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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-23-19 | St. Louis v. Duquesne +2 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Duquesne. Here's a play that I really love. Saint Louis is a good defensive team and unbeaten (5-0) in Atlantic 10 play. I wouldn't exactly be ready to trust the Billikens to go out and win a road game with this offense, which is rated an ugly 255th in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. The team isn't ranked, nor should it be, as so far all its done is taken advantage of a very week bottom of the A-10. They have won at LaSalle and Fordham, but those two are a combined 1-9 in conference play. In fact, four of the Billikens five A-10 victories have come against teams that are a combined 2-19 SU in conference play. Tonight they face Duquesne, who's no world beater, but does average 77.8 PPG at home where they are 11-2 straight up. Twice this season, the Dukes have been a home dog of three points or less. Both times they won the game. They're 4-1 ATS in that role the last three seasons. This will be called an upset by the national media, but really it isn't much of an upset at all. Play on DUQUESNE AAA |
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01-23-19 | Rockets v. Knicks +7 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the KNICKS The Knicks have very little going for them presently, but they are getting a nice number at home tonight against a Houston side that just got blown out Monday in Philadelphia. The Rockets reliance on James Harden, some would say over-reliance, has perhaps become a bit of a problem. Harden scored 37 on MLK Day, but the rest of the team did very little to support him, contributing only 56 points. Part of that is injuries to both Clint Capela and Chris Paul, which have them out of the lineup. Carmelo Anthony is long gone. Then again, offense doesn't matter much when you're giving up as many points as the Rockets have been lately. They are 4-12 ATS this season after giving up 115 or more points the last game. The Rockets are just 9-13 SU on the road this year, so I wouldn't put it past them to throw up another "clunker" tonight. Eventually, Harden's record-breaking streak of 30+ point games (now at 20 straight) is going to come to an end. Play NEW YORK AAA |
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01-22-19 | New Mexico v. UNLV -5.5 | Top | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNLV Two longtime Mt West rivals meet here in Sin City with UNLV hosting New Mexico. Everyone is chasing Nevada in this league and no one is likely to catch them. UNLV is a bit closer than New Mexico though as a win tonight would put them in a first place tie with the Wolf Pack. Though over time, Nevada will pull away, I do believe the Rebels will find themselves in a first place tie after tonight. They're favored and for good reason as they're at home and the superior defensive outfit. Both teams are off blowout wins - New Mexico 83-53 over Wyoming and UNLV 94-56 over San Jose State. But of the two teams, UNLV is the one more likely to turn in another strong defensive effort. They give up just 63.9 PPG at home. New Mexico, whose 30-point win over Wyoming was at home, gives up 79.6 PPG on the road. The Lobos have lost their last two road games, both by double digits. Play on UNLV. AAA |
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01-22-19 | Mississippi State +6.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 55-76 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MISS ST Kentucky has started to move up the rankings and comes into this game at #8 in the country. That seems a bit high to me and they're going to be tested tonight by another ranked squad, that being #22 Mississippi State. Normally, you'd expect a team to be "up" for a visit from a fellow ranked foe. But in the case of UK, Miss State comes smack dab in the middle of an Auburn-Kansas sandwich. The Wildcats outlasted Auburn 82-80 in a very hard fought game on Saturday and there's no doubt that the players will be looking forward to this weekend's showdown with the Jayhawks. So look for the road dog to come in and catch UK "napping." MSU is no slouch as they are off a week where they beat both Florida and Vanderbilt. There are two keys to this game for the Bulldogs. One is three-point shooting. They have made 156 three-point shots this year, which is second most among SEC schools. Kentucky is 13th in 3-pt FGM at 102. Also, MSU tends to dominate the boards, something they did exceptionally well at Vanderbilt where they didn't allow a single offensive rebound in the second half. Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE. AAA |
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01-21-19 | Warriors v. Lakers +11.5 | Top | 130-111 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the LAKERS. The Lakers would appear to be severely outmanned here and have little chance of keeping up with the Warriors. But that's what the pointspread is for and I think this is way too many points for Golden State to be laying on the road. Only two nights ago, the Lakers took another quality team (Houston) into overtime and even led that game by as much as 21 points. Letting such a lead slip away is pretty painful, but it shows this team is ready to compete, even without LeBron James. Before that overtime game vs. the Rockets, the Lakers managed to beat the Thunder, also an overtime game. Those last two games were both on the road. Lonzo Ball is also now out, joining James on the bench, but at least this game takes place in the Staples Center where the Lakers are 15-9 SU. Also, don't sell this team's defense short. They've held their last five opponents to a 40.7 field goal percentage. It will be tough holding Golden State to that number, but it's going to take some "getting used to" for the Warriors and DeMarcus Cousins, who will playing just his second game tonight. I say take the points. Play on LA LAKERS. AAA |
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01-21-19 | Iowa State v. Kansas -5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KANSAS. I like KANSAS to bounce back here from a weekend loss in Morgantown, West Virginia. That loss saw the Jayhawks go down on a last-second layup as they allowed the game's final seven points. The last time Kansas was off a loss (1.5 @ Iowa State), I grabbed them at home laying single digits and they took care of business against TCU, 77-68. Given KU is now facing the team that handed them that previous loss, I say they'll be especially motivated tonight at Allen Fieldhouse. It isn't often that Bill Self's team is this short of a favorite on its own floor. They are 10-0 in Lawrence this year. Since beating Kansas, Iowa State has lost twice - both time as a favorite. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the Cyclones and they did get back on track last week with two wins, one of them at Texas Tech. But all the signs point to a strong showing by Kansas, who is a) at home, b) off a loss and c) playing with revenge. Iowa State is just 1-6-1 ATS its last eight Monday games, so this is really an inopportune time for this game (from their perspective). Play on KANSAS AAA |
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01-21-19 | Heat v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON. With three straight wins, the Celtics seem to have turned a bit of a corner. While two of those wins were against Memphis and Atlanta, both struggling teams, the other was over Toronto. The last time Boston lost a home game was all the way back on December 21st against Milwaukee, who has the best record in the league. For Martin Luther King Day, they will welcome in a Miami squad that's at the end of a four-game trip. The Heat's only win on this trip came in Chicago and today marks their third game in the last four days. Boston is in the same situation, but is at home and a better team. It's no accident that the Celtics are winning so much at home. The simply play better here, averaging 114.4 points while giving up just 103.8 points. Miami is the definition of average and just faced two very bad offensive teams. They'll have problems here trying to stop Kyrie Irving, who has averaged 30.5 points over the last four games and 35.0 in the last two. This is a revenge game for the Celtics, who lost by 11 down in Miami on an off-shooting night for Kyrie. Different story this time. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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01-21-19 | Old Dominion v. Charlotte +7.5 | Top | 76-70 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE. Following in the path of George Mason and VCU, Old Dominion ditched the Colonial for a bigger conference, in this case Conference USA. But unlike those other teams (who both went to the Atlantic 10), the Monarchs have never gone to a Final Four, nor are they likely to anytime soon. While the Monarchs do boast a 10-1 SU record at home this year, they're just 4-4 otherwise and today they find themselves in a tricky spot traveling to Charlotte and having to lay points. Before crushing Southern Miss over the weekend, ODU had failed to cover five straight games. That streak included an outright loss at Florida Atlantic. Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last five games and just upset Louisiana Tech here over the weekend. The 49ers are accustomed to being underdogs and have been playing excellent defense recently. They held La Tech to 27.8% shooting, making it three of the last four opponents failing to shoot above 38%. ODU typically also plays good defense, but can be exploited from the three-point line where they are allowing 38.9% shooting away from home. Charlotte is 5-2 ATS its last seven home games. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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01-20-19 | South Dakota +5 v. Nebraska-Omaha | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on South Dakota I always give at least a cursory glance to the added board on a day such as this and today something really caught my eye. South Dakota probably deserves to have a better record than its current mark of 8-10 as all but three of those defeats have been by six points or less. I like them today in the underdog role visiting Omaha. The hosts got off to a very rough 3-7 start to this year, but have turned things around by going 7-1 in their last eight games. But don't go buying these Mavericks just yet as I don't believe they'll be able to maintain their recent scoring pace. South Dakota will slow this game down and play at their preferred tempo, which should keep things lower scoring and thus an ideal spot for an underdog. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH DAKOTA AAA |
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01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the PATRIOTS It's somewhat ironic that both underdogs this week (New England, Los Angeles) have not been an underdog in any other game this season. With the Patriots, they haven't been a dog since Week 1 of the 2016 season when they played at Arizona and Tom Brady was suspended. They still won that game, mind you. The last time Brady was an underdog was Week 14 of the 2014 season and the Patriots lost to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, 26-21. But that's the only time in the last five tries New England hasn't covered as an underdog. They haven't been an underdog in the playoffs since the 2014 AFC Championship at Denver. This week will be just the 7th time in 39 playoff games with Brady & Belichick that the Patriots are underdogs. They have a far better playoff resume that Andy Reid and Kansas City and I think that matters. The Patriots also already own a win over the Chiefs this year, 43-40 in Foxboro. While they did need a last second Stephen Gostkowski field goal to win, New England led for all but all seven minutes of actual game time. They also rolled up 500 yards on the Chiefs defense. Last week, you saw how dominant Brady can be when he's doubted. The Patriots scored 35 points in the first half. They'll be motivated again here. Play on NEW ENGLAND. AAA |
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01-20-19 | Rams +3.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on the RAMS. There's a lot of attention this week on the fact that the PATRIOTS are an underdog for the first time since the 1st week of the 2016 season. But the RAMS are the only other team besides the Patriots to have been favored in every game this year. That includes when they played here at the Superdome back in Week 9. Of course, they lost that game. It was their first loss all season (started 8-0) and while the final score ended up being 45-35 Saints, it was really never close as the Rams trailed virtually the whole game and were down 35-17 in the first half. Like New England, LA is now a dog for the 1st time all year when playing for its Conference Championship. I think the fact the line has moved so much for this rematch is significant when handicapping this game. The Rams actually closed at -2.5 for the regular season matchup. Are things really that different now? I understand that the Saints won easily the first time around and have never lost a home playoff game with Drew Brees as the starting QB. But, if anything is different this time around, it's that the Saints aren't looking as strong as they did just a few weeks ago. They trailed the Eagles last week, 14-0, before scoring 20 unanswered. But those 20 points did not come easy. Since they last faced the Rams, the vaunted New Orleans offense has been held to 20 points or less in four of seven games. I like the points here. Play on LA RAMS. AAA |
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01-20-19 | Florida State v. Boston College +6.5 | Top | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON COLLEGE Florida State has not been even a little bit reliable as a favorite in the 2018-19 season. They've gone 5-10 ATS in that role and just lost outright at Pittsburgh earlier in the week. That was certainly a tough spot to be laying points on the road as the 'Noles were just 48 hours removed from coming up two points shorts against Duke. But losing to Pitt by 13 was pretty bad. So was missing 20 of their 22 three-point attempts in the game. Here, FSU again is on the road. They'll be playing Boston College, whose dropped five in a row. But be aware that two of those five losses for the Eagles have come by three points or less. For B.C., this is a welcome return to Chesnut Hill as they've lost tough road games to Notre Dame and Louisville in the last week. Boston College does have four double digit scorers. They're also 5-1 ATS when taking points. They've covered in three of those five losses. This one could be an upset win. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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01-19-19 | Oregon v. Arizona State -3.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARIZONA STATE Not even a month ago, Arizona State was ranked 18th in the country. They welcome in Kansas (ranked #1 at the time) and upset the Jayhawks 80-76 as a three-point underdog. That the Sun Devils were only a three-point underdog to Kansas, even at home, shows they are a team to be respected. That win got ASU as high as #17 in the polls, but they've gone just 3-3 since and barely beat Oregon State Thursday night here at home. However, this sets up the Sun Devils as a strong value play on tonight's card. They'll be facing an Oregon team whose season has taken a more permanent turn for the worse with Bol Bol done for the year. The Ducks are also 3-3 in their last six games, but unlike Arizona State, I don't really see any kind of turnaround forthcoming. If you don't think Arizona State won't be motivated by the fact they've lost seven in a row to Oregon, think again. Despite the Oregon State game ending up as a close call, the Sun Devils did have an 18-point lead in the second half. Look for Bobby Hurley's team to win big Saturday night. Play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA |
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01-19-19 | Western Michigan +8.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 48-79 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WESTERN MICHIGAN With a snowstorm expected to hit the area, gametime has been moved up to 2:30 ET, rather than the originally scheduled 6:00 ET tip time. For Western Michigan, I guess that means they'll get to go home with at least an ATS win a little earlier than expected! Despite Bowling Green being undefeated in conference play and WMU being winless, these teams are a lot closer in true talent than their respective records show. Bowling Green has been the betting favorite in only one of its four MAC games thus far while Western Michigan just had to play the best team in the league, Buffalo. Before that, they faced a good Toledo team. Bowling Green will be a pretty clear drop in class from those two previous opponents and the Broncos did win outright in their lone road game in this price range (+6.5 to +9) when they went to Oakland and won 85-77. Despite their 6-11 SU record, WMU has only been outscored by about 1 point per game over the course of the season. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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01-19-19 | Suns v. Hornets -7 | Top | 115-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CHARLOTTE. The Suns and Hornets each last played on Thursday. The way those games went I believe will have a bearing on today's contest. Phoenix took a brutal loss up in Toronto, losing at the buzzer in a game effort. They were obviously big underdogs up in Canada, but fought hard throughout only to come up just short. This is a tough turnaround having to head down to Charlotte, who was quite successful on Thursday as they clobbered Sacramento 114-95. That was the Hornets second straight win as they'd previously upset San Antonio at the end of a six-game swing out West. At home, I think the Hornets have a pretty clear edge here. They recently (as in earlier this month) beat the Suns out in Phoenix, 119-113. The Suns shot 51.5% overall from the field in that game, including 10 of 25 (40%) from three-point range. They aren't likely to shoot that well again playing on the road. The Suns are an awful 4-18 away from home, getting outscored by almost 12 points per game. Charlotte is 15-8 at home and should win big Saturday. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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01-19-19 | Wright State v. Cleveland State +7.5 | Top | 89-66 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
Wright State has had a very unlucky year. Five losses by four points or less. They did win a close one Thursday though, beating Youngstown State 80-74. Saturday finds the Raiders trying to win back to back games for just the third time this season. The previous two instances all occurred at home. Here they would have to turn the trick all on the road. Cleveland State is having an even tougher season at 5-15 SU and they've opened Horizon League play by going 0-7. But giving the Vikings hope is that Wright State is playing its FIFTH straight road game. That's pretty rare. Cleveland State's leading scorer is Tyree Appleby. He is listed as questionable here, stemming from the illness that kept him out of the Northern Kentucky game. Not having him would not be ideal, but this just hasn't been Wright State's year. I look for the home underdog to surprise. Play on CLEVELAND STATE. |
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01-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +7 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on the CLIPPERS. This will be the Warriors third game in four nights. They have certainly scored plenty in the previous two. It was a 142-111 statement win in Denver Tuesday night. Wednesday saw them rally from behind for a 147-140 win over the Pelicans. Tonight they're in LA to face a desperate Clippers side that has lost four straight. Your first thought might be this is a terrible time to be facing the Warriors. After all, they'll be adding DeMarcus Cousins (making season debut) to an already historically great roster. But the Clips are no pushovers and getting this many points at home, they're a strong value play. Again, I'll point out that the Warriors did trail the Pelicans pretty significantly Wednesday. They were behind by 17 in the first half. Also, wouldn't it be fair to question if Cousins will disrupt their offensive rhythm? The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in Friday night games and they have already played the Warriors tough on two separate occasions. Once, at home, they beat them. The second time was a 2-point loss in Oakland. I'm taking the points in this ESPN matchup. Play on LA CLIPPERS. AAA |
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01-18-19 | Xavier v. Villanova -10 | Top | 75-85 | Push | 0 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Villanova. It shouldn't be any real surprise but Villanova is again ruling the Big East. They've started conference play with four straight wins and are on a five-game win streak overall. Some of the wins have been close. But the last one was most impressive. They went to Creighton and put up 90 in a 12-point win Sunday. That was a memorable performance for me as well considering I took the Wildcats. I will again Friday. They're playing Xavier tonight. The Musketeers have won two straight home games, beating Georgetown and Butler. But they are still playing without injured point guard Quentin Goodwin. His backup made a career high five three-pointers in the last game, which ended up being a one-point win over Butler. Xavier won't get that kind of production here. Villanova has won 26 of the last 31 meetings and four straight. Play on VILLANOVA. AAA |
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01-17-19 | Bulls v. Nuggets -12.5 | Top | 105-135 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER. Denver is coming off a humiliating loss Tuesday night to Golden State. They were beaten, at home, by a score of 142-111. Most notably they gave up a 51-point 1st quarter, which was a NBA record. Tonight they have an opportunity to take their frustration out on a lesser opponent. Let us not forget the kind of season the Nuggets are having. What happened Tuesday was just one game. This team is still 18-4 at home. They are still second in the Western Conference (and could even be tied for 1st depending what happens Wednesday night with Golden State vs. New Orleans). Bottom line is they are one of the best teams in the league. Tonight's opponent is one of the very worst in the league. Chicago has lost eight straight games. Four of the eight losses have been by 12 points or more. Even though they played the Nuggets tough very early in the year, the Bulls are just 2-7 ATS the last nine meetings. I expect the Nuggets to come out HIGHLY motivated in this one. Play on DENVER AAA |
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01-17-19 | Towson v. Drexel -5 | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DREXEL Towson and Drexel are both near the bottom of the Colonial. Of the two, Drexel has been slighty better. They have eight overall wins and two conference wins to Towson's five and one. So the Dragons definitely deserve to be favored at home, but in my opinion the oddsmakers should have them laying even more points. Towson has lost its last five games, all by eight points or more an is 0-5 ATS. Drexel can score. They average 81.4 points per game at home. Problem is they gave up 97 in their last game. That was on the road though. Towson won't be scoring anywhere close to that many points tonight. They've been held to 65 points or less four times during the five-game losing streak. They average only 66.6 points per game. Drexel has covered 4 of the 5 games it's been favored. Towson is 4-8 ATS as an underdog. Play on DREXEL. AAA |
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01-17-19 | Knicks +7.5 v. Wizards | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the KNICKS This game takes place in London, hence the afternoon start time. As if things couldn't already be bad enough for the Knicks (have lost 17 of its last 19 games), they'll be playing this game without Enes Kanter. Kanter, their leading rebounder and third leading scorer, has opted to stay back in America over growing safety concens due to his feud with the Turkish President. Meanwhile, a curious thing has taken place with the Wizards (18-26 SU). They've played a whole lot better since losing John Wall for the season! They are also playing without Dwight Howard. Despite missing the two former All-Stars, Washington owns recent wins over Oklahoma City, Philadelphia and Milwaukee. But the Bucks didn't have Giannis in that game. Also, the Wiz's last game was a double OT loss to Toronto. That's the last thing they needed before this trip. The bottom line is that in a neutral setting like this, there's too many unknowns to lay this many points with a below average team like Washington. They are 2-6 ATS after allowing 130 or more points their last game. Play on NEW YORK. AAA |
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01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the CLIPPERS. Games like this one are always going to be important considering the nature of the Western Conference where so many teams are bunched up. For the Clippers, who are on a three-game losing streak and desperate for a win, fortunately this game is taking place at the Staples Center. Though things have been a bit rough recently, at least they're still 6th in the Conference. They have a 14-8 SU record at home. Utah has heated up recently, but at the expense of some weak opponents, and they're still 9th in the West. The Jazz have a four-game win streak, but all four wins were at home and they came against Orlando, the Lakers (no LeBron), Chicago and Detroit. Hardly a "murderer's row" there. The Clippers are 17-7 ATS when favored. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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01-16-19 | UCF v. Wichita State +3.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Wichita State. A late tipoff at Koch Arena in Wichita tonight and I think that helps the home team a lot as UCF is already making a long trek here. The length of road trips is certainly something worth noting in the American Conference where the schools are pretty spread out across the Eastern half of the United States. Virtually every team in this league has an impressive home record, but no one is exactly tearing it up on the road. UCF is the only American team without a conference loss, but I look for that to change after tonight as Wichita State is not used to being below .500 (SU record is 7-8 right now), nor are they accustomed to four-game losing streaks like the one they are on now. True to the story I'm telling here, three of those four losses were out on the road. The only home loss was by four to Temple. This is the longest losing skid for the Wheat Shockers in several seasons and it's not often you find them as a home underdog. It hasn't happened this year, until now. They are 5-2 SU at home this year and +6.9 PPG. Play on WICHITA STATE AAA |
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01-16-19 | Iowa v. Penn State +1 | Top | 89-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Penn State. Penn State is 0-6 and in last place in the Big 10 standings (7-10 overall). But I think we are very likely to soon see the Nittany Lions play like they did during the non-conference portion of the schedule. The Big 10 is very tough this year with 9 or maybe even 10 teams possibly NCAA Tournament bound. It seems like the Nittany Lions have played darn near all the top teams in the league so far. They are coming off a brutal gauntlet of Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan State, who collectively might be the Big 10's four best teams. They've also faced Maryland and Indiana. Iowa should be considered a Big Dance team right now and they are coming off a few big wins of their own, the most recent being one that I was on as they beat Ohio State by 10. But this game is in Happy Valley and Iowa is probably the weakest Big 10 team PSU has faced yet. Big edge on defense for the Nittany Lions in this matchup as they are 20th in defensive efficiency while Iowa ranks 82nd. Play on PENN STATE. AAA |
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01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | Top | 142-111 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Denver. I probably don't have to tell you what a big game this is. The big thing for Denver is getting it at home where they have an 18-3 record and have won 12 in a row. They've already beaten Golden State once this year here. Sure, it was by just two points, but that'll work again here. The Warriors are a surprising 10-10 straight up against teams with winning records and only 7-13 against the spread in those games. Denver has a half-game lead on them right now for 1st in the Western Conference. A key edge in this game lies on the defensive end. Golden State gives up 112.1 points per game on the road. Denver allows only 102.1 at home. Play on DENVER AAA |
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01-15-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -6 | Top | 49-51 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Akron. Akron could really use a win here as they went 0-2 on the road last week. One of those losses was by only two points (to Central Michigan) in overtime. Coming off that painful loss, the Zips were then surprisingly blown out, 73-56, at Northern Illinois. But it's not like they started poorly; they actually led 34-25 at halftime before NIU got ridiculously hot in the second half, shooting almost 75% from the field. Fortunately, Akron is back home tonight where they've gone 7-1 on the year. They'll host Eastern Michigan, who has been a real Jekyll and Hyde outfit this season. They just turned in a couple Jekyll-type performances last week in beating Ball State (in overtime) and Kent State. But I look for a "Hyde-like" showing tonight considering the Eagles' woeful numbers on the road. They are just 1-5 SU outside of Ypsilanti and getting outscored by almost 20 PPG. Akron plays outstanding defense at home (55.9 PPG allowed!) and has double revenge from two losses suffered at the hands of EMU last season. Play on AKRON. AAA |
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01-14-19 | Pelicans v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 121-117 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* PLAY ON THE CLIPPERS Unless it happens to involve Phoenix, virtually every Western Conference game this year carries some meaning. Right now, you have 10 teams bunched up, just five games within one another. The difference between those 10 teams is 5th place and second from the bottom (14th). The Clippers and Pelicans happen to be two of the teams in this jumbled mess. Los Angeles is out in front, tied for 5th in the conference, while New Orleans is towards the bottom of the back and 4.5 games behind LA. The Clippers have the homecourt advantage tonight and that's huge considering the Pelicans terrible 5-17 road record. NO just lost up in Minnesota Saturday and the Clippers team that takes the court tonight will not be in a giving mood after losing themselves (as 7.5 point favorites) to Detroit, right here at home that same night. The Clippers, who are 17-7 ATS when favored, have come back to win three of the four times after they've previously suffered an outright loss as a favorite. The Pelicans may have Anthony Davis, but the Clippers have the deeper roster, which is evident by the fact they're currently on pace to have the highest scoring bench in three decades. New Orleans is one of the worst defensive teams in the league and gives up almost 115 PPG. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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01-14-19 | Syracuse v. Duke -17 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on DUKE. This is a matchup that always attracts a lot of attention nationally as you have two famous coaches who have guided their respective programs to National Championships. But, let's face it. Duke has a sizable edge coming into this meeting and that's true whether or not Zion Williamson is able to play Monday. The Blue Devils are #1 in the country and will stay that way thanks to a last second three-pointer that beat Florida State, 80-78, on Saturday. Williamson was poked in the eye and missed the entire second half. Coach K has gone on record as saying "he (Zion) is better now." Either way, a big edge to the Blue Devils, who are so far and away the best team in the country this year and playing at home. Syracuse is off a 73-59 loss to Georgia Tech, a game they were favored to win by 8.5-points. That game was at home too. Their 2-3 zone got torched for nearly 60% shooting by the Yellow Jackets. Duke has the depth and talent necessary to overcome a possible Williamson absence and the fact is they're outscoring opponents by almost 35 points per game here in Durham. Syracuse hasn't played many road games and this one won't be very fun. Play on DUKE AAA |
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01-13-19 | Cavs +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the CAVS The Cavs are very bad, but they will be highly motivated tonight to beat the Lakers even though the greatest and most famous player in Cleveland history (LeBron James) will not be playing. Any motivation lost from not facing James is made up by the fact that the Lakers are infinitely more beatable without him. Friday's loss in Utah was very ugly (shot 36%) and dropped LA to 3-6 since James got injured. So laying this many points with the Lakers right now seems most unwise. Yes, Cleveland has lost 12 in a row and just allowed 141 points in their last game (to Houston). But even when the Lakers had James, the Cavs took them down to the wire back in November, losing by only four points. After a string of horrible defensive performances, you have to think Cleveland is going to eventually "show up" for one of these games. I feel tonight is the night as the Lakers were rarely favored by this many even with James in the lineup. Play on Cleveland AAA |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -8 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Saints. So I expected this line to come down a bit as the Eagles' playoff record with Nick Foles as the quarterback is well known. But it really hasn't and upon second thought, I have no hesitation in laying the points with the Saints at home. Foles' reputation may work against his team, which lost 48-7 on this field in the regular season. It's a different Eagles team now, but are they really four touchdowns better now than they were in November. I think not. New Orleans, off a bye, should be as strong as ever with Drew Brees leading the way. For a second year in a row, the Saints offense was top five in both rushing and passing. In the last five home games that Brees has played (remember, he sat the regular season finale), the Saints have averaged 40 PPG! The Saints aren't just all offense anymore though; they boasted the top run defense in the league this year, allowing only 80 YPG. The Saints have won their last five playoff home games, so homefield advantage is a very real thing in this Divisional Round matchup. As they showed in the regular season, the Saints are simply a much better team than the Eagles this year. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots -3.5 | Top | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 142 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Patriots The Chargers beat the Ravens in the Wild Card Round, but the win would certainly qualify as "ugly" with Baltimore's offense not doing much for the first three quarters save for gifting LA numerous opportunities to take advantage of. The Chargers scored just one offensive TD the entire game and got three fields on drives that went less than 20 yards, thanks to either Ravens turnovers or a key special teams plays. Tom Brady and the Patriots will not provide such opportunities. Off a bye and at home, this is an ideal price range to grab New England. Keep in mind that they are 24-4 SU the last 28 home games, also going 20-8 ATS. During that time, they are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This season saw them win all four games in that range. This is just the fifth time with Belichick & Brady that New England is laying less than six points in Foxboro. They are 3-1 SU and ATS the previous four. They are the only team that won all eight home games in the regular season. For what it's worth, the Patriots are also 4-0 SU and ATS the last four meetings with the Chargers. This is Los Angeles' second straight week playing an early start in the Eastern Time Zone. That does them no favors against a superior side. Play on NEW ENGLAND. AAA |
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01-13-19 | Villanova -1 v. Creighton | Top | 90-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Villanova Villanova has finally started to turn things around. The defending National Champs started slow this year with some shocking losses. Shocking in the sense that they were either to inferior foes (like Furman and Penn) or in blowout fashion (lost by 27 to Michigan). But since dropping two straight three-point decisions last month, the Wildcats have posted four straight wins coming into Sunday. They failed to cover at home vs. St. John's in their last game, but that was a nice win nevertheless. Today they're up against a Creighton team that has lost its last two games, including a heartbreaker vs. Marquette on Wednesday. They lost 106-104 in overtime after Marquette was able to tie the game with a late three in regulation. That's going to be a very difficult loss for the Bluejays to overcome. Nova is the only team in the Big East without a conference loss as their annual domination of this league could be forthcoming. I love them as basically a pick em here as Creighton really struggles defensively. The Wildcats have covered six of their last eight road games. Play on VILLANOVA AAA |
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01-12-19 | Penguins v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 6* bet on the KINGS on the PUCK LINE. I'm looking at the Kings on the puck line here as getting an extra 1.5 goals at home is certainly some nice insurance. Facing the Penguins, those extra 1.5 goals may come in handy. The Penguins have lost only once in the last 11 games, but it was to a bad Chicago team and at home no less. The Pens have been scoring a lot lately; they just beat Anaheim 7-4 last night. But how about the energy they expended having to overcome an early three-goal deficit? Scoring seven goals in two periods is impressive, but now having to come back and play the next night is tough. When these teams met in Pittsburgh last month, the Kings only lost by one goal and outshot Pittsburgh 41-36. LA is off a bad loss Thursday here at home vs. Ottawa where they closed north of -200 on the money line. Granted, the change in opponent is as drastic as it gets, but going from that price range to this is pretty dramatic too. Play LOS ANGELES on the PUCK LINE. AAA |
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01-12-19 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco +9 | Top | 96-83 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on San Francisco Not since the days of Wilt Chamberlain has their been a bigger basketball game on the campus of the University of San Francisco. You may think I'm falling prey to hyperbole with that statement, but it's true. Sure, this isn't the first time, nor the last, that a highly ranked Gonzaga team is coming here to play. But it's definitely the first time in a LONG time where the Dons come in thinking they can win. They are 14-2 this year, an excellent defensive team, and have been off for a full week to prepare for this game. When I took the Dons back on January 3rd against St. Mary's, I called that their biggest home game in some time. They won, 76-72, and covered as a small home favorite. This game is obviously even bigger and this time the Dons are getting points and plenty of them. Gonzaga has annihilated its last six opponents, but all those games were at home. This is their first time playing away from Spokane since losing to North Carolina on December 15th. USF is an experienced group whose two losses this year have been by a total of six points. They are 10-0 at home, allowing less than 60 points per game. I love them plus the points tonight. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys v. Rams -7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA RAMS. Despite having Todd Gurley, don't expect the Rams to do what the Seahawks attempted (and failed) to do last week against the Cowboys. That would be run, run and run some more. Seattle OC Brian Schottenhiemer essentially taking the game out of Russell Wilson's hands was foolish to say the least and isn't something we're likely to see here from Rams coach Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. As they're coming off a bye, I like the Rams at home quite a bit this week. It's been almost 25 years since the Cowboys won multiple playoff games in the same year. They have not won a playoff road game since 1993. Los Angeles will be extra motivated after losing last year's playoff game at home (to the Falcons). As we saw last week, the Dallas defense is good against the run, but they can be beat through the air. Wilson averaged 8.6 yards per attempt against them. No NFC team averaged more yards per play than the Rams did in the regular season. After the back door cover that affected most last week (not me as I bet Dallas -1), the Cowboys are 6-13 ATS against teams with winning records. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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01-12-19 | Ohio State v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Iowa Ohio State is looking to rebound from an upset loss at the hands of Rutgers Wednesday night, a game they were favored to win by 5.5 points. They lost 64-61, which could drop them out of the top 25. Things get no easier tonight for the #16 team in the country as they have to visit Iowa, who is one of the nine Big 10 teams currently slotted for the NCAA Tournament. The Hawkeyes have pulled off consecutive minor upsets, first over Nebraska, then at Northwestern, the latter coming without leading scorer Tyler Cook. With this game being at home, they are favored here. Ohio State was 12-1, but has now dropped consecutive games for the first time. They lost at home to Michigan State last weekend, which was okay, but losing at Rutgers is not. Iowa should get Cook back here, which is a big deal seeing as he's also 5th in the Big 10 in rebounding. The Buckeyes are going to have trouble stopping a Hawkeyes team averaging 86.1 points/game in Iowa City, which is a major reason why they're 9-1 SU here this season. Play on IOWA AAA |
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01-12-19 | Providence v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 90-96 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Georgetown We look to the Big East for this early Saturday tip with Georgetown (11-5) hosting Providence (10-5). The host Hoyas haven't been very effective this season - or the last few for that matter - but the good news is the number is inconsequential today. The Hoyas are coming off two close losses, by three to St. John's and six to Xavier. It's a similar story for Providence as they've lost by 11 to Creighton and six to Villanova. But the difference is both Friars losses came at home. They (Providence) are also still without guard A.J. Reeves (a 14.2 PPG scorer). After losing both meetings last year (by a total of nine points), Georgetown is going to come in highly motivated Saturday. G'town is the superior offensive side in this one, averaging 82.7 PPG overall and 87.8 PPG at home. Play on GEORGETOWN AAA |
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01-11-19 | Bulls v. Warriors -15 | Top | 109-146 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GOLDEN STATE Again, a game where the favorite should roll to victory. I had the Warriors Tuesday night when they hosted the Knicks. I spelled it out that NY was in the wrong place at the wrong time and sure enough it was all Golden State in a 122-95 blowout. Tonight they face a comparable team to the Knicks in the Bulls. The Warriors have been off for two days while Chicago is playing its second road game in three nights. They gave up 124 points Wednesday in Portland, so you can just imagine how many Golden State should score tonight. Over the last five games, they have averaged 126 points/game. Chicago simply isn't capable of scoring anywhere close to that number and after scoring 112 in Portland, they're probably due for a downturn anyway. The Bulls have the worst offensive efficency in the league currently. This spread is at least several points too low as the Warriors already won by 25 in Chicago earlier in the year, scoring 149 (!) points in the process. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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01-11-19 | Nets +10 v. Raptors | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -113 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BROOKLYN. Here's a game where I like the underdog. The Nets have risen to 6th in the Eastern Conference (entering Thursday), if you can believe that. They have won four out of their last five, two of them on the road and two as underdogs. Now winning in Toronto will not be easy. The Raptors have reclaimed the top spot in the East via a three-game win streak, which includes impressive triumphs over Milwaukee and Indiana. The last game was a bit of a sleepwalking-type effort though as they only beat Atlanta by three, right here at home. The following night the Nets took advantage of the Hawks being unrested and beat them by 16. While Kyle Lowry is back for the Raptors now, Jonas Valanciunas remains out for several more weeks. Brooklyn beat Toronto last month, albeit at home, doing so as an 8.5-point dog. They're actually playing much better now with a 13-4 SU record the last 17 games, topping Toronto's own 10-7 over the same stretch. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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01-11-19 | Hawks v. 76ers -12.5 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA The 76ers should have an even easier time than expected with the Hawks tonight. Atlanta has lost two straight on the road and four out of its last five overall. They are just 12-29 SU and one of the clear bottom five teams in the league. Philadelphia has just been unbelievable when it comes to covering games at home the last three seasons, going 67-39 ATS. They need not worry about this high pointspread considering they've already beaten Atlanta by 21 on this floor, earlier this season. For further proof of how much better the Sixers are at home, look at what they just did vs. Washington, splitting a home and home. The performance on the road was terrible, but at home they put up 132 points. The Sixers are now 18-3 SU at home this year and averaging 117.3 PPG. They are 7-1 ATS following a double digit loss (lost 123-106 in Washington Wednesday) as well. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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01-11-19 | Indiana v. Maryland -4.5 | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Maryland The Big 10 is incredibly deep this season with as many as nine teams possibly NCAA Tournament bound. The two here both feel like they're going to finish near the top. Both Indiana and Maryland have a loss in conference play, but while the former can claim to be ranked, the latter has the advantages of getting this one at home and at a time when IU is a bit short-handed. The Hoosiers have almost no depth right now with four reserves injured. In Sunday's loss at Michigan, all 63 points came from the starting five. There's no shame losing in Ann Arbor, especially when you'd won seven in a row before that. But playing on the road for a second straight game might be. Maryland is 6-1 in its last 7 games, winning four in a row. They beat a good Nebraska team the last time they played at home and are off a minor upset of Minnesota on the road. Pay no mind to the fact Indiana is ranked and Maryland isn't. It's a fairly useless distinction and the homecourt provided a substantial edge. The Terps are already 4-0 ATS in Big 10 play. Play on Maryland AAA |
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01-10-19 | Pacific +25 v. Gonzaga | Top | 36-67 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
THis is a 10* play on Pacific As per usual, when Gonzaga faces a "lesser" team from the West Coast Conference, the spread is going to be quite high. But this one against Pacific Thursday night is simply too high. It's not hard to understand what the oddsmakers are thinking here. The Zags are coming off a 91-48 massacre of Santa Clara on Saturday. That marked the #5 team in the country's fifth straight cover, all of which have come as a favorite of 26.5 points or more! So this line is actually right in line with recent results, but don't think for a second that Gonzaga doesn't have an eye on this weekend's showdown in San Francisco where they'll be taking on the WCC's 2nd best team. Pacific obviously isn't going to win this game, but the back door will always be open. Play on PACIFIC AAA |
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01-10-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Denver. I'd say it's fair to say this is a pretty important game in the Western Conference. Denver is one game up on Golden State for the top spot while the Clippers aren't too far behind, in fourth position, just 3.5 back of the Nuggets. But Denver has always enjoyed one of the league's strongest home court advantages and I'm a little surprised they're not favored by more here. They're 16-3 SU at the Pepsi Center so far this year and are outscoring teams here by a double digit margin. In their last game, the Nuggets won at Miami, 103-99 as a two-point dogs. That's a good sign for tonight as they're a perfect 5-0 against the spread when coming off an outright win as an underdog. The Clippers come in riding a three-game win streak, but those wins were against Phoenix, Orlando and Charlotte, all sub-.500 teams. LA had better than usual defensive performances in those three wins, but I wouldn't expect such an effort to take place here considering they still allow more than 115 PPG on the road. This is a revenge game for the Nuggets as they lost to the Clippers by 21 at the Staples Center right before Christmas. Revenge will be sweet tonight. Play on DENVER AAA |
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01-10-19 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play, taking Carolina on the PUCK LINE (+1.5) There's no denying how well Tampa Bay has played this season and they come into this game on an 8-1 run, fresh off blanking Columbus 4-0 the other night. But such a surge has opened up the puck line (+1.5) as a possibility for their opponents tonight, another red hot team, that being Carolina. The Hurricanes have won five in a row and just snapped the Islanders six-game win streak on Tuesday. The 'Canes, despite their mediocre record, have played better than you think this season. They do lead the league in shots per game at 36.3. Now if only they could convert those into more goals. They have recently, scoring 21 goals during the 5-game win streak and I think they'll have plenty more chances to score tonight against a Lightning team that only ranks 14th in number of goals allowed per game. Carolina is better than you think and given how they've looked recently, them getting an extra 1.5 goals is a tremendous value. They are also 12-2 coming off a division game this year. Take Carolina on the PUCK LINE (+1.5) AAA |
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01-09-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-113 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
THis is an 8* play on the PISTONS. Under normal circumstances, the Pistons would not be a great bet in this price range, on the road, against the Lakers. But this is not a normal circumstance. The Lakers are playing without LeBron James and as we've seen that hasn't gone too well for them. Since James injured his groin Christmas Night against Golden State, LA is just 2-5 straight up. One of the two wins did come Monday, as 7.5-point dogs, in Dallas. But before that, they'd lost at home to the Knicks and gotten blown out in Minnesota. Now you need not tell me that Detroit has been floundering itself recently, but they'll come out highly motivated here to win a national TV game against a wounded foe. The Lakers are a poor 11-16 ATS when favored and 3-9 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference and remember most of those games were played with LeBron in the lineup. The Pistons aren't a great shooting team, but neither are the Lakers since LeBron went down. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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01-09-19 | TCU v. Kansas -6 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Kansas. I actually had to do a double take when I first saw this line. This is way too small of a number for Kansas to be laying at home, especially coming off a loss. Perhaps the oddsmakers have forgotten just how good the Jayhawks really are? More likely, it has to do with the loss of Udoka Azubuike (hand injury) for the rest of the season. But still, Azubuike is just one player. Sure, he is one of the better players on the team, but he wasn't the leader in either points or rebounds (that's Dedrick Lawson). Yes, KU's first game without Azubuike did not go well at all as they were blown out by 17 at Iowa State. But that was a road game and Iowa State is really good. Better than tonight's opponent, TCU, that's for sure. Plus the Horned Frogs have to come to Lawrence where the Jayhawks have lost only four times in the last 40 tries. It's a bad time for TCU to visit as well. Over the last three seasons, Kansas is 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS when off a conference loss. They have plenty of experience playing without Azubuike last year and should get the job done tonight. TCU has won nine straight, but this is their most difficult game all season. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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01-09-19 | Marquette v. Creighton -3.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Creighton Marquette (12-3) is ranked 21st in the country coming into this game and has some really nice wins this year. They're the only team to beat Buffalo (did so 103-85) and have also beaten the likes of Kansas State, Louisville and Wisconsin. Sunday saw the Golden Eagles blow out Xavier 70-52. But the common theme of most of their big wins this year is that they came at home. They have played only two true road games and both times they were blown out. It was a 23-point loss to Indiana and a 20-point loss to St. John's. The team they face tonight is Creighton and the Blue Jays should be happy to be back home after opening Big East play with a pair of road games. They split the pair, winning at Providence, but losing at Butler. This is a situation where the home team has major revenge as Creighton is 0-4 straight up and against the spread vs. Marquette the previous two seasons. But both games last year were decided by just four points. Creighton is a strong offensive team, averaging 83.7 points per game, and they shoot the ball exceptionally well (51.6%). All offensive numbers are even better at home as well. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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01-08-19 | Knicks v. Warriors -18 | Top | 95-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Golden State It's time for the Warriors to wake up and start playing like the Warriors. Tonight's home game against the 10-30 Knicks offers the perfect opportunity for that to happen. The Knicks had to play last night in Portland where they predictably lost by double digits. They're in no shape to compete here. It its true that they have covered three straight games, all on the road, including a win over the Lakers. But this is a team that has lost 14 of its last 16 games. The Lakers did not have LeBron James when the Knicks played them. Before that, the Knicks last SU win in regulation came all the way back on the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Obviously, judging from the line here, the SU result is not what we're worried about. Golden State has been a home favorite of more than 12.5 points three times this season. They have covered all three times. After some shaky performances last week, they're rested and ready to blow somebody out. The Knicks happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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01-08-19 | St. John's v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Villanova. St. John's is 14-1 and now ranked in the latest poll (#24 AP/#23 Coaches), but I happen to view the Red Storm as one of the more overrated teams in the country right now. You'll note that despite their record and ranking, they come is as more than just a slight underdog tonight against Villanova, despite the defending National Champions having had their struggles the first two months of the season. Nova is not ranked, but they're on the cusp and clearly a better team that St. John's. The Wildcats went 2-0 last week, winning a couple close ones over DePaul and Providence. Neither win was pretty, but they still won and that's what counts. While 'Nova is viewed as an underachiever, you'll want to note that two of their losses were by just three points on the road. St. John's is off an overtime win at Georgetown over the weekend, so I wonder how much they'll have left in the tank here. The Johnnies have not faced the stiffest competition to this points (only been a dog once) and I think it's fair to say Villanova is their toughest opponent yet. Play on VILLANOVA. AAA |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 125 h 4 m | Show |
These are easily the two best teams in the country and I think the gap between the two isn't nearly as large as the oddsmakers seem to, if it even exists at all. 14-0 Clemson has been unstoppable since Trevor Lawrence took over as the quarterback. They have all nine games by at least three touchdowns, including a 30-3 beatdown of Notre Dame in the semifinal. Sound familiar? Alabama (14-0) hasn't lost a game since making its own famous QB change, to Tua Tagovailoa, in last year's National Championship Game. That was of course the game AFTER the Crimson Tide last faced Clemson, a 24-6 win. Expect this one to be along the lines of the two Championship Games these teams played in 2016 and 2017. This Clemson team is a lot better than last year, not only because of Lawrence, but the defense as well. The Tigers are only giving up 12.9 points per game, the fewest in the nation. They also allow just 274.7 yards per game. That's 93 on the ground and only 182 through the air. Not saying they'll hold Bama to those totals, but Clemson's defense isn't about to let this turn into a blowout. This game should be much closer to a pick 'em. Play on CLEMSON |
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01-07-19 | Spurs v. Pistons +4 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT The Pistons won for me as underdogs last week, beating Memphis as a 6.5-point road dog. They've since lost, here at home, 110-105 to Utah. The task gets no tougher tonight with San Antonio paying a visit. The Spurs have not only won 12 of their last 15 games, they've gone 13-2 against the spread. They are now sixth in the Western Conference, but playing as well as anyone. Look for this to be a letdown spot, however. This game falls smack dab in the middle of a home and home against the Grizzlies. The Spurs won by 20 the other night over Memphis, at home, but they're still only 6-12 SU on the road this season. A major change for them on the road is that they allow 114.7 points per game. At home, they allow 103.6 points per game. Detroit (17-20 SU) should come out highly motivated tonight seeing as they blew an 18-point first quarter lead to the Jazz on Saturday. The Pistons have gone 6-3 ATS against Western Conference teams this year. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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01-07-19 | Niagara v. Fairfield -3.5 | Top | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Fairfield In deference to the College Football National Championship Game, it's a limited College Basketball card on Monday. But there's value to be had here on Fairfield, who hosts Niagara in a MAAC matchup. The Stags (3-11) haven't had a lot go right for them this year, but should have a far better win-loss record. I'm saying that because they've suffered an interminable number of close losses. Eight of the 11 losses have been by seven points or less with six coming by three points or fewer. Not sure if I've ever seen a team play so many close games over the first two months of a season. Bottom line is that Fairfield is due to prevail and they're favored for a reason tonight. Niagara (7-7) has lost its last two games, both as favorites, to Albany and Manhattan. The Purple Eagles will be playing on the road for a second time in three days, right after allowing Manhattan to shoot 63% for the game on Saturday. Fairfield has yet to win at home this season (0-4), so you know they're coming out highly motivated. Play on FAIRFIELD AAA |
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01-06-19 | Nebraska v. Iowa +2.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Iowa Considering how competitive the Big 10 is this year (7 teams currently ranked), neither 11-3 Nebraska nor 11-3 Iowa can really afford what would be a second straight defeat in conference play. But, by rule, somebody has to fall and I think it's going to be the visiting Cornhuskers, who just lost a tough one, by two at Maryland Wednesday night. Iowa had a far tougher time in its last game, losing by 16, but they were also at Purdue. The Hawkeyes are still 8-1 here in Iowa City while all three Nebraska losses this season have taken place outside of Lincoln. The Cornhuskers are 0-2 SU on the Big 10 road so far with another loss occurring at Minnesota last month. Iowa likely remembers losing by double digits last year in Lincoln, so this is a revenge game for them. They're also off to an 0-3 start in Big 10 play, but considering they had to play Purdue, Michigan State and Wisconsin (two of them on the road), the record really isn't that shocking. But the record also puts them in full on "desperation mode" Sunday. All things considered, not sure Nebraska should be favored on the road in this spot. Play on IOWA. AAA |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -5.5 | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 43 m | Show |
My *10* NFL Playoff Game of the YEAR is on the BEARS. Don't be fooled into thinking that the 12-4 Bears drew some sort of "unfavorable" matchup here with the 9-7 Eagles. Sure, it would have been nice to play the Vikings against based on how easily the Monsters of the Midway dispatched of them (in Minnesota) in Week 17. But the amount of respect Philadelphia is getting here is based on LAST season, not this one when they were a very mediocre team. Yes, Nick Foles is back at QB and he led Philly to a Super Bowl last year. But, statistically, this year's Eagles are not close to last year's. They're also having to go on the road here. (Last year, they only need to win two home games to get to the SB. This year, they'd have to win three on the road). The Eagles were outgained both on a per game and per play basis in the regular season. Chicago comes in with perhaps the best defense in the league. They are allowing just 17.7 points per game and should give Foles and what remains a limited offense plenty of trouble. As for the Bears offense, coach Matt Nagy has done a great job at managing QB Mitchell Trubisky and he'll have plenty of chances to make plays against an Eagles defense that is still beat up on the back end. Chicago has been the far better team this year and has covered 9 of its last 10 games. The only non-cover was a FG loss in overtime. They are 16-4-1 ATS their previous 21 home games. The BEARS are my *10* Playoff Game of the Year. AAA |
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01-06-19 | Nets v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 117-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
This is a *10* play on the BULLS The 19-21 Nets have played surprisingly well of late and have even risen to the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference. Since December 7th, their record is 11-3 straight up and 10-4 against the spread. This despite still being without top scorer Caris LeVert. I do expect this team to start cooling down though. Despite all the success, which includes a road win over Memphis Friday night, Brooklyn still isn't a very good road team. They're below .500 on the road for the season, so coming in as a favorite seems shaky, even though they're 2-0 ATS YTD in the role of road chalk. One of those wins/covers came here on Chicago on 12/19, but the win was by only three points and the Bulls have started to play better since then for interim coach Jim Boylan, at least on the defensive end. Chicago also recently got back two starters, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen, back from injuries. They'll be out for revenge here and should get it. The Bulls are looking to avoid a winless three-game homestand here and have lost three in a row overall. But they are 8-3 ATS this season off 3+ SU losses and just took a very good Indiana team to overtime Friday. LeVert isn't the only player missing for the Nets; they're also without Allen Crabbe and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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01-06-19 | Xavier +9 v. Marquette | Top | 52-70 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Xavier. While yesterday's early "ASSASSIN" was on a favorite from the Big East (Butler over Creighton), today we're going to be looking at an underdog as 9-6 Xavier travels to 11-3 Marquette. The host Golden Eagles come in ranked #16 in the country and have some nice wins this year. They've beaten the likes of Louisville, Kansas State and Wisconsin, plus they ended the unbeaten run of Buffalo to start the year in emphatic fashion (won that game 103-85). But playing just their 2nd true road game this season, they failed again mightily on New Year's Day, losing by 20 at St. John's. Their only other true road game was a 23 point loss at Indiana. They're back at home tonight, but Xavier won't be lacking for any motivation here as they just lost outright as a favorite to Seton Hall on Wednesday. The Musketeers are 1-3 ATS the L4 games, failing to cover all three times they were favored. But they won outright the one time they were a dog, at DePaul. Xavier won both meetings with Marquette last season. Expect a close battle today in the Big East. Play on XAVIER. AAA |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DALLAS The nightcap Saturday sees the 10-6 Cowboys hosting the 10-6 Seahawks. Dallas got the homefield advantage by winning the NFC East while Seattle had to settle for second in the NFC West. But the Seahawks did beat the Cowboys in the regular season, 24-13, all the way back in Week 3. But that game was in Seattle. Dallas played pretty poorly, turning it over three times and as a result trailed by double digits most of the way. But their defense did a good job, holding Russell Wilson and company to less than 300 total yards and just 113 rushing. The key to the Seattle offense is running the football as they led the league in that department. But the Cowboys defense was one of the best at stopping the run. They allow only 94.6 rush yards per game, which ranked 5th in the league. Really, the Dallas defense deserves more accolades as it was pretty great this year. A big reason America's Team was 7-1 in "Jerry World" this year was that the defense gave up only 18.5 PPG. Seattle's defense allowed at least 24 points in six of the last eight games. The Seahawks are only 1-5 ATS their last six playoff games. In both games Saturday, the better defensive team is playing at home. I expect both to win. Play on the COWBOYS. AAA |
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01-05-19 | San Francisco v. Pepperdine +7.5 | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PEPPERDINE Normally, when a team just pulled an upset (like Pepperdine did Thursday), they are the ones prone for a letdown in their next game. But I don't think that will be the case here. Because their opponent (San Francisco) is off a win that was perhaps the program's biggest in some time. The Dons downed St. Mary's Thursday for the right to be called the WCC's 2nd best team (behind Gonzaga obviously), at least temporarily. While they did lead that game most of the time, it took a couple of key defensive stops in the final minute to preserve what ended up being just a four-point win at home. Pepperdine had no problems handling Loyola Marymount (probably the 4th best WCC team) two nights ago in this gym, winning 77-62 as a slight home dog. As I wrote two days ago, the Waves are a significantly better team at home. They average 86.1 points here. No wonder why they are 4-0 ATS in home games this season. Averaging as many points as they do, Pepperdine is once again a live dog Saturday night. Play on PEPPERDINE. AAA |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -125 | 74 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the TEXANS It's two AFC South teams matching up in our first Wild Card Game of the weekend. The 11-5 Texans host the 10-6 Colts. Saturday marks the third time they will have met this season and the road team has had the edge so far, winning and covering both games. But I think I would be foolish to think there's any kind of "edge" being the road team in the NFL playoffs. Indianapolis was only 4-4 on the road in the regular season as opposed to 6-2 at home. On offense, they are likely going to be reduced to a one-dimension attack here. They could not run on this Houston defense in either regular season meeting, totaling just 91 yards. That's going to put a lot of pressure on Andrew Luck. The Texans allow only 17 points per game at home. The Colts scored 24 in their visit, but that was actually the second most points by any visitor this year at NRG Stadium. I do not see them scoring that many this time. Something I find interesting is that Houston was actually a 1-pt favorite for the game in Indianapolis, then a 4-pt favorite for the last game here. Good value this third time around. The Colts are just 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff road games. I look for Houston QB Watson to make more plays than Luck on Saturday, getting his team the win. Play on the TEXANS AAA |
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01-05-19 | Creighton v. Butler -3 | Top | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BUTLER. I'm gonna side with Butler in this early Saturday tip as the situation sets up quite well for them. The Bulldogs (9-5) lost their Big East opener, right here at home, earlier this week. It was to Georgetown, 84-76, and considering Butler was a 9.5-point choice at the betting window, it's fair to call that a "bad" loss. They get a second chance at home today though against a Creighton team playing its second straight game on the road. The Bluejays were victorious in their first conference game, 79-68 at Providence, as 2.5-point dogs. But I can't see them opening Big East play with two straight road wins, not with the way they play defense (or rather DON'T play defense). Creighton has played six games this year off-campus. They've allowed an average of 79.5 points per game in them. Last year, they surrendered 93 points in this building and lost by 23. Sure they come into Saturday riding a three-game win streak, but two of those were against cupcakes. Butler had not lost a home game before running into Georgetown on Wednesday. Will they shoot only 41% at home again here? Probably not. Creighton is only 7-18 ATS the last 25 times it has been listed as the underdog. Play on BUTLER. AAA |
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01-04-19 | Buffalo v. Eastern Michigan +11 | Top | 74-58 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
This is a *10* play on Eastern Michigan Buffalo has been a really nice story so far, starting the year 12-1. Their only loss came on the road to a very good Marquette team and that result came on the heels of the Bulls winning at Syracuse. Well, they're still on the road here for the Mid-American Conference opener. This will be UB's 4th straight road game, a tough ask for any team, but particularly when it's around the New Year. The Bulls only played two home games in December, the last one coming on the 15th. They did just win at Canisius Saturday, barely covering the spread as well. But I think they're going to find things a lot tougher here tonight in Ypsilanti where Eastern Michigan will be ready for its biggest home game of the conference schedule. The Eagles just played Kansas last weekend, so they won't be intimidated by the Bulls. I realize that EMU has failed to cover in all six of its chances as an underdog, but this is the most points they've gotten at home where they're 6-2 straight up. This is a team that played not only Kansas, but Duke as well. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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01-04-19 | Pacers v. Bulls +6 | Top | 119-116 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Bulls The 10-28 Bulls are having a tough season, but I like them plus the points tonight at home vs. Indiana. The Pacers (25-12) are starting a five-game road trip here and likely have their eyes on a much bigger game Sunday in Toronto. That'll be a revenge spot for a game they lost up in Canada back on December 19th. Indiana might be 12-2 its last 14 games and 5-0 the last 5, but they've actually struggled some with the Bulls this year. In two meetings, they've won by only six and two points and failed to cover the spread both times. Chicago certainly didn't play well here at home Wednesday night, losing big to Orlando. But they just made a trade and the players should come out pretty motivated tonight. The Pacers are just 1-4 ATS their last five visits to the Windy City and they are also 1-4 ATS their last five games against teams with a win percentage below .400. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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01-03-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 135-134 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Golden State (10*) A rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals takes place Thursday night on TNT. But needless to say, neither the Rockets nor Warriors are sitting as pretty right now as they were last season. Golden State (25-13 SU) isn't running away with things as per usual and Houston (21-15 SU) has already lost nearly the same number of games as they did all of last year (17). But both have shown recent signs of turning things around. The Rockets have suffered just one loss in the last 11 games and it was by two, on the road, in the second night of a back to back. They've won and covered five straight games. But the Warriors just turned it two straight double digit road wins and there's a reason this spread is so high. Right now, they are as healthy as they've been all season. They certainly weren't healthy the last time they played Houston as both Steph Curry and Draymond Green sat. The result was getting blown out by 21 on the road. Look for them to get a measure of revenge at home as this time its the Rockets that are short-handed (no Chris Paul). Golden State won its last game 132-109 and is 4-0 ATS this year after scoring at least 130 points. Play on GOLDEN STATE. AAA |
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01-03-19 | Loyola Marymount v. Pepperdine +2.5 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Pepperdine At 12-2 straight up, Loyola Marymount has been a real surprise team so far. But the Lions didn't exactly play the most challenging of non-conference schedules. UCLA, who just had to fire Steve Alford because things got so dire in Westwood, even beat LMU 82-58 back on December 2nd. The Lions other loss came in their last road game, as nine-point favorites, at UC Riverside. They got back into the win column with a home win over UC Davis last Saturday, but I still think they're a pretty shaky favorite tonight at Pepperdine (7-7 SU) who just hit triple digits in its last game. The Waves were coming off a winless road trip before crushing Alabama A&M Monday, but are now 5-1 at home. They average 87.7 points per game here. Loyola Marymount, in its seven games away from home this year, has averaged just 63.7 points per game. So you can see why I'm skeptical of them. The Lions do play good defense, but they are 1-7 ATS their last eight times as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Play on PEPPERDINE AAA |
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01-02-19 | Colorado State v. UNLV -8.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNLV. UNLV is treading water at .500 (6-6 SU) to start the season, but I don't anticipate the Runnin' Rebels having much trouble in their conference opener tonight. They'll welcome Colorado State to Sin City and the 5-8 Rams are having a lot of trouble winning games recently. They've lost three in a row including a 20-point setback at the hands of New Mexico State on Sunday. That was also CSU's seventh loss in its last eight tries. They've covered only 3 of 10 lined games so far and have dropped both true road games, at Colorado and at Long Beach State. UNLV has been off since Christmas, which unfortunately wasn't very merry for them as they went 1-2 out in Hawaii, including a 25-point loss at the hands of Bucknell. Tonight will actually be the first time the Rebels have gotten to play at the Thomas & Mack Center since hanging tough with a good Cincinnati squad back on December 1st. They should be rested and ready to go and I look for a big win to start the New Year! Play on UNLV AAA |
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01-02-19 | Pistons +6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the PISTONS. The Pistons (16-19 SU) have lost three in a row (all on the road) and now finish the road trip in Memphis Wednesday night. This is the second night of a back to back for Detroit, who was beaten badly yesterday in Milwaukee (lost 121-98). Lucky for them though, the Grizzlies (18-18 SU) aren't playing a whole lot better right now as they've lost seven of nine and covered the spread only once during that time. That hardly makes them a tantalizing favorite, so taking the points here seems like a logical maneuver even though the Pistons are playing without rest. So far this year, Detroit has gone 2-1 ATS in the second game of a back to back. Because last night's game wasn't close, Andre Drummond saw limited playing time and that bodes well for tonight. Detroit is just 3-14 its last 17 games against Memphis, which seems odd as I don't see the Grizzlies as being a substantially better team. I'll take the points here as the Pistons at least keep it close and certainly are capable of winning the game outright. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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01-01-19 | Blazers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Sacramento. The 19-17 Kings host the 21-16 Blazers here. Sacramento has been flying under the radar this year and the end result has been one of the better ATS records in the league (21-15). They definitely have their issues playing defense, but just split a home and home with the Lakers and have won three straight home games overall. Portland has struggled on the road this year, going 7-10 straight up. That includes a 5-10 record when priced as the underdog. They too have defensive issues; namely on the road where they give up 114.1 points per game, which is way more than they allow at home. I think most will be surprised to see the Blazers as such a short favorite here, but don't be one of those who falls for the oddsmakers "trap." They're not going to play anywhere near as well as they did Saturday at home against Philadelphia (who was playing without Joel Embiid). Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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01-01-19 | Washington +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Washington in the Rose Bowl. I'll be taking the points with Washington in the Rose Bowl as they are the better defensive team and an all-around undervalued side. While Ohio State (12-1) has the better won-loss record (Washington 10-3), the Huskies' three losses were all close games and they could have won all of them. They were basically three plays away from being unbeaten. While a lot of focus here is on how the Buckeyes finished their regular season (destroyed rival Michigan), Washington was pretty impressive in its own right, holding Washington State and Utah to just 18 total points. The Huskies have one of the top defenses in the country (15.5 PPG allowed), so that will keep them in this game. With this being Urban Meyer's final game patrolling the sidelines, everyone is loading up pn the Buckeyes, but that's inflated the number. Washington was an underdog only twice this year, vs. Auburn and at Washington State. They won in Pullman and lost to Auburn by only five, a game they easily could have won. Play WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-01-19 | Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* WINNER on Iowa in the Outback Bowl. In my eyes, this Outback Bowl matchup of 8-4 Iowa and 8-4 Mississippi State pits two very underrated teams against one another. But in the end, I feel the favorite's inability to score consistently will cost them here, laying so many points. The Iowa defense gives up just 17.4 points per game. Mississippi State gives up the fewest in the country (12.0), so it should be a low-scoring game all around. With points likely at a premium in a matchup such as this, the underdog just seems like the right move. There were four times this year that Miss State was held under 10 points. Most of the Bulldogs dominant performances were against non-bowl teams. Of Iowa's four losses, three were by six points or fewer and the other (28-17 vs. Wisconsin) saw them give up two touchdowns in the final minute. Miss State was generally dominated in its losses. Oddsmakers agree that this is going to be a low-scoring game and taking points in the way to go. Play IOWA. AAA |
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12-30-18 | Colts -3.5 v. Titans | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indianapolis Colts. This is a big game, as the winner will advance with a wild card spot, while the loser will be going golfing. Andrew Luck and the Colts though annihilated the Titans 38-10 at home in the first matchup this year and we believe a similar result is in the cards here as well. Also note that Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota is questionable for this one and if he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% health. Finally note that the Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, while the Titans are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. teams with winning road records. Lay the points, play on the COLTS. AAA Sports |
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12-30-18 | Bengals v. Steelers -14.5 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -103 | 77 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a beatdown from start to finish here. The Bengals come in off a 26-18 road loss to Cleveland, while Pittsburgh fell 31-28 on the road in New Orleans last Sunday. The Steelers have won seven straight in the series though, including a 28-21 road win in the first one this year. Bengals’ starting QB Andy Dalton though isn’t playing anymore and the Bengals have nothing to play for. Pittsburgh has to win this game and have the Ravens lose to Cleveland to make the postseason. We’re expecting the under-achieving home side to lay the foot on the gas from start to finish. Note that the STEELERS are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS win, while Cincinnati is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a road loss vs. a division rival. Lay the points with confidence. AAA Sports |
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12-29-18 | Warriors -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Golden State Warriors. We had a play on the Blazers on Thursday night in their upset win at Golden State, but we think the defending champs will risk life and limb to get back into the winners circle tonight. The Warriors are healthy and they have no excuses right now, other than they aren’t playing fantastic and they’re running into some determined competition. But enough is enough. Clearly the Warriors possess the talent and experience to annihilate any team off the face of the planet at any given time. The Blazers are tough at home, but we think that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Note that the WARRIORS are already 3-1 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games, while the Blazers are still just 7-10 ATS as an underdog this season. Lay the points, this one has blowout written all over it. AAA Sports |
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12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Charlotte Hornets. Two hungry teams collide on Friday night, but we think that the home court advantage will prove crucial in this matchup. This is the conclusion of a home and home set in which the Nets took the first one 134-132 in double OT. Brooklyn has been playing amazing of late having won nine of ten, but we absolutely believe this now sets up as a classic letdown spot after the epic double OT win at home. The Hornets on the other hand come in on the other end of the spectrum with two straight losses and back below .500. Charlotte is the “hungrier” team by far. Additionally note that Brooklyn is a poor 3-4 ATS already this year after a win by six points or less, while the HORNETS are already 10-3 ATS this year after having lost two of their last three games. Lay the points and expect a complete blowout. AAA Sports |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse -1 v. West Virginia | Top | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Syracuse. We think WVU goes through the motions today. The Mountaineers ended their regular season on a two-game losing streak. Syracuse is 9-3 overall and it’s 5-1 in its last six. The Orange have scored at least 40 points in each of their last five victories with extra time off to prepare, we think Syracuse is the “hungrier” team here. WVU enters without starting QB Will Grier, who skips the bowl to enter the NFL draft. Backup Jack Allison has only attempted ten passes in 2018. Note that WVU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven neutral site games as well, while Syracuse is 4-1-1 ATS In its last six non-conference games. Play on SYRACUSE. AAA Sports |
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12-28-18 | Detroit v. Youngstown State -1 | Top | 78-66 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Youngstown State. This is each team’s Horizon League Opener. Detroit enters off a 69-55 road loss to Xavier, while the Penguins fell 75-56 at Ohio State. Detroit has lost six straight. It’s 1-7 on the road. The Titans are averaging 68.3 PPG and allowing 78.2. Youngstown State hasn’t played since December 18th. Overall Youngstown State averages 76.4 PPG, while allowing 81.6. Note that the Penguins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine when playing with ten or more days rest, while Detroit is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Look for the rested PENGUINS to pull away down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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12-27-18 | Blazers +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-109 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers will be hungry for a bounce back performances here after getting crushed 117-96 in Utah on Tuesday. A date vs. the Warriors is just what the doctor ordered, as the defending champs have never looked more “beatable” than they do now after their poor 127-101 loss to the Lakers on Monday. Note that this is a revenge game as well for Portland after it fell 125-97 here last month in the only other matchup of the year. The Blazers average 111 points and they allow 110.9. The Warriors average 115.6 PPG and they allow 112. Note that Portland is already 10-6 ATS this year trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State is just 4-9 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Play on the TRAILBLAZERS. AAA Sports |
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12-26-18 | TCU +1 v. California | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 37 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on TCU. These teams are evenly matched as far as the points per game (Cal averages 22.8 PPG, and TCU averages 24.4) and in points allowed (Cal concedes 21.2 and TCU allows 24.4). However, TCU comes in with considerable momentum and we think it’ll carry over here after a 31-24 home win over Oklahoma State pushed them to eligibility. Cal on the other hand hand won four of five before a date with Standford in its finale, a game which saw it fall 10-6. Note that TCU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games following a win in which it scored 30 or more points in and also earned the cover, while Cal is just 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. Play on TCU. AAA Sports |
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12-25-18 | Colorado -15 v. Charlotte | Top | 68-53 | Push | 0 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Colorado. We’re banking on a blowout from start to finish. This is the consolation game at the Stan Sherrif Center in Honolulu. Colorado went to Hawaii on six-game win streak, but it’s lost two straight in this tournament. Charlotte has lost five of its last six after falling to Rhode Island most recently. Note though that Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a favorite. This one has blowout written all over it; play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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12-25-18 | Bucks v. Knicks +10.5 | Top | 109-95 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Knicks. We’re not calling for the outright victory, but this one is going to be much closer battle that what this spread would suggest in our opinion. The Bucks look susceptible to us after their 94-87 road loss to Miami on Saturday, while New York will be hungry to get back on track after a 114-107 loss to the Hawks on Friday. Note that the teams have already split a pair of games this year as well. Additionally note that Milwaukee is already a poor 2-4 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 3-7 ATS this season as a road favorite, while New York is already 4-1 ATS this year as a home dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points; play on the KNICKS. AAA Sports |
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12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts -9 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF. SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Colts. We’re not expecting any upsets here as we look for Indianapolis to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Indianapolis is a team on a mission right now and it’ll be looking to build off its 23-0 home win over Dallas last week. The Giants tried their best to play spoiler last week, but they got destroyed by the Titans. With OBJ sidelined, we’re not giving the visitors much of a chance in this difficult road venue. With last week’s loss the Giants are now officially out of contention. The Colts though are firing on all cylinders and could be the team to beat in the AFC this year. Note that New York is just 4-10-2 ATS in is last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record, while Indianapolis is 32-14-1 ATS in its last 47 vs. teams with losing records. Lay the points; play on the COLTS. AAA Sports |
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12-22-18 | UC-Davis +17 v. Arizona | Top | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on UC Davis. The UC Davis Aggies are 3-7 and the Arizona Wildcats are 8-4. We’re not predicting an outright upset, but we think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent. The Aggies come in off an 83-65 home win over NAIA program William Jessup last weekend, wile Arizona smashed Montana 61-42 in its most recent action. UC Davis struggles offensively, averaging only 60.8 PPG, but it’s “decent” defensively in allowing 68.2. The Wildcats average 74.3 PPG and they allow 65.3. Note though that CAL DAVIS is still 18-10 ATS in its last 28 after failing to cover the spread in its previous outing, while Arizona is only 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite in the 15.5 to 18 points range. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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12-21-18 | Ole Miss v. Middle Tennessee +12.5 | Top | 74-56 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on MTSU. Ole Miss comes in complacent here after five straight wins in our opinion. The Blue Raiders are by far the “hungrier” side, because after starting 3-1, MTSU has lost seven straight. We’re not calling for the outright upset, but the conditions are certainly right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Blue Raiders have issues, but one has been their difficult non-conference schedule. This one is no different, but at least the Blue Raiders are in friendly confines. Note as well that Ole Miss is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight victories by ten points or more, while MTSU is still 4-2 ATS in its last six vs. the SEC; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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12-21-18 | BYU -12 v. Western Michigan | Top | 49-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on BYU. Both teams were forced to change up their starting QB’s half way through the season. We think that BYU’s tough defensive play though will prove to be the difference today. Kaleb Eleby got the 28-21 win over NIU in the Broncos regular season finale, but he’ll have his handful today with a Cougars’ defense which allowed just 21.7 PPG, ranked in the top 20 in the country. BYU is still 3-0 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while WMU is just already 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Lay the point; play on BYU. AAA Sports |
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12-20-18 | Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -4.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR BLOWOUT on LBSU. Pepperdine comes in off an 82-67 loss to Oregon State, while LBSU lost 74-68 to Pacific in its latest contest. Last year LBSU won this game on the road 78-71. The Waves though have already dropped all four of their true road games this year and we think they’re going to struggle here against this equally as hungry/desperate home side. Overall Pepperdine averages 79.2 PPG, while allowing an average of 76.8. LBSU has averaged 71.1 PPG in the early going, while allowing 79.2. We’d argue though that the 49ers have played the stiffer competition to this point. Additionally note that LBSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU loss and interestingly 22-8 ATS in its last 30 vs. the West Coast Conference, while Pepperdine is just 5-15-1 TS in its last 21 vs. teams with a losing record. Play on LBSU. AAA Sports |
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12-19-18 | Western Kentucky +5.5 v. Belmont | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Western Kentucky. WKU comes in as the “hungrier” team at 5-5. Belmont enters complacent at 8-1. The Hilltoppers are out to atone for a terrible 87-81 loss to Troy as a ten point fav in their last outing. Overall WKU averages 72.8 PPG. Belmont is averaging 90.6 PPG and overall the Bruins have looked good on both ends of the floor. But we’ll caution in reading too much into their early numbers, which are skewed in our opinion due to the level of competition to this point. Note as well that WKU is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after a loss by six points or less, while Belmont is already 0-2 ATS this season following a road victory. Grab the points; play on WESTERN KENTUCKY. AAA Sports |
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12-18-18 | Mavs +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 118-126 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dallas Mavericks. Two teams which we’re really expected to do too much this year in the Western Conference have defied the odds to this point. Dallas is 15-13 and Denver is 20-9. We think the Nuggets get caught looking past the Mavs today though and we love the visitors to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Mavericks come in as the “hungrier” team. Dallas has lost two in a row after a three-game win streak. The Mavs average 109.6 PPG and they allow 108.1. The Nuggets average 109.4 and they allow 102.9. But after three straight home wins, including a victory over the Raptors in their latest, all signs point to a classic letdown here in our opinion. Note that the MAVERICKS are already 5-1 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more, while Denver is already just 3-4 ATS this year after playing two straight home games. We’re banking on a battle; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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12-18-18 | East Carolina v. Charlotte | Top | 49-55 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Charlotte. East Carolina is 6-4 and Charlotte is 2-5. We think that the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done here. ECU went into its exam break with two straight wins, but we think the extra time off ruins that chemistry. Charlotte is only averaging 58.9 PPG in the early going, but a lot of that has to do with the level of competition it’s faced so far. Most recently the 49ers enter off an 80-56 defeat to Wake Forest. Note that ECU is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after playing a game as a home favorite and 0-5 ATS in its last five after two or more straight home wins, while Charlotte is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more. Play on the 49ERS. AAA Sports |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois +3 v. UAB | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Northern Illinois. With two weeks off to prepare, we think the NIU Huskies will keep this one close. NIU averages only 20.7 PPG, but the Huskies make up for it on the other end of the field by allowing just 21.5. UAB averages 29.3 PPG and it allows 17.3. We’d argue though that the Huskies face tougher competition in the MAC. UAB QB AJ Erdely is questionable for this one as well and if he can’t go, then Tyler Johnston III will get the call. Regardless, it’s not an ideal situation for the Blazers. Note that the Huskies are 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year, while UAB is interestingly 0-3 ATS in its last three vs. the MAC. Grab the points, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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12-17-18 | Blazers +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 131-127 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Portland Trailblazers. Portland comes in off a big come from behind win over Toronto and we look for it to carry that momentum over here. LA on the other hand has already started to slide after its big start to the season, coming in having lost three straight. The Clippers were overachieving to start the year and we think they’re completely out of gas at this point. Portland won’t be taking anything for granted, as the win over the Raptors broke a two-game slide. This is a revenge game as well and note that the BLAZERS are 8-4 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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12-17-18 | Western Illinois +9 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 76-91 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Western Illinois. It’s the 4-7 Western Illinois Leathernecks vs. the 5-4 NIU Huskies and we think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Overall the Leathernecks average 69.3 points and allow 72.9. The Huskies are averaging 80 points and allowing 78. Note that four of Western Illinois’ seven losses has been decided by single digits. NIU has been horrible defensively and we think the hungry visitors will keep this one competitive late. Note as well that Western Illinois is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five after falling to cover three of the last four against the spread. Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Pittsburgh Steelers. If you’re wagering on this game, then a “break down” of individual player match-ups, a history of what the two teams have done against each other and their strengths and weaknesses are well known to even the most casual NFL fan. It wouldn’t be hard to make a convincing argument for either of these teams. Both have looked unbeatable at times this season and they’ve also each looked pretty terrible in others. This time around though, we really do think that home field will prove to be a big difference maker this week. Note as well that New England is already only 1-3 ATS this year as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog. Play on the STEELERS. AAA Sports |
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12-16-18 | CS-Fullerton +14.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on CS Fullerton. We think the 9-1 San Francisco Dons get caught looking past the lowly 3-7 Cal State Fullerton Titans. The Titans come in off an 81-66 loss to Saint Mary’s on Monday. Austen Awosika had 19 points, four boards, five assists, one block and a steal in the setback. Overall the Titans average 76.5 PPG, while allowing 71.9. San Fran averages 80.7 PPG and it’s allowing 58.6. Now, we think the Dons numbers are skewed slightly due to the level of its early competition. Note as well that the Titans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after having lost four or five of their last six games, while the Dons are still just 13-16 ATS in their last 29 as a home favorite. Grab the points, play on CS FULLERTON. AAA Sports |
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12-15-18 | Celtics v. Pistons +2 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Detroit Pistons. The Celtics come in “flat” here in our opinion after their 129-108 home win over Atlanta last night. Detroit covered in its last game in Charlotte on Wednesday, but the Pistons will be hungry to get back into the winners circle after their tough 108-107 setback to the Hornets. They’re also out to avenge a 108-105 loss in Boston back on October 30th. It’s a perfect situational play for the PISTONS, but also note that the Celtics are just 7-9 ATS on the road this year and only 30-36 ATS after having won six or seven of their last eight games, while Detroit is already 6-2 ATS in its last eight when playing with double revenge after two straight loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +9 v. Utah State | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas. Outright upset? Probably not, but we think the Mean Green will keep this one interesting late. UNT was 9-3 overall and 5-3 in the C-USA, while Utah State went 10-2 overall and 7-1 in the Mountain West. UNT averages 36.4 PPG and it allows only 21.8. Utah State averages 47.2 PPG and it allows 23. On paper, this one favors Utah State, but with the extra time off to prepare and with nothing to lose, we expect the Mean Green to take this one down to the wire. Note as well that Utah State is just 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with winning records, while UNT is still 10-3 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games. Grab the points; play on NORTH TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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12-14-18 | Raptors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Portland Trailblazers. We think this one sets up as a natural letdown spot after the Raptors beat the Warriors in Golden State last time out, even without the services of offensive star Kawhi Leonard. The Blazers come in as the off back-to-back losses though and they’ll clearly be the “hungrier” team here. A great situational play, but also note that Toronto is interestingly just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 vs. the Northwest Division, while Portland is still 9-5 ATS at home. Grab the points, play on the BLAZERS. AAA Sports |
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12-12-18 | Pistons +5.5 v. Hornets | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Detroit Pistons. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Detroit is still 6-4 ATS in its last ten road games, while Charlotte is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 118 points or more in its previous contest (beat Knicks 119-107 on the road Sunday.) The bottom line: The PISTONS come in as the hungrier team after five straight losses. While Detroit may not win outright, we’re expecting this one to come right down to the wire; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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12-10-18 | Long Beach State +5.5 v. Pacific | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on LBSU. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that LBSU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a two games or more losing streak and in which it’s an underdog of five points or higher, while Pacific is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the +5 to +8 points range. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Seattle Seahawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 14 points or less in its previous competition, while Seattle is already 3-1 ATS at home and when playing the role of favorite this year, but also 8-2 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest. The bottom line: This is an important game for both teams, but home field is a major advantage here. Expect Russell Wilson to deliver the goods; play on the SEAHAWKS. AAA Sports |
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12-09-18 | Hornets -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Charlotte Hornets. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Charlotte is 8-2 ATS already this year after having lost two of its last three games and 6-2 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games, while New York is just 8-10 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 PPG and only 8-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. The bottom line: After an extended losing streak, the HORNETS got back on track last time out. No overlooking their opponent today either; lay the points. AAA Sports |
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12-09-18 | Falcons v. Packers -5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 53 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Green Bay Packers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog already this year and 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off an upset loss as a favorite, while Green Bay is still 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range and 4-1 ATS in its last five after having lost five or six out of its last seven games. The bottom line: The loser is officially eliminated. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t go down without a fight, especially at home. Lay the points; play on the PACKERS. AAA Sports |
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