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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-10-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs +105 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Rubby de la Rosa pitched quite well before struggling in his most recent outing. I also know he's enjoyed some surprising success at Coors Field in recent outings. However, the way he struggled at Miami seemed to be a bit of a mechanical flaw that I don't see him turning around from one outing to the next. Also, he's now 0-2 on the road this season with a 5.22 ERA. The Diamondbacks right-hander also got rocked by the Rockies when he faced them in Arizona last July. Overall, de la Rosa has allowed 9 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts against Colorado. The Rockies are averaging 6.4 runs per game against Diamondbacks pitching this season and will be looking to respond after yesterday's 10-5 loss. They may respond at the plate but the Rockies pitching continues to be a concern. At home, the Colorado bullpen has a 6.28 ERA this season. That's particularly bad news today because certainly the Colorado bullpen may be called upon early in this one. That's because southpaw Chris Rusin is getting the start for the Rockies. He pitches to contact but managed to have surprising success against the Diamondbacks in Arizona last month. Now the Dbacks get a quick second look at him though and he is coming off of a start where he got absolutely hammered at San Francisco. Overall, Rusin is 11-19 with a 5.11 ERA and a .296 BAA in his MLB career. In the past 4 years, he was hit at .308 or better in 3 of the 4 seasons. He's facing a Diamondbacks team that has a lofty .457 slugging percentage and has averaged 5 runs in their games against left-handed starters this season. The Dbacks have won 4 straight games and the over is 17-6 the last 3 seasons when Arizona enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The over is 9-4 in Rockies home games this season and the weather should be ideal for the ball to again carry very well tonight. There were 13 extra base hits in last  night's games and I expect more of the same tonight. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-10-16 | A's v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-13 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 9.5 runs -105 in Boston vs Oakland @ 7:10 ET - We rode the over to an easy victory yesterday as this game went over the total before the mid-point of the game and it ended up being the highest scoring game on the board with 21 runs scored. I look for a much different result today. Even though the A's Sean Manaea has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts this season, the southpaw has been victimized a bit by big hits. The left-hander has allowed only 11 hits in his 10 innings of work this season and Manaea has an edge on the mound today because Boston has struggled against southpaws this season. In their 4 games against left-handed starters this season the Red Sox have just one win and the under is a PERFECT 4-0 in those games. Boston hit just .181 in the four games and averaged only 2.2 runs per game. The A's are also likely to struggle at the plate. I know that Sean O'Sullivan has some unimpressive big league numbers but he has some good MLB experience under his belt and now returns to the majors based on pitching very well in AAA again this season. He has not started against the A's in five years so the hitters will have unfamiliarity with his offerings. I expect a bit of a pitchers duel at Fenway Park tonight after yesterday's crazy high-scoring match-up. The under is 17-8 the last 3 seasons in A's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Red Sox games are 39-22 to the under in May games the past three seasons combined. *8* UNDER 9.5 in Boston |
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05-09-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs -110 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - Archie Bradley is only 23 years old and had an ERA up near 6 in his 8 starts with the Diamondbacks last season. He is making a spot start here for Arizona and this is just his 2nd start at the MLB level in 2016. If his first one is any indication, it should be a rough outing for Bradley. He got rocked at pitcher-friendly San Francisco 3 weeks ago and now he has to make his first-ever Coors Field start and the wind direction could be switching around early in this game and actually blowing out. Even if it's blowing in a bit in the early stages, the thin air of Colorado will help the carry of the ball and Bradley is going to get rocked by a Rockies lineup that routinely hits around .300 in their home games year in and year out. The Diamondbacks should also enjoy success at the plate tonight. Tyler Chatwood has struggled in his home starts this season. Also, the right-hander's last significant time as a starter (2013 season) shows this is no fluke as he got hit at a .294 clip in his home starts that season at Coors Field. Even earlier in his career he was hit a .310 clip in home games for a full season as a starter for the Angels. The Diamondbacks saw him last month so that will help them hone in on his offerings tonight. The Dbacks are off of a series sweep at Atlanta where they hit the ball well and they are 16-6 to the over the last three seasons combined when they are on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Rockies are 8-4 to the over in their home games this season. Rockies bullpen has ERA at home up near 6 so far this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-09-16 | A's v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -115 in Boston vs Oakland @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox should pound Sonny Gray in this one. The A's right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in the 9 innings spanning his last two starts. Simply put, Gray is just not himself right now and the BoSox have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game with a .296 batting average in their games this season where they faced a right-handed starter. The A's should also enjoy success at the plate as they "tee off" against Clay Buchholz in this one. The Red Sox right-hander finally got a win in his most recent start but he still has a 5.71 ERA on the season and he has been hammered by Oakland throughout his career. Buchholz has a 6.81 ERA in 8 career starts against the A's. 6 of those 8 games went over the total and that includes last season's lone match-up where he gave up 10 hits in a start where he got knocked out in the 5th inning. As a road dog of +100 to +125 the A's have gone 4-2 to the over this season. The over is 15-10 in Boston's games against right-handed starters so far this year. Overall, 4 of Oakland's last 5 games have gone over the total and another one should be expected Monday. *8* OVER in Boston |
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05-08-16 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs -120 in Atlanta vs Arizona @ 1:35 ET - Yesterday's 4-2 Arizona win stayed under the total. However, prior to that, the Braves were a perfect 6-0 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record this season. The over is 5-2 this season in Atlanta games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 6-2 in Braves games against left-handed starters this season. The over is 4-2 in Diamondbacks day games this season. Also, Arizona has played 4 Sunday games so far this season and not a single one of them stayed under the total. Look for the Dbacks lineup to feast on the offerings of Mike Foltynewicz this afternoon. His first start of the season was Monday against the Mets and he got completely rocked. He faced the Diamondbacks twice last season and his team lost each start as he struggled against Arizona and compiled an 8.70 ERA in those two starts. Pat Corbin gets the start for the Diamondbacks here. Though he has a good history against the Braves, Corbin comes into this start in poor current form. The southpaw has a 7.41 ERA in his last 3 starts and he's allowed 5 homers in these 3 outings. By the way, Foltynewicz allowed 3 homers in his season debut Monday. The weather will be ideal for the ball to carry well today as the air density index is very low in Atlanta today. The ball will carry well and it's a mild afternoon ball game game conducive to plenty of offense this afternoon for Braves fans. Both teams should pile up the runs in this one as the Braves bullpen also continues to be an issue. *8* OVER in Atlanta |
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05-08-16 | Phillies -101 v. Marlins | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -101 @ Miami @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies rallied late for a 4-3 win last night and that is the kind of a win that can put an end to another team's momentum while boosting the morale of the victories team. The Phillies had been very hot but then lost 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 so they really needed that victory and will likely build on it today as the Phils have been a streaky team so far this season. The Marlins had won 4 straight and 11 of their last 12 before yesterday's loss and that (a late loss) is one of the toughest for a team to bounce back from. The key here is that the Phillies have a large pitching edge in this match-up. Aaron Nola has dominated each of his last three starts even though they've been on the road. Overall he is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP in his four road starts this season. He has struck out 29 while walking just 4 in those 4 outings. This is in stark contrast to the Marlins Justin Nicolino. The Miami right-hander pitched well in his first start this season but this will be just his third start of the season and, in his second start Nicolino gave up 4 earned runs in just 6 innings of work. He also has 5 walks against only 2 strikeouts so far this season. The Marlins are 3-5 this season (and 46-65 the last three seasons combined) in day games. They have lost 3 of their 4 Sunday games this season while Philadelphia has won 3 of their 4 Sunday games this year. The Phillies also are 8-3 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-07-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -110 in St Louis vs Pittsburgh @ 2:15 ET - The ball is known for carrying well in day games in St Louis and the weather should be especially helpful in that regard today. Warm afternoon weather with the wind blowing out and with the air fairly dry. The ball will carry very well today and that's bad news for the pitchers in this one as they were already struggling coming into this outing. The Pirates Jeff Locke has pitched a little better in his last two starts but Pittsburgh is still only 1-4 in his starts this season as he's compiled a 4.72 ERA that certainly could be much worse considering his 1.84 WHIP. The right-hander has an atrocious 2.07 WHIP in his road outings this season and got rocked for 4 earned runs in just 5 innings of work in his most recent start at St Louis. The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound and he's only 2-3 this season with a 6.68 ERA. Also, his two home starts have seen the veteran right-hander compile a 7.94 ERA. In his last 3 starts against the Pirates Wainwright has compiled a 5.00 ERA and he allowed three homers in his last home start versus Pittsburgh. Both of Wainwright's home starts have gone over the total and 3 of Locke's last 4 starts have gone over the total. The over is 7-1 in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is also 7-3 in Pittsburgh's day games this season. This will be the 5th Saturday game for the Cardinals so far this season and they've yet to record an under on a Saturday. Look for that streak to remain intact with today's result on a great day for baseball (particularly hitting the baseball) this afternoon at Busch Stadium. *10* OVER in St Louis |
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05-07-16 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs -110 in Detroit vs Texas @ 1:10 ET - Pelfrey gets the start for the Tigers and he's 0-4 with a 7.10 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP so far this season. He has more walks than strikeouts on the season and has particularly struggled at home - 9.57 ERA. Griffin gets the start for the Rangers this afternoon. He has allowed 9 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 10 innings of work in his two career starts at Comerica Park. Though Griffin has pitched well early this season he has faced a number of struggling lineups. That changes today as the Rangers righty faces a Tigers team that, prior to yesterday's 1 run effort against a tough Cole Hamels, had scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in going 5-3 in their 8 prior games. This is the first time this season that the Rangers are a small road favorite and the past two seasons Texas has had just 8 unders in 23 games where they had a price of -100 to -125 on the road. The Tigers are 10-2 to the over in day games this season and also 8-3 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record. Detroit is also 15-7 to the over against right-handed starters and the Tigers have gone 8-4 to the over in their home games this season. Both teams have solid bullpens but based on this starting pitching match-up, the power of these two lineups and the fact that the weather forecast is calling for the wind to be blowing out by the time the bullpens are involved here has me expecting a very high-scoring game. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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05-06-16 | Rangers +123 v. Tigers | 5-1 | Win | 123 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Texas Rangers Money Line +125 @ Detroit @ 7:10 ET - You don't get many chances to take a team like the Rangers with Cole Hamels on the mound and get an underdog price. Of course the key reason that is the case today is because Jordan Zimmerman is going for the Tigers and he has a 5-0 mark on the young season and has compiled an amazing 0.55 ERA so far this season. The key to fading Zimmerman here is that there is a little more than meets the eye with his numbers so far this season. Yes the Tigers righty definitely deserves credit for his fantastic start to the season but 4 of the 5 teams he's faced are teams near the bottom of the majors in run production so far this season. Also, Zimmerman has allowed 26 hits in the 26 innings spanning his last 4 starts. In other words, it's not like he's been unhittable. As for Hamels, the Rangers southpaw is coming off his toughest start so far this season so you can fully expect a bounce back as he had gone 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in April before struggling his first start to open up May in a situation where he was giving a team a quick "second look" as the Angels were facing him for the 2nd time already this season. The Rangers have won 14 of 22 night games this season and the Tigers have struggled against lefties this season. Detroit is 1-4 in games against southpaw starters this season and the Tigers hit just .213 in those games and averaged only 3.4 runs per game. Look for Zimmerman to finally get roughed up today as he faces a tougher lineup and look for Hamels to return to winning form after a rare, tough start. *8* TEXAS |
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05-06-16 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati vs Milwaukee @ 7:10 ET - Tyler Cravy gets the start for the Brewers only because Wily Peralta was placed on the paternity list (birth of daughter). Cravy will be limited to just 85 pitches as he had only made one start at Triple A before this call up. This is bad news for a Milwaukee bullpen whose ERA is over 5 and that, on the road, has a WHIP up near 2.00 so, in other words base runners galore. This has played a big role in the Brewers going over the total in 8 straight games and 10 of their last 11. As for the Reds, they are starting Tim Adleman who had a good outing in his first this season but whom will be making just the 2nd MLB start of his career. The Reds have gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 games and their bullpen has had a disastrous start to the season including a 6.53 ERA and only 1 save in 6 opportunities so far. The over is 7-3 this season when the Reds are off of a win and also 11-5 in divisional games. The Brewers have had just 7 unders in their 28 games this season. Milwaukee is averaging nearly 6 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Reds are averaging nearly 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. With two inexperienced starting pitchers on the mound, two weak bullpens, and some confident sticks loaded up in each lineup, this one should fly over the total. *10* OVER in Cincinnati |
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05-06-16 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 6-8 | Win | 105 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington @ 2:20 ET - Mild afternoon weather expected at Wrigley Field. Also, even though there won't be a lot of wind today, what wind there is will be blowing out. It will be a great day for the hitters. I knew we would get a favorable total here because of these starting pitchers have had solid season so far. That is why we're getting a low total on this game even though the weather is conducive to an over and even though both lineups are plenty capable of piling up runs. The Nationals lost 5-2 here yesterday but the Nats had won 5 of their 6 prior games and Washington averaged 6.3 runs per game during that hot streak. As for the Cubs, they have averaged 6.1 runs per game on the season! Of course this has played a big role in the over going 16-9-2 in Cubs games so far this season. Each of Lackey's last two starts against Washington resulted in overs. As for Scherzer, although he is off of a strong start, he had previously given up 8 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his two prior starts. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Washington's Friday games this season. The Cubs are 13-6 to the over in their games against right-handed starters. The Cubs also have had just 2 unders in their 10 day games this season! *8* OVER in Chicago Cubs |
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05-05-16 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 8.5 runs in Cleveland vs Detroit @ 6:10 ET - With the Indians 4-0 win yesterday, Cleveland games have now stayed under the total in 4 of their last 5. The Indians are only hitting .247 on the season. The Tigers have averaged just 1.6 runs per game in their five games against the Indians this season. They are likely to struggle again this evening. Not only is it going to be a raw, chilly night with a north wind blowing in as well, the fact is that the Indians Trevor Bauer is going to be much stronger tonight now that he's not on a strict pitch count. In his first start this season, last week, he was limited but tonight he'll be turned loose and Bauer is healthy again and he's tough when he's commanding his pitches like he is right now. The Tigers will have Michael Fullmer on the mound and, like Bauer, he'll be making his 2nd start of the season and, like Bauer, I expect him to go even deeper into this game after a solid MLB debut. Fullmer did a good job of keeping the ball down in his MLB debut and 6 of the 7 hits he allowed were singles. He got a lot of ground ball outs and some nice strike outs as well. The Tigers bullpen has been stellar this season while the Indians bullpen has been solid as well. Factoring in the weather as well that makes this the perfect spot for a solid under. You might expect a "crazy" game after yesterday's shutout win for the Indians but the Tigers are actually 2-0 to the under when off of a shutout loss. Also, the under is 16-9 in Indians games the past three seasons when they are off of a shutout win. In 14 night games this season for the Tribe, only 5 overs have resulted. This evening's game should stay well under the total as well. *10* UNDER in Cleveland |
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05-05-16 | Phillies +1.5 v. Cardinals | 0-4 | Loss | -131 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -130 @ St Louis @ 1:45 ET - The Phillies suffered a tight loss yesterday but that was just their 3rd loss in their last 13 games. I look for the Phils to bounce back today but if they do fall short I would expect it to play out much like last night's game did where Philadelphia lost it in the bottom of the 9th to lose by a single run. So I am grabbing the run line here with the small juice making it a worthwhile investment to have the run and a half. The Cardinals had lost 5 of 6 before yesterday's win. The Cards have lost each of the last 3 starts that Jaime Garcia has made. The St Louis southpaw also is 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Phillies and he has given up 12 earned runs in the 14 innings spanning those three outings. The Cardinals are 0-5 in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season. The Phillies are 9-2 this season in all games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Odds makers are expected a lower-scoring game here as they hung a 7 on this game and the Phillies should get a quality start from Jerad Eickhoff. The young righty's stats are a little skewed by one bad start at Milwaukee this season. In his other 4 starts this season, Eickhoff has held opponents to just 7 earned runs in 25 innings! More of the same today. *8* PHILADELPHIA Run Line |
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05-04-16 | Diamondbacks +165 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Arizona Diamonds Money Line +165 @ Miami @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins are heating up and got the win yesterday but previously Miami was just 2-7 at home this season. Although the Diamondbacks have been streaky this season, Arizona was a solid 7-3 in road games before yesterday's loss. The point is that Wednesday offers a great value opportunity to back a big road dog that has a great shot at the upset win here. The Diamondbacks will have a red hot Rubby De La Rosa on the mound. He has given up just 1 earned run on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 16 in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. He went 1-0 in 2 starts against Miami last season while compiling a 1.69 ERA. Certainly I respect the Marlins starter, Jose Fernandez, who is slated to get the start in tonight's game. However, Fernandez has walked 13 in his last 4 starts spanning just 23 innings. That's too many free passes and, prior to his last start, he allowed 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his 4 starts this season. That makes the Diamondbacks absolutely worth a shot here considering the pitching match-up as well as the home/road records so far this season. The Dbacks have won 7 of the last 10 games where they were an underdog and I love the value here with backing them as a pup once again. *10* ARIZONA |
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05-04-16 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 7.5 runs in San Diego vs Colorado @ 3:40 ET - These teams went over the total yesterday despite only 14 hits in the game. It was truly a crazy game by Petco Park standards because there were 3 homers hit and 7 of the 9 runs scored in the game were scored with 2 outs in the inning. Very unusual results and it burned me and my clients as we had the under here. I won't hesitate to come right back with the under after a crazy result yesterday that had "over players" cashing a "lucky" play to say the least. Before yesterday's ridiculous result the Padres had recorded 4 straight unders and, based on today's pitching match-up, the pattern of unders should continue. The Rockies have Tyler Chatwood on the mound and he's 3-0 with a sparkling 0.46 ERA and 0.92 WHIP this season in his road starts. He'll be opposed by the Padres Cesar Vargas who has made two starts and has a stellar 0.87 ERA so far. The Padres hitters haven't seen Chatwood since 2013 and he dominated them in both starts that season and the Rockies hitters have never seen Vargas. This shapes up to be a pitchers duel at pitcher friendly Petco Park Wednesday afternoon. Look for the under to improve to 9-5 in Padres games against teams with a losing record this season. *8* UNDER in San Diego |
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05-04-16 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 7 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7 runs in Pittsburgh vs Chicago Cubs @ 12:35 ET - Of course Jon Lester of the Cubs is off to a great start this season and is a solid left-handed starter. However, therein lies one of the keys to this play. The Pirates have the #1 ranking in the league for OPS against southpaws this season. OPS is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage and Pittsburgh had dominated against lefties this season. That said, don't be surprised if they do some damage against Lester this afternoon. At the same time, even though Juan Nicasio has pitched quite well for the Pirates early this season, the Pittsburgh right-hander is facing a Cubs team that is averaging 7 runs per game on the road this season. Overall, over their last 10 games, the Cubs have gone 8-2 while averaging 7.2 runs per game! The Cubs have had just 1 under in their last 11 games. The Pirates have stayed under the total just 5 times in their last 21 games! Both teams have solid lineups and with this total now dropping to a 7 in some books, there is even more value with this selection. *8* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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05-03-16 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 runs -110 in San Diego vs Colorado @ 10:10 ET - When people think of the Rockies offense often comes to mind. However, they are a different team away from hitter-friendly Coors Field. Yesterday's 2-1 loss easily stayed under the total and that means that Colorado has had just 3 overs in their last 11 road games! Though there were 15 hits in yesterday's game, 13 of them were singles. The Padres are known for their struggles at the plate and Petco Field is absolutely a pitchers park. That is a big part of the reason that Andrew Cashner has great career numbers in his home starts with San Diego. Already this season Cashner has been strong at home. He's coming off of a rare rough road outing but, in his prior two starts (both at home) he allowed just 1 earned run in 6 innings in each start. In his last home start versus the Rockies, the Padres right-hander gave up just 1 earned run in 7 and 1/3 innings of work. Cashner will be opposed by Eddie Butler of the Rockies tonight. One must be careful in looking at his stats both in the majors and minors. That's because his home games at the MLB level are at hitter friendly Coors and in the minor leagues his recent action has been at AAA Albuquerque and they play their home games in one of the most hitter friendly venues in all of minor league baseball. Butler struck out 4 in 2 and 1/3 innings in his first appearance (out of the bullpen) for the Rockies this season. He's capable of holding the Padres in check here as they went into yesterday's game hitting just .219 in home games this season! The Rockies bullpen also, as you would expect, is much better on the road compared to at home. The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 games. Look for another pitchers duel tonight. *10* UNDER 7.5 in San Diego |
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05-03-16 | Phillies +148 v. Cardinals | 1-0 | Win | 148 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *7* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +145 @ St Louis @ 8:15 ET - Fantastic underdog line value here is too good to pass up. The Phillies got hammered by the Cardinals yesterday but they had previously won 9 of their last 10 games before the loss. Also, the Cards had lost 4 straight and averaged just 1.5 runs per game in those four defeats before they finally got on track yesterday. As quickly as St Louis got going yesterday they may just as quickly get shut down tonight. The Cards have never faced Aaron Nola and the Phillies right-hander is 1-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in his three road starts this season. He is quite likely to outduel Michael Wacha who has been inconsistent this season. The Cardinals righty is coming off of a strong start but he had 4 walks with 0 strikeouts in his prior start. Wacha just hasn't really been "himself" yet this season and the righty got hammered by the Phillies in both outings last season and compiled a 7.59 ERA in the two starts versus Philadelphia. The Phils have thrived in low-scoring games this season and are 8-2 (including 4-1 on the road) in games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. The Cardinals are 3-7 (including 0-4 at home) in games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. The Phillies are worth the investment here, especially considering the favorable price. *7* PHILADELPHIA money line +145 |
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05-02-16 | Nationals v. Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 runs -115 in Kansas City vs Washington @ 8:15 ET - The Nationals have had just 8 overs in their 24 games this season while the Royals have had just 5 overs in their 24 games this season. Based on the pitching match-up for Monday, this looks like another great spot for the under. Gio Gonzalez has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP so far this season. Edinson Volquez is coming off of a rough start so I fully expect him to respond as he's back home for this start and the Royals right-hander has a 0.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his three home starts this season. His most recent was on the road and was truly an aberration as he had pitched well in all four of his starts so far this season (including a road outing) before that ugly outing last week. Washington hasn't faced Volquez since 2014 and he held them to 2 earned runs in over 12 innings of work in his two starts against them that season. Gonzalez struggled against the Royals when he last faced them but that was in 2013 and that was the only start he has had against them since the 2011 season. A lack of familiarity is almost always an edge for the pitcher and the Nationals left-hander is throwing extremely well so far this season. The Royals are averaging just 2.7 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Nationals are hitting just .234 on the season. Both clubs bullpens have been fantastic this season. The under has cashed in 9 of 11 Royals home games this season. In 12 road games this season the Nationals have had just 3 overs! *10* UNDER in Kansas City |
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05-02-16 | Angels v. Brewers OVER 9 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs -105 in Milwaukee vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:20 ET - Jered Weaver gets this start for the Angels and, while he "only" allowed 9 hits in 6 innings in his most recent start, most of the hits were extra base hits! In fact the veteran right-hander was somewhat fortunate that he only allowed 4 earned runs in that start. Keep in mind that start came against a Royals team that is not hitting the ball well at all early this season. Monday Weaver will be facing a Brewers club that got their sticks going in yesterday's 14-5 blowout win. That was the 6th time in the last 11 games that Milwaukee had scored at least 5 runs in a game. The Brewers are averaging 5 runs per game at home this season and they should get to Weaver early and often in this one. Milwaukee sends Jimmy Nelson to the mound Monday. The Brewers right-hander has allowed 16 hits and 9 walks in his last 18 innings of work and that includes getting hit hard in an inter-league start against the Twins two starts back and Nelson was at home for that start just like he is for tonight's interleague start. Look for him to get roughed up again here as the Angels are off of a 9-6 win at Texas yesterday and have now won 5 of their last 8 games thanks in part to an offense that is averaging 5 runs per game during this stretch. Each teams bullpen has had some struggles too with both pens blowing 3 of their 9 save opportunities so far this season. The over is 5-1 in Brewers interleague games this season and 28-17 in games against the AL the past 3 seasons combined. The over is 13-5 in Brewers games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons combined. Look for the Milwaukee over to improve to 12-4 this season in games against right-handed starters. *8* OVER in Milwaukee |
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05-01-16 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs -105 in Oakland vs Houston @ 4:05 ET - The A's Rich Hill has an interesting dichotomy that has developed so far this season. He's been great on the road but struggled at home. As we enter the 2nd month of the season this will be Hill's 3rd home start of the young season. Though he's been lights out on the road this season, the Oakland southpaw has gone 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA at home and that ERA could easily have been even worse as Hill has a 2.29 WHIP in home games. Putting baserunners on against a powerful Astros lineup can prove to be dangerous. Yes, Houston has struggled at the plate this season as shown by their batting average but they are still putting together a solid slugging percentage due to good power in the lineup. After getting shutout yesterday I look for the Houston bats to respond today and they certainly will need to because their starting pitcher, Doug Fister, is struggling miserably. Fister is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has given up 5 homers in his 4 starts this season and he walked 7 in his most recent outing. Fister has given up 15 earned runs on 29 hits in just 15 and 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts against the A's. Oakland's bats should do plenty of damage here in a day game with the wind blowing out. The over is 10-4 in Houston road games this season and the over is 3-1 in Astros games against left-handed starters this season. The Houston bullpen has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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04-30-16 | Rockies +163 v. Diamondbacks | 5-2 | Win | 163 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *7* Colorado Rockies Money Line +165 @ Arizona @ 8:10 ET - The value here is simply too good to pass up. With their 9-0 win yesterday, the Rockies are now 4-1 in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The Diamondbacks are now a horrible 1-7 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this year. Though Zach Greinke is a great pitcher overall, he is still struggling to find consistency this season. He has continued to struggle at his new home, hitter-friendly Chase Field, and I expect that to continue Saturday. Greinke got the win in his most recent start despite getting crushed at home by the Cardinals. The veteran right-hander is 1-2 now in home starts but has compiled an ugly 9.72 ERA in those outings. He has given up 12 earned runs in his last 10 innings of work (2 starts) against the Rockies and Colorado comes into this game confident at the plate. That's because, even on the road this season, the Rockies are scoring well with 5.2 runs per game away from home so far this season. The Diamondbacks are 37-51 against left-handed starters the past three seasons and southpaw Chris Rusin gets the start for the Rockies tonight. He had been pitching out of the bullpen but has been throwing so well that Colorado decided to bring him back to the rotation. He is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Dbacks and Arizona is struggling at the plate again with just 2.25 runs per game in their last 4 games. Great line value with the big dog here and I won't pass it up. *7* COLORADO |
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04-30-16 | Blue Jays +123 v. Rays | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line +130 @ Tampa Bay @ 6:10 ET - The Rays lost again yesterday as their bats continue to struggled. Tampa Bay scored just 1 run yesterday and it was the 9th time in the last 11 games that the Rays have been held to 3 runs or less! Tampa Bay has won just 4 of their last 9 games. The Blue Jays haven't been much better as they are just 6-6 in their last 12 games. However, the key is that Toronto is at least getting better offensive productions as the Jays have scored 4 runs or more in 8 of those 12 games. Tampa Bay, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 1-5 this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Toronto went 56-34 in games on artificial turf last season while the Rays are below .500 the past 3 seasons combined on artificial turf. Chris Archer gets the start for Tampa Bay today and he finally got on track with a big start against the Orioles last weekend. However, Archer has struggled so badly this season (and had lost all 4 starts prior to the win over Baltimore) that I am not convinced he's going to be able to duplicate the success he had against the O's. The Rays righty is 0-2 with 12 earned runs allowed in less than 14 innings of work in his last 3 starts against the Jays. Toronto will have J.A. Happ on the mound today. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA so far this season. He also has held Tampa Bay to only 2 earned runs in 13 innings spanning his last two starts against them. The Rays are hitting an ugly .210 at home and averaging a ridiculous 2.6 runs per game in home contests so far this season. Grab the fantastic underdog line value here. *10* TORONTO |
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04-29-16 | Tigers +120 v. Twins | Top | 9-2 | Win | 120 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line +120 @ Minnesota @ 8:10 ET - Michael Fullmer makes his MLB debut tonight and he's earned this opportunity. I fully expect him to enjoy great success as the Twins have one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Minnesota has averaged just 3.5 runs per game so far this season and is hitting just .242 so far on the year. The Tigers offense comes into this game on a hot streak as they have scored 7 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games. Detroit, in their games against right-handed starters, have averaged 5 runs per game and hit .272 so far this season. The Tigers should pound Phil Hughes. The veteran right-hander allowed 10 earned runs in just 13 innings in his last 3 starts against Detroit. Also, Hughes is just 1-3 this season despite the fact he's had the added benefit of facing NL teams 2 of his 4 starts. He's been an AL guy and his numbers through the years tell the story as he's compiled at least a 4.19 ERA in 7 of his 9 seasons thusfar. Last season he got hit at a .293 clip for the 2nd time in the past three seasons. He is a very hittable pitcher and the Tigers will pound him again tonight just like they did last season. Meanwhile, with the Tigers not familiar with Fullmer, look for the young hurler to enjoy some success tonight. He had a 10-3 record with an era in the mid-twos last season in the minors and already had 20 strikeouts in 15 innings of AAA ball so far this season. He has earned this call-up and is likely to prove his worth quickly in this start tonight. The added benefit is getting plenty of run support and the Tigers can be expected to jump on Hughes. *10* DETROIT |
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04-29-16 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 -105 in Boston vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - Henry Owens first start of the season was at Houston Sunday and it was a disaster. Facing the Yankees tonight is unlikely to help matters for the young southpaw. He is 0-2 with a 13.49 ERA in his two career starts against the Yanks and both were recent as they were in August and September of last season. This means the Yankees should have no trouble with the offerings of Owens tonight. The Red Sox will be facing the Yanks Masahiro Tanaka. Though he's off to a strong start this season he has been facing opponents that have been struggling at the plate early this season. Now he takes on a Red Sox team that, in their games against right-handed starters, has averaged 5.5 runs per game and hit .291 so far this season. Also, Boston has seen plenty of Tanaka in his career and they've enjoyed success against him as evidenced by his 5.13 ERA. The over is 6-3 in Boston's last 9 games. The over is 6-1 in Owens' starts against the Yanks in his career and the over is 6-1 in Tanaka's starts against the Red Sox in his career. *8* OVER in Boston |
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04-28-16 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Arizona vs St Louis @ 9:40 ET - The Cardinals lineup is on fire. St Louis has won 4 of their last 5 games and is averaging 9 runs per game in those contests. The Cardinals certainly should stay hot at the plate against Rubby De La Rosa. The Diamondbacks right-hander is off of a strong outing but that doesn't completely erase how tough his early season outings have gone overall. Also, De La Rosa is known for struggling badly against left-handed batters and the Cardinals have some very tough left-handed sticks that will be in the lineup tonight. The Cards aren't the only hot lineup involved tonight. The Diamondbacks have won 7 of their 11 games and have averaged 6.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The over is 9-3 in Arizona's last 12 games and the over has cashed in 5 straight St Louis games. Even though the Cardinals Michael Wacha is certainly a pitcher I respect, he has not been overly impressive this season. He has been hit at a .301 clip so far this season. Also, in his most recent start (at pitcher-friendly Petco Park!) he walked 4 Padres while not recording a single strikeout. That doesn't bode well for what to expect from Wacha tonight at hitter-friendly Chase Field. The Cardinals are 9-3 to the over this season on the road and the over is 9-2 in St Louis games this season when they are off of a win. The over is 9-4 in Diamondbacks home games this season. In the finale of this 4-game set tonight look for another game filled with fireworks from each of the lineups as they make the over a perfect 4-0 in this series. The Dbacks relievers have a 5.26 ERA in home games this season. More struggles against tonight as De La Rosa is likely to have an early exit at the hands of the powerful Cards. *10* OVER in Arizona |
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04-28-16 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Statistically, in all sports, strange anomalies happen. When these occur, it literally "pays" to pay attention for the right opportunity to sweep in and take advantage of the corresponding line value when the time is right. In this case, the timing is perfect for this particular situation. The Orioles have played 8 home games and still have not recorded an over at Camden Yards this season. The under has come in 7 times and 1 total pushed. This is despite the fact that the O's are hitting .285 at home this season. As noted above, some times strange things happen statistically. Tonight we take advantage. This total opened up at a 9 and moved down to an 8.5 rather quickly. No surprise there based on the 7-0 under trend. The key to the over tonight is that the Orioles should pound John Danks. The White Sox southpaw is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP so far this season. The lefty allowed 3 homers in his last start at Camden Yards. Danks at least should receive plenty of run support though. The ChiSox have won 6 straight games and averaged nearly 6 runs per game during this hot streak. They'll be facing Tyler Wilson who is truly just a "spot starter" for Baltimore. The righty was decent, though not spectacular, against the Royals in his first start Saturday and the way Kansas City is struggling it made the win even less impressive. Now Wilson faces a White Sox team that is on fire and that did see him in one of his spot starts last season so they'll be ready here. The ChiSox are on a 20-13 run to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Orioles are 3-1 to the over in their games against left-handed starters so far this season. *8* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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04-27-16 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs +100 in Seattle vs Houston @ 10:10 ET - The Mariners exploded for 11 runs yesterday in what was their 6th win in their last 7 games. The M's are averaging 6 runs per game during this hot streak and Colin McHugh of the Astros is unlikely to slow Seattle down. The Astros right-hander has allowed 28 hits in his last 3 starts and those have spanned just 16 and 1/3 innings. He has been way too hittable and already has an ugly 7.56 ERA on the season. In his last two starts against the Mariners, McHugh has given up 6 homers so that's bad news for tonight as Seattle is certainly "feeling it" with how hot their bats have been of late. As for the Astros sticks, they have certainly struggled so far this season but they were heating up before they were shut down by Nate Karns yesterday. The Astros had averaged 5 runs per game and 11 hits per game in their 3 prior contests. After getting shutdown last night, look for the Astros to bounce back tonight. They are still among league leaders in homers early this season. They'll be facing the Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma. The Seattle right-hander has allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts against the Astros. Iwakuma allowed 2 homers the last time he faced Houston. He also comes into this start having allowed 3 homers in his past two starts overall. The over is 6-2 in McHugh's starts against the Mariners in his career. The over is 8-3 in Astros road games this season. *10* OVER in Seattle |
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04-27-16 | Phillies +1.5 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 Runs -107 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals lost to the Phillies 4-3 yesterday. The Nats managed just 7 hits in the game. Washington has been held to 7 hits or less in 5 of their last 8 games and have been held to 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 9 games. When a lineup is performing the way the Nationals have been they will be in a battle just to win this game. With that said, the likelihood of the Nats winning by two runs or more is even less. Washington is just 5-4 in their last 9 games. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games. The Phillies Jeremy Hellickson is off of a couple tougher outings at home but he's gone 1-0 with a 1.54 WHIP and a 0.60 WHIP in his two road starts this season. The Nationals are hitting just .244 on the season while the Phillies are hitting .258 in road games this season. With each win the young Phils get they are growing in confidence and they'll be ready to do battle with Gio Gonzalez of the Nats today as they get a 2nd shot at him after seeing him on the 17th. The southpaw pitched well that day while, on the 15th, Hellickson struggled against the Nationals. So often these things reverse when there is a quick second shot at an opponent so don't be surprised if Hellickson outduels Gonzalez today. Yesterday was the Phillies 6th win in their last 9 games as a dog of +130 or more. But I am grabbing the +1.5 runs here in case they lose this game by a run. 6 of their last 16 games have been one run games. *8* PHILADELPHIA Run Line +1.5 runs |
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04-27-16 | Padres +168 v. Giants | 9-13 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *7* San Diego Padres Money Line +178 @ San Francisco @ 3:45 ET - This play is all about the value. In looking at San Diego's record certainly one can tell that they are "nothing special" so far this season. However, Andrew Cashner has been throwing well for the Padres and, also, prior to yesterday's 1-0 loss, San Diego had been hitting the ball better of late. San Diego's offense got off to a horrible start this season but in their 9 games leading into yesterday they had averaged 4 runs per game and had at least 9 hits in 6 of their last 9 games. I mention this because the Giants haven't exactly been crushing the ball this season. In fact, San Diego outhit San Francisco yesterday as the Giants were held to just 4 hits which marks the 7th time in their last 12 games that San Francisco has been held to 8 hits or less. Even with yesterday's win the Giants have won just 5 of their last 14 games! The Padres have endured a tough four game stretch but previously had won four of their last six games. Cashner has a 2.65 ERA in his last 3 starts and he's allowed just 7 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. Jeff Samardzija has pitched surprisingly well early this season but he did get hit hard in his only day game start. It is likely no fluke as Samardzija went 11-21 with a 4.47 ERA in day game starts the past three seasons. Giants are overpriced here in my opinion and this is a dream match-up for a big dog player. I'll take a shot here! *7* SAN DIEGO Money Line |
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04-26-16 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 runs -105 in Colorado vs Pittsburgh @ 8:40 ET - There is no denying that Gerrit Cole is a fantastic young hurler. But Coors Field has humbled many great pitchers through the years and Cole will be making his first ever appearance here. Cole lucked out as the weather is more favorable than usual for pitchers at Coors Field tonight. The wind will be blowing out of the north and it will be a chilly night. However, that doesn't change the fact that the air is still very thin air and the density of the air (in this case, thin air) absolutely impacts the movement of pitches as well as how well the ball carries here. Cole will be having to adjust on the fly here in his first ever appearance in this ball park. The fact this total has come down from an 11 to a 10 is providing even more line value with the over in this match-up tonight. Cole was 10-1 in day starts last year but 9-7 in night starts with an ERA a full run higher under the lights. As for the Rockies, Jorge De La Rosa gets the start tonight but has a few strikes against him in this spot. The southpaw had his start pushed back a day because he's 'under the weather'. Also, the lefty is struggling badly so far this season with a 9.86 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP so far this year. He's facing a Pirates team that has seen a surge in confidence surging through the lineup as they have their sticks going with 7.6 runs per game in their last 5 games. On the season the Pirates are hitting .292 overall and they've averaged 7.3 runs per game in their games against left-handed starters. The Rockies are hitting a solid .287 at home this season and this game has all the makings of offensive fireworks after last night's rare result as the Rockies scored just 1 run last night. Look for the over to improve to 12-3 in the Pirates last 15 games! *10* OVER in Colorado |
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04-26-16 | A's -114 v. Tigers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Oakland A's Money Line -114 @ Detroit @ 7:10 ET - The A's are off of a loss yesterday here in Detroit but they still have a 7-3 record on the road so far this season. They have a solid bullpen and also have a huge edge on the mound in terms of the starting pitching match-up Tuesday. Rich Hill has amassed 29 strikeouts in his 19 innings of work this season. The A's southpaw is a perfect 2-0 on the road this season with a 1.50 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. Hill has a huge edge over the Tigers Mike Pelfrey. The veteran right-hander has walked 11 while striking out just 5 in his last 2 starts. He is 0-3 in his three starts this season with an ugly 6.13 ERA and a ridiculous 2.25 WHIP. Pelfrey will again get rocked here as the A's get back on track on the road. He's unlikely to get much run support here either as the Tigers had averaged just 1.6 runs in their past 5 games before their rare big performance yesterday. Hill can (and will) shut them down. The Tigers have never faced Hill in his career which is a big edge for the hurler. As for Pelfrey, he's been crushed by the A's with an 0-2 mark and 14.63 ERA in his career outings against the Athletics. Look for the A's to improve to 8-3 on the road this season while Detroit falls to 1-4 in their games against left-handed starters this season. *8* OAKLAND |
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04-26-16 | Red Sox v. Braves +1.5 | 11-4 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Atlanta Braves Run Line +1.5 runs -105 vs Boston @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox David Price has been inconsistent so far this season and he's been roughed up in two of his last three starts. This has led to an 8.62 ERA in his three most recent starts. Price and the Red Sox are a large road favorite in this game and that is giving exceptional value to the run line home dog in this one. The Braves have an ugly record on the season but in going 4-6 in their last 10 games they have lost by more than a single run just 3 times in those 10 games. Atlanta will have a starting pitcher on the mound who can absolutely keep the Red Sox offense at bay. Matt Wisler gets the start for the Braves and Boston has not faced him in his career. This is a big edge for Wisler and the Braves righty has a solid 3.26 ERA and stellar 0.98 WHIP in his 3 starts this season. The Red Sox, in their last 9 games, only have 3 wins by two runs or more. Solid edge with the run line here in a game where the Braves have the pitcher who is in better current form right now. *8* ATLANTA +1.5 runs |
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04-26-16 | White Sox v. Blue Jays +105 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Toronto Blue Jays Money Line +105 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - R.A Dickey had a rough first inning against the Orioles in his most recent start but he settled down to retire 15 of the next 16 batters he faced. Also, that was a road start for Dickey and he's gone 35-18 in home starts from 2012 to 2015. The veteran knuckle-baller had a 3.11 ERA in home starts last season and held opponents to a .197 batting average. The White Sox will have Chris Sale on the mound and he's put up some impressive numbers early this season but he's faced four of the weakest offenses in the league in his first four starts. Now he faces the dangerous Blue Jays lineup. Toronto's offense got off to a bit of a slow start this season but their sticks are heating up as they've averaged 6 runs and 11 hits per game in their last 4 games. Still the Jays did fall short to the ChiSox yesterday and that means a big response expected tonight. The Blue Jays had won 4 of their last 5 home games before that loss yesterday. Toronto is 52-35 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The White Sox are 29-42 in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Nice home dog value here with Dickey as Sale only went 14-14 on the road the past three seasons combined. *8* TORONTO |
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04-25-16 | Red Sox v. Braves OVER 8 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs +110 in Atlanta vs Boston @ 7:10 ET - The Braves Julio Teheran did battle a fever in his last start but there is another problem that certainly isn't related to a fever because it's been evident in each of his starts this season. Teheran is not getting good velocity on his fastball. This is key because it's really impacting to two of his pitches. His fastball is not where it needs to be and, as a result his change-up is not nearly effective as it should be because there hasn't been enough of a difference between the two pitches. This has played a role in the Braves right-hander compiling a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. Now Teheran has to face a Red Sox team whose lineup is heating up. With their 7-5 win at Houston last night, Boston is averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last five games. The BoSox will have Rick Porcello toeing the rubber tonight. I am well aware of the fact that he's off to a good start this season but, even though the Braves have not been scoring a lot of runs during their current losing streak, Atlanta has been swinging the bats quite well and has been close to a breakthrough with some big innings like they had during their recent 4-game winning streak when they averaged 6.5 runs per game. In their last 4 games the Braves have reached double digits in hits. In fact, Atlanta has 10 hits or more in 6 of their last 8 games. Porcello has a 4.66 ERA so far this season and he has a 4.98 ERA in his career against Atlanta. The Red Sox righty has allowed 5 homers in his 3 starts this season and that could help the Braves (league-worst in homers) to finally get untracked in that department. The over is 8-3 in Atlanta's night games this season and 5-1 in their games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far on the year. Boston is 10-6 to the over against right-handed starters this season and the Red Sox are 6-2 to the over in road games so far this year. *8* OVER in Atlanta |
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04-25-16 | Orioles +120 v. Rays | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles Money Line +120 @ Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Chris Archer of the Rays is not "right" and yet he continues to be priced like the Archer of old. He's 0-4 this season with a 7.32 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP and now faces an Orioles team that is hitting .275 on the season and averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road. The Rays are hitting just .206 and averaging only 2.9 runs per game so far this season against right-handed starters. They'll be facing Kevin Gausman who has looked fantastic in his rehab starts in the minors leading up to his first MLB start of this season. The way the Rays are swinging the bats and the way Gausman is throwing right now, I just don't foresee much success for Tampa Bay at the plate in this one. Conversely, the Orioles should pound Archer as his struggles continue as he's having trouble with his slider and also having trouble with command of his fastball. The Orioles are 11-6 this season overall. The past two seasons the O's went 13-8 in dome games. In divisional action this season, Baltimore is already 6-2 on the year. Their bullpen has a 1.72 ERA on the season. Off of a loss yesterday, the O's bounce back today. The Rays are off of a win yesterday but that was just the 4th time in 12 games this season that Tampa Bay has defeated a right-handed starter. One more interesting stat here relates to Monday games. The Rays are 14-23 on Mondays the past three seasons combined while the Orioles 26-14 on Mondays. Underdog price here, the better lineup, the better bullpen, and an edge in the starting pitching match-up based on current form! That has me raising the level of this play to my highest level. *10* BALTIMORE |
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04-24-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs -110 in Colorado vs LA Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday was a rare pitchers duel at Coors Field and there will be nothing like that today. We also get to take advantage of the line move here with this total moving down from an 11.5 to an 11 as of early Sunday morning. Both of these starting pitchers are likely to struggle today. Alex Wood gets the start for the Dodgers and he's 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP in his two road starts this season. Now he'll be pitching in the toughest venue for pitchers in baseball today. Wood pitcher he in July and September of last year and he allowed 7 earned runs in the first start and 8 earned runs in the second start at Coors Field. Ouch...and I look for more of the same today. His counterpart today is Jordan Lyles. The Rockies right-hander is off of a great start at Cincinnati but his first two starts this season were at home in hitter-friendly Coors. Lyles went winless in those two starts and compiled an 11.25 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP in those two outings. Lyles also is 0-3 with a 6.85 ERA in his career against the Dodgers and that's even with the last three outings all coming at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Today Lyles faces them in the thin air of Denver and I expect he will get crushed and so will Wood in what should be a wild game with plenty of fireworks on offense from both lineups. The Dodgers are 4-2 to the over in road games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs the past three seasons combined. The Rockies are 7-4 to the over in divisional games this season. The over is 93-71 in Rockies home games the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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04-24-16 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in LA Angels vs Seattle @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game between these teams stayed just under the total but that was expected to be a pitchers duel from the outset based on Hernandez squaring off with Santiago. Today's game should be anything BUT a pitchers duel with Miley and Shoemaker matched up! The Angels have been struggling at the plate and that has helped lead the way to 7 straight unders. However, the Mariners Miley should surely bring out the best in them. The Seattle southpaw has an 8.04 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his first three starts this season. The only good news for Mariners fans is that he should get plenty of run support here. Before scoring just 2 runs yesterday, the M's had scored 15 runs on 24 hits in their past two games and they should get back on track against Shoemaker. The Angels right-hander went 1-6 in his home starts last season and got crushed in his only home start so far this season. He has given up 5 homers in his last 3 starts against Seattle. The Mariners are averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season. A lot of unders for both these clubs so far this season but the odds makers knew what they were doing when they set this total at 8.5 as I expect each team to get to at least 4 runs today which, of course, guarantees us no worse than a 5-4 final which would be a winner. *8* OVER 8.5 in LA Angels |
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04-23-16 | Mets v. Braves +131 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line +140 vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Braves Jhoulys Chacin is throwing the ball extremely well. His shoulder has healed up and he's had his cutter working well which is very effective against lefties. Chacin has allowed just 3 earned runs on 9 hits in the 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his two starts. He's walked NONE and struck out 14 and I look for another big outing from here. This pitching match-up is offering us great underdog line value with the Braves. Steven Matz is off of a great start versus Cleveland but he was awful in his first start this season against an NL foe, Miami. Look for him to struggle at Atlanta as well. The Braves had their chance against Matz when they saw him in September as all they got was a solo homer against him but they had 7 other baserunners in just 5 innings but failed to get any big innings put together. They should have their chances again today. The Braves have been swinging the bats better and their 3 game losing streak followed a 4 game winning streak. In these last 7 games Atlanta has averaged nearly 5 runs per game and they've averaged 9 hits per game. They can get some big runs off of Matz and I look for another strong start from Chacin here. This is a contrarian play with a lot of value based on the situation. Braves 4-3 L7 games while Mets just 6-6 L12. They don't merit being this big of a favorite on the road against a starting pitcher who is throwing extremely well right now and will keep them off balance. *10* ATLANTA Money Line +140 |
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04-23-16 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -110 in Houston vs Boston @ 4:05 ET - It is usually best not to put too much weight into one start when you're evaluating starting pitchers. That said, just because Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox is off of a strong start does not erase the fact that he gave up 5 earned runs in EACH of his first two starts this season. As for the Astros, they send a struggling Michael Fiers to the mound. While Buchholz allowed a total of 3 homers in his first two starts this season, Fiers has allowed a ridiculous 6 homers in his first three starts this season. This game should turn into an absolutely slugfest. Boston has 21 runs on 42 hits in their last 3 games. Houston has an ugly 5-12 record on the season and has struggled overall at the plate. But they have hit 24 homers and that is good enough for 3rd in the majors. Last season their 230 homers was 2nd in the majors as only the Blue Jays hit more homers. I look for the Astros bats to get back on track today with some big extra base hits off of Buchholz while the Red Sox stay hot at the plate thanks to the struggles of Fiers. The over is 4-2 in Red Sox road games this season and the over is 3-1 in Astros day games so far this season. *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Houston |
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04-23-16 | A's +136 v. Blue Jays | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Oakland A's Money Line +145 @ Toronto @ 1:05 ET - With their 8-5 win yesterday the A's are now a perfect 7-0 in road games this season. Confidence is surging for the Athletics as, overall, they come into Saturday's early game on a 6 game winning streak. The A's are averaging 5 runs per game during this hot streak and the Blue Jays have scored more than 5 runs just 2 times in 18 games so far this season. In other words, it's likely going to be tough for the Blue Jays to outscore Oakland in this one. I fully realize that J.A. Happ is off to a good start for Toronto this season but the southpaw is facing an A's team that had 19 hits in 17 and 1/3 innings against him last season. The Athletics also simply have so much confidence right now when they step into the batters' box. As for the Blue Jays, they are likely to struggle with a starting pitcher they have not faced before. The A's will have Chris Bassitt on the mound this afternoon and the right-hander has allowed just 8 hits in the 14 innings spanning his last two starts. Look for the Athletics to improve to 8-2 this season when they are off of a win and to also improve to 8-0 in road games on the year. The Jays are an ugly 3-6 this season when off of a loss and their recent slump continues as they lose for the 6th time in their last 9 games. *8* OAKLAND Money Line +145 |
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04-22-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 runs -105 in Colorado vs LA Dodgers @ 8:40 ET Friday - In the last 38 meetings between these teams only 14 have resulted in an under. The Rockies will have Jonathan Gray on the mound tonight. The right-hander is making his first start this season. His biggest issues at the MLB level have been with consistency and command. This spring he had trouble again as walks were an issue. Last season he struggled badly in outings at hitter-friendly Coors Field as he went winless in five starts. In those five outings, Gray got hit at a .391 clip and compiled an 8.27 ERA. Now he faces a Dodgers that has won 6 of their past 8 games and is averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season. The Rockies have won 3 of their last 4 home games and averaged 9 runs per game in those 3 victories. They are happy to be back home after a week-long road trip. Colorado is hitting .303 in their home games this season. This is nothing new as last season the Rockies hit .302 in their home games. In the thin air of Colorado look for Kazmir the Dodgers Scott Kazmir to struggle to get the movement on his pitches that he needs to be successful. He is a soft thrower and he could end up getting walloped on a mild night with the wind expected to be blowing out at Coors Field. After a good first start this season (against a Padres team that couldn't hit anything earlier this season), Kazmir has struggled with 10 earned runs allowed in the 8 innings spanning his past two starts. The Rockies are 6-3 to the over in divisional games this season. The Dodgers went 3-1 to the over the past two seasons when they are on the road and the posted total was 11 or 11.5 runs. Big number on this total tonight but it's absolutely justifiable. *10* OVER in Colorado Friday |
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04-22-16 | A's v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8 runs +105 in Toronto vs Oakland @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been "under machines" so far this season. Even with yesterday's over, the Athletics have had just 4 overs in their 16 games this season. The Blue Jays saw their game stay under the total again yesterday and they have had just 4 overs in their 17 games this season. On the road this season Oakland is 5-1 to the under. After a win this season the A's are 7-1 to the under. Against right-handed starters, the Athletics are 10-2 to the under. This is Oakland's first game on artificial turf this season but the under went 9-2 the past two seasons in A's games on artificial turf. When the posted total on their games has been 8 or 8.5 this season, Toronto has gone 9-2 to the under. In their games against teams with a winning record this season, the Blue jays have also gone 9-2 to the under. They are hitting just .227 on the season and Oakland his hitting just .230 on the season. The A's bullpen has an 0.83 ERA on the road this season. The Jays bullpen has a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in home games this season. The A's Sonny Gray gets the start and he's been very sharp early this season and has allowed a total of just 5 earned runs in his three starts. The Rays hand the ball to Aaron Sanchez and he has allowed just 1 earned run in each of his three starts this season! Also, this will be his first time facing an Oakland and that certainly is a disadvantage for the A's hitters. Gray has a 2.25 ERA in his career outings against the Blue Jays. 10 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. I look for another one here. *8* UNDER in Toronto |
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04-21-16 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs in Baltimore vs Toronto @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have been "under" teams early this season but the Orioles are hitting .283 on the season while the Blue Jays have averaged nearly 10 hits per game in their last 4 games. With a struggling Chris Tillman on the mound I look for the Jays to do damage early and often at the plate in this one. The Orioles right-hander gave up 6 earned runs on 9 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings of work in his most recent start. Also, he's 4-10 with a 5.48 ERA in his career starts against Toronto. Tillman struggled badly against the Blue Jays last season with a few horrific outings against the Jays. Toronto may seem some struggles from their own starting pitcher in this one as well. Marco Estrada gets the starting nod for the Blue Jays and he's off of his first road start of the season. The Jays right-hander got rocked in that start for 4 earned runs in 6 innings. Certainly he put up some impressive numbers last season and is a starting pitcher that merits respect. However, he did have a "short" spring this season and this could continue to be an issue for him early this season as the start at Boston could be duplicated here in terms of Estrada facing another tough AL East lineup on the road. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons combined the Blue Jays have had just 17 unders in 43 games. As for the Orioles, even with their trending toward unders early this season they still have had just 23 unders in 57 April games the past three seasons combined. Finally, in the series finale of this three game set, look for the offenses to make plenty of noise. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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04-21-16 | A's v. Yankees OVER 8 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs -100 in New York Yankees vs Oakland @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitching early this season but A's southpaw Rich Hill may be just what the doctor ordered! The Oakland lefty has given up 17 hits in his 13 innings of work this season. Two of his three outings have been very short starts because he has struggled so badly. Also, Hill has made two career starts in the Bronx and he's gone 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA. The Yankees are certainly likely to have pitching issues of their own in this game. Luis Severino gets the start and, unlike last season, he's been very hittable so far this year. He's allowed 7 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 11 innings of work so far this season. Oakland has been an "under" team so far this season but with four straight wins the hitters are certainly stepping into the plate with confidence today against Severino. Couple that with the fact that Hill is likely to struggle once again in the Bronx and you have the makings of a slugfest here. This one doesn't "look pretty on paper" because the trends don't "add up" but this one should go over rather easily based on the pitching match-up and the situation as the Yankees battle hard at the plate to avoid a home sweep. *8* OVER in New York Yankees |
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04-20-16 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Baltimore vs Toronto @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Toronto has been an "under machine" so far this season and this has been particularly true on the road. However, R.A. Dickey has struggled badly so far this season and the Blue Jays knuckle-baller went 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA in his road starts last year. This season the 41 year old Dickey is off to a rough start and has a 6.75 ERA and has been hit at a .313 clip so far this season. Facing an Orioles team that is hitting .285 so far this season and has plenty of power is not going to help the knuckler. His counterpart tonight is Ubaldo Jimenez. Even though Jimenez hasn't looked "that bad" this season he has been quite hittable. He's given up 14 hits in his last 12 innings of work and he really labored in his most recent start (at Boston) with command of his pitches also being a real issue against the Red Sox. Jimenez is getting hit at a .298 clip so far this season and has walked 11 and allowed 16 hits in his last 17 and 2/3 innings of work against the Blue Jays. That equates to a 1.53 WHIP and allowing too many baserunners against a powerful Toronto lineup can quickly lead to some "crooked numbers" being put on the scoreboard frame by frame. The fact is that the Jays lineup is getting back into their groove with each win and they have shaken off a slow start to win 6 of their last 9. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Blue Jays have recorded just 17 unders in the last 43 such games. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in the Orioles last 8 games with a slugfest breaking out on Wednesday. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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04-20-16 | Mariners v. Indians -125 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line -115 vs Seattle @ 6:10 ET - Both pitchers in this match-up are off to good starts this season. However, Taijuan Walker will be making his first road start of the season. Last year he was hit at a batting average that was 35 points higher on the road compared to at home. The prior season the disparity was 38 points! Not only is it almost always more "comfortable" for a pitcher to be at home, Walker gets the benefit of pitching in pitcher-friendly Seattle. He's on the road though for this one tonight and I look for him to be out-dueled by the Indians Danny Salazar. The right-hander already has 16 strikeouts and has allowed just 5 hits in his 11 and 1/3 innings of work so far this season. Not only has Salazar looked great on the mound, both of those starts were on the road. Now the righty makes his first home start of the season and Salazar went 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA in his home starts last season. Opponents only hit .217 against him in home outings last season. With each victory, the confidence of the Indians is growing and they have now won four of their last six games. Conversely, the Mariners are slumping and have lost 7 of their past 10 games. Seattle is only hitting .231 against righties this season. The Indians are 3-1 in their games against right-handed starters this season and Cleveland is hitting .275 against righties. Look for Seattle to drop to 2-6 in night games this season. *10* CLEVELAND |
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04-19-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Texas vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - The Astros bullpen has a 6.65 ERA on the road. The Rangers bullpen has an 11.21 ERA at home. With that said, even though yesterday's game got rained out and the Astros have had a day off to rest up and the Rangers have had two days to rest their bullpen, it may not matter! These guys just flat out struggle to record outs and it will be the same story for the starters today as well. The Astros will send Scott Feldman to the mound and he's struggled in his only road start this season. He also got rocked in both starts versus the Rangers last season. Feldman gave up 18 hits in less than 9 innings of work against Texas last season. As for the Rangers starter tonight it will be Derek Holland getting the call. The southpaw has enjoyed some success early this season but it came against teams struggling to score runs. He now faces an Astros team that has a .445 slugging percentage in road games this season. Hollland faced Houston twice in September last season and got hammered in both starts. This one sets up perfectly for both teams to hit the ball well as the Astros got to him for 9 earned runs on 17 hits in less than 11 innings of work last September. The over is 5-1 in Astros road games this season and the over is also 5-1 in Rangers home games this season. The over is 4-0 in Texas home games with posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Also, the over is 7-2 in Rangers night games so far on the young season. *10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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04-19-16 | Mets v. Phillies -104 | 11-1 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -104 vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are struggling to score runs but the Mets haven't exactly been "setting the world on fire" early this season. The Mets finally got to the Phillies bullpen yesterday but they surprisingly struggled against starter Jared Eickhoff. They face a much tougher starting pitcher today as Vincent Velasquez gets the start for the Phils. The right-hander has brought some much needed swagger and fire to the Phils and may not require much bullpen today. In fact he's coming off of a complete game shutout where he fanned 16. Overall on the season Velasquez has allowed 0 earned runs in 15 innings while allowing just 6 hits, walking only 3, and striking out 25. These are simply phenomenal numbers and I look for another strong start from him today. He'll be opposed by Logan Verrett who struggled at Philly in a late season start last year. The Phillies are 4-2 this season in games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. The Mets are 1-4 this season in games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. In a game projected to be low-scoring, the Phils will give the fire-balling Velasquez enough run support to get the win here. *8* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-18-16 | Mets -1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play New York Mets Run Line -1.5 +100 @ Philadelphia @ 7:05 ET -Â Shorter write-ups today due to bad storms here in Texas. The Phillies took two of three from the Mets already this season in New York and that means revenge is on their minds with this next series taking place in Philly. The Phillies got lucky the first time that they did not have to face Noah Syndergaard in the series but there is no such luck this time. He has allowed just 1 earned runs in 13 innings spanning his first two starts and he's also struck out 21 in those outings. The Phillies are still having trouble scoring runs and it certainly won't get any easier tonight. As for the Mets, I expect them to enjoy success against Jerad Eickhoff. They already saw him in the first series and that certainly was a choppy start for the Phillies right-hander. Now New York gets a quick second look at him and don't be fooled by his most recent start. Even though Eickhoff had a great start it was against the punch-less Padres lineup. This one will go much different tonight and it should be a road rout! 5 of the Phillies 7 losses this season have been by 4 runs or more. The Mets, with a huge pitching edge should have no problem taking this one by 2 runs or more. The Mets sticks are finally getting going too with having scored 5 runs or more in three straight games. The Phillies have only scored more than 3 runs TWICE this ENTIRE season. Value on the run line here. *10* NY METS -1.5Â |
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04-17-16 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs +100 in LA Dodgers vs San Francisco @ 8:05 ET - This total has rise from a 7 to a 7.5 as of early Sunday morning and the move is absolutely correct (in my opinion) in this case. Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Dodgers and is welcomed into the SF/LA rivalry. I don't expect it to go well for him. Even though he's been successful in his first two starts this season, the Dodgers righty (signed to MLB contract after years of baseball in Japan) was fortunate in who he faced in his first two starts. Maeda faced the light-hitting Padres and a Diamondbacks team that is hitting .217 on the road this season. Facing the Giants will prove to be a much tougher test as San Francisco is averaging 5.7 runs per game on the season. Maeda will be opposed by Jeff Samardzija of the Giants tonight. I know the veteran righty is off of a surprisingly strong start against the Rockies but one should never put too much weight into just one outing. In his first start this season he truly had to "sneak by" the Brewers as they did get to him for 8 hits and 3 walks in only 5 and 1/3 innings of work. Samardzija has a 6.35 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in his two career starts against the Dodgers and I look for more struggles here. The Dodgers are 25-16 to the over as a home favorite of -125 to -150 the past three seasons. The Giants are 27-12 to the over as a road dog of +125 to +150 the past three seasons. *10* OVER 7.5 runs in LA Dodgers |
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04-17-16 | White Sox v. Rays -118 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Tampa Bay Rays -118 vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - Neither one of these teams have hit the ball very well this season but the Rays had a bit of a "break out game" Saturday in their 7-2 win. Look for Tampa Bay to build momentum from that victory as they got their sticks going and now, for the third straight game, are facing a southpaw once again. It helps hitters when they see guys throwing from the same side in consecutive games and with this being a third straight lefty the Rays are facing and with the big game at the plate that Tampa had yesterday (including two homers against a lefty, Danks) I look for the Rays to get to Jose Quintana early and often in this one. As for the ChiSox sticks, they have not faced a left-handed starter since their season opener which was nearly two weeks ago! This a big edge for Rays southpaw Matt Moore who has pitched well so far this season. Moore has registered more strikeouts than hits allowed so far this season and I look for another strong start from here against a White Sox club that has scored a total of just 9 runs in their last 4 games! The past three seasons combined the ChiSox are 48-72 in day games. Look for the Rays to improve to 3-1 against left-handed starters this season. *8* TAMPA BAY |
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04-16-16 | Tigers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs +105 in Houston vs Detroit @ 7:10 ET - As a general rule, I always at least take a peak at an over the day after a 1-0 pitchers' duel like these teams had yesterday. The fact is the Astros had a lot of scoring opportunities yesterday but simply couldn't cash them in as they hit into three double plays. The fact they induced a lot of walks was certainly a good sign for the Houston lineup but the real key today will be swinging the lumber against a struggling Justin Verlander. The Tigers right-hander threw 116 pitches and didn't even get out of the 5th inning in a bad start against the Pirates. Verlander is having some trouble with his breaking stuff and this is bad news because the former power pitcher has lost a little something off his fastballs of late. Look for the Astros to enjoy plenty of success but they have a pitching concern of their own. I know Chris McHugh bounced back in his 2nd start (after a horrible 1st start against the Yankees) but McHugh did give up 8 hits in 7 innings against the Royals and his stuff was far from electric. The Astros bullpen has a 5.40 ERA on the season while the Tigers pen has a 5.29 ERA in road games so far this year. The Tigers had averaged 6 runs per game on the season before getting shutout in yesterday's game. The over had gone 7-1 in Detroit's first 8 games. They are on a long-term run of 94-65 to the over in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. *10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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04-15-16 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8 in Minnesota vs LA Angels @ 8:10 ET - Mild night in Minnesota for mid-April but that doesn't mean these bats are going to come alive. Part of the reason that the Twins are winless on the season is simply because they can't score runs. Minnesota has stayed under the total in ALL NINE of their games this season. They are 0-9 on the season and their totals have ALL been unders as well. Look for the Twins (averaging 1.6 runs per game on the season) to struggle with the offerings of Garrett Richards tonight. His first two starts may not be overly impressive statistically but, keep in mind, those outings were against Texas and the red-hot Cubs. He has a 2.63 ERA in his career against the Twins and he should have no trouble shutting down a struggling Minnesota lineup tonight. The reason this should be a pitchers duel is that the Angels are averaging just 2.9 runs per game this season and hitting just .236 and averaging only 2.8 runs per game against left-handers. Look for the Angels to struggle against Tom Milone as the southpaw shakes off some struggles with the long ball in his first start this season which did come against the world champion Royals. Milone went 6-2 in his home starts for the Twins last year and he went 3-0 at home as a member of the A's the prior year. He'll frustrate an Angels team that only hit .232 against lefties last season. As for the bullpens, Angels have a 2.16 ERA on the road so far this season and the Twins have a 1.2 ERA in home games so far this season. *8* UNDER 8 in Minnesota |
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04-15-16 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 9 runs in Texas vs Baltimore @ 8:05 ET - With yesterday's over the Orioles have now gone over the total in 3 of their last 4 games while the Rangers have gone over the total in 3 straight home games. Both of these teams are swinging the bats well with the Orioles hitting .287 on the season and also averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road. The Rangers got off to a slower start at the plate this season but they've now averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games so, as the weather has been warming, so too have the Texas bats been warming. The Orioles bullpen has been solid this season but the Rangers bullpen has struggled including an ugly 10.80 ERA in their home games this season. Even though the Orioles pen has been solid their starting pitcher is likely to be in trouble early and often tonight. Vance Worley had a "shaky" outing in his first start this season and that was against light-hitting Tampa Bay. He faces a much more potent line-up tonight and the match-up is in a hitter-friendly park. The Rangers will have Martin Perez getting the start and the southpaw gave up 7 hits plus walked 5 while striking out 0 in his 6 inning start against the Angels last week. He was lucky with all the baserunners that he did not allow more damage than the 3 earned runs. He also walked 4 in his first start this season so he's been on the edge of some big innings early this season but he's survived. I believe a confident Baltimore lineup will make him pay and that's why this game should turn into a back-and-forth slugfest. *10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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04-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -121 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -110 vs Toronto @ 7:10 ET - Great line value with the Red Sox at home at such a small price. I realize that Rick Porcello's numbers in spring training were not good but he truly was experimenting with a few different things. Sure enough, now that the real games are here he was quite solid in his outing against the Blue Jays last week. Not a great start, but respectable. I expect him to be even better at home. Last season after the all star break Porcello had a 3.53 ERA and he'll carry momentum from that right into this season. In his last 3 home starts he allowed just 6 earned runs in over 22 innings of work. The Blue Jays offense is off to a slower start this season and only hitting .224 overall and .213 in road games. Toronto's R.A. Dickey is facing a Red Sox lineup that has produced a .280 batting average so far this season including .287 at home. Dickey is off to a rough start this season as he was not overly effective against a weak Rays lineup in his first start and then Boston roughed him up at home last week. Now Dickey is on the road again where he went 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA last season. The Red Sox are hitting better than the Jays, they have home field edge, and they have the better starting pitcher on the mound. Also, the Red Sox bullpen has an overall 3.38 ERA on the young season while the Blue Jays pen has a 5.62 ERA in road games so far this year. *10* BOSTON -110 |
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04-15-16 | Rockies v. Cubs OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 runs in Chicago Cubs vs Colorado @ 2:20 ET - The wind is blowing in today at Wrigley Field but I knew that would help to give us some line value here and am happy to play over the low posted total in this game. The Cubs and Rockies are EACH a solid 6-3 to the over so far this season. With the Rockies it's not just about Coors Field either. Their three road games this season have averaged 13 runs per game. Their hitting the ball well, their bullpen is getting hammered, and their starting pitcher today is likely to get rocked. The Rockies will have Chad Bettis on the mound and he's off of a great start versus San Diego but the punchless Padres have been a disaster at the plate in 8 of their 10 games this season! In those 8 games San Diego has scored a TOTAL of just 8 runs. That's an average of ONE RUN per game in 80% of the schedule for the Padres so far this season. The point is that I look for Bettis to have a lot more trouble facing a Cubs team that has been insanely hot all season. Chicago is 8-1 this season and averaging 7 runs per game! The Cubs only concern today could be their own starting pitcher and that's why my play is the over. The Cubs will have Kyle Hendricks on the mound and he struggled in both of his starts against the Rockies last season. That included a start at Wrigley so it is not like his stats were "flawed" by both starts being at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Rockies are swinging the bats well and so are the Cubs and this should be a solid over in day game action Friday. *8* OVER 7.5 in Cubs |
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04-14-16 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto vs NY Yankees @ 7:05 ET - You may recall that last season Nathan Eovaldi had to be shutdown early in September due to elbow inflammation. The Yankees right-hander is saying it's not an issue this spring but he surely did not look good in his first start of the season. Eovaldi faced Houston and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work. He allowed 2 homers in the start and now faces another powerful lineup in the form of the Blue Jays on Thursday evening. Look for Toronto's lineup to build off of yesterday's solid performance as they scored 7 runs in the win. The Jays may have some trouble keeping the Yankees off the board in this one though. After a good first start against light-hitting Tampa Bay, the Jays Marcus Stroman struggled against a more powerful line-up - Red Sox - last week. Now he takes on a Yankees lineup that has struggled when facing left-handed starters this season but in the games where they've faced a right-handed starter the Yankees are hitting .303 so far this season and they have averaged 7 runs per game in those outings. Stroman has had success in his career against the Yankees but the Yanks should bounce back after scoring only 2 runs yesterday. I definitely like what the Yankees are doing against right-handed pitching this season and Stroman gave up 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings versus Boston last week. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Yankees games this season. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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04-14-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 11.5 runs in Colorado vs San Francisco @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's 10-6 Rockies win marked the 5th time in 8 Colorado games this season that the total has reached at least 15 runs! That said, even though 11.5 seems like a big number to go "over" on, the fact is that that the way Rockies games have been going early this season the number should truly be even bigger. Jorge De La Rosa is expected to get the start for the Rockies. This is the 4th straight year that the southpaw has gotten off to a slow start. Each of his first two starts this season have been ugly and now he faces the Giants on a mild afternoon at hitter-friendly Coors Field with the wind blowing out. It is certainly not a good situation for him to be able to turn things around. San Francisco has scored 22 runs in their last 3 games. The issue for the Giants will be their own pitching today. I am well aware of the fact that Cain had a good first start this season but pitching at Coors Field is an entirely different "animal" altogether. The last time he started here it was a shortened three-inning outing but in his last "regular" outing at Colorado, Cain gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings of work. He was victimized by two homers in that game and the ball will again be carrying very well at Coors Field in this afternoon outing Thursday. The Giants are 26-16 to the over when they are on the road in a price range of -100 to -125. The Rockies are 33-21 to the over in April games the past three seasons combined. *8* OVER in Colorado |
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04-13-16 | Padres v. Phillies -115 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -105 vs San Diego @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies certainly aren't World Series contenders but they are playing inspired baseball early this season and they can take advantage of facing a light-hitting foe once again tonight. The Padres put up some big numbers when they visited Coors Field last week but, of course, most all visitors to Colorado pad their offensive stats there. The key to facing the Padres again here is to look at what their team has done in terms of run production in their games not played at Denver. San Diego has scored a TOTAL of 7 runs in 6 games. That is incredible ineptitude on offense. It's not like the Padres are wasting a lot of scoring chances either. They are just not getting many chances because they're not hitting the ball. In those 6 games not played at Coors Field, the Padres have averaged 5 hits per game! Keep in mind some teams are averaging 5 RUNS per game right now so that shows you just how poorly the Padres lineup has been performing. The one weakness that Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff has is that he does struggle a bit against lefties. However, that concern in this start is mitigated by the fact that the Padres best left-handed bat (Yangervis Solarte) is currently on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Eickhoff was a hard luck loser in his first start as the bullpen failed him. That game came on the road but the Phils bullpen has been fantastic in this series now that they are back home - a 0.00 ERA! The Phillies hit Colin Rea hard the last time they saw him and he also has his confidence rattled right now after getting hammered at Coors Field in his first start of the season. The Padres have never faced Eickhoff so there are advantages all over the place in this match-up and that includes home field edge for the Phils who are a bargain at the small price being offered here. The Padres are 67-100 in road games the past 2+ seasons. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-13-16 | Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *7* OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs LA Angels @ 3:35 ET - Oakland Coliseum is certainly not known as a hitters park. However, a day game in Oakland with the wind blowing out can certainly be a favorable situation for the hitters. This has precipitated a rise on this total as it went from an 8 to an 8.5 right away when the lines first came out. Part of that has to do with the weather and also a lot of it has to do with two struggling starting pitchers taking the mound today. Matt Shoemaker was awful in his first start this season and this followed a rough spring. Also, although he had a 6-4 road record last season, Shoemaker compiled a 5.04 ERA away from home. The prior year the Angels righty went 7-1 on the road but yet compiled a 4.45 ERA away from home. In 6 career starts against Oakland there has not been a single under and Shoemaker has an unimpressive 4.73 ERA in his career outings against the Athletics. As for the A's pitching, their bullpen finally caved in last night and there were three homers hit in yesterday's game. The Angels had one of the round-trippers while also pounding out three other extra-base hits. I look for the solid hitting from last night to carry right over into today. Eric Surkamp is getting the start for Oakland and he is making just the 9th start of his MLB career. He threw 81 innings to get just 13 outs in his first start this season as he was pulled after 4 and 1/3 innings. That's not a good sign of what to expect from him here as the Angels are hitting .275 so far in this series. The over is now 32-22 in Angels April games the past three years and 19-10 in A's games where they are at home with a money line ranging from -100 to -125. *7* OVER in Oakland |
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04-13-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets vs Miami @ 1:10 ET - Adam Conley only got to throw one inning against the Nationals in his first start because a lengthy rain delay followed. However, that one inning did not go well at all and this is still a guy who only has made a total of 12 starts in his MLB career. The Marlins lefty was 3-0 on the road last season but in his 8 games (6 starts) away from home he had a 4.17 ERA. His stuff is far from phenomenal and he was hit at a .270 clip in his starts last season. He'll be opposed by Logan Verrett who is only getting the start because of the injury to Jacob deGrom. Like Conley, Verrett doesn't have a lot of starting experience at the MLB level. The Mets right-hander has made only 4 starts in his MLB career. The Marlins have been hitting the ball well and are averaging 5 runs per game this season. The Mets sticks have struggled but certainly come to life at home against a southpaw who is still trying to shake off what was an "eventful" first start this season. With this total moving downward in the markets this also is adding even more value to this play. Even with yesterday's under, the over is still a solid 31-20 in Marlins April games since 2014 and strong 82-61 in Mets divisional games since 2014. *8* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets |
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04-12-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado vs San Francisco @ 8:40 ET - As usual the ball will carry well in the thin air at Coors Field Tuesday night. Helping the cause is the fact that the wind may also be switching around during this game and the light breeze may add even a little more help in terms of carry on the ball. Of course the favorable ballpark setting is the reason this total is so high but it certainly is justified. This is especially true based on this pitching match-up. The Giants will have Jeff Samardzija on the mound. He only gave up 3 runs in his start at Milwaukee last week but he was very fortunate as the Brewers were constantly throughout his start. The key factor here is that baserunners at Coors Field are much tougher to strand than at any other ballpark in the league. The Rockies will have Tyler Chatwood on the hill. He is recovering from Tommy John surgery and really hasn't seen significant time on the mound in the majors since 2013. That year he was hit at a .294 clip in his outings at Coors Field. Overall, in his career, he's been hit at a .287 clip at the major league level. The Giants have gotten to him for 9 earned runs in 12 innings the last two times they've faced him. San Francisco hit 3 homers against him the last time they faced Chatwood at Coors Field. The Rockies bullpen has an unsightly 11.37 ERA so this could be a huge night for the Giants sticks in Denver. The Rockies are averaging 7 runs per game in their 4 games against right-handed starters this season. Look for this one to fly over the total as both teams should get at least 7 runs in what should be an absolute slug-fest. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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04-12-16 | Indians -132 v. Rays | 1-5 | Loss | -132 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *7* Cleveland Indians -127 @ Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are only 2-4 on the young season and are hitting just .213 against right-handed starters and averaging a paltry 2.3 runs per game in their night games. The Indians are 2-2 on the year and the Tribe is averaging 5 runs per game on the road and they had a big 7-run performance in their only night game so far this year. Even without Michael Brantley (shoulder - still recovering), Cleveland has the better lineup in comparison with the Rays. As for the pitchers tonight, southpaw Matt Moore had a decent first start but he pitched in and out of trouble throughout. The Indians are likely to make him pay if he gets into trouble in this one as they got to him for 4 runs in less than 5 innings of work the last time they saw him. Corey Kluber gets the start for the Tribe and he had a tough first start but he faced the powerful Red Sox lineup. Now he takes a big step down in level of opposition as he squares off with the Tampa Bay lineup. Kluber has struck out 31 Rays in 23 innings in his last 3 starts against them. The Indians right-hander has a 2.91 ERA in his career outings on turf. Last season in night games opponents only hit .223 against him and he piles up the strikeouts. Look for the Indians to improve to 19-11 when they are a road favorite of -125 to -150 and to also improve to a fantastic 7-1 their last 8 games in a dome. Look for the Rays to drop to 38-51 in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. *7* CLEVELANDÂ |
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04-12-16 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *6* Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 -150 @ LA Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - I normally don't lay much juice in any sport in any situation but this one is too good to pass up on. Laying 150 to get the +1.5 in this spot is very reasonable. The Diamondbacks will have Patrick Corbin on the mound and he looks recovered from Tommy John surgery. The fact he allowed 3 homers in his first start is actually helping to give some value here because it's keeping him "under the radar" awhile longer. I expect him to have a fantastic run early this season as he generally gets a lot of ground ball outs and should have a lot of success in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium this afternoon as he atones for some "mistake pitches" in the loss to the Rockies at hitter-friendly Chase Field last week. The Dodgers will have Kenta Maeda on the mound for his 2nd MLB start since coming over from Japan. The right-hander was great in his first start but that came in the midst of a 3-game set with the Padres who were punchless throughout that season-opening series. Look for Maeta to find the Dbacks solid lineup to be much more challenging. Arizona is hitting .310 in divisional games so far this season while the Dodgers lineup struggled in their only look at a southpaw starter (San Fran's Bumgarner) so far this season. If Los Angeles does pull this out I expect it to be a tight victory by a single run. The Dodgers come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games and the lone win was by a single run. The Dbacks are a team on the way up (improved dramatically last season) and they are much better than their early season record would indicate. The result is nice value here on the run line. *6* ARIZONA +1.5 runs |
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04-12-16 | Pirates v. Tigers OVER 8 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Detroit vs Pittsburgh @ 1:10 ET - It will be chilly in Detroit this afternoon but not brutal. The wind will be blowing out so that also helps. The Pirates won 7-4 here yesterday and that was the 5th time in the last 6 meetings (in Detroit) between these clubs that an over has resulted. The Pirates have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of their 7 games so far this season. The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in all 5 of their games this season. This is significant because getting each of these teams to 4 runs guarantees us of a win as the game can't end 4-4. We'll get over the 8 here. Juan Nicasio had a great first start for Pittsburgh but that was evening game and it was at home. Now he's on the road in a day game and Nicasio had a 6.39 ERA with a .393 BAA in day games last season! Having not been a full time starter since the first half of the 2014 seasons, there could be an adjustment phase for the Pirates right-hander early this season. He'll be opposed by the Tigers Anibal Sanchez in this one. The Detroit righty has lost each of his last three starts against the Pirates and he gave up 13 earned runs in 20 innings with 5 home runs allowed in these 3 starts. Pittsburgh got their bats going again yesterday afternoon and that spells trouble for Sanchez today. Detroit is 70-49 to the over in day games and the Tigers are 92-65 to the over when the total is posted at 8 or 8.5 runs. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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04-11-16 | Royals +132 v. Astros | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Kansas City Royals +132 @ Houston @ 8:10 ET - The Astros got all the way up to about 150 faves in this one before now being bet back down as the Royals are finally attracting some attention...as they should! Kansas City is 4-1 so far this season, they have the better bullpen, and they are the defending champs. Of course Houston would love nothing more than to take down the champs in the Astros home opener. The problem is that the Astros bullpen has struggled and there is a mismatch in terms of the starting pitchers for this one. The Royals Chris Young was solid against the Mets in his first start this season. Also, he went 5-2 with a 2.52 ERA in his road outings last season! Young also was 7-3 with a minuscule 2.15 ERA in night games last season. Look for him to excel at Minute Maid Park under the lights on Monday. Collin McHugh gets the start for the Astros in this one. He had a dreadful first start this season as he only recorded ONE OUT while getting absolutely pummeled in the Bronx by the Yankees on Wednesday. While I am sure this outing will go better for him than that did, McHugh is still likely to get roughed up here. His mechanics are "off" right now and he's facing a Royals team that saw him twice in October last year and had some success against him. This an edge for the KC hitters where as Houston has not seen Chris Young on the mound since the 2014 season. Great line underdog line value here. *8* KANSAS CITY |
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04-11-16 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 1-10 | Win | 111 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 +110 in St Louis vs Milwaukee @ 4:15 ET - Taylor Jungmann of the Brewers had a successful first start this season but that was at home. On the road last season the young right--hander went 4-6 with a 5.02 ERA. He was plagued by the home run ball on the road and, even though the wind is expected to be blowing from left to right in this game, the ball is known for carrying well at Busch Stadium in day games. Also, the air is drying out as a cold front as moved through and with less density than usual in the air, this also helps the carry of the ball. Jungmann got roughed up in September at St Louis and allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers. I look for a similar tough outing for him this afternoon as the Cardinals sticks come into this game red hot. The Cards have won three straight games and scored 31 runs in the process! St Louis will have Michael Wacha on the mound. He had a rough first start at Pittsburgh and while many are expecting him to bounce back in this start because he had so much success at Busch Stadium last year, I beg to differ. Something seems wrong with Wacha. He had a rough ending last season with a 7.88 ERA in September, then he got hit at a .342 clip in spring training this year, and then he got pummeled by the Pirates in his first start. Look for Wacha's struggles to continue this afternoon. *8* OVER in St Louis |
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04-11-16 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Boston vs Baltimore @ 2:05 ET - The Red Sox and Orioles are both off to strong starts at the plate this season. The fact that Boston got shutout yesterday makes this play even stronger as the Red Sox had averaged 7.5 runs of offense per game and gone over the total in each of their first four games this season. I am well aware of the fact that both the Orioles Yovani Gallardo and Boston's David Price had solid outings in their first start of the season. However, they also faced two of the weaker lineups in the league in the form of Minnesota and Cleveland, respectively. That said, the Red Sox were red hot at the plate before yesterday's shutout and they will respond at the plate in their home opener. As for the Orioles, they are hitting nearly .300 on the young season and they are averaging nearly 10 hits per game which has helped lead to a 5-0 start this season. I do have a lot of respect for Boston's Price but the Red Sox southpaw he's facing a very confident Orioles lineup and they do have some hitters that have enjoyed success against him. The wind is blowing out at a good clip at Fenway Park today and the Orioles Gallardo got hammered (including 2 home run balls) in his most recent start at Fenway. *8* OVER in Boston |
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04-10-16 | A's v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 -105 in Seattle vs Oakland @ 4:10 ET - Felix Hernandez is a hurler who I certainly have plenty of respect for but don't be surprised if the A's do some damage against the Mariners ace Sunday afternoon. Hernandez allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts against the Athletics. Also, in his start prior to those two, the Seattle right-hander allowed 10 hits in 7 innings against Oakland last July. The A's hitters are certainly familiar with him and Oakland already has 20 hits so far in the first two games of this series. Of course the big key to this big play Sunday is that the Mariners sticks should absolutely come back to life here. Seattle should be able to "tee off" against Athletics hurler Chris Bassitt. The righty got roughed up in his first start this season against the White Sox. He also has walked 10 in his last 10 innings of work at Safeco Field. Though he found the plate more in his first start this season (versus the ChiSox) that also resulted in him getting hit hard. Bassitt had some struggles in spring training and they appear to have carried right into the regular season. Also, Bassitt was 0-3 with a 5.12 ERA in his 9 road games (6 starts) last season. In the A's last 96 games with a posted total of 7 or less, only 36 have stayed under the total. The Mariners have struggled at the plate in the first two games of this series but they now face a right-handed starter for the first time since they defeated Colby Lewis and the Rangers 9-5 earlier this week. The M's can pound Bassitt. *10* OVER in Seattle |
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04-10-16 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 -120 in LA Angels vs Texas @ 3:35 ET - After a pitchers' duel between Cole Hamels and Garrett Richards yesterday, this game looks like the ideal set up for a slug-fest. The Angels will send Jered Weaver to the mound. The veteran right-hander has lost a lot of velocity on his fastball and has been looking very hittable based on what he showed this spring. That spells trouble against a dangerous Rangers lineup and Weaver went an ugly 0-4 with a 6.61 ERA in his 6 day game starts last season. Martin Perez had a successful season opener against the Mariners this season but he's now on the road where he went 0-5 with a 4.81 ERA in 8 starts last season. Also, Perez will be facing an Angels lineup that will be loaded up with hitters from the right side. This is significant because Perez held lefties to a .210 clip last season but got hammered by righties at a .304 clip last year. Also, Perez will be backed by a bullpen that has been one of the majors' worst (0-3, 7.64 ERA, .342 BAA) early this season. All signs are pointing to a solid over in this one. *8* OVER 8 in LA Angels |
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04-10-16 | Red Sox +124 v. Blue Jays | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Boston Red Sox Money Line +125 @ Toronto @ 1:05 ET - Look for the Blue Jays sticks to struggle against a knuckle-ball pitcher this afternoon in Toronto. Steven Wright gets the start for Boston and the Jays hitters lack experience against Wright. The Red Sox right-hander gave up quite a few hits in spring training but managed to scatter them and he ended with a 2.77 ERA and earned his way into the early season rotation for the BoSox. Marco Estrada was great for the Blue Jays last season but he has been bothered by soreness in his lower back this spring. This limited Estrada's work in spring training and I don't expect him to be 100% for this start as a result. This is bad news for the Blue Jays because the Red Sox are averaging 7 runs per game so far this season plus the Jays bullpen has struggled early this season. Look for Estrada to get rocked here, then the Blue Jays pen to continue to have some issues, while Boston's lineup continues to pound the ball. Factor all this with how strong the Red Sox bullpen has been early this season and we just need a respectable start from Wright and this one should be a nice road dog win for us. Look for the Blue Jays to drop their 5th in a row while the Red Sox improve to 4-1 on the young season. Two teams going in opposite directions early this season and the BoSox gave Estrada a lot of trouble in his two starts against them last season. *8* BOSTON |
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04-09-16 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Seattle vs Oakland @ 9:10 ET - The A's Rich Hill struggled mightily in his first start this season. He had significant issues with command of his pitches and that included hitting two batters. Hill had a horrible spring training as he went 0-2 in his 4 starts while walking 15 batters in just 12 innings of work. That spells trouble for how things will go tonight as he proved in the season opener that he's just not "ready" for his return to the starting rotation. Remember this is a guy that has mostly worked out of the bullpen for the past 6 seasons! The Mariners will trot out Nate Karns to the mound for tonight's start. He tends to see a lot of his pitches hit to the outfield and the cavernous setting of Safeco Field surely is a deterrent to home run balls but it also allows for some big hits in the gaps in the outfield. That could be an issue for Karns tonight. As a member of the Rays last season he faced the A's once and took the loss in a game where Oakland certainly didn't have too much trouble connecting against him. Yesterday's game stayed under but the over is still 84-62 long-term in Oakland's divisional games. Also, the over is 111-84 in A's night games the past three seasons. The Mariners had scored 19 runs combined in their two games prior to the tight loss to the Athletics yesterday. Look for them to respond in a huge way at the plate tonight as Hill's struggles continue. *10* OVER in Seattle |
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04-09-16 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -115 | 8-4 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Toronto Blue Jays Money Line -115 vs Boston @ 1:05 ET - R.A. Dickey gets the start for the Blue Jays and I look for the veteran knuckler to help Toronto respond after they blew a huge lead in yesterday's game. Dickey's first start this season was on the road and it was only a mediocre outing for him but he's now back home where he absolutely dominated last season. Dickey went 9-3 with a 3.11 ERA in home starts last season and held opposing hitters to a .197 batting average. He's capable of dominating again on Saturday while he should get plenty of run support from his team. The Blue Jays hitters will be able to "tee off" against the Red Sox Rick Porcello. The right-hander went 4-8 with a 5.56 ERA in road games last season. Also, in day games, Porcello was an ugly 2-4 with a 7.18 ERA. When off of a win, Boston is 65-87 (-26.2 units) the past three seasons combined. The Blue Jays are 47-28 in home games with posted totals of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons combined. Pitching mismatch and situational edges here. Very manageable line on the home team. *8* TORONTO |
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04-08-16 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 +110 in Arizona vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:40 ET - These teams combined for 20 runs yesterday and I look for another big night at the plate from both clubs tonight. The Cubs are scoring an average of 9.7 runs per game so far this season while the Diamondbacks are scoring a respectable average of 6.3 runs per game on the young season. The pitching match-up tonight is conducive to continued success at the plate for both clubs. The Diamondbacks will have Robbie Ray on the mound. I know the southpaw had a solid spring training but there can be a big difference between the games that don't count and the ones that do and he now faces one of the hottest and most dangerous lineups in baseball in a "real game" tonight. Ray went 1-6 with an ugly 4.88 ERA in his home starts for Arizona last season. He got hit at a .285 clip in those home outings and now faces a Cubs lineup that has produced more runs per game than any other team so far this season. Chicago came into this season with a lot of hype and, so far, they are living up to it. As for the Dbacks, their lineup has been very productive and they should enjoy plenty of success against Jason Hammel of the Cubs. The Diamondbacks hit .270 at home last season and only the Rockies had a higher team batting average at home than Arizona. Chicago's Hammel had a great first half last season but then had a 5.10 ERA after the All Star break. With a 4.63 ERA in spring training this year and some continued struggles to keep the ball down in the zone, I expected some carry over from last season's rough finish for Hammel right into the new season. In games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Cubs have gone 17-9 to the over. The Dbacks April games are on a 30-20 run to the over. *10* OVER in Arizona |
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04-08-16 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10 | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 10 -115 in Colorado vs San Diego @ 4:10 ET - What is the best thing for a struggling offense? A visit to Coors Field! Yes the Padres have three games in the books already this season and they still have not scored a run! While that may send fear into many playing "over a big number" in their very next game, it should prove to be precisely the right thing to do. The Padres will go from facing three straight tough Dodgers hurlers in pitcher friendly Petco Park to now facing Jordan Lyles in Colorado and his stuff is not overpowering. He has an ERA of 7.00 in his two home starts against the Padres as a member of the Rockies. Overall he had a 5.14 ERA in limited action last season and Lyles compiled a 4.81 ERA in his home starts for Colorado in the 2014 season. Denver can certainly see their fair share of cold weather (and even snow) in April but temperatures will be mild for the home opener Friday. Even though the wind will be blowing in it is expected to be a very light wind. The Padres Colin Rea will be making his first ever career start at Coors Field. Many a pitcher have had disastrous first outings in their initial appearance in the thin air of the mile high city. Rea got roughed up at Philly in his only road start last season and the 25 year old righty faces an even tougher test in his first road start this season. The Rockies have already scored 20 runs in their first three games this season but they've allowed 19. The Padres first three games have seen them allow 25 runs. The key to today's over in this match-up is that San Diego gets their bats on track in a very hitter-friendly venue. This will do wonders for the Padres lineup. The over went 8-2 in Rockies games the past two seasons where they were a home favorite in a price range of 150 to 175 and I look for a wild one in their home opener. *8* OVER in Colorado |
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04-07-16 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore vs Minnesota @ 7:05 ET - First two games in this series stayed under the total but the Orioles have left 22 men on base in those two contests. With milder weather today, the wind blowing out, and a pair of "questionable" starting pitchers on the mound the situation is perfect for a big "OVER" to put the wraps on this series. After a surprisingly successful season in his first year with Minnesota in 2014, Phil Hughes reverted to usual form last season. In 2015, Hughes was very hittable (.293 BAA) just like he was in 2013 with the Yankees when he also got hit at a .293 clip. Hughes took advantage of home starts in pitcher-friendly Minnesota but struggled on the road with a 2-6 record and 5.10 ERA last season away from home. Camden Yards is hitter-friendly and this is especially true when the wind is blowing out as it will be this evening. The only hope for Hughes is that his offense gives him a lot of run support tonight and that is precisely what I expect to happen. The Twins will be teeing off against the inconsistent Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. The Orioles right-hander had a 5.63 ERA after the All Star break last year. Signs of him returning to his first half form were certainly few and far between this spring as Jimenez compiled a 12.27 ERA in his four spring training starts. The Orioles have a solid bullpen but a lot of damage is going to be done before "damage control" can be called upon in this game. *10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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04-07-16 | White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Chicago White Sox @ 3:35 ET - Mat Latos is on his 5th team in the last 2 years. Think about that for a minute. Don't you think there might be a reason for that? Yes indeed this guy is a shell of his former self and he compiled a 4.95 ERA last season and followed that up by having a rough spring training (10.38 ERA) this year. He'll be matched up with Kendall Graveman of the A's in this one and he's considered fully recovered from his oblique injury from late last season. However, he still had an ERA up near 5.00 in spring training. Also, last season he struggled in day games as he went 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA in his 10 day game starts. Once Graveman is knocked out of this game, the A's bullpen takes over and Oakland's relievers compiled an ugly 4.63 ERA last season which was "good for" worst in the American League! After yesterday's 2-1 pitchers' duel between a pair of solid arms, this one should more like "batting practice" on Thursday afternoon. Though yesterday's game easily stayed under the total, the past two seasons Oakland has gone 18-8 to the over when they are at home and their money line price is in a range of -100 to -125. *8* OVER in Oakland |
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04-07-16 | Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati vs Philadelphia @ 12:35 ET - Will still be chilly today at Great American Ballpark in Cincy. However, the wind is going to be blowing out at a good clip and this is still well known as being a hitters park. Even with two of the weaker lineups in MLB squaring off, the over is a strong situational play here as both starting pitchers are likely to struggle and the Phillies have already had plenty of "relief" problems with the bullpen blowing games early this season too. Charlie Morton gets the start for the Phillies and he struggled last season and this was particularly noticeable in day games (6.67 ERA) and in road games (5.70 ERA). The Reds hand the ball to rookie Robert Stepehenson who will make his MLB debut. He struggled this spring (9.58 ERA) and had issues with command of his pitches. Those control issues are likely to be even worse with the added pressure of his first MLB regular season start. The over is 21-12 in Phillies Thursday games the past two seasons. The over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these clubs. *8* OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati |
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04-06-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 runs -105 in Texas vs Seattle @ 2:05 ET - After a good old-fashioned pitchers' duel in game one of this series, the Mariners got their sticks going in yesterday's game two. Now, in the finale of the 3-game set, the Rangers will surely get their bats on track too. Texas is known for crushing the ball in their home park. Today the setting is perfect for the Rangers to get their offense going. Day game. Wind blowing out. Facing a lefty (no team scored more runs against southpaws than the Rangers last season). Left-hander Wade Miley gets the start for the Mariners Wednesday. Miley is winless with a 4.63 ERA in his two career starts at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The southpaw faced the Rangers twice last season as a member of the Red Sox and he went 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA. Texas should have no trouble tracking his pitches on a beautiful day for the hitters today in Arlington. As for the Mariners sticks they should build on yesterday's huge performance. Seattle will be able to "tee off" against Colby Lewis of the Rangers. Last season, the right-hander went 8-3 at home but don't be fooled by the solid record. In his 17 starts in Arlington, Lewis compiled a 5.07 ERA. Also, Lewis went 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA in his 8 day game starts last season. When he faced the Mariners last April he gave up 10 hits in less than 6 innings of work and that was at Seattle. The results in Arlington in April are likely to be even worse! *8* OVER in Texas |
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04-06-16 | Giants v. Brewers +123 | 3-4 | Win | 123 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Milwaukee Brewers Money Line +123 vs San Francisco @ 1:40 PM ET - The Giants have won the first two games of this series and I don't see the Brewers getting swept in their home opening series. Of course they need a win today to avoid that. San Francisco's best hitter, Buster Posey, may be sitting today as the catcher gets some rest for his weary knees. Giants manager Bruce Bochy was quoted as saying there is a "good chance" Posey will be out of the lineup today. This not only effects the Giants lineup, it could also effect the success (or lack thereof) that starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija has on the mound. The veteran right-hander is coming off of a rough season with the White Sox where he compiled a 4.96 ERA on the year. Facing the Brewers at Miller Park would not exactly be his top choice for his debut with the Giants. Samardzija is 0-3 with a 6.30 ERA in 13 career appearances at Milwaukee's Miller Park. His counterpart today is Taylor Jungmann. Though he faced in the latter stages last season I look for him to get off to another strong start this season. He was simply fatigued late last season and let's not forget that, after his call-up from the minors last June, Jungmann went 9-5 with a 2.42 ERA in his first 16 starts in the majors. The Brewers avoid the sweep. *8* MILWAUKEE |
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04-05-16 | Mets v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs +100 in Kansas City vs New York Mets @ 4:15 ET - Very mild weather in Kansas City is forecast this afternoon and plus gusty winds will be blowing out to left field for this match-up. This, of course, will aid the hitters a bit and I also feel this pitching match-up is highly conducive to the over. First, a few trends certainly worth mentioning. The past 2+ seasons the over is 21-12 in Mets road games where they are priced from -100 to -125. The over is also 28-17 in Mets inter-league games the past 2+ seasons. Though these teams stayed under the total (just barely I might add) in Sunday's season opener, their World Series match-up last fall saw all 5 games over the total. Chris Young gets the start for the Royals this afternoon and he allowed 12 homers in 48 innings of work in day games last season. With him not being a hard thrower and with the weather helping the hitters today, he could be in for a tough afternoon with some big extra base hits. Young's ERA last season was more than a full run higher at home compared to on the road and lefties hit 83 points higher than righties against Young last season and the Mets lineup will be loaded up from that side of the plate today. The Mets will have hard-throwing Noah Syndergaard on the mound this afternoon. Though he was fantastic at home last season he went an ugly 2-5 with an unimpressive 4.23 ERA in his road starts last year. He was hit at a clip that was 62 points higher on the road compared to at home. The Royals again have a powerful lineup and they are especially dangerous at Kauffman Stadium. *10* OVER 8 runs in Kansas City |
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04-05-16 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 7 runs -120 in NY Yankees vs Houston @ 1:05 ET - The rain that postponed yesterday's game has cleared the area but even colder temperatures have moved in behind the storm system. That said it's going to be a brutally cold day for baseball in the Bronx. Temperatures are expected to be in the 30's with wind chill values well below that as a brutal north wind will also be blowing in today. That sets this up well for a pitchers duel between Keuchel and Tanaka. The Yankees bullpen looks improved over last season (even with lefty Miller dealing with a fracture of his non-throwing hand) and the Astros also are solid in the pen with Giles now the set up man for Gregerson. The Astros played 38 games with a posted total of 7 runs the past two seasons and only 13 of those went over the total. The Yankees played 108 day games the past two seasons and only 44 went over the total. Keuchel held opponents to a .195 batting average in day games last season. Tanaka held opponents to a .203 batting average in day games last year. This shapes up to be a pitchers duel based on the weather, starting pitchers, and bullpens. *8* UNDER 7 runs in NY Yankees |
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04-04-16 | Blue Jays v. Rays -107 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays -107 vs Toronto @ 7:10 ET - I had the Jays yesterday and Toronto got the win and certainly I feel they are the better team overall. However, today I will fade the Blue Jays as I feel the Rays have a huge pitching edge in this match-up. Dickey has a history of slow starts including last season when he went 0-3 with a 5.23 ERA in April and the knuckle-baller also had a 6.27 ERA in May. He also has not had a winning record on the road since 2012 and last season he was an ugly 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA away from home. In his road games last season Dickey got hit at a nearly .300 clip. The Rays will have Smyly on the mound today and the southpaw had a fantastic spring. He also got off to a great start last season before being derailed by injury. The fact that he finished last season, after returning from injury by going 4-0 with a 2.50 ERA in September plus the fact that he was stellar in spring training this season has me backing Smyly in his first start of the season. Toronto struck out 16 times in yesterday's game and that could be a bad sign of what is to come for the Blue Jays at the plate today because Smyly is a strikeout pitcher. The southpaw struck out 35 in under 27 innings of work at home last season. In spring training Smyly struck out 21 (while allowing just 10 hits) in 20 innings of work. He's ready to go here and has a fantastic 1.32 ERA and a sparkling 0.44 WHIP in his two career outings against the Blue Jays. Look for the Rays to even up this series with a big home win Monday. *10* TAMPA BAY |
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04-04-16 | Phillies +150 v. Reds | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8*Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +150 @ Cincinnati @ 4:10 ET - This line has moved up all the way from an opener of -135 on the Reds to Cincinnati now being favored at a price of as high as -165. The Phillies are certainly "nothing special" but the key here is that neither are the Reds! NO TEAM IN THE MAJORS had fewer home wins than the Reds last year as Cincinnati won just 34 of their 81 home games last season. In other words, home field is not a huge edge for Cincy in this match-up. Also, Iglesias is only getting the opening day start because of the injury to DeSclafani. Iglesias had shoulder issues late last season and, as a result, he did not get a lot of live game action in Spring Training this year. I think it may take some time for Iglesias to "settle in" on the mound today as a result. As for the Phillies, Hellickson gets the start and he had a fantastic spring training. Philadelphia, like Cincinnati, is in the midst of a rebuilding project. After a great off-season where they cleaned house (including upper management that HAD TO GO), the Phillies have an all new "attitude" in their clubhouse and they offer great line value here as a big dog in this match-up. Hellickson is fully capable of a solid start while Iglesias is still "working out the kinks" from lost time this spring. In home games with a posted total of 8 to 8.5 runs last season, the Reds went 16-28 which means they won just 36% of such contests. I don't care who they are playing, Cincinnati doesn't belong in this price range and the added value of a favorable pitching match-up and favorable line move has me pulling the trigger on this one. *8* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-03-16 | Blue Jays +100 v. Rays | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Toronto Blue Jays Money Line +105 @ Tampa Bay @ 4:05 ET - Toronto has been waiting for this game for a long time and they'll be ready to go here. The Blue Jays have been very hungry to "get after it" again ever since they lost the ALCS to the Royals in disappointing fashion last October. Jays starting right-hander Marcus Stroman looked sharp this spring and he has the added edge of facing a Rays team that hasn't seen him since 2014. As for Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer, the righty certainly merits the #1 spot as an ace for this rotation. However, he wasn't tremendously sharp in spring training and he's facing a Blue Jays team that saw him three times after the All Star Break last season and that included a pair of starts in late September and early October. Certainly this is an edge for the Toronto hitters. Also, Archer was only 3-8 in home starts last season. Stroman has an overall 15-6 record in his young career. Both these teams play on artificial turf so certainly that is no edge for the Rays here. In fact, they've lost 33.8 units in games on turf the past two seasons while the Jays have compiled a 111-76 record in games on turf the past two seasons. That means we are getting excellent line value here with the Blue Jays at plus money, possessing the much stronger lineup, having an edge in starting pitching, and also with the bullpen edge. The Rays are expected by many to have a losing season this year while the Blue Jays are expected to make another post-season run. All in all, it's a lot of value with the road team here. *8* TORONTO |
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10-28-15 | Mets -118 v. Royals | 1-7 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* New York Mets -118 @ Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - The Mets let one slip away last night and they know it. 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 9th. No one on base...one out already...they were 2 outs away from a Game 1 victory. Next thing you know it is tied up and the Royals went on to win in 14 innings. I believe Jacob de Grom is the right guy to lead the Mets back into the winners circle tonight. He's been pitching deep into games, he gets a lot of strikeouts, his recent form has been fantastic, and the Royals are facing him for the first time. Contrast this with Johnny Cueto. The former Reds right-hander has faced the Mets many times (hitters are therefore familiar with him), he's struggled in many of his outings since coming over to Kansas City, and he got rocked in his most recent start and only recorded 6 outs! If he's knocked out early tonight it is trouble for the Royals because they used so much bullpen in last night's game. Of course the Mets used a lot of bullpen too but de Grom has been a machine of late and I expect another successful outing from here. The Mets are 11-1 in de Grom's last 12 road starts! Cueto's last 19 team starts have resulted in 12 losses against just 7 wins! Great value with the short road fave here. Play the New York Mets on the money line as an *8* selection. |
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10-27-15 | New York Mets -106 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* New York Mets Money Line -105 @ Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - To me, it is a big edge that the Mets Matt Harvey has never faced the Royals. That means he is an unknown to many of these Royals hitters and I expect him to have plenty of success against Kansas City tonight. Harvey has registered 29 strikeouts in his 18 and 2/3 innings of work this month and he should be able to add plenty to that dominance tonight as he faces hitters unfamiliar with his offerings. Conversely, Edinson Volquez of the Royals has faced the Mets 9 times in his career and his team has gone 2-7 in those starts as he's compiled a 5.69 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in those starts. Volquez faced the Mets twice last season and gave up 12 hits plus walked 6 in his 11 innings against New York. Look for him to struggle again here as he comes into this start having allowed 4 walks in each of his last three starts. He's continued to 'play with fire' in his recent outings and the confident Mets have the lineup to make him pay. The Mets confidence at the plate has been surging thanks to a four game sweep of the Cubs capped off by scoring 13 runs on 22 hits in their last two games against Chicago. The Mets are 27-13 the last 3 seasons combined when on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 and they get the job done again here as a small road favorite. Play the New York Mets on the money line as a *10* Top Play Tuesday. |
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10-23-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 7.5 +110 in Kansas City vs Toronto @ 8 ET - While I certainly have a ton of respect for Blue Jays southpaw David Price, the Royals are just such a strong hitting team. They have a very dangerous lineup that becomes even more of a threat for explosions on offense when they are at home. At Kauffman Stadium, this team can really pound the ball. Overall, in all games, prior to scoring just 1 run in Wednesday's loss, the Royals had won 5 of their last 6 games and averaged 8 runs per game in those 8 games. Kansas City did get to Price for 5 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings earlier in this series and a repeat performance would not surprise. Additionally, the Blue Jays certainly should match the Royals run for run in this one. Kansas City sends Yordano Ventura to the mound for this one and he was fortunate to only allow 3 earned runs to the Jays when he was matched up against Price on Saturday. Ventura allowed 8 hits in just 5 and 1/3 innings to Toronto and the damage certainly could have been much worse. Even still he has a 6.57 ERA in his last 3 starts and I expect the Jays to hit well here. Toronto is now 4-0 in the post-season when facing elimination and they've averaged 6.5 runs per game in those 4 games. The Jays offense stays hot here but I see a big game from the Royals lineup at home too and that spells O-V-E-R! Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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10-21-15 | New York Mets v. Chicago Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets @ 8:05 ET - After yesterday's game barely stayed under the total I see great value with today's posted total even though it's higher. With the wind blowing out to right-center this evening, and with this pitching match-up, the higher total is absolutely justified. The Mets are up 3-0 in this series and they are 24-11 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Overall, the over is 47-34 in Mets road games this season. Southpaw Steven Matz gets the start for the Mets this evening. Even though his most recent start only saw him allow 3 earned runs, he did give up 10 hits in less than 6 innings of work. The Cubs Jason Hammel has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits (including 2 homers) in his last two home starts which have spanned a total of only 7 innings. Look for his struggles at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field to continue tonight. With the recent struggles of these two starters combining with favorable weather conditions for the hitters, I expect a high-scoring slugfest here. Play OVER 9 runs in the Chicago Cubs game as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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10-21-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -140 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *7* Toronto Blue Jays Money Line -140 vs Kansas City @ 4:05 ET - As a road dog of +125 to +150 the Royals are on a long-term 160-247 run. At home with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the Blue Jays have gone 24-13 this season. Toronto is 28-13 in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record. The Jays also are 7-3 this season when coming off of game where they allowed 10 runs or more. After getting thoroughly embarrassed in yesterday's ugly loss, and with their backs up against the wall facing elimination, I look for a huge response from the Blue Jays today. The Royals Edinson Volquez did shut down the Jays earlier in this series but that start was at home. He was unimpressive 5-6 on the road this season. As for the Blue Jays Marco Estrada, he is happy to be pitching at home again for the first time in a month! All his starts have been coming on the road but now Estrada is back home where he's been dominant. In his seven home starts in the second half of the season, the Toronto right-hander never allowed more than two earned runs. His ERA at home for the second half of the season was a stellar 2.20 ERA during this great run. Look for him to resume it today at home. Play Toronto on the money line as a *7* selection Wednesday. |
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10-20-15 | New York Mets v. Chicago Cubs +117 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +117 vs New York Mets @ 8:05 ET - Essentially a must win game for the Cubs to get back into the series. So far all the Championship Series action in both the AL and NL has been dominated by the home team with a 5-0 mark for the hosts through Monday's action. I look for that trend to continue here as the Cubs hit the ball much better at home and also get a strong performance from Kyle Hendricks on the mound. The right-hander has a 1.62 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed just 7 hits in his last 16 and 2/3 innings of work. In his career against the Mets, Hendricks has given up just 1 earned run on 6 hits in 13 innings of work. Conversely, Jacob deGrom of the Mets has struggled in his career against the Cubs as he's allowed 11 earned runs on 17 hits (including 4 homers) in his 15 and 1/3 innings of work against the Cubs in his career. The Cubs have lost two straight games but previously were 8-1 in the month of October and I look for them to quickly resume their winning ways Tuesday. Play the Chicago Cubs on the money line as a *10* Top Play Tuesday. |
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10-20-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -150 | 14-2 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *6* Toronto Blue Jays Money Line -150 vs Kansas City @ 4:05 ET - You might expect a bounce back from the Royals after allowing 11 runs in yesterday's game. However, Kansas City is actually a money burning 10-13 the last 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. Also, as a dog in the +125 to +150 range, the Royals are 19-28 the last 3 seasons and on a long-term 159-247 run. The Blue Jays, with R.A. Dickey on the mound, are in this solid price range as a favorite with good reason. Toronto is 12-5 in his 17 home starts and Dickey is a solid 9-3 at home on the year. The knuckle-baller comes into this start with a stellar 1.66 ERA compiled in his last 3 starts. Toronto is 21-7 as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range and I just don't see the Royals slowing down this freight train at the Rogers Centre this afternoon. Keep in mind this will be just the 3rd start for the Royals Chris Young since late July. Play Toronto on the money line as a *6* selection Tuesday. |
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10-19-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays -161 | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *6* Toronto Blue Jays Money Line -160 vs Kansas City @ 8:05 ET -Â Johnny Cueto has allowed 43 earned runs in his last 11 starts and he's only averaged 6 innings per start so that equates to about a 6.00 ERA over a period of 11 starts and, off a rare strong outing in his last start, Cueto is likely to get pounded here. He went just 5-9 on the road this season that likely has a lot do with Kansas City being such a large dog here. The Royals, over the last three seasons, are only 9-19 when they are a road dog in a range of +150 to +175. As for the Blue Jays, they are 20-7 this season as a home favorite in a range of -150 to -175. Also, the Jays are a solid 5-1 in Marcus Stroman's starts this season. Yes we're having to lay a bit of a price here but lowering the star rating to a *6* certainly mitigates the risk and I do expect Toronto to roll here. The Blue Jays are thrilled to be back home and I look for their powerful line up to ride a wave of emotion here and pound Cueto! Play Toronto on the money line as a *6* selection Monday. |
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10-19-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Toronto vs Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - The OVER is now 10-2 in Johnny Cueto's last 12 starts. He's allowed 43 earned runs in his last 11 starts and he's only averaged 6 innings per start so that equates to about a 6.00 ERA over a period of 11 starts and, off a rare strong outing in his last start, Cueto is likely to get pounded here. He went just 5-9 on the road this season and, who knows what really happens on weekends around the Royals clubhouse, but an interesting tidbit is that the over is 11-4 this season in Monday games for Kansas City! As for the Blue Jays, the over is 7-2 in October games. Also, the over is 4-1 in playoff games for Toronto. Also, the over is 15-8 this season for the Jays when they are playing after a day off the previous day. The Blue Jays are thrilled to be back home and I look for their powerful line up to ride a wave of emotion here and pound Cueto! Play OVER the total in Toronto as a *10* Top Play selection Monday. |
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10-16-15 | Toronto Blue Jays -117 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays -117 @ Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - I expect the Blue Jays to ride the wave of emotion from rallying back not only in that crazy 7th inning of Game 5 of their ALDS with Texas, but also the fact that the Blue Jays were down 2-0 in that series but came all the way back by winning 3 straight. Toronto also has the much hotter pitcher going in this match-up. Marco Estrada has been incredible ever since the All Star break. The Jays right-hander is 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA since the All-Star break and batters are only hitting .183 against him since mid-July also. That is incredible long-term consistency and I look for him to give the Royals hitters fits in Friday's Game 1 of the ALCS. Look for the Jays to enjoy success at the plate against the Royals Edinson Volquez Friday. He is winless in his last 5 starts and has given up 32 hits and walked 14 for a total of 46 baserunners in his last 28 and 2/3 innings of work. Too many baserunners can get you into trouble in no time and this is especially true against a surging and poweful lineup like the Jays possess. The Blue Jays have averaged 5 runs per game in their last 8 games overall and 5.4 runs per game in their last 5 road games. So, even in pressure-filled October, the boys from north of the border continue to get the job done. I look for that to the be the case again tonight as well. Toronto is 17-6 when playing with a day off and the Blue jays are 27-10 in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record. Play Toronto as a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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10-15-15 | New York Mets +144 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3-2 | Win | 144 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* New York Mets Money Line +145 @ LA Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - Jacob de Grom was so dominate in his first effort against the Dodgers in this series he's absolutely worth a look here as a sizable dog in Game 5. De Grom held LA to just 5 hits in 7 scoreless innings while also striking out 13. This is pure domination and I look for more of the same tonight in LA as his first start in this series was also on the road. While I certainly respect Zack Greinke of the Dodgers, he did allow two homers to the Mets in his first start in this series and that was in Los Angeles. With that said, he would not have beaten the Mets had he been matched up with de Grom like he is for tonight's crucial Game Five. In fact, these pitchers did match up back on July 26th and the Mets took that game behind de Grom. He has not allowed an earned run in either of his last two starts against the Dodgers...a stretch of 14 and 2/3 scoreless innings. Look for him to dominate again tonight. Los Angeles is a money-burning 7-11 this season when playing after a day off. Look for the Mets to improve to 13-3 in de Grom's last 16 starts as they advance to the NLCS by relishing and embracing the "us against the world" underdog mentality tonight. Play the New York Mets on the money line as an *8* selection Thursday. |
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10-14-15 | Houston Astros v. Kansas City Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 7.5 runs -103 in Kansas City vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - This total has dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 and I see great value with the over in this one. It should be a cool but pleasant evening in Kansas City and I expect both pitchers to struggle some here. The Astros Collin McHugh certainly has impressive full season numbers. However, he only recorded 1 strikeout in his first start against the Royals in this series. That means, of course, that Kansas City is not having a problem making contact with is offerings and I expect them to do more damage here in their second shot against him tonight. After being held to two runs in the Game 1 loss, the Royals have responded by taking 2 of the next 3 and scoring 16 runs in the process. Look for their offense to remain hot tonight. The issue for KC here is going to be their own pitching. Johnny Cueto truly has struggled in Royals uniform. Though he pitched "okay" against the Astros in the first match-up, he still is involved in a long-term stretch that has seen him allow 41 earned runs in his last 57 and 1/3 innings. That equates to a 6.44 ERA and I certainly expect him to struggle again here. The Astros have scored at least 4 runs in each game in this series and I look for them to get at least that again tonight. With the Royals also hot at the plate, the result should be an easy over. Play OVER 7.5 runs in Kansas City as a *10* Top Play Wednesday. |
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10-14-15 | Texas Rangers v. Toronto Blue Jays -175 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *6* Toronto Blue Jays -175 vs Texas @ 4:05 ET - Normally I don't lay prices like this in the money line sports but, in the post-season, I am not going to pass up on an opportunity like this. By reducing the rating on this play to a *6* play it keeps the risk amount in the *10* range while offering a nice *6* payback and I like my chances here with the Blue Jays. Toronto has all the momentum heading into this game after winning both contests down in Texas. While I do respect Cole Hamels of the Rangers this is still a tough spot for him and a lot on his shoulders in this road match-up. I feel the Blue Jays Marcus Stroman outpitched him in their first match-up in this series and the young right-hander has a phenomenal 1.64 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.12 ERA in his five starts this year. Hamels has a 4.09 ERA in his last 3 starts and the southpaw was just 7-6 with a 3.90 ERA on the road this season. The Rangers are 80-134 long-term as a road dog between +150 and +175. The Blue Jays are 9-1 this season as a home favorite of -175 to -200. After winning the last two games by a combined score of 13 to 5, look for the Blue Jays to roll again this afternoon. Play Toronto on the money line as a *6* selection Wednesday. |
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10-13-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. New York Mets +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* New York Mets Run Line +1.5 -120 vs LA Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - Kershaw is pitching on short rest here and the ability get the Mets at home and +1.5 runs and basically in a pick'em price range all adds up to be a phenomenal value in this spot. I don't expect Kershaw to be at his best in this spot. The Dodgers only went 7-9 this season in his road starts and the Mets already beat him in LA in game one of this series. That certainly helps their confidence level here as they look to close out this series at home and avoid the trip west for a game five. I like the Mets' chances for that with Steven Matz at home. The Mets went 2-0 in his home starts and overall 5-1 in all 6 of his starts this season. Matz produced an overall 2.27 ERA and this included a phenomenal 1.98 ERA in his home outings. The lefty, back on July 5th, shut down the Dodgers in LA and I look for another strong performance from him here against Los Angeles. The Mets are 50-32 at home this season and, keep in mind, even a 1 run loss here would still cash our ticket. As for the Dodgers, they destroyed bettors as a road favorite this season as they went 16-25 when on the road and favored in the 125 to 175 range (as they are tonight). Play the New York Mets on the run line +1.5 runs as an *8* selection Tuesday. |
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