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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI FL Quarterback is a question mark for Miami coming into the ACC opener vs. Virginia. D’Eriq King is still dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss last week’s game vs. Central Connecticut State. However, the combination of Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia led the Hurricanes to 69 points and 739 yards. You’re probably saying “well, look at who they were playing.” Yes, it’s true those numbers came against a FCS team. But Virginia’s defense might not be much better. It gave up nearly 700 yards in a 59-39 loss to North Carolina, then it allowed 473 in a 37-17 loss to Wake Forest last Thursday. This is the third straight year that the Cavaliers are visiting Hard Rock Stadium. The offense put up only 9 and 14 points in a pair of losses the last two seasons. Now they’re going to score more than that here. Their QB Brennan Armstrong has been very good. But not good enough to overcome a terrible defense. Miami is getting back RB Jaylan Knighton from a four-game suspension. Virginia has not been a good road team the last few seasons. If King plays for Miami, just consider that a huge bonus. The Canes will cover the number no matter who is in at quarterback. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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09-30-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 130 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) Baltimore has lost 13 of the last 15 times they’ve played Boston. But one of the two wins came in the opener of this series, 4-2 on Tuesday. The Red Sox struck back with a 6-0 win last night, which ended a four-game losing streak. The Orioles have been more competitive than usual over the past week, winning three of the last six games. They have been relegated to the role of spoiler in this AL Wild Card race and would like nothing more than to help knock Boston out of the playoffs. The Red Sox aren’t nearly as good on the road where they are just 39-37 and scoring 4.3 runs/game. They allow that same number of runs per game, so we give the O’s a chance to steal another one tonight. At the very least, they’ll keep the game within a run. The Red Sox are 1-5 in Nick Pivetta’s last six starts and he’s pitched better than usual of late. Pivetta has never lost to Baltimore, but his ERA in four starts against them this year is 4.15. Alexander Wells is still looking for his first win after eight starts and the good news is he’s coming off the best one since his season debut. There’s a lot of pressure on Boston right now with two teams within a game of them for that second Wild Card. Might they crack? Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 101 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GB Things were looking pretty dicey for Green Bay Monday night. They’d been blown out 38-3 by New Orleans in the opener, then trailed at the half to Detroit at home. But Aaron Rodgers, as he’s wont to do, took over in the second half and made the skepticism look foolish. The Packers now get a favorable matchup against a banged-up 49ers team Sunday night. Green Bay has covered four of the last five times after playing on Monday Night Football. As a road underdog, Rodgers is on a 5-2 ATS run. San Francisco is 2-0 with road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. Neither of those opponents are expected to be any good, so they should be 2-0. The problem is the last two times the Niners have played at home following back to back road games on the East Coast, they have lost outright. All five times they were favored at home last year, they failed to cover. But the biggest problem - even more than facing Rodgers - are the injuries. Running back is perilously thin with the only two available ball carries combining for just two carries for -1 yard this year. Missing CB Verrett seems problematic going against Rodgers. San Fran was outgained last week despite beating Philly 17-11. Green Bay’s defense held Detroit to zero points in the second half Monday night. The 49ers’ defense gave up more than 400 yards to the Lions. Grab the points. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks -1 v. Vikings | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -123 | 42 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Seattle is 1-1 after letting one slip away in the fourth quarter last week. They blew a 14-point lead to Tennessee and lost 33-30 in overtime. As crushing a defeat as that was for the Seahawks, it’s nothing compared to what the Vikings have experienced the first two weeks of the season. Mike Zimmer’s team is 0-2 with the losses coming by a total of four points. Both games came down to a field goal attempt on the final play. In Week 1, Dalvin Cook’s fumble led to a game-winner for Cincinnati in overtime. In Week 2, the Vikings’ kicker missed what would have been the game winner and it was a 34-33 loss to Arizona. Minnesota is now just 1-8 ATS its last nine games and had the second worst cover percentage in the league the last two seasons. Russell Wilson should carve up their porous secondary, throwing to Tyler Lockett, who is second in the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. The Seahawks are 7-0 vs. the Vikings with Wilson at QB including wins each of the last three seasons. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-26-21 | Falcons +3 v. Giants | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Here are two 0-2 teams that haven’t played particularly well. But the Giants tend to fall into a predictable pattern. They cover the spread when on the road, they fail to cover when at home. Last Thursday they improved to 17-5 ATS as road dogs, covering the number at Washington in a 30-29 loss. But this week they’re back home. The G-men are just 5-12 ATS in East Rutherford the last two seasons. They didn’t cover in the home opener, losing to Denver 27-13 as three-point dogs. This week they are laying points for the first time in 2021. We like the opportunity to take points against one of the worst teams in the league. This is the fifth consecutive season that New York has opened 0-2. Atlanta has struggled, but also played better than the score showed last week vs. Tampa Bay. Matt Ryan had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter, resulting in a misleading 48-25. The Falcons, believe it or not, outgained the Bucs. Ryan, with his quick release, should not be bothered by an anemic Giants’ pass rush which far too often fails to get home. Saquon Barkley is pretty clearly not fully recovered from his ACL injury. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-35 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Both Colorado and Arizona State are off losses. Colorado has lost its last two games and scored just seven points in doing so. But ASU is 0-3 ATS and one of the most penalized teams in the country, a bad combination when asked to lay double digits in a conference game. This spread should definitely be closer to one touchdown, not two. Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils started 2021 with Top 25 aspirations but those went out the window with last week’s poor showing against BYU. You would have thought BYU was in a bad situation as they were coming off an upset over rival Utah. But four ASU turnovers paved the way for the Cougars to make it two straight upsets over the Pac 12. Colorado’s offensive numbers from last week are going to scare a lot of bettors away but you’ve got to remember this team was very close to defeating Texas A&M two weeks ago. ASU is just 3-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2019. Things can get pretty crazy “after dark” in the Pac 12. Why not here? Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEBRASKA So Michigan State is 3-0, which is something that no one outside of East Lansing expected. Twice so far Sparty has gone off as the underdog. They won at Northwestern in the season opener and then at Miami FL last week. Not to diminish what Mel Tucker is accomplishing here but Northwestern isn’t very good and Miami shot itself in the foot with two fourth quarter turnovers that turned a close 17-14 game into a 38-17 blowout. Sparty finished +4 in turnovers, which was the difference in a game where the number of total yards gained by the two teams was essentially even. The public now seems to have fallen in love with MSU as they are laying a short number at home to two-loss Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers should have beaten Illinois in the opener and then fared much better than expected last week against Oklahoma. They only lost 23-16 despite being 22.5 point underdogs to the #4 ranked team in the country. Since the opening week loss, QB Martinez has turned it over only one time and that was an incredible interception by Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham last week inside the 10-yard line. Had it not been for that play and a blocked XP that was returned for two points, the Cornhuskers could have beaten the Sooners. Nebraska has covered five of the last six times it has been off a loss and they are 8-1 ATS the L9 games vs. Michigan State. This will be the first time this year the Spartans are favored to beat an FBS opponent. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Grab the points. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on KANSAS STATE Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has outscored opponents by only 13 points. They held on to beat Missouri State 23-16, barely escaped Tulsa and then won by one point at Boise State. The 28-23 win against Tulsa required three fourth quarter touchdowns. Boise State was another fourth quarter comeback as the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 2:10 to win 21-20. Given all those close calls, we will gladly grab the points with Kansas State this week. The Wildcats are also 3-0 and now find themselves in the Top 25. They’ve beaten Stanford 24-7, Southern Illinois 31-23 and Nevada 38-17. Along the way they did lose QB Skylar Thompson to injury. But what’s key to winning this game is the Wildcats’ ability to stop the run. Their defense is giving up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt. OSU likes to run the ball, but probably won’t be too successful this week. Kansas State is 13-4 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1998. They’ve also done a great job covering the spread as underdogs. They are on a 44-22-1 ATS run when taking points. Oklahoma State has not covered any of the last four times it’s been favored in Stillwater. Grab those points. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa -23 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is looking very good this season. They’ve climbed up to #5 in the polls, its highest ranking in nearly six years. Kirk Ferentz’s defense has led the way by giving up only 30 points total in three games. Keep in mind they’ve already beaten two ranked P5 teams, Indiana and Iowa State, and did so convincingly. Here’s something else to consider - the Hawkeyes’ defense has scored the same number of touchdowns that it has allowed this season. That would be three. They also registered a safety last week against Kent State, which allowed them to cover the spread for the third consecutive game. This week they host a Colorado State team that’s 1-2 and averaging only 22 points despite facing Toledo, Vanderbilt and South Dakota State. After losing their first two games, both as favorites, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6 despite never scoring an offensive TD. They will struggle mightily on offense in this game. Perhaps we all should have seen Iowa coming now that they’ve won nine straight games overall and 14 straight non-conference games. The offense may not be as good as the defense but has gone over 24 points every time during the nine-game run. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since 2018. Including last week, Iowa has covered three of the last four times it has been a favorite of 20 or more. Colorado State has never faced them before and will likely still wish that was the case after Saturday. The home team can name the score here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas -7.5 | Top | 35-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Most of the recent Texas-Texas Tech clashes have come down to the wire. We don’t think this one will. Even with all the close calls, like last year’s somewhat miraculous 63-56 win in overtime, the Longhorns have managed to still take 15 of the last 18 meetings from the Red Raiders. They’ve also won four straight Big 12 openers. This is the first conference game of 2021 for both teams. Texas Tech is the one that comes in unbeaten as they are 3-0 for the first time since 2017. But that’s what you’d expect them to be given who they’ve played (Houston, Stephen F Austin and FIU). The Red Raiders run defense has been stout against the inferior competition, but here you’ve got a Texas team that just ran the ball for over 400 yards last week against Rice. That was a much needed effort after the ‘Horns were corralled by Arkansas two weeks ago. But it turns out that Arkansas is pretty good. Losing to them 40-21 put a dent in Texas’ reputation but we still think they have a Top 25 team in Austin. The Longhorns allowed only 284 total yards in the 58-0 win over Rice last Saturday. Texas Tech has not won a true road game since 2019 and is just 1-9 SU in them under Matt Wells. This should be a double digit spread. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Push | 0 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee is 1-2 with both losses coming on the road to FBS opponents. They opened 2021 by defeating Monmouth, an FCS school, 50-15 as 8.5 point favorites. But then came losses at Virginia Tech and UTSA, neither of which saw the Blue Raiders cover. Now those are two good teams they faced. Both are much better than the team they face this week. Charlotte started 2-0 but then lost last week at Georgia State. The 49ers could only score nine points, making you wonder what they did to deserve to be favored this week. They did upset Duke in the very first game, 31-28 as a 6.5 point pup. But they did give up 580 yards in that win. The other win for Charlotte came against Gardner-Webb, another FCS team. While this is the first time since 2009 that Middle Tennessee has had to play three straight games on the road, we predicted them to finish ahead of Charlotte in the Conference USA East Division. Therefore, an opportunity to take points is something we don’t dare pass up. These schools did not face off last season because of COVID. But MTSU has won four of the last five meetings. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA |
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09-21-21 | Pirates v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CIN -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Reds are 11-3 against the Pirates this year. They beat them 9-5 on Monday. So we’ve got no hesitation about playing the run line today as the home team should once again easily win by two or more runs. Pittsburgh, as you know, is one of the worst teams. They actually did lead 5-0 early on yesterday, but from there it was all Reds, who scored the game’s final nine runs. There was an 85-minute rain delay, so maybe that’s why Cincinnati started slow out of the gate. What we do know is that Pittsburgh probably won’t score five runs again tonight. They have the lowest run total of any team. They put up only 3.4 per game on the road where they are now 22-53. Tyler Mahle, who is tied with Wade Miley for the team lead in wins on the Reds’ staff, is 3-0 vs. the Pirates this year with a 1.47 ERA. Making today’s starting pitching matchup even less favorable for the visitors is that Mitch Keller is 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. The previous series that these teams played saw all four games decided by one run. So the odds of that happening again are pretty small. The Reds are three games behind a Cardinals team that has won nine straight for the second Wild Card. They need to rack up wins. Play on CINCINNATI -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-20-21 | Lions +11.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DET Even against the Lions, this is too many points for the Packers to lay in a battle of 0-1 NFC North teams. Did you see how awful the Pack looked in Week 1? They got thumped 38-3 by a Saints team that just got blown out by Carolina yesterday. The game wasn’t even in New Orleans as it got moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. It got so ugly that Aaron Rodgers was pulled from the game. The Packers ran only 15 times for 43 yards, so there wasn’t much help for the reigning MVP. The defense allowed Jameis Winston to throw five touchdown passes. Compare that to yesterday when the Saints gained just 128 yards and didn’t score until the fourth quarter. Detroit at least covered the spread in their season opener. That was thanks to a late rally against San Francisco. The offense did gain 430 yards and if it can come anywhere close to that tonight, then they will again cover the spread. The Lions have covered six of the last seven times they’ve faced the Packers and three of the last four times they’ve lost to them, the game was decided by no more than seven points. With it still being early in the season, Detroit is going to play hard for its first year coach Dan Campbell. How can you lay double digits with Green Bay after last week’s performance? Play on DETROIT AAA |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City came from behind to defeat Cleveland 32-29 in Week 1. Baltimore blew a lead and lost 33-27 in Las Vegas. This is a short week for the Ravens as that game in LV was Monday night. They were seven seconds away from winning in regulation but that was ripped away from them. Then came a wild overtime that left them deflated. Few teams have already endured the amount of injuries the Ravens have. Already eight players have landed on the IR. Facing Patrick Mahomes is never easy when fully healthy. Baltimore is anything but right now. Lamar Jackson has never beaten Mahomes before. The Ravens defense looks questionable right now. Are they really going to fix their defensive issues on a short week against the MVP? We say “no.” Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have averaged 31.3 points in three previous wins over the Ravens. Jackson has a sub-55 percent completion rate in his three games vs. the Chiefs. Andy Reid has won 70% of the time in his coaching career when having the rest advantage. Mahomes is 16-8-1 ATS on the road his career. Love the idea of getting to lay such a short number with the best team in the AFC. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-19-21 | Titans v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Two weeks in a row we’re going against Tennessee. It worked pretty well last week, didn’t it? The Titans got blitzed out of the box, were down 17-0 before they knew it and ended up losing 38-13 at home to the Arizona Cardinals. We didn’t even need those points we took with the Cards. Now it’s the Titans who are underdogs. We just don’t see them staying with the Seahawks in Seattle. So much of what we wrote about Tennessee last week rang true. The offense just isn’t going to be able to match last season’s numbers even with WR Julio Jones in the fold. There’s a lot of tread on the tires of Derrick Henry and he was held to 58 yards on 17 carries by the Cardinals. It just so happens that Seattle’s defense just held Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor to almost identical numbers - 56 yards on 17 carries. The Titans’ offensive line gave up six sacks to the Cardinals while the Seahawks sacked Carson Wentz constantly in Week 1. But worst of all for the Titans is that their defense looked every bit as bad as it did in 2020. They allowed over 400 yards and it was another game with 30 or more points allowed, something they did eight times last season. The Titans were 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage in 2020. Wilson will carve them up much the same way he did another AFC South team last week. He threw four touchdown passes in a 28-16 win over Indianapolis. The Seahawks led the game by double digits the entire second half. Everyone knows this is one of the stronger homefield edges in the NFL. Considering what Kyler Murray was able to do to the Titans, Wilson is likely to do the same. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-19-21 | Rams -3.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA RAMS The Rams looked very impressive Sunday night when they beat the Bears 34-14 as a nine-point favorite. New QB Matt Stafford looked right at home in Sean McVay’s offense as the former Lion threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford could be in line for another 300-plus yard day this week, or at least close to that, when he faces a Colts secondary that just gave up four touchdown passes to Russell Wilson. In sharp contrast to the Rams, Indy looked bad in a 28-16 opening week loss. Carson Wentz, not long removed from foot surgery, was a sitting duck behind an offensive line that played poorly. The Rams have Aaron Donald so Wentz is likely to be under duress yet again this week. Worth noting is that the Colts have never covered in four previous tries as a home underdog under Frank Reich. McVay is 8-3 straight up and against the spread as a favorite of -3.5 to -9.5. You’ve got to be careful not to overreact to one week, but the Rams looked really good in Week 1 and the Colts simply did not. The Rams have also been a really good road team during McVay’s time here, winning 23 of 34 games. They have been perfect in road openers the last four years averaging over 30 points/game. Lay it! Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-17-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOR -1.5 It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-64), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. They were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and it was not long after that they began to surge. Winners in 16 of their last 19 games, Toronto finds itself in position to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. But they cannot afford to let up. There are five teams separated by only four games in contention for the two Wild Card spots. Boston is tied with Toronto and the Yankees are a half-game back. We don’t see there being any sort of letdown Friday as the Blue Jays face a Twins team that is already eliminated from playoff contention. Minnesota (64-83) lost 12-3 at home to Cleveland on Wednesday as it’s been a very disappointing season where they’ve dropped 28.5 units. That has them as the second worst team to bet on in 2021. Only Arizona (-37.1 units) has been less profitable. We haven’t hesitated to lay the -1.5 on the run line with Toronto recently. The last time we did so, they won 22-7 against Baltimore! Only three teams have a better run differential for the year. We like Hyun-Jin Ryu being on the mound tonight as Minnesota is 16-33 vs. lefties. Michael Pineda has a 3-7 team start record for the Twins since June 1st. The Blue Jays have won 18 of the 22 games this season where they closed as a home favorite of -175 or higher. They’ll win this one by at least two runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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09-16-21 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB -1.5 Before they lost two of three in Toronto, the Rays lost two of three in Detroit last weekend. The deciding game was a real back and forth affair as the Tigers rallied back from a three-run deficit in the eighth inning, then scored two runs to win the game in the bottom of the 10th. Things should go quite differently at Tropicana Field though. So much so that we are willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line with the Rays tonight. The Tigers just aren’t very good outside the Motor City. Their record as a road underdog of +175 to +250 is 9-17 this year and going back to 2019, the record is 21-47. Tampa Bay has captured 37 of its last 51 games as a favorite. (They were underdogs in all three games at Toronto). When they’re at home, the Rays are winning by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Key to that margin is holding visitors to 3.3 runs/game. It’ll be Louis Head as an opener, followed by Dietrich Enns pitching for the Rays tonight. Enns had a really impressive relief effort against the Tigers last weekend where he didn’t allow a single base runner for four innings. With him expected to pitch the bulk of today’s game, don’t look for the Tigers to score much. Most don’t realize this, but the Rays are the top offensive team in baseball. Tyler Alexander has a 9-2 team start record for Detroit including a 10-4 win over the Rays last weekend. But we see his luck running out here. His two starts in September have lasted a combined eight innings. The Rays have a huge edge in the bullpen in this matchup. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-14-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MIL -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Brewers have won five in a row overall. As they inch closer to the NL Central pennant, they can become the first team to 50 road wins on Tuesday when they head to Detroit. On paper, it looks like a very easy week for Milwaukee as they have two games here followed by three at home vs. the Cubs. At some point during a 10-game home stand, they will clinch the division. It’s just a matter of time. A string of strong pitching performances, including MLB’s 9th no hitter of 2021 on Saturday, have propelled the Brewers to an 89-55 record. They’ve scored 10 or more runs in three of the last five games, outscoring opponents 38-7. Detroit did just take two of three from Tampa Bay over the weekend, but they aren’t going to finish .500 and are just 4-10 in their past 14 home games. They are also 1-6 off their previous seven victories. Milwaukee has won seven of eight following an off day and 36 of its last 52 games overall. Tuesday’s starter Freddy Peralta has a 2.72 ERA and 0.95 WHIP for the Brewers and the team is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Detroit’s Wily Peralta (no relation) has not won a decision since July 18th. Pretty one-sided in our estimation. Why not lay the -1.5? Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-12-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 22-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto has finally done it! They caught the Yankees for the second Wild Card and are only a game behind Boston for the top Wild Card spot. They’ve won eight of nine after sweeping a doubleheader from Baltimore in remarkable fashion on Saturday. The first game saw them come back to win 11-10 with a four-run seventh (remember doubleheaders are only seven innings now). The second game was even wilder as they failed to get a single hit through the first six innings before erupting for an 11-run seventh! It’s Baltimore that they are facing again Sunday. After taking two crushing losses the previous day, we can’t see a team that has fallen to 50 games below .500 having much resolve today. Thus, our call is for the Blue Jays to win this game by two or more runs. From a value standpoint, the run line is obviously much better than a straight money line bet here. Steven Matz should handle a feeble Orioles lineup on Sunday. The Toronto left-hander has allowed no more than two earned runs in seven consecutive starts. Eight different Blue Jays homered on Saturday as the team scored 22 runs in 14 innings. They’re going against a rookie in Zac Lowther on Sunday. This is just Lowther’s third start and seventh appearance at the big league level. He was good in his most recent start, but the first one (which was back in May) saw him give up seven runs in 2.3 innings. Look for the Jays to rough him up on their way to a convincing win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona was 8-8 last season. So they were the definition of mediocre. It was an unpleasant end to the campaign as the Cardinals lost their final three games, which cost them a playoff opportunity. QB Kyler Murray was hampered by an injury down the stretch. He’s back and ready to go this year. Murray and the Arizona offense couldn’t have asked for a much more favorable matchup in Week 1. This Tennessee defense was bad in 2020. It ranked 24th in scoring, 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage. Healthy again and able to use his legs, Murray should do very well in this game. There were eight times last season where the Titans allowed 30 points or more. For much of the year, opposing offenses were converting at almost a 60 percent clip on third downs. The Titans still made the playoffs (11-5) thanks to the offense, which added Julio Jones for 2021. But don’t look for Tennessee to score many more points than they did last year. Can they really top over 30 points/game at home? Jones and QB Tannehill had limited reps together in training camp. Derrick Henry is coming off a heavy 2020 workload. They also lost coordinator Arthur Smith, who took the head coaching job at Atlanta. Early start times have not bothered the Cardinals in the past as they are 6-3 ATS in games played at 1 PM ET under Kliff Kingsbury. The Titans may look better on paper heading into 2021, but we’re not convinced they are actually better this year. Arizona does look better. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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09-12-21 | 49ers -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF San Francisco is the pick of most to be the most improved team in the league. They have a win total of 10.5 after going 6-10 last year. Now there’s a 17th regular season game added. But a five-win improvement is a big deal in this league. It’s certainly possible seeing as the 49ers won 13 games two years ago and made it to the Super Bowl. Will they get back to that level again for Kyle Shanahan? That remains to be seen. But you know which team won’t be in the Super Bowl in February? The Lions. They’ve never been in one, joining the Browns, Jaguars and Texans as the only franchises to never make it to the final game. Even by Lions’ standards, this team looks bad. It’s been pegged for five wins in Dan Campbell’s debut season. Matt Stafford is gone, off to LA, and his replacement (Jared Goff) is a clear downgrade. The defense was one of the worst in the league a season ago. Campbell is going to work to improve that side of the ball, but it’s going to take time. The 49ers like to run the ball and should not encounter much resistance in this one as the Lions were very poor at stopping the run last year. San Francisco has won 15 of the previous 17 encounters with Detroit. The fact they are a sizable road favorite could be head-turning for a few folks, but the Lions really are bad. They only won five games last year and four of those were by less than five points. There’s been no position that was clearly upgraded in the offseason. San Francisco fell to six wins because of poor health as multiple stars were lost to season ending injuries. The team is healthy for 2021 and Jimmy G is going to have a big passing day here. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
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09-10-21 | UTEP +26 v. Boise State | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTEP UTEP is already 2-0 on the young season. Now those wins were against New Mexico State and Bethune Cookman, the worst FBS team and a FCS team. But at last the Miners have some confidence as they travel to the blue turf in Boise, ID Friday night. Boise State’s season began with a painful 36-31 loss at UCF last Thursday. It was a game the Broncos led much of the way, including 21-0 early in the second quarter. They got an early 100-yard pick-six to start the scoring and it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that they fell behind. But the Broncos were outgained significantly, 573-283, and if you take away the pick-six then really the game wouldn’t have been that competitive. UTEP isn’t Central Florida, but should be able to move the ball enough to stay within the huge number tonight. This is easily Dana Dimel’s best team in his four year in El Paso and his most experienced. The Miners had just five wins his first three years, three of those coming last season. Now they are off to a 2-0 start and building confidence. Boise State has a new coach in Andy Avalos while coming off their worst offensive season in 25 years. Blowing a three touchdown lead on the road last week did not do wonders for the Broncos’ confidence. They gained just 59 total yards in the second half. UTEP has good wide receivers and should be able to attack a suspect secondary. We are taking the points in this matchup. Play on UTEP AAA |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ND Notre Dame beat Florida State last season 42-26. The Fighting Irish failed to cover though as they were massive 21-point favorites in South Bend. Now they are set to invade Tallahassee for the first time since 2014. We know the Irish have their doubters heading into the season and people want to believe in FSU. But ND has gone 33-5 straight up the past three seasons. Florida State is just 14-20. The gap between the two storied programs isn’t as tight as these odds seem to indicate. Keep in mind that it’s been an absolutely wretched weekend so far for the ACC with Clemson and North Carolina both losing and Miami getting crushed by Bama. Florida State isn’t one of the better ACC teams and hasn’t been in awhile. They’ve got major question marks on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed almost 200 yards rushing per game in 2020. On offense, no starting QB has been announced. FSU beat only two FBS teams last year. Notre Dame was in the CFP. Jack Coan, who transferred over from Wisconsin to be the Fighting Irish’s new QB, is 12-6 SU in his collegiate career as a starter. Notre Dame is by far the more talented of these two teams. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-05-21 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 (RUN LINE) Toronto looks to be rising from the dead. They’d lost 9 of 13 after falling to Detroit 2-1 on 8/27 and their playoff chances certainly looked to be on life support. But they’ve responded by winning six of seven and scoring 21 runs in the last two games. Each of those last two games were against Oakland and now the Jays can sweep on Sunday. They came from way behind on Friday, rallying three different times including a six-run eighth inning and a walk-off Marcus Semien three-run HR. Yesterday saw them jump out to a big 10-3 lead and hold on to win 10-8. Hard not to like this team right now, particularly with Robbie Ray starting. Ray has been great this year as his 14-12 TSR is highly misleading. He’s delivered seven straight quality starts where he’s allowed only nine runs. It’s a 1.72 ERA in that stretch and he has 35 strikeouts vs. only two walks his last three starts. Oakland is fading right now as they’ve lost 6 of 10. Cole Irvin’s last three starts have produced a 5.93 ERA and 2.121 WHIP. The fact he has the same TSR as Ray over his L7 starts is criminal. Let’s ride the hot team in this one with a pitcher who is due for another win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU UCLA has a game under its belt. Chip Kelly probably couldn’t have asked for it to go any better. His Bruins jumped out to a 24-3 lead after the first quarter and never looked back. It ended up 44-10 when all was said and done. The key was a Hawaii implosion. The Warriors unsuccessfully went for it on fourth down on their very first possession. That led to a quick UCLA field goal. Later in the quarter was a fumble deep in Hawaii’s own territory. The Bruins immediately cashed that one in for a TD. In the fourth quarter, with the game already out of reach, the Bruins recovered a blocked punt in the end zone. Don’t expect #16 LSU to be as giving. After winning a National Championship in 2019, the Tigers fell back down to Earth with a 5-5 record last season. Like UCLA, LSU should bounce back from a disappointing season. The defensive line has far more depth. It took almost the whole year, but in the third to last game of last year, Ed Orgeron finally found his QB. It’s Max Johnson, now a sophomore, who led the Tigers to wins in the final two games. The LSU offense put up 37 and 53 points in those two wins. Lost in the final score of last week is that UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed just half of his passes for 130 yards. That won’t come close to cutting it here. LSU was able to escape Irma and practiced in Houston during the week. They’ll be on the West Coast to practice by Friday. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon -20 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon will have to be careful here as they’ve got a date with Ohio State next week. Fresno State played a game last week. They crushed UConn 45-0. But you don’t need us to tell you that Oregon is a big step up from a team that didn’t even play competitive football in 2020. The Ducks are ranked #11 in the country. They’ve won the Pac 12 each of the last two seasons. Fresno State has not faced a ranked opponent since the 2018 season. The Bulldogs will have plenty of difficulty stopping the run this week as Oregon’s RB duo of Verdell and Dye have 4,363 career yards rushing between them. That’s the most returning yards of any backfield in the country. The offensive line that they’ll be running behind is experienced. Oregon has won its last 12 games at Autzen Stadium and 26 home games in a row when facing a non-conference foe. Don’t look past the fact that Fresno State’s QB had to leave last week’s game with cramping in the third quarter. Oregon may have the best edge rusher in the nation in Kayvon Thibodeaux. Not even having to lay three touchdowns at Autzen seems like a steal to us. The Ducks are going to be very good this season and haven’t lost to Fresno State since 1982. Play on OREGON AAA |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State owns the Big Ten in much the same way Clemson owns the Atlantic Coast Conference. Over the last nine seasons, the Buckeyes have won 74 of 79 conference games. They are an obvious favorite to win the league again in 2021. They will be breaking in a new quarterback, CJ Stroud, who replaces Justin Fields. We don’t think that’s going to be a problem. Stroud has Ryan Day calling the plays and the best set of receivers in the country to throw to. You’ve got Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson at running back. The Buckeyes averaged over 500 yards and 40 points per game last season. They’ll probably do it again this year. Making life even scarier for the rest of the Big 10 is the likely improvement of the Buckeyes' defense from last year. They weren’t particularly good against the pass, but the secondary now has more experience. Minnesota only has the seventh best odds of winning the conference and it honestly feels as if the gap between 1 and 2 is larger than between 2 and 7. The Golden Gophers were just 3-4 SU last year and really have no hope of winning this game. The last time they beat Ohio State was in the year 2000 and that’s the only win in the series since 1981. Ohio State has not lost a season opener this century and have covered six of the last eight times they’ve been road favorites. Minnesota is not Alabama, the team the Buckeyes lost to in the CFP Championship Game. They are a Big 10 opponent and that means you should expect a big OSU win. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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09-02-21 | South Florida +19 v. NC State | Top | 0-45 | Loss | -118 | 53 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF South Florida comes into Thursday’s opener against North Carolina State as a big underdog. But we think the Bulls are getting far too many points here. NC State did go 8-4 last year. But they were 4-8 the year before that. They were 8-4 in 2020 despite scoring only 13 more points than they allowed. The Wolfpack were also underdogs in over half of last year’s games. They were favored by double digits only twice and covered just one. We know there’s a decent amount of returning starters for Dave Doeren. However, this is simply not a team we’re interested in laying a lot of points with, especially in the first game. Jeff Scott may not have had a great first year at USF, going just 1-8, but his Bulls covered five times. Two of the losses were within a field goal. The defense will be better this year (how could it not?) and nine transfers were added via the portal. Do we think the Bulls can win this game? Absolutely not. But NC State seems overvalued. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH FLORIDA AAA |
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09-01-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIL +1.5 The Brewers have come in and taken the first two games against the Giants. That’s impressive. San Francisco has the best overall record in the majors as well as the highest win percentage at home. But nobody has more road victories in 2021 than the Brewers, who are 45-23 away from American Family Field. Only two other teams, the Giants being one of them, have 40 road wins this season. We’re not sure if the Brewers will finish the sweep here tonight, but we do like them getting 1.5 via the run line. Milwaukee went off as the favorite for each of the last two days. It says a lot that oddsmakers would favor them in San Francisco. Having Burnes and Woodruff start was a big reason for that. Tonight’s starter is Brett Anderson. The team has lost the previous four times he’s started. So we understand why the line has “flipped” the Giants' way. However, Milwaukee has simply been playing better of late. They have won 7 of 10 whereas the Giants have lost 4 of 5. Kevin Gausman hasn’t lost since July 30th for the Giants but has allowed a total of 10 runs his last three starts. Milwaukee led last night’s game 6-0 as SF was held to two hits for the first five innings. The Brewers’ lineup is back to full strength with Willy Adames back and Christian Yelich on a 10-game hit streak. Five of the Giants' last seven wins have been by one run. Our view is that Anderson pitches better than expected and the Brewers’ lineup continues to swing the bat well. Play on MILWAUKEE +1.5 AAA |
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08-28-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto suffered a crushing one-run defeat at the hands of Detroit Friday night. The 2-1 final was decided by an inside the park HR from Tigers’ pinch-hitter Victor Reyes in home half of the eighth. That it was the first time in the expansion era that a pinch hitter won the game with an inside the park home run is of little matter to the Blue Jays. They now face a 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race and are 1-3 vs. the Tigers this month. They’ve got to turn things around and we like their chances Saturday against Jose Urena. Urena has not pitched in over a month due to a groin injury. When he was pitching, he wasn’t very effective. In 17 starts, he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. He’s 2-8 and winless at home. Urena has pitched worse at Comerica Park than he has on the road, so this really is a golden opportunity for Toronto’s hitters to get back on track. The Tigers will also use Tyler Alexander, but the key is jumping on Urena early. We think Alex Manoah will do his job for Toronto. He’s had his fair share of quality starts recently. He held the White Sox to a run in six innings on Monday. That was the seventh time in eight starts he allowed two runs or less. The Blue Jays are a better ballclub and shouldn’t lose two days in a row. They will win here by multiple runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Betting this number early feels good, but we still feel very confident in Illinois plus the points in the Big 10 opener. Brett Bielema inherited a team that really didn’t do much under Lovie Smith. The Fighting Illini project to be the last place team in the Big 10 West this year, but they should be more competitive under Bielema. They beat Nebraska last season 41-23 as 17-point underdogs. Now the Cornhuskers are facing potential NCAA sanctions before the 2021 season even starts. The threat of sanctions puts already embattled head coach Scott Frost even more squarely on the hot seat. The ‘Huskers were only 3-5 a year ago. Just one win was by more than seven points. The program is 5-11 ATS as a favorite under Frost. Overall they’ve won only 12 of 32 games straight up. So to lay points with them on the conference road, in the first game of the season, seems foolish. QB Martinez has been far too inconsistent throughout his career. The defense gave up 29.4 points/game in 2020. Illinois has 18 starters back and you should look for the defensive front seven to be much improved. Gotta grab the points in this one. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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08-27-21 | Eagles v. Jets -4.5 | Top | 31-31 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYJ The Jets have enjoyed a successful start to the preseason, winning both games and going 2-0 ATS. This makes sense as they have a new head coach in Robert Saleh and thus a reason to try in these games. Then again the Eagles have a new coach in Nick Sirianni and the preseason has gone much differently for them. Philly is 0-2 straight up and ATS. Since a hot start in the first game against Pittsburgh, the Eagles have been outscored 59-3 in the last seven quarters. They were shutout on national television last week, 35-0, by the Patriots. The Jets have beaten the Giants 12-7 and Packers 23-14. Zach Wilson figures to start and get a few series on Friday night. The rookie threw two touchdown passes in the first half last week. He has not turned the ball over or been sacked in the preseason. Nor has the offense gone three and out with him at the helm. The Eagles offense looked so bad last week. How could anyone back them? They were outgained 486-163 by the Patriots and it was 31-14 in first downs. QB Jalen Hurts being a late scratch did not help matters. In addition to playing Wilson for a few series, Saleh is going with his defensive starters and offensive line. That’s good enough for us. The Eagles' backups have looked atrocious in the two games so far. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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08-23-21 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOU -1.5 The last series between Houston and Kansas City produced some very shocking results. It was the Royals that won three of the four games. Houston’s only win came in the last game of the series and they had to battle back from an early 3-0 deficit to win in extra innings. That series was last week, so it’s fresh in the Astros’ players minds. The weekend went better for them. They took two of three from Seattle. The two wins were dominant: 12-3 and 15-1. The loss, which was yesterday, saw them blow an early 2-0 advantage and lose 6-3 in 11 innings. So it was basically the reverse of the previous Kansas City series. We really like Houston to start this series with a win. Greinke has 1.89 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his last three starts. He only gave up one run when faced the Royals last Wednesday. Greinke has 2.68 ERA in six starts vs. KC, whom he pitched for from 2004-10. The Royals followed up the successful series with the Astros by sweeping the Cubs. So they have won six of their last seven games. But there is a 17.5 game difference in the standings between these teams. Rookie Daniel Lynch has a 5.12 ERA. His three road starts have produced a very high WHIP (1.61) as well. Kansas City has just three win streaks longer than three games all year. One was in April. Can’t see Houston losing to them again. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-22-21 | 49ers -5 v. Chargers | Top | 15-10 | Push | 0 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF The key to this one is the 49ers are having a QB competition while the Chargers don’t have much to look forward to under center once Justin Herbert departs. Herbert is better than either of the 49ers options at QB - Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance - but he’s obviously not going to play a ton tonight. Between the two, Garoppolo and Lance should see a majority of the snaps for the Niners. That’s what it’s all about in these preseason games, knowing which QBs will be playing. The Niners lost their first preseason game, 19-16 to Kansas City, which should have them more motivated than Los Angeles who won 13-6 over the Rams last week. The Rams didn’t even bother to play their starters, so it could be a bit of a “shock” for the Chargers who will be facing non-backups for the first time in 2021. Lay the points in this one. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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08-22-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -159 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAA +1.5 (RUN LINE) Cleveland looks to sweep LA Sunday night. They have held the Angels to just two runs in the first two games. After a 9-1 win on Friday, things were a “touch” closer on Saturday afternoon. But the Indians still prevailed by a comfortable 5-1 margin. This is now the first time in August that the Tribe has won two in a row. Both they and the Angels are now one game below .500. It’s difficult to see either team getting back into real playoff contention, but at least today’s winner can exit the weekend at the Mendoza Line. It’s obviously been a tough series for the road team, but we are confident that they can keep the game within a run tonight. Indians starter Cal Quantrill has seen four of his last seven starts decided by a one-run margin. The team has lost three of those four one-run games. They are 3-9 in Quantrill’s last 12 starts with five of the losses coming by a run. Cleveland is just 25-34 after a win this season. But the big key to this game is that it’s being played in Williamsport, PA, not Cleveland. It’s part of the Little League World Series festivities. That’s a break for the Angels, who start a lefty - Jose Suarez - in this spot. Suarez pitched well Monday despite taking a hard-luck 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium. Besides a first inning homer, Suarez allowed only three other hits. He also struck out six in five innings. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-21-21 | Broncos -5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER We took Denver last week and they won 33-6 over a banged up Minnesota team. This week they are in Seattle to play a Seahawks team that doesn’t seem to have much interest in these preseason games. Pete Carroll’s team lost 20-7 to Las Vegas in Week 1. They lost the first down battle 26-9. The most impressive thing about the Broncos’ first preseason game was that they didn’t even play their defensive starters. Vic Fangio has said starters will play this week. The Broncos have a very good defense, in case you forgot. The QB battle between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater ensures that the offense should stay humming for four quarters. We will lay the points in this one. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-21-21 | Braves v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) Yes, we’re gonna do it. At some point this morning, you probably heard that not only has Baltimore lost 16 consecutive games but all 16 losses have been by two or more runs. So that’s an 0-16 run on the run line that they are on as well. They are starting Matt Harvey on Saturday. Certainly things are not looking rosy for the home team in Camden Yards. But we are willing to take a flier and say the Orioles can at least stay within a run today. It’s extremely difficult to keep losing games by multiple runs like this. Harvey ended July with an 18-plus inning scoreless streak, so he’s capable of keeping Atlanta in check. The Braves only scored three times Friday night. They are only 4-12 in interleague play this season after yesterday’s win. Drew Smyly should feel very thankful for his team start record because his own numbers are not that great. He has a 1.54 WHIP on the road. He also has a 5.14 ERA in the last three starts. He’s only gone four innings in four of his last five starts. The Braves have won Smyly’s last five starts. But the last two wins both came by just a run. Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-21-21 | Falcons +5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Falcons sat their starters last week in a 23-3 loss to the Titans. We expect a better showing this week in Miami. AJ McCarron and Felipe Franks, the two quarterbacks, can’t be any worse than they were last week. We will attribute their performance to “being the first game.” Tonight could be our first look at TE Kyle Pitts. The Atlanta defense was good against the Titans. The scoring drives they did allow mostly were a byproduct of short fields. Dorian Etheridge has been a standout. Miami got off to a good start last week, jumping out to a 13-0 lead on Chicago. But then they fell victim to Justin Fields and ended up losing 20-13. There are some question marks with the Dolphins offensive line right now. We just don’t think it’s wise to lay this many points with Miami in a preseason affair. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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08-21-21 | Ottawa +10.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OTTAWA Ottawa is 1-0 and off a bye. The REDBLACKS were 16-12 winners in Week 1 as they downed Edmonton as a seven-point road underdog. They are getting even more points this week from a Saskatchewan team that has roared to a 2-0 start. The Roughriders have played twice at home and beaten British Columbia 33-29 and Hamilton 30-8. They have not opened a season 3-0 since 2013. While the team has won nine in a row in Regina, we don’t see them winning this one by double digits. In last week’s CFL play, the team off a bye (Montreal) won 30-13. You can’t draw too many conclusions about one game, but the bye definitely doesn’t hurt the REDBLACKS here. The Roughriders may lead the CFL in scoring but they are just sixth in total offense. That can’t be sustained. We expect Ottawa to hold them to a season-low in points and stay within the number. Play on OTTAWA AAA |
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08-19-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE -1.5 Milwaukee is simply a better team than St. Louis. They have been all season. So a pair of two-run victories in this series shouldn’t be surprising to you. It was a low-scoring game Tuesday, 2-0, but we said to take the Over last night and thanks to the 10th inning that was a winner. The Brewers won 6-4. For the third and final game of the series, we are going with Milwaukee -1.5 on the run line. They are 74-47 this year, 42-20 on the road. Dominating the rest of the NL Central, they have a 40-19 division record. They are 14-1 in road games when the total is 8.0 to 8.5. Not only do the Brewers have the most road wins in baseball, they are winning on the road by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Brandon Woodruff has a 2.18 ERA plus a 0.91 WHIP, which has him among the very best pitchers in baseball this season. Jon Lester used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that was a long time ago. In 2021, Lester’s ERA is 5.32. He’s struggled since coming over from Washington. The Brewers have won eight of their last nine games. Seven of those wins have been by two or more runs. Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-19-21 | Phillies -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILLIES -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Phillies have lost the first two games of this series with the Diamondbacks. That’s quite embarrassing considering the Diamondbacks have the National League’s worst record. Now that record has gotten somewhat better of late as they’ve won five of their last six games. But you’re still looking at a team that has lost more than two-thirds of its games. It wasn’t too long ago that the Phillies were the hottest team in baseball. They won eight in a row to open August and were in first place in the NL East. But since then they’ve lost six of eight games and now face a 3.5 game deficit in the division as it is the Braves that are surging. The key to today’s selection is that Zack Wheeler is going to be starting for Philadelphia. Wheeler leads all starters with 187 strikeouts and 162 innings pitched. With Jacob deGrom injured, Wheeler could be in line for the Cy Young. An Arizona team that is only 11-28 in day games should be no match for the right-hander, whose WHIP is sub-1.00 for the year. Even though he’s done well since returning from the injured list, Madison Bumgarner is not the same pitcher he was a couple of years ago for the Giants. He gave up a season-high nine hits in his last start. The Phillies will win here by at least two runs. Play on PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-18-21 | A's v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CWS -1.5 (RL) After winning “The Field of Dreams” game in thrilling fashion, the White Sox promptly dropped two actual home games to the Yankees. But they’ve quickly gotten back on track by beating Oakland each of the last two days. We had them Monday and that was a 5-2 victory. It was way easier yesterday as they took the game 9-0. With Lance Lynn set to go tonight, the AL Central leaders should move one step closer to a sweep (this is a four-game series) and we think they win this one by at least two runs. Lynn will handle the A’s lineup. He has a 6-2 record at home, a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He has a 6-1 TSR over his last seven starts, having permitted just one run in five of them. Oakland has dropped three straight. Don’t think Cole Irvin will be able to handle a White Sox lineup that is averaging 5.3 runs in games where they oppose a lefty starter. The White Sox are 41-22 at home this year. When they are -125 to -175 on the money, they are 21-7 in home games. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-17-21 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB -1.5 Tampa Bay won big last night, 9-2, and is very likely to do so again tonight. After dropping two of three to the Twins this past weekend, this series offers a shot at redemption. The Rays have been beating up on the Orioles all year, as you’d expect them to, winning 12 of the 13 season meetings. At this price, we’ve made the decision to lay the -1.5 on the run line. No fear here. Six of the Rays’ previous seven wins over the Orioles have been by more than one run. At the present time, Baltimore is playing as poorly as they have all year, which is really saying something. They are 0-12 their last 12 games and have been outscored 113-36. This isn’t even their longest losing streak this year! They are ill-equipped to handle the Rays lineup, allowing nine or more runs eight of the 13 times they faced them. Tampa has outscored them 103-51 on the year. Not even John Means, Baltimore’s best pitcher, is enough to stem the tide here. Means already lost to the Rays earlier in the month in what turned out to be a 10-6 game. He followed that by serving up three home runs to Detroit. Tampa Bay homered five times yesterday and has scored at least eight runs in 8 of the last 10 games. Should be an easy night for Rasmussen, no matter how long he’s asked to go. Play on TAMPA BAY -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-14-21 | A's -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAK -1.5 Texas did beat Oakland last night, 8-6, but the Rangers are obviously a team that doesn’t do a whole heck of a lot of winning. Their 75 losses are the third most of any team. They’d lost the previous five games with the A’s before winning Friday. So calling for the A’s to bounce back Saturday doesn’t seem like much of a stretch. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5 as this should be a blowout. Texas is 15-25 off a win this year. Oakland is 8-2 in August, a month that has been kind to them in years’ past as well. The last three Augusts have seen the A’s put together a 44-19 record. They’d just won 17-0 in Cleveland on Thursday. There was some rare sloppy play in the field yesterday as the A’s committed three errors. Going into that game, they’d committed the fewest errors in the majors. Errors were what helped Texas score three times in the top of the first. That was more runs than the Rangers had scored in the previous two games combined. They rank last in the American League in runs scored. Jordan Lyles has won just 5 of his 22 starts for Texas this year. The last five have all been losses for the team and in three of the five games, Lyles has allowed six runs. One of those three was against the A’s. Contrast that to James Kaprielian. When the Oakland righty went against Lyles on 8/8, he gave up only two runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-14-21 | Jets -2 v. Giants | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the JETS It’s the annual Jets vs. Giants preseason matchup and both teams are looking to bounce back from terrible 2020 seasons. The Jets were 2-14, the fourth time in five seasons they suffered double digit losses. But this was their most losses in any season since 1996. The Giants have lost 10 or more games in six of the last seven seasons. So the current state of their franchise is no better. Lots of question marks coming into the season for both teams. The #2 pick in the draft, Zach Wilson, is expected to play a full quarter for the Jets. This is Robert Salah’s first game as a NFL coach, so he’ll be looking to make an impact. The Giants won’t play their starting QB Daniel Jones, so that leaves Mike Glennon and Clayton Thorson to split the snaps for Joe Judge. There are no other quarterbacks on the roster. Judge has said he will treat the final preseason game as a “dress rehearsal,” but he doesn’t sound like he cares too much about this one. It’s been a feisty Giants’ camp with multiple fights. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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08-14-21 | Broncos -2 v. Vikings | Top | 33-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER The league’s COVID-19 protocols have wreaked havoc on the Vikings’ QB depth chart as Kirk Cousins, Nate Stanley and Kellen Mond were all forced to quarantine this week, leaving Jake Browning to handle all the first team snaps in practice. The team is also dealing with multiple injuries - on both sides of the ball. The offensive line appears to be a real “work in progress” with both left tackle and right guard being question marks. With all this information coming out of camp, it’s not a shock to see the line move the way it has. You’ve got to imagine that coach Mike Zimmer is going to just want to get this game over with as quickly as possible and not care much about winning or losing. But for Denver, they’ve got a QB battle on their hands between Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. Vic Fangio is far from decided on who will win this job. Lock is going to start Saturday with Bridgewater coming in next (the script will be flipped next week vs. Seattle). Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-13-21 | Titans v. Falcons | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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08-07-21 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU -1.5 The Astros lost to the Twins last night, 5-4. The game went 11 innings and saw your AL West leaders blow a 3-0 lead. They are too good to let that happen again, so we will take them here, not just to win but to win by two or more runs. The run line looks like a great value in this situation as Houston is on a three-game losing streak. There have been only three times this season where the Astros have had a losing streak of more than three games. This is the first three-game losing streak since prior to the All Star Break. Luis Garcia has a 2.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home. He can easily handle this Twins lineup. We won’t say the same for Twins starter Michael Pineda and the Astros lineup though. In his last seven starts, Pineda has a 5.67 ERA and .892 OPS allowed. Houston has scored more runs than every other team in 2021. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-06-21 | Rangers v. A's -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAK -1.5 (RUN LINE) Oakland is 61-48 on the season. If the regular season ended today, they’d be the second Wild Card team in the American League. They trail Houston by four games in the West Division, so that’s also still in play. After coming from behind to stun San Diego on Wednesday, the A’s have won five of their last seven games. They have a real nice scheduling advantage for today’s game vs. Texas. Because it was a short two-game interleague series vs. San Diego, the A’s had both Monday and Thursday off. The Rangers have not had an off-day in over a week. They lost 5-0 yesterday afternoon to the Angels, at home, a game where we had the Under. As we talked about, this team just can’t hit. They are last or second to last in each of the four key offensive categories. The last week has seen them hit .207. Mike Foltynewicz being the starter Friday makes things even less promising. He is 2-10 with a 6.00 ERA. Chris Bassitt is a much better option for Oakland. He is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA. Against Texas, Bassitt is 3-0. He’s allowed two runs and 12 hits in 21 innings. It’s strange that the A’s are 5-5 head to head vs. the Rangers. But they should have no problem winning this game by multiple runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | Top | 3-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PIT The Steelers and Cowboys open the preseason Thursday night in Canton. Both teams are just looking to stay healthy and evaluate some backups in this one. You won’t be seeing either Dak Prescott or Ben Roethlisberger taking any snaps tonight. Much of the offensive firepower will spend the game on the sidelines. But we like the Steelers QB rotation of Rudolph, Dobbs and Haskins a lot better than what the Cowboys have (Rush, Gilbert, DiNucci). Also watch out for rookie running back Najee Harris. He’s had a good camp and does figure to get a decent amount of time on the field tonight. Starters will also be limited on the defensive side of the ball, but we know Pittsburgh is better there. Dallas always seems to be overrated every year, so we won’t hesitate to fade them in the first game of the season. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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08-05-21 | Mariners v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYY -1.5 There are a lot of big favorites on tonight’s MLB card. You might be caught off guard by the fact that the Yankees are one of them. They are facing a Seattle team that has a very similar record. But the Mariners are frauds and we really like this Nestor Cortes. The Yankees margin of victory from the past two days is 19 runs. Now we know those wins came against Baltimore. But Seattle isn’t a team that deserves to be over .500. They’ve allowed 49 more runs than they have scored this season. The Mariners’ last three losses have all been by one run, but tonight is a situation where they figure to get blown out. Cortes, who is the Yankees starter for tonight, is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. He was originally going to start Tuesday’s game vs. the Orioles, but the team opted to go with Luis Gill and still won 13-1. Now Cortes has had more than a full week of rest in between starts. The Yankees are two games back of the Wild Card and one game in front of the Mariners. So this series is pretty huge. The degree to which they are favored is fairly telling. We believe they’ll win this game by two or more runs, making the run line a great option. Tyler Anderson has a 3-7 team start record on the road for Seattle. His last two starts have been losses at Arizona and Texas, two of the worst teams in baseball. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-03-21 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CHICAGO -1.5 Chicago is one of the top teams in the American League and all of MLB. But last week they went to Kansas City and lost three of four. That shouldn’t happen when you’re a first place team facing a team fighting to get out of last place. But now the White Sox get to be the hosts and they should be rather rude. The Sox road record isn’t very good, but at home they are 37-18. That’s more home victories than every other team. We will lay the -1.5 just to play them Tuesday in what should be an easy series-opening victory. The Royals got swept this past weekend. They scored only five runs at Toronto and at one point were blanked for 17 consecutive innings. The Royals have lost two-thirds of their road games and when on a losing streak of three or more games, things get really bad. Off three or more straight losses, they are 5-21 in 2021. With an 8.19 road ERA, Kris Bubic gives us even less confidence in KC than usual today. Dylan Cease has a 7-3 home team start record for the White Sox. It’s just hard to see the home side not rolling in this one. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-03-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY -1.5 Gerrit Cole was supposed to start on Tuesday for the Yankees. But he has COVID-19 and thus he’s going to miss some time. That wasn’t the only bad news for the Yankees yesterday. They also lost 7-1 to the Orioles. That simply can’t happen if they hope to be a player in this Wild Card race. New York is three games back of Oakland right now and had won five of six prior to Monday’s loss. The team did not “stand pat” at the deadline, adding both Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo to a lineup that has put up the second fewest number of runs in the American League. Unfortunately, the Yankees decided to go 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position Monday night. Nestor Cortes Jr will be the one starting in place of Cole. If you’re not familiar with him, he’s made three starts and the team has won all of them. Over 13 innings, Cortes has permitted just two runs and seven hits. Baltimore is 7-3 its last 10 games, but still buried in last place in the division with a 38-67 record. They are a horrible road team that has gone 3-13 its last 16 games at Yankees Stadium. Alexander Wells will start this game for them. In two previous appearances, Wells has a 5.91 ERA. The idea of the Orioles winning two straight games seems ludicrous, so we’ll lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHX The NBA Finals have taken a dire turn for Phoenix. Once up 2-0, they are now down 3-2. This would be their first three-game losing skid since January, which is also the only other one (three-game skid) that they’ve been on all season. It’s a must-win in Game 6 at Milwaukee and we will be grabbing the points. For starters, the Suns are 14-5 ATS coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. They were four-point favorites back in Game Five. This is just the second time in the postseason that the Suns have been trailing in the series. The Bucks are 6-17 ATS when on a three-game win streak and 0-3 ATS off a straight up win as an underdog. Phoenix has shot 50% from the field in this series, which is pretty impressive. It also makes the series deficit that more shocking. In the last two games, the Suns have shot 53%. They were 68.4% from three in the last game. Devin Booker, off two straight 40+ point games, should get more help from teammates tonight. For Milwaukee, Middleton and Holiday will probably not combine for 56 points again (that’s what they went for in Game Five). Facing elimination for the first time, you know Phoenix is going to fight to the end. The last two losses were by just 10 total points. The underdog will cover in this one. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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07-19-21 | Twins v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) Fresh off a couple wins over Houston, the White Sox get to stay home to start the week. They’ll play two (doubleheader) against Minnesota on Monday with Lance Lynn starting Game 1. We look for this one to quickly turn into a blowout. The Twins have not been good against the White Sox so far this season. They are 2-10 in head to head matchups, which includes an 0-6 record at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins’ weekend saw them get swept in Detroit. While Chicago is a top five team in baseball by any objective measure, Minnesota has been among the most underachieving teams of 2021. They are -24.9 units, making them the second worst team to bet on (only Arizona is worse). Back to Lynn, he’s having an exemplary year with a 1.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s pitched against the Twins three times and has given up only four runs and 11 hits in 17 innings. The last time he faced them was 12 days ago and that ended up being an easy 6-1 victory. The Twins starter for Game 1 is Michael Pineda. The team has lost each of his last four starts, getting outscored 35-12 in the process. We are so confident in this one that we are willing to lay the -1.5 (run line). Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX An improbable Game 4 victory saw the Bucks take nearly 20 more shots from the field. That was the key as they were outshot 51.3% to 40.2%, but still won 109-103. Not only did they win, they covered the 4.5-point spread as well. But now it's back to Phoenix. The home team is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in this series and we believe that trend is going to continue in Game 5 Saturday night. The Suns should have won Game 4. Devin Booker was on fire the entire game, but was eventually cooled off by foul trouble. We don’t see a player of Booker’s caliber getting into foul trouble at home. Chris Paul should play better in Game 5. He had just 10 points and five turnovers in Game 4. Kris Middleton went for 40 for the Bucks, but as we’ve seen throughout the playoffs, he’s better at home. The Suns made only 16 of 54 three-point attempts in the two games at Milwaukee. They made 20 threes in Game 2, the last time here. Milwaukee has not won or even covered a game in Phoenix the last three seasons. The Bucks really aren’t a great road team (just 25-22 SU) and they are just 3-7 ATS as underdogs this year. This is only the second time in the entire playoff run that the Suns have lost two in a row. Their one and only three game losing streak this season occurred back in January. We can’t see them losing a third straight game here. Lay the number. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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07-16-21 | Indians v. A's -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) It will be interesting to see how Cleveland approaches the second half. Eight games back of the White Sox, they are not likely to win the AL Central. They are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. Injuries have taken their toll on the Indians, particularly their starting rotation. They are not a team looking to spend money, so we’d be shocked if they were “buyers” before the trade deadline. It might behoove them to be sellers and build for the future. The Indians are big underdogs Friday in Oakland as they face Chris Bassitt, who is 10-2 in his 19 starts (14-5 TSR). The A’s are also a second place team, but in a better position than Cleveland. They have seven more wins and a much better run differential as well. We expect the home team to win tonight by two runs or more. Eli Morgan has made just five starts for Cleveland. The last one came on July 3rd. He has an 8.43 ERA this year. Bassitt has allowed no more than two runs in 14 of his last 17 starts. The Indians have lost eight straight games to teams with winning records. They are 1-7 their last eight games here in Oakland. The A’s are an amazing 49-13 their last 62 games vs. the AL Central. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks’ backs are against the wall here as they are down 0-2 in the best of seven series. But they now get to be the home team. This is Milwaukee’s first time hosting an NBA Finals game since 1974! So expect a “rocking atmosphere” with Giannis and company delivering a win. Antetokounmpo did all he could in Game 2 with 42 points. Obviously he’s not bothered by the injury. He needs more help from his teammates and should get it at home. As we’ve been saying throughout the Bucks playoff run, both Middleton and Holiday always seem to shoot better at home. They were a combined 12 for 37 in Game 2, so improvement from them is a virtual guarantee. Phoenix also won’t make 20 three pointers again as they did in the last game. Dario Sarkic has been lost for the remainder of the series and Torrey Craig, a key bench player for the Suns, got injured in the second half of Game 2. Milwaukee obviously cannot afford to lose here as they would be in an 0-3 hole that no NBA team has ever gotten out of. Fortunate for them is they are 7-1 straight up and against the spread in home playoff games. The Bucks may be 0-5 SU and ATS the last five meetings with the Suns, but four of the games were in Phoenix. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) Turns out we were wrong to count out the Canadiens in Game 4 as they stayed alive by winning in overtime, 3-2. We all know the trend with Tampa Bay -- they are 14-0 SU the last two postseasons after a loss. Plus they are now back at home, so it’s no shock that they are heavily favored to end the series tonight. But we’ll grab the +1.5 with the Habs on the puck line as this one shouldn’t get out of hand. They outshot TB in two of the four games and in the series. What’s interesting is they were outshot in Game 4 34-21. But the two previous games saw them end up with a +25 edge in shots on goal. It was nice to see goalie Carey Price have a bounce back game Monday night. You’ve gotta figure he’ll be on the top of his game again tonight. Price still owns a .922 save percentage in the playoffs. The Lightning were an uncharacteristic 0 for 6 on the power play in the last game, but we don’t see Montreal giving them so many chances again. Line changes worked for Montreal in Game 4, so expect the same lineup. Even though everyone is counting them out, don’t be surprised if the Habs win again tonight. We don’t foresee an outcome worse than a one-goal defeat here. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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07-04-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF -1.5 Arizona did win a game in this series (Thursday) but wasted little time in reverting back to their “normal ways” by losing each of the last two days. It was a non-competitive affair on Friday (Giants won 11-4) before a 6-5 final last night. The Giants actually needed a late 2-run homer from pinch-hitter Austin Slater to win the game. But while this series has been a bit more competitive than the Giants expected, the season as a whole paints a picture where you’ll want to be on them tonight. They are 8-1 vs. the Diamondbacks in 2021 and 16-3 against them the last three years. Arizona has the worst record in baseball and a loss tonight would leave them 40 games below .500. They’ve lost a staggering 49 of their last 57 games! We all know about the struggles on the road, but they are also just 5-21 their last 26 home games. Has Caleb Smith (Sunday’s scheduled starter) pitched well for them of late? Yes he has. But he’s received little to no run support. The Giants are in first place with a 52-30 record, which has them 30.5 games up on Arizona! They’ve given up 177 fewer runs! Part of the reason for that is Anthony DeSclafani, who is 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA. Each of his last five starts, DeSclafani has allowed three runs or less. He’s allowed only seven runs total (and 19 hits) in 32 innings of work. This seems to be a “no-brainer” and we will even lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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07-02-21 | Brewers v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PIT +1.5 Milwaukee has really taken control of the Central, thanks to a nine-game win streak. It also helps that the Cubs have lost six in a row. After sweeping the Cubs over the weekend and outscoring them 31-12, the Brewers beat the Pirates 7-2 yesterday. That was their fourth straight win over the Bucs dating back to a sweep in Milwaukee last month. The Pirates are obviously having a terrible year. Yesterday was their fourth loss in a row. They’ve scored only four runs in the four games. But don’t be surprised to see them “shock the world” on Friday. Given all the above info, this line is a bit of a shock. We’ve got reason to be a little apprehensive, so that’s why we’re going with the run line. Pittsburgh starter Brubaker is pretty good though and is capable of pitching his team to the win today. Brubaker has a 0.921 WHIP at home this year and a 0.962 WHIP in his last three starts overall. The fact his TSR is 0-3 in those last three starts while Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser has a 3-0 TSR his last three starts (despite a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) seems unjust. Houser is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Pittsburgh, five of those being starts. Brubaker beat Houser earlier in the year when he allowed just one run in six innings. Play PITTSBURGH +1.5 AAA |
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07-01-21 | Hawks +2 v. Bucks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATL The insane injury bug that has seemingly bitten every single team in these playoffs has struck again, this time claiming Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks. Milwaukee had been the one team to stay pretty much injury free this postseason, but now things have really gone sideways for them. They were terrible in Game 4, especially after Antetokounmpo went down. They were outscored by 14 after the injury and ended up losing 110-88. With Antetokounmpo doubtful for Game 5 and his entire future status in doubt, there is simply no way we could take the Bucks in this spot. Atlanta has proven they can win without Trae Young, doing so by 22 in the last game. Young is more likely to play tonight than Antetokounmpo and his return would be a real nice luxury to have. The Hawks are 3-0 SU and ATS this season off a game where they allowed 90 or less points. Lou Williams was tremendous starting in place of Young as he scored 21 points and had eight assists in Game 4. The Hawks are also 15-5-1 ATS off their last 21 double digit wins. Getting points against an Antetokounmpo-less Bucks team seems like a steal, even if Young does not play. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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07-01-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOR -1.5 These teams have similar records, but we believe Toronto to be far superior. Certainly, the oddsmakers seem to be in agreement with us, given how the home team has been priced in this series. The Blue Jays have closed north of -200 on the money line each of the last two days. Now they did lose yesterday, 9-7 in 10 innings. Somehow Seattle has managed to go 9-1 in extra inning games this year. That partly explains how they have one more win than the Blue Jays, despite a vastly inferior run differential. The Mariners have played 81 games so far. They’ve been outscored by 47 runs. Toronto has played 78 games. They’ve outscored their opponents by 69 runs. That’s quite the massive difference in run differential. So we’ve got no problem laying the -1.5 on the run line this afternoon. Remember that Toronto won the first game of the series, 9-3. Whether it’s been Florida or NY, the Blue Jays have averaged 5.8 runs/game at home. Seattle is actually being outscored by 1.3 runs/game on the road. We must concede that Kikuchi has pitched well recently for the Mariners. But he does have 10 walks in his last three starts. Ryu has very similar numbers for Toronto, who are also 19-8 in day games. Play TORONTO -1.5 AAA |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHX The Suns have not lost two in a row since the Lakers series. So coming off the loss in Game 5, we’ll take them here in their second attempt to close out the Clippers. Digging themselves into a massive early hole (trailed 20-5 at the outset) did Phoenix no favors Monday night. That poor start basically decided the game. It was the first time in the series that the Suns trailed at the half. The first positive bit of news to report is that they are 7-3 against the spread this season when off a double digit loss. They are 19-7 ATS off a loss of any kind. It is unlikely that Chris Paul and Jae Crowder will combine to go 0 for 10 from behind the three point line again. That’s what they did in Game 5. Similarly, the Clippers probably won’t shoot 54.8% again like they did in Game 5. Paul George went for 41 points, his playoff high. The Clippers are definitely more banged up at this point of the series with Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and now Ivica Zubac all injured. LA is 3-6 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. Our call is that the Suns end the Western Conference Finals tonight. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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06-30-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MTL +1.5 Even though they lost Game 1 5-1, Montreal cannot be counted out. For starters, the loser of Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals has come back to win the series each of the past three seasons. The Habs know a thing or two about bouncing back from a loss this postseason as well. They lost Game 1 of the semis to Vegas in pretty ugly fashion (lost 4-1), only to storm back and win four of the next five games. Not since losing three in a row to the Maple Leafs back in Round 1 have the Habs suffered consecutive defeats in the playoffs. They are 11-3 since falling behind the Leafs three games to one and the two previous times they’ve had to respond from a loss, they’ve done so on the road, which is the case here. We’ll grab the puck line as an acknowledgement that the Lightning could very well win again, but not by more than one goal. Tampa’s top line greatly outplayed Montreal’s in Game 1. The first three goals that the Canadiens allowed in Game 1 were all off turnovers. So that’s something that can be fixed. Remember it was a 2-1 game heading into the third period. You have to figure Montreal is going to get more shots on goal tonight than the 19 they had in Game 1. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Atlanta is now 3-0 in Game 1’s during this playoff run. All three wins have come as underdogs. They were +8 for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals here in Milwaukee, a game they came from behind to win 116-113. Trae Young rebounded nicely from a dismal Game 7 against the 76ers. He had 48 points Wednesday night. The Hawks have been underdogs in nine straight games. Tonight will make it 10. They are an impressive 6-3 SU those past nine games, but have never won three straight games, which is what they are looking to do this evening. But we can’t see the Bucks losing both home games to open the series. So we’ll lay the points. Even though the Hawks have won five of their last six on the road, they are still just a .500 team (for the year) away from home. The Bucks are 31-11 SU at home and were 5-0 in the playoffs before dropping Game 1. They were also on a 13-game win streak at home going back to the regular season. Young can’t score 48 in every game and the injury to Bogdan Bogdanovic seems significant as he went just 1 for 6 in Game 1. Bogdanovic, not Young, has been the team’s best 3-point shooter this season. Expect the Bucks to shoot way better from three in this game (they were just 8 of 36 in Game 1), especially Kris Middleton (who was 0 for 9). Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-24-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 After being swept down in San Diego, the Dodgers look to regroup this weekend. It’ll be the Cubs paying them a visit and this is a revenge series for the home team who got swept at Wrigley Field early in May. We look for this series to go a whole lot differently. Or at least today’s game where Walker Buehler will pitch for Los Angeles. Buehler has a 10-4 team start record this year, but has not dropped a decision. His record is 7-0 and he’s coming off a performance where he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and had a season-high 11 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 his past three starts with an ERA of 0.89 and a WHIP of 0.74. When the no-hitter was finally broken up by Arizona last Saturday, Buehler had not allowed any runs in his previous 20 innings of work. The Cubs have lost six of nine and before winning 7-1 against Cleveland Tuesday, they had not topped three runs in any of those contests. They really struggle at the plate on the road (.218 average) and we don’t see Davies helping out too much as he has a 1.77 WHIP in seven road starts. The Dodgers are 4-1 this year following three straight losses. Since the money line is pretty high, you’ll want to play the run line here as we think the home team wins this one pretty easily. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 AAA |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS Both Games 1 and 2 were tightly contested and the Suns are up 2-0 heading back to LA. We are also 2-0 in the series. Phoenix was the play for Game 1 and they covered the spread thanks to a pair of late Devin Booker free throws. We took the Clippers in Game 2 and that probably should have been an outright win, but we’ll take the cover. The finish to Game 2 was wild with the Clippers allowing a game-winning alley-oop in the final second. For the third straight series, they are down 0-2. In the first round, they won Game 3 in Dallas 118-108. In the second round, they won Game 3 at home, 132-106 over Utah. Going back to Game 7 of the first round, they’ve won four straight at home - all by double digits. The season is basically on the line tonight. Chris Paul may be back for the Suns, which is why the line has shifted towards the Suns after initially flipping to the Clippers -1. But Paul will have rust to shake off and bettors are overreacting to the news. Reggie Jackson has stepped up for the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard out as he’s averaging 23 points over the last four games. To us, this is a very obvious bounce back situation as the Clippers probably should have won Game 2. The Clippers are 6-2 ATS when trailing in the series during these playoffs. Phoenix is 1-9 ATS its last 10 visits to the Staples Center to face the Clippers. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 7* on the ISLANDERS +1.5 Tampa Bay leads this series 3-2 after humiliating the Islanders 8-0 in Game 5. That was the most lopsided NHL Playoff game in 20 years. It was the biggest margin of victory in playoff history for the Lightning and the worst margin of defeat in Islanders’ playoff history (and they’ve been around for awhile). We’re proud to say we took the Lightning in that 8-0 win. The world now figures to follow suit for Game 6. But we’re “jumping ship” as the Isles look to not only keep their season alive in what could be the final game ever played at Nassau Coliseum. Even if they win here, there’s no guarantee the Isles will play another game here as they’d also have to win Game 7 in Tampa Bay. Coach Barry Trotz guaranteed a much better effort on Long Island. "You'll get our best," Trotz said. "Whatever we've got left, you're going to get our best [Wednesday]." With the season and their building on the line, we don’t see the home team “rolling over” tonight. If they do lose, it won’t be by more than one goal. This team has won 37 of its previous 55 home games (26-10 this year). They have yet to lose two in a row by more than a goal in this postseason. Game 5 was not an accurate picture of this team. Play on NY ISLANDERS AAA |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS We’re going with the Clippers plus the points in Game 2. We laid the points with the Suns in Game 1. They shot 55% from the field and were led by Devin Booker’s 40 points. Booker also had a triple double. Booker and his teammates aren’t likely to be that prolific for a second straight game. Considering that the Clippers were never out of Game 1, we give them a solid shot at pulling the upset here even as they continue to play without Kawhi Leonard. They defeated the Jazz twice without Leonard. Phoenix doesn’t have Chris Paul. The Clippers are 5-2 ATS when trailing in these series during these playoffs. Game 1 was tied going into the fourth quarter. Factoring in the likely decline in shooting by Phoenix, the Clippers should easily cover this spread. The Suns haven’t lost since Game 3 of the first round and can’t go on winning “forever.” Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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06-20-21 | Clippers v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX So it is the Clippers vs. the Suns in the Western Conference Finals. But no Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul in Game 1. This is the Clippers’ 1st ever Conference Finals appearance. It’s the first for the Suns since 2010 and they haven’t been in the NBA Finals since 1993. So we’re guaranteed some “new blood” out of the Western Conference this year. We were shocked that the Clippers beat the Jazz two straight times without Leonard. They trailed by 25 in the third quarter Friday. While LA got just one day off between series, Phoenix hasn’t played in a week. The Suns looked very impressive in sweeping Denver, winning all four games comfortably. They’ve won and covered seven in a row. It’s a shame that Paul is out, but we believe the Suns still get it done at home in Game 1. The Clippers lost the first two games of both prior series. We don’t see them continuing to post the best offensive efficiency rating in the playoffs. That’s because Phoenix allowed only 100.8 points/game in the first two rounds. The Clippers don’t have Serge Ibaka either and are 3-7-1 ATS off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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06-19-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 There’s really no price that could discourage us from selecting the Dodgers tonight in Arizona. This is truly about as large a mismatch as it gets in this sport. The Dodgers, 3-0 winners on Friday, do not have the best won-loss record in the National League, or even their own division. But they are #1 in the NL in run differential (+96). Arizona is hideous. They have lost 15 in a row and 32 of their last 37 games. In addition to setting a new record for futility on the road (23 straight losses), the team has not won at home since June 1st. At 20-51, the Diamondbacks have the worst record in baseball. Matt Peacock is not the man for the task at hand Saturday night. He is 0-3 over his last three starts with a 7.14 ERA and 2.47 WHIP. He has more walks than strikeouts in those three starts and just gave up 10 hits in 5 innings the last time he pitched. The Dodgers will have Walker Buehler on the mound and he hasn’t allowed a single run in his last two starts. He’s delivered six straight quality starts and the first of those six came against Arizona. Buehler held the D’backs to one hit over seven innings back on May 17th. LA won the game 3-1. They’ll likely win by an even larger margin tonight as 2+ runs will be the difference. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN The home team has won all six games in this series. We expect the trend to continue in Game 7. That means Brooklyn advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. Even having to go without Kyrie Irving, the Nets should put up a lot of points at home. The three games at Milwaukee have seen them average only 89.3 points/game. But at home they’ve averaged 118.0 and one of those was without Irving and also James Harden making just 1 of 10 field goal attempts. We trust Kevin Durant to lead the way Saturday. He is averaging 33.3 points/game in the series. Harden shot a lot better in Game 6 and finished with 16 points. He’s played 40+ minutes in both games since returning and we’re gonna predict a series high in points of Harden here in Game 7. On the flip side, look for Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton’s numbers to go down. Middleton had a game-high 38 in Game 6. He is averaging almost 31 points in the three games in Milwaukee. But that average goes down to 18.3 in Brooklyn. That’s a big difference. The Bucks crunch time play has not impressed us. They were lucky to get out to a big early lead in the last game. Brooklyn has the best player (Durant) and is at home. The Bucks’ road record is just 22-19 SU and they are 1-5 ATS as underdogs this season. If you include the regular season, the home team is 9-0 in head to head meetings between these teams in 2020-21. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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06-18-21 | Jazz -2 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -101 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah thought they had the Clippers right where they wanted them heading into Game 5. The announcement that Kawhi Leonard would miss Game 5 led to the line skyrocketing. But the Clippers pulled the 119-111 upset and are now a game away from advancing to their first ever Western Conference Finals. Last year they were in this same position but famously dropped three straight to the Denver Nuggets. They only get two shots this time, after starting down 0-2 in the series. We don’t like their chances of getting it done in Game 6. Leonard is still expected to be out. Same with Serge Ibaka. This is the first three-game losing streak of the season for Utah, who had the NBA’s best regular season record. So history favors them getting it done. We realize the same could have been said for Game 5 and that was at home. But can you trust Paul George to score 37 points again? We don’t. The Jazz scored 65 first half points on Wednesday and six players finished in double figures. The Donovan Mitchell ankle injury remains a concern, but at least he’s gonna play (unlike Leonard). The Clippers are just 2-5 SU/ATS when leading a playoff series the last three years. It was very logical to “count them out” going into the last game. Utah won’t make the same mistake twice. Play on UTAH AAA |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) Montreal again proved the doubters wrong by winning Game 2, 3-2. It was yet another game where the Habs never trailed. That’s been the case in eight of their last nine games, Game 1 vs. Vegas being the outlier. In Game 2, Montreal got off to a 3-0 lead and never looked back. It wasn’t until late in the third period that Vegas was able to get back with a goal. We think the Canadiens will, at the very worst, be able to stay within a goal of the Golden Knights in Game 3. The series is now in Montreal, making this the first time Vegas (or any U.S. team) has crossed the border into Canada in over a year. Attendance won’t be anywhere near full capacity, but it’s still an advantage to be at home. Montreal hasn’t lost on home ice since 5/25 and they’ve been beaten by more than one goal in only one home game during these playoffs. Vegas has just one win in its last four playoff road games, that being in Colorado where they rallied from an early 0-2 hole to win by one goal (3-2). Vegas has opened the scoring in just 5 of its 15 playoff games. When you start from behind, it’s tough to win by more than a goal. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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06-17-21 | Tigers v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAA -1.5 With Ohtani on the mound, the Angels should easily dominate the Tigers in Thursday’s series opener. Detroit is in off a sweep of the Royals. But they are still 10 games below .500 and have been outscored by 62 runs over the course of their first 68 games. They did have a pair of four-game win streaks last month, but that’s as long a win streak as this team has had in 2021. So odds are that they are going to go down tonight. The Angels just got swept out in Oakland, but had won six in a row before that. Their last home series saw them sweep the Royals. Those three wins were by a total of 17 runs. Ohtani has a 1.85 ERA in his five home starts, so he should keep the Tigers at bay. Anthony Rendon is expected to return to the Angels’ lineup tonight, giving the offense a boost. This is the major league debut for Matt Manning of Detroit. He didn’t pitch all that well down in Triple-A (8.07 ERA with 11 home runs allowed), so why trust him here? This will be a multi-run win by the home team. Play on LA ANGELS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks -5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks seemed to have all the momentum heading into Game 5. They’d won the previous two games, plus James Harden and Kyrie Irving were both hurt for Brooklyn. Harden wound up suiting up Tuesday, but he did not play well (shot 1 of 10) and Milwaukee quickly jumped out to a 29-15 lead after one quarter of play. Their lead was 16 midway through the third, which is when Kevin Durant took over. Durant turned in a game for the ages with 49-17-10. But we don’t see him doing that again in Game 6 at Milwaukee. The Nets have lost all four games in Milwaukee this season, Irving is still out and Harden clearly isn’t 100 percent. So lay the points with the home team facing elimination. The Nets scored only 83 and 96 points in Games 3 and 4 here in Milwaukee. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS For the second series in a row, the Clippers find themselves down 0-2. There is a difference this time though. In the first round versus Dallas, those first two losses both came at home. The first two losses of the second round were both in Salt Lake City. So now, instead of having to go on the road to even things up, the Clippers can do so at home. They did lose the first three home games to Dallas, but won Game 7 here in Staples Center by a score of 126-111. We expect Kawhi Leonard to play better tonight than he did in Games 1 and 2 when he averaged just 22 points. Game 2 was a bit of a disaster as LA gave up 66 points in the first half and was down by as many as 21. But they actually rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter. We certainly don’t see them falling behind that big in Game 3. In fact, they figure to come out quite strong given the series deficit that they are facing. Utah isn’t going to come close to matching its shooting from Game 2 (55.3 FG%). The Jazz were 20 of 39 on three-point attempts in that last game as well. The Clippers were the top three point shooting team in the NBA this year, so look for them to turn the tables Saturday. Utah has not covered any of the last four times they’ve been underdogs. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -218 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 6* on COLORADO +1.5 Through the first six games of these playoffs, Colorado looked totally invincible. They were 6-0 with a +20 goal differential (30-10) and widely considered the favorite to win the Stanley Cup. Then the next three games happened. Vegas has beaten them three straight times, including a come from behind effort in Game 5 that went to overtime. Now the Avalanche aren’t the favorites to win the Cup; they are just trying to stay alive. Even though taking the puck line requires laying a lot of juice, we believe it’s worth it. This is only the second three-game losing streak for the Avs in 2020-21. There has never been a four-game losing streak. While we’re not confident enough to “pull the trigger” on the money line, we just don’t see any way that Colorado loses here by more than one goal. Two of the three losses in this series have been by one goal. They beat Vegas 7-1 in Game 1! They very much COULD win. But we just like the idea of them only having to stay tied at the end of regulation. Play on COLORADO +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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06-08-21 | Clippers +4 v. Jazz | Top | 109-112 | Win | 101 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 8* on LAC The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. Most will view this as a disadvantage, having to start a new series basically 48 hours after winning a Game 7. But we like the Clippers as underdogs in Game 1 at Utah. Getting points, LA is 7-4 ATS this season and they’ve taken the game outright six times. We played against Utah in Game 1 of the opening round. That was the only game of the Memphis series they lost. Instead of focusing on how little time the Clippers had off between the two series, maybe we should focus more on how much time the Jazz have had off. They are 2-8 ATS since 2018-19 when having at least three days off between games. They are 0-2 ATS this season in that scenario with Game 1 vs. Memphis being the most recent instance. Mike Conley may be unavailable tonight and that would be a major blow for the home team. The two best players in this series (Leonard, George) will both be wearing road colors tonight. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -3 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA Joel Embiid’s Game 1 status is up in the air, but remember that the Sixers won the series clincher against Washington without him. This line feels awfully short for a top seed playing at home. We’d say the line should be -3 before factoring in any kind of home court advantage. When these teams met three times in the regular season, the home team won all three times. Philadelphia hosted twice and won by 44 and 22. Those wins came in April too. The significance of that is that it was post-coaching change for Atlanta, which is when they got a lot better. The Hawks have lost only 11 games since Nate McMillan took over, but two of those were to the Sixers. Philadelphia scored 120 or more points in all four of its first round wins and regardless of whether Embiid plays today or not, they will be much more difficult to defend than the Knicks were (for Atlanta) in Round 1. Speaking of defending, the Sixers gave up the second fewest number of points per possession in the league during the regular season. Atlanta has traditionally struggled in this round, going 6-17-1 ATS its last 24 games. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets -4 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Look for Brooklyn to win Game 1 comfortably. Milwaukee is an underdog, which is rare, but it hasn’t been a good situation for them - at all. 0-4 this season - straight up and ATS - and 0-8 SU and ATS the last eight times. They’ve yet to face the Nets with Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving all suited up. We think the Bucks stock may be a bit too high after it took the minimum four games to beat the Heat in the first round. It’s not as if the Nets had much difficulty ousting Boston either. They did lose once, but that took a superhuman 50-point effort from Jayson Tatum. All four Nets wins in the first round were by double digits. They are the only team that averaged more points per game than Milwaukee in the regular season. Again, they did so despite the three All Stars not playing much together. Not surprising, Brooklyn’s scoring increased against Boston to 123.4 points/game. And it should be noted the Celtics are a pretty decent defensive team. Milwaukee is 6-16 ATS in 2020-21 following a win streak of three or more. A full week off for the Bucks is not ideal when having to deal with the Nets’ tempo. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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06-05-21 | Bruins v. Islanders +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 6* on the ISLANDERS +1.5 The Islanders were able to win one in Boston, but immediately gave the home ice advantage right back to the Bruins by losing 2-1 in Game 3. It was a game that went into overtime. The Islanders have had a tremendous home ice edge all season, so we can’t see them losing two in a row. Still, just to be careful, we’ll go with the puck line (+1.5). This is a team that has suffered only five home losses in regulation all season. That’s significant because all we need is for this game to be tied at the end of regulation and it’s a guaranteed winner due to the puck line. Both times New York has been trailing in the series during these playoffs, they have won the next game. Those two wins were Game 2 in Boston and then Game 4 vs. Pittsburgh, which was here in Uniondale. The Bruins dropped all four regular season games here. The Islanders scored at least four goals in each of their three home games in the first round. So they should find the back of the net more tonight. At no point in this season have the Islanders dropped two straight home games in regulation. Play on NY ISLANDERS +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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06-05-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -175 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON +1.5 (RUN LINE) The Nationals captured last night’s series opener 2-1. Because of that, we like them +1.5 (run line) on Saturday. The Phillies’ 17-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday is looking like a total outlier as the club has scored no more than three runs in any other of its last eight games. Washington has won three of its last four ball games, all of them coming on the division road. Joe Ross starts on Saturday. He gave up only three hits in his last start and while it ended up being a losing effort, it was the sixth time in seven starts where Ross allowed five hits or less. Ross is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA all-time vs. the Phillies, who had just six hits in last night’s game. With the exception of yesterday, all the recent putrid offensive efforts by Philadelphia had been on the road. But they only average 4.2 runs/game at home. Spencer Howard is starting for them today and has had issues with a drop in velocity through the first three outings of 2021. Howard hasn’t gone more than four innings yet and the Phillies bullpen has been poor. Play on WASHINGTON +1.5 AAA |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs +3 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -113 | 33 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS We’re now 6-0 over the five games of this series with the Under giving us three of those wins. We also won once with the Over. We’ve played the side twice, winning with Dallas in Game 2 and the Clippers in Game 3. The Mavericks now have a 3-2 series lead after taking Game 5 by a score of 105-100. They got 42-8-14 from Luka Doncic, who has been the best player - on either team - in the series. If you’re a Clippers fan, the scary thing is to hear Doncic say “I could have played way better.” We agree that the Mavs could have shot better as a team. They made only 41.6% from the field in Game 5. The home team has yet to win a game, but we see that as likely to change in Game 6 where we like the short home dog. It’s difficult to see the home team losing six in a row in one series. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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06-03-21 | Suns +2 v. Lakers | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX The Lakers appear lost offensively without Anthony Davis. They still have LeBron James and because of that most are going to expect them to force a Game 7. But we don’t. People have underrated this Suns team all season as their 45-30-2 ATS record is second best in the whole league. The Lakers’ ATS record of 33-44-1 is among the five worst in basketball. The Lakers scored a season-low 85 points in Game 5 and trailed by 30 at halftime. While it’s reasonable to assume things will be closer in Game 6, which is in LA, we don’t think the Lakers can make up the entire gap we saw in the last game. That’s even if Davis plays, which is up to the doctors. The Suns defense has been great since the start of the second half of Game 4 as the Lakers are shooting less than 40 percent. Cameron Payne has really stepped up with Chris Paul playing hurt. Devin Booker is handling the scoring. For LA, James has been settling for threes and not getting to the free throw. His supporting cast simply can’t make up for the loss of Davis. You’re seeing why this was a team that had to win a play-in game just to be part of the playoffs. Take the points. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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06-02-21 | Grizzlies +9.5 v. Jazz | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS The Grizzlies are facing elimination in Game 5 as the series moves back to Utah. It’s a tall order facing the underdogs as they’ve now got to defeat the team with the best record in the NBA three straight times, including twice on the road. But considering they did win Game 1 here in Salt Lake City, it would be foolish to write Memphis off at this point. We went with them in what turned out to be 112-109 upset in Game 1 and will do the same tonight. Even though they’ve lost three straight, the Grizzlies have not played poorly by any means in this series. Game 2 was an obvious bounce back situation for the Jazz, but Memphis was still within six in the fourth quarter. The two games at Memphis were both competitive. Game 3 saw the Grizzlies ahead with just over four minutes to go. Game 4 saw them fight back and get as close as two points in the fourth quarter. Take the points tonight. Utah’s three point shooting in the last three games has been excellent, but will cool off. The three point shooting for Memphis should improve from the 28.6% we saw in the last game. The Grizzlies are 24-17 straight up (and 24-15 ATS) on the road in 2020-21. The Jazz are only 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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06-02-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 St. Louis pulled off an upset, winning 3-2 last night here at Dodgers Stadium. But the idea of them winning two in a row seems remote. The Dodgers, paced by an offense that scores 5.2 runs/game and a pitching staff that allows only 3.9, should still be considered the best team in baseball. They have scored 72 more runs than they have allowed through 55 games. The only two teams with better run differentials this year are the Padres and White Sox. The Cardinals are seven games over .500 and chasing the Cubs in the Central. But they have scored exactly one more run than they’ve allowed. The gap in the two teams’ run differentials is significant to us in handicapping this matchup. So is the fact that Dodgers starter Walker Buehler is 3-0 in his 10 starts with a 2.66 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He probably deserves better than a 6-4 team start record. His ERA is 0.90 his last three starts as he’s allowed just three runs, one unearned, in 20 innings. There have been only two starts this year where Buehler gave up more than two runs and every start has gone at least six innings. Carlos Martinez did carry a no-hitter into the 7th inning in his last start. But he was facing Arizona. Dodgers are 53-24 L77 if they scored two or less runs in the last game. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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05-31-21 | 76ers -8 v. Wizards | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Look for the 76ers to finish off the Wizards tonight and to do so in decided fashion. This is just a one sided series as Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 points/game and allowing only 105.3. The last two games were basically over by halftime and ended up being wins of 25 and 29 points. The Wizards have not shot well, which is essentially doom for them as they don’t play very good defense. The teams have met six times this year with Philadelphia now 6-0 straight up. They’ve scored at least 120 points in five of the six wins. Washington has been held under its season average in four of the six losses. Russell Westbrook is hobbled, which makes things even worse for the underdog. Going back to last year, the Sixers have beaten the Wizards eight straight times. They are on a 10-3-1 ATS run as road favorites coming into tonight. Washington has given little indication that they can “hang” and they are 2-10 ATS the last 12 games as a playoff dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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05-29-21 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY |
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05-29-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland is looking to avoid dropping back to back home games to Denver, which would put them in a 3-1 hole in the series. The Blazers simply have not defended well over the course of the three games, first allowing the Nuggets to shoot better than 50% overall in the two games in Denver and then 52.6% from three (20 of 38) in Game 3. But we like old “zig zag theory” to come through for Game 4 as Portland should bounce back at home. Damian Lillard, after an incredible individual effort in Game 2, made just 5 of 16 three point attempts on Thursday. He still scored 37 points mind you, but the team ended up 14 of 45 from three point land. It was the second game in this series where we saw a pretty massive discrepancy in three point shooting between the two teams. The discrepancy worked out in Portland’s favor when they won Game 1 and it’s only natural to see a swing in their favor for Game 4. Denver won’t have Will Barton active for tonight and that’s on top of missing Jamal Murray. We don’t think Austin Rivers is capable of duplicating his Game 3 effort and the Blazers should move to 9-4 ATS this season when off a loss as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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