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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-16-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach Divisional Total of the Month MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees vs Boston @ 4:05 ET - A pair of struggling southpaws match up at Yankee Stadium Saturday afternoon and that means, even though the Yanks have had some struggles with lefties this season, there should be a barrage of hits against Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez in this one. The southpaw has gone winless with an 11.54 ERA in his last 3 starts. His lefty counterpart tonight is C.C. Sabathia who is likely to get lit up by Boston. Sabathia is also winless in his last 3 starts and he has a 7.71 ERA during this stretch. The veteran left-hander has in fact allowed 5 earned runs or more in 4 straight starts! The over, heading into the All Star Break, was on a 14-5-3 run in Yankees games. The over in Boston games was on a 12-6 run heading into the All Star Break. The mindset of Rodriguez for the Red Sox also could be called into question because his winless in the 7 starts he has made at the minor league level as well this season. Yankees bats should have no trouble with his offerings while Boston has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball and should have no trouble pounding a struggling hurler whom they are very familiar with. Indeed Sabathia's struggles continue. The over is 9-3 in Red Sox Saturday games this season and Boston entered last night's action with a mark of 8-2 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Yankees are 5-1 to the over this season in home games where their money line is -100 to -125. *10* OVER in New York Yankees |
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07-16-16 | Rangers +126 v. Cubs | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Earliest Cash MLB *8* Texas Rangers Money Line +125 @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET - The Rangers fell apart in the 6th inning yesterday in their eventual defeat and it was a rare shutout loss for Texas. The Rangers have excelled this season when they are coming off of poor efforts at the plate and this has been particularly true the last 60 days. Over the past two months, when Texas scores 2 runs or less in a game, they have gone a PERFECT 11-0 in their next game. Couple that with the fact that Yu Darvish is on the mound for the Rangers and I am very comfortable backing them in this underdog role. Darvish is 41-25 with a 3.26 ERA in his career and opponents have only hit .216 against him! The Cubs lineup will be filled with hitters who have little to no experience against Darvish. Conversely, Cubs starter Jason Hammel will be facing a number of Rangers hitters who have plenty of experience against him. Additionally, Hammel is 0-3 in his last 4 starts and he has allowed 18 earned runs in the 20 and 2/3 innings spanning those 4 outings. Even with yesterday's win the Cubs are only 7-15 in their last 22 games and I look for the Rangers to improve to 12-0 the last 12 times they are off of a game where they were held to 2 runs or less. *8* TEXAS RANGERS |
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07-15-16 | Indians v. Twins +135 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Underdog Shocker *10* Minnesota Twins Money Line +140 @ Cleveland @ 8:10 ET - The Twins won 7 of their last 9 games before the All Star break. The two losses came by a total of just 3 runs. The 7 wins came by a combined 45 runs. Minnesota is undervalued now in this opening game spot after the All Star break. The Indians come into this game having lost 6 of their last 9 games and Cleveland lost 4 of those games by a margin of 3 runs or more including a pair of losses by double digit margins. Certainly I respect the Indians Carlos Carrasco, the starting pitcher for this one, but he got rocked by the Yankees in his final start before the All Star break. Also, he is only 1-5 in his career against Minnesota and the Twins got to him for 11 earned runs in less than 16 innings in his last three starts against them. Ervin Santana gets the start for Minny in this one and he has allowed just 2 earned runs on 10 hits in 13 innings of work in his last two starts against the Indians. Additionally, the Minnesota right-hander has given up a total of only 5 earned runs on 17 hits in the 28 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts before the All Star break. The Twins are the hotter team with arguably the hotter pitcher. They also, as you can see, are a sizable home dog here, and that makes them well worth the play. As a road favorite of -125 to -150, look for the Indians to drop to a money-burning 5-7 on the season. Santana wins his 3rd straight over the Tribe. *10* MINNESOTA |
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07-15-16 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 9 in Cincinnati vs Milwaukee @ 7:10 ET Friday - The Brewers send Matt Garza to the hill again and he is getting hit at a .336 clip this season. This is truly "nothing new" as he got hammered at a .294 clip last year and that was a season in which Garza ended up 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA for Milwaukee. Facing the Reds is unlikely to get him back on track to start the 2nd half of the season. Garza has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits in 8 and 1/3 innings of work in his last two starts against Cincinnati. Both of those outings have been within the past 12 months. Garza will be opposed by the Reds Anthony DeSclafani who has a 2.23 ERA on the season but has to be one of the most fortunate guys around. He's been hit at a .284 clip this year so it's not like he's been dominant in the 6 starts he has made this season. Also, he has been rocked at a .303 clip in 2014 and .279 clip in 2015 so far in his young career. DeSclafani gave up 5 runs (4 earned) in 4 and 1/3 innings the last time he faced the Brewers and I look for more of the same here. The Reds have recorded just 6 unders in their last 18 games and play their home games in a very hitter-friendly park. Look for another wild one here. *8* OVER in Cincinnati Friday |
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07-15-16 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Philadelphia vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET Friday - Bartolo Colon gets the start for the Mets Friday. Although he was successful in shutting down the Phillies quite well in a pair of starts in April, the Phils were winning with pitching back then. Philadelphia's current winning streak has been thanks to hitting and they're catching Colon at the right time to do some damage. Not only are they seeing him for a 3rd time this season but also he was rocked for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in less than 5 innings of work in his final start before the all star break. He'll be opposed by the Phillies Jeremy Hellickson in this one. The veteran righty gave up 4 earned runs on 10 hits in only 4 and 1/3 innings of work the last time he faced the Mets and they'll be seeing him for a 3rd time this season. Hellickson has not pitched as well in evening games as he has under the sun as he has a 2.78 ERA in day games but a 4.50 ERA in night games this season. Citizens Bank Field is hitter-friendly and the Phillies entered the All Star Break having gone 23-13 to the over in their last 36 games! The Mets 56 homers on the road ranks them 4th in the National League and I look for some fireworks as they have already hit 3 homers in Hellickson's 10 innings against them this season. *10* OVER in Philadelphia Friday |
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07-15-16 | Rangers +181 v. Cubs | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* Texas Rangers Money Line +180 @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET Friday - Way too much value on the Rangers is being offered here. Texas slumped some entering the break but so too did the Cubs. That said, I like the fact that the Rangers are a huge dog here even though they are 21-14 when off of a loss this season and 53-33 in their games played on grass this year. The Cubs are off of a win prior to the break but had gone 5-15 in their 20 prior games. The point is that the Cubbies slump and having Kyle Hendricks on the mound certainly doesn't merit them being a 2 to 1 fave here. Yes the Cubs are at home here but they have lost 6 of their last 7 at Wrigley Field. Also, the Cubs Hendricks only has three strikeouts in 7 innings this month and he allowed a homer in all 6 of his starts in the month of June. The Rangers Martin Perez is off of a rough start but he had given up only 3 earned runs on 11 hits in 13 innings in his two prior starts and he'll bounce back here against a lineup that is unfamiliar with the crafty lefty. Perez has excelled in daytime outings throughout his career with a 2.92 ERA in 123 and 1/3 innings in day games! Look for the Rangers to get the upset here and I'll gladly grab the big dog value with the team with the #1 record in the entire American League at the All Star Break. *8* TEXAS money line Friday |
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07-12-16 | American League v. National League OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in National League vs American League @ 8:15 ET Tuesday - Unlike the NFL (Pro Bowl) or NBA (All Star Game), the MLB game is anything but meaningless. The fact that the World Series host league is decided based on who wins this game definitely has helped to keep the competition level up for this game. That said, I look for another dandy this year. Even though Petco Park is certainly known as a pitcher-friendly park, the Padres have surprisingly been recording a lot of overs in their home park this season. This has been especially true over more than the past month too so it's no fluke. Certainly San Diego's home park is no hitters' park but the production at the plate here has been stronger than usual this season. Three of the last four All Star games have totaled at least 8 runs and, though it was more than two decades ago, historians will be glad to know the last time an All Star Game was held in San Diego it totaled 19 runs! This season overall in the big leagues it has been notable that offense does seem to be "up" on the year. Even in April there seemed to be more high-scoring games than usual but certainly once the warmer weather of May and June (and now July) arrived, the scoring really seems to be on an "uptick" this season. Of course it goes without saying that there will be plenty of talented pitchers as well as talented players in San Diego for this one. The keys for me are the fact that hitters have had the upper hand quite often this season and the fact that Petco Park has been playing to unusually high-scoring games this season. The past 7 weeks the over is 16-7 (70%) in games played at Petco Park. For the 4th time in the past 5 years, and with plenty to play for again this season, I look for at least 8 runs to be scored in the MLB All Star Game. *10* OVER in MLB All Star Game Tuesday |
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07-10-16 | Phillies +168 v. Rockies | Top | 10-3 | Win | 168 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +165 @ Colorado @ 4:10 ET - There is tremendous line value here. The Phillies and Rockies have nearly identical records on the season and even Philadelphia's road record is not much worse than Colorado's home record. The Phils are seeking revenge after the 8-3 beating they took last night and, odds are, they will get it! That is another reason the big dog price here is certainly a "risk" well worth the taking! Believe it or not, the Phillies have not lost back to back games since June 21st and 22nd. That means that for the past three weeks you can't find a set of back to back losses for the Phils and I expect them to again bounce back strong here off of a defeat. The Phillies were on a 9-2 run their last 11 games prior to yesterday's loss. Philadelphia's Zach Eflin gets the start here and he has pitched very well ever since a rough outing in his MLB debut. The Phillies have won each of his last two starts and Eflin has compiled a 1.71 ERA and stellar 0.81 WHIP in his last three outings overall. The Rockies Tyler Chatwood has been going the opposite direction. He has only lasted a total of 6 and 2/3 innings in his last two starts and he has a 4.72 ERA in his last 3 starts that easily could be much higher as walks have been a major issue for the Rockies right-hander. Chatwood has a losing record (and a 5.10 ERA) in his home starts this season. Colorado had lost 8 of its last 10 games before yesterday's victory. The Rockies haven't won back to back games since winning three straight from June 25th to the 27th. Insane underdog line value here and I'll take it. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-10-16 | Mariners v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City vs Seattle @ 2:15 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total but, based on the pitching match-up and the wind blowing out to left at a good clip this afternoon, a slugfest can be expected Sunday. The Mariners are starting Mike Montgomery. The southpaw has pitched well out of the bullpen this season but is now making a spot start for Seattle. The M's lefty struggled often in the starting role last year and, in his last three starts of 2015, Montgomery gave up 17 earned runs on 23 hits in less than 10 innings of work! He's facing a Royals team that did get the sticks going again yesterday as they pounded out 12 hits in only 8 innings! Kansas City is hitting .286 against left-handed pitching this season which is good for the #2 spot out of all 30 MLB teams. Seattle is hitting .266 against right-handed pitching and that is good for the #5 spot among AL teams. The Mariners should have no trouble with the offerings of Dillon Gee. The Royals right-hander was 0-3 with a 7.90 ERA last season with the Mets in 8 games (7 starts) and he got hit at a .329 clip! This season, opponents are hitting .299 against Gee and that includes his numbers out of the pen but he's been even worse as a starter. This will be just his 5th start of the season and he's making a spot start here. Gee has gone 2-2 with a 6.05 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP this year as a starter. Gee has been particularly roughed up in his last two starts and they both went over the total. This one should too because neither pitcher is likely to enjoy success here and the Mariners had gone 8-6 and averaged 5 runs per game in their last 14 games before yesterday's tough effort at the plate. The Royals are averaging 5 runs per game in their last 13 home games and will build off of yesterday's strong effort at the plate. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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07-10-16 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 10 in Baltimore vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:35 ET - The Angels Tim Lincecum won his first start but he has struggled mightily since then. In his last 3 starts he has gone winless with a 10.50 ERA and a ridiculous 2.58 WHIP. Although his counterpart, Chris Tillman, has much better numbers on the season, he has a similarity in that he is also struggling. The Orioles right-hander is off of a good start at Los Angeles against the Dodgers but he previously allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts! As you would expect, all 5 of those starts went over the total. Though yesterday's game stayed under the total, Baltimore had gone over the total in 9 of their 11 prior games! The Angels had been on a 9-6 run to the over before yesterday's 3-2 loss to the Orioles. The Angels are 35-24 to the over against right-handed starters this season. The O's are 8-4 to the over the last 12 times they have been a home favorite of -175 to -200. Also, Baltimore is 17-6 to the over in day games this season. I look for the over to improve to 10-2 in Orioles Sunday games this season with a wild one at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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07-10-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 10.5 in Toronto vs Detroit @ 1:05 ET - The Tigers Anibal Sanchez is having a rough season and certainly is showing no signs of snapping out of it. The Detroit right-hander has a 12.41 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in his last three starts. Of course both of those statistics are very poor and a visit to Toronto is unlikely to help matters for Sanchez. The last time he pitched at the Rogers Centre he was rocked for 4 earned runs on 10 hits in less than 5 innings of work. His counterpart for that start was the same as today as he matched up with R.A. Dickey. The veteran knuckle-baller gets the start for the Jays here and he has a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts against the Tigers but that could easily be even higher. Dickey has given up 26 hits (including 4 homers) in the less than 18 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against Detroit. Although Dickey comes into this start off of a strong outing in his most recent appearance, he prior two starts show his form hasn't been "top notch" recently. Dickey gave up 8 runs (7 earned) on 14 hits (including 6 homers!) in the 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his two prior starts. The over is 11-2 in the 13 starts Sanchez has made this season. The over is 20-12 in Detroit's day games this season plus 38-23 against right-handed starters and 30-17 in their games against teams with a winning record on the season. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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07-09-16 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 105 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach AL Total of the Month *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Texas vs Minnesota @ 9:05 ET - The Rangers are turning to Kyle Lohse for this start. That is unlikely to have positive results for Texas as Lohse is 3-5 with a 5.06 ERA in his 10 starts at AAA Round Rock this season down in the minors. In his most recent MLB activity, last season, Lohse compiled a 5-13 record with Milwaukee as he was done in by a 5.85 ERA and getting hit at a .297 clip. The 37 year old right-hander is simply not the pitcher he once was and the Twins should pound him. Yesterday's game went over the total and Minnesota had had just 3 unders in their last 10 games. The Twins have produced 6.4 runs per game while averaging nearly 10 hits per game in their last 12 games. Lohse faced Minny twice last season and he gave up 9 earned runs in 12 innings against the Twins. Minnesota has a pitching concern of their own in this game. Ricky Nolasco gets the start and he is 3-7 with a 5.26 ERA on the season plus he has allowed 14 earned runs on 23 hits in the 18 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. His last game stayed under the total but that was just the 3rd under in 17 Nolasco starts this season! Yes indeed, he has been an "over machine" in 2016. Texas has also been an "over machine" of late as they have had just 3 unders in their last 12 games. The Rangers are a top 5 team this season for home batting average (.281) and the Twins are averaging 7.6 runs per game in their last 7 games. The over is an incredible 26-12 in Minnesota's games against teams with a winning record this season and even more incredible 34-12 in Twins night games this season! The Rangers have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 16 games and both teams have had bullpen issues this season too. All signs point to an absolute slugfest here. *10* OVER 11.5 in Texas |
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07-09-16 | Cubs v. Pirates +151 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 151 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Pennsylvania (PA) Insider *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line +150 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - The Cubs continue to be over-priced. I faded them yesterday successfully and I again like my chances today with the big dog Pirates. Yesterday's 8-4 Pittsburgh win dropped the Cubs to 5-14 in their last 19 games. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs today and certainly has been a successful pitcher for a very long time but the veteran southpaw is off of a poor start where he allowed 8 earned runs in only 1 and 1/3 innings of work. Lester has enjoyed success against the Pirates this season but this will already be the 4th time they have seen him in the last couple months. Pittsburgh got to him for 3 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings of work in their most recent match-up on June 18th. Also, when Lester most recently pitched in Pittsburgh he did manage to keep the Pirates off the scoreboard but he was quite fortunate as they got to him for 8 hits and 2 walks in 5 and 2/3 innings of work. In other words, the Pirates certainly had some scoring chances versus Lester but they couldn't take advantage. This evening they likely will as the Pirates are hot with an 11-3 mark in their last 14 games. Pittsburgh has averaged 5.3 runs per game during this streak and they shouldn't need a lot of run support with Chad Kuhl on the mound. The Cubs have never faced him and he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his first two outings. Look for the Pirates to improve to 14-8 against left-handed starters this season as they stay hot and continue to close the gap on the fading Cubs. *10* PITTSBURGH |
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07-09-16 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 10 in Boston vs Tampa Bay @ 4:05 ET - The Rays are winless in Matt Moore's 6 road starts this season and the Rays southpaw has gone 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in these six outings. The Red Sox are undefeated in Rick Porcello's home starts this season but the Red Sox right-hander has given up 8 runs (7 earned) while allowing 20 hits in only 11 and 1/3 innings of work spanning his last two outings at Fenway Park. The over is 9-2 in Porcello's last 11 starts. With yesterday's 6-5 Red Sox win going over the total, the over is 11-4 in Boston's last 15 games. As a home fave of -150 to -175, the Red Sox are 5-1 to the over this season. Also, Boston has gone 9-2 to the over in Saturday games this year. When playing against a team with a losing record, the over is 29-16 in Red Sox games this season. The over is 23-13 in Rays road games this season. Tampa Bay has 17 hits in the 14 innings spanning Porcello's last two starts against the Rays here at Fenway Park. Moore has gone 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA in his career outings against the Red Sox. Moore has been great at home this season while struggling badly on the road. Porcello has been fantastic overall this season but has started to fade in his recent home starts and I expect him to struggle again in afternoon action Saturday. *8* OVER 10 in Boston |
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07-08-16 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 10 in Boston vs Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Chris Archer is a big "name" among pitchers in MLB but he's certainly had his share of struggles this season and this has been particularly true on the road. Archer has just 3 wins in his 9 road starts this season and he has compiled a 6.66 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP away from. Not surprisingly, only 3 unders have resulted in those 9 road starts. Archer will be facing the Red Sox for the third time this season and, so far, he has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings of work against the BoSox. Boston will counter with Sean O'Sullivan tonight and the over is a perfect 3-0 in his starts this season. O'Sullivan is 2-0 as a starter this season but his 6.46 ERA and 1.70 WHIP tell the real story. The over is 10-2 this season in Rays road games where they are a small dog in the +100 to +125 range. The over is 37-25 in Red Sox games against right-handed starters this season. The over is 25-17 when Boston is off of a win and 28-16 in their games against teams with a losing record this season. With the Red Sox off of an 11-6 win and having averaged 11 runs per game in their last 4 games, they should have no trouble connecting against an inconsistent Archer tonight. The Rays and Red Sox have combined to go over the total in 4 of their 6 meetings this season and O'Sullivan will bring out the best in a Rays lineup looking to bounce back after some recent struggles at the plate. Tampa Bay does tend to produce more runs on the road than at home. *8* OVER in Boston |
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07-08-16 | Cubs v. Pirates +155 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 155 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates +155 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Tremendous line value here with the home underdog. With yesterday's loss the Cubs have now lost 13 of their last 18 games. Their slump is noteworthy and should not be ignored. As for the Pirates, they also did lose yesterday but they had previously won 7 straight and 10 of their last 12. That said, Pittsburgh has been closing the gap with the Cubs in the NL Central and they view this weekend series before the All Star Break as a golden opportunity to make a little more headway with their endeavor. The Cubs Jake Arrieta has been slumping as he has a 5.87 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last three starts. He has walked 11 in the 15 and 1/3 innings spanning these three starts and though he's had great success against the Pirates this season, he is not pitching like he was earlier in the season! Pittsburgh will have Franciso Liriano on the mound and the veteran lefty has shown the ability in his career to be a "big game" pitcher and he knows this one is big! Liriano wasn't overly dominant in his most recent start but he got the win and got his walks back under control too. He's given up 26 hits in his last 26 innings so his pitching hasn't been as bad as his ERA during this stretch may lead you to believe. Showing better command against the A's and now back in Pittsburgh where he allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his first 6 home starts I expect Liriano to come up big tonight with a strong outing. The Pirates are 7-1 their last 8 games and 38-21 in July games the past three seasons and 43-21 in Friday games the past three seasons. Look for the Cubs to drop to 1-7 in July as they lose for the 8th time in their last 9 games. Huge value with the home dog in this one. *10* PITTSBURGH |
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07-08-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Toronto vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - The Tigers Mike Pelfrey is off of a RARE good start as he held the Rays in check in Tampa Bay Sunday. He still is winless on the road this season and has a 5.42 ERA on the year. Also, even including that good start, Pelfrey has allowed 30 hits in the less than 17 innings of work spanning his last three starts. Now he faces a red hot Blue Jays team that has won 6 straight games and is on a 9-4 run in their last 13 games that has seen Toronto produce an average of nearly 7 runs per game! Pelfrey has been rocked for 9 earned runs in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Blue Jays. He'll be opposed by Toronto's J.A. Happ this evening in Toronto. The Jays southpaw has led his team to only 1 win in his 5 career starts against the Tigers while producing a 5.16 ERA in those outings. In his 3 starts against Detroit within the past year, Happ has been rocked for 13 earned runs in 16 innings of work. The over is 6-2 in Happ's 8 home starts this season. Pelfrey's most recent start was a surprising one that stayed under the total but 7 of his 11 prior starts went over the total and I look for a return to "normalcy" for the ultra hittable Pelfrey tonight. Detroit's games against team with a winning record this season have gone 30-15 (67%) to the over. The Tigers, before last night's 5-4 loss here, had won 7 of their last 9 games and averaged nearly 7 runs per game during the hot streak. Plenty of pop in both of these lineups and plenty of reason to believe both hurlers struggle tonight. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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07-07-16 | Phillies v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Philadelphia @ 8:40 ET - The Phillies Adam Morgan has a 1.60 WHIP. The Rockies Chad Bettis has a 1.52 WHIP. Allowing too many base-runners (measured by Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched) is a key measurement in looking at all MLB match-ups but it is especially key at Coors Field. That's because it is the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the entire league and the ball carries so well that big innings are commonplace in this venue. Yes the total of 12 (and possibly moving to 12.5 or higher) is certainly a big number but it is absolutely justified in this situation. The Phillies have been hitting the ball very well. The Phils 4-3 win yesterday makes them 9-3 their last 12 games. Philadelphia has averaged scoring 6 runs per game in these dozen games! The Rockies, as so typically happens, struggled to score runs on their west coast road trip that wrapped up last night in San Francisco. However, Colorado is thrilled to be back home where they are simply a different team! The Rockies are hitting .305 at home this season (and remember the pitcher bats too in NL parks so this is an insane team batting average) and Colorado has averaged 6.34 runs per game at Coors Field. The Phillies Morgan has a 6.55 ERA on the season and the Rockies Bettis has a 6.69 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. 4 of his last 5 home starts have gone over the total while Morgan's starts have resulted in 5 straight overs! I expect 6-0, 100% here and I also expect the Rockies to improve to 8-0, 100% overs in Thursday games this season. Two 100% streaks being tested here. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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07-07-16 | A's +116 v. Astros | Top | 3-1 | Win | 116 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Oakland A's +115 @ Houston @ 8:10 ET - Oakland is off of a shutout loss at Minnesota yesterday. Houston is off of a win where they got some surprising big hits and also took advantage of an uncharacteristic 3 errors on the part of Seattle. The Astros are still only 11-15 against left-handed starters this season and Rich Hill is a tough one. He's a perfect 6-0 on the road this season for the A's while compiling a 1.40 ERA away from home. Hill has simply been phenomenal. The Astros are 1-8 on Thursdays this season and coupling that with the Athletics 6-0 mark in Hill's road starts and you have a combined 14-1 angle working in Oakland's favor here. I look for the A's to improve to 3-1 this season when off of a shutout loss. The Athletics should take advantage of the Astros Doug Fister as the Houston right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits in the 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, Fister walked 5 in his most recent start and he wasn't even able to complete 5 innings in that outing. The Astros had a 3-game losing streak in Fister's starts earlier this season and I look for a defeat today to make it another 3-game losing streak in his starts. The A's .261 batting average on the road ranks them in the top third of the majors while the Astros .229 batting average against southpaws ranks them dead last in the American League. *10* OAKLAND |
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07-07-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB PA Insider *8* UNDER 8.5 in St Louis vs Pittsburgh @ 1:45 ET - The Cardinals Adam Wainwright has a 2.15 ERA in his last 7 home starts. The Pirates will have 6'8 Tyler Glasnow making his MLB debut. The big right-hander is an imposing presence on the mound and he's already been using that to his advantage in the minors and is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Glasnow is 7-2 with a 1.78 ERA and has been a strikeout machine at AAA Indianapolis. Yesterday's game went over the total but 6 of the Cardinals 7 prior games stayed under the total. The under is also 7-1-1 in Wainwright's last 9 starts. That's right, since mid-May, only 1 of his starts has resulted in an over. 8 of Wainwright's last 10 starts have been quality starts. When the Pirates have been on a wining streak of 3 games or more the past three seasons, they have gone 47-28 to the under. Cardinals Thursday games are 6-2 to the under this season and their home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs have resulted in an 11-5 mark to the under. When the Cards have been on a losing streak of 3 games or more the past three seasons, they have gone 11-6 to the under. Look for a pitchers duel between the phenom and the veteran in this one as they both try to outduel each other in what should prove to be an intriguing match-up this afternoon. *8* UNDER in St Louis |
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07-07-16 | Angels v. Rays OVER 9 | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 9 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels @ 12:10 ET - The Angels will start Hector Santiago who has walked 8 in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts and the Rays will start Blake Snell who has walked 8 in the less than 11 innings spanning his last two starts. As you can, both pitchers are having issues with command of their pitches. The Rays won 7-2 yesterday and have now won 3 of their last 5 games and scored 9.6 runs per game during this hot streak at the plate. Snell won't slow them down! He has a 5.15 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP in his 3 home starts this season. The Rays got to Santiago for 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start against them and that was recent enough (last summer) to reasonably expect Tampa Bay to again enjoy success against him. Though Tampa Bay has scored only 11 runs in the first three games of this four game series, the Rays have averaged 10 hits per game and they continue their "hit parade" today against Santiago. The overs is 12-7 in Tampa Bay's games against left-handed starters this season and the over is 5-1 in Rays Thursday games this year. *8* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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07-06-16 | Mariners +146 v. Astros | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB 1st Half Game of the Year *10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Money Line +140 @ Houston @ 8:10 ET - Wade LeBlanc has been phenomenal in his first two starts since the Mariners picked him up. It really is no fluke as LeBlanc had been fantastic and consistent at the AAA level (Buffalo) in the Blue Jays organization when Seattle picked him up from Toronto. LeBlanc has struck out 8 while walking just 2 and allowing only 6 hits and 2 earned runs in 12 innings of work spanning his first two starts as a member of the M's. A big key here for the Mariners southpaw is that he is facing a team that is the worst in the American League in terms of batting average versus southpaws. Houston is hitting a paltry .226 against left-handed pitching this season! To put that in perspective, every other American League team is hitting at least .250 against lefties this season! Another key angle here is that the Astros are a former team of LeBlanc's so, even though his stay in Houston was very short, he certainly would love nothing more than to beat an organization that didn't give him much of a chance. Simply put, LeBlanc has been on top of his game all season long and that should continue against a team that is simply awful against lefties this season. The Astros will have Mike Fiers on the mound and I am well aware of his successful numbers at home this season. However, this is still a guy who, overall, is getting hit at a .282 clip on the season! In other words, Fiers has been playing with "fire" for much of this season and it is only a matter of time before a true "correction" to his numbers takes place. He's off of a good start against the White Sox but previously was hit hard in 3 of his last 6 starts and I expect the Mariners to certainly do enough damage to support the red hot LeBlanc in this one and that leads to a road victory at a fantastic underdog price. The Mariners had won 7 of their last 9 games heading into this Houston series and they avoid the sweep and resume the winning this evening. *10* SEATTLE |
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07-06-16 | Brewers v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Washington vs Milwaukee @ 4:05 ET - Matt Garza has a 3.74 ERA on the season in his limited action thusfar but he's been about as lucky as you can be. Garza has given up 29 hits in less than 22 innings of work spanning his 4 starts. One of those starts came against the Nationals less than 2 weeks ago so the Nats will be getting a quick second look at him. Likewise, Washington's Tanner Roark just faced the Brewers less than 2 weeks ago so Milwaukee is getting a quick second look at him. These types of scenarios (especially with two mediocre pitchers) usually work out well for the hitters! Roark has allowed 15 hits in the 14 innings spanning his last two starts but amazingly has given up only 2 earned runs during this time. His "luck" runs out today in a rematch with the Brewers. Yesterday's game was a 5-2 Milwaukee win and there hasn't been much scoring so far in this series but that should change on a mild afternoon in DC with favorable conditions for the hitters. The ball should be jumping off the bats today and Garza is not a strikeout pitcher and Roark's strikeout numbers have been trending downward of late. This is one of those contrarian plays where the public sees two guys with low ERAs but I see two pitchers who have been fortunate and are currently over-rated as a result. Roark was 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA and a .279 BAA last season. Garza was 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA and was hit at a .294 clip last season. Back to reality for these two hurlers today as the bats come alive in the finale! *10* OVER in Washington |
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07-06-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets vs Miami @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a 5-2 Marlins win that stayed just under the total. Miami is still 9-2 to the over in their last 11 games. With Justin Nicolino on the mound for the Marlins, the over streak should quickly resume today. The Miami southpaw has made 11 starts this season and the over is 8-3 in those games. Each of Nicolino's last 5 games have gone over the total and that is not a "shocker" considering that he's simply been getting hammered as if he's throwing batting practice. The Marlins left-hander has given up 30 earned runs on 63 hits in the 40 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 8 starts. That equates to a 6.69 ERA and, as you can see, Nicolino has been extremely hittable. He has not last longer than 5 and 2/3 innings in 8 straight starts. He'll be opposed by Jacob deGrom of the Mets. The New York right-hander has excellent stats this season and that is helping to keep this total on the low side. The key here is that deGrom has given up 9 earned runs on 19 hits in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts against the Marlins and both of those starts occurred in the past 10 months. The Mets just saw Nicolino less than 5 weeks ago and he was fortunate he allowed only 2 earned runs as he was rocked for 9 hits in 5 and and 1/3 innings. Look for the over to go to 6-3 this season in deGrom's home starts. The over is 18-10 in Marlins day games this season and 27-15 in Miami's road games this season as they are the #1 hitting team on the road so far this year out of all 30 MLB teams. *8* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets |
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07-06-16 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 12-2 | Win | 102 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 8.5 in Cleveland vs Detroit @ 12:10 ET - The over is 6-3 in Michael Fullmer's 9 road starts this season. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Josh Tomlin's 7 home starts this season. With yesterday's easy over (12-1 Indians win) the over is now 19-4 in the last 23 meetings between these clubs in Cleveland. This will be the 4th time already this season that Detroit is facing Tomlin. Familiarity with a pitcher generally leads to success and Tomlin allowed 3 Tigers homers when he faced them less than 2 weeks ago and he gave up 9 hits in 6 innings in his prior start against Detroit (in May). Fullmer got hammered by the Indians at Cleveland in early May as they got to him for 5 earned runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. The over is 25-13 this season in Tigers games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 19-11 in Detroit's day games this season and 29-14 in Tigers games against teams with a winning record this year. The over is 23-13 in Cleveland's home games this season including 12-6 in Indians home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this year. *8* OVER 8.5 in Cleveland |
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07-05-16 | Yankees v. White Sox +115 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line +115 vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - With the Yankees 8-2 loss yesterday to the White Sox, the Yanks have now lost 6 of their last 9 games. The ChiSox have been heading the other direction as they have won 10 of their last 14 after yesterday's blowout win. Still this is a bit of a revenge spot for the White Sox as they face Masahiro Tanaka whose team has defeated the ChiSox both times in his career starts against them. The most recent was earlier this season and that was a 7-5 Yankees win despite Tanaka allowed 4 earned runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in only 5 innings of work. As you can see, he and the Yanks were quite fortunate in that one and I don't see them being so fortunate tonight. Tanaka comes into this start having allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. Also, he'll be opposed by a southpaw tonight and left-handers have given the Yankees trouble this season. Carlos Rodon gets the start for the White Sox and he held the Yanks to just 2 earned runs in 6 innings when he faced them in late September. This season the Yankees are just 10-16 against southpaw starters and 11-17 in their games against teams with a winning record. Against left-handed pitching this season, the Yankees rank at or near the bottom of the AL in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage! I expect the Yanks to drop to 22-40 in their last 62 Tuesday games! As for the ChiSox, look for them to improve on a 33-23 (+16.4 net!) in July games the past three seasons. Rodon was rolling great until he ran into trouble in the 6th inning against Minnesota in his most recent start and, prior to that outing, he had given up 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. He should dominate here. *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-05-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 8 in New York Mets vs Miami @ 7:10 ET - The Mets won 8-6 yesterday and have now won 5 straight and have averaged scoring 8 runs per game during this hot streak. This season, when the Mets enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more, the over is 10-2. Also, that recorded is no fluke as the last three seasons combined the Mets are 41-22 to the over when they enter a game having won 3 or more consecutive games. The Marlins, as a road dog of +125 to +175 are 8-3 to the over this season and 48-33 to the over the last three seasons combined. Overall Miami has been an "over machine" on the road this season with a 27-14 mark to the over so far this year. This is a battle of southpaws tonight and the Marlins rank 4th in the NL for batting average versus lefties. The Mets rank in the top half of the NL for slugging percentage against left-handers. The Marlins are hitting .291 on the road this season which is tops out of all 30 MLB teams. The Mets 55 homers in home games ties them for 4th out of all 30 teams. Look for plenty of offense tonight as the Marlins Wei-Yin Chen has a 7.37 ERA in his last 3 starts and also the over is 5-2 in his road starts this season. The Mets Steven Matz has a 6.32 ERA in his last 3 starts and has given up 16 hits in the less than 10 innings of work spanning his last 2 starts. Matz has an 11.57 ERA in his two career starts against the Marlins. *8* OVER 8 in New York Mets |
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07-05-16 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia vs Atlanta @ 7:05 ET - With yesterday's 8-2 Phillies victory, the Braves have now gone 6-2 to the over in their last 8 games and Philadelphia is now 22-10 to the over since June 1st. Earlier this season it was the Phillies pitching staff that was a key in their surprising solid start to the season. Then, after a slump followed the hot start, it is now the Phillies lineup that is leading the resurgence. Philadelphia has averaged 6 runs per game in their last 13 games and they have won 8 of their last 11 games! The Phillies Zach Eflin gets the start today and the over is 3-1 in his 4 starts so far. His first start, his MLB debut, looks like the ugliest outing he's had but though his stats indicate he may have recovered a bit from that he truly hasn't. Eflin gave up 4 runs (3 earned) to the Diamondbacks in his most recent start. In his prior start, at San Francisco, the numbers look okay but he gave up a ton of line drives in that game and was just fortunate that many were caught for outs. Eflin doesn't get many strikeouts and contact at Citizens Bank Park can be a problem. He'll be opposed by Mike Foltynewicz and he only went 3 innings in his return from the disabled list as his start was shortened due to rain. He was not overly impressive in that outing and he certainly wasn't overly impressive in his lone career start against the Phils which was last season as he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings. That game went over the total and Atlanta is 17-9 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 46-31 to the over the past three seasons in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. *10* OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia |
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07-05-16 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 9 | 9-5 | Win | 105 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 9 in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati @ 2:20 ET - Though not a strong wind, what wind there will be at Wrigley Field this afternoon will be blowing out toward center. That adds a lot of value here because both of these pitchers have been prone to giving up homers. The Reds Brandon Finnegan has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts and that has been part of the problem that led to a 9.64 ERA in those 3 outings. The Cubs John Lackey has also given up 4 homers in his last three outings and that has helped lead to a winless stretch and a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts. The Cubs rolled 10-4 yesterday and they have had just 1 under in their last 11 games! The Reds were on the wrong end of the scoreboard in that 10-4 game yesterday and they have had just 1 under in their last 8 games! The over is 20-8 in Reds games against divisional opponents this season. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 this season when Cincy is a road dog in a range of +200 to +225 as they are here. In Cincy road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 8-3 the past three seasons! The over is 38-21 in Reds games against right-handed starters this season. The Cubs have played 39 day games this season and only 1/3 of them have stayed under the total! Just 13 unders in 39 day games for the Cubbies and this one has the makings of a wild one as both these starters also got rocked when they last faced today's opponent in a series in Cincinnati in late April. More of the same today! *8* OVER 9 in Chicago Cubs game |
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07-04-16 | Orioles +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles +140 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:10 ET - The Orioles are looking to avenge a series sweep at the hands of the Mariners in Seattle and that means revenge will have to be served against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Based on the pitching match-up tonight, I believe the O's have a great shot at getting right back on track. Baltimore's Yovani Gallardo has been a different pitcher (in a good way) since returning from the disabled list. The Orioles are a perfect 3-0 in the 3 starts he's made since coming back from the DL and Gallardo has given up 3 earned runs or less in every single start. In his last two starts against the Dodgers Gallardo has given up just 1 earned run only 10 hits in 15 innings of work! The Dodgers come into this game off of a series sweep of the Rockies but Los Angeles is only playing about .500 ball in inter-league action and the past three seasons combined and this has netted -5.5 net games. As for the Orioles, they are 3-1 this season and 27-17 the last three seasons combined in inter-league action. The O's are also 35-23 this season (and 162-116 the las three seasons combined) in night games. Julio Urias gets the start for the Dodgers and he walked 6 batters in his most recent outing. Prior to that start, Urias had allowed 31 hits in the 27 innings spanning his first 6 starts this season. Now having issues with command of his pitches, Urias has been quite hittable at the MLB level and the young left-hander has been fortunate he has been able to maintain a low ERA. The Dodgers have won four straight games and only ONCE this ENTIRE season has LA had a winning streak go beyond four games. The Orioles have lost four straight games but NEVER this entire season have the O's lost more than 4 in a row. It's bounce back time for the sizable road dog (value!) here and I am happy to go against a 19 year old southpaw who has been hit at a .284 clip by right-handed lumber at the MLB level. *10* BALTIMORE |
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07-04-16 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Miami @ 4:10 ET - The Marlins are off of a 5-2 win over the Braves in a game played at Fort Bragg, NC Sunday night as part of the special festivities surrounding the July 4th weekend. Miami could have scored much more than the 5 runs they pushed across the plate in that game as the Marlins ended up stranding 10 baserunners in that game. Miami has averaged 5 runs per game in their last 9 games and the over is 8-1 in these games. The Marlins should have no trouble with the offerings of the Mets Matt Harvery as he is struggling right now. Though his last start was cut short by rain, it is not as if Harvey was enjoying success in that start anyway. The Mets right-hander walked 3 and gave up 4 hits in less than 4 innings of work in the rain-shortened outing. Prior to the start against the Nats, Harvey had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 8 starts. He's given up 19 hits in the 15 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. He won't be the only starter struggling this afternoon. Tom Koehler gets the start for the Marlins and he has given up 9 earned runs on 15 hits in his last 9 innings of work. Now he takes on a Mets team that exploded for 14 runs yesterday afternoon and will be stepping to the plate with plenty of confidence this afternoon. Each of Koehler's last three starts against the Mets have gone over the total. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the over is 5-1 in Marlins games this season. The Mets lineup is likely to stay red hot after their 4-game sweep of the Cubs that saw New York average 8 runs per game. Low total here and considering the overall mediocre recent results of these two starting pitchers, I am happy to take advantage of the low number here. *10* OVER in New York Mets |
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07-04-16 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 10.5 runs in Boston vs Texas @ 1:35 ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out toward right-center at Fenway Park this afternoon. Though Boston's Rick Porcello has great numbers on the year (and is undefeated at home) he has started to show some signs of a downturn in recent outings at Fenway. Porcello has given up 16 hits in the 11 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 2 home starts. He was somewhat fortunate that the damage wasn't worse than the 6 combined earned runs he allowed in those two outings. Porcello now faces Texas and he is only 4-4 with a 5.68 ERA in his career starts against the Rangers. Texas really hammered him the last time Porcello hosted them. That was when he was the Tigers in 2014 and Porcello gave up 8 earned runs on 12 hits (including 2 homers) in 5 and 1/3 innings. Look for another rough outing for him this afternoon as the Rangers have been doing a solid job at the plate and have recorded only 3 unders in their last 12 games. The problem for Texas today is going to be their own pitching! Nick Martinez gets the start for Texas and, as I mentioned in previous write-ups about him, he wasn't even having success at the AAA level in the minors this season (opponents hitting .292 against him) so it's no surprise that he's also struggling at the MLB level. Martinez has twice as many walks as strikeouts in his 3 starts since returning to the bigs and his 1.63 WHIP is certainly a concern. Boston just saw him less than 2 weeks ago and he gave up 4 earned runs in that 6-inning start. A rematch with him at Fenway is likely to result in an even uglier stat-line for Martinez. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Boston's last 12 games. Also, the Red Sox are 36-24 to the over against right-handed starters this season and 5-1 to the over as a home fave of -150 to -175 this year. The Rangers are 4-1 to the over the last 5 times they've been on the road with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. The big number on this afternoon's game is absolutely justified. This should be a slugfest! *8* OVER 10.5 in Boston |
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07-04-16 | Brewers v. Nationals UNDER 7 | 1-0 | Win | 105 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* UNDER 7 runs in Washington vs Milwaukee @ 11:05 AM ET - If we can hold off the rain here, we should be able to cash in a nice ticket here in a game that should move along at a good pace with two pitchers "on top of their game" right now. Early forecasts show that the most significant rains should be moving into the DC area by mid-afternoon but with the extra early start time (11 AM ET) for this 4th of July game, these teams may able to wrap things up before having a rain delay or cancellation. Washington's Max Scherzer continues to pile up the strikeouts as he has struck out 58 in his last 41 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 6 starts! In 5 of the 6 starts he reached double digits in strikeouts and he held opponents to 2 earned runs or less in 5 of the 6 starts. The lone exception was a start at Milwaukee late last month. He did strike out 10 Brewers but gave up 5 earned runs as he did give up two homers in that start. That was his only loss during this 6 start stretch so he'll be out for a little revenge today and he's compiled a stellar 2.62 ERA in his 18 day game starts since he came to Washington. As for the Brewers Junior Guerra, his splitter has been a key of late as it is breaking late in the strike zone and giving the opposition fits. Guerra has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs on just 7 hits while striking out 15 in the 15 innings spanning his last two starts. The under is 7-2 in Guerra's last 9 starts and the Brewers had scored a total of only 2 runs in their last 3 games before they finally had a big day at the plate yesterday at St Louis. Look for their run-scoring woes to resume today against a very tough pitcher. As for the Nationals, they had been held to 4 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games before their offense erupted in yesterday's big win over the Reds. Just like the Brewers, I look for a return to run-scoring woes for the Nats this afternoon against a pitcher who is really throwing well right now. Guerra has never faced Washington so that is an edge for the pitcher as the lineup doesn't have an experience edge against him. As for Scherzer he has struck out 26 while allowing only 6 hits in 15 innings against the Brewers in his last two starts versus Milwaukee. Look for a pitchers duel here. *8* UNDER 7 in Washington |
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07-03-16 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB ESPN CRUSHER *8* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta vs Miami @ 8:05 ET - With the Marlins 9-1 loss at Atlanta yesterday, the over is now a perfect 8-0 in Miami's last 8 games. Tonight's game will take place at Fort Bragg in North Carolina and is quite the event as this special 4th of July holiday weekend includes a unique game in a very unique venue that I expect to prove to be a very hitter-friendly park! Taking a look at tonight's pitching match-up, the over is 6-3 in Adam Conley's 9 road starts for the Marlins this season. He has struggled in 4 straight road outings with 16 runs (15 earned) given up on 29 hits in only 20 and 1/3 innings of work. That equates to a 6.64 ERA for Conley in his last 4 starts away from home and he's facing a Braves team that has scored 22 runs on 34 hits so far in this series. The Marlins got to the Braves Matt Wisler in his only career start against them. That outing was last season and Miami had 9 hits and scored 5 runs (all earned) against Wisler in 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The over is 6-2 in the Braves right-hander's last 8 starts. In Atlanta games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the over is 16-8 this season. The over is 26-17 in Miami games this year when they are up against teams with a losing record. *8* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta |
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07-03-16 | Pirates v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB 1st Half TOTAL OF THE YEAR *10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Pittsburgh @ 4:05 ET - Make no mistake, Daniel Mengden has pitched surprisingly well for Oakland since his call-up from the minors. However, he does not have overpowering stuff and I expect him to struggle against the red-hot Pirates this afternoon. With their 4-2 win yesterday, Pittsburgh is 6-2 in their last 8 games and has averaged 5.4 runs per game during this stretch. Oakland also has been swinging the bats well. Prior to being held to 2 runs yesterday, the Athletics had averaged 6.9 runs per game in their last 9 games. Oakland should certainly bounce back against the Pirates Francisco Liriano today. Not only has the Pirates southpaw been struggling, the A's rank 8th out of all 30 MLB teams for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. This has played a big role in the over being 14-4 in Oakland's games against southpaw starters this season! Liriano is 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA in his 7 road starts this season. The Pirates lefty has been issuing too many walks and is having trouble with location of his pitches in the strike zone. This has played a key role in Liriano allowing at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Pittsburgh southpaw has walked 29 in the 36 innings spanning his last 7 starts. The over is 21-10 this season in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh's interleague games are 10-4 to the over this season and day games have gone 17-9 to the over. The over is 37-23 in Pirates games against right-handed starters and the over is 19-6 in their games against teams with a losing record. The A's pound Liriano as they look to avoid the sweep but I also expect Mengden (0-3 in day games) to come back to reality after pitching "over his head" so far at the big league level. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-03-16 | White Sox +139 v. Astros | Top | 4-1 | Win | 139 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox +135 @ Houston @ 2:10 ET - The Astros struggles against left-handed pitching this season continued yesterday. They did get a little more off of Chris Sale than expected but still the fact that Houston had only 6 hits while striking out 9 times in 7 innings tells you what you need to know. The Astros continue to labor against southpaws with the lowest batting average (.231) among AL teams when facing left-handed pitching. That is 14 points lower than any other American League team. This afternoon the Astros will face Jose Quintana who has a much lower ERA and much lower WHIP on the season than his counterpart, Houston's Collin McHugh, in this one. Quintana's team is 5-1 in his 6 career starts against the Astros but that lone loss occurred in the lefty's last visit to Houston even though Quintana gave up only 1 earned run 6 and 1/3 innings as he was outdueled by Dallas Keuchel. The ChiSox southpaw has a 2.78 ERA in his career starts against the Astros and allowed just 1 earned runs in both of his starts versus Houston last season. McHugh is winless in his two career starts against the White Sox. The Astros right-hander has been hit at a .301 clip in his home starts this season and Houston has been fortunate to go 6-2 in his 8 home starts this season as McHugh has struggled more often than not in those home outings. I look for the Astros to drop to 9-15 against left-handers this season with another loss today. The value is with the road dog in this one. *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-03-16 | Tigers v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay vs Detroit @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's 3-2 Tigers win stayed under the total but it brought Detroit to 9-3 their last 12 games. The Tigers have averaged 5.8 runs per game during this hot streak and their bats should resume the hot hitting today. The problem for Detroit is they have Mike Pelfrey on the mound. The veteran right-hander is 2-7 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.81 WHIP on the season. Amazingly, the Tigers have won each of Pelfrey's last two starts even though he's given up 24 hits in just 10 and 1/3 innings spanning those two starts. As you can see, he's been in incredibly hittable and I look for that to continue this afternoon as Pelfrey is winless with a 5.63 ERA in his three career starts against Tampa Bay. The Rays will have Chris Archer on the mound and he has not been himself lately. Archer has had trouble with command of his pitches and this has frequently led to too many walks and too many big hits. That's why he has allowed at least 3 earned runs per start in 7 of his last 8 starts. That ugly stretch all began with Archer's tough outing at Detroit when the Tigers got to him for 6 earned runs in only 3 innings of work. I expect more of the same today. The over is 24-12 in Detroit games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is also 19-10 in Tigers day games and 36-19 in their games against right-handed starters this year. Both Detroit and the Rays were 6-1 to the over their last 7 games before yesterday's 3-2 battle stayed under. Look for both lineups to resume the hot hitting this afternoon. *8* OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay |
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07-02-16 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Over Easy *8* OVER 8.5 in Washington vs Cincinnati @ 7:15 ET - These teams went into extra innings yesterday and used up some bullpen arms. That could certainly become an issue today because the Reds Daniel Straily has tallied a total of only 14 innings in his last 3 starts and that means the Cincy bullpen could be called upon early in this one and the Reds have had one of the worst bullpens in MLB this season. Straily has a 10.93 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his last three starts. Also, the over is 7-2 in his last 9 games. He'll be opposed by Joe Ross who has given up 17 hits in his last 12 and 1/3 innings. Sure the Nats right-hander has impressive full-season numbers but he's been very hittable of late and the Reds trend of overs should resume after a rare low-scoring match-up yesterday. The over is 8-2 in Nationals Saturday games this season. Also, the over is 18-10 in Reds games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Overall, the over is 22-13 in Cincinnati road games this season. I expect the over to improve to 4-1, 80% this season when Washington is a home favorite in a range of -200 to -225. The Nationals should absolutely pound Straily in this one. *8* OVER 8.5 in Washington |
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07-02-16 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 21-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Slugfest *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game between these clubs was unbelievable. The teams combined for 28 hits but yet scored only 9 runs. It was one of the worst beats on an over that I have seen in a long time. We should get redemption today by coming right back with the same selection as the pitching match-up is conducive to an over and both teams are swinging the bats well as evidenced yesterday. The Angels will have Hector Santiago and he has struggled in most of his starts since late April. The Los Angeles southpaw has had only 3 quality starts out of his 12 starts dating back to April 29th. The over is 9-2 in Santiago's last 11 starts and he has a 6.48 ERA in his last 12 starts. He gave up 6 earned runs versus Oakland last week and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings the last time he faced the Red Sox. Boston will have Clay Buchholz on the mound this evening and he gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he faced the Angels. Also, like Santiago, he has struggled for much of this season. He allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start and that was the 8th time in 12 starts this season that Buchholz has allowed 4 earned runs or more. Buchholz again had command issues with his pitches in his start last week versus the Rangers. The over is 8-2 in Red Sox Saturday games this season. When Boston is a home fave of -150 to -175 this season the over has hit 80% of the time. The Angels loss yesterday was their fourth straight and they are 24-12 to the over the past three seasons combined when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. *10* OVER 10 in Boston |
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07-02-16 | Royals v. Phillies OVER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Philly Insider *8* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Philadelphia vs Kansas City @ 5:50 ET - When the Phillies wrapped up their recent road trip with 3 straight wins they were coming home with some significant momentum. They kept the roll going with a 4-3 win yesterday that stayed just under the total. I feel that is giving us great value with the over here and the fact this total has dropped to a 7.5 is giving even more value. The Phillies have now won four straight games and 6 of their last 8. Also, Philadelphia has been swinging the bats very well for the past 10 games as they have averaged 6.1 runs per game! They have not scored less than 3 runs in any of those 10 games and they'll scratch at least that against Danny Duffy of the Royals. The KC southpaw is off of a solid start but previously allowed at least 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Kansas City left-hander completed less than 6 innings in 3 of those 4 outings. The other key to this play is the Royals having a big day at the plate after scoring just 3 runs last night. That should be no problem as they'll tee off against Aaron Nola who has struggled mightily over his last 4 starts. The Phillies right-hander has allowed a ridiculous 22 earned runs in the 13 innings that have spanned his last 4 starts. The over is 7-1 in Nola's last 8 starts and there have not been any unders in Duffy's last 3 starts. *8* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Philadelphia |
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07-02-16 | White Sox +100 v. Astros | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line -105 @ Houston @ 4:10 ET - The Astros have been red hot and they got the 5-0 win yesterday but they face their "kryptonite" this afternoon as they face a southpaw starter. Houston, among American League teams, has the worst batting average (.231) against left-handed starters this year. The Astros aren't just facing "any" lefty either as they take on Chris Sale today. The White Sox southpaw is "on top of his game" right now as he has gone 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is also 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA in road starts this season. Sale is 4-1 with a 0.66 ERA in his 5 career starts against Houston and I fully expect the Astros to drop to 9-14 this season in their games against left-handed starters. Houston will have Doug Fister on the mound and he has given up 17 hits in his last 12 and 1/3 innings against the White Sox. By comparison, Sale has allowed just 13 hits in his last 25 innings against the Astros! The ChiSox lefty also has struck out 35 in those 25 innings! Simply phenomenal numbers. Look for the White Sox to bounce back from yesterday's shutout loss and improve to 14-3 in games started by Sale this season. The only 3 times that the White Sox have been shutout this season they've responded with a win every time. 3-0 with 20 runs scored in those 3 games when off of a shutout loss. Look for them to make it 4-0 today! *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-02-16 | Rangers v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 5-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash *8* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota vs Texas @ 2:10 ET - Chi Chi Gonzalez gets the start for the Rangers and he had a 6.03 ERA from July onward last season. This season he has made one start since being called up from the minors and he got rocked for 5 earned runs on 10 hits in 5 innings of work against the Yankees last week. In the minors this season he was 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA and Gonzalez was getting hit at a .285 clip. Last season in the minors he got hit at a .280 clip. Getting out major league hitters is even tougher than AAA hitters! The Twins will counter with Tyler Duffey who is off of a strong start but whom previously gave up 36 earned runs in his last 35 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 7 starts. He was consistently bad too as he allowed at least 4 earned runs in every start and Duffey gave up at least 5 earned runs in 5 of the 7 starts. In other words, don't put too much weight into the one good start he just had because it was preceded by 7 straight bad ones. By the way, NONE of those 7 starts stayed under the total! The over is 28-12 (70%) this season in Twins home games and that is even after a rare low-scoring 3-2 loss in Minnesota last night. This afternoon, the Twins bats and Rangers bats quickly come back to life as they take on subpar pitching! *8* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota |
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07-01-16 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs LA Angels @ 7:10 ET - Both of these clubs were off on Thursday. The Red Sox are off of a shutout loss on Wednesday at Tampa Bay. That is only the 3rd time this season that Boston has been shutout. After each of the first two, the BoSox next game resulted in an over. I expect another one here. The Red Sox should pound Jhoulys Chacin. The Angels right-hander was somewhat rejuvenated after arriving to the Angels from the Braves earlier this season. However, Chacin has certainly quickly reverted to his old form and that has seen him get pounded. In his last three starts Chacin has a 10.03 ERA and a 2.49 WHIP. None of his last 5 starts have resulted in unders and the Angels righty has given up 21 earned runs in the 22 innings spanning these 5 outings. Chacin has given up 9 earned runs on 15 hits in his last 9 innings against the Red Sox. Boston will have Steven Wright on the mound this evening and the knuckleballer certainly has put up some strong numbers this season. However, he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings when he most recently faced the Angels and that was last July. Wright is coming off of a tough start at Texas where the Rangers got to him for 8 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits and a pair of walks in less than 5 innings of work. The Angels have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 games and are averaging 10.6 hits per game in their last 8 games. The Red Sox were averaging 10.3 hits per game in their last 7 games before the ultra rare shutout at Tampa Bay Wednesday. The BoSox bounce back at home today and the Angels sticks stay hot and pound out double digits in hits yet again. The over is 11-5 the past three seasons when the Angels are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The over is 24-11 the last three seasons when the Angels enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The over is 35-23 in Boston's games against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The over is 26-15 in Red Sox games against teams with a losing record this season. *10* OVER 10 in Boston |
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07-01-16 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Washington vs Cincinnati @ 6:05 ET - Washington laid a 13-4 beating on the Reds yesterday and there is no reason the high-scoring ways should not continue this evening. The Nationals will have Tanner Roark on the mound and he allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits in just 3 innings of work when he faced the Reds about 4 weeks ago. In his prior start against Cincinnati he gave up 2 homers to the Reds. Roark comes into this start with some impressive numbers on the season but he has given up 33 hits in his last 30 and 1/3 innings and I feel "the fade" is on for the Nats right-hander. Roark is off of a strong start at Milwaukee but previously allowed 12 earned runs in his 23 prior innings. Anthony DeSclafani gets the start for the Reds Friday and he has a low ERA in his limited action as a starter so far this season. However, he has been fortunate as he has a 1.55 WHIP in his two road starts and is fortunate the damage against him (in terms of earned runs) has not been worse. Neither of his road starts stayed under the total and I don't expect this one to either. The Nationals have won 5 straight games and averaged 7.2 runs per game. Yesterday was the 8th time in their last 13 games that the Reds have scored at least 4 runs. There have only been 2 unders in Cincinnati's last 10 games. In Reds games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season the over is 18-9. The over is 22-12 in Cincy's road games this season. This is the Nationals 12th Friday game this season. So far they have had just 2 unders in their Friday games! Look for another "power surge" in DC this evening. *8* OVER 8.5 in Washington |
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07-01-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Toronto vs Cleveland @ 1:05 ET - The Indians got the win at Toronto yesterday in a low-scoring 4-1 battle. Cleveland has now won 13 straight games and they have averaged 6.2 runs per game during this torrid hot streak. While I expect their lineup to continue to produce big runs today, I also expect the Blue Jays lineup to get back on track and that is why the play here is the over. The Jays, even after scoring only 1 run in yesterday's game, have averaged 6.6 runs per game in their last 18 games. Toronto could get the long ball going again today as the Indians Josh Tomlin has given up 8 homers in his last 4 starts! Tomlin gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start at Toronto. The Blue Jays will have Marcus Stroman on the mound and he is struggling of late. In his last two starts Stroman has given up 11 earned runs in less than 9 innings of work! Also, he's been homer-prone as well with 6 dingers allowed in his last 6 games. The over is 6-2 in Stroman's home starts this season and the over is 10-2 in all of Tomlin's starts this season. Of Cleveland's 12 Friday games so far this season only 4 have resulted in an under. This total opened up at an 8.5 and the Blue Jays are 12-7 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Even with the line moving to 9, there is great value with the over here as both teams have so much power in their lineups and both hurlers have been giving up too many round-trippers and, overall, far too many big hits! *8* OVER 9 in Toronto |
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06-30-16 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - A pair of solid hurlers with overall good numbers on the year is keeping this total lower than it would otherwise be given the following facts. The Cubs John Lackey has a 6.61 ERA in his last three start and the Mets Steven Matz also has a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. Lackey has given up three homers in his last two starts and the wind is expected to be blowing out at Citi Field tonight. Though it is generally a pitcher-friendly venue, Citi Field will be a little friendlier than usual to the hitters tonight. Lackey particularly struggled at Miami in his most recent start and I look for him to again get hit hard here. The Mets Matz has allowed 22 hits in his last 3 starts spanning 16 and 1/3 innings. He also has given up a homer in each of his last two starts and did not record a single strikeout in his most recent outing. That is always an alarming stat as it shows that hitters aren't having any trouble seeing (and making contact with) his pitchers. The over is 4-2 in Matz's home starts this season and 2 of Lackey's last 3 road starts have gone over the total. The Cubs have not had a single under in any of their last 6 games. The Cubbies bats have been rejuvenated on this road trip as they averaged 9 runs per game at Cincy and have scored at least 5 runs in 5 of their last 6 games. In their 41 road games this season, the Cubs have had just 15 unders. In their 41 Thursday the games the past three seasons it has also been only 15 unders for the Cubs. Look for this one to easily get over the low total as the normally low-scoring Mets take advantage of catching Lackey at the right time while the Cubs also stay hot at the plate. *10* OVER in New York Mets |
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06-30-16 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota @ 2:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 15 runs and the White Sox red hot sticks are averaging nearly 6 runs per game over their last 7 games. The Twins are also functioning in the same range at the plate as they come into this afternoon game Thursday having averaged 5.7 runs per game in their last 10 games. With these two hurlers on the mound we certainly should not see a slowdown Thursday. Tommy Milone gets the start for the Twins and he had major issues with command of his pitches in his start last week. This was his first start since returning from AAA ball and in his last 3 starts at the MLB level he has compiled a 1.85 WHIP and is fortunate his ERA is not higher than it is. He'll be opposed by fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon of the White Sox. Though Rodon has some decent numbers this season he has also been "flirting with disaster" in many of his recent starts as he's been way too hittable. Rodon is getting hit at a .291 clip over his last 7 starts. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the over is 9-2 in Minnesota games this season. With yesterday's over, Minny is now 19-6 to the over in June games. Also, the over is now 21-9 this year in Twins games against teams with playing .500 ball or worse on the season. Look for more of the same this afternoon. *8* OVER 9 in Chicago White Sox |
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06-30-16 | Dodgers -127 v. Brewers | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line -127 @ Milwaukee @ 2:10 ET - The Dodgers got embarrassed in yesterday's 7-0 loss and I look for them to make up for that today. Los Angeles has gone 14-6 the past three seasons when they are off a defeat where they were held scoreless. The Dodgers had won 8 of their last 11 games before yesterday's ugly loss. The Brewers are 4-14 the past three seasons when they are off of a shutout win. Also, prior to yesterday's 7-0 victory, Milwaukee had lost 6 of their last 9 games. Zach Davies gets the start for the Brewers today and he has been throwing very well. However, he allowed 3 earned runs on 7 hits in only 5 innings in his most recent start and, based on his long-term history, he certainly is due for the "correction" many in the baseball world are expecting. In other words, Davies can't keep going as strong as he was going. The Dodgers will have Kenta Maeda on the mound and the Dodgers right-hander is off of a rare, tough start even though he allowed only 4 hits. Look for him to quickly resume his solid form which had seen him allow a total of only 5 earned runs in his 5 prior starts! Even with yesterday's win the Brewers are still just 12-20 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. As for the Dodgers, they are 12-6 in day games this season and 7-3 this year in road games where they are favored in the -125 to -150. That makes them well worth the short price here. *8* LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-29-16 | Rangers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Texas @ 7:05 ET - With their 7-1 win yesterday, the Rangers are now 13-3 in their last 16 games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Yankees have cooled off a bit at the plate recently but are still averaging 10 hits per game in their last 10 games. Facing the Rangers Nick Martinez Wednesday should bring the Yanks bats right back to life after scoring just a single run yesterday. Martinez has struggled in both of his starts this month since moving into the rotation. He has more walks than strikeouts and also gave up 2 homers in his most recent start. Martinez has given up 8 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Yankees. The Yanks got to him for 3 homers in those two outings. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for the Yankees in this one. He allowed 4 earned runs on 9 hits and 3 walks (for a 2.00 WHIP) in the 6 innings he logged against the Rangers in his only career start against them. Tanaka comes into this home start having allowed 8 earned runs in the 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two home starts. In fact, Tanaka has a 5.74 ERA in his last 5 home starts so he's certainly been far from dominant at Yankee Stadium. The Rangers have recently had a lot of unders but that has had a lot to do with getting solid pitching. With Martinez on the mound tonight, that is unlikely to be the case and the Rangers sticks will remain hot as well. In other words, perfect ingredients for an over. The Yankees have had just 2 unders in their last 10 games. Prior to yesterday's defeat, the Yanks had averaged 5 runs per game in going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Look for the Yankees offense to get right back on track tonight. *10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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06-29-16 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston @ 3:35 ET - With yesterday's 7-1 win, the Astros have now won 9 of their last 10 games and they've averaged 6.5 runs per game during this hot streak. I don't see Jered Weaver being able to slow down the Astros red hot sticks. The veteran right-hander was long-known for excelling in his home starts but, after another rough effort Friday, Weaver has given up 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 home starts. Not surprisingly, the over is 5-2 in Weaver's last 7 starts. Weaver has allowed 9 earned runs in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts against Houston. Weaver also has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts against the Astros. He will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel this afternoon. The southpaw has certainly been the victim of some bad breaks in some of his starts this season but there is no denying he was way too "hittable" in his most recent start as the Royals got to him for 4 earned runs on 11 hits in his 6 innings of work. The left-hander allowed 2 homers in that start and also allowed 2 homers in his most recent outing against the Angels in late May. Keuchel dominated at home last season but was not so dominant on the road last year. This season, he's been far from dominant away from home as Keuchel has a 5.89 ERA in road games in 2016. The fact he only had 2 strike-outs at Kansas City in his most recent start is also cause for concern. The over is 17-8 (68%) the last 3 seasons in Astros road games where they are a fave of -125 to -150. The Houston hot hitting continues here but the Angels sticks will respond after producing just 2 runs yesterday and that means an afternoon slugfest can be expected here. *10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels |
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06-29-16 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay vs Boston @ 12:10 ET - David Price is off of a horrible outing for the Red Sox and would love nothing more to bounce back here. The problem for Price is that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time. Tampa Bay has given the Boston southpaw fits as Price has allowed 17 earned runs in less than 15 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Rays. All 3 of those starts have come within the past year so the Tampa sticks are certainly very familiar with his offerings. The Rays are in bounce back mode as they were held to just 2 runs yesterday and they should get back on track against a familiar foes as the Tampa Bay lumber had been hot. The Rays averaged 8 runs per game on 15 hits per game in their 3 prior games leading into last night's ugly 8-2 loss. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Tampa's last 4 games and 6-1 in Boston's last 7 games. Against southpaws, the over is 12-6 in Tampa Bay games this season. Price is unlikely to be the only lefty struggling this afternoon. Matt Moore gets the start for the Rays and he is 3-5 with a 6.41 ERA in his 8 career starts against the Red Sox. Also, Moore is coming off of a rough performance at Baltimore in his most recent start. Look for more of the same for the Rays southpaw as he now faces a potent Red Sox lineup that is heating up again with an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games. The over is 21-12 in Boston's road games this season and 26-14 in Red Sox games against teams with a losing record this year. *8* OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay |
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06-28-16 | Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Toronto @ 8:40 ET - As of early Tuesday morning it appears the wind will be switching around this evening. Even though when the first pitch is made in this game the wind may not be blowing out it is likely that it will end up blowing out for much of this game. That said, I see a lot of value with another over in the dry, thin air at Coors Field tonight. With last night's 9-5 win, the Rockies have now seen 7 straight games go over the total. There is no reason not to expect another one tonight. Colorado crushed the Blue Jays bullpen last night and let's not forget that the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season. That is bad news for Colorado tonight because their starter, Eddie Butler, is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. Butler has a 10.42 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in his home starts this season. The Rockies righty also has a 10.20 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Facing a Blue Jays lineup that has averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 12 games isn't going to help matters for Butler! The Rockies will be facing J.A Happ of the Blue Jays tonight. The southpaw faced Colorado twice in the last two months of last season so they have some familiarity with him even though this is an inter-league match-up. The red-hot Rockies have averaged 8 runs per game in going 5-3 in their last 8 games. The over is 3-1 in Butler's 4 home starts this season and the over is 7-1 in the Rockies 8 inter-league games this season. Look for yet another wild one at Coors Field tonight. *10* OVER 12 in Colorado |
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06-28-16 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota @ 8:10 ET - Both these clubs were off yesterday. The Twins are 7-2 to the over after an off day so far this season. The last 3 seasons combined, the White Sox are 29-17 to the over after an off day. Both lineups will be rested an ready to go for this one Tuesday. By the way, the ChiSox are 8-3 to the over on Tuesdays so far this season. Minnesota has been an "over machine" this season and are an incredible 31-10 to the over in night games this year. Like the White Sox, Tuesdays have been conducive to plenty of runs too, 9-1 to the over this season on Tuesdays for the Twins. Minnesota is 18-5 to the over in June and also 18-5 to the over when off of a win. The over is 11-6 this season in Twins games against left-handed starters. The ChiSox will have lefty Jose Quintana on the mound and he allowed 3 homers in his most recent home start. He followed that up by allowing 8 earned runs on 15 hits and 7 walks in the 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts. The southpaw won't be the only starting pitcher struggling this evening as right-hander Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Twins. Gibson is 0-5 in his 7 starts this season and he has a 12.37 ERA in his two road starts this season. Even in his three most recent starts, all at home, he's been roughed up to the tune of a 6.00 ERA! He's facing a White Sox team that is 5-2 in their last 7 games and has averaged 6.2 runs per game in their last 5 games. The Twins have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 8 games. *8* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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06-28-16 | Indians v. Braves OVER 7.5 | 5-3 | Win | 107 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Atlanta vs Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - On the surface this will look it might shape up to be a decent pitchers duel. Hence the low number posted on the total for this game. However, with each of these starting pitchers struggling a bit recently and with both clubs enjoying some recent solid success at the plate, the total is way too low and can be exploited here. The red-hot Indians come into this game having won 10 straight and have averaged 6.8 runs per game! They should have no trouble staying hot against the Braves Matt Wisler. The right-hander is 1-5 in home starts this season and he has a 5.19 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in his last 3 starts as he has been particularly hittable of late. Wisler also walked 4 while striking out just 1 in his most recent start. Even though the Indians Corey Kluber has a great reputation, he gave up 8 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent road start. Though he shut out the Rays in his most recent start (at home), he had allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his 8 prior starts. Look for the Braves to give him some trouble here as Atlanta, prior to yesterday's defeat, had won 8 of their last 11 games and had scored 4 runs or more in 8 of the 11 games. The Atlanta bullpen has a 4.90 ERA at home this season. Tonight's game will be the 12th the Indians have had in inter-league action so far. Out of all this inter-league action Cleveland has had just 3 unders! *8* OVER 7.5 in Atlanta |
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06-28-16 | Marlins v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Detroit vs Miami @ 7:10 ET - Miami is 8-2 to the over this season (including 6-1 on the road) in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Marlins inter-league games have gone 7-2 to the over this year. The Tigers have gone 10-2 to the over in inter-league action so far this season. Also, Detroit enters this game on a 3-game losing streak and the over is 10-2 this season when the Tigers have lost 3 or more consecutive games. Detroit is 26-13 to the over this year in their games against teams with a winning record. Mike Pelfrey gets the start for the Tigers this evening and he has been getting hit hard and has a 7.17 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. 5 of those 7 Pelfrey starts in Detroit have gone over the total. Miami's Adam Conley has given up 32 hits in his last 22 innings away from home and I look for his road struggles to continue here as Detroit is hitting .278 at home this season which ranks them 6th out of the 30 MLB teams. Pelfrey is 1-9 with a 5.40 ERA in his career against the Marlins and Miami's Conley got absolutely crushed in his most recent road start with 6 runs (5 earned) on 11 hits in just 5 innings of work. Look for more of the same here. *8* OVER 9.5 in Detroit |
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06-27-16 | Blue Jays v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs Toronto @ 8:40 ET - Yesterday's Blue Jays game (at the White Sox) stayed under the total but the Jays had previously gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 road games. The Rockies game (versus Arizona) went over the total yesterday and that made it 6 straight overs in Colorado games. Now the Rockies are back into interleague action again and the over is 6-1 in their interleague games this season. Colorado will have Jon Gray on the mound and he walked 5 in just 4 innings in his most recent start. Gray allowed 4 earned runs in that outing and was diagnosed with a tired arm that forced him to exit early. Even though he's back on track for this start Monday, I do expect him to continue to show signs of fatigue. The Blue Jays hurler tonight also has an injury concern here as Marco Estrada has been having some discomfort in his back. Since he pitched in the National League for much of his career he's faced the Rockies a few times. He has allowed 11 earned runs on 19 hits (including 3 homers) in the less than 11 innings of work spanning his last two outings. Estrada comes into this start as the first pitcher ever to make 11 straight starts of 6+ innings with allowing 5 hits or less in each of the outings. Of course trying to keep that going at Coors Field is about the toughest test a hurler could have and I look for him to struggle again here (just like he did in his most recent start against the Rockies back in 2014). Though all 7 of his home starts have stayed under the total this season, Estrada's road starts have had mixed results in terms of the total while Gray's 5 home starts have yielded just 1 under. Look for the over to go to 22-13 in Rockies home games this season as the warm (and thin air) of Denver continues to lead to crazy slugfest results. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-27-16 | Red Sox -108 v. Rays | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -108 @ Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Though the Red Sox have been struggling a bit, no one in the majors is struggling as badly as the Rays right now. With their loss yesterday, it is now 11 straight defeats for Tampa Bay. Perhaps even more alarming than just the losing is the fact that all 11 defeats have come by a multiple run margin and, in fact, the 0-11 run features an average margin of defeat of 4 runs per game. I am expecting another blowout loss here and that is why this selection is a top play! Boston will have southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound and, though he was not overpowering, the lefty pitched well enough in both his starts against the Rays last season for the Red Sox to win both games. Rodriguez seems to have turned the corner after some recent struggles. He allowed only 4 hits in 6 innings while striking out 7 in his most recent start. He'll be opposed by Rays right-hander Blake Snell in this one. The Tampa Bay righty has only allowed a total of 3 earned runs in his two starts since returning to the rotation earlier this month. However, Snell has been fortunate (to say the least!) as he's given up 15 hits and 6 walks in 10 innings for an ugly 2.10 WHIP in these two outings. The Rays are winless in his 3 starts this season while the Red Sox are a perfect 2-0 in the road starts of Rodriguez this season. Look for the BoSox to improve to 7-2 this season when on the road in a game with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs while the Rays drop to 9-25 this year in their games against teams with a winning record! *10* BOSTON |
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06-27-16 | Dodgers v. Pirates +100 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line +100 vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 12:35 ET - Battle of southpaws early Monday afternoon and many will be looking at the Dodgers in this one as Los Angeles is trying to avoid a 4-game sweep. However, the bad news for Los Angeles is that they face a lefty today and the Dodgers are last in the majors (.226 batting average) versus left-handed pitching this season. The Pirates rank 4th in the NL with a .266 batting average versus southpaws. Also, with last night's win, the Pirates are on a 13-3 run (including 8-1 in Pittsburgh) in their recent match-ups with the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 3-10 this season in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Pittsburgh is 28-13 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Francisco Liriano gets the start for the Pirates and he is 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his career starts against the Dodgers. He has a solid 3.40 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. The Dodgers will hand the ball to left-hander Scott Kazmir for this early afternoon match-up. He has an 11.17 ERA in two career starts at Pittsburgh. He also has a 5.16 ERA on the road this season. Look for the Dodgers to drop to 3-7 in Monday games this season while the Pirates improve to 7-2 in Monday games. *8* PITTSBURGH |
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06-26-16 | Dodgers v. Pirates OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 6.5 in Pittsburgh vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - Of course the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball. But that is also why this total has dropped to a 6.5 as of early Sunday morning and that is helping to give us some great line value here with the over. The Pirates will have a number of hitters in their lineup tonight that have, surprisingly, enjoyed some success against Kershaw. This has played a role in the Dodgers ace left-hander allowing 7 earned runs on 16 hits in the 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Pirates. Both of those starts occurred late last season so it is not as if those stats are ancient history either. Pittsburgh will be seeing him for the 3rd time in a span of 11 months. Look for the Pirates to again enjoy some surprising success against Kershaw. Of course another key to this play tonight is that Pittsburgh will have Chad Kuhl on the mound making his MLB debut. Certainly Kuhl has some impressive stats in the minors this season but stepping up to the bigs is always a big step! Additionally, the right-hander has the added pressure of knowing he's up against the Dodgers ace, he's in front of home fans, and the ESPN cameras will be rolling as this game gets the call as the Sunday night game this week. Add it all up and it's a pressure packed situation for the 23 year old hurler. He's facing a Dodgers team that will be hungry to bounce back after being held to 1 run yesterday. The Dodgers, before yesterday's loss, had previously won 8 of their past 10 games and averaged a solid 4.8 runs per game in the process. The Pirates have averaged 5.4 runs per game in their last 5 games and the over is 25-14 in their home games this season. Kershaw's starts in Pittsburgh have a history of going over the total...and I firmly believe this one continues that trend! *8* OVER 6.5 in Pittsburgh |
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06-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 12.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 4:10 ET - Yes ,it is hitter friendly Coors Field and yes these teams have been piling up runs in their meetings this season. However, both of the hurlers today are capable of shutting down the opposition. Colorado is hitting 28 points less against lefties than righties this season and they'll be facing southpaw Patrick Corbin whose team has gone 9-2 in his 11 career starts against the Rockies. The last time Corbin pitched at Coors Field he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 and 1/3 innings on September 1st. As for Arizona, they are hitting 28 points less against righties than lefties and they'll be facing right-hander Chad Bettis who has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts while striking out 13 and walking just 1. He's in top form right now with walks down and strikeouts up. He'll have plenty of confidence for this afternoon match-up with the Diamondbacks and the wind most likely will be blowing in from right field in this one. 3 of Corbin's last 4 starts have stayed under the total. Also, the under is 4-1 in Corbin's divisional starts this season. Only 51 of Arizona's 123 day games the past 2+ seasons have gone over the total. Only 3 of the Rockies 10 Sunday games so far this season have resulted in an over. Yesterday's Rockies win was their 35th this season. So far this season Colorado has won just 13 games the 34 times they are off of a win. With a big total to work with here and a pair of starting pitchers likely to work deep into the game and have success, I expect a rather easy totals winner on the short side of this one. *10* UNDER 12.5 in Colorado |
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06-26-16 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in New York Yankees vs Minnesota @ 1:05 ET - Minnesota's Tyler Duffey has been incredibly consistent over the past 5 weeks but in a bad way! He's allowed at least 4 earned runs in 7 straight starts. Incredibly, Duffey has allowed an average of 1 earned run PER INNING over this rough stretch with a 9.17 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Yankees should pound the right-hander as their biggest struggles this season have been with southpaws not right-handers. The Yanks will have their own struggling righty on the mound as Nathan Eovaldi gets this start. He has given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 straight starts. Eovaldi's ERA over this this rough patch is a 9.00 so, like Duffey, the New York right-hander is also going through a ridiculous stretch where he is allowing an average of 1 earned run PER INNING! The over was 18-3 in Twins games this month before yesterday's surprising low-scoring result. Yesterday's under also ended a 6-game over streak in Yankees games. Look for the high-scoring ways to quickly resume for these clubs today based on a very favorable pitching match-up for tons of offense here. Overs are on a 6-0 run in Duffey starts and 4-0 run in Eovaldi starts. *8* OVER 9.5 in New York Yankees |
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06-25-16 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City vs Houston @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game got crazy right away in the top of the first inning. Error, infield hit, walk, grand slam...it basically had it all. While a repeat of such a huge first inning is unlikely here it absolutely should be another easy over on a warm night in Kansas City with the wind expected to be blowing out to left field at Kauffman Stadium. Though the Royals Chris Young has pitched better of late he is well known for having issues with the long ball and, before allowing just 1 in each of his last 2 starts, Young allowed 4 homers in an outing at Cleveland. The Astros are a power-hitting team and, as you would expect, that is the type of club that gives Young problems. The veteran righty has allowed 7 homers in his last 3 starts against Houston. Also, in Young's last two starts against the Astros he has given up 13 earned runs on 17 hits in the less than 8 innings of work spanning those two outings. He'll be opposed by Michael Fiers tonight. The Astros right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his two career starts against the Royals. Fiers has been solid at home for Houston this season but the Astros are 1-4 in his 5 road starts this season as he's been rocked for a 6.43 ERA away from home. 4 of those 5 Fiers road starts went over the total and the over is 6-2 in the Royals last 8 games after yesterday's easy over. When Houston is on the road and priced as a small fave of -100 to -125, the over is 8-3 this season. Look for the over to improve to 7-2 in the Royals last 9 games as KC also could get a boost with the return of Alex Gordon to the lineup today. Either way, yesterday's 25 hits is a sign of what should be expected throughout this weekend series. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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06-25-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 4:10 ET - Both bullpens got crushed in yesterday's game and that could be a significant factor today as neither one of these starting pitchers has been an "innings-eater" this season. The Diamondbacks Miller has averaged 4.8 innings per start while the Rockies De La Rosa has averaged 4.3 innings per start. Miller is off of a rare solid start for Arizona but he faced a floundering Phillies team. Prior to that effort, Miller had given up 22 earned runs in his last 31 innings. Colorado's De La Rosa has been pitching better of late since he returned to the rotation but he allowed 3 homers in his last start and that's certainly a bad sign that he's reverting to his old form of leaving too many pitches in the wrong part of the zone. That is part of what has led to his ugly 8.57 ERA on the season. Also, though the wind is not expected to be a huge factor one way or the other today, there is a chance it will be switching around and blowing out during this game with warm afternoon conditions favoring an over as well. All 4 of De La Rosa's home starts have gone over the total this season and Arizona leads the majors in slugging percentage (.492) against left-handed pitching. The over is 20-11 in Dbacks games against teams with a losing record this season. With last night's game crushing it for 19 runs, the over is 12-6 in Rockies home games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-25-16 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 9 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees vs Minnesota @ 1:05 ET - Yesterday's total ended up being a push but the Twins had a lefty on the mound and the Yankees have struggled with southpaws this season. Also, the Yanks had a tough righty on the mound as Tanaka went into yesterday's start having allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. Today's game offers a much different edge in terms of the pitching match-up and it spells O-V-E-R. The Yankees will enjoy facing a right-hander and Santana has a 5.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Santana has allowed 12 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work in his last two visits to the Bronx. New York also will have issues on the mound this afternoon as Pineda gets the start and he has allowed 8 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts versus Minnesota. The New York right-hander is 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA on the season. The over is 8-3 in Pineda's starts this season and 8-2 in Santana's last 10 starts. The over is an incredible 17-3 in Minnesota's games this month. The over is 34-17 in Twins games against right-handed starters this season. With yesterday's push, the over remains on a 5-0 run in Yankees games and they add to that "over streak" today. *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees |
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06-24-16 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Texas vs Boston @ 8:05 ET - The Red Sox had recently hit a lull with some surprisingly low-scoring games but yesterday's 8-7 win marked the 2nd straight "wild one" with the White Sox as the teams combined for 29 runs and 50 hits in the last 2 games of the series. Look for the Boston bats to stay hot as they head to Texas now. Even though David Price is on the mound for the BoSox tonight, another wild one should be expected. The Rangers have pounded left-handed pitching this season. Their .289 batting average against southpaws ranks them 1st in the majors. Price is 3-8 with a 5.14 ERA in his career outings against the Rangers so Texas certainly hasn't been one of his favorite places to visit. He's allowed at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 meetings with the Rangers. Texas is going to have a pitching concern of their own tonight as Nick Martinez certainly wasn't sharp against the Cardinals Saturday. The Rangers right-hander was unable to complete 5 innings as he allowed 8 baserunners in 4 and 1/3 innings while striking out just 1. He was fortunate the damage wasn't worse than the 3 earned runs he allowed. Last season Martinez had a 5.79 ERA and a .303 batting average against after the all star break and his first start shows he's carried those struggles right into this season. Even in the minors this season he was getting hit at a .292 clip. The over is 16-7 in Boston's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Included in that record is a 6-2 over mark when the Red Sox are on the road. The Rangers are 16-10 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-24-16 | Padres v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 13-4 | Win | 101 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati vs San Diego @ 7:10 ET - San Diego is hitting .277 against left-handed pitching this season and the Padres have scored 109 runs versus southpaws so far this year. That ranks SD #1 in the National League currently. With their 7-4 win yesterday, San Diego has now won 5 of their last 8 games and they've averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. I expect the Padres to enjoy success against Reds southpaw Cody Reed tonight. Though Reed struck out 9 at Houston in his MLB debut Saturday he did allow 4 earned runs in his 7 innings of work while giving up 2 homers. He now faces a lineup, unlike the Astros, that has thrived against left-handed pitching this season. Reed will be opposed by Colin Rea of the Padres. The San Diego right-hander is off of a strong start but previously gave up 9 earned runs in the less than 10 innings of work spanning his two prior outings. Overall, Rea has a 5.09 ERA on the season and the over is 9-4 in his starts this year. He's facing a Reds team that is 41-26 to the over this season and that has scored at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 10 games. Cincinnati has had a glaring weakness with its bullpen (6.01 ERA heading into yesterday's game) all season long and the over is 15-7 in Padres games against left-handed starters this season after they pounded out a win against another southpaw yesterday (John Lamb). *8* OVER in Cincinnati |
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06-24-16 | Rays +127 v. Orioles | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line +127 @ Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. Baltimore is hitting .237 against southpaws and, taking a look at all American League teams, only the Astros (.233) have fared worse against lefties. That said, I look for the O's to struggle to connect against Matt Moore in this one. The Rays southpaw is in excellent current form with just 2 earned runs given up on only 8 hits while striking out 15 in the 13 innings of work spanning his last two starts. In Moore's last two starts against Baltimore he has held them to 3 earned runs on only 5 hits while striking out 18 in the 14 innings of work spanning those two outings. While Moore should dominate the Orioles here, look for Baltimore starter Yovanni Gallardo to continue to struggle. He has a 6.26 ERA in his 5 starts this season. When he last faced Tampa Bay (August) he allowed only 3 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings but gave up 11 hits! As you can see, Gallardo was hit hard but was fortunate to escape without much damage being done. Tonight, look for some big-time damage as his frustrating season (spent significant time on disabled list) continues. The Rays have been on a losing streak but yesterday's day off did them some good and, with a huge edge on the mound tonight, they'll get back on track with a W here. I'll grab the significant underdog line value here. *10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-23-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies lost 9-8 in the Bronx yesterday but that marked the 9th time in their last 12 games that Colorado has scored at least 5 runs. The Diamondbacks are also off of a loss yesterday and were held to just 2 runs at Toronto but Arizona had previously won 5 straight games and averaged 5 runs per game during the hot streak. The Dbacks should certainly have no problems with the offerings of Colorado's Eddie Butler. The right-hander had made three appearances in June, including two starts. Butler has been rocked for 24 hits and he has also walked six in the 13 and 1/3 innings spanning these three games. In his 3 home starts this season (and the wind is likely to be blowing out tonight at hitter-friendly Coors Field), Butler has a 10.29 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Arizona's Zack Greinke tonight and that is what is helping to keep this total lower than it should be (given that it's Coors Field and should be hitter-friendly weather conditions). Greinke has impressive numbers this season and so certainly many may expect him to dominate here. However, Coors Field is a unique challenge for pitchers and Greinke is no exception. He allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits in 6 innings while striking out just 2 in his most recent visit here. Also, Greinke has faced the Rockies twice (both in Arizona) this season and he has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits (including 3 homers) in 11 innings of work. The Rockies hitters will be stepping up to the plate with confidence in this one and Colorado is hitting nearly .300 at home while averaging 6 runs per game. The over is 6-0 in Rockies Thursday games this season. The over is 18-11 in Diamondbacks games against teams with a losing record so far this season. *10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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06-23-16 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Miami vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins Wei-Yin Chen got rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work in his most recent start. That outing was against the Rockies and it was NOT at hitter-friendly Coors Field either. Chen's prior two starts saw him allow 7 home runs in his two outings prior to the debacle versus Colorado. The Marlins southpaw is simply in awful current form right now. Even though the Cubs have been scuffling a bit at the plate lately this is still one of the most dangerous lineups in the league and facing a struggling southpaw is likely to bring out the best in them. What is helping to keep this total lower than it should be (opened up at a 7.5) is the fact that Jon Lester is on the mound for the Cubs. However, the left-hander is off of a very fortunate start in his most recent outing as he allowed 11 base-runners (but only 3 runs) in his start against the Pirates. He now faces a Miami team that crushed him for 6 earned runs in 5 innings when they faced him last season. The over is 5-1 in Lester's road starts this season. Also, the over is on a 5-1 streak in Chen's starts. When the Cubs are a road favorite in a price range of -150 to -175 this season, the over has gone 7-1 (88%). Additionally, the over is 5-2 this season (and 25-14 the last 3 seasons) in Cubs Thursday games. The over is 45-33 in Marlins games against left-handed starters the past three seasons. Additionally, the over is 24-16 in Thursday games during this 3-year stretch. The Marlins rested Stanton and Prado in yesterday's early afternoon game but I expected those key sticks to be back in the lineup this evening. *10* OVER in Miami |
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06-23-16 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh vs San Francisco @ 12:35 ET - These teams have combined for 32 runs in the past two games. Both were easy overs. Now, in an afternoon game where a light wind will be blowing out as well, look for a slugfest in the finale. Pirates starter Jon Niese has given up 5 homers in his last two starts. Giants starter Albert Suarez is off of a start where he allowed 3 homers in less than 5 innings at Tampa Bay. In road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the over is 30-19 the past three years in Giants games. The over is 17-8 (68%) this season in San Francisco's day games. The Pirates are 17-6 to the over in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season and that includes 12-3 (80%) when those are home games! Pittsburgh is also 6-1 to the over on Thursdays this season and 16-8 (67%) to the over in day games. With yesterday's high-scoring loss, the Pirates are now 24-12 (67%) to the over in their home games this season. With the weather this afternoon in Pittsburgh coupled with a pair of hurlers giving up the long ball, the over is the way to go in this one. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Suarez starts this season while Niese continues to have trouble with too many fat pitches (17 homers in 14 starts this season). *8* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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06-22-16 | White Sox v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 107 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Back to back 3-1 games to open up this 4-game series with a pair of easy unders. Look for the low-scoring trend to come to an abrupt end on Wednesday evening. The Red Sox are sending Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound and he is winless with an 8.59 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The struggling southpaw gave up 6 homers in those 3 starts even though he averaged under 5 innings per outing. While Boston will struggle to hold the ChiSox offense in check tonight, the Red Sox lineup should provide plenty of fireworks on their own. Yes, the BoSox have struggled the last few games at the plate but they are getting a second look at Jose Quintana after seeing him last month. The White Sox lefty has been an "under machine" this season but he has given up 4 homers in his last 4 starts. Also, in the month of June he has been hit at a .275 clip. On the season, right-handed hitters have hit Quintana 71 points higher than lefties and last season the margin of difference was 50 points. He will face plenty of right-handed lumber in the BoSox lineup tonight and I look for his recent struggles to resume. Before struggling the first two games of this series, Boston had reached double digits in hits in 6 of their last 9 games. The over is 15-7 this season in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and also 23-14 this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in White Sox road games this season with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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06-22-16 | Mariners v. Tigers -115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers -110 vs Seattle @ 7:10 ET - With their 4-2 win yesterday, Detroit sent the Mariners to their 8th loss in their last 10 games. Things are unlikely to improve for the M's today as they face a red hot Michael Fullmer. The right-hander has a 0.51 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 0.69 ERA in his 2 home starts this season. Fullmer has an advantage here in that the Mariners have never faced him. Conversely, the Tigers have seen plenty of Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma and they have gotten to him for 5 earned runs in 2 of the last 3 meetings! The Tigers hit 6 homers against Iwakuma in those 2 outings where the Mariners right-hander allowed 5 earned runs each time. Iwakuma comes into this outing having allowed 4 homers in his last two starts. The Tigers are "only" 6-5 their last 11 games but they have averaged nearly 6 runs per game during this stretch and Fullmer shouldn't require a lot of run support as his phenomenal season continues. The Tigers are 8-2 in Fullmer's 10 starts this season. Look for Seattle's June Swoon (6-14 this month) to continue while the Tigers improve on a 16-6 (73%) record this season in home games with a money line between -100 and -150. This is a classic case of "hot versus not" and I like the line value here with the small home fave. *10* DETROIT |
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06-22-16 | Diamondbacks v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Toronto vs Arizona @ 4:05 ET - J.A. Happ is off of a very strong start for Toronto but that came against his former team, Phillies, who have been floundering badly of late. In other words, it is important to keep in mind that his prior two starts saw Happ give up 10 earned runs in the 12 innings spanning those two outings. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Happ's last 3 starts. The over is also an incredible 9-2 in Robbie Ray's last 11 starts. In this battle of left-handers, Ray is getting the start for the Diamondbacks and has been an "over machine" as you can see from those numbers. Ray has lasted less than 5 and 2/3 innings in 8 of those 11 outings! Ironically, Ray's most recent start also came at Philadelphia. Again, with how bad the Phillies have been I don't put a lot of weight into that start. In his 4 prior road starts the Dbacks southpaw has given up 24 hits in 20 innings. Look for him to get hit hard here. Prior to being held to just two runs in yesterday's surprising defeat, the Blue Jays had averaged 7.4 runs per game in going 8-4 in their last 12 games. Toronto's offense should surely bounce back today while Arizona also stays hot at the plate. The Diamondbacks have averaged scoring 5 runs per victory during their current 8-2 winning stretch. The over is 7-4 in Dbacks interleague games this season. The over is 7-3 in the Blue Jays last 10 games overall. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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06-22-16 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Houston vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:10 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of an 8.5 and is offering great line value as a "contrarian play" on the over. I am well aware of the fact that the Angels Matt Shoemaker has been pitching very well but the Astros can do some "long ball" damage at home. Also, I certainly expect the Houston starter, Lance McCullers, to get pounded. He is fortunate to have a 4.24 ERA on the season as McCullers has a 1.69 WHIP. He gave up 2 homers in his last start against the Angels (in September) and Shoemaker comes into this having allowed 3 homers in his last 2 road starts. After yesterday's low-scoring match-up look for a wild one this afternoon. The Angels had averaged 5 runs per game in their last 9 games before scoring just 2 yesterday. The Astros are confident at the plate as they have now won 4 straight home games and averaged 6 runs per victory. The "walk off wins" are helping the confidence factor. The over is 18-12 in Angels games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Also, the over is 29-19 this season in Angels games against right-handed starters. Shoemaker has a 4.59 ERA on the road this season and McCullers has the big WHIP overall that shows he's been fortunate to produce a low ERA. Both these guys come unraveled this afternoon. Grab the line value with the downward move on this total. *8* OVER in Houston |
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06-21-16 | Reds v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Texas vs Cincinnati @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers Colby Lewis is off of an incredible start where he had a perfect game into the 8th inning and a no-hitter into the 9th inning. Oftentimes when a pitcher like this (4.50 ERA and .289 BAA at home this season) is off of a phenomenal start, they quickly come crashing back down to reality. The fact is that Lewis is known for struggling at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington. Last season he had a 5.07 ERA in his home starts. In 2014, Lewis went 3-9 with a 5.90 ERA and .315 BAA. Look for Lewis to again struggle tonight as he's back home off of a lengthy outing where he logged 109 pitches as he was going for the no-no. The over is 6-1 in the 7 home starts that Lewis has made this season. He'll be opposed by Anthony DeSclafani of the Reds. The Cincinnati right-hander struggled in what was just his 2nd start of the season. He's fortunate, to say the least, that he has a 2.08 ERA so far this season as he has a 2.31 WHIP in his 8 and 2/3 innings on the mound. DeSclafani has been hit a .389 clip in his limited action this season but the fact is he's been hit hard at the MLB level with a .282 BAA in his 226+ career innings. Even in the minors the young righty has struggled this year. At the AA and AAA level combined, DeSclafani gave up 11 earned runs in 17 innings of work. Amazingly, he allowed 6 homers in those 17 innings at the minor league level! The over is 3-1 this season when the Reds are off of a shutout loss and they lost 6-0 to Houston on Sunday. The over is 32-19 this season in Cincinnati's games against right-handed starters. As a home favorite in the -175 to -225 range the Rangers are on a long-term 115-76 run to the over. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Rangers Tuesday games this year with another wild one tonight. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-21-16 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Cleveland vs Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - There were 5 homers hit in yesterday's game and it finished with 11 runs in Cleveland's 7-4 win. Contrary to what many are likely expecting here, I am well known as a contrarian and I fully expect another rather high-scoring match-up tonight. A low total is being offered on today's game because of the long-term reputation of Corey Kluber of the Indians. This is a great value for over players today because Kluber is coming off of a rough start plus he has struggled often in his outings at home this season. Kluber got rocked at Kansas City in his start last week as he allowed 8 earned runs in only 5 innings of work. Now the Indians right-hander is back home where his last start was a successful one, also against the Royals. But prior to that strong outing at home, Kluber had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his first 5 home starts this season. This is hardly "ace like" production and I look for Kluber to again struggle tonight as the Rays have gotten to him for 10 earned runs the last 3 times they've faced him. Tampa Bay will have pitching issues of their own tonight as the Rays hand the ball to Blake Snell for tonight's start. The young lefty didn't even make it out of the 4th inning in his start last week and yet it took him 92 pitches just to get to that point (1 out in the 4th inning when Snell exited). The 23 year old southpaw allowed 5 runs but was fortunate only 1 was earned as he gave up 8 hits in 3 and 1/3 innings. The over is 11-3 in Cleveland's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 20-9 in Tampa Bay's road games this season. Look for another game to reach double digits in runs tonight as Snell's struggles continue and Kluber has another rough outing which has been a problem for him all season long at home. *10* OVER 8 in Cleveland |
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06-21-16 | Rockies v. Yankees OVER 9 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees vs Colorado @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees and Rockies just met in Colorado last week and Ivan Nova faced Chad Bettis in one of those games. The fact these guys just faced each other (and Nova got hit particularly hard) means that the lineups are very familiar with the offerings they are going to see in the rematch. That's bad news for both hurlers because Nova has a 6.30 ERA in his last five starts and the 5 earned runs he allowed at Colorado last week marked the 2nd time in his last three starts that he has allowed 5 earned runs. The Rockies Chad Bettis has also been struggling and is unlikely to again enjoy the "moderate success" he had against the Yanks lineup last week as they get a quick "second look" at him this week. The win that Bettis notched versus the Yankees Wednesday is the only victory he has in the past five weeks. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.43 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP in his last three starts. In games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 4-0 this season in Colorado games and 33-20 the past three seasons combined. The over is 4-1 in Rockies inter-league games this season. Look for the Yankees to go over the total for a 4th straight game here after their weekend series with the Twins wrapped up with three straight overs. *8* OVER in New York Yankees |
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06-20-16 | Mariners v. Tigers OVER 10 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Detroit vs Seattle @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers Mike Pelfrey is 1-7 with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP on the season. He's been extremely hittable all season long and he's fortunate that his ERA isn't higher. The veteran right-hander now faces a Mariners team that will be ready to bounce back after being held to just 1 run despite 8 hits in yesterday's game. The M's have averaged 9.4 hits per game in their last 9 games. Before back to back unders 5 of the Mariners last 7 games had gone over the total and I look for that type of trend to resume here as the over is 4-2 in Pelfrey's home starts this season. The Tigers had an extremely disappointing effort at the plate in yesterday's 2-1 loss. However, 5 of Detroit's 6 prior games had gone over the total. The Tigers were averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last 8 games before yesterday's disappointing result. Detroit should be able to bounce back strong against the offerings of Nate Karns. The Mariners righty has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his last 3 starts as control has been an issue with far too many walks. Also, only 3 of Karns' last 12 starts have resulted in an under. The Tigers are happy to be back home and the over is 18-8 in their home games this season. Detroit is also 7-1 to the over in their Monday games this season. Against teams with a winning record, the Tigers are 23-10 to the over this season and, against right-handed starters, the Tigers have gone 31-17 to the over this season. Both lineups bounce back from disappointing efforts at the plate as each club resumes the hot hitting that had been on display in recent games. *10* OVER in Detroit |
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06-20-16 | Rays +126 v. Indians | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line +125 @ Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - The Rays Drew Smyly, after extra time off where his turn in the rotation was skipped, returned to action refreshed and renewed as he struck out a career-high 12 batters over seven innings. That start came against the Mariners and he allowed just two runs to Seattle as he bounced back and resumed his status as a strikeout pitcher. Look for the southpaw to give the Indians trouble here as Cleveland is off of a huge sweep over the division rival White Sox and I expect that to leave the Tribe a little flat here as they try to come down off of that emotional high. The Indians were held to just 3 runs yesterday despite the victory. That said, it marked the 8th time in their last 13 games that Cleveland has been held to 3 runs or less! By contrast, the Rays had scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 15 games before their 5-1 home loss to San Francisco yesterday. Look for Tampa Bay to get right back on track here as, though they struggled in the interleague series with the Giants, the Rays had previously won 9 of their last 12 games. Tampa will face the Indians Josh Tomlin who certainly has some impressive overall numbers this season but he has allowed 23 hits in his last 3 starts and those have spanned less than 20 innings. If he's hittable again here (as I suspect he will be) the Indians are going to be in trouble because Smyly can be a strikeout machine again in this match-up. Tomlin has given up 3 homers in his last 2 starts. The Indians are 3-5 in Monday games this season and 16-26 the past 3 seasons combined and, as mentioned above, this is a flat spot for them after the big weekend series sweep of the division rival ChiSox. Tampa Bay is 13-5 in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. *10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-20-16 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 9 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Philadelphia vs Arizona @ 1:05 ET - The Diamondbacks Shelby Miller is making his first MLB start since coming off the disabled list following a sprained index finger on his throwing hand. Though he pitched well in his rehab outings those were at the single A level in the minors. There is no comparison between the level of the hitters he faced there and the level of hitters he'll face today. At the MLB level, Miller is 1-6 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP this season. The over is 3-1 in his road starts this season. The Dbacks righty will be opposed by a struggling Phillies right-hander. Jeremy Hellickson has been very hittable of late as he's gone winless in his last 3 starts while compiling a 7.41 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in those outings. Each of Hellickson's last three starts have gone over the total. The over is 13-5 in June games for the Phillies. The past two seasons the Phils have had 8 home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and only 2 of those 8 stayed under the total. The over is 7-1 in Diamondbacks Monday games this season and 28-12 the past three seasons combined. In their games against teams with a losing record this season, the over has gone 18-10 in Arizona's games. Look for the Dbacks to continue to hit the ball well this afternoon but the key to this over is that the Phillies sticks are finally able to get on track thanks to facing the very hittable Miller. *8* OVER in Philadelphia |
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06-19-16 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Oakland vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:05 ET - Yesterday's game was 7-1 in the top of the 6th inning and the posted total was an 8.5 but the game stalled at that point and did not get the single run it needed to go over the total. That might help limit the market activity on today's total and help to keep it at a 9 but, either way, this is one match-up that should easily fly over the total. Eric Surkamp gets the start for the A's and he hasn't even made it out of the third inning in two of his last three starts. Also, the southpaw is struggling overall with more walks than strikeouts as a starter this season. Surkamp is winless in his 7 starts this season with an ugly 8.07 ERA that is worse (9.25 ERA) at home and that is showing no signs (13.03 ERA last 3 starts) of turning around. As Surkamp continues to head the wrong direction we also continue to see from the Angels Jered Weaver what we've seen with him for many years. That is that he struggles on the road. Through the years he's taken advantage of pitching his home starts at pitcher-friendly Anaheim but has struggled away from home. This season he has a 5.97 ERA on the road and, even though Oakland is generally considered a pitcher-friendly venue, the ball carries better in afternoon games and this is especially true when the wind is blowing out as it is expected to be at a good clip today. Each of Weaver's last 3 starts have gone over the total and the same is true of Surkamp's last 3 starts. Surkamp struggled against the Angels in his lone start against them in April of this year. He allowed 5 hits and 4 walks for 9 baserunners in a start that lasted less than 5 innings. Weaver has been rocked for 10 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work in his last two starts at Oakland. The A's had averaged nearly 6 runs per game in their last 6 games before struggling at the plate yesterday. Against Weaver, they will resume the hot hitting. As for the Angels, with their 7-1 win yesterday, they have averaged 6 runs per game in winning 3 of their last 4 games. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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06-19-16 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Kansas City vs Detroit @ 2:15 ET - The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman has an 8.49 ERA in his last two starts as "the fade" is on for him as he pitched "over his head" early this season. Zimmerman is in the wrong place at the wrong time to try and get back on track. The Royals are one of the hottest hitting teams in the league right now. With their 16-5 win yesterday, Kansas City has won 7 of their last 8 games and they've averaged 6.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The good news for Tigers fans though is that Detroit certainly should be able to do plenty of damage of their own at the plate Sunday afternoon. The Tigers will literally "tee off" against the Royals Chris Young as the big right-hander has allowed an amazing 10 homers in his last 3 starts! Young has a 9.25 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over this horrific three game stretch. Overall, this season has been a forgettable one thusfar for the veteran hurler as he's 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA on the year. The over is 5-1 in Detroit's last 6 games and none of Zimmerman's last 3 starts have resulted in an under. The over is also a perfect 4-0 in KC's last 4 games. The Tigers are a remarkable 17-6 to the over in day games this season and also 23-9 to the over this year in their games against teams with a winning record. The over is 3-1 this season in Royals games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the over has gone 4-2 the past three seasons combined in KC home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Kansas City |
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06-19-16 | Yankees v. Twins OVER 9 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Minnesota vs New York Yankees @ 2:10 ET - These teams combined for 13 runs in yesterday's game and today's match-up is poised to be another wild one. Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Yankees and he is struggling to get comfortable again with his splitter which has left him susceptible to getting pounded on the mound as he's turning to his fastball too often. The Yankees right-hander is winless with a 9.82 ERA and a 2.05 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by another struggling right-hander today. Ervin Santana gets the start for the Twins and the veteran hurler has lost five straight decisions. Santana has an 0-3 record and 7.79 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP in his last three starts. Each of these starters have given up 5 homers in their last 3 starts. There were 5 homers in yesterday's game so there is reason to believe this will likely turn into another slugfest today. Not only do we have two struggling hurlers on the mound but both bullpens struggled in yesterday's game too. The last three starts for each of these hurlers all resulted in overs! The over is 13-3 in Twins games this month and 31-17 this season when facing a right-handed starter. Minny is also 7-2 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Minnesota |
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06-19-16 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Cleveland vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - The Indians will have plenty of confidence at the plate after erupting for 13 runs in yesterday's game. While certainly no pitcher in the league is struggling as badly as James Shields has been over this last 4 starts, the ChiSox hurler today is certainly likely to struggle. Carlos Rodon is winless with a 1.59 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Indians have been pounding the ball at home this season and, with yesterday's 13-2 win, are now 21-9 to the over in home games this year! Included in that record is a 10-2 mark in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The White Sox are a big road dog here and have gone 6-1 to the over this season when they are away from home and priced as an underdog in the +150 to +200 range. The ChiSox will be facing Carlos Carrasco of the Indians. Although he has good numbers overall, Carrasco has gone winless with a 4.58 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Indians right-hander has struggled against the White Sox with a 3-8 record and 5.90 ERA in his 13 career starts versus the ChiSox. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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06-18-16 | Braves v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in New York Mets vs Atlanta @ 8:15 ET - This total has dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 as of gameday morning and this is offering substantial line value to the over. The Braves have their sticks going as, with yesterday's 5-1 win, Atlanta has averaged 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. Also, the Braves are averaging 10 hits per game in their last 12 games and they again reached double digits in hits last night with 11. Though the Mets Steven Matz has a solid ERA on the season, the southpaw has given up 24 hits in the 16 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. He's been ultra-hittable and will be facing an ultra-confident Braves lineup tonight. That should help get this one to be an easy over because Atlanta will have the struggling Aaron Blair on the mound. The Braves right-hander is winless in his 9 starts this season with a 7.59 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP. Blair has a 9.26 ERA on the road this season and a 9.45 ERA in his last 3 overall starts. The over is 4-1 in the 5 home starts that the Mets Steven Matz has made this season. The over is 8-2 this season in Mets Saturday games. The Braves are a huge dog here and that is noteworthy as the over is 7-2 long-term in Atlanta road games where they are a big dog in a price range of +225 to +250. Before yesterday's under, the Braves were on a 5-1 run to the over and the Mets were on a 4-1 run to the over. The Mets had averaged 10 hits per game in their last 7 games and they'll respond against the struggling Blair and a weak Braves bullpen after being held to just one run yesterday. *10* OVER in NY Mets |
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06-18-16 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9 | 2-13 | Win | 102 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Cleveland vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:10 ET - The numbers on James Shields are about as ugly as they can get. The newly acquired White Sox right-hander has been completely rocked in each of his first two starts with Chicago after also getting hammered in his final start as a member of the Padres. As a result, Shields is winless in his last three starts with some virtually unheard of ugly numbers - 21.41 ERA and a 3.62 WHIP! Shields is 2-8 on the season and each of his last three starts have resulted in overs. Danny Salazar certainly has been solid for the Indians but the Cleveland right-hander has had some issues with command of his pitches as he has walked 9 in his last two starts. The White Sox will be seeing him for the 4th time in the last 13 months and the ChiSox had averaged nearly 8 runs per game and 12 hits per game in their last 3 games before having a quiet night at the plate last night. Look for them to respond this evening and they'll need to because Shields is likely to get hammered again. Not only is he struggling badly but the Indians are 5-2 against the ChiSox this season and have averaged 5 runs per game against them. The over is 4-0 this season in White Sox road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 6-2 in Indians home games the last three seasons when they are priced as a big fave of -200 to -225. At home with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons, the Tribe are 9-3 to the over. Overall, the Indians are an incredible 20-9-1 to the over in home games this season. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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06-18-16 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies +152 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +145 vs Arizona @ 3:05 ET - The Phillies certainly have an unimpressive full season record but one situation they have thrived in all season long is games that are projected to be a pitchers' duel. That said, Zack Greinke and Jared Eickhoff certainly has the makings of a low-scoring tight battle and that is why the posted total on this game is only 7. Note that the Phillies are a stellar 11-5 (and +10.8 net units!) in games where the posted total is 7 runs or less this season. The Diamondbacks got the big 10-2 win yesterday but they are an ugly 12-17 this season when off of a win and Arizona is also a poor 9-14 in day games this season. Though Greinke is in good current form he's known for letting the mental aspect of pitching get to him at times (he's had anxiety type issues in the past) and he'll likely remember his last start in Philly. Greinke got roughed up for 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start at Philadelphia. I expect the Phillies to enjoy some surprising success against the Dbacks ace pitcher and I look for that to be plenty of run support for Eickhoff who has been pitching very well. The Phils right-hander has a 1.37 ERA in his last 3 starts and has a stellar 2.12 ERA in his 7 home starts this season. Arizona has never faced Eickhoff so that is a big edge for the right-hander and his 3.40 ERA on the season is lower than that of Greinke's ERA this season. In other words, don't be fooled by the records of 9-3 for Greinke and 4-8 for Eickhoff. This has the makings of an upset and is offering excellent home dog value for the Phils. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-18-16 | Yankees v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 7-6 | Win | 105 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in Minnesota vs New York Yankees @ 2:10 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees Michael Pineda has got his slider back on track and that has helped lead the way to some better starts for him of late. However, his last two starts have come at home. Pineda is now back on the road where he is 1-4 this season with a 5.46 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. He has made 6 road starts this season and not a single one of them has resulted in an under. As for Ricky Nolasco, the Twins are 9-2-2 to the over in his 13 starts this season. He's winless in his 6 home starts this season and has compiled a 6.50 ERA in those outings. 5 of Nolasco's 6 home starts have gone over the total. In his most recent home start the veteran right-hander was rocked for 5 earned runs on 11 hits in less than 6 innings of work. The Twins righty gave up 6 earned runs in just 2 innings in his last start against the Yankees. Pineda gave up 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work in his last outing against the Twins! The over is a perfect 3-0 in Pineda's career starts against Minnesota. With the Twins ugly loss to the Yankees last night flying over the total, the over is now 11-1-1 in Minny's last 13 games overall. As a road fave of -125 to -150, the Yanks are 18-10 to the over. The over is 30-17 in Twins games against right-handed starters. There is also line value here with this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 this morning. *8* OVER in Minnesota |
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06-17-16 | Tigers -115 v. Royals | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line -115 @ Kansas City @ 8:15 ET - With the Tigers 10-4 win over the Royals yesterday Detroit has won 9 of its last 13 games. The Tigers offense has averaged 6.2 runs per game during this stretch and it likely wouldn't take much run support for Michael Fullmer to get the win tonight. The Detroit right-hander is on an incredible scoreless streak that has reached 28 and 1/3 innings! The Royals have never faced Fullmer so that is another advantage for the red hot hurler. As for Kansas City starter Yordano Ventura, he faced the Tigers in April and was fortunate that he only allowed 2 earned runs in the 5 inning start as he gave up 6 hits and 3 walks in that game. Ventura was tougher to hit in April as he was throwing well. Note that in May (.291) and June (.275) opponents have been hitting at a much higher clip against Ventura. The Royals right-hander has given up 9 homers in his last 9 starts and faces a dangerous Tigers lineup tonight. Kansas City's loss last night to these Tigers drops KC to just 5-9 in their last 14 games. Detroit is 5-2 this season as a small road fave in a price range of -100 to -125. Though one might expect the Royals to bounce back after getting blasted yesterday, history certainly does not support that theory. Kansas City is 127-189 (40%) the last 316 times they were off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more! The Tigers have won 7 in a row with Fullmer on the mound. I don't see that streak stopping today! Great value on the money line here. *10* DETROIT |
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06-17-16 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Seattle @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox stunk it up at the plate last night which is rare, especially at Fenway Park, and I look for Boston to respond in a big way tonight. Before scoring just one run in last night's game, the BoSox had averaged 7 runs on 11.6 hits per game in their last 5 games. Friday I expect the Red Sox to take advantage of facing a hurler they have dominated. Seattle will have Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound and the right-hander has found the Red Sox to be a nemesis. Iwakuma has gone winless in 4 career starts against the Mariners while compiling a 9.60 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. The Seattle starter comes into this start having allowed 6 homers in his last 3 starts. The Mariners last 6 games in Boston have all gone over the total and I expect the Mariners to hit the ball very well tonight as well. The M's can tee off against Roenis Elias as the former Seattle hurler was called up from AAA Pawtucket to make this start. I expect the southpaw to feel the added pressure of having to face his former team in his first start back in the big leagues. In 2016 with Pawtucket and 2015 with Tacoma (both are AAA clubs), Elias has a combined 5.44 ERA. That is a lofty ERA considering it is minor league ball and I don't expect him to fare well at all against a team that certainly has great scouting reports on his repertoire of pitches. The Mariners come into this game off of a 6-4 win at Tampa Bay yesterday. Seattle will be facing a left-handed starter for a 3rd straight game which is a plus for the hitters. The M's have averaged about 5 runs per game in their last 9 games. The over is 5-2 this season in Mariners road games that have a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 15-6 in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. *10* OVER in Boston |
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06-17-16 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9 | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Baltimore vs Toronto @ 7:05 ET - Two red hot teams with red hot offenses square off in a divisional battle beginning on Friday. That's why I don't see either pitcher being able to slow down the momentum in game one of this series. The Blue Jays have won 7 of their last 9 games and have averaged 7.6 runs per game during this stretch. The Orioles have gone 10-5 in the month of June and the O's are averaging 6.2 runs per game this month! The Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez is unlikely to slow down the Baltimore lineup. In fact, the Jays righty just faced them Sunday and he allowed 10 hits (including 4 homers) in just 5 innings of work. The Orioles will have Mike Wright on the mound and he just faced Toronto on Saturday and he gave up 6 hits and walked 5 in just 5 innings of work and was fortunate the damage wasn't worse than the 4 earned runs he allowed in that one. Wright is now 0-3 with a 7.72 ERA and a ridiculous 2.14 WHIP in his 4 career starts against the Jays. Sanchez is 2-2 with a 7.45 ERA and equally ridiculous 2.17 WHIP in his 4 career starts against the Orioles. The over is 5-1 in the Blue Jays last 6 games. The over is 18-3 this season in Baltimore's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. As a home dog in a price range of +125 to +150, the Orioles went 4-1 to the over the past two seasons. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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06-17-16 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cubs | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Pittsburgh Pirates Run Line +1.5 runs +105 @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET - Of course Jake Arrieta is a fantastic pitcher who is having a phenomenal season again. However, there is great line value here with having Francisco Liriano and the Pirates +1.5 runs and at even money. This game is projected to be a low-scoring game (the total opened up at a 7 and may even drop to a 6.5) and the wind is expected to be blowing in at Wrigley Field. That means it likely will be the type of game where it is tough for either team to build any kind of margin in the game. The Cubs have lost 2 of Arrieta's last 3 starts and he did give up 3 earned runs on 9 hits in only 5 innings of work in his most recent home start. Also, prior to Arrieta's blowout win at Atlanta in his most recent start, 3 of his 6 prior outings had been games decided by a single run. Look for another tight game here as Liriano is certainly the type of pitcher who has displayed the ability to come up strong in a "big game setting" many times during his career. The Pirates lefty is coming off of a very strong start where he induced 17 swinging strikes and he struck out 8 while allowing just 1 earned run in that 6-inning outing. Liriano is looking to atone for an ugly effort at Wrigley Field in May and you can bet he'll be ready today. It's a Friday afternoon game at Wrigley Field and the Pirates are 41-20 in Friday games the past three seasons combined while the Cubs came into this season having gone only 26-29 in Friday games the two prior seasons. Again, we don't need a Pittsburgh win here as even a one-run Pirates loss gets us the cash in this one and I really like the situation here with the way Liriano threw in his last start coupled with the fact it will be "pitcher-friendly" conditions at Wrigley today. *8* PITTSBURGH +1.5 runs |
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06-16-16 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 or 10 in Boston vs Baltimore @ 7:10 ET - This total is likely to move to a 10 across the board but it has opened up at a 9.5 and the over is an incredible 18-2 in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and that includes a PERFECT 10-0 to the over in Baltimore's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Even with this total expected to move to a 10, note that the over is 18-9 in O's games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the over is 15-5 (including 9-3 at home) in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. As a home fave in a range of -125 to -150, the over is 6-1 in Boston's games at Fenway Park this season. Against right-handed starters, the BoSox are 30-19 to the over. Based on the pitching match-up tonight, look for the over to improve to 6-1 in Boston's Thursday games this season. The Red Sox will have southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound and he just faced the Orioles at the end of May so Baltimore is getting a quick, second look at him. Rodriguez has given up 5 homers in his last two starts and been rocked for 9 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings while walking 7 and striking out only 4 in the two outings since he faced the O's. Right-hander Tyler Wilson gets the start for Baltimore and he also just matched up with Boston in late May so it's a quick second look for the ultra-dangerous Red Sox lineup. The right-hander has given up 22 hits in the 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last three starts and Wilson has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work over his last two starts. The Red Sox are averaging 7 runs per game in their last five games and the Orioles are averaging 6.3 runs per game in the month of June. Look for another slugfest tonight. *8* OVER in Boston |
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06-16-16 | Rangers -124 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Texas Rangers Money Line -124 @ Oakland @ 3:35 ET - This play is being written up before the results of the Wednesday night game are in but what I do know about this match-up has me ultra confident about how this one will play out. The A's will have Daniel Mengden making just his 2nd start. Though his 1st start wasn't "awful" it did show a glaring weakness which will be exploited here. Mengden could not retire left-hand batters. All 5 of his walks came against lefties and they also did the damage to him with the lumber too. The Rangers, including a switch-hitter, could have as many as 6 left-handed bats in the lineup Thursday and they will give Mengden fits. That's bad news for A's fans because they are unlikely to do much damage against Colby Lewis of the Rangers. The Texas right-hander is undefeated on the season and, as usual, he's been very strong on the road. Lewis has had struggles at home in recent seasons (hitter-friendly ballpark in Arlington) but he's known for big success away from home. I look for more of the same today as he's already proven dominant this season with a 1.35 ERA in his 6 road starts! Lewis also is 11-4 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in his career outings versus the A's. He has a 1.20 ERA in his last 2 starts against them including dominating them in Oakland in September. The Rangers entered Wednesday's action having won 18 of their last 24 games while the A's entered Wednesday having lost 8 of their last 10 games. The A's are 18-31 against right-handed starters this season while the Rangers entered Wednesday's action with a 24-13 mark in divisional games this season. *8* TEXAS |
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06-16-16 | Reds v. Braves OVER 8 | 2-7 | Win | 101 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Atlanta vs Cincinnati @ 12:10 ET - The Reds Daniel Straily has pitched well this season and there is no denying that the Braves are certainly not an offensive juggernaut. However, the key here is that Atlanta does have some confidence building at the plate with some recent better performances and it helps being at home as well as the fact it will be hitter-friendly weather conditions on a warm afternoon in Atlanta Thursday. The Reds certainly should have no troubles at the plate as they take advantage of facing a struggling Matt Wisler. The Braves righty has a 9.60 ERA in his last 3 starts and he's allowed 3 homers in EACH of his last two starts. The Reds are 15-8 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs and Cincy also has gone 12-7 to the over in day games and 31-17 to the over in their games against right-handed starters. Look for the over to improve to 7-1 in Cincinnati's Thursday games this season. With last night's easy over, the over is now 8-1 in Atlanta's home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Last, but certainly not least, each of these teams has had issues with struggling bullpens this season. Look for a wild early afternoon slugfest in this one. *8* OVER in Atlanta |
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06-15-16 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Detroit @ 8:10 ET - For the 2nd straight night these two teams combined for 19 runs in their game. Game 3 of the series should result in another easy over. The Tigers have won 9 of their last 13 games and are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 14 games. The White Sox have gone 13-7 to the over in their last 20 games and should enjoy continued success at the plate against Mike Pelfrey. The Tigers right-hander has a 1-6 record and a 4.68 ERA this season but his ERA could easily be even higher. Pelfrey has been hit at a .322 clip so "big damage" is almost always just "a pitch away" for the veteran hurler. The way the White Sox are swinging the bats in this series, and considering it will be another hitter-friendly weather night in Chicago tonight, Pelfrey is likely to suffer the "big damage" in this one. The only good news for he and the Tigers is that they are catching Chris Sale at the right time. The big White Sox southpaw has been struggling of late. He's compiled a 6.57 ERA in his two starts in the month of June but the struggles go even further back. Looking at his last 4 starts, Sale has allowed 17 earned runs on 34 hits and 9 walks in his last 22 and 2/3 innings. That equates to a very "un-Sale like" 6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP as the lanky lefty has allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning in his last 4 starts! Since these teams are divisional rivals, the Tigers are very familiar with Sale and enjoyed success against he and Pelfrey squared off earlier this month. That game ended with 11 runs scored and a similar result tonight should be expected. *10* OVER in Chicago White Sox |
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06-15-16 | Astros v. Cardinals -113 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line -113 vs Houston @ 7:15 ET - Adam Wainwright has more career wins (13) against the the Astros than any other team in the league. The Cardinals right-hander has won seven straight decisions against Houston and I like the value being offered with him in this spot. St Louis lost yesterday's game thanks in part to a pair of unearned runs. The top five hitters in the Astros lineup only went 2 of 20 - hitting .100 in yesterday's game. Wainwright comes into this start having allowed only 26 hits in his last 32 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 5 starts. The Cards righty has a 3.03 ERA in these last five starts combined and is pitching much better of late than what his full season stats would lead you to believe. Couple that with his career-long domination of the Astros and we are truly getting extremely strong line value with he and the Cardinals at home in this match-up. The Astros Collin McHugh has a 5.22 ERA on the season and has been hit at a .302 clip on the year. He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his 13 starts this season and this looks like another tough spot for him as he has a losing record on the road and a losing record in night games this season. The Houston right-hander also has a 5.00 ERA in his career starts against the Cardinals. The Cards had won 7 of 8 before yesterday's loss. Also, the Astros were only 13-21 on the road this season before notching yesterday's win. *10* ST LOUIS |
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06-15-16 | Yankees v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 12 in Colorado vs NY Yankees @ 3:10 ET - 23 runs scored in yesterday's game and the way these two starting pitchers have been throwing of late there is no reason we won't see another very high-scoring game this afternoon in Colorado. Of course afternoon games at Coors Field with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out are already the perfect recipe for an over. But what really adds the value here is the match-up of Ivan Nova and Chad Bettis on the hill. The Yankees Nova has been hit at a .310 clip on the road this season while compiling a 6.57 ERA away from home. The Yanks right-hander has a 5.76 ERA in his last 4 starts and has given up 8 homers in his 7 starts this season. Pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field will not help Nova. The Rockies Bettis has struggled even more than Nova over his last 4 starts as the Colorado right-hander has an 11.57 ERA during this stretch. Bettis has allowed 6 homers in these 4 starts and the ball will again be carrying very well this afternoon at Coors Field. Bettis came into this season with a career ERA of 6.50 ERA at Coors Field where he's been hit at a .324 clip. Nothing has changed in 2016 as his struggles in the hitter-friendly venue continue with a 6.41 ERA and a .327 BAA. Neither bullpen enjoyed success in yesterday's game either. *8* OVER in Colorado |
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06-14-16 | Yankees v. Rockies +115 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 115 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Colorado Rockies +115 vs New York Yankees @ 8:40 ET - What the public is likely to see here is a Rockies pitcher, Jorge De La Rosa, who is 1-4 with an 11.41 ERA as a starter this season. What I see is a guy who got relegated to bullpen duty, including long relief of as much as 4 innings (and not in meaningless games) and who stepped up big time. In 8 innings of bullpen work De La Rosa allowed only 1 earned run on a solo bomb and that was 1 of just 3 hits against him in these 8 innings while he walked none and struck out 10. De La Rosa now takes on a Yankees team that has struggled against left-handers this season with an 8-13 record and some ugly numbers at the plate against lefties. The Yankees haven't faced De La Rosa in a long time (which certainly could help the lefty) as he's happy to face a team against which he's 3-0 in his career with a 0.00 ERA thanks to 17 scoreless innings! De La Rosa will be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi of the Yanks. The right-hander has been struggling of late with 10 earned runs on 18 hits (including 3 homers) in his last two starts spanning only 10 and 2/3 innings of work. Eovaldi is facing a Rockies team that crushes the ball at home averaging 5.7 runs per game while hitting at a .291 clip. Colorado has won 6 of its last 8 games and the Rockies bullpen has been improving while the Yankees bullpen has struggled on the road this season. Look for the Rockies to improve to 5-2 this season as a home dog of +100 to +125. *10* COLORADO |
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06-14-16 | Astros v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8.5 in St Louis vs Houston @ 8:15 ET - The Astros got shutout in their most recent game on Sunday and they simply are awful at the plate. Houston has now been held to an average of 2.7 runs per game in their last 6 games. All 6 of these contests stayed under the total. The Astros have been held to 7 hits or less in 5 of the 6 games. Even though the Cardinals Jaime Garcia is off of a tough outing in his most recent start, he previously had allowed 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Astros have been horrible at the plate against southpaws and that has led to a 5-12 record in games against left-handed starters this season. The under is 4-1 in Garcia's home starts this season and also 5-2 in Doug Fister's road starts for Houston this season. Fister has been the Astros most consistent starter this season and the Cardinals haven't faced him in over a year. By the way, the Astros haven't faced Garcia since the 2012 season. Inter-league match-ups often tend to give the pitchers and edge due to the lack of familiarity the hitters have with them. The under is 19-12 this season in Astros games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The under is 28-15 in Houston games when they are a road dog of +125 to +150. Cardinals inter-league games on a 26-14 run to the under. Also, the Cards are 39-20 to the under in June games the past 2+ seasons. Fister has had quality starts in 9 of his last 10. I expect another one here and I expect the Astros struggles at the plate to continue against Garcia. *8* UNDER in St Louis |
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