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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +2 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers + vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - This line is as high as a +2 on the Chargers as of early gameday morning and this is a great spot for the home dog. Los Angeles is coming off a bye. LA has been in their home state ever since a win 3 weeks ago at Minnesota when they knocked off the Vikings. They are now off B2B wins plus expected to get stud RB Austin Ekeler back for this one. He has been out since Week 1 and he is a helluva player! That is when he put up 164 yards of offense, including 117 on the ground on just 16 carries, and he scored a touchdown. He essentially ran roughshod over a Dolphins team that is now 5-1 on the season. Speaking of facing tough opposition, it is something these Cowboys had not done until facing the Niners last week and we all know what happened then. Dallas looked like a high school team trying to take on a college team. Yes, it was that bad. Here is the thing. Dallas is not that good. They are overrated. Look at their skill position players. Look at how they perform against better teams. Prescott always seems to struggle against the better teams as he showed again last week. So the Cowboys stats on the season are quite irrelevant because what really matters is who they have played and then how they perform against better teams. So heading into this week, the 4 teams Dallas had faced entered this week with a combined record of 5-15. Do you really care what stats Dallas put up against such bad teams when they now face a team that is expected to be in the playoffs this season? Also, of the 5 teams Dallas has faced so far this season 4 of them then lost AGAIN this week! Now the Cowboys are on the road AGAIN and they are favored AGAIN and I am going to sit back and happily watch them again disappoint the legion of Boys fans all over the globe. This team is just not strong against the better teams in the league. Year after year they give their fans false hope by annihilating bad teams (which pads their inflated stats) and then struggling against better teams. As I said, last week when we had the Niners over the Cowboys, "Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great!" and also as I alluded to last week I am not a fan of McCarthy as a coach and think he again will get out-coached this week. Give me the home team to make it 3 straight wins. Note their 2 losses were by 2 points to a now 5-1 Miami team and the other loss in OT by a FG. So I will grab the points being offered here but I do not expect to need them. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+) points |
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10-15-23 | Eagles -6 v. Jets | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) points @ New York Jets @ 4:25 ET - For those of you that did not know, the Jets win at Denver last week was practically like New York winning their Super Bowl for this season. I am kidding but only partially kidding as the fact is there had been a major war of words between Broncos coach Payton and Jets offensive coordinator Hackett. The later had preceded him at Denver as the head coach and Payton made the mistake of criticizing him badly. Hackett, though only the OC, got the game ball after the Jets win over a bad Broncos team in which New York had over 400 yards of offense and scored 31 points. On that note, this is a big-time flat spot for what is still not a good Jets team and we have some 100% angles here that support 5-0 Philadelphia in this spot. The Jets are 0-5 ATS when they are a home dog after a game in which they scored at least 28 points. Also, in terms of historical data, the Eagles are a perfect 7-0 ATS when they face an AFC East opponent that is coming off a win. So this is a double perfect spot favoring the Eagles with those TWO 100% PERFECT trends. Statistically the Jets are not good on either side of the ball yet they have managed B2B covers and have a couple of SU wins on the season. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball and this is a value line at less than a TD. Currently the dominant number is 6.5 as of early gameday morning. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) points |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) points @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - This line has moved to as high as 14.5 as of 7 hours before kick-off. This has me in play here because it is not easy to cover big spreads in the NFL. These guys are professionals and they are paid to play the game for a reason. This Panthers defense is actually statistically better than the Dolphins defense on the season when looking at yards. I know the problem in this match-up for Carolina backers is that the offense is certainly worlds better for Miami that it is for the Panthers. However, the Panthers need to protect the ball, play solid defense, create some turnovers, and catch the Dolphins looking ahead to a match-up with 5-0 Philly that is on deck. The fact is if all those things happened we even could see the biggest upset of the season here. I am not banking on that but I honestly do fully expect this game will be decided by a one-score margin. Even if I am wrong, but not by too much, a 2-TD margin here still gets us the cash. I love the big dog in this match-up as the set-up is perfect. The Giants team the Dolphins just beat is decimated by injuries. The Panthers are off another ugly loss but they played better than the final score indicated. Then when you factor in Miami's trip to Philadelphia is on deck while Carolina can go all out with a bye on deck, this is a fantastic match-up for a big dog cover. The Panthers are 14-2 ATS when they are off a road loss to an NFC opponent by a double digit margin. Trust me, that loss at Detroit got Carolina and Frank Reich's attention as they look to right the ship before the bye week. 10* CAROLINA + points |
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10-14-23 | UMass +42 v. Penn State | Top | 0-63 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
CFB Saturday CFB 10* UMass Minutemen + points @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - I know it may seem tough to take one of the worst teams in FBS football against one of the best in the nation but, as of early game day morning the line on this one is as high as 42 points! There are some keys here that have led to big value here in a game in which I feel the Lions will call off the dogs before running up the score. One of the big keys here that I think people may be overlooking is that rain is in the forecast all day long in State College today. Beaver Stadium in PA will still be packed with fans but the field conditions could get sloppy here. I mean we are not just talking about drizzle or mist, this is supposed to a significant and persistent rainfall. I love having big dogs in ugly weather games and you will rarely see lines bigger than this one. I know UMass is a bad football team but they won their season opener on the road and also have a 2 point road loss under their belts, a 3 point home loss in OT as well, and they had as many first downs as Toledo in their loss to the Rockets last week that was a bit of a "phony" final score. Of course, the Minutemen are nowhere near on the level of Penn State but they have been a bit more competitive this season than what I have seen from them in the past. Also, they have a bye week on deck and certainly will leave it all on the field for this one in terms of their best effort. Speaking of byes, the Nittany Lions are off a bye week after a Big Ten road win at Northwestern and they have a huge game on deck at Ohio State. This is the perfect spot for the Nittany Lions to be a bit complacent early on in this game plus then start thinking about the Buckeyes once they do get up big in this game. They will likely rest their first stringers as this game goes on plus the expected ugly weather conditions will likely make the right choice to be a conservative grind it out second half with a heavy dose of the ground game and just running clock. Note that PSU is 0-4 ATS when they are playing with rest and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .666 and this is another one of those perfect spots for the Lions to be a bit complacent. Also, Penn State has covered just 20% of the time when coming off a game against Northwestern. I like all the edges here, including the weather, to help this game end up being decided in the 20s or maybe 30s at most. 10* MASSACHUSETTS + points |
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10-14-23 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +3 | Top | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys + points vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - In Lance Leipold's first season at Kansas the Jayhawks came to Stillwater, OK and got annihilated 55 to 3. They got major payback last season when they hosted the Cowboys and won 37 to 16. So the home team in the Mike Gundy vs Lance Leipold match-ups is 92 to 19 so far. This one, of course, is not going to be that easy for the hosts but I do think the home team wins and I love the fact we are getting 3 points to work with as home dog OSU is catching a full field goal as of early game day morning. Quick...when is the last time Kansas was a Big 12 road favorite? Stumped? Don't feel bad as it has been more than a DECADE as you have to go back about 14 years to find it! Sure, Kansas is improved and Oklahoma State is down from where they use to be but their ugly home loss to South Alabama was the wake-up call this team needed. The Cowboys have been undervalued since then and got an outright win last week as a double digit home dog to Kansas State! Just like knocking off the Wildcats they can now knock off the same-state Jayhawks as well. Kansas did not win last week's game as easily as the final score would lead you to believe. At least from a stats perspective. Also, their road game before that was an annihilation loss at Texas. Kansas has wins against a lot of bad teams this season. The last two games they have been without their starting QB and he is not expected to start this game either. As for the Cowboys, they seem to have things settling down at the QB position and have added confidence of the much needed win last week. Now they look to get some revenge and this spot is also supported by an 11-0 ATS angle. The last 11 times that OSU has been a dog of less than 7 points against a team that is coming in off a SU win, they have covered the spread all 11 times! This one should make it 12 straight as the Cowboys get revenge for last year's embarrassing loss at Kansas. Gundy has his guys ready and they protect their home turf in this one! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE + points |
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10-13-23 | Stanford +12.5 v. Colorado | Top | 46-43 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 10 ET - This line is around a dozen points as of early gameday morning and I feel it will prove to be too much. Stanford has a new head coach this season and is having some growing pains as expected. However, now they enter this game off a bye week and having had a chance to evaluate everything and make some changes and get ready to attack the rest of the season refreshed a bit both mentally and physically. Colorado, on the other hand, has a bye on deck and they enter this game off a tight win at Arizona State where they won the game by 3 points plus were outgained by 100 yards! The Buffaloes are over-rated because of all the Coach Prime hype. I am not saying they will not win this game but I do not expect them to cover. Note that 3 of the 4 wins Colorado has have come by a margin of 8 points or less and the one by 8 points was a very fortunate OT win over Colorado State. The other key about the Buffs wins is that none of them have come against a team that currently has a winning record this season. Now, as noted above, Stanford has certainly struggled. But one could argue (and rightly so) that the Buffaloes could easily be a 1-win team so far this season just like Stanford. Also, this situation is set up well with the Cardinal coming in off a bye week and catching double digits in points. I know Stanford has been bad this season but the Buffaloes are over-valued and the Cardinal view this game as a big one to jump-start their 2nd half of the season and the lion's share portion of their Pac-12 schedule which remains. The Buffaloes will overlook the Cardinal and this big road dog comes into this one fully ready. An outright upset would not shock me but of course that is still asking a bit much. I will happily grab the big points! 10* STANFORD (+) |
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10-12-23 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - Current line range is 10.5 points and is too much the way I see it! Game on short rest for both teams of course but this favors Denver in my opinion. Chiefs off win but were up in Minnesota and so not only a satisfying but coming off a week that involved travel. Yes the Broncos had to travel to get here of course but is a very short trip from Denver to KC and the Broncos mentality is much different entering this one. Denver is angry off embarrassing home loss to the Jets last week. Denver is now 1-4 this season and they lost 3 fumbles last week in a frustrating defeat. The Broncos will be the ugly dog here that no one wants to back but note that Sean Payton as a head coach has gone 9-3 ATS as a road dog and the last time they were in this role they were blasted by 50 points at Miami so I am quite confident Payton will have his troops ready this go around. Also, Payton's teams have gone 13-3 ATS as a divisional dog. Also, worth noting here is that the Chiefs have the Chargers up next. LA is the only real threat to KC for the division title this season. Could they get caught looking ahead? Keep in mind, the Chiefs are only 1-6 ATS last 7 in divisional games. The Chiefs also have covered just 2 of 8 when facing a team with a winning percentage under .400 so the lookahead theory is evident there too. Additionally, Kansas City has covered just 2 of 13 when coming off a non-conference road game and that was a hard-fought win over the Vikings last week. There is even more ATS stuff on this one from a situational standpoint but I will not bore you with the details. The simple fact is this is too many points to lay on a short week and facing an angry underdog that wants to play much better football this week. The Chiefs still the much better team of course and they find a way to win but I look for this game to be decided by just a 1-score margin as the Broncos put up a helluva fight! 10* DENVER (+) |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | Top | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - When Dana Holgorsen was coaching West Virginia he left because he could not get the contract he wanted. The Mountaineers certainly could afford to pay him but they just did not want to. They felt he was not worth it and Holgorsen ended up in Houston while Neal Brown took over at West Virginia. The result was that Brown ended up on the hot seat with struggles with the Mountaineers whereas Holgorsen built up to the level of an 11-2 season and bowl win just 2 years ago. They then won their bowl game again last season but it was overall a lackluster campaign compared to the year prior. Now, having struggled some early this season too, this first game after a bye week and first chance against his former team has Holgorsen and his team fired up. They want this game badly. Sometimes bye weeks come at a great time for a team and other times it is bad timing. In this case, the Cougars had been struggling with 3 losses in 4 games since winning their season opener versus UTSA. Conversely, the Mountaineers had surprisingly been rolling with 4 straight wins. That makes this a perfect set up because Houston needed the bye but it was the last thing West Virginia wanted. Think about it too...why is a team that has won 4 straight laying just 3 points against a team that has gone 1-3 last 4 games and struggled in their Big 12 games? Don't fall for the trap here! The Cougars are hungry and at home and their coach will have them ready for this, perhaps, "do or die" game in the eyes of Holgorsen! 10* HOUSTON (+) |
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10-11-23 | Sam Houston State +3.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday Sam Houston State Bearkats (+) @ New Mexico State Aggies @ 9 ET - Handicapping lesson 101. When you see a home team that is 3-3 laying only about a field goal to a team that is 0-5 on the season, it is time to take a close look. In this case, I would almost never play a favorite but would look at that winless dog. In this case, everything checks out for being worthy of a bet. I certainly respect coach Jerry Kill and his Aggies are decent, especially on defense. However, this Bearkats team has played the tougher overall schedule. There is a good reason this game is priced this way. Do not let the line fool you. The Bearkats nearly upset Liberty last week and they should have beaten Jacksonville State the week prior when they led by 8 with under 20 seconds to go! The point is that this team is much better than their 0-5 record would lead you to believe. The Bearkats have been double digit dogs in 4 of their 5 games so that tells you just how tough their schedule has been. Prior to a win over a bad FIU team last week in which the Aggies did not even pull away until the 4th quarter, New Mexico State was just 1-3 SU this season against FBS teams and Sam Houston has had just 1 home game this season while this will be the 4th home game this season for NM St. The point is that there is contrarian line value here with this 0-5 team that is catching 3 points plus the hook as of late morning game day. I am expecting an outright upset here but grabbing the points just in case. SAM HOUSTON STATE (+)Â |
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10-10-23 | Liberty -6.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday Liberty Flames (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - Two weeks ago the Gamecocks pulled a rabbit out of the hat as -6.5 point favorites on the road at Sam Houston State. Ironically this line also is currently a 6.5 as of late morning Tuesday but this time Jacksonville State is on the other side of it as a home dog. I am laying the points with the road team here. The Gamecocks -6.5 were down 8 to the Bearkats but then scored a TD and 2 point conversion with just seconds left in regulation to force OT. They then got the ball first in OT and scored to take a 7 point lead and, you guessed it, Sam Houston could not answer. Was a miracle cover for the Gamecocks. Then last week they were down 23 to 7 at the half against Middle Tennessee State. Unbelievably Jacksonville State did it again. Not only rallying for the win they made it look even easier than it was as they won 45 to 30. All this has done is given us exceptional line value here because both those teams the Gamecocks beat are nowhere close to the level of this Liberty team. The Flames are undefeated this season and have the much better offense in comparison with the Gamecocks. I know Liberty did not dominate the Bearkats like they should have last week but they were up 21 to 10 at half and started looking ahead to this game. By the way, a few weeks ago Liberty caught FIU off an outright upset win at Connecticut. The Flames proceeded to blast Florida International in a 38 to 6 win. That makes Liberty 5-0 ATS when catching an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog! They now catch Jacksonville State in that same situation with the Gamecocks off an outright upset win at Middle Tennessee! Look for this system to improve to 6-0 ATS as J-St gets blasted! The Flames are on a 31-11 SU run at the FBS level while the Gamecocks are still quite new to this level of football. Do not let the line scare you. The road team should take this in a rout! Lay it! LIBERTY (-)Â |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The NFL is the most publicly bet sport worldwide. When public money is involved the public teams get more attention. There are many Cowboys fans out there and they love their 'Boys. That serves us well in cases like this. Take a look at this current line being very nearly just a field goal as of game day morning. That implies that on a neutral field this would be anybody's game. I completely disagree with that assessment. Dallas finally won a road playoff game last season for the first time in a very long time. The fact is the Cowboys often are great at hammering bad teams and inflating their stats in those games but then struggling against quality opponents. It has been this way for many years and has not really shown any signs of changing. Consider this also when assessing whether these teams are equal. Who would you rather have coaching your team? Shanahan or McCarthy? How about QB? Big-game mistake prone Prescott or up and coming Purdy who is off to a phenomenal start this season. The Niners are arguably the best run NFL organization. This team has done things the right way and is running a solid ship. Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great! The Niners are built to be a much better big-game team and, in fact, there is another key stat that supports that as well as supporting our play here. The Niners are 7-0 ATS in last 7 home games against an NFC opponent with a winning record. Keep in mind the 3-1 Cowboys have revenge here but they had that last year too when they faced the Niners in the playoffs after losing to them in the post-season before that too. Yes, that was the 2nd straight season that ended for Dallas in the post-season at San Francisco. Revenge is often over-played and the Cowboys could not get their revenge then and they will not get it now. Dallas overlooked Arizona two weeks ago and lost there. The Cowboys 3 wins are against teams that currently have a combined 3-9 record this season. At least the Niners have beaten a couple teams that have a .500 record so far this season plus they hammered the same Cardinals team the Cowboys overlooked. This is the difference of a well-run professional organization compared to a team that does not have the same leadership from top to bottom. This is a value line for the home team in my opinion. Lay it! 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-) |
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10-08-23 | Eagles -3.5 v. Rams | Top | 23-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:05 ET - The Rams won the Super Bowl in February of 2022. Then they went 5-12 in the 2022 season that followed that. Which team is LA this season? Well it is still a little too early to tell for sure but Los Angeles certainly is not at the level of the Super Bowl team. I know Cooper Kupp is back this week for the Rams but he may not be performing at his typical elite level in his first game back. Both teams have some injury issues but Rams hip injuries to Matthew Stafford plus their starting RB could keep those guys from being as strong as usual. If you look at the week 1 stats when the Rams beat the Seahawks you will know that the result was not commensurate with the stats. Other than LA has two losses, including to a struggling Bengals team, and an OT win last week over the Colts in which the Rams blew a huge lead. I just do not think this Rams team is on the level this Eagles team is. Philly is on a mission to get back to the Super Bowl and to win it this time. They have a road game on deck in New York but against the Jets rather than the long-time rival (but struggling) Giants. That said, there is clearly no lookahead here and I expect a very focused Eagles team to come out and dominate in the trenches in this one. Yes I know Fletcher Cox is out for Philly but they have more defensive line depth than they use to. Eagles off an OT win versus Washington in which they gave up a late score to the Commanders that forced OT. That was only a 3-point win but 16 of 18 wins before that came by 5 or more points for the Eagles. In other words, if you like them to win here you can also see why you can feel comfortable laying the current number of 4 points too. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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10-08-23 | Ravens -4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens -4.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - We get some line value here because the Steelers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings but this year Pittsburgh is way down in my opinion. I know they are 2-2 on the year but their stats tell the real story. The Steelers do not run or throw well. They also do not defend the pass well and do not stop the run. The Ravens have edges all over the field in this one. They also have revenge on their minds from losing the most recent meeting late last season. Remember that Lamar Jackson was hurt last season and missed BOTH meetings with the Steelers. Look for the Pittsburgh defense to struggle with him in this one! The Ravens have great numbers on defense so far this season and big rushing numbers on offense. That is a combination that can win plenty of road games and especially when Harbaugh is your coach and your QB is healthy! The Steelers were very fortunate to beat the Browns (just look at the stats from that one) and their other win was against a dysfunctional Raiders team. Now they face a Ravens team with which coach Harbaugh has produced only one losing season in his 15-year tenure! Steelers QB Pickett expected to play but could be running for his life with this one and they are still without a starting WR plus now lost their starting TE to injury! 10* BALTIMORE -4.5 |
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10-08-23 | Jaguars v. Bills -4.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET in London, UK -Current line as of about 4 hours before kick-off is a 4.5 and this is a great value. Buffalo got their wake up call early this season as they already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders the next week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not looking back and certainly showing they are not done yet because they have now won 3 straight games and scored more than 35 points in each win! Buffalo did it again last week with a huge victory over Miami and the Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road in London. In fact, note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won eight in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. That trend continues here as Jacksonville is over-rated in my opinion. Yes they have an edge here in that they were already in London for this games as the knocked off the Falcons here last week. However, the yardage was roughly equal in that game and Atlanta actually had more first downs in the game but were done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit. We get line value here because of the scheduling situation seeming to so strongly favor the Jags. I might argue that Jacksonville having now been in London for so long that it could even be a distraction for them in preparations for this game. Plus the Bills have been one of the top teams in the NFL in recent seasons. The Jaguars had some good fortune last season but this team is still not on the Bills level and that 8-0 ATS situation I mentioned above will turn into 9-0 ATS here! 10* BUFFALO (-) |
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10-07-23 | Kentucky v. Georgia -14.5 | Top | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
NCAAF Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - Kentucky just beat Florida and they are 5-0 SU this season and 4-0 ATS against FBS foes as their only non-cover was against an FCS school. Also, the Wildcats 4-0 ATS last 4 against Georgia. The Bulldogs enter this game 0-4-1 ATS on the season. So all of these perfect angles favor a play on the big dog Cats in this one and yet I am on the Dawgs! The fact is this line is 14.5 (as of game day morning) for a reason! Why would a game involving two ranked teams have one team laying more than 2 touchdowns? Exactly! The odds makers know what they are doing folks and I am expecting an absolute blowout home win here. Georgia has not been as impressive early this season and that is why they are still seeking first ATS win. However, this does not change the fact they are undefeated SU and national champs, etc. Also, the only team that Kentucky has faced this season that had a winning record last season was the FCS school Eastern Kentucky and they were only 7-5 this season. Yes beating Florida last week was big for the Wildcats but the Gators are not what they were a few years back. Also, Kentucky ran all over the Gators but the Bulldogs won't allow that here in their house. This will force the Wildcats to pass and their passing attack is still suspect. There are a number of injury concerns for Kentucky entering this one as well. So, analyzing all the variables here, I am fully expecting a blowout win and have no hesitation in facing the triple perfect trends ATS that are noted above. 10* GEORGIA (-) |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +5.5 v. Texas | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
NCAAF Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET @ Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas - Current line, as of about 6 hours before kick off is a solid 5.5 and this is a huge revenge game for the Sooners. I know revenge is overplayed but this is not just any revenge game. That's because these teams have been meeting for over 100 years! You read that right, they meet each other every year in the Red River Rivalry in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas and this neutral site game is a big deal for these two schools. Before last year's shellacking, each of the most recent 4 meetings had been decided by 8 or less points. I expect another tighter game here in this year's match-up but sense an upset. We'll grab the points as added insurance but Oklahoma and Texas off to great starts this season but the Sooners - unlike in their first year under Venable last season - are a very confident bunch this time around. Texas won 49 to 0 last season! You read that right...49 to 0 and it was complete domination. Yes, Ewers has been great at QB for the Longhorns but Gabriel (missed last season's game due to injury) has also been fantastic this season for the Sooners. Gabriel will make up for missing last year's game and OU will make up for getting blown out. Texas has not won B2B games in the Red River Rivalry since 2008/2009 and that win in '09 was by just 3 points. The last time the Longhorns won B2B games in the RRR and would have covered a spread of 5.5 was when they won the 2005/2006 match-ups. So yes it has been over 15 years! I like the odds when you consider those facts and though I think UT deserves the hype they are getting early this season, I also feel that OU is on a mission this year and they are much better than the markets are giving them credit for here. Give me the big points! 10* OKLAHOMA (+) points |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Illinois Illini (-) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I was on Nebraska earlier this season when they scored just 14 points at Colorado. Yes that is the over-hyped Buffaloes that are not very good defensively. In the Buffs other 4 games against teams not named Nebraska they allowed an average of 42 points per game! Again, the Cornhuskers put up a measly 14 points. Here lies the problem with this 2-3 Huskers team is that they only scored decently in two wins over two very bad teams. Louisiana Tech lost again last night and only had 3 wins in each of the last two seasons. Also, Northern Illinois is just 1-4 this season. Those are the Huskers two wins. In their other 3 games this season they have scored an average of just 10 points. Yes one of those games was Michigan (last week) but what the hell happened in the other games? Exactly! Not a whole helluva lot! I am not big on Illinois this year but they are home laying just 3.5 points (as of early game day morning) and this is as much a play against the Huskers as it is a play on the Illini. Note that Illinois has faced Penn State and Kansas this season and those two teams are a combined 9-1 on the year with the Jayhawks only loss coming to undefeated Texas. So the point is that the Illini might be a little better than their record shows and they are 2-1 in their other games. The Illini are coming off an ugly loss to Purdue on the scoreboard but the yardage in that game was about equal. The Illini will bounce back here at home and though Matt Rhule will eventually get things going at Nebraska it will take time. His first year at Temple he was 2-10 SU and his first year at Baylor he was 1-11 SU. This is his first year at Nebraska and he has 2 wins so far but against very bad teams and when you look at his remaining schedule it will be tough to get wins for sure. Unlike Rhule, Brett Bielema is in his 3rd year at Illinois and the Illini had gone 2-6 the covid year before he got here and then went 5-7 and then 8-4 last season. So the Bielema project is much further along than the Rhule project at this point in time. Also, taking a look at the Illini, again their other 2 losses this season they were a dog and those 2 teams they lost to are a combined 9-1 this season. The loss to Purdue is the one outlier for Illinois and that just happened. Teams often bounce back off embarrassing losses like that and I expect the Illini will do just that here. 10* ILLINOIS (-) |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6 v. Commanders | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +6 @ Washington Commanders @ 8:15 ET - Both teams off tough losses last week but the Commanders was even tougher the way I see it. They lost in OT at Philly and that is a divisional match-up for Washington and was a physical battle that took a lot out of them. The Bears, on the other hand, are coming off a non-conference battle versus the Broncos. Though it is still sickening to Chicago that they blew a huge lead against Denver and lost, I also think they will be better set physically and mentally for this match-up at DC. Note that Chicago has lost 14 straight games SU and is on the road here yet getting less than TD. Must be a mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about purported "odds maker mistakes" and this is particularly true in the NFL. In other words, grab the points with the team on a 14-game losing streak. Chicago is 0-6 ATS last 6 road games but the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in Commanders games this season. The latter of those two trends is the one I see continuing here. The Bears dominated their game statistically but were done in by turnovers last week. Conversely, Washington was outgained by Philly and keep in mind that even includes all the yardage the Commanders picked up at the end of regulation with a game-tying drive when Eagles went in to prevent defense. I like the fact the Bears showed improvement on both sides of the ball last week and they will build off that here and actually have a good shot at finally getting back into the win column. At the very least, they get the road cover here the way I see it! 10* CHICAGO +6 |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -6 @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ 8 ET - One could argue that Louisiana Tech's best player on offense is QB Hank Bachmeier. He might be out again this week but even if he does play he will not be 100% due to shoulder injury. One could also argue that the Bulldogs best player on defense is senior linebacker Brevin Randle and he will not play in this game as he has been suspended for a head stomp in the win at UTEP. Louisiana Tech was actually outgained by the Miners in that victory and UTEP is not a good football team. Yes the Hilltoppers overall stats are not great this season but they also played Ohio State and, as expected, were thoroughly dominated by the Buckeyes. That is certainly impacting their stats. Keep in mind, they went 3-1 SU in their other 4 games and the lone WKU loss was by just 3 points while each of the 3 wins was by a margin of at least 17 points! Louisiana Tech's only other FBS win, besides the unimpressive win over UTEP last week, was a 5-point win over a bad FIU team. The Bulldogs have 3 losses this season and 2 of those have been by at least 14 points and I expect this one will be too! QB Austin Reed is solid for the Toppers and he is the healthier of the QBs here and overall the road favorite has big edges over a home dog that is simply a bad football team. They have won just 3 games each of the past two seasons and their win at UTEP last week was their first road win in 17 tries dating back to the 2020 season. Yes they are now back home for this one but a streak of 16 straight road losses prior to last week shows just how bad this team really is. I like the road team to get the win here and love the fact the line has dropped down some and is below a TD. The value is with the road favorite against a wounded home dog dealing with some issues on both sides of the ball. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY -6 |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3.5 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 8 ET - This line is around a 3.5 as of very early gameday morning and I am expecting a solid win and cover for MTSU here. They are at home and coming off a turnover-fueled loss at Western Kentucky last week. The game against WKU is a big one for the Blue Raiders and so I did some research on this and they have lost a few in a row when facing the Hilltoppers and the result has been a big bounce back effort the following week. In fact, MTSU is now a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 6 times when off a game against Western Kentucky. Look for that trend to continue here as they catch Jacksonville State off a last-gasp fortunate win and cover at Sam Houston. They rallied late against the Bearkats for a game-tying touchdown with the necessary two point conversion as well! Then the Gamecocks got the win in overtime. Not only that, this big comeback OT win was on the road. I feel that will have taken a lot out of Jacksonville State and they did give up 300 yards of passing offense to a Sam Houston team that had been very weak on offense this season. Now the Gamecocks face a Middle Tennessee State team angry off a loss and, keep in mind, turnovers played a key role in that defeat at Western Kentucky! MTSU has faced the much tougher schedule and that is offering huge line value here! Trust me, there is a reason this 1-4 Blue Raiders team is favored over this 4-1 Jacksonville State team and the line is no mistake! Lay it! 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (-) |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Under head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants have been strong off a loss. They won at Arizona in Week 2 after ugly home loss to Dallas the week before. Now, off an ugly road loss against a strong 49ers team, the Giants are at home and ready to respond. Not only are they 12-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday night game, they also went 4-0 ATS last season when they were at home and coming off a loss. That means that, under coach Daboll, the Giants are a perfect 4-0 ATS when at home and off a loss. I know they are 1-2 SU this season and have some ugly stats but, keep in mind, the Giants two losses were to a pair of the best teams in the NFL and the Cowboys and Niners are now a combined 7-1 SU on the season. Yes, the Seahawks are 2-1 SU this season but 2 of their 3 games have been against teams that are combined 2-6 SU on the season! Early in the season you can get some extra line value based on early market perception influenced by a lack of factoring for the schedules. By the way, so far this season, the Chiefs and Eagles failed to cover on the Thursday night games and each covered their very next game. Look for the Giants, after the ATS beatdown at San Francisco, to continue that trend. I love the fact that the Giants have yet to get an ATS cover this season as that has led to line value here. We step in and take advantage. The Seahawks are off B2B covers but this followed a 1-9 ATS stretch dating back to last season and I feel Seattle is very over-valued here on the road. The Giants have the rest edge here. Again, consider the strength of schedule too. The Seahawks have faced 3 non-playoff teams from last season that went a combined 21-30 SU. The Giants have a win in the game they were supposed to win and a pair of losses in games against teams that went, including post-season, a combined 28-11 SU last season and are also now 7-1 SU this season so far. The home dog is the play here and, though 1.5 is the dominant number, there is some 2 out there as well. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS + points |
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10-01-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Jets | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - I am not a big fan of laying big points in the NFL but this Jets team is really bad right now. Currently this line is in the 8.5 range but there is some 8 out there and I am expecting a double digit road win here. Even though the NYJ defense can be solid and will do their best here, this offense just can not be trusted at all. They have been so bad as many are questioning the entire QB situation of course ever since Rodgers went down with injury right away in week 1. That game in week 1 was a bit of a miracle win for New York and now reality has quickly set in. The same holds true for the Chiefs. They had a shocking loss in week 1 but their reality has set in now as they are off B2B wins and really dominated the Bears last week. I know it was just "da Bears" but the defending champs are a confident group that really has their offense clicking now on all cylinders. The Jets had 171 yards last week and the Chiefs had over 450 yards of offense last week. This will be a blowout. KC will have some extra focus here and will really bring an A game effort here. Even though they are the defending champs, the primetime games still carry extra weight. Having lost the first one this season is something the Chiefs have not forgotten and they want to make amends for that right here right now in New York. I look for them to do just that. The last 6 times on MNF that they were facing a team off a SU loss they showed no mercy to say the least. KC went 6-0 ATS in that situation and they do it again here as the Jets struggles on offense will be the key culprit here. 10* KANSAS CITY (-) points |
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10-01-23 | Commanders +9 v. Eagles | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +9 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - First off some technical stuff here. The Commanders just got throttled at home by the Bills last week - we were on Buffalo in easy win - but Washington is in a perfect 7-0 ATS spot here. Generally I like decent teams off horrible losses and the Commanders have a great divisional angle here. When they are playing a divisional foe and Washington is off a double digit ATS loss and the team they are playing is on a winning streak of at least 2 games plus playing with revenge, the Commanders have covered 7 times in a row. Sometimes revenge is overplayed and I know Washington won at Philly the last time these teams met and it ended the Eagles unbeaten start to last season. That said, Philly wants this game but they are on short rest off a MNF Game plus still have been dealing with some injury issues. I am not saying they won't get revenge and at least win this game but I think asking them to win this by double digits is asking too much. Eagles are 3-0 this season but statistically have not been that dominant. They will look to pound the ground game and grind out a win here but Washington has enough firepower to keep this one close. The last 5 times Philly entered a game off a SU road win they have gone 3-2 SU but all 3 wins were by 7 or less points. I look for a very tight game here as the Commanders respond off an embarrassing loss. Look for the above trend I mentioned to improve to 8-0 ATS as the dog gets the cover here. 10* WASHINGTON +9 |
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10-01-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET - The dominant number as of about 5 hours before kickoff on this one is a 3 but there is some 3.5 out there and I would recommend jumping on that now if you can. The Jaguars are off B2B losses and the Falcons have the better defense and are off their first loss of the season. I could see Atlanta bouncing back huge here off a defeat in which they scored just 6 points. They will take advantage of a weak Jaguars defense. Much is made of the travel here and that Jacksonville is use to it and the Falcons are not - in terms of London games. But to put this in proper perspective, the USA is so big that went teams go East to West they are sometimes traveling 5 to 6 hours in the air just to get to the West Coast and it is a 3-hour time difference to adjust the body clocks. The point is that going Atlanta to London is about 7 hours in the air on a non-stop flight and when you land there it is a 5-hour difference on the body clock. So the point is that going to London for an NFL team in the Eastern Time Zone is not much different than going to a West Coast NFL city. Speaking from experience as I live in Europe right now, the travel going back to USA is tougher for sure. It is longer and more difficult to adjust the body clocks. That said Jaguars being used to this trip is not relevant in my book. Both teams coming off ugly losses and I trust the better defense getting points! Very quietly these Falcons have allowed an average of only 18 ppg their last 9 games as they finished last season strong too on the defensive side of the ball. The Jaguars have a long-term history of struggles against NFC opposition and, within that, they have actually lost 10 in a row ATS when facing a team from NFC South. I look for that play-against situation to reach 11-0 ATS here as Falcons have great shot at outright win but should at least get the cover. 10* ATLANTA + points |
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09-30-23 | Baylor +9 v. Central Florida | Top | 36-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) vs Central Florida @ 3:30 ET - Current line is in the 9 or 9.5 range here and I am going to challenge the big favorite to win this by double digits. Baylor is expected to Shapen back at QB for this one while Central Florida is still without Plumlee. I know the Bears are 1-3 this season but their 3 losses this season were to an improved Texas State team and to Utah and Texas! These are all solid teams that entered this week's action with a combined 11-1 record on the season! I don't think Baylor is what they use to be BUT they are also much better than their record shows and Shapen is a very strong QB that will give this team a huge boost this week. UCF is also not what they use to be and, though they have been surviving without Plumlee in recent weeks they will struggle more without him in a tougher game like this. The Bears feel their backs are to the wall and they get their starting QB back and there is a feeling of "now or never" for Baylor. I think they will come out strong and this Knights team is not what they use to be. UCF is 3-1 this season but 2 of the wins against FCS schools and one of those was against Boise State and the Broncos are not as strong as in the past. Also, coming off a loss against Kansas State last week that ended their unbeaten start to the season, the Knights may be thinking they just come home and all is well again because they are in the Bounce House. However, this Bears team is going to come to play and an outright win would not surprise me. At the very least I expect the road dog to lose this one by only a one score margin if they even lose. 10* BAYLOR (+) points |
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09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU +1.5 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 10:15 ET - I like the underdog line value after the line move. This line has swung toward the Bearcats and currently we can get home dog BYU at +1 or +1.5 as of very early gameday morning. The fact is that Cincinnati had a lot of coaching changes heading into the season and even the assistant coaches that Scott Satterfield had ended up taking "better" opportunities elsewhere. Of course former head coach Luke Fickell moved onto Wisconsin. The point is that this one, for me, is as much a play against Cincy as it is a play on BYU. This is a tough spot for the Bearcats the way I see it. Yes they knew that beating Oklahoma last week was a lot to ask and sure enough they lost by two TDs. Still, the Cats did want that home game badly and now they are traveling on the road on a short week and in the thin air of Provo in Utah. This Brigham Young team is off a loss but they faced a tough Kansas team that is now 4-0 on the season. The Jayhawks are a different team under head coach Lance Leipold and there is no real shame in that loss for BYU. Still, that was the first loss of the Cougars on the season and I look for them to bounce back here at home and though the competition was weaker it is still worth noting something here. Brigham Young won first two home games this season by a combined score of 55 to 16 and they will make the most of this spot as it is their first home game in 3 weeks. Both teams have a bye on deck but I like the fact Bearcats are on the road here. Cougars will take advantage. The Cats lost at home to Miami-Ohio which is bad news for sure about the current state of this program. The fact that is their only ATS loss in 4 games this season while BYU is 1-3 ATS this season is also helping to give us line value here. Lets take advantage. 10* BYU + points |
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09-28-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky -6 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 7:30 ET - The dominant line here as of early game day morning is 6.5 but there is some 6 out there and I am laying it. I am going to start here by talking about Colorado State which may surprise you but it is with good reason. What does Colorado State have to do with this game? Plenty! The Rams had the memorable devastating double-OT loss to Colorado two weeks ago. They never should have blown the big lead and lost that game and it was heartbreaking. Following the gut-wrenching loss they were going on the road to Middle Tennessee State. Situations from the scheduling gods don't get much better than that for the Blue Raiders. They were catching a team playing B2B games away from home and they were catching them off a soul-crushing loss. How did MTSU handle it? Like the very weak team they are. The Blue Raiders lost outright even though they were favored in that one. Now they face a Western Kentucky team that has dominated them in recent meetings and also comes in angry off B2B losses. The Hilltoppers are going to roll here at home. Not only have they won big in the last two meetings, they are also on a 6-0 ATS run in weeknight home games. You know the Toppers are fired up with this primetime weeknight opportunity on their home field and they will pull away as this one goes along! WKU improves to 7-0 ATS in this spot! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-) |
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09-25-23 | Eagles -4.5 v. Bucs | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 7:15 ET - The current dominant number on this one is 5 though you might find a stray 4.5 out there - at least as of very early game day morning. This is a battle of early season unbeatens and the Eagles have started at least 3-0 (last season started 8-0), 3 times in the past 9 seasons. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has not gone 3-0 in nearly TWO decades as you have to go all the way back to 2005. The Bucs have been around since 1976 - nearly a HALF century - and yet they only have started a season 3-0 THREE times! As you can see with historical odds like this, the Eagles certainly are the likely team to win this SU but what about the all-important cover? Well, Philly has 9 straight wins by 5 or more points and 15 of last 17 by 5 or more points. So 5 may not seem like a key number but it has been for the Eagles and, either way, look for a win by at least a TD in this one. Tampa Bay's last 7 SU losses have all come by 6 or more. The Eagles are so strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that will be key here. Also, imagine you are starting a team would you rather have Jalen Hurts at QB or Baker Mayfield? That is no disrespect to the latter but I have a feeling he is going to get a reality check this week against a tough Eagles defensive line that will pressure the hell out of him. Also, Sirianni is now 25-11 SU in regular season NFL as a head coach while Bowles is 36-50 SU as a head coach. The Eagles also have the rest edge after playing on Thursday last week so they have had extra time off compared to TB as the Bucs beat the Bears Sunday. The Eagles and Buccaneers have each played the Vikings this season. The Bucs were outgained 369 to 242 by Minny. Philly outgained Minnesota 430 to 374. In other words, the D numbers were similar but the Eagles offense put up nearly 200 yards more than TB. The Bucs are a decent team but they are over-rated right now. Philly is a Super Bowl contender. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) the points |
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09-24-23 | Steelers v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 23-18 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - This is more of a play against the Steelers than a play on the Raiders but either way I do like this spot for laying the points with Las Vegas. The line is available at a 2.5 as of early game day morning and the Steelers are on a short week and traveling west and their off a key divisional win. They were heavily outgained by the Browns and so it is a deceiving win for the Black and Gold. This Pittsburgh team is just not that good as I have written before about them heading into this season. The Steelers have been continuing a downward trajectory and I faded them when they were destroyed by the Niners in Week 1. I know that they got the win last week but that was a gift-wrapped game from the Browns and the stats show that Pittsburgh has really struggled early this season. The Raiders are off an ugly loss but they faced an angry Bills team that is one of the best teams in the league. Buffalo was playing its home opener and was off a loss and the Raiders were in the wrong place at the wrong time. From the start of the season until October 9th, this is the only home game for Las Vegas and so they will make the most of this home opener. Also, under coach McDaniels they covered five of six times ATS when facing a team that was off a SU/ATS win like the Steelers are here. Pittsburgh started last season 1-4 and the year before 1-3 and Tomlin is in for another slow start this season and they will not be so lucky again this week like they were hosting Cleveland. First road game of the season for the Steelers and the Raiders have the rest edge and situational edge and roll huge at home. 10* LAS VEGAS (-) |
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09-24-23 | Bills -5 v. Commanders | Top | 37-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - Look around the league at undefeated teams after just 2 weeks of the seasons and one of the surprises is Washington. That is helping give us some value this week because this team is not that good and it is an undefeated team that deserves to be faded now. Adding to the value is the fact that Bills are just 1-1 this season. Buffalo already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders last week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not done yet because now the mantra is to prove they can win on the road. The Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road. Also, there are triple perfect angles supporting this play. Note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won six in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. They will carry momentum here! As for Commanders coach Ron Rivera he has not fared well when his team has at least a .500 record on the season and his team is installed as an underdog as his teams have lost seven in a row ATS in that situation. Also, the Commanders have a divisional foe on deck in the form of the Eagles and they have lost four (or five depending on line) in a row ATS when Philadelphia is up next for them. All this is just situational data but the fact is it further supports our play here. Buffalo has been one of the top teams in the league in recent seasons while these Commanders have not had a winning season since the 2016 season. This line is around a 5 as of early gameday morning and this is in an excellent value. 10* BUFFALO (-) |
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09-23-23 | Iowa +14.5 v. Penn State | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7:30 ET - It is impossible to forecast the exact timing of the rain but showers followed by heavy rain and some wind - not too windy but possible gusts - are moving into the area because of Tropical Storm Opheila. State College, PA is over 200 miles away the ocean but the fact is those bands of rain are coming deep inland and I love having big points with an underdog when conditions are a little bit sloppy. This is particularly true when it is a defensive-minded dog that likes to run the football. I know that the Nittany Lions have a great record so far and have looked good but they benefited firstly from rather easy opponents then first two weeks - dysfunctional West Virginia team and an FCS team (Delaware) - and then secondly from Illinois turning the ball over 5 times against them last week! Penn State is a rock solid team and I really like their QB too. They have the definite aerial attack edge in this match-up but you can tell by the low total posted on this game, this one is expected to be a low-scoring defensive-minded rush-oriented match-up. This Hawkeyes team has a very tough defense and they are well-coached. Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the nation and has been here for a quarter-century now! The Hawkeyes have won the the last two meetings outright and, while I am not anticipating that here, I am expecting this one to be decided by a one-score margin. That means excellent line value with Iowa available at +14.5 and no less than +14 as of early gameday morning. We'll take it! 10* IOWA + points |
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09-23-23 | UCLA v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs UCLA Bruins @ 3:30 ET - This line has been all over the place because of the uncertain status of QB Cameron Rising for the Utes. Let me tell you what we do know about this match-up. Kyle Whittingham is a better coach than Chip Kelly. The UCLA young quarterback has played well but makes his first ever PAC-12 road start. The Bruins are playing right into the teeth of revenge as UCLA won a tight one (though double digit final margin of 10) over Utah last season. That was the 1st win in 4 tries for Kelly with the Bruins against Whittingham with the Utes. The first 3 meetings...how did those go? Utah won all 3 by at least 20 each team and with an average margin of victory at 32 points! There is nothing average about that and the Utes defense got embarrassed last season at UCLA. That is where one of the biggest keys lies in this rematch. Everyone is talking about QB Rising and the fact he may miss again but the Utes offense has still been decent and they still have the better defense in this match-up plus they are at home and plus this Utah defense wants to prove that last season was an aberration. A lot of key factors including a solid low number here (3.5 as of early gameday morning) have me all over the Utes in this one! 10* UTAH (-) points |
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09-21-23 | Giants +11 v. 49ers | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Laying double digits in the NFL is always a scary proposition in my book and the situation becomes even tougher on a short week. That's because a lot of things have to go right to beat any NFL team by double digits. That is why you don't see many double digit lines in the NFL. Being fully prepared to blowout a team is even tougher when playing on a Thursday after a Sunday win over a divisional foe. SF has failed to cover 6 of last 7 on Thursday when coming off a SU win in their prior game. This line is a solid 10.5 at the time of this posting and I feel we have excellent value with the big road dog in this one. Everyone is still thinking about the Giants losing to Dallas 40 to 0 in Week 1 primetime but are forgetting that the Cowboys only had 265 yards of TOTAL offense in that game! To put that in proper perspective, this 49ers team (which certainly is strong and has a solid defense too) allowed 297 PASSING yards to the Rams in their win last week! So lets not bury the Giants just yet in comparison to the Niners. The Giants got caught still lamenting the embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys when they were down by 21 midway through the 3rd quarter at Arizona last week. However, the Giants rally did two things last week. It gave them a win of course, which is big, but the bigger thing it did was give them confidence. This Giants team feels much different now emotionally and mentally heading into this battle with the Niners and they have done very well as a road dog under HC Brian Daboll as they went 8-2 ATS in that role last season. I know Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants here but guess who Matt Breida started his career with? San Francisco of course! Watch Breida have a huge game against his former team and the Giants surprise in this one! I am not saying they win this one outright but I am feeling confident in a game decided by a one score margin. Give me the double digits here! Daboll will have his team ready and he was Coach of the Year last season and will not be embarrassed again on primetime like they were in that sloppy week one loss to the Cowboys. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+) |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina -6.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina (-) vs Georgia State @ 7:30 ET - This series has been dominated by the road team recently and, in my opinion, that is keeping the line (6.5 at time of this posting) on this one lower than it should be. Coastal Carolina is really rolling under their new coach after all the changes made after last season's last collapse. I like this Chanticleers team. I am not crazy about their defense but they have enough offense to dominate in this one. Keep in mind, new head coach Tim Beck was offensive coordinator at NC State and he has this offense firing on all cylinders now. They have played the tougher schedule than Georgia State thus far. The Chanticleers had to face the Bruins at UCLA and having that one really tough game and a SU loss helps them here. Georgia State is 3-0 SU but has not really been challenged yet. The Chanticleers are 3-0 ATS this season as they did cover in that SU loss at UCLA. The Panthers have been allowing more points than Coastal Carolina and CC has the stronger offense too. Combining all that with the home field edge, the play here is the home team as laying less than a TD is a real bargain here and the current line is 6.5 on this one at time of posting. The Chanticleers are 100% ATS this season and I am happy to test that here. Look for 4-0 ATS after this one goes in the books! 10* COASTAL CAROLINA (-) |
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09-18-23 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers + vs New Orleans Saints @ 7:15 ET - Dennis Allen is head coach of the Saints. With the win he got last week, his NFL career head coaching record is 14-38. That is not a mistype. 14-38 is his career record. I know the Saints could win this division this season but the NFC South is truly a bit of an up for grabs type of division these days so that is not saying much. I personally think even the Panthers could ultimately challenge. Frank Reich was offensive coordinator of the Eagles when they beat the mighty Patriots in Feb of 2018. He then went to be head coach of the Colts and had a 40-33 record with them including taking them to the playoffs twice. His record is not fantastic but Reich has a leg up on Allen when it comes to head coaching edge in this match-up the way I see it. I know the Saints have the more established QB now and the Panthers were done in by turnovers last week but they will be better here at home in week 2. Also, they actually outgained the Falcons by 60 yards in that week 1 loss. That is the same Atlanta team that beat GB yesterday and though that win was by just as single point, the Falcons actually outgained the Packers by 200 yards and actually only punted ONCE the entire game! That is domination and the points is that the way the Panthers defense played in week one looks even more impressive now as the Falcons are 2-0 and flying high on offense. The offense of Carolina will be better this week and Reich's background is offense. So the key here is this is a solid defense that can contain the Saints offense. New Orleans benefitted from turnovers in their week 1 win so this is another point of value here in evaluating week 2 match-ups. Now with this line at a solid +3 and you might even find some 3.5 starting to show up, this is an excellent home dog spot. The Panthers were 4-0 ATS in home games last season when coming off a road loss in their prior game. They respond at home here and I expect an outright upset win but will grab the points just in case. 10* CAROLINA + |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +3 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots + vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The dominant number as of early game day morning is 2.5 but there is a little bit of 3 out there. Either way I am looking for an outright win here for the home team but it is nice any time you have a line that sets up where a 2 point loss is still a win as well and that is the case here. First off, I like the home dog factor here. Secondly, I like the fact the Patriots fell short against the Eagles despite outgaining them last week. Did you see how Philly than ran all over the Vikings Thursday? Give this Patriots defense some credit for holding Philly in check last week! As for the Dolphins, they are off a shootout win and I love fading teams off high-scoring wins like that. The fact Miami snuck away with the victory over the Chargers even though they gave up a pile of points and big yardage set this one up well. The Dolphins may not fully realize how much they need to focus on the defensive side of the field for this one. They come in 1-0 but off an effort in which they allowed 34 points plus huge yardage on the ground. After playing in LA last week the Dolphins now go coast to coast for this one and the Pats threw for over 300 yards last week. I know Miami piled up yardage too but their D is a weakness. I trust NE to get some stops here and the Pats offense will be able to move the ball all game long. They threw well against Philly plus the Dolphins proved last week they are susceptible on the ground so the Patriots should enjoy plenty of success here on offense and I expect the defense to hold up. 10* NEW ENGLAND + points |
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09-17-23 | Jets +8.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this as of early gameday morning is 8.5 and this an over-reaction to the Cowboys 40-0 win last week and the Jets losing Aaron Rodgers to season-ending injury. Keep in mind, Dallas actually only won the yardage battle by 94 yards last week. That does not equate to a 40-point beatdown of course. That is not much of a yardage edge. The Jets have a very strong defense that can also create havoc and turnovers as the Cowboys did last week. In fact, the Jets proved that with their upset of Buffalo in OT Monday night. I know this is a short week for the Jets but it is still early in the season and you are still talking about fresh bodies that are in much less banged up than as the season goes on. Later in the season, short rest is more of a factor. The Cowboys were originally around a FG favorite in this game. Now they are favored by more than a TD. Take advantage of the line value here. The Cowboys are actually 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they are at home and coming off a game in which they scored 40 or more points! Look for Dallas, known to stumble at home in spots like this, to come in overconfident after last week's big road win over a division rival. Conversely, the Jets are well aware of the blowout win that the Cowboys just delivered in their own stadium (the stadium they share with the Giants) and they will be geared up and well prepared for the upset win here. Their defense will really test Prescott in this one just like they did against the Bills Allen. They may not get the outright upset but I expect this game to be decided by a one score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS + points |
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09-17-23 | Ravens +3.5 v. Bengals | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens + @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - As of early Sunday morning there is still some 3.5 available on this one and even if TE Andrews does not play for Baltimore I do expect them to get the cover in this match-up. Looking for an outright win but we will grab the points just in case. I am aware of RB Dobbins now out for the year for Baltimore. However, have you seen the different running backs the Eagles are using this year and how they ran all over Minnesota Thursday night. The point is that if a team has the right play-calling, a solid offensive line, and is well-coached they get their ground game going no matter who the running backs are. Of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is also an ultra-dangerous threat with his legs too and keeps defenses honest. He was not available when Ravens lost at Cincinnati in the post-season last year. The fact is, however, the Ravens significantly outgained the Bengals in their 3 match-ups last season even though the majority of those stats were without starting QB Jackson which, unlike RB, is absolutely an extremely critical position. You see where I am going with this...we are getting even more line value here because of the RB injury for the Ravens. This is a major revenge game for Baltimore and they used last week's blowout win over the Texans as a tune-up for this game. As for Cincinnati, they were in the process of a blowout loss last week at Cleveland. You might think that makes this a great spot for the Bengals but actually they have failed to cover 7 straight times when in the following situation: at home and favored by less than a TD and coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. That makes this a play against spot for Cincinnati and I look for this play-against angle to reach 8 WINNERS IN A ROW as this spot is further strengthened by the revenge aspect for the Ravens and the fact this is a division rival too. 10* BALTIMORE +3.5Â |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys + @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - The Cowboys are catching the Longhorns at the right time to hang tough in this game. There is a lot of value here with Wyoming currently catching as much as 30 points as of early gameday morning. This Cowboys defense returned virtually everyone from last season's team and they are very solid on that side of the ball. Texas is off the huge win in upset fashion at Alabama last week and they have their Big 12 opener next week. Not only that, it is nearby Baylor who they are facing. The Longhorns and Bears do not get along at all. They are rivals and do not like each other so this is absolutely a sandwich spot for Texas. The Horns off the upset of Crimson Tide and opening their Big 12 portion of the season next week. Of course I am not saying the Longhorns lose this game but I just can not see them winning by more than 2 or 3 touchdowns. Wyoming has confidence from the OT win versus Texas Tech. Remember the Red Raiders beat this UT team last year! Again, I am not saying Wyoming is as good as is Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are as good as Texas! Not at all! I am just saying that you can see the Cowboys will not be intimidated here and they have a veteran defense and they have the added confidence of a 2-0 start. I think UT has been very benefited by the turnover margin early this season and this is the type of game where some of those bounces finally do not go their way. The Cowboys will hang around in this one and stay inside the inflated number. 10* WYOMING + points |
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09-16-23 | Penn State -14 v. Illinois | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - This line is holding at 14 as of early game day morning. Remember 2 weeks ago when Penn State punched it in late (just seconds left on the clock) for a "meaningless" TD against West Virginia that gave them a 23 point win in a game in which they were favored by 20 points? That is the kind of stuff to keep in mind when you are contemplating whether or not you are comfortable laying big points with a team. This Nittany Lions team is off to a hot start and yes I know they played an outclassed Delaware team last week but the fact is PSU is rolling with confidence on both sides of the ball right now. This is a much different situation than the last time they faced Illinois and this Illini defense is also much weaker than that one. That match-up I am referring to was only 2 years ago in 2021 but the Nittany Lions entered that game off their first loss of the season. They were demoralized and flat after their 5-0 start to the season came crashing to a halt against Iowa. Penn State went on to lose to Illinois in a crazy OT game of defensive prowess that took forever to finish in a multi-OT slugfest. Things are much different this time around and the Illini do not look nearly as strong for this rematch. Their defense is not as strong and Illinois is 0-2 ATS because they barely got by a MAC team in Week 1 and then got hammered by Kansas last week. Certainly Toledo is a respectable opponent and the Jayhawks are much more respectable than they used to be. However, now the Illini face a revenge-minded and stacked Penn State team that will not hesitate to pile up points even with a big late lead. I expect this one to possibly be tight early for a bit but eventually the much stronger road team pulls away for a win by at least a 3 TD margin the way I see it. There is also a perfect trend here that has gone undefeated the last 14 times involving Penn State. That is that when the Nittany Lions are entering a match-up against a conference foe and PSU is coming off B2B wins both SU and ATS, they have not failed to cover in any of the last 14. There is one push in the bunch and we could see a push here if this one lands on 14 but I am looking for another win by 20+ for this road team! 10* PENN STATE (-) |
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09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA -7.5 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - Maybe we will see -7 on this but I want to get this play written up and out to all my customers and the current number is 7.5 and 8 as of Friday morning. Army has some impressive stats already but they played Delaware State - an FCS school - and UL Monroe. Note that the latter (the Warhawks) have won only 8 games the past 3 seasons combined! The Black Knights are a solid scrappy team and can be a tough underdog. But they gave up a pile of points to the Roadrunners last season. I know that Army also scored well in that one but I look for the Runners to be much tougher defensively at home in the rematch. I know UTSA has not been overly impressive early this season but they faced a couple of in-state foes that really had it out for them. Texas State is improved - already upset Baylor - and Houston is a tough in-state foe. In terms of strength of schedule, it is really night and day between these two teams so far this season. Adding to the value here is that UTSA is fully aware that they will NOT have another home game until mid-October! So this is it until a month from now and they will make this one count and they will be relentless. Note that this line was double digits and now has moved down to almost a 7. I love spots like this where the betting markets have adjusted a line substantially. More often than not the move is not warranted. I get it that Army can be a tough dog but this Runners team is solid and has been great under the current regime and won about 75% of its games over 4+ seasons! In terms of covering the spread here, Army's last 8 losses in true road games have seen 6 come by a double digit margin. That is a 75% rate of double digit losses in road defeats in recent seasons that dates back to the 2020 season. More of the same here. 10* UTSA (-) |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6 v. Eagles | Top | 28-34 | Push | 0 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings + points @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:15 ET - Sure I would rather have 7+ points in this game rather than the current number of 6 or 6.5 as of early gameday but I am not going to let the line movement sway my original thoughts on this one. Those are summarized in the fact that this is a tough spot for the Eagles to win, let alone win big! Note that the Eagles were outplayed last week at New England. We had Philly and though they were up 16-0 at one point early on they really were fortunate and we were fortunate to get the win and cover there as they hung on for dear life late. Conversely the Vikings were done in by 3 turnovers in the home loss to Tampa Bay last week. Philly off a fortunate win and not realizing how badly they played because they still won. Vikings off an unfortunate loss and can't wait to get back on the field. That said, I love having the points in this match-up as Minnesota goes for revenge and they are angry too. They lost here last season but went 13-3 in the rest of their regular season games last season! Last week, the Eagles barely beat a Patriots team that is a mediocre .500 team the last three YEARS combined! In terms of technical angles, in the first quarter (four games) of a season the Eagles have lost 12 of 13 ATS when they are favored against a team that has a losing record and is off an ATS loss. Also, in early season (first quarter) games in the season like this, Philly has lost 14 of 18 ATS when facing a team with revenge. The key is the situation here and how these teams TRULY played last week and the fact we get about 6 points to work with here as well. However, I will also mention an interesting stat that the Eagles have gone 0-7 ATS when they have a Monday Night game on deck. Up next for Philly is a Monday night affair at Tampa Bay and I think the Eagles will think their overall clout and home field will be enough here versus the Vikings but this Philly team has issues on both sides of the ball right now. Minnesota got embarrassed here in an early season primetime game last season and they make up for that here in a big way as the Vikings might even pull off the shocker upset but I see at least a cover here. That said, I expect the play against trend involving the Eagles here makes it 8 IN A ROW in this one! 10* MINNESOTA + points |
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09-14-23 | Navy v. Memphis -14 | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -14 vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - Longtime followers know I am not big on laying big points in any sport. However, on occasion - when the situation is right - I will not hesitate to step in and lay the lumber. This is one of those rare cases. The Midshipmen are only as good as their QB. It has been that way for a long time and it is not changing anytime soon because they are so dependent on him with the type of offense they play. That said, scoring 24 points on Wagner in game they were favored by 42 points is not a good sign. Remember this was on the heels of a season opening shellacking at the hands of Notre Dame. Navy scored only 3 points in that game. No the Tigers are not the Fighting Irish. However, the Midshipmen have missed the mark ATS by at least 18 points in each of their first two games. That said, I have no hesitation here in rolling with a Memphis team that is so strong offensively that they can pile up big points here and Navy will not be able to keep up. Yes the Tigers faced overmatched Bethune-Cookman and Arkansas State so far but still they have looked solid on both sides of the ball. The way Memphis can score points very quickly and very well and the fact the D looked good against a Red Wolves team that averaged 25 points per game on offense in each of the first two seasons under head coach Butch Jones, don't be surprised if the Tigers roll huge here at home. Remember that big win last week was at Arkansas State and now they are at home here for this visit from Navy. 10* MEMPHIS -14 |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys -3 v. Giants | Top | 40-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Giants deserve some respect here but the Cowboys continue to have their number. I just do not see that changing here. Note that the Giants entered last season having gone 14-35 the 3 prior seasons. Then last year they made the post-season and even won a playoff game before getting blasted by the Eagles. However, New York started last season 6-1 and then went 3-6-1 the rest of the way in the regular season. This means that we are still talking about a team that, outside of last year's hot start to the season, has gone 17-41-1 in their other 59 regular season games the past 4 seasons. Yes, the Giants certainly showed improvement last season as they even made playoffs. However, isn't it concerning they won those games early in the season and then struggled the rest of the way? This is a classic case of getting line value because the better team in the match-up is on the road. With a line of -3, we are basically just asking the Cowboys to win this game. Dallas has actually had tremendous success in this role as they have covered 20 of last 23 (excluding pushes) when they are a divisional favorite of more than two points. The Giants, when I look at their receivers, just do not have the talent level to match a determined Dak Prescott with his bolstered receiving group and I feel the Cowboys will eventually put away in this game. Value with the short road favorite here. Lay it. 10* DALLAS (-) |
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09-10-23 | Eagles -3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this one as of game day morning is 3.5 and the Patriots saw 8 of their 9 losses (including all 4 at home) come by a margin of at least 4 points last season! Also, take a look at the Eagles final 9 games last season. Prior to a 3 point loss in the Super Bowl, Philadelphia had gone 9 straight games without a single game decided by less than 5 points. The point is that I am picking the winner in this game to be the Eagles and the above stats are also why I feel confident that laying the points is not an issue. Philadelphia is, of course, one of the best teams in the league right now. The Patriots, ironically Brady is being honored at today's game by the way, is nowhere near the level of team they use to be in the Tom Brady days. So the point is we are getting a lot of line value here considering the Eagles are not only expected to win their division this season, they are a Super Bowl contender again. Compare this to a Patriots team that many project will end up in last place in the AFC East this season. So, the point is that we have line value here on the surface and it looks even better as you dig deeper here. Jalen Hurts over Mac Jones at QB. A relentless Eagles defensive line attacking a key weakness in this Patriots team (offensive line shaky in preseason). Also, the Pats have some injury issues in the offensive line plus there were already concerns at the tackle positions. The Patriots will ride some emotions for awhile here (season opener at home and honoring Brady) but eventually the Eagles will pull away as the visitors in this match-up hold key edges all over the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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09-10-23 | 49ers -2 v. Steelers | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Look out! The Steelers are back! After all, they went 7-2 to close out last season to make sure Tomlin's long streak of having not had a losing season for the Steelers remained intact! Of course I am writing with sarcasm here because this Steelers team is not that strong ladies and gentlemen and this is a bargain line to have the much stronger team and essentially just ask them to win the game. The line is currently a -2 as of early gameday morning and the 49ers are coming off a fantastic season. They are the better team defensively, stronger at the all-important QB position, and are very well-coached. That is not to say Tomlin is not a good coach but the fact is San Francisco has the stronger roster and I really like what the Niners have been doing in recent seasons. As for Pittsburgh, now I come back to that 7-2 season-ending run. Two of the games were against the rival Ravens and they did manage a 1-1 split here. In the other 7 games however, the 6 wins the Steelers had came against teams that ALL had losing records when they faced them. Those 6 teams, at the time Pittsburgh met them, had a combined record of 30-44-1 and NONE of them had a winning record. All 6 of those teams ended up missing the playoffs and ALL 6 had DOUBLE DIGITS in losses at the end of the season. The point is that the Steelers season-ending run was not so impressive when you consider those factors and now they face a 49ers team that nearly went to the Super Bowl last season! Indeed, my money is on the Niners here at an absolute bargain price. This Steelers team is just nowhere near the team they use to be and last season was the 3rd time in 5 years that they have missed the post-season. 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-) |
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09-09-23 | Ole Miss -7 v. Tulane | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Saturday Ole Miss Rebels - points @ Tulane Green Wave @ 3:30 ET - Both teams off huge wins last week but Tulane did face the much tougher test but still it was impressive that Ole Miss scored 73 points unanswered after allowing a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play of the game! That said, from a technical standpoint, the Green Wave have not performed well in situations like this. They have failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times when they are home off a double digit ATS cover and are hosting a team that is off a straight-up win. Conversely, this situation sets up well for Ole Miss from a technical standpoint. The Rebels actually have covered nine straight times when they are favored by five or more points and facing a team off a win both SU and ATS. Outside of technical data here, I like the fact that Ole Miss had a great start last season and then faded late in the season. The Rebels have a little extra hunger here and will again do great in non-conference action this season. Of course the SEC the much tougher conference in comparison with the American Athletic Conference. That being said, this AAC team is off a great season but they lost quite a bit from that team and the Green Wave had a 2-win season the year before! In other words, Tulane is still a solid team but of course this is a program that is nowhere near the level of Ole Miss. I also feel the Rebels defense is improved entering this season while the Green Wave defense has taken a step back. This one could be close for awhile but eventually the visitors pull away. They simply have too much offense and are so stacked offensively and are well-coached and Tulane will not be able to keep up for the full 60 here. Wish we could lay less than a TD but I do expect the Rebels to win this by a double digit margin as that ATS streak I mentioned above reaches 10 straight wins! 10* Ole Miss Rebels - points |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska +3 v. Colorado | Top | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers + points @ Colorado Buffaloes @ Noon ET - There is some +3 still out there at the time of this posting though it looks like 2.5 could end up being the dominant number on this one. Either way, I like Nebraska as I am actually expecting an outright upset here so really I do not expect the points to be a factor. The Buffaloes are being anointed as title contenders now after just one game. Give credit to coach Sanders for having his guys ready and pulling off the massive upset of the Horned Frogs at TCU last week. However, it is one game! Now there is film out on this team. And guess what...the defense does NOT look good! They allowed over 540 yards to the Frogs last week! Conversely, the Cornhuskers allowed about 250 yards (less than HALF of what TCU allowed) as they fell just short at Minnesota. The Huskers know they should have won that game outright (they did cover ATS) and will be extra hungry for the outright win this week. Keep in mind, most everyone is sick of hearing about Colorado and coach "Prime" and this Cornhuskers defense will come to play and now there is film out on what the Buffaloes offense is capable of. The Huskers allowed just 55 rushing yards to a fantastic rushing team in Minnesota last week. Nebraska now faces a Buffs team that ran for only 55 yards last week. The Cornhuskers were done in by turnovers last week and keep in mind Coach Rhule is a solid coach with NFL experience too and he gives them a coaching edge here. Also, they actually ran for nearly 200 yards. So now we have a defensive-minded underdog with the rushing edge as well. I love spots like this and am going to challenge this over-hyped Colorado team to beat us through the air. Give coach Sanders and his group credit for the upset last week but things can change in a hurry in the college football world and that is particularly true of a new roster of players with a new coach that now has been introduced to the college football world. As they (unlike TCU) now have an idea of what is coming for them this week, one word describes the Cornhuskers here: READY! 10* NEBRASKA + points |
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09-08-23 | Illinois v. Kansas -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 28 m | Show |
Friday CFB 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -3 vs Illinois Illini @ 7:30 ET - This is not the Kansas of old - not under head coach Leipold - no way! As for the Illini - coach Bielema has a poor history in road openers (or 1st neutral site game - anything away from home to start season) and he is 0-2 ATS here with Illinois already. Overall, Illinois is 0-4 ATS L4 years in road openers, the last two with Bielema at the helm. Last week the Illini were at home at home and were favored by nearly double digits against Toledo and yet were outgained and had to win the game on a field goal with just a few seconds left on the clock. I know the Jayhawks pulled away late in their win over FCS opponent Murray State but they also were without starting QB Jalon Daniels who I believe was held out of that game simply because coach Leipold felt they could easily beat the FCS Racers without him. They did end up ultimately winning 48-17 and Daniels is likely getting the start this week. Either way, I like the fact that the Jayhawks are returning one of the most experienced rosters in the country, Leipold is really starting to build something here, the Illini have Big Ten opener versus Penn State on deck, and Kansas has a situational edge factor since they have an extra day of rest (played Friday) plus are home again this week! The Illini are on a short week and have the Nittany Lions on deck plus they are traveling for this one! The Jayhawks have only a non-conference game at Nevada on deck so this is easily the most important early season game for them while the same can not be said for Illinois. This line was around a 4 and I know it may seem hard to trust the Jayhawks as a favorite but the fact the line has moved down to a 3 has me liking this one even more. This line is as of early Thursday morning for the Friday evening affair. Lets jump on it! 10* KANSAS -3 |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Thursday NFL 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is excited about the Lions this season and I am not saying they will not be better but I do feel they still have a ways to go - at least on defense. That said, the Chiefs have long been known for being tougher on defense when they are at home. So now start to dig deeper in this match-up and you will really see some value in this one! The Chiefs were favored originally by a touchdown here and the line was holding near 7 until the Travis Kelce injury. That has resulted in this line dropping to the 4.5 range as of early gameday morning. Even if Kelce does not play here, I still look for the Chiefs to roll here but I actually feel he will play and he will be fine. Plus consider the normal 3 point assessment given to home teams in the NFL. That means this line of 4.5 is saying the Lions are very nearly as good as the Lions on a neutral field. Now ask yourself, if this was the Super Bowl and the Lions were meeting the Chiefs - this would be neutral field of course - would the line really be nearly a pick'em? Of course not! This line has been over-adjusted because of the early season hype on the Lions and the Kelce injury situation. Our job is to find value situations like this and take advantage and we'll do just that here! Yes the Lions finished last season hot with an 8-2 run but has anyone bothered to look at who they played? Remember teams play 17 games now and Detroit's 10-game run only featured two teams that ended up with more than 9 wins on the season. Against those two teams, the Lions beat the Vikings but lost to the Bills. Again, I will say Detroit is improved and they have a solid offense but I don't trust this defense and I don't think they march into Arrowhead on opening night and get a win. The Lions 4 road losses last season were by an average margin of defeat of 16 points! I love playing dogs and I love upsets but sometimes laying the points is absolutely the way to go and this is a fantastic value play here! 10* KANSAS CITY -4.5 |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks (+) points vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET in Charlotte, NC - This is a neutral site game and the current dominant line across all sports books as of gameday morning is 2.5 and I am grabbing the dog here. I like the fact the ranked team, North Carolina, is laying such a short number. I also like the way a few of the books I few as sharp are pricing this game. This has me lining up on what I feel is the sharp side which is also heavily based on what I like in terms of the match-up here too of course. The Gamecocks have really responded well under head coach Shane Beamer (yes he is the son of long-time former head coach Frank Beamer). South Carolina is building some continuity here in the program with Beamer and they finished last season very strong and I feel they will carry that momentum right into this season. Their passing attack is a strength now and QB Spencer Rattler is getting more and more comfortable here as he showed late last season. He will lead the way here against a Tar Heels defense that essentially lost their entire secondary from last season so you are talking about new starters here at key positions in the back of the defense. North Carolina had a lot of question marks in the off-season with a lot going on in the transfer portal including all the uncertainty involving the starting QB. Though he eventually decided to stay it says a lot about this program and that it is a bit shaky right now when I look at their coaching and personnel situations. I feel strongly that the Gamecocks are in better shape to hit the ground running early this season. North Carolina should improve as the season goes on but there is a reason this ranked team is hardly favored here in Week 1 and I love the points in this spot. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA |
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09-01-23 | Louisville -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 39-34 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET in Atlanta, Georgia - Technically the Yellow Jackets have the home field edge here but it is a neutral site game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This line was originally around 10 and I was hoping we would see it tick down to an even 7 but it has been stuck at 7.5 across the board at the time of this write-up. I feel that is actually a positive sign for us if you will. The fact is the sharp action would come flying in too hard on a 7 and the books are not willing to go there, at least not yet. I say sharp money because the fact is this Louisville team is too strong for Georgia Tech. Look at statistics from last season and it already shows that overall, the Cardinals were already the stronger team. Then when you look at what has transpired with each team in the off-season and the Cards appear much more poised than the Jackets to hit the ground running with strong play this season. Plummer will be the QB and he is off a strong season at Cal and before that was at Purdue where Cardinals head coach Brohm was as well so there is already familiarity for him here working in this offense. This is a great match and their ground game, with Jordan leading the way, will run all over a GT defense that struggles to stop the run. I know Louisville lost quite a bit from the defensive side of the ball but Georgia Tech has a new offensive coordinator and a new QB to run it with King (previously unimpressive at A & M) under center. The Yellow Jackets will have more growing pains than the Cardinals early this season. 10* LOUISVILLE - points |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (- points) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game from last season when Utah lost the game late. However, revenge is certainly not the only factor but it certainly does not hurt either! The real value here is because of Utah QB Cameron Rising being out for this game. The key is that the back-up has experience and will be just fine here plus we have seen a line drop from near double digits to now a 4.5 as of gameday morning. The Utes should roll to a big win here as they have much more in the way of returning experience here than the Gators. Also, last season's meeting was in Florida and now this one is in the thin air of Utah and the altitude edge can be a factor for a team like the Gators that hardly ever has to deal with it. For the Utes it certainly is nothing new. I look for the experience edge, home field factor, revenge factor, and line value to all play a role in this one being an ATS victory for us as a win by at least a TD margin is in the cards for the Utes the way I see it. Keep in mind, this line plummeted right past the key number of 7 so the value added is certainly noticeable! Though Cameron Rising is a strong QB the fact is Bryson Barnes has experience already and has a great team around him with which to work and then the other QB option (also could see some snaps) is a guy with dangerous legs! Nate Johnson is a guy loaded with speed and that makes him tough to defend when he is under center as well. 10* UTAH (- points) |
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08-26-23 | UMass v. New Mexico State -7 | Top | 41-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #302 Saturday CFB 10* New Mexico State Aggies -7 vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Of course the point spread is, and must, be a factor but lets first talk about some facts in terms of straight-up records. UMass has lost 24 straight road games! The Minutemen have covered just 6 times in their last 23 road games. UMass is again projected to be one of the worst teams in the nation. New Mexico State has won 6 of last 7 games including their bowl game last season. This team is really responding well under head coach Jerry Kill and I also like the fact they are at home for this one and want to avoid the slow start they had out of the gate last season. The Aggies are much better than the Minutemen and I also like the fact this line opened up around double digits but has come down to the TD mark. Laying 7 points here is something I am very comfortable with and hopefully the line will stay no higher than 7. Either way, lay it with this one and it would not surprise me if this game got steamed as the day goes along Saturday so note this line could rise back up. A lot of lines do that in football. They'll fall in the days coming into game day and then start moving back toward where they came from when the sharps start rolling in with bigger bets on gameday. The fact is the Aggies have won each of the last two meetings by double digits and I expect a similar result here. They are the more talented and more cohesive group and they have an altitude edge at home also plus this is a long road trip for a bad UMass team. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE -7 |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs Money Line -120 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 6:30 ET - Just do not want to get burned here if the Chiefs win by just 1 point because the dominant line right now on this game is 1.5 but the money line is available as low as -120 on KC as of very early game day morning. Finally the offensive line issue of Cincinnati will finally become too much in this one. The Chiefs are too smart and too well coached to not take advantage of this. I know that the Bengals beat them in the regular season in Cincy and that they beat them last year in the OT thriller in the playoffs but if I am a Chiefs player I would be saying "enough is enough" here. I mean this has been very surprising to me how for Cincinnati has come but I just can not see them making the Super Bowl again this season. It is so hard to do. So many things have to fall into place. Like I said, this is the game where the offensive line issues for the Bengals finally become too much. Mahomes is feeling better than he thought he would with the high ankle sprain. Kelce will be fine with his back spasms back under control. The end result is a well-coached KC team is going to the Super Bowl as Mahomes will outduel Joe Burrow here. Enough is enough! The Chiefs were aware they were even a DOG in this match-up for a period of time even though they are at home for this. These guys feel a bit a disrespected and this could be Chiefs dominance here in my opinion. 10* KANSAS CITY -120 |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs San Francicsco 49ers @ 3 ET - You might be fortunate enough to still find a -2 out there or perhaps even at heavy juice but, of course, would be preferable to lay 2 rather than 2.5 or 3 here. Another option here is the money line available as low as -145 instead of laying juice in the -125 range on the spread anyway! No matter which you choose, I do like the Eagles a lot in this spot and expect them to win by a double digit margin. Philadelphia sleep-walked a bit late in the season but then they showed what they can do when they are motivated as they destroyed the Giants last week. Yes the 49ers are better than the Giants but keep in mind that there is another edge here in that the Eagles entered the game against the Giants off a bye week. So Philly will be playing just the 2nd time in 3 weeks and it is amazing what time off can do for a team both mentally and physically at this late juncture in the season (including playoffs). Keep in mind the 49ers had a very tough game with Dallas last week but the Cowboys Dak Prescott gifted San Francisco the game on a silver platter by turning the ball over. It was pathetic to see that again but, oh well, this is the way of Dallas! Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are NOT the same as Prescott and the Cowboys that is for sure. Also, 49ers rookie QB Brock Purdy will be facing a tough test in a hostile environment here. Keep in mind, the Eagles will take advantage of a Niners team playing just its third true road game since late October. Since the end of October they had a neutral site game versus Arizona and two road games against Seahawks and Raiders. Those two teams finished the season a combined 15-20 including post-season and that pales in comparison to facing the Eagles in hostile Philly as they are now 15-3 including post-season this season. Because of all the hype about Purdy, this line has been kept lower than it should be. Here we take advantage! Purdy has never faced an NFL situation like this ever and the games at Seattle and Las Vegas will be nothing like how this one will be for the rookie quarterback. 10* PHILADELPHIA -2.5 |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys +4.5 v. 49ers | Top | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +4.5 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 6:30 ET - The Giants, including post-season, went 10-8-1 this season. What does that have to do with this bet? Quite a lot actually! I will explain. New York lost all 3 games to the Eagles and both games to the Cowboys this season. The NFC East was a very tough division this year. The Giants only lost 3 of their other 14 games against teams not named Dallas or Philadelphia. The 49ers, on the other hand, have padded their overall record thanks to playing in the NFC West. Including last week's win over the Seahawks in the Wild Card round, the Niners went 7-0 against divisional foes. That is how weak the division was this season while the NFC East is very likely to have a representative as 3 of the 4 NFC teams left entering this week were all from that division! This is no fluke. They were the strongest division in the league this season. Now Dallas is not getting enough respect here. Prescott is back and firing strong again, Purdy is still a rookie, and the Niners have faced a lot of weaker defenses since Purdy as been under center. This is going to be his first truly tough test. Prescott, on the other hand, has more of a "been there and done that" mentality. Especially after convincingly picking up a road playoff win (finally!), this Dallas team is rolling with confidence right now. I really like Purdy and wish him all the best in his NFL career but he is still a rookie and in last week's playoff game he faced a Seahawks defense that would finish the season, including that post-season game, allowing 30 ppg on the road for the season! Now in just his 2nd playoff start he faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed 19 ppg in 9 road games (including post-season). I am expecting a highly intriguing Eagles/Cowboys NFC Championship next week but, as added insurance here, I am going to go ahead and grab the points. I feel if Niners find a way to win this it will be by the slimmest of margins. 10* DALLAS COWBOYS +4.5 |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -5.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 3 ET - Bengals have injury issues on the offensive line. These are big issues. People take notice when key star players are out for teams but many do not pay such close attention to injuries in the trenches and yet those are very important. The issues become particularly troublesome for a team when it becomes a cluster of injuries all to the same unit. In this case, Cincinnati is without both starting tackles and a starting guard. That means 60% of their offensive line is out for this game! The Bengals will struggle to stop the Bills defense from pressuring them all game long in this one. As a result, Cincinnati just can not keep up here because you know the Bills are going to get their points here at home. Buffalo has averaged 32 points per game in home games this season! Cincinnati has allowed an average of 24 ppg last 6 road games. Only one of those 6 games was against a team that ended the season with a wining record. That was Pittsburgh (ended year 9-8) and the Steelers hung 30 on the Bengals. This one turns into a home rout because I know the Bills defense is fully capable of bouncing back big at home after last week's tight win versus Miami. Buffalo entered last week's action having allowed 17 points per game in games played here in Orchard Park this season. 10* BUFFALO -5.5 |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles -7 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -7 or -7.5 vs New York Giants @ 8:15 ET - You might be fortunate enough to still find a -7 out there or perhaps even at heavy juice but, of course, would be preferable to lay 7 rather than 7.5 or 8 here. Either way, I do like the Eagles a lot in this spot and expect them to win by a double digit margin. Philadelphia sleep-walked a bit late in the season but now they catch the Giants on a short week and traveling again. Plus the Eagles are off a bye week. I know Philly did not look good against New York two weeks ago. But it is amazing what time off can do for a team both mentally and physically at this late juncture in the season (including playoffs). Keep in mind the Giants had a very tough game with Minnesota last week and that was on Sunday. Now they have to play the Eagles on Saturday and they face them at Philly. The Eagles will take advantage of a Giants team playing a road game for the 4th time in 5 weeks. I know New York has amazing ATS numbers this season but that is also perhaps why they are a little over-valued here, at least in my opinion. New York has not won B2B games since mid-October! Prior to the upset win at Minnesota in the Wild Card round, the Giants had won only 3 of last 10 games! Also, their 6 losses in this stretch came by an average margin of nearly a dozen points per game! The Eagles led their regular season finale game 19-0 before Giants crawled back into it. Yes that game deserves an asterisk since NY played back-ups but what about the prior meeting? The Eagles won 48-22 and that game was at New York and Philly will have a much more robust game plan here than they did in the match-up two weeks ago. Hurts is now in better health and, of course, this game matters a whole lot more. Eagles pull away as this game goes on and they will not let the Giants back into this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA -7 or -7.5 |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 or -9 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:30 ET - Not going to write a ton here. The Jaguars rallied from a 27 point deficit against some of the worst coaching in NFL history by the Chargers last week. The week before that Jacksonville beat a Titans team that was down to #3 choice at QB but also were outgained by more than 100 yards in that one. To put it mildly, the Jags are very fortunate to be here. Now they take on a rested Chiefs team that is one of the best in the NFL plus is at home. Also, KC beat Jacksonville by 10 points when these teams met two weeks ago but it could have been much more. Imagine how much KC would have won the game by were it not for a 3-0 turnover deficit! The Jaguars luck runs out here and the Chiefs hammer them by a double digit margin. 10* KANSAS CITY -8.5 or -9 |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys -2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Much has been made of the Cowboys dismal effort at Washington last week and that it cost them a shot at the NFC East title and at home field edge had both the Niners and Eagles lost last week. However, both San Francisco and Philadelphia were huge favorites last week. Both SF and Philly were motivated to win and they did just that. The point is that the Cowboys went into last week's game sluggish because they knew the handwriting was on the wall. Dallas knew they were going to be on the road this week and they are both mentally as well as physically prepared for this game. The Cowboys actually should, and probably do, feel fortunate that they avoided two tougher teams in the Seahawks and Niners. The NFC West much tougher than the NFC South and Tampa Bay won their division despite having a losing record! I am not sold on the Bucs this season and I know they have beaten Dallas in the season opener each of the past two years. But this time it is different and we are getting value here with the Cowboys as a short road favorite. They are hands down the better team without a doubt. That said, we get line value because many know of a couple perfect angles here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am FADING these angles. The Cowboys have lost 8 straight playoff road games AND Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against Dallas. Both of those records will be history when this one goes into the books. Cowboys roll on the road. 10* DALLAS -2.5 |
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01-15-23 | Ravens +8.5 v. Bengals | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +8.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - The Ravens did not even care about winning last week's game and rested starters and yet still outgained the Bengals 386 to 257 in that 11 point loss! A key reason they lost was two interceptions but I do expect Huntley to be back at QB for this one after he was fully involved in practice Friday. Of course Jackson is still out but this time it should be Huntley at QB rather than Brown. Also, even with resting some other starters last week the Ravens still significantly outgained the Bengals. I feel strongly that this Ravens defense, which seemed to get stronger and stronger as the season went along, is going to make a key difference in this game. That is not to say that the Bengals defense is not also solid. However, the key is that the Bengals are GIVING 8.5 points here unlike the Ravens who are GETTING 8.5 points here. So don't lay it, take it...grab those points as these division rivals are going to be in a fierce battle in this game in my strong opinion and I honestly would not be shocked at an outright upset. 10* BALTIMORE +8.5 |
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01-15-23 | Giants +3 v. Vikings | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants +3 @ Minnesota Vikings @ 4:40 ET - Vikings are 13-4. Minnesota went 8-1 in home games. They are hosting a Wild Card team that finished 3rd in their 4-team division. Also, the Giants went just 4-4 on the road and only 4-7-1 in games against NFC teams. Yet the line here is a 3 even though Vikings are at home. What does that tell you? Exactly! Do not let this number fool you. It looks so easy to take Minnesota here but the Giants are going to be taking on the Eagles next week because New York is going to win this game as the Vikings luck finally runs out. I am going to take the 3 points here (just in case) but I do fully expect an outright upset here as the Vikings have been playing with fire all season long and this is the time it burns them. The Giants lost to the Vikings on a 61-yard field goal in the prior meeting this season but Vikes 33-yard drive that set up the long field goal was preceded by them getting outgained by 125 yards on the day and that game was here in Minnesota too. The Giants have the better defense and I love the ground game with Saquon Barkley too. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +3 |
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01-14-23 | Chargers -2 v. Jaguars | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers -2 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - The Jaguars were 3-14 last season. I know they have had a huge turnaround but this team was sitting at 4-8 this season before they won 5 straight to reach this game. So who did they face in the 5-game run? A Tennessee team that lost 7 straight to end the season and was a shell of itself when the Jaguars faced them. The Jags faced the Titans twice. They did get a tight OT win at Dallas but then the other 2 wins were over the Jets and Texans. The Jets finished the season falling apart and on a 6-game slide. The Texans were 3-13-1 this season. The point is that the Jaguars season-ending run is not as impressive when you take a closer look. I like the fact that the Chargers, prior to the meaningless loss at Denver in the regular season that did not matter to LA, had gone 5-2 SU last 7 road games. The Chargers know how to win on the road and you will see people lining up on the red hot Jaguars here but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of this one and grabbing LA. The Chargers take advantage of a Jags team that was outgained significantly in a must-win game last week versus Titans. Tennessee was a wounded team at the end of the season and still deserved to win last week's game were it not for key turnovers that proved to be the difference. Jacksonville is lucky just to be here and had to fight hard last week to get here. They are in trouble against an LA team that was resting guys last week. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -2 |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
CFB Monday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -12.5 vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 7:30 ET - My money is on Georgia here as their defense responds after rare sub-par performances recently. The Bulldogs, prior to SEC Championship, had played 12 games in the regular season. Georgia never allowed more than 22 points in a game and their average points allowed was half that at just 11 per game! The Horned Frogs have a solid pass defense but the Bulldogs strength is their ground game on offense and I expect them to run all over TCU in this one. That plus the championship experience edge the Dawgs have gives them a huge edge here. Remember what I said about the Bulldogs defense above? Well the TCU defense has allowed 24 points or more in 10 of their last 12 games. Essentially the opposite of the Georgia defensive performance! In those 10 games, the Horned Frogs allowed an average of 31.6 points per game. I would not be surprised if TCU hangs around early in this one but eventually the strength, power, experience edges for the Bulldogs allow them to pull away in this one. 10* GEORGIA -12.5 |
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01-08-23 | Lions v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers -4.5 vs Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Home field edge. Cold weather edge (Lions are a dome team). QB edge too with the experience of Rodgers over the young Goff who could struggle in hostile environment and cold conditions here. Another hidden factor here, and I like this play either way, is the strong possibility that the Lions will be eliminated from playoff race before this game even kicks off. Even if that indeed happens because Seahawks beat the Rams, one could correctly argue that the Lions will still be motivated to prevent a division rival from making the playoffs. However, no one can argue it will not be the same positive attitude for this game if Seattle wins in the action that will wrap up before this game even kicks off. That said, I like the Packers here and I like them no matter what happens in the earlier action. Keep in mind, the Pack have revenge here too because they lost at Detroit earlier this season despite having a huge yardage edge as Rodgers had a rare bad game against the Lions. Yes Detroit is off a great defensive effort last week but it was against a bad Bears offense. The week prior the Lions allowed nearly 600 yards of offense to the Panthers! The Lions have been hot but the Packers have too with 4 straight wins and GB has the better defense too. This one should get ugly in favor of the revenging home team with everything to play for in this one! 10* GREEN BAY -4.5 |
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01-08-23 | Cardinals +14.5 v. 49ers | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +14.5 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - The good news for San Francisco is if they win this game they still have a shot at the #1 seed in the post-season. The bad news? They also need Eagles to lose for that to happen. Philadelphia is creeping up toward being a 17 point favorite over the Giants. The Giants are resting a lot of starters including QB Daniel Jones and their starting QB will be Davis Webb. In other words, the Niners are not stupid and they realize the Eagles are highly unlikely to lose today as they also welcome back Jalen Hurts from injury and, again, New York is essentially tanking for that game as they are locked into playoff position. All that said, the 49ers know they are therefore essentially locked into playoff position too. Sure they will come out to win this game but this is in their psyche and certainly there is no extra motivation to win this game by any kind of massive margin. That said, now that this line has crept all the way up to 14.5 it is absolutely "go time" with the big underdog Cardinals here. David Blough played quite well at QB for the Cards last week. Also, sounds like this will be last game of career for future HOFer JJ Watt so you know the Arizona defense wants to go out strong here too. Just don't see the Niners winning this game by much of a margin. Note that SF has won 9 straight but of the last 8 wins, 4 of them were by 8 or less points. The Cardinals, since getting blown out in Week 1 of the season by KC, has only 1 loss last 16 games by more than 14 points and that was against the 49ers in Mexico City! Payback time here. Grab the generous points in this one! 10* ARIZONA +14.5 |
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01-07-23 | Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +6.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - The Titans have lost 6 straight games and the Jaguars have won 4 straight games. No need to even play this game, right? It's over before it even starts? The division title belongs to the Jags by default? Fortunately for the Titans none of that holds true. Tennessee gets their shot here and I love fading the masses which will give the underdogs no chance here. Keep in mind, this is the Jaguars we are talking about ladies and gentlemen. I know they are better than they use to be but they are no juggernauts and Joshua Dobbs actually played quite well at QB for the Titans last week. He certainly is a major upgrade over the struggling Malik Willis as Tennessee continues to battle without the injured Ryan Tannehill. The key here is that Dobbs can manage the game, Derek Henry can have a huge ground game for the Titans, and I like the Tennessee defense (3 turnovers last week) over the Jags defense. Keep in mind, the Titans only two bad defensive performances on the road this season were against two of the best teams (Bills and Eagles) in the entire league. In their other 6 road games, Jacksonville has allowed just 15.8 ppg in regulation time of those 6 games. Jaguars had rare big win over the Titans when these teams met last month. Note that the Jaguars have won their last two games over a 2-13-1 Texans team and a Jets team that had quit on the season. Certainly there is not quit in the Titans in a "win and you're in" game here. Prior to those two wins the Jags allowed 30 ppg their last 5 games. To put that in proper perspective, prior to allowing 27 points to Dallas last week, the Titans had allowed more than 22 points only TWO times in last 13 games! Give me the big points with a very hungry road dog! 10* TENNESSEE +6.5 |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State +1.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Monday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions +1.5 vs Utah Utes @ 5 ET - The Big Ten was particularly tough this season and sent 9 teams to bowl games. Entering Monday's action, 6 had already played and they went 4-2 SU with the one of those two losses being Ohio State losing to the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs by 1 point. by the way, the other Big Team that played in a CFP Semi-Final game was Michigan and they fell just short against TCU. The reason I emphasize this is because the Buckeyes and Wolverines were the only two teams to beat Penn State this season. Keep in mind those two schools had a chance to advance to the National Championship and each fell only just short against the best quality in all of CFB. The Pac-12, on the other hand, had more teams ranked but their quality was not as high as the teams like Michigan and Ohio State. Utah lost to Florida this season and the Gators did not even end up with a winning record. The Utes also lost to UCLA and Oregon. Note that UCLA just got upset by Pittsburgh in the bowls and Oregon barely snuck by a North Carolina team that has a bad defense. The Utes are a high quality program for sure but the point is that the two losses PSU had to Michigan and Ohio State should serve them well here and those were two of the top four programs in the nation this season. Utah has been hit harder by opt-outs than the Lions heading into this one and also the edge in special teams play goes to the Nittany Lions. 10* PENN STATE +1.5Â |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers -3 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - First off some line analysis will tell you why, from a contrarian standpoint, I absolutely love this play. The Packers are a 3-point home favorite here and, as we know, the average home team allotment for home field edge is 3 points. So this line is telling us these teams are equal. Yet when you look at the records, the Vikings are 12-3 and the Packers are 7-8 which is hardly equal of course! That said, many will be lining up on Minnesota to take advantage of this "mistake" here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Packers! The Vikings are a quality team for sure but they have been so fortunate in tight games this season too plus Green Bay has revenge here from losing at Minnesota earlier this season. Also, the Packers have covered 14 of 22 in divisional games and are on a solid 9-4 ATS run as a home favorite. The Vikings are on a 1-7 ATS run in divisional games in which they are a road dog. Look for the Pack to get their revenge and Minnesota's incredible string of luck finally runs out as they get hammered on the road here. 10* GREEN BAY -3 |
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01-01-23 | Saints v. Eagles -5.5 | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 vs New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Eagles are still without QB Jalen Hurts but he has resumed practicing. That means he is closer to a return but the Eagles want to wait as long as they can to bring him back. After falling apart late in the loss at Dallas on Christmas Eve coupled with Minnesota continuing to win, this is a very important game for Philly. they do not want to go into the final game still needing a win to lock up the #1 seed. The Eagles would rather be resting guys. That being said, I do not see them being denied here at home in this one. Gander Minshew did throw for a lot of yardage last week and will cut down on the turnovers here. The Eagles will run all over the Saints here at home. Philly has covered 10 of last 11 as a home favorite. Keep in mind, New Orleans is on a 2-5 ATS run in games played away from home and also they did get roughed up here at Philly last season. More of the same in store here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -5.5 |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State v. Georgia -5.5 | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -5.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 8 ET - The Buckeyes have had a great season but they were losing to Penn State with 9 minutes to go, then got outgained by Northwestern even though they won the game by 14 points, and were only ahead of Maryland by 3 points until a late explosion in the final MINUTE of the game. They then got hammered by Michigan in their final regular season game. So the point is that 4 of the last 5 games involving Ohio State were not so impressive. The Buckeyes were not the same dominating force we saw in the first 7 games of the season. Now they face the defending champions and the Bulldogs are going to pull away as this game goes on. Georgia allowing only 12.8 ppg this season and their strong ground game on offense as well as their fantastic rush defense on the other side of the ball will prove to be the difference in the trenches as this game goes along. The Bulldogs won and covered both games in last year's post-season and both wins were by double digits. The Buckeyes are just 3-3 SU/ATS last 6 games in the CFB playoff match-ups. Ohio State is a high-quality team ot say the least but I just do not see the Dawgs being denied here and like them to win this game by at least a touchdown. 10* GEORGIA -5.5 |
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12-31-22 | TCU +8.5 v. Michigan | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Bowl Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs +8.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 4 ET - The Wolverines are undefeated but I just can not ignore the lousy track record of coach Harbaugh in big games including bowl games. Also, about Michigan, they were up by only 5 points with less than 7 minutes to go against a mediocre Maryland team in a game that they eventually won by 7 points and that game was at Ann Arbor. Though they did eventually pull away against Penn State and there is no arguing they deserved the big win, the Nittany Lions did have a 3rd quarter lead in that one in 3rd quarter. Also, they had to rally in the 4th quarter of the win over Illinois and again this was a home game for them. Of course at 13-0 and with plenty of dominating wins, the Wolverines are a very strong team. But I like getting more than a TD with a Horned Frogs team that has had a huge season and has prevailed against all odds all season long. I don't see why that would change here. Yes they lost the Big 12 Championship - though in OT - but still had a huge season and that loss was by just 3 points. With a dynamic offense, look for the Horned Frogs to hang around all game long in this one too. I just don't see Michigan winning this one by more than 1 score. Also, an outright upset certainly would not shock me. All the pressure to win here is on Michigan and that is dangerous. The Horned Frogs could prove to be the much more relaxed team and that will pay dividends. 8* TCU +8.5 |
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12-30-22 | South Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks +4 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - I really like the way Spencer Rattler played late in the season and, overall, the way the Gamecocks played in earning a couple of upset wins late in the year as well. This South Carolina team has a ton of momentum plus they have their starting quarterback here. Conversely, the Fighting Irish closed the season with a disappointing loss plus they lost QB Drew Pyne so they will be using little-used Buchner in this match-up as he has been out much of the season. The Gamecocks enter this one on a 7-2 SU / ATS run. The Fighting Irish enter this game on a 5-2 SU run but 1 of those wins by just 3 points so only 4 of last 7 games were wins by more than the margin on this game and, again, this is a tough spot facing an SEC team that has the QB edge in a big way. I like the momentum of Rattler and the Gamecocks and the fact we are getting more than a field goal here. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA +4 |
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12-29-22 | Cowboys v. Titans +13 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +12.5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Cowboys rallied for the win last week versus Eagles but the key in the game was 4 Philly turnovers and they were a bit banged up including missing starting QB Hurts yet Philadelphia still should have won the game. As for the Titans, they are also without their starting QB but I expect the back-up Willis to be better here after playing all of last week's game. That playing time and experience will serve him well here. Tennessee did have about the same yardage as Houston in the loss last week but they were done in by turnovers. So the set up here, in terms of value, is very nice as the Titans off a turnover-fueled loss and the Cowboys off a turnover-fueled win. Also, that was such a big win for Dallas last week over a division rival that is having an NFL-best season this year. That said, this is a flat spot for Dallas and the Cowboys have certainly been known for playing down to the level of competition. Prior to the fortunate win and cover over Philly, the Cowboys were mired in a 2-4 ATS stretch and 3 of the 4 ATS losses were to teams with a losing record. The current combined record of those teams is 16-28-1. Now Dallas takes on a 7-8 Tennessee team that has lost 5 straight so I can see the Cowboys again underestimating a team and playing flat here. Note that Titans are on a 5-1 ATS run as a home dog and 5 of their 8 losses by 5 or less points this season. 10* TENNESSEE +12.5 |
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12-29-22 | Minnesota -10.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Bowl Thursday 10* Minnesota Golden Gophers -10.5 vs Syracuse in Pinstripe Bowl in Bronx, NY @ 2 ET - The Orange rallied late for a win over BC in their season finale but this followed 5 straight losses. Boston College had a bad season too so this is not much to be proud of. The fact is Syracuse faded badly in the 2nd half of the season and they will be no match here for this tough Minnesota team. The Golden Gophers are too strong with their running game and will push the Orange defense all over the field throughout this game. Syracuse does not have the weapons on offense to keep up here. Note that Minnesota allowed 16 points or less in all 5 of its final games and won 4 of those 5 games. Conversely, the Orange defense allowed 34 points per game in its 5 game losing streak plus did allow 23 to a bad Eagles team in its season finale. This one gets ugly. Lay it! 10* MINNESOTA -10.5 |
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12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts +4 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +4 vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - The Colts are turning to Nick Foles at QB. He is a veteran QB with a Super Bowl ring and Indy head coach Jeff Saturday is turning to him because he wants to do the best he can to give this Colts team the best chance to win the final 3 games of the season. That is the message he has conveyed to his team and the defense does not need any extra motivation either after the Colts blew a 33-0 lead last week in an embarrassing loss. This is the type of game where professional pride kicks in on the defensive side of the ball. As for the offense they get a "kick in the pants" with the move to Foles at QB. So there will be some extra sparks on both sides of the ball here and I like having the home dog at +4 in this one. In the Chargers last 10 games they have only ONE WIN by more than 3 points! I am going to challenge this bad LA defense to get the job done here and think it will be hard for the Chargers to pull away in this one. Possible upset and, if not, yet another tight LA win by 3 or less points. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +4 |
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12-25-22 | Bucs v. Cardinals +7.5 | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +7.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - Getting 7.5 points here is just too much. Yes, the Cardinals will have McSorley at QB but he played his college football at Penn State and will not be fazed by any type of 'big game atmosphere' or because of facing the Bucs in this rare start for him with his teammates Murray and McCoy both out. Yes the Cardinals have had a disappointing campaign but this is their home finale and a chance to diminish the fading, but still active, playoff hopes of the Buccaneers in this one. That said, look for a strong home finale effort from Arizona here. Note that the Cardinals, when a home dog and facing a team outside of their division, have covered 15 of last 22 games. As for Tampa Bay, they have just one ATS cover in their last dozen games! I am not saying the Cards will win this game, though that would not shock me, but the fact it that TB has ZERO wins by more than 6 points in their last dozen games. Look for McSorley and the Cardinals to surprise here. 10* ARIZONA +7.5 |
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12-24-22 | Raiders +2 v. Steelers | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
NFL Saturday 8* Las Vegas Raiders +2 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Raiders are 2-6 SU on the road this season yet this line is about a pick'em even though Steelers have won 4 of 6 games. Why is this line like this? Exactly! Look for Vegas to pull the upset just like they did in their last visit to Heinz Field. Raiders have won 4 of 5 games and the lone loss was by just 1 point. Las Vegas has kept their hopes alive for a playoff spot and confidence growing with each win. The 4 teams the Steelers have beat in their 4-2 run have a combined record of 19-36-1. None of those teams have a current record better than 5-9. Conversely, the recent teams the Raiders have beaten for their last 3 victories all have at least a .500 record on the season. This is honestly a bit of an ugly primetime match-up and the weather will be cold and windy. Many feel that will favor the Steelers but, again, this game was priced at nearly a pick'em by the odds makers for a reason. LV 2-6 SU on the road this season but I will take them. 8* LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +2Â |
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12-24-22 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Bowl Saturday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +7 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 8 ET - Just going to challenge the Aztecs to score enough to cover the full TD here. I just don't see that happening. San Diego State has not run the ball as well as they have in recent seasons. They made a switch at QB during the season that helped the team some but also I have to question their motivation here. Last season the Aztecs had a strong year and finished with a dozen wins on the year including their bowl victory over UTSA. This season they are just 7-5 on the year and they face a Middle Tennessee team that could be the hungrier team with this rare trip to Hawaii for them. MTSU wants to make the most of this rare opportunity and, though they have the weaker defense in this match-up, they do have the stronger offense. 3 of the 7 Aztecs wins this season were by 4 or less points. If you look at this match-up "on paper" as they saying goes you may think that San Diego State should dominate and, indeed, the line movement has followed that assumption. I like to fade line moves when the situation is right and this is one of those. Look for the more motivated team - the underdog in this case - to stay inside a 1-score margin in this one and possibly even pull of the upset. 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +7 |
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12-24-22 | Eagles +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles lost here by 20 last year. Also, when they met in Philly in a meaningless late season game last year, the Eagles lost by 25 and Minshew was also at QB for that one. Minshew starting here because Hurts is out with an injury. The Eagles did beat the Cowboys 26-17 earlier this season. So who gets revenge here? Minshew in another shot against the Cowboys (met them late last season) and the Eagles getting revenge at Dallas for laying an egg here earlier in last year's season? Or are the Cowboys getting revenge for the loss at Philly earlier this season? My money is on the Eagles. Minshew actually played quite well in his couple starts last season. Philadelphia will have the edge in the trenches here and they continue to pile up impressive sack totals on defense and their offense has continued to be able to produce impressive running totals too. Now, because of Hurts out and Minshew in, a team with only 1 loss on the season is getting 4.5 points and there is just too much line value to pass up on here. The Eagles need this game. It locks up up everything for them as a win gives them the NFC East title plus the #1 seed for the entire post-season. You know they will go hard here. The Eagles are going all out for this game. Right now the Cowboys are questioning a lot of things. They gave up over 500 yards at Jacksonville last week and the confidence of Dallas is not nearly on the level of that of the Eagles! Philly gets revenge for what happened in their last visit to Dallas. 10* PHILADELPHIA +4.5 |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest v. Missouri +2.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Bowl Friday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers +2.5 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 6:30 ET - The Tigers are facing a Demon Deacons team that had a lead in all 12 of their games this season yet lost 5 of the 12. They also wrapped up the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. The point is that no lead is safe with Wake Forest and the Tigers are the much better team on defense. The Demon Deacons have allowed at least 30 points in 5 straight games. Missouri allowed 27 points or less in ALL but TWO of their DOZEN games this season. The Tigers started the season only 2-4 but they have 3 close losses to solid SEC foes like Auburn, Georgia, and Florida. Now Missouri very focused on getting a bowl win after falling just short last year versus Army. The Tigers won their final two games this season to get to 6-6 and become bowl eligible. Now Missouri wants to get that 7th win to get to their first winning season in 4 years. Like the motivation factor here while Wake Forest had an 11-3 season last year and went 7-1 in the ACC and played in a New Year's Eve bowl. Will they be motivated enough here? That is a legitimate question for sure and I feel the hungrier team with the far superior defense gets the win here. 10* MISSOURI +2.5 |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -2 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Jets -2 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - Jets are off loss to Lions at home but are 5-0 / 100% ATS this season when off an ATS loss. Love the fact the weather will be ugly which lessens the Jaguars QB edge. Also, like the fact that Jacksonville off the huge upset win of the Cowboys in OT. Everything is aligned perfectly for New York to move to 6-0 ATS on the season when off an ATS loss. I know the Jets have lost 3 straight games SU overall but this is the perfect spot for them to bounce back and end that streak. They are favored here for a reason. 10* NEW YORK JETS -2 |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Air Force Falcons +3.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 7:30 ET - Brutal weather in Fort Worth, TX expected for this one. Temperatures in the teens with wind chills possibly in the teens below zero. I would be the first one to tell you that Air Force is a bit over-rated based on their strength of schedule but there are some key factors here supporting the underdog Falcons. First off the weather is going to help the run-based Falcons offense. Also, Air Force is more used to playing in bad weather games because they play in the mountain west conference. Also, how motivated will Baylor be for this game? Yes it is just up the road from Waco in Fort Worth but the Bears can't be too thrilled about playing in this game after winning the Big 12 title last season. Baylor only ended up 6-6 this season and they recently fired defensive coordinator. This is the Armed Forces Bowl and so you know that the Falcons will come to this game motivated and ready as service academy schools are certainly known for being fully prepared for the biggest of games. Discipline and structure on one side in this one and even if they are the weaker side the fact that motivation and weather go in their favor here plus the fact we are getting 3.5 points to work with as well means that the underdog is the play here. 10* AIR FORCE +3.5 |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama v. Western Kentucky +4 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +4 vs South Alabama Jaguars @ 9 ET - With QB Austin Reed deciding NOT to enter the transfer portal and the fact he WILL play in this game means the Hilltoppers offense is going to be operating at full efficiency for this one. Western Kentucky's passing offense will key this one. South Alabama has lost and failed to cover each of their last two bowl appearances. Now here the Jaguars are favored because of their 10-2 record but the 8-5 Hilltoppers are the play! Don't let the records fool you. The Jags just don't have a potent enough offense to keep up with the underdog in this one. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY +4 |
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12-20-22 | Toledo -3.5 v. Liberty | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets -3.5 vs Liberty Flames @ 7:30 ET - The Rockets catch a Flames team that struggled late in the season plus has an interim head coach. I also am a contrarian and love the fact that Rockets are 0-4 SU/ATS last 4 bowls and Liberty is 3-0 SU/ATS last 3 bowls. Toledo has been upset in recent bowls and should bounce back here with a strong effort. The Rockets are desperate to end the bowl streak of losses. They have the firepower to get the job done here. Liberty closed the season with 3 straight losses including a UConn team that got hammered by Marshall already in this bowl season. The Flames also lost to Virginia Tech who went 3-8 this season and also lost to a New Mexico State team by 35 and the Aggies barely limped into bowl season. Rockets have momentum after beating Ohio University in the MAC Championship Game too! When I match these teams up I just can not see any areas of the game where I give Liberty the edge. That said, laying the short number is very fair here. 10* TOLEDO -3.5 |
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12-18-22 | Giants +4.5 v. Commanders | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants +4.5 @ Washington Commanders @ 8:20 ET - Value with the points here. I know Washington is off a bye week but they have covered ATS just 3 of last 14 when off a bye. I know the Giants just got clobbered last week but it was against the NFL best Eagles. That said, we are getting some line value here because the line move to 4.5 means the key numbers of 3 and 4 are now "win numbers" on this one with the underdog. The Giants are just not getting enough respect here. I know they have not won a game in a month but they will still be scrappy underdog here against an over-rated Commanders team. Washington has the same record as New York but has been playing better of late but the result is that they are over-valued here. The Giants were 9-3 ATS this season prior to getting hammered by Philadelphia last week. The Commanders, other than a shocking win over Philly, have seen all their wins come against teams with a losing record this season. The combined record of the other 6 team they beat is 23-54-2. So you can see why I have no hesitation in taking a 7-5-1 Giants team that just tied Washington two weeks ago in game that could not even be settled in OT. Outright upset would not surprise me at all here so I am happy to have the points in a game that certainly could be decided by 4 or less points. Look for the Giants ground game on offense to be the difference maker in this one. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +4.5 |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins +7 or +7.5 @ Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - Weather is the great equalizer in a game like this. Likely going to be a snowstorm in Buffalo during this game. The snow especially heavy during the game. So when you have a game where the teams can't fully operate their offenses as they want to would you rather be laying a full TD or getting a full TD? The fact is that anything can happen in wild weather games like this so I generally stay away when the games have a small spread. But when you have a spread of at least a TD in a game like this I love having the big dog. It is generally just hard for either team to create a lot of separation on the scoreboard when the weather is going to be nasty. Both teams have a pretty solid rush defense and I like the fact that the Bills are off a divisional revenge win over the New York Jets last week. The Dolphins are off B2B losses, including a 6 point loss last week at LA versus the Chargers. Buffalo is 8-3 last 11 games but other than a win by 14 points at New England and a 35-point win versus Pittsburgh, the other 9 games were decided by an average margin of just 5 points! In other words, week in and week out, the Bills are almost always involved in close games and with this game likely played in a snowstorm in Orchard Park, I just don't see the Bills being able to maximize the edge of having Josh Allen at QB. 10* MIAMI +7 or +7.5 |
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12-17-22 | Florida +8.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators +8.5 vs Oregon State Beavers @ 2:15 ET - Typical contrarian play for me. Yes I know the Gators have some opt-outs but this line has jumped too high and Florida is not getting near enough respect here. I feel strongly that, given all the extra prep time plus the fact QB Jack Miller was highly recruited and came over from Ohio State will lead to a stronger performance here than most are expecting. Florida is well-coached and will be fully prepared here and this is a solid SEC team taking on an Oregon State team that had gone 9-22 from 2018 to 2020. The Beavers did go 7-6 last season but now after the 9-3 this season are a little over-rated here. I am not saying Oregon State will not win this bowl game but an upset would not surprise me. At the very least, the Gators will stay within a single score margin here. 10* FLORIDA +8.5 |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +3.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - 49ers off win and Seahawks off loss. Seattle lost at San Francisco way back in Week 2 this season. Revenge? Check! Situational edge with Seahawks off home loss and Niners on the road now but coming off home win last week? Check! Seattle has been on a strong run as a home dog and I like them in this primetime affair at home and catching 3.5 points. Of course SF has the better defense and yes Purdy played well last week at QB but he is bothered right now by a rib/oblique injury. If it becomes worse or is too bothersome for him, Josh Johnson would likely get the call here. Purdy has 0 pass attempts on the road this season and a road game at Seattle is not easy. As for Johnson, he has been a journeyman NFL quarterback for a reason and has more INTs than TDs in his career. 10* SEATTLE +3.5 |
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12-12-22 | Patriots v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +2 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Just like the Chargers last night, I like a little ugly home dog action here. Arizona is an ugly 4-8 this season but they are coming off their bye week. Trend players will be happy to know the Cardinals are 12-5 ATS last 17 times they have been a home dog. Also, in non-conference battles, they are have covered 6 of last 8 games. They catch a Patriots team still liking its wounds from Thursday's loss to the Bills in last week's action. That was a key game for New England and dropped them to the bottom of the division with the loss sending them to a 6-6 record on the year. The Patriots could struggle to bounce back after that defeat. Keep in mind, the Pats had only 242 yards of offense in that one. I feel they will struggle to keep up here as the Cardinals offense can be very dangerous and now has more weapons back compared to earlier in the season when Hopkins missed practically the first half of the season. Also, Murray and others have had a chance to heal up thanks to the bye week. Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins both are back and on the field the same time with Kyler Murray now. Yes the Cards lost their first game this season in which they were all together two weeks ago but they will be even better now coming off the bye week. 10* ARIZONA +2 |
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12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers +3.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The Dolphins are getting healthier as Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to play in this game at QB plus weapons like Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are both expected to play as well. The key? None of the 3 are 100% here. The biggest key? Tagovailoa threw 2 picks last week and he is the one to worry about as the QB is going to try and outduel the Chargers and QB Justin Herbert here and I just do not see that happening! Herbert and the Chargers are undervalued here as a home dog catching 3.5 points now and I just do not trust Miami in this spot. The Dolphins are 3-3 SU on the road this season but none of the 3 SU wins was by more than 3 points and the 3 SU losses were all by double digit margins. The average margin of the 3 defeats was 17 points and there is nothing "average" about that. With this being said, we have great home dog value here as the Chargers are angry off a 27-20 loss to the Raiders and, prior to that, 5 of last 7 LA games were decided by 3 or less points! The Chargers have one of the top passing attacks in the league and I feel Tagovailoa's ankle is still an issue for the Dolphins QB and it will reflect again in his performance here. Keep in mind all 5 of his picks have come on the road this season. The Chargers defense is their area of concern but watch them step up at home in this key Sunday night battle and note that LA had allowed 24 points or less in 4 of last 6 games prior to giving up 27 last week. That is significant here because Dolphins allowing an average of 33 points per game in road games this season. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +3.5 |
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12-11-22 | Eagles -7 v. Giants | 48-22 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles are still trying to hold off the Cowboys for the top spot in the division and the Vikings for the top spot in the NFC. They can not afford any letdowns and have continued, more often than not, to play like a well-oiled machine. They certainly will not overlook the division rival Giants. This is the first meeting between these long-time rivals this season and the key is the Eagles much better passing offense and much stronger pass defense. In comparison with the Giants, they are much stronger in both these areas. Also, the Eagles run defense has gotten healthier and added some reinforcements and the Giants could struggle to score here while the Philly offense continues to be one of the best around. As a result, Philly should roll to a big margin of victory here and I have no hesitation in laying the TD in this one. New York had some miracle wins and covers earlier this season and now their true colors are showing as they were beaten worse than the final score shows against the Cowboys and then that was followed by a disappointing tie at home versus the Commanders. Eagles will prove to be too much here! 8* PHILADELPHIA -7 |
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12-08-22 | Raiders v. Rams +6.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +6.5 vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - The Rams only have one home game remaining after this match-up and it is hosting a Broncos team that, just like LA, currently sits with a 3-9 record and is going nowhere this season. That means this Thursday match-up in primetime is the Rams last significant home game of the season. Los Angeles can play spoiler and diminish the Raiders already-slim playoff hopes. That said, I absolutely expect the Rams to come to play in this one and the Raiders will struggle to win this game, let alone cover the big spread. Long-term trend followers will be happy to know that the Raiders have covered only 10 of last 32 in non-conference battles. Las Vegas is off a big win over rival Chargers last week and they have New England on deck. Yes the Patriots team that McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for under coach Belichick for about a decade! In other words, this spot is absolutely a sandwich spot for the Raiders as they now take on a team that has lost 6 straight games. They are traveling this week on short rest and off a divisional win and are in a lookahead spot with McDaniels former team waiting on deck. I am not saying the Rams win this outright but it certainly would not shock me. Look for this game to be decided by 3 or 4 points. LA continues to lose games but has been competitive and, after struggling in other primetime appearances and with their next one coming up next Monday on the road and being that will be their last one of the season, look for Rams to make most of this primetime game at home! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs -3 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - The Saints are just 1-4 on the road this season. They have 8 losses on the season overall and all have been by at least 3 points. This line dropping to a solid 3 has given us great line value here given the above. Note that Tampa Bay is off an OT loss but this was preceded by B2B wins. Also, the Bucs 5 wins this season have all been by at least 3 points. Tampa has allowed 17 points or less in regulation time of each of their last 3 games. The Saints had allowed 20 points or more in 10 of 11 games this season before last week's ugly 13-0 loss. In fact the average points allowed in those 10 games was 26.7 and then look at what TB has done recently on defense and you can see why I like the Bucs at home here. 3 of the past 4 games the Saints top rusher has had 30 rushing yards or less and last week it was QB Andy Dalton with 21 yards! That is not good news as that means New Orleans likely to struggle to run the ball here and the Bucs have a very strong pass defense. Also, the Bucs have seen White run for 105 yards and 64 yards the past two weeks. Take advantage of the line move. 10* TAMPA BAY -3 |
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12-04-22 | Colts +10.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 19-54 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +10.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Colts have a bye week on deck and are off a loss. Cowboys off a big divisional win over Giants. Big difference in the situational dynamics here. Also, Indianapolis has covered 7 of last 10 as a road dog and have gone 8-1 ATS the last 9 times when they have a bye week on deck. The Cowboys are the better team for sure but this is a lot of points. I don't necessarily agree with the Indy coaching change but the Colts did win their first game against the Raiders and then gave the Eagles all they could handle before ending up with a poor effort against the Steelers. I look for Indianapolis to bounce right back here after the loss to Pittsburgh. Even though Colts are just 4-6 last 10 games only one of those losses was by a double digit margin. Also, Dallas has some big wins this season but, out of 11 games, only 5 have resulted in a Cowboys win by more than 8 points. If you look statistically at the Colts, there are very sound on defense. Dallas could struggle here on offense and you know Indy will be bringing a strong effort as they are off B2B losses plus have the bye week on deck. Cowboys have allowed 20 or more points in 4 of last 6 games. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +10.5 |
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12-04-22 | Titans v. Eagles -4 | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -4 vs Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - A key part of the Titans offense is RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles run defense has struggled this season and, recently in particular, but they get key help this week! Jordan Davis was activated from injured reserve Saturday and is ready to go here. He is a key run-stuffing defensive tackle. The Titans are certainly a solid team but the Eagles are not 10-1 by accident. This is a damn good team and laying a very short number on their home field and every win is still key. Philly can not afford to overlook anyone as there is a tight divisional race still going plus the battle for the top spot in the NFC. Note that the Eagles have covered 9 of their last 10 as a home favorite. This line implies a line of practically a pick'em on a neutral field. But I just do not see it that way. The Eagles rate much better statistically on both sides of the ball in comparison with the Titans. 8* PHILADELPHIA -4 |
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12-03-22 | Central Florida v. Tulane -3.5 | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave -3.5 vs Central Florida Knights @ 4 ET - UCF has had the number of the Green Wave for years now including the meeting earlier this season. That said, why is Tulane favored by more than a field goal here? Exactly! Lay it! This game is priced this way for a reason! The Green Wave have the better defense in this match-up. Their star RB is now healthier. Conversely, the UCF QB Plumlee is set to play in this one but he is not 100%. He is dealing with a hamstring issue. Look for a big ground game from the Green Wave here and look for the Knights offense to continue to stammer and stutter a bit as they have been in recent games. Just do not think Plumlee will be himself here. The Knights defense has had some lapses recently and remember they recently lost to Navy and plus had to rally late, after blowing a huge lead, in their win over a bad South Florida team. So this UCF team is not peaking at the right time and, for the Green Wave, their only AAC loss was to Central Florida and now they can get revenge here. 10* TULANE -3.5 |
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12-01-22 | Bills -3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The Bills are 0-2 SU in divisional games this season and, as you would expect, those SU losses were also ATS losses. However, they entered this season on a 7-1 ATS run in divisional games. Buffalo knows they need to start taking care of business in action against divisional foes as the AFC East race is jam-packed right now. The final 3 home games the Bills have left are divisional games and this is their final divisional road game this season. After getting a tight win last week at Detroit, look for a much stronger effort here on the road for the Bills. Note that Buffalo is the must stronger offense in comparison with New England. Also, the Patriots are averaging just 13 points in divisional games this season and have been held to 14 points or less in 2 of last 3 home games. The Bills, on the other hand, have averaged 28 ppg this season and they also are much better in pass protection than the Patriots. At home and off a loss, New England is sure to give a valiant effort here but the Bills will pull away as this one goes along and they will cover the short number. 10* BUFFALO -3.5 |
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11-27-22 | Packers v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 33-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles have not looked as strong the last couple weeks for sure and their run defense has been an issue though there is a chance of some improvement with recent signings there as they also wait to get healthier again on the D-line. However, even with that, think about how Green Bay has played for much of this season. The point is that we get line value here because the betting markets tend to have a short-term memory. They are looking at this as the Eagles that lost outright to the Commanders for first loss of year and then barely (and fortunately) snuck by the Colts late in last week's game. That is why you are getting such a low line here. Think about this line for a second though. This number is basically saying that the Eagles, on a neutral field, would only be favored by about a field goal in this one. This is just not the case and I think we have great value here. The Eagles are so strong at home (generally speaking) and had covered 8 in a row as a home favorite before losing outright to Washington two weeks ago. That is what is on everyone's mind is how bad the Eagles were at home on MNF two weeks ago but you don't think the Philly players also want to make up for that here? The point is that they can (and should) do just that against a Packers team that, other than a miracle comeback OT win versus Dallas (but at home) 2 weeks ago, has really struggled. Green Bay has lost 5 of 6 games played outside of Wisconsin this season and their average margin of defeat in those is 8 points. This is not an average team they are facing here. This is the team with the best record in the NFL that also wants to make up for their poor performance on MNF at home two weeks ago. Yes the Eagles D has some issues but this offense is capable of fully clicking, especially at home, with the way Hurts has played at times this season. Before the tight win at Indy, 6 of last 7 Philly wins had been by 8 or more points. This one will too! Eagles run defense has been the story lately but they have added some pieces and it is the struggling Packers run defense that will be exposed in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6.5 |
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