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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-23-13 | Chicago Bears -3 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 96 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ART OF WAR" on the Chicago Bears.
New Bears coach Marc Trestman got "off the schneid" with a 33-28 win over the Chargers last week and I'm expecting Chicago to carry that momentum over into the all important Week 3 contest in Oakland this evening. RB Matt Forte had 74-yards off eight carries, including a TD, while Michael Bush had 11 carries for 37 yards and a major score as well. Starting QB Jay Cutler was an efficient 4 of 5 for 38 yards, one TD and one INT, while Brandon Marshall would haul in four catches for 38 yards and a TD. Oakland fell 28-20 in New Orleans last week. QB Matt Flynn was 12 of 16 for 124 yards and a TD in the setback. RB Darren McFadden had a tough time vs. a Saints defense which struggled against the run last year, gaining just 17 yards on five carries. Oakland looked horrible overall basically and now faces arguably the best defensive unit in the NFL. Chicago is stacked across the line and in every position in the secondary. Conversely, the Raiders finished 31st in the league in getting to the QB a year ago and will face a stiff test in getting past this bulky bears O-line this evening. Expect Chicago to be efficient offensively and nasty defensively and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. AAA |
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08-23-13 | Seattle Seahawks -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 94 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* "SUPER-BLOWOUT" on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Hawks smashed the Broncos 40-10 last week as starting QB Russell Wilson had two TD passes; suffice it to say, I expect Seattle to carry that momentum over here. Wilson would finish 8 of 12 for 127 yards. The 'Hawks special teams were also on full display last week as Jermaine Kearse had a 107-yard kickoff return for a TD; not to be outdone, Brandon Browner returned a fumble for 106 yards for a major score as well: "I felt like we were doing things how we like to do them," said Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll afterwards. Green Bay beat the Rams 19-7 last week with starting QB Aaron Rodgers going 10 of 12 for 134 yards. The Pack would bounce back after being shutout by the Cardinals in their preseason opener. RB Eddie Lacy had 40 yards on eight carries. Seattle has suddenly become a pretty fashionable pick to win the Super Bowl this year; I'm not entirely convinced myself but definitely feel that the Seahawks will field the better squad in Lambeau today. Carroll puts a ton of emphasis on preseason games and there's none more important than the third one. Expect Seattle's swarming defense to control the pace of this contest and for Russell and company to do just enough to earn the victory. Lay the short points. AAA |
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08-23-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* "RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION" on the Cincinnati Reds.
Yovani Gallardo (4-4, 4.68 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Gallardo is actually coming off a win over this very same Reds team on Saturday, returning from the DL to allow just three hits over 6 1/3 shutout frames. Gallardo has been the very model of inconsistency this year though and he'll bring his unremarkable 4-4, 4.62 ERA road record into Cincinnati to throw opposite Homer Bailey (8-10, 3.68 ERA) who is coming off a third-straight winning decision vs. the Brewers last Sunday, giving up one run off three hits with one walk while striking out eight over eight innings in his team's eventual 9-1 victory. The veteran has now allowed five earned runs over his last two combined starts. Bailey for the most part has been the very model of consistency this season and will now look to improve upon his very respectable 4-2, 3.39 ERA home record vs. this up-and-down Brewers lineup. Cincinnati lost two of three in Milwaukee last weekend, but responded by taking three of four from Arizona this week; suffice it to say, I expect the home side to avenge that series loss to the Brewers and to build off the momentum that it clearly created vs. the Diamondbacks. Coupled with what I deem to be a clear talent discrepancy on the mound, I have no problems whatsoever laying the 1.5 runs in a game which I expect to be a never in doubt laugher. AAA |
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08-22-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Baltimore Ravens -3 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ASSASSIN" on the Baltimore Ravens.
While they're 2-0 to start the season, I don't believe we'll see any drop off in intensity from the defending champions today and expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover tonight. Last week Baltimore would rally and score 20 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Atlanta Falcons 27-23. Asa Jackson capped off the comeback with a 78-yard punt return. Starting QB Joe Flacco was 7 for 9 for 118 yards with one TD and one INT; backup Tyrod Taylor was 5 for 9 for 83 yards and a pair of TDs. Torrey Smith was the main recipient of all that offense, making two catches for 85 yards and a TD. "When you play you try to win," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said afterwards. "That's why they keep score. So I'm happy about that. But there are things you can correct and they have to get done if we're going to be the team that we hope to be." Carolina fell 14-9 in Philadelphia last week. Starting QB Cam Newton looked pretty shaky, going 8 of 17 for 112 yards. RB DeAngelo Williams had 12 carries for just 39 yards. It was a definite step back for the team after beating Chicago in its opener. The third week of the preseason is about getting all of the starters a chance to play for most of the game and as such, I expect the Super Bowl Champs to take care of business at home, covering the spread easily with a resounding victory in front of the home town crowd; lay the points. AAA |
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08-22-13 | New England Patriots +2.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 9-40 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ASSASSIN" on the New England Patriots.
Both teams have enjoyed success in the preseason to this point, but with the third week on deck, they will for the most part be playing "for real" tonight and as such, I look for New England to take control from the opening kick-off until the final horn. Last week Tom Brady and the Pats would finish off the Buccaneers 25-21 as Brady was 11 for 12 for 107 yards and a TD. Next in line was QB Ryan Mallett, who had 137 yards and a major score. Danny Amendola had 71 yards on six receptions as well as a TD strike from Brady. Even Tim Tebow got in on the act, going just 1 of 7 with his passes, but rushing for 30 yards. After their Week 1 win, the Lions would stumble 24-6 in Cleveland last week. Starting QB Matt Stafford was 11 of 16 for 74 yards. RB Reggie Bush had just 15 yards on eight carries. For me this play comes down to which team I believe is the "better" overall club. Detroit would finish 4-12 in 2012, losing its final eight games of the season and while it does possess some incredibly skilled players on both sides of the ball, it simply does not have the firepower, willpower or coaching staff to keep pace with the Pats today; while the outright win isn't out of the question, grab the short points. AAA |
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08-21-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* "RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION" on the Detroit Tigers.
Kevin Correia (8-9, 4.61 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Correia got shelled for five runs off nine hits with one walk over 7 1/3's innings in his team's eventual 5-2 setback vs. the White Sox on Friday. Correia has now given up 10 earned runs over his last 16 1/3's frames of work. The veteran will take his deplorable 3-7, 6.10 ERA road record into Detroit to throw opposite Anibal Sanchez (11-7, 2.50 ERA) who dominated the Royals on Thursday, giving up one run off seven hits with one walk while striking out five over 7 1/3's innings in his team's 4-1 victory. The Tigers' starter has now allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last ten starts. While past success guarantees nothing in the future, Sanchez can throw with the added confidence today in knowing that he's for the most part dominated the Twins in four starts this year, going 1-1 with a minuscule 1.90 ERA. Also note that Sanchez has a huge opportunity here to improve upon his already stellar 7-2, 1.98 ERA record in friendly confines vs. this inconsistent Twins lineup. For me, my MLB selections come down to starting pitching and situations; in this case, Sanchez and the Tigers should in fact be much bigger favs, and as such, I have absolutely no problem whatsoever laying the 1.5 runs for the near-pick em price in a contest which I believe will ultimately turn out to be a never in doubt laugher. AAA |
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08-18-13 | Indianapolis Colts +2.5 v. NY Giants | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 143 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* "BLOOD-BATH" on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Bills surprised not only the Colts, but also most of the nation in handing Indianapolis a 44-20 loss in Week 1. Let's not get overly excited about either of those results though, remember, this is the time of year that rookies and wannabe's take center stage for the most part. QB Andrew Luck was 4 of 6 for 51 yards; Chandler Harnish was 14 of 33 for 109 yards and an INT. Matt Hasselbeck threw a 45-yard TD strike to T.Y. Hilton, who caught three balls in total for 61-yards. There were a few defensive glimmers of hope last week for Indianapolis including Dax Swanson returning a fumble for 72 yards for a TD. A big relief for Colts fans will be seeing Coby Fleener in the lineup tonight after a fear of him having a concussion was confirmed as negative following the Bills game. New York is coming off an 18-13 win over the Steelers on the road last week. Starting QB Eli Manning would connect with Victor Cruz early and the Giants would never look back. Other than the strike to Cruz, Manning wasn't overly impressive though, going 2 of 5 for 73 yards. RB David Wilson had five carries for 16 yards. Defensively New York looked pretty good, DE Damontre Moore would block a punt and had four tackles. But the victory came at a cost as WR Kris Adams would fracture his leg; also note that the G-Men took a scare this week in practice when safety Antrel Rolle sprained an ankle, meaning he'll be out until Game 1 of the regular season. With the added incentive on the defensive side of the ball that I expect Indianapolis to play with this week, I believe that the visitors obviously have a very good chance of winning outright. As we all know, the preseason is almost entirely about testing out backups and wannabe's and while for the most part that will be the case today for both sides, this game would seem to mean a lot more to the Colts because of the way they lost last week. A couple of strong motivational factors working in favor of Indianapolis turn out to be the difference; grab the short-points. AAA |
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08-18-13 | Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* "RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION" on the Detroit Tigers.
Bruce Chen (5-0, 1.62 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Chen has been impressive thus far since being inserted into the rotation, having allowed just six total runs over his six starts. Chen though faces a very stiff test on the road vs. the hard-hitting Tigers and throwing opposite Max Scherzer (17-1, 2.85 ERA) who was fortunate to walk away with a no-decision vs. Chicago on Tuesday, giving up three runs off four hits with three walks over six innings. Despite the outcome, Scherzer has earned a victory in eight of his last 11 outings and he'll now look to improve upon his near-perfect 10-1, and extremely respectable 3.46 ERA home record vs. this inconsistent Royals lineup. After yesterday's exciting 6-5 bottom of the 9th walk off victory, I fully expect the home side to parlay that success behind a big effort today, jumping on top of Chen and easily covering the 1.5 runs in the process. AAA |
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08-17-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. NY Jets -2.5 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* "PLATINUM CLUB BLOWOUT" on the New York Jets.
These are two teams that struggled last year on both sides of the ball. Despite the backups and rookies seeing most of the action last week for both sides, unsurprisingly they each come into Week 2 sitting at 0-1. In this battle between inept teams, I can't understate how important that the "home field advantage" will be. The Jets lost 26-17 in Detroit last week. Mark Sanchez started that contest and he'll start this one too. Sanchez was up to his old tricks early by serving up an INT that was returned for a TD in his first offensive series, but did definitely settle down after that, going 10 of 13 for 125-yards and a major score. "I felt good throughout the duration of camp. I thought I threw the ball well. I was accurate," said Sanchez afterwards. "I did my best to take care of the ball and move the team down the field. I thought we did that really well in spurts. I thought we got a little more consistent as things went on. We just have to keep improving." Backup Geno Smith was an efficient 6 of 7 for 47 yards but rolled his ankle and had to leave early. So while the Jets showed some glimmers of hope on both sides the ball, the Jags meanwhile were just downright horrible in every facet of their 27-3 beatdown loss to the Dolphins last week. New head coach Gus Bradley watched his team commit four turnovers and muster just 289 total yards of offense. Like New York, the Jaguars will have a QB competition going on throughout the preseason; Chad Henne has 8 of 11 for 87 yards, while Blaine Gabbert was 5 of 10 for 19 yards. Overall the offense looked brutal, as the Jags would punt on their first three possessions with the final one ending in an INT. I like New York's QB rotation more in this matchup and believe that will in the end be the difference in this contest between these two sub-par clubs; play on the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. AAA |
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08-16-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New England Patriots -3.5 | Top | 21-25 | Win | 100 | 97 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
Tom Brady is expected to play a couple of series and he sure looked awesome in last week's 31-22 preseason opening win over the Eagles Friday, orchestrating back-to-back TD drives. RB Stevan Ridley also did his part, gaining 62-yards on the game's first offensive play and capping the first drive with a 1-yard TD rumble. Brady would finish with a 140.1 passer rating while Ridley had 92 rushing yards on just eight carries. However, Ridley wasn't even the best back on the field on the day for New England, as LeGarrett Blount would finish with 101 yards on 11 carries, including an impressive 51-yard TD run (note that the Pats would finish with 248 rushing yards on 31 total attempts). "We're a better football team now than we were before," said Brady. "And we've got to be a better football team at the end of next week than we are now. It's a building process. We've got a long way to go but it was fun to get out there and play the first real game in seven months." Tampa Bay looked "ok" for a few series in its preseason opener vs. the defending champion Ravens last week, but quickly stumbled, mercifully succumbing 44-16 in the end. Rookie QB Mike Glennon was decent, finishing with 169 passing yards, but wasn't overly impressive in his debut, completing just 11 of 23 passes and getting intercepted once (starter Josh Freeman had 34 yards on 4 of 7 passing). While it's true that New England is just 2-8 all time vs. the Bucs in preseason play, I believe that the Pats come out and take advantage of a Tampa Bay team which truly has more questions than answers on both sides of the ball and up and down each line; lay the short points on the "better" team. AAA |
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08-16-13 | Oakland Raiders v. New Orleans Saints -6 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 97 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
This will be New Orleans final preseason home game on the 2013 schedule and I expect the team to make the most of the friendly confines. I cashed with the Saints last weekend, saying that the return of coach Sean Payton to the sidelines would provide his team with a definite mental edge, which it would in New Orleans 17-13 win and cover. Preston Parker caught a pair of TD passes for the Saints. Starting QB Drew Brees was an efficient 7 of 10 for 65-yards, leading a 10-play 74-yard drive which ended in a 24-yard FG in the second quarter: "In the game, we had the two drives. I think we are progressing and progressing the way we want," Brees said. "We have to continue to improve no doubt." Saints' backup QB Luke McCown was under center for the home side the longest last week and was 18 of 28 for 216 yards and had the two TD passes to Parker. The Raiders would beat the Cowboys 19-17 last week; QB Matt Flynn was 4 of 5. Terrelle Pryor was 6 of 10 for 88 yards with an INT, while Matt McGloin was 4 of 7 for 78 yards and a major score. The Raiders were just 1-3 in the preseason a year ago, which included going 0-2 on the road (just 1-7 SU away from friendly confines in the regular season). New Orleans overwhelms the Raiders early and pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. AAA |
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08-16-13 | San Francisco 49ers +1.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 15-13 | Win | 100 | 97 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. |
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