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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans +1 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #122 Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:20 ET - Historically I like playing against line moves and have had particular success when a line flips. What I mean by that is when you have a team that was the favorite earlier on actually become the dog as the week goes on. That is the case here with the Titans having been favored by nearly a full field goal earlier this week and yet now on game day morning they are a +1 in some spots. I'll take it! I do respect the Colts and their tough defense but Rivers and Company have struggled against tougher teams this season. Rivers has some very strong positive numbers against bad teams but against the Ravens, Bears, Browns (the only teams currently with a winning record which he has faced) he has put up a total of only 1 TD while also throwing 3 INTs. Note that the Colts are only 2-2 SU on the road this season and they entered this season 7-17 SU on the road the 3 prior seasons combined. Both teams are on a short week of course with this being a Thursday game. However, it is a little more manageable for the Titans because this is the 2nd of back to back home games for them. For the Colts, they are on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and plus they just played a physical Ravens team. This season, teams are 2-5 ATS the week after playing Baltimore and, again, in this case it is a short week too which makes it even tougher for the Colts. I know the box score was an ugly one for Tennessee last week and they were fortunate to beat the Bears but I am sure they were peeking ahead to this huge division rivalry game a bit too. Keep in mind Indy has dominated this series long-term and that includes winning the last two games here by a combined score of 52-34. The Titans are poised to say "enough is enough" and I look for Ryan Tannehill (19-3 TD-INT ratio) to bounce back after a 10 for 21 performance last week. Tennessee simply wasn't good last week but they still improve to 4-1 SU at home on the season and are now 25-12 in home games since the start of the 2016 season. Titans finally get it done against the Colts at home as Tannehill outplays Rivers as the main story line in this one. 10* TENNESSEE |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #120 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos vs Toledo Rockets @ 8 ET - When it is early in the season it helps once you've see a team twice to know a little bit more. I know what you're thinking. This teams have only played once so what I am talking about? Let me explain. Toledo destroyed Bowling Green last week but then I watched the Falcons get destroyed again last night by a Kent State team that, no disrespect intended, shouldn't be beating anyone else in the MAC by a 38 point margin especially when on the road. So the point is don't put too much stock into the Rockets destroying the Falcons last week. As for the Broncos, they destroyed the Zips last week and that game was at Akron. Then what did we see from Akron last night, a determined effort at Ohio University where they were a 4 TD underdog and didn't even give up 28 points on the night in the 24-10 hard-fought loss. The point is that, even though it is early in the season, the Broncos might be stronger than most anticipated. These teams were projected to finish 1-2 in the West Division of the MAC. With the fact that the Rockets have dominated this series recently but the Broncos at home for this one and revenge-seeking and perhaps even stronger than many anticipated entering this season, I am going big on Western Michigan here. The Broncos are a very strong along the offensive line and also their defense looks deeper this season. The offense will attack a Toledo secondary that is a bit of a question mark entering this season. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #112 Tuesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Miami-OH Redhawks @ 8 ET - The Bulls are off a revenging win at Northern Illinois last week. The Huskies had beaten them in the MAC Championship Game year before last. Now Buffalo has another revenge game this week. Last season one of their few MAC losses was at Miami-Ohio. The Bulls lost that game because of 4 turnovers and 10 penalties for over 100 yards! Buffalo outgained the Redhawks by 164 yards on the ground and I expect that to be a theme again in this year's rematch. The Bulls catch Miami-Ohio off a hard-fought home win over Ball State. They lost QB Brett Gabbert in that one and I would be very surprised if he plays this week. Although AJ Mayer was solid in taking his place that game was at home against a weak Cardinals defense. He will face a much tougher defense this week plus he is on the road. Even though the stats weren't so great for the Bulls last week I do like the fact they averaged 5.4 ypc on the ground while Miami-Ohio averaged only 3.2 ypc on the ground against a generally sub-par Cards defense. If Mayer gets the start here it will be the first start of his career and it comes on the road and it comes against the best team in the MAC East and it comes with the Bulls in revenge mode and playing their home opener. I am not a big fan of laying big points but this one meets all the requirements I look for when doing so. Also, note that the Bulls have covered 8 in a row as a MAC home favorite. That streak continues here. 10* BUFFALO |
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11-08-20 | Saints +4.5 v. Bucs | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - the saints have won 4 straight games, i fully realize this is a revenge game for tampa bay but the buccaneers last 4 games have featured a loss and a 2-point win, there is great value with having the points on your side in this match-up, the bucs defense grabs all the headlines but the saints defense is better than you think, take a look at the yardage stats rather than just point totals to get the full read on a defense, in this case the buccaneers are allowing 299.5 yards per game while the saints are allowing 328.4 yards per game, as you can see this is only a small variance, i also like the fact that new orleans should have wr michael thomas back for this game, overall the saints are getting healthier than they have been and that is another reason i expect them to improve to 5-0 su/ats L5 meetings with TB, new orleans is 7-1 ats the last 8 times they have been a dog and in this match-up they are catching as much as 4.5 points as of early gameday morning, the bucs are off a monday night game and that was their 2nd straight road game and this game will be their 9th straight this season without a bye, new orleans a little fresher courtesy of a bye week just a couple weeks ago, the saints are a 1/2 game back in the standings and this is their chance to leap frog tampa bay for 1st place in the division, look for them to make the most of the opportunity, if they do fall short i expect it to be by 4 or less points, grab the dog, 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:25 ET - the dolphins are over-rated in my opinion and we're catching them at the perfect time to fade them, miami is coming off a big over the rams even though they were outgained by 326 yards and had 23 less first downs, of course this is leading to line value this week because it is also noteworthy that tagovailoa will be making his first road start, arizona has a big edge here with coming off their bye week and that was preceded by 3 straight wins both SU and ATS, if the dolphins were having a poor season the cardinals might overlook them, the fact that miami has a winning record and just beat the LA rams makes sure of the fact that the cardinals will have proper focus here, also another AFC team is on deck for arizona so there is no lookahead here, the dolphins are on a 5-10 ats run as a road dog in a non-divisional game while the cardinals are 4-1 ats their last 5 games against afc competition, statistically the cards have one of the best offenses in the league while the dolphins have one of the worst and i just don't see miami being able to keep up in this one as the cardinals get after tagovailoa early and often and disrupt the dolphins entire game plan 10* ARIZONA |
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11-07-20 | Houston +13.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Saturday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - I am aware that Houston has some injury issues here but I have had my eyes on this match-up all along and will not hold back here as this play gets my highest rating. Cincinnati is a very strong football team but they are over-valued here. Yes they are 5-0 on the season but 2 of those wins weren't even a challenge as they faced Austin Peay as well as a very bad USF team. In their other 3 games, though the Bearcats dominated the scoreboard, they actually had LESS first downs than their opponent in 2 of those 3 games. Now, even with that said, Cincinnati is absolutely the better team in comparison with the Cougars. However, being favored by nearly 2 touchdowns here will prove to be far too much. I don't expect the Bearcats to go undefeated this season and an upset here would not surprise me. But at the very least I do expect Houston to stay within one score of the Bearcats throughout this game. Yes, the Cougars got throttled by UCF last week but that is one of the scariest offenses to face in college football. The Knights are an absolute machine on offense. As for their other loss it came against BYU and we saw again last night (throttled Broncos AT Boise State!) that this Brigham Young team is a beast this season. In other words, I think the Cougars defense is much improved over last season but they haven't had a chance to fully show that yet based on facing a much tougher schedule than the Bearcats have. As for offense, that has never really been a question mark for the Cougars and they'll have some special plays in the playbook for this one to give Cincy some troubles on defense. I fully believe the Bearcats are challenged in this one and, after winning your first 5 games by an average margin of 27.6 points, suddenly finding yourself in a tight dog-fight can change the mentality of a team real quick. Cincinnati might end up 'pressing' a bit on offense in this one as a result and the Cougars, on the other hand, come into this game very relaxed knowing that no one is giving them a chance in this game. That sets up for a very dangerous underdog and I love having the scrappy dog on my side for this game. 10* HOUSTON |
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11-07-20 | Michigan State v. Iowa -5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #350 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ Noon ET - I was waiting to see what this line did and things have worked out perfectly. As a result of the suspension of Iowa wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette this line has dropped even though this is a fantastic situation for the angry Hawkeyes. First off, after throwing 3 picks last week how much do you think the Hawkeyes are going to be firing the ball downfield trying to get huge gains in this one? The fact is that Iowa is going to win this game with their defense and also with pounding away with their ground game and a very short passing game. The point is that the Hawkeyes can still win this game handily even without Ihmir Smith-Marsette so his absence has merely given us even more value with this line dropping instead of possibly going the other way and going above a TD. Keep in mind that Michigan State is a rather inexperienced team and they are off a huge win over rival Michigan and now playing a 2nd straight road game. Additionally, the Spartans are facing an Iowa team that has started a season 0-2 for the first time in 20 years. Yes Michigan State looked great in upsetting the Wolverines but lets not forget their other game was a turnover-filled debacle which resulted in a 38-27 loss to Rutgers! The Spartans are 3-9 ATS the last two years when they are off a SU win. Also, Michigan State has failed to cover 11 of their last 14 in Big Ten games. Iowa should improve to 11-4 ATS the last 15 games in this series as they bounce back from two tight losses to start the season. Blowing a 17-0 lead in last week's turnover-fueled home loss also means the Hawkeyes defense comes into this fired up and with their ears pinned back. They have heard plenty about QB Lombardi and his big game last week and they're highly motivated to shut him down. The Spartans haven't been able to get much going on the ground early this season and that puts an awful lot of pressure on Lombardi to try and beat a tough Hawkeyes defense through the air. I just don't see that happening and the home team pulls away to win this one by double digits. 8* IOWA |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +6.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - I know the 49ers have injury issues at QB and TE. Also, I am well aware this is a revenge game for the Packers since they lost the NFC Championship here last season. However, this line is getting out of hand. Everyone has been pounding Green Bay and the line is now a 6. When you factor in home field that line is basically saying that the Packers are 9 points better than the 49ers on a neutral field. I strongly disagree. Yes, San Francisco has some injury issues but QB Nick Mullens has gained some valuable experience under center and he wants to make up for his rough effort in primetime when he faced the Eagles not too long ago in a primetime match-up. I also like the fact that the home dog Niners knocked off the Rams in a convincing win as an underdog host just a few weeks ago. San Francisco is a scrappy team and they were 4-3 before the loss at Seattle last week and 2 of those 3 losses were by 5 or less points. Taking a look at Green Bay, they are 5-2 SU on the season but 4 of their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-22 SU on the season. I am not totally sold on this Packers team just yet. Remember that they got embarrassed by the Buccaneers this season plus are coming off a loss to the Vikings where they couldn't stop their running back. This was similar to last year's NFC Championship game in which Green Bay couldn't stop Mostert. All the talk in this game is about Garoppolo and Kittle being out for the Niners offense but their defense is better than people realize and I am not totally sold on this Packers team. Look for the 49ers to keep this game very close and possibly even spring the upset as I am expecting Mullens to have a solid game. He has a lot of confidence after playing well when he came in at Seattle Sunday. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-04-20 | Ohio v. Central Michigan +3 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #296 Wednesday 10* Top Play Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Chippewas did lose some talent from last year's team but this is still a Central Michigan team that went to the MAC Championship Game last season. Also, after losing that game plus losing their bowl came, the Chips couldn't wait to get back on the field. This team is hungry to bounce back from those two season-ending defeats and is ready to prove they can win even without the services of QB Dormady and RB Ward. Ohio also lost their starting QB and he, Rourke, was a huge for this team. They do now have Rourke's younger brother and also UNLV transfer Rogers but either guy is likely to struggle early on. I like the Chippewas handling of the QB replacement situation much better and, keep in mind, this is a Central Michigan team that went a perfect 6-0 SU at home last season and they were blowout wins too! As for the Bobcats, they are getting a little too much respect from the betting markets here in my opinion. I know Solich is a veteran coach but Chippewas coach Jim McElwain has been a head coach at Colorado State and Florida! He has experience in bigger conferences than the MAC and that paid off last season and now he is in his 2nd season with the Chips and I feel that they are under-valued in this spot. Yes they lost some key personnel from last year's team but the same holds true for Ohio University. I am happy to take the home dog here as this line was originally a pick'em. 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Of course this goes without saying, and is evident with the big point spread posted on this game, but the Buccaneers are the much better team in this match-up. However, that certainly does not mean they are worthy of laying nearly two touchdowns on the road against a Giants team that is a little better than people give them credit for. In terms of situational value, this is a great spot for New York as they catch Tom Brady and the Buccaneers right before a huge Sunday night game against Drew Brees and the Saints. Not only is that a divisional game for TB, it is also a revenge game as the Bucs lost their season opener at New Orleans this year. Based on records entering this weekend's action, other than the Packers, none of the 6 wins the Buccaneers had were against teams with a winning record. Now they face a Giants team with a poor record too but that's not my point. The point I am making is that be careful giving too much credit to TB based on their early season schedule and, keep in mind, of the 3 tougher teams they placed they won only 1 of those games. They beat GB and lost to NO and the Bears. In Monday's match-up the Giants are going to be tough to put away. They are a respectable defense that has allowed 26 points or less in 5 of 7 games. In terms of putting points on the board, New York has been better in their last 3 games as they have averaged scoring 25 points per game. As good as the Bucs defense is, this is a Tampa Bay team that has allowed at least 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. I see TB winning this game but I don't see the victory coming by a double digit margin and those numbers I just mentioned support my theory on this one. Additionally, the Giants are well-rested coming off a Thursday night game. They blew a late lead in that one while the Buccaneers were up by just a single score against Vegas last week before they pulled away in convincing fashion late. I like the fact too that QB Daniel Jones led New York to the comeback win (22-3 2nd half) in their win at Tampa Bay last season. The Bucs are better this season but the Giants again won't go away without a fight here and that gets them the cover in this one in my opinion. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles -10.5 | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - It might seem difficult to lay double digits with a 2-4-1 Eagles team but I can quickly ease your mind about that for sure. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS this season. Yes indeed Dallas has not covered a single game this season and I certainly don't see that changing this week. I don't expect to see Andy Dalton here as he is in concussion protocol. That means Ben DiNucci is expected to get the start here. He'll be protected by a makeshift offensive line that is the worst in the NFL this season. He'll be handing off the ball to Ezekiel Elliott and he is having a rough season with as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns. Also, the Eagles have one of the top defensive lines in football. This will create havoc for the Cowboys as plays will get blown up at the line of scrimmage. Dallas has scored an average of 6.5 points per game the past two weeks! Each of the Cowboys last 3 losses have come by 11 points or more - average margin of defeat was 20.3 points per game. The Eagles will show no mercy here and are getting a little healthier on the offensive side of the ball. This is a big rivalry for Philly and they are at home and have a bye week on deck. Remember the Eagles blew a 17-0 lead against the Redskins in the very first game of this season. In other words, they already know no lead is safe no matter the situation. Carson Wentz has been playing much better in recent weeks and leading this team to victories. They are facing a Dallas defense that ranks among the worst in the NFL and now has even started unloading veterans to get younger guys more playing time. Waving the white flag? No it is still too early for that but the fact is that this Cowboys team is in disarray and they are in big trouble in this one. The Eagles have scored an average of 26 points per game their last 4 games and that included 2 wins and note that the 2 losses were against 2 of the best teams in the NFL - Steelers and Ravens. The Cowboys last 3 games included games against the Giants and Redskins and yet they still allowed an average of 32 points per game during this 3-game stretch. I just don't see the Dallas offense doing much and Wentz has averaged 277 yards passing the last 3 weeks and thrown for 6 TDs and run for 2 more. Considering all factors, this one turns into an absolute rout because there is no love lost between these two rivals and the Eagles still remember the Redskins loss in a key week 1 divisional battle. Philly won't take their foot off the gas here and the Cowboys defense is one of the worst units in the league. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-01-20 | Vikings +6.5 v. Packers | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation#253 Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - Why is it that the Packers did not make it to the Super Bowl last season? That question could generate a number of responses but, technically, there is just one reason. Green Bay lost to the 49'ers in the NFC Championship Game. Today is Sunday. 4 days from now the Packers are at San Francisco for a Thursday Night game. This is clearly a lookahead situation. I know what you're thinking...that the Vikings are a division rival, etc. Valid thinking for sure but GB already beat Minnesota this season and the Vikes carry an ugly 1-5 record into this game. Green Bay might subconsciously be thinking this will be an easy game. That is the thinking that will proven wrong and the Pack get in trouble here as they already have one eye on a revenge game at SF coming up! That wasn't just any loss folks...that was a loss that kept Aaron Rodgers and company from playing in the Super Bowl! In terms of additional value here, the Vikings are off a bye week and that is a chance to hit the reset button on what has been a tough start to the season. Additionally, the Vikings last 4 games resulted in just 1 SU win but 2 of the 3 losses came by just a single point! That means if you had Minnesota +6.5 in each of their last 4 games you would have cashed 3 of your 4 tickets. Indeed the Vikings do come into this game on a 3-1 ATS run. The only ugly loss was when the Vikes faced a very determined Falcons team right after they had fired their coach. The last two meetings between these teams at Lambeau Field resulted in a 5 points Vikes loss and a tie game. This one will be another tight game the way I see it and, if the Vikings don't win outright, they'll lose by a very small margin in my opinion. 8* MINNESOTA |
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10-31-20 | Missouri +14 v. Florida | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #193 Saturday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers (+) @ Florida Gators @ 7:30 ET - This is a great spot to back a big dog. The Tigers have played a very tough schedule so they are a battle-tested already and building momentum as they are off back to back wins. I also like the fact that Missouri proved they could win no matter the style of play. They beat LSU 45-41 in a high-scoring thriller and then beat Kentucky 20-10 in a low-scoring grinder. I really like the Tigers defense this season. Major improvements on that side of the ball in terms of personnel and coaching and it has paid off. The bigger point totals that Missouri allowed in the first 3 games are actually a bit deceiving. Note that the Tigers have allowed only 365 yards per game. That said, the bigger point totals allowed in the first 3 games certainly had some other variables and are merely helping to give us line value here. I also like the fact that the Gators will be playing their first game in 3 weeks (covid issues) and there could be some rust and lingering issues as a result. After Missouri got back to back wins in this series, Florida exacted double revenge last year but the first downs were only 18-15 in that 23-6 final. Another case where we're getting some extra line value baked into this line. I look for Missouri to be in this game all the way. The Gators lost to A & M in their most recent game and their only other two games this season saw both decided by 16 or less points. The point is that even if factors were normal for this game I could see the Tigers hanging within this 14 point spread all game long but, with extenuating factors, I feel this tough Mizzou defense could keep this team within 7 all game long and the Tigers just might even be in line for a huge upset win late in this one. Grab the big points. This year it is Missouri with revenge on their minds and they have a bye week on deck while Florida has huge game with Georgia on deck! 10* MISSOURI |
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10-31-20 | TCU -2.5 v. Baylor | 33-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #175 Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs (-) @ Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - Baylor's season has been tremendously impacted by Covid. Sure they were able to win their first game but that was against a Kansas team that is annually very bad and has prove to fall into the "very bad" category once again this season. Following that win the Bears lost 27-21 in double OT to West Virginia but they were fortunate that game even got into OT. The Mountaineers never trailed the entire game and led by at least 7 points most of the way. Speaking of misleading finals, Baylor also managed to fall by just 11 points at Texas last week but they were dominated in most aspects of the game and trailed it by 27-3 at one point before some good fortune led to a late rally that was still well short of threatening anything but the cover. The point is that Baylor beat a bad Jayhawks team and then were clearly outclassed in their next two games and they will be outclassed again here by the Horned Frogs. TCU has played a much tougher schedule than Baylor. That said, the Horned Frogs 1-3 SU record may not impress but the teams they have played have a combined SU record of 13-7 and all are tough Big 12 teams. I love taking solid teams off back to back losses and that is the case here with the Horned Frogs. We get a good team off consecutive SU losses and, keep in mind, they take on a Baylor team with a first year head coach. Yes, Dave Aranda is a solid coach who knows how to construct good defenses but he is in his 1st year as a head coach and first year with the Bears and it is a pandemic-influenced year. On the other side of the field, instead of introducing new coaching and new systems in a year impacted greatly by covid (reduced spring practice too, etc), the Horned Frogs are coached by Gary Patterson...yes, the same Gary Patterson that has been there for 20 consecutive seasons. Considering the above as well as the fact that TCU has revenge from last year's home loss to Baylor, this one is set up perfectly for a road rout. The Horned Frogs beat Texas outright as a double digit dog 4 weeks ago while Baylor faced the same UT team last week and got dominated. Lay the short number with the road fave here. 8* TCU |
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10-30-20 | East Carolina v. Tulsa -16.5 | Top | 30-34 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #108 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-) vs East Carolina Pirates @ 9 ET - Last season Tulsa outgained East Carolina by a margin of 286 yards and that was on the road! Not only that, this is the first home game of the season for the Golden Hurricane and so I expect them to roll big here. Normally I don't like laying big numbers but this is a rare exception. Not only is this one quite a mismatch in terms of talent level of these two teams, the Pirates have also been hit by covid-19 issues. This has even hit their starting QB but he is expected to play in this game but he and other players have missed practice time and there have been quarantine issues and the list goes on. I know that East Carolina can score some points but the Tulsa defense has been fantastic this season and I expect that to continue here. In terms of common opponents, East Carolina faced UCF and they were at home for that game and still got blasted by 23 points. Tulsa faced the same Knights team and they were on the road for that game and yet got a huge upset win as they won outright by 8 points as a 3-TD underdog. The Golden Hurricane are allowing only 18.3 points per game this season while the Pirates are allowing 37.8 points per game. Defense and the fact that this is Tulsa's first home game of the season will prove to be the difference in this game. East Carolina is allowing 212.8 rushing yards per game and last season the Golden Hurricane ran for 338 yards against the Pirates and that was on the road! 10* TULSA |
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10-29-20 | Colorado State v. Fresno State +2 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 38 h 17 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #158 Thursday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Colorado State Rams @ 10 PM ET - The Bulldogs are off an ugly season-opening loss marred by turnovers. However, they were facing a revenge-minded Hawaii team they had beaten 3 straight years. That is not an excuse but simply a fact as they faced a hungry dog that is an improving program and they struggled. Now it is Fresno State that has revenge on their minds as they take on a Colorado State team that defeated them by double digits last season. Edges for the Bulldogs abound in this one as last season they were the better running team plus the better team in terms of defending the run. Also, Colorado State hired the former Boston College coach soon after he was fired after being mostly mediocre for the Eagles. This was not consider a great hire in Fort Collins circles and the pandemic has added to the challenges for him in his first season with the Rams. Spring practice time ended up being much shorter than it would have been and also, in recent weeks, practices leading up to this game have been impacted by some covid-19 issues on the team. That significantly hampers a team that also hasn't played yet while Fresno State does have the edge of having a game under the belt. Additionally, the Bulldogs defense is going to take advantage of the Colorado State offensive line which is an area of concern for the Rams and is what prevents them from establishing a consistent ground attack. Look for the home dog to have the better ground game here and look better on the defensive side of the ball too. Will grab the 2 points in case it is tight but should not need them. 10* FRESNO STATE |
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10-29-20 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - I know it may seem tough to trust the Falcons here after they found a way to lose another late lead but, keep in mind, Atlanta has been playing better since the coaching change. There is a different atmosphere around this team now and the resilience will shine through in this divisional game which is the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. Matt Ryan has been piling up yardage for the Falcons and, though Carolina got the win in the first meeting, they'll struggled to stop a rejuvenated Atlanta team in the rematch. The fact this game is at Carolina just means line value for us because we get a few points to work with too. Also, though the Panthers are off a cover against the Saints last week, they were heavily outgained including by over 100 yards on the ground. Managing to get a cover when you lose the yardage battle on the ground by more than the century mark in an NFL game is nearly a miracle. That said, there will be no miracles here and I expect the better offense (Falcons) in this match-up to rule the day. Keep in mind, Atlanta blew a huge lead against the Cowboys and the Bears to lose those games but that was then and this now. Combining those tight losses with the loss to the Lions this past Sunday however, the point is that 3 of their 6 losses have come by an average margin of just 2 points. In other words, great value with grabbing the points here although I am expecting an upset win for the Falcons in this one. 10* ATLANTA |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are in the -250 range on the money line. What does that have to do with laying the points here? Well, as you can see from that line, Los Angeles has a high probability of winning this game and the fact is I have had my eyes on this one ever since successfully using the 49ers against LA last week. The Rams are in full-on bounce back mode here and now the point spread has dropped to as low as a -5.5 in some spots as of early game day morning. Now, about that all-important cover...if you are confident the Rams will win you can also be quite confident of the cover. Why is that? Well of the last 12 wins that LA has had, only one (the 3-point win over the Cowboys in Week 1) has come by less than 7 points. Indeed, 92% of the Rams last dozen wins have come by a margin of at least a TD. I fully expect this one will too. I know the Bears have a solid defense but so too does Los Angeles. Also, I really like the LA offense to have a breakout game here. The other two times this season when the Rams were off a game in which they scored 20 points or less they have responded by averaging 33.5 points in their next game. Look for another response here after scoring just 16 last week against Chicago. The Rams have not yet had a breakout game at home as they are averaging just 18.5 points per game at home this season. Look for this to be the game for Jared Goff and company as they are very fired up after last week's poor effort. As for the Bears, I know they have made some positive strides since Nick Foles took over but their only two tough opponents this season both were faced in Chicago. In those two games - versus Indy and TB - the Bears averaged just 15.5 points per game and that included 8 points on a late TD and 2 point conversion against the Colts with under a minute to go in a game that was really all but already decided at that point. In other words, I am not impressed with this Bears offense and now this is the first time this season they are facing a tough team on the road. They won't be able to keep up with the Rams as I expect LA to have a huge game offensively. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #468 Sunday 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - Every week I always am on the lookout for what I would call "strange lines" in NFL. They are games I want to investigate because if it is something the public is likely to line up on then of course I want to be on the other side of it. This game is a perfect example. Seattle is off their bye week, they are 5-0 on the season, and they have been available as low as a -3 in a game against a Cardinals team that is certainly not known as a powerhouse and already has 2 losses on the season. Who do you think the public is going to take in this game? Exactly! So in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side but, also in typical fashion, of course it is not without good reason or at least what I certainly feel very strongly is good reason. Yes the Cardinals are off a huge win on MNF over the Cowboys but if you think they are going to fall flat against an NFC West rival that they are chasing for the top spot in the division, there is just no way! Adding to some additional value for the home dog here is the fact that they have a bye week on deck. The Cardinals will absolutely go all out in this one and I expect them to win outright but certainly am happy to grab the 3.5 points being offered. The Seahawks have the worst defense in the NFL so far this season. Seattle is allowing 471.2 yards per game which is 125 ypg more than the Cardinals are giving up. Seahawks must have faced a powerhouse schedule, right? Nope! Even though one could argue their schedule has been tougher than the Cards, the fact is the teams Seattle has faced have a combined record of 9-20 this season and none of them have a winning record. The Cardinals dominated the Seahawks on the scoreboard AND in the stats when these teams last met and that was in Seattle. In the meeting that preceded that, the Seahawks beat the Cards by 17 points here in Arizona but the yardage edge was only 21 for Seattle and now it is payback time. This Cardinals team is better than people realize and the Seahawks defense is going to struggle badly to try and contain elusive QB Kyler Murray. Look for a home dog outright upset as another unbeaten falls this week but there is no way I am passing up on grabbing the 3.5 points here. 8* ARIZONA |
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10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders +5.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:05 ET - First off, many of you know that I live in Vegas but want everyone to know I am not a Raiders fan. Not saying I am against Las Vegas, I wish them well and hope the franchise is very successful here just like the Golden Knights have been in hockey - also not a fan of that team by the way. So, the point is, there is no favoritism involved with me making this big play. This is purely based on situational value and waiting has paid off in terms of getting a better number too. As of gameday morning, this line is up to a 5.5 as the big news this week in Vegas was the covid testing and impact on the offensive line for the Raiders in this one. However, let me give you the bigger news on this one! Las Vegas enters this game off a bye week while Tampa Bay enters this game off a huge win over previously unbeaten Green Bay. Now many of you will say the home team here is also off a huge win since they won at Kansas City two weeks ago. However, the key here is the bye week and also the fact that the Raiders lost at home in their game that preceded the upset of the Chiefs. Now the even bigger news flash here that seems to be forgotten by some is Las Vegas head coach Jon Gruden has it out for the Buccaneers in this one. Why? He was fired by them after 7 seasons about a decade ago. This Raiders gig is his first foray back into head coaching since that happened. You think he might have a little extra motivation for this game? Ya think?!?! Indeed he has had two weeks to prepare for this one and Las Vegas will be ready here and I feel the covid situation will prove to not be a big deal at all and the O-line will be just fine in this game. Don't be surprised if the Bucs are a little flat after that fantastic effort against the Packers. As for the Raiders, there will be nothing flat about their game on Sunday. They will come ready to play and I expect a huge game for them. Yes the Buccaneers have the better defense in this match-up but they will struggle to come anywhere close to matching the effort they just gave against Green Bay last week. Couple that with the fact that the Raiders offense (399.4 ypg) ranks ahead of the Bucs offense (358.2 ypg) and you have a fantastic home dog situation here. With Tom Brady in Tampa they will continue to be overvalued by the betting markets. We take advantage. 10* LAS VEGAS |
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10-25-20 | Steelers +2 v. Titans | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - In a match-up of unbeatens I am happy to take the better defense in this one. I know Tennessee has made a lot of noise in their past two games with huge offensive performances but the Titans defense (409.8 ypg) ranks among the worst in the league. The Steelers defense (285.2 ypg) ranks among the best in the league. Yes, Pittsburgh has a huge game with the Ravens on deck but there is no way they are looking past an undefeated Titans team. This is particularly true when they themselves are also undefeated and certainly looking to stay that way. I also like the fact that all of the Steelers wins have come by 5 or more points while Tennessee's first 3 wins all came by 3 or less points and then last week's win was in OT. Also, I am sure some Titans fans sent thank you letters to Texans interim head coach Romeo Crennel for his idiotic decision to go for 2 late in the 4th quarter instead of being a normal coach and being happy to kick the extra point and have an 8-point lead. That is the key reason the Titans are still undefeated and, with all their close games this season, it is only a matter a time of that "playing with fire" gets Tennessee burned. I expect them to feel that "burn" this week. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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10-24-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 | 49-24 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #386 Saturday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - The Gophers typically are the punching bag of the Wolverines but things are changing. As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian in many situations and this one is no exception. History can lead to value when times are changing and Minnesota is on their way up in recent season while Michigan continues to tread water. Yes the Wolverines defense should be solid but their offense has some major question marks heading into this season. Minny is really going to be up for this game and they have a very potent offense which I feel strongly will prove to be too much even for a solid defense like Michigan has. That said, the Wolverines offense will not be able to keep up in this one and that will be the difference in the game. Some will argue this point but I feel it is easier to replace guys on defense than offense. The Golden Gophers lost a lot of key personnel from last season's defensive unit while the Wolverines suffered massive attrition to the roster on the offensive side. Statistically these teams were nearly equal last season. Considering the above as well as the 3.5 point line and I feel the value clearly lies with the home dog here. Most will be lining up on Michigan here with their history of success at Minnesota. Keep in mind, this Gophers team has a lot of confidence now after their 11-win season last year. This program is stronger than it has been in some time and you'll see that on the field Saturday. 8* MINNESOTA |
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10-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #356 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 5:30 ET - This is a great spot to back a home dog. The Red Raiders are off a bye week which followed 3 straight losses. They are making a change at QB and I like the move and they have had extra time to prepare for this week's game which means its "all systems go" and I expect a jolt of energy for the team. While on paper it looks like the Mountaineers have the much better defense, note that the Red Raiders have faced some tough competition (like Texas) that ran up their stats in a negative way on the defense side of the ball. West Virginia faced a bad Kansas team and a Baylor team with a new coach and struggling with covid-related issues. The Mountaineers also had a game against Eastern Kentucky. Their only truly tough game was against Oklahoma State and they got rolled by two touchdowns. Lubbock, TX is not an easy place to play and that is particularly true for a Big 12 team that is based in West Virginia! The situation is perfect for the Red Raiders and they are hungry for a win and very hungry for a home win too as this is their first home game since they let a huge late lead slip away against rival Texas a month ago. The home team gets back on track here and I am glad to have the added insurance of the 3 points too with this home dog. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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10-24-20 | Florida State v. Louisville -4 | 16-48 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #314 Saturday 8* Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Florida State Seminoles @ Noon ET - This line opened up around a 7 even though the Cardinals have lost 4 straight games. Why? Well, Florida State is off an upset win over North Carolina while Louisville has lost 4 straight games. But here are the keys. The Cards have played the tougher schedule and they also have revenge here against the Noles. The markets have moved this line lower (as I expected) and that is why there is great value with the home team in this one. The Cardinals lost to Notre Dame by just 5, the Seminoles lost to the Fighting Irish by 16. The Cards lost to to Miami by just 13 while the Noles lost to the Hurricanes by 42. Louisville is allowing about 100 yards less per game than Florida State and the better defense and home field and revenge factors all add up to a big home win here. Plus FSU QB Jordan Travis was with the Cardinals previously so they know plenty about him and his tendencies. 8* LOUISVILLE |
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10-23-20 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -18.5 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #388 Friday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 8 ET - It is RARE for me to lay this many points and the situation has to be special for me to ever do it. We have a VERY special situation here. The Badgers were 6-0 last season and destroying everyone they encountered before a trip to Illinois for their 7th game of the season. Wisconsin was a 4 TD favorite in that game and they LOST! It was absolutely one of the MOST unlikely upsets of the entire CFB season. Coming into this season the Badgers are expected to be at the top of the Big Ten West while the Illini are projected to be at the very bottom of the Big Ten West. This game is a complete mismatch. I am fully aware of the QB injury for the Badgers Coan but Mertz is a highly skilled QB that will have very little trouble going against this weak Illini defense. The last two times that the Illini visited Camp Randall they lost by an average of 37 points per visit. Wisconsin's last 3 season openers have been won by an average margin of 43 points! Normally I don't lay big points because of the fear of backdoor covers or a team taking their foot off of the gas late. That is not going to be the case here. The Badgers don't want to just win this game, they want to pulverize Illinois in this game. Though Wisconsin has some injury issues at the skill positions on offense they still will have plenty of firepower and their ground game will push the Illini defense all over the field as the Badgers O-line bullies the Illinois D-line. The strength of the Badgers is their defense and I can't see Illinois scoring much at all in this game yet the posted total on this game opened up at 52.5 points! What does that tell you? The odds makers are expecting Wisconsin to score plenty in this game and I concur. Badgers roll by at least 4 TDs in my opinion. 10* WISCONSIN |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -109 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #304 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This line made a major move on Monday around 2 PM ET (11 AM PT here in Vegas where I live). I watched the screens light up as the Eagles line got pounded down. The thinking process here by the betting markets must be that the odds makers have no idea about injury situations and don't watch the games. They saw Miles Sanders get hurt and they were aware of the Zach Ertz injury. Yet they still posted this line near a -7 which is where it belongs. But now due to false market perception this line has been driven down to a 3.5 which is basically saying the Giants and the Eagles are equal teams if they played on a neutral field. I vehemently disagree with this assessment. Note that as good as Zach Ertz is, the fact remains he has averaged only 16 receiving yards per game the past 3 weeks! He has NOT been a huge component of the Eagles offense in recent weeks. Also there is a decent chance the Eagles will get WR DeSean Jackson back for this one plus Alshon Jeffery even has an outside shot at playing too. Certainly the Sanders injury hurts but the Eagles have some other running backs they will make use of here. Their comeback against the Ravens (would have tied it if not for a late failed two point conversion) did not feature Sanders or Ertz. After going toe to toe with the Ravens now the Eagles take on a Giants team that barely hung on for their first win of the season. New York had started the year 0-5 and other than one 34 point outburst against a horrific Cowboys defense, the Giants averaged only 13.4 points per game in their other 5 games and did not top 20 in any of those games. Conversely, the Eagles have scored at least 23 points in 4 straight games and have averaged 26 points during this stretch. Again, Ertz has played little role in this too. Just look at his stats if you don't believe me. The Eagles have swept the Giants each of the past two seasons and the average margin of victory in those 4 games is 12 points. Eagles hungry for a win, Giants just got their first, Wentz starting to look better (even against powerful Ravens) and Jones for the Giants is still a very young QB trying to find his way at the NFL level. Jones now faces a dangerous defense in terms of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a powerful defensive line. Grab the line value with the small home favorite that is very hungry to get back into the win column and will take care of business against a division rival once again here just like the other recent meetings. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -12.5 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Thursday 8* Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7:30 ET - The Mountaineers could have some rust because they haven't played in 4 weeks in this pandemic-impacted season. However, Appalachian State is still a far superior team to Arkansas State and also is at home for this one. As a result, look for the Mountaineers to eventually have no problem in pulling away as this game goes on. The big difference is Appalachian State can actually play a little defense while Arkansas State has been horrendous on that side of the ball. The Mountaineers have allowed a TOTAL of just 58 points in their 3 games this season. Conversely, the Red Wolves have allowed 52 points in a single game twice in their last 3 games! Arkansas State is allowing 40 points per game and 482 yards per game this season while Appalachian State allowing just 323 yards and 19 points per game! The Mountaineers improve to 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in SBC action. 8* APPALACHIAN STATE |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #275 Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The line on this game prior to the Dak Prescott injury was Dallas -3 and it was moving toward -3.5 for sure. But then he got hurt on Sunday so the game came off the board and when it went back up it was Arizona -3. Now all week long I have patiently waited for this one as I knew "America's Team" would get their love from the betting markets and that we'd eventually get the Cardinals as a dog in this one. Sure enough the line has swung back almost to where it was with Prescott at the controls! We are now seeing 1.5 show up this morning on the Cowboys and, in all likelihood it could even climb higher. However, this is the time of day I post my picks here generally so, for me, it is now "go time" with this one. Keep in mind, the last thing the Cowboys could afford was an injury to Prescott. Why? Well because their offense is the only thing they have going for them. This team's defense is atrocious and now led by Andy Dalton at QB. He had some good years in Cincinnati for sure. The key word there however is "had". Note that in Dalton's final season there he threw nearly as many INT's as TD's and had his lowest completion percentage since his rookie season and had a career high in fumbles. Why do you think the Bengals were ready to move on? And, keep in mind, this is the Bengals we're talking about folks! The Cardinals defense will have their ears pinned back for this one (on the attack like angry dogs) and they are allowing only 20.4 points per game. As for the Cowboys defense, they have allowed 40 points per game their last 4 games and have allowed at least 34 points in all 4 of their games since a season opening 20-17 loss to the Rams. Dallas barely held on to beat the Giants last week and their only win so far this season was their miraculous 1 point win against Atlanta earlier this season. Keep in mind, Atlanta and the Giants were a combined 0-10 entering this weekend's action and the Cowboys defense allowed 73 points in those 2 victories. Unless Dallas can pull a rabbit out of the hat on defense I see them struggling against a Kliff Klingsbury coached team with Kyler Murray at QB. Both those guys have Texas roots and Murray has fond memories of games played here in Big D. In fact, Murray is 6-0 all time in games played here including 3 state championships here when he played for Allen High School and also he won a Big 12 title game here too when he was with OU. I would take Murray over Dalton all day every day and it is hard to dispute the importance of the QB in this day and age of pass-happy pro football! Plus he is a dangerous runner too. Overall the Cardinals are the better team and this Dallas defense can't stop anyone and that will end up putting a lot of pressure on Dalton in this one to try and trade scores with the Cards. I don't see that happening. 10* ARIZONA |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 5 ET - The Chiefs are off a loss so the whole world seems to be lining up on them here and ignoring some key facts. One, the Bills are a pretty good team in their own right. Two, this game is being played at Buffalo. Three, the Bills are also off a loss and they are angry about it as it was an ugly one at Tennessee. When you consider these factors above it simply makes no sense for this line to have gone from a field goal all the way up to nearly a full six points as of game day morning. Just like we saw last night with the 49ers standing up strong as a home dog after an embarrassing loss, I am confident we will see the same thing tonight with the Bills. One of the Chiefs 4 wins came by 3 points in OT. For the Bills, they were a perfect 4-0 SU their first 4 games and I just don't see them getting blown out here. If they lose I am projecting it to be by 4 or less points but an outright home dog upset like we saw last night with San Francisco would not surprise me either. This Bills team is better than people realize. Yes, Kansas City is a very good team but this is not a fun place to play and the temperature will be holding in the 40s with a good chance of rain throughout this one. All of that favors the home dog as well. 8* BUFFALO |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Sunday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian by nature. That said, it should come as no surprised that I am backing the 2-3 Niners over the 4-1 Rams in this one. In a primetime game especially (when the lights are shining and they know the entire NFL world is watching them), a home dog is going to bring its best effort. This is made even more true when that home dog is facing a hated division rival. The 49ers did sweep the Rams last year so I am well aware of the fact that this is a revenge game for Los Angeles. However, that sweep last year also means that the 49'ers have had the Rams number so to speak too! Note also that all 4 of Los Angeles' wins have come against the NFC East or, as it is more appropriately known, the NFC Least! The combined record of those 4 teams is 4-15-1. The only time Los Angeles faced a tough team was when the Rams faced the Bills in Buffalo. Though they rallied in that game they actually were down huge in that game before the late rally. I like the Niners defense here and also am expecting a huge bounce back from the offense. They'll absolutely be ready here with some positive adjustments after the horrific effort against the Dolphins last week. The 49ers are on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog and get the cash again here. 8* SAN FRANCISCO |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - two weeks ago when this line first came out the bucs were favored by 2.5 points...now the bucs are a 1 point home dog in this match-up...the line made a move after the bucs lost last week to the bears but, keep in mind, tampa bay outgained chicago by nearly 100 yards in that game...in comparing the buccaneers and packers, the bucs have been the more impressive defense early this season...i know rodgers has been the much better qb for green bay than brady has for tampa bay...however, i would not be surprised to see brady come up with a huge performance here...factor that in along with the better defense and home field edge and i feel we have great line value here...yes the packers are undefeated on the season and the tampa bay already has two losses but, with my contrarian way of thinking, that is part of the reason i like this play even more...keep in mind, green bay is 4-0 this season but the teams they have beaten have a combined record of 5-14...the only team with a winning record that the packers have beaten is the saints (currently 3-2 on the season) and they appear to be really down a few notches this season...i am not totally knocking the packers here but just saying this was a very intriguing line to me and, with the movement and the current market perception that is anti-tampa bay and pro-green bay i absolutely love this spot for a home win...8* TAMPA BAY |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +5.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #143 Saturday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 4 ET - No one will want Mississippi State here. After all, everyone just watched them turnover the ball like crazy and score just 2 points against Kentucky. That said, the Bulldogs have no chance here, right? After all, they are facing an Aggies team that just beat Florida and outgained the Gators by a substantial margin in doing so. In typical contrarian fashion, I actually like Mississippi State a ton in this spot. The Bulldogs beat LSU by double digits in their season opener but then laid an egg against Arkansas the very next week. As a result, there is great line value as the Bulldogs want to atone for Razorbacks defeat here as that has been their only home game so far this season. Texas A & M is 2-1 this season but they barely squeaked by Vanderbilt even though they were a 30 point favorite in that game. In fact, each of the Aggies two wins this season have been by 5 or less points. In between those two wins was a blowout loss at Alabama and the Aggies scored just 24 points in that game while Ole Miss put up 48 on the Crimson Tide the very next week. Mississippi State has revenge here for an ugly loss last year which followed 3 straight Bulldogs wins in this series. Historically the Aggies are not known for traveling well nor for coming up big in back to back big games. The home dog, as a result, is absolutely the way to go in this one. The Bulldogs defense allowing just 4.24 yards per play while Texas A & M allowing 6.75 yards per play. That is a big difference in defensive efficiency and certainly is not being properly accounted for by the betting markets in my opinion. 10* Mississippi State |
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10-17-20 | Duke +5.5 v. NC State | 20-31 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #119 Saturday 8* Duke Blue Devils (+) @ NC State Wolfpack @ 3:30 ET - The Blue Devils are off another game marred by turnovers. Yet Duke still won that game by two touchdowns and had a yardage edge of more than 350 yards. I like those kind of numbers as they now get involved in a rivalry game that has seen the dog cover 7 of the last 9. The home team has covered only twice in the last ten meetings! Overall, coach Dave Doeren has led NC State to just 5 covers in their last 14 games as a home favorite in ACC action. The Wolfpack have done a great job of eliminated pressure to their quarterback so far this season but now face a Blue Devils team that already has amassed 18 sacks this season. NC State is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread this season but they have been the beneficiary of bounces for sure and two of their three wins have come by three or less points. I suspect that this one will too and an outright upset from the road dog would certainly not be a complete surprise. Additionally, NC State has North Carolina on deck and that is their biggest rival. The Blue Devils have a bye on deck. From a situational standpoint, this one is excellent and I won't hesitate to back the road dog here. 8* DUKE |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #482 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) vs Buffalo Bills @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian across all sports but this is particularly true in the NFL. That said, I love taking the Titans in a spot like this. They are the ones that forced a cancellation of last week's game due to Covid-19. They are the ones who are 0-3 ATS on the season. Yes, I'll take Tennessee to finally get the cash at the window this week. Even though they are 3-0 SU on the season they have been a favorite all 3 weeks and have failed to cover each game. The Titans 3 games have all been decided by 3 or less points. Now that they are a dog that makes them well worth the investment here. This is especially true with the Bills moving up to a 3.5 point favorite. I know QB Josh Allen has been huge for Buffalo this season but you can bet the Titans are drawing motivation from that and also the fact that they are undefeated and at home and yet they are the underdog here! Tennessee will absolutely "bring it" in this primetime affair and, keep in mind, the Bills have the super bowl champion Chiefs up next on Sunday while the Titans have the 1-4 Texans next up on the docket. Grab the value with the home dog in this one. 10* TENNESSEE |
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10-11-20 | Colts +1 v. Browns | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - Long-time followers know I love to fade line moves in the NFL when the situation is right and that is the case here in my opinion. The Colts were as high as a 3 point favorite in this game and now are a 1 point underdog as of early game day morning. While Cleveland is an improved team this is a horrible spot for them. They are off a road dog upset win at Dallas where they blew a huge lead and then had to hang for dear life against the Cowboys. Now they are back home but have a huge divisional game on deck with Pittsburgh. Yes, the Steelers team that is undefeated and in first place in their division. In looking at this match-up, yes the Colts are also off a road win last week but it was an expected road win. Indianapolis was the favorite and the Bears scored very late in that game. In other words, the Colts not only won the game, they dominated as it nearly ended a 19-3 final. Chicago's TD and 2 point conversion came very very late. The key to the value in this match-up is that the Browns caught a lot of eyes with their win at Dallas last week but the Cowboys defense is atrocious this season. Now Cleveland goes from facing the league's worst defense to facing the #1 defense in the league. The Colts have simply dominated on that side of the ball. Indy has allowed an average of 9.7 points per game the last 3 weeks. The Browns have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game this season. With Cleveland's big game on deck against division leading Pittsburgh, this is the ideal spot to fade them and back the Colts as they look to win for the 9th time in the last 10 meetings between these teams. The Browns had covered just 4 of 15 games overall before upsetting the Cowboys last week. Ideal setup here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-11-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. Steelers | 29-38 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #465 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - The Steelers are undefeated with one of the top defenses in the league. Talk to me when they play somebody with a pulse! I am not saying Pittsburgh is not a good team. I am just saying it is easy to be the #1 defense and have an undefeated record when you have played 3 of the worst teams (and worst offenses) in the league. The Steelers have played the Texans, Broncos, and Giants this season. All 3 of those teams rank at the bottom of the league statistically on offense and are a combined 1-11 this season! The Eagles have played the Rams and 49ers and yes San Francisco is hurting some but so too is Philly and yet they beat them outright on the road Sunday night. The 4 teams the Eagles played this season have a combined record of 7-8-1. That is not earth-shattering by any means but much better than the slate of teams with the combined 1-11 record which is who the Steelers have faced thus far. Also, even with facing a much tougher schedule, the Philly defense ranks just behind Pittsburgh's highly touted defense in terms of yardage allowed per game. The Steelers got a bye they didn't want last week. Teams don't want a bye this early in the season but covid-19 changed Pittsburgh's schedule. They are in a lookahead spot here with the 3-1 Browns on deck plus that is followed by a tough Titans team and then the 3-1 Ravens. So two key division rivals coming up and an undefeated Tennessee team whom the Steelers had already been game planning for before the cancellation happened. Facing an NFC team is not high on the Steelers list of concerns when you look at their upcoming schedule. Perhaps they do win this game but I expect the margin to be a single score and with this line having moved to 7.5 the value is clearly with the road dog in my opinion. Memo to the Steelers for this week: you're finally playing a team with a pulse. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-10-20 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -14 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #352 Saturday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-) vs UTEP Miners @ 7:30 ET - I don't normally lay big points for a top play but this is a rare exception as I expect a thorough beating on the part of the Bulldogs here and a 3-1 Miners team is on the receiving end of it. Yes, UTEP is 3-1 this season but they've played two FCS schools. In their only tough game they were completely annihilated 59-3 by Texas! In their 4 games this season, even with playing a pair of FCS schools too, the Miners are averaging just 18.8 points per game. UTEP simply won't be able to keep with an angry Louisiana Tech team. The Bulldogs were 2-0 prior to last week's beating at the hands of a BYU team that has been annihilating everyone this season. Keep in mind, Louisiana Tech was averaging 48.5 points per game prior to getting hammered by the Cougars last week. This Bulldogs team can put up a ton of points here at home and the Miners simply won't be able to keep up. Last year, Louisiana Tech was up 42-7 before allowing two late TDs after the game was already decided. Look for another dominating win this season and it may end with an even greater margin than last season's 42-21 final. That's because Louisiana Tech is angry after what happened at Brigham Young last week. Also, Texas El Paso does have the attention of the Bulldogs here since the Miners are 3-1 this season. That means they won't be overlooked and that is bad news for UTEP as the home team really pours it on this one and should be fully focused from the opening kickoff too. The spread is -14 on this one but I am very comfortable laying the big points in this mismatch! 10* LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-10-20 | Texas Tech +12 v. Iowa State | 15-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #325 Saturday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Iowa State Cyclones @ 3:30 ET - The Red Raiders are off back to back losses but they never should have lost to Texas as that was an overtime defeat in which they allowed the Longhorns to rally late. Also, in their game last week, Texas Tech had the edge in first downs and in overall yardage but fell short on the scoreboard against Kansas State. Now the Red Raiders get a shot at an Iowa State team that beat them last season for the 4th straight time. Prior to these 4 straight defeats in the series, Texas Tech had won 11 of 14 in this series. The Red Raiders catch the Cyclones off an upset win over Oklahoma last week so the set-up here is perfect. Iowa State is over-valued (and Texas Tech under-valued) based on last week's results. I really like the fact that Texas Tech has a respectable ground game that utilizes multiple running backs. Their offensive line has paved the way for big gains plus they have done a great job in pass protection with just 1 sack allowed on the season! Even though the Red Raiders lost last week, they were done in by a blocked punt, an interception, and two missed field goals). Texas Tech offering line value as a huge dog this week as a result of last week's missed opportunities. Also, QB Bowman is expected back for the Red Raiders here but QB Colombi did play well in his place after he exited last week's game. Looks like Bowman will be back though and that is a big boost for this team. The Cyclones have covered just twice the last seven times they have been a home favorite and this is a particularly bad spot for Iowa State after their huge upset of Oklahoma last week. Grab the big points in this one. 8* TEXAS TECH |
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10-10-20 | Oklahoma -2.5 v. Texas | 53-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Rotation #323 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET - Sooners off back to back losses and unranked. But it was no mistake that the odds makers installed Oklahoma as the favorite in this one. Just because OU has disappointed early does not mean they won't bring their "A game" to the Red River Showdown on Saturday. That said, if the Sooners bring their "A game" and with Texas in a down cycle this season too, which team wins this game? Exactly! Oklahoma was highly regarded for good reason coming into this season. This OU team is capable of plenty and they will respond big this week. While the yardage stats were about equal in the Sooners loss AT Iowa State last week, the Longhorns saw TCU get 25 first downs while UT was held to just 16 first downs and that game was a home game for Texas last week. In their prior game the Horns were lucky to escape Lubbock with a victory as they had to put forth a big rally late and then they won it in overtime. I know the Sooners have not impressed early this season but I especially do not trust this Longhorns team and feel this is the game OU will put it all together. Look for the Sooners to win this rivalry match-up rather handily! 8* OKLAHOMA |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4.5 v. Georgia Tech | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #305 Friday 8* Louisville Cardinals (-) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7 ET - People seem to be remembering Georgia Tech's upset of Florida State in their first game of the season. At least based on the way this line has moved. I disagree with the line move. The Seminoles are just 1-2 on the season now with their only win against Jacksonville State and they lost by 42 to Miami. In other words, the Jackets upset of the Noles looks even less impressive now. Also, since that upset win Georgia Tech has lost each of its last two games and the average margin of defeat was 22.5 points per game. Louisville off a tough, tight loss to a Pittsburgh team with, as usual, a very solid and physical defense. I am not holding that 3 point loss against the Cardinals too much. That Panthers team is tough to face especially at Pittsburgh. That defeat, in fact, is now helping to give us value with the Cards in this one. Louisville started the season with a big win over a Western Kentucky team that is better than people realize and then followed that up with putting up 34 points on Miami. Even though the Cardinals lost that game to the Hurricanes, note that the Canes are now 3-0 on the season. When these teams met two years ago, the Yellow Jackets were still running the triple option and they destroyed Louisville's defense as the Cardinals were enduring some dreadful times then. EACH of these teams is different now and this is payback time for the Cards. They get revenge in a big way here against a turnover-prone Yellow Jackets team that has failed to cover EACH of the last SIX times they have been a home dog. Georgia Tech QB Sims has thrown 3 TDs and 8 INTs. Look for the Cardinals to win this one by double digits. 8* LOUISVILLE |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears +4 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - I know the Bears looked ugly in their home game versus the Colts on Sunday but that was, in my opinion, not unexpected. The head coach of Indianapolis is Frank Reich. He was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles and knows plenty about Nick Foles (Super Bowl winner with Philadelphia a few years ago). The Indianapolis defense is ranked #1 this season and, thanks to Reich's knowledge about Foles and his tendencies the game planning Indy had for that game was top notch. That was part of the reasoning behind why I faded the Bears last week and used the Colts as my top play of the week and it paid off as they dominated. Now I come right back and play ON Chicago as I expect them to bounce back here at home on a short week. The travel situation is certainly tougher for the Buccaneers as they were at home in Tampa Bay plus expended a lot of energy in rallying from a 24-7 late first half deficit against the Chargers. Give TB credit for that rally and I know they are a good football team but this looks like a bad spot for them. The Bears will respond off their first loss of the season. Chicago has allowed an average of only 16 points per game in their two home games this season. I know some pick-sixes have played a role too but, the fact remains, the Buccaneers have allowed more than 30 points now twice in their first four games. I like the Bears defense at home in this one and fully expect a big bounce back effort from the offense here. 8* CHICAGO |
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10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston -6 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #304 Thursday 8* Houston Cougars (-) vs Tulane Green Wave @ 7:30 ET - The big storyline here is that the Cougars have not played a game yet this season while the Green Wave have 3 games under their belt and therefore hold a huge edge. I certainly understand and respect that viewpoint but it doesn't mean I agree with it! Tulane has played a rather weak schedule thus far. The Green Wave did not impress me until they blew out Southern Miss 68-24 two weeks ago after trailing 14-0 in the first quarter. However, that one big win doesn't mean all is fixed for a Tulane team that barely beat South Alabama in their first game this season and then blew a 24-0 lead to a Navy team that is looking more and more like the Midshipmen team that went 3-10 a few seasons ago. Now the Green Wave take a big step up in level of competition to take on a Houston team that can't wait to finally get on the field and play a real football game! The Cougars have been chomping at the bit and they can't wait to get revenge against Tulane! Last year the Green Wave rallied from a 28-14 halftime deficit to beat the Cougars 38-31. Houston hasn't forgotten as they made the mistake of relaxing after piling up a yardage edge of over 200 yards by halftime of that game! Even though the Cougars lost their QB in an off-season transfer, Tune will be under center and he did get significant playing time last season. That is a key here along with the fact that Houston does return nearly all of their starters from last season! This is a good football team and, even though they may show some rust early on, the Cougars will eventually pull away for a dominating home victory. 8* HOUSTON |
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10-05-20 | Falcons +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #279 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:50 ET - Winless teams bring a little extra hunger to games at this stage in the season. Yesterday the winless teams whom were not facing a team that was also winless went a perfect 3-0 ATS as the Bengals, Giants, and Eagles all covered. Also, in the other two match-ups this week involving winless teams it was a battle of teams seeking their first wins as the Broncos faced the Jets Thursday and the Vikings faced the Texans Sunday. In both cases the road team (and the dog) won each game outright. You can see where I am going with this. Yes, the Packers are undefeated on the season and the Falcons are winless but I am riding with the road dog in this one. This game is at Lambeau Field so normally about 3 points added for that. That said, Green Bay opened up as low as a 5-point favorite in this one. I love being a contrarian. That line is saying the 3-0 Packers are only two points better than the winless Falcons on a neutral field. Of course the betting markets are in love with the Pack here and the line is now up to a -7 as of game day morning. I'll gladly grab the points here. The Falcons come in angry as they have blown huge leads (inexcusable!) to the Cowboys and Bears this season. Big dogs left for dead across the sports world are capable of rising up when others least expect it. That was the case with the Eagles last night in the NFL and the Heat in the NBA as well. I sense another shocker here as the Falcons first game of the year was against a tough Seahawks team and then they did build HUGE leads against both Dallas and Chicago before losing those games. The point is that the Falcons are a better team than many are thinking right now and I know what kind of effort they will bring on a Monday Night with the nation walking. Guys show up big for games like this when they are highly motivated and certainly the winless Falcons play this game with a chip on their shoulder. 10* ATLANTA |
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10-04-20 | Eagles +8 v. 49ers | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #277 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - This is more of a play against the 49ers. San Francisco will again be without QB Jimmy Garappolo this week and, on the other side of the ball, are without CB Richard Sherman and 2019 Defensive ROY Nick Bosa. The 49ers are 2-1 to start the season but the 3 teams they have played were a combined 16-31-1 last season. Based on last year's records, this is the toughest team that the Niners have faced yet this season and yet the line keeps climbing and climbing. Yes the Eagles have some injury issues but, as you can see above, so does San Francisco. The fact we can get more than a TD with a Philly team that was up 17-0 versus Washington and lost plus comes into this game very hungry after missing an opportunity for a win (and settling for a tie) versus the Bengals last week is a solid value spot here. The Eagles remain very hungry for that first win of the season and this is a team with a roster full of proud players only a couple seasons removed from a Super Bowl win and still stinging from last year's first round exit from the playoffs. Hungering for their first win they may not get it here but, if they don't, look for the Eagles to fall short by just a single score in this one. Philly defense is allowing just 330.7 ypg this season while the Niners are allowing only 304 ypg. Keep in mind the Eagles had to face the Rams this season. San Francisco has only faced 3 non-playoff teams. That is the story line here as this will be the toughest match-up the Niners have faced and I know the Eagles defense is going to "bring it" in this one too. Nick Mullens had great numbers last week but this isn't the Giants or the Jets defenses that he faced in his first two appearances! By the way, San Francisco has covered just 7 of their last 25 as a home favorite! That is a 28% ATS rate! Getting 7.5 or 8 here is a real bargain in fading the 49ers in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-04-20 | Colts -3 v. Bears | Top | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #251 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (-) @ Chicago Bears @ 4:25 ET - The Bears are 3-0 this season and yet they are an underdog, even though at home, against the 2-1 Colts. As a result, many are calling this line a "mistake" but long-time followers know how I feel about "mistakes" in terms of lines! The fact is that Indianapolis is deservedly the favorite here. The Bears have come back from huge deficits against the Lions and Falcons for two of their three wins this season and they barely held off the hapless Giants for their other victory this season! Those 3 teams that Chicago has barely (and in two cases, fortunately) beaten were a combined 14-33-1 last season! Now they take on a Colts team that looks like the real deal. Yes I know that Indianapolis also has played a rather weak schedule but the Vikings did go 10-6 last season and Jacksonville is better than their early season record would indicate. The road loss to the Jaguars in the season opener for Indy is their only loss so far on the young campaign. Indianapolis outgained the Jags 445-241 in that game but were done in by turnovers. The way I see it the Colts could easily be 3-0 on the season while the Bears aren't too far off from being an 0-3 team this season. We are only in Week 4 of the season and Chicago is already the first team in NFL history with two wins in the same season in games in which they trailed by 16 or more points in the 4th quarter. That won't happen here against a team that ranks as the #1 defense in the NFL so far this season. The Bears scoring defense ranks decently but their yardage defense ranks middle of the pack (15th) in the NFL and again they have faced teams that went 14-33-1 last season. I know Nick Foles is still a solid QB as he showed last week, but the Colts are well coached and Frank Reich (former Eagles offensive coordinator) knows plenty about Foles. Their top-ranked defense will frustrate Foles and the Bears in this one and I look for QB Philip Rivers and company to pull away as this one goes on. 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-04-20 | Chargers +7.5 v. Bucs | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - Now that this line has climbed to as high as a 7.5 as of early Sunday morning, it is "go time" with this one. Rookie Chargers QB Hebert is making his first ever road start but I like what I have seen from this LA offense. In fact statistically they rank much better in yardage than the Bucs. The fact is, based on stats, the Chargers should have more points than the Buccaneers early this season but that is reversed right now and that results in value in spots like this. Last week the Chargers outgained the Browns by 134 yards and had a 26-14 first down edge and yet lost the game outright. That results in line value in a situation such as this particular one and TB doesn't exactly have a good history as a home favorite. In fact, the Buccaneers have covered just 5 of their last 22 when in that role! With the defenses about equal and the Chargers offense averaging 425.7 ypg comparted to just 334 ypg for the Buccaneers, I am grabbing the big dog value in this one. 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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10-03-20 | Auburn v. Georgia -7 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach CFB Rotation #154 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Auburn Tigers @ 7:30 ET – The Bulldogs just might have the best defense in the nation. I know the offense didn’t look sharp in their win over Arkansas last week but they at least got some confidence with their 32-point outburst in the 2nd half of that game (helped by turnovers). After working out the kinks last week against the Razorbacks, look for the Georgia offense to be a little stronger this week and, again, there is no questioning how good this Dawgs defense is! As for Auburn, though they won their game against Kentucky by a double digit margin last week, they were quite fortunate! The Tigers actually were outgained by the Wildcats by a margin of 60 yards. Auburn was fortunate to have a 3-0 turnover edge and that helped set them up on a short field for some late scoring. The Tigers truly benefited throughout the game as every key call and bounce of the ball seemed to go their way. With Auburn off that deceiving final score, there is excellent line value here on the Bulldogs as I am projecting a win by a double digit margin here. Georgia has won 6 of its last 7 games both SU and ATS plus the home team has covered 10 of the last 13 games between these teams. Having home edge and the much better defense and an offense that built up some momentum with last week’s performance in the 2nd half, the Bulldogs are the play here in a game they should win big as they wear down Auburn as the game goes on. Lay the points. 10* GEORGIA |
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10-03-20 | Baylor v. West Virginia +1.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach CFB Rotation #118 Saturday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) vs Baylor Bears @ Noon ET – This is a tough spot for Baylor. They are playing just their 2nd game of the season and first road game. They have a first year head coach and missed a lot of valuable time when spring practice schedules were disrupted by the pandemic. Yes, the Bears did roll to a big win on the scoreboard in their first game but that was against a bad Kansas team. Also, Baylor only outgained the Jayhawks by 24 yards so the huge margin of victory was quite deceiving. Neal Brown is in his 2nd year as head coach of the Mountaineers. This is a West Virginia team that returns quite a lot of experience from last year’s team and will be extra motivated to bounce back at home this week after losing their Big 12 opener by a two TD margin at Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers have revenge on their minds here as they lost at Baylor last season. I like the defense of West Virginia and they also returned 8 starters on offense (including QB Doege) this season. Look for the home team to improve to 6-3 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these Big 12 foes. The more experienced team and in their 2nd year under their head coach’s new systems, etc compared to a Baylor team that will have some early season growing pains under 1st year head coach Aranda. Grab the value here with the small home dog. 8* WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - Do you think the odds makers didn't know about the QB situation for the Broncos? Or that they were clueless about everything when they set this line in the -2 or -2.5 range on Denver? In fact, a few days ago this line had the Broncos favored by 3 points and then now they are a 2-point underdog? Long-time followers know how I feel about line moves like this and I'll absolutely grab the value here with the Broncos after a 5-point line swing! The fact is both these teams have injuries on both sides of the ball and it is an ugly match-up as each team is 0-3 to start the season. Of course many will argue that the Jets have the home field edge but, again, the odds makers knew where this game was being played when they made the line! I expect QB Rypien to have a solid start for the Broncos against a bad Jets defense. The fact he got some work in the last game and threw a pick on his final pass (after 8 straight completions) is actually a good thing. If he gone 9 for 9 with a TD pass he might have lost focus here. That interception, which did not cost the Broncos the game by the way, was actually the best thing that could have happened to him. Watch this Denver team come into East Rutherford fully focused on both sides of the ball and get their first win of the season. Keep in mind, the Jets haven't even been close this season. New York has lost all 3 games by a double digit margin and their average margin of defeat is 19 points. The Broncos lost last week was their first ugly one. They lost their first two games by a COMBINED 7 points. Both teams have struggled early this season as their 0-3 records indicate BUT the Broncos have been the more competitive team and we'll see that again in this one. I'll gladly take the points here. 10* DENVER |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #490 Monday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - Two very strong teams but the Ravens have won 14 regular season games in a row SU and are at home for this game and have revenge from last year's loss at Kansas City and have the much better defense in this match-up. Indeed, even though the Chiefs have not allowed a lot of points this season their defense statistically (based on yardage allowed) comes into this week ranked poorly. The Ravens defense comes into this week ranked as one of the best in the NFL and that was the case last season as well. By the way, Chiefs ranked in middle of pack defensively last year. KC wins games with their offense and, also, their defense is known to not travel as well. The Chiefs D is known for being tougher when at home. That said, I really like the Ravens in this key early season match-up and possible AFC Championship preview. The better D, the home field, the revenge factor, and Baltimore is on an 11-1 ATS run. The Ravens have quite a solid offense as well even though the Chiefs get more of the hype. That said, we'll fade the hype and lay the small number to have a highly motivated small home favorite in this one. This is a statement game for the home team against the defending Super Bowl champs. 10* BALTIMORE |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #488 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - I know these teams had identical 13-3 records last season but didn't it seem like almost every break imaginable went the Packers way last year? That type of "magic" is, of course, unlikely to be repeated again this year and, in fact, things usually play out in opposite fashion after a year like that. I know Green Bay is already 2-0 this season but they beat a Vikings team that has some major issues (how about that performance, coming off a loss, against the Colts last week?) and the Packers other win was against a bad Lions team. The Saints won in week 1 against a Bucs team many feel has a great shot at a super bowl run with Brady now at QB. Now off a loss in week 2 against a Raiders team that felt like it had to lift the city of Las Vegas onto its shoulders as it opened up the new stadium Monday night, look for New Orleans to respond off defeat. The Saints were on a 12-3 ATS run prior to the loss to the Raiders. Also, I like the fact this line was a -6 when it opened and it has crashed all the way down to a -3. I am aware of the injury situations for both teams and this line move is simply not justified in my opinion. Saints at home and off a loss and taking on a Packers team that hasn't been truly tested yet this season. I like this set-up a ton and will lay the short number. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos +6.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #484 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - This line has shot up from a 3.5 to as high as a 6.5 and, of course, that is mostly based on Broncos QB Lock being out for this one. However, Driskell actually played quite well in relief of Lock and that was against a tough Steelers defense. Now he takes on a Bucs team that was one of the worst teams in the league last year against the pass. Also, I am not sold just yet on Tampa Bay. They have all this hype now because of Tom Brady at QB but last time I checked this is still a team that didn't have a winning record last season. Now they are on the road against a Broncos team that finished up last season on a red hot streak in home games. I know they are 0-2 this season but Denver played a pair of tough teams and lost the games by a combined total of just 7 points. Look for the Broncos to be in this game all the way. Denver has a respectable defense and, even without a stadium full of fans the Broncos have an extra home field edge do the elevation there. That is something visitors are not as use to. That is part of the reason the Broncos have failed to cover only TWICE the last DOZEN times they have been a home dog. The Buccaneers were helped by 4 Carolina turnovers last week and they lost their opening game (and only road game) to the Saints thus far. I feel this TB team is way over-rated and an outright upset here would not surprise me which is why I am elevating this play (at plus the points) to my highest level. 10* DENVER |
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09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles -4 | 23-23 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - Third time will be the charm for the Eagles (and for me). I would not be touching this game if the line had moved 2.5 points the other way but the way this line moved we have strong value with the home favorite in this one. The Eagles opened as high as 6.5 in many books. If the line had gone to a -9 then of course I am not touching them. But the line went the other way to a -4 and the Eagles are a in a great situation here at home and off a home loss. Yes each team is 0-2 to the start the season and I understand Bengals QB Joe Burrow has looked good thus far. But are people forgetting Cincinnati went 2-14 last season while Philadelphia won 4 straight games to close the season out with a winning record and a playoff berth? These teams have not changed that much that they are now essentially equal! Keep in mind teams are normally assessed about 3 points for their home field edge. I know the home field edge is different early this season because of the whole covid-19 situation but the betting markets pushing this line to a 4 are very close to saying the Bengals and Eagles line would be almost a pick'em on a neutral field. I certainly don't see it that way. Philly is angry and has 3 turnovers in each of their first two games. Cincinnati played teams that went a combined 11-21 last season. I know the Eagles also matched up with a weak team (Washington) in game one but they gave that game away after amassing a 17-0 lead. Last week they played a tough Rams team that still has plenty of talent. I think the markets are all wrong with their current assessment of these teams and the Eagles offer great line value at this low number. The Eagles are healthier on the offensive line and defensive line than they've been in their other games early this season and they will win the wars in the trenches in this one. This is a VERY angry and proud team that will show up at home for this one and I see them winning by at least a full TD. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-26-20 | NC State v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #454 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8 ET - This line was as high as a 10.5 earlier this week and now fell to as low as a -6. The fact it is below the key number of 7 as of early game day morning is leading to excellent line value in this match-up. I know NC State has an advantage in terms of having a game under their belt but they just allowed 42 points to Wake Forest. The Wolfpack hung on for the 3-point win but certainly were not overly impressive on the defensive side of the ball as the Demon Deacons piled up 32 first downs in that game. Now they take on a Virginia Tech team that returns nearly the entire defense from last season. The Hokies are undervalued here because some expect them to struggle in their first game without defensive coordinator Bud Foster. I definitely do not see it that way and I also like the fact that a lot of players got valuable experience last season by being "thrown into the fire". Enduring those growing pains last season has the Hokies positioned well for success this season. Justin Fuente is a solid coach and this is the best-looking roster he has had since the 2016 season and Virginia Tech won the ACC Coastal Division that season. History is certainly on the side of the Hokies as they have won 4 straight meetings with NC State and each of the last 3 were double digit wins. Virginia Tech can't wait to get back on the field as they were 8-3 last season before losing their season finale to Virginia and then the Hokies also lost their bowl game. They have waited a long time to again taste victory and they'll be ready here. As for the Wolfpack, they had actually lost 6 straight games to close out last season and barely hung on for 3-point win last week. NC State won't be so fortunate this week as they drop to 1-7 SU their last 8 games. Hokies roll to double digit win. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
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09-26-20 | Texas State +20 v. Boston College | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #451 Saturday 8* Texas State Bobcats (+) @ Boston College Eagles @ 6 ET - The Eagles are off a win at Duke but, though they won that game by 20 points, the yardage stats were nearly equal. That is helping to give some value with this line and, from a situational standpoint, I feel we have tremendous value here. The Bobcats are already rounding into mid-season form. Yes, it may be early in the season for many teams but this will be the 4th game already for Texas State. After two tight losses to open up the season, the Bobcats got a huge confidence boost with a road win at UL-Monroe last week. Keep in mind, Texas State lost the game prior to that in double-OT and then their season-opening win was an impressive hard-fought loss by a single possession to a solid SMU team. The Bobcats have a respectable offense with two QB's equally capable of leading the team to big points. With Boston College off an ACC win and having another big ACC game versus North Carolina on deck, I just can't see the Eagles being fully focused here. The Bobcats are in their 2nd year under head coach Jake Spavital and they already look much better in the 2nd year of his systems. Look for them to play the role of "scrappy underdog" in this one and, as a result, it will be tough for the Eagles to build up much of a margin in this one. 8* TEXAS STATE |
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09-26-20 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -6.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #416 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 3:30 ET - Never over-react to just one game but that is exactly what the betting markets have done in this case. A line that was nearly a 10 has dropped to under the key number of 7 and I won't hesitate to get involved here. Yes, I am aware of the Cowboys QB injury situation but they have options at the position as they proved in surviving a scare from Tulsa last week. That tight win over the Golden Hurricane is helping to give us line value this week because it was unimpressive. However, it was still a win and OSU allowed just 7 points in the game. I know West Virginia is off a bye and they won their first game of the season 56-10 but they played an FCS school, Eastern Kentucky, who has now lost their first two games by a combined score of 115-10. No the Colonels didn't play Alabama in their first game, they played Marshall and lost 59-0 to the Thundering Herd. The point is that Eastern Kentucky is not a good barometer for an FBS team to test themselves against. The Mountaineers take a big step up in level of competition this week in this Big-12 match-up and Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU/ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Cowboys, of course, are not happy with their performance in last week's win over Tulsa and will be much better this week as they roll to a big home win. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach CFB Rotation #455 Friday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET – Why would the odds makers open up UTSA as a favorite of slightly less than a TD against a Middle Tennessee State team that has been blasted by a combined score of 89 to 14 in their first two games? Precisely! That -6.5 on the Roadrunners looked quite enticing and sure enough the early action has been on UTSA and has driven the line up to the key number of 7 which makes this an easy choice for me. I am happy to grab the +7 with a hungry underdog that takes a step down in level of competition here against a team that is a bit over-valued right now. First off the Roadrunners are 2-0 but faced an FCS team, Stephen F Austin, last week and a Texas State team that is annually a bad team and coming off a 3-9 season last year. The Roadrunners are on an 8-16 ATS run as a home favorite. Also, these teams have met twice in recent years and the road team won each game. Also, UTSA was originally scheduled to face Memphis but then the Tigers covid-19 situation changed all that so now bring in MTSU. This is a match-up the Runners may think they want but I have a strong feeling this will be upset city. The Blue Raiders are not a great team but they are certainly much better than the performances they have shown against Army and Troy. The key is that MTSU, in my opinion, is the best team that UTSA will have faced so far this season while the Roadrunners are the weakest team the Blue Raiders have faced this season. Don’t let the records fool you here. Great situation for an angry underdog playing with a chip on its shoulder in this one. 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:20 ET - The first lines on this one were as low as a "pick'em". Keep in mind this is a match-up of teams featuring an 0-2 Dolphins team and a 1-1 Jaguars team that did win their only home game. In other words, it is "too easy" right? Just take the home team to win and, of course, that is what everyone is doing as the line has been driven up to a -3 on Jacksonville as of early gameday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the line move. Dolphins hungry for that first win of that season and wrapped up last season on a 3-2 ATS run their last 5 road games. Their first road game this season was at New England and they failed to cover. However, though the Jaguars might be improving some they are not the Patriots! Also, the Jags are now 3-7 SU their last 10 games overall. I'll grab the points here. 10* MIAMI |
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09-21-20 | Saints -5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #289 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - Interesting that the Raiders barely beat the Panthers last week and the Saints were quite dominant against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and then when you look at yesterday's results. Tampa Bay really "took it" to Carolina yesterday. You can see where I am going with this. I just feel that the Saints are the much better team than the Raiders and that this is especially true at this early stage of the season. New Orleans was better defensively last week and last season in comparison with the Raiders. I know this is the first game in the new stadium here in Las Vegas where I live but it is not the same atmosphere that it would have been had fans been allowed to attend. That said, it is not a huge home field edge really and with the Saints having opened up at nearly a full 7 point favorite and now being available at -5.5 I won't hesitate to step in. The Raiders, though off a win in Week 1, wrapped up last season on a 1-6 run. Also, 6 of their 9 losses last seen came by a margin of 18 or more points! The Saints are off a 13-3 season but very hungry after getting bounced in their first game of the post-season last year. In other words, this is a team on a mission and I don't see them losing a game like this. Not at this early stage of the season at least and based on the Raiders penchant for blowout losses I am comfortable laying the -5.5 here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #288 Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - This is a contrarian play. But being a contrarian is perhaps most important in the NFL over any other sport in the league. Everyone is enamored with the Patriots here because they are an underdog which is so rare with a Bill Belichick team. Well this New England team has problems. Yes they beat the Dolphins at home in Week 1 but who wouldn't beat the Dolphins at home in Week 1? Now Cam "full of himself" Newton is going to visit Seattle and get crushed by a Seahawks defense that honestly got caught looking ahead to this game and were fortunate to get past the Falcons last week. Oftentimes when team lookahead they lose but Russell Wilson completed a ridiculous 31 of 35 passes and wouldn't allow that to happen as they escaped defeat at Atlanta. Over 300 yards passing and 4 touchdowns for Wilson as he led them to victory. Now a Patriots defense that lost a couple of key players to the Lions over the off-season is going to try and stop Wilson and company on the road. It won't happen. What will happen is that the Seahawks defense plays much better at home than they did on the road. This is the norm for Seattle. The Seahawks had a rough year defensively last year and are anxious to make up for that here and will be fired up for their home opener and a Sunday night game. Seattle has gone 13-4 ATS its last 17 home openers. The Patriots are just 5-5 (including playoffs) since their 8-0 start to last season. Also, Brady now plays in Tampa Bay in case you haven't heard. In all seriousness though, the oddsmakers set the opening line on this one at Seahawks -3.5 for a reason and I look for a home win by double digits in this one as the much-weakened Patriots get exposed in their first true test after the Tom Brady era. 8* SEATTLE |
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09-19-20 | Navy v. Tulane -6 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #134 Saturday 8* Tulane Green Wave (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ Noon ET - The situation at Navy is a mess. It is about more than just the embarrassing 55-3 loss to BYU to open the season (by the way, that was a HOME game for the Midshipmen). The fact is that Navy's offensive line lost key players from last season and, for an option team, the blocking patterns of your offensive line and how they function together are critical. Already without their star QB from last season, now the next guy up (Perry Olsen) has indicated he is transferring out of the program. The QB position is critical for any football team of course but especially for one running the triple option like the Midshipmen do. That said, the offense is a mess and lets not forget the defense got thrashed by the Cougars in their season opener. As for Tulane, yes they are off a non-covering win but they rallied to get it and that was on the road. After playing much better in the 2nd half than the 1st they have some momentum here. Speaking of rallies, the Green Wave rallied multiple times after digging a 24-0 hole at Navy last season but ultimately lost the game on a late field goal. Tulane has revenge here as a result and now they are at home for this one. I liked the way the Green Wave defense responded after a poor 1st half on the road in their season opener. Additionally, their offense got a little more comfortable as the game went on and this is a unit that averaged 33 points per game last season. With Navy's offense a mess right now, the Midshipmen won't be able to keep up in this one as it turns into a home blowout. Like the line move from an opener of 8 down to as low as a 6 for this one. 8* TULANE |
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09-14-20 | Steelers -5.5 v. Giants | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ New York Giants @ 7:15 ET - Continuity matters in a season like this that is being played without a normal off-season to say the least. Not only that, no pre-season either. That said, can a situation be any worse than that of the Giants. They brought in a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator. New York begins the season by taking on a Steelers team that gets a big boost with the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger under center. The Pittsburgh offense stumbled badly in 2019 without him but were solid in 2018 with him. As for the Giants, a number of concerns along the offensive line and I expect the Steelers to dominate this game in the trenches. New York will struggle to establish the run as a result and this will turn Giants QB Jones into a sitting duck for the Steelers blitz-heavy packages. This one can (and should) get ugly and I am laying the points with the road team. Yes it may seem a bit much but it is justified. In fact, the Giants are on a 1-10 ATS run as home dogs! Also, the Steelers are on a 6-2 ATS run against NFC opponents and New York has failed to cover eight straight home openers! This one turns into a road rout. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +2 | 17-20 | Win | 101 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #478 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Speaking of hype machines, there tends to no team getting more positive press coming into each season then America's Team. This season is no different and the Cowboys once again are penned by many as a team to beat this season. I know they now have McCarthy at coach but I think it is an organizational issue in Dallas that trickles down from the top level down through the staff and players and the results are not pretty. So now this Cowboys team that lost 5 of its last 7 road games is favored on the road against a Rams team playing with a chip on its shoulder after a disappointing 2019. I am not done yet. Dallas had 3 road wins last season and they came against teams with the following "impressive" records: 4-12, 3-12-1, 3-13. Super Bowl contenders, eh? Dallas first needs to prove they can win a road game against a decent football team! They never did it last season and I challenge them to do it right away here in Week 1 against a Rams team that has revenge from a 44-21 loss at Dallas last season. What happened in that game? LA was off back to back divisional wins and had just beaten Seattle 28-12 plus had another divisional game on deck at San Francisco. Scheduling situations don't get much worse than that. In other words don't let last season's result between these teams fool you. Rams are fully focused here and that is bad news for an overly hyped Cowboys team that can't beat a good team on the road to save their life. I'll gladly grab the home dog here. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints -3.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - Remember all the hype last season about the Browns? Then Cleveland began the season with a 43-13 loss in their season opener on their way to a 2-6 start. The Browns also lost their final 3 games of the season to finish 6-10 for the year. Now certainly I am not saying the Bucs are down so low that they are on the same level as Cleveland. But what I am saying is sometimes playing against the "hype machine" is one of the best things you can do. TB is so over-rated right now in my opinion because of Brady and Gronkowski. Let me remind some people of some facts about this Buccaneers team. Tampa Bay is off a losing season, ranked 24th in the NFL for rushing yardage, near the bottom of the NFL in both punt returns and kick returns, 30th in the NFL for pass defense and 29th in the NFL for scoring defense. Now they are very small 3.5 point dogs ON THE ROAD against a Super Bowl contender coming off a 13-3 season and very hungry after losing their playoff game in overtime. The Saints have covered 11 of their last 14 games overall and this line was up closer to 6 and now is down near a field goal. That is big time value especially when you consider that Tampa Bay has covered just 3 of its last dozen games. I really enjoy watching over-hyped teams get blasted and am confident that we will see exactly that right here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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09-13-20 | Eagles -5.5 v. Washington Football Team | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #463 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington @ 1 ET - Hungry football team here with the Eagles off the disappointing playoff loss. So here you have a playoff-caliber team taking on a Washington team that doesn't even know what its name is. Washington also is having off-field issues relating to its front office and truly this is an organization that I have pegged as the worst team in the NFC. Washington is on a 1-7 ATS run in their last 8 home openers and the Eagles are confident when facing this team. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and this line (currently 5.5 and having dropped from opening at -7) offers great line value. The Eagles average margin of victory in those 5 wins is 13 points per game. Philadelphia has covered 6 of its last 7 as a road favorite in divisional action. Washington, against NFC East foes, is on an ugly 4-15 ATS run. The much better team rolls to a double digit win here as they get rid of the bitter taste of last year's playoff defeat at the hands of the Seahawks. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-12-20 | Tulane -10.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #429 Saturday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave (-) @ South Alabama Jaguars @ 7:30 ET - Long time followers know I am a contrarian and so, of course, this match-up caught my eye. You have Tulane laying double digits on the road against a South Alabama team that just won outright at Southern Miss last week. Huge mistake by the odds makers, right? Long time followers also know how I feel about that! The fact is that the old expression "on any given Sunday" that is talked about in NFL is also true in College Football. It is the "anything can happen" that happened for the Jaguars against the Golden Eagles but this is still a South Alabama team with a lot of issues and that went just 5-19 the past two seasons combined. As for Tulane, they crushed that same Southern Miss team in their bowl game last year to cap off a winning season. The Green Wave are a much better team than they used to be and have some true game-breakers at the RB position. I look for Tulane to run all over the Jaguars in this one. South Alabama still not use to facing the option attack and are not a very good team defensively. They allowed over 300 yards rushing last season against Georgia Southern (option team) and the Green Wave variation will prove even tougher to stop. Also, the Jags QB did throw two picks last week and was seen limping off the field late in the game. I know he is "good to go" here from what I am hearing but neither one of those things is a good sign and I just can't see South Alabama stopping this Green Wave offense and, therefore, it turns into a road rout. 10* TULANE |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #452 Thursday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Houston Texans @ 8:20 ET - Continuity is always very important in the NFL from year to year. It helps a team get a season off to a good start. There has probably never been a year that it has been more important then 2020! With all the issues relating to the pandemic this year it has certainly been an unusual off season, training camp, etc. That said, I give a big edge to the Chiefs here and am happy to grab the line value here as well. This line was in the 10.5 range when it opened but has now dropped to as low as a -9 as of early game day morning. I'll grab the value and lay the points here. Keep in mind, the Texans made some changes at the skill positions of RB and WR. How quickly will everyone "click" and "mesh" and this could be even more problematic when you are on the road and playing in the rain (which is expected throughout the game at Arrowhead tonight). Also, how confident can the Texans be here. They had a 24-0 lead in the post-season game and inexplicably got outscored by a 44 point margin the rest of the way. Yes, JJ Watt is back for this game but he can't play defense all by himself for Houston. I also don't necessarily agree with whom they have at defensive coordinator now either. 40 year old Anthony Weaver will be the one play-calling here and trying to stop Patrick Mahomes and company. What a way to start your career as a DC for the first time! In any event I know Romeo Crennel, former DC, is still on the staff as assistant head coach but he couldn't figure out how to stop the Chiefs either! I just don't see the Texans as being able to get enough stops here to stay within single digits here and don't be surprised if their offense has some miscues early considering some of their personnel changes. 10* KANSAS CITY |
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09-10-20 | UAB +14.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #393 Thursday 10* Top Play UAB Blazers (+) @ Miami Hurricanes @ 8 ET - The Blazers already played last week and they defeated Central Arkansas. The fact they gave up a lot of points in the 45 to 35 win is deceiving. Just look at the yardage stats for the real story as Central Arkansas certainly didn't do much. Now, this week of course it is a major step up in class for UAB as they travel to Miami. However, this line is much different too as a result and the Hurricanes are over-priced in my opinion. The last two times the Blazers faced teams from Power 5 conferences they lost badly both times but the yardage starts told a different story. That is similar to the value we're seeing because of last week's "unimpressive win" for UAB. The point is that value gets baked into the lines as a result and especially after the markets start pushing them around. With this one now climbing up to as high as a 14.5 as of gameday morning, it is go time for me. The Blazers have a lot of talent and a lot of returning seniors still hungry to put last season's disappointing ending to the season behind them. Remember they lost in the CUSA Championship game plus lost their bowl game. The Hurricanes probably do find a way to win this game but they are working in a transfer QB (King) and could be a little overconfident too as they take on a team from Conference USA. Also, the game under the belt edge is one that should not be ignored. Give me the big points. 10* UAB |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy | Top | 55-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #243 Monday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars (-) @ Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - This line is right around a pick'em so the first thing I want to mention is that if you can not get BYU at plus points then I would recommend playing the money line with Cougars rather than laying points. Of course line movement could impact that decision but just keep that in mind when you go make this wager. Many saw Army, another option team, blast Middle Tennessee on Saturday afternoon and are likely siding with Navy here under the same angle that a defense will struggle badly against the option attack. However, there are some key factors here that have me thinking contrarian to that. One is that, unlike the Blue Raiders, BYU has a strong defense and they return the majority of their top tacklers from last season's defense. Another factor here is that Navy lost their QB from last season and he was truly a special performer, a true star for the program, and is a key loss. Overall, when you look at returning personnel from last season, it is a huge edge for the Cougars in this one in terms of experience level on the roster compared to that of the Midshipmen. Additionally, even though this game is being played at Navy the Midshipmen won't have the usual crowd edge and plus it is a night game so it is no problem for the body clocks of BYU coming from out west. Sometimes when a team like the Cougars has an early game (Noon ET) back east those types of situations can be a problem. Again, no issue with that here and Brigham Young's offense battled a lot of injuries last season but look for the now much healthier unit to surprise some people with how successful it will be early this season. 10* BYU |
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02-02-20 | 49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 177 h 27 m | Show |
Super Bowl Slaughter - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 San Francisco 49ers (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET Sunday - The Chiefs have won and covered 8 games in a row. However, Kansas City has allowed an average of 25.3 points their last 3 games. The 49ers, conversely, have allowed an average of just 17 points their last 3 games. KC can be run on and San Francisco can and will emphasize the ground game here. That will help limit QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs scoring opportunities in this game as the Niners can use their ground game to control the tempo a bit in this game. The 49ers outrushed KC by over 100 yards in their meeting last season. San Francisco allowed 125 rushing yards in a recent game versus Seattle. However, in their other 4 recent games they have allowed an average of 61 rushing yards per game. Conversely the Chiefs have allowed 97 rushing yards per game their last 4 games. The Niners this season are 5-0 SU and ATS in their 5 games this season with lines ranging from -3 to +3. Can the Chiefs stay hot after scoring so many points in consecutive game? History says no. Kansas City is 4-9 ATS when they enter a game having scored 30 or more points in 3 straight games. The Niners have averaged running for 200 yards per game their past 3 games. San Francisco has scored an average of 32 points per game their last 6 games. The better defense and better ground game has me siding with the 49ers here. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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01-19-20 | Titans +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #313 Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 3:05 ET - One look at the box score tells you the Titans won with "smoke and mirrors" last week at Baltimore. However, this is as much a play against Kansas City as it is a play on Tennessee. More on that in a moment. First, more about the Titans. You can't discount how much momentum means to a football team and the fact is Tennessee is rolling with confidence right now. Why? Well a team that started the season 2-4 has now won 9 of 12. Also, the Titans are on the road for the 4th straight week but who cares? You think they are going to fall flat or get tired in a game in which they have a chance to go to the Super Bowl? Of course not. Plus Tennessee is 5-0 SU in their last 5 road games. Now, about going to the Super Bowl, lets talk about Kansas City and specifically Andy Reid. I have been in this business for two decades now. Long-time followers know my family roots are in Rickenbach, PA. Google it. Small town area about 65 miles northwest of Philadelphia. In any event I follow the Eagles VERY closely. What does that have to do with this play? Andy Reid started coaching the Eagles two decades ago in 1999. I have closely followed his career every since. With BOTH the Eagles and with the Chiefs, the fact is he can not win the big game. He has had 6 chances in a Conference Championship Game and won just once! That was the lone season he took Philadelphia to the Super Bowl in 2004 and they lost to the Patriots. So he is 1-6 SU in the Biggest Games of his career and yet here his KC team is laying 7.5 points to a Titans team that seems to be a team of destiny this season. As bad as Tennessee was statistically last week against the Ravens, they did run the ball very well and they will pound the Chiefs on the ground in this game too. While Kansas City has given plenty of bulletin board material to the Titans defense for this game as their receivers are so good nobody can cover them according to the Chiefs. The Titans have allowed just 15.4 points per game in their last 5 road games. The Chiefs have allowed 21 points or more in 6 of 9 home games this season. KC may find a way to pull this game out but, if they do, I expect it to be by 3 or 4 points (and 7 at the most). With 7 plus the hook available (as of Thursday evening), I am pulling the trigger right now on this one. 10* TENNESSEE |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
The Big One - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #283 Monday 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 8 PM ET in National Championship @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, LA - I have plenty of respect for both of these teams of course but this is simply too many points for LSU to be laying in a game that Clemson certainly has a great shot at winning outright. First off, about the points, Clemson's win over Ohio State to get here was the FIRST TIME this season that they allowed more than 20 points in a game and yet they still allowed only 23 in that game. In their first 12 games this season, Clemson allowed 14 points or less in 11 of the 12 games! To put that in proper perspective lets compare that to their opponent here. LSU has allowed 37 points or more 4 times this season and also allowed 28 points in 2 other games. That means that in nearly half their games this season LSU has allowed 28 points. Again, that is something the Clemson defense has not done a SINGLE time this season. Now I know LSU has a prolific offense but you can see why I like the defense-first dog in this match-up. The Clemson defense rates a bigger edge than the LSU offense rates when comparing these two teams. Why? Because the Clemson offense is very impressive too! They have averaged just a field goal less on offense while their defense has allowed 10 points less per game. In terms of the experience factor, I like that Clemson has been here so frequently in recent seasons. It definitely rates an edge for their program in that regard in this match-up. In terms of long-term trending here. When LSU enters a game on an ATS winning streak (as a favorite) of 3 or more games they have gone 3-8 ATS. As for Clemson, as a neutral field underdog of 3.5 to 7 points, they have gone 10-3 ATS. I expect an upset but will grab the points for extra insurance in case LSU squeaks out the SU win. 10* CLEMSON |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers -3.5 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #308 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 6:40 ET - Seattle took advantage of a wounded Eagles team and even inflicted further injury upon them by knocking Carson Wentz out of the game in last week's playoff victory at Philadelphia. Whether playing dirty or not it was an ugly way for Seattle to win a game and they now face a much tougher test this week. The Seahawks face a Packers team that is much healthier than the Eagles were and that also is coming off a bye week. Keep in mind, Seattle had lost 3 of their last 4 games prior to knocking off a badly depleted Philadelphia team last week. Also, the Seahawks have been held to 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 road games. The Packers, on the other hand, have scored 21 points or more in all 8 of their home games this season. Green Bay has averaged 25.6 points per game as a host this season and we've got a small line to work with here. Seattle is a long-term 4-8 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 14 or less points. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS when off a win by 3 or less points. The Packers are 5-0 ATS when off a non-covering win. 8* GREEN BAY |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #306 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Houston Texans @ 3:05 ET - The Texans were fortunate to rally back from a 13-0 deficit last week and eventually beat the Bills in overtime. However, Houston was fortunate that Buffalo made key mistakes that also played a role in the comeback plus the Texans were at home for that game. This is a much different situation this week. Now Houston is on the road and facing a Kansas City team which is off a bye week and also has won 6 straight games. The Chiefs are playing this game with revenge from a rare home loss to the Texans earlier this season but, revenge or not, Kansas City is destined for a blowout win here. KC has outscored the opponents by an average score of 28 to 11 during this 6-game winning streak. Their defense has been fantastic and the Texans have been at the other end of the spectrum in terms of how they finished up the season. Houston was again outgained in last week's playoff win over the Bills and the Texans have now been outgained in 6 of their past 8 games. The Texans haven't just been getting nipped in the stats department either. Houston was outgained by an average of nearly 100 yards per game in those 6 games. The Texans are 1-6 ATS this season when coming off an ATS cover. When the Chiefs are off back to back covers as a favorite they have gone 9-3 ATS including 3-1 ATS this season. The KC defense has held 3 of their last 4 opponents under 300 yards of offense. Also, the Houston defense has allowed 26.6 points per game in its last 8 games. There is simply no comparison in terms of the way these two defenses have been playing of late and the Chiefs also have the rest edge and home field edge. 10* KANSAS CITY |
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01-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. 49ers | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:35 ET - That was a very strong Saints team which the Vikings defeated last week. Of course the 49ers have the rest edge here but I like what I have been seeing from this Minnesota team down the stretch run while the same can not be said for the 49ers. The Niners went 3-2 SU in their final 5 games of the season but all 3 wins came by 5 or less points. San Francisco is on a 1-3-1 ATS run in home games. The Vikings are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games and only 1 of the 4 losses came by more than 7 points. Both teams have solid defenses but San Francisco did give up 20 points or more in 8 of it last 9 games. The Vikings allowed 24 points or less in 14 of 17 games this season! Given those numbers, an outright upset here would not surprise and certainly value is on our side in having the full TD with the underdog. Long-term, San Francisco has covered just 5 of last 20 home games when they are a favorite. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* MINNESOTA |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +1 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #148 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:40 ET - The Eagles have that "feel" of a team of destiny again this year just like their magical run to the Super Bowl two years ago. Now, the fact is that once they run into one of the true powers in this season's loaded NFC they are likely to be in trouble. For example, a team like the Saints or the 49'ers. However, against the Seahawks and playing at home the Eagles absolutely should advance. Yes they are banged up at the wide receiver position but they are expected to have Ertz back at TE for this one plus they have a solid TE in Goedert as well. Plus at WR others have stepped up. That is why, even without Ertz, the Eagles Carson Wentz still threw for nearly 300 yards last week. Keep in mind this is a team without its top receivers. Wentz has done an incredible job and Miles Sanders and Boston Scott have been huge out of the backfield. Scott also caught 4 passes for 84 yards in the playoff-clinching win over the Giants last week. Now of course the Seahawks are a much better team than the Giants but to close the season the Eagles faced 4 straight must-win games (including a very talented Cowboys team) and all 4 were against divisional foes that wanted nothing more than to knock them off. Resilient Philly survived it all even with all the injuries on offense. I certainly respect the Seahawks offense but this is a team that lost 3 of its last 4 games plus Seattle allowed an average of 27 points per game over their final 5 games. Philadelphia, on the other hand allowed an average of only 13.3 points per game over their final 6 home games. The Eagles are very tough at home and when the Seahawks beat them here in Philly in November it was a deceiving final score. Philly had 9 more firstdowns than Seattle in that contest. The Seahawks were outgained by 371 yards over their last 4 games. The Eagles have outgained their opponents in 4 straight games by 339 yards. Philly continues to find a way to win games and I don't see Seattle winning again here. Its payback time and the Eagles are loaded with confidence right now and their defense doesn't get as much respect as it should. They're going to give Russell Wilson and company trouble in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-04-20 | Titans +5 v. Patriots | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #143 Saturday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Patriots are at home and laying a short number in the playoffs and, of course, have the incredible long-term numbers that coach Belichick and QB Brady have put together through their many years of making New England a dynasty. However, this team is nowhere close to being a dynasty anymore. The Eagles proved that when they beat the Pats in the 2018 Super Bowl and truly it was a miracle that New England won it all again in February of 2019. The run has ended however and this Patriots team is a shell of its former self and is having major troubles on offense. Brady is not what he once was and also does not have the weapons at his disposal that he once possessed. The defense is now the Pats strength but can they hold down the Titans potent offense enough to be able to score enough points to win this game? My answer to that question is an emphatic NO! Tennessee has NOT been held below 20 points in any of their past 10 games. During this stretch the Titans have scored an average of 30.4 points per game! Compare that with a Patriots team that had a chance to secure a first round bye and possible long-term home field edge in the post-season but blew it last week by losing AT HOME to the Dolphins! Absolutely inexcusable and the Pats even scored 24 points in the defeat. The Pats have scored more than 24 points just once in the past 8 games and, prior to that contest 3 games ago, New England had been held to an average of just 17.6 points per game over a 5-game stretch. I also like the coaching angle here with Vrabel facing his former team (both as a player and a coach) and he bested Belichick and the Pats when they most recently met. That was a dominating 34-10 win last season for the Titans over the Patriots. While this game will be a lot closer I am expecting the Titans to get the win. If they do fall short look for it to be by just 3 or 4 points and this line is currently a 5. I'll gladly grab the points here as the Titans defense allowed 24 points or less in 13 of 16 games and they have the better offense in this match-up too. 10* TENNESSEE |
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01-04-20 | Bills +2.5 v. Texans | 19-22 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #141 Saturday 8* Buffalo Bills (+) @ Houston Texans @ 4:35 ET - Everyone is jumping on the Texans here. They have the home field edge. They are getting JJ Watt back on defense. The Bills have a young quarterback making his first ever playoff appearance and it is coming on the road. So of course everyone jumping on Houston and laying the short number. In typical contrarian fashion here I am grabbing the road dog. When a line looks funny or a little off it pays to be mindful of that. In this case I feel Buffalo is much better than people realize and I expect the outright win but will grab the points. The Texans defense has allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last 6 games played in Houston. By comparison the Bills have allowed an average of just 15.6 points per game in their 8 road games this season. You saw the Texans average on defense at home the past 6 games, now note that Buffalo never allowed more than 24 points in ANY of their 8 road games this season! In fact the Bills allowed 20 points or less in 7 of 8 road games. Also I don't trust Texans head coach Bill O'Brien in a playoff game. He has gone 1-3 in the NFL playoffs since he came to Houston from Penn State. The Bills lost here last season but had the yardage edge in that game and I look for the Bills Josh Allen to have a big game against a suspect Texans defense. 8* BUFFALO |
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01-04-20 | Tulane -7 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #277 Saturday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ 11:30 AM ET - The Green Wave lost 5 of their last 6 games this season so it must be some kind of big mistake that this 6-6 Tulane team is favored by a TD over a 6-6 Southern Miss team, right? Of course long-time followers know how I feel about supposed mistakes by odds makers. Look for the Green Wave to blast the Golden Eagles in this one. Southern Mississippi lost their last two games each by a margin of 17 points or more and I expect a similar result here. When you look at their results this season, the Eagles wins almost always came against struggling and/or very weak teams. The Green Wave played a slightly tougher schedule and also hold a big edge in the running game in comparing these two teams. Tulane averaged more than twice as many yards per game on the ground (250) in comparison with Southern Miss (122). Look for the Green Wave to control the clock and control the ground game and wear down the Eagles as this game goes on. I look for Southern Mississippi to struggle with the QB McMillan and the option attack as the Green Wave will also do some damage through the air as the Eagles defense has to respect the ground game of Tulane. As for Southern Miss QB Abraham, he finished the season with a ration of just 6 TDs and 11 INTs in his last 6 games! I feel strongly that that Green Wave will prove to be the better team both on the ground and through the air in this one and I am aware of the fact that Southern Miss has won the last 6 meetings but these teams haven't met in nearly a decade and the Green Wave are a MUCH better football program in recent seasons than in the past. 10* TULANE |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #272 Thursday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 3 ET - Similarly to when I used Cal over Illinois a few days ago, I really believe this is another great opportunity to fade a team that is fortunate to even be in a bowl. Yes, the Eagles finished the season with the requisite requirement of 6 wins just like the Illini did. However, just like Illinois, Boston College statistically is not a very good football team and they are fortunate to be here. The Eagles defense has been absolutely horrific this season. Now they take on a Cincinnati team known for its defense. That said, this is a big mismatch. Keep in mind, were it not for a final game upset over Pittsburgh, the Eagles would not have even made a bowl game. The Eagles are allowing 480 yards per game this season. Cincinnati, even though they had to face Memphis twice and Ohio State once, allowed 100 yards LESS per game than Boston College's defense. Other than the 2 games against the Tigers and the one against the Buckeyes, the Bearcats had one other tough performance on defense (a surprising one against East Carolina). But in their other 9 games this season Cincinnati allowed just 15 points per game. Their defense will be the difference in this game. Boston College, prior to the upset win of the Panthers, had allowed 38 points per game in their 6 prior games! The Eagles head coach Addazio was fired so Boston College is using wide receivers coach Gunnell as the interim HC in this game. All the way around this is simply not a good situation for the Eagles and I expect the Bearcats to roll. 10* CINCINNATI |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia -4 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #270 Wednesday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 8:45 ET - Value, value, value! The Bulldogs were an 8.5 point favorite and have dropped to as low as a 3.5 point favorite as of New Year's Eve before settling in at a -4. I know the prevailing theory is that Georgia is going to be so disappointed here since they had higher hopes this season before the loss to LSU in the SEC Championship. However, they were a 7 point dog in that game. Yes they got blown out by the Tigers in that game but their season is not defined by that game and it is not as if they went into the game as a 7 point favorite and then blew it. They were a 7 point dog and LSU proved to be too much. Using that as motivation as well as last season's loss to Texas right here in the Sugar Bowl, I expect the Bulldogs to come up with a tremendous effort here. Keep in mind Georgia faced a tougher schedule than Baylor. Keep in mind the Bears lost to Oklahoma twice and those were the toughest match-ups that Baylor faced this season. They fell short each time and the Bears have a history of struggling in big games against tough competition. Yes they won their bowl game last season but Baylor faced Vandy. Now they go from facing a perennial SEC doormat to an SEC team that is one of the best in the country year in and year out. I like the odds for the Bulldogs coming up with a big win here. They were upset by South Carolina this season but won the yardage battle by nearly 200 yards in that misleading game. Also, the Bulldogs only other loss was to LSU and we all saw what the Tigers just did to Oklahoma - the same Sooners team that handed the Bears their two losses this season. I feel strongly that Georgia is the better overall team in comparison with Baylor. Also, their 11 wins this season all came by 6 or more points. That is why this line move is truly giving us incredible value here. The Bulldogs remember what happened to them here in the Sugar Bowl last season and, as a results, they're playing this game with something to prove. The favorite rolls in this one. 10* GEORGIA |
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon +3 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Rose Bowl Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #268 Wednesday 8* Oregon Ducks (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 5 ET - Two teams I respect greatly but I feel we have solid line value here with the Ducks as a field goal underdog in this one. Oregon allowed 17 points or less in 8 of their last 12 games. That included a blowout win in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Now of of course Wisconsin is a strong team offensively and they're going to get their fair share against the Ducks defense but you can see why I am giving some shading toward the Oregon D getting more stops than the Badgers D in this one. I like the way the Ducks O matches up with the Badgers D. Led by QB Justin Herbert, Oregon has a solid and balanced offensive attack and their offensive style presents similar challenges to the Wisconsin D that Ohio State did. That is certainly noteworthy as the Buckeyes put up at least 34 points in each game against the Badgers this season. The way the Ducks are built on offense, they will also give Wisconsin some trouble and this is particularly true of their young secondary. Oregon only has 2 losses this season and one came by just 3 points in an upset while the other came on a TD with just 9 seconds left in the game. The Ducks have not been blown out. Now I am not saying Oregon is Ohio State BUT I am saying they are similar and the Buckeyes got the best of the Badgers twice this season and the average margin of defeat was 22 points. Considering all of the above plus the fact we're getting a full field goal here, I am grabbing the dog. Keep in mind, the Badgers ended the regular season on a disappointing note with the loss to Ohio State while the Ducks are riding high and with plenty of momentum after what they did to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. 8* OREGON |
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12-31-19 | Kansas State +3 v. Navy | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #257 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 3:45 ET - This is an ideal situation in terms of the contrarian aspect that is a big part of my handicapping style. How in the world did an unranked 8-4 team open up as a 2 point favorite over a ranked 10-2 team? Exactly! So the whole world, of course, has jumped on Navy here and moved the line to a -3 for the Midshipmen. That means we now get Kansas State +3 when they were originally favored for a reason. Again, just reiterating I love contrarian spots like this. The fact is that the Midshipmen played a weaker schedule and, in addition to a special teams edge (often overlooked but an important aspect in football), the Wildcats are likely to be successful defending the option. Of course, as per usual heading into a bowl game, Kansas State has had extra time to prepare for Navy's option. But the big key to being able to defend it well is the fact that the Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman just came from spending 5 years as the HC at North Dakota State. He won 4 national titles in his 5 years there and the Bison had to defend the option in FCS action. Also, Klieman's staff includes personnel also experienced with defending the option. Look for Kansas State to hold this Navy offense in check throughout this game. While statistically the defenses look about equal in this match-up they really are not. It comes down to strength of schedule and the types of offenses they faced. The Wildcats faced much tougher tests in the Big 12 than what Navy faced. When the Midshipmen stepped up in level of competition they consistently allowed big point totals. Against Memphis, Tulane, Notre Dame, SMU and Houston it was an average of 39 points per game allowed by Navy. To put that in proper perspective, the Wildcats allowed 27 points or less in 10 of their 12 games this season. The only two they didn't were against Baylor and Oklahoma and it was only the high-scoring Sooners that really gave the Cats D trouble. You can see based on the defensive numbers above why it would not surprise me to see the dog win this game outright by double digits. I'll gladly grab the points here. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech -2 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #292 Tuesday 8* Virginia Tech (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ Noon ET in Charlotte, NC - The Wildcats are a run heavy team as they switched up their offense after making the QB change to a dual threat QB and running an option offense. I expect the Hokies to do just fine defending the option here. With this expected to be Bud Foster's last game at defensive coordinator for Virginia Tech you know this defense is going to play extremely hard for him. They have had plenty of time to prepare to face Kentucky's option offense and I expect them to play it extremely well in this match-up. The Hokies offense has become stronger with Hooker at QB. Keep in mind they won 6 of 7 after making the QB switch and the only loss was by 1 point to Notre Dame - a game which Hooker was forced to miss with injury. Virginia Tech has the stronger passing game and also I like the fact they have a shot at controlling the ground game with the extra time to prepare for this one. After rare back to back strong games offensively, Kentucky gets held in check in this one as the Hokies go all out for Foster. The Wildcats are 12-23 ATS (8-27 SU) when off back to back games in which they scored 31 points or more. Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU when off a road game this season. Also, in the past 3 seasons combined, the Hokies are 4-1 SU when off an upset loss as a road favorite. 8* VIRGINIA TECH |
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12-30-19 | Illinois v. California -6.5 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #250 Monday 10* Top Play California Golden Bears (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 4 ET - Illinois is such a bad team statistically and yet they somehow battled and made it to a 6-6 record and a bowl game. The Illini thrived on turnovers as that was a key to the few victories that they did have over quality competition. That is unlikely to work in the favor of Illinois in this one as California is known for taking good care of the ball. That said, I look for the Illini to struggle badly in this one. Cal has a great defense and also their offense - though certainly no powerhouse - does play much better when QB Garbers is healthy and under center. The Bears have the much stronger defensive line (which will be a key in this game) and they played a tougher schedule overall and this bowl game is practically a home game for Cal with how close it is to their campus. The Illini had a fluke 4-game winning streak that involved some miracle wins but their last two games of the season (both losses by 9 or more points) and the fact their 4 most recent losses have come by an average margin of 17 points tell the full story here. Also, in Big Ten action Illinois benefited from not facing Penn State or Ohio State this season. My projection is a win in the 17 point range for Cal as their defense has allowed 24 points or less in 10 of 12 games this season and the Illini defense is going to struggle to stop the Bears offense now that Garbers is healthy again. Illinois gave up an average of 37 points per game in their match-ups with E. Mich, Nebr, Minn, Mich, Mich St and Northwestern. 10* CALIFORNIA |
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12-29-19 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #129 Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - The Seahawks let an opportunity slip away with their inexcusable home loss to the Cardinals last week. Seattle has now allowed an average of 27 points per game their past 4 games and they are banged up on offense too. The Niners are ready to swoop in and take advantage of the situation. Things are very simple for the 49ers here as they control their own destiny across the board. A win not only clinches the division and a first round bye for them, it also clinches home field edge for the post-season! San Francisco is not going to let this opportunity pass them by. The Niners and the Saints look like the two best teams in the NFC hands down no questions asked. That said, I don't foresee SF slipping up here. Other than their recent game at New Orleans - an absolute shootout - the 49ers have allowed 14.3 points per game on the road this season! Compare that to a Seahawks team that has allowed 30.5 points per game in their last 6 home games. Seattle actually was better on the road than at home this season while the Niners were also better on the road than at home this season. Seattle once was a tough place to play and a tough venue to score points in but, as you can see per the above, that is no longer the case. Also, San Francisco also has revenge here from a home OT loss to the Seahawks last month. It is payback time for the Niners and they are the healthier team and are 6-1 SU on the road while Seattle is 4-3 SU at home on the season. Comparing these two defenses there is no comparison! That is why I am happy to lay the small points here with the 49ers in a game I fully expect to turn into a road rout! 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-29-19 | Eagles -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #115 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles certainly have injury issues but they are not significant enough to prevent them from winning the NFC East. With a win Sunday at New York over the Giants they accomplish that goal. We are getting line value here because of the injury situation for Philadelphia. Now lets examine some important facts here. The Giants are just 4-11 this season. One of the wins came at Tampa Bay against a Buccaneers team that has won just TWO home games this season. Another Giants win came against a Dolphins team that is 4-11 this season. The other two New York victories came against the 3-12 Redskins. The point is that the Giants haven't won a challenging game all season. Sure New York would love to spoil the Giants division title hopes but I look for Philadelphia to dominate the ground game on both sides of the ball in this one and that will be a key. With rainy weather expected in East Rutherford, New Jersey this afternoon and into the evening, look for the ground game to be of particular importance. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the league at stopping the run. The Giants defense is bad overall and that includes stopping the run. New York's recent home games,, in terms of run defense, have included allowing 122 yards to Miami, 172 yards to Dallas, and 156 yards to Arizona. The Eagles run defense has had one bad game (versus Seattle) in their past 8 games. In the other 7 games they allowed 74.3 rushing yards per game. The Philadelphia defense has allowed 17 points or less in 6 of its last 8 games. The Giants defense has allowed 31 points or more in 5 of its last 8 games. Everyone focused on some Eagles injury issues here but their defense is quite healthy. The absence of CB Darby (constantly getting burned for big plays prior the injury) is honestly a case of addition by subtraction. The Philly secondary is better off without him. Look for the Eagles defense to lead the way here. The Giants D, on the other hand, has allowed an average of 29 points per game in its past 5 home games. Making that stat even more alarming is the fact that two of the games came against teams that currently have 5 or less wins on the season. This is a case of incredible line value because of the Eagles injury issues on offense. Yes, they have had injury issues at WR and now have lost TE Zach Ertz too. But Dallas Goedert has been strong at TE and Greg Ward has stepped up at WR with Whiteside also coming up with big catches. The backfield has plenty of options too with Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and now Jordan Howard is back from injury as well. The Eagles will get the ball into the hands of those guys as well including through the air. Philly has covered 5 of their last 6 as a divisional road favorite while the Giants are on a 1-4 ATS run as a divisional home dog. On both sides of the ball, the Eagles are strong in the trenches (and could have Lane Johnson back on the offensive line too) and I look for them to wear down the Giants as this game goes on. The last 15 times the Giants have been a home dog of 7 or less points they have gone 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS. Look for the Eagles to win this one in a road rout and I'll take advantage of the small number posted on this game. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-29-19 | Packers v. Lions +13 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #124 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - The Packers need to win. As a result, they are severely over-priced here. Lets not forget this is a short week for Green Bay (played on MNF) and they were on the road last week (at Minnesota) and now are on the road again. Yes the Lions have been struggling but what better way to end the season than coming up with a big home win as a double digit dog against a division rival that needs to win? I am not saying that I am predicting Detroit to win this game outright. However, I do feel they keep this game within single digits and, in fact, most likely a game decided by 7 or less points. Green Bay rallied to beat the Lions in their first match-up this season which was at Lambeau Field way back in mid-October. Ironically that 1-point loss to the Packers was the last time that Detroit has registered an ATS cover. This has led to extreme line value here. Yes the Lions have issues but they were only a 3-point dog in the first meeting despite being on the road. Now Detroit is at home for the second meeting and they are a 13-point dog. Even just using the normal 3 point home field edge that means the betting markets are saying the Lions are now 16 points worse than the Packers on a neutral field because keep in mind the original line would have meant the teams were about equal on a neutral field. This a 16-point line swing and it is way too much to ignore. The Packers are 12-3 SU this season but when you look at their yardage stats and game by game statistical results this is NOT a typical 12-3 team and they are definitely over-priced here. Look for the hungry Lions to make a game out of this one. 8* DETROIT |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #243 Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET in Fiesta Bowl @ State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ - I feel we're getting excellent line value here. Of course both teams are undefeated on the season but the Buckeyes have played a much tougher schedule. The Tigers were favored by at least 24 points in 12 of their 13 games this season! Clemson really hasn't been tested this season. As for Ohio State, they faced a tough Wisconsin team twice and also did battle with Penn State and had to play at Michigan this season. All of those were true battles where the Buckeyes had to up their game. Did they do it? You bet! They didn't just win those games...they dominated. Ohio State won those 4 games - all against quality competition - by a combined score of 156-72. That works out to an "average" score of 39 to 18 and there is certainly nothing "average' about that when you consider the quality of those opponents. The only time Clemson was favored by less than 24 points was when they faced Texas A & M. Though they did win that game by 2 TDs they only won the yardage battle by 100 yards. The Aggies were hurt by 2 turnovers and 85 yards in penalties. I respect Clemson (who wouldn't respect a 13-0 team?) but I feel strongly that the battle-tested Buckeyes are going to prove to be the better 13-0 team on Saturday! Keep in mind the Tigers were lucky to beat North Carolina earlier this season and won that game by just a single point. Compare that to an Ohio State team that has, without a doubt, played the tougher schedule, and yet has won EVERY game by a double digit margin. Look for Clemson to drop to 8-14 ATS when they enter a game on an ATS winning streak of 4 or more games. The Buckeyes, when the posted total is in a range from 56.5 to 63 points, have gone an incredible 45-1 SU the last 46. They win again in that role here as the Tigers offense (held under 400 yards by A & M and UNC this season) won't be able to keep up with Ohio State in this one. Keep in mind the Buckeyes defense has been fantastic this season even against tougher competition than the types of teams that Clemson faced this season. 10* OHIO STATE |
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma +14 v. LSU | 28-63 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #241 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 4 ET in Peach Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - Too many points here. This line opened up at 11.5 and has gone all the way up to a 14 in most books as of early game-day morning. The Sooners defense has quietly become much better than people realize. That is helping to give us line value in this game because everyone still thinks of Oklahoma as only being a powerhouse on offense but OU has proven they can get some stops when they need to. As for LSU, of course it goes without saying that they have had a fantastic season but many are overlooking the fact that the Tigers defense actually has allowed more yardage than the Sooners defense on the season. LSU has played a tougher schedule BUT only slightly tougher. This Tigers team is simply not two touchdowns better than Oklahoma. No way. Because Oklahoma has one loss and LSU is undefeated on the season, we're seeing a bit of an inflated line here. That is also because the Sooners are on a 2-6 ATS run their last 8 games. Keep in mind the Tigers have allowed 37 points or more 4 times this season! Oklahoma has allowed 27 points or less in 9 of 13 games this season. The Sooners only loss came by just 5 points. LSU has had 3 wins of 7 or less points. I am looking for this game to go down to the wire and if the Tigers do pull it out, look for it to be by a single possession. Look for OU to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they have been an underdog. Grab the big points in this one. 8* OKLAHOMA |
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12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa -2 | Top | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #233 Friday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs USC Trojans @ 8 ET in Holiday Bowl @ SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, CA - With USC having won 5 of their past 6 games and also playing this game practically in their back yard, many will be siding with the Trojans here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side in this one. Iowa is the much better defense in this match-up and here is an intriguing stat for you about this one: the favorite won ALL 12 Hawkeyes games this season SU. Look for that trend to continue here and, as only a 2 point favorite in this one, any SU win by Iowa here is likely to also be an ATS win. After 3 straight seasons of allowing less than 400 yards per game, the Trojans defense regressed this season. USC allowed 415.2 yards per game on the year and 28 points per game. The Hawkeyes defense allowed less than HALF that average as they gave up just 13 points per game this season. Iowa is also highly motivated to try to get a 10-win season while USC's best finish would be a 9-win season and the fact is coach Helton already appears to be off the hot seat since the Trojans went 5-1 after a 3-3 start this year. Southern Cal is on a 5-15 ATS run in December games. USC also has gone 0-6 ATS the past two seasons when they entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games SU. The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games. I am going with a motivated team that has the much better defense in this one. Look for Hawkeyes QB Stanley, whom did have some big games this season against lesser defenses, to take advantage of facing a rather mediocre defense in this one. 10* IOWA |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State +5.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #231 Friday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 6:45 ET in Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX - The Aggies went 7-5 this season. NONE of the 7 wins came against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. All 5 times that Texas A & M stepped up in class (in terms of the level of opponent they were facing) they lost all 5 games! That said, Oklahoma State is no cupcake and I like the Cowboys in this match-up! Oklahoma State was 8-3 this season prior to losing their regular season finale to the Sooners. Though known for their offense, note that the Cowboys actually held the high-powered Oklahoma offense to their season low in total yardage this year! Though Aggies head coach Fisher led them to a big bowl win last season, he entered last year's bowl with a mediocre 4-3 record in bowls. Cowboys coach Gundy has a 9-4 record in bowls! Last year's Texas A & M bowl win was their first since 2014 and I still don't trust them in bowls. One game doesn't change everything. This is the 14th straight bowl for the Cowboys and Gundy's 9-4 mark in bowls is no fluke. The fact that we also get them as a sizable dog in this match-up and the fact that they have the definitive edge on offense is why I am backing OSU big in this one! Keep in mind the Aggies scored just 7 points against LSU in their regular season finale. That is the same LSU team that, though very powerful on offense, allowed 37 points or more 4 times this season and yet Texas A & M scored a measly 7 points against them! Aggies won't be able to keep up with the Cowboys in this one. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7 | Top | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #224 Thursday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 4 ET in Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA - The location of this game certainly favors the Bulldogs as they are about 70 miles east of Shreveport. The Hurricanes certainly have a history of disappointing in bowl games and I don't see them being too excited for this one. Also, as a favorite of 31 points or less this season, Miami went 2-6 ATS this season! 5 of those ATS losses were also SU losses as the Canes are no strangers to upsets. Another one could be on tap here! The Bulldogs have won 5 straight bowl games while the Hurricanes have lost 8 of their last 9 bowl games. Louisiana Tech is on a 4-1 ATS run in bowls while Miami is on a 1-7 ATS run in bowls. Of course looking at this regular season the Hurricanes have played the much tougher schedule but are they really ready to play here? Certainly going to the Independence Bowl in Shreveport was not something on the preseason "goals list" of the Canes. Conversely, the Bulldogs are certainly hungry to go for a 10-win season here and to be able to do that so close to home. Motivation is a key in a match-up like this and I am grabbing what is, in essence, a home dog in this one. The Bulldogs also benefit from being as high as a +7 in some spots as of game day morning. 10* LOUISIANA TECH |
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12-23-19 | Packers +5.5 v. Vikings | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #481 Monday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - Winning breeds confidence no matter the opposition. The point is that Green Bay comes into this game with plenty of confidence as they are on a 3-game winning streak and allowed 15 points or less in all 3 games. Granted, none of those teams have a winning record on the season but, as my opening sentence stated, winning leads to confidence. The Packers have only lost 3 games on the season and one of those was to Philadelphia when they did outgain the Eagles by a large margin. Another loss was to a Niners team that looks like one of the best teams in the NFL this season. The Packers really have had only one ugly defeat and that was that game at LA against the Chargers when they played like a team that didn't even show up for the game. Trust me, Green Bay is showing up for this divisional showdown with the Vikings. Also, the Vikings have been hot too and are on a 4-2 SU win but two of those four wins came by just 4 points. That means that laying the points that Minnesota is in this game, they would be on just a 2-4 ATS run. Green Bay is going to be tough for the Vikings to put away here. QB Aaron Rodgers is a big game player who has had many huge efforts in primetime action. Certainly for QB Kirk Cousins that is not the case. In fact, Cousins teams are 0-8 SU and ATS in Monday Night games! 8 LOSSES and ZERO wins! The Packers have a great shot at the outright upset here and if they do fall short I expect it to be by a field goal or less. Look for quite the game in Minneapolis Monday. Look for the Pack to improve to 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Vikings. 10* GREEN BAY |
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12-23-19 | Marshall +15.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #219 Monday 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 2:30 ET in Gasparilla Bowl @ Tampa, FL - The Knights, as you can see from the big line posted on this one, are no doubt the much better team in this match-up. However, how motivated will they be here after playing on a much bigger stage in recent bowl seasons and now being relegated to the Gasparilla Bowl on the Monday before Christmas. UCF had actually been playing on New Year's Day bowls in recent seasons. As for Marshall, their certainly happy to be here and have played well in Tampa in recent bowl seasons. The Thundering Herd also are lead by a coach (Doc Holliday) whom has great success in bowls - 6-0 SU and ATS his last 6. Now I am certainly not projecting an outright upset here but I am projecting that the Herd will have no problem staying within two TDs here and I actually expect them to lose by just single digits. Marshall has a respectable defense and prior to their season-ending 30-27 win, had allowed 24 points or less in 6 of 7 games. In those 6 games the Thundering Herd allowed an average of just 17.5 points per game and keep in mind that is what the spread on this game opened up at. In other words, great value considering Marshall is certainly not going to get shutout here! The Herd are taking on a UCF defense that allowed just 7 points in their season finale but the Knights entered that game having allowed 21 points or more in 9 straight games! When coach Holliday's teams are an underdog they have produced a 10-3 ATS record the last 13 times. Look for another cover here as the Thundering Herd take advantage of a Central Florida team lacking in motivation in this one. 10* MARSHALL |
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12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears +6.5 | 26-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #480 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Bears are eliminated from playoff contention but you won't see them laying down in a spot like this! Here Chicago is playing their final home game of the season and it is a big primetime Sunday night game hosting Patrick Mahomes and company. The Bears will go all out here to win their final home game of the season and that means we have exceptional line value being offered here. Chicago is available at nearly a full TD as a home dog in this spot. Prior to their loss at Green Bay last week, the Bears had won 3 straight games. The Chiefs have failed to cover 2 of their past 3 true road games (also faced the Chargers in Mexico). Chicago is a perfect 3-0 SU in their last 3 home games. Kansas City has been hot but they are 1-7 ATS when they enter a game after having won 6 or 7 out of their prior 8 games. The Bears are 8-1 ATS the last 9 times they have been a home underdog! Look for them to surprise the masses and get the job done again in that role here. 8* CHICAGO |
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on the Cowboys here and you know how that usually plays out! In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the big move toward Dallas here but certainly it is not without good reasoning. Yes the Eagles have some injury issues - namely at WR but also RT Lane Johnson. However, this is a big-time revenge game for Philadelphia going against their most hated rival and this time the game is at Philly. Plus the Eagles rely a ton on their TEs and are strong at that position plus they've seen WR Greg Ward step up. Yes Dallas is off a blowout win over the Rams but they had lost 3 straight games prior to that. The Cowboys are a very inconsistent team from week to week prone to mistakes and certainly coach Jason Garrett is not exactly highly regarded. Watch him get out-coached in this one. The rematch will play out much differently than the first game. Dallas was at home last week but now returns to the road where they have lost 4 of their past 6. The Cowboys have 3 road wins on the season and ALL 3 came against teams that have just 3 wins on the season! Giants and Redskins are 3-11 and the Lions are 3-10-1. The Eagles are 18-6 SU in their last 24 home games. Philadelphia is 4-0 SU when off a game in which they scored 35 or more points. The Eagles, after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, have gone 6-1 SU. Look for the Cowboys to drop to 2-5 ATS the last 7 times they've been a road favorite of 3 or less points. The Eagles defense is going to make up for an embarrassing performance the last time these teams met. Also, the Dallas defense has allowed 27 points or more in 2 of its last 3 road games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans +3 | 38-28 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #464 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Saints have been playing very well and I am well aware of the fact they are still motivated here in terms of playoff positioning in the NFC. However, the Titans motivation is even stronger as they are fighting for their playoff lives. Also, Tennessee is a home dog and I like catching New Orleans on short rest here plus, literally, out of their element as this is an outdoor game the running game may end up being of a little more importance here. The Titans have the stronger ground attack on offense, the home field edge, and they're catching as much a field goal in this one as a home dog. After falling just short versus Houston last week, look for the home team to respond in a big way this week. Also, after the Saints played so flawlessly well against the Colts on Monday Night Football, don't be surprised if we see a big drop-off here. Look for the Titans to grab the outright win to keep their playoff hopes alive. 8* TENNESSEE |
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12-21-19 | Washington -3 v. Boise State | Top | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #215 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies (-) vs Boise State in Las Vegas Bowl @ 7:30 ET - Just one loss on the season and playing already on December 21st? Say hello to Boise State. An underdog even though playing a 7-5 team? Say hello to Boise State. Ranked and facing an unranked team and yet still not favored? Say hello to Boise State. You get the point. The Broncos might fool the masses here but they're not fooling me. This line is set this way for good reason. I am taking the unranked 7-5 team. Sure the Huskies had bigger hopes this season but when the Pac-12 portion of the schedule starts 2-4 SU your fate is pretty well sealed. What happened since then? Washington won 2 of their last 3 games including blasting rival Washington State in their season finale. The Huskies are playing hard for coach Petersen here in his final game. Lets also not forget he use to coach Boise State. Some nice added motivation here for sure. The Broncos lone loss this season was at BYU in OT. That is the same Cougars team that Washington (also facing them on the road) smashed by 26 points! The Huskies have played the much tougher schedule this season. Also their defense is very good this season. In road games the Huskies allowed an average of 19 points per game. Boise State, in road games this season, allowed 26.5 points per game this season. Strength of schedule, intangibles, the coaching factor, the neutral site, it all adds up to a ranked team being the dog here for all the right reasons. The Huskies roll by double digits in this one. 10* WASHINGTON |
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12-21-19 | Bills +6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
AFC East Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #453 Saturday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ New England Patriots @ 4:30 ET - The Patriots crushed Cincinnati last week but it was thanks to 5 turnovers! The Bengals actually outgained New England in that game. Speaking of misleading scoreboard results, the Patriots won the first meeting with Buffalo this season but the Bills outgained New England by 151 yards and had more than twice as many first downs. The Patriots offense continues to struggle and the Bills are a high-quality football team that is just one game in back of the Pats in the AFC East. Buffalo is on an 11-4 ATS run and also 7-1 ATS run as a divisional away dog. Don't be surprised if the Bills get the outright upset here and, if they do fall short, look for it to be by only 3 or 4 points. Grab the points in this one. 10* BUFFALO |
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