Cappers Sports Picks

Clemson +6 4.4* NCAAB POD
Clemson is a tough opponent on their own court and Miami will be in for a real test today. Clemson is ranked 31st int he nation in two point defense and Miami's offense really has not been tested on the road until today. If you recall this is a team that struggled on the road against Boston College. Clemson really needs this victory for any hopes at a post season and facing the #3 team in the nation is something to be excited for the home crowd. I also like that this game is on a Sunday and that Miami has Virginia up next which is more of a serious game for the Hurricanes being that Virginia is 3rd in the ACC. I see Clemson being able to shock Miami today. While they may not win they are going to give Miami issues.

Nebraska +9.5 4.4* POD; Nebraska +425 1* bonus

This is an interesting spot for the Spartans who just beat their rival in Michigan in dominating fashion. Next they have Indiana back at home who they lost to earlier in the year. This is an odd spot for a road trip to play Nebraska a team they don't have any kind of rivalry with. Nebraska on the other hand is looking to be taken seriously in the league still and have revenge after they lost to Michigan State on the road by 10. The one thing Nebraska has going for them is their defense. They actually play better defense from a FG% perspective in conference play than Michigan State which is saying a lot. Nebraska at home is even better where they allow opponents to shoot just 39.3% compared to Michigan State's 44.5% on the road.

Nebraska won't allow Michigan State to get out in transition as they are only turning the ball over 9.9 times a game and only allowing opponents 49.9 FGA so I expect this game to be your typical Big Ten match up with Nebraska having a real shot in the end at pulling off the upset at home with Michigan State looking ahead to their big match up with Indiana.

Manhattan +2.5 3.3* NCAAB POD
Iona beat Manhattan at home by 8 as 13 point favorites but really the only difference was Iona shooting 10-16 from three and being +11 in FTA and +6 in turnovers. Manhattan out rebounded them by 10 and shot 48.2% from the field. IN conference play these teams are literally identical as far as raw stats go. Manhattan will pick up their defense in this game and give Iona issues especially at home where they only allow opponents to shoot 26.7%. Iona who will chuck up 20+ three points nearly 40% of their shots is just 32% on the road. Different ball game here as Manhattan wins.

Colorado +2.5 5.5* NCAAB POD
Huge revenge game here for the Buffaloes and they are at home against a ranked team in the national spot light. They nearly beat Arizona on their own court, but a 3 that won it at the buzzer by Sabatino Chen was later called back because his finger was still on the ball as time expired. They ended up losing in OT and this happened after they led by 16 with 12:40 left and 8 with 1:35 left. Colorado plays better at home and Arizona could be in a little bit of a hang over spot after losing to Cal in shocking fashion. Playing at elevation is never easy and Arizona is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. PAC 12. I think we are getting a lot of value especially since Colorado is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a win % > .600.

Penn State +7.5 (2.2* bonus)
Nothing great separates these two teams and Penn state lost by just 2 on the road despite being -23 FTA and -9 rebounds and -4 TO. Those three things won

[b]Rockets +10.5 3.3* NBA POD[/b]
Rockets are a pretty decent team and the Clippers just played awesome back to back games on the road to beat the slicers and Knicks but come home after the long road trip and have a game tomorrow night against their rival Lakers. This is an interesting sandwich game and I could see the Clippers slipping up or slacking off in the fourth while theRockets will cover.

[b]Texas +1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD[/b]
Texas really needs this game to jump start their season at any hopes of any post season action. Iowa State is 2-6 on the road 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and already beat Texas at home by 20 points. Iowa State relies on the three a ton shooting 43.5% of their shots from their. At home against Texas they dominated shooting 11-26 from there. That won't happen again as Texas defense the perimeter better than most teams in the nation only allowing 22.3% from three at home and 28.2% in conference play. Overall they only allow teams to shoot a combined 31.9% from the field. Iowa State will have issues scoring here and they won't get to the FT line 14 more times than the Longhorns like they did at home. This is a revenge game for Texas and this is a team that has played really well at home at times nearly beating Kansas earlier this year.

Manh +8 4.4* pod

[b]Bobcats +4 3.3* NBA pod[/b]
I think there is value here with the bobcats facing an older Boston team here tonight on 0days rest and after playing in 3 ots last night. They also are still playing without Rondo and they have the bulls up next.

Celtics -2 5.5* NBA POD

[b]BC +12 4.4* NCAAB POD BC +625 1* Bonus[/b]
Duke has their biggest rival up next in UNC and now they have to travel Sunday morning instead of Saturday night to play Boston College. BC should be ready for this game in a unique environment because of the blizzard that hit the Northeast. I expect a pretty energized crowd. BC is 2-7 in conference play but they are only losing by an average margin of 4.9 points. 43% of their shots come from three and Duke is clearly vulnerable on the road allowing opponents to shoot 37.3%. I can see BC getting hot at the right time here. Duke also relies on the three but on the road they shoot 30.7%.

Boston is 15-7-1 ATS following an ATS loss as they lost to Miami in Miami who had revenge. BC has been good at home they nearly beat Miami as +6 and NC State as +7. 12 points is a lot for Duke in this spot and if BC can get hot from three they could pull out a shocker.

3.3* pod

Memphis +2.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I feel their is some good value here on Memphis. For one this is the best defensive team Southern Miss will play all year and that could be a problem. They are just 4-4 vs. teams ranked in the top 103 in the country in 2 point % defense. Memphis is 18th and 10th on the road in 2 point defense where most of Southern Miss shots come from. Even in their 4 wins vs. those top teams they never won by more than 4 points. Memphis in my opinion does not drop off on the road where they are 5-0 and they know this could decide the conference here today. Memphis should get to the line more as they have all year +8.7 FTA compared to Southern Miss -5.5 FTA. Southern Miss is also just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. the Conference USA.

Wizards -1.5 3.3* NBA POD

Yale +1 3.3* NCAAB POD
I like Yale in this spot they are 16-7 ATS following an ATS loss while Penn is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a losing team. Penn is beat up by injuries and they'll have troubles tonight rebounding the ball with Fran Dougherty injured again. Dougherty was their one bright spot as they are 306th in rebounding %. Yale meanwhile is 133rd and has been rebounding even better in recent weeks with a 53.7% in their last 3 games. I see them winning this game tonight.

4.4* play

Pistons -1.5 3.3* NBA POD
I like the Pistons in this spot, the Brooklyn Nets are not playing good basketball and they will likely be a little hung over from their effort against the Lakers where they came up short just last night. They are clearly disappointed in that game and the Pistons are the type of team that gives them issues. The Pistons are among the best in defense ranked 10th in opponent shooting %. The Nets are just 2-7 vs. teams ranked in the top 11 and beat Detroit by only 2 in OT at home. I think the Pistons will have some revenge on their mind and they are clearly playing better ball right now. The Nets have eclipsed 100 points only 1 time in their last 10 games and on 0 days rest they allow their most points. Pistons have averaged 102.4 points in their last 5 home games. Detroit is also 8th in total rebound % and has won 42 of 47 at home against the Nets who clearly do not like paying here.

Ravens +4 5.5* NFL POD; U48 3.3* Bonus
Honestly this game to me comes down to a coin flip. You can read my blog articles to get my feeling on all the break downs and match ups if you need more betting confidence. I see tremendous value on getting more than a FG in this game where the battles seem to be very even to me. A few things do stick out especially what Baltimore has had to do to get to this point and who they beat to get here, but overall I think the Ravens will be in position to win this game. They have a more experienced QB in Joe Flacco who does not get rattled by anything and wants to prove he's an elite QB so he can get paid in the off season. There is potentially millions riding on this game for Flacco and the Ravens should be able to put together a gameplan on defense to stop this hype surrounding Colin Kaepernick. If I am wrong I'll tip my cap to him, but I think with two weeks to prepare the Ravens will be ready.

Some interesting advantages for Baltimore are special teams and red zone efficiency. First ofa ll nobody missed more FG's than David Akers this year. They were 31st in FG %, and he's only 50% over the last three games. Meanwhile Baltimore is 100% in the post season and 5th overall with a 91.43%. Both teams are similar in third down conversion offense and defense and have played similar teams, but the real difference comes in the red zone.

Not only are the Ravens finally healthy but they are dominating opponents in the red zone and good ones at that. They've held the last three opponents to 40% TDs in the red zone and two of those teams were ranked 3rd and 6th overall. Baltimore is 2nd overall and with the 49ers not having many options at WR and Baltimores ability to not allow TD's to TE (2 all year) I love their chances of continuing this success. The 49ers on the other hand well they were ranked 27th in the regular season and allowed 72% conversions in the red zone on the road. They've had issues stopping opposing TE's in the zone and the Ravens have a good one in Pitta and some could even say Anquan Boldin is like a TE. Offensively Baltimore has converted 80% of their red zone chances but they will also stretch the field with Torrey Smith. San Francisco was ranked just 15th in red zone offense. Kaepernick is going to have to make plays in the red zone and he doesn't even have a full season under his belt. There is a lot he has not seen in the NFL and I'm sure Baltimore will have a few tricks up their sleeves.

Wofford +8 5.5* NCAAB POD
Davidson getting a little too much credit here as they'll face off against the #1 scoring defense in the Southern Conference in Wofford. The fact that Davidson relies on the three so much and Wofford has allowed just a 26.2% at home makes me believe Wofford could have a shot to win this game. Wofford outscored Davidson in the second half on an earlier season meeting as they lost 56-63 at Davidson. A team that shoots a ton of threes on the road is not going to win rebound margin and that's where Wofford could win this game. They are also getting to the line more frequently than opponents and they don't turn the ball over. These are all recipes for pulling off the upset. Davidson is just 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games and Wofford is 12-4 ats in their last 16 home games. This is a hidden gem in the many games going on this Saturday

4.4* pod

TX San Antonio +8.5 4.4* NCAAB POD; TX San Antonio +355 1* play
Denver nearly shoots 50% of their shots from three and they are not very good at it on the road shooting just 30% beyond the arch. Now Texas San Antonio already lost by 25 at Denver, but this is a revenge game and a long way to travel for Denver. In that game Denver shot 53.1% from the field and 47% from three. That won't happen again tonight and if we look at the other stats TX San Antonio actually out rebounded them by 8 and were +14 in FT attempts. TX is playing better ball winning 3 ATS as big time dogs winning two outright. I would not be shocked to see them win the game tonight considering Denver will also lose the FTA and rebound margin here tonight.

DePaul 3.3* pod

Ole MIss -2.5 3.3** NCAAB POD
This game should be a tight one, but Miss has a lot to prove and show at home with the national spotlight against a young Kentucky team. Kentucky goes up against the best defense they have faced all year and they have struggled against the top 100 defensive teams they have faced. The Rebels are ranked 22nd in effective field goal % defense and Kentucky has struggled against Louisville 75th, Notre Dame 92nd, and Bama 93rd. I look for the same story line here as Miss is 5th in points per game on the season and has been a juggernaut at home. They should dominate free throw attempts and points as well as turnovers as Kentucky is 92nd in the nation in turning the ball over with a 20.3% of possessions on the road. Meanwhile Miss has been forcing 20+ at home and is ranked 14th with a 26.8% of opponent possessions ending in a TO. Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 and may not be ranked, but there is no way MIssissippi will be overlooking Kentucky who are the defending National Champions.

Cavs +1.5 5.5* NBA POD Kylie Irving has the Cavs playing some good basketball and the Warriors are playing their 4th game in just 5 days and they are short handed again. Curry and Bogut I believe will likely be out of this game but if they start I still feel comfortable with the Cavs covering and winning this game. Cavs have won 4 of their last 5 games including their last three straight up as under dogs.

E. Wash -2 4.4* NCAAB POD
Both Portland State and Eastern Washington have been struggling to find wins, but Eastern Washington should get one tonight being that they are home. Eastern Washington shoots 43.5% of their shots from three point rangea nd it just happens that Portland State is terrible defending the triple ranked 335th and their are only 3 teams worse than they are at defending it on the road where they allow opponents to shoot 42.4%. Ironically Eastern Washingtons three wins at home have come against teams ranked in the bottom in effective FG % defense in Idaho State (282nd), Northern Arizona (324th), and Cal Fullerton (322nd) and Portland State is worse than all of them ranking 333rd. Eastern Washington has also proven they can play good defense in conference play holding opponents to 39.8% from the field. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and I expect them to be 8-1 after tonight.

Magic +9.5 3.3* NBA POD I think we are getting tons of value here with the Magic since the Nets are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and are looking ahead to their showdown at home against the Miami Heat on Wednesday. Orlando meanwhile has been having their own problems losing 5 straight up and ATS and now we catch some major value. The Nets don't deserve to be laying 9.5 points the way they've been playing. For one they have been dominated in the paint and they could have issues again tonight as the Magic are 10th in 2 point offense % wise. Brooklyn has already beaten the Magic 3 times so I doubt they'll take them too seriously in this one. Expect the Nets to be a little laid back int his one just coming off a 4 game road trip their longest of the season. The Nets are 6-15-2 ATS in their last 22 after allowing 100+ points in previous game.

Missouri State -1 5.5* NCAAB POD
Drake is just 2-4 on the road this year and lost by 12 on their own court earlier to Missouri State. Drake getting some extra credit here after beating ranked Creighton in their last game and I think there is potential for a major hang over here as they have allowed opponents to shoot 49% from the field and 40.7% form 3 in their road games. MIssouri State has played much better in conference play and is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the MIssouri Valley Conference while Drake is 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Auburn +7.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Great spot for Auburn at home on a Saturday night to pull a major upset against a very good and ranked Mississippi team. Ole Miss may be peaking ahead to Tuesday night when they'll host Kentucky followed by a big match up with Florida to follow. Ole Miss is struggling of late to score as they shot just 36.7% from the field on Thursday so I feel this team is very vulnerable right now. Auburn's ability to force turnovers at home get to the FT line more than opponents and win the rebound margin are all reasons why I'm confident you could even see Auburn pull the upset tonight. Auburn after all has won the last two meetings at home as an under dog and are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 Saturday games as well as 45-20-2 ATS in their last 67 vs. the SEC.

Wizards +2 3.3* POD

Mavericks +1 (4.4* NBA POD)
The Mavericks won

W. Carolina +8 2.2* bonus play
Davidson has never been a good road team partially because they rely on the three pointer way too much. Theya re 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 road games. West Carolina lost to Elon in their last home game as a favorite and will look to redeem themselves. They play great defense from the perimeter ranking 55th in the country holding opponents to 30.6%. In conference plays these two teams are pretty close as West Carolina

Bradley +7.5 2.2* BONUS
I like Bradley in this spot against Evansville again both of these teams are very similar and neither one of them rebounds the ball well. 7.5 points is a lot of value especially since Evansville has not been a dominating home team allowing opponents to shoot better from the floor 46.2% than their % of 45.2. They also are only +.2 in rebound margin and Bradley can be efficient with the perimeter game shooting 40% from the field in conference play while Evansville has given up 40% in conference play from 3. That should be enough to allow Bradley to cover.

New Mexico State -1.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Denver has the losing record on the road at 3-5 to New Mexicos 9-1 record at home. Denver has played better in conference play outscoring opponents by nearly 14 while New Mexico is at 4.1, but Denver relies too much on three pointers which does not transition well on the road. In fact they are shooting nearly 50% of their shot attempts from three point range thus they are one of the worst rebounding teams and they are going up against one of the best rebounding teams in New Mexico state ranked 7th best in home rebounding % while there are only 13 teams worse than Denver in rebounding % on the road. New Mexico St should dominate in the paint as Denver is ranked 143rd in 2point % defense. Until Denver proves they can shoot the ball from 3 on the road I

Clippers +1.5 4.4* NBA POD
The Clippers were clearly looking ahead to this game after losing last night in Golden State while the Thunder have played in back to back OT games on the road. The Clippers are 19-4 at home and all 4 of their losses are against subpar teams. This team always seems to muscle up for the big opponents beating the Grizzlies, Spurs, Heat, Bulls, Nuggets, Celtics, and Jazz at home. The dog is 10-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Thunder are 2-5 ats in the last 7 meetings. I think we get some value here because of the Clippers are on 0 days rest, but I think they have a significant advantage with this game being at home at 10:30pm when the Thunder are not used to playing. Right now these are the two favorite for the conference finals and the Clippers would like to make a statement.

Alabama +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD
I really like Alabama here in this spot as Kentucky is now 1-6 ATS in their last 7 in conference play. You bet Alabama wants to defeat Kentucky who is a young team once again and now they are continuing to get too much credit in my opinion. They'll have to play a style of basketball they are not accustomed to as the Tide love to throw 4 guards on the court and go up tempo. Now Kentucky definitely has the talent and athleticism, but they did lose to Texas A&M a team that uses a similar approach at times. I also like Alabama's ability to win the turnover battle as they are +3 at home to Kentucky's -4 turnover margin at home. I believe Alabama's guards will out play Kentucky's for a quality win as a home dog.

Bulls -1 3.3* NBA POD
With or without Luol Deng I think the Bulls should win this game the way the Lakers are playing right now. The team

Georgetown +6 3.3* NCAAB POD
Georgetown will have an advantage in the paint on Monday and Notre Dame is struggling right now. They lost consecutive games at home before winning on Saturday, but this is a team that looks lost when they don

Nuggets +1.5 4.4* NBA POD
Denver definitely looking ahead to this game after losing Friday night at home to the Wizards as a 10.5 point favorite. Now the public is backing the Thunder to the tune of 70% and the line is not moving much. Denver plays up to the competition at home already beating the Clippers, Grizzlies, Spurs and Lakers. The Thunder will have a tough time after allowing over 100 points in their game on Friday night. Denver is 54-26-1 ATS in their last 81 when facing an opponent who allowed 100+ in previous game. The Thunder were lucky to get by the Mavericks and now Russell Westbrook will face a team that's better on defense than the Mavericks.

Falcons +4 5.5* NFL POD; Falcons +185 3* play; U49.5 2.2* play
So it seems hard to find anyone to be on the Falcons, but I am once against this week. Everyone thinks what the 49ers did to the Packers is going to happen again. I think the public is over reacting to one game here. For one the 49ers unleashed their pistol package running out of it 45% of the time in that game while they ran just 7 times in the last two games of the season. The Falcons should be able to put a game plan together that can defend against it. After all Colin Kaepernick is not that experienced playing in this type of environment. I look for the Falcons to bring their safeties up and also blitz the 49ers quite a bit trying to force Kaepernick into mistakes. The 49ers have struggled at times on the road and particularly in domes where they were just 1-2 this year. There are many reasons for that and one of them is their pass protections still is not very good ranked 28th on the season in sack% allowed while the Falcons are ranked 7th and Matt Ryan was not sacked a single time against the Seahawks who have a pretty good pass rush in their own right.

I think the banged Smith's on the DL will finally catch up to this team on the road this week. Much of the public was on the Packers last week and now many are running to bet on them given how the Falcons almost gave up their big lead to Russell Wilson. Matt Ryan and the Falcons do face a stiff task against the 49ers, but the 49ers are facing the best group of receivers they have all year long and you can not forget about the TE. Tony Gonzalez is still getting it done and there were only 6 teams that gave up more TD's to TE's this year than the 49ers. That should be a huge key here as the 49ers just were not very good in the red zone on the road. In fact they were dead last allowing 79% TD's in the red zone. The Falcons on the other hand were ranked 5th on the season allowing 46.81% TD's in the red zone and the 49ers offense only scoring 48% TD's in the red zone on the road.

That's another reason why I like the under in this game despite the total going over 15-4-1 in the last 10 years in championship games. But I think this total is quite high considering the Falcons have only allowed 1 team to score more than 30 points all year long. The 49ers usually came back with a dud after scoring more than 30 points or more this season including a combined 29 points after BUF/NO/NE. I'm not suggesting that will happen again here, but playing on the road in a dome in a loud environment is no easy task for a first year QB. Don't expect to see what we saw last week as I can see the Falcons holding on for a win.

Grizzlies -125 5.5* NBA POD
Got to love the Grizzlies tonight. Both teams are on 0 days rest and without arguably their best players in Luol Deng and Zach Randolph. Grizzlies seem to have the better defensive team despite both being in the top 10 in defense efficiency. I like the Grizzlies ability to play on short rest and the Bulls just came off an emotional victory in Boston last night that took OT to get there. Memphis is actually 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games on 0 days rest and they are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 combined for more than 160 minutes so they are used to playing well in these type of situations.

The Bulls also have the Lakers up next and played Boozer and Noah over 40 minutes last night. Those two guys are the key to their defensive intensity and I think they'll struggle with the athletic Grizzlies tonight who are ranked 2nd in defense efficiency. The Bulls have not fared well against good defense teams going just 1-8 straight up against teams ranked in the top 7 in defense efficiency. They already lost and were held to a season low 71 points in a loss to Memphis.

Texas +9 4.4* NCAAB POD; Texas +340 1*bonus
Texas has a very talented back court that can lead them to victory here at home. Thus far they are winless in the Big 12 so they'd love to get that out of the way and what better time than against #4 ranked team in the country on national television. Kansas comes into this game very confident just blowing out Baylor 61-44 at home, but on the road they have not been nearly as good. Texas meanwhile has been one of the best defenses in the Big 12 and hold opponents under 30% shooting in their home games where they beat North Carolina handily as +4.5 under dogs. I think the Texas back court will be the difference today led by Sheldon McClllellan, Julien Lewis and Javan Felix, but they will win this game with defense.

***Bonus Play***
4 point teaser
Texas A&M +11.5 with Arizona State +11 3.3* play

Mavericks +6 4.4* NBA POD; Mavericks +200 .5* play I think there is just too much value here to not play this game especially the way the Mavericks have been playing winning their last 3 at home and holding opponents to 39% from the field. Dallas have given Russell Westbrook fits in Dallas as he only averaged 16 points in two games here last year and 35.5% shooting. I think this Mavericks team is rounding into form with a healthy Dirk Nowitzki and I think they will look to make a statement here tonight after losing in OT in December on the road to the Thunder with Dirk coming off the bench in just his second game. The dog is 21-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

3.3* TOP PLAY

Warriors +2.5 3.3* POD

3.3* NCAAB POD

Depaul +7 3.3* NCAAB POD
I like Depaul here being at home against Cincinnati whose offense has started to struggle in conference playing averaging over 11 points less than their season average in their last 7 games. In those 7 games they have only averaged 62.9 points and now they go on the road to play a Depaul team that has one of its best teams in recent years. The Blue Demons have averaged 75.3 points and have not scored less than 69 all season. They have a duo in Brandon Young and Cleveland Melvin. Depaul needs a big time conference win and the dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 match ups.

Rockets -145 4* NBA POD
Clippers just played last night and got a much needed win and now they'll play the Rockets who have had a couple of days off which is huge for a team that relies on their starting 5 score more than 75% of their points. The Clippers have played their worst defense by far on 0 days rest allowing 100.4 points per game. Their next worst defense is on 3+ days rest allowing 92.5 so it is obvious this team has trouble playing on back to back nights in my opinion where they are 3-5 ATS. I see the Rockets who have played well at home getting a big time win.

NORTHWESTERN -1 4.4* NCAAB POD

Falcons -2.5 5.5** NFL POD
Originally I liked the Seahawks, but upon further research this is just a bad bad match up for them. First of all it's not easy traveling all the way back west and then coming all the way back to play a game where your body feels like it's 10AM. Then you have to play a team that has to be hungrier than ever led by Matt Ryan who has not won a playoff game but is due for a big one.

The Falcons have handled good running teams all year despite being among the worst to stop it from a ypc aspect. They went 5-1 against teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing ypc. That's because they get out to early leads forcing opponents to pass the ball. The Seahawks have passed the ball significantly more on the road as it is and they fell behind quick to the Redskins and were probably lucky that RG III was not 100%. I see the Seahawks coming out a little flat in this game and it doesn't help that they have not faced many elite QB's this year. They only faced three in my mind in New England, Green Bay and Detroit. They got lucky in both New England and Green Bay in home games and then lost to a bad Detroit team in a dome on the road. Their defense also only went up against 2 teams in the top 9 in sack %. Matty Ryan is 7th only sacked 4.35% of his drop backs and they have more weapons than all of the 3 previously mentioned teams on the outside.

Speaking of domes. Russell Wilson has not fared well this year. He's been great at home and even really good on the road over his last three games, but he played two road games in domes this year and in those games he lost both and threw 4 interceptions to just 2 TD's. If the Falcons can get up early they can ride their crowd in this one and I really think they will come out firing on all cylinders early to control this game and finally get a win. This team was different this year getting big wins when I thought they wouldn't and I'm very confident being on the Falcons side in this game.

Citadel +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD Citadel will take on Samford who just came off a road victory as a +15 under dog. That was a huge win for a program that lost at home in the previous game to Chattanooga by 4 points the same team Citadel lost to in their last game by 5 so I feel comfortable with the 4.5 points we are getting here especially since Samford just came off a huge win. Citadel is also a better rebounding team as Samford is ranked 338th with a 43.6% total rebound rate. They have also shown the ability to shoot FT's better than Samford by a far margin as they are shooting 80% at home from the charity stripe. Meanwhile their biggest weakness is turnovers averaging 17.4 per game. A lot of that came against some stiff competition, but here today they face Samford's guards who are only forcing 10.5 turnovers per game and rank 224th in the nation in turnovers forced per possession at 19.3%.

Ravens +10 -125 5** NFL POD Ravens +330 0.5* play
Call me crazy, but I even think the Ravens could win this game. They are healthy for the first time all season on defense and we saw that last week when they kept the Colts out of the end zone. Peyton Manning is 9-0 in his last 9 vs. the Ravens and he'll have his fun today, but historically he has not played well in his first game after a bye week. First of all I think the bye week is over rated unless you have a ton of injuries. Why? Well it's not like you get to prepare for one team for 2 weeks. You don't know who your opponent is and for a team like Denver that was red hot on a big winning streak of 11 to close out the season this is the last thing I would think they wanted. Since 1990 teams with 8+ game winning streaks to close a season and had a bye are just 3-16 ATS when they are laying more than 3 points in that first game.

Manning also has not been his usual elite self and this time he won't have the benefit of playing in a dome. In his career he has had 4 byes and those teams averaged 27 points. In that first playoff game Manning's offense only averaged 19.5 points more than a TD difference from his season average. So you tell me did the bye really allow Manning an advantage over the competition?

Next Denver backers are claiming how elite their run defense is. They are #2 in run defense efficiency allowing just 3.6 ypc, but they faced just 3 teams in the top 10 and 2 of those 3 games were against the Chiefs who obviously were coming from behind throwing it more. If Baltimore can get up early in this game and continue to lean on the run Denver could have big problems. Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice are as good as any combo in this league averaging 4.9 ypc in their last 3 games and Caldwell seems to remember how to run the ball rushing it around 56% of the time over their last three games. If Denver gets a 2 TD lead then we can forget about it. The last thing the Ravens want is to let Joe Fluco, yes I said Fluco throwing the ball with their offensive line protecting him against the #2 sack % team in the league in Denver.

3.3* NBA POD

Notre Dame +10 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love this match up and though I don't believe either team was as good as the media has glorified them this will be a better match up than last year. I went over extensively each team's resume to take a look at their statistical rankings and who they faced. Notre Dame faced 10 bowl teams along the way while Alabama faced 7 bowl teams. Neither one of those teams opponents had winning records in bowl games if you can believe it. The weak teams on Alabama's schedule are far weaker than the ones on Notre Dames schedule as Alabama has even played a FCS school while Notre Dame has not. At the end of the day here is how I see this game.

Both teams are in tops in rushing play % and both are successful at doing so with Notre Dame ranking 34th in rushing play% and 21st in rushing play %. They did it against an average run defense (ypc) of 59.9 and faced 5 top 50 run defenses along the way averaging 4.31 ypc in those games. Alabama's rushing offense is a bit better and they run the ball more ranking 16th with a 61% run play call. They were 9th in ypc average against an average run defense (ypc) of 58 (similar to Notre Dame). They faced 7 top 50 run defenses and averaged 5.10 ypc although I think many could argue based on how Georgia played down the stretch that they were not a top 50 run defense but in fact they ranked 50th (they played two FCS foes), so I believe the numbers are a bit skewed, but even so both teams are good at running the ball. Notre Dame is very under rated they have a QB that's mobile and can run along with 3 other options at tailback including Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick (who has SEC speed). George Atkinson is also in the mix and might be the fastest player on the field tonight (you'll see him on kick off returns).

On the flip side rushing defense numbers were similar. Alabama showed some holes down the stretch allowing 3.5 ypc, but they went up against 5 top 50 programs and held them to 2.97 ypc while Notre Dame who was ranked 12th overall in ypc allowed went up against 4 top 50's and held them to 3.59 ypc. I believe both teams can have success running the ball here. Notre Dame is not used to being run on ranking 2nd in the league in opponent rushing %, and I think Alabama won't do what they did last year by throwing the ball instead of passing. I believe Nick Saban thinks he can wear down Notre Dame because of this fact, but to me that won't result in Alabama covering the spread because Notre Dame is still very under rated with their front led by Tuit, Nix, and Lewis-Moore. This was a team that was #1 in red zone defense by a far margin only allowing 24% TD's that's compared to Alabama who allowed 51.85%. So now onto the passing games.

Everett Golson got better each week while all AJ McCarron did was be #2 in the nation in QB rating. However, Golson faced better pass defenses. I did the math and McCarron went up against opposing pass defenses ranked 76th in completion % defense, and 72nd in opposing QB rating on average. While Golson went up against 61st and 40th respectively. Golson does not have gaudy numbers but he brings a different element to the game being a mobile passer. Alabama was 9th in sack % this year but they went up against an average 72nd ranked QB protection unit. Notre Dame is actually 35th in pass protection and Golson was only sacked 1% over his last 3 games. Alabama was 92nd in sack % and that's why they run the ball so much. McCarron is great when the running game is working, but when it's not and he's forced to pass the Bama offensive line is not as good as advertised in protecting him. That's probably why he struggled against the 3 good defenses on his schedule. Vs. LSU, A&M, and Georgia. McCarron did not play crazy good only completing 58% of his passes, 636 yards and 3 TD while throwing 3 INT. If we take a look at Golson against good pass defense teams and he faced plenty of elite pass defense teams in Michigan State, Stanford, and Oklahoma (29th in pass defense), He did not make mistakes 2 TD and 0 INT. I won't be shocked to see him play better than McCarron in that department and that's the way Notre Dame has won all year. Red Zone defense and make the other QB to make a mistake. It will be a major challenge for them, but I think 10 points is far far too many.

[b]Arkansas State -3+100 4** POD[/b]
Kent State will come into this game with their head coach despite him taking a job to coach Purdue. He has been doing two jobs this time, but he said his main goal was to win a bowl game and a MAC championship. He came up close but failed against Northern Illinois and now I think he falls short here against Arkansas State, who may just be the best team they have faced all year long. Arkansas State just has more balance offensively with Ryan Aplin at QB and David Oku at RB compared with Kent State which is a run first team led by dynamic Dri Archer.

Kent States defense is led and reliant on creating mistakes. They have forced 38 on the year and they have 33 sacks, but the problem in this game is Ryan Aplin, the best QB that Kent State has faced all year does not get sacked ranking 19th in fewest sack % and he does not turn the ball over completing 67.7% of his throws and only 4 interceptions while throwing for 23 TDs. Arkansas States defense really played well down the stretch in the red zone holding opponents to 30% TD
s over their last 4 while their offense was scoring at over an 80% clip. Their offense is more balanced than Kent State as I mentioned ranking 14th in third down conversion percentage while Kent State was 86th and only coverted 32% over their last 3 games. Spence Keith is known for turning the ball over for Kent State and I dont think this team can win this game unless they win the turnover battle in a big way, but I dont think it will happen tonight.

4.5** pod

3.3* pod

Bengals +4.5

[b]Pittsburgh +3.5 4.4** ncaaf play of the day[/b]
Well look here maybe the Big East is not nearly as bad as everyone thought. Or maybe Florida was just not motivated to play in the Sugar Bowl. I doubt it, and now the Big East 4-0 vs. the SEC and I think they get another favorable match up here with Pitt having an excellent defense playing inspired football down the stretch. While they lost to Louisville, Syracuse, and Cinci this year they beat a good Rutgers team in dominant fashion. They were also minutes away from beating Notre Dame on their own field but ended up losing by 3. Tino Sunseri has come a long way under Paul Chryst who was the Wisconsin OC for years. It seems Sunseri fixed his issues of throwing interceptions he has just 2 on the season with 19 TDs and has over 3,000 yards thats better than Mississippi's Bo Wallace who threw 15 interceptions and for less yards. I also think despite what the stats say that Pitt has the better running back in Ray Graham. Dont believe me, Graham rushed for 172 yards on 24 carries on Notre Dames elite run defense. Though Miss faced several tough opponents in the SEC they struggled vs. teams that could pass the ball. I think Pitt shows a lot here with Chryst staying on to coach despite all the rumors hes not going anywhere and this team will finally have their head coach for a bowl game unlike the last two years.

Texas AM -3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
This is a rematch of a game last year in Oklahoma where Oklahoma won being +3 in turnover margin. Texas AM has actually lost 8 of their last 9 vs. Oklahoma but I'm confident they'll reverse that here today against Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. First off Oklahoma is going ot have a very hard time being 100th in the league allowing over 5 yards per carry going up against A&M who has 4 rushing threats that all average 4.7 ypc or greater including the Heisman winner Johny Manziel.

Their offensive line averages 25lbs more than Oklahoma's weak defensive line. A&M is also 4th in plays per game and like to push the tempo and that's just going to be bad news for an Oklahoma front that lacks any depth on the line and there is a reason their top 4 tacklers are all defensive backs.

On the flip side many could argue that Oklahoma is just as good at passing the ball and A&M ranking 83rd in pass yards allowed are just as bad as Oklahoma is at stopping the run, but I differ. Oklahoma hardly played any other teams that could get to the QB which is a huge reason they are 6th in fewest sack %. A&M is 35th at getting to the QB and Oklahoma faced only two teams better which was Notre Dame who beat them on their own field and Kansas State who also beat them on their own field. In fact Kansas State seems like a spitting image of what Texas A&M is and likes to do but only better and more capable of putting up points. A&M is also 39th in opposing QB rating and once again Oklahoma only faced two better in Notre Dame in TCU which their offense strugled against averaging 16.5pts which won't get it done in this game.

Memphis +2 3.3* pod

Kansas St +8.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Many thought this was going to be the national championship. This game is an interesting because these are two teams that love to run the ball first with Oregon ranking 9th running it 64.25% of the time and Kansas State 12th at 62.8%. Both these teams are also ranked 1 and 2 in points per play with Kansas State being #1. Kansas State is used to playing teams that push the pace facing 6 other teams in the top 25 in points per play while Oregon only played one other which gives you some perspective on the offenses these two defenses have faced.

Kansas State likes to run their offense and hold onto the ball ranking 120th while Oregon is 6th in plays per game, but as mentioned both are good at running the ball, but who is better at stopping it? Kansas State is the answer they are ranked 27th allowing 3.7 ypc, but take out the Baylor game and they would allow just 3.25ypc compared to Oregon who is ranked 63rd allowing 4.2 ypc. Kansas State faced an average opponent ranked 50th in ypc rushing while Oregon faced much weaker competition averaging 65th. Despite that he allowed 200+ 4 times and allowed over 4 ypc 7 times. While Kansas State against better rushing offenses allowed 200+ 1 time and 4.0ypc 2 times.

I think we have already proven that the Big 12 was stronger than the Pac 12 this year as they are 2-0 SU and ATS in head to head match ups this season. Overall the Big 12 is already 5-2 while the Pac 12 is just 2-4. Chip Kelly is just 1-2 in bowl games in his career. Defenses seemed to be able to prepare for this style of offense.

Wisconsin +7 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD
This may not be a truly sexy match up as many anticipated before the year started, but this game is going to be one of the better played games in my opinion. For Stanford it is business as usual the team only lost twice in a controversial OT game against Notre Dame and in a weird Thursday night game in Washington. For Wisconsin they started the year slow fired some coaches rebounded before dominating in the Big Ten Championship drubbing Nebraska by the score of 70-31 to come into the Rose Bowl with a ton of momentum. Wisconsin however is without their head coach who moved on, but taking over is former Wisconsin head coach Barry Alvarez. Alvarez is trying to become the first coach to win a Rose Bowl in three different decades, but here is a look at each team's scheme.

Wisconsin's Scheme:
This is pretty obvious that Wisconsin wants to run the ball. They were 6th in the nation in rushing play % with a 65.9%. They'll go up against a Stanford defense that prides itself on stopping the run and was ranked 3rd overall in rushing yards allowed. Wisconsin however only faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 25 in rushing offenses. They went 3-1 in those games with none of them being decided by more than a TD. Wisconsin could have several wrinkles in this game that could throw Stanford off guard. James White may spell the QB and run out of the wild cat and when they do decide to throw the ball it will be to Jared Abbrederis who is the best receiver on the field and could take over this game if both run defenses hold up. However, Stanford despite giving up a lot of yardage to QB's has been great at limiting them to just yards and not TD's allowing just 114 QB rating and 12 TD's and 14 interceptions. Now let's take a look at Stanford's scheme to see if they are a mortal lock to win this game.

Stanford's Scheme:
Much like the Badgers the Cardinals love to run the ball ranking 35th in rushing play %. Over the last 3 games though they ran even more and that resulted in a Pac 12 Championship. They to went through some growing pains at the QB position before settling on Kevin Hogan who is only a freshmen, but played lights out converting 73% of his throws. Stanford however will have its hands full going against a top 15 defense that can stop the run and the pass. Wisconsin really only struggled stopping the run against Nebraska. Take that game out and this unit was ranked 10th nationally allowing just 3.10 ypc. Stanford runs a pro style offense and may have to turn to Hogan to win this game which he's fully capable of doing as we saw in the Pac 12 Championship.

At the end of the day neither team has been known for getting blown out. Their defenses are just too strong, but I think what we saw from UCLA in the Pac 12 Championship game is a sign of things to come. Wisconsin plays physical running ball and Monte Ball will have a nice game. On the outside Wisconsin has more of a passing threat with Abbrederis and a better pass defense while their rushing offense has been better too. LB Mike Taylor and Chris Borland will dominate on defense for Wisconsin.

3.3* NCAAB POD

Iowa State -1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Okay, so these teams met in week 1 and Tulsa lost..Normally I'd lean toward the revenge factor, but these teams are totally different at this point in the season. I think Tulsa is content winning their conference championship. Meanwhile you have Paul Rhoads coaching this team as a blue collar bunch. They play a gritty style of football that is hard not to root for and back.

The difference in this game is going to be Iowa State's defense despite missing Jake Knott they will be able to concentrate on the run as Tulsa is a one dimensional offense. Iowa State faced many offenses this season that could throw and pass the ball. Iowa State turned to a freshman QB late in the season that provided a spark in Sam Richardson. Richardson did face some weak pass defenses, but I think his ability to avoid the rush will allow him to win this game along with his talented groups of running backs.

Lions +3 -105 5.25* NFL POD/ Lions +145 2* play;
The Lions are desperate for some sort of positive energy to close out the season and beating the Bears and knocking them out of the playoffs would be just that thing. Honestly the Bears don't deserve to be road favorites at this point. They have lost 5 of 7 games and even though the Lions have been unable to beat this team and have lost 7 straight themselves they are a team that can beat any team in the NFL. The last match up they dominated against the Bears sacking Cutler 5 times and holding him to 150 yards passing. The difference was Cutler made no mistakes and the Lions turned the ball over 4 times. In the end the game was still there for the Lions despite their poor play as they lost 13-7. That all happened in Chicago and now this game being in Detroit with Matt Forte banged up. I just see the Lions being able to get over the hump with something to look forward to next year.

3.3* TOP PLAY ON S. UTAH +3

Texas +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Before I get into all the stats I have some key stats about Texas and Oregon State and who they played. Oregon State faced 4 top 50 rushing offenses and 3 top 50 passing offenses on the year and overall that led to a very good defensive statistical season, and on paper it appears that they have the better defense than Texas however I don't believe that's the case. Texas had to face many balanced offenses in Big 12 play as they faced off against 6 top 25 passing teams and 8 top 50 rushing offenses. Now they get to face an offense that's ranked 99th in ypc rushing average and obviously can pass the ball with some of the better teams, but Texas now gets to sick their 31st sack % group against Oregon State.

Texas sack unit is even under rated really they faced a ton of QB's and OL's that get rid of the ball quick and protect their QB. I think Oregon State is making a major mistake going with Cody Vaz at QB who is not nearly as accurate as Sean Mannion completing less than 60% of his throws. He has not turned the ball over and that seems to be the main reason they are making the change. Oregon State's defense meanwhile will have to face a balanced offense that leads with a power run game. Texas is ranked 11th in QB rating and 38th in rushing ypc average. Oregon State did not play any teams with the exception of Oregon that had a balanced offense and could hurt them with both the run and the pass and to me that will be the difference in this game. There is a reason Texas has converted over 50% of their third downs and over 70% of their red zone trips into TD's. Oregon on the other hand only 34% of their third downs and their red zone defense is just not quite as good as Texas and Oregon State went against worst offenses as we mentioned earlier.

At the end of the day some times bowl games come down to who is motivated and this game will be played in Texas and Texas is facing a 13th ranked team in Oregon State so they should be up for this game. Also we just saw Baylor another Big 12 team embarrass UCLA last night and that came was played on the West Coast.

Rutgers +3 -120 buy 1/2 4.2* POD; Rutgers +8.5/U48 teaser 3.3* play
One thing is for sure both of these teams are bummed to be playing in this game. However, I can't back the Hokies in this game at all not only is Rutgers 5-0 in Bowl Games, but they are better at the things that have hurt Virginia Tech all year which I'll get to in a second.

First of all Virginia Tech is a team that has leaned on the run in recent years and this year has been no different they are ranked 58th with a 53% rushing play call. However, Tech was 82nd averaging just 3.9 ypc, and Rutgers is ranked 9th allowing 3ypc and 2.5 over their last 3. This will quickly turn the game over to the hands of Logan Thomas and that's not a good thing at least this season. Thomas is 85th in the nation in pass efficiency offense and has completed only 52.6% of his throw while throwing for 17 TD and 14 interceptions. Rutgers pass defense meanwhile has forced 29 turnovers and 16 interceptions while only allowing 12 TD's.

Rutgers is better at forcing the turnovers and Virginia Tech has already lost to two Big East teams this year. Virginia Tech better look out for DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene who help fuel a team that had 85 TFL and 41 QB hurries. Virginia Tech's offensive line is leaky and allowed 40 QB hurries on Thomas this year. Rutgers 41 QB hurries is more than Arizona State, South Carolina and Boise State combined who are all in the top 5 in sack % defense.

Although Rutgers defense is impressive Virginia Tech's is too ranking ahead of Rutgers in third down defense and also pretty stout against the run and pass, but at some point VT will have to stack the box and Rutgers has been capable of protecting their QB only allowed 8 sacks all year. That will give them one on coverage and Gary Nova can make the throws deep to his big talented receivers. Brandon Coleman, Tim Wright , and Mark Harrisson are all 6-3+ in height and Virginia Tech has had the tendency to give up big plays all year long.

Another x factor has to be special teams in this match up. Virginia Tech has been prone to poor punting this year and Rutgers has a tendency to block kicks over the years look for that to be a huge advantage in this game.

UCLA -3 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love UCLA here, Baylor really came on strong at the end of the year while UCLA over achieved, but UCLA will play a defense that can not stop a nose bleed. Baylor was dead last allowing 58% conversions on third down and Johnathan Franklin should have a field day. Baylor's defense has gotten by forcing turnovers and taking them back for TD's they were 1-4 on the road and with this game being in San Diego I'm guessing their will be far many more UCLA fans in attendance.

Baylor actually has run the ball a ton this year and UCLA was very good at stopping the run all year. Baylor is known more for their passing game, but Baylor runs the ball 53% of the time which you wouldn't think. At some point they will be forced to throw in this game and UCLA will bring it's 6th ranked pass rush something Baylor is not used to seeing. Baylor on the season saw an average 79th sack rush so facing UCLA is going to be something that will tilt the turnovers in UCLA's favor. UCLA actually forced more turnovers than Baylor this year and will have more balance on offense.

4.4* NBA POD

Arizona 3.3* POD

4.5* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY

Giants -120 5.5* NFL POD
Giants are getting back some key players this week in Ahmad Bradshaw, Prince Amukmara and Kenny Phillips which should help them get a must win game here today in Baltimore. Baltimore continues to struggle on both sides of the ball and have already backed into the playoffs. I expect the Giants to be able to win this game and it starts up front where the Ravens have not been the same old Ravens ranking 19th in sack %. Eli Manning and the Giants are #1 as Manning is only sacked 3.17% of his drop backs. That will be huge for Manning today if he can keep up that pace and that should allow him to move the ball all day long as he hooks up with his talented receiving corps. The Giants should be able to continue to convert third downs where they are ranked 11th on the year, but have converted 50% over their last 3. The Giants did actually move the ball against the Falcons but the TO's uncharacteristically hurt them. Baltimore meanwhile is 23rd in the league in converting third downs and have a 28% mark over their last 3.

Giants need this game and they have more talent in my opinion because the Ravens are just banged up all over the place. This is typical Giant fashion needing 2 wins to get into the playoffs and I think they will get them. They are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games and the line is just low enough to still take them in this spot.

Lions +4 5.5* NFL POD The Falcons just came off a huge win over the Giants, the defending Super Bowl Champions so naturally this line will be inflated just a tad. The fact that the Lions came off a bad loss to the Cardinals makes this a huge play for me. Teams that have beat the SB champs are just 18-30 ATS the following week and over the last 10 years teams with 11 wins as road favorites are 9-29 ATS. I expect the Lions to play with a chip on their shoulder and being home on the holidays is a huge advantage in this spot.

Jazz +9 3.3* NBA POD
I think we are getting tremendous value on the Jazz in this spot and I feel they match up well against the red hot Heat. However, the Heat are in a tough spot in their own as they look ahead to Christmas when they play the Thunder. I don't think the Heat believe it takes their full attention to dismiss the Jazz, but they will get the Jazz best. Jazz also have a couple extra days rest compared to the Heat and the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record so most of their ATS dominance has come against weak opponents.

3.3* NCAAB POD

Washington +5.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love the Huskies here today against Boise State. Washington may have lacked an identity on offense all year, but they have more talent on offense than Boise State as junior Keith Price should lead his team to a victory. Price will connect early and often with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins who in my opinion is the best TE in the nation. Price also has another option in Kasen Williams who is another sophomore with an NFL future. Both had 6 TD's this year as Price threw a total of 18, but the bigger key is whether or not Washington can run the ball. Bishop Sankey really came on strong at the end of the year with 15 TD's in all and should be able to help the Huskies control the clock vs Boise State.

4.4* NCAAB POD

Ball State +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Ball St +260 1* bonus
Keith Wenning is going to play tonight and that

San Diego State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This is an interesting match up between two teams that used to meet regularly in the Mountain West. BYU has controlled the match up over the years with their last meeting being decided by 3 points 2 years ago, but San Diego State has several advantages in this game and the 3.5 points is tremendous value. For one the Aztecs will be playing in their home town and in the same stadium (Qualcom) that they play in the regular season. That

Twolves +4 -115 4.6* NBA POD
This is a huge game for Minnesota and for the Thunder this is just another game. I actually think the Twolves match up extremely well vs. the Thunder despite going 0-4 last year both of their home games were decided by 1 and 4 points and one went to OT. On the road they lost by 8, and 9 (which was in OT). The Thunder are in an interesting spot here playing on 0 days rest and their starters combined for 160+ minutes last night and they'll face the Heat on Christmas next which is drawing tons of hype. Minnesota just got their buts whooped by the Heat but are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss by 10+. Look for Minnesota to come away with a win here.

3.3* NBA POD

GIANTS +1 5.5* NFL PLAY OF THE DAY

Toledo +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
I think we have tremendous value here in the line of 10.5 points. I think there is a misconception about the MAC and I also feel Toledo had a stronger strength of schedule with their top three being against Arizona, Cincinnati, and Northern Illinois while Utah State faced Wisconsin, BYU, and LA Tech. Note they played Wisconsin when Wisconsin looked like a shell of who they were down the stretch. Both teams are in the top 30 in my RPI and Toledo had the stronger strength of schedule by 38 percentage points based on their opponent win% and their opp-opp win%.

Utah State's defense was excellent this year, but they never faced a balanced offense until they met LA Tech who put 41 points up on them. Aside from LA Tech you could argue Toledo will be the best offense this defense has faced all season. In fact Utah State faced only two top 50 offenses all year and now they'll have to faced a third. The other two put up 41 and 27 points respectfully. Toledo is led by a balanced attack with an excellent rushing attack with David Fluellen and QB Terrance Owens returning to the line up.

Toledo also has significant advantages in time of possession and turnover margin. Utah State is ranked 71st in takeaways and Toledo is ranked 27th. Toledo played one of its best games vs. a team similar to Utah State in Northern Illinois that's off to a bowl game. Toledo had Northern Illinois on the ropes before falling in the 4th quarter and I think we could see a similar effort from this team today. With time of possession comes the key of third down. Utah State is 22nd in third down defense, but a closer look we realize they faced an average opponent ranked 77th in converting third downs. Now they'll face Toledo's balance offense ranked 39th. Utah State's offense was ranked 36th, but they struggled vs. some of the better third down defenses and Toledo's defense which gives up chunks of yardage is better than many believe. They were ranked 57th in third down defense against an average opponent ranking 59th in converting third downs and they were among the best in the red zone keeping opponents out of the end zone more than 50% of the time on red zone attempts and even held opponents on the road to a 39% TD percentage.

Eagles +4.5 4.4* NFL POD
The Eagles seem like they are on the right track after two games starting Nick Foles. Andy Reid did a great job taking away any kind of controversy by naming Foles the starter for the rest of the year which bodes well for Foles confidence. The biggest thing in this match up to me is Foles ability to move in the pocket and make accurate passes with the Bengals pass rush coming at him. Bengals are #1 in sack %, but Foles proved last year he can do that. Despite getting sacked 6 times he looked poised and got better as the game went on.

The Eagles defense also showed up and held Josh Freeman to 178 yards and 14-34. The Bengals I feel are quite over rated and the public likes them because of the big names like AJ Green and they continue to be backed, but I can not trust this team on the road. They really have not beaten anyone and they are very bad on third downs on both sides of the ball which is a key stat especially for winning on the road. They are 20th in third down defense and 25th in third down offense. Bengals really struggle on the back end despite having the #1 sack % team as they are 15th in QB rating and they have struggled against bad teams on the road against the run allowing 4.5 ypc. The Eagles have proven of late that they can win with the run and the passing game and I expect them to be right in this game.

MTSU +2 3.3* NCAAB POD
This is an interesting match up and one that either team could win, but I'm taking the points even if Belmont is home here. MTSU won last year in shocking fashion, but this team is the real deal and they match up very well with Belmont who relies on their senior guards and three point attempts. They are 3rd in the nation in three points made, but 41% of their shots are from beyond the arch which is 29th in the country. It just so happens they face a team that is backed by strong defense from the guards. They are long and physical and have held opponents to 29.7% from three. My other favorite stat is rebound % and MTSU should have another significant advantage here as they are ranked 41st while Belmont is ranked 267th. Belmont also has a bigger game up ahead with Kansas on Saturday they could be peaking ahead to.

Bobcats +8.5 4.4* NBA POD; Bobcats +360 0.6* play
Charlotte has been in these games at home and if it weren't for a slow start the other night we would have won on our POD with them facing the Warriors. I'm still not sold on this Clippers team right now especially on the road. They are also coming off a huge win last night in Chicago in a late start. The game was on ESPN and started at 9:30pm ET and now they travel on 0 days rest where they play their worst defense. This is also their 4th game in 5 days and they did win last night. The Clippers rely heavily on the road on their ability to force turnovers. Chicago while they are a dominant defense is 25th in turnovers per game and had 17 last game that really cost them here. The Bobcats are 8th in the league in fewest turnovers. I just feel 8.5 points is far too many for a team on the road playing on 0 days rest and 4th game in 5 days. I don't see them taking the Bobcats seriously and the Bobcats are still trying to win a game against a meaningful opponent and this would be a good one and a good situation. I would not be shocked if they do pull the outright victory and I'll lay 0.6** on it.

Knicks -3 3.3* NBA POD I love the Knicks in this spot with a chance to rebound after losing in OT to the Nets the first time in their own building. I look for the Knicks to rebound here with a strong effort and an easy win. Not only may the Nets be without Brook Lopez, but the Knicks will have Jason Kidd in this game someone they didn't have last time. Kidd makes this team flow and is a winner. I see the Knicks continuing to stay hot while the Nets continue to struggle.

4.4* ncaab play of the day

Texans +6 4.4* NFL POD
The line has moved like crazy today, but I think there is tremendous value still on the Texans and I will thank the line movements. These two teams are even and both teams have not played the most challenging schedules. I've seen both teams face my team the NY Jets and neither one looked more impressive. The Patriots have gotten very lucky in many games because they are scoring points off turnovers. The Texans just don't turn the ball over and in fact are #3 in turnover margin. I think the Texans will play their best game of the season tonight and they certainly have the ingredients to upset the Patriots.

What are those ingredients? Pass rush, and a balanced offensive attack. Let me attack the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots are extremely vulnerable against the pass. They're ranked 23rd in sack % and 29th vs. the pass. However, teams that can run the ball like the Texans can have had the most success scoring points because the Patriots have trouble stopping them in the red zone. The Bills scored 31, 28 and have a great running game, the Seahawks scored 24, and the Ravens scored 31. Texans arguably have the best offense that the Patriots have faced all year long. The Broncos were really not clicking just yet when they visited the Pats in week 5.

Next, the pass rush. It's not ironic that the Patriots have struggled vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in pass rush, Arizona, Miami, Seattle, and even Denver. It's also no coincidence that New England is 22nd in pass play %. I really don't think this team trusts its pass protection and they've done so well running the ball they are smart enough to know they don't need to air it out 40+ times a game. Well the Texans are good at stopping the run and are ranked 5th in sack % led by J.J. Watt who could single handily ruin Tom Brady's night. Texans are also #1 in third down defense (ironically Arizona and Miami are in the top 5). New England won by just 7 at Miami ( a team that lacks an offense like the Texans) and lost at home to Arizona (a team which we have seen is the worst in the league). The Patriots are 29th in third down defense and worse at home.

Red Zone is another key aspect in this game. Who can bend and not break and who can punch it in? Well it's obvious both teams can punch it in they are both averaging 69% TD's in the red zone over their last 3 games and are both in the top 5. Houston however has been far more dominant on the defensive end, 4th overall and they only allow 36% in the red zone while the Patriots are 23rd and allow 68% at home. I really look for this game to be close throughout and I give the Texans despite some injuries to have a real shot at winning the game. Brady will struggle at times especially without Gronkowski still.

Bobcats +5 4.4* NBA POD; Bobcats +2.5 1H 2.2* play
Bobcats played well against a few really good teams at home of late losing by 2 to the Knicks, 6 to Portland, and 6 to the Sixers and then they were destroyed by the Spurs by 30. Teams often come back strong in their next game after a big time blow out and they get the Warriors who are riding high winning 3 straight and getting a lot of love. The Warriors think they can skip this game mentality and look ahead to the Miami Heat who they have on Wednesday. I think the Bobcats could seriously steal this game if not play really well in the first half.

Saints +5 5.5* NFL POD; Saints +195 1* bonus
Not only are the Saints still alive, but they are drawing motivation from the Giants playoff run a year ago. This Saints team absolutely believes they are still alive in the playoff hunt and they've had 4 extra days to prepare for this game. It's just a tough spot for the Giants here today who are starting to trend downward. Drew Brees in his last 3 games vs. the Giants 60% pass completions 864 yards 9 TD and 0 INT's. The Saints have played well vs. the Giants and I don't see any signs of that changing because the Giants have not shown they can be a dominant defense or team in home games.

They have played worse at home on defense than on the road. They're 27th in run defense overall allowing 4.6 ypc but at home they allow 5.0 yards per carry. For the Saints that's a great sign because they have relied on their deep stable of running backs far more than in years past. Brees on the other hand will go up against a Giants defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at home allowing a 96.4 and 106 in their last 3 games combined. The Saints should have their way with the Giants in the red zone specifically because they can run and pass efficiently. The Saints have the #1 red zone offense at 70% TD's, the Giants are 22nd in the red zone 48.98% in the red zone. The Saints defense is also tough in the red zone and that's how they have escaped for wins in the past. That mentality will help them cover this odd spread as I don't see them losing by more than 4 if they lose at all. Either way Brees will bounce back from a couple of bad games to lead this team. The extra couple days allowed them to find things they can exploit against the Giants. Saints are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss while the Giants are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Rutgers +1.5 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Despite having one of their best players back in Momo Jones, Iona is not the same. They even are moving Momo to the point and I think that's going to take some time playing against some of the better teams this year. Jones had a great year last year playing off Scott Machado and this will be a bit different. Iona also has 9 new players this year and lost a ton of talent from last year's squad. Meanwhile Rutgers returns 4 starters and got a ton better when Wally Judge decided to transfer from Kansas State. Judge gives this Rutgers team balance as it solidifies their front court to go along side Miller and Johnson. This team should dominate on the boards tonight and they have capable perimeter players in Carter/Mack/Seagears. I think we are getting line value here as both of these teams have played St Peters and Rutgers did not look very good, but it was their first game of the year. Rutgers has an extra 4 days rest so if Iona decides to push it Rutgers should be able to keep up.

Bulls +2.5 3.3* NBA POD
Rebounding and defense. That's how the Bulls are winning right now. They are ranked 2nd in rebounding percentage to the Knicks 27th rank and should have the advantage on the boards. The Knicks come off a great game without Carmello Anthony against the Heat. Really the Heat play down to the competition, and the when they knew Carmello was not going to play you could almost see them not take them as seriously. Meanwhile the Knicks went on to hit 18 three's, but going against the Bulls that won't happens as the Bulls have only allowed 27% shooting from the perimeter and are #2 overall in three point defense. Bulls will be motivated to have this game and I think they will win it.

Army +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* NCAAF POD; Army +240 1* play
Even the Army coach admits that this game means more than going to a bowl game. So while I don't think Navy is looking ahead to their bowl game I do believe they are not as focused as Army. Up for grabs is the commander in chief trophy which goes to the service academy that wins the round robin between Army/Navy/Air Force. Both teams already beat Air Force so this game has more than sentimental value.

This game is bigger for Army who has lost 10 straight times to Navy, but has been much closer in recent years because of Trent Steelman who is playing in his last game as the Army QB. He'll go up against Navy's freshmen QB. Army also has a veteran leader in Nate Combs playing in his last game as the leader of the defense. Although it's a unit that just got shredded in their last game by Temple's Montel Harris one has to believe this group was already preparing for Navy knowing they weren't going bowling. I think that only gives us more value in this point spread.

There were many games Army could have won that would have put them in the bowl picture if you look through the season. Really if they won some of those games this could have been more like a 3 point spread in my opinion so I think we are getting a few points here and great value. Let's take a look at some of the games. Army played well at home all season with the exception of their last game. They even nearly beat BCS buster Northern Illinois, but fell 40-41. There was a loss to Kent State sprinkled in but they beat Boston College, and Air Force.

This game is pretty simple in terms of who is going to win or whether or not it's going to be a close game. 3rd down conversions and turnovers. Army has had issues turning the ball over all year which has cost them big time, but at home they are +0.7 turnover margin per game while Navy is -0.5 on the road. Navy also is 103rd in forcing turnovers and 92nd in fumble recovery %. Army not used to playing defenses that don't force turnovers. 3rd down conversion percentages have been pretty equal only Army is better offensively and defensively. Defensively Navy is 117th and allowing over 50% on the road while Army is 101st, but have allowed just 41% over their last 3. Offensively Navy is 59th while Army is 25th and converting 50% over their last 3. I think the experience of Army's QB Steelman and the preparation of Army's experience and will to win this game and have something to celebrate will be the difference.

iowa St +3.5 (4.4* POD) Iowa State has a lot of veterans led by McGee and Clyborn their two leading scorers. Meanwhile Iowa has played well thus far but has got beaten by the "good teams." Iowa is also very very young and I don't see a huge advantage playing at home against an instate rival. I look for Iowa State to win this game out right tonight with their veteran leadership.

Manhattan -3.5 2.2* bonus

76ers +2 3.3* nba pod
I see that we have a ton of line value here with the Sixers. Both teams played the same team in their last game (Twolves). Both teams played them at home while the Celtics controlled the game and the Sixers got blown out. Because of that Vegas knows they can get away from setting the line a point or so higher. Not to mention Rajon Rondo coming back which I feel is a bit over rated and the oddsmakers are giving him and the Celtics too much credit. The Sixers on the other hand will have an extra day of rest and have also played the Celtics tough at home going 6-1 ATS over their last 7. Sixers also have played well following double digit losses at home 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that has happened, but at the end of the day I feel the Sixers will rebound and there is tremendous line value given the circumstances. I expect Boston to seek revenge tomorrow night when the two teams meet in Boston.

Raiders +10.5 4.4* NFL POD These teams know each other well since they play 2 times a year, and being double digit favorites on the road is just too much for even the Broncos who will be traveling on a short week. The Raiders have been tough in games at home this season or at least their offense has been more capable and getting McFadden back this week will definitely help make them more balanced against the Broncos. The Broncos on the other hand have the Ravens next week which is a more crucial game to their season success despite this being a division game. Broncos beat the Ravens next week and they could be on their way to a bye in the playoffs. Now Peyton Manning led teams are not usually victims of looking ahead, but the Raiders want to prove that they are not as bad as their record indicates. I also don't think the Broncos are as good as this line. They've played a lot of bad teams lately and have been covering the spread 6 out of their last 9 games becoming a big public backed team. Meanwhile the Raiders are a team that have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5, but remain a capable team to beat anyone at home. I think we are getting tons of value in this spot.

3.3** play

4.4** top play

3.3*

Chargers +2 5.5* NFL POD
I get it the Bengals are surging right now winners of 3 straight and the Chargers are losers of 6 of 7, so it's no wonder that they are home dogs on Sunday to the Bengals, but this is a desperate Chargers team right now. The Bengals really have not played well in San Diego. It's a long trip and they have lost 5 of 6 since 1992. This is clearly their most challenging road game on the season as their road schedule has been pretty easy.

On the other side the Chargers have had a brutal schedule with no easy wins. They already played the Broncos twice, Baltimore, New Orleans, Atlanta, and on the road against an under rated Tampa team. I think they finally get a game in their own building with against a team playing with too much confidence. Andy Dalton has tossed 9 TD and 0 INT's in his last three games, but a closer look at those games and he faced some bad defenses. I'm not just talking about against the pass which was 32nd, 30th, and 13th, but also against the run meaning Benjarvis Green-Ellis has helped with balanced as they have faced run defenses ranked 24th, 28th, and 22nd. Now on the road against the Chargers will be a different challenge. Although the Chargers are ranked 22nd against the pass they have faced some really good QB's already, and their run defense is ranked 6th against the run. That means the Chargers can at least take one aspect of the Bengals offense away making them one dimensional. The Bengals rushing offense is not that good to begin with so I look for the Chargers to really concentrate on stopping the pass.

On the other side of the ball Phillip Rivers and the Chargers have been solid at times, but the biggest issue has been the turnovers. Well the Bengals defense is 29th in takeaways on the road and have allowed a 117 QB rating over the last three games alone. They also struggle against the run allowing 4.9 ypc in their last 3 and 4.6 ypc on the road this year. They're ranked 23rd against the run and that's good news for the Chargers who should have success and balance offensively. Chargers will have more success on third downs where they are ranked 13th overall and convert 41.7% at home while the Bengals are 27th and are only converting 28.5% on the road. When they face defense that can shut down their run they find it very difficult to convert because they go into a lot of 3rd and longs.