Cappers Sports Picks

UCLA +7 5.5* NCAAF POD – UCLA +215 1* PLAY

UCLA’s struggles against Stanford in recent history are well documented (1-6 ATS in their last 7), but this is a different team.  This is probably the best UCLA team that Stanford has faced, and for Stanford people are forgetting that this team replaced their entire defense and I know they have looked good of late, and their wins against USC and Arizona are impressive, but this is their biggest challenge.  I’m not even that impressed now with their win against USC considering their situation now with Sarkisan and their loss against Northwestern looks even worse now after what Northwestern did at Michigan.

Jim Mora is a very good coach and this team has played exceptionally well on the road, 5-0 last year 2-0 on neutral fields.  This team is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a bye week, and the value is there considering vegas was off by nearly 30 points in their last match up against Arizona State.  Listen Arizona State is good, they had a bad game against USC, and they pose a different challenge than Stanford.  With Stanford what you see is what you get and it’s not overly difficult to prepare for.  I see UCLA’s offense really doing well in this game as they are truly balanced and pose a different challenge to this Stanford defense that in my opinion is getting a little too much credit.

When I say Stanford is predictable that’s not always easy to stop, but in their wins this year they have a QB rating of 204 and 88 in their loss.  That follows the trends from previous years in 2014 it was 167, to 113, and in 2013 it was 163 to 113.  This team needs Kevin Hogan to play well, and he honestly faces a tough task here on Thurdsay night even at home against the Bruins.  UCLA has an interception in every game, and is top 25 in opponent yards per attempt and completion %.  UCLA has been excellent in the red zone allowing only 38.89% TD’s, and on third down 36% both are better than Stanford’s defensive stats.  This just is not the same Stanford defense and they have actually allowed more sacks, and tackles for loss and have only forced 3 TO’s. 

Rangers +157 5* MLB POD

Oakland Raiders +4 5.5* NFL POD

I love the Raiders in this spot coming off a bad loss on the road there is clearly line value with them.  Majority of the public are just assuming that the Broncos are the Broncos at 4-0, but the fact is they are very lucky to be 4-0, and the Broncos offense is a shell of what it once was meanwhile Oakland's offense is quickly becoming one of the best in the league with all of their young talent!  Denver's offense ranks 31st in yards per play with just .1 more than the 49ers.  Perception definitely does not tell you that and Oakland's offense ranks 12th.

The Broncos have dominated this series in the past, and their defense has played extremely well, but they have not played a top 15 offense yet so I think the pressure is really going to be on Peyton Manning to produce a come back win and I could easily see the Raiders winning the game outright they always seem to step up big in these situations and I don't think they are too far away from being a factor in the division.  A win here and there will be a lot to talk about.

Redskins +7.5 3.3* play

I like the Redskins right now they are playing great defense and this is far too many points even for the way the Falcons are playing right now.  The Falcons offense is great, but their defense has also struggled ranking 27st in yard per play.  The Redskins have been + yards in every one of their games so far despite their opponents having the most plays per game they rank 4th with 288 yards allowed per game and have also been really tough to score on in the red zone at 37.5% while Atlanta's red zone defense ranks 25th.  Falcons also looking ahead to their division rival game on Thursday against the Saints. 

Chiefs -3 / Bills +5 

Chiefs are not as bad as their record they played 3 hopeful Super Bowl contenders.  The Bears were extremely lucky to get a win last week and I just see them losing this game pretty handily to the Chiefs who will have some success offensively with Jamal Charles going up against a run defense that ranks 26th in run defense.  Chicago has some issues with injuries along their offensive line and that should lead to a lot of 3 and outs, and even mistakes by Jay Cutler.  Either way it does not look good for their defense today which will be on the field a ton.

On the flip side I like the coaching edge for the Bills, and I think the value is right.  People are over reacting to their struggles against the Giants last week.  I was on the Giants as our POD, but I think they are a better team than they showed.  Rex Ryan will have his defense this week going up against a rookie QB.  The Bills should force some turnovers and should win this game.

4.5* MLB POD

[b]Royals -130 4.5* MLB POD[/b]

The Astros are an extremely young team, one that relies too heavily on the HR ball.  They were lucky enough to play against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium the first game, a team and offense that did not seem to exist.  Yankee Stadium is #4 in HR factor, while the Royals Stadium is #25 so I would believe this is a bad match up for the Royals.  Yordana Ventura also does not give up a lot of HR's and he is the type of pitcher that dominates come playoff team with his 97mph fastball.  Ventura has actually been even better vs. RHB holding them to an OPS nearly 100 points and he will face 6 of the 9 hitters from the right side.  He's held this Astros team to a .621 OPS without any HR in 3 starts and 54 AB.  Houston is also 19-41 in their last 60 road starts and send McHugh to the mound. 

McHugh has done a great job, but has a 1.31 WHIP on the road with a 4.05 ERA.  He's backed by a bullpen that is very good, but on the road they are over a run higher than what the Royals bullpen has done at home.  All in all I just trust the experience of this Royals team over the youth and exciting Astros team that everyone is starting to buy into.  I think we have more value here on the Royals who have the better starting pitcher going.  Ventura not enjoying as good of a season, but has been very good down the stretch.

Giants +5 5.5* NFL POD; Giants +200 1* 

Giants could easily be 3-0 now as they have led nearly all 12 quarters but instead sit at 1-2 and have a ton of value here on extra rest.  This is a well coached team and Buffalo is off a huge divisional road win.  I honestly don't see the Bills as focused this week and they are getting well over a field goal so I really can't get excited for that and back the Bills.  I think the extra prep will do the Giants good and they always seem to be in the game and I see nothing changing this Sunday.

Tulsa +7 5.5* POD & Tulsa +230 1* BONUS

Tulsa has to be licking their chops here against Houston.  Coming off a bye week and after a great performance vs. Oklahoma Tulsa gets to host a team as a 7 point under dog that is getting a lot of credit already for their win on the road against Louisville.  Both these teams are breaking in 2 new impressive coaches from big programs with Tom Herman form Ohio State on the Houston side and Phil Montgomery on the Tulsa side.

Tulsa’s offense worked on the road against Oklahoma.  Now he gets a bye week to improve the defense against another top tier offense coming in from Houston.  Montgomery has already proved he can improve this team and he’s got more returning starters than Houston.

Houston is far more predictable running the ball 65% of the time while Tulsa has been more balanced at 56%.  Houston will face the best offense they have seen all year.  Yes, they have been very good vs. the run, but they haven’t faced a team that can pass the ball and run the ball.  Louisville’s offense has been struggling all year and they haven’t faced anyone else to note.  Dane Evans at QB should keep the sticks moving and Zack Langer is a powerful back in the red zone where Houston is allowing 70% TD’s.  Actually Tulsa’s defense has been better on third down than Houston and their offense has also succeeded more on third downs.  I actually think Tulsa has a solid shot at pulling the upset.

Miami Dolphins -2.5 5.5* POD

I am grabbing the value here on the Dolphins as their public perception right now is super low, but this is still a very good team.   They nearly lose at Washington to open the season, and then they come back to lose in their own state to the Jaguars who looked awful in week 1.  I told many that the Jaguars would be better this year and unfortunately I just didn't have the guts to take them in week 2 after week 1.  Either way this team goes back home where the defense can be dominating while the Bills go on the road and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 in Miami.  I think this is a challenging game after their 2 home games, and I don't expect them to be able to win.  

Rex Ryan and the Bills really sold out to beat Tom Brady, and I see a little bit of a hangover or let down spot here having to travel to Miami.  Still people are high on the Bills, because they gave the Patriots a bit of a fight at the end, but many predicted the Dolphins to be better in the off season.  I still think we have a better offense from Miami with a more experienced QB who is back at home, while the Bills and Dolphins defense are both very similar in overall talent although Buffalo didn't look it last week.  This is almost a must win for each of these teams, and I think the home team has a major advantage.

Purdue +5.5 5.5* POD; Purdue +180 1* bonus

The public is loving Bowling Green, a high scoring machine that already went on the road to beat a Big Ten team in Maryland.  First of all Maryland is not technically a Big 10 team until they do something having just entered the league.  The public perception about both of these teams is completely off and now the line has moved 8 points since opening with Purdue as a 2.5 point favorite.  I’m sold at this point Purdue wins this game outright if they play smart.

We backed Purdue the first Sunday of the season and thought we had a cashed ticket against Marshall, but it was an absolute collapse in the 4th quarter of a game that started with a pick 6 and ended with an interception as Purdue’s QB Appleby had 4 interceptions.  Purdue is making a change though and it comes at the right time against a paltry Bowling Green defense that has nobody worth mentioning.  This is a great opportunity for David Blough to come in and look good at QB.  Bowling Green can’t get pressure, and they are terrible vs. the run.  They are also coming off a pretty tough loss at home against Memphis that may be tough to get over here.

Purdue is a team that has a head coach in his 3rd year (I love these situations), with 15 returning starters.  They haven’t looked good yet, but watching the Marshall game I know this team is improved.  They improved drastically last year, and this year they returned the entire offensive line with 80+ starts.  I expect big days from both of their running backs Markell Jones who has 7.16 ypc and D.J. Knox who is a tough runner.  Purdue is also pretty good in key situations on defense which should help.  They have held opponents to 31.82% on third down while Bowling Green is just 37% at converting (I bet you thought it was better), and they held opponents to 53% TD % while Bowling Green (converting at 53%).  Defensively Bowling Green allowing 70% in the red zone on the road this year and 67% overall.  They are also not a very disciplined team with nearly 11 penalties a game ranking them 123rd in the country.  They have been opportunistic on defense which gave them the game against Maryland, but in three games only have forced 4 turnovers.  However, they are a MAC team.. 

The MAC is looking pretty good these days as Northern Illinois nearly beat Ohio State, and Toledo took down Arkansas both on the road.  However, the MAC West is far superior to the MAC East.  Ironically Purdue just 1-2 vs. the MAC have only played teams from the West.  MAC East on the road vs. Big Ten the last 2 years are 1-11 with the 1 win being Bowling Green at Maryland with +3 turnovers.  Purdue is much better than Maryland in my opinion who only returned 10 starters, and were -99.3 yards per game in the conference a year ago.

Oregon State +14 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD

I am jumping on Oregon State here, I think this is a tough game for Stanford after they went on the road and beat USC a week ago.  I wouldn't typically select a Stanford team as having a hangover, but they could be without Kevin Hogan, but even with Kevin Hogan or a not 100% Kevin Hogan this is far too many points.  First of all the oddsmakers set the total at 44 so this is a pretty large spread we are looking at here.

I'm going with the large home dog with Gary Anderson coaching up this defense that is really under rated, while we have already seen Stanford's offense look awful in the past.  I just don't think you can count on a consistent offense from Stanford week in and week out and I'm still not sold on David Shaw as a coach.  The one thing I know is Gary Anderson is going to get the most out of his defense, and they have shown it already in 2015.  I also like the fact that Seth Collins, Oregon State's QB is more mobile than Northwestern's QB Thorson.  Collins has already rushed for nearly 300 yards on 44 carries.  I would not be shocked to see Oregon State pull off the upset, but I think it may be too early in the Gary Anderson era for that. 

Cincinnati +10 4.4* NCAAF POD

Gunnier Kiel will most certainly play for the Bearcats at Memphis.  I can tell you one thing this line would not have opened up at 10 points before the season, but everyone is super high on Memphis after their exciting season last year and their 3-0 start to this year with their huge win against the MAC's Bowling Green on the road last week.  Memphis also won this game huge last year against Cincinnati on the road, but I expect a much more competitive game this time around. I truly think it's a sell high, buy low situation we are in here today, because the Bearcats are 0-3 ATS, while Memphis is 2-0-1 depending on when you bet on them last week.

Memphis was out gained against Bowling Green, and gave up yards on the ground and through the air as Matt Johnson torched this pass defense for 443 yards and 4TD's.  Gunner Kiel can definitely expect to do the same thing.  Memphis won this game by going 3-3 on 4th downs.  For Cincinnati on the surface they don't look like a great team right now.  They only beat Miami Ohio by 4 and were 21 point favorites, and they lost to Temple at home, but they did lose their QB against Miami Ohio, and against Temple they were +261 yards.  The Bearcats are converting on 56% of their third downs right now while the defense is holding opponents to 25%.  I actually like the Bearcats ability to win the game when it matters.  In the red zone they are allowing 45% TD percentage to go along with their third down success.  This was a team that held opponents on the road to 36% a year ago on third down and 44% in the red zone on TD%.

A lot of hype here in head coach Justin Fuentes, but he did have 17 starters returning last year to 11 this year.  Tough spot for his team to stay up for an entire 4 quarters after a back and forth road game.  Meanwhile Cinci appeared to be looking ahead towards this conference game.

Astros -169 4* MLB POD

Houston has been a dominant team at home all year going 51-25, while the Angels have been 32-43 on the road.  Houston has to keep pace with the Texas Rangers here, but this is more about the pitching match up for me.  Hector Santiago has really struggled the second half of the year and his surface stats (3.47 ERA) are much worse.  He's been even worse on the road hwere he's given up 15 ER over his last 3 in just 7.2 IP.  The guy has walked 22 guys in his last 7 starts spanning just 31 innings.  While he's had very good starts this season against the Astros allowing just 3 ERA, 2 of those 3 were early in the year and all 3 were at home.

Houston at home is killing lefties, and their starting pitcher tonight Lance Mccullers posts better numbers including 4 ER in 3 starts against the Angels this season while 2 of the 3 were on the road he gets to pitch at home tonight where he will be backed by a bullpen that's nearly 2 runs better in ERA in home and away splits.

Cleveland Browns +2 5.5* NFL POD

I am backing the Browns here at home, this line has moved about 5.5 points from where it should be and was before the season.  Both teams are predicted at 6 wins and the Browns should be 3 point home favorites.  However, oddsmakers know the public have short term memory and are only looking at the 31-10 loss at the Jets, and the Titans impressive domination of the Bucs on the road.

It's very difficult to win on the road in this league. It's very difficult to win with a rookie QB on the road in this league.  This week Marcus Mariotta and the Titans have to do both for the second week in a row against a defense that was ranked in the top 10 last year.  This is a step up in competition and if the Browns down't turn the ball over 5 times like they did a week ago we should see a win and a cover.  I also like Johnny Manziel with a full week of practice and reps with #1.  He actually did not look bad vs. the Jets, but unfortunately the Jets defensive line is nasty, and he should have much more time this week vs. the Titans. 

Texas +6.5 +101 5.5* NCAAF POD 

Texas was a 9.5 point favorite in this game a month ago, and perception has definitely left us with great value.  Even in Texas win last week they looked terrible, but had a 42-14 lead late which was lost leaving bettors upset with the final 42-28 score.  So now we have 2 teams coming in this is our classic buy low, sell high.  California bettors are extremely happy covering ATS by a margin of 2 TD’s in both of their games, and now they are an incredible 7 point favorite on the road against Texas!  We are already hearing the Charlie Strong should be fired cries, but I actually think Texas is in better shape and I really like their opportunity to pull the upset at home.  I’ll take the better defense + nearly a TD every single time at home.

Finally Tyrone Swoops seems to be gone and Jerred Heard has taken over after looking very very good against Rice with nearly 100 yards rushing and 130 yards passing with 2 TD and 0 interceptions.  Finally Texas might have a balanced offense and they face a Cal team with plenty of issues still on defense especially in the secondary.  San Diego State was able to have success against Cal and actually had the advantage in time of possession and I see Texas being able to do the same thing in this game with their offensive line and talented running backs.

Cal’s offense has looked great, but a red flag is their inability to convert on third downs at just 36%.  This team lost 2 offensive linemen, and they go up against a Texas defense that has a strength in the secondary although it hasn’t showed yet.  Texas was also 10th in sack % on defense last year while Cal was 95th in protecting their QB.  Goff did not play well against the top pass rush units in the PAC 12 a year ago.  There were 4 total teams in the top 25 in pass rush out of the Pac 12 and he avoided 2 of them, and faced 2 at home, but threw just 1 passing TD and had 4 interceptions (Washington/Stanford).  Texas is not there yet, but I think the confidence at home and the chip on their shoulder for being a 7 point dog to Cal will bring out the best.

Louisville +6 5.5* NCAAF POD / Louisville +210 1* play

Louisville has already been thoroughly tested by Auburn in the opener and a much improved Houston team with new head coach Tom Herman.  This is extreme line value as I believe it would have been pk'm if it was in week 1.  Clemson has literally played nobody and still has many red flags in my opinion and do not warrant being nearly a TD favorite on the road especially on a short week.  Two reasons why Louisville has value on this line and why they are large under dogs.  They lost to Auburn who nearly lost to Jacksonville State last week (Auburn clearly looking ahead to LSU), and Louisville lost last week to Houston at home as a double digit favorite, but Houston not getting any credit, and Louisville obviously cares more about their ACC schedule anyway.

This is fresh start for Louisville, and I believe they have the better coach in this one.  Louisville was pretty dominant in ACC play last year by the numbers and although they lost just as much as Clemson they acquired by transfers more depth, and arguably have a better overall team although that has not shown up yet.

Clemson has a real challenge here on the road on a short week vs. a very good coach in Petrino.  Deshawn Watson is getting a ton of hype and has been excellent, but remember this team lost 79 starts along their offensive line and return just 1 starter.  Watson warmed up against Wofford and Appalachian State and this game on the road is about to get much much faster.  Given who they have played there are some really big red flags.  Only 46% success rate on third down (Louisville is better at 48.15%), they turned the ball over 4 times, they are -3 in sacks differential, and they only rushed for 4.16 ypc.  Defensively this team is not an automatic top tier defense.  

Clemson lost 29 total letterman more than any other team in the ACC, and most of them on defense went to the NFL.  The defensive line was hit the hardest, and now we are talking about two key units that you need to have success when you step up in competition.  We are talking about the offensive and defensive line, and it's going to be difficult for Clemson to win the battle in the trenches.  Sure they have the better QB, but Louisville actually out gained this Clemson team on the road last year, but lost because of a fumble in the end zone.  Louisville will win this game if they take care of the ball.  For that reason I'm going to play a bit on the money line as well!

Mariners -145 4* MLB POD

I will take the Mariners at this price with Weaver pitching on the road you really have to be excited as he's posted a 6.24 ERA this year with his diminishing raw stats and velocity you really can't back this pitcher.  Iwakuma has slowly been returning to form and only has 100 innings on the year because he had to come back from injury.  Iwakuma has 6 of 7 quality starts at home vs. the Angels and has held them to .604 OPS in 209 AB.  Iwakuma's stats have been down this year, but I believe it's mostly due to poor luck which I feel has started to change in recent starts that he's been impressive in.  

Falcons +3.5 4.4* NFL POD

The Eagles are getting 60% or more of the action here and I saw this line creep up to 3.5 and I grabbed it!  The Eagles put up 36, 40, and 39 points in their first 3 games in the pre season, and have a ton of hype adding the pieces they did under Chip Kelly's offense.  The Eagles are highly bet by the public to open this season for good reason, but we can not ignore Matt Ryan's success at home and some of the changes the Falcons have made in the offseason.  I believe we are getting tremendous value here on the Falcons as a home dog.  I truly believe the Falcons can play and score right with the Eagles here tonight.  Ryan has a healthy offensive line and some dangerous weapons at his disposal, but the difference will be the defense. 

Dan Quinn takes over as the new head coach and they have added a lot of defensive minded coaches.  This will no longer be a soft Falcons defense under Quinn and DC Richard Smith, and Raheem Morris. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Sam Bradford hurt before the game is over in this one.  I really did not understand why the Eagles let Nick Foles go, but Bradford is not really an upgrade here and Demarco Murray came off a career year behind the league's best offensive line.  Expect the Eagles to make the mistakes that allow the Falcons to win this game and set the tone for their 2015 season.

Rams +4.5-- 5.5* MAX NFL POD

I even like the Rams to win this game outright.  This is a very early start for the Seahawks along with it being week 1.  I think the Seahawks have a lot more issues going into this season than they have had in the past with turnover, and their offensive line.  This OL has had some major issues and that's not a good match up going into week #1 against the Rams who have arguably the best defensive line in the league featuring Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Aaron Donald, Nick Fairley and Michael Brockers. 

Of course the Rams are without Todd Gurley, but I expect them to find creative ways to score, and the secondary of the Seahawks may not be as good especially if Chancelor is not back for this one.  Either way I like the value I'm getting here on the Rams and head coach Jeff Fisher is one of the best in the league and they did beat the Seahawks here at home last year along with Denver.  They have plenty of talent at the skill positions to give the Seahawks a big scare and I will probably bet they do pull the upset to start the season.

Colorado State +5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Colorado State did lose a lot in the offseason.  They lost their QB to the NFL, their head coach to Florida, and their top 2 tacklers on defense, but they do return 15 starters.   They hire Georgia’s OC Mike Bobo, and return arguably the best WR in the nation in Rashard Higgins along with 4 of the top 5 receivers from last season.  This was a very very good home team last year which I expect to continue, and they will host Minnesota in a game they had to have circled before the season. 

This is a tough spot for Minnesota going on the road and into altitude after facing TCU, a preseason favorite and nearly upsetting them.  Minnesota returns just 12 starters and they lost their best receiving option and runner in David Cobb who had 1629 yards last year.  Jerry Kill is a very good coach, but on the road this team seems to be not as good.  I really like what Colorado State did with their coaching staff and I think the defense will improve with the addition of Tyson Somers and a senior laden defense that should be able to defend against a one dimensional offense like Minnesota.

Colorado State was very good at home on defense in stopping teams on third down (37%) and in the red zone (60% TD’s), and Minnesota just was not the same with a QB rating that went down 18 points on the road, and a rushing attack that also went down by more than 1 yard per carry.  This is a nice value play for us here on Colorado State who will start the game in a no huddle and keep Minnesota off guard this entire game.  I expect them to have an excellent shot at pulling the upset.

[b]Brewers +111 5* MLB POD[/b]

I'm going to take a shot with the Brewers here.  I really like the fact that they have hit well down the stretch - .298 average last 20 games, same as the Blue Jays.  They also have the better bullpen in this match up and have hit much better vs. RHP over their last 10 games it's a difference of nearly 4 runs per game.  Both teams face a RHP in this match up.

Koehler takes the mound for Miami and he's had a solid season on the surface, but he's been very lucky with strand % and hit %, and his raw stats suggest his ERA should be 4.5 or higher.  He's also had issues with the Brewers allowing 16 ER in 14.1 IP in his 3 career starts dating back to the 2014 season.

On the other hand the Brewers are giving Ariel Pena a shot.  Pena has a very live arm with solid velocity around 95mph with lots of movement.  He's proven he can strike guys out int he minors, but control has been his issue in the past.  I think we saw some recent starts by him this past year that suggest he's ready for the big leagues, and now he gets his opportunity and will be highly motivated facing a Marlins team whose offense is nothing to be afraid of. 

Southern Miss +21.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

If there was ever a shot for Southern Miss to prove that they are turning this program around it's tonight.  Dan Mullen, HC of Miss State is already crying about the game start, and that defenitely trickles down to the players.  I believe Mullen is possibly the worst coach in the SEC, and I picked Miss State to finish last in the talented SEC West.  Miss State returns just 7 overall starters, but it feels like more, because they have the face of their program in Dak Prescott returning, but this team really struggled down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games, and I don't know that they can just hit that switch in game 1 in an instate road game with so many new guys filling in at new positions.  

Southern Miss on the other hand is definitely on the rise.  Todd Monkens 3rd year should pay dividends and people forget that this program had 19 straight winning seasons before their 4-32 record over the last 3 years.  Southern Miss has 15 guys returning, including their QB and all 5 of their offensive linemen.  This team should be much improved and I actually like their rebuilt defense which is filled in with transfers, but solid ones.  To start the season they will have two 300lb linemen in Quincy Russel and Andrew Bolton transfers from Texas and Kansas.  I also think Dak Prescott will be surprised if he tries to attack Southern Miss backfield which is under rated.

Miss State also has LSU up next, and can't be taking this team seriously.  We saw similar results last night with a better version of in state match ups between Michigan State and Western Michigan.  We are getting a worse power 5 school, and more points to work with and I love our chances here.  Western Michigan lost by just 13 and were driving late to pull within a score.

Hawaii +7.5 4.4* POD

Both of these teams head into the 2015 season with high hopes for improving and there are a lot of things to like about each for achieving that goal, but I think Hawaii really needs this game more, and Colorado's defense could have a hard time in this game.  Hawaii brings in USC transfer QB Max Wittek to take over an offense that returns 2 of their top receivers in Pedroza and Kemp and they bring in an offensive coordinator for the first time under Norm Chow.  Chow must really be a control freak, but he's on the hot seat and knows he had to do this.  Don Bailey comes over and he will feature an uptempo attack that he ran at FCS Idaho State.  Bailey brought Idaho State out of nowhere and they ranked 1st in passing offense and 2nd in total offense among FCS teams.  This offense will undoubtedly improve and they'll face Colorado whose ranked 116th, 110th, and 124th the last 3 years in yards per play allowed.

Hawaii was actually better than their record indicated last year with 4 net closes losses of 10 points.  They lost to open last year to Washington out of the PAC 12 by 1 point, and they'll face a Colorado team that is not as good as the Washington team was.  Colorado does have a very good QB, and WR tandem, but they showed an inability to close games last year and quickly ran out of options.  Hawaii's defense should be exciting in the back 7, and the DL will again have depth issues, but this is game 1 and this team really needs a win when you consider they have road games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise following this game. 

Michigan +5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I love the value we are getting with Michigan here on the road against Utah and I'm going to go ahead and make it an official max play.  First of all these two teams have a lot more in common then you'd think.  Strong defenses that will rely on the running game to win a game.  Both will play in a lot of close games and I can't imagine Michigan not being within a field goal here.  Utah's offense took some big hits in terms of playmakers and they go up against a very experienced Michigan defense.  I expect it to be a very low scoring game.  Utah's strength of a pass rush should not play a part on Thursday night I just don't see Iowa transfer Jake Rudock being asked to do a ton other than not turning the ball over.  Michigan was -16 in turnover margin last year and are among the teams that have a great chance at improving.  Since 1991 teams with -10 or more TO margin 79% improved or stayed the same.  The additiona of Jake Rudock from Iowa - 16TD / 5 INT will almost certainly guarantee that.

Utah also did not have the home field advantage it previously had losing to Washington State and Oregon last year and beating USC by 3.  Utah has a bigger game the following week against in state rival Utah State.  For Michigan this is a bigger game and Jim Harbaugh's coming out party.  It's rare that you will get a team like Michigan with an elite defense as a 5 point under dog on the road to open the season against a team whose offense returns just 6 starters and ranked 98th in yards per play on offense.  Bottom line... 

Michigan's defense is stronger - top 10 run defense home and away, they both have similar offenses with QB's that did not turn the ball over last year, and both can stop the run, but I believe Michigan is just a bit better on defense, and running the ball, and the coaching has improved significantly with a team that has always had more talent.  Jim Harbough in his past has taken a bit of time improving his teams, but his last two stops in college were San Diego taking them 7-4, and then 22-2 after, STanford was 16-40 before Harbough got there then went 9-15 and 20-6.  However, Harbough never got this much talent right away and I think the results should be truly amazing with a ton of close games because of this defense.  

Reds +128 4* MLB POD

I will go with the Reds here tonight just on the pitching match up alone.  The Reds offense has exploded scoring 26 runs in their last 3 games and they will have another chance to do the same tonight going up against Dan Haren, who they have pretty good number against.  Haren is a fly ball pitchers which does not bode well for him going into tonight's game at Wrigley.  Haren, has also struggled of late and is coming off a 100 pitch effort.  He has to be feeling the pressure at this point and so are the Cubs having lost 5 of 6 as their offense has really let them down scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of those games.

Enter Anthony DeSclafani whose stats on the year do not do him justice.  He's improved in the second half and actually has been much better on the road posting a 2.60 ERA.  He's got 3 starts against the Cubs this year and has only given up 2 ER, but he's facing them with better skills this time around.  The bullpens are relatively the same although the Cubs bullpen has not been doing very well of late.  I look for the Reds to take game 2 as well and really start to make the Cub fans worry while San Francisco and Washington make a run. 

Diamondbacks +100 5.5* MLB POD

I am going to take the home team here which is challenging when you go up against the Cardinals who just keep winning and tonight they have a pitcher on the mound that has a 2.99 ERA, but Lackey has struggled down the stretch before.  He's already at 165 innings this year and he's been worse on the road posting a 4.40 ERA and he goes up against Patrick Corbin, an All Star in 2013 who has pretty damn good numbers especially at home with 23K's in 23 IP and a 1.13 WHIP.  Corbin is also a lefty which tends to give the Carindals issues the last few years.  They are 24th in OPS vs. LHP and they are scoring a run less in home away splits vs. LHP than the Diamondbacks are vs. RHP.  The Diamondbacks have a capable offense and I see them getting to Lackey early while Corbin won't go deep the Diamondbacks have an above average bullpen that has an ERA of 2.64 over their last 10 games. 

Royals -130 5* MLB POD

I like the Royals here although they have somewhat of an unknown on the mound in Kris Medlen he was one of the best starters in the National League for quite a while and now he's being thrown into a playoff race I think we see him at his best again down the stretch.  He will be limited in pitches, but that's not a bad thing with what the Royals have out of their bullpen posting a 2.25 ERA on the season at home.

This is every bit of a fade Ubaldo Jimenez play as the the Royals are scoring 5.36 runs per 9 at home vs. RHP with a .279 average and have been very consistent.  JImenez #'s are not nearly as good as what they show and he's struggled with just 4 quality starts out of 13 on the road where he carries a 1.54 WHIP.  I'm just not buying Jimenez here and I'll take the Royals who are 38-14 in their last 52 games as a home favorite.  

[b]Reds +135 3.5* MLB POD[/b]

I am going to take the Reds here at home they are certainly due for a win and the Diamondbacks are coming on the road with Rubby De La Rosa on just 4 days rest, and a 4.66 road ERA.  David Holmberg has not been much better with a 5.95 ERA, but I think he has not been as bad as that when you consider he gave up 7 ER in 1 of his starts which was against the LA Dodgers who are 7th in OPS vs. LHP and that start was also on the road.  Here Holmberg will have some extra rest and I feel confident about him being able to give 5 solid innings and turn it over to a bullpen that has a 1.34 ERA over their last 10 games overall.  The Diamondbacks are also 8-21 in their last 29 games as a road favorite. 

Marlins +139 4* MLB POD

There is no way I can pass up the value we have tonight with the Marlins taking on the Brewers.  First of all they will put a lefty on the mound and the Brewers are just not that great against lefties ranking 29th in OPS.  Adam Conley is young, but he has good velocity for a lefty and in his two starts he has had to face 2 top 10 offensive teams vs. LHP.  I think he will have an easier time facing the Brewers here despite being on the road. 

The Brewers will start RHP Tyler Cravy who is also young making his 5th career start.  He's really struggled and that has been against some of the worst hitting teams in the league having not faced a top 10 offensive team yet.  When we look at the bullpens and the offenses I think it's a wash, but Miami has played better of late posting a 2.20 ERA out of the bullpen compared with Miami's 4.91 over their last 5 games. 

Giants +147 3.5* MLB POD

Braves +118 4* MLB POD

I will back the Atlanta Braves here at home as the home dog.  I think the pitching match up favors the Braves as Jake Peavy has been over valued already as in his last two starts were at home he faced two of the coldest offensive teams.  Both the Brewers and the A's are hitting below .215 over their last 7 games.  Atlanta has been very good at home going 27-20 and they send Shelby Miller to the mound who is very under valued because the Braves have lost each of his last 8 starts, but the fact is Miller is a consistent quality start guy and I don't see that changing here tonight at home where Miller carries a 1.89 ERA.

Diamondbacks +126 4* MLB POD

I like this value we are getting with Arizona here today as the Nationals just got swept by the Mets and they may be feeling the pressure and really pressing at the plate at this point, because they are hitting .192 over their last 5 games and scoring around 3 runs per game over their last 10.  They will send an average pitcher in Doug Fister whose stock is higher than he deserves.  His velocity is down he can't get batters to swing and miss and he has an ERA over 5 during night starts.  I'll back the young Zack Godley on longer rest here and it also is worth noting that the Diamondbacks have been hitting and their bullpen has been superb of late. 

Mariners +110 4* MLB POD

I will go with JA Happ over Phil Hughes here.  Happ's velocity is up and he's always a consistent quality starter without many disaster starts.  Phil Hughes is exactly opposite and we have seen him starting to decline of late with a 4.77 xERA over his last 5 starts alone.  He has a very weak swing and miss rate and has been extremely lucky with an 86% strand rate and I just don't see that continuing.  Meanwhile the Twins are not playing well and have dropped 4 in a row being outscored 33-18.  I will take the Mariners here today. 

Marlins -126 4* MLB POD

[b]Astros -114 4* MLB POD[/b]

I will back the Astros here on Sunday with Dallas Keuchel having a 1.83 ERA during day games and leading the majors with 16 quality starts.  Keuchel is also on extra rest which I feel will really benefit him at this point in the season.   It also pays that hte Royals are struggling at the plate and scoring just 2.65 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10.  Meanwhile the Astros are hitting well with 5.44 vs. RHP over their last 10 and Yordana Ventura has not been the same pitcher as last year.  Some have hinted towards injury, but I don't know if that's true as his velocity is still among the best in the majors.  Hitters are just making better contact as he is one of the highest percentages of medium/hard hit balls in the majors at 90%.  Both bullpens are top tier while Houston's offense is a bit better vs. RHP than KC is vs. LHP no matter what way you look at it, overall, home/away, last 5 or last 10 games overall.  The value is right and I'll go with the Astros who are top 10 in OPS and ERA during day games this year. 

Reds -105 4* MLB POD

I am going to go with the Reds hereas I think they have a significant advantage on the mound out of the bullpen and the starter.  Anthony DeSclafani has been above average on the road posting a 2.53 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and he is the type of pitcher that pitches down in the zone and produces more ground balls which makes him a good fit for Coors Field in my opinion.  His counterpart Eddie Butler had a 1.82 WHIP before being sent to AAA in early June.  The Reds have good pop against RHP and that should be a problem for Butler as the Reds have also been hot of late with a .779 OPS over their last 7 days.  The Rockies are not that deep in their rotation and their bullpen is a mess.  I expect the Reds to get a nice win on the road here tonight.  

[b]Royals -129 5.5* MLB POD[/b]

I am playing the Royals big here tonight. I really feel like we have the value in this match up with Charlie Morton going on the road to face Edinson Volquez who has been a very consistent starter this year.  Volquez is no longer ace material, but he can look like that against the Pirates who are 21st in OPS against RHP.  The Royals are 8th vs. RHP and will face Charlie Morton who has consistently struggled on the road.  This is also the rubber game in the series and the Royals just have the hotter hitting and the better overall bullpen with the better starter.  Volquez has a 2.95 ERA at home while Morton has a 8.20 on the road.  The Royals are playing with plenty of confidence right now and are 52-23 in their last 75 games vs. a RH starter while the Pirates are 17-37 in Mortons last 54 starts as a road dog.

Braves +127 4* MLB POD

I see great value in the Braves at home here today.  First of all the Dodgers are very far from home and they start Brandon Beachy who was lit up in his first start against the Brewers just 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery.  The Braves know Beachy well so the scouting report should be top notch while the Dodgers are seeing Matthew Wisler for the first time.  Wisler was the Padres #1 prospect before coming over to the Braves and he's gotten better with each start.  I like how he has good control for a young pitcher and while he's had 1 rough outing all of the others have been pretty good.  The Braves offense has struggled lately, but being back home and facing a guy like Beachy should help them out.  The Braves also have the better bullpen in this match up as well and they are 10-3 in their last 13 home games. 

Brewers +121 4* MLB POD

I see a ton of value here with Milwaukee being an under dog.  First of all the Pirates are on quite the run, but the All Star break sure does not help any momentum.  This team still can't hit and their defense is one of the worst in the majors ranking 26th.  They will have the better pitcher on the mound here in Francisco Liriano, but he's had bad outings at Miller Park posting a 6.75 ERA over the  last 3 years.  He's had his share of struggles with a .824 OPS against these hitters and unlike his opponent he has struggled more during night starts than day starts and he's on shorter rest than Jimmy Nelson.

Nelson is on 5+ days rest has had excellent success against the Pirates and during night games, but why I really like him for this start is the fact that he has been lights out on extra rest.  In 5 starts on 5 or more days rest he posts a 1.56 ERA.  He's been getting better and better and he posts an elite 11% swing and miss rate.  He's 2-1 with a 1.00 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Pirates this season.  I see no reason why it should change. 

[b]Red Sox -140 5* MLB POD[/b]

I like the Sox here tonight.  More so I am going to fade Ivan Nova.  Despite his ERA under 3, he is definitely not the same pitcher after 3 starts off the disable list.  He's been pretty lucky in each start as he nearly has a 1:1 K/9 vs. BB/9 ratio as his xFIP shows his ERA should be closer to 5 or higher.  He's been extremely lucky and I think that runs out here against the Red Sox who are playing their best baseball at the moment.  They are scoring over 5 runs per 9 over their last 10 overall games and they are coming off a loss at home to the Yankess which I like them to bounce back with their young gun Eduardo Rodriguez going posting a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.69 ERA overall and his raw stats are right in line with that.  Even better news is the Yankees have never faced him and they typically struggle against new starters.  Take the Sox here.

[b]Pirates -102 5* MLB POD[/b]

I really like this match up here.  Jeff Locke has been great at home posting a 2.64 ERA and he's really pitched quite well over his career against the Cardinals winning 2/3 of his starts against them.  Carlos Martinez is having a career year right now, but I believe he will come back to earth his raw stats are not really as impressive as his misleading ERA.  The Cardinals also struggle vs. LHP ranking 26th while scoring over a run less per 9 than they do against RHP.  Pittsburgh's offense is much better with this match up and they have given Martinez problems.  In 2 career starts he's allowed 11 ER in 11.1 IP.  Look for the Pirates to take this game. 

Astros +125 4* MLB POD

Cubs -125 5.5* MLB POD

I like the Cubs in Thursday's day game for various reasons.  First of all the Dodgers coming from the west coast to play in a day game starting a pitcher who is young and inexperienced on 4 days rest in a day game on the road is going to be a major challenge.  Carlos Frias has a 2.96 ERA on the road this year and that may be what's giving us some value, but he's got a 9.28 ERA during day starts and he's got a 7.72 ERA during his 4 starts on 4 days rest and this is his second start in a row on 4 days rest.  Meanwhile the Cubs bullpen is better especially looking at home/away splits where they have a run advantage and they post a 1.66ERA over their last 10.

The Cubs will start the veteran Jon Lester who is going up against the Dogers who are scoring 1.33 runs per 9 less vs. LHP than RHP.  They also have a .220 average and 2.16 runs per 9 over their last 10 overall vs. LHP.  Lester has far better stats with a nearly 4:1 ratio for K/BB while Frias does not even meet the 2:1 ratio which is a big red flag.  Lester also has pitched well during day starts with a 1.75 ERA and he's been very good on 4 days rest.  Take the Cubs here. 

Twins -141 4* MLB POD

Today's pitching match up between John Danks and Tommy Milone is pretty even for both south paws who have similar raw stats.  The major advantage is their individual performance against opposing hitters.  Milone has had 4 of 5 QS in 32.1 IP allowing just 5 ER against the White Sox hitters while opposing hitters have a combined .564 OPS against him.  White Sox are also ranked 30th in OPS vs. LHP this year.

Meanwhile Danks has allowed 20 ER over his last 4 starts against Minnesota and looking back to his last 6 starts at Minnesota see's a history of struggles in every start adding up to 30 ER in 30 IP.  The Twins are scoring over 2 runs more per 9 innings vs. LHP on the year and their bullpen is about a run higher when you look at the home/away splits.  The offense has struggled a bit lately, but so have the White Sox.  I believe the value here is right as the line should be more like -160 or so.  Take the Twins. 

Oakland Athletics -129 5.5* MLB POD

I really like the A's here to bounce back from their 2 game losing streak after they had won 4 in a row.  Their offense is killing it right now and all they need is the right match up which is what we have today in a day game.  First of all the A's pitching staff is 5th in ERA during day games while the Angels are 30th, dead last in OPS during day games and they come in with a 5-11 record.

Jesse Hahn will make the start for Oakland and he has a career ERA under 2 in day starts.  I really like his chances going up against the Angels who hit LHP better anyways.  Jerred Weaver on the other hand will have his hands full.  While Weaver has a great history against Oakland his last 3 starts at Oakland have not been as great allowing 14 ER in 19.2 IP.  His 5.57 ERA on the road and the fact that both left handed batters and right hand batters are hitting him hard leaves me to worry.  Weaver has not pitched well in his 2 day starts and he will be on 4 days rest here for the 3rd game in a row and has posted a 6.64 ERA this month.  He'll face Oakland who has been killing RHP scoring 7 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. RHP.  They also hit the curve and change very well which are pitches Weaver definitely leans on throughout an outing.  I'm expecting Oakland to bounce back here with a nice win after losing 12-7 the night before. 

[b]Braves +102 4* MLB POD[/b]

There is a lot of value here on the Braves as the Red Sox offense is really beat up right now.  Shelby Miller actually has the edge over Clay Bucholz in this spot. Both whom are on 4 days rest and Miller has the edge with a 1.59 ERA in his home starts to go along with a 0.97 WHIP.  He's had 5 of 6 quality starts on 4 days rest this year and all 3 at home were great including a complete game shut out.  Bucholz on the other hand has had 3 of 5 quality starts on 4 days rest and 2 he gave up 4 ER without getting past the 5th inning.  Right now Atlanta is a little better vs. RHP and their bullpen has started to turn things around while Boston has struggled.  I look for for the Braves to win back to back games here.  

[b]Giants -110 4.5* MLB POD[/b]

We have an interesting battle here between two similar starting pitchers in terms of raw stats, but I'll take the veteran at home over the youngster on the road on just 4 days rest.  Walker has a 8.27 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP on the road this year and in 3 road starts on 4 days rest he's allowed 16 ER in 12.2 innings pitched.  The Giants are a very good offense ranking 6th in OPS vs. RHP and I see Walker getting bounced out of this game early.  Hudson meanwhile can get by with his experience and it should help that the Mariners batters only have a 74 AB against him for a .520 OPS.  Hudson has a 1.17 WHIP at home and his bullpen is also better.  He also gets to go against the Mariners offense which is 28th in OPS vs. RHP. 

Cubs -115 4.5* MLB POD

Johnny Cueto starts for the reds on 4 days rest on the road after a 103 pitch effort last time out.  Cueto has not been nearly as good on the road this year as he typically is and I actualy think the Cubs have great value here with Jason Hammel.  Hammel has 5 days rest along with being at home and having better raw stats than Cueto.  Hammel has an amazing 9:1 K/BB ratio on the year and it's not like the Reds are tearing the cover off the ball.  .228 average 3.02 runs per 9 on the road vs. RHP.  Reds are really better vs. LHP, and their bullpen is not nearly as good as the Cubs.  Overall I just think the Cubs have every advantage including the starting pitcher, offense, bullpen, and home field advantage.  Take the Cubs.  

[b]Royals -129 4* MLB POD[/b]

I really like the Royals here on Sunday while the starting pitchers are not very exciting we have an excellent advantage and the value is right for us to play the Royals big.  First of all Colby Lewis who has given up 21 runs in his last 4 starts alone is going on 4 days rest on the road during a day start.  I don't anticipate him being able to go deep into the game when he has a 5.56 ERA on the road, and a 11.70 ERA during day starts in fact Texas is last in the league in ERA during day games and KC is #7 in OPS during day games.  I expect the Royals to look to avoid the sweep in their home park and they will send Jeremy Guthrie to the mound who has 6 straight quality starts vs. the Rangers.

Even if both pitchers don't do well we have the Royals superior bullpen ranking #1 in the majors up against the Rangers 26th ranked bullpen and the majority of their pitchers are worse during day games which is a big advantage here for the Royals.   

Marlins +107 4* MLB POD

This is a veteran battle with Dan Haren taking on Jon Lester.  Both starters have essentially the same ERA on the year, but Haren will start at home and has a far better WHIP.  Lester will also face the Marlins a top 10 offense vs. LHP and he's struggled vs. some of their veteran hitters in 87 AB vs. Lester the Marlins have a .391 average and 1.004 OPS.  Lester is however on 5+ days rest, but he seems to have his worst outings in that situation and it's hard to see him getting to up for a game in Miami at this point in his career.

Haren on the other hand faces a struggling Cubs offense that is scoring just 2.74 runs per 9 over their last 5 and he has held these hitters in check.  IN 73 AB they have a .219 average and a .571 OPS.  I'm expecting Miami to be able to steal this game from the road team and getting them as an under dog to me is a steal. 

[b]Angels -111 4* MLB POD[/b]

The Blue Jays are really struggling especially their starters and now their bullpen is also a mess and it seems to be bleeding over to the hitters as well as their average has dropped .25 pts in the last 10 games alone.  Dickey makes the start for the Jays, but so far he has not pitched well with 3 quality starts in 8 tries.  I think Shoemaker who has also struggled has better raw stats that should lead to greater success and the Angels bullpen is a half run better on the season. 

Orioles -130 4* MLB POD

Orioles -109 4* MLB POD

This is decent value here for the home team although they have the bullpen disadvantage they have the advantage on the mound here.  Wei-Yen Chen has allowed 3 ER or less in 9 of his last 10 starts vs. the Rays and he's got a career 3.26 ERA over 13 against them.  He's on extra rest here (7 days) and the Orioles have gone 21-8 in his last 29 home starts.  Baltimore offensively has the clear cut advantage and Nate Karns should not scare them.  IN fact in 30 AB against him they have a 1.132 OPS.  Karns is also walking 5 per 9 innings and has been lucky that his ERA isn't worse than the numbers show considering the .194 batting average balls in play.  That's extremely lucky and I think he has a tough task ahead of him facing the Orioles who are scoring 6.59 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home this year. 

Braves +100 4.5* MLB POD

These odds are great for the home team.  The Braves bullpen has been so bad this year I normally would not touch this team, but they come into this game facing a team with a bullpen that is just as bad if not worse.  So in reality it's an even trade off so looking at the starting pitching I see the Braves in a significant advantage based on a few variables. 

Jason Marquis is coming off a high effort 8 innings 2 ER on 113 pitches and at his age that will be hard to duplicate going on the road on just 4 days rest against Atlanta who is 11th in OPS vs. RHP.  Atlanta's offense is not elite, but at home and against RHP they have been pretty damn good.  They are scoring more than a run per 9 better vs. RHP and have averaged 5+ runs per 9 at home vs. RHP and 6.35 in their last 5 games overall.  Freeman, Markakis, Maybin and AJ P all have good numbers against Marquis.

For Atlanta they will start Eric Stults who in reality won't get anyone excited about wagering.  However, Stults is pretty consistent and when you look at the fact he's done pretty well vs. 4 top 11 offenses to start the year and now he faces the Reds who are 22nd in OPS vs. LHP and 20th on the road there is a lot to be excited about at this value which says the Braves are under dogs which I can no accept given all the facts we have outlined.

Astros -115 4.5* MLB POD

I'm going to go with the Astros here who come in red hot scoring 9.20 runs per 9 over their last 5 games while posting a 1.26 bullpen ERA meanwhile the Mariners who are supposed to be the better team come in on the opposite side of the spectrum scoring under 3 runs per game and a bullpen ERA over 3.  Bullpen is extremely important in this one as they are likely to go to it very early and the Astros have the advantage.  Seattle's bullpen has not been as good early as they were overall last year and James Paxton has been unable to go deep into games.  Paxton will be on the road on 4 days rest which is no easy task for him considering he's been on normal rest all season long.  He's also faced some easy talent along the way with his opponents ranking 17th, 24th, and 23rd in OPS vs. LHP.  Seattle is 18th, but still come in on fire and are certainly capable of defeating him by being patient.

The Astros will start the veteran Scott Feldman who has allowed .669 OPS to the Mariners hitters and posts a 2.67 ERA over the last 3 years in April.  He's off to a slow start, but really it was only 1 start that he struggled as he has had to face Oakland twice already who is the 5th ranked offense vs. RHP.  In this game he can relax a bit facing Seattle who is 22nd.  I just think the value is right because many are high on Seattle, but they can struggle offensively and I don't trust the young kid Paxton on the road with just 4 days of rest.  

Cubs +107 4* MLB POD (Cole/Hendricks)

I'm going to back the Cubs as they go for the sweep of the Pirates.  On paper it looks like the Pirates have a good chance to win game 3 here, because Hendricks numbers are not very impressive from an ERA perspective over 5, but when you really look at it Hendricks has a 1.09 ERA his 49.3% left on base % is extremely unlucky.  He also had to face two of the best hitting teams in his 3 starts in the Padres and the Rockies (on the road).  He's back at home with an extra day of rest compared with his opponent who is on 4 days rest and on the road which is really like 3.5 days.  Hendricks pitched well enough vs. the Pirates to get a win, but was a little unlucky and I bet that changes here at home.  Pittsburgh is 25th in OPS vs. RHP and are scoring 2 runs less per 9 over their last 5 games while the Cubs bullpen has out performed them so far in this early season.

Gerrit Cole is a stud and should be around for years, but I will fade him on the road on short rest. His previous 3 starts at Wrigley have been average allowing a 4.00 ERA and I expect the Cubs to only need a couple of runs to get a win.  Cole also is off a season high 108 pitches which could factor in here.  I look for the Cubs to continue their early season success and get the sweep!

Athletics -145 4.5* MLB POD

I will take Oakland in this spot following being swept at home they get a day off with the Angels coming to town.  It's not like the A's have played poorly offensively.  They have really struggled vs. LHP ranking 29th in OPS, but they face Jerred Weaver a RHP whicht hey have success against.  His last two starts in Oakland did not go well 12.2 IP 20 base runners and 8 ER.  His velocity is down 3 mph on average from last year and he's giving up 25% line drives on batted balls.  He's never been a good raw stat guy, but he's gotten by with insane numbers at home, but over the last 3 years his ERA is 1.40 worse on the road.  In 2011 it was 2.93 which is exceptional, 2012 3.21, 2013 4.00, and then 2014 4.70 when he had a 2.68 ERA at home.  Weaver is just not a road dog and you simply can't back him going 7-19 in his last 26 as a road dog.

Oakland's hurler Sonny Gray has great numbers against the Angels with a 2.57 ERA over 6 career starts.  He's also held Pujols and Trout to 5-32 in his career which is pretty special.  Angels right now are 25th in OPS vs. RHP and their bullpen is starting to show their true colors.  Oakland hits RHP hard at home with 6.21 runs per 9 and I think with a day off they will be hungry to rebound behind arguably their best starter in Gray. 

Cubs -120 4* MLB POD

I like the Cubs int his spot and think they have a significant enough advantage on the mound tonight with Jason Hammel stepping up to face the Pirates in his second start in a row.  Hammel will be back at home for this one where he has 2 7 inning performances a year ago against the Pirates allowing just 5 ER combined.  Hammel has had some bad luck this year to start and his raw stats indicate he should get his ERA back down in the 3's.  He's striking out more than 8 per 9 and he's walking less than 1 per 9.  That's impressive when you consider Vance Worley is walking 4 guys per 9 innings right now.

Worley also on 4 days rest and going on the road which is not an easy task for anyone.  Worley is off 106 pitches in his last outing which was also against the Cubs who are ranked higher than the Pirates in OPS vs. RHP 13th vs. 22nd.  I also like the fact that Hammel in his last 3 years has a 2.64 ERA in his April starts v.s Worley who has a 4.45.  Worley has been the luckier starting pitcher so far this year and the Cubs are coming in hot at the right time scoring 5.81 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5 games. 

Bucks +3.5 4.4* NBA POD

I had the Bucks the other night and we lost by 1 point ATS.  I pointed out how in game 1 they could not have played worse and they picked up their defense big time in game 2 holding the Bulls to just 11 points to start the first quarter.  In the end their offense struggled because of it and they shot 35.6% from the field were at a 10 FTA disadvantage and 16 rebound disadvantage.  They also gave up 12 three's in the game to the Bulls.  I just don't see them playing that poorly for all 4 quarters again and in fact I think they'll win this game.   

Blue Jays -130 4.5* MLB POD

This is a good spot to take the Jays as a small favorite at home.  First of all we have Chris Tillman on the mound going on the road on just 4 days rest to face the Jays who he has struggled against.  He's actually off 105 pitches in his last game as well and in his last 4 vs. Toronto he has an ERA near 9.00.  Over the last 3 years he's got an ERA at nearly 7 for his starts at Toronto who have a .877 OPS against.  The good thing for the Jays is they have been hitting the ball despite struggles from two of their best hitters, but it appears Edwin Encarnacion has figured it out as he belted 2 HR in Tuesday's game and has hit Tillman hard in the past.

Jays will counter with Hutchison who has struggled to start the year in 2 of his 3 starts, but he's a bounce back pitcher and is following 2 poor starts and will be on 5 days rest.  He's got a career 2.29 ERA vs. the Orioles and a 1.71 ERA in 4 home starts against them.  I'm betting he bounces back and the Jays also have the better bullpen as Baltimore ranks 27th in bullpen ERA.

Mariners -115 4* MLB POD
Taijuan Walker had a great spring and is off to a horrid start, but that's what gives us good value here.  Along with the fact that Mchugh, the Astros starter is off to a great start.  The difference is Walker has had two starts on the road vs. two top 5 offenses while McHugh has been at home vs. 1 top 5 and a 28th ranked offense.  I think everything will change here for these starters as Walker will be more in his comfort level having had 4 starts vs. the Astros in the past with very good results holding them to a .219 average.  He also gets to go against Houston's offense which is ranked 26th in OPS vs. RHP.  Seattle has the better offense and just came off 11 runs a day ago expect that to carry over here.

Padres +120 4* MLB POD

I will play the Padres here tonight as I expect them to have a pretty significant advantage with or without Justin Upton.  The odds are in our favor here as Jorge De La Rosa takes the mound for the first time against a hot hitting Padres bunch.  The Padres are just tearing the cover off the ball right now led by the resurgence of Matt Kemp.  This team is 4th in OPS vs. LHP and collectively are hitting .388 wiht a 1.035 OPS against De La Rosa over a 139 AB.  Kemp is 15-39 with 3 HR against the south paw.  De La Rosa also struggles in his night starts and in April over the last 3 years with ERA's over 4 for both.

San Diego will give Despaigne another start and although he had challenges on the road last year I think he's good enough to get it to the bullpen with a lead.  He has good stuff and had 7 shutout innings in August with 8 K's against the Rockies.  The Padres have a significant advantage out of their bullpen while the Rockies bullpen is not well rested since they haven't had one starter go past the 6th inning over their last 10 games.  I just like that we get an under dog here with the stronger pitching and the hotter bats.  More of a reason to play the Padres here tonight. 

Bucks +8 4.4* NBA POD

In my opinion the Bucks could have not played a worse game to start the series and that could have happened for a variety of reasons.  They still only lost by 12 points despite shooting 39% from the field, 25% from beyond the arch and 65% from the foul line.  I believe the Bucks bench really takes over this game tonight and I fully expect them to be in down to the wire.  The Bulls looked great, but I don't anticipate Derek Rose being that good in the second game in a row.  The Bulls scored 60 points in the first half and that's just not typical as I expect the Bucks to rebound here in a big way led by some of their guys off the bench.

Pelicans +12.5 4.4* NBA POD

The early money has pushed this spread 2.5 points from where it opened and I just don't see the oddsmakers being off by that much when predicting the market on this game.  I think the Pelicans have been in playoff mode for the last few weeks while the Warriors had their seed clinched weeks ago.  I also think it's difficult for the Warriors to cover this number without shooting extremely well from beyond the arch and the Pelicans were ranked 2nd in the league in 3 point defense.  They also have arguably the best player in basketball and certainly the best big man in Anthony Davis.  Davis is a match up nightmare for the Warriors as he proved by averaging just under 30 points 13 rebounds and 4 blocks vs. the Warriors in the regular season. I think the health and return of Jrue Holliday will make the difference as New Orleans keeps this game close throughout. 

Cardinals -139 4* MLB POD

The Cardinals are already off to a great start, but now their offense is starting to come alive with 4 or more runs in 7 straight games and they have hit much better off RHP which they will face here today.  Homer Bailey makes his first start after a so so year in 2014.  Bailey is coming off the DL to start the year and I don't anticipate him going deep into this game which means more issues for the Reds bullpen which is already ranked 27th to start the year with a 4.70 ERA compared with the Cardinals fresh bullpen ranking 3rd with a 1.82 ERA.  Bailey also has had enormous issues with the Cardinal hitters in 200 AB against he's allowed a .360 average and a 1.013 OPS.  Sure he's had his occasional quality start, but he's just got a lot going against him against a healthy Cardinals line up that just has really killed him in the past.  Bailey also has not been typically at his best in April posting a 4.10 ERA over the last 3 years along with a 3.93 ERA during those day starts.

Cardinals will start somewhat of an unknown here to the majority of the public in Carlos Martinez.  Martinez is the typical Cardinal young stud pitcher.  He's pitched a lot in the bullpen and is making his slow transition into the starting rotation.  This can be his year, but he's still just 23.  Martinez has one of the best swing and strike rates at 12.9% and he's already proven it against this line up in his first start of the year going 6 innings and striking out 8.  He allowed 2 runs but both were off solo home runs which I expect him to eliminate here at home.  He also does not have to go deep into this game as the Cardinals bullpen is strong after Wacha and Lackey went 7 innings the last two nights.  Martinez weakness is walking guys, but the Reds are in the bottom half of the league in drawing walks and were 25th in walks a year ago while being in the top half of the league in strikeouts.  This is a good match up for Martinez and I don't think 1 start vs. the Reds will be enough for Cinci to have any type of advantage. 

Jays +100 4* MLB POD

You won't get the Jays as an under dog very often this year at home.  This is a superior offense that has scored double digit runs in 3 of their last 6 games.  The line is explained by Chris Archer and his success in Toronto along with his first start success which was 7 shutout innings of the Miami Marlins.  It's much different having a second quality start for Archer in a row against an offense that is much better than Miami.  The Rays are also 6-13 in his last 19 starts following a quality starts.  Archer has the potential, but he's not really consistent and I look for some of the same problems to factor in with tonight's game.  I also feel that the oddsmaker is not giving Aaron Sanchez enough credit.  He struggled vs. the Orioles, but I think he'll be fresh for this game and will be able to get it to the bullpen with the lead.  Sanchez was electric out of the bullpen last year with a 1.09 ERA in 33 innings out of the bullpen. 

 Angels -125 4* MLB POD

We are getting great value here with the Angels with this line dropping 30 points here.  First of all Weaver struggled in his first start against Seattle on the road, but that's nothing new for him.  Weaver is never going to have the sexy raw stats, but I'll take him at home at this number where he has posted a 2.57 ERA over the last 3 years.  He's also posted a 2.84 ERA over that time in April/May starts and a 1.38 ERA vs. the Royals.  Guthrie on the other hand has not had as great success with a .843 OPS vs. the Angels hitters allowing 10 HR in 157 AB.  He has 30 GS in April/May over the last 3 years and an ERA over 4.20.  KC has started hot this year, but still even the best teams lose about 40% of their games. 

Pacers/Pistons U193 3.3* play

I don't see the Pistons giving much effort in this one and they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league on any given night.  The Pacers are still trying to get into the playoffs so I expect their defense to be playing at its highest level which it has of late.  Pacers trail the 8th and final spot by one game and this is a high total for them.  I also like the fact that the Pistons have gone over in their last 2 so their offense is due to be shut down by one of the leagues best defenses. 

[b]Bulls/Heat Under 191.5 3.3* play[/b]

A lot on the line here for both teams and most of the meetings previously went under the number they are setting here tonight.  With playoff implications like the Bulls playing for home court I believe we will see a defensive intensity here.  I'll take the under. 

[b]Charlotte/Miami U189.5 3.3* play[/b]

Both teams are trailing the Celtics by 1 and 1.5 games for the final spot in the east and I believe the defensive intensity is going to be high for this meeting.  The recent history between the Heat and Charlotte have been defensive oriented as well with an average of 175.3 pts per game this season so I think we get great value at 189.5 especially with playoffs on the mind of both teams. 

[b]Orioles -113 3.5* MLB POD[/b]

I think this is a pitching mismatch with the experienced Chen facing off against Nathan Karns who has 24 innings in his career in the big leagues.  Chen has been a proven commodity and this Orioles team is still built to win this year and they get Chris Davis back tonight as well after server the 25 game suspension.  Chen also looked better than Karns did int he spring this year so I'm giving him a huge edge on the hill and the price I'm asked to pay is not too expensive. 

Wisconsin -115 4.5* NCAAB POD 

The Badgers are the experienced team here.  Duke has enough to get by here, but I worry they won't be able to match the complete effort of Wisconsin.  Wisconsin has far too many weapons here and you remember they lost in December by 10 points to Duke.  Ironically they played their worst defensive performance against Duke in that game as the Blue Devils shot 71% in the second half alone and 65% overall.  It would be near impossible for Duke to have the same type of effort here and I also think they greatly benefited by having extra time to prepare for that game.  They had Stanford on November 22nd and then Furman followed by Army with Elon on deck meanwhile Wisconsin had Georgetown and Oklahoma followed by Marquette which is a much more challenging stretch.  Either way this Wisconsin team seems to be on their way after defeating Kentucky.  I don't worry about a let down here as they are led by senior Frank Kaminsky and Bo Ryan is one of the most under rated coaches in all of basketball. 

Marlins/Braves Under 7 3.3* MLB POD

I'll start out the year with an under despite this game being in Miami I feel the pitching is always ahead of the hitting at this point in the year.  I also believe Atlanta lost a ton of talent and Miami will start Henderson Alvarez who posted a 1.60 ERA in 90 innings at home last year.  Julio Teheran counters with a 2.89 ERA overall last year and both teams are backed by solid bullpens.  I have no reason to believe a lot of runs will be scored.  The Marlins had the 6th best bullpen a year ago and return pretty much everyone and the Braves always have a solid pitching staff.  Take the under. 

Michigan St +6 5.5* NCAAB POD / 2* bonus on ML +220

I really just don't see this line getting any higher so I'm going to snatch it at +6.  I really think Michigan State can win this game as they are peaking at the right time.  Duke is extremely young and I really worry about the week off and the increase in press.  Now Coach K is an exceptional coach for those distractions, but in the end Michigan State is getting a lot of disrespect.  The alleged height advantage they have is not that significant when you take into consideration that the Spartans rebound extremely well and they also alter opponents shots ranking in the top 50 in shot block%.  Duke relies heavily on Jahlil Okafor and I could see him getting in foul trouble early here or at least that will be part of the strategy.  Look these teams met very early in the year and Duke won by 10 points.  Michigan State played their worst defensive game and still lost by 10 points.  They are a much better team  and their NCAA success is very impressive beating Oklahoma, Louisville, and of course Virginia to get here.

[b]SUNS +13 3.3* NBA POD[/b]

I will back the Suns here knowing they are a desperate team right now that can not lose meanwhile the Warriors have the #1 seed locked up.  The Warriors have covered 8 of their last 10 which I feel is a good reason for Vegas to raise the price to play them, but this team may start to take it easy now as far as intensity goes while the Suns should be laying it all out to win this game which I believe they will have a shot at in the end.  

Louisville +2.5 4.4* POD;

Louisville U59 1H 2.2*;

Louisville +6.5/ Gonzaga +6.5 3.3* teaser;

Gonzaga +1.5 1H 2.2*

nc st +2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD - 1h UNDER 2.2* 

[b]Notre Dame +2 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

Notre Dame has not even come close to playing their best game meanwhile Wichita State just got done beating their in state rival Kansas.  They barely ever play, but it was a huge game and win for Wichita and now they have to face a Notre Dame team that has not played their best game and are certainly do.  I think Notre Dame comes out and wins this game getting to the elite 8 and I think they are under dogs, because a lot of people knew people would be jumping on them after beating Kansas.  I'm not buying into it and I think Notre Dame plays their best game yet.

[b]UNC +10.5 / UCLA +12.5 3.3* PLAY[/b]

Two of the highest seeds left in the tournament playing some very good teams, but both of these programs have plenty of talent to pull off an upset.  I can't see either of them losing by double digits so I'll tease them since we have been losing a lot by 1-2 points.  

Northern Iowa -2 4.4* NCAAB POD 

BONUS PLAYS INCLUDE

SD ST +5.5 1ST HALF 2.2* 

IOWA +3 1ST HALF 2.2* 

NC State +9.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

NC State comes off a very big win as they came behind with a ton of confidence down 16 to defeat LSU.  Nova looked great the entire day and cruised to an easy win, but this is a team that is partial to the upset.  NC State played a very difficult schedule this year out of conference and in conference where they did defeat UNC, Duke, and North Carolina.  I think this line is a bit inflated due to Villanova's seed and blowout in the first round, and NC State has proven they can hang with a team of Villanova's caliber. 

Maryland -4.5 4.4* POD

This is a dangerous team in the tournament and I just don't think Valpo stacks up here at all.  Valpo did not have a good strength of schedule in conference or out of conference and the two teams they did play who are usually pretty decent (New Mexico, Missouri) were not in the top 200, but they still lost by double digits.  Maryland has 9 wins against tournament teams including MIchigan State twice, Iowa State and Wisconsin for an impressive resume.  They have a SR guard in Dez Wells who will take over a game and can score from all over including the FT line.  They also have to other guys that will get to the FT line in Trimble and Layman and they have some big enough guys to contend with Valpo's trio.  More athleticism and great guard play here will be the difference. 

Texas -1 5.5* NCAAB POD

Texas is not supposed to be in right?  Their coach is going to be fired, but I'm not buying it this is a very good team #1 2 point defense in the country and really played well down the stretch against some tough competition.  This 2 point defense allows 37.8% and Butler will rely heavily shooting 71% of their shots from 2 point range and are ranked 203rd in 2 point % so they are going to have a real tough time scoring points in this one.  Meanwhile their defense is ranked 153rd in 2 point defense and Texas 2 point offense is better at 130th.  9 of 10 of Butler's losses were against man defense which is what Texas will play.  Texas also 4th in rebounding % and have a huge size difference along with the fact that they are a much deeper team relying on their bench for 40% of the minutes.  Isiah Taylor is the better guard in this match up and the combo of Myles Turner, Holmes and Rolley will be too much for the perennial Cinderella team in Butler. 

Portland Blazers -2 3.3* NBA POD

Grabbing this line early here I just think Portland is in a better spot in this game.  First of all Miami comes in after a huge emotional win over a hot Cleveland team and now they have to face a very good Blazers team.  I think we see a line that is a couple of points off in this one and while Portland has the #4 2 point defense, Miami has the 22nd defense.  In fact they are below average vs. 3 point shooting also ranking 22nd.  Portland is 7-1 straight up vs. teams in the bottom 10 in the league in both.  Miami meanwhile who shoots 70% + shots from inside the arch are 1-8-1 ATS vs. the top 5 team in the NBA in 2 point defense and went 2-8 straight up. 

[b]NETS -145 4* NBA POD[/b]

I'm willing to pay a premium here on the line to get back into the win column.  I'll be back later today with our NCAAB POD as well as we continue to be selective until the NCAA Tournament kicks off.  This is New Orleans 4th game in 5 nights and they are coming off a couple of big wins while the Nets are very well rested.  The Pelicans are also short without Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holliday which I feel will be a big factor down the stretch which is where the Nets have been struggling, but tonight they will have rest on their side. 

4.4* NBA POD on Nets -1.5

Minnesota Twolves +4.5 3.3* NBA POD
Portland is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the previous 2 were against playoff teams. Now they have to face the Twolves who lets be honest is not on their radar. On deck is the Houston Rockets who are tied with them in the West playoff picture. I expect a little look a head and a spot for Portland to relax just a bit too much as Minnesota can beat good teams especially at home.

Duquesne +7.5 4.4* NCAAB POD

Millions watched as Davidson defeated VCU on Thursday night in what was considered a "bubble game"  With just 1 day rest they have to travel to finish up against Duquesne on the road after a 82-55 win.  This is a huge letdown spot for the visitors with just 1 day of rest.  Davidson dominated the Dukes back on February 7th winning 95-69, and I look at a similar situation with arguably the best team in the A10 in Dayton who beat the Dukes 81-55 at home and went on the road to lose 83-73 on February 21st.  The Dukes have been extremely competitive and unfortunate at home.  They lost to St. Bonaventure in OT, to VCU by just 6, Rhode Island by 1, but have some excellent wins over Dayton and George Mason, and George Washington at home.  I think they'd like to close out the season with one more great performance. 

Wizards -1 3.3* NBA POD

Syracuse +6 4.4* NCAAB POD

Utah -1.5 3.3* POD
I expect Utah to get revenge here tonight on Arizona. Both teams are pretty evenly matched and Arizona probably does have more talent, but Utah is one of the most efficient teams in the country on defense and offense. Arizona has already lost 3 times on the road and 2 of those losses that team was top 50 in 2 point defense. Utah is ranked #4 in 2 point defense where Arizona will attempt nearly 80% of their shots. I always like looking at that factor because it allows you to really break down a game from the perspective of where the game will be played the majority of time. Arizona does not really have any road wins to really hang their hat on and Utah has one of the best home court advantages especially with their unique elevation factor. The same advantage has translated into the NBA for the Jazz and for the Utah football programs. Utah is 38-12-1 ATS in their last 51 home games and I expect them to take this game tonight. 

Pacers +4 4.4* NCAAB POD

I have been very conservative this year in NBA betting, but when I see an opportunity I like I jump all over it.  The Cavs are red hot winning 18 of 20 and they are off their biggest win of the season a big 110-99 at home against the leagues best team, the Golden State Warriors.  This is a great let down spot for this team while they are also playing in their 5th game in 8 days.

The Pacers are definitely having a tough time this year but they are playing their best basketball.  They have also beaten the Warriors and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 while their only 2 losses came against the Spurs and the Thunder. 

 Portland +3 4.4* POD

Very similar situation as BYU is looking ahead to their showdown against Gonzaga where Portland wants revenge on BYU for their loss earlier this season.  They definately have the offense for it and I think they will get a win at home where BYU has won 4 in a row SU and ATS are being a bit over valued here.  Portland faced BYU on the road and played their worst defense of the season along with being -10 FTA.  They are a different team at home and it will show tonight. 

Eastern Mich pk 5.5* NCAAB POD

I love Eastern Michigan in this spot right now they have a very good team that is very good on its home court (14-2 on the season).  They have been able to get it done with excellent defense at home and I think it continues tonight.  In the first match up between these teams Eastern Mich just played terribly with their 25th worse offensive night and 17th worse defensive night meanwhile Central enjoyed their 3rd best defensive game.  I don't see that happening on the road where they have struggled and their inexperience has shown as they rank 222nd in experience to Eastern Michigan's 86th ranked experience.  This defense is ranked top 75 in turnover %, effective FG%, 2 point and 3 point defense, block % and steal % and rank 58th in adjusted defense overall having faced a 102nd adjusted offensive schedule.  Now Central Mich comes into the game ranking 32nd in adjusted offense but really can't take them seriously considering their opponents rank 292nd in adjusted defense.  They are 1-3 vs. the MAC's top 4 defensive teams and their only win was at home vs. Eastern Michigan who wants revenge here tonight.  I typically think the revenge factor is a bit over rated, but this game has a lot that I like about it from the home defensive team with more experience and revenge to the fact that Central Michigan played one of their better games in the first match up while Eastern Mich played one of their worst.  I bet that switches around here tonight.

[b]Georgia Tech +6.5 3.3* play [/b]

[b]MICH ST -118 4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'll take the Spartans here with a little revenge on their mind having lost to Illinois on their own court not that long ago.  Michigan State shot 38% that day and 38.9% from the FT line and I'm betting those numbers improve dramatically here today.  Michigan State has a lot of experience on their side and although Illinois is 12-1 at home they have been far luckier than Michigan State with close wins that could have gone either way.  They are also 1-3 vs. the top 5 defenses in the Big Ten excluding Michigan State.  Michigan State still is the #1 defensive efficiency team in Big Ten play and I expect them to play like it here today.

[b]Northern Arizona -1 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I like Northern Arizona in this spot in conference play this is a veteran led team ranking 53rd in the country in experience and Eastern Washington comes in with their 20-6 record riding high, but Eastern Washington is 10th in strength of schedule in Big Sky conference play they are the #1 offensive efficiency however they just shoot too many 3's and they are facing the #2 conference defensive efficiency team.  Northern Arizona has a huge advantage here at home they are the better defensive team by far and rebounding even gets better with a 52.7% rebound rate compared to Eastern Washington's 46.1% on the road.  Eastern Washington has not shot the ball as well on the road and they have been very lucky this year in games that are supposed to be close and I'm betting against their luck here today.

BOSTON COLLEGE +6 4.4* NCAAB POD

Tennessee +13.5 3.3* NCAAB POD

Georgia Tech -150 5.5* NCAAB POD

[b]Quinnipiac +3 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]

I'll take Quinnipiac in this spot who already lost to Iona on the road this year as Iona shot 12-23 from 3.  That's Iona's bread and butter and they are not shy about hoisting up the 3, but Quinnipiac defends well at home 31.6% beyond 3 and they are #1 in the nation overall in rebounding % while Iona is #228.  Quinnipiac is also #1 in 2 point defense and block % in conference play so they should enjoy a good advantage inside the arch.  As long as they can put together an effective game plan to defend the perimeter I see them winning this game or covering the 3 point spread on Sunday.