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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #333 Saturday - 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten Championship Game @ Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN @ 8 ET - Amazingly this is already the 4th time the Badgers have been in the Big Ten Championship Game and this is only the 6th such game as these started in 2011. The Nittany Lions are full of hunger as this is their first appearance ever in this game. The favorite has only gone 1-4 ATS in these games and I like the value here with the Nittany Lions (the better team in my opinion) getting a full field goal on a neutral field. Yes the Badgers have the better defense but Penn State certainly has the better offense and they are on fire and full of momentum right now. PSU has won 8 straight games and their offense has averaged 46.4 points per game in their last 5 games. The Badgers have won 6 straight games but their offense has been held to 23 points or less in 7 of their 12 games this season. The Nittany Lions defense has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 14 points or less - an average of 8.7 points per game in those 3 games. The big win over Ohio State earlier this season gives Penn State the confidence to take this game over the Badgers. Penn State's rushing defense has been very strong the last 5 games with an average of only 68.8 yards allowed per game! That should help force the Badgers to the air in this one and Wiscy's passing attack has averaged only 115.4 passing yards per game their last 5 games. Look for the Lions to win this one through the air as that aspect of the PSU offense has gotten stronger as the season has gone on. The Nittany Lions are averaging 284.4 passing yards per game their last 5 games. 10* Top Play PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS |
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12-03-16 | Arkansas State v. Texas State +24 | 36-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Situational Smash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #320 Saturday - 8* Texas State Bobcats (+) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7:30 ET - Nothing I can say about Texas State is going to help you to get excited about making a wager on a team that is 2-9 this season and has gone only 4-7 ATS. However, what I will tell you is that is there are some key situational edges working in their favor here. Of course it is the final home game of the careers for a number of Bobcats seniors including their QB. They are undoubtedly going to bring a strong effort tonight as they look to go out a winner. Of course the chances of an upset win are slim as you can tell by the number posted on this game but Texas State is getting some help from mother nature today. I reside in the south central Texas area and it has been raining heavily since yesterday and this is expected to be an all-weekend event with the rain. This weather is very likely to limit the Arkansas State offense and bad weather almost always favors a big underdog who is just trying to "hang around" in a game and I expect that to be the case here with the Bobcats. They are catching the Red Wolves in a flat spot. While it is true that Arkansas State can still get a share of the SBC Title with a win here, they would have had a shot at the outright conference title if they had just won last week at UL-Lafayette. That loss to the Ragin' Cajuns really let the air out of the sails of Arky State and they will likely be a little flat here. It's hard to get up for a game after the disappointment of blowing your shot at an outright title. Also, the home team has won and covered all 3 all-time meetings between these schools. The points are huge here when you consider that the Red Wolves are only averaging 26.2 points per game this season. This is not an offensive juggernaut, this is not good weather, and this is not a good situation for Arkansas State after last week's disappointment. Add it all up and you have the perfect spot (literally) for the ugly dog to get the job done here as the home team improves to 4-0 ATS all-time in this series. 8* TEXAS STATE Saturday evening |
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12-03-16 | Baylor +17.5 v. West Virginia | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #307 Saturday - 8* Baylor Bears (+) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ 3:30 ET - This is simply a case of a revenging team getting over-valued. This line was closer to just two touchdowns earlier this week but has now climbed up above the 17 mark as everyone looks for West Virginia to get revenge in a big way for last season's 62-38 loss at Baylor. While I certainly do expect the Mountaineers to get their revenge, I expect a strong effort from the Bears here as they look to finish the regular season on the right foot under interim head coach Jim Grobe who is a West Virginia native. He'll have his team ready to go here and what is being under-valued about Baylor is the fact that QB Zach Smith is off of a big game last week as he threw for nearly 400 yards with 3 TDs against just 1 pick. The West Virginia defense has honestly been atrocious in recent games. Looking at their last 4 games, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 506 yards per game even though two of those games were against the two worst offenses in the Big 12: Kansas and Iowa State. The point is that even if West Virginia does pile up big points in this game, their defense has shown no signs that would indicate that they are going to shut down a Bears offense that, even with Smith at QB, is plenty capable of moving the ball very well. It's been an ugly season for Baylor but the Bears are 8-3 SU and ATS in December games and Grobe and Company want this game badly. The Mountaineers are on a 6-11 ATS run in December games and also 6-11 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 8* BAYLOR BEARS Saturday afternoon |
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12-02-16 | Colorado +7.5 v. Washington | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
PAC-12 Championship Best Bet - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Friday - 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Washington Huskies @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA @ 9 ET - It is has been an amazing season for both of these teams but, since it wasn't expected for the Buffaloes and was expected for the Huskies, Colorado is clearly being under-rated in this match-up with Washington for the PAC-12 Championship. The Buffaloes are a TD+ underdog even though these teams are statistically very nearly equal and even though Colorado played arguably the tougher schedule. As the favorite, all the pressure is on the Huskies in this one and I expect the Buffaloes to be the more relaxed team and the result will be Colorado playing their "A game" in this one which certainly should be enough for at least the cover. Much has changed since the last time these two teams met but it is still noteworthy that the 15 point margin of victory for Washington also is help influencing market perception for this one and, keep in mind, the Huskies were actually outgained by the Buffaloes in that game! Washington is off of a big blowout win over rival Washington State in the battle for the Apple Cup last week. However, prior to that win the Huskies had failed to cover 6 of their last 9. The Buffaloes are off of a non-covering win versus Utah but previously had cover 10 of 11 games on the season. Also, Colorado is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog. Last but certainly not least, here is another stat you will like. This line is currently as high as an 8 in some spots and when the Huskies are favored by 8 points or more against a team with a winning record after Game 5 of a season, Washington has gone 0-12 ATS (including 0-2 ATS this season). The Huskies already suffered an ATS loss in this role against Utah this season and they also suffered a SU and ATS loss in this role against USC as well. They are in for a dogfight here with a fired up Buffaloes team that is a very confident punch and would love nothing more than to spoil any playoff hopes the Huskies had. 10* COLORADO BUFFALOES plus the big points on Friday night |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 107 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys bubble is about to burst and I am going to be along for the ride. Their long ATS streak (some miracle covers in there for sure) finally ended on Thanksgiving Day and now I expect their SU winning streak to end this Thursday. Certainly I will grab the available points with the Vikings but I fully expect the outright win. The Cowboys defense ranks 6th for points allowed but 20th for yardage allowed. Stating that differently, the Dallas defense has been lucky! No two ways about it the Cowboys weakness is their defense and the Boys were outgained by a 505-353 margin in last week's non-covering win over the Redskins. The Vikings defense ranks #3 for yardage and #2 for points this season. Minnesota's D is going to "bring it" on Thursday night after hearing all week about the Cowboys and how great of a team they are. The Vikes are relishing this opportunity to get after Dak Prescott and to also stuff Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys are one of the worst teams in the league at getting pressure on the quarterback and, when Sam Bradford is not pressured, the Vikings QB can run a decent offense for Minnesota. Certainly they can get the job done against an over-confident and porous Dallas D that is one of the worst in the league against the pass. The Vikes are on a 9-3 ATS run as a home dog and are fired up after the way they lost at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day with a late INT by Bradford in the wrong end of the field. It was an egregious error that he and the Vikes want to atone for here. Dallas is on a 1-6 ATS run in Thursday games. Minnesota is 11-3 ATS when off of a divisional game. The Vikings are also 12-4 ATS when they are a dog facing a team with a winning record. The Vikes are also 13-2 ATS as dogs of less than 6 points when facing a team that is off of a SU win. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA VIKINGS Thursday Night |
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11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles -4 | 27-13 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Monday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - The Packers are struggling badly with 4 straight losses as Green Bay has given up an average of 38.3 points per game. Traveling to face an Eagles team that is off of a road loss but is 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season isn't going to help matters for the Pack. Philadelphia has allowed a TOTAL of only 38 points in their 4 home games this season whereas Green Bay is allowing an AVERAGE of 38 points per game in their last 4 games. As you can see, this is a case of two teams that, though close in the standings, are truly in two different places right now. As an away dog, the Packers are on a 2-9 ATS run. As a non-divisional home favorite, the Eagles are on a 7-3 ATS run. Philadelphia also has revenge from a 53-20 loss at Green Bay two years ago. That was a turnover-fueled defeat as the Eagles were actually only outgained by 46 yards in that game. Green Bay comes into this game having not forced a single turnover in 3 of their last 4 games. Conversely, the Eagles are off of a rare game at Seattle where they did not force a turnover but they forced an average of 2 per game in their 4 prior games. Look for Philly to improve to 5-1 (SU and ATS) in Monday Night games as they take advantage of hosting a reeling Packers team whose defense has a yard per point average of only 12.9 which ranks them near the very bottom of the league. Eagles D is near the top with an 18.0 ypp. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Sunday Night Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - The Chiefs are not nearly as good as their record shows. In fact, I am kicking myself a bit for not playing against them last week but I felt so strongly about this fantastic situation that was coming up that I decided to hold off. But the fact is that, of the 32 NFL teams, the Chiefs rank a solid 5th for points allowed but 25th for yardage allowed. As you can see from those numbers, the Kansas City defense has been fortunate - to put it mildly! I expect the fade that started with last week's home loss to Tampa Bay (KC was outgained by nearly 100 yards) to continue through the remainder of this season. The Chiefs are taking on a Denver defense that ranks 5th in the league for yardage allowed and also the Broncos are well-rested as they are off of their bye week last week. To top it off - in terms of how strong this situation is - Denver also big-time revenge for the home loss to the Chiefs last November. The Broncos now will be facing Kansas City twice in a span of 5 weeks but they had to wait over a year to get this opportunity at revenge. The Broncos are known for dominating the Chiefs and had won 7 straight in the series (average margin of victory was 9 points) before last year's November home loss to Kansas City. The Broncos are 18-4 ATS when playing with at least 2 weeks of rest between games. The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS when they are off of an outright loss as a favorite and are then facing an opponent with revenge. That puts a 27-5 ATS (84%) mark in favor of the home fave in this one. The Broncos have been able to heal up over the bye week while the Chiefs have some significant injuries on both sides of the ball that are impacting them for this game. Look for a home rout in this one as the revenge angle is a big one here. 10* Top Play DENVER BRONCOS minus the points on Sunday night |
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11-27-16 | Panthers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #269 Sunday - 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) @ Oakland Raiders @ 4:25 ET - Tremendous line value here as the Panthers, though they did hang on for the win last Thursday against the Saints, blew a big lead. On the other side of this equation, you have the Raiders who rallied for a very fortunate win against the Texans on Monday night. So, not only does Carolina have extra rest in front of this game and Oakland is on short rest, you also have a situation where the perception is flawed here based upon the way the games involving these two teams played out in the latter stages last week. Playing the road team in Raiders games this season would have netted you a 9-1 (90%) record thusfar. The road team in Oakland games just continues to get the cash nearly every week. That factor also bodes well with the fact that Carolina has gone 16-8 ATS as a road dog in their last 24 games. Even though the Panthers offense didn't perform well last week their defense certainly continued it's recent resurgence and Carolina's defense ranks them a significant edge over the Raiders defense. Oakland's D is among the worst in the league while the Panthers have allowed just 326.5 yards per game in their last 4 games. After big games in back to back weeks (division rival Denver and then a MNF game versus a division-leading Texans team), the Raiders defense is likely to fall flat here after rising to the occasion in back to back weeks. A lot of points are expected here (per the odds makers) and Oakland is 1-10 ATS in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Also, a straight-up Carolina win is not needed here to get the cash but note that the Panthers are actually 9-0 SU when they are off of a win against a division rival. Also, in games 9 through 12 of a season, Oakland is 2-18 ATS when they are facing a non-divisional opponent who is off of a home game. That means we have combined factors of 37-3 (93%) working in favor of the road dog in this one. I'll take it. 10* Top Play CAROLINA PANTHERS plus the points Sunday afternoon |
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11-27-16 | 49ers +7.5 v. Dolphins | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Early Ugly Underdog - Rickenbach NFL Game #261 Sunday - 8* San Francisco 49'ers (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - Only the Browns have been worse than the 49'ers this season but I see significant line value in this spot in Week 12 given the situation. Miami has won 5 straight games and they are off of back to back wins on the West Coast at Los Angeles and San Diego. Now the Dolphins come all the way back east to return home for just a single game as they have a road trip to a tougher foe (Baltimore) on deck. I just can't see Miami being fully focused in this spot and note that each of their last 4 wins have come by 7 points or less. The Dolphins have averaged only 283.7 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and they'll have trouble getting much of a margin against a Niners team that has started to move the ball better as QB Colin Kaepernick has started to get in rhythm after the bye week. San Francisco's D is certainly still an issue but Miami's offense has not been impressive of late. The Dolphins are known for overlooking weaker opponents at this time of year as they have gone 2-8 ATS when facing teams with a losing record in the second half of a season. Miami is also 0-7 ATS as a non-conference home favorite of more than 4 points. Also, the Fish have gone 1-9 ATS when, in games 9 through 12 of a season, they have a winning record and are off of a SU win as an underdog and are now a home favorite. This truly is a classic flat spot. As for San Francisco, the 49'ers are 10-2 ATS as a non-divisional road dog of more than 3 points when they are off of a non-divisional game. Taking all of the above into consideration, that means we have combined systems of 34-5 (87%) ATS in favor of the Niners in this one. I'll take it. 8* SAN FRANCISCO plus the big points in early Sunday NFL action |
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11-26-16 | Utah +10 v. Colorado | Top | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
#1 CFB SIDE - Rickenbach CFB Game #193 Saturday - 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 7:30 ET - The Utes are off of a home upset loss versus Oregon but clearly got caught looking ahead to this game. Conversely, Colorado is actually off of a big win over Washington State last week as they continue to be a 'covering machine' this season. The Buffaloes also have been a 'covering machine' in this series as they are 5-0 ATS against the Utes. However, there are two keys with where the value lies in this match-up. All 5 of the meetings have been decided by 7 points or less AND Utah has been the straight-up winner in 4 of the 5 meetings. With that said, there is clearly value with the Utes as a double digit dog in this match-up. Colorado must win this game to secure a spot in the PAC-12 Championship game while the Utes clearly would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Utah is 8-3 ATS the past three seasons (including 2-0 ATS this season) as an underdog. Also, looking at long-term numbers, the Utes are an incredible 9-2 ATS when they are a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points! While it has been an incredible season for the Buffaloes, only 4 of their last 9 games have been wins by more than 10 points. Hence, you can see the value here with the double digit dog Utes whom, statistically, are certainly not far behind the Buffs. Also, Colorado is still only 5-13 ATS their last 18 games as a favorite against PAC-12 foes. The Utes are 6-0, 100% PERFECT ATS when they are off of a SU loss which was also an ATS loss and now facing a team that is off of a SU win that was also an ATS win. Look for that system to go to 7-0 in what is going to be a fiercely contested PAC-12 battle. 10* Top Play UTAH UTES plus the BIG points on Saturday evening |
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11-26-16 | Nevada +9.5 v. UNLV | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Underdog Shocker - Rickenbach CFB Game #179 Saturday - 8* Nevada Wolf Pack (+) @ UNLV Rebels @ 4 ET - The Rebels are down three starting wide receivers as they lost Devonte Boyd a few weeks ago. Of course that has made UNLV rather one-dimensional as they have to run the ball. Granted, that looks like a huge edge in this match-up because Nevada struggles to stop the run but, keep in mind, this is a big rivalry game and the Wolf Pack are likely to bring their best defensive effort of the season. That said, if Nevada is able to focus on the run that could make this a tough spot for the Rebels to get any kind of margin in this game. Another factor is that UNLV also struggles against the run and Nevada got their run game going with over 200 yards last week. The road team has won and covered each of the last 3 meetings in this rivalry series and that makes this a revenge spot for the Wolf Pack who lost at home to UNLV last year. Nevada has won 9 of the 11 meetings and this line is truly inflated on the Rebels as it has gone from less than a touchdown to very nearly a double digit spread as of early game day morning. I'll grab the corresponding line value with the revenging dog here. Nevada is on a 7-3 ATS run in November games. The Rebels have a long-term reputation for struggling as a favorite - 24-40 ATS! The Wolf Pack are off of an outright upset win as a TD underdog versus Utah State last week and the Pack has gone 5-0 ATS when they are on the road off of a SU win as an underdog. The Rebels are 0-5 SU the last 5 times they have hosted the Wolf Pack and, of course, if they don't win this game they don't cover and that means we're testing systems that are a combined 10-0, 100% ATS for this rivalry match-up. 8* NEVADA WOLF PACK plus the big points Saturday afternoon |
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11-26-16 | Illinois +17 v. Northwestern | 21-42 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #155 Saturday - 8* Illinois Illini (+) @ Northwestern Wildcats @ Noon ET - Of course the 2-9 Illini are not a very good football team. However, here you have a Wildcats team laying 17 points even though they are only averaging 24 points per game on the season. Also, Northwestern has been held to 24 points or less in 8 of their 12 games this season. While it is true that the Wildcats need this win for bowl eligibility, it is also true that Illinois is seeking revenge for a 24-14 loss to Northwestern last season. The Illini averaged 26 points per game in their first 6 games this season but they've faced 5 straight tough defenses since then and have struggled. Look for Illinois to now take advantage of facing a Wildcats defense that has shown some holes at times this season and only ranks 60th (out of 128) in the nation for yards allowed per game. This game will be much closer than many are expecting as the Illini give it their all in a game they know will be their season finale. Certainly Illinois would love nothing more than to also make sure it's rival Northwestern's season finale as well as the Illini could play spoiler and end the Wildcats bowl hopes. Illinois is 7-3 ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Northwestern is 1-3 ATS as a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. The Wildcats are also 2-6 ATS when off of an outright loss as a favorite and 2-14 ATS when they are a double digit home favorite and facing a team that is off of a SU loss by double digits. The above systems combine for a powerful 30-8 (79%) ATS mark which I'll gladly put to the test here. 8* ILLINOIS ILLINI plus the BIG points early at Noon ET Saturday |
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11-25-16 | Nebraska +2.5 v. Iowa | 10-40 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #121 Friday - 8* Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 3:30 ET - Though it would take a big upset (Minnesota over Wisconsin Saturday), the fact is that the Cornhuskers are still alive for having a shot at the Big Ten title game. That said, look for another big effort from the Huskers here after they dominated Minnesota last week. This week Nebraska gets a boost with the expected return of QB Tommy Armstrong too. We are getting line value here because of Iowa's win over Michigan a few weeks back. If you look at the rest of the Hawkeyes results this season they only went 2-3 in their other 5 home games. Overall, Iowa doesn't have any other wins against quality opponents and they even lost to North Dakota State and Northwestern this season. Now the Hawkeyes face a revenge-minded Nebraska team that has played a tougher schedule than Iowa has this season. The Huskers are looking to avenge last season's 28-20 home loss to the Hawkeyes. Iowa is off of back to back strong efforts on defense but prior to that they had allowed 508.7 yards per game in their 3 prior games! The D will be a difference-maker here because Nebraska has given up 337 yards or less in 6 of their last 7 games! The Cornhuskers are on an 8-3 ATS run as an underdog while Iowa is on a 7-13 ATS run in home games. The Big Red get their revenge here and stay alive for a shot at the Big Ten West division. 8* NEBRASKA plus the points Friday |
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11-24-16 | Steelers v. Colts +9 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
TNF Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #112 Thursday - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:30 ET - No one wants the Colts here and everyone is lining up on the Steelers because of the Andrew Luck situation at QB. Of course having Scott Tolzien at QB is a huge stepdown from having Luck under center but, as a contrarian, I love fading the line move in situations like this. The Colts are now very nearly a double digit home dog in this game and they are going to bring a huge effort as they try to rally around the absence of Luck tonight. So many times, in the first game without a star player, you will see the rest of the team step up and other individuals tend to play their best games of the year in situations like this. Look for the Colts to indeed "rally the troops" for this one and they certainly have plenty of motivation. Not only is this the Thanksgiving Day primetime game under the lights, the Colts were demolished at Pittsburgh each of the past two seasons so Indianapolis is very happy to have this game at home and have a shot at home revenge after getting embarrassed by the Steelers each of the past two seasons. Also, in Sunday's win over the Titans, the Colts defense hung tough (and their D has improved in recent games) and coupling that with the Texas loss to Oakland Monday Night and Indianapolis is rejuvenated by their current positioning in the AFC South. The Colts have a fantastic long-term history in Thursday games with a 13-1 SU mark and 11-1 ATS mark. Also, the Steelers are off of a divisional win (albeit against the lowly Browns) and Pittsburgh is only 3-6 SU and 1-5 ATS when off of a win over a divisional foe. The highly motivated Colts will be flying all over the field in this one and I see this game being a one-possession game all the way through which means huge value with the big points. 10* Top Play INDIANAPOLIS |
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11-24-16 | LSU -6.5 v. Texas A&M | 54-39 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Turkey Day CFB Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #113 Thursday - 8* LSU Tigers (-) @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:30 ET - The Aggies want this game badly as the Tigers have held the upper hand in this series ever since Texas A & M entered the SEC. However, this is not a good spot for the Aggies to finally "break through" against the Tigers because LSU is fired up off of a loss and interim head coach Orgeron has his team ready to go. The Tigers are fired up after the loss to Florida last week. Against the Gators, LSU was simply done in by a couple of turnovers because they did actually outgain Florida by over 150 yards in that game! The Tigers have a fantastic defense and that gives them a huge edge over the Aggies who are not the same team without Trevor Knight at QB. Now word is that Knight may start Thursday but how much of that is due to him being ready and how much is due to Jake Hubenak also injuring his shoulder in his most recent game? Keep that in mind because the Aggies are going up against a tremendous defense that will inflict some big hits in this game! Even though RB Leonard Fournette is out for LSU in this one, the Tigers still have plenty of firepower to get the job done against A & M in this one. The Tigers are off of their 4th loss of the season. After their first three they responded with a win all 3 times going 3-0 and winning the games by at least 21 points all 3 times. The Aggies are in an 0-7 ATS tailspin and the Tigers are on a 7-3 ATS run as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Texas A & M is also on a 4-12 ATS run in their games against teams with a winning record. LSU is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 in this series and the Aggies come in on that overall 0-7 ATS run so we have a 12-0 ATS advantage for the Tigers in this one! In each of the last 5 meetings with A & M, the Tigers were coming in off of an ATS loss and they have responded all 5 times with a win and cover. Thes situation is again set up perfectly here in this season's match-up. 8* LSU |
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11-24-16 | Redskins +7 v. Cowboys | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #109 Thursday - 8* Washington Redskins (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - The Cowboys amazing streak has continued but this is the perfect spot for it to end. The Dallas streak actually started all the way back in Week 2 of the season when they went into Washington and stole a win from the Redskins. Or, you could say, the Skins gave it to them. Either way, I haven't forgotten that game and the Redskins surely haven't either as they had the lead in the 4th quarter and had a 1st and goal situation and were getting ready to go up two scores and basically salt the game away. Instead, Washington QB Kirk Cousins made a rare mistake in a crucial spot and threw a pick in the end zone. That changed everything and the rest is now history. Now we get a case where we have a revenging dog getting a full TD against a Dallas team that has performed poorly on Thanksgiving Day each of the past two seasons. This is a great spot for a hungry Washington team as they seek to avenge that loss. The Redskins do a great job with their pass rush while the Cowboys don't be surprised if that ends up being a difference maker here. The Redskins have a road trip to Arizona on deck and that is significant in that this is the first of back to back road games for Washington and the Skins are 9-0 ATS when they are a dog of more than 3 points in the first of back to back road games. The Redskins are also 9-0 ATS when they are on the road and facing a divisional opponent that has a .666 or better winning percentage on the season. These systems combine for an 18-0, 100% ATS mark and I'll gladly grab the generous points here with the revenging road dog. 8* WASHINGTON |
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11-22-16 | Ball State v. Miami (OH) -7 | 20-21 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Tuesday Rivalry Rout - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Tuesday - 8* Miami, Ohio Redhawks (-) vs Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - Even though Ball State plays in the West Division of the MAC and Miami, Ohio is in the East Division, this is still a rivalry as these universities are separated by only 70 miles. In fact, for next season, these two rivals will resume playing every year under the MAC’s new “rivalry status” designation. This new ruling allows teams from the East to play a team from the West annually as rivals and certainly this is good to see as this rivalry gets going again. The Redhawks have revenge on their minds in this one as the most recent meeting saw them lose badly at Ball State in 2013 by a final score of 55-14. Revenge is certainly not the only motivating factor here either as Miami has their eyes on securing their 6th win for bowl eligibility. It would be a great accomplishment considering the Redhawks started the season 0-6 but have since rattled off 5 straight wins and gone 5-0 ATS in the process. While the Hawks are "up" for this game I look for Ball State to have a tough game here as first-year Cardinals coach Mike Neu is trying to "rally the troops" but their ugly loss at Toledo (37-19) last week ended their chances at bowl eligibility. The Cardinals defense is struggling and has allowed 534.6 yards per game in MAC games while the Redhawks D has been fantastic in conference action and allowed only 319.6 yards per game. Miami QB Gus Ragland has filled in as Billy Bahl tries to come from injury and Ragland has 12 TDs against 0 picks! In fact, turnovers are a key when looking at how this match-up is likely to play out tonight. The Redhawks have won the turnover battle by a combined 11-4 during their five game winning streak while the Cardinals have lost the turnover battle by a combined 15-5 in their last 6 games! Ball State is 1-8 ATS in November games the past 3 seasons combined while Miami is 8-2 ATS over that same period of time in their games against teams with a losing record. When on a winning streak of 2 games or more, the Redhawks have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS while the Cardinals are on an 0-4 ATS run in Tuesday games. In their 3rd year under coach Chuck Martin the Redhawks have finally hit their stride and they also have a big rest edge here as this is just their third game this month and they've been off since the 12th. The Cards just played on Wednesday and this will be their 4th game in 22 days this month. The Cardinals are ready for the season to end while the Redhawks are geared up to qualify for a bowl as, should they make one, it would be their first since the 2010 season. 8* MIAMI-OHIO Tuesday |
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11-21-16 | Texans +6 v. Raiders | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
MNF 100% Never Lost System Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 Monday - 8* Houston Texans (+) vs Oakland Raiders @ Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, MX @ 8:30 ET - The Raiders are off of a bye week but they had been rolling and, a lot of times, the last thing a team wants is a bye week when they are in a good rhythm like Oakland was. Here's the 'kicker' to this though: Raiders had covered each of their 3 games prior to the bye and the last 13+ seasons (dating all the way back to the start of the 2003 season) when Oakland enters a game on a 3-0 ATS run they have failed to cover their next game every single time. There have been 10 such occurrences and the Raiders are 0-10 ATS. The 2002 season was the year the Raiders made it to the Super Bowl (and, interestingly, also their most recent year in the post-season) and that was also the Texans first year in the NFL. With that said, once that inaugural Texans season went into the books with the Raiders losing in that year's Super Bowl, since that time, this system is a 10-0, 100% perfect ATS play against the Raiders. Certainly in looking at this match-up, Oakland has the better offense but there is also no argument that the Texans have the better defense. Houston has allowed an average of only 317.4 yards per game and that ranks them among the top teams in the NFL. The Texans offense has been able to get the ground game going of late as they have run for at least 140 yards in 3 of their last 4 games and that will make the Raiders D have to respect the run. Even though Houston QB Brock Osweiler is certainly one of the weaker QBs in the NFL, he'll have opportunities to attack downfield through the air against a Raiders pass defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league as they are allowing 283.2 passing yards per game this season. We're getting some significant points here with a solid defensive-minded team and I look for that aforementioned record for Oakland to drop to 0-11 ATS as they once again fail to get a 4th straight cover. A couple of more ATS notes here. This is essentially an away game for both teams since its being played in Mexico City and the Raiders are 1-9 ATS when they are away from home and off of back-to-back SU wins. Oakland is also 0-6 ATS in Monday Night games against non-divisional opponents. As for the Texans, with their win last week at Jacksonville, they are now 7-2 SU and ATS in their last 9 November games. 8* HOUSTON TEXANS Monday Night |
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11-20-16 | Packers +3 v. Redskins | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Sunday - 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - When a team has seemingly hit rock bottom and then gets a marquee match-up under the national TV primetime lights, it is often the best time to make a play on them. Not only are the Packers getting the Sunday night TV game this week but they've got the big Monday night TV game next week. That is noteworthy here because I love backing a team off of an embarrassing loss as a fave (GB lost 47-25 at Tenn LW) and the Packers are a perfect 8-0 ATS their last 8 before a MNF game. The Packers are also 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 against the Redskins and that includes a big 35-18 win in the Wild Card round of last season's playoffs. Certainly that makes this a revenge spot for Washington but the Redskins are catching an angry Packers team off of 3 straight losses. The last time that GB entered a game off of 3 straight losses they were at Minnesota last season and they crushed the Vikings 30 to 13. Washington may also get caught peeking ahead here. Yes, this is a revenge game so that would seem impossible but the fact is the Redskins have their most hated rival, the Cowboys, on deck in just a few days on Thanksgiving Day. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Washington has gone 1-12 ATS when they are a home favorite and off of a win (SU and ATS) in their prior game. Overall, the Redskins are also 1-6 ATS when in the 2nd of back to back home games. Combining all the ATS trends noted above we have a combined 34-3-1 (92%) ATS mark favoring the road dog in this one. I'll take it! 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS Sunday Night |
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11-20-16 | Eagles +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks are off of a huge revenging win at New England in the Sunday night game. Keep in mind that wasn't just "any revenge" either as it was Super Bowl revenge from the 2015 Super Bowl loss to the Patriots! Not only that but Seattle had to go coast to coast to get it. After that huge win and with another road trip to the East Coast on deck, this is a tough spot for the Seahawks. There is big value with the points as Seattle has only two wins by more than 7 points out of their 9 games this season. Also, the Eagles have not lost a game by more than 7 points this entire season. Philadelphia did, however, accomplish something last week that they haven't done all season and that is they won a game by single digits. That was a tight game and Philly got the win over a good Falcons team. The Eagles defense continues to be dominating as they've allowed 303 yards or less in 6 of their last 8 games! Statistically these teams are very nearly equal so Seattle should be about a field goal favorite at home but instead they're laying around a TD in this one and, given the situational disadvantages to the Seahawks, the big line is certainly not warranted. In other words, big value with the dog in this one. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Philadelphia has gone 12-2 ATS when they are on the road and playing with revenge against a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles lost to the Hawks in Philly in 2014. Philadelphia has also covered 14 in a row (14-0, 100% ATS!) as a road dog of more than 4 points when playing with revenge against an NFC opponent. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Seattle has gone 1-7 ATS when off of an outright win as a underdog and facing a non-divisional opponent. That means we have edges of 33-3 (92%) ATS favoring the Eagles in this spot which truly is an excellent situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Early Contrarian - Rickenbach NFL Game #463 Sunday - 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys have had an incredible run but now face arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Ravens also have extra rest as they last played on Thursday and that was a blowout win over the hapless Browns. Baltimore is on a 7-1 ATS run when off of a win over a division rival. The Ravens are also on a 7-1 ATS run when off of facing the Browns. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett has a 4-11 ATS mark as a home favorite when facing a team off of a SU win. Garrett also has a 2-7 ATS mark as a favorite of more than 3 points when facing a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are only 1-5 ATS when facing a team off of back to back SU and ATS wins. The combined ATS records above in favor of Baltimore in this match-up per the above: 37-9 (80%). The Ravens have won big and covered the past two weeks against the Steelers and Browns and they stay hot here to finally shut up "America's Team" in "Jerry's World" as the Cowboys get caught looking ahead to their Thanksgiving showdown with the division rival Redskins that is just days away. 8* BALTIMORE |
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11-20-16 | Bears +7 v. Giants | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Early Underdog Shocker - Rickenbach NFL Game #457 Sunday - 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Bears are off of an embarrassing 36 to 10 loss at Tampa Bay while the Giants are off of a tight Monday night win over the Bengals by just a single point. In other words, the set up is perfect here for the ugly dog! Chicago's John Fox is 10-2 ATS away from home when his team is off of a straight-up loss by double digits in a game in which they were favored. The Bears did defeat the Giants in Chicago in 2013 in their most recent meeting. That makes this a revenge spot for New York and, in games 9 through 12 of a season, when playing with revenge versus an opponent who is off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin, the Giants have gone 1-10 ATS. Chicago, in games 9 through 12 of a season, have gone 7-1 ATS when off of a SU loss and facing an opponent who is off of back to back SU and ATS wins. Statistically these teams are truly not different at all when you look at yardage stats but the Giants have simply "found a way" and that is why they are 6-3 on the season while the Bears are 2-7 both SU and ATS. The result here when you consider just how equal these teams are is that we're getting extra line value based on market perception. The Giants should perhaps be a 3 point choice based on home field but instead they're laying 7 or 7.5 in this one and that's value for the dog. Based on the angles above we also are testing a combined 27-4 (87%) ATS mark! I'll gladly take that "test"! 8* CHICAGO |
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11-19-16 | USC v. UCLA +13.5 | Top | 36-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
PAC-12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #406 Saturday - 10* Top Play UCLA Bruins (+) vs USC Trojans @ 10:30 ET - Huge rivalry game of course and the Bruins have some added confidence after getting back into the win column with a big win over Oregon State last week. This week UCLA catches the Trojans off of their big upset win at Washington last week as a TD+ underdog. Give USC credit as that was a very impressive performance but of course it is difficult to come out and have your "A game" in back to back weeks and, in my opinion, it would take another "A game" from the Trojans to be able to cover this large spread Saturday night. Yes, QB Josh Rosen is out for the season for the Bruins but starting in his place is a 5th year senior, Mike Fafaul, who completed 25 of 47 passes for 281 yards last week. Of course it will be a much tougher task for Fafaul and Company against the USC defense BUT how much will the Trojans have left in the tank after that huge upset win last week? Also, lets not forget that the Bruins defense has been fantastic this season as only one team (Utah) has scored more than 27 points against this defense (not including overtime points). Sure USC has put up big points against bad Pac 12 defenses and against an overmatched Utah State team in non-conference action. However, in the Trojans other 5 games (against quality defenses) they were held to an average of only 18 points per game. I just don't see USC getting enough against this quality Bruins defense to blow UCLA away. Simply put, this game will go down to the wire as the 4-6 Bruins would love nothing more than to eliminate their hated rival from PAC-12 South contention. The Trojans are a long-term 5-10 ATS as road favorites of 10.5 to 14 points. In games played in weeks 10 through 13 of a season, the Bruins are 7-2 ATS their last 9. The home team is on a 14-5 ATS run in this series and, overall, USC is on a 11-22 ATS run as a road favorite. The Bruins had won 3 straight in this series (all by double digits) before last seasons embarrassing 40-21 loss to the Trojans. It is time for a little payback here. 10* UCLA Bruins plus the big points Saturday |
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11-19-16 | Tulsa +1 v. Central Florida | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Contrarian Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #391 Saturday - 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) @ Central Florida Knights @ 8 ET - The Knights have bounced back from an insane 0-12 season to go 6-4 so far this season. However, their 6 wins included one against an FCS school and 5 against FBS schools that each have at least 7 losses on the season! The point is that I am not sold on the UCF turnaround and Tulsa comes into this game angry off of a tight loss at Navy last week. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 518.5 yards of offense per game and this will prove to be too much for a Central Florida offense that is averaging only 361.5 yards per game. Tulsa is playing the 2nd of back to back road games for the only time this season but this is a situation that has seen them go 7-1 ATS their last 8 and I like backing them off of a loss as they now look to get back on track with a win. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last 5 games. Also, Tulsa is an incredible 27-7 SU (and ATS!) when they score 30 points or more in a conference game. So far this season the Golden Hurricane have scored at least 31 points in every single game except for when they faced Ohio State. Look for the Tulsa offense to stay red hot and Central Florida gets exposed here! I'll gladly fade a line move that has seen the Golden Hurricane go from being as high as a 4 point favorite to now being a 1 point dog in this one. 8* TULSA Saturday |
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11-19-16 | Stanford v. California +10.5 | 45-31 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Big Game - Rickenbach CFB Game #376 Saturday - 8* California Golden Bears (+) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 5:30 ET - Of course this literally is "The Big Game" and Stanford has won 6 straight match-ups. However, this could be "the year" for Cal as an upset here would not surprise me given the situation but, either way, the fact is that the points are too much here. Without a doubt the Cardinal possess the much better defense but there also is no doubt that California has the much more explosive offense. That said, I feel this is a rather "even match-up" and yet we're able to get double digit points with the home dog! Keep in mind, Cal has to have this game to keep bowl eligibility hopes alive and also, of course, the added motivational edge of the players on this California team wanting to finally have "The Stanford Axe" that remains with the team who wins this annual battle. None of these players have ever had it since they haven't beaten Stanford since 2009. Note that the Cardinal finally had an offensive explosion last week but this was a team that previously had averaged only 19.9 points per game in their first 9 games of this season. It's hard to cover a spread like this one when you struggle to put points on the board and I am not "sold" on the Stanford offense after just one game. It's also doubly hard to cover a big spread like this when you're facing a team that averages nearly 40 points and over 500 yards per game! Even though the Bears have lost bad the past three weeks, they have averaged 454 yards of offense per game and they will have some success against the Cardinal D as this is one of the top offenses in the nation. Cal did recently have an ugly home loss to Washington but they are 3-0 in their other 3 home games this season with wins over Oregon, Utah, and Texas. They also won their neutral site opener in Australia vs Hawaii back in August. The point is that Utah and Texas are certainly not horrible teams and Cal not only beat them but they have won every single non-road game this season other than the one against the Huskies. Keep in mind that's the same Washington team that blasted Stanford 44-6 earlier this season. Simply put, the Cardinal don't belong in this price range against a home dog that has the offense to rise up and keep up the Golden Bears in this one all the way. 8* CALIFORNIA Saturday |
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11-19-16 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +21.5 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #396 Saturday - 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - Spartans coach Dantonio has a knack for being a cash cow as an underdog. Dantonio is on an 11-2 ATS run as an underdog and 8 of those 11 victories have been outright wins. Though they are unlikely to upset Ohio State here, the spread is far too big. The Spartans lost to rival Michigan here in East Lansing by only 9 points three weeks ago. Also, the weather will be very cold and windy today with temperatures in the 30s and winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40. It is not going to be a day that is conducive for offenses to put up many points. Of course that favors a big underdog like the Spartans are here as they are catching more than 3 TDs in this one. Ohio State has "The Game" on deck as they face the Wolverines next week. That makes this the perfect spot to back a Michigan State team that was able to get some confidence back thanks to annihilating Rutgers 49-0 last week. The Spartans needed that win as it has been a very tough season for them. That makes games like this ultra important to them. It is their home finale and a chance at pulling off a shocker. Though I don't expect that I do expect the Spartans to keep this one much closer than many are expecting. Michigan State is a perfect 13-0 ATS when they are a home dog of more than 4 points and they are coming off of a SU win. Ohio State is a winless 0-9 ATS when they are a road favorite of less than 25 points and they are coming off of a SU win by double digits and now facing a team with a sub.-500 record. With the Spartans only 3-7 on the season that system fits here and that means that by playing the big home dog we are testing angles that are a combined 22-0, 100%! 8* MICHIGAN STATE Saturday |
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11-17-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Panthers | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #309 Thursday - 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:25 ET - Both teams are looking to bounce back off of tough losses this past Sunday. That said, the value here is with the Saints even though it is the Panthers who are seeking revenge for a loss at New Orleans earlier this season. The fact is that Carolina just isn't the same team it once was. They have faded this season and it hasn't been a fluke. The statistics back it up. With their loss versus Kansas City Sunday, the Panthers have now been held under 350 yards of offense in 3 straight games. It is not just the offense that is having problems either. In their 5 games prior to blowing a huge lead and losing to the Chiefs, the Carolina pass defense was completely exposed as they allowed an average of 347.8 yards per game through the air. The Panthers aren't going to stop a Saints offense that has the #1 aerial attack in the league on a clear night with calm winds in Carolina. The Saints have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Also, New Orleans is on a solid 6-2 ATS run in divisional games. The Panthers only 2 ATS wins this season have come with extra rest (once after a Monday night game and once after their bye week). Carolina is 0-6-1 ATS in their other 7 games this season and now the Panthers comes into this Thursday game on short rest. Coincidentally, the other time Carolina entered a game on short rest this season was when they faced the Saints in October after a Monday night game. That didn't go so well as the Panthers gave up 523 yards in a game that Carolina only lost by 3 but that easily could have been decided by much more than that. The Saints just have too much offense for a "scuffling" Panthers team this season and, additionally, the New Orleans defense has shown some improvement as the Saints have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 359 yards or less. 8* NEW ORLEANS Thursday |
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11-17-16 | Louisville -14.5 v. Houston | 10-36 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
ESPN ATS Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #311 Thursday - 8* Louisville Cardinals (-) @ Houston Cougars @ 8 ET - The Cougars have not been the same team since all the head coaching rumors started flying around about Tom Herman's future as he is one of the more sought after coaches in the nation. This started right before Houston got upset at Navy and that began a horrible decline for the Cougars that has seen them lose 5 straight ATS. Certainly the Cougars would like nothing more than to play the role of spoiler and step up big-time on ESPN Thursday night and upset one of the top teams in the nation. However, Houston star QB Greg Ward is dealing with a bad shoulder and a bad ankle and, overall, this Cougars team is simply no match for a revenge-minded Cardinals team. Louisville suffered a home loss to the Cougars last season and that ensures that they once they get up huge in this game they will keep the pedal to the metal so I have no qualms about laying the 2 TD spread plus even more on Thursday night. The Cardinals are better on both sides of the ball than the Cougars are. Keep in mind, Houston has been held to an average of 329.7 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and those were against SMU, UCF, and Tulane! There is no way the Cougars are going to keep up with QB Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals in this one. Jackson and Company are averaging 50 points per game this season and their defense has held their last 3 opponents to 322 yards or less in all 5 games. This is clearly a case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Cardinals are on a 13-3 ATS run when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage of .666 or better. Look for Houston's run to reach 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as the Cards get their payback in a big way tonight. 8* LOUISVILLE Thursday |
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11-15-16 | Ohio v. Central Michigan +1 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #304 Tuesday - 8* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - Senior night in Mount Pleasant, Michigan and one of those seniors is QB Cooper Rush who has been projected as high as a 4th round draft pick in the NFL draft next spring. Look for him to lead the way against a Ohio University team that has won three straight games but that has allowed passing yards of 308 or more in 3 of their last 4 games. In fact, in those 3 games the Bobcats allowed an average of 364.3 passing yards. The Chippewas have lost three straight games and they are hungry to get back on track and make sure they get to a bowl game. The last time they faced Ohio U. the Chips dominated them by a final score of 28-10 two seasons ago. A similar result here would not be a total shock. Central Michigan is very hungry for this game and they have played a tougher schedule than the Bobcats have. Also, the Chippewas are on a perfect 6-0 ATS run in home games where they are off of back to back losses and they are hosting an opponent who is off of back to back wins. In this case, the Chips are coming in on a 3-game losing streak while the Cats are on a 3-game winning streak. Perfect set-up! Adding to the value here is the fact that Ohio U. had two MAC opponents they were facing this year that they lost to last year. One was Bowling Green and the other was Buffalo. After a revenging win over the Falcons earlier this season the Bobcats then lost as a 7 point favorite at home versus Eastern Michigan. Now, after a revenging win over the Bulls last week, look for a similar result here as Ohio University follows up a revenging win with a loss in their next game. 8* CENTRAL MICHIGAN Tuesday |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks +7.5 v. Patriots | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #273 Sunday - 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:30 PM ET - The Patriots seem to be head and shoulders above the rest of the league since Tom Brady returned but a closer look shows that, even though they are off of their bye week and have won 4 straight, this could be the week they get tripped up. The Pats have not faced a team that currently has a winning record since Brady returned. The combined record of the 4 teams is currently 11-23-1. The teams included Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Buffalo. The only team they faced that currently is at .500 on the season is Pittsburgh and the Patriots were lucky as they caught the Steelers sans Ben Roethlisberger! Now Sunday night New England will finally get a test as they face a 5-2-1 Seahawks team. Sure Seattle did not impress on Monday night against the Bills but, of course, they were looking ahead to this game! This is a Super Bowl rematch! The Seahawks lost to the Patriots on February 1, 2015 and they've been waiting for this shot at redemption for nearly two full years now! I look for the highly motivated Hawks to make the most of it and, if they do fall short, it should be 7 or less. Seattle has a strong defense and also is getting their passing game back into high gear as Russell Wilson has gotten healthier. Head coach Pete Carroll has led his team to an incredible 13-1 ATS mark when they are an underdog playing with revenge. Also, in weeks 10 through 13 the past two seasons, the Patriots only covered 2 of 7 games. New England is on a long-term run of only 14-21 ATS when playing 2 weeks or more of rest. In other words, the "benefit" of a bye week hasn't been enough to overcome the big spreads that the Pats often are involved with in a situation like this. The Sunday night game looks like another one of those "inflated" spots and I expect the upset here or a loss to come by only a single possession. The Seahawks are so hungry for this opportunity and the Patriots finally are facing a true challenge for the first time since Brady came back. This should be a fantastic, tight, Super Bowl rematch! 8* SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Sunday night |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -3 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 PM ET - Beautiful set-up here and one that I have had my eyes on for quite some time. The Cowboys have now won and covered 7 straight games while the Steelers have now lost and failed to cover 3 straight games. The key in looking at these two teams is that Pittsburgh is very hungry, at home, and has Ben Roethlisberger ready to go in his 2nd game back with the rust shaken off last week. Dallas has been fortunate with playing a much easier schedule in comparison with the Steelers. The Cowboys have gone 2-1 in the NFC East games (but easily could (should!) be 0-3 in those games. Outside of their division they have gone 5-0 but not a single one of those teams has a winning record and 3 of the games have come against the 3 worst teams in the league (Cleveland, San Francisco, Chicago). The combined record of the 5 teams Dallas has played outside of their division is 10-31-1 and, again, I reiterate they easily could be 0-3 in their division. They did lose to the Giants but got very lucky to beat Redskins (Washington was going into the end zone to make it a two possession game in 4th quarter when disaster struck) and also lucky to beat Eagles (Philly had huge lead and made questionable coaching decisions in game eventually won by Dallas in OT). This is the beginning of a tough stretch in the schedule for the Cowboys and with the Tony Romo/Dak Prescott controversy about to reach a fever pitch, you are about to see Dallas implode over the remainder of this season. Just look at their remaining schedule and you'll see what I am talking about. But here his is our opportunity to get in on the "ground floor" of this implosion because it starts today with having to travel to face a fired up Steelers team that was considered a prime Super Bowl contender before this season started. Keep in mind, the Roethlisberger injury certainly hurt them as they were 4-1 on the year going into the game in which he got hurt. Look for him to have a big game today as the Cowboys pass defense has been susceptible at times this season. They allowed an average of 320.3 passing yards per game against Green Bay, Chicago, and Washington. Dallas is only 10-12 ATS in games where the line is between +3 and -3 and the Cowboys are also on a long-term 10-17 ATS run in games against the AFC North. The Steelers are 6-1 SU and ATS when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. Also, Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) when they are off of a loss against a division rival. Off of a tough loss at Baltimore last week (outgained Ravens) look for the Steelers to bounce back as they improve on their 12-4 record in games against teams with a winning record. The home team will be at its best for this game while you see the Cowboys finally get knocked off of their perch as they're exposed for their fortunate schedule and lucky early-season bounces of the ball. 10* Top Play PITTSBURGH STEELERS Sunday |
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11-13-16 | Broncos +3 v. Saints | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #255 Sunday - 8* Denver Broncos (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 PM ET - Of course, without a shadow of a doubt, the Saints have the better offense in this match-up. However, defense can certainly win football games and the Broncos have long proven that to be the case. Also, the fact is, New Orleans has one of the worst defenses in the league so don't be surprised if Denver enjoys plenty of success on offense in this one. The Broncos come into this game very hungry after losing badly at Oakland on Sunday night. Denver, even after losing that game as a 1 point road dog, is still 8-2 ATS their last 10 games as an underdog. As for the Saints, they are off of a blowout win over the 49'ers but it was fueled by turnovers. The Niners turned the ball over 4 times and New Orleans managed to win the game by 18 points despite allowing San Francisco to gain nearly 500 yards of offense. The Broncos are on a 14-6 ATS run in non-conference action. Also, Denver has a bye week on deck so they certainly are going to "leave it all on the field" at New Orleans Sunday as the defending Super Bowl champs don't want to go into the bye week on an 0-2 skid. The Saints are on a 7-16 ATS run as a favorite. Also, when the Saints enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive wins, they've lost 3 of the last 4. New Orleans has a big game on deck Thursday with division rival (and defending NFC champ) Carolina. The Saints are only 4-5 SU their last 9 in the game before facing the Panthers but the bigger story there is only 1 of those 4 wins came by more than 3 points. Look for New Orleans to struggle to get past the Broncos in this one and, if they do win, expect it to be by a field goal or less although certainly I am making this play with expectation of an outright upset. 8* DENVER BRONCOS Sunday |
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11-12-16 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -6.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #202 Saturday - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - This line has dropped from a -8 down to a -6 and, of course, much of this has to do with the uncertainty of Tommy Armstrong, Jr being cleared to play for Saturday's game. The key here in my mind is that, even if he does not play and it ends up being senior QB Ryker Fyfe that gets the call, the Cornhuskers are still going to annihilate the Golden Gophers here. Minnesota has a nice-looking record but look at who they've beaten! Minny has wins over an FCS school, 2 non-conf FBS schools that are a combined 7-11 this season, and then their 4 Big Ten wins have come against teams that are a combined 5-19 in the conference. Nebraska's Big Ten wins at least include a pair of teams (Indiana and Northwestern) who at least are at .500 in conference action this season. Also, in non-conf action they absolutely blasted a Wyoming team that is now 7-2 on the season. The Huskers have played a much tougher schedule and will be stronger for it in this game. After back to back losses at Wisconsin and Ohio State, the Cornhuskers are happy to be back home and this is a night game at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln which means the atmosphere will be insane! Nebraska also has revenge from a rare home loss to Minny when the Gophers visited 2 years ago. That means it is payback time in this rematch at home. It was some measure of revenge for the Huskers when they blasted the Golden Gophers by 23 in Minnesota last season but now they want a taste of that in Lincoln too! Minny is 3-7 ATS when they enter a game off of back to back wins. Also, Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in their next game after facing Purdue (big rivalry). Also, the Gophers are 0-5 ATS as road dogs of less than 20 points or less when they're off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. That system fits as well here and that means we've got a 15-0 ATS combined mark in favor of the Huskers here because Nebraska is also 3-0 ATS when they enter a game off of back to back losses. They are the better team, they're at home, and Ryker Fyfe did throw for over 400 yards in a rare start last season (against Purdue). The Huskers are rallying around this situation with Tommy Armstrong Jr and, no matter who ends up under center, the Cornhuskers are ready to respond after last week's embarrassing loss. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday |
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11-12-16 | LSU -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #169 Saturday - 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (-) @ Arkansas @ 7 ET - Other than Alabama, clearly a team in a class of their own, teams just don't beat LSU in Baton Rouge. It is a rare occurrence and, when it does happen, the Tigers almost always get their revenge in the next meeting. Last week's loss to Alabama for LSU was the first time they've lost at home since Arkansas beat them last season. The Razorbacks beat the Tigers by 17 in Baton Rouge last year to hand LSU its worst home loss since Ole Miss beat them by 18 back in 2008. Needless to say, that makes this a huge revenge spot for LSU and the situation is set up perfectly. The Tigers are off of a 10-0 home shutout versus the Crimson Tide last week while Arkansas is off of a huge revenging 31-10 win versus Florida last week. The Hogs wanted that game badly as they were off of a thorough embarrassment in their prior game (at Auburn) and they had lost to the Gators by 20 points in their most recent game (in coach Bret Bielema's first year in Arkansas). Even though LSU is off of a key game (Alabama) which they wanted badly, the fact that they suffered a home shutout and the fact that they only have a non-conference opponent (South Alabama) on deck ensures that the Tigers will be ready for this revenge opportunity. Arkansas has not won back to back games since mid-September and their defense allows nearly 100 yards more per game than the Tigers defense does. LSU has lost by 17 points to Arky in each of the last two meetings and that adds fuel to the fire for this rematch as the Tigers did lose by a 17-0 count in their last visit to Fayetteville. LSU is on a 10-5 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points while Arkansas is on a 5-8 ATS run as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The last 6 times that LSU lost a game and were held to 10 points or less, they have won the next game ALL 6 TIMES and gone 5-1 ATS in those games with the lone non-cover coming up just 1 point short. The Tigers bounce back again here, plus get some payback in this double revenge spot, and they catch Arkansas flat off of their huge win over the Gators last week. 10* LSU Tigers Saturday |
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11-12-16 | Wyoming -7.5 v. UNLV | 66-69 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #151 Saturday - 8* Wyoming Cowboys (-) @ UNLV Rebels @ 3:30 ET - This line opened up as high as -9 on Wyoming and then did fall all the way down to a -7. However, it "settled in" at -7.5 but I am still comfortable laying the 7 plus "the hook" in this one. The Cowboys continue to win but also continue to be under-valued and that is why I am investing in them again this week. Wyoming has not suffered a SU loss or ATS loss since they lost a tight game at Eastern Michigan on September 23rd! The Cowboys will now take advantage of facing a UNLV team that has lost 6 of their past 8 games and that is on a 2-5 ATS skid. The Rebels are on a 1-7 ATS run as a home dog and they're hosting a Wyoming team that is on an overall 13-6 ATS run. The Cowboys ground game is led by RB Hill who has totaled 835 rushing yards in his last 5 games. Last season he ran for 232 yards against the Rebels and UNLV's defense has been getting gashed on the ground. Overall, the Rebels have allowed 424 yards or more in 4 straight games. UNLV's only wins this season have come against an FCS school and Fresno State and Hawaii. The Bulldogs and Warriors are a combined 5-15 this season. To put it bluntly, UNLV is simply not a good a football team and this line is a very manageable one. The average margin of defeat for the Rebels this season is 15 points per loss. The Cowboys last 6 wins have seen only 1 victory come by a margin of less than 8 points. Wyoming is on a 9-1 ATS run when they enter a game off of back to back wins against conference opponents. The Rebels are on a 1-6 ATS run when they are off of a SU loss in a game in which they were favored. UNLV is off of a loss as a 3 point fave at San Jose State and the Spartans were 2-7 on the season. Bad football team and Wyoming is a team on a mission. They do have a big game on deck with San Diego State but the Cowboys showed last week (when off of a huge win over Boise State and still blasted Utah State) that, no matter the situation, this team is coming to play each week. 8* WYOMING Saturday |
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11-12-16 | Kentucky +14 v. Tennessee | 36-49 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #165 Saturday - 8* Kentucky Wildcats (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ Noon ET - The whole world is jumping on Tennessee here and that's not a surprise as the Volunteers have dominated long-term in their series with the Wildcats. However, Kentucky has gone from an 11 point dog to a 14 point dog in this one and that is opening up exceptional line value on the Cats. Keep in mind, these teams have faced very similar schedules in terms of strength of opponents and Kentucky had won 5 of 6 both SU and ATS before last week's tough loss to Georgia. Sure that was a tough defeat for the Wildcats to lose by just a field goal to the Bulldogs but do you really think they won't be fired up about an opportunity to resume their recent winning ways against a hated rival that always seems to have their number? Undoubtedly, Kentucky will bring their "A game" Saturday and they're facing a Vols team that just blasted an FCS team last week but that has lost three straight SEC games and also is on a 1-3 ATS run in SEC games. The Volunteers continue to be over-valued by the betting markets and Tennessee is on a 2-10 ATS run when they are home favorites of 8 points or more and facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Wildcats only have 2 losses by double digit margins this season and those were to SEC East leader Florida and SEC West leader Alabama. Tennessee only has 2 wins this season by more than 10 points and one was against FCS opponent Tennessee Tech last week and the other was by 21 points over Virginia Tech but the Hokies outgained the Vols by a 400 to 330 margin in that game! Don't be surprised if the Wildcats keep this game much closer than many are expecting. Statistically these teams are very similar this season and the Cats are highly motivated because of getting beaten badly by the Volunteers in recent years. 8* KENTUCKY Saturday |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21 v. Florida State | 7-45 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #117 Friday - 8* Boston College Eagles (+) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 7:30 ET - Against the ACC's top teams (Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville), the Eagles defense struggled. In their other 6 games this season, Boston College allowed an average of only 13.2 points per game. The Eagles D is viewing this Friday night game under the ESPN2 cameras as an opportunity to show that this unit can still get the job done against the better teams in the nation. Under coach Steve Addazio, Boston College has lost to the Seminoles all 3 years but no loss was by more than 14 points and the Eagles only lost by 3 points in their lone visit to Florida State since Addazio took over. Even though the BC offense is having another tough season, the Noles secondary and linebacking corps is simply not what it used to be. That's played a big role in Florida State's drop-off this season. The Seminoles once vaunted defense has allowed 450 yards or more in 5 of their last 7 games! The Eagles offense, with QB Patrick Towles further healed up from his hamstring problems, may surprise the Noles with some big plays downfield. Florida State is an ugly 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The Eagles, under Addazio, have gone 7-3 ATS as a double digit dog. Also, BC is a long-term 5-1 ATS as a road dog of 17.5 to 21 points. FSU has been outgained in back to back weeks. The Seminoles did come from behind for the non-covering win at NC State last week but they are 6-11 ATS when off of a win in conference action and I expect another non-covering win here for the Noles. Florida State used a lot of energy up in their comeback win over the Wolfpack last week. It's been back to back grueling games for the Seminoles as they went toe to toe in a slugfest with Clemson the prior week as well. The Eagles are amped up for this weeknight "spotlight game" opportunity and will keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE Friday |
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11-10-16 | Browns v. Ravens -8 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #110 Thursday - 8* Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:25 ET - At first glance this may seem like a good spot to grab the big points with the Browns. After all, the Ravens are off of a big win over the rival Steelers Sunday and it would be easy for Baltimore to overlook a Cleveland team that is 0-9. However, the reason I am going against the common though processes with this play is because of a couple key factors. The Ravens, by virtue of their win versus Pittsburgh last week, are tied for first place with the Steelers in the AFC North and this game against the Browns is a divisional game. The other key factor is that the Browns upset the Ravens as TD underdogs last season in Baltimore! Rest assured, the Ravens haven't forgotten about losing to Cleveland the last time they hosted them at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. In John Harbaugh's 9 years with the Ravens they are 8-1 SU at Cleveland and tonight they are looking to improve to 8-1 SU at home against the Browns. As you can see, Harbaugh's Ravens have dominated the Browns and I look for them to get revenge for that lone home loss to Cleveland which was the first one since 2007. After opening up as high as a 10.5 this line has dropped to an 8 as of early gameday morning and this is offering excellent line value to the revenging home fave. The Ravens did win at Cleveland earlier this season but they allowed the Browns to jump out to a big, early lead and then had to rally back for the win. You can bet that the Ravens don't want to let that happen again and they'll come out fired up from the opening kickoff in this game. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS when off of a win against a division rival. Cleveland is 0-5 ATS when they are a divisional road dog of more than 7 points. The Browns also are 0-7 ATS when on the road and facing a divisional foe with revenge. Yes, the Ravens did get their revenge already on the road against Cleveland twice already (once late last season and once earlier this season) but this is the first time they have hosted the Browns since that early season home loss last year. It's payback time and I'll test that combined 12-0 ATS mark in favor of the home favorite here. 8* BALTIMORE Thursday |
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11-10-16 | North Carolina -10.5 v. Duke | 27-28 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #111 Thursday - 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 7:30 ET - Without a shadow of a doubt, the Blue Devils do want this game badly. They are winless in ACC action, this is their home finale, they need the W to have a shot at bowl eligibility, and this is the battle for the Victory Bell in this rivalry match-up. The problem for Duke is that that the Tar Heels also have plenty of motivation here and they are the far superior team with the much better (and much more experienced QB). North Carolina is a solid 7-2 on the season and still has hopes of an ACC title. UNC is led by QB Mitch Trubisky and the 6'3 junior has a 19-2 TD-INT ratio which is even more impressive when you take out the game played during poor conditions (Hurricane Matthew). Without that game included (horrible weather), Trubisky has thrown 19 TDs and ZERO picks on the season. His counterpart tonight is a redshirt freshman, 6'5 Daniel Jones, who has thrown for 6 TDs (but also 6 picks) in his last 5 games. Jones is a dual threat QB but on a beautiful night in Durham, NC tonight the key to the big winner here is going to be the team with the better passing game. The Blue Devils defense is known for giving up huge plays and the Tar Heels aerial attack will pick them apart for big plays all game long. North Carolina, other than the Hurricane Matthew game, has thrown for an average of 380.3 passing yards per game since mid-Sept. The Tar Heels have also averaged 207.3 yards per game on the ground their last 3 games. Their offense will tear apart the Blue Devils defense and Duke won't be able to keep up with UNC here. The Heels are on a 6-1 ATS run as a road favorite. Also, North Carolina has a long-term mark of 4-1 ATS when they are a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points so don't let the big number scare you here. Duke is only 1-3 SU and ATS in Thursday games. The Blue Devils have lost to the Tar Heels by a margin of 30 points per defeat the last two seasons and another loss by double digits is likely here as UNC's roll is simply too strong right now. 8* NORTH CAROLINA Thursday |
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11-09-16 | Toledo -6.5 v. Northern Illinois | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
12-0 MAC Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #105 Wednesday - 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL @ 8 ET - Even though the Huskies have won 2 straight games they still have only 3 wins on the season and those victories came against teams that have a combined record of 2-14 in the MAC. As for Toledo, they are 7-2 on the season with the only two losses to BYU and Ohio U. and those teams are combined 12-7 on the season. Not only are the Rockets the superior team this season, this is also not a true home game for the Huskies since it's being played in Chicago. Regardless of the venue, the road team has covered 5 straight in the Toledo/Northern Illinois series and this is a major revenge spot for the Rockets since the Huskies have gotten the SU win in 6 straight meetings! Toledo has thrived away from home as they are on a 12-1 ATS run their last 13 away from the Glass Bowl. The Rockets also entered this season with a 6-1 ATS mark when playing with revenge and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or less. In weekday road games, Toledo is on a 7-0 ATS run after last Wednesday's easy cover at Akron. Combining that mark with the aforementioned 5-0 ATS mark in favor of the road team in the L5 Rockets/Huskies match-ups and that means a 12-0, 100% PERFECT ATS mark is being tested Wednesday night. With this number still available at -6.5 even with a potential line move upward it should still be well within range for an easy cover. 6 of the 7 Rockets wins this season have come by 14 points or more. 8* TOLEDO Wednesday |
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11-07-16 | Bills +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
MNF Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Monday - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - The ability to get a full TD here with a dangerous underdog in a strong situation is raising this pick to Top Play rating for me. Yes, Seattle is a tough place to play and has a raucous crowd but 2 of their 3 home wins this season have come by just 2 points. Also, since their bye week in early October, the Seahawks have been outgained in each of their last 3 games. Seattle went 1-1-1 in this stretch with the lone win by just 2 points over Atlanta. Also, it is worth noting that the Seahawks most recent trip to the Super Bowl was a loss in February 2015 to the Patriots. Up next for Seattle is a trip to New England. It's impossible for Seattle coach Pete Carroll and company to not be "peeking ahead" a bit to that game. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in games played in Weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons. The Bills are 7-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Buffalo is also a perfect 3-0 ATS (and SU!) their last 3 against the NFC West and also a perfect 6-0 ATS (and SU!) the last 6 times they have entered a game off of back to back losses. That's a 9-0, 100% run that supports an outright upset here and I am grabbing the points here. Look for the Bills rushing ability (with LeSean McCoy now healthier) to be a difference maker here as they are averaging 154 rushing yards per game (compared to Seattle's 81.4 per game on the ground). With solid defense (allowed 16.2 points per game their last 5 games prior to bad loss to NE) and a strong ground game, the Bills have the right recipe for hanging tough with the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. 10* BUFFALO BILLS Monday Night |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers +5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #464 Sunday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play San Francisco 49'ers (+) vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - No one will want the 49'ers here but contrarian handicapping is something that has treated me very well in NFL through the years. The key to this play is the situational aspect and the corresponding line value. The Saints are off of a huge win at home as they knocked off Seattle at the Superdome. Now, New Orleans has to try to "get up" for a 49'ers team that has only won one game this season and comes into this week on a 6-game winning streak. Making matters worse for the Saints is that they have games against Denver and Carolina on deck. The Panthers are a division rival who was in the Super Bowl last year. The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year and lost it two years prior to that. The Seahawks were who won the Super Bowl that year over Denver and then Seattle lost the Super Bowl the next year. The point is that New Orleans has a stretch of 4 games here filled with teams that have been among the NFL's elite in recent seasons. In the middle of all this is a trip to the West Coast to face a 49'ers team that has been among the worst in the league this season. If ever there is a spot for the Saints to fall flat this is absolutely it and I feel strongly that San Francisco is ripe to take advantage. The 49'ers will be ready (both mentally and physically) after a much needed bye week. The Niners are on a 10-5 ATS run as a home dog. The Saints per game averages for the offense are 10 points less and 128 yards less when they are on the road compared to when they are home. Also, New Orleans is on an ugly 1-8 ATS skid as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. What is even more amazing about that is that the Saints have lost 7 of those 9 games outright! I definitely would not be surprised to see another outright upset here but certainly the value here is with the big points being offered to the 49'ers. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-06-16 | Lions +6.5 v. Vikings | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday - 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Look for the Lions to bounce back off of their first loss since October 2nd. Detroit had won 3 straight before losing by a TD at Houston last week. Part of what keyed the Lions 3-1 run has been winning the turnover battle as they have forced 6 turnovers in their last 4 games while only turning the ball over once in their last 4 games. Unlike Detroit, Minnesota is heading the wrong direction. The Vikings have lost back to back games and been outscored by a combined 41 to 20. Teams have found that the Vikes can be beat by blitzing and forcing Sam Bradford to either get rid of the ball quickly or take the sack. It has been an ugly 2 weeks for the Vikings since their bye and now the resignation of offensive coordinator Norv Turner adds to the unsettling times in Minnesota. The Vikings offense ranks as one of the worst in the league for yardage as they average only 293.3 yards per game. The Lions play this game with double revenge as they lost both games to the Vikings last season. One game was a 9 point defeat and the other was a 10 point defeat but the Lions have closed the gap on the Vikings in recent weeks and that is why there is great line value with underdog Detroit catching about a touchdown here with the current line on this game. Minnesota is on a short week here and they were outgained by 145 yards by the Bears on Monday Night! The Vikings are hungry to respond off of back to back losses but they will struggle with a Lions team that has the better offense in this match-up. Detroit smells "blood in the water" and can pull within a half game of the division leading Vikings and certainly the Lions are going to go "all out" as they have their bye week on deck. 8* DETROIT |
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11-06-16 | Eagles +3 v. Giants | 23-28 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #455 Sunday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles have truly had just one bad game this season and yet they sit at only 4-3 on the year and really need to make a move this week if they're going to remain in contention in the NFC East. The Eagles had a horrible game at Washington that was inexcusable 3 weeks ago. Perhaps they were deflated because of the loss they never should have had against Detroit (tough late fumble was difference) the prior week. However, the Eagles then responded off the loss at Detroit by knocking off Minnesota and Philadelphia has been at their best against quality opposition. They beat Pittsburgh when they were 3-0 and the Vikings when they were 5-0. Though Philly fell short in OT at Dallas last week that was a tough loss as they led the game 20-10 in the third quarter and then the Eagles offense never even got a chance with the football in overtime. Needless to say, Philadelphia is fired up about this week's game and they are always tough on the Giants. In fact, the Eagles have covered 8 of their last 9 visits to New York! Also, Philly has beaten the Giants in both meetings each of the past two years. New York is off of their bye week but they've lost off of their bye week each of the last two seasons and the Giants are known for late season fades with a 33-60 ATS mark in November games! Also, their long-term mark when playing with extra rest is 10-18 ATS. The Eagles are 5-1 SU and ATS when off of a loss against a division rival and also 5-2 SU and ATS when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. The Giants are 1-9 ATS in the first of back to back home games. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +7.5 | 35-10 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #458 Sunday - 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - We've all heard the expression "on any given Sunday" and that certainly applies here. The Browns are the only team in the AFC that hasn't won two games yet this season and, in fact, remain winless at 0-8. The Cowboys are the only team in the NFC that hasn't lost two games yet this season as they enter this game at 7-1. So basically you have the best team in the NFC against the worst team in the entire league. What happens? It all come down to situational handicapping and, with the Cowboys off of yet another divisional win they should not have had, don't be surprised if the Browns surprise a lot of people Sunday. Dallas beat Philly last week but it took overtime and truly, had the Eagles not screwed up a late FG opportunity (and inexplicably punted) the Cowboys would not have won last week. Earlier this season Dallas beat the Redskins in a game where Washington was on the goal line ready to put the game away and go up by two scores and then a huge turnover occurred and the Cowboys had another divisional win they did not necessarily deserve. This is the time to fade Dallas. They are being lauded as one of the top teams in the league (and certainly deserve some credit) but they are leading the NFC East division even though they easily could be 0-3 in their divisional games on the year. By the way, their other wins came against 4 teams whose combined record is 10-19-1 on the season. Be careful just handing the Super Bowl trophy to the Cowboys. Their downfall will start this week (surprise to many) and certainly they have a tough upcoming schedule. As for the Browns, as bad as they have been, 4 of their last 7 losses have come by 6 points or less. Also, this is their first opportunity this season where they have been home for back to back weeks and 2 of their 3 home losses have come by 5 points or less. This is a hungry Cleveland team that views this game (a chance to knock off of a team with one of the best records in the league) as hosting a mini-Super Bowl so to speak. Dallas is 3-6 SU and ATS in November games the past two seasons. 8* CLEVELAND |
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11-05-16 | Utah State v. Wyoming -4 | Top | 28-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
MW Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #380 Saturday - 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (-) vs Utah State Aggies @ 10:15 ET - Wyoming was as high as a 7 point fave but has now dropped to a -4 as of gameday morning. The line move is completely understood as many are looking to fade the Cowboys off of their big upset win over Boise State. The reason that angle does not concern me is four fold. 1) Utah State is not a good football team. 2) Wyoming is home for a 2nd straight week. 3) The Cowboys win over the Broncos was not the pinnacle of their season as they still have their sites set on winning the Mountain Division. 4) Revenge is a huge motivating factor and Wyoming has lost each of their last 4 match-ups with Utah State by an average margin of 30 points per defeat! As you can see, despite the big win over Boise last week, there is no way Wyoming is going to come out flat for this game. On the "off chance" that they did however, I would still expect coach Craig Bohl to rally the troops at half-time and this line is very manageable. I just don't see the Cowboys losing at home here and being able to lay just 4 is a huge value. Utah State has only 3 wins this season and those came against an FCS school, a Sun Belt team, and Fresno State - the worst MW team in the conference. The Aggies are off of a 40-13 demolishing loss at San Diego State last week and Utah State has gone 1-6 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points and are then facing a team who is off of back to back SU wins. In this case, the red hot Cowboys have won 4 straight games and the roll should continue Saturday. Wyoming is 8-1 ATS when they are off of back to back SU wins and facing a conference opponent. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 3 points and playing in a revenge opportunity versus and opponent off of a SU loss by a double digit margin. 10* WYOMING |
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11-05-16 | Alabama -7 v. LSU | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
SEC Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #411 Saturday - 8* Alabama Crimson Tide (-) @ LSU Tigers @ 8 ET - The Tigers, as a sizable home dog here, are a very popular choice this week. Of course those who have followed me for years know I like to fade the masses and top ranked Alabama is one team that certainly is not going to fall apart just because they're playing a night game at LSU. The key to this selection is that there has been much talk about how well the Tigers have played since the Auburn loss and the subsequent firing of head coach Les Miles. However, LSU has played Missouri and Ole Miss in SEC action and those teams are a combined 1-8 in conference games this season! The other game was a non-conference game for LSU and they faced Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are a C-USA team that had lost to UTSA by 23 points the prior week. The point is that LSU's "big" 3-0 run sans Miles has come against very weak opposition. On the season as a whole, Alabama has played a much tougher schedule than LSU has and the Tigers are facing a team that is better than they are on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide have won 5 straight in this series and they covered 4 of those 5 games. Also, Bama entered this season with this interesting stat in tow. They are 12-2 ATS when they are on the road off of a straight-up win and they are facing an opponent who is off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin. Lay the points while the masses are salivating at getting an over-rated LSU team as a home dog of a TD. The Tigers are a dog in this range for a reason and I smell a punishing road victory come in this one as it is Roll Tide Roll. 8* ALABAMA |
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11-05-16 | Florida State v. NC State +6.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CFB Game #346 Saturday - 8* NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7 ET - Even though NC State is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings with FSU, the Wolfpack have lost each of the last three meetings by double digit margins. That said, NC State is definitely hungry and wants to make the most of this opportunity to exact revenge at home. The Wolfpack are certainly catching Florida State at the perfect time to do just that. The Seminoles are off of a hard-fought emotionally draining loss to Clemson last week. It is hard to imagine the Noles having a lot left in the tank (mentally and physically) after suffering their third loss in the last six weeks. The Seminoles just haven't been able to get over the hump this season and they now face a Wolfpack team that has "nothing to lose" and will "leave it all on the field" in this one. Assuredly, the Noles are going to get NC State's best effort and the Wolfpack thrive in home games that are projected to be higher scoring. NC State has gone 13-6 SU and ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. Also, the Wolfpack are hosting a Seminoles team that is 0-3 ATS the last 3 times when it is a road game that follows playing Clemson. Hitting the road after the emotional loss to the Tigers, look for that run to go to 0-4 ATS. This situation favors NC State as they are playing a 2nd straight home game, off of a loss, and they are allowing only 95 rushing yards per game at home. Florida State is on an 8-14 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* NC STATE |
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11-05-16 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +12 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #402 Saturday - 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ Noon ET - Under head coach Kevin Sumlin, the Aggies typical late season fade at the betting window seems to be underway. Texas A & M has lost 4 straight games ATS as they head into a tough road match-up at Mississippi State. The Aggies last 3 seasons under Sumlin have seen them finish up on a 2-7 ATS run twice and a 1-6 ATS run once. That's a combined 5-20 ATS mark and this season, the Aggies are already on an 0-4 ATS run with four regular season games to go. As a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, Texas A & M is on a 1-6 ATS run the past 4 seasons combined. Both of these teams are strong on offense with question marks on defense. That said, I'll gladly grab the home dog that is getting double digits as the Aggies are still over-rated in my opinion. The Bulldogs are only 3-5 on the season but 4 of their 5 losses came by a TOTAL of just 13 points. Mississippi State is on an 8-4 ATS run as an underdog and they will turn this one into a dogfight in Starkville! The Bulldogs do have Alabama on deck but they know they need to win this to still have a shot at making a run at a bowl game and, surprisingly, they are on a 5-0 ATS run in games that are the week prior to facing the Crimson Tide. Look for that record to improve to 6-0 ATS Saturday. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
RARE Thursday TOP - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:25 ET - The Falcons have big time revenge on their minds here. Not only did they lose their season opener at home against the Buccaneers this season, Atlanta also lost both match-ups with the Bucs last season. The fact is we are getting line value here because this game is being played at Tampa Bay. That is helping to keep the chalk here much smaller than it would be if this game was being played in Atlanta. How much will home field help the Buccaneers here? Well, they allowed 626 yards to the Raiders here last week and they are on a 7-22 ATS skid as home dogs so I would say home field is unlikely to be a deciding factor in this one! Truly the Bucs defense has been shredded for much of this season because the only games where TB thrived on defense was when they faced some of the most anemic offenses in the league (SF, LA, and Denver yards per game very unimpressive). In Tampa's other 4 games they've allowed an average of 353 passing yards per game! Atlanta, #1 offense in the league, is going to shred the Bucs defense Thursday. The Falcons are averaging 33 points per game this season and the Buccaneers have been held to 24 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. The Falcons are on a 9-2 ATS run on Thursdays while the Bucs are 1-5 ATS in Thursday games. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS on the road this season and Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS at home this season. The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS as divisional dogs when facing an opponent who is seeking revenge. I fully expect Atlanta to get their revenge in a big way tonight and the systems above add to up a combined 27-4 (87%) ATS mark in favor of the Falcons. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS Thursday |
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11-03-16 | Buffalo +20 v. Ohio | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Thursday - 8* Buffalo Bulls (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The Bobcats are playing with revenge here as they lost at Buffalo by 24 points last season even though they were a 3-point favorite. However, simply put, this line is over-inflated for this early evening Thursday match-up. From a situational perspective it is not a great spot for Ohio as they are off of a huge win last Thursday at Toledo. They won by 5 as a 15 point dog and that was the Bobcats first win at The Glass Bowl in 50 years! Needless to say that could leave the Bobcats a little flat early in this game. Also, Ohio U. continues to have big issues at the QB position and that means they have to rely heavily on their ground game in this one and just allow their young QB to try and be a game manager and not make mistakes. That said, this is not the type of game where the Bobcats are likely to be able to run up the score. Also, the Bulls are only 2-6 on the season but both wins came as double digit dogs. Buffalo has some extra confidence after last week's win at Akron as a 19.5 point dog. The Bulls got their ground game going again as they rushed for 378 yards. Look for a steady dose of running from both teams in this one and the result should be a much closer game than many are expecting. Keep in mind, the Bobcats have not won a game by more than 16 points all season and, in MAC games, their biggest win was 10 points and their average margin of victory has been 6.3 points. Ohio U is likely to get the win here but not the cover. The Bulls are a young team and also now in their 2nd year of new systems under their coach. Last week's win over the Zips was a sign that this team is starting to put it together and, keep in mind, their ugly loss at Northern Illinois was fueled by turnovers. In their five prior games, the Bulls turned the ball over a TOTAL of just 3 times. 8* BUFFALO BULLS Thursday |
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11-02-16 | Toledo -10 v. Akron | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Wednesday - 8* Toledo Rockets (-) @ Akron Zips @ 7:30 ET - The Rockets are off of a rare loss and will respond huge Wednesday night. The Zips are off of a loss as well and also are excited about this home game opportunity on ESPN2. However, Akron is simply a mess right now. They've lost 2 of their last 3 games and have allowed an average of 330 rushing yards per game in those contests! That means Toledo should be able to run the ball at will in tonight's game and, of course, establishing the run allows a team to then have infinite possibilities to open up the playbook and attack through the air. The Rockets are averaging 347 passing yards per game this season so Akron's defense is in real trouble here. Toledo also is well known as road warriors. In games away from the Glass Bowl, the Rockets have gone 11-1 ATS their last 12! Toledo has straight up wins in 10 of their last 11 away from home! While the spread may seem sizable here, the Zips have been getting dominated statistically of late while the Rockets have been on the right end of the domination for much of this season. Also, Toledo is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 weekday road games and 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge against a sub-.600 opponent. The Rockets last played the Zips in their season finale of 2013 and that game was at Akron. Toledo lost the game by 2 points and that remains the only year out of the past 6 seasons that the Rockets have not made a bowl game. Trust me, they have not forgotten. It is time for payback Wednesday night and Akron is on a 2-8 ATS run when they are off of a straight-up loss as a favorite. They were a big road fave at Buffalo last week and yet lost the game by 3 TD's. That is a sign of things to come in this one as another blowout looms. The combined ATS mark of those 3 streaks noted above is 20-3 ATS in favor of the road team in this one. I'll take it! 8* TOLEDO ROCKETS Wednesday |
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11-01-16 | Bowling Green +17 v. Northern Illinois | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
Tuesday Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #301 Tuesday - 8* Bowling Green Falcons (+) @ Northern Illinois @ 8 ET - This line moved up from 15.5 to 17 and I completely understand the move as the Huskies are seeking revenge for December's loss to the Falcons. However, just because I understand the move doesn't mean I agree with it. Simply put, the points are too big here. Both teams are having tough seasons but the Falcons numbers really got skewed by horrible losses at Ohio State and Memphis. Bowling Green did get blown out in both of those games. However, in their other 6 games the Falcons allowed an average of 34.5 points per game while scoring an average of 26.3 points per game. They're facing a Northern Illinois team that is off of a blowout win over Buffalo. That 44-7 win over the Bulls is helping to give us an inflated line here. Prior to that game, the Huskies had allowed an average of 37.3 points per game and went 1-6 in those 7 games. You can see that Northern Illinois is truly nothing special this season and their defense has been just as bad as the Falcons defense. I don't see the Huskies as being able to create much of a margin in this game. These teams are very nearly equal and home field edge plus the revenge angle aren't enough of a factor to justify this huge line. Also, Bowling Green has a long-term mark of 19-9 ATS as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Northern Illinois is on a 5-9 ATS run in home games the past three seasons combined. The Huskies have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 home meetings with the Falcons. 8* BOWLING GREEN Tuesday |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears +5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
21-0, 100% System Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #274 Monday - 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - The Vikings will be looking to respond off of a loss but, for the Bears, this is basically their "Super Bowl" for the season. It is their final appearance on Monday Night Football for the season and they are at home and they are hosting a division rival. Considering Chicago is off to a 1-6 start this season, this is one of the few opportunities they will have to "make some noise" the rest of the year. Look for the Bears to make the most of this opportunity and many will be surprised to hear this but, despite averaging less points than the Vikings, the Chicago offense is averaging 50 yards more per game than the Minnesota offense so far this season. Also, the Bears defense has not been as bad as the points per game would lead you to believe. Chicago is allowing only 350 yards per game. By comparison, the Vikings defense (arguably the best in the league) is allowing 280 yards per game. The point is that, from a statistical standpoint these teams are not as far apart as you may think at first glance. The Bears also have the home field edge here and I expect QB Jay Cutler to make the most of this second opportunity after Chicago QB Brian Hoyer suffered a broken arm. The Bears have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with Minnesota in Chicago and the two losses came by just 3 points apiece. Simply put, the Vikings have not enjoyed recent trips to Chicago and I don't expect that to change Monday night either. Chicago is 12-0 ATS as a home dog of 4 or more points when they are off of consecutive straight-up losses. The Bears also have the scheduling edge here as they are off of a Thursday night game so they have extra rest coming into this one and they also have a bye week on deck. The Vikings are 0-9 ATS as a road favorite when they are off of a straight-up loss as a favorite! The Vikes did cover in a big win over the Giants in MNF earlier this month but they are still on just a 1-7 ATS run in Monday Night football match-ups as they previously had failed to cover in 7 straight MNF games. Look for another Monday Night ATS loss here for Minny as we test the combined 21-0 ATS runs that are in play for this one (12-0 for the Bears and 9-0 against Minnesota). 8* CHICAGO |
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10-30-16 | Eagles +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Primetime Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - Anything that changes a team momentum is a problem when that momentum was positive. Earlier this season we saw the Eagles start the year 3-0 and the electric start was culminated with a dominating win over the Steelers and that was when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. After that game, the Eagles then lost a heartbreaker late at Detroit. That seemed to change their momentum as the very next week they were "flat" for their game against a division rival - the Redskins - and, of course, that is completely inexcusable. The Eagles responded the next week with another dominating effort (21-10 over Minnesota) and needless to say, Philly learned their lesson. That said, there is no way they're going to come out flat again versus a divisional foe. This is a key primetime match-up that brings out the best in teams and Philadelphia knows they can ill afford dropping into a 0-2 hole in divisional games. The Cowboys have now rattled off 5 straight wins (and 5 straight covers) so what possibly could be the problem? Besides the fact that the Eagles (when motivated) have won 4 games all by double digits and by an average margin of 19 points, the Cowboys had a momentum-killing bye week. When a team is struggling they relish a bye week to get back on track but truly the bye week at this time was the last thing Dallas needed. The Cowboys also have gone from being a 4 point fave here to as high as a 5.5 as of mid-morning on gameday. This is a Dallas team that on a 7-19 ATS run as a divisional home favorite while the Eagles are on a 15-3 ATS run as a divisional road dog! The visitor has won each of the last 6 meetings between these teams so home field has not meant much at all in recent meetings between these teams and yet Dallas is attracting a lot of attention in this match-up. The Eagles have not turned the ball over in 4 of their 6 games this season and their defense has been one of the best in the league with only 307 yards allowed per game. Only once did Philly allow more than 222 yards passing in a game. Dallas has allowed 294 yards or more through the air in 3 of their last 5 games. The Cowboys are on a 0-9-1 ATS run when they are favored against an NFC team that has a winning percentage of .666 or better. Head coach Jason Garrett has a 2-11 ATS mark as a home favorite when facing an opponent off of a SU win. Garrett also is 1-7 ATS as a fave of 3 or more points against a team with a winning record. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-30-16 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | 32-33 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
NFL Value Special - Rickenbach NFL Game #254 Sunday - 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Falcons are off of a tough home loss (in OT!) as they allowed the Chargers to battle back from a 17 point deficit. Prior to this loss, the Falcons also suffered a tough 2 point loss at Seattle. Needless to say, the Falcons are now feeling their backs are against the wall and this is an Atlanta team that that has the top offense in the league as QB Matt Ryan continues to dominate. The Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers just haven't been the same on offense this season. Though they did put up big numbers last week that was against the Bears (Chicago is now 1-6 on the season) and I don't see Green Bay as being able to keep up with a fired up Atlanta team here that has the most explosive offense in the league. The Falcons, even after last week's defeat, are on a 7-3 ATS run. The Packers, on the road for the first time in six weeks, have only covered once the last 9 times they have been a road dog. Green Bay has also suffered a straight-up loss in 5 of their last 6 games played in a dome and with how low the money line is here, taking the Falcons just to win this game is an option. 8* ATLANTA |
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10-30-16 | Chargers v. Broncos -3.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #268 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:05 ET - This line has dropped from a -6.5 to a -3.5 as of early Sunday morning and it is now "go time" with Denver in this one. The Broncos have one of the top defenses in the league. They also are #1 in the league for sack percentage at 10.7% and the Chargers do struggle to protect QB Philip Rivers. I have all the respect in the world for Rivers but he's in for a tough outing. We all say what happened Monday night when Denver "wanted it" against Houston and now we're going to see what happens when the Broncos "want it" against the Chargers. This is a revenge game for Denver and they outgained the Bolts by 40 yards in San Diego but managed to lose the game by 8 points. It's time for a little payback and, with the ground game going again (190 rushing yards versus Houston in MNF) and with the defense having held Rivers and Co to just 166 passing yards in the first match-up, there is no reason in the world this line should have dropped as much as it did. Time to step in and take advantage. The Chargers are off of their huge come-from-behind win at Atlanta last week (trailed Falcons by 17 in 2nd quarter) and won't have enough left in the tank to take down the Broncos a 2nd time in 18 days. Denver is on a 20-9 ATS run in AFC West games. The Broncos entered this season 7-0 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional game and facing a team off of an upset win as an underdog. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS as divisional dogs when they are off of a SU win as a dog. The Broncos defense has not allowed more than 23 points all season long. The Chargers defense has allowed 30 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Denver 30, San Diego 23 gets us the cash here but I expect an even much bigger margin of victory here and that's why this is a Top Play for me. With the line move, the better defense, and a resurgent ground game there is huge value with the Broncos here. 10* DENVER |
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10-30-16 | Patriots v. Bills +6.5 | 41-25 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
1 of 3 on Early NFL 3-pack - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday - 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs New England Patriots @ 1 ET - I am completely aware of the revenge aspect here for the Patriots as their only loss this season came versus the Bills in a 16-0 shutout at Foxboro the week before Brady came back. However, this line is simply inflated given the way the Bills have been playing. Buffalo had won four straight games before losing at Miami last week where they fell short by a field goal. The Bills are facing a Patriots team that has won 3 straight games since Brady is back under center. However, Buffalo is a surprising 5-0 ATS when they are facing an opponent who is seeking revenge and is off back to back wins. The Patriots are 2-7 ATS when favored by more than 4 points on the road and facing an AFC opponent. Both of those ATS wins actually came during the Pats 3-game winning streak since the loss to the Bills. However, it is certainly noteworthy that they came against a Browns team that is now 0-7 on the season and a Steelers team that was without Roethlisberger. Even without Big Ben, Pittsburgh did outgain the Patriots last week so the 27-16 win for New England certainly was a fortunate cover for New England. Bills head coach Rex Ryan has the quite the rivalry with Pats head coach Bill Belichick and 5 of the last 6 meetings when Ryan was with the Jets were decided by 3 points or less. The two last year, Ryan with Bills, both were decided by 8 points or less. Look for another tight battle and the points here, if even needed, will be enough for the cover. 8* BUFFALO Sunday |
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10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints +2.5 | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
1 of 3 on Early NFL 3-pack - Rickenbach NFL Game #258 Sunday - 8* New Orleans Saints (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - Seattle is off of their miracle tie at Arizona last week as the Cardinals outgained the Seahawks by nearly 200 yards and had every opportunity to win that game. Now Seattle heads further south and east to take on a New Orleans team that was the opposite of the lucky Seahawks last week. The Saints got burned by a tight loss at Kansas City as they outgained the Chiefs by nearly 150 yards but came up just short on the scoreboard. These results are helping to offer some line value this week as the scoreboard was not indicative of how the games really played out for these teams last week. Of course the Seahawks have the superior defense in this match-up but how much will they have left in the tank after batting for FIVE full quarters in last week's tie? As for the Saints, they definitely have the superior offense and New Orleans has been especially strong at home where they've averaged 36 points and 501 yards per game this season. The Saints are on an 11-3 ATS run as a dog. The Seahawks are on a 1-4 ATS run against NFC South foes. New Orleans is on a 7-0 ATS run against teams with a winning percentage of .666 or greater. Look for the Saints to get the upset here but grab the points. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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10-30-16 | Chiefs v. Colts +3 | 30-14 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
1 of 3 on Early NFL 3-pack - Rickenbach NFL Game #266 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Indianapolis is on an incredible 10-0 ATS run as a home dog and 9 of those 10 wins were outright upsets. The Colts should be in line for another one here as they take on a Chiefs team that was fortunate to get past the Saints last week and that game was at Arrowhead Stadium. KC was outgained by a 463 to 326 margin and first downs were 27 to 20 in favor of New Orleans. The Chiefs struggling offense is unlikely to keep up with the Colts dynamic offense in this one. Andrew Luck threw for 3 TDs last week and 353 yards against a Titans team that is actually a solid defensive club. One of the weaknesses for Indianapolis this season is pass protection but the Chiefs defense ranks near the bottom of the league in terms of percentage of sacks (3.6%) on pass plays. Indy is 10-3 SU and ATS when off of a divisional game. Also, the Colts are on a 4-1 ATS run against AFC West opponents. Kansas City is 2-4 SU and ATS in their last 6 games on turf and simply won't be able to keep up with the speedy Colts offense here. Indy is an amazing 9-0 ATS when they are at home off of a divisional game and facing an opponent who has a winning percentage of .600 or better on the season. Look for the Colts to make it 10 in a row early Sunday. 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-29-16 | Clemson -4 v. Florida State | 37-34 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #149 Saturday - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 8 ET - Though some of the "luster" has been taken off of this match-up because of the Seminoles having two losses on the season, it is still a big game. Certainly it is an important game to QB Deshaun Watson and the Tigers. Watson remembers his first game here (a loss in OT two years ago) and is seeking payback. Losses have been few and far between for Watson as the starting QB at Clemson and last year's home win over the Noles certainly was satisfying but a win at Tallahassee to make up for the last trip here is still a key goal for Watson and Company. The bye week helped them to get healthy too. Even though Florida State is also off of a bye week, the Noles are on an 0-4 ATS run when off of a bye week. Conversely, the Tigers are on a 3-1 ATS run when playing with two or more weeks of rest between games. Clemson is also 16-2 SU (and 12-6 ATS) in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. The Noles are a subpar 7-10 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Tigers hold an 8-3 ATS mark in the last 11 games against FSU and home field hasn't been an advantage at the betting window. In fact, the road team has gotten the cash in 4 straight meetings between these teams. The Noles pass defense has been a surprising weakness for Florida State this season and Watson will take advantage. The Tigers have averaged 300 passing yards per game in the last two meetings with the Seminoles and they also ran for over 200 yards in last year's game. Having RB Wayne Gallman back healthy (thanks to the bye week) is a big plus for Clemson this week. Look for the Tigers to roll on the road as Clemson is battle-tested and has proven they can come up big at crunch time. The same can truly not be said for FSU who got blasted at Louisville, had to have a huge rally to beat Ole Miss, and lost at home to UNC. 8* CLEMSON TIGERS Saturday |
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10-29-16 | Auburn v. Ole Miss +5 | Top | 40-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #180 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs Auburn Tigers @ 7:15 ET - As long-time followers know, I like to be a contrarian. The very first numbers that popped up on this game when the lines came out mid-day Sunday showed Ole Miss as a -1.5 favorite! Now, as of early Saturday morning, the line is all the way up to -5 on Auburn. That is a swing of nearly a full TD on this line. Of course I completely understand the move. The Tigers have been moving the ball extremely well on the ground and the Rebels have been struggling to stop the run. Also, Ole Miss has been known for 2nd half struggles so far this season while Auburn has been dominating teams of late. With all that said, every week is a new week and Ole Miss is now at home, in a must win spot, and they are catching Auburn off of an easy win that will have them overconfident. I would not be surprised to see the Rebels get the upset in Oxford Saturday evening but certainly am grabbing the generous points being offered. Ole Miss, before last week's poor effort on the road, had been 6-0 ATS when they were an underdog off of a SU loss. Though that streak suffered a loss last week, look for the Rebels to bounce back big at home. The defense of Mississippi is tired of hearing all about their shortcomings and not being able to stop the run. When you are at home, off of back to back road losses, and constantly being told about an inability to do something, you often will step up the very next change you get. Make no mistake about it, the Rebels at home are fired up for this game and the defense is going to be flying all over the field. I know Auburn has looked great of late. I won't deny that. However, the Tigers beat LSU before they fired Les Miles. They were struggling under Miles. Then, Auburn's other wins during this streak included beating a Sun Belt team (UL Monroe) and a Mississippi State team that is now 2-5 on the season. Yes, the Tigers flattened Arkansas last week but that is one game. The point is that Auburn's 4-game winning streak is impressive but has a couple of asterisks on it and I can guarantee you that Ole Miss is not going to "hand this game" to the Tigers! I look for the Rebels to play their best game of the season and this is a team that is averaging 37 points per game on the season. Also, Mississippi is on a 15-3 SU (and 13-5 ATS) run in home games. In games played on turf the Rebels are on a 37-18 ATS run. Look for the Tigers to drop to 1-9 ATS their last 10 in games the week before facing Vandy. Also, Auburn was 2-8 ATS in regular season non-home games before getting that road win and cover at Mississippi State three weeks ago. The point is that they are not exactly road warriors and yet they are being bet like they are this week. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side and I expect an upset but will take the generous points. 10* OLE MISS REBELS Saturday |
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10-29-16 | Baylor -3.5 v. Texas | 34-35 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Watch-n-Win Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #159 Saturday - 8* Baylor Bears (-) @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - This has become an intense rivalry in Texas as Baylor's football program has improved through the years. The Bears use to be the punching bag of the Longhorns but that all changed 6 years ago when Baylor went into Austin and beat the Horns in 2010. That began a 4-1 run in this series for Baylor but they then lost last year's match-up in Waco. Keep in mind that was one of just 3 homes losses the Bears have had since the 2011 season began! The point is that you can bet Baylor hasn't forgotten that defeat and the boxscore shows what happened. Despite a 479-307 yardage edge the Bears had, Baylor lost due to a 4-0 turnover deficit. Now Baylor heads into Austin this season with a 6-0 record on the season. I am well aware of the fact that the Longhorns (3-4 on the season) have played a tougher schedule this season. However, the Horns 3 wins came against team that have a combined 5-16 record on the season! Their 4 losses were to solid teams but not necessarily powerhouses. Texas has lost two games to teams that are now 5-2 on the season and two games to teams that are now 4-3 on the season. The Longhorn defense is a disaster this season and they're facing a Baylor team that is ranked among top teams in the country on BOTH sides of the ball. The road team has taken each of the last two meetings between these nearby rivals and I look for that trend to continue Saturday. Baylor has fresh legs (off of their bye week) and they've gone 6-1 SU with rest and only failed to cover in 2 of those 7 games. Also, the Bears entered this season with an 8-0 ATS mark in games where they are favored by less than 14 points against a sub-.500 opponent. You can tell by the O/U on this game that a lot of points are expected and I expect Texas to fail to keep up in this one. The Longhorns are 0-3 ATS in home games with a posted total of 70 points or more. The Bears offense will prove to be too much. 8* BAYLOR BEARS Saturday |
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10-28-16 | Navy v. South Florida -6.5 | 45-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #114 Friday - 8* South Florida Bulls (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7 ET - The Bulls got embarrassed at Temple last Friday. That 16 point defeat has the South Florida defense ready to respond in a huge way. With a bye week on deck for USF, they've had full focus and full energy into preparing for slowing down Navy's triple option attack. The Bulls were not successful in doing so last season but that was their first look. Now they get a shot at revenge and they get that opportunity at home where they made a huge run last season and they look to do the same this season. Keep in mind USF, in earning a bowl bid last season, rallied for a 7-1 finish last year (both SU and ATS) and that included a perfect 4-0 mark (both SU and ATS) at home. The Bulls were off to a 6-1 start this season before last week's ugly effort against the Owls. They will respond this week. This is a quality football team that had gone 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 regular season games prior to their inexcusable effort at Temple. The Bulls will have more intensity this week, will maintain gap coverage on defense, wrap up their tackles better, and have an all-around much stronger effort as they look to avenge last year's loss to Navy. Note that USF is on a 10-4 ATS run as a favorite (and went 13-1 SU in those games). With this line dipping down to 6.5 (was as high as 8.5) it is "go time" with this one. The Midshipmen have a huge game on deck with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish handed the Middies one of only two losses last season. Navy already got revenge (Houston) for their other loss last season and they certainly could get caught peeking ahead to the big match-up with ND next week while, as noted above, the Bulls have a bye on deck and are fully focused off of an ugly loss. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
26-0, 100% System Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 - 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 8:25 ET Thursday - Ever since Gus Bradley took over as head coach in Jacksonville, the Jaguars have never failed to cover a game against the Titans. It has been a 4-0-2 ATS run in this series. The Jags have gone 3-3 SU with the 3 wins including a 6 point win and 8 point win and, as for the 3 losses, the Jaguars have never lost by more than 4 points to Tennessee since Bradley became the head coach. That certainly puts this one well into the "play range" as there is value with grabbing the points here. The Titans aren't known for blowing teams out as 2 of their 3 wins this season came by 2 points or less. That means that out of all 7 of their games this season they have only won a game by more than 2 points one time. As for the Jaguars, they had won two straight games before last week's ugly loss but look closely at that defeat last week. The Jags lost by 17 but the yardage was dead even at 344 for the Jaguars and the Raiders. The difference was Jacksonville losing the turnover battle 3 to 0. Before that loss, the Jaguars were 2-3 on the season with the only blowout loss being at San Diego and that was also a turnover-driven final as the Jags outgained the Chargers 388 to 357 but lost the game by 24 points thanks in part to a 3-1 deficit in turnovers. The Titans have forced only one turnover in four home games this season so I don't expect that to be an issue for the Jaguars Thursday night. Also, Tennessee is wearing down as their bye week is not until early December. This is the Titans 5th game in 26 days whereas the Jaguars just had a bye week on the 9th of the month and will be the fresher team here. With last week's loss to the Colts, the Titans are now on a 1-8 ATS run as a favorite. Also, Tennessee is on a 1-12 ATS run in divisional games and they are disappointed about losing to another divisional foe, Indianapolis, for a 10th straight time Sunday! The Titans know they wasted a chance to solidify positioning in the standings and it is often tough to bounce back mentally after a game like that. I look for Tennessee to again struggle here. Jacksonville, in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points has failed to cover just twice in eight games! Also, there is a perfect system we are testing here. The Jaguars are 9-0 ATS when they are on the road off of an ATS loss by double digits and they are facing an opponent who is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Titans are on an 0-10 ATS run when facing a division opponent who is playing with revenge (Jags lost here in last meeting of 2015). That means we are testing a 26-0, 100% ATS combined systems record here! One final note to tighten this one up even more: Tennessee entered this season with a 1-14 ATS mark when facing an opponent who is off of a loss by a double digit margin. With the Jags off of the ugly home loss to Oakland Sunday, they are the play in full bounce back mode here in this weeknight affair. 10* JACKSONVILLE Thursday Night |
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10-27-16 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh +3.5 | 39-36 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CFB Game #108 Thursday - 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - Deservedly, the Hokies get a lot of positive press for their defense. However, if you look at their last 4 games, Virginia Tech has allowed at least 323 passing yards in 3 of the 4 games. The only exception was the game against North Carolina and that's because that game was played when Hurricane Matthew as pounding the area. In the other 3 games not impacted by weather, the Hokies have allowed an average of 363 passing yards per game. Of course, the Panthers are known for being a run-first team that likes to rely on the ground attack. However, Pittsburgh is off of their bye week and coach Pat Narduzzi is an excellent coach who has had extra time to prepare for this game. The Panthers will continue to "pound on the ground" but don't be surprise if they have the playbook on offense opened up a little bit more for this "must win" game in the ACC Coastal Division. Pittsburgh has averaged nearly 200 passing yards per game in their last 5 games. Also, on the ground, the Panthers have averaged 264.5 rushing yards per game their last 6 games. The last time Virginia Tech was off of a big win (34-3 over North Carolina covered spread by 28 points) they then got upset at Syracuse the very next week. The Hokies, when off of a win where they covered the spread by 14 points or more, are on a 2-8 ATS run. Off of their huge win (37-16 as a 4.5 point fave over Miami) last week, look for Virginia Tech to come up short this week. The Panthers are rested and off of a bye and the Hokies get caught still celebrating a big win that moved them into the Top 25. Teams often get knocked off after games like this and certainly an outright upset for Pitt would not surprise but I am grabbing the points here. The Hokies are on a 4-10 ATS run as a road favorite and Pittsburgh has dominated this series with an 8-1 ATS run. The Panthers are also on a 4-1 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. 8* PITTSBURGH Thursday Night |
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10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos -8 | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
MNF Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Monday - 8* Denver Broncos (-) vs Houston Texans @ 8:30 ET - Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak was fired by the Texans late in the 2013 season. Needless to say this game carries special meaning for him. Houston QB Brock Osweiler spurned Denver for a big contract with the Texans in the off-season. At his news conference he said he felt this gave him the best chance to win. Keep in mind he went from a Super Bowl winner to a Houston franchise that hasn't won a playoff game since after the 2012 season. The Broncos are hungry to take their shots (literally) at Osweiler and company tonight. Not only is this a revenge game for coach Kubiak and his players, they also are very hungry to get back into the win column as they are coming off of back to back losses. One was a tight home loss to a surging Falcons team but the other was a road loss at San Diego (a game coach Kubiak missed). Denver plays well with extra rest. Earlier this season after a Thursday game they then blasted Indianapolis by 14 for a win and cover. The Broncos are now 8-1 ATS when off of a Thursday game. After the loss to the Chargers last Thursday, Denver is rested and ready to improve that mark to 9-1 ATS. Houston is on an ugly 1-7 ATS run in Monday night football as the Texans do not have a history of performing well under the lights. Remember they got embarrassed 27-0 at New England in a Thursday night game earlier this season. Though Houston got the win versus Indianapolis this past Sunday night, they had to rally from 14 points down with 3 minutes to go in the game. The Texans got the shocking win in overtime but this is not the Colts at home they are facing. Rather, this is the Broncos in Denver and I am expecting a blowout loss here because Denver won't hesitate to pile up the points here if given the opportunity. They hate Osweiler and Kubiak hates Houston. They also are fired up because they are off of rare back to back losses. That just doesn't happen much with the Broncos! In fact, this is just the 4th time it has happened dating back to 2012. The result the first three times? A perfect 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 12 points per game. This one has the makings of a big-time blowout. 8* DENVER BRONCOS Monday |
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10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1 | 6-6 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #476 Sunday - 8* Arizona Cardinals (-1 or Pick'em) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - After some inconsistent play early this season, the Cardinals finally were able to put together back to back strong performances and they enter Sunday's huge divisional showdown off of consecutive wins. The Cardinals will have the Sunday night lights at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona tonight and they have revenge on their minds here. Seattle has won all three games at Arizona since Bruce Arians has been the head coach. Not only that, the Cardinals (and Arians!) have been embarrassed by a combined score of 105 to 34 in those games. Needless to say, the Cardinals have revenge and payback on their minds here. One thing going in their favor is that the Seahawks have struggled at times with their revamped offensive line and the departure of Marshawn Lynch. The running game is not as consistent as it once was and neither is the pass protection. The Seahawks were fortunate to get the win over Atlanta last week as a late non-call in a penalty situation certainly played a role in the final outcome. The Seahawks did fail to get the cover and are now 2-7 ATS in games played in weeks 5 through 9. This lull in the 2nd quarter of the season could creep up again as they barely got by the Falcons last week and now face a revenge-minded Arizona team trying to build on their first winning streak of the season. The Cardinals tend to thrive in games like this as they are 10-2 SU (and 9-3 ATS) in their last dozen games where the line is a field goal or less whether they are the favorite or the dog. Also, unlike the Hawks, this is the Cards time of year as they have gone 9-2 SU (and 8-3 ATS) in weeks 5 through 9. It is time for the Cardinals to finally 'get one' at home against the Seahawks. The Cards haven't forgotten last season's 36-6 embarrassing home loss. 8* ARIZONA CARDINALS |
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10-23-16 | Patriots v. Steelers +7.5 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 Sunday - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Yes, the Patriots are off of back to back dominating wins since Tom Brady returned. However, those teams are a combined 2-10 on the season. Yes, the Steelers are without Ben Roethlisberger today. However, they are also a quality team that was 4-1 this season before he got hurt during the loss at Miami last week that dropped Pittsburgh to 4-2 on the season. The point is that this is still a quality Steelers team and QB Landry Jones has had ample time now to prepare as the starter for this game. After their first loss this season the Steelers responded by blasting the Chiefs 43 to 14. Granted, the Patriots certainly are not the Chiefs but, keep in mind, the Steelers don't have to blast the Pats to get the money for us here. In fact, they don't even have to win the game. All they have to do is remain competitive throughout this game and I absolutely see that happening after last week's embarrassing loss. The Steelers overall numbers on defense do not impress but they have certainly shown a lot of "bend but don't break" D this season. That is why Pittsburgh has allowed 16 points or less in all 4 of their wins! The Steelers normally are at their best against quality opposition and, in fact, have gone 12-3 SU in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The Patriots win at Cleveland two weeks ago was the first time they've covered as a favorite of more than 4 points in a road game against against an AFC foe in quite some time. Their record in that situation is now 1-7 ATS their last 8 and this is a large spread for the Pats on the road against a quality AFC opponent. The Steelers are undervalued here. Grab the home dog. 10* PITTSBURGH STEELERS |
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10-23-16 | Chargers v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conf NFL Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #470 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons -4.5 vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:05 ET - The Falcons continue to be under-valued and this is a another nice spot to back them as they are hungry off of a tight loss. I rode Atlanta against last week, after having them the week before in their outright win at Denver, and the Falcons were robbed on a late non-call that should have been a penalty. Atlanta still got the cash for me but that cost ATL the outright win. Still, the good news is that means the Falcons will be extra hungry this week and they have covered 5 in a row. I have ridden Atlanta with either a star rated pick or free pick each of their last 4 games so I have been in on a good portion of this hot streak and I see no reason why it won't continue here. The Chargers are off of a huge upset win over Denver and that could leave them flat here. They've lost 8 of their last 9 games with the Falcons and they've also lost 10 fumbles already this season. San Diego has trouble closing out games and Atlanta is the #1 offense in the league. I just don't see the Chargers being able to keep up in this one as they've averaged 3 turnovers per game the last 4 weeks and the Falcons have only averaged 0.83 turnovers per game on the season! Atlanta's strength, Matt Ryan and the passing attack, goes right at the heart of the Chargers main weakness which is pass defense. The Chargers are on a 1-5 ATS run when playing away after a Thursday game and this is also a tough trip as it is an East Coast trip to a non-conference foe and the situation is made even tougher after coming off of a big divisional home win. I don't expect the Chargers to have much left in the tank to match the high emotions of a Falcons team that is still steaming mad from what happened last week. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS |
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10-23-16 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | 25-28 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #461 Sunday - 8* Buffalo Bills -2.5 @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - The Dolphins are off of a huge win versus the Steelers last week. After a 15 point win as a 7 point underdog, it can be tough to duplicate the effort. Undoubtedly Miami left a lot on the field in that huge win last week and that ATS victory was preceded by 4 straight non-covers. Also, that was just the 2nd win of the season for the Dolphins. The Bills have been at the other end of the spectrum as they come into this game off of 4 straight wins and they covered the spread in each of those victories. While Buffalo has turned the ball over only 4 times this season, the Dolphins, prior to last week's surprising win, had 11 turnovers in their past 4 games. The Bills have won 5 of the last 6 meetings with Miami and RB LeSean McCoy (3 TDs last week) has had his injury status upgraded to probable for this game. The Dolphins are on a 1-9 ATS run in divisional games while Buffalo is on a 14-6 ATS run in AFC East games and certainly is on a power surge right now. With the small road price here on the much better team, I won't hesitate to step in. 8* BUFFALO BILLS |
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10-23-16 | Ravens +2.5 v. Jets | 16-24 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #467 Sunday - 8* Baltimore Ravens +2.5 @ New York Jets @ 1 ET - The Ravens certainly have been "snakebit" in terms of getting covers. It dates back to last season when they had a 5-11 straight-up record and also only covered 5 of their 16 games ATS. This season, the Ravens are on a tough ATS streak after losing on a 4th and 1 play to the Giants last week as that short yardage play turned into a game-winning "catch and run" TD for Odell Beckham Jr. The key to this play today is we shouldn't have to worry about the spread (although I'll gladly grab the 2.5 points being offered) as Baltimore should take this one outright. The Ravens visit a Jets team that not only has lost 4 straight but has been getting hammered in each game. New York has lost each of their last 4 games by a double digit margin and the Jets have only produced an average of 9 points per game during this 4 game losing streak. With QB Joe Flacco listed as probable now for the Ravens, and with Baltimore having totaled at least 282 passing yards in 3 of their last 5 games, I just don't see the Jets keeping up in this game. New York is sinking fast in the AFC East while the Ravens, especially with the fact that the Steelers Roethlisberger is going to miss some time, know they can keep pace in the AFC North with a win today. With a bye on deck and fully motivated after last week's late loss here at the Meadowlands (against the Giants), look for the Ravens to pull the road "upset" here. As a home favorite of 3 points or less, the Jets have gone 0-5 SU and ATS their last 5. The Ravens are on a 4-0 ATS run in games against AFC East teams. 8* BALTIMORE RAVENS |
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10-23-16 | Colts +3.5 v. Titans | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #465 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts +3.5 @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET Sunday - The Colts blew a game they never should of lost at Houston last week as they gave up 2 TD lead in the 4th quarter and then lost in OT. Also, Indianapolis definitely has been dealing with some injury issues. However, Indy is highly like to "rally the troops" this week at Tennessee. Facing the Titans means that the Colts get a 2nd straight shot against a key divisional foe and Indy can tie them in the standings with a win today. Houston has a tough match-up at Denver Monday night so the Colts know they are still much very alive in the watered-down AFC South and I look for Andrew Luck and Company to put it all together in an early "must-win" game. Waiting here has paid off as the line has moved all the way up to a 3.5 as of Sunday morning. Of course that is mostly due to the injuries the Colts have been dealing with. However, taking a look at the Titans, they are only 1-2 at home this season and that lone win came by only 2 points and that was against the lowly 0-6 Browns last week! The Titans certainly are the better defensive team in this match-up but the Colts have the much more productive offense. There is now a lot of line value here with the move from well below a 3 to now above 3. Tennessee hasn't exactly been a "covering machine" as, in fact, the Titans are on an ugly 2-11 SU (and 1-11-1 ATS) run in divisional games! The Colts have won 10 of their last 14 divisional games and, even with last week's tough push ATS, they are on a 9-2-1 ATS run in weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons combined. The value is with the dog here as, keep in mind, the Colts only have 1 loss by more than 4 points so far this season and the Titans only have one win by more than 2 points this season. Look for the Colts to defeat the Titans a 9th straight time but I will grab the generous points here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS |
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10-22-16 | Ole Miss +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #399 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) @ LSU @ 9 ET - LSU is in a perfect "play against" spot here. The Tigers certainly have revenge on their minds as they lost badly at Ole Miss last year. However, LSU is simply overvalued in this spot. They have gone from being a 4 point favorite to laying more than a TD in this match-up and that is offering great value to the talented underdog in this match-up. There is a lot of chatter about how great LSU has played since they fired Les Miles after losing to Auburn. However, the Tigers have played only Missouri and Southern Miss since the dismissal of Miles. Missouri is 0-3 in SEC action and has one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Southern Miss is a CUSA team that, other than wins over an FCS school and a 1-6 UTEP team, has allowed 40 points per game in their other 5 games! Ole Miss certainly does not have a great defense but they have forced 7 turnovers in their past three games and the Rebels do have a dynamic offense. This combination has helped lead the way to a 3-2 run their last 5 games and the two losses each came by 5 points or less and one of those was to #1 ranked Alabama. The point is that the Rebels can hang with anybody and I am not convinced that LSU is "back" just because they beat up on two over-matched opponents. Ole Miss is on a 6-2 ATS run as an away dog and 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less. The Rebels are also a PERFECT 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog in a game following a SU loss. After losing to Arkansas last week, the Rebels get the job done this week. 10* OLE MISS |
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10-22-16 | Old Dominion +14 v. Western Kentucky | 24-59 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Bargain Hunter - Rickenbach CFB Game #385 Saturday - 8* Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ 7 ET - Western Kentucky has gotten the win and cover in each of the first two meetings between these teams - 2014 and 2015. However, both games were very tight to the number and both times the Hilltoppers truly were fortunate to get the cover. Look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the hungry Monarchs in this one. Old Dominion is off of their bye week and they had 3 straight wins prior to the bye. They are rested and confident as they piled up over 500 yards of offense in their win over UMass before the bye. The Monarchs are averaging 483 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and they catch Western Kentucky off of a grueling double-OT win over Middle Tennessee State. The Hilltoppers were outgained by 84 yards in that game. Western Kentucky has had a knack for tight games this season. The exceptions were a blowout win over Rice (but the Owls are the only remaining winless FBS team) and a blowout loss to Alabama (but they are #1 team in the country) and a blowout win over an FCS team. Of course Old Dominion doesn't fall into any of those categories and I expect another tight Hilltopper game decided by just a single possession. With Western Kentucky off of back to back emotional road games and the Monarchs are off of their bye and buoyed by the return of RB Ray Lawry in their most recent game, this one could be an upset. The Hilltoppers just do not have a solid defense and Lawry and fellow RB Jeremy Cox will keep pounding away on the ground while QB David Washington (12 TDs, only 2 INTs) keeps the defense honest. The Monarchs can put up points in a hurry and they are 4-1 ATS in road games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 8* OLD DOMINION |
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10-22-16 | TCU v. West Virginia -6 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Game #326 Saturday - 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - TCU is not the team it used to be and a lot of that has to do with a defense that just isn't what it once was. The Horned Frogs are allowing 30 points per game this season and their D ranks 86th in the nation. The Mountaineers have flexed their muscles on D with a "bend but don't break" defense that has allowed only 19.4 points per game on the season. Last week, West Virginia was very impressive in holding a dangerous Texas Tech offense (one of the best in the nation) to only 379 yards in a dominating 48 to 17 win. While it may seem that the Mountaineers could be flat off such a big win, the fact is that this is West Virginia's only home game between October 1st and November 5th. In other words, they certainly are going to bring their strongest effort for this one and they also have revenge on their minds as the Mountaineers lost 40-10 at TCU last year and also were defeated by a single point here at home in 2014 when they last hosted the Horned Frogs. West Virginia is 7-3 SU and ATS when off of a win against a conference foe. TCU was outgained by a pathetic Kansas team last week by a 470 to 366 margin. The Horned Frogs only other road game was against a weak SMU team. Now facing their first tough road test of the season, TCU is likely to get blasted. 8* WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-22-16 | Wisconsin -3.5 v. Iowa | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Game #333 Saturday - 8* Wisconsin Badgers -3.5 @ Iowa @ Noon ET - Even though the Badgers are off of a hard-fought OT loss versus Ohio State last week, they have their sights set on revenge here as they suffered a home loss to Iowa last season. The Hawkeyes are currently over-valued in my opinion as they have played a much weaker schedule in comparison with Wisconsin. While the Badgers have played the likes of Michigan and the Buckeyes in their past two games (both teams are 6-0 on the season), Iowa has played much weaker Big Ten teams like Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue. The Hawkeyes are on a 6-12 ATS run in home games. The Badgers are on a 9-5 ATS run in their games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin really got their offense going last week (450 yards) against a tough Ohio State team last week and the Badgers have one of the top defenses in the nation. Look for the road fave to get their revenge as the road team has won 5 straight games in this series. I expect 6 in a row after today's game is in the books. 8* WISCONSIN |
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10-22-16 | NC State +20 v. Louisville | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Game #337 Saturday - 8* NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Louisville Cardinals @ Noon ET - The combination of the loss to Clemson and the bye week seemed to take the air out of the sails of this Cardinals team as they did not impress versus Duke last week. Louisville came nowhere close to covering in that game and they did not force a turnover. Even though the Cardinals only turned the ball over once versus the Blue Devils, the Cards had turned the ball over at least 3 times in 4 of their 5 prior games. That could be an issue here against an opportunistic Wolfpack defense that has forced 7 turnovers in their past two games. NC State is seeking revenge here for a home loss to Louisville last year. The Wolfpack have lost the two meetings by a combined total of 19 points the past two seasons and yet, with money pouring in on Louisville for this game, the spread is now up to 20 on this game. This is offering big dog value to an NC State team that is allowing only 18.7 points per game this season. That is nearly a full TD less than what Louisville is allowing on the season. Certainly the Cardinals are the better team here but, the point is, it may be tough for them to get a big margin in this game. NC State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games played on turf. Louisville has a road game at Virginia on deck which certainly may not seem like a big deal but they did lose their last trip to Virginia. That said, they may start peeking ahead to that road game as this one goes on and I don't expect this game to be decided by anything more than a 2 TD margin. The Cardinals are on a 2-6 ATS run as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* NC STATE |
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10-21-16 | South Florida -6.5 v. Temple | 30-46 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Early ESPN Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday - 8* South Florida Bulls (-) @ Temple Owls @ 7 ET - Even though the Bulls failed to cover versus Connecticut Saturday, it truly was a dominating effort as they outgained the Huskies by 151 yards in the 15 point win. South Florida hurt themselves with 4 turnovers but that was very unusual as they had averaged just 1 turnover per game in their first 6 games this season. In other words, one shouldn't expect a repeat of that this week for USF. However, as for Temple, they have struggled all season with turnovers. The Owls are off of a very fortunate win as they got the winning TD with just 1 tick left on the clock. Temple turned the ball over twice in that game at Central Florida, but the Owls had already turned the ball over 3 times in a game in 3 of their 6 prior games. It's been a recurring theme for the Owls this season and they face a USF team that has faced a tougher schedule than Temple has and yet the Bulls offense is still averaging 128 yards more per game than the Owls are. South Florida crushed the Owls by 21 at home last season and, even though they are now facing them at Temple, the Bulls can roll again behind a potent offense. The Owls are 6-1 ATS this season and they were 9-3 ATS in regular season games last year. That continues to make Temple a popular choice and effects their pricing in the markets and, in this case, with the Bulls currently laying 6.5 in this game, the price has come down low enough to absolutely warrant a solid investment in USF. South Florida is on a 13-0 SU run as a favorite and they are 10-3 ATS in those games including 5-1 ATS this season. As a road favorite the Bulls are on a 4-1 ATS run. As for Temple, the Owls are on a long-term run of 15-97 SU against teams with a winning record. If you think that is only ancient history it is truly not as even the last 3 seasons combined they are only 5-9 SU against teams with a winning record. Temple will again struggle with facing a better team (Bulls have also faced the tougher schedule this season) and when USF failed to cover against the Huskies last week it broke a streak of 12-0 ATS in their last 12 SU wins. In other words, when the Bulls win, they nearly always cover. Look for the win and cover for the road fave in this one. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA Friday |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers -7.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:25 ET - Green Bay is off of an embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys Sunday. There is plenty of reason to believe that the Packers bounce back huge on Thursday night. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has an incredible record of 16-3 SU and ATS in divisional games when the Packers are off of an ATS loss. That's right, Rodgers and The Pack get the cover over 80% of the time in situations like this. Green Bay is motivated about much more than just the loss last week to Dallas. The Packers also haven't forgotten last season's Thursday night game against the Bears. Green Bay came into that game having won and covered each of their last four meetings with Chicago. The Packers were an 8 point favorite in that game and they not only failed to cover, they lost the game outright. Worse yet, it was a game on Thanksgiving Night and it was the game during which Brett Favre's number was retired at half-time! Green Bay is fired up about getting a little payback against a division rival and the Bears come in on a horrible skid as they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. The Packers are on a 10-5 ATS run in divisional home games where they are favored. Also, even with that Thanksgiving loss to Chicago, Green Bay is 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the Bears. Chicago is on a long-term 7-21 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The Packers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Packers need to bounce back here after last week's loss, the Bears struggles have continued, and the revenge angle is a BIG ONE for a hungry home team here. Lay it! 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS minus the points Thursday Night |
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10-20-16 | Miami (Fla) +6 v. Virginia Tech | 16-37 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 THURSDAY - 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The Canes are on a 4-1 ATS run the last 5 years in match-ups with the Hokies. Of course that featured head coach Al Golden versus head coach Frank Beamer. But that offers perhaps even more value to this match-up in terms of backing the Hurricanes. Miami replaced a struggling Al Golden with a head coach, Mark Richt, who had a 145-51 record heading into this season. Virginia Tech replaced a future Hall of Famer with a head coach, Justin Fuente, who had a 26-23 record heading into this season. That is no disrespect to Fuente rather it is just to show the two different situations these guys walked into and, with both teams off of disappointing efforts last week, it is more likely that Richt's Hurricanes bounce back. Miami has lost back to back games and they have not lost three straight since 2014. As for the Hokies, they are trying to avoid back to back losses but that is something that has yet to happen this season but happened on multiple occasions in both 2015 and 2014. The point is that the odds certainly favor that is the Canes who bounce back here. These teams have faced similar schedules this season in terms of strength of schedule and both teams have been solid on defense with only 4.2 yards per play allowed so far this season. The difference is in the offensive efficiency as Miami is one of the top teams in the nation with 7 yards per play while Virginia Tech ranks in the lower half of team in the nation with their offense producing only 5.5 yards per play. The Hokies defense also was helped statistically because they recently played North Carolina in horrible weather conditions because of Hurricane Matthew. Note that in their other recent games, Virginia Tech was scorched for 561 overall yards at Syracuse and 362 passing yards at the hands of East Carolina. Other than the game against the Tar Heels (D helped by poor weather conditions), the Hokies defense has faced 3 respectable opponents this season. In those games (Syracuse, East Carolina, and Tennessee), Virginia Tech has allowed an average of 31 points per game! As for Miami, they are allowing an average of only 14 points per game this season and the Hurricanes have not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season. Also, there have been 6 outright upsets in the last 13 meetings between these teams but certainly I am grabbing the points although an outright win would not be a big surprise. The Hokies are on a 5-10 ATS run as a home favorite and this line has climbed up to very near a full touchdown. The Hurricanes are on a 6-2 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. The Hokies are on an 0-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. 8* MIAMI HURRICANES plus the points early Thursday evening |
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10-17-16 | Jets +8 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday - 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:30 ET - The Jets have an ugly record on the season and the Cardinals are getting QB Carson Palmer back under center for this one. However, the keys to this match-up lie a little deeper in the details. The Jets have played a tougher schedule than have the Cards. Both teams faced the Bills but taking a look at the rest of their schedule, note that Arizona played New England when they were without Tom Brady and then their other three games have not featured a single team that currently has a winning record. As for New York, the Jets have lost three straight games (SU and ATS) but all 3 defeats came against teams that currently have a winning record on the season. In fact, those 3 teams have a combined 11-5 mark on the year. The other key to the value here with the Jets (currently priced at +7.5 in this game) is the fact that head coach Todd Bowles played under Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians when he was at Temple from '82 to '85. Also, Bowles was the defensive coordinator at Arizona (under HC Arians) in 2013 and 2014. There is a little extra motivation, to say the least, for Bowles in this match-up. Additionally, he has some additional knowledge of the Cardinals personnel from having recently coached there. In terms of trends in this match-up, note that Arizona is a long-term ugly 1-11 ATS in games where they are a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Also, the Cardinals are known for faltering on Monday night with an 0-6 ATS run in their last 6 and also they are off of a big Thursday night win over the 49'ers and they are on a 1-6 ATS run the week after facing San Francisco. Arizona also has a big divisional game on deck with Seattle so it is hard for the Cards not to look ahead here. The Jets are the hungrier, more motivated team here and they also are getting significant points which makes for excellent line value here. The Cardinals have some key injuries at the guard positions on the offensive line and the Jets have a strong defensive line and will win this game in the trenches. 10* NEW YORK JETS plus the big points in Monday Night Football |
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10-16-16 | Colts +3 v. Texans | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #275 Sunday - 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Houston Texans @ 8:30 ET - Very interesting match-up with the better offense and bad defense - Colts - taking on the stronger defense and weak offense - Texans. Certainly the Colts have had issues with pass protection but the Texans defense is definitely missing JJ Watt. So what is the key match-up in my opinion? It is simply Andrew Luck versus Brock Osweiler. In my opinion, there is no way I am taking Osweiler over Luck under the Sunday night lights. The Colts play-calling on offense will be predicated around the fact that the line is struggling to protect Luck. Therefore we could some quick handoffs and quick short passing routes or screen passes which will help keep Luck on his feet plus will help keep the Texans defense off balance. That said, I certainly look for Luck to be the one that "makes plays" in this game while Osweiler continues to struggle for the Texans. Indianapolis plays this game with revenge from a home loss to Houston last December. Prior to that defeat the Colts had won 23 of the last 27 meetings. The Colts are on a 9-2 ATS run in games played in weeks 5 through 9. The Texans are 0-3 SU and ATS in home games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Simply put, the Houston offense won't be able to keep up with Andrew Luck and Company in this one as the Colts get revenge for last December's home loss. 8* INDIANAPOLIS Sunday Night |
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10-16-16 | Cowboys v. Packers -4 | 30-16 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Blowout of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #274 Sunday - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Green Bay burned me a little last week as they had a big lead on the Giants and let up a little bit and then the Packers ended up being a "push" in their game last week for most even though they held New York to only 219 yards of offense. The Packers are still on a 19-9 ATS run as a non-divisional home favorite and they are known for giving Dallas trouble. Green Bay is on a 4-1 ATS run overall against the Cowboys and the Packers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at Lambeau Field hosting Dallas. The Packers are 6-0 ATS as home favorites against the NFC East. Green Bay is also 6-1 ATS when facing an opponent off of a straight-up dog win. The Cowboys definitely looked good in their outright upset win over the Bengals last week but this is their first game this season against a team with a winning record and Dallas is on a 4-8 ATS run in games against teams with an above .500 record. Also, the Cowboys are on a long-term 17-27 ATS run as road dogs in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Packers are on a 6-1 ATS run in games where they are a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points and also 5-0 ATS in home games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Combining those trends with the ones above favoring the Packers. we are testing a combined 28-3 ATS run in favor of the home fave. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday late afternoon |
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10-16-16 | Falcons +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Top Contrarian Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Seattle @ 4:25 ET - Seattle's defense looks great statistically so far this season. However, they have played some of the worst teams in terms of offensive production so far this year. Miami, LA, San Francisco, and the Jets are hardly a "who's who" of offensive powerhouses. That said, if any offense can march into CenturyLink Field and not be bothered by the noise in Seattle, it is Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Atlanta has the number one offense in the league this season and they have helped lead the way to a 4-1 start to the season for the Falcons. The other key to this play is the fact that Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator with the Seahawks in 2013 and 2014. This the first meeting between these teams since he's been gone from Seattle. You better believe that Quinn wants this game badly and you'd better believe that he has an edge in terms of understanding the personnel and systems of the Seahawks. That said, the fact we are getting about a full TD here with the much better offensive team is too good to pass up. Seattle is still a quality football team but they are regressing in my opinion. They went from SB win in 2013 to SB loss to 2014 to NFC Championship loss in 2015. This season the regression will continue in my opinion but we just haven't seen it yet due to their soft schedule thusfar. The Hawks are off of their bye week but they do have a big game with division rival Arizona on deck. Also, the Falcons don't even want a bye right now as they simply keep on rolling. Their win at Denver last was their fourth straight upset victory. Even though the Falcons are on the road again for a 2nd straight week they simply stayed out west to prepare for this game. This Atlanta team has bonded together very well and this road trip will continue their surge. They are on a 9-1 ATS run their last 10 in the underdog role. The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS when they are at home and playing with rest. Seattle is also 1-5 ATS when they have the Cardinals on deck. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS off of a SU dog win when facing a non-divisional opponent. This is a classic case of an undervalued road dog against an overvalued home fave and that has created generous line value here. 10* ATLANTA in Sunday's late afternoon action |
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10-16-16 | Eagles -2.5 v. Redskins | 20-27 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #267 Sunday - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - Despite outgaining the Lions by over 100 yards last week, the Eagles came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard and suffered their first loss of the season. That sets this one up nicely in terms of the line value because the Redskins are off of a tight win at Baltimore in a game that clearly could have gone either way last week. Washington was fortunate in terms of the weather (gusty winds) limiting the Ravens offense last week. Prior to that game, the Redskins had allowed 27 points per game in their first 4 games of the season. Washington should prove to be no match for an Eagles team that has proven to be very well balanced early this season and currently ranks among the top offensive and defensive units in the league so far this season. After a tough loss last week, the Eagles will be flying all over the field in their first divisional game of the season. Philly is on a 25-14 ATS run in road games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. Washington is on a 16-30 ATS run in home games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Eagles defense (allowing only 266.8 yards per game) will key the road win here. 8* PHILADELPHIA early Sunday |
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10-16-16 | Ravens +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
EARLY Top Side - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday - 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - Ravens offense struggled last week in a home loss to the Redskins but Baltimore was limited by gusty winds in that game. The weather conditions today in East Rutherford, New Jersey will be beautiful and I expect the Ravens to take full advantage. Baltimore has the better pass protection (5.0% sack %) so far this season and the Giants have struggled to get to the quarterback (1.9% sack %) so far this year. Baltimore has also had the better defense this season with the #3 ranked D based on yardage while the Giants defense ranks only in the middle of the pack so far this year. The Giants were fortunate to get the ATS push last week at Green Bay as they only had 219 yards of offense in that game. This followed a dismal Monday night performance at Minnesota where the Giants only put 10 points on the board. Look for their struggles on offense to continue here as Baltimore improves on a 4-1 ATS (and SU) mark in their last five meetings with the Giants. The Ravens are on a long-term 81-33 SU run in games against teams with a losing record while the Giants are on a short-term 1-13 SU run in games against teams with a winning record. There is plenty of line value here with grabbing the points as Baltimore is 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog while the Giants are already 0-2 ATS this season when favored in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Ravens entered this season with an 8-0 ATS mark when they are road dogs of 3or more points and their facing a team off of a SU loss. That system is in play in this one! Also, the Ravens are on a 7-0 ATS run when they are off of back to back losses (SU and ATS) and they are facing an opponent whose winning percentage is .750 or less. Baltimore is also 8-1 ATS as a non-divisional dog of 2 points or more when they are off of an ATS loss by double digits. Last week the Ravens were -4 and they lost outright by 6 points so this system is in play as well as they missed the cover by 10 points last week. Additionally they entered the season on an 8-1 ATS run when facing an NFC opponent off of a SU loss. The Giants have a trip to London on deck as an additional distraction here. 10* BALTIMORE Sunday |
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10-15-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Rice +3.5 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #170 Saturday - 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET Saturday - UTSA is over-rated right now and Rice is under-rated. As a result, there is solid line value here with the home dog. The Roadrunners are off of a big win over Southern Miss but it was a deceiving final score. UT-San Antonio beat the Golden Eagles by a 55-32 final score but gave up 557 yards in the game! The key was 3 Southern Miss turnovers and also that game was a home game for UTSA. Now the Roadrunners take to the road where they have lost both of their games this season and certainly they are not known for being road warriors. Overall, UTSA is on a 3-9 ATS run as a favorite. Rice is off of a much needed bye week and they are playing this game with revenge. A loss to the Roadrunners last season cost the Owls a chance at a bowl game. Rice hasn't forgotten that and they, of course, have the added motivation of being one of just 2 FBS schools (Miami-OH is the other) that are winless on the season. Rice has played a much tougher schedule than UTSA has so far this season and that is a key to evaluating where these teams are really "at" right now. That said, the markets have a false read in my opinion. The line opened up around a pick'em and then went to UTSA -4. The Roadrunners simply aren't worthy of this line move. UT-San Antonio has allowed at least 445 yards per game in three straight games and Rice has won 3 of the 4 all-time meetings between these teams. Even though the Owls stats look very bad, they have played a much tougher schedule than UTSA and they are not only off of a bye, they also have an FCS school on deck so there will be no lookahead here. The Roadrunners have the full attention of the Owls. Rice is on an 8-3 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record and the Owls are also a perfect 3-0 ATS when off of a bye week. Look for the Roadrunners to drop to 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. UTSA simply does not travel well and they're going to have their hands full with an angry Owls team off of their bye week. 10* RICE OWLS Saturday evening |
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10-15-16 | North Carolina v. Miami (Fla) -6.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
ACC Beatdown - Rickenbach CFB Game #140 Saturday - 8* Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 3:30 ET - Both of these teams are off of a loss but it is the Canes who are the team that is likely to bounce back huge. The limiting factor for the Tar Heels is a weak defense. Yes the numbers from last week look good for the North Carolina defense but that had to do with bad weather due to Hurricane Matthew pounding the area. Prior to that game UNC had given up at least 421 yards in 4 of their first 5 games. To put that in perspective in terms of Saturday's match-up, note that the Hurricanes have allowed an average of only 284 yards per game on the season. Miami (FL) has given up an average of only 12.8 points per game. The home team has covered 9 of the last 12 match-ups between these teams and Miami has revenge from an ugly loss at North Carolina last season. Miami is on a 9-3 run as a home favorite and also a perfect 3-0 ATS run when off of a SU loss. After last week's tight loss to Florida State, the Hurricanes need to respond with a W and the Canes head coach Richt has an incredible 90-45 (67%) ATS mark in SU wins. So if you like the Hurricanes to win here, the odds are you like them to cover as well. I also like the line move here as this line was up near 10 earlier this week and this line has now come down to a -6.5 as of Friday night. Great line value for the home favorite here. 8* MIAMI-FLORIDA Saturday afternoon |
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10-15-16 | Kent State v. Miami (OH) +1.5 | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #174 - Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 2:30 ET - The Redhawks are one of just two winless FBS schools remaining (Rice is the other) and this is the perfect spot for Miami-Ohio to get into the win column. Yes, they have injury issues at QB but even if Billy Bahl does not play look for them to fare just fine here on Saturday at home against Kent State. Keep in mind, last week it was a tough road start for a freshman QB but should Noah Wezensky get the start again, it will be his third game and he was much better at home two weeks ago then he was last week on the road. Miami-Ohio, statistically, has been just as good as Kent State this season but they Redhawks just don't have a win yet to show for it. The home team has won 5 of the 7 meetings between these teams but here we are getting line value because of the Redhawks 0-6 record on the season. Miami-Ohio is on a 14-9 ATS run as an underdog. Miami-Ohio also is on a 5-1 ATS run in their games against conference foes with a winning percentage of .333 or less and the Golden Flashes come into this game with a 2-4 record on the season. Look for the Redhawks to get revenge for last season's 20-14 loss at Kent State. Miami-Ohio almost rallied for the win in that road game but threw a late pick in the end zone with about a minute to go in the game. The Redhawks net yards per game this season is only -3.3 and they certainly deserve much better than an 0-6 mark on the season. They will take advantage of a Kent State team that has one of the worst offenses in the nation (ranked #122 for yards per game). 8* MIAMI-OHIO Saturday afternoon |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers +3 | 13-21 | Win | 111 | 59 h 28 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher Thursday - Rickenbach NFL Game #104 - 8* San Diego Chargers (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:25 ET - Many are likely to be looking at the Broncos here off of a home loss. However, I correctly faded Denver with the Falcons last week and I am going to do it again with the Chargers this week. Broncos rookie QB Paxton Lynch proved that it may be awhile before he's ready to step in as a solid NFL starter. That means the return of QB Trevor Siemian this week even though his non-throwing shoulder could still be an impact for him. Also, keep in mind, these teams are nearly even statistically so far this season. Even though the Chargers are only 1-4 on the season, they lost their first game of the season in overtime and they come into this game on a 3-game losing streak where the 3 defeats have come by a total of just 8 points. The point is that San Diego has been in every game. Though the Broncos D allows an average of 74 yards per game less than the Chargers, the San Diego offense is averaging 47 yards per game more than Denver's O. That said, considering we have home field here and we have a veteran QB in Philip Rivers going against an injured rookie in Siemian, I like my chances for the upset here. The Chargers are on a 7-2 ATS run when off of a SU loss against a division rival. Though they got the cover last week they did lose the game by 3 points at Oakland last week. The Broncos have a history of underestimating foes and with all of their past success against the Chargers (5 straight wins dating back to 2013 post-season), they could get caught underestimating just how dangerous this 1-4 San Diego team is. Denver is on a long-term 56-77 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record. The Broncos offensive line was shaky last week and the defense was exposed by the high-powered attack of Atlanta. Trust me, the Chargers were paying attention to both of those areas and can take advantage at home on Thursday night. 8* SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
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10-12-16 | Appalachian State -9.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass Wednesday - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 - 8* Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) @ UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ 8 ET - This line opened up at a 10.5 and got bumped up to a 12 in the early activity on Sunday evening and then has since dropped to a 9.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The original line and movement was correct in my opinion. The Mountaineers should blast the Ragin' Cajuns. UL Lafayette has major issues. They're not getting consistent QB play and they brought in a number of junior college transfers in the off-season (hasn't worked out well) and then fired their defensive coordinator after the first game of the season. The fact is that this is a program in disarray as head coach Mark Hudspeth doesn't have a good handle on his own team and his own coaching staff. They will be no match for what is arguably the top team in the Sun Belt Conference as they try to trade blows with Appalachian State on Wednesday night. The Mountaineers are an experienced team and a physical team that can bully a team like UL Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns fell to 4-8 last year and it just seems that Hudspeth and company have lost control of this program and they are going to continue heading the wrong direction. On the other side you have a Mountaineers team that went from 4 wins to 7 wins to 11 wins the past three seasons! Even though Appalachian State is only 3-2 this season, that is because they played SEC foe Tennessee and ACC foe Miami in non-conference action. Those are big programs for a Sun Belt team to face but Mountaineers head coach Scott Satterfield is building the program at Appalachian State and he knows that facing teams like that is all part of the equation. In their conference opener, the Mountaineers dominated Georgia State and held them to 241 total yards of offense while forcing 4 turnovers. Appalachian State has defeated the Ragin' Cajuns by at least 19 points in each of their two meetings the past two seasons and I feel the point spread here is indeed at least a touchdown less than it should be. The Mountaineers have not turned the ball over more than once in a game this season. UL Lafayette has 8 turnovers in their last 3 games. The Ragin' Cajuns also have gone 1-4 ATS as home dogs when they are facing a team who is off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin. The Mountaineers beat Georgia State by 14 earlier this month and they can blast UL Lafayette by more than that here. As a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points the Ragin' Cajuns have gone 0-2 ATS. As road favorite, Appalachian State has gone 5-2 ATS and this is their first ever Wednesday game and the Mountaineers will go "all out" as they know they are in the spotlight with a rare weeknight game on ESPN2 where it is the only football game on TV (unlike typical Thursdays and Fridays). 8* APPALACHIAN STATE |
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10-10-16 | Bucs +6 v. Panthers | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 - 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:30 ET Monday - Both teams have some injury issues but the Panthers being without QB Cam Newton certainly is the biggest of them all. He has been ruled out for this Monday night match-up and, with both teams having struggled early this season, I see great line value here with the points. The line moved to a solid 6 Sunday evening and that means it is "go time" for me here on Monday morning. Note that Carolina is on a long-term 21-32 ATS run as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in road games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The biggest trend here is that the Buccaneers are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS when they are a dog of more than 4 points off of a game where they were held to less than 10 points. With Tampa Bay off of the ugly 27-7 loss to Denver last week and now coming in as a 6 point dog on Monday Night Football, look for the Buccaneers to come up huge in a chance to make amends in a divisional game in the spotlight of MNF. Tampa Bay is looking for revenge here as they have lost both match-ups with Carolina each of the past three seasons (0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS). Look for a big game from RB Jacquizz Rodgers who also was a solid receiving target for the Falcons from 2012 to 2014. He'll be filling in to injuries to the Bucs RB corps and he's fully capable of a big game here. The Panthers defense got lit up by Atlanta last week and I know TB is certainly no ATL when it comes to production on offense but QB Jameis Winston is certainly capable of putting up big numbers and he simply needs to avoid turnovers. By the way, the Panthers have forced just 1 turnover the past 2 weeks combined. The Bucs could pull off the upset here but certainly there is value with the sizable points. Look for that stat I mentioned above to move to a perfect 11-0 ATS. 8* TAMPA BAY Monday night |
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10-09-16 | Giants v. Packers -7 | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 - 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:30 ET Sunday - Superb scheduling advantage here for the Packers as they are off of their bye week and now host a Giants teams traveling for a second straight week and also playing on short rest as the G-men were at Minnesota on Monday night. The Giants have failed to cover any of their last three games as they head to Lambeau Field to take on a Green Bay team that is 9-1 ATS when off of a bye. The Packers are also on a 6-0, 100% PERFECT ATS run when they are a home favorite against an NFC East foe. Green Bay certainly won't overlook the Giants as New York has defeated Green Bay in each of the last three meetings including one in the post-season here in Green Bay 5 years ago. The Giants have failed to cover 4 straight times when they are a road dog in the 2nd of back to back games away from home. After getting drilled at Minnesota Monday night look for a similar result Sunday night. Don't be surprised if turnovers play a role again tonight as the Giants have turned the ball over 8 times in their last 3 games while the Packers have not turned the ball over a single time in 2 of their 3 games this season. The Giants are very banged up in the secondary and the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers will take advantage. The Packers are allowing only 42.7 rushing yards per game so the Giants will have to beat them through the air but Eli Manning has struggled in his last 2 games including throwing 3 interceptions. 8* GREEN BAY Sunday night |
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10-09-16 | Bengals -1.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 - 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Bengals have the rest edge here as they had a Thursday game last week. By the way, Cincy dominated the Dolphins in that game and the fact is that the Cowboys simply have not faced a team as strong as the Bengals yet this season. Cincinnati has been a playoff team for five straight seasons. The Cowboys have faced a floundering 49'ers team, the Giants and Redskins (both struggling in recent season as part of the NFC "Least" Division, and a Bears team that hasn't had a winning season since 2012. Dallas finally gets tested here and the Bengals defense will have its ears pinned back as they want to test Dak Prescott early and often in this one. The young QB has performed well so far this season but he hasn't faced much pressure and the Bengals are known for having a fierce defense that can "bring the heat". Cincy entered this season with a 7-0 ATS mark in their games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or greater. Coach Marvin Lewis has a reputation for having his Bengals at their best for games like this and they would love nothing more than to knock off "America's team" at "Jerry's World" Sunday afternoon in Dallas. The Cowboys have been a great "story" early this season but the Bengals are the "proven" team in a big game setting like this one. Dallas is on a 5-13 ATS run in home games while the Bengals are on a 12-6 ATS run in road games and a 17-6 ATS run against NFC East opponents. 10* CINCINNATI in late afternoon Sunday action |
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10-09-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #465 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons +4.5 @ Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - Paxton Lynch was pressed into duty at QB for the Broncos last week at Tampa Bay and he performed well. However, the Buccaneers are now 13-39 in their last 52 games and Lynch, likely to start here, is going to face a much tougher test against the Falcons. Atlanta is not a strong club defensively but they are a powerhouse on offense and Matt Ryan and Company should "get theirs" against the Broncos in this one. That will put pressure on the rookie Lynch to come up with a big game here and that is going to be tough in this spot. Ryan threw for over 500 yards last week and 300 of that went to WR Julio Jones who continues to be a beast for the Falcons. The Broncos rock solid defense now meets the offense currently ranked #1 in the league and considering the key injury for Denver at the QB position with Trevor Siemian likely to miss, I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here but certainly there is value in the points. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and all 3 wins were outright upsets! The Falcons are 13-6 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons combined. The Broncos are known for playing well at Mile High but they have covered only 3 of the last 9 times they are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* ATLANTA in late afternoon action Sunday |
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10-09-16 | Georgia -6.5 v. South Carolina | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
SEC Bulldog Insider - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #419 - 8* Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 2:30 ET Sunday - I have had a lot of success with the Bulldogs through the years and know the program quite well. Though Georgia is off of a heartbreaking last-second "hail mary" defeat versus Tennessee last week, they are ready to respond. Remember we saw similar circumstances earlier this season when Oklahoma State was off of a devastating defeat to Central Michigan on a "hail mary" play that shouldn't have even been able to happen - no time left and officials made a mistake. The Cowboys responded the next week by defeating Pittsburgh. Even though that win ended up coming by only a TD Okie State had multiple big leads throughout that game and definitely came ready to play. This is the type of effort I expect from Georgia today who has had extra time (with this game being rescheduled to Sunday) to be fully prepared mentally as they look to erase the bitter taste of last week's tough defeat. Georgia is now off of back to back losses and they are 18-2 SU (and 15-5 ATS) the last 20 times they entered a game off of two or more consecutive defeats. South Carolina is getting a few guys back this week that could help the offense but their overall production is just not there. They are still short of playmakers on offense and have produced some of the worst production on offense in the nation so far this year. Georgia is averaging more than 100 yards more per game on offense than are the Gamecocks. Also, South Carolina got drilled by the Bulldogs 52-20 last year and, after having just 1 carry last week, Georgia RB Nick Chubb is listed as probable for this game and I expect him to do plenty of damage here against a South Carolina defense that is allowing more than 200 rushing yards per game. As a fave of 3.5 to 10 points, the Bulldogs have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Both teams are in "must win" mode but the road team is the much stronger and more balanced team. Also, Gamecocks head coach Will Muschamp went 1-3 against Georgia (his alma mater) when he was head coach of the Gators. Once against the Bulldogs get the best of Muschamp here. 8* GEORGIA early Sunday afternoon |
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10-09-16 | Texans +7 v. Vikings | 13-31 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #451 - 8* Houston Texans +7 @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET Sunday - The Vikings are not only undefeated this season, they are also 4-0 ATS. While a lot of credit certainly goes to the ultra-formidable defense of Minnesota, the fact is that the ball has certainly bounced the way of the Vikings early and often this season. The Vikes are +10 in turnover margin and that has had a lot to do with their success at the betting window early this season. I feel they are now starting to get a little too pricey as this line has moved up to a 7 and there is value with a Texans team whose offense (334.5 yards per game) is actually out-gaining the Vikings who are averaging only 290.5 yards per game this season. Also, very quietly, the Texans defense continues to do well and their strong performance last week came without J.J. Watt so that was a big plus for Houston. The Texans are allowing an average of only 287.8 yards per game this season while the Vikings are allowing an average of 306 yards per game. The Vikings D gets all the publicity but, as you can see, this Texans defense has been flying all over the field too! Houston has won the turnover battle in only one of their four games this season and that has been the big difference between these two teams. The result is solid line value for a 3-1 Texans team as everyone remembers their ugly loss to New England but the yardage was actually equal in that game and that type of result is adding even more line value to a spot like this. By the way, the Texans are on a 10-3 ATS run. Also, the Vikings are on a 3-10 ATS run when they are off of an ATS win by double digits and are now facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Texans did lose the last time they faced Minny and the Vikes are off of a huge cover in their win over the Giants which, by the way, came on Monday night so this is a short week for the Vikings to get ready for a tough Texans team. I am grabbing the generous points. 8* HOUSTON early Sunday afternoon |
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10-09-16 | Eagles -3.5 v. Lions | 23-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #461 - 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 1 ET Sunday - The Eagles, with their win over the Steelers two weeks ago, proved the naysayers wrong. This Philadelphia team is for real and now, the best possible thing that could happen is that the Eagles got a much-needed bye before their heads got too big because of knocking off Pittsburgh. In all seriousness, that bye week did some good for the Eagles as otherwise they might have come out "flat as a pancake" after such a huge win like they had over a top notch team like Pittsburgh. Philly ranks as one of the top teams in the league on both sides of the ball so far this season while the Lions continue to under-perform and are off of a disappointing loss to the Bears last week. Detroit has lost three straight games both SU and ATS. The Eagles come into this game a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS and with the added benefit of coming off of a bye week. That said, I'll gladly lay the small number with the Eagles here as there is line value with Philly on the road. The Lions have only covered ONCE the last NINE times they have been a home dog. Also, the Eagles are 5-0 ATS when they have extra rest and are facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or less. The Lions blew out the Eagles 45-14 last season and Detroit is 1-10 ATS as a dog of 10 points or less when they are facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Wentz show continues and also keep in mind that Jim Schwartz is the Eagles defensive coordinator and he is a former head coach of the Lions. The year after he was fired from the Lions he because defensive coordinator in Buffalo and helped lead the Bills to a 4-0 record against NFC North teams that season as he knew them well from his years in Detroit. He certainly knows the Lions well and that will pay off once again here. The Eagles have this game covered well on both sides of the ball with Wentz leading the way on O and Schwartz leading the way on D. Road rout! 8* PHILADELPHIA in early action Sunday |
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10-08-16 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 38-44 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #339 -10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET Saturday - Red Raiders QB Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to play and that's why this line is where it is because, the fact is, the Red Raiders are the better team in this match-up. The key then becomes what happens when the back-up QB comes in for Texas Tech? Though it was "only" Kansas last week, junior QB transfer (from Iowa) Nic Shimonek came in and ran the offense very well and threw 4 TD passes. Shimonek is known as one of the hardest working players on the team and he has been learning Kliff Kingsbury's offense ever since he came over from the Hawkeyes. Shimonek has good size at 6'3 220 lbs and he made good throws and quick reads. He also is full of confidence and has worked very hard to be ready for when he's needed. With many of the quick, shorter passes that are a part of the Red Raiders offense, it is not as difficult to "step in" as a back-up QB and get the job done although Shimonek certainly has the arm and the accuracy for the longer routes as well. Shimonek already got some solid work in back in week one of this season and last week's experience versus the Jayhawks also helps him to prepared for taking on Kansas State here. The Wildcats are only averaging 346 5 yards per game this season and this is nothing new as they averaged only 333.7 yards per game to rank as one of the worst offenses in the nation. While I do respect their defense, Kansas State was ripped apart for 59 points by the Texas Tech offense last season and they also were heading into that game off of a loss as well. That said, the fact that the Wildcats are off of a tough tight loss at West Virginia doesn't truly strengthen their position here. In fact, when Kansas State is home off of a straight-up loss and facing an opponent off of a win by a double digit margin, the Wildcats have gone 0-4 ATS. Also, Texas Tech is on a 4-2 ATS run as a road dog and their offense (both based on yardage and points per game) is #1 in the nation in both key categories. The Wildcats just don't have the firepower to keep up here and their defense was exposed last season frequently by teams with high-powered offenses. The Cats allowed 36.9 points per game in their final 11 games last season. That is significant in looking at this match-up because Kansas State never scored more than 45 points in a game last season. This season the Wildcats put up big points on poor teams like Florida Atlantic and Missouri State but they averaged only 14.5 points in their other two games. The Wilcats were outgained by a margin of 422 to 286 last week at West Virginia and the numbers are likely to be even more skewed this week. That has me backing the big dog here that absolutely has a great shot at an outright upset win on the road. The Red Raiders are averaging 664 yards of offense per game this season and though their defense is always a liability, they have some confidence with last week's strong performance and, again, the Wildcats just don't have the offense to take advantage. In their two games that weren't against "cupcake opponents" Kansas State has only completed 29 of 71 passes this season! 10* Top Play TEXAS TECH Saturday |
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