Cappers Sports Picks

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels definitely have an efficient offense, but it is hard for them to get to a total this high with the tempo they play at. St. Mary's is 350th in overall tempo out of 351 teams in the nation. They are using up more than 20 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. 

UT Arlington has slowed down their pace this year. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted for that yet. UT Arlington was previously one of the fastest teams in the country, but so far this year they are playing at only an average tempo. UT Arlington is better on defense than most teams St. Mary's has gone up against so far this year. 

St. Mary's is likely too good for UT Arlington, and that's a good thing for the under. St. Mary's is one of the best teams you will find in the country at "taking the air out of the ball." The Gaels should be able to do that here and keep this one under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen have played five straight games that finished under this posted total. I think that has set us up for some great value here. There was an early steam move on the under here, and I'm glad to take the lower price.

UMass has played five straight teams that look to slow down the tempo. This time they are up against a Pacific team that wants to run as well. That's very important here. Pacific ranks 127th in tempo overall. That is much faster than any of UMass' last five opponents. 

UMass ranks 9th in the country in overall pace, and they will continue to push the issue here.

Another important point is the rate at which both teams foul. UMass and Pacific both rank among the top 20 teams in the country in most fouls committed. There should be a bunch of trips to the charity stripe in this one.

UMass thrives on using full court pressure to get steals and quick baskets. Pacific is expected to be without their point guard in this game. Look for plenty of easy baskets and a lot of time spent in the bonus.

I think this one gets to about 150 or higher. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The line here has gotten so low that I have to make a big play on the over. Idaho is definitely a team that struggles to score, but here they are up against the fastest paced team they have played yet this year.

Washington State isn't likely to let Idaho turn this into a 55-50 type game. Washington State has only played two games all year that finished at less than 150 points! Their last game against New Orleans was the slowest tempo the team has played at this year, and Coach Ernie Kent wasn't happy about it either. They should be pushing the tempo in this one.

Idaho is pretty good defensively, but they are very foul happy. That helps this one a lot since Washington State is great at getting to the line. Both teams rank in the top 100 in the nation in most free throw attempts so far this year.

With one team pushing the pace and both teams getting to the line, I like this over quite a bit at this low of a price.

Take the over big.

*4 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders are certainly playing faster this year, but this price is too high for me to pass up taking the under. Loyola Chicago has a long history of slowing the tempo down and winning with strong defense. Loyola doesn't attack the basket, rather they settle for a lot of long range shots.

On the other side, Wright State is very dependent on getting to the foul line. The Raiders aren't very good from the floor, but they are in the top 25 at getting to the free throw line. Loyola Chicago doesn't foul much at all, and with this game at Loyola I think Wright State will get fewer free throws than they have in most games this year.

I think this game ends at about 140 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls typically play at a relatively slow pace under Fran Dunphy. In the last couple years, this is a team that has been much more efficient on the defensive end than the offensive end. They are a little better on offense this year, but I still consider Temple a defense first team.

George Washington and Temple both come in solidly in the bottom half of college basketball in terms of tempo. There isn't any reason to expect either team to get out in transition all that much in this game. Instead, it should be played in the halfcourt, where both defenses are very good.

Both of these teams rank in the top 60 in the country in least fouls committed. That's definitely a good thing for the under.

Both of these teams have slowed their pace down of late, and I like that trend. The recency of both teams allows me to project this one at about 67 possessions. At that pace, it would take some very good shooting numbers to send this one past the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes want to run more this year. They rank 97th out of 351 teams in the country in terms of tempo. Utah Valley ranks 4th in the country in tempo, so they are certainly going to try to run in this one. I think we will see a track meet here.

Utah Valley is great from three point range. The Wolverines shoot almost 39% from 3. The one weakness of the Utah defense is defending beyond the arc. I think Utah Valley hurts them a lot from long range tonight.

On the other side, Utah Valley doesn't have nearly enough size on the interior. Utah is a great offensive rebounding team, and I expect a bunch of second chance opportunities for them in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have made it a goal to play much faster this year. The Bonnies are 89th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. Hofstra has always been a team that prefers to run under Coach Joe Mihalich. 

In their last 3 games, Hofstra has scored 89, 88, and 88 points. They should be able to take advantage of a St. Bonaventure defense that gives up a lot of second chance points and fouls a lot as well. Hofstra makes a living at the line, and I expect a lot of points from the line from them here.

St. Bonaventure has scored 102, 89, 81 and 90 points in their last four games. This is a team that should be high scoring all year long.

With tempo and a lot of trips to the line, I see this line a few points too low. Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* This is a really interesting game to handicap. Savannah State decided before the season to change their style to try to play at the single fastest tempo of any team in the country. They are doing it so far. They are shooting in an average of only 12 seconds each time they get the ball. That is lightning quick.

What has that meant for their scores? Savannah State hasn't played a game all season that has finished below 169 points. They have played three games that have had 200 points or more total.

Oregon should be able to put up 100 points here without even trying to run up the score. The Ducks have been slowed down tempo wise by multiple teams this year, and here is their chance to go back to their normal quick paced ways.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Penn State Nittany Lions have decided to play at a quicker tempo this year. Penn State ranked 311th in the speed at which they put up a shot on average last year. So far this year, they rank 16th in the country. That's a huge difference. They host a Wright State team coached by Scott Nagy, and he is pushing his team to play fast and get to the rim this year.

Wright State is 51st in the nation (out of 351 teams) in overall pace. The Raiders are getting to the line 15th most in the country. This Raiders offense is shooting an impressive 40% from long range as well. 

Six of Wright State's eight games so far this year have gone over this total, and most of them haven't been very close. 

I think we see an uptempo game here. I have this one getting to the mid 150's. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are going to play fast this year. This is a team that has a lot of good outside shooters. The Bonnies have scored 81 points or more in four of their six games this year. They'll be up against a Buffalo team that ranks 61st in overall tempo. St. Bonaventure is 83rd in overall tempo. This game should be played at a quick pace.

Buffalo has turnover problems on offense, and I expect St. Bonnie to pick up some full court pressure here to create easy baskets. 

Both of these teams are fouling a lot this year, and a lot of trips to the free throw line should be expected in this one. 

I think this one is several points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LA Monroe Warhawks are always a team that likes to slow the game down. Chattanooga has been the same way the last couple years. So far this year, Chattanooga has played several teams that speed up the game and that has skewed their totals higher. When you play Tennessee and North Carolina, that will make your stats a little off. 

LA Monroe won't be pushing the pace here, and I don't think LA Monroe will be able to score very much here against a good defensive team that has a lot more size than they do. 

My number for this game was 131 points. Look for Chattanooga to grab an early lead and win a game that stays under the posted total. Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Villanova Wildcats have a really efficient offense. This team was ridiculously efficient in the NCAA Tournament last year, and that won them the title. Their effective field goal percentage is even a little bit better so far this year. Villanova can pile up the points per possession. They average almost 1.2 points per possession. 

St. Joe's is way down from a year ago, and I think Villanova will put up a pretty big number here. The Hawks are down most on the defensive end. Martelli's St. Joe's team is playing at a slightly quicker pace than the average team so far this year.

Villanova's defensive efficiency is down just a bit from last year as well.

This kind of total is just too low with a Villanova offense involved and against a team that won't try to stall the entire game. I had this totaled at 137 points. 

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes have decided to play much faster this year. They were 279th in tempo on the offensive end (time it took to get a shot up on average) last year. This year they are 84th in the same statistic. 

Montana State ranks 59th in overall tempo so far this year. The Bobcats have played only one game all year that finished below this posted total. Montana State shoots the 3 ball very well, and they put up a bunch of 3's. That isn't such a bad thing against Utah, since the one weakness of the Utes defense the last couple seasons has been defending beyond the arc. 

Utah is the 8th best rebounding team in the country, and they should get a bunch of second chance points in this one. The Utes halfcourt defense is clearly much weaker without Poeltl and Loveridge from last year's team.

I think this one is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are playing at the 13th fastest tempo in the country. UCLA has a sensational point guard in Lonzo Ball. Ball is one of the best freshmen in the country, and he is worth watching on television whenever you get a chance. Besides being a tremendous player on his own, Ball has helped this team in a big way by getting Bryce Alford to move back to shooting guard where he is most comfortable. Alford has been forced into the point guard role in the past couple years, and he wasn't that good there. Alford has been great at shooting guard this year, and this UCLA offense has been amazing.

UCLA has scored 99 points or more in four of their seven games this year. The Bruins go up against a UC Riverside team that gave up 85 points to Utah the other night. UCLA should put up 90 or more in this one. 

UC Riverside has consistently been bad at defending the three-point line, and that isn't good against this UCLA team that is shooting 45.2% from distance.

UCLA has allowed 67 points or more in every game so far this year. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes are down a little bit offensively without Angel Rodriguez this year, but they are better on the defensive end. This is a team that looks to slow the tempo down every year, and this year is no different. 

Rutgers has a really good coach in Steve Pikiell. This Scarlet Knights team will be in over their heads here, but this team is much improved. Rutgers is playing very slowly and playing defense this year (something they didn't do a year ago). 

It's hard to imagine either team speeding the game up here. Miami will likely grab the lead and use up the shot clock even more late in the game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Cougars are an underrated team. Houston is 5-0 on the year, and I think they'll make a push to be in or close to in the NCAA Tournament this year. Houston has made a commitment on the defensive end this year. They were 179th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. This year they are 97th. 

Houston also controls the tempo of the game. They haven't played a game with the tempo above 71 possessions yet this year. The Cougars will use up the clock and pass the ball around a lot before putting up a shot. 

LSU is also focusing on defense, and the Tigers offense is a little less efficient without Ben Simmons. The Tigers no longer have the go to guy on offense. 

I had this total at 146 points. I see both defenses as improved and I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rhode Island Rams are back to playing a much faster paced game this year with EC Matthews healthy again. Matthews is the best player on this team, and he might be the best player in the Atlantic 10 Conference as well. Rhode Island doesn't waste trips on offense. They are great at taking care of the basketball. 

Last year's Valparaiso team ranked in the top ten in the country in defensive efficiency. This year's team ranks 72nd. Vashil Fernandez is gone, and without the great shot blocker by the rim, Valpo's defense is way down from a year ago. The Crusaders still have an elite scorer in Alec Peters, and as a team they are shooting 83.5% from the free throw line. Valpo's tempo is slightly faster than the average tempo in the country this year as well.

This total looks like it was made for a meeting between these two last year. Things have changed. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in the past five games. Stan Van Gundy is working hard to get his team to take care of the basketball and win with their defense. 

Charlotte plays at an average tempo, but the Hornets have played very good defense of late. In their last three contests, Charlotte ranks fourth best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In that same time frame, the Pistons are 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

The total has moved up to 200, where I'm comfortable taking the under. Two of the three referees in this game are solid under guys (Boland and Callahan) so that is another positive.

The under is 13-3 in the Pistons last 16 when on 2 days of rest. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Monday MONEYMAKER* The Utah Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA. In fact, they play at the slowest pace in the NBA by more than two possessions per game. Minnesota ranks 21st in the NBA in terms of tempo. This game should be played at a slow pace throughout. 

Minnesota's defense hasn't been what it needs to be so far this year, but with Coach Thibodeau at the helm this defense will get better. I believe we have seen signs of them being better of late. The Timberwolves held Phoenix to only 85 points on Friday night. Phoenix plays very fast, so that was some good defense from Minnesota. Their home game against Boston last week where they allowed 99 was improvement too. Boston averages 104 points per game.

Utah is allowing only 92.8 points per game. In addition to playing slowly, Utah also ranks number one in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. Opponents are shooting only 42.3% against the Jazz.

The under is 5-1 in the Timberwolves last 6 games. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the NBA Northwest. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles consistently have one of the very worst defenses in the nation. This is a team that gives up ridiculously high shooting percentages. I don't expect things to be any different for them this season.

The key to this bet is Denver, and the way they are playing under new coach Rodney Billups. Denver was the second slowest paced team in the nation out of 351 teams last year. This year so far they are 81st in the nation in tempo. I think there is some value here until the oddsmakers adjust completely to this huge change. 

Two of Denver's three games have gotten into the 170's this year. I think this is a reasonable price on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is a really high total, but it still isn't high enough. Wisconsin Green Bay ranks in the top ten in the nation in tempo. Central Michigan coach Keno Davis said before the season he wants his team running and he expects them to finish in the top ten in the nation in points per game. Here's a great chance for them to run, and I think they will.

Green Bay's defensive numbers should slip from last year, and Central Michigan has a lot of shooters on their team. On the other hand, Central Michigan's defensive numbers are consistently near the bottom of the MAC. 

Up and down in this one with a track meet style of game. I think this one tops the 170 point mark. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green offense is terrible this year. North Texas is shooting 29.7% from long range and even more embarrasing 38.4% from two point range. The Mean Green are playing at an average tempo this year on offense, and they are mixing in zone to slow the opposition down.

Niagara has been a slow it down team the last couple years. They look to run the clock and get up a shot late in the timer. The Purple Eagles should slow the the pace of this game down. 

Neither team gets to the line very much and that is a big help here. While only 29% of the bets placed are on the under here, 71% of the money is on the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons play at the 24th fastest pace in the league, so they are more of a slow it down type team. The Clippers are 16th in the league in tempo, which is average. 

The Clippers rank second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Pistons rank 6th in defensive efficiency. 

The Clippers do have a very good offense, but the Pistons defense has been excellent at home this year. The under is 7-1 in the Pistons last 8 home games. 

In this one, I'm seeing only 38% of the bets placed on the under, but 71% of the money on the under. This looks like the sharp play.

Two of the three referees in this game (Blair and Kirkland) are two of the best under referees in the league.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seton Hall Pirates offense should carve up this Quinnipiac defense. Quinnipiac allowed 82 points against Gonzaga last night, and Gonzaga had a bad shooting night. Quinnipiac allowed 86 against Columbia (slow tempo down) and 94 against Vermont (slow tempo team). 

Seton Hall likes to run when they can, and Quinnipiac Coach Tom Moore has said that he wants his team to play very fast this year and they should be in a lot of high scoring contests. 

The fact that this is a neutral venue lowers the total a bit, but I still had this one at 156-157 points. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers didn't return a single player who averaged more than 6 points per game last year. It is showing in the early season results. Milwaukee scored 54 points against Memphis and 59 points against DePaul in their first two games against Division I opponents. 

East Tennessee State put up 96 points against Fordham thanks to shooting better than 60% from the floor. They then scored 107 points against a Detroit team that will rank near the top of the country in terms of pace this year. Last game though, East Tennessee State scored only 59 points against UNC Wilmington.

Milwaukee is going to try to slow the pace of this game down. If you look at E Tennessee State's numbers from last year and this year, they are no faster than an average team, so I'm not sure they push the issue too much either. 

Barring some very high shooting numbers, I think this one stays under this posted total. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at 11 am in Las Vegas. This is a really tricky spot for both teams. Neither team is accustomed to playing this early in the day, which can be an issue for college kids. Secondly, this is right after the Thanksgiving holiday. While these teams weren't at home for the holiday, it was still an important day and it throws off the normal schedule. 

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks slow the tempo down, and I see them getting their way as far as the pace in this one. Fullerton usually plays against other teams that play quickly, but that isn't the case here. 

I think this total is shaded a few points too high, especially when you consider the situation in this one. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Hoops Thanksgiving Day TOP Play* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have a ton of depth this year. Mark Few said in the preseason that this is as much depth as he has ever had at Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have a tremendous bench that can play at almost as high of a level as the first team. Because of that, Gonzaga is looking to play quicker. The Bulldogs rank 44th in the country out of 351 teams in shortest amount of shot clock used before taking a shot. 

Quinnipiac couldn't score last year, and Coach Tom Moore got frustrated losing 56-52 type games constantly. He decided it was time to change the way the team played. Quinnipiac ranked 225th in time used to put up a shot last year. This year they are 48th quickest. That's a big change. 

Let's take a look at the results from the teams games so far this year. Gonzaga has had their games finish at 161 points, 117 points, and 179 points. The 117 was against San Diego State, who plays slowly and plays excellent defense. Still, Gonzaga has scored 92 and 109 points in their other two contests. 

Quinnipiac allowed 94 points to Vermont and 86 points to Columbia. Neither one of those teams play fast at all. Quinnipiac pushed the tempo and gave up a lot of easy scores. 

I see all this meaning that Gonzaga puts up a really big number here, and I think because of the quickness of the tempo, Quinnipiac will get enough. 

This is a good value based on two teams playing much different than they were a year ago. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted yet. 

I had this total at 161 points. Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Under* Coach Sampson said before the season the area he wanted this Houston team to work on the most was defense. He wants the defense to be much better than they were a year ago. In their two games against Division I opponents, Houston has allowed 56 and 52 points. This is a good spot for them to show the defensive improvement once again.

South Dakota wants to play quickly, and the Coyotes have scored at least 78 points in each of their games thus far. Still, they haven't played a good team yet this year. I think Houston will be a pretty big step up in class.

Houston likes playing at a slow pace, and I think there is a good chance Houston grabs the lead here and controls the tempo of the game. Houston is 301st out of 351 teams in terms of time they take before putting up a shot on average, so they are moving at a very slow tempo. 

This line is inflated by a few points. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Ole Miss Rebels always want to push the tempo. Andy Kennedy is a guy who doesn't believe in slowing the game down. Creighton ranked 38th fastest in terms of pace last year and this year they are 26th out of 351 in the nation.

Creighton has a much improved team this year, and they are going to pile up the points on a lot of teams this year. The Blue Jays are having no problems with the neutral court in St Thomas. In fact, Creighton scored 103 points on Washington State on Friday and 112 points on NC State yesterday. The Blue Jays had a star in Maurice Watson already, and now they added in transfer Marcus Foster. This is one of the best offensive teams in the country.

Ole Miss should be able to score in the paint here. The Rebels have a very good inside player in Saiz. Deandre Burnett is having a breakout year in the backcourt as well.

I think this one tops 170 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Red HOT CASH* The MTSU Blue Raiders shocked the basketball world by stunning Michigan State last March. They host Tennessee State for this one. This is an intrastate battle that should be a pretty heated contest. 

Dana Ford coaches Tennessee State, and in his first year at the program the Tigers went from 5 wins to 20 wins. Ford coached under Gregg Marshall at Wichita State, and he is preaching the importance of defense to his team. It has been working. Tennessee State is 3-0, and they haven't allowed more than 65 points in a game this year.

MTSU is always a good defensive team under coach Kermit Davis. These two teams met last year and the final score was 69-66.

Tennessee State's three games so far this year have finished at 142, 134, and 130 points. I think this total is a few points too high.

Look for the defenses to come through in this one. Take the under.  

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. Memphis ranks 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Grizzlies scored only 88 points against the Clippers in their first meeting this year, and I don't think they'll get above that number here either.The Clippers defense has been at its best at home so far this season.

Also, consider the pace that each of these teams are playing at right now. The Grizzlies play at 25th fastest pace out of 30 teams. The Clippers are at #15, right in the middle. With the Grizzlies offensive woes and the Clippers defensive greatness so far this year, it's hard to imagine the total being lined above 200, but it is. 

The under is 20-6 in the Clippers last 26 home games. The under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The UCSB Gauchos have gone with a slow paced offense ever since Bob Williams has been at the school. Williams uses a deliberate style on offense, and he has good guards who should be able to both control the tempo and take care of the basketball. 

San Francisco let Rex Walters go at the end of last year, and now Kyle Smith is the head coach here. Smith was the coach at Columbia. In each of his last four years at Columbia, his teams finished among the 40 slowest paced teams in the country (out of 351). He was quoted as saying before the season that he expects this Dons team to play at "a fairly slow pace."

One thing I've learned over the years of handicapping college hoops is almost no coach likes to admit their team is going to slow the game down. Everyone wants to say they'll play at a faster pace, even if that doesn't end up being the case. Smith was open about his team slowing the game down, which tells me a lot. 

In their first game, San Francisco played an 82-80 game against UIC, but that was about their opponent. UIC wants to make their games frenetic, and they were able to do it.

UCSB played to a sloppy 74-60 loss at home to Nebraska Omaha in their first game. The important part of that is UCSB definitely slowed the game down against an Omaha team that ranks in the top ten in tempo every year.

 Neither team should be pushing the pace here. I think we get this high of a line thanks to an overreaction to the San Francisco score in game one. Take the under big! 

*My number here was 138. This line has jumped and then dropped back down later today. I recommend this for a 5 star play as low as 142. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers beat Wofford 91-69 in their season opener. Wofford slowed the pace down successfully in that game, but LSU scored an amazing 1.36 points per possession. Wofford slowed the pace down to only 67 possessions. 

Southern Miss played almost as slow as anyone in the nation last year. The Golden Eagles will try their hardest to keep the tempo down in this one, because that is their only chance to stay close. Southern Miss played 28 games against Division I teams last year, and only three of them went over this posted total. Only two of them went over this posted total in regulation. Southern Miss didn't have a single game that went above 138 points in non-conference play last year. 

LSU will try to push the tempo, but I do expect them to get a big lead here, so later in the game they should be satisfied to slow things down a bit and take it easy on Southern Miss a little bit.

This number is too high for me to pass up. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Hoops TOP Play Total* The Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix shot the ball quicker than any other team in the country last year. Green Bay only used up 13.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. That's blazing quick tempo, and Coach Linc Darner wants to do exactly the same thing this year. In fact, he said he believes this year's team can be just as good on offense. 

Green Bay did lose a couple very important players in Carrington Love and Jordan Fouse. These guys were really good on both ends, but before this season, Coach Darner said the end he is concerned about is the defense. He believes he has the guys to keep the scoring going, but he isn't sure if this team can defend as well. 

Pacific has a new coach in Damon Stoudemire this year. He is well known from his playing days at Arizona and in the NBA. He wants to bring an uptempo style of play to Pacific. They will definitely get their chance to run as quick as they want to go in this one. Pacific just gave up 119 points to UCLA, so it is fair to say they have plenty of work to do on defense.

Both teams want to push the pace in a big way. With Pacific changing the way they play, I think this number is a good value. I expect a very high scoring contest. Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NC Central Eagles have played a very slow paced style and tried to win with strong defense as long as LeVelle Moton has been their head coach. NC Central successfully slowed Marshall down to a 81-69 final in their opener. Marshall will play as fast as anyone in the country this year, and that's a very low scoring game for them. 

Ohio State scored 78 points in their opener, but that was because they shot 10/18 from 3 point range. The Buckeyes didn't try very hard to push the tempo in that game. 

Ohio State clearly has a big talent advantage here, and they should win comfortably. If you look back to last year, Ohio State was fairly consistent at taking their foot off the gas when winning big. Their big wins over Mt. St Mary's, Grambling, and South Carolina State were all played to a final total of 137 or lower.

Now that this number has been bet up, I see value on the under. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets should finish the season near the top of the list in terms of tempo in the NBA. Houston has played multiple teams of late who have looked to slow them down. They have played San Antonio twice and played Dallas twice as well. Those teams weren't wanting to run, and the Spurs play great defense. 

Now, Houston has a lowered number on the posted total because their recent games have been lower scoring. This time they get to take on the Philadelphia 76ers. Philly prefers a quick pace as well, and the 76ers are bad on defense. Houston should put up a big number in this one. 

The Philadelphia offense has been really inefficient this year, but they get to go up against a Houston defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Philly should be able to get their points in this game as well.

Recency bias has led to this total being set a little too low. 

The over is 5-0 in the 76ers last 5 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 when playing on one day of rest. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more last game. A 14-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels and UMass Minutemen are similar teams in that their whole goal is to speed up the pace of the game. They'll get their wish in this one. 

Ole Miss played an 86-83 game in their season opener. UMass played a 90-76 game in their opener. I think this total is a few points too low. 

Neither team is particularly strong on the defensive end, and I think some easy transition buckets can be had in this one. UMass doesn't have any good shot blockers on the interior this year, and Ole Miss has only one. 

Early in the season we often see the fastest paced games of the season overall, and this game has the feel of one of them that could be extremely quick. Because both teams attack the basket well, free throws should be pretty common in this game as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Temple and LaSalle are both in Philadelphia. These two teams are city rivals, and I think the defenses show up ready to play. Usually in a game where there is more at stake, the tempo slows down and the scoring is lower. I think that will be the case in a game like this.

Look at last year's meeting where the final score was 62-49. That was no fluke. That game was played at a pace of only 57 possessions. That is extremely slow in this era. This might be a little quicker than that, but even at 59 or 60 possessions, it would take some very good shooting numbers to get past this posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers always play the same style under Brad Brownell. They are going to look to slow the tempo down and win with their defense. They always do. Clemson lost 71-48 last year to Georgia. This total has been bet up to a level where I have to play the under. 

Georgia is a better team on defense than offense as well. The Bulldogs play at a slightly slower tempo than the average team. Georgia isn't going to dictate the pace in this game.

I think this is a spot where almost all totals in college hoops are being bet up, and this one has just gotten too high. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The New York Knicks host the Utah Jazz at noon eastern on Sunday afternoon. This is a spot where I like to take the under. New York City is a huge city with a ton of things to do. There can be some late nights and early mornings in situations like this, which often leads to sluggish games with poor shooting percentages. 

New York has mainly played against teams who like to play fast this year, and they have had some very high scoring games. In this one, they'll be up against the Utah Jazz, who play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. In fact, the Jazz games so far this year have had about 2.5 possessions fewer than any other team in the NBA.

Utah is a defensive-minded team, and the Jazz will look to slow this game down and win a low scoring contest. They have only played one game that went above this posted total so far this year. 

With the tempo and the early Sunday afternoon game, I like the under in this one.

The under is 5-0 in Utah's last 5 Sunday games. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a double digit loss at home. The under is 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 following a win by more than 10 points. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Los Angeles Clippers host the Utah Jazz in a strange Sunday afternoon game that tips off at 1:30 pm local time. These early start time games on Sunday often turn into sluggish fourth quarters, and I believe this is a good spot for the under.

Utah will probably be the slowest paced team in the NBA this year. The Jazz defense is good in the interior, and they will try to do their best to slow the tempo down in this game. 

Los Angeles got much better on defense last year, and I see it continuing this season. The Clippers have several good individual defenders, and having DeAndre Jordan by the rim helps in a big way obviously.

The under is 5-2 in the Clippers last 7 Sunday games. Four of the last five games between these two were under this total in regulation. 

Early on the sharp money has hit the under had, and I agree with this play. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets are going to play at breakneck pace this year under Mike D'Antoni. D'Antoni ran a tremendous offensive system with the Suns several years ago. It hasn't worked very well in New York with the Knicks or in LA with the Lakers, but that was because of the makeup of the team.

Houston has a team that is absolutely capable of running and gunning with the D'Antoni offense. In the preseason, Houston had the highest offensive efficiency of any team in the NBA. They are going to score loads of points this year, and clearly in this system they will give up a ton as well.

The Los Angeles Lakers want to play fast under Luke Walton. They have some athleticism on the team, and I don't see them trying to stall out the flow of this game. 

The early betting numbers on this one encourage me a lot as well. So far, 60% of the bets on this game are on the under, but a whopping 94% of the money is on the over. The sharp players like the over, and I'm siding with them here. Houston puts up a huge number and this one goes over. Take the over in this contest. 

*4 Star NBA Finals Game 7 Season Closing CA$H* The Cleveland Cavs and Golden State Warriors meet Sunday night with everything on the line. In general in the NBA, the bigger the game is the more likely it is you will see more defense and a slower pace. The games don't come any bigger than this one. This is literally a career defining game for some people involved in this game. 

There also hasn't been a close game yet in the series, but I think that probably changes here. Golden State is banged up and Cleveland has the momentum, but Golden State is a great team and has the home court advantage. If this game is close late, the tempo will slow down drastically. 

In the past 12 years, Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have seen the under hit at a 65% clip. If you go back and look at the last three NBA Finals Game 7 results they show this in a big way also. The last 3 were: Spurs 81 Pistons 74 in 2005, Lakers 83 Celtics 79 in 2010, and Heat 95 Spurs 88 in 2013. 

This posted total is set high for a good reason. Both of these offenses are very good. Still, the long term numbers all tell me to take the under in this one. The public is betting the over at about a 76% clip here, and as of yet the total has not moved up. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Game 5 CASH* Game 4 was played to by far the slowest pace of the series thus far. The Cavs are likely going to try to make this game very physical, and typically in elimination games the tempo slows down a touch.

This posted total has dropped despite the public backing the over at 68% clip. Draymond Green's suspension has something to do with that for sure, but I believe this also means there is some sharp money on the under in this one.

Without Green, the Warriors lose a key facilitator of their offense. I think this game likely has less rhythm and is a little sloppier than most of the games in the series thus far. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Thunder/Warriors Game 7 MONEY* The Golden State Warriors proved very clutch in their Game 6 win. Golden State knocked down 21 three-pointers in that game, and that carried them through on the road in Oklahoma City. 

I had the under in that game and that cashed. I'm going with the under again here. The long-term trend is clear: elimination games in the NBA playoffs tend to mean a slower tempo and tighter defense. 

In Game 6, the game stayed well under despite the Warriors hot long range shooting. That's because the tempo was 4 possessions slower than the average of the first five games. That's a significant difference, and I have to think that continues here.

It's win or go home time for both teams. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Warriors/Thunder MONEYMAKER* The public loves to bet the over, and in this one the over is getting about 80% of the public bets. Despite that, the line has held steady and even dropped one half of a point at some books. That's a good sign for the under here. 

Additionally, we have three referees who have more unders than overs so far this year. 

An angle I really like is the under is 41-19 in the last 60 NBA playoff potential elimination games in game six or game seven of a series. Why is this? Normally teams tighten up and the pace slows down a tick. The defense gets better because no one wants to go home. 

These teams can definitely score, but I'm counting on a few less free throws than last game, and 221 is a bunch of points. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Cavs/Raptors Game 4 MONEY* The Cleveland Cavs have been prolific offensively so far this postseason, but Game 3 was their worst shooting performance in the playoffs thus far by a wide margin. Kyrie Irving was 3/19 from the floor and Kevin Love was 1/9 from the floor. Cleveland shot 35% from the floor as a team.

I don't expect that to happen again. Toronto's defense hasn't been very good on the whole this year, and Cleveland was getting good shots and missing them in Game 3. 

Toronto is much better offensively on their home floor. Guys like Derozan and Lowry have much more confidence getting to the basket when they are playing on their home floor. 

The first three games of this series have all had very high first halves and lower second halves because the game hasn't been close. We should get a closer contest where the scoring doesn't drop off as much late in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Thunder/Warriors Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors dropped game one due to some poor shooting numbers. While Oklahoma City's defense had some to do with it, I believe it had more to do with Golden State just not making shots they normally make. The Warriors aren't going to be held to 44% shooting on their home floor very often. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook didn't shoot the ball all that well, and still Oklahoma City scored 108 points last game. 

The regular season meetings were very high scoring, and while the playoffs lead to a slightly slower pace, both of these teams will want to keep pushing the tempo.

Golden State shot only 17 free throws last game. They made only 11. Oklahoma City shot only 68% from the line last game. These are two tremendous free throw shooting teams, and we can expect to see more points from the charity stripe in this game.

The offenses get rolling in this contest. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Fast CASH* The Cleveland Cavaliers just set a record for most made 3's in a game with 25. Also, they put down 18 of them in game one. Cleveland is shooting well over 50% from long range in this series so far. Cleveland is good from long range, but they can't keep shooting it that well. 

Atlanta had the best defensive efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference this year, and I expect a strong defensive effort from them in front of their home crowd and down 2-0. The Hawks offense has had trouble getting open looks against this Cavs defense in key moments during this series and even in the regular season.

The tempo in the first couple games was about 92 possessions per game, which is very slow. With any kind of normal shooting numbers, that makes the under look very intriguing. 

The public is taking the over and the line is still dropping. I'm on the under in this one. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Night MONEY* The Indiana Pacers collapsed in Toronto in the 4th quarter in Game 5. The Pacers had that game and gave it away. Now, they have their back up against the wall down 3-2 in the series. 

This has been a tightly contested series where the two offenses have struggled to find any real consistency. The tempo is slow in this series because Toronto plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA. 

Elimination games tend to lead to unders. The under sits at a little over 60% in potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs in the past seven years. This total hasn't been adjusted downward by the oddsmakers, so I'm grabbing the under in what should be a tight game.

The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 road games. The under is 8-2 in the Pacers last 10 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cavs and Pistons are playing this series at an extremely slow tempo. The average pace here has been 89.08 possessions so far this series. That's the slowest first round series in the playoffs by a wide margin so far this year. 

The shooting numbers have actually been good in this series or there would have been some very low scoring games. The total has been adjusted downward slightly in this game, but it isn't enough to keep me off the under.

The public is 62% on the over thus far and the line hasn't moved up. 

I had this line projected at 194.5, so I see clear value here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Warriors/Rockets Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors haven't shot the ball all that well in this series so far. Stephen Curry is expected back for this game, and I think he gives this Warriors team a major shot in the arm. The tempo is always going to be quick when these two teams meet, and there should be a lot of free throws attempted here.

The public is 67% on the under at this time, but the line is moving up, which is a good sign of sharp money on the over. 

The Rockets defense isn't very good, and the Warriors obviously have the best offense in the league. Golden State should be ready for a big game offensively. Houston will get to the line more at home. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night 100% CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers meet in game 3 of their series on Saturday night. 

Los Angeles completely shut down Portland's offense in the first two games of the series. Based on both this series so far this year and the past encounters, it appears that Chris Paul is just a very tough matchup for Damian Lillard. Lillard has had a difficult time getting things going against Paul in the past. 

One thing that few realize is how good this Clippers defense is this year. The Clippers rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are tied with Golden State in his measure. 

There has been one game all year between these two teams (in 6 meetings) that has gone over this total and that was game one of this series based on 3 late tough 3 pointers falling in the last minute of a blowout.

The tempo of this series has been relatively slow and that should continue.

The under is 6-0 in the Blazers last 6 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. An 18-0 angle. Take the under.  

*4 Star Saturday NBA Fast CASH* The Charlotte Hornets couldn't have possibly played worse defense in the first two games of this series. Miami put on an absolute shooting clinic. The Heat scored 1.35 points per possession over the first two games. To put that in perspective, Golden State was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the regular season. They averaged 1.12 points per possession. 

Miami can't keep shooting the ball that well every game. Charlotte should dig deep in this one, especially with it being at home. 

Additionally, the pace of this series has been the single slowest pace of any series in the NBA playoffs. If that continues, and shooting percentages normalize, this total is far too high.

Look for a return to normal here. Take the under. 

*4 Star Cavs/Pistons Total DOMINATION* The Pistons and Cavs have shot the ball extremely well from 3 point range in the first two games in this series. The first game it was Detroit knocking down everything from long range. Last game it was Cleveland. I would expect some normalized shooting numbers in this game.

Cleveland initially pushed the tempo with Lue as their head coach, but they have slowed things down of late. The average pace of 91 possessions through the first two games of this series shows that this has largely been a halfcourt battle. 

I think this total is posted a few points too high based on the high shooting numbers from the first couple games. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Celtics/Hawks CASH* The Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics played to a 102-101 final in Game one. Boston's shooting woes kept that game from being higher scoring. Both Boston and Atlanta love to push the pace, so there's no doubt that the tempo will be quick here. 

Avery Bradley is the Celtics best defender, and it isn't even close. Atlanta's guards will get more open looks with Bradley out with an injury today. The Celtics Isiah Thomas had a bad game one as far as shooting, but he should be better tonight.

We have three overs referees assigned for this game including the single best over referee in the game in Scott Foster. Expect a quick whistle and plenty of free throws. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat did play at a slightly quicker pace at the end of the season, but they still ranked among the ten slowest teams in the league in the last month of the year. Dwyane Wade has long preferred a slow tempo and this Heat team is likely to try to slow the game back down in the playoffs. Charlotte has a slightly slower than average tempo as well. 

Miami ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte ranks 9th. Only one of the four meetings in the regular season went over this posted total. The playoffs usually bring better defense and a slower tempo. 

I think this one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Playoffs Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Toronto Raptors ranked 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. While Toronto was 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, the Pacers were way down at number 23. 

In the NBA playoffs, we often see the tempo slow down a great deal. It makes a lot of sense because so much more is on the line. Additionally, the defense usually picks up. Indiana has been playing relatively fast this year, but Toronto at the second slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors should be able to control the tempo on their home floor.

While about 70% of the public bets so far are on the over, the line here has been gradually dropping. That's a good sign of sharp money on the under in this one. 

This total is a few points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Minnesota Timberwolves have plenty of scorers, and they should be able to score at will against a Pelicans team that is giving up almost 1.19 points per possession in their last 3 contests. Neither of these teams have anything to play for in this game, and I think that definitely is a positive for the over. The over is hitting at a 59% clip in NBA final games of the season in the past five years. No defense here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Raptors are sitting their best players tonight, but I still don't expect them to have any trouble scoring against the Nets. Brooklyn has been the worst defense in the NBA by a huge margin in the past 10 games. Brooklyn's tempo has picked up as well, and I don't see Toronto slowing the pace down with their backups tonight. Brooklyn is allowing 1.20 points per possession in their last three games. 

The over is 13-4 in the Nets last 17 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games overall. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets couldn't care less right now. Brooklyn is definitely playing out the string. Brooklyn is playing the worst defense in the NBA in the past month and it isn't even close. Brooklyn is allowing 1.14 points per possession in the past month. The Lakers are second worst at 1.12 points per possession. Clearly, Brooklyn is putting forth almost zero effort on defense now.

Brooklyn is without Brook Lopez and Thad Young for their final games. The Nets have played at a much faster tempo without these guys this year.

Washington will likely be without John Wall and Bradley Beal here, but they still have guys who can score. Morris was a key pickup, and he's been hot of late. Sessions and Thornton are pushing the pace in the Wizards backcourt as well. 

The early sharp money is piling in on the over here, and I have to agree with that. When these two met last week, the final was 121-103. With neither team caring to play defense, this should be very high as well. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA Tournament Game of the Year* The Oklahoma Sooners and Villanova Wildcats met earlier this year on December 7. The final score in that game was 78-55 with the Sooners winning. That game was on a neutral floor. 

Now, these two will play again in the Final Four. This game is played at NRG Stadium in Houston where the shooting backdrops are notoriously awful. Unders have ruled at NRG Stadium in the past, and when the game means so much, as this one obviously does, this usually leads to better defense and a slower tempo.

Even with normalized tempos for both teams from the regular season, the total here should be something like 146 points or so. The oddsmakers threw out a 150, which shocked me. After an adjustment for where the game is played and the importance of the game, I think 140 points would make more sense than 150 for this posted total.

Both of these teams are tremendous on defense. They both rank in the top 13 in the country. Villanova is playing at a slow tempo this year, and I don't think they'll let this turn into an all out track meet. 

This is my NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. Take the under. *Please note that I expect this line to drop, so play this line as early as possible. Also, while this is a very big play for me, use good bankroll management. Thanks and good luck.*

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers are sitting out Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and J.J. Redick in this one. Blake Griffin is already down with an injury and Paul Pierce is out with an injury as well. The Clippers offense will look a whole lot different on Thursday night than it normally does. 

Oklahoma City has been very good of late. The Thunder have been putting up a lot of points, but they are also playing very well on defense, especially on their home floor. 

This is a high total considering who all isn't playing in this game. The Clippers and Thunder both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Oklahoma City should coast to a win and their defense should be good enough to keep this one low enough scoring. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors are actually both in tough scheduling spots here. That makes me believe this game could be lower scoring than expected. A huge key for me in this game is the public is taking the over at an 85% clip and the total has dropped two full points from the open. That's a very strong signal of some sharp money on the under. 

Utah has to know the only chance they have here is to play some stall ball. They want no part of a high scoring game with Golden State. Both defenses rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past month. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Hawks actually have the single best defensive efficiency mark in the NBA in the past month. Atlanta is winning games with some tremendous defense right now. 

Toronto plays at the third slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors will make this a game played in the halfcourt. Toronto's defense is much improved from last year, and that's the biggest reason the Raptors are the second ranked team in the Eastern Conference right now. 

The public money here is 83% on the over, but this number has dropped from the opener. I always like signs like this one. This is an anti-public play that the bookmakers are clearly respecting. 

The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Houston Rockets go to Cleveland to take on the Cavs tonight. The Cavs will be without LeBron James. Cleveland has been a mess on the offensive end when James hasn't played in the last couple years. In fact, in LeBron's last 15 games sitting out, the under is 12-3. The over is getting almost 80% of the public bets, but the line has gradually moved down today, which is certainly a nice indicator of sharp money on the under. Houston needs games like this one with their playoff spot being very questionable. This one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*5 Star Vegas 8 TOP Play Total SMASHER* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs always look to push the tempo. They should get their wish in this game. Occasionally, you'll find a team that simply plays to the preferred pace of their opponent, and East Tennessee State definitely looks like one of those teams. 

In non-conference action, East Tennessee State played a 103-90 game against Green Bay and a 94-73 game against UNC Wilmington. Louisiana Tech ranks in the top 50 in the country in terms of tempo, and the Bulldogs will look to get in transition in this game. LA Tech is good at getting to the free throw line, and East Tennessee State has been fouling too much down the stretch this year.

East Tennessee State averaged more than 1.11 points per possession in conference play this year, which is great offensive efficiency. LA Tech was a very good 1.087 points per possession also. 

This is the first round of the Vegas 8 Tournament and most of these smaller postseason tournaments often see higher scores early in the tournament. I expect a lot of offense in this one. Take the over big. TOP RATED Play. 

*3 Star North Carolina/Notre Dame Totals CASH* The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with a spot in the Final Four on the line. These two teams played twice during the regular season and Notre Dame won 80-76 at home, while North Carolina won 78-47 on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament. In Notre Dame's comeback win at home, the Fighting Irish scored 31 points at the free throw line (out of 38 attempts). North Carolina doesn't foul much overall and I can't imagine Notre Dame getting to the line that much in this game. 

Notre Dame should know their only chance to win this game is to stall and try to keep the score down. They simply can't get out in transition with North Carolina and expect to have a chance to win here. The Fighting Irish should be running the clock down every time they get the ball.

With 125 and 156 being the totals during the regular season games, I believe this one is lined too high. North Carolina's defense is underrated, and Notre Dame should be planing very slowly. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Atlanta Hawks defense has been the best in the NBA in the past month. For the year, Atlanta ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency behind only the Spurs. In the past month, their defense has been slightly better than the Spurs. Atlanta still plays at a relatively quick pace, but the Hawks offense is much less efficient than they were last year. 

Milwaukee is playing at the slowest tempo of any team outside of Utah in the past month. The Bucks offense struggles without Mayo and Carter-Williams. The Bucks will work to slow this game down as much as possible.

Another strong sign is this total dropping despite 2/3 of the public bets on this game coming in on the over. I always like to see a line move that goes against the public. 

The under is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 home games. The under is 4-1 in the Bucks last 5. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB TGIF Total DOMINATION* These two teams really play at a slow tempo. This game should be played at an extremely slow pace. Notre Dame is 333rd out of 351 teams in college basketball in their offensive tempo. Wisconsin ranks 349th out of 351 in terms of tempo. 

Wisconsin has a way of turning almost any game into a low scoring defensive battle. While Notre Dame's offense is good, I don't think the Fighting Irish will find very many open looks against a good Badgers defense. Wisconsin's offense has been suffering late in the year as Nigel Hayes has really slumped. 

This is a game that I see playing to a pace of 57 or 58 possessions, which would be among the slowest in the entire NCAA Tournament. Neither team fouls much, so that's certainly helpful. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats have the 7th best defense in the nation in terms of efficiency. Villanova also prefers to slow the pace of the game down. Villanova is heavily reliant on outside shooting, and that can be a problem in these neutral site games. 

Miami also likes to play at a slow tempo, and the Hurricanes are more than comfortable playing in a low scoring contest. 

It's important to note that neither of these teams commits many fouls. They are good at defending without committing fouls which can quickly add points to the total.

I expect a close game in this one, and I think the two defenses will have a slight advantage over the two offenses. I had this number at 138. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The New York Knicks tempo has been very slow under Kurt Rambis. They are also working quite a bit harder on defense than they were earlier this year. New York is playing at better than league average on defense in the past month. 

Chicago's defense is better than league average as well, and their offense ranks 25th in the NBA in efficiency. The Bulls offense just can't seem to put it all together this year, and injuries have really held the team back.

The first two meetings this year finished at 198 and 189. This has the highest posted total of any game between these two in the past three years. 

The under is 20-7 in the Knicks last 27. The under is 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Duquesne Dukes can really push the pace of the game. Duquesne just played a 120-112 game against Nebraska Omaha. The score in the second half alone of that game was 80-69! That's mind boggling scoring, and in these smaller postseason tournaments you can get some very high scoring games between teams who prefer to push the pace.

Morehead State showed they were willing to run with Siena in their first postseason game, and that gives me enough reason to play the over here. Morehead State fouls almost as much as anyone in the country, and Duquesne fouls more than average as well. I had this lined at 157 points. 

The over is 4-0 in Duquesne's last 4 games after allowing 90 points or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Morehead State's last 4. The over is 4-0 in Morehead State's last 4 non-conference games. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Maryland Terrapins offense has been up and down this year. They got on track nicely last game in the second half against South Dakota State. Hawaii has an underrated player in Stefan Jankovic who could be tough for Maryland's defense to matchup with

Hawaii's defensive numbers are good this year, but the best teams they played this year put up a lot of points on them. They allowed 82 points against Texas Tech and 87 against Oklahoma. 

Hawaii is extremely aggressive on defense, and that should send Maryland to the line a lot in this one. Maryland is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oklahoma Sooners love to push the tempo, and here they get to play against a VCU team that prefers to play fast as well. Oklahoma will get out in transition in front of a friendly crowd in Oklahoma City. The Sooners shoot 43% from long distance as a team, which is second best in the nation. Buddy Hield is locked in, and the Sooners present several matchup issues for the VCU defense.

Neither of these teams is very good at keeping opponents off the glass, so that should present several second chance opportunities in this one. 

Plenty of pace and scorers all over the floor should equal an over in this one. 

I had this game at 152 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday Tourney Late Night BAILOUT* The North Carolina Tar Heels always want to push the tempo. Providence is generally a team that likes to get out in transition when they can as well. 

Both teams hold key advantages on offense in this game. Kris Dunn is a big guard who should be able to do damage against North Carolina's defense. Not many guards have the kind of size advantage over Carolina's defense that Dunn has, and he should be able to hurt them. On the other side, North Carolina should absolutely dominate on the offensive glass. The Tar Heels are great at getting second chance points, and Providence has struggled there against their best opponents.

Sometimes neutral site games can be bad for the over, but there are a few reasons I like the over here. First, there have been a bunch of whistles so far in the NCAA Tournament. Second, the rims are clearly soft overall in the NCAA Tournament, which helps shooters. Thirdly, both teams are playing in their second game at this venue, and that usually helps shooters as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes are good at controlling the tempo. Gonzaga has been playing to the pace of their opponent more often than not of late. Both of these teams have high quality defenses. I don't think we'll see very many open looks for either team.

The matchup down low of Sabonis for Gonzaga and Poetl for Utah is a tremendous one. I think those two are both good enough on defense to slow the other down more than they are usually slowed down by other opponents. 

This game is played at altitude in Denver where exhaustion can be a factor and we saw Gonzaga's opponent Seton Hall have all sorts of trouble with being winded on Thursday. 

Close game here and I think this total is a few points high. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and New Hampshire Wildcats are both much better on the defensive end than the offensive end of the floor. This is a smaller postseason tournament, but these two teams both prefer a slow tempo, so I don't expect a high scoring game like we have seen in other spots. 

Look for both of these offenses to be inconsistent throughout the course of the game. The slow tempo and poor efficiency should keep this under the posted total. Take the under.  

*4 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* The BYU Cougars host the Virginia Tech Hokies on Friday night. BYU put up 97 points against a very good UAB team a couple days ago. Virginia Tech beat Princeton in overtime a couple days ago. 

Both of these teams prefer to play quickly. While they have some teams who are able to slow them down during the regular season in conference play, they should get their wish to play very fast in this smaller postseason tournament game. 

Virginia Tech is at their best when in transition and attacking the hoop. Virginia Tech gets to the line more often than anyone in the nation (out of 351 teams). BYU is deadly from three-point territory and VA Tech's defense slipped a lot down the stretch against quality teams.

I made this number 167 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers totals are tricky to project because the team presses in the full court and gets so many easy buckets, but if they don't score a quick bucket West Virginia likes to be deliberate and run the 30 second shot clock down low. 

Stephen F. Austin has to know that they cannot afford to get into a shootout with this West Virginia team. The Lumberjacks can't come out running in transition. They don't have enough athletes to beat West Virginia up and down the floor. The Lumberjacks will likely do their best to use up the shot clock whenever they can. 

Both defenses are strong and this number is high for an NCAA Tournament game. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Hawaii Warriors and Cal Golden Bears meet at 2 pm eastern on Friday. First things first, why was this game scheduled as the early game on the West Coast? This thing starts at 11 am Pacific and at 8 am Hawaii time. Neither team will be accustomed to this playing time, and these odd start times are generally good for the under. Don't be surprised if they get off to a slow start or if the shooting numbers are lower than average.

While both of these teams play relatively fast, both teams are far better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Hawaii ranks 40th in the nation in defensive efficiency and 107th in offensive efficiency. Cal ranks 12th on defense and 47th on offense. Cal is first in the nation in two point field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot only 40.9 percent on two-pointers.

The pace usually slows down in the NCAA Tournament. The oddities of this game and the strong defenses make this a good value play. Take the under big. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have slowed their pace of play down drastically throughout the course of the season. Utah is a very good defensive team, and the strength of this Fresno State team is also their defense.

Marvelle Harris is a really good player for Fresno State, but the Bulldogs offense too often gets stagnant. I don't think him going one on one against this Utah defense will work well for Fresno State.

The Utes are likely to have the lead in this game, and they have shown to be very good at grabbing the lead and then controlling the tempo by taking the air out of the ball.

Fresno State isn't a good shooting team, and they rely on free throws often. That's a problem against a Utah team that fouls less than any other team in the nation. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The UConn Huskies are a really good defensive team. UConn also does a nice job slowing down the pace of the game. Colorado is a team that typically plays to the pace of their opponent. The Buffaloes are also a quality defense.

This is an early game and it is the first game of the NCAA Tournament for both teams obviously. The first game jitters should be here and when you combine that with a slow tempo as well as two good defenses, I think we'll see a game where it's a back and forth low scoring game.

While the smaller postseason tournaments are typically played at a quicker pace with less defense, most NCAA Tournament games aren't that way. The defenses have the advantage in this matchup. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER- Note this game is on Wednesday March 16* Both teams prefer an uptempo style and this number is several points too low given that this is a smaller postseason tournament where the tempo gets even quicker on average. I think this one gets at least into the mid 150's. In fact, my number for this game was 157. Neither offense has been particularly efficient during the season, but they are playing against a weak defense on the other end here. Take the over big. TOP RATED play. *This line is moving quickly as are many of the smaller postseason tournament lines. I would play this for a Top Rated play up to 153 points. Thank you* 

*4 Star Play Over- This game is on Wednesday March 16* While neither team played particularly fast in the regular season, the tempo speeds up this time of the year in smaller postseason tournaments. The two offenses are drastically better than the defenses here. I expect some good shooting numbers and a bunch of made 3's in this game. Take the over. *Note- These smaller tournament lines are moving quickly. I would play this up to 151, but no higher. Thank you* 

*4 Star Play Over- Wednesday* This is obviously a very high posted total, but it's high for plenty of reasons. The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks move at the 6th fastest tempo of any team in the country out of 351 teams. Duquesne is the 12th quickest team in the country in terms of getting up a shot. When these two meet, it should be an absolute track meet. Both of them were slowed down by many teams in their conference, but they won't be slowed down in terms of pace here. The smaller postseason tournaments have been great for overs the past few years. Both teams put up a very high number here. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Florida gets to host Florida in a very rare spot for them to try to take out the big team from Gainesville. Both of these teams love to run and the tempo here should be very quick. The smaller postseason tournaments generally have much higher scoring games because teams care far less about defense than they do in the Big Dance. Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Siena and Morehead State both get to the line a lot and knock down free throws. Siena can't handle full court pressure, and Morehead State should get a lot of easy buckets from their press. Both teams are excellent on the offensive glass. The smaller postseason tournaments generally have much higher scoring games because teams care far less about defense than they do in the Big Dance. Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* I can't pass this one up. While there are a couple things about this game I don't like: most importantly the Cavs recent higher scoring games and quicker tempo, the spot is just too good to pass up the under.

It is a strong long-term trend to play early Sunday games in the NBA to go under the posted total. That trend gets even stronger in unique situations like this one. With the clocks moving forward an hour, players get an hour less to sleep on Saturday night and this game starts at 12:30 local time in Los Angeles. That's definitely a negative for scoring when it comes to long term scoring averages.

I'll play the situation here. Take the under.  

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Texas A&M Aggies have the best defense in the SEC. The Kentucky Wildcats have the second best defense in the SEC. This one is being played at Bridgestone Arena, which is noted as a poor arena for shooters. 

In the last meeting between Kentucky and Texas A&M, the game was several points under the total before going into overtime. Both teams will want this one pretty badly, so I'll be looking for a motivated effort on the defensive end. 

Kentucky's defense was non-existent yesterday, and I have to think Coach Cal will let them know about it before this game. 

The under is 13-5 in Texas A&M's last 18 games as they have slowed their pace down. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The VCU Rams and the St. Joe's Hawks squared off earlier this year in an absolute track meet. That game was played at a tempo of 78 possessions, which is extremely quick. The final score in that game was 85-82. VCU likes to run when given the opportunity, and St. Joe's has picked up the tempo in a big way this year. In fact, down the stretch St. Joe's has moved even quicker. Only two of their last ten games have stayed below this total. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The two meetings during the regular season finished way under this posted total. These are two teams who excel on the defensive side of the ball. They are playing on a neutral floor which is slightly negative for shooters. There is early sharp money on the under here, and I think that is the right side. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both regular season meetings between these two teams went well under the posted total. I generally like to look for spots like this where we get a much higher total in the postseason than the regular season meetings were. This game means everything to both teams. If they lose, they are done. That generally slows down the tempo. Additionally, this is at a neutral floor which is a negative for shooters. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers like to stall, but North Carolina isn't going to let them dictate the tempo here. The last four games between these two teams have gone over the posted total. The over has been pure money at the ACC Tournament this year. This line has been bet down to a point where I believe the value is on the over. Both offenses are extremely efficient. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears and Utah Utes are the two best defenses in the Pac 12. These two will have to work very hard on offense to find open looks. Utah has slowed their tempo down to a crawl late in the season. Cal generally plays to the pace of their opponent. This is a rare spot where we get a total in a conference tournament that is higher than either of the regular season meetings. I had 132 for this one. Take the under big. TOP RATED play. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Fresno State Bulldogs and Colorado State Rams just met recently and had a high scoring game. Colorado State is the worst defense in the Mountain West, and they have the most efficient offense in the league. They will give Marvelle Harris and the Fresno State offense a lot of open looks. Additionally, Fresno State's defense fouls a bunch and Colorado State is great at getting to the line and converting. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The ACC Tournament has seen a lot of overs so far this year, so I'm limiting this rating to a 3 star. It normally would have been a 4 star play. One thing that's for sure is the tempo in this game will be extremely slow. Both regular season meetings stayed under this total despite good shooting numbers. The tempo in the last meeting was just 54 possessions. That's as slow as you will ever see in this era. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane like to play quick when their opponent allows them to. Memphis has the 8th quickest tempo of any team in the nation. The regular season meeting between these two went to 174 points. Memphis is going to push in transition as much as possible because Tulsa is tough to beat in the halfcourt. While I'm slightly concerned that the shooting numbers could be low here, I believe the tempo that we'll see warrants a play on the over. I had this one at 152. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Norfolk State Spartans are extremely efficient on offense, and South Carolina State isn't any good on defense. The regular season meeting between these teams finished at 161 points. There should be a lot of free throw attempts and both teams are good from the line. I had this game lined at 153 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Chicago Bulls have major injury problems right now. Chicago is expected to be without Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah, and Cameron Bairstow for this game. Derrick Rose is questionable. The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both of them rank in the bottom ten in the league in offensive efficiency. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 games against each other. This total is inflated by a few points. Take the under here.