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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Value with the points here. First divisional game for each of these teams and it is an early-season battle for first place in the NFC Least as I like to call it! Both of these teams have looked a little better than expected early this season but like the fact that, though both teams went 1-5 ATS in divisional games last season, the Cowboys are laying 3 plus the hook here and they went an ugly 1-6 ATS as a favorite last season. Philadelphia has been the better team defensively early this season and I also like the fact that they have been running the ball well early this season. When you have a road team that can establish the ground game on offense plus play very strong on the other side of the ball, you have a good shot at a road dog cover if not upset win. Also note that Dallas is 2-0 ATS this season but look around the league after yesterday's results and you can see how rare it is for teams to be perfect 3-0 ATS after 3 weeks. In other words the odds a bit stacked against the Cowboys here and I do like the fact that the road teams are a perfect 2-0 ATS this season in both Eagles games and Dallas games. Those trends continue here and the road dog relies on solid defensive play as well as a strong ground game on offense to grind out the win (at least ATS win) in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA +3.5 |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers burned their backers when they let the Lions get a miracle backdoor cover in Week 1. Green Bay then burned Lions backers last week with a big 2nd half to get the money. Still the Packers were outgained by Detroit in that game and also looked very ugly in their season-opening 38 to 3 loss to the Saints. The point is that I still do not think things are as they should be in Green Bay just yet and we are getting a lot of line value here as a result. The Niners got embarrassed by the Packers when these teams met last season but this is much more than a revenge spot for San Francisco. It is also their home opener and they get Green Bay on a short week as they are coming off a Monday night win versus Detroit. If you look at the Packers statistically it is quite ugly. As for the Niners stats a lot of the yardage allowed to the Lions was in garbage time of what was otherwise a blowout win. Then last week SF battled hard for a win over a resilient Eagles team that is playing solid defense early this season. I feel we have excellent line value with the home team now dropping to a -3 here after being as high as a -4 in early trading action earlier this week. Keep in mind the public still remembers the 6-10 SF team of last season and the 4-12 team that preceded the 49ers big season in 2019. As for the public's viewpoint on the Packers all they can remember is the 13-3 records of the past two seasons but that Aaron Rodgers holdout situation has effected the team chemistry of this team and last week's win was not reflective of how the game should have played out - just look at the stats - and again this was the same Lions team that the Niners really destroyed in week one before letting them in for a miracle backdoor cover. Tremendous line value here. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-26-21 | Bears +7.5 v. Browns | 6-26 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Chicago Bears +7.5 @ Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - Bears 24, Rams 18. Final score? No those were the first downs in a very deceiving 34-14 loss at the hands of LA in week 1. This Chicago defense is underrated right now and they will be up for the challenge at Cleveland. The Browns offense has looked great early this season but they faced a Chiefs team that has not looked good at all on defense yet this season plus a Texans team that looks like a complete mess and is just fortunate they played Jacksonville in week 1 so they at least have 1 victory early this season. Houston has been horrible in their other two games. I think the Bengals are better than people realize and that is why they are only a 3-point dog at Pittsburgh this week. The point is that Chicago just beat the Bengals and that was with a horrible performance on offense. Now Fields is the starter after QB Dalton got hurt last week. That said, he'll be better after a full week of practice with the offense and after getting his feet wet in game action last week. Browns might win this game but I don't see them winning by more than 1 score and like having 7 plus the hook in this one! Like having the better defense in this one and expect complete effort as Bears make up for the 20-point thrashing at Los Angeles which everyone remembers but was a deceiving final! 8* CHICAGO +7.5 |
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09-26-21 | Bengals +3 v. Steelers | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and this has been particularly beneficial to my long-term success in the NFL. This line is saying that the Bengals are equal to the Steelers because Pittsburgh is favored by just 3 on their home field. So think about that for a minute and think about how the public is going to view this game. Of course the public is going to be all over the Steelers which means, of course, you should be on on the Bengals. When something looks too good to be true it usually is and this is particularly true in the NFL. Nothing is 100 percent of course but I love the odds in cases like this as usually the public loses. Think about it again. This line is saying these two teams would be equal on a neutral field. The Bengals are 6-25-1 the last two seasons. The Steelers are 29-18-1 the last three seasons. Statistically the Bengals have been the much better defense. Pittsburgh was lucky (look at the stats!) when they won at Buffalo in week one. That showed up last week when, at home and catching the Raiders in a letdown spot, the Steelers watched Vegas trounce them on their own field. This game priced this way with good reason. Grab the points. 8* CINCINNATI +3 |
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09-26-21 | Chargers v. Chiefs -7 | 30-24 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 1 ET - I do not like to lay many points in NFL games so when I am willing to lay 7 the situation has to be very strong and that is the case here! The Chargers are 1-1 to start the season and they played two teams from the division I refer to as the NFC Least! Facing Dallas and Washington is a lot different from facing a Chiefs team that is annually a Super Bowl threat and that, for this one, is at home and coming off a loss. I look for this game to be blowout city. I know KC is 0-2 ATS and failed to cover their home opener but their defense is normally much better when at home and I look for them to bounce back here. As for the offense, the Chiefs are averaging 34 points a game and will roll to a blowout win here over a team that is a bit over-rated early this season in my opinion. 8* KANSAS CITY -7 |
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09-25-21 | Oregon State v. USC -10.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans -10.5 - The Trojans lost their most recent home game to Stanford and it got their head coach fired. Still shell-shocked from that, USC traveled to Washington State and spotted the Cougars a 14-0 lead. Their response? Southern Cal, let by interim coach Donte Williams, rattled off 45 straight points in the huge 45-14 win! That was against the same Cougars team that won at Oregon State by double digits last season and that was the only win Washington State had in their shortened 4-game season. The point is that the Beavers are not a great football program. They have gotten a little better but still they particularly are lacking on defense and I expect USC to have a huge day on offense as they are rolling with confidence after how last week's game played out. The Trojans have won 23 straight games at Memorial Coliseum when hosting the Beavers. That said, of course we still must cover the spread here but I love the fact that the line has dropped from 13 to near 10 now and QB Kedon Slovis is back for the Trojans here and pronounced 100% ready to go after dealing with a neck injury. Southern Cal just has too much talent and too many weapons at the skill positions for Oregon State to be able to keep up in this one. Yes the Beavers are off to a 1-2 start but they lost their only challenging game (at Purdue) and the Trojans have played the tougher schedule. Also, USC is hell bent on making up for their embarrassing home loss in their last game here so I look for the Trojans to keep their foot on the gas throughout this game and win by at least a 3 TD margin! Lay the big points and look for a home blowout in this one. 10* USC -10.5 |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 9* TOP Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5 - Revenge game for LSU on the one hand as the Bulldogs beat the Tigers in Louisiana last season. However, lets not forget what happened the year before than when Mississippi State was the host and lost by 23 points despite the first downs in the game being equal. The point is that the Bulldogs have been reminded of that home loss beatdown heading into this game and I feel we have the stronger team at home and in a great spot. Mississippi State is off a loss at Memphis that never should have happened as they outgained those Tigers by more than 200 yards! Now they get a chance to dominate these Tigers and I do feel LSU is a little over-valued right now. The Bulldogs have played the tougher early season schedule and the Tigers are of back to back wins but against Central Michigan and McNeese State. In the only tough game LSU has had they lost to UCLA by double digits. Simply put, this is not the LSU teams of old and they are facing an up and coming Mississippi State team that has impressed early this season and won't make the same mistakes this week at home which they made last week on the road. 9* MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5 |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans +8 | Top | 24-9 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +8 vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - This is a typical contrarian play for me. Everyone will be high on the Panthers because they demolished the Saints last week. Everyone will be down on the Texans because they lost by double digits at Cleveland last week plus they lost their starting QB to injury. Give me Houston here! For one thing they are at home and they played very well in their first game of the season here. For another thing Carolina is on the road for the first time this season. Yes they have impressed so far this season but the Panthers faced a bad Jets team in week one and then caught the Saints off a big win over Green Bay. Lets not forget the Panthers lost 9 of last 11 games last season. Carolina also went 0-2 last season when off a win in which they allowed 13 points or less. Now here the Panthers are laying 8 points in that exact situation! Houston went only 2-4 in final 6 home games last season but 3 of the 4 losses were by 6 or less points. This means if you would have had Houston plus 8 in each of their last 7 regular season home games you would have gone 6-1 ATS. We have a lot of value here with the home dog and, keep in mind, their #2 QB played his college ball in the Pac-12. It is not as if this rookie QB, Davis Mills, has not faced some tough competition in his career. He'll be ready for the big stage here especially after getting some playing time last week and now this week he is at home for this start. Texans make this one helluva game and should cover the spread along the way. I look for this game to be decided by a one-score margin. 10* HOUSTON +8 |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State -7 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
CFB 10* Top Play Appalachian State Mountaineers -7 vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7:30 ET - Revenge game from last season as the Mountaineers lost 17-7 at Marshall despite having an edge in first downs in the game. Look for payback to be delivered here as Appalachian State has played the tougher early season schedule and also has been the stronger defense early this season. When the Mountaineers played East Carolina they dominated and the final score could have been even more dominant as the Pirates simply got some late meaningless scoring. That same East Carolina team just faced Marshall and the late scores were far from meaningless as the Pirates got the 42-38 upset win by rallying in the 4th quarter. The way each of these teams fared against East Carolina says a lot and I like the fact that Marshall just gave up 42 while the Mountaineers are allowing an average of only 19 points per game this season. Home team rolls here and wins this one by double digits. 10* APPALACHIAN STATE -7 |
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09-20-21 | Lions +12 v. Packers | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions +12 - I know that the Packers are generally strong at home and should bounce back here. But for Green Bay to respond and win this game by double digits is what I am doubting. The Packers have some issues. I am not sure how cohesive this group is ever since the Aaron Rodgers off-season saga. This team just looks a bit disjointed. Undoubtedly, talent-wise Green Bay is the better team in this match-up. However, the Lions gained confidence and showed a lot of character in battling back against San Francisco last week. Yes it was a fortunate ATS cover for Detroit but that does not change the fact that it gave new QB Jared Goff and this Lions offense some confidence heading into this week's match-up. Keep in mind Green Bay was turnover-prone last week and just overall it was an ugly performance against the Saints. That said, consider that New Orleans then went on the road yesterday and looked very bad against the Panthers. As for the Niners they went on the road and beat an Eagles team that is playing inspired football early this season. The point is Detroit's cover against San Francisco might be more impressive than first realized and Green Bay's demolishing at the hands of New Orleans might be even worse than originally thought. I would not be surprised to see these teams trade scores a bit and for the Lions to hang around throughout this contest. Look for a game decided by a margin of about 7 points which means we have great value with the big points offered here. 10* DETROIT +12 |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +4 - The Ravens are off a disappointing OT loss at Las Vegas on Monday Night. For all intents and purposes, their season is now over. I am being sarcastic of course but I am simply pointing out public perception here as this line has risen on the Chiefs from -2.5 point favorites to being as high as -4.5 point favorites. Keep in mind Kansas City went 14-2 SU last season but only covered 6 of the 16 games. There is a lot of value here in the home dog in this one. Baltimore is off a road loss and now back home and, keep in mind, they got the cash in 10 of their 16 games last season. KC, of course, is a great team but the public is so enamored with them that it often drives their lines too high. I strongly believe that will prove to be the case again here. Last year Mahomes outplayed Jackson and the Chiefs got a dominating road win at Baltimore last September. So everyone expects this game to be the same. The KC defense did not look good at all last week and gave up substantial yardage to the Browns both through the air and on the ground. Keep in mind, when a home dog can get their ground game going they are particularly dangerous. The Chiefs defense was at home last week and still did not look good. They are generally known for being tougher at home but that was not the case last week. That spells trouble as they now take to the road to face a Ravens team that is angry off a loss plus hell-bent on revenge from last season's home loss to these Chiefs. Keep in mind, Ravens were on a 6-0 ATS run prior to losing to the Raiders last week. Look for them to get back into the SU win column here but I will gladly grab the points as added insurance here as well. 10* BALTMORE +4 |
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09-19-21 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
NFL 8* Buffalo Bills -3 - The Bills lost at home to the Steelers but dominated statistically and were done in by a blocked punt returned for a Pittsburgh TD. Buffalo is much better than the scoreboard showed last week. The Dolphins are off a big divisional win at Foxboro last week but they were statistically dominated by the Patriots. In other words, these teams are off disparate results last week and that is helping to offer line value this week on the better team. Yes Buffalo is on the road but I am happy for that as this is keeping the line manageable. If this game was in upstate New York the line would be nearly double digits and I do not like to lay big points in the NFL. The Dolphins have lost 7 of last 8 versus the Bills and I expect that streak to continue here and look for the road favorites to pull away for big win as Miami gets caught still celebrating big upset win over New England last week. 8* BUFFALO -3 |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State -5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -5 - Not only has Penn State won at Wisconsin, the big win they had over Ball State means they did defeat the MAC Champions of a year ago quite handily. Granted Auburn is a very strong SEC team but this game is at Happy Valley where PSU is known for being a tough team to face. The Nittany Lions hold a key edge here too and that is the fact that the Tigers QB has struggled on the road. While the Auburn QB has solid overall numbers in his career, the positive production has come at home whereas on the road Bo Nix has thrown as many picks as touchdowns. It is no wonder the Tigers have had some road struggles during his time under center. Long term this Auburn team has only covered 32% of the time the last 25 times they have been a road dog. Look for Penn State to carry momentum from their strong start to the season right into this game. This is a night game at Beaver Stadium and the crowd will be roaring with the ESPN cameras on hand. The Nittany Lions defense returned the majority of key contributors from last season's team and I look for this D to make things very tough on Nix and the Tigers offense as his long-term road struggles continue. The line from a 7 down to a 5 is leading to solid line value here as well! 10* PENN STATE -5 |
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09-18-21 | Purdue +7.5 v. Notre Dame | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers +7.5 - I am not sold on this Notre Dame team. Not at all. They barely hung on to beat Florida State in their season opener. Keep in mind the Seminoles then lost to Jacksonville State last week so that Fighting Irish tight win over the Noles looks even more concerning right now. Then last week, even though at home, the Irish barely hung on to beat Toledo. While the Rockets are generally a respectable program, that is still a MAC team. Now ND renews an old rivalry with Purdue. Generally speaking, I like having the points in rivalry games if I feel the programs match-up quite well. In this case, I certainly like the fact that Notre Dame has been struggling to win games and the Boilermakers are off to a solid start. Yes the Boilers played a bad UConn team last week but they faced a respectable Oregon State team in their prior game. Boilermakers QB Jack Plummer has been playing very well and not making mistakes. This Irish team going to have trouble pulling away in this one and I look for it to go down to the wire. 8* PURDUE +7.5 |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville +7 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville +7 - The Cardinals lost to an Ole Miss team in week 1 that has certainly looked very sharp early this season. I feel we have great home dog value here as a result. Yes the Rebels proved very tough on the Louisville defense in week 1 but they were one of the best offenses in the nation last year. Yes the Knights are a fantastic offense too but the Cards were more competitive in week 1 than the final score showed. They had chances to put points on the board early and did not and the game got away from them after that. I don't see that happening again here. Central Florida is not the exact same powerhouse when they are on the road and this game is going to be a challenge for them. I would argue that Louisville has the better defense in this match-up plus the better special teams units overall and when you add that to home field edge plus getting about a full TD here as a dog I like my chances with the hosts here. Look for UCF to drop to 4-8 ATS that last dozen times they have been a road favorite. It has not shown up yet from an ATS standpoint but this Cardinals team is improved this season but flying under the radar due to an 0-2 ATS start. The result is line value in this spot. 10* LOUISVILLE +7 |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants +3.5 - Remember at the end of last season when the Eagles former head coach Doug Pederson seemingly surrendered the last game of the season when it was very important to the Giants playoff chances? That game did not directly involve New York but it did directly involve Washington and it ended up handing the NFC East title to the Football Team rather than the Giants. Soon New York will have their chance at payback over the Eagles but, first things first, the Giants get a shot at the team that took the NFC East title over them last year. I like New York's chances to get some payback here! Washington will have their #2 QB going here as Heinicke gets the start because Fitzpatrick going to be out some time now with a hip injury. He will probably miss 6 to 8 weeks and Heinicke is now the guy. Though he has shown some flashes of strong play he is still rather inexperienced at the NFL level and there is a reason coach Ron Rivera had selected Fitzpatrick as the starter of course. Look for the Giants defense to force some errors on Heinicke's part in this one. Both teams off losses last week but Washington was statistically dominated while the stats differential in the Giants game showed slimmer margins. I also like the fact that New York has won 5 straight games over Washington and look for that to reach 6 in a row here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5 |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
NCAAF 10* Top Play Louisiana -20 - The Bobcats are a mess as long-time veteran head coach Frank Solich stepping down over the summer really seemed to hurt this program. While Tim Albin already was with the program, the head coaching experience here is new to him and Ohio University has really struggled. After a season-opening home loss to Syracuse by a 20 point margin the Bobcats should have been ready to respond. The fact they then lost again at home, and this time to an FCS program, speaks volumes about the state of this team right now. Certainly I also know that UL Lafayette did not look good last week and were also facing an FCS opponent. However, the difference is that the Ragin' Cajuns came into this season as a ranked team and were off a demoralizing loss at Texas to open the season. Louisiana was still getting over that defeat when they barely edged Nicholls State last week. That said, I look for ULL to finally play a complete game here and they will not take their foot off the gas here. The Bobcats have been particularly bad on defense early this season and ULL will pound away all game long. Also, Ohio U only scored 9 points in their only game against an FBS school this season. The stats of the ULL game at Texas show that the Cajuns were not as bad as the final score shows. That being said, we truly have value here even with this big number. I expect the home team to win by 4 to 5 touchdowns in this one as the Bobcats continue to suffer some early season growing pains under Albin. 10* LOUISIANA -20 |
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09-13-21 | Ravens -4 v. Raiders | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play BALTIMORE -4 - Way back in May when the NFL schedules first came out, the Ravens were in the range of a full TD favorite. Now the line is down to a -4. I'll take it! Defense wins football games. Take a look at the results so far in Week 1 to gauge what I am telling you. The teams that allowed 16 points or less went 10-0. Only one of the wins was by less than a 4 point margin by the way. But what about teams that score real well. Surely they do perfectly well also, right? Actually you would be surprised. There were 5 teams that scored 21 points or more and still lost their games. Those 5 teams averaged 27.2 points per game. That is not a bad scoring average but, as you can see, it is still defense that wins the games. Now look at this match-up. The Ravens are known for having huge preseasons and then opening the new season with a week one win in blowout fashion and I do not see this game being any different. Baltimore was one of the best defenses in the league last season. Las Vegas was one of the worst. The Raiders made some moves in the off-season to address their poor D but it will take some time for the units to jell on that side of the ball. I love the fact that the Ravens are on the road here because we get a much more favorable line. At home they would be a double digit favorite. Instead, on the road and because the betting public is enamored with the Las Vegas team being at home and having a potent offense, we get a low line of only -4. This one should be an absolute rout as the Raiders may hang around for awhile but this Ravens team too strong on both sides of the ball and that eventually wears down Vegas as this game goes on and the road fave should pull away for a win by a double digit margin. 10* BALTIMORE -4 |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -7.5 - The Rams had the #1 defense in the NFL last season. The Bears and Rams had similar production on offense last season in terms of points per game but the Bears ranked 26th based on yardage while Los Angeles was 11th. Also, consider this key fact, Matthew Stafford is a gamer that played for a bad Lions team for years. The new Rams QB comes from Detroit where the Lions register double digits in losses year after year. Now he comes to LA where the Rams have averaged double digits in wins the last 3 years. Stafford could truly excel now on a much better team and this Bears defense is "okay" but still a little suspect in my mind. They are definitely not on the Rams level. That being said, you have the better defense and better offense and the much better overall team. Keep in mind Chicago is now going with Andy Dalton at QB. No disrespect to him as I have always felt he is a real gamer too but his best seasons are behind him. Coming to Chicago is not going to change his fortunes like Stafford going to the Rams will do. Dalton 30 tds and 22 ints last 2 seasons and one of those with a Cowboys team that had some talent. Look at Stafford's last 2 years, both with bad Lions teams, and he piled up a ton of yardage and threw for 45 td's against just 15 int's. This line is low as 7.5 which if you give the Rams say 3.5 points for home field edge that would mean the line is -4 on a neutral field. I feel, based on all the match-up edges here, LA is much better than 4 points in comparison with the Bears. I wish we could get -7 here of course but that won't happen but I am expecting the Chicago offense to struggle badly to score and that means Rams by 2 TDs in this one in my opinion so we still have great value here. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-12-21 | Seahawks v. Colts +3 | 28-16 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
NFL 8* Indianapolis Colts +3 - Generally speaking I like home dogs in the NFL. This is particularly true when that home dog is a well-coached solid football team. The Colts check all the boxes in that regard and I expect Carson Wentz, re-united with former Eagles OC Frank Reich (now HC of Colts) to enjoy solid success here. The thing is he is on a much better overall football team as the Eagles were trending the wrong way and have truly turned into a dysfunctional organization. If Wentz stays healthy, just watch what he does with the Colts long-term. Maybe he won't have his best game right out of the gate here but he does not have to have his A game here. The Colts are solid defensively and also can be strong with ground game and through the shorter passing attack. Definitely I have respect for the Seahawks but they have covered just 3 times in theirs last 14 road openers. Seattle was great at home last season but ATS but struggled on the road. In fact, if you took the home team in every Seahawks game last season you went 12-4 ATS with your bets! Statistically the Colts were the better team last season for overall offense, overall defense, and in terms of pass protection. I know Seattle ended up with the better record but you can see why I am seeing line value here especially with the line move. I'll grab the home dog that went from being a -3 in this match-up to a full 6-point swing the other way and they are now a 3-point dog. I'll take it! 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-11-21 | Washington v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* Top Play Michigan -6.5 - The Wolverines lost star WR Bell to a season-ending injury last week but the situation at WR for the Huskies is much much worse right now! When you look at who was expected to be the top 3 wide receivers on the depth chart all 3 are out right now! Of the 2nd teamers another guy is out as well right now. No wonder QB Dylan Morris threw 3 picks last week. How can the Huskies be in sync on offense when all the guys they thought they would be relying on to catch the ball are all out? Making matters worse, last week's game was a home game for Washington and was against an FCS school. Now they go on the road to the Big House and take on a Wolverines team hell-bent on having a better season this year. Michigan already pounded out a win over Western Michigan last week. Yes that is a MAC school but it was an impressive win nonetheless and these Wolverines are much more in sync right now on both sides of the ball than the Huskies are. Keep in mind, Washington played only 4 games last season and that was with a first year coach. Compare that to coach Jim Harbaugh, who love him or hate him, is now in his 7th season in his current tenure as Michigan's head coach and he is now 50-22 after last week's win. The retooled coaching staff under him has already implemented some positive changes for this season and I look for this very hungry team to "bring it" again on Saturday night and win this game by a margin of 2 to 3 touchdowns as the Huskies problems in the passing games are a major concern because they can not turn to the ground game for an alternative. Last week they were outgained 127 to 65 on the ground by Montana. The Wolverines only have Northern Illinois on deck so they were fully focused on this game as their toughest one in the first few contests of the season. That is bad news for Washington. This one gets ugly! 10* MICHIGAN -6.5 |
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09-11-21 | South Carolina v. East Carolina +2.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
8* East Carolina +2.5 - The Pirates opened up as a 2.5 point favorite here and have now swung around to being a 2.5 point dog. That is because they are facing a team from the might SEC. However, South Carolina is far from being a mighty team and just because they are in the SEC does not mean they go on the road and win this game. There are going to be struggles for the Gamecocks this season because they have a new head coach and new systems and they do not have much at the skill positions either. This East Carolina team is going to be much improved in their 3rd year under coach Houston. Pirates off 14-point loss but faced a respectable Appalachian State team on the road. The Gamecocks are off a 46-0 win, albeit against FCS opponent Eastern Illinois. The point is that the pubic is all over the SEC school in this match-up and you look at last week's results and it makes it seem the odds makers do not know what they are doing here. Long time followers know how I feel about that! A lot of respect for the odds makers and they had it right when they had the Pirates favored in this one. I am fading the line move and taking advantage of the line value. 8* EAST CAROLINA +2.5 |
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09-10-21 | Kansas +26.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 22-49 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
10* KANSAS +26.5 - I know the Jayhawks have been a horrible team but Lance Leopold is a great coach. Granted he got a late start with this team as he was hired later than most new coaches are hired coming into a season. However, he is still - especially with help of coaching staff he brought over from Buffalo - going to get more out of this team than his predecessors have been getting here. They did struggled to run the ball against an FCS foe last week but I like how the defense performed. I also like the fact that, even as bad as the Jayhawks have been the last two seasons, they won the yardage battle against Coastal Carolina last season and the yardage battle was nearly equal in the 12-7 loss the year before that. The point is that there is not such a great separation between these programs as you would be led to believe by the huge spread posted on this game. I look for the Jayhawks to still lose this game by a couple touchdowns but that still gives us some cushion with this line at nearly four touchdowns! This team is going to play hard for Leopold and his staff and last week's game against an FCS foe was a good chance for the team to work through some early season issues. No overnight miracles here with these Jayhawks but I expect a competitive effort here and feel the Chanticleers will also be content to turn to their ground game and just start running clock once they do have a big lead. 10* KANSAS +26.5 |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +8 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - As long-time followers know, being a contrarian is ingrained into my long-term handicapping skillsets. That said, there is no sport more so than NFL where being a contrarian is a huge key to long-term success. I have also talked before about the sharpness of odds makers and about trusting their numbers in plenty of situations. Odds makers are known for being particularly sharp in the NFL and this is one of those cases where I am putting particularly strong faith in their numbers. Roll back the calendar 7 months ago and just imagine if the Super Bowl was on a neutral field and imagine if it was possible for two NFC teams to square off for the title and it was the 5-11 Cowboys against the 11-5 Bucs. Now make a line. Would your line have been -3? Of course not! Yet take a look at this now in the opening game of 2021. I could be proven wrong but I don't think I will but this could be the biggest "trap line" set in a long time. I am not a believe that the odds makers set trap lines on purpose. I am just saying when something looks "off" it generally fools the public and it is the sharps that end up cashing in. So back to that -3. When lines first opened on this game, and keep in mind the Bucs have all 22 starters back, the first number was a -6 in mid-May. Since this game is being played in TB that line is telling you the Bucs would only be a 3-point favorite on a neutral field. So now, according to the betting masses, the books have it all wrong. This line has been bet up to as high as an 8.5 and the odds makers just do not know what their doing. I am saying they did know what they are doing and the Cowboys are going to be a much improved team this season. The Bucs are, of course, still the better team but I look for this game to be decided by just a single score. Note that last season Dallas was without Prescott for 11 games and it was a disaster season in Dallas. This team will be much improved in year two under coach McCarthy. As for the Bucs, look for them to get caught being a little too "fat and happy" after last year's glorious season where everything seemingly broke their way for a clear path to the SB title. The Cowboys will punch them in the mouth a bit in this game and it will be a lot more competitive than most people are thinking. Keep in mind Tampa Bay went just 4-3 their last 7 home games last season and one of the wins was by 7 points and, overall, only 5 of the Buccaneers final 12 games (including playoffs) leading into their Super Bowl victory was a win by more than 8 points. Just a lot of value after the line move with this one and the odds makers had it right in my opinion so we'll happily grab the value on the other side in typical NFL contrarian style. 10* DALLAS |
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09-06-21 | Louisville +10 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #225 Monday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (+) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 8 ET - I have plenty of respect for the coordinators for the Rebels but they could have their hands full without their head coach (Lane Kiffin covid) here and facing a Cardinals team that is on a mission for big improvement under head coach Scott Satterfield this season. The key about the Rebels is they have a very bad defense. The Cards are going to score points here. The other thing is that, is a good as that Ole Miss offense is, I expect the Rebels to get caught trying to do a little too much here. What I mean by that is mistakes offensively because, without Kiffin on the sidelines, the play-calling will not be quite the same. There will be pressure on offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to call a great gameplan here but will this hurt the rhythm of the offense? Keep in mind Rebels QB Matt Corral had some great numbers last season but if you look at their non-home games last season (this is a neutral site match-up) the Rebels went just 3-2 and two of the three wins were by 6 or less points with one of the wins in OT. Also, Corral threw 11 of his 14 interceptions on the season in two of those road games - at Arkansas and LSU. The road game that was an OT win was at Kentucky. The other tight win was the bowl game against Indiana. We all just saw the Hoosiers get smoked by Iowa Saturday. As for Arky, LSU, and Kentucky - none of the 3 teams had a winning record last season! I am not saying the Rebels will not win this game but I feel hanging onto any type of margin will prove difficult. The porous Ole Miss defense also gives the Cardinals great backdoor cover potential should we need it. Tremendous respect for the Rebels capabilities on offense but also note that Louisville had the #1 pass rated defense in the ACC last season and ranked 17th nationally as they allowed only 189.2 yards per game through the air. This game should be a battle all the way to the end. Grab the big points. 10* LOUISVILLE +10 |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
Money Line Marquee - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #224 Sunday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles Money Line +240 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET - No points needed here. We already saw a few upsets in Week 1 of CFB involving top 25 teams and we are going to see another one here in my opinion. This game is the chance to put Florida State back on the map in College Football. Why are they are only a TD underdog to a team that went 10-0 in the ACC regular season last year while the Seminoles went 2-6 in ACC action? Precisely! This Notre Dame team, of course, is still going to be a quality team this season. However, the Fighting Irish had so much turnover from last season's team. Particularly concerning are major losses on offense and they lost nearly their entire offensive line. That is bad news against a Seminoles defense hell-bent on playing much better this season. They added some key players through the transfer portal and this FSU defense is going to be much better this season. At home, with the nationally televised cameras rolling and being the only game on the big board, watch the Noles step up very big here and shock an over-rated Notre Dame team still living off last year's successes. This team is really a shell of its former self and is going to be knocked off right away here in game one. The Seminoles have a different look and different attitude coming into this season and have two quarterbacks available now with returning starter Jordan Travis and senior transfer McKenzie Milton both an option to start. ND has a new defensive coordinator who certainly comes in with a strong resume (was with Cincinnati!) but the loss of Clark Lea at DC and some key players on the defensive side of the ball that spearheaded the D before could certainly hurt. Keep in mind, in the first year under FSU head coach Mike Norvell, there were a lot of leftover players from the Fisher and Taggart days. A lot of those players, many unhappy, were dragging down the ship last season. Those guys are gone and there is a lot of strong talent happy to be here that is ready to step right in. I feel the Noles are going to surprise here in week one right away and Notre Dame lost more than half their starters from last year! Upset alert! 10* FLORIDA STATE +240 |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #213 Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -2.5 @ UCLA @ 8:30 ET - The Bruins have the edge of a game under their belt. Trouble is that game was against a Hawaii team that certainly did not look too good! This is the same UCLA team that only had 3 wins last season and the teams they beat went a combined 3-10 for the season. I still do not trust the Bruins QB against top tier competition. UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is going to have to prove to me that he can win a big game like this before I would hesitate to fade him. His Bruins just are not quite ready and this Tigers team comes into this game angry. Remember they just won the national championship but now are coming off a disappointing 5-5 season. Their defense was bad and they can not wait to make up for that. The process of the turnaround begins right here in Pasadena in Game One of the season and this highly talented SEC team goes on the road and makes a statement in their first game of the season. Love the fact that the line opened up in the -5 range over the summer but now is a -2.5 on gameday morning. We are getting great value here and keep in mind LSU projected to have a big bounce back season in a very tough SEC while the Bruins also play in a solid conference for sure but still UCLA nowhere close to the top tier programs like Oregon and USC in the Pac-12. Most of the rest of that conference nowhere close to SEC level and we have got great value with the Tigers here because everyone still remembering their disappointing campaign last season. 10* LSU -2.5 |
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09-04-21 | Temple +14.5 v. Rutgers | 14-61 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 3 m | Show | |
NOTE: Match-up now going EARLY Saturday instead of Thursday EVENING so the write-up below just slightly modified for the schedule change: Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #229 Saturday 8* Temple Owls (+) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ NOON ET - The Scarlet Knights were about an 11 point favorite when lines first were released on this match-up. Now Rutgers is favored by 14.5 points as of very early Friday morning. I am grabbing the points with Temple. Since 2014 (the last season Rutgers went to a bowl) the Scarlet Knights have only two wins over an FBS school by more than 11 points. Those two wins were over UMass in 2019 and Texas State in 2018. Annually those are two of the worst football programs in the country. Now I am well aware of the fact that the Owls are certainly not a football factory by any stretch of the imagination. However, Temple was one of the teams most hurt by the covid-19 restrictions last season and have a relatively new head coach compared to Greg Schiano who was beginning his 2nd stint with the Scarlet Knights after already spending a decade here through 2011. The Owls head coach is Rod Carey who was only in his 2nd season here at Temple after 7 years as head coach at Northern Illinois. The Owls have enough skill and athleticism on offense to keep this game closer than many are expecting. Temple is also strong enough in the trenches to go "punch for punch" with a physical Scarlet Knights team. This game will play out as a bit of a war and I really expect the Knights to struggle to pull away and expect this game to be decided by just a one score margin. Great value with this line moving past the +14 key number. 8* TEMPLE +14.5 |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -3 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #154 Friday 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 9 PM ET - The earliest numbers that came out on this game showed the oddsmakers set Northwestern as a 7.5 point favorite and the Cats now are all the way down to a -3 as of very early Friday morning. That means the betting markets are saying these teams are even on a neutral field and the Wildcats are essentially still getting the normal 3 points teams are often considered to have as a home field edge. I am not buying that. The Wildcats lost last season's game with the Spartans courtesy of 4 turnovers. It was their only loss of the regular season and is the first time in nearly a decade that they have lost back to back meetings with Michigan State. Northwestern will get some payback here. First off they are extremely well coached and have an excellent coaching staff put together. Secondly they are a system based team. They can not get the same talent that the bigger Big Ten schools are able to attract and bring in with their top recruits but it is their systems, smarts, hard work, and execution that make them a tough team. The problem with Michigan State (my pick to battle Rutgers for the worst spot in the Big Ten East) is that they have a head coach (Tucker) in his 3rd year overall as a head coach (2nd year with the Spartans) and he is trying to implement his systems but with many veteran players left over that were Dantonio recruits. The Spartans only other win last season, other than upsetting the Wildcats, was winning their annual biggest game of the year (versus rival Michigan). Other than that the Spartans had 5 losses and were outscored by a combined 202 to 70. Yes that works out to an average score of 40 to 14. I am not necessarily expecting that big of a margin here but this one will get ugly for Michigan State fans. The Spartans may get better as the season goes on but this team still trying to adjust to Tucker and his systems. 10* NORTHWESTERN -3 |
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09-01-21 | UAB -15 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
ESPN Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #907 Wednesday 10* Top Play UAB Blazers -15 vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - The Blazers are a strong CUSA team. The Gamecocks are a solid program but are an FCS team. This is a step up in class for them. Remember last year Jacksonville State faced Florida State and jumped out to a 14-0 lead partially benefitting from an INT return for a touchdown. The Seminoles, who only won two other games last season by the way, stormed back for a blowout win. This UAB team is rock solid on both sides of the ball and very strong in the trenches. The Blazers defense looks particularly solid this season. As for the strength along the O-line and D-line that is where UAB will get the keys to this victory. Jacksonville State does have a solid QB, he was formerly a back-up at Clemson, but if his teammates are getting beat everywhere else on the field there is not much he can do. UAB begins the season with 4 games away from home (this is a neutral site game) so I expect them to be fully focused here and am expecting them to wear down Jacksonville State as this game goes on. The Blazers can wear teams down on the ground and the Gamecocks might be able to hang around in the first half but eventually UAB is just too strong and has the big talent edge and will eventually pull away and win this game by 20+ in my opinion. 10* UAB Blazers -15 |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska -7 v. Illinois | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #299 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers -7 @ Illinois Illini @ 1 ET - Certainly Bret Bielema at head coach is an upgrade over Lovie Smith at head coach for Illinois. However, that improvement is going to take some time to show up on the field. It will not be overnight and this is simply not a very good football team. I am certainly not high on Nebraska either. But, as it stands right now, this Cornhuskers team is certainly superior to the Illini. Additionally, they are out for revenge from an embarrassing home loss to Illinois last season. I also love the way we have seen the line react on this game. It opened up at nearly double digits and yet has since dropped to as low as a 6.5 but then every time it gets down to 6.5 the Huskers get market attention and it goes right back to 7. So, as of overnight Friday heading into Saturday what I am telling you is as follows: The Huskers opened up as a big road favorite for a reason. The odds makers are not stupid. The line dropping to 6.5 from nearly 10 but then always getting bet back to 7 is an indication that many believe, just as I do that, that the Cornhuskers win this game by at least 7 points and I am expecting a win by a double digit margin. The Huskers and Illini return plenty of defensive starters. I know the Nebraska offense is not a strength, especially through the air, but lets go back to those defenses for a minute. The Illini return plenty of guys but allowed 35 points per game and ranked as one of the worst defenses in the nation for yardage allowed. As for the Huskers, other than the Illini debacle and getting destroyed (like most teams do) by Ohio State, they allowed only 24 points per game in their other 6 games and never allowed more than 27 in any of those other 6 games. Do not be surprised if the better defense prevails in a big way in this match-up. Even including the beatdown against Ohio State in their numbers, the Huskers defense ranked 50th nationally in yardage allowed out of 130 teams. The Illini did NOT face Ohio State last year and still ranked 115th nationally in yardage allowed. The Huskers have their problems, but they are the better overall team and they have not forgotten what happened last year in Lincoln either. There is no better way to avenge a home loss than by getting payback on enemy turf and returning the favor. I fully expect the Cornhuskers to get their revenge in Champaign on Saturday. 10* NEBRASKA -7 |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -107 | 79 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 6:30 ET - The irony here is incredible. The Chiefs are looking to become the first team to win back to back Super Bowls since the Tom Brady-led Patriots beat the Andy Reid-led Eagles back in 2004. This is Andy Reid's 3rd Super Bowl in his career and he finally gets his shot at Super Bowl revenge against Brady and, in getting a win here, would displace a Brady-led team in the record books as the most recent one to go back to back in the biggest game of them all in all of sports. I don't see Reid and the Chiefs being denied. This will be Reid's 32nd playoff game as a head coach and, as noted above, his 3rd Super Bowl. Tampa Bay is led by Bruce Arians and he is making his Super Bowl debut as a head coach and also entered this post-season 1-2 as a head coach in playoff action. I know this post-season has gone well for Arians and the Bucs but lets take a closer look. They faced a Redskins team without their starting QB and that didn't even belong in the playoffs really. Then they had a +4 turnover ratio against the Saints. Then they got outgained by the Packers in Green Bay but won the game thanks in part to horrible coaching on the part of GB. That will not happen here against Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Also, I love the fact that the Chiefs are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 games while the Buccaneers are on a 6-2 ATS run their last 8 games. Watch that flip in the final game of the year. Also, we certainly do not want a push but do note that 4 of the 5 Bucs losses came by 3 or more points while 15 of the Chiefs 16 wins have come by 3 or more points. This line was a 3.5 earlier but has come down to a solid -3 as of the Thursday before Super Bowl weekend. In other words, it is now "go time" for us. Time to pull the trigger. The fact the regular season meeting was only a 3 point win for the Chiefs despite a yardage edge of 114 is also helping to give us line value here. In what should be a very entertaining game, don't be surprised if coaching and special teams play a key factor in the final outcome and BOTH of those factors FAVOR the Chiefs in a big way here. 10* KANSAS CITY |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 13 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach NFL Rotation #314 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Buffalo Bills @ 6:40 ET – We are getting some line value here because of the Mahomes situation but honestly I expect the Chiefs to comfortably win this game even if Henne had to play the entire contest. But look for Mahomes to be back and just fine. As for the Bills, I do respect them but they have been living a charmed life. Teams that gained over 450 yards in a game and did not turn the ball over had been 11-0 all-time until the Colts did that to Buffalo in the Wild Card round and yet lost the game. Then Buffalo followed up that questionable win with another win. The Bills beat the Ravens thanks in large part to a 101 yard interception return for a TD that totally changed the game around. For the game, Buffalo was outgained 340 to 220 by Baltimore and yet still won. Again, charmed life so far for the Bills but now they face the defending Super Bowl champs off a non-covering win versus the Browns. That failed cover, despite a big half-time lead, has led to solid line value this week and the Chiefs at home are the play in this one. In their last 3 home games that matter (game versus Chargers was meaningless), KC allowed 17 points or less in each game. This is a Chiefs offense that averaged 33 points per game in their final 7 road games of the season. That is the sign of a powerhouse when you can score like that away from home and now the Chiefs are at home and off a frustrating offensive performance which is absolutely going to bring out the best in them today. I have not been as impressed with the Bills offense of late and that is why I see KC pulling away as this one goes on and I expect a win by a double digit margin and, at the very least, a TD margin for the home team. 10* KANSAS CITY |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #308 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 6:40 ET - there can be two theories as to why this line is dropping to a 2.5 on gameday morning, one would be that the Buccaneers are attracting some attention and primed for an upset, however the other theory is the one I am going with which I believe will prove true in this case, I believe the sharps are setting this one up by knocking it down a little to get that 2.5 everywhere and then they will pound it and we'll see this game at a -3 again before too long and certainly at kickoff, I could be wrong of course but we'll see and either way I like New Orleans a ton here, the Saints have owned the Buccaneers in recent meetings and also all the pressure is on Tom Brady and Tampa Bay here, that is because so much is expected of them and Brady wants to atone for a horrific performance the last time the Bucs were in TB, all that pressure is not going to help the Buccaneers and this is a team that went 1-4 in games against teams with a winning record this season, keep in mind TB lost to NO twice plus lost to KC and the Rams and another loss to a playoff team was to the Bears, though the Saints were not overly impressive last week the Bucs were arguably much worse, Tampa Bay should have annihilated Washington last week but struggled to put them away and I am just not sold on this TB team as they were facing a Washington team that had a ton of issues and question marks for that game, also the Saints defense has allowed 16 points or less in 7 of last 10 games while the Bucs have allowed 23 points or more in 8 of last 10 game, I will gladly lay the short home price here, 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs -9.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 3:05 ET - the Browns just blew out a division rival nemesis when they crushed the Steelers last week, that was a turnover fueled win for Cleveland, one has to give them credit for that win for sure but they face a much tougher test here, Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid and they are coming off a bye week, in his career Reid's teams have thrived off bye week as they have gone 20-9 ATS and have won 24 of the 29 games SU, undoubtedly the Chiefs will be ready to go and they are the healthier too, the Browns have issues impacting their secondary and their offensive line, those are two areas you particularly don't want to be struggling in when facing these defending Super Bowl champs, the Browns are allowing 30.4 points per game on the road this season while the Chiefs have allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 meaningful home games, in other words the season finale that didn't matter does not count in those numbers, in fact that also means that KC has effectively been off for a full two weeks in terms of bye weeks and they will really be ready here both physically and mentally, in the Browns last 5 games against playoff teams they have allowed 35.8 points per game, look for a home blowout here, 8* KANSAS CITY |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #303 Saturday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - The Colts last weekend were the first team ever to have over 450 yards of offense in a game with zero turnovers and still lose the game. Teams with those stats had been 11-0. In other words, the Bills got lucky...very lucky! Now their luck runs out this week. While I absolutely respect Buffalo QB Josh Allen and all this offense has done, there is simply no comparison between these defenses. The Ravens have the much better defense. Also, in terms of the Baltimore offense, a running QB like Lamar Jackson gives a defense like the Bills have absolute nightmares. The Bills have allowed 21 points or more in 6 of their last 8 home games. The Ravens have allowed 19 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. In fact, Baltimore allowed an average of 13 points in those 6 games. Buffalo allowed an average of 27 points per game in those aforementioned 6 home games. I know the full season numbers make the defenses look comparable but I feel strongly they are not. Also, the Ravens had to battle with the Steelers and the Browns in their division while the Bills took advantage of a weaker division. Of course the Jets were garbage, the Patriots ended with a losing record, and the Dolphins (despite a winning record) were pretenders whose full season stats told the full story. Off the fortunate win last week, Buffalo's luck runs out this week and the Ravens advance to the AFC Championship Game. 10* BALTIMORE |
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01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | 18-32 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Saturday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:35 ET - Jared Goff has had a little more time to heal his thumb. The Rams also have their run game going strong. Additionally, you are talking about what might be the best defense in the league. They just held a strong Seahawks team to 11 first downs and Seattle QB Russell Wilson to 11 of 27 with his passing. The Packers offense certainly presents a tougher challenge but the Rams defense will be up to the task. At the same time, the Green Bay defense is susceptible to strong ground games and I like what Los Angeles has been doing on that side of the ball in recent games. The Packers are just 3-3 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Rams, including playoffs, are 11-6 SU this season and only 3 of those 17 games was a loss by more than a 3 point margin for LA. In other words, great value with the big points here in my opinion. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #499 Monday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 8 ET - Of course it is not easy to argue against a team that is 11-0 on the season but that argument is made a little easier when you're playing on a team that is 7-0 this season plus catching nearly double digits in points in the match-up. The fact is that Ohio State is a high quality program and there were a few times this season that Alabama's defense certainly was made to look susceptible. That said, with a potent ground attack and the dynamic Justin Fields at QB, I am looking for the Buckeyes to be in this game all the way. The Crimson Tide caught a break with facing an over-rated Notre Dame last week while Ohio State was very impressive facing a Clemson team that only struggled this season when Trevor Lawrence was not available at QB. That said, the Buckeyes huge win last week over the Tigers should do more than raise a few eyebrows. What it does is validate that Ohio State is not only strong enough to trade scores with Alabama, they just might be strong enough to get the upset win too. That said, there is no way I am passing up on taking more than TD in points here. The Buckeyes allowed 22 points per game this season. The Crimson Tide have also put some impressive numbers together this season (of course) but did allow an average of 35.5 points per game in their games against Texas A & M, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Florida. This should be a great game and I expect it to be decided by just a single score either way. Yes an upset would not surprise me in the least. That said, give me the big points. 10* OHIO STATE |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -6 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #152 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - Following the money is not something I often do but there are exceptions. In this case, Pittsburgh is getting a lot of attention from the betting markets but rightfully so. Not only are the Steelers the much better defense, the Browns are dealing with a number of key issues. Cleveland has injury issues and has had covid issues which has impacted their preparation for this game plus forced guys out and has even forced their head coach out. That means the Browns interim head coach on the sideline will be their special teams coordinator. That makes for a very tall mountain to climb when you consider the Steelers wealth of playoff experience at head coach and as a team. Keep in mind, Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh are playoff warriors while Browns QB Baker Mayfield will be making his first ever playoff start. Cleveland's pass defense is allowing 288 yards per game when on the road this season. Pittsburgh's pass defense is allowing just 104 yards per game this season. The Browns will turn to their ground game to try and take some pressure off Mayfield here but the Steelers allowed just 93 rushing yards per game when at home. Cleveland went 1-5 ATS this season when on the road and facing teams not in the NFC East...in other words, teams with a pulse! Pittsburgh went 5-2 ATS in their final 7 home games this season. The Steelers have a long history of dominating the Browns when they face them at Heinz Field and that continues here. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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01-10-21 | Ravens -3 v. Titans | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #147 Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) Tennessee Titans @ 1:05 ET - Revenge can be overplayed for sure but when the situation is "just right" it certainly can be a major factor. This is one of those cases. Not only did the Ravens lose to the Titans in the post-season last year, they also lost again in the regular season this year. Also, though they lost to Tennessee in the playoffs a year ago, Baltimore actually significantly outgained the Titans in that game but turnovers were the difference. Now you can't (or shouldn't) just blindly play games because of a revenge angle. But in this case, other factors line up which lead to the value. The Ravens have the much better defense in this match-up as they allow only 18.9 points per game. Also, Baltimore went 6-2 on the road this season. Tennessee has allowed 33.3 points per game their last 3 home games and also lost 3 of their last 5 home games this season. The Titans truly don't show a big home field edge and also struggled against stronger teams including losses to the Steelers, Browns, Packers and Colts. The road team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams and that trend continues here. The Titans defense, in my opinion, simply can not be trusted here. The Ravens allowed 19 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Tennessee allowed 38 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. 10* BALTIMORE |
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01-09-21 | Bucs -8 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 31-23 | Push | 0 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #145 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-) @ Washington @ 8:15 ET - While it may seem tough to lay more than a TD on the road in a playoff game you'll feel better about it after you read a few things here. First off, the Buccaneers went 6-2 on the road this season plus they have a great run defense and a fantastic passing attack. Secondly, they are taking on a Washington team that went 4-2 against their own division which is the NFC East which could easily be re-named the NFC Least based on how things went this season. The team that almost beat them for the division was the New York Giants and Washington lost both games with them. In other words, this is not a very good football team and one of their other wins was against a Bengals team that went 4-11-1 this season. Additionally, another win was against the 49ers but Washington was outgained by over 150 yards in that game and fortunate to win. Unlike Washington, Tampa Bay has plenty of quality wins on their resume this season and plus the Bucs only played one game (Giants) against an NFC East foe. That said, the Buccaneers absolutely played the tougher schedule of these teams. Also, although Alex Smith is back at QB for Washington he is not 100 percent. As for TB's Mike Evans he is listed as questionable but has progressed very well this week and has no ligament damage so the top wide receiver should be very ready to go here for this one. Washington went just 2-5 SU in their final 7 home games this season and one of those wins was against the 4-11-1 Bengals! The home edge for Washington is simply not there and Tampa Bay traveled very well this season. Also, the Buccaneers average margin of victory was 17.4 points per game in their 11 wins this season. Washington scored an average of 15 points per game in their 5 home losses this season and the Bucs averaged 31 points per game this season. You can see why I am expecting TB to win this game by at least a two TD margin here. Lay it! 10* TAMPA BAY |
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01-09-21 | Colts +6.5 v. Bills | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #141 Saturday 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 1:05 ET - The Colts are very well coached and catching nearly a touchdown in this one. I know the Bills finished the season hot but Indianapolis is solid defensively. Also, the Bills faced some weak competition during their 6-game winning streak to close out the season. Don't get me wrong, Buffalo is certainly a very solid team, I am just saying that we have solid line value here with a very live dog in my opinion. The Colts went 5-2 SU/ATS in their final 7 road games of the season. Indianapolis also closed the season quite strong especially when you consider they dealt with some injury and covid-related issues over the final 5 weeks of the season. That is helping to give us some line value here in this one as is the fact the Colts blew a huge lead and lost to the Steelers a few weeks ago while Buffalo is off a big blowout win over Miami in the season finale. It all adds up to getting some additional line value with a road dog that travels well and plays solid defense plus has a future hall of famer, Rivers, at QB. Again, I like the coaching factor here too as I am impressed with Frank Reich and feel he could be an X-factor in this one too. The offensive mind of his trying to outsmart Bills head coach Sean McDermott who is a former defensive coordinator. Let the games begin, literally, and the dog takes the NFL Wild Card weekend opener - or at least takes the money in this one! 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles +4 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Washington @ 8:20 ET - This line is simply an over-reaction to the fact the Redskins need to win and the fact that the Eagles looked like garbage at Dallas last week. Head coach Doug Pederson is supposedly staying with the team but a meeting is scheduled for Tuesday. However, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is contemplating retirement and, at the very least, going to take a year off from the game in his estimation. Either way, Philadelphia is likely to now give more of an effort than you would have otherwise anticipated here. Yes it is a rivalry game and, yes, the Eagles can play the role of spoiler. However, the Eagles might have "mailed it in" were it not for the coaching situation noted above. Additionally, Philly is continuing to develop rookie QB Jalen Hurts and would like to close the season with a win. The fact we're getting 4 points here, after this line opened up around a pick'em, means even more value with the home dog in this one and Philly does tend to play better at home. The Eagles are 3-1 SU in their last 4 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Washington expected to have QB Alex Smith for this one but he is not 100% healthy and, overall, Washington is 2-4 ATS in true road games this season (7th game was on a neutral field). All the pressure is on the road team and the relaxed home team with nothing to lose is also catching sizable points in this one. The situation is too good to pass up on as an outright upset actually is quite likely here given the circumstances but grab the points for added insurance. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-03-21 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 7-18 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #131 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (-) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian so it would make perfect sense that I would have a contrarian play as my Game of the Year. The fact is that the Rams are on a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS run in games against the Cardinals. So my play in this all important must-win game is, of course, on Arizona and laying the points even though Los Angeles has had the upper hand in this series with Sean McVay as head coach. The key here is not only that Rams QB Jared Goff is out with a broken thumb and John Wolford will be making his first ever NFL start. It is also that the Rams are without other numerous starters and key players for this one. That means QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals should have the upper hand (finally!) in this match-up and I look for Arizona to pull away as this one goes on. They are off a disappointing loss to the 49ers but the Cardinals entered that game off back to back victories and will respond here with a big win. They got themselves back into the playoff race and now want to make sure their divisional nemesis does not get into the post-season plus Arizona themselves can get in with a win here and a Chicago loss. So there is plenty at stake in this game and the Cardinals are the much healthier team and the Rams enter this one off back to back losses and have truly let their season sleep away and they know it. This will be tough for Los Angeles to bounce back from and they are short-handed here plus dealing with covid issues. It all adds up to a blowout win for the road favorite in this one. The Cardinals Murray will have a huge game and I know this may seem like a very contrarian play but the road team is favored for a reason over a team they have lost to 7 straight times. That streak ends here in convincing fashion. Lay the small number. 10* ARIZONA |
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01-03-21 | Cowboys v. Giants +2 | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #108 Sunday 8* New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Did the Cowboys beat the Eagles last week or was it more that the Eagles beat themselves? It truly was more the latter than the former and I feel Dallas is being vastly over-valued in this spot. This game still matters to the Giants. With a win here and an Eagles home win over the Redskins tonight, New York is in the playoffs as the NFC East divisional champs. Dallas is favored on the road here but this is a team that was 1-5 SU and ATS in road games this season before destroying a Cincinnati team that was a mess when they faced them. I am well aware the Giants have lost 3 straight games but they also faced 3 tough teams that all have a winning record and are currently a combined 28-17 on the season. Prior to this tough stretch, New York had won 4 straight games SU and also was on a 7-2 ATS run. With all that is at stake here I look for a huge game from the home dog in this one. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Bowl Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #496 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 4 ET - The Cyclones have all the edges here in my opinion. They are the stronger team in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Iowa State also has the coaching edge with Campbell over Cristobal. The Cyclones are stronger at skill positions like QB and WR and also have the better overall defense. Iowa State allowed an average of only 13.3 points per game over their final 4 games of the season and just 18.1 points per game over their final 8 games of the season. As for the Ducks, they only played in 6 games this season and they allowed an average of 30 points per game over their final 5 games of the season. The Cyclones also faced a tougher overall schedule than Oregon did. Battle-tested Iowa State is also happy to be making their first- ever trip to the Fiesta Bowl while the Ducks have been here often plus, being a Pac-12 team, already play in plenty of games in Arizona on an annual basis. The situation here simply creates a hungrier team on the Cyclones sideline and given that plus the edges they have all over the field, I expect them to cover this number rather easily as they establish their ground game with Breece Hall leading the way. The fact the Ducks have to give a lot of respect to Iowa State's potent ground game of course means that things will be open for some solid opportunities through the air for veteran QB Brock Purdy. The result is a blowout win here as the Cyclones defense will also hold the Ducks in check here and that allows the favorite to pull away as this game goes on. 10* IOWA STATE |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Month Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #333 Friday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - Of course I am well aware of the fact that Ohio State played only a half dozen games this season while Clemson will reach the dozen mark in games by playing in this one. While some look at that as a disadvantage for the Buckeyes or that they don't belong here, the fact is it actually may be a big edge. Ohio State could prove to be the fresher team plus they also are heavily playing the revenge angle and underdog mentality and the disrespect card heading into this one. That disrespect card comes, in part, from Tigers coach Swinney ranking Ohio State 11th in the nation because they only played 6 games. Look for Ohio State to use this as additional motivation here and I expect a valiant effort from the revenge-minded underdogs in this one. Of course Clemson is a fantastic team but the fact they barely beat Boston College and lost to Notre Dame (when the Tigers were without Lawrence) shows that if the Buckeyes do a decent job limiting big opportunities for QB Lawrence in this one, they will be more successful than most are expecting. I love all the revenge and motivational edges here plus the fact we are getting more than TD with the underdog Ohio State in this one. Prior to being held to 22 points by a very strong Northwestern defense, the Buckeyes averaged 46.6 points per game in their first 5 games this season. QB Fields and company can give this solid Clemson defense trouble and I am expecting an upset win here which means I certainly am comfortable grabbing the points. If the Buckeyes do fall short I expect it to be by only a single score. 10* OHIO STATE |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia -7.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Earliest Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #328 Friday 8* Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ Noon ET - This one should get ugly. Why is a 2-loss Georgia team favored over an undefeated Cincinnati team? Exactly! I have been patiently waiting for this one and now look forward to the onslaught. The Bearcats played such a weak schedule that is laughable. Even with that they only won their last two games by 3 points apiece but again my point is they might have won half their games if they played the same schedule Georgia did. The key word there is might! As I noticed in some of my prior write-ups in successfully going against the Bearcats, they were actually outstatted in a couple of their big wins but most don't look at that, most just look at the scoreboard finals. That is what is also helping to give us line value here in going against the Cats. I know Georgia has to win this by more than a TD for us to cash this ticket but I do fully expect that. They are the better team in all facets of the game and in their true road games this season they allowed 16 points or less in 4 of 5 games. The Bearcats had more defensive struggles in some of their bigger games than what showed up on the scoreboard but even just looking at their final two games they did allow 28.5 points per game to Tulsa and Central Florida. That said, Georgia would be a double digit favorite if facing either one of those teams. Given all of the above, I do expect the Bulldogs to take this one by double digits as well. 8* GEORGIA |
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12-31-20 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Army | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Bowl Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #211 Thursday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 4 ET - The Mountaineers played a much tougher schedule than Army. Also, West Virginia is off a loss in their regular season finale but went 3-0 SU / ATS this season when entering a game off a loss. Coach Brown will be coaching West Virginia in a bowl game for the first time and I fully believe there is some extra incentive for him to get the win in this one. The line was as high as a 7.5 as it opened up and now it is down to a 6.5 as of game day morning. I feel this is giving us excellent line value in this spot as it crossed the key number of 7. Of course Army fits the classic role of a run-heavy underdog and they have a tendency to perform well in this role. However, Brown was previously the coach at Troy where current WVU DC Koenning was also the defensive coordinator. Brown and Koenning, as a result of experience in the Sun Belt Conference faced the option from time to time. Of course they also have had extra time to prepare for it here with this being a bowl game. That said, Army's offense is likely to struggle more than people realize here and they scored an average of only 16 points their last 4 games of the season. The Mountaineers are very solid defensively, especially considering some of the tough Big 12 offenses they faced, and they will hold Army's one-dimensional attack in check here. When West Virginia has the ball look for an all-out aerial assault as they averaged 277 passing yards per game. Also, coach Brown is 3-0 SU and ATS in bowl games and I look for him to make it 4-0 ATS in bowls while the Mountaineers also make it 4-0 ATS for the season when entering a game off a SU loss. This one is a blowout for the favorite. 10* WEST VIRGINIA |
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12-30-20 | Florida +7 v. Oklahoma | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #315 Wednesday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (+) vs Oklahoma Sooners @ 8 ET - Of course I am well aware of all the issues that are impacting the Gators passing game for this one. However, this line is now all the way up to a +7 and this is a proud SEC team that enters this game off back to back losses to end the regular season. That was preceded by a 3-game stretch in which Florida won all 3 games and did not allow more than 19 points in any of the 3 victories. The Sooners ended the season on a red hot winning run and I know their numbers on defense have looked great. However, Oklahoma did face a lot of struggling and weak offenses to close out the season. Keep in mind, in games against Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas the Sooners did allow a ton of points. Even with all the missing players, there is certainly hope for this SEC offense against that Sooner D and, at the same time, I definitely expect a bounce back effort from the Gators defense. They allowed 44.5 points per game over their past two games of the season and both were losses. Bounce back time here and, in terms of the big line, note that the Gators have not lost a game by more than 6 points all season. Grab the big points here as we go contrarian and fade the line move. 10* FLORIDA |
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12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -7 | Top | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Bowl Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #298 Tuesday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 9 ET - the buffaloes entered their season finale with a chance to play for the pac-12 title...instead, colorado blew a 21-10 lead and lost 38 to 21 to utah...after that disheartening loss i am looking for the buffaloes to get slaughtered here...yes, i know the longhorns had some defensive players opt out of this game but there are others behind them who have been waiting in the wings and chomping at the bit to get in there...watch the new blood on defense really step up in this game with an inspired effort...not only that, the strength of this horns team is its offense anyway and they will put on a show for the hometown faithful in this one...yes this game is in san antonio rather than austin but there is a huge contingent of longhorns fans in san antonio plus many will be driving down from austin for this game...the alamodome, even with restrictions due to covid, will still be loaded with texas fans...under coach herman, this is a 4th straight bowl trip and they were dog in each of the first three but not only covered those but won them outright...coach herman takes the bowls seriously and will again have his team ready here...they make it 4 in a row both straight up and against the spread with another big win here...last season the horns beat utah 38-10...yes it was the utes that just blasted the buffaloes in their final game this season and they are in for a rude awakening here as texas rolls...unlike ut, colorado is in a bowl for the first time in 4 years and they got blasted in that one by a 38-8 count and that was right here in this bowl...maybe things will change with head coach dorrell now calling the shots?...unlikely as he went 1-3 ats in bowls as head coach of ucla...this one is all longhorns to the delight of the home state faithful who will pack as many as they can into the alamodome in san antonio...with the line all the way down to a -7 after opening up near two touchdowns, the value is off the charts with this one...10* TEXAS |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #482 Monday 10* Top Play New England Patriots (+) vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - The Bills clinched the AFC East last week while the Patriots clinched missing the post-season! This is not the norm of course and certainly fits the bill as a role reversal. That said, New England is likely to be very motivated for this game. This is particularly true because Cam Newton's fumble in the red zone at Buffalo cost the Pats a chance to win the game in the first meeting this season. You know that coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots badly want this rematch while one could certainly question the motivation of the Bills here after clinching the division last week. I am well aware of the fact that Newton has struggled badly this season and that Buffalo definitely has the better offense in this match-up. However, I do expect Newton and the Pats to bring their A game in this one as they get a shot at the team that has dethroned them at the top of their division and they get that shot in a Monday Night game at home in Foxboro, MA. Note that the Patriots do hold the defensive edge in this match-up and that they are 4-2 SU at home this season. One of those home losses came by just 6 points and the line on this game is +7 plus New England's home wins include victories over Miami and Baltimore and those teams are each 10-5 on the season! The Patriots are fully capable of winning this game outright and the fact we are getting a full TD here thanks to the betting markets is simply tremendous added value in this spot. I expect the home dog to put up a helluva fight in this one and the Pats are 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a host underdog. Also, the Patriots had won 9 of last 10 against Bills before the tough 3-point loss at Buffalo earlier this season. Payback time. 10* NEW ENGLAND |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers -3 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #480 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - The Titans have a lot of pressure on them. Yes they are 10-4 on the season and tied for the top spot in the AFC South but they may not even make the playoffs! They haven't even clinched a post-season spot yet! That said, the playoff pressure absolutely could get to them here. As for the Packers, they sit at a sweet 11-3 on the season and have already locked up the NFC North. Yes, Green Bay still has incentive to win as they would love to lock up home field edge for the post-season but the pressure they feel is very minute compared to what the Titans are feeling here. Considering that as well as the Packers being the much better team defensively and having the home field edge here and the fact the line has gone from a -5 on GB to just a -3, yes I am backing the host in this one in a big way! Green Bay is on a 9-4 ATS run in games against AFC opponents. The Packers are allowing only 337.8 yards per game which ranks their defense in the top 25% of the league. Conversely, the Titans are allowing nearly 400 yards per game and they rank in the bottom third of the NFL defensively. Tennessee's most recent road game was against a very bad Jacksonville team but, prior to that, the Titans allowed an average of 28 points per game in 4 preceding road games. The Packers enter this game on a 4-game winning streak and have won 6 of their last 7 games overall and have allowed only 19.7 points per game in those 6 victories. The Packers defense doesn't get a lot of respect but they have been better than many realize and, as for QB Aaron Rodgers and this GB offense, they will have a huge day against the porous defense of the Titans. That sets this one up well for an absolute home blowout. 8* GREEN BAY |
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12-27-20 | Eagles -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Rivalry Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - It seems crazy but the Eagles, even with a 4-9-1 record, are still alive in the race for the NFC East. That's because they play Washington next week. If the Eagles win this game and Washington and the Giants (at Ravens) lose today, then the Eagles control their own destiny. That said, there will be no quit in the Eagles today as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive. Of course, the Cowboys are still alive too but their back to back wins are very deceiving. They beat a very bad Bengals team when Cincinnati was still adjusting to life without Joe Burrow at QB. Then, last week's win over San Francisco was quite deceiving. The 49ers held Dallas under 300 yards of offense and the Cowboys had just 15 first downs in the game but won it thanks to turnovers. They now face an Eagles team that is off a loss at Arizona which was also an ATS loss for most as they were a 6.5 point dog for most in that game. That is noteworthy here as, since a rough ATS start to the season way back in September, the Eagles have had back to back ATS losses only once. They have been scoring more points with Hurts at QB instead of Wentz and he accounted for over 400 yards of offense plus 4 total TDs in the loss to the Cardinals last week. While the Cowboys have allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games, the Eagles had allowed an average of only 22 points per game their last 7 games before the loss at Arizona. The Philly D will dominate the game here against a Cowboys offense that has endured a lot of struggles including in divisional action. In fact, Dallas is just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in divisional action this season. Look for the Cowboys to drop to 0-5 ATS in divisional games this season as the Eagles bounce back from last week's loss with hopes still alive for being in the driver's seat for the NFC East division next week. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-27-20 | Panthers +1 v. Washington Football Team | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Washington @ 4:05 ET - Typical contrarian play for me here. The Panthers have lost 8 of their last 9 games and yet are only a 1 point dog here against a Washington team that is trying to lock up the NFC East division and has won 4 of their last 5 games SU and 5 in a row ATS. Of course I am on Carolina in a contrarian spot like this and will fade Washington. The big issue for the host here is that QB Alex Smith is hurt and might miss this game. If he plays he won't be near 100 percent and if he doesn't play it means we're seeing Dwayne Haskins under center and he has struggled. I like the fact that Carolina, though struggling to get SU wins, has been very scrappy. The Panthers are still playing hard and they are hungry for a victory and they would love to play the role of spoiler. Adding up all those factors plus being the healthier team (Washington also without top WR Terry McLaurin for this one), Carolina is the play in this one. The Panthers are on a 5-1 ATS run as a road dog and also outgained the Packers in their loss at Green Bay last week. Additionally, Carolina has revenge from losing to Washington each of the past two seasons despite the Panthers having more first downs in each game. Payback time here as they play the role of spoiler on the road Sunday. 8* CAROLINA |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders +3 | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #462 Saturday NFL 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - The Dolphins are off a huge win versus the Patriots last week. Not only does that make this a potential flat spot for Miami, note also that the Dolphins were only 2-2 SU in their 4 preceding games. Also, those two wins came against the Jets and Bengals. Those teams have a combined 4-23-1 record on the season. I know the Dolphins have some solid numbers on defense this season but they are still fortunate to be 11-3 this season as they have a weak offense and also have played a much weaker schedule than the Raiders. That said, I love having Las Vegas as a home dog in this match-up. Plus, Carr is expected back at QB for this one and note that Mariota did play well in relief of Carr last week and is a dual-threat QB. Either way, I expect this talented Raiders offense to put a lot of pressure on the Dolphins. That said, Miami's anemic offense will struggle to keep up in this game. Miami is averaging just 313 yards in road games this season while the Raiders are averaging 386 yards in home games this season. Las Vegas has scored 27 points or more in 6 of its last 7 games while the Dolphins have not scored more than 27 points in any of their last 5 games. From a situational standpoint, with Miami off a huge divisional win and the Raiders off back to back home losses, this one sets up perfectly for a big top play on the home team. Grab the home dog in this one. 10* LAS VEGAS |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Bowl Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #283 Saturday 10* Top Play Liberty Flames vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 7:30 ET - The Chanticleers complained about their ranking and their bowl game. Now watch this undefeated Coastal Carolina team lose outright. That is what I fully expect but I will grab the points as added insurance here especially since the line has moved to a full +7. I know that the Chanticleers feel disrespected but this Liberty team is on their level and is likely to surprise here given that Coastal Carolina could be lamenting their bowl position. When you are more worried about what could have been or what should have been rather than the task at hand you often are setting yourself up for disappointment. I fully believe that will prove to be the case here with the Chanticleers. Yes Coastal Carolina is undefeated on the season but they faced a weak schedule and now face a Liberty team that went 9-1 on the season. Also, the Flames did face 3 ACC teams and they won two of those games outright and lost the 3rd by just a single point! Liberty is a high-quality team but the marketplace is wrapped up in Coastal Carolina's 11-0 record. Of course we can use that to our advantage and grab the line value with the big dog Flames in this one. 10* LIBERTY |
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12-26-20 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #459 Saturday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 4:30 ET - Keep in mind, the 49ers have already been playing their "home" games at this venue in Arizona due to covid-related restrictions imposed in California. That said, this isn't much of a "road" game for the Niners and I love the fact that they are a sizable dog here despite the fact they deserved much better than what they got at Dallas last week. That loss to the Cowboys was despite a huge yardage edge of 167 yards and is helping to give us line value this week. Keep in mind, the Cardinals are off a key win over the Eagles last week and could fall flat here. The 49ers will be up for facing a divisional foe and with the ability to play the role of spoiler and note that Arizona is just 2-6 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite. The Niners have covered 7 of their last 10 road games. Look for those trends to continue here. 8* SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints -7 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 106 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
Christmas Day Special - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #452 Friday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:30 ET - The Viking season effectively came to an end last week with their home loss to the Bears. That defeat eliminated Minnesota from post-season contention. As for the Saints, they are off a loss last week but it came against the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs. Not only that, New Orleans now has Drew Brees back under center but they also are trying to hold off the Buccaneers for the NFC South division title. That said, coming off back to back losses but at home and highly motivated, I fully expect a blowout win for the Saints in this one. New Orleans has the much better defense in this match-up plus they catch a Minnesota team that could be flat after their disappointing result last week ended their playoff hopes for this season. Given the emotional letdown for the Vikings as well as considering their struggles on defense, Minnesota can be expected to drop to 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road dog. As for the Saints, they had won 9 straight games SU and 5 in a row ATS before this two game skid against the Eagles and Chiefs. With their leader, Brees, back in the fold you will see a very determined New Orleans team in this one and they will keep the hammer down all game long. 4 of the Vikings losses this season have come by at least 9 points and this one will too. Remember the Saints have revenge too from the playoff loss to the Vikings in OT last season! Also, 4 of the last 5 wins for NO have come by a margin of at least 2 TD's. Look for another huge margin victory in this one. Lay it! 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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12-25-20 | Marshall +5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Perfection Play - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #279 Friday 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (+) vs Buffalo Bulls in Camellia Bowl @ Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, AL @ 2:30 ET - Both teams played weak schedules this season but the Bulls schedule was even weaker. Also, Buffalo allowed 38 points or more in 2 of their last 3 games while the Thundering Herd never allowed more than 22 points in a game this season. On the full season, Marshall allowed an average of only 12.6 points per game and they do match up very well with the Bulls. That is because Marshall's strength on defense is against the run and if Buffalo struggles to establish their ground game here they could be in trouble. I am well aware of the fact that the Marshall offense struggled in their final two games of the season which were their only 2 losses on the year. However, the Thundering Herd did average nearly 38 points per game in their 7 victories this season. This team has plenty of confidence and has an excellent track record in bowls and so does their head coach Holiday. I also like the fact that Holiday had won 5 straight bowls before last season's bowl loss while Buffalo was 0-3 in bowl games until they won last season. That sets this one up perfectly for an upset here. Grab the points with the better defensive team in this one. 10* MARSHALL |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +10 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #277 Thursday 10* Top Play Hawaii Warriors (+) vs Houston Cougars in New Mexico Bowl at Frisco, TX @ 3:30 ET - Believe it or not an underdog is going to eventually cover in a bowl game in this bowl season and I expect that to finally happen today. Compared to the closing number (and with Nevada reflected as a -1 in their win over Tulane), there has not been a single underdog cover in the bowls yet. That changes today. Windy conditions expected for this one this afternoon in Frisco, TX. That will make it difficult for pass-happy Houston to pull away in this game. The Cougars are being asked to cover a double digit spread here and I just don't see that happening here. While one could argue that the location of this game favors Houston since it is in their home state, I question the Cougars motivation here. How happy can they be to go to a pre-Christmas bowl game and not even leave their home state? Teams want bigger and better things! In other words, Hawaii is likely more excited to be here and playing in a bowl game far away from home than a Cougars team that certainly wanted something more than playing a bowl game in their home state and sitting with a 3-4 record on the season. It also does not bode well for Houston that their head coach (Holgorsen) does not have a good history in bowls with just 2 wins in 7 tries and only a 1-6 ATS record in bowl appearances. The Cougars wrapped up the season on a disappointing 1-3 SU and ATS skid while the Warriors won 2 of their last 3 games SU and also had an 8 point loss to Boise State that saw them cover as a big double-digit dog. Look for the hungry dog to get the money in this one. 10* HAWAII |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Perfection Play - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #275 Wednesday 10* Top Play Florida Atlantic Owls (+) vs Memphis Tigers in Montgomery Bowl in Montgomery, AL @ 7 ET - The Owls are 4-0 SU and ATS all-time in bowls. The Tigers are 0-5 SU and ATS their their last 5 bowls. Indeed this is literally the perfect spot to fade Memphis and play on Florida Atlantic. I know the Owls are off an embarrassing season-ending loss which also was their 2nd straight defeat after going 5-1 in their first 6 games of the season. However, FAU was on short rest when they faced Southern Mississippi and, prior to that game, the Owls had not allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. In fact, Florida Atlantic had allowed an average only 12.4 points per game on the season. That said, the fact we are catching nearly double digits here with the Owls as a big dog against Memphis is certainly intriguing. FAU went 2-2 ATS in road game this season and scored 31 points or more in 2 of their last 3 games away from home. Memphis went 0-4 ATS in road games this season and averaged only 17 points per game in those games. The one edge the Tigers have against the Owls here is on the offensive side of the ball BUT Memphis did not travel well this season. That said, how much of an edge is it really? Exactly! That is why I like the stronger defense and more successful bowl team to continue their solid run in post-season affairs with yet another ATS cover - their 5th in a row - while the Tigers drop their 6th straight bowl game ATS. Memphis might finally get off the schneid and get a SU win here but look for it to be just a single score if they do. The Owls defense comes to play in this one and keeps them in this game. The Tigers strength is their passing attack but FAU has a solid pass defense. 10* FLORIDA ATLANTIC |
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12-22-20 | Tulane -2 v. Nevada | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #269 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave (-) vs Nevada Wolf Pack @ 3:30 ET - Tulane is the more rested team here. I realize the location of this game favors Nevada but the Green Wave have had plenty of time to prepare for and travel to this game. I like the fact that this will be just the 2nd game for Tulane since November 20th while, keep in mind, all 8 of Nevada's games have been played from October 24th onward. The fact that Tulane started their season way back in early September is an advantage here. Also, the Wolf Pack will be playing for what is essentially the 9th straight week with just a couple extra days of rest mixed in there. Note that in Tulane's last 9 games, the favorite is a perfect 9-0 SU. In other words if you just played the favorite straight up in the last 9 games for the Green Wave you have gone 9-0 and the line on this game is only a -2 as of early game day morning. Tulane is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they have been a favorite this season. I like the fact that the Green Wave have won each of their bowl games the last two seasons under coach Fritz and also that they wrapped up this season on a 4-1 SU and 6-1 ATS run. Conversely, the Wolf Pack lost to a MAC team in the bowls last season plus wrapped up this season with losing 2 of their last 3 games. Nevada enters this bowl off a very disappointing effort against San Jose State. Even though the Green Wave defense is missing a couple players for this game they are still the much better team in this match-up and there is a reason the 5-loss team is favored over the 2-loss Wolf Pack. Don't let the line fool you. The line move shows the public took the bait and I am happy to now grab the extra line value after the market movement. Lay the short number. 10* TULANE |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals +14.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #370 Monday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Bengals lost to the Cowboys last week but actually held the yardage edge in that game. Also, Pittsburgh is off back to back losses and will be happy just to win this game which means the victory will not necessarily come in blowout fashion! The Steelers have a tough home with the surging Colts on deck so they will leave a little in the tank for that one coming up on Sunday. As for facing Cincinnati, this is simply a "game management" type game for Pittsburgh in my opinion. Just grind out a win, don't make big mistakes, stay healthy, and move forward to bigger and better things. For the Bengals, it is anything but that. This is Cincinnati's chance to get a big primetime upset win over a division rival. Of course I am not saying that will happen as I certainly don't expect an outright win. But I do feel that the spread of 14.5 on this game is too much. I am looking for a loss in the 7 to 10 point range. The Steelers are actually on an ugly 0-5 ATS run as a road favorite in divisional action. Also, the Bengals have covered 6 of the last 8 times they have been a divisional home dog. Prior to the loss to the Cowboys (ugly defeat but yardage edge for Cincinnati), the Bengals were on a 4-0 ATS run in home games. Note that the Steelers enter this game on an 0-3 ATS run. Look for this one to be a bit ugly and for it to remain a much closer game than many are expecting as the home team goes all out in this rare primetime game as a host. 10* CINCINNATI |
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12-20-20 | Browns -6.5 v. Giants | 20-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #361 Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Giants, especially without QB Daniel Jones (expected to be out again) just do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with this red hot Browns offense. That is why I am willing to lay the points here with Cleveland on the road. I just don't see the Giants scoring enough to hang around in this game. Granted, the New York defense has some great numbers on the season and I do respect their D. But they also have been helped by facing a lot of weak and struggling offenses including those of their fellow NFC East counterparts. That said, facing a Browns team that put up over 40 points in back to back weeks and has averaged 33 points their last 4 games presents an entirely different level of challenge to the New York defense. Also, the Giants are allowing 25 points per game in home games this season so they actually have been better away from home. I know the Browns defense has some scary bad numbers but the New York offense is really hurting without a healthy Jones under center. And Colt McCoy? Sorry but he has never been a quality NFL quarterback and especially now in his mid-30s and with little playing time in recent years he is even less of a back-up than he use to be in his prime. So here you have a Giants offense that has averaged 14 points per game their last 3 games and that doesn't many weapons and lost their best one, RB Barkley, early this season. New York faces a Cleveland team that is off a loss and hasn't lost back to back games this entire season. The Browns are clearly on a mission this season and the better team pulls away as this game goes on. Lay it! 8* CLEVELAND |
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12-20-20 | Eagles +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 26-33 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #363 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The NFC East is still up for grabs. Certainly the Eagles have put themselves in a hole but the win over the Saints last week with Hurts now in at QB has breathed life into the Eagles. If the Redskins - about a TD dog to Seattle - lose in early action Sunday then Philadelphia could move to within a 1/2 game of first place in the NFC East and, keep in mind, they face the Redskins in the final game of the regular season. In other words, at least at this point in time, the Eagles still have life courtesy of the win over New Orleans last week. Now Philly takes on an Arizona team that is off a win but that victory was preceded by a 1-4 SU run and 0-5 ATS run. In other words, the Cardinals have been struggling badly and the Eagles are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games. They can remain competitive in this game even if they ultimately fall short. Philadelphia, before an ugly loss to Tampa Bay, had seen 3 of their 4 prior losses come by a margin of 6 or less points. This one will fall into that category too or could even be an outright Philly win. Why? Well the Cardinals are allowing 29.5 points per game when at home this season and simply can't be trusted here. Before Arizona's win over a Giants team with a punchless offense, the Cards allowed 31 points per game their preceding 6 games. The Eagles enter this game having allowed an average of 22 points per game their last 7 games. Also, Philly has positive energy again after the win over the Saints. That will show up on the field here this week as Arizona drops to 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +7 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #352 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - A lot of nice angles for the Falcons in this one. Though it did take OT for Atlanta to win the most recent meeting they did hold a 28-14 first down edge in that game at Tampa Bay. Also, the Buccaneers are off a win but that was preceded by losing 3 of 4 games. The Falcons are off back to back losses but that was preceded by a solid 4-2 SU/ATS stretch. In other words, lets not be too quick to judge just based on last week's results and note too that the Bucs were actually outgained in their win over the Vikings last week. Atlanta has covered 6 of the last 8 times they have been a home dog in divisional action and this line is moving to as high as a +7 for this one! Plus their interim head coach, Morris, use to be a head coach for TB about a decade ago but then was fired after only a couple seasons. You know this one means a little extra for him! The Falcons lost on a field goal as time expired at LA against the Chargers last week but now they can regroup at home where they haven't lost a game by more than 7 points since their season opener! Excellent home dog value here as Tom Brady and the Bucs continue to be over-rated. 8* ATLANTA |
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12-19-20 | Panthers v. Packers -8 | Top | 16-24 | Push | 0 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #344 Saturday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:15 ET - The Panthers have been successful as a road dog but they also have been fortunate. They have forced 2 turnovers per game on the road this season. That is unlikely to happen against these Packers as they have turned the ball over just 3 times in 6 home games this season! Also, Carolina has nothing to play for now. Up until last week they still had some hope of maybe making a run. But the loss to Denver guarantees a losing season and guarantees that the Panthers are going nowhere this season. That is tough for a football team when reality sets in and so Carolina goes on the road right after finding out their season is officially finished. Green Bay wins this game as they are 5-1 SU at home this season but of course the all important question is whether or not they cover. I feel strongly they will because I expect a very disinterested effort from the Panthers here and note Green Bay so often wins big. 4 of their 5 home wins this season have come by a margin of 14 or more points! The last time that Carolina faced a strong team they were at home against Tampa Bay and got blasted by 23 points! Since then they have faced nothing but teams with a losing record and I now look for them to struggle against a Packers team that is still playing hard for home field edge in the NFC. Their 10-3 record has them tied with the Saints for top spot in the conference. Green Bay caught a break when New Orleans was knocked off by the lowly Eagles in a big upset. That good break has brought even more positive energy to a Packers locker-room that has already been surging with momentum thanks to three straight wins and victories in 5 of their last 6 games. These two teams will prove to be at opposite ends of the motivation spectrum for this game and that means Lambeau Field turns into Blowout City for the home team when the final whistle sounds on this one. Lay it! 10* GREEN BAY |
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12-19-20 | Tulsa +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
The Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #237 Saturday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 8 ET - I know the AAC Championship Game is being played at Cincinnati's home stadium but this is too many points. Tulsa has played the tougher schedule this season and the Bearcats were quite fortunate in the turnover battle in their wins when they did step up in class. If you take a look at their stats in those match-ups you will see what I am talking about but lets just say they have led a bit of a 'charmed life' so far this season and I fully expect their luck to run out here. That doesn't mean they will lose this game outright but I do feel strongly that Tulsa will be in this game all the way. The Golden Hurricane defense is arguably just as good as Cincinnati's and this is particularly true when you factor in strength of schedule. That said, the Bearcats are in for a dogfight in this game. Tulsa has won 6 straight games SU and is also 6-1 ATS this season. The Golden Hurricane also have an advantage in that they have played a game in the past two weeks while Cincinnati has not played a game since a month ago! Tulsa lost by 11 points at Cincy last season but they actually outgained them by 60 yards but were done in by 5 turnovers in the game. I certainly do not expect a repeat of that as the Golden Hurricane are only turning the ball over 1.5 times a game on the road this season. About the scheduling and breaks, here is an excerpt from my write-up on Central Florida when they lost by just 3 to Cincinnati in the Bearcats most recent game 4 weeks ago: "Though the Bearcats won big at SMU in their lone road game, they actually had just 17 first downs in that game while the Mustangs had 22. Cincinnati is absolutely a very good team but they have had it quite easy so far this season with scheduling and all the breaks seeming to go their way too." This is going to be an all-out war and the only loss the Golden Hurricane have is as a 23 point dog against Oklahoma State in their season opener and they covered easily as they only allowed 16 points to the Cowboys in that game. Don't be surprised if this game goes down to the wire so grab the big points. 10* TULSA |
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12-18-20 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +7 | Top | 28-21 | Push | 0 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Big Ten Punisher Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #208 Friday 10* Top Play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 7:30 ET - Rutgers QB Noah Vedral would love to face his former team but is dealing with an ankle injury. Though I do expect him to go here, Artur Sitkowski has played well this season and helped lead the way to an overtime victory at Maryland last week. The key for me here is that the Scarlet Knights continue to fight hard and give strong effort week after week. Conversely, the Cornhuskers are off an inexcusable home loss to Minnesota last week as an 8 point favorite. Now Nebraska is on the road and this line has risen as high as a 7 and that means it is go time with Rutgers here. The Scarlet Knights have won 3 of their last 4 games ATS and two of those were outright upset wins. Even though Rutgers has been giving strong efforts of late they still sit at 0-4 SU on the season in home games. Undoubtedly they will give it their all for coach Schiano in their home finale here and I fully expect them to improve to 6-2 ATS under Schiano as an underdog. Note that the Cornhuskers have dropped 11 of last 15 under coach Frost as a favorite. Statistically these teams are trending very close on the season and I look for them to build off the big road win last week while the Huskers have proven already that they are merely looking ahead to next season. Last week's home loss to the Golden Gophers says a lot. The home dog is the play here. 10* RUTGERS |
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12-14-20 | Ravens -3 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #179 Monday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) @ Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - This is a contrarian play and, as long-time followers know, going contrarian is something I often do in the NFL. The fact is that the Browns are 2 games in front of the Ravens in the standings plus they are at home where they are 5-1 on the season. Also, Cleveland has revenge from getting hammered at Baltimore in their season opener. Additionally the Browns have the rest edge here since they have been playing Sunday games for weeks on end whereas the Ravens had the recent scheduling problems with their game against the Steelers. As a result, Baltimore will be playing for the 3rd time in a span of 13 days when they take the field tonight. However, considering all of the above, when the markets look at this game they will wonder how in the world it can be that it is the Ravens who are favored by a field goal on the road in this one? My response to that is...exactly! In other words, don't be fooled by the line here or the situation. The odds makers are telling you all you need to know here and that is that Baltimore is the better team and favored for a reason. I like the fact that they have allowed a total of just 36 points their last two games whereas the Browns allowed 35 points at Tennessee last week and 25 at Jacksonville the week before. Also, I like the fact that other than the win over Titans and a win over the Colts, the Browns other 7 wins have come against 6 teams (beat Bengals twice) with a combined record of 21-55-2 on the season! Now they take on a Ravens team that, though they've underperformed at times this season, are still a Baltimore team that is off a 14-2 season last year. Also, in road games this season when Lamar Jackson is under center, the Ravens have gone 4-1 this year. Give the Browns some credit for getting tight wins when they have needed to but also they have been blasted by a combined 92-19 in their 3 losses this season and I sense another one here. Off the big confidence-boosting win over the Cowboys last week, the Ravens are back in the saddle again and I fully expect a dominating road performance here and the better defense keys the victory here. 10* BALTIMORE |
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12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +2 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #160 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - You wouldn't know it based on the way they played last week but the Bears do have a solid defense. That said, after getting embarrassed at home by allowing 400 passing yards to the Lions last week, I do expect a big response from the Chicago defense in the 2nd game of back to back home contests. No one likes getting embarrassed at home and no one likes losing 6 straight games but that is currently the situation for the Bears. They will respond here against a Texans team that is getting a little too much respect from the betting markets. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the league and, prior to winning their most recent road game, had been 1-4 SU and ATS in road games this season. Chicago's offense has been moving the ball better with Trubisky at QB again and will take advantage of the porous Texans defense in this one. To the public bettor it will look easy to take Houston here and fade a Bears team on a 6-game losing streak. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of that thinking and grabbing the home dog in this one as they respond off last week's home loss to Detroit. 8* CHICAGO |
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12-12-20 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor +6 | Top | 42-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Month - 10* Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - The Bears have struggled on offense this season, particularly their ground game. However, Baylor has the better defense in this match-up and they are 2-1 SU at home this season. There is a reason that a ranked Oklahoma State team is favored by less than a TD against a Bears team that has a 2-6 SU record on the season. In other words, don't be fooled by the line here. It is set this way for a reason and I have a strong feeling about an upset win here. Baylor has won 4 of the last 5 meetings both SU and ATS. Also, the Bears are allowing just 355 yards per game and their defense keeps them in games. Conversely, the Cowboys have allowed an average of over 500 yards per game their last 3 games plus they enter this game on an 0-5 ATS run. The home dog is going to give Oklahoma State all they can handle here just as they seem to do every year in recent meetings. I am expecting an outright upset as this Bears defense has played motivated football all season long and the Baylor offense does have a veteran QB and a decent passing game. They'll find a way in my opinion for the outright win but I am grabbing the points for added insurance here. 10* BAYLOR plus points |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams -5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots are off a huge 45-0 road win over the Chargers. However, don't jump to conclusions based on that one performance. For one thing, New England only had a yardage edge of 33 yards in that game. Secondly, the Patriots entered that game having lost 4 of 5 road games SU and ATS. So New England is off a rare road win. As for the Rams, their most recent home game was a rare loss. Yes, Los Angeles was a perfect 4-0 SU at home before they lost hosting San Francisco two weeks ago. The Rams responded by blasting the Cardinals at Arizona last week. Unlike the Pats, LA actually had a big yardage edge that justified the big win. Los Angeles dominated their division rival to the tune of a 463-232 edge in yardage. Not only that, the Rams have big time revenge here because they lost in the Super Bowl in an embarrassing performance against Tom Brady and the Patriots two years ago. Will they get their revenge? I feel strongly that they absolutely will as Brady is now in Tampa Bay and Cam Newton has struggled badly in his time with the Patriots. New England enters this game off back to back wins but has averaged just 235 yards of offense in those two victories. The Patriots will prove to be no match for a revenge-minded Rams team that has the much better offense plus one of the best defenses in the NFL. This line may seem set in a strange range considering it is a -5 but don't let that scare you away on this one. It is bigger than a 3 or 4 for a reason and I see LA pulling away for a victory by a double digit margin in this one. Look for the Rams to improve to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games while the Patriots drop to 2-5 SU and ATS in road games this season. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-07-20 | Washington Football Team +6.5 v. Steelers | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Non Conf Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #487 Monday 10* Top Play Washington (+) @ Pittsburgh @ 5 ET - This set up favors Washington in a big way. While they have not played since Thanksgiving and are well rested here, the situation is much different for Pittsburgh. The Steelers were supposed to play on Thanksgiving but the game got postponed multiple times because of covid-19 issues and did not get played until the following Wednesday. That means Washington has a rest edge of nearly a full week in comparison with Pittsburgh's situation. Also, it is simply hard to envision the Steelers finishing the season with an undefeated record. Pittsburgh is now 11-0 on the season and you know that a defeat is imminent. I am not necessarily forecasting that this happens here but I do feel the points will prove to be well worth the taking. 4 of the Steelers last 6 wins have come by a margin of 5 or less points. We're getting a solid 6.5 across the board in this one as of early Monday morning. Many don't realize this but Washington does have a very solid defense. Look for that to be a key in terms of them hanging around in this game. In Washington's last 6 games they had one bad game defensively but allowed an average of only 14.2 points per game in the other 5 games. Washington has scored a solid average of 26.6 points per game its last 5 games and Alex Smith has thrown for 1,030 yards in his 4 games since taking over after the injury to Kyle Allen. Look for the Steelers to drop to 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a non-divisional home favorite as Pittsburgh is off a divisional win and this is a non-conference match-up on short rest. Also, the Steelers have a tough road trip at an AFC opponent, Buffalo, on deck. 10* WASHINGTON |
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12-06-20 | Broncos +13.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs are over-valued here. What many are looking at here is that the Broncos looked so bad last week against the Saints but, keep in mind, they were without any of their quarterbacks. Those guys are back this week including Drew Lock and I expect a much better performance on offense as a result. The other thing many are looking at here is that the Broncos lost the first meeting to the Chiefs with an ugly final score of 43 to 16. However, Denver actually outgained Kansas City by 125 yards in that game and the difference in the game was the turnovers as the Broncos had 4 of them! Even penalties played a role as Denver had 5 compared to KC having just 1. Each of the last 3 meetings have been blowout wins for the Chiefs but that is helping to give us line value here because the Broncos already proved in the first meeting (despite the final score) that they can compete with Kansas City. The Chiefs have won 6 straight but each of their last 3 wins have come by a margin of 4 or less points. That is part of the reason that KC enters this game on an 0-3 ATS losing streak. As for the Broncos, they are 3-1 ATS in AFC road games this season. The Chiefs have the better offense in this match-ups but the better defense (despite ppg averages) belongs to the Broncos as they are allowing 19.3 yards per game less than Kansas City is. Look for another strong effort from the underdog in this one just like we saw statistically in the first game. The difference in this one is that it equates to a cover. 10* DENVER |
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12-06-20 | Washington State +13 v. USC | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #489 Sunday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (+) @ USC Trojans @ 7:30 ET - This is a much a play against USC as it is a play on Washington State. Going to keep this one short and sweet but the fact is that the Trojans are very fortunate to be 3-0 on the season as they barely escaped against Arizona and Arizona State. Though the Trojans did pull away for a big win over Utah, they were fortunate in that they caught the Utes playing their first game of the season and USC took full advantage of that. However, that is certainly not the case here and the Cougars have the firepower on offense to hang around in this one. That is particularly true with QB Jayden De Laura upgraded to probable for this one. Washington State has struggled on the defensive side of the ball but they faced Oregon and Oregon State (when the Beavers QB was healthy). Look for the Cougars to fare better on that side of the ball in this one as the Trojans have been a little inconsistent on offense. As for the Cougars offense, they have scored well and moved the ball well and I certainly like that combo here with them catching nearly two full td's in this match-up at Southern Cal. 10* WASHINGTON STATE |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -13 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #402 Saturday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - The Hoosiers are ranked higher than the Badgers and are also an undefeated 6-0 ATS on the season and yet they are nearly 2 TD underdogs in this match-up! See anything funny about that? Exactly! Don't fall for the attractiveness of what markets will say is a phony line here. The fact is that the Hoosiers would be in trouble here even if they had QB Michael Penix here but he is now out for the season. Indiana is facing a Wisconsin defense that has allowed only 11.7 points per game this season. Now the Hoosiers face them with a lot of question marks at the QB position too as they now have an unproven signal-caller stepping in. The Badgers are still angry off their loss a few weeks ago against Northwestern and haven't played since. Wisconsin is rested and ready to respond and lets not forget that their only two games besides the loss to the Wildcats were a pair of wins by a combined score of 94-18. The Hoosiers lost their most recent road game and that was the only other time they have been a road dog this season. Though Indiana only lost the game by 7 at Ohio State, they actually were getting blasted in that game and down huge at the half. The Hoosiers rallied in the 2nd half as the Buckeyes took their foot off the gas courtesy of a big lead and then Penix took over with big plays for the offense. Again, Penix is now out for the year and also the Badgers are angry and won't let up here and have a fantastic defense and they are at home. Wisconsin will win the battles in the trenches on both sides of the ball and when you dominate the line of scrimmage plus have the better QB situation (Mertz has been great and Coan is available now too if needed) you generally dominate the game! Look for that to be the case here and my projections have the Badgers winning this one by a margin of at least 3 touchdowns. Lay the big points as the home team improves to 11-0 SU L11 and 6-0 ATS L6 in meetings with Indiana. 10* WISCONSIN |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Appalachian State | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8:30 ET - The Mountaineers have won 8 straight meetings with UL-Lafayette. Also, the Ragin' Cajuns have locked up the Sun Belt West Division. Those factors would lead one to believe that there is no way that Appalachian State, at home especially, is only a 2.5 point favorite in this one. My comment to that...exactly! In typical contrarian fashion I am taking the underdog in this one. Yes ULL has lost 8 straight to App State but that is actually a key to their motivation here. Even though they have locked up the SBC West, the Ragin' Cajuns are highly motivated to end their 8-game losing streak to the Mountaineers. The fact that ULL has allowed an average of only 330 yards per game their last 4 games is a good sign. Teams that control the defensive stats are a good team to bet on (particularly when a dog) and the Mountaineers dominated Troy in their most recent game but allowed 34 points in a loss in their game just prior to that one. On the season, the Ragin' Cajuns have played the tougher schedule. Also, ULL lost to Appalachian State twice last season including the SBC Championship Game and that was despite having 31 first downs compared to just 20 first downs for the Mountaineers in that game. Finally, on Friday night in Boone, NC the Ragin' Cajuns get their shot at revenge. Look for them to make the most of it. 10* UL LAFAYETTE |
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12-02-20 | Ravens +10.5 v. Steelers | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
*NOTE: I am aware that Lamar Jackson (among others) is now out for this game and Robert Griffin is likely getting the start at QB for the Ravens in this one. I am also aware that this game has been moved yet AGAIN - this time to WEDNESDAY. I still like this play plenty as it is a contrarian play offering huge value. Don't be surprised when the rest of the Baltimore team steps up in this huge rivalry (and revenge) game. Here is the original write-up:* AFC North Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #125 Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Tremendous line value here because the Steelers are undefeated on the season, come into this game on a 7-1 ATS run while the Ravens are on a 1-4 ATS run and off B2B SU losses. Plus Pittsburgh won the first meeting this season and that was at Baltimore. As a result of all those factors, a line that was as low as a -2.5 is now up as high as a -5.5 on the Steelers and I love the value being offered to the road dog in this one. The Ravens lost in a rain storm at New England two weeks ago and then they were looking ahead to this rematch game when they lost in OT versus Tennessee last week. That said, Baltimore is very under-valued right now. Keep in mind, they actually outgained the Steelers by over 200 yards (including a positive edge of 217 on the ground!) when they faced them of the first of this month. The Ravens were simply done in by turnovers in that game and that is what the betting markets seem to be overlooking here. This is a very strong Baltimore team and they are in a preferred role here as well! Why is that? Well, the Ravens have only lost the money ONCE the last DOZEN times they have been a road dog! I know the Steelers are having a great season. Everyone knows that. But their highly unlikely to go 16-0 and certainly this looks like a great spot for an upset win. Either way, grabbing the points should absolutely prove to be the ATS winner. 10* BALTIMORE |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +6.5 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Too much value with the home dog to pass up on here. Keep in mind the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU in their last 4 game at home and the only loss came by just two points. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU in their last 3 road games and allowed 104 points in those 3 games. Seattle certainly has a talented offense but the Eagles have allowed a respectable 20.8 points per game in their last 4 home games. Also, Seattle's defense is certainly not a strength and the Eagles offense may surprise some people here. Philly has won only 3 of it's last 8 games but those other 5 games were decided by an average margin of 5.2 points per game. This line is up to nearly a full TD on Seattle and it is simply too much with them on the road for this one. Philadelphia lost in the regular season and in the playoffs last season to the Seahawks and each defeat came by exactly the same score: 17-9. Payback time here. There were very few outright upsets in Sunday's NFL but you know there are shockers nearly every week in NFL and this one has the makings of one. Double revenge spot for the Eagles and note that the Seahawks are off a big divisional revenge win over Arizona. Situational spot favors the home dog. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-29-20 | Bears +10 v. Packers | Top | 25-41 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Chicago Bears (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - This is just too many points. The Bears could actually get a boost with Mitchell Trubisky returning at QB. The fact is that Nick Foles had not been playing that well. Also, the last 4 meetings between these teams have all been decided by 8 or less points. The Bears have lost 4 straight games but each of the last 3 defeats have been by 7 or less points. The Packers are off a loss at Indianapolis Sunday in overtime while Chicago has the benefit of entering this game off a bye week. The Packers have played 10 games this season and only 4 of those have resulted in a win by a double digit margin. The Bears are still a proud team and they have had extra time to sort some things out courtesy of the bye week. Chicago actually piled up a lot of passing yardage in their two match-ups with Green Bay last season and Trubisky was the QB for both of those. Don't be surprised if they do some damage through the air in this one. They absolutely need a spark and Trubisky could provide it. The Packers are on a 2-4 ATS run and continue to be over-valued in my opinion. The defenses in this match-up are equal or even slightly favor in of the Bears. Of course Green Bay holds the edge on offense but I have a feeling Chicago is going to look much different this week on offense and will do enough damage here to stay inside this inflated number. This is a rivalry game and we're getting plenty of points when you consider that factor as well. This is a huge game for the Bears to try and close the gap on the division lead that Green Bay has. Don't be surprised when they put up a major fight in this one and stay close throughout this game as they seek the big upset win to stay in the division race. 10* CHICAGO |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins v. Jets +7.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #266 Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - The Dolphins, in my opinion, are one of the most over-rated teams in the league and certainly have been among the most fortunate. With Miami, you have a team who entered last week's action with a 6-3 record on the season and yet they have a yardage differential of NEGATIVE 72.1 yards per game on the season. The Dolphins only average 308.6 yards per game on offense and I feel last week's loss at Denver is a sign of things to come. I know the Jets are 0-10 on the season but they have covered back to back games and 3 of their last 4. They also are a sizable home dog here as they are getting as many as 7.5 in some spots as of early gameday morning. That is significant as New York has covered 13 of the last 17 times they have been a home dog in divisional action. The Jets got embarrassed at Miami in a 24-0 loss last month. They make up for that here and get a little payback. If they fall short of the outright win, they still stay inside the inflated number in this game. 8* NEW YORK JETS |
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11-28-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas State +17.5 | Top | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #226 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas State Bobcats (+) vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 3 ET - I fully understand that Coastal Carolina is a ranked team, undefeated on the season, and that they need to not only win but win by big margins to move up the standings. However, this is a horrible spot for them in many ways. For one thing they are off a key win over an Appalachian State team that was undefeated in conference action plus entered the game with an overall 6-1 record on the season. Secondly, the Chanticleers have an 8-1 Liberty team on deck and the Flames have also been a ranked team this season. In the middle of these two games is a 2-9 Bobcats team. I just can't see Coastal Carolina being able to fully focus here and also this game is at Texas State. The weather is expected to be very rainy in San Marcos for this one. Nasty weather generally favors big dogs as it can complicate things for offenses. I still expect Coastal Carolina to win this game but not by a huge margin and this line is up to a 17.5 as of early gameday morning. Yes, the Bobcats defense is an issue but this is a team that can score well and that means they also have backdoor cover potential should it be needed. But I am not expecting it to be necessary as I look for them to hang in tough throughout this game. I also like the fact that Texas State has played a tougher overall schedule and, outside of the SBC, they faced some bigger schools like SMU, Boston College, and BYU. The Bobcats lost by only a single score to the Mustangs and Eagles! By comparison, Coastal Carolina's schedule has been a cakewalk. Texas State enters this game on a 4-0 ATS run. The Bobcats also are scoring an average of 34 points per game in home games this season. 10* TEXAS STATE |
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11-28-20 | Texas Tech +11.5 v. Oklahoma State | 44-50 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #221 Saturday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Noon ET - While the Cowboys are off a deflating loss last week at Oklahoma plus have QB issues, the Red Raiders enter off a bye week and with good news on the QB front. Texas Tech saw Alan Bowman come back and lead the rally versus Baylor two weeks ago. The Red Raiders also still have Henry Colombi available but it is good to see that Bowman appears healthy again. As for the Cowboys, their #2 guy (Shane Illingworth) is out this week due to Covid-19 and that could be a problem. That's because Oklahoma State's #1 (Spencer Sanders) is still dealing with a head injury. That means the Cowboys could very easily end up down to their #3 QB in this game and he is a junior college transfer. It just seems like too many points for OSU to be laying as they could be a little dejected after having lost 2 of 3 games and getting blasted at Oklahoma. The Red Raiders, on the other hand, are surging with momentum after the way they defeated Baylor with no time left on the clock and they also have the extra week of rest entering this game. 8* TEXAS TECH |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #136 Friday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - When this line opened up near a -3 on Notre Dame I fully expected the line might move to near a -7 and that is exactly what happened. It just looks too easy, right? An undefeated team that also has beaten Clemson this season and they are coming off a bye week and facing a 6-2 team with a questionable defense. Of course you know what happens when things look too easy, right? Exactly! I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here. The Tar Heels are off an embarrassing effort on defense versus Wake Forest in their most recent game. However, North Carolina still found a way to win thanks to their dynamic and balanced offense. I feel strongly that the UNC defense is going to be much better in this game as they bring their 'A game' in this rare opportunity to host one of the top teams in the nation. At Chapel Hill on Saturday, look for the Tar Heels to find a way in this one. North Carolina is averaging 43 points per game this season and has scored more than 40 in 4 straight games. More of the same expected here. The vaunted Notre Dame defense has allowed 35.5 points per game their last two games and will be heavily tested in this game. Don't be surprised if the Irish are handed their first loss of the season in this one. Even if not an outright upset, I expect the Tar Heels (only 2 losses by 3 points each this season) to stay inside the number here. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions +3 | 41-25 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #122 Thursday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Houston Texans @ 12:30 ET - Great situational spot. The Texans are off an upset win over the Patriots and the Lions are off a shutout loss at Carolina. Detroit will respond here at home and Houston, now on the road, will fall flat. Note that the Texans caught New England at the perfect time for an upset as NE had just upset the Ravens at home in a primetime game! Prior to that win the only other wins Houston has the season both came against Jacksonville. Not only are the Jaguars just 1-9 this season but one of those wins came by just 2 points. You can see why I like having the +3 with the home dog Lions in this one. Detroit should get some guys back on offense that missed Sunday's game against the Panthers. Additionally, the Texans have the Colts on deck. That is a huge division rival for Houston and they knocked them out of the playoffs the year before last season. Great situational spot for Detroit in this one and the Lions drop Houston to 3-9 ATS their last 12 games. 8* DETROIT |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | 35-31 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #471 Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - Big time revenge game for the Chiefs. Being able to get them at a -7 has me in play here. Yes I know it is a road game and laying a TD on the road can be a bit dangerous but the Chiefs had dominated in the Raiders for an extended stretch, including 3 most recent wins by an average margin of 27 points per game, before losing earlier season. That loss last month also came at home and there has been some banter about the Raiders enjoying a little extra celebration time after that game at Kansas City. The Chiefs, including head coach Andy Reid, have not forgotten. Now I know the Raiders are looking much improved this season but that upset win for Las Vegas was part of a 1-3 stretch that saw them lose the other 3 games by an average margin of 16 points per game. Since then the Raiders have played better with now 3 straight wins. But they took advantage of facing the Browns in Cleveland in a windstorm with chilly rain and sleet. Then they faced the Chargers and Broncos in back to back weeks and those teams are now a combined 5-13 SU on the season! Las Vegas goes from facing those type of division rivals to not only facing the top team in their division but also the Super Bowl Champions! Not only that but the Chiefs are angry! I just can't see this going well for the Raiders. Keep in mind that is the only loss that KC has this season. Also, they are 4-0 on the road this season and their last 3 road wins have come by an average margin of 16.7 points per game. This one has the makings of a road rout. Lay it! 8* KANSAS CITY |
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11-22-20 | Eagles +3 v. Browns | 17-22 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - In NFL in particular, more than any other sport, I like to fade trap lines. The fact is, this game looks like a trap game doesn't it? The Browns are on a 6-2 SU run and plus are 4-1 SU at home this season and yet they opened up as only a field goal favorite against an Eagles team which has won just 3 of its 9 games. The markets also remember that Philadelphia just played a horrible game at New York against the Giants last week. So, what is there to like about the Eagles here? Well they have performed well as a dog in this situation. Philadelphia is 8-4 ATS the last 12 times they have been a road dog in a non-divisional game. Also, the Eagles did open up this season on an 0-2-1 SU / 0-3 ATS run. But, since September, Philadelphia has not had back to back ATS losses. In other words, off the embarrassing performance against the Giants, don't be surprised if they respond again with a big effort when others least expect it. Again, the Browns are 4-1 SU at home on the season and the overall hotter team. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this season. The books now have this line at just a -2.5 on Cleveland in most shops. That doesn't make sense does it? Exactly! Upset alert! Grab the points! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #396 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 3:30 ET - This is fantastic line value on an undefeated home dog. Yes the Badgers are 2-0 but they faced a very bad Illinois team and a Michigan team that is in a world of hurt this season. Last week Wisconsin phenom QB Mertz, who absolutely is going to be a success story long-term, did start the game 1 for 5 and looked a bit "off" which is what I expected for the young QB's first road start. However, the good news for Mertz was that he was facing a Michigan team that it only takes one mistake from them to completely unravel. Indeed the Wolverines immediately turned the ball over a few times and the rest was history in yet another embarrassment for Harbaugh's team in Ann Arbor. The point is that neither the Badgers nor Mertz have really been tested by a strong defense. That changes this week. Northwestern is allowing just 14 points per game this season. Now one could argue that their schedule hasn't been overly tough either but they have won a pair of road games and have 4 games under their belt compared to the Badgers having just 2 because of covid issues this season. Also, the Wildcats did allow just 335.7 yards per game last season to rank in the top 25 defenses in the nation and so this is not a fluke what we've seen from them this season. The offense will struggle some against a very strong Wisconsin defense but to get 7.5 points here as a home dog going against a young QB still getting his feet wet on the Big Ten road is something I won't pass up. The Cats offensive attack has been balanced so far this season between the run and the pass and they have averaged 427 yards per game in their two home games. Even if they don't do enough for the outright upset here they absolutely should do enough for the all important cover. 8* NORTHWESTERN |
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11-21-20 | Iowa +1.5 v. Penn State | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #333 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - What is Penn State playing for here? Pride? You think the Nittany Lions will be a proud team if they run the table and finish the season 4-4? Mind you this was a season they were suppose to possibly even challenge for the CFB championship! I know the Nittany Lions looked good after Will Levis replaced starter Sean Clifford at QB last week at Nebraska but it is not hard to look better when you come into a game your trailing 27-6 and the other team's defense (not a great one mind you) has laid back a bit at that point. Plus Levis only completed 14 of 31 passes. No matter who is at a QB here for PSU, the problems remain. This team this season looks like a poorly coached turnover machine. Not only has Penn State had 9 turnovers in their 4 games this season, they also have forced just ONE turnover in their last 3 games combined. Now they face a tough Iowa defense and the Hawkeyes have forced 8 turnovers in their last 3 games! Iowa also has revenge from losing each of the past two seasons to the Nittany Lions and that includes a home loss last season. They lost that game because of a 2-0 turnover deficit but the way this season is going that turnover battle is highly likely to go the other way in this one. With Penn State 0-4 SU and ATS this season and the Hawkeyes off back to back wins and covers by a combined score of 84-14, there is only one way to go in this game in my opinion. The Hawkeyes are allowing 14.8 points per game this season. The Nittany Lions have allowed at least 30 points in all 4 of their games. PSU has played the tougher schedule but there is not that much of a disparity to justify this line being where it is. Until Penn State proves they can win a game they are an automatic fade in my book with what I have seen on the field from these guys this season. 8* IOWA |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida +5.5 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #344 Saturday 10* Central Florida Knights (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats have a fantastic defense and are having a great season. With an ultra-talented defense like Cincinnati has it is going to take a very special offense to do any damage against them. That said, welcome to Central Florida! Not only do the Knights play very fast on offense they also are extremely dangerous with tremendous big play capabilities. Also, UCF should have beaten the Bearcats last season but they were done in by 4 turnovers. The Knights put up 423 yards of offense but lost by 3 points and that game was at Cincinnati. The turnovers were the difference in the game. Clearly UCF has played the tougher schedule so far this season and that is why we're getting line value here too with the Knights as a home dog. Everyone sees the undefeated Bearcats on the road and having obliterated teams but this is a match-up that will give them issues for sure. Cincinnati's friendly schedule thus far includes the fact that they have been on the road only one time this season. Though the Bearcats won big at SMU in their lone road game, they actually had just 17 first downs in that game while the Mustangs had 22. Cincinnati is absolutely a very good team but they have had it quite easy so far this season with scheduling and all the breaks seeming to go their way too. That ends here on Saturday and the Knights return the favor after losing at Cincinnati last season in a game they should not have lost - UCF outgained them by 82 yards. Payback time here. The Knights are averaging an insane 619 yards of offense per game. 10* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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11-18-20 | Toledo -6.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #311 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7 ET - Toledo has dominated this series in recent years in terms of SU wins. However, Eastern Michigan has actually covered 4 straight games in this series. The last 3 meetings have all been decided by 5 or less points. Given the above, this line might seem too high. But this is where I use history like that to my advantage because it is helping to keep this line lower than it should be actually. Toledo is the much better team on both sides of the ball and the Rockets very motivated after an unreal loss at Western Michigan last week. In that game the Broncos scored 13 points in the final 45 seconds to miraculously win the game. The Rockets looked like the better team for nearly the entirety of that game. Toledo is averaging 512.5 yards per game and allowing only 352 yards per game. The Eagles are averaging just 389.5 yards per game and allowing a whopping 483.5 yards per game. The last time these teams met here in Ypsilanti, MI the Rockets fell behind 28-3 at the half in the 28-26 loss. That rally fell short but Toledo has been reminded of that game coming into this one. It is the only loss the Rockets have in the last 13 meetings with Eastern Michigan! It is payback time on Wednesday. 10* TOLEDO |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +31.5 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #304 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons (+) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the 2018 MAC Championship Game. What does that have to do with this play? Bear with me for a minute here. The Bulls began this season with a revenge win over the Huskies two weeks ago. Then last week Buffalo beat Miami (Ohio) and on deck after this game is Kent State and then Ohio University. What do the Redhawks, Golden Flashes, and Bobcats have in common? They were the teams that handed the Bulls their only 3 MAC losses last season. The point is that of the Bulls first 5 games in this compacted MAC season, 4 of them are revenge games. The only one that isn't is this game against a Falcons team they have pummeled by an average margin of 36 points per game in the last two meetings. That said, this line is about where I would expect it to be considering the Bulls won by 30 in their last visit here. However, given the circumstances, this point spread is likely to prove to be too much. Buffalo wins big here but not big enough! Bowling Green is off back to back embarrassing losses to start the season. But the fact the Falcons are at home and off an absolute stinker in their home opener for this season means you can expect a big response from Bowling Green here. This is a flat spot for the Bulls whereas the Falcons are off a beating by a 38 point margin at Perry Stadium. In other words, embarrassment in your own house. They'll still struggle here because the Bulls are certainly the much better team. But I could see Buffalo "going through the motions" in this one while I have no doubt the Falcons "come to play" after the way their season has started. 10* BOWLING GREEN |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 - I'll gladly fade the line move here and go with the home dog in Monday night action in a big divisional match-up. The Vikings are on a bit of a surge now including a recent win over the Packers. However, Minnesota was actually outgained by 76 yards in that game plus they caught Green Bay off back to back road games. It was a bit of a tough spot for the Pack. Still let's give credit where credit is due but that was just one win for Minnesota and they actually lost the stats battle in that game. In terms of the other wins this season, they have come against teams with a combined record of 6-12 SU on the season. Now the Vikings are on the road facing a Bears team that has beaten them 4 straight times. Not only that, Chicago is off a game in which they outgained the Titans by 147 yards but lost on the scoreboard. Keep in mind that game was at Tennessee and they are 6-3 on the season. In terms of other tough match-ups this season the Bears did beat the Buccaneers (now 7-3 on the season) and lost to the Saints (7-2 on the season) on a field goal in OT. The point is that there is solid line value here with a Bears team that has proven it can play with tough teams and this is especially true when they are now catching as much as 3.5 points as a home dog in a divisional match-up against a team whose number they have had. The Vikings have been really hot ATS but the Bears are off an ATS loss and have gone 3-0 ATS this season when in that situation. I also like the Chicago defense (335.1 ypg) much more than the Vikings defense (412.9 ypg) this season. Will be chilly and potentially breezy too in the Windy City tonight and that adds even more value to the defensive-minded home dog in this one. The Vikings running attack has been great this season but the Bears are allowing an average of just 18.5 points per game in regulation time of their home games this season. Also, the Bears just faced a tough running team at Tennessee and they held the Titans to just 92 yards on the ground and only 3 yards per carry. Give me the home dog in this one. 10* CHICAGO |
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11-15-20 | Broncos +4 v. Raiders | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:05 ET - The Broncos are off a loss at Atlanta but that was a horrible spot for them. They were off miraculous last 2nd home win over the Chargers. That left them flat for the game with the Falcons and especially because it was a divisional sandwich. Yes, after facing the Chargers it was another division rival (Raiders) on deck following the trip to Atlanta. Sure enough Denver fell flat but now they respond here. I feel Las Vegas is a little over-rated right now. The Raiders are such a bad team defensively but caught a break with facing the Chargers last week as Los Angeles still couldn't get over the unreal loss at Denver the prior week. Additionally, the Raiders other recent win was at Cleveland where their defense was helped by playing the game in horrible weather conditions that limited both offenses. Prior to these two wins, Las Vegas had lost 3 of 4 and I feel strongly that they are fortunate to be 5-3 on the season. As for the Broncos, they had won 3 of 4 prior to last week's loss and they are definitely the better defense in this match-up and are flying under the radar a bit right now because they started the season 0-3 whereas the Raiders started the season 2-0. Public perception heavily favors the Raiders in this one and yet the line has moved toward the Broncos in this one. That is sharp money in my opinion and will include some of mine too on Sunday. I am aware of the recent home dominance trend in this series but the Raiders have allowed 33 points per game in their new home and lost plus failed to cover each of their last two games in Vegas. The Broncos were 3-0 ATS on the road this season before last week's loss and again that was a huge flat spot for them. They will not be flat here. 10* DENVER |
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11-15-20 | Eagles -4 v. Giants | 17-27 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Early Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #259 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles are off their bye week and healthier than they have been in quite some time. When these teams met in Philly 3 weeks ago the line was very nearly identical to the line on today's game which is a road game for Philadelphia. That would make it seem like there is some kind of mistake here. Of course long-time followers know how I feel about mistakes by the oddsmakers particularly in the NFL. The fact is I have a ton of respect for the oddsmakers and this is no mistake line here. The Eagles are in a great situation here coming off their bye week while the Giants are playing for the 3rd time in 14 days because they also had a Monday night game prior to last week's game which was a hard-fought road win over the Redskins. I do respect the Giants defense but this is also a team that was 1-7 SU on the season prior to last week's win and they finally have their bye next week. Look for it to be a week too late for the Giants as the Eagles pull away for a road rout in this one and defeat the Giants for the 8th straight time in the last 8 meetings. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-14-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan +6.5 | Top | 49-11 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #162 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7:30 ET - The contrarian theme continues. Everyone loves the Badgers this week. I used them for a big play in their opening game win over Illinois (an easy win) so I know plenty about how good this Wisconsin team can be. However, I also know that the Illini are a very bad football team, the Badgers have been dealing with covid-19 issues and haven't played in a game in 3 weeks, and that the Wolverines are a much better team than they've shown so far this season. They did lose last week at Indiana but had 344 passing yards but were done in by a pair of a interceptions. The Hoosiers are now 3-0 on the season and also beat a talented (though struggling) Penn State team. In other words the "atrocities" of losing to Indiana and Michigan State (almost always a tough rivalry game) may be getting a bit overplayed with regards to this Michigan team. The Wolverines did outgain the Spartans in the lost and, again, it is a huge rivalry game in which Michigan State almost always seems to step up their game to their highest level no matter how much more talented Michigan is than they are. I know the Badgers Graham Mertz is a very talented QB and comes highly regarded (and deserves it) but if you think after 3 weeks off and valuable practice time lost due to covid-19, that he will go to Michigan and do the same thing he did against Illinois at home in Madison, you don't know football. The Wolverines are well aware of being disrespected heading into this game and they have heard all about the talented phenom Mertz and this defense will have its ears pinned back for this one. Don't forget too that Wisconsin really didn't run the ball that well against Illinois either. That is not a good sign for this game. If the Badgers can't establish the run against the Big Blue defense a ton of pressure will be on Mertz to win this game. On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines have the talent to move the ball down the field and are averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game! The Badgers go from facing a very weak Illini offense to facing a team that, when it comes to play, is quite talented on offense. I fully expect an "A game" effort from Michigan in their own house here as they lost their only other game here this season plus have revenge from losing by 21 in Madison last year. When considering that plus the huge line move toward Wisconsin here, we have line value that is absolutely "off the charts" for this one. 10* MICHIGAN |
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11-14-20 | TCU +3 v. West Virginia | 6-24 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #141 Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs (+) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ Noon ET - It looks easy, right? Just take the home team with the better record and the better defensive numbers laying only a field goal? In typical contrarian fashion, I am on other side here. Give me the dog no one will want. Why? For one thing, the Horned Frogs have played the tougher schedule. The Mountaineers opened up their season with Eastern Kentucky. Also, West Virginia's last two games of this season are against Oklahoma and at Iowa State. Those are a pair of tough 5-2 teams which the Horned Frogs have already had to face. Lets talk then about teams that each team already has faced. The Mountaineers have lost two of their last three games and those defeats came at the hands of Texas and Texas Tech. TCU beat both of those teams and that included beating the Red Raiders by 16 and beating the Longhorns in Austin! In fact, the Horned Frogs are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS this season in road games and I fully expect those trends to continue here as the strength of schedule factor is a big one favoring the road dog in this one. It is also a revenge game as West Virginia beat them in Fort Worth last season (despite TCU winning the yardage battle) and the Horned Frogs were a 14 point favorite in that one. Payback today! 8* TCU |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina +28 v. Cincinnati | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Friday 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7:30 ET - This is a potential flat spot for the Bearcats. Of course I expect Cincinnati to win this game and, perhaps, even handily. But winning a game handily or comfortably doesn't mean covering a 4-TD spread. I expect about a two TD margin here which means we have a lot of cushion to work with. Cincinnati is off 3 straight big games against tougher opponents plus has a tough game on deck at Central Florida. A game against the fast-paced Knights, and a game that is at UCF no less, is the one that could trip up the undefeated Bearcats. That said, there is no doubt that upcoming game is on the minds of Cincinnati at least to an extent and it doesn't take much to throw a team off that has to be firing on all cylinders to cover this enormous spread. Keep in mind, the game between these teams last season was decided by just 3 points. Also, in the Bearcats 4 home games against FBS schools this season they have averaged 34.8 points per game. The Pirates are averaging 29.2 points per game this season and have not been held below 21 points in any of their 6 games. Now, of course, I am well aware that the Bearcats defense is much better than the East Carolina defense but the point is that the Pirates offense is a pretty solid unit and if Cincy just loses a little focus for this game it will be closer than many are expecting. If the Bearcats do eventually pull away it will hard to pull away by a lot and the Pirates talented offense means they have a great shot at backdoor cover - should one even be needed! In an otherwise disappointing campaign, this is a chance for East Carolina to make some noise on center stage on a Friday Night game on ESPN. The Pirates are certainly well aware that they are 1-5 and Cincinnati is 6-0 on the season and ranked in the top ten in the nation so look for an "A game" effort from the big dog in this one! 10* EAST CAROLINA |
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