Cappers Sports Picks

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Wildcats have changed the way they play this year. Sean Miller realizes that with the type of team they have, they need to speed things up and get their opponent on the defensive in transition. Arizona is so athletic that it will be hard for Arizona State to keep them out of the paint. Arizona State's offense has been very good this year, and the Sun Devils are playing quickly so far this year as well. I had this game set at 138 points. 

The over is 5-0 in Arizona State's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 10-1 in Arizona State's last 11 road games. The over is 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 home games vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower on the road. The over is 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 32-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers and the Loyola Chicago Ramblers are actually quite similar teams. They are both extremely good at slowing the game down and winning with ball control. Both of them have played multiple games this year that stayed below 100 points. There won't be many turnovers here, but there will be a lot of the shot clock running below 10 seconds before a shot goes up. I had this one at 111. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have played 12 games against Division I opponents this year. The highest total score in those games was 126 points. They have been under this total 11 of 12 times. UAB likes to play fast if they can, but they won't dictate the tempo against MTSU, and the UAB offense is very inefficient. This should be a sloppy game with MTSU's defense playing well. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels are great at dictating the tempo, and getting Siena to play fast is no difficult task with their new coach Jimmy Patsos at the helm. I made this number 167. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Wyoming Cowboys play at the second slowest tempo out of 351 teams in the nation. San Jose State is now playing with zero of their original starting five for the season because of tons of injuries and several suspensions. San Jose State is so thin that they have asked players from the football team to play on the basketball team at this point. That lack of depth has made the team slow the game down in a big way of late. San Jose State scored only 33 points in their last game. This game should be extremely ugly. I had this total at 104 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Carolina does a really nice job of speeding the game up regardless of the type of team they are playing against. Brad Brownell's Clemson team plays at a slow pace normally, but past history between these two teams shows that UNC is one of the rare teams that can speed the game up vs. Clemson. Clemson is actually playing faster than they have in any of the last four seasons, so I think this number is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LSU Tigers will absolutely destroy Savannah State in this game. The thing that makes me like this total is the pace at which this game will be played. Savannah State isn't the type of team that slows a game down. Savannah State is extremely sloppy with the basketball, and they are allowing their opponent to score at an alarmingly high rate. LSU should get to 90 points or so here if they stay committed to their normal game plan. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Cavaliers have both made me a lot of money on the under in the last few years. Both of these teams really play good halfcourt defense. They are both really well coached teams. The tempo here should be extremely slow as both teams always work hard to slow the game down. I had this number at 113 points. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Davidson Wildcats do a really good job of getting the tempo to what they want it. Richmond will attempt to slow the game down, but Davidson's quick tempo and efficiency on offense should push this one over the posted total. I had 137 points on this one. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* My line here was 150. My biggest play of the college hoops season thus far. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils do a nice job of pushing the tempo and I don't think they'll let Boston College slow this one down enough to keep it below the posted total. Duke's inside game is really good now, and they should put up a big number here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* 

*4 Star Play Over* The Depaul Blue Demons defense is just awful, and Xavier has been one of the most efficient offenses in the country. DePaul speeds up the tempo by using a full court press, and Xavier will be happy to be running in this one. The Musketeers should put up a big number here. The tempo gets this one above the total. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

*5 Star NCAA BB TGIF TOP Play* The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks play faster than any other team in the country. There are 351 teams in Division I college basketball, but Nebraska Omaha ranks number one in terms of pace. They are going to turn every game into a fast paced affair. South Dakota plays pretty quick as well, and I don't see them attempting to change the way they play for this game. Both of these teams are playing faster than they did last year, and the two meetings last year finished with 150 points (and bad shooting numbers) and 173 points. I expected the posted total here to be at least 160 points. Plenty of value here on the over. Take the over big! 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Siena Saints are a team I like to play the over with. They use full court pressure to speed the game up, and because of that they commit a bunch of fouls. Siena sends opponents to the line more than all about three other teams in the nation. The Saints are also really aggressive on offense, getting to the line at a very high rate. Fairfield has played a lot of teams that play at a slow tempo lately, so their recent games are a bit misleading. Siena should be able to speed this team up. A total set this low isn't hard to reach when both teams are taking a lot of trips to the free throw line. Take the over big! 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are great at turning a game into a really high scoring affair. Southern Utah pushes the tempo really well. They average about 70 possessions per game, which is four possessions more than the overall NCAA average. They also foul like crazy, sending their opponents to the free throw line at a ridiculously high rate. Their terrible defense can really make the opposing offense look far better than they truly are. Portland State likes to play quickly as well. The Vikings have had some problems scoring this year, but I think Southern Utah's defense will fix those problems. Portland State is great at getting to the line a lot, which is key against a team like Southern Utah that fouls a bunch to start with. 

The over is 6-0 in Southern Utah's last 6 Thursday games. The over is 7-0 in Southern Utah's last 7 following a loss. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in Portland State's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 27-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Idaho Vandals and Idaho State Bengals meet in a rivalry game in Idaho tonight. Idaho State has played a lot of low scoring games this year, but they haven't played many teams with a defense as bad as Idaho's. The Vandals have increased the tempo in a big way from last season to this season. Idaho shoots it at 40% from long range as well, which means they can really pile up the points quickly. Idaho State's defense has historically been very bad, and I think Idaho will score a lot tonight. Idaho has played in nine games against Division I opponents so far this year and all nine of those games have gone over this posted total. Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Northern Iowa Panthers do a really nice job dictating the way the game is played. Northern Iowa slows the game down. Northern Iowa is actually playing at the fourth slowest pace of any team in the nation (351 teams). The Panthers also have a very good defense, so they play in a lot of low scoring games. They have played in three overtime games, which has made their final scores look higher than they should have been otherwise. Evansville hasn't played a defense as good as Northern Iowa yet this year. I think both teams will have to work hard for buckets here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Xavier Musketeers and Georgetown Hoyas have both changed up the way they play this year. Georgetown has typically been a slow it down type of team. The Hoyas have more offensive weapons this year, and that has led them to pick up the tempo and play higher scoring games. Xavier has played relatively quick in the past, but they are playing faster this year and being even more efficient. Neither of these teams have been particularly good on defense this year. The over is 12-3-1 in Georgetown's last 16 road games. I had this number at 144 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Big 10 Total* The Purdue Boilermakers and Minnesota Golden Gophers are two of the fastest paced teams in the Big Ten. Richard Pitino's team has upped the tempo in a big way this year, and they have had a lot of success from it. I don't expect them to go away from that tempo change. Their full court pressure should bother Purdue's young guards. At the same time, Minnesota gives up plenty of easy buckets because of their press as well. The Boilermakers aren't good defensively, and Minnesota's offensive efficiency has been tremendous in recent games. I had this number at 153 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The over is 13-6 in the Toledo Rockets last 19 games. Toledo plays fast no matter who they play against. Duke will be more than happy to play quickly here. The Blue Devils offense is also ranked number one in the nation in offensive efficiency. Duke can pile up the points in a hurry. Toledo's defense hasn't been good in the past few years, and they'll give up a bunch of points here. I think Duke gets to at least 90 points here, and the pace of the game should lead to Toledo scoring plenty too. The Rockets have several good scoring options. I had this number at 152. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Denver Nuggets offense has been off the mark lately. Denver likes to play fast, but their efficiency on the offensive end has been really low in recent games. Since Gallinari went down with an injury, this team lost a key offensive contributor. Toronto is very good offensively, but they have slowed down their tempo since DeRozan went down with an injury. The Raptors are playing the second game of a back to back situation here in the altitude in Denver. Toronto is likely to play even slower tonight than they normally do. Both teams defenses have improved in recent weeks. This total is a few points too high.

The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 playing on 1 day of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 after allowing more than 100 points last game. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after scoring more than 100 points last game. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder meet in a key showdown of two of the best teams in the Western Conference tonight. Rajon Rondo brings another element to this Dallas team. While most people are focusing solely on his offense, Rondo improves this team defensively as well. Oklahoma City has been playing some lights out defense in recent games. The Thunder rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. While both of these teams are clearly capable of scoring a lot, neither team plays particularly fast and this is a very high total. James Williams is one of the refs in this game, and he has been one of the most consistent under referees in the league. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Illinois Fighting Illini have beat up on lower opponents this year. Illinois has scored at least 88 points in four games against really bad opponents. I think they get up around that number again against a Kennesaw State team that likes to run and gun. Kennesaw State has allowed 89 points or more against all three top 50 teams they have played this year. Illinois is a top 50 team. The pace should be plenty quick in this one, so unless the shooting numbers are particularly low I see this one going over. I had this total at 144 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total Takedown* The Utah Jazz play at the third slowest tempo in the NBA. Philadelphia likes to play fast, but they are playing a possession or so slower than they did earlier this year. The 76ers are the least efficient offense in the NBA, and it's not even close. Quietly though, the 76ers are starting to play good defense. Philadelphia is 12th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they are in the top 10 for the past month. I believe that gives some value to the under in certain spots for the 76ers, and this is one of those spots. This should be a sloppy game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers are both offensively challenged this year. Both of them are improved of late on the defensive end though. Both of these teams rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past month. Brooklyn's tempo has slowed drastically with a new coach and a different scheme. Indiana has always been a slow it down type team that plays good defense with Frank Vogel at the helm. There's an angle here that I like quite a bit. The under is a perfect 9-0 in the Nets last 9 games after giving up 100 points or more in their last game. Look for both defenses to clamp down here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Brooklyn Nets have really slowed the tempo down in the last couple weeks. This is a team with a lot of older players, and they have a coach who prefers to play grind it out style games. Without Deron Williams in the lineup, Brooklyn doesn't have a point guard who wants to push the ball. Denver looked totally gassed last night in their big loss at Charlotte, and I can't imagine they'll look much better tonight. Without Gallinari, the Nuggets scoring options are reduced significantly. Two of the three referees assigned to this game are solid under referees. 

The under is 6-0-1 in the Nuggets last 7 after allowing 100 points or more last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent has scored 100 points or more last game. The under is 5-0 in Brooklyn's last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more last game. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Seton Hall Pirates have a young very talented team that has opened some eyes early this year. The Pirates are playing faster with their improved athleticism this season. Georgia has picked up the pace in a big way from last season. Mark Fox has the Bulldogs trying to get out and run. I feel like this line is set at a level where it should have been if these teams were playing last year rather than this year. Both offenses have gotten better and both teams are playing faster. I had this number at 142.5. The increased pace should make the difference here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Northern Iowa Panthers are great at controlling the tempo. Iowa likes to play fast, but the Hawkeyes have had lots of trouble scoring against top teams this year. It's important to note that this game is being played at a neutral location, which generally lowers scoring totals a bit. Neither team is accustomed to the shooting backdrops, and that can lead to lower shooting percentages. Iowa has gotten much worse on offense this season compared to last year, but they are also playing much better defense this year. Northern Iowa relies on outside shooting, and I think the Hawkeyes will do a nice job of contesting their long range jumpers. I had this total at 127 points. Take the under.  

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic have changed in a big way since they got Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup. The tempo that Orlando plays at drastically slowed down. The Magic defense gets much better with a shot blocker at the back of the defense. Utah plays at the third slowest tempo of anyone in the NBA. Both of these teams rank in the bottom ten teams in the NBA in terms of offensive efficiency as well. Earlier this year, these two played to a final score of 98-93, and that was before Orlando got Vucevic back. The tempo should be even slower here. I had this number at 188 points. The under is 6-1 in the Magic's last 7 games on one day of rest. The under is 24-9 in their last 33 vs. a Western Conference team. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA on TNT Totals MONEY* The Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks meet tonight. Chicago beat New York 104-80 in the first game between these two. The posted total in that game was 184 points, so it finished a push. The posted total here has jumped by 7.5 points. I realize the Bulls are playing faster than they have in the past, but this jump is just too much. New York plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose are both listed as questionable for this one. Anthony is struggling with a knee injury, and he sounded less than optimistic about his chances of playing tonight. If he doesn't play, the Knicks have some even more severe issues on offense. J.R. Smith won't play here either, and the Knicks certainly aren't filled with scoring options. This seems like a spot where New York could struggle to get past 85 points or so. Rose is less than 100 percent even if he does play, and that should slow the game down a bit. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Portland Trail Blazers have impressed me with their defensive intensity so far this year. Portland primarily won by outscoring their opponent last year, but this season Portland has been very good on the defensive end. Milwaukee is also ranked in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bucks lost Jabari Parker to a season ending knee injury. This is their first game playing without him, and I think that will change the offense and hurt them until they get accustomed to playing without him. Losing a key player like that can take a few games to adjust to. I made this total 199 points. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Stanford Cardinal have been playing against a lot of teams that like to slow the game down this year. That has made Stanford's pace numbers look a lot slower than they really should be. In general, Stanford is a team that prefers to run if given the opportunity. Loyola Marymount is pushing the pace under their new coach this year, and the Lions defense isn't good at all. This is a good chance for guys like Randle and Nastic to put up some big numbers. I had this number at 141 points. Recency bias from the oddsmakers has given us a nice value here. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total BLOWOUT* The Cincinnati Bearcats have been an under team for a couple years now. Last year, Cincinnati was a team that didn't necessarily stall, but they did have a very bad offense and a great defense. Now, Mick Cronin's team has decided to slow things down a lot so far this year. They are using up the shot clock a lot more this year. San Diego State is the same type of team. The Aztecs aren't good at all offensively, but they are tremendous on the defensive end. San Diego State also uses up the entire shot clock most of the time.

Aqeel Quinn went down with an injury recently, and that made the Aztecs offense much worse. Other than Winston Shepard the Aztecs don't have any good scoring options. If you like offense, I don't think you're going to like this game. Two of the best defensive coaches in college basketball here. The under is a whopping 44-11 in Cincinnati's last 55 games overall. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 Wednesday games. The under is 7-1 in San Diego State's last 8 Wednesday games. A 61-13 trend backing this play. Take the under big! 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Orlando Magic are playing at a much slower pace since Vucevic returned to the lineup. He's a big guy who can score down low as well as protect the basket on defense. It's become apparent that Coach Vaughn has decided the Magic have a better chance of winning by slowing things down now, and so far that has proven to be true. While the Celtics do love to run, both of these teams have been much improved on the defensive end. They both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past two weeks. Neither of these teams is efficient at all on the offensive end. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Illinois Fighting Illini have made it known so far this year that they aren't afraid of running up the score when they are given the opportunity. Illinois should get that chance tonight against Hampton. Hampton isn't a good team, but they like to run and push the tempo. That plays right into what Illinois wants to do. Against the worst teams they have played so far this year Illinois has put up massive point totals. They scored 114 against Coppin State and 107 against Austin Peay. They scored 89 against Brown and 88 against Indiana State. I think the Illini put up a big number again here and the pace should help Hampton put up plenty to get us to the over. I had this number set at 145 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Marquette Golden Eagles are slowing the tempo down under their new coach. Arizona State is slowing things back down this year as well. In the past few years, the Sun Devils played fast because they had a star in Jahii Carson running the show. Without him at the helm, Coach Sendak has decided to turn the tempo back down again. Both of these defenses will work hard in this one, and I think this should be a close back and forth game where the offenses struggle to get going. Look for this game to stay in the 120's. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Wichita State Shockers play some very good defense. Gregg Marshall's team makes the opposition work extremely hard to get shots, and then the Shockers also do a tremendous job of grabbing the defensive rebound. Alabama has tried to speed up the tempo of the game this year, but the Shockers are generally very good at playing to their pace. Wichita State plays relatively slowly and I think them being the home team here helps them control the tempo. Alabama's offense is unlikely to be efficient against the best defense they have faced all year long. Alabama has typically been a good defensive team as well under Coach Anthony Grant. I made this total 137 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors meet in a battle of two of the best teams in the NBA tonight. I expect both teams to be ready for this one. Memphis has some very good perimeter defenders in Tony Allen and Mike Conley. Look for those guys to make it their mission to make Golden State's stars take tougher shots than normal. Golden State is usually thought of as a very high scoring team that wins with offense. They can definitely score, but their defense has been the reason they are on an amazing win streak. The Warriors are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies are seventh. Memphis will try to slow this game down. A total set this high is generally reserved for two teams looking to push it or two bad defenses. Those things aren't true here.

The last nine meetings between these two teams have finished below this posted total. I look for this to be the 10th. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The North Carolina Tar Heels are very good at imposing their will as far as the pace of the game. UNC Greensboro is going to get demolished on the glass in this one. The Tar Heels have been one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and offensive putbacks will be huge for them in this game. The Spartans get a rare chance at home to play a big name school from their own state, and they should be hyped up for this one too. I think that leads to them playing pretty quick and likely getting ahead of themselves and turning it over for some easy buckets for the Tar Heels. North Carolina hangs a big number on the Spartans in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Memphis Grizzlies beat the Charlotte Hornets in double overtime on Friday night. I can't imagine they will be too fired up to run up the score as much as they could on the 76ers on Saturday night. Philadelphia is quietly playing a little better of late. What has changed? The 76ers are starting to play much better defense. Philadelphia actually ranks in the top half of the NBA in defense. Memphis ranks in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The 76ers still play relatively fast, but they have slowed down the tempo a bit compared to last year. Memphis is once again one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Some of the 76ers recent games have been very low scoring. This total is a few points too high.

The under is 7-0 in the Grizzlies last 7 games when playing on zero days of rest. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been really good on defense all year. Minnesota likes to run, but they are extremely inefficient on offense. I think their offensive woes will be highlighted in this one as Oklahoma City locks things up on the defensive end. Oklahoma City has continued to play at a slower pace even with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook back in the lineup. The three referees in this game definitely lean to the under which is a big help as well. Another interesting note about this game- The posted total here has dropped despite the majority of the public money being on the over. That's a strong signal. The under is 5-0 in OKC's last 5 Friday games. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 following an ATS win. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers are still one of the top ten teams in the league in defensive efficiency. The Clippers are #12 as well, so their defense is better than most realize. Indiana's offense is third worst in the NBA right now, and they don't have much chemistry at all on the offensive end right now. What about the pace of this game? The Clippers average tempo is right at the league average. The Pacers are close to the bottom in terms of tempo. The referees in this one are also helpful. Both Ken Mauer and Haywoode Workman are guys who have consistently been good under referees in the long term. Less fouls in this one could be the difference. The under is 5-1 in the Pacers last 6 home games. This line is a bit inflated. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing zone on almost every possession this year. Zone defenses slow the game down in a big way. Ohio State shot the lights out early on which caused several of their games to be very high scoring. While I do think Ohio State has a good shooting team, I don't see the Buckeyes continuing to shoot 52% from the floor for the whole season. High Point is a relatively good team despite the fact that most people know nothing about them. High Point prefers to slow the game down, and they'll make this a halfcourt game as much as they can. High Point doesn't have good outside shooters, and I think they'll struggle to score against the Buckeyes zone. I made this total 128 points. I would play this one down to as low as 131 points. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Cleveland Cavaliers have decided to slow things down in recent weeks. They have also started playing some defense. They now rank right in the middle of the pack defensively. Earlier this year they were among the worst in the league on the defensive end. Toronto's offense is good, but they aren't nearly as good as they were before DeRozan went down with an injury. Toronto's pace has slowed down a lot without DeRozan pushing the tempo too. A total set this high is generally saved for teams that push the tempo and play very little defense. That isn't true about either of these teams right now. I had this total set at 201.5. The under is an impressive 8-3 in the Cavs last 11 games. The under is 35-16-1 in the last 52 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Iowa State Cyclones love to push the tempo at every opportunity. UMKC is a team that likes to run as well. Neither one of these teams work very hard on the defensive end. Iowa State is very capable of putting up a big number in this one. UMKC already allowed 81 to South Dakota State and 83 against Kansas State. Neither of those teams are even close to as good offensively as Iowa State. I think there's a good chance the Cyclones get 90 points or more in this one. In fact, they have already scored 90 points or more on three occasions this year. The over is 45-20-1 in the Cyclones last 66 games overall, so the oddsmakers have had trouble catching up with how fast this team plays. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* This game will be played at Madison Square Garden, which is one of the biggest reasons I'm playing the under. The shooting backdrop at MSG is tougher than any other gym that these teams will play at all year. Illinois was scoring loads of points earlier this year, but as they start playing tougher teams their point totals are going down pretty quickly. Villanova has impressed me a lot on the defensive end this year. They'll make Illinois work hard for every shot. The Fighting Illini are much improved on the defensive end compared to last year as well. I had this total set at 133.5 points. There's just enough value here to advocate a play. I've done very well taking unders at MSG in the past, and I'll take the under again here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The SMU Mustangs have always been a relatively slow paced team. They are struggling a little more now on the offensive end because they are without Marcus Kennedy on the inside. Kennedy was the team's best low post scorer. SMU now relies primarily on scoring from the outside. UCSB is a disciplined team under Coach Bob Williams. The Gauchos definitely like to slow the game down and work it inside to Alan Williams in the post. SMU does have some good post defenders, and I expect them to be able to neutralize Williams to some degree. I had this number at 123. 

The under is 4-0 in UCSB's last 4 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The North Carolina Tar Heels love to run, and the oddsmakers like to put high totals on their games. Remember though, this North Carolina team is much better defensively than they are on the offensive end. They have a lot of length and athleticism that cause opponents to shoot a poor percentage, but generally the Tar Heels offensive efficiency isn't that great. East Carolina is a team that likes to stall to try to stay in the game. If the Pirates are wise at all, they will be playing some serious stall ball in this game. With one team playing stall ball and the other team playing good defense, a total of 141 points is too high. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers come into this one on plenty of rest, and I think that means some strong defense from the improving Clippers. Though they started the year slowly, this Clippers team is definitely a really talented bunch. New Orleans limps into this game. The Pelicans miss Eric Gordon in a big way. Without Gordon this offense has scored 91 points or less in four of their last five games. Gordon is a guy who puts up 15 points per game when he is healthy, and that's tough to replace. A total set this high typically needs two high scoring offenses. The Clippers can score in bunches, but the Pelicans offense is weakened significantly of late.

The under is 4-1 in the Pelicans last 5 games since Gordon went down with an injury. The under is also 11-5 in the Clippers last 16 vs. a team with a losing road record. That's important because it means the Clippers often flex their muscle on the defensive end in a game like this. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals MONEY* The Savannah State Tigers don't know any way to play other than running and gunning. This Savannah State team isn't good, but they are going to want to run and push the tempo. That plays right into the Indiana Hoosiers hands. Indiana is always more comfortable running in Tom Crean's system. The Hoosiers have scored at least 81 points in each of their last four games. Against a bad team like Savannah State who plays very little defense, Indiana should get well into the 80's easily, and I think 90 points is fairly likely. The tempo here is the key. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA on TNT MONEY* The Golden State Warriors play very fast. Everyone knows the Warriors play fast. What most people don't know is that the Warriors are number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency right now, and second place isn't even close. Steve Kerr has this team playing some amazing defense. New Orleans has a decent offense, but their offense suffered a big blow when Eric Gordon went down with an injury. Their offensive efficiency has been much worse with him out of the lineup. I don't think the Pelicans get very many easy looks tonight. New Orleans will look to slow the game down too, which should help this one. 

The under is 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Warriors last 4 Thursday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0 in the Warriors last 4 home games overall. The under is also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins have shown us that they are going to play as fast as possible this year. All but one of their games so far this year has played out to a tempo of 71 possessions per team or more. That's extremely fast compared to the average in college basketball which is about 67 possessions. UCLA played games at a pace of 78 and 82 earlier this year against poor opponents who like to run. They have another poor opponent in Cal State Fullerton who likes to run. The Titans defense is really bad, and I think UCLA will be able to get good looks all game long. UCLA's interior defense has been poor, and Fullerton has some guys who can get to the rim. Look for a fast paced high scoring game. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Washington State Cougars are a totally different team this year. Ernie Kent took over the team in the offseason, and he wants this team to run all the time. Washington State has generally been a defensive oriented team that slows it down, so the oddsmakers are slow to adjust lines with this Cougars team. Idaho has sped up the tempo a lot in the past couple years as well. The Vandals defense is atrocious (they allowed 83 points last game against Northern Kentucky). Washington State isn't a whole lot better on defense. A fast pace and two bad defenses. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Virginia Cavaliers and Maryland Terrapins were used to meeting each other in conference games, but now they'll be meeting each other in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Maryland is without leading scorer Dez Wells in this one, and that's important because they are playing against a Virginia team that locks it up on the defensive end. The Cavs defense is always one of the best in the country. Virginia is playing even slower tempo wise than they did last year, and they have had some extremely low scoring games so far this year. They haven't allowed more than 56 points in a game all year long. Maryland is slowing things down this year compared to last season as well. I had this one at 116 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a double overtime win. I had them as my play of the week in that game, and they did end up getting there. There's no doubt they put in some extra effort in that game though, and there were a lot of tired Mavericks at the end of that game. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the NBA, but I see them being a little less efficient on tired legs tonight. Milwaukee is 7th in the NBA in total defense, and Jason Kidd's team has been working hard on the defensive end. Neither of these teams play all that fast, so a total of 207 is awfully high. With two teams in the top half of the NBA in total defense and some tired legs, I think this stays under the posted total. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Purdue Boilermakers have a new identity. Matt Painter's teams were previously known for slowing the game down and playing great defense. Now, the Boilermakers are all about running and getting off a bunch of shots. Purdue has had some very high scoring games this year, including some high scoring games against teams who usually play in low scoring contests. The NC State Wolfpack also like to play fast, so I see no reason that this game won't be played at a quick tempo. The over is 4-1 in Purdue's last 5 home games. The over is 5-1 in NC State's last 6 road games. I had this number at 145 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Nets/Knicks Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks offense has been awful of late. New York also plays at the single slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. Brooklyn started out playing fast, but the Nets have slowed down a lot of late. Brooklyn can't play terribly fast because of Brook Lopez. Lopez is one of the reasons Brooklyn is always solid on the defensive end. J.R. Smith is likely to miss this one with an illness, and the Knicks have a hard time scoring to start with. These two teams definitely see this as a real rivalry, and that generally leads to lower scoring games with better defense. The line movement here kept this one from being a top rated play, but my number was 186. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Los Angeles Lakers defense is awful, so taking an under with them is always risky, but the Lakers have showed signs of slowing the game down a bit of late. A total of 206 in a game where one team (Detroit) plays at a very slow pace is definitely worth a look. Detroit hasn't had a game go above 202 in their last nine games. The Pistons are playing improved defense under Stan Van Gundy, but they are a real mess on the offensive end. I had this number at 201 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* This is a really high posted total, but it's really high for a reason. Iona and Arkansas both rank in the top 11 out of 351 college basketball teams in terms of pace. This game should be an all out track meet. Both teams are shooting above 45% on the year thus far from beyond the arc. Both teams use a full court press to push the tempo. Neither one of these teams are very good defensively in the halfcourt either. I made this total 174, so I see enough value to play this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals CASH* The San Antonio Spurs aren't playing as fast on offense as they did last year. What they are doing though is locking opponents down on the defensive end. Indiana has lots of problems scoring right now with injuries depleting them of their best offensive players. The Pacers are going to slow the game down and play their normal gritty defense. The pace should be slower than expected here, and both teams will have to work hard to score. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 Wednesday games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 6-1 in the Spurs last 7 home games. A 16-1 angle here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* Anytime you see an NBA total this low, you have to examine the reasons for that number. Oklahoma City is struggling to find anyone who can score consistently with their ridiculous amount of injury problems. The Thunder have Durant, Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Mitch McGary, Perry Jones, and several others all sidelined. Utah toyed with playing uptempo early this year, but they have slowed down a lot in recent outings. Utah's offense isn't efficient, and it's because they aren't as balanced as most teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City has been excellent on the defensive end at home so far this year. The under is 4-0 in the Thunder's last 4 home games. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Oklahoma City. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic have some serious problems right now. Orlando wasn't any good offensively to start with, and now they have all sorts of injury issues. The Magic are playing without Aaron Gordon for a long time. They are now also without Tobias Harris, who had been their most consistent scorer of late. Harris missed the morning shoot around today, so he is doubtful for tonight's game. Golden State is playing a back to back game here, so I expect them to be a little bit worn down. The Warriors are clearly the much better team and can win this game comfortably, but they might take their foot off the gas a little earlier tonight. The Warriors also have one of the best defenses in the NBA, and the Magic are unlikely to get many open looks here. I think this one stays in the 190's. 

The under is 4-0-1 in Golden State's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Orlando between these teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Kansas State Wildcats have been shooting a very high percentage so far this year. While it's possible Kansas State will be a bit improved from an offensive perspective, they aren't going to keep shooting the lights out every game like they have been recently. Jamie Dixon's Pitt Panthers are always one of the better defensive teams in the country. The Panthers also play at a very slow tempo all the time. Pitt is having significant problems scoring this year, but they stay in the game with their ball control and strong defense. I think this line is inflated due to Kansas State's recent hot shooting. I had this number at 125 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT Total* The Villanova Wildcats impressed me with their defensive intensity on Monday night against VCU. Villanova made the Rams work extremely hard in the halfcourt sets to get looks at the basket. Michigan was amazingly efficient last year on offense, but without Nik Stauskas I expect them to be much worse this season. The Wolverines always want to slow the game down and they should be able to do that here. Villanova looked to be content playing a halfcourt game last night. Also keep in mind that this game is being played at Barclays Center in New York, so this is a neutral venue which generally lowers the shooting percentages. I had this one set at 129. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are going to try their best to slow this game down. They know they don't have the athleticism to run with Creighton. So far this year, Eastern Illinois has been successful in slowing everyone down that they have played against. Creighton also runs a little less than they did last year. More importantly though, Creighton isn't going to be nearly as good on offense without Doug McDermott, Grant Gibbs, Ethan Wragge, and Johans Manigat. This is an offense that has struggled so far this year, and I think the oddsmakers are being slow to adjust their numbers down. I had this one at 130 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego State Aztecs have played some extremely low scoring games so far this year, but most of their opponents have played at a very slow tempo. That will change tonight when they take on BYU. The Cougars are playing at a pace of 75 possessions per game, which is fifth fastest in the nation. San Diego State plays very good defense, but the pure amount of shots that BYU gets in this one should mean the Cougars score quite a few points. The Aztecs offense should also look a lot better when they are going up against a poor defense like BYU. Look for Winston Shephard to have a big game here. I made this total 140 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star VCU/Villanova Total DOMINATION* The VCU Rams can push the tempo as well as anyone in the nation with their "Havoc" full court pressure. While some teams will fight hard to slow the game down, I don't see Villanova being one that does that. The Wildcats like to play fast with their athleticism at all positions. Ryan Arcidiacano is a guard who plays fast and is prone to turnovers at times, which could play into the hands of VCU. Briante Weber's quickness really makes the Rams tough on both ends of the floor. Whoever wins this game is going to have to score a lot of points. Both of these teams have big guys who can run the floor well, which means there is no reason to expect either team will be wanting to slow things down. The tempo should push this one over. Take the over here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* Only five teams in the entire country are playing at a faster tempo than the UCLA Bruins right now. There are 351 teams in college basketball. That tells you how quick the Bruins are playing. The Bruins are loaded with good long range shooters, and they are in a matchup here vs. a Long Beach State team that doesn't play much defense at all. Xavier put up 97 points on Long Beach State earlier this year, and Xavier doesn't have the offensive weapons that UCLA has. Long Beach State has a couple nice scorers in Michael Caffey and Tyler Lamb. The 49ers like to play quickly, and I expect them to put up a good amount of points in this game as well. I made this total 159 points. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of Week* The Florida Atlantic Owls and the Georgia Bulldogs both have a new style of play this year. Michael Curry brings an uptempo system to Florida Atlantic. The Owls haven't been very good on offense so far this year, but they are going to get up a lot of shots in this game. Georgia is playing far faster than they have in recent years. In fact, the Bulldogs are averaging seven possessions more per game compared to last season.

That's an amazing change in just one season. Georgia has scored 73, 80, and 82 points in their three games this year. Against inferior competition they put up 80 and 82 points, and Florida Atlantic definitely doesn't have the same kind of talent that Georgia has. The Bulldogs backcourt is really quick and they'll get to the basket with ease in this game. A total this low is a big play for me with both teams turning up the tempo this year. I made this total 143 points. Take the over big! 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Washington State Cougars aren't any good this year, but they are definitely going to play a lot faster under new coach Ernie Kent. In their first two games, the Cougars have averaged more than 70 possessions, which is a very quick tempo. Idaho State isn't a good team at all, and the Bengals have been particularly bad on defense in the past few seasons. Idaho State is going to make this Washington State offense look a lot better than they are. Lacy is a good scorer for Washington State, and I expect a big game from him. The tempo here should be much quicker than most expect, which is why I see so much value on the over. I had this one at 137 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF NBA Play of Day* The Philadelphia 76ers play at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns are the fourth fastest in the league in terms of tempo. When these two get together, you can certainly expect a track meet. I'll be the first to admit that this Sixers offense is dreadfully bad, so counting on them can be a little hard, but the value here is too much to overlook. These teams played twice last season. The final scores in those two games were 115-101 and 124-113. The posted totals were 216 and 213.5. We are getting this one at a much cheaper price. The Suns love to run, and they'll put up a very big number here led by their great guards. If the Sixers offense can be decent at all, this one goes over the total. Value play here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Michigan State Spartans are playing at a slower tempo this year thanks to their inexperience. Tom Izzo no longer has a veteran leader at the point guard spot. Michigan State is still going to compete hard on the defensive end because Izzo's teams always do that, but I expect them to not only play slower, but also be less efficient on offense. It's hard not to be down after you lose Appling, Harris, and Payne. Loyola has been a team that slows the game down for many years, and I don't see them changing that this season. I had this number pegged at 128. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are playing at an extremely quick tempo this year. While UCLA does lack experience, they aren't lacking in athleticism. That allows them to push the tempo and score in transition at a high rate. Nicholls State clearly has no shot in this game. Nicholls State fouled more than any other team in the nation last year, so UCLA should make a living on the free throw line here. This is a game where UCLA could be pushing the 100 point barrier. Nicholls State likely starts slow, but gets more points in garbage time. I had this one at 156 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona State Sun Devils appear to be slowing the pace down again. With Jahii Carson at the helm the last couple years, Herb Sendek went away from his typical slow tempo. Now that he is gone, Arizona State is back to slowing things down. Loyola Marymount has a new coach and a new slower tempo as well. Arizona State's last game was an ugly 49-39 win. While I certainly don't expect anything like that here, I do think this one is likely to stay in the 120's. Look for a lot of long possessions as the shot clock ticks away. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Arkansas Razorbacks are always one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. They thrive off using defensive pressure to create transition opportunities. Arkansas has athleticism and quickness at all positions this year, and I expect some very high scoring games for the Razorbacks. Wake Forest hasn't been fast in the past, but they have a new coach in Danny Manning. Manning has them playing at a much quicker tempo. The Demon Deacons aren't likely to slow this game down. It probably won't even take good shooting numbers to see this one go over the total. Uptempo all the way here with shots in the first 10 or 15 seconds of the shot clock being the norm. Take the over. 

*3 Star Spurs/Cavs Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Cavaliers started the year playing at a much slower tempo than I expected, but in recent games they have picked up the pace in a big way. Cleveland's offense is getting much more efficient, and after a rare poor game offensively las time against Denver, I think we see the Cavs bounce back offensively here. Cleveland has some real problems on the defensive end. The team defense here is about as bad as you'll see. San Antonio is absolutely a team that can take advantage of that with their amazing ball movement. The Spurs have been a little off the mark offensively most of this year, but I think their offense will be humming in this one against one of the worst defenses in the league.  Both teams prefer to push the pace and both of these offenses can put up points in bunches. This total is set at a very reasonable level.

The over is 8-1 in the Cavs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. A 16-2 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Sacramento Kings are going to keep playing at a fast pace this year. The Kings early season success has been largely due to their improved defense. While their defense might be a bit better this year, I'm not convinced they can keep playing at the level they have so far this year on the defensive end. New Orleans is number three in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Anthony Davis is a matchup nightmare for just about everyone, and the Pelicans have tons of guys who can shoot it from long range. Sacramento should get their points in transition here too since the Pelicans are below average on the defensive end. The over is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 following a win. The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Xavier Musketeers have decided to pick up the tempo this year. Xavier has a good freshman class, and the Musketeers will likely be better than most experts are predicting. They put up 93 points in their season opener. Long Beach State is always willing to run, and the 49ers get their best player back tonight. Tyler Lamb was suspended the first two games, but he'll play tonight. He and Michael Caffey are a nice one-two scoring punch for Long Beach State. This is a game where I think we'll see a quick tempo and quite a few fouls because of the aggressiveness of both defenses. I handicapped this game at a total of 151 points. Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Morning MONEY* The Iona Gaels and Wofford Terriers tip it off at 7 AM Eastern on Tuesday morning as part of ESPN's 24 hour Tip Off Marathon. Iona is a run and gun type of team, but Wofford is very good at controlling the tempo. These two teams met last year at Iona in the second game of the year, and Iona won 76-55. The Terriers are small favorites here, and the strength of this Wofford team is their backcourt. That should help them slow the game down and keep this one lower scoring than expected. In addition, this game starting at 7 AM should definitely make it harder for the shooters. Needless to say, this isn't a normal time to start a game and that usually hurts scorers. I had this one pegged at 139, so plenty of room for value on the under. A rare early morning play here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Celtics tempo has changed in a big way this year. Boston is pushing it at every opportunity, and that is very beneficial for a team with Rajon Rondo at the point guard spot. Boston has a lot of guys that can get into the paint, and the one thing Phoenix really lacks is a shot blocker on the inside. The Phoenix Suns will likely end the season as one of the top three fastest teams in the league in terms of pace. Phoenix wants to run at every opportunity with a backcourt of Dragic, Bledsoe, and Thomas. This game should be a real track meet. Both offenses have been efficient of late, and the defenses are subpar.

The over is 6-0 in the Celtics last 6 vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 after the Celtics gave up 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics 5 home games this year. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic meet on Monday night. Detroit is a different team than they were last year. They are playing much better defense for new coach Stan Van Gundy. I expect that trend to continue since Van Gundy has proven to be a good defensive coach in the past. Detroit has been very poor on offense though. The Pistons rank in the bottom six in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is just as inefficient on offense. The Magic are unlikely to be as good on offense now with Aaron Gordon out of the lineup also. Orlando's tempo is right around the league average, while Detroit is playing at the fourth slowest tempo in the league. This should be an ugly one. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies  have played some abnormally high scoring  games in their past  couple contests. Memphis won high scoring affairs against both the Lakers and  the Kings the past few days. Detroit is  a much different  team  than Sacramento or  Los Angeles. The Pistons are one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA. They also rank 23 out of 30 NBA teams in terms of pace. Memphis ranks 25 out of 30 teams in pace. The Grizzlies also have one of the best defenses in the NBA. It would be a big surprise if Detroit has consistent success on offense in this game. Memphis tends to not blow out their opponent.  Look for a low scoring contest here. The recent high scores in Memphis’ last 2 games give us good line value on the under. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks both rank near the bottom of the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is 25th out of 30 teams in the league and Milwaukee is 29th. Milwaukee deserves credit for the way they are playing defense though. The Bucks have been the second best defense in the NBA through the first couple weeks of the year. Jason Kidd is doing a good job getting this young team to buy into his system. Orlando's defense is middle of the pack. With two teams who don't play particularly fast and two teams who generally shoot a very low percentage, a total of 193.5 is several points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA RED HOT Run CASH* The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings have a long history of playing uptempo high scoring games against each other. Phoenix is making an even bigger effort to run this year. Why wouldn't they? The Suns backcourt has Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, and Isaiah Thomas who are all absolutely speed burners. The Suns big men (Morris twins and Plumlee) aren't particularly good at sitting in the low post, but they can run the floor extremely well. Sacramento is always glad to run the floor, and their coaching staff is loaded with coaches who have a history of pushing the tempo. They put up 131 points in their last win. Rudy Gay is a scoring machine, and Cousins will have an advantage in the interior. Five of the last six meetings between these two have finished at 210 points or higher. Expect lots of transition buckets and a bunch of points here. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks have both improved a great deal on the defensive end from last year. Both of these teams have new coaches and that has led to a much more concerted effort on the defensive end. Jason Kidd is preaching defense in a big way, and the Bucks have several athletic shot blockers down low. Detroit didn't even pretend to try on defense last year, but Stan Van Gundy won't allow that this season. In addition to two improved defenses, we have two offenses that aren't efficient at all. Both of these teams rank in the bottom six teams in the NBA in terms of offensive efficiency so far this year. All three referees here are what I would consider good draws for an under play. I made this line 189.5. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Knicks/Nets Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets played fast in their first couple games this year, but that was before Brook Lopez came back in the lineup. With Lopez back, the team slows the pace down quite a bit. Lopez also provides the team with a good defender in the middle of the paint. New York is playing at a far slower pace than any team in the NBA through the first few games. The Knicks are still learning their new offense, and it seems like that has caused them to be more cautious and hesitant. Two of three referees in this game are favorable for this under play as well. Look for a game that is played in the halfcourt. This line is several points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Totals Takedown* The Sacramento Kings rank fifth in the NBA in terms of pace. Denver ranks third in the NBA in pace. When these two meet, you are going to see a lot of transition opportunities and quick shot attempts. While both teams have solid defensive numbers so far this year, I'm not buying that these are two of the best defenses in the NBA. The Kings have a lot of guys on their roster who can score in bunches, but they haven't committed themselves on defense in their career. These two teams met last week in Denver and the Kings won 110-105. The referee assignments for this game are helpful as well. Scott Foster is consistently one of the best over refs in the league, and he is the lead referee tonight. Josh Tiven is also a nice over referee. There should be plenty of pace here and a good amount of trips to the stripe too. Take the over. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play of Week* The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors both made it clear in the preseason that they want to play far faster than they did last season. We're already seeing evidence of that from both teams. Boston is second in the NBA so far this averaging 108 points per game. Toronto has scored at least 100 points in every game this year, and they are averaging 104.8 points per contest. I like both of these coaches, and I think they are both making a wise decision to push the tempo based on their personnel. These are two teams that have depth in the backcourt and not a whole lot of inside scoring on the roster. Since these teams didn't play particularly fast last year, the oddsmakers take some time responding to the new look of the team. That allows us to have some value playing the over with them for the first couple weeks. Also, Boston ranks 25th in FG percentage defense and Toronto ranks 29th. There should be lots of quick easy buckets in this one.

The over is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Celtics last 4 vs. the Atlantic Division. The over is 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 13-0 angle. Take the over big! *Please note this line has moved up since I selected it shortly after the open. I would still play this for 5 stars up to 205, 4 stars to 206.5, and 3 stars to 208. Thank you!*

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Rockets are playing at a little bit slower pace this year. They are also playing much better on the defensive end. Their offense isn't quite as potent without Chandler Parsons, but their defense is better. Miami isn't going to be a team that plays terribly fast, and I think the Heat's defense will still rank in the top half of the league despite losing James. Houston's lines have been set too high all year, and I don't think this one is any different. The Rockets defense is stepping up, and a line of 204 is simply too high. I made this line 199.5 points, so I see a few points of value in this one. 

The under is 6-0 in the Rockets last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz have vowed to pick up the pace with Quin Snyder at the helm. He wants the team to move more quickly and pass the ball more often. The Phoenix Suns could end up as the highest scoring team in the NBA this year. I love their pickup of Isaiah Thomas. He teams up with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe to create a ridiculously quick backcourt for the Suns. Phoenix pushed it some last year, but their tempo should be off the charts quick this season. Utah's defense isn't good at all (they were worst in the NBA last year), and the Suns were in the bottom ten as well. This game should be played at a quick tempo and we'll see lot of possessions for each team. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT Run Total* By all accounts, the Sacramento Kings want to run this year. They hired a coaching staff that wants to push the tempo and go small as often as possible. While the Kings first game finished at a low score, it wasn't because the teams played slowly. In fact, Sacramento and Golden State played out to the single fastest pace of any game thus far in the NBA season. Both teams just shot the ball really poorly. Portland had one of the most efficient offenses in the league all year last year and the Kings don't have an answer to guys like Aldridge and Lillard on the defensive end. This line is definitely an overreaction to the Kings low scoring game in the opener. Too much value here to pass up. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are implementing a faster style of play with Jason Kidd as coach this year. Milwaukee's roster fits a fast paced offense much better than a slow it down style. Jabari Parker will be a nice piece in his rookie season, and I expect good seasons from O.J. Mayo and Brandon Knight. Philadelphia is all about running and gunning. The 76ers are a terrible team, but they are going to put up as many shots as they can. Coach Brown has them in shape and he expects them to run for four quarters every single game. You won't see much effort on the defensive end from these guys though. This looks like a game where both teams put up a lot of quick shots and even with a relatively low shooting percentage it finishes over the total.

The over is 9-0 in the 76ers last 9 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their previous game. The over is 4-0 in Milwaukee's last 4 Friday games. The over is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 on Friday. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 or more in the previous game. A 35-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic plan to pick up the tempo this year. Coach Vaughan has said all throughout the preseason that he believes his team's best chance to win is to speed up the game with their athletes. With youngsters like Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton on the roster, I do expect the Magic to have success in transition. Orlando won't be very good defensively though, and the Wizards should get plenty of easy buckets. Washington has a big mismatch on the inside, and look for the Wizards to dominate the offensive glass and get a lot of easy putbacks. Orlando stayed under the total in their first game against a New Orleans team that likes to slow the tempo down, but Washington prefers to run as well. John Wall is at his best in transition. Both teams should push the pace here. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers look a whole lot different than they did last year. Indiana is without the injured Paul George. George isn't the only key injury though. The Pacers are going to be without David West, George Hill, and CJ Watson in this game. That means Donald Sloan will start at the point guard here. Lance Stephenson is no longer on the team, and he was their second best scoring option in the backcourt last year. Without George, West, Stephenson, and their two point guards, the Pacers have some real offensive question marks. The team they are up against has all kinds of issues too though. The 76ers are without Michael Carter-Williams for this game. Joel Embiid is out with an injury as is Jason Richardson. This is a Sixers team that loves to play fast and push the pace, but the Pacers aren't going to want any part of that. Even though Philadelphia played fast last year, they had the least efficient offense in the league.

Late last year, with both teams at full strength, these two played to a final score of 99-90. I expect a really ugly game here. Neither team is going to be good. The Pacers have a good defense with Roy Hibbert in the middle though, and they should control the tempo. Take the under.  

*3 Star Spurs/Heat Total CASH* I took the under in Game Two and it cashed in by five points despite the Heat shooting 52% from the floor and the Spurs knocking down 12 three-point shots. The pace of these games has been plenty slow, and even with high shooting numbers the under is showing value. If the shooting percentages come down to a more normalized number, I would expect the game to stay well under the posted total. The under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings between these two in Miami. Both teams can't keep shooting it great forever. Remember, these are two very good defensive teams as well. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Heat/Spurs Total CASH* The San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat combined to hit 25 three-point shots in Game One. The posted total still only finished over this number by six points. The Spurs shot 59 percent from the floor in that game. Those kind of shooting numbers can't be expected again. The posted total here is several points too high. Keep in mind these teams were very similar in last year's NBA Finals, and the totals were set around 190 for each game. The public likes the over because of all the points from game one, and that gives us a chance to take the value side. Take the under. 

*3 Star Spurs/Thunder 100% CASH* The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder meet in Game 6 on Saturday night in Oklahoma City. The lowest scoring games have all been played in Oklahoma City. That's because Oklahoma City's defense has shown up on their home court. With their backs up against the wall, I expect OKC to show up on defense again here. The Spurs shot the lights out last game, and the Thunder are facing elimination here. The pace generally slows down in elimination games, and this is a very high posted total. Look for a closer game here finally, and look for both defenses to step it up in a game that means a bunch to both teams. 

The under is 5-0 in the Spurs last 5 playing on a day of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Finals games. The under is 6-0 in OKC's last 6 games playing on one day of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in OKC between these teams. A 50-0 angle. Take the under.