Cappers Sports Picks

Phillies -117 (4.5 * MLB POD) Tim Hudson makes the start for the Braves and he has not started in Philly since 2007 where the Braves are 3-7 in their last 10. Hudson is also 3-7 in his last 10 road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Hudson has also struggled in September over the last few years with a 4.73 ERA. He struggles big time vs. Ryan Howard who just happens to be on fire at the moment. Howard is 14-47 with 6 HR's off Hudson and this last week he's 9-26 with 4 HR. Mayberry also is 2-2 with 2 HR vs. Hudson and is hitting well right now. Hudson goes up against the much younger Vance Worley, but the Braves offense is beatable scoring just 3.22 runs per 9 over their last 5 games total. He has a 5-0 record with a 1.96 ERA at home and is 8-0 with a 1.51 ERA during night starts this year. Phillies have just been great at home and are 38-18 in their last 56 vs. RH starters and 16-2 in Worley's last 18 starts. Hudson has not pitched as well on the road and he hasn't pitched in this ball park very often having 7 straight home starts vs. the Phillies this should be very different and a playoff like atmosphere.

Tigers +107 *4* MLB POD - Cubs -138 2.5* bonus Love the Tigers today. Fister's 4 starts vs. the Indians this year have resulted in a 2.35 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP and he doesn't have to face Shin Soo Choo who was 8-16 off him in his career. Fister also has pitched well during day games. The Indians starter can't say the same as Jimenez has 9 da starts with a 7.04 ERA this year and the Tigers who are red hot have a .931 career OPS vs. him. Jackson, Cabrera, Young, Peralta, and Martinez are a combined 20-44 for a .455 average off Jimenez and they are scoring 7.55 runs per 9 overall in their last 10 games while the Indians are at 3.70.

4** NCAAF POD
smu +15.5 (4* NCAAF POD) This is a much under rated SMU squad that's been to back to back bowl games and returns a ton of talent including QB Kyle Padron and C-USA leading rusher Zach Line. Sure Texas A&M is loaded with talent with Tannenhill and Fuller, but the defense lost their two best players. I think SMU can stay within striking distance and their defense is very under rated.

Dodgers -130 (4.5* MLB POD) Love the Dodgers here as they have won 6 in a row and 20 of their last 26 when they are favored. Clayton Kershaw so far to me is the Cy Young winner now he goes east in what might look like a start that does not matter, but it's going to be a big one on whether or not he can win the Cy Young facing a playoff team on the road. In 3 career starts vs. the Braves he's got a 2.42 ERA 25 K's in 22.1 IP with a WHIP under 1.00. Braves hitters have 60 career at bats and a .133 average vs. Kershaw and ironically for a playoff team are 29th in OPS vs. LHP this year. Those struggles are highlighted even more over their last 10 as they have a .185 average vs. LHP. Dodgers are scoring 6.64 runs over their last 10 games vs. RHP and continue to be hot as they face rookie Randall Delgado. Delgado looks to have solid stuff at 21, but he's just 21 and he's prone to walking guys and giving up HR's. He had a quality start but it was vs. the Giants in August. IN AAA/AA he has an ERA over 4 and is giving up more than 4 walks per game and nearly 2 HR. The Braves injuries I think are starting to have an impact on the bullpen and again they'll likely have to go to the bullpen early and that bullpen which is best in the majors has a 5.62 ERA over the last 5. Back to Kershaw we see he's got 100+ pitches in all of his last 10 starts, but the Dodgers are being smart giving him extra rest when they can as he's off 5 days rest today where the Dodgers are 16-5 in his last 21 on 5 days rest.

Rockies +135 (4* MLB POD) Corey Luebke since being a starter has pitched over his head with a 3.53 ERA at home even that's not enough to over come the Padres poor offense as they are ranked last vs. RHP in terms oOPS and last in terms of OPS at home with a .629. They'll face Alex White who is still very raw but had an ERA under 2 in the minors between the Indians and the Rockies. He made two impressive starts for the Indians vs. the Tigers and Angels two playoff teams as he went 6 innings in each giving up 2 ER and 3 ER his only mistakes were home runs which the Padres just are not going to hit. Luebke on the other hand who was out of the bullpen earlier this year has had starts against teams that just don't hit lefties well and as a starter he has not pitched that well and he's faced teams ranked 29th, 28th, 23rd, 19th, 18th, and 12th vs. LHP in terms of OPS. Now he faces the Rockies who are ranked 10th and have beat him up in the past as he posts a 1.86 WHIP and 7.45 ERA as he's given up 3 HR. Rockies are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings here and the Padres are just 5-22 in their last 27 games vs. NL west.

Georgia +3 -102 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I'll get to it right off the bat. Boise State has weaknesses this year. The right side of the offensive line (blind side) features two new sophmore starters. The key to disrupting Kellen Moore is pressure. Georgia also has a huge advantage in the secondary as they are deep and strong and the front 7 should be much better this year. Back to the secondary they go up against a Boise group that lost Titus Young and Austin Pettis who combined for more than 400 receptions and more almost 5,000 receiving yards 64 TD's in their careers. Georgia should be able to take advantage with their defense in this game especially if their athleticism up front gives Boise issues. Also Boise has inexperience in their secondary. Aarron Murray is ready after 24 TD's and just 8 interceptions a year ago with 61% completion rate. If Georgia can run the ball too they win this game but Boise is very strong against the run though they gave up 269 to Nevada and 250 to Utah State down the stretch so they can be run on and Georgia's offensive line is much bigger than the Dline of Boise... Look for this to be a key in the 2nd half. Lastly Georgia has the best special teams in the nation and it can be a huge advantage in what I think will be a lower than expected scoring game. They feature the best kicker in Blair Walsh and Georgia was also 19th in turnover margin something that led Boise to winning at Virginia Tech a year ago 33-30. Boise was really lucky to win that game and I expect Georgia to be a little more ready knowing how big this game is. Note Boise is 0-4 vs. the SEC. Their non-conference schedule is still weak looking back at previous 3 years and all the success. I mean they had Vtech and Oregon state out of the ACC and the Pac 10 and Oregon the year before, but overall those conferences are not the SEC. Boise always has a weak schedule we are just stating the fact and I think Boise will not be as good as last year's team with the 3 glarring weaknesses on the blind side of offensive line, the inexperience wide receivers (good Georgia secondary), and the inexperience in Boise's secondary (Aarron Murray accurate passer can take advantage).

Baylor +4 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Love Baylor here. TCU dominated them 45-10 in week 3 last year so this is a big revenge game for Baylor. Robert Griffith is a dark horse for the Heismann and he returns 4 of his top 5 receivers along with an offensive line that has been building to this point. TCU on the other hand lost 26 letterman including 3 of their top 4 receivers and QB and 4 of their 5 regulars on the defensive front. Baylor did not turn the ball over against TCU last year despite the loss and Grifftith threw 67% completion rate overall last year and I expect him to be able to move the ball a little bit on a rebuilding TCU team. While they held Baylor to 99 yards rushing a year ago I think Baylor may go through the air a little bit more early in this game. Defensively I think Baylor is going to have a better year because it could not get any worse. First things first they face a sophmore QB in Casey Pachall making his first start. Now he's supposed to be better than Dalton and I believe we'll see that before the year is out, but right now I think Baylor has the advantage despite the secondary being their weak link. The old TCU assistant takes over as defensive coordinator and put in a 4-2-5 scheme. Watch out for Baptise 335 lbs commanding double teams allowing the Baylor linebackers to come up and stop runs. Baylor looked like a completely different team at home and as home dogs on revenge I can't help but back them in this spot.

Red Sox -118 (5.5* MLB POD) Rangers took a big blow to their line up when they lost Nelson Cruz they have dropped down vs. LHP as they are now 5th while Boston who will also face a lefty are #2 in the league and have been even better at home vs. LHP scoring 6.69 runs per 9 wiht a .312 average at home. Cruz was hitting .344 vs. lefties and Andrew Miller won't have to face him as he makes his second start vs. the Rangers the first one just a few weeks ago 6.1 innings 3 hits, 2 walks 1 ER. Texas since losing Cruz have struggled over their last 10 games they are hitting .208 with just 2.54 runs per 9 vs. LHP. The bullpen has struggled to with a 4.75 ERA over that period. While the Red Sox coming off a loss last night have a .302 average vs. LHP over their last 10 games with a 3.77 bullpen, but Texas on the road has a .244 average and just 3.81 runs per 9 vs. LHP so big advantage to the Red Sox. Holland has not pitched well in August over his career and at 163 innigns pitched it's the most he's ever pitched. Expect them to go to that bullpen and be extremely conservative with him. Rangers are 2-12 when Hollans is a +150 or less under dog in his last 14 while the Red Sox are 26-10 in their last 36 vs. LH starters and 39-16 in their last 55 vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

ANGELS -161 4* MLB POD
Not much on the card today but we'll come with this play late after losing 2 of 3 to the Mariners to open the series the Angels who are still in a playoff race turn to ERvin Santana to try to even up the series and I think they well as they face off against lefty Furbush who is 1-6 with a 5.65 ERA during night starts with a 1.72 WHIP. Furbush had a start vs. the Angels giving up 5 hits 1 walk and 3 ER in just 4.2 IP vs. the Angels this year. Santanna has dominated this team and the Mariners though are swinging the bats well right now showed signs of cooling down last night. They are 29th vs. RHP in OPS and are one of the worst home hitting teams. Angels are 48-22 in their last 70 meetings and the Angels over the last 10 games vs. LHP are scoring 6.34 runs per 9 with a .314 average. I expect them to come up with a big win here today as the Angles are 9th vs. LHP in ops this year.

Idaho -6 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
It will be a repeat of the Humanitarian bowl won by Idaho in 2009 the only previous match up between these too. Bowling Green was in a rebuilding year last year but they still return one of the youngest rosters in college football with 54 freshmen or red shirt freshmen and 27 sophmores or red shirt sophomores. This team last year struggled big time on defense in both stopping the run and pass. They lack size and add in that they just were not very good on special teams and this team has nothing to do but improve, but I like Idaho out of the WAC. They had a disappointing year last year and gave up a bunch of sacks (main issue) with 45 sacks to QB

Indians -125 (4.5* MLB POD); Jimenez has looked solid in his home starts vs. the Indians as he's got 15 innings pitched 14 baserunners and 1 ER. HIs two home starts were against the Royals and the Tigers ranked 5 and 9th in OPS vs. RHP so very impressed by those numbers. Now he faces Oakland who has a 23rd rank OPS and have never seen Jimenez. Oakland on the road just .244 vs. RHP wiht 3.72 runs per 9 will face Cleveland with Harden on the mound who the Indians have a .333 average and 1.283 OPS vs. him. They are scoring nearly 5 runs per game at home vs. RHP. Oakland also has a 7.33 bullpen ERA over their last 10 games and are 17-39 in their last 56 road games vs. RH starters whiel the Indians are 43-17 in their last 60 overall as favorites.

Brewers -147 (4.5* MLB POD) Do the Brewers ever lose here? Now they get Edwin Jackson who in his last start at Milwaukee as he threw 7 innings gave up 14 hits and 8 ER. Collectively the Brewers have 98 AB and a .306 average .938 OPS vs. Jackson who does have good stuff. Brewers are just a different animal at home this year. Marcum has a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Cardinals are 5-14 in their last 19 as a dog. Cards have just a .245 average vs. him and a .591 OPS with Berkman and Pujols a combined 2-19. Milwaukee is 7-1 in their last 8 home vs. the Cards and are hitting more than 1.5 runs per game than the Cardinals in the last 10 games. I expect the Brewers to continue what they are doing and dominate as Jackson really has not pitched well outside Busch Stadium since being acquired by the Cardinals.

Phillies -141 (4.5* MLB POD); Phillies look to stay hot as they go on the road to face the Reds who gave us an early bird winner yesterday in extra innings. Phillies should be well rested and though the Reds are #2 in OPS vs. LHP which they will face in Cole Hamels on Monday I'll tell you why I still like the Phillies today. First of all the quality of LHP that the Reds have faced has not been there and not to often. This team has under 1000 AB's vs. LHP this year that's the least in the majors. Think about that most full time MLB players will have 500 AB themselves in a season and the Reds have only seen LHP 930 times in 2011. They've faced a lefty just 4 times in their last 27 games and those starters have been Ross Detwiler twice and WAndy Rodriguez and Wade Leblanc. The last 2 quality pitchers at Cole Hamels level they faced were David Price and Clayton Kershaw who combined for 15.2 IP and 3 ER or a 1.72 ERA. Hamels has arguably having a better year than both of those lefties and he's dominated the Reds in his career 9-0 with a 1.23 ERA. He's also got a 2.82 ERA on the road and 6-2 record while Homer Bailey has a 4.66 ERA at home and vs. the Phillies he has a 7.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 4 career start. The meat of the Reds line up Phillips, Renteria, Votto and Stubbs have a combined 12-75 with a .160 average vs. Hamels. Phillies have a .804 OPS combined vs. Bailey. Reds are just 2-9 in their last 11 vs. NL East with Bailey on the mound while the Phillies are 16-6 in their last 22 vs. RH starter. Reds also have a 5.28 bullpen over their last 10 games and that's been the main issue with this team and we saw it in extra innings on Sunday despite them pitching well we saw manager Dusty Baker hesitate with his bullpen in that game. Phillies are 29-11 in their last 40 vs. the NL Central with Hamels on the mound and their bullpen is plenty rested and their offense is plenty good of late hitting .277 over their last 10 games with 5.77 runs per 9 overall.

Diamondbacks -148 (4.5* MLB POD) Dbacks continue to win and it's been the pitching as the main reason. Now they get a home game vs. a lefty in Cory Luebke and they are 5-2 in their last 7 home vs. LH starter. Luebke has looked great as a rookie starter, but looked bad vs. the Diamondbacks at home where he gave up 3 HR 6 innings pitched 6 hits 2 walks and 4 ER. Luebke's numbers look better than they really are in my opinion because the teams he's been facing can't really hit lefty pitching as his last 5 opponents are ranked 18th, 22, 22, 25, and 24th, so it's not a shock he's putting up nice numbers. Padres had some hot bats, but now their bats have been struggling over the last 3 games hitting .189 with 18K's and 18 hits. Ian Kennedy is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA vs. the Padres over 5 career starts so I expect him to continue that domination as he's got 41 K's in 30 innings pitched and the Padres are hitting .194 with a .570 OPS with 67 at bats vs. Kennedy. Padres are 7-21 in their last 28 after their opponent allows 2 runs or less in prev game and are 34-76 in their last 110 visits to Arizona.

Tigers -125 (4.5* MLB POD) Rick Porcello has been way better on the road this year than he has been at home. He's also due for a quality start and that's something I think he'll get on Friday vs. the Twins who are one of the worst hitting teams vs. RHP they also just lost Thome on waivers they traded Delmon Young. Denard Span is on the DL, Mauer is not likely to play neither is Velencia and Kubel couldn't be claimed on waivers before the game. Yikes and not to mention they bring up Scott Diamond who has a 5.56 ERA in AAA this year to make a start. The Tigers have been hot with the bats and are 6th in the league with a .754 OPS vs. lhp this year. Tigers are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. the Twins and have a .197 average vs. RHP over their last 10 games and Porcello is 3-1 this year with a 3.42 ERA during the Twins this year over 4 starts.

Rangers -150 (5.5* MLB POD) Rangers RL +126 (2* BONUS) Love the Rangers to bounce back and win tonight's game after losing two times to the Sox over the past two days. First things first Red Sox have never faced Alexi Ogando who has been great at home which is hard to say in Texas as the RAngers have the best home OPS making it known this is a hitters park. But Ogando is 7-2 with a 3.33 ERA and is 10-3 with a 3.24 ERA during night starts. Red Sox can hit as they've shown in this series, but Ogando should have them under control early. Andrew Miller makes the start for the Sox and that's where my play really comes in because Miller has been awful, but nobody is noticing. Miller has a 4.99 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP it could totally be worse. IT's his first time facing the Rangers, but this is not a good spot for the youngster on the road vs. an angry Rangers team that at home is hitting .294 with 7.07 runs per 9 vs. LHP. I expect the Rangers to get 5 runs off him. Miller really has not faced any good teams that can hit lefties in his 9 starts with an average opponent ranked 16th in OPS vs. LHP. Only team he faced in the top 10 was the Rays and they knocked him around for 7 ER in just 2.2 IP. Look for the Rangers to get back in the win column they are #5 vs. LHP this year and as I mentioned they ironically hit lefties at home better than they hit righties. Miller pitching over his head which is obvious by his 5.55 BB/9 and low 6.10 K/9 ratio. Texas is 22nd in walks this year so they are very aggressive which I think might go on to hurt Miller here today because he's stressing throwing stirkes. look for him to leave a few over the plate to get a head of guys, but the Rangers lineup will be ready. Sox are 4-11 in their last 15 in Texas and the Rangers are 14-6 in their last 20 home vs. LH starters. Lastly Miller during night starts opponents are hitting .333 so it's not just the walks he has a 6.61 ERA during the night.

Brewers -139 (4.5* MLB POD) I like the Brewers here today big time especially following a loss to a team that is pretty much dead since the trade deadline and are just 11-43 in the Pirates last 54 meetings wiht the Brewers. I think the only reason the Brewers lost game #2 yesterday was because it's very hard to sweep a double header. Look for the Brewers to come back strong here they are 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Estrada has been solid for the Brewers as he went 5 innigns given up 1 base runner in his last start vs. the Pirates. If you take out his poor start on the road vs. the Braves and he has a 1.57 ERA over his last 4 starts. Brewers will face Ross Ohlendorf making his first start since April as he spent time in the minors this year and a 4.44 K/9 ratio and 2.96 BB/9 ratio in AAA is not going to get anyone out at this level especially the way the Brewers are hitting. Prince Fielder has 2 HR in 10 at bats off him and the Pirates are 8-19 in his last 27 starts.

Rangers -140 *5.5 MLB POD Rangers RL +150 2* PLAY Rangers were clearly looking ahead to this game after getting beat 10-0 yesterday. Now they return home where they have been dominant especially vs. LHP which is what they get on Monday when Erik Bedard comes to town. Bedard two solid starts v.s the Rangers this year but he has been pitching at home vs. the Rangers and pitching in Texas is a different story they lead the league in OPS at home with a .852 and vs. LHP they have a .298 average and 7.22 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home while the Sox have a .769 overall OPS on the road and vs. LHP just .234 with 4.04 runs per 9 vs. LHP which they'll face in CJ Wilson who has dominated them. Wilson has 1.35 ERA over 4 starts in his career vs. the REd Sox and he should have any easier time with the possibility of no Ellsbury and Ortiz and Youkilis already out of the middle of that line up. That's a huge advantage for Wilson who is 11-1 in his last 12 as a home favorite -110 to -150. Rangers overall are 22-7 in their last 29 as a home favorite. As I mentioned Bedard at Texas is a different story in his start this year it came in April in his first start of the year he gave up 5 runs in 5 IP including 2 hr in his start before that he gave up 11 base runners over just 2 innings giving up 6 ER.

Rangers -126 *4.5* MLB POD Rangers lost yesterday which was a rare thing, but I see them bouncing back on Sunday when they send Holland to the mound the lefty has dominated on the road and during day starts. In fact the Rangers have the #1 DAY ERA and Holland has a 2.59 ERA while the team overall has a 2.96 ERA. Rangers bats are #3 vs. RHP which they will face on Sunday as the White Sox are 20th with a sub .700 OPS vs. lefties. Gavin Floyd makes the start and he is 1-4 vs. Rangers over his career wtih a 6.04 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He's also struggled during day starts and at home where he carries a 7.15 ERA and a 5.09 ERA during the day. Rangers have a .802 OPS vs. Floyd over 103 AB's and are 27-9 in their last 36 vs. RH starter. White Sox struggle at home .244 3.52 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home this year and when Floyd is a dog the Sox are 7-16 in their last 23 games. Floyd also is not a very good anchor pitcher as the Sox are 4-17 in his last 21 game 3 starts. Lastly I like that the Rangers are coming off a loss yesterday and I think the value and the line is better than it should be considering the run the Rangers are on and I'll continue to say the Sox are over rated

Yankees -140 (4.5* MLB POD) AJ Burnett continues to get no respect and I don't blame the NY media, but he really has not been terrible. Burnett is due to have a dominant start and facing a team like the Twins who are 28th vs. RHP in terms of OPS are a good team to do that against. Not to mention that he is 6-0 vs. the Twins with the Yankees with a 2.20 ERA in 6 starts vs. the Twins. Yankees have dominated this team 61-19 in the last 80 meetings and I expect them to win here facing a lefty who they have dominated in Liriano. Yankees 22-5 in their last 27 vs. LH starters and 18-5 in Burnett's last 23 game #3 starts. Twins just 18-42 in their last 60 vs. AL east and 3-18 in their last 21 with Liriano vs. AL east. Liriano is actually 0-6 in 6 career starts giving up 38 hits 16 walks over 35 innings pitched good for a 1.54 WHIP which just won't get it done vs. a hot hitting Yankee team that is #1 in the league in OPS vs. LHP at .834. Yankees on the road this year .287 scoring 6.52 runs per 9 vs. LHP and have a 3.12 bullpen which gives them the advantage in that department too because the Twins have an ERA over 5 at home from their bullpen. Cano, Jeter, and Gardner are a combined 15-40 vs. Liriano so I'm confident as he has a 1.94 whip over his last 3 and a 3-4 record at home with a 5.83 ERA that the Yankees can get to him throughout this one.

Rangers -116 (5* MLB POD) Rangers are on fire they just took over the AL West and I'll continue to fade the White Sox as I do not think they are that good and even with Peavy who has had some poor luck on the mound looks like the White Sox advantage he is still not the same dominant pitcher. We have yet to see him dominate a line up other than the Twins who are 28th in OPS vs. RHP in the league now he faces #2 OPS vs. RHP team in the RAngers who have knocked him around in 2 starts since joining the White Sox 8 ER over just 5.1 innings on 11 hits and 6 walks. Hamilton, Andrus and Cruz are 9-17. Collectively they have 102 AB .294 average and .837 OPS. Meanwhile Matt Harrison keeps flying under the radar. The White Sox really struggle vs. lefties 20th in OPS this year and Harrison has a 1.29 ERA over his last 3 starts vs. the White Sox and they have just .212 average and .614 OPS vs. him. White Sox at home are scoring just 3.40 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Texas' bullpen has been solidified so they also hold an advantage there and are 26-9 in their last 35 vs. RH starter as the White Sox have not been a good home team 5-16 in their last 21 as a home dog.

Indians -111 (4* MLB POD) Masterson has been to good this year to not back him playing a White Sox team that has struggled vs. righties. Masterson is 5-4 with a 2.59 ERA on the road and a 2.41 ERA during night starts. His last 4 games at Chicago have resulted in a 1.59 ERA. The Indians are 38-14 in their last 52 as a favorite while the White Sox are 4-11 in their last 15 home games vs. a RH starter. They have a .247 average and .661 ops vs. Masterson over 178 AB. Phillip Humber is the real reason I got Cleveland here. I said he got lucky in who he was facing at home which led to his great first half. He's certainly come down to earth over his last 5 starts he's allowed 22 ER over just 29.1 IP while giving up a whopping 40 hits and 7 walks. That's a 6.75 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP which is just crazy to even think about here. Yes he had to face the Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees over those 5 starts and I said the reason he's been lucky was he was averaging an easy opponent at home, but vs. the Twins and Orioles who are ranked 28th and 13th vs. RHP he gave up 11 hits a piece 22 total over 9.2 innings while surrendering 10 ER. I think Humber is past what he can throw on a season but the Sox have no choice but to throw him out there. These two teams are pretty much even on everything else but the pitching match up heavily favors the Indians and we are not seeing it that way in the line.

Love the Rangers. Ervin Santana has been red hot of late giving up just 4 ER over his last 5 starts. I feel he is so past due for a bad start and wouldn't it be perfect against the scorching hot Rangers who are #2 in OPS vs. RHP and 22-7 in their last 29 vs. RH ptichers. Santana's last 3 vs. Texas resulted in a 7.79 ERA where as CJ Wilson has a 2.68 ERA on the road and in his last 6 vs. the Angels has a 5-1 record and 1.38 ERA. Angels have a .227 average and .652 OPS over 211 AB. Rangers have a .298 average and .828 OPS over 302 at bats vs. Santana. Cruz and Beltre have a total of 7 HR among them and Andrus, Young and Kinsler are a combined 52-135 good for a .385 average.

Cardinals -139 *4.5* MLB POD I love that the Cardinals are coming off a loss here as they really step it up in these situations .273 average 5.37 runs per 9 vs. RHP, and over his career Chris Carpenter has also stepped up when his team has needed him. Carpenter has dominated the Pirates over his career 12-2 in 17 starts where the Cardinals have gone 15-2 in those games with a 2.24 ERA. Since June 23rd he has a 7-1 record and a 2.60 ERA and though he makes a start on the road I"m confident he has a great advantage the Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. RH starter following a win they are scoring just 3.37 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Expect the Cardinals to get revenge on last night's loss. Jeff Karstens has dominated the Cardinals but is still jsut 1-2 in three starts from 2010 where he gave up 3 ER over 18 IP. That still leaves 1/3 of the game open to the bullpen as he's gone 6 IP in each start. Pirates have been great at home with their bullpen but over their last 10 games they have a 6.59 ERA. Karstens also has struggled of late 7.17 ERA over his last 3 and in the month of August his last 11 starts in this month along with 6 bullpen appearances over the last 3 years have resulted in an ERA over 5. Cardinals are not the same team he saw a year ago with Berkman this offense is the #1 OPS team vs. RH pitching in the National League with a .765 OPS while the Pirates who are also facing a righty are ranked 26th in the league with a .669. They've struggled to score runs at home and Carpenter will keep that under control. Cardinals are still in a race for the playoffs and they need this game.

gers -141 (4.5* mlb pod) Porcello off a poor start is bound to rebound as he should be fresh. His last 3 starts vs. the Twins has led to a 2.55 ERA and he's going up against them as the 28th ranked team in OPS vs. RHP. He goes up against Francsco Liriano who has had a nightmare vs. the Tigers. Tiger hitter have .337 average and .967 OPS in 187 at bats while the Twins are at .264 and .744 OPS vs. Porcello. Tigers also have the better bullpen coming into the game. Tigers are #6 vs. lhp this year .747 OPS and are 13-3 when Porcello is pitching vs. a losing team over his last 16. Twins are 3-12 in Liriano's last 15 starts vs. a winning team. Overall the Tigers who just made a trade for Delmon Young formerly with the Twins, and should have every advantage on Monday.

Rangers -124 (4.5* MLB POD); Rangers stay on fire and they'll need to do that Sunday too because the Angels are just 3 games out. They'll face a starter they had a year ago in Rich Harden who earlier in this year gave up 5 ER over 5 innings while giving up 8 hits and 2 walks for a 2.00 WHIP. He'll go up against Matt Harrison who has been dominant during day starts 4-2 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. His 5 career starts vs. the A's he has a 2.15 ERA and the A's are ranked 24th in OPS vs. LHP with a .678 while the Rangers are #2 vs. RHP with a .781. Texas has a .304 average and .884 OPS vs. Harden with Young/Hamilton/Moreland/Kinsler wiht a combined 18-47 off him. Harden has largely struggled during day games in the last 3 years he has 29 starts with a 4.61 ERA over 1.5 runs higher than his ERA during night starts. Texas is 24-6 in their last 30 as favorites 16-5 in their last 21 vs. AL west and Oakland is 15-31 in their last 46 as dogs.

Orioles +120 (4* MLB POD) Love the Orioles Jeremy Guthrie really has pitched better than his record has said. He gets a night start this time around where he has a 3.96 ERA on the year and he goes up against the Tigers who have hit a cold stretch with the bats just 3.47 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Baltiomore is also backed by a bullpen with a 2.06 ERA over the last 10 games and they are more than due for a win. Guthrie's last 2 starts vs. the Tigers has resulted in just 9 base runners over 15 innings pitched and 0 ER. I look for him to continue on that success and win this game as Max Scherzer has a 5.20 ERA on the road this year and Baltimore hits righties well at home 4.67 runs per 9 and collectively they have 70 at bats vs. Scherzer with a .343 average and .913 ops.

Red Sox - 151 (4.5* MLB POD) John Lackey has been red hot and the Red Sox are the best road team. Lackey got it done against the Yankees who hit righties a hell of a lot better than the Mariners who are 29th in the league in OPS .634 v. RHP. I love Lackey's history vs. the Mariners 9-2 with a 1.95 ERA over his last 12 and he's 5-0 with a 1.45 in his last 6 in Seattle. Red Sox are still one of the best hitting teams on the road vs. RHP scoring 5.47 runs per 9 while the Mariners are scoring just 3.25. I think the Red Sox crusie as they face Blake Beavan for a second time. They had 9 hits off him the first time and he's lucky to escape with just 3 ER. The rookie has an ERA under 3, but xfip is 4.28. He's only striking out 3.70 per 9 and he's been lucky with a .257 babip. He's going to come back down to life this is a guy that had a 4.45 ERA in AAA this year and a 6.47 last year.

Cardinals -126 (4.5* MLB POD) Chris Carpenter is one of those players I will back after having a bad outing vs. a team. Carpenter has had two bad starts against the red hot Brewers this year. Both were on the road ironically and Carpenter has been so much better at home this year with a 2.88 ERA. We backed Carp twice this year on MAX plays when he was coming off a rough start against that same team on the road in his previous start. He's a great pitcher to follow in that situation and he came up with gold so I can't help but to back him here on Thursday. Both starts he could not avoid the big inning. In his start in June he cruised through 5 innings giving up 1 ER and then 4 in the 6th. IN his start vs. the Brewers in July he cruised through 4 innings 0 ER and then gave up 5 earned runs. I think those are the type of things he can avoid pitching at home. He faces off against Gallardo who has a 4.14 ERA on the road. He was dominant in his one start vs. St. Louis but he had never won against them prior to that so I expect St. Louis to come out and avoid a sweep by the worst road team in the league that all of a sudden has found a way to win on the road. Gallardo has a 4.77 ERA in 8 career starts vs. the Cardinals. He is 5-18 in his last 23 road starts as a dog. Cardinals are scoring nearly a run better vs. RHP per 9 innings at home than the Brewers are on the road and have an ERA over a run out of their bullpen better at home than the Brewers have on the road. I think Carpenter will put some water on the Brewers fire tonight.

TIGERS +121 (4* POD) Love the pitching match up... We keep thinking Ubaldo Jimenez is going to be the guy from last year. His problem has been his control as he now has 9 walks in his last 3 starts. In his previous starts vs. the Tigers over 3 years he's been bad with a 5.63 ERA. His last 3 starts have not been good and I think he struggles again here as the Tigers have a combined 47 AB with a .362 average and .837 OPS. Much better than the Indians can sayagainst Rick Porcello who they have 139 AB with a .223 average and .636 ops against. Tigers are #8 vs. RHP in OPS and have lost 12 straigth against the Indians on the road..That record is so far due to die and I think it does here as the Tigers are 20-8 in Porcello's last 28 starts. He's 6-2 with a 3.65 ERA on the road and is 6-2 in 8 career starts vs. the Indians with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.64 ERA at Cleveland..

Blue Jays -137 (4.5* MLB POD) Love Cecil here he has a 2-0 record 1.64 ERA and 0.95 whip in his last 3 starts he's looking like the old Brett Cecil. He did it against the Rays 9th in OPS vs. LHP and 2 starts vs. the Rangers #5 in OPS vs. lhp. Now he faces the A's who are ranked 25th. He'll go up against Rich Harden who has a 5.74 ERA in his career vs. the Jays and has never been a good pitcher on turf. IN two starts last year he had 11 walks, 11 K's and 8 ER in just 5.1 IP vs. the Jays and that's very typical of Harden. He gives up home runs, strikes out a bunch and walks a bunch. Jays fit right in here that's probably why they have had so much success in their career off him. They are 6th overall in walks so I expect lots of baserunners tonight and for hte Jays to win as they are 24-8 following an off day 11-3 in their last 14 meetings at home vs. the A's. They are also 17-5 in Cecil's last 22 game 1 starts while the A's are an awful 3-10 in their last 13 rd starts vs. LH starters and 19-47 in their last 66 as a dog.

Red Sox -111 (4* MLB POD) Not a lot on the card today we like just one play and it's the Sox. Despite the pitching match up on favor being in favor of the Twins as Scott Baker has been dynamite at home 1.78 ERA. He has not had the pleasure of facing a team like the Red Sox whoa re #1 in OPS vs. RHP and on the road are hitting .262 with 5.52 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Twins at home have been awful this year and have a .250 average 3.70 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are 28th wtih a .657 OPS vs. RHP. Wakefield should have the advantage in this one in my opinion and that's why he is oddly a favorite. When he's a favorite -110 to -150 the Red Sox are 37-18 in his last 55. Twins are 17-38 in their last 55 vs. AL east and Wakefield has a 2.40 ERA in his last 3 years in the month of August. Finally the Twins bullpen is not very good with a 5.16 ERA at home.

Money Line

Pick:
Twins -120 (5.5* MLB POD) Love the Twins here we are getting great value as Zach Stewart starts for the White Sox. Pavano has a 12.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and that's why the line is where it is. A closer look he did have to face Texas and Detroit in his last 3 starts both are in the top 6 in OPS vs. RHP and he was on the road. Pavano at home is a different monster he has a 1.20 WHIP and 3.32 ERA during home starts and he has plenty of success vs. the White Sox who are ranked 19th vs. RHP in terms of OPS. His last 2 he's got a 0.93 WHIP and 1.69 ERA vs. the Sox and he's 8-2 in his last 10 with 4 complete games and a 3.07 ERA. Last 3 years August has been a good month where he posts a 3.99 ERA in 14 starts. Twins bullpen has been great 1.42 ERA over the last 10 games and they are scoring nearly 5 runs per game while the Sox are really struggling .227 3.47 runs per 9 vs. RHP and a 6.91 bullpen in hte last 10. That's going to be a big issue with Stewart on the mound as he has two road starts at Atlanta and Detroit and he's got a 2.38 WHIP giving up 19 hits 4 walks in 9.2 innings pitched. I think he struggles here the Twins are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. a losing team and 44-18 in their last 62 home as a favorite -110 to -150 and they also are 24-7 in their last 31 home vs. the White Sox after losing last night this is a good time to play them as I don't see this struggling White Sox offense winning two games in a row.

Rangers -150 *4.5* MLB POD Jimenez makes his first start in a new league and it comes against the one of the best offenses in a not so friendly hitters ball park in Texas. Rangers are #2 in OPS vs. RHP and are even more dangerous over their last 10 they have a .315 average and 6.15 runs per 9 and have been on fire all year at home and they are 16-5 in their last 21 meetings. Not many have seen JImenez but his control problems should lead to a lot of pitches early which will get handed over to the bullpen which advantage to Texas. Cleveland is 9-21 in their last 30 as a dog to +150. Jimenez 6 innings over last two pitches has given up 9 ER and has not been the same type player all year. INdians face a lefty and they are 21st in OPS vs. LHP. Holland threw a complete game shut out earlier in the year so I expect more domination for him as the Indians have just a .194 average in 31 at bats and a .445 OPS.

Yankees -113(4.5* MLB POD) Yankees are on fire right now and still remain #3 in the league with a .775 OPS vs. RHP which they will face again on Thursday in Phillip Humber. Humber is 0-3 in his last 3 starts with a 9.00 ERA, but we still get great value here because Humber dominated the Yankees in his debut. Yankees always struggle vs. teams their first time around so I

Cubs -105 (4.5* MLB POD) Garza is still coming in as an under rated starter and I love it. Though he gave up 12 hits to the Pirates the first time he saw them in the early season he also struck out 12 batters only gave up 3 ER over 7 innings. Pitching in Pittsburgh is going to be different for him and he can still dominate a team with K's the same way. I expect him to really pitch a gem with only 89 pitches in his last start especially since the Pirates really struggle with the bats at home and are 26th in the league with a .659 OPS vs. RHP. Garza struggles but he did against the Cards the #1 team in NL vs. RHP. Charlie Morton goes for the Pirates and I think he's hit his wall he's got 12 starts in August over the last 3 years with a 6.44 ERA. IN 4 career starts vs. the Cubs he has a 7.86 ERA though he's been better of late. Morton though in his last 2 starts has a 2.57 WHIP and 9.1 innings.

Yankees -103 (4.5* MLB POD) Yankees are the #1 team in OPS vs. LHP and even without Arod they continue to hammer away 22-7 in their last 29 vs. LH starters. They face Johny Danks who they have beat up in the past. CAno, Swisher, TEixera are a combined 14-29 with 2 HR off Danks. Even though Granderson has struggled vs. him big time 1-23 he has a .956 OPS vs. LEFTIES this year and is a completely different hitter vs. the south paws than in the past. Phil Hughes has struggled but this is an opportunity to turn it around as the White Soix over last 10 games are hitting .183 vs. RHP scoring just 3.23 runs per game whil ethe Yanks are hitting .319 vs. LHP scoring 8.71 runs over the same period. Yankees are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings and I expect them to win this one big.

Brewers -125 (4* MLB POD) Brewers are the best home team in the majors and they got their ace going up against the Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter. The home team usually wins the game between these two of late and I think it happens again tonight. Carpenter has not been good on the road this year and he's really struggled vs. the Brewers of late over his last 3 starts he's given up 17 ER over just 14 innings. Ricky Weeks is 6-10 with 3 home runs while Fielder is 6-17 with 2 home runs. Brewers are scoring 5.36 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home and are 36-15 in their last 51 home vs. RH starters and 39-14 in their last 53 as a home favorite. Cardinals are 5-13 in Carps last 18 starts on 4 days rest and 5-11 in his last 16 road starts. Greinke finally getting some luck that he didn't have earlier and has a 1.40 ERA over his last 4 starts he's got 34 K's over 25 innings and can dominate this match up. He's got an ERA under 3 in his last two starts vs. the Cardinals over the last two years.

Red Sox +111 (4.5* MLB POD) Sox again. Despite their troubles vs. the White Sox we cashed in last night on our max play and we plan for the same result here today as when you cut to the core of this match up the true advantages are on the side of the men from Boston. Let's first start by saying the Red Sox have dominated day games this year they are 24-9 with a 3.71 ERA and have scored 6.55 runs per day game. They have the #1 OPS with an incredible .875 during day starts. Compared with the Sox who are scoring 4.18 runs per day game and have a 3.79 ERA and are 21-19. Just not quite even with what the Red Sox are doing. Next both teams are facing LHP today as Boston is #3 with a .816 OPS very close behind the Reds and Yankees while the White Sox have really struggled with a .668 OPS ranked 25th vs. LHP. Now the pitching match up looks like it's in favor of the Mark Buehrle and the White Sox but I beg to differ. Buehrle has been great at home with a 2.25 ERA over 10 starts, but a closer look and we realize how lucky he's been. First of all he's faced some very bad teams that can't hit lefties like the Red Sox including the A's twice, Twins, and Dodgers all ranked over 20th in OPS vs. LHP. His two starts vs. the Tigers who are ranked 7th are the only top 10 team he's faced at home and he gave up 10 hits in each start very lucky not to give up more runs than he did. He faced the Angels and Orioles both ranked 14th and 16th respectfully and again he gave up 12 base runners in each game and was able to escape giving his team a chance to win. Very lucky in my opinion. Red Sox are the cream of the crop and they have hit Buehlre very hard over their career as they have a combined 236 at bats with a .339 average and .856 OPS. McDonald, Ellsbury, Ortiz, Pedroia, Crawford all int he line up today are 46-115 batting .400 vs. him and Varitek is 10-31 with a lot of success vs. Buehrle. Add in Adrian Gonzalez .301 vs. LHP and Youkilis who is hitting .331 vs. LHP and this just spells trouble for Buehrle as the Red Sox are hitting .341 scoring 12.27 runs per 9 over the last 10 games vs. LHP. They are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. LH starters. Now to Boston's starter. I won't get into as deep, but Andrew Miller is only 26 coming off an 80 pitch performance so he's fresh to go in this one. He was a highly touted prospect and I think he still can be a huge factor for the Red Sox this season. You look at his ERA and you would stay away from this match up, but he's been bad in two starts vs. Rays and Royals who are 8th and 13th in OPS vs. LHP. The Sox are 25th so he finally gets a match up where he can cruise and dominate. His other 5 starts with the Sox this year he's 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA so he can pitch effectively especially vs. White Sox who are hitting .225 with just 2.23 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. Boston's bullpen will be needed in this one and they are well rested and have a 2.59 ERA over their last 10 games.

Red Sox -147 (5.5* MLB POD) Sox have struggled vs. the White Sox just 2-14 in their last 16 meetings, but today I'll tell you why they are coming out of it. Phillip Humber has solid numbers right 3.42 ERA at home. Well he now faces the #1 hitting team vs. RHP in Boston which has .807 OPS vs. RHP this year and have over 5 runs per game vs. RHP on the road. Humber has 8 home starts. The best team as far as hitting goes vs. RHP that he faced was the Orioles who are ranked 10th, and the next 7 are ranked 19, 23, 24, 25,27 and 29th. It's no wonder he has pitched well with an average opponent ranked 22nd in OPS vs. RHP. He's also been largely lucky with an extremely low .250 BABIP. Now he faces a legitimate hitting team vs. RHP. His last start vs. Boston was solid, but he still gave up 4 ER 9 hits and a walk in nearly 8 innings. I don't think we can expect that today from a pitcher who faces a hungry Boston team that has lost two games in a row. Also he hasn't started in 13 days as he temporarily moved to the bullpen. Look for him to struggle early in this one. Lester on the other hand has struggled big time in his last 2 starts vs. the White Sox in his previous 4 he has a 3.03 ERA. White Sox just aren't hitting lefties this year they're ranked 25th with a .670 OPS vs. LHP. They have a .260 average and .766 OPS vs. Lester despite dominating him in his last two starts. Lester is 7-1 this year with a 2.80 ERA in road starts he threw under 100 pitches in his last start so he's real fresh and over 2008 to 2010 he was 7-4 2.79 ERA in July starts. White Sox at home this year just .236 average 3.39 runs per 9 at home vs. LHP.

Mets -111 (4.5* MLB POD) Ching Ming Wang will make his debut for the first time since 2009 and I think he's going to have all kinds of trouble he has not been good at all in his rehab starts and the Mets are just red hot right now. Mets hit righties better #7 in the league with a .743 OPS this year and are scoring 4.90 runs per 9 on the road vs. RHP and are ranked #7 with a .730 OPS in road games this year where they have played above .500. They send Dillon Gee out there with 2 starts vs. Washington 14.2 IP 4 hits 6walks 1 ER. Mets are hot right now Bay has started to come around with extra base hits and David Wright is red hot since coming back and Lucas Duda quietly is replacing Beltran quite nicely with a .441 average and .558 obp over his last 15 games.

Rangers -152 (4.5* MLB POD); The Rangers lost yesterday and it's a perfect spot to take advantage of some value on a bounce back game. Rangers have averaged over 6.5 runs per 9 over their last 10 games combined and go up against a strong righty in Scott Baker who has a 0 ERA over his last 3 starts. Twins are being cautious with him as he just came off DL going 5 IP in last two starts so that means bullpen for the Twins and they are among the worst in the league in bullpen ERA. Baker has 3 starts at Texas over his career and gave up 12 ER in 16.2 innings. Texas is #2 in the league in OPS vs. RHP with .787 OPS while the Twins face a lefty and are ranked 19th .690. Harrison had a good start at Minny earlier this year 6 innigns 5 hits 1 ER and will try to continue what he's been doing of late. Texas is 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a RH starter while the Twins are 8-18 in Baker's last 26 as a road under dog. Beltre/Kinsler/Cruz are a combined 20-61 off Baker with 3 HR. Today's home umpire Muchlinski has umped a home team win 38 out of his last 52 games.

Dbacks +105 (4.5* MLB POD) Well unbelievably errors were the cause for our MLB POD loss yet again last night as Chacin gave up just 1 ER and the Rockies lost 3-2. Frustrating that's 4 games in a row, but we really can't predict the fielding errors. Tonight we go with the Dbacks who continue to play well. They'll face Cory Luebke who has been great so far, but I think I know why. He's faced the Giants twice, Braves, Mariners, and Phillies all who are among the worst in the league in OPS vs. LHP. Actually put them all together and they average 26th ranking with none of them in the top 20 in OPS vs. LHP. Now he faces a Diamondbacks team that has scored 25 runs in their last 3 games and are #9 in the league in OPS vs. LHP and 7-3 in the last 10 match ups. They also throw Ian Kennedy out there who has 19 K 0 ER in 12 IP in two career starts at San Diego and has a 2.25 ERA overall in 4 starts vs. the Padres with 32K's in 24 innings. Oh by the way the Padres are awful vs. RHP especially at home with a .202 average and 2.68 runs per 9 this season. They are 16-35 in their last 51 home games vs. a RH starter. Padres are 30th in the league in OPS vs. RHP with a .616.

Rockies +145 (4* MLB POD) Love the Rockies in this spot. Chacin has absolutely dominated the Dodgers in his career over his last 5 starts vs. LA they have a 0.77 ERA and just a .632 OPS lifetime. Kershaw over his last 3 starts vs. the Rockies has not been good giving up 13 ER and 17 hits over 16 innings pitched to go along with 8 walks. Colorado is one of the more patient hitting teams in the league ranked in the top 5 in walks so it's no wonder Kershaw has had issues. Also Kershaw can't possibly keep up what he's done over his last 3 starts with a 0.00 ERA. Rockies are the #8 team in OPS vs. LHP .734 and are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. LHP. In the last 10 games the Rockies are scoring 5.40 runs per 9 vs. LHP while Dodgers are at just 2.98 vs. RHP. In general Dodgers are 24th in OPS vs. RHP this year with a .672 OPS. I give the edge to the Rockies in this one.

Angels -123 (4* MLB POD) Got to love the Angels here as Haren is in a bounce back start and the Indians are struggling with the bats a bit here. IN his last 3 starts he has a 1.58 ERA and 0.83 WHIP vs. the Indians. I also like the Angels bullpen advantage i the last 10 games La has a 2.56 ERA out of the bullpen while the Indians have a 5.48. Carmona looked good in his return, but now goes up against an Angels team that's playing well and are 17-5 in their last 22 as a favorite. Carmona is 6-18 in his last 24 vs. the Al West and has a 6.00 ERA in July starts over the last few years compared to Haren's 2.74 ERA in July starts.

Jays +150 (4.5* MLB POD) Love the Jays in this spot they are the #1 OPS team vs. LHP this year with .818 and they are scoring 6.28 runs per 9 over their last 10 games so their offense has been clicking while Texas has been super hot they have scored 5.44 over last 10 and they also face a starter in Villanueva who they have never seen before and that's the main reason I like the Jays chances even more. Toronto has the better bullpen 3.78 on the road compared to the Rangers 5.00 at home. Also Harrison who has been just great of late has faced an average LHP OPS of 21 out of 30 meaning he's been facing the teams who struggle to hit lefties during his hot streak. Actually the two mids Baltimore ranked 10th had 11 hits off him and the Astrost 14th had 5 ER off him. Toronto has killed him in the past he's got two starts with a 15.42 ERA 3.14 WHIP. Jays are 18-8 in their last 26 road games as a dog to +150 and are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. the Rangers on the road. Also noting Harrison is bound to have a rough start he's got 6 straight starts now with 100+ pitches and I think it catches up to him as he faces his first top 10 offense vs. LHP today since Detroit knocked him out early of a start.

Cardinals -131 (4.5* MLB POD) We head with the Cards for our POD backing Carpenter once again. Carp has a 1.66 ERA since June 23 and has been dominant in his starts vs. the Pirates going 11-2 in 16 starts with a 2.09 ERA. Cards are 14-2 vs. Pirates in his 16 career starts. Carp struggled early on the road but has been dominant over his last 2 starts going 17 IP giving up 2 total earned runs. Pit is 24th in the league in OPS vs. RHP with a .670 OPS. So while they are playing well it's not their offense and they'll need their offense to come up big here and I don't htink they will as they struggle at home to score runs vs. RHP. Maholm goes for St. Louis and that's good news for Pujols and the Cardinals who beat up on another lefty yesterday. I always like playing a team that hits lefties well and are facing lefties on back to back. Cards are 7th in the league with a .743 OPS vs. LHP and Pujols is an incredible 19-33 vs. Maholm. Theriot also has success and Holliday adds 2HR. Cards are scoring over 5 runs per game on the road this year and are hot vs. LHP in their last 10 with a .289 average and 6.10 runs per 9. Also worth noting is that Carpenter comes in with 5 days rest and is 39-15 when on 5 days rest while Maholm and the Pirates are 7-22 when he's an under dog

Brewers +102 (4.5* MLB POD) Love tonight's match up partially because the Brewers have the advantage in all aspects of this game and are an under dog and that just doesn't happen very often. They have the better offense, pitching and bullpen here and I'll tell you why. Zach Greinke has been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball and if you look at his core stats he's only leaving 49% of base runners on base on the road this year. That's just amazing his .344 BABIP is just unlucky especially since he is K'n 12 batters per 9 which is better than Ian Kennedy and he's only walking 2 per 9 also better than Kennedy. Kennedy always seems to struggle in July in 8 career starts in July he's got an ERA nearing 6 and that includes his 5.79 through his first 3 this month. I expect that to continue tonight against the Brewers who are hitting well and a have a righty heavy line up. Kennedy as a righty untraditionally struggles more with righties over his career than lefties and Mil has 32 AB .281 average and .878 OPS. Brewers also have the better bullpen as the Dbacks bullpen ERA at home is nearing 5.00.

Marlins -140 (5.5* MLB POD)
Well the Marlins are coming off a loss as they were shut out last night and I think it's the perfect time to strike on a hot team as they are 9-2 in their last 11. Mainly I love the pitching match up in this one and the Padres have not been a good team this year despite the success of their starter on Wednesday Aaron Harrang, but I think things are going to start to go sour for him. For one thing his ERA 3.81 on the road is a run higher than his home ERA and July believe it or not is his worst month over the last three years. He was 0-5 from 2008-2010 with a 6.69 ERA during the month of July. He also has struggled big time vs. the Marlins who have a combined .368 average and a 1.108 OPS led by Hanley Ramirez who is 9-23 with 4 HR off him. Hanley has been playing well of late too as he's 9-21 with a HR over his last 7 days and has a .400 average for the month of July. The Marlins overall have beaten up on Harrang at home scoring 17 runs in 18 IP while collecting 35 base runners. That's an ERA of nearly 9 and a WHIP nearly at 2. Harrang has been on fire of late with 7 ER over his last 7 starts and he's just not this good we expect that hot streak is way over due to blow up in his face and there is no better time than vs. the Marlins who he has struggled against in the month of July and on the road. Lastly we must talk Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has a 3.13 ERA at home 3.23 ERA at night this year very solid. His best month during 2008-2010 is his best month he's 9-4 with a 3.38 ERA during that period. He's red hot right now as he has a 1.04 WHIP and 0.78 ERA over his last 3 starts over 23 IP. Padres over their last 10 games are hitting .127 before last night's win vs. RHP scoring just 1.73 runs per 9 while the Marlins were hitting .290 with 6.79 runs per 9 vs. RHP. One thing that would worry me is Padres bullpen advantage however the Marlins have a 2.78 bullpen ERA at home while the Padres are over 3 on the road so another advantage for the Marlins. Umpire Carlson is behind the plate and the home team is 36-15 in his last 51 Wednesday's behind home plate.

Jays -118 (4.5* MLB POD) We'll continue to fade the Mariners vs. LHP. They are approaching embarassment now with a .602 OPS vs. LHP. Brett Cecil had success in his start over them last year and collectively they have a .552 OPS vs. Cecil. Cecil has looked good in his last few starts and I like his stuff in a game vs. the Mariners who are just 13-38 in their last 51 vs. LH starter, 17-45 in their last 62 as a dog and 10-27 in their last 37 meetings in Toronto. Not only are they last in OPS in the league vs. lefties but they are hitting .195 with just 0.98 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games combined while the Blue Jays are hitting .310 with 7.11 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Pineda has been great all year but it looks like he's starting to approach the unknown zone where he's not used to pitching this many innings. We have already seen it with a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts. He will make his first start on turf tonight where the Jays are 22-7 in their last 29 following off days.

Twins -105 (4* MLB POD) Twins lost game #1 earlier and it's not often a team can come back and lose game #2 especially a hot team like the Twins who are 17-6 in their last 23 home home games and are 21-8 in their last 29 vs. the Indians. Especially when they have dominated Fausto Carmona 2-8 in his last 10 starts vs. the Twins posting a 7.41 ERA and 1.68 WHIP during that period. Carmona is fresh hasn't pitched since 7/2 which I believe will make him a little rusty here tonight. He also hates pitching at night this year and away 6.14 and 5.87 ERAs. July has also not been his favorite month he has a 6.00 ERA over 2008-2010. Twins last 10 games they have hit righties .336 with 6.35 runs per 9. While the Indians face a lefty in Scott Diamond who has not been that great in AAA, but none of the Indians hitters have seen him and they are playing their second game of the day. This team got off to a hot start vs. lefties and was in the top 5 in OPS, but since have gone ice cold now ranked 24th wiht a .688. IN their last 10 games they are hitting .242 with 2.64 runs per 9 vs. LHP. I think Diamond will give the Twins what they need to get by and even up the series. Offense is down this year and we have seen it time and time again where a pitcher who is pretty unknown making his MLB debut and throws a gem.

Rangers -132 (4.5* MLB POD) The Mariners are just 11-16 during day games this year and the Rangers are scoring more than a run per game during day games than the Mariners who are 30th with just 2.81 runs per day game. Mariners face another lefty they are also 30th with a .607 OPS vs. LHP this year. They have scored just 1.58 runs per 9 in their last 10 while the Rangers are at 7.21. Matt Harrisson has pitched great away and during day games with a 2.86 away and a 1.70 during day starts and he's had plenty of success vs. the Mariners with a 2.14 ERA over his last 3 starts. Texas just kills RHP and surged to #2 in OPS vs. RHP. They face rookie Beaven making his 3rd start. Beaven faced Angels and Padres not exactly slugging teams. He had a 4.45 ERA in AAA so I'm not impressed as he's been extremely lucky in his first two starts posting a .167 BABIP and 97.8 left on base percentage both will surely go up today vs. the Rangers who are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the Mariners.

Red Sox +132 (4.5* MLB POD) Lackey says his arm feels good and with a couple of extra days with the All Star break I do believe him. Last night it was a rare loss for the Sox but they still put up 6 runs. Boston is flat out dominant during day games for whatever reason and we have said this before. They are scoring more than 2 runs per game during day games than the Rays 6.48 vs. 4.34 and are the #1 team by far wtih a .875 OPS during day games. Now they face Shields who has been dominant in his own right and in his last start vs. the Red Sox he pitched a complete game shut out at home. That should be the Sox motivation. Gonzalez, Ortiz and Pedroia have ridiculous numbers vs. the righty who is playing above his actual talent and I believe that will start to come back to earth. Shields is also receiving the least amount of run support at home of any other team with just 1.92 runs per game. Look for that to continue today Lackey is 11-4 with a 3.75 ERA in 16 starts vs. the Rays. Back to Shields bc he is the main reason this is our POD today with a lot of value. Take out his last complete game start and he's 3-6 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his previous 9 starts vs. the Sox. In the last 10 games the Sox are hitting .302 scoring 7.07 runs per 9 and have a 2.11 ERA out of the pen. Tampa just .257/4.97/4.07. Rays really are not on the same level as the Sox vs. RHP as they are ranked 18th with a .713 OPS and the Sox #1 .816 ops. Rays at home just a .227 average and 3.34 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Red Sox on the road .261 5.46 runs per game. Look for the Red Sox to improve to 22-8 during day games.

Twins -120 4.5* MLB POD It's kind of hard not to back this team right now they are 16-5 in their last 21 home games and are on a roll right now. Blackburn makes the start and has been awful of late, but I still feel confident he has the pitching advantage over Luke Hochevar who also has an ERA over 9 over his last 3 starts and the Twins hitters are way hotter right now with the bats hitting .402 vs. RHP over their last 5 games scoring 10.18 runs per 9 while KC just .237 and 2.91. KC is 15-41 in their last 56 as a dog. Hochevar has been awful at night and away with 6.21 ERA away and a 1-7 5.68 ERA during his night starts. IN 9 career starts he's 3-6 with a 5.43 ERA vs. the Twins and a 1.51 WHIP. Twins hitters have 116 AB with a .336 average and .947 OPS while KC which has had success int he past off Blackburn have just 100 AB with .240 average and .580 OPS. Twins are just one of those teams that dominate within their division and that's what we have here. Last July these teams went in opposite directions and I see it happening once again. Last July Twins were #1 with a .847 OPS and #2 with 5.69 runs per game while the Royals were #23 with a .703 OPS and 3.76 runs per game during the month of July. That just tells you where their players focus is during the dog days of the summer and right now the Twins are the hottest team in baseball.

[b]Twins -142 (4.5 * POD)[/b]
I love the Twins here. Liriano looks for revenge lasttime he faced the Royals he gave up 7 ER. We backed Chris Carpenter on two max plays like this too before the break and won both as Carpenter bounced back. Chen may have a 3.26 ERA on the year but Twins hitters are hitting .319 off the lefty and in his last 3 starts vs. the Twins he has a 2.06 WHIP over 17 IP as he's given up 6 walks 29 hits and 14 ER. Royals have just a .653 OPS vs. Lirano and July is Chen's worst month by far over the last 3 years where he has posted a 6.36 ERA over 10 starts. in every other month he has an ERA in the 4's or lower.

4* mlb pod

4* mlb pod

Cardinals -137 5.5* MLB POD Cardinals have not lost 4 in a row at home all year and I don't think it will start today with their ace on the mound in Chris Carpenter. We backed him in his last start as our last max play and I"m confident doing it again. He's got a 2.61 ERA at home a 0.75 ERA in his last 3. He has extra motivation like he did in last start as he gave up 7 ER on the road to the Reds he won at home pitching 8 shutout innings. Today he faces a Dbacks team that roughed him up for 8 ER on the road and now he's back home to prove the same thing. His previous 10 starts vs. the Dbacks he has a 2.58 ERA. Cardinals continue to slug and Daniel Hudson has not been the same pitcher on the road as he is at home with a 4.58 ERA on the road.

Brewers -130 (4.5* MLB POD); Twins +150 (3* DOD) Love the Brewers tonight despite missing Ryan Braun. They have plenty of players who have a lot of success against the Young Leake. Morgan, Betancourt, Fielder, and Weeks combined are 14-25. That's a huge chunk of this line up that has had success against a road pitcher. The Brewers are 31-13 at home for a reason they hit and we get great value here with Greinke because he's made some mistakes in big moments and has been the most unluckiest pitcher this year. I still think he's going to have a huge second half and in two starts vs. the Reds he's got 18 K's over 15 IP. He's #1 in the league in K/9 ratio for starting pitchers and his xFIP is 2.17 which is much lower than his actual. Brewers are 7-0 in his home starts despite his home ERA he's kept them in games and it doesn't hurt that Milwaukee is scoring 5.43 runs per 9 vs. RHP and their bullpen has a 3.51 ERA at home too. Cinci just 3.92 runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road and they are also in a bit of a slump batting just .245 wtih 3.52 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10. Reds are 18-38 in their last 56 road games vs. a winning team. They have a combined .333 average without Braun over 45 at bats vs. Leake. Twins keep getting it done. While I think Blackburn continues to struggle because he just isn't that good he's been excellen in two starts vs. the White Sox and Floyd well it can't get much worse. Over his last 4 starts vs. the Twins he's given up 50 base runners in 25.1 IP along with 23 ER. Minnesota has 121 AB collectively a .331 average and .926 OPS. Twins are really hitting as of late and the White Sox are not. 5.36 runs per 9 vs. 2.85 per 9 tells the story over the last 10 games. Also in division games. The Twins just dominate they have dominated the White Sox and it's because of their pitching. Floyd is 3-14 in his last 17 vs. AL Central while Blackburn is 16-5!

4.5* mlb pod

Red Sox -115 (4* MLB POD); Love the Sox they are #4 in the league in OPS vs. lhp this year and Romero has been hot and is due to come back to earth at some point. He has not enjoyed pitching in Boston over his career with an ERA over 5.5 in his career. Also July is his worst month with a 5.01 ERA over the last 3 years combined. Boston has a collective 121 AB with a .380 average 1.072 OPS vs. Romero. Those are unheard of numbers in a large sample size. He's got an ERA over 7 in his last 4 starts vs. them.

Angels +104 *4.5* MLB POD I like the Angels they have been hot winning 9 of 11 and have a major bullpen advantage here as Detroit continues to struggle out of the pen with a 5.65 ERA on the road while the Angels have a 2.13 at home. Over the last 10 games Detroit's bullpen has been terrible with a7.59 ERA. LA has been doing a lot of things well and they have a solid history vs. Verlander that gives me the confidence to take the Angels. Angels over 148 AB have a .324 average and .828 OPS vs. Verlander and the way he's going just can't keep up a 0.79 ERA over his last 7 game starts. We saw it with Cliff Lee over the weekend and I believe this is the start we see it with Verlander. 2009-present Verlander has made 9 starts out west mostly vs. the Angels, Mariners, and the A's and he has posted a 5.55 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP and his last 3 at LA resulted in an 8.62 ERA. He opposes a pretty good starter in Dan Haren who has a 3-3 record and a 2.12 ERA and is very capable of getting a win today. Tigers are 7-17 in their last 24 road games as a favorite -110 to -150 and 16-35 in their last 51 games at the Angels.

Cardinals -115 (5.5* MLB POD) Cardinals and Reds do not like each other that is one thing that's obvious last time they faced off the Reds swept the Cards at home and the series ended with Pujols on the DL after getting hit with a pitch. Benches have cleared in this series and it is obvious that these teams don't like each other. Carpenter struggled in his last start vs. the Reds, but over his previous 9 starts he was 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA. Pitching at home will help him in this one and he's been great of late going 16 innings giving up just 14 base runners and 2 ER. He is 20-6 during home starts from 2008-2010 and will look to continue to pitch great in July something the opposing pitcher can not state. Carpenter from 08-2010 has a 2.70 ERA in July starts while Cueto's worst month is July posting a 5.34 ERA in his career in July with a 4-6 record over 16 starts. More on Cueto he has a 1.84 ERA, but he's been extremely lucky with a .211 batting average with balls in play which is well below his career average and I expect that to start coming back towards the mean. Why wouldn't it happen today? The Cardinals have a 139 AB a .331 average and .975 OPS vs. Cueto. Cueto has been better as of late vs. the Cards, but I think it will only take a run or two for the Cardinals to win this one as i expect Carpenter to be dominant in this one ast he Reds have 224 AB with just a .215 average and .619 OPS vs. Carp. Reds have lost 9 of 15 and 8 of those games they only managed 3 runs or less. Cardinals are 14-2 in Carps last 16 Monday starts, and 47-16 in his last 63 game 1 starts while the Reds have really struggled in St Louis going 18-43 in their last 61. They are also 2-7 when Cueto is on 5 days rest and 10-24 in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

PHI/TOR U8 4.4* MLB POD Well it's pretty hard to lose when you have a 7-0 lead but if we are on the side that blows the lead anything is possible as it happened last night with the Twins, but anyway it's one play a day for us for a while and today we go with the under. Something just is not right Lee has thrown 3 complete game shutouts in a row and the blue birds bats have been struggling for over 2 weeks now yet the line is shifting toward Jo Jo Reyes?? I guess they are expecting the Phillies bats to continue to struggle vs. the lefty and this one to be a close game so we'll roll with the under in this one as we expect Cliff Lee to continue his brilliant pitching.

Tigers -170 (5.5* MLB POD); Tigers RL +124 1.5* Last Sunday we gave you the Tigers as our POD for their success vs. LHP and we gave you a win for the 37th time in our last 51 5.5* max plays going back to the NFL season. Today it's based on the same reason that the Tigers have absolutely dominated left handed pitching. Now they got a tough start against Bumgarner last night, but I fully anticipate them to bounce back getting Barry Zito a pitcher they are very familiar with. Victor Martinez is 8-22 vs. the lefty and the Tigers remain the #4 team in the majors in OPS vs. LHP. Zito is also on 3 days rest in just his second start back from the DL and that to me spells trouble. He has a 6.69 ERA in inter league games vs. the AL since 2007 with a 3-10 record. Detroit is 43-20 in their last 60 home games vs. LH starters and Max Scherzer is 16-5 in his last 21 home starts as a favorite. Scherzer who has a 2.60 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Giants will enjoy going up against a struggling offense that has a .218 average and 3.19 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games. Scherzer has a 3.13 ERA in 10 home starts with a 5-1 record he has definately pitched better at home and he is capable of much more than his ERA suggests as his xFIP is a lot lower. His problem has been giving up the long ball and luckily the Giants are 25th with just 39 HR on the year.

[b]Braves -174 (4.5* MLB POD)[/b]
Guthrie in his last two starts has gone 12 IP giving up 24 base runners for 2.00 WHIP and 9 ER. Braves winners of three straight games will look to make it #4 when they send their ace to the mound. Braves have been hitting vs. RHP they are .259 with 6.44 runs per 9 in their last 5 games overall while the Orioles are .277 3.79 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are 7-19 in Guthrie's last 26 road starts while the Braves in inter league play are 16-5 with the spread is between -151-200. Guthrie has not pitched more than 6 innings in over a month which could be a major problem as the they have 27th ranked bullpen while the Braves have the #1 bullpen. Braves are 8-5 following an off day while the Orioles are 9-25 vs. winning teams this year. Braves win this game. Orioles are just 3-12 vs. teams with a top 6 bullpen ERA.

[b]Jays -140 (4* MLB POD)[/b]
Brett Cecil was the Jays best starter last year and he started this season with some major control problems. Now he returns after righting the ship a bit in AAA going 8-2 in those starts and faces a Pirates team that is 27th with a .663 OPS vs. LHP this year and are 21-53 in their last 74 road games vs. LH starters. Jeff Karstens makes the start for the Pirates and he has been pretty lucky this season his Xfip is +1.10 higher than his actual ERA and he's been lucky with a .246 BABIP. This would be a higher play if the Jays were hitting I"m looking for them to snap out of it tonight against Karstens though and they should be fired up to have Cecil back on the mound. Karstens is 3-15 in his last 18 game 3 of a series starts. Jays take the rubber game.

4.5* mlb pod

4* MLB POD

Tigers -137 (5.5* MAX POD) Detroit is #4 team in runs per game during day games which has led to their 18-12 day record They are also among the leaders in OPS during day games while Arizona is towards the bottom with a .698 OPS during day games and they are 25th with a 4.57 ERA. Joe Saunders takes the ball and he's 2-4 with a 5.58 ERA during day games and he faces a tough task against the Tigers who are #6 in OPS vs. LHP with a .773 along witha .272 average. They are 42-18 in their last 60 games at home vs. a LH starter and 41-10 in their last 50 inter league home games. Arizona really struggles to score runs on the road and collectively they have seen Brad Penny 114 times and they have just a .603 OPS. While the Tigers have 95 AB vs. Saunders a .305 average and .837 OPS. Perhalta and Ordonez are 17-38 with 3HR both have well over 1.000 OPS's and .400 average. Miguel Cabrera also red hot vs. Saunders and lefties in general. Saunders usually keeps his team in the game, but his raw stats don't impress me his 5.08 XFIP is higher than his actual ERA and he averages 3.68 BB/9 and just 5.08 K/9 His last 4 starts vs. the Tigers dating back to 2009 resulted in just 18.2 IP and 16 ER that's an ERA over 8. Arizona just 11-23 in their last 34 Sunday games and 2-11 with Saunders on the mound on the road.

White Sox -153 (4.5* MLB POD) Tom Gorzelanny makes the start for the RED HOT Nationals and I'm afraid that's not a good thing. It's his second start since coming off the DL and the first one was no good either as he went just 4.2 IP giving up 10 hits and 4 ER vs. the Orioles. Now he makes another start on the road and during the day against the White Sox who are 38-14 in their last 52 inter league games. Gorzelanny has a 5.01 ERA in day starts from 08-2010 over 134 innings pitched while John Danks over 2008-2010 has a 2.76 ERA over 36 starts. It's clear Danks has learned to prepare for day games and he's got a 3.09 ERA during his June starts over the last 3 years which is his next best month after April. He's got a 1.23 ERA over 3 starts this month and he faces a Nationals team although hot right now that is among the worst in OPS vs. LHP at just .656 and they are 26th with a .665 OPS during day games where they average just 3.51 runs per game while the White Sox are scoring 4.71 runs per game during day games and are 7th with a .762 OPS during day games. I hate to fade the Nationals in consecutive nights, but it's really the best play on the card.

White Sox -113 (4*POD) Riggleman now gone in an odd way may end the Nationals hot streak. They now go on the road after barely scoring any runs in the last two games which shows me some signs of their hot streak coming to an end. Edwin Jackson has a 2.89 ERA in his home starts and the Nationals struggle vs. RHP they are 24th in the league with a .685 OPS vs. RHP. Jackson also has an xFIP that may have the largest differenc ein the league his actual ERA at 4.47 and xFIP is 3.36. His .352 BABIP is very unlucky. Expec that to start to turn around while Zimmerman who starts for the Nationals is in a different situation. He's also been lucky facing the Orioles twice, Padres twice, Giants twice and the Braves. None of those teams are inside the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP so he's bound to come back to earth as he steps up in competition starting tonight as the White Sox are the best hitting team vs. RHP he's faced in over 10 starts.

Cardinals -110 (4* MLB POD) Oswalt has been in a slump as of late with an ERA over 5 over his last 3 starts what concerns me more is his K/9 ratio is down over 2 k's per 9 on his career average and he's been lucky with a 3.38 ERA as his Xfip is at 4.06. Cardinals have not gotten swept by the Phillies at home in 5 years and they are too good to get swept here today. Carpenter has had a lot of success vs. the Phillies in 63 AB the Phils have a .203 average vs. Carpenter as he went 8 IP 5 hits and 1 ER in a start last year. The Phillies score under 4 runs per game on the road and the Cardinals are 18-8 in their last 26 game #3's and 52-19 in Carpenter's last 70 as a home favorite. Philly may be hot right now but I think they are running into the wrong game 3 against the wrong pitcher and team. Cardinals were winning when Pujols was slumping through the first two months of the season and I think Berkman/Holliday can carry this team while he's out.

Angels -129 (4.5* MLB POD); Nations -130 3* play; SF/MIN U6.5 +100 1.5* The sample size is too large for Vazquez to put up a solid game and the Marlins have been just awful getting 2.27 runs per 9 in their last 10 games while the Angels are the #1 inter league team at 54-25 since 2007 including 25-8 in their last 33 road games and 35-19 in their last inter league vs. a RH starter. Marlins are 19-47 in their last 66 as a home dog. Angels have also seen Vazquez before they got 25 base runners in 14 innings over 3 starts with when he pitched for the Yankees in 2010 with a 9.00 ERA. He's got an ERA nearly at 7 at home he's coming off a decent start, but I'm sure he'll be back to his old ways on Tuesday night.

4* top play

Rockies +129 (4* MLB POD); Love the Rockies as Aaron Cook will make his 3rd start for them and he's backed by an offense that is starting to hit thanks to Carlos Gonzalez. Rockies over their last 10 games have a .346 average and are scoring 7.27 runs per 9 vs. RHP which they will face in Justin Verlander. Verlander is largely due for an off start and I think it comes here today vs. a hot Rockies team. Verlander has thrown 100+ pitches in all of his last 10 starts including 132 just a couple games ago. For a power pitcher that has to take it's toll at some point and I think the Rockies will be patient enough to get him out of this game early so they can take advantage of Detroit's 5.97 bullpen ERA on the road. Tigers have never faced Aaron Cook and are 1-9 in their last 10 in Col and 17-42 in their last 59 road games vs. a rh starter. Colorado on the other hand is 23-5 in their last 28 inter league starts vs. RH pitchers.

Rangers +104 4.5* MLB POD Dog of the Day/ Dbacks +108 3* MLB DOG of the day Love the Dbacks at home vs. Danks. Danks is 0-6 in his road starts with a 6.50 ERA. He goes on the road to face a solid Dbacks hitting team that has hit lefties hard a 5.42 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home while the White Sox who are also facing a lefty have just a .690 OPS vs. LHP. They are just scoring 3.66 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road which is nearly 2 runs less than what the Dbacks are doing at home. Dbacks are 8-1 in their last 9 home inter league games vs. lhp. I love the Rangers Harrison has been money on the road with a 2.37 ERA and the Braves have not been able to hit lefties they are now 29th vs. LHP this year in OPS with a meager .638 and over their last 10 games they are hittng just .144 1.37 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Lowe has had some success against the Rangers before but he had one start he gave up 7ER. He's got a 4.98 ERA at home which is nothing impressive against a Rangers team that is 10-3 in their last 13 inter league games vs. RH starters while the Braves 4-11 in their last 15 inter league vs. LH starters.

Twins -132 (4.5* MLB POD)
Duensing only threw 54 pitches in his last start and I expect him to rebound in a big way against a Padres team that is dead last in the league in hitting not to mention the Twins bullpen is rested and they have won 11 of 13 games. Add in that they are starting to get healthy with Mauer coming back tonight and I

[b]Tigers -127 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Love the Tigers in this one. First of Fausto Carmona is down on his velocity and has been falling apart. He's got a 6.64 ERA on the road this year and he faces a Detroit team that is hot right now with the bats. They are averaging 5.5 runs per game over their last 10 overall and are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. a RH starter. Penny takes the mound for the Tigers and has pitched great at home with a 2.83 ERA. Most of the Indians lineup hasn't seen him they have 88 AB 63 have come from Orlando Cabrera and they have a collective .193 average against him. Love the Tigers to stay hot here they are 20-7 in their last 27 home meetings with the INdians.

4.5* MLB POD

Marlins -130 4* MLB POD Nolasco should be able to help end the losing streak at home for the Marlins as he's 5-1 lifetime vs. the Dbacks with a 3.38 ERA. Zack Duke makes the start for the Dbacks and the Marlins have a history of killing left handed pitching. They have 49 AB .347 average and a .828 OPS vs. Duke and they are #9 team vs. LHP with a .735 OPS. Last year they were in the top 5. Dbacks have been hot, but every hot streak must come to an end and with Nolasco pitching excellent at home 3.01 ERA in 8 starts this year and a 3.15 during night starts and his success vs. the Dbacks I believe this to be the best bet of the day.

4.4* nba pod

Mets +101 4* MLB POD; Jays +154 2* dog of the day Capuono is far better than his numbers suggest and the Pirates struggle big time vs. lefties they are 27th in the league with a .654 OPS vs. lefties. They score just 2.83 runs per 9 vs. lefties at home. Kevin Correia has been solid but pitching way over his abilities in my opinion with a 3.64 ERA. He's been lucky with a .271 BABIP and I expect that to start to come back to the norm for him. He hasn't pitched well at home with a 5.76 ERA and the Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 meetings with Pit. Jays value play big here they are the #1 team in the league in OPS vs. LHP at .859. They have beaten up Lester in the past. This would be a larger play if the Jays weren't so hot right now.

Tigers -119 4.5* MLB POD
Scherzer posts a 12.51 ERA over his last 3 starts, but we will chalk it up to facing hot teams at the wrong time. Here today he goes up against the Mariners and their stud rookie Pineda who posts a 1.64 ERA over his last 5 games, but his xFIP (trending ERA) is +1.03 ERA away from his actual ERA he is by far over due to come back to reality. Why not today against the Tigers who are seeing him for the 2nd time and are 18-8 in their last 26 home games vs. a winning team. Tigers are hot right now scoring 6.14 runs per 9 over their last 5 games while the Mariners continue to struggle with consistently putting runs up on the board just 2.54 in their last 5 games. Ichiro is hitting .149 over their last 21 games. Scherzer is a dominant pitcher at home before his two poor performances he had an ERA under 2.00. He had a span of three straight shut outs at home vs. the White Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees. I think we can expect him to be dominant here and bounce back from his recent struggles. He's 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA vs. the Mariners.

Padres -150 *5 MLB PODLove the Padres Latos is on a role as of late with a 2.37 ERA and 3-0 record in his last 3 and he's 3-0 vs. the Nationals who are managing just 2.73 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games while the Padres are over 4 runs per 9 over that span. Marquis also has not been good on the road with a 5.09 ERA though I think he'll pitch a quality start in the big ball park it won't be good enough. Nationals are just 6-23 in their last 29 visits to Washington.

Heat +1.5 4.4* NBA POD; Under 185 -120 3* play, Heat -1.5 +160 2* play Heat have been more dominant in this series than most remember. I think they really come out with some authority tonight. Although Lebron has not really shown up in this series it will be interesting to see what he does here tonight. Still this is a very inconsistent offensive team in Miami which is why I like the under yet again. Miami's defense though is one of the best so expect a tight game down the stretch yet again with the Heat pulling out the victory.

BlueJays +108 (4* MLB POD) Can't help but back the Jays who are #2 in the league in OPS vs. LHP vs. a young unexperienced lefty like Duffy. Duffy has some good stuff, but still 13 walks in 4 starts is not going to get it done at this level. Blue Jays are a patient team too they are #6 in the league in walks and have been on fire with the bats of late. ON the road they average .295 with 6.33 runs per 9 vs. LHP. in their last 10 they are hitting .287 with an average of 7.99 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Kansas City has really struggled on the home stand just 3-6 and they have dropped 8 of their last 28 since opening up the season hot. I think this is a game the Jays get with Villanueva pitching decent baseball.

4.4* nba pod

Dbacks -113 (4.5* MLB POD) Love the Dbacks and we get a great line based on how well Correia has pitched, but in my opinion he's pitched over his head and his trending ERA says that it will be moving in the other direction. A 1.80 ERA in his last 3 starts gives me the idea that happens tonight against a team that knows him very well 201 career collective AB with a .860 OPS. Dbacks faced him 5 times last year and managed 32 hits while he pitched just 25.1 innings. Corriea just 3.99 K/9 innings is extremely low and if these Dbacks put the ball in play it's going to be along night. Also the Pirates are the 2nd worst hitting team at home with a .606 OPS. Hudson is spotty, but has been extremely unlucky with a .338 BABIP that will start to regress back to the norm and he has a great start against the Pirates in his career. Correia just 1-3 5.47 ERA at home expect that to continue as Arizona remains hot on the road tonight.

Brewers -132 (4.5* MLB POD); Greinke holds a significant pitching match up and I think the Brewers get the win. Greinke has the leagues #1 Xfip OR trending ERA and I like his ERA to continue to lower starting with the Marlins today as he faces off against Vazquez who continues to struggle despite moving back to the NL his problem of late is the long ball and the Brewers #2 in the NL in hitting HR so I expect him to struggle yet again today. These are excellent odds because Greinke hasn't pitched up to his potential but his trending ERA says he's due and he's had bad luck in the past.. Expect that to even out over time starting today.

Heat +3 -120 5* NBA POD; Over 188.5 2.5* play Heat really have dominated this series and I just think the Mavericks are going to continue having difficulties stopping the Heat. I don't see the Heat letting their collapse in game 2 roll into this game. That game gave Dallas a couple of points. If Dallas lost I think we'd have more of a pick em here. I also see the over again with both teams putting up points.

Dbacks -160 (4* play);
Diamondbacks are playing well at home 20-12 this year while the Nats are 11-21 ont he road. Jason Marquis has finally started to come back to life with an ERA over 6 in his last 3 starts combined and he's got a 5.75 ERA on the road this year. Ian Kennedy has been consistent all year long and I like the advantage the Dbacks have with their bats as they have hit Marquis hard in the past he's got an ERA at 9.00 over his last 3 starts vs. ARizona and Arizona in their last 10 games are putting up more than 6 runs per 9 vs. RHP while the Nats are at just 3.19 over their last 10. Look for Kennedy to throw a gem while Marquis battles and gives up 1 or 2 home runs.

Yankees -139 4.5* MLB POD We just missed with the Yankees as big under dogs last night, and I have a good feeling they'll bounce back to win tonight with CC Sabathia on the road as he's been great with an ERA under 3 this year on the road. Ervin Santana makes a start vs. the Yankees in his last 4 vs. the Yanks he's pitched at home in 3 of them giving up 18 ER over 24 IP. Jeter has a .452 batting average and overall Yankees have an OPS of .865 vs. them. I think they'll have the advantage here.

Royals -144 (4.5* MLB pod) I love the Royals Dan Duffy has been effective in 3 starts keeping his team in the game. He had an impressive performance on the road vs. Texas who just kills lefties and now he has the confidence going back home vs. the Twins who are 27th vs. LHP in OPS. Twins have never seen Duffy before so I think they'll really struggle while Pavano has pitched against the Royals countless times including at Kaufman earlier this year where he gave up 7 runs 12 hits in 5.1 IP. Collectively the Royals have a 117 ab and a .308 average with a .861 OPS vs. Pavano.

Rangers +115 (4* MLB POD); Dal/Mia Over 186 (4.4*play) 1.5* Mavericks +175 Rangers are 9-2 in their last 11 meetings with the INdians. I fear the Indians will start to spiral downward they have remained .500 since losing Hafner, but the Rangers got their lefty bat back in Hamilton and they are just a different monster. Over their last 10 games they are putting up more than 6 runs per 9 innings vs. rhp and are hitting .287. They beat up Carrasco last time who has an ERA over 7 at home this year. Rangers take this game and the value is on the dog for sure. See both Dallas and Miami picking it up tonight offensively, both under 40% last game. Miami may have just gotten really cocky and feel they have this series won, but I believe they will have a shot to win in the end. The fact that the Mavericks held the Heat under 40% shooting has to prove something to you about their defense on the road giving thema solid shot at winning.

Rangers +115 (4* MLB POD); Dal/Mia Over 186 (4.4*play) 1.5* Mavericks +175 Rangers are 9-2 in their last 11 meetings with the INdians. I fear the Indians will start to spiral downward they have remained .500 since losing Hafner, but the Rangers got their lefty bat back in Hamilton and they are just a different monster. Over their last 10 games they are putting up more than 6 runs per 9 innings vs. rhp and are hitting .287. They beat up Carrasco last time who has an ERA over 7 at home this year. Rangers take this game and the value is on the dog for sure. See both Dallas and Miami picking it up tonight offensively, both under 40% last game. Miami may have just gotten really cocky and feel they have this series won, but I believe they will have a shot to win in the end. The fact that the Mavericks held the Heat under 40% shooting has to prove something to you about their defense on the road giving thema solid shot at winning.

4* MLB pod

4.4* nba pod

Phillies -162 (4.5* MLB POD); Braves -114 (2.5*) Greinke -129 3.5* play DET/MIN Over 8.5 3.3* PLAY Phillies bats have really heated up and it's hard not to take them with Lee on the mound who has back to back complete game shut outs vs. the Nationals. Nats also in thier last games scoring just 3 runs per game and have struggled vs. the Phillies just 13-44 in their last 57 meetings. Marquis has been solid but starting to come back down to life with an ERA near 5 over the last 3 starts. also the Nationals at home have a .183 average 2.97 runs per 0 vs. LHP. I like the Braves simply because Latos has struggled on the road and at night and the Padres are terrible vs. LHP which they will face tonight. Padres .153 with 0.62 runs per 9 last 10 vs. LHP and are just 10-23 in their last 33 vs. the Braves. Brewers have struggled vs. the REds this year and last. but Greinke has a complete game 12 K performance that should give him some confidence vs. the Reds. Greinke's numbers don't jump out, but he's been extremely unlucky his ERA is over 5 but his XFIP is 1.58 meaning that he's due to be trending the other way. 13K/BB ratio tells part of that, but the .348 BABIP is one of the unluckiest. He also goes up against Reineke who is over achieving in the minors. I think Brewers get back to what they were doing at home tonight.

Reds -113 (4.5* MLB POD) Although this line continues to drop in our favor I like the Reds at home. All season long they have been one of the most dangerous teams vs. LHP. In fact they lead the league in OPS at .880 and they'll face Chris Narverson today which should get their bats clicking a little bit we hope. The Brewers have been red hot but now they face a team on the road where they have been just awful. The Reds are 21-5 in their last 26 meetings with the Brewers and the Reds are 27-9 in their last 36 home games vs. LH starters. This season vs. LHP at home they are hitting .306 average and 7.36 runs per 9. Brewers are not even averaging 3 runs per game on the road and vs. lefties it gets worse with just a .207 average and 1.56 runs per 9. I still like the Brewers as favorites of this division but I don't think they can take care of business today against Travis Wood as Wood has a trending negative ERA as he's been a bit unlucky thus far this season. His XFIP is over a run lower and the .321 BABIP tells a bit of the story so I expect some good stuff from Wood who in 3 career starts vs. the Brewers has a 2.95 ERA and 0.76 WHIP! Naverson on the other hand gave up 7 ER in just 2.1 IP vs. the Reds earlier this eason. Bonus Plays Jays -107 3.5* FL/ARI U9.5 +102 3* DOG of theday