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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-01-17 | Raiders +3 v. Broncos | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - It is hard to look much worse than the Raiders did at Washington last week but that is part of the key to value in a spot like this. In fact, it is likely that Oakland was already peeking ahead to this game. Not only is Denver a divisional foe but the Broncos knocked the Raiders playoff positioning by upsetting them in the final regular season game last year. Of course Oakland was without Derek Carr in that game and now Carr and the Raiders are anxious for their revenge. As for the Broncos, though they still have a solid defense, they've got some significant issues on their offensive line and Oakland has the pass rushing ability to take advantage. It is likely going to be hard for the Denver offense to do much here and the Broncos have been a turnover-prone team with 2 in each game so far. Oakland is on a 13-6 ATS run in road games including 4-1 ATS when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. That is the case here and I love the value with the healthier team coming in off of an ugly loss and also seeking divisional revenge that had a playoff impact. 10* OAKLAND |
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10-01-17 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Early Contrarian - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Most will likely end up looking the way of Dallas here as everyone remembers the Rams dreadful season last year and certainly the Cowboys looked better in their bounce back effort versus the Cardinals. However, there are a couple of key edges here that offer significant line value for Los Angeles! The Rams last played a week ago Thursday so they have a huge rest edge over a Dallas team that just played on Monday night. Also, even though LA has a divisional foe (Seattle) on deck, the Cowboys have a huge revenge game versus the Packers up next. Remember Green Bay knocked them out of the playoffs on a last second field goal last year. Dallas certainly hasn't forgotten. On a short week and with a huge game on deck and with the Cowboys documented struggles at home, I have every reason to believe the Rams are going to present a major challenge on Sunday. Los Angeles has averaged 374.3 yards per game this season. By comparison, the Cowboys have averaged just 311 yards per game this season. Dallas is on an 8-15 ATS run in games played on turf and the Cowboys are on a 4-9 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Rams have only been a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 point range twice in recent seasons. The result? Not only a perfect 2-0 ATS but also a 2-0 SU! I am grabbing the points here but an outright win certainly would not be a complete shock. The Cowboys are in a true sandwich spot as they love being inthe spotlight and they are off of the MNF game and now have the huge game with the Pack on deck. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech +7.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #194 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - Virginia Tech has taken on a much easier schedule than Clemson but the Tigers schedule has been so tough that they could run out of gas here. Clemson is playing their 3rd tough game in a span of 4 weeks as the other tough match-ups were with Auburn and Louisville and now they take on a solid Virginia Tech team. The Hokies defense has settled in nicely after struggling versus West Virginia in the opener. Of course everyone is gunning for the Tigers this season and Virginia Tech is excited about this opportunity to host the defending national champs who, like the Hokies, are a perfect 4-0 this season. Clemson did give up over 400 yards in their only road game this season, at Louisville, and I feel this will be another tough test for the Tigers. Virginia Tech is loaded with confidence after their red hot start to this season and, of course, that makes them a very dangerous dog in this spot. The Hokies are 21-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and, within that number, they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Tigers are an ugly 7-12 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 7 points. Keep in mind the Hokies have revenge from last season's ACC Championship Game loss to the Tigers and Clemson is without their kicker as he was lost for the season with an injury. The Tigers are on a 2-6 ATS run in conference action. The Hokies are on a 14-7 ATS run as a dog in conference action. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
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09-30-17 | Florida State v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
ABC Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #148 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 3:30 ET - The Seminoles have had a rough start to the season with all the schedule changes due to Hurricane Irma. Florida State sits at 0-2 on the young season and certainly looks to bounce back and get their first win under their belt with a W over Wake Forest in his one. However, the Noles do have a big game with Miami on deck. Considering that FSU did play Alabama their YTD numbers don't look too bad after 2 games but they certainly didn't play well against NC State. Now, with Miami on deck, and having won 21 of their last 25 meetings with the Demon Deacons, it would not surprise to see FSU underestimate Wake Forest here. Keep in mind, the Demon Deacons have certainly not played a tough schedule but the fact that they are a perfect 4-0 has allowed them to build up plenty of confidence. A revenge-seeking team that is a big home dog and that has had their confidence boosted is the very definition of a tough "out". That said, the Noles are going to have trouble putting the Demon Deacons away in this one. FSU is a long-term 25-36 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. WF is on a 12-6 ATS run as an underdog. Grab the generous points here as the Demon Deacons already have 4 games under their belt while FSU has played just two games so far. That is another edge for the home dog here. 8* WAKE FOREST |
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09-30-17 | South Florida v. East Carolina +21.5 | 61-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #118 Saturday 8* East Carolina Pirates (+) vs South Florida Bulls @ Noon ET - The Bulls numbers look great but their schedule has been super soft! They've played Stony Brook, an FCS team, plus San Jose State, Illinois, and Temple. San Jose State is 1-4 SU, Illinois is 1-2 ATS, Temple is 0-4 ATS. Three underachieving teams that all have been struggling. The point is that the Bulls are laying quite a steep price here considering their weak schedule and the fact that they're on the road facing an East Carolina team that has a decent offense. The Pirates have averaged 321.8 passing yards per game this season. The Pirates defense has certainly been a weakness but they've got the offense to hang around in this game against an over-priced favorite. South Florida has dominated in this series and may overlook the Pirates as a result. They have a bye week on deck and may already be going into "relax mode" before playing the full 60 minutes in this one. The Bulls also have benefited greatly from being +10 in turnovers while the Pirates are -6 in turnovers this season. The result is line value here in a spot where I expect East Carolina to be excited about stepping up at home as they host a ranked conference foe. Keep in mind this is the first conference road game for the Bulls under coach Strong. 8* EAST CAROLINA |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL v. Duke +7 | 31-6 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Friday - Rickenbach CFB 8* Duke Blue Devils (+) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7 ET - The Hurricanes have only played 2 games this season due to scheduling issues caused by, coincidentally, a hurricane! Miami really hasn't been able to get into a rhythm yet with all the scheduling complications and the Canes were only up 38-30 in the middle of the 4th quarter of last week's win over Toledo. Also, Miami's first win was over an FCS team as they faced Bethune Cookman. With that said, the Hurricanes really haven't been challenged yet and, again, they didn't look all that sharp versus the Rockets last week. Now the Canes make their first road trip of the season and they're facing a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 SU and ATS this season. Duke has faced some tougher competition than Miami has. Also, with the Hurricanes having dominated this series long-term, you know that Duke is fired up about this opportunity at home in a big weeknight match-up. I look for the Blue Devils to make the most of it. Though both teams have impressive stats on offense so far this season, the key edge favoring Duke is the strength of schedule as well as the fact that their defense is allowing 128 yards per game less than Miami's. Also, the Hurricanes have a big game on deck with Florida State. The Canes are on a long-term 7-11 ATS run as a road fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Blue Devils are on a 10-5 ATS run as an underdog and a long-term run of 15-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points! Remember too that the last time Duke hosted the Hurricanes they lost on a last-second crazy play with 8 laterals that really shouldn't have counted but ended up giving Miami the win over the Blue Devils at the final gun. Crazy finish and it's revenge time here. 8* DUKE |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:25 ET - 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams have been decided by a single possession. The average margin of victory in those 3 games was 5 points and I look for the Bears to again "hang tight" in this one. Chicago did win in Green Bay in November of 2015. Also, in their most recent meeting, December of 2016 in Chicago, the Bears lost by just 3 points. The Packers off of a draining overtime win versus Cincinnati where they had to rally for the win against the Bengals. That type of win expends a lot of energy and the Packers now are playing short rest with this being a Thursday match-up. The Bears are also off of an overtime win but they let most of the game so it didn't require the same effort that Green Bay's W did. Also, Chicago has been running the ball better and defending the run better than the Packers have so far this season. I like defensive-minded dogs that hold an edge in the ground game. Especially when they're getting more than a TD like the Bears are in this one. Chicago is 13-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears have been tough already in this TD price range this season and I look for another cover here as the Packers are also dealing with more injuries than the underdogs in this one. 8* CHICAGO |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cardinals had a disappointing 7-8-1 season last year while the Cowboys went 13-3. The key though is that the breaks really seemed to go the way of Dallas last year in tight games while Arizona was at the other end of the spectrum. The result is line value in a spot like this because Dallas actually was ranked in the lower 3rd of the league for pass offense and pass defense last season. Now they come into this game off of a match-up where RB Ezekiel Elliott just couldn't get going last week and with an inability to establish the run it exposes the fact that QB Dak Prescott does not have a great arm for getting the ball downfield. As for the pass defense, the Cowboys have some injury issues in the secondary and this puts them at risk here. Arizona was actually a solid all-around team statistically last year with their offense ranking 9th in the league and their defense ranked 2nd! The point is that they deserved better than where their record ended up. Hence, the value here. Now, in week 1 they did fall apart at Detroit as turnovers ate them alive as the game went on. However, the ability to bounce back and win on the road last week (albeit in OT) was a big confidence-booster for the Cards. Speaking of confidence, Arizona has won 4 straight versus the 'Boys. This is the Cardinals home opener and they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 as a home dog in non-divisional action. Couple that with the 4-0 ATS mark in their last 4 versus Dallas and you have a 9-0, 100% PERFECT combined mark favoring the home dog Cards here. I won't be surprised to see them get the outright win in this one but certainly am happy to grab the generous points. 10* ARIZONA |
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09-24-17 | Raiders -3 v. Redskins | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
Sunday Night Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - The Raiders showed a lot in their season opening win at Tennessee and then they were able to coast to a blowout win over the hapless Jets last week. That home win over the Jets certainly came much easier than what the Redskins went through last week. Not only did Washington have a tough divisional battle in Week 1 with the Eagles (and they lost badly and were outplayed significantly) they then had to go to battle with a Rams team in Los Angeles last week that was much tougher to "put away" then expected. The Redskins passing attack has not looked good this season whereas the Raiders overall offensive production has them ranked among the top teams in the league. Also, Oakland's aerial attack can take advantage of a Redskins pass defense that ranks among the worst in the league here in the early going this season. The Raiders are on a fantastic 13-3 ATS run in road games and QB Carr and WR Crabtree are proving to be a dangerous combo. Even though Oakland has a big divisional game on deck with Denver, they aren't going to overlook a Sunday Night game. Also, the Raiders are a "team on a mission" after getting ousted from the playoffs last season so quickly (because QB Carr had gotten hurt at the end of the regular season). Their "mission" continues Sunday night. 10* OAKLAND |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - A lot of home dog value here because the Chargers have essentially blown both of their games as they lost by 3 points or less each time and the Chiefs have won big despite being involved in games that were very close very late each time. Kansas City certainly has impressive wins for their "resume" with a 15-point win over the Patriots and a 7-point win over the Eagles but the fact is those were close games that "turned on a dime" in the 4th quarter. That's not to say that won't happen again here but the fact is that Los Angeles has been "on the cusp" in each game and the Chargers are catching the Chiefs at the right time to "get over the hump". That was an emotional win for Kansas City in their home opener last week and I look for them to be "spent' after head coach Andy Reid led his troops to victory over a former protege (Eagles head coach Doug Pederson) and his former team (Philadelphia). The Chargers have been swept by the Chiefs each of the last 3 years and this is LA's first divisional home game. In other words, the Chargers have had this one circled! 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS in late afternoon action Sunday |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Both teams are off of losses last week but, statistically, both were "right there" with their opponents even though the fell short on the scoreboard. That said, the difference is the Packers lost a very important game as they were seeking revenge against the Falcons for defeating them in the NFC Championship Game in January and preventing a Super Bowl trip for Green Bay. Though the Bengals are also off of a loss last week it wasn't nearly as "deflating" of a defeat and the fact is that Cincinnati, sitting at 0-2 on the season, comes into this one very hungry as a result. The Bengals defense has played well and the team as a whole hasn't played as bad as their results would indicate as they were done in by turnovers in Week 1 and then, in Week 2, they played out a "defensive struggle" with the Texans. Keep in mind the Packers were down by as much as 24 in their loss at Atlanta last week so they certainly did not impress overall. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they held to less than 10 points. Also, Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS when they are a dog in the first of back to back road games. The Bengals do have another road game on deck next Sunday while the Packers are in a tough scheduling spot off of a big Sunday night game and with a Thursday night game on deck. 10* CINCINNATI plus the big points in late afternoon action Sunday |
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09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3.5 | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher Early - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET - Nice set-up here. The Broncos are off of a huge home win versus Dallas as they were up big in terms of emotions heading into that one. Now they travel for the first time this season and, not only that, Denver has a huge game on deck with division rival Oakland. This definitely looks like a "trap game" for the Broncos and, in addition, a "trap game" for the betting public. This line has been driven up from an opener of 1 to as high as a 3.5 as of Saturday evening. The Bills are on a 10-4 ATS run as a home dog and truly are "built" to be a dangerous home dog. That's because their defense ranks right up there statistically with Denver so far this season and Buffalo has a good ground game on offense. That rushing attack could surprise many by enjoying success against a Broncos run defense that, surprisingly, actually ranked among the league's worst last season. Don't be surprised if the Bills get the upset but certainly the available points are well worth the taking. 8* BUFFALO in early afternoon action |
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09-24-17 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Connecticut | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday CFB 8* East Carolina Pirates (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ Noon ET - This game was originally scheduled for November 4th but got moved to a RARE Sunday date in late September due to the scheduling impacts of Hurricane Irma. As a result we get some RARE Sunday College Football here and I look for the underdog Pirates to respond after firing their defensive coordinator. Yes, East Carolina fired him BEFORE the Virginia Tech game and the Pirates still got throttled by the Hokies but that team is certainly at a much different level than the Huskies. Connecticut entered this season 14-35 the last 4 seasons! They only scored 20 TD's last year which was dead last in the nation. The Huskies averaged just 16 points per game on offense the last 3 seasons combined. Already this season they are struggling too as they only put up 27 in a win over Holy Cross - a team they should have blasted. The UConn defense has been giving up huge yardage too. While the same can be said of the Pirates defense, East Carolina has played the tougher schedule with games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech the past two weeks. In other words, this is the week for the Pirates to put it all together. They have the much better offense in comparison with the Huskies and I like the East Carolina D to respond here now that they've had some time since the DC was fired. Note that the Huskies are 0-7 ATS when they are at home after a non-conference game. Also, the Pirates are 9-0 ATS when they are a road dog of less than 6 points and they're coming off of a loss by double digits. Conference opener for both teams and a chance for winless East Carolina to have a fresh start. I look for them to take advantage and I certainly like the combined 16-0, 100% ATS factors in favor of the Pirates as detailed above. 8* EAST CAROLINA |
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09-23-17 | Hawaii v. Wyoming -4.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Saturday 10* Top Play CFB Game #364: Wyoming Cowboys (-) vs Hawaii Warriors @ 10:15 ET - Wyoming is getting some help from the weathermen here. Hawaii has been known to struggle in cold weather games. The Warriors just aren't used to it. Even though the calendar shows September, it's already going to be getting downright cold in Laramie, Wyoming Saturday night (Cowboys also helped by this being a night game). Temperatures will likely be in the low 40s at kickoff and could even drop into the 30s as the game goes on. Additionally it will be chilly due to a very cold rain falling and the Warriors were already at a disadvantage simply because of playing on the road and in high altitude. Hawaii relies on their offense to stay in games and I expect them to struggle in the unusual conditions. As for the Warriors defense, they have allowed over 400 yards in each of their three games and, keep in mind, that included a very bad Massachusetts team and Western Carolina - an FCS team. As for the Wyoming defense, they did struggle against Oregon (who doesn't?) but in their other two games they allowed an average of just 229 yards per game. Historically speaking, the Cowboys have won each of their last 4 times hosting Hawaii and Wyoming went 3-1 ATS in those games. Also, this is a conference game and the Cowboys are on a 10-6 ATS in conference action while the Warriors are on a 4-12 ATS run in conference games. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Hawaii is a long-term 2-17 SU run and 5-14 ATS! The Cowboys have played the much tougher schedule and are just 1-2 on the season but the Warriors are on a 1-9 ATS run in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. 10* WYOMING |
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09-23-17 | Arkansas State +6 v. SMU | 21-44 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday 8* CFB Game #377: Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) @ SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - Nice situation here for the Red Wolves. They're off their easy win versus an FCS team (Arkansas-Pine Bluff). Keep in mind, the Mustangs also had one of those earlier this season as they crushed Stephen F Austin. The key difference though is what happened in the other games for these teams. The Red Wolves fought hard in a 7-point loss at Nebraska in their season opener. As for the Mustangs, they actually did NOT outgain North Texas in their 22 point win over the Eagles. Then, in SMU's most recent game, they hung around with TCU for awhile but then fall apart as the game went on. It was a demoralizing loss because they felt it slip away as the game went on and TCU is their DFW rival. Each of the last 4 seasons, SMU has lost their next game after facing the Horned Frogs. The Red Wolves have a bye on deck and they are on an 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as they are 1-1 this season and wrapped up last season on a 7-2 run at the betting window. Even though Arkansas State is a Sun Belt team, they are up at the top of the conference each and every season and have a winning culture. As for SMU, they entered this season with an 8-28 SU record the last 3 seasons. Grab the undervalued dog here. 8* ARKANSAS STATE |
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09-23-17 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -11.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
Big Ten Network Day Game - Rickenbach Saturday 8* CFB Game #350: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 3:30 ET - With the firing of their athletic director on Thursday, there are shockwaves going through Nebraska right now. However, one thing is for sure, the players know it is "put up or shut up time" and I expect a huge effort as a result. The Huskers didn't play well in their season-opening win over Arkansas State but their 7-point loss at Oregon certainly wasn't unexpected as they were a 14-point dog. Then in looking at their loss to Northern Illinois they outgained the Huskies 384 to 213 but were done in by turnovers. I firmly believe all this has served to give us fantastic line value here because now Nebraska, whom hasn't played as bad as the "bad rap" they're getting in some circles, is actually a manageable favorite against a bad Rutgers team that certainly has issues of it's own. The Scarlet Knights just don't belong as a Big Ten team. They are 6-18 the past two seasons and this season they already lost to a MAC team (just like Nebraska did last week) but, unlike the Huskers, Rutgers was outgained in their loss to a MAC foe. The Scarlet Knights are on a 6-13 ATS run as an underdog. Nebraska is 3-0 straight-up (and undefeated ATS) the past 2 seasons when they've entered a game on a losing streak of 2 games or more. Keep in mind too, this is the Scarlet Knights first road game this season. Also, this is a Big Ten opener so Nebraska will be fully focused and the Cornhuskers are 10-1 ATS when they are a favorite of more than 5 points coming off of a non-conference game. After being embarrassed by Northern Illinois last week, huge response here. 8* NEBRASKA |
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09-22-17 | Virginia +13 v. Boise State | Top | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach Friday CFB 10* Top Play Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Boise State Broncos @ 8 ET - The Broncos were actually outgained in last week's win over New Mexico and they failed to cover in the 28-14 win. Boise State returned only 9 starters coming into this season and, even though QB Brett Rypien is probable for this game, he has not been overly impressive early this season. That said, I feel the Broncos are overpriced here. Overall, this team has failed to cover 11 straight home games. You read that right, it is an 0-11 ATS run for Boise State on the Blue FieldTurf at Albertsons Stadium. Even when Boise State has played back to back home games it hasn't helped either as they are on a long-term run of 1-8 ATS in the 2nd game of back to back home games. Also, as a weekday home fave of more than 7 points, the Broncos are on an 0-8 ATS run! Boise State has a bye on deck but then they face BYU. The Broncos are on an 0-4 ATS run in their games that precede facing the Cougars. Ironically, Brigham Young is a "tie-in" feature here as it relates to this match-up with Virginia. That's because Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall used to coach BYU so he has plenty of familiarity with the Boise State program. Prior to Mendenhall coming to the Cavs, they were blown out at home (56-14) by the Broncos in 2015. Certainly the Cavaliers are looking to avenge that embarrassing home loss and Virginia is 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning record. Both these teams come into this game having gone 2-1 this season and both have a bye on deck. While an upset is asking a lot I certainly do expect the revenge-minded Cavs to stay within single digits of the Broncos in this one! Boise State is averaging only 340.7 yards of offense per game this season and the Cavaliers passing offense alone is averaging 325 yards per game this season. Coming off of a confidence-building win by a huge margin over Connecticut last week, the Cavs are a very dangerous dog here. 10* VIRGINIA |
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09-21-17 | Temple +20 v. South Florida | 7-43 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Thursday ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB 8* Temple Owls (+) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7:30 ET - Certainly Temple has not impressed early this season but, keep in mind, South Florida was down 16-0 to a very poor San Jose State in Week 1 before they pulled away and won by 20. Then, the Bulls were actually tied with Stony Brook, an FCS team, in the 4th quarter before they pulled away and won by 14. The point is that, even though the Owls have struggled this season, they're getting nearly 3 touchdowns here against a Bulls team that hadn't truly looked good until they put it all together and played a complete game against Illinois last week. In that win over the Illini, they got 3 picks from the Illinois QB which certainly keyed the win. Note that Temple's QB has yet to thrown an INT this season so the Bulls defense is unlikely to be so fortunate here. Even though South Florida covered last week, that was their first cover the last 8 times as a favorite in a weekday game when coming off of a SU win. In other words, it is still a 1-7 ATS run for the Bulls as a weekday fave and coming off of a win and last week they had extra rest due to their game against UConn being postponed. This week USF will be on short rest having just played on Friday. As for the Owls, they have covered 6 straight weekday games against conference opponents! Look for that run to reach 7-0 ATS by the time this Thursday night affair is in the books. 8* TEMPLE |
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09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 24-10 | Win | 105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Monday Night Top Play - Rickenbach NFL 10* Detroit Lions (+) @ New York Giants @ 8:30 ET - Not only are the Giants off of a divisional loss (at Dallas), they have a another divisional match-up (at Philadelphia) on deck. This is significant as the Giants are on a 3-7 ATS run in games that precede a divisional match-up. New York, has played 18 games (including one playoff game) since Ben McAdoo took over as head coach. They've gone 9-8-1 SU in those 18 games but have averaged just 18 points per game! In their last 7 games, the Giants have averaged just 13.6 points per game. It's hard to cover any type of spread as a favorite when you're not scoring points and, even if Odell Beckham Jr returns tonight, he's not 100% and he's also not necessarily going to be a magical elixir for the struggling Giants offense. Their long-term numbers tell the real story and I look for their struggles scoring points to continue. On the other side of the equation here, the Lions are off of a big season-opening win over the Cardinals and the way they rallied from a 3rd quarter deficit and then turned it into a blowout victory gives them plenty of momentum heading into this game. Also, Detroit is playing this game with revenge as they lost at New York in a late season match-up last year. That is significant here because the Lions are on an 8-1 ATS run when they are a road dog of less than 6 points and they are playing with revenge. Detroit was done in by turnovers in the loss at New York last year as the Lions did outgain the Giants in the 17-6 defeat. Payback time here. 10* DETROIT |
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09-17-17 | Redskins +3 v. Rams | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - You'll be hard pressed to find a more value-filled situation than this one. The Rams are off of a huge win last week and now are getting a ton of respect from the betting markets in this one. I'd like to take this moment to remind everyone that Los Angeles was 4-12 last season and let's talk about the Colts team they just beat. Indianapolis was without QB Andrew Luck and the Colts defense was one of the worst in the league last season. Certainly the Rams benefited from Indy turnovers in that game just like the Redskins were hurt by turnovers in their loss to the Eagles last week. By the way, Philadelphia is certainly viewed as a team with playoff potential this season while the Colts (without Luck) are viewed as a team that is arguably going to be the worst team in the league this year. With that said, Washington's loss to Philly gives them huge motivation here while the Rams have a false sense of confidence after crushing a Colts team that is a mess right now. Keep in mind Los Angeles has still covered only 2 of their last 13 games while the Redskins are on a 14-6 ATS after last week's home loss. Last year the Rams defense was one of the worst in the league (including against the pass) and they now face a Redskins passing attack that was one of the best in the league last season. Look for Washington QB Kirk Cousins to bounce back with a huge effort this week. By the way, Los Angeles does have their divisional opener on deck and it is a Thursday game! Tough spot for the Rams here and the Redskins are angry! 10* WASHINGTON |
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09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs just beat the defending Super Bowl champs. That was a huge upset win in the NFL season opener and it leaves Kansas City ripe for an upset here. While KC is off of an upset win, the Eagles are off of a win in a game that was right around a "pick 'em" spread. Philadelphia played very well on defense and forced turnovers in that game while QB Carson Wentz also proved his value with a solid game and making big plays when he had to. The Eagles are on an 11-2 ATS run against AFC opponents. A tightener within that is that it is a perfect 7-0 ATS run if their non-conference opponent has a winning percentage of .400 or more. Of course the Chiefs are 1-0 after their big 42-27 win at New England. Note that Kansas City is 0-5 ATS when they are at home off of a game where they scored 35 points or more! That means this spot is a combined 12-0 ATS in favor of the Eagles. I'll take it. Remember the Eagles were 5-1 last season in the games that offensive lineman Lane Johnson played in. He is back this season after the 10-game suspension last year and the Eagles running game looks very potent with LaGarrette Blount now in the mix! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-17-17 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Colts | 16-13 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Early No Doubt Rout - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - Last week, Arizona looked like they were headed for a road win against a Lions team that was in the playoffs last season. However, the Cardinals were outscored 24-6 to finish the game as they blew the lead thanks in part to a rare turnover-filled game from QB Carson Palmer. The Colts are also off of a loss but their situation was much different. Indianapolis was simply dreadful last week at Los Angeles and the Colts got buried by a 37-point margin by a Rams team that was 4-12 last season. That is bad news for Indy here as they're really taking a step up in class this week as Arizona is much better than their 6-10 record last season and yes I am aware that RB David Johnson is out with injury. The Colts are not only still without QB Andrew Luck, they also were one of the worst defenses in the league last season while the Cardinals ranked as one of the best stop units in the NFL. The Cards are on a 6-3 ATS run as a road fave of 3.5 to 7 points. The Colts are 1-6 ATS when they're facing a non-divisional opponent that is off of a straight-up loss as a favorite. The Cardinals were a small fave at Detroit last week and they're fired up about the way they let that game get away and the way they came unglued as the game went on. The Cardinals need to "get right" before their home opener against Dallas coming up on Monday night. Look for the Cards to use the down-trodden Colts as their "punching bag" in this one. Road rout. 8* ARIZONAÂ |
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09-16-17 | Clemson v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 47-21 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week Top Play - Rickenbach CFB 10* Saturday Game #148 - Louisville Cardinals (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - Clemson, reigning national champs, gets a ton of respect from the betting markets. Of course when you're coming off of a championship season you should but the fact is that the Tigers lost a ton of talent from last year's team. A QB who threw for over 4,000 yards plus a running back who ran for over 1,000 yards and a receiver who had more than 1,000 yards gained on receptions last season. Certainly this is still a very talented team but they did lose a lot of starters from last year's squad. Of course those "holes" haven't showed up yet but as they now face a conference foe that is ultra talented and gunning for them, I think you'll see it first-hand today! The Cardinals have the edge as their defense, just like Clemson, is fantastic but Louisville has the extra edge at QB. Of course former Tiger Deshaun Watson is now in the NFL but the Cards Lamar Jackson is still at the collegiate level wrecking havoc on defenses. He will be the difference maker here. The Cardinals are on a 7-1 ATS run when they are an underdog of less than 6 points. Considering the big posted total here, the odds makers expect quite a bit of scoring. The Tigers are on a 5-10 ATS run long-term in road games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. The fact that two high quality defenses are matched up and yet a big total is posted here tells you that some big plays are going to be made here. When all is said and done I certainly like the revenge-minded Cardinals and ultra-talented Jackson to be the ones making more of those big plays on offense! The Tigers offense is still adjusting after losing key talent from last year. 10* LOUISVILLE |
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09-16-17 | LSU -7 v. Mississippi State | 7-37 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB 8* Saturday Game #187 - LSU Tigers (-) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Mississippi State, of course, will be amped up and hoping for the big performance at home necessary to knock off a strong LSU team. However, don't lose sight of the fact that the Bulldogs only won 5 games in the regular season last year. In fact, Mississippi State entered this season on a 6-9 SU run in their last 15 regular season games. Both the Bulldogs and Tigers have impressed early this season but of course the competition has been weak. The key here is that there is more of a difference between the current state of these two SEC foes than what is being factored into this line but we're getting line value because Mississippi State has played weak competition and hasn't been "exposed" just yet. The Tigers are the stronger team in the trenches and have much more in the way of game-changing speed and talent on both sides of the ball. LSU has won each of the last two meetings but by slim margins. That's because the Tigers have blown big leads in each game. They've learned their lesson and I expect them to keep their foot on the gas in this one. In other words, they again get up by double digits but this time they don't let the Bulldogs get back into it. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points! Mississippi State is on a 3-6 ATS run in home games. 8* LSU |
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09-16-17 | Notre Dame -13 v. Boston College | 49-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB 8* Saturday Game #115 - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) @ Boston College Eagles @ 3:30 ET - The Eagles were a small home dog last week versus Wake Forest and got blasted 34-10. That drops Boston College to 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home dog! This ATS losing streak dates back to the 2014 season and the long-term futility is likely to continue here. The Eagles defense is again playing quite well this season but so too is Notre Dame's. The difference in this game is that the play of the two offenses is light years apart! The Fighting Irish are off of a tight loss last week but that was against a quality SEC program as Georgia nipped Notre Dame. That has the Fighting Irish fighting mad for this one and the Eagles defense hasn't faced anything close to the offensive weapons that Notre Dame brings to this one. Keep in mind, Boston College has faced Northern Illinois and Wake Forest thus far. Now they take on a very dangerous offense this afternoon. Also, Notre Dame is poised to respond huge after the tight loss last week. They have a tough game at Michigan State next week which means this game is a must win for them. Though they only beat Boston College by 3 the last time they faced them (in 2015) that outcome was impacted by turnovers as the Irish outgained the Eagles by 145 yards in that game. Look for the Fighting Irish to improve to 21-12 ATS in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points while Boston College drops to 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and loses for the 8th straight time (ATS too!) as a home dog! 8* NOTRE DAME |
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09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple -15 | 21-29 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Philly's Finest Friday - Rickenbach NCAAF 8* Temple Owls (-) vs UMass Minutemen @ 7 ET - The Owls certainly have not impressed thus far as they were blown out by Notre Dame and then blew a 13 point lead against Villanova last week before eking out a 3 point win. Temple gave up a lot of yardage in the loss to Notre Dame and then also gave up a lot of passing yardage versus the Wildcats. The secondary of the Owls was supposed to be their strength this season. That said, those guys are playing with a chip on their shoulder here and have something to prove. They are hell-bent on shutting down UMass and the good news is that the Owls will benefit from taking on a Minutemen team that scored just 7 points against an FCS team, Old Dominion, last week. Massachusetts is now 9-42 since the start of the 2013 season as they're already 0-3 this season. Though each of their 3 games this season has been decided by 10 points or less, that does not mean they'll be able to compete with Temple here. The Owls barely got by UMass when these teams met 2 seasons ago but the Minutemen have regressed since then and the Temple talent level (even though down from last year) is still vastly superior to that of UMass. The Minutemen gave up 8 sacks in last week's game! Even though Massachusetts has revenge here, they actually entered this season on a 1-8 ATS run when playing with revenge. Also, the Owls entered this season on a 13-0 ATS run when facing an opponent playing with revenge. Additionally, Temple is 6-0 ATS when facing a team off of back to back straight-up losses and the Owls are on an overall 11-3 ATS run in home games. 8* TEMPLE |
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09-10-17 | Giants +4 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - Are you ready for the sophomore slump? Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott had great rookie campaigns for the Cowboys last season but Dallas finished the season on a 1-6 ATS run (including post-season loss versus Green Bay) and that is a sign of things to come. Even though Elliott is playing in this game his suspension issues have been a major distraction for Dallas. Also, the offensive line did lose two starters from last season's team and that could certainly be an issue here. The Cowboys were also very poor against the pass last season and the Giants are chomping at the bit to turn Eli Manning and Company loose in this one after a disappointing performance for the Giants offense in coach Ben McAdoo's first year at the helm. I like the offseason moves the Giants made to strengthen the offense. Also, the G-men have had the Cowboys number as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in games versus Dallas. That includes 3 straight SU wins and the most recent loss came by just a single point at Dallas in the season opener of the 2015 season. The Cowboys are off of a "miracle season" where everything seemed to fall in place for them in the regular season but lets not forget they were 4-12 in 2015. This is still a quality Cowboys team but they haven't had back to back playoff seasons in many, many years and New York has been a nemesis for them. In road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points, the Giants are on a 28-16 ATS run. In games played on turf the past two seasons, Dallas is 6-15 ATS! More struggles for them at the betting window in this one! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - NCAAF Game #388: Rickenbach Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 8:30 ET - The Trojans seek revenge for their loss by 17 points at Stanford last season. Keep in mind, star QB Darnold did not play in that game. Although USC struggled some in their eventual 18 point win versus Western Michigan last week, the Broncos are a quality football program and Southern Cal also could not be blamed if they were perhaps peeking ahead to this big Pac-12 battle. As for Stanford, they had a bye week after blasting Rice in Australia two weeks ago. As impressive as that win may seem, the Owls are dreadful and the Cardinal (after an early season bye) may struggle to match the Trojans intensity here as USC benefits from having just played last week (maintaining early season rhythm) and from facing a higher quality opponent. Stanford has held the upper hand in this series in recent years but the odds makers certainly are not stupid. The first numbers that were posted on this game were up near 10. It quickly moved down before the big money could be bet put the point is I side with the odds makers here and love the value of having a team that should win by double digits and yet they're laying less than a TD. Note that the Trojans are on a long-term 24-12 ATS run as a home favorite. In all home games the past 3 seasons, Southern Cal is 9-5 ATS. The Cardinal lost some key personnel from last year's team and that certainly was not an issue against a team like Rice but it will be an issue here against the revenge-minded Trojans. Southern Cal has won 10 straight games and I look for another one here as they cover the small number along the way. 10* USC |
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan +7.5 v. Michigan State | 14-28 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - NCAAF Game #309 - Rickenbach Saturday 8* Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - The Broncos gave a valiant effort against a very strong Trojans team at USC last Saturday. Though Western Michigan fell short on the scoreboard, they showed that this solid MAC program isn't going to lay down for anyone even though they lost head coach PJ Fleck. The fact is that they're in very good hands with Tim Lester at the helm. At the same time, the fact is that the Spartans are in for more struggles this season. Remember they fell to 3-9 last season and now Michigan State returns very few starters this season. The fact that Sparty blasted a weak Bowling Green team (also from MAC but nowhere near the current level of Western Michigan program) is helping to give us line value here. Keep in mind the Spartans also have a bye on deck and then face Notre Dame and then start their Big Ten schedule. In other words, Michigan State could get caught looking ahead here while Western Michigan certainly is not going to be looking ahead to anything. They want this game against the "big boys" from in-state. Substantial ATS support here too! The Broncos are on a 6-0 ATS run as non-conference dogs of more than 3 points. Also, Western Michigan has covered 6 of their last 7 (86%) as a dog playing with revenge. The Broncos lost to Michigan State at home to open their 2015 season - that was when Spartans were much stronger and Western Michigan had not quite yet emerged. As for Michigan State, they are on a 2-11 ATS run when they are at home and off of a non-conference game. Also, the Spartans have covered just 1 of 9 (11%) as a non-conference favorite of less than 28 points. That system fits here as well! 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -9 | 42-27 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday NFL 8* New England Patriots (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - Though I expect a "correction" on the Patriots this season after their insane ATS success last season and then improbable comeback win in the Super Bowl, the "correction" does not begin here. That's because, even though they lost WR Julian Edelman for the season with an injury suffered in preseason action, their offense is still light years ahead of the Chiefs. In fact, their defense is too. The key to the Chiefs success last season was being +18 in turnovers on the year. If you look closely at Kansas City's numbers, they ranked well in scoring offense and scoring defense last season but they were very fortunate with turnovers. The fact is that their defense ranked 24th as they allowed 369 yards per game and their offense only ranked 20th with just 343 yards per game. By comparison, the Patriots ranked at or near the top of the league in all 4 of those categories - yards and points both offense and defense. The fact is that the Chiefs offense is a concern that they did little to address in the off-season. This is nothing against QB Alex Smith but more so it is about the weapons (or lack thereof) that surround him. Also, the KC defensive line lost some key starters from last year's unit. Add in the fact that the Patriots unfurl their Championship banner tonight, QB Tom Brady is eager to make up for missing the first 4 games last season, and that the Patriots are seeking revenge for the last regular season meeting between the clubs. Yes, the Pats got some revenge with a playoff win following the 2015 season but they were embarrassed on national TV in regular season action at Kansas City in the 2014 season. That was Bill Belichick vs Andy Reid as well. Who do you think comes out on top this time? This one gets UGLY for the Chiefs. 8* NEW ENGLAND |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3.5 | 44-45 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday NCAAF 8* UCLA Bruins (-) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:30 ET - The Bruins have revenge on their minds in this one and that includes QB Josh Rosen. The UCLA quarterback got hurt and missed the rest of the season after early October but he faced the Aggies a year ago to the day and he threw 3 picks in that game. He still was able to rally the Bruins back and force overtime but UCLA then lost in OT. The noteworthy aspect of the 3 picks in that game is that Rosen threw a TOTAL of only 2 picks in the other 5 games he played last season. Indeed Rosen has revenge on his mind here and I expect him to lead the way to a convincing victory over an Aggies team that lost a lot of starters from last season and is also now having to test an inexperienced QB on the road against a tough Bruins defense. Even though Texas A & M head coach Sumlin has a history of strong starts with plenty of wins (and covers) in recent seasons in August and September games, I am happy to go contrarian here and lay the points with the revenge-minded Bruins whom are on a rough 3-10 ATS run in home games. This is not just "any" home game for UCLA! Also, note that the Bruins are on a long-term ATS run against SEC opponents. 8* UCLA |
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09-02-17 | Vanderbilt -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
TV Top Game - Rickenbach Saturday NCAAF Game #203 - 10* Top Play Vanderbilt Commodores (-) @ Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 8 ET - Sure Middle Tennessee State is seeking revenge but this line drop from an opener of Vanderbilt -6 to now just a 3 point favorite as of gameday morning is a huge value for the Commodores. Vandy has come a long way in recent seasons and returns a solid starting group. This is still a case of an SEC team versus a CUSA team and the Commodores are also no longer the SEC's doormat! Yes the Blue Raiders threw the ball very well versus Vandy last season but the Commodores improvement on defense came as the season went on. They allowed an average of only 20.8 points per game in their final 8 regulars season games. The MTSU defense is a concern here. Not only are you talking about Conference USA talent but also the Blue Raiders are replacing their entire defensive line. Keep in mind that is part of the same front seven that Vandy ran all over for 234 rushing yards per game in the last two meetings. The Commodores are on a 7-1-1 ATS run against Conference USA opponents. Also, Middle Tennessee State is a long-term 0-4 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points and now this line is all the way down to a +3 and giving the Blue Raiders even less value here. Look for the road fave to roll again. 10* VANDERBILT |
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09-02-17 | Michigan v. Florida +6 | 33-17 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
ABC Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday NCAAF Game #202 - 8* Florida Gators (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 3:30 ET - The big story here is all the suspensions for Florida. The key is that this has opened up even greater line value for the Gators. Keep in mind, Michigan comes into this season with only 5 returning starters. The point is that the Gators losing some players for this game just means that the rosters are a little more evened out! Florida is still loaded with talent and this is an even match-up even with the suspensions. The Gators football program also certainly hasn't forgotten the 41-7 beatdown they were handed on New Years Day 2016. Time for a little payback here and the Florida suspensions made a lot of headline but if you look at which of those players were starters (not many) and the other depth the Gators have at those spots, you will find those suspensions are not as impacting as you would think. Florida's New Years Day loss is still etched in their memories but that is one of just 6 times the Gators have failed to cover in their last 21 neutral site games. Also, the Wolverines wrapped up last season covering just 1 of the last 6 games in which they were a favorite! The Gators are on a 6-1 ATS run in neutral site games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. Michigan is 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they've been a neutral field favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* FLORIDA |
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09-02-17 | California +13 v. North Carolina | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAAF Saturday Game #177 - 8* California Golden Bears (+) @ North Carolina Tar Heels @ 12:20 ET - With both teams going through significant changes from last season, I am happy to back the big dog in this match-up. The Tar Heels have a huge game on deck with conference rival Louisville while the Golden Bears have only Weber State on deck. Also, California is on a fantastic 7-0 ATS as a non-conference road dog of more than 3 points. Look for defensive-minded head coach Justin Wilcox to have the Golden Bears playing a completely different brand of football early this season compared to the all offense, no defense style of his predecessor Sonny Dykes. While both teams are undergoing changes at the QB position, Cal returned more starting firepower at the surrounding skill positions and I expect this to be a difference-maker Saturday as well. Also really like the coordinator hires that were made for the Golden Bears in support of Wilcox. He and his OC and DC will have the troops ready to go in this one and the points are generous here! The Bears are on a 5-2 SU and ATS run in September games and also are a long-term 10-3 ATS in games where they are a road dog in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. 8* CALIFORNIA |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado -3.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Friday NCAAF 8* Colorado Buffaloes (-) vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET - The Rams absolutely crushed Oregon State last week. Or wait...did they really? Yes I know the final scored shows a 59-27 shellacking in favor of Colorado State. However, the Beavers were only outgained by 30 yards through the air and 39 yards on the ground. For the game Oregon State actually gained over 450 yards of offense but the difference in the game was 5 Beavers turnovers. Certainly not taking anything away from what the Rams did in that game but the fact is that there has now been an over-reaction in the betting markets. Colorado State opened up as an 8.5 point dog here and now the line is just 3.5 as of gameday morning. Given me the small favorite in this one as we take advantage of the huge value offered by this line move. Yes it is a revenge spot for the Rams but Colorado is now a PAC-12 team that annually plays a much tougher schedule than Colorado State does. Also, the Buffaloes have held the upper hand in this series recently with the Rams getting the cash only 3 times in the last 10 meetings! Certainly Colorado lost key personnel from last year's defense but there was certainly some talent waiting in the wings too. The Rams are 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS the past two seasons in games played on a neutral field. Also, Colorado State is 5-12 SU (and 6-10-1 ATS) long-term in games played against PAC-12 foes while the Buffaloes are 14-9 SU against Mountain West Conference opponents. Additionally as a neutral site favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Buffs are 7-3 SU (and 7-3 ATS) as all 7 wins have covered. I expect the same result here. 8* COLORADO |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe +26 v. Memphis | 29-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday NCAAF 8* UL-Monroe Warhawks (+) @ Memphis Tigers @ 9 ET - While it may seem "scary" to back a 4-8 team from the Sun Belt Conference against an American Athletic Conference team that has gone bowling each of the last 3 seasons, the fact is there is tremendous value here with UL-Monroe. Traditionally, one of the big neutralizers when a game has the potential to be a mismatch is the weather. That said, I expect that to be fully in play here as the epic storm that is Harvey is now meandering through the southeastern part of the country after ravaging Texas with horrific weather. With very significant rainfall and windy conditions expect throughout this game, it will be tough for Memphis to get a huge margin of victory. Also, the Warhawks are in their 2nd year under head coach Matt Viator and they did show improvement under him last season. As for Memphis, their win total dropped again last season as the Tigers have gone from 10 to 9 to 8 wins successively the last 3 seasons. Also, while UL-Monroe has another non-winnable non-conference game on deck (at Florida State), the Tigers do have their conference opener on deck as they play Central Florida next week. With Memphis in a lookahead spot and just trying to survive the elements tonight, I feel there is great line value with the big underdog. Also the Warhawks are on a 4-2 ATS run as a road dog of 21.5 or more points. Look for Memphis to drop to 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. 8* UL-MONROE |
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08-26-17 | Hawaii +3 v. UMass | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NCAAF Saturday 8* Hawaii Warriors (+) @ Massachusetts Minutemen @ 6 ET - Many are looking at Massachusetts in this one since they have revenge from losing last year's season finale at Hawaii. However, out of all 130 FBS schools, the Minutemen very well may be the worst team in the nation. That said, I certainly see value in fading them here with a Hawaii team that made significant strides last season and got back to a bowl game. UMass is laying a full field goal here even though they are just 9-39 SU the last 4 seasons. Also note that the Minutemen are only 1-8 ATS when playing with revenge! The fact is that revenge certainly has a tendency to be "over-played" and this is particularly true when the team seeking revenge is a very poor team. The Warriors responded well under head coach Nick Rolovich last season and the fact they opened the season at Australia plus had to play Michigan at The Big House plus went to (and won!) a bowl game has this Hawaii team well prepared for this long road trip to open up the new season. Hawaii has tremendous talent on offense and the Minutemen don't have the firepower to keep up. The Warriors are a long-term 5-1 ATS in August games while UMass is 0-3 ATS in August games. Hawaii also is 3-1 ATS the past 2 seasons in road games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. The Minutemen are getting attention here in the revenge spot but the value is with the road dog. 8* HAWAII |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 50 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) vs New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI @ 6:30 ET Sunday - The Patriots have only gained 155 yards on 54 carries in this post-season. The Falcons have not only gained 200 yards on 59 carries in the post-season, their rushing attack was stronger at the end of the regular season too. Atlanta has averaged 148.4 yards per game on the ground over their last 5 games. The reason I am talking so much about the ground game here is because I do feel it could be a key in this game. Both teams are led by tremendous quarterbacks with Tom Brady for the Patriots and Matt Ryan for the Falcons and each head coach knows the key to winning this game is keeping those guys off of the field. That said, a heavy dose of ground game is likely to be key from both sides here and I expect Atlanta to enjoy more success on the ground which could be the key here. Another angle I like is certainly the underdog mentality (hunger) of the Falcons here and the fact that QB Ryan has faced the Pats just twice in his career (2009 and 2013) and Atlanta lost both match-ups. Not only is it double revenge in that regard but Falcons coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator with Seattle when the Seahawks faced the Patriots two years ago in the Super Bowl. Keep in mind Seattle was up 24-14 through 3 quarters in that game before the Pats rallied for the win in the 4th quarter. That experience will help Quinn here and the Falcons are "only" a 3 point dog here with good reason. This is an excellent football team and the Patriots strength of schedule this year has not been as strong as Atlanta's schedule. Also, for all that is made of how "dominant" the Patriots are (and certainly their amazing seasons and overall playoff performances are noteworthy) they are only 4-4 in their 8 Super Bowl appearances and the 4 wins have ALL come by 4 points or less. The aforementioned win over Seattle was the only 4 point win and the other 3 all came by just 3 points. Of course the Patriots are the "popular choice" here due to the public loving to back the "been there, done that" mentality but I really like the Quinn angle here against the Pats and the fact that New England is without Gronkowski and the fact that Atlanta will play up the underdog "us against the world" mentality for this game. QB Ryan has had a phenomenal season and, with all due respect to Brady, the Falcons weapons at the skill positions (guys like Julio Jones just to name one) are likely to be the ones that make the big plays necessary to win this game. I'll grab the points because in 8 Super Bowls the Patriots have only one win by more than 3 points so certainly there is value in having the field goal on our side BUT certainly I am playing this expecting the outright win for the underdog. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS plus the points |
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01-22-17 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 17-36 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 24 m | Show |
PA Insider Top Play - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 6:40 ET Sunday - New England knocked off Pittsburgh earlier this season but the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger in that game. I know it is difficult to knock the Patriots but, one thing I will say is that they sure got a fortunate match-up last week. The only reason Houston was in New England is because Oakland fell apart once they lost their QB. That is what allowed a Texas team with a nightmare (Osweiler) at QB to venture up to Foxboro. Finally, this week, New England will be tested and it could be tough on them as they have had so many easy match-ups since Tom Brady returned early this season after his 4-game suspension. The Pats rarely have been challenged and arguably, their toughest match-ups did not end up impressing. The Patriots, in addition to facing the Steelers at Pittsburgh when Roethlisberger was on the shelf, had only two other truly tough games that were home games this season. In those, they lost to Seattle and they snuck by Baltimore by 7 points as a 6 point favorite. As usual, the Patriots are a public team and very few people will want to bet against Brady and coach Belichick in Foxboro in January. However, if any team can knock them off there, it is this Steelers team and they are healthy again at the skill positions and come into this game having won 9 straight games! Pittsburgh's defense has been phenomenal in their last 6 road games as they've allowed 310 yards or less in all 6 games. Of course the Steelers want revenge badly against the "mighty Pats" who always seem to find their way to the top and that only intensifies the defensive effort here. Keep in mind too that New England was okay without Rob Gronkowski for getting past a team like the Texans but facing the Steelers is a much tougher task! Pittsburgh has faced the tougher strength of schedule this season and the Patriots are in for a war in this one. I do expect the Steelers to win this one outright but I will, of course, grab all the available points as that is where the huge value is in this one, the generous points. 10* PITTSBURGH STEELERS plus the points Sunday evening |
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
AFC Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET Sunday - Of course one has to respect the Chiefs and their 12-4 record but Kansas City benefited greatly from a positive turnover margin and because their special teams play is very strong. However, Pittsburgh is the stronger overall team and that should punch the Steelers ticket to the AFC Championship Game by the time this one is in the books. The Steelers, based on yardage, rank 7th in the league on offense and 12th in the league on defense. By comparison, the Chiefs rank 20th on offense and 24th on defense. Now you can see why the special teams and turnover margin have been such huge keys for the Chiefs this season. Now look for KC to be exposed by a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Steelers already hammered the Chiefs 43 to 14 in the regular season and Pittsburgh enters this game having won 8 straight games. The Steelers offensive weaponry finally has "all hands on deck" and, in the 2nd straight game with everyone available (all skilled position starters) it is probable that Pittsburgh will prove to be even tougher to stop than they were last week against Miami. The Chiefs get a lot of "line shading" here because of their history at Arrowhead Stadium but note that Kansas City went an ugly 1-4 ATS in their home games against non-divisional foes this season! Also, the Chiefs are a long-term 2-11 ATS in playoff games. I am also well-aware of Andy Reid's long-term history of success when off of a bye week but the Steelers are the superior team on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs truly got here with some "smoke and mirrors" this season. 10* Top Play PITTSBURGH Sunday night |
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01-15-17 | Packers +6 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
Texas Insider - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:40 ET - Most people aren't giving the Packers a chance here and I realize they do have some injury issues, particularly in the secondary, that are impacting here. However, what many people don't realize is that the "anointed one" with the Cowboys is really Ezekiel Elliott rather than Dak Prescott. Dallas is where they are today because they have a powerful running game and because certainly the ball bounced their way on a number of occasions (particularly early this season) that helped give them the momentum and confidence to get this point. The fact is that all the success that came from those two factors has masked the fact that their passing attack ranks just 23rd in the league. For comparison sake, note that the Packers passing attack ranks 7th in the league. Also, the Green Bay run defense ranks 9th so that matches up well with the Cowboys ground attack which ranks 2nd in the league. As for the Cowboys the concern on defense is their pass defense which ranks 26th in the league. The way I am approaching this game is have a veteran QB (Aaron Rodgers) who has plenty of weapons even with WR Jordy Nelson out, and he's attack a weak pass defense. I have a strong ground defense (Packers) that can focus on slowing down Elliott. I'll challenge the rookie QB (Prescott) to beat Green Bay through the air because, let's not forget, this is his first ever playoff game and he is facing a team that already saw him earlier this season and certainly is fired up about the rematch. The Packers have won 7 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Cowboys have failed to cover 5 of their last 6 games and yet they are the popular choice here as this line is now all the way up to a 6 as of the night before the game. The Packers are on an 8-3 ATS run when playing with revenge. The Cowboys aren't exactly a "covering machine" at home and, in fact, are on an 11-21 ATS run in games played on turf. 10* GREEN BAY plus the points Sunday afternoon |
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01-14-17 | Texans +16 v. Patriots | 16-34 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
Saturday Night Special - Rickenbach NFL 8* Houston Texans (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - No one will give the Texans a chance here and I completely understand that, and yet, it has given us very strong line value on Houston in this match-up. Even though hosting a wounded Oakland team last week is nothing like facing a powerful Patriots team in New England, last week's win did quite a lot for Houston. It gives the Texans added confidence in QB Brock Osweiler and it allowed the defense to stay "in the zone" as Houston's D continues to be among the most dominating units in the league. That said, and especially with consideration to the factor that Rob Gronkowski is out, I don't buy into the Pats being more than two TD's better than the Texans. I am certainly well aware of the fact that the Texans go ripped by New England earlier this season and that Tom Brady didn't even play in that game. However, that was a turnover-fueled victory for the Patriots. Houston turned the ball over 3 times (compared to 0 for the Pats) and that was a key factor in why New England won 27-0 at Houston despite the yardage being very nearly equal! In fact, the Texans have now held the Patriots to 313 yards or less in each of the last 2 meetings and it helps that this will be their third time seeing New England in the past 13 months. The Pats, as a result of being 13-3 ATS this season, are simply over-priced here. The Texans defense is fired up about this chance at redemption against the Patriots and the offense is rejuvenated thanks to 4 wins in their last 5 games and Osweiler looking like he definitely learned a few things after being relegated to back-up duty. In the divisional round, #1 seeds have gone just 7-19 ATS the last 13 years. The Pats, of course, are the #1 seed in the AFC, and they have no reason to try and "run up the score" here and against a solid Texans defense I doubt they'll even have the chance. Grab the huge points as this Texans team come into this one with some newfound confidence and a defense that, deservedly, has a swagger in its step! 8* HOUSTON plus the big points Saturday evening |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Falcons | 20-36 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Saturday Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 4:35 ET - I have a ton of respect for the Falcons offense but they're facing a red hot Seattle defense and, make no bones about it, the Atlanta defense is a major weakness. That said, the Seahawks have been moving the ball very well and I just don't see the porous defense of the Falcons as being capable of stopping them. Based on yardage allowed, the Falcons rank 25th in the NFL on defense while the Seahawks rank 5th in the league! Another concern for Atlanta here is that they haven't tough competition since their very first game of December. That was against the Chiefs and Atlanta lost even though they were at home. Since the, the Falcons played 4 games against the two worst teams in their division and the two worst teams in the Seahawks division. The combined record of those 4 teams was 19-45. That certainly didn't help Atlanta in terms of being "game ready" for this one and sometimes the week off can actually hurt a teams rhythm on offense. As for Seattle, they've had to face the top two teams in the NFC North in the past few weeks. The Packers (an ugly loss but an aberration for the Seahawks) and the Lions combined to go 19-13 in the regular season. Seattle did beat the Patriots in New England earlier this season and they are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season! The Seahawks also won all 4 games this season when facing a team with a winning record and Seattle is 10-2 SU on turf this season! Surprisingly, the Falcons are only 1-4 ATS this season in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Atlanta has trouble "putting teams away" and has gone 8-18 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons and 2-8 ATS when off of a win against a division rival and the Falcons are a long-term 3-11 ATS in playoff games. It's hard to argue against the better defense here and a more "proven team" in terms of playoff experience. The Hawks are hungry! 8* SEATTLE plus the points Saturday afternoon |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +7 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 33 m | Show |
National Championship Game - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - Alabama, it goes without saying, is a phenomenal football program. There is no doubt about that fact. However, that doesn't mean that value can't be had in going against them. The Crimson Tide are here because they got by Washington last weekend. I want to remind everyone though that the Huskies come from the Pac-12 and that conference went 0-6 ATS in the bowls! In other words, one could argue that Alabama certainly should have done a lot more damage than they did against Washington last week. Yes, the Crimson Tide did get enough for the cover in the 24-7 win but their offense only gained 326 yards in that game. Believe it or not, that was the 4th time in their last 6 games that Alabama has been held to less than 373 yards of offense! That said, is the firing of offensive coordinator Kiffin and his replacement with Sarkisian really going to be a good thing before a huge match-up with a high-quality foe? I highly doubt that! The Clemson D just stepped up HUGE against the Buckeyes last week in their 31-0 win as the Tigers held Ohio State to just 215 yards. In fact, in 4 of their last 6 games, Clemson held their opponents under 278 yards of offense! I expect the Tigers, playing with revenge and playing their best defense of the season, to bring their "A game" again in this one. As for their offense, it is one of the most dynamic in the country and Clemson has also been amazingly consistent. They have averaged 502.9 yards per game this season and, they have gained over 441 yards per game in each of their last 12 games. While one could argue that Alabama faced the tougher schedule this season, the SEC overall was not nearly as strong as it was in past seasons. The "playing field" here has truly leveled out and the value is with the revenging dog getting a full TD in this one. The Tigers are on a 6-1 ATS run as an underdog and a long-term run of 31-14 ATS as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Crimson Tide had just 18 first downs in last year's Championship game while allowing 31. The Tigers had to get in the backdoor for that cover but the stats do tell a better story here. This year I would not be surprised to see the outright upset and will gladly grab the big points here. 10* Top Play CLEMSON on Monday Night |
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01-08-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Game of the Year Sunday - 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:40 ET - The Packers secondary is banged up. Yes it will be cold in Green Bay Sunday but no precipitation is expected and winds are not expected to be significant enough to impact the aerial attack. In other words, look for the Pack to struggle to stop Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr. and company in this one. The Packers do enter the post-season on a 6-game winning streak but they've certainly had some good fortune on their side during the streak and they have allowed over 1,000 passing yards in their last 3 games! Of course Aaron Rodgers has been the key as he's seemingly willed this Packers team to victories throughout this winning streak. I have plenty of respect for Rodgers and his weapons in the receiving game as well but this Giants defense is going to give them some problems. New York is one of the top defenses in the league against the run and they also came on strong against the pass as the season went on. In their last 4 games of the regular season, the Giants allowed only 834 passing yards total! I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay beat the Giants earlier this season but, keep in mind, New York had a lot of new faces on defense early this season and it took this unit quite some time to jell. The Giants loss at Green Bay earlier this season dropped New York to 2-3 on the season. Since then, the Giants have gone 9-2. Also, the Giants have allowed only 15.3 points per game in their last 10 games. Green Bay has allowed an average of 25.3 points per game in their last 3 games. Also, the Giants have allowed more than 24 points only one time this entire season. The Packers have allowed 24 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Green Bay's average points per game allowed during this stretch was 26.5 points in the 10 games. Now for some history that is hard not to ignore here. Eli Manning and the Giants have been a machine in the playoffs as long as they've avoided their nemesis (division rival Eagles). Philadelphia knocked New York out of the post-season in 2006 and 2008. Prior to that, way back in 2005, Eli Manning made his playoff debut and he had an ugly game. So chalking up 1 game to the rookie experience and 2 games to facing a hated division rival that always gives them trouble, how have the Giants fared in all their other post-season experiences with Manning? 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS. 7 of the games saw the Giants as a dog and, as you can see, they won all 7 outright. The lone time they were a small fave they won by 22 points! Green Bay lost to the Giants for two of those post-season New York victories and they would love to get revenge here. However, the defense (including the cluster of injuries that have hurt the secondary so badly) is going to prove to be the Packers downfall here. Green Bay is 3-5 in their last 8 playoff games and, in their last 5 home playoff games, the Pack covered the spread just once, that's 20% ATS! The Giants are 5-1 ATS when off of a win against a division rival and look for them to add another cover to that mark here. 10* Top Play NEW YORK GIANTS late afternoon Sunday |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Sunday - Rickenbach NFL 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1:05 ET - The biggest favorite on the board for Wild Card weekend and I am laying the points here. This huge line is absolutely justified. This is a revenge spot for the Steelers as they lost at Miami earlier this season and Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in that game and certainly wasn't himself. Look for Big Ben and Pittsburgh to get revenge here as they have won 7 straight games and they were on a 5-1 ATS run before the meaningless season finale where they did beat Cleveland but, of course, were resting starters. The Dolphins, other than their win over the Steelers, did not beat a single team this season that had more than 7 wins! Also, Miami's last 4 losses all came by 13 points or more. They're more than capable of getting blown out, especially when facing  revenging opponent that now has the huge edge at QB. While Ryan Tannehill is out for Miami, Big Ben is fired up for this rematch. The Steelers have the superior weapons all over the field in looking at this match-up. Miami head coach Adam Gase certainly deserves some credit for getting this Dolphins team to the playoffs but this is not a good match-up for them at all and, again, their only win against a team that didn't end up with a losing record this season was when they beat Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger basically playing the 2nd half on one leg! It's payback time in a big way here. Miami is 2-6 ATS when off of a loss against a division rival and also 0-3 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. The Steelers are 2-0 ATS in recent seasons and 23-12 ATS long-term when they are a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* PITTSBURGH early Sunday afternoon |
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01-07-17 | Lions +8 v. Seahawks | Top | 6-26 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
NFL Value Game of the Week Saturday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - No one will want the Lions here and you know what that means at this time of year. Yes, I am being a contrarian and grabbing Detroit plus the big points. Of course it is certainly not without support! One of the biggest keys is that if you look at who Seattle has played this year you become much less impressed with them. The Seahawks certainly benefited in their own division because the Rams and 49'ers were awful this season. Those teams combined for a 6-26 record this season. Of course the other divisional foe was Arizona and Seattle did not defeat the Cardinals in either game. The Seahawks lost at home to the Cards just a few weeks ago and they tied the Cardinals at Arizona much earlier this season in a game where Seattle didn't even deserve to get the tie. The point is that Seattle ended up 3-2-1 in a division where the other teams were a combined 13-34-1. That is NOT impressive. Outside of their division the Seahawks lost to New Orleans and Tampa Bay (non-playoff teams with combined 16-16 record). Seattle did get to face a couple playoffs team and most of the results were not overly impressive when you try to justify laying big points here with the Seahawks. They beat Houston by 2 points, beat Atlanta by 2 points and lost at Green Bay by 28 points! Their only impressive win was of course the revenging win they got at New England in a primetime game where they played their best game of the season and managed to hang on for the win. While Detroit struggled to finish out the season those defeats against 3 straight playoff teams truly "swung" on big plays that shifted the momentum in each game. The playoffs are here, the Lions are battle-tested, and they'll hang in this one all the way. Detroit does have a solid defense and they only lost 2 games by more than 7 points this entire season. The Lions have some playoff experience under coach Jim Caldwell (lost by just 4 at Dallas two years ago) and the Seahawks are getting priced here as if they're the powerhouse they were two and three seasons ago when they made the Super Bowl each year. This team is not as that level. Grab the value here with the big dog. 10* Top Play DETROIT LIONS Saturday night |
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01-07-17 | Raiders +4 v. Texans | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator Saturday - Rickenbach NFL 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Houston Texans @ 4:35 ET - Both teams have issues at QB and I'll gladly take the points here. Houston is expected to go with Brock Osweiler because of Tom Savage's concussion. Oakland is expected to go with Connor Cook because back-up QB Matt McGloin injured his shoulder. Of course regular starting QB Derek Carr is out with a broken fibula. Everyone is likely to flock to Houston here because of having the home field edge and because of the Raiders being down to their 3rd string QB. However, the Texans offense is such a weakness (especially with Osweiler running the show) that I would not be surprised to see Oakland hang around throughout this game and then spring the upset late. Even if Houston does hang on for a win here I expect it to be by 3 points or less. Remember Oakland got the comeback win over the Texans in the Mexico City game not too long ago. Houston is only 7-7 in their last 14 games and every single win was decided by just a single possession. The average margin of victory in the 7 Texans wins was just 4 points. Houston's last 6 wins have seen 4 decided by a field goal or less. Look for everyone on the Raiders to "step up" and bring a huge effort because they know they have a rookie QB to support. Sometimes that brings the best of efforts out of an entire team and that is what I expect here as Cook makes his first-ever NFL start. The Raiders are a long-term 35-15 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. They are also 7-1 ATS the past 3 seasons when off of a loss to a division rival. The Texas are 0-5 ATS this season when off of a game against a divisional foe. 8* OAKLAND Saturday afternoon |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +7 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs USC Trojans in Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA @ 5 ET Monday - The Nittany Lions, as usual, are getting no respect. The Buckeyes got invited to the CFB Playoffs, instead of Penn State who beat them head to head and then also won the Big Ten Championship over Wisconsin. Regardless of the "ugly" win over Ohio State and the fact that they had some "luck" in the rally over the Badgers for the conference championship, this is a strong Nittany Lions team. They are confident, their defense is solid, their offense is surging, AND perhaps most important of all, they're playing with a chip on their shoulder here. They feel disrespected and are out to make a statement in this game by knocking off USC. The Trojans certainly got hot this season and I have plenty of respect for them. However, the Pac-12 has looked weaker and weaker the more the bowl performances have come in. Washington couldn't move the ball in their bowl game. Colorado got crushed by Oklahoma State in their bowl game. Washington State lost to Minnesota in their bowl game. Utah won their bowl game by only 2 points and Stanford won their bowl game by just 2 points. The point is that these are the types of teams that USC played all season long and yet now they're supposed to beat the Big Ten Champion Nittany Lions by more than a TD. I feel the Trojans are being over-rated here. They built up their stats with games against Pac-12 weaklings like UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, and Arizona State. Those teams had a combined record of 21-39 this season. In tougher games away from home, the Trojans lost at Utah and at Stanford and got absolutely crushed in a neutral site game versus Alabama. Does that sound like a team a that is a full TD better than the Big Ten champs? I say no way. Another thing that is hard to put a measurement on is momentum and confidence and moxie. Penn State has all 3 as they have rallied from huge deficits to win the biggest of games and they've won 9 straight games after a 2-2 start. As you can see, the Nittany Lions have momentum, confidence and they "never say never" as shown in the Big Ten Championship Game. Look for USC to drop to 0-5 in their last 5 neutral field games. As for the Nittany Lions, I look for them to improve to 5-1 SU in neutral site games but I'll definitely grab all the points I can get with this dangerous dog. They have averaged 328 passing yards per game in their last 4 games and look for RB Saquon Barkley to have a huge game as he is refreshed after the break. 10* PENN STATE |
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01-02-17 | Iowa +3 v. Florida | 3-30 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
Outback Bowl - Rickenbach 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Florida Gators @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL @ 1 ET Monday - The Hawkeyes defense (17.9 points per game) is just as good as the Gators. In fact, Iowa allowed a total of just 23 points in their last 3 games of the regular season. Florida has allowed 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. While the Gators wrapped up the season with back to back losses, the Hawkeyes come into the bowl game riding the momentum of 3 straight wins and they scored 34 points per game in their final two games of the season. The Gators offense has been held to 16 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Florida's injury list is also a much longer one than that of Iowa. The Gators are banged up and the Hawkeyes are hot at the right time. Iowa is on a 6-3 ATS run in games where the line is in a range of +3 to -3 and Florida is on a 2-4 ATS run in games where the line is anywhere from +3 to -3. Big value with the defensive dog in this one. 8* IOWA |
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01-02-17 | Western Michigan v. Wisconsin -8.5 | 16-24 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
Cotton Bowl - Rickenbach 8* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Western Michigan @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX @ 1 ET Monday - Western Michigan is 13-0...and yet they've played no one. Seriously. With all due respect to the Broncos for not faltering and coming up with an amazing undefeated record, let's keep in mind that they play in the MAC which is one of the weakest conferences in CFB. The Broncos toughest games this season were as a 3 point dog versus Northwestern and a 3 point favorite with Illinois. They did dominate an Illini team that went on to go 3-9 on the season but they only snuck by the Wildcats by a single point and that Northwestern team is a far cry from the strength of the Big Ten team their facing Monday. Wisconsin is absolutely one of the best Big Ten teams and they have a tremendous defense that is in a foul mood after the way they failed to close the door on Penn State in the Big Ten Championship. That means a huge effort is coming from the Badgers D here and they often dominate teams (allowed 17 points or less in 10 of their first 12 games this season). The Badger offense can pound the ball on the ground and the Broncos D line is going to have trouble with the powerful Badgers O line. Wiscy ran the ball extremely well to wrap up the season. Western Michigan's D did allow 200+ rushing yards in 5 of their last 10 games despite facing a weak schedule. To put that in perspective, the Badgers D (even with facing a tough schedule) never allowed more than 185 rushing yards this entire season. Look for the Badgers to dominate this one in the trenches and that should lead to a victory by a double digit margin. 8* WISCONSIN |
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01-01-17 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher Top - Rickenbach NFL Sunday Night 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - No matter what happens earlier in the day Sunday this game will of course decided who wins the NFC North. However, it is also quite likely that this game will end up resulting in the loser staying home for the post-season! That said, this is a huge game no matter what and I expect it to be a huge battle. That is all the more reason that there is tremendous line value with being able to grab the Lions at +3.5 in this game. Getting the home dog in that price range is a huge edge. Green Bay enters this game on a 5-game winning streak but 3 of the games were against teams that will not end the season with a winning record. Also the Packers have benefited greatly from turnovers in many of their recent wins. That is why they keep on winning despite their biggest overall yardage edge in any of their last 4 games being just 2 yards (twice). The Packers actually were outgained in the other two games! A high total is posted on this game and the Lions are 7-0 (ATS and SU) in games with a posted total of 49.5 or more points the past 3 seasons. Detroit has lost the past two weeks but they were on the wrong end of the turnovers (2-0) in each game. Green Bay rates the better offense but is Aaron Rodgers really healthy? Also, the Lions do rate the edge on defense and special teams. Don't be surprised if the Lions get revenge for their loss at Green Bay earlier this season. However, I am certainly grabbing all the points I can get here in case the Lions fall just short. Home dog value! 10* DETROIT |
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01-01-17 | Giants v. Redskins -7.5 | 19-10 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Washington Redskins (-) vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET Sunday - Yes this line is a little bit high (considering it has moved above a 7) but is absolutely justified. The Redskins don't completely control their destiny but they're about as close as you can get truly. Washington simply needs to win this game and they should absolutely be in the playoffs because the only way they wouldn't make it is if Detroit and Green Bay finished in a tie Sunday night and, of course, that is highly unlikely. That said, the Redskins actually catch a break by matching up with the Giants here. New York is already locked into the #5 seed in the NFC and it would be foolish for New York to risk injuring guys when this game can do nothing for their playoff position. That means a hungry Redskins team with an ultra-dangerous offense should hold the upper hand in this one. Washington's offense ranks as one of the tops in the league thanks to QB Cousins and the Giants strength is their defense but I can't see them being ultra-intense in this game considering their playoff position is already set and they need to stay healthy for next week. The Redskins are on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional action. The Giants are off of a loss at Philadelphia last week and are actually a surprising 1-6 SU (and 1-5-1 ATS) when off of a loss against a division rival. 8* WASHINGTON |
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01-01-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +4.5 | Top | 37-27 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET Sunday - This is another one of those "danger spots" for a playoff bound team. Even though the Chiefs have locked in a playoff spot they still know that a win coupled with a Raiders loss would give them the AFC West Division. That said, Kansas City has all the pressure on them here while the Chargers would love nothing more than to make sure that they're hated division rival does not win the division. San Diego also has revenge from a loss at KC very early this season where the Chargers blew a big lead and then lost in OT. Look for San Diego to be amped up for this opportunity as it's the best way to finish their season (by making sure the Chiefs don't win the division) after the disappointment of losing at Cleveland last week. As ugly as San Diego's overall season record is, they've been "in" virtually every game this season and 5 of their last 9 losses all have come by 4 points or less. All but one of their 10 losses has been decided by 8 points or less. The Chargers will bring their A game this week and the Chiefs are one of the most over-rated 11-5 teams in league history as, based on yardage, they rank 20th on offense and 24th on defense in the league! San Diego actually ranks higher in both categories and the Chiefs special teams edge isn't enough to warrant them being this sizable of a favorite on the road. Ugly home dog likely to get the job done once again in a season finale (they beat Miami by 16 in LY's season finale). 10* SAN DIEGO |
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01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -4.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - This rivalry means a ton to the Eagles and especially the Philadelphia fans. The Eagles players, coaching staff, and upper management are certainly all well aware of this as well. What that means is that, even though Dallas is the team going to the playoffs and they have already locked up the #1 seed in the NFC, you'd better believe that Philly is going to "Bring It" on Sunday. For the Eagles, this is their Super Bowl. For the Cowboys, this is the one game where they walk the fine line of trying to keep starters "game ready" before the two week layoff while also getting the back-ups some work. Long story short, the Eagles want to win and are highly amped up about finishing this season on a high note for rookie QB Carson Wentz, first year head coach Doug Pederson, and the entire organization and it's rabid fan base. Remember this is a big revenge game for the Eagles too because they never should have lost the game in Dallas earlier this season. They had a huge lead but then relinquished it and lost in overtime. It is time for payback here. That payback means a lot to the Eagles while the Cowboys have "bigger and better things" to look ahead too. Dallas could care or less about this game! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson +2.5 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Playoff Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes in Fiesta Bowl @ University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ @ 7 ET - I am not going to waver from my pre-season prediction which did have Clemson in the national championship game. That said, I do expect them to grab the outright victory in this match-up but will certainly take any and all available points here! Both the Buckeyes and the Tigers lost a lot of key talent from last season's teams and yet all the younger players certainly gained valuable experience this season as the year went on and each team is here after losing only 1 game apiece this entire season. The key for Clemson is their dynamic offense as they did return 8 starters on that side of the ball and QB Deshaun Watson has delivered another huge season. The Tigers have the much better passing attack in this game (they average 333 passing yards per game whereas the Buckeyes average only 221 passing yards a game). Certainly I have a ton of respect for coach Urban Meyer and his long-term success (including bowl games) in his career. However, the Buckeyes loss to Penn State (coupled with the fact that the Nittany Lions won the Big Ten Championship) means Ohio State truly shouldn't even be here. Trust me I understand how the system works but a team that won the conference (PSU) and also beat the Buckeyes head to head is the team that should represent in the playoffs. I am not saying that this is on the minds of OSU, not in the least. I am just saying that "turnabout is fair play" and the Buckeyes didn't deserve to get their ticket punched to the playoffs and I look for the bounces of the ball to go Clemson's way in this one. The Tigers can certainly "make their own breaks" in this one as the speed of their offense all over the field is going to give the vaunted defense of OSU plenty of trouble in this one. Also, don't underestimate the strength of the defensive line of of the Tigers. Their rush defense is arguably just as good as that of the Buckeyes and, in terms of QB pressure, Clemson had 46 sacks this season while Ohio State only had 26 sacks. Looking at their final 7 games of the season, the Buckeyes did have 2 blowout wins but the other 5 games included a pair of overtime victories, a pair of wins by a combined total of only 5 points, and the loss to the Nittany Lions. This Ohio State team is clearly not the dominant team of old and I like Clemson (only loss was by a single point in a game they out-yarded Pitt by 166 yards) to be in this one all the way and to get the W thanks to their potent offense leading the way. The Tigers are on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog and long-term it is a 58-35 ATS run in the underdog role. 10* CLEMSON plus the points Saturday night |
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12-31-16 | Washington +14.5 v. Alabama | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Playoff Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* Washington Huskies (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide in Peach Bowl @ Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA @ 3 ET - Similar to Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder, Washington head coach Chris Peterson has always enjoyed special success (and almost seems to relish) when in the role of an underdog. Peterson certainly has his wish here as he and the Huskies are huge underdogs against Alabama and are basically being given "no chance" to upset the Crimson Tide by most prognosticators. While I am certainly not calling for the outright upset here I am saying that the 2 TD spread should prove to be far too generous. Peterson, who of course was with Boise State before coming to Washington, has gone 6-3 SU (and ATS) in bowls. This includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark for Peterson as a dog and 2 of those bowl ATS victories as dogs were outright upsets! After the Huskies lone loss this season, they responded by winning their final 3 games of the season by a combined score of 130 to 45. Two of those teams had combined records of 18-5 at the time Washington played them and those opponents were certainly two of the top teams in the PAC-12 this season. Now much is being made of the strength of the SEC and that the Huskies have no chance against an SEC foe. However, the SEC teams have gone just 3-4 so far in these bowls and the only win that came by double digits was Tennessee yesterday and they played a Nebraska team without their star QB (and others) so the big Vols win was not a shock. Certainly the Crimson Tide are not just "any" SEC team but, keep in mind, these teams that have under-performed in the bowls include the same type of SEC teams that Alabama beat to get to their 13-0 record. The Crimson Tide did allow 400+ yards of passing to Arkansas and Ole Miss in the regular season and Huskies QB Jake Browning has had a tremendous season. Washington had 300+ yards of passing in 5 of its last 7 games before it simply relied on its ground game to dispatch Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship Game. The Huskies aerial attack can absolutely keep them in this game and the Washington defense allowed just 17.2 points per game and 316.2 yards per game this season. Most everyone is expecting a complete thrashing here but they are underestimating the coaching ability of Peterson and the talent level that this veteran group (returned 15 starters this year) of Huskies has fired up and ready to for this big game opportunity. 8* WASHINGTON |
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12-30-16 | Florida State v. Michigan -7 | Top | 33-32 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
#1 Bowl Top Side - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (-) vs Florida State Seminoles in Orange Bowl @ Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL @ 8 ET Friday - Many seem surprised to see Michigan as a TD favorite over Florida State in this match-up. As a result, it also seems that the Seminoles are an extremely popular choice in this game. Certainly the dogs have dominated the bowls thusfar but what I see in this match-up is a game that will be dominated by the defense of the Wolverines. Michigan allowed just 12.5 points per game and only 252.7 yards per game this season. The Wolverines allowed only 280 yards per game in their two losses this season. Compare this with Florida State's three losses where their porous defense allowed over 500 yards in every single game! The Noles also are the much more banged up team heading into this bowl game as one can plainly see by comparing the two injury reports of these teams. All of Michigan's wins this season came by a double digit margin and fiery head coach Harbaugh is hungry (and has his team hungry) after that tough OT loss to Ohio State that prevented "bigger things" for the Wolverines. Can you imagine the pent up anger and frustration that this Wolverines defense is about to unleash on the Seminoles in this game? This is a fired up team and I also expect a big game from a much healthier Wilton Speight (QB) in this game for Michigan. It's amazing he even tried to play against Ohio State with the shoulder injury. He's had 5 weeks since then to heal up and a solid Wolverines ground game will also keep the FSU defense off balance. Don't be fooled by the solid season-ending performance of FSU as they faced 3 weak offenses. This is an FSU defense that, prior to that 3-0 ATS run had given up 450 yards or more in 5 of their 7 prior games and the two games they didn't were one played in a hurricane and one played against the weak offense of Wake Forest. Make no mistake, the Seminoles defense is vulnerable here and the Wolverines defense is anything but! Look for the Michigan D, their solid edges in the trenches, their special teams advantage, and their high level of motivation to prove to be the big keys in this one. FSU is on a 1-4 ATS run in games played on a neutral field. The Wolverines are 5-2 SU and ATS in games played after a loss to a conference rival. 10* MICHIGAN |
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12-30-16 | North Carolina +3 v. Stanford | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
1st of 3 star rated Bowl Picks Friday. The other 2 are 10* Top Plays. Here is the 8*: Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (+) vs Stanford Cardinal in Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX @ 2 ET - The Cardinal finished up the season winning 5 straight games so they certainly appear to be the "play on" team here based on momentum. However, those 5 wins came against a 5-7 team, a pair of 4-8 teams, and a pair of 3-9 teams. In fact, the only challenging opponents that Stanford has faced in their last 10 games were Washington and Washington State. The Cardinal got blasted by a combined 86-22 in those games. While the Tar Heels are without RB Elijah Hood in this game (medical reasons), the decision on the part of Stanford's Christian McCaffrey to "skip" this game because he is preparing for the NFL draft is the bigger blow! Not only does that hurt the Cardinal mentally, it truly crushes an offense that is otherwise "pedestrian" anyway! Stanford just does not move the ball well and QB Keller Chryst is more of a "game manager" QB who is just asked to not make mistakes while the Cardinal try to pound away with their ground game. I am well aware of the Tar Heels defense being a weakness but we've seen time and time again in this bowl season that lesser defenses have been able to rise to the occasion and shut down sub-par offensive units. North Carolina is not as impacted by losing Hood for this game because their offense revolves around QB Mitch Trubisky anyway and he has a 28-4 TD-INT ratio. He and the Tar Heels are very hungry for this bowl win and they went 8-3 this season after losing their season opener and one of their losses came by just a single point. After losing to NC State in their season finale, look for North Carolina to come up big in the Sun Bowl. The Heels went 4-1 SU against teams with a winning record this season and I look for them to drop the Cardinal to 0-3 SU and ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-29-16 | Oklahoma State +3 v. Colorado | Top | 38-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
Bowl Insider Top Play Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Colorado Buffaloes in the Alamo Bowl @ the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX @ 9 ET Thursday - The Cowboys certainly have more bowl experience. This is the Buffaloes first bowl since 2007 whereas Oklahoma State is in its 11th straight bowl. Certainly OSU is looking to atone for last year's poor result in the Sugar Bowl as they lost 48 to 20 to Ole Miss. There are some key match-up edges here. Even though the Buffaloes pass defense was fantastic this season, they lost their defensive coordinator heading into this bowl game as Jim Leavitt took a job in Oregon. The Buffs defense is going to be kept off balance because the Oklahoma State offense is so well-balanced. On the ground they have the elusive speedster in Justice Hill and then the pounding punisher in senior Chris Carson. Their ground game will open things up for the aerial attack on the Colorado defense and OSU QB Mason Rudolph has thrown for 25 TD's and just 4 INT's this season. Overall, Oklahoma State averages nearly 500 yards of offense per game. Even though the Cowboys lost at Oklahoma to wrap up the regular season, they gained over 400 yards. Comparing that to Colorado' last game, the Buffaloes were held to just 163 yards of offense in the Pac-12 Championship game where they were blasted by Washington. The Cowboys have the edge not only on offense but also special teams and there are a lot of OSU fans in Texas...much more than Colorado and, as a result, the site edge here (in San Antonio) also goes to Oklahoma State. The Buffaloes are 0-3 ATS when off of a bye week and the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS this season in games where the line is between +3 and -3. Getting the +3 here with OSU is simply an added bonus as I do expect them to win outright. Grab the +3 here just in case though. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-29-16 | South Florida -10 v. South Carolina | 46-39 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator Thursday - Rickenbach CFB 8* South Florida Bulls (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks in Birmingham Bowl @ Legion Field in Birmingham, AL @ 2 ET Thursday - There is a tremendous energy around the South Florida football program right now. They have a new head coach, Charlie Strong, coming in from Texas. They have a true 2017 Heisman candidate in QB Quinton Flowers who is a tremendous dual-threat quarterback with his running ability. The Bulls have scored at least 30 points in 16 straight games for the longest streak in the nation. That is significant here because the Gamecocks where held to 14 points or less in more than half of their games this season. I certainly respect the fact that South Carolina is an SEC program but looking at strength of schedule on the season, their schedule was truly not much tougher than the one South Florida played. I also know that dogs have dominated these bowls but this is a game where I expect a large favorite with too much offensive firepower (as well as motivation) to simply run away on the scoreboard. USF is fired up about the opportunity to play an SEC team in this bowl game and they want to make up for last year's loss to Western Kentucky in the Miami Beach Bowl. The Bulls are on a 13-5 ATS run as a favorite. The Gamecocks went 1-3 ATS in non-conference action. South Carolina is a young team and this veteran Bulls team has a powerful enough offense (515 ypg) to be the difference maker here. The weakness of USF is on defense but they're fired up here, will be flying all over the field, and the young Gamecocks offense averaged a putrid 336 yards per game this season. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA |
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12-28-16 | West Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -2.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Russell Athletic Bowl ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CFB 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL @ 5:30 ET Wednesday - West Virginia is ranked. Miami is unranked. The Mountaineers went 10-2 on the season. The Hurricanes went 8-4 on the season. With that said, doesn't it look funny to see the Canes as the favorite in this one? Don't be fooled by the line as the fact is that Miami is the better team and when they win (8-4 SU) they also cover (8-4 ATS). Not only are did they go a perfect 8-0 ATS in their 8 SU wins this season, head coach Mark Richt has an incredible 94-45, 68% ATS mark in SU wins in his career. In this particular match-up, the Hurricanes have the edge on defense and special teams while truly the offenses are about equal. The Mountaineers gain more yards but the Canes score more points - a little more efficiency for Miami. As for the defense, West Virginia allowed nearly 500 yards per game in their last 5 games of the season. The Hurricanes only allowed 353.8 yards per game on the season. Miami also wrapped up the regular season allowing only 16 points per game in their last three games. West Virginia benefited greatly from turnovers late in the season. That helped keep points off the board but also masked the fact that the defense was constantly getting gouged for big yardage. The Hurricanes will be able to do plenty of damage here as they piled up yardage late in the season with plenty of big performances from QB Brad Kaaya during this stretch. He ended the season with a solid 23-7 TD-INT ratio. Miami has a long-term mark of 9-4 SU against Big 12 opponents while West Virginia is an ugly 10-22 ATS long-term against ACC opponents. The Mountaineers have lost 7 of their last 9 SU when they are an underdog while the Hurricanes are 19-6 SU the last 25 games in which they were a favorite and, as noted above, head coach Richt has a phenomenal ATS rate in games in which his teams get the SU win. Very low number here and I'll gladly lay it! 8* MIAMI |
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12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Washington State Cougars in Holiday Bowl @ Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA @ 7 ET - We're getting extreme line value here because of the Minnesota suspensions that were then followed by a potential boycott by the Golden Gophers team. All that has simmered down and yet we now have a team getting double digits that originally opened up as less than a TD underdog in this game. Of course the result of all this is some great line value with a team that brings the physicality of a Big Ten unit to this match-up with a Pac 12 team that stumbled down the stretch. I do have a lot of respect for the Cougars offense but the Washington State defense is a definite weakness. Look for Minnesota's offense to take advantage of that and this is a Golden Gophers team that, prior to their loss at Wisconsin in the regular season finale, had not lost a game by more than 7 points this entire season. The Cougars have played the tougher schedule of these two schools this season but Washington State finished the regular season with back to back disappointing losses. The Cougars also didn't travel all that great this season...at least not well enough to warrant this large point spread here. Washington State went 3-2 away from home with only 1 win by more than 5 points. The Cougars last 3 games away from home produced an 0-3 ATS mark. Look for the Golden Gophers to rally around the entire "distraction" and possibly even get the upset here but certainly they should at least get the cover. The Cougars were only 1-3 ATS this season against teams with a winning record and also are on a 1-4 ATS run the past 3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The Golden Gophers are on a 10-2 ATS run when off of a loss against a conference rival and they also went 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA Tuesday |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest v. Temple -11.5 | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Wake Forest in the Military Bowl @ Navy-Marine Corps Stadium in Annapolis, MD @ 3:30 ET Tuesday - Many will be hesitant to lay the big points here because of the Wake Forest defense. However, the Demon Deacons simply are not a very good football team. Their offense is horrible and the only win they had this season against a team that finished the year with more than 4 wins was a victory over Indiana. In that game Wake Forest actually was outgained by the Hoosiers by a margin of 611 to 352! So that right there (outgained by 259 yards!) is actually the Demon Deacons "big win" this season. Now I am well aware of the fact, of course, that Temple has made a coaching change heading into this one but Owls interim head coach Ed Foley will do just fine against Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson as Foley has known him for many years. In fact that actually adds a bit of "spice" to this match-up and the better offense (Temple 35 points per game in their last 12 games) won't hesitate to put up big points to pull away as this game goes on. The Demon Deacons only went 1-3 ATS in non-conference action and the lone cover was the "bogus" one against Indiana. Temple is on an insane 12-0 ATS run and they also want to atone for finishing last season on a down note as they lost to Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. This Owls team finishes up a record-setting season the right way and has all the momentum here. 8* TEMPLE |
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12-26-16 | Lions +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher Monday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET Monday - Certainly the Cowboys are "saying the right things" in terms of wanting to keep playing their starters and keep the momentum going even though they've now locked up the #1 seed in the NFC. However, I just don't see Dallas as being able to truly bring forth the high level of intensity necessary to knock off the Lions in convincing fashion on Monday Night Football. Detroit needs this win and will be the hungrier team. Also, the injuries to quarterbacks Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota Saturday have to heavily weigh on the minds of the Cowboys here. It is now that fine line between maintaining momentum but trying not to get anyone hurt that is in effect for Dallas here. The key value is not only in that plus the hunger of the Lions here, but also the fact that the Cowboys truly haven't been playing all that dominant of late. Dallas has failed to cover 4 straight games and their weakness is their pass defense while the strength of the Lions offense is their aerial attack. Detroit is on a 5-1 SU run and 4-2 ATS run and they did outgain their opponent in each of the two ATS losses but the problem was turnovers as they lost the TO battle 2-0 in each of those games. The Cowboys come into this game with 6 turnovers in their last 3 games and only twice in their last eight games have they won by a margin of more than 6 points. Detroit is 7-3 ATS in games played on turf, 3-0 ATS in Monday night football, and the Lions are 5-1 ATS versus the NFC East. The Cowboys are 7-12 ATS their last 19 games against teams with a winning record and also 10-21 ATS their last 31 games played on turf. The Lions were up 17-7 at halftime in a playoff game in January of 2015 in the most recent game between these teams. That match-up ended up being a 24-20 win for the Cowboys here in Dallas and the Lions have their sights set on payback in this one. 10* DETROIT LIONS Monday |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Monday Top Bowl Play - Rickenbach 10* Top Play N.C. State Wolfpack (-) vs Vanderbilt Commodores in the Independence Bowl @ Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA @ 5 ET Monday - Vandy might fall into that category of "just happy to be here" considering this is their first bowl in 3 years. As for NC State, they are looking to atone for last year's 51-28 Belk Bowl loss to Mississippi State. The Wolfpack did face a tougher schedule than Vanderbilt this season and NC State has outperformed the Commodores even though both teams enter this game at 6-6. Vandy has one of the weaker offenses in the nation and getting hot in their last 2 games of the season doesn't erase the fact that the Commodores were held to 17 points or less in 7 of their first 10 games this season. Also, Vanderbilt is going up against a solid NC State defense that is very strong against the run. The Wolfpack held 9 of their 12 opponents to 24 points or less this season. On offense, though their point totals weren't that impressive as the season wore on, NC State did averaged 282 passing yards per game in their 11 games not played in a hurricane. The reason I say that is the 41 passing yards against Notre Dame in the game played during Hurricane Matthew certainly should be taken out of the equation when evaluating the strength of this NC State offense. The aerial attack as a strength is very significant here because the Commodores weakness on defense is against the pass. Vandy gives up a lot of yard through the air and they don't get many sacks. NC State's defense more than doubled Vanderbilt's sack total for the year. Vandy is on a 4-7 ATS run in non-conference games the past three seasons and also is 1-3 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival. NC State is 12-2 SU (and 10-4 ATS) in non-conference games and also the Wolfpack produced a 5-1 ATS mark when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games and they are 8-1 ATS in games played on turf. 10* Top Play NC STATE Monday |
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12-25-16 | Broncos v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 10-33 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Primetimer Punisher 10* - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:30 ET Sunday - This is a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost a game to the Chiefs they never should have lost when Denver hosted Kansas City 4 weeks ago. However, even though the Broncos have revenge, they also are a team with a lot of issues. Those "issues" boiled over last week as there was some in-fighting on the team between offensive and defensive players after another pathetic effort for the Denver offense. The Broncos have now scored a total of just 13 points plus had 5 turnovers the past two weeks. The issue on Sunday night is that very windy conditions are expected in Kansas City and that means the running game will have some added importance in this one. Denver has run for a total of only 76 yards in their last two games and, overall, the Broncos have been held to 58 rushing yards or less in 4 of their last 7 games. The Chiefs are off of a 158 yard rushing performance against the Titans last week and that is the same Titans team against whom the Broncos could not run against and netted only 18 yards on the ground. With KC losing that game to Tennessee on a last second field goal, the Chiefs are fired up for their final home game of the regular season. Kansas City had won and covered 3 straight prior to that loss. The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS this season when off of a loss and also 4-0 SU (and 3-1 ATS) in divisional games this season. The Broncos are 1-4 SU and ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season and also an ugly 1-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season. Those trends continue here. 10* KANSAS CITY |
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12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -6 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Christmas PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:30 ET - The Steelers will ride the momentum of last week's comeback win over Cincinnati (trailed 20-6) to get some payback against the division rival Ravens. Baltimore got the win in the first match-up but that was QB Ben Roethlisberger's first game back after returning from injury and he clearly was not 100% yet. Big Ben did lead a late comeback in that game but it fell short as the Steelers had fallen into a 21-0 hole in that game. The Ravens have taken 4 straight meetings with the Steelers and overall have won 5 of the last 6 including a playoff game in Pittsburgh in January of 2015. Needless to say, the Steelers have plenty of pent up frustration they are going to unleash today as they look for payback and Pittsburgh comes into this game as the healthier team. After the loss to the Ravens earlier this season the Steelers then lost a heartbreaker to the Cowboys but they have since won and covered 5 straight games and are now one of the hottest teams in the league. The Ravens are off of a win over a fading Eagles team. Prior to barely notching that 1 point victory, Baltimore had allowed 294 passing yards per game in their previous 4 games. Look for Roethlisberger and company to attack the Ravens with great success early and often through the air Sunday. Baltimore is on an 0-3 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Steelers are on a 10-1 SU (and 9-1 ATS) run in December games. Mild weather for late December and light winds with no precipitation will combined to allow one of the top offenses in the league (Pittsburgh) to hold the upper hand in this one. 10* PITTSBURGHÂ |
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12-24-16 | Bengals +2.5 v. Texans | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Houston Texans @ 8:25 ET Saturday - I realize Texans backers deserved a better fate last week as they thoroughly dominated Jacksonville statistically but only won the game by a single point as a 3 point choice over the Jaguars. However, Houston certainly has issues - most prominently the QB position of course - and the Bengals come into this game with nothing to lose and that makes for a dangerous late-season dog. Keep in mind, Cincinnati led the Steelers 20-6 last week before losing while the Texans were down 20-8 last week before rallying for the win over the Jaguars. The point is that there is some value here with the way the latter portions of last week's games involving these teams played out. Also, you can bet that the Bengals paid particular attention to how QB Savage engineered the comeback win for Houston last week when he came on in relief of an ineffective Osweiler. The point is that Savage may not find it so easy this week against a Bengals defense that had allowed just 14.8 points per game in their 4 games prior to allowing 24 to Pittsburgh last week. Of course the Steelers offense is light years ahead of the Texans so that is another important point to consider when looking at this game. Houston does have a solid defense but they have allowed 21.1 points per game in their last 6 games. In other words, it's going to be an all out war for the Texans just to win this game and while I'd love to have +3 in this game I still have no trouble backing the better offense at +2.5 and going against a QB (Savage) whose only NFL regular season action since 2014 came last week against a 2-12 Jaguars team. The Bengals are ticked off of about the loss to the Steelers and are 4-2 SU and ATS when off of a loss against a division rival. The Texans are off of that tight win over the Jags and have gone 0-4 ATS this season when off of a win against a division rival. 8* CINCINNATI |
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12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii +7 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Christmas Eve Bowl Special - Rickenbach CFB 8* Hawaii Warriors (+) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders in Hawaii Bowl @ Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, HI @ 8 ET Saturday - This was the one bowl game that had to wait awhile for a line to come out because of the collarbone injury for QB Brent Stockstill. The fact the line opened up at a 4.5 and then shot up to 7 (a lot of hype around the fact Stockstill is probable now for this game) is giving us great line value with a highly motivated home dog here. The Warriors are playing in their first bowl game since 2010 and get to enjoy playing this game in their backyard. Of course, Middle Tennessee State has the superior record this season but Hawaii has played the tougher schedule. Keep in mind, not only do the Warriors play in a tougher conference than do the Blue Raiders, they also played Power 5 Conference teams California, Michigan, and Arizona earlier this season. I like the fact that after a slow start this season, the Warriors got things going and QB Dru Brown really stepped up once he was handed the starting reins. Keep in mind, Hawaii needed a win over UMass in their season finale to earn a spot in this bowl and they put up 46 points in the win over the Minutemen. Like I said above, the Warriors really wanted to get a bowl berth after missing out on the post-season activities for 5 straight years. That means you have a motivated underdog here and note that MTSU head coach Rick Stockstill is only 1-4 SU and ATS in bowl games. The Blue Raiders lost by 2 TDs in the Bahamas Bowl last year and I don't expect this even longer road trip for them to work out well either! While Hawaii's defense is a weakness they have a history of outscoring teams in situations like this. The Warriors are a long-term 9-5 ATS (and 13-1 SU!) in home games with posted total of 70 points or more. The Blue Raiders have a long-term mark of 2-7 ATS in December games and 1-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in games where MTSU enters with 2 or more weeks of rest. The hungry home dog gets the job done here. 8* HAWAII |
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12-24-16 | Cardinals +8 v. Seahawks | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET Saturday - The Cardinals have had a disappointing season especially considering that expectations were high coming into this season. That said, they still hate the Seahawks and they know they let one get away earlier this season when they finished in a 6-6 tie with Seattle in Arizona. That said, it is time for a little payback Saturday and it doesn't matter what the records are when these teams match-up as the Cards are going to "bring it" when they face the Hawks. Arizona is on a 6-2 ATS run as a road dog in divisional action. Also, the Cardinals are 9-4 ATS long-term in Saturday games. They enter this game on a 2-game losing streak and have gone 2-0 ATS this season when they have entered a game on a losing streak of two or more games. Seattle's last two wins have come against teams that are a combined 10-18 but they've lost their other two games by a combined score of 52 to 15 in games where they were challenged by a quality opponent. I realize their tough record this season says otherwise but the Cardinals are a quality opponent and they'll fight all the way in this game at Seattle. Remember that when they matched up in Arizona earlier this season the Seahawks didn't even make it past mid-field until there were about 5 minutes to go in the game. The Cardinals give Seattle's offense headaches once again in this one as they look for the upset and that has me grabbing the big points in this one. 8* ARIZONA |
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12-24-16 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET Saturday - The Saints are an amazing team in dome games. With their huge win at Arizona last week they have averaged 33.1 points per game in their 8 games played in domes this season. That win over the Cardinals was a dome game and, of course, their first 7 home games are the other part of that equation. Saturday's game in the Superdome is the Saints home finale and I expect their high-octane offense to lead the way once again. The Buccaneers certainly are the better defense when comparing these two teams but they don't have the offense to keep up in this one. This is especially true with the Saints seeking revenge for an ugly 16-11 loss to the Bucs two weeks ago in Tampa Bay. New Orleans is looking to do anything they can to play "spoiler" here against a division rival and, having lost their most recent home game (to Detroit), the last thing the Saints want to have happen is to finish the season on a 2-game home losing streak. Tampa Bay is coming off of a grueling battle with Dallas last week and I expect them to be a little deflated from the loss to the Cowboys and they took a beating up front with the bruising offensive line of the Cowboys plus running back Ezekiel Elliott pounding away. The Saints will be the fresher team and certainly have the stronger offense. In road games with a posted total of 49.5 or more the Buccaneers have gone 1-4 SU and ATS long-term. Also, long-term mark on Saturdays for the Bucs is 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS! The Saints are 8-3 ATS the past 3 seasons when playing with revenge. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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12-24-16 | Redskins v. Bears +3 | 41-21 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Washington Redskins @ 1 ET Saturday - The Bears have been playing hard and I don't expect that to stop in what is their final home game of the season. With their big comeback (lost but got inside the number) against the Packers last week, Chicago is now on a 5-0 (or 4-0-1) ATS run. They have the rest edge here as teams playing today on Saturday are certainly on a short week but it's tougher for the Redskins than the Bears as Washington hosted Carolina on Monday Night! The Skins are on a 1-3 ATS run (and 9-19 ATS long-term) when off of a Monday night game. Also Washington has not fared well as a favorite with a 5-9 ATS mark the past 3 seasons and a 58-91 ATS mark long-term. As a road favorite of 3 points or less the Redskins have gone 6-13 ATS. The Bears are a 5-2 ATS at home this season and 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. Chicago also is on an 11-6 ATS run when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive losses. The Bears are hungry to win their home finale and knowing they can't make the playoffs they would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins hopes of making the post-season as well. In doing so, Chicago would avenge their loss to Washington last December. I do expect the Bears to win this outright but will grab all available points. 8* CHICAGO |
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12-24-16 | Falcons v. Panthers +3 | 33-16 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Carolina Panthers (+) vs Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET Saturday - Short week for both teams since this is a Saturday game and it is particularly short for the Panthers since they visited Washington on Monday Night. However, the fact that Carolina crushed the Redskins 26 to 15 and the fact that the Panthers have forced 8 turnovers has me backing the hungry and surging home dog in this one. The home team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Each of the last two meetings have been in Atlanta and the Falcons won and covered both and that sets this up as a double revenge spot for the Panthers. The last time they hosted Atlanta they blasted them 38 to 0. I definitely respect the Falcons and their top ranked offense but this is a big division rivalry and Atlanta is going from facing the Rams and 49'ers the past two weeks (combined record of 5-23 this season) to facing a surging division rival that is playing "hungry" and has produced solid wins in back to back weeks. Keep in mind, the Falcons had lost 2 of their last 3 before those back to back wins against two of the worst teams in the league. Also, Atlanta is on a 7-17 ATS run as a favorite the past 3 seasons. The Panthers are on a 15-8 ATS run the past three seasons in games where their line ranges from -3 to +3. I am expecting the upset but grabbing the points here! 8* CAROLINA |
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12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5.5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET Saturday - The Jaguars made news for firing their head coach after the 21-20 loss at Houston last week that was actually much uglier than the final score indicates. Even though that was another ugly loss for the Jags, I look for Jacksonville to respond after the firing and give a huge effort for interim coach Doug Marrone in what is the Jaguars final home game of the season. The Titans, of course, have plenty to play for and have won 3 straight games. Tennessee also is a very balance team with a solid offense and respectable defense. However, this is a bit of a "trap game" for the Titans because it's a divisional rival on the road and it is in front of a divisional showdown game with the Texans on deck for next week. Also, Jacksonville has simply been done in by turnovers and mistakes throughout this season. With Marrone taking over the reins and the players feeling some responsibility for Gus Bradley's firing right before Christmas, look for the Jaguars to give one helluva strong effort in this one. The key point about the turnovers and mistakes being a big issue for the Jags is further evidenced by the fact that their defense (321.4 ypg) ranks ahead of the Titans defense (358.4 ypg) but you would never know that by looking at the standings. Tennessee may indeed gut out a win here but I expect this to be a fiercely contested battle decided by 3 points or less. The Jaguars are going to go hard. Also, the Titans are on a 2-13 ATS run in divisional action, 3-17 ATS in games against teams with a losing record, and 28-49 ATS long-term when a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Jaguars are on a 6-3 ATS run in Saturday games and also 6-3 ATS when off of a loss to a division rival. 8* JACKSONVILLE |
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12-23-16 | Ohio v. Troy -4 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Dollar General Bowl - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) vs Ohio Bobcats @ Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL @ 8 ET Friday - Even though Ohio University could be said to have the coaching edge here since Solich has so much experience and this will be Brown's first bowl game as a head coach, Solich's 7 trips to bowls with the Bobcats have resulted in only a 2-5 record. Certainly this venue favors Brown's Trojans as this game is being played down south and was a short trip for Troy. The biggest edge of all is the offense of the Trojans. While both teams have been solid on defense this season I am forecasting Troy to pull away in this one as their offense has been vastly superior to that of the Bobcats this season. Ohio University turned the ball over 7 times in their last 2 games played away from home while Troy State did not turn the ball over a single time in their final two road games of the season. Ohio U averaged just 302.3 yards per game in their last 3 games of the season while the Trojans averaged 438.6 yards per game on the season. Troy even put up 386 yards at Clemson earlier this season in a 6 point loss as a 5 TD underdog! The Trojans only other two losses were a turnover fueled loss to Arkansas State - whom, by the way, crushed Central Florida Saturday in bowl action - and a loss to Georgia Southern by just 4 points in their regular season finale. That loss cost the Trojans a share of their conference title and further motivates them to come up HUGE in this bowl game with a big win. Troy is on an 8-2 ATS run when off of a loss against a conference rival and the Trojans potent offense will prove to be too much for an Ohio U team that was held to 23 points or less in 7 of their last 11 games. 10* Top Play TROY minus the points in the Dollar General Bowl |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State -15 v. Idaho | Top | 50-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Potato Bowl ATS Crusher Thursday - CFB Game #219 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Colorado State Rams (-) vs Idaho Vandals in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl @ Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID @ 7 ET - Snow is on the way but not until Friday morning. The Vandals could have used that Thursday night to possibly help them hang around in this game. While I expect both teams to score plenty with light winds and clear conditions expected in Boise tonight, I look for the Rams to pull away in the second half of this game. The points look to be asking a lot in terms of the cover here but, keep in mind, Idaho not only played a weak schedule but also their 8 wins did not include a victory over a single team with a winning record. The Vandals are on an 0-7 SU (and 1-5 ATS) run against teams with a winning record the past 3 seasons. They played one of the weakest schedules in the nation this season and I expect them to be exposed for that here. Colorado State's schedule this season was only moderately tough but they did go a perfect 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Also, the Rams are 7-0 SU (and 5-2 ATS) the past three seasons combined when they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Colorado State has the much stronger rushing attack in comparing these two teams and also has the better pass defense. That said, once the Rams get a big lead they'll keep pounding away on the ground to wear down the Vandals defense and Idaho will struggle to keep up as they'll be forced to turn to the air against a respectable Rams pass defense. Colorado State head coach Bobo has enjoyed a rejuvenating season with the Rams and they're fired up for this bowl game after losing in last year's Arizona Bowl. With QB nick Stevens having a phenomenal season since replacing the injured Collin Hill, the Rams will put pressure on the Vandals defense all game long as the Colorado State offense is one of the best and most balanced units in the nation. Idaho, against the better teams they faced, gave up an average of 46.5 points per game. That was against Washington, Washington State, Troy, and Appalachian State. Look for Colorado State to pummel the Vandals D in this one and win this one by at least 3 TDs. Lay the big points. 10* COLORADO STATE |
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12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Poinsettia Bowl Wednesday - CFB Game #218 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 9 ET - BYU has been pounded up to being a double digit favorite in this game and that is offering exceptional line value here. The Cougars have lost 3 straight bowl games and are playing in a bowl game for the 12th straight season. As for the Cowboys, the situation is much different and that has them much hungrier than Brigham Young for this game. Wyoming is playing in just their 3rd bowl game in the last 22 years! It is the Cowboys first bowl invite since 2011 and that has the entire program fired up about this opportunity. Wyoming head coach Bohl ended up being named the Mountain West coach of the year. He has done a fantastic job this season and though the bowl history is minimal for the Cowboys, head coach Bohl has gone 14-1 in FCS playoff games and led the way to 3 national titles at the FCS level. The man can coach and, keep in mind, of BYU's 8 victories on the year, only 1 came against a team that ended up having a winning record on the season. That was Toledo and the Rockets already lost their bowl game (to Appalachian State!) so that further adds fuel to the fire here in terms of what strong program has BYU actually beaten this season? The Cowboys have gone 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and, though the Cougars have the better D in this match-up, Wyoming has the edge on offense and that will keep them in this game throughout and it is quite possible that the Cowboys even spring the upset here. That 6-1 ATS mark as a dog included 5 outright upset wins. Dangerous dog here going against a BYU team that is on a 1-5 ATS run when playing with extra rest and the Cougars have not played since November 26th while the Cowboys were in action on December 3rd. Too many points here. 10* WYOMING |
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12-20-16 | Memphis +7 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 31-51 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Boca Raton Bowl - CFB Game #215 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida @ 7 ET - Waiting has paid off here as a line that was as low as a 3.5 when the bowl lines came out has now moved to as high as a 7 in many spots as of early morning on gameday. That makes it "go time" with the underdog here as I'll gladly take advantage of the generous points being offered. Both of these teams have dynamic offenses (especially through the air) so the key comes down to the better pass defense. Memphis has the better secondary and their pass defense has been solid with a 17-15 ratio this season. Additionally, the Tigers have the edges at head coach as Memphis will be going with their defensive coordinator (Holt) as the interim head coach here since Brohm was hired by Purdue. We already saw what happened in this bowl season with another team that was going through a head coaching transition (Houston going with Applewhite) and that resulted in the biggest blowout loss on the opening Saturday of bowl season. The Cougars went off the board as a 5 point favorite there but still got pummeled by San Diego State. I am not saying that this one will play out exactly the same but the point is that there is certainly value with the underdog here catching a full 7 points. This is especially true when you consider that is an additional motivating factor for Memphis. The Tigers come from the bigger conference and they are well aware that they are sizable dogs against "only" a CUSA team. That is additional motivation and certainly the Tigers played the tougher strength of schedule this year too. All signs point to the stronger team from the stronger conference (AAC) in this one. 10* Top Play MEMPHIS |
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12-19-16 | Panthers +7 v. Redskins | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
MNF Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #331 - Rickenbach 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - I believe we're getting exceptional line value here because of Panthers QB Cam Newton's shoulder injury. Keep in mind, the Carolina defense has forced 10 turnovers in their last 4 games. By comparison, the Redskins have forced just 2 turnovers in their last 3 games. Statistically both of these defenses rank in the bottom third of the league but the Panthers held San Diego to just 278 yards last week plus forced 5 turnovers. Of course Carolina has had a frustrating season but, off of a win last week and knowing that this is truly their last chance to shine this season because of no post-season and no other prime-time games left for them, look for the Panthers to absolutely "bring it" on Monday Night Football tonight. The Redskins are over-rated in my opinion. Not only do they have a poor defense but their 7 wins and 1 tie have included Philadelphia (5-9 record) TWICE, the Browns (0-14), the Vikings (7-7), and the Bengals (5-8-1). Against the rest of the league Washington went just 3-5. I know the Panthers have a poor record on the season but this is still a team that went to the Super Bowl last season and will still "go hard" based on "professional pride" and the fact that the Monday Night lights are shining tonight. The fact this line is all the way up to a full +7 is what is truly adding great line value here. Keep in mind the Redskins didn't defeat the floundering Eagles until they got a TD with less than 2 minutes to go last week. Also, Washington lost their two games prior to beating Philly. Carolina has won each of its last 4 meetings with the Skins and the average margin of victory has been double digits! The Panthers are on a 14-6 ATS run as a road dog. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Carolina is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Redskins are a long-term 13-27 ATS. Grab the generous points in this one. 8* CAROLINA |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #305 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys only two straight-up losses this season are to the Giants after last week's loss at New York. However, last week's defeat did mark the 3rd straight ATS loss that Dallas has suffered and it is clear that rookie QB Dak Prescott has regressed a bit over the last couple weeks. Keep in mind that the pressure is more intense now too because Dallas still needs a win to clinch the NFC East and this is true even if the Giants lose to the Lions earlier in the day Sunday. I expect the pressure to start to catch up with "The Boys" here and the Dallas D was helped by facing a struggling Giants offense last week. Prior to that, Dallas allowed 1.347 passing yards their prior 4 games. That is an average of 336.8 passing yards given up per game for the Cowboys secondary. Tampa Bay's passing attack didn't have to do much last week as the Buccaneers defense did most of the "heavy lifting" to defeat the Saints last week. However, prior to that win over the Saints, the TB passing attack produced 1,417 yards in 5 games. That's an average of 283.4 passing yards per game for the Bucs offense. Don't be surprised if the Bucs (in a huge battle for the top spot in the NFC South) give the Cowboys all they can handle in this one! The Buccaneers are on a 5-1 ATS run as a road dog and all 5 wins were outright wins by an average margin of 7 points per game! That said, I'll certainly take the 7 points that are being offered here in a game where Tampa Bay could very well get the upset over the over-rated Cowboys who are starting to come back down to earth. At the very least, look for Dallas to suffer their 4th straight ATS loss. The Cowboys are on a 1-4 SU and ATS run against NFC South opponents. The Bucs are on a long-term 18-6 ATS run in road games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. More of the same Sunday night. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - NFL Game #326 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos are one of the few teams that has given the Patriots some trouble in recent years. Certainly I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos offense is a weakness but their defense is a tremendous strength and they have fared well against Tom Brady and Company in recent years. Yes, this is a revenge game for the Patriots (since the Broncos knocked the Pats out of the post-season in January), but the fact is this is a tough spot for New England. The Patriots are on a short week and just faced a very physical Ravens defense and now have to face another tough, physical defense in the form of the Broncos. Also, the short week issue is magnified by having to travel plus now play in the thin air of Colorado. By the way, that air is extra thin when a strong cold front has just moved through. Conditions certainly aren't expected to be brutal but it is unlikely the temperature gets above freezing today in Denver and the "Mile High" air could wear down the Pats as the game goes on. The Patriots are only 1-5 ATS (and SU!) as a road fave of 3 points or less the past three seasons. Also, the home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Pats are a ridiculous 10-3 ATS this season but most of their wins since Brady returned have come against losing teams. The toughest AFC team the Patriots faced was the Steelers but Pittsburgh was without Ben Roethlisberger in that game. The toughest NFC team the Pats faced was Seattle and that was the lone game that the Patriots have lost since Brady returned. This could be loss #2 since Brady's return as the Broncos are fighting for their playoff lives and they are off of a tough, tight loss at Tennessee last week where their rally fell short. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less and all 4 wins were outright victories. Grab the points! 10* DENVER |
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12-18-16 | Lions +4.5 v. Giants | 6-17 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
NFL Game #307 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Lions are catching the Giants off of a huge Sunday night win over the division rival Cowboys. That sets this one up nicely as, even though Detroit is off of a divisional win also, the Lions victory came against a 3-10 Bears team. The Giants offense has been held under 300 yards now for three straight games! The Lions are coming off of a non-covering win last week but that was their 5th straight SU win and Detroit brought a 7-1 ATS run in that game versus Chicago. Last week's game against the Bears marked the 7th straight time that the Lions have allowed 20 points or less as their defense continues to improve. Looking at the Giants 10 games prior to beating Dallas last week, their defense dominated the Browns, Bears, and Rams but those teams are a combined 7-32 on the seasons! In the other 7 games the Giants allowed at least 20 points in all 7 games and the average points allowed was 23.7 points per game. The Lions and the Giants have more in common than their 9-4 records, Detroit is just as good (if not better) than New York and you can see by the defensive numbers above and the Giants recent futility on offense, that there is no reason for the Giants to be favored by 4.5 points in this game. The value is with the points especially with the G-men off of such a big win. 8* DETROIT |
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12-18-16 | Colts +5 v. Vikings | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
NFL Game #313 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Andrew Luck or Sam Bradford? Who would you rather have at QB? This game is being played indoors and Luck and Company are off of a turnover-plagued home to the division rival Texans last week. The Colts are still alive in the playoff race but this a must-win for them and I look for Luck to respond in a big way after last week's disappointing defeat. As for the Vikings, yes they won last but they only had a small yardage edge and that was against a 2-11 Jacksonville team. The Vikes certainly face a much tougher test this week. The Colts have won and covered three straight road games! Amazingly, Indianapolis has played 6 games away from home this season and they've averaged 29.7 points per game in those 6 games. Certainly I respect the Vikings defense but this is a dangerous Colts offense and Minnesota had lost 6 of their last 7 games before defeating the Jaguars last week. Indy is 10-5 SU and ATS when off of a divisional game and also the Colts have gone 8-4 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the past three seasons combined. More of the same here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-18-16 | Titans +6 v. Chiefs | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
NFL Game #317 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs have been fortunate this season in terms of turnovers and they also have been excellent in special teams play. That has been the key to a 10-3 record despite, based on yardage, ranking 24th on offense and 27th on defense this season. Truly the Chiefs have to be one of the "worst good teams" ever based on the stats they've produced this season. Certainly one must give credit to Kansas City for "finding a way" week in and week out but the point is that this is still an over-rated football team. That is helping to drive this line higher than it should be as KC actually comes into this game on a 2-7 ATS run in home games and yet this line is up near a full TD. It will be very cold in Kansas City Sunday afternoon and I look for the Titans to hold the edge here as the ground game could be key. Tennessee is one of the top teams in the league with their ground attack on offense AND in terms of defending the run on defense. The Titans offense struggled last week but that was against Denver and the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league. Tennessee will find the going a little easier this week! The Titans also have an edge in catching the Chiefs off of a huge divisional win over the Raiders last week that was a battle of teams at the top of the AFC West. Kansas City has only covered 2 of their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and I look for that trend to chalk up another ATS loss this week. 8* TENNESSEE |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss -6.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Opening Day Top Play - CFB Game #211 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-) vs UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns in the New Orleans Bowl in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome @ 9 ET - In looking at all the Saturday bowl match-ups this is the one that is the biggest mismatch in terms of ATS records this season. That disparity helps to give line value here because Southern Miss only went 3-9 ATS this season while Louisiana went 8-4 ATS on the season. The result is extra line value here toward the Golden Eagles and, yes, I am of course well aware of the fact that there has already been significant upward movement on the Eagles in this match-up but there is still great value here. Southern Mississippi's numbers are a bit skewed this season due to some injury issues with star senior QB Nick Mullens. When he is on the field, this is simply a different team and the Golden Eagles rolled Louisiana Tech in their final regular season game to become bowl eligible. Mullens had a huge game against the Bulldogs and I expect nothing less in this bowl game from the senior QB as he is a true "gamer". Mullens is a leader and he'll go hard here to get this bowl win as a senior. Southern Miss lost the two games he didn't play in and they also had a loss to LSU but that is a tough SEC team of course. The point is that they went 6-3 in the other 9 games that Mullens started and they now take on a rather weak Sun Belt Conference team. I know UL-Lafayette won big over rival UL-Monroe in their season finale to become bowl eligible but the Ragin' Cajuns were actually quite fortunate that game was played in a rainstorm. It benefited Louisiana in the form of them being the beneficiary of 5 UL-Monroe turnovers. However, there certainly won't be any rainstorm in this one as it is being played in a dome and I don't seee anything stopping Mullens and a strong Southern Miss offense in this one. I am aware of the Ragin' Cajuns solid bowl history but the Golden Eagles lost their bowl game last season and Mullens and company want to make up for that in a big way this season. Also, Louisiana has gone 0-2 ATS in recent seasons (and 5-15 SU) long-term in their match-ups with Conference USA opponents. The Golden Eagles are the stronger team with the better offense. Mullens has a 60-22 TD-INT ratio in his junior and senior year combined. The Ragin' Cajuns Anthony Jennings has thrown 12 picks against just 11 TDs this season! 10* Top Play SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES Saturday night |
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12-17-16 | Arkansas State +6.5 v. Central Florida | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
Cure Bowl ATS Crusher - CFB Game #207 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Central Florida Knights in the Cure Bowl @ Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida @ 5:30 ET - Certainly the location of this game favors the Knights as this is essentially a home game for Central Florida. However, the Knights faded some as the season went on and I believe they're just "happy to be here" considering they went 0-12 last season! Additionally, UCF could be a little "complacent" here considering that they didn't even have to travel for what is now their 4th bowl in the last 5 years. For the Red Wolves, they certainly are fired up about this opportunity as, even though this is their 6th straight bowl game, head coach Anderson has gone 0-2 SU and ATS in his two appearances and each loss came by a 19 point margin. He'll have his team ready and, unlike the Knights, the Red Wolves were getting stronger as the season went on. In fact, Arkansas State had a horrible start to the season but then rattled off 7 of 8 wins (6-2 ATS) in 8 games against conference opponents. That was good enough for a share of the Sun Belt Conference title and they even dismantled a ranked SBC foe, Troy, 35-3 as a dog of more than a TD. In this bowl match-up the Red Wolves are again under-valued as they are catching nearly a full TD and Arkansas State is 14-5 SU (and 13-6 ATS) when they enter a game off of a win against a conference rival. Central Florida is 0-3 SU and ATS when they enter a match-up with two or more weeks of rest between games. The Knights only averaged 88 rushing yards per game this season while the Red Wolves had a balanced attack with 158 rushing yards and 184 passing yards per game. Central Florida enters this game off of back to back losses to finish the season while the Red Wolves responded to the ending of a 6 game winning streak by blowing out Texas State in the 2nd half of their season finale and that game was on the road. Look for another key in this game to be turnovers. Looking at what each team did over its last 5 games, the Red Wolves turned the ball over just 3 times while the Knights turned it over 11 times. A "running dog" that takes care of the ball is a "dangerous dog" and I'll grab the points in this one. 8* ARKANSAS STATE early Saturday evening |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -7.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
New Mexico Bowl ATS Smash - CFB Game #202 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* New Mexico Lobos (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 2 ET - Texas-San Antonio (preferably referred to as UTSA) is definitely a "feel good story" for head coach Frank Wilson (in his first season) and the Roadrunners (in their first bowl game in their short history as a football program). However, the situation here couldn't be much tougher. Not only are they having to face New Mexico in Albuquerque but the weather conditions are going to be very favorable for the Lobos. Very gusty winds at 25-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible is what is in the forecast for the new Mexico Bowl. This favors the Lobos in a huge way because they are ground-oriented offense and the passing game will simply be challenging in these weather conditions Saturday afternoon. New Mexico is averaging 310 rushing yards per game this season compared to just 133 rushing yards per game for the Roadrunners. The unique triple option offense of the Lobos is likely to keep the Runners defense off-balance throughout this game and I expect New Mexico to run away with it. Off a bowl loss last year, the Lobos will certainly be focused this year and the last time they were in a bowl ('07) after the losing the prior year ('06), they won the game by a final score of 23 to zip! I am not necessarily expecting that type of domination here but I am expecting a win by double digits and the ground game is going to be the key in this game. As a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points UTSA is 1-4 SU and ATS the past three seasons combined. The Lobos have a long-term mark of 23-14 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest between games. 8* NEW MEXICO LOBOS Saturday |
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12-15-16 | Rams +16 v. Seahawks | 3-24 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - NFL Game #301 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:25 ET - The Rams fired head coach Fisher and Fassel (special teams coordinator) takes over as coach for this one. If that didn't get the attention of the Los Angeles players, nothing will. The fact is that I do expect a strong effort from LA tonight and that will go a long way toward the Rams staying inside this inflated number. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that Seattle is off of a blowout loss at Green Bay (and will be looking to respond) as I actually had the Packers as my Game of the Year in that spot. However, the Seahawks did have 6 turnovers in that game including 5 interceptions. Though winds will be light and no precipitation is expected tonight, it will be quite chilly with temperatures likely dipping into the 20s during this one. The point is that Seattle will want to focus on a ground game that has been bolstered with the return of Lou Rawls and I expect the Seahawks to pound with their rushing attack throughout this game after the 5 picks thrown by Russell Wilson in last week's game. Overall, Wilson simply had a poor game with a number of overthrown receivers too. After this rough effort, and facing a Rams team that has played them tough in recent meetings and will be fired up for this game, look for Seattle to be willing to grind out a win rather than go for the gusto of a huge win by more than two TDs. Simply put, the Seahawks "just need a W" here and that's what I expect to see as the focus of their game plan for this one. With the Rams players ready to step up and play with intensity (especially knowing that everyone is watching since its the lone game on a Thursday night) I look for this game to stay much more competitive than many are expecting. I know it's an ugly dog scenario but it is the right play in this spot the way I expect this one to play out. I know this is a revenge game for Seattle but the points are too big and the Rams have won 4 of the last 5 meetings (SU and ATS) between these clubs. The Seahawks are only 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Interestingly, in games 13 through 16 of the season, the Rams have gone 9-1 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional home game and are facing a winning team who is playing with revenge! Seattle, after their non-covering win over Atlanta earlier this season, dropped to 1-6 ATS when they have the Cardinals on deck. Up next for Seattle is Arizona and so I'll gladly test these two trends which combine for a 15-2 (88%) ATS spot favoring the big road dog. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS Thursday |
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12-12-16 | Ravens +6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - NFL Game #133 Monday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:30 ET - The Ravens are playing this game with revenge as they lost at New England by 4 points on January 10, 2015 in the divisional round of the playoffs. That was after a hard-fought win at Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round the week before. The situation is a little better this time around for Baltimore as they come into this game with extra rest and off of an easy home blowout win over the Dolphins. Also, the Pats are certainly going to miss TE Rob Gronkowski who is out with a back injury. The Ravens are on a 5-0 ATS run in Monday Night Football. Long-term the Ravens have an amazing 15-6 ATS mark on Monday Night Football. Baltimore is on a 5-1 ATS run against AFC East foes and their long-term mark against the division is a stellar 29-16 ATS. The Patriots are on an 0-3 ATS run in Monday Night Football games. Couple that with the Ravens mark and you have an 8-0 ATS spot favoring Baltimore in this one. Look for them to keep this game very close and I still feel the Patriots are over-rated. Yes, they've been great since QB Tom Brady returned but 6 of their wins came against teams with a losing record on the season and they went just 1-1 against teams with a winning record. The combined record of those 6 losing teams that Brady defeated is 20-57-1. Still impressed by the Pats? The Patriots only went 1-1 against quality teams (beating Pittsburgh without QB Ben Roethlisberger) and losing to the Seahawks and New England was outgained in BOTH of those games. The Ravens should win this one outright but grabbing the points is the way to go as I look for the 8-0 ATS spot to remain perfect. 10* Top Play BALTIMORE RAVENS plus the points Monday Night |
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12-11-16 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Best Bet - NFL Game #132 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - One could look at this game and say all the pressure is on the Giants in this one but truly Dallas knows how important this game is and has to be feeling pressure too. The Cowboys have had a phenomenal season but they also keep winning with some "smoke and mirrors" too as they have had so many close victories and games where a key bounce or key momentum shift always seems to go their way. They were outgained by the Vikings in last week's non-covering win and the reason I mention the importance of this game is that the Boys have the Buccaneers and Lions on deck. Each of those teams enter this week having won 4 straight games. Then the Eagles will host the Cowboys in the final week of the regular season and you know they'd love nothing more than to knock off Dallas if that was a game the Cowboys still needed to lock up the division. The point is that the real pressure is on Dallas here who needs this win to nail down the division. The Giants already beat the Cowboys earlier this season so another win clinches the tie-breaker edge and New York would stay alive in the NFC East race. As it is, the Giants would be content just to make the post-season and they are currently in good position for that so, again, I contend the real pressure here is on Dallas. The Cowboys are starting to feel it as every team is gunning for them every week and after a ridiculous ATS run where everything was breaking their way, they've failed to cover in back to back weeks. Look for this one to make it 3 in a row. The Giants are fired up off of a loss at Pittsburgh and New York had won 6 straight before that loss. The Giants are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys fade has begun and they are 4-7 ATS their last 11 when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are facing a team with a winning record. Dallas is also on an ugly 1-10-1 ATS run as a favorite when facing an NFC foe with a winning percentage of .666 or greater. That makes this a 10-1 (91%) spot to play on the home dog in this one! 10* Top Play NEW YORK GIANTS plus the points Sunday night. |
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12-11-16 | Seahawks v. Packers +3 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year - NFL Game #128 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* NFL Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Most of the snow (up to 6 inches expected) will have already fallen by the time this game kicks off but it will still be a "Green Bay" kind of day which certainly favors the home team. In fact, dating back to 2008, the Packers have won 15 of their last 16 home games! Green Bay is known for thriving on the frozen tundra at this time of year and this is a must win game for them. They are catching Seattle at the ideal time to spring the upset here as a field goal underdog. The Seahawks are off of a huge revenging win versus Carolina last week. The Hawks wanted that game badly as the Panthers knocked them out of the post-season in January. Now Seattle has to try and come up with another big game in back to back weeks and I just don't see that happening on the road against a much hungrier Green Bay team that is fighting for their playoff lives. The Packers, after a rough stretch, have gotten a little healthier and they've settled back in for solid wins in back to back weeks as they have allowed just 13 points each game. Â Keep in mind, the Seahawks haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard on the road this season. In fact, against NFC competition, the Seahawks have averaged only 8.5 points per game in 4 road games! In addition to the 15-1 stat noted above which favors the Packers. We also have a 7-0 spot facing the Seahawks here. Seattle is 0-7 ATS when they are playing with revenge, are off of a double digit cover, and their opponent has a winning percentage of .400 or greater. The Packers beat Seattle last season so this is a revenge spot. The Seahawks covered by 25+ points against the Panthers like week so that piece is in effect too and, also, the Packers are 6-6 on the year so certainly they are above .400 on the season. Green Bay is also 10-1 ATS when they are at home and off of a non-conference game. Lastly, the Packers are 6-1 ATS as dogs of more than 2 points when facing an opponent whose winning percentage is greater than .666 on the season. Combining the angles above (15-1, 7-0, 10-1, 6-1) we have a fantastic 38-3 (93%) ATS spot favoring the Packers. Yes I know the 15-1 angle is a SU angle but Green Bay is the dog here so any SU win will serve as an ATS win for the Packers. Look for them to get this key win in the playoff race as they catch the Seahawks at the perfect time. 10* GREEN BAY PACKERS plus the points on Sunday afternoon |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns +5.5 | 23-10 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
NFL Game #112 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - The Browns certainly are a bad team but not many teams go 0-16 on a season. That said, if they're going to get 1 win this season, this certainly looks like the most likely spot for it to happen. Cleveland's remaining games feature two road games and a tough home match-up with a feisty San Diego team. With that said, the Browns have had this game circled as "the" opportunity. Cleveland is off of their bye week, they're catching the Bengals off of a big win over the Eagles last week, and the Browns get RG III back under center for this one. The situation simply doesn't get much better than that. Of course we don't need an outright win to get the cash here and, with snow likely during this game, accumulating snow and cold weather conditions should make for exactly the type of "ugly game" where it is nice to have those points with the sizable home dog! The Bengals are on a poor 1-6 ATS run as a road favorite in divisional action. Keep in mind that Cincinnati's home win over the Eagles last week was fueled by 3 Philadelphia interceptions and it was just the 2nd win for the Bengals since September. 8* CLEVELAND BROWNS plus the points early Sunday |
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12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills +3 | 27-20 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
NFL Game #114 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Another one of the many "snow games" scheduled for Sunday as we are likely to see snow in Cleveland, Green Bay, and Buffalo in this week's NFL action. The snow certainly favors the Bills as, not only are they a home dog here, Buffalo is the #1 rushing team in the league. If they establish their ground game in these conditions then the Steelers could struggle to keep up as Pittsburgh relies so heavily on their vaunted passing attack. Even though the Steelers enter this one on a 3-game winning streak, note that Pittsburgh has gone just 5-9 SU (and covered only 4 of 14 games!) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. Also, the Bills come into this one as the hungrier team as their 2-game winning streak was snapped in a loss at Oakland last week. Buffalo blew a big lead in that game! The Bills are on a 7-3 ATS run when they face a winning team in the 2nd half of a season. Also, Buffalo is on a 14-8 ATS run as an underdog. The Steelers are on a 1-4 (SU and ATS) run against AFC East foes. This is a bit of a "trap game" for Pittsburgh as they got a key win over a Giants team that was 8-3 on the season and the Steelers then close the regular season with three straight games against divisional foes! Tough spot here for Pittsburgh and I love fading the line move too as this one has been on the rise all week and we're now able to get a full +3 with the home dog. 8* BUFFALO BILLS plus the points early Sunday |
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12-11-16 | Vikings v. Jaguars +3.5 | 25-16 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
NFL Game #120 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Jacksonville outgained Denver by over 100 yards last week but lost because they badly lost the turnover battle 3 to 0. The Jaguars have been doing themselves in with turnovers but they continue to statistically outpeform their opponents in most games. Jacksonville hasn't been significantly outgained in a game since October! Yes, I know there is more to a game than just the yardage but, the point is, we're now getting significant line value in fading a Vikings team that certainly has issues of its own. Minnesota is now favored by more than 3 on the road in this game even though the Vikings have lost 6 of their last 7 games and have won of the worst offenses in the league. Minnesota also is 1-4 SU and ATS in road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. The Vikes are also 1-11 ATS in Games 13 through 16 of a season when they are a road favorite! The Vikings, also in Games 13 through 16 of a season, are 1-11 ATS on the road when facing a team that is off of a SU loss by double digits and that is playing with revenge (Jacksonville lost most recent meeting with Vikes). After playing on a Thursday, Minnesota (even with last week's cover versus Dallas) is just 2-6 ATS the last 8 times. 8* JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS plus the points early Sunday. |
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12-10-16 | Army v. Navy -6 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Army/Navy Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Saturday - 10* Top Play Navy Midshipmen (-) vs Army Black Knights @ Baltimore, Maryland @ 3 ET - I am well aware of the injury issues that Navy just suffered with, amazingly, both Will Worth and Toneo Gulley getting hurt on the same play in the AAC Championship Game against Temple. However, this is still the biggest game of the season for the Midshipmen. In fact, it means so much that Worth even postponed surgery on the broken foot he suffered so that he could be more available to provide as much help as possible to the sophomore QB who will now be stepping in and taking his place for this game. After getting rolled by the Owls last week, Navy is extra fired up for this season's contest. Also, even though they had not rest between games, note that the Midshipmen have been preparing for Army all season long. Their head coach said as much and the team has indeed devoted some time to preparing for the Black Knights each and every week through the season. Also, Army has had so much time off that they actually could be rusty here. Their last game was 3 weeks ago and Army didn't even get tested in that one because it was against Morgan State. Prior to that, the Black Knights allowed 75 points in their two prior games. Note that Army is an ugly 14-35 ATS when they enter a game off of 2 or more weeks of rest. Navy is 103-68 ATS when playing with 6 days or less of rest between games. In other words, much has been made of the rest factor favoring the Black Knights here but there is more than meets the eye here. The Midshipmen step right into this one "game ready" while Army could be rusty. Navy has played a much tougher schedule than Army this season and that is not being factored into this line as much as it should be. The line could easily be 17 if the injuries were not a factor. Even with those the line could be 10 points and that is what this game opened up at in a lot of spots and the line has now moved all the way down to below a TD which is offering great line value considering Navy's long history of winning in recent meetings in this annual match-up. Don't be fooled by Army's defensive stats. That was helped by playing a weak schedule. They will struggle to stop the Midshipmen triple option attack in this one. Keep in mind that Navy had scored 42 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games before losing ugly to the Owls last weekend. Look for the Midshipmen to bounce right back here and put up big points in their biggest game of the season. Army won't be able to keep up. The Black Knights had been held to 21 points in 6 of their last 7 games before blowing away Morgan State. 10* Top Play NAVY MIDSHIPMEN minus the points Saturday |
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12-08-16 | Raiders +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
RARE Thursday Top - NFL Game #101 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:25 ET - The Chiefs continue to win in amazing ways as they won at Atlanta last week despite the Falcons having 32 first downs compared to just 17 for Kansas City. This is a revenge game for Oakland as they lost at home to the Chiefs 26-10 back in mid-October. The Raiders come into this game off of a 38-24 home win versus the Bills but the road team is still 9-2 ATS in Oakland's games this season and my money is on the road dog in this one tonight. The Chiefs are an ugly 3-15 ATS as a home favorite in divisional action. The Raiders are on a 22-8 ATS run as a road dog in divisional action. In games this season where the Oakland line is anywhere between -3 and +3 they have gone 7-1 ATS. Also, in road games with a posted total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points the past three seasons, the Raiders have gone 7-1 ATS. In road games this season Oakland is 5-0 ATS and in their games against teams with a winning record this season the Raiders are 4-0 ATS. The Chiefs are 1-3 ATS at home this season and 1-3 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points the past three seasons. Even though the Kansas City defense looks strong based on points allowed this season, keep in mind their yardage allowed ranks them just as low as the Raiders. That said, no true D edge to KC in this one and the edge on offense clearly belongs to Oakland as the Raiders are stronger on the ground and through the air in comparison with the Chiefs. Revenge time in a key AFC West showdown. 10* Top Play OAKLAND RAIDERS plus the points Thursday night |
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12-04-16 | Panthers +7.5 v. Seahawks | 7-40 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #375 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - This is a revenge spot for Seattle since the Seahawks didn't get a shot at the Super Bowl last season because they lost to the Panthers at Carolina in January. However, revenge can be over-valued and I feel strongly that is precisely the case here. The Seahawks schedule has been brutal over the past 5 weeks. They were home against Buffalo to start November but then went all the way to the east coast to face New England, then flew across the country to host the Eagles, then flew back to the east coast again to face Tampa Bay and then came back across the country again to host Carolina this week. This is catching up with the Seahawks and I know that last week's loss to the Buccaneers certainly had a lot to with this being a lookahead spot. But it also had to do with all the travel and big games likely catching up with Seattle and it was the 3rd time in the last 6 games that their total offense has been held to 278 yards or less! Now Seattle has to deal with a Carolina defense that, prior to last week's poor effort at Oakland, had allowed 20 points or less in 4 straight games! The Panthers are fired up after rallying back to take the lead on the Raiders only to lose late and though it is the Seahawks with revenge in this match-up, keep in mind it is Carolina who is fighting hard right now to stay alive in the playoff race in the NFC. The Panthers are on a 17-8 ATS run as a road dog and I love having them at more than 7 in this match-up. In games 9 through 12 of a season, the Panthers have gone 8-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 35 points or more. The Seahawks may get their revenge but I expect this game to be decided by a single possession as it should be an absolutely dogfight given the situation for both clubs. 8* CAROLINA |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Month - NFL Game #370 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - Make no mistake about it, that was a huge win for the Bucs last week as they beat Seattle. However, it's important to consider that the Seahawks were clearly flat for that game. Not only were the Hawks off of a big win over the Eagles (and upset of the Patriots the prior week), they also had a huge game on deck. Seattle was clearly looking ahead to their game this week (an opportunity for playoff revenge) against Carolina. With that said, one can't totally take everything away from the Buccaneers win over the Seahawks last week but, the point is, one should definitely keep it in perspective. Now Tampa Bay is clearly the one that is in a flat spot here as they are off of a huge upset win at home and now had to travel coast to coast to take on a tough Chargers team that is clearly better than their 5-6 record on the season. San Diego has had some tough, tight losses so many are reluctant to back them and that is helping to give late season line value to the Bolts in a spot like this as the line has held at 3.5 in most spots. While both teams have been "up and down" on defense this season, the offensive edge in this match-up clearly belongs to Philip Rivers and company and the Chargers have averaged 32 points per game at home this season while the Bucs are averaging only 21.6 points per game on the road this year. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season and Tampa Bay's recent "surge" on defense has been helped by catching Seattle in a flat spot (and Seahawks offense has struggled at times this season) and facing the the Chiefs and Bears (both have struggled on offense this season). Prior to that, the Bucs allowed 73 points in their two prior games (against Oakland and Atlanta) and those games were in Tampa Bay. In other words, don't be surprised if the Chargers put up a bunch of points on the over-rated Bucs Sunday! 10* Top Play SAN DIEGO CHARGERS |
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12-04-16 | Broncos -3 v. Jaguars | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Early System Smash - NFL Game #351 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Denver Broncos (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Broncos are fired up after losing in overtime to the Chiefs last week despite having a yardage edge of 464-273 in that game. Even though QB Trevor Siemian is likely to miss this game, Paxton Lynch has already logged some NFL time and he'll do just fine here. The Jaguars have lost 6 straight games and 5 of the 6 defeats have come by at least 5 points. 5 of Denver's 7 wins have come by at least 8 points so if you're expecting the Broncos to win this you should also be expecting them to cover the short number. That said, I definitely like Denver off of a loss and facing a Jacksonville team that is only 2-9 on the season plus has suffered 6 straight losses. The Broncos have won all 3 of their non-divisional road games this season and have gone 3-0 ATS in those games. Denver is also on an 11-5 ATS run when off of a SU loss. The Jaguars are on a long-term ugly 10-24 ATS run as a home dog. Jacksonville is 0-4 SU and ATS in their home games this season. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage under the .250 mark. Combining the above perfect marks in favor of Denver and those against the Jags and you have a 13-0 ATS mark in favor of the Broncos. I'll take it! 8* DENVER |
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