Cappers Sports Picks

NYJ/DEN U40.5 (4.4* NFL POD) This is a dangerous game for the Jets short rest traveling after an emotional loss, basically I think their defense does show up. The Jets are the best in pass defense in this league if you take out Tom Brady and they have the best corner while the Broncos really do not have any weapons at receiver and Tim Tebow is back there throwing. This should be a lot of running tonight as it is the Jets weakness, but they can crowd the box like no other with man to man on the outside. Even last week the Broncos had just 10 points through 3+ quarters vs. the Chiefs and the Jets are much better on defense. On the other side I see the Jets going back to ground and pound it's evident Rex Ryan is frustrated with the offense and although LT is out they activiated Billal Powell. The Jets had McKnight, but now with Powell they can really concentrate on the run. I expect the Jets to struggle a bit on offense as well and this game should fly by with lots of running.

UNC +10.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) 3 of the last 4 match ups in this rivalry have been decided by a TD or less. Last year UNC fell victim of turnovers by their offense as TY Yates threw 4 interceptions. Virginia Tech to me is not the same and they are really banged up on defense and UNC has a balanced offense that Virginia Tech has not faced yet. Bryn Renner is completing 71.4 % of his passes this year which is unreal and 19 TD 11 INT on the season and he has weapons to throw to including 6-4 SR Dwight Jones who has 63 receptions and 8 TD's. UNC also features a talented freshmen running the ball in 5.44 ypc this year 3rd in the ACC in total yards. On the other side we know what Virginia Tech is going to do, run the ball and UNC has the talent to stop it as they have the better defensive line in this one. They held Clemson to 2.14 and Miami to 1.63 yards two solid running teams. I think Virginia Tech may be looking ahead here too as they win here and win against rival Virginia next week and they'll get a rematch against Clemson which they desperately want after losing 23-3. UNC scored 38 points on Clemson so that should tell you all you need to know about UNC's capabilities here. Now there are distractions, but the extra 5 days to prepare and the revenge after last year's loss to a much more talented Virginia Tech team which they led at half time 10-9. People forget Virginia Tech almost lost to Duke 14-10. Logan Thomas was impressive last week but now we'll see what he can do against a team that is much more talented in the front 7 than Georgia Tech who looked to have been in control in that game until the personal foul on defense for Georgia Tech. UNC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a dog 10.5+ and Vtech is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite while the road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Long Beach State +13.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD) Pitt has the makings of a national title contender, but they return just two starters, and may struggle early. For instance they trailed Rider by 6 in the 2nd half in their last game. Meanwhile Long Beach State returns 81% of their scoring and 4 experienced starters including Point Guard Casper Ware who was the Big West player of the year and defensive player of the year. Along with the experience they add a JUCO transfer in James Ennis at 6-8 he's a versatile player that should give the Panthers troubles he averaged 20.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5 assists a year ago. This is the same team that went 22-12 last year and lost by just 5 at North Carolina year ago. Pitt is just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite 13+.

Western Mich +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Miami Ohio is now facing a completely different style offense than they did a week ago vs. Temple who loves to pound the rock. This week they face a high flight offense that is just plain and simply clicking. Alex Carder to Jordan White is a dynamic duo going back to last year. They are only dogs because of their 1-5 road record, but honestly their 5 losses are all to quality bowl teams in Uconn, Michigan, Illinois, and the MAC's two best, Northern Illinois, Toledo and a very improved Eastern Michigan team. Miami Ohio is last in the league in running the ball and that's Western Mich's weakness that we won't ever see. They are just averaging 2.38 ypc and Western Michigan's defense has an extra day to prepare to put their secondary in the right position. I think the swagger of this defense comes back against a one dimensional offense in Miami Ohio as they look to win out to get into a bowl game. Zac Dysert is very turnover prone and his offensive line afforded him little protection as he was sacked 7 times vs. Temple. Western Mich is also just better on 3rd down as they are converting 48.28% on third down in conference play and their defense is allowing 40%. While Miami Ohio converting just 37% and allowing 39.73% at home. Vs. two Passing teams the only passing teams on the schedule in Toledo and Cinci they gave up 44% and 50% 3rd down conversions. This will be a key tonight in what should be another entertaining MAC match up.

NILL -17 -120 buy 1/2 Buy the half here, but I don't think you'll need it as Northern Illinois comes in red hot right now off 45 and 63 point performances and they face a defense ranked 118th in total defense. This is the same defense that gave up 42 points to Temple which has just one way to beat you. Northern Illinois can beat them through the air and on the ground and on special teams. Chandler Harnish is just competing at a different level right now and he should have his way at home against this team. Especially if Temple's Chester Stewart can throw 10-13 for 160 yards on the road vs. Ball State. I liked what I saw from Northern Illinois defense last week and they can get sacks at home 14 in just 4 home games and I expect that to be a big reason why they cover this large spread. Add in that they have held opponents to 31% 3rd down conversions in conference games and 40% overall while they are 64.8% at home in converting 3rd downs and there is a real reason to believe this spread is too low. How can Ball State even get off the field as they are allowing conference opponents to convert on 59.55% of their 3rd downs and they have allowed a 172 QB rating in conference play and now they face one of the conference best QB's. They can't stop the pass and they can't stop the run and they aren't even 100% healthy as they've held 6 different starters out of practice recently. Expect Northern Illinois to score into the 40's for sure and probably the 50's as their defense continues to improve on last week's performance when they held a better offensive Bowling Green to 90 yards and 9 points in the 2nd half.

Chiefs -3 (5.5* NFL POD) Last week we had the Dolphins out right against this team, but that was mainly due to the Chiefs coming off a big win on Monday Night and the Dolphins were over due to end their winless ways. The Dolphins dominated that game for 4 quarters and it was evident that the Chiefs were A. not prepared, and B. not ready physically. Chiefs coach Todd Haley even admitted that they worked on stuff a little too much following a Monday game and I think now this team will be rested and ready to go against a Broncos team that is over achieving. I love Tim Tebow, but I do believe that the option attack just will not sustain in the NFL. Now it's looked pretty good, but the tape is out on Tim Tebow. Make him throw outside the numbers and although Tebow 2-0 on the road is very impressive I see him falling to the Chiefs today. This is coming from someone who is not critical of Tebow I think he can play in this league but he has a long way to go. Force Tebow to throw outside and you win this game and the Chiefs definitely have the talent to do this. Denver is also just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 after scoring 30 + points in previous game and they are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win.

Missouri +1.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) They must be the best 4-5 team in the league. Missouri is great after allowing 40+ points per game in previous game coming back to go 21-5 ATS. This is a team that could easily be 6-3 and then we

Syracuse +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
Syracuse is a different team at the Carrier Dome and South Florida has been awful on the road this year especially in Big East play unable to get a single win. Syracuse is 4-1 at home and they beat West Virginia 49-23 in their last home game here. They went on to lose at Louisville in a let down game after a huge win and then lost at Uconn last week after turning the ball over 5 times. But back at home turnovers have not been an issue as they are forcing 3 per game at home. They

Raiders +7.5 (4.4* NFL POD)
Both teams should get conservative in this game because their inabilities to stop the run both are struggling and also both Qb

Georgia Tech +1 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love it, both teams have extra preparation and that means more to Georgia Tech who will get healthy on their offensive line and at linebacker. Both teams will try to establish the run and I believe Georgia Tech will be plenty successful as they ran for over 300 yards vs. a good Clemson team and last year vs. Virginia Tech they ran for 346 yards and are even better this year and Virginia Tech is not as good as last year and seem to be panicking moving players around on defense as many as 5 position changes. That

MIA OH +13 (4.4* NCAAF POD)+420 1* BONUS
If Miami OH can get passed this game I am confident they can lock up the MAC East. They only trail Ohio and the returning MAC Champions have pretty much everyone they had a year ago so there is no doubt they can win this game and 13 points is a lot in a game that is critical to both teams. For one Miami Ohio is a little banged up and playing their 3rd game in 11 days, However, Temple is banged up to I doubt their star RB Bernard Pierce will start and last year without them this same Miami Ohio defense held Temple to 2.5 yards per carry and 215 total yards. The defense has picked it up the last few games allowing 0 TD

Bowling Green +6
I think we are reacting too strongly to Northern Illinois 63 points a week ago to Toledo. Bowling Green matches up much better despite their 91st run defense because their pass defense is pretty good and they are even better at home allowing 52.4% completion rate and 1 TD with 5.4 yards per attempt. Chandler Harnish might have a more challenging game especially since Bowling Green has an extra few days to prepare for what is a huge game for them. Their bowl stakes are on the line and so is the MAC East the two teams ahead of them they have beat and they have Ohio next week. This is the same defense that beat temple 13-10 at home and was within 7 points to Toledo. Bowling Green

Bears +9 (4.4* NFL POD) I don't see what reason the Eagles are this big of favorites. They clearly dominated Dallas last week, but I really feel that was not an indication of things to come. They were off a bye and as we all know Andy Reid is undefeated off a bye. Speaking of byes, the Bears are coming off a bye and this is a critical game because it could be a tie breaker that separates these two teams from the playoffs later in the season. For the Bears they are playing better and it's because they have a balanced offense and Cutler has been sacked just 3 times in the last 3 games. Can he continue that success? As long as they continue to feed Matt Forte I think they will. Vick has not played that well vs. the Bears in his career he's 0-3 as a starter and has a 76 rating and has been sacked 15 times in 5 games vs. Chicago. I look for the Bears to be in this game because of their defense, and special teams and ability to run the ball vs. the Eagles suspect defense. The last 4 games in this match up have been decided 3, 4, 4, and 5 points. Eagles do not deserve this much respect in what is a match up between two close teams in overall talent.

Titans -2 (5.5* NFL POD) I love the way the Bengals have played thus far, but honestly who have they beaten? They are ranked 4th in total defense but to me they are beatable defending the pass and I think Hasselback will have a good game at home. Bengals despite winning last week were lucky to win on the road and it won't happen again this week. The QB's they have faced so far this season are Travaris Jackson, Curtis Painter, Blake Gabbert, Alex Smith, Kyle Orton, and McCoy. Add in Fitzpatrick at home where they came from behind and I'm not very impressed with their 9th ranked pass defense. Bengals have the Ravens and Steelers coming up on the schedule so I think they lose focus a little while the Titans are 3-1 at home and should have a better idea moving the ball by playing Javon Ringer at RB more. Chris Johnson really put them behind this season and the Titans defense is under rated they are ranked 11th in scoring defense. I think the Bengals will have issues moving the ball and scoring TD's.

Dolphins +4.5 (4.4* PLAY); Dolphins +190 (1* bonus) Love the Dolphins here as the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on Sunday following a Monday night game. A hell of a Monday night game it was and an emotional roller coaster to get there. Yes, the Chiefs are playing better, but the Dolphins are not nearly as bad as their record indicates and I'm going to stick with them to cover the spread as they've played in some close games. They also have been able to run the ball as of late and the Chiefs are ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Dolphins get Daniel Thomas back and Bush is coming off a 100 yard game don't be surprised to see the Dolphins steal this game out right. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team and the Chiefs are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite.

FLINT -2.5 -120 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Western Kentucky has been on fire, and I've been waiting for an opportunity to fade them. The opportunity is when they face a balanced offense, and today they not only will face a balanced offense, but a balanced defense one that's ranked 30th in the nation in stopping the run which is the strength of Western Kentucky with RB Bobby Rainey among one of the best RB's in the country. Florida International has held Rainey under 100 yards in the last two years. Western Kentucky does not have the defense to stop Florida International's balanced attack. For one UL Monroe scored 28 pts on them just last week racking up 456 yards in a 31-28 loss to Western Kentucky. They also allowed 480 yards to MIddle Tennessee which was the last balanced offense they faced. Still MTSU has zero defense ranked 105th in the nation so a 36-33 win for Western Kentucky was no surprise, but Florida International has the 39th ranked total defense. They allow just 3.51 yards per carry, 3.67 on the road and as I mentioned they've had success containing Rainey before and when you don't have to worry about the passing game from Western Kentucky you can get real agressive vs. the run. On the flip side Western Kentucky allows 5.50 yards per carry at home on defense and FIU can run the ball as well as pass. Actually they have the best player on their side of the ball with TY Hilton who will be used in the running and receiving game. He'll have Wesley Carrol throwing to him who has 1740 yards, 9 TD 3 interceptions and 62% completion rate. I like Carrol vs. the 102nd ranked pass defense. Western Kentucky wins when they get sacks 12 in their 4 wins, but FLINT has allowed only 11 sacks all year. Wky is also -6 in turnover margin at home and as we mentioned Florida just does not turn the ball over and I don't think that will change. The last few advantages are extra preparation as Florida has 4 extra days to prepare for this game that's a key conference game. With no look ahead game on the horizon you bet they were concentrated on Western Kentucky and stopping the run and their leading receiver TE Jack Doyle who was shut down vs. ULMON which has one of the nation's worst defenses. To make matters worst Western Kentucky can't make field goal's they are just 3-12 this season. Look for Florida International to make some statements in the red zone and hold the momentum throughout the game

Kent State -1 4.4* NCAAF POD
So we are backing Kent for the second week in a row. I thought their offense made major strides a week ago after a bye week where HC Darrell Hazell was able to shift the offensive line around.

UCF -1 5* NCAAF POD

I love the Knights here at home on Thursday night in what Sr. leadership is calling their

Ohio +4 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Ohio + Love Ohio here first of all Temple struggles on defense when they can not pin their ears back and go after either a one dimensional running or one dimensional passing attack. At this point Ohio can do both on offense and are just as bit as good on defense as Temple is. Ohio is a balanced offense they can pass with Tettleton and run as always. Temple has faced one team like that and it was Toledo who put up 36 points on them. Ohio has a much deeper more talented defense than Toledo and they are also home with their new black out jerseys on national television. Bernard Pierce is the best player on the field, and Temple has him, but he has not been practicing the last two weeks. Temple had a hard time containing WR Paige from Toledo and should have an even tougher challenge with Lavonn Brazil who will be playing in the NFL next year.

Northern Illinois +9 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Toledo certainly wants revenge from last year's 65-30 laugher vs. Northern Illinois, but I'm not so sure they'll get it. Northern Illinois is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 on turf and they rushed for over 400 yards vs. Toledo last year. Toledo has played well against the run, but partially because they have not faced a dual threat QB or a team that can do both pass and run. Their 4 conference opponents have either been good at one of the other and all 4 struggle to score points. Facing Northern Illinois at home will be a different game as Northern Illinois can throw with Chandler Harnish and they are one of the best teams in the country in running the ball ranked 11th. Unlike Temple who can not throw a lick, Harnish has two 300 yards passing days and Toledo can give up a bunch as they have allowed 295 yards passing per game at home and a 151 QB rating. Harnish does not turn the ball over and is completing 63% of his passes and 50.88% of third downs. When I look at this game I wonder if Toledo can get into third and manageable plays because they just are not as good on 3rd down as Northern Illinois and don't have as much balance. Also on defense Toledo has forced 19 turnovers that's been this teams strength, but they have not been as good as Northern Illinois in creating negative plays. Look for Northern Illinois to force more 3rd and longs.

Chiefs +3.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Battle 1st TD +500 (1* play) Love the Chiefs here the Chargers looked awful a week ago late in the game vs. the Jets defense and the Chiefs have the secondary to give the Chargers issues. The Chiefs have really turned it around and they are allowing 40 yards less per game at home than on the road and 26 yards less over their last 3 games. They lost 17-20 in San Diego last time out in a close game, but penalties and missed opportunities were the difference in that game. The Chiefs team really came together and Arrowhead is not an easy place to play. I think it will be rocking tonight on Halloween and the Chiefs will get a win to force a 3 way tie on top of the division.

Patriots -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare and he rarely loses going 9-2 in his coaching career. Last year he beat the jets 45-3. Patriots should be hungry vs. the Steelers and Tom Brady is 6-1 in his career vs. the Steelers with 14 TD 3 INT and 286 yards/game. Steelers #2 ranking in total defense to me is not telling us the full story as the Steelers have faced just one offense all year in the Houston Texans. Brady and the Patriots have the #1 overall offense and they should be able to runt he ball against a suspect Steelers run defense that's not as good as years past. The Steelers have played the Titans, Jaguars and Cardinals the last 3 weeks and they also have wins vs. the Colts (barely) and the Seahawks. I don't see any playoff teams in that mix. Patriots are also off an ATS loss and are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 following an ATS loss. I thought the bye came at the right time for this team as their offense was scoring less and less points. Patriots should re discover themselves against a Steelers defense that's just not as good as years past and the Patriots are 46-22-3 ATS in their last 71 road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Pats get Jered Mayo back on defense and should be able to get pressure on Big Ben as the offensive line for the Steelers is just awful and Big Ben loves holding onto the football and throwing it deep.

Mich State +4 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I love Mich State even after their big win last week. Mainly because Nebraska to me is not ready for Big Ten competition. For one Mich State beat Wisconsin and Nebraska was dominated by them and they also beat Ohio State who had Nebraska beat until Braxton Miller got hurt and they lost momentum in the 3rd quarter. Mich State forced a better QB that loves to run in Denard Robinson as Mich State won 28-14 in that game holding Denard to 9-24 passing and 18 rushes for just 42 yards. Michigan State is allowing just 2.91 yards per carry in conference play. Mich State has been dominant on 3rd down converstions allowed holding opponents to 27.5% in conference play. That will be a huge advantage Saturday when Mich State stops the running game early forcing Taylor Martinez to be a thrower which we are all well aware that's never a good thing and a reason why they can't win this game despite Mich State coming off a huge win. Nebraska is no Nebraska on defense they allow 4.66 yards per carry and they have just 9 sacks, just 1 per game in conference games. While Michigan State can stop the run and they have 19 sacks in 3 conference games. Kirk Cousins is a veteran and should have all day to throw and the running game continues to get better by the day. nebraska is just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 as a home favorite and 8-17 ATS in their last 25 after scoring 40 points in previous game as they played Minnesota last week the Big Ten's worst team. Lastly Nebraska is allowing 80% of conference opponents red zone attempts to be touchdowns and Michigan State is scoring 90% of their red zone attempts in conference play as TD's. Michigan State has also allowed half as many red zone attempts as Nebraska's defense on the year so again I'm going with the defensive team that continues to get better at their weaknesses meanwhile Nebraska continues to show they can not have a balanced offensive attack.

BYU +14 -120 BUY

Cardinals -113 (5.5* MLB POD) Everything changed in this series with that rain delay. Now Carpenter could go Friday night should be interesting and I think the Cardinals will get there with Jaime Garcia on the mound for much of the same reasons that I had him in game #2 which he pitched well enough to win 7 IP 3 H and 0 ER. It took the first time in nearly 30 playoff games that a team leading after the 7th inning lost as Motte blew the save and we lost, but... I love the Cardinals tonight Jaime Garcia should give the Rangers trouble in this cold game. Rangers are not excited for this weather and they have struggled to score more than 4 runs per game vs. LHP in their road games. Before game #2 the Rangers had a .571 OPS vs. LHP in the post season and now they have gotten worse with a .522. Josh Hamilton just is not himself and creates a huge hole in the #3 spot advantage to the Cardinals who will face Colby Lewis who as I mentioned is over rated on the road.. now Lewis had a 3.43 ERA on the road and he faced probably the easiest road starts with 6 vs. the Mariners and A's he faced just 3 top 11 OPS teams vs. RHP and he had a 7.90 ERA in those games. I think the Cardinals are primed to get him out of the game early now having already seen him as he pitched 6.2 IP 6 base runners and 1 ER in game #2. I don't think he'll have the same experience. Cardinals are 35-28 in their last 57 inter league games vs. a rh starter and 16-5 in their last 21 overall games vs. a rH starter at home. They score more than a run more at home vs. RHP than they do vs. LHP and they have a .766 OPS this post season vs. RHP.

Miami -13.5 (4* NCAAF POD)
Yep I

Uconn + 10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

Sure I

Troy +7.5 buy 1/2 -120 4.5* NCAAF POD
Troy is on revenge here returning 16 starters that remember their loss quite well to FIU at the end of last year 52-35. Part of that problem was stopping the run and turning the ball over as they were -3 in turnover margin in that game. I don

Ravens -4 & U45 6 POINT TEASER (4.4* NFL POD)
We saw a complete decrease of TD

TEX/STL O8 (11* MLB POD) Love this play as we have both aces on the mound, but this is still in Texas where runs are not at a premium. Even Carpenter's last start here was not pretty giving up 7 ER in 5 innings a few years back. Right now both teams will rebound after only 4 total runs as we won our under yesterday. The Cardinals are 5-0 this post season following a loss scoring 5, 5, 12, 7, and 16. In the first game they roughed up Wilson and it could have been worse as they left 8 guys on base and Wilson 5.2 IP 3 ER 4 hits 6 walks was not impressive and now he's back at home and the Cardinals are seeing a lefty for the 3rd day in a row. They have too many right handed hitters not to take advantage and score runs today. On the other side of things the Rangers will score runs too as Chris Carpenter is not nearly the pitcher this year on the road that he was at home. Which makes considering how Busch Stadium is, but pitching in Arlington will be a different experience. Napoli hit him hard again in game #1 and I expect the Rangers to do enough damage to make this game interesting that will be turned over to the bullpens when the game is already over the total. Rangers are over 17-5-1 in their last 23 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and they are over 17-6-3 in Wilson's last 26 home starts.

Under 10.5 4.4* play - Rangers -170 2* play Love the under here. Yesterday definitely showed that this park is a hitters park but now it's back to pitching. 10.5 runs to me is too much for a World Series game and I don't think either Manager will be messing around today and they'll go to their bullpens early which is what got them here the great bullpens. Ron Kulpa is behind the plate and the under is 7-3-1 in his last 11 there vs. Rangers, He's also Under 18-7-1 in his last 26 Sunday games. On the flip side I like for the Rangers to win this game. They got their bats going yesterday and they are very familiar with Edwin Jackson the starting line up is .326 average in 98 combined at bats. Holland has been dominant at home 20-6 in his last 26 as a home favorite and the Rangers are 45-22 in their last 71 vs. RH starters.

Bears -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Bears in London. Both teams are on the road and I'm confident in the Bears who continue to fly under the radar because of 3 losses, but as of right now they lost to the three best teams in the NFC in the Packers, Lions, and Saints. They are still the Bears and have better defense than the Bucs who rank in the the bottom of the league 25th in total defense. TB last road game had them losing 3-48 vs. the 49ers another physical defense. The loss before that on the road against the Redskins, a physical defense. I see a trend here I don't think the Bucs can match the physical intensity in this game. They are also without their starting C Jeff Faine which should be a big loss. On the Bears side I like the way J'Marcus Webb played vs. sack leader Jarred Allen. He should have the advantage vs. Clayborn I look for him to continue his progression. I also think he'll have an advantage as their will be more Bears fans in the stadium than Bucs this will be like a home game for them. Special Teams should play a critical role with both defenses dominating the game and that means Devin Hester. I believe Tampa will kick away from him, but that will lead to some mistakes and short punts. on the other side the Bears punter Podlesh is 7th in the league with 40.2 net yards per punt.

Rangers -177 (4.5*MLB POD); Over 9.5 2.2* play I tried to find reasons to take the Cards given these odds I just could not do it. Even Josh Hamilton struggling big time and not being 100% healthy could not move me in that direction. Kyle Lohse has never pitched well in Arlington over his last 4 starts he has a 9.47 ERA and the reason is he's a fly ball pitcher. Despite his good road record this year I don't think he can pitch to win here tonight. On the other side Matt Harrison should give the Cardinals troubles as they have never seen him I think the Rangers can take advantage of that and win this game.

Northwestern +4.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Yes I'm backing Northwestern again. At 2-4 and with some easy games on the docket this team still has a chance to go bowling and have a positive season. This match up could not come at the right time as Penn State's passing game is among the worst in the country. Their QB's are completing 50.9% of their passes and are just not accurate. Northwestern has really struggled to get off the field the last 3 weeks allowing opponents to convert 60% of their 3rd downs, but those opponents were very good on 3rd downs two of the 3 were over 50% on the season and now they get a break with Penn State who is 39% for the season. On the other side of things Northwestern has too much offense for Penn State to win by more than a field goal. Dan Persa is the nation's most accurate passer the same was true last year and since his return this team is converting 54% of his passes. This is the same team that had Michigan and Illinois on the ropes in the 3rd quarter. Penn State barely won at Indiana and Indiana has been god awful and they've been worse on defense ranked 105th in total defense yet Penn State still only scored 16 points. The Penn State offense also lack a go to WR after losing top target Derek Moye again this is a great break for Northwestern that needs a win in the worst way. Home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and Penn State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games while Northwestern is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points. The secret weapon that many don't know about and it's going to come through in this match up in a huge way is Kain Colter. He's a real weapon started the year at QB he can play WR and wild cat. He's a huge threat in the running game and he'll get touches at QB once again. Okay so many may think Penn State can just run all over Northwestern and keep Persa off the field, well that's not true their defense is holding opponents to 3.59 ypc over the last 3 games against some pretty good rushing offenses in Illinois and Michigan in particular. Penn State's ranked 7th in pass defense but, They have not faced a QB all season long. Please name one? Persa is arguably one of the best QB's in the league and the 7th ranked Penn State pass defense will be exposed. Don't forget Northwestern had a 21-0 lead before Penn State got a TD with 3 seconds left last year at home and that changed momentum of hte game as Penn State won 35-21 outscoring Northwestern 28-0 in the 2nd half. Don't think Northwestern doesn't remember that, and Colter is a big enough of a threat to keep Penn State from stopping Northwestern on 3rd down.

Rutgers +2 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Rutgers +8 U46 2.2* teaser
Love Rutgers tonight. Louisville has a very similar team in that their offense is not very good and their defense is very good, but Rutgers just has more weapons on offense and is building and improving each week. Their defense is also been great leading the nation in takeaways and 2nd in sacks two things that will hurt Louisville tonight as Rutgers avenges last year

Arizona -4 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
The coaching change of Mike Stoops could not have came at a better time.

Cardinals +115 (4.5* MLB POD) We are on the dog again the wrong team is favored here. It's a bad break for the Rangers who just are starting the wrong pitcher in this game. I still think the Rangers will win this series so stay tuned for a series pick after this as the Rangers should be big dogs to come back from a 2-0 deficit. Today it's Jaime Garcia who the Rangers have never even seen. Rangers saw 3 pitchers this year for the first time on the road and they struggled. Garcia is a bigger name than all these three of Zach Britton, Dan Duffy, and Brad Mills who combined pitched 18 innings and have a 2.00 ERA. Garcia is a mess on the road but at home he is a stud for whatever reason. He's got a 9-4 record at home with a 2.55 ERA and during night starts he's also been successful with a 2.95 ERA. Rangers were 3rd in the league vs. LHP in OPS during the regular season, but this post season they have a .561 OPS in 77 AB with a .195 average. Garcia is backed by a solid bullpen as we saw last night and I think the Cardinals just have a huge advantage at home forcing the Rangers to bat a pitcher. Rangers have not played well on the road in interleague play at all and I don't trust their pitcher vs. a good team. Colby Lewis is 7-17 in his last 24 road gs vs. a winning team. Lewis road stats of an ERA 3.43 and a 9-5 record for 17 starts. So it looks on paper like the logical pitching choice since he had a 5.54 ERA at home, but wait a second let's break down the 17 starts because he's had a cake walk. Only 3 top 11 OPS teams vs. RHP has he faced on the road and the Cardinals are ranked 5th in OPS and #1 in the National League in OPS vs. RHP so these stats are relevant. IN those 3 starts he has just 13.1 IP and a 7.90 ERA. His other 14 road starts have been vs. opponents at the bottom of the league in hitting vs. RHP. The average rank is 23rd in OPS vs. RHP over those 14 starts due to facing the Mariners and A's on the road 6 times. The fact of the matter is his road starts are completely misleading. Right now the Cardinals are super hot with the bats .297 with 6.28 runs per 9 in their last 10 games vs. RHP and at home they score nearly 5 runs per 9 vs. RHP so they are a completely different team than they are against LHP where last night they got extremely lucky with their 2 hits that produced 3 RBI as they were both playable balls that should have been outs. Cardinals are 36-16 in their last 52 vs. RH starters and Garcia is 17-4 in his last 21 vs. a winning team 11-1 at home vs. a winning team. Cardinals go up 2-0 when they had back to Texas.

Rangers +111 (5* MLB POD) I mentioned it in the Cardinals/Brewers series that the Cardinals are just a different team vs. LHP at home especially. Though they're ranked 6th in OPS overall that does not nearly tell the story at home where they are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a LH starter including our win with Randy Wolf. They are scoring just 3.55 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home over a run difference compared to RHP. The main reason is they are ranked 19th in walks vs. LHP on the season. For some reason they are a little more anxious and that could play in big as Wilson weakness is walking hitters. I think he gets them to chase some bad pitches early. Next we look at Chris Carpenter who has a 3.11 ERA in the post season over his 12 GS. Carpenter's history is a little deceiving. A) he has had to go against National League hitters compared to Wilson vs. AL. Also Carpenter's numbers digress a bit as far as K/9 and BB/9 as he is only striking out 5.5/9 and walking nearly 3 guys per 9. He's been lucky with a .264 BABIP and 80.5% LOB in his post season career which suggests an xFIP at 4.06 a run higher than his actual stats. Next thing I look at is who he has faced this year and he's faced only 8 opponents who are in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP, Royals, Brewers, and the Diamondbacks. In those 8 starts he had just 2 quality starts both vs. the Brewers. Overall he has a 5.01 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. The Rangers will be the best hitting team he will face faced as far as hitting vs. RHP as they are #2 in OPS with a .798. Napoli and Young are familiar with Carpenter as they are combined 5-9 with a HR and 4 RBI. Look for the Rangers to continue their hot hitting vs. RHP which has resulted in a .271 average 6.33 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Lastly I also like the Rangers bullpen that has been more impressive down the stretch and plays in a better league. Overall the numbers look similar but the Rangers acquisitions have helped them become a dominant bullpen with Feliz on the back end.

Ark State -3 @ -108 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This game comes down to Ryan Alpin in the loss against Florida International last year he threw for just 126 yards, but now it

Brewers -124 (4.5* MLB POD) The Brewers got here by winning at home they had a major league best 57 wins and they are 49-14 in their last 63 as a home favorite, 20-6 in their last 26 Sunday games overall. The pitching match up really should be the bullpens since they have pitched more than the starters and it's been the Cardinals with that edge, but the Brewers had a 1.17 ERA out of their bullpen in September and the Cardinals have pitched a lot out of their bullpen and the Brewers hitters are starting to have more of an idea at the plate. Now let's break down the starters. Marcum has struggled big time, but he's a veteran that still has 3 of 5 quality starts vs. the Cardinals this year. He's dominated Berkman, Furcal, Pujols, Freese and Theriot who are a combined 5 for 48. That's more than half the line up the team collectively have a .227 avg and a .551 OPS. Jackson meanwhile has not enjoyed the same success as the Brewers have 122 AB .295 average and a .870 OPS. His 3 starts at Milwaukee have not been good 11 ER 18.1 IP, 27 hits and 2 walks, he's given up a .301 average to opponents in his road starts this year where he has a 4.76 ERA that's nearly 2 runs higher than his ERA at home. Brewers will force the game 7 they are 37-14 in their last 51 vs. a starter with a WHIP over 1.30.

Falcons -3 @ -120 (5.5* NFL POD) Take out the poor 2nd halfs this team has played in back to back weeks and they'd have this line at a TD. I think the line is a bit off especially since Matt Ryan has lost only 3 times as a starter at home and two of them against Aaron Rodgers. The Panthers are also playing everyone close but I think this is the game they lose by a TD or more and it's also the game the Falcons get back to doing what they do best which is running the ball. Panthers can't stop anyone they are ranked 27th vs. the run and they are giving up TD's not field goals. Luckily CAm Newton has kept them in every game, but the Falcons are a different defense at home and we saw that vs. the Packers for a good portion of that game. The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a road dog 3.5 - 10pts and the Falcons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 following a SU loss. This team fights adversity well and they have some real leaders on both sides of the ball. The Falcons have started to rush the passer better and protect Matt Ryan better which are two ingredients to success. Lastly the Panthers are just 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 @ Atlanta.

Rangers -155 (4.5* MLB POD)
I think the Rangers get it done tonight. To me this pitching match up is about the same, but the Tigers have limited at bats vs. Holland and have shown a tendency to struggle vs LHP on the road. Holland takes the ball and although he struggled in the first match up I think he'll rebound tonight and Rangers who are 20-7 in their last 27 following an off day will get the win. The bullpen is going to decide this game and the edge is definitely on the Rangers side as they have an ERA under 2 while the Tigers bullpen has an ERA over 5 in this series. Look for Nelson Cruz to continue to carry the Rangers to the World Series.

Mich St -2 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Michigan again off to a fast start and now getting Top 10 considerations? I think that's a joke, but here they are now facing their in state rival on the road. Michigan is a classic team that dominates out of conference but in conference they struggle 5-23 ATS in their last 28 conf games. They are also 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. a winning team and this line suggests they'd be favorites on a neutral field which I feel is a joke considering how well Mich State's defense has played. Mich State was +160 yards last year at Michigan and they foced Robinson into 3 interceptions that's going to be the key right there. Ya Mich State lost to Notre Dame and Michigan beat them, but Michigan had no business beating Notre Dame and really they were down double digits last week to an under rated Northwestern team. Denard Robinson had his way last week through the air but again he throws way too many turnovers and too many jump balls that he's gotten lucky with especially against Notre Dame. Robinson 9 interceptions on the year are among the worst in the nation and if he tries to take off and run Mich State is solid against the run ranked #3 nationally and they are tested a bit holding a very good Notre Dame running game to only 114 yards. Greg Jones is not a Spartan LB he's off playing in the NFL, but Mich St recruits well especially at LB and their defensive line will allow them to roam free. The standard run game won't work vs. Mich St not with Jerel Worthy anchoring a very good Dline. Now Michigan has been great in the red zone 22 of their 28 RZ tries have been TD's, but Michigan State has only allowed 3 TD in the red zone all year so they can force Michigan into field goal situations meanwhile I'm not sold on Michigan's alleged improved defense. For one they have gotten lucky forcing 12 fumbles. Well Mich State takes care of the ball just 2 fumbles and only 4 total turnovers on the year so you can bet they will win the turnover battle on Saturday. Next Michigan has 11 sacks, but Mich State has allowed just 5 on the year. Kirk Cousins is a very composed QB and experienced vs. Michigan. Dan Persa just threw for 336 yards and Nwestern running game was able elude tackles and get into the end zone. Mich State with an extra week to prepare should be able to get the running game going last year Edwin Baker had 22 carries and 147 yards and he's still there last I checked so is Le'Veon Bell who had 7 carries and 78 yards. Michigan's run defense stats look good but they haven't faced any teams that can run beside San Diego State and Notre Dame which had Wood and Hillman both over 100 yards and 6 yards per carry combined.

Hawaii -5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) This line has moved a little weird and normally I'd have to buy into a home dog in a national spot light playing a team traveling far for the game, but Hawaii comes into this game coming off a break. They have had extra time to prepare and with New Mexico State on deck there is no doubt in my mind they were not looking ahead at their schedule. The line is just 5 points because the last few match ups here have been decided by a TD, but Hawaii has not had a week off to plan. Also San Jose has looked good vs. BYU, UCLA, and Nevada, but all three of those teams don't throw the ball like Hawaii. Last time San Jose played a passing team they lost 57-3. The main issue here is San Jose does not get pressure they have just 3 sacks on the season. Hawaii was able to get a little more healthy on the offensive line that should allow Bryant Moniz time to throw. SJSU is -2 in turnover margin while Hawaii is +1 as Moniz takes care of the ball just 1 interception. Also SJSU is not scoring in the red zone, they have 18 trips with just 7 TD's and 6 FG's. Hawaii has been better on defense in years past and are allowing opponents to convert 37% of the time on 3rd downs which is about where the inconsistent SJSU is converting 38% of their opportunities. That's the difference in the game and the reason I like Hawaii here. Hawaii is 50% on 3rd down for the year and SJSU has allowed opponents to convert on 3rd downs 54% in their last 2 games. SJSU does not have the depth at RB to hold onto the ball nor do they have a consistent offense to keep up with Hawaii who is scoring 37.2 ppg while SJSU is allowing 31. Hawaii also has 19 sacks and are ranked 27th in total defense. That should be enough to give San Jose some issues especially with extra prep.

Cardinals -121 (4.5* MLB POD)
As I mentioned in our Brewers pick last night. The Cardinals are a completely different team at home v.s RHP than LHP and we saw it as Randy Wolf dominated. Tonight they get to face a righty in Zack Greinke who also is pitching much poorly on the road than at home as he has a 4.70 ERA with a losing record on the road that's 1.57 higher than his home ERA. Cardinals have plenty of success too including Holliday 5-12 2HR, Berkman 3-9 HR, PUjols 5-18, Jay 3-9 etc. Jaime Garcia is also dominant at home with a 2.63 ERA this year and 4.61 on the road. Luckily he pitches at home in game #5. He's struggled vs. the Brewers in the past but those are all on the road. He's had better success against the big hitters than Greinke has with the Cardinals, as he has held Braun and Fielder to 11-43 with just 1 HR. In his 4 home starts vs. the Brewers he's gone 28 innings allowed just 2 ER good for a 0.64 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Brewers just .235 average and 3.91 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this year and they are 1-5 in their last 6 as a dog while the Cardinals are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. a RH starter 13-3 at home and 10-1 in Garcia's last 11 home starts vs. a winning team.

San Diego St +7.5 -115 buy 1/2 (4.5* NCAAF POD) SDST +250 1* BONUS Both teams on a short week and that normally means trouble for a team going up against the triple option, but the Aztecs are in Air Force division they are used to the triple option and more importantly they won at Army facing the triple option already this season which was a nice warm up to this game. First of all Air Force is really banged up with the possibility of 5 starters on defense missing this game they are already last in the nation in run defense and they gave up 9.2 yards per carry to Notre Dame and Ronnie Hillman ran for 191 yards vs. them last year. I think both teams come out and run the ball this will shorten the clock and that means a closer game. To me this game also comes down to turnovers and the Aztecs have 10 forced fumbles while the Falcons have -4 turnover margin they have the inability to force turnovers 10 less than the Aztecs and they continue to have problems fumbling the ball. They may run all over San Diego State and allow over 50% 3rd down conversions, but we have seen them do that before and still stay within a TD. I don't think Air Force is the team to blow any team out the way they hold onto the ball. They'd have to be nearly perfect in the red zone and they just haven't been this year. Their red Zone offense is 13 for 18 and I expect them to get stopped for FG like they did when they played TCU as they had 4 FG and 1 TD. On the other side San Diego State has a balanced attack and they have faced a much stronger schedule this year playing vs. Michigan in non conference while Air Force has mixed it up with Tenn St and South Dakota where they gave up nearly 400 yards to each team and over 4 yards per carry. Bottom line the under dog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in the match up and Air Force is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

Tigers -155 (4.5* MLB POD) Tigers are good and should have won that game if Miguel Cabrera was not so fat. I never have liked the idea of putting a closer in a non closer role. The game is mental and Valverde could not handle that situation. Looking at his numbers during the season he has an ERA over 5 when he's in a non closer role. He got through the 1st inning but putting him out for the 2nd was a mistake and cost the Tigers the game. Fortunately this is a resillient bunch and Jim Leyland is Mr. Cool and they are 35-16 in their last 51 following a loss and nowt hey have their ace on the mound who has a 1.78 ERA and a 8-1 record during day starts. IN fact Verlander has never been comfortable this post season he's had two rain outs which impacted his one start and I think finnally getting into a regular rhythm and rest will prove to be a huge factor today. CJ Wilson's road records indicate he's an elite pitcher on the road with a 2.31 ERA. A closer look and he has 6 road starts that's 33% of his road starts vs. the Mariners (ranked 30th in OPS vs. LHP) and the A's (ranked 28th). Taking his numbers against the top 10 teams he's just a slightly above average pitcher on the road. Actually the Rangers are just 6-13 in their last 19 road games vs. a winning team with Wilson on the mound. Tigers facing another lefty back to back is an advantage when you can see the same angles. They are 51-25 in their last 76 home games vs. a LH starter.

Tigers +113 (4.5* MLB POD) I think we have some great value here today with the Tigers. In our max winner yesterday we mentioned the Rangers struggles to hit on the road vs. what they do at home and now they play a day game where they just did not perform as well as they did during night games. In fact they were just 4 games over .500 during day games while the Tigers were 15. Tigers send Rick Porcello who has not been that great at home this year, but again he's had success vs. the big hitters from Texas, Beltre, Cruz, and Hamilton are a combined 2-15. As a team they have less at bats vs. Porcello than what the Tigers have vs. Harrison (who we will get to in a minute) and I'm much more confident in a home team that has a bullpen advantage at home. Much like Max Scherzer, Porcello's strength is HR's allowed and he gives up less than 1 per 9 innings. He's given up just 1 HR to the Rangers in 51 AB so I think that will benefit him on Wednesday. More importantly in this match up is Matt Harrison who has struggled big time in his career vs. the Tigers as he's 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA in 5 career starts, 0-3 at Comerica with a 7.03 ERA. That's an extremely high ERA for a pitcher on the road in a pitchers park like Comerica. Lewis had similar struggles here and I think the same is said for Harrisson who the Tigers have really hit hard. Cabrera, Avilla, Inge, Jackson, Raburn are a combined 22 for 48 with 4 HR. I look for Inge to definitely get the start since he's been so successful vs. Harrison and hits lefties better. The Tigers actually hit lefties better at home than they do righties which is important to note as they score 0.53 more runs vs. LHP at home than against RHP. They are already +1.36 runs per 9 at home compared with the Rangers on the road so I see it as a pretty good edge. Lastly Harrisson has a 2.99 ERA on the road and that's what's pushing this line this way as most bettors are looking at Porcello's struggles at home and Harrisson's success on the road, but a closer look and he has just 4 Top 10 opponents ranked in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP of his 15 road starts and the other 11 are a combined average rank of 23. So he's had an easy road here while Porcello has 14 home starts, smaller sample size and he's faced 5 Top 10 teams at home and his other 9 starts are an average 21st. He's had some really bad starts here that have really inflated his record while Harrisson struggled vs. the top 10 teams including the Tigers 6 IP 4 ER last time here. Tigers are 48-20 in their last 68 home vs. a winning team, and 51-24 in their last 75 home games vs. LH starter. They are also 17-4 at home vs. the Rangers

Tigers -132 (5.5* MLB POD) Colby Lewis has very good stats on the road this year so you'd wonder why I have such a large play on this game. Well looking at his game log I realized something and also remembered what division he pitches in. For one he pitches in the NL West the bulk of his road starts are facing the Angels, A's, and Mariners who have a league ranking in OPS vs. RHP ranked 19th, 24th, and 29th. his 3.43 ERA on the road is not nearly as good as it appears. He had just 2 road starts vs. an opponent over 17 road starts this year inside the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP. Those three were the Red Sox, and Tigers, and he combines for 7.1 IP and 8 ER so it's clear to me if he's facing a winning team on the road he struggles and that's exactly the truth as the Rangers are just 7-16 in his last 23 road starts vs. a winning team. He had a very easy road to this point and he has not pitched well vs. the Tigers on the road. In his last two starts in Texas he has just 11 IP, 2.18 WHIP and a 6.55 ERA. In his 5 career starts vs. the Tigers he's got a 7.76 ERA in 2 years. The main 8 guys who will be in the line up on Tuesday Jackson/Young/Santiago/Raburn/Peralta/Cabrera/Martinez/Avilla are a combined 31-82 with a .378 average vs. Lewis. Collectively the Tigers have 150 AB a .340 average and .901 OPS vs. Lewis and the Tigers are a very good home hitting team especially vs. RHP. They've had to face lefties in both games in this series facing a lefty makes it that much harder to pitch around Cabrera as Victor Martinez is much better vs. RHP .337 average on the year he's 5-11 vs. Lewis and was the best regular season hitter with RISP a stat they have struggled in the last couple games leaving 22 hitters on base. one would think the Rangers could just out score the Tigers again right? Well the Rangers are a completely different team on the road. They have the #1 OPS at home with a .860 but on the road just .740 which is still pretty good, but makes them far less dangerous. Add in the fact that they'll have to face Doug Fister and I'm confident the Tigers get the win. Fister had a 2.99 ERA at home this year and in his lone start vs. Texas with the Tigers at home he had 7 IP 8 hits and 2 ER. 3 of his 6 career starts have been dominant starts. Fister is a very bad match up for the Rangers who love to hit the long ball he's given up just .46 HR/9 ranked 4th in the league and he's only given up 1 HR in his home starts in Detroit. Fister also has 8 straight starts of 1 ER or less and the Rangers are a combined .268 wit a .679 OPS not nearly the success that the Tigers have against Lewis. Tigers will be happy to face the righty they are 35-16in their last 51 vs. RH starter and 40-15 in their last 55 as favorites. Last few points here for your and my confidence.. Lewis has gotten by and has been a bit lucky in my opinion because he's faced terrible hitting teams on the road for the majority. His BABIP is .262 well below the league average and it's considered lucky. He faces the Tigers who have a .318 BABIP and since Lewis is not a strike out pitcher this could be a bad mix for Lewis against a team that already has success. The Rangers bullpen has been great but they pitched 8 1/3 innings tonight when their starter could not get past the 3rd inning this is a huge advantage for the Tigers moving forward because it's been a strength that can now turn into a weakness for the Rangers.

Lions -6.6 (4.4* NFL POD) This seems like a lot of points for an unproven Lions team. However, I'm buying in they've had 3 of their 4 games on the road and they've shown they can come back from any defecit, and they have made timely turnovers and put major pressure on QB's. IF they can stop the run early this game is going to be a disaster for Jay Cutler. Lions also get Nick Fairley to make his debut on an already deep defensive line that should help improve the run defense as well as get more pressure on Cutler which won't turn into anything positive. It's been a long time since Monday night game and the Lions are pointing to this game to show they are for real. I believe it's the reason they came out flat against the Cowboys before recovering and showing their true talent in the 2nd half. I don't care that they can't run the ball the Bears on the road are a different team than they are at home especially defensively as they'll be on a fast carpet rather than the torn up field of Chicago. Bears are 31st in total defense and they've been equally as bad vs. the run and pass. Look for the Lions not to mess around early in this game and for them to get up early. They are 7th in points allowed and the Bears have been ineffective in the red zone. Lions also have double revenge going here they lost twice including 24-20 at home but that was with Drew Stanton at QB and Cutler throwing 21-26 for a TD and 0 interceptions. I think Cutler will have a few mistakes tonight that will help cover our TD spread on Monday night leading to the Lions 5-0 start!

Cardinals +128 (4* MLB POD) We go with the resilient Cardinals to tie this heated rivalry game up. I just think the Cardinals match up very well with the Brewers and this is going to be a back and forth series. I'll go with who I think is the better pitcher for this match up on Monday and that would be Edwin Jackson who.. Is 4-0 with a 2.91 ERA during night games since coming to the Cardinals and he has been solid on the road while Marcum has not been good at home which we will get to in a minute. Jackson had one terrible start @ Milwaukee but at the end of August he bounced back at Milwakuee to throw a dominant start actually he had two starts in August where he gave his team a chance to win giving up 3 ER in 13 IP. Now to the reason why I like him in this match up. Well first of all Brewers win by the long ball especially at home, and they are 18th in average vs. RHP on the year yet they are #2 in the national league in HR vs. RHP. Edwin Jackson just does not give up many HR and he's held Braun/Fielder to 5-25 with 0 HR in his career. Jackson only 0.72 HR/9 this year which is good for Top 25 in baseball. Jackson also is the hotter pitcher down the stretch posting a QS in 9 of his last 10 starts going 8-2 while Marcum.. Has been awful in his last 5 starts he's given up 25 ER over 29 innings pitched while giving up 39 hits and 8 walks. He's held the good hitters on the Cardinals in check, but again he's pitching with little confidence eon a mound he has little confidence on as he posted a 4.81 ERA at home and even looking further into the numbers he's actually pitched better during day games where Jackson has pitched better at night games. Cardinals have the advantage there as well vs. RHP they have a .765 OPS Brewers .755, and at night the Cardinals are also better hitters .796 OPS and Milwaukee .751. Basically in this match up the Brewers have two advantages home field and the bullpen. I still think the Cardinals bullpen is solid, and though the Brewers have been great at home they have not been great at home when Marcum pitches and Marcum has shown he does not pitch well vs. good teams just 2-8 in his last 10 vs. a winning team while the Cardinals are 11-4 in their last 15 as a road dog and 21-7 in their last 28 vs. a RH starter.

Bengals -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Yes I'm backing the Bengals on our play of the day once again. They've shown they can put points up on the road and as bad as Andy Dalton was last week int he 1st half he's a cool customer coming back in the 2nd half with 11/16 in leading his team back vs. the Bills. The Bengals have the #1 total defense and that defense is for real they are 7th in run defense and they'll have to keep Maurice Jones Drew in check in force the rookie Blaine Gabbert to beat them. Gabbert has not impressed me and he goes up against rookie Dalton who just has more weapons in the passing game with Greshem and Green. That was what we saw in the 2nd half and I think it continues on Sunday here. The 3rd option of Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell have potential too. Jaguars just do not have enough offense in this game and the Bengals should win this game as the Jaguars come off a game where they gave up 500+ yards to the Saints. Look for the Bengals to get their first interception today and for the running game to continue it's success as well.

Tigers +100 (4.5* MLB POD) I love the Tigers here as they got their ace on the mound who is 14-2 on the road this year with a 2.48 ERA and in 3 career starts in Texas he has26K's to 4 walks and a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. The Rangers starting line up has just a .224 average vs. him in 138 AB. He's dominated this team and it's no coincidence that the Tigers are 6-1 in his 7 starts vs. the Rangers. They are also 50-22 in his last 72 overall starts and 21-6 in their last 27 vs. a winning team while the Rangers go with their ace CJ Wilson. I don't have as much confidence in Wilson despite having good numbers with the starting line up vs. the Tigers that was mostly in relief. His one start he allowed 4 ER in 6.2 IP while allowing 10 batters to reach base. Wilson also mentioned he struggled in his first start vs. Tampa because he had extra time off and now he's 2-6 in his last 8 with 7 or more days of rest which he'll be on here today. I expect him to struggle against a Tigers line up that's hitting .287 with 6.65 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 games and they are 5th overall with a .783 OPS vs. LHP and have a .281 average on the season. Many think the Rangers have the bullpen advantage but the Tigers have a 3.90 ERA out of bullpen on the road while the Tigers post a 4.57 at home partially due to it being a hitters park, but the Tigers have Valverde closing games and he has not blown a save all year long.

Ohio State +11.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); OSU +400 (1.5* PLAY) I remember this story isn't it so similar. A team with a solid defense loses at home and then goes on the road as a double digit favorite against a one dimensional offense? That was Texas losing to Oklahoma on their way to play Nebraska as a +10 dog. The result was a winner for us and an outright Texas victory 20-13, then Texas folded. I think Ohio State can have a similar result on Saturday night. First thing first Nebraska's offense is absolutely one dimensional and Ohio State has seen very similar type of approaches from Michigan and at least Denard Robinson is a threat to throw the ball. Taylor Martinez is absolutely not a threat throwing 5 interceptions and barely completing 50% of his passes. The public is pounding Nebraska after their terrible offensive performance vs. Michigan STate, but Mich State is quietly leading the nation in total defense and Ohio State now looks to start a new QB which could have a big impact on this game. It's also not like Nebraska's defense is the same they can be beat in the secondary with 3 new starters and that should open things up a bit for the running game of Ohio State, but it will be the defense that carries this team as they are 23rd vs. the run 13th in total offense and 11th in points allowed. I don't see what Nebraska has done to warrant being a double digit favorite as they lost at Wisconsin 17-48. I know Ohio State's offense has been awful, but they get an NFL caliber tackle back this week in Mike Adams and that should help. Despite all the issues Ohio State is still +4 turnover margin and they forced a very good experienced QB in Kirk Cousins into 3 turnovers. Ohio State has allowed just 10 possessions in the red zone this year that will mean that Nebraska gets there only twice in this game yet they are double digit favorites? I don't see it in a game they will be most likely negative in turnover margin and the clock should be ticking with both teams running the ball a lot. Ohio Sate is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team, 20-7-1 ATS following a SU loss, 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 conference games. Nebraska got a nice welcome to the Big Ten last week vs. Wisconsin. Nebraska is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite 10.5+ and is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of 10.5+ they don't want to play aggressively and score a ton of points when they get up they sit on that clock and that provides us nice value for a cover.

Brewers -150 (4.5* MLB POD) Brewers were one of the best home teams and this year is game is no different. I expect them to bounce back from losing two straight in great fashion behind Yovani Gallardo who in 6 career starts vs. the Dbacks has a 1.18 ERA including a 1.28 ERA in 3 starts this year. Milwaukee is 37-14 in their last 51 games vs. RH starter and they are 49-18 in their last 67 home games. Kennedy's two starts at Milwaukee he's given up 8 ER 17 base runners in 12.2 IP in two road starts this year. Expect the Brewers in front of a crazy crowd to get the W on Friday.

Oregon -23.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
I like Oregon here despite both teams having extra rest and time to prepare for each other.

Yankees -157 (5.5* MLB POD) Well the Yankees really put themselves in a great spot. I put money down before Game #3 on the Tigers to win the series and I felt good with AJ on the mound yesterday, but then the Curtis Granderson catch changed the entire out come of this series. Yankees have CC available in the bullpen and a fresh Mariano to get 6 outs and I don't think there is a way for the Yankees to lose this game with Ivan Nova on the mound. Nova has been great 8-2 at home and 14-4 with a 3.61 ERA during night starts. He does not seem phased by this kind of spot light and reminds me a lot of Orlando Hernandez. Fister is on the other side and very quietly has been great since coming over from Seattle, but there is a catch. He's struggled vs. the Yankees, Teixera is 3-9 Jeter 4-10, Cano 2-6, Granderson 1-3 with a HR and even Alex Rodriguez showed signs last game of turning it around. collectively the Yankees have 70 AB much more experience than the Tigers have vs. Nova with just 24 AB. Gardner 5-13 and Cano has 8 RBI we mentioned Jeter's success in the series as well. While the Tigers seem to be falling as Austin Jackson is 1-10 in the lead off Avila is 0-12 and Betemit is 0-8 and Miguel Cabrera 0-5 in the last 2 games. A closer look at Fister and of his 17 road starts he's really only had 4 starts against quality opponents. Pitching in the West and the Central really benefits a pitcher while Nova has had a much more challenging road to get to where he is. IN those 4 starts on the road at Boston, Detroit, Toronto and New York he has struggled with the exception of an early start in Boston. He did not pitch well in game #1 in relief allowing 9 base runners in 4.2 IP and giving up 6 ER. At home the Yankees are scoring 1.58 more runs per 9 vs. RHP than the Tigers are vs. RHP and their bullpen is 1 run better at home than the Tigers on the road. Yankees have the strength in the bullpen and the Tigers are 10-21 in their last 31 following an off day. Yankees are also 38-16 in their last 54 vs. the Tigers at home.

Dbacks -105 (4* MLB POD); Over 8.5 2* play On paper it looks like a pretty even match up pitching wise, but a futher look in at these two south paws who both have career post season ERA's over 5.00 is that the line up that faces Wolf has more experience and more success than the Brewers do against Joe Saunders. Add in that the Dbacks are home and I'm confident they even up this series tonight. Dbacks projected line up is 29-87 with 5 HR that's .333 average while the line up for MIlwaukee has a .260 average vs. Saunders led by Braun who has 2 HR. Fielder is 0-5. Also people seem to forget just how bad the Brewers were on the road with a .233 average and 3.83 runs per 9 vs. LHP and the Dbacks are +1.20 runs overall 1.05 vs. LHP. Brewers are 11-23 in their last 34 as a road dog while the Dbacks are 48-22 in their last 70 as a home favorite

PHI/STL U7 (4.5* MLB POD); Cardinals +129 (2.5* play) This game absolutely screams pitching for one I like the under as the first half of the game is going to be played in the shadows with the hitters having a very difficult time picking up pitches. Next you look at these two pitchers and both have been great. Jaime Garcia was great down the stretch 2.64 ERA in SEptember and his 15 starts at home he has a 2.55 ERA where he was just a different more confident pitcher. He has the success against the Phillies he's 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA holding them to a .178 average in those games. Victorino, Utley, Rollins, Pence, Polanco, Howard combined are just 10-64. Phillies are just a different team vs. LHP they were 21st w/ .701 OPS vs. LHP this year while the Cardinals were ranked 6th with a .768 OPS so that's one reason why I like the Cardinals in this game though I think it will be low scoring because.. Cole Hamels has been the man for this rotation especially on the road where half of his wins come. He won't have to face Matt Holliday and that has to help the under as he can work around Lance Berkman who is 7-21 vs. him. Though Hamels had a 2.93 ERA on the road this year he gave up 9 HR in September and he had only 3 the other months which is a little red flag, but he has not given up HR to this Cardinals team in his career and Cardinals at home vs LHP are not as good as they are on the road .254 3.74 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Phillies on road .243 3.98 runs per vs. LHP. Jerry Layne is behind the plate and that means strikes. Layne is under 10-3 in his last 13 behind home plate with the Phillies U16-13 in games this year and the CArdinals are 6-0 with Layne behind home plate in his last 3 games. The two starters are under 3-0 in their 3 starts with Layne behind home plate. Phillies are under 40-17-4 in Hamels last 61 starts.

Tigers -122 (4.5* MLB POD) We had the Tigers yesterday and now that this pitching match up shifts to Detroit it jumped a total of 40 points on the line and I"m backing the Tigers because of CC's struggles @ Detroit where he has 3 starts the last 3 years and he's given up 14 ER in 21 IP for a 6.00 ERA. Tigers at home hit lefties hard .280 with 5.73 runs per 9 this year and they are 50-24 in their last 74 vs. a LH starter. Cabrera will be licking his chops as he's 9-16 vs. Sabathia with 2 HR that should open things up for others in the line up who will see pitches so Sabathia can avoid Cabrera. Verlander on the other hand has an easier task in my opinion especially now that they are at home. Arod is a huge liability in that line up and they are going to stick with him he's 0-8 in the series and 4-18 vs. Verlander. Yankees have hit just .204 vs. RHP over their last 10 games and have a 4.84 bullpen ERA. We saw their offense struggles vs. a righty yesterday and it continues against the AL Cy Young winner who is 22-6 in his last 28 home games vs. a winning team.

Colts +10.5 (4* NFL POD) Not a huge play for us tonight, but it's the only one for me. Who are the Bucs to be laying double digit points anyway? They do not out score opponents the offense is ranked 22nd in the league and the defense is 24th. I think Curtis Painter will have a good enough night to keep his team in the game. After all this was the guy the team wanted and he's clearly more capable of running the offense than Kerry Collins. Josh Freeman is good, but he is very much like Ben Roethlisberger he waits for plays to develop and that will provide pass protection which is something they may not be able to do against Mathis and Freeney. I expect just an ugly game Freeman is the hot pick based on what they did last year and I think this line is just way too much. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games and they barely got by the Vikings, and struggled with a FAlcons team that has been terrible on the road to start the year. Colts are still believing they can make the playoffs especially since Peyton has yet to be ruled out for the year. Not saying he comes back, but this team is far from throwing in the towel which is what this line is suggesting.

Brewers -160 (5* MLB POD) Love the Brewers they have every advantage in this match up. Greinke is a perfect 15-0 at home this year and they are 20-3 in his last 23 as a favorite and 21-6 in his last 27 gs overall. Home team is 41-17 in umpire Alfonso Marques last 58 Sunday's behind the plate and the Dbacks are 1-7 in their last 8 games with him back there. Milwaukee 41 AB vs. Hudson and they have a .317 average and .919 OPS. Dbacks are 13-40 in their last 53 as a road dog +151-+200. Hudson struggled downt he stretch his last 2 starts vs. the Dodgers and Pirates. He faces a Brewers team that hit 4 HR off him in two starts both in MIlwaukee where this game is too. Brewers also have a better bullpen if it gets to that so I expect them to win game 2 as well.

Bengals +3.5 buy 1/2 -120 (5.5* NFL POD) Wow, shocker right I'm not backing the Bills like the rest of the world. Guess what the Bengals defense is pretty tough, and I think the difference here is their ability to be strong up front on defense. Bengals defensive line goes about 8 deep and they are good. This is the first defense the Bills will play as they faced 23rd, 28th, and 32nd ranked total defense in the first three weeks. Bengals lost to the Bills a year ago and I think they will be playing on revenge with a shot to win in the end. Bengals are allowing just 18ppg and 88 rush yards for a total of 276.3 yards total. They'll hold the Bills to field goals instead of TD's and I expect Andy Dalton to come back with a big performance today to keep his team in the game all day long. Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog where they always play solid defense and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as a dog of .5-3points. I can't really call the Bills lucky, but in reality that's what they've been the ball has bounced their way I don't expect that to take them to 4-0 today.

Rays +112 (4.5* MLB POD) Rays dominated game 1 and we had the under which we would have won if it werent for an error in the 8th, but we move on to Saturday and we are backing this hot team. The Rays just seem to be a better team and they have a pitching advantage. Remember that Texas plays in a hitters park so their offense to me is not as good as it looks on paper. Rays also have to go up against the Red Sox and Yankees in fact Shields who takes the mound has faced the 3 best offenses in the AL in Boston, New York and Texas two times a piece in his last 6 starts and he's come out with a 2.23 ERA. Vs. the Rays he has gone 17 innings given up 8 hits and 1 ER. Overall the Rangers just don't hit him the starting line up combined are 24-129 for a .186 average. Derek Holland on the other hand takes the mound vs. the Rays. That's the 2nd start in a row vs. a lefty and the Rays line up just hits lefties better they are in the top 10 in OPS vs. LHP with a .749 this season. In their last 10 games they are hitting .278 with 6.81 runs per 9 and 2.90 bullpen ERA

Colorado -2.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Washington State under their head man Wulff is 1-17 on the road. Colorado is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss. Colorado has played some quality opponents in Hawaii, Cal and Ohio State while Wash State did not play anyone early then they faced their first team with a pulse in San Diego State and got beat giving up over 500 yards and they were sacked 4 times. San Diego State gave up a few weaknesses that Colorado can take advantage of at home in the high altitude. 1st thing is the running game as San Diego State RB Hillman ran for 191 yards. Rodney Stewart from Colorado has the skill to spark this offense. Actually this offense has clicked behind Stewart and QB Tyler Hansen the Sr. is quietly having a quality start to the season with 1150 yards 9 TD and 1 INT vs. some quality opponents. Washington State can not get pressure and they are weak up front which should favor Colorado which will have a balanced attack in this one. Look out for one of the best receivers in the Pac 12 in Paul Richardson for Colorado who has 22 receptions 398 yards. VS. California he had 11 for 284 and has been quiet the last two weeks. I expect him to get back to that success this week. Next advantage is Washington state's weakness up front on their offensive line and it really showed against San Diego State who sacked them 6 times. Colorado is strong up front they are 10th in the nation in sacks and they have gotten 3 or more in each game. This will be an advantage late in the 2nd half I think Colorado can end some late drives. Washington St had high hopes this year behind Jeff Tuel but he got hurt in the first game and although his back up is capable he's not nearly as good and Colorado's secondary is the weakness although it's been a strength so far givin up just 283.5 yards per game 26th nationally. I think that continues the line is low because Wash St is averaging 439.67 yards per game, but Colorado is the best defense they have faced all year by a mile and it's on the road in a conference game.

Utah State +8 -115 (4.5* NCAAF POD)I love Utah State as this is a great exposure game for their team and players in what their head coach has said he

U52 4.5* play, pit+8.5/U58 2.2* teaser bonus!
This game I lean towards Pittsburgh and being the home team as an under dog coming off two losses, but I

Rangers -149 (5.5* MLB POD) Rangers have their full line up in and the Angels have 5 hitters that have never faced Matt Harrisson in and the 4 hitters that have faced Harrisson are a combined 6-43 so I expect the Rangers who would much rather win clinch home field in the first round and face the Red Sox or Rays for sure. If they lose and the Tigers win then they will have to face the Yankees at Yankee Stadium which is something no team wishes upon themselves. This team has been hitting too .333 average over their last 5 with 7.31 runs per 9 while the Angels are hitting .195 over their last 5. Texas bullpen 2.48 ERA over their last 10 compared to the Angels 4.76. Angels were alive a week ago but now obviously not into it and with all the young players going up against a Rangers team that is motivated to secure the home field advantage in the first round as they are 53-29 at home and they are 13-2 run right now scoring 6.3 runs per game.

Orioles +150 (4* MLB POD) Red Sox are pressing right now and Buck Schowalter has this team motivated to finish strong as he did a year ago. Orioles are hitting 6 runs per 9 in their last 10 vs. LHP which they face tonight in long time ex Oriole Eric Bedard. 3-4,5,6 have a combined 16-42 .381 average and 2HR vs. Bedard and I think this is their world series they are getting pride in knocking a division rival out of the playoffs. On the other side Zach Britton has been solid at home with a 2.71 ERA at home and he is coming off a start with just 78 pitches. Britton has had good starts of late against good teams including the Angels and Yankees at home going 14 IP combined and giving up just 1 ER so I am sure he's excited to continue his quality pitching at home here tonight. Boston hitting just .237 with 0.87 runs per 9 vs. LHP. While the Orioles are hitting .370 and 7.11 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP.

Cowboys -3 (4.4* NFL POD) I had the Redskins in both of their first two games, but now they go on the road and I know the injuries have been a big deal and a reason why the Cowboys are -3 favorites here instead of more, but I think the injuries are over rated at this point. Romo's injury got better not worse from how they were where he led his team on the road against the 49ers and he looked good. Romo usually turns up with a great game when people expect him to struggle. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are still out there even though Austin is now out. It appears Bryant will play and if so I think this offense won't miss Austin a bit. Jason Witten had 10 receptions and a 140 yards in the home win with Jon Kitna at QB. Redskins defense just is not the same on the road as it is at home and I think they'll struggle stopping the Cowboys and on the other side I think we can expect a nightmare performance from Grossman. Though he's looked great first few games he'll have to win this game because the Cowboys are #2 in stopping the run. Cowboy get Terrence Newman back to help their secondary and I think that will help them concentrate on TE Fred Davis.

Phillies -139 (4.5* MLB POD) Going with the Phillies here today. They ended their streak of losses yesterday and ironically it was because their full line up was on the field. Well today they keep that momentum with one of their aces on the mound and their full best line up on the field. Braves have really struggled and they are just 1 game up on the Cardinals feeling the pressure. I expect the Phillies to win this game as they'd much rather face the Cardinals any how, but they also want to get a good vibe going into the playoffs. Cliff Lee goes for the Phillies and as we know the Braves struggle vs. LHP as they are 29th with a .644 OPS this year vs. LHP. IN his last 3 starts vs. the Braves he has 24 IP with a 1.50 ERA and a .83 WHIP with 31K's. The braves are scoring just 1.88 runs per 9 over their last 10. I think Lee wants to feel good about an outing going into the post season. With that said he's also 20-4 in his last 24 vs. a winning team and the Phillies are 22-8 in their last 30 as a road favorite. Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 game 1 of a series and 0-6 in their last 6 as a dog. Delgado has pitched well for the Braves, but he has struggled with control which does not bode will vs. the Phillies he's got 10 walks in his last 20 IP and he's faced some weak hitting teams so I don't think he can turn a QS on this kind of pressure.

Dolphins +3 -125 buy 1/2 (5.5* MAX POD) Love the Dolphins and I'd take them straight up, but when your book has them at +2.5 there is no reason not to be smart and buy the half point in my opinion. First of all this Dolphins team is much better than they have played. Starting the season playing the AFC's two best offenses in the Texans and the Patriots was never going to produce good results especially after a shortened off season. Today the Dolphins begin their season. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a dog while the Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. This will be a big game for Dolphins rookie Daniel Thomas. Right now the Browns can be run on they have the 24th run defense and they faced Benson and Addai from the Bengals and Colts. Those guys are good, but they are old news and I loved what I saw from Thomas a week ago 18 carries for 107 yards. I really believe he can be the next big thing in the league. Sprinkle in Reggie Bush and I think the Dolphins should have no trouble moving the ball. Dolphins struggled at home vs. the Browns a year ago in a 13-10 defeat, but Henne threw 3 interceptions and that number will clearly go down with a balanced attack and Brandon Marshall who did not play in that game. Also the Dolphins held Hillis in check in that game 18-57 yards 3.1 ypc. Hillis really has not looked good this year and I think we will continue to see more of Hardesty, but not today. Hillis will struggle on the year he has 3.4 ypc vs. the Colts/Bengals. Dolphins run defense is better and their overall defense which is suspect when you look at the numbers is inflated because they faced the Texans and Patriots. Expect the Dolphins to really come out and make a point in this game. Their offense has looked good and their defense won't have a problem with the Browns offense led by McCoy who dinks and dunks down the field behind a passing offense ranked 25th. His 56.9% completion percentage surprises me. I love the Dolphins to win this one.

LSU -5.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Don't miss out easily the game of the week and we are confident in LSU's ability to win on the road in hostile environments. This is a rematch of last years 20-14 home victory by LSU and one thing is for sure both teams are different than they are a year ago. In my opinion West Virginia has digressed with Dana Holgorsen so far as the defense just is not the same with this up tempo offense coming off the field much quicker. The defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field in this game because LSU's defense is special. LSU prepared all off season for a spread attack with a special running game and that was not for West Virginia but for Oregon and they dominated that game in a 40-27 victory. Oregon is far better than West Virginia on offense with an elite running game that LSU shut down. West Virginia can not muster any sort of a running game just 79 yards per game. LSU also shut down the prolific Miss St's rushing game last week which was very impressive. West Virginia will go to the passing game and Geno Smith was 14-29 last year vs. LSU and I don't think it will be any prettier despite how explosive the offense has looked because they've been inconsistent. This is the first time they are facing a dominant defense that can get into the backfield. LSU now has 30 tackles for loss already. They'll easily take away the running game and the offense WV is going to run is not built to beat this LSU defense which is littered with speed athleticism and next level talent including a duo in the secondary that is making many forget about Patrick Peterson in Mathieu/Claiborne. My favorite stat is West Virginia's once dominating defense they were 2nd in sacks last year and 2nd in run defense. What happened? They have 1 sack through 3 games and do not seem as dominant as years past and that's the extra time they have spent on the field that's killing them. LSU behind a physical and veteran offensive line are starting to build some rhythm behind Spencer Ware. Jarret Lee is QB this year and I think that's a huge difference. He does not turn the ball over and LSU bone head turnovers seem to be cut down. In the match up they had 3 turnovers and 12 penalties yet they salvaged a win. I'm buying into this LSU team this year I think it comes down to their match up vs. Alabama on whether or not they got to the national championship.

Astros -118 (4.5* MLB POD) Rockies would obviously like to be somewhere else and they have shut down their 3 stars for the rest of the year in Tulo, Cargo, and Helton. JA Happ looks to build on his success since returning from AAA where he has a 2.40 ERA in 5 starts. He's had good starts vs. some of the NL's best including the Phillies and the Reds who are the best hitting team vs. LHP in OPS in the NL and now he gets to face a Rockies team that doesn't have their three best hitters. Hammell starts vs. the Rockies an dhe's been unable to put two quality starts together he is coming off a quality start so we feel he'll digress here today. Hammel over the last 3 years has 74.2 IP in September and a 6.03 ERA so we feel he may be looking towards the off season while the Astros have a lot of young talent that is competing right now trying to make the team for 2012. They are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a losing team and the Rockies are 17-40 in their last 57 as a road dog and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. LH starter. Colorado is also 8-27 in their last 35 at Houston and have a .191 average vs. LHP in their last 10 games while only scoring 2.75 runs pe r9 while the Astros are scoring 5.65 runs per 9 over their last 5 games overall.

Under 44 4.4* pod
And ucf +3 -120 3* bonus
The only reason I

[b]Cincinnati -7 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
Revenge is a beautiful thing and that

Angels -115 (4.5* MLB POD) Love the Angels here tonight with Santana on the mound as this team is still in the playoff race with just 2.5 games in back of the Red Sox who are off today. Santana has dominated the Jays over his last 6 starts he has a 2.25 ERA and I think he's going to bounce back this week. His last 2 starts vs. Toronto he's gone 9 and 8 innings and I think we can expect the same as the Jays have a collective .223 average vs. him. The biggest reason why I like the Angels is the Jays bullpen that has pitched 10 innings in the last 2 games will have to play a big role in tonight's game iwth the young Henderson Alverez who won't go deep in this game. Jays bullpen has an ERA as a 7.63 ERA in their last 10 games. Angels have been hitting well over their last 10 games .304 with 6.33 runs per 9 and they have a 1.57 bullpen era over that period they are 38-14 in their last 52 as a favorite while the Jays are 5-13 in their last 18 as a dog.

Royals +110 (4* MLB POD) Love the Royals today. They have been on fire winning 8 of 9 and the Tigers are resting guys right now. Paulino actually had a quality start vs. the Tigers this year when they were at full strength while Scherzer has a 5.33 ERA away and has given up 11 ER in just 8 innings pitched over his last 2 vs. the Royals and he's facing them at the wrong time as the Royals are on fire right now scoring more than 6 runs per 9 in their last 10 with an overall .340 average in their last 10 games while the Tigers vs. RHP are hitting .241 and 3.48 runs per 9. With Scherzer on the mound they are 3-9 in their last 12 as road fav -110 to -150 and they are 5-12 in their last 17 of his road starts vs. a losing team.

Rangers -135 (5* MLB POD) Harden vs. Holland repeat and the Rangers have all kinds of advantages here. Not only Is Oakland last 27th in the league with a .654 OPS vs. LHP, but they can't hit Derek Holland who has a 1.72 ERA in 5 career starts. Holland has 2 starts this year with 16 IP and just 2ER. Rich Harden can not say the same as in his two starts he gave up 9 ER in 9 IP to the Rangers and it could have been worse as 20 base runners reached base in just 9 innings of work. Over his career Kinsler/Hamilton/Moreland?Andrus have hit him hard 12-23. Adrian Beltre who is 2-16 is on a streak right now of 7 HR in 8 games that I think could play a factor here if they pitch to him since he's red hot .405 average over his last 9 games. Michael Young has also had success with a .390 OBP with over 30 at bats vs. Harden in his career. Texas over their last 10 games are hitting .313 vs. RHP while the A's are hitting .205 vs. LHP with just 3.05 runs per 9 while the Rangers are scoring 7.12 runs per 9 over their last 10 games. Also the A's bullpen is not as strong as they have a 6.21 bullpen ERA over their last 10. A's are 1-8 in their last 9 as a home dog and 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a LH starter while the Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 in Oakland and have to win as the Angels are breathing down their back and have a series this weekend with them.

Giants/Rams U44.5 (4.4* NFL POD) The stat on the board is the Rams inability to stop the run and the idea the Giants are going to come out and try to runt he ball. Yes they gave up 236 yards to the Eagles, but 97 came from Vick and they held them in check really through 3 quarters until the 4th. They can stop the run better than the pass and the Giants will try to run the ball early and fail and turn to the pass. I think that keeps this total under the mark tonight. Both teams have injuries that pretty much even out and both teams attack the QB and both teams struggled on 3rd down conversations last week they were last in the league in 3rd down conversions after week 1. That won't = points on the board and I think we will see a very ugly game tonight because of that. Eli Manning got sacked 4 times expect him to struggle yet again because Steve Spagnola knows this offense more than anyone when he was on the Giants staff. He'll be really agressive with the blitz packages and they were able to get to Vick pretty regularly and I expect them to be able to do that tonight ending a lot of drives for the Giants keeping this total under. Rams also get Robert Quinn to debut tonight. The Rookie has a lot of talent and should really help this team in the pass rush alongside of Chris Long and James Hall. On the other side expect the Rams to really struggle. Giants get Tuck back tonight and they have been able to stuff the run. Cadillac Williams will get most of the carries with Stephen Jackson's injury. I expect the Rams to attack the Giants in the air at first, but that will result in a lot of pressure on Bradford who I'm not so sure the Rams can protect long enough to find open men. At the end of the day I see a very sloppy game with turnovers not turning into points. I think the defenses will have advantages and I don't think the offenses will try to do too much.

Jays -137 (4.5* MLB POD)
Love the Jays behind Ricky Romero who is 8-3 with a 3.01 ERA at home this year and 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA during night starts. Angels line up are a combined 16-67 in their career vs. Romero for a .238 average with just 3 guys having success the rest of the line up is 2-25. Angels are 12-26 in their last 38 road games vs. a LH starter while the Jays are 21-5 in their last 26 when Romero starts and he faces a team that scored 5+ runs in previous game. The Jays are scoring roughlty 6 runs per game vs RHP and they face off against Jerome Williams who I'm just not buying he had two road starts against the A's and Mariners two of the worst hitting teams and he gave up 14 hits and 7 BB in just 11.1 IP that's a WHIP well over 2 and an ERA of 5.56.

Cowboys -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) People need to get off Tony Romo's back. I liked what I heard from him he is a veteran that can forget bad performances at this point. In 4th quarter Romo over his career has 38 TD's to 18 interceptions only throwing an interception every 31 attempts in the 4th quarter so I think the story about him playing clutch is way over hyped. People forget they nearly beat one of the best teams on the road int he Jets. Romo was 23-36 342 yards and that's impressive vs. a very good Jets secondary. Dez Bryant is starting to be the clear #1 and I think he's up for a big day on Sunday. Jason Witten should cause some big match up advantages as well. For the Niners offense we haven't seen much as Ginn Jr took 2 returns back for touch downs that helped him win the game. I still don't trust Alex Smith and I think the Cowboys though they are banged up in the secondary should be able to get away with that with their pass rush as the Niners offensive line is a work in progress. They averaged just 2.7 ypc vs. the Seahawks and the Cowboys were solid at stopping the run against the Jets. Niners are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win and 6-22-3 ATS in their last 31 following a win by more than 14 points.

Rangers RL -125 (4* MLB POD) Angels are breathing down the Rangers backs and I'm backing the Rangers to come back after last night's 4-0 defeat. Colby Lewis will start and in his 2 starts vs. the Mariners who struggle big time to score at home he's been great going 16.2 IP giving up 12 hits and only 3 ER while striking out 19. Seattle has a .185 average over their last 10 games vs. RHP with just 2.40 runs per 9 while the Rangers have dominated left handed pitching scoring 7.31 runs per 9 innings over there last 10 games vs. LHP with a .326 average. Anthony Vasquez has one start so far, but his stats in the minors are alarming to me as he has just a 5.40 K/9 ratio with over 3 BB/9.

Miami OH +5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love Miami Ohio as they are coming off a bye after holding a very explosive Missouri Offense to 17 points. Mizzo then went on the road to score 30 points vs. a very fast and athletic AZ State defense. QB Franklin is a dual threat that Miami Ohio kept in line and I don't think they'll have any problem with Minnesota QB MarQueis Gray who is a little bigger, but still should have no issue as this defense is for real that led them to a MAC Championship a year ago led by CB Dayonne Nunley and LB's Wedge and Harris forming the best secondary and linebackers in the MAC.

Minnesota as I said is a mess they just lost at home to New Mexico State and now there may be reason to believe they can bounce back but I don't see that reason facing a tough defense that is coming off a bye week well prepared for this very game after they lost opening weekend. Minnesota's strength is in their run defense and Miami Oh does not like to run the ball QB Zac Dysert is very good and should use his usual short passes for the running game moving the ball up and down the field. If they can finish in the red zone they should win out right. Something they could not do at Missouri, but Minnesota is no Missouri on defense. Dysert also gets his best receiver back this week as Sophmore WR Nick Harwell was suspended for hte first game. He had 64 receptions for 871 yards a year ago. Minnesota can't get the QB and that's dangerous if you give Dysert time as Minnesota was last in sacks in 2010 and so far through two games they have 0 sacks that includes against New Mexico State.. Mia OH is actually 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a dog and last 4 vs. the Big Ten and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a losing home record while Minnesota is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. I expect this game to be decided by a field goal. Miami Ohio's defense will keep this to a field goal game regardless.

Under 45 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Iowa State put up 44 but it was in OT vs. an Iowa team's defense that's in transition. This is the same team that struggled big time the week before against Northern Iowa. Uconn has had problems themselves on offense they do not know who their QB is and the running game is an obvious thing to stop for Iowa State that is allowing just 3.7 ypc. Uconn is big up front and Lyle McCombs comes in as the #12 rusher, but they have no balance the passing game has been awful and I expect an ugly game here tonight which will point to the under. Iowa State goes up against a very good Huskies defense that quietly had 7 sacks and 12 tackles for loss in their loss to Vanderbilt. Iowa State is under 19-7 in their last 26 overall and the Huskies under 22-8 in their last 30 after allowing less than 275 yards in previous game.

Red Sox -136 (4.5* MLB POD) The Sox are starting to feel the pressure and Josh Beckett takes the mound that usually is not a good thing for opponents and I'm backing him here over his last 3 starts vs. the Rays he's gone 24 IP and has absolutely dominated this team giving up just 6 hits and 1 BB and 0 ER. Upton and Zobrist are a combined 7-44 and the Rays overall 194 AB have a .211 average and .587 OPS. While the Sox have had some success vs. Shields who is not as good on the road and is off back to back 120+ outings including one dominant home start vs. the Red Sox in his last start. Ortiz,Pedroia, and Gonzalez are a combined 31-100 with 6 HR that's the 3,4, 5 int he line up which should mean good things for the Sox Friday night at home where they are 70-33 in their last 103 mettings with the Rays. Shields has never bene as good on the road 3.11 ERA this year is his best it's still almost a run from what he's done at home over the last 3 previous years he's had a 5.10 on the road and a 5.16 ERA in September. Rays are 7-15 in his last 22 starts vs. the Red Sox and his last 5 starts at Fenway he has a 5.68 ERA. Look for Beckett to control this game he's 10-1 when an opponent scores 5 or more runs in previous game so I'm not worried about how hot the Rays have been

LSU/MISST U51 (4.4* NCAAF POD); LSU -2.5 -125 (3* BONUS) Love LSU and the under in tonight

Cubs+141 (4* MLB POD) I like the Cubs as today's best bet as Randy Wells is flying under the radar big time. He's been great of late going 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA and the Cubs are 6-0 in his last 6 overall starts. In fact he has a 3.60 ERA during his night starts this year and over the last 3 years he's had 28 night starts and has posted a 2.99 ERA. He gave up 6 ER in 7 innings in his home start in early August and that could be another reason for this line, but his previous 7 starts vs. the Cubs he was 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Homer Bailey on the other hand has not been as lucky vs. the Cubs as they have a combined average of .309 and .916 OPS with 4 HR in 59 at bats. Over his last 3 he has a 1.87 WHIP and a 7.80 ERA. Cubs are hitting right now scoring +0.97 runs per 9 overall more than the Reds over the last 10 games and they have a better bullpen ERA too. Reds bullpen is a weakness of this team all year and will likely play an impact tonight as they have a 4.91 ERA over their last 5 games.

Royals -150 (4* MLB POD) The Twins are just beyond bad right now and I like the way Luke Hochevar has been pitching with a 3.32 ERA over his last 3 including a 1.06 WHIP and a 2.11 ERA over his last 3 home starts vs. some pretty good hitting teams in the Indians, Red Sox and Orioles and now he faces an injured Twins team that is 28th in the league vs. RHP in OPS and 23rd during day games. While the Royals are 9th during day games with a .743 OPS. Twins are 22-31 during day games this year and have a .171 overall average over their last 10 games while scoring just 2.02 runs per 9 and I just don't see that ending here against Hochevar who is 5-1 in his last 6 when favored. Twins are 6-22 in their last 28 vs. RH starter. Last time out he went 7 innings gave up just 3 hits and 1 ER vs. the Twins.

Red Sox -138 (4.5* MLB POD) Red Sox are now in a battle for the Wild Card with the Rays and I expect them to come up big on Tuesday against a pitcher they have always dominated in Brandon Morrow. The odds are where they are because Wakefield is pitching and Morrow has been miles better on the road than home this year. However I'm looking strictly at the numbers and the Blue Jays have 128 AB vs. Wakefield and a .242 average .642 OPS while the Red Sox have 134 AB vs. Morrow a .321 and 1.009 OPS. That's a huge difference and when you add in that the Sox are at home here fighting for the playoffs now I expect Wakefield to come up with a clutch outing. Morrow's last 5 starts vs. the Sox he has a 14.43 ERA and a 2.48 WHIP I don't see how he could go into this match up with any kind of confidence. Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Pedroia, and Scutoro combined are 30-64 with 5 HR.

Broncos -3 -120 (4.5* NFL POD) Broncos lost 59-14 last year at home in 1 of 2 games that the Raiders dominated them last year on a combined 98-37. I smell revenge here with the Broncos who were a pass happy team last year. That did not match up well when the Raiders were #2 in the league in getting to the QB and they had an elite secondary led by Nnamdi Asomugha. In the home loss Brandon Lloyd who led the league in receiving had just 3 targets as Asomugha just took him out of the game. While the Raiders safeties are solid the corners are a huge question mark with Chris Johnson (16 tackles, 2 INT) and raw rookies DeMarcus Van Dyke, and Chimdi Chekwa. This is going to have a few impacts on this game and this team this year. #1 I guarantee the Raiders will not be in the top 5 in pass defense or sacks like they were a year ago as they ranked #2 in both respectifully. Also look for Kyle Orton to test this team on the edges with speedy receivers. lastly Oakland was 29th vs. the run and the Raiders did not do anything to really change that. John Fox who takes over as the Broncos head coach is a run first type coach and I expect a much more balanced approach from the Broncos this year which should have an impact in week #1. Oakland was tops in 3rd down stops allowing just 34.8% without Asomugha this is going to change. Denver has the edge here and I think they also have the edge in the passing game which they did not a year ago.. Now how do they stop the Raiders on defense because they did give up 98 points a year ago. Enter Von Miller and immediately you improve your defense which was last in the league in sacks a year ago. I think you see him getting to Campbell early and often and playing a huge part in the Broncos win. Denver has won 16 of their last 22 week 1 games and are 11-0 in their last 11 home openers. Oakland has lost 11 straight on Monday night. Lastly Kevin Boss replaced Zach Miller and though Boss was productive he's a new player and not as good as Miller. It will take time for Boss and Campbell to get on the same page.

A's -138 (4.5* MLB POD) Gio Gonzalez makes a home start for the A's and that usually means good things especially when he's favored as he's 13-3 in his last 16 favored between -110 to -150. A's are 47-22 in their last 59 as favorites between that number, but looking at the match up I like this even more as he faces off against the Angels who in his last 3 home starts has dominated going 20 innings giving up 0 ER and just 9 hits. Joel Pineiro will oppose him and Pineiro has struggled in 3 starts vs. the A's this season he's given up 22 hits 6 walks in just 13.2 IP for a 9.22 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. In his last 6 road starts in Oakland dating back to 2006 he has a 10.29 ERA he has never liked pitching here for whatever reason. Overall in his last 4 road starts he's given up 18 ER in 15 innings and that includes a struggle with the AL's worst team the Mariners. Pineiro just is not a good road pitcher with an ERA approaching 6 this year on the road. To make matters worse the A's hit him hard as DeJesus, Matsui, Pennington, are 26-75 for an average of .375 vs. him. Overall the A's have 165 ab with a .303 average and .783 ops. Angels are just 1-5 in their last 6 and this misconception that the A's can't hit at home is over rated they are scoring 4.5 runs per 9 and they have a team ERA of 3.15 so they are very capable. They just do it the old fashioned way.

Falcons -1.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Two of the best teams from a year ago and I think it says a lot that the Falcons have moved to slight favorites here. Bears have disgruntled players two key players want a better contract in Forte and Briggs and while it won't have a huge impact they still won't be as hungry on Sunday's. Bottom line though the reason I'm on the Falcons so large is their offense and defense has improved for 2011. No question about it they were +52 yards compared to the Bears offense and they add Julio Jones who will be able to stretch the field a bit and remove the double team on Rhoddy White. I'm excited to see what this offense can do against a very good defense on the road. Falcons put up 200 points on the road a year ago and went 6-2 so I'm confident they should have no trouble scoring especially behind a returned offensive line which has been the key to the success of Ryan over the past 3 years. Too bad Cutler can not say the same. Bears offensive line is a mess they have a new center and Cutler was sacked an NFL worst 52 times a year ago. Now the Falcons added Ray Edwards from the Vikings to go on the other side of John Abraham and this pass rush is going to be one of the best in the league. There are also whispers that the Bears are not happy that Roy Williams is getting playing time and that could result in players quitting on a team. Overall I do not like the attitude on the Bears side vs. what is going on with Matt Ryant and the Falcons. I think Falcons role by a touch down.

Utah +9 (5* NCAAF POD) Utah 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 as a road dog and USC is 3-9 ATS after a straight up win which I was just not impressed. USC was held to 2.4 yards per carry which was not surprising because this offensive line is super thin they lost 5 veterans in the off season. Utah's defensive line is a real strength and they should dominate USC in the trenches, tackle Star Lotolelei and Shelby/Kruger on the outside getting pressure with the line backers behind them who play hard this defense should be able to keep their team in the game. USC does have Matt Barkley and Robert Woods who had 17 receptions a week ago, but they were scoreless in the 2nd half vs. Minnesota and were lucky to hold onto the game vs. the Gophers. Utah is heading into their first Pac -12 game and there is no doubt they are pointing to this game and it certainly showed vs. Montana State which their poor play I feel has a lot to do with this line that continues to come down towards to a touchdown. Utah did not show a lot I don't care what anyone says and they did that on purpose. Jordan Wynn is capable of opening things up and I think Norm Chow the old offensive coordinator for USC under Carson Palmer and Matt Leinert will allow him to on Saturday night. Utah still rushed the ball 38 times for 191 yards and the name most will need to remember after this game is John White IV as he is a real star and has real speed. The Juco transfer had a 150 yards rushing a week ago. USC was 109th in the nation in pass defense and have all 4 starters back which is not necessarily a good thing. Minnesota's two QB's although not efficient were 14-25 for 192 yards. This defense struggles to close games and does wear down and struggle on 3rd down defense and red zone defense and that's never a good thing when you are favored at home by more than a TD.

Cardinals -145 (4.5* MLB POD) The Braves face a lefty in Garcia and are last in the NL in OPS vs. LHP, while the Cardinals face a righty in Lowe who are #1 in the NL in OPS vs. RHP. Jaime Garcia has a 2.64 ERA at home this year and he's 14-2 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Braves have a .224 average in 48 AB vs. Garcia as he posts a 2.08 ERA in 2 starts vs. them in 2 years. Braves struggles vs. LHP continue as they are scoring just 1.56 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 and on the road this year they have an OVERALL average of .198 scoring just 2.38 runs per 9 vs. LHP. The Cardinals meanwhile who rallied to win in 10 innings last night face a righty in Derek Lowe who they have beat up in the past. In fact Lowe's last 3 vs. the Cardinals have resulted in an 10.93 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Berkman, Furcal, Holliday, and PUjols are a combined 43-109 with 5 HR for a .394 average. While Lowe has great success in September we feel that's behind him with his age he showed in his last road start vs. a good hitting Phillies team that he could not get guys out. He'll need to be superb to give the Braves a shot and I think there is just too much talent in the other dug out. He's also on just 4 days rest where the Braves are 0-7 in his last 7 on 4 days and are 0-5 in their last 5 in St. Louis. Look for the Cardinals to win at home and continue their success vs. RHP.

Rockies -138 (5*MLB POD) Love the Rockies today because of the pitching match up as Chacin takes on Bailey and the Reds. The Rockies are 23-6 in their last 29 home games vs. the Reds. The Rockies are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a losing team and the Reds on the road vs. a winning home team which is what the Rockies are, are 20-42 in their last 62. Homer Bailey is 2-4 on the road with a 4.67 ERA while Chacin is 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA at home and a 3.02 at night. Bailey in 4 career starts vs. the Rockies has a 7.23 ERA and a 2.73 WHIP. While Chacin has 14 IP 4 ER in two starts vs. the Reds this year who are scoring almost a full run less on the road vs. RHP than LHP. In fact the active hitters for the Reds have 53 AB vs. Chacin and a .189 average and .498 OPS while the Rockies have 61 AB vs. Bailey for a .344 average and a .923 OPS. Tulo/Smith and Cargo combined are hitting .500 with 3 HR off Bailey. Rockies are hitting .277 and are scoring 6.09 runs per 9 at home vs. RHP while the Reds are under 4 runs per 9.per 9.

Dbacks -170 (4.5* MLB POD) Dbacks go with Ian Kennedy at home who has a 2.93 ERA and ARizona has a .341 average and 1.145 OPS vs. Corey Luebke who has pitched over his head all year long and he's entering new territory as he is not used to pitching this many innings at this point of the year. He's got a 6.57 ERA and he faces a red hot Dbacks team hitting .330 vs. LHP over their last 10 games and are a good home team vs. LHP. Padres are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings and Kennedy has dominated the Padres this year with a 2.07 ERA.

Saints/packers Over 47.5 (4.4* NFL POD); Saints +5 (3* play) I got to say that with the short pre season with teams getting in late it will have more of an impact on the defense. As always the offense knows where the ball is going the defense does not. Yes the Packer were ranked 2nd in points allowed and yes they were 5th in sacks, but that was last year. Sometimes returning the same players in this league does not guarantee you results in a new year. The Saints have been said to have a very organized off season and I love their three headed monster in the backfield with Sproles, Ingram and Thomas to help Brees out with balance which they will have. Brees also has a electrifying TE in his own Jimmy Graham who will out play Jermicah Finley tonight shocking everyone as these two teams go back and forth. The game will end up getting decided by a field goal or 4 points on a touchdown to win the game in my opinion. Saints put up 51 points in 2008 on this team and though it

Arizona +14 4.5* ncaaf pod
This one has all the talent and excitement you would want on a Thursday night game.

Giants -133 (4* MLB POD); I love Cain on the road during a day start he's got a 2.81 ERA on the road and a 2.14 ERA during day starts and I have a feeling Carlos Beltran is about to carry this team back into contention. He's red hot right now 12-21 over the last 7 days and he faces Harrang who he has a .304 average against with a .950 OPS. Harrang has a 3.84 ERA during day not as good during the night. The Padres meanwhile have a 186 career at bats active in the line up vs. Matt Cain with a .204 average and a .641 OPS while the Giants have 221 at bats and a .271 average and a .784 OPS vs. Harrang. Giants are 16-5 in their last 21 meetings vs. the NL west while the Padres are 6-25 in their last 31 vs. NL West.