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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -8 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Warriors were HUMILIATED in the last meeting and teams of this caliber will be extra motivated and focused here. Golden State was down 50 in the 3rd quarter of game 5 and were never in it. Let’s not forget the Warriors were 31-10 SU at home with the best average margin of victory at +9.9PPG. GST is also 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +/- of +15PPG and own a 30-point win a few games ago versus this same Grizzlies team. Golden State was 12-4 SU off a loss this season when playing at home and are 9-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points this season. The experience and home court advantage will be too much for the Grizzlies to overcome. |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET Thursday - The 76ers played well at home in Games 3 & 4 with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. Then Miami flexed their muscle in Game 5 at home in a blowout. We are betting the 76ers don’t shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. In Game 5 they shot just 36% overall and 28% from 3. Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. We don’t expect Miami to shoot as well as they did in the previous game when they hit 54% of their FG attempts and scored 120-points. The field goal attempts for this series has been unusually low with 171, 162, 144, 150 and 169. Don’t forget, league average during the regular season was around 176. |
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05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET Wednesday - We are betting this game will be an old fashion Eastern Conference defensive battle from start to finish. This teams don’t like each other, and it’s elevated both teams play, especially on the defensive end of the court. The first three games of this series all stayed Under the Total and Game 4 was on pace to stay Under again but then the Celtics exploded for 69 points in the second half on 63% shooting. Al Horford for the Celtics “backpacked” his team in the second half with a career playoff high of 30-points. We can’t see the 37-year-old duplicating that type of performance. The Bucks shot just 41% in Game 4 and coach Bud for some unexplained reason played defensive minded George Hill over Bobby Portis which clearly hurt the Bucks offense. In the two games played in Boston the Bucks struggled with their shooting at 43.5% as a team, well below their season average of 46.8%. During the regular season the Bucks were a disappointing 13th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.118-points per possession, but they played a large portion of the season without Brook Lopez. In the Playoffs the Bucks have the #1 ranked DEFF allowing just .998PPP. These two teams have played slow in the postseason with the Celtics ranking 10th of all 16 playoff teams in pace, the Bucks rank 12th. These two teams both end up in the 90’s in this one! |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET Tuesday - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Games 3 & 4 at home with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. We are betting the 76ers cannot continue to shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable as Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami also had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly but should find their stroke again back in South Beach. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. Those 3-point statistics are unusually strange considering the Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami back at home. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-11 SU record, 10-5 SU at home. The Heat are 34-12 SU at home this season, 5-0 SU in the playoffs. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 5. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +1.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Game 4 Monday 7:30 PM ET - This game presents another “Zig-Zag” opportunity, so we’ll back the Celtics in this pivotal Game 4. With a win the Celtics can even the series and reclaim home court advantage. Good or bad shooting has played the biggest role in this series and the Celtics are coming off a horrible shooting Game 3 and we expect a correction here. Boston shot just 37% overall and 27% in Game 3 after shooting 47% from beyond the Arc in Game 2. Jayson Tatum (averages 26.9PPG, 8RPG) will bounce back after a poor game in which he scored 10 points on 4 of 19 shooting (0-6 from 3). Even with their All-Star and best player (Tatum) struggling the Celtics still played the Bucks to a 2-point game. Giannis was absolutely incredible in Game 3 with 42-points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists but we doubt he can replicate that performance here. Jrue Holiday contributed 25-point in the G3 win but it took him 30 field goal attempts to get it which isn’t a good sign. Boston has a roster capable of winning it all this season and they’ll bounce back off the previous game loss. The Celtics are 21-12 SU off a loss this season, 10-7 away from home. |
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05-08-22 | Heat +2 v. 76ers | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +2 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Game 3 with the return of Joel Embiid in their 20-point home win, which makes this a 2-1 series in favor of Miami. Embiid didn’t have a big statistical impact with 18-points and 11-rebounds and he’s clearly not 100% with a bad thumb and orbital fracture. The 76ers had a great shooting Game 3 at home with 48% overall and 48% from beyond the 3-point line. Maxey and Green had unusually great games with a combined 42-points and 12 of 15 shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable and will revert back to the norm. Miami also had an abysmal shooting performance in G3 of 35% overall and 23% from 3. The Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami in this one. The Heat aren’t intimidated playing on the road as they finished the regular season 24-17 SU with a +/- of +3.4PPG. The 76ers were slightly above average in terms of average margin of victory at +3.1PPG when playing at home this season. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-10 SU record, 10-5 SU away from home. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 4. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -117 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -117 over Boston Celtics, 3:30 PM ET - Based on the line in the opening game of this series this number should be slightly higher than it is so we’ll gladly take the value and the Bucks off a loss, back at home. Specifically in Game 2, the Celtics had a remarkably well shooting night from beyond the arc at 47% or 20 of 43. Those are surprising numbers considering Boston was 14th in the league in 3PT% at 35.5%. Granted, the Bucks aren’t great defending the 3-point line (35.6%) but the 47% in Game 2 was more of an aberration than a norm. Speaking of 3-pointers, the Bucks were the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 36.6% but in Game 2 they hit just 17% or 3 of 18. That’s not going to happen again with the Bucks back on their home court. Milwaukee was 22-11 SU off a loss this season, 13-7 at home. Let’s not forget the Bucks are 12-2 SU their last 14 home playoff games dating back to last season and the Celtics are a young team playing a huge game on the road. This is a classic Zig-Zag spot to back the home team Bucks! |
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05-06-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 211 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 198 total points, Game 2 ended with 222 but based on the field goal attempts, they both should have finished Under the Totals. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 171 field goals, in Game 2 it dropped to 162. League average this season was 176 which contributed to roughly 220PPG. The 76ers offense has struggled without potential MVP Joel Embiid in the lineup for the first two games and he’s been ruled out again for Game 3. The 76ers have shot under 22% from beyond the arc in the series and 44% overall from the field. Miami has had two solid shooting nights on their home floor at 47% overall but expect some struggles on the road in this pivotal Game 3. Philadelphia was the 7th best defense in terms of points allowed at home this season (106.8) while the Heat were the 2nd best team in the league in points allowed on the road at 105.6PPG. Miami was the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season, Philadelphia was 6th slowest and in the playoffs both have been slower yet. This game sets up for an Under wager! |
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05-04-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - These two teams combined for 235 total points in Game 1 but did it by taking just 120 field goal attempts. That’s insane! The league average for FGA in an average game is 176 this season. The Mavs averaged 1.20-points per possession, Phoenix was even better yet at 1.30PPP. What makes that especially unique is the fact that these two teams finished top 6 in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Phoenix was 3rd in the league allowing just 1.074PPP, Dallas gave up just 1.094PPP. The Mavericks were the slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season while the Suns were 8th fastest but, in the postseason, they’ve preferred a much slower tempo averaging 93.4 possessions per game. We can assume Dallas will shoot better than the 41% they hit in Game 1 but it is highly unlikely the Suns shoot 64% from the field and 50% from deep in Game 2. Granted Game 1 went Over because of the Suns shooting but the three regular season meetings between these two teams all finished with 216 or less points. The Under is the play here. |
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05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 227.5 | Top | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 PM ET - Game 1 of this series is a clear indicator of how this game is going to play out too as the two teams combined for 188 total field goals which is 12 more than league average. The Warriors had 106 possessions in Game 1, Memphis had 104 and both teams attempted a shot within the first 13.8 seconds of their offensive possession. Those numbers dramatically suggest another Over here when you consider the league averages for the entire season of 99 possessions per game and on average it took teams 14.5 seconds to get a shot up. Again, looking at the baseline of the regular season we see all NBA games finished with roughly 220 total points. This number is barely higher than that and it’s not like either team shot insanely well in Game 1 and they got to 233 total points. Golden State shot 47% on the season and hit 48% in G1. Memphis shot 46% for the year but only hit 43% in the opener and still scored 116 points. The oddsmaker have adjusted this number up slightly compared to Game 1 but it’s not enough. BET OVER! |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - Let’s not over-react to Game 1 of this series and predict the Bucks are winning this series. Did the Bucks play extremely well in the opener, or did Boston play that poorly? We feel it was the latter and the Celtics under-performed. Don’t forget Boston is 30-7 SU their last thirty-seven games and were the best team in the NBA the second half of the season. In Game 1, the Celtics really struggled, shooting only 33.3% from the field, which is WELL below their season average of 46.6%. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were especially bad, shooting 32.3%, and combining for just 33-points. In the four games against the Nets those two combined to average 52-points per game. For the season the Celtics were 30-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.4PPG which was the 5th best average MOV in the NBA this season. When coming off a loss the Celtics were 20-12 SU on the year with a +/- of +6.3PPG, 10-5 SU at home. Granted, Milwaukee was very good on the road this season at 27-17 SU but given the circumstances of: no Khris Middleton and his 20PPG average, along with Boston in a must-win situation, we have to lay the points here. |
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05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on: Phoenix Suns 5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10 PM ET - We felt going into the Playoffs that the Suns were the team to beat. In this opening series game we like them to flex their muscle at home and produce a double-digit win over the Mavs. Dallas is 23-18 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +.03 which is clearly respectable. The Phoenix Suns though were 32-9 SU at home this season with the 4th best average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. In the two regular season meetings in Phoenix the Suns were favored by -8 and -8.5 points so we are getting slight value with them here in this matchup. Phoenix swept the 3-game season series with all three wins coming by 7 or more points. Defensively these teams are eerily similar to each other ranking 3rd and 6th in defensive efficiency but offensively the Suns hold a big advantage with the 5th best OEFF rating compared to the Mavs 14th. Dallas ranks 18th and 19th in overall FG% and 3PT% while the Suns are the best overall shooting team in the NBA and rank 9th in 3-point percentage. The Mavericks don’t rebound the ball well with the 24th ranked offensive rebounding unit in the league so second chances are going to be hard to come by. Phoenix wins this game big. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors -125 v. Grizzlies | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -120 @ Memphis Grizzlies, Sunday 3:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are about to step up to the big time with a playoff series against an experienced playoff team that is built to win Championships. Memphis got past a young Minnesota team that blew several second half double-digit leads because of their youth and inexperience. That’s not about to happen here against the Warriors. Memphis beat the Warriors the last two meetings of the regular season but most recently the Warriors were without Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green. On Jan 11th these teams met in Memphis with the Grizzlies winning 116-108 but Golden State was without Green and Thompson was just coming back and only played 19-minutes. The Warriors looked like a serious contender in their near series sweep of the Nuggets in opening round with an offense that averaged 1.219-points per possession. Golden State shot 54.5% in the series overall and 45.1% from Deep in the opening round. Rest will be a key factor here also as the Warriors have 3+ days off, while Memphis just played Friday night in Minnesota in their emotional win. Golden State is 7-1 ATS their last eight games when playing with this type of rest while the Grizzlies have failed to cover 4 straight as a Dog. Speaking of being a dog here, why is the #2 Seed and home dog in this game? That’s right, the oddsmakers are telling us something here, bet the road favorite! Value here with the low money line rather than laying the bucket so we'll grab the money line here! |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 229 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 229 Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 9 PM ET - Three of the five meetings in this series have stayed Under 229 total points with the most recent game finishing with 220. Over the course of the regular season the Grizzlies attempted 94 field goals per game while the Wolves attempted 90 per game. In this series those attempts have dropped significantly with the Grizz taking 88.2 FGA per game, the Wolves are getting up just 81.6. The five games themselves have averaged 224.6 total points scored per game. Both teams are also shooting below their season field goal percentages in this series with Memphis shooting 45.1%, Minnesota is hitting 44.1%. With the pressure on for both teams we don’t expect shots to fall in this elimination game and the defenses will step up. Bet UNDER. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 209.5 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 38 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - With the Mavs holding a 3-2 advantage in this series the pressure is on for both teams which will lead to a lower scoring game. With that said we expect the defensive energy to be high for both teams. Pace is critical here and these two teams are the two lowest possession teams currently in the Playoffs as the Mavs have 365 total possessions, Utah sits with 368. These teams averaged 96 (Dallas) and 98 (Utah) possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging just 92. Not only that, but the Mavs have, on average, taken 16.8 seconds per field goal attempt which is slowest among all Playoff teams. Utah is faster at 14.7 seconds per FGA, but they’ve struggled to score as a byproduct of the Mavs perimeter defense and their lack of 3-point makes and attempts. Utah is reliant on 3-pointers with the 2nd most 3-point attempts per game during the regular season at 39.8 per game. They made 35.9% of those 3-point attempts during the regular season but have made just 30.7 % in the five games of this series. These two teams were both top 10 in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing less than .970-points per possession. The first game of this series in had a posted Total of 208.5 so this number is still slightly higher than what Vegas originally projected. The Jazz offense has really struggled against this Dallas defense scoring 104 or less in 4 of the five games and now their best offensive player in Donovan Mitchell is either out or less than 100% with a pulled hamstring. |
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04-27-22 | Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 217.5 Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - The Bulls offense has really struggled in this series and now they will be without a key piece as Zach LaVine is in health and safety protocol. A combination of great Bucks defense and poor Bulls offense has led to Chicago scoring just .94-points per possession in this series which is the lowest among all playoff teams. Milwaukee hasn’t been much better at 1.07PPP which is 13th worst out of 16 teams. In this series the Bulls have shot 39.8% overall and just 28% from beyond the arc. That’s significant considering the Bucks don’t defend the 3-point line well at all ranking 19th in the NBA in that defensive category. Milwaukee has overcome the loss of Khris Middleton with two straight huge games by Grayson Allan scoring 22-points on 8 of 12 shotting form the field including 5 of 7 from deep in Game 3. Then Allan put up 27-points on 10 of 12 shooting including 6 of 7 from downtown. The Bulls will make adjustments here and you cannot expect him to continue shooting that well here. Chicago has scored 95 or less in 3 of the four games and it’s going to be tough to score here without LaVine. The Under is the bet here. |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat –6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET Tuesday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat's defense has been even better in this series by holding the Hawks to 1.030PPP which is the second-best number in the postseason behind the Bucks. Miami has held Hawks All-Star guard Trae Young to a pair of his worst offensive showings all season long. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG during the regular season and have won both home games versus the Hawks by double-digits in this series. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG during the reg ssn. Miami has covered 7 of the last eight on this court against the Hawks. |
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04-25-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 213 | Top | 77-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 213 Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - With this series even at 2 games apiece this becomes a huge swing game in the winners favor to advance. With that said we expect the defensive energy to be high for both teams. Pace is critical here and these two teams are the two lowest possession teams currently in the Playoffs. Not only that, but the Mavs have, on average, taken 16.8 seconds per field goal attempt which is slowest among all Playoff teams. Utah is faster at 14.7 seconds per FGA, but they’ve struggled to score as a byproduct of the Mavs perimeter defense and their lack of 3-point makes and attempts. Utah is reliant on 3-pointers with the 2nd most 3-point attempts per game during the regular season at 39.8 per game. They made 35.9% of those 3-point attempts during the regular season but have made just 324 % in the four games of this series. These two teams were both top 10 in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing less than .970-points per possession. The first two games of this series in Dallas had Totals posted of 208.5 and 206 so grab the extra value with the current number and bet UNDER! |
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04-24-22 | Heat -120 v. Hawks | Top | 110-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -120 over Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - We are going to keep this one pretty simple in terms of analysis and back the Heat in Game 4. In the first two games of the series the Heat outscored the Hawks by a combined +34-points and then lost Game 3 by 1-point late. Miami has clearly been the dominant team in the series and are one play away from being up 3-0. The Heat have averaged 1.160-points per possession in the series, the Hawks have averaged 1.050PPP which is the 3rd worst number of all the teams in the first round. Let’s also point out the Heat were the 4th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA during the regular season allowing just 1.080PPP compared to the Hawks who ranked 26th worst, giving up 1.130PPP. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 14-7 SU record and even if Lowry can’t go they’ll get this road win and a commanding lead in the series. |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 118-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 232.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - These two teams were 1st and 3rd in pace of play during the regular season at 100.3 and 100.9 possessions per game. Not only did they play fast, but they were also efficient offensively ranking 5th and 7th in OEFF at 1.144-points per possession and 1.147PPP. During the regular season those two key factors translated to nearly 116PPG for each team. In the Playoffs though, they’ve continued to play fast but their offensive numbers have dipped to 1.126PPP for the Grizzlies and 1.046PPP for the Wolves. What these two teams did especially well during the regular season was play defense when either at home or on the road. Minnesota owned the 7th best road defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing 1.074-points per possession, Memphis was 9th on the road in DEFF giving up 1.109PPP. Seven of the 12 quarters in this series has seen 55 or less points being scored. Both teams struggled shooting the ball in Game 3 as the Wolves hit just 39% of their attempts, Memphis made 42%. This series has gotten chippy and will have an intense defensive attitude in Game 4 which will lead to an easy UNDER! |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - Much has been made of Kevin Durant and his struggles in this series, but that is about to change here. Statistically, we are betting things return to normal for KD back in the friendly confines of Brooklyn. Durant shot just 9 of 24, 1 of 5 from 3 in Game 1. He then struggled in Game 2 by going 4 of 17 from the field and 1 of 2 from Deep. On the season he’s a 51.8% shooter from the filed and 38.3% from beyond the arc. Let’s also consider the Nets have average 1.160-points per possession in the two games even with his shooting woes. Boston has played extremely well in the first two games but now go on the road and face a veteran team in a must win situation. Don’t be misled by the Nets home numbers this season as Kyrie missed most of the home games due to Covid mandates. Brooklyn did go 7-2 SU their last nine home games and every one of those wins came by 5 or more points. We are banking Kyrie and KD will make a series of this yet and it has to start here. Lay it! |
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04-22-22 | Bucks v. Bulls +3 | Top | 111-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +3 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Bucks look like the Playoff Bucks from a year ago where teams have made adjustments to stop their offensive flow, but coach Bud doesn’t make any counter moves. Now the Bucks need to find a way to win without their second-best scorer Khris Middleton who is out with a knee injury. The Bulls struggled in the opener managing just 86-points in Game 1 on 32.3% shooting. In Game 2 the Bulls found a rhythm on offense adn shot 49.4% from the field. After struggling in Game 1, DeMar DeRozan bounced back in Game 2 by hitting 16 of 31 (51.6%) and scored a career playoff-high 41 points. In Game 1, the Bulls' “Big 3” of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine went 21 of 71 (29.6%) from the field. In Game 2 those three players were 33 of 62 (53.2%). Milwaukee is going to miss Middleton’s scoring and we don’t see anyone stepping up to fill the void. In Game 1 it wasn’t a case of the Bucks playing great, as we touched on, the Bulls couldn’t buy a basket. Milwaukee won a close game with Middleton going 5 of 20 from the field for 11-points. Chicago shot 48.5% at home this season and the atmosphere/energy will be high tonight in Game 3. The Bulls were 27-14 SU at home in the regular season with a +/- of +2.4PPG. Grab the points with the home dog. |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - Both games have gone Over the number but we like this one to stay Under. In Game 2 the Warriors had another incredible shooting night at 55% overall and 42% from Deep (17 of 40) which helped that game go Over the number. These two teams had an insanely high scoring 3rd quarter in Game 2 of 74-points and we don’t see them duplicating that type of number here. Golden State won’t shoot as well on the road as they did at home where they made 33 of 75 3-pointers in the first two games. We doubt Jordan Poole can continue his torrid shooting on the road too as he’s accounted for 10 of 17 made 3-pointers for the Warriors. Golden State has averaged 1.300-points per possession in the two games which is not sustainable and significantly higher than the league average of 1.130PPP, which is what Denver is averaging. Denver has scored 107 and 106 points and we don’t see much changing here as the Warriors defense has been one of the best in the league all season long allowing 1.070-points per possession (2nd). Golden State was 14th in pace of play this season, Denver was 19th so neither wants to play fast. In fact, in the two playoff games these two these two teams have both averaged 15.2-seconds to get a shot up which is in the bottom half of all the teams left in the post season. Both games in this series have gone Over, yet the Total remains the same? Bet UNDER! |
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04-20-22 | Bulls +10 v. Bucks | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +10 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:30 PM ET - We are betting Game 2 is going to be a dog fight and we like the double-digits with the Bulls. Game 1 of this series was ugly to say the least. The Bucks averaged .93-points per possession in the opener, the Bulls .85PPP. Those numbers were well below both teams' season averages of 1.14PPP (Bucks) and 1.12PPP (Bulls). The Bulls had an especially bad shooting night at 32% which is WELL below their season average of 48% which was the 3rd best shooting percentage in the NBA this season. Chicago also hit 36.9% from beyond the arc in the regular season but hit just 7 of 37 from deep or 19%. The Bucks didn’t shoot overly well either but not nearly as bad as Chicago. The Bucks were one of the worst home favorites in the NBA this season and their +/- at home wasn’t great at +4.2PPG which is down from +8.9PPG a year ago. Milwaukee was 14-24 ATS at home laying points this season with an average margin of victory in those games of +4.9PPG. Consider this, the Bulls have been double-digit dogs just two times this season and they are 2-0 ATS. Chicago has covered 8 of the last eleven here and will keep this game close throughout. |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - It’s do-or-die here for the Grizzlies after the opening series loss at home in Game 1. The Grizzlies didn’t look interested from the opening tip and thought they were going to cruise to a victory. The Wolves started hot, gained confidence, and played well throughout. We don’t see Minnesota shooting 50% in Game 2 or outrebounding the Grizzlies by a +11 margin. Minny shot well above their season average from beyond the arc, Memphis shot well below. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-11 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-12 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. The Wolves were 21-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-4 SU at home off a loss this season. |
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04-18-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These two teams combined for 230 total points in the opener but 70 of those points came in the 4th quarter. Golden State shot exceptionally well in the game at 52% overall and 46% from Deep. The Warriors scored 1.28 points per possession which was much higher than their season average of 1.126PPP. The pace of play wasn’t overly fast as the Warriors had 95 possessions to the Nuggets 94 which are both less than league average. Over the course of the regular season the NBA average for a team to shoot on offense was 14.5 second and the Warriors took 15.8 seconds per possession, the Nuggets were 14.7. Denver was near their season average for offensive efficiency at 1.14-points per possession. Golden State finished the regular season as one of the best overall defenses in the NBA ranking top 5 in most key categories. Denver was 10th in 3-point percentage defense so don’t expect the Warriors to light it up from deep again with the Nuggets making some adjustments. This game stays below 220. |
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04-18-22 | Jazz -5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -5 @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - I am going contrarian here as the numbers tell us its not time to use the Zig-Zag theory in this series. The Jazz got off to a slow start in Game 1 with an offensive efficiency rating or .91 in the 1st quarter which is well below their season average of 1.160PPP. For the game the Jazz shot 43% as a team overall and 32% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 47.1% and 36% which both rank in the top 11 of the NBA. Utah has had some issues with closing out games recently but the confidence gained in the opener should carry over here. Dallas averaged 1.010PPP in Game 1 which is lower than their season statistics but it’s still higher than anticipated with the absence of Luka Doncic. The Mavs will struggle to score again in this contest as Brunson and Dinwiddie can’t carry a team like Luka does. As we mentioned previously, the Jazz are one of five teams with offensive and defensive efficiency numbers good enough to win it all this year. Back them here as a short favorite. |
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04-17-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 229.5 | Top | 86-93 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30 PM ET - We have two of the better offenses squaring off here with a Bucks team that is the 3rd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.152-points per possession, while the Bulls are 13th at 1.132PPP. The Bucks have slipped defensively this season to 13th in DEFF allowing 1.118PPP while the Bulls are 22nd giving up 1.136PPP. The Bucks are 3rd in points scored per game, 12th in shooting and the 5th best 3-point shooting percentage. Chicago is 13th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 4th in 3PT%. Neither team defends the 3-point line well at all with the Bulls ranking 27th in 3PT% defense, the Bucks are 19th giving up 35.6%. Milwaukee is the home team here and they will dictate tempo which should be fast. The Bucks are 6th in pace of play on the season with 99.9 possessions per game, since the All-Star break though they have played faster yet at 101.4 possessions per game. In the three most recent meetings between these two teams (since March 4th) they have combined for 230, 234 and 233 total points. They should get to 230+ here too. |
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04-17-22 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 91-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 1 PM ET Sunday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat put up those impressive statistics with a roster that was hit harder than most with Covid issues. The Hawks have won two emotional games in the play-in contest and will have a hard time getting up for a third big game in a row. Not to mention they lost their starting center Capela versus the Cavs. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%. These two teams met on April 8th in a meaningless game for the Heat (had sown up the #1 seed) and a purposeful game for Atlanta, yet the Heat won by 4-points. This time around it’s going to be much worse, and we call for a BLOWOUT! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. Miami has covered 5 of the last six here against the Hawks. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Sat 3:30 PM ET - We’re not sure everyone fully realizes just how good this Grizzlies team is and we feel they could make a serious run in the West. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-10 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-11 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. Minnesota is coming off a big home win over the Clippers and celebrated like they won the NBA Finals and we expect a letdown here. The Wolves were 20-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and the home team has won all four meetings between these two teams this season by an average of 16PPG. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies OVER 234 | Top | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 55 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies 3:30 PM ET - PACE! These two teams are going to play fast which means plenty of extra possessions for each team and more scoring opportunities. The Wolves are the fastest paced team in the league at 100.9 possessions per game. Memphis is 3rd in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. Not only do these teams get up and down the court in a fast manner but shots go up quickly. The Wolves average a FG attempts every 13.8 seconds on offense which is 2nd fastest, Memphis is 7th at 14.1 seconds. It typically doesn’t take opponents long to get a shot up against these defenses either as teams playing Memphis take 14.3 seconds to get a field goal attempt up, Minnesota foes take 14.4 seconds to attempt to score. The Grizzlies are 1st in the league in fastbreak points per game, the Wolves are 4th. Both teams also struggle to stop opposing fastbreak points per game with the Wolves ranking 26th worst in the NBA, Memphis is 21st. These two teams are also top 8 in offensive efficiency as the Grizzlies average 1.147-points per possession, the Wolves are 7th at 1.144PPP. Minnesota has gone OVER in 36 of 52 road games this season, Grizzlies OVER in 7 of their last eight when playing with 3 or more days rest. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the O/U posted was 240 and the two teams combined for 233 total points. In that recent game the Grizzlies shot just 39% which is well below their season average of 46.1%. This has all the makings of a shootout! |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 105-101 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - We like this situation for several reasons. First the win/loss results of each teams play-in games with the Clippers home off a loss and the Pelicans on the road off a win. Despite not having their two best players for portions of the season (Leonard has been out all year) the Clippers own a 25-16 SU record at home this season with a +/- of +2.5PPG. Again, despite injuries the Clippers are a respectable 22-19 SU off a loss this season, 11-8 SU at home in that situation. L.A. has played well in Paul George’s return going 7-2 SU their last nine games allowing 109 or less points defensively in 5 straight games. The Clippers hold a decisive advantage over the Pelicans defensively with a unit that ranks 11th in PPG allowed, 6th in FG% defense and 7th in 3-point percentage. Comparatively, the Pelicans rank 13th in points allowed, 24th in opponents FG% and 26th defending the 3-point line. Offensively these two teams are similar and we would even lean towards the Clippers on that end of the floor with the return of George and Powell. Both teams rank in the low 20’s in scoring and overall FG% but the Clippers are by far the better 3-point shooting team at 37.4% compared to the Pels 33.2%. We like the Clippers who have covered 5 of their last six as a Chalk, against a Pelicans teams that is 1-5 ATS their last six against a team with an above .500 record. |
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04-13-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have played really well since they traded for CJ McCollum shortly before the All-Star break. Since the break the Pelicans are just 13-10 SU but they have the 6th best average point differential in the league at +4.7PPG. In that same time frame, they own the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings (1.181PPP) and defensive efficiency rating (1.133PPP) and they did that with Brandon Ingram missing several games. The young Spurs have played well also but they are hovering around league average in both OEFF and DEFF for the season. For the year the Spurs are 18-23 SU on the road but do own a +/- of +0.4PPG. This game comes down to the veteran leadership of McCollum, Ingram and Valanciunas who are better than the top 3 for the Spurs. New Orleans by double-digits. |
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04-12-22 | Clippers v. Wolves -2.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 vs LA Clippers, Tuesday 9:30 PM ET - Granted the Clippers recently got Paul George back and Norman Powell but the Timberwolves have been the better team all season long. Remember we predicted the Wolves would go over their win total this season and we will continue to back them here. Karl Anthony Towns has been outstanding this season averaging 24.6PPG and 9.8 rebounds per game along with 1.1 blocks and 3.6 assists per game. The Clippers have won 5 straight games but those wins need to be taken with a grain of salt. They beat two horrible teams in the Thunder and Kings that were tanking. Phoenix was off a big win the night before against the Lakers and were locked into the #1 seed. The game before they beat the #9 seed Pelicans and prior to that they beat a Bucks team that sat their starters. So don’t be fooled by that current streak. Minnesota was pretty much settled into their playoff position and were focused on staying healthy and fresh for the postseason. The Wolves are far superior offensively ranking 8th in offensive efficiency compared to the Clippers who rank 24th. Defensively the Clippers hold an advantage ranking 8th in DEFF but the gap isn’t as wide as you’d think with the Wolves 14th. Minnesota is much better at home defensively allowing 1.074-points per possession compared to their season PPP allowed of 1.118PPP. Minny is 26-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5PPG. The Clippers are 17-24 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is 19th in the NBA. Throw out history here and simply bet the team that is currently better. Bet Minnesota! |
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04-10-22 | Warriors -4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 128-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Warriors still have some incentive to win here as they lock up the #3 seed in the West with a win. The Pelicans are locked into the 9 seed and will host San Antonio in a play-in game. Both teams played last night but the Pelicans will be playing their 3rd game in four days and are in their 6th game in a 10-day span and rest right now is more important than anything. New Orleans will give their bench players (which isn’t good to begin with, 8th worst in bench scoring) extended playing time here. The Warriors will play starters less in this game, but they have a bench that has produced the 11th most points per game in the NBA. In general, when playing unrested the Pels are 3-11 SU with an average +/- of -6.4PPG while the Warriors are 9-5 SU +4.5PPG. New Orleans ranks in the 20’s in most key defensive categories, the Warriors rank top 5. Offensively it isn’t close either as the Pels are 21st in scoring, 21st in 3PT% and 27th in 3PT%. Golden State is 15th in scoring, 12th in FG% and 9th in 3PT%. This is a short number and we’ll lay it with the road team! |
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04-10-22 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 216.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Toronto Raptors vs. NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - The Raptors are set for the 5th seed in the East and have nothing to play for. The Knicks are done for the year and are looking forward to the offseason. The Knicks offense has been bad all season long ranking 27th in scoring, 27th in shooting and 13th in 3PT% offense. They hold the 22nd ranked offensive efficiency rating at 1.106PPP. Putting up points in this game will be tough to do versus a Raptors defense that is 5th best in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break and ranks 7th in PPG allowed. Conversely, the Raptors could struggle to score here against a Knicks defense that is 6th in points allowed, 5th in FG% defense, 6th in 3PT% defense and 10th in defensive rebounding. Toronto is 20th in scoring at 109.6PPG, 25th in shooting 19th in 3PT%. Toronto has played in 4 higher scoring games recently but that came against either fast paced teams or higher scoring teams and the Knicks are neither. The Knicks are on a 5-2 Under streak, Toronto Under in 5 straight road games. The play here is UNDER! |
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04-09-22 | Kings v. Clippers UNDER 224.5 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Sacramento Kings @ LA Clippers, 9:40 PM ET - Our model is projecting just 219 total points being scored here with the Kings out of the playoffs and the Clippers settled into their seed. LA is locked into their positions in the Western Conference and will face the Timberwolves on Tuesday. They are still in the process of building chemistry with Paul George and Norman Powell back in the lineup but they really don’t have anything to play for here. Sacramento’s season has been over for a long time and now it’s all about a higher lottery pick. Looking at the recent schedule of the Kings we see they’ve really struggled offensively against good defensive teams and only put up points against a Rockets defense that is one of the worst in the league. Since the All-Star break the Kings are averaging 112PPG and 1.106-points per possession which is 26th in the NBA. In their last five games the Kings have been even worse with an average of 1.093PPP and that’s with two games versus the Rockets, who allow 1.166PPP (2nd to last in the league). The Clippers own the 8th best defensive efficiency numbers in the league at 1.106PPG and hold foes to 108.8PPG (11th). LA is 6th in team FG% defense, 10th in 3PT% defense. Neither offense is great as both rank in the bottom half of the league in most key offensive categories (FG%, 3PT%, PPG). The Clippers are 25th in offensive efficiency, the Kings are 24th. The Clipper home games have averaged 216.7 total points per game. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they have scored 194 and 203 total points. BET UNDER |
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04-08-22 | Hornets v. Bulls OVER 232 | Top | 133-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 232 Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to play well tonight as they still have a chance to improve their playoff positioning. Charlotte has been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long allowing 1.137-points per possession which is 24th in the NBA. Chicago hasn’t been much better giving up 1.132PPP which is 21st worst in the league. Since the All-Star break both teams have been even worse yet allowing more than 1.163-points per possession. The Hornets allow 115PPG which is 26th in the NBA, allowing 46.6% shooting (20th) and 36.1% 3-point shooting which is 22nd. Chicago’s numbers look similar to the Hornets allowing 111.6PPG, 47.2% shooting by opponents and 36.5 3PT%. What both teams do well though is play fast and score points. The Bulls rank 3rd in team FG%, 5th in 3PT% and score over 111PPG. Charlotte is 4th in the NBA in scoring at 115PPG with the 10th best 3PT% shooting and 14th best overall FG%. Charlotte is coming off a game last night and in that scheduling situation they are 8-6 Over with those games averaging 239.4PPG. The Bulls are off 4 low scoring games but those came against 4 of the better defenses in the NBA. All the indicators say OVER here. |
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04-08-22 | Hornets v. Bulls -2 | Top | 133-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -2 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to play well here so we know what kind of effort to expect from both teams. Scheduling clearly favors the Bulls here who are rested but off three straight losses and looking to rebound off a blowout loss to the Celtics. Charlotte is coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four days. The Hornets beat the Magic last night but had suffered a pair of crushing losses to the Heat and 76ers where they gave up 144-points in each. The Bulls three recent losses came against the Celtics, Bucks and Heat who are the three best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls have been solid at home all season long with a 27-13 SU record and a +/- of +2.8PPG. The Hornets are a respectable 20-20 SU away with a +/- of -1PPG. Charlotte is 1-13 SU on the season when playing without rest, 3-11 ATS minus nearly -6PPG. The Bulls have struggled covering numbers of late but this line is so low we’re basically just asking them to win. Easy call on the Bulls! |
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04-07-22 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 222 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 222 LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - Hasta la vista Lakers! This roster was put together by LeBron and was destined to fail right from the start. Los Angeles will miss the playoffs and will have to make major moves in the offseason if they expect to compete next season. Was it a coincidence that LeBron sat several games down the stretch against good defensive teams and when his team was in dire need of him to make the playoffs? He needs to play in the final three games to be eligible for the scoring title so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t play here. The Lakers are 12th in scoring at 111.6PPG and 7th in overall FG% offense and if they get to 110 or more this game goes Over. A big reason why will be the points the Warriors put up. Golden State is still playing for a better playoff position, so we know what kind of effort we’ll get from them. The Warriors should score plenty here against a Lakers defense that is 26th in points allowed, 22nd in FG% defense and 16th in defending the 3. The Lakers have allowed 1.230-points per possession in their last five games and 122.9PPG. The Warriors are 10th in both overall FG% and 3PT%. The three meetings this season between these two teams has ended with 240, 232 and 235 total points. More of the same here. |
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04-06-22 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 9* LA Clippers +1.5 vs Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Here’s the deal. The Suns are locked into the #1 seed in the Western Conference and overall. They had lost two straight prior to facing the Lakers on Tuesday night. They started and played regulars against the Lakers as it gave them a chance to help eliminate L.A. so they don’t face them in the playoffs. But expect a night off for the regulars against the Clippers on Wednesday. The Clippers have been without Paul George for a large portion of the season but he’s back now and they are trying to build continuity before the start of the playoffs. These two teams are very similar defensively and rate two of the better defenses in the NBA. The Suns have much better offensive numbers, but the Clippers have missed Kawhi Leonard for the entire season and George for most of it. The Clippers have been home underdogs just 8 times since the start of the 2020 season and they’ve covered six of those games. This is a tough game to find statistical support for the Clippers ,but the situation couldn’t be better for the home team here. Grab the points! |
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04-06-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 227 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 Phoenix Suns @ LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - These two teams are founded on defense. The Suns allow the 9th fewest points in the NBA at 107.1PPG, the Clippers give up just 108.8PPG. L.A. ranks 7th in team field goal percentage defense allowing 45.6% and 10th in 3-point percentage defense allowing 34.6%. The Suns are better than the Clippers in FG% defense allowing 44.4% and rank 1st in the NBA defending the 3-point line allowing 33.9%. The Suns are 9th in the league in pace of play but the Clippers are 17th and prefer a slower tempo. Looking at recent games for the Suns we see they’ve played three higher scoring games but they came against Memphis, Nuggets and T’Wolves who are all top 7 of the league in offensive efficiency rating. The Clippers aren’t in that category as they rank near the bottom of the league in OEFF at 25th scoring 1.097-points per possession. The Clippers put up some sizable offensive numbers in recent games but none of those defenses are equal or better than Los Angeles. The one defense they played recently that resembles the Clippers in the 76ers and they managed just 97-points in that game. This will be the 4th meeting of the season for these two teams and all three thus far have stayed Under the total. In fact, the oddsmakers haven’t set a line on the three games higher than 223. All three meetings have totaled 206 or less points and never threatened going Over. The Suns are off a game yesterday, have locked up the #1 seed and aren’t interested in scoring a ton of points here. Easy call on the UNDER! |
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04-05-22 | Bucks v. Bulls OVER 228.5 | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 228.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - There is tremendous value in this number and we like OVER here. These two teams met in late March and Vegas set a number of 235.5 total points. On March 4th the Over/Under was set at 240. Both games stayed Under the number, but one game finished with 230 total points and the other was 224. This game has huge playoff seeding implications for both teams as the Bucks could fall as low as 4th in the Eastern Conference, the Bulls could fall as low as 7th and be in the play-in game. You can bet we will see both teams’ full rosters on Tuesday night and we will get max efforts from both teams. This total is set slightly higher than the league average of a NBA game right now of 220.2PPG. In their last five games the Bucks have given up an average of 126.6PPG, while scoring 118 or more in 3 of the five. These two teams can score with the Bucks averaging 115PPG on the season while the Bulls score 111.7PPG. Both are top 12 in shooting and top 5 in 3-point percentage shooting. Neither has put up great defensive numbers on the season as both rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game. This game doesn’t even have to be a shootout to go Over the Total! |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4 over North Carolina, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We’ve been on Carolina each of the past 2 games and cashed but feel this is where their run ends. First off the situation for the Tar Heels is really tough. It’s almost as if they just played their National Championship game 48 hours ago beating Duke in the biggest game ever in that storied rivalry. There was such hype and pressure on the players and coaches entering that game and then on top of that an intense back and forth game where no team led by more than 7 points. UNC has played with nearly zero bench and all 5 starters in that game topped 33 minutes. One of their top players Armando Bacot (22 rebounds) injured his ankle in the 2nd half, came back but was still noticeably limping which could be an issue tonight. He will play but the Heels may have to dig deeper in their bench at times tonight to get him a break. Especially since we expect an extremely fast paced game with both teams loving to play up tempo. KU rolled over Villanova 81-65 and were able to spread their minutes out a bit more with 7 guys playing double digit minutes. Kansas has played the tougher schedule (3rd highest SOS nationally) and they have the better offense (6th adjusted efficiency) and defense (17th adjusted efficiency). Their defense has been playing at the top of their game down the stretch holding 4 of their 5 opponents in the NCAA to 65 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to that same number or less. Even though we were on UNC on Saturday Duke (felt +4 was definitely too high) they were a bit lucky to win that game outright. Duke took 8 more shots but made just 22% of their 3’s (averaged 37%) and only 60% of their FT’s (averaged 74%). We felt the Devils shooting overall would regress in that game but didn’t expect 5 of 22 from deep. The Jayhawks were more than comfortable playing in this huge venue on Saturday making 54% of their shots and 77% of their FT’s vs a very good Nova defense. They most likely won’t shoot those percentages tonight but if they do it will be a runaway. Even if they regress more toward their averages in this one, they still win and cover this game in our opinion. The last 15 years the winner of the National Championship game has had a margin of at least +6 points 12 times. We like Kansas to get that win tonight. |
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04-03-22 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 225 | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10 PM ET - Philadelphia just put up 144 points against the Charlotte Hornets who are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Philly shot 61% from the field overall, made 21 of 43 3-point attempts (49%) and hit 17 of 21 free throws. Those numbers are insanely high compared to their season averages of 109.2PPG (20th in NBA) 46.3% FG% and 36% 3-point percentage. In other words, they aren’t sustainable here, especially versus a solid Cavs defense. Cleveland is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season allowing just 1.094-points per possession and 107.4PPG. The Cavs rank 4th in points allowed, own the 6th best FG% defense and 16th 3-point percentage D. The Cavs are also coming off an anomaly game in which they shot 54% as a team, 44% from deep and made 16 of 21 FT’s against the Knicks yesterday. The Cavs are 25th in scoring this season and own the 18th ranked 3-point percentage in the league. Both teams are coming off games yesterday which factors in here. How much will the 76ers play Embiid and Harden on the second day of a back-to-back? On zero days rest this season the 76ers games have averaged 210.4PPG. The Cavs playing without rest have averaged 206.7PPG. When playing without rest the Cavs are 21-10 UNDER their last 31. The Sixers 4-1 Under in their last five games without rest. These two teams met twice in March and both games went Over yet the pace of play was very slow. That will be the case today and neither shoots it well enough to go Over. The UNDER is the play here! |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Duke | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +4.5 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - The way these 2 teams are playing at the moment we have them rated almost dead even. This number says that Duke is 4 points better on a neutral court which we disagree with. It could be argued that UNC is actually playing better right now. In the NCAA they beat Marquette by 30+ points, beat #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game UNC led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7, and then crushed a red hot St Peter’s team that had beaten Kentucky, Murray State, and Purdue leading up to that game. Duke struggled with Michigan State (7th rated team in the Big 10) trailing late and were down much of the game vs Texas Tech and won a tight one. The Heels have had more clean wins so to speak in this tourney vs teams that have an average rank of 42 in Ken Pom ratings compared to Duke’s opponents who have an average rank of 56. UNC is 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance covering by an average of 15 PPG while Duke is 3-1 ATS covering by an average of 2.5 PPG. The Devils have been shooting absolute lights out and we just don’t see that continuing here in New Orleans Superdome, a huge venue. They have taken 36 fewer shots than their opponents in the NCAA tourney but they’ve topped 50% from the field in every game and hit a ridiculous 54% for the entire tourney. Duke is a very good shooting team (48%) but if they don’t shoot lights out in every game so far they most likely aren’t here right now. The Heels have shot 10% points lower in the tourney (44%) and they’ve pretty much dominated every team they’ve played despite that. These two rivals split their 2 meetings this year with each winning on the other’s home court. The most recent was the regular season finale at Duke where the Devils had all the reason in the world to win that game sending Coach K out with a win in his final home game. UNC dominated and won by 13 in arguably the toughest atmosphere of the season in college hoops. Speaking of currently being undervalued, the Tar Heels have won 4 in a row outright as a dog winning @ VaTech, @ Duke, and beating Baylor and UCLA in the Dance. Lastly, much more pressure on Duke here to win this thing for Coach K and UNC is sort of playing with house money making it to the Final 4 as an 8 seed. We’ll take the points in a game we feel is dead even. |
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04-02-22 | Nets -125 v. Hawks | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -120 @ Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - This game has playoff implications as the Hawks and Nets are trying to avoid the play in situation in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Bucks and will be highly motivated here. Both teams are top 7 shooting teams in the NBA with the Nets ranking 4th at 47.4% while the Hawks re 7th at 47%. But the Nets play much better defense that the Hawks holding opponents to 45.3% shooting (9th in NBA) and 34.6% 3-point percentage which is also 9th best. In comparison the Hawks are 26th in FG% defense, 27th in defending the 3-point line. Brooklyn is also the #1 ranked efficiency offense when it comes to fast break points per possession at 1.892. Atlanta is 20th in opponents fast break efficiency, allowing 1.704PPP. Isn’t it strange the Nets are favored here against a Hawks team that has won four straight and 7 of their last ten. The Hawks last four wins aren’t impressive considering they came against a Cavs team that is struggling, the Thunder, Pacers and a shorthanded Warriors team. The Hawks don’t have an answer for KD and Kyrie and we expect those two to shine in this playoff like atmosphere. The Nets have beaten the Hawks twice this season by 8 and 9-points respectively. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 133 | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
#701/702 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133 Points – Villanova vs Kansas, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Both defenses have been outstanding this season ranking in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency. They’ve both turned it up a notch on that end of the court in the NCAA tourney with Kansas allowing 59.8 PPG in their 5 games and Nova allowing 55 PPG. The Wildcats defense has been especially impressive allowing 61 points or less in each of their 4 tourney games despite playing 3 top 20 efficiency offenses (OSU, Houston, and Michigan). KU has allowed 61 or less in 3 of their 4 games. Besides the fact that both teams play great defense, they one thing we are banking on here is a very slow pace. NO WAY Nova head coach Jay Wright will let this game go up and down at a quick pace. First of all the Cats are very slow to being with (334th tempo) and they will be without one of their best players, Justin Moore, which makes this team really thin. Wright will need to play his starters as much as possible and most likely go only 6 deep for decent minutes at least. He’ll make this a half court game and KU prefers up tempo. Th only way this game gets moving quickly will be if Nova gets down by a large margin and they can’t affor to make it low possession game. We’ll bank on that not happening. When Kansas played the slowest paced teams in Big 12 (Okla, ISU, and Texas) each twice, they scored 140 or less in 5 of those games and 131 or less in 4 of the 6. They had one higher scoring game in that bunch vs Texas and if we throw that out KU’s average total points scored in the other 5 was just 127. A new, huge venue for both teams (Superdome) which will most likely make it tough to shoot the ball well from outside. We like the Under in this game. |
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04-01-22 | Blazers v. Spurs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Portland Trailblazers @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - San Antonio clearly has plenty to play for as they battle the Lakers for the 10th spot in the West. Portland’s season has been over for quite some time. These teams met on March 23rd with the Spurs winning 133-96 in Portland. The Spurs shot extremely well for the game by making 19 of 44 3-pointers, hitting 49% of their FG attempts overall and making 92% of their free throws. San Antonio has been playing “playoff” like defense of late allowing less than 112PPG in 4 of their last five contests. On the offensive side they scored 133 against this Blazers team but have scored 111 or less in four of their last six games. Portland’s offense has been atrocious this season since the Lillard injury and trade of McCollum. In fact, since the All-Star break this team is last in the league in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.041-points per possession and 104.7PPG. Since the Break the Spurs are also in the bottom half of the league in OEFF. In the last five meetings between these two teams, they have not topped 230 total points and let’s not forget this number is significantly higher than the league average of points scored in an NBA game of 220.2PPG. The bet here is UNDER! |
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04-01-22 | Fresno State -2.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 85-74 | Win | 100 | 44 h 36 m | Show |
#893 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with FSU as a 5 point chalk which is exactly where we had the game power rated. It has since dropped so we’ll take the value with the road team. Fresno got to this Championship game by rolling over a solid Southern Utah team on Monday by 19 points and holding them to just 48 points. CC won @ South Alabama by 1 point in OT but is wasn’t a full strength opponent. South Alabama played that game without their 2 leading scorers, Manning and Chandler, who combine to average 31 PPG, 7 RPG, and 6 APG. Even with that the Chanticleers needed a 3 pointer with only a few seconds remaining to send the game to OT where the won. If USA was at full strength, we’re pretty confident in saying CC wouldn’t even be here. They are playing this game at home, however they lost 6 games at home this season including 5 conference games (Sun Belt) so it’s not a huge advantage. If we use the Ken Pom ratings here, Fresno will be the highest rated team Coastal has played all season. Not one Sun Belt team ranked inside the top 130 and Fresno is currently ranked 78th. FSU has the much better overall numbers with a points per possession differential of +10.7 per 100 possessions compared to Coastal which is +1.0 in the same category. Consider that and the fact that Fresno played the MUCH tougher schedule (ranked 100 spots higher in SOS). The Bulldogs rank 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 3rd nationally in PPG allowed at 58. Coastal Carolina has faced ONE top 100 defense all season (adjusted efficiency) so this will be a huge step up in what they are used to seeing. CC is also loose with the ball (307th in TO %) which will be an issue vs the best defense they’ve faced this season. Lastly, on top of all that, Fresno will have the best player on the floor in 7-foot Orlando Robinson (19 PPG, 8 RPG) who Ken Pom has rated as the 7th best player in the country. We don’t have to worry about motivation here. This is the Basketball Classic Championship game so we expect both teams to bring their A game. Fresno’s best is better than Coastal’s best so we’ll lay the small number. |
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03-31-22 | Cavs v. Hawks -5 | Top | 107-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a very big game for both teams as they jockey for better playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs currently hold the 7th spot in the East, the Hawks are 10th but only 3 games separate the two teams. The Cavs are struggling right now with a 1-4 SU record their last five games and injuries have a lot to do with it. Cleveland has been without All-Star Jarrett Allen and now are playing without Evan Mobley. Those two are the Cavs best two frontline players and its showed in recent games as they’ve been outscored by 68-points in the paint the past three games. Atlanta has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five and are making a strong late season push. The Hawks have won 8 of their last nine home games and one of those wins came against this same Cavs team 124-116. The Cavs had Mobley for that game and he grabbed 10 rebounds and scored 22-points. The Hawks have a +5.8PPG average MOV at home this season, while the Cavs have a negative differential in their last five games of -6PPG. The healthy Hawks get a big home win here. |
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03-31-22 | Xavier v. Texas A&M OVER 137 | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#651/652 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 137 Points – Xavier vs Texas A&M, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We were on the Under in Xavier’s most recent game vs St Bonnies. The total was set at 138 in that game and this one is just a touch lower. It should be higher based on the opponent. That was a game that St Bonnies, a thin team playing basically 5 players, wanted to slow down. They are a slow paced team ranking 268th in possessions per game. STB got down big at half (which was on pace for 122) and had to abandon their slow pace to try and get back in the game which was obviously bad for the Under. The 2 teams went on to score 100 points in the 2nd half in what turned out to be a faster paced game due to the situation. A&M likes to play much faster than St Bonnies and Xavier is a top 100 team in adjusted pace. A&M faced Wake Forest in this tourney, a team with very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers that likes to play fast as well, and that total was set at 146. It went under because neither team shot above 40% from the field, both shot just 22% from 3, and they made only 24 of 40 FT’s. Xavier has hit their stride offensive scoring at least 72 points in all 4 of their NIT games and in their last 6 games overall. In their last 2 games vs 2 very solid defensive teams (Vandy & St Bonnies) they averaged 1.12 and 1.29 PPP. A&M is playing very well offensively averaging 72 PPG in their 4 NIT games. Both teams get to the FT line a lot (both in the top 50 in FT attempt rate) with Xavier averaging 20 FT attempts per game in this tourney and A&M averaging 21 FT attempts per game in the NIT. We should get a decent amount of points from the line tonight. Both teams are playing their 2nd game in Madison Square Garden so both are now comfortable with the venue. Each of the last 4 NIT finals have topped 140 points and we expect this one to do the same. Over is the play here. |
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03-30-22 | Wolves +3 v. Raptors | Top | 102-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +3 at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams are coming off opposite results with the Raptors coming off a big OT win over the Celtics, while the Timberwolves are off a bad loss in Boston. The Wolves have lost 3 of their last four games but those beats came against the Celtics, Mavericks and Suns. Minnesota is 19-8 SU their last 27 games and a team nobody wants to face in the Western Conference playoffs. Toronto is 9-2 SU their last eleven games which has me wondering why they are such a low home favorite here. The Wolves have the 10th best road margin of victory in the NBA at +.5PPG and they’ve covered 5 of their last six away from home. Minnesota is 16-17 SU off a loss but have covered 8 of their last nine in that situation. Toronto is just 2-6 ATS their last eight as a home favorite and really struggled beating a Celtics team the other night that was without Tatum, Brown, Williams and Horford. Grab the points with Minnesota. |
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03-29-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 223 | Top | 107-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 223 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - These aren’t two of the faster paced teams in the NBA and the Wizards rank in the bottom 3rd of the NBA in offensive efficiency, the Bulls rank 10th. Chicago scores 111.6PPG, Washington 108.3PPG. What both teams do have in common is their lack of defense. The Bulls rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing nearly 1.130-points per possession, the Wiz are worse yet at 25th giving up 1.141PPP. Both have been even worse since the All-Star break when it comes to DEFF. The league average points scored in an NBA game right now is 220 and this number is only slightly higher than that. Chicago is coming off a game last night and they’ve gone Over the total in 9 of their last twelve games in that scheduling situation. The Wizards have gone over the total in 10 of their last fourteen games and 7 straight as a home underdog. We are betting this game will be slightly higher than league average and get to the high 220’s. |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
#647/648 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139.5 Points – Xavier vs St Bonaventure, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Xavier likes to play up tempo but St Bonnies is a slow paced team (253rd in adjusted tempo & 268th in possessions per game). It’s always easier to slow a team down rather than speed a team up which is why we always like the slower paced team to gain control of the tempo. No way St Bonnies wants to play fast in this game. They have the thinnest bench in college basketball with all 5 of their starters averaging more than 30 minutes per game. They basically have a 6 man rotation if one of the starters gets in foul trouble. They will turn this into a half court game with limited possessions. Both defenses are solid allowing right around 0.97 PPP on the season. Offensively, neither team shoots well from 3 with both averaging right around 32%. Because of that, neither team takes many shots from beyond the arc as they rank 313th and 283rd in percentage of points scored from deep. Throw in the fact that neither team fouls very much and the majority of points in this game will be scored inside the arc. Xavier remains without their 2nd leading scorer Scruggs (12 PPG) who was injured in their NIT win over Florida. St Bonnies games have gone Under the total in 6 of their last 8. They have topped 140 points just ONCE in their last 9 games because they play solid defense and slow teams down tempo wise. While Xavier has had some higher scoring games vs the faster paced teams in the Big East, when they faced the low possession teams their games have been low scoring. Villanova, Providence, and Butler are the 3 slowest paced teams in the Big East and Xavier’s played 7 games vs those teams and topped 140 total points just once. We think both teams struggle to get to 70 here and Under is the play. |
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03-28-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 123-120 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -6.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Obviously, the Spurs have everything to play for right now as they still have a shot at getting into the post season. With just 20 wins the Rockets season is essentially done. The line on this game opened -5.5 points and was immediately bet up by the Sharps. There is still value and we’ll take the road favorite. The Spurs are significantly better offensively than the Rockets who rank 19th in scoring, 22nd in FG%, 21st in 3-point% and 30th in rebounding. The Spurs rank 8th in scoring, 12th in shooting and 17th in 3-point% with the 9th best offensive rebounding average in the league. Defensively the Spurs aren’t great ranking mid-20’s in most key defensive categories but the Rockets are far worse ranking 30th in points allowed and opponents FG%. San Antonio has won 3 straight and 4 of five. Houston has won 2 in a row but both were against Portland. The Rockets are just 1-4 SU their last five home games and they have the 3rd worst +/- at home in the NBA at minus -6.8PPG. The Spurs have drubbed this Rockets team in the two most recent meetings by 30 and 25-points respectively. Lay the points! |
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03-28-22 | Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama UNDER 138.5 | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
#887/888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 138.5 Points – Coastal Carolina vs South Alabama, Monday at 8 PM ET - Two teams from the Sun Belt Conference meeting in the Basketball Classic semi-finals here. These 2 teams know each other well and we like this one to turn into a low scoring grinder. Both defenses are very solid allowing just 0.97 PPP in conference play and ranking #1 and #2 in the Sun Belt in eFG% defense. These 2 defenses also rank #1 and #2 in the league in 3 point FG% defense both allowing less than 30% from deep. On top of that, both defenses make the opposing offense really work for decent shots which leads to long offensive possessions. CC ranks 313th in length of opponent’s possession at 18.2 seconds on average and USA ranks 327th in that same category. These 2 met once this year and the total was set at 135 points. The final score was South Alabama 71, Coastal Carolina 68. It was a low possession game with only 103 shots attempted which wasn’t a surprise as both teams ranking outside the top 220 in offensive possessions per game. They combined to make 17 of 48 three point attempts (35%) and we don’t expect a repeat as both teams allow less than 30% as we mentioned above. They also combined to make 34 FT’s and we expect those numbers to come down here as well with both teams ranking outside the top 125 in FT attempt rate. Neither team reaches 70 in this game and we’re on the UNDER. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina -8 | Top | 49-69 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -8 over St Peters, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We took Purdue over St Peters on Friday night and lost but the value here on UNC is simply too good to pass up. Purdue was just favored by 13 points over the Peacocks on Friday and now UNC is laying only in the -8 or -8.5 range? We have North Carolina and Purdue power rated almost dead even but the line is 5 points lower than just 2 days ago? St Peter’s was also an 18 point dog vs Kentucky just last week! We realize they are playing well and quite frankly WAY above their heads when compared to their season numbers but this adjustment is too much. We realize STP is playing well but what about the Heels? They’ve won 9 of their last 10 and many convincingly. They won by double digits @ Duke to close out the regular season and beat UVA by 20 in the ACC tourney. Once UNC hit the Dance they’ve beaten Marquette by 32, #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game they led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, and then just beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7. UNC will cream St Peter’s on the boards just as Purdue did (+16 rebound margin). The Boilers problem on Friday were turnovers (23% TO rate) and poor 3 point shooting (23%). We expect UNC to handle the pressure much better than Purdue and they’ve been hot from 3 hitting just over 37% in the tourney. The Peacocks still remain by far the worst offensive team left in the tourney. They rank 216th in adjusted efficiency (next worst team in Elite eight ranks 53rd) and they rank 253rd in eFG%. They will struggle to score vs UNC’s length inside so they’ll need to be red hot from deep to stay in this game. We love the STP story and they are playing very well but this is a tough match up vs a highly talented team playing at their peak level right now. That along with the value in the number here have us on North Carolina. |
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03-27-22 | Knicks v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 NY Knicks at Detroit Pistons, 3:40 PM ET - We like the spot for an Under here with the Knicks coming off a big road win over Miami and another big game looming with the Bulls. New York is running out of chances to make the playoffs as they sit 5 games behind the Hawks and 6 behind Charlotte. The Knicks have recently played some lower scoring games against Miami, Utah, Washington, and Dallas who are slower paced teams in the NBA more similar to Detroit. Yes, they’ve had a few higher scoring games but that was versus uptempo teams or high efficiency offenses. The Pistons are slightly above league average in pace of play but rank 28th in offensive efficiency scoring 1 point per every 105.4 possessions per game. The Pistons have been a money-making machine since the trade deadline and that has a lot to do with them not dealing Jerami Grant. Grant has been the Pistons leading scorer but was injured last game and won’t play here. Detroit has scored 109 or less points in 6 of their last nine games and only managed 97-points last game when Grant was hurt just a few minutes into the contest. Detroit is on a 6-1 Under streak at home as a dog, the Knicks are 4-0 their last four as a road favorite. The two meetings this season have resulted in 196 and 179 total points. Bet Under! |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
#641 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +4 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - Duke was a bit fortunate with their win over Texas Tech on Thursday. They won 78-73 which was their largest lead of the entire game. The Blue Devils shot 52% from the field and made 10 more FT’s and still only led for 7 minutes from the 7:00 minute mark of the first half through the end of the game (final 27 minutes of game time). In their previous game Duke shot 57% vs Michigan State and made 5 more FT’s yet trailed late before pulling out a win. So they shot lights out both games yet trailed both with under 3:00 minutes remaining. The Arkansas defense has been great in this tourney including holding the #1 offense in America (Gonzaga) to just 68 points on 38% shooting on Thursday. Nothing new for the Razors as they rank 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. We have to expect with Duke playing another top notch defense their offensive shooting percentage stays below 50% here which should make this game tight. It could be argued that since mid January, the Razorbacks have played as well as anyone in the country. They have won 18 of their last 21 games and 2 of those losses have come by 4 points or less. 10 of those 18 wins came vs NCAA tourney teams. Duke was struggling entering this tourney losing their home finale vs UNC and then losing in the ACC tourney vs Va Tech and as we said they were close to losing each of their last 2 games. Arkansas just beat who most consider the best team in the country despite not playing great offensively. They made just 40% of the shots, 28% of their 3’s and made 6 fewer FT’s than the Zags. That’s how well their defense has been playing. They have been an underdog 5 times this season and covered all 5 by an average of almost 9 PPG. We expect this to be close throughout and we have to take the points in this one. |
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03-26-22 | Spurs +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +5 vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 5 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround revenge game for the Spurs who were blown out by the Pelicans on March 18th, 91-124. Coach Popp was ejected in the second quarter after the Spurs scored just 10-points in the 1st. This game has huge playoff implications as both are fighting to stay in the top 10 in the West. After the loss to the Pels the Spurs bounced back with a win over the Warriors then blew out the Blazers. The Pelicans are off a big home win over the Bulls but are 1-3 SU their last four at home. New Orleans is 17-20 SU at home and below average in +/- of +1.1PPG. San Antonio is 15-21 SU on the road but they are 15th in the league in average MOV at +0.2PPG. The Spurs have covered 6 straight in New Orleans and are 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings overall. Grab the points. |
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03-25-22 | Jazz -3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 101-107 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -3.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - We love to back elite NBA teams when they are off embarrassing losses which is the case here for Utah. The Jazz are coming off a humbling 97-125 loss against the Celtics on Wednesday night and should rebound here with a big effort. After facing the #1 ranked defense in the NBA the Jazz step down here to face a Charlotte team that is 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.135-points per possession. Utah is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA and they couldn’t buy a basket from deep against the Celtics but should have success here versus a Hornets D that allows 35.9% which is 21st in the league. Utah ranks top 7 in the NBA in points scored, FG% offense, 3-PT% and rebounding. They are also top 11 defensively in those same categories. While the Hornets are top 13 in most key offensive categories, they rank 28th in points allowed 19th in FG% D, 21st in 3-PT% and 29th in defensive rebounding. Charlotte has won 5 of their last six games but are coming off a loss to the Knicks. Charlotte doesn’t possess a great home court advantage which is why they are 19-18 SU at home with a below average +/- of +0.4PPG. We like the bounce back factor with the Jazz in this one. |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue -12.5 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -12.5 over St Peters, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - Here is the end of the line for the Peacocks. The line may seem a bit high at 12.5 but we’re actually getting some value on Purdue based on St Peters Cinderella run. The Peacocks faced Kentucky to open the NCAA tournament and they were 18 point underdogs in that game. Our power ratings would have UK favored by just 2 over Purdue on a neutral court so that tells us if this game was played last week we were probably going to see the Boilers as a 15 or 16 point favorite. STP’s offense has been below average all season long and played well above their expectations in the first 2 games of the NCAA. They averaged 1.13 and 1.09 PPP in those two wins over Kentucky and Murray State but their season average vs subpar competition for the most part was just 1.00 PPP. Purdue will be the best offense the Peacocks have faced this season. The Boilers rank 2nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, 3rd in 2 point FG%, 3rd in 3 point FG%, and 7th in scoring at 80 PPG. To put that in perspective, the MAAC, St Peter’s conference, has a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 170 in offensive efficiency. That was Iona who beat the Peacocks both times they met this season. STP doesn’t have the size to hang in this game. Purdue is huge. They have 2 very good inside threats in 7 foot 4 Ivey and 6 foot 10 Williams. STP’s biggest player in the regular rotation is 6 foot 8 he is a freshman. Purdue should dominate the interior which will open up their 3 point shooters which are deadly (39% as a team). They should also completely control the boards on both ends limiting St Peter’s to one shot on the vast majority of possessions while gathering offensive boards to give themselves extra possessions as well. On top of that, St Peter’s fouls A LOT so Purdue should live at the FT line where they hit 71%. The Peacocks had their nice opening weekend but it ends here and Purdue runs away with this one. |
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03-24-22 | Houston v. Arizona UNDER 145.5 | Top | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
#623/624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 145.5 Points – Houston vs Arizona, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Arizona loves to run. They are at their best offensively when they get out in the open court. There is absolutely no way Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson lets that happen. The Cougars are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (334th in adjusted tempo and 315th in possessions per game) and they will do everything in their power to ugly this game up. That’s their best chance in this one. The Cougs are fantastic defensively ranking 10th nationally in adjusted efficiency, 7th allowing 59 PPG, and #1 in the country allowing opponents to shoot just 37%. They have allowed 70+ points just ONCE in their last 13 games. Much is made of Zona’s offense but their defense has been fantastic. They are allowing opponent to average just 0.92 PPP adjusted efficiency which ranks them 19th nationally. They also allow opponents to shoot only 38% which ranks them 6th in the country. Neither team is elite at making 3-pointers and both prefer to score inside the arc. Problem is, that’s the strength of both defense ranking 2nd (Houston) and 9th (Arizona) defending inside the arc. Both teams are long, athletic and block a lot of shots inside (3rd and 25th in block shot %). If this turns into mainly a half court game which we feel it will, both teams are going to struggle to get good looks. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech -1 v. Duke | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
#629 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -1 over Duke, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - We knew Tech would come out as a favorite in this game and we knew the masses would flock to Duke as a dog. There is a reason Texas Tech is favored. They are the better team and a bad match up for this young Blue Devil team. The Raiders are a veteran team that plays very physical which is a rough brand of basketball that Duke isn’t used to. TT ranks #1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, they create TO’s on almost 24% of possessions, and they are a very good rebounding team. They have big advantages in all of those categories in this game. Duke’s offense thrives in transition but Tech will make this a half court game. Even if the Devils are able to get some up tempo at times, the Raiders are great at transition defense allowing the lowest eFG% in the country in transition (43%). TT is also fantastic defensively inside the arc allowing the 3rd lowest % of points from 2-point land. If Duke wins this game, it will be because they get red hot from outside the 3 point line. We’ll take our chances there as Tech is also very solid at defending the 3 allowing 31%. The Red Raider defense gets the accolades but their offense is solid and underrated. They rank 46th nationally in adjusted efficiency and they are fantastic as scoring inside the arc hitting 55% of their shots (22nd nationally) and scoring over 55% of their points from 2-point range (76th nationally). Duke’s defense has been shaky to say the least allowing 75 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. They’ve allowed at least 1.10 PPP in 6 of their last 8 games. To put that in perspective, Texas Tech allows 0.84 PPP adjusted efficiency on the season! The Devils haven’t faced a defense anywhere near this good since November (Gonzaga & Kentucky). There is not a single ACC defense ranked inside the top 40 in adjusted efficiency. Lots of pressure on this young team to get it done in Coach K’s final run. They couldn’t do it in their home finale getting rolled by UNC. They couldn’t do it in the ACC tourney getting smoked by Va Tech in the final. We don’t think they’re tough enough to get it done here and we’ll call for Texas Tech to move onto the Elite 8. |
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03-23-22 | Youngstown State v. Fresno State -13 | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -13 over Youngstown State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - YSU has played the 2nd easiest schedule in the entire country this season. Fresno State will be just the 3rd top 100 team (per Ken Pom) that Youngstown has faced the entire season. The first 2 were vs West Virginia (30 point loss) and Penn State (16 point loss). We think the Penguins will have huge problems offensively in this game. Their overall offensive stats aren’t terrible as they rank 189th in efficiency. The problem with that is, they’ve faced a terrible set of defenses this year. YSU resides in the Horizon League which has ZERO top 100 defenses (efficiency wise) and ONE defense ranked inside the top 200. That means in their 22 conference games, 20 were vs defenses ranked lower than 200 in adjusted efficiency. Looking at the season as a whole, the Penguins faced 2 defenses this year (in 33 games) that were ranked inside the top 100. They scored 52 and 59 points in those games. Fresno State’s defense is very good ranking 3rd nationally allowing just 58 PPG and 33rd nationally in efficiency. On the other end of the court, FSU should have a field day vs YSU’s defense which ranks 311th in efficiency. To put that in perspective not ONE team in the Mountain West Conference has a defense that ranks 300 or lower. The only one that is close in San Jose State and Fresno won all 3 meetings with the Spartans have an average of 17.3 PPG scoring an average of 74 PPG in those games. That may not seem like a huge number but when your defense allows teams to score in the 50’s, getting to 70+ points gets Fresno in the “easy win” column. Fresno beat Eastern Washington in game 1 of this tourney by 9 points but they led by 18 with just 2 minutes remaining. YSU struggled with a bad Morgan State team (won by 5) that was missing 3 of their top 6 scorers in that game. Long travel for a Youngstown team that will be overmatched here. |
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03-23-22 | Jazz +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - This line is clearly higher than it should be because of the Celtics current hot streak. That makes it a great opportunity to sell high and buy low with Utah. We must acknowledge Boston’s 20-3 SU run and won’t pretend that it doesn’t exist, but this is a solid spot to fade them. Utah doesn’t have a great overall road record at 19-16 SU but they do own the 5th best average margin of victory at +3.3PPG. Boston has a 24-12 SU home record with a differential of +5.5PPG. These two teams own two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Jazz top 10 in points allowed FG% D and 3-point % D and rank #1 in rebounding. The Celtics are 1st in points allowed 1st in FG% D and 2nd in 3-point% but 14th in rebounding. Utah holds a huge advantage offensively with a unit that ranks top 6 in scoring, FG%, 3PT% and rebounding. In comparison the Celtics rank 16th or worse in the three main offensive categories and 5th in offensive rebounding. Utah is a solid 15-11 SU when coming off a loss, while the C’s are 8-14-1 ATS when off a win. In a few of their recent road games the Jazz have been favored over the Nets, Knicks and Mavericks and now they are getting an inflated number here. Will you be surprised in the Jazz win this outright? I won’t! |
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03-22-22 | Bulls v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 versus Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We like the scenario here with the Bulls coming off a game last night and the Bucks coming off a horrible loss a few nights ago in Minnesota. There is value in this number. Earlier this month these two teams squared off in Chicago and the oddsmaker set a spread of Bucks -5.5-points. Now the Bucks are laying 6-points at home! Chicago has not faired well against the leagues elite teams and are currently 0-5 ATS their last five versus teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. On the season the Bulls are 4-18 SU against the top 10 teams in the league. The Bucks have been terrible as a home favorite this season, but they have covered 5 of their last six as a chalk. The Bucks have a +/- of 4.6PPG, the Bulls have a negative road differential of -2.9PPG. Given the circumstances and the fact the Bucks just laid a similar number in Chicago (and won by 6-points) we like them here by double-digits. |
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03-21-22 | Pelicans v. Hornets -5.5 | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hornets have been a “hot or cold” team all season long and right now they are currently “hot” with 4 straight wins and covers. Included in this four game stretch is a 142-120 win over the Pelicans as a -3.5-point favorite in New Orleans. The Pels did play without McCollum and Ingram in that game and will again be without Ingram their leading scorer here. New Orleans is coming off a road win yesterday in Atlanta and also playing their 3rd game in a four-day span. Last night saw their starters all get extended minutes and the bench is short the way it is. When playing without rest this season the Pels are 2-10 SU with an average loss margin of -8PPG. The Pelicans aren’t great off a win either with a 6-11 SU road record in that situation. The Hornets last four wins have all come by double digits and they own the 5th best average point differential in the NBA over the last five games. Charlotte has covered 6 straight as a favorite and they get a big 10+ point win in this one. |
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03-20-22 | Jazz v. Knicks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 108-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Utah Jazz at New York Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - We expect a low possession, low scoring defensive batter today in the Garden when the Jazz and Knicks square off. The Knicks rank 26th out of 30 NBA teams when it comes to pace of play with 96.1 possessions per game. Utah is slightly faster at 97.6 which ranks 20th in the league. When playing away from home the Jazz are slower yet at 97 possessions per game. Both of these teams excel on the defensive end of the court as each rank in the top 10 when it comes to points allowed per possession or defensive efficiency. The Jazz may be the most efficient offense in the NBA but they’ll be without Mike Conley here and Donovan Mitchell is less than 100%. The Knicks rank 23rd in OEFF at 1.098PPP. Our model is projecting both teams to score less than 110 points. The Jazz have stayed Under in 4 straight road games, Knicks Under in four straight when playing a team with a winning record. The Under is now 4-0 the last four times these two teams have met. |
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03-20-22 | Notre Dame v. Texas Tech -7.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas Tech -7.5 over Notre Dame, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We lost going against ND on Friday vs a Bama team that looked lethargic and played a terrible game. On top of that, the Tide lost arguably their best player (Quinerly) just 3 minutes into the game. The Irish were able to outlast Alabama by shooting 54% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. They won’t get anywhere near those numbers in this game vs Texas Tech who has the #1 defensive team in the nation (adjusted efficiency). The Raiders are rested after destroying Montana State in round 1 and they are a very poor match up for the Irish. Tech is a dominant rebounding team that is very physical. That’s a problem for Notre Dame who is not a physical team, nor a good rebounding team, AND they are playing their 3rd game in 5 days including long travel (2,200 miles) after their first 4 in double OT win on Wednesday. We expect ND to have tired legs in this one which is one thing you absolutely don’t want when playing Texas Tech who will be up in the Irish shorts defensively the entire game. In their win over the Tide, Bama actually controlled the offensive boards and pushed Notre Dame into a 25% TO rate. Those 2 things led to 10 more shot attempts for the Crimson Tide but a poor shooting night after losing Quinerly was their downfall. If ND turned it over 25% of the time vs Bama (204th nationally in defensive TO %) they are in huge trouble here vs the Red Raiders who turn teams over 24% of the time (10th nationally). Between that and the big rebounding edge we expect here, Tech should create a lot of extra possessions. If ND doesn’t shoot lights out again, they are in trouble in this game. With tired legs and facing a great defense, we anticipate they won’t. It’s the end of the road for the Irish and we look for Tech to win this by double digits. |
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03-19-22 | Mavs v. Hornets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - Given the circumstances we must play Under in this one. The Mavs are off a game last night in Philadelphia and they’ve been a strong Under team when playing without rest with a 2-8 mark. Those ten games have averaged 206.5PPG. Charlotte has been off for two days and in that scenario they are 4-6 Under with those games averaging 223.5PPG. On the season the Mavs have the 6th best defensive efficiency ratings in the league and they are the slowest paced team in the NBA. Dallas is also below average in offensive efficiency ranking 18th and 26th in scoring at 106.6PPG. Charlotte for the season is the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA at 100.3 possessions per game. Since the All-Star break though they have slowed to 98.7 possessions per game which is 19th slowest. Charlotte is one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA but in recent games against similar defenses to the Mavs they’ve struggled to score with 101 vs. Boston, 119 vs. Cleveland and 106 against the Bucks. We don’t see these teams getting into the 220’s. |
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03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -5.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET - Michigan came from 15 down vs Colorado State on Thursday to pick up a first round win. They did so without starting PG Jones (11 PPG, 5 RPG, 5 APG) who is out with a concussion but it will be tough to compete in this one without him. He did not make the trip to Indy and they’re hoping he can play next week if Michigan makes it that far which we project they will not. The Wolverines shot over 50% vs CSU and the Rams made just 35% of their shots vs a Wolverine defense that hasn’t been great this year (11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency). Michigan also made 14 more FT’s in the game and those 2 things tell us this game should have been a blowout and it wasn’t. Now the Wolverines face a lock down UT defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. It’s a Vols team that is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now winning 13 of their last 14 with their only loss coming @ Arkansas by 6. In the SEC tourney Tennessee topped a top notch Kentucky team by 7 (led by 14 in the 2nd half) and then rolled a red hot A&M team by 15 in the final. While Michigan had a fairly tough opening round game vs CSU, they trailed at half and really only played 6 guys decent minutes, UT is rested after rolling Longwood by 30+ and played 8 guys double digit minutes. These 2 both played top 10 schedules this year but UT is +26 points per 100 possessions vs their opponents while Michigan is +16 pints per 100 possessions. Tennessee might just be the best team in the country right now. The much better D playing a less than 100% Michigan team is a take for us. |
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03-18-22 | Colgate v. Wisconsin OVER 139 | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
#761/762 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 139 Points – Colgate vs Wisconsin, Friday at 9:50 PM ET - Many still view the Badgers as a plodding, slow paced team but that is not the case this season. They were actually the 5th fastest paced team in the Big 10 this season. Colgate ranked 4th in the Patriot league in tempo and 162nd nationally. Neither of these teams prefers to walk it up the court and use the full shot clock so we should have plenty of possessions to get this this total. Colgate ranks below 200th in defensive efficiency. To put that in perspective, only 4 teams in the Big 10 rank below 100th in defensive efficiency and none rank below 200th. In other words, this will be the weakest defense the Badgers have faced since December. UW faced a total of 3 defenses this year ranked lower than Colgate in efficiency (Illinois State, St Francis, and UWGB) and they averaged 81 PPG in those games. On the other end of the court, Colgate ranks 11th in the nation in eFG% and 2nd in 3 point % hitting over 40% as a team. They have 6 players in the regular rotation that hit 35% or better from deep. The Badger defense is a step down from previous seasons ranking 147th in eFG% allowed and 98th in 3 point % allowed so we expect the Raiders to have some success offensively. Neither team does well forcing turnovers and offensively neither turns the ball over so there won’t be many wasted possessions. Our projections have this total at 145 to some definite value with the Over in our opinion. |
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03-18-22 | Mavs v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:10 PM ET - Yes, we know just how hot the Mavericks have been, but we like the situation to fade them here. Dallas is coming off a huge last second win over Brooklyn on Wednesday night and we expect a letdown here. Philly is coming off a win in Cleveland, but they didn’t play well so expect a rebound here back at home. The Mavs were recently a +6.5-point underdog at Boston which means this line is off by a few points. Philadelphia was a home favorite of -3.5-points two games ago at home against Denver who rates higher than the Mavs in our power index. The Mavs don’t have anyone that can match up with Joel Embiid who is scoring nearly 30PPG with 11.4 rebounds per game this season. This is a great opportunity to back a low home favorite that is underpriced given the circumstances. |
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03-18-22 | Notre Dame v. Alabama -3.5 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -3.5 over Notre Dame, Friday at 4:15 PM ET - Talk about a rough spot for ND. Not only did they play a double OT game on Wednesday that didn’t end until after midnight ET, they had to travel 2,200 miles to San Diego to play less than 40 hours later. The Irish basically played only 6 players with all 6 topping 33 minutes played and 3 players topping 40 minutes. Bama is ultra talented. They don’t always “show up” so to speak but they have potential future NBA players in Davison, Ellis, and Quinerly. When they are on, they are very good having beaten the likes of Gonzaga & Baylor (#1 seeds) along with Tennessee, Houston, Arkansas, LSU, and Miami FL, all NCAA tourney teams. We expect them to bring their “A” game now in the Big Dance. The Tide played the toughest schedule in the country per Ken Pom (ND 67th in schedule strength) and their PPP differential is better than the Irish despite that that (+18 points per 100 possessions to +14 for ND). Bama does struggle at times with TO’s but that shouldn’t hurt them here as the Irish are one of the worst in the nation (334th) at creating takeaways. Notre Dame is a solid shooting team but should have tired legs here vs an athletic defense that gives up just 0.98 PPP. The Irish beat just ONE team this season ranked inside the Ken Pom top 30 while Bama has 6 wins over teams in the top 20 per Ken Pom including 4 wins vs the top 10. Alabama, currently 25th, takes down the Irish on Friday. |
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03-17-22 | San Francisco v. Murray State UNDER 137 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
#731/732 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137 Points – San Francisco vs Murray State, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. USF ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency (0.92 PPP) and allows 66 PPG. Murray State ranks 40th in defensive efficiency (0.95 PPP) and allows 61 PPG. The Dons do like to play fast but the slower team quite often controls tempo. Despite their nickname the Racers, Murray State is a slow paced team ranking 246th in adjusted tempo. They’ve held 24 of their 32 opponents this season to less than 70 points. If you subtract USF’s 3 games vs Gonzaga (#1 in the country in offensive efficiency), they allowed just 66 PPG in WCC play. Both teams defend the 3 point line very well (9th and 13th nationally) and neither teams scores many points from the FT line. That means most of the scoring here will come from inside the arc and 2’s are much better than 3’s when playing the Under. Lastly, both teams shoot below 70% from the FT line for the season. With this spread being just 1point, we expect a close game that is a one or two possession game late. That usually slows the game way down entering the final minutes as each offensive possession in crucial. Under is our wager on this game. |
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03-17-22 | South Dakota State v. Providence -2 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Providence -2 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - SDSU has become a way too popular underdog in this game. We basically need the Friars to just win the game with the current number. Many have brought up the Friars “luck” on the season as they’ve won a number of close games. However, the fact is, they know how to win those games and they won the Big East regular season title with a 14-3 conference record. Their only regular season conference losses were @ Marquette and 2 losses to Villanova, a 2-seed in the Dance, by 2 & 5 points. South Dakota State won the Summit League title but that is a league without a single team, besides SDSU, ranked in the top 100. The Jackrabbits played only 4 top 100 teams all season long going 2-2 in those games beating Washington State & Bradley while losing to Bama & Missouri State. The last top 100 team SDSU faced was back on December 15th. Providence played 17 games vs top 100 teams with a record of 12-5 SU. SDSU’s offensive numbers are very good but let’s take into account they did not face a top 130 defense in conference play. The Summit League is known for poor defenses with 4 of their 10 teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and 8 of the 10 outside the top 200. Providence will be the best defense they’ve faced since early December. The Friars played 9 games this season without either Reeves or Bynum, two of their best players, but are 100% healthy entering the tourney. They have a big size advantage inside and should control the glass in this game. The Friars can shoot it a little as well as they were the best 3-point shooting team in Big East play and they have one of the better big men in this tourney, Nate Watson (14 PPG, 6 RPG). With this line sitting not far from pick-em we’ll fade possibly the most popular dog in round one and side with Providence. |
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03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers +1.5 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#696 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +1 over Notre Dame, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET - We have Rutgers rated as the better team here and as of this writing, we’re getting points. Rutgers played in the much tougher conference so they faced the tougher schedule (34th SOS for Rutgers / 68th SOS for Notre Dame). The Scarlet Knights were 6-6 this year in Quad 1 Games (Home vs top 30 NET teams + Neutral site vs top 50 teams + Away vs top 75 teams). Notre Dame was 2-8 in their Quad 1 games. If we throw in Quad 2 results as well, the Irish were only 4-9 in those games. Not impressive. Along those lines, Notre Dame had just 3 wins all season vs teams ranked in the top 75 on Ken Pom. Rutgers has 8 wins this season vs teams currently ranked in the top 75. That doesn’t tell the whole story as in fact all 8 of those wins came vs teams ranked in the top 40! The Irish rely very heavily on the 3 point shot which we don’t always love when playing at an unfamiliar venue. They score just 46% of their points inside the arc which is 311th nationally. Rutgers, on the other hand, scores nearly 58% of their points inside the arc and they are facing a ND defense that struggles to defend inside. In fact, the Irish have allowed their opponents to score 57% of their points from 2 point range which is 23rd most in the nation. We think Rutgers controls the inside and unless ND shoots lights out from deep, we’ll be OK here. ND played 2 Big 10 teams this year and lost by 10 vs Illinois and by 8 vs Indiana. Rutgers played 1 ACC team this season and beat Clemson by 10. The Scarlet Knights have been a money maker as a dog this season with an 11-5 ATS record and we like them to win this game |
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03-16-22 | Hawks v. Hornets OVER 237.5 | Top | 106-116 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 237.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - Very rarely will you find us on an Over when the number in nearly 240 points but today we break the rules. Both of these two teams are getting into the 120’s tonight with a pair of high powered offenses and bad defenses. The Hornets have put up 121 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and are coming off a 142 outburst and 134 in consecutive games. They’ve also given up more than 120 in 4 of their last eight games. Atlanta has had back to back games with 131 and 122 points and have scored 122 or more in 4 of their last nine. Charlotte gives up nearly 115PPG on the season which is 28th in the NBA. Atlanta allows 112PPG which ranks 21st. The Hawks have been one of the most efficient offenses all season long ranking 2nd behind only Utah. Since the All Star break the Hornets have produced the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers at 1.216-points per possession. Charlotte will force the tempo here at home and the Hawks will efficiently score. It results in an easy OVER. |
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03-15-22 | Oregon v. Utah State -4.5 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -4.5 over Oregon, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Ducks will most likely have zero interest in playing this game. They are on the road, in the NIT, vs a MWC team. This is an Oregon team who tanked it down the stretch. They were in line for a highly probably NCAA bid in mid February with a 17-8 record, 10-4 in the Pac 12. They proceeded to drop 6 of their final 8 games to officially drop out of NCAA consideration. This is not where this team wanted to be. They are also shorthanded with starting PG Richardson and leading scorer (14 PPG) mostly likely out for the 4th consecutive game. The Ducks are 1-3 with him out of the line up with their only win coming over last place Oregon State. On top of that, starting F Dante (8 PPG, 6 RPG) missed practice on Sunday with an injury. We envision this team showing up and playing out the string in this one. USU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be hosting a Pac 12 team in the NIT. They stated as much on Sunday night. They rarely host a high major type team. In fact, the last time the Aggies played host to a Power 5 team was way back on 2014 when the topped USC here by 13 points. They will be pumped for this game. Not only that, they are a very solid team. They rank in the top 50 in offensive efficiency and in the top 25 in eFG%. They shoot 48% at home and win by an average margin of +11 points. They are a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up. Oregon underachieved all season with a terrible 12-20 ATS record and we don’t expect that to change tonight. USU is the play. |
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03-15-22 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA allowing 104.8PPG which is the 4th lowest number in the league. They have the 4th best overall FG% defense, 6th in defending the 3-point line and 1st in rebounding. Miami should be able to contain a Pistons offense that 29th in scoring, FG%, 3PT% and 27th in rebounding. Offensively the Heat rank 17th in the league in scoring at 109.4PPG. The Pistons are 18th in defensive efficiency on the season and have been better on that end of the floor recently by allowing 106 or less points in 3 of their last six games. What’s most important here will be the pace of play. The Heat are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA on the season while the Pistons have been the 2nd slowest team since the All-Star break. Two of the three meetings between these two teams have been in the 190’s. This game won’t be that low but it will stay Under 216. |
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03-15-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Texas Southern OVER 136 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
#663/664 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Over 136 Points – Texas A&M CC vs Texas Southern, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Both of these teams love to play fast and get out in transition. We should see lots of possessions in this game which opens up the door for more points. They average 72 & 74 possessions per game and because both like to play up tempo, we should see more than that in this game. Another key here will be the FT line. Both defenses foul a lot. TA&MCC allows opponents to score over 24% of their points from the FT line (7th most nationally) and TSU allows over 20% in that category (70th most in the nation). We look for lots of points coming from the stripe in this one and in what should be a close game, scrambling at the end with the team behind fouling in the last few minutes depending on the score is open here. One other situation that should lead to some point blank scoring opportunities is the fact that both teams are very good on the offensive boards, while neither are good on the defensive boards. That should lead to extra possessions on both ends and a number of putbacks along the way. Neither team has great shooting stats but because of the situations we discussed above, they find ways to put points on the board. Southern has scored at least 70 points in 7 of their last 8 games and A&MCC has put up at least 70 points in 13 of their last 15 games. Take the OVER here. |
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03-14-22 | Wizards v. Warriors OVER 224.5 | Top | 112-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 224.5 Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - This is a marginal Over-Under based on the overall NBA season averages and we expect both teams to get to 115 or more. The Warriors are going to put up points in this game against a Wizards defense that has allowed 115 or more points in five straight games. Most alarming is the 127 they just allowed to a Portland offense that has REALLY struggled scoring 95 or less points in 5 of their last seven games. The Warriors are starting to find their offensive groove again and are coming off a 122-point showing against a solid Bucks defense last time out. Since the All-Star Break the Warriors are averaging 116.3PPG and 1.182-points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA. Coincidentally, the Wizards have the 5th best offensive efficiency average since the Break while scoring over 117PPG. Golden State is going to feast on this defense and the Wiz will put up their fare share of points as well. The bet here is OVER! |
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03-13-22 | Mavs +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 3:30 PM ET - The Celtics have been playing lights out and garnering a ton of media attention which has driven this line higher than it should be. If I ask you which of these teams has a better overall record you would be quick to tell me Boston. If I were to say who has won 12 of their last fifteen you would probably reply Boston. In reality the team I’m talking about is Dallas. The Mavs have flown under the radar for most of the season and are the bet in this situation. Dallas owns the 8th best average point differential in the NBA at +3.1PPG. Boston is slightly better at +5.7PPG. Boston owns a slightly better overall offensive efficiency rating but both are near equal defensively ranking 3rd (Boston) and 5th (Dallas). Boston has the 5th best home average margin of victory in the league at +5.7PPG but Dallas holds the 7th best road differential at +1.7PPG. Dallas has been an underdog of more than +7.5 points just three times this season and they are perfect against the spread in those games or 3-0 ATS. Boston hasn’t faired well as a bigger favorite this season with a 7-11 ATS mark when laying -7.5 or more points. Dallas has covered 9 of the last 12 meetings in Beantown. Grab the points. |
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03-13-22 | Richmond v. Davidson -3.5 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Davidson -3.5 over Richmond, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - While Richmond is playing for a spot in the Big Dance, we think this is a terrible spot for them. It’s the Spiders 4th game in 4 days and to be honest, they’ve been a bit lucky to get to this spot. They’ve held their first 3 opponents to just 25% from 3-point land which is a big time outlier as the Spiders rank 211th nationally and 11th in the A10 at defending the arc. They now play a Davidson team that ranks 7th nationally shooting from deep hitting almost 39% of their 3’s. They also rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency and 11th in eFG%. Richmond has also held their first 3 opponents in this tourney to just 62 PPG which is more than 10 points below what they gave up per game during the season. Tired legs playing their 4th straight game will make it very tough today vs one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Richmond was down 15 in the 2nd half yesterday vs Dayton and made a furious comeback to win a close won. They led for a total of 2 minutes the entire game. Davidson is well rested and ready here. They blew out Fordham to open the tourney and they destroyed a very good St Louis team yesterday. The Wildcats have been able to spread out their minutes with 8 players playing double digit minutes in each game. They are also playing their 3rd game in this tourney while Richmond is playing their 4th. These 2 met once this season and Davidson won that game @ Richmond. We realize this is a huge game for the Spiders, but teams that “have to” win don’t always win. We think they run out of gas here vs the better team. Lay the number. |
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03-12-22 | Cavs v. Bulls -3 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 over Cleveland Cavaliers - The Cavs are coming off a big game last night in Miami and have a tough matchup here against a highly motivated Bulls team that is 1-5 SU their last six games. The lack of rest for the Cavaliers is magnified in this game as they are missing two of their top 6 players with LeVert and Allen sidelined. With rest advantage the Bulls are 12-5 SU (10-7 ATS) +3.4PPG in those 17 contests. The home team has won 4 straight in this rivalry, both games this season. The Bulls are 24-10 SU this season at home with a +/- of 4.4PPG. Chicago will get starting center Vucevik back here and likely LaVine. Chicago has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the league this season, the Cavs rank 19th. Given the scheduling circumstances we like the Bulls to get a 8 or more point win here. |
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03-12-22 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 62-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
#611 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky -2.5 over Tennessee, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UK was hoping for this rematch in the SEC tourney and they got it. The Cats have won 11 of their last 13 games and one of those losses was @ Tennessee and it just happened to be Kentucky’s most lopsided loss of the season. They lost 76-63 and trailed by as many as 20 points late in the game. The Wildcats shot just 34% from the field, well below their season average of 49% which is 12th best in the country. They averaged just 0.94 PPP also way below their season average of 1.21 PPP (4th best in the nation). The Vols made 47% of their 3’s in that game which propelled them to the win. They need to make their 3’s to have a chance to win as UT is poor offensively inside the arc ranking 14th in the SEC in 2 point FG%. Kentucky is one of the best 3 point defensive teams in the nation – ranked 26th – so we don’t expect Tennessee to hit anywhere near 47% in today’s game. On the other end, Kentucky is the best 3 point shooting team in the SEC at 39% but made just 31% in their loss @ UT a few weeks ago. UK is the #1 offensive team in the league in efficiency, eFG%, 3 point %, and scoring. They are only a slight step behind Tennessee defensively. The Cats have the superior PPP differential in SEC play and they are the better team. Despite their recent loss to Tennessee, the Wildcats rolled UT in their first meeting 107-79. We’ll lay the small number with Kentucky. |
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03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -3.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
#830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3.5 over Richmond, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - VCU has been the better team all season long and this is simply a poor match up for Richmond. The Rams won both games rolling at home by 20 points and winning on the road by 2. In their road game which they won by 2, Richmond took 7 more shots and 14 more FT’s and STILL lost at home which speaks to the Rams just being that much better. In the 2nd meeting when the attempts were more equal (VCU took 6 more shot and both attempted 18 FT’s) the Rams rolled to a huge win. VCU’s defense, which ranks 4th nationally in efficiency & 3rd in eFG% allowed, completely shut down Richmond’s offense holding them to 0.89 and 0.91 points per possession. The Spiders shot just 36% in the two meetings combined and made only 21% of their 3’s. That’s not an outlier as we mentioned VCU has a defense that is nearly 2nd to none nationally. VCU’s offense was successful vs a Richmond defense that ranks 9th in the A10 in efficiency and 11th in eFG% allowed. The Rams made 48% of their shots in the 2 meetings with Richmond. VCU led by 23 and 10 points in each of their games vs Richmond while the Spiders largest lead in either was 8 points and that was in the first half of one match up. IN the 2 meetings combined, the Spiders led for a grand total of 30 seconds in the 2nd half! Richmond beat Rhode Island yesterday but had to make a big 2nd half comeback to do so. They trailed by 15 in the 2nd half vs URI who ranks as the 8th best team (power rankings) in the A10. VCU gets another win and moves on in the A10 tourney. |
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03-11-22 | Hornets v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | Top | 142-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Charlotte Hornets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans will be shorthanded on Friday night as Ingram and McCollum are both out of this contest. That will make scoring incredibly hard for the Pelicans as those two combine for 45PPG and we don’t see that production coming from other players that easily. The Hornets defense has been bad all season long, allowing 115PPG, but without Ingram and McCollum on the floor they won’t look as bad as usual. New Orleans is allowing 109PPG which ranks them 14th in the NBA but since the All-Star break, they rank 2nd best in the league in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.069-points per possession. On the season the Hornets are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league but since the break they have slowed considerably to rank 18th. Charlotte is 5-0 Under when coming off a loss, Pelicans Under in 9 of their last twelve when off a loss. |
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03-11-22 | Texas A&M v. Auburn OVER 139.5 | Top | 67-62 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
#831/832 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 140 Points – Texas A&M vs Auburn, Friday at 12 PM ET - Our power ratings have this total set at 144 so we like the value on the Over here. Auburn is one of the faster paced (41st in the nation) and higher scoring teams in the country (80 PPG). They have scored at least 80 points in 11 of their 18 conference games and 17 of their 31 games overall. They are facing an A&M offense who’s overall numbers are solid (73 PPG) and they are peaking on that end of the court right now. The Aggies are on a 5 game winning streak and they’ve averaged 80 PPG during that stretch. A key reason this number is set lower than we think it should be was the result from their one meeting this season. Auburn won that game 75-58 so only 133 total points were scored. However a closer look reveals that the teams were both terrible offensively. A&M shot 27% from the field (17% below their season average) and Auburn made only 40% of their shot attempts (5% below their average). You think that’s bad, take a look at their 3 point numbers. The 2 combined to make 6 three pointers the entire game on a whopping 47 attempts (12%)! It was a face paced game as expected with 138 shot attempts AND 49 FT attempts. Expect the same here but we anticipate both teams to shoot much better pushing this well over the total. These teams are a combined 39-23 to the OVER this season and we expect to add another here. |
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03-10-22 | Warriors -1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -1.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - At first glance, why are the Warriors favored in this game? This number is a drastic swing from the Nuggets recently being an 8-point home favorite over the Warriors, but it’s warranted given these circumstances. Denver is coming off a game last night in Sacramento, playing their 3rd day and 4th in five days. The Nuggets are 5-7 on the season when playing without rest with a negative differential. Golden State just lost here in Denver 3 days ago, but they opted to sit all of their starters and were still competitive, losing by 7-points. The Warriors had lost 5 straight games but got a much-needed win against the Clippers on Tuesday. These two teams have near identical offensive numbers, but defensively the Warriors are much better. Golden State ranks top 5 defensively in points allowed FG% D, 3PT% D and rebounding. Golden State is playing with revenge and rested and the oddsmakers clearly are baiting you into backing Denver. We won’t bite! |
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03-10-22 | Penn State +5.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
#719 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State +5 over Ohio State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - PSU will slow this game to a crawl making the points more valuable in a projected low scoring game (total is currently 130). They are the better defensive team (50th nationally in efficiency to 122nd for OSU) and they rarely get blown out. Of PSU’s 16 losses, 10 have come by 7 points or less and only once since February 1st have they lost by more than 6 points. The Buckeyes are trending downward entering this tourney. They have lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins during that stretch came in OT and by 3 points. Key reserve Kyle Young (3rd leading scorer) has been out the last 3 games due to concussion protocol and will miss this game today. Starting F Zed Key has an ankle injury and may not play today, if he does he is not at 100%. OSU is already in the Big Dance and this tourney might not be as important as simply getting healthy. Head coach Chris Holtmann said as much this week stating, “Obviously it’s important for us to get healthy.” These 2 met once this year in Columbus and PSU took the Buckeyes to the wire losing 61-56. PSU played that game without Seth Lundy, their 2nd leading scorer at 12 PPG. OSU made 24 FT’s in that win to just 8 for the Nittany Lions and it still went to the wire. We like the fact that Penn State played here last night beating Minnesota by 9 points. It gave them a feel for the venue (Pacers home court) and 2 games in 2 days is not necessarily a negative as some make it out to be. We actually view it as a positive (at times) when playing in an unfamiliar arena. 3 games in 3 days or 4 in 4 can become a negative but not 2 in 2 (most of the time). We give Penn State a solid shot at the upset here but have the +5 as a solid cushion. |
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03-09-22 | Magic v. Pelicans UNDER 223 | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We are grabbing the extra value with the Under in this game as our model is predicting a lower possession and scoring game. We are weighing both teams' current play more than their regular season numbers in this handicap which projects 216 total points being scored. Since the All-Star break these two teams rank 1st and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency allowing less than 1.066-points per possession. Those numbers are significantly better than their overall averages for the season as they rank 19th and 20th respectively. Granted, the Pels have been much more efficient offensively since acquiring CJ McCollum, but the Magic hold the 2nd worst offensive efficiency ratings since the break at 1.042PPP. Both teams are coming off a game last night which factors in here as they Magic games have averaged less than 210 total points per game when Orlando isn’t rested. Orlando is 8-3 Under their last eleven in this scheduling situation. When New Orleans is playing the second night of a back-to-back those games have averaged 217.2PPG. The last 12 times the Pelicans have been a home favorite they stayed Under the number in nine of those games. With both team’s 20th or worse in scoring we can’t see this game getting into the 220’s. |
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03-09-22 | Hawks +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - We will start with the obvious here and the fact the Bucks have been horrendous at home as a favorite this season with a 11-20 ATS record and a +/- of +5.3PPG in those games. Milwaukee is just 4-3 SU their last 7 at home and just can't get untracked at home. Scheduling clearly favors the Hawks with the Bucks coming off a game Tuesday night in OKC and they are just 3-8 ATS this season when playing without rest. Milwaukee is also playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and have a much bigger game on deck at Golden State. We like the Hawks who are rested and coming off an embarrassing loss to Detroit on Monday night as an 8-point favorite. Atlanta is 8th in offensive efficiency since the All-Star break, 17th in DEFF 1.150PPP which is drastically better than their season average of 27th allowing 1.146-points per possession. Since the break the Hawks have a +3.3 PPG differential. Atlanta is a matchup problem for the Bucks as they’ve beaten them twice this season already. Hawks 13-5 ATS their last eighteen meetings in Milwaukee |
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03-09-22 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech -5 | Top | 75-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
#648 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -5 over Clemson, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Clemson and the Tigers pulled out a 63-59 win. The Hokies came into that game on a red hot run winning 9 of their previous 10 games. They played well below their offensive averages on Saturday putting up just 0.97 PPP (they average 1.13 PPP – 28th nationally) and shot just 37% for the game (they average 47% on the season). They are also one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the nation (4th hitting 39% of their triples) yet made just 30% in Saturday’s loss. Clemson pretty much hit their average with 1.04 PPP but weren’t able to pull away at home in a game that was tight throughout. The Tigers largest lead of the entire game was 6 points despite Tech’s poor offensive performance. Now we get a shot with the better team with quick revenge. Clemson is coming off a win yesterday over last place NC State (won by 6) but shot only 42% vs the worst defense in the ACC. Tonight the Tigers face a team that is better offensively, better defensively, and nearly beat them on the road despite playing poorly. We’ll lay this short number with Va Tech. |
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03-09-22 | St. Joe's -2 v. La Salle | Top | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
#651 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Joes -2 over LaSalle, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - These 2 have the same conference record at 5-13 but St Joes is the better team (Ken Pom ranked 157th to 231st for LaSalle) and they should have some extra motivation here vs their Philly rival. These 2 met twice this year, St Joes was favored in both and lost both. The Hawks blew big leads in both games leading by 15 & 14 points. Their most recent meeting was @ LaSalle one week ago today and the host overcame that big deficit to pull out a 49-48 win. St Joes (-1) led that road game by 12 at half and scored only 12 points the entire 2nd half. They shot 27% overall and 29% from beyond the arc and STILL almost won the game on the road. LaSalle led the game for a grand total of 2 minutes! St Joes is the much better defensive team ranking 3rd in the A10 in eFG% allowed (LaSalle ranks 12th) and they are the better shooting team both inside and outside the arc and they have the better PPP differential in league play. The Hawks get more points from 3 point range than any other team in the conference and they are facing a LaSalle defense that ranks 318th nationally defending the arc. We like St Joes to improve drastically on their 29% three point effort from last week and pick up a nice win here. The favorite is 19-9-2 ATS the last 30 meetings between these 2 heated rivals. Lay it with St Joes. |
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03-08-22 | Suns v. Magic UNDER 221 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The Suns are missing several key components here with Johnson, Booker and Paul all out. Those three players account for over 53PPG for the Suns. Orlando has had difficulty scoring all season long with the 2nd worst overall offensive efficiency in the NBA at .993-points per possession. Scoring will be even more difficult for the Magic here going up against a Suns defense that is 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Not to mention, the Suns are coming off an embarrassing defensive showing against the Bucks last time out in which they allowed 132-points. Despite a 16-49 SU record the Magic have the 20th ranked DEFF numbers on the year and since the All-Star break they are 2nd in defensive efficiency at 1.070PPP. The Suns road games have averaged 219.5 total points per game, the Magic home games 215.8PPG. The Suns have stayed Under the Total in 15 of their last twenty-one games when coming off a loss. The Magic are on a 4-1 Under streak overall. The bet here is UNDER. |
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03-08-22 | Wright State v. Northern Kentucky OVER 134 | Top | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
#613/614 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – Wright State vs Northern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This total opened at 138 and has dropped to 134.5 as of this writing. That gives us some very solid value on the Over here. These 2 met twice this year and the totals in those games were set at 145.5 and 139. In those 2 games the teams combined for 136 points and 146 points. NKY won both games. In both games Northern Kentucky averaged 1.06 PPP which is dead on with their seasonal conference average. Wright State, on the other hand, averaged just 0.91 PPP and 1.00 PPP in those 2 games which is WAY below their season average of 1.13 in conference play. That ranks the Raiders #1 in the Horizon in offensive efficiency and they rank #2 in the league scoring 77 PPG. They scored 63 and 71 points in their 2 meetings with NKY this season. The Raiders are also ranked 2nd in the conference making just under 47% of their shots and they made 37% and 40% in those 2 match ups. Northern Kentucky is solid defensively ranking 2nd in the league in efficiency (172nd nationally) and 3rd in eFG% allowed (148th nationally) but nowhere near a shut down type defense that should stymie the #1 offense in the league. WSU is one of the fastest paced teams in the conference and NKY one of the slowest, but they averaged 57.5 shot attempts each in their 2 meetings which is a decent amount. If N Kentucky puts up around 1.06 PPP again as they did in the first 2 meetings and Wright State performs just a bit better than they did, which would still be well below their average, this goes Over. |
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03-07-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +7.5 | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Pistons have looked like a completely different team since the trade deadline which has led to a 5-2 SU record in their last seven games as they gun for their 3rd straight win tonight. The Pistons wins have been solid too as they’ve beaten the Raptors, Hornets, Cavs and Celtics in that stretch. Detroit continues to be under-valued by the oddsmakers and it shows in their ATS streak which now stands at 7 covers in a row. The Hawks are making a playoff push themselves and have also won 5 of their last seven and two in a row but this isn’t a great spot for them, off a win and facing the Bucks next. In their last five games the Pistons have shown a dramatic improvement in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and they have an average +/- of -0.8PPG. The Hawks average +/- in their last five games is +4.6PPG which clearly doesn’t get a cover in this match up. Atlanta is 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average MOV of minus -2.2PPG. The Hawks may get a win here but it’s going to be close. Grab the dog and points. |
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