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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-08-16 | Purdue +10.5 v. Illinois | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
Ugly Dog - Rickenbach CFB Game #345 - 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Illinois Illini @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Taking advantage of line value here as Illinois opened up right around a 7 point favorite and then has moved up to being a double digit favorite. I just don't see it with the Illini. Sure Purdue is really no better but that is what you have here. Two bad Big Ten teams matched up so the only difference one could really see as value would be home field but that hasn't held true in this series. The road team has actually gotten the win in each of the last four meetings. Couple that with the fact that the Boilermakers have revenge from a bad home loss to Illinois last year and you have the makings of a truly dangerous "ugly dog" here. Purdue has plenty of motivation and is also coming off of an ugly loss at Maryland. Conversely, the Illini are coming off of a more respectable showing than many expected at Nebraska last week as they only lost by 15 points. However, Illinois was dominated statistically as they were outgained by over 150 yards in the game and the Cornhuskers had more than double the first downs that Illinois compiled. The Illini are on a long-term 15-24 ATS run as a home favorite while the Boilermakers are on an 11-6 ATS run as a road dog. Illinois is an ugly 2-13 ATS when they are off of back to back SU losses and facing a team that is coming off of a SU loss by double digits! That is precisely the case here with the Boilermakers off of that 50-7 loss to the Terrapins last week. Even with the loss last week Purdue is still on an 8-1 ATS run their last 9 games as a double digit dog. Grab the big points with the road dog Boilermakers here. 8* PURDUE Saturday afternoon |
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10-08-16 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut +3 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #332 - 8* Connecticut Huskies (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 11:30 AM ET Saturday - Depending on when and where they were played, the Huskies have delivered as bad as an ugly 0-5 ATS mark this season for their backers. This is helping to give us solid line value here with Connecticut as a 3-point home dog. The Huskies want this game badly as, not since the days of Randy Edsall roaming the sidelines have the Huskies managed to knock off Cincinnati. Each of the last five years UConn has lost to the Bearcats and, after facing the new fast-paced attack of Syracuse and then the powerhouse attack of offensive juggernaut, Houston, the Huskies will be glad to face an offense that is struggling. Cincy can't settle down at the QB position as regular #1 Hayden Moore has been out with an injury and the Bearcats have now waffled between a young QB (Trail) and a veteran QB (Gunner Kiel) who was outplayed by Hayden Moore. The result has been very inconsistent offense from the Bearcats and, in fact, they are now on a 2-7 ATS run dating back to last season. Also, the home team in the match-ups between these two teams is 8-3 ATS even though Cincy has gotten the SU win in five straight match-ups. The Huskies have thrived as a home dog (22-9 ATS) and in their most recent conference home game they upset Houston - the Cougars only loss last season! The Huskies have a rest edge with two extra days off since they last played on Thursday. The Bearcats are on a 2-4 ATS run when they are off of a loss in conference action. As a home dog of 3 points or less the Huskies are on a 7-3 ATS run and this has the makings of an upset as Cincinnati's poor play at the QB position continues to plague them. 8* CONNECTICUT very early Saturday |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17.5 | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #312 - 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:30 ET Friday - Clemson is one of the top teams in the country and I have all the respect in the world for this team. That said, the fact is that the Tigers are in a very tough spot here and I like the line value we are seeing in this one. This line opened up around a 16 but is now as high as an 18 as of gameday morning and Clemson is known for having some struggles at times when they visit Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. The Tigers are off of a key victory in their huge game with Louisville last week but it didn't come easy. Not only did Clemson get outgained by the Cardinals but, also the Tigers had to rally for the win after they gave up a 26-0 run to Louisville after halftime. That game was an emotional come from behind win for Clemson in a marquee game Saturday and now the Tigers are on the road on a short week. In the last 7 meetings between these teams the road team has gotten the cash only 2 times. Clemson has won 3 of their last 5 trips to Chestnut Hill but 2 of the 3 wins came by 6 points or less. Overall, the Tigers are on an ugly 3-7 ATS run as a road favorite. As for Boston College, they come into this game off of a much easier contest compared to the exhausting battle Clemson just had with Louisville. The Eagles just knocked off Buffalo by a 35-3 count with a ridiculous yardage edge of 400 to 67 over the Bulls. Boston College has a bye week on deck which is also a big edge as Clemson is truly in a sandwich spot after the big win over the Cardinals and with NC State on deck for next Saturday's homecoming game. Once again this season the Eagles have a rock solid defense and the offense is improving as 6'5" QB Patrick Towles (a graduate transfer from Kentucky) has gotten more comfortable with the Eagles. Clemson is on an 1-4 ATS run in games played on turf. BC is on a 3-0 ATS run as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Look for the Eagles to give the Tigers a tough battle in this one as the situational edges are big for the home team here. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE Friday |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) @ San Francisco 49'ers @ 8:25 PM ET Thursday - Both teams are off to tough starts at 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS. For the 49'ers this is not such a big surprise but for the Cardinals it certainly is. Arizona should respond in a big way this week even without Carson Palmer at QB as Drew Stanton is expected to get the start. What has killed the Cards the past two weeks is turnovers as they had 5 in each game. This is skewing their results in terms of marketplace perception and now we can take the far superior team here -3 after they were as high as a 4.5 point favorite earlier in the week. The fact is that Arizona, on a yardage basis, actually ranks in the top ten this season both on offense and defense while the 49'ers are near the bottom of the league in both categories. Since beating the Rams in week one, the Niners have been statistically dominated in every single game. They were outgained by 227 yards in week two, 164 yards in week three, and 133 in week four. Now San Francisco is facing a Cardinals team that has beaten them by at least 6 points in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Also, Arizona is on an 8-4 ATS run as an away favorite. First downs are 104-65 in favor of the Cards in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The Cardinals are on a 6-1 ATS run when they are off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin and are then favored against an NFC foe. The Niners are on a 1-5 ATS run in Thursday games. 8* ARIZONA |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7.5 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #302 - 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 8 PM ET Wednesday - On the surface this looks like a complete mismatch as the Eagles are 3-1 on the season while the Red Wolves are 0-4 both SU and ATS. However, Arkansas State has played a much tougher schedule than the Eagles have. Also, this is the Red Wolves conference opener so they are fully aware of the fact that the season is certainly not lost! As for Georgia Southern, even though they are 2-0 in Sun Belt action already, those two victories came over two of the weaker teams in the conference as the Eagles beat South Alabama and Louisiana Monroe who were a combined 7-18 last year. Arkansas State is certainly off to an ugly start this season but they also got off to a poor start last year, 1-3, and then won 8 in a row to wrap up the regular season! The Red Wolves were projected to again be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt Conference and their comeback, in my opinion, starts Wednesday. The line opened up at a -7 for Georgia Southern here and has already moved to a 7.5 in most spots. With the ability to get Arkansas State as a home dog of more than a TD, it definitely is "go time" for me in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that the Red Wolves just lost to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, in their most recent game but the Bears are actually playing quite well this season and are one of the better teams in their conference. Arkansas State did put up 469 yards against Central Arkansas but they did themselves in with turnovers. The Red Wolves will respond this week and they are 13-3 SU (and 11-5 ATS) in their conference games the past two seasons. The past two seasons Arkansas State has also gone 5-2 SU and ATS in their 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Red Wolves are off of a bye week and they are 8-1 ATS when playing with rest and facing a Sun Belt foe. 8* ARKANSAS STATE Wednesday |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Top MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Minnesota @ 8:30 ET Monday - With Sunday's action in the books the Vikings are one of only three undefeated teams in the league. In my opinion this still has the Vikes as being a little over-rated. Minnesota lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to injury late in the pre-season and now lost RB Adrian Peterson to a knee injury. Minnesota has been winning with defense and I am well aware of the fact that this team has a great defense and certainly I respect that. However, this is still a team whose offense has been impacted by these injuries and I am not sold on Sam Bradford at QB. Overall, the Vikings offense is averaging only 265.3 yards per game so far this season and that ranks them near the bottom of the league. Conversely, the Giants offense has rolled up 396.7 yards of offense per game so far this year and that ranks them near the top 5 teams in the league. Every single game the Giants have played this season has been close with an average margin of 2 points per game. The Vikings have one win by just a field goal but the other two wins came by more than a TD margin. However, Minnesota was actually outgained in both of those "big" wins! The Vikings defense has been getting the job done by generating turnovers and this is masking a sub-par offense. With the Giants off of a loss where they turned the ball over 3 times for a 2nd straight game, I am fully confident New York will be fired up and ready to play a "complete game" on MNF and avoid the turnover bug. The Vikings, while deserving credit for a solid defense that is pressuring QB's and forcing turnovers, have been fortunate early this season while the Giants certainly have not been so fortunate. That is what is helping to create the line value here. New York blew a 21-9 lead against Washington last week and I look for Eli Manning and Company to respond this week. The Giants are 7-1 ATS when off of a game against the Redskins. Also, they know QB Bradford very well from his days with the division rival Eagles. As for the Vikings, they are on an 0-7 ATS run on Monday Night Football and also 0-5 ATS when off of a straight-up win as an underdog and facing a team that has a winning record. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 points or less against a non-division opponent. Last, but certainly not least, the Vikings are 2-10 ATS when they are off of a game where they covered the spread by double digits and are now facing a team with revenge. The Giants lost badly at Minnesota late last season and it is time for a little payback. Those angles above add up to a 33-3 ATS mark in favor of the road dog in this one! I am grabbing the points here! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS Monday Night. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -3.5 | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Chiefs are off of a dominating 24-3 win over the Jets where New York QB Ryan Fitzpatrick basically handed them the game. All kidding aside, the Jets had 8 turnovers in that game. As for the Steelers, they are off of their embarrassing 34-3 loss at Philadelphia. If you look at last Sunday's scores only one team was a held to single digits in points (Pittsburgh) and only one team allowed a team only single digits in points (Kansas City). Ironically these teams meet in the next week and that has set exceptional line value for the Steelers here. Earlier in the week they were a 6 point favorite and now they are all the way down to a 3.5 as of Saturday night. I realize both these teams are 2-1 on the season but, in my mind, only one of them is a true Super Bowl contender and that is Pittsburgh. That said, the Steelers are looking to avenge a 10 point loss at Kansas City last year and they went 8-3 ATS the past two seasons in their games against teams with a winning record. As for the Chiefs, they are an ugly 2-4 ATS in their last 6 as a road dog between 3.5 and 7.5 points. Also, the Steelers are on an incredible long term run of 55-33 ATS in the month of October and they are hungry to respond off of last week's embarrassment. Pittsburgh is an incredible 10-0 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 28 points or more. The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS as dogs when they are off of a game where they allowed 7 points or less. Kansas City is also 0-4 ATS as dogs when facing teams from the AFC North. Look for this one to be all Steelers! 8* PITTSBURGH Sunday evening |
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10-02-16 | Rams v. Cardinals -7.5 | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #274 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET Sunday - This line keeps dropping as it is inching closer to a -7 after opening up near a -10. Of course I understand the downward line move because of perception. Everyone saw the Cardinals lay an egg against New England in the season opener and then everyone is looking at their result from last week where Arizona lost 33 to 18 at Buffalo. However, the Cards turned the ball over 5 times in that game and that was the key difference as Arizona actually outgained the Bills 260 to 88 through the air in that game. The Cardinals are a solid team that is much better than the 1-2 record they've got right now. As for the Rams, they won 37 to 32 at Tampa Bay last week but the Buccaneers outgained LA by a 472 to 320 mark and Los Angeles is fortunate to have a 2-1 record on the season. The Cardinals blasted Tampa Bay in week two and they're capable of doing the same to the Rams here in Week 4 as they are again off of a loss and fired up. The Rams have one of the worst offenses in the league as the big points last week was because of turnovers. Los Angeles doesn't have the firepower to keep up here. The Rams are 0-5 ATS when they are on the road and facing a divisional foe who is off of a SU loss as fave. That is precisely the case here with the Cards off of that loss to the Bills. Keep in mind, Arizona got embarrassed last week and they are 6-0 ATS when they are favored against an NFC foe and they are coming off of an ATS loss by double digits to the spread. 8* ARIZONA in late afternoon action Sunday |
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10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL Game #268 - 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The Buccaneers are off of a tough home loss to the Rams last week as they outgained Los Angeles by over 150 yards in the game but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard in the 37-32 final. The Broncos were at the other end of the spectrum as they as they barely outgained the Bengals at Cincinnati but yet won the game by a 29-17 final. Of course this wasn't the first time this season that the Broncos have been quite fortunate as they very nearly lost their season opener to Carolina and that game was at Denver. The Broncos have had to rally for their backers in each of their three games this season. While I certainly respect the Denver defense this is a team that honestly could just as easily be 0-3 ATS as they are 3-0 ATS as they were down in the 3rd or 4th quarter of each of their games. Statistically Denver's offense has been much worse than the points per game average you are seeing for them as a team and, also, the Bucs defense has been much better than their points per game average allowed as a team. Last week's "crazy game" against the Rams was a perfect example as they only gave up 320 yards in that game but 37 points! Denver has only covered 4 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. The Bucs have covered 6 of their last 7 games against a non-conference opponent off of a SU and ATS win. That system fits perfectly here and I look for the Bucs to spring the upset. 10* TAMPA BAY in the late afternoon games Sunday |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks -1.5 v. Jets | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL Game #257 - 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (-) @ New York Jets @ 1 ET Sunday - The Seahawks have gone from being a 3 point favorite in this game to all the way down to a pick'em. The value here is simply too good to pass up on. Seattle has a bye on deck so there is no lookahead for them and, keep in mind, this is still a team that is very hungry because, after winning the Super Bowl three years ago, they then lost the Super Bowl the next season and then last season they were knocked out of the playoffs by Carolina in the divisional round. The last thing the Hawks want to do is go into the bye week with a 2-2 record. The way I see it they already had their "oops" game for the first part of the season when their offense failed to show up at Los Angeles and the Rams beat them in a tight, low-scoring game. As for the defense, they are again performing like one of the elite units in the entire league. That spells bad news for a shaky Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets QB threw 6 picks last week and there is no doubt the Seahawks defense is licking their chops and they are going to "bring it" on Sunday! What is also significant about this line dropping to a pick'em is the fact that Seattle is 6-2 ATS (and a PERFECT 8-0 SU) when they enter a game off of a divisional win. The Seahawks will build off of last week's dominating win over the 49'ers. The Jets are on a 1-4 ATS run in games against NFC opponents and they don't fare well in games projected to be tight. New York is an ugly 4-9 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. I'll take Russell Wilson over Ryan Fitzpatrick any day of the week and I also know that I have the better defense in this one. 10* Seattle Seahawks in early afternoon action Sunday |
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10-01-16 | Arizona State v. USC -10 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
Best Bet Shocker - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - 8* USC Trojans (-) vs Arizona State @ 8:30 ET Saturday - You may be surprised to see me calling a fave a shocker but what I mean by this here is that USC is only 1-3 on the season and Arizona State is 4-0 but the "shock value" is here. The surprise is not just that the 1-3 Trojans are favored by double digits over the Sun Devils but the fact that they should easily cover it! USC has played a much tougher schedule by far as Arizona State's schedule has included Northern Arizona and UTSA! The Sun Devils barely got by the Roadrunners as the 4 point win was certainly not impressive. In Arizona State's other two games against FBS foes their defense was ripped for over 600 yards in each game and they allowed an average of 48 points per game! USC is off of a tough loss at Utah last Friday where they gave up a pair of late scores after appearing to be in command of that game. Now they get a chance to redeem themselves against a lesser foe after having faced tough teams like Alabama and Stanford already this season. The Trojans blasted the Sun Devils 42-14 at Arizona State last year but USC still has a measure of revenge here as well. That's because the last time Southern Cal hosted ASU they gave up 3 late TD's in the final 4 minutes (including a Hail Mary on the last play of the game) to lose by 4 points. USC hasn't forgotten about that happening on their home field. The Trojans are on a 7-0 ATS run in regular season action in games where they are off of a game where they allowed 31 points or more. After allowing 31 to Utah last week, Southern Cal bounces back (as usual) this week! 8* USC Saturday night |
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10-01-16 | Louisville v. Clemson +2 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #164 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET Saturday - Clemson was as high as a 3.5 point favorite when this line came out but they now have moved all the way to being a 2 point dog. This is huge movement and has created significant value that certainly shouldn't be shrugged off. The key here is that everyone saw the Cardinals annihilate Florida State on national TV and that has resulted in an inflated perception about Louisville. Certainly the Cardinals should receive their "just due" but the public is a little enamored with them right now. Keep in mind Louisville's other 3 games came against Charlotte, Syracuse, and Marshall. The Thundering Herd didn't even have their starting QB and also returned only 4 starters on defense this season. As for Syracuse and Charlotte, they both rank near the bottom of FBS schools. The point is that Louisville had a great game plan and executed extremely well against the Seminoles but one game should not define an entire team's season and, in this case, the Cards are now on the road and facing a very tough foe. Clemson has won both of the ACC meetings between these schools and also has a rest edge since the Tigers had a Thursday game last week. Clemson dominated the Yellow Jackets and also looked much stronger against Auburn in week one than what the final score (19-13) would lead you to believe. The Tigers only have Boston College on deck and Clemson has gone 6-1 ATS in their game the week before BC as certainly Clemson knows they can leave it all on the field when it's only the Eagles on deck! The Cardinals win over the Noles is keying the value here and keep in mind, FSU has now allowed 34 points or more in all 3 of their games against FBS schools this season. Is the fact that Louisville ripped Florida State as impressive as it originally seemed? I say absolutely not and I say the Cardinals are going to have trouble with a Clemson defense that is allowing only 11 points per game and the Tigers have the veteran leader at QB in this match-up too of course. Look for Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney to take it to Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino a third straight time. 8* CLEMSON Saturday night |
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10-01-16 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #126 - 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET Saturday - This line dropped from a 3.5 to a 2.5 Friday and that makes 3 a "win number" for West Virginia which is a great value here. I am well aware of the fact that Bill Snyder is one helluva coach and that Kansas State has defeated the Mountaineers each of the last four seasons. However, last year West Virginia outgained the Wildcats 447 to 304 and yet lost the game by a single point. The Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 of 31 through the air. In the last meeting here, in 2014, West Virginia held the Wildcats to a net of ONE rushing yard on 29 carries yet the Mountaineers still fell just short on the scoreboard. Overall, West Virginia has held the first down edge by 49 to 33 in the last two meetings and yet they lost both games on the scoreboard. The point is that coach Snyder hasn't exactly outsmarted Dana Holgorsen in these last two meetings. It's just been a pair of tough, tight losses for West Virginia despite having some key edges. With that said, this is a quadruple revenge spot for the Mountaineers and they are catching K-State at the ideal time. The Wildcats haven't played a tough opponent in a month and that was a double digit loss at Stanford. That was followed by a bye week for the Cats and then easy match-ups with Florida Atlantic and Missouri State! Look for the Wildcats to have trouble adjusting early on as they finally step back on the field with a formidable foe for the first time in 30 days! The Mountaineers are undefeated on the season and got a hard-fought win over BYU last week that will serve them well for facing a well-coached Kansas State team this week. There is only "so much" that coaching can do for a team and the Wildcats are on a 3-7 skid in Big 12 games their last 10 with an average margin of defeat of 15 points in those 7 losses! West Virginia is on a 5-2 ATS run at Mountaineer Field when they are a home favorite. 10* WEST VIRGINIA Saturday afternoon. |
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10-01-16 | Miami (Fla) -7 v. Georgia Tech | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #157 - 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) @ Georgia Tech @ Noon ET Saturday - We are laying right around a 7 in this game but the set-up is truly ideal for a road rout. Even though the Hurricanes have played an easy schedule thusfar it certainly has helped them to build up confidence under new head coach Mark Richt. The former Georgia coach is, of course, very familiar with the Yellow Jackets and their option attack because the Bulldogs frequently faced Georgia Tech and head coach Paul Johnson. That, in and of itself, is a big edge for Richt but also note that the Hurricanes are off of a bye week AND they faced an option attack, Appalachian State, before the bye. The Canes are catching the Jackets at a good time as GT is still licking their wounds after the absolute beating they took against Clemson last Thursday. Georgia Tech was fortunate to beat Boston College earlier this season and only scored 17 points in that game and just 7 against Clemson last week. Overall the Yellow Jackets are on an ugly 2-11 ATS run and Richt is known for his ATS success in victories. When his team wins, he covers at a 67% rate - 90-45 ATS! Look for the Canes to get the win and look for another Richt cover in the victory! The Hurricanes add to their 6-1 ATS run in games against Georgia Tech. 8* MIAMI early Saturday |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #110 - 8* Washington Huskies (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET Friday - The Cardinal are off of a ridiculous cover against UCLA Saturday as Stanford (-3) actually trailed 13-9 late in the game but they got a TD for a 3 point lead with just 24 seconds to go and then got a fumble return for a TD on the last play of the game to win by 9 points. The shocking cover for the Cardinal means that they are now 3-0 both SU and ATS this season and that is helping to create some line value this week. We can get Washington laying just a field goal at home in this one and the Huskies are 4-0 SU but only 2-2 ATS after Saturday's win in overtime over Arizona. Washington may have got caught peeking ahead to this game but they did have over 500 yards of offense in last week's win. Also, the Huskies have already forced at least 3 turnovers in each of their 4 games this season. As for Stanford, the Cardinal have only forced a total of 4 turnovers in their 3 games this year. Both teams have some solid defensive stats so far this year but the Huskies are averaging 103 more yards per game on offense so far this season. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Washington has revenge for a 31-14 loss at Stanford last year. The Huskies are on a 17-9 ATS run as a home fave and have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite in conference games. The scheduling situation here certainly favors the Huskies as the Cardinal are playing back to back road games and on a short week while Washington's short week is helped by the fact their playing at home for the 4th time in 5 weeks this season. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS the week before facing the Ducks and they have a trip to Oregon on deck for next week. Stanford is on a 2-4 ATS run in road games with posted total between 42.5 and 45 points and the Cardinal also are only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played on turf. Look for the Huskies speed, at home on FieldTurf at Husky Stadium to be the difference-maker in this one. 8* WASHINGTON Friday |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7.5 | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
TNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #102 - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Nice set-up from a situational standpoint as the Dolphins are off their first win of the season (against the Browns) and it took overtime to get it. The extra effort (went to OT even though they were facing a bad Cleveland team) will certainly not do any favors for Miami in terms of now being on a short week and having to face an angry Bengals team. Cincinnati started last season 8-0 but they are now 1-2 to start this season as they blew a lead against the Broncos and lost to Denver by 12 last week. The game was certainly much closer than the final scored would indicate and the Broncos barely outgained the Bengals. In Cincy's first two games this season they won the yardage battle each time. The point is that Cincinnati still a much better team than their record is showing while the Dolphins still are a "question mark" at best with what they've shown so far this season. Note also that Miami is on a 1-8 (SU and ATS) run in games played on turf. Cincinnati is 9-1 SU (and 6-3-1 ATS) in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Bengals have been strong when off of back to back SU losses. They were knocked out of the post-season in their first game in the playoffs in 2012 and then lost their season opener in 2013. Off those back to back SU losses, they responded with a win and cover in game 2 of the 2013 season. This began a stretch where Marvin Lewis and his Bengals are now a PERFECT 5-0 SU and ATS when they enter a game on a 2-game SU losing streak. Look for that streak to reach 6-0 this week! 8* CINCINNATI on Thursday |
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09-26-16 | Falcons +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 45-32 | Win | 105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:30 ET Monday - Huge revenge game for the Falcons as they lost both match-ups to the Saints last year. The first one, at New Orleans, ended Atlanta's 5-game winning streak to start the season. That also began an ugly 1-7 run for the Falcons that ruined their season. They haven't forgotten and, even though the Saints will be hungry here because of an 0-2 start to the season, the Falcons won't be denied. Both teams have solid offenses but New Orleans struggled at New York in the loss to the Giants last week. The Saints defense only allowed 16 points last week but 3 turnovers were the key as New Orleans actually allowed 417 yards. Also, prior to that game, the Saints had allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last 10 games. New Orleans is only 4-10 ATS in the role of home favorite and the revenge-minded Falcons are coming into this one flying high after another strong performance from QB Matt Ryan in last week's win at Oakland. Atlanta outgained the Saints in both meetings in each of the past two years but last year still lost both on the scoreboard. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is fired up about getting his first win over this division rival (after going 0-2 last year) and you can bet the defensive-minded coach paid plenty of attention to how the Giants frustrated Drew Brees and the Saints offense last week. More of the same this week. 10* ATLANTA Monday Night |
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09-25-16 | Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys | 17-31 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
Sunday Night Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #487 - 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Dallas @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Bears will have QB Brian Hoyer under center for this one and truly he will be an upgrade for Chicago as Jay Cutler struggled badly last week. Look for the 0-2 Bears to rally around Hoyer for this game and note that the defense has been solid for Chicago. This line move up from a 5.5 to a 7.5 before setting back in right around 7 as of Saturday evening. This is a great value spot to grab the dog as the Bears catch Dallas off of a fortunate win. The Cowboys struggled with the Redskins last week and Washington looked like they were going to punch it in and take a 10 point late lead before an errant pass in a "goal to go" situation ended up being a 14-point swing. It was some of the stupidest play-calling I have ever seen from a head coach as the Redskins consistently moved the ball against Dallas but then made some risky play-calls and finally got burned on one that decided the game. Credit is due to Dallas for hanging in there and grabbing the 4 point win but it truly was a gift from Washington and I am not impressed with the Dallas defense this season. The Cowboys gave up 432 yards to the Redskins and you can bet that Hoyer is going to be looking to the make the most of this opportunity in the national spotlight against a secondary that has a lot of question marks. Dallas is known for struggling at home and they have gone 5-16 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team from outside their division. Also, the Bears are led by a defensive-minded head coach and you can bet John Fox will have some special packages in mind for facing Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott in this one. Even though the Bears have a division rival on deck, Chicago actually has gone a phenomenal 14-2 ATS in their game prior to facing the Lions. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS when Dallas is off of a straight-up win and facing a team that has a losing record and is playing with revenge. That is the case here as the Cowboys got the fortunate win over the Redskins last week while the Bears are 0-2 on the season and seeking to avenge a loss in Chicago in 2014 when Dallas most recently faced the Bears. 8* CHICAGO Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Steelers v. Eagles +4 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #482 - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET Sunday - No one believes in the Eagles yet because they've only beaten the Browns and Bears. However, Cleveland actually jumped on Baltimore 20-0 last week before eventually losing. You didn't see Cleveland jump on top of Philly 20-0 did you? As for the match-up with the Bears, even though Chicago's offense certainly may have some issues they are a solid defense and well-coached by John Fox who is certainly a defensive-minded head coach. The Bears weren't able to stop the Eagles in what was supposed to be the Eagles first loss of the year. Now the talk is that Pittsburgh will take them down because finally the Eagles face a top team. Perhaps this is the week that Philadelphia loses but, if they do, it should not be by more than a field goal. Let's not forget, Philly has home field here, and also their defense is vastly improved and certainly the overall "locker room" and team "chemistry" is worlds better now in Philly. Give credit to new coach Doug Pederson and the entire Eagles management team. They are doing a good job already in Philly in terms of having put the right pieces together and that certainly includes rookie QB Carson Wentz who certainly is not your "average rookie" in terms of his intellect for the playbook and for making quick decisions in terms of reading coverages and reading defenses overall. He is a sharp kid with a strong arm and he'll give Pittsburgh some trouble Sunday as, fortunately for the Eagles, they are catching the Steelers at the perfect time. Pittsburgh just got a huge win last week over the division rival Bengals and that is always a physical game that is very taxing mentally and physically to the Steelers. The last 4 times that Pittsburgh is off of a game against Cincinnati they have not covered their next game a single time. The Eagles have their bye week on deck so they will certainly put every ounce of energy into this game and the atmosphere at The Linc is certainly going to be electric. As for the Steelers, they poured every ounce of energy into last week's key divisional win! Philly is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents. Even though these teams are in the same state they don't meet often since they are in opposite conferences but historians will like the fact that the Eagles have covered 4 of the last 5 including all 3 in Philly. The Eagles continue to be undervalued as, with their bye week on deck and with the Steelers off a very demanding divisional showdown, the situational edge here is with the home dog. 8* PHILADELPHIA Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Broncos v. Bengals -3 | 29-17 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #462 - 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET Sunday - The Broncos have been fortunate so far this season. Certainly Denver has a solid defense and I would never argue that. However, new QB Siemian now makes the first road start of his NFL career. Keep in mind, he made a lot of mistakes against the Panthers in Week 1 and the Broncos were fortunate to win that game. Then, last week against Indianapolis, Siemian was certainly aided by the fact that the Broncos DEFENSE scored a pair of touchdowns. Cincinnati is fired up after their loss to Pittsburgh last week as the Bengals outgained the Steelers but lost the game by 8 points. Cincy has won each of their last 4 home openers handily and did not lose a single one ATS either. The Bengals threw for 366 yards last week against Pittsburgh and that aerial attack will be the key to keeping the Broncos D off balance. The Broncos are on a 7-16 ATS run when they are a road dog outside of their own division. The Bengals are on a 13-6 ATS run when they are a home favorite. Also, Cincy is on a 9-0 ATS run against AFC West opponents and, believe it or not, Cincinnati is actually on a 6-1 ATS run in their game that immediately follows facing Pittsburgh. A tightener to that is that the last 4 times in a regular season game after losing to the Steelers in the prior game, the Bengals are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS in their next game! Cincy is fired up again after the loss to the Steelers and I look for Siemian to struggle in his first road start. 8* CINCINNATI Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Lions v. Packers -6.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET Sunday - The Packers are off of a disappointing loss on Sunday Night Football. They will be hungry for another huge divisional game this Sunday in what is also their home opener. Green Bay has only lost the money ONCE in their last NINE home openers. The fact this line has moved from an 8.5 opener all the way down to as low as a 6.5 as of Saturday evening means that we are getting excellent line value here. Green Bay has underperformed on offense so far this season but they did face a tough Vikings defense last week. Now this week the Packers are finally at home and they also face one of the worst defenses in the league. The Lions only allowed 16 points last week but the Titans were a combined 5-27 the last two seasons and yet still went into Detroit and upset them last week. The Lions allowed 13 fourth quarter points to Tennessee. This was after the Lions gave up 35 points on 450 yards at Indianapolis in Week One. Now Detroit must contend with a fired up Packers team that is on a 21-11 ATS run in a game after a straight-up loss. That defeat to the Vikings will bring out the best in Green Bay Sunday for their home opener and I am well aware of the fact that the Lions are seeking revenge for the Hail Mary loss at Ford Field last year but, keep in mind, the Packers also have revenge on their minds here. That's because Detroit beat the Pack at Lambeau last season the for the first time in 24 years! It's payback time! 8* GREEN BAY Sunday |
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09-24-16 | Arkansas +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #363 - 10* Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies in Arlington, Texas @ 9 PM ET Saturday - A match-up of unbeatens and the Aggies are also 3-0 ATS. However, their week one win was over UCLA in overtime. A & M gave up 468 yards in that game. Their 2nd game was against Prairie View so certainly that was a chance for the Aggies to pad their stats. Then, last week, A & M did knock off Auburn but the Tigers had 26 first downs (compared to 19 for the Aggies) and Auburn did amass 236 yards on the ground. Keep in mind that the Aggies are known for struggling against the run and the Razorbacks have outgained them on the ground by a margin of 517 to 202 in the last two meetings between these teams. Texas A & M did prevail in those games but both were decided in overtime. There is exceptional line value here with the Razorbacks as a 6.5 point dog (as of Friday evening) as they are on a 9-1 ATS run when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Arkansas blasted Texas State 42 to 3 last week. Arky is also on an 11-4-1 ATS run in SEC games including 9-2-1 when they are an underdog in SEC action. The Aggies are on a 4-8-1 ATS run as a fave in SEC action and A & M is 7-17-1 ATS overall against SEC foes. The Aggies are over-rated right now, early in this season, as they have played the weaker schedule compared to Arkansas. Also, this is a neutral site game and Arkansas is arguably the better team. The Razorbacks defense did return 9 starters from last year's team and they are improved and it looks like head coach Bret Bielema will finally get his revenge against Kevin Sumlin and his Aggies. The Razorbacks are on a 7-1 ATS run in games where they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Arky is on an 11-4 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Conversely, A & M is on a 3-10 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Look for these trends to continue here. 10* ARKANSAS Saturday |
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09-24-16 | Florida v. Tennessee -4.5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #384 - 8* Tennessee Volunteers (-) vs Florida Gators @ 3:30 ET Saturday - The Gators have won 11 straight times over the Vols. The opening line on this game saw the odds makers hang an 8 on the Volunteers! Free money, right? The odds makers have lost their minds, right? Hardly! How many times have you seen that happen? That is simply not the case and yet the whole world has jumped on Florida here as this line is down to a 4.5 as of Friday evening. The fact is that there is plenty of good reasoning for the Vols putting an end to the losing streak with the Gators in Saturday's match-up and that is why I have no reservation about laying the very reasonable number now available on the home team in this one. First off, the Gators lost their starting QB last week and his replacement (Austin Appleby) though experienced, has a 2-9 record as a starter in his college career. The Vols have a the huge edge at QB as Joshua Dobbs is a senior who is the perfect guy to play behind a shaky offensive line (admittedly a weakness of the Volunteers). Even though the Gators may get some penetration they have to be very careful because Dobbs is elusive and then he burns teams with his legs or with busted coverage downfield by extending the play. Many forget that last season the Vols were up 27-14 late in the fourth quarter before some "gator magic" helped lead Florida to the win but that game was in the Swamp. It will be a much different story on the road this time around and the key to last season's match-up was that Vols head coach Butch Jones certainly had a good game plan! The 254 rushing yards that Tennessee had was the most that head coach Jim McElwain's Gators allowed all season long. I am well aware of the fact that Florida is off to an amazing start on defense this year but playing a weak schedule so far has certainly helped in that regard. Now the Gators take a big step up in terms of taking on a quality opponent and, unlike last season, the Vols won't blow a fourth quarter two touchdown lead this time around. Look for Gators QB Appleby to drop to 2-10 as a starter in his career. 8* TENNESSEE Saturday |
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09-24-16 | Florida State -5 v. South Florida | 55-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #387 - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) @ South Florida Bulls @ Noon ET Saturday - The Noles were completely embarrassed in their 63-20 loss at Louisville last week. The Seminoles gave up 520 yards to the Cardinals in that game. They now face a Bulls team that is a 3-0 both SU and ATS so far this season. However, South Florida also gave up huge yardage last week and that was at Syracuse! The fact is that the Bulls have had a very easy schedule so far this season with games against Towson (FCS school), Northern Illinois (off a multi-OT road loss), and then the Orange last week. By the way, Syracuse lit up the Bulls "vaunted" defense for 549 yards! The point I am making is that the fact that South Florida has allowed 20 points or less in each of their three games this season is certainly something that should have an asterisk by it as they haven't played anywhere close to the schedule that FSU has. Though the Noles week one win over Ole Miss seems like a distant memory, it shouldn't be that way. This is a good Seminoles team that is fired up and that has not lost back to back games in 5 years! That's right, the Noles have not lost consecutive games since 2011. Their current streak (66 games) is only bettered by one team, Oregon (70) in the entire country. That said, I have no qualms about laying the 5 points here as the Seminoles have beaten the Bulls by a combined score of 64 to 31 in their last two meetings and they are fully focused for this opportunity to get back on track after last week's debacle. 8* FLORIDA STATE Saturday |
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09-23-16 | TCU -21 v. SMU | 33-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #305 - 8* TCU Horned Frogs (-) @ SMU Mustangs @ 8 ET Friday - Tough break for SMU with losing their starting QB, a senior, to a season ending knee injury. With Davis out, a freshman has taken over the reins at the QB position and it has certainly been a struggle for Ben Hicks. The young QB was playing high school ball in Waco last fall and, not surprisingly, he has struggled with a low completion rate plus he has thrown way too many picks here at the collegiate level. The Mustangs offense does move the ball well under head coach Chad Morris but the turnovers and mistakes have hurt SMU badly and they now face a TCU team that already saw the Morris offense last year. That spells trouble for the Mustangs and I expect the struggles for freshman QB Hicks to continue. As for the Horned Frogs, their offense can again "roll it up" on an SMU defense that continues to be the weakness of the team. Last year SMU allowed 45.7 points per game to rank near the very bottom of FBS schools. This season, they have been helped so far by facing a weak schedule to start the season with North Texas and Liberty included already this month but, in their one tough test Baylor put up 34 points in the 2nd half against the Mustangs after a rare, sluggish first half for the Bears. TCU is well aware of those first half struggles that Baylor had and the Horned Frogs already had an upset loss this season (against Arkansas). That said, there is no question they are going to bring full effort here for the full sixty minutes in this one! Keep in mind that, even though this is a non-conference match-up, both of these teams are from the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and that insures that the Horned Frogs, even with a big lead, are not going to take their foot off of the gas in this one. TCU has scored at least 48 points in each of their last three games against SMU and the Mustangs only scored 13 against Baylor earlier this season. I rarely lay big points like this but everything points to a win here by about 5 TDs rather than the 3 TD margin that is the current spread on this one. By the way, TCU is on a perfect 5-0 ATS run in games after facing Iowa State. Also, SMU is just 2-8 ATS their last 10 as a home dog. Also, the road team has covered 6 of the last 9 in this series and the Horned Frogs won't let up here considering this is the Battle for the Iron Skillet. The last time the Mustangs hosted this rivalry game SMU was demolished 56 to 0. Another ugly home loss looms here. 8* TCU Friday |
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09-22-16 | Clemson -9.5 v. Georgia Tech | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #303 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET Thursday - The last time Clemson visited Georgia Tech they lost 28 to 6 two years ago. That said, even though the Tigers have a big game on deck with Louisville coming up next week, there is no way that Clemson will overlook the Yellow Jackets here. That is bad news for Georgia Tech because, though their 3-0 record looks great, they truly haven't faced anything close to the quality of an opponent like the Tigers this season. Georgia Tech has faced Boston College (1-2 and just lost to Virginia Tech 49-0) and Mercer (an FCS school) and Vanderbilt (1-2 and only win came against Middle Tennessee State). Now the Yellow Jackets take on one of the best teams in the nation and Clemson drilled them 43-24 last year as Georgia Tech was held to their lowest yardage output of the season. The Tigers run defense is allowing only 2.6 yards per carry this season and that will be a key in shutting down the Yellow Jackets triple-option offense which is so heavily focused on the ground game. Clemson held Auburn to a total of only 262 yards in their week one non-covering win. Auburn got a late TD for the backdoor cover but Clemson has now forced 8 turnovers in their first three games and their defense will be a key. Just like last year, the Tigers again give the Yellow Jackets offense a lot of problems and drop Georgia Tech to 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 lined games. The Tigers are on a 17-9-1 ATS run in ACC action and this is their conference opener. Their first ACC game, Georgia Tech's 3-0 start, and past struggles in road games against the Yellow Jackets means a fully focused effort from the road team here. Look for a road rout to be the result. 8* CLEMSON Thursday |
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09-19-16 | Eagles +3 v. Bears | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #289 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:30 ET Monday - The Bears are 9-22-1 ATS in home game the past 4 seasons combined. This is their home opener and it is Monday night and yes, it is the Eagles Carson Wentz first road contest as an NFL rookie. However, he is not your "typical" rookie QB in that he ran a pro style offense in college at North Dakota State. Also, his intellect is off the charts and this has helped him learn the playbook of the Eagles very quickly as well as helping to make good, split-second decisions on the field. Even though the Eagles win in Week 1 came against the Browns and much was made to downgrade the Philadelphia victory, that was the same Cleveland team that jumped out to a 20-0 lead over Baltimore yesterday before eventually falling just short of an upset win over the Ravens. As for the Bears, not only has Soldier Field not been special for them at the betting window in recent seasons, this offense has struggled as they ranked 23rd out of 32 teams for scoring last season. In week 1, the Bears only managed 258 yards and 14 first downs. The Eagles defense was very impressive in last week's win as they held the Browns to 10 points, 288 yards, and 14 first downs. Wentz threw for nearly 300 yards plus had 2 passing TDs in the win over Cleveland. The Bears are currently on an 0-6 ATS skid in home games when they are off of a non-conference game. After Chicago was held scoreless by the Texans in the 2nd half of last week's game, look for the Eagles to be mindful of the adjustments that Houston made at halftime that led to the shutout of Chicago in the second half last week. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS on Mondays when they enter Monday Night Football off of a straight-up win. After knocking off the Browns last week, look for the Eagles to build off of that momentum. Supported by that 8-1 ATS stat and the 6-0 ATS stat against the Bears we've got combined 14-1 ATS edges working in our favor in this one and I expect the Bears home ATS futility to continue. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-18-16 | Packers -1.5 v. Vikings | 14-17 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
Blowout Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #287 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 PM ET Sunday - The Vikings are expected to start Sam Bradford who was acquired from the Eagles right before the season. Minnesota snuck by the Titans at Tennessee last week but the QB situation is a concern with all the issues due to Teddy Bridgewater's injury happening so late in training camp. The Vikes beat the Titans by 9 points last week but Minnesota was outgained in that game as the win was certainly helped by a +3 turnover margin. Keep in mind though that this was a Tennessee team that is a combined 5-27 the past two seasons. Now Vikings, still trying to adjust at QB, face a fierce division rival with revenge on their minds. The Packers lost the season finale to Minnesota last year and that resulted in Minny winning the division and Green Bay entered the playoffs on the road as a wild card. It is now time for a little payback and we're getting line value here because the line has gone from as a high as a -3 on Green Bay to very nearly a pick'em. Of course the Vikes are a popular choice this week since they're opening up their new stadium and have done so well at home ATS in recent seasons. What many are not realizing is that the Vikings just are not the same team without Bridgewater and bringing in Bradford now could be a disaster. He has had very little time to adjust to the Vikings playbook and now faces a fierce division rival in primetime action. The Vikings defense led the way in last week's win but QB Aaron Rodgers and company...present a much tougher challenge than the Titans did last week. The Packers, prior to the loss to the Vikes at the end of the regular season last year, had won 5 games and tied once with the Vikings in their last 6 meetings. Minnesota hadn't beaten Green Bay since the 2012 season. Look for the Packers to give Bradford and a weak Vikings offense all sorts of trouble here. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday night |
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09-18-16 | Colts +7 v. Broncos | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Shocker of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #281 - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Broncos survived their season opener but it truly was a "choppy" debut for new QB Siemian as turnovers certainly were an issue. Overall the Broncos were outgained and narrowly held on for the 1 point victory. I look for Denver to be exposed here as the Colts offense is so dangerous with QB Luck at the controls and Indianapolis put up 450 yards of offense in last week's loss to the Lions. Of course the issue for the Colts, as it was last week against the Lions, is their defense. However, this Broncos offense is going to have some "growing pains" with Siemian at the helm. Denver is on an 0-9 ATS run in games against the Colts and with this spread working all the way up from an opener of 4.5 to a 7 as of Saturday, it is "go time" for me. Indianapolis, the last 10 times they are off of a loss and then are a dog of at least a point or more (basically out of the pick'em price range) they have gone 10-0 ATS! Fired up after a missed opportunity win at home against Detroit last week, the Colts will bring their "A game" this week. The Broncos, by virtue of sneaking out that 1 point win over Carolina, continue to be over-rated and that is evident by the line move here as the Denver backers are out in full force. The Colts are very hungry off of their disappointing 8-8 campaign and the super bowl champ Broncos certainly have a target on their backs this season. Denver is on a 2-5 ATS run as a home fave of 3.5 to 7 points and the Colts are on a 6-2 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points . 10* INDIANAPOLIS in the later games Sunday afternoon |
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09-18-16 | Cowboys v. Redskins -3 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 - 8* Washington Redskins (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 PM ET Sunday - The Redskins won't be popular with the betting markets this week as everyone watched them get obliterated by the Steelers on Monday Night and Washington is now on a short week. The key here though is that this is a huge rivalry game and it is a key road test for the Cowboys rookie QB. Though Prescott didn't make key mistakes last week sometimes playing too cautious can cost a team too. Note that star WR Bryant only caught one pass and "managing a game" but still losing is a fruitless endeavor. Now Prescott faces a much tougher test on the road and the Redskins are fired up after losing by 22 points last week versus Pittsburgh. Lets not forget that the Skins are the defending NFC East champs and Dallas continues to have a putrid record without Tony Romo at QB. Washington is on a 4-1 ATS run in divisional battles while Dallas is on an overall 3-11 ATS run. The Redskins have lost their home game with the Cowboys each of the last three seasons and that means it is time for a little payback today as they have the defense capable of giving a rookie QB a lot of trouble. Look for their defensive line to get a lot of pressure on Prescott and also look for a myriad of blitzes and stunts from the Skins defense in this one. 8* WASHINGTON early Sunday afternoon |
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09-17-16 | Ohio State v. Oklahoma +1 | 45-24 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
Marquee Showdown - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #192 - 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Ohio State is ranked #3 in the country and the Buckeyes have won their first two games this season by a combined score of 125 to 13. Oklahoma is ranked #14 in the nation but what the betting markets remember about them is their ugly season-opening loss against Houston. The Sooners are 0-2 ATS on the season and the Buckeyes are already 2-0 ATS this season. All of the above considered don't you find it curious that this line is only in the "pick'em" range on Ohio State? Exactly! Once again another contrarian play for me as I am going to grab the team that everyone remembers from their poor performance against Houston and I am going to fade the much higher ranked team that has been absolutely dominate so far this season. How can we do this with confidence? For one thing, the Sooners know they can't afford another loss. They have an "us against the world" mentality for this game and OU is hungry to prove they belong with the elite in college football after their disappointing week 1 performance. Keep in mind that the Buckeyes haven't truly been tested yet as they were favored by 4 TD's in each of their first two games. Keep in mind this is an OSU team that returned only 6 starters from last year's team while Oklahoma returned 13 starters from a team that was in the playoffs last year and OU, unlike OSU, certainly has already been tested this season by virtue of that big battle with Houston in Week 1. The Sooners erased some of the opening week disappointment with a 59-17 win over Louisiana Monroe last week but OU knows they need this game Saturday to get back into the national spotlight that they are use to being in. Though the Buckeyes win last week looks great at first glance, Ohio State certainly benefited from 6 Tulsa turnovers in that game. The Buckeyes offense didn't move the ball all that well for long periods of time especially early in the game. That same questionable offense will face a much stiffer test this week in Norman, OK! 8* OKLAHOMA Saturday evening |
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09-17-16 | Michigan State v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 36-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #186 - 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Michigan State is ranked HIGHER than Notre Dame and yet the Spartans opened up as MORE than a TD underdog in this game! What does that tell you? Exactly! If you're a contrarian player like I am you are all over the Fighting Irish in this game. There is a reason the line may "look funny" and that's because Michigan State has had many successful seasons in recent years. However, as I stated before the season, the Spartans will be one of the teams I'll be looking to fade this year. Michigan State lost QB Connor Cook and also a ton of other returning starters on both sides of the ball. Even though the D should still be solid for the Spartans (despite losing a lot of starters) their offense is truly being "rebuilt" and they won't have the firepower to keep up with Notre Dame here. The Fighting Irish have already been tested as they had that tough battle with Texas to open up the season. As for the Spartans, they opened up against an FCS team, Furman, and then had a bye week last week. This has done very little to prepare Michigan State for the "onslaught" that this high-powered Notre Dame offense is going to throw at them Saturday. The Irish offense has averaged 33.5 points per game under Brian Kelly the last two seasons and they are already putting up big points this season (and not against FCS schools). The Spartans only beat Furman by 15 points in week one and the Irish didn't allow a TD to Nevada last week until late 4th quarter. It was a much better performance for the defense compared to week one against Texas but, again, the key here is that the Irish are at home and can put up points in a hurry and the Spartans offense just doesn't have the ability to "keep up" in a game like this. Don't be fooled by the line here. The Spartans will be exposed early this season and this is the first such opportunity so it is the right time to jump in. Michigan State is 2-6 ATS in September games the past 2+ seasons. The Irish are on an 11-2 SU run and 9-4 ATS run in home games! 10* NOTRE DAME Saturday evening |
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09-17-16 | Oregon v. Nebraska -3 | Top | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
TOP Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #168 - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Here you have an unranked Cornhuskers team taking on a ranked Ducks team and yet Nebraska is a 3 point favorite over Oregon. Of course this has many bettors flocking to Oregon but truly the odds makers knew what they were doing here. Nebraska is a team on the rise and the Ducks truly aren't the same team they were in recent seasons and yet Oregon remains very popular with bettors. Of course this helps drive value for us in spots like this as I expect Nebraska win this game by double digits. The Huskers have an edge here with head coach Mike Riley formerly coaching at Oregon State. As head man of the Beavers you have to know the Ducks program inside and out and that is an edge here. Cornhuskers QB Armstrong had a huge game last week through the air and Nebraska also delivered a huge game on the ground in the prior week. Certainly I respect the Oregon offense but their defense is very vulnerable and even got gashed by the ground game of Virginia and the Cavaliers certainly aren't known for that. The Huskers have the right personnel and systems to pound on the ground again like Nebraska teams of old but Armstrong also gives them the huge aerial threat that keeps defenses off balance. Note that Oregon had their worst season in a long time with a 9-4 showing last year and their defense allowed 485 yards per game and they now have a new defensive coordinator in Brady Hoke. This is a team that is regressing even though head coach Mark Helfrich is in his fourth year here. They just don't have the same talent level they had in the Chip Kelly years and they lost a ton of starters from last year's team. Conversely, Nebraska returned most of their starters from last year and, after a down year last year, they are poised to bounce back and have already covered each of their first two games while the Ducks are already 0-2 ATS. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday afternoon. |
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09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #174 - 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET - After the gut-wrenching loss to Central Michigan last week, Oklahoma State is fired up for this one. The Cowboys also benefit from catching Pittsburgh off of an emotional win over in-state rival Penn State as the Panthers renewed their rivalry with the Nittany Lions last week. Pitt has their ACC opener on deck and, even though OSU has their Big 12 opener on the deck, the travel situation strongly favors the Cowboys here. Oklahoma State is playing their third straight home game while the Panthers are making an unusual road trip to Big Twelve country. It is the first time Pittsburgh has played on the road against a Big 12 team since they traveled to Nebraska in 2005. The Cowboys returned the majority of their starters from last season's team so they have a veteran group that is ready to respond appropriately at home in Stillwater, OK after last week's unreal finish that handed them a tough loss. Look for the Cowboys to improve to 10-5 as a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 10 points while dropping the Panthers to 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE Saturday |
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09-16-16 | Baylor v. Rice +31.5 | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #106 - 8* Rice Owls (+) vs Baylor Bears @ 8 ET Friday - Rice certainly fits the definition of "ugly dog" in this match-up but, simply put, the points being offered here are quite generous when you consider all the factors in this match-up. Keep in mind that, like the Owls, the Bears are also 0-2 ATS this season. They continue to be overvalued and truly, are not playing as well under interim coach Jim Grobe in comparison with the pre-scandal days. The Baylor program has certainly been impacted and this is their first road game of the season while also being Rice's first home game and the Owls made some significant upgrades to their facility that were completed this summer and Rice has been looking forward to this game with great anticipation. Bears interim head coach Grobe, after back to back ATS losses to start this season, is on a 1-13 ATS run as a non-conference favorite of 7 points or more. Though he and the Bears may win this big, I don't see them covering the current number of 31.5 points. Last week Baylor was tied at the half with SMU as penalties also have hurt the Bears early this season. This Bears team has quite a bit of inexperience and immaturity that has impacted them and I foresee another non-covering win here for Baylor. Grobe has no reason to run up the score on head coach David Bailiff and the Owls but don't be surprised if this one is much closer than many would expect. Rice had an awful season on defense last year but they returned most of those starters. Facing Western Kentucky's fantastic passing attack and Army's dominating ground game (both games on the road) back to back is a tough way to start the season. Now, at home, and playing with revenge from a 70-17 beating at Baylor last year, the Owls will be hungry for a huge performance at Rice Stadium in Houston. If Art Briles (gone after the scandal) was still the coach at Baylor this one might play out differently. But under coach Grobe (and with the team having been impacted by the off-season issues) this game is unlikely to be decided by more than three TDs. Grobe teams just don't have a knack for running up huge scores and, keep in mind, their big win in week one was against a clearly over-matched FCS team, Northwestern State. Rice is on par with the SMU team that Baylor struggled with through the first half last week and, keep in mind, that game was in Waco. The Owls keep this one respectable in their home opener. 8* RICE OWLS Friday |
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09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills +1.5 | 37-31 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #102 - 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs New York Jets @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Certainly the Bills offense was ugly in their 13-7 loss at Baltimore last week. Definitely this is a revenge spot for the Jets after Buffalo went 2-0 against them last season with the season finale win keeping the Jets from the playoffs. However, all of that said, Bills coach Rex Ryan has a special disdain for his former team, the Jets, and he and the entire city of Buffalo will "bring it" again tonight. I definitely like the value afforded by the line move here as the Bills opened up as a 3 point favorite but are now a 1.5 point dog as of very early gameday morning. Some key ATS stats are certainly in our favor here. Buffalo is 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they are off of a game where they scored less than 10 points. Also, the Bills are 5-1 ATS when they are in the first of back to back home games. With this being Buffalo's home opener, and with a home game on deck with a strong Arizona team, the Bills will be "all in" to win this game which certainly strengthens the validity of that 5-1 ATS mark in this spot. As for the Jets, note the Bills did open up as a FG fave here and certainly it would not surprise me to see this line move back to where Buffalo ends up being favored in this game. Should that occur, note that the Jets are 1-6 ATS as road dogs of less than 4 points. Though the Bills have struggled on the road in recent seasons (and that continued in Week 1) they are a different team at home. Buffalo is 16-8 ATS in home games the past 3 seasons combined. The Jets lost a handful of starters from the defense in the off-season and I expect that side of the ball to be their downfall this season. In their season opener the Jets allowed the Bengals to complete 23 of 30 passes for 324 yards. The Jets are 3-8 ATS in games with a posted line between +3 and -3 the last 3 seasons combined. Buffalo is on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional games. The Bills also are on a 4-0 ATS run in home openers. Orchard Park, NY will be rocking tonight as a big home win over a hated rival will do wonders for this team and they are starting to believe that they can finally break their 17-year post-season drought as they have inched closer to being a playoff team the past two seasons with a 9-7 record in 2014 and playing .500 ball in 2015. The Bills laid an egg last week on offense against the Ravens but they've shown a history of bouncing back after ugly efforts like that on the offensive side of the ball. Look for the Bills to play another solid defensive game to complement a bounce back performance on offense that attacks the Jets suspect secondary. 8* BUFFALO BILLS Thursday |
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09-12-16 | Steelers -2.5 v. Redskins | 38-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
Monday Night Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #479 - 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 7:10 ET Monday - We're getting some line value here since running back LeVeon Bell is out for the Steelers (for the first 3 games) and also wide receiver Martavis Bryant is suspended for this season. The key is that the Pittsburgh ground game has ample support behind Bell and, there also is reason to believe that one of the top passing offenses in the league will again do just fine here. Remember the retirement of Hines Ward before the 2012 season? Or how about the departures of Mike Wallace in 2013 and Emmanuel Sanders in 2014? No matter what the situation, the Steelers have consistently found other guys ready to "step up" and pair with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to provide great complimentary firepower to #1 wide receiver Antonio Brown. I don't expect this to be any different against the Washington Redskins on Monday night as the Steelers have some talent that could "step up" once again with guys like Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers. With the Steelers on the road and with the impact of the suspension, this potential Super Bowl contender is priced at very low number and that price has dropped a little making 3 a "win number" now for Pittsburgh. That means it is now "go time" for me. The Redskins have a history of struggling (5-16 ATS) in Monday night home games. Also, even though Washington is a home dog here, that is a role that - when not facing an NFC East foe - has seen the 'Skins go 4-9 ATS overall in recent seasons. Outside of their division, the Redskins don't look so strong! As I wrote in my NFL Preview analysis prior to the season, the problem with the Redskins in my opinion, from a “value” standpoint, is that many will be on the Washington bandwagon early on when looking at the NFC East. That’s because of the Cowboys dealing with the Romo injury coupled with the fact that Washington won the division last season. As I noted then, I am expecting to see some nice “go against” ATS spots with the Redskins early this season in particular. That said, here is our first one as, sure enough, some Washington money is coming in and knocking this line down and the line was already 'short' in my opinion. The Steelers are one of the best teams in the league, the Redskins are not even necessarily the best team in the NFC East - a division that arguably could go to any of the 4 teams. Take advantage of the value here with the Bell suspension. 8* PITTSBURGH Monday. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots v. Cardinals -7 | 23-21 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Patriots have gone 15-6-3 ATS at home the past three seasons combined while only going 8-16 ATS on the road during this same stretch. I look for the road struggles to continue in a very tough "first test" missing some key players early this season. Rob Gronkowski is dealing with a hamstring injury and of course then there is the Tom Brady suspension (first four games of the season). That the Pats will have Jimmy Garoppolo under center early this season and that will certainly have an impact here against a tough Cardinals team. Even though the line has been adjusted due to the situation with these two key players, it is not enough. Keep in mind that the Pats have enjoyed a lot of success for many years thanks to beating up on a relatively weak AFC East division. This season, the Patriots will be facing the AFC North and NFC West as part of the non-divisional action and that means some tougher match-ups for New England just like this one at Arizona! Garoppolo has had only 31 passing attempts in his NFL career. He is a back-up for a reason! While the Pats have thrived in the AFC East it is impressive what Arizona has done outside of the NFC West! The Cards are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games outside of their division. The Cardinals are one of the most balanced teams as they are so "stacked" on both sides of the ball and the Cards are so well coached. Arizona has gotten off to fast starts under Bruce Arians in each of his three seasons and this not just SU but also at the betting window as they are 11-4 ATS in their first 5 games over the 3 seasons. With Garoppolo, and not Brady, leading the Pats this is the perfect time to fade Bill Belichick as Cardinals coach Arians is one of the best in the league and he's got the better personnel on the field for this one plus home field edge. 8* ARIZONA CARDINALS |
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09-11-16 | Giants +1 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 - 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Cowboys lost 11 of their 12 games without Tony Romo last season and, of course, that is the big story line coming into the new season after he got hurt in the preseason. One of the big keys here is that Dak Prescott is being hailed for his preseason performance with Dallas and that he should hit the ground running for the Cowboys here in Game one. The problem with that angle is that regular season is nothing like preseason. The trouble for Prescott is not going to be his athletic ability or his arm strength or his legs. The problem is going to be making proper adjustments to all the defensive sets he's going to see with stunts, blitzes, etc that are the type of things Prescott did not see in the preseason. The Giants offense can take advantage of a Cowboys defense that is missing some starters early this season due to suspension. With head coach McAdoo (former Packers OC), a Giants offense that ranked in the top ten of the league last season is likely to make strides again this season as they've added even more firepower. The defense also looks improved after a big spend in free agency and the Cowboys have only covered 3 of their last 14 games. Also, Dallas has long been known for struggling in their home stadium and they are actually and ugly 1-7 ATS in home openers! These teams are bitter rivals and the Giants have lost to the Cowboys in a season opener 3 of the last 4 years and now it is payback time as NY has the big edges in this season opener. Let's also not forget we're fading a Dallas team here that won only 4 games last season and that has struggled so badly when Romo is not under center. More of the same here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-11-16 | Browns v. Eagles -3 | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
Early Shocker - Rickenbach NFL Game #458 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET Sunday - After being favored by 7, the Eagles are now down to as a low as a 3 point favorite as of Saturday evening. This is simply an insane line drop and one I will gladly take advantage of. Carson Wentz is not a typical rookie. The Eagles first rookie QB to start the first game of a season since 1939 ran a pro-style offense in college. Additionally, the guy is wise beyond his years and is an extremely intelligent player. He has grasped the Eagles offense much quicker than even the most ardent Wentz supporters could have expected. Not only that but let's not forget this is still an Eagles team that has averaged 9 wins per season the last three years. They're AT HOME and hosting a Browns team that has not won more than 5 games in ANY of the last 8 seasons. It is going to be a phenomenal atmosphere at The Linc in Philly as the fans are thrilled to see Bradford gone and welcome in the Wentz era. The Browns are 14-50 SU in road games the last 8 seasons and this is a very small number in this one after the line move so a Browns loss is very likely to lead to an Eagles cover! Keep in mind that Cleveland will be without WR Josh Gordon for the first 4 games of this season (suspension). The Browns have lost 11 straight season openers by an average margin of a dozen points per defeat. Cleveland enters the new season having lost 10 of its past 11 regular season games and the Eagles have won their season opener in 4 of the last 5 years. I am calling this one a shocker because seemingly everyone has bought into Cleveland since the opening line came out and then AGAIN after the Bradford trade. You know what normally happens in the NFL when the masses are lining up on one side! Give me the Eagles. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-10-16 | North Carolina -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 48-23 | Win | 101 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #373 - Non-Conf Game of the Year - 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET Saturday - North Carolina put up quite a battle at Georgia last week but, after leading 24-14, the Tar Heels then allowed the final 19 points of the game to the Bulldogs. I had Georgia last week and was not surprised by the end result. However, what did surprise me is that, even though Heels starting QB Trubisky struggled some, the Tar Heels truly battled hard against a quality opponent and they now take a big step down in class as they face Illinois. Of course the Illini are now led by head coach Lovie Smith who had spent many years in the NFL. While I have plenty of respect for Mr. Smith it is going to take awhile for him to build this team in the way he wants. Illinois is off of an impressive win in Week 1 but that came against an over-matched Murray State team. Also, the Illini certainly were also helped by a turnover factor of 3-0 in favor of Illinois. The line on this Week 2 game opened up at a 10. Of course the betting markets see a road fave of double digits that ended up blowing their game at Georgia and they see an Illinois team off of a 52-3 win and now a home dog and we all see what then happens to this line. As of Friday afternoon it is down to a 7.5 and though I'd like to have a 7 here it is "go time" for me with this one. While the Illini may be feeling a little too good about themselves after last week's dominating win the Tar Heels come into this game very hungry for a win and they only have James Madison on deck. They blasted Illinois 48-14 last season but coach Larry Fedora has his troops ready for this one and certainly has warned his team that this will be a different Illini team with Lovie Smith at the helm. The problem for Lovie is he returns only 9 starters from last year's team and they are projected to be among the bottom feeders in the Big Ten while the Tar Heels are expected to finish near the top of the ACC. The Illini only returned one starter from their back seven on defense this season and they're trying to stop a UNC offense that ranked 2nd in the ACC and 18th in the nation last year with 487 yards per game. As you can see, this should prove to be a road rout! 10* North Carolina -7.5 Saturday evening |
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09-10-16 | Northern Illinois +15 v. South Florida | 17-48 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #337 - Contrarian Cashout - 8* Northern Illinois Huskies +15.5 @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET Saturday - The Bulls have been a popular choice. this week. They are a solid team but to rise from a 12 to all the way about a two TD spread here is a little much. I am certainly well aware of the fact that the Huskies had a very late game at Wyoming last week for more reasons than one. Not only was the game time pushed back by bad weather in the area but also it ended up being a triple-overtime thriller. While certainly a game like this that ends (literally) the next morning can be impacting to a team, lets keep in mind a few key points here. One, the Huskies lost the game and are very focused on getting into the win column this week. Two, it is very early in the season (of course) and so this type of effort (while certainly a significant effort) is not going to leave a team totally spent in what will now be just their 2nd game of the season. The Huskies are hungry and they're focused and it also doesn't hurt that this is an evening game Saturday. Much better than had it been a Noon ET start (11 AM on UNI body clocks). Another positive factor here is that Northern Illinois was only an 8-5 team in the regular season last year but they did reach double digits in victories each of the FIVE prior seasons. Yes, they are "only" a MAC team but this is a team that is use to winning. Also, last year they did beat Toledo (a 10-2 team) and their losses to Boston College and Ohio State came by only a combined 10 points! South Florida played "only" an FCS team last week and also running back Marlon Mack is not 100%. Additionally, the Bulls are now the hunted and this is not a role they are use to being in. A lot of points being laid here for a USF team on a 6-14 ATS run as a home favorite. Note that the Huskies are on a 15-4 ATS run as an away dog. I'll grab the big points with a solid QB (Hare back from injury) leading the way in what should be a much closer game than odds makers are calling for. 8* Northern Illinois Saturday evening |
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09-10-16 | Wake Forest v. Duke -5 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #340 - Daytime Dominator - 8* Duke Blue Devils -5 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Both teams are off of season opening wins but while Wake Forest struggled against a Tulane team that has won 3 games or less in 4 of the last 5 years, Duke absolutely blew out their opponent. Granted it was an FCS shool but NC Central was no match for the Blue Devils and allows them to build up confidence heading into this match-up with the Demon Deacons. In last year's meeting Duke never trailed the entire way and they are now 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with 5 straight SU Blue Devils victories. Wake Forest used two quarterbacks in last week's game against Tulane and neither played well as evidenced by the Demon Deacons ending up with a yardage deficit of 280 to 175 versus the Green Wave. Duke did not fare well ATS as a home favorite last season but they had gone 12-3 as a home fave in the three prior seasons so, as you can see, they have generally fared very well in this role. The Demon Deacons are on an ugly 14-24 ATS run as a road dog. Also, Wake Forest's first road game the last 7 years has seen them lose every single not only straight-up but also ATS. 8* Duke Saturday afternoon. |
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09-05-16 | Ole Miss v. Florida State -5 | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #212 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 8 ET Monday - The Seminoles simply return too much talent in comparison with the Rebels. While Florida State returns nearly their entire offense from last season and much of a solid defensive unit as well, Ole Miss returns very little especially on the offensive side of the ball. Yes they have their ultra talented QB back and certainly have a huge experience edge at the QB position. However, the Rebels are essentially rebuilding their offense (other than the QB spot) and their rebuilding process on the offensive line is bad news when you're facing a Seminoles defense that has an extremely talented and veteran defensive line. Look for this to be a mismatch in the trenches and that should help lead the Noles to a solid win by a comfortable margin in this one. The Seminoles not only essentially have home field edge here with this "neutral site game" being played in Orlando, they also have the hunger factor working in their favor. Both of these teams went into their bowl games last year as a 7.5 point favorite. While the Rebels won theirs by 4 TDs the Noles lost theirs by 2 TDs. FSU has been anxious to get back on the field ever since and I expect the Seminoles to roll through the Rebels like a buzzsaw in this one. Though the Noles have a redshirt freshman QB he is ultra-talented and the Seminoles are also loaded at the other skill positions including phenomenal running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver Travis Rudolph. 8* FLORIDA STATE Monday night |
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09-03-16 | BYU v. Arizona +1.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #206 - Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Arizona Wildcats +2.5 vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 10:30 PM ET Saturday - Tremendous line move here as the Wildcats have gone all the way from being 2.5 point faves to being 2.5 point dogs in this match-up. I do understand what many are looking at here. BYU is a veteran team and has the much better defense in comparing numbers with that of Arizona. Also, the Cougars "veteran" team is defined by a lot of returning starters on the offensive side of the ball including a big, experienced offensive line. This is viewed as a mismatch going against the smallish defensive line of the Wildcats. However, here are the keys that combat all this. Speedy linemen have a way of shooting the gaps when facing bigger opposition and speed kills. Arizona's defensive line may surprise with how they perform in this game. Additionally, Rich Rodriguez is in his fifth year as the head coach at Arizona while Kalani Sitake is not only in his first year as BYU's head coach, it is the first year he's been a head coach anywhere. Additionally, being an independent means the Cougars don't have conference games to look forward to. What motivates a team like this is a game like exactly what they have on deck next week. Brigham Young has a huge revenge match-up in their "Holy War" battle at Utah. The Cougars were absolutely embarrassed in last year's 35-28 bowl loss to the Utes in which BYU was down 35-0 in the first quarter. They can't help but have their sights set on that upcoming big-game match-up next week especially since the Cougars have now lost five straight to Utah! Arizona will have the home field edge (though this game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium) and the Wildcats are a Pac 12 offensive juggernaut. The Cats averaged 37 points per game last season and BYU (already peeking ahead to the Utes revenge game) simply is not going to be able to keep up in this one. Look for Rodriguez to outcoach Sitake in the latter's head coaching debut. 10* ARIZONA late Saturday night |
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09-03-16 | North Carolina v. Georgia -3 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Georgia Bulldogs -3 vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 5:30 PM ET Saturday - Two quality teams in this match-up but considering the short line and the SEC vs ACC angle, there is great line value with a Bulldogs team that is also accustomed to playing in the Georgia Dome. This is truly not a "neutral site" game as the venue favors Georgia in a big way. The Bulldogs have a big edge on defense as North Carolina ranked much worse on yardage allowed than points allowed per game last season. In other words, the Tar Heels were fortunate and that defense now has to put up with the battering ram that is Nick Chubb and the powerful Bulldogs ground game. North Carolina got torched by teams with solid rushing attacks last season and this does not bode well for their opening game this season. The Bulldogs have a new head coach and he wants to get off of on the right foot. The Tar Heels have Fedora who is in his 5th year at North Carolina. Last year UNC lost their opener to South Carolina and they face a much tougher SEC opponent this time around. A big key here is that the Bulldogs are 29-7 SU and 25-10-1 in their last 36 games against ACC competition. The past two seasons Georgia went 7-3 ATS in non-conference action while North Carolina went 3-7 ATS in non-conference action. Two high-quality programs but SEC continues to hold the upper hand and the Tar Heels have lost 4 straight games (including 0-4 ATS) played on neutral sites. New Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart was the DC at Alabama the past 9 seasons and he played at Georgia for 4 years in the late 90's. It's a new era beginning post-Mark Richt and the Bulldogs led the SEC in pass defense last year and returned all the starters from their secondary. The Tar Heels have had some big offensive production highlight their reason campaigns but they don't have the defense to hang tough in this one. The Bulldogs have the superior defense. The Heels improved with defensive coordinator Gene Chizik last season but the way they fell off late in the season all the way through to their bowl game was quite alarming. Great line value on the more "settled" team here. 8* GEORGIA Saturday evening |
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09-03-16 | Western Michigan v. Northwestern -4.5 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #160 - High Noon Top Blowout - 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats -4.5 vs Western Michigan Broncos @ Noon ET Saturday - You can tell by the line movement on this game (downward) that many are looking at the Broncos as an underdog in this early Saturday match-up. I completely respect Western Michigan as a MAC team but that is the key to the equation surrounding my big play on Northwestern in this match-up. The Wildcats are a Big Ten team that went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their non-conference games last year. Note that the Broncos went just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS outside of the MAC last season. I am well aware of the fact that Western Michigan has gone bowling each of the last two years and has been a team on the rise in the MAC. However, the last time they played Northwestern they got rolled by a 3 TD margin and the Wildcats have won 8 of their last 9 home openers. With this line moving down there is even more value on Northwestern here as we laying a rather small number against a team from an inferior conference. Remember last year the Wildcats home opener featured an upset win over Stanford. Even though Western Michigan is no Stanford (in terms of motivation for a big win) there is no way that the Wildcats will overlook the Broncos as Northwestern has Illinois State on deck. That means there is definitely no lookahead factor here. The Wildcats were very strong on defense last year and return 6 starters from that D which gives them a huge edge in comparing the defensive capabilities of these two teams. Northwestern allowed only 16 points per game last year while Western Michigan allowed 28 points per game. Over the last 25 years the Broncos are 3-26 SU against Big Ten teams. Over this same period, the Wildcats are 12-5 SU against MAC teams. Big difference in terms of the level of competition and I feel this is a very reasonable line on the superior team whom also has the home field edge. Lay it. 10* NORTHWESTERN early Saturday. |
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09-03-16 | Georgia Tech v. Boston College +3 | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #154 - Breakfast Bash - 8* Boston College Eagles +3 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (game played in Ireland) @ 7:30 AM ET Saturday - One of the big advantages that the Yellow Jackets generally have over their opponents is that they don't have a lot of time to prep for the option. Of course that is not the case when it comes to this season opening game against Boston College. The Eagles have had plenty of time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Tech. On top of that, Boston College had one of the top defenses in the nation last year and the Eagles return 15 starters this season while the Yellow Jackets are returning only 11 starters. Boston College ranks a big edge when you compare these two defenses and also ranks an edge in terms of the all-important experience factor that is so critical especially early in the season. The Yellow Jackets have made it easy on themselves in recent years by not scheduling FBS opposition to open the season. That changes this year with not only facing an FBS school but facing one of the teams with the best defenses in the country (particularly against the run) and facing them in Ireland on top of all that! The last time the Jackets faced an FBS school to open up a season they were held to just 17 points. The Eagles allowed only 15 points per game last season. The Yellow Jackets allowed 26 points per game last season. The Boston College offense is sure to show some improvement and facing a defense that is only returning 5 starters from last season certainly helps in that regard. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE early Saturday morning. |
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09-02-16 | Colorado State v. Colorado -8 | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #150 - ESPN Game of the Week - 8* Colorado Buffaloes -8 vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET Friday - In a rivalry game it is often enticing to grab the points with the underdog. In fact, the dog in this series is 13-6-1 ATS. However, prior to last year's OT win for the Buffaloes, 5 of the 7 prior meetings had been decided by a margin of at least 14 points. I expect another lopsided win in this year's match-up between these fierce rivals as Colorado simply has a huge edge in experience and the Rams have major concerns on defense. While the Buffs return 18 starters from last year, Colorado State only returns 10 starters. Particularly concerning for the Rams is that they lost their defensive coordinator from last year and they also lost all the starters from the defensive line and some of their best players in the secondary as well. CSU is likely to struggle in the trenches early this season and also will be susceptible to blown coverages downfield. In other words, the Rams are in trouble as they are unlikely to stop either the run game or the passing attack of a Pac 12 Buffaloes team that went 3-1 in non-conference action last season and averaged 38 points per game. Colorado is very experienced on the defensive side of the ball and coordinator Jim Leavitt is now in his 2nd season with the program and he has more experienced personnel to work with this season. Leavitt's blitz packages and the "stunts" will keep the Rams offense from getting comfortable in this one. This game is being played in Denver where the Buffaloes have won 6 of the last 8 with an average margin of victory of 13 points. Look for the Rams to drop to 1-4 ATS a neutral field underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* COLORADO Friday |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 239 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Denver Broncos +6 vs Carolina @ 6:30 ET Sunday February, 7th - This line has gone all the way from an opener of a 4 all the way up to a 6 as of a week and a half before the game. I could wait longer but truly would be shocked if this goes all the way up to a 7. That's why I am pulling the trigger now that we're seeing solid +6 available. At least we've achieved one key number (6) and, as noted above, I really don't see this getting all the way to a 7. However, it certainly is apparent that the whole world is enthralled with Carolina after the beatdown they put on Arizona in the NFC Championship. This is giving some exceptional line value to Denver in the Super Bowl. Denver beat a very experienced Patriots team to get here. In and of itself, that says a lot about these Broncos. I feel that all the tight games Denver has been involved in this season are going to carry a ton of weight in this Super Bowl. Carolina's win over the Cardinals in the NFC Championship was honestly almost "too easy" and let's not forget they were also afforded a rather easy win in the divisional round. That's because the Panthers took advantage of a Seahawks team that didn't even belong there. Honestly, Seattle never should have got past the Vikings the week before as that missed Minnesota field goal will live on in infamy. All this said, I feel that battle-tested Denver is where the value is in the Super Bowl match-up. The Broncos have the Super Bowl experience edge with Gary Kubiak over Ron Rivera. Kubiak has a big edge in terms of player experience and in terms of assistant coaching experience in the Super Bowl in comparison with Rivera. Denver is now 14-4 on the season with only two losses by more than 3 points. The Panthers 17-1 mark on the season certainly is exceptional but note that their last 3 games away from Carolina featured their one outright loss and the other two games were both victories BUT they came by just 3 points apiece. The Broncos aren't going to go way easily in this one, not after being thoroughly embarrassed in that 43 to 8 debacle in the Super Bowl two years ago. Denver and Peyton Manning are ready to make amends for that horrific effort. Grab the points for a *10* Top Play with the Broncos. |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals +3 v. Panthers | Top | 15-49 | Loss | -106 | 102 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +3 @ Carolina @ 6:40 ET - While I have a ton of respect for Carolina (and successfully rode them to victory over Seattle last week), I firmly believe there is a reason this line is so small. It's enticing for bettors to back a Panthers team at home that is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS as a host this season. However, the Panthers did show a lot of vulnerability when they almost blew their game against Seattle last week and, make no mistake about it, getting past the Seahawks was a major hurdle for Carolina. The Panthers, invariably, are likely to have trouble coming up with a second straight huge effort both physically and mentally after knocking off a Seattle team that had beaten them three straight times. When a team finally shakes free of a nemesis like Carolina did by knocking off the Hawks last week, they often have trouble in the next game. Last week's game was very taxing both mentally and physically for the Panthers. Now, by no means and I am saying the Cardinals had an "easy" win over the Packers last week but the Pack certainly are not a nemesis of the Cards and Arizona rolls into this week's game with plenty of confidence as they have had a fantastic season. Let's not forget that last season was very promising for the Cardinals before the injury situation at the QB position and it was Ryan Lindley under center in the playoff loss to the Panthers last season. Now it's Carson Palmer back under center for this rematch and, just as Carolina finally got by a nemesis last week, I look for the Cardinals to get their revenge in this rematch of a playoff game from early January last year. In games with a line between +3 and -3 the Cardinals have gone 13-3 ATS the past three seasons. As a road dog of 3 points or less the past three season Arizona has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS. As strong as the Panthers have been, they have been outgained in three straight games and it catches up with them here as they took advantage of some fortuitous circumstances in the win over the Seahawks. Seattle was fortunate to even make it to Carolina as they really should not have gotten past Minnesota (the 27 yard field goal miss in the final seconds will never be forgotten by Vikings fans). The Panthers certainly face a much tougher challenge this week as unlike the case when the Seahawks traveled to Carolina last week, this week the Cardinals come to town with a rest edge (played Saturday) and also off of a home playoff game rather than a road game and also the Panthers don't have the extra added edge of a bye week like they had before hosting the Hawks. Look for Arizona to avenge last year's playoff defeat by getting revenge with a healthy Carson Palmer leading the way at QB on Sunday night! |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -104 | 98 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play New England Patriots -3 @ Denver @ 3 ET - The Patriots are playing this game with revenge for two reasons. One is the ridiculous regular season loss this past season where the Pats were up 21-7 late in the 3rd quarter and then muffed a punt and went on to lose in overtime by a 30-24 score. The other reason for "playoff revenge" is that the Pats lost at Denver two years ago in the post-season. New England got some measure of revenge by winning huge in a regular season match-up in November of 2014 but the loss this past November (couple with this being their first playoff meeting since the January of 2014 loss) makes this revenge angle a huge one here. The Patriots are a fantastic 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) when playing with revenge the past three seasons combined. By the way, this is not a short-term success story for the Patriots either. The long-term numbers show a 57-34 ATS mark when playing with revenge. The Pats also are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and I'll take the current Tom Brady over the current Peyton Manning any day of the week. Manning certainly did not impress in last week's win over the injury-plagued Steelers and now he takes on a Patriots team that has gotten much healthier in recent weeks and the offense has what it takes (especially when healthy) to cause problems for the Denver defense. The Broncos have not covered a game since December 6th when they won big at San Diego. Look for this game to make it 6 straight games for Denver without a cover as I look for the Patriots to dominate this game on their way to another Super Bowl appearance. |
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01-17-16 | Steelers +7 v. Broncos | Top | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 100 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +7 @ Denver @ 4:40 ET Sunday - Of course there are some injury concerns here with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown of the Steelers but I just can't imagine Big Ben not being able to go in this game. Even if Brown is held out the Steelers still have plenty of weapons. Pittsburgh's offense really carved up the Broncos in their recent late season match-up and they can do it again here. Plus, think about his, why is Pittsburgh now +7 when they were -7 at home against the Broncos! Is home field really that huge? Of course it's not. Even though Manning is back for Denver he's been nowhere near the guy he once was. Why else was Osweiler playing? The fact is that this Broncos offense has had issues throughout this season and certainly padded their record with some fortunate wins. Now certainly my hat is off to the Broncos defense as they have been rock solid but the Steelers offense ranks among the most dynamic in the league and no offense was stronger than Pittsburgh in the latter half of the season as the Steelers were simply blowing defenses up. I think the Steelers defense comes into this game ready to roll again and already having knowledge of the Big Ben and Antonio situation. That said, the collapse we saw from the Pittsburgh D after Ben went down in the Cincy game won't be repeated here. Look for the Steelers D to give another stellar effort here but this time for the full sixty. With that said, there is certainly tremendous value being offered here with the big points. Pittsburgh is 12-4 ATS against teams with a winning record the past three seasons. Also, the Steelers are 6-3 ATS this season in games played on grass. Denver has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 playoff games and Manning is not what he once was and I certainly wouldn't trust Osweiler in this spot. That said, I'll gladly grab the big points here. |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers -2.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 11 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs Seattle @ 1:05 ET Sunday - This play from me is certainly not "out of spite" as I did easily win my pick on Minnesota plus the points against Seattle on Sunday; but, have you ever seen a team get as lucky as Seattle did in that game? The point is that the Seahawks were truly outplayed for most of that game and yet they still got the win over the Vikings thanks to a missed "chip shot" field goal with under a minute to go. The point is that Seattle truly doesn't belong here and they now face a much tougher situation than they did last week at Minnesota. Yes, I know that this is a revenge game for the Hawks because they had a home loss to the Panthers earlier this season. However, Carolina is no Minnesota and I don't like what I am seeing from this Seattle offense right now. You can bet the Panthers intense defense (especially on their home turf) is going to give Russell Wilson and Company all sorts of trouble in this one. Of course let's not forget that Carolina went 8-0 at home this season. They covered 6 of those 8 home games and the fact this line dropped from a -3 to a -2.5 is also giving us good odds on the Panthers covering this one should they keep that perfect SU home record intact. The Seahawks are 3-6 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points the past three seasons. Also, one could certainly argue that the Panthers revenge angle here is bigger than that of the Seahawks. Yes, Carolina did win at Seattle earlier this season but last year, despite a yardage edge for the game, the Panthers lost a playoff game at Seattle. Also, Carolina has lost each of their last two home games against Seattle. In other words, it's payback time and the set up here for a rested Panthers team against a Seahawks team off of tight, physical, fortunate victory in brutal cold last week absolutely favors Carolina in a huge way here. |
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01-16-16 | Packers +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 80 h 26 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +7 @ Arizona @ 8:15 ET Saturday - On paper, the Cardinals should be able to crush the Packers and, in fact, that is just what they did when these teams met in Arizona just a few weeks ago and the Cards annihilated Green Bay. However, let's not forget that the Packers were in a very flat spot there. They were off of a key road win on the West Coast the week before as the Pack knocked off the Raiders in Oakland. Also, it was a true 'sandwich spot' in addition to being a flat spot as the Packers had a huge game on deck with Minnesota. Green Bay was, of course, battling the Vikings for the top spot in the NFC North Division. The Packers also had some key injury issues when they traveled to Arizona. With all that said, the only thing the 38-8 beating does (in my mind) is mean that this is a huge revenge game for a very talented Green Bay team that got their offense back on track in their big win at Washington last week AND that possesses a very talented, solid defense. Green Bay has been particularly strong against the pass this season and that is a key to slowing down Arizona. The Packers ugly loss at Arizona a few weeks ago had a lot to do with turnovers moreso than just domination in all facets of the game. In other words, and especially with team leader QB Aaron Rodgers back on track, the Packers can (and should) absolutely hang tough in this rematch. The Cardinals ugly season-ending loss to Seattle certainly has left a little doubt in their minds about just how good they really are and they also could be looking ahead to a potential rematch with their hated division rival as the Seahawks visit Carolina Sunday. If the Cards underestimate the Packers (and they just might) I would not be surprised to see GB win this outright but, even if the Cardinals don't underestimate the Pack, this is a game that should be very close all the way through. So there is excellent value with the big points here and Arizona only went 1-4 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Packers went 6-3 SU and ATS in road games this season also a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS this season when playing with revenge. |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* New England Patriots -5 vs Kansas City @ 4:35 ET Saturday - Revenge game for the Patriots after they were embarrassed last season in a Monday Night Football drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs 41-14 on September 29th of last year. The Pats have a big rest edge here as they were able to rest last week while the Chiefs were on the road putting a beating on the Texans in Houston. That shutout win for Kansas City actually doesn't bode well for what to expect from the Chiefs this week. Teams that are off of shutout win in the playoffs (rare) have gone 1-4 both SU and ATS in the only five occurrences the past twenty years. Hats off to the Chiefs for a big win last week but the key was the five Houston turnovers. Now Kansas City goes from facing Brian 'Turnover Machine' Hoyer at QB to Tom 'Hall of Famer' Brady. The fact is that this will prove to be a tough match-up for a Chiefs team whose recent road challenges have included bad teams and or bad quarterbacks or a combination of both. The only exception was the win over the Broncos when Peyton Manning was clearly not himself and threw four picks on November 15th. The Chiefs other road 'tests' this season against playoff competition (other than Houston) were at Minnesota, at Cincinnati, and at Green Bay. The Chiefs lost all three games and failed to cover any of the three with an average margin of defeat of 10 points per game in those losses. Granted, those games did occur rather early in the season but you can see (and understand) why I expect the Chiefs to struggle against a rested Patriots team that has extra fire in their belly headed into this one. The Pats are still fired up about a poor overall finish to the regular season and they certainly haven't forgotten the embarrassing loss at KC on national TV that occurred early in the 2014 season. The rest for the Pats last week gave them extra time to heal up and they should win this game in an absolute blowout. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9 points the past three seasons and they also have a long-term futility mark of 2-10 ATS in playoff games! The Patriots are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the Pats are on an overall 17-7 ATS run in home games. No mercy from Belichick's group after that MNF beatdown a year and a half ago. |
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01-10-16 | Seahawks v. Vikings +5 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 90 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Minnesota Vikings +5 vs Seattle @ 1:05 ET - Brutal cold in Minnesota is going to help limit the production of what has been a red hot Seahawks offense. The Vikings have revenge here from a beatdown they took at home against Seattle five weeks ago. In that game Minnesota was outgained severely and ended up embarrassed on their home turf. You can bet that the Vikes are ready for redemption here. Let's not forget that in the Seahawks other games against teams with a winning record this season, Seattle only won 2 of the 6 games. The Vikings got a big boost with the return of some key personnel on the defensive side of the ball in Week 16 against the Giants. This helped the Vikings get big wins over the Giants and then the Packers in Week 17 to vault into ownership of the NFC North title. The Vikes allowed an average of just 14.3 points per game in their final three games of the season. Combining the solid defense (now healthy) of the Vikes with the NFL leading rusher (Peterson) leading the ground attack and a weather forecast of temperatures below 0 fahrenheit and you have the makings of a tough home dog to ouster out of the playoffs. I look for the Vikings to hang tough throughout this revenge grudge match. Look for Minnesota to improve to 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season. |
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01-09-16 | Steelers -2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs Cincinnati @ 8:15 ET - Cincinnati's Andy Dalton is doubtful. The Bengals are likely to be led by QB A.J. McCarron. Dalton was knocked out of the game against the Steelers on December 13th. The Bengals enter the post-season now having lost 2 of their last 4 games. Because of being forced to go with McCarron at QB the Cincy passing attack has averaged just 169 points per game in their last three games. The Bengals are hosting a Steelers team that has a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center. Note that the Steelers have thrown for at least 348 passing yards in five of their last seven games. That is more than double the passing yardage the Bengals have been averaging with McCarron under center. You can see why this is shaping up to be a mismatch! The Steelers are the healthier team and they are riding a wave of emotion after getting into the playoffs thanks to the Bills upset of the Jets in the final week of the regular season. This Steelers offense has been so hot that it is a team that no one wants to face right now, but particularly a division rival that is without their starting QB does not want to see this team to open up the playoffs. The Steelers are averaging 32 points per game in their last 8 games. The Benglas are averaging 21 points per game in their last 4 games. The Steelers have won 13 of their last 15 games at Cincinnati and are on an incredible long-term run of 19-6 ATS in games played at Cincy. Pittsburgh dominates the Bengals in their own house once again. |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3.5 | 30-0 | Loss | -113 | 69 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Houston Texans +3.5 vs Kansas City @ 4:35 ET - The Texans lost their season opener at home against Kansas City and now it is payback time for Houston. Though the Chiefs come into this game having won 10 straight games, it is important to note that they have not faced a single winning team in their last 7 games. Also, on the season, Kansas City went just 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. I have been very impressed with the Texans this season as, thanks in part to a phenomenal defense, Houston was able to have a solid winning season even though they used 4 different starting QBs during the year. The Texans had one of the top defenses in the league in the regular season and Houston also held their opponents to 10 points or less in nearly half their games this season! Even though both these teams come into this Wild Card match-up red hot, I like the fact that the Texans can be grabbed at +3.5 as a home dog. Houston has impressed me as they have not been outgained in any of their last 9 games except for one (New England). As for the Chiefs, they have actually been outgained in four of their last six games. In my opinion, Kansas City has definitely been winning some games with smoke and mirrors. Look for the Chiefs to lose their ninth straight playoff game! Kansas City hasn't won a playoff game since their 1993 playoff run. As for the Texans, they have won each of their home playoff games (2011 and 2012) and I look for them to do it again here as all the pressure is on Kansas City where they haven't been able to get off the schneid in the post-season and they have the better record and are favored here on the road. A lot of pressure on the Chiefs. |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | 20-13 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Green Bay Packers -3 vs Minnesota @ 8:30 ET - The Eagles play a big part in this play! Why? Read on please. The Vikings are off of a huge blowout win over the Giants last Sunday night. New York simply laid a FAT EGG after they watched the Eagles also lay a FAT EGG the night before. That's right, Saturday night's Eagles loss to the Redskins was so monumental and unexpected (and it ended the Giants post-season hopes) that it not only cost Eagles coach Chip Kelly his job, it also led to one of the most uninspired efforts you'll ever see from a football team when the Giants got shellacked by the Vikings last week. Minnesota also had the benefit of facing New York without the suspended Odell Beckham, Jr. The point of all this is that the Vikings 49-17 smashing of the Giants has helped to keep this number at a -3. The Packers played an awful game at Arizona last week and lost 38-8 but you know they will now respond at home with the division title on the line! In Green Bay's last two home games they have averaged over 203 rushing yards per game. The Packers ground game will quickly open things back up for QB Rodgers to get back on track through the air. The Vikings barely outgained the Bears in their deceiving 38 to 17 win that preceded facing the lifeless Giants. Let's not forget that, prior to that, the Vikes had lost 3 of their last 4 with the only win coming against a Falcons team that was in the midst of a 9-game winning streak. I'll take Packers QB Rodgers over the Vikings QB Bridgewater in a big game any day of the week. Grab the line value with the small home fave here. Play Green Bay -3 as an *8* selection Sunday. |
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01-03-16 | Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Oakland Raiders +7.5 @ Kansas City @ 4:25 ET - If you played defense alongside the Raiders Woodson and you knew this was the last game of his illustrious 18 year career would you want to let him down? Of course not! The Raiders have been playing solid defense for many weeks now. They got the OT win over San Diego last week and held the Chargers to 20 points. Prior to that win the Raiders had given up 310 yards or less in each of their 4 prior games. Oakland is playing hard for Woodson and that will continue Sunday at Kansas City as the Raiders also aim to get 8-8 and avoid a losing record on the season. While technically the Chiefs have something to play for here, Kansas City also knows the likelihood of San Diego going into to Denver and knocking off the Broncos is slim. That said, the focus here for the Chiefs may not be as pinpoint as one would think. I look for a bit of a lackluster effort from Kansas City here while Oakland certainly goes all out in this one. We also got some line value here because the Chiefs beat the Raiders by a 34-20 score last month in Oakland. The Raiders led that game 20-14 in the 4th quarter before they had the ultimate of meltdowns. That won't be repeated here and an outright win for an emotional Raiders team would not surprise. Certainly though the best value is with grabbing the generous points. Play Oakland +7.5 as a *10* Top Play selection Sunday. |
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01-02-16 | TCU +7 v. Oregon | Top | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play TCU Horned Frogs +7 vs Oregon @ 6:45 ET - Of course everyone by now has heard of the suspension of TCU starting QB Trevone Boykin due to his late night drunken antics here in San Antonio just a few nights before the bowl game. While this has resulted in an incredible line move in favor of Oregon, it has in turn opened up fantastic line value on the Horned Frogs. I look for Texas Christian University to rally around the fact that Boykin and WR Josh Doctson (injury) are out for this game. What the market is failing to adjust for properly here is the fact that the Frogs do have a senior QB back-up ready to go for this game. When Boykin was out for the game against the Sooners earlier this season, senior QB Bram Kohlhausen did not get the start because his father had just passed away. However, Kohlhausen did end up playing in relief in that game and very nearly rallied the Horned Frogs back for the comeback win over Oklahoma. Look for the Horned Frogs to rally around Kohlhausen in this game and everyone Horned Frog player is likely to step up their game and their intensity level as they respond to the Boykin suspension. The Horned Frogs have the much better defense in this match-up. TCU allowed 21 points or less in 7 of their 12 games this season. Conversely, the over-rated Ducks allowed at least 28 points in 10 of their 12 games this season. Oregon's D is allowing nearly 100 yards more and 10 points more than the Horned Frogs. That plus the site location favoring TCU and the ability to get a full TD now with a dangerous underdog has me siding with the Horned Frogs in a BIG way on Saturday. Don't be surprised if this turns into a huge upset win for TCU but I am certainly grabbing the generous points. |
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01-01-16 | Iowa v. Stanford -6 | Top | 16-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal -6 vs Iowa @ 5 ET - Iowa narrowly missed an undefeated season but they were so fortunate overall. The Hawkeyes regular season schedule was kind as they avoided the Buckeyes, Spartans, and Wolverines. This helped Iowa to enjoy a big season until they ran into Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship and the Spartans put an end to their unbeaten season. Not only did this end the Hawkeyes chances at gunning for the National Championship, it also exposed their weaknesses as Iowa was outgained by nearly 100 yards by the Spartans. Yes, that's the same Spartans team that lost 38-0 to Alabama yesterday. In other words, Iowa may have trouble remaining competitive in this game against the Cardinal. Stanford comes into this game with an 11-2 mark on the season and, unlike Iowa, the Cardinal are coming into this game off of a win. Stanford knocked off Notre Dame this season and USC (twice) including in the Pac 12 Title game which Stanford took over the Trojans in dominating fashion with a 41-22 win. The Hawkeyes just don't have the offense to keep up here. Stanford, after a disappointing 16-6 loss to open up their season, averaged 40 points per game the rest of the season and the Cardinal scored at least 30 points in every single game! By comparison, Iowa was held to 31 points or less in 8 of their 13 games and only once did they score more than 40. Keep in mind Stanford AVERAGED 40. The powerful Cardinal have edges across the board on offense and they also have the special teams edge and played the tougher schedule in comparison with Iowa. Combining all these factors with the Hawkeyes suffering "unbeaten letdown" with the loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Championship and you have the perfect spot for a blowout rout for Stanford who get the added benefit of playing this game in their home state. |
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01-01-16 | Notre Dame v. Ohio State -6 | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach BOWL *8* Ohio State Buckeyes -6 vs Notre Dame @ 1 ET - Ohio State certainly was disappointed that they were unable to make it to the playoffs. Notre Dame has only two losses on the year and those each came by a margin of just two points. That said, how can the Buckeyes by favored by nearly a TD here? Think about that for a minute...exactly! The reason is because Ohio State should roll here. Don't fall for the trap with this line. Ohio State already proved they would bounce back off of a disappointing situation when they blasted Michigan by 29 points after suffering the heart-breaking 3 point loss to Michigan State the prior week. The Buckeyes now will be out to prove that they did belong in the playoffs and so they will show no mercy against an over-matched Notre Dame team here. Keep in mind, all the Buckeyes wins this season came by at least 7 points. Even though the Fighting Irish have played well this season they did allow at least 24 points in 7 of their last 11 games. To put that in to perspective in terms of comparison with the Buckeyes, note that Ohio State allowed 17 points or less in 9 of their last 11 games. Of course a 24-17 Buckeyes final score gets the job done here but I am expecting an even bigger margin than that. Ohio State not only has the superior defense in this match-up, the Buckeyes also have averaged 40 points per bowl game under coach Urban Meyer. Combining his 3 bowls with Ohio State with his prior history, coach Meyer is 9-2 SU and ATS in bowl games. He also has 3 national titles! The Irish offense won't be able to do enough damage against this powerful Buckeyes defense to keep in this game. That turns this into an Ohio State rout! |
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12-31-15 | Michigan State v. Alabama -10 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide -10 vs Michigan State @ 8 ET - This is a traditional "trap line" game and that's why I am unloading on the Crimson Tide here. It is a match-up of 12-1 teams and therefore many feel that Alabama certainly should not be a double digit fave against such a strong Big Ten foe. This is especially true since this SEC powerhouse lost last year to Ohio State in the Bowls as an 8 point favorite! However, the reasons above are precisely the reason you want to back Alabama here. The line is fooling the general public. The Crimson Tide are seeking to atone for last year's Sugar Bowl loss to he Buckeyes that kept Alabama out of the national championship game. Let's also not forget that Michigan State beat Oregon even though they were outgained by over 100 yards. Also, the Spartans beat Ohio State and Michigan on last second plays as Michigan State never held the lead in either one of those games and yet one each on the final play. They also beat Iowa on a TD with less than 30 seconds left in the game. They have led a 'charmed life' to say the least so far this season and I expect Alabama to dominate here. The Crimson Tide have seen 11 of their 12 victories this season come by a margin of at least 13 points. Alabama has allowed an average of just 12 points per game in their 12 wins. As solid as Michigan State's defense is, the Spartans allowed at least 21 points in 8 of their first 9 games this season. Look for the powerful Crimson Tide to impose their will here. Look for Alabama head coach Nick Saban to make the most of his first ever match-up with his old school as he was the head coach at MSU for 5 years in the last 90's. Lay the points as Alabama does what it's been doing all season long. Dominate on defense and win the game by a double digit margin! |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Clemson Tigers +4 vs Oklahoma @ 4 ET - Certainly I have a lot of respect for Oklahoma but the Sooners have overachieved this season. OU was fortunate that their match-ups with Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State featured major issues for their opponents at the QB position. Certainly QB injuries in the Big 12 (but Sooners QB Baker Mayfield staying healthy) helped Oklahoma reach the top spot. As I stated above, I certainly do respect the Sooners but the point of all this above is that I do question them being a 4 point favorite over an undefeated Clemson team. The Tigers are 13-0 on the season but certainly are getting no respect here as they opened up as a 3 point dog and now this line is up to a solid 4 points on this game. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson gives the Tigers a dual threat option and is the better talent at the QB position (especially from a dual threat perspective) although Mayfield has thrived this season in the "Air Raid offense" installed by offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley. The Sooners are running into a very tough pass defense here and the Tigers defense, overall, allowed just 17 points per game before they let up some late in the season. That let-up was inevitable after they knocked off Florida State and then were a huge favorite in the rest of their regular season games until they ran into North Carolina in the ACC title game. Even though the Tigers only beat the Tar Heels by 8 they did outgain them by 226 yards in the game. To summarize, the potent Tigers just aren't being given the respect they deserve here and Clemson is highly motivated by virtue of being ranked #1 and yet being installed as an underdog here. They will play extremely hard with a chip on their shoulder throughout the game as the Tigers look to scratch and claw their way to the national championship game. |
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12-31-15 | Houston +7 v. Florida State | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach BOWL *8* Houston Cougars +7 vs Florida State @ Noon ET - The Seminoles will be the popular choice here as an ACC team while the Cougars come in from the less highly regarded AAC. The fact is that this venue and the situation both strongly favor Houston. Florida State can't be too excited about this match-up after last year playing in the Rose Bowl in a Playoff Semi-Final. After an ugly loss to the Ducks in that game, the Noles were hoping for a big push this season and giving themselves another shot at a national championship. With that scenario not working out for the 10-2 Seminoles, look for them to struggle to match the intensity and motivation edges that 12-1 Houston brings into this game. The Cougars have the big advantages in those categories as well as at the QB position. On the fast track in a dome setting, look for QB Greg Ward to have an absolutely monster game here. Houston averaged 40.6 points per game this season and they roll into this match-up with plenty of momentum after getting a big win in the AAC Championship Game. Florida State comes into this game with disappointment as they lost 2 of their last 5 ACC games and the Noles certainly had higher hopes than facing the Houston Cougars to end the season. Motivation goes a long way in a game like this and the Cougars have the potent offense to give the Seminoles all sorts of trouble in this one. |
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12-30-15 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. USC | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +3.5 vs USC @ 10:30 ET - The Trojans certainly have the eye-catching talent on the offensive side of the ball. However, defense wins football games and the Badgers had one of the best defensive units in the nation this season. I look for the Badgers to be up to the challenge of shutting down USC's offense. At the same time, USC has already begun cleaning house on the defensive side of the ball but getting rid of five defensive assistants right before a bowl game is unlikely to pay immediate dividends. Look for the Trojans defense to continue to show that it is in a state of flux and that will allow a mediocre Badgers offense to get plenty of points to support a prolific Wisconsin defense that should dominate once again. Keep in mind that USC seemed to struggled every time it was asked to step up against tougher competition this season. The Trojans lost to Stanford (twice!), Oregon, Notre Dame, and also to a mediocre Washington team. Other than the loss to the Huskies, the other four losses came by an average margin of 15 points per game. Conversely, the Badgers went 9-2 after the season-opening loss to Alabama and the two losses came by an average of just five points. Wiscy doesn't get blown out, the Trojans do, and that has me grabbing the available points here with a motivated underdog that is seeking it's 5th win in it's last 7 non-New Year's Day bowls. The Badgers will be ready here. Play Wisconsin +3.5 as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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12-30-15 | NC State +7 v. Mississippi State | 28-51 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rickenbach BOWL *8* NC State Wolfpack +7 vs Mississippi State @ 3:30 ET - The Bulldogs did not impress in the way the finished up the season and I like the motivated Wolfpack in this spot. Mississippi State lost two of their three final games and allowed an average of 40 points per game in those final three games. NC State also comes into this game having lost two of their last three games but they didn't come into the season with the same big aspirations that Mississippi State had. With that said, the Wolfpack are fired up about this opportunity to take on an SEC foe in the Belk Bowl in their home state. Look for NC State to make the most of it. The Wolfpack saw what happened to Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott when he faced a lot of pressure against Ole Miss in Mississippi State's season finale. That said, you can bet that NC State will have plenty of pressure dialed up for this match-up with Prescott and Company. The Bulldogs defense also took a blow late in the season as they lost two starters from their secondary including lockdown corner Will Redmond. Look for Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett (19 TDs against just 4 INTs) to take advantage. Even though NC State lost RB Matthew Dayes to a season ending injury in game 8 of the season, the Wolfpack still have a talented group of running backs fully capable of filling in. The powerful NC State running game will open things up for Brissett to take advantage with throws downfield and I look for the motivated Wolfpack to steal the upset here. If they do fall short it should be by a field goal or less. Play NC State +7 as an *8* selection Wednesday. |
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12-29-15 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 27-56 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5 vs LSU @ 9 ET - LSU entered the season as a title contender but they certainly fell well short of that with an 8-3 record. The Tigers certainly can't be too excited about playing in the Texas Bowl on December 29th when their aspirations heading into the season were certainly much higher than this. With that said, the motivated underdog Red Raiders are the play here. Texas Tech, similar to when they knocked off Arizona State in the 2013 Holiday Bowl, are very excited to be here. There is a strong possibility that the Red Raiders get another outright upset against a stronger foe once again in this bowl match-up. Texas Tech has such a potent offense with QB Patrick Mahomes leading the way that I just don't see LSU getting many defensive stops in this one. Certainly LSU will enjoy some offensive success against the Red Raiders D as the defense of Texas Tech is a weakness. However, RB Leonard Fournette truly finished up the season in disappointing fashion and I don't expect him to be at his best here after not even attending the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York. On the other side of the ball the Tigers defense faltered as the year went on and they're now facing a Red Raiders team that already knocked off a similar SEC team (Arkansas) in the regular season. Texas Tech is certainly going to give LSU all they can handle here and I will be surprised if the Tigers can even answer the Red Raiders score for score in this one. Grab the highly motivated, ultra dangerous underdog in this one. |
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12-29-15 | Nevada v. Colorado State -3 | 28-23 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach BOWL *8* Colorado State Rams -3 vs Nevada @ 7:30 ET - The Rams are looking to atone for last year's ugly 45-10 bowl loss against Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Colorado State comes into this bowl match-up on a big roll as they have won four straight games and the average margin of victory was 11 points per game. The Wolf Pack come into this game heading the opposite direction as they have lost each of their past two games and Nevada allowed 31 points in each. Colorado State has a good history with the Wolf Pack as the Rams have won 11 of the last 13 meetings. Also, Nevada has won just 1 of 8 bowl games in their history. Though both teams have powerful ground-based attacks I look for the Rams to prevail here. CSU averaged 258 rushing yards per game in their last 4 games and Nevada was out-gained on the ground by a 320 to 35 mark in their season finale against San Diego State. The Wolf Pack do want to avoid a losing season but the Rams are the hotter team and you can bet that head coach Bobo has his team fired up for his first bowl game as a head coach. Colorado State is very hungry here and has the intensity I like to see from a team heading into a bowl game. |
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12-29-15 | Air Force v. California -6.5 | 36-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach BOWL *8* California Golden Bears -6.5 vs Air Force @ 2 ET - I realize that, overall, Cal's defense was a weakness this season. However, they did defeat San Diego State 31 to 7 early this season and that is an Aztecs team that runs the ball very well. Air Force lost to that same San Diego State team in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by a 27-24 final. California's defense will stack the line with eight men in the box to slow down the option attack of Air Force. As for when the Golden Bears are on offense, look out! Cal is led by QB Jared Goff and he should enjoy phenomenal success picking apart the weak pass defense of Air Force. California just missed getting to a bowl last season and that gives them even more motivation to take care of business in the Armed Forces Bowl Tuesday. With the Golden Bears able to focus on shutting down the running attack of the Falcons, look for Cal's more balanced offensive attack to be the difference in this match-up as Air Force only averages about 12 pass attempts per game. The Falcons offense simply won't be able to keep up with a Cal offense that produced 41 points per game in their last 3 games of the season. |
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12-28-15 | Bengals +4 v. Broncos | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Cincinnati Bengals +4 @ Denver @ 8:30 ET - Both teams have back-up QBs in this one but I give the edge to McCarron over Osweiler. The Bengals QB was very solid in his first career start and it was on the road where McCarron helped Cincinnati jump all over the 49'ers early and amass a 21-0 lead. The Bengals beat Denver last season in a similar situation as it was a Week 16 Monday night football game in Cincinnati. Even though this game is on the road, the Bengals are 14-5-2 ATS as a road dog. Overall, Cincy comes into this game with an 11-2-1 ATS mark on the season and the Broncos have struggled with Osweiler at the controls. Denver barely snuck by Chicago by 2 points, then were extremely fortunate in their win over the Patriots in OT, and most recently have lost two straight games. The Bengals big road win at San Francisco last week is a huge confidence boost for the team in their first full game without Dalton at QB. In a battle for playoff positioning I see great line value with the Bengals now a dog of more than 3 points in this one. Fade the line move and ride the hotter team in this one. Denver has a tremendous defense but continued struggles on the other side of the ball will prove to be the downfall of the Broncos once again Monday night. |
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12-27-15 | Giants +7 v. Vikings | 17-49 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* New York Giants +7 @ Minnesota @ 8:30 ET - This is a contrarian play as most will look at last night's results and figure that the Giants will "lay down" here at Minnesota and get blasted on Sunday night. The fact is that, even though New York was eliminated from the post-season by last night's Redskins win over the Eagles, the Giants are a likely to put up quite a fight tonight. The Giants still have their sights set on finishing at .500 for the season by getting wins this week and next week. Additionally, this is a primetime game and that means all the players want to bring their best efforts to shine under the lights of nighttime football and the national TV cameras. Though the Giants will be without Odell Beckham (suspension), the G-men have plenty of other talented players at the skill positions that are excited about stepping up in this spot under the national spotlight. Also giving value to the Giants here is the fact that it will be bitterly cold in Minnesota tonight. In almost all situations where weather is a factor, it tends to favor the dog. If there is difficulty hanging onto the ball or gripping it properly it means that it is more difficult for the better team to dominate in a way they otherwise might. When it's below 20 degrees fahrenheit outside it can become more difficult to grip the ball properly for QBs and for their receivers to make the catches. The Giants have averaged nearly 30 points per game in their last 7 games while the Vikes, before last week's big win over Chicago, had been held to an average of just 15 points per game in their four prior games. The Giants are 6-2 ATS in games played on turf this season and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 December games. The Vikings have lost 2 of their last 3 home games and the two defeats came by at least 17 points apiece. The G-men are a dangerous dog here. Play the New York Giants plus the points as an *8* selection Sunday. |
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12-27-15 | Packers +5 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-38 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers +5 @ Arizona @ 4:25 ET - The world is likely to be lining up on the Cardinals here and this line could move up to the 6 point range on this game. However, in the interest of getting my plays out early on this Sunday morning I am releasing this play at +5. It is a great value to have a solid 10-4 Packers team plus significant points. Yes, the Cardinals have been fantastic this season but they will be challenged here by a Green Bay team that is the hungrier of the two teams. The Cards have already locked up the NFC West but the Packers are in a dogfight for the NFC North crown as they battle with the Vikings. Both the Pack and the Cardinals benefited from turnovers in their wins last week and the Cards big win over the Eagles looks much less impressive when you look at how the Eagles performed in their do or die game against the Redskins last night. A key factor that many may overlook here is that the Packers have played a tougher schedule than have the Cardinals this season. I feel this oversight is resulting in extra line value here for Green Bay. The Packers are 5-2 ATS in road games this season and already 3-0 ATS against the NFC West this season. The Cardinals are 2-4 ATS in home games this season and 0-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. As strong as the Cards offense is, their defense has allowed at least 300 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The Packers D has given up 252 passing yards or less in 6 straight games! Green Bay could spring the upset here and certainly there is significant value with the points. Play Green Bay plus the points as a *10* Top Play Sunday. |
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12-26-15 | Nebraska +6.5 v. UCLA | Top | 37-29 | Win | 104 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers +6.5 vs UCLA @ 9:15 ET Saturday - Why is an 8-4 team favored by less than a TD against a 5-7 team? Precisely! Don't be fooled by this line. It's actually a great value to be able to play the Huskers here with this line at more than field goal. Nebraska battled hard and suffered many tight losses this season. That is helping to create line value here as, based on playing a tough schedule and suffering some tight beats, this line is much higher than it should be. 5 of Nebraska's 7 losses this season came by 5 points or less. The Cornhuskers did not have a single loss by more than 10 points and the average margin of defeat in their 7 losses was 4.7 points per defeat! The Huskers did fall short against Iowa in their regular season finale but Nebraska outgained the Hawkeyes by a 433 to 250 margin. The Huskers also had the big upset of Michigan State this season and I can't see the Bruins being too excited about this game as they are still lamenting their loss by a 40-21 loss to USC that wrapped up their regular season. Remember that UCLA even had national title aspirations coming into this season. Now their bowl game is the day after Christmas. The Bruins aren't nearly as excited as the Cornhuskers are to be here. Play Nebraska +6.5 as a *10* Top Play Saturday. |
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12-26-15 | Southern Miss v. Washington -8 | 31-44 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach BOWL *8* Washington Huskies -8 vs Southern Miss @ 2:20 ET Saturday - Why is a 6-6 team favored by more than a TD against a 9-4 team? Precisely! Don't be fooled by this line. It's actually a great value to be able to play the Huskies here with this line in single digits. Southern Mississippi played an extremely weak schedule, one of the weakest in all of NCAA Division 1 football. The Golden Eagles will be exposed here by a solid Pac-12 team that played a very tough schedule this season. The Huskies are led by head coach Petersen who went 5-2 SU and ATS in his bowl games with Boise State. That said, after losing the Cactus Bowl last year in his first bowl game with the Huskies, Petersen and Company are fired up about getting a big win in their second bowl game! In addition to the huge edge here based on strength of schedule, the Huskies have the vastly superior defense in comparison with Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are led by head coach Monken and this is his first ever bowl game. The Huskies faced 10 bowl teams this season while Southern Miss faced only 5 and the Golden Eagles lost 4 of those 5 game with the average margin of defeat at 16 points per loss. Another double digit loss looms here! Play Washington -8 as an *8* selection Saturday. |
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12-24-15 | Cincinnati +3 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-42 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 vs San Diego State @ 8 ET Thursday - Both teams are missing their starting QB but the Bearcats are in much better shape with Hayden Moore at QB in comparison with San Diego State forced to go with Christian Chapman at QB. The Aztecs QB only had 38 pass attempts this season in comparison with 194 for Moore. The Bearcats have had trouble stopping the run this season but when that can be your focus (because you know you're facing a weak or injury-impacted offense) it does make a big difference. The Bearcats have good size on their defensive line and they won't just be run over by the Aztecs ground game. Look for Cincinnati to put 8 men in the box and to challenge a very inexperienced QB to try and beat them through the air. Cincy is a very talented team overall and, while their 7-5 record may not be overly impressive they did play a much tougher schedule than the 10-3 Aztecs. I also love fading the big line move here as it's moved by nearly a full TD. This is offering exceptional line value to an under-rated Cincinnati team that has a passing attack that is tough to stop and that is true even with Moore at the controls. San Diego State coach Long has a 2-7 bowl record while Bearcats coach Tuberville has a 7-5 record in bowls. Play Cincinnati plus the points as a *10* Top Play Thursday. |
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12-24-15 | Middle Tennessee State +4.5 v. Western Michigan | 31-45 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Rickenbach BOWL *8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +4.5 vs Western Michigan @ Noon ET Thursday - The MAC teams started off red hot in the bowls but may have shown their true colors yesterday as both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green got blasted in bowl action. That doesn't bode well for what can be expected from a Western Michigan team that came into the season with many not expecting the Broncos to reach a bowl. The defense of Western Michigan was expected to be the weakness and still is truly an area of concern entering this game. Though the Broncos come into this game off of a big season-ending win over Toledo, it did seem the Rockets (9-1 at the time) truly overlooked Western Michigan (6-5 at the time) in that game. Middle Tennessee State certainly is not going to overlook the Broncos as the Blue Raiders are excited to be in this bowl. They did not make a bowl last season despite being eligible and this has the Blue Raiders playing with some extra motivation and hunger in this game. Western Michigan was invited to a bowl last season and they lost to Air Force by two TDs as the Broncos have now lost all four bowl games they've been in the past ten seasons. Before Western Michigan's surprising season-ending win over Toledo they had lost two straight. Conversely, the Blue Raiders wrapped up their season with four straight wins (and averaging over 300 passing yards per game in the victories) and definitely come into this bowl game riding a huge wave of momentum. Play Middle Tennessee State plus the points as an *8* selection Thursday. |
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12-23-15 | Georgia Southern v. Bowling Green -7 | Top | 58-27 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Bowling Green -7 vs Georgia Southern @ 8 PM ET - The MAC enters the December 23rd action with a perfect 3-0 ATS mark so far in the bowls. Not only is the MAC rolling so far but the situation with GODADDY BOWL looks particularly strong as Bowling Green is only laying a TD and yet they are facing a team from the weaker SunBelt Conference. Georgia Southern certainly deserves credit for a solid regular season and they did amass an 8-4 ATS mark on the year. However, they faced a much weaker schedule than did the Falcons and Bowling Green went 9-3-1 ATS on the year. The Eagles run the triple option on offense and though that can be a difficult offense to defend against it does mean that pass defense is nearly completely taken out of the equation. Also, coming from the MAC, the Falcons certainly have faced plenty of tough running attacks and the extra time off before the bowl game helps Bowling Green to be fully prepared for what Georgia Southern's offense is going to throw at them. The Falcons had back to back strong performances on defense to wrap up the regular season and that also boosts their confidence for facing the Eagles attack. Conversely, Georgia Southern's defense got ripped for nearly 500 yards in their ugly 34-7 loss to Georgia State in their season finale. The Falcons potent offensive attack (561 yards per game!) will be too much for the Eagles to keep up with. Play Bowling Green -7 as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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12-23-15 | Boise State v. Northern Illinois +8.5 | 55-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rickenbach BOWL *8* Northern Illinois +8.5 vs Boise State @ 4:30 PM ET - Northern Illinois lost starting QB Drew Hare but 2nd stringer Ryan Graham has been practicing with the first team offense and looks ready to go for this game. MAC teams have performed very well so far this bowl season and I expect that to continue Wednesday. Can't see the Broncos as being too excited about this match-up. They were playing in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve last year. Now Boise State is in the Poinsettia Bowl two days before Christmas. Play the motivated dog here as the Huskies powerful ground game will make a big difference in this one. Look for MAC teams to improve to 4-0 ATS so far in this bowl season. Play Northern Illinois +8.5 as an *8* selection Wednesday. |
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12-22-15 | Toledo v. Temple -2.5 | Top | 32-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Temple Owls -2.5 vs Toledo @ 7 ET - Temple has the vastly superior defense in comparison with Toledo. The Owls only allowed 329.5 yards per game this season. Additionally, the Owls have been very strong against the pass with only 203.3 passing yards allowed per game. Besides the defensive edge for Temple in this one there is also a large coaching edge. That's because the Rockets former head coach, Campbell, took the job at ISU and that mean that the offensive coordinator, Candle, is taking over the head coaching reins for this bowl game. Not only is this his first ever bowl game, it actually is his first game as a head coach ever. This coaching situation is certainly going to be impacting to Toledo as is the way they wrapped up the season. The Rockets were in control of their own destiny but lost AT HOME to Western Michigan and that prevented Toledo from making it to the MAC Championship Game. The disappointment of that sour ending to the season coupled with the questionable coaching situation for this game is putting Toledo at a significant disadvantage entering this game. Temple is a veteran team that entered the season loaded with returning starters and with plenty of seniors on the roster. These guys want to end their college careers the right way and this Owls team has impressed me throughout this season and I look for them to go out on top here. Play Temple -2.5 as an *8* selection Tuesday. |
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12-21-15 | Lions +3 v. Saints | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Detroit Lions +3 @ New Orleans @ 8:30 PM ET - Good underdog line value here. The Lions fell flat last week at St Louis and fell short 21 to 14. Of course it was understandable that Detroit was a little "down" last week as they had lost their prior game in ridiculous fashion with a hail mary on the final play of the game. That long pass by the Packers gave the Lions a brutal divisional loss and left them very sapped of emotion heading into last week's game with the Rams. However, now off of the loss to St Louis, I look for a motivated Detroit group to respond on Monday night football. The Lions are catching the Saints off of a rare win so that certainly helps. Detroit is facing a Saints team that had lost four straight prior to last week's rare win and New Orleans has continued to have trouble on the defensive side of the football despite firing their defensive coordinator. Overall, the Saints continue to rank among the worst defenses in the league while the Lions have allowed an average of just 18.2 points per game in their last 5 games. The Lions have been solid against the pass this season and that will be a key in slowing down the New Orleans offense. At the same time, the Saints defense is unlikely to have any luck slowing down a Lions offense that was surging before last week's lackluster effort at St Louis. The Lions have some bad memories about key losses at the Superdome in years past and they want to erase those today with a strong performance. In a game with no playoff implications you look at motivation and current levels of play as key barometers. That said, the value here is with the underdog Lions. Play Detroit +3 as an *8* selection Monday. |
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12-21-15 | Western Kentucky -2.5 v. South Florida | 45-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Western Kentucky -2.5 vs South Florida @ 2:30 PM ET - The key here is that the Bulls offense is not going to be able to keep up with the Hilltoppers. I am well aware of the fact that South Florida scored a bunch of points in their last few games of the season. However, a lot of that scoring was helped by the fact that the Bulls benefited from 9 turnovers in the last 3 games. The South Florida offense did run the ball very well but their passing attack is not "dangerous" enough and I look for Western Kentucky to work hard to stop the running game and this will challenge the Bulls offense to try and beat them through the air. The Hilltoppers defense gets a bad rap but they actually held their last 5 opponents to just 22.4 points per game. Also, Western Kentucky held their last five foes to an average of only 296.4 yards per game. These guys can play some defense and they are highly motivated about playing their former coach who ditched them to take the South Florida coaching game and that was right before a bowl game in 2012. The program hasn't forgotten that he bolted before the bowl game (one in which they lost) and that adds some extra incentive here. The Hilltoppers are averaging 520 yards and 44 points per game and this potent offense led by the fantastic talent of QB Brandon Doughty will prove to be too much for the Bulls to keep up with here. Play Western Kentucky minus the short number as an *8* selection Monday. |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals v. Eagles +4 | Top | 40-17 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +4 vs Arizona @ 8:30 PM ET - Even though the Cardinals have been one of the best teams in the league this season and are currently one of the hottest teams in the league, there is a reason the line on tonight's game is so low. The Eagles are a very dangerous underdog in this spot. Philadelphia will be fired up for hosting this primetime game but truly has no pressure on them. Sure it would help the Eagles to win this game but their most important games are up ahead and against the Redskins and Giants. Philadelphia controls their own playoff destiny but they can get in even with losing today's game. Being able to play loose and being spurred on by the recent return of Sam Bradford means the Eagles are likely to have a big game tonight on their home turf. In home games where Bradford is under center, the Eagles have played well this season. The Cardinals are certainly due credit for how well they've played this season but the schedule has also been quite favorable. In match-ups against potential playoff teams (like the Eagles) Arizona lost to Pittsburgh, gave up 32 points to Seattle, and barely snuck by Cincinnati and Minnesota by a field goal margin each time. The point is that there is a lot of value with this line in the +4 range for the Eagles. In the 11 games that Bradford has played in this season, the Eagles have gone 6-5 and 3 of the 5 losses were by 3 points or less. That said, giving Philly +4 in each of their games with Bradford at QB this season and they would have a 9-2 ATS mark. Philadelphia's linebacking group is much healthier now then it has been earlier this season. They have played as well as they have all season in recent weeks. Yes the Eagles have been giving up some big yardage at times but they are known as a bend but don't break defense and the Eagles are flying high right now off of the back to back wins. The Cardinals do have some extra rest heading into this game but the Arizona injury report shows much more 'damage' than the Eagles injury report heading into this game. The healthy, hungry, and confident Eagles will 'play loose' tonight and I expect that to lead to a huge game for the offense that functions so well when it is running right and Bradford is the most comfortable he's been all season. Play Philadelphia plus the points as a *10* Top Play Sunday. |
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12-20-15 | Broncos v. Steelers -6 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs Denver @ 4:25 PM ET - Certainly Denver didn't necessarily "deserve" to lose to Oakland as the Broncos did outgain them by a 310-126 margin. However, the concern for the Broncos is simply that they don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the red hot Steelers in this game. Denver has been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The one game that Denver did eclipse 17 points was a bit of a fluke as they were down 21-7 to the Patriots in the FOURTH quarter of that game before the Pats essentially gave the game away. Now the struggling Broncos offense (still without Peyton Manning at QB) must try to keep up with a Steelers offense that has averaged 35 points per game in their last 5 games. Pittsburgh has not been held under 35 points in any of their last 5 games. The Steelers have won 4 of their last 5 games while the Broncos have split their last 6 games. Pittsburgh is on a 12-4 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Denver is on a 6-10 ATS run when they are off of a divisional game. While I certainly respect the Broncos defense, this is the toughest offense they have seen since facing the Patriots - a game they definitely should have lost. Sunday afternoon look for the Steelers potent offense to key this victory. Play Pittsburgh -6 as an *8* selection Sunday. |
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12-20-15 | Texans +2 v. Colts | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Houston Texans +2 @ Indianapolis @ 1 PM ET - Both of these teams are off of bad losses last week but the Texans faced an angry and ultra-talented Patriots team that was fired up off of back to back losses. The Colts would struggle to find an excuse for their abysmal performance against the Jaguars last week. Indianapolis got blasted by Jacksonville and has now lost their last two games by a combined score of 96 to 26. The Colts performance (or lack thereof) on defense has been very concerning of late. That makes this a touch match-up for Indianapolis as they face a Texans team that has one of the top defenses in the league and that has been performing particularly well in recent weeks. Houston has allowed 313 yards or less in 5 of their last 6 games! The Texans are seeking revenge from a 27-20 home loss to the Colts earlier this season and will take advantage of Andrew Luck's absence today. Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite. The Texans are 2-0 ATS this season (and 42-25 ATS long-term) when they enter a game on a losing streak of two games or more. Play Houston +2 as an *8* selection Sunday. |
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12-19-15 | Jets -3 v. Cowboys | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* New York Jets -3 @ Dallas @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys had a glimmer of hope of staying alive in the NFC East playoff race after the big Monday night win at Washington two weeks ago. However, even though they are still mathematically alive, the Cowboys have really hurt themselves with last week's loss at Green Bay. With all 3 of the other NFC East teams sitting at 6-7 on the season and Dallas a full two games back at 4-9 with just 3 games to go, the Cowboys know the handwriting is on the wall. Their playoff hopes are, for all intents and purposes, truly over. Dallas, after producing just 7 points on only 11 first downs and 270 yards at Green Bay last week, now has to host a Jets team playing with a ton of energy and emotion. The Jets have ripped off three straight wins to vault right into the AFC Wild Card race with a solid 8-5 record. This match-up Saturday is a classic case of two teams at the opposite end of the motivation/emotion scale and I look for the Jets to win this one in a road rout. The Jets have produced over 400 yards of offense in each of their last three games. The Cowboys have been held under 318 yards in each of their last three games. Look for Dallas to drop to 1-6 ATS in home games this season while the Jets improve to 9-2 ATS in December games the last three seasons combined. Play the New York Jets -3 as an *8* selection Saturday. |
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12-19-15 | Ohio +7.5 v. Appalachian State | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAF *8* Ohio University Bobcats +7.5 vs Appalachian State @ 5:30 PM ET - Though Ohio University has been dealing with injuries this season, the Bobcats have truly 'scratched and clawed' their way to a solid finish. Ohio U. ended up with an 8-4 record on the season thanks to three straight wins to end the season. This was a very impressive finish for a Bobcats team that was certainly impacted by injuries. Ohio University is highly motivated for this game as they feel disrespected by the line on this game. Appalachian State is a SunBelt Conference foe and, even with a 10-2 record on the season, the line on the Mountaineers here is truly over-inflated. The MAC may not be a power conference but it's stronger than the SunBelt. Additionally, the Bobcats beat a solid Northern Illinois team to wrap up the season. In addition to the motivation and 'strength of schedule' edges, Ohio U. also has the significantly better special teams units and a big coaching edge here with Solich having coached 6 bowl games with the Bobcats and 6 bowl games when he was with Nebraska. Mountaineers head coach Satterfield will be coaching his first ever bowl game. Appalachian State has a long-term 4-9 ATS record in non-conference games. Ohio U. is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. The motivated big dog is going to give Appalachian State all they can handle here and might even spring the outright upset. Play Ohio University +7.5 as an *8* selection Saturday. |
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12-17-15 | Bucs +3 v. Rams | 23-31 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 @ St Louis @ 8:25 ET Thursday - A lot of line movement toward the Rams here has opened up some nice line value for the Bucs here. St Louis is off of a win against the Lions on Sunday but the Rams had previously lost five straight games and three of those losses came by a margin of defeat of 24 points. That said, I see great line value with being able to get the Buccaneers at a full +3 in this game. Tampa Bay is off of a loss at New Orleans but had won three of their four prior games. The Bucs also are seeking revenge here for a home loss to the Rams last season. The Buccaneers have taken advantage when facing weaker competition this season as Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record. The Bucs are also 4-2 ATS in road games this season and, again, great value with getting the full field goal here. St Louis is 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS the last three seasons in games with a line in a range of -3 to +3. The Rams don't have a good history with Thursday games either as they are 1-5 ATS in these weekday affairs. The Bucs defense has struggled recently against the pass but the Rams have one of the worst passing attacks in the league so St Louis will be unable to take advantage. That said, Tampa Bay's recent run of success at stopping the run continues here and that should turn this one into a nice road win for the Bucs. Take the better offense, off of a loss, and playing with home loss revenge. Play Tampa Bay +3 as an *8* selection Thursday. |
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12-14-15 | Giants v. Dolphins +2 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Miami Dolphins +2 vs NY Giants @ 8:30 ET Monday - The Giants continue to find ways to lose games even when they have the late lead. This team just can't be trusted right now. Also, could Eli Manning's ankle be a bother to him tonight? You know the Dolphins defense tonight will be designed to pressure him early and often. As for the other side of the ball, much has been made of Ryan Tannehill's poor performance last week but he was off of a huge game against the Jets the week before. Also, the Giants are last in the league for sack percentage on defense. The inability of the Giants front line to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks has a lot to do with the secondary consistently getting burned as the Giants have the worst pass defense in the league. They were torched by the Jets last week and that's the same Jets team that Tannhehill just had a huge game against two weeks ago. The Giants only managed 14 first downs against the Jets. The Dolphins had 20 first downs in their game against the Jets. Miami is 3-1 straight-up and ATS in home games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The fact that a high-scoring game is expected here has mean going strong with the Dolphins. I feel their defense at home can be trusted much moreso than the Giants defense on the road to get the key stops necessary to win this game. The Giants defense has failed them so many times in the fourth quarter of games too. If you're looking for the Giants to bounce back just because they've lost three straight you may be disappointed. The Giants are 5-10 straight-up when they enter a game on a streak of two or more consecutive losses. Also, the Giants are 1-3 straight-up and ATS in their last 4 Monday night appearances. The Dolphins win over the Ravens last week was not pretty but it is a victory they can build off while the Giants sink further into their current state of a true meltdown. Play Miami as an *8* selection Monday night. |
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12-13-15 | Patriots -4.5 v. Texans | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play New England Patriots -4.5 @ Houston @ 8:30 ET - The Patriots should blast the Texans here. JJ Watt's injury is a significant concern as it's not just the broken hand, it's the groin injury that is effecting him. The Patriots lost to the Eagles last week for a RARE second straight loss but they ougained Philadelphia by nearly 200 yards in the game. The same blunders (including special teams) that impacted them last week are unlikely to occur again this week. Of course with Tom Brady we have a huge edge at the QB position with comparing these two teams and the Patriots are extremely hungry and have not lost three straight games since 2002. The Texans defense has been getting a lot of positive press but they truly are impacted by the Watt injury and the fact they got shredded throughout the first half of the game against the Bills last week is cause for concern. Some of their other big recent performances had a lot to do with facing weak opposition. Even with some of his weapons being hurt, Brady still has plenty of options to go to and he and coach Belichick can absolutely pick apart this Texans defense. Look for the Pats to improve upon a 54-34 ATS record when in the last four weeks of the regular season. Also, New England is 22-13 ATS against AFC South opposition. The Texans are in trouble as the Patriots are angry, focused, and ready to operate at precision under the primetime lights Sunday night. |
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12-13-15 | Cowboys v. Packers -5.5 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Green Bay Packers -5.5 vs Dallas @ 4:25 ET - The Packers were indeed fortunate in their win at Detroit in last week's action. However, a win like that can also do wonders for a team's momentum and this is especially true when that team is now at home and also now in a tie for first place in their division. Green Bay comes into this game with extra rest since they faced the Lions in a Thursday night game last week. Also, they catch Dallas on short rest as the Cowboys battled the Redskins in Washington last week. That huge Cowboys win was the first for Dallas without Romo under center this season. The Cowboys are still just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in games that Romo has not started at QB for Dallas this season. I look for the Cowboys to get blasted on the road here. Huge home field edge for Green Bay here and the big rest edge is just adding even more line value. This line has dropped on gameday morning and that is adding even more value to this play. Green Bay is 18-9-1 ATS as a home favorite facing a non-divisional foe. Dallas has been held to 20 points or less in 7 of their last 9 games. The Cowboys anemic offense is going to struggle to keep up with a Packers offense that has scored at least 27 points in 7 of their 12 games this season. Look for Dallas to drop to 2-7 ATS in games not started by Romo while Rodgers and Company, rejuvenated by last week's results, roll at home here and improve on a long-term 60-36 ATS mark in December games. |
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12-13-15 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bengals | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 @ Cincinnati @ 1 ET - Steelers seek revenge for home loss to Cincinnati earlier this season. Roethlisberger was rusty in that game as he had just returned from injury. There is certainly nothing rusty about the way the Pittsburgh QB has been playing now. The Steelers will build off of their absolutely dominating effort against the Colts on Sunday night by upsetting the Bengals on the road here. Going to grab the points but don't expect to need them. Steelers have been piling up yardage like crazy. The Bengals offense truly has not been as strong as some of their recent point totals would lead you to believe. Just take a look at the yardage stats for further evidence of that. Also, Cincinnati is 3-2 in their 5 games since facing the Steelers but they beat a 2-10 Browns team twice and a 4-8 St Louis team in the other game. The Bengals lost both of their games against tougher competition (Houston and Arizona) and Cincy now faces a red hot Steelers offense. Pittsburgh is on an 8-1 ATS run in December games. I don't see trend ending here. Pitt is fired up about finishing the season strong with Big Ben under center and healthy again. Key game for post-season aspirations of the Steelers and they get the job done here. |
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12-13-15 | Bills v. Eagles +1 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Philadelphia Eagles +1 vs Buffalo @ 1 ET - The Eagles were certainly fortunate in their huge upset win at New England last week. However, don't discount the fact that Philadelphia made plays when they had to on offense and certainly the defense and special teams made huge plays to be catalysts for the win. With that victory the Eagles are now tied for first place in the NFC East and that has done wonders for the locker room. What has also done wonders for the locker room in terms of adding motivation for this game Sunday is all the 'chalk board material' that Bills RB, and former Eagle, LeSean McCoy has been providing. The Eagles defense is fired up beyond belief for this game. At the same time, the offense is absolutely going to take advantage of a Bills defense that has been ravaged by injuries including losing some of their best players heading into this game. Buffalo is on a 13-24 ATS run as a road dog of 3 points or less. The Eagles are on a 17-11 ATS run against teams from the AFC East. Huge edge here with the line in a pick'em range, the Eagles at home, the Bills defense hurting, and with McCoy giving the Eagles plenty of motivation - not that they needed it, playoffs are in sight for Philly after last week's results. |
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12-07-15 | Cowboys +4 v. Redskins | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Dallas Cowboys +4 @ Washington @ 8:30 PM ET Monday - The Cowboys are again without Tony Romo but their loss to Carolina on Thanksgiving Day was deceiving. Turnovers were the key as Dallas did hold the Panthers to just 294 yards of offense in that game. In fact, the Cowboys have now held five of their last six opponents to 327 yards of offense or less. This has all come since the bye week and, even in their final game before the bye week Dallas held New England to 356 yards. I like having the dog here in a primetime affair where motivation will be high (not to mention the fact this game is huge for Dallas to get back into the NFC East race). Also, the Cowboys have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Redskins and the lone loss came by just three points. Dallas has averaged 147 rushing yards per game in their last three road games. I look for the rested Cowboys to establish the run early against the Skins defense and I look for yet another solid performance from the Dallas defense to key this road upset win. I am grabbing the points but expecting the outright win. The Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played on grass. The Redskins are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. The Skins have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last seven games. Washington has been held to 270 yards of offense or less in 4 of those 7 games. Look for the Redskins to again struggle in the role of a favorite. It's been an issue with Washington for a long time. |
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12-06-15 | Colts v. Steelers -7.5 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL *8* Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 vs Indianapolis @ 8:30 ET Sunday - The Steelers put up over 500 yards of offense on the road at Seattle last week. That's not an easy thing to do at the home of the "12th Man". What is also not an easy thing to do is to put up over 500 yards of offense and still lose the game. Needless to say, the Steelers are fired up here after the tough defeat on the road and Pittsburgh is known for dominating in these primetime games. Look for the Steelers to bounce back off of that tough loss as they have some good game planning in place to put a stop the Colts improbable recent run. Indy's QB, Hasselbeck, is now 4-0 as a starter on the season but certainly Indianapolis has taken advantage of facing some weaker opposition and that all comes to an end this week as they face the Steelers in Pittsburgh and in primetime action and in a situation where the opposing defense will have their ears pinned back. The Steelers D was not happy at all about all the missed tackles and poor tackling last week and they will be extremely fired up for a huge performance on national TV tonight. Pittsburgh has gone 7-1 ATS in the month of December the past two seasons. Also, the Steelers are on a 10-4 ATS run in games against team with a winning record. The Colts are on 9-14 ATS run as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. Just like last year's 17 point victory in their match-up with Indy, look for the Steelers to get another blowout win here. Play Pittsburgh minus the points as an *8* selection Sunday night. |
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12-06-15 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL *10* Top Play Oakland Raiders +3 vs Kansas City @ 4:05 ET Sunday - This is a classic contrarian play. With the Chiefs having won and covered 5 straight games why would they only be a 3 point favorite against an Oakland team that has a combined 12-31 record the last 3 seasons combined? Seriously...think about that for a moment...and the conclusion you come to is that, indeed, it does not make sense! That is precisely a key reason as to why Oakland is the play here. The reason the Chiefs are such a small favorite here is because they are off some big wins and they've also been very fortunate. The turnover margin is 14-0 in favor of the Chiefs in their last five games. Certainly some credit goes to Kansas City for achieving that margin but, make no mistake about it, the ball has been bouncing their way. Now the Chiefs face a hungry Raiders team that definitely has its sights set on moving into a 2nd place tie in the AFC West with Kansas City by getting a big home win today. Note that the Chiefs allowed over 400 yards to the Bills last week and that game was in Kansas City. The Chiefs were fortunate to get that win and now head west to face a Raiders aerial attack that has produced at least 282 passing yards in 5 of their last 6 games. Oakland has averaged 26 points per game in their last 6 games. The Raiders defense has been quite solid in recent games and allowed less than 250 yards at Tennessee last week. Oakland is 6-2 ATS against AFC teams this season and the Raiders are 5-2 ATS as an underdog. The Chiefs are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. Play Oakland +3 as a *10* Top Play Sunday. |
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12-05-15 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Iowa | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAF *10* Top Play Michigan State -3.5 vs Iowa @ 8:15 ET Saturday - The line may look 'off' to many but that's precisely why this is such a big play for me. Why is an undefeated and higher-ranked Iowa team the underdog in this match-up with an 11-1 Michigan State team? Precisely! It's exactly why I love the Spartans here and it doesn't take much investigation to uncover the key reasons for the 'head-scratching' line that was set on this game. The biggest key is strength of schedule. The Spartans played a much tougher schedule this season than did the Hawkeyes. The schedule worked out very favorably for Iowa this season as they were able to avoid all the power in the Big Ten East. The Hawkeyes did not play Michigan State, Ohio State, or Michigan this season. Note that the Spartans did play both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines and won both games. Though the Michigan win was certainly a fortunate win the fact is that just having played huge games against top tier teams in the conference like Michigan and Ohio State is giving a huge edge to Michigan State in this game in my opinion. The Hawkeyes are extremely fortunate they remained undefeated on the season as last week's game at Nebraska saw Iowa outgained by nearly 200 yards and the Cornhuskers doubled up the Hawkeyes in first downs! This is a huge game because, of course, the winner is heading for one of the top 4 playoff spots and Michigan State comes into this game with a full head of steam after following up their key win over Ohio State by steam-rolling Penn State last week! The Spartans late loss to Nebraska on November 7th actually helps them here as they no longer have the unbeaten pressure that still remains on Iowa. As shown recently, Michigan State is rolling ever since that defeat and the Hawkeyes are starting to show the effects of the unbeaten pressure as they were truly outplayed by Nebraska last week. This week it catches up with the Hawkeyes as they face their toughest test of the year and I don't see them having success against this fierce Spartans defense. Play Michigan State minus the points as a *10* Top Play Saturday. |
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12-05-15 | Air Force v. San Diego State -6.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAF *8* San Diego State -6.5 vs Air Force @ 7:30 ET Saturday - The big news for the Aztecs is the injury to their QB but with their powerful ground game and the size edge they have with their offensive line, I just don't see the undersized Falcons stopping the powerful rushing attack of San Diego State. The Aztecs have absolutely dominated in Mountain West Conference action with an 8-0 SU mark and a 7-1 ATS mark and the Falcons are off of a game where they allowed 377 rushing yards at New Mexico! Air Force now has to try and stop a San Diego State team that put up 320 rushing yards on Nevada last week. Also concerning for the Falcons is the fact they are facing one of the top defensive units in the nation. The Aztecs are allowing an average of 11.3 points per game in their last 8 games. San Diego State has not allowed more than 17 points in any of those 8 games. They also are the host of this Mountain West Championship game and the Aztecs have averaged nearly 34 points per game in their home games this season. This game has blowout written all over it as the Falcons triple option attack is something the Aztecs defense is built to stop. Play San Diego State minus the points an *8* selection Saturday. |
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