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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-14-15 | Texas v. West Virginia -8.5 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 118 h 19 m | Show | |
I am playing on WEST VIRGINIA (vs Texas) as my *9 Customer Appreciation Blowout Saturday @ Noon ET - Texas is off of a big win last week but there were two keys to that victory. The Longhorns were facing a horrible team (Kansas is winless this season) and UT was at home for that game. Note that in true road games this season (so not including the neutral site Red River Rivalry game) the Longhorns have gone 0-3 and been outscored by a combined margin of 112 to 10. As you can see, Texas hasn't just been losing on the road, the Longhorns have been getting absolutely annihilated in their road games. That doesn't bode well for the Horns in their match-up this week as they travel to West Virginia. The Mountaineers have gone 4-1 in their home games this season. Their only home loss was to Oklahoma State and the Cowboys are still undefeated on the year and that loss came in overtime. So what about the 4 Mountaineer wins? Those have come by a combined margin of 161 to 49 and this is the ideal situation for another home blowout as the Mountaineers host a Texas team that simply has not traveled well this season. West Virginia was very impressive on defense last week as their 3-3-5 held the potent Red Raiders offense to a yardage total that was more than 200 yards below their season average. As for UT's big win over Kansas, the Longhorns actually were outgained by the Jayhawks! That is a good indicator of the blowout potential in this game for West Virginia who also plays this game with double revenge against the Longhorns. |
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11-13-15 | USC v. Colorado +16 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 17 m | Show |
I am playing on COLORADO (vs. Southern Cal) as my *10 CFB Game of the Week on Friday @ 9 ET - It will be a chilly evening in Colorado on Friday night. Not exactly typical of the weather the Trojans are used to down in sunny Southern California. This does appear to be a bit of a trap game for USC and I expect the Buffaloes to be a tough out as a scrappy home dog. Colorado is off of a rare poor effort against Stanford. Prior to that game the Buffaloes had only two losses by more than an 8 point margin this entire season. Colorado is a dangerous place to visit late in the season and can be a tough out as a home dog. The Buffaloes are on an overall 10-3 ATS run in home games. The Trojans are 11-21 ATS in their last 32 games as a road favorite. The fact that USC is favored by more than two touchdowns here is offering even more value on what should be a chilly, raw night in Boulder, Colorado. Statistically, the Trojans only rank slightly better on each side of the ball in comparison with the Buffaloes. USC has been more efficient on both sides of the ball in terms of the relationship between yardage and points but, the point is, in terms of moving the ball on offense and limiting others production on defense, there is not a large gap between these two teams. Certainly there does not appear to be one large enough to justify this big line. USC is 2-8 ATS when they are on a winning streak of two or more games. Colorado is 3-1 ATS as a home dog in a range of 14.5 to 17 points. |
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11-12-15 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech -3.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -106 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
I am playing on GEORGIA TECH (vs Virginia Tech) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Thursday @ 7:30 ET - The Yellow Jackets have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Hokies. Their option attack, no matter how strong a defense might be, is never that easy to defend. With that said, Virginia Tech has not been as strong on defense this year as they have been in prior seasons and a road game at Georgia Tech is unlikely to help matters for Virginia Tech. The Hokies dominating win over Boston College on Halloween may look good on paper but the Eagles have one of the worst offenses in Division I football this season! That defensive effort, though impressive, almost needs stricken from the records when trying to gauge the Virginia Tech defense. That said, in their other three road games this season, the Hokies have allowed an average of 30 points per game. That spells trouble as Virginia Tech now faces a Yellow Jackets team that has averaged 43 points per game in their home games this season. Georgia Tech is angry off of their upset loss at the hands of the Hokies in Virginia. The Yellow Jackets also know that they must win out to become bowl eligible. All these factors in favor of the home team have me siding with Georgia Tech in this one as they should win in a rout. |
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11-11-15 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +3 | 41-27 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 19 m | Show | |
I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (vs Bowling Green) as my *9 Customer Appreciation Special on Wednesday @ 8 ET - Western Michigan has dominated this series and I see no reason for that to change in this season's match-up either. The Broncos have won each of the last four meetings with the Falcons and the average margin of victory has been 25 points per game. Western Michigan is certainly playing at its peak level right now. The Broncos absolutely crushed Ball State in their most recent game. Not only was the final score 54-7, the yardage edge was 711 to 152. That kind of dominance means the Broncos confidence is sky high heading into this big match-up with the top team in the East Division, Bowling Green. Western Michigan comes in as a home dog in this one and this adds even more value to the Broncos as their series dominance should continue here. Western Michigan QB Terrell has thrown 13 TDs and 0 INTs in his last 5 games. Broncos RB Bogan has 9 TDs in his last 4 games. Overall, the Broncos have covered 14 of their last 19 games and their yardage edge at home (178 more than opponents on average) has been quite telling this season. Look for more of the same Wednesday. |
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11-07-15 | Utah v. Washington -1 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -106 | 144 h 22 m | Show |
I am playing on WASHINGTON (vs Utah) as my *10 PAC-12 Game of the Year Saturday @ 7:30 ET - The Huskies had lost three of their four games prior to facing Arizona last week. Washington then proceeded to absolutely crush the Wildcats in a 49-3 final and I expect the Huskies to carry forward some momentum from that game right into this week's big match-up with Utah. Series history is certainly on the side of the Huskies as, though most of it is quite dated, Washington is 8-0 all time against the Utes. The Huskies absolutely dominated both sides of the ball last week as they shut down an Arizona team that had been moving the ball quite well on offense. That gives the Huskies defense a big confidence boost heading into this match-up with Utah. The Utes seem to be stuck in a "sluggish mode" right now and it's the perfect time to fade them again as they can't seem to shake the doldrums. Utah suffered their first loss of the season two weeks ago against USC and then seemed quite sluggish in their unimpressive win last week over a weak Oregon State team. Statistically the Huskies are the better defense in this match-up and they hold the home field edge as well as the situational edge as the Utes still seem stuck suffering from 'unbeaten letdown' since the loss to the Trojans. Washington keeps Utah's downward spiral going Saturday. |
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11-07-15 | South Carolina +16.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 140 h 25 m | Show |
I am playing on SOUTH CAROLINA (@ Tennessee) as my *10 Game of the Week Saturday @ 4 ET - After winning three straight in this series, South Carolina has been upset each of the last two years. Perhaps this is they year the Gamecocks get the big upset? Whether that occurs or not I certainly do feel these big points are well worth the taking. Tennessee seems overpriced here with an inflated line. The Volunteers are facing a South Carolina offense that got some confidence back with arguably their best performance on offense this season in their 35-28 loss to A & M last week. The Gamecocks defense has been a weakness this season but with a resurgent offense and catching Tennessee off back to back big games, I expect South Carolina to 'hang around' in this game all the way through. The Volunteers had a big game with Alabama two weeks ago and then got a big road win at Kentucky last week. Not sure the Vols have enough left in the tank to earn a blowout win here. Look for South Carolina to give them quite a scare in this one as they stay close throughout. |
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11-07-15 | Florida Atlantic +25 v. Western Kentucky | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 137 h 45 m | Show | |
I am playing on FLORIDA ATLANTIC (@ Western Kentucky) as my *9 Breakfast Club Saturday @ 12:00 ET - When you are having a tough season like the Owls are this is actually a game that, as a team, you really get up for. It is your chance to make a statement. This is the homecoming game for Western Kentucky and, in an otherwise lost season, this is the chance for Florida Atlantic to come in and spoil the event. Now certainly that is a tall order and that is why the Owls are such a big dog here but I do expect Florida Atlantic to be much more competitive in this game than what the line would lead you to believe. The Owls have actually moved the ball better than what their points per game average would lead you to believe. Also, the Western Kentucky defense has actually given up more yards per game than what the points allowed would lead you to believe. This is creating some additional line value here because the Hilltoppers truly do have a weak defense and the Owls truly do have an offense capable of putting up points in a "backdoor cover" situation. Florida Atlantic is on an amazing 15-4 ATS run as a road dog and, overall, the fave has only covered twice in the Owls last 18 games home or away. As you can see, a lot of value with the big points as dogs in Florida Atlantic games continue to be undervalued. |
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11-07-15 | Akron v. UMass -1 | 17-13 | Loss | -106 | 137 h 43 m | Show | |
I am playing on UMASS (vs Akron) as my *9 Best Bet Saturday @ 12:00 ET - Off of a rather tight loss to Central Michigan and with an in-state rival (Miami, OH) on deck, I would not be surprised to see Akron a little flat for this game. The Zips are in a bit of a sandwich spot because of the tight loss to a Chippewas team that is near the top of the MAC West division. Now Akron has to try to get up for a UMASS team that does have a sneaky good offense. The Minutemen have moved the ball quite well for long stretches this season but they just don't have the lofty point totals to really show for it. These are the types of situations that create line value and, with UMASS at home here, I see significant value as they seek their first MAC win of the season. Akron's offense has been atrocious this season and will not be able to keep up with UMASS in this game. The Zips have been held to 12 points or less in 5 of their 8 games this season. The Minutemen have scored at least 23 points in 5 of their last 7 games. One of the uglier games on the board Saturday but a win is a win and I see a lot of value here. |
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11-07-15 | Duke v. North Carolina -8 | Top | 31-66 | Win | 100 | 137 h 41 m | Show |
I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA (vs Duke) as my *10 Blue Marlin Saturday @ 12:00 ET - This battle is for first place in the ACC Coastal Division as well as the Victory Bell. It is a big rivalry indeed and yet North Carolina has truly dominated as they have won 22 of the last 25 meetings. Duke is off of a crushing loss to Miami as the Blue Devils rallied late and looked like they had won the game only to have questionable multi-lateral kickoff return touchdown for the Hurricanes prove to be the deciding points. Games like that are so tough to come back from and I expect Duke to struggle here. Last year the Tar Heels annihilated the Blue Devils by a margin of 25 points and, considering the circumstances here, a similar result this year can be expected. The Tar Heels are on a 15-8 ATS run and getting fantastic QB play from Williams. North Carolina also is going for their 8th straight win overall as they've won 7 in a row since dropping their season opener this year. Laying just single digits, this play easily made my Saturday card. |
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11-06-15 | Temple v. SMU +14 | Top | 60-40 | Loss | -106 | 121 h 48 m | Show |
I am playing on SMU (vs Temple) as my *10 Main Event Friday @ 8:00 ET - The last time these two teams met was two years ago and the Mustangs won by double digits even though they were down by two touchdowns at halftime. The fact that SMU has this game at home and that Temple is off of a huge 'mega-game' against the Fighting Irish has me backing the Mustangs here. SMU is catching the Owls at the perfect time to spring the upset. SMU comes into this game off of a loss to Tulsa and the issue in that game was an inability to stop the Golden Hurricane offense. However, the Owls offense is certainly not a strength this season and it is going to prove difficult for Temple to create much separation on the scoreboard in this one. The Owls hanging tight with Notre Dame last week was certainly impacted by the fact that Temple got some red zone turnovers in that game. The Fighting Irish easily could have won by quite a margin if not for those turnovers. This 'quirky' result from last week is helping to provide additional line value this week as the Owls are a more heavily favored than they should be in what is truly a flat spot that is perfect for the fade. Take SMU and fade Temple here as it will be hard for the Owls to be focused on a 1-7 Mustangs team when they just played a 7-1 top foe. |
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11-05-15 | Nevada v. Fresno State +4.5 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 21 m | Show |
I am playing on FRESNO STATE (vs Nevada) as my *10 Main Event Thursday @ 10:30 ET - The Bulldogs are a dangerous home dog in this spot. For one thing, Nevada is in a great spot to be faded here. The Wolf Pack have gone 5-13 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, Nevada is off of a win over Hawaii and the Wolf Pack have gone 2-6 SU and ATS the last 8 times they are off of a victory over a conference foe. Fresno State is known for thriving in this role. As a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points the Bulldogs have gone 8-2 ATS. Fresno State won 7 of those 10 games outright. The Bulldogs have won each of the last two meetings between these teams by at least 18 points each time. From October 17th through November 27th this is the only home game that Fresno State has on their schedule. As a result, this one had already been circled as a must win game and the Bulldogs want to make the most of their home field edge Thursday. Look for Fresno State's fantastic history in the home dog role to add another win tonight. |
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11-05-15 | Ball State v. Western Michigan -14 | Top | 7-54 | Win | 100 | 96 h 22 m | Show |
I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (vs Ball State) as my *10 Blue Marlin Thursday @ 7:30 ET - The Broncos are poised for a blowout here. Two years ago Western Michigan lost at home against the Cardinals and they certainly haven't forgotten that game. The Broncos lost by a 3 touchdown margin to Ball State. The Cardinals truly were the much better team back in 2013 but things have definitely changed quickly in a span of just two short years and now Western Michigan can 'return the favor' of a beatdown in this one. The Broncos are favored by two touchdowns and it is absolutely an 'earned' pointspread. Ball State has one of the worst defenses in the MAC and also ranks quite low on the offensive charts as well. The Cardinals, since their season opening win over an over-matched VMI team, have had just one big game on offense the rest of this season (against Northern Illinois). In their other seven games since the season opener, Ball State has averaged just 20 points per game! That kind of performance on offense is not going to cut it against a Western Michigan team that has averaged 41 points per game in their last 6 games. In weeks 10 thru 13 of the CFB season, the Cardinals are 0-5 ATS the past two seasons. The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in games on turf this season and the Cards simply are not going to be able to keep up with Western Michigan's potent offense in this one. |
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11-04-15 | Ohio +18 v. Bowling Green | Top | 24-62 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 55 m | Show |
I am playing on OHIO UNIVERSITY (@ Bowling Green) as my *10 MAC Game of the Year Wednesday @ 8 ET - The Falcons certainly have been rolling and therefore are getting a lot of attention heading into this match-up with the Bobcats and that is helping to provide additional line value for underdog Ohio University in this one. Oftentimes the worst thing for a team that was rolling is to have a bye week. That takes away from the momentum that was being built. Look for Bowling Green to perhaps be a little sluggish in this one early and I certainly don't expect them to be firing on all cylinders right out of the gate. Also, the Bobcats are allowing just 194 passing yards per game. One of the Falcons biggest strengths is their passing attack but they not find the yardage through the air coming so easy against Ohio U. The Bobcats were off of back to back losses so, for them, the bye week was welcome. It was the first time this season that Ohio U. had lost two straight games. The past seasons, when off of back to back losses, the Bobcats have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in their next game. Neither team has played a difficult schedule this season but this is the Falcons first game this season where they've faced a team with a winning record on the year. That is worth noting because Bowling Green is 21-33 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning record. Look for this game to be much closer than many are expecting. |
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10-31-15 | Stanford v. Washington State +13.5 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 145 h 33 m | Show |
I am playing on WASHINGTON STATE (vs Stanford) as my *10 ESPN Game of the Week @ 10:30 ET Saturday - Another case of tremendous line value with a dangerous big dog on their home turf. Make no mistake about it the Washington State defense is a weakness of theirs. But when you have an offense like the Cougars do (averaging over 500 yards per game this season) you rarely are out of game and also have tremendous backdoor cover potential (if needed). Washington State is catching Stanford at a good time. It is the first road game that the Cardinal have had since late September. That can be tough on a team and Stanford is 3-7 ATS as a road favorite the last 3 years. Also, as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points, the Cardinal have gone 1-4 (20%) ATS. The Cougars are playing with some extra confidence right now as they have won three straight games. When entering a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more, Washington State is 4-1 (80%) ATS. The Cougars only two losses season came by 7 points or less and they are 'in this one' all the way Saturday night. |
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10-31-15 | Notre Dame v. Temple +10 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 142 h 15 m | Show |
I am playing on TEMPLE (vs Notre Dame) as my *10 CFB Game of the Month @ 8 ET Saturday - People not from the Philly area don't understand the level of passion the Philly fans have about certain teams. When you've had the years of subpar results that many Philadelphia pro and college teams have had it creates a disdain for some of the most successful teams across all levels. This is why people around Philly are known for hatred of the Yankees in MLB, the Cowboys in NFL, and - you guessed it - Notre Dame in College Football. With all the history of storied success for the Fighting Irish there are many fans in the area who feel that any Saturday is a good Saturday...as long as Notre Dame loses. The key point here is that Temple and all the fans are going to be sky high for this game. College Gameday is coming to Temple and the Owls are going to be more than ready. The points being offered to the undefeated Owls here are simply too high. Notre Dame gave up nearly 600 yards in their most recent game and the Fighting Irish will struggle to hold off the Owls in this one. With that said, I just don't see Notre Dame as being able to pull away in this game. The Irish are 3-7 as a road favorite the last 3 years combined. As a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, Notre Dame is a long-term 3-6 ATS. Temple is 3-0 ATS this season and 14-6 ATS the last 3 seasons combined as an underdog. As an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points the prior two seasons, the Owls went 4-1 (80%) ATS. Huge value with the hungry, big dog in this match-up. |
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10-31-15 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +7.5 | Top | 52-21 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 36 m | Show |
I am playing on KENTUCKY (vs Tennessee) as my *10 SEC Game of the Year @ 7 ET Saturday - The Volunteers are off of a tough loss at Alabama. The defeat at the hands of the Crimson Tide was the type of loss that is tough to bounce back from. The Vols have now lost 4 of their last 6 games and I simply do not see any justification for Tennessee to be installed as favorite of more than a TD in this road game at Kentucky. The Wildcats did get trounced by Mississippi State last week but the Cats were on the road and turnovers certainly had a lot to do with that final result as well. Kentucky has lost back to back games but they previously were 4-1 on the season. The Wildcats can (and should be expected to) bounceback in this spot. Kentucky has been dominated for years in their series with Tennessee but the Cats have absolutely closed the gap on the Vols in terms of talent level. These teams are much more evenly matched now and with the home field edge combined with the large point spread here, the underdog is the way to go in this one. The Wildcats have averaged nearly 300 yards per game through the air in their last 4 games and look for the Kentucky aerial attack to be the difference-maker in this match-up Saturday. |
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10-31-15 | UMass +3 v. Ball State | 10-20 | Loss | -102 | 135 h 7 m | Show | |
I am playing on UMASS (@ Ball State) as my *9 Customer Appreciation Special @ 1 PM ET Saturday - UMass blew a huge lead against an undefeated and ranked Toledo squad last week. The Minutemen actually led that game by 18 points at the half only to end up losing the game by 16. You can bet that UMass wants to make someone pay for that loss and that means Ball State could be in trouble here. The Minutemen dominated the Cardinals by a yardage edge of nearly 300 yards in their victory over Ball State last year. Knowing that UMass is not in a good mood at all here, look for the angry Minutemen to put up another show of domination against the Cardinals. There is some nice line value because of last week's unusual results as well as the fact that the Minutemen are on the road here. The Cardinals have lost 5 straight games and are struggling with their run game. Also, Ball State is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games including 5 straight ATS losses as a home fave. UMass when off of a loss, has responded by going 8-4 ATS. Look for another big cover here after last week's loss to Toledo. |
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10-31-15 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +24 | 55-30 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 10 m | Show | |
I am playing on OLD DOMINION (vs Western Kentucky) as my *8 Breakfast Club @ Noon ET Saturday - Western Kentucky, of course, is the better team here but this line is simply out of hand and quite inflated considering the situation. Last year the Hilltoppers got the win by a 15 point margin but it was a 5 point game in the fourth quarter and that game was at Western Kentucky. This match-up is at Old Dominion and in that game last year the Monarchs were actually driving for the go ahead touchdown when a 96 yard pick 6 occurred and caused a swing of 14 points on the scoreboard. The Monarchs are coming off of an ugly loss to FIU as they head into this game but the first downs were actually even in that game despite what the 41-12 final score would lead you to believe. That ugly score is helping to add even more line value for Old Dominion this week. This is a bit of a flat spot for Western Kentucky as they are off of their big game with LSU last week. The Hilltoppers certainly had that game circled on their calendars...not this one. Big value with the big dog. |
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10-30-15 | Louisiana Tech v. Rice +10.5 | 42-17 | Loss | -103 | 118 h 11 m | Show | |
I am playing on RICE (vs Louisiana Tech) as my *8 Friday Feast @ 8 ET - The home team has dominated this series. The last 3 years the home team has not only won each year...it has been a blowout each year with an average margin of victory of 34 points per game. The last time these teams met at Rice, the Owls were up by 45 points in the 4th quarter! I see extreme line value in this year's match-up with the large home dog number on the Owls. Even though Army gave Rice a tough game last week, the Owls prevailed and will carry some momentum into this week off of that victory. The Owls have failed to cover just 13 times in their last 42 games. The longterm solid ATS streak for Rice should continue here. The Bulldogs have covered just 1 of their 4 road games this season and that was a triple overtime thriller. All of Louisiana Tech's road games this season have been tight and that is what I expect here. |
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10-29-15 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 93 h 12 m | Show | |
I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA (@ Pittsburgh) as my *9 Thursday Roast @ 7 ET - Both teams are undefeated in conference play so 'something has to give' here. North Carolina has had the upper hand in recent meetings and I expect that to be the case again in this year's match-up. The Tar Heels won last year's meeting by 5 but the last time these teams met in Pittsburgh, even though UNC only won by 7, the Heels had built a 27-3 lead in that road game. The Tar Heels are fully capable of dominating again here at Pitt and, this time, they will not let up. North Carolina has been very strong on the defensive side of the ball this season as they have held 6 of their 7 opponents to 17 points or less. That solid defensive edge coupled with the fact that the Panthers are playing their 5th game in 27 days while UNC had a recent bye on the 10th of October has me grabbing the Tar Heels here. *9 Thursday Roast NORTH CAROLINA |
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10-24-15 | Washington +19 v. Stanford | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
I am playing on WASHINGTON (@ Stanford) as my *10 Best Bet on Saturday @ 10:30 PM ET - With all the questions about the quarterback position for the Huskies throughout the week, there ended up being tremendous line value offered to Washington in this match-up at Stanford. The Huskies are hungry after their tight loss to Oregon last week. Speaking of tight losses. Each of their past two meetings with Stanford have been decided by just one score as well. I feel this line has truly gotten out of hand on the Cardinal because this season they also certainly haven't shown the same stout defense they had possessed in prior years. This season the Cardinal have given up 386 yards or more in 3 of their last four games. That is simply something you would not have seen with past Stanford teams. There is additional line value here because the Cardinal beat UCLA by 3 TD's last week but Stanford was out-gained by 65 yards in that game. Washington is 8-4 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons. Stanford has some extra rest for this game but the Cardinal have gone 1-3 straight-up and against the spread the last 4 times they've played a game after 8 days of rest. I like the big points with the scrappy underdog in this one. *10 Best Bet WASHINGTON |
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10-24-15 | Utah v. USC -3 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 140 h 55 m | Show |
I am playing on USC (vs Utah) as my *10 Personal Favorite Saturday @ 7:30 ET - Big revenge spot for the Trojans as they lost on a field goal with less than ten seconds to go in last season's match-up between these clubs. The last time the teams met at Southern Cal the Trojans dominated with a win by a margin of 16 points. I look for a similar result today. USC is off of a loss by a double digit margin at Notre Dame so the Trojans do have more motivation here than just revenge for last year's defeat at the hands of the Utes. In the loss to the Fighting Irish the Trojans outgained Notre Dame by more than 100 yards and I look for them to come up big at home here and bounce back from the frustrating road defeat. The Trojans are catching Utah at a good time as the Utes are off of a big come from behind win over Arizona State last week that kept them undefeated. Utah has a bullseye on their backs right now and USC would love to be the team that puts the first blemish on their record. Even though the Utes are undefeated they have been outgained in half of their games this season and I look for a huge game from the Trojans in their first home game since Sarkisian was fired. |
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10-24-15 | Western Kentucky v. LSU -16.5 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 139 h 23 m | Show | |
I am playing on LSU (vs Western Kentucky) as my *9 Blue Marlin Saturday @ 7 PM ET - The only time these teams met was 4 years ago and the Tigers rolled the Hilltoppers by a margin of 33 points. I look for similar dominance in this match-up and that's why I am laying the big points with LSU. Western Kentucky is taking a big step up in level of competition this week. After dominating some lesser foes, the Hilltoppers will find themselves on the other end of that domination Saturday at LSU. The Tigers have a nice scheduling edge as they are playing their 4th straight home game. LSU is outgaining teams by an average of 222 yards per game in home games. This is the toughest test the Hilltoppers have on their schedule this season and Western Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as an away dog while LSU has failed to cover just twice the last nine times they were a home favorite. The Tigers are certainly a big favorite here but it absolutely is justified based on the mismatch here. SEC vs Conference USA. This one should get ugly in a hurry. The Tigers outgained the Hilltoppers by nearly 250 yards in their meeting 4 years ago. Look for a repeat here. |
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10-24-15 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-43 | Loss | -115 | 136 h 54 m | Show |
I am playing on Virginia Tech (vs Duke) as my *10 ACC Game Of Year Saturday @ 3:30 ET - The Hokies are 13-1 in the last 14 meetings in this series. Virginia Tech did get some measure of revenge last year by winning at Duke. However, the Hokies still remember what happened the last time the Blue Devils visited Blacksburg, VA. That home loss two years ago is something Virginia Tech wants to make sure doesn't happen again here. In that game the Hokies actually outgained Duke by nearly 200 yards but simply fell short on the scoreboard. While the Blue Devils come into this year's match-up off of win (huge win over Army preceded the bye) the Hokies come in very hungry. This is not only because of the home loss to Duke two years ago but also because they lost by double digits to Miami last week. Virginia Tech will be fired up in this spot and they are a great value at a low price at home for this one. Revenge time in this ACC match-up Saturday. Even though Duke has certainly enjoyed a resurgence under coach Cutcliffe, this is still a Blue Devils team with long term marks like these: 31-96 SU in road games, 38-149 SU in conference games, and 8-23 SU when off of a bye week. This one should be all Hokies. |
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10-24-15 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -8 | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 132 h 16 m | Show | |
I am playing on NEBRASKA (vs Northwestern) as my *9 Breakfast Club Saturday @ Noon ET - The Cornhuskers have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams and they blasted the Wildcats by a margin of 3 TDs in last season's game. I look for a similar result in this season's match-up as Nebraska can again dominate like they did last year when they outgained Northwestern by nearly 200 yards for the game. Look for the Huskers to ride the momentum of last week's huge win at Minnesota while the Wildcats continue reeling. Northwestern won their first two games this season but they've since gone 0-2 with the average margin of defeat 34 points. The Wildcats defense is struggling and that's bad news because the Cornhuskers certainly have the much better offense in this match-up. That said, it will be tough for Northwestern to keep up. The Huskers are averaging 451 yards per game on the season while the Wildcats have averaged just 226 yards per game in conference play. That's why this should be a blowout. |
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10-23-15 | Utah State v. San Diego State +6 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 119 h 46 m | Show |
I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs. Utah State) as my *10 Best Bet on Friday @ 10:30 PM ET - Although these teams haven't met since 2010 and some of the history is old, it's hard to ignore the fact that San Diego State has a 10-1 edge in this series history. The last time these two teams met was 5 years ago and the Aztecs gained more than double the yardage of the Aggies. I expect Utah State to struggle in this tough scheduling spot as they are off of a huge win over Boise State. That makes this a definite flat spot for the Aggies. It had been nearly 25 years since Utah State had recorded a home win over a ranked foe and they did benefit from 8 turnovers in that win over the Broncos. San Diego State is also off on upset win but it was a small upset as the Aztecs were +3 beat San Jose State. Unlike Utah State's big dog win, it also wasn't about turnovers. San Diego State simply pummeled the Spartans with a dominating yardage edge of 377 to 148. The Aztecs are in a nice situation here as a home dog and catching a road fave of a huge upset win. That makes the Aztecs a very dangerous dog in this spot. *10 Best Bet SAN DIEGO STATE Friday |
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10-22-15 | California v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 93 h 28 m | Show |
I am playing on UCLA (vs California) as my *10 Thursday Main Event - Looking at the history of this series it's been the home team that has held the upper hand as they've won 13 of the last 15 meeings with a fantastic 12-2-1 ATS mark in those 15 games. With that said, the Bruins look like the play here, on the surface, but there is certainly much more than just series history on their side. UCLA won last year's game by only two points but they actually outgained Cal by about 200 yards and so the margin of victory should have been even greater in that non-covering win. The last visit at UCLA was two years ago and the Bruins won by a 27 point margin in a dominating win. Each team comes into this game off of a loss and even though the Golden Bears are off of a bye week the Bruins are at least on normal rest since they did play last Thursday as well. That ugly result against Stanford last Thursday has UCLA fired up to come up with a huge win here on Thursday night. The Bruins have lost back to back Pac 12 games by double digit margins and I believe that will have them fired up for a huge performance here. Also, UCLA does have a strong pass defense and the Bears do get about 70% of their offense through the air so I expect this strong edge for the Bruins to be a difference-maker in this one. Once again in this series, the home team should get the job done. |
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10-22-15 | Temple v. East Carolina -2 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -106 | 91 h 27 m | Show |
I am playing on EAST CAROLINA (vs Temple) as my *10 Thursday ESPN Roast - This is a revenge game for the Pirates as they lost to the Owls last season despite outgaining them by nearly 300 yards. East Carolina had an edge in first downs of TWENTY but it was EIGHT fumbles on the day (5 of those resulting in turnovers) that ruined the day for the Pirates. A tough loss byt a 20-10 final as a 10 point favorite so revenge is definitely on order Thursday. East Carolina comes into this game off of a win over Tulsa last week. Even though the 30-17 final may not look that impressive, the Pirates were up 23-0 in the 4th quarter of that game before 'taking their foot off of the gas'. The Owls come into this game with a perfect 6-0 record on the season and actually ranked for the first time in 36 years. That is keeping this line off of where it should be and I'll grab the value with Pirates HC McNeill who has a 6-1 ATS record when seeking revenge. |
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10-20-15 | UL-Lafayette +7 v. Arkansas State | 27-37 | Loss | -112 | 44 h 29 m | Show | |
I am playing on LOUSIANA LAFAYETTE (@ Arkansas State) as my *8 Tuesday Annihilator @ 8 PM ET - We are getting some nice line value here because Arkansas State won last Tuesday's game by 18 points but that was a "fluke final" to say the least. The Red Wolves are actually trailing late in that game before exploding for a number of late touchdowns in the game. Now Arkansas State is hosing a Ragin' Cajuns team that ran all over them last season in a 55-40 win where UL Lafayette had 8 rushing touchdowns. The Rajin' Cajuns have held the upper hand in this series with 8 wins in the last 12 meetings and they've won each of the last two years by double digits. It's evident they are getting no respect in this season's match-up and I believe the odds makers have overadjusted here. Louisiana Lafayette got their offense rolling again last week against Texas State and had over 500 yards in the big victory. The Ragin' Cajuns have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are 0-4 ATS in home games with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. The Rajin' Cajuns are off of a win in their first conference game of the season and they are 8-4 ATS (and 10-2 SU) when off of a conference victory. UL Lafayette also has gone 4-0 SU and ATS in these Tuesday games the past two seasons. *8 Tuesday Annihilator LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE |
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10-17-15 | Penn State v. Ohio State -16.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 123 h 30 m | Show | |
I am playing on OHIO STATE (vs Penn State) as my 9* Blue Marlin *SPECIAL* on Saturday @ 8 PM ET - At times, through the years, this was a great rivalry. Simply put, that is just not the case anymore as Penn State continues to struggle in the "post-Paterno years" and Ohio State continues it's annual domination. With all that said, even with the big number here on the Buckeyes, I have no problem laying it. Ohio State is on a 6-3 ATS run in their last 9 games against the Nittany Lions. The Buckeyes are off of a non-covering win against Maryland last week. The Bucks did turn it on late in that game though and I believe they will capitalize on the momentum of a game-ending 28-7 run by jumping on Penn State early and often in this week's game. The Nittany Lions have won five straight games entering this week's match-up with Ohio State. However, one look at the Penn State schedule will show you that the Nittany Lions certainly have been facing powerhouse teams. That said, this week they are, and the losing resumes as they get overpowered by the Buckeyes. Remember the week one loss that PSU had to Temple? Now imagine the step up in talent between OSU and the Owls. This one gets ugly early. |
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10-17-15 | Michigan State +8 v. Michigan | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 119 h 5 m | Show | |
I am playing on Michigan State (vs Michigan) as my *10 Saturday Afternoon Main Event - Huge rivalry and the Spartans have not covered a game yet this season but you better believe this is the game they want. Michigan State has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams and has covered 7 in a row ATS. The Spartans put a huge emphasis on this game and certainly got caught looking ahead a bit when they struggled to put away Rutgers last week. We're getting a lot of line value here because the Wolverines have been on epic defensive run. Michigan actually has shutout three straight opponents. While that is certainly an impressive feat, the Wolverines are facing a much tougher opponent this week than what they've faced in their three prior games. Also, all the respect that Michigan has earned with this masterful run on defense has garnered the attention of the betting markets and is helping to drive the Wolverines price up. That has pushed the value to the other side here and I expect the highly motivated underdog Spartans to make it 8 straight covers in this series. |
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10-17-15 | Air Force v. Colorado State +2 | Top | 23-38 | Win | 100 | 118 h 29 m | Show |
I am playing on COLORADO STATE (vs Air Force) as my *10 False Favorite Game of the Year - This is a big revenge spot for the Rams as they were a TD favorite over the Falcons last year but lost outright by a field goal. Colorado State will have extra motivation as a result and the scheduling situation certainly favors the Rams as well. That's because CSU has a bye week on deck while Air Force is in a much tougher scheduling spot. The Falcons are off back to back rivalry games including last week's big win over Wyoming. Look for this win to leave Air Force a little "flat" for this game where as the Rams are fired up not only because of last week's loss to the Falcons but also because they got drilled 41-10 by Boise State last week. Now it's CSU's turn to be on the right side of a rout and the last time they faced Air Force here they won huge by a 58 to 13 margin. While the margin may not be quite so big this time around, the scheduling and motivational edges here sure do point to another big win for the Rams. |
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10-17-15 | Purdue v. Wisconsin -19.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -108 | 116 h 2 m | Show | |
I am playing on WISCONSIN (vs Purdue) as my 9* Breakfast Club on Saturday @ Noon ET - This is homecoming for Wisconsin and the Badgers seemingly made a great choice with their opponent for homecoming. Wiscy has not only won 9 straight versus Purdue, they've also covered 9 straight against the Boilermakers. Look for the Badgers to have plenty of emotion when they take the field Saturday as they still are feeling the positive effects of last week's late win at Nebraska. The game was close on the scoreboard but the Badgers did have a 25-13 edge in first downs in the match-up with the Cornhuskers. Purdue's struggles continued last week as they got hammered by Minnesota in a 41 to 13 home loss. The Boilermakers turned the ball over 4 times in the defeat and the last place they wanted to head after a loss like that is Madison. The Badgers continue their long-time domination in this series by making it 10 in a row Saturday. |
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10-16-15 | UNLV v. Fresno State +6 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 43 m | Show |
I am playing on FRESNO STATE (vs UNLV) as my *10 Friday ESPN Best Bet - This is a perfect spot to back the Bulldogs. Fresno State was embarrassed badly last week at home against Utah State. That said, the Bulldogs will be looking to take out some frustration this week after the embarrassment at the hands of the Aggies last week. Fresno State will take advantage of facing a UNLV team that is 2-4 on the season. The Rebels upset the Bulldogs last season to end Fresno State's 3 game winning streak in this series. That said it's time for a little payback Friday and the Bulldogs won the last meeting in Fresno State by 24 points. While it is true the Bulldogs have lost five straight games heading into this one, they have certainly faced a tough schedule with some tough match-ups during that stretch. 3 of the first 4 games in the 5 game losing streak were on the road. The Bulldogs, after last week's rare debacle at home, will certainly come to play on Friday night at home. Fresno State is 7-2 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points and 6 of those 7 victories against the spread were outright victories! The Bulldogs don't take the home dog role lightly. As for UNLV, the Rebels are on a 7-17 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. UNLV is certainly not used to being a favorite often in recent seasons and they are likely to struggle again in that role Friday night. As a road favorite of any size they are on a 6-11 ATS run. *10 ESPN Best Bet on FRESNO STATE Friday. |
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10-15-15 | UCLA +6.5 v. Stanford | Top | 35-56 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
I am playing on UCLA (@ Stanford) as my *10 Pac-12 Game of the Week Thursday @ 10:30 ET - Big revenge spot for the Bruins. UCLA was up 10-7 in the 2nd quarter of last season's match-up but then Stanford's defense rose the occasion and the Cardinal went on to outscore the Bruins 24 to 0 from that point forward. UCLA was nearly a TD favorite in that game and suffered the upset at the hands of Stanford. That makes this a payback spot for the Bruins as they can return the favor by getting the outright upset as a dog of nearly a full TD in this one. From a situational (and line value) perspsective, this one sets up very nicely as the Bruins are off of an ugly loss to Arizona State before their bye week while Stanford is off of a huge win over Arizona before their bye week. UCLA has covered 6 of their last 8 times as an away dog and the Cardinal defense is not as strong as it's been in prior seasons. Stanford has allowed 24 points per game in their 3 games against Pac-12 competition this season and this will be their toughest Pac-12 test yet. *10 Pac-12 Game of the Week UCLA. |
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10-15-15 | Western Kentucky v. North Texas +31.5 | Top | 55-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
I am playing on NORTH TEXAS (vs Western Kentucky) as my *10 Thursday Game of the Year @ 7:30 ET - North Texas has made a coaching change after their unacceptable and embarrassing start to the season. After the firing of head coach McCarney I look for the Mean Green to respond in a huge way and that begins tonight in a rare primetime affair that the host team is going to want to make the most of. North Texas is relishing the opportunity to take a shot at shutting down the red hot offense of the Hilltoppers. With Western Kentucky coming into this game rolling, the fired up Mean Green defense is ready to go into full "attack mode" in this one. These Conference USA foes used to face each other as SunBelt foes and the Mean Green held the upper hand having won 4 of the last 6 and going 4-1-1 ATS in those meetings. Western Kentucky enters this game off of a huge win over rival Middle Tennessee State last week so certainly the situational advantage is in favor of North Texas in a huge way this week. That was the first time the Hilltoppers had won at home against the rival Blue Raiders since 1989. It's nearly impossible for Western Kentucky not to be a little flat here after that huge win and, again, they're walking into a hornets' nest tonight as the Mean Green are fired up after the coaching change that followed them getting thoroughly embarrassed in their 66-7 homecoming game loss! *10 Thursday Game of the Year NORTH TEXAS. |
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10-15-15 | Auburn -1.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 52 m | Show |
I am playing on AUBURN (@ Kentucky) as my *10 Thursday ESPN Main Event @ 7 ET - Great value here with the Tigers bascially just needing to win the game to get the cash. Auburn has won 16 of the last 17 games between these teams. Look for another big game from RB Barber here as he had 5 TDs for Auburn in their win over San Jose State before the bye week. I also think that the way the Tigers are handling the situation with WR Duke Williams will have a positive impact on the psyche of this team. Auburn has certainly underperformed so far this season but they begin to turn the corner here now. Kentucky was fortunate to get past Eastern Kentucky in their game before the bye and they won't be so fortunate here. *10 ESPN Main Event on AUBURN. |
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10-13-15 | Arkansas State v. South Alabama +6 | 49-31 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 60 m | Show | |
I am playing on SOUTH ALABAMA (vs Arkansas State) as my 8* SunBelt Smackdown @ 8 ET Tuesday - Big revenge spot for the Jaguars as the Red Wolves have won each of the past 3 meetings between these SunBelt foes. South Alabama is beaming with confidence after their dominating win over Troy last week where their defense performed exceptionally well and held Troy to just 265 yards! The Jags now take that momentum into this match-up with another SBC foe Tuesday. Arkansas State comes into this game on a 4-10 SU (and 5-9 ATS) run in road games. Also, the Red Wolves have lost the money in five straight away games. This has led to Arkansas State suffering a pair of outright upsets in recent meetings with SBC foes and they now visit a South Alabama team that has managed to record a pair of outright upset wins in the last 3 weeks. Look for the Jaguars to get the job done once again here in what is a beautiful home dog spot for South Alabama. |
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10-10-15 | Colorado v. Arizona State -15 | Top | 23-48 | Win | 100 | 146 h 5 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA STATE (vs Colorado) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Saturday @ 10 PM ET - Arizona State has won six straight in this series and the Sun Devils have gone 5-1 ATS in the process. Though the spread on Saturday's game may seem a bit high at first glance, those six wins came by an average margin of 27 points per game. Another blowout should be on tap for Saturday as well. Colorado was able to hang with Oregon in the first half last week but the way they got blown out in the second half is a sign of things to come here this week. Arizona State is coming off of a blowout win over UCLA and they will carry momentum from that victory (by a double digit margin as a double digit dog) right into this week's game. What the Sun Devils did against the Bruins run game last week was ultra impressive and shows just how much the ASU defense has already progressed early this season. Colorado is on a 13-32 ATS run as an away dog and I look for them to falter in that role again this week. ASU should roll big here. |
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10-10-15 | Michigan State -16.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 144 h 17 m | Show |
I am playing on MICHIGAN STATE (@ Rutgers) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Saturday @ 8 PM ET - Big points to lay here with the Spartans but they're absolutely worth it. After letting Purdue come back last week - and only winning the game by a margin of 3 points - Michigan State learned their lesson. They need to battle hard all the way through. Just like they did the last time they faced Rutgers. That was last year and the Spartans rolled the Scarlet Knights by 42 points. Another huge victory over Rutgers should be expected here. Even though the Knights are 2-2 on the season they beat an FCS team and a very bad Kansas team. As for their other two games this season, Rutgers was outgained badly. The point is that the Scarlet Knights, and especially their subpar defense, are likely to get torched here as they take a major step up in class to face the Spartans. Even though Michigan State is 0-5 ATS this year (which actually makes for for extra line value here) the Spartans are on a 17-5 ATS runs as an away favorite and I look for them to again dominate in that role on Saturday. |
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10-10-15 | Oklahoma State +7 v. West Virginia | Top | 33-26 | Win | 100 | 143 h 13 m | Show |
I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE (@ West Virginia) as my *10 Big 12 Game of the Year on Saturday @ 7 PM ET - West Virginia has won each of the last two meetings between these teams so this is a double revenge spot for Oklahoma State and I expect the Cowboys to make the most of it. This is a great spot to fade the Mountaineers as they are still reeling from the beating they took last week at the hands of Oklahoma. West Virginia was down by 17 by halftime and never was able to fully compete with the Sooners in the eventual loss by a margin of 20 points. That said, the Mountaineers are being overvalued in this match-up in my opinion. The Cowboys are undefeated on the season and their aerial attack was dominant last week and they now face a Mountaineers defensive unit that allowed 320 yards through the air last week. Also, from a scheduling perspective it's a big edge for the Cowboys here as West Virginia is off of the big game with Oklahoma and the Mountaineers have Baylor on deck. Oklahoma State is in a much better position as they have a bye on deck. Sealing the deal for me is the fact that the Mountaineers are just 7-13 ATS in their last 20 as a home favorite. Combining that with the significant points being offered to the Cowboys here and this is the perfect spot for a big play on Oklahoma State. |
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10-10-15 | Rice +3 v. Florida Atlantic | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 139 h 38 m | Show | |
I am playing on RICE (@ Florida Atlantic) as my *9 False Favorite Special on Saturday @ 2:30 PM ET - Rice was embarrassed by Western Kentucky last week and I look for a huge response this week. Florida Atlantic was defeated by Rice in the most recent (and only) time they've met which was recent (2013). Rice should get the job done again here even though they are on the road. Rice is 7-3 ATS away from home in Conference USA action. Even though Florida Atlantic is off of a bye I certainly was not impressed with how they were playing before the bye. Even though they played Charlotte (a team just now getting acclimated to this level of football), Florida Atlantic managed only 184 yards of offense and 13 first downs in their game the week before their bye. Florida Atlantic will undoubtedly have their hands full this week with an angry Rice team. In this battle of the Owls, Rice is the play. |
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10-10-15 | Middle Tennessee State +10 v. Western Kentucky | 28-58 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 14 m | Show | |
I am playing on MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (@ Western Kentucky) as my *9 Breakfast Club on Saturday @ Noon ET - Those not from this area of the country don't realize just how big of a rivalry this game is and, the fact is, too many points are being offered to the Blue Raiders here. Middle Tennessee State has won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these teams and now they're being offered huge points in this match-up. Certainly one can argue that Western Kentucky is the better team and that the big line is justified but the fact remains it is tough to get a big margin going in a rivalry game like this. That is particularly true when the team you are facing has been a nemesis that has defeated you in 7 of the last 9 meetings. Even though the Blue Raiders are on the road in this one, the visitor has won 5 of the last 7 meetings and the visitor is on a 4-2 ATS run in the series. Western Kentucky is off of a blowout win but their defense is still questionable and I was impressed with the defense of Middle Tennessee State in their hard fought battle with an SEC foe, Vanderbilt, last week. The Blue Raiders actually led the Commodores 13-3 in the 4th quarter of that game. Additionally, heading into this game, Middle Tennessee is on an overall 4-1 ATS run as a visitor and last year's game was decided by just a field goal in overtime. Look for another tight one this year. |
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10-10-15 | Oklahoma v. Texas +16.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 136 h 15 m | Show |
I am playing on TEXAS (vs Oklahoma) as my *10 Rivalry GOW on Saturday @ Noon ET - In last year's Red River Rivalry the Longhorns lost despite having edges of 250 more yards and 13 more first downs than the Sooners. Texas was done in by a kickoff return for a TD and an interception returned for a TD. Of course the Horns have huge motivation here after the way they lost last season's game. That said, even though Texas has played poorly recently, these rivalry games are an entirely different "breed" of game. I expect a huge effort from the Longhorns to keep them easily within the large points being offered here. UT is off of an embarrassing effort against TCU but they catch Oklahoma off of a huge win over West Virginia. That makes for great line value here and the Longhorns haven't started a season 1-5 in nearly 60 years. Texas will scratch and claw and do everything they need to do to stay in this rivarly game. The Horns have covered 6 of the last 9 in this series while, overall, Oklahoma is on a 6-11 ATS run as a conference favorite. Huge value to the Horns in this one with the big number. |
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10-09-15 | NC State v. Virginia Tech -1.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 120 h 22 m | Show |
I am playing on VIRGINIA TECH (vs NC State) as my *10 Friday Main Event @ 8 PM ET Friday - Virginia Tech has won three straight in this series including the most recent meeting which featured a double digit win back in 2010. The Hokies home crowd is typically in full force in these primetime weeknight games and I look for them to be 'loud and proud' on Friday night. That said, the Wolf Pack will be battling two key elements tonight. They will have to deal with crowd noise plus the stellar defense of Virginia Tech. The Hokies have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 276 yards or less. The Wolf Pack, on the other hand, have faced a very weak schedule and I expect their defense to be fully exposed tonight. The Hokies are off of a weak performance on offense but that was preceded by Virginia Tech gaining at least 439 yards in each of their three prior games. In fact, the Hokies amassed nearly 600 yards of offense in one of those games. This is a key ACC battle for these teams and the home field edge and the crowd noise will go a long way for the Hokies. Virginia Tech has lost two straight but, in the past two seasons, they have gone 3-1 SU when they're off two or more consecutive straight-up losses. NC State is on a 3-14 straight-up run in conference games and they are 0-7 straight-up in the month of October the past two years. |
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10-09-15 | Southern Miss v. Marshall -6.5 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 119 h 20 m | Show | |
I am playing on MARSHALL (vs Southern Mississippi) as my *9 Friday Feast @ 7 PM ET Friday - The Thundering Herd have won the last 3 match-ups with the Golden Eagles by a combined score of 183 to 54. Talk about domination! Now, on Friday, Marshall is laying a small number against Southern Mississippi. A lot of this has to do with Southern Miss being 5-0 ATS on the season. The key here is that the Golden Eagles have played a soft schedule so far this season. That has certainly played a role in their 5-0 ATS start. That said, the value now lies with the short home favorite who has proven time and time again that they are completely capable of dominating this conference foe. I look for them to do just that again on Friday night. Look for the Thundering Herd to improve to 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Southern Miss while handing the 5-0 ATS Golden Eagles their first ATS loss of the season. Big value play here on the small home favorite. |
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10-03-15 | Vanderbilt v. Middle Tennessee State -3.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 20 m | Show |
I am playing on Middle Tenn. State (vs Vanderbilt) as my *10 Personal Favorite @ 7 ET Saturday - Vanderbilt is off of an SEC loss as they fell short against Mississippi last week even though they were in the perfect spot to take advantage and pull off a huge upset. That's because the Commodores were catching the Rebels off of their big win over Alabama. Unable to take advantage of the flat spot for Ole Miss, Vandy is now in a flast spot themselves. Off of the big game versus an SEC foe and with a bye week and another SEC foe, South Carolina, on deck this is a tough spot for Vanderbilt. The Commodores are facing a Middle Tennessee State that is much hungrier than they are. The Blue Raiders look at this as a chance to make some noise with a big win over an SEC foe. Middle Tennesee has won 12 of their last 14 home games and gone 9-5 ATS in those games. Look for the Blue Raiders to take advantage of a Vandy team that has lost 6 straight road games and that has lost 6 of their last 9 games against non-SEC foes. Motivation is huge in sports and this is a classic case where only one team has it. |
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10-03-15 | Arkansas +7.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 139 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on Arkansas (@ Tennessee) as my *10 Game of the Week @ 7 ET Saturday - After blowing a late lead of two touchdowns against Florida last week this is a brutally tough spot for the Volunteers. It is just simply very tough to bounce back from a game like that and Tennessee is struggling with the fact that they can not close out games. With that said, this is a nice underdog situation to grab a team that should be 'right there' with Tennessee all the way. In fact, Arkansas has a great shot at the upset here and they also have great backdoor cover potential. So, no matter how you look at it, this is one of those value spots for a dangerous underdog. The big problem for Tennessee is the aerial attack as they can't seem to get anything consistent going in terms of getting the ball downfield to their receivers on longer patterns. This is going to allow the Razorbacks to stack the box to defend against the run and I just do not see the Volunteers being able to win big here based on the current struggles in the passing game. While Arkansas also lost a tough one last week (in OT to Texas A & M) they have the much better passing attack and their run defense also has been solid this season. That is the key to the Razorbacks giving the Volunteers all they can handle in this one! |
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10-03-15 | Western Kentucky v. Rice +7.5 | Top | 49-10 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 47 m | Show |
I am playing on Rice (vs Western Kentucky) as my *10 Conference USA Game of the Year @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Rice is off a crushing loss and will be looking to bounce back after getting hammered 70 to 17 by Baylor. Western Kentucky is certainly no Baylor and I feel this line is quite inflated. The Hilltoppers are off of a huge win last week by a 56-14 final but that came against an outclassed MAC foe as Miami-Ohio's struggles continued. Rice is happy to be home here but the fact they have played 3 straight road games hasn't fazed the Owls as all three games were in-state road games. Before last week's struggles against the powerful Bears, the Owls were avaraging over 500 yards of offense per game this season. The Hilltoppers defense is a glaring weakness and yet they may be overconfident this week after the annihilation of the RedHawks. That sets this up perfectly for being a great spot for the Owls to bounce back at home and immediately get back on track after the ugly loss to Baylor. Before the crushing loss to Baylor, the Owls had taken an ATS loss just 2 times in their past 13 games. Look for Rice to immediately resume the winning for their backers in this prime value spot. |
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10-03-15 | Purdue v. Michigan State -23.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 21 m | Show | |
I am playing on Michigan State (vs Purdue) as my *9 Breakfast Club at Noon ET on Saturday - Look for the Spartans to blast Purdue. Michigan State has won six straight games in this series and they beat the Boilermakers by two TDs last season and the edges are even bigger this season. Purdue is coming off of a home loss to a MAC team as Bowling Green put up over 500 yards of offense against the Boilermakers last week. Purdue is still winless against FBS team this season. The Boilermakers only win came against 'lower tiered' Indiana State. In Purdue's other three games they were torched for an average of 42 points per game. Look for the Boilermakers porous defense to prove unable to stop Michigan State here. The Spartans are 8-4 ATS in Big Ten openers while the Boilermakers have failed to cover their Big Ten opener each of the last three seasons. |
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09-26-15 | USC v. Arizona State +6 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -106 | 140 h 24 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA STATE (vs. USC) as my 10* Best Bet on Saturday. |
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09-26-15 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +7 | 28-21 | Push | 0 | 137 h 49 m | Show | |
I am playing on ARKANSAS (vs. Texas A&M) as my 10* SEC Best Of Best play for Saturday - game goes at 7 ET. |
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09-26-15 | Tennessee v. Florida -2 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -106 | 134 h 33 m | Show |
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09-26-15 | BYU v. Michigan -4.5 | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 130 h 13 m | Show | |
I am playing on MICHIGAN (vs. BYU) for my 9* Breakfast Club play on Saturday @ Noon ET. Michigan racked up 225 yards against Oregon State two weeks ago and 254 yards last week against UNLV. BYU allows 162 yards per game on the ground this season and I think winning the ground battle will be a huge factor in helping Michigan cover on Saturday. |
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09-25-15 | Stanford v. Oregon State +15.5 | 42-24 | Loss | -106 | 116 h 21 m | Show | |
I am playing on Oregon State (vs. Stanford) Friday night in my 9* Friday Feast play. |
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09-19-15 | Texas Tech v. Arkansas -9 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 56 m | Show |
I am playing on ARKANSAS (vs. Texas Tech) as my 10* Personal Favorite play on Saturday. |
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09-19-15 | Colorado v. Colorado State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 146 h 56 m | Show |
I am playing on COLORADO STATE (vs. Colorado) as my 10* Rivalry Best of Best play on Saturday. |
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09-19-15 | Temple v. UMass +11.5 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 142 h 47 m | Show |
I am playing on UMASS (vs. Temple) as my Early Best Bet on Saturday. At first this game may look like a no brainer with Temple starting the season with two wins and covered spreads while UMass got smoked in its season opener. But I believe oddsmakers have made a mistake in giving the Minutemen so many points at home here and I am looking to take advantage. The Owls had the benefit of being slated as nearly touchdown underdogs in their first two games but now I think oddsmakers are going the other way by overvaluing them. A big red flag that stands out for me with Temple is that the Owls lost the yardage battle by 261 yards last week in a 34-26 win over Cincinnati. That suggests they were outplayed but still managed the win. Temple was especially outplayed with the passing game last week where they lost that battle by a staggering 346 yards. That's where I feel UMass can really take advantage with senior QB Blake Frohnapfel, who threw for a respectable 225 yards last week and one TD against one INT and UMass actually won the yardage game through the air against Colorado by 82 yards. I'm not sure the Minutemen will win this one, but I think they keep it close with their passing game with home field advantage and I am happily taking the mountain of points. |
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09-19-15 | Illinois v. North Carolina -7.5 | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 139 h 48 m | Show | |
I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA (vs. Illinois) as my 9* Breakfast Club play on Saturday. |
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09-17-15 | Clemson v. Louisville +3.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 98 h 18 m | Show | |
I am playing on LOUISVILLE (vs. Clemson) as my 9* Thursday Night ESPN Main Event play. |
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09-12-15 | Oregon v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
At 8 ET Saturday, I’m playing on MICHIGAN STATE (vs Oregon) as my 10* Main Event. Michigan State returns 14 starters from a solid team last year and I think Sparty will get revenge at home following a 46-27 loss to the Ducks last season. I’m playing on MICHIGAN STATE as my 10* Main Event Saturday. |
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09-12-15 | Rice v. Texas -15.5 | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -106 | 95 h 3 m | Show |
At 8 ET Saturday, I’m playing on TEXAS (vs Rice) as my 10* Personal Favorite. After Texas got hammered 38-3 by Notre Dame on Saturday, I think we are seeing a much more favorable line this week against Rice than we would have if Texas had kept that one close. I believe it's a good time to jump on the Longhorns because they are not wasting any time in making changes to improve. I’m playing on TEXAS as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday. |
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09-12-15 | Marshall v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 ET Saturday, I’m playing on OHIO U. (vs Marshall) as my 10* Best Bet. I was surprised to see Ohio open as an underdog for this game and then more surprised to see bettors fading the Bobcats through the week with their action at sports books. I'll be fading the early public action on this one in a game where I feel Ohio is the better team and playing on home turf, so I'll happily take the points. I’m playing on OHIO U. as my 10* Best Bet Saturday. |
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09-12-15 | Oregon State v. Michigan -14.5 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 89 h 36 m | Show | |
At Noon ET Saturday, I’m playing on MICHIGAN (vs Oregon State) as my 9* Breakfast Club. Michigan had a bit of a rocky start in Utah last Thursday on the opening day of the college football season in a 24-17 loss, but I expect them to bounce back this week. The Big House should provide a huge home edge for Michigan in what will be the first home game with Jim Harbaugh as head coach. The deafening crowd won't do any favors to a young and inexperienced Oregon State squad that is starting a true freshman QB in Seth Collins. Collins and the Beavers had the luxury of starting the season at home against FCS Weber State, but they couldn't cover the spread in a 26-7 win and Collins went just 10-for-18 for 92 yards through the air. Collins managed to run for 152 yards but I'm not sure he's going to be able to get away with leaning on his legs like that against what should be a tough Michigan defenseon Saturday. Turnovers were really what killed the Wolverines in Week 1 and I think they can clean that up against a team that is much worse than the Utah squad they played last week. I think we'll see a tidier performance from Michigan and I'm predicting the Beavers will stumble on the road with this early game time at the Big House. I’m playing on MICHIGAN as my 9* Breakfast Club Saturday. |
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09-10-15 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 27 m | Show | |
At 8 p.m. ET Thursday night, I am playing on LOUISIANA TECH (at Western Kentucky) as my 8* Main Event play. |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +11 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -106 | 237 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:00 ET Monday, I’m playing on VIRGINIA TECH (vs. Ohio State) as my 10* Main Event. Virginia Tech is once again standing in the way of the Ohio State Buckeyes, having dealt the defending national champs their only blemish in 2014. The Hokies, who were 10-point underdogs when they won 35-21 last fall, are now two-touchdown pups in what many are calling a revenge game for the Buckeyes. That group think has inflated this spread and will likely continue to do so as the weekend progresses, opening up serious value with Virginia Tech. While some are counting on Urban Meyer to erase last year’s loss, we see that stunner as giving the Hokies a massive boost in confidence, having beaten the national champ and holding a physiological edge in the rematch. Frank Beamer always has his defense drum tight, with eight of his 16 returning starters coming back for a stop unit that allowed just over 20 points on 343.8 yards per game. Ohio State enters this game with some turmoil, having lost WR Noah Brown for the season to injury and playing without suspended WR Corey Smith and RBs Jalin Marshall and Dontre Wilson. The Buckeyes are loaded – let’s not get that wrong – but they could be treading down the path of Florida State, which busted bankrolls week after week as the defending national champs, unable to meet the oddsmakers’ lofty expectations. I’m playing on Virginia Tech as my 10* Main Event Monday. |
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09-06-15 | Purdue v. Marshall -7 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
At 3:00 ET Sunday, I’m playing on MARSHALL (vs. Purdue) as my 10* Roast. |
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09-05-15 | Wisconsin v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 189 h 43 m | Show |
I’m playing on Alabama as my 10* Game of the Month. |
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09-05-15 | BYU v. Nebraska -6 | 33-28 | Loss | -112 | 184 h 15 m | Show | |
I am playing on NEBRASKA. This game will be played in front of a national TV audience and you can bet Nebraska’s 341st consecutive sellout crowd will give their Huskers a huge home edge against visiting BYU on Saturday. You know newcomer Mike Riley wants to make a splash in his debut as head coach and I expect him to do it with a team that returns 16 starters from a squad that went 9-4 last year. Nebraska has won its opening game in 29 straight seasons, which is a streak that leads the nation and if I were an oddsmaker, I’d be making the Cornhuskers lay more points here. Riley’s offenses typically can throw different looks at you and feature big flashes of talent and that hurt you in a hurry. With quarterback Tommy Armstrong back at the helm, I think we’ll be seeing the home team piled up some points here and it will be a matter of BYU trying to keep up. Even though these two teams have never met, the Cougars are 3-7 against the Big Ten in their history and I think that trend continues on Saturday. 9* Afternoon Annihilator |
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09-05-15 | Penn State v. Temple +7 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 184 h 14 m | Show |
I am playing on TEMPLE. Last year’s 30-13 game was much closer than the score indicated and I think this year Temple gives Penn State a scare and keeps this game very close. The Owls return most of their starters from a team last year that made huge strides and kept things to a score of 6-3 at the half at Beaver Stadium. The Owls finished the season with a .500 record and they made for a respectable bet down the final stretch of the season at 3-2 against the spread. Temple needs to find a way to stall Penn State’s rushing game, which racked up over 250 yards in last year’s meeting and I think we’ll see that happen with all 11 starters returning from what was a top 20 defense last season. The Owls also return seven players on the offensive line with starting experience, so I expect to see a much better passing game from quarterback P.J. Walker this season. I think Penn State will be a little surprised in this matchup and I like the home side getting the points here. 10* Afternoon Best Bet |
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09-04-15 | Baylor v. SMU +37 | 56-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
BAYLOR at SOUTHERN METHODIST |
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09-04-15 | Colorado -7 v. Hawaii | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -115 | 146 h 47 m | Show |
I am playing on COLORADO. This marks my first 10-star play of the college football season and I think the Buffaloes get the job done against an inferior Hawaii team. The Buffaloes have had a bit of a rough go since moving to the Pac-12 in 2011 but I think they will jump out to great start to the season, thanks mostly to the offense. Junior quarterback Sefo Liufau returns (28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions in 2014) along with his favorite receiver Nelson Spruce, who finished tops in the Pac-12 in receptions last year. I also feel the run game should be stronger this year after a bit of a disappointing season last year. Jim Leavitt is the new D coordinator and that should help a defense that pretty much can't get worse than 2014. It will help starting against a Mountain West opponent that many are predicting to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West Conference this season. Hawaii also failed to cover the spread in its final 10 games last year (0-8-1 ATS) and I don't even think home field can help the Warriors here. 10* Friday Feast |
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09-03-15 | Ohio v. Idaho +9 | 45-28 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 41 m | Show | |
I am playing on IDAHO. I think we'll see an improved Vandals team in the third year of coach Paul Petrino's tenure and I believe they are getting far too many points at home in their season opener which they may even win outright. This young Idaho team struggled on the defensive side of the ball most of all last year but with another season under its belt, I'm expecting more this season. A sizable defensive line returns three players and four of the top five linebackers also return, so I'm expecting the Vandals to be more stingy. The offense also returns four players with starting experience, which I believe means sophomore quarterback Matt Linehan will make fewer mistakes and grab more touchdowns - especially with the return of Dezmon Epps, who missed last year due to suspension, but had 971 yards receiving in 2013. Put it all together and I think we'll see a much improved Idaho team this year that's getting a pile of points against a MAC opponent. 9* Opening Night Best Bet |
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09-03-15 | Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt | 14-12 | Loss | -106 | 141 h 50 m | Show | |
I am playing on VANDERBILT. The Hilltoppers are in tough for the opening game of the season and even though Vanderbilt is often at the bottom of the SEC pile, this is still a road SEC game for WKU and I don't see them winning it. The Hilltoppers just learned their game got a lot tougher on Monday when it was announced starting junior running back Anthony "Ace" Wales is out indefinitely with an undisclosed injury. Wales had 1,542 yards and 13 touchdowns last season and will be sorely missed. Vandy closed out last season on a 6-3 against the spread streak and the Commodores are 4-0 against the number in their last four against C-USA. I think this makes for a good matchup in Vandy’s opener that will get coach Derek Mason’s team off to a solid start after a tough 3-9 season last year. Mason needs it in his second year as head coach to get things rolling in the right direction before the daunting SEC schedule begins. 9* Opening Night Personal Favorite |
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01-03-15 | East Carolina +7 v. Florida | 20-28 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
I’m playing on the East Carolina Pirates as my 9* Breakfast Club. East Carolina can make a huge splash with a win over a big-name program like Florida in bowl season, and this Pirates team smells blood in the water heading into the Birmingham Bowl Saturday afternoon. Oddsmakers, however, are still giving the Gators credit coming from the SEC, which has turned out mix results this postseason. Florida hands the headset to defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin for this bowl game, even though Durkin will be canned once the whistle blows on the fourth quarter. New Gators head coach Jim McElwain is bringing in his guys, including former Mississippi State defensive coordinator Geoff Collins, so Durkin has little motivation to impress his new boss and has been busy prepping his resume – not his team. On top of all that sideline drama, Florida suspended two key players this postseason, losing kick return specialist Andre Debose and starting nose tackle Darious Cummings. The Gators QB Treon Harris was also in hot water, caught driving without a license, however, he is expected to play Saturday. East Carolina is not to be taken lightly. The Pirates have one of the best passing attacks in college football, striking for 367.3 yards through the air per game – third most in the FBS. Quarterback Shane Carden has 28 touchdowns to just eight interceptions, completing 65 percent of his passes. He has a go-to guy in WR Justin Hardy and has five receivers with three or more touchdown catches on the year, so it will be tough for Florida to key in on just one target. The Gators’ internal issues and a powerful Pirates passing game is why I’m playing on East Carolina as my 9* Breakfast Club Saturday. |
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01-02-15 | UCLA -1.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 40-35 | Win | 100 | 88 h 29 m | Show |
I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Bowl Game of the year Friday. |
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01-01-15 | Wisconsin +7 v. Auburn | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 65 h 14 m | Show | |
I’m playing on the Wisconsin Badgers as my 9* Breakfast Club Thursday. The Badgers have had a bad taste in their mouths for almost a month since getting stunned 59-0 by Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. They're chomping at the bit to erase that embarrassing loss in the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day. Wisconsin, despite that one-sided loss to OSU, is among the defensive elite in the FBS, allowing just 283.2 yards a game. The Badgers have allowed an average of just 20 points on those gains and are getting back to business against an explosive Auburn attack. The Tigers have had their issues as well, but those are more deep rooted. Auburn watched Alabama put up 55 points in the Iron Bowl and has been gashed for big scores this season. It allowed 41 points in a loss to Texas A&M, 38 to Mississippi State, and 35 to South Carolina just to single out a few poor defensive showings. Those outings eventually cost defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson his job. The Tigers hired former Florida head coach Will Muschamp as the new DC but he won’t take the reins until after the bowl game. It won’t change how this stop unit has performed, especially against a power-rushing game like Wisconsin. The Badgers can bully the Tigers with a run game ranked fourth in the country, picking up an average of 314 yards per contest. Wisconsin will be able to control the pace of the game - ranked seventh in average time of possession at 33:33 - and keep Auburn’s potent scoring attack on the sidelines. The Tigers are already without leading WR Duke Williams, who was suspended for a violation of team rules. The Badgers' hunger to erase their last game and their ability to control the pace of this matchup is why I’m playing on Wisconsin as my 9* Breakfast Club Thursday. |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -7 | Top | 49-34 | Loss | -100 | 462 h 23 m | Show |
I am playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen said if his team could pick its bowl prior to the season, the Orange Bowl would’ve been their No. 1 choice and I think we’re going to see the best effort of the season from Mississippi State in Miami. |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss +3 v. TCU | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -100 | 455 h 16 m | Show |
I am playing on OLE MISS. I know a lot of folks are paying attention to the fireworks offense of TCU but there are a lot of reasons I like the Rebels in this one. |
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12-30-14 | Maryland +14 v. Stanford | 21-45 | Loss | -109 | 441 h 30 m | Show | |
I am playing on MARYLAND. This is the biggest spread of this year’s college football bowl season and I was a little surprised when I first saw this line. I played on Stanford several times this season and tracked the Cardinal closely but I just don’t think they are good enough to be laying around two touchdowns to a Power 5 team in a bowl game. Stanford relied almost entirely on defense to win games this year and I’m not sure they’ll be able to score enough points to run it up on Maryland. The Terps are a scrappy team that doesn’t mind getting into a defensive battle if it has to like the Terps did in wins over Michigan and Penn State this year. Sophomore cornerback Will Likely may be the team’s best player after leading the Big Ten with six touchdowns this season. He is also a game-changing special teams player who returned a punt for 69 yards for a TD against West Virginia and he averaged 28 yards per kick return. Maryland closed out the regular season with a disappointing 41-38 loss to Rutgers but the good news is the Terps know how to bounce back. Maryland is 6-0 against the spread in its last six games following a loss and with the steep number of points the Terps are getting in the Foster Farms Bowl, I like them to keep that trend going. 9* |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame +8 v. LSU | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 435 h 40 m | Show |
I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I like the Irish here largely because they’ve decided to change up their game plan, a much needed move after they lost their last four games to close out the regular season. Coach Brian Kelly announced he’ll be playing both Everett Golson and Malik Zaire at QB in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Golson was the starter for all 12 games this year and is no doubt a talented QB, but he became a turnover machine and coughed the ball up 22 times season including eight lost fumbles. That’s just way too often to be handing the ball over to the opposition and many of those decisions came from poor decision making with Golson trying to manufacture too much under pressure or on broken plays. Zaire brings an added rushing threat and that’s good because the Irish will need to find ways to keep an LSU defense guessing. LSU ranks eighth this season in total defense. The Tigers don’t, however, have a fabulous offense and that’s another big reason I think Notre Dame can keep this one close. The Tigers rely almost completely on running the football and own the 114th ranked passing attack in the nation. Notre Dame doesn’t have the best defense in the country but if it can focus on one dimension, the Irish can load the box and slow LSU enough to cover the spread. The Domers possess an opportunistic secondary and they picked off 16 passes this year and may be able to get a couple more if LSU starts forcing throws. I don’t expect this one to be the prettiest of bowl games and in those cases I tend to really like the underdog and that’s no different here, especially with the number of points Notre Dame is getting. 10* Music City Bowl Best Bet |
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12-27-14 | Nebraska +7 v. USC | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 368 h 60 m | Show |
I am playing on NEBRASKA. I think the Cornhuskers are getting a few extra points here because their coach, Bo Pelini, was fired at the end of the year. But I see two pretty evenly matched squads here and I think that storyline is a little overvalued so I’m taking the points. Nebraska will turn to Barney Cotton in the interim to coach the team before Mike Riley takes over after leaving Oregon State to take the job. Cotton has been coaching with the team for eight years and was previously an offensive lineman there and I think he’ll have this team inspired to beat USC. It wasn’t a graceful split between Pelini and Nebraska and several players spoke out in support of their coach on social media. I believe they’ll be determined to finish the year with a win as Pelini’s team. The Huskers have a versatile QB in Tommy Armstrong Jr., whom I feel will give USC fits. The Trojans suffered their worst loss of the season against UCLA’s Brett Hundley, a dual-threat QB who threw for three TDs and rushed for another against USC. Armstrong passed for 2,314 yards and 19 touchdowns this year and rushed for 664 yards and five more TDs and led Nebraska to being the No. 13 scoring offense in the nation this year. USC can score too but what I like that the strength of the USC offense - it’s passing game - will go up against the strength of Nebraska’s defense. USC has the 15th best passing attack in the nation but Nebraska owns the third-best passing efficiency defense in the country. I believe oddsmakers have set this one too high and it’s definitely possible that the Huskers could win this game in their third trip to the Holiday Bowl since 2009. 10* Saturday Main Event |
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12-27-14 | Duke v. Arizona State -7 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -115 | 231 h 22 m | Show |
I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Sun Devils own the higher scoring offense, they have a much shorter trip to the Sun Bowl, they play in the better conference and they’ll have the best playmaker on the field for this game. |
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12-26-14 | North Carolina State +2 v. Central Florida | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 358 h 45 m | Show |
I am going with the better quarterback in this game and in this case it also happens to be one of the best in the nation in Jacoby Brissett for the Wolfpack. Brissett is one of three quarterbacks in the nation with 20 or more passing touchdowns, 300 or more rushing yards and five interceptions or fewer. The junior also ran for three touchdowns and I think his dual threat ability will keep this UCF defense on its heels. The Pack finished the season with three wins over their final four games and they lined bettors' pockets with four covers over their last five games. They allowed just 20 points combined in their final two games, both wins, and won the yardage battles in both those games by over 200 yards. For UCF, this bowl game isn't just a step down from the Fiesta Bowl it played in and won last year, it's a whole flight of stairs down, and you have to wonder a little about the motivational factor. I can't help but think the Knights already reached the apex of their season when they beat ECU on a now infamous last-second Hail Mary to claim a share of the AAC title. NC State has shown flashes of brilliance this year – like owning a 24-7 lead over Florida State before ultimately losing that game – and I think we’ll see more of that Wolfpack team the day after Christmas in the Bitcoin St. Pete’s Bowl. 10* Best Bet |
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12-26-14 | Illinois +6 v. Louisiana Tech | 18-35 | Loss | -105 | 353 h 23 m | Show | |
I am playing on ILLINOIS. Illinois is a team that played its best football of the season down the final stretch after having a difficult start to the season, a combination that makes the Illinis a strong play as an underestimated team by oddsmakers. |
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12-24-14 | Central Michigan +3 v. Western Kentucky | 48-49 | Win | 100 | 304 h 30 m | Show | |
I am playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. While Western Kentucky has some formidable numbers on offense, I often look to defense when bowl season rolls around. And when looking at the Hilltoppers’ defense, it doesn’t get much worse than this. I like Central Michigan to take the first ever Bahamas Bowl. 9* Breakfast Club |
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12-23-14 | Northern Illinois v. Marshall -10 | 23-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
I’m playing on the Marshall Thundering Herd as my 9* Main Event Tuesday. Marshall looks to cap off an incredible season with a big win over Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl. The Thundering Herd have a balanced team that can impose its will on both sides of the football. Marshall rolled over opponents with an average of 275.6 rushing yards per game and have one of the best one-two punches on the ground. Leading rusher Devon Johnson, who rushed for more than 1,600 yards and 18 touchdowns, has had time to heal up from a shoulder injury that slowed him down at the end of the season, and has a capable backup in Steward Butler. The Herd picked up 6.6 yards per carry, which ranks third most in the country. If dealing with those two work horses isn’t enough, Marshall has a dynamic dual-threat under center. Quarterback Rakeem Cato is a handful on his own, throwing for 37 touchdowns and adding another six scores on the ground. The senior playmaker tacked on 457 yards rushing this season and is able to move the chains when plays break down. He’ll give an aggressive NIU defense fits when they try to bring pressure. Defensively, Marshall is a bit underrated and that’s where the real value lies with the line. The Thundering Herd locked down opponents to just 20.8 points on 351.8 yards per game. Marshall stymied opposing runners to only 4.0 yards per carry and will slow down a NIU attack that relies heavily on the run. The Herd will be able to jump out to a quick lead and force the Huskies to pass the ball, taking NIU out of its comfort zone. A balanced Thundering Herd offense and a defense that should get more credit is why I’m playing on Marshall as my 9* Main Event Tuesday. |
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12-22-14 | BYU v. Memphis -1 | 48-55 | Win | 100 | 259 h 35 m | Show | |
I am playing on MEMPHIS. The Tigers finished the season with bang, reeling off six straight wins to claim a piece of the AAC conference title. I believe they’ll make it a seventh straight against a BYU team that’s traveling a long way for the inaugural Miami Beach Bowl. |
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12-20-14 | South Alabama v. Bowling Green +2.5 | 28-33 | Win | 107 | 218 h 60 m | Show | |
I am taking BOWLING GREEN. This play is a little more about what South Alabama doesn’t have going for it, rather than what Bowling Green does have. That’s because both teams struggled down the final stretch but USA did a little more with four losses over the team’s last five games. The Jaguars failed to score more than 12 points in three of their final five games which led to the firing of offensive coordinator Robert Matthews at the end of the season. They re-hired former OC Bryan Vincent from a now defunct UAB team, leaving the Jags in a bit of scramble mode on offense coming into this game. That’s not good for a team that ranks 104th in the nation in scoring offense and 107th in passing efficiency. I think the Jaguars will struggle against a Bowling Green offense that likes to move at a rapid no-huddle pace and score as quickly as possible. I don’t believe it will give South Alabama enough time to regroup on the sidelines before it's thrown back out on the field and left to work out the kinks in-game. In terms of motivation, I feel Bowling Green has the edge there too. Even though USA is playing in its home state, the Jaguars are playing in their first bowl game in school history and could just be thrilled to be there. The Falcons, meanwhile, are playing in their third straight bowl game and lost their last two and failed to cover. I expect them to be hungry to end that losing streak this year. 10* Best Bet |
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12-20-14 | Utah v. Colorado State +4.5 | 45-10 | Loss | -108 | 213 h 36 m | Show | |
I am playing on COLORADO STATE. I think oddsmakers got this one wrong in opening Utah as the favorite in the Las Vegas Bowl so I see a nice early bowl-season opportunity here. Utah plays in a better conference and Colorado State enters this game with an interim coach after Jim McElwain left for Florida, but that just helps gives us a couple more points to work with. CSU offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will take over as interim coach, which I feel will be a seamless transition considering the Rams won mainly with offense all year. The Rams own the eighth best passing offense in the country, the 12 best overall offense and the 21st ranked scoring offense. The Salt Lake Tribune also went on with promising offensive merits: “They have the second-most efficient passer in the nation, a Biletnikoff finalist at receiver, a running back who started his career at Alabama, and an offensive tackle who is a potential first-rounder in the upcoming draft.” Not bad. It’s even better when you consider Utah lost the yardage battle against just about everyone it played this season. The Utes were out-yarded in nine straight games before gaining just six more yards than Colorado in the season finale and the Buffs happen to be the worst team in the Pac-12 after failing to win a conference game this season. I don’t feel Colorado State will lack any motivation for this game, which is a concern for some. The Las Vegas Bowl is still the second best bowl available to a Mountain West squad, while on the other hand, this is about the lowest-tier bowl for a Pac-12 team. If anyone will be lacking motivation, I feel it will likely be the Utes. 9* Opening Day Shocker |
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12-06-14 | Florida State -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -125 | 124 h 7 m | Show |
I am playing on FLORIDA STATE. All the Seminoles ever seem to do is win and their winning streak is now at a legendary 28 games. I believe their streak will continue on Saturday in the ACC Championship game and they’ll grab the money at the betting window to go along with it. |
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12-06-14 | Temple v. Tulane +4 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -106 | 124 h 32 m | Show |
I am playing on TULANE. At first it may appear like Tulane doesn’t have much to play for, but this will be Senior Day for the Green Wave and all signs are pointing to a strong effort. |
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12-06-14 | Iowa State +33 v. TCU | Top | 3-55 | Loss | -106 | 116 h 10 m | Show |
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12-05-14 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green +7 | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 13 m | Show | |
I am playing on BOWLING GREEN. I believe oddsmakers are undervaluing Bowling Green for the second straight year in the MAC Championship game and once again bettors have a great opportunity to take advantage. |
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12-04-14 | Central Florida v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 32-30 | Loss | -106 | 76 h 45 m | Show |
I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. The Pirates have the benefit of playing on home field on Senior Night for this nationally televised contest on ESPN and I think the crowd will help ECU maintain its perfect record on home soil this season. |
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11-29-14 | Auburn v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 44-55 | Win | 100 | 101 h 26 m | Show |
I am playing on ALABAMA. If I were to run down all the impressive numbers the Crimson Tide possess, you’d have to clear your evening schedule, pull up a couch and get comfortable. |
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11-29-14 | Florida v. Florida State -7 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE |
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11-29-14 | Syracuse +11 v. Boston College | 7-28 | Loss | -105 | 116 h 56 m | Show | |
I am playing on SYRACUSE. The Orange finally have some motivation with a rivalry game against Boston College and I feel oddsmakers are being too generous with the points in this game. |
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11-28-14 | Stanford +5 v. UCLA | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 19 m | Show |
I am playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal have had UCLA’s number recently with wins in the last six meetings while they covered the spread in five of those. |
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11-28-14 | Northern Illinois +8.5 v. Western Michigan | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 69 h 52 m | Show | |
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