Free NFL Pick: Dolphins vs. Raiders Odds
Looking for Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Dolphins taking on the Raiders on 9/13 at Allegiant Stadium, in Las Vegas. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Dolphins Raiders matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders
(7-10) Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
Date: Sep 13, 2026
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV
NFL Moneyline Odds: Dolphins +157 | Raiders -189 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Dolphins +3.5 | Raiders -3.5
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 40.5
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Dolphins Raiders free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Dolphins vs. Raiders Gameday
The Miami Dolphins open the 2026 regular season with a trip to Las Vegas to face the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Kickoff is set for Sunday, September 13 at 4:25 PM ET on FOX, with both teams beginning the year under new head coaches after difficult 2025 seasons.
Miami went 7-10 last season and now turns to Jeff Hafley, who takes over after spending the previous two years as Green Bay’s defensive coordinator. The Dolphins also have a new quarterback in Malik Willis, another familiar face from Hafley’s time with the Packers.
Miami enters Week 1 after being outscored 63-22 during an 0-3 preseason.
Las Vegas finished 3-14 in 2025 and handed the offense to former Seahawks coordinator Klint Kubiak. The Raiders also changed quarterbacks, naming veteran Kirk Cousins the Week 1 starter ahead of No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza.
Neither team is coming off an August that will scare anyone.
Miami lost all three preseason games, including a 17-12 finale against Atlanta, while Las Vegas went 1-2 with its lone victory coming 22-20 at Houston. The records mean little now, but both coaching staffs spent the summer sorting through major changes before this opener.
Miami has controlled the recent series, winning five straight meetings with Las Vegas. The Dolphins took the most recent matchup 34-19 in November 2024, but this Week 1 meeting features very different quarterbacks and coaching staffs on both sidelines.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds & Last 5
Las Vegas enters this matchup as the home favorite, with the Raiders laying 3.5 points and sitting around -180 on the moneyline. Miami is getting +3.5, while the total is sitting at 40.5 points, one of the lower Week 1 numbers on the board.
The recent head-to-head history belongs to Miami.
The Dolphins beat Las Vegas 34-19 in their most recent meeting on November 17, 2024. Miami also won 20-13 in 2023, extending a run that has seen the Dolphins win five consecutive games against the Raiders dating back to 2018.
Those results came with different personnel, particularly at quarterback. Miami moved on from Tua Tagovailoa during the offseason and signed Willis, while the Raiders released Geno Smith and brought in Cousins before using the first overall draft pick on Mendoza.
The preseason didn’t offer either side much momentum.
Miami went 0-3, losing 20-7 at Washington, 26-3 against the Giants and 17-12 against Atlanta. Las Vegas finished 1-2 after losses to Arizona and San Francisco around its two-point comeback victory over Houston.
Raiders Stats From Last Season
Las Vegas enters 2026 trying to rebuild an offense that finished at the bottom of the NFL last season. The Raiders went 3-14, scored only 241 points and averaged 14.2 points per game, the lowest mark in the league.
The ground game was an especially big problem. Las Vegas averaged only 77.5 rushing yards per game, also ranking last, despite rookie Ashton Jeanty producing 975 yards as the clear centerpiece of the backfield.
There wasn’t much relief through the air.
The Raiders averaged 195.0 net passing yards per game and turned the ball over 28 times. Geno Smith threw for 3,025 yards but also tossed 17 interceptions, and Las Vegas finished 32nd in total offense before making sweeping changes during the offseason.
The defense was more respectable than the offense, although it still had to spend too much time protecting bad situations. Las Vegas allowed 25.4 points per game and finished 14th in total yards allowed, with Maxx Crosby again providing the biggest problem for opposing offenses.
Kubiak now gets the job of rebuilding the entire operation.
Cousins earned the opening-day quarterback job after completing 13 of 17 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown during the preseason. Mendoza will begin his rookie season behind him, allowing the Raiders to avoid immediately throwing the first overall pick into the lineup.
Jeanty’s health is another situation worth watching after he dealt with an ankle injury late in the preseason. Las Vegas is counting on him to remain the focal point of a running game that needs a significant jump after last year’s struggles.
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Dolphins Stats From Last Season
Miami finished 7-10 last season while scoring 347 points, an average of 20.4 per game. The Dolphins generated 5,112 total yards, ranking 26th, as an offense once built around its passing game became much more dependent on De’Von Achane.
Achane was easily the brightest part of the offense.
He rushed for 1,350 yards and eight touchdowns on 238 carries, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. Achane also caught 67 passes for another 488 yards and four scores, giving Miami 1,838 yards from scrimmage from one of the league’s most explosive backs.
The Dolphins finished with 2,044 rushing yards as a team, ranking 13th, while their passing game slipped to 3,068 net yards. Miami also committed 24 turnovers, including 18 interceptions, and finished 25th in scoring despite Achane’s breakout season.
The defense had its own problems.
Miami allowed 424 points, or 24.9 per game, while surrendering 5,929 total yards. Opponents rushed for 2,251 yards and averaged 4.8 per carry, an area Hafley will be looking to improve as he reshapes the roster and defensive approach.
The biggest offseason move came at quarterback. Miami released Tagovailoa and signed Willis to a three-year contract after Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan worked with him in Green Bay.
Willis gives the offense a completely different dimension with his legs. He has made only six NFL starts, but he has completed 67.7% of his career passes with six touchdowns against three interceptions while adding 405 rushing yards and four scores.
Miami’s 0-3 preseason wasn’t pretty, with the offense producing only 22 total points. Achane remains the proven centerpiece, but Week 1 will provide the first meaningful look at what Hafley and his staff have built around Willis.
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Dolphins vs. Raiders QB Matchup
Kirk Cousins gets the first shot at quarterback for Las Vegas after Kubiak officially named the veteran his Week 1 starter. Cousins joined the Raiders after being released by Atlanta, giving Las Vegas an experienced option while Mendoza begins his development behind him.
Cousins has 44,700 career passing yards with 298 touchdowns and 131 interceptions across 14 NFL seasons. He also had a solid preseason, completing 13 of 17 attempts for 101 yards and a touchdown before the Raiders settled their quarterback competition.
The arrangement may not last forever.
Mendoza was the first overall pick after winning the Heisman Trophy and leading Indiana to a national championship, so Las Vegas clearly views him as its future. For now, Cousins gives Kubiak a veteran to operate the offense with Jeanty, Tre Tucker and Brock Bowers around him.
Miami is taking a much different approach with Willis.
The Dolphins signed him to a three-year, $67.5 million contract after moving on from Tagovailoa, making this more than a short-term experiment. Willis spent the previous two seasons backing up Jordan Love in Green Bay and arrives with only six career starts, but his athletic ability gives Miami an element it didn’t have at quarterback last season.
Willis has thrown for 1,322 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions in 22 career appearances. He has also rushed for 405 yards and four touchdowns, and that mobility should become a regular part of Miami’s offense alongside Achane.
Cousins brings the much deeper résumé, while Willis offers the greater running threat. How quickly each quarterback settles into a new offense could decide a matchup carrying one of Week 1’s lower betting totals.
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders bottom line: both teams enter Week 1 with new coaches and quarterbacks, leaving offensive execution as the biggest question in a matchup lined with a low total.
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Football Betting Trends
- The Dolphins have gone 5-1-1 in over/under in their last 7 away games during the regular season.
- Additionally, Miami has a 2-1 record in over/under when playing as an underdog in their last 3 regular season games.
- The Raiders have a 4-2 record in over/under in their last 6 home games during the regular season.
- Las Vegas has also gone 4-2 in over/under in all their games with totals of 42 or less in the last 6 regular season games.
- Also, the Raiders have a 2-1 record against the spread in their last 3 home games during the regular season.
- The Dolphins have a 5-2 record against the spread after a loss in their last 7 regular season games.
Dolphins Raiders Free Pick: Under 40.5
Here is my Dolphins Raiders free pick: I’m playing Under 40.5, and neither offense has earned much trust yet. Miami scored only 22 points across three preseason games, so I’m not expecting the new offense to suddenly come out flying in Las Vegas.
The Dolphins averaged 20.4 points last season before replacing Tua Tagovailoa with Malik Willis. I like what Willis can add with his legs, but six career starts isn’t much experience for a quarterback learning a new offense on the road.
Las Vegas has its own transition underway. The Raiders averaged an NFL-low 14.2 points last season, and Kirk Cousins is now being asked to stabilize the offense while rookie Fernando Mendoza waits behind him.
This total is low for a reason, and I’m not interested in fighting it.
Ashton Jeanty and De’Von Achane also give both teams a reason to lean on the ground game. Sustained rushing drives can move the football without necessarily turning this into a track meet.
There should be some improvement from both offenses, but I don’t need either defense to dominate. A couple of stalled red-zone possessions or long drives ending in field goals would put 40.5 in a comfortable spot.
I see more grinding than fireworks in this opener. Something around 20-17 works just fine.
Give me the Under 40.5.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
🎥 🔴 LIVE: Head Coach Klint Kubiak addresses the media from the Intermountain Health Performance Center. https://t.co/FdyXier9QO
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) September 2, 2026
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