Free NFL Pick: Packers vs. Vikings Odds
Looking for Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Packers taking on the Vikings on 9/13 at U.S. Bank Stadium, in Minnesota. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Packers Vikings matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
(9-7) Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
Date: Sep 13, 2026
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN
NFL Moneyline Odds: Packers -101 | Vikings -119 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Packers +1 | Vikings -1
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 46
Here’s why I’m backing a Minnesota ATS bet below in my Packers Vikings free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Packers vs. Vikings Gameday
The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off with the Green Bay Packers traveling to U.S. Bank Stadium to face the Minnesota Vikings. This NFC North matchup is set for Sunday, September 13 at 4:25 PM ET on CBS, with two teams coming off winning seasons trying to grab an early division victory.
Green Bay is again led by Matt LaFleur after finishing 9-7-1 and earning a Wild Card berth last season. Adam Stenavich remains the offensive coordinator, while former Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon takes over a defense that allowed 21.2 points per game in 2025.
Minnesota closed last season with five straight wins, including a Week 18 victory over Green Bay.
The Vikings return Kevin O’Connell, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips and defensive coordinator Brian Flores after finishing 9-8. The biggest change is at quarterback, where offseason addition Kyler Murray won the starting job over J.J. McCarthy and will make his Minnesota regular-season debut at home.
Both teams had some uneven moments during August.
Green Bay finished the preseason 2-1 after losing its opener to Pittsburgh before beating Denver and Arizona. Minnesota went 1-2, opening with a victory over the Giants before losses to Baltimore and Denver, but the preseason results take a back seat now that the starters are preparing for a familiar division opponent.
The Packers and Vikings split their two meetings last season, each winning on their home field. That makes Week 1 an immediate measuring stick in a division where Green Bay and Minnesota were separated by only half a game in 2025.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds & Last 5
The betting market has Minnesota as a slight home favorite for this NFC North opener. The Vikings are laying 1.5 points, with the moneyline sitting around -120, while Green Bay is getting +1.5 and is close to even money. The total is sitting in the low 40s.
Minnesota won the most recent meeting 16-3 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 18 last season. Green Bay rested several starters with its playoff position already established, and the Vikings took advantage by outgaining the Packers 363-121.
The first meeting looked considerably different.
Green Bay beat Minnesota 23-6 at Lambeau Field earlier in the season, giving the teams a split of the 2025 series. The Vikings ultimately finished 9-8 after winning their final five games, while the Packers closed 9-7-1 and went to the playoffs despite dropping their final four regular-season games.
Green Bay went 2-1 this preseason, rebounding from a 28-9 loss at Pittsburgh with a 33-13 victory in Denver. The Packers then closed August with a wild 42-38 comeback win over Arizona behind four touchdown passes from Kyle McCord, who was later traded to Miami.
Minnesota finished 1-2, beating the Giants 13-10 before losing 13-3 to Baltimore and 34-6 at Denver. The Vikings used the preseason to settle roster questions rather than chase results, with Murray emerging from the quarterback competition as O’Connell’s Week 1 starter.
Vikings Stats From Last Season
Minnesota finished 9-8 last season despite an offense that had trouble consistently producing points. The Vikings averaged 20.2 points per game, ranking 26th, and generated 4,675 total yards while finishing near the bottom of the league in passing production.
The offense produced 2,834 net passing yards and 1,841 rushing yards. Minnesota also turned the ball over 30 times, including 21 interceptions, putting additional pressure on a defense that frequently had to protect short fields.
That defense was good enough to keep the Vikings competitive.
Minnesota allowed only 19.6 points per game, ranking seventh, and surrendered 4,804 total yards. Flores’ defense was especially difficult to throw against, allowing only 2,694 net passing yards, second fewest in the league, while opponents completed just 279 passes all season.
The run defense was much easier to attack.
Minnesota surrendered 2,110 rushing yards, ranking 31st, but its ability to limit passing production helped compensate for that weakness. The defense also produced 21 takeaways, including 13 fumble recoveries, while helping the Vikings finish the season on a five-game winning streak.
The quarterback change gives O’Connell a different type of player to build around in 2026. Murray signed with Minnesota after seven seasons in Arizona and beat out McCarthy during training camp, giving the Vikings an experienced starter with 87 career starts and more mobility than they had at the position last season.
Minnesota’s preseason ended with consecutive losses, including the 34-6 defeat in Denver. Murray and most of the established starters were not asked to carry a heavy exhibition workload, leaving Week 1 as the first real look at how the remodeled offense fits together.
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Packers Stats From Last Season
Green Bay finished 9-7-1 last season and earned the NFC’s final Wild Card spot. The Packers scored 391 points, averaging 23.0 per game, and generated 5,654 total offensive yards while maintaining good balance between Jordan Love’s passing game and the ground attack.
Love started 15 games and completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,381 yards, 23 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Green Bay finished with 3,617 net passing yards and another 2,037 on the ground, averaging 4.1 yards per rushing attempt.
The Packers were also solid defensively for most of the season.
Green Bay allowed 21.2 points and 311.8 total yards per game, finishing 11th in scoring defense and 12th in total yards allowed. The secondary surrendered 194.1 net passing yards per game, while opponents averaged 117.7 yards on the ground.
There are significant changes around that group entering Week 1.
Gannon replaces Jeff Hafley as defensive coordinator and is installing his own system, but he’ll open the season without Micah Parsons. The star edge rusher remains on the PUP list following ACL surgery and must miss at least the first four games, removing Green Bay’s premier pass rusher from this matchup.
The offense has an important absence of its own. Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List and cannot play, leaving MarShawn Lloyd likely to handle the largest share of the backfield work alongside Chris Brooks and newcomer Kaleb Johnson.
Green Bay still finished the preseason 2-1 and showed plenty of depth in its 42-38 finale against Arizona. McCord threw for 226 yards and four touchdowns before being traded, while J. Michael Sturdivant secured a roster spot after catching six passes for 112 yards and a touchdown.
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Packers vs. Vikings QB Matchup
Kyler Murray will make his Vikings debut after O’Connell named him the starter over McCarthy during training camp. Murray spent his first seven NFL seasons with Arizona, starting all 87 games he played before signing a one-year contract with Minnesota during the offseason.
His 2025 season was shortened to five games, but Murray completed 68.3% of his passes for 962 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. He also rushed for 173 yards and a touchdown, showing that his legs remain an important part of his game.
Murray now gets a familiar face across the field.
Gannon coached Murray in Arizona from 2023 through 2025 before becoming Green Bay’s defensive coordinator. That history gives both sides some familiarity, although Murray now operates O’Connell’s offense with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson among his primary targets.
Jordan Love gives Green Bay much more continuity at quarterback.
Love started 15 games last season, throwing for 3,381 yards with 23 touchdowns against only six interceptions and posting a 101.2 passer rating. He also led four fourth-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives, giving the Packers a proven answer when games tightened late.
The Week 1 contrast is clear: Minnesota is betting on Murray’s experience and mobility in a new offense, while Green Bay enters with Love established in LaFleur’s system. Murray gets the home debut, but Love brings the more recent continuity with his team.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings bottom line: Minnesota brings a strong defense and a new veteran quarterback, while Green Bay counters with greater offensive continuity despite missing two major contributors.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Football Betting Trends
- The Packers have gone 6-2 on the over in their last 8 regular season away games.
- Green Bay has a 4-3 straight-up record in their last 7 regular season away games.
- Also, the Packers are 1-2 against the spread as underdogs in their last 3 regular season games.
- The Vikings have a perfect 5-0 straight-up record in their last 5 regular season games.
- Minnesota is 3-0 against the spread as favorites in their last 3 regular season games.
- Additionally, the Vikings have gone 3-0 straight-up in their last 3 regular season home games.
Packers Vikings Free Pick: Vikings -1.5
Here is my Packers Vikings free pick: I’m laying the 1.5 points with Minnesota at home. This is a short number in a division game, and I prefer Minnesota’s setup.
The Vikings allowed only 19.6 points per game last season and finished second against the pass, giving Kyler Murray some room to settle into Kevin O’Connell’s offense.
Green Bay still has Jordan Love, but the offense opens without Josh Jacobs. That matters against a Minnesota defense that was already difficult to move through the air.
The Vikings don’t need Murray to carry them in Week 1.
He has Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson around him, plus the mobility to create when Green Bay’s coverage holds. The Packers will also be without Micah Parsons, removing an elite pass rusher from Jonathan Gannon’s defense.
I’m not ignoring Green Bay’s 9-7-1 record or Love’s 23-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year. The Packers are dangerous, which is why I wouldn’t want to lay a bigger number here.
Minnesota won five straight to finish last season, including the 16-3 finale against Green Bay, although the Packers rested several starters. I won’t overrate that result, but I like Minnesota’s defense and home field in the opener.
One kick can settle this. I’ll trust the Vikings to get it. Minnesota -1.5 gets my money.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Leading the way.#Skol pic.twitter.com/aDBoorhAZo
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 3, 2026
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