Cappers Sports Picks

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The East Carolina Pirates have really turned down their tempo in the past couple years. East Carolina relies heavily on getting to the line a lot on the offensive end, and that's dangerous on the road against a James Madison team that hasn't fouled very much so far this year. 

James Madison is playing much slower so far this year. The Dukes rank 288th in tempo out of 351 teams in the country. 

Both of these teams are much improved on the defensive end so far this year. In the meeting between these two last year the final was 70-58. I had this one at 135. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Heat have been one of the best defensive teams in the league so far this year. Miami's defense hasn't been very good in their last couple games though, and I have a feeling that will be a point of emphasis in this game. Portland's offense has gone into a funk in their last couple games. The Blazers are not going against a good opponent to be trying to turn around an offense that is struggling.

Early Sunday afternoon unders are always worth a look, and the under is 11-3 in Miami's last 14 Sunday games. Portland's tempo has slowed down drastically in the past few weeks. Portland and Miami both rank in the bottom five in the NBA in terms of tempo in the past month.

The under is 4-0 in Portland's last 4 games on one day of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more last game. The under is 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 games vs. the NBA Northwest Division. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* 

*5 Star TOP Play Total SMASHER* The Florida Gators defense has been shutting everyone down this year. Florida faces an Oklahoma State team here that is short handed without shooting star Phil Forte. The Gators have some major offensive problems themselves, and they have decided to slow the game down and win with defense. Oklahoma State's coaching staff knows they have a lot less talent than they have had in recent years, and their tempo is much slower as well. 

I think this line is several points too high. This game is also played at a neutral site where shooting percentages are typically lower. Take the under. TOP Rated play

*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls are starting to play the faster paced game that Coach Rhoades wants them to play. Rhoades came from VCU where he was an assistant under Shaka Smart, and he is all about getting this Rice team to play faster and press. Rice is struggling defensively, and they are fouling a bunch. The Owls have been able to get quite a few quick scoring opportunities from that press, and they should be able to force some New Mexico mistakes.

The Lobos have adopted a much quicker style of play this year. New Mexico has a lot more scoring options than they had last year, and this is a team that can get hot from long range. Rice's defense has been really bad at defending beyond the arc this year. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* 

*4 Star Nova/Virginia Total* The Virginia Cavaliers are always going to be one of the slowest paced teams in the country as long as Tony Bennett is their head coach. Villanova ranks 300th out of 351 teams in the country in terms of pace, so the Wildcats have slowed things down in a big way from previous seasons. 

Villanova ranks #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. Virginia ranks number 5 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Both of these teams are excellent in the halfcourt, and neither teams have shown they want to run and try to score in transition. 

Virginia's last 3 games have finished at 122, 119, and 124 points. That last game was against West Virginia, who plays very fast. Villanova has seen 3 of their last 5 games finish at 123 or lower. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Thunder/Cavs Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 11th in the NBA in pace. They have actually ranked in the bottom ten in the league in terms of pace in the past two weeks. Cleveland has been slowing the game down in a big way this year. The Cavs have the second slowest tempo in the NBA. Cleveland's defense is now in the top ten in defensive efficiency as well. Oklahoma City is in the top 10 in defensive efficiency also. 

A total this high is hard to reach with the pace being slow and both teams playing good offense. Also very important to note is that 75% of the public is betting the over here, but the total continues to drop. That's a strong sign.

The under is 7-0 in the Thunder's last 7 games following a win by more than 10 points. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 following an ATS win. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 overall. The under is 4-0 in the Cavs last 4 following a win. A 28-1 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play SMASHER* The Belmont Bruins and Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have a nice little rivalry. These two schools are less than an hour apart, and both teams will be extra anxious to get this game going. In rivalry games, we typically see better defensive and lower shooting percentages. 

Middle Tennessee State has a good coach, and I think he knows he can't have his team running with Belmont. MTSU hasn't had a single game this year go over this posted total in regulation. Belmont has played a bunch of teams that play exceptionally fast this year, and MTSU isn't that type of team. I think Belmont's very high scoring games against fast paced opponents gives us extra value here on the under.

In the last four years, these teams have never played a game against each other that finished with a total higher than 128 points. That will probably change tonight, but I don't think it will be higher than 150. My numbers had this one at 145. Take the under. TOP Rated Play.

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels always like to get out in transition when they can. Arizona State prefers to play with tempo under new coach Bobby Hurley. Hurley's teams are aggressive and like to attack the rim. While the line actually moved down today in this one, I see the value side being the over. 

UNLV is a poor defensive rebounding team, and Arizona State has the frontcourt to take advantage of that weakness. UNLV should be able to force some turnovers that lead to easy baskets. I had this total at 140. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames rank as one of the 10 fastest teams in the country. Illinois State prefers to play quickly when they can as well. Illinois State generally doesn't shoot a good percentage, but I think they'll shoot it better than normal here tonight because this UIC defense is terrible. Everyone has been able to get easy looks against UIC.

Both of these teams do a lot of fouling, and with a total that isn't all that high, a bunch of fouls likely sends this game over the posted total. My number here was 150. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total PERFECTION* The Chicago Bulls have the third best defense in the NBA when it comes to defense efficiency numbers. Chicago is 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. While the Bulls were expected to play quickly with Fred Hoiberg as their coach, that hasn't really happened. Chicago started at a somewhat fast pace, but they have slowed considerably throughout the course of the year to slightly below average. Memphis is still a team that likes to play slowly and work it inside to their big men. Both offenses have been struggling of late, and this total is a few points too high.

The under is 5-0 in Memphis' last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 7-0-1 in the Bulls last 8 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a win by more than 10 points. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* The Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks ranked in the bottom 50 teams in the country in terms of tempo last year. This year they rank in the bottom 40, so they are playing even slower. Last year, Martin had some very good long range shooters, but this season they don't have many good shooters on the roster. One thing that's important here is Tenn-Martin generally does a good job not fouling on defense.

St. Louis would prefer to play slowly as well, and the Billikens are very reliant on getting to the line. In fact, they rank sixth in the nation in free throws attempted. Without getting to the line, this offense simply isn't very good. Only one of their eight games this year has gone over this total (their first game of the season). 

The under is 7-0 in St. Louis' last 7 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games. The under is 10-0-1 in their last 11 vs. the Ohio Valley Conference. The under is 4-0-1 in Martin's last 5 after a win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 29-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Heat have been a great under team so far this year. Miami has slowed their pace down to where they are 26th out of 30 teams in the league as far as pace. Miami ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat also have two key offensive contributors questionable tonight. Dwyane Wade and Tyler Johnson are both questionable here. 

Brooklyn has slowed down their tempo of late, and that makes sense because Brook Lopez is the strength of their team and they need to get it inside to him. Brooklyn has played better defense on their home floor. Brooklyn's offense ranks as the second least efficient offense in the league (only the 76ers are worse).

The under is 8-0 in the Heat's 8 road games so far this year. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 6-0 in Brooklyn's last 6 vs. a team with a losing road record. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Stanford Cardinal have made the decision to slow the game down this year. They ranked #127 (out of 351) in terms of tempo last year. This year they rank #312 in terms of tempo. That's a big slow down. Stanford is playing against a DePaul team that has allowed their opposition to dictate the tempo all year. DePaul is coming off a game where they scored only 44 points against Arkansas Little Rock and their strong defense.

With the tempo being slow, I think it will take some high shooting percentages to go over this total. My numbers made this one 132 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Clemson Tigers are great at slowing the tempo down with consistency. Brad Brownell's teams are very good on the defensive end, but usually not very good on offense. Clemson is shooting a much higher percentage from the floor so far this year than they have in recent seasons, but I think much of that can be attributed to who they have played thus far.

Alabama is a work in progress, but Avery Johnson stresses defense. They should make Clemson work hard to get open looks in this game. Alabama has been playing to the tempo of their opponent so far this year, which means this should be a very slow paced game. My numbers had this one at 125 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The DePaul Blue Demons host a very sneaky good Arkansas Little Rock team tonight. Little Rock has wins at Tulsa and at San Diego State this year. Little Rock has a new coach this season, and he has this team playing some suffocating defense. They will slow the tempo of this game down and make DePaul work really hard for every shot. The Blue Demons aren't a team that pushes the tempo much, so I think this game is played in the halfcourt throughout. My numbers had this at 127. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met earlier this year and the total finished at 153. The shooting numbers weren't very good in that one, but the tempo was quick. As long as both teams continue their past trend of playing quick, I like our chances of cashing with the over in this one. The shooting numbers should be better than last game, because neither defense is good. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams played just a week ago and that one sailed well over the posted total. Both of these teams like to play quickly, and they both foul a bunch. A game where both teams get in transition and both teams get to the line a lot is one of my favorite spots to play the over. North Texas' defense is one of the worst in the country. I had this one at 153. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*4 Star NCAA BB Top Total* The UCF Knights are playing at a much slower pace this year thanks to their 7'6 center Tacko Fall being on the team. Fall is a freshman who has made a big impact already on the defensive end. Florida Atlantic has a bad offense to start with, and I don't see them getting many good looks at the hoop here. UCF has committed the least amount of fouls of any team in the nation.

Both teams prefer to slow the game down. I had this number lined at 128 points. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* Davidson has been shooting the lights out in every game except their loss to North Carolina. I had the over in that one and lost, so I'm still a little upset that Davidson picked that game to shoot it so poorly. I don't think it will happen again though. Western Carolina has a terrible defense, and they put opponents at the line a bunch. The Catamounts are going to give up a big number against Davidson here. Both teams love to run so the tempo should be enough to get Western Carolina plenty of points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans and Florida Gators are both ranked in the top six in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan State has been shutting down the opposition, especially in their last few games. I'm not impressed with Florida's offense right now, but the Gators work hard on defense and play good team defense. Tom Izzo's team doesn't give the opponent second chances, and without those second chance points Florida's offense should be in trouble. Take the under. 

3 star play- Here are two teams who love to slow down the tempo and George Mason has been really bad on the offensive end this year. My numbers had this one at 132 points. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*4 Star Play Under* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*3 Star NBA TGIF CASH* The Memphis Grizzlies experimented a bit early in the year with playing faster, but it didn't work out well. Their tempo has slowed down in recent weeks. I expect them to end the season as one of the slowest paced teams in the league. 

Charlotte ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Hornets have been much improved on the defensive end this year. Al Jefferson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are out for this game, and those are two of their best offensive weapons. 

Two of the three referees in this game (Curtis Blair and Courtney Kirkland) have a strong under record in the past few years, which is a nice bonus for this play.

The under is 35-16-1 in Memphis' last 52 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Hornets last 5 playing on one day of rest. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Toreros just beat San Diego State 53-48 last game. San Diego plays at the 340th quickest tempo out of 351 teams in college basketball. Their opponent tonight, the Denver Pioneers, play at the 350th ranked pace in the nation. 

This number is certainly lower than I would like to play an under at in the new shot clock era, but my numbers suggest this will stay under this very low total. In fact, this could end up being one of the lowest scoring games of the year thus far.

Denver has played their last two games to 120 points and San Diego is far worse offensively than Denver's last two opponents. This one is low for a reason. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos are playing quicker this year. The Broncos have some very good scorers in Anthony Drmic, Mikey Thompson, and James Webb. Loyola Marymount prefers to play quickly, and their defense isn't good at all. I think Boise State will have a very efficient offensive night here. It won't be a surprise if they put up a big number.

Loyola Marymount's offense has been much better in the last few games. They have been attacking the basket more and kicking it it out to open jump shooters. Boise State's offense is great, but their defense isn't good. Look for Loyola Marymount to score quite a few as well. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have typically been a team that slows down the tempo under Tubby Smith's leadership. So far this year, they have played quicker and had some high scoring games, but I think that's more a product of who they have played against than anything else.

Tennessee-Martin is a bad team, but they are good at forcing opponents to slow down the pace. The Skyhawks are going to do their absolute best to turn this into a low scoring game. With Texas Tech's previous history of slowing the game down, I think they are an opponent that Martin will be able to slow down. I had this number at 135 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing at the second quickest tempo in the nation. Last game, they played to a 107-84 final against James Madison. It's important to note that James Madison is a team that likes to slow the game down. The fact that the game got to 191 points is indicative of Marshall's poor defense and their tempo. 

Eastern Illinois has been playing to the pace of their opponent this year. The Panthers are good at getting to the line, and they should get plenty of free throw attempts here. Their defense isn't very good, and I think Marshall can beat them down the floor. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs defense is first in the NBA by a wide margin when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Spurs are winning with defense this year. Philadelphia ranks last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Can Philadelphia get to 80 points here? I'm not sure if they can. 

San Antonio isn't likely to be anxious to run the score up a bunch here as they are on a road trip and play a good Toronto team on Wednesday.

Philadelphia's Isaiah Canaan and Jahlil Okafor are both questionable for this game, and those are two of their best offensive players. Canaan has a sprained ankle and if he plays he'll be less than 100 percent.

The under is 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 Monday games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or less. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Villanova/Oklahoma Total DOMINATION* The Villanova Wildcats are first in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are also slowing the tempo of the game down this year compared to what they have done in the past. Oklahoma ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Two of the top five defenses against each other in a game where there is a very odd shooting backdrop. Bloch Arena will be the host to this game, and it's a 4,000 seat building. This isn't going to be anything like the normal venues these two teams play at, and that likely will mean lower shooting percentages.

Oklahoma will look to push the tempo, but Villanova's physical defense should control Oklahoma's offense. I think this one finishes around 140. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins defeated Kentucky in a big upset in their last game. That should give this team a bunch of momentum. They go up against a poor Long Beach State defense here, and UCLA's offense should continue to fire on all cylinders. Long Beach State has been giving up the points in bunches this year.

UCLA prefers to push the tempo and Long Beach State has guards who really want to run this season. Look for an up and down game and a high scoring contest. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The North Carolina Tar Heels got Marcus Paige back last game, and it showed right away how much he helps their team on offense. North Carolina always wants to run, and not many teams will run with them, but it's hard to see Davidson slowing the game down. The Wildcats rank 9th in the nation in pace and they have two great scorers in Gibbs and Sullivan. 

North Carolina has a huge edge on the glass here, and I expect a bunch of second chance points for the Tar Heels. I had this game lined at 177 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a really bad basketball team. The only way they have been able to keep games close this year is to stall. They'll be stalling again in this one, and North Dakota State is typically happy to play slowly as well. Southern Miss is shooting less than 35% from the floor. North Dakota State's defense is good. Southern Miss has actually been pretty good on defense as well. An ugly game. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington State Cougars like to push the tempo thanks to coach Ernie Kent's philosophy. Washington State will get a chance to do that against a Portland State team that loves to run. Additionally, Portland State has been one of the worst defense in the country in the past three years. Washington State should put up a big number here. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Wisconsin Green Bay plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Toledo is always happy to play fast as well, and the Rockets offense is tremendous. A lot of pace all the way through this one and plenty of trips to the line for both teams. I had this one at 170 points. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Montana State Bobcats defense is one of the worst in the country. That makes this a great matchup for a team like Nebraska Omaha. Omaha plays at the third fastest tempo in the country. Omaha should get into the 90's in this game, and Montana State generally shoots the ball very well at home. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rivalry game here and the defenses have hand the upper hand in the past few meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Rivalry Game Total* The Rhode Island Rams and the Providence Friars don't like each other much. How could they? They are obviously very close to each other, and they have now been playing each other every year. Providence has a good team this year led by Kris Dunn. Rhode Island is a tremendous defensive team, and they should make someone else beat them. The Friars defense is very good, and Rhode Island's offense is their weakness. The Rams can't score unless they get to the line a lot, and Providence doesn't foul much. A hard fought close game. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets tried to up the tempo early in the season, but lately they have gone right back to their old style of slowing things down. Tulane is definitely a team that prefers to play at a slow tempo, so I see this game being played in the halfcourt throughout. The Tulane defense is pretty good, and Georgia Tech doesn't have many shooters on their team. Georgia Tech's interior defense is very good, and Tulane isn't accustomed to playing against defenses like this one. I made this total 131 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Elon Phoenix play a very fast paced game, and only one of their games this year has finished lower than this posted total. FIU has been a team that plays to the tempo of their opponent in the past. I think they'll do that to some degree again here. FIU is shooting better than 43% from behind the three point line this year. Elon isn't good on the defensive end at all. Both teams are pretty good at grabbing offensive rebounds, so second chance points should come pretty frequently. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total of the Week* The Siena Saints and Manhattan Jaspers met twice last year under the old rules in college basketball (longer shot clock and less fouls), and in those two games the total finished at 166 points and 154 points. Here we get a posted of 148? Manhattan has a very long history of fouling a bunch on defense and getting to the foul line a lot on the offensive end. Siena is that way as well. This game should see a lot of free throws.

Both Siena and Manhattan like to push the tempo, and I think we see a lot of possessions in this game. Barring some very poor shooting numbers, I see this one getting over the total easily. Take the over! *NCAA BB TOP Play Total of the Week* 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oregon State Beavers are terrific at controlling the tempo of a game. Oregon State wins with defense and once they grab the lead they can really take the air out of the ball. Loyola Marymount is missing their best scorer, and this is a team that struggles to score against quality teams to start with. Oregon State controls this game and then slows it down in the second half. I projected this one at 134 points. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Big 10/ACC Challenge CASH* The Iowa Hawkeyes prefer to play a fast tempo. The problem for them is they rarely get to play fast in the Big Ten because most teams in the conference like to slow things down. They'll get their shot to play fast here. Florida State has turned up the tempo in a big way this year with their young and athletic lineup. Rathan-Mayes is turning into one of the best in the nation quickly. Florida State and Iowa are both much better on offense than defense. Both teams are good at getting to the line often. I think this one gets to right around 160. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls offense ranks 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Bulls haven't played as fast this year as many people expected them to under Hoiberg. Chicago is also the #5 ranked team in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are still very committed on the defensive end. Denver ranks 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Nuggets offense has been particularly bad in the past couple weeks.

The three referees here are very helpful to the under. All three of them have a history of cashing unders more than overs. There is sharp money on this under, and I believe there are plenty of reasons for that.

The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 75 points or less last game. The under 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 5-0-1 in the Bulls last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Louisville/Michigan State MONEY* The Michigan State Spartans defense has been elite this year. Michigan State isn't allowing opponents any second chance points. Louisville's offense isn't very efficient, so they rely heavily on their ability to get second chance points. I don't think they'll get many in this one, and I see the Cardinals struggling to score. Louisville's defense ranks first in the nation in two point field goal defense, and the Cardinals should make life difficult for Denzel Valentine here. The tempo should be slow with both teams focusing on the defensive end. I had this number at 131. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles and Penn State Nittany Lions have both had a really tough time in the early going this year. Penn State's offense is dreadful without D.J. Newbill. He was the guy everything ran through last year, and without him they look lost. Boston College lost their star in Olivier Hanlan as well. Both teams like to slow the tempo down and I expect this one to stay in the 120's. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* The Syracuse Orange have one of the best defenses in the nation every year. This matchup zone is going to give Wisconsin a lot of trouble. Without Kaminsky and Dekker this Badgers offense has struggled a lot so far this year, and now they are going up against the best defense they have played this season. Wisconsin is going to slow the tempo down. They rank 345th out of 351 teams in the nation in terms of tempo. Syracuse prefers to play slow as well. Look for a game played almost solely in the halfcourt. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Cornell Big Red don't play much defense at all, but they do push the pace at every opportunity. Siena has always been a team that prefers to play quickly with Jimmy Patsos as their coach. Siena has a big advantage on the inside here, and I think they'll get a lot of easy baskets around the hoop. Siena's aggressive defense leads to a bunch of fouls, and Cornell should get a lot of free throw attempts in this one. In a game that should be pretty close, free throw attempts put this one over the total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets started the season out trying to play faster, but they have slowed down the tempo as usual in their last few games. Brian Gregory's team seems unlikely to be able to get Wofford to play fast. Wofford has been one of the slowest paced teams in the country every single year under their current coach. Wofford isn't going to let this tempo get out of control. Both teams have struggled shooting the ball in recent weeks. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Villanova Wildcats defense has been the best in the country so far this year, and it isn't even close. Villanova is only allowing teams to shoot 26% from long range and 36.2% from two point range. Those are just silly good numbers. St. Joe's is a strong defense as well. They are holding opponents to 27.7% from long range and 41.4% from three point range. 

Villanova was a fast paced team a few years ago, but they aren't anymore. The Wildcats have shifted down the pace and are winning with their great ball movement and their great defense. ST. Joe's isn't nearly as talented as Villanova, but they'll fight hard in a rivalry game like this one.

I actually made this total 136 points. I think Villanova's defense gets us this win. Take the under big! 

*4 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* The Iona Gaels are the same type of team every single year. Iona runs and guns. They have a lot of scorers and good shooters on this team. The thing they don't do is give any effort on defense. Fairfield's Sydney Johnson has decided to have the Stags play a fast paced game this year. The Stags are looking to push the pace. They'll get every chance in the world to do that in this game. I see a really fast paced game here where the total gets above 170. Take the over here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB MAC Total* The Marshall Thundering Herd have their distinct style of play. Coach D'Antoni has this team flying up and down the floor and putting up shots as quick as possible. They were the 7th quickest team in the nation last year and they are at #7 so far this year too. Ohio is embracing a much faster paced game this year thanks to a lot of athleticism on their team. The Bobcats are 9th in the nation in free throw attempts, and they should get to the line a lot here. This total is really high for good reason. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* The Delaware Blue Hens are a totally different team than they have been in recent years. Delaware is slowing the tempo down and looking to win with defense. The change is largely because they don't have many good scoring options. The Bradley Braves offense is just miserable. They haven't scored more than 60 points in a single game this year. Bradley is shooting 23.3% on three pointers. Delaware isn't much better at 27.8%. Brian Wardle is Bradley's new coach and the Braves are playing hard on defense for him. I made this number 125. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't as good as last year. They lost their top two scorers from last year's team, and I see the Golden Gophers struggling in the halfcourt offense this season. Clemson is the type of team that absolutely makes you play their game. The Tigers are going to slow this game down. Their tempo ranks in the slowest five teams in the country (out of 351 teams). Clemson's defense is excellent, but their offense is subpar. My numbers had this game at 130. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Green Bay Phoenix are playing at the second fastest tempo of any team in the country. Coach Darner has stated he wants this team to be the ultra-fast all year long. They should get their chance to run against an SIU Edwardsville team that isn't good at all defensively. Green Bay's defense has slipped a lot from last year as well. The tempo here should be plenty fast enough and I see both teams getting a lot of trips to the line as well with their aggressive natures on offense. Take the over. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play of the MONTH* The Boston Celtics are without Marcus Smart right now. That's a key injury for them. Their offense has been less efficient without him in the lineup. The Celtics played on Sunday and could only score 91 points against Orlando. They'll face an even better defense on Monday in Miami.

Miami ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat are giving up only 91.7 points per game. Miami is first in the NBA in field goal percentage defense at 40.3%. Boston ranks fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency as well. On offense, the Heat rank 14th in the league in offensive efficiency and Boston ranks 19th. Clearly, the two defenses have the advantage here.

Here is a really interesting statistic. The Boston Celtics are playing at 104.7 possessions per game at home this year (fastest in the NBA). They are playing at 99.1 possesions per game on the road this year (this ranks in the bottom ten in terms of tempo). Miami loves to slow the game down and they should be able to do that in this one. With both a slower tempo and two good defenses, this is a relatively high number. 

The under is 8-0 in the Heat's last 8 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 vs. the NBA Atlantic. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 26-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*Note- This number has moved down some since I played this one last night, but I still like this as a 5 star rated play down to 190. Thank you*

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Tigers and the Ohio State Buckeyes are both big name programs that are down quite a bit this year. Ohio State has lost to UT Arlington and Louisiana Tech in their last two games. Memphis lost to UT Arlington lost game as well. 

One reason I like this total is Ohio State has played at a tempo of 69 possessions in every single game they have played so far this year. Their consistency at slowing the game down has been great. The only thing that has changed has been their opponents shooting percentages. Memphis shoots 21.5% from three point range, and the Tigers are much better on defense than offense. This game is played at a neutral site in Florida, and neutral sites generally mean worse shooting numbers.

I see this line as being a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Dons have decided to slow things down in their last few games, and it has brought them more success. UCSB will be glad to play a slower pace tonight, and UCSB has been struggling badly from outside. UCSB is shooting 23% from the three point range on the season. San Francisco previously played a fast tempo and that's why we are getting value on the under in this one. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Murray State Racers lost their star from last year (Cameron Payne) and without him the offense isn't even close to as good. Murray State is working hard on defense though. Opponents have been held below 40% three times this year. The Racers are no longer running as they have in the past. Weber State is a slow it down team because of their strength in the post. I had this one at 132. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*3 Star Under* The North Dakota State Bison and Montana Grizzlies have both been good under teams for me in the past. With the same coaches back this year, I'm going to go with the under here. Both teams prefer to play a slow it down tempo and both teams aren't nearly as efficient on the offensive end this year after losing their best scorers from a year ago. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total* The Pepperdine Waves play tremendous defense. They have a long athletic team who makes it very difficult to score. Pepperdine often gets bogged down on offense themselves, but they have been winning a lot of games due to their hard work on defense. Drake plays at an extremely slow tempo, and the Bulldogs will be playing against the best defense they have played this year. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Denver Pioneers have been one of the ten slowest teams in terms of tempo every single year for a long time. They aren't going to speed up for anyone. Idaho State has played faster teams so far this year so they have high scoring games, but that should change in this one. I had this total at 129 points so I see plenty of value for a play. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Weber State Wildcats have a good team this year, and it starts with a very strong frontcourt. Weber State has slowed their tempo down in the past couple years. When Damian Lillard was at Weber State, they were a team who played quickly, but now that their strength is in the post instead of at the guard they are playing a halfcourt style. 

Drake has had two games go into overtime already, which has skewed their numbers to make them look like a high scoring team. Drake actually ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the nation (there are 351 overall) in terms of pace. The Bulldogs will be looking to slow this game down, and Weber State is likely to be happy with that as well.

The under is 19-7 in Drake's last 26 games at a neutral site. Shooting percentages are generally a little lower at neutral sites. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* Ohio State has seemingly decided to slow the tempo of the game down this year. With an athletic roster, I'm not really sure why they are doing it, but that's been the game plan so far. Ohio State lost at home to UT Arlington last game, and now they come back to play Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs like to speed the game up, but so do Mt. St. Mary's and UT Arlington. Ohio State didn't let either of those teams play fast as they prefer to. Look for the Buckeyes defense to improve following that ugly loss to UT Arlington. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal Golden Bears have a very athletic team this year and they will look to get up and down much more than they have in past years. With Brown and Rabb added to an already talented roster, Cal has the second most talent in the Pac 12 behind Arizona. The Golden Bears are likely to have a bunch of success on offense here. Cal was flat in their last game, a win over East Carolina. Coach Martin's team should be ready for this one. Sam Houston State has been torched on defense by both SMU and Southern Illinois. It should happen again here. This total is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego State Aztecs are a grind it out team. Steve Fisher gets his team to work hard on the defensive end like no other coach in the country can. No matter who comes to play for Fisher, they will work hard on defense, or they won't see the floor. San Diego State still slows the game down, and they still have trouble scoring. The Aztecs lost at home to Little Rock last game. The Aztecs should show up ready to play here, and I think that will mean some great defense. East Carolina has been a good under team in recent years so I like this matchup to be very low scoring. The under is 36-16 in San Diego State's last 52 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* I successfully played the 'over' with the Knicks in their first two games of the season. Derek Fisher talked a lot in the offseason about the Knicks picking up the pace this year. They did just that in the first week of the season. Gradually though, as the season has gone on the Knicks have slowed their tempo back down. New York was at nearly a 100 possessions per game tempo in the first week. In their past 3 games, they are at a tempo of less than 95 possessions per game. That's a very big difference. Miami is ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they play at the fourth slowest pace in the league. Look for a slow tempo and a game that stays low scoring.

The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning record. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall. A 20-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late NIGHT BAILOUT* The Stanford Cardinal lost their best two players from last year's team. Stanford is likely to have trouble scoring this season. This is their first road game of the season, and with a young team that should prove difficult. St. Mary's also lost a bunch of talent, and the Gaels are going to be way down this year. Randy Bennett is a good coach and he is going to slow this game down and play a halfcourt style that the Gaels prefer. I made this number 140 points, and I think there is quite a bit of value here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* SMU and Yale are both defensive teams who like to slow the game down. This total is a few points too high. I made this one 135 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The 76ers are dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, and it isn't even close! Philadelphia is shooting 30% form three and 41.7% overall from the floor. Miami ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat have the ability to hold Philadelphia to a very low number here. Miami is also playing at a slow tempo and Philadelphia is pushing the pace less this year than they have in the past. 

The under is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10. The under is 4-0 in their last vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams are without their star player, EC Matthews. Matthews is out for the year with an injury. He was their best offensive threat. Without him, the Rams will still be a solid team, and it will be because of the tremendous defense they play. Cleveland State hasn't been able to score against Akron or Malone College, so how are they going to score here? I think Cleveland State will struggle to pass 50 points here. An ugly game between two teams that are good on the defensive end. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total CRUSHER* The Oregon State Beavers and UC Santa Barbara Gauchos have both played teams who are very fast in tempo so far this year. They won't be playing an opponent who wants to run in this one. Oregon State is all about defense and UC Santa Barbara has been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation on a consistent basis.

There is a lot of value on this play because of their high scoring games against teams like California (fast paced) and Iona (very fast paced). I had this number at 131 points, which makes this my biggest play of the college basketball season thus far. Take the under big! 

*3 Star NCAA BB National TV Total* The Virginia Cavaliers put up 82 points last night against Bradley, but it wasn't because they have picked up the tempo. Virginia just shot an amazing percentage from the floor. Bradley's defense offered little resistance, but Long Beach State is decent on defense. Virginia's defense is far better than anything Long Beach State generally sees. This line has been pushed up by 6.5 points from the open. That line move makes this under a good value in my eyes. 

Virginia is still the halfcourt team that plays great defense, and I think some of their early season numbers have skewed this number too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off a humbling loss at the hands of the Dayton Flyers. Alabama is playing with a much quicker tempo this year, and Louisiana Lafayette has been one of the fastest paced teams in the nation with Bob Marlin as their head coach. 

Alabama is looking to use full court pressure to speed up the game, and I think Lafayette will be glad to play that type of game here. Lafayette has a very good frontcourt, and I think they'll get a lot of second chance points on offensive rebounds against a relatively small Alabama frontcourt.

I had this one lined at 158 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have always liked to play at a quick tempo under coach John Cooper. Most of the teams inside the Mid American Conference slow the game down. Miami will get their chance to play a quick paced game when they take on Lipscomb on Friday night. Lipscomb has been a team that looks to play fast for several years in a row now.

With the new tighter rules we are seeing about four fouls more per game than we have seen in the past. Both of these teams have been teams that do a good job getting to the line in the past two years. They have also both been teams that commit a bunch of fouls. Look for a lot of trips to the charity stripe throughout this game.

My numbers made this game 154 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs play at a methodical pace under Coach Larry Brown. He's suspended now, but SMU isn't going to change the way they play. Stanford lost their two best players from last year, and this Stanford team needed overtime to beat Wisconsin Green Bay at home earlier this year. I don't think Stanford can control the pace of this game, and I think they'll struggle to score against an SMU squad that makes you would hard for every bucket. Look for SMU to grab a lead in this game and work the clock in the second half. I had this number at 141. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rice Owls lost their best long range shooter from last year, and that's about all Rice could do well last season. The Oregon State Beavers have a very good coach in Wayne Tinkle and he is all about slowing the game down and winning with defense. Oregon State doesn't have many good scoring options, but everyone on this team can play defense. Rice likes to slow the game down as well. This is one of those lines that has gotten out of hand because of the success of early season overs. As the line has been bet up, there's just too much value here to pass up. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wisconsin Green Bay has a new coach who has totally changed the look of the team. Their goal is to be one of the fastest paced teams in the country this year. Georgia Tech has worked all offseason on trying to be a faster paced team. Brian Gregory's team put up 116 points in their season opener. Wisconsin Green Bay just gave up 103 points last game to East Tennessee State. I think the Yellow Jackets put up a really big number here and the pace of the game means Green Bay should score plenty as well. I made this line 164. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Creighton Blue Jays have a lot of offensive weapons, and they've made it known in the offseason that they want to get out and run. Here's their chance! Indiana loves to run, and the Hoosiers could put up a really big number here. Indiana ranks as the number one team in the nation in offensive efficiency so far this year. Creighton doesn't have many defensive stoppers on their roster. The Blue Jays will get open looks here, because Indiana's defense has been a problem for the past three years. Look for both teams to knock down a lot of threes and this game to go over the posted total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are going to be running a lot more this year. Dave Rice said in the preseason that his team has extensively practiced during the offseason to be much faster paced than a year ago. They have the athleticism to beat most teams down the floor. Southern Utah is always glad to play a fast paced game under Coach Nick Robinson. Southern Utah's defense has been among the worst in the nation in each of the last three years. They foul a bunch as well, which will be helpful to the over in this game. A quick tempo with a lot of trips to the charity stripe. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Best Bet Total* The Northwestern Wildcats and Fairfield Stags play a similar style of basketball. Both look to slow down the game and work down the shot clock. Northwestern is without Jershon Cobb this year and he was their best playmaker a year ago. They are also without Vic Law who was slated to be their best player this season. Law was injured before the season. Fairfield played a 70-57 game against Yale earlier this year. Northwestern played a 79-57 game against UMass Lowell.

Because overs have done so well so far this year, I think we'll be able to catch games with inflated lines like this one in some spots. All totals are being bet up several points. While the new rules do make higher scoring games more frequent, teams like Fairfield and Northwestern are unlikely to fundamentally change the way they play the game. This total has gone up 9 points since the opener. That's way too much in my opinion. Take the under big! 

*4 Star College Hoops TV Total* The Providence Friars are led by one of the best players in the country in Kris Dunn. Dunn is going to have a spectacular season this year. Coach Cooley has said he's looking for Dunn and the rest of his team to push the tempo more often this year because of their skillset. Illinois is glad to run. The Fighting Illini have had 93-81 and 80-74 finals in their first two games this year. Malcolm Hill is a very good scorer for Illinois, and the Fighting Illini should attack the rim a lot in this one. I see a close game between two teams who want to run. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have a new coach, but they are expected to play the same uptempo style they have in the past. Louisiana Tech uses a full court diamond press to get a lot of turnovers and easy buckets in transition. UT Arlington ranked 8th out of 351 teams in terms of pace last year, and I think this game turns into a real track meet. The sharp money is already on the over, and I made this game 158 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Missouri Tigers know they can't turn this into a fast paced game. Missouri doesn't have the offensive firepower that Xavier has. Missouri is likely to be ranked near the bottom this year in terms of pace. The Tigers had a lot of very low scoring games last year. Xavier is likely to get a big lead and coast in this one. The Musketeers defense should be improved this year vs. last season. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels are playing a totally different style of basketball this year. They have been a slow tempo team for a long time, but now they have a coach who has said his goal is to have this team near the top of the country in terms of pace. They showed that in their season opener. UNC Wilmington pushes the tempo under a coach who learned under Rick Pitino. There will be a lot of pressing and a lot of fouls in this one. The tempo along with the new shorter shot clock and rules to help higher scoring make this a strong play for me. My number here was 157. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Ohio Bobcats are pushing the tempo and they have a lot of offensive weapons. Tennessee State surprised a lot of people by running and scoring like crazy in their season opener. The Tigers put up 86 points on the road. They'll likely lose this game by a good margin, but Ohio should have little to no trouble scoring against this Tennessee State defense that has been really bad the last few seasons. With the shorter shot clock and more blocking fouls being called, I'm taking the over in this game. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Lakers were playing exceptionally fast on offense earlier this year, and lately they have slowed things down. Los Angles has played 5 straight games that have finished under the total. The Lakers offense is very disjointed right now. They don't have much ball movement at all, and they become easy to defend for long stretches.

Detroit's defense is so much better than it has been in the past. Drummond has been terrific for them and he does two things to help the under here- 1) he is a shot blocking force in the paint 2) he slows down the tempo of the game. Detroit now ranks tied for 10th in the league in defense. Both of these teams rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency as well. This number is a few points too high.

The under is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 3-0 in their 3 home games this year. The under is 2-0 in the Pistons only two games as a favorite this year. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Nevada Wolf Pack are playing a much faster paced game under new coach Eric Musselman this year. Nevada has been known for their halfcourt sets that waste a lot of time in the past few years under David Carter, but this is a big change. In practices, Nevada has been playing as fast as possible. Montana State's Brian Fish prefers to play fast too, so I don't see anything slowing this one down. All of the new rule changes are leading to higher scoring games early on, and this total of 147.5 isn't a very high number with the shorter shot clock. Look for a lot of transition baskets here. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* From everything I've read about the Utah Utes in the offseason, this team is changing the way they play this year. Utah is going to push the tempo. Utah was one of the slowest paced teams in the nation last year. It usually takes the oddsmakers a little bit to adjust to something like this. Utah has the perfect opponent to try out their new tempo on tonight in Southern Utah. Southern Utah has been an extremely fast paced team the last few years. Additionally, Southern Utah is awful on defense and fouls a bunch. The Utes should get a lot of easy buckets at the basket, and they should be on the free throw line a lot as well. 

Utah beat down Cal State Monterey Bay 124-70 in exhibition play last week. I'm not saying they'll pour in the points at that pace tonight, but that shows a totally different type of play. This line is far too low. I think this one gets into the 150's. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NBA Spurs/Blazers ESPN CASH* The San Antonio Spurs offense hasn't been as efficient so far this year as we are accustomed to them being. It makes sense really, since they have a completely different look with Aldridge in the lineup. The Spurs have been excellent on defense though. They are behind only Golden State in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

Portland relies way too much on Damian Lillard for my liking. Lillard is definitely a very good player, but the Spurs defense should do well against him. Portland hasn't played against many good defenses this year, so I think their offensive number are skewed a bit right now.

Both of these teams are playing at a pace slower than the NBA average, so a line set this high doesn't make much sense, especially when you have an elite defense like the Spurs involved. The public is hitting the over hard here, so I'll gladly take the under at this elevated price. 

One more note- James Williams is one of the referees here, and he is one of the best under refs in the NBA. The under is hitting at a better than 60% clip in his last 150 games as a ref. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Heat have been slowing the tempo down in a big way this year. Miami ranks second to last in the NBA in terms of pace (only Utah is slower). The Heat also rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Miami is very likely to control this game against the Lakers. Miami ranks 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Lakers rank 18th. I expect Miami to grab a lead and let their defense win them this game. Two of the three referees in this game are solid under guys, which is certainly helpful. Miami hasn't had a game this year finish with a final score higher than 198. Two of the Lakers last four games have finished at 196 or lower. 

The under is 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on a day of rest. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 2-0 in the Lakers last 2 games. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons are a much improved team this year. They are working much harder on the defensive end, and they have improved team chemistry. Detroit is playing at the fourth slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers have the third worst offensive efficiency of any team in the NBA. A total set this high doesn't make sense in this contest. The referees in this game are neutral as far as over/unders. I thought this line should be at 197, so I see plenty of value here. Look for Detroit to control the tempo and win with a strong defensive effort. Take the under here. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play of Week* I took the over in the New York Knicks season opener and that won comfortably. I'm backing the over again in this one. New York showed they were a different team in the preseason, and they confirmed that yet again in their win over Milwaukee. New York is running a much faster paced offense. The Knicks brought in guys who fit a faster paced offense very well. Guys like Jerian Grant and Derrick Williams made big impacts in game one, and they should again here.

Importantly though, Atlanta has always been a team that likes to run when they can. The Hawks aren't going to slow this game down. Atlanta lost their season opener and they'll be ready to go here. Atlanta had one of the top five offenses in terms of efficiency last year. While New York's offense is much better this year, I still expect the Knicks to be one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Atlanta should be able to put up a big number here.

Interestingly, even when the Knicks were stalling and playing a totally halfcourt game last year, two of their three meetings with Atlanta went over the total. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted to the Knicks new style of play yet. This number is too low. Take the over big! 

*Note- This line has moved up slightly- I would take over for a 5 star play up to 200. Thank you*

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks are going to play a different style of basketball this year. Derek Fisher has been using the offseason to implement a new faster pace of play with this team. New York has the new guard to start the fastbreak with. Jerian Grant will be a great fit in this offense with them pushing the tempo. New York will still run the triangle offense when they can't score in transition, but last year this Knicks team was the single slowest paced in the NBA for much of the year. In the preseason, they ranked 14th in the league in points and were clearly changing things up. 

Milwaukee ranked just a little faster than average in terms of pace last year. Greg Monroe is the new big signing for the Bucks. Monroe is a defensive downgrade for the team and a major offensive upgrade. The Knicks don't have anyone who can guard him consistently here.

Last year, the Knicks were playing an extremely slow tempo and 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams were lined higher than this. I think we are catching value on the over as the oddsmakers underestimate the differences in these teams. Take the over.