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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-14 | Central Florida +17 v. Baylor | Top | 52-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
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01-01-14 | Michigan State v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. In the smaller December bowl games, the more motivated team will often get the cover. That becomes less of a factor as we get into the bigger January bowls, as both teams are generally happy to be here. That means the coaching and talent will typically be the deciding factors, turnovers notwithstanding. In this case, both teams are well-coached and both teams are talented. That said, I believe Stanford is a little better offensively and that the Michigan State is going to have some trouble keeping up.
The Spartans average 29.8 points per game, 5.4 yards per play. Meanwhile, the Cardinal average 33.2 ppg and 6.4 ypp. Over the last three games, those numbers are even more slanted in Stanford's favor. The Cardinal are averaging 42.7 points their last three games, a whopping 513 yards and 7.7 yards per play. Conversely, the Spartans are averaging 26 points and 408.7 yards their last three games. Some could potentially argue that this game is bigger for MSU. While it is true that Stanford has been here before and would have liked bigger things, this is the 100th edition of the Rose Bowl. I don't believe "lack of motivation" to be a factor. While its been a while since they met a team from the Pac-12 (previously Pac-10) the Spartans have never fared too well when they did. I expect that to continue to the case here, as Stanford picks up a big win and cover. 10* |
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12-31-13 | Duke v. Texas A&M -11.5 | Top | 48-52 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
I`m playing on TEXAS A&M. In many ways, the Blue Devils have had a more successful season than the Aggies. One could certainly argue that they`ve over-achieved while the Aggies have under-achieved. That`s definitely been the case at the betting window. I believe the Aggies are laying this many points for good reason though. I expect them to rise to the occasion with a big double-digit win.
The Blue Devils were able to more than hold their own against mediocre or good opponents. When facing an elite team - Florida State - in their last game, they were outclassed, a 45-7 blowout. While the Aggies aren`t in the Seminoles class defensively, they do have a bigtime offense, led by an elite QB. The Aggies average 586 yards per game on the season, 43.6 points. They should put up big numbers against a Duke defense which allowed more than 400 yards per game. The Blue Devils averaged only 23 points per game on the road this season. Johnny Manziel will likely be playing his final college game and he`ll be looking to go out with a bang. Having lost their games against ranked teams this year, the entire team figures to have something to prove. I don't think Duke will be able to keep up. 10* |
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12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 19-42 | Loss | -110 | 310 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I've had excellent success in picking my spots to back the Eagles this season. I believe this will prove to be another good spot to do so.
This matchup features two of the best running backs in college football. BC's Andre Williams became just the 16th back in NCAA history to crack the 2000 yard barrier and the first since 2007 to turn the trick. Arizona's Carey led the nation in rushing last year and followed up with another big year (1700+ yards) this year. The teams are similar in many ways. Both teams started the year with question marks at quarterback but with Williams and Carey carrying the mail as the focal point of the offense, the Eagle's Chase Rettig (a 4-year starter) and the Cat's B.J. Denker have both developed into solid game managers. Both teams are somewhat suspect on defense. Boston College rocks the nation's 107th ranked pass defense, a stop unit that allowed opposing QB's to complete 67% of their passes with a 24-9 TD/Int ratio. The good news for the Wildcats in August was that they returned all 11 started from an outfit that allowed 35 points and 499 ypg last year. The bad news is that this same crew allowed 25 points-per-game on 409 yards per this year. In a game that figures to see a lot of running, note that the Eagles' defense has been a little better against the run. BC allowed 154 rushing yards per game, 3.9 per carry. Meanwhile, Arizona allowed 170 rushing yards per game, 4.2 per carry. The Eagles were 4-2 ATS as underdogs and 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. On the other hand, Arizona was only 2-4 SU/ATS against teams with a winning record. I believe that its worth mentioning that the Eagles played Florida State much tougher than any other team in the country did. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, it should also be noted that the Eagles have one of the best kickers in the country, The bottom line is that I believe that these are two evenly matched teams, far more so than is indicated by the line. That being the case, I believe grabbing all those generous points will prove the way to go. 10* |
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12-30-13 | Middle Tenn State +7 v. Navy | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. Both teams come in on a roll. Navy is off a 34-7 win over Army, its fourth straight victory. The Blue Raiders are off a 48-17 victory, their fifth in a row. While the Midshipmen are always tough, I don't believe they should be laying this many points against a team which is arguably playing as well as they are.
The Blue Raiders should be happy to be here, always an important factor in bowls. They felt snubbed by not being chosen for a bowl game last season. Their last bowl game was in 2010 and they lost that one. Coach Stockstill said this of the Blue Raiders: "I told them to think back to their emotions that they had at this time last year and to understand and appreciate how special going to this bowl is going to be." The Navy option attack is never easy to stop. Having more time to prepare for it helps though. Also, note that the The Blue Raiders' run defense improved down the stretch, allowing an average of 116.6 yards over the last three games. In addition to having a QB who threw for nearly 2300 yards and 16 TDs, the Raiders have a pair or backs, who have combined for more than 1400 yards on the ground, Parker with 767 and Whatley with 640. The Raiders, who will a Navy team which gave up 35 or more five times, have averaged 42.6 points over their last five games. I expect them put up enough points to earn at least a cover here. 10* |
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12-28-13 | Michigan v. Kansas State -5.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS STATE. Its true that Bill Snyder hasn't had much success in the bowls of late. I expect that to finally change tonight.
With five wins in their final six games, the Wildcats are playing with confidence. Needless to say, Snyder desperately wants to break the bowl drought. His players desperately want to do it for him. They'll be catching a Michigan team which will be playing without its starting QB. Freshman Shane Morris will be making his first career start. Considering that starting QB Devin Gardner threw for 451 yards and four touchdowns last game out, that's a big deal. While a first time starter would normally like to rely on a solid ground game to help him out, Michigan isn't strong in that department. The Wolverines average 3.2 yards per carry, 112th in the country and their worst mark this millennium. While the Wolverines would prefer to be in a bigger bowl, this is a big deal to the Wildcats. Junior linebacker Jonathan Truman noted: "Nobody on our team has won a bowl game, with the exception of the coaches. We need it. We want it really bad." I look for the healthier, hungrier team to win this one, picking up the cover along the way. 10* |
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12-27-13 | Marshall v. Maryland +3 | 31-20 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. I'm aware that the Herd have the better record and the more impressive stats. I still don't believe that they should be favored here though.
For starters, the records can't be fairly compared without comparing the schedules. The Terps have faced the likes of Clemson, Florida State and Virginia Tech. They've also taken on teams like Boston College and Syracuse. Marshall also faced Virginia Tech. Otherwise, its toughed opponents were Ohio, Rice and East Carolina. Not exactly the Seminoles or Tigers. (Marshall was a double-digit favorite against every other team.) As for the common opponent in V-Tech, Maryland beat the Hokies, at V-Tech. The Herd lost by eight. (Both games went to OT.) The Herd haven't been the same team on the road, where they are allowing 31.7 points and 398.7 yards. While this is technically a neutral site game, its being played at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, which is roughly 27 miles from the Maryland campus. Coach Edsall noted: "One of the things we've talked about is Maryland pride and we get a chance to play in our state capital. For us to be able to get back and to play in Annapolis will be great." The Terps were terrific against opponents from outside their conference. I look for their experience against elite teams to help them and for the venue to work in their favor. 9* |
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green -5 | 30-27 | Loss | -103 | 195 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing Bowling Green. I believe that white hot Bowling Green will pound a Pittsburgh outfit that was life and death to get bowl eligible.
There is no question that Bowling Green was the best team in the MAC at the end of the year winning its final five games by a 202-44 aggregate. We also owe the Falcons a huge dept of gratitude for eliminating Northern Illinois from a BCS bowl game with an easy 47-27 beat down of the Huskies in the MAC championship game. BG head coach Dave Clawson has moved on to Wake Forest. However, I don't expect motivation to be a problem; interim coach Adan Scheier has been with the program five years serving this year as the tight end and special teams coach. Rather than being a negative, I fully expect the Falcons to circle the wagons and come up with yet another big effort. Remember, this is the same field that they won the conference championship just 20 days ago. The Falcon offense is guided by Matt Johnson who has developed into a solid mid-major signal caller and was almost single-handedly responsible for the Falcons taking down NIU with his five TD passes. Johnson should be chomping at the bit to do well here, as he is from Harrisburg, Pa but wasn't recruited by the Panthers due to being "too small." Pitt is fortunate that this year is so "bowl heavy" as the 6-6 Panthers really should have already turned in their equipment. Savage is a pro style passer with two good targets in Boyd and Street but the this is an offensive line that allows a lot of sacks. The Panthers are likely going to have trouble keeping the Rutgers transfer upright against a pass rush that easily put the clamps on Jordan Lynch in its last outing. In the end, we have a team that is rolling and 4-1 ATS against bowl teams this year outgaining those five opponents by 109 yards-per-game. The Falcons are also 11-2 in their L13 road games and have covered 73% of all their games over the last three years. I expect another big win. 9* |
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12-21-13 | Buffalo +1 v. San Diego State | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -112 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo. Motivation typically plays an important role in who covers in bowl games. In this case, I believe that Buffalo will be the more motivated team.
The Bulls have had a nice season despite losing two of three down the stretch and getting mauled by Ohio State and Baylor in their first two games. In between, Buffalo went on a run of seven straight wins to lock up the second bowl appearance in school history and first since the 2008 Turner Gill led team. The Aztecs had a similar season to Buffalo, starting the year 0-3 including a loss to I-AA Eastern Illinois before winning seven of eight and finally getting crushed at UNLV in their finale. SDSU goes bowling for the fourth straight year, staying home twice and playing in New Orleans. That said, one has to wonder how excited the Aztecs are to be in frigid Boise. I think the difference in this bowl will be the physicality of the MAC team. San Diego State hasn't fared well against big imposing outfits and that's exactly what the find here with the Bulls. The Buffalo defense was staunch against its own kind holding the opponents in their seven game run to just 73 total points. They are led by stud linebacker Khalil Mack who will be playing on Sundays. On offense, UB is unspectacular but still averages almost 31 ppg led by the school's all-time leading rusher Oliver and deep threat at wide out ..... Alex Neutz. The Aztecs do some things well with walk-on QB Quinn Kaehler and 2X 1000-yard rusher Adam Meuma but both players production waned towards the end of the year and both were no-shows vs UNLV in a game that the Aztecs really needed to have. Not only can SDSU be bullied around, the Aztecs' special teams are an abomination. San Diego States' PK's are 8-15 kicking FGs and have missed six extra points. The return and cover units are below average as well. costing SDSU key field position. While neither of these two mid-majors are particularly special, I expect the more physical, more fundamentally sound and more highly motivated Buffalo team to win its first bowl. 10* |
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12-07-13 | Ohio State -5 v. Michigan State | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Despite their perfect record, a lot of people don't seem to believe in the Buckeyes. That sentiment has kept this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I believe its also helped us by providing excellent value.
Needless to say, the stakes are very high for both teams. While both ultimately just want to win, it should be noted that an "impressive" win by the Buckeyes would potentially go along way in helping to fend off a one-loss SEC champion in the BCS standings. True, the Buckeyes only beat the Wolverines by a point last week and are now 0-3 ATS their last three. However, last week's game was at Michigan and the previous two games were still blowout wins, as they won by 28 and 25 points. Even with last week's nail biter, which should actually serve them well here, the Buckeyes are still outscoring teams by an average of 28 points per game. They score an average of 48.2 ppg (50 on the road) and allow 20.2. While also impressive, Michigan State arguably hasn't been as dominant. The Spartans score 29.4 (30.4 on the road) and allow 11.7 (13.6 on the road.) While we have to go back a bit, note that Michigan State is 4-6 SU/ATS its last 10 in a dome while Ohio State is 8-4 ATS (10-2 SU) in domes, during the same time. Don't forget that Ohio State has now won 24 straight games. Urban Meyer had this to say: ''I feel very strongly about my team. I would take this team anywhere with me. A team that knows how to win and refuses to lose is a special team and this is a very special team.'' Ultimately, I look for Ohio State's superior offense to be too much for the Spartans. I expect the Buckeyes to keep the winning streak in tact and look for them to cover the small number along the way. 10* |
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12-07-13 | Marshall v. Rice +6 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 75 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on RICE. While the line on the Thundering Herd has climbed, I fully believe that the Owls are capable of scoring the upset here.
Both teams finished with 7-1 conference records. As they did not play each other that meant that the Bowl Championship Series rankings were the "tiebreaker" used to determine where the C-USA title game would be played. The Owls finished with a combined BCS score of .2093 which was ahead of Marshall's .1874. That means that the game is played at Rice. As coach David Bailiff noted: "There's no place like home." Indeed, the Owls are a perfect 5-0 here, outscoring teams by a 31 to 12.4 margin. On the other hand, while Marshall is averaging an impressive 36.3 points per game on the road, the Herd are also giving up a whopping 30.2. I've pointed out a few times that the Herd have struggled as road favorites. They're an awful 11-25-4 ATS the last 40 times that they were in that situation, 1-4 ATS this season. While the Owls haven't played a December game here in recent years, they are an impressive 12-0 their last 12 November home games - becoming harder and harder to beat here as the season progresses. While the Owls have played some close games recently, I believe that will serve them well here. As I noted, an upset will not surprise. However, with the last two meetings both decided by four or fewer points, including last year's double-OT thriller, I'm grabbing the generous points. 9* |
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12-06-13 | Bowling Green +5 v. Northern Illinois | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. There's no doubt that the Huskies are a very good team. I believe the same can be said of the Falcons though.
The Huskies have had their hands full in this title game the past couple of years and haven't had much success covering in dome stadiums. They needed double-OT to beat Kent State last season. The previous year, they hit a field goal, as time expired, to beat Ohio 23-20. The Falcons, who are playing their best football right now, may well be their toughest challenge yet. The Falcons are 4-0 their last four games and they've outscored those opponents by a commanding 176-17 margin. They won those games, three of which came on the road, by scores of 45-3, 49-0, 58-7 and 24-7Absolute domination. On the season, the Falcons are permitting only 13.8 points per game, good for the fifth best mark in the entire country. Bowling Green is 4-2 ATS the past couple of seasons as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7 range. I won't be surprised to see another MAC title game come down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get. 9* |
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12-05-13 | Louisville -3 v. Cincinnati | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. The Cardinals have been on a slide at the betting window and are now only 4-7 ATS on the season. However, lets not forget that they're still 10-1 on the season, the lone loss coming by a field goal vs. UCF. While I played against the Cards in that game, I feel they're offering us excellent value here.
A closer look at Louisville's 10 wins shows that ALL of them came by at least seven points. In other words, they'd be 10-1 ATS if laying as small a number as they are here. One could argue that the Bearcats have more to play for - as they still have a shot at reaching a BCS Bowl game, while the Cards do not. While I do believe that's significant, I don't believe it'll be enough for Cincy to overcome the talent edge, which I believe Louisville has. This is still a big rivalry game - the last time they'll likely play for awhile. Its also another shot for Bridgewater to impress the various NFL teams that may be interested in taking a QB in the draft. Both teams have very good offensive numbers. Cincy scores 34.2 ppg while Louisville averages 35.5. The Cards' defensive numbers are quite a lot better though. The Bearcats are allowing just 18.5 points per game and only 304 yards per game. Solid numbers indeed. However, the Cards are permitting a mere 242.7 yards and 11.4 points per game. On the road, that number dips all the way to 8.2 points allowed per game. The Cards are 10-5 ATS their last 15 on the road. I expect them to rise to the occasion with a win and cover. 9* |
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11-30-13 | Texas A&M +5 v. Missouri | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A@M. While the Tigers have had a much better season, I won't be surprised if the Aggies score the upset here. At the least, I expect them to give the Tigers all they can handle. That makes the points an attractive option.
True, the Aggies got blown out at LSU last week. However, they'd won their previous three games by a combined score of 164-72. For the season, Manziel and the Aggies are averaging 45.6 ppg, good for sixth best in the country. While the Aggies 356.1 passing yards per game is among the nation's best, Manziel can also beat teams with his legs. Josh Dobbs and Jalen Whitlow (Tennessee & Kentucky) both had some success in picking up chunks on the ground against the Tigers - and Manziel is more dangerous runner than either of those QBs. Yes, the Aggies have a few losses. However, Missouri hasn't had to face any of the three teams (Alabama, Auburns, LSU) that defeated Texas A@M. While Missouri won by 14 at Ole Miss last week, the game could have easily been much closer. Keep in mind that the Tigers are still only a month removed from losing to South Carolina. So, they aren't unbeatable. The Aggies are 6-3 SU/ATS their last nine off a conference loss. The last time that they were in that situation, they hammered Vanderbilt by a score of 56-24. I expect them to bounce back with another big effort here, en route to AT LEAST a cover. 10* |
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11-30-13 | Alabama -10 v. Auburn | Top | 28-34 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. While the Tide are fairly heavy favorites, there seems to be quite a lot of talk about Auburn scoring an upset here. I'm not buying it.
The Tide have been dominant on both sides of the ball. They began the season with a 35-10 win over V-Tech. That was followed by a 7-point win at Texas A@M. Since then, the Tide have defeated all nine opponents by double-digits. Only one of those opponents scored more than 10 points. That was LSU, which got 17. Alabama still won by 21. Both teams have put up big points on offense. Auburn is averaging 39 ppg. Alabama average 39.7. Auburn has averaged 7.1 yards per play. Alabama is averaging 7 yards per play. Its on the defensive side of the ball where Bama really has the edge. The Tide are allowing an average of 9.3 points and 263.9 yards per game. The Tigers, on the other hand, are allowing 22 ppg and 406.9 ypg. While opposing teams are managing only 4.6 yards per play against the Tide, they average 5.7 ypp vs. the Tigers. Alabama has outscored conference opponents by a 39.6 to 11.9 average., out gaining them by nearly 200 yards per game. On the other hand, Auburn has outscored them by a 36.1 to 28 margin, out gaining them by an average of 18 yards per game. While Auburn certainly deserves a lot of credit for an excellent season, the Tigers could easily have a few more losses. I believe that their magic runs out here. Alabama won last year's game by a score of 49-0. The year before, playing at Auburn, the Tide won by a 42-14 score. The Tigers again have homefield advantage and they've had an extra week to prepare. In the end, I don't think it will be enough. I expect another double-digit win for Saban and the Tide. 10* |
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11-30-13 | Florida State v. Florida +29.5 | 37-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. At one point, many had this game circled as a possible stumbling block for the Seminoles, which could prevent them going to the National Championship. Given the recent results of both teams, not many people are saying that any longer. In fact, as you can see, Florida State is laying a rather massive number. With all due respect to the Seminoles, who are indeed very strong, I believe that number will prove to be too big.
Off last week's embarrassment, not many are going to want to touch the Gators here. That sentiment has helped in providing us with such a generous number. Personally, I believe that last week's debacle will help serve as motivation for the Gators. While the Seminoles have been extremely impressive, I believe that the Winston sexual assault investigation may prove a distraction here. Also, with the Gators' struggling so much, I feel it will be easy for FSU to get caught looking past them, ahead to bigger things. On the other hand, there's no looking ahead for the Gators. This is their final chance to show that they aren't one of the worst Florida teams in recent history. Florida State nose guard Timmy Jernigan had this to say: "At the end of the day they're still the University of Florida and they're going to come out and play us hard, probably harder than any other team that we play |
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11-29-13 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +8 | Top | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. This game is very important for both teams. The Bulldogs are looking to remain perfect, hoping to get to a BCS bowl game. The Spartans are looking to ruin that dream while becoming bowl eligible themselves.
Its true that Fresno State has a big time passing attack, led by Derek Carr. San Jose State's QB (Fales) is no slouch either though, arguably the best QB that Fresno will have faced. While Fales has thrown a few too many (13) interceptions this season, the fifth-year senior has also completed 62.2% of his passes for 3,642 yards and 27 TDs. Note that the Spartans' offense that has put up 600 or more yards in three games for the first time in school history. While the Spartans have dropped back-to-back games here, both losses came by six or fewer points. Prior to the recent skid, they'd won four straight. While they've blown out their last few opponents, the Bulldogs have still seen four games decided by seven or fewer points this season. Note that I'm not necessarily sold on their special teams' unit. The Spartans, who have had one more day of rest and preparation time than the Bulldogs, are an excellent 13-4 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons. With so much on the line, I expect Fales and co. to bring their A-Game and for the Spartans to rise to the occasion with at least another cover. 10* |
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11-23-13 | USC v. Colorado +23.5 | Top | 47-29 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. As indicated by the pointspread of greater than three touchdowns, the visitors have had a much better season. That said, I really like how this one sets up for the home team.
The Buffaloes are playing their final home game of the season. While its been a tough year, they're off a rare win, beating up on Cal by a score of 41-24. That should provide some confidence here. I believe that the Trojans could easily be ripe for a "letdown." They're off a huge win and have just gotten back into the top 25. They've also got rival UCLA on deck. Given those circumstances, it may not be easy to "get up" for lowly Colorado. Including an ATS loss at Hawaii to start the season, the Trojans are 0-3 ATS the last three times that they ere listed as favorites in the 21.5 to 31 range. During that time, they're 3-6 ATS as road favorites, overall. I believe they'll find the going tougher than expected tonight. 10* |
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11-23-13 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +8.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. Much is on the line in a game that has the potential to be one of the weekend's best. With all due respect to the visiting Bears, I believe the home underdog is providing us with outstanding value.
No two ways about it. Baylor has had an exceptional season. The Bears are indeed a very talented and explosive team. Note that the Bears are dealing with a couple of key injuries, including Tevin Reese who has 33 receptions and 824 yards to go along with eight touchdowns. The Cowboys aren't slouches either. This well-coached team went in to Texas and crushed the Longhorns last week, its sixth straight win. The Cowboys have only lost once all season. That came on the road, back in September - and by single digits. While the Cowboys' offensive numbers aren't quite as ridiculous as Baylor's numbers, OK State can still score plenty of points. Indeed, the Cowboys are averaging 40.4 points per game, 47.5 points per game since Clint Chelf took over as the starting QB. I'll gladly grab the generous points. However, playing in this hostile environment, I won't be surprised to see Baylor suffer its first loss. 9* |
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11-23-13 | Missouri v. Ole Miss +3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI. The Tigers come in with the higher ranking and as the favorite. While they deserve respect for an excellent season, I'm expecting to see an upset. The Rebels have only lost one game here all season. That was against Texas A&M and the loss came by only three points. They lost by eight at Auburn. Their only other loss - and their only loss by more than eight points - came at Alabama. The Tigers have been tough against the run, but not so much against the pass, I believe that the Rebels have the passing game to take advantage of that weakness. Missouri gives up 274.9 yards per game through the air. Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace averages 266.4 passing yards per game. The Tigers get their starting QB (Franklin) back in the starting lineup. Franklin was having an excellent season before he got hurt in the Georgia game, throwing for better than 1500 yards with 14 TD passes against only three INTs. That said, Franklin hasn't started in four games and now he's on the road in what figures to be a very hostile environment. While Pinkel says he "looks great," I won't be surprised to see some effects from the layoff. It should be noted that even if Franklin plays at his best, there can sometimes be a little bit of a letdown from the rest of the team - when a "star" returns. Its not always the "boost" that most assume. Often, players give a little bit extra when the star (or #1 QB) is out, to try and help out the replacement and do their best to win without him. Then, when the star returns, the other players (subconsciously) will "relax," if only slightly. While the Rebels may not be an "upper tier" SEC team, they're still good enough to be ranked in the top 25 in the country overall. In fact, the Rebels have won four straight including a win over LSU - the Tigers were ranked #6 at the time. Last week, the Rebels racked up 751 yards, en route to a 51-21 rout of Troy. While the Trojans admittedly aren't very good, that type of blowout should give the Rebels plenty of confidence here. I'll gladly take whatever points are being offered but as stated earlier, I expect an upset. 10* |
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11-23-13 | Vanderbilt v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Commodores come in as the hotter team. They're also off a big win in last year's game. However, that was at Vanderbilt. The Vols, who are back at home now, have still dominated the rivalry over the years.
While any game in this rivalry is big for both teams, I believe this game will mean more to the Vols. Yes, the Vols have a poor record and are off some bad losses. However, lets keep in mind that this team has played a killer schedule. They've taken on the likes of Oregon, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Missouri and Auburn. Lets also remember that the Vols beat South Carolina and nearly (should have) beat Georgia. While the Commodores are no slouches, I still believe they represent a step down in class from the recent teams that the Vols have faced. A win here - and a win next week at Kentucky - and the Vols can still become bowl eligible. The Vols should be refreshed, having had last week off. Yes, the Commodores deserve some credit for being Florida. However, lets also keep in mind that they got outgained by a 344-183 margin in that game. This is the final home game for the Vols' senior class. They've had a rough time but can change their history by going out by winning their last two games and becoming bowl eligible. The only previous time that the Vols played with two week's rest in between games this season was when they beat South Carolina. I successfully backed the Vols in that game and I expect Jones to have them ready to go once again. 10* |
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11-23-13 | Marshall v. Florida International +33 | 48-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. One look at the line tells you that Marshall brings more to the table, as a team. That doesn't mean that the underdog isn't the correct side though.
I successfully played against the Thundering Herd in their last game. They beat Tulsa by 11 points but that wasn't enough to cover. As I pointed out in the Tulsa game, the Herd have been dismal as road favorites for years. They're now 10-25-4 ATS their last 39 as road chalk. That includes an 0-6-1 ATS mark their last seven. Playing the second of back-to-back road games and with a big showdown vs. East Carolina on deck, I believe it will be hard for the Herd to fully focus on lowly Florida International. The Panthers are playing their final home game. I expect them to show some pride and to give all they've got here. In their last game here, the Panthers were 27 point underdogs vs. East Carolina. They covered the spread in that one, losing by 21. They're getting considerably more points to work with here and I believe that's providing us with excellent value. 9* |
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11-23-13 | Duke v. Wake Forest +6 | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I've had some success picking my spots to play on and against the Demon Deacons. I feel that this will be a good spot to play on them.
Give the Blue Devils credit for having a great season. They're 8-2 and if they can win their next two games, they'll get a shot at Florida State in the ACC Championship game. A win on Saturday will give them nine victories and match their school record. I'd still argue that the Deacons need the game more though, as they need both their remaining games in order to become bowl eligible. I believe that all the recent success could easily go to the Duke players' heads here. After all, its not something the football team has exactly been accustomed to over the years. While the Deacons will be without receiver Campanaro, I expect them to have the edge on the other side of the ball. The Deacons allow fewer points, fewer yards per game and fewer yards per play. The Deacons are 4-2 ATS the last six times they were off two or more consecutive losses and 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were off a bye. I expect AT LEAST a cover. 9* |
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11-21-13 | Rice v. UAB +19.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. Recent results have created a very large number for this one. While I respect the Owls, I believe this line is a little too high.
Rice is off a blowout win. However, that was at home. The Owls' last road game resulted in a 28-16 loss. UAB is off back-to-back blowout losses. However, those were both on the road. The Blazers did also lose their last home game. But, that loss came by only a field goal. Their only other home loss came by just 14 points. Rice is 3-3 when playing away from home. Only one of those victories came by greater than six points though. I believe the short turn-around will favor the home team. When asked about playing on a short week, UAB coach Garrick McGee noted: "You lose a couple of days of preparation. In the offseason we spent some time on Rice, using last year |
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on TOLEDO. As you're likely aware, this is a very big game for both of these teams. With a victory, Northern Illinois can clinch at least a share of the Mid-American Conference West Division title. If the Rockets win, however, there would be a 3-way tie, with Ball State.
While the Huskies have dominated this conference in recent years, I believe that Toledo's homefield advantage will prove significant this evening. Northern Illinois coach Carey had this to say of the Glass Bowl: "It's going to be a hostile environment. It's going to be Wednesday. It's going to be a night game. It's an 8:00 p.m. kickoff, so it's going to be cold. I'm sure it's going to be windy |
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11-16-13 | Houston v. Louisville -15 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Both these teams were handed a loss by UCF. In both cases, I was on the Knights. I went against Louisville when the Knights upset them 38-35. I also went against Houston when the Knights defeated them last week. Unfortunately, UCF won but didn't do enough to cover the spread in that one.
In my opinion, one significant difference in the two UCF losses, is that Houston's loss came last week while Louisville has had ample time to "recover." The Cardinals have won their last two games by a combined score of 65-13. While neither team has faced a difficult non-conference schedule, I believe the Cardinals are better on both sides of the ball. Houston averages 38.1 points per game and 470.3 yards. The Cougars average 6.3 yards per play. On the road, the number of points dips to 35. Louisville averages 38.4 ppg and 481.2 ypg. The Cardinals average 7.3 yards per play. At home, all the numbers improve with the points per game improving to an impressive 44.8. Its on the defensive side of the ball where the Cards really have the the advantage though. Houston allows 22 points and 426.7 yards per game. Louisville, on the other hand, allows 10.6 points per game and 244 yards. I expect the Cards, who have had an extra day's rest, to make a statement. 10* |
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11-16-13 | Utah +28 v. Oregon | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
9* Utah. Analysis before 7am PST.
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11-16-13 | Georgia +4 v. Auburn | Top | 38-43 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. This is the oldest rivalry in the south and after all the years (116) of playing each other, the series is tied 54-54-8. There's no denying that Auburn has been much better against the point spread than Georgia this season. The Tigers also have a better SU record than the Bulldogs. That said, I'm not convinced that they're the better squad.
While the Bulldogs went through a bit of a tough spell in October, they're back on track now. They've dealt with some major injuries this season, something that has been an ongoing issue. Still, they're starting to get a few guys back and they're still loaded. Last week's 45-6 blowout of Appalachian State figures to have them full of confidence. True, Auburn handled Tennessee more easily than Georgia did. However, lets not forget that Georgia defeated LSU, a team which handed Auburn its lone loss. While both offenses have proven to be potent, I believe the Bulldogs have been a little better defensively. They're allowing 367 yards per game, compared to Auburn's 394.4 per game. Georgia holds opponents to 5.2 yards per play, just 4.2 its last three games. Auburn allows 5.5 yards per play. While the differences may not seem all that significant, keep in mind that Georgia has had to face Clemson, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida. Auburn has had to face Texas A@M and Ole Miss. (As noted, both also faced LSU and Tennessee.) So, the Bulldogs have arguably faced a greater number of high quality opponents. The Tigers have admittedly been an excellent running team. The Bulldogs have been tough against the rush though. Only South Carolina gained more than 200 yards against them on the ground. Overall, they rank 4th in the SEC against the run. I believe the Tigers will be forced to throw more often than they normally like to and that may lead to some mistakes. The Bulldogs, who have won 11 straight November games, have played five games which were decided by four or fewer points, four of those decided by a field goal. I believe that all the Bulldogs' "big" and "close" game experience will serve them well here. I'll take the points but I look for Georgia to score the "upset," killing any thoughts Auburn fans may have had about beating Alabama and sneaking into the title game. *10 |
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11-16-13 | Ohio State v. Illinois +32.5 | 60-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ILLINOIS. While going against powerful teams like Ohio State can be a little hard on the nerves, I believe this line will prove to be too high.
The Buckeyes are undefeated and have now won 21 straight. People are talking about them playing in the national title game. The Illini have lost 19 straight Big Ten games. Needless to say, not many are giving them a chance here. That's led to a line in the 30s. Again, I believe that will prove too high. Ohio State is indeed very powerful. However, lets keep in mind that other "solid" Big Ten teams like Michigan State, Wisconsin and Nebraska weren't even laying as many points COMBINED against Illinois as Ohio State is here. The Buckeyes are even laying way more points than they were when they hosted the Illini last season, a game they won by 30. Off a bye, playing a 12 ET, I believe the Buckeyes could be less than 100% focused on the task at hand. Note that Ohio State won by "only" 10 points off this season's previous bye, beating Iowa by a 34-24 margin, while laying 19 points. While defense has admittedly been an issue, the Illini can usually put points on the board, particularly at home where they're averaging 34.4 ppg. Note that they amassed more than 600 yards of offense in last week's loss at Indiana. Senior QB Nathan Scheelhaase has thrown for 2,420 yards and 15 touchdowns. I feel the number is generous and I look for Scheelhaase and co. to hang around long enough to get the cover. 10* |
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11-14-13 | Marshall v. Tulsa +13.5 | 45-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
9* Tulsa. Analysis before 9am PST Thursday.
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11-13-13 | Ball State +7.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 27-48 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. There have been some big games in the MAC Conference recently but this is arguably the biggest of the bunch. Northern Illinois is undefeated, ranked nationally, looking to take complete command of the MAC, and make a return to a BCS bowl game. Ball State is 9-1 on the season, 7-0 its last seven, looking to spoil the Huskies' dreams and win the MAC.
The game is so big that Michigan coach Brady Hoke and ESPN writer Jason Whitlock, both of whom attended Ball State, kicked in $10,000 to help bus Cardinals' students to attend. Boasting the longest home winning streak in the nation and led by a star QB, the Huskies are certainly worthy of respect. That said, the Cardinals have also proven to be worthy of respect. Indeed, they've won 15 of their last 16 regular season games. While they deserve some credit for beating a pair of Big Ten teams at the beginning of the season, keep in mind that those two teams (Iowa and Purdue) are currently a combined 7-12, 3-8 in Big-Ten play. So, it wasn't like they beat an "elite" Big-Ten team. Beating Eastern Illinois could be considered an "accomplishment" but keep in mind that the Huskies did so by only four points. Ball State has beaten a solid Toledo team, arguably a more impressive "conference" win than Northern Illinois has to its credit. The Cardinals also visited Virginia and hammered the Cavaliers by a 48-27 score. True, the Cavs are having a bad year - and are at the bottom of the ACC. Still, they're comparable to Purdue, a team in the same situation in the Big-Ten, that NIU beat by a similar score. While the Huskies have had some extra time to prepare, they're only 2-3 ATS their last five off a bye. Arguably this season's worst performance, an 8-point win against Idaho as a huge favorite, came when they played with extra rest. On the other hand, Ball State is 12-3 ATS its last 15 off a conference win. Last night's two MAC contests were both out of hand by halftime. I look for this one to be far more closely contested and am grabbing the generous points. 10* |
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11-12-13 | Ohio +10 v. Bowling Green | 0-49 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OHIO. The fact that the Bobcats got hammered last week has helped keep this number generously high. I believe that large line is providing us with solid value on the underdog.
I backed the Falcons at Ohio in last year's game. They won outright. This year's team is arguably even stronger. The defense is again stingy and the offense is better than last year's. That said, last week's performance notwithstanding, the Bobcats are also a very capable team. Let's not forget that it was them many expected to win the MAC East this season, with Bowling Green and Buffalo battling for second. Keep in mind that before beating up on hapless Miami Ohio last week, the Falcons' previous two games had been decided by just four combined points. While the Buffalo loss was indeed a crushing blow, if a a couple of things work in their favor, the Bobcats could still make some noise in the East. They know they need to win here first though. Despite being underdogs in two of their last three visits here, the Bobcats are 3-0 their last three trips here. The Bobcats had to be embarrassed from last week's debacle. The only previous time that they got blown out this season was by Louisville. They responded by going 4-0 SU/ATS their next four games. They're also 5-3 ATS their last eight off a conference loss. I expect a much better performance and am grabbing all those generous points. 9* |
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11-12-13 | Buffalo v. Toledo -3.5 | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TOLEDO. I sided with the Bulls in last year's game. This year's game is at Toledo though and the Rockets aren't laying as many points as they were at Buffalo last year. I feel the value has shifted the other way.
The Bulls are off an impressive performance against Ohio and have been playing well. With all due respect to Buffalo, I believe that the top teams in the MAC West (Northern Illinois, Ball State, Toledo) are currently a little better than the top ones in the East though. The Bulls are looking to remain perfect in MAC play. The game is arguably even bigger for the Rockets though as they need a victory to keep pace in the West, as both Northern Illinois and Ball State (who play tomorrow) remain perfect. The Rockets know that if NIU wins that one, if they can win tonight, they'll get a chance to host an undefeated NIU team for a shot at the MAC West title. The Rockets may have a few losses. Those losses all came on the road though, one at Ball State and the others at Florida and Missouri. (Neither of those SEC teams beat Toledo by more than 18 either.) At home, the Rockets are a perfect 4-0. They've outscored opposing teams by a commanding 45 to 25.2 average margin here, gaining an average of better than 550 yards of offense per game here. The Rockets are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. They've had a few more days of preparation time than the Bulls have had and I expect them to step up and get it done. 9* |
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11-09-13 | Houston v. Central Florida -10 | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CENTRAL FLORIDA. This is a huge game within the American Athletic Conference. Both teams are undefeated in conference play. The Cougars are 4-0, the Knights 3-0. Overall, the Cougars are 7-1 while the Knights are 6-1.
A couple of the Knights' six wins were really impressive. They won at Penn State AND they won at Louisville. Their lone loss came by only a field goal and that was vs. South Carolina. Houston's lone loss came against BYU. While BYU is a solid team, its not as good as South Carolina. Houston's biggest wins came against the likes of Rutgers, UTSA and Rice. Needless to say, those teams aren't in the same class as Louisville. The Knights followed up their win at Louisville with a 62-17 thrashing of Connecticut. They're well rested, as that game came on 10/26. Note that they're already 2-0 ATS off a bye this season, as the games vs. South Carolina and Louisville both also saw them enter with an extra week of preparation time. George O'Leary said of his team's mentality: "Each week you have to treat it like a championship game. Attack it, stay with your accountability and responsibility, regardless." Both teams have shown an ability to score. However, I believe the Knights are considerably better on defense. Despite facing a few tough teams, UCF is only allowing 19. 3 points and 349 yards per game. Those numbers improve a little at home, too. On the other hand, Houston is allowing 22.4 points and 430 yards per game. The 22.4 points is pretty good, but the 430 yards is considerably more than UCF. Over their last three games, the Cougars are allowing an average of 488 ypg, too. I believe it catches up to them here. 9* |
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11-09-13 | Tulane v. Texas San Antonio -7.5 | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -108 | 124 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS SAN ANTONIO. Tulane comes in with the superior record. However, I believe that UTSA is favored for good reason.
The Roadrunners have hit their stride in recent weeks. Last time out, they went on the road and hammered Tulsa by a 34-15 score. In their previous game, they beat UAB by a score of 52-31. On the other hand, after a number of consecutive upsets, the Green Wave came back down to earth last week, a 34-17 loss at FAU. Give the Green Wave credit. They've already exceeded expectations. However, lets keep in mind that they average less than 300 yards of offense per game, surrendering nearly 400. Conversely, after the last two weeks, the Roadrunners are now out gaining opponents on the season, albeit not by a much. They're averaging 418.4 yards of offense per game and that number climbs all the way to 488.5 at home. While the Green Wave average 4.2 yards per play on the road, the Roadrunners average 6.4 yards per play at home. UTSA's Eric Soza, a senior, does an excellent job of spreading the ball around and ranks among the top QBs in the conference. He's already thrown for 1991 yards and 11 TDs, completing better than 63% of his passes. Running back David Glasco II is off a big game, giving him 494 yards and two TDs on the season. Meanwhile, the defense is off arguably its best game of the season. The Roadrunners haven't been around that long, so they haven't been favored that often. They are 5-1 ATS the past few seasons when laying points though. This is a big game for them and I believe their superior offense will ultimately lead to a double-digit win. 10* |
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11-09-13 | Auburn v. Tennessee +7.5 | 55-23 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. Admittedly, the Vols haven't looked too good on the road the past couple of weeks. Playing at Alabama and Missouri, they were blown out at both venues. That was also true when playing on the road at earlier tough venues, too. Playing at home has been an entirely different matter though. The Vols defeated South Carolina in their last game here. Prior to that, they nearly beat Georgia. Overall, they're 4-1 here, outscoring teams by an average score of 36.4 to 19.8. On the other hand, Auburn is only 2-1 on the road, outscoring teams by a 33.7 to 31 margin. Note that this will be the first/only time that the Tigers play back to back road games. I feel homefield will again be significant and am grabbing the points. 9*
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11-09-13 | Missouri v. Kentucky +14 | 48-17 | Loss | -104 | 122 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY. Missouri has had an excellent season and comes in as the much higher ranked team. I'm not sure the Tigers are ready to be laying this many points, in this spot though.
While they don't have the wins to show for it, I believe this is an improved Kentucky team. Off a 48-14 blowout of Alabama State last time out, the Cats have regained some confidence and positive momentum. The Tigers are 4-6 ATS their last 10 off a conference win. With bigger games on the horizon, it should be easy to look past the Wildcats. The Tigers may get QB Franklin back. That should help them in the long-term but if he's not 100%, or perhaps a little rusty, it may not help immediately. While winning this game won't be easy, I believe the Cats are going to give it everything they have to try. Coach Mark Stoops said. "It's been an exciting week for us, big challenge. Missouri is a very good football team, as we all know. It'll be a great challenge for us." I expect the Cats to embrace that challenge, stepping up and earning the cover. 9* |
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11-09-13 | Florida State v. Wake Forest +35 | 59-3 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I've successfully played against these same Demon Deacons a few times this year, starting with their loss at Boston College and most recently in last week's loss at Syracuse. I did back them in their win over NC State though. Listed as considerable underdogs, they won outright by a score of 28-13. While Florida State is indeed one of the very best teams in the country, I believe that the Deacons are again providing us value here.
As noted, I played against the Deacons last week. However, as I pointed out at the time, they were off a heartbreaker at Miami the previous week, a deflating type of loss. They were also playing the second of back-to-back road games. This week, however, they're back home. That's noteworthy as they've won their last two games here by a combined score of 62-23, despite being listed as underdogs in each. With recent wins at Clemson and vs. Miami last week, the Seminoles have passed their immediate tests. They very likely view the next few games (WF, Syracuse, Idaho) as "sure wins" and it would only be natural to start thinking about their 11/30 game at Florida and about even bigger things beyond that. The Deacons are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were off two or more consecutive SU losses. They're also 4-0 ATS the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56 range. They were embarrassed by the Noles at Tallahassee last year but upset them here the previous season. I won't call for another outright win here, but do look for the Deacons to give their guests a tougher test than most will be expecting. 9* |
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11-07-13 | Oregon v. Stanford +10.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. Needless to say, this is a huge game. The Ducks, who are looking to avenge last year's 17-14 loss, are 8-0 on the season. They've got the Pac-12 Championship and a spot in the BCS title game in mind. Don't think that Stanford players want it any less though.
How big is this game? The winner of this matchup has won the Pac-12 title each of the past three years. The loser was handed its only regular-season loss. Had those games gone the other way, the loser would have likely played in the BCS championship game. Yes, the Ducks are again a scary team. However, et's not forget that Stanford has won 13 straight home games since losing 53-30 (to Oregon) in 2011. When talking about this game earlier in the week to a couple of long-time friends, I compared the Ducks to Mike Tyson. I noted that most fighters were so intimidated by Tyson that they'd lost before they even stepped in the ring. But, that as dangerous/dominant a fighter as he was, if someone (like Holyfield) wasn't afraid of him - and was actually willing to bully him back - that he was potentially beatable. (Both have been friends long enough to remember/know that, although I was still young, I bet Holyfield in both Tyson fights - so the analogy had a personal connection.) Anyway, as much as I respect Oregon, I have a feeling that Stanford is its Holyfield. The Cardinal aren't intimidated. Unlike other Oregon opponents, the Cardinal actually believe that they're going to win this game. True, they haven't necessarily been as dominant against their opponents as Oregon has. (That was also true of Holyfield.) However, the lone loss came on the road (by only six) and I believe that some of the close games they've played will serve the Cardinal well here. While the Cardinal did lose defensive end Ben Gardner last game, this is still another very solid Stanford defense, one which is rounding into form. The Cardinal allowed just 10 and 12 points their last two games. While the Ducks are admittedly also very good as favorites, note that Stanford is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog the past couple of seasons. Two outright wins and two losses by a touchdown or less. Going back further shows that they're 7-1 ATS as underdogs, dating back to an upset of the Ducks here in 2009. Last year's game went to OT. I expect another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get. 10* |
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11-07-13 | Oklahoma +14.5 v. Baylor | Top | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. I've successfully played against both these teams this season. In fact, I did so on the same day. I went against the Bears when they failed to cover vs. K-State. And, I went against the Sooners when they got whipped by Texas. In both cases, I felt the line was too high. I feel the same way here.
Baylor has indeed been good. Scary good. With the exception of the K-State game, they're dominated every other time they've taken the field. However, lets keep in mind that the schedule has been very weak. This is by far the Bears' toughest opponent yet. The Bears did beat the Sooners here in 2011. However, that win came by only seven points and it was the only time that Baylor has won in this series in recent memory. The Bears' schedule gets a lot tougher, starting here. Even coach Briles noted that as far as he was concerned, the season was just getting started. He was quoted saying: "We are anxious to get into the grind time." While I respect the Bears, I believe Briles needs to be careful what he wishes for - and am grabbing all those generous points. 10* |
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11-05-13 | Ohio +4 v. Buffalo | 3-30 | Loss | -112 | 38 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OHIO. Northern Illinois may be the class of the West but first place in the MAC East is on the line here. With a victory, the Bulls can remain undefeated in conference play and take a fairly commanding lead in the East. Ohio, on the other hand, can knot things up with a victory.
This is indeed an experienced Buffalo team. The Bulls know that this is "their year." That said, this is also a very good and very well-coached Ohio team. Note that this well-coached Bobcats team is 4-1 SU/ATS its last five off a bye. Also, note that they've been steadily improving since Solich arrived. When Solich arrived in 2005, his predecessor (Brian Knorr) had gone a dismal 11-35 in four years. Solich has turned things around in a big way though. In his second season here, he won nine games. The Bobcats had WON only five games twice in a 23-year span. Now, the Bobcats are shooting for their fifth straight season where they've LOST five or less games. With a win tonight, the Bobcats can actually pull above the .500 mark for the first time since the mid 1990s. Needless to say, they're going to be extremely motivated. True, the Bobcats couldn't handle Louisville in their opening game. However, they've been very good ever since, winning six of seven. (The lone loss during that stretch, came by a field goal.) In two road games, since playing at Louisville, the Bobcats are 2-0, winning by a combined score of 99-31. Note that the Bulls also got hammered when they played elite competition, getting outscored by a combined 110-33 score vs. Baylor and Ohio State. (So, Ohio wasn't the only team which struggled against top teams.) While they've won in blowout fashion, the Bobcats have also shown that they can win close games - like a 6-point win vs North Texas or an impressive 3-point win vs. a good Marshall team. That close game experience could serve them well here. The Bulls' lone "close" game came against "Stony Brook," a team they only beat by three. Speaking of close games, Ohio's last visit here resulted in an exciting 38-37 contest. While I believe the Bobcats have an excellent shot at the outright win, another close game won't surprise and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. 9* |
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11-02-13 | Auburn v. Arkansas +8 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS. I've only played on the Razorbacks once this season. That was when they covered vs. Texas A&M back on 9/28. Its a good thing that I've avoided them in their other games, as that cover has been sandwiched by six straight ATS losses, three on either side. I believe that those poor ATS results, combined with Auburn's really good recent ATS stats, have worked in our favor here - and that we're getting very fair line value.
As mentioned, the Razorbacks are reeling a little., having failed to cover three straight. However, those three games came against the likes of Florida, South Carolina and Alabama - and two of the three came on the road. (Note that this is their Razorbacks 5th straight game against a ranked opponent, the longest stretch of an SEC team in more than 20 years.) They've since had a bye, allowing extra preparation time for this game and time to lick their wounds and regroup in time for the final stretch. I believe that the bye came at the perfect time and I expect to see a refreshed and re-energized team. Arkansas head coach Brett Bielema said this of today's game: "It's obviously a big game for us. There's a lot that goes into it. They're a team that's ranked, a team that's done some good things. Obviously an opportunity to be here at home on what should be close to a sell-out crowd, an evening game that everyone should be jacked up for. It will be a tremendous environment." The Tigers are indeed on quite a roll. While they definitely deserve credit for beating Texas A&M, lets keep in mind that they won that one by only four points. (Not enough to cover here.) Their other wins have largely come against mediocre or weak opposition. I believe that they're a good team - but probably not as good as their lofty national ranking suggests. Note that the Tigers' starting QB is expected to play, but that he's a bit "sore" and banged-up. Their only other road game was a double-digit loss. Even with the win over the Aggies, the Tigers are still only 2-9 SU and 4-7 ATS on the road the past couple of seasons. They were 2-5 ATS the past two Novembers and they're 0-2 ATS the past two times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Razorbacks won by 17 at Auburn last season and they beat the Tigers by 24 here the previous season. I expect them to come in both confident and motivated and I expect at least a cover. 10* |
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11-02-13 | Michigan v. Michigan State -4.5 | 6-29 | Win | 100 | 123 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. The Wolverines may have a slightly higher ranking. However, I believe that the Spartans are favored for good reason.
Needless to say, this is a huge game. In fact, it could potentially determine who plays in the Big Ten championship game. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio noted: " |
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11-02-13 | Middle Tenn State v. UAB +5.5 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 120 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers are in one of their best roles here. Over the years, they're 6-1-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. They won four of those games outright and I believe they have an excellent shot at pulling off the upset here.
The Blazers have had a difficult schedule as this will be just their third home game. I believe that a Blue Raiders team which is 1-3 on the road provides the Blazers with an excellent shot at a win and that they'll be hungry to make the most of the opportunity. If the Blazers want to entertain any thoughts of becoming bowl eligible, this is a game that they absolutely need. I expect them to rise to the occasion with at least a cover. 9* |
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11-02-13 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse -3 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 120 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on SYRACUSE. I won with the Demon Deacons a few weeks back. Listed as underdogs, they upset NC State. That was the start of three straight ATS victories. This week, however, I feel that the value has shifted the other way.
Syracuse is 2-1 at home. The Orange have outscored teams by a 40 to 22 average margin here, outgaining them by an average of 465.7 to 347. While the victories did come again weak opposition, this can still be a difficult place to play. Wake Forest is 1-3 on the road. The Deacons are getting outscored by an average of 28.7 to 15.7 in those four games, outgained by a 408.7 to 297.2 margin. Going back a bit further finds that Wake Forest is only 4-10 (SU) its last 14 road games while Syracuse is 10-5 its last 15 home. The Orange were embarrassed last time out, losing 56-0 at Georgia Tech. That debacle should provide them with some added motivation here. Note that they've since had an extra week off to recover and prepare. The Deacons were much more competitive in losing their last game. In fact, they lost by only three points at Miami. Give them credit for playing the Hurricanes tough. However, after leaving everything on the field at Miami and losing in the final minute, they're now playing their second road game in two weeks. The previous time that they were in that situation (2nd of b2b road games) this season, they lost by a score of 56-7. While the Deacons will be trying to get coach Grobe his school record 78th victory, I believe last week's loss while have a lingering effect. These teams last met in 2011. The Orange won that meeting by seven points. The Orange know that if they want to make it to a bowl game, this is a game they desperately need. I expect another win and cover. 10* |
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11-02-13 | Temple v. Rutgers -13.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 119 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on RUTGERS. I lost with the Knights last week. I won't allow that bad call to affect the way that I look at this week's matchup though. The Knights, now taking a significant step down in class, figure to be highly motivated to bounce back with a big win. I expect them to get one.
Off back-to-back losses, the Knights desperately need a victory here. This was a team thought to be a "dark-horse" for the league title, one which came into the season with high hopes. Yet, the Knights are 1-2 in conf. play. Facing a Temple defense which gave up 728 yards last week figures to help. Despite having a 1-7 record overall, the Owls have actually covered four straight. Three of those were double-digit SU losses though and the Owls will be playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time all season. Last week, they lost by 10 at SMU. (Rutgers won there.) They're allowing an average of 556 yards per game, in losing all four of their road games. Last season, the Knights hammered the Owls, at Temple, by a score of 35-10. They spotted them a 10-0 halftime lead and proceeded to outscore them 35-0 in the second half. They should have a major edge on the defensive side of the ball and I expect another one-sided affair. 9* |
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11-02-13 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I've had a pretty good feel for both of these teams, particularly Boston College. I successfully played on the Eagles when they beat Wake Forest and Army and also when they covered vs. Florida State and Clemson. I also won with the Hokies when they upset G-Tech. I feel that the Eagles are again providing us with very fair value.
While they haven't earned an outright win against them for several years, the Eagles have covered the spread against the Hokies in back to back seasons. Last year, they lost by seven, as 10-point underdogs. Now 10-5 ATS the last 15 in the series, I believe that this year's BC team is stronger (than last year's team) and I expect AT LEAST another cover here. Note that the Eagles are 3-1 SU/ATS at home, outscoring teams by an average score of 32.5 to 24.7. The only team that beat them here was Florida State. In their last game here, the Eagles put up 48 points and more than 520 yards of offense. After six straight wins, the Hokies were upset by Duke last week. I believe that loss revealed some of Virginia Tech's issues and that the Hokies are going to again have their hands full. Note that the Hokies' previous five victories had ALL come by 10 or fewer points. The Hokies are just 4-9 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 3-7 ATS mark as road favorites. Overall, they're only 8-18-2 ATS as favorites during that time. I'll gladly grab the generous points but won't be at all surprised by an outright upset. 9* |
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11-02-13 | Northern Illinois v. UMass +23 | 63-19 | Loss | -106 | 119 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MASSACHUSETTS. I won't try and claim that the Minutemen are a better team than the Huskies. One look at the records will tell you otherwise. However, I do believe that this line is a little too high.
These teams met last season, NIU destroying the Minutemen by a 63-0 score. The Minutemen now have a full season of FBS football under their belts though and they're now playing at home. I believe they're an improved team and that last year's debacle will provide them with some added motivation here. NIU believes that its playing each and every week for a possible BCS berth. So, the Huskies will say all the right things about not looking past the Minutemen and avoiding a letdown. However, I believe that will prove easier said than done, particularly with a showdown against Ball State, another team currently undefeated in the MAC, looming on deck. (Having that game on deck could also potentially cause the Huskies to take their foot off the gas pedal slightly in the second half, and/or pull some starters early, should they get up a few scores. ) The Minutemen lost by 1-point last week and they won their previous home game by seven. They've only lost three games by more than 21 points this season and all those games came on the road. Having faced teams from the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12, the Minutemen shouldn't be intimidated here. At least not like they were last season. They're already 4-0 ATS when off two or more consecutive losses. I look for another cover here. 9* |
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10-31-13 | South Florida +18 v. Houston | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. This line has climbed quite a bit from its opener. While that move didn't surprise me, I do believe that its helped to provide us with very fair value on the visiting Bulls.
While they were beaten soundly by Louisville last week, the Bulls had previously won two in a row. They've played two road games this season, covering the spread in each. They won their most recent, a 13-10 win at UConn. Their first road game resulted in a 15-point loss at Michigan State. Of course, a similar result would be good enough to earn a cover here. Admittedly, Houston looked pretty impressive in defeating Rutgers on Saturday. I should know, as I had a play (bad call!) on the Knights. However, the Cougars previous two games resulted in a 1-point loss and a 10-point win. In fact, the Cougars have only won two games by more than 10 points all season and both of those game on the road. While we have to go back a bit, note that the Bulls are 3-0 ATS their last three as road underdogs in the 17.5 to 21 range. I look for another cover here, as the Bulls come to play, giving their hosts a much tougher game than many will be expecting. 9* |
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10-26-13 | California +28 v. Washington | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I lost with the Bears last week, as they were blown out by Oregon State. That bad call won't prevent me from giving them another shot here though.
Needless to say, its been an extremely disappointing season for Cal. At first glance, a matchup against a good Washington team doesn't figure to help matters. However, I believe that they're catching the Huskies at the right time. Washington checks in off three straight losses and having given up 98 points over its last two games. Granted, those were all very tough games and the Huskies were underdogs for each. Still, I believe their confidence may be a little shaken here. Even if that's not the case, this has indeed been a very difficult 3-game stretch. Oregon is again one of the best teams in the country and Stanford isn't far behind. Arizona State is also tough, particularly at home. I believe the banged-up Huskies will be happy to get out of this with a win as they look forward to a bye next week, which will give them time to heal and rest before the final stretch. This season's overall struggles notwithstanding, the Bears can still move the ball. Indeed, they're averaging 466 yards per game. (That's only about 15 less per game than Washington.) Goff is expected to again get the start, according to the SF Chronicle. While turnovers have hurt, Goff's other numbers are pretty impressive. He "ranks in the top 10 nationally in completions per game (6th, 26.6 cpg), passing yards (7th, 2,256) and passing yards per game (10th, 322.3 ypg). He is also third in the Pac-12 in passing yards per game. Goff has completed 186-of-308 passes (60.4%) with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions for a 127.01 passer efficiency rating over his first seven collegiate contests. Goff set Cal |
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10-26-13 | Texas v. TCU -2 | Top | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU. I backed the Longhorns in their win over Oklahoma. However, I'm going against them here.
Although the Frogs have had some trouble on the road, they're 3-0 at home. They've outscored visiting teams by an average score of 37.7 to 17. The well-coached Frogs are 5-2 SU the last seven times that they were off a conference loss, covering the spread in four of those. During that time, Texas is only 4-7 ATS off a conference win. While they've had some time off, I believe the Longhorns may still be patting themselves on the back for finally beating the Sooners. Even Mack Brown admitted that his Longhorns were feeling "..really full of themselves." Both teams can run the ball. However, TCU is better at stopping the run. (The Frogs lead the Big 12 in rushing defense, allowing opponents to average just 115.3 yards on the ground.) In last year's game at Texas, the Frogs had a 217-86 edge on the ground, en route to a 20-13 win. I look for them to have the advantage once again. 10* |
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10-26-13 | Utah v. USC -6.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC. The Trojans are 2-0 against the Utes since Utah joined the Pac-12. Going back further finds USC at 8-3 all-time in this series. I expect the Trojans to continue that dominance Saturday afternoon.
Its true that the Trojans are dealing with some injury issues and that they're off a loss. Keep in mind this team is still 3-0 its last three home games though, beating Arizona, Utah State and Boston College by a combined score of 90-52. The Utes, who were hit hard by personnel losses in the offseason, are also dealing with some injuries. They're off a double-digit loss at Arizona and playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time this season. QB Wilson is expected to start but may still be at less than 100%. The Trojans won by 10 at Utah last season and they beat the Utes by nine the previous season. Even with all their current issues, I still believe that they're the strong team and I look for them to win by more than a TD once again. 10* |
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10-26-13 | Houston v. Rutgers -6.5 | Top | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on RUTGERS. I successfully played on the "under" the last time that the Knights took the field, a 24-10 loss at Lousville a couple of weeks back. In their previous game, I successfully played against the Knights, a 3-pt win vs. SMU. This week, however, I feel that the Knights have the situation in their favor.
Houston has been a spread-covering machine this season. However, the Cougars saw their dreams of an undefeated season go up in smoke last week, losing by a single point (47-46) vs. BYU. That figures to be a tough pill to swallow; I won't be surprised if they're a little deflated here. Rutgers is 5-1 SU (4-1 ATS) its last six off a bye. During that stretch, the Knights are 5-2 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 10 range. While the Cougars can certainly put points on the board, I believe the Knights have a little more overall talent. Throw in the home field and situational advantages and I expect the Knights to pull away with a double-digit win. 10* |
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10-24-13 | Kentucky +10.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY. The Wildcats were blown out in their last game. However, that was vs. Alabama and it was the only time that it was their fourth straight very difficult game in a row. Prior to facing Alabama, they'd faced Louisville, Florida and South Carolina. They were mostly competitive in each of those games, including losing by just seven at South Carolina. I successfully backed the Cats in their cover at South Carolina and I look for them to again be far more competitive than most will be expecting.
The Bulldogs have beaten Kentucky four straight times, defeating them in Rich Brooks' last season and each of Joker Phillips' three. The Cats have a new coach (Stoops) now though and I do believe that they're an improved team. Note that these teams have played each other every year during that time and that neither team has won more than three straight in the series since 1990. The Bulldogs are 3-3 on the season. The did blow out Troy and Alcorn State but when facing quality teams have come up short. Against Bowling Green, their most recent game, they won by only one. While the Bulldogs certainly aren't slouches, they aren't quite as good as some of the teams which Kentucky has encountered recently. I believe all those games against elite opponents will serve the Cats well here, as they step down in class. I expect them to serve notice that they're no longer going to be push-overs in this rivalry, going all out for their first SEC win and earning AT LEAST a cover along the way. 10* |
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10-19-13 | Oregon State v. California +10.5 | Top | 49-17 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Its definitely been a tough start to the season for the Bears. In fact, they've only got one SU win and have yet to cover the spread. I feel that they're offering excellent value here though and that this will be the week that they finally break through with at least a cover.
In addition to playing on the road for the second straight week, this will be the fourth time, in their past five games, that the Beavers have played away from home. They've got a huge game vs. Stanford on deck next week. I feel that it will be easy to look past lowly Cal here. That will prove costly as the Bears haven't forgotten that the Beavers embarrassed them last season, a 62-14 drubbing at Oregon State. They've had more success against the Beavers here at home though, most recently a 23-8 win in 2011. While the Beavers have been explosive offensively, the defense has been suspect. The Beavers are allowing more than 30 points and 400 yards per game. On the road, the Beavers are allowing 34 points and 415 yards. That make covering double-digits tough. While the Bears have admittedly had defensive issues of their own, Cal can also move the ball. Indeed, the Bears are averaging a whopping 563 yards in their four games. While that's translated to "only" 30.7 points per game, it easily could have been more. The Bears are 6-3 the last nine times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. During that time, the Beavers were 1-2 ATS as road favorites in the 10.5 to 14 range. I believe the Bears are going to play with a chip on their shoulder and I expect them to score enough points to earn AT LEAST the cover. 10* |
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10-19-13 | Florida State v. Clemson +3 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. With it being played at Death Valley, I favor the home underdog.
I successfully played against the Tigers at Boston College last week. They needed to rally to win the game. I believe that result has worked in our favor here. The Tigers got their wake-up call last week - lets not forget that Boston College also gave the Seminoles a bit of a scare. (I also had BC in that one.) The fact that they were able to rally for the win should give them confidence and momentum here, while also some valuable close game experience. Additionally, as the perception is that they barely won last week - while FSU had a bye preceded by a 63-0 win - we're getting the Tigers as an underdog. Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley, who already has nine sacks, had this to say: ''Last year they got us, but I feel like we should have won. We're looking for payback.'' The Tigers, who beat FSU here in 2011 and who have long had ATS success as a host in this series, have been excellent in conference play the past few seasons, going a profitable 15-5-1 ATS. I'll take the points, but expect them to rise to the occasion with the outright win. 10* |
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10-19-13 | Wisconsin v. Illinois +10.5 | Top | 56-32 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on ILLINOIS. I won with the Badgers in their last game, a 35-6 blowout of Northwestern. I also won by going against the Illini in their last game, a 39-19 loss against Nebraska, two weeks ago. This time, however, I feel the value lies with the Illini, particularly after some line movement in their favor.
The Illini were on the road when they lost to Nebraska. They're back home now and they've had an extra week to prepare and recover. Note that the Illini are 3-0 in true home games, outscoring visiting teams by a 45.7 to 21.7 margin. The Nebraska loss notwithstanding, this is a much improved team from the one which lost by 17 AT Wisconsin last year, while listed as 14.5 point underdogs. Also, note that the Illini are already 1-0 SU/ATS off a bye this season. While the competition (obviously) wasn't nearly what they'll face here, the Illini were outstanding that game, beating Miami Ohio by a 50-14 margin. I backed the Illini in that game and they rewarded me by putting up more than 600 yards of offense, limiting the RedHawks to 250. While they've faced a pair of tough opponents - and while they didn't get any help from the refs out West - the Badgers are still 0-2 SU on the road. Now, they're being asked to lay double-digits away from home. Note that the Badgers, who were underdogs for each of their first two games, are 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road favorites. While the Badgers are indeed tough to stop, note the Illini are expected to get 6-foot-3, 290-pound defensive tackle Teko Powell back. As defensive coordinator Tim Banks mentioned, he's athletic enough (and big enough) to help against the pass and the run. I expect the Illini to score points, enough of them to earn AT LEAST the cover. 10* |
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10-19-13 | UCLA v. Stanford -4 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 104 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. The Bruins check with the better record and the higher overall ranking. However, I believe that the Cardinal are favored for good reason.
The Cardinal appeared headed for a showdown with Oregon, thinking if they could win that game that they'd have the inside track for the National Championship game. Those plans took a major hit with last week's loss vs. Utah. Still, I believe that Stanford can and will handle its disappointment and bounce back with a much needed victory. With a game vs. Oregon on deck, its now UCLA which is starting to entertain National Title dreams. The Cardinal have won all three meetings the past couple of seasons, covering the spread in two of those. The Cardinal are in one of their better roles here. They're 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. If UCLA can beat Utah and Utah can beat Stanford, then UCLA must be able to beat Stanford. Right? Not in my opinion. I still believe the Cardinal are the stronger team and I look for them to show it on Saturday afternoon. 10* |
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10-19-13 | South Carolina v. Tennessee +7.5 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 115 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. South Carolina is a tough and well-coached team, one which has started to have a few breaks its way. However, I believe that the Gamecocks may be patting themselves on the back a little here and that the value lies with what I expect to be a very determined home underdog.
The Vols are off a heart-breaking loss to Georgia, losing 34-31 in OT. They've had an extra week to recover though, while also giving them some extra time to prepare for the Gamecocks. I believe they'll gain confidence from the fact that they played the Bulldogs so tough. Coach Jones noted: "It's another step, another building block. We need to learn how to win these football games. That's a part of the process of learning how to win, but you can see it. I can see it evolving. I can see it every day." Speaking of playing teams tough, the Vols lost by only three at South Carolina last year, a close loss which they haven't forgotten. They were 13.5 point underdogs in that one and only lost by three, another result which should help provide them with confidence here. The Gamecocks are a poor 0-5-1 ATS the last six times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56 range. The Vols, desperate for a "signature win" under Jones, are outscoring teams by an average score of 39.7 to 19.5 here. I expect another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get. 9* |
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10-18-13 | Central Florida +14.5 v. Louisville | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on CENTRAL FLORIDA. This line has climbed considerably from its opener. While I already really liked the Knights, I now believe that we're also getting very good line value.
Louisville is indeed a very strong team, on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals check in with a perfect 6-0 record. They've defeated every opponent by a minimum of 14 points and are winning their games by an average score of 41 to 7.3. While those are certainly impressive numbers, I believe that Central Florida is by far the best team that the Cards will have faced. The Knights are 4-1 on the season, including a victory at Penn State. That 34-31 victory, part of their 3-0 road record, was arguably more impressive than anything Louisville has yet to accomplish. The Knights lone loss on the season came at home - and by only a field goal - against a talented South Carolina team. In going 3-0 on the road, the Knights have outscored their hosts by an average score of 32-16. For the season, UCF is averaging 414 yards per game, 6.5 yards per play. The defense is permitting just 16.6 ppg, 353 ypg. The Nittany Lions were the only team to score more than 30 points against them - and they got just 31. Bridgewater has proven to be a very capable QB for the Cards. However, he wasn't all that sharp last time out. While not nearly as well known, UCF has a capable QB of its own. Blake Bortles has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 1,334 yards and nine touchdowns. While the Knights are off a bye, the Cards are playing their third game in the past 13 days. The Knights have been excellent as road underdogs in this range over the years and I look for them to prove a much tougher test for the Cards than many will be expecting. 10* |
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10-17-13 | Miami (Florida) v. North Carolina +9.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. I've liked UNC all week, liking the Tar Heels at +7 or better. However, I waited until Wednesday to release the play, as I'd hoped the number might climb all the way to (or past) +10. When it looked like it wouldn't get there, II decided to jump in at +9.5. Frankly, I won't be shocked if UNC scores the outright win.
Back in the top 10 for the first time in a few years and facing a struggling UNC squad, I believe that the Hurricanes could easily get caught patting themselves on the back. While the Hurricanes are always loaded with talent and very athletic, I'm not convinced that this year's team has done enough (yet) to deserve its lofty ranking. Sure, they beat G-Tech last game. That was at home though - and they had to overcome a 10-point deficit. The Canes win over Florida, while impressive, also came at home - and it came by only five points. The Canes only road game was at South Florida. So, not only were they within their own state, they were also facing a Bulls team which has been terrible this season. Granted, the Tar Heels haven't been too good either. In fairness, however, three of their five games have been on the road - and those games were at South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech - none of them easy venues. They had one disappointing home loss (ECU) but won their other home game (MTSU) by double-digits. While its been a tough start, a win here would change everything for the Heels. Not only would they gain respect from the National TV audience, they'd put themselves back in position to reach a bowl. (After this, the schedule gets considerably easier.) The Heels upset the Canes last season, at Miami. That should give them some confidence here that they can do it again. Miami QB Morris struggled, going 12 of 26 for 155 yards with two INTs, before exiting late due to an ankle injury. The Canes won here in 2011 but it was only by six points. Prior to that, the Heels had beaten them four straight here. UNC's coach Larry Fedora said this, when asked if the season was salvageable: "There is no doubt in my mind that it is and it starts today, or yesterday or whenever you want it to start, it starts now |
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10-12-13 | Georgia Tech +7 v. BYU | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. Many people are currently pretty down on the Yellow Jackets. They're off back-to-back losses and going on the road to face a team that pounded them last season. Meanwhile, BYU is off a big win over a good team, their second straight blowout win. That has many people jumping on the BYU bandwagon. I believe that combination of pro-BYU and anti-GT sentiment is helping to provide us with excellent value on what I expect to be a highly determined visitor.
True, the Jackets are off back-to-back losses. I played against them in the first of those losses though (vs. V-Tech) so that didn't come as a real shock to me. Last week's game was at Miami. The Jackets weren't getting as many points in that game, as they are here - yet, I feel they match up better against the Cougars than they did against the Hurricanes. Keep in mind that G-Tech won its first three games by a combined score of 136-34. True, BYU looked very impressive in beating Texas, back in early December. Give the Cougars props for that win. However, last week's win at Utah State needs a bit of an asterisk beside it, as the Aggies lost their star QB early on in that one. Not that BYU lost by three at Virgnia and that it was beaten by seven here by Utah. Including the loss vs. the Utes, the Cougars are an ugly 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. During the same stretch, the Jackets were 4-2 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. G-Tech comes in with payback on its mind. The Cougars embarrassed the Jackets last season. Many of those same GT players are back and they haven't forgotten. I don't believe that the BYU defensive line is as good as the one that the GT offense struggled against last year - and I look for the Jackets to have considerably more success in putting pts on the board. Ultimately, I expect AT LEAST a cover. 10* |
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10-12-13 | Baylor v. Kansas State +17 | 35-25 | Win | 100 | 80 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on K-STATE. Playing against Baylor is likely going to be a little hard on the nerves for some. After all, the Bears are putting up ridiculous numbers on offense, even more so than Oregon. Three of the wins were against weak non-conference foes. But, the Bears did it again against West Virgina last week, a 73-42 win. Still, lets keep in mind that this is their first road game of the season. Also, note that West Virginia also lost 38-0 to Maryland, a team which was just beaten 63-0. So, perhaps blowing out the Mountaineers wasn't as impressive as it seems. Either way, I expect the Bears to receive by far their toughest test yet.
The Wildcats figure to be highly motivated. Not only do they desperately need a conference victory, but they also haven't forgotten last year's blowout loss at Baylor. The Cats were 10-0 at the time and thinking National Title game. The loss at Baylor killed those dreams. Its fair to say that the Cats, 4-0 at home against the Bears, have had this one circled. Although its been a disappointing start to the season, K-State has not suffered any losses by greater than 10 points. Last week, they lost by just four at Oklahoma State. While this is obviously an improved team, it should be noted that the Bears are just 3-6 ATS (2-7 SU) the past couple of seasons on the road, 0-3 ATS as road favorites. Its true that the Cats could be without receivers Lockett and/or Thompson. Obviously, thats not ideal when going up against such a high-powered opponent. Still, agree with K-State's Ryan Mueller, who said this of his team: " |
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10-12-13 | Boston College +24.5 v. Clemson | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 80 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I've played on the Eagles three times this season. They're 3-0 ATS in those games, the only three that they've covered. Once again, I feel that they're providing us with very fair value.
The Tigers are indeed a very good team, better than they were last year. They're laying a very big number here though and I believe they're in a tough scheduling spot. Off a win at Syracuse, they've got Florida State on deck - a huge game which everyone is already talking about. Although the Tigers are saying all the right things about not looking ahead, that's a lot easier said than done. The Eagles continue to prove, week after week, that they're much improved from last season. Although they got to face the Tigers at home last season, they played them fairly tough losing by "only" 14. This year, while they go on the road, the Eagles are getting far more points (Last year, they were +6.5) and they're a much better team. The Eagles are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were road underdogs of greater than 21 points. I look for them to be far more competitive than most are expecting. 9* |
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10-12-13 | Virginia +7 v. Maryland | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. After going 4-0 SU/ATS through its first four games, Maryland ran into a wall last week. In case you missed it, the Terps were destroyed by a 63-0 margin at Florida State. Many are expecting the Terps to immediately bounce back with a big win. I'm not sure it'll be so easy.
A 63-0 loss is a real reality check. With a 4-0 record, the Terps were really starting to think they were good. I don't think it'll be that easy to bounce back from. Note that Maryland is just 2-9 ATS the last 11 times it was coming off a conference loss. Of course, bouncing back figures to be tougher for the Terps with QB C.J. Brown expected to be out. While last week's loss vs. Ball State was admittedly not too impressive, the Cavs' other losses have come vs. the likes of Oregon and at Pittsburgh., the latter a game in which they allowed 14 points and less than 200 yards. Note that the Cavs did beat BYU, arguably a more impressive win than anything Maryland has under its belt. The Cavs have had success in this rivalry in recent seasons. They lost a close one, despite an advantage in stats at Virginia last season. However, they blew out (31-13) the Terps here in 2011. They've won seven of their last 10 visits here. Overall, the road team has won four straight in the series. I expect at least another cover for the road team here. 9* |
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10-12-13 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -10 | Top | 6-35 | Win | 100 | 126 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. Northwestern checks in with a top 20 ranking. However, I feel that the unranked Badgers are laying this many points for good reason.
Give the Wildcats credit for playing a great game last week. They very nearly defeated Ohio State. They didn't though and the tough loss figures to take a toll on them here. The Badgers are also off a tough loss vs. those same Buckeyes. However, they've had an extra week off in between games. Note that Melvin Gordon, Jacob Pedersen and Kenzel Doe all figure to play for the Badgers, the bye allowing each some extra time to recover. Homefield advantage has to be considered.The Badgers have beaten the Wildcats three straight times here, winning the last two here by 79 combined points. This season, they're 3-0 SU/ATS here, outscoring teams by a 47.3 to 3.3 margin, out gaining them by a 583.3 to 168.3 average, in terms of total yards. The Badgers are 8-4 ATS their last 12 as home favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range, going 9-3 ATS the last 12 times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. That includes a 4-0 SU/ATS mark their last four in that situation. I expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. 10* |
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10-12-13 | Oklahoma v. Texas +14 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 122 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Longhorns haven't had much success in this series the past couple of seasons. Most aren't giving them much of a chance this year either. I believe this team is better than many realize though and I feel that they're providing us with plenty of value here.
Although it hasn't exactly been easy, the Longhorns have gotten back on track with back-to-back victories. They know a win here would make everyone forget all about the ugly losses to BYU and Ole Miss. The Sooners are an impressive 5-0 and are indeed tough on both sides of the ball. That said, three of their victories have come by 14 or fewer points, most recently a 3-point win over TCU. The only teams that they beat by more than two touchdowns were Tulsa and LA Monroe. The Longhorns have been embarrassed here the past two seasons. They come in determined to avoid a repeat performance and to prove that they're an improved team. Texas junior defensive back Quandre Diggs noted: "I don't want to talk about last year. This isn't the 2012 Texas Longhorns.'' Diggs went on to say this of last year's game: 'I'm angry about it. And I'll demand anger from everybody this week.'' I like the fact that the Longhorns have had a couple of extra day's rest, having played a Thursday game last. While the Sooners are 5-8 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as favorites in the 10.5 to 21 range, the Longhorns are 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they were underdogs in that range. Don't be shocked if they're in this one the entire way. 9* |
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10-12-13 | South Florida v. Connecticut -5 | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCONN. From a temperature perspective, the Bulls may be fortunate to be playing here now, instead of next month. However, from a situational and emotional standpoint, I believe that they're visiting here at the wrong time.
The Huskies are 0-4. They've got back-to-back road games on deck, followed by a home date with Louisville. In other words, if they don't win here, it might be awhile before they get another chance to do so. Not satisfied with the start and unwilling to tolerate the losing, the Huskies have brought in a new coach. Paul Pasqualoni and offensive line coach George DeLeone were both fired on Sept 30th. TJ Weist takes over on an interim basis, as head coach. As one might expect, players seem happy with the move. Cornerback Jhavon Williams said the unity has been going extremely well. "Everybody is buying into everything for the team. No energy leaks, everybody is together, game by game, step by step, every day to get better and win games. There's been a lot of positive energy." Senior guard and captain Steve Greene said this of the line: "I really think now things are little more simplified. We don't have to think about things as much, just come out and play football. I think that the biggest thing for us right now is offensive line coach Mike Foley came in and simplified things a little bit, just come off the ball and play football." Green went on to say: "It's back to being a physical line/ Enough of this, that and the other |
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10-05-13 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SYRACUSE. Clemson is obviously a very talented team. However, I believe this will prove to be a tough spot for them.
Syracuse is off back-to-back wins and will have the support of its jam-packed dome. That can be a tough environment for any team. The Orange have won 10 of 14 here the past 2+ seasons and are 2-0 here this year. While the competition was admittedly pretty weak, they won those two games by a combined score of 106-17. While the Tigers have a big name QB in Boyd, the Orange have beaten the likes of Teddy Bridgewater and Geno Smith the past couple of seasons. They're not going to be intimidated. Syracuse running back Jerome Smith said his team can't wait to get this game started. He was quoted saying: "Everybody is ready to go. We're excited to bring them here. It's the first ACC game. Bring them in here." The Tigers, who may be patting themselves on the back a little these days, won their only true road game by just 12 points, holding only a 415-378 edge in yards. I expect them to again have their hands full the entire way. 9* |
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10-05-13 | North Carolina State v. Wake Forest +8.5 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 97 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. While its certainly been a tough start for the Demon Deacons, this figures to be a favorable matchup. The Deacons got hammered at NC State last year. However, they upset the Wolfpack here in 2011. Including that victory, they're 8-2 ATS and 7-3 SU the last 10 times that they were a host in the series.
Poor start notwithstanding, the Deacons aren't writing off their season yet. This is a team loaded with seniors, one which expected to be better off at this point. They believe they can still get to six wins but know they absolutely need this one. As coach Grobe noted: "I told our guys: 'We've got to win. That's one of those games that you |
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10-05-13 | Florida Atlantic v. UAB -4 | Top | 37-23 | Loss | -117 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers improved last year, showing glimpses of being half decent and making strides under their first year coach. I believe his year's team has improved again and that this week's game should provide an excellent opportunity to demonstrate it. Its no surprise that the Blazers are 1-3. Three of their four games have been on the road, two of them vs. SEC teams. They were competitive vs. Troy, their only road game vs. a non-SEC team, losing by just three points. In their lone home game, the Blazers won by 24. I recall reading a preview of the Blazers' season, one of the many I read. The writer offered both a most optimistic and a most pessimistic scenario. The former called for eight wins and a bowl berth. The latter called for three wins, this being one of them. In other words, even if the season went terribly, this was a game that the Blazers were still expected to win. Now, that was just someone else's opinion - but the reason I even remember that, was that I felt/feel the same way. I personally had this game marked down as a "highly probable" win for UAB since the first time I went through the schedule. While I like the job their coach is doing, the Owls simply aren't all that talented. They're also relatively young and inexperienced on the defensive and offensive lines. Additionally, they've had a very challenging schedule, as this marks their fifth road game through the first six weeks of the schedule. Throw in the fact that they're off a heart-breaker (let game get away vs. Rice) last week and I believe that they're in a very challenging spot. While we have to go back a bit, the Blazers are 6-2-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the last nine times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. I believe they've got a number of advantages here and I expect a win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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10-05-13 | Army v. Boston College -11.5 | Top | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 101 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I've played on the Eagles twice so far this season, going 2-0 in those games. I had them last week when they covered vs. Florida State and I had them in their second game, when they defeated Wake Forest by two touchdowns. I believe this will be another good spot to back them.
The Eagles' last two games have been difficult ones, to say the least. They had to play on the West Coast against USC and then had to come back to face Florida State. With all due respect to the Black Knights, Army represents a significant step down in class. While they had trouble out West, the Eagles played the Seminoles tough last week. When facing lesser opposition, they won both previous home games by double-digits. While they weren't able to score the outright upset, the Eagles played the Noles considerably tougher than they have in recent seasons, showing vast improvement from last year. Andre Williams ran 28 times for 149 yards for the Eagles. QB Chase Rettig completed 19 of 29 passes for 197 yards and a career-high four touchdowns. Florida State's Kenny Shaw said this of the Eagles: ''They came out firing. They came out playing better than we expected. I give them big ups for that." Now, the Eagles get to face another team which defeated them last year. It was almost exactly a year ago to the day (10/6/12) that Army upset them by a score of 34-31. I feel that it will provide another excellent chance for the Eagles to show that they're improved - and this time, that improvement should translate to a victory. There were a lot of low points last season. The Army game was right there with the worst of them though. It wasn't a blowout loss, as the Eagles lost by only three. However, it was their only "upset" loss and it came against a team which finished with only two total wins.. Every other loss on the season came when they were underdogs. I believe the Eagles will have payback on their minds. Army is off an impressive win vs LA Tech at the Cotton Bowl. Listed as underdogs, the Knights won by a score of 35-16. However, before getting too carried away about that victory, keep in mind that the Knights' previous game was a 25-11 loss vs. Wake Forest - a team BC defeated. The Knights' previous road game was a 40-14 blowout loss at Ball State. They've been brutal in true road games in recent seasons. Note that the Knights didn't play back-to-back road games last season. They did once the previous season but there was a bye in between those games. So, playing a "neutral site" game followed by a road game, is somewhat new territory for them. The Eagles have a road game at highly ranked Clemson on deck, followed by another road game (UNC) after that. That makes taking advantage of this winnable game that much more important. Wake Forest and Florida State already found out that BC is much improved. I say Army finds out the same thing Saturday afternoon, the revenge-minded Eagles pulling away for a double-digit win. 10* |
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10-05-13 | Illinois v. Nebraska -9.5 | 19-39 | Win | 100 | 94 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. I've played on the Illini twice this season. I had them as underdogs when they hammered Cincinnati by a score of 45-17. I also had them against Washington, when they lost by 10. (I marked that one down as a push, but most won with Illinois as the line was 10.5.) So, I'm well aware what this team brings to the table. That said, I believe they're walking into trouble on Saturday afternoon.
The Huskers, who have since had a bye, racked up more than 650 yards in their last game, the first time in school history that they had more than 300 yards passing and rushing in the same game. Normally, off that type of effort, a team might want to keep playing. However, I believe that the bye came at a good time. It provided an opportunity to get healthy, get more work for their QBs, to work on some defensive deficiencies and to do some extra preparation for Illinois. While QB Martinez is still potentially less than 100% and with Pelini having stated he won't play until he's 100%, both Tommy Armstrong and Ron Kellogg are more than capable. (They combined to go 20-of-25 passing for 305 yards and two touchdowns against South Dakota State.) Armstrong ran five times for 38 yards against South Dakota, contributing to Nebraska's 355 overall. He give the Huskers a true option presence and another dimension to the running game. Pelini said this of Armstrong and Kellogg: "I feel confident about both of those quarterbacks. I felt confident going into the last game, and I feel no different now. I feel even better than I did before, and I felt pretty good then. I have a lot of confidence in those guys. I think they |
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10-05-13 | Rutgers v. SMU +6 | 55-52 | Win | 100 | 94 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SMU. While they've gotten off to a tough start, I believe the Mustangs have an excellent shot at an upset here.
True, the Mustangs are 1-3 SU. However, consider that their last two games came at TCU and at Texas A@M. Their other loss was vs. Texas Tech. In other words, it isn't like the Mustangs expected to be 4-0 at this point. They have yet to lose a game from outside their state though and I look for them to be confident coming into this one. While the Knights did have a bye to get healthy, Rutgers' injury list is still considerably longer than SMU's. Among the injured players are running back Paul James and linebacker Jamal Merrell, a key player for the defense. The Knights, who are 0-1 SU on the road this season and who could easily get caught looking ahead to Louisville, are 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 9* |
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10-03-13 | Texas -7.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -106 | 60 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. I won with the Longhorns in their last game and I believe that this will be another good spot to back them.
The Longhorns entered their last game off back-to-back bad losses. Their dreams of a national title were already shot. Many were calling for Mack Brown's head, lamenting about the demise of the program. Needless to say, the win over K-State was huge. One big win can change a lot. The Longhorns have now regained some of their swagger and confidence. They're 1-0 in Big 12 play and they know their dream of winning the conference is still alive. Keep in mind that this is an experienced and talented Texas team, one which had really big hopes entering the season. In addition to the "W" in the conference standings and the emotional lift, there were a lot of positives gained on the field in beating the Wildcats. The defense showed vast improvement in its second game under new coordinator Robinson. The running game really got going. Backup QB Case McCoy got more work. When off a big win, teams often like to keep playing. However, I believe having a bye came at a good time for the Longhorns and I look for them to benefit from it. Its given them some time to get healthy, while also allowing some extra time to prepare. Note that they're 5-1 ATS their last six off a bye. There are still a few concerns. QB Ash is still being evaluated and may not be able to go. Linebacker Jordan Hicks got hurt last game and is out for the season. Starting middle linebacker Steve Edmond is out for the first half, due to a targeting penalty. In my opinion, the Longhorns have the talent to overcome that adversity though; I don't believe Iowa State has the type of team which can take advantage. It seems likely that Texas won't rush Ash back. While McCoy is more 1-dimensional than Ash, he can be an effective game manager, the type of QB capable of beating the likes of Iowa State. After the win over K-State, Brown had this to say: "There were parts of the team I expected to see and expect to see for the rest of the year. This can be a really good football team. I don't think this team will let up. We need to get healthy, but there are no excuses. Just keep your mouth shut and go play. We need to win." Whether its Ash of McCoy, the I look for Brown's team to do just that. 10* |
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09-28-13 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +15 | Top | 45-33 | Win | 100 | 35 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS. Its true that the Aggies were very good on the road last year. However, this is a new year and this is their first road game of the season. I expect them to have their hands full.
The Razorbacks haven't forgotten that the Aggies embarrassed them 58-10 last year. I expect them to show up an extremely motivated team. True the Razorbacks remain young at a few key positions. They aren't without talent though. They've also got a much better coach this year though and the secondary is more experienced - they should be able to deal with Manziel somewhat more effectively. Of course, stopping Manziel completely is no easy task. The best way to limit him is to keep him on the sidelines. That goes hand-in-hand with the ball control type of offense that Bielema wants from Arkansas. Not only does Bielema's crew want to dominate time of possession, they'll be up against an Aggie run defense that should allow them to do just that. In fact, you might be surprised to learn that the Aggies are giving up 218 rushing yards per game, good for 106th in the country. Opposing backs are averaging 5.9 yards per run against them. Even Rice ran for more than 300 yards against them. Although they ran for only 101 yards last week, the Razorbacks ran for 292, 333 and 258 yards in their first three games. While the Aggies are off a big win, note that they had more than 100 yards of penalties and missed three extra point attempts. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 10* |
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09-28-13 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -14 | 0-25 | Win | 100 | 35 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. The Tide have won 11 straight meetings against the Rebels at Tuscaloosa. I expect that streak to continue in convincing fashion on Saturday.
While the betting public typically loves a #1 seed, particularly when its a team like Alabama, I feel the Tide are offering real value here, the line having dropped from its opener. The back-to-back ATS losses have helped in that area. Keep in mind that the Tide were laying 31.5 points against the Rebels last year, 27.5 the previous season. Note that the Tide are 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they were favored in the 10.5 to 21 range.They're also 7-1 ATS (8-0 SU) in weeks 5 though 9, the past couple of years. The Rebels have been putting points on the board and running the ball well. However, the Tide have held two of their three opponents to fewer than 280 total yards and they gave up just 51 on the ground last week. While they've still tallied 35, 49 and 31, this week, the Tide figure to make a real effort to put points on the board. Note that the Tide played last week without top receiver Amari Cooper and guard Anthony Steen due to injuries as Saban held them out in preparation for this game. Ultimately, I expect a double-digit win and a wake-up call for Ole Miss. 9* |
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09-28-13 | LSU v. Georgia -3 | Top | 41-44 | Push | 0 | 101 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. The Bulldogs have played a brutal schedule. Prior to last week's easy game (45-21 win vs. North Texas) they had to take on South Carolina and Clemson. Those teams were ranked #8 and #6 when they faced them. Now, they take on #6 LSU. That makes them only the third team in the BCS era to face three top 10 opponents in their first four games. While beating LSU is almost never easy, I believe the Bulldogs will be up for the task. The Bulldogs know that if they can win this one, that they're right back in the hunt for a trip to the National Championship game. I believe that the two early challenges will serve them well here. LSU has cruised through the first four games, going 4-0 SU. This year's team suffered heavy personnel losses though. The Tigers had a school-record eight defensive players drafted and they'll have four new starters on the defensive line. At the beginning of the season, defensive coordinator John Chavis noted: ''Obviously, the number of guys that we lost last year isn't usual." The Tigers, who have failed to cover their last two, now take a serious step up in class. I expect some of last season's personnel losses to finally catch up with them. The Bulldogs haven't forgotten about a 42-10 beating the Tigers gave them back in December of 2011, at the SEC Title game. I say its payback time on Saturday afternoon. 10* personal favorite |
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09-28-13 | Florida State v. Boston College +21.5 | Top | 48-34 | Win | 100 | 101 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I successfully backed the Eagles when they beat Wake Forest. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so. Needless to say, the Seminoles are much tougher than the Demon Deacons. Still, they're also laying more than three touchdowns. I believe that's asking too much of them. True, the Eagles got blown out (35-7) in their last game. However, that was at USC and they've since had a bye week to recover. Note that they're getting considerably more points this week than they were against the Trojans, despite now playing at home. They're 2-0 SU here on the season, both wins by double-digits. While they did cover (vs. Bethune Cookman) last week, the Seminoles are still only 5-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, after winning two or more consecutive games. While it may not necessarily give them the best chance at the outright win, I believe BC's conservative mindset lends itself well to keeping this one close. Coach Steve Addazio noted: "We have to play great defense, get field position and run the ball well." With their perfect record, with big games vs. Maryland and Clemson on deck and having embarrassed the Eagles each of the past couple of seasons, I believe that it will be easy for the 'Noles to go through the motions a bit here. On the other hand, I expect the Eagles to be absolutely focused on the task at hand and for that to lead to at least a cover. 10* |
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09-28-13 | South Alabama +19 v. Tennessee | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTH ALABAMA. I don't believe the Volunteers are currently good enough to be laying this many points, in this situation, against this team.
The Vols are off back to back double-digit losses, getting outscored 90-36. True, those games were both on the road and they came against the likes of Oregon and Florida. Still, they're not exactly full of confidence and swagger. Off those two big games and with games against Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama up next, it would be easy to look past, or overlook, South Alabama. That could prove costly though. The Jaguars are 2-1 overall, off back to back upsets and are 1-0 in their conference. Their lone loss came by a single point. Last week's win was of the come-from-behind variety, giving them some positive momentum coming in. While this will be his toughest test yet, South Alabama QB Ross Metheny seems to be getting stronger with each game. Off an 11 of 15 effort, the senior is now 42 of 62 for 595 yards and four TD passes. He's also rushed for 99 yards and three scores. The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS their last 10 road lined games. During that time, the Vols are 6-10-1 ATS at home. The Jaguars have had an extra week to prepare. Off their bye last year, they were a 20.5 point road underdog and lost by only seven, holding an edge in time of possession, first downs and total yards. I look for them to again be more competitive than expected. 9* |
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09-26-13 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 57 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. I won with the Yellow Jackets last week. This week, however, I feel that the value lies the other way.
The Hokies haven't been very good at the betting window the last couple of seasons and they're already off to a slow start in that area this year. That has many bettors hesitant to back them. This, in turn, has helped to create solid line value. The Hokies may be 0-2-2 ATS. However, keep in mind that they're also 3-1 SU and 3-0 SU their last three games. Their only loss all season came against Alabama. They haven't been dominant but they've found a way to win. True, facing the Yellow Jackets' unique offense on short rest and off a triple OT game isn't probably ideal. However, to compensate the Hokies spent their past several Sunday practices on G-Tech preparation. Virginia Tech senior defensive tackle Derrick Hopkins said this of adjusting to G-Tech's offense: "It's not a tough adjustment. Most guys have been preparing for it a long time, so it's just like second nature kind of. We know what to expect." Note that VT scout team quarterback T.J. Shaw has played the role of the Yellow Jackets' quarterbacks for four consecutive years on Georgia Tech game week. While the Hokies have had some kicking issues the past couple of games, they'll get senior kicker Cody Journell back from suspension. Prior to an off game vs. ECU, Journell had made 36 of 44 career fg's. Note that the last time that V-Tech played a Thursday game on short rest was way back in 2006, when the Hokies upset #10 Clemson. Last year's game was decided by three points, a 20-17 win for the Hokies. The 2011 meeting here saw the Hokies win by 11. Beamer has said repeatedly he wants his Hokies to "be good" by the start of ACC play. I believe they've got a real shot at the upset here and expect them to be "good enough" to earn at least a cover. 10* |
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09-21-13 | Kansas State v. Texas -6 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 115 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Longhorns have dropped two in a row, getting beaten up in the process. Fans are jumping off the bandwagon and/or calling for Mack Brown's head. Those results and that sentiment have kept the line below a touchdown here. I believe that's offering plenty of value with what I expect to be a very dangerous team.
The Longhorns are still very talented and they still believe. Remember, this team returned 19 starters from a team that won nine last year. Sunday, the day after the loss to Ole Miss, a group of seniors addressed the team, saying how much they still wanted to leave with the conference title. True, K-State has had the Longhorns' number in recent seasons. The Wildcats didn't do themselves any favors, in my opinion, when Tre Walker stated that Texas lays down when times get tough. Texas safety Adrian Phillips had this to say about that: "Its basically a slap in the face. You don |
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09-21-13 | Louisiana-Lafayette -5.5 v. Akron | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on UL LAFAYATTE. I like how this one sets up for the road team. The Ragin' Cajuns had some experience against good teams, losing at Arkansas and Kansas State. Then, stepping down significantly in class, they crushed Nicholls 70-7. They set numerous school offensive records in that game and come in on a high, with positive momentum.
That's not the case for the Zips. Akron played a great game last week, very nearly upsetting Michigan. To some so close to pulling off the miracle, only to lose, can be tough. An emotional letdown wouldn't surprise. Akron isn't good enough to not bring its "emotional A Game." Not against a team which just put 70 points on the board, one which has the best offense in its conference and in its school's history. Keep in mind that the Zips lost by 31 in their opener and then barely beat James Madison in their second game, winning by only two and giving up 498 total yards. With that ATS loss, they're 4-9 ATS at home the past couple of seasons. That includes a 1-2 ATS mark as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. The Cajuns couldn't pull off the upset in either of their first two road games but this is still a team with very big expectations and plans for the year. None of those plays include a loss here. I expect a double-digit win. 10* |
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09-21-13 | Tennessee v. Florida -17 | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. The poor Volunteers. Last week, they had to contend with Oregon. (They were blown out 59-14.) This week, they take on a hungry Florida Gators team, one which almost always gives them trouble.
The Gators are 8-0 their last eight against the Vols. Throw in the fact that the Vols are 1-23 their last 24 games (0-17 L17) against Top 25 teams and one can imagine that even Tennessee fans might be a little nervous. While the line might seem a little high, keep in mind that the last six games in this series have all been decided by double-digits and by an average of 19. Note that the Vols are 2-10 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons. While Tennessee was getting destroyed by Oregon, Florida was resting with a bye week. That gave QB Driskel an extra week to heal. He's expected to be fine. On the other hand, the Vols are unsure who even will play QB for them. I expect another blowout win for the Gators. 10* SEC GOM |
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09-21-13 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech -6 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 107 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. The Yellow Jackets have owned the Tar Heels in recent years. I don't see that changing this season. The Jackets have destroyed a pair of lesser teams and come in loaded with confidence. They followed up a 70-0 win over Elon with a 38-14 road win at Duke. They ran for 368 yards and 344 yards.
Last season, the Jackets won 68-50 at UNC. This one likely won't be as high-scoring as that one. (Although you never know.) However, with an O/U line of 60 and a pair of capable, albeit different, offenses - we will see some points. UNC lost by 17 at South Carolina and then responded with a 20 point win at Middle Tennessee State. The Tar Heels allowed the Gamecocks to gain 228 yards on the ground and then Middle State ran for 158 (401 overall) yards against them. I see them having real trouble stopping the G-Tech attack, one which ran for 380 yards against them last season. This year's Tech offense is arguably even more dangerous - or at least more difficult to prepare for. In the game against Duke, the Jackets broke out some new formations and were throwing for TDs. UNC's Tim Jackson said this of Paul Johnson and G-Tech throwing the ball: "I feel like they did it just because they could, honestly. Another wrinkle for you to prepare for. I'm not sure if they're even going to run that against us, but it just gives you another reason to prepare for them, another 30 minutes that you have to spend watching film on their formations. Let's throw four times and make them prepare for the pass when we're really going to run the ball,"' he added, saying of Johnson: "Dude's smart. He knows what he's doing." While they had a bye last week, the Tar Heels are 0-2 SU/ATS off a bye the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, they're 1-5 ATS as underdogs, 0-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. They'd dearly love to avenge last year's loss, I just don't feel they'll be up to the task. The Jackets are 8-2 ATS the past couple of years in September. During that stretch, they're 4-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range and 1-0 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. I feel they'll score enough for the win and cover. 9* breakfast club |
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09-20-13 | Boise State v. Fresno State -3 | Top | 40-41 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on FRESNO STATE. Many aren't accustomed to seeing Boise State listed as an underdog, particularly against a team they have dominated, like Fresno State. Not surprisingly, the line dropped from its opener. I believe the Bulldogs are favored for good reason though and I feel this game provides an excellent opportunity for them to get some payback against a team which embarrassed them (57-7) here two seasons ago. This is a huge game for Fresno State. The fact that last week's game got cancelled figures to be a positive. No injuries and more time to game plan specifically for the Broncos. Note that DeRuyter wasn't around when the Bulldogs got killed here two years ago. That's noteworthy as they're 8-0 at home since he took over. With the exception of the 1-point win over Rutgers in Week 1, every victory came by double-digits. The Bulldogs recently cracked the Top 25 and now I look for them to prove that they're worthy of that ranking. *9 Main Event |
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09-14-13 | Wisconsin v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 30-32 | Loss | -106 | 101 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Badgers come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Sun Devils are favored for good reason.
The Badgers have indeed looked dominant. However, their opposition has been extremely weak. Now, they'll be playing in the heat of the desert against a far more dangerous opponent. Of course, the same can be said for Arizona State. I believe that the venue is going to play an important factor in the outcome. Note that the Badgers are only 3-6 ATS (4-5 SU) on the road the past couple of seasons. During that time, they're also 1-3 SU/ATS vs. Pac-12 teams and 0-2 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. While the prime-time start might allow the temperature to drop a bit (The National Weather Service forecast is calling for a daytime high of 103 degrees and a low of 82.) I believe it favors the home team. Keep in mind that the East Coast based Badgers have played at 12 ET in both previous games. Arizona State fans will reportedly be dressed in black - for a "blackout" and will be fired up, ready to support their team. I expect the Sun Devils, 10-2 ATS their last 12 against Big-10 teams, to ride the wave of emotion, en route to a big win. 10* Personal Favorite |
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09-14-13 | Washington v. Illinois +10 | Top | 34-24 | Push | 0 | 96 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on ILLINOIS. I've won with both these teams already this season. In Week 1, I backed the Huskies when they hammered Boise State. Last week, I backed the Illini. Listed as underdogs vs. Cincinnati, they won by a score of 45-17, racking up better than 500 yards of offense. While that did get people noticing the Illini a little, I believe that they're still flying under the radar.
As Illinois linebacker Jonathan Brown noted: "No one really gives us a chance, which is nothing new here. It's been that way almost all of my four years here and it's something we work hard every day to try and change." Needless to say, this is a very big game for the Illini. A chance to beat a nationally ranked team, while also a chance to play at Soldier's Field for the first time in nearly two decades. Beating the Huskies won't be easy, as they are indeed a talented club. Still, I really like the new Illini offense. Senior QB Nathan Scheelhaase has thrived under offensive coordinator Bill Cubit. He's already got six TD passes and is averaging 9.97 yards on every attempt. You may recall Cubit was the head coach at Western Michigan, where his teams regularly featured non-huddle spread looks. Cubit said this of his QB: "He's so intelligent. For me, it's just a pleasure to watch him go out there and have fun. For a guy who's been a little bit maligned around here, you know, right now I think he's leading the Big Ten in passing." I expect the Illini offense to again have success, enough to AT LEAST lead to a cover. 10* best bet |
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09-14-13 | Bowling Green v. Indiana -2.5 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 98 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. I'm well aware of what Bowling Green brings to the table. In fact, I successfully backed the Falcons in their opening night blowout of Tulsa. I'm also aware that they view this as a great opportunity to knock off a BCS school, which it is. That said, I feel the value lies with the home team.
Its true that the Hoosiers struggled defensively last week. That was against Navy's triple-option attack though, something they won't see again all year. Bowling Green's offense, on the other the hand, is similar to their own. I expect them to be more prepared for it and for an improved effort. Just as this is a big opportunity for Bowling Green its a very big game for Indiana. A win here and the Hoosiers are back on track with a winning record. A loss and they've dropped two straight and suddenly the whole season is in jeopardy. The Hoosiers are 3-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when the line was in the +3 to -3 range. I look for them to bounce back with a badly needed victory, covering the small number along the way. 9* breakfast club |
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09-14-13 | Louisville v. Kentucky +13.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I won with the Cardinals when these instate rivals faced each other. At the time, people didn't know quite how good Louisville is and they also didn't know quite how bad Kentucky was. The Cards easily covered. Things set up somewhat differently this year.
The Cards are again a very good team. This time, however, everyone knows it. Meanwhile, thanks to last year's record, everyone still thinks of Kentucky as a very bad team. However, I think this team is considerably better than the one which took the field last season. I backed the Cats last week and they destroyed Miami Ohio by a a 41-7 margin. The score easily could have been even more lopsided given the 675-122 edge in total yards. Obviously, the Cards are vastly superior than the RedHawks. However, that big win over Miami Ohio should give Kentucky the confidence it can play with Louisville, giving the Cats some much needed swagger. Looking back to last year and we find that Louisville was laying two touchdowns at home. This season, the line has climbed even higher than that, despite the fact that Kentucky is now playing at home and appears to be improved from last year. I feel that's providing us with excellent value and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. 9* |
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09-12-13 | TCU -3 v. Texas Tech | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU. While I often find myself on a home underdog on Thursday nights, I like the road team in this one.
With Pachall out, Boykin gets the call for the Frogs. Admittedly, he doesn't have a great record as a starter. However, he got plenty of experience last year - and he was 9 of 13 for 133 yards and two TDs after coming on last week. Note that he can also make more plays with his legs than Pachall. Note that Boykin threw for a career high 332 yards and four TDs when these teams faced each other last season, the first time they did so as Big 12 foes. While the Frogs have faced LSU, the Red Raiders have played lesser opposition. I expect that game vs. quality opposition to serve the Frogs well here. Remembers, Tech QB Mayfield is a freshman walk-on and he'll be facing a TCU defense which was best in the Big 12 last year and which returned nine starters from that unit. Texas Tech QB Kingsbury had this to say: "I |
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09-07-13 | Hawaii v. Oregon State -27 | 14-33 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OREGON STATE. Both teams lost their opener. In Hawaii's case, it was expected; the Warriors were hosting USC. That was not the case for Oregon State, which was upset by lowly Eastern Washington. The Beavers were able to score plenty of points (46) but couldn't stop Eastern Washington from doing so, giving up 49. Needless to say, the Beavers should be in a foul mood and looking to take out their frustration on someone. I believe that Hawaii should present them with an ideal opportunity to do just that.
The Warriors may have an OK defense - but the offense is weak and won't be able to keep up with the Beavers. That weak offense is exactly what the Beavers need to get feeling good about themselves again. Keep in mind that the Warriors were at the bottom of the MWC in total offense last season and that they barely moved the ball (231 total yards!) last week. This is a Hawaii team which lost its offensive coordinator and which is expected to be missing some key players on that side of the ball. While the Beavers had trouble with a mobile QB last week, they won't be seeing one here. The Warriors are only 3-8-1 ATS (2-10 SU) their last 12 on the mainland. I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time, here. 8* blue marlin |
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09-07-13 | Southern Mississippi v. Nebraska -28 | Top | 13-56 | Win | 100 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. The Huskers won their opener. However, they didn't look very good in doing so. In fact, they allowed 602 yards against Wyoming, eventually eking out a 37-34 victory - that was the second most yards ever allowed by the Huskers, in a game that they won. While that performance may keep some off the Huskers this week, I expect it to have them in an angry mood. I expect their "anger" to spell trouble for a vastly over-matched Southern Miss. squad.
The Golden Eagles have lost 13 straight games. Favored by a touchdown in their opener, they lost 22-15 vs lowly Texas State, turning the ball over six times. The score could have been even worse too, as they managed a mere 215 total yards, while allowing 400. Speaking of lopsided yardage stats, these teams met on the first day of Sept. last season. The Huskers won by 29, dominating on the ground and through the air. The total yards was 632-260. The Huskers balanced attack put up 354 yards through the air (26 of 34 with 5 TD passes fro Martinez) while rushing for another 278. Dominating stats indeed. So, why do the Eagles have to play here again? Actually, the game originally was scheduled to be played in Hattiesburg, Miss. However, the financially strapped Southern Miss athletic department struck a deal to be the visiting team in exchange for$2.1 million. While the Golden Eagles should eventually snap their losing streak, its not going to happen here - or likely for at least a few weeks. (This game is followed by road games at Arkansas and Boise State.) Nebraska can score with the best of them - and the Huskers learned a lesson last week - don't take your foot off the gas pedal. I seem them "getting healthy" against these weak foe, winning in decisive fashion. 10* personal favorite |
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09-07-13 | Miami (OH) v. Kentucky -17 | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on KENTUCKY. Both these teams lost their opener. Kentucky fell 35-26 vs. Western Kentucky. Miami Ohio was beaten 52-14 by Marshall. (Outscored 38-0 in second half!) I believe that the Wildcats are the far superior squad though and I look for them to be the team which bounces back with a big win.
While Kentucky gained better than 200 yards on both the ground and through the air and had fairly even numbers with the Hilltoppers, the Redhawks were dominated by Marshall. Miami Ohio rushed for only 74 yards (on 34 carries) while completing just 10 of 23 passes for only 165 yards. Meanwhile, the Redhawks allowed the Thundering Herd to rack up a massive 591 total yards of offense, including 304 on the ground. (That's a 591-239 disadvantage in total yards!) With last week's loss, the Redhawks are 2-7 ATS (2-7 SU) their last nine non-conference games and 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 14.5 to 21 range. Mark Stoops had this to say of last week's effort: "I think we're all disappointed because we know we could have done better. So that's where we're looking to make that improvement this week." Not only does it want to erase the bad taste from Week 1 and from last season, Kentucky knows it has to win this game, as it has tough games like Louisville, Florida and South Carolina on deck. I feel the Wildcats have advantages on both sides of the ball and expect them to "get healthy" in a big way, improving to 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they played a home game in the 52.5 to 56 range. 9* breakfast club |
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09-07-13 | Cincinnati v. Illinois +8 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 71 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on ILLINOIS. Both these teams won their opener. However, the Bearcats covered while the Illini did not. Laying 10.5, Cincy crushed Purdue by a score of 42-7. On the other hand, Illinois won by a 42-34 margin over Southern Illinois, a game they were laying 16.5 for. Those results - the fact that the Bearcats were more "impressive" have worked in our favor, in my opinion. That's helped in allowing us to get more than a touchdown with the Illinois.
While the Illini defense did surrender a few more yards through the air than they wanted, they were very stingy against the Salukis' run game. They allowed just 66 yards on the ground, on 26 carries. That should serve them well against a Cincy team which ran the ball almost twice as much (47 carries vs. 25 pass attempts) as it threw the ball last week. The Illini were also excellent on the other side of the ball, as senior QB Nathan Scheelhase threw for a career high 416 yards. Needless to say, he's happy with new offensive coordinator Bill Cubit. The Bearcats are only 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. 10* best bet |
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09-01-13 | Ohio +21 v. Louisville | 7-49 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OHIO. I began last season by successfully playing on Louisville. The Cardinals were facing instate rival Kentucky. I expected them to have a good year and also anticipated that the Wildcats would have a down year. Louisville won with relative ease.
The Cardinals did indeed have a strong season. Throw in the fact that they're led by a Heisman candidate at QB and they're very highly regarded by the betting public. While I respect the Cards and do believe that they're going to be good again, I also feel that, unlike last year, they're a little over-valued entering the season. Ohio isn't getting much respect by the oddsmakers and admittedly has a serious challenge on its hands. That said, this Bobcat team is well coached and very capable offensively. The Bobcats had nine wins last season, including four on the road. They averaged 463.3 yards per game on the road too. They're 5-3 ATS (4-4 SU) as underdogs the past couple of seasons and 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU) in non-conference action. I look for them to provide a tougher test than many will be expecting. 9* |
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08-31-13 | Northwestern v. California +6 | Top | 44-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Northwestern is coming off a dream season, one which resulted in its first bowl win in 64 years. Facing a California team which struggled last year, many will expect a blowout.
I like the changes here at Cal though starting with Dykes at head coach. Tedford hasn't been getting it done in recent years while Dykes led an LA Tech team which averaged better than 50 points a game last season. While the Wildcats have managed some opening wins on the road, they're a long way from home here. They're no longer the underdog and no longer will be surprising anyone. Instead, its Cal which is in that position, hungry to make a name for itself. As good as they've been against the number overall, the Wildcats are 0-1 ATS the only time that they were a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 range the past couple of seasons. I expect the new look Bears to be much tougher than many will be expecting, ushering in the new era by improving to 26-14 ATS the last 40 times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. 10* |
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08-31-13 | Boise State v. Washington Huskies -3.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Broncos come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Huskies are favored for good reason.
You may recall these teams meeting at Vegas last December, the Broncos winning 28-26. The rematch comes in front of a fired up Pacific Northwest crowd though against a highly experienced Husky squad, determined to get some payback. I expect the change in venue to make a big difference. While the Broncos have admittedly been tough, wherever they play, the Huskies are very hard to beat here in their home state. They're 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS here at "home" the past couple of seasons, covering five straight. Note that their home has enjoyed a $250 million dollar redecorating job. I expect them to christen it with a win and cover. 10* personal favorite |
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08-31-13 | LSU v. TCU +4.5 | 37-27 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TCU. Beating LSU is never easy. I believe TCU is catching the Tigers at the right time though.
The Tigers are always tough, well-coached and loaded with talent. This year's team suffered heavy personnel losses though. The Tigers had a school-record eight defensive players drafted and they'll have four new starters on the defensive line. Defensive coordinator John Chavis noted: ''Obviously, the number of guys that we lost last year isn't usual." Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs return a high number of starters on the defensive side of the ball, nearly have of their starters from last year. Needless to say, playing close to home (Arlington) favors the Frogs. Last year was a tough one for the Frogs and losing by a single point to Michigan St. in the bowl didn't help matters. There were a few losses like that one though and I believe this team was stronger than its record indicated. This is a huge opportunity and I look for them to come out ready to make the most of it. 10* best bet |
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08-31-13 | Austin Peay State v. Tennessee -50 | 0-45 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. With such a massive pointspread, there's obviously a major gap in talent. In this case, while it may sound funny to some, I believe the gap is even larger than the number indicates. I believe the Volunteers are going to come out looking to destroy this team and looking to keep the pedal to the metal nearly the whole way, long enough to win by more than the number at least. While its only Austin Peay, from what I understand, Butch Jones wants to make a statement. One that lets the "Vol Nation" know that this team is back. I expect this to be one of the most lopsided games of the day. *8 blue marlin
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