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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-07-10 | Nebraska v. Kansas State +12 | Top | 48-13 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS STATE. The Huskers are a good team and they've been dominant thus far. All four of their wins have come by a minimum of two touchdowns. That said, a closer look reveals that only one of those games was really that "impressive." That was their 56-21 destruction of the Huskies, at Washington. Give them credit for that one. However, the other three victories have all come at home and they've come against the likes of Western Kentucky, Idaho and South Dakota State.
Note that Nebraska was 0-3 ATS in those games. Last time out, facing lowly South Dakota State, star QB Taylor Martinez was 6 of 14 for 140 yards with only one touchdown. He was held to a season-low 75 rushing yards and was replaced by Cody Green in the fourth quarter. Despite winning by wide margins, the Huskers have been unable to cover the 'inflated' pointspreads. Now, they're being asked to go on the road and win by double-digits against an undefeated and highly motivated conference rival. I believe that's asking too much. The Wildcats come in with a perfect 4-0 record. In addition to blowing out Missouri State, they've earned victories over the likes of UCLA, Iowa State and Central Florida. All three of those wins came by single-digits, including a big comeback (scored winning TD with 24 secs left) last time out. I feel that the Wildcats "close-game experience" will serve them well here. The Wildcats covered at Nebraska at the end of last season. They lost that one by 14. While the Huskers may be even better this season, I feel that the same can be said of the Wildcats. Including last season's ATS loss against K-State, the Huskers are a money-burning 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. Looking back further and we find the Huskers at 2-6 the last eight times that they were listed as road favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. True, the Wildcats are going to have their hands full in stopping the Huskers rushing attack. Nebraska coach Bo Pelini knows his Huskers are also in for a challenge though. He said this of the Wildcats: "They are well coached. They are physical. They are good team. It will be a real challenge on the road..." Note that the Jayhawks have a bigtime rushing attack of their own and that while the Huskers have been tough against the run, they're currently dealing with some issues at linebacker, with a couple of starters expected to be out. The Huskers were just 3-5 ATS (4-4 SU) when playing in the month of October, the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, the Wildcats were 6-3 ATS in their October games. Snyder's team played two October home games last season and the Wildcats won by a combined score of 82-20. They were underdogs vs. Texas A&M but won by a score of 62-14. The following week, they were small favorites vs. Colorado, and they won by two touchdowns. While I certainly respect the Huskers, I look for the Wildcats to give them all they can handle here, improving to 16-5 ATS their last 21 October home games. *10 |
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10-02-10 | Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Hawaii | 21-41 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA TECH. The majority of the betting public is likely going to favor Hawaii in this one. After all, the Warriors are at home and are coming off a 66-7 victory. LA Tech, on the other hand, is off three straight losses and is playing on the road. Those results will have most believing that Hawaii is the far superior team in this matchup. That perception has allowed us to be able to get more than a touchdown with the visiting Bulldogs. I feel that provides excellent value.
Yes, Hawaii won huge last week. However, that was against "Charleston Southern" and the Warriors were laying -32 points. The "Buccaneers" had previously faced teams like Mars Hill and North Greenville (they also lost by double-digits to Wofford) and were playing their first road game. So, the Warriors blowout needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Hawaii's other games resulted in double-digit losses vs. USC and at Colorado and a very close 3-point win over Army. As usual, the Warriors passing attack appears to be in good shape. They don't have a running game though, and having a one-dimensional attack may prove to be less effective in conference play. LA Tech's 3-game losing streak isn't quite as bad as it seems, as the Bulldogs were underdogs in all three games. Last week, the Bulldogs were facing a solid Southern Miss. team. They lost - but only by one point. The previous losses came vs. Navy and at Texas A@M, also both solid programs. Now, they begin conference play and are excited about getting a "fresh start." While they have a new coach, this was expected to be an improved LA Tech team this season. They've got a few games against decent opponents to get used to the new spread offense (Coach Sykes who has previously had jobs at Arizona and Texas Tech is considered a "spread expert") and a porous Hawaii defense (108 points allowed in 3 games vs. 1-A teams) figures to "just the ticket" to have a breakout game against. As for the defense, the Bulldogs retained their defensive coordinator (Tommy Spangler has seen the Bulldog defense improve from a yards standpoint in three straight seasons) and the 13 points allowed last week shows that they're capable of playing well on that side of the ball. Even with a cover last week, I really feel that this LA Tech is still flying under the radar. Note that the Bulldogs were arguably stronger than last season's 4-8 record indicated as they actually outgained WAC opponents by an average of 27.9 yards per game. While the Warriors were admittedly distracted by a "tsunami," note that the Bulldogs beat them convincingly last season, delivering a 27-6 beatdown. The previous season, at Hawaii, the Bulldogs lost by 10. In 2007, I had my "WAC Game of the Year" on LA Tech as a 4-touchdown underdog. The Bulldogs took Hawaii to overtime and lost by only one point. In other words, they've played the Warriors pretty tough the past few seasons. While both teams are 8-8 SU in conference play the past two seasons, the Bulldogs were 10-5-1 ATS while the Warriors were 8-7-1 ATS. Note that the Bulldogs are 6-1-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range and 6-0-1 ATS the last seven times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *8 |
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10-02-10 | Stanford Cardinal v. Oregon Ducks -7 | Top | 31-52 | Win | 100 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. I really respect the Cardinal. They're a strong well-coached team with a great QB. They've also gotten off to an excellent start to the season. I even won with them when they upset the Ducks last season. That was a terrific scheduling spot for the Cardinal though. For starters, they were under-valued, as many still didn't realize how good they were. Indeed, despite playing at home, they were getting +6.5 or +7 points. Not only were the Cardinal playing at home, they were also coming off a bye. Additionally, they were catching Oregon off an upset win over USC. Indeed, as I said, it was a terrific "setup" for Stanford. This year figures to be much different.
We know how good Oregon was last season. The 2010 version could well be better. Last year's team returned only nine starters. This year's team returned a whopping 17. In going 4-0, the Ducks have destroyed their opponents by an average score of 57.7 to 11. That includes road games at venues like Arizona State and Tennessee. Last year, the Ducks may have overlooked Stanford. Having lost that game, they surely won't make the same mistake here. Indeed, both teams know that this game ranks among the most important games of the year. The Cardinal are 1-2 SU/ATS the last three times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. During the same stretch, the Ducks are 2-0 SU/ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Cardinal are 3-4 SU/ATS in October the past few seasons. The Ducks are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in October. Last year, as mentioned, Stanford had the advantage of playing at home and coming off a bye. No such luck this season. Not only are the Cardinal on the road - but they also played on the road last week, a nationally televised affair at Notre Dame. Give them credit for playing very well in that game. However, the Cardinal have not performed well when playing the second of back to back road games. Stanford played back to back road games twice in 2006. After playing at UCLA, they proceeded to lose by 21 vs. Notre Dame. Also, after playing at Oregon, the Cardinal lost outright (as -9.5 point favorites) to San Jose State. In 2007, the Cardinal played b2b road games just once. After winning at Arizona in the first leg of the "road trip," they lost by 17 at Oregon State when playing their second straight away from home. In 2008, the Cardinal were 0-2 SU/ATS when playing the second of back to back road games, losing by 17 and 7 points. True, the Cardinal are better now than they were then. Stanford was pretty good last season too though - and the Cardinal were still 0-2 when playing the second of back to back road games. They lost at Wake Forest and also at Arizona. Lets see, that 0-7 SU the last seven times that the Cardinal played the second of b2b road games. While they lost at Stanford last season, the Ducks are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four times that they hosted the Cardinal. They won all four games by a minimum of a touchdown and by an average of 26.75 points. Playing with 'revenge' and with much on the line, I expect another convincing win and cover. *10 |
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10-02-10 | Duke +8.5 v. Maryland | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DUKE. This line has climbed from its opener. I believe that provides us with plenty of value on the visitors. One of the reasons that the Terrapins are laying more than a touchdown is because they boast a 3-1 record. However, I believe that those three wins need to be "taken with a grain of salt."
The Terps' last victory came at home, against a winless and relatively weak Florida International squad. Sure, Maryland ended up winning by 14. However, a closer look reveals that the game was tied late in the third quarter and that FIU actually had a commanding 28-15 edge in first downs, for the game. Overall, the Golden Panthers outgained the Terps by a 472-419 margin. Prior to that, Maryland lost by double-digits at West Virginia - no real shame in that. (I played against the Terps in that one.) Before that, their two wins came against 1-AA Morgan State and against Navy. Beating Navy (17-14) was somewhat impressive. However, the Midshipmen aren't as strong this season and the Terps were outgained in that one by a whopping 485-272 margin. In other words, one could argue that the Terps are rather fortunate to be 3-1. In three games against 1-A opponents, they've given up 485, 469 and 482 yards, getting victimized both through the air and on the ground. Admittedly, the Blue Devils have been less impressive. They're 1-3 and the lone win came vs. 1-AA Elon. While the Duke defense has definitely struggled, the offense has shown an ability to move the ball and score points. The Blue Devils are averaging better than 30 points per game and more than 425 yards per game. The Blue Devils lone road game, at Wake Forest, came down to the Wire. Duke led much of the way, eventually losing by six. Counting that one as an ATS loss (it landed right near the number and could have been considered a push) the Blue Devils are still a respectable 7-5 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons, including 3-2 ATS as road underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Note that they were a solid 4-2-1 ATS in October, during that stretch. Even counting last week's somewhat fortunate cover, the Terps are still just 3-5 ATS as favorites, the past 2+ seasons. The Blue Devils won last year's meeting by a score of 17-13. They outgained the Terps by a 394-249 margin. I expect the Blue Devils to give them all they can handle again here. *8 |
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10-01-10 | BYU v. Utah State +5 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. The Cougars have dominated this "rivalry" in recent years. This year's BYU team isn't as good though. I expect the Aggies, who I believe to be much improved, to give their instate guests all they can handle.
Both teams have played fairly difficult schedules and both come in at 1-3. The Cougars began their campaign with a solid 6-point home win vs. Washington. They've lost each of their last three games by double-digits though. In fact, all three losses came by at least two touchdowns and they came by an average of 19.67 points. Note that BYU suffered fairly heavy offseason losses, including QB Max Hall. Overall, the Cougars returned only 12 starters. The Aggies did get blown out at San Diego State last week. They played Fresno State fairly tough in their most recent home game though. That game was tied at halftime and also entering the fourth quarter. The Aggies easily won their other home game, a blowout vs. a weak Idaho State program. More impressive, however, was the way they played Oklahoma. Indeed, this team actually outgained the Sooners and lost by only seven points, at Oklahoma. Unlike BYU, the Aggies could be considered an 'experienced team,' as they brought back 16 starters from last season's team. While the Cougars no longer have Max Hall, the Aggies bring back QB Diondre Borel. You may recall that Borel was 20 of 28 for 213 yards at BYU last year. True, BYU has dominated the series from a SU standpoint. That doesn't mean that the Aggies don't "get up" for these games though. Last year, at BYU, (when the Cougars were ranked #20 in the country) covered the spread, as they also did here in 2008, that time against a BYU team which was ranked #8 in the country. The Cougars are just 1-6 ATS their last seven games against teams with a winning record and only 7-12 ATS the last 19 times that they were laying points. During the same stretch, the Aggies are 12-7-1 ATS when getting points. Note that they're also an outstanding 7-2 ATS when coming off back to back SU losses. The Aggies know that they went on the road and played the Cougars tough (at least for 3 quarters) last season. That should give them added confidence to believe that they can actually beat them here at home, particularly as they know BYU isn't as strong this season and as they feel that they are stronger. Going on the road and giving the Sooners all they could handle was great. However, beating BYU, in front of the home fans and a National TV audience would be even sweeter. They've had this game circled and I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. *9 |
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09-30-10 | Texas A&M +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing TEXAS A&M. The Cowboys have beaten the Aggies in back to back seasons. Playing at home, most expect them to "do it again" and they're listed as favorites. However, I believe that the Aggies, who have never lost three in a row in the series and are still 17-8 all-time, have an excellent shot at the upset.
Both teams check in at 3-0. Neither has played a really difficult opponent though. Oklahoma State did have to face Tulsa, a tougher opponent than the Aggies have dealt with. Still, this figures to be by far the biggest challenge for both teams. Speaking of the Tulsa game, Oklahoma State admittedly did put up some rather awesome offensive stats in that game. The Cowboys were far less impressive on the defensive side of the ball though and they'll be up against a far tougher defense here (than they saw vs. Tulsa) though. The Cowboys have had an edge over the Aggies in the talent and/or experience department the past two seasons. That's not the case here though. Arguably not in the talent department and definitely not in terms of experience. The Aggies brought back 16 starters this season, second most in the Big 12. On the other hand, the Cowboys suffered some major losses from last season, including QB Zac Robinson, WR Dez Bryant and six of their top seven tacklers. Overall, they brought back only eight starters from last season's team. Speaking of last season, the Aggies gave the Cowboys all they could handle in last year's game, eventually losing by five. At the time the Cowboys were ranked #15 in the country. Needless to say, they're not nearly as highly regarded this season, at least not yet. On the other hand, the Aggies figure to be much improved from last year. The Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were favored by four points or less. On the other hand, the database shows that the Aggies have only been listed as road underdogs of four points or less twice since October of 2007. On 10/20/07, they were small underdogs at Nebraska. The following season, in October of 2008, they were three road point underdogs at Iowa State. In each case, they won outright. They beat the Huskers 36-14 in '07 and they beat the Cyclones 49-35 in Oct. of '08. I'll be grabbing the points. However, I won't be at all surprised if the well rested Aggies score another "outright" October road victory tonight. *10 |
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09-25-10 | Utah State +8 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH STATE. While they both lost last week, I feel that these teams are each improved from last season. The Aztecs' loss figures to be tougher to bounce back from though, which is one of the reasons I favor the visitors here.
The reason that I say the Aztecs could have some trouble "bouncing back," is because they lost an absolute heartbreaker last Saturday. Playing on the road, against a solid Missouri team, the Aztecs were underdogs of greater than two touchdowns. After all, they had a 22-game losing streak against teams from a Bowl Championship Series conference. However, they played a great game and with only one minute remaining, appeared on the verge of scoring the big upset. That's when Missouri hit them with a 68-yard touchdown pass though. The Missouri play (T.J. Moe) made a move at midfield which caused two San Diego State players to collide. Remember, these are still kids and "emotional losses" can be difficult to recover from. A victory last week would have been huge for the program and it may be easy for them to be thinking about "what could have been." Note that this isn't the first time that the Aztecs have played a "big name opponents" close. Most recently, after losing by only eight (as +21.5 point underdogs) vs. the Irish in Week 2 of the 2008 season, San Diego State responded by getting blown out by 25 vs. San Jose State (a team from the WAC) the following week. Even though I think this will be a tough spot for them, I do respect the Aztecs. They've proven to have quite a potent offense. That said, Utah State has already shown an ability to hang tough against a far stronger opponent, at a far more difficult venue. Indeed, the Aggies went into Norman and lost by only seven vs. the Sooners in Week 1. In fact, the Aggies actually had a 431-412 edge in total yards in that game. As mentioned, Utah State also lost last week. While it was certainly disappointing, the Aggies' loss (41-24 vs. Fresno State) wasn't nearly so "gut-wrenching" and therefore shouldn't be as difficult to bounce back from. Note that the game was a lot closer than the 41-24 score indicated. The Bulldogs benefitted from a big day on special teams. Also, note that that the Aggies are 8-2 (80%) ATS the last 10 times that they were off a loss vs. a conference oppponent. The Aztecs have gone just 2-4 ATS the last six times that they were favored. During that stretch, the Aggies have gone 12-6-1 ATS when getting points. The Aggies returned 16 starters (8 on each side of the ball) this season, including QB Diondre Borel. They've got some winnable games down the stretch and believe that if they can steal a couple of their next ones, that they have a shot at a bowl. After last game, Borel was quoted as saying: "This wasn't our best game; we will rebound and learn from this loss. We won't lose any confidence going forward, we feel like this is a special year for us and we will continue to fight to win games." I expect Borel and co. to "continue to fight" and for them to give their deflated hosts all they can handle. *10 |
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09-25-10 | Alabama v. Arkansas +7.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS. With the #1 ranking in the country, obviously Alabama is a very strong team. However, with that lofty ranking come some very high lines. Here, they're laying a touchdown on the road, against a very good Arkansas team. I believe that's asking too much.
The Crimson Tide destroyed Duke last week, winning by a score of 62-15. As impressive as the blowout sounds, Arkansas is off a victory which was arguably more impressive. The Razorbacks traveled to Georgia and defeated the Bulldogs. QB Ryan Mallet continues to show that he's the real deal. Against Georgia, he threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns. That gives him 1,081 yards on the season, most in the country. Named the SEC Player of the Week, he's completing 70% of his passes and has nine touchdowns to just two interceptions. Arkansas squandered a fourth quarter lead in last week's game. However, Mallet led them back for the win. That's the type of victory that can really help a team's confidence. While the Tide beat up on Arkansas (at Tuscaloosa) last season, Saban knows that this year's Razorbacks are no "slouches." He was quoted as saying: "This is a very good football team. Coach Bobby Petrino has done a very good job there and their quarterback is obviously one of the leaders in the nation in passing and their defense is in the top 10 in a lot of different categories." Note that Alabama, now playing its second straight road game, has Florida on deck. Also, note that the last time that the Tide played an SEC road game (at Auburn on 11/27/09) they failed to cover. Laying -10 points, they won by five, 26-21. Auburn outgained Alabama 332-291 in that game and dominated on the ground 151-73. The game was close the entire way with Alabama winning in the final 90 seconds. While some teams can experience a letdown, when coming off a big win, I don't expect that to be the case for Arkansas here. Not with the #1 team in the country coming to town. Petrino was quoted as saying: "We know it's a big week this week, with Alabama coming in here. I think our players are excited about it, I know our coaches are. We've got to make sure that we understand that we need to prepare like we did a week ago - with focus every day in practice. ... and really understand as a football team, I really believe this, that we don't need to go out and do anything extraordinary to win the game. We need to go out and play Razorback football, and we'll have an opportunity to win the game..." Arkansas is now 5-1 ATS the last six times that it was coming off two or more consecutive victories and 4-0 ATS the last four times it was coming off a win over an SEC opponent. I expect the Razorbacks to improve on those stats, as they give the champs all they can handle with a real shot at the outright 'shocker.' *8 |
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09-25-10 | Oklahoma -13.5 v. Cincinnati U | Top | 31-29 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. In Week 1, the Sooners struggled with Utah State. As a result, many bettors immediately jumped off the Oklahoma bandwagon. That led to a generously low line on Oklahoma for Week 2. Hosting Florida State, they were laying only a touchdown. It also led to an extremely focused group of Sooners, which in turn led to a 47-17 blowout victory. After that 30-point win, fickle bettors were quick to jump back on the Oklahoma bandwagon for last week's game vs. Air Force. Once again, the Sooners struggled. They won but didn't come to close to covering. That result has many bettors again abandoning the Sooners, which in turn has led to a very generous line, one which has come down significantly from its opener. I feel that provides us with plenty of value on the favorite.
So, why were the Sooners able to blow out Florida State yet struggle with Utah State and Air Force. In my opinion, there are a couple of primary reasons. Most importantly, I believe that they were able to get fully "up" for a game vs. a big name team like Florida State, while that was a little more difficult for the lesser opponents. Also, both Utah State and Air Force are underrated teams. Not only did the Sooners overlook them but they were actually more talented than expected or than many people still realize. The Sooners should have no problem "getting up" for Saturday's game. For starters, they just struggled in putting away Air Force. As it did after the Utah State game, that should ensure that Stoops and co. have the full attention of their players in practice this week. Also, Cincinnati is a bigger name program, one that is coming off a Big East Championship. This is a much different Bearcats team than the one we saw last season though. If you watched Thursday's game vs. NC State, you'll know what I'm talking about. Cincinnati lost by "only" 11 points but it easily could have been worse. The fact that they were only able to again 75 rushing yards on 31 carries made things extremely difficult on their QB, who was dealing with pressure all night. Things were even worse in the season opening 28-14 loss to Fresno State, as the Bearcats rushed for a mere 15 yards on 32 carries. That kind of production from the running game won't cut it against the Sooners. If Cincinnati had trouble with the Wolfpack, they're going to find that the Sooners are stronger, more talented and more athletic. The Bearcats and their fans might hope that Oklahoma will look past them, ahead to next week's showdown vs. Texas. That's wishful thinking though. Not only did the Sooners get a "wake up call" last week, but they're 2-0 before Texas the last two seasons, winning by scores of 49-17 and 33-7. The Sooners destroyed the Bearcats when these teams met two years ago. Oklahoma had a 592-326 edge in total yards and won by 26 points. I expect another convincing victory with the Sooners winning by more than two touchdowns and improving to 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. *10 |
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09-25-10 | N Carolina St v. Georgia Tech -8.5 | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. I successfully played against the Yellow Jackets when they lost outright at Kansas. That was on the road though, vs. a Jayhawks team which was determined to bounce back from an embarrassing loss the previous week. The Yellow Jackets bounced back from the Kansas loss with an impressive "upset" win at North Carolina. Now, back home, I expect the Jackets to follow it up with a big (double-digit) victory.
With last week's victory, the Jackets are 17-9 ATS in lined games the past 2+ seasons. That includes an extremely profitable 13-5 ATS record in conference play. The Wolfpack were impressive in last Thursday's win over Cincinnati. The fact that win came on National TV has worked in our favor. Not only might the Wolfpack be patting themselves on the back a bit, but everyone saw them win and cover. That's helped to keep the line reasonably low on the defending ACC Champs. While NC State deserves some credit for that victory, I don't think too highly of the Bearcats right now. So, the win didn't impress me as much as it might have others. The previous week, in their lone road game, the Wolfpack managed a mere 239 total yards at Central Florida. Their first game came against Western Carolina, so that one doesn't really count. The Jackets ground game is very tough to stop. They rushed for 372 yards (2nd time they hit that number) in last week's game at North Carolina and are averaging 345 per game. Playing at home, they should put up huge numbers against a NC State team which has a very inexperienced defensive line. The Jackets have won seven straight ACC games, not including the championship game win over Clemson and they've dominated ACC Atlantic opponents. They're also 10-3 against the Wolfpack in Bobby Dodd Stadium. Overall, the Jackets are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five meetings in the series. The Jackets are also 6-0 SU their last six September home games. They won those game by an average of 18.67 points with five of those victories coming by double-digits. I expect "more of the same" on Saturday afternoon. *9 |
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09-23-10 | Miami (Florida) v. Pittsburgh +3.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I played against the Panthers in their opening game. They lost by three points at Utah. That resulted in a 'push' for most, although the line was -2.5 when I released the play. Either way, even at the time, I acknowledged that the Panthers were a very talented team. I only felt that Utah was a very difficult venue for a team to play its opening game. The Panthers are back home now though. Naturally, that makes a significant difference. Miami is also a talented team, arguably even more so than the Panthers - the reason they're favored on the road. Like Pittsburgh, the Hurricanes have blown out one weak opponent and lost on the road vs. a good one. Their road loss came by double-digits at Ohio State, vs. a very strong Buckeyes team.
The Hurricanes are now 7-6 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, the Panthers are 11-3 SU at home. As noted, the Hurricanes are a good team. However, they've always got a talented lineup and they often underachieve. They haven't been very good in the role of small favorites either. They're 7-12 ATS the last 19 times that they were favored by four points or less, including just 2-5 ATS their last seven in that role. Overall, the Canes are just 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were favorites. On the other hand, counting the Utah game as a 'push,' the Panthers are a profitable 4-1-1 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs of four points or less. Overall, the Panthers are 9-4-1 ATS the last 14 times that they were listed as underdogs, dating back to the beginning of the 2007 season. Although neither knew it would be easy, both teams were hoping to be undefeated at this point. I like the fact that Pittsburgh's loss came in Week 1 though. The Panthers have had an opportunity to bounce back from it. Miami, on the other hand, hasn't played since the loss. After the loss at Ohio State, coach Shannon really let his team have it. The players say that they'll use that as motivation. It doesn't always work that way though. The Hurricanes believed that if they could have won at Ohio State, that this could have been a really special season. While it can still be a great season, it can no longer be an undefeated one. Dealing with that first loss, when a team has high expectations, is often difficult. We can look at fellow ACC member, Virginia Tech, for a recent. The Hokies also believe that their season could be "special," if they could beat Boise State in their opener. They lost that game by a field goal though. All the players talked about bouncing back the following week. Instead, they were still do disappointed from the opening loss, that they responded by losing to James Madison in their next game. It should also be noted that this is the middle of three road games and that Miami has Clemson on deck, a team which rallied late and defeated them in Overtime last season. Playing at home, I'll grab the points with Wannstedt's Panthers. *10 |
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09-18-10 | Alabama v. Duke +24.5 | Top | 62-13 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on DUKE. Generally, when I play on an underdog, I like to feel that the underdog has a real shot at winning the game outright. However, when getting more than three extra touchdowns to work with, that doesn't necessarily have to be the case. In this case, I feel the line is too high and believe that the Blue Devils will prove more competitive than most expect.
Yes, Alabama is an excellent team. The Crimson Tide are the defending champs. They're off a blowout win over Penn State and now they're expected to get Mark Ingram back. Facing lowly Duke, most will expect an easy blowout. This is a decent Duke team though and its also a difficult spot for Alabama. For starters, the Tide are playing their first road game of the season. While they've admittedly been an excellent road team, the Tide won last season's first "true road game" (they'd previously played a neutral site game, which they won by 10) by "only" 18 points. Not only are the Tide playing their first road game, but they're in a potential "letdown" and/or "lookahead" spot. Not only are they off a blowout win over a big name program, they've also got the start of SEC play on deck. Following Duke, the Tide will face a nationally ranked Arkansas team and that's followed by Florida. Off the big win, which could cause some players to be patting themselves on the back a bit, and with the big games on deck, it would be easy to look past lowly Duke. Regarding the expected return of Ingram. Yes, he makes the offense even stronger. That said, there can sometimes be a tendency for other players to let down a little, when a 'star' returns. While the Tide still have some bigtime defenders, (and have only allowed six points) it should be noted that they only returned two starters on that side of the ball. Here, they'll go up against a Duke offense which has been putting up some really big numbers. The Blue Devils lost by six at Wake Forest last week, an ATS loss or push, depending on when/where one played. They put up a whopping 48 points in the process though. That was after they scored 41 in their opener. While obviously not in the same class as their guests, the Blue Devils are an improved team. Note that Duke coach David Cutliffe is entering his third season, often a good year for college coaches. Cutliffe has Blue Devils players and fans believing that the team has turned the corner. So committed is he to finishing what he started here, Cutliffe even turned down an offer to be the head coach at Tennessee. While this game means little to Alabama, its one that the Blue Devils have had circled. Just playing well against the defending champs would help show that things are going in the right direction. The line has moved in our favor. I feel that provides us with plenty of value and I look for the Blue Devils to improve to 5-1 ATS their last six non-conference lined games. *10 |
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09-18-10 | East Carolina v. Virginia Tech -19.5 | Top | 27-49 | Win | 100 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. Here, we have a 0-2 team facing a 2-0 team. Yet, the winless team is favored by nearly three touchdowns. Some will feel that offers real value on the visitors.
However, I believe the Hokies are favored by this many for good reason and I expect them to bounce back with a blowout victory. So, how did Virginia Tech get to be 0-2? While, as most of you probably know, the Hokies faced a very good Boise State team in their opener. The Hokies, who began the season as the #10 ranked team, quietly felt that if they won that game, they'd have a shot at playing for the National title. It was close - but Boise won 33-30. Off that "heart-breaker" and playing on a short week, the Hokies were stunned by James Madison in their last game. The Hokies have had a full week of preparation time for this one. They're now long over hanging their heads about the Boise loss and "what could have been." Instead, they're focused on destroying someone, to regain some confidence after last week's humbling defeat. East Carolina, which returned only eight starters from last season, figures to be the perfect opponent. Give the Pirates credit for starting 2-0. However, lets keep in mind that both victories came against CUSA opponents and both games came at home. This is still a very inexperienced team, with a 1st year head coach. Now, they play their first road game - and do so at one of the more difficult venues in the entire country. Last year, the Hokies traveled to East Carolina and beat a much better Pirates team by 13 points. The Hokies are 3-0 the last three times that they hosted the Pirates, winning by a combined score of 90-24. All three victories were by double-digits. With an O/U line in the high 50s, note that the Hokies are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they played a home game with a total in the 56.5 to 63 range. The Hokies are also 13-5 ATS the last 18 times that they were coming off back to back SU losses. They should improve on those stats here, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. *10 |
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09-18-10 | Maryland v. West Virginia -10 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 43 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. In large part because of last week's results, this number has come down from its opener. The Mountaineers had trouble (won by 3) at Marshall last week while the Terrapins beat up on Morgan State. I feel that line move has provided us with excellent value on what I expect to prove to be a superior team.
Yes, the Mountaineers had trouble beating Marshall. That was on the road though. Also, the fact that they rallied late for the win, erasing a 15-point 4th quarter deficit, should really help this team come together. Its the type of victory that a team can really build positive momentum from and I expect to be the case here. After last week's game, West Virginia coach Bill Russel was quoted as saying: "I looked up and there was eight minutes to go and we were down 21-6 and we go 96 yards and 98 yards and score a two-point conversion. That just shows you how we grew in the fourth quarter." Yes, the Terps are 2-0 and appear to be improved from last year's team. However, considering that last year's team was only 2-10, that's not necessarily saying a lot. Also, as mentioned, last week's opponent was Morgan State. So, that victory needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Also, the first victory came against Navy and the Terps were outgained by a whopping 485 to 272 margin. So, that victory could be considered somewhat "fortunate." The fact that they gave up more than 400 yards on the ground to Navy spells trouble with Noel Devine coming to town. Note that Devine has already gone over the 100 yard mark in each of his first two games. Note that the Terps are an awful 3-6-1 ATS (1-9 SU) their last 10 lined road games. The Mountaineers are better on both sides of the ball. Devine gives them arguably the better running game. (The Terps have more rushing yards so far.) However, unlike Maryland, the Mountaineers can also throw the ball. Maryland QBs are a combined 13 of 30 for 160 yards so far. West Virginia's QB stats come in at 55 of 77 for 532 yards. The Mountaineers won by 17, at Maryland, the last time that these teams met. Playing at home, I expect another double-digit victory this afternoon. *9 |
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09-18-10 | Connecticut v. Temple +6.5 | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEMPLE. This line has climbed from its opener. In a game where points could be at a premium (the total is in the 40s) I feel that provides us with excellent value on the home underdogs. Note that these teams faced each other here in 2008. The game was decided by only three points, a 12-9 Connecticut victory, on Overtime. Temple, a +6.5 point underdog, led 6-0 at halftime and got the cover.
The Huskies bounced back from a 30-10 loss to Michigan in Week 1, with a blowout of their own last Saturday. However, keep in mind that the opponent was Texas Southern. While I respect the Huskies, I feel that they're being asked to lay too many points here. The Owls beat Central Michigan in their last game, moving to 2-0 SU. They failed to cover the spread though, winning by only three points. Here, the Owls are underdogs, a role which has been far kinder to them. The Owls were a profitable 8-4 ATS as underdogs the past couple of seasons. That includes a 6-2 ATS mark as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range and a perfect 2-0 ATS record as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. The Owls secondary looked a little vulnerable against Central Michigan but the defense was stout against the run. The Chippewas managed a mere 43 yards on 33 carries. The strong run defense should serve them well here (and the questionable secondary shouldn't be a big issue) as the Huskies prefer to run the ball. Likewise, the Owls like to run the ball regularly. However, the Huskies run defense has been far less impressive. In the loss to Michigan, UConn allowed a whopping 287 yards on the ground. The Owls are also 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off a SU win over a conference opponent and 6-2 ATS their last eight non-conference games. With 16 returning starters from last year's 9-4 team, this is arguably a more talented group than the one that took the Huskies to OT in 2008. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire. *9 |
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09-17-10 | California v. Nevada +3.5 | Top | 31-52 | Win | 100 | 91 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEVADA. These are two good teams, both coming off convincing victories. While I respect California, I also feel that Nevada is an excellent team. Playing at home, I feel that the Wolfpack have an excellent shot at the outright upset.
The Wolfpack destroyed Colorado State 51-6 on Saturday. Nevada had 631 yards of total offense and scored on every offensive possession. The 50+ points was "nothing new." After all, the Wolfpack top the 50 point mark regularly. You may recall that the Wolfpack closed last regular season by scoring 61, 52 and 63 points, before managing "only" 33 at Boise State in their finale. The Wolfpack offense returned a whopping nine starters this season, including senior QB Colin Kaepernick, so we know they're going to be potent offensively again. Speaking of Kaepernick, he accounted for 402 total yards and four touchdowns last week. He rushed for 161 yards and two touchdowns and he completed 21 of 29 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns. Through two games, he's now completed 71% of his passes. The fact that the Wolfpack limited the Rams to only six points was arguably more encouraging than the 51 points scored. It was the fewest points they'd allowed since November of 2006, when the Wolf Pack shut out Louisiana Tech. California is coming off a 52-7 dismantling of Colorado. As impressive a score as that is, a closer look reveals that the stats weren't nearly as lopsided as the score. The first downs were roughly equal (18-17 in favor of Cal) and the Buffaloes had an edge in time of possession. The Bears had a solid edge it total yards (356-239) but it still wasn't as wide a margin as one might normally expect of a 45-point win. I've already stated that I respect the Bears and that they are a talented team. That said, I do think they'll give up quite a few points here. Note that the Bears, who gave up 25.5 points per game last season, lost three starters, including their top guy, from their secondary. It should also be noted that the Bears, who have their conference opener on deck, are in one of their worst roles here. They're a money-burning 5-15 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as favorites of four points or less. The Wolfpack played at Boise last season but this year they host the Broncos. They feel that they've got a real shot at winning that game and subsequently winning the WAC. A win in that game combined with an upset over the Bears here and this is a team that could really gain people's attention. The Wolfpack are in one of their best roles here, as we find them at 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs of four points or less. Five of those games resulted in SU victories. I'll grab the points. However, with Kaepernick "doing his thing," I feel that the Wolfpack have an excellent shot at another upset here. *10 |
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09-11-10 | Florida State v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 43 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. Last week's results have worked in our favor. Oklahoma struggled against Utah State. Florida State destroyed Samford. However, let's not forget that Utah State is a lot better than Samford. Samford was below .500 in the Southern Conference. Utah State returned 16 starters from a team that closed out last season with two victories in three games and which had managed to be somewhat competitive against teams like Nevada, Hawaii, BYU, Utah and Fresno State. (The only team to beat the Aggies by more than 18 last season was Boise State.)
I say the Week 1 results have worked in our favor for a couple of reasons. For starters, they've helped us in terms of line value. This line could easily have been higher. Instead, its come down from its opener, which was already generously low, in my opinion. Also, the fact that the Sooners had a "wake up call" last week should have helped them be fully focused during this week's practices, ready to really listen to what coach Stoops has to say. Yes, the Seminoles are a talented team. In fact, if they can stay healthy, they've got a good chance at advancing to the ACC Title game. That said, the Sooners are an even more talented team, one which should prove to be extremely potent offensively. If the Sooners can stay healthy, they got a legitimate shot at advancing to the National Title game. The Sooners figure to have something to prove, too. Not only did they fail to impress last week, but they are coming off a bad year. The Oklahoma players and coaches know that blowing out a team like Florida State, on National TV, would go a long way to showing that "the Sooners are back." If/When they do manage to get a lead, I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. It should be noted that the Sooners have thrived as home favorites of this size. In fact, excluding Bowl games (played at neutral sites) and games vs. Texas (played at Dallas) where the Sooners were called the 'home,' team, Oklahoma has gone a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that it was a home favorite of eight or fewer points. The last time they were in that role, laying -8 vs. Oklahoma State, they won by 27. Prior to that, laying -7 vs. Texas Tech, they won by 44. Looking to make a statement to the entire country, I expect another double-digit victory for Stoops' Sooners here. *10 |
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09-11-10 | Georgia Tech v. Kansas +14 | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on KANSAS. The Yellow Jackets are a good team and they're well coached. That said, I feel that this is too many points for them to be laying for their road opener, against a Big 12 opponent.
True, the Jayhawks are off to an awful start, as they lost to North Dakota State last weekend. That's given us plenty of line value here though, as not many people will touch Kansas now and the line is extremely high. In addition to keeping people from wanting to bet them, the Jayhawks' loss vs. North Dakota may also have Georgia Tech taking this game for granted. Note that the Yellow Jackets have a big conference game vs. North Carolina on deck. Last season, prior to facing UNC, the Yellow Jackets lost by 16 points. Coincidentally, that was also their road opener. While the Yellow Jackets are still going to have a potent offense, keep in mind that the offense lost both its top running back and top receiver from last year's team. Also, the Yellow Jackets are learning a new defensive scheme, having switched to the 3-4. Last week, they allowed a 1-AA (Championship Subdivision) team to run for nearly 200 yards against them New Kansas coach Turner Gill has proven capable. I expect him to have his players ready and for them to respond with a MUCH better effort this afternoon. *8 |
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09-11-10 | Duke +5.5 v. Wake Forest | 48-54 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with DUKE. The Demon Deacons have dominated the Blue Devils for quite a few seasons now. That was the case again last year as Wake Forest closed out the regular season with a 45-34 victory, at Duke. I won't be surprised if the Blue Devils avenge that loss here though.
Both teams defeated weak teams last week, so we can't take too much from those results. We do know, however, that Duke brought back more starters (15) from last season, than did Wake Forest. One possible question mark that the Blue Devils had coming in was at QB, as Sean Renfree is taking over for Thaddeus Lewis. With all due respect to Lewis, who holds all kinds of Duke records and had a great career, that may not prove to be such a big dropoff, afterall. Renfree was an outstanding 31-of-39 last week, throwing for 350 yards and three touchdowns. Even against a weak defense, those numbers are very impressive. This week, Renfree will face a Wake Forest secondary that gave up a whopping 292 passing yards to 1-AA Presbyterian last week. Wake Forest also loses its QB, Ryan Skinner. Like Lewis, Skinner had a terrific college career. While the Deacons will be running a different offense this season, I expect the dropoff in overall production from Skinner to Stachitas to be greater than the one from Lewis to Renfree. (At least for this week.) Duke coach David Cutliffe is entering his third season, often a good year for college coaches. Cutliffe has Blue Devils players and fans believing that the team has turned the corner. So committed is he to finishing what he started here, Cutliffe even turned down an offer to be the head coach at Tennessee! While the Deacons are 6-8 ATS their last 14 lined home games, the Blue Devils are 7-4 ATS their last 11 road lined games. That includes a Duke pointspread victory the last time that the Blue Devils played here. Duke was an eight point underdog in that one but had an edge it total yards and time of possession, losing by only three points. Including that result, the Blue Devils are a profitable 7-2 ATS their last nine meetings here. Note that Duke has more road wins under Cutliffe the last two years, than it had in the previous eight years combined. That includes a double-digit victory in last season's road opener. I expect them to be ready to play once again. *9 |
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09-11-10 | Hawaii v. Army -3 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARMY. I successfully played against the Black Knights last week. However, even at the time, I acknowledged that they were likely going to be an improved team this season. I just felt that they were laying too many points against what I felt would be a very determined Eastern Michigan team. That proved to be the case. Army eked out a SU win, but couldn't cover. This week, with a much lower line, a SU Army victory should also result in a cover. I feel that the situation is favorable for the Knights and look for them to improve to 2-0.
Last week, the Knights were on the road, laying more than a touchdown. This week, they're at home and laying a field goal, or possibly less at some shops. Note that Army is 2-0 SU/ATS the last two times it was a home favorite of -3 points or less and 3-1 SU/ATS its last four times when playing a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. Last week, the Knights were facing a revenge-minded home underdog which was determined to earn a victory, after going winless the previous season. This week, the Knights catch the Warriors having traveled from Hawaii off a hard-fought loss vs. USC. Army may have taken Eastern Michigan for granted a bit last week. The Knights don't figure to do so against a bigger name program like Hawaii, particularly after seeing the Warriors rack up big yardage vs. the Trojans. Note that this is the further East the Warriors have traveled and that they are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road openers. While the Warriors will surely get their yards through the air, the Knights should be able to effectively run the ball against a very porous Hawaii run defense. (Note that Hawaii QB Bryant Moniz is expected to play but that he's a bit banged up and may not be 100%.) This game figures to have plenty of significance for the Knights. Not only is it their home opener but coach Rich Ellerson has been a coach in the Hawaii program and that's his alma mater. Army returned 16 starters (high for a service academy) while Hawaii only returned 12. I'll lay the small number with the home team. *10 |
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09-09-10 | Central Michigan v. Temple -7 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEMPLE. The Chippewas have been the best team in the MAC in recent seasons. Indeed, they've gone 32-7 in MAC play the last five years. No other team reached 25 conference wins.
Things figure to be different this year though. Central Michigan loses its top running back and both its top receivers. Making matters worse, the Chipewas no longer have QB Dan LeFevour. Additionally, they've got a new head coach and are learning new systems on both sides of the ball. The defense returns only five starters. Unlike their guests, the Owls return plenty (16) of starters. They also lost just 14 lettermen. Keep in mind that this team was 7-0 at one point last season. The Owls believe they have their best team in many years. They're talking about reaching double-digits in wins for the second time in team history, the only other time coming back in 1979. Both teams had a "warm-up" game last week and Central Michigan looked better than Temple. That's worked in our favor though, as has the Chippewas' past reputation. I say that, as I feel that this line could easily be higher. Speaking of the 'line,' the Owls have thrived as favorites in this range. They're 8-2-1 ATS (10-1 SU) the last 11 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. That includes a profitable 5-0-1 ATS (6-0 SU) record their last six in that role. These teams last met in 2008, at Central Michigan. The Owls had an edge in yards but turned the ball over four times and lost 24-14. Here's their chance to avenge that loss and make a statement that they're the team to beat in the MAC. *10 |
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09-05-10 | Tulsa -7 v. East Carolina | Top | 49-51 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULSA. I had East Carolina the last couple of times that the Pirates upset the Golden Hurricane, including last year's 44-17 destruction. I'm going with Tulsa this time though, as this should provide a great opportunity for the Golden Hurricane to exact some revenge.
The Pirates have been the CUSA Champs in back to back seasons. This is a rebuilding year though. In addition to having a new coaching staff, the Pirates return only eight starters from last season, including just two on defense. They are inexperienced at quarterback and must learn new schemes on both sides of the ball. While the Pirates will surely take a step back this season, the Golden Hurricanes figure to be improved from last year. They return 14 starters, including nine on offense. Indeed they return offensive players which accounted for 98% of last season's rushing yards and 91% of last season's passing yards. That type of experience should provide a significant advantage vs. an inexperienced defense which is still learning its new system and which lost ALL of its starting defensive linemen. Tulsa coach Todd Graham was quoted as saying: "Usually early in the year, teams beat themselves. We're going to make sure we don't beat ourselves with stupid penalties and we're going to take care of the football and make sure we play disciplined, Tulsa football." The Golden Hurricane have been very strong in September in recent seasons, going 4-1 ATS in September lined games. On the other hand, even the strong ECU squads of the last couple of seasons have gone just 1-6 ATS in September. Those numbers only figure to get worse here. The Golden Hurricane dominated the Pirates the last time that they played here, a 31-10 victory in 2006. They should be a much improved team this season and I look for their edge in the experience department to more than compensate for the Pirates' home field advantage. *10 |
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09-04-10 | Army v. Eastern Michigan +10 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 112 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with EASTERN MICHIGAN. With all the games on the Opening Saturday board, who wants to bet on a team which was 0-12 last season? That answer is not very many people. As a result, the oddsmakers are forced to give a very generous number with Eastern Michigan. That number has climbed even higher since its opener and I believe that's providing us with plenty of value with what figures to be a highly motivated home underdog.
Speaking of "line value," you may recall that these teams faced each other in last year's season opener. That game, which was also played here, marked the debut for both head coaches. The Eagles entered that game as the favorite, as they were laying -3.5 points. (Army won by 13.) Now, exactly one year later, in the same venue, we've got a swing in the line of nearly two full touchdowns. Again, I feel that provides us with excellent value, particularly as Eastern Michigan should be an improved team this season. Eastern Michigan coach Ron English had this to say: "There is no doubt that our players will be bigger, stronger, tougher and coached better than they were a year ago." Army coach Ellerson was quoted as saying: "The thing that I'm the most uneasy about is that there are a handful of guys who have played a big role, and that we anticipate will play a huge role in our team this coming season, who didn't practice because they were coming off of a shoulder, or a knee, or an ankle that precluded them from being able to have a spring ball...so you just worry about what surprises might be out there physically." Note that Army is 1-5 ATS the last six times it was laying points on the road and 7-12 ATS the last 19 times that it was favored in the -3.5 to -10 range overall. Prior to last year's 13-point game, these teams saw their 2008 meeting decided by only four points. Even last year's game saw the Eagles have an edge in first downs. (It would have been closer if Army had not scored a touchdown off a Eastern Michigan turnover inside their own 10.) English and the Eagles have had to endure a year of jokes about their winless record. They've got payback on their minds from last season's loss to Army on this field - the start of it all. I expect them to deliver an inspired effort and look for them to give the Knights all they can handle. *9 |
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09-04-10 | Purdue v. Notre Dame -11 | Top | 12-23 | Push | 0 | 109 h 44 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with NOTRE DAME. As you're probably aware, there are a number of changes at Notre Dame this season. The changes start at the top with Brian Kelly taking over for Charlie Weis.
While the Irish will need to deal with some of the changes in philosophy, Kelly's a proven winner. He'll be looking to make a statement in his first game and I feel that a home game vs. Purdue will provide the perfect opportunity for him to do so. With new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco switching to a 3-4, the Irish, who return 10 defensive starters, should be much better on defense this season. Diaco followed Kelly from Cincinnati. (The two also worked together before that.) Diaco's defense will the luxury of starting off against a Purdue offense which is still learning the ropes. Note that the Boilermakers' offense, which was already replacing its quarterback and three lineman, suffered another blow when Ralph Bolden, last year's leading rusher, went down with an ACL injury in the spring. Also, note that Diaco's Cincinnati defense ranked third nationally in tackles for loss and tied for 10th in sacks last season. Diaco worked fast, too, as last year was his first year at Cincinnati. He helped a good Cincinnati defense become much better. Note that when switching to Diaco's system last season, the Bearcats allowed 15 points in their opener and just three points in their home opener, the following week. (The Bearcats were 2-0 SU/ATS in those games, winning by a combined score of 117-18!) Bolden's injury was just one of many injuries that Purdue has had to deal with. All five scholarship running backs missed the spring game and quarterback Robert Marve "wore down" during the spring. Its on the defensive side of the ball where Purdue's real issues are though. Speaking of 'issues,' note that the Boilermakers are just 5-12 SU/ATS the last 17 times that they played a road game with a total in the 52.5 to 56 range. While Claussen and Tate are gone, the cupboard is far from bare on the Notre Dame offense. The receiving corps is still strong, led my Michael Floyd. Last year's leading rushers Armando Allen and Robert Hughes are both back. Dayne Crist is still unproven at QB but I expect him to prove capable. Kelly has led "turn-arounds" at his previous stops and he always seems to get the most of his quarterbacks. Crist should benefit from facing an inexperienced Purdue secondary. The Irish players are behind their QB. TE Kyle Rudolph had this to say to the Chicago Tribune about Crist: "Even though he was behind Jimmy, whether it was in the weight room or the classroom or on the practice field, everybody always viewed Dayne as a leader." The Irish won by "only" three points at Purdue last season. They could have won by more though, as they were up by double-digits at halftime and had a solid edge in the stats department. The most recent game here at Notre Dame was in 2008. The Irish were laying only -2 or -2.5 points and they won by 17. Prior to that, in 2006, the Irish beat Purdue by 14 here. Kelly is well aware of that history and doesn't want to start his tenure by achieving less than previous Notre Dame teams have in the series. I expect Kelly to have his team ready and look for them to start the "new era" with a convincing double-digit victory. *10 |
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09-04-10 | Illinois +12.5 v. Missouri | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. This is the final of six games that these teams will have played at St. Louis. That suits the Illini fine as the Tigers have dominated them here. Indeed, Missouri has won all five meetings here, including three in the last three years. Last year was arguably the worst (and most embarrassing) loss in the series for the Illini. Illinois came in as the favorite, laying -6.5 points. Yet, despite being favored, the Illini found themselves down 30-3 before they knew what hit them. The Tigers would go on to win by a score of 37-9. That loss was the beginning of an awful 1-6 start for the Illini. Naturally, they'll be hoping for a much better start this season, while also looking to dish out some 'payback.'
This year, instead of laying points, the Illini find themselves as double-digit underdogs. Last year's result notwithstanding and with all due respect to the Tigers, I feel that's far too big of a swing in the pointspread. The Illini should be improved this season and they've certainly got no shortage of motivation. Yet, we're getting a swing of more than two touchdowns. Yes, the Illini return only 12 starters. However, they also lost only 16 letterman, the fewest lost in the Big-10. The Illini bring back four of their top five tacklers on defense and a rushing attack which ranked 17th nationally in 2009 with 200.4 ypg. True, the Tigers are an experienced and solid team. They're not without issues though and they've also really struggled as favorites of this size. In fact, the Tigers are a money-burning 1-7 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. Prior to last year's blowout, the previous three meetings in this series were all decided by 10 points or less. I look for this one to also be closer than most are expecting and am grabbing the double-digits with the revenge-minded Illini. *8 |
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09-03-10 | Arizona v. Toledo +16.5 | Top | 41-2 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on TOLEDO. The Wildcats will be a good team this season. However, with only four returning starters on defense, it may take some time for them to come together on that side of the ball. In my opinion, asking them to go on the road and win by more than two touchdowns, against a Toledo team that figures to have one of the better offenses in the MAC, is asking too much.
This is a big game for the Rockets. They've got a second year coach and they'll be looking at this game, a rare nationally televised affair, as a chance to show that their program is on the right track. It should be noted that Toledo has a history of success in 'big' home games. In fact, the Rockets are 5-1 since 2001, when hosting a team from a BCS Conference. Last season, they hosted Colorado. Getting roughly four points, they won outright by 16. Yes, the Rockets have to replace Aaron Opelt at quarterback. However, Austin Dantin got plenty of snaps last season and completed 66% of his passes. While the Rockets admittedly weren't very good defensively last season, they should be somewhat improved on that side of the ball this year. The Wildcats have lost eight straight road openers and they rarely play this far East. They've also played poorly on the road outside the Pac-10 in recent seasons. Indeed, the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road favorites and a money-burning 7-20 ATS the last 27 times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. This could be a high-scoring game and the O/U line has climbed all the way to 60 or 61. That's noteworthy as we find Arizona at 2-7 ATS (1-8 SU) the last nine times that it played with an O/U line ranging between 56.5 to 63. During the same stretch, the Rockets have gone a profitable 7-2 ATS (6-3 SU) when playing a home game with a total in the 56.5 to 63 range. The Rockets have had this game circled and I look for them to give the Wildcats a tougher challenge than many will be expecting. *10 |
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09-02-10 | Pittsburgh Panthers v. Utah Utes -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 82 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. Pittsburgh comes in with the higher ranking. In fact, the Panthers, ranked #15 in the country, are the highest ranked opponent that Utah has opened the season against. I feel that the Utes are favored for good reason though.
Last year was supposed to be the 'rebuilding year.' All the Utes did was go 10-3 and win their 9th straight bowl game. This year, the Utes enter the season in much better offensive shape than they did last season. Last year, there was a battle for the top QB spot. This year, Jordan Wynn comes is firmly entrenched as the starter. Wynn started the final five games last season and the offense produced nearly 35 points per game. Working behind an experienced (4 returning starters) offensive line, Wynn is complemented by an excellent running game (Senior tailback Eddie Wide rushed for 1069 yards and 12 TD and was a 1st Team All-MWC performer) and a deep receiving corps, led by senior Jereme Brooks (56 catches, 696 yards, 7 TDs). The Utes should have a solid defensive line, as they return three quality starters. While their secondary is unproven, they're athletic. The Panthers may not be able to exploit the secondary, as they have a QB making his first start. Pittsburgh is ranked for a reason. The Panthers have plenty of talent, including star running back Dion Lewis and receiver Jonathan Baldwin. However, unlike Utah, as mentioned, the Panthers don't have experience at the quarterback position. Tino Sunseri has a lot of potential and should have a decent year. However, making his first start at a stadium where the home team almost never loses is difficult. As Utah coach Kyle Whittingham had this to say: "Experienced quarterback doesn't guarantee success, but it is a great starting point..." While slowing down Lewis will not be easy, the Utes figure to load up against him and try to force Sunseri to beat them. Playing in this hostile environment, I won't be surprised to see a Pittsburgh miscue or two. The Utes are determined to show that they will be a factor again this year and that they are worthy of next season's conference move. They're 3-0 SU/ATS their last three against teams from the Big East and 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they played a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. While I certainly respect the Panthers, with the line having fallen from its opener, I expect the Utes to improve on those stats here. *10 |
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01-04-10 | Boise St v. TCU -7 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 201 h 16 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with TCU. With records of 12-0 and 13-0 this game marks the first time that two undefeated teams have faced each other in a bowl game that wasn't for the national championship. Some will argue that Boise is the team that's "happier" to be here. After all, the Broncos didn't ever really believe that they had a shot at playing for the national championship while TCU did. Additionally, the Broncos get a chance to avenge a loss that TCU handed them last season in the Pointsetta Bowl. That may be true. However, that doesn't mean that TCU will be any less motivated to go all out for the win.
As TCU coach Gary Patterson, the AP Coach of the Year, had to say: "Our whole deal is we're going to have to show the nation in this next bowl game that we belong, that we're one of the top two teams in the nation. You can still win the AP (championship), so that's what our whole goal is." I believe that will provide more than enough motivation for the Horned Frogs, as they look to make a statement that they are in fact the best team in the country. Yes, Boise State had an impressive 13-0 record, including a win over Oregon. However, that win vs. the Ducks came on the blue turf and in the very first week of the season - Oregon wasn't nearly as strong a team at that point. Give the Broncos credit but if they faced the Ducks later in the year and/or at a different venue, things could easily have been different. The Broncos' next "biggest" wins came against the likes of Fresno State and Nevada. They beat Fresno by 17 early in the year. While both teams were playing on a shorter than normal week, the Broncos were fortunate to catch the Bulldogs off a double-OT loss. Also, considering that Fresno lost 52-14 to Nevada six weeks ago and more recently were beaten by lowly Wyoming in its bowl game, Boise's "big win" starts to look less impressive. As for the win over Nevada, Boise was fortunate to face the Wolfpack on the blue turf. The Broncos won by 11, failing to cover the number. Given Nevada's 45-10 loss vs. SMU in the Hawaii Bowl, that victory also starts to look far less impressive. TCU, on the other hand, has faced a much more difficult schedule and has shown no mercy, regardless of the opponent. For starters, the Frogs recently played on the road, at Wyoming, facing the same team that beat Fresno. That resulted in a 45-10 destruction. The previous week, the Frogs absolutely dismantled Utah, winning by a score of 55-10. That's even more impressive, when considering that Utah just had its way vs. Cal in the Pointsetta Bowl. How about SMU, the team that crushed Nevada? TCU beat the Mustangs by a score of 39-14. Early in the year, the Frogs went on the road and won at Clemson while also winning by 16 at Virginia. Last but certainly not least, the Frogs played BYU on the road and won by a score of 38-7! For the season, the Frogs have outscored opponents by an average of 40.7 to 12.4. They've won each of their last seven games by a minimum of 27 points and by an average of 36.6 points! Looking at last year's bowl game and we find that TCU fell behind 13-0 and still rallied to win the game. The final score of that game was very close. However, a look at the stats shows that the Frogs actually dominated. They had a 28-15 edge in first downs and a 472-250 edge in total yards. That included a commanding 275-28 edge on the ground! Naturally, they also had a significant edge (36:07-23:53) in terms of time of possession. Everyone remembers the big win over Oklahoma a few years ago. However, not many realize that last year's loss dropped Boise to just 4-10 vs. ranked teams, since moving up to Division I-A in 1996. This year's TCU team is even better. Much better. Personally, I don't believe the same can be said of Boise. Both teams are excellent offensively (note that Boise's top receiver, Austin Pettis, who led the WAC with 14 touchdown, is questionable) but I believe TCU has a big edge on defense. Boise coach Petersen knows his team is in tough: "I think when we played those guys last year it was one of the better teams we had matched up with in a long time. I think TCU's gotten even better than last year and taken the next step in their progress with their program and what they're doing. It'll be a tremendous challenge ... for us to hang in there and play with those guys." I'll close my analysis with a post-game quote from last year's bowl game. Ian Johnson, Boise's longtime star running back, no longer with the team, said of the Frogs: "They had better athletes than we've ever seen. They played with so much heart. You didn't look over there one time and say, 'We broke them.' They knew they were going to come back and they believed in themselves the whole time." *10 Bowl GOY |
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01-02-10 | Arkansas v. East Carolina +7.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with EAST CAROLINA. The Pirates have been pretty good to me this season. Most recently, I played on them in their win over Houston. I feel that they're offering excellent value again here. The Pirates bring plenty of momentum into this game. They come in with a 4-game winning streak and with six wins in their last seven. The only loss during that stretch was vs. Virginia Tech. They were 5-2 ATS in those games and only missed going a perfect 7-0 ATS by two points. In the six wins, they averaged an impressive 38.5 points and 442 yards.
The Pirates have plenty of motivation. They're looking to become the first East Carolina team to win 10 games since way back in 1991. Additionally, they blew a 16-3 halftime lead in this same bowl last year, losing 25-19, so they'll be looking to atone for that setback. Coach Skip Holtz had this to say: "While one of our goals each year is to represent Conference USA in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl as a champion, having the chance to return to Memphis after our experience a year ago makes this trip even more special.." The Pirates are arguably a much better team than they were even last season. East Carolina QB Patrick Pinkney played well in last year's bowl, throwing for 296 yards and one touchdown. This year, he'll be aided by junior wide receiver Dwayne Harris, the MVP of the Conference USA title game and the conference's special teams player of the year. Last year, Harris missed the bowl, due to a foot injury. Note that Harris had nine receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown in the C-USA championship game and returned three kickoffs for touchdowns this season while averaging 27.4 yards. Like the Pirates, Arkansas can score with the best of them. The Razorbacks finished atop the SEC in scoring (37.3 points per game), passing (303.3 yards per game) and passing touchdowns (31). However, also like the Pirates, they've got some issues on the defensive side of the ball. Arkansas' suspect defense took an extra hit the school announced Thursday that starting linebacker Wendel Davis and safety Matt Harris - two of the team's top three tacklers - were suspended for violating team rules. Wide receiver (Marquis Wade was also suspended and is not expected to play.) Razorbacks' coach Bobby Petrino noted: "I'm excited about the preparation for the game and our team learning how to prepare for a big game..." I mention that quote due to the part about "learning to prepare for a big game." East Carolina doesn't have any "learning" to do. The Pirates have been terrific as underdogs under Holtz (21-11-1 ATS) and I look for them to continue their strong play in that role here. *10 Bowl Shocker GOY |
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01-02-10 | Connecticut v. South Carolina -3.5 | 20-7 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with SOUTH CAROLINA. This line has come down from its opener and I feel that's providing us with plenty of value here. Give the Huskies and coach Randy Edsall credit. They overcame the tragic death of their teammate and played hard and well all season. That said, I feel they're in over their heads here.
The Huskies admittedly ground game. Jordan Todman (1,201 yards) was second in the Big East with 14 rushing touchdowns, one more than Andre Dixon (988 yards). They've got very mediocre play at the quarterback position though. Zach Frazer, who regained the starting job when Cody Endres suffered a season-ending knee injury in October, has completed just 54.3 percent of his passes. He had a whopping nine interceptions in seven games, to go along with nine touchdowns. On the other hand, South Carolina has an excellent young QB. Stephen Garcia finished second in the conference with 2,733 passing yards, adding 17 touchdowns. That's more yards than former Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow of Florida, Greg McElroy of Alabama and one-time Heisman hopeful Jevan Snead of Mississippi. The Gamecocks also have the advantage on the other side of the ball. The Gamecocks allowed 20.4 points per game and 304.7 yards per game. On the road, they allowed 308.6 per game. Conversely, the Huskies allowed 25 points per game and 382.4. Those numbers climb well above the 400 mark (425.3) when the Huskies played on the road. Additionally, the game being played in the South (Birmingham) figures to favor the Gamecocks. Also, note that Steve Spurrier has plenty of history (and success) here. The 1966 Heisman Trophy winner played here while in the USFL in the 1980s, and led Florida to SEC title games here in 1992 and 1993. He commented: "We're fired up to be here..." The Gamecocks beat up on a solid Clemson team in their last game. I won with them in that game and I'm backing them here again. *9 Personal Favorite |
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01-01-10 | Cincinnati +12.5 v. Florida | Top | 24-51 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. These teams have a few similarities. Both had excellent seasons and both are ranked in the top five in the country. Also, both were in a BCS Bowl game last year. The Bearcats lost on New Year's Day. The Gators won the National Championship. Additionally, as you're probably aware, both teams are dealing with some 'unrest' in their coaching situations at the moment.
Cincinnati's Brian Kelly finished with an undefeated season and promptly resigned, heading for green pastures (he hopes) in Notre Dame. Kelly's assistant, Jeff Quinn will lead the Bearcats in this game, even though the Bearcats have already hired Butch Jones to coach next season. Admittedly, that's far from ideal. The Gators coaching issues are of a different variety but are also far from ideal. That's because Urban Meyer recently announced, out of the blue, that he was retiring. Then, almost immediately afterwards, he said he had changed his mind and was only taking a leave of absence. While he'll be on the sidelines for the game, the whole situation has to have been a major distraction. Once again, clearly that's far from ideal. while I'm sure some will disagree, personally, I think the Bearcats situation will be a little easier to deal with. At least the players know what's going to be happening next year - something nobody is entirely sure of in Florida. Ok, I've mentioned a few similarities. I believe there's one very important difference. That difference is that I believe Cincinnati is much "happier" to be here. For the Bearcats, this is about as big as it gets. They have a chance to beat last year's champs, earn a New Year's Day Bowl victory and finish the season undefeated. While they may have entertained dreams that things could have fallen into place for them to play in the National Championship game, they didn't ever really believe it, or at least knew it was a major longshot. The Gators, on the other hand, fully believed and expected that they'd be playing for the title. Unlike the Bearcats, they knew that they controlled their own destiny. All they had to do was beat Alabama and they were in, something they had been able to do the previous season. Speaking of Alabama, this game reminds me a lot of last year's Alabama/Utah game. Regulars will recall that I had Utah as my "Bowl Game of the Year" in last year's Sugar Bowl. Hailing from the powerful SEC and having been #1 for much of the season, the Tide were heavy favorites. However, they'd lost in the SEC title game (vs. Florida) and that loss had ruined their dreams of playing for the National Title. I expected them to be disappointed to not be playing for the title and for that to have an affect on their play. Utah, like Cincinnati this year, came in undefeated. Unlike the Tide, the Utes never expected to be playing for the national title. They were 'happier' to be there than the Tide. Of course, the Utes jumped out to a 21-0 lead and went on to crush the Tide by double-digits. While I won't be shocked to see Cincinnati imitate Utah and shock the mighty SEC team, it should be noted that the line has climbed from its opener, providing us with excellent value. With the Bearcats at 12-3 ATS the last 15 times they were listed as underdogs (4-0 SU/ATS L4) I'll gladly grab the generous points. *10 Main Event |
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01-01-10 | Florida State +3 v. West Virginia | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with FLORIDA STATE. I like the Mountaineers. They were good to me over the last decade and I went 2-0 on them in November, winning with them when they covered vs. Cincinnati
and then again when they beat Pittsburgh. That said, I don't think they're nearly as good a team as they were during the "Pat White era" and I don't feel that they should be favored against the Seminoles this afternoon. Not for a game at Jacksonville. Not for Bobby Bowden's last game. Yes, its true. This game will mark the end of Bowden's historic 44-year head coaching stint. In terms of a "great story," the game sets up perfectly for Bowden. Not only is the game being played at Jacksonville - the city of Jacksonville and the Gator Bowl Association has set aside more than three hundred tickets for former Florida State players, who will guide Bowden onto the field one final time - but the game is also being played against one of Bowden's first teams. In case you don't remember that far back (I don't!) Bowden coached West Virginia from 1970 to 1975. While I do believe that all the emotion will favor the Seminoles, I'm not just playing them because I believe this will make a great story. Records notwithstanding, I believe the Seminoles are every bit as talented as the Mountaineers. In fact, they may well have the better athletes. As far as the records, it should at least be pointed out that the Seminoles played a much tougher schedule. Yes, I'm aware that the Seminoles are still without QB Christian Ponder and also that his replacement Eli Manuel has been inconsistent. Still, Manuel has some games under his belt and great weapons around him. He's also had plenty of time to prepare. Note that the 'Noles are 4-1 the last five times they were coming off a bye. Also, keep in mind that Manuel was one of the nation's most heavily recruited quarterbacks coming out of high school two years ago. In other words, he's got plenty of natural talent. West Virginia's QB Jarrett Brown is certainly nothing special, averaging less than 180 passing yards per game. He relies on running back Noel Devine. However, Devine struggled down the stretch. He ran for over 100 yards in only one of his final five games. That was against Pittsburgh when he had 134 yards, thanks to an 88-yard TD run. Take away that one play and over his last five games, Devine ran for just 297 yards, averaging 3.4 YPC. With Devine struggling, the Mountaineers scored 21 points or less in four of their last five games, scoring 24 in the other. The failed to reach 30 in any of their last seven games. Here, they'll be taking on an FSU team that averages 30 per game. The Seminoles are a perfect 3-0 ATS the last three times they were a "neutral field" underdog of three points or less, winning all three of those outright. While this won't exactly be a "neutral field," I look for them to improve on those stats, sending Bowden out a winner. *8 Annihilator |
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12-31-09 | Tennessee +6 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with TENNESSEE. This is an interesting matchup featuring a pair of top quality programs. The Hokies had another good year, finishing with a 9-3 record. They bring some momentum into the game as they won their final four down the stretch. The Volunteers record of 7-5 isn't as good. However, like the Hokies, they bring some momentum into this game, as they won four of their final five.
Also, don't be fooled by the difference in records. Give Virginia Tech credit but also keep in mind that the ACC isn't nearly as tough as the SEC. The teams did have a common opponent, Alabama. The Hokies faced the Tide on a neutral field, here at the Georgia Dome. Alabama won that game by 10 points, 34-24. That score was somewhat misleading though, as the Tide held a commanding 498-155 edge in total yards. Tennessee, on the other hand, had to face the Tide at Tuscaloosa. The Vols lost by only two points and they outgained the Tide by nearly 100 yards, 341-256. The Vols defense was so dominant that they held Alabama without an offensive touchdown for the first time since 2007. Both teams score roughly the same amount of points. While the V-Tech defense was slightly stingier, as Alabama found out, Eric Berry and the Vols are also extremely capable on that side of the ball. Virginia Tech offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring knows the Vols defense is tough, saying: "Alabama managed four field goals. There it is right there. You understand what's in front of you." Frank Beamer had this to say of the Vols: "We played Alabama and I saw how they played Alabama, and they took it right to them. ... The bottom line is that we're playing one of the best, if not the best, teams in the SEC, and we understand that." The Vols also lost by only 10 on the road, at Florida. As Beamer stated: "They crank it up against good teams.." The Vols are 12-6 ATS against winning teams the past few years and 4-0 ATS the last four times they played with two or more week's worth of rest - the last time they played with two week's rest in between games was the Alabama game. The Hokies are always well coached. However, even with a win last year, they're still just 8-14 all-time in bowl games - Beamer is 7-9. The Hokies are 1-3 SU/ATS the last four times they played with a bye - most recently getting upset by UNC. They're 3-5 ATS the last eight times they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range and I look for them to have their hands full the entire way here. *9 Roast |
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12-31-09 | Stanford v. Oklahoma -10 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with OKLAHOMA. Stanford comes in with the higher ranking and the better record. However, the Sooners are favored for good reason. I played on USC last week and feel this game has several similarities. Like the Trojans, the Sooners are a powerful program, loaded on both sides of the ball. That's still the case, even with some injury issues. Also, like the Trojans, this is a team which didn't live up to its lofty preseason expectations. Additionally, like there was for USC, there's a lot of talk about the "demise" of the Sooners. I'm not buying it. I expected all the negative talk to cause the Trojans to play with a chip on their shoulder and I expect the same thing to happen here.
Stanford has a bigtime running back in Toby Gerhart. That plays into the strength of the Sooners though, as they're among the best in the country at stopping the run. The Sooners held Oklahoma State to 62 rushing yards in their finale and rank seventh in rushing defense, allowing 88.6 yards per game. If the Sooners can limit, or at least slow down Gerhart, while taking an early lead, something I expect will happen, the Cardinal will be forced to throw the ball more than it would like to. On that note, it should be mentioned that Stanford QB Andrew Luck, who passed for 2,575 yards with 13 touchdowns and only four interceptions, is questionable. He had pins removed following surgery to repair his right index finger. If he can't go backup Tavita Pritchard will get the call. While he's clearly the second option, Pritchard does have plenty of experience. Either way, regardless of who's behind center, the Cardinal will be facing an elite defense. The Sooners blanked the normally potent Cowboys completely in their last game (27-0) and they allow just 273.5 yards per game, also seventh best in the country. The secondary has recorded 16 interceptions while allowing only 11 passing scores allowed. The Sooners are 7-1 SU/ATS in the month of December this millennium, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five. They won those five games by an average of nearly 24 points. Four of the five victories came by two touchdowns or more and I expect another double-digit victory this afternoon. *10 Personal Favorite |
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12-31-09 | Air Force +5 v. Houston | 47-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with AIR FORCE. Its not often that a bowl game features a matchup which pits two teams playing for the third time in a little over a year. That's the case here though. Not only did these teams face each other last regular season but they also met in this very bowl last year. You may recall that Air Force won the regular season meeeting, while Houston avenged that loss when it really counted, winning the bowl. Note that BOTH games were decided by six points or less.
This year's matchup again features a pair of contrasting styles. The Falcons want to run the ball and chew up the clock. Houston, on the other hand, has a potent quick-strike passing attack. I feel that favors the underdog Falcons. Yes, Case Keenum had a terrific season. Here, he's up against an excellent pass defense though. In fact, Air Force ranked first in the nation in passing yards allowed with a mere 148.7 ypg. The Falcons finished 10th in total defense, giving up just 284.8 ypg. On the other hand, the Cougars were ranked 12th in their conference and 111th in the nation in run defense, giving up a whopping 213.1 yards per game. Keenum will throw plenty of passes again and he'll still likely have some pretty big numbers by the end of the game. However, I don't expect them to be as big as they have been against some other teams, as Air Force will keep him on the sidelines for long stretches, while chewing up the clock on the ground. While Air Force did have five losses this year, two of those came in overtime (vs. Navy and Utah) and they also lost by only three points at TCU - no other team played the Frogs that close. BYU was the only team that beat them by more than a touchdown. The Cougars were hoping for a bigger bowl and that should make the Falcons the 'happier' team to be here. As mentioned, both last year's games were extremely close. With the Falcons playing with revenge from last year's game and looking to snap a losing streak in this bowl (lost by 6 to Cal 2 here two years ago) I expect another one that comes down to the wire and feel that taking the points is the way to go. *8 annihilator |
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12-30-09 | Nebraska Cornhuskers v. Arizona Wildcats +3 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. These teams have several similarities. For starters, they're both excellent defensively. The Wildcats ranks 21st nationally, terms of yards allowed, giving up 315.8 yards per game. The defense has remained strong down the stretch, giving up two touchdowns or less in four of Arizona's last five games. For the season, the Wildcats are allowing just 23.2 points per game. The Huskers were even better on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, they ranked second nationally in scoring defense (11.2 ppg) and ninth in total defense (284.5 ypg).
That's one advantage for Nebraska. Still, I don't think its quite as big an edge as many others probably believe. The Wildcats have a bigger advantage on the other side of the ball. The Wildcats are averaging a respectable 407.5 yards per game. The Huskers, on the other hand, are averaging a measly 317.2 total yards per game. That number dips to a mere 268.7 on the road. Things didn't improve down the stretch either, as the Nebraska offense was held less than 270 yards in four of its last five games. Given their poor yardage stats, the Huskers were somewhat fortunate to average 24.5 points. The Wildcats come in averaging 29.7 More important than the stats, in my opinion, is the mindset of the two teams. Both teams were in position to go to a bigger bowl game and both let it slip away in devastating fashion. The Wildcats blew a lead in a very important game vs. Oregon. Had they won that, they would have had the inside track to the Rose Bowl. Considering that they beat Arizona State and USC after that loss, they could have easily been playing in that bowl. Still, the fact that they bounced back to beat those teams shows a lot about their talent and character. Also, they've had a lot of time to get over thinking about "what could have been." That's not the case for Nebraska. The Huskers didn't really think that they were going to a BCS Bowl. At least not until they were beating Texas with minutes left in the Big 12 Championship. The Longhorns hit a 46 yard field goal as time expired to snatch those dreams away though. That's a bitter pill to swallow - and, unlike the Wildcats, they haven't got to play any games to recover from their setback. Looking at a couple of other stats, we find that the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they were coming off a bye. During the same stretch, the Huskers were 2-3 ATS when they were coming off a bye. Arizona coach Bob Stoops had this to say of his team: "We're thrilled to earn the Holiday Bowl bid the way we did in the last couple weeks, and excited to be in San Diego. Our players have worked tremendously hard all season for a reward like this, and will work hard to show what Arizona and the Pac-10 Conference are all about." While I expect the Wildcats to win this game outright, its still worth noting that the line has moved, giving us a couple of extra points to work with. These teams last met in 1998. Coincidentally, that was also at the Holiday Bowl. The Wildcats won that one 23-20. I expect history to repeat itself as the Wildcats get the better of the Huskers for the second time in the past dozen years. *10 GOM |
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12-29-09 | UCLA v. Temple +4.5 | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with TEMPLE. Most will see a matchup featuring a big name school from the Pac-10 vs. a small name school from the MAC and expect a blowout win for the favorite. I expect a much different result. With the exception of a season-ending loss vs. Ohio, the Owls have been playing excellent football all season. In fact, before the loss to the Bobcats, they'd won nine straight. Granted, those wins were against teams which were weaker than the ones that UCLA had to contend with. Still, winning breeds confidence, something this team is loaded with. They've also shown that they're more than capable in the underdog role.
The last time the Owls were listed as underdogs, they won outright at Navy. Earlier in the season, they covered at Penn State. Looking back further and we find them at 9-3 ATS the last dozen times they were getting points and a profitable 14-6 ATS the last 20. Like the Owls, the Bruins also lost their final regular season. While that was against an elite team (USC) note that the Bruins are just 4-10 SU the last 14 times they were coming off a conference loss, including 1-4 SU/ATS their last five. With that loss, the Bruins are also 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS the last six times that they faced a team with a winning record. Its also worth noting that the Bruins have lost two straight and four of their last five bowl games. I feel that the venue (RFK Stadium) will prove to be a big advantage for the Owls. Coach Golden, a finalist for the 2009 George Munger College Coach of the Year Award, had this to say: "I think it's the best place for us to go this year. I really believe that. I think it's really important the first year. We have to learn how to do this. When you can go close to home, you eliminate a lot of travel, a lot of excuses, passports. The International Bowl was on the same day as our Kansas basketball game. We don't want to split our (fan) base. I think it's great..." I expect Golden to have his team fired up and won't be surprised when they pull off the outright upset. *8 Annihilator |
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12-28-09 | Texas A&M v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with GEORGIA. I mentioned yesterday how the favorites were finally starting to come around in the bowl games. While the earlier contests have no bearing on tonight's game, I feel that this will prove to be another good spot for a play on the favorite.
The Bulldogs come in with three victories in their last four games. Sure, one of those was a 38-0 win over Tennessee Tech - so we can throw that one out. However, they also won and covered vs. Auburn and then proceeded to knock off a solid Georgia Tech team in their finale. Conversely, the Aggies are 1-3 their last four games. They're getting a lot of respect due to having hung with Texas in their finale. Give them some credit for doing so. However, keep in mind that they still lost by double-digits. Also, they were just 1-4 SU/ATS on the road, most recently losing 65-10 vs. Oklahoma! In those five road games, they allowed an average of 47.8 points and 491 yards. Given that the Bulldogs should also score, note that Georgia is a profitable 18-3 ATS when scoring 35 to 41 points since 1992. Also, as impressive as the offense was vs. the Longhorns, note that Texas A&M is just 3-13 ATS in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. While I had Utah as my Bowl Game of the Year last season, the previous year I had Georgia. The Bulldogs came through for me by crushing Hawaii. Including that result, they're 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS their last 14 bowl games. During the same stretch, the Aggies were just 2-9 SU and 5-6 ATS. Note that the Aggies are also 7-14-1 ATS the last 22 times that they were listed as underdogs, including 1-4-1 ATS their last six. I believe the Bulldogs are the better team and look for them to show it here. *9 |
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12-27-09 | Kentucky v. Clemson -6.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with CLEMSON. Underdogs have had plenty of success so far this bowl season. Yesterday, started off with more of the same, as Marshall won outright vs. Ohio. However, things finally began to change after that. The afternoon game saw Pitt, a slight favorite, cover the closing number (UNC won vs. opening line) with favored USC covering in the nightcap. I feel that tonight will prove to be another good spot to back the favorite.
Both teams had similar records. The Tigers were 8-5. The Wildcats were 7-5. Given that Kentucky plays hails from the tougher SEC, one might assume that the Wildcats had the more impressive season. That's not the case though. I believe that the Tigers are stronger on both sides of the ball. Kentucky averaged 27.2 points and 336 yards. Clemson averaged 31.9 points and 365.5 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers allowed 21 points and 317 yards. The Wildcats allowed 22.8 points and 363.7 yards. Note that Clemson is also the healthier team. Most know that Kentucky's starting QB Mike Hartline isn't 100%. Fewer know that linebacker Sam Maxwell is expected to miss this game and/or realize the impact of his loss. Maxwell had a superb senior season, posting 80 tackles. Taking him out of the equation will make things much easier for Clemson star CJ Spiller to operate. The Tigers are a profitable 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. That includes a perfect 4-0 ATS mark their last four in that role. I expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit victory this evening. *9 roast |
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12-26-09 | Boston College v. USC -7 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with USC. The big question here is how "hungry" USC is. If properly motivated, the Trojans have the talent to win this game with relative ease. Of course, if the Trojans "don't show up," (go through the motions) than the Eagles are capable of upsetting them. I expect Carroll's crew to be absolutely motivated.
Speaking of Carroll, he's been a "master motivator" when having extra time to prepare his team. Indeed, the Trojans have gone a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games. Most recently, after having two weeks off in between games, the Trojans took care of a pretty good UCLA team, 28-7. That also includes a 38-24 win and cover over Penn State in last year's bowl game. Looking at the Trojans' previous two bowl games and we find that they dominated Illinois 49-17, while "upsetting" Michigan 32-18, in 2007. Naturally, the Trojans would prefer to be at a bigger bowl, however, I believe that Carroll will be use all the talk of the "demise of USC" to his advantage, using it to motivate his troops. Yes, the Trojans have some injury/suspension issues. They're still the more talented team on both sides of the ball. Give the Eagles credit for managing a relatively solid season. That's pretty impressive given what happened prior to the season - during their depressing offseason, the Eagles coach was fired, their best defender was diagnosed with cancer and their starting quarterback was kicked off the team. That said, the Eagles haven't faced teams of this talent level very often. They did win at home vs. Central Michigan - team from the MAC. However, their other two previous games against teams that will be playing in Bowls (UNC and V-Tech) resulted in 31-14 and 48-14 losses. With the line having fallen from its opener, note that the Eagles are a money-burning 1-4 SU/ATS the last five times that they were neutral field underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. I expect this one to be relatively one-sided. *10 Personal Favorite |
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12-19-09 | Wyoming +11 v. Fresno State | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 85 h 56 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with WYOMING. Many will favor Fresno in this matchup. The Bulldogs have a bigger name, they score a ton of points, and they also had a better record. Also, they lost here last season and the general feeling is that they'll be anxious to come away with a victory this season. While that's all true, there are a number of reasons why I feel that the value lies with the underdog Cowboys.
For starters, the Bulldogs may have a great offense but they also have a very suspect defense. Indeed, they ranked 81st in scoring defense at 27.8 points per game. They were also brutal against the run. Indeed, they ranked 111th in the country in rushing defense, allowing a whopping 212.4 yards per game. The Bulldogs also haven't won many blowouts recently. In fact, their last four victories have ALL come by 10 points or less. They won those games by 1 point, 2 points, 10 points and 4 points. That's an average margin victory of only 4.25 points. Of those four opponents (Illinois, LA Tech, Utah State, Idaho) only Idaho (7-5) finished with a winning record. The other three were a combined 11-25. In fact, the last opponent that the Bulldogs beat by more than 10 points was New Mexico State, a team which finished 1-11, and that was way back in October. Perhaps most importantly, even though they would surely like to win after last year's loss here, the Bulldogs can't be that happy to be here. Indeed, many players and fans felt that a return to the New Mexico Bowl is a slap in the face to the team and that they deserved better. They certainly had higher hopes, heading into the season. Wyoming, on the other hand, is thrilled to be in any bowl. Its true that the Cowboys aren't exactly one of the nation's elite teams. However, they were 8-3 ATS on the season, including 5-1 ATS on the road. They also showed plenty of resiliency, having won four games after trailing in the fourth quarter. Sure, Fresno faced the likes of Wisconsin, Nevada and Boise. However, Wyoming had to face an even tougher trio of top tier teams - the Cowboys dealt with BYU, TCU and Texas. They also went on the road and hung within a dozen points of a solid Utah team. It should also be noted that Wyoming has a plus-7 turnover ratio, while Fresno State enters the game with a minus-9 ratio. The Bulldogs are typically fairly solid in the underdog role under coach Pat Hill - who has been rumored to possibly be going elsewhere. However, they've gone an ugly 5-14-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were laying points. I believe that the Cowboys are happier to be here and I look for them to give the Bulldogs a much tougher game than many are expecting. *9 Opening Day Main Event |
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12-05-09 | South Florida +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with SOUTH FLORIDA. It's true that the Huskies have been a highly profitable team this season. However, it's also true that many of their pointspread wins came when they were listed as underdogs and/or when they were facing teams which were relatively weak. Tonight, however, they're a fairly significant favorite against a quality opponent. While I respect what the Huskies have done this season, I feel that this is asking far too much of them.
The betting public is quite down on South Florida these days, as the Bulls have fared poorly at the betting window and as they've struggled in recent weeks. However, a look at their recent schedule shows that they've had to face the likes of Pittsburgh (on the road), Cincinnati, West Virginia, Rutgers (on the road) and Miami. In my opinion, those teams are all more talented than UConn. Note that the Bulls beat West Virginia by double-digits while the Huskies lost vs. all four of those Big East teams (West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Cincinnati) and that they didn't play Miami. While the Huskies did earn an impressive win at Notre Dame, that's certainly no more impressive than South Florida's double-digit win at Florida State. Looking closer at the Huskies' schedule shows that they've only won four games by more than a touchdown all season. They beat Baylor by eight points back in September. While that was somewhat impressive, it should be noted that the Bears have the worst record in the Big 12 and are 1-7 their last eight games. The Huskies beat up on Rhode Island. The 1-AA Rams have lost 10 straight with nine of those losses coming vs. other 1-AA teams. The Huskies only other two "big wins" came against Syracuse and Louisville. Those are the two worst teams in the Big East. They're both 1-6 in Big East play and both 4-8 overall. In fact, those are the Huskies' only two Big East wins all year. Note that South Florida also beat both of those teams by double-digits. In other words, the Huskies have yet to beat a quality opponent by more than a touchdown all year. Now, they're being asked to do so vs. a South Florida team which boasts a respectable 7-4 record, 3-3 in the Big East. While the Bulls are disappointed that they no longer have a chance to acheive a double-digit win season, they know that they can have a winning Big East record with a win here. They also know that a victory here would greatly enhance their bowl prospects. If they lose, they could easily be heading back to the St. Petersburg Bowl - barely a trip for them at all. However, a win could land them in the Meineke Car Care, International or Papajohns bowl. Any of those options would be preferable to a return trip to the St. Petersburg Bowl. The Huskies do possess a good running game and as Coach Leavitt told the Tampa Tribune: "They're going to try to run the ball right at us. I don't think there's any question about it..." Knowing this, I expect Leavitt to load up the line of scrimmage to try and force QB Frazier to throw the ball. Note that he's got just seven touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions on the season. The Bulls, on the other hand, should enjoy success through the air. QB Daniels admittedly has been inconsistent at times and he struggled vs. Miami. However, he's also produced more than 300 yards of combined offense (336 vs. WVU and 345 vs. Louisville) twice in his last four games. Here, he'll face a porous UConn secondary which is allowing more than 250 passing yards per game. I expect him to have a big game. It should be noted that UConn will be without linebacker Greg Lloyd, as he got hurt vs. Syracuse. The son of the former Steelers' star is a key part of the defense and his loss is significant. Note that the Huskies have only been a home favorite in the -7.5 to -10 range once this season - and they lost outright. The Bulls have won three of five on the road this season and they've won four of six all-time meetings with the Huskies, including a 17-13 win last year. Looking at those two wins by the Huskies and we find that they both came by a touchdown or less. They won by five here in 2005 and by seven in 2007. That was somewhat of a fortunate victory for the Huskies though. Not only USF get down to the 1-yard line in the final minute but they outgained the Huskies by a 440 to 353 margin. Yes, the weather will be cold. However, that hasn't stopped the Bulls from playing the Huskies tough here in the past. Given the Huskies' tendency to play close games, I'll gladly grab the generous points. However, I won't be at all 'shocked' when USF scores the outright win. *10 Shocker GOY |
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12-05-09 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson +1 | Top | 39-34 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. I played against Clemson last week. One of the reasons that I did so was that I thought the Tigers might get caught looking ahead to this week's big title game. That seemed to be the case, as they were blown out at rival South Carolina. There won't be any looking ahead here though and I expect them to bounce back with a MUCH better effort.
I successfully played on Clemson when they faced Georgia Tech back in September. While the Tigers lost by three points, they covered the spread as 5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets jumped out to a 24-point lead in that game. However, the Tigers battled all the way back with 27 straight points to take the lead. I believe that they've improved since then and I believe that the big September comeback will give them the confidence to know that they can beat this team, even if they do happen to fall behind. After that game, C.J. Spiller was quoted as saying: "I'm proud of the way we played against a top 15 team on the road. We kept thinking we would come back and get back in the game. You have to believe. You have to have faith." Of course, that was at Atlanta while this afternoon's rematch will be played at Tampa. Big difference. Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson also believes that the Tigers are better than they were earlier in the season. He was quoted as saying: "Clemson is a very talented football team that's very physical. I think they're probably more efficient offensively [than in the first meeting between the two teams]. Their quarterback has gotten better as the year has gone on, although he played pretty good against us the last time. C.J. Spiller is a dynamic special team's guy and they try to make sure he gets the ball. Then you have Jacoby Ford who is a really good player, so they have a lot of weapons on offense." In the first game, Clemson QB Kyle Parker, a redshirt freshman, was making only his second college start. Now, he's got 2,294 passing yards and 19 touchdowns under his belt. Both teams can score plenty of points. Behind their powerful rushing attack, the Yellow Jackets average an impressive 35 points per game. The Tigers aren't that far behind though, as they average 31.7 per game. Note that Clemson, which has a much more balanced offense, actually averaged slightly more points in Conference play. The Tigers averaged 33.5 points in conference games, compared to the Jackets' 32.6. The Tigers have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball and I expect that to ultimately be the difference. Clemson allows just 19.5 points per game. Georgia Tech allows 24.1. Clemson allowed 301 yards per game and 4.55 yards per play. On the other hand, G-Tech allowed 24.1 points per game and an average of 5.9 yards per play. With a more balanced offensive attack and a superior defense, I expect Spiller and co. to improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. *10 Top Conf. Championship game |
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12-05-09 | West Virginia v. Rutgers -2 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on RUTGERS. I've had a good handle on the Mountaineers the past few years and they've continued to treat me very well lately. Just over a month ago, I played against them when they were blown out by South Florida. More recently, I backed the Mountaineers when they covered at Cincinnati two weeks ago and then I played on them again in last week's victory over Pittsburgh. Off that big win, I feel that this will be a good spot to switch things up and to play against them.
While they've been excellent at home, the Mountaineers are just 1-3 SU when playing on the road. The lone victory came vs. Syracuse, the worst team in the Big East. Here, they'll be facing a revenge-minded Rutgers team which is 4-2 at home. In their last game here, the Knights slaughtered South Florida by a score of 31-0. The Mountaineers score 26.8 points per game and allow 20.7. On the road, they allow 27. The Knights average 28.8 points per game and allow just 16.8. At home, they're permitting a mere 15.5 points and 291.5 yards per game. The Knights are 4-0-1 ATS their last five games played in December. Conversely, the Mountaineers are 2-7 ATS their last nine December games, including 0-4 ATS their last four. I expect the Knights to avenge last season's loss and improve to 4-0 ATS the last four times that they played a home game with line in the +3 to -3 range. 8* |
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12-05-09 | Cincinnati v. Pittsburgh +2 | 45-44 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with PITTSBURGH. I successfully played against the Panthers last week. That was on the road vs. a highly motivated West Virginia team though and I felt that the Panthers could easily get caught looking ahead to this afternoon's huge game. They're back home now though and there certainly won't be any looking ahead now.
While the Bearcats are perfect everywhere, the Panthers are every bit as good here at home. They're 6-0 here on the season. They're outscoring opponents by an average of 32.3 to 14 here, while outgaining them by a commanding 440.7 to 254.3 margin. The Bearcats certainly have a potent offense. However, they're defense has really struggled in recent weeks and I feel that the Panthers will have the advantage in this area. Last week, the Bearcats gave up 476 yards to Illinois. Over their last three games, the Bearcats are allowing an average of 34 points. They only returned one defensive starter from last season and that seems to be catching up with them of late. The Bearcats beat Pittsburgh at Cincinnati last season. However, the Panthers won when the teams met here the previous season and they're 7-1 in the series all-time. This is Wannestedt's best team and I look for them to score the minor upset, improving to 9-3 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as underdogs. *8 |
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12-05-09 | Houston v. East Carolina +3 | 32-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with EAST CAROLINA. Conference USA has been good to me again this season and I've won with the Pirates a few times. I feel that this will be another good spot to back them. While Houston has the better overall record, East Carolina has the better record in conference play. The Pirates were 7-1 in CUSA play. The Cougars were 6-2. That has the Pirates playing at home, as this game will be played at Dowdy Ficklen Stadium. That's significant.
The Pirates were 5-1 here this season and they're 10-1 their last 11 games here. They're outscoring opponents by a 27-18 margin here. The Cougars are a respectable 4-2 on the road and they're averaging a whopping 39.8 points in those games. However, they're also allowing an ugly 35.8 points in those games and an obscene 478.2 yards. Note that the Cougars lost their most recent road game and that they won their previous road game by only two points. The Pirates were 10.5 point favorites when they hosted the Cougars early last season. Yet, the Cougars scored the upset. This year, even though East Carolina returned more starters (they brought back 16, Houston brought back 12) and is arguably stronger than last season, we're still getting some points to work with. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing us with further value. The Pirates are 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as underdogs. Looking back further and we find them at 13-7 ATS their last 20 in the underdog role. The Cougars are just 11-15 ATS their last 26 in the favorite role. That includes a money-burning 3-9 ATS mark the last dozen times that they were favored on the road. The Pirates are 8-2 the last 10 times that they faced an opponent with a winning record. Playing in front of the home fans, I expect them to find a way to earn the victory here. *8 |
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12-04-09 | Ohio +14 v. Central Michigan | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with OHIO. I won with Buffalo in last year's Mac Championship game. Not many were giving the Bulls much of a chance, as they were underdogs of greater than two touchdowns. Yet, they went on to record a convincing 42-14 outright victory, thanks in large part to having capitalized on turnovers. With the line having climbed from its opener, I feel that the underdog is also providing us with excellent value in this year's game.
Like Ball State last year, there is no denying that Central Michigan is talented. The Cardinals entered last year's game with a perfect 12-0 record. This year, the Chippewas come in with a 10-2 overall record and an 8-0 mark in the MAC. That's impressive. However, Ohio isn't far behind. Indeed, the Bobcats have quietly gone 7-1 in MAC play and 9-3 overall. After winning three straight close ones, the Bobcats pounded Temple by a score of 35-17 last week. Considering that the Owls had won nine straight and that they'd won their previous two games by a combined score of 103-30, dismantling them in such easy fashion was quite an accomplishment. While the Central Michigan offense is admittedly potent, the Ohio offense has been getting stronger and stronger as the year progresses. The Bobcats have scored 75 combined points the past two weeks and have now scored 27 or more in three straight games. Defensively, the Bobcats are holding opponents to just 21.3 points per game. They're also allowing opponents to convert on only 35 percent of their third down chances. I mentioned how turnovers helped the Bulls in last year's MAC Championship. Well, it's worth noting that the Bobcats have forced a whopping 35 turnovers this season. That includes 19 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries. Conversely, while the Chippewas do possess an excellent defense, they've only forced 18 turnovers. These teams played a very close game against each other last season. Ohio led 14-10 at halftime and Central Michigan won by a score of 31-28. The Bobcats had an edge in time of possession and total yards. The Bobcats, who are 14-6 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points, are much better this season. I look for them to give the Chippewas all they can handle for the second straight year, improving to 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they faced a team with a winning record. 10* |
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12-03-09 | Arkansas St. v. Western Kentucky +6 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with WESTERN KENTUCKY. Its been a disappointing season for both of these teams. Western Kentucky is 0-11. Arkansas State is 3-8. The Red Wolves have arguably been a bigger disappointment though. They brought back 15 starters from last year and were expected to contend for the Sun Belt title - at least, they hoped to. On the other hand, the Hilltoppers didn't return as many starters (12) and knew that they were in a transition year. While they surely didn't expect to be winless, they also knew they weren't going to contend for the league title.
Not living up to expectations can be hard on a team and I believe that the Red Wolves are already looking forward to getting the season finished. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, should be highly motivated to snap their winless streak, particularly as they are playing at home. Desperate to earn a victory, I expect them to be the 'hungrier' team this evening. While the Red Wolves have the better SU record, the Hilltoppers have been better at the betting window. They're 5-5 ATS in their 10 lined games. The Red Wolves, on the other hand, are a money-burning 2-8 ATS in their lined games. Their only SU win in November came last week and it was a four-point victory, as a 7.5 point favorite. With that result, they're now 0-5 ATS their last five games. Conversely, the Hilltoppers are still fighting hard and are 3-0 ATS their last three games. Their last two losses came by an average of only 4.5 points. While the Hilltoppers winless record is well documented, the Red Wolves are every bit as bad on the road. They're 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their six road games. They were beaten 38-14 by Middle Tennessee State in their last road game and lost 35-18 at Florida Atlantic in their previous game. Note that was the same team that only beat the Hilltoppers by six last week. Looking back further and we find the Red Wolves at an awful 2-17 SU and a money-burning 5-14 ATS their last 19 road games. While Arkansas State may have more talent, the bottom line is that they are so bad away from home that they don't deserve to be favored by this much. They're an awful 1-10 ATS the last 11 times that they were listed as road favorites, losing nine of those games outright. That includes a 0-4 SU/ATS mark the last four times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points with the home underdog Hilltoppers. *9 Top Sun Belt play |
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11-28-09 | Arizona v. Arizona State +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 32 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with ARIZONA STATE. Having gone 2-0 with them this year, I like and respect the Wildcats. In addition to having won with them when they defeated Stanford, I won with them in last week's cover vs. Oregon. However, that figures to be an extremely difficult game to 'bounce back' from and this week, I'll be going against them for the first time this season.
For those who didn't watch or hear about last week's game, the Wildcats let a fourth quarter lead slip away and then lost a heartbreaker in overtime. If they could have won that game, they would have controlled their own destiny, in regards to winning the Pac-10 Title. Instead, its the Ducks who now control their own destiny. That can be a tough pill to swallow for college kids, particularly when they gave absolutely everything that they had and know that they could have easily come away victorious. Note that the Wildcats have been poor favorites over the years. They're a money-burning 33-57 ATS the last 90 times that they were laying points. That includes a 0-2 SU/ATS mark the last two times that they were listed as road favorites of four points or less, suffering outright losses at Oregon State and California. Regardless of last week's results and/or any bowl implications, naturally, both teams would love to defeat their instate rival. However, I feel that the Sun Devils will be a little "hungrier." Not only are they playing their home finale but they're also looking for some 'payback.' That's because the Wildcats defeated them at Tuscon last year and that result killed the Sun Devils' chances for becoming bowl eligible. This is the Sun Devils' biggest game of the season and a win here would take some of the sting out of a disappointing year. The Wildcats have a very capable passing attack. However, the running game is the 'straw that stirs the drink.' For the season, they've run the ball an average of 36 times per game, gaining an average of 181 yards. The ground game may struggle here though and without a decent running attack, throwing the ball will also likely become more difficult. For starters, the Sun Devils are limiting opponents to just 107.8 rushing yards per game and for an average of only 3.3 yards per carry. Additionally, the Wildcats are banged-up at the running back position. Nicholas Grigsby is Arizona's top tailback but he injured his shoulder last week against Oregon and is listed as doubtful. Even if he goes, he won't be 100%. Meanwhile, Keola Antolin is also questionable. That means the Wildcats may be down to their third-string back which could spell some trouble vs. the Sun Devils' stingy rushing defense. While they've had some trouble at Tuscon, the Sun Devils have had much better success vs. Wildcats here in Tempe. In fact, they've won three straight games against the Wildcats here. Overall, the home team is 5-1 the last six in the series. Despite their current losing streak, the Sun Devils have remained very competitive at home. They're 3-0 ATS their last three games here and a profitable 5-1 ATS their last six home lined games. While I'll grab the points, I expect the Sun Devils to rise to the occasion and score the outright upset. *10 Top 2009 Underdog |
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11-28-09 | Mississippi v. Mississippi State +7.5 | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with MISSISSIPPI STATE. The Rebels are a strong team and they've been on quite a roll. They do have three losses though, as they've lost vs. Alabama, South Carolina and most recently Auburn. They won their last game but that was by only two points. Granted, all four of those games came against fairly powerful teams. Still, my point is that they're not unbeatable.
The Bulldogs haven't had as good a season. However, they aren't pushovers either. They've beaten Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State. Additionally, they've hung within 11 points of Florida, LSU, Houston, and Georgia Tech. They lost those games by an average of eight points. In other words, they're capable of playing tough vs. elite teams. I expect the Bulldogs to be extremely motivated here. Not only is this their final game of the year and a huge instate rivalry, but they also have bigtime 'revenge' on their minds, as the Rebels crushed them last season. That was at Oxford though and games here at Starkville have been much closer. In fact, the Bulldogs have won four of the last five meetings vs. the Rebels here. Overall, the home team has won five straight in the series. Note that three of the last five meetings in the series have been decided by eight points or less. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. They're also 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) the last six times that they were coming off back to back losses. I expect them to bounce back and give their rivals all that they can handle here. 7* SEC Best Bet |
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11-28-09 | North Carolina v. North Carolina State +6 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with NC STATE. The Tar Heels have had a better season than the Wolfpack and they're currently the hotter team. However, in my opinion, the Wolfpack are better than their record indicates. They're well-coached and I expect them to rise to the occasion and for them to be at their best here. Not only is this a huge rivalry and their home finale, its also their final game of the entire season.
While the Tar Heels admittedly have a great defense, their offense is less than mediocre. That makes laying points on the road a dangerous proposition. They're scoring only 24.1 points per game on the season and they're only averaging 296.0 total yards per game. They're only gaining 3.6 yards per rushing attempt and they've got just as many turnovers (23) as they do offensive touchdowns. (NC State averages 30.5 points and 399.2 yards per game.) The Tar Heels are 1-3 ATS the last four times that they were laying points on the road and 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they played a road game with a total in the 49.5 to 52 range. They're also 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) their last six games against a team with a losing record. After a 31-27 victory in 2007, the Wolfpack beat UNC convincingly (41-10) last season. At the time, the Tar Heels were ranked #25 in the country. Note that the Wolfpack are 9-4 their last 13 home finales. They're also 7-1 ATS the last couple of seasons, when coming off back to back losses. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *8 ACC Best Bet |
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11-28-09 | Clemson v. South Carolina +3 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with SOUTH CAROLINA. The Gamecocks have had some trouble on the road. However, they've been terrific here at home. They're 5-1 in six games here. The lone loss came against Florida (no shame in that!) and the Gamecocks covered the spread in that one. That includes an outright win over a strong Mississippi team. I successfully played on the Gamecocks in that one and feel that they offer excellent value once again.
Despite a slow start, the Tigers have had an excellent season. In fact, they've won six straight games and are on their way to the ACC Title game. Naturally, they'd love to keep their roll going and beat their rival in the annual Palmetto State "Braggin' Rights" game. Indeed, this is a huge rivalry, one of the longest and most intense in the entire nation. That said, the Tigers have already clinched a berth in the ACC Title game (vs. G-Tech next week at Tampa) and that may cause them to do some 'looking ahead.' Note that Clemson, which failed to cover vs. Virginia last week, is just 6-11 ATS the last 17 times that it was favored by four points or less. While the Tigers still have a bigger game on deck, this is the Gamecocks' home finale. Many many consider beating Clemson in this game even bigger than winning their bowl game. Either way, its a huge deal for the Gamecocks and their fans, particularly as Clemson has dominated the rivalry in recent seasons. While the Tigers have the better record, it should be noted that playing in the SEC, naturally, the Gamecocks face much tougher competition than do their rivals from the ACC. As mentioned, the Gamecocks have been great at home. They're off a bye and this is their home finale. They lost the last meeting vs. Clemson here by two points, 23-21, as the Tigers hit a field goal at the buzzer. This could very well be another close one, so I'll grab the points. However, I look for the Gamecocks to come away with the outright win, improving to 5-1-1 ATS the last seven times that they played a home game with an o/u line in the 42.5 to 45 range. *9 High Noon Massacre |
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11-27-09 | Nevada +14 v. Boise St | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with NEVADA. With a perfect record, Boise State has had another great season. That said, the Broncos haven't faced a quality opponent since September. That'll change this evening and I expect them to have their hands full the entire way.
The Wolfpack shook off a poor start and enter this game with eight straight victories. They've scored greater than 60 points four times and they've got three players (Colin Kaepernick, Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott) with greater than 1000 rushing yards on the season. That's the first time in NCAA history that a team has achieved that feat. Despite their impressive run, the Wolfpack find themselves listed as double-digit underdogs. I feel that offers us excellent value. Looking at last year's meeting and we find that the game was decided by just seven points, a 41-34 win for the Broncos. The Broncos were leading that one 24-3 but the Wolfpack battled all the way back to make a game of it. In fact, they had a game-tying pass knocked down in the end-zone. Even though they came short, the fact that they were able to erase that big deficit should provide the Wolfpack with some confidence here. While last year's game was at Reno, the Wolfpack also gave the Broncos all they could handle the last time that the teams faced each other here on the Blue Turf. In fact, that memorable game went all the way to four overtimes. The Broncos were favored by -25.5 points for that game but only won by two points, 69-67. I expect this one to also come down to the wire with the Wolfpack improving to 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they faced a team with a winning record. *8 Friday Night Roast |
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11-27-09 | Pittsburgh v. West Virginia +1 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA. I played on Pittsburgh when these teams faced each other last season. That game was at Pittsburgh, yet the Mountaineers were slight favorites. I felt that provided excellent value with the home team. The Panthers finished with a 23-13 edge in first downs and won by a score of 19-15. This year's game is being played at Morgantown, yet its the Panthers who are currently very slight favorites, with some shops at pick'em. Once again, I feel that the value lies with the home team.
With a lengthy winning streak and a 9-1 record, the Panthers are certainly worthy of our respect. That said, I also believe that Mountaineers are a lot better than many seem to think. They're particularly tough at home. Indeed, they're a perfect 6-0 here on the season (Pitt is 3-1 on the road) and are now 17-2 in 19 games here since the beginning of 2007. Of course, one of those losses came against these same Panthers. Many of you will remember that one - the Mountaineers certainly do. West Virginia was favored by 29 points and a win would have put them in the National Championship game. The Panthers rarely play on turf. They're 6-6 SU the last 12 times that they did so. During the same stretch, the Mountaineers were an impressive 21-3 SU when playing on turf, including 7-1 their last eight. Note that both teams are off a bye. West Virginia is 5-1 SU the last six times that it was coming off a bye. During the same stretch, Pittsburgh is 3-3 when coming off a bye. Stats and records aside, I feel that this one will come down to "which team wants it more." I expect West Virginia to be that team. As mentioned, the Mountaineers are playing with 'double-revenge' from the losses the last two years. They'd dearly like some payback from the big upset here two years ago. Additionally, this is the Mountaineers home finale and they'd love to give the home fans a final victory. On the other hand, the Panthers have a MUCH bigger game still on deck. That's because they play Cincinnati in their home finale. Of course, they'd still love to win their third straight "Backyard Brawl." However, no matter what happens here, win or lose, they'll still be playing for the Big East Title next week. Look for that to lead to the revenge-minded Mountaineers being the 'hungrier' team and for that to be the difference. *10 Motivational Mismatch |
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11-21-09 | Oregon v. Arizona +6 | Top | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. Both these teams have been pretty good to me again this season. I won with the Ducks on Opening Night of the season (38 point winner on the 'under') and have gone 5-2 when playing their games overall. While I did win with the Ducks when they beat both Utah and Cal, most recently, I successfully played against them when they were upset by Stanford on 11/7. I haven't been involved with nearly as many Arizona games. In fact, I only bet on one game that the Wildcats played in all season. That was on 10/17, when they knocked off Stanford. I feel that this will be an excellent spot to again back the Wildcats.
Most are aware that this is a huge game for the Ducks. Indeed, if they can win here and follow it up by winning the 'Civil War' (vs. OSU on 12/3) then they'll capture the Pac-10 crown and advance to the Rose Bowl. The Wildcats have flown under the radar a bit more though and many may not realize that they are also in control of their own destiny. If they can win this game and also win their final two games (at ASU and at USC) then they'll be the team which wins the Pac-10 and plays in the Rose Bowl. Granted, even if they do win this one, winning back to back road games won't be easy. Still, the fact remains that this game is arguably every bit as important to Arizona, as it is to Oregon. Some may be surprised to find the Wildcats in this position. They shouldn't be. The Wildcats pounded the likes of UCLA, California and Arizona State last season, nearly defeating USC. They followed that up with a double-digit win over BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, finishing at 8-5. That record could easily have been better as all five losses came by 10 points or less. This year's team returned 13 starters but lost just 13 lettermen, the second fewest in the Pac-10. Conversely, Oregon lost 20 lettermen and returned only nine starters. With the Ducks favored by a handful of points in the road, one would expect them to have a significant advantage on at least one side of the ball. However, that's not really the case. Oregon does have slightly better overall numbers in terms of points scored and allowed. However, the Wildcats have gained more yards and allowed less. Additionally, a closer look reveals that Arizona's home numbers are actually quite a lot better than Oregon's stats on the road. Arizona is 5-0 at home, going 3-1 ATS in lined games. Oregon is 2-2 on the road, both SU and ATS. Looking at the last few seasons and we find the Ducks at 8-7 ATS in their 15 road games. During the same stretch, the Wildcats have gone 12-4 ATS in their home lined games, 14-4 at home overall. This season, the Ducks are averaging 29.2 points and 360.2 yards of offense on the road. The Wildcats are averaging 34.2 points per game at home and 497.4 yards of offense. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats are allowing 16.2 points and 277.6 yards per game at home. Conversely, the Ducks are allowing 24.7 points and 368 yards on the road. With last year's game being played at Eugene, the Ducks jumped out to a huge lead against the Wildcats. However, Arizona stormed all the way back and pulled within three points, before eventually losing by 10. Looking at the time of possession and we find that the Wildcats had a whopping 41:46 to 18:14 advantage, in terms of time of possession. Again, that was at Oregon. The previous year, when the teams met here at Arizona, despite being listed as heavy underdogs, the Wildcats won 34-24. The Ducks were #2 in the country at the time and that loss killed their BCS dreams. The Ducks looked pretty good in beating Arizona State last week. That was at home though. Their most recent road game was the outright loss vs. Stanford. Including that result, they're just 3-10-2 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. In addition to their perfect home record, the Wildcats, who lost at Cal last week, are 6-3 SU/ATS the last nine times that they were coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. Playing their home finale, with much at stake, I expect them to bounce back with a massive effort. *9 Pac 10 Main Event |
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11-21-09 | Kentucky v. Georgia -9.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with GEORGIA. With the Wildcats off back to back victories, this line has remained in the high single-digits. I feel that provides us with solid value on the home favorite, one which I feel has superior talent, matchup advantages and plenty of motivation.
With identical 6-4 records, this is a very big game for both teams. The Bulldogs are playing their home finale though, which should provide even further inspiration. Kentucky's strength on offense is its running game. However, that plays right into the strength of the Georgia defense. The Bulldogs are very tough against the run (held Auburn to 115 rushing yards on 38 carries last weekend, limiting the talented Ben Tate to a season low 67) while being somewhat vulnerable against the pass. The Wildcats don't have the QB to take advantage of that weakness though. Indeed, true freshman Morgan Newton has just 402 passing yards in five games and Kentucky's passing offense ranks 112th nationally at just 147.7 yards per game. While I'm assuming that he'll play, it should be noted that Kentucky's dynamic weapon Randall Cobb isn't 100% and is currently questionable. Even if Cobb is 100%, I expect the Wildcats to have some trouble moving the ball. The Bulldogs have owned this series. They're 11-1 the last 12 games in the series and 49-11-2 all-time. The Wildcats haven't beaten them here in Athens since the 1970s. They won by 11, as -7 point favorites, the last meeting here. That brings them to 3-0 ATS the last three meetings here and 5-2 ATS in seven series meetings here since 1995. The Bulldogs won ALL seven of those games by a minimum of nine points and I expect another double-digit victory here. *8 Top Nov SEC Fav. |
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11-21-09 | Connecticut v. Notre Dame -6 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with NOTRE DAME. The Huskies are coming off a bye last week. Prior to that, in addition to having tragically lost a teammate, they'd been through an exhausting stretch of games. One could argue that they bye came at the perfect time. However, after having lost a close one to Cincinnati and three straight "heart-breakers" overall, I feel that the extra week may only serve to give them more time to hang their heads and think about "what could have been." This is a team which had been riding on emotion for some time and sometimes after having the 'ride come to an end,' it can be a bit difficult to get back the same intensity. The Huskies also know that they've still got a pair of Big East home games left on tap, including a winnable game vs. Syracuse, which may take a little bit of the urgency out of winning this one.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, should absolutely be playing with a sense of 'urgency.' This is the final home game for the Irish and their finale comes on the road vs. a good Stanford team. Off back to back losses, they know that if they don't win here that they could easily be looking at losing four straight to end the regular season. That would almost certainly spell the end of the Charlie Weis era. Regardless of whether or not this does prove to be Weis' last home game as coach of the Irish, I fully expect him to have his team extremely motivated. Last year, the Irish were upset in their home finale. Favored by nearly three touchdowns vs Syracuse, they were winning by 13 points in the fourth quarter. However, they let the Orange come all the way back and suffered an improbable 24-23 loss. Weis has described that as one of the worst feelings of his coaching career and he absolutely does NOT want to go through the same thing again, particularly if this really is his final game here. He doesn't want to go out like here and he doesn't want his seniors to lose their final game here. He described last year by saying: "...those seniors walked out of here for the last time with a loss. It was a gut-wrenching feeling that stayed with you for some time." Even with that result, note that the Irish are still 7-2 their last nine home finales. I 2007, they won 28-7 as a -6.5 point favorite. In 2006, they won 41-9 as a -29 point favorite. While the Huskies do have a formidable ground attack, the Irish have a significant advantage in the passing game. Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen has completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,053 yards and 21 touchdowns against four interceptions. Conversely, UConn's Zach Fraser has completed only 51.2 percent of his passes for 815 yards with four touchdowns against seven interceptions. Facing a UConn defense that gave up 711 yards in its last time, including 480 through the air, I expect Clausen, Tate and co. to have a big game. The Huskies have been keeping it close all season but this time, I don't expect them to be able to keep up. *10 Personal Favorite (Top Non-Conf. Favorite) |
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11-20-09 | Boise St v. Utah St. +23 | Top | 52-21 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. I successfully played on the Aggies way back on Opening Night vs. Utah. At the time, I said that I felt the Aggies would be an improved team this season and that the Utes were coming into the season over-valued. Utah won. Utah State covered.
That was a sign of things to come as the Aggies have been a profitable team ever since. In fact, they're 7-2 ATS in their nine lined games including a perfect 5-0 ATS when listed as underdogs, 6-0 ATS if counting them as an underdog vs. LA Tech. (Utah State opened as an underdog in that game but closed as a favorite). The Aggies have a capable quarterback and a very solid running attack, led by Robert Turbin. Turbin ran for nearly 200 yards last week. He should be able to help keep the Broncos' potent attack off the field better than some other teams have done against Boise. The Aggies went on the road and stayed within 18 of both Utah and BYU. They also lost by only four points at Fresno State and by only eight points at Texas A&M. At home, they've been even more competitive. In addition to their home wins vs. LA Tech and San Jose Sate, the Aggies lost by only three points vs. Nevada here. Looking back and we find that they're 5-1 SU their last six games here with the three point loss to Nevada representing the only loss. Looking back still further and we find them at a perfect 8-0 ATS their last eight lined home games. Yes, Boise State is a powerful team. Yes, the Broncos have a number of blowout wins under their belts and yes, they'll be looking for another one here. However, they've dominated the Aggies over the years and it may be easy for them to get caught looking ahead to next week's showdown vs. Nevada. As evidenced by this season's results, this is an improved Utah State team from years gone by though. They returned 16 starters and have come together under their new coach. This is their home finale and they'd love to show the home fans that they can compete with one of the top programs in the country. I look for them to give the Broncos a tougher game than many are expecting, improving to 4-0 ATS in their lined home games. *10 Top Friday play for Nov. |
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11-18-09 | Buffalo U v. Miami Ohio +3.5 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with MIAMI. This line climbed significantly from its opener. I feel that provides us with plenty of value on the home underdog. Both teams have had disappointing seasons. In Miami's case, it was kind of expected to be a down year, as the Redhawks were in a rebuilding phase. However, the defending MAC Champion Bulls were hoping for a lot more. Knowing they are officially out of bowl contention, I expect it to be tough for the Bulls, who have another game still to go, to "get up" for Miami. On the other hand, playing their season finale, I expect the Redhawks to be extremely motivated.
The Redhawks are also catching the Bulls at the right time, in terms of injuries. The Bulls will be without star receiver Naam Roosevelt. All the senior wideout did last week was catch eight passes for 165 yards and three touchdowns, set the Buffalo record with 3,551 career receiving yards. He also won the MAC East Division Offensive Player of the Week award. While running back James Starks has missed his entire senior season, the Bulls are also expected to be without running back Ike Nduka. Additionally, well you won't likely hear as much about it, the Bulls will be without two-year starting offensive tackle Andrew West, a 6-6, 302-pound senior who is serving a one-game suspension from both Buffalo coach Turner Gill and the MAC office for unsportsmanlike conduct. Note that the Bulls are just 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were laying points. With a 5-2 ATS record in their past seven games, the Redhawks have been a lot more competitive than their overall record indicates. They lost badly vs. Bowling Green last time out, but had previously played three quality games in a row. They're looking to avenge a loss at Buffalo last season and to go out on a winning note. They're 5-0 SU when hosting the Bulls since 1999 and I look for them to earn at least the cover here. *9 best bet |
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11-15-09 | East Carolina +4 v. Tulsa | 44-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with EAST CAROLINA. This is a rematch of last year's Conference USA Title game. Tulsa was a big favorite for that game but East Carolina won outright. The Golden Hurricane are favored once again. However, this is arguably an even stronger ECU team, while the same can't necessarily be said of Tulsa. Note that the Pirates returned 16 starters from last year's team while the Golden Hurricane returned 13, including only five on offense.
Both teams lost their last game. The Pirates' loss may be a little easier to bounce back from - they fell 16-3 vs. a good Virginia Tech team on 11/5. Tulsa, on the other hand, lost a 46-45 heartbreaker vs. Houston on 11/7. The Golden Hurricane have now lost four straight games, giving up at least 27 points in all four of them. They're now 24-40 ATS their last 64 lined games, after suffering two or more consecutive SU losses. On the other hand, prior to the V-Tech loss, the Pirates had won back to back games and four of their last five. The Golden Hurricane are allowing 33.7 points and 523.3 yards over their last three games. Conversely, the Pirates are allowing 16 points and 372 yards over their last three. Last year's game was close the whole way with the score being tied 17-17 at halftime. The Pirates defense forced numerous turnovers and held Tulsa to its lowest number of total yards all season. I expect this one to also be very close and look for the Pirates to improve to 11-3-3 ATS the last 17 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. *8 Main Event |
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11-14-09 | Notre Dame +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with NOTRE DAME. Last week's loss was a costly one for Notre Dame as it very likely cost them any shot at a BCS Bowl. That will have many playing against them here, as they face a tough Pittsburgh opponent. However, I expect the Irish to bounce back with a huge effort. Charlie Weis is most certainly on the "hot seat." He knows that and so do his players. A win over a Top 10 opponent this week would help to temporarily quiet all the talk. I expect Weis to have his team ready.
Weis was quoted as saying: "They're ready for their dog and pony show. They're all ready for their major celebration when Notre Dame rolls into town, and we're going to go there with the intent of spoiling it." While I respect the Panthers, I also feel that their schedule has been a little on the "soft" side. They've got three very tough games coming up though. After Notre Dame, they play the "Backyard Brawl" vs. West Virginia and thats followed by a clash with the reigning Big East champs, the currently undefeated Bearcats. With those two huge conference games on deck, I feel that they may get caught looking past the Irish. That will prove costly, as Notre Dame is still a lot more dangerous than many people realize. Some of you will probably recall last year's game between these teams as it was a real "thriller." In fact, it wasn't decided until the fourth overtime period, with Pittsburgh pulling out a 36-33 victory. While the Panthers have admittedly improved since then, I believe that the same can be said of the Irish, last week's loss notwithstanding. The Irish, who have a bigtime passing attack, won their last game here at Heinz Field by a 42-21 score. Overall, the're 8-3 SU/ATS their last 11 in the series, including 4-1 SU/ATS their last five here at Pittsburgh. In fact, the Panther have only beaten the Irish twice this millennium and both those victories came by a field goal. I expect this one to also come down to the wire with the Irish improving to 7-2-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. *9 Non-Conf. Main Event |
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11-14-09 | Stanford v. USC -11 | Top | 55-21 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 11 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with USC. This selection has several similarities to a basketball selection that I made last Saturday. Like the Trojans are this afternoon, the team which I was betting on (Dallas) was laying points at home. The Mavericks entered that game (vs. Toronto on 11/7) having recently been defeated by the Hornets. On the other hand, the Raptors entered that game having just blown out those very same Hornets.
I began that writeup by saying: "If the Hornets beat the Mavericks and the Raptors beat the Hornets, then shouldn't the Raptors be able to beat the Mavs? Not necessarily. In fact, that type of logic doesn't hold much weight when it comes to handicapping NBA games. Situations and matchups are entirely different for each individual game. In tonight's case, I believe those matchups will favor the Mavs. Laying -7.5 or -8 points, Dallas would go on to win that game by a score of 129-101. The Mavs had a season high in points and their 62.4% shooting percentage was the highest by a Raptor opponent in more than six years. The situation sets up similarly as the Trojans recently lost badly to the Oregon Ducks while the Cardinal just thumped those very same Ducks. Many of the betting public are likely going to be thinking. "Well, if Stanford can beat Oregon and Oregon can beat USC..." As we saw in the above basketball example (and numerous examples on the gridiron every week) that type of logic doesn't always work out too well. Many of you know that I had a big play on Stanford last week, so I certainly respect the Cardinal. Give them credit for playing a great game. However, that situation set up very nicely for them. The Cardinal, who were coming off a bye and in a big "revenge spot," were playing at home and they caught Oregon coming off a huge win, in a "letdown" spot. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, its the Cardinal playing on the road and in a potential letdown spot, having just cracked the Top 25 for the first time since 2001. Should Stanford lack the intensity it brought to last week's game, the Trojans aren't likely to show any mercy. They certainly won't take the Cardinal for granted. Not only did the Trojans see what Stanford just did to Oregon but Pete Carroll will make sure they ware well aware that Stanford beat them here two seasons ago - one of the bigger upsets in college football history. I already said that I respect the Cardinal. They've got a very good quarterback and they're having a strong season. The offense is off a very impressive outing. Still, the defense played poorly (note that Clinton Snyder, the team's leading tackler was recently lost for the season) giving up 570 yards and 42 points and the Trojans bring an entirely different type of athlete to the table. Even in a "down year," they're fully loaded with talent. They know that they'll start to look a whole lot better if they can blow out the Cardinal, the team which just handed "mighty" Oregon its first Pac-10 loss. The Cardinal don't have much speed on defense and I expect that to prove to be their downfall as the game progresses. Last week's results (Stanford's big win and the fact that USC won but didn't cover at ASU) and the fact that everyone still remembers Stanford's big win here have helped to keep this line relatively low. Keep in mind that the Trojans were laying -23.5 points at Stanford last season (they won by 22) and that they were laying a whopping -39 points when the teams played here in 2007. Looking back further and we find that the Trojans were laying a minimum of -19.5 points in each of the last seven meetings. They won six of those games with five of the victories coming by greater than three touchdowns. Despite failing to cover last week, the Trojans are still 5-3 ATS (8-0 SU) in November the past few seasons. Looking back further and we find them at 14-6 ATS and 20-0 SU their last 20 games played in November. Clearly, this is a team that has enjoyed success at this time of the year. While last week's win may not have been impressive to many, I like the fact that USC bounced back with a win and that the Trojans did it with defense. I believe that its the type of win they can build momentum from. The Cardinal did the Trojans a huge favor last week as USC now has a shot at the Pac-10 title again. As Pete Carroll reminded the media after last week's win: "You guys have amnesia. Every year it ain't over till it's over. It's a hard conference. It ain't over yet." I believe the line is generously low and I expect the Trojans to build off last week's victory by delivering a convincing double-digit victory. *10 GOY |
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11-14-09 | Nebraska v. Kansas +4 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with KANSAS. Nebraska comes off an upset win over Oklahoma while Kansas lost vs. rival Kansas State. I believe that those results have helped to provide us with excellent value on the home underdog.
Off last week's big win, I feel that the Huskers are ripe for a letdown. Give them credit for beating Oklahoma but lets also keep in mind that they only had seven first downs in that game while the Sooners had 23. Nebraska was outgained by a 325-180 margin and went just 1 of 14 on third downs. Also, keep in mind that they'd gone 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) their previous three games, including an outright loss to Iowa State. While the Huskers have shown that they can play great defense, the offense is very mediocre. They're averaging only 25.7 points and 347 total yards. While the Jayhawks have struggled recently, they still possess a potent offense, averaging 30.8 ppg and 431.6 total ypg. QB Todd Reesing may be small but he's thrown for more than 2600 yards while completing better than 64% of his passes. He's got some excellent weapons around him. Lets also remember that the Jayhawks have still won 16 of their last 20 here at home. The Jayhawks won 76-39 the last time they hosted the Huskers. They've again got the better offense and they're playing at home. I expect them to play with a real sense of desperation here and won't be surprised when they score the outright victory *10 Best Bet |
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11-14-09 | Clemson v. North Carolina State +8 | 43-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with NC STATE. This line has climbed from its opener. I feel that getting more than a touchdown provides us with excellent value with the home underdog. Clemson is off a big win vs. Florida State and is playing well. However, the win over the Seminoles came at home. All three of their road games have been decided by a field goal, two of them resulting in SU losses.
After the big win over Pittsburgh, NC State went into a bit of a funk. The Wolfpack are playing better again now though as they beat Maryland by seven last week (38-31) and lost by only three at Tallahassee the previous week. The Wolfpack scored 38 points last week and produced 482 yards of offense. For the season, they're averaging a very respectable 417.2 yards per game. Clemson averages 362 per game. QB Russell Wilson is hitting better than 60% of his passes and already has thrown for 24 touchdowns. He's also got four rushing touchdowns to go along with nearly 300 rushing yards. The Wolfpack did allow 31 points last week. However, only two of those touchdowns came vs. the defense, as Maryland scored on an interception return and also a kick return. Overall, the Wolfpack allowed just 270 total yards while giving up only 14 first downs. In other words, the defense was a whole lot better than the final score indicated. While Clemson is 1-3 ATS the last four times it was listed as a road favorite in the -7.5 to -10 range, the Wolfpack are 15-8 ATS their last 23 in the underdog role. Off last week's big win and still fighting to get to six wins, I look for them to give the Tigers a much tougher game than many are expecting and won't be surprised if they score the outright upset. *7 High Noon Massacre |
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11-13-09 | Temple v. Akron +4 | 56-17 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with AKRON. I successfully played against Temple last week. The Owls were laying 17 points and they only won by two. While I respect the Owls, I feel that they're over-valued once again and that this will prove to be a difficult spot.
The Owls, who will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks, have now seen back to back games decided by three points or less. Their next two games come against Kent State and Ohio, the two schools directly behind them in the MAC East Division. In other words, it wouldn't be difficult to imagine them looking past "lowly" Akron. The Zips have admittedly had a disappointing season. However, I believe that they're more talented than their record indicates and they put it all together last week. In that game, they beat Kent State outright, winning 28-20 as +3.5 point underdogs. After having played three straight on the road, they're playing their second straight home game here. Last week's victory will provide some confidence and I expect them to be fired up to play a Friday night home game on "ESPNU." While the Owls covered at Eastern Michigan earlier, they're still 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road favorites. During that stretch, the Zips have gone 5-3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Its also worth noting that the Zips are 15-5 SU their last 20 home games played in November and that each of their last two November home losses have come by only three points. I expect this one to also come down to the wire. *7 Friday Feast |
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11-13-09 | West Virginia +10 v. Cincinnati | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with WEST VIRGINIA. With a perfect 9-0 record, the Bearcats are having another great year. Regardless of whether its Collaros or Pike running the show (Kelly said Collaros would start again) there is no doubt that they have a very talented offense. However, I believe that the Cincinnati defense is somewhat suspect. That was certainly the case last week when they gave up 322 yards and 35 points in the second half vs. UConn. The Bearcats hung on to win that one by a score of 47-45. Now, they'll face an even tougher opponent.
While the Huskies are 1-4 in Big East play and 4-5 overall, the Mountaineers are 3-1 in the Big East and 7-2 overall. They've won five of their last six and know that they absolutely need this game if they want to have a shot at the Big East Title. In addition to needing this game to keep their keep their Big East title hopes alive, the Mountaineers come in feeling that they have a score to settle. They were the 2007 Big East champs before the Bearcats took that title away from the last year. Additionally, the Bearcats beat them in overtime at Morgantown last season. Note that the Mountaineers returned 12 starters from that team while the Bearcats returned only nine. Last season's result notwithstanding, the Mountaineers still hold a commanding 14-2-1 lead in the head-to-head series. The Mountaineers are 12-8 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs, including 5-3 ATS in that role since 2005. They're 3-0 SU/ATS here since 2002. Two of those games were decided by five points or less and I look for this one to also come down to the wire. *9 Main Event |
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11-08-09 | Nevada v. San Jose State +14 | Top | 62-7 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with SAN JOSE STATE. The Wolfpack are rolling. With a 1-6 record, the Spartans are not. That's given us a very large number to work with, one which I feel is providing plenty of value with the home underdog. Its true that San Jose State has been a disappointment this season. However, with the exception of a 4-point loss vs. Idaho, that hasn't been entirely the Spartans' fault, as they've played an extremely difficult schedule. Indeed, they started the season by facing USC, Stanford and Utah. Both those Pac-10 games were on the road, too. Their most recent two games also both came on the road and were against the likes of Fresno State and Boise State. In other words, the fact that they lost those five games isn't all that big a surprise. Note that they did play Utah tough in their lone home game out of those five, losing by 10. In fact, they were leading or tied in the second quarter with USC, Boise, Fresno (Idaho) and Utah.
Despite the poor record, this is considered to be one of the better San Jose State teams in recent seasons and coming into the season, they had actually had hopes of challenging for the WAC title. While those hopes were obviously a little far-fetched, my point is that this team has more talent than its record indicates. Note that the Spartans have yet to lose a home game by more than 10 points. On the other hand, note that the Wolfpack have yet to win a road game by more than three points. Looking at Nevada's three road games and we find a 35-0 blowout loss at Notre Dame, a 35-20 loss at Colorado State and a 35-32 win at Utah State. The Wolfpack blew out the Spartans 41-17 at Reno last year. However, the game was much closer when these teams faced each other here in 2007. In fact, San Jose State scored an outright 27-24 victory, erasing a 24-10 halftime deficit. The Wolfpack played at home last week. Listed as 29 point favorites, they only beat a bad Hawaii team by 10 points. Note that they're 3-9 ATS the last dozen times that they were coming off a SU win vs. a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the Spartans come in at 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range. Playing a very rare Sunday home game, I expect the Spartans to rise to the occasion and give their guests all they can handle. *9 Top Nov. WAC play |
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11-07-09 | Colorado State v. UNLV | Top | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. Its true that the Rams vs. the Rebels isn't one of this week's more highly anticipated matchups. I believe that the home team is providing us with solid value though.
Both teams have identical records and both were outclassed last week. Colorado State lost by 18 vs. Air Force while UNLV was crushed at TCU. (The Rams were also blown out there.) The Rebels have done more recently though as they won their game two weeks ago, recording a convincing 34-17 victory at New Mexico. The Rams, on the other hand, have lost six straight, the last three of them all coming by two touchdowns or more. Despite their recent problems, this is a big game for both teams, as both need to win out to get to .500 and six victories. UNLV Coach Sanford had this to say: "We're into a whole new month. It's almost like a whole new season for us starting with Colorado State. He went on to note: "The No. 1 thing is there's a lot of hope. We have a lot of hope. But we can't get caught up in all three games. We're all about Colorado State. It's about one game at a time. It's all about getting this first one." Cliches aside, Sanford's Rebels were in an almost identical spot last season and he was able to get them to respond positively. Coming off a blowout loss to TCU, they needed to win their final three games to become bowl eligible. While they fell short of that goal, they did bounce back from the TCU loss by winning (and covering) each of their next two games. Sanford's players know that he's on the "hot seat" and I expect them to respond positively to last week's loss, as they did last season. Yes, Colorado State has dominated this series recently and won again (41-28) last year. However, that was at Fort Collins and the Rebels were winning late in the fourth quarter. In fact, the Rams didn't score the go-ahead TD until there were nine seconds remaining - they then added a TD on the final play of a the game, off a turnover on a UNLV lateral. In other words, the game was extremely close. This year, in addition to playing on its homefield, UNLV is arguably more talented than it was last season. I don't believe the same can be said of the Rams. Note that the Rebels returned more starters (14 vs. 12) than did the Rams and that they also returned a high 70% of their lettermen from last season. Yes, the Rams are likely to have some success on the ground. However, I expect the Rebels to have plenty of success through the air. They've got the third ranked passing attack in the MWC and the Rams have the worst passing defense in the conference, 110th worst in the country. I expect star receiver Ryan Wolfe to have another big game and for Sanfords' Rebels to find a way to earn the important victory. *9 Personal Favorite |
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11-07-09 | TCU v. San Diego State +24.5 | 55-12 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with SAN DIEGO STATE. Playing against the Horned Frogs is admittedly kind of scary. They're very good on both sides of the ball and they just dismantled UNLV by a score of 41-0 last week. That said, that result has helped to inflate this week's line and I believe that the situation favors the underdog.
Yes, TCU wants to keep blowing teams out in order to impress the pollsters. However, as mentioned, the Frogs are off a huge 41-0 win, which happened to be their homecoming. Prior to that, they played a massive game vs. BYU. Off that big win, they did a great job of avoiding a "letdown" vs. the Rebels. However, that was at home and now they travel to the West Coast to take on the lightly regarded Aztecs. With another huge game (Utah) on deck, I feel that it will be tough for them to bring the same level of intensity that we've seen in recent weeks. That's particularly true as the Utes have beaten them three times in a row and as the Frogs seem them as the only remaining obstacle between them and a perfect regular season. The Aztecs, on the other hand, should be fully focused. Not only are they looking to avoid getting blown out in their home fans but they're looking to show how far they've come as a program. They're a much improved team from the onle that went 2-10 last season and which lost by a 41-7 score at TCU. Yet, now they're playing at home and they're getting the exact same number of points that they got on the road last season. I feel that provides us with excellent value. The Aztecs, which returned 15 starters (2nd most in conference) from last season and lost only 18 lettermen (fewest in conf.), are 3-1 their last four games. The lone loss came vs. BYU and the Aztecs hung within 10 in that game, losing 38-28. In fact, all four of their losses have come by less than 20 points. Two wins in their final four games will make them bowl eligible. While winning outright vs. the powerful Frogs is unlikely, I still expect them to go all out in an effort to try and do so. While the Frogs are 1-5 ATS the last six times that they played a road game with a total falling in the 42.5 to 49 points, the Aztecs are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs. They're also 2-0 ATS the last two times they hosted the Horned Frogs. I look for them to provide a much tougher test than most are probably expecting. *7 Motivational Mismatch |
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11-07-09 | LSU v. Alabama -7 | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with ALABAMA. With many backing the underdog Tigers, this line has come down from its opener. I feel that has provided us with plenty of value with a very powerful Alabama squad.
The Tide were fortunate to escape their last game (vs Tennessee on 10/24) with a victory. Many are likely holding that against them here. However, I feel that was just the "wake up call" that they needed. They've had an extra week of preparation time since then (LSU last played on 10/31) and the fact that they nearly lost should allow Saban's instructions to get through loud and clear to them. Make no mistake. The Tigers are a strong team. They're very well-coached and they've got a great defense. However, Alabama is also extremely well-coached AND the Crimson Tide's defense has been even better than the LSU defense. The Tide rank fifth in scoring defense, second in rush defense and fourth in total defense. Additionally, Alabama has a better offense. LSU averages 26.4 points and 325 total yards. Alabama averages 31.7 points and 410 yards, numbers that are even better at home. As good as the Tigers have been in recent years, they're still an ugly 5-14-3 ATS in conference play the past few seasons. Its also worth noting that they're a money-burning 0-7 ATS their last seven games played in the month of November. Prior to the "squeaker" vs. the Vols, every Alabama win had come by double-digits. They won by six at LSU last season and I expect them to win even more convincingly here on the home field. *8 Blowout GOW |
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11-07-09 | Oregon v. Stanford +7 | Top | 42-51 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with STANFORD. A few weeks ago, I successfully played against the Cardinal in their loss at Arizona. At the time, the Stanford was on the road facing a Wildcat team which had "payback" on its mind from a one-point come-from-behind loss the previous season.
The Cardinal find themselves in the opposite role here though. This time, they're at home and this time, they're the ones facing a team which beat them in the final seconds the previous season. While the Ducks are clearly proven that they are worthy of our respect, I feel that the schedule/situation sets up perfectly for the Cardinal to have its 'revenge.' Looking back to last season and we find that the Cardinal had a 28-27 advantage with just over two minutes remaining. The Ducks took over and drove the length of the field, scoring the winning TD (and 2 point conversion) with only six seconds remaining. The Cardinal, who would have been bowl eligible if they had won that game, haven't forgotten. (Coincidentally, they can become bowl eligible with a win here.) They returned 17 starters from last year's team while the Ducks returned only nine. Its more than just last year though, as the Cardinal have lost seven straight to the Ducks. (They also led in the game 2 years ago) That's a lot of built up anger. Stanford has 13 fifth year seniors and those guys know that this will be their last chance to beat the Ducks. Of course, handing Oregon its first Pac-10 loss would be that much sweeter. Note that Stanford, which had a bye last week, avenged a blowout loss to Arizona State its last game. Like the Ducks, the Sun Devils had owned Stanford in recent seasons. In fact, Arizona State had won the previous three meetings by a combined score of 120-23. The Sun Devils discovered that this is a much improved Stanford team though as the Cardinal throttled them by a score of 33-14. Including that victory, Stanford is now a perfect 4-0 at home on the season. The Cardinal won those games by an average score of 33.2 to 15.2 and outgained their opponents by an average margin of 412-276. While the Ducks are 3-9 ATS the last dozen times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range, during that stretch, the Cardinal have gone 9-7 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. That includes a 2-0 ATS mark in that role the past couple of seasons. I expect the Cardinal to provide the Ducks, who may be ripe for a "letdown" off the USC win, with by far their toughest test in Pac-10 play. In fact, I won't be at all surprised if they score the outright upset and spoil the Ducks' dreams of a national title. *10 Top Nov. "Revenge" play |
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11-06-09 | Boise St v. Louisiana Tech +21 | Top | 45-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with LA TECH. As usual, the Broncos are the class of the conference and come in with a lofty national ranking. In fact, they're 8-0 and ranked #5 in the country. Clearly, they deserve respect. That said, this LA Tech team has been steadily improving in recent years. They're much tougher at home and I believe that they're currently under-valued.
While they have yet to win on the road, the Bulldogs remain perfect at home. Granted, none of those opponents were anything like Boise State. In fact, they've been quite weak. Still, the Bulldogs have been about as dominant as possible in those games. They're 3-0 here, outscoring opponents by an average score of 40-8.7, while outgaining them by an average margin of 515.7 to 237. Looking back further and we find that the Bulldogs have won 10 of their last 11 here. The Bulldogs have also played the Broncos much tougher here than on the road in recent seasons. Last year, they were blown out 38-3 on the blue turf. However, when the teams met here the previous season, the Bulldogs hung within two touchdowns, losing by a 45-31 margin - a game that was tied 17-17 at halftime. I believe that this year's LA Tech team is even stronger. Its no secret that the Bulldogs could use running back Daniel Porter and receiver Phillip Livas, both of whom are currently questionable, in the lineup. With this being such a "big game," I believe that both offensive stars will do everything possible to be ready. Either way, I expect a highly motivated effort from the entire team. Yes, the Bulldogs lost a tough one last week. However, they're well coached and have been great at bouncing back from conference losses. In fact, they're 6-1 ATS the last few seasons when coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. Over that stretch, they've gone 6-2 ATS their last eight against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are MUCH tougher than the Broncos' last road opponent (Hawaii) but are getting very nearly as many points. I look for them to keep things a lot closer than many are expecting. *9 Main Event |
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11-05-09 | Eastern Michigan +21 v. Northern Illinois | 6-50 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with EASTERN MICHIGAN. I believe that last week's results have helped to provide us with terrific line value here. The Eagles were blown out while the Huskies won by 17. However, the Eagles blowout loss came vs. an SEC team(Arkansas) and the Huskies' win (vs. Akron) was actually close the entire way.
Off that victory, the Huskies are now being asked to win by three touchdowns. Yet, they've only beaten one 1-A team (Western Mich.) by more than 17 points all season. The Huskies do have a powerful running attack. However, they've got problems at the QB position and their passing attack isn't very good. That doesn't tend to lead to many huge blowouts. Prior to the win over Akron, their previous two games were decided by just six combined points. Despite their winless record, the Eagles have played some competitive games. Prior to the blowout loss vs. Arkansas, they lost by just two points vs. Ball State. While that was at home, earlier in the season, they went on the road and lost by only three at Northwestern. Note that they were 22 point underdogs in that one. Having been embarrassed 37-0 at home by the Huskies last season, the Eagles should bring some added motivation into tonight's game. Note that they won outright the last time that they played here at Northern Illinois. Additionally, note that the Eagles brought back 17 starters (most in the MAC) from last year's team while the Huskies brought back 11. Those 17 returning starters haven't forgotten last season. The Eagles are 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the 14.5 to 21 point range. They've scored 27 points in back to back games and I look for them to score enough to hang within the number this evening. *7 Roast |
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11-05-09 | Miami Ohio +17.5 v. Temple | Top | 32-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with MIAMI OHIO. The majority of the betting public would prefer to back the stronger team. They'll generally only take points with an underdog if that underdog is at home and/or is perceived to be a 'good' team. That's not the case here.
Not only is Miami Ohio on the road but the RedHawks also come in with an ugly 1-8 record. Therefore, its not that surprising to see the line on favored Temple climb significantly from its opening number. I believe that has given us excellent value with the visiting underdogs. Yes, the Red Hawks have just one victory. However, that victory game in their last game(31-24 vs. Toledo) so they've got some positive momentum for this game. Additionally, despite the record, they've been quite competitive for six straight games now. They went 4-2 ATS over those games. Only one loss came by three touchdowns (lost by 24) and that was at Cincinnati, vs. a very powerful Bearcats team. Three of their last five losses have come by 10 points or less. Prior to the victory over Toledo, Miami Ohio lost by only five points vs. Northern Illinois. Bringing an impressive six game winning streak to the table, the Owls are to be respected. However, they just became bowl eligible with a big win over Navy last time out and I feel that they may start to get a little over-confident here, particularly when facing the "lowly RedHawks." As impressive as their season has been, the Owls haven't been blowing out teams. In fact, none of their last five victories has come by more than 16 points. For all the RedHawks problems, they're still 6-2 ATS their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 22-13 ATS their last 35 lined games against winning teams. The last meeting between these teams here was decided by a touchdown and I look for this one to also be closer than many are expecting. *9 Thurs GOW |
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11-01-09 | Marshall +7 v. Central Florida | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with MARSHALL. The Golden Knights are coming off their biggest road win in school history and they could really use another victory here. That said, that road win came vs. a terrible Rice team, which is now 0-8. The Knights haven't won two in a row all season long and this figures to be a MUCH tougher contest.
Like its hosts, Marshall is also coming off a convincing victory. Indeed the Thundering Herd crushed UAB by a score of 27-7. The defense stepped up when needed, limited the Blazers to just 2 of 12 on third down conversions. Since an embarrassing loss at Virginia Tech in Week 2, the Herd have allowed an average of only 14.6 points per game. They've got a very solid defensive front seven. Speaking of that V-Tech loss, its one of just three losses that the 5-3 Herd have on the season. The lone loss in league play came by four points vs. East Carolina, arguably the best team in the Conference. I won with the Pirates in that game and I know that Marshall gave them all they could handle. The only other loss came vs. West Virginia. That adds up to two losses vs. powerful teams from BCS Conferences and one very close loss vs. last year's league champion, a team which also defeated UCF. Marshall's other three conference games ALL resulted in double-digit victories. The Marshall offense was also clicking last week. In fact, for the first time since 2003, the Herd had their QB (Anderson threw for 315 and had 2 TDs) throw for more than 300 yards and their running back (Darius Marshall ran for 133 + a TD) rush for over 100, in the same game. While its a big game for UCF, its also a very big game for Marshall. For starters, a win will make the Herd bowl eligible for the first time since 2004. Additionally, they'll be looking to avenge a 30-14 home loss that the Knights handed them last season. Marshall was favored by -7.5 points for that game and returned 16 starters from that team. They haven't forgotten. The Herd are 8-4 ATS their last dozen games against teams with a winning record and they're 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. They won three of those games outright and I believe that they've got an excellent shot of pulling off the upset again here. *9 top Nov. CUSA play |
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10-31-09 | Georgia Tech v. Vanderbilt +12 | Top | 56-31 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with VANDERBILT.I'm taking the points with VANDERBILT. While I respect Georgia Tech, I feel that getting double-digits with the home underdog here is very generous. Yes, the Yellow Jackets bring an excellent record and a lofty ranking into today's game. It's also true that the Commodores are just 2-6. However, as you're probably aware, playing in the SEC, the Commodores face much tougher conference opponents. They've already faced the likes of LSU, Ole Miss and Georgia (and have Florida on deck). Last week, the Commodores very nearly won at South Carolina. While the Yellow Jackets have defeated some of the better teams in the ACC, those teams still aren't quite as tough as the teams that Vanderbilt has had to contend with. In other words, there's a good chance that Georgia Tech's record wouldn't be quite as good, if it had played Vanderbilt's schedule. Taking that a step further, I don't believe that there's quite as big a gap in talent between these teams as their records (and this pointspread) indicate.
While this season has admittedly been disappointing for the Commodores, let's not forget that they returned 17 starters from the team which defeated a pretty good ACC opponent (Boston College) in a bowl game last year. That was a young Vanderbilt team and this year's team came in with significantly more experience. The Commodores, who lost by only four points at South Carolina last week, are 4-1-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. Last week was one of their best games and with a chance to face a ranked opponent from another conference, I believe that they'll be highly motivated to deliver another big effort. On the other hand, with the ACC Title in their sights and bigger games on deck, playing their second straight road game, I believe that the Yellow Jackets will be ripe for a letdown - regardless of the fact that Paul Johnson says otherwise. We know the Yellow Jackets can run the ball - that's what they do. The Commodores aren't too shabby in that department either though. They average174.8 yards per game on the ground, which ranks in the top 40 in the country. As South Carolina found out last week, the Commodores are also very stingy on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, despite facing some pretty tough opponents (see above) they rank 23rd nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 17.8 points per game. As the Hokies found out on Thursday (UNC beat them outright), big underdogs that can play tough defense can be very dangerous. The last meeting in this series (2003) went to overtime with the Yellow Jackets winning by a score of 24-17. I expect this one to also come down to the wire. *10 Non-Conf GOY |
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10-31-09 | Cincinnati v. Syracuse +15 | 28-7 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with SYRACUSE. With a 7-0 record and a #5 national ranking, obviously the Bearcats are pretty good. However, with that lengthy winning streak (13 games dating back to last year) and lofty ranking come some pretty big lines. I feel that this week's is too high.
The Bearcats are off to their best start since 1954 and just beat rival Louisville by their biggest margin since 1951. Facing "lowly" Syracuse and with much bigger games on deck (revenge game vs. UConn and Friday Night game vs. West Virginia), I feel that the Bearcats may be ripe for a letdown/look-ahead. Note that starting QB Pike remains doubtful. While backup Zach Collaros was admittedly very sharp last week, should he get the call, this will still be just his second start. While I do respect Cincinnati, I also feel that Syracuse is better than many people realize. The Orange played the Big-Ten tough (3-0 ATS) to begin the season. They did get off to a poor start in Big East play (lost by 14 to USF and 21 to West. Virg.). However, they were able to regain a lot of confidence in last week's 28-14 win over Akron. The ground attack came alive as the Orange ran the ball 46 times for 234 yards and three touchdowns. The defense also came through, allowing only 191 yards and one touchdown. For the season, the Syracuse defense is allowing just 83.4 ypg on the ground. Its also worth noting that the Orange have already recorded 19 sacks. QB Paulus, who has completed 64% of his passes, has a bigtime weapon in Mike Williams. After serving a 1-game suspension last week, the star receiver is expected back in the lineup. The Orange stayed within 20 of the Bearcats, at Cincinnati, last season. This season, Syracuse brought back 14 starters (Cincy brought back 9) and gets to play at home. I believe that the Orange will be fired up and look for Cincinnati to fall to 5-10 ATS its last 15 games played inside a dome. *8 |
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10-31-09 | Rutgers +7.5 v. U Connecticut | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with RUTGERS. While I respect UConn, I believe that the Scarlet Knights have a great shot at winning this game outright. For starters, I think they're every bit as talented as the Huskies. Note that last year's game was decided by just two points. Additionally, I really like how the schedule/situation sets up.
Give the Huskies credit. Playing with heavy hearts, due to the passing of their teammate(cornerback Jasper Howard) the Huskies fought hard and gave everything they had. In the end, despite outgaining the Mountaineers, they suffered a heart-breaking 28-24 loss. I say "heart-breaking" as the Huskies had been leading until giving up a 56-yard touchdown in the final minutes. Having dealt with all that emotion from their loss and then having subsequently "left everything on the field," I feel that the Huskies, who flew to Howard's funeral at Miami on Monday, may have some trouble bringing the same type of intensity this afternoon. After Saturday's loss, UConn coach Edsall was quoted as saying: "I just feel empty. The kids played their hearts out..." Rutgers, on the other hand, comes in with some positive momentum and in a good situation. The Knights last game was played on a Friday, giving them an extra day of preparation time. They won the game (at Army) by a score of 27-10. The Knights are now 2-0 on the road, outscoring opponents by an impressive average score of 30.5 to 11.5. Since getting blown out by Cincinnati in their first game, the Knights have gone 5-1 and the lone loss (vs. Pittsburgh) came by only a touchdown. The Huskies, who have now lost two of three, have seen five of their seven games decided by eight points or less. Including this season's two victories, the Knights are now 13-5 ATS their last 18 road games, including a perfect 6-0 ATS their last six. With an 0-2 record in Big East play (5-2 overall) they know they need this one. I expect them to continue their success on the road, taking this one down to the wire and earning at least the cover. *8 High Noon Massacre |
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10-31-09 | Akron +12 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 5 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with AKRON. Akron has admittedly gotten off to a tough start. However, I believe that the Zips are somewhat stronger than indicated by their record and that they're getting too many points here. Note that the Zips last three losses have all come by two touchdowns or less. After beating the Zips last week, Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone had this to say: "At the end of the day, I thought we beat a good football team."
One of the reasons that the Zips have had problems this year is that they've been forced to use different quarterbacks. Now that Patrick Nicely has gotten some more playing time under his belt, I expect the offense to progress. Note the offense returned nine starters this season. Also, note that Nicely was a respectable 16-of-25 (64%) for 191 yards last week. The Huskies have been putting up big numbers on the ground. However, with starting QB Harnish again expected to be out (backup Grady threw for only 60 yards last week) the Zips will be able load up on stopping the run. While the Huskies have thrived as underdogs, they haven't been trustworthy as favorites. In fact, they're just 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they were laying points and a money-burning 6-14 ATS their last 20 in that role. That includes an 0-2 ATS mark the last two times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. The Huskies have seen five of their seven games decided by eight points or less with their last two games being decided by only six combined points. I look for this one to also be a lot closer than most are expecting. 9* Top Mac Report |
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10-30-09 | West Virginia v. South Florida +3 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with SOUTH FLORIDA. Many will be quick to back the Mountaineers here. After all, West Virginia has been a very strong team in recent years and comes in with an impressive 6-1 record. Meanwhile, South Florida is of back to back losses and everyone just saw them lose vs. Cincinnati on National TV. In my opinion, the memory of that game combined with the perception that West Virginia is really strong has helped to give us solid value with the home underdog. I believe that the Bulls are better than they've shown the last couple of weeks and that they'll be highly motivated to prove it. Meanwhile, while certainly still capable, I don't think the Mountaineers are as powerful as some of their other teams in the "Pat White era" were. Note that they returned the fewest number of lettermen in the Big East from last year's team. None of their six victories have come against an elite program and the toughest part of their schedule starts right here.
Yes, the Bulls have been beaten by both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. However, those teams are a combined 14-1 (7-0 in Big East play) and are #1 and #2 in the Conference. Additionally, the Bulls' double-digit win at Florida State is arguably more impressive than any of West Virginia's six victories. Playing at home, the Mountaineers did beat UConn last time out. However, they were outgained by more than 100 yards, giving up more than 500, and needed a late TD to win, by four points. They failed to cover that game and are now just 1-4 ATS their last five games. Their lone cover (and only other Big East game) during that stretch came at Syracuse - and South Florida also won there by almost an identical score. These teams played a close game at West Virginia last season. The Bulls had an edge in both passing and rushing yards (356-280 overall) but the Mountaineers managed a 13-7 victory. However, the Bulls won 21-13 when the teams met here at Tampa the previous year. I expect the Bulls to bounce back with their best effort and look for the Mountaineers to fall to 2-9 ATS the last 11 times that they were coming off a win vs. a conference opponent. *9 Top Oct. Friday play |
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10-29-09 | North Carolina +16.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels lost a tough one last week. At home for a very rare Thursday night home game, they jumped out to a big lead over Florida State and appeared to be in control. Bowden's Seminoles came all the way back to stun the UNC faithful, handing the Heels a painful and costly 30-27 defeat. That kind of loss can admittedly be tough to recover from. That said, I feel that the Tar Heels, 7-4 SU the last 11 times they were off a conference loss, have the talent and the resolve to bounce back with their best effort. I also feel that this number is very generous.
While the Tar Heels were slightly favored last week, they're large underdogs here. Note that they're 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were getting points and 12-4 ATS the last 16. They're also 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +14.5 to +17 range. Of course, covering a large number is made easier with the help of a good defense. Even after last week's loss, the Tar Heels are still allowing an average of only 16.4 points per game and 266.3 yards. As usual, Virginia Tech is tough. The well-coached Hokies are also coming off a bye. However, they're not unbeatable. They lost 28-23 at Georgia Tech in their most recent game before the bye, their second loss of the season. Granted the other loss was against a very strong Alabama team. Still, it should also be pointed out that two of their five wins came by eight points or less. In other words, the Hokies have only won by 17 or more in three of their seven games. Even Duke was able to hang within eight points of them. Meanwhile, while the Tar Heels are only 4-3, none of their three losses came by greater than 17 points. With a 1-2 ATS record so far this month, the Hokies are now just 3-6 ATS in October the past few seasons. During that time, they've gone 1-2 SU/ATS when coming off a bye. They've had their hands full with the Heels in recent seasons, too. Last year's game was decided by three points (UNC had a 17-3 lead but lost 20-17) and the 2007 meeting, here in Blacksburg, was decided by only seven. I look for this one to also prove a lot closer than most are expecting. 9* Roast |
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10-27-09 | East Carolina -4 v. Memphis | 38-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with EAST CAROLINA. I actually think Memphis is a bit better than its 1-5 SU/ATS record (2-5 overall) in lined games indicates. That said, I don't think the Tigers have improved enough to knock off a strong Pirates team which is coming off its best game of the season. Indeed, the Pirates put it all together in a one-sided 49-13 dismantling of Rice.
Granted, the Owls aren't very good. However, if we look at the common opponents we find that these teams have both faced UCF and they've both faced Marshall. The Pirates were 2-0 in those games. The Tigers were 0-2. Even though I did mention that I thought they were a little better than their record indicates, the Tigers still have plenty of issues. It starts with their "red-zone defense." Memphis has yet to force a turnover in the red zone and opposing teams have scored in 25 of their 27 trips there. Special teams have also been a problem. In their last game, the Tigers allowed an average of 33 yards per kick return and 26.5 yards per punt return, including a touchdown. While they have trouble stopping kicks, only six teams in the entire country average fewer yards per return (3.2!) than the Tigers. Not surprisingly, the Tigers are eighth in CUSA in kick coverage, 11th in kickoff returns and 12th in punt returns. Note that East Carolina's Dwayne Harris was named the C-USA Special Teams Player of the Week after returning a kickoff for a touchdown (92-yarder vs. Rice!) for the second straight week. The Tigers have been able to run the ball effectively over their last two games. However, that's likely to be tougher against an ECU unit which has held its last two opponents to just 53 rushing yards per game. That should force the Tigers to throw, which may cause some problems. The Pirates are second in the league with 10 interceptions. Meanwhile, Memphis quarterbacks have thrown 11 picks, second-most in C-USA. Head coach Tommy West has had a good run at Memphis. However, his time here may be running out and he was quoted as saying: "We're banged up at certain positions right now. We have three safeties playing right now at two positions. Seven straight weeks of playing will do that to you..." The Tigers have yet to play a close game all season and all five of their losses have come by double-digts. While the Pirates have played a few closer games, none of their games have been decided by less than four points. They've beaten the Tigers by double-digits three seasons in a row and are a highly profitable 11-1 ATS the last dozen series meetings overall. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *7 roast |
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10-24-09 | Oregon State v. USC -20.5 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 36 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with USC. I had a big play (2008 Sept. GOM) on Oregon State when the Beavers upset the Trojans last season. I'll admit that I didn't call for the outright upset. However, I did feel the number was much too high, for a game at Corvallis. Not only is this season's rematch being played in Southern California, but we've actually got a lower number to work with. With the Trojans coming in with "payback" on their minds, I feel that lower number provides us excellent value on the favorite.
USC doesn't lose too many games - the Beavers were the only ones to beat them last year. This season's loss at Washington nothwithstanding, the Trojans don't lose many conference road games either. When they do, they almost always avenge those losses when they host the team the following season. Prior to last year's loss at Oregon State, the Trojans last Pac-10 road loss was at Oregon in 2007. Last year, the Trojans hosted the Ducks and won 44-10 as 16 point favorites! In 2006, they lost at UCLA and at Oregon State. In 2007, when hosting those teams, they won by a combined score of 48-10. That included a 24-3 win and cover over the Beavers, as 15 point favorites. Including that victory, the Trojans are a perfect 21-0 the last 21 times that they hosted the Beavers. The last three of those victories all came by a minimum of three touchdowns, each also resulting in a pointspread win. Including the 24-3 win here in 2007, the Trojans beat the Beavers by a score of 52-28 here in 2005 and 22-0 here in 2003. While the Trojans haven't been blowing their opponents out quite as much as they have in past years, their 30-3 victory at California (vs. a really good Bears team) proved that they're still fully capable of crushing teams, when properly motivated and when everything is clicking. Despite playing a relatively difficult schedule, the defense ranks in the top 5 in the country and allows a mere 2.1 yards per carry and 67 rushing yards overall. Meanwhile, the offense put up 500 yards and 34 points last week with QB Barkley, who was out in USC's lone loss, threw for 380 yards. Pete Carroll had this to say of his young quarterback: "I think you see Matt Barkley is really something. I love him, the way he plays, battles, competes, the plays he's capable of making. There's no limit." I expect the Trojans defense to do a MUCH better job stopping the run and also for Barkley to build off last week's big game. I also expect Carroll to "keep the pedal to the metal" the whole way, leading to a convincing win and cover. *10 Blowout GOY |
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10-24-09 | Oregon v. Washington +10 | 43-19 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. Having played on them in their victories over California and Utah, I have a lot of respect for the Ducks. However, I also respect the Huskies and feel that this will prove to be a very tough spot for Oregon.
The Ducks had a bye last week. However, prior to that they were off a big road win at UCLA and they've got their biggest game of the season (home game vs. USC) on deck. Facing a team which they have beaten five times in a row and which they destroyed (44-10) last season, it may be easy to get caught looking ahead. That 44-10 result should provide the Huskies with some added motivation here. Keep in mind that game was at Eugene. This year's game is being played at Washington and the Huskies are a MUCH improved team. Yes, they lost a (very) tough one at Arizona State last week, falling by seven points. However, this is a team which has beaten the likes of Arizona and USC while hanging within eight points of both Notre Dame and LSU. They've only lost one game by more than eight points all season and that was their first road game (at Stanford) of the season. While the defense isn't among the best in the country, the Huskies can score points with the best of them. QB Locker has thrown for a league-leading 1,702 yards (11 touchdowns) while adding nearly 40 rushing yards per game. Oregon coach Chip Kelly had this to say of Locker: "I think Jake Locker is the best quarterback in this league. I've thought that for a long time. He's just a tremendous talent. ... He scares us more than anybody we've played against. ... " Locker himself had this to say of this game: "I think it's become a really big rivalry for us. There's a lot of excitement from a lot of people about this weekend's game, and a lot of people wanting us to come out victorious on this one." With the line having climbed from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value with the home underdog Huskies. I expect Locker and co. to keep it close the whole way and won't be surprised if they score the outright upset. *7 best bet |
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10-24-09 | Illinois +11 v. Purdue | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. We're getting excellent value with the visiting Illini, based on last week's results. Purdue defeated Ohio State, outright. Meanwhile, the Illini were defeated by lowly Indiana. That loss continued a disappointing season for the Illini, who entered this season with fairly high expectations.
Give the Boilermakers credit. They played a great game last week and beating Ohio State is a terrific achievement for the program. However, let's not forget that the Boilermakers had previously lost five in a row. Now, off one big (8-point) win, they're suddenly being asked to lay double-digits vs. a team which is arguably more talented (on paper) than they are. Note that the Boilermakers are 7-10-1 ATS the last 17 times that they were favored by greater than eight points, most recently failing to cover vs. Northern Illinois. With an over/under line in the mid 50s, its worth mentioning that the Boilermakers are just 1-4 ATS the last five times that they played a home game with a total ranging from 49.5 to 56. Additionally, note that the Illini are 7-4 ATS the last 11 times that they were underodgs of greater than eight points and a profitable 8-3-1 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range. Yes, the Illini have been a big disappointment and yes they lost last week. However, a closer look shows that the had 443 yards of offense in that game and that they actually had more first downs than did Indiana. The rest of their schedule has been very difficult. They view this as a winnable game and still believe that they have a chance to run the table and become bowl eligible. While running the table is obviously fairly unlikely, I do expect the Illini to rise to the occasion and play their best this week, regardless of whether its Williams, McGee or Charest behind center. Teams often get in a "habit" of playing close games. That's been the case for the Boilermakers recently. Looking at Purdue's last six games and we find that five of them were decided by eight points or less. (The only one that wasn't resulted in a 15 point loss.) Looking back further and we find that the Boilermakers have only won three of their last 20 games by double-digits. Speaking of close games, the Boilermakers have won four of six meetings with the Illini this millennium. However, only two of those six games resulted in Purdue wins of greater than 11 points. I look for the Boilermakers to have their hands full again here with another game coming right down to the wire. *10 Top Big 10 side |
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10-21-09 | Tulsa v. Texas-El Paso +8 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with UTEP. The Miners came through for me in a big way a few weeks ago. Listed as double-digit underdogs, they blew out Houston by a score of 58-41. That victory showed what this team is capable of, when "clicking on all cylinders." However, the Miners had a letdown in their next game (I didn't play them in that one) suffering a disappointing 35-20 loss at Memphis. That result has helped to provide us with a very generous line to work with this week. Note that further value has been provided by the fact that the line has climbed from its opener. While I have a lot of respect for Tulsa, I expect the Miners to bounce back here and for them to look a lot more like the team which defeated Houston than the one which lost at Memphis.
Note that the Houston victory was here at home while the Memphis loss was on the road. Speaking of the Memphis loss, it should ensure that the UTEP players are focused on practicing and improving and keep them from becoming over-confident. (Off the big win over Houston, if they'd also beaten Memphis, they might have started to pat themselves on the back a little.) The Miners have the schedule in their favor here. Tulsa is coming off a hard-fought loss on National TV (vs. Boise State) last Wednesday. Everyone saw Tulsa hold its own and get the cover, further helping us in terms of line value. UTEP, on the other hand, is coming off a bye, having last played on Oct. 10. That gives them plenty of time to prepare. The Miners should also have a motivational edge. In addition to playing a nationally televised game in front of their home fans, they were destroyed at Tulsa last season. In fact, "destroyed" may not even be a strong enough word. Indeed, the Golden Hurricane scored 77 points (77-35) and racked up nearly 800 (791) total yards of offense. With 55 returning lettermen (most in CUSA) and 15 returning starters, it's safe to say that the Miners haven't forgotten that game and that they've had this year's matchup circled ever since. The home team has dominated this series recently, having won five straight. I'll grab the points but I believe that the Miners are more than capable of keeping that streak alive with an outright victory. 10* Top Wed. Report |
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10-17-09 | Stanford v. Arizona -4 | Top | 38-43 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
I'm laying the points with ARIZONA. The Wildcats are off a tough loss last week, falling 36-33 to Washington, after allowing the Huskies a pair of late touchdowns. Note that Arizona had a significant edge in both time of possession and total yards. Many teams might hang their heads from that type of loss. However, I believe that the Wildcats have the talent and resolve to avoid doing so. Returning back home and playing with 'revenge' from back to back 1-point losses in this series, I expect them to respond with a highly motivated effort.
Stanford also lost last week but wasn't nearly as impressive as Arizona. The Cardinal gave up nearly 500 yards of total offense, en route to a double-digit loss at Oregon State. The 38-28 final score made it seem closer than it really was. Note that Arizona defeated that same Beaver team, also at Oregon State, by five points. Last week's game notwithstanding, the Wildcats still rank 17th in the country in total defense, allowing just 281.8 yards per game. They were missing two starting defensive linemen against Washington (DE Brooks Reed and DT Earl Mitchell) but both should be back here. Since losing to Stanford here in 2007, the Wildcats are 9-2 SU their last 11 home games. Every one of those victories came by a minimum of a touchdown. They were upset by the Beavers here last season (as noted they already avenged that loss this year) and the only other team to beat them here, during that time, was USC. On the other hand, since winning here in 2007, the Cardinal have gone an awful 2-10 SU (3-9 ATS) on the road. This season's lone road victory came against Washington State, a team which had gone 1-8 its previous nine games. The Wildcats finished 8-5 last year. That included blowout wins over the likes of Cal, ASU and UCLA, not to mention their double-digit victory in the Las Vegas Bowl. That wasn't bad, considering that they hadn't been to a bowl game since 1998. However, that record could have been a lot better, as all five losses came by 10 points or less. The 1-point loss to Stanford was perhaps the most painful of the losses, as the Cardinal scored the winning touchdown with 25 seconds left. Additionally, the Wildcats were 5-0 heading into that game. Now its payback time. While I respect Stanford, with the line having fallen significantly from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value with the revenge-minded home favorite. *10 'Revenge' GOY |
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10-17-09 | Louisville +13 v. U Connecticut | 25-38 | Push | 0 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with LOUISVILLE. With all due respect to the Huskies, I feel that this number is too high. Both teams are off very close games last time out. The Cardinals bounced back from three straight losses to defeat Southern Miss. by two points. Conversely, UConn responded to two straight victories by suffering a 3-point loss vs. Pittsburgh. That was a tough loss, as the Huskies were up 21-6 late in the third quarter. Off that disappointing defeat, I won't be surprised if the Huskies have some trouble bouncing back. Either way, I expect this one to come down to the wire.
Including last week's setback, the Huskies have now seen four of their five games decided by eight points or less. Speaking of close games, after the Cardinals won the first three meetings during this millennium, the Huskies have responded with back to back close wins in this series. In 2007, the Huskies won by four points, here at Connecticut. Last year, playing at Louisville, the Huskies won by five. A closer look at that game reveals that the Huskies were very fortunate to get the win. In fact, the Cardinals held a whopping 508-279 edge in total yards. I won with the 'under' in last year's matchup. This year, I feel that getting nearly two touchdowns to work with, will prove to be the way to go. 7* |
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10-17-09 | Oklahoma +3 v. Texas | Top | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA. As usual, this is a huge game. It's outcome drastically affects both these schools, the Big 12 conference and the entire BCS Bowl scenario. As usual, both teams are loaded with talent. While both are fully capable of winning this afternoon's game, I expect the Sooners to be the team which gets it done.
Many continue to talk about what happened last year. You may recall that Texas beat Oklahoma in the head-to-head matchup but it was Oklahoma which got selected to play in the BCS Championship game. The general feeling seems to be that Texas wants payback for that and that the Longhorns will be the more motivated team because of it. I agree with the first part but not the second. I'm sure the Longhorns do feel slighted and I know they'd love to take it out on their most hated rival. That said, I don't think they'll be any hungrier than the Sooners. Remember, the Sooners have had to hear all the talk about how they didn't deserve to be there, talk which got even worse when they lost to Florida. They'd love to avenge last season's loss and put an end to all that talk. Speaking of last year's game, everyone talks about how Texas dominated. However, many have forgotten that the Sooners were actually leading that game 21-10 before star linebacker Ryan Reynolds went down with injury. As outside linebacker Travis Lewis had to say of Reynolds' loss: "It was huge for us. He called the defense. He made the checks. He told everybody what's coming. When he went out, there was really nobody to call the defense. We were making calls the wrong way. We weren't making the checks that we were supposed to." The Longhrons had -3 rushing yards before Reynolds went down. After that, they gained 164, averaging 8+ yards per carry. Note that Reynolds will be back for this year's game, along with almost the entire Oklahoma linebacking corps from last year. Yes, the Longhorns are undefeated and the Sooners have a couple of losses. However, those losses came without QB Bradford in the lineup. As Coach Stoops had to say of his QB's return: "...in any game, how can he not make a difference? Last year he was the best player in college football, how can he not? Sure he does, absolutely he does. In the end, we're not talking about just any old guy. He's been pretty special over and over." Bradford returned last week and threw for nearly 400 yards, as Oklahoma crushed a relatively decent Baylor squad. While I'll grab whatever points they're willing to give me, I expect Bradford and co. to build off that effort and look for them to score the minor 'upset.' 9* big 12 Main Event |
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10-15-09 | Cincinnati Bearcats v. South Florida Bulls +3.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 57 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with SOUTH FLORIDA. I've successfully backed a pair of road teams the last couple of Thursdays, winning with Nebraska last week and Colorado (also won with home dog UAB the same week) the previous week. However, that doesn't mean that I don't understand and appreciate the significance of playing at home in front of the national audience. In this case, I feel that these teams are both very well coached and that they're both very equal in terms of talent. Yet, we're actually getting points with the team playing on its home field. I feel that provides us with excellent value.
Many are aware that the Bearcats have an impressive 5-0 record. Guess what? The Bulls have quietly achieved a perfect 5-0 record, too. Sure, Cincinnati's schedule has been somewhat tougher - the Bearcats have defeated Oregon State, Rutgers and Fresno State. However, the Bulls' players can't help who they've been playing and all they've done is "take care of business," regardless of the opponent. Additionally, even though the Seminoles are currently going through a tough stretch, the Bulls' double-digit win at Tallahassee was arguably more impressive than any of Cincinnati's victories. While that point is debatable, at the very least it shows that the Bulls are fully capable of defeating top tier programs. Of course, that's no surprise to anyone who has followed this team. Last year, the Bulls beat #13 Kansas and were ranked #10 in the nation, after going 5-0 through their first five games. The previous year, in 2007, the Bulls started off 6-0, including wins vs. #17 Auburn and #5 West Virginia, and climbed as high as #2 in the national polls. Clearly, this team doesn't get intimidated when a ranked opponent comes to town. The Bulls come in with a score to settle, as they've lost three straight in the series. Last year, they were the team which was the small road favorite and which had the National(#24) ranking. Yet, the Bearcats handed them a 24-10 loss (I had my Big East TOY on the 'under' so was happy) and used the momentum to run the table through the rest of the regular season, en route to winning the Big East. The Bulls felt that could have easily been them last season and they fully believe that they've got the talent to be the team which wins the Conference this season. Note that the Bearcats returned just nine starters from last year's team, including only one on defense, while the Bulls brought back 12, six on each side of the ball. Given their success against ranked teams, it's no real surprise to learn that the Bulls have been excellent when in the underdog role. In fact, they're a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times they were getting points, winning four of those games outright. Looking back slightly further and we find them at 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were getting points. While they lost by five here in '07, they've still won two of three home meetings with the Bearcats. I expect them to have their 'revenge' here, taking a big step towards the Big East title and their first season, since joining the FBS, with double-digits in victories. *10 Top Big East play |
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10-13-09 | Arkansas St. +2 v. Louisiana Monroe | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. I understand why the line has moved from its opening "pick'em" line and why ULM is now the favorite. However, that doesn't mean that I agree with the move.
The Warhawks are clearly improved from last year's 4-8 team. They come in with a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS record. The only two losses were road games at Arizona State and at Texas, so we can't blame them for dropping those. That's a lot better than Arkansas State's 1-3 SU record, the primary reason why this line has moved from its opener. However, a closer look reveals that the Red Wolves can't really be faulted for their losses either. Two of the three losses came on the road against Iowa and Nebraska, a pair of teams that currently have a combined 10-1 record. The Red Wolves other loss was a very close 3-point setback vs. Troy, the best team in the Sun Belt. In other words, its been a fairly brutal schedule. (The lone 'easy' game resulted in a 61-0 victory.) Don't be fooled by the 1-3 record though. As far as Sun Belt teams go, the Red Wolves have a lot of talent. They've got an excellent defense and a solid offense. They returned 15 starters (and 77% of their lettermen) from last year's 6-6 team, a squad which outgained Sun Belt foes by 55+ yards per game, second only to Troy. Speaking of last year, the Red Wolves were favored by 14.5 points when they handed the Warhawks a 37-29 loss. I've already noted that the Warhawks are improved. However, even given the change of venue, I don't feel that they've narrowed the talent gap enough to cause the line to be roughly 17 points different than it was last season. The Red Wolves are hungry and they're anxious to face a foe that they know they can defeat. A road win on National TV will be a great place to start. Going back to the Red Wolves' difficult schedule for a minute, note that their last game (prior to the bye) was the one at Iowa. Just like the loss vs. Troy, Arkansas State lost that game by only three points. That's pretty good when considering that Iowa defeated the likes of Iowa State, Arizona AND Penn State all by double-digits. Including that cover vs. Iowa, the Red Wolves are now a highly profitable 26-13 ATS their last 39 lined games, when coming off back to back SU losses. Facing a ULM team which is just 1-11 SU the last 12 times it was coming off a bye, I expect the Red Wolves to rise to the occasion and score the minor 'upset.' *9 Tues. Main Event |
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10-10-09 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State -3 | Top | 49-44 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 48 m | Show |
I'm laying the small number with FLORIDA STATE. The Yellow Jackets come in with a better record and a higher ranking. With many, including the chairman of the Florida State University trustees, calling for longtime Florida State coach Bobby Bowden to resign, one might think that Georgia Tech would be the favorite here. However, I believe that the Seminoles are favored for good reason.
While Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson is admittedly an excellent coach, Bowden's "no slouch" either (380 careeer wins!) and he didn't just forget how to coach overnight. Keep in mind that it was only a few years ago that we were hearing similar talk about Joe Paterno. Paterno responded to his critics by guiding his Penn State teams to a combined 40-11 record from 2004-2008. Bowden certainly isn't going to go down without a fight. He was quoted as saying: "You would like to go out on top. The season is not over. Let's get the season over and see what happens." Note the Bowden's Seminoles are 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that they were coming off back to back losses. Paul Johnson knows the Seminoles are going to be extremely motivated. He was quoted as saying: "I think they'll come together and I fully expect to get their best effort of the year..." In addition to having homefield advantage, this year's records notwithstanding, I still believe that the Seminoles have the better athletes and more talented overall team. In fact, talent-wise, I feel that this is the best Florida St. team since 2004. These teams have had one common 1-A opponent (they also both faced Jacksonville St) and that was Miami. The Hurricanes beat both of them. However, the Seminoles played them MUCH tougher, as they could have easily won their game while the Yellow Jackets were dominated in theirs. Additionally, Florida State's blowout victory at BYU was arguably more impressive than anything that the Yellow Jackets have done or accomplished. While they lost by three points at Georgia Tech last season, the Seminoles are a perfect 6-0 vs. the Yellow Jackets here at Tallahassee and they're still 12-1 against them under Bowden. It should also be noted that the Seminoles are a profitable 14-6 ATS the last 20 times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3, including a 4-1 SU/ATS mark their last five in that role. I expect them to rally around their H.O.F-bound coach, avenging last year's loss and covering the small number along the way. *9 ACC Main Event |
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10-10-09 | Alabama v. Mississippi +5 | Top | 22-3 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with MISSISSIPPI. I successfully played against each of these teams the last time that they lost a game. I was against the Rebels when they lost at South Carolina a few Thursdays ago. I was also against the Crimson Tide when they were upset by Utah at the Sugar Bowl. I have alot of respect for the Crimson Tide and haven't played against them since that day. However, I think that this will prove to be an excellent spot to do so.
Both these teams are very talented and both entered the year ranked in the Top 10. Both had this game circled, as they had hoped it would be a battle of undefeated teams. While the perfect season didn't pan out for the Rebels, that doesn't mean that they aren't still an extremely talented and experienced team. Alabama coach Nick Saban concurs. He was quoted as saying: "Mississippi is probably the best team we have played to this point, all the way around...Their defensive team is very highly ranked They've got a very good front, a couple of dominant up front guys and couple of good pass rushers and play well in the secondary." Keep in mind that Saban's team already took on a highly ranked Virginia Tech team, so that's some pretty high praise. The Rebels have shown that they're capable of rising to the occasion to knock off top teams. Just ask Florida. Last year, the Gators came in with an undefeated record and the Rebels handed them a 31-30 loss. Of course, the Tide know first-hand that these Rebels are tough. Last year, at Alabama, the Crimson Tide jumped out to a 24-3 lead only to see the Rebels battle all the way back. The Tide managed to hang on (barely) for a 24-20 victory with Ole Miss easily earning the cover. The previous game, in the most recent here at Oxford, was also very close. Alabama won that one by a score of 27-24. Once again, the Rebels earned the cover. In fact, the 2005 and 2006 meetings were also both decided by a field goal (26-23 Alabama and 13-10 Alabama) with Ole Miss easily covering as double-digit underdogs each time. While the Crimson Tide are again very strong, this is arguably the best Rebels team in recent years. Note that while the Rebels haven't beaten Alabama in some time, coach Houston Nutt has gotten the better of Saban's LSU teams twice, while he was with Arkansas. Including the recent pointspread victories vs. Alabama, the Rebels are a highly profitable 15-5 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. That includes a perfect 8-0 ATS mark their last eight in that role. The Rebels gave the Tide everything they could handle at Alabama last year. This year, they brought back more starters than did the Tide and they get to play at home. They also catch Alabama playing the second of back to back road games for the first time since Sept. '08. I expect another one that comes down to the wire and this time, won't be surprised if its Ole Miss which finishes on top. *10 Top Sec play |
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10-10-09 | Georgia v. Tennessee -1 | 19-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. While most would give the edge to Georgia, in terms of talent, I feel that these teams are very equal. With the game being played at Tennessee and with the Volunteers playing with 'revenge,' I feel that they'll have the advantage.
Yes, the Bulldogs dominated last year's game. However, that was at Athens and this is a much stronger Tennessee team and the Vols' homefield advantage can't be understated. When the teams met here in 2007, the Vols jumped out to a 28-0 lead and won by a 35-14 score. Note the line for that game was very similar to this one, where the winning SU team was very likely to also be the winning ATS team. Including the 2007 victory over the Bulldogs, the Vols are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. They view this game as a chance to make a statement and I expect them to do just that. 7* |
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10-10-09 | Michigan State v. Illinois +4 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. I feel that last week's results have helped to provide us with excellent value on the home underdog here. The Spartans knocked off Michigan. The Illini were blown out by Penn State. However, before getting too carried away over those results, note that Penn State is very strong and that Michigan isn't quite as powerful these days as some of the recent.
Yes, the Illini have been struggling. However, in their defense, they've played a very difficult schedule. They lost to a decent Missouri team on a neutral field and their other two losses came at Ohio State and vs. Penn State. The only time that they were matched up against a lesser opponent (Illinois St on 9/12) they took care of business with a 45-17 blowout. Meanwhile, prior to last week's overtime winner, the Spartans' only victory had come against Montana State. Note that the Spartans' loss vs. Central Michigan was arguably far worse than anything that Illinois has done. While Juice Williams is very capable, he's struggled so far this season. I like the decision to insert junior Eddie McGee. McGee has plenty of weapons at his disposal and I expect the change to provide a much-needed spark - even if Williams does eventually return. The last meeting in this series (2006) was decided by just a field goal. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and feel that getting more than a field goal to work with provides us with plenty of value. 7* |
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10-10-09 | Vanderbilt v. Army +10 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points with ARMY. I respect the Commodores. However, they don't have an explosive offense and I feel that this is too many points for them to be laying for a non-conf. game, sandwiched between a pair of big SEC clashes, vs. a team which has an identical record as they do.
The Commodores have long struggled in the favorite role. They're 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they were laying points and a money-burning 16-26-1 ATS the last 43. That includes a 2-5 ATS mark as road favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. The Commodores strength is running the ball. That plays into Army's hands though, as the Black Knights are allowing just 111.6 ypg and only 3.4 yards per carry. Through five games, they've allowed just five rushing scores. The Black Knights (2-3) haven't been covering the spread, which has helped to keep this week's line generously high. However, they have been competitive in each of their last two home games. In their last game, they lost by a single point vs. Tulane. In their previous home game, they defeated Ball State by a touchdown. They were 6-3 ATS in Weeks 5-9 the last couple of seasons and I look for them to give their guests all they can handle here. *8 Non-Conf. GOW |
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10-08-09 | Nebraska -3 v. Missouri | 27-12 | Win | 100 | 34 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm laying the points with NEBRASKA. I've had plenty of success with home underdogs on Thursday nights over the years. However, that doesn't mean that I'm not willing to back the occasional road favorite. In this case, I believe that the road team is offering us plenty of value.
Naturally, this is a very big game. These teams are bitter rivals and both are very anxious to kick-off conference play with a victory. The Tigers have been tough at home in recent years. However, I feel that the Huskers are a stronger team and that they come in with a little more to prove. I say that as the Huskers have had little success on the road vs. ranked teams and they'd really like to get that monkey off their back. Additionally, the Tigers have blown out them out in back to back meetings and this is their chance to settle the score. Doing so at Faurot Field on National TV would be a statement that "Nebraska's back" and there would be nothing sweeter to the Huskers. The Tigers do come in with the better record. They're 4-0 while the Huskers are 3-1. However, the Huskers' lone loss came at Virginia Tech (Hokies were ranked #13 at the time) and that loss came by only one point, (16-15) with the Hokies scoring with 21 seconds left to earn the win. While the Tigers have beaten a pair of capable teams in Illinois and Nevada, both those programs have struggled so far. Their other two wins came against the likes of Furman and Bowling Green. The combined record of those four opponents is just 6-12, with Furman (a Football Championship Subdivision team) accounting for three of those victories - those coming against its Southern Conference foes. In other words, Nebraska and Missouri could easily have the same record, if they'd played the same schedule. The loss to V-Tech notwithstanding, the Huskers have been dominating their opponents. In fact, they've outscored Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State and Lafayette by a combined margin of 142-12. The offense ranks 19th in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 440 yards per game and ninth with 39.3 points per game. The defense has been even better. Indeed, the Huskers are first in FBS in scoring defense, allowing just seven points per game, and their 28 points allowed are their fewest yielded through four games since 1990. Last year was Bo Pellini's first year as coach of Nebraska and last year's game vs. Missouri was his very first within the conference. Not only did the Huskers lose but they were blown out by a score of 52-17. That was their most lopsided defeat at Memorial Stadium since 1955. Its safe to say that Pellini and co. haven't forgotten. While it hasn't been noticable yet, this year's Tigers had the fewest number of returning starters in the Big 12 and were tied (with OSU) for the fewest number of returning lettermen. Look for those personnel losses to finally catch up with them this evening, as the revenge-minded Huskers get some payback, covering the small number along the way. *8 Roast |
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10-03-09 | Houston v. Texas-El Paso +15 | Top | 41-58 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with UTEP. The Cougars come off a pair of very impressive victories over Big 12 teams and should be respected. That said, I believe that this spread is much too high. The Miners are a lot better team than their blowout losses vs. Kansas and at Texas indicate. They believe that they can win this game and have had it circled.
Houston, on the other hand, may not see this as such a "big game" now, after having just knocked off the bigger name schools. Note that even with last week's victory, the Cougars are still a money-burning 1-9 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off back to back SU wins. While I think the Miners have an excellent shot at winning this game outright, either way, I expect it to be close. For starters, Houston has gotten in the habit of playing close games, as both their victories over Big 12 teams came by 10 points or less. Utep did get blown out by Kanas and Texas but the Miners destroyed New Mex. State and they played a very close game vs. Buffalo in their opener, taking a six point loss. Additionally, looking at the series history and we find that all the games have been close. Last year's game was decided by five points. Houston won the game (42-37) but the Miners easily covered. The previous year, in the most recent game here at El Paso, the Miners won by three points. The previous meeting here, in 2005, was also decided by only three points - a wild 44-41 double-overtime affair. Note that the Miners returned 15 starters from the team that lost by five at Houston last year. Speaking of that game, you may recall that Utep had a 28-9 lead late in the third. That memory should serve them well here. Not only will they be looking for some 'payback,' but it will give them the confidence to know that they can compete with this team. Despite their tough start, the Miners know that all will be forgotten if they can manage a victory here. Look for them to deliver a highly motivated effort, taking this one down to the wire and dropping the Cougars to 2-7 ATS the last nine times they were laying points on the road. *10 CUSA GOY |
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10-03-09 | East Carolina -2 v. Marshall | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm playing on EAST CAROLINA. The Thundering Herd have been covering the spread while the Pirates have not. The Herd are 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS. The Pirates are 2-2 SU and 0-3 ATS.
Yet, it's East Carolina which comes in as the slight favorite. Those records have actually worked in our favor as the line could be higher. That's because the Pirates are arguably the more talented team - they've just played the more difficult schedule. Note that the line has come down below its opener, meaning that a win by a field goal will be enough to earn the cover. While I do believe the Herd are improved, I also feel that this is a strong East Carolina team, better than many realize. Keep in mind that the Pirates returned 16 players from last year's 9-5 team, which defeated the likes of Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Tulsa. Marshall also returned numerous starters. The Herd had a lot further to go though, as they were just 4-8 last season. Note that the Pirates are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as road favorites of three points or less. They're also 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, note that they've won three of the last four meetings with the Herd. All three victories came by a minimum of a field goal. I expect the Pirates to put it all together here, earning the victory and covering the small number along the way. 7* |
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10-02-09 | Pittsburgh v. Louisville +6.5 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with LOUISVILLE. I successfully played against the Panthers at NC State last week. For awhile it looked like I might lose that one, as Pittsburgh had a lead. However, in the end, the Panthers defense couldn't get a stop and the Wolfpack rallied for a 7-point victory. Those are the type of losses that can be tough to bounce back from, particularly when playing the second of back to back road games and playing on a short week.
The Cardinals are also coming off a loss. In fact, they've lost two in a row. However, those losses both came on the road. They lost (but covered) by only four at Kentucky before losing by 16 vs. an angry Utah team last time out - a situation where they were the ones playing the second of back to back road games. Naturally, this is a very big game for both teams. With it being at home, playing with 'revenge' from an embarrassing loss, and due to the fact that the Cards have a losing record, I feel that they'll be the team playing with a little more sense of urgency. Note that Louisville is 5-3 ATS the last eight times it was a home underdog in the +3.5 to +7 range. The Panthers have long had a tendency to struggle against teams with a losing record. In fact, they're just 15-30 ATS their last 45 against teams which were below .500. Not surprisingly, they're just 5-12 ATS the last 17 times that they were laying points. Prior to last year, the Cardinals had long dominated the Panthers. I expect a highly motivated effort and look for them to earn at leas the cover. *9 Friday Main Event |
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