Free NFL Pick: Falcons vs. Steelers Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Steelers on 9/13 at Acrisure Stadium, in Pittsburgh. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Falcons Steelers matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers
(8-9) Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Date: Sep 13, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA
NFL Moneyline Odds: Falcons +150 | Steelers -181 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Falcons +3.5 | Steelers -3.5
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 42
Here’s why I’m backing an Atlanta ATS bet below in my Falcons Steelers free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Falcons vs. Steelers Gameday
The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off with the Atlanta Falcons traveling to Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The game is set for Sunday, September 13 at 1:00 PM ET on FOX, with both teams opening the year under new head coaches.
Atlanta is now led by Kevin Stefanski, with Tommy Rees coordinating the offense and Jeff Ulbrich returning to run the defense. The Falcons finished the preseason 2-1, bouncing back from a 27-7 loss to Denver with victories over Indianapolis and Miami.
Atlanta enters Week 1 with Tua Tagovailoa officially getting the start over Michael Penix Jr.
Pittsburgh also has a new head coach, with Mike McCarthy taking over a team that went 10-7 and won the AFC North last season. Aaron Rodgers returns at quarterback, while Patrick Graham takes over a defense still featuring T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Patrick Queen.
The Steelers went 1-2 during the preseason.
Pittsburgh opened with a 28-9 victory over Green Bay before losing 17-0 to the Jets and 28-27 at Buffalo. Atlanta finished August with consecutive wins, so both teams now turn their attention toward a Week 1 matchup with plenty of offseason changes on each side.
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2026 NFL Football Handicapping
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds & Last 5
Pittsburgh enters Week 1 as a 3.5-point home favorite, with Atlanta getting +3.5 on the road. The Steelers are sitting around -180 on the moneyline, the Falcons around +150, and the total has moved into the 42-point range.
The Steelers have controlled the recent series. Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 18-10 in 2024 and 19-16 in 2022, while the Falcons’ last regular-season victory over the Steelers came back in 2006.
Those recent meetings have generally been tight and low scoring.
Atlanta finished the 2026 preseason 2-1. After losing 27-7 to Denver, the Falcons beat Indianapolis 34-6 and Miami 17-12, with Tagovailoa completing 7 of 8 passes for 95 yards in the finale against his former team.
Pittsburgh finished 1-2, opening with a 28-9 win over Green Bay before being shut out 17-0 by the Jets. The Steelers then lost their preseason finale 28-27 at Buffalo, finishing August with consecutive defeats.
Steelers Stats From Last Season
Pittsburgh went 10-7 last season and won the AFC North before losing to Houston in the Wild Card round. The Steelers averaged 23.4 points per game while producing 5,196 total offensive yards, but the running game finished near the bottom of the league.
The Steelers threw for 3,440 net passing yards and rushed for 1,756. Rodgers started 16 games, completing 327 of 498 passes for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.
Turnovers were one of Pittsburgh’s biggest defensive strengths.
The Steelers allowed 22.8 points per game and 6,068 total yards, including 4,146 through the air. They compensated for some of those yardage problems by forcing 27 turnovers, with 15 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries.
Pittsburgh’s roster has changed around Rodgers entering 2026.
Jaylen Warren leads a backfield that now includes Rico Dowdle, while DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. headline the receiving corps. Watt, Heyward, Queen, Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter Jr. give Patrick Graham plenty of established talent to work with defensively.
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Falcons Stats From Last Season
Atlanta finished 8-9 last season while averaging 20.8 points per game. The Falcons produced 5,661 total offensive yards, with their ground game accounting for 2,138 yards and giving the offense a dependable foundation.
Bijan Robinson remained the centerpiece. He rushed for 1,478 yards and seven touchdowns while adding 79 receptions for 820 yards and four more scores, finishing with 2,298 yards from scrimmage.
Atlanta’s pass rush made an even bigger jump.
The Falcons recorded a franchise-record 57 sacks after finishing near the bottom of the league in that category the previous season. James Pearce Jr. led Atlanta with 10.5 sacks, although his availability entering 2026 has changed the look of that front.
The quarterback situation has been the bigger story heading into Week 1.
Penix started nine games last season before suffering a partially torn ACL that required surgery. He was cleared for full-team work in August, but Stefanski has named Tagovailoa the Week 1 starter and said Penix will be inactive, with Cooper Rush serving as the backup.
Tagovailoa got a useful tune-up in Atlanta’s preseason finale against Miami, completing 7 of 8 passes for 95 yards. He now gets the first opportunity to run Rees’ offense with Robinson providing a proven option behind him.
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Falcons vs. Steelers QB Matchup
Aaron Rodgers returns as Pittsburgh’s starter after playing 16 games for the Steelers last season. He completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions, giving Pittsburgh another year of veteran stability at quarterback.
Rodgers also reunites with McCarthy, his longtime head coach in Green Bay. The Steelers will be looking for that familiarity to help smooth the transition into another new offensive system.
Atlanta’s situation is considerably more interesting.
Tagovailoa joined the Falcons during the offseason while Penix continued recovering from ACL surgery. Penix was eventually cleared for 11-on-11 work, but Atlanta announced Sunday that Tua will start Week 1, Rush will be the backup and Penix will be inactive.
That makes this more than a simple one-game replacement.
Tagovailoa has a chance to establish himself while Penix continues working back toward game readiness. Pittsburgh has the continuity advantage with Rodgers, but Atlanta can protect Tua with Robinson and a running game that produced 2,138 yards last season.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers bottom line: Pittsburgh has more continuity at quarterback, while Atlanta will lean on Tagovailoa and Robinson as its new offense gets its first regular-season test.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Football Betting Trends
- Atlanta has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 regular season games as underdogs.
- Also, the Falcons have gone over the total in their last 3 regular season games when playing as underdogs.
- Atlanta has won their last 4 regular season games straight up.
- Pittsburgh has a strong record at home, going 6-2 straight up in their last 8 regular season home games.
- Additionally, the Steelers have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 regular season home games.
- Pittsburgh has won 4 of their last 6 regular season games when favored.
Falcons Steelers Free Pick: Falcons +3.5
Here is my Falcons Steelers free pick: I’m grabbing the 3.5 points with Atlanta.
This number gives me enough room to back a Falcons team that has a pretty clear offensive identity. Bijan Robinson rushed for 1,478 yards last season, and Atlanta finished eighth in rushing with 2,138 yards. That is exactly the kind of support I want behind Tua Tagovailoa in a road opener.
Tua doesn’t have to prove he’s a better long-term answer than Michael Penix Jr. on Sunday. He needs to protect the football, hit the throws that are there and let Robinson keep this offense out of bad down-and-distance situations.
Getting more than a field goal makes that formula much easier to bet.
Pittsburgh deserves to be favored at home, but laying 3.5 asks a different question. The Steelers averaged 23.4 points last season and rushed for only 1,756 yards, so I’m not expecting them to simply run away from Atlanta.
There is also enough bite in the Falcons defense to keep this interesting. Atlanta recorded 57 sacks last season, and even with personnel changes up front, that improvement gives me more confidence in the dog.
I see a game that stays within one possession deep into the fourth quarter. Give me the hook.
I’ll take the Falcons +3.5.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Actual happiness pic.twitter.com/OwJjNay1Eu
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) September 7, 2026
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