Cappers Sports Picks

Notre Dame +6 5.5* NCAAF POD
9 of the last 12 match ups between these two teams have been decided by a TD or less and I think this game will be no different. First of all the Big Ten's rep is taking major hits as they went 0-3 against the PAC 12 last week and has not really come up with many signature wins. Notre Dame is under rated here despite their lackluster performance against an under rated Purdue team. That was a tough game for Notre Dame after playing in Dublin the week before and so far this team looks better than a year ago as they are avoiding the big mistakes and forcing turnovers.

Michigan State on the other hand will have their hands full in my opinion as the Irish have a balanced attack and this will be the first balanced attack Michigan State has faced as the Irish also get a fresh Cierre Wood back. Michigan State can run the ball too and they are getting a lot of credit behind Leveon Bell - but Bell had just 29 yards a year ago on 23 carries and Michigan State was dominated despite having Kirk Cousins and other veteran players. Now they'll start QB Andrew Maxwell against an even better defense. Maxwell struggled against a Boise State group that had 9 new starters. Notre Dame is getting a pass rush and is led by one of the best LB in the country that will shut down this rushing game and put the game in the hands of Andrew Maxwell who threw 3 interceptions at home against Boise State. Notre Dame has 6 takeaways and 7 sacks through the first 2 games and have a rising star in sophomore Stephon Tuitt.

Michigan State's defense is supposed to be great with the elite running backs, but Notre Dame scored 31 points on them in back to back years and the DL has registered just 1 sack and 7 tackles for loss. Notre Dame's first team offense is among the best in the country in converting on third down's with 18-26. Golson at QB is a wild card as he's proving he can throw the ball. Maxwell showed he can do it against Central Mich, but the Chippewas do not have a good pass defense. Meanwhile Notre Dame has a pass rush and their secondary is more athletic than in years past and will create turnovers on Saturday. As long as Notre Dame does not have a disaster day turning the ball over I think they'll win this game.

Yankees -103 4* MLB POD
The Yankees are getting good value here even though Ivan Nova comes off the disable list he seems to be 100% and over his last 4 starts vs. the Rays he's got a 1.88 ERA while the Yankees are #1 in OPS vs. RHP and during day games the Rays are 26th in OPS vs. RHP and 20th during day games. The Yankees will face a familiar face in James Shields who is in hte top 25 in HR allowed this year and he's allowed 19 against the Yankees hitters in his career. He's also on extra rest following a complete game. In both of his road starts this year at Yankee Stadium he came off 5 days rest and it didn't help as he allowed 8 ER in 11 innings. Shields is red hot right now and you would think the Rays would -130 or so with Shields on the mound and Nova coming off the disable list, but his splits do not favor the match up with the Yankees. As left handed hitters dominate with 17 HR this year and he's also given up 13 HR on the road in less innings than what he's done at home. Well the Yankees are at home and will have a ton of lefties in the line up. Shields is also in the top 20 in HR/FB ratio with a 13.2% ratio... The Yankees are a fly ball hitting team and this is the match up they want and I think they'll win.

UNLV +8.5 3.3* PLAY
UNLV got crushed in this game on the road a year ago and now they are home and only under dogs by 8.5 points against a Mike Leach offense?? Looks to good to be true for Wash State backers right? Well I disagree and I'll tell you why - UNLV's defense looks like it has drastically improved thus far holding opponents to 20% conversions on third down. They held Minnesota to 13 points in regulation and it's not like Washington State is putting up big numbers yet despite having the talents of WR Marquess Wilson. The QB situation gets worse with Jeff Tuel likely not playing. They have a capable back up but there is a reason why Leach did not start him to begin with. It's evident Leach is not very happy about the depth at QB. When asked how his QB did at half time in the opener against BYU he replied "average" on national television. His no BS is not usually not a morale boost for a team that should have its work cut out for them in Vegas tonight.

UNLV's offense on the other side will look to play ball control and they should be able to do a good job of it as Washington State is allowing nearly 60% conversions on third down and they haven't played anyone special. UNLV will run the ball with junior Tim Cornett who has 100+ yards rushing in 4 of his last 5 games including both games this year. Washington STate is allowing 4.6 ypc and they struggle to get to the QB with a 2.56% sack percentage last year. UNLV should stay in this game with special teams, ground and pound, and good defense on third down or bend but not break. Washington State is only averaging 2.2 ypc on the ground and did not score a point in the 2nd half a week ago. A short week won't help as they prepare for a trip to Vegas. UNLV has the advantage on special teams and thus far in the TO margin department as Washington STate is already -4 on the year and they allowed 4 TD's last year on kick offs so expect UNLV to have an advantage there. UNLV is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 Friday's and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as a dog 3.5-10 points.

Packers -4 buy 1/2 -120 5** NFL POD
There is a huge misconception here that the Bears offense is going to be elite now just because of Brandon Marshall. Lets slow down they played the Colts at home last week and now they go on the road into a challenging environment against one of the best teams coming off a loss and hungry for a win. The Bears offense on the road last year only eclipsed 21 points twice in 8 road games last year. They will have to do that against the Packers to cover this spread and I don't see dramatic improvement for them to do it despite putting up 41 points at home.. Don't forget Cutlers first 5 drop backs against the Colts resulted in 3 sacks, interception, and an incomplete pass. Of course then things got easy, but against the Packers on the road he's going to have an even tougher time.

The Packers actually have better offensive numbers and they played a much better defense in the 49ers. Packers were able to get by last year and go 15-1 with the worst defense in the league, but dont' forget their first 6 picks were on defense. This group will improve throughout the season and they didn't play terribly against the 49ers holding them to 22% conversions on third down. I mention that because the Bears only converted 33% against the Colts and were ranked 27th on third down last year. I don't see where this team got so much better that that's going to change dramatically. On the flip side the Packers were 3rd last year 48.5% on third down and Aaron Rodgers was effective again vs. the leagues best defense converting 46% on third down. I think playing a contending team in the Bears allowed the Packers to be better prepared this week. As that game went on Rodgers became more and more comfortable. Look for Jermichael Finley to have a huge game as he caught 4 of Rodgers 8 TD passes against the Bears a year ago. I'm not fooled by last week so be confident laying the points tonight.

Phillies -140 4* MLB POD
The Phillies are already playing like it's October and I like their chances again here tonight. They have won 15 of 19 and they face Lucas Harrell who has pitched well at home, but the way the Phillies are hitting and playing he's going to have a tough time. First of all the Phillies will start it with 4 straight LH batters and that's going to be a challenge for RHP Lucas Harrell. Harrell also relies on the ground ball as he's third in the league in GB%. Actually the two guys ahead of him are Jake Westbrook and Trevor Cahill who have similar stats across the board. The Phillies are 4-1 in those 5 games they have faced the top 3 in GB%. Westbrook/Cahill have combined for a 5.10 ERA and they were even worse when the Phillies were the visiting team. I expect the Phillies to continue to pitch well out of the bullpen and for the Astros to continue being one of the leagues worst teams.

Yankees -150 5.5* MLB POD Max play tonight on the Yankees as they have a major advantage in their line up going up against Aaron Cook. The Yankees will put 7 left handed hitters in the line up and all have had success against Aaron Cook as they are a combined 20-47 for a .425 average and 3 HR. Cook in 2 career starts has allowed more than 2 runners on base per inning vs. the Yankees and has a 10.24 ERA. Cook also has struggled at home with a 5.15 ERA, but he's struggled vs. lefties who have a .315 average and an .823 OPS. The Red Sox did not look dead last night with a walk off win, but I think they will have a nice hang over today as the Yankees will dominate behind David Phelps who is striking out more than 9 guys per 9 and he's got great stats against the Red Sox key players - Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Ross are a combined 2-15. Phelps is set up to pitch well as he is on 5 days rest and should be able to hand the game over to an effective bullpen.

Cardinals -124 3* LNF Bonus
This team has been struggling, but this is the game they come out of it. They should have runners on base all game long with Edinson Volquez's inability to throw strikes. They have good numbers in 79 AB they have a 1.006 OPS with a .436 OBP vs. Volquez. Meanwhile we get great value because of Wainwright's struggles too, but against the Padres he's dominated in 64 AB the line up has .462 OPS against and Wainwright in 4 career starts posts a 3-1 record and a 0.58 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP. The Padres have been scoring runs, but they haven't faced a dominating RHP in a while. Actually since Matt Cain back on August 17th when they lost 1-10. This team struggles more vs. RHP than lefties especially at home so expect the Cardinals to dominate tonight!

Twins -129 4.5* MLB POD
Both of these lines are coming down to our advantage and I'm thinking we have great value.

The Twins will look to win 4 straight and continue their dominance over the Royals who are 7-20 in their last 27 @ Twins. Minnesota is also 41-19 in the last 60 meetings and will start their ace Scott Diamond who is extremely hard to score on because he never walks guys and gets a ton of ground balls. Diamond does not strike a lot of guys out but a 1.45 BB/9 and 56% ground ball ratio will keep you from giving up a lot of runs. There are a few guys that the Royals have faced like him. When you look at Tommy Milone he's up there in terms of BB/9 and Milone combined for 15 IP giving up just 2 ER to the Royals. More notably is Rick Porcello who is a righty and is closer to Diamond's stats. Porcello pitched 13 IP gave up 5 ER. But Diamond is a lefty and the Royals were not nearly as good vs. lefties this year ranking 20th in OPS and are only scoring 3.95 runs per 9 on the road while the Twins are scoring 5.40 runs per 9 at home vs. LHP.

They get Will Smith who if you ask me shouldn't be pitching. IN two starts vs. the Twins he's struggled giving up 17 hits and 10 ER along with 4BB's in 10.2 IP for an 8.44 ERA. The Twins have an OPS over 1.000 against Smith who hasn't started since September 1st. Smith carries a 4.97 ERA on the road with a 1.47 WHIP. He is nothing special looking at his stats with less than 6 K/9, over 3BB/9 AND A 43.7% GB rate with 13% HR/FB. The closest match is Jason Vargas and Ubaldo Jimenez who both struggled in Minnesota this year each gave up more than 5 ER. The Twins have been giving us good value for a long time now and I'll continue to back them especially with Diamond on the mound. It also doesn't hurt that he's getting 7.5 runs of support during his starts this year, the best in the majors!

Raiders pk 4.4* NFL POD; 3TEAM 10PT TEASER - Raiders +10, Ravens +3, OAK/SD O37 2.2*
First of all the oddsmakers are always really sharp on the lines on Mondays which is why you'll see me lay a bunch of teasers out there much like I did last year. I like the Ravens in the spot at home and the over in the OAK/SD game to go along with our POD on the Raiders.

I love the Raiders here this is a team that's still in a much better spot than the Chargers are. The Chargers could not score a TD on the road in the preseason and Phillip Rivers did not look any better than his 20 interceptions last year as he had 1 TD and 4 interceptions this pre season. Pre season means nothing but you would have like to have seen something more from Rivers. Oakland meanwhile is coming off a 7-4 season before dropping 4 of 5 to finish the season including their week 17 home game against the Chargers that cost them the division.

The Raiders had won 3 straight over the Chargers before that game and I think they'll win this game. Mainly because Carson Palmer is now familiar with his receivers and the offense and Darren McFadden looks like he's 100%. At least the Raiders have a balanced offense. The Chargers are going to have to pass a lot in this game which could mean big issues and turnovers considering they'll likely be without LT Jared Gaither and two of their other starting OL's are banged up, but probable. Ryan Mathews is also doubtful and their RB depth is suspect. I think the Chargers will put up points because of the passing but it will lead to the Raiders tiring out the Chargers defense. The Chargers were last in the league in 3rd down defense a year ago and 20th vs. the run. Look for Darren McFadden to have a huge game as the Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. the AFC West.

Reds -166 4* MLB POD
Not a ton of value out there, but its hard to ignore the Reds success vs. LHP over the last few years. They are 22-8 in their last 30 overall vs. LH starter and their offense hasn't faced one in a while so this could be what they need to break out of their little slump. 2-4 hitters are a combined 36-106 off Wandy Rodriguez and the Pirates look dead after getting swept by the Cubs over the weekend. Not a lot of value in the line, but I believe Matt Latos success and the Reds bullpen should carry them through with a relatively easy win. Latos has held Pittsburgh hitters to a .478 OPS in 80 AB.

Tampa Bucs +3 -120 5.5* POD
buy the point... But I do not think you'll need it. All this hype on Cam Newton and now he's a sophomore and he's been around the league once. Ask Josh Freeman how his sophomore campaign went? Either way everyone is in love with this kid for good reason, but he's getting too much credit because the Panthers have far more issues than the Bucs who look to rebound after losing 10 games in a row to close out the year last year. Their run defense will be improved with rookie LB Lavonte David and strong safety Mark Baron, but don't underestimate Greg Schiano's pedigree for the defense side of the ball as I believe they will improve big time against the run and this is the game they'll showcase that today. It's not like Carolina's defense is any better as they were 26th in RZ TD%, and 26th in 3rd down defense. While the Bucs weren't much better they added some talent on this side of the ball and the offense will be better making the defense better.

On offense the Bucs made big changes bringing in G Carl Nicks to help pass protect they drafted Doug Martin who can be a star in this league and adds another dimension to the offense that Lagarette Blount just didn't. Don't forget Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark giving Josh Freeman the tools and no excuses but to bounce back. Freeman had 25 TD and 6 interceptions in his first year and it was obvious last year he thought the NFL was just that easy, but a 16/22interception campaign motivated him this off season and I think we will see more of the old Josh Freeman who is just as good if not better than Cam Newton. Newton may not have a sophomore slump like he did last year but the NFL is about to get more difficult for him. I don't see him having as much as success and I see the Bucs being better today.

4.5* MLB POD

Georgia -2 4.4* NCAAF POD
Welcome to the SEC Missouri and DT Sheldon Richardson thank you for running your mouth. This is not old man football this is the best brand of football responsible for the last 6 national championships type of football.

With all of that said Missouri is about to step up to the big leagues and I have many doubts they are capable against one of the favorites in the SEC in Georgia. For one Missouri will have issues considering they'll start 4 new offensive linemen on the interior and while two tackles return they have a tendency to get beat on inside moves and it just so happens that Georgia is loaded along their front 7, 3-4 defensive scheme. That's bad news for Missouri's star offensive player James Franklin who is more of a runner than he is a passer. Franklin loves to throw off his back foot and is prone to making mistakes and he is the majority of their offense especially after the loss of Egnew, Kemp and Josey as well as 4 offensive linemen. The offense was 11th on 3rd down conversions in the Big 12 last year and I don't see it improving despite the size on the outside that this team has especially in the SEC. A year ago they were converting less than 40% of their third down attempts. That's partially due to them running the ball or passing to the RB 67% of the time on 1st down. That normally created a 2nd and 7 or longer where they ran again 63% of the time. That's not going to get them anywhere against Georgia's front 7. To me this game will quickly turn into a defensive game and that will quite the crowd quickly and give Georgia a major advantage.

Georgia returns their star QB in Aaron Murray after he threw 35 TD's a year ago and did not miss a beat without WR A.J. Green. Although Missouri has the talent to beat SEC teams I just don't think this will be their day as Georgia will have the field position in their favor all day. Led by receiver Tavarres King I believe the group of speedy receivers will be able to take advantage of a suspect secondary.

2* BONUS

Cardinals -132 4.5* MLB POD
Yovani Gallardo to me is an over rated pitcher and the Brewers are 1-10 when he pitches and they play the Cardinals. They are also 6-20 in his last 26 starts as an under dog which has not happened much this year that's why he's having a good year. That's because he has just 4 starts vs. a team with an OPS in the top 10 vs. RHP. 2 of them were against the Cardinals in which he got rocked twice allowing 14 ER in 5.2 IP. Take his other 24 starts and the average opponent's OPS vs. RHP has a rank of 19.7 and the 4 starts vs. the Reds brings that down a bit. Collectively the Cardinals have a .978 OPS against Gallardo who will also be one 4 days rest 1 day less than Kyle Lohse who has dominated the Brewers this year. Beltran, Holliday, Freese and Molina who are all in the line up are 10-14 with 5 BB's this year against Gallardo and all of them have hit a home run.

Lohse is the main reason the Cardinals are where they are and I don't see it changing he's on 5 days rest where he has a 2.40 ERA this year pitching on 5 days rest or more in 7 home starts all but 1 was a quality start. The Brewers have a road win % of less than .400 and the Cardinals are 40-14 in their last 54 home games when they play a bad road team. Lohse will also have the ability to face 7 of 9 righties who he has owned this year as they have posted just a .598 OPS against him. He won't have to up against Aramis Ramirez who won't be in the line up which is another plus. Overall Lohse has a 2.25 ERA on the year and the Brewers were slowed down by Josh Johnson yesterday to end their hot streak. I still think we are getting a nice number here considering how much better the Cardinals are. As they are scoring more than 1.14 runs per 9 at home than the Brewers on the road and we talked about the starting pitching advantage, but the Cardinals also enjoy a better bullpen. Brewers have a 5.06 bullpen ERA over their last 10 games combined.

Utah St +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* NCAAF POD
Utah vs. Utah State , both teams will be going to a bowl game this year if you ask me, but this game means everything to Utah State as the Aggies would love to take down their in state rival and bigger brother Utah. This is a team that nearly shocked Auburn on the road early last year losing 42-38 so they have plenty of ability to take down Utah tonight as Gary Anderson is one of the better unknown head coaches around. Anderson's defense should pick up where they left off as #1 in the WAC last year despite losing some players they are tackling machines led by a strong secondary that will keep this game close. IT also helps that Anderson was the DC at Utah for many years and is very familiar with Utah.

Utah State offensively will be solid behind returner at QB Chuckie Keeton and they are led by an offensive line that was solid last year and returns their star C in Tyler Larsen who should be able to neutralize Utah's star defensive line men in Lotolelei. Utah State had an efficient passing game with 64% completions and 23 TD while throwing just 6 interceptions and the offensive linemen know how to block and zone block well. That will make things easier for the runners in Joe Hill and Kerwyn Williams. Utah on the other hand in their opener did struggle a little and missed several big plays that once again won't be there tonight. On one possession it took them 21 plays to score on an FCS school. This is a team that was 106th in 3rd down conversions 33.95% last year while Utah State was 9th at 48.86% and Utah State's defense was even better holding opponents to 35% conversions on third down. I think they can have the same type of success especially since Utah has to replace two all conference tackles. Utah has plenty of talent at OL and size, but this is the perfect time for the Aggies to pull an upset.

Pittsburgh +5 3.3* play
Much of the public is hammering away at Cincinnati especially considering Pittsburgh lost to an FCS foe last week at Youngstown State. For one Youngstown caught a break as the Panthers had no depth on defense especially along the defensive line as Paul Chryst sent a message by suspending 6 players a week ago. This is a completely different Pittsburgh team than a year ago and in a good way as they get back to their roots of running and setting up the pass. Cinci has their own issues as they lost so many stars on offense and defense and have 60 1st and 2nd year players on the roster. The quick turn around for Pitt is a good thing in this case after losing to an FCS foe and having revenge for last years meeting with Cinci. Pitt also got a warm up against a spread offense that should only benefit them tonight. Paul Chryst was the OC for Wisconsin the last 6 years so he was a perfect fit for a Pitt team that perennially would run the ball and they will be running behind a more balanced offense and an offensive line that

NYG/DAL Over 45 4.4* NFL POD; Cowboys +10/Over39 2.2* teaser
I lean towards the Cowboys in this game for one reason, a balanced attack and an improved secondary with Carr/Claiborne. However, it's the over I'm thinking will be more likely with both QB's due to throw the ball 30+ times. In both games last year the two QB's eclipsed 70+ throws combined. That's mainly due to their inabilities to run and that should be true for tonight as well. For the Giants David Wilson is a nice upgrade, but the Cowboys were able to hold a lot of opponents under 4 yards per carry last year as they were 7th vs. the run. I see Eli opening things up and throwing the ball 40+ times like he did so often late last year. Watch out for his new TE, and ex Cowboy Bennett to have a big game.

Cowboys offense is a little sketchier with the inability to protect Romo, but they still scored 34 points against the Giants when they were home. They should have a better protection scheme in place to avoid being sacked 6 times and Tony Romo is still one of the better QB's in terms of avoiding sacks and moving in the pocket and finding open receivers. Romo has more of a balanced running game and they proved they can run the ball against the Giants with a healthy Demarco Murray they should be able to protect Romo much more than they did in the last meeting. If he does not have Jason Witten it won't be a huge loss he had just 3 receptions in the Cowboys 34-37 loss anyway. Romo will get Miles Austin and Dez Bryant involved early in a depleted Giants secondary while the running game keeps the Giants ferocious defensive line honest.

Orioles +106 4** MLB POD
The Orioles are just locked in right now and a good portion of their line up has good stats against Brandon Morrow who gets the nod for the Jays on 4 days rest after 102 pitches his last time out. Morrow in his last 3 vs. the Orioles at home has given up 11 ER in just 16.2 IP and he's had plenty of starts against them in his career where he didn't get to the 7th inning. This is just his third start cominb back from the DL and I don't know how much length the Jays will get out of him before they turn it over to a bullpen that has an ERA 2.2 higher at home than the Orioles have on the road.

The Orioles starter Miguel Gonzalez is pitching beautifully and has a 2.51 ERA away and a 0.87 ERA in 10+ innings on turf this year. The Jays haven't really seen him so it will be a major challenge for a team that has a .581 OPS over the last 7 days. Morrow has the capability of being dominant but the Orioles bats are just too hot right now and they have plenty of LH hitters to get good looks.

Virginia Tech/ Georgia Tech U47.5 Georgia Tech brings it's triple option to Lane Stadium in what is a very very important game in the ACC Coastal division. Virginia Tech returns nearly all of their starters on defense and for the first time Bud Foster's group will have ample time preparing for the triple option and he has the players to shut it down. The Hokies return their entire front 7 led by James Gayle on the front 4 and All-American Bruce Taylor at linebacker. The front 7 are ridiculously fast off the ball and Georgia Tech does not have that WR that can keep a defense honest this year with Stephen Hill off playing in the NFL. I'm sure the Yellow Jackets will develop one, but in the first game of the season in a very important game I expect both teams to come out conservative especially the Hokies on offense. Virginia Tech has Logan Thomas at QB and the guy is a beast with NFL measurables, but there are a lot of questions at RB, along the offensive line and at WR. Expect a lot of run and tuck it from Thomas and a low scoring game because of that. The Hokies are also Under the total in 15 of their last 21 games.

White Sox -156 4* MLB POD I love the Sox here as they return off an awful road trip. They have been great at home winning 21 of their last 26 games and are 22-7 in their last 29 meetings with the Twins. This will be a must win type of series and they needed to play a team they have had a lot of success against. The White Sox will face Deduno for hte first time and he's just a different pitcher on the road with a 4.68 ERA and a .292 opponents average. He has major control issues with 5.74 BB/9 so the White Sox are going to get plenty of chances for good pitches to hit. Deduno only walked 1 guy in his last two starts, as he is being more aggressive as he put it, but being aggressive vs. an aggressive team like the White Sox will give him major issues. I have a feeling he will be off as this is just his 4th road start on only 4 days rest. He's got a 6.60 ERA in the previous 3 starts and the White Sox are scoring 5.65 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home while the Twins are only scoring 3.34 vs. LHP on the road. The White Sox have also had a lot of success vs. RH starters who walk a lot of guys. They beat Jiminez twice, Yu Darvish and took 2 of 3 from Justin Masterson forcing the trio of high walk per 9 guys to post a 6.68 ERA.

Tigers -160 4* MLB POD
For the rest of the season I will fade the young lefties of the White Sox in Chris Sale and Carlos Quintana it's just too much to ask of them to pitch this much and this is another situation where we have a major advantage with Verlander going for the Tigers who is 11-1 with a 2.32 ERA in his last 12 starts vs. the White Sox. He also does not have to face the big bat of Adam Dunn who will be sitting out and he has dominated tonight's clean up hitter Paul Konerko who is just 8-52 against him. Sale has already started to struggle particularly in his road starts allowing 18 runs over his last 4 starts on the road over 24 innings pitched. Look for him to struggle yet again tonight as he did last time in Detroit giving up 5 ER in 7 innings. Verlander is more experienced to pitch on 4 days rest and he loves pitching in his home ball park where he has a 1.75 ERA this year.

Auburn +3 -105 5* NCAAF POD
This game will be on a neutral field in Atlanta and the under rated Auburn team in my opinion will win it. All this Tigers team needs to do for motivation is check out the youtube clip of Dabo Swinney fired up after they beat Auburn at home 38-24 and that was after they trailed 21-7. Look for Auburn to have a lot of revenge on their mind in a game that won't be anything like last year and I'll tell you why.

Before I get into Auburn note that they were not terrible last year going 8-5 losing 4 on the road to very good teams Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia and then they lost one home game against Alabama the National Champion. Meanwhile Clemson ended their 2011 campaign losing 3 of 4 including a blowout in their bowl game.

Last year it was all about Tajh Boyd as he was 30-42 for 386 yards 4TD 0 INT as he was 14-18 on third down conversions. It's hard to think Clemson will be able to duplicate that considering their offensive line is experience a complete overhaul with 3 newbies as well they have lost 3 starters on the defensive line. To make matters worse Sammy Watkins who had 10 rec 155 yards in that game is suspended. There is just no way Boyd can repeat the success he had last year with 3 new starters on the offensive line and Auburn has a pair of ends that can be dominating in Corey Lemonier and Dee Ford to go along with 7 other starters that return on the defense.

Offensively Auburn will start Kiehl Frazier, but they should be able to run in this game considering how vulnerable Clemson is on the defensive line. They ran for 237 yards last year on 6.2 ypc look for that to happen again, but with new offensive coordinator Scott Loeffer there will clearly be more balance and that will benefit maybe one of the best TE in the nation in PHillip Lutzenkirchen. I think this line is derived off the public's perception of Auburn and Clemson. Last year Clemson lost on the road at South Carolina 13-34 while Auburn actually won on the road. That one game was a bad game and I'm sure Auburn has been motivated all summer long to take revenge on Clemson who is now 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on neutral fields while Auburn is 5-1 ATS.

NC STATE +3 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD
16 starters return from the Wolfback team that won 6 of their final 8 games including 3 in a row against Louisville, Clemson, and Maryland to close the year out. This is the year Tom O'Brien has been building for and there is real potential to get to 10 starters. They have 4 starters returning on an offensive line and a NFL prospect in 6-6 QB Mike Glennon who completed 62.5% of his passes for 3,054 yards, 31 TD's and 12 interceptions last year. He'll face off against Tennessee team that is also returning 4 starters and features a 6-6 QB in Tyler Bray, but Glennon has proved himself more and my confidence is with him and the offense that surrounds him as they have more dpeth at running back with James Washington and Mustafa Greene now returning from an injury. More importantly TN brings in a new coaching staff on defense that is making some changes that could hurt them early in the season.

On the other side of the ball TN breaks in a new starter at the most important position LT in a sophomore who will make his first start. IT definitely hurts them that they also lost Da'Rick Rogers at WR due to a suspension and now Justin Hunter who is returning from an ACL injury goes up against an All-American CB David Amerson who had 13 interceptions himself last year. NC State may be more vulnerable up front, but TN has yet to proven they can run the ball on anyone averaging just 90 yards a game last year. It's likely Bray and the offense will look to pass, but awaiting them will be Amerson and the rest of the ball hawking secondary that surrounds him which are 3 seniors! Tennesse is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the ACC while NC State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Tennessee should be improved but this is just a challenging game on a neutral field in the season opener that will make them look bad.

Vanderbilt +7 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD
Vanderbilt lost 21-3 on the road last year against South Carolina, but a lot has changed since. So that you too can take Vandy seriously I'll give you some highlights from last year - they nearly beat Georgia and Arkansas at home last year losing by a combined 8 points. They were ranked 18th in yards allowed and they return 8 starters on offense with plenty of depth behind them and 7 starters on defense with an experienced secondary. IN that game they lost 21-3 last year they were on the road, Jordan Rodgers was not yet the starter and the offensive line was not healthy. For instance their best OL Wesley Johnson is back at his best position LT because of the health and depth of the line.

Speaking of Vanderbilts offense. They are a run first unit with Rodgers being called a dual threat QB as he had 420 yards rushing last year but the real talent is senior Zac Stacy who had 1,193 yards last year and 5.9 ypc and he's backed up by SEC freshmen of the year Warren Newman. Now South Carolina has a great defensive line when it comes to rushing the QB as they have two 1st round NFL picks in Clowney and Taylor at the end position but they were 45th vs. the run a year ago. Their 2nd rank pass defense will be vulnerable too with 3 starters gone in the secondary and they are also without their best corner Akeem Auguste who is out with a leg. This should do one of two things. Calm the agressiveness that DC Lorenzo Ward likes to come with or lead to big plays against an inexperienced secondary.

If you don't believe it's possible, Vanderbilt was actually #1 in the SEC in plays over 20 yards a year ago. So enough about Vandy's offense what about Marcus Lattimore shouldn't he be able to run all over a Vanderbilt team? He had just 77 yards last year in the game and I'm still not sold on how much he trusts his leg. Either way Vanderbilt can sell out against the run because they have an experienced secondary. I also do not think they'll have to worry about the passing game of South Carolina and this is a plus because it will also slow the game down. Connor Shaw has talent, but he also has a very young inexperienced offensive line that replaces 3 starters and he also lost Alshon Jeffrey to throw to. The receivers have plenty of speed but it's going to take a bit to get that chemistry back.

Not only will Vanderbilt be sold out and pumped for the first game but they hold a considerable advantage on special teams. They are one of the best in the nation in defending kickoffs and punts and I feel they'll dominate field position making it very difficult for a South Carolina team that was ranked 95th in passing last year and will be looking to do a lot of damage on the ground. It's hard to grind out drives in those situations.

Jays -150 4.5* MLB POD Carlos Villanueva won

Rangers -122 4.5* MLB POD
I like the Rangers in this spot although they've struggled against scheduled starter James Shields during the regular season in his last two outings (1 post season) he went just 11 innings gave up 19 hits and 11 ER in two starts in Texas. Shields has been pitching great lately, but he faces a Rangers team that's red hot again and is already scoring over 6 runs per 9 vs. RHP , 6.82 over their last 10 due to Adrian Beltre's .520 average and 6 HR over the last 6 games. Rangers have shown they are a streaky team and right now they are hot and are 48-15 in their last 63 following a game where they scored 5 runs or more. They are also 54-23 in their last 77 home games vs. RH starter and Shields is on extra rest which is a bad thing.

Shields has just 2 quality starts on extra rest over 9 total starts. In those other 7 starts he posts a 7.61 ERA. He's coming into this start on extra rest and I'm confident that should throw him off a bit against the red hot Rangers. On the flip side Yu Darvis comes back completely fresh. He's been really streaky, but the Rays have never seen him and I think he matches up well against them.

White Sox -154 5* MLB POD
The White Sox will go for the sweep and they have their stars our there to go up against the veteran Millwood and to me it's a mismatch. Milwood has allowed a .393 average in 112 AB to the White Sox line up. Dunn is 9-22 with 6 HR. Wise is 3-5, Youkilis is 7-15, Konerko is 11-30, Rios is 9-24, it just doesn't stop and Millwood has struggled with a 7.00 ERA over his last 7 road starts. The White Sox are ranked 8th in OPS during day games while the Mariners are 30th with a .608 OPS during day games when they post a 18-23 record, The Sox are 25-17 and are in the middle of a pennant race.

They'll turn to Gavin Floyd who is on 5 days rest with some revenge on the Mariners who got 5 ER off his last home start, but in his previous 5 starts vs. the Mariners who are 30th in the league VS. RHP in OPS they hit 4 HR off him. That's a rare thing for the Mariners and I don't think it gets repeated especially since he's regularly dominated this team that collectively has just 9 hits in 59 AB for a .152 average. Floyd also has 8 quality starts over 12 total starts on 5 days rest. In those 8 starts he posts a 0.99 ERA so I expect him to dominate today.

Orioles -106 4* MLB POD
This game will come down to the bullpens with Brandon Morrow coming off the DL for his first start in over a month he's going to be limited to 85 pitches. The Orioles have 18 HR in 10 games against the Jays this year and there is bound to be more today as they have rocked Morrow at time with 8 HR in just 127 career AB. Hardy,Jones, and Markakis are a combined 16-47 and Chris Davis who is just 2-9 with a HR also has 3 BB's for .417 OBP and he's been red hot with a .350 average and 5 HR over the last 7 days. The Jays meanwhile have been in a hitting slump and even though they got Jose Bautista back last night I think it could be a while. Baltimore's pen should pick up for spot starter Steve Johnson who is too much of an unknown for Toronto to really get a grasp on him the way they've been struggling. It's not like they are hitting what they are seeing and now they have to face a pitcher they've never faced before on the road where they struggle anyway. To put things in perspective the Blue Jays are dead last with a .603 OPS this month. They are 20th on the season in OPS on the road.

Red Sox -172 5* MLB POD; RL +110 2* BONUS
This is the perfect opportunity for the Red Sox to end their losing streak with David Ortiz back in the line up as well as Bruce Chen coming to town who has a 11.45 ERA over his last three starts at Fenway. The Red Sox are hot with the bats too scoring 7.06 runs per 9 at home this year vs. LHP and 6.51 in their last 10. While the Royals are only scoring 3.84 runs per 9 on the road and are hitting .243 scoring 1.88 runs per 9 in their last 10 vs. LHP.

John Lester takes the mound looking for another quality start and I think he's finally turned it around. He's 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA vs. the Royals in his career and he's on extra rest where he's performed well of late pitching to a 3.58 ERA over his last 5 starts on 5 days rest. The Royals line up has a .216 average with 0 HR (13-60) against him tonight while the Red Sox have been great against Chen with a .310 average and 4 HR (18-58). Red Sox are 24-10 in their last 34 home meetings with the Royals and the Royals are 22-56 in their last 78 road games vs. a LH starter. This is a big game for the Sox if they want to get back into the playoff talks this is the turning point with Ortiz coming back.

Rays -135 5* MLB POD
We have been struggling a bit lately with some close losses, but we are confident that we will be turning this around before the football season and it starts with the Rays on Thursday night.

Not only are the Rays just red hot right now, but they get an A's team that is flying across the country to play Thursday without a day off. They are also sending a pitcher to the mound in Tyson Ross who has major control issues with 4.33 BB/9. It just so happens the Rays are #1 right now in BB's and in 22 AB they have a 1.247 OPS against him. On the flip side Alex Cobb makes the start and he already has a 7 inning 1 ER performance vs. the A's who also like to get on base via the walk, but Cobb is only walking 2.52 guys per 9. Cobb has a better chance of pitching a quality game for his team as he has a 3.64 xFIP. I like the fact that he gets a lot of ground balls and he's supported by the Rays bullpen which has an ERA under 1 over their last 10 games and 2.18 at home on the year. The Rays as a team are hitting much better as they are 9th in the month of August with a .751 OPS. Oakland is 2-5 in their last 7 road games and 0-7 with Ross on the mound vs. a winning team.

4.5* MLB POD

[b]Yankees -108 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
I love the Yankees in this spot nearly all of their hitters have had major success against Gavin Floyd who posts a 4.48 ERA at home and has a WHIP over 1.30 on the year. The Yankees are 28-12 vs. starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30 in their last 40. Also in 209 career AB, Yankee hitters have 13 HR and a .905 OPS. Floyd has struggled vs. LH batters and the Yankees are full of them. lefties have a .925 OPS against Floyd compared with a .639 vs. righties. ON the flip side Freddy Garcia continues to pitch under the radar and has held the White Sox hitters in check - Youkilis, Dunn, and AJ P are a combined 7-53. IF he can pitch around Konerko he'll be in line for another quality start.

Giants -129 5* MLB POD
The Giants have not skipped a beat since Cabrera was suspended scoring 18 runs in their last 2 games and that's just too much for the Padres to keep up with especially going up against Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong is on 5 days rest in this match up and he's had a quality start in all 9 starts this year when he's on extra rest where he has posted a 2.07 ERA and went 7 innings in 7 of those starts. He also has a 2.51 ERA during day starts and he pitched a 7 inning 1 ER game vs. the Padres already this year. He'll face them in San Diego where the Padres are hitting just .217 and scoring 3.05 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Over their last 10 they are even worst with a .180 average and a 2.39 runs per 9.

Ont he flip side the Giants bats are working right now and on the road they are scoring 5.17 runs per 9 vs. LHP and 6.62 overall in their last 10. They'll face Clayton Richard who they have hit hard all year long as Richard posts a 7.64 ERA in 3 starts with a 1.75 WHIP. Richard faces a Giants team who in 161 AB against him post a .917 OPS. Richard has been good at home, but not good enough and over the last three years he posts an ERA over 5 during day starts. He'll be on just 4 days rest and not as fresh as Vogelsong going up against a hot line up I'll take my chances with the road team.

Angels -138 2.5* play
I believe the Angels are good enough to avoid a 3 game sweep with Zach Greinke on the mound. After all the Rays are 25th in OPS vs. RHP this year and 24th during day games. The Angels have not been shy of scoring runs it's been there bullpen that's screwing up, but Greinke has the talent to go the distance and over his career he's dominated the Rays as in 172 AB the Rays own a .583 OPS. Greinke looked like himself in his last start and that's a sign of things to come. Matt Moore on the other hand has been a different pitcher on 4 days rest posting a 5.12 ERA this year. This is just his 3rd road start on 4 days rest as they've been very careful with the lefty. In his previous 2 road starts he posts a 9.00 ERA in just 11 IP.

Also the Angels have eaten up pitchers with control issues and are giving up a lot of fly balls. Moore stats are in the top 10 in both 4.13 BB/9 and 38.9 %GB. The closest pitcher to those stats are Ubaldo Jiminez who they have scored 11 ER in just 11.2 IP. Overall they have faced 7 pitchers like this and those starters post a 8.41 ERA. I think the Rays are satisfied going home with a 3-1 trip to LA and I think that's what we'll get.

Twins +119 4.5* MLB POD I love the Twins in this spot, first of all they are scoring just 2.81 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home and are 19-41 in their last 60 home games vs. LH starters. Scott Diamond is really up and coming and he's #1 in BB/9. The Mariners are 3-10 vs. LHP in the top 25 in BB/9 as those starters have posted a 2.92 ERA against them. The better the control the better they pitched and Diamond is one of the best at controlling his pitches. He's also on 5 days rest in this one facing a Mariners team that for the year is 28th vs. LHP in OPS and is 30th with a .615 OPS this August. Meanwhile Jason Vargas who has been great at home goes up against the Twins who are 9th with a .766 OPS vs. LHP and are 13th with a .742 in August. The Twins bullpen has a 2.88 ERA over their last 10 games while the Mariners come in at 4.61. I like this match up and the value we get here at +119.

Athletics -122 4.5* MLB POD The A's return home which should be a positive as they are 18-5 in their last 23 when facing a RH starter which they face on Friday night in Zach McCallister. They are also 26-12 at home in their last 38 meetings with the Indians who are in for a treat Friday night with Tommy Milone fresh. Milone took a start off and should be fresh for his home start where he posts a 2.13 ERA. He's a unique young pitcher who is in the top 10 in control (BB/9) among starting pitchers. The Indians are #1 in the league in BB/9 and that's how they win games, but when they face lefties who they struggle against already 25th in OPS on the year and they have control well they are just flat out not very good. They are a combined 0-7 against lefties in the top 25 in BB/9 while those starters have posted a 2.28 ERA. Milone is 10th in BB/9 behind only Scott Diamond who has thrown 23 IP and has allowed only 2 ER in three wins against the Indians this year. Cleveland has also lost 12 of 13 road games and those 12 losses have come on a 4.9 runs per 9 average. Zach McCallister makest he start for the Indians but it's his first on the West coast. If this game is close late the A's will have another major advantage in their bullpen.

[b]Angels +107 4* MLB POD[/b]
I like this match up a lot. David Price has not pitched nearly well on the road posting a .320 average and many Angels hitters have some good numbers off him and over his last 6 starts he posts a 4.37 ERA. The Angels are 3rd with a .833 OPS in August and have back to back victories scoring 17 runs and I think that will continue tomorrow! Dan Haren should be fresh pitching just 63 pitches in his last start. He also ended July with a 6 IP 1 ER performance at home vs. the Rays and over his previous 4 starts posts a 2.60 ERA vs. the Rays. The Angels have struggled in the bullpen but have been better at home with a 2.60 on the season compared to the Rays 3.98 on the road.

[b]Yankees -115 4.5* MLB POD[/b]
Freddy Garcia has held the Rangers hitter to a .495 OPS in 135 AB while Feldman has struggled mightily with the Yankees having a combined OPS over .900. Teixera, Cano, Granderson, Ibanez, and Jeter alone are 24-60 with multiple HR's. Granderson has 3 alone in 9 AB and it won't get easy for Feldman as the Yankees are red hot lately vs. RHP they have a .842 OPS in August and are the #1 team vs. RHP in terms of OPS. Feldman has 6.50 ERA on the road this year and he will make just his 4th start on 4 days rest posting a 4.40 ERA in the other 3. Over the last 3 years combined he has a 5.59 ERA on the road.

Cardinals -104 4.5* MLB POD I love the Cardinals in this spot not only do they have good numbers against Ian Kennedy they have eaten up pitchers like him. IN that regards I mean fly ball pitchers. Which is what Ian Kennedy is as he produces just 35% ground balls. The Cardinals have played in 5 games against baseballs lowest ground ball producers. Every single one of them they have been able to score runs including a game against Ian Kennedy where they scored 6 ER off him in 7 innings. Overall in those 5 combined games the starting pitchers have a 9.72 ERA. That includes two starts from Matt Cain who is nearly a mirror image of Kennedy. They both walk 1.86 guys per 9, while Cain is better at striking people out, and giving up less HR's and he's a bit tougher with guys on base. All the Cardinals have done against Cain is score 9 runs over his 11.2 IP this year for a 6.94 ERA. Overall the Cardinal hitters have good numbers too, Beltran/Halladay/Jay/Schumaker are a combined 14-34 with 2HR. Kennedy is on 5 days rest here, but that really hasn't seem to help him this year as he posts a 4.34 ERA on 5 days rest and a 4.00 ERA on the road. He's really only faced one elite hitting team on the road on 5 days rest and that was the Rangers and he gave up 6 ER in 5.2 IP. I don't think the extra rest will benefit him here tonight.

4* MLB POD

4.5** MLB POD

[b]Pirates -136 4.5** MLB pod[/b]
The pirates are back at home where they have dominated in 2012 going 35-18 a leagues best and they'll look to end a 9 game losing streak at PNC to the padres who are one of the worst road teams this year.

James McDonald makes a home start after struggling over his last five starts where ironically he was on the road for 4 of them. This pitching staff is far more dominat at home an McDonald follows that trend posting a 2.15 era at PNC. Hell face the padres owners of the 25th ranked ops bs RHP.

Volquez starts for the Padres and his 5.33 bb/9 are alone enough reason to fade him, but the pirates active hitters have a .922 ops against him. The Pirates are also scoring 6.65 runs per 9 over the last 5 games vs RHP. They are also 24-8 in their last 32 as a favorite.

Cardinals -135 4.5* MLB POD
The Cardinals have good odds to bounce back from an embarrassing 15-0 loss. They are the best team in terms of hitting vs. LHP with an .813 OPS and they have had success against Madison Bumgarner who has not pitched as well during the day or on the road with ERA

Padres -130 4* MLB POD
Clayton Richard goes up against the Cubs who are 29th in .635 OPS vs. LHP. They have only face dRichard once and struggled and Richard has been solid at home 3.46 ERA and a 3.33 ERA during the day. IN 29 AB they have a .588 OPS against Richard. On the flip side Jeff Samdzija has a 5.00 ERA on the road and a 6.03 ERA during the day. The Padres have 42 AB and they have a .820 OPS led by Carolos Quentin who is 3-5 with a HR. The Padres are also a better day team both pitching and hitting and they are red hot right now scoring 5.86 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP. Cubs on the road this year average 2.75 runs per 9 vs. LHP and they have a 5.09 bullpen ERA to the Padres 2.53 bullpen ERA at home. Cubs are 8-26 in their last 34 road games vs. LH starter and 15-41 in their last 56 road games.

Rangers +104 4.5* MLB POD
I like the Rangers here as under dogs particularly because they have roughed up Lester who has struggled big time at home and I don't see an end to that in site as he posts a 6.96 ERA at home including giving up 7 ER in 2 innings to Texas earlier in the year. He's on 4 days rest after throwing 105 pitches and the active line up for the Rangers has 40 hits and a .323 average with 5 HR. They'll start 7 right handed bats to whom Lester has allowed an .844 OPS too. The Rangers are one of the best vs. LHP and are scoring 9.62 runs per over their last 10 games alone. Boston meanwhile has not seen a lot of Dempster although he pitched a gem 7 innings 0 ER while with Chicago this year. Their line up is 8-49 with a .163 average. I'll take the odds and go with the Rangers tonight.

REDS +127 5* MLB POD
Bronson Arroyo has really dominated the Brewers who have lost 12 of 16 while the Reds have been red hot. In his last 4 starts in MIlwaukee he posts a 1.93 ERA winning 3 of the 4 and today's line up has a lot of holes against him in 195 total at bats they have just 40 hits for a .204 average. The Reds are also 20-7 in Arroyo's last 27 road starts vs. a losing team as they always seem to get a quality start out of him as he posts a 3.39 ERA on the road this year.

Yovani Gallardo has not been nearly consistent despite his 3.60 ERA at home. He has a 4.08 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Reds this year and a 4.76 in 3 starts last year. Tonight's line up has a lot of success sin 145 at bats they post a .331 average and 8 HR. The Brewers have nothing to back him up as their bullpen has a 5.92 ERA at home and a 6.59 over their last 10 games while the Reds are under 2.50 on the road and over their last 10 games. Reds are also scoring 5.5 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games and are 8-2 in their last 10 match ups with Gallardo.

Angels -102 4.5* MLB POD
Francisco Liriano makes his second start as a member of the the White Sox and he'll face a team he has not done well against posting a 7.63 ERA in 3 starts this year. Liriano has also struggled during his day starts posting a 5.86 ERA and he'll go up against a line up that in 108 AB has a .962 OPS against him. On the flip side, Dan Harren is on some extra rest and has kept the White Sox and their hitters in check over his career holding them to a .620 OPS in 95 AB over their career. He's got a 4.25 ERA during the day this year but traditionally he's been a great day starter with a 2.92 ERA over the last three years combined. I see him pitching a quality start over Liriano who is only on 4 days rest.

Rays -134 4* MLB POD ; Rays/Giants Parlay +186 1* play
Jeremy Hellickson has 8 starts vs. the Orioles posting a 1.99 ERA. At home he's been even better with 2 complete games and a 0.88 ERA. He's on 5 days rest and should be fresh to go up against Wei-Yen Chen who is also on 5 days rest, but threw 22 more pitches in his last outing. Chen has a 4.27 ERA on the road compared to Hellicksons 3.25 ERA at home and he posts a 5.84 ERA in 2 starts vs. the Rays pitching even worst in Tampa on the carpet with an ERA over 7.

Hellickson will go up against the O's who have a .200 average and a .616 OPS against him. The Orioles have really fell off lately and are now ranked 21st IN OPS vs. RHP where they were in the top 10 for a majority of the season. While I like Hellickson in this match up along with the Orioles struggles in Tampa - 1-5 getting outscored by a 30-10 margin, I like the odds of the Rays getting Chen out early. The Rays have faced 8 top 25 fly ball pitchers at home. None of them have gone more than 6 innings and that includes Justin Verlander (6/4ER). Combined they posted a 4.70 ERA which is not impressive at all considering how the Rays have struggled. Chen is 10th in ground ball % and he'll give up a lot of fly balls there is a reason why he has a 4.37 xFIP thus far compared to his 3.65 ERA. He's not as good as that ERA and I think it shows again in his third start against Tampa who have now won 5 of 6 and are creeping back up into contention, just a 1/2 game out of the Wild Card behind Oakland and the Angels.

[b]REDS -131 4* MLB POD[/b]
Loving the Reds here the only thing that worried me was Wandy Rodriguez's on 1 extra day of rest than Latos, but Rodriguez tends to struggle in that situation posting a 4.60 ERA over his last 5 on 5 days rest. He also goes up against a Reds team scoring 5.30 runs per 9 vs. LHP and will have a healthy RH line up tonight to beat Rodriguez who over his last 3 vs. the Reds has a 6.35 ERA. Latos meanwhile has an ERA well under 3 in his 4 career starts vs. the Pirates and the active line up is just 7-44 against him. I don't anticipate much to change as the Pirates have really cooled down and even their bullpen which has been a rock all year has started to cool down.

Royals -119 4.5* MLB POD
I love the Royals in this spot despite them facing an unknown in Kluber, making the start for the Indians. It's not very easy for him to start against the Royals on the road. Kluber was walking 3.52 guys per 9 in AAA and he was also only leaving 66% of base runners on base. That won't get it done at the majors and that tells me he's not so cool under pressure.

On the flip side the INdians will face Bruce Chen and you can tell they are getting desperate against lefties with some first timers in there including Rottino. All in all there are a total of 94 at bats with just 24 hits for a .255 average and 7 of those hits come from Brantley. The Indians rely on getting on base via the walk and hitting RHP. They face Chen who is ranked in the top 20 in BB/9 among starters and that's the main struggle for them here today especially since he also throws lefty. They are hitting .186 and scoring 00.96 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. ON the road this year they are scoring nearly a run less per 9 vs. LHP and their bullpen ERA is a run higher than the Royals who are scoring over a run more per 9 vs. RHP. They are about to get swept in back to back series which you would think is hard to happen, but the Indians are 3-14 in their last 17 games facing a game 3 after losing the first two.

What I like most about this play is the Indians struggles vs. LHP who have control. They've faced 5 pitchers including Chen who are in the top 50 in BB/9 among starters resulting in 8 games where they are 0-8. Those pitchers have posted a 1.09 ERA. Chen has better control than Sale, Vargas and Price all who gave up a total of 3 ER combined in 26.2 innings pitched. Their most recent game was against the Twins Diamond who threw a complete game shutout.

4* MLB POD

Tigers -122 (4.5* MLB POD)
Josh Beckett likely won

REDS -144 4.5* MLB POD
We rebounded nicely yesterday with the Dodgers 4-0 win and we return Monday with just 1 play. This play is on the Reds and Mike Leake who faces a Padres team that struggles to score runs as the Reds look win an 11th in a row. Leake has posted an ERA of 2.86 over his last 7 starts after struggling early and the Padres have never faced him. Volquez returns to Cinci where he pitched well in his career but lacked run support. The same thing has been true pitching for the Padres and he has not been that great. He posts a .862 OPS vs. the Reds in 31 AB, but it is his 5.12 BB/9 that concerns me and I think the Reds should be able to take advantage of that. The Reds are also 20-7 in their last 27 vs. a RH starter and 39-18 in their last 57 home games as a favorite.

Dodgers -106 4* MLB POD
Just one play today after yesterday's unfortunate 0-2 day. The Dodgers are just on a roll right now and I"m not going to shy away from them despite them having to face Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong vs. the Dodgers has given up a .310 average and a .771 OPS in 129 AB while the Giants have just a .589 OPS in 173 AB vs. Kershaw. Kershaw has been great during his day starts posting a 2.76 ERA and he's got two quality starts already vs. the Giants this year and over his previous 11 starts over the last three years posts a 1.27 ERA.

I expect the Dodgers to be able to do some work against Ryan Vogelsong whose 2.26 ERA does not tell the entire story. He's been quite lucky posting a 4.44 xFIP as he's been fortunate to leave 85.2% of runners on base. The Dodgers are 13th with runners in scoring position and since picking up Hanley Ramirez seem like a different team.

Indians -120 5.5*MLB POD
Two major reasons why I like the Angels today. First I was not surprised last night when they got shut out by the lefty Scott Diamond. The Indians have been awful vs. lefties, but they are scoring nearly 1.5 more runs per 9 vs. RHP as they are 3rd IN OPS vs. RHP this year while Minnesota facing the righty Justin Masterson is 19th. The Indians actually score more runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road at 5.03 than at home.

The second major reason is Twins starter Samuel Deduno despite the Indians never facing him they should be able to get on base plenty. Deduno has always struggled with control and he only throw two pitches for the most part. A fastball and curve ball and he's walking 6.19 guys per 9 in his 3 starts. Well the Indians can clean up today as they are 1st in the majors in walks and should be able to take advantage. Deduno likely won't go deep in the game meaning the bullpen will have to play a major part and the Twins bullpen has an ERA over 5 in their last 10. The Twins are also 17-40 in their last 57 home games as an under dog and 6-20 in their last 26 Saturday games. I look for Justin Masterson to improve on his last two starts in Minnesota where he posts a 0.66 ERA. He won't have to go against Trevor Plouffe who went on the DL yesterday and was 3-8 vs. Masterson. Masterson is 7th in GB% behind his teammate Derek Lowe who leads the league. I bring that up because in two starts against the Twins this year he has 15.2 IP and 1 ER. The Twins have faced a RHP in the top 13 in GB% 4 times. (Lowe 2x, Henderson Alvarez 1x, and James Shields). Those pitchers combined for a 0.88 ERA. I like Mastersons' chances on Saturday against the Twins.

Oakland A

Cardinals -133 (4.5* MLB POD)
We got absolutely slaughtered yesterday by the A

Jays -128 4* MLB POD
The A's have been red hot, but I think the Jays will take game #2 behind their former ace. Romero has struggled big time but he gets a chance to turn it around on Wednesday night vs. an A's team that's 24th in OPS vs. LHP this year and have struggled vs. Romero over their career. Romero posts a 1.70 ERA in 6 career starts vs. the A's and has held their line up to .632 OPS in 81 AB. AJ Griffin making his 6th start for the Jays does not go deep into the game and he's been particularly lucky thus far considering he has just 6K/9 as he has a .227 BABIP and 86.1 LOB%. His xFIP of 4.24 tells a more accurate story. The Jays are 6th in average with runners in scoring position with a .270 average and 7th with .809 OPS. Griffin is getting just 39.1% ground balls and the Jays love to hit the home runs. Something Griffin will have issues with in Toronto in his first game on turf.

Pirates -158 (5.5* MLB POD)
Paul Maholm faces his old team on the road on Tuesday where he posts a 6.15 ERA this year. He

Indians -151 (4.5* MLB POD)
I look for the Indians to avoid a 3 game skid with their ace on the mound on Monday.

Nationals -133 4.5* MLB POD
I love the Nationals here today to even up the series up with the Braves. The Braves are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. LH starters and have dropped to 18th with a .713 OPS vs. LHP. They'll face Ross Detwiler, who may not be a big name, but is getting big results. Detwiler has held the Braves line up today to 15-63 with 0 HR, that's a .238 average. Take Prado out of the mix and that's 8-50, he's largely dominated this line up. That's something Jarr Jurjens can not claim this year or against the Nationals.

Jurrjens goes up against 5 hitters who have faced him today and are a combined 24-75 for a .320 average and a couple of home runs. Nationals have hist .309 vs. RHP over their last 10 games. Jurrjens has struggled big time during his day starts posting a 5.87 ERA while Detwiler in 2 day starts has a 0.75 ERA. Detwiler has also posted a 3.06 ERA during home starts while Jurrjens posts a 4.91 on the road and is only striking out 3.80 per 9 innings while walking 3.60 for an xFIP of 5.77. In his last three starts vs. the Nationals (all last year) he posts a 9.56 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP. The Nationals are 39-19 in their last 58 vs. a starter with a WHIP > 1.30.

Red Sox -130 4.5* MLB POD
Red Sox will face a pitcher in Carlos Villanueva who is on a hot streak posting a 1.59 ERA in his 3 starts, but against Boston the story has been far different as they have a .985 OPS in 41 AB vs. the reliever who is now starting. I mention he's a reliever because it's unlikely especially with his 4.83 BB/9 ratio that he'll go deep into this game. That means the game will likely fall in the hands of the Blue Jays 23rd ranked bullpen. That bullpen has been even worse since Villanueva left it and over their last 10 games they post a 5.47 ERA.

Boston will rely on Aaron Cook to continue to cook up some ground balls with his 58.8% ground ball percentage he would be among the top 3 if he qualified with enough innings. Toronto is now without Jose Bautista making it even easier for Cook to pitch effectively. The Jays have faced 2 pitchers in 3 games that are among the top 10 in GB% and those pitchers post a combined 1.35 ERA and all three starts were of quality. I expect the same from Cook who posts a 1.23 ERA over his last three starts w/ 0.77 WHIP. Toronoto is also 10-27 in their last 37 road games vs. a winning team while Boston is 8-2 in their last 10 home games as a favorite -110 to -150 and 15-6 in their last 21 overall. Lastly Andy Fletcher will be calling balls and strikes and the Jays are just 5-19 in their last 24 with him back there.

Angels -137 4.5* MLB POD
The Angels return home after a disappointing road trip, but they get there ace on the mound on Friday night in a very important game against their division rival that

Marlins -121 (4.5* MLB POD)
Two lefties face off in a day game at Wrigley Field in Maholm vs. Buehrle.

Padres -132 4* MLB POD
The Astros have been ice cold especially since losing Carlos Lee. They have gone 2-14 while getting outscored 78-37 while batting .157 with runners in scoring position. This being the rubber game and the fact that the Padres have hit much better of late (scoring at least 7 runs in 3 of their last 4 games), I think they

Rockies -120 4.5* MLB POD
All of a sudden the Pirates are sliding losing 3 of 4 since the break. The same thing happened last year and I just do not think this team will be able to hold up, particularly away from home where they are just not built to win. This is an interesting match up when you look at it closer as the Rockies are 7th vs. LHP in OPS and are scoring 5.58 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home as they face off against Eric Bedard. Bedard has struggled big time and posts a 7.99 ERA over his last 5 game starts and a 9.51 in his last 5 road starts and now he faces one of the better LHP hitting teams.

On the flip side Christian Friedrich has pitched a lot better of late and has been victim of some bad luck this year as is evident by his 3.66 xFIP and 8.79 k/9 stat. He's been victim of .367 BABIP and 66.3 LOB%. The Pirates have been hot with the bats, but I see that continuing to slow down. The Pirates are 26-69 in their last 98 road games vs. a LH starter and 5-12 in their last 17 in Colorado.

Reds -127 (4.5* MLB POD)
I think the Reds stay hot to defeat the Diamondbacks, a team not known for its road success.

Phillies -130 4.5* MLB POD
I like the Phillies here today as they have a major advantage in pitching with Cole Hamels going who has held the Rockies hitters collectively to a .611 OPS in 99 AB. Though Drew Promeranz, making the start for the Rockies, has never faced the Phillies I'd say they have a huge advantage. Promeranz has been largely lucky with an ERA just above 3 considering he is walking 5.09 guys per 9 and K'ng just 6.88 per 9. He's held teams to .51 HR/9 and .250 BABIP while allowing just 44% ground balls which all in all is pretty shocking considering where he plays. I think that luck starts to change today as the Phillies rough him up a bit. The Phillies are 55-23 in Hamels last 78 vs. a losing team and 13-3 in their last 16 with him on the mound as a favorite -110 to -150 so the oddsmakers usually get it right and I think they do again today with the Phillies knocking Promeranz out of the game early and they'll have success against the Rockies 4.13 bullpen ERA which is ranked 21st.

Cardinals +118 4.5* MLB POD
These are great odds considering we have a team that has the edge on both sides, offense and defense.

Pirates -121 4.5* MLB POD
Tim Lincecum has not been the same pitcher all year. His main issues have been his control where he is walking 4.7 guys per 9 innings, but the fact that he's taken 2 mph off his fastball on average can not be ignored either. He's had a 8.65 ERA in his last 5 road starts and he's faced some bad hitting teams. Those 5 teams were ranked at the bottom of the league in OPS vs. RHP 30, 29, 28, 23, and 18th. The Pirates are at the back of the league in OPS vs. RHP too however over their last 10 games they have been hitting scoring 6.95 runs per 9 vs. RHP and batting .300.

A.J. Burnett makes another start and he's been dominant much of this year. He's got a 2.01 ERA at home and a 2.86 ERA during day starts which backs up the Pirates #1 ERA during day games at 2.68. Pirates also are the best home team this year. Burnett eve has controlled Melky Cabrera who is 2-21 vs. the RHP. The Pirates are 20-7 in their last 27 as a favorite and 20-6 in their last 26 home games while Burnett is 11-0 in his last 11 starts. Lincecum on the other hand 5-16 in their last 21 on 4 days rest and 2-10 in his last 12 road starts.

Reds -108 4* MLB POD
I'm looking for the Reds to take another game on the road against the Padres despite the great pitching of late by Clayton Richard who has relied on the ground ball. Homer Bailey though has better numbers vs. the opposition and I'm banking on him to continue that as he has posted a 3.48 ERA in 5 career starts and he's been pitching great on the road posting a 1.89 ERA over his last 5. He goes up against the Padres who are 28th in OPS vs. RHP with a .680 and are scoring just 2.97 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home.

Clayton Richard can not claim such success vs. the Reds who he has posted a 5.57 ERA against over 4 career starts. Phillips, Votto, and Bruce are 11-25 combined alone and the Reds are 5th with a .781 OPS vs. LHP this year. The Reds also have the better bullpen this year by nearly an entire run. The Reds are 27-9 in Bailey's last 36 starts vs. a team with a losing record while Clayton Richard is 5-19 in his last 24 home starts. Richard has gotten it done thus far by being in the top 10 with the ground ball. He only K's 5.23 guys per 9 and his .260 BABIP and 69.5LOB% are well below the norm and are what I consider to be lucky. He faces a Reds team that is 7th in LD% vs. LHP, 26th in GB's meaning they just don't hit grounders as they are 4th in HR/FB so Richard can't expect the same amount of ground balls today and I think the Reds will be able to scratch a few runs across and hold onto any lead with their great bullpen.

Brewers -133 4.5* MLB POD
These are good odds considering the Brewers are 11-3 in their last 14 match ups with the Astros. These are also good odds considering Carlos Lee is no longer with the Astros and are 10-28 in their last 38 games. These are good odds considering Yovani Gallardo is 10-2 with a 2.81 ERA lifetime vs. the Astros and the Astros hitters have 57 AB for a .158 average and .348 OPS vs. Gallardo who is pitching well right now. These are good odds considering J.A. Happ vs. the Brewers has not been very good posting a 6.08 ERA over his last 5 before this year and collectively the Brewers have 101 AB, a .347 average and a 1.060 OPS.

Happ has pitched well lately, but why? He's faced the Cubs, ranked 30th in OPS, the Indians ranked 25th in OPS, and the Royals ranked 21st in OPS vs. LHP. The Brewers are 13th with a ton of success vs. Happ who the Astros rarely win for whether he's pitching well or not. The Brewers are 39-18 in Gallardo's last 57 as a favorite and 23-9 vs. a team with a losing record. I like Gallardo and the Brewers to go into the all star break on a high note.

Rangers -128 4.5* MLB POD
It

Marlins -119 4* MLB POD
I love the Marlins despite getting beat on the walk off yesterday because Josh Johnson is just on top of his game right now and the Brewers have 66 AB total against him and not much to show for it with a .412 OPS and a .167 average. Johnson posts a 1.89 ERA over his last three starts and has a 2.27 ERA in his last 10 July starts. Randy Wolf on the other hand has a 4.11 ERA over the last three years and posts a 4.92 ERA at home over the last three years. Marlins have a .774 OPS combined against him in their career which is far better than the .412 OPS that the Brewers have against Johnson. Brewers are actually just 13-19 during day games and are ranked 22nd with a 4.20 ERA while the Marlins are 14-13 ranked 8th with a 3.38 ERA. The Brewers bullpen has an ERA over 6 at home this year.

Yankees -109 4.5* MLB POD
For a third day in a row we are going with the world

Yankees +123 4.5* MLB POD
I'm going with the Yankees here today although they are 0-7 in their last 7 visits to Tampa I believe they have too many advantages and with this kind of value it is hard to pass up a big play. Garcia will make his first start since being sent to the bullpen where he has thrived with a 1.56 ERA. Garcia struggled as a starter earlier this year, but he faces a Rays team he has dominated over his career. He has posted a 1.32 ERA over his last two visits to Tampa and collectively the Rays have just a .540 OPS in 127 AB against him. Rays are currently 23rd with a .698 OPS vs. RHP and 20th at home with a .673 OPS so Garcia should be in good shape for a quality start. Especially since the Rays are losers of 6 of 7 being out scored 39-17.

Matt Moore on the other hand has been pretty good of late, but he's on 4 days rest in this game for the first time since May 22nd where he threw just 4.2 innings giving up 4 ER. Moore has faced some light hitting teams of late ranked 22nd, 13, 18th twice over his last 4 starts in terms of OPS vs. LHP. He will have his hands full the second time around vs. the Yankees. I don't trust Moore's stuff for one he struggles with control walking 4.3 batters per 9 and he's giving up 1.33 HR/9. Yankees are #1 in HR and #3 in BB's. Moore throws just 3 pitches and he throws the fastball 70% of the time where the Yankees are ranked #1 vs. that pitch. Yankees are 45-20 in their last 65 vs. LH starter. Garcia on the other side has a 4.03 xFIP and has much more control walking just 2.32 guys per 9.

Yankees -140 4.5* MLB POD
I think we are getting great odds here in this game considering Floyd's troubles with the Yankees and the tendency to give up HR's which is what the Yankees are all about. Floyd is giving up 1.5 HR/9 and is coming off two quality starts so I believe a let down is in order. He's struggled vs. the Yankees posting a 5.47 ERA vs. the Yankees over his last 4 and collectively the Yankees have 149 AB, a .282 average and an .840 OPS.

Phil Hughes on the other hand has 4 starts and 4 relief appearances posting a 2-1 record and a 0.75 ERA holding the Sox to a .586 OPS in 66 AB. The Yankees are the #1 OPS team during day games with a .819 and are 14-8. The White Sox are 10-23 in Floyd's last 33 as road dogs. The Yankees on the other hand are 32-10 in Hughes last 42 as a home favorite and 18-6 in their last 24 vs. RH starter.

Reds -129 4.5* MLB POD
I love this play based on the success Mat Latos has had over the years against the Giants particularly at ATT Park where he has a 1.85 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in his last 5 starts here. Collectively the Giants have just a .566 OPS against Latos who before this year had 3.17 ERA during his last 27 day starts compared to Zito who has a 4.56 over his prev 21. Reds are also an excellent day hitting team where they rank 8th in OPS while the Giants are 24th with a .676 OPS during the day. The Reds are also one of the better hitting teams vs. LHP ranking 5th with a .790 OPS and they are even better against Zito.

The Reds have a .307 and a .921 OPS in 127 AB vs. Zito, but the starting line up today is collectively 28-88 with 3 HR and a .318 average. Zito has pitched well during the day and at home which is the reason we are getting such a low line. However he's been really lucky considering he's got just 5.03 K/9 and 4BB/9 this year. He's held opposing batters to a .250 BABIP so that's one of the reasons his 4.00 ERA is where it is but it should be closer to his 5.21 XFIP. Latos on the other hand has 8.42K/9 and 2.84 BB/9 and his xFIP is 3.95. His greatest weakness is also a weakness of the Giants. He's given up 1.73 HR/9, but the Giants are 28th overall in HR and 29th in HR during day games with just .54 HR/day game.Oddsmakers have been pretty accurate with the lines when Zito starts as the Giants are 4-12 in his last 16 as a dog +110 to +150 and I'm betting that trend moves to 4-13.

Rockies -144 5* MLB POD
We are going with the Rockies as our MLB POD despite their inability to keep teams from scoring a lot of runs. Facing the Padres could help as Jeff Francis goes up against the Padres who are 28th in the league in OPS vs. LHP and are only scoring 3.30 Runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road. Francis has held them to a .506 OPS in 55 AB and he will have plenty of run support the way the Rockies have been hitting especially Carlos Gonzalez 34-74 wiht 7 HR 18 RBI during a 17 game hit streak. Gonzalez is playing like an MVP right now and I think the Rockies can get in a little groove here. Rockies are #2 with a .792 OPS vs RHP and are #1 with a .868 OPS at home. They'll face off against Jason Marquis who is pitching well above what his raw stats say which is trouble. He's got less than a 2:1 K/BB ratio as he is walking 3.73 guys on the year and giving up 1.64 HR/9 is hard to do when you are getting over 54% ground balls. He's in trouble in Colorado vs. a hot team who is led by Todd Helton who is 10-32 with 3 HR. collectively they have an .825 OPS against Marquis. Padres are 15-39 in their last 54 road games as an under dog.

Angels -111 5* MLB POD
I got to believe the Angels stay hot as they are now 13-3 in their last 16 road games. They have a distinct match up advantage on the mound here with Dan Haren who has dominated the Jays vs. Brett Cecil making just his 3rd start this year and struggling to go deep. Cecil is on just 4 days of rest after 98 pitches compared to Haren who is on 5 days rest. Dan Haren has dominated the Jays in the past despite his tendency to give up home runs in 2012. IN his last 2 starts in Toronto last year he posted a 2.40 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. Over the last three years he has a 2.43 ERA in 4 starts on turf. The Jays have a .226 average and a .684 OPS vs. Haren in their career. Their main issues is going to be dealing with Haren's #2 pitch the cutter which he throws a third of the time. The Jays are ranked 28th this year vs. the cutter.

ON the flip side Brett Cecil will have his hands fill with the #1 offense in June. The Angels have exploded and have come on real fast hitting lefties hard but also righties. They have an .831 OPS this month and over their last 10 games they are hitting .368 and scoring 7.68 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Career vs. Cecil they have hit him hard with an .837 OPS. Cecil has 5 career starts vs. the Angels posting a 6.43 ERA. Cecil over his last 3 years has posted a 4.79 ERA at home and even worse a 6.08 ERA in June compared to Haren's 2.93 ERA in June. Haren has struggled of late giving us plenty of value on this line. The Jays are 5-14 in their last 19 as a dog and I don't think their bats can keep up with the Angels who are also getting success out of their bullpen a 1.01 ERA over their last 10.

Red Sox -131 4.5* MLB POD
Two south paws kick off a day game today where the Red Sox are 10-15 during the day this year while the Blue Jays are 15-13.

Dodgers -116 4.5* MLB POD
Clayton Kershaw is the definition of a stopper and the Giants own a career .537 OPS against him in terms of their active hitters.

Cardinals -108 4.5* MLB POD
Ricky Nolasco is coming off one of his worst starts of his career and now he returns home to face the Cardinals whom he has struggled against.

Astros -115 4.5* MLB POD
The Indians are 29th in OPS vs. LHP as they face J.A. Happ whose numbers look bad on paper, but he's been solid at home in most of his games and carries a 3.89 XFIP. He should be able to have success against the Indians who are hitting just .219 and scoring 3.64 runs per 9 vs. LHP while posting a bullpen ERA of 5.13 on the road this year over a run higher than the Astros bullpen ERA.

Derek Lowe starts for the Indians and Carlos Lee is very familiar with the righty going 16-44 with 2 HR and a .364 average. Lowe has a 6.18 ERA in his 7 road starts and he faces an Astros team that's scoring nearly a run more at home than the Indians are on the road. Astros are also 36-15 in their last 51 inter league games as a favorite -110 to -150.

Angels -146 5* MLB POD
I like Ervin Santana to continue what he did last time out which was throw a complete game shutout. For on the Dodgers are 30th in the league in June OPS with a .614 mark while the Angels are on a tear 21-7 in their last 28 games and are 2nd with a .815 OPS in the month of June. It also helps that Santana has dominated the Dodgers holding them to a .594 OPS combined in 139 AB with a .223 average. He's on 6 days rest so the complete game where he only threw 102 pitches will not be a factor. I see him dominating these Dodgers hitters today.

On the flip side the Angels 26 runs in their last 3 games alone go up against a lefty in Chris Capuano. Angels have soared in their rankings vs. LHP and are now 12th overall with a .731 OPS. Over their last 10 games they have a .347 average and are scoring 8.45 runs per 9 vs. LHP. Pujols leads the club vs. Capuano as he's19-36 with 5 HR to combine with the rest of the team which has a total of 91 AB and a .462 average and 1.364 OPS. Capuano has had a nice start to the season, but he will digress and have inconsistent starts for a while and this is one I"m banking on him struggling in.

Dodgers are now 16-48 in their last 64 inter league road games while the also going 8-22 in their last 30 trips to play the Angels. While the Angels are 46-17 in their last 63 games vs. the NL West and 40-17 in their last 57 inter league games vs. LH starter.

5.5* MBA pod

[b]Thunder + 140 5.5* nba pod pirates -155 4* pod[/b]
McDonald has been like an ace posting 1.75 era in 7 home starts and he goes up against the twins offense which is ranked 29th in ops .644 on the road this season. Twins start Liam Hendricks who has pitched terribly allowing 8 hr in 5 starts and he faces the pirates who before last night had 25runs over 3 games. Pirates are a streaky offensive bunch and I see them scoring some runs off Hendricks. McDonald should be dominant especially if joe Mauer doesn't start.

Padres +170 2* Early Bird Bonus
I feel there is tremendous value here as the Padres try to avoid the sweep in this twilight game.

Thunder +150 5.5* NBA POD

[B]Red Sox -148 4.5* MLB POD; [/B]
Mark Buehrle and Clay Bucholz face off against each other once again and I"m backing Bucholz as he continues to pitch like an ace of late. Buehlre also pitched well last time out but he didn't have to face David Ortiz who will be DH'n tonight and is 20-58 off Buehrle in his career. Overall the Red Sox have hit Buehrle and lefties well this season while the Marlins have been pathetic vs. RHP. Bucholz also has been stellar during his night starts posting a 4.10 ERA this year is not as impressive but over his previous 40 night starts he posted a 2.66 ERA.

The Marlins just are not hitting they are 28th in OPS during night games, and are 26th vs. RHP. They have 32 AB and a .188 average with a .653 OPS vs. Bucholz. Boston has much more experience with 302 AB vs. Buehrle and Buehrle's last 3 starts in Boston have resulted in an 8.20 ERA. He doesn't strike guys out so he relies on his control and ground balls, but the Red Sox should be able to get to him at Fenway in my opinion. If they don't the Marlins will have to hit and they are hitting .179 with 21 runs over their last 12 games. Boston vs. LHP compared to Marlins vs. RHP is not even close they are +2.03 runs per 9 on the season, +3.35 at home vs. away, and +3.44 over the last 10 games. All the while Boston has a bullpen that's nearly a run better and they post a bullpen ERA that's over 5 runs better over the last 10 games combined 1.07 to 6.18.

Rangers -170 5* MLB POD
We are getting pretty good odds considering the Rangers have a better bullpen by nearly a run on the year, by 1.06 on the road vs. SD at home, and by 2.01 in the last 10 games.

Marlins -116 4.5* MLB POD
The Marlins won a thriller yesterday and though we were the unfortunate ones on the other side of a 15 inning loss after the Rays gave up 3 unearned runs during Shields start we think this is the turning point the Marlins offense needs. They'll have their ace Josh Johnson on the mound as he faces a struggling Rays offense one that is now 24th in OPS vs. RHP and 24th in OPS with a .674 mark during day games. Rays have 44 AB .182 average and a .523 OPS vs. Johnson and Longoria had three of their total hits. Without Longoria the Rays are unable to do damage against quality pitchers like Johnson.

On the other side Cobb has been struggling getting beat up for 4,4, and 5 runs in his last 3 starts as more and more of a scouting report comes out on him. He's a pretty basic pitcher with nearly 90% of his pitches being a fast ball or a change up. Now if you have a deadly combination that can be effective but Cobb rarely tops 90 mph on a regular basis. I think the win last night was what the Marlins needed to get their bats going and I see them going on a run here.

Rays -134 5* MLB POD
James Shields is having a great year, but his numbers are not telling the full picture. He's a rare guy in the fact that he's got 8.64 K/9 and he gets a ton of ground balls 56.4% among the leagues best. He faces the Marlins, a team he has flat out dominated of late. Over his last three starts he's got 24.1 IP and 1 ER while K'ng nearly 30 batters. The Marlins continue to struggle vs. RHP and are 26th in OPS. TB is averaging over a run better vs. RHP per 9 innings and the story is even worse when we look at it from a H/A perspective and if we look at the last 10 games the Marlins are scoring just 1.45 runs per 9 and their bullpen is struggling mightily with a 8.63 ERA. On the season the Rays bullpen has been over a run better. While they post a 2.28 bullpen ERA at home this year.

The Rays will continue to stay afloat without Evan Longoria as they face Anibal Sanchez. They are 23-10 in their last 33 games vs. RH starters at home and over their last 10 games they are scoring 5.43 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Rays hitters own .826 OPS vs. Sanchez who is starting to come back to live giving up 11 ER combined over his last two starts. Marlins are 6-15 in his last 21 starts as an under dog and they are 16-40 in their last 56 as a dog +110 to +150.

Yankees +119 4* MLB POD
The Yankees as under dogs in inter league play?

ARI/TEX U10.5 4.4* MLB POD

Dbacks +144 1.5* bonus

Angels -137 4.5* MLB POD
After looking at the card a few times this game sticks out the most to me. C.J. Wilson goes up against the young lefty in Nate Eovaldi who throws 95mph. However, there is now a scouting report on Eovaldi and the scouting says that 3 out of 4 pitches he's throwing a fast ball. The Angels are the #1 team in hitting that pitch over the last 2 weeks. They also have been more selective while getting walks which was a rare thing for them in the first two months of the season. That results in better counts and better pitches to hit and the results are obvious. The Angels have scored 7.23 R/9 over the last 10 games while hitting .328. While the Dodgers .222 3.15 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10. Wilson combo of 8.32 K/9 and a 54% ground ball rate are intriguing and a rare combo. Unlike Eovaldi he spreads his pitches out with 5 different pitches in his arsenal. His last 4 outings have been stellar while opponents have a .146 avg against him. He's also 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 5 career road starts in inter league play. I'm going with the Angels and their new approach to stay hot and take this game.

Red Sox -104 4* MLB POD
love the Sox here as Mark Buehlre has started to come back to earth with a 4.91 ERA in his last two starts. Now he faces a team that has faced him many times before and the active lineup has a .337 average against him in nearly 100AB. That's not including David Ortiz fromt he bench who is 20-58 vs. him. The Red Sox as a team have hit much better vs. LHP (3RD IN OPS) than the Marlins have vs. RHP (26th). I also like the fact that Bucholz seems to be back on top of his game wiht three quality starts in a row posting a 0.92 WHIP and a 1.50 ERA. He'll be back on top of his game today as he faces a Marlins team that is scoring just 2.26 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games and have never seen Bucholz before.

Meanwhile Buehlre goes up against the Red Sox who are scoring nearly 2 runs more per 9 vs. LHP than the Marlins are vs. RHP and they are scoring 5.55 over their last 10 combined while sporting a 2.79 bullpen ERA. Speaking of bullpen the Marlins have a 6.51 over their last 10 and a 4.48 ERA at home while the Sox have a 2.84 on the road. I'm not that worried about Bucholz on short rest as Buehlre is too and the Red Sox are 26-7 in their last 33 with Bucholz on 4 days rest. Marlins are 21-43 in their last 64 home games vs. a RH starter where they struggle big time.

[b]Angels +101 4* MLB POD[/b]
You can't go wrong with taking the Angels as under dogs right now even if it is against MLB's best team record wise. The Dodgers send Chris Capuano to the mound who is 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA. However, it's been long coming for him to digress and against the Angels who came off a series scoring 28 runs in 3 games and Pujols has monster numbers against Capuano as he's 18-33 with 5 HR. Tori Hunter is also 7-15 with a HR and the others help combine for a .472 average and a 1.406 OPS in 72 AB. The Angels are hitting .318 with 7.78 runs per 9 over their last 10 games vs. LHP and are 39-14 in their last 53 vs. the NL West as well as 41-17 overall in their last 58 in interleague play. Dodgers meanwhile are 18-42 in interleague play vs. a winning team. I like the Richards kid going for the Angels as he seems to have good stuff striking out 8 against a Mariners team that has been hitting lately. Capuano lately has benefited from opponents having a .228 BABIP. Angels are 3rd over the last 14 days with a .337 BABIP. Something is bound to break and I'm putting my money on it being Capuano.

5**nba pod