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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #244 Thursday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 5:15 ET in Camping World Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - The Hokies will be without WR Cam Phillips and this is a significant absence as he was their leading receiver (by far) for both catches and yardage! That is going to make it even tougher for Virginia Tech to keep up with the high-flying Cowboys. Yes, I know that Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster has a great long-term reputation and that Virginia Tech's defense did bounce back this year after some tough seasons in recent years. However, the Hokies D was rarely challenged by strong passing attacks (schedule was friendly in that regard) but now Virginia Tech faces an OSU attack that will give them a ton of trouble. Note that in the Hokies games against West Virginia, East Carolina, and Pittsburgh, they allowed an average of 308 passing yards per game! As for Oklahoma State's offense they average nearly 600 yards per game including nearly 400 yards per game through the air! The Cowboys have faced the tougher schedule this season and Virginia Tech is a long-term 1-4 ATS as a neutral field underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. OSU is 3-0 ATS long-term against ACC opponents and also went 3-0 SU and ATS in non-conference games this season. Long-term they've won 40 of 53 games SU (and gone 31-22 ATS) when they are a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. All but 1 of the Cowboys wins came by at least 7 points this season and all 3 of the Hokies losses came by 6 points or more! With that said, we've got a great number to work with here! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-27-17 | Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #275 Wednesday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Arizona Wildcats in Foster Farms Bowl @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California @ 8:30 ET - The Boilermakers faced a much tougher schedule than Arizona did this season. Also, Purdue is the much better team on defense. The Wildcats allow 34.1 points per game while the Boilermakers allow only 19.3 points per game. Purdue has gone 4-2 ATS their last 6 as a dog and they are 3-0 ATS after a bye week as well as 3-0 ATS in non-conference action! In games with a line range from -3 to +3, the Wildcats have gone an ugly 2-6 SU and ATS! Of course when you have a poor defense you often struggle to win close games and that is likely to be the case again with Arizona here. While the Wildcats stumbled late in the season by losing each of their last 2 games and 3 of their last 4, the Boilermakers have the momentum edge as they won each of their last 2 games as well as 3 of their last 4. Arizona's strength on offense is their ground game but the Boilermakers are very strong against the run and allowed only 84 rushing yards per game their last 5 games of the regular season! 10* PURDUEÂ |
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12-25-17 | Raiders +10 v. Eagles | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher Top Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #131 Monday 10* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:30 ET - The Raiders got eliminated from playoff contention with Sunday's results but they already knew their chances were slim as tough losses have helped lead the way to a tough 6-8 record entering this match-up. The point is that the elimination is not a total shock and I fully expect Oakland to still want to perform well in a primetime Christmas night performance when they know all of the NFL world will be watching. The fact is that now all the pressure here is on the Eagles as they are still trying to secure the #1 see in the NFC. Also, with Nick Foles now in for Carson Wentz, the Eagles certainly are not quite as explosive on offense. Philly is 2-1 their last 3 games and both wins came by 8 points or less. The Raiders are 3-3 their last 6 games and one loss was by just a field goal and another by 11 points. In other words, the big points here are certainly offering big value. The Eagles have allowed 29.3 points per game the past 3 weeks. By comparison, the Raiders have allowed only 19.3 points per game their last 4 games! Philadelphia is a long-term 12-22 ATS when playing in a home game with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS when on the road in non-conference action and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .401 or greater! The Raiders have covered 4 of the last 5 against Philly and though I expect the Eagles to get the win here I expect it to be by just a single possession as Raiders go to 5-1 ATS L6 versus Philadelphia. 10* OAKLAND |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Christmas Eve Special - Rickenbach CFB Game #228 Sunday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Houston Cougars in Hawaii Bowl @ Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii @ 8:30 ET - The Bulldogs played at Hawaii in mid-November when they got a 31-21 win over the Warriors. Fresno State having already made the trip here for that game, plus having played in the Hawaii Bowl multiple times in the past, gives them an edge here. The Cougars are without their offensive coordinator for this game. That negates one of the edges they were anticipated to have here as Houston's offense was their advantage in this match-up. The fact is that the Bulldogs are the much stronger defense, they are motivated by recent bowl losses, and they have a significant coaching edge with Tedford over Applewhite. The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS (including 5-0 ATS this season) in games against teams with a winning record. Also, Fresno State is 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they've been involved in games with a line between +3 and -3. The Cougars are 3-5 SU and ATS against Mountain West Conference opponents long-term while the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS against teams from the American Athletic Conference. Coach Tedford has done great things with the Bulldogs in his first season here after coming over from Cal and they want to carry momentum right into next season with a big bowl win. Houston is at the other end of the spectrum and just not the same team they were under coach Tom Herman. The public perception is still "off" on these two teams and I'll step in and take advantage. 10* FRESNO STATE |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +4 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #127 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Cowboys have won 3 straight games and they're getting Ezekiel Elliott back this week and they are at home. Dallas has become an "automatic play" for many public bettors as a result this week. After all, the public watched the Seahawks get destroyed by the Rams last week in Seattle. In fact, the Seahawks have now lost two straight games so everyone is very "anti-Seattle" at this point in time. The Seahawks are a long-term 50-32 ATS when off of back to back SU losses. Seattle is also a long-term 70-39 ATS in December games. The Cowboys are known for fading late in the season. Yes, they are off of 3 straight wins but those teams have a combined record of 14-28 on the season! That is noteworthy here because Dallas is facing a much tougher challenge this week and, when the Cowboys, in the 2nd half of a season, face a team with a winning record on the year they have gone an ugly 2-9 ATS! Dallas is a long-term 11-20 ATS and the value is with the very hungry underdog Seahawks here. After getting thoroughly embarrassed (at home no less!) last week, they are relishing this opportunity to take down "America's Team" at "Jerry's World". Grab the generous points here but you shouldn't need any! 10* SEATTLE |
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12-24-17 | Lions -3 v. Bengals | 17-26 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #105 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - The Lions are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and they won't let the hapless Bengals stand in their way. Cincinnati has lost 3 straight and has been blasted by an average margin of 18.7 points per game in those 3 defeats. The Bengals have scored just 7 points in each of their last two games and they've been held to 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. By comparison, Detroit has scored at least 20 points in 7 straight games and has averaged 26 points per game during this hot streak that has seen them win 5 of 7. With this number down to a 3, there is a lot of value in taking the Lions with such a small spread to cover. In the 2nd half of a season, when facing a team with a losing record, Detroit is a long term 12-1 SU while the Bengals, when facing a team with a winning record, have gone 1-10 SU. That's a combined 22-2 SU factor favoring the Lions to win in this one! 8* DETROIT |
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12-24-17 | Falcons +6 v. Saints | 13-23 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #115 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Falcons are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and they have had the Saints number. Yes, this is a revenge game for New Orleans as they lost at Atlanta two weeks ago. However, that was their 3rd straight loss in this series as they were swept last season. Sometimes a team just has another teams number and lets not forget that the Falcons played in (and should have won) the Super Bowl last season. This Atlanta team won't quit here as this is a team on a mission. The Falcons are off of a non-covering win at Tampa Bay but they were in a poor scheduling spot as they were off of playing the Saints and Vikings and with another big game versus Saints and then a regular season finale versus the Panthers on deck. Prior to that ATS loss, Atlanta had covered 4 of their last 5 and they have SU wins in 5 of their last 6. The Falcons are a 6 point dog here and that is significant as they have only 1 loss by more than 6 points this season! New Orleans is on a 1-4 ATS run as the betting markets have over-valued them after their hot run. That appears to be the case again here and one glance at the injury report tells you that the Saints are the more banged up team too. New Orleans is 2-7 ATS when they are at home off of a double digit SU win. The Falcons are 9-1 ATS when off of a Monday game! 8* ATLANTA |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -10 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Game #120 Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - A second straight cold weather game for the Dolphins and I expect them to struggle here just like they did in Buffalo. The Chiefs are playing their home finale and looking toward locking up the AFC West. There is no way that Kansas City comes out flat here even though they are are off back to back big divisional wins. The fact is that too much is at stake here for the Chiefs to be flat and their defensive dominance (known for that at Arrowhead Stadium) is likely to key the win. KC has forced 7 turnovers the past two weeks and Miami has turned the ball over 3 times or more in 4 of the past 5 weeks. As you can see from those numbers, the Dolphins are in trouble here and the average margin of their 8 losses this season is 17 points! So, yes the points look big here but don't worry about the Chiefs covering double digits. This should be complete dominance. The average yardage allowed by Kansas City in their last 4 home games is just 302 yards per game. The Dolphins defense, on the road, has allowed 431 yards per game in their last 3 games. Miami is 2-5 ATS on the road this season. The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in games played on grass this season. Lay the big points! 8* KANSAS CITY |
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12-23-17 | Vikings v. Packers +9 | Top | 16-0 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Year NFL Game #104 Saturday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - The Packers certainly have had their share of ups and downs without Aaron Rodgers at the controls but one thing is for certain, there has been no quit in this Green Bay team. The Packers continue to battle hard including road losses by just a single possession at Carolina and Pittsburgh! Yes, Minnesota has been ultra hot this season but here the Vikings are laying more than a TD on the road in very cold conditions where points could be at a premium. You know the Packers would love nothing more than to knock off a hated division rival in a big upset and there is no doubt Green Bay is going to be up emotionally for this game. GB is attempting to avenge the 13 point loss at Minnesota earlier this season. The Packers are on a 6-3 ATS run when playing with revenge and also an 8-3 ATS run in December games. In road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points, the Vikings are on a 1-6 ATS run. In true road games this season (played Browns at neutral site), Minnesota is 4-2 SU and the average margin of their 4 wins was 5.75 points with not a single win by more than 8 points! That creates fantastic value here and the hungry Packers are in this one all the way! 10* GREEN BAY |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State v. Toledo -6.5 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #226 Saturday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 7 ET in Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL - The Rockets seek revenge from last year's 31-28 loss to the Mountaineers in bowl action. Of course you can't just blindly play revenge. However, in this case it plays very well because Toledo is the much stronger team in my opinion. Appalachian State played one of the weakest schedules in the nation and lets not forget they lost on the road at Massachusetts and Louisiana Monroe this season! Those two teams each ended the season with 4-8 records. The Rockets hold big edges over Appalachian State in terms of offense and on special teams. Also, the Mountaineers pass defense got picked apart by Coastal Carolina and Louisiana Monroe and they face a much tougher challenge here. The Rockets are averaging 220 yards per game on the ground this season while also throwing for nearly 300 yards per game! Appalachian State is 0-6 SU (and only 2-4 ATS) the last 6 times they've been an underdog and I like the fact this line has now dipped below a 7 as of gameday morning. The Rockets are a long-term 31-16 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. 10* TOLEDO |
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12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #224 Saturday 8* San Diego State Aztecs (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 3:30 ET in Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX - Both teams are run-dominated but what I like about San Diego State here is that head coach Rocky Long is known for great success when facing option-based offenses. Long has gone 11-1 SU (and 8-4 ATS) when facing an opponent that runs the option. Army was fortunate to defeat Navy two weeks ago but that win still resonates with the betting markets and is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. The Aztecs are the superior team and finished up the season with a 4-0 SU and ATS run with no win by less than a margin of 19 points! San Diego State has won in blowouts in their bowl games each of the past two seasons and I expect another here. Army is 3-21 SU (and 8-16 ATS) long-term when facing a Mountain West opponent. The Aztecs are 19-3 SU (and 16-5 ATS) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. That means we have combined angles (from all of the above) of 44-17 (72%) ATS supporting backing the fave in this one! 8* SAN DIEGO STATE |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #219 Friday 8* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys in Famous Idaho Potato Bowl @ Albertson's Stadium in Boise, ID @ 4 PM ET - The big news here is that Cowboys QB Josh Allen will play. The earliest lines on this game had it at a pick'em but now Wyoming is -3.5 as of gameday morning. I love the value with the underdog here. Keep in mind, Allen's shoulder is not 100%. His performance this season also was not that impressive. I know he has the size and some skill sets that have the NFL scouts enamored but others tell it like it is that his field vision and accuracy both are lacking...the latter of which won't be helped by a sore shoulder! Of course the Cowboys aren't exactly loaded with talent around him and that has also hurt Allen. The bottom line is that Central Michigan has the better offense here as they averaged 392.1 yards per game compared to just 286.9 for Wyoming. While some may expect the Cowboys to bounce back after their upset loss at San Jose State as a huge favorite in their regular season finale, Wyoming is actually 0-7 ATS as a fave of more than 3 points when off of a straight up loss as a favorite. Also, the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS when facing an opponent off of a straight up win as an underdog. The Chips knocked off Northern Illinois as a small dog in their regular season finale. That brings the Chippewas to 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games. Wyoming is on an 0-2 ATS run. Add up all the ATS factors and streaks here and you have a 19-1 (95%) ATS spot favoring the underdog! Grab the points! 8* CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #330 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys are off of a road win at New York but the Giants have clearly thrown in the towel on the season. The Raiders, despite a loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City last week, certainly don't fall into the same category as the Giants. The betting markets have moved this line from around a pick'em to now a -3 on Dallas and, keep in mind, that was their line last week at New York. So are you telling me the 6-7 Raiders are in the same category as the 2-11 Giants? No way...and this is absolutely the definition of line value. Sure the Cowboys are still fighting to keep playoff hopes alive but so too are the Raiders and there is no way Oakland is going to bring anything less than 100% in this situation. This is Oakland's home finale and the Raiders are off of a road loss and haven't lost back to back games since the first half of October. As for the Cowboys, they are off of back to back wins but only one time this entire season have they managed to win 3 straight. Also, in road games this season the Cowboys have defeated the Giants, Redskins, and 49ers but those teams all have 5 wins or less on the season. In fact the combined record of those teams is 10-29. The Raiders have 6 wins just like the Cardinals team that Dallas also defeated on the road earlier this season but the Cowboys were outgained by Arizona in that match-up. Couple that with the fact that the 'Boys other two road games this season saw them lose at Atlanta and Denver by a combined score of 69-24 and I like my chances here with a Raiders team whose backs are against the wall. Oakland is 8-1 ATS when off of a SU loss in divisional action (lost at KC last week). The Raiders are also 4-1 ATS after facing the Chiefs. Dallas is on a 2-6-1 ATS run in games played in the final 4 weeks of a season. Fade the masses! 8* OAKLAND |
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12-17-17 | Patriots v. Steelers +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #326 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers have won 8 straight games. Clearly Pittsburgh was looking ahead to this game as they struggled to get past the Ravens last week. Even though that was a divisional game for the Steelers they have been talking about this match with the Patriots for many weeks now. The Pats beat them in the regular season last year when the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger and then the Patriots eliminated them from the post-season with a big January win in Foxboro. This time however the Steelers host and this time Pittsburgh has a simply massive edge on defense. New England actually ranks as one of the worst defenses in the league this season while the Steelers are up near the top of the league as usual. This will prove to be a big difference-maker in this match-up. The Steelers offense has been "clicking" to say the least and Pittsburgh put up 39 points against the Ravens last week. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS when off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Pittsburgh is 12-6 SU and 10-5 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. The Patriots are 1-3 ATS as a road fave of 3 points or less and they lost all 3 of those games outright! I expect another outright loss here as the Steelers get their revenge but I'll gladly grab the available points. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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12-17-17 | Rams +1.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #323 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - The Seahawks won the first meeting (in Los Angeles) despite being outgained by 134 yards. The key for Seattle was being +3 in turnovers. Not only was that a bit of a "phony final" the fact is that this is a very tough spot for the Seahawks as they had to travel all the way down to Florida for last week's game - a loss at Jacksonville. Seattle still holds the attention of the public due to their long-term success (particularly at home). However, the Seahawks only real home win of note this season was against the Eagles and Seattle was outgained by over 100 yards in that victory too. Again the Hawks benefited from turnovers in that one. This is still a Seattle defense that is hurting due to the loss of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman to injury. The Rams come into this game hungry off of a home loss to those same Eagles. Look for Los Angeles to get their revenge here as they are 5-1 SU in road games this season. The Seahawks have struggled in games projected to be tight ones as they are 1-4 SU and ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3 this season. The Rams are a stellar 10-1 ATS when they are on the road in divisional action after scoring 35 or more points in their prior game! After the high-scoring loss to the Eagles last week, LA takes out their frustration on an over-rated Seattle team that is not as strong as they've been in the past. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-17-17 | Dolphins v. Bills -3 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Side - Rickenbach NFL Game #314 Sunday 8* Buffalo Bills (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - The Dolphins are off of a huge upset win over the Patriots on Monday night. As impressive as that was, one should not lose sight of the fact that Miami had turned the ball over 11 times in their 3 prior games. Also, the Dolphins have won just once in their last six games away from home and those 5 losses came by an average margin of 23.2 points per defeat! The Bills are 5-2 at home this season and battling hard to stay alive in the playoff race. This is their home finale and with a tough game at New England on deck before traveling to Miami for their regular season finale, Buffalo knows that a sweep of the Dolphins is likely essential to their playoff hopes. The Fins won both games from the Bills last season and Buffalo is ready for revenge this season. It begins with this match-up. Miami is a long-term 13-28 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football. The Bills are a long-term 43-24 ATS in home games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. The Dolphins are also 1-6 ATS when they are on the road off of back to back SU wins and now facing an opponent with a winning record. The Bills are favored by 3.5 in some spots and that is noteworthy here as Buffalo is 5-0 ATS when favored by more than 3 points against a divisional foe that is off of an upset win as an underdog. The back to back wins for Miami including the big upset win over the Pats and the fact it is a short week for the Dolphins combine to make this a great spot for the Bills. 8* BUFFALO |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #305 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:25 ET - The Chargers and Chiefs both have solid offenses (particularly in the passing game). However, they key to the value here is that Los Angeles is much better in terms of pass defense in comparison with Kansas City. Of course that is why you're seeing this line right around a pick'em despite the fact that the Chiefs have won 7 straight in this series and also have the home field edge here! Don't be fooled, the Chargers are priced this way for a reason and I am jumping all over them in this spot. KC finally got back into the win column last week but they had previously lost 4 straight games. As for red hot LA, they come into his game having won 4 straight games! The Chargers are a long-term 15-7 SU (and ATS) as a road fave of 3 points or less. Los Angeles is also on an 8-4 ATS run when playing with revenge. LA has averaged 32.8 points per game their last 4 games. The Chiefs have averaged only 18.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Chargers pass defense has allowed only 181.5 passing yards per game their last 4 games while the Chiefs pass defense has given up 248.5 passing yards per game on the season! Kansas City was on a 1-6 SU and ATS run prior to last week's win versus Oakland and I don't see them getting two straight wins over very hungry division rivals! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions -4.5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #303 Saturday 8* Detroit Lions (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 4:30 ET - Sure the Bears numbers looked great last week at Cincinnati but they caught the Bengals off of a heart-breaking loss to the division rival Steelers. Cincy was about as flat as a team could be last week and give Chicago credit for taking advantage. However, the Bears now take on a Lions team that is in a fight to stay alive in the playoff race and I don't expect Chicago to be able to keep up here. Detroit has averaged 27 points in their last 6 games. By comparison, the Bears had averaged 14.3 points per game in their 6 games prior to the big win against a deflated Cincinnati team. That big margin of victory last week for Chicago has led to exceptional line value here as the Lions are the vastly superior team. Keep in mind, the Bears had averaged just 244.7 TOTAL yards per game their 6 prior games. The Lions are averaging 268.2 PASSING yards per game on the season. Chicago may hang around for a little bit in this game but the Lions will pull away as the game goes on and that makes the small number here a very manageable one. Detroit is 12-4 SU (and 11-5 ATS) when facing a team with a losing record. The Bears are playing with revenge here but have gone 0-6 SU (and 1-5 ATS) in that situation! 8* DETROIT |
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12-16-17 | Marshall v. Colorado State -3.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado State Rams (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 4:30 ET @ Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, NM in New Mexico Bowl - Marshall certainly has been the popular choice here as the markets have pushed the Rams line all the way down to just 3.5 as of early game day morning. I love the value here we're getting with Colorado State. Trend players are all over the Thundering Herd because they have good recent history in the bowls and because the Rams don't! Also, Colorado State failed to cover their final 6 games of the regular season. However, that big Rams win over Fresno State by 28 points in the season finale did wonders for the confidence of this team heading into this bowl match-up. Also, even though their offensive coordinator has left to join Tennessee, the strength of the Rams is the offense and they'll be just fine here. The issue for CSU this season has been the defense but I expect an absolutely huge effort from the D in this one because Colorado State's defensive coordinator (Marty English) will be coaching the final game of his career! Look for every Rams defender to have a great "motor" in this game as a result as they go hard all game long to send English out the right way! Keep in mind, Marshall lost 4 of their last 5 games and they have a lot more questions on their injury report than do the Rams heading into this one. Colorado State averages a full TD more per game than the Thundering Herd do. Marshall's edge here, in normal circumstances, would be the defense but I expect CSU to step up big given this situation. Also, the fact the Rams have lost 3 straight bowls has them highly motivated here and they're use to playing in Albuquerque while this is certainly an unusual location for Marshall. The Thundering Herd are 2-4 ATS when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU losses. The Rams are a long-term 8-4 ATS against CUSA foes and also did face the tougher schedule this season. Fade the masses and lay the points here! 10* COLORADO STATE |
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12-16-17 | Georgia State +7 v. Western Kentucky | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #203 Saturday 8* Georgia State Panthers (+) vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ 2:30 ET @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL in the Cure Bowl - The Hilltoppers are getting all the attention here with this line being driven up to a 7 as of game day morning. In my opinion, Western Kentucky is being vastly over-valued. The Hilltoppers are horrible running the ball (2.1 ypc) and also allowed 3.5 sacks per game. They just don't hold enough of an edge to justify being a full TD favorite here. There was a concern about Panthers WR Penny Hart but Georgia State's leading receiver (foot injury) has been upgraded to probable for this game. It is Western Kentucky that has been bit by the injury bug this season and the Hilltoppers did lose 4 of their last 5 games The Panthers won 3 of their last 5 games and they lost their season finale because of turnovers as Georgia State did outgain Idaho by 60 yards in that 24-10 loss. The Hilltoppers have had 3 weeks off and are likely to be the rustier team compared to a Panthers team that has just had 2 weeks off. Western Kentucky is on a 3-8 ATS run in non-conference games including 0-3 ATS this season. Also, as a favorite this season, the Hilltoppers have gone an ugly 1-6 ATS. The Panthers enter this game off of back to back SU losses and that is a situation that has seen them respond by going 7-2 ATS! Look for another cover here! 8* GEORGIA STATE |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +12 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #134 Monday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:30 ET - The Patriots need one more win to clinch the AFC East and, indeed, the Pats are likely to get that here. However, they are vastly over-priced in my opinion. Of course this is what happens when you have the long-term reputation that New England does plus when you come into a game on an 8-game winning streak! Also, the Patriots have covered 6 straight games after a ridiculous ATS run last season (including the playoffs and their miracle Super Bowl comeback win). The point is that the Pats are highly regarded by the betting markets as a result and, in this case, they have become over-priced. Keep in mind, New England has a huge game on deck with the Steelers at Pittsburgh. The Patriots, though they would say otherwise, can't help but be peeking ahead at that showdown with the other top team in the AFC. Also, this is part of a stretch of 5 road games in 6 weeks and I feel it finally catches up with the Pats here. The Dolphins are 3-2 in home games this season and one defeat came by 10 points (despite a yardage edge for Miami of over 100 yards) and the other defeat came by just 3 points. The Patriots find a way to win this one but the Dolphins stay well within the inflated number! Miami is 9-2 ATS when they are at home against an AFC opponent on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, the Dolphins are 10-1 ATS when they are at home in a divisional game and they have a losing record and are playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning record. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS when on the road after a game in which they allowed less than 10 points. New England is also 0-7 ATS as road favorite of more than 8 points against an AFC opponent that has a winning percentage of .201 or greater on the season. Also, the Pats covered by double digits versus Buffalo last week and they are 2-11 ATS when playing in divisional action and off of a divisional game where they covered the spread by 10 or more points. Add it all up and you have angles that combine for 41-6 (87%) ATS supporting the Dolphins. 10* MIAMI |
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers -4.5 | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:30 ET - The Ravens have won 3 straight games and that certainly looks very impressive on the resume but they've benefited from 11 turnovers in those 3 games. Also, the combined record of 16-20 of those 3 opponents is certainly unimpressive. Baltimore faced Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers and Houston without Deshaun Watson and then beat the Lions by 24 despite only having a total yardage edge of just TWO yards in the game. The result is line value here as the Steelers should win this game by at least a TD. They blew out the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this season and it was no fluke as they won by 17 in a game they were up 19-0 at the half and a game in which Pittsburgh dominated the ground game. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, Baltimore is 5-8 ATS and 1-12 SU so, as you can see, the likelihood of an upset here is remote. That is significant here because the Steelers are a long-term 51-30 ATS as a home fave of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, the Ravens are just 3-3 SU against teams with a winning record this season while the Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS versus teams above .500 on the season. Baltimore has lost each of its past two games against the Steelers and that sets up an interesting system here. Entering this season Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS when facing a divisional opponent off of a SU win that is now facing the Steelers with double revenge. Also, the Steelers entered the season 8-1 ATS when facing a divisional opponent that is off of a non-divisional game where they scored more than 35 points. As for the Ravens, they are an ugly 2-12 ATS when they enter a game with a winning record and are off of a non-divisional game and now facing a divisional opponent with a winning record. They already failed to get the cover in this scenario earlier this season versus the Steelers and I look for them to again fall short in the same scenario in the rematch. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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12-10-17 | Eagles +1 v. Rams | Top | 43-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles are done. They're left for dead. After that loss to the Seahawks on primetime last week it proves they are a fraud and really aren't a very good football team. I jest of course as really it is funny to listen to the so-called experts talk about the Eagles after last week's loss. Turnovers happen, it is part of the game and sometimes it can be the turning point in a game too. Last week the Eagles went into Seattle and piled up over 400 yards of offense and yet still ended up with only 10 points on the scoreboard. It was one of the craziest results you'll ever see and you better believe they're going to be ready to bounce back big this week. They're catching the Rams at the right time too as Los Angeles is off of back to back wins over a strong Saints team and then a divisional foe last week. That sets this one up very well and another key here is the way these teams match up. The Eagles have one of the best rushing offenses in the league while the Rams are among the worst teams in the league for rush defense. On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia is the best defense in the league against the run. This will force Jared Goff to have to beat the Eagles defense through the air while Carson Wentz gets the luxury of beating the Rams defense both ways, through the air and overland. Los Angeles is only 2-8 ATS when at home playing with revenge (lost at Philly in 2014) and off of a divisional road game. Also, LA entered this season with an 0-11 ATS mark when playing with revenge against a non-divisional foe that has a winning record! The Eagles are 14-3 SU the last 17 games that Lane Johnson has played in. He is a key member of the offensive line and the Eagles went 5-1 in his starts last season and are 9-2 in the 11 starts he has made this season. Johnson and the rest of a strong offensive line power a huge ground game for the road victory here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Vikings have covered 7 straight games and are on an 8-game winning streak. However, last week's tight win at Atlanta was the first time this season that Minnesota has a road win over a team that currently has a winning record. Keep in mind, the Vikes got blasted at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Not only is this a 3rd straight road game for Minnesota, the Vikings are facing a Panthers team that is angry off of their double digit loss at New Orleans last week. The line has continued to move this week and the Panthers are now a field goal underdog in this match-up. I love the value here as Carolina is also 8-0 ATS when they are an underdog and facing an opponent who is off of an upset win as an underdog! The Vikes were a small dog against the Falcons last week and won outright so that system is in play here! Also, Minnesota is 1-5 ATS when on the road after an upset win as an underdog. 8* CAROLINA |
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12-10-17 | Packers v. Browns +3.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - The Browns have very few chances left to earn a victory this season and I look for them to make the most of this one. Green Bay is off of a win versus Tampa Bay last week but they were fortunate as they were outgained by 119 yards in that game. QB Aaron Rodgers could be back next week but, in his absence, the Packers have certainly struggled badly. Prior to the win over the Buccaneers (again, a fortunate win!), Green Bay had lost 5 of their 6 prior games. Of course it is still hard to tout an 0-12 team but the Browns have a small sense of optimism this week as there were finally some front office changes made that could indicate a new direction for the team after another strategy failed in hapless Cleveland. The Browns did cover versus the Chargers last week. Though they failed to cover their most recent home game, 3 of their first 4 home games were losses by just 3 points apiece. The point is that Cleveland does play better at home and they've been right on the cusp of getting over the hump. I am projecting this is the week they do it and will grab the points but I don't expect to need them. Green Bay is 1-5 SU and ATS as a road fave of 3 points or less. 8* CLEVELAND |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy -2.5 | 14-13 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 30 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB 8* Navy Midshipmen (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 3 ET - Army will be the popular choice here as they have the better record and also have the chance to win their first Commander-in-Chief Trophy in 21 years! However, in typical contrarian fashion (but not without proper reasoning) I am going against the masses in this one. The fact is that Navy played a much tougher schedule this season. Also, last year the Midshipmen lost to the Black Knights to snap a 14-game winning streak for Navy in this series. They'll be ready for payback here and now all 3 of their quarterbacks are healthy. Abey, Lewis, and Perry are all available here and the Midshipmen haven't lost back to back games in this series in over 20 years. Rest is a good thing but too much rest can lead to rust. The Midshipmen have been off for 2 weeks which is good as they enjoyed a bye week last week. However, the Black Knights have been off for 3 weeks as they haven't played since a loss at North Texas 3 weeks ago. While Army is off of a loss, Navy is off of back to back losses and that is noteworthy here as they are 10-2 ATS when off of back to back SU losses and facing an opponents off of a SU loss. Army is 2-8 ATS the last 10 times they've been a dog of less than 5 points. Also, the Black Knights are a horrible 0-8 ATS when playing with rest and facing a team playing with revenge. Certainly the record of the Midshipmen is unimpressive this season after they started the year well but their quarterbacks are now healthy and they played the much tougher schedule than Army and they have revenge against the Black Knights. I'll gladly lay the small number. 8* NAVYÂ |
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12-04-17 | Steelers -4.5 v. Bengals | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:30 ET - The Bengals are 5-6 on the season and off of back to back wins. However, Cincinnati has not beaten a single team that currently has a winning record this season. The Bengals best win would be over a 6-6 Bills team. Their other wins include 2 over the 0-12 Browns and 1 each over the 3-9 Colts and 3-9 Broncos. Cincy's last 2 wins have been over a Cleveland team that has lost 13 straight dating back to last season and a Denver team that has lost 8 straight games. The Steelers 9 wins this season include a dominating win in Pittsburgh over these Bengals in late October. Of the other 8 wins the Steelers have, only 2 have been against teams that currently have a losing record this season. Also, Pittsburgh has beaten teams that have the following current winning records: Vikings (10-2), Titans (8-4), and Ravens (7-5). Until the Bengals prove they can step up against a quality opponent I am backing a 9-2 Steelers team that has plenty of motivation here. If Pittsburgh loses this game then their division lead over the Ravens could quickly slip to 1 game with a loss versus Baltimore next week! I am aware of WR Antonio Brown's questionable status for tonight's game but the Steelers are loaded with plenty of weapons in comparison with the Bengals. Also, Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS as a divisional home dog of more than 4 points. The Steelers are 10-0 ATS as a favorite when they are off of a game where they allowed 28 points or more. Also, the fact that they allowed 28 points versus Green Bay is a bit deceiving as the Steelers outgained the Packers by 155 yards but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That result (a 3 point non-covering win as a 2 TD fave) is resulting in line value this week. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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12-03-17 | Eagles -4 v. Seahawks | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - The Seahawks are still without defensive end Cliff Avril who started all 16 games the past 3 seasons and totaled 20.5 sacks the past 2 seasons. Seattle also is without cornerback Richard Sherman and strong safety Kam Chancellor. Also, when you look at the Seahawks overall injury report heading into this game, they've got a number of newer injuries which have resulted in guys being listed as doubtful or out for this game. This is why we're getting extreme line value here. Seattle is simply not healthy and they're now taking on the top team in the league that also is the only team in the league to score at least 20 points in all 11 games this season. The Eagles have won 9 straight games and they've covered 8 straight games and yet the WOUNDED Seahawks are getting a lot of attention from the betting markets this week. Everyone likes to point to Seattle's great home record and their success in primetime but, ladies and gentlemen, this Hawks team is very short-handed right now on defense! As for the Eagles defense, they are one of the best in the league and they are also healthier than they've been for much of this season. QB Carson Wentz is NOT the type of quarterback to struggle in a tough road venue like CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Yes, the Eagles lost here last year but that was his rookie season and was part of a 2-9 stretch for Philly. They are a different team this year and, remember, they went 5-1 last season when offensive tackle Lane Johnson was available. This season Philadelphia has lost only one game with him in the lineup. Look for the Eagles to make it 10 straight wins and 9 straight covers while dropping Seattle to 1-5 ATS in home games this season. Keep in mind, the Seahawks only have one win against a team with a winning record this season and that was when they were healthier and faced the Rams and won despite being outgained by 134 yards! In other words, a fortunate win. Seattle won't be so fortunate here against an Eagles team that is rolling! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-03-17 | Rams v. Cardinals +7 | Top | 32-16 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - This is a very tough spot for the Rams and great spot for the Cardinals and that is why I am unloading on this big dog with a big play. Los Angeles is off of a huge win last week versus the red hot Saints. On deck for the Rams is a huge game with the red hot Eagles. In other words, even though this is a divisional game, this is a truly tough spot for LA to remain focused. Not only are the Cards only 5-6 on the season but the Rams blasted them 33-0 in London in late October. That makes this the perfect "flat spot" for Los Angeles (off New Orleans and with Philadelphia on deck) and yet you've got a highly motivated home dog on the other side of the field. I love having Arizona plus a full TD here as their defense has been particularly strong of late. The Cardinals have allowed an average of just 298 yards per game their last 4 games. Of course the Rams defense has been strong too but how much will they have left in the tank for a "trap game" like this? I feel certain it won't be enough! The Cardinals last 2 wins versus the Rams have come by an average margin of 31 points per game while their 2 losses to the Rams, prior to that ugly one in London, each came by 4 points or less. Entering this season, Los Angeles was 1-11 ATS when facing an opponent off of a SU win as an underdog. That is the case here with the Cardinals as they upset the Jaguars last week as a 6-point dog. That gives the Cards extra confidence as they fight to remain alive in the wild card race. Arizona coach Bruce Arians, with last week's win versus Jacksonville, has led his team to a 10-2 ATS record when they are at home and facing an opponent off of a SU and ATS win in their prior game. Perfect spot to upset the Rams here. Whether the Cards win outright or not, I am certainly comfortable with having them plus the big points here! 10* ARIZONA |
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12-03-17 | Lions +3 v. Ravens | 20-44 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 1 ET - The Ravens are off of a hard-fought win versus the Texans on Monday night. Baltimore also has a game at division rival Pittsburgh on deck. This is not a good spot for the Ravens. While Baltimore comes in on short rest, the Lions come in with extra rest as they played on Thanksgiving Day versus the Vikings. Red hot Minnesota got the better of Detroit and that has the hungry Lions ready to go here. Detroit is 4-1 SU on the road this season. Also, they haven't faced the Ravens since 2013 but that was a home loss and the Lions are 8-1 ATS as a revenging road dog of less than 6 points. Baltimore is 3-8 SU and 2-8-1 ATS in non-conference games! Also, the Ravens are off of back to back wins but they faced two teams (Packers and Texans) that are each without their starting QBs. When Baltimore enters a game on a streak of 2 or more consecutive wins, the Ravens have gone 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS. Additionally, Baltimore is 1-5 ATS after a Monday night game and also 0-7 ATS in their game prior to facing the Steelers. Remember the Ravens got crushed in this role earlier this season when they had a home game versus Pittsburgh on deck and they went to London and got demolished by the Jaguars. 8* DETROIT |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Jets | 31-38 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ New York Jets @ 1 ET - The Chiefs have struggled recently so the Jets are getting a lot of action in this one. But have those people who are jumping on New York actually watched the Jets play recently? This Jets team is bad. The way they handled situations last week versus Carolina was deplorable and that is a game they never should have lost. It just shows how bad the Jets truly are. Now certainly the Chiefs, losers of 3 straight and 5 of 6, have not played well of late but this Kansas City team is still far superior to the Jets. Keep in mind, the Chiefs have allowed an average of just 14 points per game their past two games. Also, KC has held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 20 points or less. By comparison, the Jets have allowed 24 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. Also, New York has allowed an average of 25 points per game in their last 5 home games. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has led his team to an 11-2 ATS mark when they are off of SU loss as a favorite and facing a team with a losing record that is off of a SU loss. Kansas City is 7-1 ATS as a fave of less than 6 points when facing a team with a winning percentage under .400 and the Jets are 4-7, .364 on the season. The Chiefs also are on an 8-2 ATS run as a favorite of 3 points or less. The Jets have already begun another one of their typical ugly late season stretches and are now 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in games played in weeks 10 through 13. The Chiefs are also 12-2 ATS when they are a road fave of less than 7 points against an AFC opponent. KC is the better team and has played the tougher schedule this season in comparison with the Jets and one of these teams today will snap their slump. I'll gladly take the stronger team laying the small number in a case like this. Fade the masses who have brought the Chiefs down to a 3-point fave here. I'll take it! 8* KANSAS CITY |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL +10.5 v. CLEMSON | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #325 Saturday 10* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - It is hard to repeat as champions in any sport at any level - pro or college. It is also difficult to go undefeated in any sport at any level - pro or college. What does that mean for us here? The loss that Miami suffered at Pittsburgh last week was the best possible thing that could have happened to them. Instead of coming into this game 11-0 and with a target on their backs, they are now a hungry 1-loss team. The Tigers also have 1 loss this season but now they again are the "hunted" in this match-up as it is Clemson with the target on their backs. Ranked #1 in the country and the defending national champs, the Tigers are over-hyped and the Hurricanes are getting absolutely zero respect here. Mark Richt is a helluva strong coach and this turnaround at Miami with the Hurricanes football program is no fluke. While Clemson and head coach Dabo Swinney certainly merit plenty of respect, the 58-0 blowout win over Miami in 2015 is something the Canes program is ready to atone for here. That was before Richt got here but he now has this team firing on all cylinders and don't let last week's result fool you. The Hurricanes, sure they made a mistake, but the fact is they were looking ahead to this game. They knew they had the ACC Championship Game on deck no matter what and they'll be ready to go on Saturday night! Miami is 13-1 (93%) ATS as a dog of no more than 14.5 points when they are off of a straight-up loss by 10 or more points! Off of last week's embarrassing loss by a double digit margin at Pittsburgh and now a big dog against Clemson, that system fits perfectly. Revenge from the 58-0 beating is on tap here and Clemson is an ugly 0-4 ATS as a fave when they are opposed by a revenge-seeking team that is coming off of a straight-up loss as a fave. Combined 17-1 (94%) ATS systems here! 10* MIAMI |
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12-02-17 | Georgia v. Auburn +1 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #322 Saturday 10* Auburn Tigers (+) vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 4 ET - In a normal, regular-season situation, with Auburn off of a huge win over the best team in the nation, you would fade them. However, that is what the betting markets are doing here even though this is not even close to being a normal situation! The winner of this game goes to the 4-team playoff. There is no way, absolutely zero chance, that the Tigers come out flat for this game. They've gone from being as a high as a 3 point favorite to now being a dog in this game. I know the location of this game (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta) certainly favors Georgia. However, the Tigers absolutely dominated the Bulldogs 3 weeks ago and that was after playing 3 straight road games! Now Auburn comes into this one off of 3 straight home games and their physicality in the trenches will continue to be the difference in this match-up. The fact that RB Kerryon Johnson is now listed as probable for this game (shoulder) is also a big plus for the Tigers. Look for Auburn to again dominate in the ground game (both sides of the ball) in this match-up. Remember they also hold a big edge at QB with Stidham over Fromm. The Tigers Stidham is much more experienced and the Bulldogs Fromm struggled with all the pressure from Auburn in the first meeting. Nothing changes my mind about that again being an issue in the rematch. Also, in terms of technical support, Georgia is 1-8 ATS when off of back to back SU wins and facing an opponent that is also off of back to back SU wins! As for Auburn, they only failed to cover once in eight SEC games this season! Also, the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 SU in games played on a neutral field with a total between 45.5 and 49 points! 10* AUBURN |
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12-01-17 | Stanford +4 v. USC | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass Top Play - Rickenbach CFB 10* Stanford Cardinal (+) vs USC Trojans @ 8 ET Friday @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA - Even though the Cardinal played last week and USC was off, the location of this game helps mitigate any edge the Trojans would have had in this situation because it is only about 15 miles from Stanford's home stadium in Palo Alto. Also, Southern Cal is the more banged up team even though they had last week off. They've lost a number of starters during this season and that includes 2 on the defensive line. A third one, Rasheem Green, is listed as probable for this one but he is dealing with a shoulder injury. The Cardinal have lost only one game this entire season by more than a field goal and that was against USC earlier this season in an absolutely embarrassing loss. In other words, payback is on order here! The Trojans defense has allowed 797 passing yards in their past two games. Prior to that, they had poor efforts against the ground attacks of Notre Dame and Arizona as those teams gashed USC for a combined 611 rushing yards. In other words, look for RB Bryce Love (probable) and Company to move the ball quite well in this one. The Cardinal defense has allowed an average of just 17 points per game their last 6 games and they've held their opponents to 24 points or less in 8 straight games. In stark contrast to these numbers, the Trojans defense has allowed an average of 29 points per game their last 6 games. Stanford is 15-1 ATS when off of a non-conference game and facing a conference foe that has at least 1 loss on the season. USC is 1-6 ATS when away from home and facing an opponent with a winning percentage under .850 that is off of a SU dog win. The Cardinal were a 3 point dog versus Notre Dame last week and upset the Irish 38-20. I wouldn't be surprised to see another upset here and certainly am happy to grab the generous points being offered in this one. 10* STANFORD |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys +2 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* Dallas Cowboys (+) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:25 ET - Everyone is down on Dallas right now and that is understandable. However, with money pouring in on the Redskins here and the line moving from Cowboys being favored to now Washington being the favorite at -2 as of early gameday morning, you can almost sense what is about to happen here. I expect Dallas to bounce back big and continue their recent string of success against the Redskins. The public is very anti-Cowboys right now and there are grumblings from Dallas fans everywhere about firing Jason Garrett. It is most often, when a team is in a dire situation like this, that they step up and pull it together and surprise everyone and that is exactly what I expect here. Yes the Redskins are off of a 20-10 win but that was against an awful Giants team and that game was tied at 10 apiece very late in the fourth quarter. Prior to that victory the Redskins had lost 4 of 5 and their lone win came by just 3 points in a game in which Washington was actually outgained by nearly 200 yards! In other words, a fortunate win for the Redskins just like last week was a fortunate cover for Washington too! Both teams have injury issues but left tackle Tyron Smith is listed as probable for this game for the Cowboys and certainly they miss Ezekiel Elliott but Alfred Morris has averaged 5.8 yards per carry on the season and I expect Dallas to use him even more in this match-up. Plus Dak Prescott is ready for a bounce back game after recent poor performances. Yes, the Cowboys looked bad against the Chargers no doubt but, prior to that, the first two games they lost without Elliott were to Atlanta and Philadelphia and those are two of the top teams in the NFC! The Redskins are a decent team but certainly not at the same level of the Falcons or Eagles. That said, the Cowboys are ready to respond off of 3 straight blowout losses and they'll do just that against their most storied rival. They've beaten the Redskins 3 straight times and Washington has only covered 7 of 22 (32%) as a road favorite of 3 points or less. I am fading the masses here and going with a contrarian play because the Cowboys are angry and ready to respond on national TV tonight! 8* DALLAS |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens -7 | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Houston Texans @ 8:30 ET - The Ravens have been a great team in primetime games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 MNF appearances. I also like the fact that the Ravens bye was earlier this month so this is just their 2nd game since the bye and they've got fresh legs and are healthier than a Texans team whose bye was 5 weeks ago. Also, Houston sorely misses QB DeShaun Watson. I know Tom Savage played well at QB for the Texans last week but now he faces a ball-hawking Ravens defense that forced 5 turnovers at Green Bay last week when they faced another back-up QB. Also, in each of their last two home games Baltimore has forced a pair of turnovers. This is the Ravens first home game in a month and they are fired up to make the most of it on Monday Night! Remember that Baltimore destroyed Miami 40-0 in a Thursday night game to wrap up October as their primetime success continues. As for the Texans, they are an awful 1-9 ATS in their last 10 MNF appearances. Also, Houston is just 2-7 ATS when they are a dog of more than 3 points in the first of back to back road games and they do have a divisional game on deck at Tennessee on Sunday! The Texans are just 3-10 ATS when they have the Titans on deck. Houston won by 10 last week against Arizona but they are 2-8 ATS under coach Bill O'Brien when they are an underdog and coming off of a SU win by a double digit margin. The Texans, if they had Watson under center, would have the offensive edge but they don't and I am expecting a big game from Ravens QB Joe Flacco here as he takes advantage of a weak Houston pass defense. Comparing the defenses here, the Ravens have a huge edge (especially with no Brian Cushing or JJ Watt for the Texans). Of course Baltimore also have the home field edge and rest edge since they had that recent bye. The Ravens D has produced shutouts in 2 of their last 3 games. The Houston D has given up an average of 36.8 points per game in their last 3 road games. Now you can see why I am calling for a home rout here! 8* BALTIMORE |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (-) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - Had the 49ers NOT beaten the Giants before enjoying their bye week last week this situation would be different as San Francisco would have been coming out of the bye with a winless record. However, since the Niners did beat the G-men before the bye, there is not the same hunger with San Fran that we would have otherwise seen. With that said, the hunger here actually lies with a Seahawks team that is off of a home loss to Atlanta on Monday night and is ready to take out their frustrations on a weaker foe. I know that the Seahawks barely got by the Niners in Seattle earlier this season but the 'hawks offense has been playing much better now compared to how they were playing then. Also, the Seahawks are 12-3 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional SU loss and facing a team with a losing record. That is the case here and it is a beautiful set-up with San Francisco off of a rare win. Also, the 49ers are on an 0-5 ATS run with rest. The Niners are also on a 1-7 ATS run as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. San Francisco also entered this season 2-13 ATS when they enter a game with a losing record and are facing an opponent off of a SU loss at home. The Seahawks come into this one angry and they impose their will here! Before beating a poor Giants team, the Niners had scored just 10 points in EACH of their three prior contests. Seattle is averaging 27.7 points per game their last 7 games! Of course the absence of Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor hurts the Seahawks defense but they still held Atlanta to 279 yards last week. Prior to the home loss to Atlanta, the 'hawks had allowed 18 points or less in 7 of their 9 games this season. This is a complete mismatch and I'll grab the highly motivated road fave that is fighting to remain in the playoff race with a tough game versus the Eagles on deck. The Seahawks know this is a must win game with what is in front of them. 10* SEATTLE |
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11-26-17 | Panthers v. Jets +6 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - The worst loss the Panthers suffered this season was to division rival New Orleans. Two months ago in Carolina the Panthers were soundly defeated by the Saints by a margin of 3 TDs. Why do I mention that here? Carolina has a trip to New Orleans on deck after facing the Jets in New York! This week's game is a horrific spot for the Panthers as they try to maintain their focus with a huge divisional revenge game on deck. The game holds extra meaning too because the Panthers are only one game behind the Saints in the division. As for the Jets they are much more desperate about today's game than any future game! New York needs a win to hang around in the playoff race. Both the Jets and Panthers are off of a bye week so their situation is equal in that regard. However, the value lies with the hungrier home dog that is fully focused on today's game. I also love the fact that the Jets, since starting the season 0-2, have gone 4-4 and the 4 losses have all come by a single possession. In other words, the Jets have been in every single game since late September and I fully expect that to be the case again here. New York is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 games and are 5-0 ATS this season as a home dog. The Panthers are on a 1-7-1 ATS mark as an away favorite. The Jets are also 10-5 ATS after a bye week. 8* NEW YORK JETS |
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11-25-17 | Colorado v. Utah -10.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #188 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 10 PM ET - This is a battle for bowl eligibility and it also is a revenge game for the Utes who lost at Colorado last year. The fact that Utah gave up 10 late points to lose to the Huskies last week strengthens this play as the Utes are angry and hungry! Utah is 6-2 ATS in this series and the Buffaloes are an ugly 1-3 (SU and ATS) in road games this season. Each of the Buffaloes last 3 losses have come by double digits. The Utes not only have the home field edge here, they also have the much better defense as they allow 90 yards less per game than the Buffs do. Colorado is 6-11 ATS as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. Even though the Buffaloes are off of a bye and the Utes are on regular rest, Utah is 14-8 ATS when on rest of 6 days or less. Colorado is 0-5 ATS when playing with rest and is off of their last season bye week. After playing 10 straight weeks and then having a bye, the Buffaloes are unlikely to be sharp and certainly lost any continuity they had going. The Utes are on a revenge mission, home finale mission, and will be the ones to earn bowl eligibility with a win in this one. 10* UTAH |
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11-25-17 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota +18 | 31-0 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #194 Saturday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 3:30 ET - On paper, the Badgers should crush the Gophers. But, of course, they don't play the game on paper and despite all the edges that Wisconsin has here, this line is truly over-priced. Situational analysis is one of the most important elements of handicapping. That said, even though Minnesota has struggled with physical teams and is a one-dimensional team, the Badgers can't help but be peeking ahead to their Big Ten Title game with Ohio State. Yes, Wisconsin wants to remain perfect on the season and I am sure they will. But, they don't need to blowout Minnesota to do that and I know the Golden Gophers are going to go hard on Senior Day in Minneapolis and with Paul Bunyan's Axe up for grabs. The Badgers have won this game 13 straight times BUT the Golden Gophers are a perfect 8-0 ATS their last 8 as a double digit home dog. Also, Wisconsin has gone 1-6 ATS as a road favorite of more than 17 points against a team with a losing record. The Badgers lost (ATS) in this role at Illinois (and the game was even closer than the final score indicated) in late October and I expect another failed cover for Wisconsin here. 8* MINNESOTA |
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11-25-17 | Ohio State v. Michigan +13 | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #154 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - The only other time the Buckeyes have played a tough defense on the road this season, QB JT Barrett threw 4 picks at Iowa and Ohio State got demolished 55-24 by the Hawkeyes. I am not saying the same thing happens here but I am saying a few mistakes by Barrett would not surprise as the Wolverines are one of the top defenses in the nation. Also, I am well aware of the injury situation with Michigan QB Brandon Peters but this line has the Buckeyes extremely over-priced on the road. The fact the line has continued to climb higher has me in play on this one. Though it is only an outside shot, the Buckeyes still have a shot at a playoff spot and that gives the Wolverines even more incentive in this heated rivalry. Ohio State is only 8-13 ATS (including 2-4 ATS this season) when off of a win in Big Ten action. The Wolverines are 10-0 SU in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points and also 5-1 SU when off of a loss against a Big Ten foe. With Michigan getting beaten at Wisconsin last week and Ohio State off of a blowout win versus Illinois, this line has become inflated and there is significant line value with the big dog Wolverines at home. 8* MICHIGAN |
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11-24-17 | Missouri v. Arkansas +10.5 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #126 Friday 8* Arkansas Razorbacks (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ 2:30 ET - Arkansas is seeking revenge and this also could very well be head coach Brett Bielema's last game and it is also Senior Day in Fayetteville. With no bowl game for the Razorbacks this is their bowl game and they would love nothing more than to knock off the upstart Tigers. I am well aware that Missouri has won 5 straight and covered 7 straight but the Tigers still are only 3-4 in SEC action and only 1 of those wins (versus Florida) has come against a foe that actually has an SEC win. Two of the Missouri victories came against Tennessee and Vanderbilt (both 0-7) in SEC action. I realize Arkansas has been a disappointment this season and, for that matter, truly disappointing throughout the majority of Bielema's tenure. However, this is the spot where they step up and an outright upset would not surprise. That said, I'll gladly take the huge home dog points and fade an SEC opponent that is highly over-rated right now! The Hogs are 9-4 ATS when off of a loss in conference action. Missouri is 2-4 ATS when they are a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points! Grab the generous points here. 8* ARKANSAS |
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11-24-17 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -13 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #118 Friday 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 11:30 AM ET - Toledo is off of a blowout road win at Bowling Green last week. That holds extra significance here because the Rockets are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 8 points after a SU win that covered the spread by double digits! After blowing out the Falcons on the road last week, Toledo blows out the Broncos at home this week. The Rockets have plenty of motivation here as they had won 5 straight in this series but have now lost to Western Michigan each of the last two seasons. It is time for payback and they have a huge advantage on the offensive side of the ball as the Broncos have been a different team without Jon Wassink at QB. Western Michigan is also very banged up at the RB position and the Rockets are averaging 513 yards per game on offense. The Broncos average only 400 yards per game on offense. Also, Toledo has played the tougher schedule this season. The Rockets also are on a 7-1 ATS run after facing Bowling Green. Western Michigan already has the 6th win they needed for bowl eligibility while the Rockets are highly motivated here in a double-revenge spot and with needing a win to guarantee a spot in the MAC title game. 8* TOLEDO |
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11-23-17 | Giants +7.5 v. Redskins | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* New York Giants (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - Both teams are banged up but the Redskins have so many injuries they decided against even running a regular practice of 11 on 11 leading into this game. Washington also is a full TD favorite here. With that said, I see great line value with an underdog Giants team that is still playing for pride. New York proved last week they could still rise up as they did just that against the Chiefs and got the tight win. There will be no shortage of motivation here either as they of course detest the division rival Redskins. While one could argue that the Giants will be emotionally flat after a big upset win over Kansas City, keep in mind the Redskins also have emotional issues after letting one slip away against New Orleans last week. Washington put a lot of energy and effort into that game against the Saints and then they ended up walking away empty-handed. That is a very tough on a team and the Redskins have had disappointment as a common theme so far this season with so many blown games. The Giants ended the Skins post-season hopes last year with a late-season win in Washington. They are motivated to do it again here. Yes, it is not quite so late in the season but if the Redskins are dropped to 4-7, the glimmer of hope for the post-season certainly dims! The Giants are 3-1 ATS on grass this season and also a long-term 7-2 ATS in Thursday games. Washington is 2-6 ATS on grass and also a long-term 13-28 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Giants are also 10-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 points when facing a team off of a SU loss. New York is also 7-2 ATS as a divisional dog of more than 4 points. The Giants also are 10-0 ATS when they are dogs off of SU win that covered the spread by double digits! Last week's win rejuvenated the Giants while the Redskins entered this season 0-9 ATS when at home and facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage of .249 or less. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -13.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Thursday 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - Just in time for their biggest game of the season, the Rebels did something Saturday versus Texas A & M that was the last thing they wanted to do. Ole Miss showed Mississippi State the blueprint for how to shutdown their offense as they went scoreless in the 2nd half versus the Aggies after scoring 24 points in the first half. That horrific effort for the Rebels tells the Bulldogs all they need to know and Mississippi State is "out for blood" here. Yes, the Bulldogs did crush the Rebels last season at Ole Miss but they also were crushed at home by double digits two years ago. In that game Ole Miss was up 28 to 3 at halftime of what ended up being a 38-27 home loss that Mississippi State has not forgotten. I know that the new Rebels QB Te'amu has had some solid moments but I also watched him falter badly in last week's loss to the Aggies. The Bulldogs will take advantage of not having to face injured QB starter Shea Patterson and it will be Mississippi State's QB, Nick Fitzgerald, whom shines brightly in this one. With the line dropping down to 13.5 as of T-day morning, I am now pulling the trigger on a match-up I expect will be a blowout. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS at home this season. The Rebels are 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season and also had gone 0-3 ATS at Mississippi State in their last 3 visits before that big win two years ago. Now it is payback time for the Bulldogs. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions +3 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 12:30 ET - The Vikings are off of a big win over the Rams! While the Vikings certainly have been hot, they are now traveling on a short week and facing a division rival that knows this game is critical if they have hopes of catching the Vikes in the NFC North. The Lions have also been hot with wins in 3 straight games. Detroit was only 3-4 before the 3-game winning streak but 3 of those losses were by 5 points or less and the 5-point loss to the Steelers saw the Lions outgain Pittsburgh by 90 yards! The lone ugly loss was to New Orleans but the Saints outgained Detroit by a very slim margin in that game. The point is that the Lions have been playing quite well, perhaps even better than their record shows and I feel Minnesota is very over-rated at this point. Everyone is jumping on the Vikes here because they just saw them shut down the Rams last week. However, that was the first win in this 6-game winning streak for the Vikings that has come against a team that currently has a winning record. I am not sold on a Minnesota team with Case Keenum at QB. I know he has played well recently but we all know his past. I'd much rather have Matthew Stafford on my side at QB and that is also a big part of the reason the Lions are my "side" in this one! The Lions have averaged 314.6 passing yards per game their last 5 games. The Vikings have had only one true road game in their last 5 games and that has helped them build this win streak. In true road games this season Minnesota has been held to 146 passing yards or less in 2 of 3 games. 8* DETROIT |
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11-20-17 | Falcons +1.5 v. Seahawks | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:30 ET - Of course Seattle has revenge from last year's post-season loss to Atlanta. However, the Falcons are looking up at the Seahawks in the overall NFC standings and Atlanta is very hungry to get back to the post-season after the Super Bowl debacle versus the Patriots. A couple of keys to this play include the fact Atlanta has faced the tougher schedule and also the fact that Seattle has more key injuries. Of course at this point in the season teams are going to be banged up but the Seahawks losing Richard Sherman on defense is huge. Then, on offense, even if left tackle Duane Brown is able to play, he won't be 100% and that spells trouble against the Falcons pass rush. I am aware of the fact that Atlanta is without RB Devonta Freeman but they have decent depth in the running game and of course QB Matt Ryan and company are going to attack the Seahawks through the air. Seattle's defense has been further weakened by the loss of safety Kam Chancellor to injury. Back to the strength of schedule I noted above, Seattle's wins have included victories over the Colts, Niners, and Giants and those teams are a combined 6-24 on the season. Also, the Seahawks have beaten the Cardinals and Texans but both those teams have losing records and they faced Houston without QB Deshaun Watson. The only "impressive win" Seattle has would be that they beat the Rams but note that Los Angeles actually outgained them by 136 yards in that game! Only 2 of Atlanta's 5 wins have come against teams that currently have a losing record. Also, the Falcons losses included tough opponents like New England and Carolina. Atlanta is on a 5-1 ATS run against NFC West teams and also on a 10-5 ATS run as an underdog. Seattle is on a 34-50 ATS run when off of a win in divisional action and also on a 1-6 ATS run against NFC South teams. There is a reason this line is so low even though the Seahawks have the better record, are playing with revenge, and are at home. Don't be fooled. The road dog gets it done here. 8* ATLANTAÂ |
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11-19-17 | Eagles -5.5 v. Cowboys | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys were rolling with 3 straight wins prior to last week's loss at Atlanta but it is amazing how quickly things can change in the NFL. First off, Ezekiel Elliott's suspension finally was enforced beginning last week. Then, LB Sean Lee and OL Tyron Smith got hurt. Elliott, of course, is out again this week while Lee also is listed as out due to his hamstring while Smith is listed as doubtful due to his back injury. These aren't just role players, these are KEY players for Dallas as the Cowboys have fared very poorly on defense when Lee is not out there and the absence of Smith really hurts the offensive line. Also, with no Elliott, the 'Boys run game has also been impacted greatly. Now bundle all that together and consider that the Cowboys must host an Eagles team that is rested off of a bye week, has the #1 record in the league, and that hates them with a passion. You truly have the makings of a road rout here because the Eagles won't take their foot off of the gas and they have the ability to get up big here as their offense has been so balanced. QB Carson Wentz has been phenomenal this season but defenses can't just focus on stopping him because Philly has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL and they are loaded at running back after now also adding Jay Ajayi to the group! The Eagles did lose their last visit to Dallas but they also blasted the Cowboys by 14 in the most recent meeting. Also, prior to the loss at Dallas, the 2013, 2014, 2015 seasons saw the road team in this match-up go 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The home field simply hasn't meant much and also Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS their last 6 off of a bye week. Dallas has covered just 2 of their last 11 in the 2nd half of a season when they're facing a team with a winning record. The Eagles have covered 6 straight games overall and they stay hot here! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-18-17 | Missouri v. Vanderbilt +9.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #382 Saturday 10* Top Play Vanderbilt Commodores (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ 7:30 ET - Missouri looks great, don't they? They've won 4 straight games and have been piling up points. They must be ready to join the SEC's elite, right? Far from it! This Tigers team is one of the most over-rated I have ever seen and they are getting way too much respect here on the road. I don't blame the odds makers because they knew everyone would be crazy about Missouri here so they had to set this number high. The point is that the betting markets are fooled and that is why the Tigers are still favored by more than a touchdown as of gameday morning even though they're on the road and their last 4 wins have been against, get this, NO ONE! The Tigers have faced Florida and Tennessee programs in disarray this season (both have fired their coaches this season) and Missouri also faced a pair of non-conference teams that are a combined 6-13 this season. Keep in mind that, prior to this easy stretch of schedule, the Tigers were on the SEC road and lost both games and gave up 93 points! Now certainly I am not saying that Vanderbilt is a powerhouse because they are definitely far from it but what I am saying is that the Commodores are coming to play Saturday and they are a big home dog that absolutely win this game outright! Vandy is off of an embarrassing home loss but they turned the ball over 4 times. This is their home finale and their next game is at dysfunctional Tennessee and the Commodores are sitting on 4 wins. You can bet their going to "bring it" in their home finale as they still have hopes of becoming bowl eligible and certainly a win over the Volunteers is plausible next week. Look for the Tigers to drop to 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points while the Commodores improve to 4-1 ATS as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points. Value is off the charts here because Vandy has played a tougher schedule than Missouri and this particularly true in recent weeks. Even with the Tigers road covers this season they are still just 4-9 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons and they are over-priced here. 10* VANDERBILT |
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11-18-17 | Michigan +7.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #415 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Wisconsin Badgers @ Noon ET - The Badgers deserve plenty of credit for their 10-0 start but they've had a lot of help from the schedule-makers this season. This will prove to be their toughest test yet and, though they've clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game, Wisconsin is playing with unbeaten pressure as they're hoping to keep their CFB playoff hopes alive. The Badgers schedule has been so favorable that this is the first time this season that they are not favored by double digits! Keep in mind, this is even though they are at home for this game so that tells you a lot right there. The Badgers did beat Northwestern but they did not cover and only totaled 306 yards of offense in that game. Wisconsin also beat Iowa last week but they were fortunate as the Hawkeyes had just had the huge upset win of Ohio State the prior week and, as expected, Iowa came out completely flat against Wiscy last week. While the Badgers offense certainly rates better than the Wolverines, the defenses of Michigan is just as good as that of Wisconsin. Also, the Wolverines have faced a slightly tougher schedule than the Badgers this season. The pressure is on Wisconsin here and I am expecting the upset win for Michigan but will certainly grab the generous points. Even though this is the 2nd of B2B road games for the Wolverines, they are actually 5-1 ATS L6 in that situation. Also, Michigan is 6-1 ATS as a dog off of an ATS win by a double digit margin. Also, the Badgers are off of B2B ATS wins for the first time this season. The Wolverines also enter off of B2B ATS wins. That puts into play another solid system here as Wisconsin is 0-7 ATS when off of back to back SU/ATS wins and facing an opponent off of back to back SU/ATS wins! Also, the Badgers are only 1-7 ATS when they are favored by more than 5 points in Big Ten action against a team that has a winning percentage of .601 or more. 10* MICHIGANÂ |
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11-17-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky +3 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 8 ET - Both teams need a win to become bowl eligible but, while the Blue Raiders have an easy home game on deck versus Old Dominion, the Hilltoppers have a very tough road game at Florida International on deck. In other words, Western Kentucky knows they need to get the job tonight at home and I'll gladly grab them as a home dog here. The Hilltoppers have won 6 straight home finales. Also, even though QB Stockstill is back for MTSU, he is only 31 of 61 in his first two games since coming back. Making those numbers even more concerning is the fact that he faced UTEP and Charlotte and those two teams are a combined 1-19 and certainly are the bottom feeders of CUSA. As for Western Kentucky, their passing attack has been rolling for many weeks now. Over their last 5 games, the Hilltoppers have completed 66% of their passes and averaged 381.8 passing yards per game! I am well aware of the fact that WKU has lost 3 straight but they faced a pair of CUSA teams that are a combined 10-2 in conference action this season and their other game was against Vanderbilt, an SEC foe! Even with a tough season the Hilltoppers are still 20-4 SU and 16-8 ATS in conference action the past 3 seasons combined and they'll bounce back big in this crucial game tonight. As for the Blue Raiders, they are 2-7 ATS (and 1-8 SU) in games with a line between +3 and -3 the past three seasons combined. Middle Tennessee laying a field goal here is simply a case of them being over-valued! I'll look for the home dog to notch their 7 straight home finale victory. 8* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:25 ET - The Steelers have a number of edges here. With this being a short week it certainly helps to have the home field edge. Pittsburgh also has played a tougher strength of schedule here. I also am not convinced that Titans QB Mariota is in great shape just yet in terms of his injuries. The concern for Tennessee here is that the Steelers pass rush could definitely wreak havoc on him. The play in the trenches is a big key as to why I am willing to lay the full TD with Pittsburgh here. The Titans are the worst team in the league in terms of generating sacks. Tennessee also rates only in the middle of the pack in terms of pass protection. As for the Steelers, they are up near the top of the NFL for both generating QB pressure and for pass protection. Overall, the Pittsburgh defense is up among the best squads in the NFL. The Titans D ranks only in the middle of the pack. Certainly the Steelers under-performed at Indianapolis last week but they were likely peeking ahead to this match-up with a fellow division leader. Pittsburgh is on a 10-4 ATS run as a non-divisional home favorite while Tennessee is on a 7-15 ATS run as a road dog. The Titans are coached by Mike Mularkey and, as a dog off of a SU win he has a 2-9 ATS record versus a non-division opponent. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the Steelers have excelled historically as they have gone 63-17 SU and 50-30 (63%) ATS! 8* PITTSBURGH |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan +3.5 v. Miami-OH | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Wednesday CFB 8* Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian. The key reason to be a contrarian is because one must recognize and respect that the odds makers are smart. This game is a text book example of that because, remember, the goal of the odds maker is to balance the action. That said, the very first lines that game out on this game were pick'ems. Since then the line has been driven all the way up to a 3.5 in most spots as of early game day morning. Considering that Miami-Ohio is at home and needs to win out to become bowl eligible and also has defeated Eastern Michigan NINE straight times by an average margin of a DOZEN points per game, isn't it strange that the line opened up a pick'em? Exactly! The odds makers set it this way because they knew the public money would come in on the Redhawks here and they wanted to balance the sharp money coming in on the Eagles. You and I will be part of that sharp money. The Eagles have played the tougher schedule. They lost by double digits last week but that was a turnover-driven loss. The yardage stats were very nearly equal! Eastern Michigan has one of the best defenses in the MAC. Again, last week's ugly loss at Central Michigan was keyed by 5 turnovers. Each of the Eagles 3 prior losses were by 3 points or less and the loss to the Chippewas was their first loss this season by more than 7 points. The Eagles are highly motivated here because the Redhawks have had series dominance in this match-up and Eastern Michigan's viewpoint is that if the Eagles aren't going to a bowl than Miami-Ohio isn't going either! I am grabbing the points here but fully expect the upset win. 8* EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-14-17 | Ohio v. Akron +13 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Tuesday CFB 8* Akron Zips (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Zips are still alive in the MAC East race and take on the leader in the standings in this huge game. Not only that, Akron still needs a win to become bowl eligible and their season finale is next Tuesday. Suffice to say this is an ultra-important game for the Zips and coach Terry Bowden has said his team has been fired up from the start of the very first practices for the new "football week" heading into this match-up. Akron is excited to host the MAC East leader and we're getting line value here due to the Zips QB situation. I am well aware of the disciplinary issues against QB Thomas Woodson and the resulting suspension. However, even though he may be out again tonight, back-up QB Kato Nelson actually played quite well despite being under constant pressure last week at Miami-Ohio. The Redhawks have a solid defense (one of the best in the MAC based on yardage allowed) and Nelson did complete 19 of 38 for over 200 yards and a touchdown while battling through six sacks. Look for a better effort from the Zips offensive line in this one and, for that matter, from the entire team as they are fired up about hosting Ohio University with the ESPN cameras rolling tonight. No doubt the Bobcats are the better team here but they truly are over-priced and the Zips are catching them off of that massive win over Toledo (Rockets were last undefeated team in conference action in MAC). Akron has the edge here too in terms of facing an overall tougher schedule this season. Also, short week for Ohio U as they played on Wednesday last week while the Zips played last Tuesday. The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, the Bobcats are 2-9 ATS when off of back to back SU wins and facing an opponent off of a SU loss. Ohio University is 3-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points after scoring more than 35 points the prior week. That means we have combined angles of 21-6 ATS in favor of the Zips. 8* AKRON |
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11-13-17 | Dolphins v. Panthers -8.5 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Carolina Panthers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:30 ET - The Dolphins did have a recent road win (at Atlanta) when the Falcons were clearly caught looking ahead to their Super Bowl rematch game with the Patriots. Other than that win (which was attributable to Atlanta's lookahead), Miami has struggled badly on the road. In the Dolphins other 3 games played away from home since late September, they lost all 3 by a combined score of 60 to 6 - an average margin of defeat of 18 points per game. They lost 20-6 to the Jets in New York, 20-0 to the Saints in London, and 40-0 to the Ravens in Baltimore. Suffice to say the Dolphins have been consistent away from home and it certainly has been a negative consistency. Both teams have played many weeks in a row but the Panthers do have their bye week on deck while the Dolphins lost their bye week do to the hurricane canceling their season opener this year. With that said, even though Carolina is off of a big win over division rival Atlanta, the Panthers are going to go hard here in their final game before the bye week. Carolina's most recent primetime game was that Thursday night loss versus the front-running Eagles last month. They now take on a much lesser foe in primetime action and they look to atone for that defeat. The Panthers are also certainly well aware of the fact that both the Saints and Falcons won yesterday so every win that Carolina can get right now is critical to stay in the hunt in the NFC South. The Panthers have home field edge here and they are the #1 defense in the league taking on the league's worst offense. The Dolphins will find points tough to come by in this one and Carolina, though not an offensive juggernaut, has scored 17 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Dolphins are averaging 2 (just TWO) points per game in their last 3 games away from home. That said, the Panthers, thanks to their tremendous defense, shouldn't have to score much to get the cover here even though this is a big number. Look for Carolina to win this by double digits. Remember that the Dolphins had a VERY fortunate ATS push last week when they scored a TD and a 2 point conversion VERY late to lose by just 3 as a 3-point dog versus Oakland. The Panthers are 10-3 ATS off of a divisional game and 12-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Look for the Dolphins to drop to 5-9 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* CAROLINA |
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11-12-17 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Ezekiel Elliott situation was a huge distraction for the Cowboys but at least he ended up playing. Now, this week, it's different! It looks like the situation finally is resolved and, not only is he not playing this week, he is likely out until Christmas Eve. This is casting a dark cloud over the Cowboys right now and the last thing they need is to be on the road and facing the defending NFC champs who are angry as they come off of a stretch that has seen them lose 4 of their last 5. The Falcons are on an 0-5 ATS run but this is a great spot to back them. They ougained the Panthers in their loss at Carolina last week and they have plenty of confidence when it comes to facing the Cowboys. In their last meeting, in Dallas, the Cowboys were up 28-17 at the half but the Falcons won the 2nd half 22-0. Between October 15th and November 26th, this is Atlanta's one and only home game! In other words, you can absolutely bank on a strong effort from the Falcons here especially since they are off of rare back to back losses in their two most recent home games (even though Atlanta ougained the opposition in each game). The Cowboys are on an 0-5 ATS run against NFC South teams the past two seasons. Dallas is also on a 9-18 ATS run in games played on turf. The Falcons are 4-1 SU against NFC East opposition the past two years and laying just 3 here is a great value! The Cowboys running game will be hurt by Elliott's absence and the Falcons have the much better passing game! 10* ATLANTA |
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11-12-17 | Bengals +5.5 v. Titans | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals (+) vs Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Titans have won 3 straight games but they've been outgained in each of the last two games (each of those being wins by just 3 points apiece). Also, Tennessee is off of a tough game versus the physical Ravens and has another tough match-up (with the physical Steelers) on deck. There is no sugarcoating anything about Cincinnati. The Bengals have not been playing well and they've failed to cover 3 straight games. However, Cincy had won 3 of 4 prior to the loss at Jacksonville last week and that still gives them enough confidence to bounce back after the loss to the Jaguars and I feel they will do just that. The Bengals only scored 7 points in last week's defeat at the hand of the Jags and Cincinnati is 6-1 (86%) ATS when off of a game where they were held to less than 10 points. Tennessee, entering this season, was 1-10 ATS when facing a non-divisional opponent off of a SU loss by more than 10 points. That system fits here as the Bengals were crushed by 16 points last week. The Titans upcoming game against the Steelers is on Thursday night and that is also significant here as Tennessee knows they have a short week to prepare for another physical, tough match-up. I would not be surprised to see the Titans overlook the Bengals given this situation and, in fact, Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in their game before a Thursday game! 8* CINCINNATI |
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11-12-17 | Chargers +5 v. Jaguars | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Jaguars are off of back to back wins but they faced a pair of teams (Bengals and Colts) that are a combined 6-11 this season. I know the Chargers also have a similar unimpressive record but Los Angeles comes into this game off of their bye week and they had won 3 of 4 games heading into their bye. Also, the Chargers first 4 losses this season featured 3 by a field goal or less! Another big difference in terms of the challenge the Jaguars will face today is at the QB position. They faced Indianapolis without Luck and they faced a Cincinnati team that has been having major issues at the signal-caller position. Now they face a Rivers-led Chargers team that has a much better passing attack than those two teams. I am aware that Jacksonville's pass defense has been rock solid this season but Rivers and company come back from the bye week with fresh legs and ready to attack. The Chargers are averaging 244 passing yards per game and are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Jags. Jacksonville is an ugly 4-14 ATS when they are a home favorite against a non-divisional foe. The Chargers are on a 6-2 ATS run when on the road and facing a non-divisional opponent with a winning percentage above .600 and that system fits here. Also, the Jaguars are 0-10 ATS when they are at home, playing with revenge, and off of a double digit ATS cover. That system fits here as well! 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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11-11-17 | Purdue v. Northwestern -4 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #172 Saturday 10* Northwestern Wildcats (-) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 7 ET - Purdue's starting QB David Blough got hurt in the win versus Illinois last weekend and is out for the season. Boilermakers back-up signal-caller Elijah Sindelar will be under center today and the sophomore has 3 interceptions and no touchdowns in his two Big 10 road games this season and one of those was against Rutgers! That doesn't bode well for Sindelar here as he faces a Wildcats team that is rolling with momentum right now. Conventional wisdom says to fade a team off of an OT win but Northwestern is simply on fire right now as they've won 4 straight games and each of the last 3 have been in overtime! The Wildcats are a team on a mission right now and they've blasted Purdue by a combined 66-31 the last two years! Northwestern and the Boilermakers have each faced Wisconsin and Nebraska and if you look at the stats from those two games you will see that the Wildcats fared much better than Purdue. They are truly an under-valued home fave here and I am not about to get in front of the freight train especially with Sindelar getting the start for the Boilermakers here. Look for the Cats to take this one by double digits. 10* NORTHWESTERN |
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11-11-17 | Virginia +12 v. Louisville | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #163 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Louisville Cardinals @ 3:30 ET - All 3 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less - average margin of 5.3 points. With the Cardinals opening up as a double digit fave and then moving even higher (now favored by a dozen) I'll gladly get involved with the Cavaliers here. Simply put, it just wasn't the Cardinals season. Yes they are off of their bye week but no matter what they do the rest of the way they know they will have underachieved expectations. Conversely, Virginia is making good strides in Bronco Mendenhall's 2nd season and there is also some solid technical support for this play. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS when they are on the road off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points. That lone loss in that system just happened when they got annihilated by Pittsburgh by a final score of 31-14 but that one truly was a "phony final" as the Cavs actually outgained the Panthers in that game. Riding the momentum of last week's win over Georgia Tech, QB Benkert and company can have another big game here. The Cardinals defense has struggled this season including allowing a ridiculous 519.5 yards per game in conference action. With just a 2-4 record in ACC action, Louisville is mentally fatigued at this point in the season while the Cavaliers are riding the momentum of their best season since 2011 (which is also their last bowl appearance). Give me the big points in this one! 8* VIRGINIAÂ |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -6 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Push | 0 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 8* Seattle Seahawks (-) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:25 ET - The Seahawks are fired up after a home loss to the Redskins. Seattle did outgain Washington by 193 yards in the defeat! Arizona is off of a win but it came against the 0-9 Niners. In fact, two of the Cardinals 4 wins have come against win-less San Francisco and the other two wins came against the 2-6 Buccaneers and 3-6 Colts! Seattle is 6-2 ATS in games played between weeks 10 and 13 the past two seasons combined. Arizona is on a 3-7 ATS run as an underdog and 3-13 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals are also on an 0-10 ATS run when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 points or less! Arizona is also 0-6 ATS in Thursday games versus teams with a winning record. Seattle is on a 7-0 ATS run in Thursday games. That means we have a combined edge of 23-0 ATS favoring the revenge-minded Seahawks in this one. They lost at home to the Cardinals in their most recent meeting on Christmas Eve last year. Time for payback Thursday. 8* SEATTLE |
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11-08-17 | Toledo -3.5 v. Ohio | 10-38 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Wednesday Watch-n-Win - Rickenbach CFB 8* Toledo Rockets (-) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Rockets had won 12 in a row over the Bobcats before being upset as a two-TD favorite at home last season. Toledo hasn't forgotten that loss and is ready to avenge it here. Both of these teams have been winning this season but the Rockets have played the tougher schedule. Also, Toledo is averaging 100+ yards more in the passing game than the Bobcats are there will be light winds with no precipitation on a chilly evening in Athens tonight. That means the passing game can excel and Ohio U, other than games against Hampton (FCS team) and Kent State (worst offense in FBS), has allowed an average of 305 passing yards per game this season! Though the Bobcats beat Miami-Ohio last week the Redhawks were still without QB Gus Ragland. As for the other 3 wins Ohio U has in MAC action, they came against teams that are a combined 7-20 this season! Now the Bobcats take a big step up in terms of level of competition and 3 of the Rockets 5 wins in MAC games have come against teams that currently have an overall winning record. Those 3 wins all came by double digit margins too and averaged a 19 point margin of victory! Toledo is on an 8-1 ATS run as a road fave. This line has dropped all the way down to 3.5 and, as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, the Rockets are a long-term 31-16 ATS! As for Ohio U., prior to back to back home covers against the wounded Redhawks and deplorable Golden Flashes, they had been on a 2-5 ATS run in home games versus FBS foes. They are again being over-valued here and I'll gladly fade the line move here as this line had opened up in the 7 range! 8* TOLEDO ROCKETSÂ |
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11-05-17 | Raiders -3 v. Dolphins | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (-) @ Miami Dolphins @ 8:30 ET - This is the time of the season where it generally pays to invest in teams that have under-achieved but are still poised to make a move. The Raiders certainly fit the bill as that type of team. Oakland already beat Kansas City this season and they still have another game against the Chiefs coming up so the Raiders are still very much "alive" in the AFC West. While it looks like Oakland just got blasted at Buffalo last week, the Raiders actually outgained the Bills but were done in by turnovers in the 34-14 loss. Oakland has a bye week on deck so they're certainly going to go "all out" here and I'll take Derek Carr over Jay Cutler any day of the week! Yes, Cutler is due back for the Dolphins this week but the QB has aveaged 136 passing yards in his last 4 starts. Carr worked out the kinks in his first start back from injury when he faced the Chiefs a few weeks ago. Since that start he has had two more starts and has averaged 365 passing yards per game! You can see that's nearly triple what Cutler has produced. The Dolphins have the worst offense in the NFL and they simply won't be able to keep up here. I know Miami has a solid defense but the Raiders defense, for the most part, has played well this season. They had 2 sub-par efforts - against the Redskins and Chiefs - but the Dolphins offense is not comparable to those two offenses. That said, in Oakland's other 6 games this season they have allowed an average of just 326 yards per game! The Dolphins poor performance on offense last week was the 4th time in their last 6 games that they have been held to 225 yards or less of TOTAL offense! The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. 8* OAKLAND |
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11-05-17 | Redskins +8 v. Seahawks | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - The Redskins are only 3-4 on the season but 2 of the losses came to the NFL's hottest team, the Eagles. The other two losses came against the Cowboys and Chiefs. That means the 3 teams the Skins have lost to have a combined record of 16-6. As for the Seahawks, yes they are an impressive 5-2 on the season but 3 of the 5 wins came against the Niners, Giants, and Colts. Those teams are a combined 3-20 this season! Seattle's other two wins came against the Texans and Rams. Houston actually has a losing record this season and the Rams only lost to the Seahawks because of 5 turnovers. LA actually outgained Seattle by 134 yards in that game! The point is that this match-up is set up perfectly this week in terms of value because, right now, the Redskins are vastly under-valued and the Seahawks are greatly over-valued. Seattle gave up over 500 yards to Houston last week. This is not the same Seahawks teams of their dominant years. Yes they are 5-2 this season but the schedule has been kind to them and now they face a much tougher test. The Redskins know that if they're going to make a push it must start now. Washington lost to Seattle in Jay Gruden's first season here as head coach, in 2014. Payback is on order here and the Redskins are 18-8 ATS when on rest of 6 days or less between games. Seahawks off of the emotional late fourth quarter win over the Texans last week where they expended a ton of energy in a valiant effort. In front of them, Seattle also has a short week to prepare for a divisional match-up Thursday at Arizona. 10* WASHINGTON |
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11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants +5 | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* New York Giants (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 1 ET - The Giants are coming off of their bye week and, prior to that, they did lose to Seattle as a 4 point home dog. However, previous to that defeat, the Giants were on a 5-0 ATS run as a home dog of 4 points or more. Now, fresh off of a bye week and hosting a Rams team that, though also off of a bye week, is off of a big divisional win over the Cardinals in London, New York is in a good situational spot here. Los Angeles is 2-5 SU (and ATS) when off of a win over a division rival. While it is true that the Giants already have 6 losses on the season, they haven't thrown in the towel yet! They have some injury issues but the bye week certainly did them some good and the Giants know that, with a win, it means every potential wild card team in the NFC would already have at least 3 losses. Also, New York has another winnable game (facing win-less San Francisco) on deck. So don't count out the Giants just yet. They've gone 6-2 ATS in November games the past two seasons and they are looking to make a push here in the 2nd half of their season. This is a perfect spot to back them against an over-confident Rams team that is likely to overlook them. 8* NEW YORK GIANTSÂ |
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11-05-17 | Ravens +3.5 v. Titans | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Ravens Joe Flacco is now listed as probable for this game and Baltimore's spirits have also been bolstered by the 40-0 win over Miami last week. Statistically that win was not as impressive as the final score but the fact is that Ravens defense certainly answered the call. Keep in mind, Baltimore has now allowed an average of only 285 yards per game their last 4 games. Even though the Titans are off of their bye week, the Ravens game last week was on Thursday so they're well-rested too. Also, the concern for Tennessee here is that they are facing a tough defense and the Titans offense has been rather anemic of late. Yes, Tennessee had a big game against Indianapolis but the Colts are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Other than destroying Indy, the Titans other 3 games since September went into the books have seen Tennessee average only 217.3 yards of total offense per game! The Titans are on a 2-7 ATS run in November games and also Tennessee is on a 1-5 ATS run as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore is 4-2 ATS against AFC teams this season and 6-2 SU in November games the past two years. More of the same here! 8* BALTIMORE |
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11-05-17 | Bucs +7 v. Saints | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - At first glance this looks like a mismatch as the 2-5 Bucs are on the road at the 5-2 Saints. New Orleans has won 5 straight games (both SU and ATS) while Tampa has lost 4 straight games (SU) and is on a win-less (0-5-1) stretch ATS! As the saying goes...on any given Sunday...and in this case it looks like an upset could be in the offing here! The Saints defense looks much improved but, keep in mind, 3 of their last 4 games have been against offensively-challenged opponents! Miami and Chicago are two of the worst teams in the league on offense. Also New Orleans faced the Packers after Aaron Rodgers was hurt. Everyone knows Green Bay's offense is hurting badly without Rodgers! So what has the Saints D done in their other 4 games this season? They've allowed 29 points per game and 415 yards per game! In other words, I am not sold on the Saints D just yet! Now that New Orleans D faces a Bucs passing attack that is averaging nearly 300 yards passing per game. Certainly Tampa Bay's defense has struggled at times this season but turnovers by the offense certainly has put the Bucs D in bad spots at times. The fact is that the Saints have forced opponents into more than 1 turnover in just 2 of their 7 games. I don't expect the Buccaneers to be impacted by turnovers here. In fact they may end up on the right side of the turnover battle here as they've forced 6 turnovers in their last 4 games and the Saints have turned the ball over 7 times in their last 3 games. Each of the last 6 meetings have been decided by no more than 7 points and we're getting great line value with this one at 7 points. Also, the Bucs lost 17-3 versus Carolina last week and that is noteworthy here as TB is 11-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points when they're off of a games where they were held under 10 points! Also, Saints head coach Sean Payton has a 2-13 ATS mark when favored off of a non-divisional game and now facing a divisional opponent playing with revenge. The Bucs are looking at avenge December's loss at New Orleans! Also, the Saints are an ugly 2-16 ATS when they are at home in divisional action and facing an opponent that lost their prior game by double digits compared to the spread. That system is also in play here and I look for the Buccaneers to be in this one all the way and to either spring the upset or lose by 6 or less. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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11-04-17 | Stanford +1 v. Washington State | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #421 Saturday 10* Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Washington State Cougars @ 3:30 ET - This is a big-time revenge game for the Cardinal as they were embarrassed 42-16 at Stanford by the Cougars last season. The weather for this one in Pullman, WA actually favors the Cardinal. Washington State likes to throw the ball a lot (84 pass attempts last week!) and the weather is expected to be right around freezing with light snow showers this afternoon. That means the physical Stanford ground game could certainly be the key. The Cardinal are known for being physical on both sides of the ball and having RB Bryce Love (listed as probable now) back for this game is a big plus. The Cougars allowed 310 rushing yards (and 9.1 yards per carry!) at Arizona last week. Washington State also is playing a 10th straight week! They finally have a bye after this game but, from a physicality standpoint, the Cougars are likely to struggle to match Stanford here. The Cardinal just had their bye two weeks ago and, in fact, seemed to "sleep-walk" out of their bye as they struggled (and were actually fortunate) to get by Oregon State last week! However, the Cardinal also were clearly looking ahead to this big revenge game and they'll take advantage of a Washington State team that is suddenly having issues at QB. Falk got benched but his back-up, Hilinksi, threw for a ton of yardage but threw 4 picks! Hilinski makes too many mistakes and Falk is an "over-thinker" and "perfectionist" which is the type of QB that is unlikely to respond well off of a benching. In other words, the Cougars recent struggles (have lost 2 of 3) continue here against a Cardinal team that has won 5 straight games! Washington State is 1-7 ATS as a home fave of less than 10 points when facing an opponent with revenge. Cougars also are 0-5 ATS as a favorite when they are off of a game where they scored more than 30 points and are now facing a team with a winning record. Combined 12-1 ATS spot favoring the Cardinal here. 10* STANFORD |
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11-04-17 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia +9.5 | 36-40 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #348 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 3 PM ET - We're getting solid line value here because the Cavaliers are off of back to back ugly losses and the Yellow Jackets have been a covering machine this season. Also, Georgia Tech is off of a loss so many expect that they will bounce back here. However, this is truly a "sandwich spot" for the Jackets as they're off of a big game at Clemson and they have another big game, hosting Virginia Tech, on deck. That said, Georgia Tech may not be fully focused on this Cavaliers team and I am expecting Virginia to give them plenty of trouble here. Keep in mind that the last time the Cavs hosted the Jackets (in 2015) they got the outright upset win at home. Then, even though the Cavaliers lost last season's meeting at Georgia Tech, the Cavs actually outgained the Yellow Jackets by 88 yards and had a 25-8 edge in first downs! Suffice to say the 14 points loss for Virginia was a "phony final" and I expect the Cavaliers to again play very tough versus the Yellow Jackets. Part of the reason they fared so well against the Jackets (statistically) in last year's match-up is the fact that the Cavs are coached by Bronco Mendenhall who faced the option plenty of times during his tenure at BYU. that said, and with solid defensive personnel on hand this season, look for the Cavaliers to again enjoy success in slowing the Jackets run game. Last season Georgia Tech was held under 200 yards of rushing which is an accomplishment as, for example, this season GT averages 348 rushing yards per game. The Yellow Jackets are 0-3 ATS (and SU!) as a road favorite in recent seasons and an outright upset here would not surprise. However, I am certainly grabbing the generous points being offered. The Cavaliers are on a 6-2 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Also, the host in this series with Georgia Tech is on a 7-0 ATS run. Additionally, the Cavs are 5-0 ATS when off of back to back losses (SU and ATS) and facing an opponent who is off of a SU loss! That system is in play here and means we have angles that are a combined 12-0 ATS in favor of the home dog here! 8* VIRGINIA |
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11-03-17 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -6.5 | 25-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Florida Atlantic Owls (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6 ET - Of course the Thundering Herd would love nothing more than to knock off the last undefeated team in Conference USA action. However, the Owls have played a much tougher schedule than the Herd and this is what the betting markets appear to be overlooking as they continue to pound Marshall in this one. As of very early gameday morning this line has dropped all the way down from as high as double digits earlier in the week to just 6.5 in many spots. I am happy to lay the points here considering that Marshall's 3 wins in CUSA action came against teams that are a combined 6-17. When the Thundering Herd finally stepped up and faced tougher competition they lost by double digits to a Florida International team that is now 5-2 overall on the season. Also, that game against the Golden Panthers was at Marshall! Now the Herd are at a 5-3 Florida Atlantic team that is 5-3 overall on the season and 4-0 in CUSA action. Owls non-conference action included facing Wisconsin and in terms of CUSA games they've faced (and defeated) North Texas and Western Kentucky - each of those teams are 5-3 this season. Certainly Marshall has the better numbers on defense this season but, again, strength of schedule must be factored in. Also, in addition to the home field edge here, the Owls certainly have the much stronger offense in this match-up. Florida Atlantic is averaging 47.2 points per game their last 6 games. Marshall has won all 4 meetings with the Owls so payback is certainly on order here! The Thundering Herd are on a 2-5 ATS run in November games and could run out of gas here on a short week and playing their 4th road game in the past 6 weeks and dealing with the heat and humidity of South Florida. Payback time for the Owls! 8* FLORIDA ATLANTIC |
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11-02-17 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -8 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday CFB 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 6 ET - Both these teams come into this game at 4-0 in conference action. However, the key is that the teams the Huskies have played entered this week with a combined overall record of 8-25 on the season! The Rockets have faced a couple of weak teams too but they also have faced two teams with overall winning records, Akron and Central Michigan, and Toledo won those games by a combined score of 78-31. Of course the betting markets are seeing a pair of teams undefeated in conference action and that have played to tight finishes in recent seasons and they're jumping all over the big dog here. That is why a game where the very first numbers to come up were double digits has been driven down to a 7.5 as of early gameday morning. I love to fade the masses and I think the Huskies are in for a "rude awakening" here as they finally are facing a tough MAC foe for the first time this season. The Rockets last 3 wins have all come by a margin of at least 20 points and Toledo is a long-term 30-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois had defeated the Rockets 6 straight times prior to last season's loss in this series. However, the Rockets aren't done getting revenge as they haven't beaten the Huskies in Toledo since the 2009 season! Payback is on order here and the Rockets offense (40.5 ppg, 520.6 ypg) will prove to be too much for the Huskies (27.9 ppg, 398.0 ypg). 8* TOLEDO |
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10-31-17 | Miami-OH +9 v. Ohio | 28-45 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
ESPN Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday CFB 8* Miami (OH) Redhawks (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 8 ET - The Redhawks might get QB Gus Ragland back tonight. Even if he does not play Billy Bahl looked solid in his 3rd straight game under center as he led Miami to victory versus Buffalo last week. The Bobcats have the better record this season but Ohio U has played a weaker schedule and they also have big games on deck with Toledo and Akron. The Bobcats injury issues are mounting. With the loss of RT Jared McCray for this game and RG Durrell Wood already having been injured, the entire right side of Ohio's offensive line has been impacted. Also, two of their projected starters at WR are out for this game as Keevon Harris has been downgraded to being out for this game and they lost Elijah Ball for the year before the season even started. Also, before the season started they lost returning safety Mayne Williams to injury and now DE Sam McKnight is out for this game. Truly the Redhawks are the healthier team and QB Ragland had been eyeing this game for his return. I love having the points in a rivalry game like this and this is "The Battle of the Bricks". Miami is seeking revenge for having lost the past two meetings and scoring a total of just 10 points in those two games. It is payback time here and the win versus the Bulls last week certainly helps the confidence factor. The Redhawks have allowed 21 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games and have a solid defense. One of the two games where Miami allowed more than 21 was against Notre Dame and of course that was expected! Ohio U comes into this game off of a dominating win over Kent State but the Golden Flashes offensive production (thanks in part to QB injuries) has been a disaster. Prior to holding Kent to 3 points, the Bobcats allowed an average of 33.3 points per game in their 6 prior games. That said, it's tough to cover a big number when you're giving up big points and you have a rather mediocre offense. Ohio U has some big point totals this season but they had been held under 400 yards in 3 of their 6 prior games before exploding against a bad Golden Flashes team last week. The Redhawks D has held 6 of their 8 opponents under 362 yards this season! 8* MIAMI (OH) |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - Turnovers hurt badly in football and the Broncos have turned the ball over 3 times in each of their past two games. Keep in mind, Denver had started the season with a 3-1 record. Then they lost the winless Giants even though they outgained New York by a margin of 412 to 266. That was followed by a shutout loss (first for Broncos in 25 years) at Los Angeles last week against the Chargers. In that game Denver did outgain LA but they lost by 21 at the scoreboard. The point is that we're getting some solid line value this week with the Broncos at Kansas City because their results the past two weeks don't tell the full story. The fact is that Denver's defense ranks near the very top of the NFL while Kansas City's defense ranks near the very bottom of the NFL. Also, while the Chiefs seem to rate a huge edge on offense, a lot of the Broncos problems have been related to turnovers and missed opportunities. The way Denver has moved the ball ranks them in the middle of the league in terms of production on offense. The Broncos have won 7 of their last past 10 meetings with the Chiefs. Also, Kansas City enters this game off of a very tough last minute loss at Oakland last week. Not only are those defeats the toughest type to bounce back from, note that the Broncos are 12-2 ATS in divisional games when they are facing an opponent that is off of a loss (SU and ATS) in divisional action. That system fits here as the Chiefs were a 3-point fave at Oakland last week and lost outright to the Raiders. Also, KC is 1-9 ATS in their game after facing the Raiders. Last but certainly not least, the Chiefs are 1-8 ATS as a home fave in divisional action when they are off of a loss (SU and ATS) and facing an opponent off of a SU loss. I love the systems in play here in addition to the fact that I get an under-valued defense-minded divisional dog that is ready to explode with a strong game under the lights on Monday Night Football. 10* DENVER |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -3 v. Lions | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Detroit Lions @ 8:30 ET - At first glance this seems like a tough spot for the Steelers. The Lions are coming in rested off of their bye week and Pittsburgh is off of back to back big wins as they knocked off the previously undefeated Chiefs two weeks ago and then the division rival Bengals last week. However, the Steelers are the play here for numerous reasons. One is that Pittsburgh already had their "wake up call" three weeks ago when they got embarrassed on their home filed by the Jaguars. The Steelers took it to heart and they've used that as their motivation going forward. Also, Pittsburgh does have their bye week on deck and when they return from the bye they face a bad Colts team. In other words, there is no doubt the Steelers are fully focused on the Lions in a big primetime game as Pittsburgh knows they can rest later. They certainly won't let up tonight. Keep in mind, the Steelers are the #1 defense in the league and that is thanks in large part to their success defending the pass. Everyone knows the NFL is now a passing-dominated league and a key to success is stopping the pass. The Lions, unlike the Steelers, rank in the bottom third of the league in pass defense. Additionally, Detroit is ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of offensive production while the Steelers are in the top third of the league. The Lions have given up 39.5 points per game in their past two games. Detroit's production on offense at home has also dropped with each game as the yardage has gone from 367 to 324 to 242. The Lions also are 1-12 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Also, when Detroit is off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points and they're now facing a team that is off of a SU win, the Lions have gone 1-10 ATS! On deck for the Lions is a Monday night game at Green Bay and Detroit is on a 1-6 ATS run in their game before facing the Packers. Also, the Lions are just 1-4 ATS the game before a MNF game. The Steelers are 4-1 in games where they are a road favorite of 3 points or less and they are offering great value as a small fave here as they are fired up about staying hot and earning one more win before their bye week! 8* PITTSBURGH |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins +2.5 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Year - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the road team has covered 6 straight in this series. However, the Redskins have played the tougher schedule this season and the Cowboys are getting way too much respect as this line has continued to move in their direction all week long and now through early gameday morning as well. The fact is that Dallas has faced only 2 winning teams this season while the Redskins have faced only 2 losing teams so far this year. Also, the Cowboys are off of a win but have yet to win back to back games this season while the Redskins are off of a loss and have yet to lose back to back games this season. Also, the Cowboys did win both games over the Redskins last season. This is a huge rivalry and Washington is hungry for payback here. The Cowboys are off of a big win over the 49ers but of course San Francisco is a winless team this season. In fact, the 3 wins Dallas has this season have come against teams that are combined 4-17 on the season! The Redskins have played a tough schedule and 2 of their losses have been to the 6-1 Eagles. Also, Washington did beat Oakland by 17 and the Raiders are better than their record would indicate. Also, the Redskins knocked off a Rams team that is 5-2. Most all of you probably also remember the Washington primetime game at Kansas City where the Redskins clearly looked like the better team before suffering a tight loss that was much closer than what the final score indicates. That was a bad beat for Skins backers and Washington clearly could have won the game outright too! The situation here is also set up well even though the Redskins are on a short week. The Cowboys are 2-11 ATS in divisional games when they are a road favorite off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin and now facing an opponent who is off of a straight-up loss! The Redskins are a perfect 6-0 ATS when they are a home dog and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .401 or more. The Skins already knocked off the 2-0 Raiders with that same system in play earlier this season. 10* WASHINGTON |
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10-29-17 | Panthers +2 v. Bucs | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The Panthers are off of back to back losses but the first one came to the hottest team in the league, Eagles, and the second one saw Carolina lose despite holding the Bears to 153 yards of offense! Sometimes "fluke" games do happen and Chicago beat the Panthers 17-3 despite Carolina winning the yardage battle by 140 yards over the Bears. Suffice to say, the Panthers are fired up after back to back losses and they're ready to take out their frustration on a division rival. While Carolina is allowing only 261.9 yards per game (one of the top defenses in the league), Tampa Bay is allowing 408.5 yards per game and ranks as one of the worst defenses in the league. The Panthers are on a 7-2 ATS run as an underdog. The Buccaneers are on a 2-9 ATS run as a home favorite. Also, the Panthers are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last 8 meetings with Tampa Bay. 8* CAROLINA |
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10-28-17 | USC -3 v. Arizona State | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
PAC-12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #173 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10:45 ET - After everyone watched USC get blasted at Notre Dame last week no one will want the Trojans here. The fact is that Southern Cal made some key early mistakes against the Fighting Irish and it "snowballed" from thereon. This is helping to give us some great line value because USC is still a very high quality team and they have played a bit of a tougher schedule than Arizona State has. Also, the Sun Devils caught a break last week against Utah as it was Utes QB Huntley's first game back. Yes ASU also knocked off Washington the prior week but just how good were the Huskies anyway? Washington was indeed undefeated at the time but the Huskies had played a very weak schedule and, in fact, were a favorite of at least 28 points in 5 of their first 6 games. Keep in mind, before these two solid defensive performances for ASU, they had allowed 483.6 yards per game! I am not sold on the Sun Devils defense just yet! Now Arizona State takes on an angry USC team playing with a chip on its shoulder and, before last week's loss to the Irish, the Trojans had gained over 450 yards of offense in 6 of their first 7 games. USC beat the Sun Devils by 3 TDs last season and by 4 TDs the prior season! Remember too that ASU's win last week was at Utah (a very physical team) and the Sun Devils may not have much left in the tank here! The Trojans are 11-0, 100% ATS when they are favored and are off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points! Southern Cal makes a statement tonight and that record moves to 12-0, 100% ATS! 10* USC |
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10-28-17 | Michigan State v. Northwestern +3 | 31-39 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #186 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - A ranked Michigan State team opened up right around a pick'em in this game and, of course, the public and the betting markets are all over the Spartans. This line has been driven up to as high as a 3 as of early gameday morning and I'll gladly grab the home dog here. First off the Spartans are off of a miracle cover last week as they were laying about a TD versus Indiana and were down 9-3 before scoring two TDs in the final 6 minutes. Michigan State is simply an over-rated football team this season and they're likely to be exposed these next few weeks. The Spartans have Penn State and Ohio State on deck after this "tougher than it looks" match-up with Northwestern. The Wildcats defense has allowing an average of just 338 yards per game their last 5 games and that included match-ups with Wisconsin and Penn State! Northwestern is at home for the 3rd time in 4 weeks while the Spartans are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks plus have a "lookahead" situation with the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes on deck! Of course the Spartans have a strong defense but their struggles on offense are evident this season with just 22.7 points per game and they've been held to 18 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The Wildcats have averaged 447 yards per game at home this season while the Spartans have averaged just 308 yards of offense on the road this year. The line move has opened up great value here and Michigan State is on an 0-7 ATS run as a road favorite. The Wildcats are on a 9-3 ATS run in games played in Weeks 5 through 9 of a season. 8* NORTHWESTERN |
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10-28-17 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -3 | 38-37 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #204 Saturday 8* Ole Miss Rebels (-) vs Arkansas Razorbacks @ Noon ET - The loss of Austin Allen to injury at QB for Arkansas means Cole Kelley gets the start here. While Ole Miss also is without starting QB Shea Patterson, I like their replacement more than the Kelley for Allen situation. I also like the fact that Jordan Ta'amu gets this start at home. From a situational standpoint this is a great spot for Ole Miss as they're playing their 3rd straight home game while the Razorbacks are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. Also, Arkansas has lost 3 straight games by an average margin of 30 points per game! The Rebels have revenge from a 4 point loss at Arkansas last season as well as a loss (in 4 OT!) the last time Ole Miss hosted the Razorbacks. Prior to last week's loss to LSU, the Rebels were a perfect 3-0 at home this season. As for Arkansas, they have lost both road games and their other game played away from home (neutral site) this season. This line has dropped all the way down to a 3 but it is certainly worth noting that the Rebels are 4-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the long-term numbers on that are 19-6 SU and 17-8 ATS. Good spot for a big home win as Ta'amu is a dual-threat QB who certainly has a ton of potential. You'll see that today! 8* OLE MISS |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Thursday NFL 8* Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:25 ET - The Ravens are banged up (particularly) on offense but they also are fired up and have enough healthy bodies here to get the job done against the Dolphins. Baltimore is out to prove themselves at home in a primetime game and this is when teams playing with a chip on their shoulder tend to be at their best. Look for Joe Flacco and company to surprise people tonight. Though it has been a frustrating season for the Ravens QB thusfar, Flacco has been better at home and only 3 of the 4 "home" games for Baltimore have been true home games as one was played in London. Baltimore has scored 24 points in 2 of their 3 games played in Baltimore and that type of production should be enough to take down the Dolphins. Sure Miami looked better after Matt Moore took over at QB for the injured Matt Moore last week but the Dolphins were facing a Jets team that was downtrodden after a tight loss to the Patriots the week before. Now Miami faces an angry Ravens team off of back to back losses. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS at home when they are off of back to back losses (both SU and ATS) and they're hosting a team with a winning percentage under .750 - that system is fully in play here. The Dolphins are on a 1-5 ATS run in games against the AFC North Division. 8* BALTIMORE |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles -4 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - The Eagles aren't getting very much respect here. Quick...name all the teams in the NFL with 1 loss or less...the answer is one word...Eagles. No one is undefeated as you know and Philadelphia is the last remaining 1 loss team even though 4 of their first 6 games have been on the road. The Eagles already beat the Redskins in their season opener in Washington and now they get them at home. Certainly I have plenty of respect for the Redskins, a quality division rival of Philadelphia. However, the Eagles went 5-1 last season when Lane Johnson was in the lineup. A top offensive tackle of the Eagles who was suspended for 10 games last season, Johnson makes a big difference when he is in there. Johnson has been dealing with a concussion but is listed as probable for this game and that's great news for Philly. Not only did they go 5-1 with him in the lineup last season they are already 5-1 this season and they know this game is huge in terms of creating significant gap at the top of the NFC East. The Redskins had owned the Eagles in recent seasons but Philly proved they already have turned the tables on this season with that win back in week 1. There is a certain "aura" around the Eagles that this is their year. They've played extremely well on both sides of the ball and are well rested here. Remember that Philly played on Thursday of last week in their impressive win over the Panthers. The Redskins are off of a Sunday game and did not impress in a rather tight win over the winless 49'ers. The Eagles are on a long-term 9-1 ATS run on MNF when they are off of a SU win. Also, under coach Doug Pederson, Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in home games where they are facing a team off of a SU win! That streak continued when they blasted Arizona two weeks ago here in Philly. The Redskins are a long-term 10-21 ATS in Monday night games and that includes 0-4 ATS in MNF the last 3 seasons combined. So we have a perfect 10-0 ATS spot favoring the Eagles in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-22-17 | Bengals +5 v. Steelers | Top | 14-29 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Golden Ticket - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The Steelers are off of their upset victory over the Chiefs at Kansas City last week while the Bengals were resting thanks to a bye week. I know Pittsburgh is known for being tough at home through the years but they've been an "up and down" team this season and have yet to cover 2 straight games. On the other side of the equation, the Bengals come into this game riding a 3-game ATS win streak and seeking revenge. Pittsburgh knocked Cincinnati out of the playoffs 2 years ago. Since then the Steelers also have won each of the last two regular season meetings. This is their first meeting this season however and the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Bengals also are on a 6-1 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. Specific to divisional road games, Cincy has covered 7 of their last 10. In the Steelers last 7 home games in regular season home games, they are just 2-5 ATS. Look for the Bengals momentum to continue here as, whether or not they get the upset and get their revenge, I do expect them to make it 4 in a row ATS with another cover here. 10* CINCINNATI |
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10-22-17 | Saints -3.5 v. Packers | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (-) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - There is a good chance of rain at this game but the winds are not expected to be significant and the rain is expected to just be light showers rather than heavy rain. That is significant here because with the Saints having Drew Brees and the Packers being without Aaron Rodgers, New Orleans holds a huge edge in terms of offensive potency in this one! Green Bay QB Brett Hundley had a 1-3 ratio last week and the Packers offense totaled only 227 yards last week. Surprisingly, even when Rodgers has been playing for Green Bay, the Packers offense has struggled overall this season. The Pack ranks 21st in the league on offense while New Orleans ranks 7th. The Saints defense also has come on strong and have forced 9 turnovers their last 3 games. I know that New Orleans gave up big points to Detroit last week but much of that happened after they had built up a huge lead and then "let up" in the game. Green Bay is looking ahead to their bye week and a chance to get healthy and to do a little more with their QB situation. As for the Saints, they're looking to 4 straight wins and I feel they will do just that and make it 4 straight covers also! New Orleans is 10-1 ATS when they are on the road after scoring more than 40 points. The Saints are also 9-0 ATS when facing an NFC opponent with a winning percentage above .666 as is the case with the 4-2 Packers. New Orleans is also 5-0 ATS in road games against NFC North teams. The Packers are 0-6 ATS when off a SU loss by a double digit margin in divisional action (Vikings last week) and now facing a non-divisional opponent in the current week. That means the Saints are supported by systems that are a combined 30-1 ATS including a triple perfect 20-0 ATS when combining those 3 perfect ATS stats! I'll take it! 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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10-21-17 | USC +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #401 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (+) @ Notre Dame @ 7:30 ET - The mystique of playing at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, IN causes a lot of shading of the line toward the Fighting Irish in home games. That is the case here and, simply put, it has resulted in phenomenal value for the better team. Southern Cal is on a mission to be a playoff team representing the Pac-12 Conference this season. The Trojans know they can ill afford another loss and they also have revenge against the Irish. Yes, USC did defeat them last year (rather handily too!) but they still remember the loss 2 years ago in South Bend where Notre Dame got the better of them despite the Trojans outgaining them by more than a football field! The Irish have not played an easy schedule, not at all, but Southern Cal's schedule has been even tougher. That strength of schedule edge for USC will come to the forefront here because Notre Dame also is fortunate to be 5-1 as they were outgained (again by more than a full football field) when they won at Michigan State earlier this season. 3 Spartans turnovers keyed that victory for the Irish. Give them credit of course but Notre Dame now faces a USC teams that is throwing for nearly 300 yards per game while the Fighting Irish are barely throwing for half that per game. Yes, ND does run the ball well but USC has been very tough against the run with just 118.8 rushing yards allowed per game the last 5 games. When Notre Dame is a favorite off of back to back wins (both victories SU and ATS) with the most recent win coming by a double digit margin, they've gone just 2-9 ATS! Look for Southern Cal to improve to 7-3 ATS in road games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 10* USC |
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10-21-17 | Louisville v. Florida State -6 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #398 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ Noon ET - Both teams are having tough seasons but Florida State has played the toughest schedule in the nation this year. The Cardinals defense has been awful this season. Taking a look at their last 5 games Louisville, of course, had an easy time with over-matched opponents like Kent State and Murray State. But, in their other 3 games, the Cards allowed an average of 562.7 yards per game! Compare that to a Seminoles defense that has had no cupcakes and yet is allowing only 330.6 yards per game on the season. FSU also has revenge from last season's embarrassing 63-20 loss at Louisville. The Noles get payback today and the drop in this line has opened up solid line value for us. I'll take it! Also, Louisville is 0-5 ATS when they are an underdog in conference play and coming off of a game where they allowed 35 points or more. After losing 45-42 at home versus Boston College last week, that perfect angle is in play here. Overall, the Cardinals are on a 3-14 ATS run dating back to last season and, though the Seminoles have been struggling at the betting window, the strength of opposition they have faced has had a lot to do with that. Look for last week's win at Duke to be a sign of things to come for the Noles. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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10-20-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State +3 | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass Friday - Rickenbach CFB 8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Blue Raiders starting QB Brent Stockstill is doubtful for tonight's game but sophomore QB John Urzua now has filled in quite well and this would be his 6th straight game. The key for Urzua is minimizing turnovers and he has been much better about that on the home compared to on the road. Look for another big game from him here at home where he has 3 TDs against just 1 INT plus Urzua has completed 49 of 63 (78%) at home! Overall he has thrown for 292 yards per game in his last 4 games and I like the fact that the Middle Tennessee has played a tougher schedule thus far in comparison with Marshall. Though the Thundering Herd are 2-0 in conference action they've faced Old Dominion and Charlotte - teams that are a combined 2-11 on the season! The teams that MTSU has faced are a combined 6-2 in conference action and none of the 3 teams has a losing record. Also, the Blue Raiders won their lone home game in CUSA action thus far and they won it by 20 points! Middle Tennessee plays this game with revenge after losing badly at Marshall last season due to a 4-0 turnover deficit! The host is a perfect 4-0 ATS all time in this series and I look for the Blue Raiders to make that 5-0 tonight! 8* MIDDLE TENNESSEEÂ |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - The Chiefs magical luck on the field and at the betting window continues. Not only is Kansas City the only undefeated team this season - 5-0 SU mark - they also are the only 5-0 ATS team as well. Of course they deserve credit for achieving this mark but taking a look back at their games raises some interesting doubt. They rallied late at New England (deceiving final score) and KC then had to rally again versus the Eagles (Philadelphia looked like the better team for much of that game). Kansas City then beat a Chargers team that is only 1-4 on the season and that preceded the absolutely ridiculous miracle cover versus the Redskins (another game where Chiefs opponent looked like the better team for much of the game). Now, after a win at Houston (but allowing 34 points), I expect Kansas City's luck has run out. They're running into an angry Steelers team that is off of an embarrassing home loss to Jacksonville. Even though Pittsburgh's win at KC in the post-season gives the Chiefs revenge in this spot, the Steelers are so "ticked off" right now that they will be the team showing much more "fight" in this game. Also, that win at Kansas City only game by 2 points for the Steelers but they significantly ougained the Chiefs in that game. In fact, the Steelers have outgained KC by an average of 120 yards per game in the last two meetings. More of the same here. The AFC North is known for tough, physical football and the Chiefs can't hang. Look for them to drop to 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC North. I love having the substantial points here and the Steelers are a long-term 74-53 ATS as an underdog. Pittsburgh entered this season 10-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points when facing an opponent on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Steelers are 5-0 ATS as dogs when facing a team with a winning record that is playing against them with revenge! Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS when they are home off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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10-15-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Jaguars | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:05 ET - The Jaguars are off of their huge win at Pittsburgh last week. Jacksonville has yet to win back to back games this season and I don't expect that to change here. The Rams are hungry after their tough home loss versus the Seahawks last week. Los Angeles is a very improved football team this year as they actually outgained Seattle by over 130 yards in the 16-10 loss but they were done in by turnovers. That has helped to create some line value here and I do expect the Rams to respond in a big way after last week's frustrating loss to the Hawks. LA is averaging 272 passing yards per game as Jared Goff has responded very well to all the coaching staff changes that took place for the Rams heading into this season. By comparison, Jacksonville's passing attack is averaging only 159.6 yards per game. I look for the aerial attack to be a key difference-maker in this game. Being a favorite is certainly not a good role for the Jags. They've gone 2-6 ATS (and SU!) as a fave and the Jaguars are also an ugly 1-7 ATS (and SU!) in their games against NFC opponents. Give me the hungry road dog off of a loss as I expect Jacksonville gets caught still celebrating their huge win at Pittsburgh! 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-15-17 | Lions +4.5 v. Saints | 38-52 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Saints are getting accolades for their defensive turnaround in their past two games but I am not sold on them just yet. Yes they had the good performance versus the Panthers 3 weeks ago but that was largely a victory fueled by 3 Carolina turnovers. Note that in their other 3 games, New Orleans has only forced 1 turnover! Also, the fact the Saints shut down the Dolphins two weeks ago could certainly have an asterisk by it for two reasons. One, strange things happen in those games played in London - Ravens completely annihilated by Jaguars there earlier this season! Secondly, the Dolphins are absolutely the worst offense in the NFL. The point is that the Saints face a major challenge this week with Matthew Stafford and company coming to town. The Lions, of course, are use to playing in a dome and they won here both last season and the prior season as well. Detroit will be very hungry here as they fell just short of the comeback win versus Carolina last week. In road games with a posted total of 49.5 or more, the Lions are on a perfect 4-0 ATS (and SU!) run. The Saints are 0-2 ATS (and SU!) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. That makes this a "double perfect" spot to back the Lions and that's precisely what I am doing. The Saints are off of their bye week but the Lions have their bye week on deck and are coming off of a loss. They'll be hungry to get back on the winning track prior to their bye. 8* DETROIT |
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10-15-17 | Akron v. Western Michigan -12 | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Sunday Special - Rickenbach CFB 8* Western Michigan Broncos (-) vs Akron Zips @ 1 ET - The weather is a key to this play. While the rain that forced the postponement of this game from Saturday to Sunday has mostly ended, the key weather element today is the wind. It will be very windy with gusts up to 40 mph. This is going to force these teams to rely on the rushing attack and that is where the Broncos have a huge edge. Western Michigan's weakness on defense has been the passing attack but the Zips can't exploit that, especially with today's weather. However, as for the ground game, the Broncos have allowed only 68 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games while their own offense has run for an average of 302 yards per game! Western Michigan is ultra talented in the backfield with 3 tailbacks that all can create havoc for opposing defenses. The Zips are off of a big win but they faced a Ball State without their starting QB. I know the Broncos are off of a 7 OT win versus Buffalo but the fact they did hang on for the win PLUS now got an extra day of rest thanks to Mother Nature AND they're at home here means that we've got a solid "play on" situation here. The Broncos battles with USC and Michigan State early this season really helped set the tone for them and they've now won 4 straight games and their 3 home games this season have all been wins by an average margin of 32 points per game. By the way, Western Michigan also beat the Zips by a count of 41-0 last season. Akron is on a 3-12 ATS run as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points and are facing a team that is off of 2 or more consecutive SU wins. 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-14-17 | Utah v. USC -13 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #174 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET - The Trojans have underachieved so far this season but they're getting a little healthier now and the odds makers set this line "big" even though USC is on an 0-4 ATS run because they know what they're doing! Southern Cal is set to blast Utah here as the Utes are definitely not the same team without QB Tyler Huntley and he is listed as doubtful for this game. Utah is off of a home loss to Stanford and the Cardinal aren't the powerhouse they once were so that says a lot right there. The Utes could be suffering from unbeaten letdown here. Also, USC has revenge from a 31-27 loss at Utah last year. Southern Cal is 3-0 both SU and ATS the last 3 times they've hosted the Utes. Also, USC has played a MUCH tougher schedule this season than the Utes have. Look for battle tested Southern Cal to be ready to blast Utah in this one. The markets and the public will be fooled here because they're not properly factoring in the QB situation for Utah (having to turn to Williams) and the fact that Utah has played the much easier schedule and now faces a tremendous road test here against a revenge-seeking Trojans team that also plans to make a "statement" in this game. 10* USC |
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10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse +24 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Syracuse Orange (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7 ET - With QB Kelly Bryant now listed as probable for this game, the line has jumped to as high as 24 as of early gameday morning. Keep in mind, the last thing the Tigers want to do is risk further injury to their starting QB in a game which they should win comfortably. In other words, I am looking for Clemson to win this game by about 10 to 17 points but that's it. They will look to coast to victory once they get up by a decent margin and Syracuse certainly has the potential for a backdoor cover too (if needed). The Orange offense has averaged 468.8 yards per game this season. Syracuse is also known for being much tougher to play against when they are at home. As a perfect example of that, the Orange got blown out 54-0 last year at Clemson but they only lost by 10 points the prior year when they faced them in Syracuse. I also like the fact that the Tigers have a bye on deck here. They could end up being a little too "relaxed" for this one as Clemson is 6-0 on the season and playing for a 7th straight week and certainly they are looking ahead to enjoying a much-needed week off. It could result in this game being much closer than many are expecting as Syracuse is averaging 32 points a game this season. Clemson is on a 2-4 ATS run as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. The Orange are on a 5-2 ATS run as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. Also, the Orange have gone 8-4 ATS their last 12 games versus teams with a winning record and that includes a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. 8* SYRACUSE |
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10-12-17 | Eagles +3.5 v. Panthers | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:25 ET - Even though Panthers are 4-1 on the season, they are 2-1 in the last 3 games and those 2 losses each came by just a field goal. Getting the Eagles at +3.5 is certainly a great value here as the Panthers only blowout win this season came against a 49'ers team that is still winless on the season. The Panthers other win saw them score just 9 points versus Buffalo. Although the Eagles are expected to be without offensive tackle Lane Johnson in this one, his back-up is Halapoulivaati Vaitai and he has plenty of experience. Also, Philadelphia will look to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that is a bit banged up right now. Keep in mind the Eagles offense averages 397.8 yards per game which is behind only the Patriots and Chiefs this season! That's pretty good company to keep and Philly is averaging 27.4 points per game this season whereas the Panthers have scored a TOTAL of only 22 points in their two home games this year! Also, the road team has won 4 of the 5 Thursday games this season and while the Panthers were in Detroit Sunday the Eagles enjoyed a home game Sunday versus Arizona. The Panthers are 2-6 ATS all time in Thursday games. Even though this line is currently 3.5, it is still worth noting that the Eagles are 13-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 4 points when they are playing with revenge against an NFC team. It shows you that Philadelphia does play well in scenarios like this and the Eagles lost in their last visit here in October of 2015 and I am expecting payback tonight. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
MNF Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Monday NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - The Bears have been very strong on defense this season. Chicago is allowing only 306.2 yards per game. Their biggest problem has been turnovers by the offense. That is why the switch to rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky certainly doesn't cause me concern. It actually does give the Bears a better chance to win because QB Mike Glennon had been a turnover machine for Chicago. Although Sam Bradford is likely to be back at QB for the Vikings here, his knee is not 100% and the Bears defense is very aggressive and likely to cause some problems for an inconsistent Minnesota offensive attack. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between the teams and the one loss by a home team in the last 4 meetings came by just 3 points. In this spot we're getting more points than that with the home dog Bears and I like our chances. Chicago is actually 7-0 ATS in home games with a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in a road game with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. The Bears had the Thursday game last week so they've had extra time to prepare Trubisky for this game and get him ready working with the other starters on the offense as they prepare for this critical divisional match-up. The Bears have revenge from a 38-10 beating at Minnesota in the last meeting with the Vikes. That is significant here as Chicago is off of a blowout loss at Green Bay (due to turnovers) and the Bears are 11-2 ATS when they are at home and playing with revenge and coming off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin! The Vikings, in divisional games, are 1-7 as road favorites when they are off a loss (both SU and ATS). The Vikes were favored last week and they lost outright to Detroit. That is noteworthy here as Minnesota is 0-10 ATS when they are road favorites and coming off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, the Vikings are 0-6 ATS on the road in Monday night games. As you see, there are plenty of ATS stats that support playing on Chicago and playing against Minnesota. Just adding up the perfect ones (1 in support of the Bears and 2 going against the Vikes) and you have a 23-0 ATS spot tonight that favors the Bears. I'll take it! 8* CHICAGO |
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10-08-17 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Eagles | 7-34 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The Eagles defense is still quite banged up and they have a short turnaround ahead as they travel to Carolina for a Thursday night game this coming week. Philadelphia has given up 354 passing yards per game in their past two weeks. That spells trouble against an Arizona team that has thrown for an average of 302 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks! On the flip-side, the Cardinals have allowed an average of only 191 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks. The Eagles are 3-1 on the season but, in Week 1, they didn't pull comfortably away from the Redskins until very late. Since then the Eagles have gone 2-1 but the two victories each came by no more that a field goal margin. The point is that Philadelphia is going to again have their hands full this week as nothing has come easy for them this season. Should the Eagles prevail I look for it to again be by 3 points or less. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS on the season but they are certainly one of the best win-less ATS teams that have seen at this point in a season and we are getting extra line value as a result. I'll take it. The past two seasons the Eagles have gone 1-3 (both SU and ATS) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. Philadelphia is also 0-4 ATS their last 4 against NFC West opponents. Arizona is 11-1 ATS when on the road against a non-divisional opponent with a winning percentage greater than .700 and the Eagles currently sit at .750 on the young season. Combining these "play on" and "play against" factors and you have an 18-2 (90%) ATS spot in favor of the Cardinals. 8* ARIZONA |
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10-07-17 | Southern Miss +13 v. UTSA | Top | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Insider Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #351 Saturday 10* Top Play Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET - This game is being played in my backyard as I live in the San Antonio area. As a matter of fact my 4-year university degree is from UTSA and I follow the Roadrunners closely. This is the perfect spot to fade them. They are 3-0 this season but truly are over-hyped at this point. They've played a super easy schedule as the 3 teams they have beaten are a combined 2-11 on the season. Also, the Runners are the most penalized team in the nation as they've averaged 103 penalty yards per game! That is going to eventually catch up with them in a close game and that is precisely what I am expecting here. UTSA is facing a revenge-minded conference foe as Southern Miss got embarrassed in their last game here (last October). The Golden Eagles lost by 23 even though they held a 31-17 edge in first downs! Needless to say it was a "fluke" final score and payback is on order here. The Southern Miss running back, Ito Smith, is one of the best backs in the conference. Their wide receivers, Allenzae Staggers and Korey Robertson, are both 6'1 and very athletic and will create some match-up problems for the UTSA secondary. The Golden Eagles have had this game circled and they were 3-0 ATS on the season before last week's embarrassing home loss to North Texas. That loss to the Mean Green helped to create additional line value here as well. UTSA does have North Texas on deck and they are 0-4 ATS the week before facing the Mean Green. Also, the Roadrunners entered this season just 1-5 ATS when they are a favorite of more than 6 points against an opponent seeking revenge. That is the case here and the Golden Eagles are going to give them all they can handle in this one which makes the big points very generous. 10* SOUTHERN MISS |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia +13 v. TCU | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #387 Saturday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - Oftentimes, when a team is rolling, the last thing they need is a break but they don't have a choice. That is the case here with a TCU team that is off to a 4-0 start this season but then had a bye week last week. Note that last season the Horned Frogs went 0-2 ATS when coming off of a bye. Another factor against TCU here is that they've been winning even though they're giving up huge yardage. The Horned Frogs allowed at least 463 yards in each of their last two games and yet managed to win each by an average of 16.5 points. In their final game before the bye they were actually outgained at Oklahoma State but managed to win by 13 thanks to 4 Cowboys turnovers. All of this has created line value here because, while TCU certainly should win this game, they are over-priced. West Virginia's defense certainly hasn't been impressive either but they're not the team laying nearly two touchdowns here! That said, it is the Mountaineers offense that will keep them in this game. As noted above, the Horned Frogs have been giving up some big yardage but have been taking advantage of turnovers. West Virginia has had 0 or 1 turnover in 3 of their 4 games and another solid effort from a Mountaineers offense that is averaging 596 yards of offense per game is going to keep pressure on TCU all game long. West Virginia's only loss this season was the opener against Virginia Tech but the Mountaineers did outgain the Hokies by 123 yards in that game! TCU is on a 6-16 ATS run as a favorite and the Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. As you can see, TCU hasn't fared well in home games expected to be shootouts and this one certainly fits that description! I am expecting this play against situation that favors the Mountaineers to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS! 8* WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-05-17 | Patriots -5 v. Bucs | 19-14 | Push | 0 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* New England Patriots (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:25 ET - As I had mentioned prior to this season, the Patriots were one of my teams to generally fade this season as they had such ridiculous ATS success last season. That included burning me in the Super Bowl in that miracle comeback and cover versus the Falcons. In any event, indeed the Pats have been a team to fade this season and they've gone just 1-3 ATS thus far. However, their lone cover came after their first SU loss and I expect New England to again respond off of a loss here with a cover. The Patriots have played a much tougher schedule thus far in comparison with the Buccaneers. Also, Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 4 times this season and they have not forced any turnovers in their past two games. New England has turned the ball over only once this entire season and the Pats have forced 4 turnovers in their past two games. Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU and ATS in Thursday games. The Patriots, in weeks 5 through 9, are on a 9-0 SU run and 7-1-1 ATS. 8* NEW ENGLAND |
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10-02-17 | Redskins +7 v. Chiefs | 20-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass Monday - Rickenbach NFL 8* Washington Redskins (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 PM ET - It so hard to win in the NFL week in and week out and, with the Falcons getting upset at home by the Bills Sunday, the lone remaining undefeated team is the Chiefs. Now certainly Kansas City has played good football this season but they're also over-rated in my opinion. Last week against the Chargers they were certainly helped by 3 Los Angeles turnovers. The fact is that the Chiefs were outgained by the Chargers in that game and the 14 point win for KC certainly fits the bill as a deceiving final. When factor that along with the fact that Kansas City truly pulled away late in each of their first two wins (at New England and versus Philadelphia) and you have the perfect recipe of an over-priced, over-rated team. The Chiefs scoring defense ranks high but their defense based on yardage ranks them near the bottom of the league and that right there tells you a lot. The Redskins defense (based on yardage) actually ranks near the top of the league and comparing these two offenses (based on yards per game) shows the Chiefs ranked only slightly higher. The point is we're getting fantastic value here with a Redskins team that is quite talented and you know Washington is going to "bring it" on a national TV Monday night game. By the way, the Skins also have an edge over the Chiefs in pass protection with KC ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed. I also like the fact that the Redskins completely obliterated the Raiders last week and now have a bye week on deck! They are loaded with confidence and definitely read to go after undefeated Kansas City here. Redskins are a long-term 43-24 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Chiefs are on a 6-11 ATS run in home games. An outright upset wouldn't surprise here but certainly I am grabbing the generous points. The Chiefs are over-rated at this point in the season and, while the Redskins have a bye on deck, KC has a tough match-up with red hot Deshaun Watson in Houston next week! 8* WASHINGTON |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:30 ET - Normally I don't lay this many points but this is not a "normal" situation and I do expect the Seahawks to roll easily in this one! I know Seattle is 0-3 ATS on the season but they've played a much tougher schedule than the Colts have. Also, Indianapolis is, of course, still without Andrew Luck at QB. They're going to struggle to move the ball at Seattle - arguably the toughest place for visitors in the NFL The 49'ers were held to 312 yards when they played here in Week 2 and, back in Week 1, the Seahawks defense also was strong on the road as they held a solid Packers team to just 225 yards of offense. Of course the Seattle defense will be dialed here as they are off of that frustrating loss at Tennessee last week. As for the Colts defense, they've given up an average of 283.7 passing yards per game this season and their ground defense has been betting bashed the past two weeks. More of the same here and that turns this one into a rout. The Seahawks have won 7 of their last 9 games against AFC foes and they've only lost 2 times ATS in those 9 games. 8* SEATTLE |
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