nearly identical at 1.111 points per possession. The Jazz were 16-21 SU last season off a win, and this is going to be a tough situation against a rested Magic team off a loss in their previous game. Take the better defense and back the Magic. |
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11-01-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #546 Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets – 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation to back the Wolves at home here as they are coming off a loss to the Hawks and playing with revenge from last year’s playoffs series loss to Denver. Minnesota actually played well in Atlanta the other night but couldn’t overcome some hot shooting by the Hawks. Minnesota shot 49% from the field overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Denver is 4-0 to the start the season but we’re not sold on their record as it’s come against the Lakers, Grizzlies, Thunder and Jazz. Only one of those wins comes against a team with a winning record and two of those wins are against teams with a combined 1-7 SU record. The Wolves were 22-19 SU at home last season with an average Margin of Victory of +0.9PPG while the Nuggets weren’t a great road team with a 19-22 SU record -3.1PPG. Denver may have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating this season, but the Wolves are 7th in defensive efficiency. Last season Karl-Anthony Towns missed all four regular season meetings with the Nuggets and he’ll have a big impact in this game that Minnesota has had circled since last season’s playoffs. Grab the points. |
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10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - We were not high on the Warriors heading into the season and nothing on the court has changed that opinion. The Warriors were atrocious on the road last season with a 11-30 SU record and an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG which was 8th worst in the NBA. Tonight, they are playing the second end of a back-to-back and face a rested Pelicans team playing their second straight home game. The Pels have already beaten two playoff teams from a season ago with a 7-point win in Memphis and a 9-point home victory over the 76ers. Despite missing Zion Willamson all of last season and Brandon Ingram for a portion of the season the Pels still put together a 27-14 SU home record with an average +/- of +5PPG. Last season at home the Pelicans beat the Warriors twice, once by 9-points and once by 45. Golden State is still a marquee team and opponents ‘get up’ every time they face the Warriors and you can bet the Pelicans bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Lay the short number. |
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10-28-23 | Knicks v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - This is a great early season situation to back the Pelicans at home facing the unrested Knicks. New York is off a hard fought game last night in Atlanta making this the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four nights. Last night the Knicks had a tight rotation with essentially 8 players getting all the minutes so fatigue becomes a factor in this one. New Orleans got off to a great start to the season with a road win on Oct 25th in Memphis. This will be their home opener where the Pels were 27-15 SU with an average +/- of plus 4.8PPG last season. New Orleans achieved that record despite not having Zion Williamson for the season and missing Brandon Ingram for 37 games. In the season opener they had their starting five in place for the 111-104 win over Memphis where they dominated the glass with a 52-37 rebound advantage. This game has blowout written all over it. Back the Pelicans at home here. |
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10-27-23 | Nets +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with a Nets team off a home loss, while the Mavs are off a road win. Dallas got a 7-point win over the young San Antonio Spurs who won just 22 games a year ago. Brooklyn took a contender in the Eastern Conference down to the wire and lost by 1-point to the Cavaliers. The Nets suffered that close loss despite their best players having off nights. Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Spencer Dinwiddie led the Nets in scoring a year ago at 26.1PPG, 16.6PPG and 16.5PPG respectively. Between the 3 of them in the opener they managed just 37-total points. Those players will see a dramatic improvement in their scoring tonight seeing they just faced a Cavs team that was 1st in defensive efficiency a year ago. Dallas by comparison was 23rd in the league in DEFF a season ago. The Nets had a winning record on the road last season at 22-19 with a +/- of -1.3PPG. Dallas at home was 23-18 SU with an average Margin of Victory of +2.7PPG. Last season the Mavs were the worst home favorite in the NBA with a 10-23-2 ATS record. As an away dog the Nets were a profitable 15-11 ATS. Easy call to grab the points with Brooklyn |
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10-26-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Clearly this is a big marquee match up of two of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference this season and both have made big news in the offseason. The Bucks made a blockbuster trade and brought in Damian Lillard, the 76ers were dealing with distractions in James Harden. A great side story to this game is the new head coaches for both teams. The 76ers brought in former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (I desperately wanted the Bucks to hire him) while the Bucks hired first time head coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin was an assistant under Nurse in Toronto and won a ring in 2019. In regard to tonight’s game. The Bucks may have an adjustment period with Dame in the lineup with Giannis as you have two Alpha males that averaged over 31PPG a season ago. The 76ers played without Harden enough though so they really won’t have a tough time adjusting in this opener. The Bucks were 33-11 SU at home a season ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Philadelphia had the second-best road record a year ago at 29-18 SU with a plus/minus of +2.9PPG. The Underdog covered 3 of four last year in this series as every game but one was close. In fact, the dog won 3 of the four outright. This Sixers roster is still very good with a budding star in Maxey, an MVP candidate in Embiid and solid vets as a supporting cast in Beverley, Harris and Tucker. A sneaky good addition to the roster is Kelly Oubre Jr who can be a game changer when motivated. We like the veteran coach to have the upper hand tonight in what should be a close game throughout. Grab the points. |
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10-25-23 | Celtics -3 v. Knicks | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* BOSTON CELTICS -3 at NY Knicks – 7:10 PM ET - If you missed our Futures bet article, we had the Celtics over their win total this season. The Celtics went through a major overhaul of their roster BUT the players they brought in are selfless and will conform to the Boston way much quicker than others might. That’ the genius of GM Brad Stevens who knows he had a core to get to a Championship series, he just needed a few other parts to win it all. Those key pieces are Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. This team won’t miss a beat and will open the season with a big win over the rival Knicks. Including the playoffs, the Celtics were 31-19 SU on the road with an average +/- of +2.9PPG which was best in the league. New York pretty much stood pat with their roster in the offseason with a team that went 47-35 SU and owned the 7th best overall Margin of Victory of +2.9PPG. Boston and New York were very similar in terms of offensive efficiency with both ranking in the top 4 but defensively it wasn’t close as the Celtics finished the year 3rd in DEFF while the Knicks were 19th. The Knicks beat the C’s 3 straight in the series, all as underdogs but we like Boston to open this season with a W. |
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10-24-23 | Lakers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on: LA Lakers +5.5 at Denver Nuggets – 7:30PM ET - The Nuggets swept the Lakers out of the Playoffs last season, but all four games were decided by 11-points or less. Three of the four games had a final margin of 6-points or less. A couple things we know for certain tonight, which we may not know in the regular season, is that LeBron and Anthony Davis are both eager to play. Nuggets head coach Malone had some things to say about the Lakers after they swept them last season and apparently the Lakers took offense. In reality, talk is cheap, and that motivation will only last early in the game and then it’s business as usual. We do like the Lakers' improvements to their roster. Gabe Vincent gives them another playmaking guard that can shoot. Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince add to their depth along with Christian Wood. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road a season ago with an average plus/minus of -2.1PPG. Denver was 34-7 SU at home in the regular season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. The Lakers made solid strides in the second half of the season, especially defensively as they finished the year allowing just 1.140-points per possession. The Nuggets lost two key components to their roster with the departure of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green while the Lakers got stronger with their additions. Don’t be surprised if LA wins this game outright. |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -8.5 vs Miami Heat, Game 5 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - The Heat have been a fantastic story this postseason after upsetting the two best teams in the East to make the Finals, but their season comes to an end tonight. Miami got some incredible contributions from a few of their role players but it’s apparent that Cinderella story has come to an end. Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson have essentially disappeared in the Finals and Adebayo/Butler can only carry the load so far. Denver’s three wins in this series have all come by double-digits and in the most recent game they got a less than normal performance from their two SuperStars Murray and Jokic. With the Nuggets back at home where they are 9-1 SU in the playoffs, and currently own an average +/- of +9.9PPG on the entire season, we expect a convincing win against a team that has run out of gas. The Nugs have also won 37 of their last 42 home games. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* MIAMI HEAT +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 4 Friday 8:30 PM ET - This is tough for me as we predicted the Nuggets in 5 games but with how the last game played out, we expect Game 4 to go down to the wire. The Nuggets adapted in Game 3 after the Heat used Jimmy Butler as the primary defender on Murray in G2 and it paid off with Jamal scoring 34-points. Now it’s Spoelstra’s turn to make an adjustment and we’re confident he will have a new dynamic in Game 4 for the Nugget to try and figure out. Denver used Jokic and Murray in an exclusive 2-man game and told the rest of the team to watch and it worked perfectly. Miami’s defense wasn’t the main culprit though as their offense failed them. The Heat shot just 37% overall and 31% from the 3-point line. In the postseason, the Heat are shooting .469% overall and .392% from beyond the arc. Miami has been the best overall 3-point shooting team in the playoffs. With their backs against the wall, we like the Miami shooters to find the range at home in this do-or-die Game 4. Miami is 17-6 SU at home off a loss this season including a 5-2 SU record in the postseason. Grab whatever points are available. |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat, Game 3 Weds 8:30 PM ET - We’ve hit our two Side wagers on the first two games of this series and will now bet the Over/Under in Game 3. We like UNDER the Total and expect a lower scoring game. In the opener these two teams combined for 197 total points on 175 FG attempts. Miami had a poor shooting night and only attempted 2 FT’s in the game. In Game 2 there were only 153 field goal attempts, yet the game creeped Over the Total of 216 when 219 points were scored. The big reason that Over cashed was incredible shooting by the Heat in the 4th quarter. Miami made 7 straight FG’s to start the 4th on their way to a 36-point quarter. Both teams also shot well above expectations in Game 2 so expect a regression in Game 3. As far as the pace of play is concerned these two teams were two of the slower paced teams in the league during the regular season ranking 2nd slowest (MIA) and 8th (DEN). Both of these teams have averaged fewer possessions per game in the postseason too. The Nuggets head coach Malone and veteran Jeff Green called out their team defensively after Game 2 so expect a much better effort on that end of the court here. BET UNDER! |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
ASA NBA Top Play on 10* Miami Heat +8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - Game 1 went according to plan as the Nuggets dominated a tired Heat team and had the spread covered with 5-minutes to go in the 2nd quarter and never let the lead slip below double digits. We like Denver to win this series BUT we will grab the points in Game 2 given how Game 1 played out. The Heat lost by 11-points despite shooting just 41% overall and making 13 of 39 3-point attempts. They also attempted just 2 free throws the entire game. All of those numbers are extremely low based on what Miami has done this entire postseason. The Heat own the best 3PT% in the playoffs at .387%. They have been the 6th best overall shooting team at .468%. On average they have attempted 20 free throws per game, making on average 16.1. In Game 1 the Nuggets shot above expectations at 51% overall, made 30% of their 3’s (slightly lower than playoff average) and hit 16 of 20 FT’s. If Miami has an ‘average’ game by their playoff standards, they will keep this game within double digits. They now have extra days rest and time to get acclimated to the higher altitude of Denver. We are betting on Jimmy Butler being much better than his 13-points on 14-field goal attempts. We also expect Martin, Strus and Robinson to shoot much better from beyond the arc than they did in Game 1 when they were a combined 2 for 16. Yes, Denver has not lost at home in the postseason, but the Heat have also won 6 road games in the playoffs. This game will be much closer than the last. Grab the points. |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 vs. Boston Celtics, Game 1 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - I was watching Game 7 of the Heat/Celtics the other night and when it became obvious that the Heat were going to win, I started immediately thinking about Game 1 of the Finals. I actually said to my wife, if the playoff sporadic Celtics were favored by 10-points at home in Game 2 of that series that suggests the Nuggets should be favored by 12 in Game 1 given the circumstances. The Heat have played a gauntlet of brutally tough games/series and now must travel to the higher altitude of Denver to face a Nuggets team that has been off 9-days. Eventually, everyone’s legs will go for the Heat as they are not that deep to begin with. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat “sacrifice” Game 1 to try and steal Game 2. Teams with at least 7 days of extra rest are 4-1 SU in Game 1’s. The Heat were the 4th worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season but have miraculously shot over 43% in their series against the Bucks and Celtics. Miami has the 23rd EFG% in the NBA at 53.2% while Denver has the best overall EFG% at 57%. Denver had the 13th best EFG% defense, Miami own’s the 23rd worst. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs with an average +/- of +12PPG. Denver was also a much better team defensively at home this season allowing just 1.107-points per possession (5th) during the regular season. Lastly, I typically don’t talk matchups, but the Nuggets have a decisive advantage with Nikola Jokic over anyone the Heat throw at him. Adebayo can’t match him in the post and can’t exploit him defensively on the perimeter. In fact, Joker is 10-2 SU lifetime versus Adebayo. Overall, the Nuggets have won 9 of the past 10 meetings over the last 5 seasons. We like Denver BIG in Game 1. |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | Top | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Miami Heat, Game 7 @ 7:30 PM ET - Pressure! All the pressure now sits squarely on the Miami Heat as they have blown a 3-0 lead in this series and could potentially be the first team ever to lose a playoff series in that scenario. Last time out the shooting for both teams was the storyline. Boston couldn’t make a 3-pointer as they shot just 20% from Deep. They did, however, shoot 63% on 2-pointers and made 29 of 34 FT’s. Miami on the other hand shot 47% from beyond the arc but hit just 30% from inside the line. The added value in the line is also significant in this elimination game. The three previous games between these two teams in Boston had you laying -8.5, -10 and -8.5 points. I’m betting the Celtics have another shooting game as they did in Game 5 at home when they won by 13-points. The C’s shot 41% from the 3-point line in that game and own the 6th best 3PT% in the NBA. Would we be surprised to see Miami struggle to shoot again? No! The Heat were a bad shooting team all season long ranking 26th in team FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston at home and predict a Celtic win by 15. |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210.5 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 6 Saturday 8:30 PM ET - These two teams just shot 51% against each other and still only managed 207 total points in the last game. The reason why was the slow deliberate pace by both teams with a combined 157 field goal attempts. The field goal attempts in the first two games were below league average with 166 attempts in Game 1 and 172 in Game 2. The NBA average for FGA per game this season was 176. In Games 3 & 4 they attempted 179 and 162. During the regular season the Heat owned the 9th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.135-points per possession. Boston was 3rd giving up 1.115PPP. In the Playoffs the Celtics are allowing 1.130PPP which is obviously very good, but Miami has been better yet allowing just 1.117PPP which is 4th best. Also, in the postseason both teams’ pace of play has slowed. Two big injuries will also have an impact on the total points scored by these teams. Malcom Brogdon has issues with his shooting arm and may not play. If he does how effective can he be shooting? The big loss for the Heat is Gabe Vincent who has been outstanding in the playoffs. Vincent is averaging 13.5PPG in this series and has provided Miami with another 3-point threat (11 of 22 from Deep vs. Boston) with Tyler Herro on the bench. Both defenses will play at a peak level in this game and expect both teams to favor a much slower tempo. Bet UNDER! |
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05-25-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on Miami Heat +8 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston may win this game but asking them to cover is too much. The Heat have clearly been the better team in this series overall and have largely outplayed Boston for the majority of the series. In the Celtics Game 4 win the Heat shot poorly at 44% overall and 25% from the 3-point line. The Heat had shot well in the previous 3 games by hitting over 52% from Deep in two of three games and over 46% in all three. Miami has the 2nd best average point differential in the NBA in the Playoffs at +4.7PPG which trails only the Nuggets at +8.3PPG. Miami is 5th in points allowed per possession in the postseason compared to the Celtics who rank 10th allowing 1.138PPP. Offensively the Celtics have a slight edge in the playoffs averaging 1.182-points per possession, but the Heat are right behind the at 1.170PPP. The Heat match up well with Boston which is why they’ve covered 5 of the last six meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Boston. We like the points here with Miami. |
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05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 216 | Top | 116-99 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET Game 4 - All three games of this series have gone Over the total. That’s somewhat surprising considering they have been below the league average in field goal attempts in 2 of three games. But hot shooting by the Heat has been the driving factor. Miami is 26th in the NBA in shooting percentage at 46% and 27th in 3-point percentage at 34.4%. In this series they shot 54%, 46% and 57% in the three games. They have also shot over 52% in two of the three games from beyond the arc. Boston had one of the best defensive efficiency ratings in the regular season, but they are giving up 1.142-points per possession in the Playoffs. Off that embarrassing Game 3 blowout I’m betting the Celtics Stars Tatum and Brown will come out firing in this elimination game. The Over has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings. The O/U line is low again so grab the value with Over. |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA LAKERS -3 vs. Denver Nuggets – Game 4 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - We're betting there is enough pride left in the Lakers locker room to come out with a motivated effort here to avoid getting embarrassed and swept in the Playoffs. The Lakers have outplayed the Nuggets for a majority of the games but have fallen victim to big runs by the Nuggets, like the 13-0 run in the 4th quarter of last game. The key to this game is the line value. This line is where the Game 3 number should have been so now, we get to back a L.A. team at the proper number. The Lakers were 30-19 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of nearly +5PPG. They shoot 48.1% overall at home and hold foes to 45.2%. Denver has not been a great road team this season with a 22-25 SU road record and an average differential of minus -2.1PPG. The Nuggets defense on the road has been suspect this season as they allow opponents to make 49.4% of their field goal attempts and give up 115.1PPG. As long as LeBron and Anthony Davis show up tonight we should be in a good position to win with the Lakers. |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Denver Nuggets @ LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET Game 3 - These two teams had an incredible shooting night in Game 1 and produced 258-total points between them. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. In Game 2 we got a game that was much more predictive of what these two teams really are. They combined for 211 total points on 171 field goal attempts. The Lakers came back to Earth with a 44% shooting night and 8 of 30 Game 3 from beyond the arc. Denver was close to their season averages of 44% overall and 37% from deep. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. If you paid close attention to Game 2 then you saw what we saw which was too very fatigued teams from the intensity and higher altitude in Denver. The Lakers defense at home in the postseason has been outstanding as they have held all of their opponents to 104 or less points in regulation time. This will be another low field goal attempt game and stay UNDER the total. |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -8.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 2 at 8:30 PM ET - Don’t be intimidated by the number in this one. When the Heat faced the Bucks they were dogs by 9-points and 13-points in two of the games in Milwaukee. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. In Game 1 the Heat caught fire (no pun intended) by hitting 54% of their FG attempts and 52% of their 3-point attempts (16 of 31). As we previously reported, that won’t continue in Game 2 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the league and the Heat are 27th in the league 3PT% at 34.4%. We like Boston at home off that loss and predict a Celtic win by 15. |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 2 - Everyone just watched these two teams produce 258 total points in Game 1 of this series. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. The Lakers defense just held the Warriors to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should make adjustments to limit Jokic and Murray from scoring 30+. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last eight. Don’t expect Anthony Davis to have a repeat performance of 40 points and it’s unlikely they get 40 combined from Reaves and Hachimura. |
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05-17-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 1 8:30 PM ET - The value in the number tells us to back the Celtics at home in the opener. In the two games in Milwaukee that Giannis played in the Bucks were favored by 9-points and 13-points. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. These two teams split their regular season meetings with the favorite covering 3 of the four. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston by double-digits in the opener. |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 222.5 | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 1 - With more money and tickets on the Over you would expect this line to go up, but it didn’t and one respected Sports Book is even carrying 222 on this game. That has us liking the Under even more coupled with our standard statistical projections. The Lakers just faced a Warriors team that was the fastest paced team in the NBA during the regular season AND was the 2nd highest in scoring and the series averaged 222.5PPG. Now the Lakers face a Nuggets team that was 23rd in pace of play a t98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. When the Nuggets have been at home in the Playoffs thus far they have stayed Under 223 total points in 4 of six games. The Lakers defense just held a Warriors team to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should be up for the challenge of slowing this Nuggets team down. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last seven. Our model projects 216 total points here. |
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05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 7 - We liked the Celtics to come out of the East before the Playoffs started and will back them here in this Game 7 over Philly. Examining the last game, the Celtics won despite a horrible game by Tatum. Jaylen Brown wasn’t great either with 17 points and 7 rebounds. In this situation it’s hard to back a Philadelphia team that will need a great James Harden, who has a penchant for not showing up in big games, to be just that…great. Embiid is obviously one of the best players in the game, but it will be hard for him to carry this team to the finish line. Boston had the 3rd best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers at home this season. Philly was 1st in DEFF on the road but 10th in OEFF away from home. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season and we don’t see them losing a third home game in this series to the 76ers. |
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05-12-23 | Knicks v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We were grateful for the Knicks win in the last game of this series, but the facts of the matter are the Heat have clearly been the better team overall. The oddmakers have obviously seen what we’ve seen as they’ve bumped this line higher than the previous two games in Miami. The home team has won 4 straight with a 3-1 ATS record. Going back further the host has won 7 of the last nine meetings. The last four wins by the home team have all come by 6+ points. New York was good away from home all season long but it’s obvious the Heat have “flipped a switch” in the postseason and are playing at another level. Miami is 32-15 SU at home on the season and have won 5 straight home playoff games. Even when you factor in the play in loss to the Hawks at home the Heat have an average +/- at home in the PO’s of +9PPG. The Heat have covered 7 of the last ten meetings with the Knicks on this floor and are also on a 4-0 ATS streak when coming off a loss. Miami is the tougher team and they finish this series tonight with a double-digit win over the Knicks. |
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05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 212 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 212 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - The five games in this series have finished with 234, 208, 216, 214 (in regulation) and 218 total points. The Celtics had scored 114 or more in each game, up until the last one when they managed just 103 points. Boston had a poor shooting night in Game 5 by hitting just 40% overall and 32% from deep. Boston shoots 47.5% as a team overall and 37.7% from the 3-point line. The one game in this series that has stayed below the Total, the 76ers had an exceptionally bad shooting night at 39% overall and 20% from the 3-point line. Those numbers are not indicative of the Sixes offense this season that owned the 6th best FG% in the league at 48.7% and was 1st in 3PT% at 38.7%. These two teams ranked 3rd and 2nd in offensive efficiency with Philly averaging 1.178-ponts per possession, Boston averaged 1.181PPP. Seven of the last ten meetings between these two teams has finished with more than 214 total points. Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finished with 228 total points being scored so getting to 213 for these two teams shouldn’t be a problem. |
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05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - We will go back to the well with the Knicks in this elimination Game 5. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, then in Game 4 the Heat pulled another stunning road upset of the Knicks by 8. The Knicks shot poorly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. In Game 4 the Knicks played well throughout most of the game until the 4th quarter when they shot just 33% for the quarter and gave up 7 offensive rebounds in the final stanza. New York was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA at 46.6 boards per game but have been out rebounded by 11 in the last two games. We expect that to change in this do-or-die situation at home and will back the small home favorite. New York is 13-6-1 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of 3-7-points. Miami as a dog in this same price range is 6-9 ATS. |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The home team has won and covered all 4 meetings thus far in this series and we are betting that trend continues. In the first two games of this series the Nuggets dominated at home with an 18-point and 10-point win. The two games in Phoenix were relatively close and in the pivotal Game 3 the Suns won by 5-points despite shooting 57% overall and 45% from Deep. The Nuggets are 39-7 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +10.2PPG. Phoenix is 19-26 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.9PPG. Denver was exceptional off a loss this season with a 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS record at home when coming off a defeat. The Nugs have covered 6 of their last seven at home and our computer simulator has them winning this game and getting a cover in the process. |
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05-08-23 | Knicks +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +4.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks have the right makeup to battle through adversity with a tough-minded defensive team and proven coach. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, but we like them to bounce back here. The Knicks shot uncharacteristically badly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. Miami was the benefactor of 31 free throw attempts to the Knicks 22 and the Heat made 28 of those attempts. Miami had an average +/- at home this season of just +1.2PPG which was 20th in the NBA. The Knicks average point differential on the road was 5th best in the league at +1.6PPG. This Knicks team found a way to win 2 road games in Cleveland in the 1st round and they’ll keep this game close to the final buzzer. |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 214.5 | Top | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 214.5 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers, 3:30 PM ET - The three games in this series have finished with 234, 208 and 216 total points. The Celtics have done their jobs offensively scoring 114 or more in each. The one game that stayed below the Total, the 76ers had an exceptionally bad shooting night at 39% overall and 20% from the 3-point line. Those numbers are not indicative of the Sixers offense this season that owned the 6th best FG% in the league at 48.7% and was 1st in 3PT% at 38.7%. James Harden has been especially bad in the last two games, scoring just 12 and 16-points after scoring 45 in Game 1. We predict James will get back on track at home in this pivotal Game 4. Embiid scored 30-points in his second game back from injury and should be even better with a couple games now under his belt. These two teams ranked 3rd and 2nd in offensive efficiency with Philly averaging 1.178-ponts per possession, Boston averaged 1.181PPP. 5 of the last eight meetings between these two teams has finished with more than 214 total points. Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finished with 228 total points being scored so getting to 214 for these two teams shouldn’t be a problem. |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -3 | Top | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - The Lakers stole Game 1 of this series with a win on the Warriors home court. Anthony Davis had a monster 30-point 23-rebound game in that road victory for L.A. In a must-win situation the Warriors pounded the Lakers by 27-points after hitting 48 of 95 field goal attempts (51%) and going 21 of 42 from beyond the Arc (50%). AD didn’t show up for the Lakers in Game 2 with 11-points and 7-rebounds. With this series shifting to Los Angeles, we like the Lakers in Game 3 and expect a regression from the Warriors and their insane Game 2 shooting. The Lakers defense was significantly better after the All-Star break as they allowed the 9th fewest points per game in the league. Much has been made in regard to the Warriors horrible road record this season of 13-32 SU away from home. During the regular season the Warriors had the 24th worst average road differential at minus -4.3PPG. To put that into perspective, it was barely better than Orlando or Charlotte. The Lakers were better than average at home during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and an average +/- of +3.2PPG. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five in L.A. versus the Warriors and four straight games overall when coming off a loss. We expect the Warriors road woes to continue and will support the Lakers in Game 3. |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We actually like this game and number more with Chris Paul out of the game for the Suns. Paul is obviously a great player, but this just opens the door for KD and Booker to take over the game offensively for the Suns. Phoenix was handled in Games 1 and 2 in Denver but bounce back at home off those two embarrassing losses. KD was especially bad in Game 2 when he shot 10 of 27 overall, just 2 of 12 from Deep. As a team the Suns shot just 40% overall and 19% from beyond the Arc. We are betting they return to form offensively at home where they shot 47% overall and 38.5% from the 3-point line. As we mentioned in our previous wager on the Nuggets, they are great defensively at home but not so much on the road. Denver allowed 1.178-points per possession on the road this season which was 22nd in the NBA. They allowed opponents to shoot 49.3% when away from home and average 115.2PPG. Denver had a negative road differential of -3.1PPG which was also the 22nd worst number in the league. Phoenix was 9th in the NBA with an average margin of victory at home of plus +4.9PPG. The Suns get it done with a huge effort in this do-or-die situation and win by double-digits. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9 PM ET - We had the Lakers in Game 1 but will now side with Golden State at home in Game 2 off that loss. This isn’t spread related but the home team that has lost Game 1 of the series has now won 15 straight times in Game 2 after the Celtics big win last night over Philly in this same scenario. The Warriors have been really good off a loss this season with a 18-3 SU home record, 14-7 ATS spread record. Golden State is 35-10 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +7.1PPG which is the 5th best average in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-23 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.0PPG. L.A. won Game 1 by 5-points but also benefited from 29 free throw attempts compared to just 6 for the Warriors. The Warriors are 3-point reliant so they typically don’t shoot as many free throws as their opponents but the disparity in Game 1 will likely be more even in Game 2. The Warriors have covered 4 of their last five when coming off a loss and are in full desperation mode here. The Lakers did lose 2 of 3 games in Memphis with the two losses coming by double-digits. Back the Warriors in this one. |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -10 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 2 - We like the Celtics to bounce back at home and get a big win to even this series at 1-1. James Harden turned back the clock in Game 1, scoring 45 points on 17 of 30 shooting. Harden has a long history of underperforming in the Playoffs and it’s unlikely he can repeat that performance. As a team the 76ers shot 51% overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. I’m betting the Celtics defense will adjust and run the Sixers off the 3-point line in G2. Boston was the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA this season allowing just 1.115-points per possession. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season. Philly had some impressive road numbers but without Embiid they are not the same team. Boston is 19-9 SU off loss this season 10-5 SU at home. We like Boston big in this one. |
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05-02-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors are off an emotional and physical 7-game series against the Kings which just finished on Sunday. Kerr relied heavily on his starters in that game with three (Curry, Wiggins and Green) all logging 37+ minutes. The Lakers have been off since Friday and will be well rested for this series opener. Los Angeles stole Game 1 from Memphis in the previous series and are more than capable of getting a W here. We will disregard the season statistics of the Lakers as they have been much better since the trade deadline, especially defensively. Since the All-Star Break the Lakers are allowing just 110.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. The Warriors are allowing an average of 113.7PPG which is 14th. The Warriors have been slightly better offensively since the ASB scoring 118.8PPG compared to 116.2PPG for L.A. The Warriors have great home numbers but given the circumstances of short rest versus the Laker 3-days rest we have to grab the points with the Underdog. The Lakers have won 3 of four meetings this season and 4 of the last six. |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 227 | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Monday, 10 PM ET - The O/U on game 1 of this series was the same Total it is here at 227.5 and the two teams combined for 232-points. We expect another similar outcome in Game 2. These two teams combined for 185 field goal attempts in the opener which is 9 more than the regular season average for the entire NBA. Phoenix has the 7th best 3PT% in the league but connected on just 7 of 23 attempts for 30%. The Nuggets scored 125 points on 48% shooting and 43% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect a dramatic change in Denver’s output but do expect the Suns to score more. Phoenix did average 113.6PPG on the year and rated the 13th best offensive efficiency. Phoenix is on a strong 7-1-1 Over streak their last 9 games, Denver is over 4 of their last 5 overall. The last five meetings between these two teams has averaged 244PPG. This game isn’t getting to that number, but based on pace and efficiency ratings this game goes OVER the Total. |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play 10* on NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - We have waited patiently for the perfect opportunity to release a big play of this magnitude and today’s the day. The Miami Heat are coming off a stunning first round upset of the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. Jimmy Butler and head coach Erik Spoelstra carried the Heat to that series victory but now must face a very underrated Knicks team that is also coming off a big opening series win over the Cavaliers. Miami was one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league this season, ranking 25th. Butler cannot sustain his round 1 numbers of 37.6PPG against a Knicks team that is allowing just 1.031-points per possession in the Playoffs. Butler and the Heat don’t have the benefit of facing the Bucks head coach Budenholzer who is incapable of making adjustments in series. Tom Thibodeau of the Knicks is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and he will have a game plan in place to limit Butler and force someone else to beat them. Let’s not under appreciate the Knicks round 1 domination over a very good Cavs team. The Knicks held the Cavs to 94.2PPG and both home wins were by 9 and 20-points. Miami was 30th in the league in scoring this season, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Knicks offensively were much better, and they have a defense that was 13th in PPG allowed, 3rd in opponents FG% and 12th in 3PT%. The biggest advantage the Knicks will have in this game and the series is rebounding. The Knicks were 8th in defensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 25th. New York was 3rd in offensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 23rd. Cleveland had comparable rebounding numbers as the Heat and the Knicks outrebounded them by a total of 41 rebounds. In the regular season the Knicks won 3 of four with the Heat and have covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points! |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -3 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 8:30 PM ET - We are going to tread lightly with Game 1 of this series but do like the Nugget enough to make a small wager on them here. The Nuggets are 37-7 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Phoenix wasn’t a great road team this season with a 17-24 SU record in the regular season with a +/- of minus -0.7PPG. Granted, they didn’t have Kevin Durant for the majority of those games, but they still clearly underperformed away from home. Denver had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at home at +1.205-points per possession. Overall, they weren’t a great defensive team, but when at home they were very good ranking 5th in DEFF allowing just 1.108PPP. Again, Phoenix was in the 12th and 13th in road OEFF and DEFF so good, but not elite. In the opener we like the home team minus the points. |
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04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235.5 | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 235.5 Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors, 8 PM ET - The Kings were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season allowing 1.169-points per possession which ranked 25th. In the playoffs they are allowing just 1.130PPP which is 11th best. What makes those numbers even more impressive is the fact they are facing the Warriors and one of the best offenses in the league. During the regular season the Warriors O averaged 1.164PPP which was 8th. The Kings offensive efficiency numbers have dropped in the postseason also going from 1.195PPP to 1.100PPP. De’Aaron Fox who has a fractured finger on his shooting hand was not 100% in Game 5, but still managed 24 points on 9 of 25 shooting. Fox has scored 27% of the Kings points in the playoffs and clearly didn’t shoot it well last time out. These two teams combined for 239 total points in Game 5 which barely crept over the number in the late stages of that game. We expect both defenses to rise to the occasion tonight and predict a game in the mid-220’s. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:30 PM ET - We expect the Celtics to close this series out tonight in Atlanta. The Hawks won in Boston last time out and did it by shooting 47% overall and 46% from beyond the arc. Trae Young had a monster night with 38-points on 14 of 33 shooting. Boston has enjoyed a huge advantage with points in the paint this series and we full expect them to exploit that advantage again in this potential elimination game. The Celtics rank 4th in PPG scored, 14th in team FG%, 6th in 3PT% and 7th in rebounding. The Hawks have similar offensive numbers ranking 3rd in PPG, 9th in FG%, 21st in 3PT% and 10th in rebounding. The big separator comes defensively with the Celtics ranking 5th or better in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% D. Atlanta allows the 26th most PPG, rank 25th in opponents FG% and 10th in 3PT%. Boston has done well when coming off a loss this season with a 18-9 SU overall record, 8-4 on the road. All 3 of the C’s wins in this series have come by 8 or more points. That trend continues here. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - We like the home team to get a double-digit win in this critical Game 5. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home in the regular season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this regular season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams have met seven times this season with the home team winning six and all but one of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis was up 7 points with just over 5 minutes to play in Game 4 and couldn’t close the game out. Memphis is 12-4 SU at home off a loss. Tonight, at home they will get it done. |
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04-25-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Clippers really struggled offensively in Game 4 at home without Kawhi Leonard and it’s not going to get any better tonight. Even with Russell Westbrook pouring in 37-points the Clippers as a team managed just 100. The average field goal attempts in an NBA game this season was 176 and these two teams have attempted 176 or less in all four games. In the regular season the Suns were the 9th slowest paced team in the league at 98.2 possessions per game. The Clippers were the 7th slowest at 97.9. Thus far in the Playoffs these two teams are averaging 96.3 possessions per game which ranks 12th and 13th out of 16 playoff teams. The Suns get a lot of attention for their offense but in reality it’s their defense that deserves the credit. They rank 6th in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 11th in 3PT% D. The Clippers weren’t on that level but still allowed just 113.1PPG which was 12th best in the NBA. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points but Leonard had 69 of those points. Without him here this game doesn’t get to 224. |
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04-24-23 | Bucks -5.5 v. Heat | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The winner of this series will be the team that is the healthiest. Right now, that team is the Bucks, even with Giannis questionable tonight. Our insiders suggest that he will play tonight, even if he doesn’t, we like Milwaukee. The Heat lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand and just lost Victor Oladipo to a knee injury. That doesn’t seem like a big injury, but it will have an impact on their depth at the guard position. Jimmy Butler also went down with a lower back injury, and we expect him to play tonight but he certainly won’t be 100%. Most importantly for this game is the fact that the Bucks are really good when coming off a loss with a 19-7 SU record and a +4.2PPG average MOV. The Bucks had the second-best road record in the NBA this season at 26-16 SU, +0.9PPG. Miami did have a solid home record of 27-14 SU during the regular season but their average +/- was just +1.2PPG. The Heat really struggled offensively against good teams as they averaged just 109.8PPG which was 28th in the league. Milwaukee is a much deeper team and will find a way to get this ‘must win’ on the road in Miami. |
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04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 3:30 PM ET - We were on the Warriors in Game 3 but will flip and side with the Kings in Game 4. This line is inflated and value currently sides with the Kings when you evaluate the lines from the first two games. Granted, Draymond Green is back but the move in the line is too drastic. Sacramento shot just 38% from the field in Game 3, 23% from Deep. Those numbers are uncharacteristically low for the Kings who were 1st in scoring this season 2nd in overall FG% shooting and 9th in 3PT%. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the series it was only natural for them to come back to Earth in Game 3. Now we have a solid number, a team that was 21-13 SU off a loss this season and had the 4th best average road differential at +2.1PPG. Sacramento was the better team all season long and have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings in Golden State. This will be closer than the oddsmakers think. |
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04-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - I think if you’ve followed us for any length of time you can guess how we feel about the Lakers and LeBron. If you haven’t, let’s just say we aren’t big fans. But that doesn't impact our handicapping and tonight we have to back the Lakers at home minus the short number. This series is tied 1-1 and Anthony Davis and LeBron haven’t even played that well. Back at home in Game 3 we expect big games from both of these Super Stars. Since the trade deadline the Lakers have been much better, especially defensively as they have allowed just 111.8PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. Over that same period of time, they have an average +/- of nearly +5PPG. Memphis has struggled on the road this season with a 16-25 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.7PPG. The Lakers don’t have a great home record of 24-18 SU but they do have a solid +/- of +3.3PPG. The home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings and we expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the points. |
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04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -115 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on NY Knicks -115 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30 PM ET - We love the situation here to back the home team Knickerbockers minus the short number. After winning Game 1 of this series, the Knicks lost badly in Game 2 by 17-points. In Game 1 most numbers were pretty even for both teams, but the Knicks enjoyed a +13 rebound night which was the difference. Game 2 saw the Cavs out-board the Knicks by 7 but the big separator was shooting as the Cavs hit 49% overall and 42% from beyond the arc. New York shot just 37% overall and 24% from Downtown. The Knicks will get great support at home tonight where they were 23-18 SU on the season with a +/- of +4.3PPG on the year. Cleveland was 20-21 SU away from home with an average margin of victory of +2.6PPG. If we look at the season series the Knicks won 3 straight after a loss way back in October. Two of those wins were by double-digits. The Cavs were just 4-9 ATS as a dog of less than +4.5 points, while the Knicks were 11-9 ATS as a favorite of -4.5-points or less. New York has won 10 of their last twelve at home and we expect them to win this game by a comfortable margin. |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - It’s well documented that Golden State is 11-32 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA, so while I’m surprised, they are down 0-2 I’m not shocked. The venue changes though and now the Warriors are at home where they had the 5th best average MOV at +8.0PPG with a 33-8 SU record. Consider this, the Warriors were 17th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.108PPP, but at home they rank 4th allowing 1.060PPP. Golden State was 9th overall in OEFF and had the 9th best overall OEFF at home but there was an improvement from 1.123PPP to 1.137PPP. Golden State has covered 4 of their last six games when coming off a loss and own a 17-3 SU home record when off a beat. These two teams have similar offensive statistics, but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. The Kings held an edge in FT’s at home 47-36 with +16 more attempts. That changes with the Warriors now the home team. Golden State has covered 37 of their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record. Even without Draymond Green we like the Warriors by double-digits in this one. |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics, even without Ja Morant in the lineup and we like the home team to get a win in Game 2 and even the series. In Game 1 the Lakers got some huge contributions from Hachimura and Reaves who chipped in 29 and 23 points respectively. The Lakers shot unusually well at 53% overall and 43% from beyond the arc which are both well above their season averages. Not to mention, the Grizzlies had the #1 ranked FG% defense and 9th best 3PT% defense in the league this year. Expect a return to normal in Game 2. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis is 35-7 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at over +10PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers are 21-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times during the regular season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings with the Lakers at home. Grab the home team! |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers played as well as they could in the opener and stole Game 1 in Phoenix. Tonight, we are betting the Suns will bounce back with a double-digit home win. Statistically the game was very even with the exception being offensive rebounding. The Clippers grabbed 15 O-Boards compared to just 6 for the Suns. These two teams were similar offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings this season with the Suns 14th and the Clippers 16th. In defensive efficiency the Suns ranked much better in defensive efficiency at 7th compared to the Clippers at 17th. The Suns got off to a slow start in G1 but expect a different mindset to open Game 2. Phoenix had the 7th best 3PT% numbers in the league this season without Kevin Durant playing many games for them and they should exploit a Clippers defense that was 19th in opponents 3PT% defense. Lay it with Phoenix. |
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04-17-23 | Warriors +1 v. Kings | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on Golden State Warriors -1 @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - We are not neglecting the fact Golden State was 11-31 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA. It looked to us like the Warriors went into Game 1 of this series with the mentality of just showing up would be good enough to win the game. The Kings on the other hand played at an incredible level throughout the game and were inspired by the energy from their home crowd. DeAaron Fox had a monster game for the Kings with 38-points and 5-assists. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 and went 14 of 14 from the free throw line. As a team the Kings shot 45% overall, 38% from 3 and made 26 of 32 FT’s. Despite playing at a high level the Warriors still had several great looks late in the game that could have sent it to OT. A Championship team like the Warriors will respond after that loss. Golden State has covered 4 of their last five games when coming off an “L”. These two teams have similar offensive statistics but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. We mentioned the Warriors poor regular season road number but also note the Kings are 4-7 SU with a negative +/- of -5.3PPG as a home underdog. Elite teams bounce back off a loss! Back the Warriors. |
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04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 128-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. LA Lakers, 3 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics and we like the home team to get a double-digit win in the opener. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times this season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings with the Lakers at home. Lay the points! |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings Pick'em vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - This is one of those fishy lines the oddsmakers will set to bait you into betting the media team such as the Warriors. Who isn’t betting the Warriors as a pick’em against the downtrodden Kings? The facts of the matter are this. The Kings have been the better team all season long and everyone has been waiting for the Warriors to ‘flip the switch’ and be great this season but it hasn’t happened. Golden State was 11-30 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA which was barely better than Orlando. Sacramento was 23-18 SU at home on the season with a +3.2PPG MOV. Both teams are good offensively with the Kings holding the #1 rated offensive efficiency numbers at 1.195PPP while the Warriors were 8th. Golden State held the season long advantage in defensive efficiency but they still ranked 18th compared to the Kings at 25th. The Kings may not win the series but we expect them to open up with a win in Game 1. |
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04-14-23 | Bulls +6 v. Heat | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +6 over Miami Heat, 7 PM ET - I have had a hard time trusting Miami all season long and I’m certainly not going to back them here. Its not a coincidence that after any extended period of time teams with Jimmy Butler eventually regress which is the current state in Miami. This Heat team had a net point differential of -0.3PPG on the season which was 21st in the league. Miami was 27-14 SU at home but their +/- on their home court was +1.2PPG which was 20th and only better than the Wolves of all the playoff teams. In comparison the Bulls had a average margin of victory of +1.3PPG overall which was 13th best in the league. On the road the Bulls +/- was -0.3PPG which was 7th best in the NBA. Chicago has won all three meetings this season and all 3 wins have come by 8+ points. Grab the points with Chicago and expect another game to the wire. |
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04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to grab the points with the Bulls in this match up and an outright win would not surprise us. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers on the season with the Raptors slightly better offensively, but the Bulls have an edge defensively. When it comes to home/road numbers we like the fact that the Bulls had the 7th best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at -0.3PPG. Toronto was 27-14 SU at home on the season but their average point differential was +4.7PPG which won’t get a cover for them here. After the All-Star break the Bulls have allowed just 107.9PPG which is the best number in the league. Chicago has also averaged 113.2PPG since the break which is significantly better than the 111.7PPG the Raptors have averaged. The Bulls have shot 50% since the ASB, Toronto has shot .464%. That ties in nicely with the Bulls having an advantage offensively with the 4th best overall shooting offense in the league going up against a Raptors D that is 27th in FG% defense. This is a great chance to back a defensive dog and a little moneyline action might be worth a shot in this one. |
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04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 226.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 226.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s start with the average NBA total points scored in a game this regular season which was 228.6 points per game. We don’t see this game being ‘average’ based on several factors. We will start with the Hawks defense that is 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.164-points per possession. That is the second worst of all the playoff teams (Kings are 25th). Since the All-Star break the Hawks have given up 121.7PPG. They rank 26th in PPG allowed, 25th in opponents FG%, but are 10th in 3PT%. The Hawks are also 19th in defensive rebounding. The Hawks beat teams by out-scoring them. Atlanta was 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.167PPP and were the 9th fastest paced team in the league. Since the break they have averaged 123.7PPG. Miami has gone through their struggles offensively this season, but they are clearly trending up to end the season. Prior to the All-Star break they were the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 108.3PPG. Since the break that average has jumped to 112.4PPG. In their last five games the Heat have the 1.251PPP which is the second highest average in the league behind the Warriors. Miami is known for their defense, but they haven’t been as good on that end of the court this season as they’ve been in past years. Case in point, last season the Heat were 5th in defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091PPP. This season the Heat are allowing 1.135PPP. It all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight. |
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04-09-23 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 108-113 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA NBA Top Play 10* New Orleans +3.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This game has meaning for both clubs and we like the advantage the Pelicans have in the schedule and how they are playing overall at this time. Minnesota is coming off a game yesterday and even though they have winning record at 8-5 SU when playing without rest, their average margin of victory in those games is 1-point, which is not enough for a cover here. New Orleans is on a solid 9-2 SU streak with several impressive wins on that resume including New York, Memphis, the Clippers twice and Denver. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last five road games. These two teams have some similar statistics offensively, but defensively the Pelicans hold the advantage and that will be the difference in today’s game. The Wolves +/- at home this season was 22nd in the league at +0.8PPG. The Pelicans had the 10th best road differential at 1.1PPG. This visiting team has covered 7 of the last eight meetings in this series and 8 of the last ten. Grab the points and the Pels. |
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04-08-23 | Blazers v. Clippers UNDER 230 | Top | 125-136 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 230 Portland Trailblazers @ LA Clippers, 4 PM ET - Both teams have games again tomorrow so it’s highly unlikely they are going to let this game turn into a fast-paced game. Especially the Clippers who still have seed positioning to play for AND need to manage minutes for older players such as Kawhi. This line is clearly too high as the Blazers just faced a Spurs team that is one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA and one of the worst defensively and that total was 227. The Clippers are the 7th slowest paced team in the league and are around average in defensive efficiency. Portland has 14 players on their injury report as of today and are basically trotting out a G-league team. The Blazers offense has been hit hardest as they’ve scored 96 or less points in 3 of their last eight games and outside of one high scoring game against the Spurs, have averaged 101PPG in 7 of their last 8. With the Clippers content to get a win without exerting themselves we can’t see this game getting into the 230’s. |
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04-07-23 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 228.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 228.5 Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - This is going to be a glorified AAU game and we don’t expect either team to play any defense in this one. The Rockets have given up 120 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and 130+ in three of those. Charlotte has been equally as bad allowing 120 or more in 4 straight games and an average of 126PPG in those four games. Houston ranks 28th in points allowed per game at 118.8, 22nd in opponents FG% and 28th in 3PT% defense. Charlotte ranks 22nd in PPG allowed at 117.5 per game, 19th in FG% defense and 13th in 3PT% D. The most critical defensive metric though is defensive efficiency as the Rockets are 29th in the NBA allowing 1.197PPP, while the Hornets are 20th at 1.158PPP. Charlotte has been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA all season long and the Rockets have picked up their tempo in their last five games. With nothing left to play for these two teams won’t expend any energy on the defensive end of the court and it will lead to a high scoring game. |
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04-06-23 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 129-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - This game has a playoff feel as both teams could use a win here as they jockey for a better playoff position. Miami needs a win to lock in a spot in the postseason party and avoid a play-in situation. With a win the other night over Boston the Sixers still have a shot at catching the Celtics as the 2nd seed. It starts with defense for both teams as they rank 8th and 9th in defensive efficiency ratings. Both teams play slow too, with Miami ranking as the 2nd slowest team in the NBA at 96 possessions per game, the Sixers are the 4th slowest. Philly is one of the most efficient offenses in the league but Miami is 25th. A big reason why the 76ers rank so high in OEFF is Joel Embiid. Embiid has struggled against the Heat averaging just 21.3PPG in the last six meetings which is well below his season average of 33.2PPG. In the two meetings this season between these two teams they’ve produced 215 and 200 total points. We expect another Under here. |
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04-05-23 | Kings v. Mavs -5 | Top | 119-123 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost but will come right back with a play against them again here. This will be the Kings 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days. Last night they unexpectedly played hard against the Pelicans but reports are that head coach Mike Brown came down on them hard after a loss in their previous game. Now that he made his point, and they have nothing to play for, don’t expect them to put forth a max-effort here. Dallas is in desperation mode after 3 straight losses to playoff teams from the East. The Mavs are currently in a battle with the Thunder for the 10th and final play-in spot in the West with just 3 games remaining. These two teams have met twice already this season splitting both games played in Sac-Town. Luka and Kyrie are both expected to play on Wednesday night, and even though they haven’t meshed on the court at the same time they are still two dynamic players that can carry their team in this do-or-die situation. |
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04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 121-103 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This game has huge implications for the Pelicans who are in a battle for the 7th seed in the West, while the Kings sit comfortably in 3rd. Granted the Kings mathematically have a shot to catch Memphis for the 2nd seed, but they can’t get caught by Phoenix and the 3 seed may be a better option in the West. The Pelicans on the other hand would host as a 7 seed and would have a clear advantage come playoff time. That’s not the only reason we like New Orleans here as they are playing well right now having won 7 of their last 8 games. That stretch of success includes three quality wins over the Clippers (twice) and Nuggets. The Pelicans suffered through several key injuries this season but are now mostly healthy and playing at the level everyone predicted they could play at. Since the All-Star break the Pel are allowing the least amount of points in the NBA at 108.3PPG and have a +/- of +4PPG. The Kings have been a great story all season, but their lack of defense will be their demise in the playoffs. The Kings rank 23rd for the season in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.167PPP. Since the All-Star break Sacramento is giving up 120.3PPG which is the 25th most in the NBA. Even with significant injuries the Pelicans still hold the 8th best average net point differential at home this season at +5.5PPG with a 25-13 SU record. The home teams has won 4 of the last five meetings and we are betting that trend continues here. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut UNDER 133.5 | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
#711/712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – San Diego State vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We were on the Under in the SDSU vs FAU game on Saturday and came up short in the 72-71 final. Both teams shot very well from deep combining to make 18 of 40 three point attempts (45%). They also averaged 1.11 PPP and 1.12 PPP which was well above what those 2 defenses gave up this season (SDSU 0.90 PPP allowed / FAU 0.95 PPP allowed). They also combined to attempt 43 FT’s on the night. All of that led to a higher scoring game than expected. The UConn vs Miami game stayed Under by nearly 20 points (131 points scored and total was 150ish). The Huskies defense has been fantastic during this impressive tourney run shutting down a number of teams that have much better overall offenses than the SDSU team they will face on Monday night. UConn allowed 59 points to Miami who ranks as the 6th most efficient offense in the nation and averages 80 PPG. The game prior to that the Huskies faced a Gonzaga offense that ranks #1 nationally in efficiency and held them to 54 points which is 34 points below their season average of 88 PPG (#1 nationally). Now they face a San Diego State offense that ranks 68th nationally in offensive efficiency and has averaged just 67 PPG in the NCAA tourney. We expect the Aztecs won’t reach 60 points in this game. On the other end of the court, SDSU’s strength is obviously on the defensive end where they rank 4th nationally in efficiency and 3rd in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to allowing FAU to hit 71 points, the Aztecs had given up an average of just 57 PPG in the tourney. The Owls were able to be successful from 3 point land in that game (44%) but leading into that one, the San Diego State defense had allowed opponents to make only 17% of their 3’s in this tourney. They rank 3rd nationally on the season defending the arc which could be a problem for a Connecticut team that relies heavily on the 3 point shot. The Huskies have faced 4 fast paced teams in the Big Dance and the one slower paced team they played (St Mary’s) the 2 teams totaled 125 points. Both of these teams rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo so this shouldn’t be a fast paced game. UConn’s offense put up 72 on Saturday vs a Miami defense that ranks 99th in efficiency and prior to that they faced a fast paced Gonzaga team whose defense ranks 73rd in efficiency. They take a big step up here taking on one of the top defensive teams in the country. We don’t expect UConn to reach 70 in this game and we already mentioned that SDSU will have a tough time getting to 60. Under is the play in the National Championship Game. |
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04-02-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets OVER 234 | Top | 110-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 234 Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets, 8:40 PM ET - You will want to watch the pregame injury report and confirm Nikola Jokic is in the lineup for the Nuggets before making this wager. The Warriors are going to play small ball here and use Draymond Green at the Center position. That means they are planning a fast-paced game and will push tempo. Golden State is the fastest paced team in the league at 101.7 possessions per game. They are 3rd in scoring at 118.3PPG. They should score at will against this Nuggets defense that is barely above average in defensive efficiency and rank 20th in opponents FG% against. Denver doesn’t play fast but they are highly efficient offensive with the 3rd best OEFF rating in the NBA at 1.180PPP. Golden State has historically been a great defensive team but that hasn’t been the case this season as they check in as the 19th worst defensive efficiency team allowing 1.149PPP. The Nuggets will put up points with their 10th scoring offense and the #1 ranked FG% unit at 50.6% and 2nd ranked 3PT% offense at 38.4%. In the two clashes between these two teams this season they have produced total points of 251 twice. We expect another high scoring game today. |
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04-02-23 | 76ers +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - There is one negative with this bet and that’s the fact the Bucks are coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Celtics and we typically shy away from this type of situation. We will make an exception here as we get a live dog in Philly that is every bit as good as Milwaukee and can certainly come out of the East. Milwaukee has a 30-8 SU home record this season but the 76ers are 23-15 SU away. The Sixers own the best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at +3.8PPG. They have the best offensive efficiency rating on the road and 11th best DEFF. Milwaukee has an average +/- at home of +6.8PPG but that should be higher based on their SU record. We like the fact that the Bucks have struggled recently with the good teams they’ve played with a 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. When facing one of the top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference the Bucks have a +0.4PPG differential, the 76ers are better at +1.8PPG. 4 of the last five meetings have been decided by 3-points or less, all five have been decided by 8-points or less. We expect another close game and will grab the points. |
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04-01-23 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 227 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:30PM ET - These two teams just met last Tuesday in L.A. with the game finishing with 241 total points. The O/U number on the game was 225 so we are getting a little extra value here. There were a few anomalies in that game as the Pelicans shot extremely well at 53% overall and they made 21 of 34 3-pointers or 62%. Those percentages were well above their season averages of 48% FG% and 36.3% 3PT%. The Clippers also had an above average shooting night at 52% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. Again, both of those numbers are well above the Clippers 47.6% FG% and 38.2% 3PT%. The Clippers are about average in defensive efficiency at 1.143-points per possession allowed while the Pelicans are 5th best. In their most recent 5-games the Pels have the best PPP allowed at 1.019PPP. Prior to the hot shooting game in the previous meeting the 4 clashes prior between these two teams all resulting in 219 or less points. Bet UNDER here. |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 38 m | Show |
#701/702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 132 Points – Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This match up is very similar to FAU’s Sweet 16 game vs Tennessee. We were on the Under in that game (129) and the 2 combined for just 117 points. We see a similar outcome for this game. SDSU and Tennessee compare very favorably in offensive efficiency (not a strength of either) and defensive efficiency (both top 5 in the nation). They are also almost identical in tempo with both being slow paced. The Aztecs defense has been great all season but they’ve stepped it up another notch in the Big Dance where they’ve allowed an average of just 57 PPG and held 3 of their 4 opponents to under 60 points. The only team that topped 60 points on SDSU was Alabama who averaged 82 PPG (7th nationally) but only had 64 vs the Aztecs. We were on the Over in SDSU’s most recent game vs a very efficiency Creighton offense who wants to push the ball and that game ended 57-56. FAU’s defense is underrated. They rank 29th nationally in defensive efficiency and 14th in eFG% allowed. The Owls have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 70 points or less and 3 of those opponents were fast paced teams (Memphis, KSU, and Farleigh Dickinson). The one slow paced team they faced was Tennessee and we mentioned how that game turned out. We don’t expect many 3 pointers in this game which will help the Under. FAU likes to shoot 3’s but they are facing a San Diego State defense thar ranks 2nd nationally defending the arc. In this tournament alone, the Aztecs have allowed opponents to make only 17% of their triples! On the other end of the court, San Diego State is not a great 3 point shooting team and they don’t shoot many (just 28% of their points come from deep – 277th nationally). The Final 4 is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston which is a huge NFL stadium. It’s often very tough to shoot in a venue like this as the backdrop is completely different than what teams are used to. This will be the 14th basketball game ever played at NRG Stadium and 8 of the first 13 went Under (62%) by an average of 6 points. Low scoring grinder here and we like the Under. |
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03-31-23 | Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 232.5 LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - If the Playoffs where to start today this would be the 7/8 matchup play in game. In a playoff like atmosphere for both teams we like the defenses to rise to the occasion. Prior to the All-Star Break the Lakers were 25th in points allowed per game, giving up 118.2 per. The Timberwolves were better allowing 115.8PPG. Los Angeles has improved dramatically since the trade deadline and are giving up just 111PPG which is 6th best in the league. Minnesota has slipped slightly allowing 116.5PPG. Both teams were scoring more prior to the break too. The Lakers rank 11th in defensive efficiency on the season while the Wolves are 10th giving up just 1.139-points per possession. Both teams prefer to play up-tempo, but recently (in their last five games) each team has slowed significantly in pace of play. Both teams are near average or below in offensive efficiency. These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 212 and 213. This game won’t be that low but it will be around 222. |
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