Cappers Sports Picks

Coastal Carolina +6 4.4% NCAAF POD

Eastern MIchigan has just 10 returning starters as they head out on the road as the MAC faces off against the Sun Belt.  The Sun Belt has gone 12-9 against the MAC, but the battles have been pretty even. I have tremendous respect for Chis Creighton and what he’s achieved here at Eastern Michigan, but with 10 returning starters I have questions.  This team has played in a lot of close games, and has relied on the defense on the road, but I’m predicting they take a step back, and they have a tough task against Coastal Carolina.

Coastal returns 15 starters, and has more depth than last year and 5 of their 9 losses were by 8 points or less. When depth was less of an issue Coastal defeated UAB 47-24 at home in week 2, and UAB went on to go 11-3.  I think Coastal has a shot to pull the upset here. The offense should improve and was better than their final numbers, and the defense returns 8 starters. They just missed out on a bowl game last year and improve from #111 in experience to #51.  Playing a lot of young guys last year will pay dividends this year.

UCLA +3 4.4% NCAAF POD

3’s popped up again at a few locations, and I’m going to grab the Bruins here.  These two opened up the 2018 season @ UCLA, and the Bruins had hype with Chip Kelly taking over, and were 14 point favorites, and lost outright.  I see a bit of revenge here for UCLA, and I don’t really think that there is an 11 point difference between these two teams from last year. UCLA was breaking in an entirely new system, and they lost their QB halfway through the game.  This season they return 19 starters, and are in Chip Kelly’s second year of the system, and we saw improvements down the stretch as the offense averaged 432 yards per game over their last 8 compared to 312 over the first 4. They also faced a top 10 strength of schedule. Power 5 head coaches have done really well in their second year as a dog over the past 4 years 99-80 ATS, and I like the fact that UCLA is getting points here.  

Cincinnati had a great year last year and I have been extremely impressed with Luke Fickell taking Cinci to an 11-2 season a year ago.  They had one of the weaker schedules however, and when you compare against UCLA it is very obvious. Cincinnati's offense faced an average 75th ranked YPP defense, compared to UCLA’S 40TH opponent average.  Their defense faced an average 67th opponent YPP offense, and that is inflated by facing Central Florida. Compare that against UCLA opponent offense ranking 53rd. It’s also worth noting that Cinci has a much bigger game on deck at Ohio State. 

Patriots -132 5.5% NFL POD 

Patriots/Rams Under 56.5 5.5% POD

Saints -3 5.5% NFL POD

Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD

Cowboys +7 4.4% POD

Clemson +6 5.5% NCAAF POD 

I absolutely think Clemson has the ingredients to upset Alabama.  Alabama has shown some vulnerabilities in the last few games against worse teams.  Looking at Clemson’s body of work and statistical resume, they mostly mirror Georgia on offense, and Miss State on defense.  Georgia has a weakness in stopping the run, and Alabama exploited it as they rank 53rd while Clemson ranks #1. Miss State who held Alabama to 24 points in their own building has one weakness and that’s the QB play, and we already know that Trevor Lawrence is cool calm, and has an NFL arm.  He threw for 327 yards against Notre Dame, a team that ranked 4th vs. the pass. Alabama’s secondary is definitely vulnerable as they lost a ton of talent to the NFL last year. They really only played two offenses that could run and pass all year. That came against Georgia and Oklahoma who both put up big offensive numbers on them.  Oklahoma got behind 28-0, but out played Alabama in quarters 2, 3, and 4. Clemson also has an advantage as Alabama ranks 72nd in explosive defense. They rank 46th in explosive run defense specifically, so Clemson, a team that has talent at WR with Tee Higgins, a big body guy, Justyn Ross, the speedy guy, Amari Rodgers and Hunter Renfro the third down guys to go along with Travis Etienne at RB and QB Trevor Lawrence runs the RPO as good as anyone I have seen all year.

Alabama’s offense is their best that I can ever remember, but they face the best defense they have faced all year in this game.  The front 7 is the strength of Clemson, and at some point Tua is going to have to make plays in this game. I do think the weakness for Clemson is in pass defense, but it’s hard to even know that for sure as they also did not play in a lot of close games, but Jake Bentley, South Carolina put up 35 points and 510 yards passing including a couple of plays over 67 yards.  I think Tua will have a big play or two in this game so if you have a prop option to take him over 45 yards for longest pass I would take it. Clemson does have an explosive defense ranked 11t in allowing explosive plays, but I think their schedule has a lot to do with it. Clemson did not face a balanced offense all year until Notre Dame, but Notre Dame’s weakness offensively was running the ball ranking 45th.  Clemson has shut down the 3 top 20 rushing offenses they faced, but all 3 did not have any QB play with Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern, and Pitt combining for 38 total points. Again value for the over, because we have seen Clemson struggle against a team that can throw the ball.

Common opponents - Texas A&M, and Louisville.  You could argue Alabama played better against A&M, and Clemson played better against Louisville.  Clemson actually played better in the trenches on the road than Alabama did at home. Clemson +44 yards holding A&M to 71 yards rushing while Alabama -21 yards giving up 130 rushing yards.  Clemson also started Kelly Bryant at QB in that game, and it was their first road game against Jimbo Fisher who was very experienced in facing Clemson. Against Louisville, Alabama had an advantage of preparing for them all off season and they out gained them running the ball 222 to 16.  Clemson, outgained them on the ground 492 to 81 yards.

The key here is going to be pass rush for both teams.  Christina Miller is ? for Alabama with a hamstring and I have a hard time believing if he plays he will be effective, and will probably hurt it again.  Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence is suspended, but his spot is given up to Sr. Albert Huggins, a better pass rusher which I feel helps them more in this matchup.  I think Tua is going to make a mistake in this game. We saw Georgia really pressure Tua and their pass rush ranked 88th. I think DC Venables can take a lot from that matchup and Tua tends to rush some decisions and try to play hero which could lead to a turnover in this game.  Down the stretch Alabama was -3 in TO margin over their last 6 games while Clemson was +3 over their last 6 games.

Special Teams edge to Alabama, but their punter is not good, and Nick Saban does not really have a lot of confidence in his kicker.  Alabama has the potential to return a kick for a TD, as Clemson has given up 2 this season. I give Clemson the edge in the red zone as they have better #’s for TD % on both offense and defense with a total edge of 20% and their offense has only improved since Lawrence took over.  They also have been penalized fewer. Alabama was penalized 9 times in their game against Oklahoma which clearly cost them the cover.

Last but not least is coaching.  Obviously Nick Saban is going to get the edge over Dabo Swinney, but when Saban does not have extra time to prepare which he doesn’t here his defense has not played well against Clemson.  In the first National Championship Saban knew this and had to steal a possession by kicking an onside kick, and the next year Clemson won on the last play of the game 35-31. I think both of these offenses have been better than those two games.  Last year Clemson’s offense was completely one dimensional and they lost 24-6 with Saban having extra time to prepare. However, the assistants is the key here, and they have a HUGE advantage for Clemson. This is the 4th time in 4 years they are strategizing for this game.  Clemson has 2 co-OC’s who have been here since 2015 as Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott are having their best season. They will go up against an inexperienced Alabama DC in Tosh Lupoi, 2nd year, and Pete Golding 1st year. Alabama also has a first time offensive coordinator in MIke Locksley who also has already taken the Maryland job.  He’s done a great job, but he goes up against Brent Venable who has been with Clemson since 2012.

Chargers +3 4.4% NFL POD

Cowboys -125 5.5% NFL POD

Michigan State +1.5 5.5% POD

It has been a rough go of it with these max plays, and we got very unlikely in my opinion and should have covered with Alabama -14, and Iowa State +125, Iowa State covered on the spread not the ML.  Here we are again, and I am going to back the team with the better defense. 

There is value on Michigan State in my opinion.  The discussion will be how bad their offense has been, but they have had a ton of injuries, and coming into this game I would predict that they have some things figured out.  I expect they will get back to running the ball with LJ Scott expected to go along with QB Brian Lewerke.  Oregon's weakness is in run defense.  They ranked 48th in rushing yards per carry, but they faced a very easy schedule with an opponent ypc average of 83rd.  Compare that with MIchigan State's run defense which ranks 2nd facing an opponent ypc average of 49.16.  When held under 4 yards per carry, Oregon is only 1-4 this season with the only win coming against San Jose State.  Michigan State has only allowed 1 team over that mark, Penn State, a game they still won on the road.

Michigan State has faced 5 really good offenses, and they held up in each one against OHio State, Penn State, Purdue, Arizona State, and Nebraska allowing 16.2 ppg on average in those games.  There is no reason to believe they can't do the same here.  I think their offense is undervalued because of the injuries.  The extra time off allowed Michigan State to get healthier, but also work in some of the younger guys with confidence at the skill position.  Watch out for Darrell Stewart, who only had 368 yards receiving on the season to have a big day.  Also Mark D'antoio a far better coach than Cristobal.  He's 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl games over the past 6 years with their only loss to Alabama.  Oregon lost as a big favorite 28-38 to Boise a season ago.

Alabama -14 5.5% NCAAF POD

Alabama with extra preparation under Nick Saban has been a very profitable ATS situation.  I think Alabama's defense really plays a great game here and give Oklahoma and Kyler Murray issues all day.  I think there is something to be said about Oklahoma getting the Heisman Trophy award to Kyler Murray over Tua, and Oklahoma getting the Joe Moore award for the best offensive line.

The last two times Alabama was a double digit favorite in the playoff they won by 17 and 38 points.  Nick Saban is not going to keep his foot off the gas here knowing how dangerous the Oklahoma offense is.  There will be talks about Alabama's struggles against mobile QB's, but that is old news.  Alabama now prepares against 2 mobile QB's in practice with Jalen Hurts, and Tua, and this is extra time for Alabama to prepare for Murray.  Alabama certainly has the athletes to contain Murry on the outside, and I think the defense dominates this game while Alabama's offense may not punt in this game.

I think the -14 is giving us value here as Alabama did not play great down the stretch, but the time off gives them a chance to regroup offensively.

Iowa State +125 5.5% POD

Iowa State has played 4 similar offenses this year and have covered each of the 4 against Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.  Some would say they are built to beat this type of offense, and I would  agree.  They are well coached by Matt Campbell, and are from the much stronger conference.  The PAC 12 went 3-4 -12.4 points per game vs. non-conference P5 opponents while Big 12 was +2.98 points per game, and against G5 conferences the PAC 12 went 8-5 and 6-8 ATS while Big 12 went 10-0, and 7-2-1 ATS outscoring G5 opponents by more than 9 points per game compared to the PAC 12.

The motivation has to be on the side of Iowa State here, when you factor in Washington State felt like they should have been playing in one of the New Years Six Bowl games, and have been concentrating more on recruiting than bowl preparation.  Part of that is Mike Leach's system is much more simple to run, and does not demand extra preparation.  That only makes it easier for opponents to plan for it which is why he has been bad in bowl games 3-8 ATS over his career, and 1-7 ATS over the last 8.

Coaching advantage for this situation goes to Matt Campbell and Iowa State who is very excited to be here.  Campbell is one of the hottest coaches going 36-21-2 ATS over the last 5 years. He was smart enough to see the potential of the team in week 5 when he made a QB switch to Brock Purdy after they average just 17.5 points per game.  With Purdy over the last 8 games they averaged 31.5 points per game and +1.26 yards per play which is a huge #, which is the difference between Alabama's offense and Miami's offense.  I'm not worried about the spread here Iowa State wins outright. 

Duke +3.5 -105 4.5% NCAAF POD

There is a lot to unpack in this game, but I am going to start with bettin value.  Duke lost it's last two games by a combined score of 94-13.  They lost their last game by 30+ and Temple won their last game by 30+, Value on Duke here, who was really unhealthy down the stretch, and I think Daniel Jones their NFL caliber QB was hurt all season long, and the extra time to rest is certainly a good thing for this offense.  They have a key player on the defense in Giles-Harris who is questionable, but I'm betting he plays along with Humphreys who are two key players on the defense.  THey are NFL caliber LB's, and I'm not worried about them sitting out to protect their health for a possible NFL draft.  Humphrey's said - "I don't think that's a Duke thing," Humphreys said Tuesday. "We're going to play every game that we can. We're going to do it because we love the guys around us. I don't think that will happen at Duke."  The defense is healthier, they started the season allowing just 341 yards the first 7 games, and allowed 529 the last 5.  I think that changes here. 

Duke, and coach David Cutcliffe with extra time to prepare has been a different team.  Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in his career in bowl games, and at Duke he has eclipsed 31 points each time they have gotten here.  There is concern that Duke's offense won't show up, but in two games against decent opponents Temple gave up 45 points to Boston College, and 52 to Central Florida.  I'm not going to buy in too much to Duke's offensive struggles as injuries to their QB had a big impact on their stats this season.  Temple also has an interim coach Ed Foley, who will not get the job, but I hear is very pumped up for this bowl game.  He was in 2016 as well in a similar situation where Temple won their last 6 games, they won 6 of 7 here, and they lost to Wake Forest, an ACC team as 12 point favorites. Here they are 3.5 point favorites against another ACC team.  The ACC went 18-4 +15.7 points per game and 12-9-2 ATS vs. Group of 5 teams, and as mentioned before Temple did not win or cover in their only game against the ACC this year. 

To put a bow on this game.  Temple needs to force turnovers to win.  They forced 12 in their final 3 games, but Duke has only turned the ball over 17 times all season.  Temple +10 in wins and -5 in losses.  Temple, I think more likely to lose the TO battle as they have turned the ball over in every game this season.  Temple also committing +3.5 more penalties, they are worse in third down offense, defense and red zone offense TD%.  I think the wrong team is favored.  If I hear Giles-Harris is a GO, I'll be back for a ML play. 

Packers -2.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Wake Forest +145 5.5% MAX POD

I mentioned on my podcast how inconsistent Wake Forest was this year, and it had a lot to do with injuries as they sent 13 guys to the season ending injury list.  However, Dave Clawson is a great head coach and they were able to win 2 road games in their last 3 games to close the year to get to a bowl game.  I like 6-6 teams who want to finish the season with a winning record in a bowl game, and Wake Forest falls into that.

Memphis is in turmoil with 3 assistant coaches leaving and their star RB Darrell Henderson sitting out to get ready for the NFL draft.  That is all in the number, and Memphis has plenty of other talent at RB position.  However, Wake Forest down the stretch held 3 teams in check on the ground including Pitt who is the #11 ranked rushing team with similar #'s and strength of schedule to Memphis #3 rushing offense.  They held their last 3 opponents to 2.8 ypc, and that's coaching. Dave Clawson 2-0 in bowl games the last two years with Wake Forest, and it's a big accomplishment if they can win a third in a row.

I also like the fact that Wake's offense is a bit under the radar here, and I think they'll score a bunch of points.  The offense really woke up down the stretch when Jamie Newman, dual threat QB took over for injured Sam Hartman, who I felt really limited the offense all year.  Newman closed the year against 3 passing defenses that are better than Memphis and had 8TD's 3 INT"s on the season.  Memphis pass defense allowed UCF's bakcup QB to run for 59 yards and 4TD's while throwing for 348 yards and 2 more TD's as Memphis choked away a big lead in the AAC Championship game.  I don't htink they can recover form that, and to add to all of this Wake Forest has a big edge in special teams.  Wake Forest wins outright. 

Marshall / South Florida Under 55 4.4% NCAAF POD

USF lost their offensive coordinator and they have a special teams coach calling the plays against a 19th ranked YPP defense in the country for the first time ever.  USF's offensive key all year long has been establishing the run.  They are 1-4 averaging just 17 points per game when they don't run the ball for more than 148 yards.  Marshal ranks 5th in rushing defense, and has only allowed 1 opponent to run for more than 142 yards.

USF defense on paper is not good and that is what is driving this high total in my opinion, but they have faced a ton of top tier offenses for which Marshall is not.  Marshall's offense has topped 30 points only 4 times.  USF's defense held UCF to 38 points.  This game is played in USF's home state, and I expect they'll be up for this game defensively.  Also, the weather is not looking ideal with 11 mph winds, and rain. 

Northern Illinois +120 5.5% MAX POD

C-USA teams have not looked good in bowl season thus far 0-2 SU and ATS as North Texas got absolutely destroyed.  Meanwhile, the MAC's Eastern Michigan covered, but should have won the game outright.  The MAC is getting a lot of negative publicity, and add that into the fact that Rod Carey, the head coach of Northern Illinois is 0-5 SU & ATS in bowl games, I think we are getting plenty of value on this play here, but lets dig deeper.

We have two top 25 defenses from a yards per play perspective and it all starts with both teams feature top pass rushes ranked in the top 10.  Both teams run the ball over 57% of the time, and the first priority for both teams will be to establish the running game, and stop the opponent's running game.  Whomever can stop the run has the best shot at winning this game, because both teams are elite at getting to the QB.

I like Northern Illinois rushing defense that has been tested this season ranking 3rd having faced an average opponent rushing offense ranking 68th compared to UAB's 19th ranking with an average opponent rushing offense ranking 92nd.  Northern Illinois should have more success stopping the run in this one, and that will open things up for Sutton Smith to continue to feast on opposing QB's.  The All-American has 15 sacks and just finds ways to get to the QB, and that's bad news for a UAB team that has thrown 15 interceptions this year.

Northern Illinois poor offensive performances have been due to injury, and strength of schedule.  They have faced 3 power 5 school teams and BYU.  They are one of the few teams that did not schedule an FCS opponent, and they have faced 10 total bowl teams compared to UAB who has faced just 5.  Northern Illinois also has the TO margin advantage, special teams and UAB lost 41-6 to a MAC team a season ago. 

49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

MTSU +7 5.5% NCAAF POD

Conference USA runner up Middle Tennessee vs. Sunbelt Champion App State.  I voted Sunbelt as the better overall conference, but I feel like MTSU has more motivation here when you factor in Father and Son QB & Coach will be playing in their last game together for Middle Tennessee.  The Stockstill’s have had a solid 4 year run, and they go up against another Sun Belt team in a bowl game. Last year they beat Arkansas State. App State loses their head coach to Louisville and DC- Mark Ivey will take over here.

Middle Tennessee has put up pretty good offensive and defensive numbers this year despite having played 3 teams from the best conference in the nation in the SEC.  Strength of schedule clearly on the side of Middle Tennessee. When you look at these conferences they are pretty close, but CUSA challenges themselves more with 23 games this season vs. the Power 5 and 11 vs. the SEC where they went 7-4 ATS.

The Sun Belt on the other hand just 12 games vs. the Power 5 and went 3-9 ATS.  Yet this is clearly the best team from the Sun Belt, but I think losing your head coach Scott Satterfeld is a big lose, he was the coach here for 5 years, and all of these players played for him now suddenly he’s gone.  The team just won the Sun Belt Championship game which was the inaugural game. They beat a team that was 116th in yards per play allowed, and a team that could not stop the run ranking 99th. MIddle Tennessee comes into this game with stronger #s and match up better in my opinion.

App State’s defensive weakness is against the pass, and that’s what MIddle Tennessee does best with Stockstill at QB.  On the flip side App State’s strength of running the ball has gotten weaker over the last few weeks. Really ever since they lost Jalin Moore the team hasn’t been the same offensively.  They will go up against a 60th ranked defense that is better than that ranking when you factor in they have faced 3 SEC opponents. THe last two weeks they faced UAB, a team that runs the ball over 60% of the time, so I think they’ll be ready for this game. This game will be in New Orleans inside so weather won’t impact this game at all and I like for MIddle Tennessee to have a shot to win the game outright.

Colts +4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Navy +7 5.5% NCAAF POD 

This is a lot of points in a game that will have limited possessions due to the style of play that these two will face off with.  Navy has played a lot better down the stretch of the season, and this game is always tight, because these teams know how to defend the option.  Navy looks to avenge losing the last two years and they haven't covered the spread in 5 years.  However, this is a large shift in this series and I don't believe it is justified.  Army regularly the dog now a big favorite, and they won outright the last 2 years by 1 point, and 4 points, and have been an average dog of 11.8 points the last 5 years, and now they are a 7 point favorite.  I don't think their is a talent gap that large, and Navy plays a tougher schedule.  Army usually playing well in the dog role is now a TD favorite, and I just don't buy it.  I've been very impressed with what Jeff Monken has done here, and I have bet on Army on the ML the last few years, but this year I'm going with the value side and backing a Navy team that has played a lot better. 

Steelers -3 5.5% NFL POD

Fresno State +120 5.5% MAX POD

I bet on Boise the last time out, and a big reason why was Fresno State had short week of rest and was traveling Saturday to Friday.  They just played in a game where their defense saw 76 plays, and UNLV ran 44 times against them.  They got off to a 17-3 lead, but a lot of things happened after that which just should not happen in the Championship game.  Rypien completed 80% of his passes, ( only 1 other team completed over 60% against Fresno), and Alex Mattison ran 30 times for 144 yards, and Fresno gave up 179 yards.  I believe Fresno State just got worn out in that game, and going into this game I think the opposite is true. 

Fresno still has to travel, but they have the regular full week, and they come off a game where their defense only saw 65 plays and 22 rushes, so they are definitely healthy. Boise State on the other hand is banged up right now after they had to fight for their lives to get to this game against Utah State.  Alex Mattison rushed the ball 37 times, and there is just no way he's going to be as effective this time around which will hurt Rypien's ability to throw the ball late.  This is the 4th match-up between tehse two teams and last year's match-up the trenches were pretty even with Boise being -28 yards rushing in last year's Championship game.  I think we could see something similar here, but with Fresno pulling the upset. 

Another thing that was strange in that game was the fact that Fresno was -9.4 yards in field position.  They have one of the best punters, and Boise has one of the worst so I expect that to also turn around in this game.  At the end of the day there were no red flags for Fresno and why they lost that game other than they just got tired at the end of the game.  Their QB play was just fine as Marcus McMaryion threw for 283 yards 1 TD and 0 INT's, completing 68.6% of his passes, and goes up against Boise's 90th rated pass defense here.  Fresno State has the advantage in teh red zone as well as they hold conference opponents to 30% TD percentage and held Boise to 50% in the first game, while they were 2-2.  Add all of this up and I like Fresno to pull the upset, they are +1.5 dog right now, but the they were a -3 point favorite just 3 weeks ago.  

Northern Illinois +3.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

Northern Illinois & Buffalo have 6 common conference opponents, and Northern Illinois is +74 yards per game, while Buffalo is only +24 yards in those games, yet Buffalo is a favorite over a field goal, because Northern Illinois dropped their last two games that were meaningless considering they had this trip locked up 3 weeks ago.  Northern Illinois also comes from the stronger West Division in this conference, and has a lot of experience getting to Detroit.  Buffalo has been here once, 10 years ago.  In non-conference play Northern Illinois by far faced a tougher schedule with Iowa, Utah, BYU, and Florida State while Buffalo had Temple (okay), Delaware State, Army (got blown out), and Rutgers.

Buffalo is led by their QB Tyree Jackson, who has been a shell of himself over the past three games, he passed for 126 yards/game, 49% completion percentage, with only 2 TD's and 3 INT's.  The passing defenses he's faced over those three games rank 102nd, 88th, and 92nd.  The "alleged" NFL talent with the big arm has not impressed me down the stretch, and Northern Illinois has the 30th ranked pass defense, with one of the best pass rushers and they rank 26th at getting to the QB.  Ohio, who ranked 69th vs. the run, and 88th vs. the pass, and 55th in sack rate held Buffalo to 17 points.  I expect Northern Illinois to make this their type of game.

Northern Illinois will play great defense, special teams, and control the line of scrimmage.  Northern Illinois has a running QB in Marcus Childers who had 456 rushing yards in conference play.  Buffalo's rush defense was really challenged by Ohio giving up over 400 yards, and could not defend their QB Nathan Rourke who had 77 yards rushing.  When Northern Illinois played Ohio they controlled the line of scrimmage holding Ohio to 46 yards, as they ran for 255.  I expect Northern Illinois with the better defense to do the same in this game, and the fact that they are dogs on a neutral field has me excited to be betting this one.  Northern Illinois also the better special teams here ranking 43rd. compared to Buffalo's 90th ranking.

Tennessee +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I’ll take the better defense that has had success on the road in conference play, and has dominated this series 28-1 from 1983-2011, but Vanderbilt has won 4 of the past 6.  The winner gets to a bowl game, and Tennessee has nothing to lose in this game in the new Jeremy Pruitt era, while Derek Mason is on the hot seat for Vanderbilt.

Tennessee’s defense is holding SEC foes 20 yards below their season average while Vanderbilt is letting those foes 73 yards above their season average.  These two teams have 5 of 7 common opponents in the SEC. Tennessee clearly the more difficult schedule with games against Alabama, and Auburn while Vanderbilt had Arkansas and Ole Miss.  In the 5 common opponents Tennessee did better in net yardage in 4 of the 5 games, and than Vanderbilt did, and the one they did not was the MIssouri game which happened just last week, but Tennessee lost their QB and best WR very early in that game and both are probable for this game.  Vanderbilt last week beat Ole Miss, one of the worst defenses in the SEC held them to 378 yards as they were out gained by 191 yards at home.

This is a big game for Tenn and Jeremy Pruit to regain control of this rivalry, and I think we are getting hidden value here based off last week’s results alone.  The better, defense, has already played close at South Carolina, and beat Auburn on the road, look for Tennessee to pull the outright upset here.

Lions +4 4.4% NFL POD

Vikings +2.5 5.5% NFL POD

Colorado +7 -105 5% NCAAF POD

Colorado has a very good home field advantage, and they were giving Washington State a game last week as they trailed by 3 at the half, but ultimately they had too many mistakes, -3 TO margin, and their WR Shenault was rusty.  Utah, won at home last week despite being without their starting QB Huntley, and RB Zach Moss who made up 84% of their offense. Shelley and Shyne, stepped in well at home, but now they are going on the road where Utah has not played particularly well in terms of their statistical splits.  I expect a desperate Colorado team, fighting for their head coaches job in their last home game of the season. Utah 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games as a favorite with 3 outright upsets. I think Colorado has a shot here for their 6th win.

SMU +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD 

Let's first take a look at the situational spot that favors SMU.  They have revenge in a very meaningful game. Both teams can clinch their division and get to the Championship game if they win out.  Memphis could be peaking ahead to their showdown with Houston next, a team that SMU beat at home already especially the fact that Memphis won 65-45 last year, and that's where the revenge comes in.  In that game Memphis was coming off a bye, and had the extra time to prepare, but here they are on short rest, and traveling.  They did this earlier in the season and lost at Tulane in blowout fashion.  Home/Away splits are huge here, as Memphis has only beaten a bad East Carolina team on the road losing to Navy, Tulane, Missouri, and SMU at home played right with Cinci, beat Navy, and beat Houston, the leader in the division.

Now let's look at the statistics and analytics.  Overall, SMU's offensive statistics are misleading, as they have played a lot better of late.  They have also faced a far tougher schedule with an average opponent ypp defense ranking 55.11 compared to Memphis who has faced 94.33.  Defensively it looks like these two teams are the same ranking 63rd (Memphis), and 65th (SMU) in yards per play allowed, but a closer look reveals that once again Memphis has faced a weaker schedule facing 79.22, while SMU's average opponent ypp offense ranks 55.33.  Need more?  SMU's opponents average defensive success rate 40.16%, compared to Memphis 43.77.  Opponent average offensive success rate 42.97% to 40.71% in favor of SMU.  So once again it's clear that SMU not only has faced a tougher schedule, but it has been drastically tougher.

On paper this looks like a bad match-up for SMU ranking 82nd in rushing defense, but they held a Houston rushing offense under 200 yards, and that Houston rushing offense is similar ranking 14th in ypc, vs. avg opponent defense 87.5.  Memphis comes into the game ranking 5th in yards per carry, and they have the leading rusher in Henderson who will flash across the media reports, but they have faced an average defense ranking 91.11 in stopping the run.  Also, SMU likes to pass more than they run, but are facing Memphis #7 ranked pass defense, but hold on that pass defense ranks 7th against an average opponent QB rating of 88.88.  

SMU, can get to the QB and protect their QB more in this game which is a huge advantage.  They have edge in overall ranking and strength of schedule so the big key will be for SMU on defense to get Memphis into third and longs to get off the field with their pass rush.  Memphis just 62nd at protecting their QB despite facing an opponent average sack rate of 96.44 in the country.  Memphis ranks 41st at getting to the QB in terms of sack rate. 

Special Teams is something often overlooked, but it clearly will come up in this game, and SMU has a huge advantage ranking 27th, compared to Memphis 123rd ranking.  TO margin, another thing you have to look at and SMU ranks 8th in TO Margin having faced an opponent average TO margin ranking 56, compared to Memphis who is 59th, and has faced an opponent average ranking of 81.

Miami Ohio +6.5 -105 4.5% NCAAF POD – no need to buy the half point.

Miami is playing their best football right now, and with near wins on the road against Buffalo, they were in that game, and at Army and then their win last week against Ohio at home, I am impressed.  This is not out of the ordinary for this team to go on a run at the end of the season with this head coach and QB Gus Ragland.  Miami Ohio will be the more motivated team here on Wednesday night as they need wins in their final two games, while Northern Illinois has clinched a spot in the MAC Championship after Ball State shocked Western Michigan in OT last night.

Northern Illinois I would argue is a bit over rated at 7-3, as they have gone 3-0 in coin flip games while Miami Ohio 4-6 has gone 0-4 in coin flip games.  I think these teams are pretty even otherwise, and getting 6.5 points to a team with a very good defense, going up against a one dimensional offense with more motivation on the side of Miami makes me really like this game here.

Northern Illinois 126th in ypp offense, has faced some of the best defenses in the country, but here they will face one of the better defenses in MAC play as Miami Ohio ranks 41st in ypp defense, and 11th vs. the run which is the strength of Northern Illinois.  Miami Ohio also ranks #1 vs. the pass and has faced better passing teams than Northern Illinois who ranks 94th in QB Rating.

Gus Ragland will be the difference here, going up against Northern Illinois struggling pass defense.  Ragland has been able to make good decisions all year, and he’s rarely sacked which is the one thing Northern Illinois pass defense relies on.  Northern Illinois defense as a whole is elite ranking 10th in ypp allowed, but they have weaknesses having faced offenses that just aren’t very good ranking 82.2 on average in ypp.  Yet they still have -0.2 ypp differential on the season.  Their run defense ranks a peculiar 100th in ypc allowed.  Miami Ohio’s rushing offense is better than their 71st ranking having faced an opponent defense ranking 46.7.  So, I think Miami Ohio can score in the 20’s and cover this spread and possibly pull the upset.

Bengals +6 5.5% NFL POD

Indiana -1.5 4.4% NCAAF POD @12PM on BIG 10 Network

Seahawks pk 5.5% POD

LIberty +115 5.5% NCAAF POD 3:30PM Kickoff

Umass officially lose their starting QB in Andrew Ford for the season, and Ross Comis who has been decent in his place will have to step up in competition facing Liberty’s 59th ranked pass defense,  Liberty has plenty of talent in the front 7 as well and Umass has not been good at protecting their QB ranking 96th in sack % allowed which has led to a lot of TO’s as they rank 120th in the nation in TO margin.  Comis just went up against 106th, and 120th ranked pass defenses, but here he faced #59, and LIberty is also off a bye with extra time to prepare.

Liberty offensively is just as good if not better than Umass as they rank 52nd in yards per play, and have faced better defenses on the season.  Their QB Stephen Calvert has 16 TD’s to 7 INT”s 2,256 yards and he will go up against the 128th ranked pass defense that also ranks 120th in getting to the QB.  He has an NFL WR in 6’4 Antonio Golden who should have a monster game, and he gets his starting RB Kentory Matthews back after he missed the last 4 games.

Umass wins have come over Charlotte and Uconn (should have lost), enough said.  Meanwhile Liberty has beaten Old Dominion (beat Virginia Tech), New Mexico, and Troy (beat Nebraska).  With Virginia and Auburn up next this is a critical game for LIberty, and they are getting healthy at the right time.  Also important to note is they commit fewer penalties, are better on 3rd down offense, defense, and red zone offense and defense, and also in special teams although not by much.

49ers -1.5 5.5% NFL POD

Florida +7 -115 5% NCAAF POD

Georgia has not looked good in the trenches in their two games against top 30 opponents Missouri, and LSU.  Though they won at MIssouri they gave up 4 rushing TD’s, and were lucky to have been +2 TO margin. They lost at LSU 2 weeks ago at the line of scrimmage as LSU rushed for 275 yards compared to Georgia’s 113.  Florida hosted LSU and beat them by out rushing them 215 to 180. I really don’t see much separating these two teams other than the QB position which I give an edge to Jake Fromm, but he has a ton of pressure on him this week with a freshman QB breathing down his back all year long.

The big question here is whether or not Florida can run the ball?  I believe the answer is yes, and I think they will outgain Georgia on the ground in this game.  Florida has faced tougher run defenses #63 compared to #73 for Georgia in run defense, and their offense has faced a much tougher run defense schedule facing #56 run defense on average compared to Georgia who has faced #70.  Georgia ranks 73rd in yards per carry allowed, and hasn’t faced a ton of teams that excel at running the ball. Florida ranks 28th in running the ball and 56th at stopping the run, but they have been getting better with every week.

I mentioned the QB play of Fromm being the one advantage that Georgia had, but Georgia is not the same team as last year.  They have not protected Fromm or given him much time as they rank 81st in sack % allowed and that’s with facing an average pass rush ranking 83.5.  Here Florida comes in ranking 18th at getting to the QB. Feleipe Franks for Florida has taken care of the ball and the offensive line has done a great job at protecting him as they rank 32nd in pass protection efficiency and will go up against a Georgia defense that ranks 107th at getting to the QB.  

Florida also has the edge in special teams, and Georgia’ spunting game has been very shaky this season which could lead to a field position edge for Florida.  Florida also ranks 11th in TO margin having faced an average opponent ranking 62 in TO margin. Compare that with Georgia who ranks 41st having faced an opponent ranking 75th.  More than likely that tells us that Florida should win the TO battle if anything, and that makes sense as they have been really good at getting to the QB.

South Alabama +13

Does this sound like a team you want to back as a double digit road favorite?  In their last game with a backup QB that they are with for the rest of the season they lost 3 TO’s, had 10 penalties, and went 4-15 on third down.  Troy has played  on average a 114th ranked defense, and they are still holding onto their victory at Nebraska which looks less and less impressive, and Nebraska was without their starting QB Adrian Martinez and their backup is a huge downgrade.

Meanwhile South Alabama comes in under the radar and have faced a very challenging schedule, but with 10 days to prepare and a weak opponent last time out to get their confidence going should be in good position to pull the upset.  Take a look at South Alabama’s schedule they have already played 4 road games, and they have played 3 of the best group of 5 teams in the nation in App State, Memphis, and LA Tech.  They then had to face a triple option Georgia Southern team in their 3rd straight road game.  I am not surprised this team struggled one bit.  Their offense has struggled ranking 127th in yards per play, but that has come against an average defensive opponent ranked #49.5 in defense compare that with Troy’s 114thranking and QB Evan Orth should have a quality game here.  Orth is completing 67.2% of his passes has 7 TD passes and 3 INT’s on the year.  South Alabama’s strength of schedule is the hidden gem here.  They look like this awful 2-5 team facing a 5-2 team, but have faced teams who are top 50 in a lot of categories.  They have also faced on average a top 50 YPP offense at 49.67, opponent rushing ypc of 49.33, an opponent QB Rating of 50.33, an average QB rating defense of 50.33.

Ravens -2.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Kentucky -11

If you have been following me this year you know I am a fan of Kentucky backing them against Florida and Texas A&M.  This is a great matchup for Kentucky coming off a bye where Vanderbilt is off back to back physical games in SEC play where they were dominated at the line of scrimmage.  Kentucky will also get another night game at home, and the weather favors their style of play as there will be 15mph winds.

Vanderbilt’s strength is their QB play of Kyle Shurmur as they throw the ball 53% of the time.  I don’t see him being as effective here. For one he is going up against the 8th ranked pass defense, and 29th ranked pass rush, but the wind will keep this game more on the ground.  Vanderbilt is 58th in yards per carry and have faced a run defense ranked 58.3 on average. Here they face the #22 defense which has been tested having faced #48.4.

Kentucky, off the bye and not only do they have a dominating running back in Benny Snell, but they have a mobile QB in Terry Wilson which is something that Vanderbilt has not faced this year.  Kentucky will run the ball over 65% of the time which is their average so their game plan in the weather won’t have to change much. They’ll go up against a Vanderbilt run defense that ranks 86th.  This running game that is 16th in yards per carry is well tested having faced #54.8 on average.

These two have common opponents in SEC play and Vanderbilt played both of those games at home against Florida and South Carolina.  It’s obvious that Kentucky is the better team as they outgained those two opponents by 120 yards while Vanderbilt was outgained by 490 yards, and Kentucky has to play Florida on the road.  Vanderbilt also -24% success rate in the Florida game last week so their 10 point loss was actually really misleading as they should have lost by more.

Vanderbilt has struggled big time in conference play, and we are still getting value here on Kentucky in my opinion who should control the line of scrimmage.  VAnderbilt in 3 SEC games between Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina were outgained on the ground 261-112 on average. Compare that with Kentucky who faced Florida Miss State, South Carolina and they outgained them on the ground on average of 242-104.  Expect 300+ yards on the ground for Kentucky as they wear out Vanderbilt in the second half and win this one by 3TD’s.

Steelers +110 5.5% NFL POD

Iowa State +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Iowa State 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a dog, and they are a significant step up in competition for West Virginia.  West Virginia is not #6 ranked team just like LSU was not #5 going on the road as a favorite a week ago and losing at Florida.  This is the Big 12 version of that with Iowa State playing very well despite injuries at QB position Iowa State managed to upset Oklahoma State last week on the road.  They also played Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa to 10 pints or less.

Iowa State inserted mobile QB Brock Purdy and against a good defense in Oklahoma State he put up 400+ yards and 5 TD”s, 4 through the air.  Iowa State’s offense is very under rated in my opinion as they rank 83rd in yards per play, but have faced a tough schedule facing defenses ranked on average #36 in yards per play allowed.  Here they face another good defense in West Virginia #25, but West Virginia has not played faced a top 35 team yet.

West Virginia’s offense has dominated behind Will Grier, but look at the defenses they have faced.  On average ranking 102nd yards per play allowed, 92nd average in QB rating defense, and on average they have faced a rushing defense ranking 99.5.  The rushing defense is what really is a red flag, because it appears West Virginia is completely one dimensional on offense and that won’t win on the road.  They rank 73rd in yards per carry and they faced on average a 99.5 ranked defense. Here they face Iowa State’s 13th ranked rushing defense. What does that mean?

Unless West Virginia throws early they are going to set themselves up on third and longs and Iowa State ranks 32nd in sack %.  They can put pressure on the QB and force mistakes. West Virginia is 99th in TO Margin, and Grier turned the ball over 3 times inside the 30.  Iowa State will be fine giving up the yards to West Virginia, but are stingy in the red zone allowing just 50% TD percentage. Last year they gave up a ton of yards, but held West Virginia to 20 points.  This is a night game in Ames with a great home crowd looking for an upset before going into their bye.

Bills +5 5.5% NFL POD

Texas +7.5 -1.15 4.5 NCAAF POD

NY Giants +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

South Carolina +1 5.5% NCAAF POD

Kentucky is a hot pick right now and everyone is picking them over South Carolina this week.  I am high on Kentucky, and I even bet them at Florida, but I think this is a different match-up.  This is the first time Kentucky is in the AP Top 25 in 11 years and they are facing an unranked team yet they are only a 1 point favorite?  They have actually dominated South Carolina over the last 4 years winning 4 straight, but they are only a 1 point favorite? Kentucky is actually just 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, and South Carolina has covered their last 8 road games.

This is a different South Carolina that Kentucky has to go against this week compared to Florida and Miss State who they took down as double digit dogs.  Florida and Miss State can not pass the ball and are one dimensional on offense. South Carolina with Jake Bentley and their star receivers can move the ball through the air which should open up some running lanes.  The strength of this Kentucky team is in the front 7, and South Carolina’s offensive line has been very good protecting the QB ranking 9th in sack % allowed.

South Carolina is a balanced offense and although they rank similarly in yards per play at #20 to Miss State and Florida who ranked 18th and 22nd the strength of schedule South Carolina has faced to get there is totally different.  Miss State ranks 18th, but faced YPP defenses of 100th, 122 and an FCS foe. Florida ranks 22nd but faced 126, 95 and an FCS foe. South Carolina ranks 20th, can pass the ball, and played 116th, 23rd, and 41st ranked defenses.

South Carolina is also led by a defensive minded coach.  They held Benny Snell to 103 rushing yards on 32 carries which is pretty damn good in last year’s game.  South Carolina will force Terry Wilson at QB to beat them and so far he has 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s. This is simply a bad matchup for Kentucky.

Steelers pk 4.4% play 

Redskins +135 5.5% NFL POD

UNLV +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

There is some value here with UNLV, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog, and they continue to improve under Tony Sanchez and are poised to get back to a bowl game this year.  UNLV is a dominant running team and chooses to do so 67% of the time. This trends well in road games as a dog, and UNLV should be able to get the running game going in this game, because Arkansas State has had trouble stopping the run this year.  UNLV is also a very diciplined team with just 3.7 penalties per game compared to Arkansas State who is averaging 11 penalties per game. UNLV was very impressive at USC rushing for over 300 yards in their first game and held USC to only 1 passing TD.

Arkansas State has Justin Hansen at QB, but UNLV has already proven they can stop a talented QB or hold them in check.  I see a bend but don’t break defense here for UNLV with strengths in the red zone. UNLV’s Armani Rogers might just be better than Hansen.  When we look at Arkansas State they have dominated the Sun Belt - 17-7 ATS the last 3 seasons, but outside the Sun Belt they are just 4-10 ATS.  The Mountain West (UNLV’s conference) is 18-12 vs. the Sun Belt since 2010 +8.7 points per game. Boise State already took down Troy this season by 36 points.

Titans +3 5.5% NFL POD

Utah +5 4.4% NCAAF POD @ 10pm et

I like the Utes to pull the upset here.  Utah has been a tough out for Washington in their last 3 matchups.  Utah won by 11, they lost by 7 on a last minute kick return TD, they lost by 3 last year as they gave up 10 points in the final minute. 

Utah to me has the better QB in this one in Tyler Huntley who threw for 293 passing yards at Washington last year 2 TD’s and 1 INT.  Jake Browning has really struggled on the road in his career against good defenses, and Utah should be able to stop the run.  They held Washington to 124 yards on the ground on the road last year, and just got done holding run heavy Northern Illinois to 117 and under 3 yards per carry.

Utah has an excellent home field advantage and a very good special teams.  I expect a close game with Utah being in position to win the game outright.

Bengals +121 5.5% POD

Nevada + 8.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

I think Nevada is a live dog this week as Vanderbilt is off a misleading 35-7 final over Middle Tennessee their instate rival with Notre Dame on deck.  Nevada has a Sr. QB in Ty Gangi who can really be a weapon in the air raid offense that Nevada runs and Vanderbilt rarely sees. Vanderbilt actually allowed MIddle Tenn twice as many yards in the first half, but held onto a 14-7 halftime lead.  Overall MIddle Tennessee had 7 trips into VAnderbilt territory and came away with an amazing 0 points. Don’t expect Nevada to fall into the same situation.

Vanderbilt should be down this year with just 5 returning on defense and 12 overall.  Nevada held their own in a meaningful game a year ago at Northwestern losing 21-30 and I expect they will be in this game with a chance to win it in the end.

Miami Ohio +120 5.5% NCAAF POD

I don’t really understand why Miami is a home dog here when they are on the same level as Marshall.  I think the MAC is pretty even to C-USA as well and this was the season opener last year where Miami Ohio actually played better but lost the game.  The game was at Marshall and Miami Ohio was a small road favorite and outgained Marshall 429 - 267, but lost because of 2 kick return TD’s and a 72 yard interception returned for a TD.  Luckily we had Miami Ohio in a teaser and still covered, but it was a warning sign to a very unlucky season for Miami Ohio that I believe they are motivated to turn around in 2018.

Miami Ohio had 4 losses by 5 points or less, they lost their QB for 3 games in Gus Ragland (returning), 2 OL starters.  This all after they beame the first team in college football history to start 0-6 and finish 6-0 in 2016 behind Ragland who had a 17 TD to 1 INT Ratio.  This is obviously a game they want to make a statement about what kind of team they will be in 2018. They have senior leadership all over the field who have been starting since 2016 and were part of that turn around.

Marshall here returns 18 starters, but they are getting enough credit here in the line.  I really don’t like this team as a road favorite under Doc HOlliday as they are better an an underdog role.  Under Holliday they have gone 8-14-1 ATS as a road favorite. This was a winning team ATS last year so we naturally want to fade them the following year despite the 18 returning starters they do not return their starting QB.  They get a grad transfer from Wagner who is hyped to have NFL talent, but going up against a very underrated Miami Ohio defense I think the offense will struggle as they did a year ago.

Patriots -4 5.5% NFL POD

Eagles +3.5 -11.5 5.5% POD

Jaguars +7 4.4% NFL POD

Eagles +3 5.5% NFL POD

Georgia +4 5.5% POD

I give a small edge in coaching to Alabama with Nick Saban having an 11-0 record 9-2 ATS vs. former assistants, but note that he was on average a 17 point favorite in those games.  No coach ever spent more than 5 years with Saban while Kirby Smart spent the last 8 years up until 2015.  Georgia's offensive coordinator Jim Chaney I have over Jeremy Pruitt who takes over Tennessee after this game.  Chaney spent years with NFL teams and in the SEC, but more importantly brought his offensive line coach Sam Pittman.  Pittman knows how to run the ball and get his line to block.  Just ask Arkansas and Brett Bielema how they did after Pittman left.

Special Teams is about even as both teams have special kickers and neither team has a punt or kick return for a TD.  Georgia's Rodrigo Blankenship hit a 55 yarder before the half which changed momentum int he game against Oklahoma.  They also blocked a kick to win the game, but Alabama has been known to win games with special teams in this type of game.

Georgia's offense vs. Alabama's defense is a big key.  Alabama got healthy, but lost another linebacker in their game against Clemson.  Alabama has not been as dominant vs. good rushing teams as they have in the past shutting down just 1 of the 5 top 45 rushing offenses they faced.  On average allowing 139 yards per game in those 5 games and 7 TD's.  Meanwhile Georgia's rushing attack has faced 6 top 45 run defenses and only 1 team in a road game at Auburn shut them down, but their coaching staff made adjustments and they rushed for over 200 in the SEC Championship.

Georgia's Jake Fromm is the key here as they can make all the throws that Jarret Stidham did when Auburn beat Alabama with their balance attack.  For a true freshman he's been extremely impressive and even getting the confidence of coaches to change the play at the line of scrimmage.  If you want to beat Alabama you better have a QB and Georgia certainly does.  You can get more info on the Georgia offense vs. Alabama defense in this week's podcast where I gave Georgia in overall slight advantage.

Alabama's offense vs. Georgia's defense is another advantage in my opinion for Georgia.  On paper Georgia ranked 32nd in stopping the run, but they faced 7 teams in the top 25 in rushing offense.  They faced some weird ones too with Georgia Tech's triple option, Oklahoma's #1 offense and RPO spread offense, along with facing Auburn's offense twice.  They shut down 4 of the 8 rushing offenses in the top 45 that they faced.  Their run defense is much better than it looked a week ago and a big reason why we have them as dogs.  Alabama doesn't have a 1,000 yard rusher this year.  Meanwhile they still ranked #10 in rushing offense from a ypc perspective and #15 in QB Rating.  

We saw Clemson really shut down Alabama's offense and we saw Auburn do the same thing in the Iron Bowl.  This Georgia defense is really similar in a lot of ways and can do the same thing.  Alabama's Jalen Hurts has faced a weaker schedule having faced on average a 66.8 run defense.  Georgia has the #6 pass defense to go along with that, and we have seen Hurts struggle to get much going.  He's faced 6 top 50 passing defenses.  He eclipsed 200 yards 1x, and was held under 121 passing yards 3 times.  He ranked 96th in sack % because he'd rather take a sack than throw an interception.  I see Georgia getting after him here they held Brandon Wimbush a mobile QB from Notre Dame to 1 yard on 16 carries.

Georgia may not have as impressive numbers here or there, but they have gotten better as the season progressed especially on offense.  They are coming off a game where they made a major come back, and have a ton of confidence in offense and now they get to face a one dimensional offense.  Alabama certainly has the receivers, but Georgia is going to make Hurts beat them and his numbers despite not turning the ball over against the top 50 passing defenses he's faced have not been impressive.  Either I think this game comes down to a field goal these two teams really are even, but Georgia is the more complete team with balance on offense and they have faced a tougher schedule. 

TITANS +8 5.5% POD

Oklahoma +125 5.5% POD

The SEC has not played well in bowl games thus far going 1-3 while the Big 12 as I mentioned might just be the best conference this year.  They have gone 5-2 in bowl games.  The SEC is still getting too much credit for being the SEC, and there is a thought out there that Oklahoma just doesn't play defense which just is not true.  Oklahoma went on the road and faced Ohio State who dominated them a year ago and held that powerful rushing attack to 167 yards.  That was less than Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin who all gave up over 200 yards to Ohio State.  In this game I would not be shocked to see Oklahoma do a good job against the run.  They are simply capable and the game plan will be to force Georgia into third and longs and force Jake Fromm the freshman to beat them.

That's another big reason why I like Oklahoma here to win this game.  They are an experienced group of guys with a senior QB that won't let his team lose.  They are 4-0 SU & ATS vs. SEC teams the last two years beating Alabama and Auburn recently.  This group has been in the playoff and felt the pain of losing to Clemson.  Georgia, while they are talented are not as talented in the pass rush as the 2015 Clemson team that beat them.  Georgia is 85th in adjusted sack rate while Clemson was 13th in 2015.  This Oklahoma offensive line is also much better and if you can go on the road and defeat an Ohio State defensive line and do it in dominating fashion than I am sold.  Oklahoma was +140 yards in that game against Ohio State the 26th ranked adjusted sack rate team.  Oklahoma also beat Oklahoma State on the road and beat TCU twice all three of these teams were in the college football playoff mix and won their bowl games.  Meanwhile Georgia's biggest win against Notre Dame on the road by only 1 point.  Notre Dame struggled and got beat big in each of their step up games with Miami, and Stanford were lucky to beat Michigan State and USC (banged up).

Oklahoma faced 9 bowl teams and were +199 yards per game.  Georgia's defense is great, but they rarely faced an opponent that could move the ball running and throwing like they do here.  The closest match-up would probably be Auburn and when Auburn was healthy they put up 40 points on this Georgia defense.  Auburn was missing their most valuable player in the Championship game in Kerryon Johnson who was clearly not 100%.  This defense also gave up 28 points to Missouri at home.  Missouri is a nice offense with a little balance and a decent QB, but we saw Missouri struggle offensively against Texas in the bowl game, and Auburn in their own building.  Georgia in my opinion really has not been tested defensively like they will be in this game.

Panthers +4 5.5% POD

Wake Forest -3 5.5% POD

This game is being played at BOA in Charlotte which gives Wake Forest a home field advantage.  I also think there is a lot of value here with Wake Forest who had better results and faced a tougher schedule.  On average they ranked #41.2 facing an average opponent ranking #56.1, while Texas A&m ranked #71 facing an average opponent ranking #59.7.  A&M went 1-4 against 5 bowl teams while Wake Forest went 4-5 against 9 bowl teams.  The ACC also has gone 2-1 SU & ATS in bowl play so far compared to a weak showing for the SEC at 0-1 with Missouri losing to Big 12 Texas as favorites.  Even dating back to last year it has been evident that the ACC is better than the SEC.

Another edge besides strength of schedule is the fact that Texas A&M has an inexperienced guy calling the shots in Jeff Banks.  Banks is the special teams coach as Kevin Sumlin was let go and Jimbo Fisher took over.  This has not worked out well thus far in bowl games.  Banks special teams unit was a strength of this team ranking #40, but I think that has everything to do with the talents of Christian Kirk.  For Wake Forest, Dave Clawson has won everywhere he's gone.  He came in and fixed the biggest issue for Wake Forest was their size on the offensive line and has turned this offense around starting in 2015 when he started 4 freshman on the OL.  This year this year they allowed 19 fewer sacks and averaged a yard more per carry and QB John Wolford also saw the benefit as he tossed 25 TD's and 6 INT's for the #12 ranked QB rating in the nation.  That rating is legit too as Wake Forest faced off against a ton of top passing defenses with an average rank of #43.1.

Wake Forest goes up against Texas A&M's #83 pass defense.  Wake Forest faced three teams not in the top 50 in pass defense and they scored 43.3 points per game.  A&M's pass defense is a bit misleading I'll admit at #83 hailing from the tough SEC, but the SEC was down this year.  A&M faced 5 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they went 1-4.  They beat an Ole Miss team that was starting a backup QB after Shea Patterson was lost for the season.  In those 4 games they allowed 36.6 points per game.  A&M has a nice pass rush, but Wake Forest was only sacked 17 times on the year.

A&M's offense was hit or miss this year, and they'll struggle in my opinion facing the #25 passing defense.  Wake Forest plays an aggressive style and even their run defense is better than the stats state as they faced an average rushing rank of #40.4.  A&M ranks 83rd in rushing ypc after facing an average rushing defense 68.2, again the SEC is over rated!  A&M generally took care of the ball with only 16 TO's and have a +4 margin, but they had 8 TO's in 3 games which were the only 3 times they faced a top 25 pass defense which Wake Forest is.  Wake Forest however +7 in TO margin only turned it over 11 times and 5 of those came in games against top 30 pass defenses.  They only turned the ball over 1 time in road games at Clemson and Notre Dame which is extremely impressive. 

Michigan State -1.5 5.5% POD

This Michigan State team has a huge chip on their shoulder as they feel slighted for not being picked for the New Year's Day Outback Bowl.  instead their rival who they beat, Michigan was chosen.  I think they will give it their best to win and dominate this game and I think they can over a Washington team that has plenty of holes.

First of all we need to bring up Washington State's game last year against  Minnesota team that had 10 guys suspended or more yet they were unable to win losing 12-17.  The previous two years they played in 3 point games against Rutgers so Washington has struggled in the Leach era against the Big Ten.  Leach is actually only 4-8 ATS in bowl games and goes up against Dantonio who is a very good coach and will have his team ready for this game.

Aside from the motivation I like the match-up here for Michigan State who rank #10 in pass defense and won't have to worry much about a rushing offense as Washington State ranks 129th in the nation in rushing offense.  Luke Falk, QB at Washington State will have his hands full here against a press man to man coverage.  He'll also be missing his top 2 WR for this game.

For MIchigan State's offense it's all about QB Brian Lewerke.  I think Lewerke was a bit banged up at the end of the year, but he is a guy who threw for over 885 yards in two games against very good defenses in Northwestern #26th in YPP allowed and Penn State 22nd in YPP allowed.  He really only had one bad game against Ohio State on the road in a very bad spot.  I would not be surprised to see Michigan State come out throwing against Washington State who will be without their best defensive player in Hercules Maat'fa for the first half for a suspension.  They can then use their size late to wear down Washington State's smaller defensive front.  Washington State #58 in rushing ypc defense.  Michigan State's 3 losses came against very good run defenses ranking #19 on average.  When they can run the ball they typically win and Washington showed it in the Apple Cup that Washington State struggles against a well coached physical style opponent.

There are other factors I like here as Washington State has the #115 special teams and have turned the ball over 29 times this season.  I thought Washington State's defense carried them this year and should keep this game close, but Falk will have some mistakes and they will continue to struggle in these type of match-ups. 

Purdue +142 5.5% POD

Coaching edge to Jeff Brohm here as Rich Rodriguez has a 2-8 ATS bowl record, but for some reason Arizona is favored probably because of Khalil Tate.  This offense reminds me of the offenses that Rodriguez had at Michigan with Denard Robinson which you can easily scheme for.  If you can stop the run you should win the game and perhaps even dominate.  The other thing to consider here is the fact that teams that rely heavily on a running QB like Arizona really struggle the more film that's available.  Look at what Louisville did down the stretch last year and then this year.

Speaking of Louisville, Purdue held them in check in their loss to open the season.  Lamar Jackson managed his team to only 146 yards.  Louisville has the #1 ranked rushing attack.  Overall Purdue ranks #26 vs. the run.  Arizona's wins have come against bad rushing defenses ranking on average 97.3.  While their 5 losses have come against an average run defense ranking #55.  They are also 0-5 when held under 250 yards rushing.  Purdue gave up 250+ rushing only once this season and it came against Wisconsin on the road and they still held Wisconsin to only 17 points.  Purdue is also solid ranking 46th in QB rating defense and their defense has very good veteran presence.  We also saw this team go on the road and face #7 YPP Offense in Missouri and beat them 35-3.

I've explained a bit how Purdue can shut down Arizona's offense, and I feel their offense will be able to put up points on Arizona's defense.  Jeff Brohm after all is an offensive minded coach, and with extra time to prepare I against a defense that is not very good against the pass or run and is under sized.  Purdue also wins games when their offense is involved.  I was impressed with their road win at Iowa down the stretch even though I called for it.  In their wins they average 4.79 ypc compared to 3.96 in losses, and their QB rating is 153 vs. 106.  Here they go up against Arizona's #86 yards per play defense.  That comes against a schedule where they faced an average offense ranking 70.1.  They ranked 81st vs. the run 87th vs. the pass, and are banged up in the front 7.  This is a game I see Purdue offense being able to move the ball in the air and on the ground.  Arizona's defense really relied on takeaways.  Purdue had just 16 on the season and 10 of those came in the first 5 games with only 6 over their last 7 games.  Arizona also turned the ball over 20 times and are more turnover prone.

49ers +4.5 5.5% POD

Central Michigan +3.5 5.5% POD

This game is at elevation in Idaho which favors Wyoming who is used to playing in it, but in a match-up like this where the defenses should dominate I don't anticipate elevation playing too big of a factor, but we could have snow. The winds won't be too crazy so I don't anticipate the offenses being impacted too much. When we look at Wyoming they are getting too much credit here being favored. Josh Allen, the QB many NFL teams are interested in will be playing and I think that has a lot to do with the 3-3.5 point move, but I don't' agree with it. If you are a top 5 NFL QB draft pick you make the players around you better. Allen really has not done that, and part of it is how bad his offensive line has been ranking 124th in adjusted line yards. He's gotten no help from the running game either ranking 121st in ypc, while his QB rating is good for 104th. Central Michigan on the other hand has been in this role all year long. Favored in just 4 games they were able to win 8 and one could argue they were the best team out of the MAC. CMU has beaten up on poor offenses. Their 8 wins have come against an average offensive opponent ranking 109th in YPP and again Wyoming comes into this game ranking 124th so it fits what they have done all year. Their 4 losses have come against an average offense ranking 45.3 and as I mentioned that just isn't Wyoming. It's not as if Wyoming's offense has struggled because of strength of schedule. Their offense has faced an average defense ranking 75.4. Their wins have come against the bad defenses with an average rank of 103rd while their losses have come against an average defense ranking 42.2. Well, Central Michigan ranks 22nd in yards per play defense. When looking at Wyoming we know they have a very good defense. Ranking 12th in yards per play allowed while facing an average offense ranking 75.6. I looked deeper at what type of teams they struggled against. It was against teams with good QB play. Shane Morris from CMU is a good QB as the Chippewas ranked 54th in QB rating against an average opponent of 66.2 on defense which is a strong schedule. Wyoming against top 60 passing offenses went 1-4, and their 1 win came against a team that was not good defensively ranking 107th in yards per play defense. Central Michigan ranks 22nd. Meanwhile Central Michigan only went 2-3 against top 60 passing defenses. However their 3 losses came against teams who could move the ball ranking 54th, 20th, and 6th in yards per play, Wyoming ranks 124th. This recent line move offers tremendous value. I don't often like taking a team after finishing the season strong heading into a bowl with the long time off they lose their momentum. However, I like what I have seen many times form Central Michigan. I think they are the better team, and I could argue they faced a stronger schedule. They have won in situations against similar Wyoming teams more often than Wyoming has won against Central Michigan teams.

FIU +7 4.4% PLAY  

This game takes place in St. Petersburg, FL which is much closer for the FIU athletes. This game will be in a dome, and I think that favor FIU's offense here. I also like the coaching edge with Butch Davis 5-2 in bowl games, with Geoff Collins coaching in his first. I looked in depth at what both teams can do on the line of scrimmage and running the ball. FIU wants to run the ball and they rank 56th in yards per carry. They'll be going up against a Temple defense that has not been good against the run ranking 83rd, but some of that has to do with strength of schedule as they have faced an average opponent rush defense ranking 45th. However, FIU does have balance with the QB so it's not like Temple can sell out to stop the run. FIU faced 4 TOP 50 rushing defenses and they beat 2 of them. Looking at Temples ability to run the ball and it gets worse for Temple who ranks 88th in ypc, and that was against an average opponent run defense ranking 78th. They lost to 3 teams who did not rank in the top 70 in run defense much like FIU who comes in ranking 93rd, but had a tough schedule facing an average opponent offense ranking 56th. FIU went 5-1 against teams ranking 75th or worse against the run. Overall I give the edge running the ball in this game to FIU and it makes sense when we compare the offensive lines in this game. Temple ranks 118th in adjusted line yards, while FIU ranks 56th. Let's look at the passing attacks. As you may know Temple got a ton of credit down the stretch as they switched their QB to Frank Nutile and he did play better than Logan Marchi, but still turned the ball over 7 times. Marchi also went against passing defense ranked 103, 120, 111, 45 (loss), and 127. So I would believe most QB's could put up decent and probably better numbers than he did in those 5 games. Overall Temples passing offense still on the season ranked 82nd in QB rating and they faced an average opponent ranking 81st in QB rating defense. Not really impressed with Temples' offense at all. FIU meanwhile has a senior QB in Alex McGough who had a very good year and this offense had a QB rating ranked #29 in the nation and faced a tougher schedule facing opponent defenses ranking #65. Temple does have a clear edge in pass defense, but they only rank #65 and against teams ranked in the top 50 passing the ball they actually went 2-4 on the season. FIU, very bad against the pass, but they did have a tough schedule with an average opponent ranking #67. Temple may be able to move the ball in the air in this one, but I would expect FIU to force some turnovers. Slight edge to FIU here as well. I remind you that FIU is a dog. Mainly because of Temple's success down the stretch and their alleged strength of schedule. However, they turn the ball over far too much to be laying 7 points in FIU's home state. They have no edge in special teams ranking #22 to FIU's #21. They don't have a coaching edge, and their offense which would have to score a lot of points to cover this spread really is not good at throwing or running the ball. FIU's defense in my opinion is a bit under rated ranking #92 in yards per play, but an average opponent rank of #67. When facing an opponent offense ranking 60th or worse they went 6-1.

Browns +7 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs +100 4.5% NFL POD

Middle Tennessee +3.5 5.5% POD

Since 2014, Conference USA is 15-5 against the Sun Belt and 4-2 this year.  Their 2 losses came with their 2 worst teams Charlotte & UTEP facing two bowl teams from the Sun Belt.  The 4 wins all by a TD or more.  Middle Tennessee is a dog, because they only won 6 games, and Arkansas State is that sexy team with the sexy QB in Justice Hansen.  However, the Blue Raiders were picked to win C-USA by many and in game 2 they went into Syracuse and won.  The same place Clemson lost on the road later in the season.  Also worth noting is Middle Tennessee played 6 bowl teams with 3 power 5 opponents.  Arkansas State only had 2 opponents that are in bowls and played FCS and 1 power 5 opponent being Nebraska who did not get to a bowl game. 

Middle Tennessee lost their QB in after week 2 and the season really turned for the worse.  They were already without their starting RB, Terrelle West to start the year.  Both are healthy for the bowl game and when Stockstill is playing this offense ranks 36 points per game and without just 19.5.  This is a very balanced offense with West back healthy he had 170 rushing yards in their last game and they have an extra week to prepare for this game vs. what Arkansas State has. 

Before we get to Middle Tennessee State's defense let's take a look at Arkansas State.  This offense was amazing this year and Justice Hansen who threw for 3,630 yards 34 TD's and 15 interceptions.  A closer look though reveals the defenses they have faced have been trash.  An average opponent ranking 93.5 in yards per play allowed.  Hansen has gone up against some of the worst passing defenses in the nation.  8 out of his 10 opponents were 91st or worse in pass defense.  He faced Troy 65th, and lost and beat New Mexico State who ranked 52nd.  MTSU faced 6 passing offenses in the top 60.

MTSU ranked 20th in yards per play allowed with their defense really picking things up this year.  In years past it was really their weakness that kept them from bowl wins.  This year they had no choice but to play defense with Stockstill gone for most of the season.  Middle Tennessee is also 12th in yards per completion which could cause some issues for Arkansas State's passing game while the run defense has been solid all year allowing just 5.61 yards per carry.

Arkansas State's defense probably has seen one offense better and that was SMU who put 44 points up on them.  There are a lot of ways MTSU can win this game.  Arkansas State has no business being a favorite when they have turned the ball over 18 times in 6 road games this year.  They are also averaging nearly 2 more penalties per game than Middle Tennessee ranking 125th in the nation.  The one big strength their defense has that I can not deny is Ja'von Rolland-Jones who has 13 sacks in 11 games.  However, MTSU typically under Stockstill gets rid of the ball fast he took just 14 sacks a year ago.  This year the offensive line ranks 17th in sack rate on passing downs.  I think Middle Tennessee comes into this game with a bit of a chip on their shoulder having not won a bowl game since 2009.  Their leader Stockstill can lead them to a bowl game now that he's back and that's exactly what I'll predict. 

Eagles +100 5.5% NFL POD

Browns +14 5.5% POD

Memphis +7.5 5.5% POD / Memphis +250 1%

We have two very similar teams meeting again in Florida for the AAC Championship game.  These two met back in week 3 and it was a UCF win 40-13.  Central Florida opened as a 2.5 point favorite in that game and climbed to 5.5 at close.  We really did not know much about that team, and Memphis did not either.  Fast Forward and neither of these teams have lost a game since and it's an interesting rematch between the two, but we are getting 4.5 - 5 points of line value, because on a neutral field these two teams are as evenly matches as possible. 

Both head coaches are looking to better jobs next year most likely, and they are backed by two very good balanced offenses while both defenses really leave a lot to be desired.  Central Florida 96th vs. the pass, Memphis is 98th, and on paper we should have a high scoring game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower scoring game here.

In the first match-up Memphis pretty much played as bad as you can with 4 turnovers.  It was their first road game of the season and it really looked like it.  The turnovers were pretty bad there was a fumble in the red zone that took away at least 3 points off the scoreboard.  Shortly after Central Florida had a 95 yard TD run recapping momentum and taking a huge 16-7 lead at the time.  Later in the second quarter Riley Fergusson threw an interception that was tipped as Memphis was driving which was returned 35 yards and later UCF scored a TD making it 23-7.  At that point the balanced offense that Memphis does possess was sort of out the window.  In the third Fergusson threw another interception as Memphis was driving.  This one was just a bad throw, but probably took another 3-7 points off the board for the Tigers.  The third interception came after a huge 3rd and 12 where the receiver dropped a wide open catch.  On 4th down Fergusson forced a ball that was dropped again by his receiver and picked off setting UCF up in their own territory leading to another TD.  All in all there were also 3 fumbles in this game which UCF recovered each and every one.  Simply luck if you ask me.  I expect this game to be tight much like UCF's last game.

UCF was actually lucky to beat USF who out gained them by 120 yards and won on a 95 yard kickoff return for a TD.  In reality UCF's defense has not looked as dominant down the stretch they have been worse in run offense and defense as the months have progressed yet they have been helped by a very easy schedule.  Their 3rd down play which really won them the game in the first match up as they converted 10-18 and allowed just 4-12 and 1-4 on 4th down has been a struggle lately.  They are converting just 38% over their last 4 games and have allowed 40% conversion over their last 4 games.  Memphis defense has gotten better throughout the season allowing 52% conversions in September, 44% in October, and then 32% in November.

It was just a bad game for Memphis they match-up pretty well in this game and definitely have the ability to win this game.

California +7 4.4% POD / California +235 1%

This game is a very important for both teams with a 6th win and a bowl game on the line.  However, I feel it's much more important to the Cal team who have a first year head coach who has transitioned the program to a completely different style of football.  The extra practice would be a huge benefit.  On the other side you have UCLA, with Josh Rosen who likely will be a top 10 draft pick playing after their head coach was fired.  Does Rosen want to risk an injury?  Does he even want to get to a bowl game?  I have far more questions on the UCLA side than Cal.  Even if UCLA comes to play I like what I have seen from this Cal team in this role this season.

Wilcox has a very good defensive mind, and I think they are able to take Rosen out of this game a bit.  I read an article about how Cal is awful against the pass.  Really?  They have faced 3 future NFL QB's this year.  Ole MIss, Shea Patterson, Washington State's Luke Falk, and USC's Sam Darnold.  They won 2 of those 3 games as an under dog and held the trio of NFL QB's to 4 passing TD's and 8 interceptions.  Now they'll be facing Josh Rosen, who I admit is the best of the bunch, but I don't see him having the mindset to beat a Cal team who will be full invested in a win.

Now, you also have an advantage with Cal's under rated running team.  Patrick Laird has really come on to be a force.  They ran for 155 yards at Stanford last week and while Stanford has not had the best defense this year they are still much better than UCLA who ranks 119th in the country vs. the run.  This sets up well for Cal to not only stay in the game, but pull the upset as I think they will. 

Lions +3 4.4% POD

Bills +7 5.5% POD

Purdue +8 5.5% POD / Purdue +250 1% play

 Iowa just came off two gigantic games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. I don't know how they get up for this game to be honest and Purdue matches up well. Purdue also wants and needs this game more as they are 4-6 and need to win out to get into a bowl game. Jeff Brohm has Purdue competitive in just every game and I don't see any reason to believe that won't be the case here. I really don't think the line is right for this one. Iowa is -84 yards per game in conference play, but they have that big win against OHio State that nobody will forget. Purdue is just -2 yards per game in conference play and have a very good run defense. Iowa when held under 135 yards average only 13.25 points per game. I really think this Purdue team can keep Iowa's rushing totals in that area. There will be 19 mph winds and it'll be 40 degrees in this one making the running game that much more important so let's take a look at how these two match-up. Surprisingly Purdue has the better rushing offense and rushing defense. Purdue averaging 4.4 ypc and 4.34 in conference play they have the #11 offensive line in adjusted line yards. Iowa just 3.68 ypc and 3.58 in conference play ranking #74 on the offensive line. Defensively Purdue allowing just 3.71 ypc and 3.58 ypc in conference play while Iowa allowing 4.35 ypc and 4.44 in conference play. Purdue ranks #1 in adjusted line yards on the defensive side of the ball given their strength of schedule while Iowa ranks 108th. Iowa has faced an average rushing offense ranked 74th while Purdue has faced an average rushing offense ranked 48th. On the flip side Iowa has faced a stronger rushing defense average at #32 compared to Purdue at #55. At the end of the day these teams are both well coached, and this game means more to Iowa and we are getting over a TD against two teams where the game should be shortened. I wouldn't be shocked if Purdue pulls the upset here. 

Bills +130 5.5% NFL POD

Utah +1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I believe Utah is floating under the radar from their 4 game losing streak earlier in the year.  We backed them last week, and they really seem to find their grove in the second half.  Now that their QB Tyler Huntley has been back a full 3 games and they have an extra day to prepare for this game I think they will be in good shape.  Utah's offense can do some really good things and Washington State's defense has really struggled on the road of late, and against mobile QB's this year.  Huntley just put up 93 yards rushing in his last game, and he's an accurate passer to go along with a weapons in the backfield in Moss, and Darren Carrington at WR who will be back for this game.

Washington State typically struggles with physical teams, and they are not used to playing in this environment where Kyle Whittingham typically upsets a ranked team each and every year.  In Utah's 5 losses they allowed 5.80 ypc and in their wins 2.96 ypc.  Washington State does not have the ability to run and balance their offense this year it's been all in the passing game which is a bad match-up for them because Utah is ranked #24 vs. the pass.  Washington State's running game is ranked 126th and is averaging just 2.3 ypc on the road.  The extra day of prep will allow this Utah defense to scheme to put Washington State in some third and long situations which typically does not bode well for them.  They have turned the ball over 23 times this year and I could see a few more in this game.

Utah should also have the edge in special teams where they rank #17 to Washington State's 106th ranking.  Add it all up and I like how Utah looks to finish the year and they also need the wins to get into a bowl game. 

Titans -3.5 5.5% POD

Oklahoma +105 5.5% play of the day

This is by far the best offense that Oklahoma State has faced.  Baker Mayfield is a beat with his 23 passing TD’s and just 3 INT’s and I love how fiery he is in games.  He really gets his team fired up.  IT was obviously when they went on the road and defeated Ohio State that they were the better team in that game.  I just think this team loses focus at times and we can be assured that doesn’t happen in their biggest game of the year.

For Oklahoma State they have probably looked worse in games than they are.  Mason Rudolph has had some struggles with the injuries to the offensive line.  It’s said that they are as healthy as they have been in a while on the offensive line, but that can certainly change in a heart beat as this team does not have a lot of depth there.

Oklahoma’s defense is capable of shutting teams down when they want to.  They can also play ball control, and are getting their RB Abdul Adams back who is fully healthy and averaging 10.4 yards per carry.  Oklahoma State has allowed 3 teams to run for more than 200 yards so they are vulnerable there and every team is vulnerable against Baker Mayfield.  I just think the wrong team is favored here and I’ll take Oklahoma on the money line to win and stay in the college football race. 

Northern Illinois +8.5 5.5% POD

Northern Illinois has faced 5 top 76 teams compared to Toledo’s 2.  They both fared similarly against Eastern Michigan at home, and overall I would say these two teams are about even with their strengths and weaknesses.  I’d say the biggest advantage in this game is Northern Illinois rushing offense against Toledo’s rushing defense which ranks 104th.  Northern Illinois has been able to run the ball much better since Freshman QB Marcus Childers has taken over and he’s only getting better.  Childers just had a good game passing the ball as well against Eastern Michigan who ranked #32 vs. the pass.  The advantage that Toledo has in this game is certainly with their special teams that ranks 7th compared to Northern Illinois at 116.  However, Carey is a good coach and I think he’ll be looking hard at that this week.

Northern Illinois is not as skilled on offense as Toledo who can run and pass the ball, but their defense and rushing offense should control this game.  Northern Illinois defense ranks #6 vs. the run and they have faced an average opponent ranking 87th.  However, against Boston College, Nebraska and San Diego State they only allowed 293 yards and 2.23 ypc.  They actually played up to their competition and I expect them to step up against Toledo.  Now there is no question neither one of those teams has a Logan Woodside at QB – 19TD/2INT’s on the season so let’s look at that.

Woodside has actually gotten the majority of those stats against defenses ranking 127, 126, 77th, 119 – 16 TD/ 2INT.  Against passing defenses in the same caliber as Northern Illinois (13, 32, 15), Northern Illinois ranks #22.  He completing 60.7% of his passes 240 yards per game, 3 total TD’s 0 INT’s.  Northern Illinois can actually get to the QB much like Miami as they rank 19th in the country in sack %.  I expect Woodside to put up a lot of yards like he has against quality defenses, but struggle in the red zone.  It’s worth noting he just lost his top target Cody Thompson in the last game for the season and this offense has only scored TD’s 50% of the time in the red zone.  Northern Illinois defense is allowing only 33% TD percentage in the red zone.  Compare it with Northern Illinois 58% on offense, and Toledo’s alarming 80.95% TD’s allowed in the red zone.  Northern Illinois is also top 25 in big plays allowed.

The only reason Toledo is favored here is because their only loss is against Miami, but they were blown out in that game.  Miami has played a lot of close games this year so that loss is a little more alarming.  Northern Illinois dominated their game on the road against San Diego State doubling them in yardage, but lost the game.  They lost by 3 to open the season against Boston College and are a play or two away from being undefeated and if that were the case we would have a +3 spread here.  Bottom line I think the coaching advantage is on Northern Illinois side.  Candle has done a great job with Toledo, but it’s been against a weak schedule.  Northern Illinois has actually dominated this match-up.  They lost by 7 last year in a down year, but had won 6 straight previously.  This will be a close game and come down to the wire with Northern Illinois having a chance to pull the outright upset!  The weather also favors Northern Illinois as it’s supposed to have a chance of rain and 10-15mph winds.  Northern Illinois has the more mobile QB, and the better defense here getting 8.5 points is a bargain when you consider bad weather wind+rain will lead to lower scores.

Lions +3 5.5% Pod +100

TCU -6.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

I liked the Horned Frogs here who are probably an unpopular favorite this week.  Iowa State has covered 3 straight weeks by 14+ points against the spread and are now ranked #25, but they are stepping up in class this week against TCU.

TCU’s attention is on Iowa State who they know are a threat to their college football playoff spot.  This team is well focused for this game and I think should hold Iowa State’s offense in check.  Kyle Kempt the walk on QB for Iowa State has completed 70% of his passes 7TD’s and 1 INT, but has gone against the 97th, 129th, and 87th ranked pass defenses.  Here he will face TCU who ranks #32 overall, but are also dominant vs. the run and are holding opponents to 47.6% completion percentage.  That’s key here as Iowa State has been unable to run the ball consistently.  TCU should have a good defensive game plan here.

TCU has been very good on the road and I have to admit that Kenny Hill has been impressive in a balanced offense.  Iowa State has also benefited from facing teams with poor special teams rankings.  Oklahoma 123rd, Texas Tech 91st, and Kansas 110th.  This week they face TCU who is ranked #2 in special teams.  They also face off in a game where they don’t have the coaching edge.  I really like Matt Campbell, but Gary Patterson is simply one of the best. 

Cleveland Browns +6 5.5% NFL POD

Michigan +9.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Michigan is getting a lot of points in this one in my opinion and Harbough has only lost 7 games since he’s been at Michigan and they have been all close besides a loss to Ohio State, a team that went onto win the National Championship.  Otherwise his losses have been by 4, 1, 1, 3, 4, and 7. 

Michigan can shut down Barkley in this game as they are the #5 run defense.  We saw Indiana shut down Barkley recently holding this offense to 39 rushing yards.  The same Indiana defense that just gave up 271 to Michigan.  Actually, I think Michigan might have found confidence and a running game in that game a week ago with Kavan Higdon 25 rushes for 200 yards.  That was against Indiana with the #22 defensive line, #48 in power success defense.  Now Michigan although going on the road could have some success running the ball as they face Penn State who ranks 37th in defensive line, but an alarming 104th in power success defense.  Look at the offenses Penn State has faced from a rushing ypc perspective – 116, 118, 108, 98, 103, and 100.  They gave up 150+ yards 3 times.  Nobody likes to run the power run game more than Harbough and that will allow him to keep this game close in my opinion.

Penn State has also only faced one defense ranked in the top 50 in passing defense and that was Iowa.  They nearly lost on the road against Iowa it took a beautiful, if not lucky pass by McSorley on the road to pull the 21-19 victory over Iowa.  Iowa actually not one of those teams that Penn State faced with a good run defense.  I’ve heard many say that if you like Michigan parlay it with the under, but this total is very low.  I expect Michigan to have success on offense in their power running game while Penn State should have success in the passing game.  McSorley is very under rated, and has good receivers and a TE target that Michigan has not seen yet.  When it’s all said and done I feel it comes down to a field goal and Penn State will pull it off, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see it go the other way. 

Houston -3 4.4% NCAAF POD

Memphis ranked #25 and is a dog here this week.  We have seen this before as Memphis will likely get much of the money leading up to kickoff.  However, looking at the adjusted statistic ratings as well as the efficiency ratings combined has Houston as the #26 team, and Memphis as #57.. Yet the Oddsmakers are calling this a pk on a neutral field?  Houston also has the benefit in this game of being at home having just played on Saturday while Memphis was in a tough match-up against Navy and pulled the upset.  1, it's not easy traveling on short rest in college football, 2, it's not easy playing the next week after the triple option, 3, it's not easy after getting a huge win like that game against Navy as Memphis is in a major letdown spot even though they are playing this game with a chance to get to the AAC Title game.

Houston wants revenge for losing last year in this one and the only reason they are short favorites is the perception of the offenses.  Memphis has a dynamic offense, but they have ran it up against bad defenses.  Their adjusted efficiency offense is actually ranked #74, and they are stronger passing the ball.  Their QB Riley Fergusson is not 100% and he goes up against Houston's defense that has already played 3 top 50 passing offenses and held Texas Tech & Arizona to season lows in points.  They actually rank 14th in opposing QB rating and it's just not a good match-up for Memphis.  Also worth noting that when Houston lost last year it was on the road and it came after an upset of Louisville who was ranked in the top 5 at the time.

For Houston the key match up is going up against this Memphis defense which is actually better than the stats suggest.  I'm not lost in that as they rank 34th in adjusted defense.  However, their weakness comes against the run where they rank 93rd overall in rushing yards per carry.  They rank 113th in power success rate defense.  Houston should be able to play to their strengths which is a big key for them winning a game.  Houston averages 4.93 ypc in their wins, and 3.28 ypc in their losses this year.  last year they were also +1.24 ypc in their wins and the year before +1.69.  It's no secret what their key to victory is and it seems like they should have enough success on Thursday night at home.  Memphis has allowed 6.23 ypc in their two road games and they have allowed everyone to rush for more than 4.62 ypc with the exception of LA Monroe, and FCS foe Southern Illinois.

Line value?  We talk about this along with perception on our podcast and we certainly have it here with Houston losing to Tulsa 45-17 last week after Tulsa had lost 3 in a row.  Houston was only out gained in that game by 12 yards, but turned the ball over far too many times.  Tulsa was also desperate for a win after facing 3 option teams in a row.

Browns +10 5.5% POD

Vanderbilt +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Vanderbilt just had a brutal stretch of games facing Alabama, Florida and Georgia and they were outrushed in those games 1,137 to 150.  We know Vanderbilt is not as good on defense this year, but they have been better offensively.  Getting beat up in the trenches the last three weeks they have actually stayed healthy.  Now they face a team in Ole Miss who is averaging 2.88 yards per carry and has just 380 yards on the season eclipsing 100 just one time with 102 in game 1.  Ole Miss defense has been awful against the run allowing 5.57 yards per carry and 160+ in each game including their game against FCS foe Tenn-Martin.

Vanderbilt is desperate for a win here if they want to go bowling.  Ole Miss really has nothing to play for with their self-bowl ban.  They actually just played Alabama and Auburn, two top 10 teams, and now they face Vanderbilt at 3:30.  Not that exciting if you ask me, but this is a game Vanderbilt won last year 38-17 at home as a 10 point dog.  In that game they ran for 208 yards and 3 TD’s and I expect them to finally get back to running the football here after facing three top 25 run defenses and Florida on the road they’ll get to face Ole Miss ranking #122.  With a working running game Kyle Schurmur who has been very good this year with 12 TD’s 1 INT should be even better as Vanderbilt cruises in this game. 

Ole Miss does have a flashy QB in Shea Patterson, but he’s thrown 6 interceptions in 5 games and Vanderbilt’s defense is far better vs. the pass than the run which is Ole Miss strength.  Vanderbilt’s pass defense has only allowed 5 TD’s and 5 INT’s, and they are top 40 in nearly every passing defense stat.  I just think this is a better matchup for Vanderbilt who comes into this game healthier than they probably thought they would be after a stretch of 3 brutal games.  Now they face a team that if they come out strong should give up and allow Vanderbilt to cruise to an easy victory. 

Dolphins -110 5.5% pod

Oregon +120 5.5% POD @ 8PM ET

I’ll take the Ducks here.  For some reason I can’t get Washington State’s game at home against Boise State out of my mind and how it took a miracle for them to come back in that game.  I understand Luke Falk went down early in that game, but Boise also lost their starter in that game.  Washington State trailed 31-10 with then minutes to go in that game before taking the game in OT.  Let me remind you that Boise State got blown out at home against Virginia 2 weeks ago.  We were on that game.  Why is a #11 ranked team only a short favorite on the road against a team that just lost their QB?

This is Washington’s first road game of the season after pulling off a major upset over USC who really has not played up to expectations this year and went into Washington with a ton of injuries.  This is a major hang over spot here and I like what I have seen from Oregon.  Oregon will be without their starting QB, but I like their ability to run the ball and now they are adding in a mobile QB in Alie or the freshman Braxton Burmeister.  I’m sure both will see time.  Boise State’s QB Cozart rushed for 72 yards in that game at Washington State and I expect a big game on the ground for Oregon in order ot take advantage of Washington’s State’s size on the defense.  It doesn’t hurt that they’ll get Royce Freeman back for this game either.

The other reason I like Oregon here is because of the defense.  One of the worst defenses last year and they have dramatically improved under Jim Leavitt, which is no shock.  Leavitt has this team playing great ranking 12th in sack % as they have 20 on the year a big key to stopping this Washington State offense which is more one dimensional this year.  Washington State really hasn’t been able to run the ball and if you bring a one dimensional attack up against a very good defensive coordinator like Leavitt you will not have a great game.  Leavitt, the DC at Colorado the last few years turned that defense around and is doing it quicker here at Oregon.  Colorado held Falk to less than a 50% completion percentage last year and picked him off.  Oregon State also allowing just 25% on third down, and the run defense is allowing just 2.62 ypc so there are no glaring weaknesses like in years past.

Chargers -1.5 5.5% POD

Northern Illinois +10.5 5.5% POD

This is a difficult situation for San Diego State here coming off three big wins by 10 points or less.  This is a definitely sell high situation here.  Also San Diego State has to be a bit tired after these three games they played Stanford, followed by Air Force’s cut blocking and a 90 minute weather delay.  Meanwhile, Northern Illinois comes into this game fresh and healthy off a bye.

These two met a year ago with San Diego State winning 42-28 on the road, but it was far closer than he final indicated and I feel like Northern Illinois can hang with San Diego State here.  Northern Illinois is allowing just 2.24 ypc and their pass defense has 6 interceptions allowing just 2 passing TD’s and they haven’t allowed any big plays.  San Diego State’s head coach Rocky Long said it last week.  They need a passing game to set up a running game.  Early in the game against Air Force they could not pass because of the weather and San Diego State trailed 9-0.  After the 90 minute delay they opened up with play action and were able to score points in their 28-24 win.  Against Northern Illinois I don’t believe they will have that opportunity.  As crazy as it is to say.  Northern Illinois is the best defense they have faced all year ranking 9th in yards per play allowed.  San Diego State has faced off against 85, 95, and 100th ranked defenses.

The other thing to note here are both teams play extremely slow and lean on the run first.  Which typically means the clock will move and there will be a limited number of plays.  10 points mean much more in those type of games.  Northern Illinois out of the MAC has been competitive in all their games this year.  The MAC has gone 12-13 since 2010 vs. the Mountain West so this should set up to be a good game.  Northern Illinois is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 as a road dog.   

USC -3.5 4.4% POD

This is a buy low situation with USC if one exists.  Public perception is super low with this team based on how they played against Texas, and Cal the last two weeks.  I think this USC team is a team that will play up with the competition it faces.  We saw it in their most challenging game against Stanford as they steam rolled them at home.  Now, I have not been high on this team and you have even heard me bashing QB Sam Darnold on my podcast.  However, it just seems liket he right time to buy in on USC when everyone else is selling.  Let’s get into the match up.

First of all on paper it looks like Washington State has a great defense, but they have faced offenses who are ranked 92nd, 93rd, and 104th in yards per play offense.  Overall they have faced the 112th ranked strength of schedule compared to USC’s #12 ranked schedule.  I’m not buying Washington State as a top 25 team.  This team did not have to face USC a year ago, and when they stepped up against the best in the conference they lost big to Colorado by 14, and Washington by 28.  I see more of the same their offense is actually worse than it was a year ago, because they have been completely one dimensional averaging 2.81 ypc and throwing the ball 70% of the time.  That falls into USC’s strengths on defense.  They are a solid defense in the red zone and they rank 20th in opponent QB rating, 42nd in sack % and 12th in completion % allowed.  They are talented enough to get to Luke Faulk with a 3 or 4 man rush on Friday night.

When USC has the ball Washington State is in trouble.  They will be facing USC who does have a balanced offense that can hurt you with the run and the pass.  They haven’t seen that from any of the opponents they faced.  When the faced Boise they knocked out Brett Rypien and they still struggled and need a late 4th quarter come back to win that game.  They were so lucky to even win that game as a 13 point favorite as Boise State had a 31-10 lead in that game in the 4th quarter.  Boise State statistically appears to have a good defense, but we all know they are over rated there as well.  Boise held them to 4.84 yards play and averaged 5.57 themselves.  Boise deserved to win that game and that tells you all you need to know about this game in my opinion.  Granted I know Luke Faulk missed that game as well, but Boise also lost their starting QB and there is more of a drop off from Rypien to Cozart than there is with Falk to Hillinski and Falk still played half of the game.

At the end of the day USC is now hearing doubts from everyone in the media and this just feels like a game on a Friday night on ESPN that they will look to dominate.

Bills +3.5 5.5% POD

Miami Ohio +100 5.5% POD

The Red Hawks are flying under the radar.  They closed last season with 6 straight wins, but some bad luck in the Marshall game to start the year and a tough loss this past weekend against Cinci leaves this team with plenty of value for week #4.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country with 17 returning starters and their defense is tops in the MAC a year ago returns 8 starters and already looks the part.

Central Michigan has put up some points, but have also given up plenty.  They gave up 27 and 470 yards to a very bad Kansas team.  Their strengths are passing the ball, and defending the pass, but I see Miami Ohio’s pass defense which is among the best in the country shutting Shane Morris down.  This is a one dimensional team right now and Miami Ohio is too good of a defense not to shut it down.  Central Michigan even with their success has only converted 25% on third down and have actually struggled in the red zone as well. 

Miami Ohio’s offense at some point has to step up and I think now that MAC play has started it’s almost like a fresh start.  Gus Ragland had 15 TD’s and only 0 INT’s in MAC play a year ago including a 4TD performance against Central Michigan.  I expect Miami Ohio to play their best game here and get a very big win to start MAC play. 

Utah -3 buy ½ point -130 5% NCAAF POD

To me there is no doubt that Utah is the better team and has the better coach in this game as Kyle Whittingham is a coach I would take over most.  It seems like this team finally found it’s QB in Tyler Huntley who I believe is just getting started.  Now there have been times where this offense has looked a bit off so far this season with 22 penalties in their first two games, but last week they only had 6 and they continue to improve.  Huntley provides that elusive run pass offense and he is a killer in the running game.  Arizona really hasn’t faced a QB That can run like this since Marcus Mariotta.  Huntley is also completing 72% of his plays for 7.8 yds/att and was impressive against a very good BYU defense completing 28-37 for 314 passing yards and the big key, 0 INT’s!

Arizona just came off 63 points, but that was against UTEP and it was in misleading fashion.  They barely eclipsed 500 yards, and benefited from playing a depleted UTEP team and had an average starting field position of the 39.7 yard line.  That won’t happen against the Utes who have a top 10 special teams unit each of the last three years and probably the best punter in Mitch Wishnowsky.  Arizona ranked 115th in special teams last year.

The key of this game is whether or not Utah can stop the run.  That’s really what drives the success of Arizona’s offense.  Utah allowing under 2 yards per carry so far this season and while this is their most difficult test I think they are up for it.  Arizona already showed issues running the ball against Houston with only 3.90 ypc and I feel like Utah will be able to get an early lead forcing Arizona out of that game plan which will lead to some Utah turnovers.  Utah has already forced 9 in three games.

So why is this spread only 3 points?  Arizona really has not hit their stried yet.  Their 19-13 victory over BYU was extremely misleading and doesn’t look impressive considering how bad BYU has played.  However, I think BYU always gets up for Utah and even then they were losing 16-0 in the third and it could have easily been 31-0.  They still had their starting QB and Utah left a ton of points out there as they struggled in the red zone, but were moving the ball well against BYU.  Utah, I think will have success moving the ball, will have the field position edge and I think their offense is only getting better.  They will limit their penalties and be better in the red zone.  Arizona has played good red zone defense, but against who?  The last two years Arizona has allowed over a 70% TD percentage.  

Florida +5.5 5.5% POD

You may be able to wait and pick up a +6, but I don’t think you need to.  This spread has moved in our favor due to many Florida player suspensions which we have been aware of and always back a team that has to rally together.  Jim McElwain is an extremely under rated head coach and I mentioned this was a game I circled in the off season.  Michigan has just 5 returning starters, and this is the time you want to face an inexperienced team.

Florida will be without a few starters, but I recall teams being able to rally and play and win as bigger under dogs.  We backed Minnesota last year in the bowl game against Washington State as a 10 point dog.  They won 17-12 and held a potent Washington State team to 6 points until late in the game.  Florida was also in a similar situation last year against LSU and they were able to come out with a win on the road by the score of 16-10.  If anything this game just gave us 2 points of value and I already felt like Florida should be favored.

Florida has 14 returning starters and 9 on offense, but will be shorthanded without Antonio Callaway, and Jordan Scarlett at RB.  I’m not really worried as Florida has plenty of talent to pull from and I am more confident by the fact that they have their most experienced offensive line in years with 63 starts led by Martez Ivey second team ALL-SEC..  Felieipe Franks (#6 QB out of HS), the red shirt freshman will make the start at QB, and Malik Zaire will probably get some playing time and is a threat to run.  Defensively this team returns just 5 starters, but as I mentioned Michigan returns just 1.  Florida’s starters returning is also a bit misleading as this defense experienced a crazy amount of injuries on their defense a year ago leading to more guys getting experience that will help them in this game.

It’s worth noting Florida lost to Michigan in their bowl game in 2015, but the SEC is 22-11 against the Big Ten since 2010 outscoring them 30.9 to 21.1.  The Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. 

Oregon State +4 4.4% NCAAF POD

The first match up of the 2017 season falls between Pac 12 and the Mountain West.  Both teams are really in similar situations as you have Oregon State and Gary Anderson in his third year while you have Colorado State’s Mike Bobbo in his third year.  Bobbo and Colorado State have gone to back to back bowls and really lit it up down the stretch.  They come into this game with a ton of hype with their new stadium, and how they finished last year and all that tells me is that we have an inflated line.

Colorado State returns 14 starters while Oregon State returns 15.  The 2 and 5 year recruiting rankings are in favor of Oregon State 43/49 to 69/79 so Oregon State should really be favored and when you look at the front lines of both teams I love the value we are getting here with Oregon State.  The Beavers have improved each of the last two years on offense and defense and I think it’s finally time for them to take the next step and get back to a bowl game.  Their offense improved by over a TD last year and they return both Nall and Pierce who both averaged over 5 yards per carry.  Along with the RB’s they return 3 QB’s with starting experience, but in this game they can really lean on the run.

When you look at both teams they are very good at running the ball, but very bad at stopping it a year ago.  Oregon State #32nd in running the ball while Colorado State was #24, but Colorado State faced only 4 teams in the top 50 in stopping the run while Oregon State faced 7.  Defensively Oregon State faced 4 top 30 running teams on their way to struggling ranking 90th.  Colorado State was not any better at 91st andt hey faced just 2 teams in the top 30.  They gave up 200+ yards rushing 9 times last year and Oregon State went 4-0 when they could run the ball and control the line of scrimmage.

Both teams come in with their most experienced teams in three years.  I like what Oregon State has along the defensive line and I see them improving more as they return all of their starters on the defensive line and add in Michigan State/JUCO transfer Craig Evans who is a330lb linemen.  Compare that with Colorado State who on paper have 3 returning starters, but lost 3 defensive tackles and a DE.  Depth is definitely a factor here. 

You also have to handicap the fact that Colorado State will face Colorado the following week their instate rival.  They definitely can’t help but look ahead to that game that means a lot more than this game.  Oregon State has a tough schedule and would love to start the season 2-0 with Portland State on deck.   Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Mountain West (losers to Boise last year) and in case you are wondering the PAC 12 IS 49-17 since 2010 against the Mountain West while outscoring opponents by 13.4ppg.  In fact they have averaged over 34 ppg each of the last 4 years.