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Eagles vs. Jaguars Under 42.5

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London | Sunday, October 11, 2026, 9:30 AM ET

The Jaguars are riding high. They just won on the road in Cincinnati, Trevor Lawrence has been efficient, and the defense is allowing only 13.3 PPG.

The Eagles are a different story, especially on offense. They went 0-for-12 on third down last week against the Rams, and they're 0-4 ATS, the only team in the league without an ATS win this season.

The injury report doesn't help. Davante Smith is out, and I don't expect Saquon Barkley to play. Backup Tank Bigsby is on IR, so Will Shipley will get the carries. It hardly matters, because you can't run on this Jags defense. That leaves Philadelphia one-dimensional, and they haven't shown me anything to suggest they can move the ball consistently.

Any fight from the Eagles will have to come from their defense, and I think it will be good. Quinyon Mitchell should be back, and this unit has had success against Lawrence before. In their 2024 meeting, they held him to 16-of-31 for 169 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Eagles have also won five straight in this series. I think the line is inflated, so I lean Eagles to cover, but the best play is on the total.

Hotspur Stadium has produced low-scoring results lately. The last seven games there have averaged 40.4 points. The Eagles need to turn this into a defensive slugfest, and I don't know how they score against this Jags defense. We'll take the Under, even with the total already down 2 points.

Take Eagles vs. Jaguars Under 42.5.

Let's cash some tickets!

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Chargers +3.5 

The under in London is the number the injury report already priced, and then stopped short of. Philadelphia and Jacksonville are at Tottenham on Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET. The Jaguars are 3-1 and laying 7.5, about -370. The Eagles are 2-2 and getting 7.5, about +295. The total opened 44.5. It is 41.5 or 42 now. Pro-football-reference has the game at 42. That two-point drop is the market admitting the Eagles cannot score. It is not enough of a drop.

Philadelphia is the reason. They are at 18.8 points a game, 26th, and 178.3 passing yards, 30th. Jalen Hurts has 713 yards through the air. Saquon Barkley has 182 on the ground and is not expected to play. Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve. DeVonta Smith, the leading receiver at 235 yards, is questionable with a hamstring. Dallas Goedert is questionable. Hollywood Brown is questionable. Lane Johnson retired. Cam Jurgens was traded. The center is questionable. That is a third-string back, a third center, and a receiver room held together with hope, on a seven-hour flight, for a 9:30 kick. Last week they put up 20 in the first half against the Rams and got shut out in the second. The final was 24-20. A team that can go silent for 30 minutes at home is not a team you buy the over on in London.

Jacksonville is the other half, and it is not a pinball defense. They have allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3 a game, and they lead the league with six interceptions. Trevor Lawrence is completing 69.2 percent with eight touchdowns and two picks. Bhayshul Tuten is the run game. Liam Coen's group is 3-1 and playing like it. A short Eagles offense against a defense that has not given up 20 a game is how a 42 becomes a 34. The Jaguars can win this and still leave the over dead. That is the entire bet.

The spread is the sucker ticket sitting next to it. The look-ahead was Jacksonville -4.5. It is -7.5 because Barkley and Smith hit the report. Laying more than a touchdown at Tottenham, after a three-point steam, on a morning kick, is how London games eat a card. Jacksonville is the better team. The total is the number that matches the bodies.

Bet the under in an NFL game in London when one team is under 20 points a game and missing its lead back. The Eagles' scoring this season: 18.8 a game through four, 26th. The only recent page is a 24-20 loss in which the second half was a zero. One shutout half is not a system. It is the last tape, and the total has already moved two points toward it.

Bet the under against a defense allowing 14 or fewer points a game when the opponent is ranked 25th or worse in scoring. Jacksonville has allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3. Philadelphia is 26th in scoring. The posted total is 42, down from 44.5. Average points in a Jaguars game so far sits near 26 if you only count what they have given up and what a bottom-five offense has managed. The 42 is still a gift.

Shop it. A 42 is the number. A 41.5 is better. If it drifts back to 43 because the public sees Trevor Lawrence and a London shootout that is not on the sheet, take the under and ignore the story. Do not pair it with the Jaguars -7.5. The side is a different bet, and the juice on that moneyline is a tax. The total is the one the injury report wrote and the board only half believed.