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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-28-12 | Hawaii v. BYU -26.5 | Top | 0-47 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU. The Cougars have treated me well so far this season. I successfully played on them when they blew out Washington State in their opener. I also successfully played against them when they lost outright at Utah. Last week, they covered for me at Boise, losing by a single point. While that was a difficult loss, Friday's matchup should provide an excellent opportunity to right the ship with a blowout win.
I successfully played against Hawaii last week. I felt Nevada, which hadn't won on the Island since the 1940s, was going to be really motivated. I also felt that the Warriors were going to be over-matched. That certainly proved to be the case. Playing in front of their own home fans, Hawaii was beaten by 45 points. It appears that Taysom Hill will be getting the start at QB. (Note that it was Hill who drove for the TD against Boise.) That's fine with me. But I'd have been fine with Nelson, too. Either way, I expect the offense to have success against a Hawaii defense which gave up 69 points and nearly 600 yards of offense. I quite like the fact that the Cougars played on 9/20 while the Warriors played a very late game on 9/22, at Hawaii. While the spread may seem high, note that BYU is 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times it was favored in the -21.5 to --31 range. The Cougars have dominated the Warriors in recent years including a 21-point win at Hawaii last season. I believe the talent gap, or at least the "playing ability," between the teams is currently even wider. Catching the Warriors on a short week and now facing them at home, I expect the Cougars to deliver an even bigger blowout. *10 |
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09-22-12 | Nevada -8 v. Hawaii | Top | 69-24 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEVADA. I watched the Wolfpack play here last Christmas Eve at the Hawaii Bowl. The Wolfpack didn't win SU but did cover the spread for me. That was against a fairly tough Southern Miss. squad though. This game comes against a less talented Hawaii squad. This time, I expect the Wolfpack to earn BOTH the win and the cover.
Having been here less than a year ago, the Wolfpack should be less susceptible to the "island's distractions." Having lost the bowl game here and having been upset by the Warriors here in 2010, I expect a very determined effort to come away with a victory this time. That 2010 Hawaii team had won three in a row when it faced Nevada and was a confident group. The Wolfpack were off to their best start since becoming an FBS program some 18 years before that - and were upset 27-21. While they did beat the Warriors by 14 (at Nevada) last year, coach Ault won't let his players forget the 2010 loss. An outright win its in only road game, against a fairly good (California) opponent, shows that the Wolfpack know how to win away from home. It was no fluke either. They ran for 220 yards while passing for 230 mark (25 0f 32!) while holding the Bears to 110 yards rushing and an 18 for 38 mark through the air. Hawaii hasn't given us much to work with yet. The Warriors were blown out by USC, as expected. Then, they blew out Lamar, also as expected. Keep in mind that an inexperienced offense is still learning new schemes while the defense returned only two starters from last season. I feel that the Wolfpack are the more complete team, on both sides of the ball. While the line has dropped to single-digits, I expect a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite |
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09-22-12 | San Jose State v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 38-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. I've already won with the Spartans twice this season. I had them when they nearly upset Stanford and again last week, when they blew out Colorado State. I expect this to be their toughest match yet though and feel that the value now lies in going against them.
Adjusting to the loss of their QB and facing a fairly tough opponent on the road, the Aztecs lost their first game, 21-12 at Washington. They did cover the spread in that one though. The offense has come to life the last two games, scoring 42 and 49 points. That should give them plenty of confidence here. Yes, the Spartans did nearly score an improbable upset at Stanford. That seems even more impressive now that the Cardinal have beaten USC. However, the fact is that SJ State was catching the Cardinal playing the first game of the season and playing their first game without Luck. The Cardinal were still "going through the motions" a bit while SJ State came ready to play. I don't expect the Aztecs to take them lightly. While the Spartans do have a winning pointspread on the road the past few seasons, a closer look shows that they're actually only 2-18 SU their last 20 road games. All but two of those 18 losses came by a minimum of three points. I mention the SU record, as this line is low enough that a SU win has a strong chance in also resulting in an ATS cover. As for the Aztecs, they're 12-5 their last 17 here and 11 of those wins came by a minimum of five points. While the offense is starting to adjust to life without Lindley, the Aztec defense ranks 15th in the country, with 8.3 tackles per loss per game. I look for homefield to prove the difference as the Aztecs improve to 17-3 SU the last 20 times that they were in the favorite role, covering the small number along the way. *9 |
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09-22-12 | Utah State v. Colorado State +13.5 | Top | 31-19 | Win | 100 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO STATE. I successfully played on Utah State a couple of weeks ago while also successfully playing against Colorado State last week. However, this time I feel that the line value and betting situation are in favor of the Rams.
When I took the Aggies, they were listed as home underdogs vs. Utah. After beating the Utes, they did a good job of avoiding a letdown and very nearly won at Wisconsin last time out. However, a narrow 2-point loss may have them wondering "what if" a little here. Either way, the Aggies are now in rather unfamiliar territory. They're 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were listed as road favorite at -10.5 to -14 point favorites. During that stretch, the Rams were 4-2 ATS as home underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range. Overall, the Aggies are a poor 4-8-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were laying points, 2-7 ATS their last nine against teams with a losing record. Last year's game was decided by a single point - and that was at Utah State. Including that 35-34 win, the Rams have won four straight in the series. This year's Colorado State squad, while still not a great team, is arguably better than last season's team and now they get to play at home. All things considered, I feel this line is generously high. *10 |
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09-22-12 | Louisville v. Florida International +13.5 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. In part to their 3-0 record, the Cardinals are laying double-digits in this game. However, I feel that the difference in talent, experience and coaching doesn't warrant such a high number; certainly not on the road.
I respect the Cardinals. In fact, I won with them in their win against Kentucky. That was a fairly impressive win, blowing out a rival by 18 points. However, that was at home and a rebuilding Kentucky team was playing its first game of the season. As predicted, the experienced Cardinals took advantage of that. With Kentucky since having lost at home to Western Kentucky, it again shows that the Wildcats aren't much of a team. The Cardinals other two wins also both came at home. One was against Missouri State - and they failed to cover. The other was against North Carolina and they won by five, giving up more than 400 yards in the process. Now, off that narrow conference win, they're playing their first road game of the season. That can be tough in itself. Yet, they're also being asked to lay two touchdowns, which is considerably tougher. FIU isn't getting much respect, thanks in part to a 1-2 record. The Golden Panthers are perhaps the best team in their conference though and that 1-2 record is a little deceiving. Both losses came on the road - the Golden Panthers dominated one statistically (vs. Duke) and rallied to cover (against a good UCF team) in the other, losing by 13. They also won their only home game. You may recall that these same two teams faced each other at Louisville last year. I won with the Under in that game and watched the Golden Panthers go on the road and limit the Cardinals to just 17 points. FIU would win that game 24-17. While Louisville admittedly has a stronger team than it did last season, I believe that the same can be said of this FIU team. Keep in mind that the Golden Panthers returned 17 starters from last year. While Louisville is well coached, I believe the same can be said of FIU, a team which went to a bowl in 2011 after closing the regular season with three straight double-digit wins. While the Cards are 4-5 ATS the last nine times that they were road favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range, the Golden Panthers are 7-4 ATS the last 11 times that they were underdogs. With last year's upset, they're also 5-1 ATS their last six against the Big East. I'll gladly grab the big points but won't be surprised if they pull off the outright win. *10 |
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09-20-12 | BYU +7.5 v. Boise State | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU. When I played against BYU last week, it wasn't because I didn't feel that the Cougars were a good team. I just felt that the value lay against them. This week, while Boise is always well-coached and talented, I feel that the value lies on the Cougars.
Everyone knows how tough the Broncos are on the blue turf. That's caught up with them at the betting window though. Even with a cover here against Miami Ohio last week, the Broncos are only 4-9 ATS here the past 2+ seasons. True, the Broncos covered in their opening week loss at Michigan State. However, they were dominated in that game (461-206 in yards) and were fortunate to get the cover. BYU crushed Washington State and its lone loss (last week's game at Utah) came down to the wire and was decided by three points. This is a team which returned 14 starters from a team which won 10 games last season. They're arguably more talented than they were in 2011. The same can't be said for the Broncos, that was evident in the game at Michigan State. Indeed, this team returned just seven starters from last year's 12- win team. The Cougars are a profitable 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. I expect them to improve on those stats Thursday. *10 |
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09-15-12 | BYU v. Utah +3.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. There were a number of reasons why I played against the Utes in their last game. None of them were because they aren't a good team. Rather, I thought that their opponent (Utah State) was better than many realized and that the line was higher than it should be.
I also noted that the Utes typically didn't fare too well in the favorite role. Here's an excerpt from the analysis of that play: "...The Utes are an ugly 23-39 ATS the last 62 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range and 3-8 ATS the last 11 times that they were laying points overall." This time, however, its the Utes which are the underdog. That's typically a much better role for them, particularly when in this range. Indeed, they're 27-12-1 ATS the last 40 times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, going a lucrative 47-26-1 ATS as underdogs over that time overall. The fact that Utah crushed BYU last season will have a lot of people wanting to back the revenge-minded Cougars here. That will surely make BYU want to win. However, the fact is that BYU also really wanted to win last year. Teams always want to badly win these instate rivalries and the added motivation that comes from revenge isn't always as significant as many believe. Of course, if BYU does happen to win big, they'll be saying that revenge was a factor. I don't expect that'll be the case though. Note that the last game here was decided by a single point. True, the Utes lost QB Jordan Wynn last time out. I don't feel that's as big a deal as many might imagine though. Even before the season, Kyle Whittingham noted this was the deepest QB rotation he'd had in eight years here. Hays will likely get the majority of the snaps but Travis Wilson could also see some snaps. Note that Hays threw three TDs in the postseason win over Georgia Tech. I respect BYU. In fact, I won with the Cougars in their opening win against Washington State. That was at home though and the Cougars were still playing the first game under a new coach. They're playing their first road game here though and it comes against a well-coached bitter rival. Most are throwing the Utes under the bus I still believe that this Utah team is very capable. They beat the Cougars 17-16 the last time that the teams met here. Another close win here won't surprise. *10 |
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09-15-12 | Colorado State v. San Jose State -10.5 | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. I won with the Spartans in their opener. Playing at Stanford, they nearly pulled off the upset. Despite the close 20-17 loss, the Spartans didn't suffer a letdown in their second game. Instead, they took care of Cal Davis. Laying 20, they won by 32. Colorado State is better than Cal Davis. But the Rams are still not a very good team. I expect another double-digit win for a Spartans team which is playing with confidence.
The Rams were able to get up for their opening game against rival Colorado. Listed as 6-point underdogs, they won 22-17. Last week's result shows this team has a long way to go though. Playing at home, the Rams loss 22-7 against N. Dakota State. The Spartans were underdogs at Colorado State last year. Yet, they never trailed the entire game and ended up winning 38-31. This year, they've got a stronger team. Its Coach MacIntyre's third season here and his best team yet. On the other hand, the Rams have a new coach in Jim McElwain. While the cupboard isn't bare, keep in mind that McElwain inherited a team that was 3-9 last season. I'll repeat that last week's double-digit loss against N. Dakota State tells a lot about this team. Note that the Rams are just 7-22 ATS their last 29 lined games on turf. They've won just two of 11 road games the past couple of seasons, going 4-7 ATS. Despite facing less than dominant competition, the Rams offense is averaging only 231.0 ypg. They'll face a SJ State defense which ranks 18th in the nation with only 266.0 ypg allowed, despite having faced Stanford. Note that the Spartans rank 12th in the country with 9.5 tackles per loss per game. (The Rams rank 109th in that category, w/ 3.5 per game.) This is a SJ State team playing with confidence and licking its chops at the chance to climb above the .500 mark. While both teams are 1-1, they enter this game going in different directions. The Spartans, who have won three of four, (upset both Fresno and Navy to close out 2011) were better than the Rams last season. Playing at home, I expect this year's stronger team to have an even bigger advantage. *10 Personal Favorite |
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09-15-12 | Florida International +17 v. Central Florida | Top | 20-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on FIU. I believe that teams are a lot more evenly matched than is reflected in the line. Getting more than two touchdowns to work with, I feel the visiting Panthers are providing excellent value.
A look at last year's meeting between these schools shows that UCF was favored by 6 points. Yet, FIU won the game, 17-10. While we haven't necessarily seen that yet, this year's team is stronger. Keep in mind that this FIU squad entered the season as favorites to win the Sun Belt, bringing back numerous starters from last year's team. True, the Panthers have failed to cover in both games - a big part of the reason for such a generous line. However, a closer look reveals that they dominated statistically in Week 1 but lost - so, they deserved a better fate there. Last week, perhaps overestimating their opponent, the Panthers didn't dominate the way they hoped to. They did claw their way to an OT win though. That should give them some confidence here and get them pointed in the right direction. The experience of playing and winning such a close game may also serve them well here. Admittedly, this UCF team is pretty loaded. The Knights are among the most talented teams in their conference. Playing with revenge and also playing their home opener, they'll surely be fired up here. Note that the Knights are only 1-9 the last 16 years against instate opponents though. They should be happy if can just manage to win (SU) here. Dating back to last season, the Knights have seen five of six games decided by 17 or fewer points. I look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting, with the Panthers improving to 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +14.5 to +21 range. *10 Best Bet |
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09-08-12 | Oklahoma State v. Arizona +11 | Top | 38-59 | Win | 100 | 60 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. I believe that the Wildcats have had this game circled. For starters, its a chance to host a nationally ranked opponent. It also gives the Wildcats a chance to see how good they really are. Additionally, they haven't forgotten that these same Cowboys whipped them each of the last two seasons. I feel that they'll be highly motivated to prove that this year will be a different story.
The Wildcats have a new coach, in Rich Rodriguez. While Rodriguez wasn't around for last year's two losses, he sure knows the significance of this game and the opportunity it provides. He's brought some new excitement to the program and I expect his players to be ready to go. True, the Wildcats failed to cover in their opener. Laying -10.5 points, they won by only seven, needing OT to do so. However, that 24-17 victory over Toledo tells only half the story. A closer look at the stats shows that Arizona actually had a commanding 624-358 advantage in total yards. However, they had two TDs called back by penalties, missed a pair of easy FGs and also turned the ball over three times. In other words, the Wildcats dominated. They just shot themselves in the foot a bit. In fact, their 624 yards was the second most in school history. While the mistakes are a bit of a concern, that's partly expected in a team's first game of the season, particularly with a new coach. I really like how the game finished. The Wildcats overcame their mistakes and won in OT. Not only does that give them confidence and positive momentum, the fact that they weren't "perfect" should make it easier to focus on Rodriguez's message this week. While the Cowboys are a well coached team, it may be a little harder for Gundy to get his message across this week. That's because his players may be patting themselves on the back a little, after an 84-0 blowout of Savannah State, thinking that every week is going to be a cakewalk. Sure, Gundy was able to give his starters some extra rest. However, they didn't necessarily learn anything from the "lopsided" win and aren't likely to benefit from it as much as Arizona will from its "close" win. Gundy had this to say of last weeks' rout: "It always concerns us because as a coach, you want to get your players enough work to where you feel like they've advanced in different areas and gotten prepared for the next week but you don't want to get them too much work to where they stress their bodies, they stress their legs or could have at times been vulnerable to some sort of an injury. We would have liked to have more work. It didn't work out that way." Everyone remembers the Cowboys crushing opponents from the past couple of seasons. And, with last week's 84-0 win, many will assume that this year will just be business as usual. However, lets not forget that this team has 10 new starters from last year's Big 12 championship team. I feel that the line is very generous (it was only 14 LY and that was at OSU and it was only 4.5 here in 2010) and I look for the revenge-minded Wildcats to step up and earn AT LEAST the cover. *10 Revenge GOY |
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09-08-12 | Akron v. Florida International -23.5 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. The Panthers didn't get off to the start they wanted. While they were underdogs, they still had hoped to win at Duke. That didn't happen. However, they did play well in the loss and this is still a solid team - one which will now be playing with some anger and which is playing its home opener. Taking a significant step down in class, I expect the Panthers to bounce back with a convincing win.
The Panthers have been in back to back bowl games. Although it's Week 2, after losing at Duke, FIU knows it absolutely can't afford to mess around here, if it wants to make it three in a row. Akron's got a coach (Terry Bowden) with a recognizable last name. However, that's about all the Zips have. They've lost nine in a row, dating back to last season and were just 2-22 the last two years. They lost 56-14 vs. UCF last weekend, falling behind 35-0 out of the gate. This hasn't been a good role either. They're 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they were underdogs of greater than 21 points, 6-15-1 ATS as underdogs the last couple of seasons overall. The Zips have all kinds of problems, including an inability to run and an inability to stop the run. The Zips, who averaged 2.6 yards per carry in their opener, gave up an average of 219.6 yards on the ground last season, good for 108th in the country. I guess they should feel pretty good about allowing "only" 206 rushing yards (and 4 rushing TDs) last week. Note that an already terrible defense lost perhaps its best player when linebacker Brian Wagner transferred in the offseason. A closer look at last week's stats shows that the Panthers actually outgained Duke by a 513-420 margin. In his debut as the team's full-time starter, QB Jake Medlock threw for 348 yards and two TDs, without recording an interception. All that offense didn't bother me at all last week - as I had a winning ticket on the Over in the FIU/Duke game. However, I do expect it to have a motivating effect on the Panthers defense here, as they'll look to bounce back with an improved effort. Keep in mind that this unit gave up only 19.4 points per game and led the Sun Belt with 2.7 sacks per contest in 2011. This year's team returned a whopping 17 starters, 10 of them on the defensive side of the ball. Not only are the Panthers upset about las week's loss, all those starters are still smarting from losing in the bowl game last year. They'll be looking to take out their anger on someone and lowly Akron should be just what the doctor ordered. The Panthers, picked to win the SBC by the leagues coaches prior to the season, dominated North Texas, 41-16, in last season's home opener. This one could easily prove more lopsided. *10 Personal Favorite |
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09-08-12 | Iowa State v. Iowa -4.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA. While I successfully played against the Hawkeyes last week, I feel that this will be an excellent spot to back them.
Playing at home and listed as +6.5 point underdogs, Iowa State won 44-41 against Iowa last season. Iowa won 35-7 the previous year, easily covering as -13 point favorites. That game was 35-0 until the Cyclones scored in "garbage time," too. Due in part to last week's results, we don't have to lay nearly as big a number with the Hawkeyes on Saturday. I feel thats providing excellent value. Keep in mind that Iowa is 12-4 ATS the last 16 times that it was listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range. While I'm happy that they've helped us in terms of getting a more reasonable line, I'm not too worried about last week's results. There can be a bit of rust in Week 1 and Iowa was up against a Northern Illinois team which had the longest winning streak in the country. That game was also played at Soldier Field, which could have been a little intimidating for a young team. The Hawkeyes did still win the game and they did it in such a manner that they should be able to bring some positive momentum into Saturday. Now back "home," the Hawkeyes will be confident. It should be noted that they've won 11 straight home openers and that those victories have come by an average of 33 points per game. The Hawkeyes will be wearing "throwback" uniforms for this game, commemorating the 1921-22 back-to-back Big Ten championship teams that went a combined 14-0. Expect an inspired effort from the revenge-minded Hawkeyes, as they knock off their rivals and cover the small number along the way. *9 |
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09-08-12 | Miami (Fla) v. Kansas State -6.5 | Top | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on K-STATE. Some will likely see the Hurricanes getting this many points and be quick to back the underdog. I feel the Wildcats are favored by this many points for good reason though.
These teams met last September, at Miami. The Hurricanes were favored by double-digits but the Wildcats won outright. This year's K-State team should be better and now get to play at home. While the Hurricanes returned 10 starters from last season and appear to be in a bit of a rebuilding year, the Wildcats returned 14 starters from a team which won 10 games last season. Among the returning starters is QB Klein, who threw for 3000+ yards and whopping 40 TDs last season. The Wildcats return all the key components of their running game along with an experienced offensive line. Additionally, their receiving corps is more experienced than it has been the past few seasons. The Hurricanes are playing their second straight road game, not an easy spot right out of the gate. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are playing their second straight at home. The Wildcats are 7-5-1 ATS (13-3 SU) the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion Saturday afternoon. *9 |
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09-07-12 | Utah v. Utah State +7 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. There is no denying that Utah has had its way with its instate rival this millennium. Indeed, the Utes have won 12 straight meetings, most of them by a comfortable margin. Utah should be pretty good again this year, too. That said, I feel that the gap has narrowed between these teams and that the Utes will have a much tougher fight on their hands than they, or many others, will expect.
While the WAC may not be as tough as it once was, the Aggies are one of the best teams left in it. They were 7-5 last regular season, before losing by a single point in their bowl game, their first since 1997. A closer look at their five regular season losses shows that only one came by greater than a touchdown - and that was on the road at Fresno State. Overall, including the bowl game, the Aggies' six losses came by an average of just 4.33 points. They lost by only four points at Auburn, which was ranked in the Top 25 at the time. They also lost by only three points at BYU, while beating Nevada. Overall, the Aggies saw no fewer than TEN of their 2011 games decided by seven points or less. In other words, this team is no stranger to playing close games. Having battled the likes of BYU and Auburn while also "playing in the postseason," the Aggies won't be intimidated by Utah, the way that they might normally be. It looked like Utah State QB Kennedy, part of a terrific tandem with Chuckie Keeton, might be hurt last week. However, he'll be ready to go - the "stinger," which was to his non-throwing shoulder, reportedly proved less serious than originally feared. Either way, Keeton was 22 for 25 for 304 yards and two touchdowns last week - and he can run too. Utah coach Whittingham acknowledged that Keeton's ability to both run and throw presents a "headache" for defensive coordinators. He went on to say this of Keeton: "He is a tremendous athlete with a good arm who moves well in the pocket." The Utes are an ugly 23-39 ATS the last 62 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range and 3-8 ATS the last 11 times that they were laying points overall. Meanwhile, the Aggies are an outstanding 14-5-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points, not surprising given their tendency to play close games. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get with the highly motivated home underdog. *10 Main Event |
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09-06-12 | Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Its safe to say that not many people imagined Pittsburgh losing its opener to Youngstown State. Laying -18, the Panthers lost by 14. Ouch! I believe that result has worked in our favor though.
With the Panthers checking in at 0-1, many are wanting to back the Bearcats. As a result, we're getting more than three points to work with. Considering that these teams saw last year's game decided by just a field goal, that could well prove significant. Additionally, I expect last week's shocker to serve us a wake-up call to the Panthers. They were embarrassed and it should have been easy for new coach Chryst to get his message across in practice this week. I expect a highly motivated effort. The cupboard was far from bare for Chryst, former offensive coordinator at Wisconsin, as Pittsburgh returned numerous starters. That's not really the case for the Bearcats, who suffered more offseason losses. Note that Cincinnati was just 5-9 ATS in conference play the last couple of seasons. During that time, the Panthers were 11-3 ATS in conference play. While Pittsburgh has had a game to work out the kinks, the Bearcats have not. I won't be surprised if that works to the Panthers' advantage. The Panthers won 28-10 the last time they were here. I'll grab the points but won't be at all surprised by another outright Pittsburgh win. *10 |
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09-02-12 | Kentucky v. Louisville -13 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. It goes without saying that these teams don't like each other. Both teams come in with something to prove. With the Cardinals laying double-digits, its also assumed that they are the stronger team in this matchup, this year. While its true that these type of "rivalry" games aren't always won by the team which is stronger on paper, in this case, I feel that the large line is justified.
The Wildcats finished below .500 last season. A punchless offense was a big part of the problem. At less than 260 yards per game, they were 118th in total offense. While the Cats do return many of their skill players, scoring again figures to be an issue, particularly against what should be a stingy Louisville D. Playing without tailback Josh Clemons doesn't figure to help matters. In 2011, Louisville was second in the Big East in total defense. The Cardinals were 23rd in the country in total defense and 10th in rushing defense. At home, they allowed a mere 15.8 points per game. They return the bulk of last year's defensive starters. The Cardinals won 24-17 at Kentucky last season, covering as -4 point favorites. That was early (Sept 17) in the season. They got stronger late in the season, winning five of their final six. Big East Freshman of the Year Teddy Bridgewater came into his own. Obviously, Kentucky plays in the tougher conference. Knowing this and perhaps also knowing that the road team has fared well in this series in recent seasons, many may be tempted to take the points. However, they should keep in mind that the Wildcats are 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 range, including an 0-2 mark as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. The Cardinals had a commanding 181 to 35 advantage on the ground in last year's game. I believe they're better on both sides of the ball and I expect them to ultimately pull away for a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite |
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09-01-12 | Tulsa -1 v. Iowa State | Top | 23-38 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULSA. It would be fairly easy to make a case for the home team. The Cyclones hail from the "bigger" school and they also from the bigger conference. They've traditionally had success in home openers while Tulsa has traditionally struggled in road openers. The Cyclones are even a very slight underdog to boot. Those factors should have many tempted to back Iowa State. However, in my opinion, all that is trumped by Tulsa being the stronger team.
The Golden Hurricane had a very difficult early season schedule last season. Three of their first four games came against Top 10 teams (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State) including two of those games coming on the road. Those three teams ranked #1, #4 and #8 when Tulsa played them. So it wasn't all that surprising that the Golden Hurricane were 1-3 after their first four games. They didn't lose another game the rest of the entire regular season, until falling against Houston in the CUSA title game and then again against BYU (by only 3) in their bowl game. That's a lot more than Iowa State can say though. The Cyclones are off back to back losing seasons and have now finished below .500 in five of the last six seasons. During that stretch, they are a combined 27-47. Last year's team did have a couple of memorable wins - regulars will recall we won with the Cyclones when they beat Oklahoma State outright. Still, it was another losing year - and this figures to be more of the same. The Golden Hurricane have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 "road" games and they're 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as a road favorite - although in this case, the line is not likely to come into play. While the Golden Hurricane are 4-2 SU/ATS the last few seasons when playing a game where the line ranged from the -3 to +3, the Cyclones are 0-2 SU/ATS when doing the same. While last year's tough start was practically inevitable, Tulsa has visions of starting 8-0 this season. Whether or not the Golden Hurricane can accomplish that goal remains to be the seen, however, I look for them to at least take the first step on Saturday afternoon. *10 Annihilator |
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09-01-12 | Iowa v. Northern Illinois +9.5 | Top | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. This game will be played at Soldier Field. These teams met here on this exact day, five years ago. The Hawkeyes eked out a cover on that day. Laying -12, they won by 13 points - a 16-3 victory. However, a closer look reveals that the stats weren't quite as lopsided as the score. The Hawkeyes did enjoy a solid edge on the ground but the Huskies threw for nearly 100 more yards. NIU ended up missing a 44 yard field goal while also throwing three interceptions on the Iowa side of the field. I believe that this year's teams enter the season on a more equal footing than they did for that game five years ago. (NIU finished only 2-10 in 2007!) Yet, the pointspread isn't that much different. That being the case, I feel that the underdog Huskies are providing excellent value.
Northern Illinois enters the season on a red hot run. In fact, including their bowl win, the Huskies have won nine straight games. They last lost in October 2011 and that was by only seven points. This team has had only had one loss of greater than seven points since the opening game of the 2010 season. That game last year vs. Wisconsin, the #7 team in the country at the time. While they do lost QB Chandler Harnish - now known at Mr. Irrelevant - they do bring back a number of starters, particularly on defense. Unlike the 2007 team, this year's Huskies should run the ball on Saturday afternoon. They finished 12th last year in rushing at 234.1 yards per game, while also scoring more than 38 points per game. QB Jordan Lynch is considered a better runner than Harnish, too. Kirk Ferentz is still calling the shots in Iowa. However, the Hawkeyes have new coordinators on both offense and defense and are a relatively inexperienced team. The Huskies are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, winning two of those games outright. They believe they can win this one outright and I expect them to keep it close the entire way. *10 Best Bet |
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08-31-12 | San Jose State +26 v. Stanford | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. With Andrew Luck running the show, the Cardinal have been very good the past couple of seasons. Harbaugh left after a very good 2010 season and the team lost a number of key players. Yet, they became even more profitable under Shaw, failing to cover only twice all season. Luck is now with the Colts though and the team has several other key losses. I don't expect such a dominating pointspread record for Stanford this year and feel that this initial line is a little on the high side.
In addition to losing Luck, the Cardinal will be without tight end Coby Fleener, who led the team with 10 touchdown receptions a year ago. He was a second-round pick by the Colts, Also, offensive linemen David DeCastro and Jonathan Martin were selected in the first and second rounds, respectively. The Stanford defense does return seven starters. However, one of those is Shayne Skov and he's been suspended for this game. You may recall that these teams also met in last season's opener. Yes, the Cardinal won by a commanding 57-3 margin. However, that was with Luck running the show. It should also be noted that the score was a little misleading. The Cardinal benefitted from excellent field position, as three of their second quarter scoring drives came from 22 total yards of offense. In fact, the Spartans enjoyed an edge in total yards of offense in the first half, while also recording one more first down. After the debacle vs. Stanford, the Spartans really came together. While they went only 5-6 the rest of the way, none of those other six losses came by greater than 13 points. In fact, the only other loss of greater than 10 points came at BYU - and that was by only 13. Each of their final four games were decided by a field goal or less including victories vs. Navy and Fresno State to close out the season. While they did lose some players, this is still arguably McIntrye's most talented team. He's played at Alabama and Stanford in his first two games of his first two seasons - so he knows what to expect here. Last year's game here notwithstanding, McIntyre's teams have been excellent in the underdog role. I look for the Spartans to keep this one closer than most will be expecting, as life without Luck proves slightly more difficult than imagined. *10 |
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08-30-12 | Washington State v. BYU -11.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU. Perhaps the biggest story attached to this game is the return of Mike Leach to the sidelines. The former Texas Tech coach had plenty of success, prior to getting run out of town in 2009. He'll look to some excitement back to Washington State. Given his track record, the Cougars are likely to improve under Leach's watch. However, this is a very tough test for them and I don't expect that improvement to be immediate.
While the cupboard is not bare, in terms of talent, the Cougars are learning a brand new offense. Washington State should get decent QB play and does have a bigtime receiver in Marquess Wilson. He'll surely be a big part of the offense. However, BYU is well aware of Wilson - and after Wilson, the rest of the supporting cast has some question marks. The defense gave up more than 400 yards per game last season and now switches from a 4-3 to a 3-4. That may also take some time. I feel that BYU has an advantage on both the offensive and the defensive line. I look for BYU to have success exploiting WSU's suspect front seven. BYU, a well coached team with an established system, will be hungry to start off well after a sluggish start last season. The Cougars have a senior quarterback, a talented offensive line and a dynamic pair of big and fast receivers. (Hoffman and Apo are 6'4" and 6'3".) The defense is also talented and experienced. Keep in mind that BYU closed out last season by winning its final three games by a combined score of 42-14, prior to knocking off Tulsa (by 3) in the bowl. The Cougars outscored teams by an average score of 32.9 to 18.3 here last season, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game here. Note that the margin of victory is greater than two touchdowns. (Washington State was outscored by an average score of 36 to 22.4, a margin of greater than 13 per game. Leach, a BYU alum, gets a rude welcome back to the game. I expect the home team to pull away for a convincing win. *10 Personal Favorite |
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01-09-12 | Alabama +1 v. LSU | Top | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 295 h 7 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. As you are surely aware, this is a rematch of an earlier meeting, at Alabama. While some may not like it, I believe its the best matchup. (Lets not forget that Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State.) More importantly, like it or not, I believe Alabama will prove that it belongs to be here. Many will likely point to the fact that LSU won at Tuscaloosa and they'll be quick to back the undefeated Tigers at New Orleans. That game was hardly a "blowout" though. If you recall, it went to Overtime, a 9-6 victory for the Tigers. A look at the stats reminds us that Alabama had a 295 to 239 edge in total yards. The Tide had a slight edge in time of possession and had more first downs. While LSU punted six times, Alabama did so only twice. Missed field goals (Alabama missed four) were the difference. I agree with Alabama coach Nick Saban when he said the following though: "This could be a totally different type of game. There's so many good players on both sides of the ball for both teams. There's so much opportunity for this game to play out completely different and have a completely different flavor than the first game." Note that Alabama still leads 45-25-5 in this rivalry, dating all the way back to 1895. While LSU had a very slight edge in overall points scored (38.5 to 36), keep in mind that Alabama averaged 433.4 yards to LSU's 375.3. Also, on the road, Alabama averaged 36.6 points and 424.6 yards. LSU, when playing on the road, averaged 35.3 points and 331 yards. (Of course, that's due in no small part to the fact that LSU had to play Alabama on the road.) More importantly, lets not forget that Alabama still has the #1 ranked defense in the country and that ALL 11 of its victories came by at least 16 points. The Tide allowed 191.3 yards per game. The Tigers allowed 252.1. We don't always get second chances in life and teams rarely get them (at this stage) in football. The Tide get one here and I expect them to make the most of it. *10
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01-03-12 | Michigan v. Virginia Tech +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on V-TECH. I was happy to see the Hokies get blown out by Clemson in their last game, as I had a big play on Clemson in that one. However, I fully expect them to bounce back with a MUCH better effort here. Prior to the Clemson loss, the Hokies had won seven straight and 11 of 12. In fact, Clemson was the only team to beat them all year. Admittedly, the rest of the schedule wasn't all that challenging - however, the Hokies took care of business, beating the likes of Virginia, UNC, Miami, Georgia-Tech and Wake Forest. Michigan did close out the season with wins over Ohio State and Nebraska, which will stand in bettors' memories - like the Hokies' loss to Clemson. However, before that, their biggest wins were Ilinois and Notre Dame - and they were very fortunate to beat Notre Dame. They lost by double-digits against Michigan State and by eight vs. Iowa. So, the Wolverines' schedule wasn't all that tough either. Both teams should be motivated to win. However, I really feel that the season-ending loss to Clemson has left a bad taste in the mouths of the Hokies and I expect them to be a little more "hungry" here. Michigan, on the other hand, is just 2-7 ATS its last nine, when off a conference win. The Wolverines are an awful 5-15 ATS against teams with a winning record the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Hokies were 10-7 ATS (12-5 SU) against teams with a winning record. The Wolverines are 3-4 ATS the past few seasons when playing with a line in the +3 to -3 range. During that stretch, the Hokies are 4-1 SU/ATS when doing so. I expect them to be the team which "gets the cash" once again. *10
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01-02-12 | Stanford +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on STANFORD. Regulars will recall that I had a big winning play against Stanford when the Cardinal faced California. However, that play was based (in large part) on the fact that I felt Stanford would be "disappointed," due to having lost (vs. Oregon) the previous week. That indeed seemed to be the case. The Cardinal did win. However, they only won by three points, a game in which they were laying -17.5. The Cardinal have had plenty of time to recover from that disappointment though and I feel that they'll be completely "up" for this game. Regulars will also recall that I had a big play against Oklahoma State when the Cowboys lost to Iowa State. I had a number of reasons for playing against the Cowboys in that game. Mostly, however, I felt that they were simply laying too many points. I'll admit that I didn't actually expect the Cowboys to lose outright in that game. However, that's exactly what happened. To their credit, the Cowboys responded to that setback by blowing out Oklahoma in their next game - no small feat. However, as you know, that still wasn't enough to get them into the National Championship game. The Cowboys feel like they received the short end of the stick. Unlike Stanford, they're "disappointed" to be here. I expect that to have a negative effect on them. In addition to the fact that Stanford is happier to be here, I feel the Cardinal match up very well with the Cowboys and that the teams are quite evenly matched. Obviously, both have bigtime QBs. However, Luck is the much bigger NFL prospect and I feel that's for good reason. The Cowboys #1 receiver is arguably better than any of Stanford's receivers - however, Luck is so good that he makes all his receivers excellent. While Luck gets all the attention, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Cardinal should have the advantage. Stanford allowed 20.3 points per game and 19.8 on the road. The Cardinal allowed 331.1 yards per game, 328.4 away from home. On the other hand, the Cowboys allowed 25.8 points per game and 445.7 yards. While the Cowboys lost vs. lowly Iowa State, Stanford's lone loss came vs. Oregon, one of the best teams in the country. The Cowboys have been great at the betting window for a few years now. The Cardinal have been even better though. While I expect an outright win, I'll gladly grab all the points I can get! *10
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01-02-12 | Nebraska v. South Carolina -2 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I successfully played against Nebraska in last year's bowl game. The Huskers were double-digit favorites but lost outright by a score of 19-7 against Washington. I also successfully played against South Carolina in last year's bowl game. The Gamecocks were favored by three points but lost outright (26-17) against Florida State. This year, however, I'm backing the Gamecocks. For starers, I feel the Gamecocks are a better team. Playing in the SEC, they finished with 10 wins. Nebraska played in the Big-Ten but only finished with nine wins. Nebraska beat Penn State - however, that was after the scandal - and the Huskers won by only three points. They beat Iowa and Washington, Ohio State and Michigan State. However, those wins all came at home and they only covered in two of them. They were crushed by Wisconsin and Michigan (48-17 and 45-17!) and even lost at home vs. Northwestern, when laying -17.5. South Carolina beat the likes of Georgia, Navy, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Flordia and Clemson. They did get blown out at Arkansas - but not by nearly as much as Nebraska did against Michigan or Wisconsin. Their other loss (vs. Auburn) came by three points. Both teams averaged roughly 30 points per game. Nebraska scored 30.5, South Carolina scored 30.1. However, South Carolina's numbers improved on the road (31.4 ppg) while Nebraska managed only 26 on the road. Also, note that the Gamecocks averaged better than 30 points their last three games while the Huskers averaged just 18. On the other side of the ball, the Gamecocks allowed a mere 18.8 points per game and just 268.9 yards per game. That 269 ypg ranks fourth best in the country. (That includes a 133 mark against the pass, second best in the country.) Meanwhile, the Huskers allow 22.8 points per game and 350.7 yards. Those numbers climb to 27 and 367.6 on the road. The Gamecocks should have plenty of motivation. They haven't won a bowl under Spurrier AND a win here will give them the first 11 win season in school history. As defensive end Melvin Ingram noted: "Since I've been here, we haven't won a bowl game and so we're trying to go out and change that, got out and get that 11th win and make history..." All things considered, in my opinion, getting the Gamecocks at such a short number is a bargain. They're 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they played a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark their last three in that situation. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10
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01-02-12 | Penn State +7 v. Houston | 14-30 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. From a win/loss perspective, the Cougars are a much better team. Throw in the fact that many probably expect the Nittany Lions to suffer from the terrible scandal at their school and its easy to see why Houston is so heavily favored. I feel the value is fully with the underdog Nittany Lions though. I feel that they'll be extremely motivated by what happened at their school. Additionally, I feel that the difference in records is deceiving, as Houston's record has been largely built up against mediocre (or bad) teams, while Penn State has had to face some legit top tier opponents. While this is still a January bowl, the Cougars may be somewhat disappointed to be here, as they had a perfect record before getting trashed by Southern Miss in their final regular season game. I just watched the Golden Eagles in person (at the Hawaii Bowl) and they sure didn't impress me. They were somewhat fortunate to beat Nevada by seven (Wolfpack covered or pushed) but neither team looked good. Not at all. That doesn't reflect too well on Houston. So, who exactly did the Cougars beat when building up their previously undefeated record? Well, noboby. Ok, they blew out the likes of Tulsa and Marshall. Big deal. Prior to the win over Southern Miss, Houston's toughest previous opponents were arguably UCLA and LA Tech (neither elite teams, both already bowl losers) and they won those games by only five combined points. I won with the Cougars when they beat UCLA, so that one didn't surprise me. Therefore, in my opinion, this will arguably be the most talented opponent that the Cougars will have faced all year. Penn State has faced the likes of Alabama, Temple, Iowa, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Yes, they were blown out by the Badgers. That game was at Wisconsin though - and the Badgers are in the Rose Bowl, based on the fact that they're a very strong team. Their only other loss by more than three points came against Alabama, a team which will soon try and prove that its the best in the country. The only other loss all season came by three points and that was vs. Nebraska. The Cougars are only 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. Their only game in that situation this season was against LA Tech this season. They were laying six and won by only one. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire as the motivated underdog shows up with a point to prove. *9
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12-31-11 | Virginia +3 v. Auburn | 24-43 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 17 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on VIRGINIA. I feel this may well turn out to be a case of which team wants to be here more. I expect that team to be Virginia. As you know, Auburn won the national title game last year. After that epic season, playing in the Chick-fil-A Bowl figures to be a real letdown. On the other hand, Virginia hasn't won a bowl game in years and figures to be thrilled to be here. Virginia senior wide receiver Kris Burd noted: "Last year at this time, I was packing it up and putting it away for the season. It's my last game coming up. It's going to be an emotional game and I'm looking forward to it." The Tigers suffered major personnel losses from last year's team. They're now without their top running back, (Michael Dyer) as he got suspended. Their QB situation is unsettled. They're also without their defensive coordinator, as Ted Roof left for UCF. Of course, even with Roof around, the Tigers have been horribly defensively all season. They allowed 29.3 points and 405.8 total yards per game, second-most in the SEC for both of those categories. While I won't call them an elite team, the Cavs are solid on both sides of the ball. Their offensive line does a good job of protecting the QB and opening lanes for their running backs. The Cavs are 3-0 SU/ATS the past few seasons, when playing with two or more day's rest. The Tigers were just 1-2 ATS. The Tigers, 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 against the ACC, were just 1-3 ATS as favorites this season. The Cavs were 3-2 ATS as underdogs, all three ATS wins also resulted in SU victories. I expect the Cavs to want this game more and for that to lead to at least another cover. *9
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12-31-11 | Cincinnati +2 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Commodores hail from the better conference. I believe the Bearcats will prove to be the better team. While I believe they could still win without him, the Bearcats are expected to have senior QB Zach Collaros back behind center. As Isaiah Pead (11 TDS, 1,110 rushing yards) noted: "We're glad to see him out there. Anytime you've got a fifth-year senior at any position on offense, it's a comfortable feeling. We're very happy to have him back." I guess so! All Collaros did was comple 63.4 percent of his throws for 1,860 yards, 14 TDs and eight interceptions. He also ran for eight scores. Remember, he was the Big East leader in passing yards AND TDs last season. While Collaros has certainly played a big part, the Bearcats defense is arguably the biggest difference in the turnaround from a 4-8 2010 to a 9-3 2011. Cincinnati allowed an average of just 20.0 points this season - down from 28 last year. Note the the Bearcats' D led the nation with 3.6 sacks and 8.9 tackles for loss per game. While the schedule was naturally quite tough, the Commodores were still only 6-6 this season. They like to run the ball - and they'll be up against a Cincy run defense which ranked seventh in the entire nation, giving up a mere 92.6 yards per game. Vanderbilt, which has 1st year coach, is only 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS the last 1 times it faced a team with a winning record. I like what Butch Jones, now in his second year here, has done with the Bearcats and I look for them to step up and score the minor "upset." *10
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12-29-11 | Notre Dame +4 v. Florida State | Top | 14-18 | Push | 0 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I've won with Florida State in back to back bowl games. Last season, I backed the Seminoles against South Carolina and they rewarded me with a 26-17 victory. The previous year, I backed them against West Virginia and they came through with a 33-21 win. While I still respect the Seminoles, this year, I feel the value lies in going against them. In each of the last two years, I felt the Seminoles were providing strong value as underdogs. Those were both relatively "big" bowl games as they were played on 12/31 and 1/1. They also represented Bowden's last bowl game and Fischer's first, without Bowden. So, there was plenty of reason to be excited for those games and they had a lot of motivation to win them. In each of the last two bowls, the Seminoles were underdogs. This year, however, they're the ones laying points. That's not such a good role for them. The Noles are 11-14 ATS the last 25 times that they were laying points and that inlcudes an ugly 2-5 ATS mark as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. Four of those five ATS losses resulted in SU losses, too. During the same stretch, the Irish were 6-2-1 ATS as underdogs, including a 5-2-1 ATS mark as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. The Irish did lose at Stanford to close out the season. However, they'd previously won four straight and eight of nine. Note that two of their four losses came by four or less. Also, two of Notre Dame's victories came by three or less. So, getting more than a field goal could certainly prove valuable. Likewise, the Seminoles saw four games decided by five or fewer goals, most recently a 14-13 loss vs. Virginia (as a double-digit favorite!) in their home finale. While the Florida State defense is admittedly stout, the offense has been hampered by injuries all season. The Seminoles' offensive line is a weakness and the running game ranked just 99th in the country. I expect the Irish to have an advantage in that department. In what could well be a very close game, with this line having climbed above the field goal mark, I feel the value lies with the Irish. *10
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12-27-11 | Western Michigan +3 v. Purdue | Top | 32-37 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. I had success playing on/against the Broncos this season. I feel this will be a good spot to play ON them. The Broncos had a strong season and enter playing their best football. They were 3-1 SU/ATS their last four games. Two of the victories came by double-digits and the lone loss came by only three points, when listed as a +12 point underdog. With the Broncos currently getting a few points in this one, note that three of their five losses came by four points or less. Having never won a bowl game, the Broncos should be extremely motivated. Note that Western Michigan scored at least 38 points seven times this season. Its true that the Boilermakers hail from the stronger conference and also that they too should be motivated to win this game. They've been inconsistent all season though and enter today's game having gone just 1-4 ATS their last five. While I do think Purdue will "want" to win, focus may be an issue. The Boilermakers have had tree players arrested and another suspended since the end of the season. Additionally, receiver O.J. Ross and linebacker Dwayne Beckford won't play. While the Boilermakers had four double-digit losses on the season, like WMU, they also played a number of close games. Six of their games were decided by eight or fewer points, three of them getting decided by three or less. Speaking of "close games," this bowl has a recent history of very tight games. In fact, four straight in this bowl (dating back to when it was called the Motor City Bowl) have been decided by four or fewer points, three of those by a field goal or less. The 2010 game had a score of 34-32. The 2009 score was 21-17. In 2008, the final was 24-21. Purdue played in this bowl in 2007 and that game had a final of 51-48. The Boilermakers are just 5-9-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were laying points. During that stretch, they were 1-3 ATS when facing teams from the MAC. While the Boilermakers were 1-2 SU/ATS when the line ranged from -3 to +3, the Broncos were 2-1 SU/ATS in that situation. Given all the close games, I'll grab the points. However, I expect the Broncos to step up and win this one outright. *10
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12-24-11 | Nevada +8 v. Southern Mississippi | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 53 h 12 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on NEVADA. As you probably know, Southern Miss. closed out the season by blowing out undefeated Houston. That victory was certainly impressive. However, it has also caused the Golden Eagles to be viewed as an "elite" team which in turn has them laying a large number here. I feel it will prove to be too large. Yes, beating Houston was impressive, which is what will stand in everyone's memories. However, lets not forget that the Golden Eagles were 0-3 ATS their previous three games. They blew out a terrible Memphis team but not by enough to cover. Prior to that, they lost by three points vs. a bad (3-9) UAB team - and they were laying -24 for that one! Before that, they won by only one vs. UCF. Also, note that Houston was undefeated but hadn't really faced any quality opposition. Houston's toughest previous opponents were arguably UCLA and LA Tech (neither elite teams) and they won those games by only five combined points. So, Houston's previous undefeated record needs to be viewed with a grain of salt. Speaking of "easy schedules," prior to facing Houston, the Golden Eagles toughest opponents were LA Tech, Marshall, Virginia, SMU and Navy. While Marshall and LA Tech have both just covered in their bowl games, none of those teams could exactly be called elite. The Golden Eagles did blow out SMU and Navy - but those teams were only a combined 12-12 on the year. The games against Virginia, Marshall and LA Tech were ALL very close. They beat the Bulldogs by only two points. They lost outright vs. Marshall (by 6) and they beat Virginia by only six. Nevada is arguably better than any of those teams, yet the Golden Eagles are being asked to lay a touchdown, or more. I believe that's asking too much. I believe that is especially true, considering that Southern Miss doesn't even want to be here (the Golden Eagles thought they deserved better and wanted to be in the Liberty Bowl) and given that their coach (Larry Fedora) has already accepted a job at North Carolina. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have a coach (Chris Ault) who isn't going anywhere and who has guided this program for a long time. Nevada can flat out score points. Indeed, the Wolfpack ranked fifth in the entire nation in total offense, averaging just more than 522 yards per game. Of course, that comes in handy when trying to cover a spread as an underdog. The Wolfpack were 2-1 ATS when getting points this season and are 5-3 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. While the Wolfpack finished at "only" 7-5, they faced some truly elite teams, including Oregon and Boise State - both on the road. They did get blown out in both those games (although they still covered at Boise) but their other three losses ALL came by four points or less. So, unless facing a legit top tier opponent (Boise and Oregon are both much better than Southern Miss, at least in my opinion) the Wolfpack were competitive in every single game. Note that they enter the bowls off a confidence-building 56-3 destruction of Idaho. Both teams were involved in "close" games last bowl season. The Golden Eagles lost by three; the Wolfpack won by seven. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all those generous points. *10
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12-20-11 | Florida International v. Marshall +4 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 61 h 34 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on MARSHALL. Many are likely to back the favorite in this one. After all, the Golden Panthers had the superior record, are well-coached and are playing in their home state. I'm not buying it. The Thundering Herd are also well-coached and are playing their best football of the season right now. I don't feel that they're satisfied just to be here and I don't feel they'll be at all intimidated by the Panthers. Yes, FIU had eight wins compared to Marshall's six. However, keep in mind that the Thundering Herd played the likes of West Virginia, V-Tech, Southern Miss, Ohio, Tulsa, Houston and Louisville. ALL seven of those teams are playing in bowls. The Panthers, on the other hand, also faced Louisville but otherwise their only other two bowl opponents were LA-Lafayette and Arkansas State - both teams from within their own conference. FIU lost both those games, while also losing to Western Kentucky, the other team in their conference with a winning conference record. So, the difference in records needs to be viewed with a "grain of salt." Note that both teams beat Louisville but Marshall also beat Southern Miss, a victory which was arguably more impressive than anything the Panthers accomplished. FIU is indeed well-coached. However, with their coach (Mario Cristobal) being talked up as a possible hire at a "bigger" school (he reportedly spoke to Pittsburgh on Friday) the Panthers could be slightly distracted. While not spoken of so much, note that Marshall is also very well-coached. Yes, FIU enters on a 3-game winning streak. However, those three games came against the likes of Florida Atlantic, LA Monroe and Middle Tennessee State. Those three teams had a combined record of 7-29 overall and a combined 4-19 mark in conference play. So, even those games need to be taken with a grain of salt. Marshall enters off back to back victories of its own, beating East Carolina in its final game to become bowl eligible - the Pirates are arguably much better than any of the three teams that FIU beat to close out the season. While the Panthers were 3-5 ATS as favorites, the Herd were 5-3 ATS as underdogs. The Panthers are 8-12-1 ATS when laying points the past few seasons. Note that they're also an awful 2-15 SU the last 17 times that they played with two or more week's rest in between games. The Panthers saw five games decided by a TD or less. The Herd also saw five decided by a TD or less. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10
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12-17-11 | Louisiana-Lafayette v. San Diego State -4.5 | Top | 32-30 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 25 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both finished with identical 8-4 records. LA-Lafayette had the superior ATS record and will play this game much closer to home. However, the Aztecs had the better "away" record and I believe that they're the stronger squad. The Aztecs were 4-1 SU on the road. They outscored opponents by a 24 to 20.8 margin in those games. On the other hand, LA-Lafayette was only 3-4 away from home, getting outscored by a 34.4 to 30.9 margin in those games. The Aztecs also enter as the "hotter" team. They won their last two games, a 31-14 blowout win at UNLV followed up by a 35-28 victory over Fresno State. Prior to that, they covered the spread vs. Boise State, scoring 35 in the process. On the other hand, the Ragin Cajuns enter off back to back losses. Each defeat came by more than a touchdown. San Diego State is 10-4 SU its last 14 non-conference games. During the same stretch, LA-Lafayette is 4-8 SU against non-conference opponents. Going back further finds the Cajuns at a dismal 14-52 their last 66 non-conf. games. Of course, SD State plays in the far more difficult conference and was tested far more often. The Aztecs faced the likes of Michigan, TCU, Boise and Air Force. Other than the loss to Arizona, a team which was inconsistent this year, the Cajuns only top tier opponent was Oklahoma State - that game came back in September and they allowed 61 points, losing by 27. In these "early" bowl games, its always important to consider which team is happier to be there. One could potentially argue that the game is bigger for the Rajin Cajuns as they're their making its first bowl appearance in 41 years. Still, the Aztecs aren't exactly used to playing bowl games every year; they played last year but that was their first bowl appearance since the 90s. So, I feel they're still going to be "fired up" to be here - particularly as last year's team didn't have to travel for its bowl game - a 35-14 blowout of Navy, which was played at San Diego. Meanwhile, the Cajuns may be feeling "happy just to be here." In the end, I look for the Aztecs' superior talent to be the difference. They've got a bigtime running back (Ronnie Hillman had 4 TDs and 178 yrds in the finale vs. Fresno!) and an experienced and very capable senior QB. Ryan Lindley has thrown for more than 12,000 yards (with 87 TDs) in his career with SD State. I expect the Aztecs to again score plenty of points and feel the Cajins will have trouble keeping up. *10
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12-17-11 | Temple -7 v. Wyoming | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 70 h 59 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on TEMPLE. I actually played against the Owls the last time that they lost, a 35-31 setback vs. Ohio on 11/2. However, I didn't do so again - and since that time, the Owls have reeled off three straight victories, the last two coming by 28 and 18 points. I feel that they're the more talented team in this year's opening bowl matchup and I feel that Wyoming will prove to be an ideal opponent for them. The Owls finished with eight wins. That's the same number as last year, when they were "snubbed" by the bowl selection committee. They enter this game with a ton of momentum and I believe that they'll be looking to "prove a point." Anything less than a victory here will be considered a failure. Wyoming had a fine year. In fact, considering that the Cowboys had only three wins last year, this has to be considered an excellent season for them. That will arguably be the case, regardless of what happens here. Wyoming does arguably have the more balanced offense; the Cowboys can run AND pass. Temple, on the other hand, is largely a run-oriented team. That should serve them well here though - as the Cowboys have real issues stopping the run. Indeed, opposing teams have pounded the Cowboys on the ground, averaging better than 230 rushing yards per game against them, to go along with 26 rushing touchdowns. With a pair of outstanding running backs, the Owls should be able to effectively move the ball on the ground. Despite having just said that Wyoming has the more "balanced" attack, I expect the Cowboys offense to find the going much tougher. Temple is allowing a mere 13.8 points per game, including only 11.6 per game on the road! Opposing teams have averaged 315.5 yards per game against them, 316.8 on the road. Wyoming, on the other hand, allowed 27 points and 432.5 yards per game this season. On the road, those numbers climbed to an obscene 31.5 points per game and 466.6 total yards. Wyoming QB Brett Smith had a great season. However, keep in mind that he's still a freshman and that this will be among the best defenses he has faced in his young career. Note that the Owls had 32 sacks. They also recorded 12 interceptions, more than the 11 passing touchdowns which they allowed. While they lost by four vs. Penn State (no shame in that) they dominated their other non-conference opponents, including a 38-7 destruction of the Terrapins, at Maryland. Overall, they were 4-0 ATS in their non-conference games, improving to an extremely impressive 10-1 ATS against non-conf. foes the past few seasons. Running behind their big offensive line, I expect them to wear down the Cowboys, en route to a win and cover. *9
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12-10-11 | Army +7 v. Navy | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 38 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on ARMY. As you're probably aware, Navy has dominated this series in recent years. In fact, the Midshipmen have won nine straight meetings with Army by double-digits. The teams are far more evenly matched this year though and I'm expecting a much closer affair. Admittedly, the Black Knights didn't have a great season. They're off three straight losses and finished just 3-8 SU and 5-6 ATS. This year, however, Navy wasn't much better. The Midshipmen also finished with sub-500 record. They were 4-7 SU, matching Army's 5-6 ATS mark. While Navy beat up on Troy, the Trojans had a down year this season. A more impressive victory came against SMU. However, it should be noted that the Midshipmen won that one by only seven. That was one of SIX games that they played which was decided by seven or fewer points. Their other two victories came against Western Kentucky and Delaware, not exactly national powerhouses. The Knights also played some close games. Three of their games were decided by seven or less. While their most recent victory (55-0 vs. Fordham) came against a lesser team, the Knights did also knock off Tulane and Northwestern. Navy has had trouble against "losing" teams. Even including last year's cover against Army, the Midshipmen are still only 3-8 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, during the same stretch, Army was 5-2 SU/ATS when matched up against a team with a losing record. Needless to say, both teams will really want this game. However, given their losing streak in the series and knowing that this may finally be their chance, I expect Army to be a little more "hungry." In the end, in a game that could easily come down to the wire, I expect that to lead to at least a cover for the Knights. *10
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12-03-11 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -9.5 | Top | 39-42 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Spartans have the higher ranking and are certainly tough. However, I feel that the Badgers are favored for good reason. The Badgers did lose vs. the Sparatans in the "regular" season. However, that was at Michigan State and the Badgers weren't as tough when playing on an opponent's home field. Note that I successfully played against the Badgers on the road when they lost at Ohio State AND when they failed to cover at Illinois. However, again those were both on the opposing team's home field. In this case, the game will be played on a "neutral" field. Therefore, its worth noting that the Badgers are 12-7 SU/ATS their last 19 "neutral" field games, including 3-0 ATS their last four. On the other hand, the Spartans are 3-10 SU/ATS their last 13 "neutral" field games, going 0-3 ATS their last three. While the Spartans have won just two of their last 10 December games, the Badgers have won six of their last eight December games. Both teams play great defense. The Badgers allow 15.2 points per game and the Spartans allow 15.4. The Badgers have the edge on the other side of the ball though. Michigan State averages a respectable 30.2 points per game. However, that number dips all the way down to 18.8 away from home. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is averaging a whopping 44. 8 points per game, 35.8 on the road. The Spartans averaged 29 points per game against conference opponents, the Badgers averaged 43. The Badgers average 477.1 yards of offense, 430.4 on the road. The Spartans average 383.7 yards of offense, just 337.8 on the road. The Badgers are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were neutral field favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. The Spartans are 0-4 SU/ATS their last four, as neutral field underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Its payback time. *10 Personal Favorite
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12-03-11 | Oklahoma +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | 10-44 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. This is obviously a huge game for the Cowboys. Not only would they desperately love to beat their rivals but the Big 12 title is on the line. However, the loss to Iowa State likely killed their any shot at the national title game, even if they win big here. While they've had some time to recover, I believe that loss will have a negative effect on the Cowboys and that winning at all will be tough. As you're likely aware, Oklahoma has dominated this series. The Sooners won 47-41 at Oklahoma State last season and 27-0 at Oklahoma the previous season. All-time, the Sooners are 82-16-7 in the series, including 8-0 the last eight. Now, the Cowboys are being asked to snap that streak AND to do it by winning by more than a field goal. I feel thats asking too much. Even with a couple of key injuries, the Sooners possess an extremely potent offense. They didn't score quite as many as Oklahoma State but the Sooners still averaged 43 points and 547.9 yards per game. On the road, they averaged 44. Its on the other side of the ball that the Sooners really figure to have the advantage though. Oklahoma allows 20.8 points per game, 21.8 on the road. Oklahoma State allows 27.3 points per game and 29 points per game at home. While the Cowboys allow 473.2 yards per game at home, the Sooners allow only 322.6 on the road. Including last season's win here, the Sooners are 10-3-1 ATS the last 14 times that they were listed as underdogs of four points or less. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday. *9
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12-03-11 | Virginia Tech v. Clemson +7 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on CLEMSON. I successfully played against Clemson last week. The Tigers already had the division wrapped up though and therefore, I expected the Gamecocks to be the more hungry squad. That turned out to be the case, as South Carolina smashed the Tigers by a score of 34-13. Don't underestimate this team based on the results of the last two weeks. The Tigers were as high as #5 in the national rankings at one point and they still finished with nine wins. At one point they beat three straight ranked opponents, one of those came at Blacksburg, a 23-3 victory against these same Hokies. While I'm aware that the Hokies have been tough in the "revenge" role. However, I feel factor is often over-rated and in this case, I feel its been another factor, along with Clemson's last two losses, which are helping to provide us with excellent line value. Admittedly, the V-Tech defensive stats are far better than the Clemson ones. The Tigers have the type of offense that can help make up for that though. They averaged 33.2 points and 440 yards per game - both better stats than V-Tech, which also has a strong attack. Also, as the Hokies know, the Tigers ARE fully capable of playing tough defense. Clemson held Virginia Tech to a season low 258 yards and without a touchdown; The first time that has happened at home for the Hokies since 1995. The Hokies did blow out Virginia last time out. However, three of their previous six games, including two of their previous three, were decided by four points or less. So, they've been involved in plenty of recent close games. Clemson is 48-32-2 ATS the last 82 times it was getting points. That includes an outstanding 25-12-1 ATS when the Tigers were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, including 5-1 ATS their last six in that role. The Tigers are also 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were off back to back losses. I'm expecting this one to go down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. *10
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12-03-11 | BYU v. Hawaii +8 | Top | 41-20 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on HAWAII. The Cougars have the better record and may indeed be the better team. However, that doesn't always ensure a cover. Far from it. BYU is playing at Hawaii, often difficult to begin with. However, that task could be extra difficult, as the Cougars are likely to be more susceptible to the "island distractions," due to having already agreed to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. While the Cougars are far from home and have little to play for, the Warriors have much on the line. If they win here, they get to play in the Hawaii Bowl. If they lose, they don't play in a bowl and have to watch two other teams play here in their stadium. Yes, they lost their starting QB a few weeks back. However, this is a team which has been able to get strong QB play over the years, from just about anyone they throw in there. The Warriors showed that in their last game, earning a double-digit win, scoring 35 points in the process. While BYU averages 24 points per game on the road, Hawaii averages 37 here at home. With the pointspread up over a touchdown, it should be noted that the Warriors have been involved in numerous close games. They won by 12 last week. However, three of their previous six games were decided by a field goal or less. Each of their last seven games has been decided by a dozen points or less. It should also be noted that the Cougars are only 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. The Warriors lost by just three points at BYU the last time (2002) that they faced the Cougars and are 6-3 ATS the last nine meetings in the series. I'll take the points but I expect the Warriors to want this game more and for that to lead to an outright uspet. *10
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12-03-11 | Middle Tenn State v. North Texas -5.5 | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS. The Blue Raiders have had a tough season. They've lost five straight and are an awful 2-9 on the season. They'd surely like a victory in Saturday's finale but even that would do little to take the sting out of a very disappointing season. The Mean Green admittedly haven't been great either. They do check in with a superior record (4-7) than the Blue Raiders though and their players have arguably more to play for and more reason to feel good about themselves. Not only are they playing at home but a victory here would give them their best record since 2004 - a reason to feel the program is heading in the right direction. While some of the overall stats are similar, North Texas enters playing better football. The Mean Green lost last time out. However, they'd defeated Troy before that, a team Middle Tennessee State lost to. In fact, the Mean Green have alternated wins and losses since the beginning of October, responding to each loss with a victory. Note that those three victories came by an average of a dozen points each. In addition to showing an ability to bounce back from losses, note that North Texas comes off a bye and is 3-0 ATS its last three off a bye. As for the Blue Raiders, the five losses on their current skid have all come by double-digits. They lost those games by a combined score of 187 to 71, each a "blowout." They're 0-8 ATS their last eight, when playing with six or less day's rest. The Mean Green beat a stronger Blue Raiders team by six points last season and that was at Middle Tennessee State. Playing arguably better this year and playing at home, I expect the Mean Green to win by an even larger margin this year. *9 Roast
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12-02-11 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio +4 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on OHIO. These teams are both certainly deserving of being here. Both teams are talented and both played their best down the stretch. The Huskies enter on a 7-game winning streak. The Bobcats aren't far behind them though, as they've won five straight. While I successfully played against the Bobcats in each of their last two games, I feel they're the team which is providing us with the value here. Yes, I played against Ohio each of its last two games. However, each time I said that I respected that Bobcats, only that I felt they were laying too many points. They still won each game outright, most recently a 7-point win over a fairly solid and determined Miami Ohio squad. This week, however, its the Bobcats which are getting points. In fact, due in part to failing to cover the last two weeks, they're even getting more than a field goal. Given all the recent close games by these teams, that could easily prove significant. Last week, among the reasons, I played against the Bobcats was that they'd already clinched a spot in this game. They still won. But "only" by seven. Including that victory, they've now seen seven of nine games decided by eight points or less. Four of those were decided by four or less, two by a single point. The Huskies are no stranger to close games either. Laying -17.5, they won by only six last time out. In their previous game, they were laying -18 and won by just three points. In fact, three of their last five games have been decided by a field goal or less, four of them decided by six or fewer. Not surprisingly, the Huskies were only 4-6 ATS as favorites this season. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 8-4 ATS the last dozen times they were listed as underdogs. There is no denying that the Huskies have a bigtime offense, as they average nearly 40 points per game. The Bobcats are no slouches offensively either though. They've got the third best offense in the conference and rank 18th in the country. Its on the other side of the ball that the Bobcats figure to have the advantage. They allow just 21.7 points and 352.1 yards per game. The Bobcats allowed a few more yards (385) on the road, but still less than 400. On the other hand, the Huskies allowed 32 points per game, including 41 on the road. When playing away from home, they allowed a whopping 535.5 yards per game. The Bobcats, who have a veteran coach in Frank Solich, have had some extra preparation time. They last played on 11/22. The Huskies, who have a 1st year head coach, haven't had as much time, as they last played on 11/25. With the Bobcats at 6-1 ATS the last seven times they faced a team with a winning record, I'm grabbing the points. *10
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12-01-11 | West Virginia v. South Florida +2 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. This is a very big game for the Mountaineers. West Virginia is already bowl eligible. However, the Mountaineers can clinch a 3-way tie for the Big East Title. To do that, they'd need to win this game AND have Cincy beat UConn on Saturday. Given that the Huskies generally aren't as good on the road and that the Bearcats are currently a -9 point (-350 on ML) favorite, the Mountaineers probably feel that their chances of earning that 3-way tie are pretty good. (If Cincy loses, then Louisville wins.) If the 3-way tie happened, the team with the highest ranking in the final BCS standings would get the BCS berth, possibly the Orange Bowl on January 4th. While that certainly makes this a very big game, it also gives them a much bigger game to "look ahead" to. Despite West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen insisting otherwise, that's a very real possibility. Whether or not that's the case, I expect the Mountaineers to run into a tougher opponent than they're expecting. While this is a huge game for the Mountaineers, its a "must win" game for the Bulls, if they want to become bowl eligible. It also offers them one last chance to redeem themselves for what has otherwise admittedly been a very disappointing finish to the season. Keep in mind that the Bulls were expected to contend for the title themselves. Also, lets remember that they haven't missed a bowl game since 2004. The Bulls, who are hoping to have QB Daniels back, haven't been winning but they're still fighting hard. In fact, their last five losses have been by a combined total of 25 points. Coach Holtz had this to say about the losses: "I take it personal. We've come close, but we haven't done a good enough job." While I successfully played against the Bulls the last time (9/29) that they played on a Thursday night. That was on the road though (at Pittsburgh) and they weren't in "desperation mode." I expect Holtz to have his team better prepared this time and fired up to play the big game at home. The Bulls lost at West Virginia last season but they beat the Mountaineers each of the last two games here at South Florida. I expect them to step up and do it again on Thursday. *10
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11-26-11 | Notre Dame +7.5 v. Stanford | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 51 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I successfully played against Stanford last week. The Cardinal were -17 point favorites vs. Cal and they won by only three points. One of the reasons that I played against the Cardinal was that I felt they weren't fully "recovered" from their loss to Oregon. While they'd surely like a convincing win here, I still don't think that they've got the Oregon loss out of their heads. Either way, this is a very talented Notre Dame team, one which expects to leave here with a victory. Since dropping a pair of games they easily could have won to start the season, The Irish have won eight of nine, including four straight. They did lose running back Jonas Gray last week. However, they still have another very capable back in Cierre Wood. Indeed, Wood already has more than 1000 rushing yards, including 94 last week. Meanwhile, Michael Floyd is among the best receivers around. He's already topped the 1000 yard mark in receiving, after also doing so last season. In his three games against Stanford, he's got 19 receptions for 310 yards and three TDs. Admittedly, the Irish didn't play well against USC - and they lost that one by 14. Beating Stanford, a team which defeated USC, would go along way in redeeming that loss though - and I expect the Irish to be extremely motivated to do just that. Added motivation comes from the fact that the Cardinal have defeated them the past two seasons. Keep in mind that ND's other two losses both came by four or fewer points. The Irish didn't cover vs. Stanford last season. That was the only time that they failed to get the cash the past nine times that they were "getting points" though, as we find them at 8-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs, dating back to before Christmas of 2008. I expect them to improve on those stats here and won't be at all surprised by an outright win. *10 main event
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11-26-11 | Clemson v. South Carolina -3.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Clemson is already set to play in the ACC title game. However, the Tigers have lost two of three, turning the ball over a whopping 11 times in the process. Last week, they lost 37-13 against NC State. Even Clemson coach Dabo Swinney noted this of the Tigers' last three games: "We're lucky we hadn't lost all three." While the Tigers have a "bigger" game on deck, this one is huge for South Carolina. The Gamecocks have a chance to get to 10 wins, which would match the best mark in school history. As coach Spurrier noted: "If you're not in the conference championship game, this becomes the biggest game of the year for us." The Gamecocks offense finally got back on track last time out - albeit against a lesser opponent. Meanwhile, the defense has been among the best in the country all year. The South Carolina defense ranks fifth in the FBS in total defense (279.5 yards per game) and second against the pass (137.5). Spurrier said this of the big offensive performance: "Might have been the best offensive game since I've been here..." The Gamecocks are 3-1 ATS their last four against the ACC and have won 11 of their last 13 non-conference games. They crushed Clemson 29-7 last season and 34-17 the previous year. I expect "more of the same" on Saturday. *10 Personal Favorite
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11-26-11 | Maryland +12.5 v. North Carolina State | 41-56 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on MARYLAND. The Terrapins are struggling while the Wolfpack are off an impressive win. That has caused this line to be generously high. I feel that it will be too high. Maryland's defense has certainly struggled against the run. However, NC State has struggled to run the ball, ranking 109th in the country. So, the Wolfpack aren't necessarily equipped to exploit the Terps' primary weakness. The Terps have had NC State's number, too. They've won four of the last five meetings in the series and eight of 11. They know this is a big game for the Wolfpack and I expect them to go out all out to try and beat them. As NC State coach Tom O'Brien noted of Maryland: "Just because they've lost six or seven in a row doesn't mean that
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11-26-11 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +7.5 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on KENTUCKY. On paper, the Volunteers have more to play for. With an exciting and controversial win over Vanderbilt last week, this game matters for them. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are playing out the string. That doesn't mean that they don't want to close out their season with a win though, while doing some "spoiling" at the same time. While Kentucky is off back to back losses, both those came on the road. They certainly haven't quit either. Last week, the Wildcats lost by only nine, at Georgia. In their last home game, the Wildcats crushed Ole Miss by a score of 30-13. Note that Kentucky is a profitable 6-2 ATS the last eight times it was off back to back SU losses. While the competition has admittedly been very tough, the Vols are winless on the road. Every road game has resulted in a double-digit loss and they've been outscored by an average of 39.7 to 12 in those games. Yet, now they're laying a TD (maybe more at some shops) on the road. I don't believe there's a large gap in talent between these teams. Therefore, I feel the line is very generous and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Best Bet
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11-26-11 | Rutgers v. Connecticut +4 | 22-40 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on UCONN. Rutgers has been better than UConn this season. And, on paper, the Knights have more to play for. The Huskies are playing their home finale though and I feel they'll be extremely hungry. While they lost last week, he Huskies have still been tough at home. Prior to last week's loss, they'd won two straight at home, earning victories over South Florida and Syracuse. Rutgers is averaging only 289 yards of offense on the road. Note that ALL three of the Knights' "true road games" have been decided by a field goal or less, two of those were losses. Five of their last 10 overall have been decided by three or less. This will be the first time that Rutgers has been a road favorite all season, a situation its just 9-13-1 ATS its last 23 in. Speaking of "close games," the last three in this series have all been decided by four points or less. The Huskies, still 7-1 ATS their last eight November games, are 2-0 SU/aTS when coming off a conference loss, a situation they've gone 6-2 ATS in the past couple of seasons. In a game that could easily come down to the wire once again, I'm grabbing all the points I can get with the home underdog Huskies. *9
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11-25-11 | UTEP v. Central Florida -9.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on CENTRAL FLORIDA. Both teams have had disappointing seasons and both enter this game, the last for each, off a loss. The Knights have been playing much better football though. Stepping down in class and playing at home, I expect them to close out their season with a convincing victory. The Knights' last three games have come against a good Tulsa team and the other two were on the road, including one against a fairly good Southern Miss. team. While they did lose all three of those games, ALL three losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 1 point loss at Southern Miss and a 7-pt loss vs. Tulsa. By comparison, those same two teams (Tulsa and Southern Miss) defeated UTEP by a combined margin of 88-41 AND the Miners got to face them both at UTEP to boot. UTEP is actually still in contention for a 6-win season which would make it bowl eligible. That doesn't mean the Miners want this game any more than the Knights though, as UCF is determined to go out on a high note. Coach O'Leary had this to say: "It's been a very frustrating season. We've lost six games by a total of 31 points. That's one possession or one defensive stop really. I think our players have played really hard, but we have tried to build our program on not making mistakes, no penalties and not beating yourself, and we really haven't gotten that accomplished this season." Remember, O'Leary's team had 11 wins last year and this is the most successful senior class in school history. They DO NOT want to go out on a losing note. Senior tight end Adam Nissley noted: "As a senior it just means going out on the highest note possible. Being able to go out with a win would be the next best thing without being able to go to a bowl." While he's expected to start, UTEP has a banged-up starting QB. The Miners are also without arguably the best player in their secondary, as senior safety TraVaun Nixon, who leads the team in interceptions, injured his knee last week. The Knights are 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they were favored and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. I expect them to deliver a highly motivated effort, going out on top and ending the Miners' bowl dreams with a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite
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11-25-11 | Louisville v. South Florida -3.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. The 6-5 Cardinals have a better record, thanks to a win last week. In fact, remarkably, they're still alive for the league title and a BCS bid. Don't expect the Bulls to just hand it to them. At 5-5, the Bulls need another victory to become bowl eligible. Even though they lost by a field goal last week and have had a disappointing season, this is a talented team, one which was expected to contend for the league title this year. With so much on the line, I expect them to rise to the occasion with their very best effort. Coach Holtz had this to say of the team's morale: "We're glad we have the opportunity to play at home. I think they're more determined than ever. I don't think they will throw up their arms. Their attitude is good. We've got to keep working. The key word is persistence.... Nobody is pointing fingers right now. Everybody is saying what do we have to do." The Bulls are 4-0 and 3-1 ATS at home vs. Louisville. They won by 12 the last time the teams met here. They outgained the Cardinals by more than 200 yards in that one. I expect Louisville's dreams come to an end as the Bulls step up their game and continue their home dominance in the series. *9
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11-24-11 | Texas +8 v. Texas A&M | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Aggies are a talented team and they enter this game off a convincing 61-7 victory. That being the case and with the Longhorns off back to back losses, we're getting a very generous line with the underdog. I feel that big line is providing us with excellent value. Yes, the Aggies are off the big win. However, keep in mind that victory came against a terrible Kansas team, one which Texas also crushed. (The Longhorns beat Kansas 41-0). So, that victory arguably wasn't as impressive as it sounds. Prior to that, the Aggies had been 0-4 ATS their previous four games, losing the previous three outright. They're still an ugly 3-8 ATS on the season. Going back further finds the Aggies are a money-burning 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. The Longhorns have gone 2-1 ATS on the road. They won by 10 their last trip here and they're also 13-6 SU the last 19 times that they were off back to back losses. The Aggies are just 3-8 their last 11 Kyle Field finales, including 1-4 vs. Texas. Five of the Aggies' last nine games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Speaking of close games, last year's meeting was decided by a touchdown, a 24-17 victory for the Aggies. I feel this one could well be close the entire way and am grabbing all the points that I can get. *10 Main Event
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11-22-11 | Miami (OH) +9 v. Ohio | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. This line climbed above a touchdown since it opened and I feel that provides us plenty of value with the underdog. No question, the RedHawks have had a disappointing season. This is still a talented and capable team though. Remember, they went from going 1-11 in 2009 to 10-4 and winning a bowl game in 2010. While this year's team got a new coach, it also returned 17 starters. That means that they've had experience winning and having a 1st-year coach here should also ensure they go all out to close out the season with a victory, building some positives for next year. Also, note that these teams had a big and heavily hyped game at Miami last season. The RedHawks were embarrassed by their "instate rival" in that one - their final loss of the season - and that should provide them with some added motivation here. On the other hand, Ohio has already clinched a spot in the MAC Title game. While the Bobcats would surely like to win big, unlike the RedHawks, they've got a bigger and far more important game on deck. Both teams have shown a tendency to play close games. Ohio won by one point last time out and has now seen six of its last eight games decided by eight or fewer points. Meanwhile, Miami Ohio is off back to back games which were decided by a field goal and has now seen four of its last seven decided by a touchdown or less. I feel this one could well be close too and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10
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11-19-11 | California +18.5 v. Stanford | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I've had plenty of recent success picking my spots to go "on" and "against" Cal. (Most recently, I won with the Bears when they beat up on Utah while winning against them when they got hammered by UCLA.) I feel this will prove to be an excellent "play ON" spot. As you surely know, Stanford lost its first game last week. Playing their biggest game of the season, the Cardinal got hammered by the Oregon Ducks. As they were actually starting to believe that they could run the table, last week's loss figures to be hard to immediately bounce back from. Indeed, many bettors tend to expect highly ranked teams to bounce back huge off their first loss. However, when that first loss comes late in the season, I've often found the opposite to be true. You may recall that I successfully played against the Badgers a few weeks ago, when they were off their first loss. Instead of bouncing back from their loss at Michigan State, as many expected, the Badgers lost again. This week, the Cardinal are not only being asked to bounce back with a victory, they're being asked to bounce back and win by nearly three touchdowns. Against a solid Cal team off back to back double-digit wins, I feel that's asking too much. Note that Stanford is just 1-3 ATS the last four times that it was coming off a conference loss. Off that crushing defeat (and with Notre Dame) on deck, this game surely can't seem that exciting. Note that Stanford coach David Shaw said TE Zach Ertz is unlikely to play against Cal. Also, WR Chris Owusu is out. Remember, Luck had already lost most of his weapons from last year's team. As noted, the Bears are off back to back big wins. They've now held three of their past four opponents to 10 points or less. It should also be noted that the Bears have had this game circled since Stanford destroyed them in front of their home fans last season. Cal did win outright here the previous season though - a 34-28 victory as a +7 point underdog. The Bears are a highly profitable 21-10 ATS the last 31 times that they were +10.5 to +21 point underdogs. A win here would really make their season and I look for them to go all out to try and get it. *10 Best Bet
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11-19-11 | Kansas State v. Texas -9 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 25 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Wildcats are off a win over a good team and boast an impressive 8-2 record. Yet, I feel the 6-3 Longhorns are favored for good reason. Off last week's loss at Missouri and with a pair of tough road games on deck to close out the season, the Longhorns know that they need to take care of business here. While they did lose last year, note that the Longhorns remain an impressive 16-2 their last 18 home finales. The Longhorns also feel they have a score to settle as the Wildcats embarrassed them 39-14 at Manhattan last year and have beaten them three straight times. With K-State off an emotional 4-Overtime victory, the Longhorns are catching the Wildcats at the right time. While K-State may have the better overall record, the Longhorns have been arguably more impressive at home than the Wildcats have on the road. Texas is outgaining opponents by a 470 to 267 margin at home, outscoring them 34.4 to 16.6 here. On the other hand, K-State is actually being outgained on the road, giving up a whopping 463 yards per road game, averaging 427.5 themselves. While they've really struggled in underdog role, the Longhorns have quietly gone an impressive 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) the last seven times that they were laying points, including 4-0 ATS the last four. Catching an "emotionally and physically drained" Wildcat team, I expect the Longhorns and their superior defense to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite
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11-19-11 | Miami (Florida) v. South Florida +1 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. Both teams could really use a victory here but I like how this one sets up for the Bulls. Not only are they playing at home but they've also had an extra day of rest, as they played last Friday while Miami played Saturday. Additionally, while the Hurricanes are off a tough loss vs. a hated rival, the Bulls are off a blowout win, a victory which gives them confidence that they can finish the season strong. The Bulls won outright as a double-digit underdog at Miami last season and they're 7-2 ATS their last nine against ACC teams overall. They're averaging 48 points and 583.5 yards per game at home and their only loss here came by a field goal. Some will be surprised but I look for the Bulls to make it two in a row here. *9
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11-19-11 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I played on Penn State last week. Even if there hadn't been "the scandal," there's a good chance that I would have backed the Nittany Lions in that one. However, I actually liked the Nittany Lions more after the scandal. For starters, the line went up, at or above a field goal. Playing at home, I felt that was offering excellent value. Secondly, I really felt that the players would rise up and elevate their level of play, showing that Penn State was bigger than the disgusting and tragic events which the school was being associated with. While they fell behind early, the Nittany Lions did indeed come ready to play. They ended up losing by three, either a win or push, depending on when and where one played. That was a home game though - a game where they really left it all on the field. While I felt that the Nittany Lions would be able to channel their emotions for a single game, I now feel that it will be much tougher to do it in back to back weeks, let alone at a hostile venue like Ohio State. Last week, they had the full support of the home fans and were running on emotion. This week, neither will be there to help them. I expect the exhausting events to take a toll. Don't expect the Buckeyes to have any sympathy though. Not when they're coming off a disappointing loss of their own! Ohio State is 4-0 ATS the last four times it was off a conference loss and 16-5 ATS its last 21 home lined games. The Buckeyes won their last game here by double-digits (and upset Wisconsin here before that) and I expect another convincing win this afternoon. *10 Big Easy
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11-19-11 | Maryland v. Wake Forest -10 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on MARYLAND. While they have shown some positive flashes, there's no denying that the Terrapins have had a disappointing season, or that they've really struggled lately. In fact, since beating Miami in the opener, things have been pretty bleak. That said, they've still got some talent and they're still playing hard. Off a game vs. a very good Notre Dame team, they should be thrilled to step down in class to take on a Wake Forest team which they destroyed last year and which checks in on a 3-game losing streak. While the Terps have been on the wrong side of a few "blowouts," the Demon Deacons have made a habit of playing a lot of close games recently, regardless of opponent. Two of the losses in their 3-game skid have been by seven or fewer points and their last win came by only a single point. In fact, a closer look shows that four of Wake Forest's five victories came by eight or fewer points - the Deacons' lone double-digit victory came against 1-AA Gardner Webb. Overall, seven of their 10 games were decided by eight or less. Now, they're being asked to lay double-digits - and against a team that beat them by a score of 62-14 last season. I believe that's asking too much. The Terps are 7-4-2 ATS the last 13 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56.5 range and I look for them to take this one down to the wire, improving on those stats this afternoon. *9
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11-19-11 | Louisville v. Connecticut | 34-20 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. The Huskies aren't getting a lot of respect here and I feel they're providing us with excellent value. The Huskies off a win in their last game and have since had a bye, giving them extra preparation time. On the other hand, Louisville is playing on a regular week and lost its last game. The Cardinals won big vs. the Huskies last year. That was at Louisville though and UConn is rarely very good away from home. Games here have been a different story. The Huskies beat the Cardinals 38-25 here in 2009, moving to 3-0 ATS the last three times they were a series host. The Huskies are 6-3 SU/ATS the last nine times that they were off a conference win. During that stretch, they've also gone a perfect 7-0 ATS (6-1 SU) when playing in the month of November. Overall the Huskies are 12-4 SU their last 16 home lined games while the Cardinals are 5-10 SU on the road, during the same stretch. Neither club is typically great offensively while both are generally capable defensively. Ultimately, I expect home field to again prove the difference. *9
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11-19-11 | Wisconsin v. Illinois +15 | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on ILLINOIS. I wasn't surprised that the Badgers lost at Michigan State or that they followed it up with a loss at Ohio State. After all, that first loss killed their hopes of an undefeated season. It also hasn't been surprising that the Badgers have responded with back to back big wins. After all, those games came against weak opponents, Purdue and Minnesota. I expect them to have their hands full this afternoon though. While they can't go undefeated, the Badgers are still in the hunt for the Big Ten "Leaders" Division title. They know they're currently a game back of Penn State though and also know that they face those same Nittany Lions next week. Obviously, that's a huge game - and I feel it may be easy to get caught looking past Illinois. That could well prove costly though. The Illini have struggled lately and are admittedly dealing with some adversity. They're without a starting linebacker and their coach is on the "hot seat." As coach Zook noted, however, "When you've got problems, that's when you find out what kind of people you are and what kind of person you are and you've just got to keep on keeping on and work through it..." I expect the Illini to "dig deep" in this one. Note that the teams haven't played for a few years but have a history of playing "close" games. The most recent, at Wisconsin in 2008, was decided by 10 points. The most recent here at Champaign (2007) saw Illinois win by five. Speaking of "close games," the Illini have seen their last two home finales decided by a combined five points. The Illini are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range and that includes a 1-0 ATS mark as a home underdog in the +14.5 to +17 range. Looking to salvage their season and possibly their coach's job, I expect the Illini to improve on those stats here. *10
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11-18-11 | Toledo v. Central Michigan +15.5 | 44-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. Admittedly, the Chippewas have seen better days. They've only won two games since the beginning of October and are 0-6 ATS their last six games, dating back to an impressive 48-41 win over Northern Illinois on 10/1. I feel we're getting plenty of value with the Chippewas this week though. Lets check it out. Taking a closer look at CMU's 6-game ATS slide and we find that ALL six of those games were decided by 15 or fewer points and that the average margin of victory was just 7.33 points. In other words, the games have been far more competitive than most would probably assume, just by looking at the record. Toledo knows all about playing "close games." The Rockets have seen three of their last four decided by a touchdown or less and the last two have both been decided by a field goal. Earlier in the season, the Rockets suffered losses of three and five points. The Rockets are a solid team and they obviously want the victory here. However, off the 66-63 and 63-60 games, I feel they may be ripe for a bit of a letdown. They've got six wins and they know they have another game (Ball State) to go. This is the final game of the year for the Chippewas, which should provide them with some extra motivation. A chance to finish on top, in front of the home fans, taking out some of the sting of a disappointing season. They're 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range and I expect them to earn at least another cover here. *9
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11-18-11 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State +28 | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on IOWA STATE. Obviously, the Cowboys are a very good and dangerous team. I've learned that first hand, as they've beaten me more than once this season, including last week when they absolutely destroyed Texas Tech. I always try and learn from my mistakes. However, I also won't let a "bad call" prevent me from looking at future games with an unbiased view and I won't let that happen here. While sometimes easier said than done, its always important to remember to handicap each game individually and with an open mind - regardless of how they're treated you in the past. That being said and with all due respect to the Cowboys, I feel this line will prove to be too high. Off back to back wins, the Cyclones are arguably playing their best football right now. One of those victories was a 41-7 destruction of Texas Tech - so, the Cowboys weren't the only team to blow out the Red Raiders recently. The Cyclones have allowed only 17 total points their last two games and they've ran the ball for more than 600 yards in those games. They won't be able to "shut" down the Cowboys but that's at least the right formula for "slowing" them down. Off a bye, they've had plenty of extra time to prepare for this dangerous attack. The Cowboys are playing the second of b2b road games here. Off such a huge blowout and with a bye and then Oklahoma, their biggest game of the year, on deck - they could easily get caught looking past the Cyclones here. Iowa State, on the other hand, is playing its home finale. Given the situation and that the Cyclones haven't lost by more than 23 at home all year (they've hosted the likes of Iowa, A@M and Texas) and with this number having climbed from its already high opener, I feel that we're getting excellent value with the home underdog. *9
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11-17-11 | North Carolina +11 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Admittedly, the Tar Heels have been a bit inconsistent. That being the case, many bettors are wary to back them. Combine that with the fact that UNC is off an "ugly" loss while V-Tech is off a convincing win and we're getting a very large line to work with. I believe it will prove to be too high. I didn't play on the Tar Heels in their last game. That was a good thing, as they "failed to show up," losing 12-0 at NC State. That was an "instate rivalry" game though and those can tend to have a different feel to them, particularly that one. The Wolfpack wanted it more and played harder. That was the 5th straight time that NC State has beaten UNC though, as that's arguably the most important game to the Wolfpack's fan base. That doesn't seem to be the case for the Tar Heels. However, it should be noted that they've fared well, after losing to the Wolfpack in previous seasons. Last year, they followed up their loss to NC State by winning on the road, at Duke. The previous season, their loss to NC State came in the final game of the regular season. In 2008, the Heels followed up their loss to the Wolfpack with an 8-point victory, as a -7.5 point favorite. the previous season, after losing at NC State, the Heels covered the spread at Georgia Tech, losing by only two (27-25) as a +9.5 point favorite. In other words, just because the Tar Heels stunk against the Wolfpack, it doesn't necessarily mean that they'll do it again. If anything, losing to their "rival" seems to have a motivating effect. In this case, the Heels have also had plenty of extra preparation time, as that game came by on 11/5. Note that UNC is 7-4 SU the last 11 times it was off a conference loss, including a 2-1 SU/ATS mark in that situation this season. Some of you will recall that we backed this same UNC team the game before NC State and the Heels rewarded us by crushing Wake Forest. Also, note that two of UNC's conference losses came by a touchdown or less. The Heels lost by six vs. Miami and by seven at Georgia Tech. The Hokies are off an 11-point win at Georgia Tech but they're no strangers to playing close conference games either. They beat Miami by three and Duke by four. They're still just 2-5 ATS their last seven. While the Hokies are 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range, the Tar Heels are 2-0 ATS the last two times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. The Heels won outright here last visit, 20-17 when listed as a +14.5 point underdog. I expect another close one tonight. *10 Best Bet
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11-16-11 | Ohio v. Bowling Green +7 | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. The Bobcats are on a nice roll. However, they're playing on a short week here while also playing back to back road games for the first and only time this season. On the other hand, Bowling Green is well-rested and "desperate." While the Bobcats played on 11/10, the Falcons last played on 11/8. Ohio is still looking to wrap up the MAC East but Bowling Green figures to be even more hungry as they need to win this game AND win their final one (winnable road game at Buffalo) to get to six wins. While they were blown out by one of the best teams in the MAC West (NIU) last time out, the Falcons have beaten Temple and Miami Ohio, two of the better teams in the MAC East. While Bowling Green is only 2-3 at home, last week's loss to NIU was the only home defeat which came by more than a touchdown. The other losses here came by seven points and one point. They're still outscoring opponents by a 26.6 to 24.8 margin here. Despite the sub-500 record, the Falcons have really shown improvement from last year (when they finished just 2-10) and are a much stronger team than the one that was a +8 or +9 point underdog at Ohio last year. Yet, now they're playing a "must win" game, have the schedule in their favor AND are playing their home finale, yet we're getting nearly as many points to work with. While they've dropped two in a row, note that the Falcons are already 2-0 ATS this season, after having lost two or more consecutive games. Ohio is certainly a good MAC team and won't be easy to beat. That said, playing their final home game of the season, I expect the Falcons to go all out, improving on those stats with at least another cover. *10 Best Bet
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11-12-11 | Duke +10.5 v. Virginia | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 57 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on DUKE. I feel that these teams are far more evenly matched than the pointspread indicates. Therefore, I feel that getting "double-digits" with the "dog" is very attractive. I won with Duke in this matchup last season. The pointspread was close to a "pick'em" and Duke won by a score of 55-48. Granted, that game was at Duke and this one is at Virginia. Also, this is an improved Virginia team. However, I feel that the same can be said of Duke. Keep in mind that this is now David Cutcliffe's fourth year with the Blue Devils and that with 14 returning starters, this was considered to be his best team since being here. While Duke has lost four straight, keep in mind that two of those losses (vs V-Tech and Wake Forest) came by four points or less. Both those resulted in pointspread victories and have the Blue Devils at a profitable 5-2 ATS their last seven. The Blue Devils have actually won two of their three road games this season, including a victory at Boston College. They're now 8-5-1 ATS their last 14 in the road. As for the recent losses, note that Duke remains a lucrative 7-4 ATS the past few seasons, when off back to back SU losses. On the other hand, during the same stretch, Virginia is only 1-4 ATS when off back to back SU victories. Note that the Cavs lost 28-14 (to NC State) in their most recent home game. In fact, they're just 2-3 ATS at home this season. Their two home wins against 1-A teams came by only four combined points. Looking at the last meeting here and we find that Virginia was a -7.5 point favorite but that Duke won outright, 28-17. The Blue Devils are 11-4 ATS their last 15 against teams with a winning record. They've had Virginia's number the past couple of seasons and I look for them to give their hosts all they can handle once again. *10 Best Bet
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11-12-11 | Wyoming v. Air Force -15.5 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 41 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on AIR FORCE. Just looking at the records of these teams, many might wonder why Air Force is such a big favorite. After all, the Falcons are only 5-4 while Wyoming is 5-3. However, I feel the Falcons are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one quite comfortably. Lets take a closer look. As is often the case, records can be deceiving. To its credit, Wyoming did beat an "ok" San Diego State team, one which beat Air Force. That was by far the Cowboys' most impressive victory though. Their other wins came against 1-AA teams Weber State and Texas State University. The other two wins came against Bowling Green and UNLV, both bad teams with losing records. Keep in mind that the Cowboys also lost 63-19 vs. Utah State. Last week, they fought hard vs. TCU but came up short. That loss figures to be tough to bounce back from, as they really "left it all on the field." Granted, the Falcons don't boast many victories over big name or good teams either. They have at least beaten both Navy and Army though. Having also played Boise State tough (11 point loss as +30 point favorite) on the blue turf, the Falcons have shown they can play with anyone. More importantly, for this particular case, they've also demonstrated that they can blow teams out, in the recent 42-0 destruction of New Mexico. The Falcons won by "only" six at Wyoming last season. However, a closer look reveals that they had a 27-12 edge in first downs in that game and had massive statistical edges across the board. They dominated that game, after falling behind early. The Falcons also shutout the Cowboys the last game here. While the Falcons are off a big (won 24-0!) second half, the Cowboys are off a bad (outscored 14-3) one - I feel that'll prove significant here, from a momentum standpoint. The Falcons have won six of seven November games the past couple of seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion, earning the cover along the way. *10 Personal Favorite
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11-12-11 | Rice +16.5 v. Northwestern | 6-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on RICE. Off a huge upset win at Nebraska, I feel that the Wildcats are ripe for an "emotional letdown" against a "lowly" non-conference foe like Rice. However, even if that wasn't the case, I look for the Wildcats to get a tougher test than they're probably expecting. While this may be a non-conference affair, its a very big game for both teams. Northwestern checks in at 4-5 and still needing a couple of wins to become bowl eligible. Their remaining two games are both at home though. So, in theory, they could afford to lose here. Of course, it should be easier for them to beat Rice than Michigan State, which makes it very important for them to win here. (The other is a winnable game vs. Minnesota) That said, winning and winning by more than two touchdowns is an entirely different matter. Note that two of the Wildcats' four wins have come by seven or fewer points. The only teams they defeated by more than that were Indiana, a team which is currently 1-9 overall and 0-6 in conference play AND Eastern Illinois, a 1-AA team. (They were favored by -33 in that one but won by only 21.) All nine NW games were decided by 21 or fewer points and six of them were decided by 10 or less. Note that Northwestern is an ugly 3-11 ATS when laying points the past few seasons. While its a very big game for Northwestern's bowl chances, its a "must win" game for the Owls, if they want to keep their bowl eligibility alive. They've got three wins and need to "win out" to get to six wins. Obviously, as they're very large moneyline underdogs here, the odds are against them. However, with a home date against a weak Tulane team on deck, if they could somehow win this one, they'd still have a chance. With that "glimmer of hope" available to them, I expect them to go all out. These teams faced each other last season, at Rice. The Wildcats won that one by 17 but the final stats were much closer than indicated by the score. The Owls returned a ton of starters from that team (among the most returning starters in the country) and they'll have payback on their minds. Off an important win last time out, the Owls are now 6-3 ATS in November the past few seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. *9
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11-12-11 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech +17.5 | 66-6 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Cowboys are obviously among the most dangerous teams in the country. However, I feel that this line is too high. Note that Oklahoma State had its hands full last week, winning by "only" seven. The Red Raiders have five wins and need one more to become bowl eligible. They know that winning this one won't be easy but they also know that their final two games will also be difficult, as they're against Missouri and Baylor and neither will be played here. Playing their home finale, I expect them to go all out and give their best effort in this one. While they didn't cover at Texas last week, the Red Raiders are still 2-1 ATS as underdogs this season. They're also 2-1 ATS the last three times that they were off b2b SU losses and 2-0 ATS the last two times that they played a home game with an O/U line of greater than 70. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. *9
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11-12-11 | Nebraska v. Penn State +4 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. How will the Nittany Lions react to the Paterno scandal/firing? While nobody will know for sure, until the game is actually played. However, my hunch is that they come ready to play. Regardless of how they may feel about Paterno (most still love him but are probably pretty confused) this is a team, school and community that feels the whole world is against them. This is their chance to stand up and show that Penn State is bigger than all that and that they (the players) had nothing to do with any of the alleged atrocities. All that nastiness aside, this is a big football game between a pair of top programs. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 in conference play, coming off a bye, playing at home and have won seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Huskers lost outright (at -17.5 point favorites!) vs. Northwestern, AT Nebraska, last week. (Penn State won by double-digits AT Northwestern!) Yet, the Huskers are favored and because of the scandal, the line has climbed even higher. I feel that's giving us excellent value. With last week's loss, the Huskers are only 3-6 ATS in November the past few seasons. They're also 3-4 ATS, when off a conference loss, during that span. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line ranging between 42.5 and 45. I expect them to band together as a team and to go all out, earning at least another cover. *10
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11-10-11 | Ohio v. Central Michigan +7 | Top | 43-28 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 28 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. I won with Ohio last week, so I certainly respect the Bobcats. That said, I feel they're over-valued this week. The win over Temple was an emotional one. Facing a "lesser opponent" it may be easy for the Bobcats to suffer a slight "letdown" here. Either way, the win over Temple has caused this line to be a bit higher than it would have been otherwise. Therefore, its worth noting that the Bobcats are a poor 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During the same stretch, the Chippewas were 4-2-1 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. True, the Chippewas have only three wins on the season, go to along with an admittedly very poor pointspread record. That said, their schedule has hardly been favorable. Indeed, seven of their last nine games have come on the road, including three straight. A closer look at the results shows that the Chippewas have actually been extremely competitive, dating back to the beginning of October. On 10/1, they won outright vs. Northern Illinois. (The Huskies won 45-14 Tuesday night, improving to 5-1 in MAC play. The Chippewas are the only MAC team that has beaten them.) Dating back to the win over the Huskies, ALL five of Central Michigan's conference games have been decided by seven or fewer points. The last three have ALL been decided by a total of just eight points. They had scores of 24-21, 23-22 (a win) and 24-21. I won with underdog Ohio the last time that these teams met. That was back in the 2009 Mac Championship game, played at Ford Field. Central Michigan was a -13.5 point favorite in that one but won by "only" 10. I look for the underdog to get the cash as this one again proves closer than many will be expecting. *10
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11-08-11 | Western Michigan +11.5 v. Toledo | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. With such a high pointspread, its natural to assume that there's a large talent gap between these teams. With all due respect to Toledo, I don't believe that's the case. Rather, I feel that the Broncos are currently very under-valued and feel that they're capable of giving Toledo everything it can handle. The Broncos are off a bye last week, giving them extra prep. Prior to that, they defeated Ball State by double-digits. They've got five wins on the season and obviously really want a sixth. The Broncos may only be 5-4 but they've had to face three BCS schools, all of them on the road. They lost 34-10 at Michigan to start the season. However, a closer look reveals that they actually limited the Wolverines to 288 total yards of offense. So, the 34 points allowed was a little misleading - although that game was shortened due to lightning. In fact, both teams had exactly 17 first downs, the total yardage was 288-279 and the Broncos had a significant edge in time of possession. So, if not for two defensive TDs by Michigan, that game was actually very close. The Broncos other two games vs. BCS schools saw them win outright at Connecticut, where the Huskies are usually tough AND saw them lose by just three at Illinois. So, this is a team which has proven to be capable of playing tough against top tier opponents, even when facing them on the road. Looking at those three road games vs. BCS foes and we find that the Broncos were underdogs of +3, +13.5 and +14 points. Now, facing a team from the MAC, one which is off a heart-braking loss and which is just 5-4 overall, the Broncos find themselves as double-digit underdogs. Considering that they were only +1.5 at Northern Illinois, the team which just defeated Toledo and which is currently on top (tied with Toledo) of the MAC, I feel this much bigger line is providing excellent value. As noted, Toledo is off a "heartbreaker." I had the 'over,' so was thrilled to seem them score so many points. However, scoring 60 and still losing (they gave up 63!) figures to be rather disheartening. The Broncos have had this game circled since last season. That's because Toledo upset them (WMI was -3.5) at Western Michigan last season. Note that Western Michigan had a whopping 416-268 edge in total yards in that game, to go along with a 24-11 advantage in first downs. In other words, that game could have easily had a different result. The last meeting here at Toledo came in 2009. The Rockets were laying -7.5 for that one. Yet, Western Michigan jumped out to a 41-12 first half lead and cruised to a 58-26 victory. In fact, after years of struggling here, Western Michigan has now won two in row at Toledo. I'll gladly grab the generous points but another outright win won't surprise. *10 Best Bet
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11-05-11 | Oregon v. Washington +16.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Tough spot for the Ducks here, as they've got a huge showdown vs. Stanford on deck, followed by USC after that. It could be easy for them to get caught looking past the Huskies. That would prove costly though as this is a very solid Washington team, particularly at home. The Ducks closed out October by beating Washington State by only 15. Doesn't sound too bad but considering that the Cougars stink and that the Ducks were laying -37.5, it wasn't a very impressive result. Note that the Ducks are just 1-5 ATS their last six in November. The Huskies beat Arizona by double-digits here last week and are undefeated at home. They've averaged 39 points per game here, putting up more than 435 yards of offense. They're 6-2 ATS on the season, including 3-1 ATS as underdogs. They're 5-1 ATS their last six in November and I look for them to give their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. *9
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11-05-11 | LSU v. Alabama -4 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. As you know, this is a huge game. And that's putting it lightly. Indeed, considering that the SEC has won six straight National titles, the winner of this game will be favored to win the National Championship. Both teams are very good. Both are very well coached. Both have dominated their opponents. That's led to both also having excellent pointspread records. The Tide have the #1 defense in the country but LSU is right behind them at #3. Many bettors will see all those similarities and determine that the teams are very equal. They'll expect that to translate to a close game and will therefore be quick to grab the points with the underdog Tigers. I've always fared very well in these "huge" games between "evenly matched" teams, partly as I don't worry so much about the pointspread. True, the teams may well be evenly matched (later, you'll see I argue I feel Alabama is a little better on both sides of the ball) but that often doesn't translate to a close game on the field. Also, games here are rarely close. The Tide are 25-1 their last 26 here and 21 of those wins came by at least 13 points, 22 of them by at least nine. While I do think LSU is an excellent team, I personally feel Alabama is better on both sides of the ball. The Tide allow a mere 6.9 points per game and just 180.5 yards. They've hosted teams like Arkansas and Tennessee while visiting venues like Florida and Penn State. Yet, no team has scored more than 14 points against them. They're recorded two shutouts. At home, the Tide are allowing only 5.4 points per game and 166 yards. The LSU defense is also very good (11.5 ppg game allowed) but is allowing 70 more yards (251.4) per game than Alabama. On the road, the Tigers are allowing 15.2 points and 325 yards. Both offenses are averaging about the same number of points. LSU averages 39.2. Alabama averages 39.4. However, the Tide are averaging a much better 457.6 (464.2 at home) yards per game, while the Tigers are averaging 372 yards per game, just 345.7 on the road. The Tide are playing with revenge from a loss at LSU last year and Saban's teams have long been "money" in the revenge role. The Tide won by nine against the Tigers here in 2009 and I look for them to come away with another win and cover here. *10 Main Event
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11-05-11 | Arizona State v. UCLA +9 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on UCLA. Off an embarrassing loss, the Bruins bounced back with a solid win over California last week. That gives them some positive momentum here. Although I'd successfully played against them earlier in the season, I had the Bruins in the game against Cal. At the time, prior to them beating the Bears, I noted that I thought that they were better than we'd seen and that I expected them to show it. After they did just that, apparently Arizona State coach Dennis Erickson agrees. He was quoted as saying: "UCLA has a lot of talent on their football team. They totally dominated that Cal game, which Cal is an awfully good football team. They have a lot of talent. They're good on defense and offense, when they get the ball running." Erickson went on to say: "We're going to have our hands full. Defensively, they run around, they're down four. They've got seven or eight guys that play that have been heavily recruited we tried to recruit some of them ourselves." The Bruins are 4-1 the last five times that they hosted the Sun Devils, including a 23-13 win here in 2009. The Bruins are fighting for a bowl berth here and I look for them to give their guests all they can handle. *10
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11-05-11 | Cincinnati v. Pittsburgh +3.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I respect both these teams and feel they're fairly evenly matched. That being said, I feel that getting a field goal or more with the home team is providing us with excellent value. At 6-1, the Bearcats come in with the better overall record. That's worked in our favor, helping us in terms of some added line value. However, a closer look at their schedule reveals that none of the Bearcats' six wins have come against an elite team. The Bearcats did win at USF last time out, perhaps their most impressive victory. However, that win came by only three points and the Bearcats gave up more than 400 yards through the air. Additionally, the Bulls enter the weekend with an 0-3 conference record. So, they haven't exactly lived up to expectations. The Bearcats other five victories have come against Austin Peay, Akron, NC State and Miami Ohio. The first three were at home and the Wolfpack was really banged-up when the Bearcats played them. The loss came at Tennessee and the Bearcats lost that one by 22 points. So, while the 6-1 record may sound impressive, the Bearcats have yet to prove they beat a quality team by more than a field goal on the road. While obviously improved this year, let's not completely forget that this Bearcats team went just 4-8 last season. On the other hand, the Panthers returned numerous starters from the team that went 8-5 last season. They also upgraded their coach. They've only got a 4-3 record but one of the losses came by three points vs. Notre Dame and another came by four points on the road at Iowa, a game which they were dominating most of the way. So, they could easily have a better record. Last time out, the Panthers shook off their first 2-game losing streak of the season by crushing UConn by 15 points. I already mentioned that the Bearcats gave up more than 400 yards through the air in their last game. Now, I'll note that the Panthers put up 433 passing yards in their last. While I already noted that Cincy's 3-point win vs. South Florida was perhaps its most impressive, note that the Panthers hammered those same Bulls by a score of 44-17. The Panthers were slight road favorites (won 28-10) at Cincy last season. Now, an arguably better team is getting points at home. I look for Pitt. to pull off the "upset" here, however, in what could well be a close game, (last game here was 45-44) I'll grab the points. *10 Best Bet
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11-05-11 | Washington State v. California -8.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I successfully played against the Bears last Saturday and they got crushed at UCLA. However, I also successfully played on them in their previous game here (their last here in Northern Cal.) and they blew out Utah. Back "home," in one of their best roles and facing a team which they have dominated, I expect the Bears to bounce back with a double-digit win and cover. Both teams badly need this game if they want to give themselves a chance at a bowl. Some might argue that the Cougars need it more as they're just 3-5 with four games remaining. However, I'd argue that they know they are unlikely to make a bowl and don't really believe deep down that they have much of a shot. On the other hand, with four victories and with this home game vs. Washington State and another home game vs. Oregon State on deck, the Bears know they should be able to reach six victories and believe that they will do so. That said, they also know that they close the season with road games at Stanford and at Arizona State. In other words, they absolutely need to take care of business against the Cougars, the worst team in the conference. Note that the Bears have dominated this series with six straight victories. This year's Bears have a more balanced offense than the Cougars to go along with a superior defense. After winning three of their first four, all wins coming against bad teams, the Cougars have come back down to earth with four straight losses. They're off a double-digit loss at Oregon last week and are now playing their final game outside the state of Washington this season. Their last three losses have come by 15, 23 and 30 points. The Cougars are an awful 1-8 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. During the same stretch, the Bears were 7-1 ATS as home favorites int he -7.5 to -10 range. That includes a 15-point victory over Fresno State in that role this season. I expect the Bears to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon, continuing their dominance in this series and taking another step towards becoming bowl eligible. *10 Personal Favorite
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11-05-11 | Stanford v. Oregon State +21.5 | 38-13 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on OREGON STATE. Stanford continues to impress. With that continued success comes higher and higher lines though and I feel this one has gotten a little out of control. This is the Beavers' homecoming game and they feel that they've got a score to settle, after being blown out 38-0 at Stanford last year. Note that they were only +13.5 for that game. At the time, Stanford was #7. Now, playing at home, we're getting even way more points. The Beavers are also catching the Cardinal in a very tough spot. That's because Stanford is off the big win at USC and has a huge game vs. Oregon on deck. Listed as underdogs, the Beavers won 38-28 here against Stanford in 2009. Including that outright win, they're 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they were getting points. I look for them to give their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. *9
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11-03-11 | Florida State v. Boston College +15.5 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. As usual, the Seminoles are a talented team. Also, off three straight double-digit victories, they're really starting to roll. The betting public knows all about these things though and they also know that Boston College has a poor overall record. Naturally, many will be quick to "lay the points" here. As a result, we're getting a very generous line with the home underdog Eagles here. I feel it will prove to be too high. Yes, the Seminoles' three straight blowout victories have been impressive. However, keep in mind that two of them were at home (both against mediocre opponents) and that the lone road game was at Duke. Let's also remember that, before the winning streak, the Seminoles had lost three straight. The Seminoles are still 1-2 on the road for the season and that includes an outright loss at Wake Forest, when they were laying -10 points. Going back further finds them at a mediocre 7-7 SU/ATS their last 14 road games, including an 1-2 SU/ATS mark when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Perhaps more importantly, note that the Seminoles are still an ugly 4-7 ATS (5-6 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when off two or more consecutive victories. There is no denying that the Eagles have endured a disappointing season. That said, they're off their best performance of the season, a 28-17 outright win at Maryland. They ran the ball for an awesome 372 yards (on 62 carries) in that game and that type of performance should give them plenty of confidence and momentum here. Additional confidence should be gained by the fact that Boston College has really played well against Florida State in recent years. Last season, listed as a +22.5 point underdog, the Eagles lost by only five points (24-19) and that was at Tallahassee. The previous season, playing here at Boston College, the underdog Eagles won outright, a 28-21 upset win. Note that November has been a very good month for the Eagles the past couple of seasons, as they've won six of seven November games. That included a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) record last November and they were underdogs for two of those games. Despite the poor early results, I feel that the Eagles have a talented defense, better than most probably realize. This is their chance to show the world that they're better than their record indicates. I look for an inspired effort and for that to lead to a pointspread victory. *10 Best Bet
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11-02-11 | Temple v. Ohio +4 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on OHIO. Huge game for both teams here. Although both teams are 5-3, admittedly, Temple has accomplished some more impressive results than Ohio. The Owls won big at Maryland and they only lost by four at Penn State. Ohio hasn't done anything of that magnitude. However, that's partly as the Bobcats haven't had the same opportunity to do so. Additionally and perhaps more importantly, those "impressive results" came early on in the season for the Owls. Entering this game, its Ohio which is off a much better performance. With Ohio "getting points" here, note that all three of the Bobcats' losses have come by eight or fewer points and that their last two losses came by one and three points. Last time out, however, the Bobcats shook off those losses and finally put it all together. They went on the road and won by 17, at Akron. Granted, Akron is among the worst teams. However, that still doesn't mean that a double-digit blowout victory doesn't help a team's confidence level. Despite playing on the road, the Bobcats outgained the Zips by a whopping 556-249 margin. On the other hand, Temple stumbled last time out. Facing a weak Bowling Green team, the Owls managed less than 300 yards of total offense and were defeated 13-10. Both teams have since had a "bye," having now played since 10/22. I expect the extra time in between games to favor the team off the big win and with the experienced coach (Frank Solich) over the team off a loss and with a coach (Steve Addazio) in his first year with the team. Lets not forget that Solich's Bobcats went into Temple and beat the Bobcats fairly handily. The Bobcats had a 280-146 advantage in second half yards in that game, pulling away for a 31-23 victory. Including that result, Ohio was 5-1 SU/ATS in November the past two seasons. Going back further finds them at 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight November contests, including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four November home games. Going back still further finds them at 14-6 ATS their last 20 home November games. This one could well be close, so I'll gladly grab the points. That said, I look for the Bobcats to improve on their impressive November numbers with an outright win. *10 Main Event
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10-29-11 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State +7.5 | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. With a 6-1 record and a top 15 ranking, the Badgers are a talented and dangerous team. That said, they're also off their first loss of the season. For a team that had dreams of going undefeated and potentially playing for the national title, that can be very tough to bounce back from. That loss was particularly devastating, as the Badgers had battled all the way back from a deficit only to still fall short. Even coach Bielema acknowledged: "This will sting and they will carry this memory with them for the rest of their lives - and it's going to be difficult." At 4-3, its been a disappointing first season for Luke Fickell, as coach of Ohio State. That said, this is still a very proud and talented program. Also, unlike the Badgers - the Buckeyes are coming off a victory in their last game. So, in addition to having homefield advantage, they've also got some positive momentum. Naturally, they'd love to knock off the ranked Badgers, as their season would suddenly start to look a whole lot better, if that were to occur. Fickell had this to say of how last week's victory can help gain some positive momentum: "...this game is a lot more fun when you're winning and this game's a lot more fun when things are going your way a little bit. I know you've got to make those things happen, but that momentum is so huge, that that's what drives you to do this stuff. And those guys maybe haven't had that in a while, so they're excited about it." We know the Badgers defense is better than it showed last week. This is also an improving Ohio State defense though. Last week, they forced three turnovers and limited Illinois to seven points and 285 total yards. Meanwhile, the offense finally saw tailback Dan "Boom" Herron return from his six game suspension. His return paid immediate dividends as he ran for more than 100 yards and scored a touchdown. Lets not forget that Ohio State's lone home loss came vs. Michigan State - the same team that just beat Wisconsin - and that they only lost that one by three points. While most came under Tressel, its still worth noting that the Buckeyes are 15-4 ATS their last 19 here. With the cover at Nebraska, they're also 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. Catching the Badgers "thinking about what could have been," I expect them to improve on those stats on Saturday evening. *10 Main Event
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10-29-11 | California v. UCLA +5.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on UCLA. I've successfully played against the Bruins this season. I also won with the Bears last week. This week, however, I feel the "value" lies with the underdog Bruins. One of the main reasons Cal was my "Personal Favorite" last Saturday was that the Bears were in a great spot. They were playing on a "long week," as their previous game had come on a Thursday. They were also catching Utah playing back to back road games and having had to travel across the entire country, on a "regular" week. The Bears jumped all over the Utes and cruised to a 34-10 victory. This week, however, the Bears are playing on a "regular" week while facing an opponent which has had some extra preparation - as this time its UCLA which is off a Thursday game. As you may have seen, UCLA got embarrassed (at Arizona) in that Thursday game, much as Cal had the previous Thursday. While that game did result in several suspensions, I also expect it to be have a motivating effect. They weren't happy with their performance and badly want to improve here. Of course, back to back blowout losses against the Bears the last two years should also provide the Bruins with some added "hunger" here. Most importantly, the Bruins desperately need victories if they want to entertain any thoughts of a bowl game. While the Bears won as the "home" team last week, they've long struggled in road favorite role. In fact, they're an awful 12-31-1 ATS the last 44 times that they were laying points on the road, including a 3-10 ATS mark as road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. More recently, the Bears are 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were laying points on the road, including 1-4 ATS as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. This is a critical game for the Bruins, as they need three wins in their final five games to become bowl eligible. Knowing that two of those games are on the road (Utah and USC) and that another home game comes against a solid Arizona State team, make this essentially a "must win." I expect them to bounce back with their best effort, leading to at least a cover. *10
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10-29-11 | Navy v. Notre Dame -21 | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I'm aware that Navy won outright each of the last two years and also that the Midshipmen have enjoyed pointspread success in this series in recent years. I'm also aware that Navy has historically fared well at the betting window, as a large underdog. That said, I feel that the Midshipmen will be in over their heads on Saturday. This is not as good a Navy team as we've seen in recent years. The Midshipmen check in at just 2-5 and off five straight losses. Navy's only two victories came against 1-AA Delaware and a weak Western Kentucky team too. Granted, four of the Midshipmen's five losses came by three or fewer points. So, its not like they haven't been competitive. Still, those type of close losses can take a toll, particularly when they happen in back to back games. Note that after back to back close losses against South Carolina and Air Force, Navy was destroyed by a score of 63-35 by Southern Miss. Now, they're again off back to back close losses and facing arguably the most dangerous opponent on their schedule. The Irish figure to be in a foul mood. This is a very talented team, one which stumbled out of the gate before getting on track earlier this month. Notre Dame lost last week against USC though and knows it can't afford back to back losses. Perhaps more importantly, the Irish are 71-12-1 all-time against Navy and they know they need to right the ship in the series. The Irish are better on both sides of the ball and they'll likely be catching Navy without its starting quarterback. Even if he does come back to lead the offense, he won't be able to do anything to help the Navy defense! The Midshipmen gave up more than 500 yards last time out. In its last three games, Navy has allowed a combined 122 points and 1511 yards, an average of more than 40 points and 500 yards. Notre Dame's last two victories came by 26 and 28 points. So, the Irish are certainly capable of winning in "blowout" fashion. That's exactly what I expect them to occur, as the Irish take out two years of frustation on a demoralized and overmatched Navy team. *9
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10-29-11 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -7 | Top | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Off back to back losses and with back to back road games on deck, the Tar Heels badly need this one. I expect this talented team to respond with its best effort. The Demon Deacons are solid but far from unbeatable and they tend to struggle against quality opposition. They barely beat Duke (24-23) last week and they were hammered 38-17 the previous week. Earlier in the season, they lost by seven at Syracuse. Their best road win came at Boston College and the Eagles aren't as good as the Tar Heels this year. In fact, they're 0-4 in the ACC and 1-6 overall. While a home win vs. Florida State was impressive, note that the Deacons are an ugly 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they faced a team with a winning record. They're 4-10 SU/ATS their last 14 road lined games overall. After getting dominated their previous game, the Deacons were actually outgained on both the ground and through the air by Duke last week. The Blue Devils also controlled the clock, had a 16-minute edge in time of possession. This will be their first time playing back to back road games this season. The Tar Heels are 3-0 SU the last three times that they were off back to back losses and they figure to be in a nasty mood here. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. *10
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10-29-11 | Air Force v. New Mexico +31 | 42-0 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW MEXICO. I like and respect the Falcons. In fact, I cashed a ticket on them in their last SU victory, a 35-34 victory over Navy. That said, I feel this line is too high. Since the 1-point victory over Navy, the Falcons have lost three straight. All three defeats came by double-digits. Granted, those losses all came against opponents which are much better than New Mexico. Still, being asked to win by more than four touchdowns, when on a 3-game losing streak, is asking a lot. Note that the Falcons did beat 1-AA Tennessee State by 39 (as a 40 point favorite) but won by "only" 17 (as a 34-point favorite) against 1-AA South Dakota. While they were larger favorites for those ATS losses, note that the Falcons are also just 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were favored in the -21.5 to -31 range. The Lobos are not a good team and they were crushed by TCU last time out. Off that embarrassing loss, they should be anxious to at least deliver a better effort here. The Lobos covered the spread at Air Force last year though, losing by "only" 25 points, as 35 point underdogs. The previous year, they lost by 24. While it hasn't shown up in the W/L column, with 15 returning starters, this New Mexico team was supposed to be the strongest of those three teams. I look for them to put up a tougher fight than most will be expecting. *8
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10-27-11 | Rice v. Houston -27.5 | Top | 34-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on RICE. Its always a bit "scary" to go against a team like Houston. The Cougars have a record setting QB in Kase Keenum, a top 20 ranking and they're among the highest scoring teams in the country. Off back to back blowout victories, few will dare go against them here. That said, I feel that very sentiment has caused this line to become too high. Consider that last week the Cougars opened at -20.5 and closed at -24 vs. Marshall, a team arguably not as talented as Rice. (Marshall did beat Rice but only by four and that game was at Marshall.) That game was actually the highest line that Houston had see too, with the exception of a game vs. 1-AA Georgia State. Now, they're laying a much bigger number. While some may argue otherwise, with the exception of the opening game vs. UCLA, Rice is arguably as capable as any team that Houston has played. Indeed, the Cougars have played a very soft schedule. True, the Owls are off a disappointing loss - but they're still a team which returned 17 starters from last season, one of the most experienced teams in the country. Speaking of last season's team - the Owls actually beat the Cougars last year. Listed as +9.5 point underdogs, they won outright by a score of 34-31, a result which should give them confidence that they can hang with Houston here. (Although Keenum didn't play.) The Owls have played a tougher schedule than the Cougars, as they've faced the likes of Texas, Baylor, Southern Miss, Purdue and Tulsa. They faced the first three of those on the road, too. Yet, this is by far the biggest line that they've had for one of their games. Note that while they have been blown out a few times, they haven't lost any game by more than 25 points. The Cougars failed to cover in their lone Thursday game this season (7-point win vs Utep) and I look for them to receive a tough test than most will be expecting here. *10
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10-22-11 | Utah v. California -1 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I'll start by conceding that the Utes looked better than the Golden Bears last week. Utah went on the road and outplayed Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Cal was beaten soundly by USC. Those results have worked in our favor though, as we now just need the Bears to win the game - instead of needing them to cover a small spread. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. While I respect the Utes, who are a well-coached team, I feel the schedule favors the Bears here - and I expect them to bounce back with their very best effort. While the Utes are surely hungry for their first official Pac-12 win, they're now playing their second straight road game - and they've had to travel from Pittsburgh to the West Coast in between those games. They're also still without their #1 QB. On the other hand, the Bears played right here last week. Plus, their game came on Thursday. So, not only did they have no travel to contend with, they also had some extra time in between games. Note that the Bears are 2-0 SU/ATS the last two times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points and that they're also 2-0 ATS when playing with eight day's rest in between games. The Bears need this game every bit as much as the Utes. I believe this will prove to a favorable matchup for them and I look for the homefield and scheduling advantage to ultimately prove the difference. *10 Personal Favorite
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10-22-11 | Oregon v. Colorado +32 | 45-2 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on COLORADO. Obviously, Oregon is the stronger team. However, I feel that this is too many points. The Ducks are off a big win over Arizona State, arguably their most important win thus far. Off that big win, dealing with some injuires and now playing on the road, I feel that asking them to win by more than four touchdowns is asking too much. Note that QB Darron Thomas is currently looking like he'll play - however, he may be at less than 100%. Meanwhile, LaMichael James remains questionable. While they've suffered a couple of blowout road losses lately, the Buffaloes remain a profitable 9-4 ATS their last 13 lined home games. Only one of their losses has come by more than 28 points this season and that came on the road, at Stanford. They haven't lost by more than four points at home. While they'll likely lose by more than that here, I do look for them to keep things closer than expected. *9
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10-22-11 | Memphis v. Tulane -12.5 | Top | 33-17 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on TULANE. The Green Wave just saw their head coach (Bob Toledo) "resign" on Tuesday. That will likely prevent many from backing the Green Wave here. I say "Good riddance." Toledo was 15-40 here at Tulane, never making it to a bowl game. Last week, his team didn't show up in a blowout loss to Utep. While the idea is often that a team can't respond positively to a mid-season coaching change, if the situation is right, they most certainly can - just look at Arizona on Thursday night, the Wildcats played their best game of the season, after getting a new coach. In this case, I feel the situation sets up very well for the Green Wave to start the "new era" with a convincing victory. For starters, Toledo will be replaced by interim head coach Mark Hutson. Hutson has been serving as the offensive coordinator, so he's already familiar with the team and vice versa. Additionally, the Green Wave are facing perhaps the perfect opponent. Not only is Memphis a bad team but the Tigers are also currently really struggling. Memphis, which ranks 116th in the country in scoring with just 14 points per game, is 0-4 its last for games, getting outscored by a 143-54 margin. Combine the terrible offense with the fact that the Memphis defense gives up 499.1 yards and 36.4 points per game and its easy to see why Memphis is among the worst teams in the country. Note that the Tigers are a terrible 8-20 ATS (2-26 SU!) the last 28 times that they were getting points. Despite failing to cover last week, Tulane is still 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons when off two or more consecutive losses. I expect the Green Wave to bounce back in "blowout" fashion here *10 Big Easy
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10-22-11 | North Carolina +11.5 v. Clemson | 38-59 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. With a perfect record and a top 10 ranking, Clemson is clearly a good team. The Tar Heels don't have a perfect record or a Top 10 ranking. However, I feel that they are also a good team; one which is capable of competing (and defeating) against this Clemson squad. Both UNC's losses came by a touchdown or less, vs. Miami and at Georgia Tech. Speaking of Georgia Tech, the Tigers will face the Yellow Jackets for the fourth time in the last three seasons next week. While he may not be able to completely prevent it from happening, Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney knows his team better not get caught looking ahead to the Georgia Tech game. He was quoted as saying this of the Tar Heels: "North Carolina is another tough challenge for us this week. They're as good as anyone we've played up to this point. They're a really good football team that's capable of beating anyone on any given day. They have a lot of future NFL players on their roster." Last year's meeting between these teams was decided by just five points. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire. *9
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10-22-11 | Kansas State v. Kansas +11.5 | 59-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on KANSAS. The Wildcats are rolling. The Jayhawks are reeling. That will likely cause the majority of the betting public to favor the visitors. More importantly, the recent results from both teams have caused K-State to be a fairly heavy favorite here, as they're being asked to lay double-digits. For a rivalry game that the underachieving home underdog desperately wants and needs, I feel the line will prove to be too high. The Wildcats have been playing a number of "close" games recently, a "habit" teams can fall into. In fact, their last four games have all been decided by a touchdown or less, two of them by four or fewer points. Although they're certainly not far from home, it should be noted that this is the only time that the Wildcats will play back to back road games. Sure, they'd love to blow out their "rivals," but with next week's game vs. Oklahoma suddenly taking on real meaning - should they win this week and pull off the shocking upset in that one - if there's ever a time to look past Kansas, this could well be it. While they still got "blown out," the Jayhawks did "cover" last week vs. Oklahoma. As ugly as things have been on the road, they'd still won two of their three home games, prior to the Oklahoma loss, and the lone loss came by 11 points. While this game is always important in the state of Kansas, the Jayhawks have had this one circled as they were embarrassed by the Wildcats last season. The Wildcats are only 1-3 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road favorites and I expect them to have a much tougher fight than expected here. *9
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10-22-11 | Oklahoma State v. Missouri +7.5 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on MISSOURI. The Cowboys are a dangerous team with one of the top QB/receiver tandems in the country. They've proven that they can win on the road. However, the Tigers are also a very capable team themselves, one which is generally tough to beat here at home. The Tigers crushed Iowa State by a score of 52-7 here last week. While the competition has admittedly been rather weak, the Tigers are 3-0 here at home, outscoring teams by a 46-7.7 margin. The Cowboys are off a 12-point win at Texas. Give them credit for that, as winning at Texas is no small task - even this year. That said, that game hinged on a couple of key plays (as most games do) and could have easily been closer than it was. Either way, it was a much harder fought contest than Missouri was involved in and now they're playing their second straight road game and their fourth road game in their last five games overall. That can be a tough spot - note that the Cowboys won by only one point the last time that they played the second of back to back road games. While OSU has an edge on offense, I don't feel the gap is as big as the betting public likely believes. Remember, Missouri ranks 13th in the country in total offense at nearly 500 yards per game. They're able to both run and pass effectively. Perhaps more importantly, I feel that the Tiger may have the superior defense. Despite playing road games at places like Oklahoma, Arizona State and Kansas State, the Tigers are still only giving up 20.3 points per game. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are giving up more than 27 game, including 29.3 (and 441 ypg) on the road. The Tigers typically like these "high-scoring games" here, as they are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 63 to 70 range. The Tigers have won 10 straight at Faurot Field. I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle and then some. *10 Best Bet
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10-21-11 | West Virginia v. Syracuse +14.5 | Top | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on SYRACUSE. I really like how this one sets up for the home underdog. While they failed to cover for the second straight week, the Orange are off a 37-34 road win at Tulane. They're now 4-2 SU on the season, including a 7-point win over Wake Forest and a 33-30 win over Toledo. In fact, a closer look shows that five of the Orange's six games have been decided by a touchdown or less, three of them by a field goal. The only exception was a road game at USC, which saw the Orange lose by 21, 38-17. Winning close (and OT) games figures to give them confidence here. The Mountaineers are always talented and they're off a strong 5-1 start. The lone loss came vs. LSU, one of the top teams in the country, so there's no shame in that. That said, they've only played one road game (at Maryland) and they only won that one by six. Off back to back big home wins (over a bad Bowling Green team and a mediocre UConn team that rarely plays well on the road) note that the Mountaineers are an awful 4-9 ATS (6-7 SU) the past few seasons, when off two or more consecutive SU victories. Listed as +13.5 point underdogs, the Orange won outright at West Virginia last season. This year's Syracuse team is even deeper and arguably stronger. That's saying a lot, considering that last year's team won a bowl game, finishing 8-5. Knowing they were able to beat WVU last year also figures to give the Orange some confidence here. West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen knows the Orange aren't "slouches." He was quoted as saying: "Syracuse is a good football team. They're 4-2. They figure out ways to win. Both of the opponents that they've lost to are 5-1. They play a very physical brand of football. Defensively, they pressure you a ton." Both teams are off a bye. WVU is 3-3 ATS (4-2 SU) the past couple of seasons, when off a bye. Syracuse, however, is 3-0 SU/ATS when off a bye. When given extra time to prepare, Doug Marrone led the Orange to a bowl win. Off their most recent regular season bye, which came last season, the Orange won outright at South Florida, as 8-point underdog. While I respect the Mountaineers, I feel this line is generously high and I look for the Orange to give them all they can handle (and then some) for the second straight year. *10
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10-18-11 | Florida International +3 v. Arkansas State | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. This is a big game for both teams. However, I would argue that its even more important for the visitors. Both are 4-2 overall but the Red Wolves are 2-0 in conference play while the Golden Panthers are 1-1. With Louisiana Lafayette off to a somewhat surprising perfect 4-0 (6-1 overall) start in conference play, that makes tonight's game even more important for the Panthers, as they can ill afford to fall to 1-2 in conference play. Keep in mind that this FIU team was considered one of the preseason favorites to win the Sun Belt. Also, remember, this was a team that returned 15 starters from last year's team which won the "Little Caesar's" Bowl. Note that FIU's conference loss came against Louisiana - that means that if they lost here they'd be 1-2 and would have losses against both teams which would be undefeated in conference play, as Arkansas State would move to 3-0. That would put the Panthers in an extremely difficult position - particularly with underachieving Troy on deck - a team which has won a minimum of eight games in five straight seasons and which has earned at least a share of the Sun Belt title in each. As FIU coach Mario Cristobal said of tonight's game: "...it is of tremendous importance." While the Panthers were putting together a winning season last year, note that the Red Wolves were just 3-9. They're clearly improved this season, however, this was not a team necessarily expected to challenge for the conference title. Even Arkansas State coach Hugh Freeze noted: "FIU probably has more talent and are deeper than some of us are ... " The Red Wolves have had success passing the ball this season and the FIU pass defense admittedly hasn't been a strength. That said, the Panthers have really played solid defense in their two road games and they've had plenty of time to prepare for the Red Wolves pass attack. Note that Florida International is 2-0 on the road, including a win at Louisville, and that it allowed 17 or fewer points in both of those road games. The Panthers beat the Red Wolves by seven last year. That was a 1-point game in the fourth quarter though and I feel this one could also be close. Note that the Red Wolves have seen back to back games decided by five or fewer points. The Panthers are already 2-0 ATS as underdogs and I look for them to earn at least another cover here. *10
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10-15-11 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -106 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Wildcats come to town riding high with an undefeated record and a top 20 national ranking. I believe that the unranked Red Raiders are favored for good reason though. The Red Raiders are 4-1 SU/ATS and their lone loss came against Texas A@M, a team which is arguably better than any K-State has faced. The Red Raiders have also dominated the Wildcats, winning five straight in the series. The last meeting resulted in a 66-14 destruction. The Wildcats have admittedly been stingy on defense. However, they haven't had to deal with an offense quite like this one. The Red Raiders rank in the top 10 nationally in points per game (45.8), passing yards (354.6) AND total yards per game (524.6). Their Quarterback (Seth Doege) is tied for second in Division 1-A football with 17 touchdowns. In fact, Doege has thrown at least three touchdowns in every game and he ranks sixth in the nation with 341.2 yards per game. The Red Raiders play at Oklahoma next. That means if they don't win here, they'll likely be looking at a 3-game losing streak, something they know they can ill afford. On the other hand, off their big win vs. Missouri and with instate rival Kansas on deck, its possible that the Wildcats have their minds on other things, if only slightly. Excluding "pushes," the Red Raiders are an impressive and profitable 64-36 ATS their last 100 home lined games. During that stretch, they've also gone 37-19 ATS when off a conference loss, including 5-2 ATS their last seven in that situation. I expect them to again bounce back, continuing their dominance in this series and covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite
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10-15-11 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +8 | 38-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. This is a case of "buying low" and "selling high." The Cowboys have been rolling and are off another blowout win. Meanwhile, the Longhorns were just blown out on National TV. In my opinion, that's created excellent line value. While its been a disappointing stretch, this is still a talented, proud and well-coached Longhorns teams. They were embarrassed by the Cowboys last year and by the Sooners last season. They've got a ton to prove and they've been terrific for more than a decade (13-0 L13!) after the Red River Rivalry game. I look for them to step up and earn at least the cover. *9
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10-15-11 | LSU v. Tennessee +18.5 | 38-7 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on TENNESSEE. While I have a lot of respect for LSU, I feel this will prove to be too many points. Note that last year's game was at LSU and the line was "only" -16.5. The Tigers won that one by only two points. Including that result, the Tigers are just 2-4 ATS the last six times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. Note that rhe Volunteers are 4-2 and that both losses have come by 10 points or less. Although very well coached, this figures to be a tough spot for LSU. The Tigers are off a big win vs. Florida and have a date with the defending champs (Auburn) on deck, followed by a huge showdown with Alabama. The Volss are 101-26 SU their last 127 home lined games. They're getting more than two touchdowns to work with here and I expect them to give LSU a tougher test than expected for the second straight season. *9
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10-15-11 | South Florida v. Connecticut +7.5 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on CONNECTICUT. Its true that the Huskies have not been impressive this season. They're just 2-4 on the season. However, a closer look reveals that three of the four losses came by a touchdown or less and that the only one that didn't was a road game at West Virgina, in their last game. The Bulls were arguably worse in their last game, as they were crushed by Pittsburgh. The Huskies are fairly tough defensively, particularly against the run. In fact, they've got the sixth-best run defense in the country, giving up an average of only 74.7 yards per game on the ground. Remember, this is a team that had eight wins last season and which returned 16 starters from that team. Speaking of 2010, last year's game was decided by three points (19-16 UConn win at USF) and with the Huskies playing their homecoming game and desperately in need of a win, I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire. *9
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10-15-11 | Utah v. Pittsburgh -6 | 26-14 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 28 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I played on the Utes when these teams faced each other last season. The Utes won by three points. I personally won my bet (at -2.5) but the line did bounce around, seeing stops at -3 and -3.5. So, the ATS result varied, depending on when and where one played. Either way, that opening day matchup was played at Utah, while this one will be played at Pittsburgh. Also, that as a very strong Utah team which finished with 10 wins. This year's team arguably isn't as good (they already have more losses than they had all of last regular season) and will be without QB Jordan Wynn. Meanwhile, in addition to playing at home, Pittsburgh is arguably much stronger. we've come to think of the Utes as being a good team every year and its true that they did look impressive in beating up on BYU a few weeks back. However, with the exception of that victory, they've looked really poor this season and the offense has really struggled since Wynn went down. (Note that Utah QB Jon Hays, who is replacing Wynn, has two touchdowns against four interceptions.) All three Utah has losses have come by greater than a touchdown, the last two each by a minimum of 17 points. The Panthers are 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they were off a conference loss. Playing with 'revenge' from last season, I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. *9
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10-15-11 | Baylor v. Texas A&M -8.5 | 28-55 | Win | 100 | 41 h 27 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on Texas A@M. The Bears check in with the better record. However, I feel the Aggies are favored by this much for good reason. In fact, if not for the fact that they didn't cover last week (and that Baylor did) this line could easily be in the double-digits. While both teams are off a victory last week, Baylor blew out Iowa State and Texas A&M "squeaked by" Texas Tech. However, beating up on Iowa State at home is a whole lot easier than traveling to Lubbock and beating the Red Raiders. Also, note that the Bears are 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were off a conference victory. During the same stretch, the Aggies were 7-2 ATS when coming off a conference win. The Aggies have dominated the Bears here over the years. They could really use a "big" win and I look for them to get one here. *9
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10-15-11 | Michigan v. Michigan State -2 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 27 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. The Wolverines are off to an impressive 6-0 start. However, five of those victories have come at home and the lone road game came at Northwestern - and that came last week. Now, they take a big step up in class and play their second straight road game. Some may note that the Wolverines beat Notre Dame and that the Spartans lost to those same Irish. However, lets not forget that Michigan faced Notre Dame at home (and needed a miracle win) while the Spartans did so on the road. Also, note that the Spartans won at Ohio State, arguably a far more impressive feat than anything that the Wolverines have yet to accomplish. The Spartans beat Michigan 34-17 at Michigan last season and also 26-20 here at Michigan State two seasons ago. Off a bye, they're well-rested and should be well-prepared. They're 7-4 ATS (8-3 SU) in October the past few seasons. While the Spartans' offense is very capable, the defense is outstanding. They've only permitted only six offensive touchdowns in five games. The Spartans are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete less than half of their passes. They've recorded seven interceptions and have recovered three fumbles. They'rea allowing an average of just 2.2 yards per carry on the ground. The Spartans are 17-3 SU the last 20 times that they were listed as favorites. I expect them to improve on those stats here, covering the very small number along the way. *10
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10-13-11 | USC v. California +3.5 | Top | 30-9 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I lost with the Bears last week (won with the Under in same game) but am fully willing to give them another shot on Thursday. Last week's game was on the road, vs. a very powerful Oregon offense. The Bears came ready to play - in fact, they were beating the Ducks 15-14 at halftime. However, they couldn't keep it up in the second half. They're back home now though, albeit at a home (AT&T Park) they're not that familiar with, and I expect a highly motivated effort for the full 60-minutes. Note that the Bears are 2-0 at "home" this season, going 10-5 their last 15 "home games." The Bears were blown out at USC last season and they definitely want to avoid a similar feat here. As coach Tedford noted: "That was definitely a long day. We have to make sure that doesn't happen again." The Trojans remain a dangerous team. QB Barkley lit up the Bears last season and he's got another year under his belt. Of course, it helps having Robert Woods, the #1 receiver in the Pac-12, at his disposal. While the Bears do have a good defense, they're missing their top corner and Woods will likely put up fairly big numbers again. That said, the Bears have an extremely talented top receiver themselves. Keenan Allen ranks #2 in the Pac-12 and he's looking forward to trying to keep up with Woods. Allen was quoted as saying this about Woods and Thursday's game: "I definitely look forward to it. We're both good athletes. I met him at the All-American camp. We hung out. I'm going to come out there and compete. He's obviously faster than I am, but I can make some moves." Allen and co. should be able to have a solid day against a USC secondary that gave up more than 400 passing yards against Arizona in its last game, a 48-41 home victory on 10/1. Prior to that, in their last road game, the Trojans got blown out 43-22 at Arizona State. The Trojans are just 3-7-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as road favorites and they're also only 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were off a conference victory. Meanwhile, during that same stretch, the Bears are 2-1 SU/ATS when off back to back losses. In the end, while this is a very important game for both teams, I expect the Bears to be a little "hungrier." They desperately want to avoid losing three in a row and to avoid getting blown out on National TV in back to back weeks. They're also looking for payback from the last couple of years in this series. I'll gladly grab the points but look for the Bears to rise to the occasion and score the uspet. *10 Main Event
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10-08-11 | Washington State v. UCLA Bruins -3.5 | Top | 25-28 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on UCLA. The Cougars have the better record. However, I believe that the Bruins are still the better team and that they'll show it on Saturday night. Great start for the Cougars, who are clearly an improved team. They'll be playing their third straight road game here though and, that being the case, I don't feel they're ready to win here at UCLA. The Bruins have had a tough schedule. Three of their five games have been on the road. I successfully played against them at Houston, so was not surprised to see them lose that one. They did win at Oregon State, although the Beavers have struggled. Last week, they lost at Stanford - so there's no shame in that. Of their two home games, one resulted in a double-digit win vs. SJ. State and the most recent resulted in a loss vs. Texas - no real shame in that either. That does make this a very important game though. Bruins are 38-18-1 all-time against the Cougars. They beat them 42-28 here last season and 42-7 at Washington State the previous season. In fact, UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel has never lost to the Cougars. While the Cougars are improved from last year, the Bruins were also expected to be improved. Keep in mind that this team returned 17 starters from last season. Their next four games are arguably all more difficult than this one. In other words, this is a game they absolutely need. I expect the Bruins to be a little "hungrier" and I look for them to do an effective job in controlling the clock and limiting the time that the Washington State offense spends on the field. The Bruins are 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During that stretch, they've also gone 8-3 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 (Personal Favorite)
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10-08-11 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
Reason: I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS. I like how this one sets up for the Mean Green. North Texas has had a tough schedule thus far. The Mean Green played three road games and were double-digit underdogs in each. Their first home game came against a good Houston team. The Mean Green lost that one. Their most recent - and only other - home game came against Indiana, a Big Ten team. Despite being underdogs, the Mean Green won that one by three. Now, they step down in class to face a Florida Atlantic team which is in a tough spot. After getting blown out in their first three games, the Owls left it all the field last time out. They still lost, however, falling 37-34 to Louisiana. They rallied to tie that one, only to give up the winning field goal at the buzzer. That figures to be a tough loss to bounce back, particularly for a weak 0-4 team that is now playing its fifth straight road game, while looking ahead to finally going home. Note that the Owls are just 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were off a conference loss. During that stretch, they were also 0-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. The Owls' offense has been terrible so far this season ranking 119th in total yards per game and 116th in points scored. The Mean Green finally beat them (at FAU) last year and this year I look for them to do so by an even wider margin. *10 (Annihilator)
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