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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-24-17 | Virginia Tech -7 v. Virginia | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 122 h 25 m | Show | |
8* ROAST on Virginia Tech. When these teams played last year, the Hokies throttled the Cavs by a score of 52-10. While it may not be quite as lop-sided this season, I do expect another formidable victory for Virginia Tech. VT most recenlty beat Pittsburgh 20-14 this past weekend, while the Cavaliers enter off a 44-28 road loss to Miami Florida. The Hokies looked particularly sharp on the defensive end last week, holding the Panthers to just 366 total yards, while also snagging two INT’s. Last week Virginia gave up 210 passing yards. The Cavs have nothing to play for, already bowl eligible and having lost four of their last five overall. I think Hokies’ QB Josh Jackson is going to have his opportunities against the Cavs’ secondary as well today. Look for VT’s defense to be just too much for the home side to handle. Lay the points, Hokies roll. |
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11-24-17 | Missouri v. Arkansas +12 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 117 h 56 m | Show | |
9* ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas. Missouri punched its sixth win of the year in last week’s 45-17 victory at Vanderbilt and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Arkansas won’t be playing in a bowl this season as it comes in at 4-7. The Razorbacks though would love nothing more than to send their seniors out with a win in front of the home town crowd in the season finale, while also trying to avenge last year’s 28-24 loss to the Tigers. Missouri averages 38.5 PPG, but allows 30.5. Arkansas averages 27.3 PPG, while allowing 35.1. No need to overthink this one. After five straight victories and becoming bowl eligible last weekend, all signs point to a mental lapse for the Tigers this weekend. Grab the points, play on Arkansas. |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss +14 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 27 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Mississippi. Ole Miss needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Or, that in fact would be the case if it had not put a self-imposed bowl ban on itself before the season started. Despite that fact though, I look for Ole Miss to push for that sixth victory today. The Runnin Rebels failed to accomplish that in last week’s 31-24 setback to Texas A&M. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but clearly Mississippi won’t be lacking for motivation today. The Rebels also play with revenge after Mississippi State crushed them 55-20 last season. The Ole Miss defense looked decent last week, giving up just 396 total yards. Its passing offense, led by Jordan Ta-amu, is ranked seventh in the nation. The Bulldogs needed to score 14 unanswered points in the final four minutes to beat Arkansas 28-21 last week. Mississippi State’s defense remains a strength and is a big reason why the team will be playing in a bowl in December. But as mentioned above though, the Rebels won’t be going down without a fight today in their final game of the year. Ole Miss enters averaging 335 passing YPG and I think Ta’amu will keep his team in this one late. Grab the points. |
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11-18-17 | Missouri v. Vanderbilt +7.5 | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 46 m | Show | |
8* BM BLOWOUT on Vanderbilt. Missouri looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after picking up its third straight win in a 50-17 destruction of Tennessee last week. QB Drew Lock has 35 TD’s and ten picks this year. The Tigers are not fantastic defensively though, allowing 426 yards and 31.9 PPG. Vandy won’t be going down without a fight despite losing six of its last seven. Last week the Commodores fell 44-21 to Kentucky. QB Kyle Shurmur has 2,192 yards, 21 TD’s and seven picks this season. Vanderbilt’s defense has been decent, allowing just 191.7 YPG passing and 30.7 points overall per contest. I like Vanderbilt to play with pride today in front of the home town crowd and to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. |
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11-18-17 | Kentucky +21.5 v. Georgia | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 17 m | Show | |
8* SUPER PLAY on Kentucky. Both teams will be playing in a bowl this year, as Kentucky is 7-3, while Georgia is 9-1. The Wildcats won’t be rolling over today. Kentucky comes in off a 44-21 road win over Vanderbilt, while Georgia is coming off a 40-17 loss at Auburn, it’s first setback of the season. With that crushing defeat still weighing heavily on their minds, I believe that the Bulldogs come in “hung over” still from that loss as the team tries to collectively grasp the enormity of the beatdown. Last year Georgia beat Kentucky, but not by much, coming out on top 27-24 form Lexington. Georgia ran into a brick wall in Auburn’s tough defense last week, but the Wildcats’ unit is nothing to sneeze at either, giving up an average of 282.3 YPG through the air and just 121.9 on the ground. Last week the Bulldogs gave up 237 yards rushing and 251 through the air. Georgia QB Jake From was only 13 of 28 for 184 yards and one TD. I’m of course not calling for an upset, but I do think that Kentucky has the people in place on the field to keep this one competitive against a Georgia team reeling from a humbling loss. Grab the points, play on Kentucky. |
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11-18-17 | Rutgers v. Indiana -11 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 136 h 48 m | Show | |
8* BREAKFAST CLUB on Indiana. Both teams are 4-6 and will need to “win out” to become bowl eligible. Rutgers has been alternating wins and losses over the last four games and enters off 35-6 loss at Penn State. Now the Scarlet Knights have to find the energy for another tough road game against an Indiana team that kept its hopes alive in last week’s 24-14 win over Illinois. Rutgers has been poor on both sides of the ball, ranked tenth defensively in the conference and dead last on the offensive side. After dropping seven straight “against the spread,” the Hoosiers are simply “due” right? While I obvoiusly don’t believe in the “due” theory whatsoever, I do absolutely feel this one sets up great for Indiana. The Hoosiers rank fifth in the Big Ten in passing with over 2,579 yards through the air. Last week freshman QB Patrick Ramsey (filling in for the injured Richard Lagow for the last three games) was very solid, finishing 66.7 percent of his passes. Home field can’t be overlooked here as a very real factor. Rutgers has been a league doormat for a while now and has gotten to this point with strong defensive play. But the Scarlet Knights lack the firepower to keep up with this high-flying Hoosiers side. Lay the points with confidence, Indiana rolls. |
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11-17-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky +3.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 120 h 16 m | Show |
10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers need one more win to become bowl eligible and they’ll be risking life and limb today as they try to achieve that, while also snapping an untimely three-game slide. MTSU also needs one more win to become eligible, but it comes in on the other end of the mental spectrum, having won two straight, most recently 35-21 victory at Charlotte. With a much more “winnable” game at home against ODU to finish the campaign, the Blue Raiders could be caught looking ahead and have a letdown here. Last week WKU QB White looked sharp, finishing 28 of 41 for 334 yards, three TD’s and a pick. I look for White to build off that performance and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points as I look for the desperate home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. |
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11-16-17 | Tulsa v. South Florida -23 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 58 m | Show | |
8* ANNIHILATOR on South Florida. Tulsa has nothing to play for and can’t even use playing “spoiler” as motivation today. And that’s because South Florida is 8-1 and looking to keep the momentum rolling with an epic matchup at 9-0 UCF next weekend. The once mighty Golden Hurricane have have fallen on hard times, losers of three straight. Last week QB Luke Skipper threw for only 157 yards, no TD’s and a pick. The Bulls continued their dominating ways in their latest outing, smashing UConn 37-20, holding the Huskies to 176 yards through the air and 100 on the ground. I have a hard time seeing Tulsa mustering much offense today. USF needs to win today to set up its big final showdown with UCF and I expect it to lay the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, Bulls roll. |
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11-16-17 | Buffalo v. Ball State +17.5 | Top | 40-24 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
10* THURSDAY ROAST on Ball State. Buffalo will need to win two straight to become bowl eligible. A game at lowly Ball State is just what the doctor ordered in Game 1. However, with a road game at league-leading Ohio next weekend, I think the Bulls are going to stumble here as they caught looking ahead. I’m not calling for the outright upset or anything, but 2-8 Ball State will look to play spoiler and notch another victory in front of the home town crowd. On paper, clearly the Bulls are the better team. However, there’s no question that the overall situation favors the underdog here (the Bulls are 1-2 ATS in their last three as a road fav.) Grab as many points as you can and expect a competitive affair. Play on Ball State. |
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11-15-17 | Toledo v. Bowling Green +17 | 66-37 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 46 m | Show | |
8* BM BLOWOUT on Bowling Green. The Green Falcons won’t be playing in a bowl this year, but I still think they offer great value in this spot. Toledo looks primed for a letdown in my estimation as well after its five game win streak was snapped at Ohio last Wednesday. And with a game with WMU to end the season, it’s obviously not hard at all to imagine the Rockets looking past their lowly opponent today. The Rockets are led by QB Logan Woodside, who leads the conference in passing yards. But as just mentioned, this is a classic spot bet scenario, as Toledo comes off a disappointing loss on the road and now must bring the same energy away from friendly confines again this weekend. And with the home game to close the season against the Broncos, there’s no doubt that it’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of the prifedul Falcons this evening. Grab the points. |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 58 m | Show |
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Miami Ohio. Miami Ohio needs to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With this game against 3-7 Eastern Michigan and 2-8 Ball State to close the campaign, the odds are actually in the Redhawks favor. But one thing at a time, up first are the Eagles. EMU has nothing to play for other than spoiler, as it lost for the seventh time in eight games in a 42-30 setback at CMU last Wednesday. The Redhawks come in on the other end of the spectrum, surging towards the finish line after winning for the second time in the last three games in a 24-14 home victory over Akron last Tuesday. Miami Ohio has domianted this series as well, winning nine straight, including a 28-15 road victory last October 29th. The Redhawks are the better team and they’re firing on all cylinders. They also won’t be lacking in motivation. Playing spoiler can only motivate a team so much and I simply don’t see that being enough for the Eagles in the end. Lay the points, Redhawks roll. |
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11-14-17 | Central Michigan v. Kent State +17.5 | Top | 42-23 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 8 m | Show |
10* ANNIHILATOR on Kent State. Kent State is horrible. It’s 2-8 (lost 48-20 to WMU in its latest action.) The only thing that the Golden Flashes have to play for today is pride. Central Michigan is decent, it’s 6-5. The Chips became bowl eligible in last week’s 42-30 win at EMU last week and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Kent State was blown out by WMU last weekend, but it will look to take advantage of a content Chips’ team and try to score the upset in its final home game of the year (at Akron next week.) I’ll point out, that while the Golden Flashes once again struggled offensively last week, the defense was in fact pretty decent, allowing 389 yards and limiting the Broncos to 3 of 15 on third downs (note that four of WMU’s TD’s were defensive.) Grab as many points as you can as Kent State delivers the solid cover with this ample spread. |
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11-11-17 | Purdue +6 v. Northwestern | 13-23 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 32 m | Show | |
9* BEST BET on Purdue. Purdue is 4-5 and is running out of time to become bowl eligible. Last week the Boilermakers kept their hopes alive with a win over Illinois and this week they’ll be looking to avenge last year’s 45-17 loss to Northwestern. Elijah Sindlear has 939 yards, seven TD’s and five INT’s for Purde this season, while DJ Knox leads all rushers with 387 yards and two TD’s. Northwestern looks poised for a letdown here, becoming bowl eligible in last week’s win over Nebraska. The Wildcats are led by QB Clayton Throson, who has ten TD’s and 11 INT’s on the year. But after four straight wins, including three straight in OT and after notching its sixth win of the year, there’s no dout that this one sets up as a trap for the home side. I like the hungry Boilermakers to take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. |
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11-11-17 | Virginia v. Louisville -11 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 140 h 58 m | Show | |
8* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Louisville. Virginia is 6-3 and thus “bowl eligible.” Louisville is 5-4 and won’t be leaving anything to chance today as it looks to secure its sxith win of the year in convincing fashion in front of the home town crowd. Virginia QB Kurt Benkert had 260 yards, three TD’s and an INT in his teams win over Georgia Tech to become bowl eligible. The Cards though won’t be lacking motivation today after losing three of their last four, including to Wake Forest most recently. In the loss to Wake, QB Lamar Jackson had 330 yards passing, one TD and an INT, as well as running for 161 yards and three more scores. With games against Syracuse and Kansas to end the year, clearly the Cardinals can’t just “look past” this opportunity. I’m expecting a rout. Louisville rolls. |
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11-11-17 | Duke -1.5 v. Army | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 33 m | Show | |
8* BREAKFAST CLUB on Duke. Duke needs two more victories to become bowl eligible and its running out of time. The 7-2 Black Knights have already punched their ticket and I believe they’re going to have a letdown here. The Blue Devils enter off a 24-3 loss to Virginia Tech in their latest action, while the Black Knights come in off a 21-0 win over Air Force. Note that when these teams met last season, Duke scored the 13-6 road win. Blue Devils’ QB Daniel Jones struggled against VT’s 13th ranked defense and finished just 10 of 24 for 82 yards, no TD’s and an INT. The Blue Devils’ defense though looked strong, holding the Hokies to just 387 yards. Army’ QB Ahmad Bradshaw didn’t attempt a single pass last week, but posted 265 rushing yards and one TD. The Black Knights also looked strong defensively, holding Air Force to just 190 total yards. Army’s competition hasn’t been nearly as tough as Duke’s though this season, which has to slog through the competitive ACC. The Blue Devils allow just 146 rushing yards per game, which doesn’t bode well for Army’s run heavy offense. I like Duke to contain Army’s one dimensional offense and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. |
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11-09-17 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -9 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 45 m | Show |
10* ROAST on Pittsburgh. UNC is 1-8 and has nothing to play for. Playing “spoiler” can only motivate a team so far and I don’t think the Tar Heels are going to muster enough of it to compete with the Panthers, who still seek one last win to become bowl eligible. UNC most recently fell 24-19 to No. 8 Miami last week. Tar Heels’ No. 1 QE Chazz Suratt was injured early and backup Nathan Elliot threw one TD and three picks in his place. The Panthers enter on the other end of the spectrum as they are off a 31-14 victory over Virginia. QB Ben DiNucci had an unspectacular 134 yards, but Pittsburgh looked great defensively and on special teams, as Quadree Anderson returned a 75-yard punt for a TD. The best thing you can say about Tar Heel football this year is that basketball season is just around the corner. I expect UNC to throw in the white towel early in this one. Panthers roll. |
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11-07-17 | Akron v. Miami-OH -4.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show |
10* BLOWOUT on Miami Ohio. Akron needs just one more win to become bowl eligible (5-4), but Miami will need to run the table if it has any shot at a bowl berth. The Zips enter off a 21-20 win over Buffalo, while the Redhawks fell to Ohio 45-28 on Halloween. Note that this is a revenge game for Miami Ohio after it lost 35-13 at Akron last year. Akron is averaging just 331.1 YPG and allowing 444.2. The Zips lost one of their leading playmakers in Warren Ball early in October, but have still managed to find ways to win lately. But I think that changes this weekend. The Redhawks average 392.8 YPG and allows 365.9. QB Billy Bhal was 28 of 51 for 350 yards, three TD’s and two picks last week and I think he’ll have his chances today against this suspect Akron secondary. Both teams need a win, however I think the pressure is on Akron here as it gets caught looking ahead to its game against conference leading Ohio at home next week. Lay the points. |
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11-04-17 | Southern Miss v. Tennessee -6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 1 m | Show | |
8* FAN APPRECIATION ROUT on Tennessee. Southern Mississippi needs just one more win to become bowl eligible, but the Vols still need three more victories and clearly they’re running out of time. Tennessee is going to be the “hungrier” team today. It’s 0-5 in the SEC and it’s lost four straight. To say Butch Davis’ job is in jeapordy would be an understatement. This is about as “must win” as you can get in the College Football regular season as you can get. Tennessee came up just short in last week’s 29-26 loss to Kentucky, while Southern Miss was throttled at home 30-12 by UAB, getting shutout in the second half of the game. Despite the Vols form, the SEC is still a step above the C-USA. I look for Tennessee to risk life and limb and to find a way to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable victory. Vols roll. |
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11-04-17 | Colorado State -2.5 v. Wyoming | 13-16 | Loss | -130 | 75 h 8 m | Show | |
9* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Colorado State. Colorado State won its sixth game of the year and then fell to Air Force 45-28 at home last Saturday. That broke the Rams conference unbeaten streak, but with that predictable letdown out of the way, I look for CSU to bounce back this week. The Cowboys come in off a 42-3 win over lowly New Mexico. Note that this is a revenge game for Colorado State after it fell 38-17 to Wyoming at home last year. Three turnovers and uncharacteristic overall sloppy play were the Rams undoing last week though. Despite the loss, CSU still averages 33.2 PPG, while allowing only 26.8. QB Nick Stevens has been superb with 2,755 yards and a 22:9 TD:INT. RB Dalyn Dawkins is another standout with 896 yards and five scores. Wyoming averages 25 PPG, while allowing only 19.3 QB Josh Allen has just 1,350 passing yards and a 12:6 TD:INT (Allen is second on the team in rushing with 162 yards and four more TD’s.) The Cowboys’ offense is a shell of its former self though, as the lack of a run game has been a major detriment to Allen (also note that his top three targets from last season are gone.) Even with the loss last weekend, CSU still has a shot to steal the Mountain Division if it wins today and then again next weekend over Boise State. I’m banking on CSU taking care of the first part of that quest on Saturday, Rams roll. |
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11-04-17 | Hawaii +7.5 v. UNLV | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 22 m | Show |
10* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii. A couple of desperate 3-5 teams from the Mountain West collide on Saturday night. Hawaii has lost five of its last six, most recently falling 28-7 at home to SDSU last Saturday. UNLV looks set for a letdown here though after its 26-16 upset win over Fresno State on the road last Saturday. Hawaii holds the all time series lead 12-10, but UNLV has taken two straight, including a nail-biting 41-38 road win last October. Hawaii was unable to contain SDSU’s Rashaad Penny, who had a huge game last weekend. Overall Hawaii ranks 89th in scoring with 25.1 PPG, while ranked 107th in scoring defense in allowing 34.6. Warriors’ QB Dru Brown has 1,976 passing yards and a 13:7 TD:INT. UNLV averages 30 PPG and allows 33.6. Rebels’ QB Armani Rodgers is a poor 1,063 yards with a 5:4 TD:INT (does have 535 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.) But after last weekend’s big win over the Bulldogs, a victory which snapped Fresno State’s perfect conference mark, I believe UNLV has a predictable letdown here. I also believe that Brown can match pace with Rodgers down the stretch. Grab the points. |
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11-04-17 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern +4 | 21-17 | Push | 0 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
8* ANNIHILATOR Georgia Southern. Admittedly, Georgia Southern is a bad football team. It’s 0-7 and just 1-5-1 ATS. But the Eagles will look to play spoiler today as 4-3 Georgia State comes to town, still needing two more wins before becoming bowl eligible. Georgia State enters off a 21-13 home win over South Alabama, while Georgia Southern lost 38-16 to Troy last weekend (this is a revenge game for the Eagles after they fell 30-24 to the Panthers last year.) Georgia State QB Connor Manning is having a decent season, with 1,711 yards and a pedestrian 9:5 TD:INT over seven outings. Georgia State is one dimensional though, with a weak run game. The Panthers also looked decent on the defensive side of the ball, limiting South Alabama to just 338 yards. Are the Eagles really as bad as their record would indicate? Georgia Southern’ QB Shai Werts so far has 503 passing yards and a 3:4 TD:INT. A silver lining behind the sub-par effort last week was the run game, which produced 227 yards, with Wesley Field leading the way with 83 yards and TD. Georgia Southern also looked a lot better on the defensive side of the field, giving up just 383 yards in the setback. Georgia Southern continues to try and compete and has slowly gotten better over the last month. I think that progression carries over here and while I’m not calling for an upset, I do think it’ll be a nail-biter. Grab the points. |
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11-03-17 | UCLA v. Utah -6.5 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 55 h 45 m | Show |
10* FIST-FIGHT on Utah. Both teams are struggling and each is desperate to reach the six-win mark, as both sit with a record of 4-4 currently. The Utes opened the season with four straight victories, but they’ve now dropped four in a row, most recently a 41-20 setback to Oregon. UCLA is just 2-4 in its last six, most recently succumbing 44-23 to Washington. In that game, QB Drew Rosen left in the third frame with an injury and he’s doubtful for this one (if he does manage to suit up, clearly he’s not going to be at 100%.) UCLA owns the worst run defense in the league, giving up an enormous 307.1 YPG this year. Last week the Huskies posted 333. UCLA backup QB Devon Modster was serviceable in Rosen’s replacement, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full today if he’s forced into the start. Utah can empahthize. Last week the Utes gave up 347 yards to the Ducks on the ground. Utah QB Tyler Huntley was 25 of 43 for 293 yards, two TD’s, but was sacked four times. Utah has problems in all three phases, but UCLA is in serious trouble now with the injury to Rosen. I think this is the perfect opponent for Huntley and the Utes to get untracked against. Utah rolls. |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE (8* ANNIHILATOR). While the Lions come in with the superior overall record, I believe the Buckeyes are favored for good reason. Yes, the Buckeyes got upset by Oklahoma back in early September. However, they've been absolutely dominant since, winning all five games by more than 30 points. In fact, they've topped the 50-point mark in each of their last four games. The Lions have only played two games on the road and neither of those venues were anywhere close to this one. They did win big at Northwestern but barely won (21-19) at Iowa. Over the past 2+ seasons, they're still only 5-6 SU on the road. Going back further finds PSU at just 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) the last seven times that it was listed as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 point range. During that stretch, Ohio State was 10-7-1 ATS (14-4 SU) as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Buckeyes come in with a score to settle, after getting upset (as 17.5 point favorites) at Penn State last season. The most recent meeting here? A 38-10 victory for the Buckeyes. I'm expecting another double-digit victory on Saturday afternoon. |
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10-28-17 | San Jose State v. BYU -13 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 103 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU (10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK). Enough is enough. The Cougars badly need a victory and the Spartans should provide them the perfect opportunity to get one. Since playing a 'neutral' site game (not really!) at the Superdome against LSU, the Cougars' home games have come against Utah, Wisconsin and Boise State. Needless to say, all three of those teams are far stronger than SJ State. The Spartans have lost their four road games by an average score of 47 to 13.7 and they've been outgained in those games by an average of 530.7 yards to 350 yards. The Spartans are just 5-11 ATS (1-15 SU) the past 16 times that they were road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Expect the Cougars to take out their frustrations on Saturday afternoon, bouncing back with a convincing blowout win. |
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10-28-17 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia +7.5 | 50-39 | Loss | -115 | 114 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WVU (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). Some of you will recall me successfully backing the Cowboys when they upset the Mountaineers last season. At the time, despite playing at home, OSU was getting several points. In this year's rematch, OSU is now laying an even bigger number than WVU was last season, despite this game being played at Morgantown. Both teams check in off close victories. The Mountaineers had to "hang on" to beat Baylor by two. The Cowboys, meanwhile, needed OT to beat Texas by three. While the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range this season, the Mountaineers are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 53.7 to 23.7. The Mountaineers come in with a score to settle. While I'll happily grab all those generous points, I expect them to rise to the occasion and score the outright upset. |
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10-28-17 | Buffalo University v. Akron -3 | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AKRON (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). The Zips haven't forgotten last year. They traveled to Buffalo, having won three of four and with a 5-2 record overall. The Bulls, on the other hand, had dropped four straight games by double-digits and were just 1-6 overall. Playing on a cold Thursday night, the Zips were laying nearly three touchdowns. However, the Bulls rose to the occasion with a 41-20 upset victory. This year's rematch finds Akron laying a MUCH smaller number, despite now playing at home. While the Bulls are admittedly playing better than last seaso, I still feel this line is too low and is providing us with excellent value on Akron. The Zips are 7-4 ATS (8-3 SU) their last 11 against sub-500 teams. Catching the Bulls off three straight tough losses, expect the Zips to improve on those stats, while getting some payback from last year at the same time. |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -3 v. Boston College | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Obviously, the Seminoles are not having the type of season that they were hoping for. Prior to the season beginning, few would have expected them to have half as many victories as Boston College, at this stage of the season. This should be an excellent spot for the Noles to get back on track though, while showing the ESPN audience that they're not as bad as their record indicates. Note that FSU is 2-0 SU/ATS against the Eagles the past two seasons, winning by a combined score of 59-7. While the Noles have thrived as small road favorites over the years, the Eagles have struggled as small home underdogs. Overall, the Eagles are just 5-12 ATS their last 17 home games. Off their loss vs. Louisville, note the Noles are a perfect 7-0 SU the last seven times that they were off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-26-17 | Toledo v. Ball State +26.5 | Top | 58-17 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE (10* BEST BET). With all due respect to Toledo, which has admittedly been playing pretty well, I feel that this pointspread is too high. The Rockets, who could easily get caught looking past the Cardinals ahead to Northern Illinois, have yet to win a road game by more than 20 points. Speaking of not winning by more than 20, note that the Rockets were laying -20 (at Toledo) for last year's game but won by 19. The previous season, when the teams played here, the game was decided by 14 points. While Ball State has struggled of late, it has still won two of its three home games. Last week's home loss came on the heels of a bye and after they'd just played three straight on the road. With no travel in between games, for the first time since a 28-13 victory on 9/13, expect the Cards to show some pride, giving their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. |
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10-21-17 | Fresno State v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU (10* GAME OF WEEK). I waited to release this selection, as I was anticipating the line to fall. Now that is has, I'm ready to jump on it. The Bulldogs may have been better than the Aztecs last week but that doesn't mean that they're the better team. Even factoriing in last week's results, the Bulldogs are still just 3-8 SU their last 11 October games. During the same stretch, the Aztecs were 10-2 SU in October games, covering the spread in nine of those 10 victories. While the Aztecs are 14-3 their last 17 at home, the Bulldogs are 2-13 their last 15 on the road. The Aztecs, who are allowing a mere 264.7 yards per game in conference play, have beaten the Bulldogs by 14 each of the past two seasons. They've dominated this conference (18-3 21) and I'm expecting them to bounce back with another double-digit victory on Saturday night. |
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10-21-17 | Indiana v. Michigan State -6.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE (8* ANNIHILATOR). While I successfully played against the Spartans in last week's non-cover at Minnesota, I expect them to deliver a 'blowout' victory on Saturday afternoon. Indiana, 5-8 SU/ATS its last 13 off a conference loss, played very well last week but ultimately lost in OT against Michigan. That type of loss can take a toll on a team; I expect that to be the case here. At 5-1 the Spartans are playing well. I believe they've got an advantage on the field and in the coaching department. They also haven't forgotten that the Hoosiers upset them (at Indiana) last season. The last meeting here resulted in a 52-26 blowout win for the Spartans. I'm expecting another relatively one-sided affair. |
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10-21-17 | Purdue v. Rutgers +10 | 12-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on RUTGERS (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). With all due respect to Purdue, I believe this line, which has climbed from its opener, is too high. Sure, Rutgers got blown out by Ohio State. There's no shame in that though. Other losses against Washington and at Nebraska were by an average of less than two touchdowns, as the Knights were relatively competitive in both, covering in each. Their last two games against "beatable" opponents both resulted in double-digit wins. The only time the Knight really stumbled this season, losing a game which they expect to have won, was a 3-point loss. While the Knights bring in some positive momentum from their double-digit win over Illinois, the Boilermakers are off a loss at Wisconsin, their second setback in three games. Playing their second straight road game, expect the Knights to give them all they can handle. |
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10-20-17 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +7.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW MEXICO (10* MAIN EVENT). Its true that the Rams have dominated the Lobos in recent seasons. Its also true that New Mexico is coming off an embarrassing 38-0 loss. Those two facts have helped in providing us with very generous line value on the Lobos on Friday night. Note that CSU was only laying -3 the last time it played here. (That one was close the whole way and finished with a final score of 28-21.) Also, keep in mind that the Rams are playing their fourth road game in their past five, a difficult scheduling situation. Additionally, consider that the Rams only beat Nevada by two points last week, despite being a 24-point favorite. Meanwhile, New Mexico is actually an outstanding 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU!) the last six times it was off a conference loss. The Lobos are 2-1 here at home, the lone loss coming by only two points. Last time here? The Lobos hammered Air Force by a 58-38 margin. Expect them to bounce back with a much better effort, en route to AT LEAST a cover. |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -122 | 81 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. While Memphis has the higher rating, I believe Houston, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS its last five on a Thursday, is favored for good reason. Memphis is just 2-8 ATS the past couple of seasons, off a conference win and 3-9 ATS off b2b SU victories. They're just 15-35 ATS their last 50 lined games, in that situation. After losing by four last season, the Cougars have payback on their minds. Expect them to come away with the victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-14-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +4.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 125 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). With last week's upset of Michigan, the Spartans just won their Super Bowl. Off that massive victory, I feel they're going to have trouble producing the same type of intensity for a road game against the Gophers. That'll prove costly though as Minnesota, which is off back-to-back losses, is going to come in hungry. It should be noted that the Spartans are 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Gophers are a perfect 4-0 ATS, when coming off consecutive losses. Thats a combined 10-0 ATS; numbers I expect to improve on Saturday. |
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10-14-17 | Boston College v. Louisville -21.5 | 45-42 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). I successfully played against the Cardinals in their last game. However, that was on the road against a talented NC State team. Now, well rested and angry from that loss, the Cards return home and step down in class. Off their previous loss, they responded with a 42-3 victory in their next game. When they played at Boston College last season, the Cards won by a 52-7 margin. Catching the Eagles off their fourth loss in five games, expect another one-sided affair. |
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10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +14.5 | Top | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 110 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on CAL (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams have been going in opposite directions. The Cougars have won all six of their games while the Bears are off three straight losses. Those results have helped in providing us with an extremely generous line. Keep in mind that two of Cal's three losses came on the road and that the other was against USC. The Bears covered that one, losing by 10. The Cougs are in unchartered territory. They followed up their upset of USC with a road win at Oregon. Off those huge victories, on a short week and playing their second straight road game - the only time this season that they'll play consecutive games outside the state of Washington - I believe this is going to prove to be a tough spot. Give me all those points with the highly motivated home underdog. |
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10-12-17 | Texas State +14.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS STATE (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Bobcats still have a way to go. This is a much improved team from the one which finished 2-10 last season though. The Bobcats are far more experienced than they were last year and they've now got a coach in his second season here. On the other hand, I don't believe that the Cajuns are necessarily as strong as they were last season. Thats not surprising, given that they lost their QB, their top RB and their top WR. Yet, last season, the Cajuns were laying only -5.5. True, that game was at Texas State, while this one is at Lafayette. Still, we're now getting a far more generous line to work with. I don't believe the 2-3 Cajuns have shown they deserve to be laying this high a number. Both their wins came by five points or less. The Cajuns are now 5-9 ATS here the past 2+ seasons. They're also 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were favored in the 10.5 to 21 point range. Give me all the points I can get. |
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10-07-17 | Washington State v. Oregon -2 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OREGON (8* PERS FAV). Its true that the Cougars have had success in this series. They won big at Washington State last season and upset the Ducks here the previous year. This year, the Cougs check in off a win against USC and with an undefeated record. While they've got a talented QB and have certainly been playing well, lets keep in mind that this is their first road game of the season. The Ducks may be dealing with a few injuries but they're still undefeated here at home. They're also a profitable 43-21-1 ATS the last 65 times they played a game where the line ranged from +3 to -3. Expect the Ducks to rise to the occasion and to get some payback Saturday night, avenging the recent losses and handing WSU its first loss of the season. |
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10-07-17 | SMU v. Houston -6 | 22-35 | Win | 100 | 108 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* GAME OF MONTH.) The home team has won big each of the last two seasons. Last year, playing at SMU, the Mustangs won by a score of 38-16. The previous season, the Cougars won 49-28. I expect another big win for the home team on Saturday. While the Cougars may have lost at SMU last season, keep in mind that they were actually massive favorites for that game. They entered that game with a national ranking and left without one. While this year's Houston team has a new coach, it also returned 15 starters from last season. Needless to say, they haven't forgotten. Admittedly, the Cougards have missed QB Ward from last season. This should be a great spot for the passing game to get healthy though. While Houston returned numerous starters on both sides of the ball, SMU returned only five defensive starters. Over their past four games, the Mustangs have allowed 424, 365, 284 and 408 passing yards. In their only game against a "good" team, the only time they were previously underdogs, the Mustangs allowed 56 points. Lay the relatively small number with the revenge-minded Cougars and expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU -13 | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TCU (8* ANNIHILATOR). Last year, playing at West Virginia, the Mountaineers hammered TCU by a score of 34-10. This year, playing at home, I expect the Frogs to return the favor. The last meeting here at TCU resulted in a 40-10 win for the Frogs. They were laying -12 for that Oct. 2015 game. The Mountaineers returned only eight starters from last year's team, just three on defense. The defensive line, in particular, took a hit. That hasn't proven costly the past few weeks as WVU has been dealing with the likes of Kansas, Delaware State and ECU. However, the Frogs are (obviously) in an entirely different class. Prior to their bye, you may recall that I backed them when they crushed Oklahama State by 44-31. Every TCU game has been decided by at least that many points as the Frogs are outscoring opposing teams by a 47.7 to 18.5 margin. In two home games, TCU has won by an average margin of 59.5 to 18. Expect another blowout. |
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10-07-17 | Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Syracuse | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). I love when I'm getting points with what is arguably the superior team. That Panthers "got healthy" with a 42-10 beating of Rice last week. On the other hand, the Orange are off back-to-back hard fought road losses, each against strong opponents. I believe those close losses will take a toll on Syracuse this week. The Panthers won by 15 at Pitt. last year after winning by three here in 2015. Expect the Panthers to earn AT LEAST a cover Saturday afternoon, improving to 3-1 ATS the last 2+ seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. |
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10-06-17 | Boise State v. BYU +8.5 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU 10* MAIN EVENT. Both these teams are off to disappointing starts to the season; each lost again last week. The Cougars lost 40-24, at Utah State. The Broncos, who were favored by two touchdowns, vs. Virginia, lost 42-23. Playing at home, I expect BYU to be the team which bounces back with an ATS victory. These teams have met each of the past five seasons and the home team has earned the SU victory in each game. The Cougars, who were 4-1 ATS in those games, won the last two meetings here at BYU by scores of 35-24 and 37-20. After they lost by one at Boise last season, grab the points with the revenge-minded Cougars. |
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10-06-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut +15 | 70-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCONN (8* ANNIHILATOR). While the Huskies may be struggling, I don't believe that the Tigers deserve to be laying two touchdowns on the road. Memphis will be playing its second straight road game, the first time it has done so. The Tigers lost their last game (at UCF) by 27 points. The previous week, they were laying -30 points and only won by 13. In fact, all three victories came by less than 14 points, the other two wins coming by eight and three points. The Huskies won one home game and lost the other by three points. This game provides the Huskies with a chance to show the world (on ESPN) that they're better than their recent record shows. I expect a highly motivated effort and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State +4.5 | Top | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 77 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on NC STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect the Cardinals, I feel that they're in for a very tough test on Thursday. Off four straight wins, the Wolfpack come in full of confidence. This team has talent on both sides of the ball, one with a win at Tallahassee under its belt. That win over Florida State, its best game of the season, was the only time that NC State has been an underdog this season. The Cards are without Jaylen Smith, their top receiver. That didnt cost them in last week's easy game but may prove more costly here. Petrino said this of Smith: "He won't play next week. It's a sad thing. He's been playing really, really well for us, and he's our go-to guy, and he's going to be out for a while." With last week's non-cover at vs. Murray State, the Cards are just 2-7 ATS in Weeks 5-9 the past 2+ seasons. I'm grabbing the points. |
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09-30-17 | Troy v. LSU -19 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on LSU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Trojans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting hammered at Miss. State a couple of weeks ago, the Tigers strugged with Syracuse last week. They eventually finished off the Orange though, pulling away for a 35-26 win. Having prevailed, that "wakeup call" officially behind them and with four games now under their belt, I expect the Tigers to put together a complete game here. Note that LSU was 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) in Weeks 5-9 the past two seasons. While Troy has just one win its last 20 games against SEC opponents, LSU is 10-6 ATS (16-0 SU) its last 16 against the Sun Belt. I'm expecting a blowout. |
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09-30-17 | Syracuse v. NC State -11.5 | 25-33 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NC STATE (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). The Wolfpack are off an extremely impressive victory over Florida State, their third straight win. This team is strong on both sides of the ball and I expect the players to carry the positive momentum from the big win into this afternoon's game. Note that they're now 5-1 ATS their last six, when off two or more consecutive SU victories. The Orange played pretty well themselves. However, it wasn't enough as they ultimately fell short against a superior LSU team. Playing their second straight road game, I expect that hard-fought loss to have a deflating effect on the Syracuse players. This is typically a tough spot for Syracuse; over the years the Orange have been dismal as road underdogs in this range. Recently, they're 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) their last six as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 range. The Wolfpack have dominated the recent series including double-digit wins each of the past two seasons. In last year's 35-20 victory at Syracuse, the Wolfpack had a 41:18 to 18:42 edge in possession, a 27-10 lead in first downs and a 548 to 218 advantage in terms of total yards. More of the same Saturday afternoon. |
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09-29-17 | BYU -3 v. Utah State | Top | 24-40 | Loss | -115 | 120 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Cougars check in off three straight losses and with an ugly 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) record on the season. Those results have worked in our favor by keeping this line lower than it could have easily been. Keep in mind that the Cougars were laying -17 for last season's game. Granted, that was at BYU. However, the point remains that this line could easily be higher. The Cougars won last year's game by a a 28-10 margin, by the way. They had a 249-97 edge on the ground, a 26-11 advantage in first downs. The previous year, the Cougars came here to play. Favored by a field goal, they won by a score of 51-28. Once again, BYU had a big edge on the ground, outgaining the Aggies by a 202-74 mark, in terms of rushing yards. In fairness to BYU, the last three games (LSU, Utah, Wisconsin) have been pretty tough. The Cougars were underdogs in each, so losing them all wasn't a shock. Needless to say, the Aggies represent a considerable step down in class. This is BYU's first "true road game;" the Cougars are 7-2 ATS on the road the past couple of seasons. With the Aggies just 3-10 ATS (1-12 SU) as underdogs, during the same stretch, lay the small number and expect the Cougars to "get healthy" on an opponent which they know they can dominate. |
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09-28-17 | Texas -4 v. Iowa State | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 97 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). Losing to Maryland was NOT the way that the Longhorns wanted to begin the Tom Herman era. I like the way which they've responded though. They crushed (56-0) a weak SJ State team immediately following the Maryland loss. Next, they very nearly upset a strong USC team, losing 27-24. I like the fact that they had some extra time off from that 9/16 game out on the west coast. Now, the start of Big 12 play represents a "fresh start." Laying two touchdowns at the betting window, the Longhorns won last year's meeting by a score of 27-6. While the Longhorns returned 17 starters from that team, the Cyclones only returned 11. Expect superior talent to win out, the Longhorns scoring their first road win/cover under Herman. |
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09-23-17 | Mississippi State v. Georgia -4 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA (8* MAIN EVENT). Admittedly, the Bulldogs looked pretty good last week. This is a tough spot though. They're off one of their biggest wins in years, playing in an extremely hostile environment, against a talented Georgia team which is full of confidence and which is "thinking big" this season. While the Bulldogs are without QB Eason, Jake Fromm has more than held his own. Fromm had a strong spring and hasn't missed a beat in flling in for Eason. Georgia senior tight-end Jeb Blazevich had this to say of Fromm: "I'm so proud of him. He is an awesome guy, and he has a crazy, hard work ethic. He just wants to be the leader of this team, and I think he's not afraid to step up and do that. I think he's not afraid to take chances, and he's not afraid to put himself out there. He just gives it all he's got." That win over Notre Dame, two weeks ago, was a very big one for this loaded Georgia team. Catching the Bulldogs, 2-5 SU/ATS their last seven off a conference win in a tough spot, expect the Bulldogs to deliver a "statement win" on Saturday night. |
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09-23-17 | TCU +13 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 126 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Cowboys have indeed looked impressive. However, I believe this line will prove to be too high. The Frogs, 7-4 ATS their last 11 as road underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range, have arguably looked every bit as impressive as their hosts. A 3-0 start has seen them outscore opposing teams by an average score of 49 to 14.3. Averaging more than 500 yards of offense themselves, the Frogs are allowing just 265. A 28-7 blowout at Arkansas shows they can win on the road. They're going to come in full of confidence. They're also going to come in with "payback" on their minds, as OSU embarrassed them (at TCU) last year, a game in which the Frogs were favored. The Frogs are 5-2 ATS their last seven as underdogs. I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle here, earning AT LEAST another cover. |
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09-23-17 | Texas Tech v. Houston -4.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on HOUSTON (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). The Cougars come in loaded with confidence, off a 38-3 thrashing of Rice. Prior to that, they'd gone on the road and beaten Arizona. The Red Raiders, on the other hand, have yet to play on the road. Note that they're just 4-16-1 ATS (2-19 SU!) their last 21, when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. The Cougars are 11-1 SU (9-2 ATS) their last dozen non-conference games. They're also a perfect 10-0 SU their last 10 in September. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. |
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09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona +4.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams are off impressive wins. The Utes dropped 54 points on SJ State on Saturday night, improving to 3-0 SU/ATS on the season. Averaging 36.7 points, they've allowed 16 or less in all three games. The Wildcats, who were off a tough loss vs. Houston the previous week, were every bit as dominant as the Utes. They bounced back and destroyed UTEP by a 63-16 margin. One difference is that Arizona's win came on Friday, as opposed to Utah's Saturday night victory. That means Arizona will be playing on a "normal" week while Utah will play on a "short" one. A day doesn't sound like much but it can indeed be significant. While Utah (barely) won and covered at BYU, the Utes are still 9-15 ATS the last 24 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Wildcats are an improved team from the one which lost at Utah last season. They upset the Utes here in 2015, as 5-point underdogs, and I expect them to give them all they can handle once again. |
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09-21-17 | Temple v. South Florida -20.5 | Top | 7-43 | Win | 100 | 82 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on USF (10* ANNIHILATOR). Both teams have had success overall at the betting window in recent seasons. That hasn't been the case so far this year though. Temple is off to an 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU) start. USF earned its first cover last week, improving to 1-2 ATS and 3-0 SU. The home team has won fairly comfortably, each of the last two meetings. Now, the gap between these teams is arguably wider than it has been. USF is loaded with experience and marching towards a New Year's Day bowl. The Bulls also haven't forgotten that these same Owls prevented them from a possible 12-1 season. (The Bulls would finish at 11-2, the only other loss coming vs. Florida State.) The Owls have already shown they can be blown out, losing by 33 at Notre Dame, the only good team they've faced. Payback time on Thursday. |
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09-16-17 | Stanford v. San Diego State +9.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 63 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on SD. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I believe that this is a very tough spot for Stanford. As you may be aware, the Cardinal gave up more than 600 yards (623) in last week's loss. Granted, that was against a very potent USC team and the Aztecs dont have nearly that type of attack. That said, that type of beating figures to have a lingering effect. That being the case and with UCLA up next, it might be hard to focus on the Aztecs. That figures to be a mistake though; SDSU comes in full of confidence, off b2b double-digit wins to start the season. Confidence breeds success. At least it has for this team in the recent past. The Aztecs are 13-2 SU and 11-3 ATS the last 15 times that they were off b2b SU victories. With Stanford just 2-5-1 ATS its last eight, as a road favorite in the -7.5 to -10 range, I'm grabbing the points. |
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09-16-17 | Oklahoma State v. Pittsburgh +14.5 | 59-21 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). The Cowboys are off b2b SU/ATS wins and the Panthers off a 19-point loss at Penn State, preceded by a non-cover vs. Youngstown State, a game which went to OT. Those results have the Panthers getting double-digits at the betting window, a number which I believe is generously high. Last season, the Panthers gave the Cowboys all they could handle, losing by seven. The Cowboys will be playing their second consecutive road game and they've got TCU on deck. As for Pitt's loss at Penn State. The Nittany Lions are the #4 team in the country and the Panthers actually outgained them by a 342 to 312 margin, in terms of total yards. The Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. |
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09-09-17 | Western Kentucky v. Illinois +7.5 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 84 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on ILLINOIS (10* GAME OF WEEK). (Big 10 Network) It wasn't pretty but the Illini escaped their opener with a win. Often, surviving a tougher than anticipated challenge can be good for a team. I expect that to be the case for the Illini, that close win serving them well this week. While the Hilltoppers have indeed been a dominant team in their conference, they're 0-6 all-time against Big-Ten teams. Now, they're being asked to go on the road and lay points. Yes, the Hilltoppers return their star QB, Mike White. However, he lost a lot of the weapons around him. Receivers Taylor and Norris combined for 180 catches and 31 TDs last season. They've moved on. Likewise for Wales, who ran for 1600 yards last year. Throw in a a few losses on the line and White might not find things quite as easy this week as he often does. Consider also that in addition to the personnel losses around him, White is working with a new coach and new system, playing their first road game. The fact that the Hilltoppers were laying -39 points in their Week 1 game and only won 31-17 supports the idea that they're not going to be as potent this season, at least not initially. They've traditionally struggled in road openers and I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. |
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09-09-17 | Old Dominion v. UMass +3.5 | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UMASS (8* SHOCKER). I'll gladly grab the points but I like the underdog's chances of winning this one outright. Massachusetts has played an extra game and that figures to serve the Minutemen well here. True, the Minutemen are 0-2. However, they're offense has moved the ball effectively in both games, scoring 35 and 28 points, respectively. After this game comes road games at Temple and Tennessee. The means if they don't win this one, the Minutemen could easily find themselves 0-5 by the end of September. The Monarchs offense was far from impressive in a 31-17 win against Albany. In fact, they registered only 12 first downs. Their QB, making his first start, threw for only 161 yards while getting picked twice. All-Conference USA running back Ray Lawry went down in that one, which hurt the offense. While his status remains uncertain, as of this writing, even if he returns, its possible that he's less than 100%. Either way, I'm grabbing the points. |
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09-09-17 | Iowa v. Iowa State +3 | 44-41 | Push | 0 | 99 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on IOWA STATE (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). The Hawkeyes won big last season. However, the Cyclones have gotten a lot better since then. After dropping their first three games in lopsided fashion, one of those against Iowa, the Cyclones were far more competitive. They had a few victories (including a 66-10 blowout of Texas Tech) and lost a number of games which they could have won. This year, they're stronger on both sides of the ball. With a new QB, I don't believe the same can be said of Iowa. Last season notwithstanding, these games are often close. I could see this one coming down to the wire, Iowa State with a great shot at the upset, and am grabbing the points. |
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09-09-17 | Buffalo v. Army -16.5 | 17-21 | Loss | -108 | 76 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARMY (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). For a service academy, this is an experienced Army squad. The players haven't forgotten what happened against Buffalo last year. They entered that game with a 3-0 record and riding high. Entering the fourth quarter, they were still up by 14 points. However, things fell apart from there as the Bulls inexplicably scored 17 straight, ultimately losing by a field goal in OT. That loss set them on the wrong path; the Knights would go on to lose against Duke in their next game and against North Texas a couple of games later. Now, its payback time. Two years ago, the Knights opened their season with a loss against lowly Fordham. They'd go on to finish 2-10. They were much better last year and they should be better still again this year. Last week, they opened up against Fordham again. This time, they won by a 64-6 margin, avenging the previous loss in decisive fashion. Coach Monken commented: "... To be able in two years to compare the job we did Friday night with what happened in the past, I hope that’s encouraging. Maybe again, this Saturday will be an opportunity to measure where we've grown in a year." Remembering what happened last year, expect the Knights to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way, en route to another convincing win and cover. |
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09-08-17 | Ohio +4.5 v. Purdue | Top | 21-44 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO. While the Bobcats played a "cupcake" (Hampton) and Boilermakers played a "powerhouse" (Louisville) I like the fact that Ohio won huge 59-0 a lot more than the way Purdue narrowly lost to the Cardinals. Purdue deserves credit for playing Louisville tough. However, the close loss figures to take a toll on them this week. Grab the points. |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -115 | 83 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bruins will have payback in their minds. You'll recall that the Aggies beat them (31-24) in OT to open last season. That was at College Station though. Now, the Bruins are the home team. They also figure to be in for a much better year. Of course, after last season's 4-8 record, there's really only one way to go. That said, this is indeed going to be a vastly improved team. Needless to say, the Bruins are desperately going to want to avoid going down the same path as last year. Rosen is surrounded by plenty of weapons and a highly experienced offense. This is his chance to shine in the spotlight - against an Aggie secondary which often struggled last year. I dont think the Aggies, who may have more important things (Hurricane Harvey and the problems in Texas) on the back of their mind, will be able to keep up. Bruins avenge last year's loss and cover the small number along the way. |
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09-02-17 | South Alabama v. Ole Miss -23.5 | Top | 27-47 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on OLE MISS (10* GAME OF WEEK). You may recall that the Jaguars were also in the state of Mississippi for their opening game last season. Listed as 28-point underdogs, at Starkville, they won outright 21-20! Just imagine. A middle-tier Sun Belt team comes down and beats you, an SEC team, on your own field. Not the way you want to start a season! This isn't Starkville though and these aren't the Bulldogs. Expect the Rebels to have learned a lesson from that game - and for them to come in looking to get some payback for their state and conference. As Shea Patterson had to say: "We're treating South Alabama like it's Alabama." The Rebels are 13-0 SU and 8-5 ATS their last 13 against the Sun Belt. They're also 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) their last 17 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63.5 range. Expect the Rebels to improve on those stats Saturday, the SEC settling the score. |
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09-02-17 | Nevada v. Northwestern -24 | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NW (8* ANNIHILATOR). This one could easily turn ugly. While they lost last year, the Wildcats are still a healthy 8-2 their last 10 home openers. This year's team is experienced and should be much improved on offense. Nevada is relatively inexperienced on offense and figures to struggle against a stingy Wildcat defense which allowed just 17.7 ppg here last season. While the Wolfpack do bring back some players on the defensive side of the ball, they weren't very good defensively last year, allowing 456 ypg. The Wildcats were 7-5 ATS when laying points the past couple of seasons, 1-0 ATS when favored at home in the -21.5 to -31 range. Expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. |
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09-02-17 | Ball State v. Illinois -7 | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ILLINOIS (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). The Illini are historically at their most dangerous in their opening game of the season. Thats largely, of course, due to the fact that they schedule an "easy game" out of the gate. Last year, they were -33 point favorites against Murray State. They won by 49. The previous season, they were laying "only" -13.5 points against Kent State. Yet, they won by an indentical 52-3 margin. The previous few seasons all resulted in double-digit SU victories. In fact, Illinois has won 19 straight home openers, those victories coming by an average of 26 points. Admittedly, Ball State is a bit tougher than many of those 19 opponents. That said, I believe the Illini will still be able to pull away for another double-digit win. They have experienced backs running behind what should be a fairly solid offensive line. Thats going to spell trouble for a Ball State team which is very inexperienced on defense. The Illini were 5-2 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons. Expect them to continue their "opening day success" and improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe v. Memphis -26 | Top | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Tigers are hoping for and expecting a big year. Last season, despite a new coaching staff and having to break in a new QB, the Tigers went 8-5. While they do lose their offensive coordinator, this year's team should be explosive on offense, as they essentially return all their players on that side of the ball. While the Tigers do have some questions on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary, UL Monroe doesn't have the weapons to take advantage. Expect the Tigers to jump on top early, which will ultimately force the Warhawks out of their running game and lead to a lopsided statement blowout. |
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08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass +3.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 1640 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on UMASS 10* ANNIHILATOR. One could make a case for this being the most important game of the Minutemen's entire schedule. This is a team which needs confidence out of the gate and which also almost certainly needs a win in this game, if it wants to entertain thoughts of getting to six wins. I believe the Minutemen are going to come ready to play. They return their QB and have talent at the offensive skill positions. Tight end Adam Breneman ranks near the top of his position. The defense gets a new coordinator but that figures to be a good thing. They're far more experienced on that side of the ball than they were last season. Hawaii is a team which the Minutemen can compete against. Look for a highly motivated effort from the home team, the lumps the Minutemen took last season paying off for them in this game. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama -6 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -125 | 177 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on ALABAMA 10* MAIN EVENT. Last year, I took the points with Clemson. The Tigers lost but covered. This year, I'm laying the points with Alabama. Why the change? While this year's Tigers are off a very impressive win over Ohio State and off another outstanding season, they're no longer undefeated. Last year, they came in with an undefeated record and the swagger/confidence that comes with it. This year's team knows what its like to lose, as it gave up 43 points in a loss against Pittsburgh. (The Panthers were just one of four teams which scored 34 or more against them.) To their credit, the Tigers rebounded nicely. Still, in the back of their minds, they know that even last year's undefeated team couldn't beat Alabama. Note that last year's Clemson team entere the game against Alabama averageing slightly more yards per game, while also allowing slightly less, than this year's team. Meanwhile, the Tide are arguably better than ever. Last year's Alabama team had a loss on its resumé. This year's team has crushed every opponent for months. This year's team averages more yards on offense (and more points per game) than last year's team had entering the Clemson game, while also allowing fewer yards and fewer points. In addition to the Pitt loss, Clemson got seriously tested by Auburn and Florida State as well as both NC State and Troy. The Tigers couldn't beat any of those teams by more than a touchdown. On the other hand, no team has stayed within single digits of the Tide since way back in September. The Tide were 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season; the Tigers were 5-5 ATS. While the move to release Kiffin was indeed a little controversial, I believe it shows just how serious Saban is about this one. I expect his team to get the message and when the smoke clears, I expect them to deliver another double-digit win. |
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01-02-17 | Western Michigan +9.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on WMU 10* BOWL GAME OF YEAR. Getting more than a touchdown at the betting window, I don't feel that the Broncos are getting enough respect. Sure, the schedule was pretty soft. However, this is still a team with a perfect 13-0 record. Winning breeds confidence and this team has plenty of it. Just like a fighter who has never tasted defeat, a team which has never lost gets a feeling of invincibility and that tends to make them even better. Eleven of the Bronco wins came by double-digits. While Wisconsin will admittedly be the strongest team which they have faced, its worth mentioning that the Broncos did beat a couple of Big-Ten teams (Northwestern and Illinois) along the way. Overall, the Broncos were 4-0 SU/ATS in non-conference games. They're now 11-3 ATS against non-conf. opposition the past few seasons. As per usual, the Badgers are a tough physical team. The Broncos know that but they're sick of hearing everyone say that Wisconsin is going to run all over them. WMU senior defensive end Keion Adams had this to say: "We're quick, we're smart. Wisconsin, they haven't necessarily seen a defense like us. Yeah, we're smaller, but at the same time we're fast. So I feel like our 'how' as far as 11 hats to the ball, if they came with energy, came with passion, that'll be the difference-maker." The Badgers lost their last game, their third defeat on the season. They also had another four games where they won by eight or fewer points. So, thats seven different teams, out of 13 faced, which they've failed to beat my more than eight points. While they weren't in that role often this season, the Broncos are 11-3 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. I expect the Broncos, who average 43.5 ppg and 496.7 ypg, to give the Badgers all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. |
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12-31-16 | Washington v. Alabama -13.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on ALABAMA 10* GOW. The Huskies have certainly had a great season. I believe that they're going to find out that Alabama is still in a different class though. The Huskies fared well within the Pac-12 but their non-conf. schedule was quite weak and the Pac-12 wasn't particularly strong this season. The one team that did beat the Huskies this season was USC, a team Alabama destroyed by a 52-6 margin. The fact that they haven't been an underdog all season, says something about the Huskies' schedule. The Tide are 9-4 ATS when laying points. The Huskies failed to cover against OSU the only time that they played with two or more week's rest this season. The Tide won and covered at LSU when they did so, not allowing a single point. When the dust clears, I expect there to be no doubt who the superior team was. |
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12-31-16 | LSU v. Louisville +3 | Top | 29-9 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE 10* BC GOY. The Cards struggled down the stretch. However, this is still a very dangerous team, the same one which absolutely crushed Florida State (63-20) in a game earlier in the season. I believe they're going to be very motivated to prove that they're better than they've shown. Beating LSU would get rid of the bad taste from the last couple of games and make for a successful season. There is no denying that LSU has plenty of talent and the Tigers would obviously also love to close out 2016 with a win. That said, the year overall has been a massive disappointment and they're already looking ahead to bigger things in 2017. Even a victory here won't change that. This was a team that came in thinking it could be the national champion. While I like their chances of the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points with the Cards, who haven't been underdogs all season, and who are 5-3 ATS in that role the past 2+ seasons. |
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12-30-16 | South Alabama +14 v. Air Force | 21-45 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTH ALABAMA 8*. While South Alabama obviously isn't one of the stronger bowl tewams, I don't believe that Air Force should be laying this many points. South Alabama hasn't lost a game by more than 15 points all season. Air Force's last three victories came by three, three and seven points. Since blowing out Abilene Christian and Georgia State at home in the first two weeks of the season, the Falcons have only won one game (Army) by more than 14 points. Don't be surprised if this one comes down to the wire. |
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12-28-16 | Kansas State v. Texas A&M -2.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on A&M 10* ME. The Wildcats check in as the hotter team but I feel that the Aggies are favored for good reason. Despite having to contend with an SEC schedule that included the likes of Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Tennessee, the Aggies stats are arguably superior to the Wildcats' stats. Texas A@M scores more points and puts up far more yards, while only allowing slightly more on the other side of the ball. While the Aggies were able to beat both Auburn and Tennesee, the Cats lost to all three of the top teams in their conference. Both teams faced a Pac-12 team early on. The Cats lost to Stanford. The Aggies beat UCLA. Snyder will have his team ready and the Cats are not to be taken lightly. All the same, look for the Aggies to be the last team standing. |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest v. Temple -11.5 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEMPLE 10* ME. I've won my last few games involving MAC teams, successfully backing Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio, while also winning with the Ohio/Troy total. None of those MAC teams are in the class of the Owls though. I backed the Owls in their last game and they rewarded me with a 34-10 blowout win over Navy. They've been a covering machine all season, as they've dominated on both sides of the ball. Off six straight double-digit victories, no opponent has stayed within two TDs since mid-October. Off three straight losses, losing by a combined score of 96-39, I don't believe the Demon Deacons are going to be able to match the Owls' confidence or intensity. Wake Forest is decent defensively but Temple is better. Meanwhile, the Owls have a signficant edge on offense. Still not getting quite the respect it deserves, Temple closes an outstanding campaign with yet another blowout win. |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt +6 v. NC State | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on VANDERBILT 10* BB. Both these defenses are pretty good. With an O/U line in the mid 40s, points are expected to be fairly hard to come by. That makes getting a handful of extra points with the surging Commodores pretty attractive. Vanderbilt closed the season with a 38-17 victory over Ole Miss and a 45-34 win over Tennessee. Though they didn't have to face Albamba, no SEC team beat the Commodores by more than single-digits this season. With the exception of an early-season loss at G-Tech, an ACC team that NC State managed to avoid, the Commodores were competitive in every game. They're 6-3 ATS when getting points. The defense has been respectable all season and the offense came to life down the stretch. As for the Wolfpack, the only teams that they beat by more than a TD this season were Syracuse, Wake Forest, Willam and Mary and Old Dominion. Both teams saw six of their games decided by seven or fewer points. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. |
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12-26-16 | Miami (OH) +14.5 v. Mississippi State | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Miami Ohio 8* BC. This is a big game for the RedHawks; I believe it will mean more to them than it will for the Bulldogs. The current Redhawk senior class started their careers here with an 0-12 season. They've come a long way and I look for them to give it all they have here. While the competition has admittedly been rather weak, the RedHawks are off six straight wins. That'll give them the confidence to believe they can compete. A look at the Redhawks last 11 games shows that only one resulted in a loss by greater than 10 points. Speaking of close games .... prior to blowing out rival Ole Miss in their last game, the Bulldogs had lost b2b games and five of seven. Other than Ole Miss, the Bulldogs only beat one opponent by more than 13 points all season, 15-point win over Samford. With the Bulldogs 1-5 ATS as favorites and the RedHawks 7-2 ATS as underdogs, I'm taking all those generous points. |
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12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii +7.5 | Top | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on HAWAII 10 ME. I already liked the Warriors' chances of winning tonight and with this line climbing from its opener, I feel that they're offering very fair value. While I played against them at times (like when they lost 66-3 at Michigan) this season, the Warriors fought hard down the stretch to get here, winning by a point at Fresno State and then beating UMass by six. They bring some positive momentum into the game, with their QB coming off the best game of his career. I believe that the advantage of playing in Hawaii will prove to be signficiant. The Blue Raiders certainly had a solid season. Their QB hasn't played in quite some time though and they haven't faced nearly the type of opposition that Hawaii has. While the Warriors have faced the likes of Michigan and Boise (as well as SD State and New Mexico) to go along with Pac-12 teams like Cal and Arizona, the Blue Raiders' toughest opponents were Missouri, Vanderbilt and LA Tech. Sure, the Raiders looked good their past couple of games. Those were against Charlotte and FAU though. Their previous two games resulted in double-digit losses against UTSA and Marshall. They lost those games by 20 and 25 points. In fact, the (77-56) win over FAU in the finale was the first time that the Blue Raiders won a game by more than seven points since 10/1. With the Raiders just 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine in December, I'm taking the points. |
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Old Dominion | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN 8* BC. I've successfully backed the MAC team in this bowl each year of this bowl. Central Michigan covered in 2014 and Western Michigan won fairly convincingly last season. I feel that the value lies with the MAC team once again this season. ODU has certainly had a strong season and makes for a good story. Still, this is the Monarchs first ever bowl game and C-USA was pretty weak this season. Note that the Monarchs avoided LA Tech and lost 59-24 against WKU, the other two top teams in the conference. Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, took on most of the top teams from the MAC and has wins against bowl teams Ohio and Wyoming. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS when getting points and 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. They're 3-0 ATS their last three against C-USA opponents while the Monarchs are 0-2 ATS their last two against the MAC. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm taking the points. |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan +13 v. Tulsa | Top | 10-55 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN 10 ME. While I respect Tulsa, I believe this line is generously high. The Golden Hurricane can score points with the best of them. However, they have trouble stopping other teams. Despite their successful overall season, they were outscored by a 36.5 to 36 margin in going 3-3 on the road. Two of their last three games were decided by a field goal or less. Speaking of close games, the Chippewas have seen three of their last four games decided by a touchdown or less. Admittedly, their offense isn't quite as potent as Tulsa's. However, they still averaged better than 400 yards of offense when playing on the road and I expect them to have success against the suspect Tulsa D. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Chippewas were 6-3 ATS off a conference loss and 9-5 ATS when facing a non-conf. opponent. During that same stretch, the Golden Hurricane were only 5-7 ATS in non-conf. action and just 1-4 ATS when favored in the -10.5 to -21 range overall. Before writing off the Chippewas, lets not forget that this team beat Oklahoma State earlier in the season. They had to deal with some injury issues but are healthier now. In what should be a high-scoring affair, I'm taking the points. |
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12-17-16 | Appalachian State v. Toledo -1 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on TOLEDO 10* PERS FAV. These teams will both be hungry to get to 10 wins for the first time. I feel Toledo will have the advantage. The Rockets lost only two games on the road and those losses came at Western Michigan against a very solid Broncos team and at BYU, by only two points. When playing on the road at Arkansas State, the other team (along with Appalachian State) which dominated the Sun Belt this season, the Rockets won by a score of 31-10. Admittedly, the Mountaineers defense has been stingy. However, the two teams which had some success against them (Miami and Akron scored 45 and 38 points against them) were teams which attacked them through the air. Toledo, which won 48-17 at Akron, and which averages 38.8 ppg compared to the Zips' 27.4 ppg, has the type of offense able to also have success against the Mountaineer defense. QB Logan Woodside has 43 TD against just nine INTs this season, completing 69% of his passes and nearly 4000 yards through the air. Look for the Rockets to finish on top. |
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12-17-16 | Houston v. San Diego State +3 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 144 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. There are a number of reasons why I like the Aztecs. I like the fact that the Aztecs come in off a win and that they last played two weeks ago. By comparison, the Cougars are off a loss and that came way back on 11/25. Off that loss, disappointed to be here and with their coach having bolted for the greener pastures of Texas, the long layoff figures to impact the Cougars negatively. The Cougars, 0-2 ATS off a conference loss, are 3-6-1 ATS in the favorite role. I'm taking the points. |
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12-10-16 | Army v. Navy -6.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on NAVY. I won with Army when these teams faced each other last season, the Black Knights covering as large underdogs. I also successfully played against Navy just last week. So, some might be surprised to see me back the Midshipmen here. Last week's play was more of a play on Temple than one against Navy. The Owls are rolling and I felt that Navy was going to have trouble against them. Last season's play on Army was a case of grabbing the value, as I felt the line was far too high. Navy, which was laying -21.5 points, only scored 21. Things are different here though as the Midshipmen are laying a touchdown, or less. As you likely know, Navy is down to its third string QB, after Worth got injured last game. Last week didn't work out too well for his replacement Zach Abey. We cant really judge him on that performance though. He was thrown into a game unexpectedly, facing a very good defense and he was forced to throw the ball, as Navy was behind. Things will be much different on Saturday and Abey will be able to get back to running a more typical Navy offense. While much is being made about the fact that Navy doesn't get an extra week (like it normally does) off before this game, keep in mind that the Midshipmen have beaten the likes of Houston and Notre Dame, a team which destroyed Army 44-6 only a month ago, and that they didn't have a bye before either of those wins either. Also, while the Knights do get that extra rest, they're just 12-35 ATS (11-38 SU) the last 47 times they played after a bye. (During that stretch, Navy was 103-68 ATS when playing with six or fewer day's rest.) Even with the QB situation, I feel Navy is again the much stronger team. I expect the Midshipmen to extend their streak of dominance in this series, covering the reasonable number along the way. |
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12-03-16 | San Diego State -6 v. Wyoming | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* GOW. The Cowboys upset the Aztecs here on 11/19. Don't expect it to happen again. In terms of line value, note that San Diego State was laying -8.5 points for the 11/19 game. Now, we get to play the Aztecs laying less than a touchdown. Even with the earlier loss, they're still 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites. Both teams can score points. The Aztecs average 36 points, the Cowboys average 38.2. The Aztecs have a considerable advantage on the other side of the ball though. They allow 20.7 points and 318.9 yards per game. The Cowboys, on the other hand, allow 35.5 point and 474.9 yards per game. Over their last three games, the Cowboys are allowing an average of 52.7 points and 577.3 yards. In conference play, they're allowing 491.2 yards per game and 36.4 ppg. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are allowing a mere 17.4 ppg and 296.9 yards. You get the idea. I'm backing the revenge-minded team with the far superior defense. |
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12-03-16 | Temple +3 v. Navy | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 139 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEMPLE 8* BC. The Midshipmen have had an excellent season and are playing very well. After scoring 42, 66 and 75 points in their last three games, the Midshipmen are absolutely worthy of respect. That said, the Owls have also had an excellent season and are also playing very well. In fact, they've won six straight, covering the number every time. Going back further finds them at a perfect 11-0 ATS their last 11 games. Since a season opening upset loss to Army, nobody has beaten the Owls by more than seven points and all but one of their victories came by double-digits. That includes a 46-30 beatdown of South Florida, a team which defeated Navy. Over their last three games, the Owls have allowed a grand total of 10 points and an average of only 175.7 yards in those games. While the Midshipmen are predictable, they're still tough to stop. That said, I believe this stingy Owls defense will slow them down. While Temple allows 273.4 ypg and 264.8 per game on the road, Navy allows 440 ypg overall and 460 per game at home. Look for the Owls' vastly superior defense and the a more balanced offense to prove the difference. |
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12-02-16 | Colorado +7.5 v. Washington | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -125 | 124 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO 10* MAIN EVENT. With an 11-1 record and fresh off a 45-17 beatdown of instate rival Washington State in the Apple Cup, the Huskies have had a great year. They're outscoring opponents by a whopping 44.7 to 17.8 margin. That said, I don't feel that they should be laying this many points against a Colorado team which has also enjoyed an excellent season. I successfully backed the Buffaloes in their very first game of the season, a 44-7 blowout of rival Colorado State. At the time, I stated that the offseason offensive changes were likely going to lead to a vastly improved offense. That proved to be accurate as the Buffaloes have averaged 34.7 points, allowing just 18.7 Colorado and Washington both lost to USC, the only "conference loss" for each. (Note that Buffaloes played the Trojans much tougher, as they lost by only four points, at USC. Meawhile, Washington lost by 14, despite playing at home.) Colorado's only other loss came at Michigan and its likely that Washington also would have lost there. So, while Washington does have the better record, those records could well be the same, if both teams had played the same schedule. With the Buffaloes a perfect 4-0 ATS in the underdog role, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-26-16 | UMass v. Hawaii -7.5 | Top | 40-46 | Loss | -102 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on HAWAII 10* GOW. I believe that the Minutemen have packed in their season and that they'll be more interested in "enjoying the island life" than putting in the work necessary to snap their losing skid. UMass is off a 51-9 beating at Provo, the second straight time it gave up more than 50, and hasn't beaten an FBS opponent since hosting Florida International in Week 3 and hasn't beaten anyone on the road all season. Defense has been an ongoing issue, as the Minutemen give up more than 34 points and more than 450 yards per game. While the Minutemen are limping towards the finish, the Warriors snapped their own losing skid last time out. A victory will give them six wins and they should be highly motivated to play well. The Minutemen haven't played at home since late October. Look for the travel and losing to catch up to them here, the Warriors happy to take advantage and kick them while they're down. |
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11-26-16 | Tulane v. Connecticut | Top | 38-13 | Loss | -106 | 94 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCONN 10* GOY. If I had a phone, it would have been ringing off the hook after I released this play. People would be asking me a variation of: "How can you release your 'Game Of The Year' on a team which is playing out the string and which is off back-to-back shutout losses?" While its true that the Huskies are off b2b shutout losses, there are a number of reasons why I really like them on Saturday afternoon. The Huskies are playing a Tulane team which is also off a shutout loss and which is also playing its final game of the season. While the Huskies have lost five straight, Tulane's skid is even longer. The Green Wave, who have won just three of their past 17 road games, have dropped six in a row overall. I'd argue that the Huskies have more talent but thats certainly debatable. Both defenses have been "respectable" while both offenses have been terrible. The Huskies' stats at home are arguably a little better though. While the Huskies have been outscored by an average of 19.3 to 16.2 in going 3-3 at home this season, the Green Wave have been outscored by an average margin of 29.6 to 17, in going 1-4 on the road. Its been a long season for both teams. That said, I like the fact that the Huskies have played one less game in November. They'll be playing their third game this month while the Green Wave will be playing their fourth. While I've mentioned the stats, in this "type of game," I believe that finding "the more motivated team" is often the single most important factor in determining which team ends up on top. I expect that to be case here and I fully expect it to be the Huskies which are more motivated than their guests. Last week was "Senior Day" for Tulane. It was unfortunate for the Green Wave that they had to face Temple, as the Owls are really rolling right now. Either way, Tulane got smoked. The Green Wave hung around for awhile but the Owls ultimately pulled away for a 31-0 blowout; a tough way to say goodbye to 12 seniors. As Tulane head coach Willie Fritz noted: "Congratulations to Temple, they whipped us." Off that blowout loss in the final home game, I believe its going to be difficult for Tulane to "get up" for its final road game. On the other hand, the Huskies should have no trouble "getting up" for this one. UConn coach Bob Diaco says "he's the guy" for this job and seemingly has the support of both his players and the athletic director. The team had made big steps under him prior to taking a step back this season. He's determined to close the season on a high note and I expect him to have his players feeling the same way. Diaco had this to say: "I know exactly what needs to be fixed and I'm going to fix it ... Nothing seems like it is going well on the outside looking in, as a perception standpoint. But I'm here to tell you that's not true." With no pointspread to worry about, I'm backing what I believe will be the hungrier team. Look for UConn, which Diaco once said "was built to play close games" and which won 8-3 at Tulane last season, to "dig deep" and finish on top. |
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11-25-16 | Nebraska v. Iowa -1 | Top | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on IOWA 10* PERS FAV. While I respect the Huskers, I look for homefield to prove the difference on Friday afternoon. After stumbling in back-to-back games, the Hawkeyes have responded in impressive fashion. After beating Michigan, as huge underdogs, two weeks ago, they delivered a 28-0 shutout win at Illinois. Dominant defense and a dynamic duo of running backs, each with more than 850 rushing yards, running behind a very good offensive line. That's a tough combination to beat. Look for the Huskers, who are getting outscored by an average of 30.0 to 17.7 on the road, to find that out. |
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11-25-16 | TCU +3 v. Texas | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 69 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU 10* BEST. Both these teams lost a game they wanted and needed to win last week. While neither team was impressive, in my opinion, TCU's loss will be easier to bounce back from. The Frogs were hosting a red hot Oklahoma State team. Though they were favored, losing to the Cowboys wasn't exactly "shameful." However, getting blown out 31-6, the most lopsided home loss in 16 years under Patterson, was. Off that type of beatdown, I believe that Patterson will have be able to get his message through, prior to this important game. The Longhorns are off a much different type of loss and I believe that it will be tougher to recover from. Favored my more than 3 TDs against lowly Kansas, the Longhorns lost outright, in OT. Off that loss and now 16-20 here at Texas, its safe to say that Charlie Strong is on the hot-seat. In fact, even a win here may not save his job. (Earlier in the week, the Austin American-Statesman reported that Strong's firing was inevitable, saying of Strong: "He knows what is coming.") Don't expect Patterson's Frogs, 6-2 the last eight times that they were getting points, to have any sympathy. They pounded Texas by a combined 98-17 score the past two seasons. This one figures to be closer, but I look for TCU to finish on top once again. |
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11-24-16 | LSU v. Texas A&M +7.5 | Top | 54-39 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on A@M 10* ROAST. Both teams were hoping to be in a better spot than they are. Each have lost two of their last three to fall out of the rankings though. With both teams playing on a short week, I like the fact that the Aggies are playing at home and they've already had a chance to 'bounce back' with a win (they beat UTSA last game) though, while the Tigers are still licking their wounds off the Florida loss. While the Tigers are still going to have some success on the ground, the expected absence of Fournette is a blow. Texas A@M defensive end Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 sacks last week, should have the Aggie defense fired up. Last year, at LSU, the Tigers were laying -6.5. The previous season, here at College Station, the Tigers were laying -3. (They won by six.) We're getting a considerably more generous line to work with here and I believe thats providing excellent value. While the Aggies have indeed struggled as favorites, they're 1-1 ATS when getting points, beating Auburn outright and failing to cover vs. Alabama by a point. Meanwhile, the Tigers are only 3-7 ATS their last 10 on the road. I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-19-16 | UL-Monroe v. Appalachian State -25.5 | Top | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE 10* BLOWOUT GOW. If the Mountaineers are bring the right mindset, which I believe they will, this one has the potential to get ugly. Don't get too excited about the Warhawks' 2-game "winning streak." Those wins came against a pair of teams which are a combined 2-10 in conference play. The Mountaineers are strong on both sides of the ball, much stronger than the Warhawks. While the Warhawks may have played better this month, their defense is still allowing 45.5 ppg on the road, to go along with an ugly 544 yards allowed per game. Combine that with the fact that the offense averages only 18.2 ppg on the road and you can see why UL Monroe has been on the wrong side of a few blowouts. The last two times that the Warhawks played on the road, after also playing on the road the previous week, they lost by a combined score of 109-17. Speaking of blowouts, last year's game saw the the Mountaineers win by a score of 59-14. So, the question becomes less a matter of "are the Mountaineers capable of winning big against this team (we know they are) and more a matter of "how will they respond" to a tough loss against Troy. While that was indeed a tough loss to swallow, I expect the Mountaineers to be determined to bounce back by taking out their frustrations on someone. This is their regular season home finale and I look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma State v. TCU -4 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on TCU 10* BC. While the Cowboys are on an impressive roll, I expect it to come to an end Saturday afternoon. The Frogs got back on track in a big way in their last game, a 62-22 (confidence-building) dismantling of Baylor. They ran for 431 yards and threw for another 257. They've since had a bye. While they stumbled earlier at WVU, off a bye, they're still an impressive 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven, off a bye. Speaking of "6-1," its also worth mentioning that TCU is 6-1 SU/ATS its last seven at home, when the O/U line was listed at 70 or greater. While the Frogs were resting and preparing, the Cowboys are off a hard-fought 45-44 win over Texas Tech. With that non-cover, they're now 3-6 ATS their last nine in November. It should also be mentioned that they've got a game against hated Oklahoma on deck. The home team has won big each of the past two seasons. Look for another win and cover for the home team here, the Frogs improving to 13-5 their last 18, off a conference win. |
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11-18-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati +7.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI 10* BEST BET. There's a big rivalry between these schools and games are often close. Last year's game was decided by seven points and I won't be surprised if this one also gets decided by a TD or less. While the Bearcats have admittedly had a tough season, they're still fighting hard. This is a chance to beat a rival and to win their final home game, while also giving them five wins heading into the finale at Tulsa. To say that they'll be highly motivated is likely an understatement. While the Bearcats have struggled, Memphis hasn't exactly been dominant either. In fact, they're just 1-6 ATS their last seven games. While we have to go back a number of years, the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. In a game that could well come down to the wire, I expect them to improve on those stats with at least another cover tonight. |
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11-12-16 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -6.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA 10* GOW. As some of you will recall, I successfully played against the Huskers last week. Off their first loss, a hard-fought setback vs. Wisconsin, and playing the second of b2b difficult road games, I thought the Huskers would be "ripe for a letdown." Sure enough, they lost 62-3. That blowout loss will keep some people off Nebraska this week. That, in turn, has helped to keep this line lower than it would have been otherwise. I expect them to bounce right back with a huge effort though and believe that Minnesota is the the perfect opponent to do so against. The Gophers may have won four straight. However, none of those opponents (or venues) were as dangerous as this one. While the Gophers are 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive wins, the Huskers are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. Regardless of who is behind center, the Huskers have a very talented offense and should have no trouble moving the ball. I don't believe that the one-dimensional Gophers will be able to keep up. Nebraska won big last year and I expect another double-digit win this evening. |
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11-12-16 | LSU v. Arkansas +7.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -125 | 121 h 0 m | Show |
'm playing on ARKANSAS 10* BEST BET. I backed the Razorbacks last week and they rewarded me with a win over Florida. I believe they're offering excellent value once again here. LSU is off a tough loss against archrival Alabama. That loss killed the Tigers' dreams of running the table under interim coach Ed Orgeron. Thats a tough pill to swallow and I believe it'll leave them a little deflated here. After getting destroyed by Auburn, the Razorbacks benefitted from a bye. Coach Bielema made the most of it, making some changes on defense. While its never wise to read too much into a single performance, the changes worked remarkably well; the Razorbacks were dominant defensively against the Gators, allowing a mere 12 yards on the ground. While the Tigers obviously have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, they really struggled on offense last week, the same problem that led to Myles' release. The Razorbacks beat LSU by a 17-0 score the last meeting here, almost exactly two years ago. They also upset them at LSU, almost exactly one year ago. Including that result, they're 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they were getting points. I expect at least another cover here. |
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11-12-16 | Army v. Notre Dame -13.5 | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ND 8* ANNIHILATOR. While I lost with the Irish last week, I expect them to bounce back with a blowout win this afternoon. Off games against the likes of Stanford, Miami and Navy, ND is stepping down in class considerably. Off games against North Texas, Wake Forest and Air Force, the opposite is true for Army. Note that the Black Knights lost two of those three games, each loss coming by at least 17 points. While we have to go back some time, note that Army is 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times it was a neutral field underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. During the same stretch, the Irish ere 2-1 ATS as neutral field favorites in the same range. There is undoubtedly a big game for the Black Knights. However, they're up against a team that's bigger, stronger, faster and more talented. Look for that talent disparity to show itself here, as a determined Irish team bounces back with a statement win. |
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11-12-16 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -12.5 | 36-49 | Win | 100 | 114 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE 8* BC. I successfully played against Kentucky last week. The Wildcats fought hard but ultimately came up short vs. Georgia. Off that tough loss, I expect the Cats, 5-9 ATS their last 14 off a conference loss, to be a little flat for this week's game. That'll prove costly as the Vols will be ready to jump all over them. Again. Tennessee won last year's game by a 52-21 score. The last meeting here at Tennessee was even more lopsided. The Vols won 50-16. The Cats are 1-2 away from home, getting outscored by an average score of 33.3 to 16 and outgained by an average of 479.3 to 297.3. They're also just 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Off a 55-0 romp over Tennessee Tech, the Vols check in full of confidence and ready to deliver another beating. All signs point to them doing just that. |
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11-10-16 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia Southern -8 | Top | 33-26 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN 10* PERS FAV. The Eagles broke through with a "cover" at Ole Miss last week, putting up more than 400 yards of offense. Returning home and stepping down in class, for a game which they badly need to win, I expect them to follow it up with a blowout win. I say that the Eagles "badly" need the game as they're 4-5 at the moment and need wins to have a shot at a bowl. Their next game is on the road and their final game is against Troy, a team which has currently won six straight. In other words, they need to take advantage here. The Cajuns aren't that good these days and are headed towards a second straight losing season. They've dropped four of their last five, the last two of those losses coming by double-digits. The lone win came vs. Texas State, the worst team in the conference. The fact that both teams are on a short week figures to favor the home team. In my opinion, the Eagles are stronger on both sides of the ball. They're healthier and I expect them to also be hungrier. I'm expecting a double-digit win. |
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11-09-16 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois +7 | Top | 31-24 | Push | 0 | 52 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS 10* MAC ATTACK. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by seven points or less, Northern Illinois winning all five. While its Toledo which is favored this time round, I'm expecting another close one. With this game being played on the South Side of Chicago, the Rockets will be playing the second of b2b games away from home. They failed to cover the only other time that they were in that situation this season, a non-cover at Eastern Michigan on 10.8. The Huskies got off to a slow start but have turned their season around. The Huskies are averaging 39 ppg their last three games, compared to the Rockets' 35 over their last three. While Toledo is fighting to try and catch Western Michigan, NIU is fighting to stay its bowl hopes alive. I'm grabbing the generous points. |
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11-08-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -1 | Top | 48-41 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE 10* BEST BET. This is a very big game for both teams. Eastern Michigan badly wants a victory, as one more would make them bowl eligible. Off back-to-back losses, losers of three of their last four and playing their regular season home finale, the Cardinals should also be extremely hungry. I expect them to have the advantage against an Eastern Michigan team which is coming off two consecutive losses of its own. While the Eagles gained 33 yards on the ground last time out, the third time in four games they ran for less than 90 yards, the Cards have run for more than 250 yards on the ground in each of their last three games, 298, 256 and 356. The Cards have owned the Eagles over the years. With an edge on the ground and the venue in their favor, I'm expecting more of the same Tuesday night. |
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11-05-16 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -14 | Top | 3-62 | Win | 100 | 146 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* GOW. While the Buckeyes are off four straight pointspread losses, I expect them to break out with a big win and cover Saturday evening. The Huskers had hoped to come into this game with an undefeated record. However, they lost at Wisconsin (in OT) last week, their first setback of the season. Losing the first game, for a team which had dreams (even if those dreams were unrealistic) of an undefeated season can be difficult to bounce back from. The Buckeyes can attest to that fact. After getting upset at Penn State a couple of games ago, they struggled to "get up" for Northwestern last game, winning by only four. They did win though and now can move forward. I believe they're ready for a break-through performance while the Huskers, playing their second straight road game, may still be thinking about "what could have been." The Buckeyes are more skilled and have more depth. Look for Meyer to have them ready to deliver a blowout. |
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