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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-20 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State -13.5 | 25-31 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. While the schedule maker hasn't done them any favors, the Huskies aren't a good team right now. They lost 49-30 against Buffalo. That wasn't that bad. But they followed it up with a 40-10 loss vs. Central Michigan. Both those games were at home, too. Now, they take to the road to face a Ball State team which is off a momentum-building 38-31 win over Eastern Michigan. With their next two games both coming on the road, both against quality opponents, the Cardinals know that they absolutely need to take care of business in this one. After years of abuse at the hands of the Huskies, they ended the drought last season, winning at NIU. Now, they'll look to deliver a blowout to a longtime nemesis. The Cardinals have the offense to exploit the inexperienced NIU secondary. Expect them to do exactly that. |
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11-18-20 | Toledo -6.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing TOLEDO on the money-line. I see this game going one of two ways. Either Toledo wins big. Or, Toledo wins a close one. Either way, I see Toledo winning. I suggest the possibility of a "close one," as Toledo is off a 3-point game and as both of EMU's games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Note that the Eagles lost both of those SU, while winning both ATS. Going back further finds that the Eagles are 5-11 SU as underdogs but 11-5 ATS. Again, one would be much better off playing against them on the moneyline. Toledo suffered a very tough loss against Western Michigan last time out. However, the Rockets also destroyed Bowling Green by a 38-3 score. In terms of talent, I believe that Eastern Michigan is closer to Bowling Green than it is to Western Michigan. Yes, the WMU loss was a heartbreaker. However, while not as dramatic, the Eagles' loss against Ball State was also pretty "heartbreaking." (EMU was up 24-13 in the second half and gave up winning TD with six seconds left.) I believe Toledo, better on both sides of the ball, will prove more capable at bouncing back. Rockets win. |
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11-15-20 | California v. UCLA +4 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCLA. Needless to say, the circumstances are a little different for this one. Both teams were supposed to play a different opponent. Cal, which had its first game postponed too, was set to face Arizona State. UCLA was scheduled to host Utah. Both games had to be canceled due to those teams having Covid concerns. That means that neither team has had much time to prepare for the other. I like the fact, however, that UCLA has already played a game. That would already be an advantage but potentially more so, given the situation. While the Bears won last season, the Bruins have won five of the past seven meetings. Two of those seven games were decided by a field goal or less. While I expect the outright upset, in a game which could also come down to the wire, I'm happy to grab the points. |
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11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU. This is already Hawaii's third road game in the past four weeks. They got crushed (at Wyoming) last time away from the island and this figures to be an even tougher venue. I expect the travel to catch up with them. Off last week's loss, the Aztecs are going to be in an angry mood. Last week's loss notwithstanding, the Aztecs have a very stingy defense. Expect Hawaii, which managed only seven points last time on the road, to have trouble finding the end zone. The Aztecs have additional motivation in this one as Hawaii has actually beaten them in b2b seasons, including a 31-30 upset, as double-digit underdogs, last time here. Its payback time today, the Aztecs keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. |
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11-13-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Florida International +10 | 38-19 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FIU. Since a 33-31 win by the Panthers in 2016, the Owls have had their way in this series. I believe that the Panthers are ready to give them a challenge tonight though and feel that the generous line is providing us with very fair value. Keep in mind that the O/U line for this game is very low. So, there aren't many points expected, yet the Owls are being asked to lay double-digits on the road. That's asking a lot. Indeed, the Owls are averaging only 16 ppg. (FIU averages 24.) The Panthers, who are very well rested for this game, have quietly gone 7-3 ATS the past 10 times that they were getting points. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +4 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Coach P.J. Fleck has turned the Gophers around, since his arrival in 2017. However, he has yet to beat Iowa. Even last year's team, which went 11-2, lost to the Hawkeyes. Needless to say, Fleck and the Gophers are extremely motivated to finally get a win in this series. They've got the offense to do it and they're playing at home. Last year's game was at Iowa and was decided by just four points. Yes, the Hawkeyes looked really good in beating up on Michigan State. However, they also lost by four points (at Purdue) in their lone road game. Additionally, Northwestern beat them by a point. Minnesota, young but talented, is getting better each time out. The Gophers are off a big win of their own and have scored more than 40 in b2b games. I expect Fleck to have them ready to play and look for them to give their guests all that they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and earning AT LEAST the cover. |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State -13.5 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOISE. The Rams are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off their worst home loss in 24 years, the Broncos are going to be in an extremely foul mood. The last time (9/15/18 vs. OSU) that they lost a regular season game by double-digits, they responded by hammering Wyoming by a 34-14 score, as -15.5 point favorites, their next game. CSU won at home last week but lost its lone road game, 38-17 at Fresno. The last time that the Broncos hosted the Rams, they won by 28. Expect the angry Broncos to pull away for another win and cover. |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -117 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Cardinals lost a tough one, at Miami Ohio, in their opener. While they would have liked to have it, they can afford that loss. They can't afford to lose this one though. That Cardinals improved last year and narrowly missed a bowl game. They lost each of their final three games by four or less to finish at 5-7. Thats a bad taste that they're still trying to get rid of. This is the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Eagles earned a somewhat fortunate cover (SU loss) in their opener. However, they're one of the weaker teams in the conference and now they're playing their second straight on the road. Ball State believes it can take the next step this season. If thats to be the case, the Cardinals need to take care of business on Wednesday. The Cardinals can and wil score a lot of points. Ultimately, I don't expect the Eagles to be able to keep up. |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. These teams both took care of buiness in week 1. Miami won 38-31 against Ball State. Buffalo won 49-31 at NIU. While the RedHawks are a good team, I don't think they're as good as the Bulls. While they gave up a lot of points on the road in their opener, the Bulls were excellent on defense last season and they brought back a lot of players on that side of the ball. Really, the defense was actually pretty good against the Huskies the problem was that it had to defend some short fields, due to turnovers. The Bulls are very well-coached and we saw what the offense can do. The home team is 3-0 SU/ATS the past three years in this series. Miami won 34-20 last year but Buffalo won 51-42 here two seasons ago. Expect the Bulls to put up big numbers on the ground and for their superior defense to lead them to a double-digit win. |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama +18 v. Coastal Carolina | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTH ALABAMA. The Chanticleers are one of the biggest stories of the season. So far. They deserve all the credit they're getting. However, with all that hype comes inflated lines. In this case, they're in unfamiliar territory, laying more than two TDs. The only previous time that they were asked to lay double-digits this season (Campbell on 9/18) resulted in their lone ATS loss. As impressive as they've been, I don't believe that they're more than 17 points better than the Jaguars. While South Alabama is only 3-3, two of those three losses came by a TD or less. Speaking of close games, these teams met in 2018 and the game was decided by a field goal, a 31-28 win for USA. Don't be "shocked" when the Jags take this game down to the wire with a shot at the upset. |
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11-07-20 | Tennessee -1.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -113 | 51 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Razorbacks have arguably overachieved. However, they're still one of the weaker teams in the conference. I feel that the Vols have an edge in talent. I also really like the fact that they had last week off. They'd had a tough stretch of games, so the bye absolutely came at the right time. Its given them a chance to regroup and to focus on taking care of business in this winnable game. While the Vols are slight favorites, as of this writing, its a small enough line that a SU win should also equal an ATS win. Thats noteworthy as Tennessee is 52-11 SU as a road favorite over the years. This season, the only time that they were favored on the road, the Vols took care of business by winning (and covering) at South Carolina. While Pittman is in his first season with Arkansas, this is year 3 of the "Pruitt era" in Tennessee. If the Vols want to get to .500, this is a game they absolutely need to win. The Vols are 4-1 SU the last five under Pruitt, after losing their previous two games. (The loss came at Alabama.) Desperate for a victory, expect them to bounce back. |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia v. Texas -6 | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. It took the Longhorns a bit to get going this season. They have now though. Off a double-digit win against Baylor, they won outright at Oklahoma State last week. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into Saturday's game. West Virginia is 4-0 at home but 0-2 on the road this season, losing by seven at Texas Tech and by 14 at OK. State. Going back a bit further finds that the Mountaineers are 5-9 ATS over the years as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Longhorns are 13-6-1 ATS (18-2 SU!) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Longhorns won by 11 last season. I see them pulling away for another double-digit win on Saturday afternoon. |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +4 | 51-17 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BOISE. Needless to say, the Cougars have been playing great. That said, I don't believe that they've faced a defense this good yet. Asking them to lay points at this venue, where they're 0-5, is asking a lot. While the Cougars won last year, that was at BYU and they won by just three points. The Broncos won the previous three. Three of the last four have been decided by five or fewer points. As mentioned, BYU has never won in this stadium. While they haven't have a chance to face one for awhile, the Broncos are 4-0 their last four against top 10 teams. No. 7 Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl (43-42, OT), No. 4 TCU in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl (17-10), No. 10 Virginia Tech in 2010 (33-30) and No. 10 Arizona in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl (38-30). BYU's last visit here was decided in the final seconds, as the Broncos kept the driving Cougars out of the end zone. In what figures to be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-06-20 | Miami-FL v. NC State +11 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NC STATE. Both teams had last week off. That figures to help the Wolfpack more, as they were dealing with some injuries and the extra time allowed them to get healthier. Also, NC State has been better off a bye than the Hurricanes have. In fact, if including the extra time before a bowl, the Canes are 0-7 since Sept. 2017 when coming off a bye. Miami receiver Mike Harley had this to say: ''Yes, the records are there: we always lose after a bye week.'' While the Canes do have the better athletes, I don't feel that the gap between the teams is as wide as the double-digit spread suggests. Not for a game here at Raleigh. The Pack are already 2-0 here, most recently recording a double-digit win over Duke. They've won 16 of their last 20 here and are going to be fully fired up to host a big name team. Miami coach Manny Diaz had this to say about NC State: "They've always been challenging. Their entire program. They're a very strong program, they're a very tough program. You can just see when they hit people. On contact, people go backwards.'' Grab the points. |
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11-04-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -6 | 23-27 | Loss | -109 | 57 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes got off to a slow start last season, in what looked to be a rebuilding year. With a month to go, they were 3-6 and about to fall to 3-7. They avoided that seventh loss though, thanks to a big fourth quarter rally against Buffalo. I had a big play on the underdog Flashes in that one; they scored 24 in the final eight minutes to win 30-27! Momentum in their corner, that was followed by wins over Ball State and these same Eastern Michigan Eagles, which led to a 6-6 record and a date in the Frisco Bowl. Once there, they beat Utah State by double-digits. Naturally, there's pleny of excitement and optimism surrounding this year's team. Sean Lewis, now in his third year, has his best team yet. Note that the Flashes are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) as favorites under Lewis. QB Dustin Crum, last year's leader, is back and he's got his leading receiver. The Eagles arguably lost much more. Crum was 17 of 23 in last year's game, while also adding more than 50 yards with his feet. While the road team has had some recent success in the series, expect the home team to come away with the win and cover in this one. |
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10-31-20 | Texas +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 126 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys are favored because they are at home and because have the higher ranking. However, I don't believe that they're the better team. Indeed, the Cowboys haven't faced a team with the talent that Texas has. If the Longhorns want any hope of keeping open a chance at the Big 12 title, they absolutely need to win this game. The Longhorns, though loaded with talent, had to learn new systems this year. They've had a chance to do so now though and I really liked the way that they put the early struggles behind them and took care of business against Baylor. Coach Herman had this to say after the Baylor win: "... I'm really proud of our guys for accomplishing a lot of the things that we had set out to accomplish. Heading into the bye week and to go out there and execute them in a game was important for us and our growth and in our development ... and really happy and proud that we got a opportunity to win at home and thank our fans, both here in the stadium and all across the world. And, you know, stayed relatively healthy....we made a lot of strides in that bye week leading up to Baylor. And, you know, I expect to to continue on our trajectory north of improvement and development and hopefully give Oklahoma State our best shot. And if we give them our best shot and we don't beat ourselves much like we did not beat ourselves on Saturday against Baylor, then we'll have a chance to get a big time win..." While the Cowboys eked out a 3-point win last week, they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 point range. Speaking of close games, Texas won by six when these teams met last season after the Cowboys and the previous two meetings had both been decided by a field goal. Grab the points. |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +4 | 51-0 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE. While the Chanticleers have gotten off to a great start, I expect them to have their hands full on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers are an opponent which can absolutely trade points with them. While Coastal Carolina averages 38 ppg, Georgia State averages 42. With the exception of a 49-29 blowout win over ECU, all Georgia State's games have been close. I like the way that the Panthers found a way to win (39-37) against Troy last week. The Panthers are going to be absolutely fired up. This is a chance to defeat a ranked opponent. The Panthers have seen the video of Coastal Carolina, which has been going viral, celebrating after last week's win - and they do NOT intend to be another victim. Georgia State brought back a lot of starters from the team which won 31-21, at Coastal Carolina, last season. The previous season, the game here was decided by just three. Expect AT LEAST a cover from the upset-minded home underdog. |
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10-24-20 | Maryland v. Northwestern -10.5 | Top | 3-43 | Win | 100 | 81 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Maryland has a recent history of winning its season opener. That changes in a big way on Saturday. Indeed, there's a significant difference in experience between these teams. Northwestern brought most of its team back. Maryland did not. As if things weren't bad enough for the Terps, QB Josh Jackson opted out, along with a handful of others. Jackson was one of six players who chose not to play due to pandemic-related issues. Not good for a team which was already lacking depth and experience. The Wildcats are stingy defensively and their veteran defensive unit is going to be tough to score on. Last year, this unit ranked 25th in the country in total defense. On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Mike Bajakian will have the offense playing with more pace and we should see an improvement on that side of the ball. These teams last met in 2017. The Wildcats won by 16. Expect another double-digit victory for the more experienced Wilcats Saturday. |
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10-24-20 | Tulane v. Central Florida -19.5 | 34-51 | Loss | -103 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. I won with the Green Wave in their last game, a cover vs. SMU. However, this week, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Knights come off b2b losses, something they aren't used to. They're going to be in an angry mood and they'll be looking to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. That's going to result in a long day for Tulane's porous defense. Indeed, UCF throws for an average of 439 yards per game, the most passing yards in the entire country. Tulane, meanwhile, allows 307.8 passing yards per game, the 123rd (out of 131) worst mark in the country. UCF won 37-6 the last time that Tulane visited here. While this one figures to have more points, it will result in another one-sided affair. |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida +11 | 42-13 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USF. Tulsa hasn't played in a few weeks. The extra long layoff may bring some rust. The Bulls haven't been winning but they've continued to fight. They gave Temple everything that the Owls could handle last week. While the Bulls ultimately suffered a 39-37 defeat, they showed a lot. South Florida coach Jeff Scott agreed, noting the following: "I was so proud of our guys and how they played at Temple. We came in 1-3, we're on the road and a 13-point underdog and we had put everything into it all week long, and then before you even look up you're behind 10-0 with eight minutes to go in the first quarter. If you pause that and you let that play at a lot of different places, it's a 45-3 game at the end. But our guys continued to play all game long and even after our three turnovers, which really put us in a bad, bad spot, the same offense that put the ball on the ground three times drove it all the way down the field to give us a chance to tie at the end of the game ..." Scott continued with: "The easy thing to do is say 'Here we go again' and all that, but I haven't really seen that from our guys. They're a good group that made some huge strides Saturday..." While Tulsa seems to have UCF's number, the Golden Hurricane are still just 8-18 overall the past few seasons. The last meeting between these teams was decided by a single point. In fact, all three meetings since 2014 were decided by eight or fewer points, USF winning all three. Grab the generous points. |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 79 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. I won with the Red Wolves last week. However, Appalachian State is in a much different class than Georgia State. The Mountaineers were shut down due to contact tracing for awhile but they're back and good to go. Playing their first conference game, doing so on National TV and in front of some (2100 tickets allowed) fans, they're going to be absolutely fired up to return to the field. Indeed, they'll be looking to make a statement that just because they haven't been playing, they're not to be forgotten about. While they did manage the win last week, the Red Wolves defense was dismal. The Mountaineers will absolutely put up a big number. While the Red Wolves may be able to trade points for awhile, ultimately they won't be able to keep up. Note that the Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) when off a bye. Also, note that App. State won last year's game 35-9 and that was at Arkansas State. Expect the superior team to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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10-17-20 | Marshall v. Louisiana Tech +14 | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA TECH. The Herd have gotten off to a great start. While they're clearly playing well, this is a very big number and I don't believe that they're good enough to be laying this many points here. Note that the Herd, who are playing their second straight road game, are just 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they were favored. Entering the season, some might of thought this would be a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs. However, this is a well-coached team which is always competitive. Coming into this season, LA Tech has recorded six consecutive winning records and has earned a bowl trip each year in that span. This season, the Bulldogs are already 3-1 including a win at Southern Miss. The lone loss came at BYU. Nobody is talking about rebuilding any more. I say this one proves close. Grab the points. |
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10-17-20 | Virginia -2.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. There are some early similarities between the Demon Deacons and the Cavs. Both have 1-2 SU records. Both are 2-1 ATS. These teams already have a couple of common opponents. Both have played Clemson. Both have played NC State. Each team went 0-2 in those games. Virginia's win was arugably more impressive though. The Cavs hammered Duke. Wake Forest's victory, though lopsided, was against lowly Campbell. (The Deacons were -34.5 point favorites.) So, the Deacons have yet to defeat a "real" team. While the Cavs may be without QB Brennan Armstrong, backup Lindell Stone completed 30 passes and threw three TDs last week. Coach Bronco Mendenhall noted: "Lindell did not have many practice reps at all with our offense. He was really working with our defense and helping us in that regard, and just that he came in and was effective and moved the football team, I was encouraged by that." Regardless of who is behind center, he'll be working behind an experienced offensive line and I expect the Cavs to get off to a faster start, something Mendenhall has been emphasizing. Mendehall also has an experienced and capable defense. Look for his team to emerge victorious, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +7 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULANE. I like how this one sets up for the Green Wave. Note that Tulane is 8-4 ATS its last 12 home lined games. Also, off its loss against Houston, note that the Green Wave are 6-3 ATS their last nine, when off a conference loss. SMU is just 2-5 ATS the past seven times it was a road favorite. Also, off their 30-27 win against Memphis, note that the Mustangs are just 2-8 ATS their last 10, when off a conference victory. Speaking of 3-point games, three of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by four point or less. Also, Tulane has already seen two of its games, including its lone home game, decided by just a field goal. Expect another close one and grab the points. |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -6.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -124 | 56 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UL-LAFAYETTE. This game got postponed and these teams had agreed to play in Conway, SC, if the game couldn't be played here at Cajun Field, due to damage caused by Hurricane Delta. They're finally good to go here though, which I expect to benefit the now #21 ranked Ragin' Cajuns. They'll 5000+ fans and this will be the first game at this stadium in which they'll be selling alchohol. While both teams are 3-0, the Cajuns' record included a 31-14 win at Iowa State, a far more impressive feat than anything accomplished by the Chanticleers. Last year's game wasn't even close. The Cajuns won 48-7. Levi Lewis, who became the first Cajun to throw for more than 3000 yards last season, threw three TD passes and ran one in for another. Overall, he'd finish the seaon with 26 TD's against just four INTs, completing more than 64% of his passes. He's off to another great start this season, too. While Lewis isn't a big QB, expect him to have another big game, en route to a win and cover. |
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10-10-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -14.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 123 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers have won by "only" 24, 49 and 18 points. Thats led to a poor start at the betting window and some to question how good this year's team is. I expect a visit from Miami to "get them going." The Canes are their toughest test yet, which is why the Tigers aren't favored by quite as much as they were in previous games. Note that they're 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 point range. During that span, they've gone 6-1 ATS in October, 14-4 ATS against winning teams and 15-5 ATS in conference play overall. The Canes are off a bye but that hasn't too helpful in recent seasons. They're 0-5 SU/ATS the past five times that they were in that situation. During that span, Miami was 4-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. While the Canes have indeed looked good, Clemson is the first winning team which Miami has faced this season. While Miami does have some great athletes, Clemson is still better on both sides of the ball. Expect the Tigers to silence their critics while providing Miami with a rude reality check. |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Both teams will be anxious to get back on track here. The Cardinals are more talented on both sides of the ball; I expect them to be the team which does so. In addition to giving up fewer points per game, the Cardinals average 29.7 ppg on offense, while GT averages just 19.3. After back-to-back games in the underdog role, Louisville finds itself favored again. The only previous time that the Cardinals were favored, they took care of business agianst Western Kentucky, a 35-21 win on 9/12. Meanwhile, this isn't a good look for the Yellow-Jackets. They're 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, most recently losing by 28 (49-21 on 9/19) in that role earlier this season. Before slowing down at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals had racked up more than 500 yards against Miami. I expect them to have a big day against this defense and don't feel that the Jackets will be able to keep up. |
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10-03-20 | Virginia v. Clemson -28 | 23-41 | Loss | -115 | 133 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. This is obviously a mismatch. While the line may appear steep, I feel that it could easily be even higher. Keep in mind that the Tigers handed the Cavs a 62-17 loss in the ACC Championship Game last season.The Tigers had last week off. That works in their favor as they had a number of bumps and bruises and the extra time should allow a number of players time to get healthy. Also, note that Clemson is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS its last five, when coming off a bye. While the Tigers may have failed to cover vs. Wake Forest, they're still a dominant 15-4 ATS in Conference play, the past few seasons. Clemson had more than 600 yards of offense in the ACC Championship Game last season, Virginia had less than 400. Lawrence threw for more than 300 yards and four TDs. Etienne ran for 114 yards and a score. Expect another big day for the offense with the Cavs, ulimately, being unable to keep up. |
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10-03-20 | TCU v. Texas -13 | 33-31 | Loss | -108 | 114 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. After rallying to beat the Red Raiders last week, scoring 63 points in the process, the Longhorns bring both momentum and confidence into Saturday's showdown with TCU. The Longhorns were down 56-41 late in the fourth last week. Texas coach Tom Herman said: 'Our quarterback looked at me and said, `They left us too much time. We're going to tie this thing up and win in overtime,'' ''And I believed him.'' Off that comeback, Texas believes it can do anything and with Oklahoma having lost last week, the Longhorns are thinking big. Indeed, this team is loaded. This is a game that the Longhorns have had circled. The Frogs beat them by 10 (at TCU) last season and have had their way with the Longhorns in recent years. Its time for some payback. Note that Texas won by 15 the last time that it was the home team in this rivalry. I expect an even bigger margin of victory here. Texas rolls. |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU -23.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 124 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU. This figures to be a one-sided blowout. The Cougars have crushed both opponents which they have faced. They beat Navy 55-3 and they beat Troy 48-7. They should be able to do the same to an LA Tech team which is essentially in rebuilding mode on defense. Yes, the Bulldogs are 2-0. However, they've given up 30 or more points in both games. Last game, Houston Baptist scored 38 against them. Indeed, BYU will have no trouble scoring. This hasn't been a kind role for the Bulldogs over the years; they're 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU) the past 20 times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31.5 point range. I say the Cougars, 8-3 ATS their last 11 against CUSA opponents, put up a big number with the overmatched Bulldogs being unable to keep up. |
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09-26-20 | UTEP v. UL-Monroe -9 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA MONROE. Off to an 0-2 start, the Warhawks will be happy to step down in class and into the favorite role. They're also going to be highly motivated to get that first win. As tight end Josh Pederson noted: "The guys are hungry for that first win. Obviously we’re not happy about the last two weeks, but this game is an opportunity for us to get on track and I definitely think this is a must-win week." Note that Louisiana Monroe faces a UTEP team which is just 7-14-1 ATS (0-22 SU!) the past few seasons, when listed as an underdog. Indeed, the Miners are among the worst teams in the country. They do have two wins this season but those came against FCS teams. They haven't beaten an FBS opponent or won on the road since 2018. Playing in a "must win week," I say the Warhawks pull away for a double-digit win. |
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09-26-20 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -6.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. While there are still some questions about the OSU QB (Gundy noted this Monday: “We’ve got three guys available and we’ll have to make that decision based on practice reps.”) situation, there's no question about their ground game. Expect Chuba Howard (2093 yards, 21 TDs LY) to do his thing. Meanwhile, the Cowboy defense also comes in on a high. Last time out, they allowed just 278 yards on 59 plays and limited Tulsa to 0-for-12 on third down conversions. As Gundy mentioned: "The defense was fabulous. Zero-for-12 on third down and one-for-four on fourth down is really the story of the game.” Expect that defense to give the WVU offense trouble on Saturday afternoon. Remember, WVU had the worst offense in the Big-12 last year. While they failed to cover in the win over Tulsa, Gundy's Cowboy's typically thrive in September. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. After back-to-back ugly losses to start the season, the Blue Raiders are going to be hungry to show everyone that they're better than those results indicate. Yes, they've struggled but this is a team they match up well against and they're coming in expecting to win. The Roadrunners are off to an impressive 2-0 start. However, keep in mind that one of those wins came by three points in double-OT and that the other came against lowly ranked Stephen F. Austin. After failing to cover in that game against Stephen Austin, the Roadrunners are just 4-9 ATS in home games the past couple of seasons, 1-3 ATS as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full once again. |
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09-24-20 | UAB -6 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 81 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers lost QB Tyler Johnston to injury. That's not ideal. However, its been factored into the line and we're getting UAB at a bit better price as a result. Importantly, backup Bryson Lucero has played in both games and with the Blazers off last weekend, he's had plenty of time to prepare for the starting role. I believe that the Blazers, who started the season a 10-point win before losing at Miami, have a talent advantage in this one. Keep in mind that this is an extremely experienced UAB team, one which feels capable of winning the rest of its games. Indeed, UAB returned 18 starters. The Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in recent seasons when laying points and they're 4-1 ATS when coming off a bye. Look for the Blazers, who rarely lose in their home state, to improve on those stats, delivering a statement win over their "instate rival." |
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09-19-20 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss -5 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. The Bulldogs are off a good season and they've got a 'big name' coach. This is a unique 'pandemic situation' though. LA Tech didnt play its first game due to Covid issues. It wasnt just a few players either. Nearly the entire roster has been out; more than 50 players were unavailable for the Baylor game. They've been dealing with extensive testing and stress and have been unable to properly practice or prepare. Hurricane season doesn't help matters. Remember, the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year's defense, too. Meanwhile, Southern Miss already has a game under its belt and now they've had a chance to work out some of their issues. The fact that the Golden Eagles lost that one should add to their determination here. The South Alabama loss notwithstanding, the Golden Eagles are typically pretty tough at home. Expect them to show no sympathy for their guests in this one. |
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09-19-20 | South Florida v. Notre Dame -25 | 0-52 | Win | 100 | 95 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ND. The Irish took a bit to get going against Duke and it cost them the cover. This is a very powerful team though. Now with a game under its belt and stepping down in class to take on lowly South Florida, I expect the Irish to go out and deliver a blowout. This is a moment that Brian Kelly and Irish fans have waited for. Payback. Flashback to the 2011 season, the second year that Kelly was coach. The Irish had a great season in Kelly's first year, one which culminated with a blowout of Miami in the Sun Bowl. Naturally, expectations were high the next season. The first opponent? South Florida. Yes, the Bulls scored the upset in that one and that kick-started what would be a very disappointing season for a loaded Irish team. They'd go on to start 1-4. That was a far better USF team though and the Bulls have regressed since that time. That won't stop Kelly from letting his current players know what happend roughly nine years ago. While the Bulls are worse than they were back then, the Irish are arguably even better. Expect Kelly to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, avenging the 2011 loss in blowout fashion while delivering a statment on just how far he's taken this team. |
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09-19-20 | Liberty v. Western Kentucky -13 | 30-24 | Loss | -108 | 138 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY. I believe that this one sets up nicely for the home team. The Hilltoppers already have a game under their belts, as they played a tough opponent in Louisville. Now, they take a big step down in class to take on a Liberty team which has yet to play. WKU QB Tyrrell Pigrome figures to cause the Flames fits. Liberty defensive coordinator Scott Symons acknowledged as much: "I think it’s going to be a really big test for us. This will be the most athletic quarterback we have seen since we have been here, as far as making guys miss in space and those sorts of things. Big time challenge, big time athlete, appears that he’s a tough competitor, as well." Of course, a Liberty defense which returns only four starters is also going to have its hands full against the WKU rushing attack. Symons noted: "This will be the best backfield we have seen since we’ve been here, definitely at the Group of Five level." Look for the Hilltoppers, who will benefit from having already played, to put up a big number and for the Flames to be unable to keep up. |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. Last year, here at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Coastal Carolina beat Kansas by a score of 12-7. It was the first time that the Chanticleers had EVER beaten a 'Power 5' school. Needless to say, Les Miles and co. haven't forgotten. While the Jayhawks are young, they're still the more talented team here. The fact that they don't have to travel more than 1000 miles during a pandemic also works in their favor. Coastal Carolina coach Chadwell acknowledged that travel presents challenges: "They know we can lose somebody today to quarantine or whatever it may be. Until we get on that plane, there is going to be some apprehension ..." Addtionally, Coastal Carolina had to relocate due to Hurricane Dorian. (The Chanticleers stayed and training in South Carolina's Upstate region.) Les Miles knows his team needs to beat the likes of the Chanticleers. He'll have his team ready; I say its "payback time." |
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09-12-20 | Duke v. Notre Dame -19.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 197 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on ND. The Irish hammered the Blue Devils 38-7 last season. That kicked off a stretch which saw the Irish close out their season by winning each of their final five games by 21 or more points. Expectations are very high this season and I look for the Irish, now part of the ACC, to make a statement in this one. While Duke is capable defensively, it won't be capable enough to stop this Irish attack. Indeed, ND brings back eight starters including QB Ian Book, who had 34 TDs against just six INTs last season. Speaking of Book, he was outstanding against the Blue Devils last season and that was at Duke. He threw for four TDs while gaining 139 yards on the ground. In fact, in that game, he became the first ND QB to throw for three or more TDs and run for more than 100 yards. Things were already bad on the offensive side of the ball for Blue Devils but losing starting center Wohlabaugh to a knew injury was a major blow. Of the chance to play in the ACC, Brian Kelly noted: "...Our players are excited though, quite honestly, that they get a chance to play for a championship - an ACC championship.'' Expect a blowout. |
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09-10-20 | UAB +14.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. Obviously, the Canes have the bigger name and hail from the bigger conference. They get to recruit the better players. That said, the Blazers have a lot working in their favor here. They've already got a game under their belts and put up 45 points in the process. They arguably played better than the 45-35 score indicates, too. Central Arkansas got a few scores off turnovers; UAB had a 459-293 edge in total yards, including a 233-100 rushing advantage. Having worked out a few kinks will help them here. Keep in mind that UAB went 9-5 last season and won a bowl game. While the Blazers return a number of key starters, the Canes lost a lot of them. Miami has struggled as a favorite in recent seasons and will have its hands full here. Grab the generous points. |
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01-03-20 | Ohio -9.5 v. Nevada | Top | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
FRIDAY 10* CFB MAIN EVENT (71% IN 2020) **OHIO/NEVADA** While he came up short with the total in the Birmingham Bowl, Ben Burns already has a 5-2 (+$2,810) record with his top rated selections in 2020. He's putting that 71.43% RECORD on the line for this afternoon's Idaho Potato Bowl. Don't miss it! I'm playing on OHIO. Nevada has the better record and played in the tougher conference. Yet, Ohio is favored. What gives? Indeed, a lot of people are likely going to be quick to grab the points, based on the records/conferences alone. However, in my opinion, the Bobcats are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one by double-digits. Here are a few of the reasons why. The Bobcats outscored teams by 92 points this season. Nevada, on the other hand, was outscored by 129 points. The Bobcats could have easily had a better record, as they lost four games by a field goal or less. The Bobcats have a big edge on offense. In addition to their experienced coach, they've got an excellent senior QB, working behind a solid offensive line and complemented by a pair of capable backs. They'll be working against a depleted Nevada defense which has a few interim head coaches, after Casteel got fired and which is dealing with multiple suspensions. Ultimately, I believe the Bobcats will put up a big number and I don't expect Nevada to be able to keep up. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia -6 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 223 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. Yes, the Bulldogs just got hammered by LSU. However, in case you haven't heard, the Tigers are extremely strong this season. So, there's not much shame in getting blown out by them. After thumping the Bulldogs, LSU went on to smash the Sooners. Yes, the same Sooners who beat Baylor, twice. Georgia still outscores teams by a dominating 33.5 to 12.1 margin. Only Clemson (11.5) allows fewer points per game. Baylor allows 19.3 ppg. While Georgia allows 273.4 ypg, the Bears allow 358.9. While Baylor is 1-4 ATS its last five off a bye, the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS their last six off a bye. Expect their superior defense to prove the difference, the Bulldogs pulling away for a double-digit victory. |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -106 | 216 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AUBURN. I believe that this line could easily be higher. Keep in mind that Auburn beat Alabama last game. It also very nearly defeated both LSU and Georgia, losing by three and seven. While the Gophers have indeed had a great season, their schedule hasn't been nearly as tough as the one Auburn had to contend with. Not even close. Other than being more "battle-tested," the Tigers have the superior defense. Both teams score 34 ppg. However, the Tigers allow 18.6 while Minnesota allows 22.6. Again, that came against a schedule that included the likes of LSU, Alabama, Georgia and Oregon. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. During that span, the Gophers were 3-5 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. Look for Auburn to improve to 4-1 ATS the past five times it was favored on a neutral field. |
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01-01-20 | Michigan v. Alabama -7 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 216 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. While the Tide may not be where they'd like to be, this is still a New Year's Day game against Michigan. I don't believe they'll have any trouble with motivation. That said, I expect the superior team/talent to rise to the top. The Wolverines are 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS the last couple of seasons, when getting points. The Crimson Tide, who came up short against Auburn last game, are 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of times that they were off a conf. loss. After the earlier LSU loss, Alabama won its next game by a 38-7 score, while laying -19. The Wolverines, who were blown out by Ohio State last game, are only 3-8 ATS against teams outside the Big Ten, the past couple of seasons. They're also just 6-14 ATS the last 20 times that they were off a loss of 17 or more. Expect the Tide to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -115 | 486 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I successfully played against the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship. They were facing a revenge-minded Wisconsin team which had a bigtime back and which was coming in full of confidence. The Buckeyes took the Badgers' best punch but stormed back to still win by 13. To most, Clemson's 62-17 win over Virginia was probably more impressive. However, I'd also backed the Cavs in their previous game, a 39-30 win over archrival V-Tech. The Cavs. not nearly as strong as Wisconsin in the first place, were still celebrating snapping their skid against the Hokies and never really believed they would beat Clemson. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I was not more impressed with Clemson's win than I was with Ohio State's win. Really, I believe the closer win and the fact that they were tested will serve the Buckeyes better than Clemson winning in another blowout. Overall, the Buckeyes' schedule was arguably much tougher too, not just that final game. Thats going to serve them well here as they've faced plenty of quality teams while Clemson hasn't really done so. Over the years, Clemson is 30-31 ATS when playing a line with a game in the +3 to -3 range. During the same span, the Buckeyes were 30-16-2 ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. During that span, they were also 31-19 ATS when getting points. While I respect the Tigers, I believe the wrong team is favored. Ohio State gets it done. |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. This line has come down and I feel thats providing excellent value with the favorite. The Aggies have taken on the likes of Alabama, Auburn and Clemson. You may recall they very nearly beat both "Tiger" teams, losing by four to Auburn and just two against Clemson. The Cowboys aren't in the same class. Despite taking on some of the best teams in the country, the Aggies still allow an average of just 22.7 ppg. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, allows 27. While there will be a lot of talk about having their running back (Chuba Hubbard) healthy, its important to note that the Cowboys will be without their star safety (Kolby Harvell-Peel). Texas A@M already had the better defense and his absence makes the Cowboys' unit that much weaker. Meanwhile, the Cowboys other starting safety will have to sit for the first half due to targeting in the OU game. It all adds up to a win and cover for the Aggies. |
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12-24-19 | BYU -1.5 v. Hawaii | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BYU. The Warriors may have home field advantage but the Cougars are favored for good reason. They're more talented and they faced the tougher schedule. As always, the question is, will the Cougars be motivated to play in this relatively low profile bowl. The answer, in my opinion, is absolutely. BYU coach Kalani Sitake is the first Tongan coach in the FBS. He's got a staff filled with other Polynesians (Ilaisa Tuiaki, Fesi Sitake, Nu'u Tafisi, Fitisemanu, Damuni, Jansen Ah You, Manase Tonga, Vince Feula and Harvey Unga) and BYU has a rich history of recruiting Polynesian players. Its a big deal to Sitake and I expect his players to treat it accordingly. These teams met at BYU in 2018 and the Cougars won 49-23. The previous season, here at Hawaii, the Cougars won by 10. After getting upset by SD. State in their final game, look for Sitake's Cougars to bounce back and win this one, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine, when off an upset loss as a favorite. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida -15 | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. These teams have a history as they faced each other 11 times as members of CUSA, from 2002-2012. UCF won ALL 11 games. While I'm aware of Marshall's strong bowl record over the years, once again, the Knights are the superior team. The big question is, will the Knights be "up" for the game, as they had aspirations of a bigger bowl. I believe that the answer to that question is yes. It may not be high profile but this is still a stand-alone nationally televised game, close to home, where the Knights have a chance to show the world how good they really are. Not just the offense either. This is a team which can dominate defensively. The Knights allowed just seven points last time on the field. Expect them to really slow down the Herd here, pulling away for the win and cover. |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State -7 | Top | 51-41 | Loss | -109 | 84 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH State. While the Golden Flashes went on a nice run to get here, I believe that there's a class difference between these teams. The Aggies arguably underachieved this season but this is there chance to show everyone they're better than what we saw from them in the reg. season. They played in the tougher conference and their more difficult schedule will serve them well here. Despite the more difficult conference, the Aggies scored more points and compiled more yards, while allowing fewer points and fewer yards. Kent State was fortunate in the turnover department but thats not something that can be relied on consistently. With an O/U line in the mid-high 60s, this should be a high-scoring game. That suits the Aggies fine. They're 17-8 ATS their last 25, when the O/U line was set at 63 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 148 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. I won with the 'under' when the Buckeyes beat the Badgers earlier in the season. It was only 10-0 at halftime before getting a bit dicey in the second half. The Buckeyes won 38-10. That was at Columbus though and now the game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium, at Indianapolis. Yet, the Buckeyes opened as even bigger favorites for this one than they closed as for the first game. Thats not giving much respect to the Badgers and its offering us excellent value. Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor had this to say: "Very motivated. I know my team will try to lean on me to make plays. I have to make sure I'm ready this week." With Taylor bouncing back with a much better effort than he had in the first game, look for the Badgers to improve to 3-0 ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 21 or more points. |
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12-07-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Bears were up 31-10 at halftime in the first meeting and they still couldn't win. Having squandered that opportunity, they won't get another one. Prior to that 34-31 comeback thriller, the Sooners' last win against the Bears came by 33 points. I believe that there's still a talent difference. The earlier meeting and Baylor's big win againt Kansas have helped us by keeping the line in single digits. Remember, the Sooners were a -10.5 point favorite for the first meeting and that was at Baylor. Off an 18-point win at OSU to close out the season, look for the Sooners to get off to a much better start in this one, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and improving to 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) the past eight times that they were off a double-digit road win. |
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11-30-19 | North Carolina v. NC State +11.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on NC STATE. Though they didn't win, I like the effort the Wolfpack showed in battling back against G-Tech last game. (They're 7-2 SU/ATS over the years off a road loss of three or less.) Obviously, they're going to be fired up to host their instate rival. With the line having risen to double-digits, I believe we're getting outstanding value. Note that the Tar Heels are only 4-7-1 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons. I like the fact that NC State has had a couple of extra days to prepare; their last game came on a Thursday. The Wolfpack won by six at North Carolina last year and they beat the Heels by 12 here the previous year. UNC might find a way to win this year but if they do, its NOT going to be easy. Grab the points. |
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2.5 v. Minnesota | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Gophers were able to handle Northwestern last week but I expect them to have a much tougher time with Wisconsin. The Badgers are playing their best football; they're off three straight wins, each coming by progressively a bigger margin. Note that the Badgers are 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) their last 11 as road favorites. While the Gophers do deserve some credit for the Penn State win, they've avoided the likes of Ohio State and Michigan, the top two teams in the East. Now, in my opinion, they'll be facing the top team from the West. Both teams average about the same number of points. Minnesota averages 35.9 while Wisconsin averages 35.5. However, the Badgers have a big advantage on the other side of the ball; they're allowing 14.4 ppg compared to 21 ppg allowed by the Gophers. The Badgers haven't forgotten last year's upset. Now, its payback time. |
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11-30-19 | Clemson v. South Carolina +27.5 | 38-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. After yesterday, Clemson already knows it will play Virginia in the ACC Title game. With that game on deck and possibly bigger ones to follow, the Tigers could easily get looking past South Carolina. Either way, I expect them to have their hands full against what will be a determined Gamecocks team. The line has gone up from its opener, providing some additional value with the home underdog. Last year, despite the game being played at Clemson, the Tigers were laying "only" -25. (South Carolina covered in a 21-point loss) Note that the Tigers are just 2-3 ATS the past five times that they were favored on the road, in the -21.5 to -28 range. During the same stretch, the Gamecocks are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs of 14 or more points, 2-0 ATS as home underdogs in the +21.5 to +28 range. Its been years since anyone beat South Carolina by more than 24. I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-29-19 | Boise State v. Colorado State +14 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on CSU. This line has risen from its opener and I believe its providing us with excellent value on the home underdog. The Broncos were favored by 6.5 points their last visit here, winning by seven. You may remember that one, the Broncos were undefeated at the time but the Rams gave them a real scare, leading 35-17 at halftime. While the Broncos could be looking ahead to bigger things to come, the Rams will honor 13 seniors before the game, their last of the season. The weather is likely going to be ugly; as of Wednesday that they had 100 workers in their shoveling snow. That may well favor what is going to be a determined home team. Grab the points. |
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11-29-19 | Iowa v. Nebraska +6 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. While the Huskers have indeed have a tough year, I believe that they're offering excellent value Friday afternoon. Last year's game, at Iowa, was decided by just three points. Speaking of close games, the Hawkeyes have seen six of their past seven games decided by single-digits, five of those decided by seven or less. With the O/U line in the mid 40s, note that Iowa is 0-5 ATS its last five road games with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. The Huskers got some much needed confidence last time out as they hammered Maryland by a 54-7 score. They can do a lot to rid the bad taste of the season by winning here. Grab the points. |
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11-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia +3 | Top | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 66 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. I successfully backed the Hokies when these teams met last Black Friday. The Cavs were -5.5 point favorites but the Hokies won outright by a field goal. This time, its the Hokies who are favored. Once again, I'll be backing the underdog. While I do expect the Cavs to win outright, having an extra field goal to work with, in a game which could well be decided by a field goal or less, is a comforting feeling. Off three straight wins, the Cavs come in full of confidence. Last time out, they hammered Liberty 55-27, a game which saw them rush for a season high 227 yards. It was the most points they scored in a game since 2004. While the Hokies are off b2b blowout wins, both in shutout fashion, its worth noting that they're only 1-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b wins of 21 or more points. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 5-0-1 ATS after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Expect at least another cover Friday afternoon. |
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11-23-19 | Boise State v. Utah State +9 | Top | 56-21 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. While I respect the Broncos, I expect them to have their hands full here. Last year's game was decided by single-digits and that was at Boise. Now, the Broncos are on the road where they're 0-2 ATS their last two. The Aggies, who average better than 500 yards of offense per game here at home, are off back-to-back wins. The fact that they were both close ones should serve them well here. They're coming in confident they can score the upset. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were home underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover tonight and don't be surprised by the outright win. |
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11-23-19 | Minnesota v. Northwestern +14 | 38-22 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Off their first loss of the season, a close one at Iowa, I believe its going to be tough for the Gophers to bounce back here. Their dreams of an undefeated season were starting to seem like they could actually happen and having those dreams taken away is deflating. Note that the Gophers are 0-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a loss of seven or less in Big Ten play. Its also worth noting that the Gophers are 0-4 SU/ATS the past four times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 42 or less. The Wildcats regained some confidence and positive momentum by beating up on UMass last time out. Expect them to carry that momentum into this afternoon's game en route to AT LEAST a cover. |
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11-21-19 | NC State +2 v. Georgia Tech | 26-28 | Push | 0 | 77 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NC STATE. Needless to say, these teams have both struggled. I believe that the Wolfpack bring a little more to the table though. Not only does NC State average more points per game (22.9 compared to 16.5) but it also allows less. The Pack allow 29.2 ppg while the Jackets allow 31.1. Homefield has not been an advantage for the Jackets as they're 0-4 ATS in lined games here. That said, I'm backing what I believe to be the better team. |
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11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -4 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
Im playing on NIU. While neither team is exactly stout defensively, the Huskies have the edge in that department. They allow 27.9 ppg (12.3 at home!) and 386.2 (217.3 at home!) yards. Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, allows 31.3 ppg and 435.2 ypg. The Eagles got a big win last time out. However, that was at Akron. Now, they're playing their second straight on the road, while taking a considerable step up in class. While we have to go back some time, note that the Eagles are 3-9 ATS the past dozen times they were off a double-digit conference win and 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) when off a conference win of 21 or more. The Huskies have been to seven of the last nine MAC title games. They still have a shot to get back but would need to win out and get some help. Either way, in order for them to be bowl eligible, they need to win both this game and the next. They found a way to beat Toledo, eking out a 3-point win. They're 11-3 the past 14 times that they were off a win of three or less, 3-1 (SU and ATS) the past four. Speaking of close wins, the Huskies have won the last two between these teams by scores of 26-23 and 30-27. Back home and desperate for a victory, expect them to find a way once again. |
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11-16-19 | Wyoming v. Utah State -5.5 | 21-26 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing UTAH STATE on the money-line. I absolutely see Utah State winning this game That said, this was a baseball, soccer or hockey game, I'd have no trouble laying this type of price, based on my win expectancy. The Aggies regained their confidence and momentum with a close win at Fresno State last time out. Wyoming, on the other hand, is off a deflating loss against Boise State. Give the Cowboys credit for leaving it all out on the field. They led going into the fourth quarter and lost 20-17 in OT. That type of loss stings though. They were +16.5 point underdogs and to come that close, only to come up short, will take its toll here. Playing without starting QB Chambers doesn't help matters. Utah State is 11-1 SU its last 12 as a home favorite. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon. |
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11-16-19 | TCU v. Texas Tech +3.5 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. Despite recent struggles, both teams are still in the hunt for a bowl. I really like how this one sets up for the Red Raiders and expect them to win this one outright. Texas Tech snapped a 3-game slide with a blowout win at WVU last time out. That gives the Red Raiders confidence and positive momentum. The Horned Frogs, on the other hand, are off back-to-back demoralizing losses and have now dropped four of their last five. Last week's loss figures to be particularly tough to bounce back from, as it came it triple-OT. Last year's game was close, the Raiders won 17-14 at TCU. Including that result, the Frogs are just 9-16 ATS their last 25 in Big 12 play. I expect last week's loss to take a toll. Grab the points but expect an "upset." |
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11-14-19 | Buffalo v. Kent State +6.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Bulls hammered the Golden Flashes, at Buffalo, last season. Playing at home, I expect a much better effort from the Golden Flashes this year. While they've dropped three in a row, the Golden Flashes continue to play hard; they've covered three of four and four of six. Admittedly, the Bulls have looked impressive in beating up some bad teams lately. While they did have last week off but this still marks their second straight on the road, the first time they've played in that situation. Also, note that the Bulls are just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a win of 28 or more. Conversely, the Golden Flashes are 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b conf. losses, 3-1 ATS when off three straight conf. losses. While I like the Flashes' chances of an outright win, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron +17 | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AKRON. While the winless Zips are indeed large underdogs, this is their best chance at a victory. That said, I believe that they'll be taking it very seriously and ready to play with an extra level of desperation. The Eagles are just 1-4 SU/ATS in conference play themselves. They lost by 29 to Buffalo last time out. The same Buffalo team beat Akron by "only" 21. Note that all four of the Eagles' victories have come by seven points or less. Not surprisingly, they're 1-3 ATS when laying points. Going back further finds them at just 3-7 ATS the past 10 times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. Grab the points. |
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11-09-19 | Appalachian State v. South Carolina -4 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -108 | 126 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I believe that the Gamecocks are catching the Mountaineers at exactly the right time. Prior to last week, Appalachian State had a perfect record, a national ranking and huge dreams. All that changed with an upset loss against Georgia Southern last week. The common line of thinking is that previously undefeated teams tend to immediately bounce back after their first loss. However, I've often found that the opposite is true. Of course, winning this game was never going to be easy for the Mountaineers, regardless of what happened against Georgia Southern. The Gamecocks got their confidence back with a 24-7 win last time out and now they're getting some injured players back. With Texas A&M and Clemson on deck, this is absolutely a must win. Expect them to rise to the occasion, moving to 4-0 ATS as home favorites. |
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11-09-19 | UMass +35.5 v. Army | 7-63 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UMASS. Admittedly, the Minutemen are not a strong team. That said, I don't feel that Army should be laying this many points, in this situation. The Knights have lost five straight. Their last loss was a tough 3-point loss against rival Air Force. On the road, the Knights were 17 point underdogs but only lost by three. That type of loss, the Knights' fifth straight setback by single digits, is difficult to bounce back from. Army only has two wins. One came by 18 against UTSA and the other came by 32 vs. Morgan State, a game they were favored by -44.5 points for. They're now 0-4 ATS at home, 4-10-1 ATS their last 15 lined games here. Grab all the points you can get and look for this one to prove closer than most will be expecting. |
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11-05-19 | Ball State v. Western Michigan -6.5 | 31-35 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing WESTERN MICHIGAN. I see this game going one of two ways. The Broncos winning a close one, avenging a tough 42-41 OT loss at Ball state from last year. OR, the Broncos winning in a blowout, as they did (55-3) here in 2017. Either way, I expect the Broncos to finish on top. Too often, in my opinion, bettors stay away from the money-line in football/basketball. For the most part, I do too. However, in this case, I feel the line should have been higher. Given my calculated likelihood of the Broncos winning SU, the line should have been greater than -300. While they've had some trouble on the road, the Broncos are a perfect 5-0 at home. Averaging nearly 500 yards of offense, they've outscored teams by a 44.6 to 12.8 margin here. Its payback time. |
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11-02-19 | Ole Miss +18.5 v. Auburn | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. Auburn is obviously the more talented team. Off last week's loss, many will expect the Tigers to bounce back with a blowout win. However, while I respect the Tigers, I believe this will prove to be a far tougher game than is being suggested by the line. Last week's loss at LSU was huge. Note that Auburn is 4-10-1 ATS its last 15, off a loss of three or fewer points. Up next, after a bye, is Georgia, another huge game. With this game sandwiched in between those two huge game and with the Tigers off three straight SEC road games, its going to be difficult for the Tigers to "get up." Four of the Rebels' five losses have come by 11 points or less. They're 3-1 ATS off a loss. While the Tigers are still thinking about what might have been - and whats to come ahead, the Rebels are off a bye and are going to be extremely focused on trying to get themselves a signature win. Look for the Rebels to come ready to play and for them to give their hosts all they can handle the entire way. |
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11-02-19 | Utah v. Washington +3.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While I respect the Utes, I believe they're going to run into a problem on Saturday afternoon. The last three games in this series have had scores of 10-3, 21-7 and 33-30, all in favor of the Huskies. Washington, 7-1 SU in November the past couple of seasons, is coming off a bye. They've had a full extra week off than the Utes. The Huskies could easily have a better record as they lost by one vs. Cal and by four vs. Oregon. The Utes did win big in their last game on the road. That was at Oregon State though. Prior to that, in their previous road game, they lost at USC. While I'll happily grab the points, I say the Huskies find a way of winning a close one here. |
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11-02-19 | Boston College v. Syracuse -2.5 | 58-27 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SYRACUSE. The road team has scored upsets in this series, each of the past two seasons. Two years ago, here at Syracuse, the Eagles won 42-14 as 4-point underdogs. Last season, at Boston College, the Orange returned the favor with a 42-21 win of their own, while getting +3.5 points. This year, however, I expect the home fans to leave happy. The Eagles are without starting QB Anthony Brown and have now dropped three of four. Still, Syracuse figures to be even more desperate, off three straight losses and badly needing a win to help towards bowl eligibility. A closer look at the Syracuse results reveals that the Orange are 0-5 ATS as underdogs but 2-0 ATS as favorites. (One game had no line, they won 41-3.) Expect a highly motivated effort to lead to another win and cover here. |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut +26.5 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCONN. Admittedly, the Huskies aren't the best team around. However, playing at home on National TV, they're good enough to hang within four touchdowns of Navy. The Midshipmen are just 2-4 ATS as road favorites the past couple of seasons. The Huskies played Houston tough here in their last home game, losing by seven as a 21.5 point underdog. Then, they gained some confidence by beating up on the Minutemen. Look for them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game, covering the big number and improving to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were home underdogs of greater than 14 points. |
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10-31-19 | West Virginia +19 v. Baylor | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WVU. While I respect the Bears, I don't believe that they should be favored by this many points. The last meeting here was decided by just two points; two of the past three have been decided by a field goal or less. The Mountaineers won huge (58-14) last year. While the Mountaineers come in on a losing streak, they've had some extra time to prepare and regroup. Baylor has seen five straight games decided by 20 or less. The Bears have also gone 0-3 ATS the past few times that they were off a double-digit road win, 2-7 ATS their last nine off a upset (SU win as an underdog) road win. Look for this one to prove closer than many will be expecting, the Mountaineers bouncing back and giving their hosts all they can handle. |
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10-26-19 | Utah State +3.5 v. Air Force | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Big game for both teams. In my opinion, its even bigger for the Aggies. I absolutely expect them to be ready. Indeed, unlike other teams and coaches, Coach Anderson prepares for this game all season long. He was quoted as saying: "Camp, spring ball, bye weeks, the day after Christmas. Whenever we find an opportunity to squeeze in a few moments of Air Force, we'll absolutely do it. You have to in my opinion." That gives Utah State over other Air Force opponents, as the Aggies are more prepared for the Falcons' unique attack. I like the fact that Air Force is off a late game at Hawaii last week. Thats a long way to go and something many of these kids aren't familiar with. The Aggies are playing with a lot of confidence. They've only lost twice this season. The first was by three points, at Wake Forest. The second was at LSU. No shame in that. They already responded to the LSU loss by crushing Nevada (36-10) last week. The Aggies have won at San Diego State. So, they know they can win on the road. They beat the Falcons by 10 last year after the previous season's game was decided by a field goal. With Air Force just 6-16 ATS over the years, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range, in a game where I expect the underdog to win outright, I'm happy to grab the points. |
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10-26-19 | Duke +4 v. North Carolina | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 139 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on DUKE. I successfully played against the Blue Devils last week. So, I wasn't surprised to see them lose, at Virginia. However, I like how they match up - and how this game sets up - much better this week. While the Blue Devils got hammered at UVA, the Tar Heels suffered a far tougher loss. They fell 43-41 to the Hokies, at Blacksburg. In case you missed it, that was a wild 6-OT affair, the longest game in ACC history. To end up on the wrong side of it will be very tough to bounce back from. (UNC is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS its last seven off a conference road loss.) Note that Duke also played at Lane Stadium; the Blue Devils crushed the Hokies 45-10. So, they know how to win on the road. Also, note that Duke is already 2-0 off a loss this season, winning 45-13 and 41-23. The Blue Devils are 8-2 ATS their last 10 as road underdogs and they're a perfect 3-0 ATs the past three times that they allowed 42 or more points in their previous game. The Blue Devils have had their way in this series recently. Catching the Heels at right time, expect that to continue Saturday afternoon. |
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10-26-19 | San Jose State v. Army -10 | 34-29 | Loss | -114 | 120 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARMY. The Black Knights could badly use a big win. I believe that a visit from the Spartans will prove to be just what the doctor ordered. These teams met last season, at SJ. State. The Knights, favored by 17.5 points, won by a lopsided 52-3 score. Army limited the Spartans to 135 yards through the air while holding a dominating 341-36 edge on the ground. Considering that Tulsa put up 256 rushing yards against SJ State, Air Force put up 382 while New Mexico and SD. State ran for 238 and 262, respectively, Army should have another field day on the ground. Including last season's destruction of the Spartans, the Knights are a perfect 5-0 SU their last five against MWC teams. During that span, they're 2-0 ATS as home favorites in the -7.5 to -14 range. When the Knights have won, their games haven't been close. Their last two wins came by 18 and 31 points. Expect another blowout. |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. Last year, when these teams met at Dallas, the Cougars were ranked #18 in the country. Favored by two touchdowns, they lost outright. Now, we've got a role reversal. This time, its the Mustangs who enter the game with the national ranking while listed as the road favorite. Like last year, I believe that the home underdog has a real shot at the outright win. While every game is now crucial for the Mustangs, while playing on a short week, it might be easy to look past Houston and ahead to Memphis. Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Needless to say, the Cougars haven't forgotten last year. While this season has been a disappointment, a win tonight will do a great deal to salvage it. They're going to go all out to get it. I played on the Cougars the last time these teams met here and they rewarded me with a 35-22 win and cover. With the Mustangs just 1-6 ATS the past seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, I'm grabbing the points. |
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10-19-19 | Rice v. UTSA +4.5 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UTSA. While the Roadrunners couldn't ultimately keep up with UAB, I believe that they'll absolutely be capable of doing so against Rice. The Owls also lost against UAB in their last game and have since had a bye. Now 0-6 on the season, I don't feel that they have any business being favored. UTSA won 20-3 at Rice, last season and 20-7, at UTSA, the previous season. The Roadrunners are 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were off a double-digit conf. loss. I expect them to win outright but will happily grab the points. |
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10-19-19 | Arizona State v. Utah -13 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. The Utes are the superior team. They're playing at home. They're on a roll. Importantly, they've also got payback on their minds. Not only did the Sun Devils beat Utah 38-20 at ASU last season but they also beat the Utes by a 30-10 score, right here, the previous season. Utah, which was favored by -10 points for that game, hasn't forgotten. The Utes have only lost one game this season. That was at USC. Their other five games have all resulted in victories and ALL have come by more than 17 points. While the Sun Devils are off b2b upset wins, they're 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b SU victories when listed as underdogs. The Utes are 16-9 ATS their last 25 as favorites. Determined to avenge the recent losses, exepct them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to another convincing win. |
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10-19-19 | Duke v. Virginia -4 | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 126 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavs have had their way with Duke in recent seasons. I expect that to continue Saturday afternoon. Note the Virginia, in addition to playing at home, plays with an extra day's worth of rest. Even with a (SU) victory last time out, the Blue Devils are just 2-7 SU in October the past 2+ seasons. While the Cavs are off a couple of difficult road games, they've been perfect at home. These teams have had one common opponent in Pittsburgh. The Cavs hammered the Panthers, 30-13, at Pittsburgh. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, lost outright, despite playing at home. Knowing they're back on the road for a couple more after this one, look for the Cavs to dig deep, bouncing back and coming away with the important win and cover. |
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10-19-19 | Buffalo v. Akron +17.5 | 21-0 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AKRON. Winless on the season, the Zips see this is a winnable game. They're going to fight with everything they've got to get that first "W." Buffalo is already 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, 0-2 ATS as a road favorite. While the Bulls are off a bye, they're just 3-17 SU (6-13-1 ATS) the past 20 times that was the case. Prior to the bye, the Bulls were off a tough 1-point loss. Their lone win of greater than 16 points was back in August, a home game against Robert Morris. (The Bulls were favored by 41 and won by 28.) Buffalo's last visit here resulted in a 1-point game. Look for Akron to provide a much tougher test than most will be expecting. |
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10-19-19 | Wisconsin v. Illinois +29.5 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 122 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ILLINOIS. Naturally, I respect the Badgers. They're absolutely playing at a high level. However, that said, I feel that its going to be tough for them to win this one by more than four touchdowns. The Badgers have yet to play a conference road game. Their only road game at all came at South Florida. Remember, they're off a huge win over Michigan State and they've got their biggest game of the season (at Ohio State) next weekend. Given that setup, it should be easy to look past lowly Illinois. That'll prove costly though as the Illini are quietly playing (relatively) well. While they're only 1-3 here, two of the losses came by four points or less. Nobody has beaten them by more than 17 here. The Badgers were laying -29.5 points last time they played here but only won by 14. The Illini battled the whole way last week. Look for them to do the same, doing enough to hang within the generously high number. |
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10-18-19 | UNLV +16.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 27-56 | Loss | -112 | 55 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. The Bulldogs got hammered last time out, a 42-24 loss at Air Force. They're 1-2 ATS off a conference loss the past couple of seasons and they haven't won a game by more than 14 points this year. The Rebels bring some positive momentum into this game and they'll be confident. Last time out, playing on the road against an SEC team and listed as 16-point underdogs, they won 34-10. Granted, it was Vanderbilt. Still, that was an impressive win. The Rebels are quietly 10-4 ATS their last 14 as road underdogs. The Rebels won outright, as 3-TD underdogs, the last time that they played here. Grab the points. |
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10-12-19 | UAB v. UTSA +12.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTSA. While I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, I feel that they're laying too many points this week. Last week's game was at home. This week, the Blazers are on the road. Off last week's big win and facing a team which they hammered last season, I believe that the Blazers will be ripe for a letdown this week. That'll prove costly though. UTSA is off its best game, arguably, in recent memory, a 26-16 win at UTEP. While the Blazers will be without their starting running back, the Roadrunners ran for more than 300 yards last week. The offensive line dominated and true freshman Sincere McCormick put up a program record 189 yards. The Roadrunners deep and experienced defensive line is also off an excellent game. The Roadrunners, who brought back considerably more starters from last year than did the Blazers, haven't forgotten last year's 52-3 shellacking at UAB. They played the Blazers tough here the previous season though, a 24-19 game. Note that UAB is just 10-19-1 ATS the past 30 times it was listed as a road favorite. Hungry for a "signature win," expect the Roadrunners to give their guests all they can handle once again. |
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10-12-19 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee +7 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 89 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. To say that it has been a disappointing start for the Volunteers would be an understatement. Indeed, 1-4 was NOT where Tennessee and its fans wanted, or expected, to be right now. This is a team which they match up well against though. They're catching the Bulldogs playing b2b road games (separated by a bye) for the first time this season and off a 56-23 thrashing at Auburn. That was a reality check as it was the first really good team that the Bulldogs had played. I believe they're going to have a tough time bouncing back here. Yes, its been a tough run for the Vols - last year was bad, too. But this is a team which has a 2nd year coach with a ton of returning starters. They weren't going to beat the likes of Florida or Georgia but they can absolutely compete here. Coach Pruitt had this to say of the Vols: "...I feel like we've improved every single week...." Coach Moorhead was already facing some criticism after the Auburn loss but he'll be really hearing it after this one. I'll gladly grab the points but I say Tennessee finally plays its best game and scores the outright upset. |
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10-05-19 | Washington v. Stanford +15 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 128 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on STANFORD. While the Huskies did indeed look impressive against USC, this is a lot of points. I believe that it'll prove to be too many. Note that last season's game at Washington was decided by just four points. The Cardinal won by eight the last time the teams met here. While we have to go back a bit, note that the Huskies are just 1-3 ATS the past four times that they'd covered the spread three straight times, while favored. During that span, they're 1-4 ATS when leading their last three games by double-digits at halftime. The Cardinal gained some confidence and momentum with last week's close win at Oregon State. The Cardinal are 7-4-1 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a road win by a field goal or less. Expect them to play their best game, giving the Huskies all they can handle the entire way. |
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10-05-19 | Rice v. UAB -9.5 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 126 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. The Owls, now 0-5, are off a very tough loss last week. Fighting hard for its first win, Rice took LA Tech to OT last week. The Owls had a 14-7 lead at half. They were up 17-14 with less than two minutes remaining. They even held the lead (20-17) in OT. However, it was LA Tech which ultimately prevailed. While the Owls have battled, those are the type of losses that can be tough to recoved from, especially for a winless team starting to lose hope. I believe they're going to be susceptible to get blown out here. UAB is 3-0 ATS is last three off a conference loss and 7-1 ATS its last eight October games. The Blazers are also 11-3 ATS (14-0 SU!) their last 14 at home, as they have one of the longest home winning streaks around. Though they lost at WKU last week, the Blazers beat South Alabama by a score of 35-3 their last time on this field. The Blazers won 42-0 at Rice last season and 52-21 here the previous season. They're fully capable of bouncing back and blowing out a demoralized Owls team, once again. Expect them to do just that, keeping the streak in tact with another double-digit win. |
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10-05-19 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +9.5 | 38-22 | Loss | -107 | 122 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. The Yellow Jackets have had their way in this series the past couple of seasons. Venue and "situation" both in their favor, I expect that to be the case again Saturday afternoon. While both teams are off losses, in my opinion, this is going to be a very tough spot for North Carolina. The Heels played a great game against Clemson, leaving it all on the field. In case you missed it, they came up short on a 2-point try which would have given them a 1-point lead very late in the fourth quarter. Instead, it was a very demoralizing 1-point loss. Those are the type of losses that can be tough to recover from and I absolutely expect that to be the case here. |
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10-05-19 | Western Michigan +2.5 v. Toledo | 24-31 | Loss | -107 | 121 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WMU. I expect the Broncos to win this one outright, so any extra points are happily grabbed. The Broncos' two losses both came on the road against strong opponents. When facing beatable opponents, they've absolutely taken care of business. This is an experienced WMU team, one which brought back 17 starters from last season. Toledo, by comparison, returned 11 starters from last season. Those same 17 returning Bronco starters haven't forgotten what the Rockets did to them last season, at Western Michigan. The Broncos were favored by -4.5 points for that one but Toledo won by a score of 51-24. With the Rockets just 3-9 ATS their last 12 off a home win, expect the revenge-minded Broncos to settle the score. |
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10-05-19 | TCU v. Iowa State -3 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 137 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on IOWA STATE. The Cyclones rallied last week but ultimately fell short. Off that loss and knowing that their next two are on the road, this is a game which they absolutely need. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. The Cyclones have had recent success in this series. Two years ago, in the last game here, they won 14-7. Last season, at TCU, they lost by three, covering as 11.5 point underdogs. This season's team returned a significant number of starters and the fact that they played the Frogs so tough at TCU will provide confidence that they can take care of business here at home. Remember, this TCU team lost outright against SMU. While worthy of respect, the Frogs are definitely beatable. I believe the early start time favors the home team. Cyclones win, covering the small number along the way. |
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09-28-19 | Washington State v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 123 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. While both teams lost last week, the Cougars' loss is going to be more difficult to bounce back from. In case you missed it WSU blew a 49-17 lead and went on to lose 67-63, the highest scoring game in Pac-12 history. Coach Leach commented: "Our guys got frantic and panicked. We collapsed in every phase of the game." Off that type of "collapse," I believe its going to difficult to play at this tough venue. The Utes have had an extra day of preparation (Utah played 9/20 while WSU played 9/21.) The Utes have payback on their minds as they lost at WSU last season and as the Cougars beat them here two years ago. The Utes are 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) their last 11, as home favorites, 2-0 ATS as home favorites of seven on less. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five off a road loss, 3-0 ATS off a road loss when they were favored. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday. |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +17.5 | Top | 48-7 | Loss | -115 | 129 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. Last week's results have helped to provide us with excellent value with the home underdog. The Buckeyes absolutely destroyed Miami Ohio while the Huskers barely eked out a win against Illinois. However, Illinois is actually a pretty decent team, at the least, the Illini are much stronger than Miami Ohio. Plus, Nebraska was on the road, while Ohio State was at home. I like the fact that the Huskers rallied to pull it off last week and that they had to fight to do it. While Ohio State has yet to be tested, the Huskers have now been involved in two close ones (both on the road) and that close game experience figures to serve them well. (Both home games have resulted in double-digit wins.) Speaking of close games, you may recall that Ohio State was a 17-point favorite for last year's game. However, it was the Huskers who were up 21-16 at halftime. The Buckeyes managed to escape with a 36-31 win but the cover was never in doubt for Nebraska. Its the first evening game for Ohio State all season; Lincoln can be a tough place to play and the crowd is going to be extremely fired up. Note that its the first ESPN "Gameday" at Lincoln in more than a decade. The Buckeyes are 0-2 ATS the past couple of times that they were off three consecutive covers. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way. |
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09-28-19 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -1.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. Last week's results have worked in our favor, as the line could easily be higher. The Redhawks got absolutely hammered while the Bulls won outright. However, lets keep in mind that Buffalo was hosting Temple while the Redhawks were playing at Ohio State. Three of their four games have been on the road and those came against Iowa, Cincy and Ohio State. So, a 1-3 record is certainly no surprise. The Redhawks won 48-17 in their lone home game. The Bulls, meanwhile, lost both road games. A 45-13 loss at Penn State was excusable but their 35-17 loss at Liberty showed that the inexperienced Bulls are likely to struggle on the road all season. Home field has been the difference in this series the past couple of seasons. Expect that to be the case again here. |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +3.5 v. California | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on ASU. Both these teams have been involved in some close ones lately. Cal is off a big emotional/controversial win over an SEC opponent in the Eastern time zone. The Bears hung on to win by eight. However, the game down to the final play. Note that Cal is just 1-3 ATS its last four off a road upset. The Bears previous two games were decided by six (against North Texas) and by just one, at Washington. Even their game against Cal Davis was relatively close, 14-point win. Likewise, ASU is off b2b 3-point games. I see another potentially close one, which makes the points very attractive. The Sun Devils have won at Michigan State. That was in front of more than 70,000 fans and a national TV audience. They're not afraid of the moment. Look for ASU to give its hosts all they can handle once again, improving to 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road underdog. |
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09-21-19 | UCLA +19 v. Washington State | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins' tough start has led to an extremely generous line, one which I feel is providing us with excellent value. When these teams last met, the Cougars were double-digit favorites but won by only six. I look for this one to also prove close. The Bruins first two games were both decided by 10 points or less. Sure, Oklahoma beat them by more than that. However, I don't put WSU in the class of the Sooners. Keep in mind this is an experienced UCLA team, one chomping at the bit to turn its season around. The Cougars, who won by only seven last time out, have a huge game against Utah on deck. Look for the Bruins to provide a much tougher game than many will be expecting, moving to 3-0 ATS their last three, after trailing by 17 or more points at the end of the first half of their previous game. |
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09-21-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -6.5 | Top | 30-36 | Loss | -129 | 142 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys have been living a lie. Their games have come against Oregon State, McNeese State and Tulsa. To their credit, they've taken care of business. However, the fact remains that they were double-digit favorites for each of those games, despite two of them coming on the road. Now, however, they're stepping up in class considerably while playing their third road game in the past four weeks. I expect reality to set in. While the Longhorns came up short vs. LSU, they rebounded by crushing Rice last game. They also hammered LA Tech in the first game. The Longhorns have a score to settle, as OSU has had their number of late. Back-to-back 3-point losses in the series have been particularly tough to swallow. This is a highly motivated Texas team, one which is 5-0 ATS its last five, off b2b non-conf. games. Expect them to get some payback, covering the relatively small number and moving to 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were a home faovrite of seven or less. |
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09-21-19 | California v. Ole Miss -1 | 28-20 | Loss | -125 | 117 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Bears may have the better ranking but I believe that the Rebels are (slight) favorites for good reason. The Bears did manage an upset of Washington. However, that win came by only a point and they haven't exactly been impressive in wins over Cal Davis and North Texas. Now, this West-Coast based team plays an early road game in the Eastern Time Zone against an SEC opponent. While the Bears are playing good defense, the Rebels have a very experienced defense themselves, as they brought back 10 starters on that side of the ball. It was almost two years ago to the day that the Bears upset the Rebels, at Berkeley. I say the Rebels get some payback. |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane -3 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 95 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULANE. The Green Wave have a lot going for them here. They're off an absolute blowout (58-6) of Missouri State. That lopsided game allowed them to rest starters in the second half, preparing for this one. It was also at home, meaning no travel for the short week. On the other hand, Houston is off an emotional and hard-fought loss against Washington State. The Cougars left it all on the field for that one and may well experience a letdown because of. Note that they're 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an ATS cover, 0-1 ATS when off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. Tulane is 9-4 ATS over the years, off a home blowout win of 28 or more. The home team has had the advantage in this series of late. Expect that to be the case again this evening, Tulane covering the small number along the way. |
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09-14-19 | Northern Illinois v. Nebraska -14 | 8-44 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. While the Huskers are off a tough 3-point loss at Colorado, I expect them to bounce back with a big win here. Note that they're 11-7 ATS (14-5 SU) over the years, when off a loss of three or less. The Huskers are also 3-1 ATS the past four times that they'd scored 31 or more in b2b games. The Huskers haven't forgotten when NIU came in here a couple of seasons and won outright as a double-digit underdog. Almost exactly two years since that game, expect the Huskers to get some payback, picking up the cover along the way. |
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09-14-19 | Florida State +7.5 v. Virginia | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE. While the Cavs are off to a nice start, I'm not convinced that they're ready to lay this many points against a solid FSU squad. With an O/U line in the high 50s, note that Virginia is just 2-8 ATS the past 10 times it played a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. Also, note that FSU is 23-4 SU the past 27 times that it gave up 37 or more points in its previous game. Both the Seminole games have been very close, a 5-point loss and a 1-point win. Another close one won't surprise. Grab the generous points. |
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