Cappers Sports Picks

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames have played an extremely easy schedule so far this year. Liberty hasn't played a single team all year ranked in the top 170 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. That changes here against Vanderbilt. The Commodores rank 11th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Vanderbilt has also done their best to push the tempo. The Commodores rank 120th in the country in pace. This is an extremely low total for a game with one team who plays quickly.

Liberty's offense ranks 45th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Flames have been able to get to the free throw line at the 11th highest rate of any team in the country. Liberty has multiple good shooters on the floor at all times.

Vanderbilt has only had one game finish under 137 points in regulation this year. This total has been bet down to the point where I see value on the over. Last year when these two teams met the final total was 149 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Phoenix rank as the fastest paced team in the country (out of 353 teams) when it comes to average possession length. Green Bay has played a bunch of teams who try to slow the game down so far this year. Green Bay has played only one team who ranks in the top half of teams in the country in tempo this year. That was their game against New Mexico that was played to a ridiculous pace of 87 possessions.

Evansville ranks 62nd in average possession length, and I don't expect them to try to slow the game down. The Purple Aces have been doing a good job spreading the floor and getting open looks for their outside shooters.

Green Bay is much improved offensively, and they are much worse defensively this year. The Phoenix rank 347th in the nation out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. This kind of defense combined with the tempo they play will make for some extremely high scoring games. Six of their last nine games have gone over this total.

Look for an extremely fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks are really buying into Eric Musselman's defensive system so far this year. Musselman wanted to instill a defensive philosophy first with this program and thus far it has worked out nicely. 

Arkansas ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Razorbacks have allowed more than 61 points only once all season! 

Tulsa plays a lot of zone defense and slows down the pace. Tulsa lost their playmakers on offense from last year, and their efficiency on that end of the floor won't be very good this season. 

Tulsa is 34th in effective field goal percentage defense on the season. This is a team that has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 58 points or less.

Look for open shots to be difficult to come by in this one. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are similar teams. Both of them lost their top scoring options from last year. These are two teams led by a coach that is defensive-minded. Last year, both of these teams were better on offense than they have been in any recent year. Neither of them will be as good on offense this year. 

Kansas State isn't even close to the same on offense without Dean Wade, Barry Brown, and Kamau Stokes. The Wildcats have played a very weak schedule this year so far, but they are still only 183rd in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Mississippi State has yet to play a team in the top 75 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Kansas State is 18th in defensive efficiency in the country. The Bulldogs are without their top bucket getters (Weatherspoon and Peters) from last year as well.

I would expect a slow pace when these two meet. This game is also played at a neutral site, and it starts at 11:30 am eastern. Those are positives for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs used 17.0 seconds of the shot clock on average last year. They are using up 19.2 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. This team has far less offensive talent this year, especially at the guard positions. Head Coach Justin Hutson uses a full court press quite a bit to try to slow the game down. It is a zone press that controls the tempo. 

Cal is playing much slower under new coach Mark Fox. Fox is definitely a defensive-minded coach. Cal has knocked down a lot of 3's so far this year, but they have played the 205th toughest slate of defenses on the season. Fresno State's defense should give them trouble. 

With neither team looking to run and both teams short on offensive weapons, I think this one stays low scoring. With the move up today, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina State Bulldogs have more offensive ability than they did a year ago. South Carolina State has Tashombe Riley back in the fold this year, and he put up 20 points in their win over Presbyterian last game. They also have a couple good low post scorers in Applewhite and Kinard. 

South Carolina State has ugly offensive numbers thus far, but they have faced three teams in the top 33 in effective field goal percentage offense according to KenPom (Memphis, Liberty, and Tulsa). Now, they face a UNC Asheville team who ranks 351st in effective field goal percentage defense. 

UNC Asheville can't play defense, but they are forcing the issue and they can score. They were 350th in tempo last year, but are 66th in tempo so far this year. Asheville is good at getting to the basket and the SC State defense has ranked 340th or worse in 2 point field goal percentage defense in three straight years! 

Also important is the fact that both teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. There should be a lot of second chance points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMass Minutemen take on the Yale Bulldogs here. UMass lost their star scorer from a year ago in Pipkins. This is a UMass offense that I believe will have some trouble scoring against top defenses this year. They just don't have enough scoring options. Yale ranks 4th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Yale is controlling the tempo this year. They are 274th in tempo overall and 318th in average possession length. They will look to slow this game down. 

Rutgers was able to hold UMass to 57 points, and the Yale defense ranks better than them overall. 

Yale's offensive efficiency has dropped quite a bit from last year. They lost their top two offensive players from last season. UMass has more athleticism and should gradually improve on defense this year. 

I lined this game a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have played 10 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total. This is a team with a lot of offensive weaknesses, but they are very strong defensively. Little Rock has faced the 97th toughest schedule of offenses this year, and they are still ranked 113th in defensive efficiency. That's excellent for a Sun Belt level team. 

Little Rock is 253rd in offensive efficiency. The Trojans are 341st in turnover percentage. An alarming 24.9% of their offensive possessions end in a turnover. 

Tennessee State ranks 340th in turnover percentage on offense. The Tigers have seen 24.8% of their offensive possessions end in turnovers. The Tigers haven't played good defenses this year, and this is a big test for their offense. 

Little Rock has slowed their pace down drastically this year. The Trojans were 55th in pace of play last year, but they are 260th so far this year. I think they are the better team and I expect them to control the tempo. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals have an excellent defense. Louisville has only allowed more than 62 points once in their last eight games. They have held their last two opponents (Michigan and Pittsburgh) to 43 and 46 points. This is a Cardinals team with all kinds of athleticism, and opponents just aren't getting clean looks at the hoop against them. Louisville ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.853 points per possession. 

Texas Tech is always going to be a defense first team as long as Chris Beard is their coach. Beard is a tremendous coach, and he gets his players to buy into this defensive system. If you don't work extremely hard on defense, you won't see the floor on his team. Texas Tech is 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

Texas Tech's offensive numbers aren't very good this year, and they have played one of the 25 easiest slates of defenses on the year. They face an elite defense in this one.

Jahmius Ramsey is questionable with an injury for the Red Raiders, and he is key to their offense. 

This game is played at Madison Square Garden. There isn't a more proven under arena in all of college basketball. The shooting backdrop is tough here, and the under has dominated in games at MSG.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls haven't played a game higher than 145 points all year. In fact, all but one of their games has finished with 135 points or less. Temple's new coach Aaron McKie said from day one this team was going to be all about defense. So far, he has been right. Temple is 19th in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. They were 164th last season. 

St. Joe's is missing Taylor Funk (out with an injury) more than I thought they would. Funk averaged 9.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Ryan Daly has to do too much without Funk in the lineup. Daly has 23, 25, and 32 points in the three games since Funk was injured. Daly is a pretty good scorer, but he isn't a guy you would want carrying your team all the time. There just isn't a good second option for St. Joe's. I think Temple's excellent defense will key in on Daly and make things difficult for him.

St. Joe's has been extremely inefficient in three straight games. Those games were against three teams that rank as average or worse in effective field goal percentage defense. Temple is elite on defense. The Hawks should have a hard time scoring.

Temple's offense ranks 297th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Owls have scored more than 70 points only once this year. They'll likely top 70 here, but they aren't usually efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa State Cyclones rank 12th in the nation in quickest tempo based on their average possession length. Iowa State is averaging 73.6 possessions in their games. Seton Hall is 95th in pace of play. They are averaging 71.3 possessions in their games. 

These two teams just met on a neutral site and the final was 84-76 Seton Hall. That game was played on a floor that is a tough gym for shooters. There were only 24 free throws total in that game. 

This game should be played at a very quick pace again. This is at a normal location and the total is slightly lower than it was before. That makes little sense because they cleared the number before and played to a 74 possession pace. I expect a similar pace and this one should go over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings are playing much slower this year. De'Aaron Fox is the catalyst for this team, and he is out with an injury. The Kings offense has been a little less efficient without him, and their defense has actually been better. Fox is one of the quickest players in the NBA, and without him the Kings don't have a reason to push the pace as much.

The Dallas Mavericks have been really good on defense at home. Dallas is giving up only 1.035 points per possession at home this year. Dallas is playing a back to back here which is a positive for the under as well.

Dallas plays at an average pace and Sacramento rates as the second slowest paced team in the NBA.

Dallas is a clear favorite here which reduces the overtime risk.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls have changed up their style in recent weeks. Chicago ranked in the top 8 or 9 in tempo for the first month of the season. For the season overall, they now rank 12th in tempo. Chicago ranks 22nd in tempo in their last five games alone. They have slowed things down and improved their defense of late. The Bulls are giving up just 1.047 points per possession (9th best in NBA) in their last five games.

The Miami Heat have consistently been one of the better defenses in the NBA under Erik Spoelstra. The Heat also have slowed their tempo. Miami is 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. 

I don't see either team pushing the pace here. Sunday unders have done very well in the past 15 years in the NBA. 

I see this total as a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies are 340th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They now play an excellent Texas Longhorns defense. Texas is 41st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas A&M is a solid 78th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have struggled at times with turnovers on the offensive end. I would expect a pretty sloppy game here.

This game is played on a neutral court which is helpful for the under. I strongly considered playing this one last night, and now the line has risen by 1.5 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks want to run whenever they have the chance. South Carolina is 24th quickest out of 353 teams in the country when it comes to average possession length. The Gamecocks can sometimes struggle from the floor, but they excel at getting to the line. Houston fouls a lot because they are so aggressive on defense. 

Houston is 110th in average possession length so they are playing pretty fast as well. The Cougars have played four teams who try to stall in their first six opponents. Against both Rice and Houston Baptist they were happy to turn the game into a track meet. 

Both teams excel at getting second chance opportunities. Both teams are also great at getting to the line. Both defenses foul a lot.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Yale is excellent defensively this year. The Bulldogs rank 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They have played in consistently low scoring games this year. Yale hasn't had a game higher than 144 points in regulation, which shows their games totals upside is limited. Yale has played 7 of 10 games so far this year under this total. In fact, 6 of their 10 games have finished with 124 points or less. 

Yale is doing a great job controlling the tempo this year. The Bulldogs rank 315th in average possession length this season. Yale is forcing opponents to play their style of basketball and that is allowing them to win with defense.

Lehigh was a fast paced team the last couple years, but they are playing much slower this year. Lehigh ranks 262nd out of 353 in average possession length. Lehigh lost their two best players from last year and their offense has been really inefficient this year. 

Both teams are good on the defensive glass. Neither team has gotten to the line much this season.

I had this game several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs have decided to play a completely different style of play this year. The Bulldogs stalled last year because they didn't have enough depth or talent. Asheville's coach Mike Morrell said before the year they would look to push the pace this year. They have the guard quickness and much improved depth to do it. They have definitely been running. Asheville ranks 64th in overall tempo so far this year. They have only scored less than 79 points in one game (against Tennessee). 

Western Carolina ranks 62nd in overall tempo. The Catamounts ranked 335th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They have improved some this year, but they have played a bunch of weak offensive teams. I think Asheville's offense will really test them here.

Asheville's defense is terrible. The Bulldogs are 350th out of 353 in effective field goal percentage defense. Western Carolina is pretty efficient offensively and they should be able to take advantage.

Both teams get to the line a lot and foul a lot. Both teams also get a lot of second chance opportunities on offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped to where I have value on the over. I considered this one last night, and the line has dropped quite a bit. Both of these teams are very efficient on offense. Northeastern's motion offense under Coen is tremendous. Davidson's offense under McKillop is very strong as well. These are two coaches many other coaches try to copy on the offensive end because they have run such good offense for years.

Davidson is mediocre defensively and Northeastern is bad on defense. Both teams should get open looks here. 

The spread is 1.5 and overtime is always possible in a spot like this as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks rank 15th in the nation in overall pace of play. They are moving extremely quickly under first year coach Billy Lange. St. Joe's is extremely bad on the defensive end though. The Hawks allowed 82 points against a weak offense in Old Dominion. They allowed 79 points against St. Francis (PA). They allowed 94 points against Lafayette. They allowed 85 points against Loyola Chicago. They now must take on the best offense they have faced this year. Villanova is second in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

Villanova shoots 40.2% from 3 point range. They should get a lot of open looks against a St. Joe's defense that ranks 343rd out of 353 in the nation in 3 point defense. Villanova is 90th in average possession length this year. They have sped up in a big way. If they want to play fast this is a great opportunity for them to do that. Villanova has scored 97 and 98 points already this year. Expect another big number here.

St. Joe's gets up a lot of 3's, and Nova hasn't been good at guarding beyond the arc. Look for the Hawks to find some open looks from long range.

The tempo here should be extremely quick.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans are definitely capable of putting up a lot of points, and that's why this total is so high. When they met a few days ago, the game didn't come close to this posted total.

This game will tip off at 1 pm local time on a Saturday afternoon. This is an extremely rare Saturday early afternoon game for these two teams. These early start times have been very good to under bettors in the NBA in the past decade. That has especially been the case when it is a divisional matchup.

Dallas has been slightly worse on offense and much better defensively at home this year. The Mavericks are clear favorites here, and that reduces the chances of overtime.

With an extremely high total and a divisional game in the early start time, I'll take the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas rank 4th in the nation in tempo so far this year. Central Michigan has consistently wanted to push the tempo over the past few seasons. This team will do the same again this season. The Chippewas have scored over 100 points in four games already this year. It wouldn't be stunning if they scored 100 here either. 

Tennessee Martin ranks 353rd out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. They rank 353rd in effective field goal percentage defense as well. They are consistently terrible too. Martin was 351st in that category last year as well. This is an awful defense. 

UT Martin doesn't turn the ball over much. They are also great on the offensive glass. They'll get second chance points against a Central Michigan team that has been very weak on the defensive boards in recent seasons. Central Michigan also ranks in the top 75 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. UT Martin is weak on the defensive glass. A lot of second chance points for both teams.

I don't normally take overs this high, but my number is several points higher than this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Weber State Coach Randy Rahe said before this season that he felt he tried to do something he just wasn't comfortable with last year when he had his team push the pace to the extreme. They are going back to slowing things down this year. The oddsmakers are trying to adjust, but I don't think this number is low enough.

Weber State has been unfortunate on defense. Opponents are shooting a whopping 82% from the free throw line against them. Opponents are also shooting 44.1% from long range. They have played some good shooting teams early in the year. These numbers can't be sustained.

Utah Valley has struggled with offensive efficiency under Mark Madsen, but this team is working hard on the defensive end. They have already had four games finish at 130 points or less on the year. 

This is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have changed the way they play this year. Yale was a fast paced team who could score in bunches last year with Miye Oni and Alex Copeland leading the way. Yale lost those top two players from a year ago, and James Jones decided this season the Bulldogs needed to hang their hat on their strong defense. 

Yale ranks 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. The Bulldogs have held Penn State to 58 points. They also held Vermont to 52 points. Yale ranks 274th in overall tempo this year compared to 41st a year ago.

Albany has almost always preferred to play slowly under Coach Will Brown. Albany is again playing slower than average this year. Albany hasn't played a team ranked better than 121st in effective field goal percentage defense this year. Yale ranks 6th and is far and away the best defense they have faced. 

Both Albany and Yale are good on the defensive glass and have done a nice job defending without fouling this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials are coached by first year coach Jamion Christian. He coached at Siena last year where his team finished 353rd (last in the country) in average possession length. George Washington isn't playing quite that slow, but they are looking to slow things down. 

Boston University has typically played to the pace of their opponent. Boston University's defensive tendencies should help out here. They have been better at guarding the 3 point shot than the inside shots under Joe Jones, and George Washington settles for a lot of 3's. 

Both of these teams have been poor at getting offensive rebounds. There shouldn't be many second chance scoring opportunities here.

I think this one should be around 130.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs aren't the same team they were last year. Asheville had to stall and try to keep games as low scoring as possible last year. Mike Morell is in his second year on the job here, and he made it clear he wanted his team to play much faster this year. Asheville is deeper and has more offensive weapons than they did a year ago. Asheville is still very weak defensively though.

Charlotte generally likes to play slowly, but the 49ers have shot the ball better than a year ago. The 49ers shoot better than 78% from the free throw line, and that could be key here since Asheville ranks in the top 20 in the country in fouling. 

Look for their to be enough pace here to get this one over the number based on Asheville's new style of play.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Valparaiso Crusaders were 304th in average possession length last year (out of 353 teams). Valpo was a bottom 50 tempo team thanks in large part due to all kinds of major injuries to their leading scorers a year ago. They had to slow down to stay in games.

Matt Lottich said before the season he wanted the Crusaders to play quicker. They have played much faster so far this year. Valpo is 56th out of 353 in average possession length this year. They played fast two years ago too, so it seems like this is a return to their old normal under Lottich. 

The Crusaders have yet to have a game this year finish under this number. Only one has finished below 143 points.

Eastern Michigan hasn't played against a team who ranks in the top 50% of the country in terms of pace all year thus far. That will change here. Eastern Michigan has been making a living at the free throw line on offense. The Eagles have had major trouble rebounding out of their matchup zone in the past. Valpo has been good on the offensive glass this year. 

With Valpo pushing the pace and both teams getting to the line a lot, I like the over at this low number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins were 11th in average possession length last year. They have been a really fast paced team for quite some time until this season. This year UCLA ranks 320th in average possession length. The Bruins have a new coach in Mick Cronin and he is working to install a completely different style of play.

UCLA has consistently played the slow pace this year, even when they are up against weaker opponents. The Bruins didn't even try to push the tempo against Chaminade in their recent trip to the Maui Invitational. 

UCLA has been hurt by teams who shoot the ball really well from outside. San Jose State is their opponent here, and San Jose State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. The Spartans are shooting 23.1% from 3 point range on the season. San Jose State relies heavily on getting second chances from their big men grabbing offensive rebounds. UCLA is a great defensive rebounding team.

San Jose State scored just 39 points against Arizona. The Spartans scored only 48 points against Oregon State.

UCLA should control this game and that should help the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT Cash* The Miami Heat are averaging 1.154 points per possession at home. Miami is averaging only 1.045 points per possession on the road. This is a Heat team that plays solid defense regardless of where they are though. Miami is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year thus far.

The Brooklyn Nets were 5th in the NBA in tempo before Kyrie Irving went down with an injury, but in their last eight games without him they rank 15th in tempo. Brooklyn's offensive efficiency has dropped from 15th to 23rd in the last eight games as well. On the other end, Brooklyn has improved a lot defensively. They were 19th in defensive efficiency before, but they are 9th in defensive efficiency in the last 8 games.

Miami ranks 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. This should be a slower paced game than normal. This is also an early start game on Sunday, and these have done well for under bettors in the past.

The under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders have picked up the pace in a big way so far this season. MTSU was 176th in average possession length last year. The Blue Raiders are 19th so far this season. They have yet to have a game played at anything less than 71 possessions. They are forcing the pace in a big way.

Belmont wants to run under new coach Casey Alexander. The Bruins have already played a game at 78 possessions and another at 80 possessions. Alexander is known as a tremendous offensive mind, and the Bruins should get a lot of open looks against a bad MTSU defense. 

MTSU allowed 93 points against Coastal Carolina. They also allowed 86 points against Tulane. Belmont is a better team than those two on the offensive end.

With both teams wanting to run and both offenses holding the advantage here, I expect to see a lot of points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes rank first in the nation in average possession length this year. The Dukes were 313th last year. Coach Rowe said before the season they were going to be much faster, and they have followed through with that tempo change in a big way.

East Carolina has yet to play a team that runs even close to as much as James Madison. In fact, East Carolina has played Liberty, Navy, and some other teams who play great defense and play very slowly. That has made their totals look pretty low heading into this game. That gives us some extra value here. The Pirates have typically played to the pace of their opponent.

Look for an up and down game where both teams score a lot. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The SE Missouri State Redhawks lost several of their top offensive players from last year. The Redhawks rank 276th in offensive efficiency so far this year, and they have played two teams who rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is likely to struggle on offense. 

Cal State Fullerton lost their top two scorers from a year ago. Ahmad and Allman took more than half of the team's shots last year and they ran the offense and led the team. Fullerton always works hard on the defensive end for Coach Taylor, but they have been inconsistent on offense. They should be worse on offense this year now that their stars are gone. In their four games against Division I opponents, Fullerton has yet to top 60 points this season! 

This is a neutral site game which is a plus for the under. 

Look for some sloppy basketball between two teams who turn it over a lot and don't have great scoring options.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* New Mexico State is 347th in average length of possession (353 teams). The Aggies take a bunch of time off the shot clock. New Mexico State's first two games in this tournament have had 120 points in regulation and 110 points. They are up against George Mason, who is 284th in the nation in tempo. 

George Mason is 185th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 71st in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team that is much better on defense than offense.

New Mexico State always ranks highly in defense as well.

This game is at a neutral site and both teams are playing for the 3rd straight day. A clear plus for the under. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their tempo of late. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to keep up with how much slower this team is playing. This team was top ten in tempo in the first couple weeks of the season. In the past 10 games, they rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA. 

Who is the slowest paced team in the NBA in past 10 games? The Sacramento Kings. Sacramento has been playing fairly slow all year, but they have gotten slightly slower in the last few weeks.

Philadelphia is only 15th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Sacramento is only 19th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 21st in defensive efficiency for the season, though they have improved in the last few games. The 76ers rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

I see this being a slow paced battle. It would take some very good shooting numbers to get this one over the total if the pace is what I expect it will be here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have played every single one of their games under this posted total. The Tigers have an excellent defense and a weak offense. Missouri is also good at controlling the pace of the game.

Oklahoma likes to play quickly, but the Sooners can go through scoring droughts at times. On the other end, Oklahoma is excellent defensively. Oklahoma should make life very difficult for the Missouri offense.

This is a neutral site game and those have done excellent toward the under early in the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Hard Rock Riviera where the under is 27-14 in games played there. This is known as an under gym. Neutral site games early in the season have been good under bets in the long term. 

South Carolina does like to play fast, but they are far better on defense than offense. Wichita State works hard to slow down the tempo of the game. Wichita State is much better on defense than offense. 

4 of Wichita State's 5 games have stayed under this total, and none of those games have been on neutral courts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Boston University and Northern Colorado prefer to play at a slow pace. Boston ranks 240th in overall tempo. Northern Colorado ranks 292nd in overall tempo. I wouldn't expect either team to be pushing pace here.

The Hard Rock Riviera in Mexico has been a really good under venue in the past. This is these teams first games in this facility, and I think that could lead to lower than average shooting numbers. 

Northern Colorado is a defense first team, and I would expect them to try to keep most of their games low scoring this year since they lost so much from last year. 

I think this is several points too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies play at the 347th quickest tempo out of 353 teams. They'll work hard to slow the game down. They are also a very good defensive team. USF is an average paced team, but they turn the ball over a bunch on offense and force a bunch of turnovers on defense. They have consistently had very low scoring games.

USF has only had one game so far this year that has gone over this very low total. 

This game is played in the Cayman Islands at a gym that is noted to be good for the under.

I expect a low scoring game here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins are a completely different team than last year. Mick Cronin's style of play is far different than what this program has been accustomed to. Cronin is a defensive-minded coach who wants to slow the game down and win low scoring battles. UCLA has already played 4 of their 5 games under this posted total.

BYU has slowed their tempo down drastically so far this year too. They were 54th quickest in average possession length last year. They rank 229th so far this year. BYU has a new coach in Mark Pope also.

I think both defenses will put forth a good effort in this one. 

This is a neutral site game which is a clear positive for the under. Early season neutral site contests have been very strong in the past 15 years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game that should have both teams motivated tonight. The Raptors edged the 76ers in the playoffs last year, and you know both teams remember that series very well.

I've been tracking the 76ers very closely of late. Philadelphia has clearly decided to slow down their tempo. They were ranking in the top ten in the NBA in tempo the first couple weeks of the season. If we look at only their last 10 games, the 76ers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo. A drastic slowdown. 

Toronto plays near the league average in tempo. The Raptors are 9th in defensive efficiency on the year. The 76ers are 8th in defensive efficiency. 

The Raptors rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the 76ers rank 13th. 

This is a big game for both teams, and the recent tempo of the 76ers makes me think they try to keep this pace slow. 

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs and Missouri Tigers meet at the Sprint Center in Kansas City tonight. Butler and Missouri are both teams who have a long history of wanting to slow the pace down and win low scoring games.

Missouri is a defensive-minded team under Coach Cuonzo Martin. They are 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. Butler ranks 29th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Missouri ranks 238th in pace (average possession length) and Butler ranks 336th. I would expect a very slow tempo in this game.

Missouri's contest against Xavier was 51-51 at the end of regulation. Butler's big game against Minnesota finished at 120 points.

A neutral site helps the under and we have a neutral court here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs lost some great players from last year's team. Yale pushed the tempo a lot more than normal last year. They are now slowing things down a lot more and trying to win with defense. Yale is 286th quickest (out of 353) in average possession length this year. They were 52nd last year. A huge slowdown. Yale is 9th in effective field goal percentage defense this year, so they have been terrific on defense.

Western Michigan has played two good defenses this year. They scored 58 points on Ole Miss and 63 points on Oklahoma State. The Broncos don't have enough scoring options to consistently put up a big number against quality defenses.

This game is played at HP Fieldhouse in Florida. This has consistently been a good under venue. An early start for two teams a long way from home as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies rank 345th in average possession length so far this year. There are 353 teams in the country. Clearly, the Aggies are intentionally slowing games down this year. Chris Jans' team has been excellent on defense the last two years. Their numbers aren't good so far this year, but they have played some really good offenses. Look for the Aggies to be solid on defense again.

Colorado State typically plays to the pace of their opponents. The Rams have played four terrible defenses and one great one (Duke). New Mexico State obviously isn't Duke defensively, but they should make Colorado State work.

This game is played at 11 am eastern in the Cayman Islands. This is a really long way from home for these two teams and a very early start on the body clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions are 349th in the country in tempo. Loyola is using nearly 21 seconds of the shot clock on average, so this is a team that is really stalling. Their last game against Air Force was played to an extremely slow 58 possessions. 

Loyola Marymount was expected to be a team that struggled offensively this year. The Lions have been better than expected so far this year. Still, as I look at who they have played I wonder if that has made the Lions offense look better than they really are this season. They have yet to play a team ranked any higher than 200th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense.

Duquesne ranks 86th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Dukes have slowed their tempo down quite a bit from a year ago. Duquesne is coached by Keith Dambrot, and he is known as a good defensive mind. 

This is a neutral site game and early season neutral contests have been strong to the under in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stetson Hatters are 332nd in the nation in tempo. First year coach Donnie Jones has this team stalling as much as possible. They played a 60-55 very slow paced game against Iona yesterday. Iona is normally a very fast paced team.

Monmouth plays fairly fast, but they aren't efficient on offense. The Hawks are 276th in offensive efficiency in the country. Stetson is 313th in offensive efficiency in the country.

HP Field House is a neutral site host for this game. The under is 17-9 in the last 26 games played at this venue.

I think this game is lined a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders are stalling in a way I haven't seen before. UC Riverside is using a whopping 22.5 seconds of the shot clock on average. That is nearly one second per possession slower than the second slowest team out of 353 in the nation. For example, Virginia is using 21.1 seconds per possession, and they have often been thought of as a team that is the slowest in the country.

Denver prefers to play slowly as well. Denver is 283rd in tempo so far this year. Denver has played against some pretty fast paced opponents so far this year, but that will change on Saturday against UC Riverside.

With the tempo I expect this game to be played at, it would take some very good shooting numbers to get this one past the total.

UC Riverside's first four games against Division I opponents have finished with this many total points: 113 points, 109 points, 111 points, and 109 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes have completely changed the way they play. James Madison was 313th in average possession length last year, so they were a very slow team (1st being the quickest and 353rd the slowest). 

Where do they rank so far this year? James Madison is 2nd in the country. Coach Rowe said in the offseason that they wanted to completely change the way they play and they have followed through on that. 

New Hampshire has played to the pace of their opponent so far this year. New Hampshire is likely to be behind, so they won't be able to slow things down much here.

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough based on the new tempo James Madison is playing at this season.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes ran up the score on Mississippi Valley State, and that has made their totals since then too high. Utah isn't going to be able to score 143 points or even close to that on anyone else the rest of the season. Utah plays relatively quickly, but I don't expect them to stay as fast as they are right now in the tempo rankings. They played abnormally fast in that one game against Mississippi Valley State. Their games since have been exactly at an average tempo.

Ohio is going to be working hard to slow down the pace in this game. The Bobcats have had major trouble with turning over the basketball so far this year on offense. Ohio doesn't have great athleticism and they don't want to get into track meets. The Bobcats do have a very defensive-minded coach in Jeff Boals.

This is at a neutral site which is a positive for the under. Shooting numbers tend to be lower at these sites. In the long run the under has done very well on neutral courts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game is played at Madison Square Garden. This is the best under venue in all of college basketball. It is a huge arena with a unique backdrop. 

Duke is always thought of as an offensive team, but many of their newcomers this year are even better on defense than offense. Duke is second in defensive efficiency so far this year, and I would expect them to stay in the top five all year. The Blue Devils have some elite perimeter defenders.

Georgetown does push the pace, but the Hoyas haven't gone against a defense with the same length and athleticism as Duke so far this year. 

Duke is a 13 point favorite here. The under has done well in games where Duke is a double digit favorite in the long run. Coach K's teams do slow the tempo late when they are winning.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions are about as good as anyone at slowing a game down. They did that again yesterday. Their win over Air Force had only 61 possessions. Loyola Marymount just shot lights out in that win. They averaged 1.28 points per possession in that game. For a team that was expected to struggle mostly on offense this year, that was a very surprising performance. I think they are likely to regress to the mean some on offense here. 

Indiana State had 49 fouls called in their game yesterday which made that game edge past the posted total. It's unlikely we will see that many fouls in this game. 

This is a neutral court game which is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMBC Retrievers try to slow the game to a crawl. They don't have good outside shooters. That's a big problem against Eastern Michigan's zone defense that packs it in the paint and tries to force you to beat them from outside.  Eastern Michigan can be vulnerable on the offensive boards with their zone defense as well. UMBC though has ranked in the bottom 100 in offensive rebounding the last two years.

Eastern Michigan held North Texas to 51 points on the road in their last game. The Eagles only put up 56 points. The Eagles have a lot of questions on offense, and UMBC has consistently been a very good defensive team.

Both of these teams project as very low scoring teams, and this is a neutral site contest that is a positive for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana State Sycamores have been a very good defensive team under coach Greg Lansing. Last year's team didn't live up to expectations on the defensive end, and Lansing made it clear that was a priority for this year. I expect them to be at least some better on defense this season. 

Keith Dambrot coached the Akron Zips for quite a few years. He had many good defensive teams. Dambrot's teams have often been better on defense than offense. Duquesne ranks 55th in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. 

Both of these teams play at a slightly slower than average pace. There shouldn't be all that many possessions in this game. 

This is played at a neutral court in the Bahamas. Early season neutral court contests are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions ranked 349th out of 353 teams in average possession length last year. They rank 343rd out of 353 in the country this year. Loyola is clearly trying to use as much clock as possible and keep games low scoring. 

Air Force always plays at a slower than average tempo, and I don't see them forcing the tempo much in this one. The Falcons had a couple high scoring games in their first two games of the season. Their last two games have finished with 126 points and 119 points. 

Loyola Marymount scored 67 points against Nevada and 64 points against Colorado State. Both of those teams are pushing the pace, and neither of them are very good on defense.

This is played at a neutral court in the Bahamas. Early season neutral court contests are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have the talent to be an excellent defensive team. They rank 10th in defensive efficiency so far this year. Philadelphia has also slowed their pace down this year. The 76ers are 15th in the league in tempo overall. In the past six games alone, the 76ers are 24th in the NBA in tempo. 

The New York Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace. The Knicks rank 27th in pace for the year and 28th in pace in the last six games only. New York is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Knicks shot extremely well in their last game, a win over Cleveland, but they'll face a much tougher test here. 

The 76ers offense is only 18th in offensive efficiency. Philadelphia has been inconsistent on the offensive end.

This is a divisional game where the home team is a clear favorite, and those matchups have been good to under bettors in the past decade in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Holy Cross Crusaders have a new coach in Brett Nelson. Nelson has changed their style of play drastically. Before, Holy Cross would run the clock down low every possession with the Princeton offense of Bill Carmody. Nelson wants the team to push the pace at every opportunity. 

Holy Cross games have averaged 6.5 possessions per game more than they did a year ago. The Crusaders lost their best defensive players from last year, and they are going to be very weak on defense this year. They rank 320th in defensive efficiency so far this year in the country, so it has been a major struggle. They even allowed 87 points to a New Hampshire team that ranked dead last at 353rd in the counry in offensive efficiency last year.

Northeastern's Bill Coen runs a great motion offense. This team constantly moves without the ball and gets great looks at the basket. Northeastern was 13th in effective field goal percentage offense two years ago. They were 5th last year. They are 21st in the country so far this year. Look for them to get a lot of wide open looks against Holy Cross.

Two of Holy Cross' three games this year have finished at 166 points or higher. Northeastern has seen an average of 149.5 points scored in their games (3 of 4 have finished at 145 or higher).

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Before the season new Fairfield coach Jay Young said of his team "Scoring is going to be a big concern." First of all, it is very rare you'll see a coach say that about their team before a season. At the same time, it is refreshing to see someone who just is honest and calls out their weakness from day one. 

Indeed it has been a struggle for Fairfield on the offensive end. Fairfield ranks 303rd in offensive efficiency so far this year. The Stags are averaging 61 points per game in regulation in their first three contests. They are also playing at an extremely slow tempo. They are looking to turn these games into grinders.

Loyola Maryland has played to the pace of the opponent most of the time the last couple seasons. The Greyhounds aren't likely to be out in transition too much here. They scored only 53 points on Marquette and 53 points against Old Dominion as well.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have made it abundantly clear in their first four games that they want to stall. Dartmouth ranks 339th in the nation in average possession length. This ranks them among the 15 slowest teams in the country. 

It's pretty rare to see a total set this high when one team is playing so slowly. Dartmouth's final totals so far this year have been 131 points, 104 points, 101 points, and 94 points. 

UMass Lowell was willing to play a slow paced game with Merrimack yesterday. This one will likely be played quicker than that game, but I still see a tempo in the mid 60's (possessions) as likely. 

Both teams have been good at defending without fouling the last couple seasons. They have both also been good at clearing defensive rebounds.

This total is several points too high.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and Stony Brook both want to play at a slow pace. These are two teams who are comfortable playing physical halfcourt games where possessions are at a premium. Both teams are good on the defensive glass, which should limit how many second chance opportunities there are in this one.

This is a neutral site game in Texas in the early afternoon. Neither team is close at all to home and this is a relatively large arena (8,500 capacity) that will be mostly empty for this game. These situations are helpful for the under. The shooting backdrop isn't as good in these cases. 

North Dakota State relies on the 3 ball a lot, and the 3 point line being moved back this year could hurt their efficiency. Stony Brook has a lot of offensive question marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are playing a stingy zone defense. Joe Gallo is known for his defensive prowess, and he has this new Division I team working really hard in their unique zone defense. This is a morphing zone where they deny far more passes to the wing than most zones do. They held Northwestern to 61 points. They then held Dartmouth to 55 points. Yesterday, they held UMass Lowell to 58 points.

Merrimack wants to slow the game down. They rank 316th overall in the country in tempo. They settle for too many bad 3 pointers on the offensive end.

Jacksonville is 265th in overall tempo and 302nd in average possession length. They should be happy to play a slow tempo here as well.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles have one of the worst offenses in the country. Tennessee Tech scored only 30 points on Friday in a blowout loss to UNC Greensboro. While I can't expect them to put up such a low point total again, I wouldn't expect a lot of points from them here. This is a team that turns the ball over at such a high percentage that they waste all sorts of possessions. 

Appalachian State plays at a slightly slower pace than average. Tennessee Tech plays at a slow pace as well.

This is an early season neutral site game, and these have been very strong to the under in the long run. This number is quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have been really impressive so far this year. Dartmouth has been able to control the pace of the game in each of their three games. They are 3-0 on the year. Dartmouth ranks 336th in average possession length so far this year. There has been an average of just 112 points total in Dartmouth's three games so far this year.

Jacksonville has played at a pace slower than average so far this year as well. Tony Jasick's team tends to play to the pace of their opponent more often than not.

This game is at a neutral site, and early games at neutral sites in college basketball has been a strong angle to the under in recent seasons. Rule changes for this year have made that an even stronger angle.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Through two games UC Riverside is using an average of 25.1 seconds of the 30 second shot clock. That is far slower than anyone else in the country so far this year. The Highlanders should do the same thing again here.

Sacramento State lost their star offensive player in Marcus Graves from last year's team. This offense is likely to be pretty inefficient without him. The Hornets tend to prefer playing at a slow pace as well.

This is a game that should be played in the halfcourt, and we have two offenses with a bunch of question marks. The new rules are helpful to the under since both teams likely have to settle for some bad 3's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green always want to slow the game down. Dartmouth ranked 295th in average length of possession two years ago. They ranked 321st a year ago. So far this season, they rank 328th in tempo. 

Merrimack College is transitioning to Division I this year. Joe Gallo is a really good head coach. He has this team playing a unique zone defense that really bothered Northwestern in Merrimack's stunning win over the Wildcats in their last game. I would expect most of Merrimack's games to be played at a fairly slow pace based on their extended zone.

This game is being played at a neutral site. Neutral site unders have done really well in the past thanks to lower shooting numbers. This year the 3 point line being moved back is an extra positive for a situation like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose had a nice year last year. They lost just about everyone from last year's team though. That included their head coach Dustin Kerns, who did a great job with this program. The Blue Hose didn't return a single double digit scorer this year. 

Presbyterian has a new head coach in Quinton Ferrell. Ferrell was an assistant coach at College of Charleston, where they have been known for their relatively slow pace and extremely strong defense. In their first couple games of the year, Presbyterian has slowed the game down quite a bit. This isn't a team with much scoring depth, and I think they'll want to play lower scoring games.

Morehead State ranks among the 30 slowest paced teams in the nation so far this year when it comes to average length of possession. They slowed down a Samford team that wants to play very quickly. The Eagles aren't likely to be pushing the pace too hard here either.

With the new rules in college basketball helping the under thus far, a total like this between two teams who lack scorers is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under*   (4 star play down to 128- 3 star play down to 125.5*

Wyoming has slowed their pace down to a crawl this year. The oddsmakers have adjusted, but I don't believe they have adjusted enough. Wyoming played really quick a couple years ago, and they were in the middle of the pack this year. They should finish among the 5 or 10 slowest teams in the country in pace this season. They will likely be a decent team defensively, but their offense is inefficient. 

Fullerton lost their two star scorers in Ahmad and Allman. The Titans are one of the better defensive teams in the Big West. Fullerton offensively should struggle with efficiency this year as they look to find a new identity on the offensive end. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Missouri State was an automatic under last year, and until I see something different I'm riding the under train again here. Missouri State uses up the clock very well and they play excellent defense. Cleveland State has slowed down so far this year, and I don't think they'll push the pace. This is a Cleveland State offense that is very inefficient as well.

I see this one staying in the 120's. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Tuesday night.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Star TOP Play Over* The Mississippi State Delta Devils have played at a ridiculous pace in their first three games. Their defense is arguably the worst in the country as well. The Delta Devils have given up 110, 143, and 134 points in their first three games.

Western Michigan does play slower than those other teams. I don't think the Broncos will score 130 points, but I also think they'll put up a big number. This will be the worst defense they face all year. 

I think this one is lined quite a bit too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida A&M Rattlers got much better defensively last year. Florida A&M went from 289th in effective field goal percentage defense two years ago to 70th a year ago. The Rattlers do have significant problems on the offensive end though. Florida A&M ranked 347th in the country averaging only 0.894 points per possession a year ago.

Florida A&M was also among the 40 slowest teams in the country in terms of pace last year. They will play slowly again this season. Florida A&M saw 6 of their first 9 games last year stay at 128 points or lower. Their first three games this year have finished with totals of 125, 115, and 130 points.

South Dakota is the much better team here, and they should be able to coast to a victory. The Coyotes have been great from 3 point range so far this year, but some regression should be expected there. Florida A&M has been good at defending the 3 ball the last couple years too.

South Dakota has been happy to slow the pace of the game down with a lead under Todd Lee. I would expect the same here.

This is a neutral site game and that is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dusty May has a really deep team, and he has said that he wants his team to be uptempo on offense. May said the team is healthier this year (Ingram and Sebree were hurt last year), and their improved depth will help them play faster.

We all know Nate Oats wants to run at Alabama. It is no secret that Oats had great success at Buffalo by forcing the pace in a big way. The slowest overall tempo his teams at Buffalo had still ranked 39th in the country in fastest paced. The last two seasons, Buffalo's average possession length was among the five fastest in the nation.

Alabama played their first game to 84 possessions- so they were absolutely flying up and down the court in that one.

We should see a really quick pace here, so if we can avoid an ugly shooting night- I like the chances of this one being a high scoring affair. 

I think both of these teams have improved offenses from a year ago.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Denver Nuggets have played at by far the slowest pace in the NBA. Denver is averaging just 97.05 possessions per game. That is nearly two full possessions per game slower than the second slowest team in the league. 

Minnesota is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the league. The Timberwolves do play fast, but a closer look at their schedule so far and you'll see they have played a lot of very fast paced teams. Minnesota hasn't played a team all year ranked slower than 20th in tempo. They have also played 5 of their 8 games against teams ranked in the top nine in the NBA in tempo. 

Denver ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 15th. Therse two teams rank 20th and 22nd in offensive efficiency.

Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the long run in the NBA. Sunday divisional unders have done particularly well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* St. John's put up 109 points against Mercer in their first game. Mike Anderson brings renewed energy to this St. John's basketball program. The Red Storm have a bunch of quickness and Anderson believes the talent matches his scheme nicely. Anderson's teams always want to run and full court press. St. John's forced that first game to a blistering pace of 83 possessions.

Central Connecticut State coach Donyell Marshall has talked about wanting to play quick. If they want to play quick- here is their chance. C Conn State's defense is very weak and they turn it over a lot. St. John's should put up a really big number here. 

If the pace is as quick as I believe it will be here, it won't even take great shooting numbers to get to this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders have done really well early in the season in college basketball. Since 2005, in games 1-8 of the season on a neutral court and a total of 134 or higher the under is 55.1%. That's a large sample size.

This game is played in Hawaii and neither team is accustomed to playing here. There have been some really low scoring games in neutral site games here in the past. This is a gym with a bit of a poor shooting backdrop, and Hawaii is obviously a long way away from home for both teams.

Pacific doesn't have enough offensive weapons to play quickly. Damon Stoudamire's team has slowed the pace down significantly in the last couple seasons. 

South Dakota and Pacific are two good defensive rebounding teams. I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen host the Veteran's Classic on Friday night. This is a game that means a lot to the Navy program for obvious reasons. East Carolina is their opponent here. 

East Carolina ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. Navy ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. 

Navy struggled with getting a lot of their shots blocked last year. East Carolina is the tallest team in the country. They'll likely get quite a few blocked in this game.

East Carolina shot 28.4% from 3 last year and Navy shot 31.7% from 3 point range a year ago. The 3 point line has been moved back this year and thus far it has resulted in games that are quite a bit lower scoring. 

Both teams turn the ball over a bunch, so there should be a lot of wasted possessions. 

Navy used up 21.7 seconds of the shot clock on average in their first game against George Mason. That game was 52-52 at the end of regulation. They'll work hard to grind this game to a halt as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals System Play* Divisional games under the total in the NBA has been a good angle in the long run. That is especially true early in the season. 

I like taking divisional unders that are contrarian plays. Divisional unders where less than half the bets are on the under and less than half the money is on the under have done extremely well in the long run. How good has this angle been overall? For the whole season overall- the under is 309-235 (56.8% unders). In the first 30 games of the season, this system is at 60.5%.

Jeremy Lamb is out for the Pacers here, and he has been a big scorer (17 ppg) so far this year. The Pistons are without Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose (20.8 ppg this year). Blake Griffin is also still out.

There aren't enough scorers here for this game to be lined this high. Both of these teams play slower than average and I like this system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maine Black Bears coach says they want to continue to use a "deliberate" pace. Maine was 342nd in the nation in length of possession on offense last year. Maine was also 335th in offensive efficiency. In 31 games against Division I opponents, Maine saw only 10 of their games get past this posted total. Only 8 of their 31 games went over this total in regulation.

Merrimack College transitions over to Division I this year. Merrimack is coached by Joe Gallo who was an assistant at Robert Morris a few years ago, and his team plays zone almost all the time. Their 2-3 zone will often slow the game down and force opponents to hit shots from the outside. Merrimack faces a Maine team that has shot 29.6% and 31.0% from 3 point range the last two years. 

Maine's defense should improve a bit under Richard Barron this year. The Black Bears were solid on the defensive glass last year.

Look for a slow pace in this one and I like it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Duquesne is in the middle of a couple major transitions. Leading scorer and rebounder Eric Williams transferred to Oregon in the offseason. Frankie Hughes was the team's fourth leading scorer, and he is out with an injury. Duquesne will be relying on some youngsters in the backcourt. 

The Dukes weren't bad on defense last year, but they gave up far too many second chance points. Princeton consistently ranks near the bottom of the nation in offensive rebounds. 

Princeton lost Myles Stephens in the offseason, and there are a lot of questions about who their go to scoring options will be. The Tigers prefer to use clock on offense and they don't get to the line very much.

Princeton excels at defensive rebounding, and Duquesne got a lot of offense from second chance opportunities last year.

PPG Paints Arena (hockey arena) is where this one will be played. Duquesne doesn't really have a home gym while there campus arena is being worked on. PPG Paints arena has seen 6 of the last 8 games played here go under the total. Of those six games that have gone under- all but one of them stayed under the number by 12 points or more. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Finals Game 6 CASH* The Golden State Warriors stayed alive by winning Game 5 in Toronto. That was a game with all kinds of drama. The Raptors made a big run and appeared to be on the brink of winning it, but then the Warriors made a run to finish the game and won by two. 

Kevin Durant's injury was painful to watch, and it was a shame to see his season end in that fashion. Durant's absence hurts the Warriors a lot on offense. They are clearly still a very good offense with Curry and Thompson, but Durant can be unguardable. Toronto can now try to take their chances on leaving Green and Iguodala open from long range.

Toronto's supporting cast has been inconsistent on offense at times throughout the offseason. Leonard should have another good game here, but we will see what the Raptors do from long range.

These two teams are both very underrated on the defensive end. Golden State's defense was excellent in the closing minutes in Game 5. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism, and they are a tough matchup.

The pace has gotten slower in each of the last three games. As the game means more, things usually slow down. The tempo started at about 100 possessions per game, and the last two games have been 94.5 and 94 possessions. I wouldn't see any reason to expect a faster paced game here. It's a potential close out game and these have been very strongly toward the under in the past decade. 

Look for a hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Bucks/Raptors Game 6 CASH* The Raptors have stunned just about everyone by winning three straight in this series. Toronto has really picked up their intensity on the defensive end. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism and they have made it very difficult on the Bucks to get into an offensive rhythm the last few games.

Milwaukee ranked number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have great shot blockers and good perimeter defenders as well. The Raptors have knocked down a lot of long range jumpers in the last couple games.

The pace of these games has gotten slower by the contest. The tempo in game 4 was 96 possessions and in game 5 it was 95 possessions. As the games get more important, we often see the pace slow down. 

This is a potential close out game, and these have been great under plays in the postseason in the last decade in the NBA.

I'll say the pace sits at 95 possessions or so again here. If both teams averaged around 1.10 points per possession (slightly above average in the NBA postseason), that would put the projected total at 209 points. 

This is a very important game for both teams and I would expect a lot of intensity on defense.

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Under* I had the under in game 6 between these two and lost, but with the way the game played out I have to take the under again here in a win or go home situation for both teams.

In game 6 the tempo was just 92.5 possessions. That was the slowest game of the series thus far. The tempo tends to slow down as the games become more important. I would expect a slow tempo again here. 

The teams shot extremely well in game 6. Portland averaged a whopping 1.280 points per possession. During the season they averaged 1.136 points per possession. The Nuggets put up 1.174 points per possession in game 6, compared to their season average of 1.121. 

These teams allowed 1.080 (Denver) and 1.095 (Portland) points per possession on average in the regular season. 

If we take the tempo from last game at 92.5 and project that again here, which I think is a solid guess, and then give each team their season average in points per possession we would get a projected total of 209 here. If we use the points per possession that they allowed during the season overall we would get a projected total of 202. Both are clearly below this posted total.

There were 52 (out of 62) made free throws in game six, and in an average NBA game there are only about 45 free throws even attempted, and 35 made free throws is about average. If we get average free throws here that knocks off 17 points from last game. 

There were also 27 made 3's last game and the average for these two teams would be around 22.

Both teams averaged 30.8% offensive rebounds during the season, but they got back 44.0% and 33.3% of their misses in game 6. That should level out a bit in game 7.

There are plenty of reasons to like this one. Game 7's are definitely lower scoring on average and the offensive efficiency numbers were extremely high last game. This is the value play given the situation. If they shoot lights out again and it goes over the total so be it, but this is the type of play that will win more times than it will lose.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets blew away the Portland Blazers on Tuesday night. I think we'll see a different game on Thursday night in game six. 

Portland has their backs against the wall and they should respond with a much stronger effort here. Still, the Blazers aren't the same team without Nurkic on the inside. Kanter is banged up as well and he isn't the offensive force he could be when healthy. 

The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace through the first five games is 94.43 possessions. The last two games have seen very high shooting percentages overall. In game 5, there were a whopping 61 free throw attempts. Neither of these teams get to the line all that often on average. 

The tempo generally slows down in these huge games, but even if we project a pace of 94.5 possessions both teams averaging 1.13 points per possession would still keep this game under the total. That is a very solid shooting night, and the defenses generally get better in these closeout games. 

I like the extra value on the under in this big of a game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I took the under in Game 6 between these two and lost. I'm taking the under again in Game 7. There are quite a few reasons for this play. 

First of all, game 6 and game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been very good to under bettors. The under is 95-67 in Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs since 2005. That's a good starting point.

Game 6 finished at 223 points, 12 points above this total. There were a lot of reasons that game 6 was high scoring that you wouldn't expect to be replicated here. 

-The Spurs averaged an insane 1.333 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.122 points per possession during the season.

-The Nuggets averaged 1.144 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.121 points per possession in the regular season. 

-The Nuggets got 39% of their misses back in Game 6. They led the league in offensive rebounding percentage, but their percentage in the season was 30%. 

-The Spurs got 29.7% of their misses back in Game 6. They averaged only 24.6% offensive rebounding percentage in the season.

-The teams turned the ball over on only 7.8% and 8.9% of their possessions in Game 6.

Finally, the pace of the game was just 90 possessions. That was easily the slowest paced game in the series thus far. The bigger the stakes the more likely the game is to slow down. If this game plays to 92 possessions (2 quicker than last game), both teams could shoot their season average and this game would finish 5 points under the total.

With game six being high scoring because of amazing shooting numbers, we get extra value on this game. If they shoot lights out again so be it. This is the right play to make as far as value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clippers stunned everyone by winning at Golden State again in Game 5. We head back to LA for Game 6, and I see value on the under here.

There were 250 points scored in Game 5. A closer look at the shooting percentages and the tempo in that game makes me like the under here. Why? Game 5 was played at the slowest pace of the series. A tempo of 97.5 possessions. Each of the last three games has finished with a slower pace than the previous contest.

How did they score so many points last game? Extremely high shooting percentages and more offensive rebounds than normal. The Clippers averaged a whopping 1.316 points per possession. The Warriors averaged a really impressive 1.247 points per possession. 

The Warriors defense is better than they showed last game, and Steve Kerr was really unhappy with their defensive effort. I expect better defense from them in this contest.

If we get the same tempo as last game, and I think that's a good guess, both teams could average 1.18 points per possession and the total points would be at 230 points.

These teams can shoot the ball well, but this is an extremely high total for game 6 in the NBA playoffs.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs go home down 3-2 to the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs were up 2-1 in this series, but have had a couple poor performances in a row. You would expect a really well-coached team like the Spurs to play better in a game like this one. 

These two teams rank 23rd and 25th at getting to the free throw line. The Spurs rank 2nd at defending without fouling. The Nuggets rank 12th. Unless the refs turn this thing into a ref show, you wouldn't expect a lot of free throws here.

The average pace in the last 3 games of this series has been 93.5 possessions. At 93.5 possessions, both teams averaging an impressive 1.10 points per possession would lead to a projected total at 205.7 points. 

As the games get more important, the defense generally turns it up a notch in the NBA playoffs. The tempo tends to slow down a bit more as well. 

Here's a system to consider:

First round of the NBA playoffs with a total of 191 to 209

-Home team with a win percentage of 60% or lower

-Spread between home team -4.5 and +7.5

-The percentage of tickets on the under is 45% or lower

In this situation the under is a whopping 47-10. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors lead the Clippers 3-1 and they are a big favorite here to finish out this series. 

Golden State dropped game two to the Clippers. Golden State played the ultra fast paced game that the Clippers wanted in that game. The Warriors have turned the dial on the tempo the last couple games. 

Golden State averaged 1.149 points per possession in the regular season. In this series, they are at 1.186. 

The first two games were played to a pace of 108.5 possessions. The last two games in this series have played to 99.75 possessions. 

If we assume there will be around 100 possessions in this game- the Warriors could average 1.9 points per possession (119 points) and that leaves the Clippers needing to score more than 113 for this to go over.

Two of the best under refs in the business are calling this game in Goble and Davis.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Super System CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic are down 2-1 to the Toronto Raptors. All three games in this series have stayed under the total. In fact, they have all stayed under this total, which has been adjusted down a bit. 

These two teams have played 7 games this year. The average final total in those games has been 202 points. These teams are consistently playing at a slow tempo against each other. 

Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in free throw attempts per game. Orlando ranks dead last in free throw attempts per game. Orlando is 5th best at not fouling on defense. Toronto is 11th best at not fouling on defense.

Both of these teams are below average at getting second chance opportunities. 

The Raptors have some serious defensive talent on their roster now. Kawhi Leonard is as good as they come on defense. Danny Green is a very good defender. Marc Gasol is a good defender in the low post. Serge Ibaka is a very good defender as well. 

The Magic are scrappy on defense and they will make Toronto work on the offensive end.

There's a big system that this game fits.

-A 1st round NBA playoff game

-The total of 191 to 209

-Home team win percentage of 60% or lower

-Road team win percentage of 50% to 73%

-Home team favored by 4.5 points or is an underdog

In this situation the under is a stunning 62-19 in the last 81 (76.5%).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers controlled the tempo and had a very real chance to win the game in Boston in Game 2. Indiana led by 2 points with 52 seconds left. The Pacers losing by 8 and failing to cover 7.5 is one of the worst NBA beats I've ever seen.

Indiana knows they need this game badly. They aren't likely to change their game plan here. Their game plan was working in game two. Keep the Celtics out of transition and use the clock on offense. 

The shooting numbers weren't all that bad last game, but the game only got to 190 points. The game was played to only 94 possessions. I think Indiana gets their preferred tempo again here.

Boston ranked 29th in the NBA at getting to the free throw line during the regular season. Indiana ranked 25th. These two don't normally get to the line much. 

The under is 20-7 in the Pacers last 27 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Orlando Magic were beaten badly in game two. I like to play unders in game 3 when the home team was beaten soundly in game two. 

This is a chance for the home team to attempt to rally the troops and put forth a better effort, and more times than not it comes from improved play on the defensive end. Orlando wants to slow this game down, and I expect them to work to slow the tempo a lot on their home floor. 

These teams have met six times this year. Four of the six games have stayed under this total. The average final total has been 204.33 points. This is a playoff game that means much more than the regular season meetings did, and playoff games have historically been quite a bit lower scoring. 

Orlando ranks last in the league at getting to the free throw line. Toronto ranks 21st. Unless there is a ref show, you wouldn't expect a bunch of free throws when these two teams meet.

Here's a totals playoff system I have followed in recent seasons with success.

-Total of 195.5 or higher 

-Home team is between -2.5 and +5.5 in the game 

-The home team is coming off a loss of 6 points or more

-The home team has won 63% or less of their games in the regular season

-The under is getting 45% or less of the bets

The under is a whopping 37-8 (82.2% wins) in the last 45 contests that fit this criteria. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers made a massive comeback to win over Golden State in stunning fashion in Game 2 at Oracle Arena. 

Golden State is clearly the best team in the NBA, and the Warriors aren't likely to shut it down in the 3rd quarter as they did last game. Steve Kerr made it clear he wasn't happy with the Warriors defense in the second half of Game 2. 

While Golden State is obviously a great offensive team, most don't realize how good this Warriors defense can be when they are highly motivated. The under is 24-8-1 in the Warriors last 33 games following a loss. I don't think that's an accident. The under is also 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 125 points or more in their last game.

There were a whopping 65 made free throws in Game 2. An average made free throws number for these two teams would be in the upper 30's. Last game was an outlier. Could there be a bunch of made FT's here again? Yes, but we shouldn't expect that number to be repeated.

Both teams shot the ball very well from the floor last game. This game has a little extra on the line now with the series at 1-1.

The line has been adjusted upward by the oddsmakers. This is an extremely high playoff total. An average of 59 points per quarter puts this one just under the total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors are down 1-0 after Orlando stunned them in game one. In game one, Orlando was able to slow the pace down quite a bit. The game played to 98.5 possessions. The shooting was a bit below average, but it wasn't terrible. Orlando averaged 1.051 points per possession and Toronto averaged 1.031 points per possession. 

Late in the regular season, Orlando was very good defensively. Toronto was also strong defensively to finish out the year. Orlando ranked 7th in defensive efficiency in the last 15 games. Toronto ranked 4th in defensive efficiency. 

Orlando ranked 25th in pace of play and Toronto ranked 15th. Neither team pushes the pace to any kind of extreme level.

Two of the three best under referees in the NBA are on this game in Marc Davis and John Goble. 

Neither of these teams have been particularly strong at offensive rebounding, and that helps with avoiding second chance points.

There hasn't been an adjustment down in this total like there was in most of the other contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* There has been a lot of money come in on the under in this game. The total opened at 219 and has been bet down six points. I think this move has been overdone. 

Utah is a much better offensive team than they were a year ago. Utah got significantly better on offense late in the season this year. The Jazz were third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 15 games of the season. Who was first? The Houston Rockets. 

Houston's coaching staff has been quoted as saying they have to get the tempo going even quicker than normal here to prevent Utah's big men from setting up on the defensive end. Look for the Rockets to move the ball around quickly and try to get up some shots early in the shot clock here. 

Utah can sometimes shoot a poor percentage from the floor and still score quite a few points. The Jazz have been pretty good on the offensive boards, and Houston ranks second worst in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Houston has scored 111 points or more in 12 of their last 13 games. Utah has scored 109 points or more in 16 straight games. The big move on the under has created some value on the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle Crusher* The Spurs and Nuggets have met four times this year. All four games went under the total. The stakes are clearly higher now with this being a playoff contest. The tempo generally slows down in the playoffs and the defenses work a little harder. 

Both San Antonio and Denver slowed their pace down late in the regular season, and I don't see any reason to expect them to speed things up now that the games mean even more. Denver ranked second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last 15 games of the year. The Spurs were fourth slowest.

Denver hasn't been all that efficient on offense overall this year. It has been their second chance points that can really do damage. The Spurs rank sixth in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spurs are 24th in offensive rebounding percentage, so I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities for them.

The under is 9-0 in the Spurs last 9 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on two days of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in Denver's last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense, and it isn't even very close. You have to love what the Red Raiders are doing defensively under Chris Beard. Beard is an elite head coach and he has this team working so hard on defense. As he has said before, defense is a way of life in his program. If you don't defend well, you won't play for Chris Beard.

Michigan State's defense is a lot better than most people realize. The Spartans have played the second toughest schedule in the country this year, and they haven't allowed an opponent to average more than 1.12 points per game all year. They have been so consistently strong defensively. Michigan State has a couple very good defenders in Matt McQuaid and Aaron Henry to throw at Jarrett Culver.

Texas Tech and Michigan State have both struggled with turnovers on offense this year, and I do think there will be quite a few wasted possessions in this game. Neither team likes to push the pace very much, and both teams are very physical. As long as we don't get a ref show here, I think the defenses will have the upper hand all the way.

Michigan State loves to run the pick and roll with Winston, but Texas Tech is elite at defending that play. Texas Tech is reliant on Culver getting into the lane, but Michigan State should have a good defensive plan ready for him.

Shooting numbers have historically been lower in these huge stadiums built for football rather than basketball. That's another plus in this one.

A very hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic right now due to injury. The Blazers have still been good, but their upside is certainly limited without those guys. 

Portland has slowed their pace down a bit without two of their best players. Portland ranked 16th in the NBA in tempo up until the McCollum injury. In their last ten games, they rank 24th in the NBA in tempo. 

Denver ranks 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Nuggets have slowed the pace down drastically in recent weeks.

Denver has been better defensively of late as well. Denver ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games.  Portland has been solid defensively also of late. Portland ranks 10th in defensive efficiency in their last ten games.

I like to look for unders late in the season in the NBA in games that mean a lot to both teams. Denver sits in second in the Western Conference standings. Portland sits 4th in the standings and they are only two games behind Denver. 

The under is 6-0 in the Nuggets last 6 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 when they are off a win of 10 points or more. A 16-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Denver Nuggets offense has been a mess of late. In their last 8 games, Denver ranks last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. It's hard to imagine, but yes they are actually behind the Bulls and the Knicks during their last eight games. 

Denver's defense has been solid during this time. The Nuggets rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games.

San Antonio is playing at the 28th fastest pace out of 30 teams in the league in their last eight games. Denver ranks 29th in tempo during that time. Both of these teams have been slowing the game down.

Late in the season, unders between good teams have been very good in recent seasons. The angle is stronger when they are teams from the same conference. This one definitely fits.

The under is 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 vs. a Western Conference foe. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets last 5 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are back to playing better defense of late. For the season, Golden State ranks only 14th in defensive efficiency. Golden State hasn't played like a team that is terribly motivated during much of the regular season. The Warriors rank sixth in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. 

Denver ranks as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in the last 10 games. The Nuggets have decided to try to slow things down quite a bit. Golden State is no longer one of the fastest teams in the league. In fact, Golden State ranks 21st in the NBA in pace in their last ten games. 

Denver ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. The Nuggets rank 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 10 games.

Both teams should be motivated here as the two teams fight for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. 

Late in the season, taking two good teams playing against each other to go under the total has been a very strong angle in the past few seasons.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs and Texas Longhorns meet in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden. This is a strange game in that it is a Big 12 showdown in New York City. It's the third time these two teams have played each other this year. 

The first two games between these two teams finished at 125 and 126 points total. Texas ranks 35th in the country in defensive efficiency. TCU ranks 33rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Very early in the small postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, CIT) the over has been a huge moneymaker in the past. Later in these tournaments, the under has had a lot of value. These games start meaning more now. You're this far into the tournament, so why wouldn't you try to go win the thing? The defensive intensity tends to pick up on average, and the tempo slows down a bit.

Madison Square Garden is arguably the best under arena you'll find for a college basketball game. The under is 60-39-2 in the last 101 postseason games at MSG with a total of 127.5 or higher. 

In the NIT semifinals or finals, the under is 26-8 in the last 34 contests with a total of 129 or higher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats rank 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 12th in defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 1st in effective field goal percentage defense. While both teams are pretty good on offense, the strength of both teams is their defense. 

Kentucky has slowed their tempo down drastically in recent weeks. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 ten games to a pace of 64 possessions or slower. Kentucky ranks 274th in tempo overall in the country. 

Houston ranks 247th in overall pace in the country. Houston has been held to a low number on offense in several big games this year. In fact, they scored 61 points or less in two of their last four games. 

This should be a very good game played between two physical teams. I'll keep this one to a 3 star play because if we get referees who want to blow the whistle a lot, this one could go over the total.

Overall though, I see a tight low scoring game in this showdown to see who gets to the Elite 8.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Conference playoff standings are really tight. The team in first place is only 8 games ahead of the team in eighth place. Just 1.5 games separate 5th from 8th place. Denver is in second place right now in the standings, but they could still fall to 3rd or 4th or even regain the top spot. Oklahoma City sits in 7th, but they are just one game out of 5th. 

This game means a lot to both teams. The more these games mean late in the season, the more I lean toward the under to begin with. There are more reasons to like the under in this one too.

Denver has seen 11 of their last 13 games stay under this number. The Nuggets have slowed their pace drastically. The Nuggets are playing at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games. 

Oklahoma City has a history of playing top opponents to lower scoring games. The under is 37-16-1 in the Thunder's last 54 games against a team with a 60% or higher win percentage.

Paul George is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury for this game. He'll likely try to play, but he is less than 100 percent. 

The under is 13-3 in the Nuggets last 16 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan ranks second in the nation in defensive efficiency. There is going to be some tremendous defense played in this game. If there is a lot of scoring, it will be because the teams are hitting tough shots. 

This game is played at the Honda Center in Anaheim. This has been a tremendous under venue in college basketball. In the last 55 games with a total of 124.5 or higher at Honda Center, the under is a whopping 40-15. 

Michigan's offense ranks 290th in the country in tempo, so they move very slowly. Texas Tech ranks at 253rd out of 353, so they move pretty slowly as well. This game should be played in the halfcourt, and both defenses are excellent. 

These are two extremely well-coached teams. Both coaching staffs should have a great idea of what the other team wants to do here. That should help the defenses.

With the venue being an extra bonus, I think the defenses look great here. It's a low number for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs lost to the Florida State Seminoles last year in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga is very excited for the chance to get them back this season. Florida State's length really bothered Gonzaga's offense last year.

Florida State just put up 90 points in a blowout win over Murray State in the Round of 32. Keep in mind though, this is a Florida State offense that really struggled at times this year. They rank 171st in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Florida State is shooting only 33.7% from 3 point range on the season. 

Gonzaga's offense is great. The Bulldogs did feast on a weak schedule though. They faced the 104th toughest slate of defenses this year. Gonzaga did struggle more against the better defenses they faced this year (Tennessee, St. Mary's). Florida State ranks 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they should give Gonzaga a tougher time than most teams have.

Florida State would be well served to play this game more in the halfcourt and force Gonzaga to stay out of the paint as much as possible.

This game is played at the Honda Center in Anaheim. This has been a tremendous under venue in college basketball. In the last 55 games with a total of 124.5 or higher at Honda Center, the under is a whopping 40-15. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It has been a strong angle in the past decade to take the under in a game between two good teams late in the year. Both of these have plenty to play for. Oklahoma City's recent slump has dropped them to 8th in the playoff standings, but they are just one game behind fifth place. 

Indiana sits in the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They certainly want to fight hard to stay there so they have home court advantage in the first round.

I like to look at recent performance this time of the year. In their last 8 games, Indiana ranks 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks 27th during this time. What about on defense? Indiana ranks 4th best in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks 6th best in the NBA during this period when it comes to defensive efficiency.

Both of these teams can go through offensive droughts, but both play tough defense. This game projects as a defensive battle.

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two.

Take the under.