For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL |Â CFB |Â MLB |Â NBA |Â CBB |Â NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-01-09 | Colorado +17 v. West Virginia | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with COLORADO. I've had a lot of success backing home teams on Thursday nights. However, here's a case where I feel that the home team is laying too many points and where the value lies with the visitors.
The Buffaloes got off to a disappointing start, as they dropped each of their first two games. However, they bounced back with a convincing and important 24-0 victory over Wyoming in their most recent game. That restored order/confidence. Note that both the Buffaloes losses came by less than 17 points. The Mountaineers have a 2-1 record. However, they've gone the opposite way as Colorado as they won their first two games and dropped their most recent one. Note that all three of their games were decided by 15 points or less. In fact, they only defeated Liberty, a 1-AA team, by 13 points. Now, they're being asked to beat Colorado by more than two touchdowns in order to earn a cover. Its true that the Mountaineers are playing with 'revenge,' as Colorado defeated them last season. However, I believe that this Colorado team is actually more improved from 2008 than is this West Virginia squad. Note that the Buffaloes returned nine offensive starters from last year while the Mountaineers returned just five. Overall, the Mountaineers returned the fewest number of lettermen in the Big East. With both teams off a bye, note that the Buffaloes were 3-1 ATS off a bye the last two seasons while the Mountaineers were 2-3 ATS. The Mountaineers, who are currently dealing with a few "bangs and bruises," could easily have been 3-0 but shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers vs. Auburn. Those type of losses can often be tough to forget about. They do have an admittedly potent offense but they'll be matched up against a Colorado defense which is better than it showed in its first two games and which is coming off a dominating (230 total yards, 0 points) performance. Last year's game went to Overtime and was decided by just three points. I look for this one to also prove a lot closer than many are expecting. *10 Top Oct. Thurs side |
|||||||
09-26-09 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina State -1 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NC STATE. The Wolfpack are better than they showed in their opening week loss to South Carolina and they're now playing with confidence. That'll happen after winning back to back games by a combined score of 110-14. Of course, those games came against very weak opponents. All the same, I feel this is an undervalued team at the moment. Note that Wolfpack quarterback Russell Wilson has now thrown 329 consecutive passes without an interception. Additionally, note that the Wolfpack are 11-3-1 ATS last 15 against teams with a winning record.
While I respect the Panthers, they're just 3-15 in their last 18 regular season road games vs. non-conference teams from BCS Conferences. During the same stretch, they're also 1-5 SU/ATS in six games vs. teams from the ACC. I'm backing NC STATE. 7* |
|||||||
09-26-09 | California v. Oregon +6 | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with OREGON. I won with the Ducks last week, as they handed the Utes their first loss in months. Even with that victory opening some eyes that the Ducks are actually pretty good, I feel that they're still offering us solid value once again this week. The Ducks, who are playing with 'revenge,' can score points with the best of them and last week they showed that their defense is also capable. In addition to the win over Utah, like Cal, they've also beaten a Big-10 team (Purdue) and their only loss came at Boise - and there's no shame in that.
The Bears are a very talented team but this is a tough spot for them. They're off a game in the Eastern Time Zone last week (won by 14 at Minnesota) and have their biggest game of the year (USC) on deck. The Bears just lost senior Nyan Boateng, who led the team in receptions last year. Even if we count last week's game as a cover, (was a push for most, a loss for some) the Bears are still 11-24-1 ATS last 36 times they were listed as road favorites. The Bears are also 0-5 ATS last three years when playing second of back to back road games. I expect this one to come down to the wire and won't be at all surprised if the Ducks score the upset. *7 |
|||||||
09-26-09 | TCU v. Clemson -2.5 | 14-10 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. I respect TCU but I also feel that the Tigers aren't getting the respect which they deserve. This is a team which is currently playing very well. After a blowout home win in their opener, they went on the road and spotted Georgia Tech a big lead and then stormed back to cover, nearly earning the outright win. Last week, they returned home and destroyed Boston College, turning in a truly dominant defensive effort. Coach Swinney had this to say: "Hats off to the defense. They gave up a total of 55 yards, which is the fewest ever to an ACC team. We've played three different styles of defense this season, and it has proven to be a great combination. Again, the defense played excellent the entire game."
The Frogs are just 1-6-1 ATS (1-7 SU) the last seven times that they were road underdogs of three points or less. During the same stretch, the Tigers are 4-2 ATS as home favorites of three points or less. I expect homefield to be the difference as Clemson stays perfect at home and covers the small number along the way. *7 |
|||||||
09-26-09 | Illinois +14 v. Ohio State | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 27 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. I won with Ohio State when the Buckeyes lost but covered against USC a couple of weeks ago. Off that tough loss, the Buckeyes were still able to get fired up enough to avoid a letdown against instate "rival" Toledo, bouncing back with a solid win and cover last week. However, I expect this week's opponent to provide a much tougher test and feel that the line is too high.
While the Buckeyes have had the overall advantage in this series historically, the Illini have won three of the last four meetings here at Ohio State. That includes 2007 when the Buckeyes were #1 in the country. In fact, the visitor has won eight of nine in this series. Games have been close, for the most part, too. Looking at the last eight series meetings, dating back to 1999, and we find that only one of them resulted in an Ohio State win of greater than 10 points. The Buckeyes did win by 10 last season. However, a closer look shows that the Illini actually had a 455-354 edge in total yards, so it wasn't as if they were dominated. After a poor offensive effort in an opening game loss vs. Missouri, many have been quick to write off the Illini. I won with the 'under' in the Missouri game, so wasn't too upset that the Illinois offense struggled in that game. The offense got back on track with a 45-17 victory against Illinois State last time out. While Illinois State is only a 1-AA team, it at least allowed the Illini to regain their swagger/confidence. Note that while they have yet to prove it, I actually believe this Illinois team is stronger than last year's. Including their outright win here two years ago, the Illini come in at a profitable 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +10.5 to 14.5 range. Illinois covered at Penn State in last year's Big 10 opener while Ohio State failed to cover in its Big 10 opener vs. Minnesota. I expect the visitors to rise to the challange and look for them to earn at least another cover here. *10 Main Event |
|||||||
09-25-09 | Missouri v. Nevada Reno +7 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 17 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with NEVADA. The Wolfpack have gotten off to a tough start. They got blown out by Notre Dame in their opener and followed that up by losing to Colorado State in their next game. Both those games were on the road though and I believe that this team is much better than it has shown. I also believe that we'll see an extremely motivated effort from the Wolfpack.
Keep in mind that Nevada was expected to challenge for the WAC title. Wolfpack quarterback Colin Kaepernick has gotten off to a slow start but he was one of the top offensive threats in the country last season. The Wolfpack hung within seven points of #9 Boise here last season. With all due respect to Missouri, I don't think the Tigers are as good as that Boise team, yet they're laying an even bigger (slightly) number. Speaking of last season, the Tigers absolutely destroyed the Wolfpack last year. That was at Missouri though and this year's Tigers lost more players (brought back 9 starters) than did the Wolfpack, who returned 14 starters from last year's team. Note that last season's game was Nevada's first on the road. This season, its the Tigers who are playing their first true road game. While the Tigers have enjoyed success as road favorites, its also worth noting that the Wolfpack have gone 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were underdogs of eight points or less and 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were home underdogs of eight points or less - that includes a perfect 6-0 ATS record against all teams other than Boise. With an over/under line in the very high 50s, its also worth noting that the Wolfpack have gone a profitable 10-2 ATS the last dozen times that they played a home game with a total ranging between 56.5 and 63 points. This is their chance to show the nation that they're alot better than their 0-2 record and I expect them to make the most of it. *10 Friday GOY |
|||||||
09-24-09 | Mississippi v. South Carolina +4 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with SOUTH CAROLINA. The Rebels come in with a very high ranking and there's no doubt that they're a talented and experienced team. That said, the Gamecocks are also playing well (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) and its rarely easy to win a road game on a Thursday night against a fired up division rival. As Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt acknowledged: "We know we are going into a very hostile environment. Their crowd is always hostile and loud..." I also believe that the Gamecocks are a little more talented than a lot of people are currently giving them credit for.
Many will like the Rebels here, due partly to the fact that they are playing with "revenge" from last year's game. While the Rebels would surely love some payback for that loss, I think they would be every bit as motivated even with that result. After all, this is an ESPN game with the whole nation watching, not to mention the fact that every game is important if they want to meet this season's lofty expectations. While the Rebels will be motivated, I expect the Gamecocks to be every bit as "hungry." This is their chance to really gain some respect and the fact that they beat the Rebels last year will give them the confidence to know that they can do it again. While the Rebels haven't played anyone of note and therefore haven't been challenged, the Gamecocks have gone toe-to-toe with Georgia. They lost that one but it was on the road and the loss came by only four points. They also won at NC State, holding the Wolfpack to just three points. Needless to say, the Gamecocks have a very capable defense, one which is led by linebacker Eric Norwood. Norwood, who also lines up at defensive end, has 26 career sacks. That's tied for the most in program history. Don't be surprised when he sets the record here. As Norwood had to say of getting to the Rebels QB: "We just have to go out there and make it happen. He's a good quarterback. We got pressure on him last year, and I don't see why we can't do it this year." The Rebels are just 2-14 their last 16 SEC Openers, going 0-5 their last five. I expect this one to be close, so I'll grab the points. However, I won't be at all surprised if the Gamecocks score the outright victory. 9* Roast |
|||||||
09-19-09 | Florida State +8 v. BYU | 54-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with FLORIDA STATE. The Cougars have gotten off to a great start. In Week 1, they were fortunate that Oklahoma QB Bradford went down with an injury and they knocked off the Sooners. They carried that momentum into last week's game and crushed Tulane. That's caused this week's line to be higher than a touchdown vs. a much tougher opponent. I feel that provides us with excellent value on the visiting Seminoles.
Yes, the 'Noles are just 1-1 SU and they admittedly haven't been as impressive as BYU. However, that loss came by only four points in a game in which they were leading in the fourth quarter. It also came vs. a Miami team which just completely outclassed a highly ranked G-Tech team on Thursday night football. In other words, maybe that loss wasn't quite so bad afterall. Also, while BYU was all "pumped up" from the Oklahoma win, leading to the beating of Tulane, Florida State was "deflated" from the Miami loss. That led to a less than impressive 10 point win over Jacksonsville State. Lets not forget that the Noles, who have now had plenty of time to recover from the Miami loss, haven't started 1-2 in 20 years. Last week's results help us in two ways here. For starters, we're getting a better line than we would have if the Seminoles had won in a blowout and BYU had won in a close game. Additionally, while this is a very big game for both teams, it may have been easier for the Noles to work extra hard in practice than it would have been for the Cougars, who may be starting to pat themselves on the back a bit. While the Noles are practically never road underdogs in this range, the Cougars are just 3-9 ATS (6-6 SU) the last dozen times that they were home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. It's also worth pointing out that the Seminoles are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times they played a road game with a total ranging between 52.5 and 56. FSU QB quarterback Christian Ponder said this of the game: "It's good timing. We can put those two games in the past, and we have a great opportunity this week. This could really be a changing factor for the rest of the season..." While I respect the Cougars, I expect a close game and won't be shocked if the Noles spoil their National Championship dreams. *8 |
|||||||
09-19-09 | Cincinnati v. Oregon State +1.5 | 28-18 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OREGON STATE. The well-coached Bearcats have certainly been impressive thus far. They're traveling across the country to take on a Pac-10 team, one which is also very well coached and one which is also currently undefeated. Think the Beavers will be intimidated by Cincinnati's explosive start? Don't bet on it! Keep in mind that many of these same Beavers were part of the team that upset USC here last season.
Overall, the Beavers are a profitable 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) their last 11 home lined games. In addition to getting to host a Top 25 team, the Beavers come in with some bigtime payback on their minds here too. That's because they were crushed 34-3 at Cincinnati a few years ago. Remarkably, the Beavers actually had an edge in yards and first downs in that game but were done in by seven turnovers. I don't expect the Bearcats to be so fortunate this time. Look for them to suffer their first loss, falling to 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road favorites of three points or less. *6 |
|||||||
09-19-09 | SMU v. Washington State +6 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON STATE. We know the Cougars are pretty bad. They were awful last season and they're already 0-2 this year. However, let's keep in mind that they're still a Pac-10 program, one that's hosting a team from Conference USA.
Due partly to the records of the teams (Cougars are 0-2, Mustangs are 2-0) we're actually getting a handful of points with the Pac-10 program here. However, I don't believe that the Mustangs have shown that they deserve to be laying this many points on the road, even against Washington State. Keep in mind that the Mustangs were 1-11 last year, their lone win coming against 1-AA Texas State. This season, the Mustangs needed to rally in the fourth quarter for a comeback win vs. 1-AA Stephen F Austin and then barely hang on to beat UAB by two points in last week's game. In fact, if they hadn't benefited from numerous turnovers, the Mustangs could easily be 0-2, as they've turned the ball over five times less than their opponents. Otherwise, they've been outgained in every other statistical category. Overall, the defense has allowed 454.0 yards per game while the Mustangs offense has managed just 396.0 yards per game. Note that Mustangs are 0-3 their last three against Pac-10 teams. While wins in Pac-10 play have been few and far between, the Cougars have long dominated non-conference opponents here in Pullman. This is arguably their best chance for a win on their entire schedule and I expect them to go all out in an effort to make the most of it. 6* |
|||||||
09-19-09 | Utah v. Oregon -5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 0 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with OREGON. The Utes were extremely good to me during the regular season last year and I won big in their outright bowl win vs. Alabama. However, as I pointed out when I successfully played against them a couple of weeks ago, I don't think that this Utah team is as strong as last year's team. Additionally, due to the current 16-game winning streak and that same big win over Alabama, I believe that their lines have been inflated so far this year. Yes, they're 2-0.
However, both wins have come against weak teams and they've gone 0-2 ATS. Coach Whittingham said of his team: "We've got our fair share of deficiencies...You name it, we've got to work on it ... We're miles away from having all the answers..." I expect Whittingham's team to see their win streak come to an end on Saturday afternoon. Its true that the Ducks are 0-2 ATS and 1-1 SU. However, that SU loss came on the blue turf of Boise State (not an easy place to play!) and last week's game came vs. what's proving to be a fairly potent Purdue offense which was able to trade points with them. The Ducks, who were ranked #16 entering the season, may have been experiencing a little bit of a letdown after losing the big game vs. Boise, while also probably looking ahead to this week's big clash vs. Utah. Even though it was a tough situational scheduling spot for them, I didn't play against the Ducks last week (I did win with the 'over' in that game) as I believe that they're capable of being a very strong team. The defense was solid in the opening loss to Boise (I won with the 'under' in that one) and the offense got going last week. I expect them to build off that performance with a very strong effort on both sides of the ball. Coach Kelly was quoted as saying: "We have moved on from last week. I am very impressed with the effort and hard work all of these players have put forth. The offense was better this week. We ran the ball, and got a couple of first downs. It's all about the rhythm, and once we get going the only people who can stop us are ourselves." I expect them to carry that rhythm into this game, leading to a convincing win and cover. *10 Main Event |
|||||||
09-19-09 | California v. Minnesota +14 | 35-21 | Push | 0 | 37 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. These teams have been good to me so far this season, as I've gone 3-0 ATS in their games. In Week 1, I played on California and the Golden Bears rewarded me with a 52-13 thrashing of Maryland. The same week, I successfully played against Minnesota. The Gophers managed to eke out a SU win (at Syracuse) but weren't able to cover as road favorites.
Last week, I didn't touch California's game (Bears won 59-7 as -34 point favorites vs. Eastern Wash.) but I did successfully play on the Gophers, who were opening their new stadium vs. Air Force. The Gophers fell behind early but rallied to take a 20-10 lead, eventually holding on for a 20-13 win and cover. Note that victory came against an Air Force team which is always tough to prepare for and which was coming off a blowout victory. I feel that this will be a good spot to back the Gophers again. While Minnesota has now been tested twice, California has yet to play a close game. Yes, that tells us that the Bears are a dangerous team. However, they may be starting to pat themselves on the back a bit and there's a lot to be said for being "battle tested." Last week's Ohio State/USC game provides an example. The Trojans were off a blowout win. The Buckeyes also won. However, their victory was a hard-fought one. Those results seemingly worked in Ohio State's favor. While the Buckeyes still lost the game, they came out with more energy which helped lead to them covering the spread. I used the USC/Ohio State game as an example, as it also featured a Pac-10 team traveling across the country to take on a Big-10 opponent. Like the Trojans last week, the Bears will be playing their first road game of the season. Note that Bears QB Kevin Riley didn't play particularly well on the road last season. In fact, the Bears haven't been a good road team, period. Over their last 20 road games, they've gone just 7-13 SU and 6-13-1 ATS. That includes a 1-6 ATS (2-5 SU!) mark the last seven times that they were laying points on the road. Looking back further and we find them at just 10-24-1 ATS their last 35 in the road favorite role. Speaking of the Trojans, the Bears face them in two more weeks, on October 3rd. Naturally, that's their biggest game of the season. First, they travel to Oregon, on Sept. 26, to play their Pac-10 Opener, another very important game. Off a couple of blowout victories, playing their first road game and with those two critical conference games on deck, I feel that it may be easy for the Bears to get caught looking ahead. It should also be noted that that this game kicks-of at noon EST, which is only 9:00am PST for the West Coast based Bears. The Gophers are 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were getting points, going 5-2-1 ATS as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 point range. This is a huge game for them and I expect them to give the Bears all they can handle. *9 |
|||||||
09-18-09 | Boise St v. Fresno State +7 | Top | 51-34 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with FRESNO STATE. The Broncos have sure been impressive so far. They've won both their games convincingly, earning the cover in each of them. However, tonight, they'll be playing their first road game and they'll be taking on a very solid, well-coached and revenge-minded Fresno team.
Yes, the Bulldogs lost last week. However, that was at Wisconsin and they very nearly won the game, eventually losing 34-31. While losses like that can sometimes be difficult to bounce back from, I expect the Bulldogs to be fully focused on the task at hand here. While this is perhaps only Boise's third or fourth "biggest" game of the regular season (home games vs. Oregon and Nevada would be considered bigger, and also maybe the road tilt at Tulsa) it's arguably the biggest game of the season for Fresno State. Indeed, while the Bulldogs always have the Boise State game circled, it figures to be extra meaningful for them this season. That's because the Broncos have now beaten them three straight times and because they absolutely embarrassed them last year. In that game, the Bulldogs were trounced by a score of 61-10. Note that the game was actually tied 10-10 late in the first half - so it wasn't as completely one-sided (from the beginning) as the final score makes it appear. In addition to last year's game being played on Boise's blue turf, it also came at the very end of the regular season. The Bulldogs had already had a disappointing year and were playing their second straight road game. This time, they've still got almost the entire season in front of them and are still undefeated in conference play. In other words, the Bulldogs still have a lot more "hope" than they did entering last year's game. Actually, this "rivalry" has been played late in the year (or at least later than this) every year in recent memory. With the Bulldogs playing a brutal schedule each year, they're always rather banged-up and/or exhausted by the time they face the Broncos. Last week's result notwithstanding, the Broncos enter this game much "fresher" (and hopefully hungrier) than they've been the last few seasons. Looking at the recent meetings in this series, which were played here at Fresno, and we find that the Broncos were favored by three points here in 2007 and that the Bulldogs were favored by between eight and 9.5 points (depending on when one played) for the 2005 meeting here. This year, however, the Broncos are laying significantly more points. I feel that provides us with excellent value on the home underdog. The Bulldogs, who won their lone home game by a score of 51-0, come in at 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. Should the line climb/stay above a touchdown, note that the Bulldogs are also 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. With the o/u line in the low to mid 50s, it's also worth mentioning that the Bulldogs are an impressive 8-1 SU the last nine times that they played a home game with a total ranging from 52.5 to 56. I expect the Bulldogs, who will look to control the clock with a strong running game, to be the first team to slow down the Broncos and look for them to earn at least the cover. *9 Top Sept. WAC play |
|||||||
09-12-09 | USC v. Ohio State +7 | Top | 18-15 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with OHIO STATE. Betting against the Trojans is always a bit "nerve-wracking." However, I believe that this will be the perfect place to do so. Its true that the Trojans rolled in their opener while the Buckeyes were tested in theirs. Those results will have the majority of the betting public backing USC. However, I believe those results will actually work in the Buckeyes' favor.
Like everyone else, the Trojans are already reading about how good they are. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have already had to fight through a close game. That should have helped to keep them extremely motivated all through practice this week - not that they should need any motivation for a visit from USC, a team which destroyed them last season. Despite last year's loss, the Buckeyes are still 8-3 SU/ATS their last 11 against teams from the Pac-10. With the o/u line currently down to 44.5 at most shops, it's also worth noting that Ohio State is 13-7 ATS (17-3 SU) the last 20 times that it played a home game with a total ranging from 42.5 to 45. While USC is always tough at practically every position, I like Tyrelle Pryor at QB better than Matt Barkley, at least at this stage of their careers. Yes, Barkley had a great debut. He's still a true freshman though and this will be a much tougher test. Pryor, a dual threat, has now had plenty of big games in his career. The Buckeyes bring back a relatively experienced defense and they're always tough on that side of the ball. I expect them to force the young USC QB into some mistakes. Including their 1/5 cover vs. Texas, the Buckeyes are 12-8 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points. This is the first time that they've been able to play the Trojans at the Horseshoe since 1990 and I expect them to make the most of their opportunity, earning at least the cover. *10 Main Event |
|||||||
09-12-09 | Kansas v. Texas-El Paso +13 | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with UTEP. I believe that the Week 1 results have caused this line to be a little higher than it should be, creating value with the home underdog Miners. Kansas destroyed Northern Colorado. Utep lost by six vs. Buffalo. Despite the setback, there were a few bright spots. The Miners posted 139 rushing yards on a respectable 4.8 yards per attempt. Donald Buckram had 108 of those yards, on 14 carries. The defense was also respectable, holding the Bulls to just 309 total yards. (Utep had 372) QB Trevor Vittatoe didn't have a great game in the opener, going 27-of-45 for 233 yards and 0 TDs. Keep in mind that he threw for 3,274 yards and 33 scores in 2008 though.
The Miners are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. Looking back further and we find them at 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were home underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range. I expect them to give the Jayhawks to improve on those numbers, giving Kansas a much tougher game than most are expecting. 7* |
|||||||
09-12-09 | Air Force Falcons v. Minnesota Golden Gophers -3 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with MINNESOTA. I successfully played against the Gophers last week. They won but didn't cover at Syracuse. I feel that result has set them up perfectly here. For starters, it's helped to keep the line lower than it would have been if they had blown out the Orange. Note that the line has also come down from its opener, providing even further value. Perhaps most importantly, the Gophers had to "survive a scare" in their first game. They rallied for an overtime win though and I expect that experience to help them here. Conversely, Air Force absolutely crushed Nicholls State (an FCS or 1-AA team) by a score of 72-0 nothing last week. That type of win may be good for confidence but it doesn't exactly prepare a team for the "real thing."
This will be the Gophers first game at TCF Bank Stadium, something they've been waiting a long time for. They're 2-0 SU/ATS their last two games against teams from the Mountain West and I look for them to give the fans a victory, covering the small number along the way. *Annihilator |
|||||||
09-12-09 | Syracuse v. Penn St. -28 | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with PENN STATE. I successfully played on Syracuse last week. Playing their home opener vs. a team (Minnesota) of similar talent, (or at least in the same ballpark) I thought the Orange would respond positively to the coaching and QB change. They did. In fact, they played a great game and left it all on the field, very nearly winning outright. However, the defense let them down when it mattered and they lost in Overtime.
I feel that loss will be "psychologically damaging" to the Orange. Keep in mind that Syracuse has been a terrible team in recent years. Losing a game which they should have won will have the Orange players and fans saying/thinking to themselves: "here we go again..." Now, they have to travel to an extremely difficult venue to face the #7 team in the country. In other words, I'm saying that I think they're ripe to get blown out. The Nittany Lions are certainly capable of delivering a blowout, too. Syracuse fans will recall last year's embarrassing 55-13 loss as the Nittany Lions cruised into the Carrier Dome and administered an absolute beating. The Nittany Lions would run 82 offensive plays and compile 560 yards of offense. The Nittany Lions were also dominant in their opener, as the final score of 31-7 makes it look a lot closer than it really was. That's because the Nittany Lions put it on 'cruise control' in the second half, after scoring 31 in the first half and holding Akron without a first down. While they're not likely to show that type of "mercy" against an opponent from the Big East, the fact that they did last week has helped to keep this week's line from going nuts. Note that even with last week's ATS loss, Penn State is still 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) the last five times that it was favored in the -21 to -31 range. The Lions have solid advantages on both sides of the ball and they're catching the Orange off an emotional loss. I'm expecting another "blowout." *9* Blowout GOW |
|||||||
09-10-09 | Clemson +5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with CLEMSON. Although it doesn't get much recognition on the national level, this is a pretty good rivalry. This year, it also features a pair of possible Heisman candidates in C.J. Spiller and Jonathan Dwyer. The Jackets come in with the higher ranking and many will expect them to win this one with ease. I don't see it that way and feel that the game will very likely come down to the wire.
Last year's meeting was Clemson Head Coach Dabo Swinney's debut. Clemson drove into Yellow Jacket territory, but Jacket Morgan Burnett intercepted Tiger QB Cullen Harper with less than 10 seconds to play. The Yellow Jackets hung on for a 21-17 victory. (Note that Clemson had six turnovers.) That brought the series to 6-4 over the past decade with seven of those games being decided by five points or less. In fact, 10 of the last 13 have been decided by five or less. Both teams won by a similar margin in last week's opener. However, the Tigers were playing a tougher opponent and were arguably more impressive. That gives them plenty of confidence heading into this very important game. The fact that both teams were able to get that game under their belt was probably more important to Clemson as it gave Kyle Parker a chance to "get his feet wet" before this week's big match. Coach Swinney said of Parker: "He was outstanding today. He missed one throw all night, and there were about four big drops from the receivers tonight. He was dead on all night." Clemson is 20-11 ATS as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 point range since 1992. During that stretch, Georgia Tech is 17-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, including a 1-4 ATS mark its last five in that role. The Tigers were able to have some success against the G-Tech rushing attack last season, holding the Jackets well below their season average. They're 9-3 ATS the last dozen times they were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range and I look for them to build on those stats here. *9 Roast |
|||||||
09-07-09 | Cincinnati v. Rutgers -5 | 47-15 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with RUTGERS. It may be the season opener but this is both an interesting and an important matchup. The Bearcats won the Big East last season, before losing in their bowl game. They're hungry to defend their title. Rutgers, which won its bowl game, wants what Cincinnati has. Having closed out the season with seven straight wins, the Knights also feel that they're more than capable of being something special this season.
Both teams are well-coached and both are optimistic this season. However, both have some question marks. For the Scarlet Knights, they need to break in a new quarterback - as longtime starter Mike Teel is no longer with the team. Whether its Domenic Natale, a fifth-year senior, or Jabu Lovelace (or a combination of both) the Knights' QB will have the luxury of playing behind an offensive line which returns all five starters. Additionally, the trio of tailbacks, Kordell Young (questionable), Joe Martinek and Jourdan Brooks, all return. That's noteworthy as the three scored 15 touchdowns last season and rushed for nearly 1500 combined yards. While the Knights have a new QB, in my opinion, the Bearcats "question mark" is an even bigger one. Yes, the Bearcats offense should be in good hands but they must break in an almost entirely new defense. Indeed, while they've got some talented new players, they only return one defensive starter from last season. These teams played a tight game (13-10) at Cincinnati last season. The Bearcats won but the Knights covered. That was right before Rutgers got on its roll, which saw it close out the season on a 7-1-1 ATS run. In fact, the Knights haven't lost a game since that one. The Knights know that last year's slow start, including a home loss to Fresno on Labor Day, cost them and are determined not to let it happen again. I expect them to take advantage of the inexperienced Bearcat defense, avenging last season's loss and earning the cover along the way. *7 Annihilator |
|||||||
09-06-09 | Mississippi v. Memphis +18 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with MEMPHIS. Ranked #8 in the country, there is no doubt that the Rebels are a good team. That said, I feel that Memphis has the talent to keep up with them and that this line is too high.
Last year's meeting was played at Mississippi with the Rebels earning a convincing 41-24 victory. While the Rebels are expected to be even better this season, I also expect the Tigers to be improved. Note that last season's line was only -9. This year, despite the game being played at the Liberty Bowl, we're getting a much higher number to work with, one which has climbed since its opener. While the Rebels will be tough on both sides of the ball, the Tigers are also going to be tough. They averaged better than 417 yards of offense per game last season and bring back their QB (Arkelon Hall) and his top two receivers. Coach Tommy West said of his quarterback: "I feel good about our quarterback. Arkelon has made some really good decisions through camp. That was what I expected. That's what I wanted to see out of him. I think he's in the best shape he's ever been in. While Hall will be using his arm a lot, he's also got a talented back at his disposal, as Curtis Steele returns. You may recall Steele, as he finished with 1200+ yards (7 TDs) last season and was voted "C-USA Newcomer of the Year." Although the defense wasn't a strength last season, the Tigers should be somewhat better on that side of the ball this season as they bring back numerous starters, particularly at linebacker and in the secondary. The Rebels are 7-9 ATS the last 16 times that they were listed as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. During the same stretch, the Tigers were 20-13-1 ATS as underdogs in the same range. This is a very big game for them. Not only are the Rebels a Top 10 team but they're also a bitter rival that beat them badly last season. Note that the Rebels won here in 2007 but that the game was only decided by two points, a 23-21 final. Including that result, the Tigers are 4-2 SU/ATS the last six times they were a host in the series. I expect them to give their guests all they can handle again here. *9 Main Event |
|||||||
09-05-09 | LSU v. Washington +18 | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. My first "Best Bet" of the season was on Utah State vs. Utah on Saturday. I noted that I respected the Utes but that I felt last year's results were causing them to be overvalued for their opener. I believe that last year's results are also helping to provide us with value in this evening's matchup.
Like the Aggies, the Huskies are coming off a bad (very bad) year and now have a new coach. That new coach happens to be an assistant (Steve Sarkisian) from USC, so he knows a thing or two about winning. Loaded with returning starters, including the return of quarterback Jake Locker (injured last season after being named Pac-10 Freshman of the Year in 2007) I expect them to be much improved this season. LSU, which is just 7-13-2 ATS the last 22 times it was favored, hasn't played on the West Coast in many years. I look for a highly motivated effort from the Huskies and look for them to give their guests a much tougher time than many are expecting. *8 Best Bet |
|||||||
09-05-09 | Maryland v. California -21 | Top | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with CALIFORNIA. The Golden Bears have been good to me in their season opening game each of the past three seasons. In 2006, I played against the Bears in their opener and they were blown out at Tennessee. The following season, in 2007, I played on the Bears in their opener as they avenged the 2006 loss with a double-digit victory over the same Vols. I also played on Cal in its opener last season, a narrow 38-31 win and cover vs. Michigan State. I'm backing the Bears again this year, only this time I'm expecting a much more convincing victory than we saw last season.
These teams faced each other at Maryland in Week 3 of last season. I successfully played on the Terps in that game, as they won outright as double-digit underdogs. At the time, I felt that Cal was a bit over-valued (due in part to a 66-3 victory the previous week) and that they may have a letdown vs. what I felt was an undervalued Maryland squad. I see things much differently for this year's rematch. This time, thanks in part to last year's result, the Bears should be fully focused on the task at hand. Last season, the Bears were playing their second straight road game. The West Coast based team was also having to do so at 12:00 EST. This year, they're playing their home opener. Last year, the Terps had an experienced team. This year, they've got numerous new faces and this year, they're the team which has to travel across the country. As for the Bears, they're always pretty good, having achieved seven consecutive winning seasons. However, they believe that this year offers them a chance to be even better. In fact, loaded with returning talent, there's talk that this is the year that the Bears could return to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1958. While the Terps are 3-8 ATS (4-7 SU) on the road the past couple of seasons, the Bears were 9-4 ATS (11-2 SU) at home. That includes a 7-1 SU/ATS mark when playing a home game with a total listed in the 49.5 to 56 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here, as they avenge last year's loss by starting this season with a "blowout" victory. 9* Blowout GOW |
|||||||
09-05-09 | Minnesota v. Syracuse +7 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with SYRACUSE. Expecting them to have a bad year, I successfully played against Syracuse on the first Saturday of last college football season. They lost by a score of 30-10 to Northwestern, which would prove to be a sign of things to come. Overall, the Orange were disappointing (again) last season, which caused them to get rid of head coach Greg Robinson. I expect new coach Doug Marrone, a Syracuse alum, to field a more competitive team this season.
You may have heard that former basketball player Greg Paulus will be the starting quarterback for the Orange. Playing at Duke, Paulus is used to playing in big games and he's used to winning. Note that he was the National Player of the Year as a high school quarterback, so it's not like he only knows hoops. Paulus, who will work behind an offensive line which returns three starters, has a bigtime weapon in Mike Williams. The junior receiver didn't play last season but he's back now. Note that Williams had 10 TD's & 800+ yards two years ago. While its easy to pick on the Orange, the Gophers didn't exactly light it up down the stretch last season either. In fact, they lost their final five games, going 1-4 ATS. In their final two games, they were outscored by a combined score of 97-21. They do return some talent and should be better this year. That said, they've changed their offense (new offensive coordinator will no longer be using the spread) and they also have a new defensive coordinator. In other words, it may take them a game or two before really catching on to the changes. Playing in front of the home fans, I expect the Orange to give the Gophers all they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset. *7 |
|||||||
09-04-09 | Tulsa v. Tulane +14 | Top | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with TULANE. Tulsa crushed Tulane again last year and many are probably anticipating another blowout. However, I'm expecting a much closer contest.
The Golden Hurricane defense does return several starters but they weren't all that tough on that side of the ball last season. Three of their final five opponents scored 27 or more, including Houston putting up 70 against them. While the Golden Hurricane offense will still put up a lot points this season, they may not be quite as potent as last year, as least not right off the bat. Gus Malzahn, the "mastermind" behind the Tulsa, no huddle system, is now gone and so is quarterback David Johnson. Note that Johnson threw for 4,059 yards and 46 touchdowns. Additionally,Tarrion Adams, last year's top back for the Golden Hurricane, is gone. Note that Adams ran for over 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. On the other hand, Tulane should be better that last season. The Green Wave was hit hard by injuries in 2008 and that helped lead to a down year. They're much healthier now and several key pieces return. That includes tailback Andre Anderson, who was having an outstanding season before going down with injury. Tulsa did win and cover in its last game here but hasn't been a profitable road team overall for some time. In fact, the Golden Hurricane are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 road games, including 0-4 ATS their last four. The Wave had quite a few bad losses last year but none were as bad as the beating that Tulsa gave them. I expect that loss to have them extra fired up here. Before things, "went south," the Wave started last season 3-0 ATS, nearly defeating East Carolina outright in their home opener. I expect another big effort here. *9 main event |
|||||||
09-03-09 | Utah St. +21 v. Utah | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. The Utes were very good to me last season. They came through for me several times, most notably with their outright (31-17) win over Alabama as 10-point underdogs in the Sugar Bowl - I used Utah as my "Bowl Game of the Year" in that game, so was certainly thrilled with the outcome. That said, I'm not one to build loyalties to ANY team. While the Utes will be solid again this season, I believe that last year's undefeated campaign has them over-valued entering this season.
In addition to the fact that they lost both last season's starting cornerbacks to the NFL, keep in mind that the Utes are breaking in a new quarterback. As Utah coach Kyle Whittingham noted: "Obviously at quarterback, whichever guy is in there has never taken a Division I snap. That's a situation where with the quarterback particularly you never know what you have until they are under fire in a game. We will be finding out on Thursday." On the other hand, Utah State brings back junior quarterback Diondre Borel. Whittingham said this of the Aggie QB: "Diondre Borel is a terrific athlete. He is not a real big guy, but he is quick and fast and can hurt you in a few different ways. To have an effective spread, you need that kind of guy back there." Note that Borel led the Aggies in both passing AND rushing yards last season. The Aggies have a new coach in Gary Anderson. You may recall Anderson, as he's the former assistant head coach and defensive coordinator for Whittingham. He's brought a new attitude and he's surely have his team fired up to play tough against his old boss. That's particularly true as the Utes embarrassed the Aggies last season. The Aggies are 3-0-1 ATS their last four trips here and I look for them to give the Utes a tougher test than many are expecting. *6 Best Bet |
|||||||
01-06-09 | Ball State Cardinals v. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes -3 | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with TULSA. This game sets up very much like the "Opening Day" matchup between BYU and Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl. In that game, BYU came in with the much better record (Cougars were 10-2, Wildcats were 7-5) and also was ranked in the Top 25. Yet, Arizona, which was not ranked in the Top 25, was the favorite. Naturally, the majority of the betting public was quick to back the ranked team which was getting points. However, I felt there was good reason that the unranked Wildcats were favored and used them as my "Opening Day Main Event." Arizona went on to win by 10 points.
Tonight, it's Ball State which brings the better record and the Top 25 ranking to the table. Yet, its unranked Tulsa which is currently a slight favorite. Once again, I feel that there is good reason for this and the unranked team will be the one which emerges victorious. Give the Cardinals credit for having a great season. However, the schedule wasn't exactly difficult, as Indiana was the toughest non-conference opponent. Still, the Cardinals went 12-1 and that's impressive no matter what the schedule is like. The only problem is that the lone loss came in their last game, an upset to Buffalo in the MAC Championship game. While it can go both ways, in my experience, more often that not can be very difficult for previously undefeated teams to bounce back from a late season loss, particularly if it came in their final game. Don't believe me? Just ask Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide! Making matters much worse, the Cardinals will have to try and "bounce back" against a very tough opponent and without their coach on the sideline. That's because Brady Hoke (MAC Coach of the Year) has moved on to San Diego State. While Stan Parrish will surely enjoy success here, dealing with the team's first loss while also dealing with the coaching change may be hard on the players. As Ball State Athletic Director Tom Collins noted: "Change is always difficult, and even more so for young adults..." The Cardinals score plenty of points, finishing with an impressive 36.6 points per game during the regular season. The Golden Hurricane score even more than that though - a lot more. In fact, Tulsa averaged a whopping 47.4 points and 565.1 total yards per game, stats which were second to only Oklahoma. I expect the Golden Hurricanes to be the more focused team tonight and for them to keep piling on enough points to earn a convincing victory. *Blowout GOM |
|||||||
01-05-09 | Ohio State +9 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with OHIO STATE. Last year's Fiesta Bowl featured West Virginia and Oklahoma. This year's game has different teams but there are some similarities, which I feel we can learn from. Entering last year's game, many felt that the Sooners were the best team in the country. Oklahoma fans certainly thought so anyway and the Sooners were determined to win big and make a statement that they were indeed the top team, or so they said. Additionally, having lost a few bowl games in a row and having been upset on the very same field the previous bowl season, the Sooners, who were coming off back to back double-digit wins over Missouri and Oklahoma State, figured to be extremely motivated. Throw in the fact that West Virginia was having to deal with the departure of Coach Rich Rodriguez and many felt that the Mountaineers would get blown out. What happened? The Mountaineers surprised a lot of people, as they turned out to be a lot more motivated than people thought. After that game, WVU QB Pat White was quoted as saying: "Oklahoma's a great team. I think we were just a little bit hungrier than they were."
This year's game features another powerful team from the Big 12 (Texas) who some feel should be playing in the title game. After all, the Longhorns finished 11-1 and the did beat Oklahoma (also 11-1) on a neutral field. Like they thought last year about Oklahoma, many people feel that Texas will be determined to make a statement and that they'll roll all over their opponent, in this case, Ohio State. I took the points with West Virginia last season and I feel that the underdog will have plenty of bite again this year. Like West Virginia last year, Ohio State is an extremely talented team, arguably more talented than last year's Mountaineers. Keep in mind that this is a team which played for the national title last year and then which returned nearly all of its starters from that game. In fact, they opened the year as the #2 ranked team. Speaking of the national title game, the fact that they lost two years in a row should provide the Buckeyes with more than enough motivation here. As for Texas, as Oklahoma found out last year, wanting to prove that you belonged in the BCS title game and going out there and doing it, are two entirely different matters. These teams met twice in recent years. Texas won a close one (25-22) in 2005 and Ohio State won convincingly (24-7) the following season. The Buckeyes, 4-0 their last four appearances in the Fiesta Bowl, are 8-1 since Pryor took over at quarterback and the lone loss (vs. Penn State) came by only a touchdown and the Buckeyes were leading that game in the fourth quarter before being done in by a costly turnover. We're still getting more than a touchdown to work with here and I feel that provides excellent value. I'll take the points but won't be surprised when Ohio State wins this one outright. *Main Event |
|||||||
01-02-09 | Utah +10 v. Alabama | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 42 h 4 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with UTAH. Last year, I successfully backed the favored SEC team (Georgia) against the undefeated non-BCS team, Hawaii. The Bulldogs dominated the game, showing that Hawaii's undefeated record wasn't as great as many had previously believed. A lot of people remember that game and are expecting a repeat with the big bad team from the SEC (Alabama) beating up on the lowly Mountain West school. I don't expect that to be the case this year though as I believe that Utah, which currently has the longest winning streak in the country, is a much stronger team than Hawaii was last year. Sugar Bowl executive Paul Hoolahan concurs, stating: "They've played competitively against top-name schools. To go 12-0 with the schedule they have, with the way they play, the way they get after it, I think it's a safe bet with those teams. Particularly Utah. We're comfortable they will compete at a very high level."
Utah QB Brian Johnson took it a step further, saying: "If you look at it, it's clear that we're a much better team than Hawaii was last year and I think us (and Hawaii) being two non-BCS teams, that's where the comparison starts and that's where it ends. You look at their strength of schedule last year and you look at the teams they played to get there and look at what we did - I think it's completely different. ... We deserve to be here and hopefully after (the game) there won't be any more questions about that." While their schedule admittedly wasn't as tough as Alabama's schedule, as both Johnson and Hoolahan acknowledged, the Utes have performed well against top name schools and/or teams that went to a bowl this season. They beat quality teams like BYU, TCU and Oregon State while also winning on the road at both Air Force and Michigan. Overall, they outscored opponents by an average score of 38.2 to 14.5 on the road. Opponents managed an average of a mere 227.7 yards of offense in Utah's road games. This is a big bowl game and the Utes are thrilled to be here. As Johnson's comments reveal, they're also thrilled However, the same can't necessarily be said of the Crimson Tide, as they were 15 minutes away from a spot in the BCS title game. However, they couldn't make a 20-17 fourth quarter lead hold up against Florida and therefore had to "settle" for a spot in the Sugar Bowl. Nick Saban didn't try to hide the fact that his team was disappointed, saying: "Our players are certainly disappointed..." While the Tide are saying all the right things about "bouncing back," that can often be a lot easier said than done. Note that Alabama is just 3-7 SU the last 10 times it was coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent in its previous game. The Utes have been terrific in the underdog role for years. In fact, they're a highly profitable 40-19-1 ATS the last 60 times that they were getting points, winning more than half (32) of those games outright. Look for the Utes to improve on those numbers here, delivering a huge effort and showing that, unlike Hawaii last year, they fully deserve to be here. *Bowl GOY |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.