Cappers Sports Picks

Michigan State -2 4.4* NCAAB POD

I'll take the Spartans here today. For one i feel these two teams are pretty even and their strengths and weaknesses are pretty damn similar.  Ohio State has a freshman as their best player while Michigan State is built more on a team aspect with talent spread around.  They are under sized compared to Ohio State yet they are a far superior rebounding team which to me just is odd.  Michigan State lost their last home game against Illinois and I don't see them losing this one.  They have been pretty unlucky all year, but I believer their advantage in experience will be the difference.  In addition Ohio State has covered 4 of their last 5 games ATS and the margin of victories ATS have been very high.  We get an inflated line here because of it.

Ohio State also returns Marc Loving today from suspension which I think will do more harm than good.  He was averaging roughly 25 min before the suspension and you really can't expect to just plug him back in with results or without impacting the chemistry a bit.  Michigan State's  2point and 3 point offensive and defensive ranks are the best  averaging a national rank of 33.75.  Ohio State is just 3-4 on the road and have lost to Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, and Louisville and all 4 of those teams struggle more in at least two categories.  Michigan State is more complete and consistent and I think their motivation to win this game is right in line with our prediction.  

[b]Providence +155 4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'm going with the Fryars to upset Villanova here tonight who in reality have not had a tough schedule at all especially their schedule away from home.  Nova just got done seeking revenge on GEorgetown at home after they got beat badly against them on the road and I think Providence is in a good spot here to pull the upset.  First of all they have had a more challenging schedule overall and in conference play.  Providence is very good at getting to the FT line especially at home and Nova is just 90th in 2 point defense allowing 45.2% overall but on the road they allow 49.9%.  I expect Providences offense to just be fine and that means this game comes down to whether or not Villanova can make three's.  They have done it well all year, but a team like this who relies on the 3 ball so much is a very risky play.  Providence is very good defending the 3 at home at 30.9% and are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games.  I'll take the Fryars to come up with a big win and guarantee themselves a spot in the tournament. 

[b]Celtics +7 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

This is a tough spot for the Atlanta Hawks after such a great first half they will finally get a chance to relax for a bit after they face the Celtics on the road.  With that on the horizon they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and it's another on the road.  Granted they are 21-6 ATS this season on 1 days rest something has got to give.  Boston will be far more rested here with 3+ days off and I think the energy will show as they really have nothing else to prepare for with a week off after this game. 

Texas Tech +10.5 3.3* NCAAB POD

[b]Memphis Grizzlies -133 4.5* NBA POD[/b]

I'm taking the Grizzlies to defeat the Atlanta Hawks.  The Grizzlies are off a bad loss while the Atlanta Hawks just got done beating the Warriors at home in an exciting show down.  It's hard to see them not having any type of a let down after that game while the Grizzlies are still a tough defensive team that rarely loses in these type of moments.  I'm expecting a double digit win, but given our poor luck in losing games ATS by 1-2 points of late we will be taking the Grizzlies money line here today.  

[b]San Diego State -120 4* NCAAB POD[/b]

We have gotten unlucky lately on top plays missing a few by just 1 point and it happened again last night despite Northern Illinois leading most of the way they were able to fall apart and lose by 4 points when we had them at +3 which really pissed me off but that's the nature of basketball which is why we are typically selective.  Here today I think we get excellent value on San Diego State playing their biggest threat to winning the Mountain West in Boise State.  San Diego State in my opinion is at another level than Boise State who relies on offense ranking 36th in adjusted ranking, but they have faced an opponent defense SOS of 186th.  San Diego State is by far the best defense they have faced all year long ranking 5th overall and top 25 in defending the 2 and 3 ball.  San Diego State also rebounds well and can turn you over and they have done so against a very tough schedule along the way.  Boise leaves a lot to be desired defensively including their 207th ranked 2 point defense ranking.  They are good about not sending teams to the FT line which is a good thing for the Aztecs because they are not very good % wise when they get there.  San Diego State is 5-0 vs. teams not in the top 200 in 2 point defense with an average margin of victory of 14.2.  This game's line is off a bit because San Diego State has struggled a bit on the road, but I believe their focus is on this game.

Northern Illinois +3 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Northern Illinois is 3-6 in conference play Bowling Green 6-3 and everyone is jumping on BG to get their 2nd win vs. Northern Illinois after they beat them by 10 earlier in the year, but the only difference in that game was Bowling Green's ability to hit 3's as they went 7-18 while Northern Illinois shot 2-12.  Neither team has an elite offense in fact in conference play Bowling Green is ranked 9th in offensive efficiency and Northern Illinois is ranked 11th.  The difference being BG can not manufacturer offense in creative ways while Northern Illinois is 1st in offensive rebounding % and FT rate.  Northern Illinois has an even greater advantage at home where they are +12 FTA, +4 rebounding and +3 turnover margin on the season on average at home. I think they will win all 3 categories and ad din the fact that Bowling Green wins with defense, but is 7th in 2 point defense overall is a scary stat with Northern Illinois shooting all of their shots from 2 70% roughly.  Bowling Green defends it well at home 39.6% but on the road that number climbs to 53.5%.  

Clippers -1 3.3* NBA POD

[b]Iowa -125 5* NCAAB POD[/b]

One play tonight as we continue to let our forumulas tune as we have hit a bit of a rocky road, but I really like Iowa's chances here as the better team despite losing three in a row (they were dogs in each).  Michigan comes into the game playing well going 4-0 ATS without some key players in their leading scorer Caris Levert and Derrick Walton who is their 2nd leading scorer, but it's about to add up for them in a game that Iowa absolutely needs.  Iowa has had the #1 strength of schedule in Big Ten play and I don't considering Michigan one of the top teams right now.  Iowa has a top 50 team when it comes to experience while Michigan is one of the least experienced teams in the nation.  I expect Iowa to use that experience and get a big win here on the road which is not uncharacteristic of them as they have already beaten Minnesota, Ohio State, and North Carolina on the road. 

[b]Wizards +6 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

I will take Washington here as the Hawks finally ended their historic winning streak in New Orleans a day ago and now they are playing their 4th game in 6 nights traveling back home for this one.  Washington meanwhile has lost 3 straight and is desperate for a win and playing a big time game against Atlanta could be exactly what this team needs.  After all they did get smacked by the Hawks by 31 points the last time and allowed over 50% from three point land.  I just don't see that happening or John Wall and Bradley Beal turning the ball over 10+ times like they did in the first match up.  The last match up was a tough spot for Washington after they just beat down the Bulls with the Spurs up next this time it's a tough spot for Atlanta with Golden State, the leagues best team coming in next.  I expect a let down here especially after their winning streak. It's like when pitcher finally gives up the hit in the 8th inning of his no hit or perfect game.  Typically the flood gates open and hits come in volume.  I expect the Hawks to go on a bit of a losing streak from here.  

Seahawks +2 5.5* NFL POD; Seahawks +8 / Under 54.5 4.4* 6pt teaser

The value here is on the Seahawks when you look at the fact that the Patriots were to be 3 point under dogs before any games started last Sunday if in fact it ended up Patriots vs. Seahawks.  Many books were releasing those lines, but the way each team got here is very different and public perception right now is the Patriots are better.  Even with the deflategate because most people feel that did not even help the Patriots, but I'm going to jump on this game before several consequences are handed out.

Bottom line is the Patriots struggled vs. top tier rushing games and tough defensive lines.  The Seahawks probably have the best combination of defensive line and secondary and then add in the fact that they are 3rd vs. the run.  Patriots struggled vs. the Bills who also have an excellent defensive lines and multiple times vs. the Jets and Dolphins and Chiefs.  I expect Seattle with 2 weeks to prepare will be well prepared and they always say defense wins championships.  While the Patriots have a pretty damn good defense as well it resides mostly in the secondary and I think the Seahawks can really run the ball in this match up if they stay dedicated to it.  

Listen every team has a bad game and that's what happened to the Seahawks.  They are mostly a team that takes care of the ball, but for whatever reason they turned the ball over 5 times.  How many teams who turn the ball over win the game?  Not many especially when you are facing a future Hall of Famer at QB in Aaron Rodgers.  I just think people are down on the Seahawks because many feel the Packers choked the game away, but perhaps this will humble them as they prepare for another great QB in Tom Brady.  Seahawks defense will be plenty motivated when you think about the fact that they will have the ability to defeat two of the best QB's of all time in back to back years.  

Note all prop options are based on Thursday night's odds on Oddsmaker! 

Under 44.5 yards (-110) for longest FG of the game 2.2* play
This game features two of the best defenses and two of the best kickers, but I don't think either kicker will make a FG over 44.5 yards. When you think about the percentages There are 72 opportunities for the teams involved in their opponents throughout the season. In 18 games the Patriots only had 5 games with a FG over 44.5 yards and they only allowed one in 6 games while the Seahawks only had 5 over 44.5 yards as well and allowed their opponents 5. Both of these teams are aggressive and I feel like if they get down around the 30 they are likely going for it.

Field Goal 1st Points of Game +125 1* Play
The first score has been a field goal in 12 of the Seahawks 18 games. I think they dictate this game a lot and the field goal will be the first points of Super Bowl 49. Patriots came in at just 5 of 18, but still that's 17 of 36 which is essentially even yet we get the value at +125.

Lagarette Blount U62.5 yards -130 2* play
The over would be the hot play here after Blount just got done running all over the Colts with 30 carries and 150+ yards, but Blount never had more than 12 carries all year long. The Patriots have a tendency to not lean on 1 guy and I doubt Blount will get 17 carries which is approximately what he would need to get to 63 yards vs. the Seahawks who are 3rd allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Seattle will also game plan to stop Blount as they are very good at this compared with the Colts who were 24th. I also see a competitive game so I don't see the Patriots running it 30+ times as they only select running plays 40% of the time anyway.

Brandon Lafell U18.5 yards longest reception -115 1* play
Lafell is listed as questionable so he must play for this one which I believe he will. His toe injury could impact him here but that's not why I play the under here. New England is not a big play offense ranking 25th in big plays on the year while the Seahawks rank #1 in big plays allowed. They rank #1 in passing big plays allowing just 14 all year so I don't expect Lafell to have an impact on this game at all with long plays. Patriots are smarter than to attack a very good secondary like that. 

Luke Wilson Over 2.5 receptions-115 3* play
Seahawks TE group was really banged up this year and Luke Wilson really stepped up down the stretch. He's not really known as a big time threat, but he got plenty of targets down the stretch over the last 5 games having 3 or more in each and had 3 TD catches in his last 4 games. New England wants to and will take away the WR of Seattle with their excellent secondary so I believe Wilson will have a big role in this game. NE was ranked 4th in opponents most targets towards a TE at 6.5/game. Only 2 out of 18 games did the Patriots allow less than 3 receptions to an opponents TE. Seeing as Wilson is the only TE getting targets these days I would love to take the over here. 

Tom Brady U266.5 yards passing 3.3* play
Tom Brady will face the #1 passing defense in the league as the Seahawks have allowed 260+ yards passing only 4 times out of 18 games this season. Many of which they had leads where teams had to throw a lot. It happened just once in their last 14 games overall whle Brady threw for over 266.5 8 out of 18 games this year. I broke it down further based on yards per attempts to see how many passing attempts Brady would have to make to get over this number based on what he averages and what the Seahawks typically give up. Brady is 16th in yards per attempts at 6.8 yards which suggests he should attempt at least 40 passes. Seattle has only seen a QB attempt over 40 passes 4 times all year. Meanwhile the Seahawks have allowed just 5.8 which suggests that Brady needs to actually have 46 attempts. Bottom line this Patriots offense is not built on big plays and when you go up against one of the best secondaries 266.5 yards is a lot to ask and the Patriots are much smarter than this. Take the under for Brady in this spot.

[b]USC +11 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]

This is a rematch of a game about a month ago and USC was extremely young then and they still are, but 30 days a team definitely improves and on that day they clearly could not have played any worse shooting 38.5% getting out rebounded by 6 and -15 FTA  while allowing Utah to shoot 58% from 3.  Utah is a different team at home and while I think they will win this game it will take a lot more effort to do so.  Utah has the 10th toughest schedule in PAC 12 play so they have been lucky with how they have gotten here.  I think the fact that they shot 42% of their shots from outside and USC does defend well at home 30.8% and the fact that they have a game to look at to make adjustments gives us plenty of value here on USC. 

Depaul +12 4.4* NCAAB POD

Villanova is the better team, but with this game being on the road it's a little more evena nd I don't see 12 points being enough to separate these two teams.  First of all the strength of schedules have been very similar only Depaul has had the #1 toughest schedule in Big East play while Nova has had the 9th toughest.  Nova's main strategy is to get open looks from 3 while they have taken 40% of their shots and it did them well shooting 13-29 from 3 at home vs. Depaul which I don't see happening again as Depaul is ranked 28th overall in 3 point defense.  Both of these teams are rather similar ranking in top 100 shooting the 3 and top 30 in defending it and I think Depaul will have greater success here today shooting and defending.  When you look at home away splits Depaul is shooting it 39.2 % from beyond the arch and defending at 26.5 while Nova is a bit worse 34.3 vs. 29.4.

Depaul has been a good team at home already beating St. Johns, Xavier, Marquette, a good Stanford team and they lost by 6 to Georgetown who Nova lost to by 20.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Depaul win this game, but my money is on them to keep this game within single digits. 

[b]Bulls +7 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

We are getting some value here on the under dog after a 3 point line move.  Chicago has been very good on the road this year going 17-7 and they have been very good following a loss going 14-4 this year.  Phoenix also caught in a spot where they could be looking ahead to the Warriors and Grizzlies who are in their conference and play on Saturday and Monday night.  The concern with the Bulls is back to back OT games and this being their 3rd game in 4 nights, but this is a tough team and the fact that they rebound well and defend the paint gives me plenty of confidence.  

Middle Tennessee -110 4.4* NCAAB POD

Middle Tenn is just the better team here and I'll play them to win on the road.  First of all the biggest difference between these two teams is their opponents faced while Texas San Antonio has the 317th ranked strength of schedule and has beaten only 1 team in the top 250 Middle Tennesee is ranked 168th in strength of schedule. To put it in perspective Middle Tennessee has beaten 12 (all of their wins) vs. top 250 schools and their lowest opponent loss was against #163.  UTSA is #219 and that's only because of their adjusted offense is ranking #117, but their  defense is the real story ranking 299th in adjusted efficiency while their 2 point and 3 point defenses do not rank inside the top 300 in the nation.  Middle Tenn is 4-0 vs. defenses not in the top 250 and they have beaten all of the conference defenses that have struggled. 

Creighton +1 -105 3.5* NCAAB POD

I like Creighton int his spot to finally get their first Big East win of the year.  St. Johns comes into an interesting spot after playing Duke as Coach K got his 1000th victory.  I'm sure they put a lot of effort to make sure that didn't happen on their floor, but came up short.  It's not like Creighton has been a bad team they have been largely unlucky and have faced a very difficult schedule.  Kenpom has them as the #1 toughest schedule in conference play while St. Johns is 7th so I'm not surprised they have lost every game.  They still have a top 100 offense adjusted at the end of the day and they are playing at home.  Their adjusted SOS for defenses faced is 24th while St John's is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency in conference play.  St Jonh's is 4-6 vs. Top 100 offenses and 3 of those 4 wins came at home. 

NETS +14 3.3* NBA POD

Florida -1 5.5* NCAAB POD

Florida is a desperate team right now meanwhile Auburn just came off a home win over their biggest rival in Auburn in dramatic fashion.  Florida is a far better team that has gotten really unlucky this year but they are top 60 in 2 point offense and defense as well as top 100 in offense and defensive rebounding.  Alabama not a good rebounding team at all ranks 187th in rebound rate on the season while Florida is 78th.  I see a bit of a hang over for Alabama here with Kentucky up next it's a nice sandwich game and I love how desperate this Florida team should be here tonight.  Alabama also is 0-3 vs. top 50 2 point defensive teams which Florida fits.  Meanwhile Florida is 6-1 vs. teams that do not rank in the top 100 in adjusted defense which Alabama fits.  Florida has faced a more challenging schedule ranked 16th toughest and it will benefit them down the stretch. 

[b]76ers +15 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans playing in their 6th game in 9 days.  They get the lowly 76ers, and I doubt they are going to be up to dominate this game and win by 16 points or more.  Pelicans also just came off a huge upset win at home over Dallas on Sunday which sets them up for a potential let down spot.  The 76ers meanwhile come in on 1 days rest after losing 83-101 as 17.5 point dog vs. Memphis.  However, the day of rest and the value we are getting here is too much to pass up considering the situation.  The Pelicans also are without Jrue Holliday and already lost on the road to the 76ers as a 7 point favorite.  Since when is home court worth 8 points in the NBA?  

NC State +1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Looking over these two teams there is not much that separates them.  Notre Dame's offensive stats are very impressive, but you have to take a look at who they have played.  So far they rank 277th in strength of schedule meanwhile NC State comes into this game ranking #34th in strength of schedule.  NC State is a well balanced team top 100 in offensive and defensive efficiency.  They are also the better rebounding team especially at home.  The great thing about NC State is that they are a focused team going 7-0 following a loss.  They lost a game against Virginia on the road and bounced back to beat Duke on their home court recently.  I think Notre Dame could also be peaking to their game on Wednesday with Duke.

[b]Pacers -125 4* NBA POD[/b]

Both of these teams are struggling, but the Pacers get George Hill back who is an intricate part of this team over the years.  There is no doubt their offense will improve with him back on the court.  Orlando is just a bad bad team as they are ranking 20th in 2 point %, but even worse when playing at home, while also ranking 27th in 2 point defense and 26th in rebounding %.  Those 3 categories are what I call the core of the game.  On any given day anyone can get hot, but statistically speaking the odds are against them here.  Indiana is worse in 2 point offense, but I believe that improves with Hill's ability to find guys open looks and their defense is still one of the best ranking 7th in 2 point defense.  Orlando is 4-11 vs. top 10 2 point defensive teams this year.  Indiana is also 6th in rebounding rate and Orlando is 6-13 vs. top 10 rebounding teams.  

Bucks +2.5 3.3* NBA POD

LA Monroe +1 4.4* NCAAB POD

I will go with the home dog in this spot.. First of all Monroe has faced a much more difficult schedule than Georgia Southern along the way at #197 compared to #309 for Georgia Southern.  Both teams have top 100 adjusted defenses with offenses that struggle.  I took a look at what each team did against top 100 defenses and LA Monroe was more impressive at 2-2 facing Florida on the road they took them to OT, and they lost by only 8 at New Mexico.  Actually all 4 of their games vs. top 100 defenses came on the road so it's no shock to me why their offense has struggled this year.  Meanwhile Georgia Southern went 3-1, but they played TExas State twice who is ranked 275th in 2 point defense where as Monroe carries a top 50 2 point and 3 point % defense.  Georgia also had the advantage of playing 2 of those games at home, but now they are on the road where Monroe should also enjoy the rebounding edge.  Also worth noting is the fact that Georgia Southern is ranked 92nd in 2 point defense but on the road they are allowing 46.5% compared to Monroe who is allowing 41.4% at home.  Remember Monroe has had a more challenging schedule to get there.

Indiana -110 3.3* NCAAB POD

I'm going with the Hoosiers here as Maryland is getting a lot of credit and rightfully so, but I still think they are a bit over rated for this spot on the road.  They did beat Michigan State twice already this year, but they have been a team that you can score on and Indiana has a top 50 offense and they can score from inside and out.  Meanwhile they have struggled to guard the 2, but Maryland struggles to shoot it especially on the road.  Indiana is 4-1 vs. power conferences who have top offenses and when you look at those teams who struggle to score inside they are 2-0.  Both Pitt and Butler have quality offenses but their 2 point offense is a weakness much like Maryland all 3 ranked outside the top 100 in 2 point offense. 

[b]Ole Miss +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Both teams here come off equal impressive victories, but Georgia just beat their #1 rival in Florida and they did so as an under dog so I'm expecting a bit of a hang over here as Ole Miss comes to town getting 4 points which I just feel is too much.  Ole Miss has some great wins and has faced the SEC's toughest schedule and have looked better doing so than Georgia.  The biggest difference is defense.  Both teams are going to attempt the majority of their shots inside the arch (over 70%) and Georgia is ranked 14th (dead last) in the conference defending the 2 point game and they rank 78th int he nation.  Meanwhile Ole Miss is 11th in the nation defending the 2.  They had success recently against Kentucky nearly winning in OT on the road so they should not be freaked out by going on the road in conference play one bit.  Ole Miss also handles the ball better and is nearly even with Georgia in rebounding.  I expect a tight game throughout with Ole Miss pulling out to an early lead.  

Georgetown +4 4.4* NCAAB POD

I think the Hoyas have the ingredients to pull off the upset as they are very good in 2 point defense and 2 point offense.  They are the more physical team and better rebounding team and playing at home.  Also worth noting is the fact that Georgetown has played the 25th toughest schedule while Nova is at 63rd.  Both teams are top 60 in adjusted offense and defense, but really sticks out in this one is Georgetown's 12th ranked block % and 47th ranked 2 point % defense.  Their ability to defend in the paint is critical here and the fact that the majority of their shots will come from here it's key that Villanova, a team getting a ton of hype right now has the 110th ranked 2 point defense.  Georgetown will take 71%+ of their shots from 2 and  Nova allows 45.6% and even worst at 49.7% on the road.  12 of their opponents have not even been top 150 in 2 point offense so it's not like they've faced quality teams along the way.  The teams that have been good at scoring inside the arch have regularly put up 70+ points but don't have the defense and rebounding ability that Georgetown has. Georgetown is 9-0 when they score 71+ points this season which I think they get to tonight. 

[b]Oregon +4 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

This is offense vs. defense with Oregon being in the top 100 in offense and in the top 10 in tempo while Washington is top 50 in defense.  Washington has really had an easy schedule to start the year 240th ranked SOS while Oregon sits in at 141.  The stats are similar on both sides so I'm not surprised that the line is 4 points, but I believe we are getting just a a couple of extra points and the fact that Oregon comes off a lost while Washington comes off a win gives me enough incentive to pull the trigger. 

Oregon can play defense as well ranked 13th in 2 point defense compared to Washington at 5th, but the difference in this game is rebounding and getting to the FT line.  Oregon is better ranking 12th in FT % while Washington is at 273 and they are a slightly better rebounding team as well.  I think their pace is also going to get to Washington who is used to a slower type of game which allows them to set up their defense and be in good position.  A team that pushes their possessions changes that completely and it's not surprising to see that Washington is 1-2 against top pace teams with their win coming by just 2 points over Oklahoma.

Seahawks -7 5.5* NFL POD

The Seahawks will return to the Super Bowl.. So R-E-L-A-X relax as one of the most arrogant QB's of all time will go down this Sunday by double digits!  First of all Aaron Rodgers is clearly not healthy in the beginning of games and the Packers struggled for 3 quarters to move the ball consistently on the Dallas Cowboys.  Now they turn up the competition and go on the road where they have not played well all season.  Seattle's defense is playing better than it has all year and I think this is just a mismatch.  The Packers do have the better QB, but defense wins championships and it's too bad that Rodgers can use this strained calf as an excuse.  He seemed to be pacing himself in the game on Sunday which was smart and by the 4th quarter he was lose and almost appearing to be 100%.

This offense topped 30 points only once on the road this year and it was against the Chicago Bears defense that was depleted at the time. The Bears finished the season ranked 30th in yards per play allowed on defense.  Seattle is #1 currently while the Packers are #1 on offensive yards per play they are 9th when it comes to yds/play on the road gaining nearly 1 yard less.

Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAB PO

I'm going with Oregon State here as the defensive team going against an offensive team.  Oregon State and Washington State are being said to be evenly matched based on this spread.  Washington State was just an 11.5 point dog at Washington meanwhile Oregon State was a 7 point dog vs. Washington so I really see that this spread should be -1 or a pk for this game, but because Washington State has just won three straight games SU and ATS as an under dog in conference play we have to respect them, but I just feel the more balanced team is Oregon State.  They also come off a loss where they have been especially dangerous going 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31.  They have a top 50 defense and WAshington State has gone just 3-3 vs. top 100 defenses.  Washington State relies on the 3 ball way too much and are shooting it 43% of the time at home, but Oregon State is 12th in the nation at defending the 3.

On the flip side we have Washington State here who is a top 100 offense ranked 74th in adjusted offense.  Oregon State has gone 4-2 vs. top 100 offenses and when they face a defense that's outside the top 200 they are 6-0.  Defense really carries a team on the road and I love the guard play of Oregon State led by Gary Payton (yes the son of Gary Payton).  He's a reason why they are so good defending the 3 and rank top 20 in turnover % defense.  This team is also ranked 75th in rebounding % compared with Wash State who is 148th.  They just are flat out the better team and not being treated as such. 

Idaho +5.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

I like the Vandals here in this spot.  They are the better team overall and though they are on the road we only account 3-4 points so I think they should be more like a 3 point under dog yet we are getting over 5 points at some books.  Both of these clubs have top 100 offenses and are #1 and #2 in offense in their conference but are below average on defense ranking 10th and 11th in conference play.  Idaho overall has faced a bit stronger schedule as far as the offenses they have gone up against and they have held up better vs. top 100 offenses going 1-2 but holding those opponents to 89, 86, and 71 meanwhile Sacramento State vs. top 100 offenses (like they'll face today) has gone 0-3 and allowed 84, 80 and 104 losing by 11, 5, and 46.  Their last game vs. Northern Colorado looks awfully similar to this game. Northern Colorado has a top 100 offense (Idaho is a bit better) and a bottom of the league defense (Idaho is a bit better).  Overall I'd say Idaho is a better team than Northern Colorado who is far worse in rebound rate and just a bit worse in 2 point defense.  Actually Idaho is better in both those categories than Sac State.  The most glaring is the advantage they'll have on the boards here tonight ranking in the top 100 in rebound rate while Sacramento State comes in at 237th.  I expect Idaho to win this game outright but 5.5 points is just too good to be true. 

[b]Vanderbilt -2 3.3* NCAAB POD[/b]

I will go with the home team here tonight as I think Vanderbilt is in better shape to take this game.  Georgia is off 2 losses including a dramatic over time loss to LSU and they have a look ahead spot with Florida up next a game that is much sexier than playing Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt has a very solid team and are also coming off a loss without any look ahead games and the Commodores are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS loss.

Georgia is going to take 75% of their shots from 2 point range and Vanderbilt is a very good rebounding team especially at home where they get 55% of the rebounds.  Their defense improves by 5% from 2 point range when they are at home so that's another edge they will have in this game.  Georgia's defense just has not transitioned on the road and they are one of the worst  in the SEC.  They have played 4 top 50 adjusted offenses this year (Vanderbilt is 30th), and have gone 1-3 and I think tonight will make them 1-4. 

76ers +16.5 3.3* NBA POD

16.5 points is a lot of points to lay even though the 76ers typically are up to the task, but they come off a double digit home loss where they are 10-3 ATS following such a scenario.  They also have some decent wins of late and have won 3 of their last 5 while the Raptors have lost 5 of their last 6.  The Raptors also have a bigger game ahead of them in Atlanta. Toronto also has not played good enough defense for me to back them as such a favorite ranking 23rd in opponent shooting %, Philadelphia ranks 21st and 25th in 2 point % where Philadelphia will take 75% of their shots on Wednesday night.

Ohio State +7 bovada 5.5* MAX  POD / Ohio State +185 2* bonus

Oregon and Ohio State are very similar teams in statistical breakdowns.  I think both of their scores are a bit misleading from the semifinals.  Both were +110 or more yards over their opponent, but as we all know now Ohio State did it against a better opponent than Oregon.  We are still catching a TD dog at many books here and I'm even going to play Ohio State on the money line for a 2* bonus.  The Big Ten has gotten crap all season long and then it looked worse when Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech.  However, this bowl season the Big Ten has some pretty singificant wins on their resume including Michigan State over Baylor, Rutgers over UNC in blowout fashion, Penn State over BC, Wisconsin beat Auburn and Nebraska hung with USC and lost by 3.

I watched the entire Oregon vs Florida State game 2 times this week after watching it live and Florida State really moved the ball up and down the field and had over 500 yards of offense.  I see no reason why Ohio State can not do the same thing.  People keep doubting Cardale Jones, but Urban Meyer has always had a top QB and he's prove that he puts them in a system or scenarios that have a long history of success.  Jones did not seem to be phased one bit in the game against mighty Alabama while if you go back and watch the first half of the Oregon game, Marcus Mariotta really took a while to get going and in the first half he really was not off to a great start.  This Florida State team flat out gave up after Cook fumbled the ball twice and from there it was just a domino effect.  Cook was having a great game as well, but after he was benched the Florida State offense really did not have the same impact.  Ezekial Elliot is not going to fumble multiple times and Urban Meyer will be sure as hell they don't turn the ball over 5 times or allow 35 points off turnovers.  I still think if you had Oregon play Florida State again I would take the points again because this was a ball game until the shit hit the fan with the turnovers.

A few things here - Ohio State is a much better defense ranking 11th in yards per play allowed compared to Florida State ranking 66th and even Oregon at 53.  Now Oregon does have the better offense, but I can see Ohio State controlling this game on the ground.  And no it's not because I think Oregon is "soft."  I hope to hell we don't have to hear that brought up all game again.  In the end I'm taking the far better coach with the far better track record as a TD dog.  I'll also take them on the money line and hedge in live game if we need to.

Cowboys +5 5.5* NFL POD

Of all the road teams this week I think Dallas has the best shot at coming out on top.  Everyone is piling on the Cowboys and the officiating from a week ago but I still think this Cowboys team is more focused and ready to continue their run for a rematch in Seattle.  They are 1 of 4 teams with a top 10 rushing and top 10 passing attack, and the only one with a top 5 of both.  Green Bay's defense is going to struggle in this game.  The other two times they faced a top 10 balanced attack they lost and gave up 200 yards rushing in both games. I expect much of the same here with Dallas picking up nearly 200 yards rushing and controlling the game.

Tony Romo never gets the credit he deserves and even if Suh was held like crazy on the last play of the game last week I think it's finally time for Romo to win a big playoff game and earn the credit.  Romo had a 121.8 QB rating on the road this year and nobody else is even close.  He benefits from having the best rushing team in the league, but he's played smart.  Demarco Murray should be fresh in this game coming off just 19 carries vs. the Lions and Romo has 4 legit weapons to pass to in Beasley, Witten, Williams, and of course the diva Dez Bryant.  All 4 bring something different to the table.

Dallas still has to defend, but they seem to be getting better as the season goes along. They were #3 in the league in opposing QB rating on the road holding 8 QB's to a combined 81.2 QB rating.  Although they haven't played someone as good as Aaron Rodgers, they just seem to be a very good road team that I would like to back at this point in the season. 

Ravens +7.5 5.5* NFL POD
I am going to grab this line right now.  The Ravens have proven that when they are in the playoffs they are one tough team to beat.  It's a combination of Joe Flacco being so cool and their coach John Harbough who is one of the best in the league.  Harbough is 9-4 in post season play and 2-1 in New England including a game that they arguably should have won. That's not to say that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren't great in their own right, but over a TD is just too much when you consider that the Ravens are the physical type of team the Patriots hate to play and struggle with.  The Ravens strengths are up front along the defensive line they have the run stuff unit that is among the best in the league led by Ngata and Suggs and Dumervil are terrorizing off the edge and could give Brady some issues.  Bottom line this Ravens team was the best in their division all year long and proved that by moving on yesterday.

Bulls +1.5 3.3* NBA POD

I will go with the Bulls here considering they are coming off a 20 point loss to the Jazz and I know Coach Tom Thibodeau is an excellent coach who preaches defense first and will want to rebound in a hurry and going up against a very good playoff team like the Wizards will be an excellent way of forgetting the embarrassment from their last game.  Meanwhile the Wizards just won over the Knicks by 10, but the Knicks are the worst team in the league and were playing withouth Anthony Soutdemire and JR Smith.

Michigan State +3 -102 3.5* NCAAB POD

I will take the Spartans here in conference play as a dog.  First of all their adjusted offense and defensive numbers are quite impressive being 43rd on the offensive end and 9th on the defensive end.  Their offense is very balanced with 4 guys averaging double digits which normally translates well on the road  and they have a guy in Denzel Valentine that can score from anywhere on the court. The Spartans have also played 4 top 20 teams at the time they have played them and rank 90th in strength of schedule.  There loss to Texas Southern at home and then losing to Maryland at home as well is what gives us some nice value on the road here.  The defense is playing much better and they are top 25 in effective FG% on the defensive and offensive end.

Iowa on the other hand are 260th in strength of schedule and they are 261st in effective FG%.  They rebound well and play solid defense, but I think both teams here play solid defense and Michigan State really has the advantage in coaching and in their offense.  This will be a tough task for the Spartans, but I think they are up for it.

Pacers +11.5 3.3* NBA POD

I like Indiana here tonight getting 11.5 points as they are 8-2 ATS as a dog of 8+ points this year and 13-4-1 ATS on 1 days rest.  The Warriors have been red hot beating some very good teams in impressive fashion winning by ATS margins of 22.5, 16.5, and 22.5 so Vegas has been pretty far off.  They are still getting the majority of the money here tonight, but I think we will see an inspired performance from the Pacers facing off a team that is now the #1 defense in the league in the Warriors which is something the Pacers were very proud of in years past.  

Florida -115 3.5* NCAAB POD

I really like Florida here to rebound following 2 straight losses as heavy favorites.  Despite having a worse record we have them ranked higher than South Carolina who is off to a hot start at 7-3 ATS while Florida comes in at 3-8-1 ATS.  Don't let those records fool you as South Carolina has faced a strength of schedule of 178th while Florida comes in at 62nd.  Florida has the 81st adjusted offensive ranking compared to South Carolina at 133, but both of these teams play defense.  I think the team that's more desperate with the better offense will be able to come out of this with a key victory especially since the home team is riding high off their recent upset of Iowa State as a 6.5 point dog which is making them a heavier favorite than they should. 

Texas A&M +5 3.3* NCAAB POD / Under 126.5 2.2* bonus[/b]

the public has pushed this number quite a bit but I'll take A&M who I think is the better team at least in adjusted rankings.  Home court is not worth this many points and there are several other factors that make Alabama a risky play such as the number of times they take three point shots.  Roughly 40% of their shots are from three and that really falls into the Aggies strength here ranking 41st in three point defense and they have actually allowed 25.6% on the road.  Overall they rank #54 in adjusted defense compared to Alabama who is ranked 74th.  So we also get the better defense on the road while we also get the better rebounding team as A&M ranks 62nd compared to Alabama at 141st.  I also think Alabama's offense has been as good as it has been because of the teams they have faced as the opponent defense strength of schedule comes in at 327.  This is clearly a step up and A&M should keep this game in the 50's.  A&M faced two similar teams with this type of defense and were held to 52 and 56 points against Wichitah State and UCLA neither of which are ranked in the top 100 in 3 point defense or even 2 point defense for that matter.  For that reason I will also go with the under as the Aggies are Under in 43 of their last 62 road games and the Crimson Tide are also under in their last 4 vs. the SEC and 31 of their last 43 following a SU win.

Georgia -170 2* free play

I'll take Georgia on the money line here for a free play.  All my free plays will be on the money line either for favorites or under dogs.  I missed this at a better line, but I'm still confident playing Georgia considering they are the unranked team as favorites.  Georgia is actually the better team and have faced the 45th toughest schedule compared to Arkansas and their 267th.  Georgia has a 7.5% rebound rate advantage in home/away splits and Arkansas's high flying offense really has not faced a defense with an opponent defense strength of schedule ranked 247.  Georgia plays defense as good as any team ranked 19th in adjusted defense and 18th in 2 point % defense where Arkansas will take many of their shots.

Don't miss out on our NCAAB POD as we are up over 100 units in our career on NCAAB TOP PLAYS!

Lions +7 5.5* NFL POD

I will take the Lions here in this spot as the Cowboys really have not played well at home this year with all 4 of their losses coming here.  I really do not trust either QB in this spot, but the Lions defense is much better than the Cowboys and they match up well being able to defend the run.  They were #1 in stopping the run this year and allowed the 2nd fewest points and yards.  They also did all of this with a more challenging schedule.

The Cowboys have been able to hide some of their defensive weaknesses this year by controlling the game with the ground game, but they enter this game with Demarco Murray having nearly 400 carries, around 80 more than any other back.  I think it's a high risk play against a physical defense to back the Cowboys as a TD favorite.  I could easily see Dallas defense getting into trouble against Detroit if they are on the field for too long.  I will take the team with the better defense getting this many points especially when their strength equally matches the strength of the opponent. 

Cardinals +7 -115 buy hook - 5.5* max NFL POD

I suspect this game will jump to 7 by the time the game kicks off, but I'm comfortable with the Cardinals at 6.5 as well.  Carolina has been on fire winning 4 in a row, but they have had the 22nd ranked strength of schedule to get into the playoffs they played teams ranked with some very bad defenses including the Saints (31st), Falcons (32nd), Bucs (25th) and the Browns (23rd).  The point spread is based all off the fact that the Cardinals have no QB, but my friends despite what the media portrays this game of football is about more than just 1 position.

The Cardinals are 11-5 and are off two losses so the public is far down on them and Vegas has set an inflated line here and the value is certainly on the Cardinals.  This is a team that has played Denver, KC, San Diego along with Philly, Dallas and Detroit and their normal division games.  They have the 10th toughest schedule and went 11-5 all without a QB.  I'm trusting Bruce Arian and his coaching ability here.  I expect him to have Ryan Lindley ready to go in this one and I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals win the game outright! 

Wash/Okl St U57 4.4* NCAAF POD

This total is just far too high and man may think that Oklahoma State's offense is turning the corner with 38 points vs. Oklahoma and 28 vs. Baylor, two solid defenses, but in both games they had 14 entering the 4th quarter.  Washington is just too strong up front to allow something like that and they are well coached by Chris Petersen.  Washington's defense has 3 All-American's up front and Oklahoma State's offensive line has yielded 37 sacks during the regular season.  Expect Danny Shelton to give this offense a lot of issues along with Kikaha and Hudson off the edge.  This is a team that put up 9 on TCU and 7 vs. Texas the only 2 teams in the top 30 in yards per play allowed.  Washington is 27th.

On the flip side Washington put up some big points at the end of the year also inflating this total in my opinion, but their offense is ranked 96th in adjusted offense.  This is a team that has not beaten a bowl team all year long, but they have won the games they were supposed to.  They will run the ball 60% of the time which should shorten the game quite a bit considering Washington's strong and experienced offensive line will create issues for Oklahoma State as well.  Look for RB Dwayne Washington to have a strong day running the ball, but when they get into the red zone they will have issues.  Mike Gundy is an excellent coach and his players do not give up.  They have played well in the red zone all year long allowing just 57% conversions.  Washington's offense has had little success here only scoring TD's on 52% of their opportunities and 36% over their last 8 games.  I can easily see Washington winning this game and even getting to 30 points, but their defense is just too strong and Oklahoma State will be starting a QB with little experience.  

Ohio State +8 2.2* play

Florida State +8 5.5* NCAAF POD

Oregon has been extremely impressive to close out the year and probably deserve to be more than a TD favorite, but this is new territory for Florida State who haven’t lost in 2 seasons.  They have not been a dog since 2011 at Clemson and I think they will be extra motivated because of it.  Not only does Florida State have more talent as far as more guys will be NFL draft picks, but I think they have the better QB for a big game like this.  I’m still not sold on what Marcus Mariota can do in a big game and this is his chance to prove his doubters wrong.  Winston has proved it and he should be extra motivated in this spot as a big dog facing the QB that won the Heisman this year.  For Winston everything is behind him as far as what happened off the field and he gets to lead his team against the West Coast guys in Pasadena.

Florida State just never won with glamour this year and that’s the biggest difference between these two teams.  Many feel the ACC is down, but I have to disagree when you look at how they have performed this bowl season.  Boston College played well against Penn State, Duke covered and gave Arizona State who similarly to Oregon was a TD favorite, Clemson just absolutely dominated Oklahoma and Virginia Tech got a nice win as well.  Now North Carolina was a bad team from the start, but there were highlights of a good team at times. 

It’s also worth noting that Florida State’s offense has opened up with the emergence of Dalvin Cook and the fact that they ran the ball against some pretty good defenses down the stretch including, 5.77 ypc vs. Louisville, 6.00 vs. Miami, 4.41 vs. Florida, and 5.42 vs. Georgia Tech.  Winston won’t have to do it on his own, but having balance from Cook makes him all that more dangerous.  At the end of the day 8.5 points is far too much with Winston in control and a defense that can make plays.  Oregon’s defense has had some pretty bad moments at time this year too and even if Oregon gets a head Florida State is always good for the back door cover.

Ole Miss +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD; U56 2.2* BONUS

Losing to Arkansas on the road, Auburn at home in a game they should have won and losing by 3 at LSU is nothing to be ashamed by.  This is a team that beat Alabama and Miss State both were ranked high when they played them.  This is a team that also played Boise State in non-conference play and a total of 9 bowl teams.  TCU put up video game like numbers along the way, but after I saw Texas lose to Arkansas, and West Virginia to Texas A&M, and Oklahoma to Clemson I am just not sold on the Big 12 right now.  Now TCU iss a different animal with a team that can play offense and defense, but in reality they had the 55th toughest schedule. Where is this team's big win?  West Virginia?  Who beat Baylor by 14? To my knowledge TCU has not played a defense that is even close to the talent level of Ole Miss. 

Ole Miss is ranked 6th in adjusted defensive rank and is probably even better with rest.  This team was banged up at the end of the year which will happen when you go through a schedule like theirs, but now they will benefit more from the time off along with the 297 mile trip compared to TCU who has to travel 750 miles.  Ole Miss is definitely pumped up to be in this bowl game against TCU and the public has been playing them hard with one simple reason. "This team is pissed it did not get into the playoff."  Of course they are and that's not a reason to bet them.  I think mentally it's more difficult to prepare for a big game like this when you think you should be playing on New Years instead.  TCU is an elite offense right?  Then why have they only converted 41% of their third downs and 60% of their red zone attempts into TD's?  I'm not buying it and an Ole Miss defense with a month to prepare should play better. 

I like this total, because both defenses are elite and at their best in the red zone.  Ole Miss and TCU will try to run the ball and each coach has been great in bowl games so I expect this game to stay close and relatively low scoring.  TCU had 36 forced turnovers this year which they relied on quite a bit to put up points and now they go up against Ole Miss who forced 28 themselves.  Expect a conservative game plan by each coach because of this, but at the end of the day I think Bo Wallace is the more experienced QB in big games and Ole Miss has the better defense so getting 3.5 points is a bargain.  The total looks good too as Ole Miss is 12-2 in their last 14 games while TCU is 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games.  Each opponent has kept their opponents under their season average.  TCU by a combined average of around 8 points, and Ole Miss by an average of 17 points.

Notre Dame/ LSU Under 52.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

First of all this game will be played on grass with two teams that will want to run the ball before they pass and two defenses that are clearly the strength and give each the best chance to win.  I expect LSU to control this game from start to finish with their veteran offensive line and talented running backs. Notre Dame will get a bit more healthy so I could see their defense stepping up to stop the run which fits their strengths far better.  Notre Dame should play even better knowing the running game is coming without much of a threat from the passing game.  On the flip side Notre Dame's strength is definitely its passing game, but they will face LSU the #1 ranked passing defense from an efficiency perspective. The last time they faced a defense this good was Stanford who they scored only 17 points on at home.

LSU's defense down the stretch was just a lock allowing 3, 10, 13, 17, and 17 points to some pretty good offenses along the way.  I could see this game going over if Notre Dame turns the ball over 4+ times, but otherwise I expect a game that neither team runs away with.  LSU struggles in the red zone so I don't expect them to have the ability to run away with this as they struggle to score down there, but LSU is very good on defense in the red zone allowing just 48.15% so that usually makes up for it.  LSU offenses have been better in years past and have never been able to put up points in bowl games, under 5-1 in their last 6 while Notre Dame is U35-17-1 in their last 53. 

Texas A&M +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

The Aggies will most certainly benefit more from the time off here after they went through a brutal schedule which many sources had as the third toughest schedule.  I had them with the 3rd most difficult schedule and West Virginia at #40.  A&M had a tough physical game they won against Arkansas, and then they played three top 5 ranked teams in Ole Miss, Miss State and Alabama.  All 3 were top 25 run defenses and play a physical brand of football.  They had 13 days off played LA Monroe, and went on the road to beat a top 5 Auburn team at the time showing that they still have the talent to compete with anyone in the country.  They finished up the season against Missouri and LSU who were two of the better teams in the country.

The SEC East was the best division in football that we have ever seen in my opinion and it can wear you down, but now with time to prepare we will see Texas A&M and Kevin Sumlin at his best.  Sumlin is a very good coach who is 3-1 in bowl games and even blew out the Big 12 in the 2012 Cotton Bowl.  He's got Kyle Allen at QB a highly touted recruit who was playing his best, but the biggest key will be whether or not A&M can run the ball.  In their wins this year they averaged 5.45 ypc and 3.14 in losses.  Lucky enough they face a West Virginia defense they should be able to run on with their speed. You could say the same about West Virginia who also needs to run the ball and A&M's defense has definitely struggled, but the fact that West Virginia will start a QB with less experience and A&M certainly has the pass rush to get after Skyler Howard who faced Kansas State and Iowa State ranked 90th and 121st in pass rush.  A&M was ranked 18th in sack % and will force mistakes in this game as West Virginia was -15 in turnover margin this year with 28 lost. 

A&M will also enjoy a nice special teams advantage as their punter averages 44.5 and the West Virginia return game is among the worst at 3.24 yards per return ranking 124th.

Under 48 5.5* NFL POD

South Carolina +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

The public has pushed this line much too far and I'll jump on it.  The reason the public likes it?  SEC East is in a down year and went 0-4 vs. the ACC the final week of the season, but Miami does not typically play an SEC team.  Teams under Al Golden usually fall quickly and they have lost 3 in a row.  I knew their season was over when they lost to Florida State in dramatic fashion.  I just don't see what Al Golden has accomplished in his career.  He's 55-55 as a head coach and I get he's had tremendous obstacles to over come but really with the talent he has he hasn't been close to having a break out year.  A lot of people have said the ACC is having a down year and really where has Miami's top win come fro?  They beat Duke at home and they were supposed to.  Meanwhile South Carolina beat Georgia, and they went on the road to beat Florida.  They also have a dual offense with a ton of experience and a ton of guys leaving for the NFL so motivation of playing in their last football game is very high.

At the end of the day the Independence Bowl is not very exciting for an SEC program like South Carolina, but the motivation is that they are playing Miami.  They also want to finish with a winning record.  The last time a Steve Spurrier coached team didn't was 1987. 

NC State/UCF Under 49 4.4* NCAAF POD

I am playing the under in this game as I just think the match up is right for it.  Neither team has a dual offense that can pass and run and both run the ball more because of that.  In close games they will run the ball even more (over 60% of the time) and that's what we are going to have on our hands here tonight.  I would lean towards NC State, but you just can't fade O'Leary in a bowl game.  I think UCF's offense is just not very good and it all starts up front where they ranked 111th in adjusted line yards.  I think they will have issues with an athletic NC State defensive line which just got finished holding UNC's potent offense to 7 points and 207 total yards.

On the other side of the ball you have NC State coming off 35 and 42 point efforts but against sub par defenses.  UCF is a dual threat defense they can stop both the run and pass and are ranked 4th in yards per play.  NC State has had 4 games against top 30 defensive yards per play units and have averaged 14 points.  They also won't have as much luck in the red zone against Central Florida who is holding opponents to 44% TD percentage so I expect a lot of field goals.  On the flip side UCF is one of the worst offenses in the red zone with 50% TD percentage and NC State's defensive unit holding opponents to 58%, but take out Georgia Tech and Florida State and they are holding opponents to 44%.  Expect both teams to move the ball at times, but I don't expect a lot of TD's in this game.  Central Florida has the neutral field advantage having to travel less than 100 miles compared to NC State at 601 but the reverse line movement on the spread hints to me this is going to be a close game and a low scoring one at that. 

San Diego State -2.5 4.4* POD

Both of these teams really had a down year compared to their standards.  Navy is used to winning the Commander Chief's trophy and San Diego State is used to being in contention in their conference, but both will get to a bowl game again.  For Navy I just feel like they have too much to over come.  San Diego State is playing a home game here in their own field and Navy is 2-5 in their last 7 bowl games.  San Diego State will have 14 extra days to prepare for the triple option and it should not be much trouble for them. 

Both teams need to run to win and that's what they hang their hat on, but Navy has issues stopping the run while San Diego State has been more consistent in that area.  The Aztecs head coach Rocky Long is no stranger to preparing for a triple option attack.  He faces Air Force every year and due to where they are located would face Army each year.  They have won their last 8 games vs. Army/Navy/Air Force dating back to the 2010 season with margin of victories around 14.6 points on average.  This is just too much in a short period of time for Navy to come off the high of beating Navy go all the way to the other side of the country and beat a team playing at home that has extra preparation and is used to preparing for your offense. 

BYU +2 4.4* NCAAF POD

I like BYU here in this game for a vareity of reasons.  First of all only 1 guy on Memphis team has bowl experience.  BYU looked worse than they did down the stretch and they will be as healthy as they have been all year int his game with the exception of Taysom Hill obviously, but this team did not seem to miss a beat without Hill.  Justin Fuente is the new hot thing for coaching given what he did with Memphis this year, but he did it in one of the worst conferences.  In fact his last 6 opponents offenses ranked no better than 94th in yards per play.  That will make any defense look elite.  Bronco Mendenhall quietly leads a team of men who will be focused and experienced in this game and certainly not distracted by Miami Beach.  Mendenhall is 4-1 in his last 5 bowl games and 3-0 against non-major conference teams.

BYU's defense is every bit as good as Memphis and they did it in a better conference facing teams like Boise State and in non conference they went up against Cal and Texas.  When Memphis stepped up in competition facing UCLA they allowed 42 points.  BYU as I mentioned before did not skip a beat with Christian Stewart taking over at QB.  In fact he finished with 22 TD's and 6 interceptions.  In adjusted opponent efficiency BYU's offense ranked 33rd to Memphis at 84th.  Memphis offense needs to run the ball to win.  They have 24 TD's and 4.61 yards per carry in wins, but 2.81 and 4 TD's in losses.  BYU is one of the best teams in run defense year in and year out and Memphis does not pose quite the threat through the air.  When BYU can concentrate on stopping the run the defense has great success and I think it will here again.  Another thing that would scare me about Memphis is the fact that they relied heavily on turnover to win games.  BYU only turned the ball over 5 times in their last 4 games. 

Steelers -2.5 3.3* play

close your eyes and picture Steelers vs. Chiefs on neutral field.  Who would win or who would be favored?  The oddsmaker's are saying it's the Chiefs, and I may seem like a square here today, but I'm taking the Steelers.  The Steelers defense has been horrible and the Chiefs offense looked great a week ago, but I find it hard to believe the Chiefs offense can look that good back to back weeks.  The majority of the year the Chiefs offense has struggled and even though the Steelers struggle on defense I still think this defense can put together a solid game against a one dimensional attack.  The Chiefs still don't have a WR with a TD reception this year while the Steelers are #1 in the league in offensive yards per play.

The Steelers have a balanced offense and the entire strategy of the Chiefs defense is getting to the QB.  That is just not going to happen when you have one of the best QB's in the league and a balanced offense.  At this time of the year I like to say defense wins championship and the Chiefs definitely have the better defense but they are flawed.  They can't stop the run 30th in the league allowing 4.9 yards per carry and their secondary is suspect when their terrific pass rushers don't get to the QB. Big Ben has been sacked just 1.49% of his drop backs over the last 3 weeks.  I expect the Steelers to win to stay pace with the their division foes.

UTAH/COL ST U58 5.5* NCAAF POD

I will gladly take the under here and we are getting tremendous value here based on a few scenarios.  First of all Colorado State has put up some points and Utah's defense the last two weeks of the season has looked average, but give Kyle Whittingham extra time to prepare for an offense and he usually shuts them down.  Facing opponents with extra rest he held 3 power 5 conference opponents to an average of 18 points per game.  Colorado State has had a very nice season, but their head coach left for Florida and they have faced some bad defenses along the way.  Only 3 ranked in the top 70 and they averaged just 21 points against those never topping 24.  I mean they faced 128th, 126th, 124th ranked defense from a yards per play perspective.  You are going to put up points against those type of defenses.  Utah is not as bad as they looked the last two weeks of the season and their defense will rebound.

For Colorado State it all starts with the passing game.  In wins they have a 180 QB rating and in losses they have a 129.  Utah has one of the best front seven's in the country and rank #2 in pass rush.  Colorado State faced 4 teams with top 40 pass rushing units and they struggled against all 4 never scoring more than 24 points and going just 2-2.  Now this will still be a tough game for Utah to win and that's why I won't play them ATS.  However, the match up in their favor is Colorado State's rushing defense.  Colorado State also lacks depth on their front and rank 81st in ypc run defense.  Utah's offense with Devontae Booker should be able to run and pick up first downs while moving the clock.  This team likes to win those low scoring game which I think this will be in the end. 

Cowboys +3.5 3.3* Play

I liked the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now I certainly can not go against that just 3 weeks later.  Tony Romo is a different QB here tonight in my opinion as he just really was no healthy on Thanksgiving.  The Cowboys have the revenge, but they have 3 extra days of rest which is a huge huge deal at this point in the season.  The Cowboys offensive line will have a deciding advantage when you look at the physical game the Eagles had to play just a week ago against the Seahawks.  It's also interesting to note that the Cowboys have played better on the road on defense all year long.  That's mainly due to the fact that the Cowboys will stick to the running game longer on the road.  It's the best game plan for them and I think it works tonight just because of the extra rest and given the opponent that the Eagles had to face a week ago.

What is also impressive is that this Dallas offense is #1 in third down conversion % overall and on the road due to their excellent run game.  The Cowboys also won't have to deal with a stacked box if the Eagles are smart about it as a healthy Tony Romo can pull off the play action game better than any QB.  The extra game preparation off a loss with revenge will give the Cowboys an excellent chance to keep the Eagles off guard while the defense should have a good game against Mark Sanchez who for the first time this year is facing a defense for the second time.  A lot of people are giving Chip Kelly credit for what he does following a loss, but... 3-0 This year and his wins have come against the Texans, Titans, and Rams which neither of those 3 teams are going to the playoffs.  Last year this Cowboys team whose defense was atrocious held the Eagles to 3 poitns in their own building.  That was after this elite offense that was putting up 30pts off back to back games.  Chip Kelly is good, but it's worth mentioning he's 5-14-1 ATS in his last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Vikings +8 5.5* NFL POD

In the last match up Teddy Bridgewater really struggled with 0 TD and 3 interceptions against a good defense, but Bridgewater has really progressed since then and this Vikings team has been covering games.  I still think the Lions are over rated and although their offense is healthy they face a Vikings defense that knows them pretty damn well.  The Lions have only scored 30 points 3x this year all vs. shitty defenses which the Vikings are in the average to above average tier.  The Lions are also 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games following a 30+ point game in their previous game.  It's a good trend to look at, because just as you think Matthew Stafford is about to turn the corner he comes up with a bad performance.  Stafford is a records hoarder, but I don't see him as a leader of a team that can win meaningful games in December.  I won't be shocked if the Vikings come up with the divisional upset here.  The Vikings are playing their best when and where it matter, in the red zone.  Over their last 3 games they have allowed opponents to score just 30% of the time and they themselves have scored 75% of the time.  Those trends continue here today.

Colts -1 / Bengals +8.5 4.4* Teaser of the Week

The Colts know if they win this game they lock up the division and I think they should win easily while the Bengals go on the road to play a Browns team getting a ton of credit right now.  It is still the Bengals division to win and I think they put up a fight with the teaser giving us great value here.  Manziel makes his first start against a very good defense and I wouldn't be surprised if they gave him a lot of trouble here.  Welcome to the NFL Manziel on a huge stage with a game your team needs you to win.

Ohio State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD Ohio State +175 1.5* play

This has tight game written all over it.  Wisconsin has soared as almost what you’d consider to be a heavy favorite.  Ohio state has had issues vs. the run the last few weeks and Wisconsin obviously has the best rushing offense they have faced.  A lot of experts are saying whoever runs the ball better wins this game, but I’m not so sure.  Ohio State actually is allowing more yards per run in their wins than their losses and Wisconsin is rushing for the same in their wins and losses.  I think the team that wins is going to be the team whose QB plays better and plays better in the red zone, but either way we are looking at a conservative game late with the QB play just not being there and two extremely talented defenses against the run.

Ohio State has Cardale Jones coming in and I think it’s harder for Wisconsin because they really do not know what they are going to see.  Urban Meyer also is very good with QB’s in his system and I’m not worried one bit.  I mean try to think back and tell me who the last bad QB was under Meyer?  Even Kenny Guiton put up 14 TD and 2 INT last year while Miller was out.  Shit if you look back to his Utah days Urban Meyer has produced a QB rating the last 9 seasons he’s coached of 16th, 3rd, 37th, 24th, 1st, 8th, 1st, 10th, and 3rd which is ridiculous.  So whatever line they moved for this game because of the QB play I’m thinking we have value being on the side of a coach that’s better than his opponent.

I also think Joel Stave is going to have a lot of issues moving the ball when he has to.  In Wisconsin losses he has a 51 QB rating and in wins he has a 147.  Ohio State has only allowed 7 passing TD’s and has 13 INT’s in conference play.  They are +5 in turnover margin while Wisconsin is -2.  Wisconsin is also not very good in red zone defense which should be the difference as they are allowing 72% TD rate when opponents get there.

Oregon/Arizona U74.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This total makes a lot of sense when you see the first game got to 50+ points with Oregon playing with 4 new offensive linemen.  I would have leaned towards Oregon to cover the spread, but I did not get it at -13.5 in time.  I actually like the total play, because I think Oregon's defense is going to shut this Arizona offense out.  This is an offense that's not as good as it was in previous years while the Oregon defense has been improving.  Arizona is not running the ball as well as it did last year and we get a high total based on what?

Arizona has scored 42 points the last 2 weeks, but in one game they needed 4 turnovers, and the other they only had 333 yards, but relied on big plays.  I don't see either happening on Friday night.  This game is also on the grass which should slow the game down a bit if Arizona does not already play their part in doing so with their run first mentality.  Oregon's offense has struggled against this 3-3-5 defense that Arizona plays and I think it will at times again.  I don't see them getting to 50 points while I could easily see them in the 40's.  I see a max score of 45-28 or 42-31, but more than likely this Oregon defense is going to hold Arizona under 30 points which should get us the under in this one.  This was a game that was 7-3 at the half during the regular season and both defenses held their opposing offense under 500 total yards.

Teaser of the Week Bonus - 10-1 This Season

Northern Illinois -0.5 / Cincinnati -1 (See Free Pick for N. ILL reasoning)

 This team has a ton to play for on Saturday while Houston really not so much.  With a win the Bearcats could share the league title and they should easily be motivated to do so.  What is impressive is that this team only lost to Ohio State, Memphis (best team in the AAC), and Miami (2 of 3 of those were on the road).  Houston has beaten the teams they should and lost to the ones they should and this is just too much for them to do.  Go on the road with your one dimensional offense in the last game of the season and face a team that features the best offense you have faced all year  and beat them while spoiling their chances at winning their conference title.  I don't think it will happen and I love the fact that Cincinnati who is not as strong on defense has been dominant in the red zone and much better in conference play.  Take out the Miami and Ohio State games and this defense is just fine.  Houston is going to have issues scoring in this game.  Houston also has to face Cinci a top 30 offense in yards per play.  Houston has not faced 1 other school this year that is in the top 50.

 Broncos +1 5.5* NFL POD

I like the Broncos here I have been saying for weeks that the Chiefs are over rated. Everyone thinks of the Chiefs as a top tier defense and for the most part they are, but this defense has one glaring weakness and it is stopping the run.  The Chiefs are ranked 32nd allowing 5.0 yards per carry and they are allowing 5.6 over their last 3 alone.  Denver's 3 road losses came to the Rams where they only rushed the ball 10 times, the Patriots 17 times and the Seahawks 20-36.  Denver should take the lead first in this game and use the running game to close this one out.  They are undefeated when they run for more than 100 yards and I think they can easily get that tonight if they stay dedicated.  Peyton Manning will not hesitate to hand the ball off more times than he throws especially in a game where his defense can handle their own facing one of the worst offenses in the league.

The Chiefs go up against the Broncos run defense which is #2 in the league and #1 in rushing defense on the road allowing 3.1 yards per carry.  I think it's just a bad match up and this the type of game the Broncos made acquisitions for in the off season to win.  I see them winning big and I'll take the points.

LSU -2.5 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5* SEC GOW POD

Both even records and why is LSU favored to begin with?  This is just a tough match up for Texas A&M in my opinion.  Texas A&M needs to pass the ball to be successfull and that's LSU's defensive strength.  LSU needs to run the ball to be successful on offense and that'st Texas A&M's weakness.  This just sets up perfectly for a hungry LSU team off two consecutive losses.  First of all lets go over the Arkansas disaster.

Losing to Arkansas 17-0 and this team was not happy about it.  A lot factored into this and it was my SEC game of the month.  Arkansas was craving their first SEC win and were beyond due coming off a bye while LSU just got done losing a heartbreaker to Alabama.  LSU also suffered 2 key injuries to their offensive line in that game and after the extra time both players will be back for this one which is great news.  LSU's offense struggles when they face teams that can stop the run.  In fact all 4 losses were against teams that can stop the run pretty damn well.  They also won 2 close games vs. Florida (10th in the nation vs. the run), and Wisconsin (4th).  However they are rushing for nearly 2 yards per carry more in their wins.  Key to the game - Run the damn ball!  On paper it says LSU can not run on the road, but that is a bunch of bull shit.  All of their road games have come against opponents that are elite in stopping the run.  Now A&M is pure trash against the run.  Ranking 105th in yards per carry allowed.  They are 105th in adjusted line yards allowed, 124th in standard down yards, 103rd in opponent power success and 115th in stuff rate.  LSU's offensive line is the strength and it's a veteran bunch that are pissed off about how they played at Arkansas.  Watch what happens in their last game of the season.

LSU defensively now are a good match up they are ranked 16th in adjusted line yards.  They can have trouble stopping the run sometimes but have improved down the stretch.  Their pass defense is the real strength and when A&M can't pass they lose.  In fact all 4 of their losses have come against these 4 pass defensive rankings, 26th, 9th, 11th, and 27th and LSU is 3rd.  This is the best pass defense they have faced all year.  A&M's wins were against pass defenses all ranked outside the top 50 at 77, 91, 127, 87, 58 and 55.  LSU should dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and control it on defense on third down and in the red zone.  Texas A&M is allowing 80% red zone TD's to opponents in conference play while LSU comes in at 50%.  

Lastly, LSU also takes care of the ball with just 2 turnovers on the road on the season combined.  Meanwhile Texas A&M is -6 at home.

Dallas Cowboys -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

There is no way I can trust Mark Sanchez in this spot.  Philadelphia’s defense is not good enough to carry this team and they are susceptible against the run on the road allowing 4.4 yards per carry which is a full yard more than what they allow at home.  Dallas is 2nd in the league in rushing yards per carry behind arguably the best offensive line in the league.  The Eagles have all three of their losses at home and have not faced a team in the top 10 in rushing yards per carry since the Redskins in Week 3 who they gave up 34 points to and barely hung on at home 37-34.  Dallas is #1 in adjusted line yards at 4.57 compared with Philadelphia at 3.34 ranking 30th.  Dallas has found ways to win all season long and their aggressive defensive style should force some critical mistakes for the Eagles on the road. 

Teasing Lions -1 / U53.5 for 3.3* play BONUS

Lions losing 4 out of the last 5 games ATS, Bears 2 straight wins and covers at home against crappy teams.  Value on the Lions.  The Lions have gone under by an average of 9.6 points per game.  In their 8 games against non-elite offenses the Bears are allowing under 20 points per game.  Both offenses have star players, but have been underperforming this year as the Bears are ranked 17th in yards per play while the Detroit Lions are ranked 27th.

Also both defenses have been great in the red zone. Chicago allowing just 51% TD % in the red zone ranking 11th, and 48% on the road while the Detroit Lions come in at 12th, but allowing just 42.86% on the road.  Detroit’s offense who you would give an edge at home is ranked 24th in red zone TD% and is only converting 46.67%.  I think this is a lot of points on a short week with both offenses really not blowing anyone away.  Overall I think the Lions have the stronger defense and are the more desperate team following 2 straight losses on the road while Chicago is off 2 straight wins.

Texans -1.5 -105 5.5* NFL POD

USC +4 4.4* NCAAF POD

USC has lost the last two years to Brett Hundley, but this year feels different.  UCLA's defense gave up 37 points to Colorado and 30 to Washington and those are two offenses that do not scare you.  Cody Kessler has NFL players on his side and he's been playing just as good as Brett Hundley on the other side and USC features the better defense led by stud Leonard Williams.  In fact I think USC has the better players on both sides when you watch WR Nelson Agholor.  Kessler will have plenty of time to pass considering UCLA is 109th at getting to the QB.  UCLA's defense is also not stopping the run at all at home allowing 4.48 ypc and while USC has not been a physical imposing running game, Javorius Allen is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and has 8 100 yard games.  This is where USC will win the game, because on the flip side they are allowing 2.91 yards per carry in conference play.

Speaking of which in conference play these two teams have similar statistics.  What is surprising actually is the fact that USC's QB play is slightly better and USC's run defense is allowing over 1 yard less on the ground.  If they can contain Hundley they win this game going away, but I think it will be more difficult than that.  The key stats though are 3rd down offense, defense and TD percentage in the red zone along with turnover margin.  USC in conference play has better numbers in all 5 categories.  On neutral field I would probably set them as a 2 point favorite so I think getting 4 points on the road gives us value.  USC behind better coaching should finally do something they couldn't do the last two years and that's beat UCLA. 

Washington -0.5 /Stanford 0.5 6pt teaser 4.4*

Washington is back home off a big loss with a fumble in the 4th quarter and they get to play an Oregon State team that is pretty happy with itself after facing Arizona State at home and crushing their dreams at a spot in the top 4 in the college playoff.  A hangover going on the road is inevitable here for Oregon State who has a shaky offensive line and has been unable to protect their senior QB Sean Mannion.  NT Danny Shelton is one of the best in the nation and DE Andrew Hudson is no slouch as they are 16th in sack % and should dominate this game at the point of attack.  Oregon State is only converting 25% of their third downs in conference play.

Stanford beat Cal by 50 points last year.  Their offense has been shaky all year and this spread deserves to be where it is, but Stanford's offense should finally get going here against Cal, a team that is 110th in yards per play on defense.  Everyone is up on this Cal team and they covered the spread with luck last week against USC.  Stanford meanwhile has looked awful, but I see them turning it up here.  They put up 30+ points in big wins in each of their match ups against teams ranked worse than 100 in the nation in yards/play allowed.  Cal's offense has looked great, but they have been shut down when they have played good defenses and Stanford still has that going for them ranked 3rd in yards allowed.

Raiders +7.5 4.4* NFL POD; Raiders +295 1* play

This is a perfect let down spot for a Chiefs team that has been playing over their head.  Why can't the Raiders break their losing streak? The Chiefs have been outgained in 3 games in a row yet they are 3-0.  Besides this is a division game and the Raiders should be up for this.. It's almost their Super Bowl in a way and the Chiefs come off a very very big win against Seattle and have to go on the road before getting Denver at home the following week.  Off a big win with a big game on deck facing an 0-10 team on the road.  It's hard for any team to not look past the Raiders right now.  The Raiders only lost 24-30 in Seattle and I think their offense has more potential than Kansas City. 

K State +3 -115 5* NCAAF POD

Since West Virginia has joined the Big 12, November has not been a good month with Dana Holgorsen going 2-8.  Kansas State and Bill Snyder hold a significant advantage in coaching and the fact that both teams have 11 days to prepare gives me a strong lean towards Bill Snyder and Kansas State coming off a big loss.  This is a perfect opportunity and I really like what the captains have been saying in the media about their opportunity to get over that loss to TCU.  Kansas State is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following a SU loss of 20+ points, and they are 15-3 ATS (83% ANGLE!!) in their last 18 following a SU loss all together.  Here is the coaching mismatch though... Dana Holgorsen since joining the Big12 with West Virginia is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS with extra preparation.  He clearly does not know how to get his players prepared for games with extra rest.  His only 2 wins were when they were 4 TD+ favorites and he's had numerous fails as a home favorite.  Bill Snyder on the other hand is 7-1 SU & ATS during that same time period with his only loss vs. a nasty and athletic Oregon team in a bowl game.

Extra preparation and trends are not enough to just write in a W for the Wildcats so I took it deeper.  Both teams have won when they can run the ball and stop the run.  Both have had success stopping the run in conference play when they have faced vanilla rushing offenses, but have struggled vs. teams with a running QB.  Kansas State has the running QB in Waters and the blocking to go with it while West Virginia does not.  West Virginia is giving up 4.72 ypc on the year in conference play.  Meanwhile Kansas State has really only struggled in run defense twice.  Against Oklahoma and TCU which feature more dynamic rushing offenses than West Virginia.  Similarly their rushing offense has only been stopped 3 times.  All 3 of those oppoennts ranked inside the top 50 in stopping the run (Auburn, Texas, and TCU), while West Virginia ranks 97th.  They've given up 5.90 yards per carry in losses and 3.70 in wins.

I took it a step further and looked at Trickett and Waters both veteran QB's at this stage in their career.  Trickett's numbers look a bit better because of hte offense he's in but Waters has better numbers in conference play with a 152QB rating while Trickett has 135 passing for just 11 TD's and 7 INT's.  He'll have issues against Kansas State too because they have allowed just 8 TD passes to 9 INT's in conference play.  West Virginia's pass defense is very very good, but that's not at all how Kansas State tries to win.  Kansas State will rely on their unique rushing offense with a few passes sprinkled in and they have the talent at receiver in Sexton and Lockett to give the Mountaineers issues.

Stats do not lie at this point in the season and it's clear Kansas State is the better team coming into a better situation.  Their 3rd down offense in conference play is considerably better, but their red zone offense and defense is what makes me super confident in this play.  In the red zone over 6 conference games, Kansas State has 27 attempts converting 74% into TD's while on defense they have allowed 18 att and 55% TD's.  Compared with West Virginia who has 21 attempts over 7 games in the red zone converting just 57% and allowing 70% TD's over 20 attempts.  Red zone is where these tight battles are won and I give a significant advantage to Kansas State who knows how to get the most out of their opportunities.  

[b]Seahawks +1.5 5.5* NFL POD[/b]

The Seahawks are a dog on the road to the Chiefs?  They have no business being a dog here considering the Chiefs have been really lucky of late.  Last week the Bills fumbled 3 times including once in the end zone and their head coach passed up field goals that would have given them the win over the Chiefs.  The same thing the week before as the Jets outgained them by nearly 100 yards.  Yes, the Jets out gained them and now they are favored against a team that is in the top 10 in yards/play in offense and defense.

The Broncos are the only opponent in the top 14 in yards/play offense that this Chiefs team has played and they lost.  The Seahawks will win this game and look forward to their next game against the Cardinals to reclaim the division.

[b] Packers +1/Saints -1 4.4* 6 point teaser[/b]

The Saints suffered a rare loss at home to the 49ers under Sean Payton that just does not happen. They had won 20 straight prior to that and are a ridiculous 19-2-1 ATS in their last 22 games.  Now the Saints get the Bengals angry after losing at home and getting embarrassed on Thursday night, but the Saints are in a thick division hunt and I doubt they care about that.  I look for the Saints to win this game, but 7 points is a lot and it’s mainly due to the fact that the Bengals looked awful vs. the Browns.  The reality is the Bengals are not that bad, but I don’t see them winning this game. I’ll take the Saints in a teaser with….

The Packers.  The Packers have been almost unbeatable at home.  Aaron Rodgers is just too good and he’s beaten good QB after good QB.  He has yet to throw an interception at home and the Eagles are coming in high off their win with their new QB Mark Sanchez, but now Sanchez has to win on the road against a very good team.  I have trust in Sanchez in this system, but he’s got to put up 30+ points here and I don’t see it happening not the way the Packers have played at home.

Arkansas pk 5.5* SEC GOY

Arkansas has not won an SEC game since early 2012 against Kentucky.  It has not really been their fault this year considering their 5 opponents are Auburn, A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Miss State.  Arkansas played MIss State and Alabama in similar fashion to what LSU did.  Actually they played better than LSU did against Miss State.  I just think this is the perfect spot for Arkansas to finally get their first SEC win.  They come off a bye, and LSU comes off a very physical game at home that went to OT against their biggest rival in Alabama.  This is a hang over spot for LSU or they will just be more banged up than a fresh Arkansas team that is hungry to finally win a conference game and get back into the possibility of going to a bowl game.

This LSU team is built on the running game much like Arkansas so I took a look at what each team did in conference play and at home and away and Arkansas comes back with more balance and the better run defense.  If LSU was capable of passing the ball this could be a different story, but Anthony Jennings has a 120 QB rating and is completing less than 50% of his passes.  Jennings shocked Arkansas last year at home with a 49 yard TD pass with 1:15 to play to capture a 31-27 victory over Arkansas.  Arkansas has been close to an SEC win numerous times and now they get a true home game.  LSU is making just its 3rd true road game and the numbers aren't good.

LSU rushing offense in conference games is averaging 4.14 ypc and they are backed by a very good and veteran offensive line, but on the road just 3.45 yards per carry.  LSU comes to the line and makes a lot of checks which is a big reason why they will struggle on the road.  They also are not blessed with a balanced attack so the defense knows what is coming.  Arkansas ont he other hand has Brandon Allen who is more efficient and complete nearly 60% of his passes 15 TD and 5 INT.  He's got a next level TE in Hunter Henry making plays each and every game.  Arkansas rushing offense has been slightly better in conference play 4.29 ypc, but 5.77 at home.

LSU's rushing defense has been hit or miss 4.71 ypc in conference play they allowed 150 more yards against Miss State than Arkansas did.  Arkansas has played well against physical running teams holding both Miss State and Alabama in check.  Their defense has allowed 4.64 ypc in conference play (less than LSU) and 3.25 at home.  Arkansas also finally faces an SEC team that can't pass the ball.  All 5 opponents had QB's with passer ratings above 150 which is just insane when you consider all 5 can also run the ball.  Arkansas should be able to play defense with the extra prep and do their thing on offense to dominate time of possession.  Their defense has held opponents to 30% conversions on third down at home while LSU has only converted 28% of theirs on the road.  In the end it will be Brandon Allen will be the reason why Arkansas comes away with a win on a very very cold night. 

[b]Cal +14.5 3.3* POD[/b]

The only teams USC has blown out this year have been Fresno, Oregon State, Colorado and Washington State.  All of those teams are unlikely to go bowling with a combined record of 13-25.  California is definitely experiencing a resurgence here this season and even their losses are not that bad.  The big losses against Washington and Oregon were due to fumble issues the offense had otherwise they played well with both but had nearly half their turnovers all year in that game.  Cal played right with UCLA and Arizona in 2 games decided by 6 points.  

USC has had issues stopping opponent passing games and Jared Goff should have another big day and improve on his 27 TD and 4 interceptions this year.  Goff is also doign it in the conference with 21 TD and 3 INT's.  He's played well on the road too and USC's pass rush has been non-existent ranking 89th in sack % and they are 100th in passing yards allowed.  USC also has some bigger games up next @UCLA and Notre Dame and could be looking ahead a bit.

[b]Bills +10.5 / Cincinnati +7.5 3.3* Teaser[/b] 

BILLS -1.5 5.5* NFL POD

Tampa Bucs +3 2.2*/

Cardinals -1/Packers -1.5 6pt tease 4.4* play

Michigan St -3 -120 5.5* POD

This is my play of the day.  A lot is on the line here for both teams and the Big Ten.  I think it could come down to a field goal for Michigan State who has shown issues late in games against Oregon and Nebraska.  However, I like their chances here at home.  Again similar to the LSU/Alabama match up both teams want to establish the run as they are both in the top 20 in rushing play % at over 60%.  Both teams are capable of stopping and running the ball which I will get to in a second.  Before looking at that you have to see if either team can have any sort of balance with their passing game to keep a defense honest and Michigan State has the better chance. 

Connor Cook and the offensive line is very much under rated.  He's got a 163 QB rating and does not make mistakes.  The offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and he's only been sacked 1.1% of his drop backs at home.  Ohio State can't claim the same ranking 84th in pass protection, but allowing a whopping 12.12% sacked % on the road which should have MIchigan State's defense licking their chops as they rank 8th in pass rush.  Now JT Barret has looked great this season, but against who?  The two decent defenses he's faced he's struggled with 2 TD passes and 5 INT's and the offense put up 17 pts and 21 pts in regulation against Penn State and VA Tech.  The loss to VA TEch looks worse and worse considering how they have played since and that defense is not stopping the run any more.

Speaking of the run.. On paper Ohio State is ranked 18th in run defense and Michigan State is ranked 30th, but the Spartans have faced 6 teams in the top 60, 4 of which are in the top 25.  Ohio State meanwhile just 2 in the top 75.  So the numbers are way off and Ohio State's home/away splits are about 1 yard worse on both sides.  Michigan State's rushing game is also better ranking 18th at 5.5 yards per carry and have faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 rushing defense.  For Ohio State they rank 23rd, but only 1 opponent in the top 60 in rushing defense which was Penn State.  Ohio State managed just 293 yards in 2 OT's vs. the Nittany Lions.  The other opponents are an average 94th vs. the run.  

Not to be taken for granted is the fact that Mich State has an extra week to prepare and were 3-0 in that scenario last year.  They also have arguably the nation's best punter in Mike Sadler. 

JAZZ +3 4.4* NBA POD

[b]Bengals -6 4.4* NFL POD[/b]

I'll go with the home team here on the short week.  The Browns are not a good football team despite their record and they are getting more credit than they deserve.  The Browns are 5-3, but their last 4 wins came against the Titans (big come back), Oakland, Tampa Bay, and PIttsburgh (who was playing their 4th road game 5 weeks).  The other 3 are a combined 3-21 and they lost to the Jaguars 24-6 in between.  They were very lucky to even get by the Titans at the time when Jake Locker got injured before the half when they were trailing by 25 points to the Titans.  This is not a team of destiny and they are going to fade fast especially without Alex Mack.  Without Mack the rushing offense went form averaging 154 to 54.

On the other side the Bengals who opened the year as everyone's dark horse to challenge the Broncos for the AFC Championship are 5-2-1.  However, looka t who they have played, New England, Baltimore 2x, and the Colts.  Those are some of the best QB's in the league for you fantasy football fans out there.  Now the Bengals get to face the Browns unimpressive passing game and a rushing game that's not going anywhere especially on the road.   This is a very good home team and I see them dominating this game as they have to in order to keep their distance in a tight division.  

NY Jets +10 5.5* NFL POD & Game of the Month!

lock this in early as the line will surely go down.  I really like Mike Vick with a full week to prepare and play with this offense he really adds another dynamic that Geno Smith clearly did not.  Also as bad as the Jets looked they actually out gained the Bills on Sunday and doubled their # of first downs.  6 turnovers will get you beat no matter what.  At this point the Jets have to go back to the run and adding Mike Vick's versatile style to the mix can only help with a full week of reps with the first team.

For the Chiefs their offense is not explosive enough to take advantage of the Jets weaknesses which is in the pass defense.  The Jets are absolutely stout in the front 7 and have one of the best defensive lines in football.  The Chiefs will run first and pass second even with Andy Reid and their offensive line is 28th in pass protection and they are just 25th in passing yards per pass attempt.  When you look at the Jets secondary they have played 3 of the top 5 passing teams + Tom Brady.  Right now stock is as low as it's ever been for the Jets and I'll jump on them to cover this spread on the road.

San Jose State +6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Colorado State is looking like the real deal at 7-1 winning on the road against Boston College.  IN all three of their close games and losses have come against top 60 pass defenses.  Grayson leads Colorado State with a 165 QB rating in 4 conference games, but he’s not as good on the road (136).  They won by 3 vs. Utah State who has the 30th ranked pass defense, by 3 against BC who has the 57th, and they lost against Boise State by 13 who is ranked 47th.  Enter San Jose State who is ranked #1 in opponent QB rating, #1 in opponent yards/attempt, and #1 in opponent completion %.  They even held Auburn to 135 yards passing and they have allowed just 1 passing TD all year without any QB passing for more than 150 yards.

Part of their dominance is nobody tries to pass on them, but Colorado State is averaging less than 3 yards per carry in the running game and will have issues on the road against this team.  San Jose State would have a better record if it weren’t for their -7 TO margin in losses.  Good news for them Colorado State’s defense is below average and has only forced a total of 7 turnovers on the season.  A further look at common opponents and San Jose was +194 vs. Wyoming on the road, Col State was +104 at home.  As well as +190 vs. Nevada and while Colorado State was -12 on the road.  San Jose State has been a dog 2 of the last 3 years but have won all of these meetings.  Colorado State is a very good team, but San Jose State has already played Navy, Minnesota and Auburn so this is nothing new for them.

Royals -138 4* mlb pod

Saints -2.5 5.5* nfl play of the day

Virginia Tech +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I think the Hokies will cover and win this game outright.  The stock on the Hokies has plummeted, but they are still in the mix and could have won last week's game at Pittsburgh on the road without their top 3 running backs.  Now they are likely to have Marshawn Williams back against and easier defense to move the ball against and they get to face them at home.  Miami has already given up 300+ yards on the ground to two opponents this year which should allow Virginia Tech to put some points on the board. 

Virginia Tech's defense is the main reason why I'll take the Hokies.  Bud Foster's group is still at top 15 unit and can stop the pass and run.  Virginia Tech will look to stop the run first to create third and longs.  I think the Hurricanes will be out coached in this game by far.  Virginia Tech is actually better than their numbers say against the run when you throw in how hard Georgia Tech's triple option is to stop.  The last time Miami faced a defense this good they lost 13-31 to Louisville.  Miami QB Brad Kaaya has not played well on the road with 2 interceptions in each game all 3 losses.  Virginia Tech will get after him with the 3rd ranked pass rush while Miami is a suspect 67th in protecting the QB.  What makes matters worse is they are actually converting on just 24.6% of their third downs and that's where Virginia Tech is set up well to win this game.

Miami is converting just 21% of third downs on the road and 24% overall compared with Virginia Tech's 44.5% and 50.7% at home and 26% on defense.  Miami is going to have issues converting there is no doubt about it while Virginia Tech should have more success.  Almost every offense that Miami's defense faced converted at a higher % on third down with exception of Duke where Miami was at home.  Even against Georgia Tech who was converting 59% on the season.  The same is true for the offense they converted at just 26% against their last two opponents who were allowing 50% to their opponents.  Now going against arguably the best defense they have faced.  The same issues are true in the red zone as they have converted just 53% TD's and have allowed 83% on the road.  Virginia Tech also struggles in the red zone but their defense has allowed 43%.

The big play... Bud Foster will have things solved and the defense should not give up any big plays here tonight at home with the blitzes and the front 7 getting to the QB just a bit faster at home.  Pitt beat this team with their QB taking off and that's not something Miami's QB can do at all. 

Giants +100 4* MLB POD

Saints +115 5.5* NFL POD

If you are going to win on the road in the NFL you better be able to protect your QB and run the ball.  A quick look and we know how dominating the Lions have been up front as they are leading the league in sack %, but a quick look reveals they have yet to face an offensive line in the top 15 of the league.  The Saints are 3rd in protecting their QB and they do a good job in run blocking to as the Saints are 2nd averaging 5.2 ypc.  Here is a look at the pass protection units the Lions have faced this year... 31st, 18th, 22nd, 25th, 16th, and 23rd.   They lost to both the 18th and 16th pass protection units and I think the Saints are desperate for a win.

The Saints off a bye and they will come into this game a little healthier and ready to turn their season around.  This team has always been a bad road team, but I'm just not that impressed with the Lions this year and this is a tough spot for them playing the Saints who are 2nd in 3rd down conversions to go along with their offensive line play against the pass and run.  Detroit is also without Calvin Johnson most likely which is definitely worth a few points.  I still think Mathew Stafford is one of the more over rated QB's blessed by having a freak of nature at WR for his career.  On the flip side Detroit is 30th in protecting Stafford and 31st with just 3.2 ypc.  IF there was ever an opportunity for the Saints to turn it around on defense this is the game.  

Arkansas +4 5.5* NCAAF POD

Arkansas is a desperate team here looking for a win in the SEC for the first time in 16 games.  They keep inching closer and closer and really out played Alabama at home last week, but an extra point miss kept them from winning this game or forcing OT.  Georgia meanwhile went on the road and flat out dominated Missouri 34-0, but they were not as good as that score indicates while Missouri turned the ball over 5 times.  MIssouri's defense was on the field for 42 minutes, yet they still held Georgia under 400 yards and Georgia never had an offensive play over 18 yards.  Meanwhile Arkansas under rated defense just got done holding Alabama to 227 yards.

Georgia's defense has been the story along with the running game, but when you look at it Georgia's defense has faced all of the weak teams in the SEC when it comes to offense.  They've faced only 1 team all year ranked in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they lost on the road to them 38-35 to South Carolina, a team that is not as good as Arkansas.  The other teams ranked 89th, 113th, 116th, 98th, and 97th in yards per play offense so I'm thinking this Georgia defense is not as good as they looked last week they almost certainly can not expect Arkansas to turnt he ball over 5 times.  Arkansas arguably is the first balanced offense that Georgia has faced all year.  Yes, Arkansas will run the ball 62% of the time and try to shorten the game, but Brandon Allen is healthy and has 10 TD and just 2 interceptions and they utilize their TE's who very hard to guard very well.  IF Georgia's schedule was based off last year's team then we'd be telling a different story, but all three big games - Clemson, MIssouri, and South Carolina look like completely different teams.

The SEC West is undefeated against the SEC East.  Arkansas defense that has struggled has faced 5 top 60 offenses and 4 in the top 30, 3 int he top 15.  Now Georgia is a one dimensional offense and Arkansas just got done shutting down Alabama's running game.  Todd Gurley is looking like he'll play and that has pushed this line up to +4 in some places and I couldn't help but jump on it as I think Arkansas is poised to win this game outright.  Georgia isn't as good and Arkansas continues to be under rated.  Look for the running game to keep it going while they convert third downs and keep the chains moving while Korliss Marshall makes plays in special teams to set up their first win in their last 16 tries in the SEC.

Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I have been all over this Utah team for years and I know them and their coaching staff very well.  So far this season I have predicted in my analysis Utah +405 ML at UCLA 2 weeks ago and I also predicted Washington State +425 at Utah for the win.  Utah is now ranked inside the top 25 and I won't play them as a road favorite.  As good as they are on defense they are a flawed team.  How many #1 pass rush teams who are #1 in sack % and #1 in sacks are giving up 43% conversions on third down?  Utah's front 7 is built on stopping the run and forcing teams into third and long and they've done a good job this year.  They have only faced one team ranked inside the top 87 in pass protection and that was Washington State who beat them in their own building.

Oregon State is just a bit more balanced than Washington State, but they have a veteran QB built on pass first mentality with very capable running backs averaging over 5 yards per carry.  Utah's defense is going to be tired by the end of this game and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon State take this game outright.  Their offensive line is still missing their best player, but this team has been tested facing 3 teams inside the top 60 in pass rush.  USC was ranked 94th but we all know they are better than that.  Oregon State lost by 25 at USC, but that was on the road and without their top WR target who will be back today for QB Sean Mannion.  Oregon State's defense has just as many strengths as Utah and Utah's offense is 95th in yards per play on offense.  They are not announcing their starting QB, but Oregon State has a defense that can plan for both led by 3 senior linebackers in the middle.

Royals +105 4* MLB POD[/b]

I trust the Royals pitching at home.  Wei Yen Chen looked like crap down the stretch for the third year in a row and in my opinion he's not used to throwing over 200+ innings which has caused ERA's over 5 in September in his career.  The Royals will go with Jeremy Guthrie who has a very high pitching IQ and is used to throwing a lot of innings and can come up with the occasional gem.  He's pitched to the ground ball and the Orioles will have issues hitting it out of this ball park.  Teams that rely heavily on the HR in the playoffs typically struggle and the Royals arguably have one of the best bullpens in baseball backing Guthrie up.  I expect the Royals to do all they can to get the 3-0 lead on the Orioles tonight. 

UL-Lafayette +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I'll take the Rajin Cajuns here as our POD catching 3 points on the road.  First of all I think this team is better prepared for this game they got essentially a bye after their game against Boise STate as they had to play GA STate as a 17 point favorite at home and nearly lost, but again this is the same team that at home against LA Tech was a 16 point favorite and lose by 28.  Public is down on them and so is Vegas yet they still have 18 returning starters compared with Texas State's 12 (4 on defense) and Texas State lost 24-48 and were outgained by nearly 400 yards in that game.  I will take the dog in that scenario especially when you look at the fact that Lafayette has played Boise and Ole MIss while Texas State has the weakest strength of schedule in the country.

Texas State has played nobody in the top 90 in rushing offense or defense so their numbers look pretty good on offense with a 5.60 ypc and a QB rating over 150, but a lot of the rushing yardage came against Idaho who is ranked 124th vs. the run.  Texas State has only faced 2 teams who have a top 50 ranked rushing or passing offense (Illinois and Navy) and lost to both.  At lease UL Lafayette can run the ball and even did so against Ole Miss.  Terrance Broadway has had a terrible start, but he tossed 4 TD 0 INT in this match up last year and should have plenty of confidence coming into this game.  At the end of the day I just think the wrong team is favored based on public perception. 

Falcons -3 5.5* MAX NFL POD

Listen both of these teams were supposed to have a better record at this point in the season, but they don't.  Bottom line is the Falcons are home and their home field advantage is probably worth more than 3 points.  Falcons are averaging over 500 yards at home while the Bears are averaging less than 300 on the road and though it has a lot to do with the competition both faced I think in the end it will be the Falcons that have more capability to move the ball with a balanced offense.  Atlanta is capable of moving the ball via Matt Ryan but this team is also running the ball well in the top 10 in yards per rush.  That's a big issue for this Bears defense that is not your Father's Bears defense.  The Bears have shown that a good running game and a good passing game can beat them.  Chicago is ranked 21st vs. the run and 25th in yards per pass attempt.  Atlanta #3 in the red zone in TD% and #1 in yards/play.  Falcons major advantage at home and need this game.

USC -2.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Arizona is a top 15 team nationally and undefeated off a big win at Oregon as a 3+ TD favorite.  Now they go back home and they are under dogs against a team with 2 losses?  Well that's because USC is just a better team and I expect them to win and cover in this game.  Arizona beat Oregon last year as a +20.5 favorite and proceeded to lose the next week 21-58.  Oregon is not the top tier team we thought they were and haven't been the same since Chip Kelly went to the NFL.

First of all Arizona off this big win is due for a hang over or a let down whatever you want to call it.  Their offense is led by two freshmen and in QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson who probably think college football and winning is easy.  I think they are in for a rude awakening against a pissed off USC team that played well but lost on a hail mary at home.  When you look at Arizona's results and schedule they haven't faced a top defense especially in pass defense.  USC is 32nd in opponent QB rating, but Arizona has faced 86th, 109th, 55th, 100th, and 93rd so I'm not surprised Solomon has enjoyed so much success.  USC is also tough against the run despite their rank.  Boston College ran all over them and I'm going to throw that game out when you consider they just got done holding their last two opponents well under their season averages including Arizona State who is still ranked 13th in ypc despite rushing for under 2 yards per carry vs. USC's defense.

Arizona will have a tough time with Cody Kessler who is completing 69.5% of his pass without any interceptions.  He also has Javorious Allen who is averaging over 5 yards per carry and rushed for over 150 vs. a pretty good Stanford defense.  Arizona's pass defense is not good allowing a 151 QB rating and they have given up a higher QB rating to all 4 of their 5 opponents.  Oregon had a 170 QB rating but on the season average over 190.  Overall I just think USC is too good in their pass defense and they seemed to fix the issues in their run defense and we get them at a true bargain.  Before last week this spread probably would have been 5.5 or 6 point favorites.  USC has allowed just 25% conversions on third down and 46% TD's in the red zone and are +7 in turnover margin with 0 turnovers in their last 4 games.  Arizona is just not a good red zone team right now 52% TD percentage on offense and 67% on defense.  

WASHINGTON ST +17 4.4* NCAAF POD

BYU/UCF U45 4.4* NCAAF POD I don't see any value here on the home team despite covering on them last week as one of my POD's against Houston. Their offense looked awful and they are still ranked 119th in yards per play on the season. BYU has a solid defense ranked 36th in yards per play and they will rely heavily on their defense to carry them here since they are now without their star QB. If anything there is a ton of value on BYU here after they lost as a -21 favorite and lost their star QB Taysome Hill.. I can't back a team though starting a new QB on the road on short rest against a UCF defense that will also be pretty geared up at home and is very talented. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 Thursday games, but I also like that both teams are top 40 in rushing play %. A lot of running and a lot of clock moving with both teams relying on their solid defense which gets better when opponents get into the red zone. Both teams have been very good on defense in the red zone with UCF allowing just 28% TD's in the red zone compared with BYU at 52%. I think this sets up nicely for the under as we see a totally different BYU offense.

Titans -1 5.5* NFL POD

This won't be the most exciting game I give you that, but I like the Titans to get back on track and win at home.  They get Jake Locker back who is still an upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst.  The Titans have had a tough schedule to start facing 4 playoff teams in my opinion.  They won at KC who looked great at home vs. the Patriots on Monday, they lost to Dallas who arguably has the best offensive line in the league, at Indy to a very good team, and at the Bengals to a team that has many picking them as the team that can beat Peyton Manning.  Not a lot of cupcakes on the schedule there, but facing the Browns this week and Jaguars next week their is potential for the Titans to be sitting at 3-3. 

The Browns are ranked 27th vs. the pass and 29th vs. the run and 31st in yards allowed per play.  Titans should be able to move the ball and even though the Browns are off a bye it won't matter.  Titans are actually 1-3 because they have turned the ball over and can not convert on third downs.  They have faced 3 of the top 10 3rd down defenses, but today they face the Browns defense allowing 38.5 yards per drive (ranked 28th in the league).  Cleveland is also 18th in the league in forced turnovers.  

UTAH +13.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD + UTAH +405 1* ML

UCLA got a huge win on national television to stay undefeated, but they actually looked like everyone thought they would all seasonw inning 62-27 and suddenly they are ranked #8 in the country.  I'm still not buying this team at all.  I was all over Arizona State last week because I thought they had more talent on defense and I was completely wrong this team is 113th in yards / play allowed and 70th in sack %.  UCLA struggled in all 3 of their other games because Memphis, Virginia, and Texas are all in the top 25 in sack %.  Well that plays right into Utah's hands as they are ranked 5th in sacks and 18th in sack %.  Better yet they get to the QB with their front 4 and don't need to blitz as the defensive line has 15 of the 18 sacks.

What I like about Utah is the fact that they lost at home as a double digit favorite while UCLA exploded on national TV so no doubt we have value on this line.  Washington State went into Utah as 13 point favorite and won which I predicted and cashed on at +425.  I'm predicting the same thing here. The match up against Wash State was just a bad bad match up for Utah whose defense is built to stop the run and get a pass rush, but Wash State relies on quick passes so a pass rush is almost nearly impossible.  UCLA is ranked 109th in protecting the QB and it's been their kryptonite all year long. I don't expect that to change in one week after one game.  UTah's Nate Orchad has proven he's a dominant pass rusher and should be giving Brent Hundley plenty of pressure.

Utah gave UCLA all they could handle at home last year, but Tyler Wilson turned the ball over 6 times.  It it wasn't for that this team would have beaten UCLA and Stanford at home.  One year later this team is deeper and better and Tyler Wilson has yet to throw an interception and the team is +5 in turnover margin.  Dres Anderson is a real threat at WR and Utah has balance with Devontae Booker carrying the ball.  Special teams has also been great with Kaelin Clay the fastest player on the field already taking back 4 TD's in punt and kick off returns and should be a huge factor on Saturday night, but Utah's solid front 7 on defense against UCLA's struggling offensive line should be the story here and the reason why we cash our ticket.

[b]Cardinals +157 4* MLB POD[/b]

This is a fragile Dodgers team and now that they lost in the fashion that they did with their ace on the mound I don't think they can recover.  Their is no glue in the club house and those type of teams just don't go on to win the World Series I don't care how talented you are.  Lance Lynn has enjoyed a great season particularly in road starts with an ERA under 2.50.  This line offers us plenty of value and the Cardinals are no strangers to the post season.  

Syracuse +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

This is a dangerous game for Louisville and I'm not so sure they can win or even should be favored so I'll take the FG with the home dog in the Carrier Dome where they are extremely dangerous.  This year has been odd for Louisville in a bad way as their defense was supposed to struggle while the offense was great under Bobby Petrino, but it's been opposite and a lot has to do with the offenses they have faced in my opinion.  Louisville is in fact ranked #2 in run defense, but they have not faced a top 60 unit and have faced an FCS school + 128th ranked run offense and 112th.  No doubt those numbers are a bit skewed.  Here comes Syracuse ranked #10 with multiple options in their running game including an elite running QB in Terrel Hunt.  Hunt has struggled to pass, but back at home against an over rated Louisville defense should change.  Syracuses losses have been against some very good teams in Notre Dame and Maryland, who is shocking many people already.  

Syracuse defense also has the edge here in my opinion.  Louisville is very uncertain at QB and they face Syracuse's 17th ranked run defense, but that's not what will get them the win.  Their front 7 is aggressive as any and they'll get to the QB particularly at home.  They forced Notre Dame into 5 turnovers last week on a neutral field and this week their 22nd ranked sack % team gets to face Louisville who is having all sorts of issues in the pocket ranking 118th in pass protection.  To make matters worse for Louisvlle Syracuse has bene dominant in the red zone allowing just 38% TD's.  While Lousivlle has also gotten to the QB it's been against some poor protection units and Syracuse is ranked 3rd in sacks allowed which is extremely impressive when you figure they have a mobile QB. 

Orioles -105 4.5* MLB POD

Detroit is not made for this right now and Baltimore just has too good of an overall team.  The Tigers turn to Justin Verlander and the name is big which is giving us value on the Orioles, but Verlander has not been himself all year with a 4.54 ERA.  If you take the name away and see the odds and you see the bullpen advantage that the Orioles have and they are home you'd be all over this line.  However, the fact that Verlander is a power arm it's moving money towards Detroit.  I'm just not buying it right now. 

Wei Yen Chen had an average first half, but he seemed to get stronger as the year went on.  He's a better overall option than Justin Verlander here.  He posts a 3.54 ERA on the year 2.76 since the All Star break over 13 starts and the Tigers never got to face him. Chen won't have to go very deep into this game all the manager is asking for him is to get to 5 innings and they hand it over to one of the deepest bullpens in baseball, Detroit has a 4.29 ERA ranked 27th, but a 6.84 ERA over their last 10 games compared to the Orioles who have a 2.12 ERA.  It's also worth mentioning that the Tigers over their last 10 games have struggled vs. LHP which they'll face today, hitting .179 and scoring 0.82 runs per 9. 

UCF +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

I don't know who drove this line up to 3.5 points, but I'm thanking them for it.  Essentially both teams come off a bye week here and should be fresh for their conference game.  Although UCF may have a bit more time to prepare here considering they had Bethune Cookman on 9/20.  Either way I expect a competitive game between two teams who are solid on defense and struggling to find an identity on offense, but I think UCF is still the better team with the better coach.  UCF is ranked higher in our power rankings 77th to 84th, and strength of schedule 32nd vs. 71st.

Houston's wins have come when they can run the ball and despite only doing that roughly 38% of the time.  However, they ran the ball against two poor teams in Grambling and UNLV.  Against BYU and UTSA they ran for a combined -17 yards.  UCF is giving up 2.9 ypc and they have played big opponents like Missouri and Penn State.  They have an excellent group of linebackers led by Terrance Plummer who has been in the media this week responding to Houston's WR's comments.  Plummer is a great leader who plays with emotion and passion and that's the type of team I like to back as an under dog.  Houston's WR Deontay Greenberry is a good player, but he made a dumb comment stating "they weren't that good last year....don't expect a close game this year."  I have no idea why he feels that way when you consider how Houston has played this year against competitive opponents, but UCF HC George O'Leary state "one of my players said that he'd be watching the game on TV."  It just goes to show you where both teams are.  UCF is clearly more mature and has a better coach and the stats back it up.

Houston passes 61.5% of hte time and they are not very good at ranked 114th in pass efficiency.  We broke down the struggles with the running game so for me the game for Houston relies on O'Korn.  He was supposed to make a big step forward in his second year and he hasn't completing just 52% of his passes while throwing 6 interceptions and 6 TD's.  I don't see that changing here against UCF which has a seasoned secondary.  Missouri's Matty Mauk only had 144 yards passing on them on 14/24 and he had the running game working to create balance.  Don't expect O'Korn to have the same advantages here tonight.

Central Florida's defense will keep them in the game while the offense I think will gain it's confidence for the first time this season against a decent opponent.  UCF is ranked nearly dead last in ypc but they have faced some very good defenses including Penn State ranked 3rd v.s the run.  Houston's defense just gave up 5 rushing TD's and 500 yards in their last 2 games combined against BYU and UNLV.  I can see BYU rushing well, but UNLV is ranked 90th in yards per rush and they put up 4.36 average and 170 yards.  UCF has the threat of their QB taking off and I think he will take a few plays out of BYU's play book for some key first downs. 

I would feel comfortable taking UCF on the money line if you have to.. This team could easily be 2-1, but their defense has struggled on third down defense, but playing Houston should help as they have only been able to convert 33% of their third downs and we mentioned all the struggles they have had running and throwing the ball. 

[b]Royals +101 4.5* MLB POD[/b]

I will take the home team all day long despite Jon Lester being on the mound with a ton of post season experience.  The A's offense really struggled down the stretch and they were not very good on the road in the second half of the season.  Really since they made the trade for Lester this offense has sputtered without Cespedes in the middle of the line up and I don't see it changing here against James Shields.  

Shields was dominant down the stretch 34:5 K:BB ratio over his last 6 starts alone and the Athletics line up has a .215 average with an OPS

Patriots -3 +115 4* NFL POD

There is tremendous value right now on the Patriots.  They have not looked good on offense and the defense has carried them through their two wins on the season.  Their defense is definitely improved and go up against a Chiefs team that is particularly weak.  The start of the season has definitely changed a lot of the public's perception on the Patriots, but this team will be just fine and in the mix to go to the Super Bowl again by the end of the season.  The offensive line is having growing pains, but I think we see an improvement this week and the offense will surely benefit.  Most of the public is thinking about the fact that the Chiefs went to Miami and dominated 34-15 while the Patriots lost 20-33.  I'm not.. This team always gets up for Monday night covering 9 of their last 13.

I also like the Patriots for the unfortunate fact that the Chiefs are down a lot of starters already early in the season.  They are without 2 opening day starters on offense and have replaced those guys with two rookies and on defense they are without 4 starters from their opening day roster as well.  Bottom line this Patriots offense has nowhere to go but up and with Brady in the mix that's going to happen sooner rather than later.  What better time than on Monday night with many doubting the 2014 Patriots.  Their defense has been elite allowing 272 yards per game which is good for 2nd in the league.  KC's defensive unit is ranked 16th.  New England is #1 from a yards/play perspective while KC is 19th.  On offense KC is ranked 29th in yards per play while the Patriots are ranked 32nd.. Again not going to last with Brady.  I expect the offensive line issues to be a thing of the past and we will see a different game plan here tonight. 

TB Bucs +9 5.5* MAX NFL POD
Am I crazy after the Bucs lost 14-56 in embarrassing fashion against the Atlanta Falcons? Maybe I am, but when you parlay that with the fact that the Steelers dominated the Panthers on the road and I think we get tremendous value. Oddsmakers know they can get away with a high spread here, but in my opinion Tampa is not as bad as they looked (5 turnovers had a lot to do with it), and the Steelers are not as good as they looked.

For one the Steelers have some major issues on defense with the loss of 3 top defenders. They are so thin on defense they brought James Harrisson back. Talk about being desperate. Tampa will likely start MIke Glennon here and that makes me more confident going into this match up when you look at what Pittsburgh has struggled with which is defending the run. The Steelers uncharacteristically are allowing 5+ yards per carry while the Bucs average about that. Plenty of value here on the Bucs who should be able to move the chains with their passing game now that the Steelers are without Ike Taylor and the running game with Bobby Rainey and Doug Martin.

SYRACUSE +10 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Notre Dame is once again getting media attention which is nothing new for this program but ranked number eight in the country is a bit overboard. Nearly 65% of the public is backing Notre Dame here will play on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium. Both teams have experience playing in this stadium in the pinstripe bowl.

I like Syracuse a lot here as they just come off a loss against Maryland which gives us a little bit of value in the line. The loss against Maryland was also misleading and lost by 14 but pay average 7.3 yards per carry and outgained Maryland by 220 yards. This offense is very good and can expose Notre Dame as the Irish have yet to face a truly mobile quarterback. Terrel Hunt fits the part for Syracuse and he has a running back and Gulley who is averaging 7.84 yards per carry.  They are both playing behind in offense of wine that is extremely experienced with five seniors.

Notre Dame has looked great but against who?  We all saw how Michigan looked at home against Utah as favorites. That makes Notre Dame's victory against them a little less impressive. This is also Notre Dame's first game away from home and while their run defense has allowed less than 3 yards per carry to have not faced a running game like this. Notre Dame's offense is also misleading in my opinion because they lack multiple go to guys can easily put together a game plan to keep this offense in check. It's also a bad sign when your head coach is looking to shake up the offense of line during your bye week. Which is exactly what Brian Kelly has been doing and that offense of line will be in for a tough test against Syracuse which is very good at stopping the run.