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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-13-16 | White Sox v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #925/926 - IL Game of the Month - 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET Saturday - As I mentioned in my most recent write-up involving James Shields, the veteran right-hander has been one of the streakiest pitchers in baseball this season in terms of his performance. He has not varied from start to start. He is simply either "on or off" and right now he is "off" again. Shields had a good cycle of 10 starts to begin the season, then had 5 rough starts, then had 6 solid starts, and now he is in a "down" cycle again. Shields has been reached for 14 runs in the minuscule 6 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Overall, in a White Sox uniform, Shields has a 6.68 ERA and it certainly looks like the "fade" is on for him once again. He will be opposed by a fellow struggling hurler tonight as Adam Conley gets the starts for the Marlins. The Miami left-hander, since the All Star break, is simply not the pitcher he was before the break. Perhaps fatigue - both mental and physical - are kicking in but Conley is not pitching deep into games and has walked 13 in this last 3 starts which have spanned less than 16 innings! Conley also has given up 26 hits in his last 21 and 1/3 innings of work. In his 5 starts since the break only 1 has stayed under the total. The over is 12-5 in Miami's Saturday's games this season and 9-3 in Marlins interleague games this year. This total is still a 9 in many places as of early Saturday morning but we're seeing some 8.5 starting to pop up. Note that the White Sox are 7-1 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER in Miami Saturday |
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08-13-16 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #903/904 - PA Insider - 8* OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 4:05 ET Saturday - Brandon McCarthy started off strong for the Dodgers when he returned to the rotation in July. However, he has been on the fade in his last three starts. McCarthy has not lasted longer than 4 innings in any of his last 3 starts. He has walked 10 while striking out just 2 in his last 2 starts and all of these baserunners are eventually going to catch up with him. He has managed to escape "major damage" in these starts but I can see the Pirates really crushing him today. It is a day game at Dodger Stadium so the ball will carry a little better than it does in night games. Also, Pittsburgh has a .341 on base percentage in day games and that is good for 4th out of all 30 MLB teams this season. The Pirates will have Gerrit Cole on the mound this afternoon and, even though the Southern Cal native is 3-0 in his last 3 starts against the Dodgers he has given up 3 earned runs in each outing. The Dodgers, like the Bucs, also have a .341 on base percentage in day games this season. Cole has been hit at a .294 clip by left-handed batters this season and the Dodgers will have plenty of lumber in the lineup for that side of the plate today. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Dodgers had gone over in 4 straight. 9 of the Dodgers last 14 games against teams with a winning record have gone over the total. The Pirates are 22-14 to the over in day games this year. 8* OVER in Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday |
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08-13-16 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #915/916 - Earliest Cash - 8* OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros @ 1:05 ET Saturday - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total but it was no fault of the red hot Astros bats as they tallied 5 runs on 12 hits. Houston has now averaged 9.3 runs per game in their last 4 games and has had at least 9 hits in 7 of its last 8 games. The Astros should stay hot against Aaron Sanchez who is coming off of a rough outing at Kansas City where he allowed 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 6 innings of work. Houston's Collin McHugh will be the other struggling hurler in this match-up. The Astros right-hander is 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Blue Jays had scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their 8 home games prior to being held to just 3 yesterday. Toronto should fare well against an Astros starter that has been ultra-hittable of late. Look for the over to improve to 12-6 in Jays Saturday games this season. 8* OVER 8.5 in Toronto Saturday |
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08-12-16 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #959/960 - 8* OVER 9 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET Friday - After surprising success in his first MLB start since Tommy John surgery, the Reds Homer Bailey quickly got a "reality" check at Pittsburgh in his second start. Against the Pirates, Bailey was rocked for 5 earned runs on 8 hits in just 3 innings of work Saturday. In his last two starts at Milwaukee Bailey has lived up to his first name (literally!) as it has been 5 HOMERS allowed in less than a dozen innings of work. The only good news for Reds fans is that their own lineup should enjoy plenty of success at the plate as well. Cincinnati will be able to "tee off" against the Brewers Jimmy Nelson. The right-hander is struggling badly with an 0-3 mark and a 12.46 ERA and 2.54 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Nelson has seen only 1 of his 5 starts since the All Star break stay under the total. The over is 8-4 in Reds games where they are a road dog of +100 to +125. The over is also 11-5 when Cincy is on the road and the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. Additionally, the over is 26-14 in Cincinnati's divisional games this season. As for the Brewers, there have been just 2 unders this season in their 10 games against the Reds. This game tonight has the makings of a slugfest with Nelson having allowed 3 homers in his last 3 starts. 8* OVER 9 in Milwaukee Friday |
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08-12-16 | White Sox +125 v. Marlins | 4-2 | Win | 125 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #975 - 8* Chicago White Sox Money Line +125 @ Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET Friday - The White Sox Carlos Rodon was throwing as high as 100 mph on the gun in his most recent start. The southpaw looked great against the Orioles and he now faces a Miami team that is not familiar with him. This is a big edge when you're throwing the way the southpaw is and I really liked what I saw from him versus Baltimore. The Marlins will have Andrew Cashner on the mound and he was hit hard by the Rockies in his most recent start. Cashner will be facing a ChiSox lineup that, before struggling against Duffy and KC yesterday, had reached double digits in hits in 5 of their 6 prior games. I am well aware of the fact that the Marlins have fared well against left-handed pitching this season but Rodon is off of a confidence-building outing and will throwing high heat again tonight. I look for the Marlins to drop to 4-8 in interleague games this season. As for the ChiSox, they are set up well to improve to 4-2 in Rodon's last 6 starts. Underdog line value here with the more proven starting pitcher. Yes, I know Rodon's record is poor this season but the southpaw has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 11 starts! 8* CHICAGO WHITE SOX money line Friday |
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08-12-16 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #965/966 - 8* OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros @ 7:05 ET Friday - The Astros last 3 games have totaled 46 runs and, as you would expect, all 3 went over the total. They should keep hitting the ball well tonight as Francisco Liriano gets the start for the Blue Jays and he is 6-11 with a 5.34 ERA this season. He'll be opposed by Houston's Joe Musgrove. I am well aware of the fact that Musgrove has had some surprising early success in his first two appearances at the MLB level (once out of the bullpen and once as a starter). However, this is still a guy whom had not pitched above the AA level in the minors until this season. At the AAA level this season he was hit at a .262 clip so it's not like he was mowing hitters down. He now faces a dangerous Blue Jays lineup that just took 2 of 3 from Tampa Bay and scored 7 runs in each of the two wins. The over is 13-3 this season (and 25-10 the last 3 seasons) in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 8* OVER 9 in Toronto |
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08-11-16 | Orioles v. A's OVER 8.5 | 9-6 | Win | 105 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #911/912 - Afternoon Contrarian - 6* OVER 8.5 in Oakland A's vs Baltimore Orioles @ 3:35 ET Â Thursday - Andrew Triggs gets the start for the A's in this one and he has mostly pitched out of the bullpen this season but the results are not impressive. Triggs has a 5.35 ERA on the season and opposing hitters are batting .297 against him. It is a big jump from AA ball to the big leagues and Triggs did not spend much time at all at the AAA level this season. This has put him in a tough spot here against a solid Orioles lineup as he makes just his 2nd MLB start. This is the 4th game of a 4 game set for Baltimore at Oakland and the first three games have been pitchers duels. That said, the odds maker is no fool in making this total an 8.5 even though the first three games COMBINED have only totaled 9 runs in this series. Today we should get 9 easily as Triggs is just not ready to be a big league starter and the Orioles Chris Tillman has a 5.94 ERA in his last three starts. Remember that Tillman also got hit at a .300 clip in June so, the point is, that he has just not been quite as sharp of late compared to how he was throwing back in April and May of this season. The A's will do much better in this day game setting at the plate as the ball carries better in day games and the wind will be blowing out to right field at a good clip for this one. 6* OVER 8.5 in Oakland |
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08-11-16 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 11 | 12-9 | Win | 106 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #919/920 - Daytime Dominator - 6* OVER 11 in Texas vs Colorado @ 2:05 ET Thursday - Yesterday's game stayed under the total even though both bullpens showed some issues. Lucas Harrell gets the start for the Rangers today and he has some ugly numbers in his 5 career starts against the Rockies. Harrell has been roughed up with a 7.40 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in his games against Colorado. The over is a PERFECT 5-0 in those starts! In other words, when Harrell has made a start against the Rockies there has NEVER BEEN A LOSS on an over ticket. Considering that the Rockies should again pound Harrell (5.17 ERA in his home starts this season) and that the Rangers are riding the momentum of a 5-game winning streak, I look for a back and forth slugfest here. Chad Bettis gets the start for the Rockies here and he has been hit at a .304 clip in day games this season. Bettis has a 5.40 ERA in day games this year. Look for the over to improve to 9-3 in Colorado's Thursday games this season. 6* OVER 11 in Texas Thursday |
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08-11-16 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 9-0 | Win | 109 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #901/902 - Earliest Cash - 6* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 12:10 ET Thursday - I am well aware of the fact that the Mets have injuries that have impacted their lineup and that, overall, they have not been hitting the ball well. However, the Mets should have no trouble with the offerings of Braden Shipley. Not only is the young right-hander struggling but he also will be without the catcher who caught two of his better games. In the only start that Welington Castillo did not catch Shipley, the righty got rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work at Milwaukee. The Mets will have Noah Syndergaard on the mound for this one and he has not been himself for quite some time. Over the last two months he has given up 53 hits in 44 and 1/3 innings. Of course these are ugly numbers by his standards and the over was 8-3 in his 11 starts prior to his most recent outing staying under the total - even though Syndergaard did allow 4 earned runs in that start last week. The over is 23-14 in Diamondbacks day games and yesterday's extra inning affair helps us in terms of using up some extra bullpen as the game took 12 innings to decide. 6* OVER 7.5 in New York Mets Thursday |
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08-10-16 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #979/980 - Over Easy - 6* OVER 10 in Texas vs Colorado @ 8:05 ET Wednesday - Yesterday's total (for those who played it) was a push for most as it totaled 12 runs in Colorado. Now this series shifts to Texas and even though 10 is a big number, there is no reason this game shouldn't fly over the total. Both of these clubs have hit left-handers quite well and both of these southpaw starters are struggling. Jorge De la Rosa gets the start for the Rockies and though his numbers have been a little better of late he still has a 4.43 ERA in his last 4 starts and a 5.69 ERA on the season. De la Rosa allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings the last time he faced the Rangers. Texas will have Martin Perez on the mound for this one and the southpaw is winless with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in his two career starts against Colorado. Perez has a 7.07 ERA in his last 6 starts. With yesterday's 7-5 win the Rangers have notched at least 11 hits in 4 of their last 6 games. The Rockies sticks have managed to total 11 hits in 5 of their last 8 games. Look for the over to improve to 12-6 in Rangers Wednesday games this season. De la Rosa's last start stayed under the total but the over was 10-5 in his 15 prior starts this season and with both teams having high slugging percentages against left-handed pitching this year, look for plenty of power to be on display at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington Wednesday evening. 6* OVER in Texas |
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08-10-16 | Indians +121 v. Nationals | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #975 - Afternoon Crusher - 6* Cleveland Indians Money Line +120 @ Washington @ 4:05 ET Wednesday - Josh Tomlin gets the start for the Indians and, not only is Cleveland 15-5 in his starts this season, the right-hander is coming off of a tough start and that is a significant factor. Tomlin has shown all season long that he bounces back off of a sub-par start. As a result, Cleveland is already a perfect 8-0 this season when he is off of a start where he allowed 3 earned runs or more. Look for Tomlin to respond with a strong effort today and, by the way, the Indians are 21-10 this season against left-handed starters. The Tribe will be facing southpaw Gio Gonzalez in this one. The lefty is off of a win in his most recent start but the Nationals had lost 10 of his 13 prior starts! Washington is unlikely to give Gonzalez much run support here as they have scored only 1 run in EACH of their last 3 games! With Tomlin fired up off of a rare tough start, look for the Indians to improve to a perfect 9-0 this season when the righty is off of a start where he allowed 3 earned runs or more. The Tribe improve to 36-16 in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. 6* CLEVELAND INDIANS |
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08-10-16 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #953/954 - Daytime Dominator - 6* OVER 8 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 3:10 ET Wednesday - With yesterday's 9-3 Dodgers win, the over is now 10-3 in the Phillies last 13 games. Although Jeremy Hellickson has been solid on the mound this season for Philadelphia, Dodger Stadium has not been kind to him in his career. Hellickson is winless in his 3 career starts at Dodger Stadium with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. He'll be opposed by the Dodgers Scott Kazmir this afternoon. The veteran southpaw has struggled in day games this season with a 7.58 ERA and he's been hit at a .276 clip. Also, right-handed hitters have hit .260 against him this season and the Phillies have a number of big right-hand bats that have enjoyed success against southpaws this season. This is not a very good match-up for Kazmir and he's been struggling lately with 4 earned runs allowed in each of his last two starts and he walked 4 while striking out just 2 in his most recent start. Also, he's allowed 10 earned runs in his last 10 and 1/3 innings against Philadelphia. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Hellickson's career starts against the Dodgers. Also, the over is 8-3 in the last 11 starts that Kazmir has made. The over is 17-8 in Phillies road games this season where the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. This will be the 30th Dodgers game with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this season and, so far, only 11 of those have stayed under the total. 6* OVER in LA Dodgers |
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08-10-16 | Giants v. Marlins -120 | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #951 - Earliest Cash - 6* Miami Marlins Money Line -120 vs San Francisco @ 12:10 ET Wednesday - As of early Wednesday morning, this line has come down from an opener of -140 down to a -120 on the Marlins. This is creating excellent line value on Miami. The reason for the move can at least partially be attributed to a lot of bettors looking for the Giants to bounce back off of a shutout loss. However, San Francisco has actually not performed all that well in that role this season and the key in today's match-up comes down to the pitching. The Giants have lost all 4 of Jeff Samardzija's starts since the All Star break and he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in all 4 of those starts as well as 9 of his last 12 starts overall! The Marlins will have David Phelps on the mound and he was sharp in his season debut at Colorado last week. It was impressive that, even though he was pitching in the thin air at Coors Field, Phelps was able to pitch out of some early trouble. Also, although he did not work deep into the game he actually got stronger as he went through the lineup a 2nd time. The Marlins bullpen is in good shape after Miami got 7 innings from starter Tom Koehler yesterday so Phelps will have strong support behind for today's game as well. Look for the Giants to drop to 0-5 in Samardzija's starts since the All Star break as the Marlins improve to 6-3 in their last 9 home games against San Francisco. 6* MIAMI MARLINS |
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08-09-16 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #907/908 - Slugfest Smash - 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Milwaukee vs Atlanta @ 8:10 ET Tuesday - Last night's game went 12 innings so some extra bullpen work was required. That is significant here because neither pitcher is likely to go deep in this game. The Braves Tyrell Jenkins has not gone longer than 6 innings in any of his starts since moving into the rotation. Also, he's been stellar at home but has struggled in his road starts with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in his 3 starts away from home. The Brewers will have Wily Peralta on the mound and he's only getting this start because of the injury to Junior Guerra. The Milwaukee right-hander has a 7.79 ERA in his 7 home starts this season and the over is a PERFECT 7-0 in his home outings this year! Peralta was so ineffective that he was sent to AAA. Even at the AAA level he has struggled too as he was roughed up for a 6.31 ERA in his 10 starts at the minor league level. Even though it did take extra innings to get there, the fact is that the Braves reached double digits in hits yesterday for the 8th time in their last 12 games. The over was 7-4 in Atlanta's last 11 games before yesterday's game fell short. Jenkins gave up 3 homers in his most recent road start and the Brewers offense had been producing well in home games. They bounce back here and turn this one into a slugfest. 10* OVER in Milwaukee |
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08-09-16 | Padres +140 v. Pirates | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #901 - PA Insider - 8* San Diego Padres +140 @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET Tuesday - Both of these starting pitchers rely on their sinkers. The difference is that the Padres Luis Perdomo has had success with his of late as it has been truly nasty with the bite it has had. Conversely, the Pirates Chad Kuhl has struggled with his for much of this season and that's why he has not been able to be a consistent hurler that is able to stay in Pittsburgh's rotation. Kuhl has an 8.59 ERA in his two home starts this season and he's facing a Padres lineup that has averaged 7.5 runs per game in its last 4 games. All 4 games went over the total. Also, 3 of San Diego's last 4 road games have also gone over the total and the Padres averaged 6.5 runs in those 4 games. The way that San Diego is swinging the bats right now there is great underdog value with them in this spot because the Pirates have been struggling at the plate. Pittsburgh is only 3-6 in their last 9 games and has averaged only 3 runs and a measly 6 hits per game during this 9-game stretch. The Padres are off of a loss but haven't lost back to back games in 2 weeks. Look for them to bounce back off of Sunday's loss as they improve to 6-2 in Perdomo's road starts this season. 8* SAN DIEGO |
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08-09-16 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 12 | 7-5 | Push | 0 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #925/926 - Daytime Dominator - 8* OVER 12 in Colorado vs Texas @ 3:10 ET Tuesday - Riding the momentum of scoring 3 runs in the 9th to steal a win last night, the Rangers bats should have a big game this afternoon. Texas didn't hit well last night but they faced a tough pitcher and the Rangers will get right back on track at the plate here after averaging 13 hits per game in their 3 prior victories. The Rockies Tyler Chatwood will prove to be no match for Texas. He has a 5.72 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his home starts this season and was hit hard in his most recent outing at home. Even though it's been years since he faced Texas, the fact is that seeing Rangers uniforms stepping into the batters box is likely to put pressure on him. Chatwood has an 11.17 ERA in his 3 career starts against Texas. The Rangers will have AJ Griffin on the mound for this one and he has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts. In the thin air of Colorado and the fact this one is an afternoon game, the ball should be jumping off the bats this afternoon. The over is 9-3 in Rockies games with a money line of -100 to -125 this season. Also, the over is 9-5 in the Rangers last 14 games against teams with a losing record. Yesterday's game was a pitchers duel between two solid southpaws but today's match-up is an afternoon game featuring two very hittable right-handers so don't let the big number scare you here. This should be a slugfest type of game. 8* OVER in Colorado |
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08-08-16 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #955/956 - Slugfest Smash - 10* Top Play - OVER 8.5 or 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET Monday - This is a rematch of a pitching match-up in Cincinnati on Wednesday. That game got "stuck" at 9 runs after a fast start but this one should easily get over the total as these lineups get a quick "second look" at hurlers they just faced last week. Cody Reed of the Reds and Michael Wacha of the Cardinals combined to allow 14 hits in their 10 innings of work and strikeouts were few and far between. In other words, they certainly weren't fooling a lot of hitters. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Reed's road starts this season and he is 0-6 on the season with a 7.30 ERA .The over is 15-6 in Wacha's starts this year and he has struggled more at home than on the road. In his starts in St Louis, Wacha has compiled a 4.67 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP! The over is 8-2-1 in the Cardinals last 11 games and though the Cards were held to 3 runs yesterday, they previously had scored at least 5 runs in 6 of their last 10 games. St Louis is hosting a Reds team that has averaged 5.3 runs per game in their last 18 games. The over is 24-13 in Cincinnati's divisional games this season and the over is 11-3 in their Monday games. The over is 18-11 in Cardinals games against left-handed starters this season. The Reds bullpen has a 5.01 ERA this season and the Cards pen has an ERA up in the range of 4.00 in home games. 10* OVER in St Louis Monday |
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08-08-16 | Astros v. Twins OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #961/962 - Total Dominator - 8* OVER 9 in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET Monday - As a road favorite of -125 to -150, the Astros have gone 11-4 to the over this season and 21-9 to the over the last three seasons combined. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 10-3 this season and 22-10 the last 3 seasons combined. Minnesota comes into this game having gone over the total in 9 straight games! Also, the over is 6-3 this season and 29-13 the last three seasons combined when the Twins are a home dog of +125 to +150. The over is an incredible 44-19 in Minny's night games this season. Tyler Duffey gets the start for the Twins and he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 12 of his last 14 starts as his season-long struggles have continued. The Astros will have Colin McHugh on the mound for this one and the right-hander was roughed up by Minnesota the last time he faced them (in early May). Also, McHugh's most recent road start saw him give up 8 earned runs on 10 hits in less than 2 innings of work. 8* OVER in Minnesota Monday |
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08-08-16 | Rays +135 v. Blue Jays | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #959 - Underdog Shocker - 8* Tampa Bay Rays Money Line +135 @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET Monday - The biggest knock on the Rays is that they often struggle to score runs. However, prior to yesterday's loss, Tampa Bay had gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and the Rays averaged 6 runs per game in the 7 victories. Today the Rays match-up with R.A. Dickey and they are familiar with the Blue Jays hurler. Tampa Bay has gotten to the Jays knuckler for 8 runs (7 earned) on 14 hits (including 4 homers) in his last 2 starts against them which have spanned only 11 innings. Overall, Dickey is coming into this start off of a strong start in his most recent outing but previously he had given up 17 earned runs in his last 3 starts even though they spanned less than 15 innings. I do not expect Dickey to be able to outduel Jake Odorizzi here. The Rays right-hander has pitched at least 6 innings in each of his last three starts and has not allowed a single run in any of the three starts. Pure and utter dominance for Odorizzi who also has enjoyed success against Toronto with just 4 earned runs allowed in 17 and 2/3 innings in his 3 starts against the Blue Jays this season. The Jays are averaging just 2.4 runs per game in their last 8 games. That said, there is tremendous underdog line value here with the Rays. 8* TAMPA BAY money line Monday |
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08-07-16 | Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #929/930 - Sunday Night Game of the Month - 10* Top Play OVER 7 or 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET Sunday - Saw some early 7's on this game but it quickly jumped to a 7.5 and that is absolutely justified as there should be plenty of offense in this one after yesterday's 3-0 win for the Dodgers. The Red Sox are 2-1 to the over this season after getting shutout but the lone under was a game which totaled 9 runs. In other words, with a low total like we're seeing on this Sunday night match-up, the over would be a perfect 3-0 in Red Sox games off of a shutout loss. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Brandon McCarthy. The right-hander came back strong in his early outings after returning from Tommy John surgery. However, "the fade" has since already begun. McCarthy has a 7.71 ERA in his last two starts with a 2.00 WHIP as walks allowed and giving up big hits have both been problems for the righty. David Price gets the call for the Red Sox and though he is a "big name" pitcher that gets plenty of respect from the odds makers as well as the betting markets, the lefty hasn't been himself of late. Price has given up at least 3 earned runs in 6 of his last 8 starts. During this 8-game stretch the southpaw has allowed 69 hits in 51 innings of work! Price has a 4.41 ERA over his past 8 starts but, as you can see by those hits, he has been fortunate the damage hasn't been worse. As a home dog of up to +125, the Dodgers have gone 3-0 to the over this season. Yesterday's win was the Dodgers 10th shutout win of the season. So far this year, when off of a shutout win, the next game has stayed under just 3 of 9 times. 10* OVER in Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-07-16 | Angels +115 v. Mariners | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #923 - Underdog Shocker - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels +115 @ Seattle @ 4:10 ET Sunday - The Angels blew a 6-2 lead in yesterday's game and will be looking to bounce back in the series finale with the Mariners. They certainly have the right guy on the mound to get the job done. Matt Shoemaker will be on the hill for the Angels. The right-hander has been on an extended fantastic stretch. Shoemaker's consistency has led the way as he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 12 of his last 15 starts. Shoemaker has a 2.85 ERA during this stretch and has averaged nearly 7 innings per start and about 7 strikeouts per start as well with an average of only 1 walk per outing. I expect more of the same here at Seattle. The Angels have won 3 straight games against left-handed starters and the Mariners will have lefty James Paxton on the mound. The M's southpaw is off of a solid outing at home versus Boston but in his 3 prior home starts, Paxton was rocked for 15 runs (14 earned) in the less than 16 innings spanning the 3 starts. As a small home fave of up to -125, the Mariners have gone 5-10 this season and 22-35 the past three seasons combined. I am forecasting Seattle to drop to an ugly 4-14 in Sunday games this season as, in addition to struggling on Sundays, the Mariners simply haven't had many sweeps this season. Series sweeps are always tough to come by and I believe Shoemaker will make sure of that here. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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08-07-16 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 10-2 | Win | 107 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Earliest Cash - 8* OVER 9.5 runs in Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 2:10 ET - James Shields gets the start for the White Sox and he is coming off of a rough start. There has not been a lot of "up and down" from Shields in terms of start to start success or failure. In fact, the veteran righty has been about as streaky as you can get! He pitched well early this season until his final start of May. At that point he got rocked in 4 straight starts. Shields followed that up with 6 straight solid starts but then he got rocked at Detroit in his most recent start. In other words, another down cycle is quite likely to be underway! Look for the Orioles to rough him up today. Baltimore will have Dylan Bundy on the mound today. Though he has pitched well at home he did get roughed up in his only road start this season with 4 runs allowed on 5 hits and 4 walks in only 3 and 1/3 innings of work. Look for more of the same here and, before yesterday's game stayed under the total, 5 of the White Sox last 6 games had gone over the total. The over is 14-7 in Orioles road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 18-11 in Baltimore's day games this season. The White Sox have played 28 games this season that had a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and only 9 of those 28 resulted in an under. The big number on today's total is absolutely justified. 8* OVER in Chicago White Sox |
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08-07-16 | Reds +174 v. Pirates | 7-3 | Win | 174 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #901 - Earliest Cash - 8* Cincinnati Reds +175 @ Pittsburgh @ 1:35 ET Sunday - Simply put, the Pirates are over-priced here. Prior to winning the first two games in this series, Pittsburgh had lost 5 of their last 6. They'll have Gerrit Cole on the mound but they are 0-7 in the 7 starts he has made against Cincinnati in his career. The Reds will have Daniel Straily on the mound and Cincy is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. That means we've got angles that are combined 11-0 working in favor of a big dog Sunday. I won't pass this up! Straily has a 2.50 ERA in his last 6 starts and has given up only 24 hits in the nearly 40 innings spanning those 3 outings! Also, in his career against Pittsburgh, Straily has given up only 5 earned runs on just 11 hits in 18+ innings of work. Reds are a dangerous dog here plain and simple. 8* CINCINNATI |
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08-07-16 | Mets v. Tigers +118 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #926 - Earliest Cash - 8* Detroit Tigers +120 vs New York Mets @ 1:10 ET Sunday - The Tigers won again yesterday to improve to 10-1 in their last 11 games. Not only that, they are now 12-4 in interleague games this season. The Mets have been heading the other direction with 8 losses in their last 11 games. The Tigers are the much better hitting team and, although Jacob deGrom has been pitching well overall, the Mets righty did allow 5 earned runs on 10 hits in less than 4 innings of work in his most recent road start. Anibal Sanchez gets this home start for Detroit and he has been a different pitcher since the All Star Break. In his two home starts since the break, Sanchez has given up only 4 earned runs on 13 hits while striking out 12 in the 12 innings spanning these two outings. Home dog value here. 8* DETROIT |
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08-06-16 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 15-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #959/960 - Slugfest Smash - 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona vs Milwaukee @ 8:10 ET Saturday - Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the over was 7-1-1 in the Diamondbacks 9 prior games and, based on Saturday's pitching match-up we should see the hot hitting in Arizona games resume tonight. Before diving into the pitchers, note that the Brewers are 12-4 to the over in Saturday games this season and the Dbacks are 10-3 to the over in home games where their money line is -100 to -125. Milwaukee will have Matt Garza on the mound tonight and the Brewers are 0-6 this season in his road starts as he has a 5.93 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his starts away from home. He is again matched up with Patrick Corbin (just as he was on July 26th) and that game went over the total and the rematch should as well as these lineups are getting a quick 'second look' at these hurlers. Arizona's Corbin has given up at least 4 earned runs in each of his last seven starts and is winless during this stretch while compiling a 7.08 ERA. Also, Corbin is an incredibly poor 0-7 with a 7.23 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in his home starts this season. There is simply every reason to believe that both of these hurlers will get rocked Saturday evening. The over is 15-6-1 in Corbin's starts this season and this includes 7 in a row! I expect that over streak to reach a perfect 8-0 tonight. 10* OVER in Arizona Saturday. |
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08-06-16 | Cubs v. A's OVER 7.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #977/978 - Daytime Dominator - 8* OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:05 ET Saturday - After a shutout loss at the hands of the White Sox on July 26th, the Cubs have certainly turned things around. With yesterday's big win at Oakland, the Cubs are now 7-2 their last 9 games and have averaged 5.7 runs per game during this hot streak. The A's have been at the other end of the spectrum as they have lost 6 of their last 7 games. The Athletics have allowed an averaged of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch and having Sonny Gray on the mound is unlikely to help matters for Oakland this afternoon. Gray went 2-4 with a 7.79 ERA in the month of July and his struggles at home go much further back than just last month. Gray has given up 34 earned runs in his last 7 home starts dating back to early May. The Athletics right-hander has compiled a 7.78 ERA during this rough three month stretch! The over is 12-5-1 in Gray's last 18 starts. Jake Arrieta of the Cubs is certainly an "ace" but he has been much stronger at home than on the road this season. While Arrieta has not allowed a single homer at Wrigley Field he has given up 8 in his 11 road starts. The wind will be blowing out in this afternoon match-up in Oakland and the ball will carry a little better too since it's a day game. Amazingly, Arrieta has given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 road starts. I expect more of the same here. The over is 13-5 this season in Cubs road games where they are a favorite of -175 or greater. In the A's 46 games against teams with a winning record this season, they have had just 17 unders. 8* OVER in Oakland Saturday. |
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08-06-16 | Indians v. Yankees OVER 8 | 5-2 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #963/964 - Earliest Cash - 7* OVER 8 in New York Yankees vs Cleveland Indians @ 1:05 ET Saturday - With yesterday's 13-7 game, the wild results continue for the Indians as they have now allowed 10 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games! The Tribe are now on a 5-0 run to the over and those games have averaged a total of 16.4 runs per game! The Yankees are on a 6-1 run to the over and their starter, C.C. Sabathia, is unlikely to enjoy success Saturday. The veteran southpaw is a former Indian and the lefty has compiled a 5.65 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts against Cleveland. Sabathia comes into this start struggling badly as he has given up 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 8 starts! Not surprisingly, only 2 of Sabathia's last 8 starts have stayed under the total. Though the Indians Corey Kluber has impressive overall stats he has had some struggles away from home and that is evidenced by his 5.34 ERA in his last 5 road outings. The over is 5-1 in Kluber's last 6 starts. The over is 26-17 in Indians games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is on a long-term 21-8 run in Yankees games where they are a home dog in a range of +125 to +150. 7* OVER in NY Yankees Saturday. |
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08-05-16 | Blue Jays -134 v. Royals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #921 - Dominator Crusher - 7* Toronto Blue Jays Money Line -135 @ Kansas City @ 8:15 ET - As I have said many times before, Francisco Liriano is a big game pitcher. Not only is this his debut as a member of the Blue Jays, it is also a chance to go up against the defending champs. There is a reason this line is a bit "pricey" considering that the Jays are on the road. The fact is that Toronto's newly acquired southpaw should enjoy plenty of success here. The Royals simply are struggling miserably at the plate of late. Kansas City has been held to 3 runs or less in 11 of their last 12 games! The Royals are averaging just 2.25 runs per game during this 2-week stretch of futility on offense and have now lost 10 of their last 13 games. Toronto, conversely, has won 8 of their last 11 games and averaged 4 runs per game during this stretch. Though this is certainly not "hot hitting" it is evident that the Jays are doing much better at the plate than the Royals are. Also, Liriano is reunited with battery mate Russell Martin as the two were teammates in Pittsburgh and the Pirates southpaw has a 2.92 ERA in his career when it Martin behind the plate. The Royals will have Dillon Gee on the mound tonight and he is 2-5 with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP in his seven starts this season. Kansas City is 5-13 in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record and the Royals are 5-10 this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Toronto is 10-5 this season as a road favorite of -125 to -150. The Blue Jays are well worth the price here considering the way the Royals are slumping, the fact the Jays are hot, and the key factor that this a huge pitching mismatch. 7* TORONTO money line Friday |
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08-05-16 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #919/920 - AL West Total of the Year - 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in Houston vs Texas @ 8:10 ET Friday - This is a battle of southpaws here with Dallas Keuchel facing Martin Perez and both lineups will be helped by the fact that they just faced a left-handed starting pitcher yesterday as well. The big keys to this play are the fact that Perez has been struggling badly and Keuchel has struggled all season against the Rangers. Versus Texas this season, Keuchel has gone 0-3 with 17 earned runs allowed on 32 hits in only 19 and 1/3 innings spanning three starts. As for the Rangers Perez, he is off of a rare, strong start. Prior to holding Kansas City to just one earned run in seven innings, Perez had given up 29 runs (22 earned) on 34 hits in 21 and 2/3 innings spanning his four prior starts. As you can see, there is plenty of reason to believe that both starting pitchers will struggle this evening in this divisional battle. Neither lineup has been hitting the ball particularly well of late but the odds makers knew what they were doing when they hung an 8.5 on this game even though it involves a "big name pitcher" like Keuchel. By the way, the Rangers are hitting .286 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 1st out of all 30 teams. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 starts Perez has made against AL opponents. Also, heading into yesterday's game with Toronto and southpaw J.A. Happ, the over was 4-1 in Astros games against left-handed starters since the All Star Break. Though yesterday's game stayed under, they will enjoy plenty of success facing the struggling Perez tonight. 10* OVER in Houston Friday |
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08-05-16 | Mets v. Tigers -114 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #926 - Earliest Cash - 8* Detroit Tigers Money Line -115 vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET Friday - This line has dropped from an opener of -135 down to a -115 and this is offering fantastic line value on the Tigers. Detroit will have Justin Verlander on the mound and he has an extra day of rest under his belt after a complete game win versus the Astros Saturday. He had a fantastic July with a 4-0 mark and a 1.69 ERA in his 6 July starts. It was no fluke as he was tough to hit as Verlander allowed only 26 hits in 43 innings and he struck out 48 batters! Look for this type of domination to continue Friday as the Mets are not familiar with him as they have not faced him in over 5 years. Noah Syndergaard gets the start for the Mets and his pitch count may be limited today as he has thrown 232 pitches in his last two starts. He's facing a Tigers team that is off of a loss yesterday but that previously won 8 straight and averaged 7 runs per game. Also, Syndergaard has given up 20 hits in less than 18 innings spanning his 3 starts since the All Star break. The Mets are off of a win yesterday but previously had lost 7 of their last 9 games. New York is averaging only 3.5 runs per game in their last 13 games. The Mets have a losing record in interleague action the past three seasons while the Tigers are 10-4 against the National League this season. 8* DETROIT money line Friday |
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08-04-16 | White Sox +126 v. Tigers | 6-3 | Win | 126 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #963 - Daytime Dominator - 8* Chicago White Sox +125 @ Detroit @ 1:10 ET Thursday - The Tigers have been hot and the White Sox certainly have not but there is a huge pitching edge here that simply can not be ignored. The ChiSox will have Jose Quintana on the mound and he is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA in his last 5 starts. The Tigers are bringing back Jordan Zimmermann from the disabled list and he had a low ERA in his two rehab starts but was hit at a .333 clip in those two AAA outings. Zimmermann has a 5.40 ERA in his home games this season and gave up 11 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work in his last two starts before going on the DL. He has a good career record against the White Sox but they did get to him for 6 runs (4 earned) the last time they faced him which was earlier this season. Quintana shut out the Tigers the last time he faced them and I look for another dominating effort from him today. Even though the White Sox lost Quintana's most recent start he pitched very well and note that the ChiSox had won each of his four prior starts. Look for them to avoid the sweep here. 8* CHICAGO WHITE SOX Thurday |
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08-04-16 | Giants v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #953/954 - Total Crusher - 7* UNDER 8 in Philadelphia vs San Francisco @ 1:05 ET Thursday - In the months of June and July, Vincent Velasquez has a combined 2.88 ERA and 4 of his last 6 starts have stayed under the total. The Giants have not faced him before so that is a big edge for the fire-balling right-hander. The Phillies will also struggle at the plate today as Matt Moore is a tough lefty. The southpaw was recently acquired by San Francisco from Tampa Bay and Moore has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 9 starts! 8 of those 9 outings were quality starts and the Phillies (the recent game against Madison Bumgarner - strange!) notwithstanding, generally struggle against left-handed pitchers. The under is 13-9 this season in Phils games against left-handed starters. As a home dog of +100 to +125 this season, the Phillies have gone 9-4 to the under. The first two games of this series did go over the total but previously SF was on a 13-4 run to the under. As for the Phillies, before this series with the G-men, the under was 15-7-1 in the Phils last 23 games. 7* UNDER in Philadelphia |
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08-04-16 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #951/952 - Top Total - 10* OVER 9 in Cincinnati vs St Louis @ 12:35 ET - Yesterday I used this play as my free pick and the game was 4-2 after just ONE inning! Inexplicably, the game did not go over the total. It ended up being a push at 9 runs. I expect to get some payback today as both of these starting pitchers are likely to get roughed up. Mike Leake gets the start for the Cardinals and he has allowed 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Coincidentally, Leake also gave up 6 earned runs the last time he faced the Reds which was in Cincinnati less than 2 months ago. Cincy will have Brandon Finnegan on the mound and the southpaw is off of a strong start at San Diego. However, prior to the solid effort versus the Padres, Finnegan had given up 21 earned runs on 24 hits and 12 walks in just 17 and 1/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. Each of those 4 starts went over the total and each of Leake's last 3 starts went over the total as well. The over is 7-3 in Finnegan's home starts this season and 7-4 in Leake's road starts this season. The Cards lineup has the edge of facing a southpaw starter for the 2nd straight game and the over is 18-10 in their games against left-handers this season. The over is also 31-18 in Cardinals road games this season. As for the Reds, the over is 9-1 in their Thursday games this season and 23-10 in their divisional games. 10* OVER in Cincinnati Thursday |
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08-03-16 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9 | 13-5 | Win | 102 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Over Easy - 8* OVER 9 in Cleveland vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET Wednesday - With yesterday's game easily soaring over the total just like game one of this series did, there is no denying that the lineups are both hot in this match-up. The Twins are averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Indians are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 5 games. Based on the pitching match-up for Wednesday, the hot hitting should continue. Tyler Duffey gets the start for Minnesota and he is winless in his 3 starts since the All Star break and has compiled a 13.51 ERA and a 2.80 WHIP during this stretch. Duffey will be opposed by Trevor Bauer of the Indians and the right-hander is also winless since the All Star break with a 5.87 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in his 3 starts since then. Only 4 of Duffey's 17 starts have stayed under the total this season. The over is in an incredible 41-19 in Minnesota's night games this season. The over is a stellar 30-16 in Indians home games this year. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs for the Tribe, the over has gone 10-5 the past three seasons. The Twins are hitting the ball very well but their bullpen ERA on the road is among the worst in the league. This shapes up to be another wild one Wednesday as Duffey is averaging only 4 and 2/3 innings per start in his last 11 starts so the Twins bullpen could likely be exposed again here. 8* OVER in Cleveland Wednesday. |
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08-03-16 | Brewers -138 v. Padres | 3-12 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #905 - Daytime Dominator - 7* Milwaukee Brewers -140 @ San Diego @ 3:40 ET Wednesday - Certainly the Brewers do not have an impressive road record on the season but they are 6-1 in road games with Junior Guerra on the mound. The Milwaukee right-hander has pitched phenomenally well so far this season. In his last 7 starts, Guerra has been particularly strong as he has given up just 8 earned runs on only 28 hits in 49 innings of work. That equates to a 1.47 ERA and allowing an average of only 4 hits in 7 innings of work per start his last 7 starts. Guerra already shut down the Padres when he faced them earlier this season in May. San Diego will have Edwin Jackson on the mound and the right-hander has faded start by start since he had a successful outing in his first start right after the All Star break. In his next outing Jackson gave up 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out just 1 in 6 innings of work. In Jackson's next start (and most recent), he was rocked for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. Also, the last time Jackson faced the Brewers he was hit hard and gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Milwaukee, with yesterday's win, has won 7 of their last 9. The Padres, with yesterday's loss, have lost 10 of their last 15 games. Yesterday was the 4th time in their last 5 games that San Diego was held to 2 runs or less. The Padres were held to just 6 hits yesterday and that marked the 8th time in their last 11 games that they have been held to 6 hits or less. San Diego is 9-25 in day games this season and an ugly 5-12 as a home dog of +125 to +150 this year. 7* MILWAUKEE BREWERS Money Line Wednesday. |
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08-03-16 | Marlins +174 v. Cubs | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #901 - Earliest Cash - 6* Miami Marlins +170 @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET Wednesday - Taking a look at all of Miami's road series this season, they have never been swept in a series of 3 games or more. In fact, taking a look at all their home series as well, a home sweep in a series of 3 games or more has happened just once this season. That said, the odds are certainly in their favor here as they look to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Cubs at Wrigley Field Wednesday afternoon. The Cubs John Lackey has a 5.70 ERA in his last 7 starts. As you can see, those are hardly "Lackey-like" numbers and I expect his struggles to continue this afternoon. Lackey's sub-par stretch all began with a tough outing at Miami in late June where the veteran right-hander was rocked for 7 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings. That said, the Marlins hitters will be stepping up to the plate with plenty of confidence this afternoon. On the mound for Miami is Tom Koehler this afternoon. The right-hander is back in top form again as he has given up just 1 earned run on only 5 hits in the 14 innings spanning his last two starts. He has struck out 10 and walked just 2 during this strong stretch. The Marlins have won 3 of Koehler's last 4 starts. The Cubs won Lackey's last start but previously had lost in 6 of his last 7 starts. The Cubs are simply over-priced here against a formidable opponent who has not been swept on the road in a series of 3 games or more this entire season! By the way, the Cubs have won 3 straight games but have not won four straight since June 1st through 4th - a span of nearly two months without a 4-game winning streak. I am grabbing the big dog value here. 6* MIAMI MARLINS Money Line Wednesday |
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08-02-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #959/960 - Total Dominator - 8* OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET Tuesday - Both Brandon McCarthy of the Dodgers and Jon Gray of the Rockies have put up some impressive numbers this season. However, McCarthy gave up 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his last visit to hitter-friendly Coors Field. Also, Gray gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings the last time he faced the Dodgers in Colorado. This play tonight is all about the thin air of Colorado and, though the wind is a little tricky to call as to the exact timing of the wind shifts, it does look like the wind will be favorable for the hitters for much of the duration of this game. The Dodgers are averaging 6 runs per game since the All Star break and have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of their last 6 road games. They are coming off of a home series against the Diamondbacks where the Dodgers averaged 8.3 runs per game. The Rockies have won 9 of their last 11 games and are averaging 6.2 runs per game at home this season. These pitchers just matched up in early July but that was at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. The rematch will feature plenty of fireworks on offense as these lineups are very familiar with these starting pitchers and the conditions should be ideal tonight for plenty of power hitting at Coors Field. The over is 10-3 in the Dodgers last 13 games. 8* OVER in Colorado Tuesday |
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08-02-16 | White Sox +145 v. Tigers | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #971 - Underdog Shocker - 8* Chicago White Sox Money Line +140 @ Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET Tuesday - This is a value spot. Anibal Sanchez has struggled all season for the Tigers while James Shields has certainly turned things around since an inauspicious debut with the White Sox. The Tigers have lost 11 straight starts that Sanchez has made. Overall, Detroit has lost 13 of the last 14 starts made by Sanchez. He certainly can't blame it all on a lack of run support as the fact is simply that Sanchez has not pitched well at all. The Detroit right-hander has a 7.13 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP on the season. His counterpart tonight is Shields and the veteran righty has turned things around in a hurry. Shields has given up 2 earned runs or less in 6 straight starts! His ERA during this red hot stretch is a sparkling 1.71 and he's averaged 7 innings per start. Both teams were off yesterday but the Tigers did get a big shutout win Sunday. That is significant because Detroit is an ugly 1-3 this season (and 9-14 long-term) when off of a shutout win. Also, when playing after a day off, the Tigers are 4-7 this season. The substantial starting pitching edge combined with the big dog line value makes the ChiSox well worth a play here. 8* Chicago White Sox Money Line |
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08-02-16 | Giants v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 8-13 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #951/952 - Earliest Cash - 8* UNDER 7.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:05 ET Tuesday - Madison Bumgarner is seeking revenge for a 3-2 loss to the Phillies in late June. That game easily stayed under the total and I expect more of the same Tuesday. Each of Bumgarner's last 4 starts have stayed under the total and, overall, it has been a run of 11-3 to the under in his last 14 starts. The Giants southpaw has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 15 of his last 19 starts. He'll be opposed by the Phillies Zach Eflin Tuesday. Eflin is off of a rare rough outing. Prior to a poor start at Miami, the Phils right-hander had compiled a stellar 2.08 ERA in his last 7 starts. At home this season Eflin has a 2.61 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP and all 3 starts have stayed under the total. The under is 11-3 in Phillies Tuesday games this season and Philadelphia is 13-8 to the under in their games against left-handed starters this season. The under is 15-7-1 in the Phils last 23 games overall. As for the Giants, they also have been trending under as well. San Francisco is 13-4 to the under in their last 17 games overall. Both these clubs were off yesterday and the Giants are 7-3 to the under this season when playing after a day off. Also, the Giants are off of a win Sunday and the under is 38-22 this season in SF games when they are off of a victory. 8* UNDER 7.5 in Philadelphia |
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08-01-16 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #907/908 - Over Easy - 8* OVER 7 in Tampa Bay vs Kansas City @ 7:10 ET - After opening up at a 7.5 this total dropped down to a 7 and this is offering solid line value for the over. The Rays will have Chris Archer on the mound for this one and he has given up 14 runs (13 earned) on 20 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts against the Royals. Kansas City will have Danny Duffy on the mound for this one and the southpaw has given up 5 earned runs on 14 hits in only 11 innings of work in his last two starts against Tampa Bay. The left-hander has seen each of his last 3 road starts go over the total and only 2 of those 3 outings were quality outings for Duffy. The over is 3-1 in the Rays Archer's 4 career starts against the Royals. Though Archer pitched well in his two most recent starts, those were against a pair of National League teams so there was some unfamiliarity for the hitters there which of course is a big edge for the hurler. In 4 of his last 5 starts against American League teams, Archer has allowed at least 4 earned runs. The Royals have played 10 games with a posted total of 7 or less this season and only 3 of those stayed under the total. The Rays have played 11 Monday games so far this season and only 2 of the 11 resulted in an under! The pitching match-up is conducive to some big runs in this one and yet we have a low total to work with. *8* OVER 7 in Tampa Bay |
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08-01-16 | Yankees v. Mets -105 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #916 - Revenge Rout - 10* Top Play New York Mets -105 vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - The Yankees lost again yesterday for their fourth straight defeat. The Yanks are on a 4-6 run and have been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of those 10 games. The Yankees are likely to struggle again at the plate today as they are unfamiliar with Logan Verrett. The Mets right-hander has a 3.44 ERA in his last 3 starts and also has a 3.66 ERA in his 3 home starts this season. He'll be opposed by C.C. Sabathia. The Yankees southpaw had a tough July as he compiled a 5.93 ERA. In fact, before a win in his last start, the Yanks had lost 4 of the last 5 starts that Sabathia had made. The lefty had a 7.46 ERA in his 5 starts prior to notching a victory at Houston in his final start of July. The Mets have some experience against the veteran left-hander and Sabathia has given up 14 hits in less than 12 innings of work in his last two visits to Citi Field. Also, the southpaw got rocked for 7 earned runs in 5 innings of work the last time he hosted the Mets. Sabathia is facing a Mets team that got back on track with a 6-4 win yesterday. The Mets are 5-2 this season in home games where they have a money line of -100 to -125. Also, the Mets are 7-3 this season and 31-15 the last 3 seasons in their Monday games. The Yankees are 5-14 as a road dog of +100 to +125 this season! I expect the Yanks to drop to 5-9 in interleague action with another loss this evening. 10* NEW YORK METS Monday. |
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07-31-16 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 8 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #979/980 - Sunday Night Game of the Month - *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:05 ET Sunday - Felix Hernandez certainly is still worthy of his "ace status" based on his career numbers but certainly his current form is not that of an ace. Hernandez has a 7.23 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in his last 3 starts and that includes a pair of very un-Felix like outings in his two starts since the All Star break. The over is 3-0 in the last three starts Hernandez has made and he'll be opposed tonight by a Cubs hurler who is unlikely to enjoy success. Brian Matusz most recent outing in the bigs was out of the bullpen on May 17th as a member of the Orioles and it just so happens that he faced the Mariners in that game. Seattle got to him for 4 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work and he had a rough 2016 at the MLB level in his limited action out of the pen. Matusz gave up 3 homers in 6 innings. The Cubs left-hander has struggled against right-handed batters throughout his career and he will face a ton of dangerous right-handed lumber in this match-up with Seattle. Even with yesterday's under the over is 11-5 in Mariners interleague games this season. The last three starts that the Cubs Matusz has made at the MLB level saw him allow 12 earned runs on 27 hits in less than 14 innings of work. He is likely to get pounded again tonight as the Mariners build off of yesterday's win. The M's have won 6 of their last 10 games and averaged 6 runs per game in those 6 victories. The Cubs, before being held to just 1 run yesterday, had averaged 5 runs per game during the 6-3 stretch that preceded the defeat. *10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs Sunday |
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07-31-16 | Reds v. Padres OVER 9 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #963/964 - Daytime Dominator - *8* OVER 8.5 or 9 in San Diego vs Cincinnati @ 4:40 ET Sunday - This total opened at a 9 which, of course, is an unusually high number for a game at Petco Park. Not surprisingly there has already been some downward movement early this morning as this total has dropped to an 8.5 in many books. The fact is that the 9 was absolutely justified here. First off, though Petco Park is known as a pitchers park, the ball does carry better in day games than it does at night. Secondly, the pitching match-up here has "over" written all "over" it. The Padres will start Paul Clemens and he has already allowed 7 homers in just 15 innings at the MLB level! He also has 8 walks in his 10 innings of work in his 2 home starts. He's unlikely to enjoy success against a Reds lineup filled with power hitters. As for the Reds, they'll have Homer Bailey back in the mix. It will be his first start since very early last season in April. He's been rehabbing since Tommy John surgery and, based on his AAA stats, he's certainly still a "work in progress" as he has had just 1 win in his 7 starts at the AAA level in the minors this season. he gave up 7 homers in those 7 outings and, overall, was hit at a .304 clip! Last night's game was a tight 2-1 battle but today's should play out in much different fashion. The Reds faced a southpaw last night but the over is 45-27 in Reds games against right-handed starters this season. *8* OVER in San Diego Sunday. |
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07-31-16 | Royals v. Rangers OVER 10 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - Over Easy - *7* OVER 10 in Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals @ 3:05 ET Sunday - The Rangers acquired Lucas Harrell from the Braves recently and now he makes his debut in hitter-friendly Texas and faces a tough American League lineup. Keep in mind that Harrell's last two seasons with an AL club (Houston) he went 6-20 with a 6.13 ERA in 2013 and 2014 combined! The Royals have to have concerns about their starting pitcher today too. Kansas City will have Dillon Gee on the mound and the right-hander was hit at a .329 clip with the Mets last season and things have not really improved. This season with the Royals, Gee has been hit at a .307 clip and he's been quite fortunate that his ERA (4.54) is not higher. He is winless with a 5.82 ERA in his day games this year where teams have hit .347 against him. This is no fluke as last season he went winless with a 9.35 ERA in his two daytime starts and teams hit .395 against him. The over is 4-0 in Gee's last four starts and the over went a perfect 2-0 in Harrell's home starts with the Braves this season. Also, the over is 9-3 in the Rangers last 12 games against teams with a losing record. *7* OVER in Texas Sunday. |
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07-31-16 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #967/968 - Earliest Cash - *6* UNDER 7 in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 1:10 ET Sunday - I got burned with the under in yesterday's game (was 3-2 Rays entering the bottom of the 7th) but I won't hesitate to come right back with it here. Yesterday's game was ridiculous in that there were only 12 hits in the game but 5 were homers and some late round-trippers (bottom of 7th for Rays and top of 9th for Yanks) is what did me in. The key today is that the Yankees face another tough lefty, Blake Snell, and they have struggled against left-handed pitchers all season. Snell has produced three straight quality starts and comes into this game with a 1.93 ERA in his last three outings. He'll be opposed by the Yankees Michael Pineda who has allowed just 1 earned run on 10 hits while striking out 16 in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts. The under is 6-0 in Pineda's last 6 starts and 4-0 in Snell's last 4 starts for a combined 10-0 mark I'll gladly test here. Even with yesterday's fluke result the over is only 17-33 in Rays home games this season. Also, the under is 6-1 this season in Yankees road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. *6* UNDER in Tampa Bay Sunday. |
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07-30-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 6-5 | Win | 105 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #919/920 - Over Easy - 6* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET - Some extra bullpen work was involved in last night's game as it went 12 innings in a surprisingly low-scoring 2-1 Twins win yesterday. Extra bullpen work never hurts when you're looking at an "over" for the next day and that is the case here. With Miguel Gonzalez on the mound for the White Sox and matched up with Tom Milone of the Twins this one has the makings of a high-scoring battle. Gonzalez has one good career start against Minnesota but in the other two starts he gave up 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work! The Twins Milone got rocked at Boston in his most recent start. The southpaw has seen 7 of his 10 starts go over the total this season and I look for another one here. Milone has given up 9 earned runs on 17 hits in the 7 innings spanning his last two starts against the White Sox. He was unable to make it out of the 4th frame in either start. Even with yesterday's under, the over is 38-19 (67%) in Twins night games this season. Also, the over is 23-13 in Minny's games against teams with a losing record this season and 10-5 in their Saturday games so far this year. The White Sox are 5-2 to the over in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and the ChiSox are 10-6 to the over in Saturday games this year. 6* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota |
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07-30-16 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 | 3-6 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Total Dominator - 6* UNDER 8 in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees @ 6:10 ET - With yesterday's under the Yankees are now 13-1 to the under in their last 14 games. Facing southpaw Drew Smyly is unlikely to help matters for the Yanks as they have struggled against left-handed pitching all season. The Yankees .381 slugging percentage against southpaws ranks them DEAD LAST in the American League so far this season. Smyly is 2-0 in his 4 career starts against the Yanks and he has compiled a 2.08 ERA and a stellar 0.81 WHIP in those 4 outings. Smyly is off of a quality start at Oakland where he allowed just 1 earned run in 6 innings of work. The Rays are on a 17-4-1 run to the under and, even with yesterday's 5-1 win, Tampa has averaged just 2.5 runs per game in their last 6 games. They'll face the Yanks Nathan Eovaldi this evening and the right-hander has a 2.25 ERA in his two starts since the All Star break. Also, Eovaldi held the Rays to just one earned run in 6 innings in his lone start against them this season. The under is 33-16 in Tampa Bay's home games this season and I expect the under to improve to a perfect 4-0 in Eovaldi's 4th career start against the Rays. The under is 25-8 in Yankees divisional games this season and 8-2 in their games on artificial turf. 6* UNDER in Tampa Bay |
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07-30-16 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Game #901/902 - Daytime Dominator - 6* OVER 8 in San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - Reynaldo Lopez gets the start for the Nationals in what will be just the 2nd MLB start of his young career. Though he struck out 9 in his first career start, Lopez was also rocked for 6 runs on 10 hits in less than 5 innings of work. He'll be opposed by Jake Peavy of the Giants whom is having trouble with the long ball. Peavy has given up 5 homers in his last two starts and took the loss in each as he's allowed 10 earned runs in the 11 innings of work spanning his pair of starts since the All Star break. The last time he faced the Nats Peavy was rocked for 9 hits and 3 walks which led to 5 earned runs given up in less than 6 innings of work. Washington is 9-5 to the over in Saturday games this season and 20-13 to the over in day games this year. The Giants have played 161 day games the past three seasons combined and only 66 have stayed under the total. The ball does carry better in day games (in comparison with night games) at AT & T Park and the wind will be blowing out this afternoon in SF. 6* OVER in San Francisco |
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07-30-16 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #929/930 - IL Smash - 6* OVER 7.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners @ 2:20 ET - Tremendous line value here with the low total. The fact that the wind is expected to be blowing in at Wrigley Field is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Another reason for the low total is because Jake Arrieta is on the mound. The Cubs right-hander commands respect but he truly has not been the pitcher he was earlier this season. Note that Arrieta is off of a start where he allowed 4 earned runs versus the White Sox. He has now given up 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. Arrieta will be opposed by the Mariners Wade Miley. The Seattle southpaw has struggled throughout this season as evidenced by his 5.23 ERA and he certainly hasn't shown any signs of turning things around. The Mariners are certainly in a "turn around" spot here after getting clobbered 12-1 yesterday. However, Seattle is actually 17-6 to the over the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The over is 11-4 in Mariners interleague games this season. The Cubs are 28-18 to the over in their day games this season. 6* OVER in Chicago Cubs Saturday afternoon. |
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07-30-16 | Orioles +167 v. Blue Jays | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #915 - Earliest Cash - 6* Baltimore Orioles +167 @ Toronto @ 1:05 ET - The Orioles suffered a tight 6-5 loss yesterday and that was their 4th straight defeat. We are well past the midway point of the season and only once this entire year have the O's lost 5 straight games. Look for Baltimore to respond today with Yovani Gallardo on the mound. Even though his full season numbers are not that impressive, the Orioles have won 6 of his last 8 starts as he has pitched better since returning in mid-June. Gallardo is coming off of a solid outing against the Rockies and now faces a team against whom he is a PERFECT 5-0 in his career with a 2.08 ERA. He'll be opposed by the Blue Jays J.A. Happ and his teams' record in his 9 career starts against the Orioles is only 3-6. The Jays lefty has given up 8 earned runs in his last 9 inning versus Baltimore. Also, Toronto may be enjoying their Friday night activities a little too much this season as they are an ugly 5-11 on Saturdays this season. There is tremendous line value here with the underdog Orioles as they are an amazing 12-6 (+13.1 net units) in road games where they are a dog of +150 to +175 the last three seasons combined. Perfect (literally!) BIG DOG spot for the Orioles here and I look for Gallardo to improve to a PERFECT 6-0 in his 6th career start versus the Blue Jays. 6* BALTIMORE |
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07-29-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - Slugfest Smash - 6* OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET Â Friday - Yesterday Minnesota hosted the Orioles and I was involved in that game and suffered a tough loss with the over. The teams combined for 23 hits (no game yesterday had more) and yet it fell short of going over. I expect to get some payback here today as the Twins offense (6 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 games) stays hot while they also see their starting pitcher struggle today. Minny will have Ricky Nolasco on the mound tonight and he is winless in his 9 home starts this season and has compiled a 5.66 ERA in those outings. Since the All Star break Nolasco has walked 6 and struck out just 2 in his two starts. His most recent start was an ugly one at Boston as he gave up 6 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. This season, against the White Sox, Nolasco has given up 14 runs (12 earned) on 18 hits (including 4 homers) in less than 11 innings of work. The ChiSox will have Jose Quintana on the mound and the southpaw allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start against the Twins. The White Sox lefty gave up a pair of homers in that late June outing versus Minnesota. The over is 19-8 in Twins home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 38-18 in Minnesota night games this year. When off of a win, Minny is 25-11 to the over this season. I expect the over to improve to 15-4 in Nolasco's starts this season. 6* OVER in Minnesota |
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07-29-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #965/966 - Over Easy - 6* OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET Friday - Yesterday the Orioles visiting Minnesota and I was involved in that game and suffered a tough loss with the over. The teams combined for 23 hits (no game yesterday had more) and yet it fell short of going over. I expect to get some payback here today as the O's now visit Toronto. As mentioned in yesterday's write-up, I am well aware of Baltimore's lengthy streak of unders. However, don't you think the odds makers are as well? This game opened up at 9.5 and yet quickly dropped to a 9. The 9.5 opener was absolutely justified. 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have gone over the total and the last 4 winning overs have not even been close as all 4 totaled at least 15 runs. The fact is that there is a lot of firepower in both of these lineups. That spells trouble for these hurlers as the Orioles Kevin Gausman is winless in his ten road starts this season with a 4.94 ERA. As for the Blue Jays Marco Estrada, his linescore in his first start after the All Star break didn't look all that bad but he was quite fortunate. He had to work out of numerous jams and he struggled with leaving the ball up in the zone. Groundouts and strikeouts were minimal and the Orioles powerful lineup will do some damage to those mistake pitches tonight. The over is 11-5 in Baltimore's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The Blue Jays are #3 in the majors for runs scored against right-handed pitching. 6* OVER in Toronto |
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07-29-16 | Mariners +159 v. Cubs | 1-12 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #979 - Earliest Cash - 6* Seattle Mariners Money Line +160 @ Chicago Cubs @ 2:20 ET Friday - Fantastic underdog line value here. The Mariners were off yesterday while the Cubs wrapped up a huge series with the crosstown rival White Sox with a big win last night. That was an emotional 2 game sweep at Wrigley Field for the Cubbies after they had lost the first two games on the South Side. That could leave the Cubs a little spent here while Seattle comes into this series fresh off of an off day yesterday. The Mariners should get a boost with Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound as they have won 10 of his last 12 starts! This includes 5 straight M's wins with Iwakuma on the mound and he has a stellar 1.37 ERA in his last three starts. Conversely, the Cubs Jon Lester has had an awful month of July. The Cubs are only 3-3 in Lester's last 6 starts and he has a 10.13 ERA and has been hit at a .323 clip in his 4 July starts! I expect the Mariners to improve to 11-4 in inter-league action this season as they catch the Cubs off of a huge 2-game sweep of the rival White Sox at Wrigley Field. 6* SEATTLE money line Friday |
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07-28-16 | Royals v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #911/912 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Texas vs Kansas City @ 8:05 ET - The Royals finally got their offense back on track even though it took a strange play on a bunt to "open things up" for Kansas City last night. Still it was a much needed 7-5 win for KC who will now look to build on that in this road trip to Texas. The trouble for the Royals is that their pitching staff has given up 6.5 runs per game in their last 8 games and they will have Yordano Ventura on the mound this evening. He is 2-5 with a 5.26 ERA in his road starts this season. Also, he just faced the Rangers in Kansas City on Saturday and that means the Texas sticks are getting a quick "second look" at him. The same holds true for Cole Hamels as the Rangers southpaw just faced the Royals in that Saturday match-up in Kansas City so the KC lineup is getting a quick second look at him. Hamels has a 6.55 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his two career starts against the Royals. Also, the left-hander did give up 5 earned runs in each of his first two starts of the month and one of those was a situation like this where a team (in that case the Twins) was seeing him in consecutive starts. The over is 10-3-1 in Hamels last 14 starts. Also, Ventura has a 6.33 ERA in his last 5 starts and he has averaged less than six innings per outing in those starts. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Royals road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The over is also 20-10 in Rangers home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and the Texas bullpen has a 5.58 ERA at home this year. 8 of the Rangers last 9 games against teams with a losing record on the season have gone over the total. More of the same here. *10* Top Play OVER in Texas |
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07-28-16 | Orioles v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Contrarian Total of the Month - *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Minnesota vs Baltimore @ 7:10 ET - The Orioles Ubaldo Jimenez has not pitched since prior to the All Star Break. His first daughter was born Saturday. Needless to say there are multiple reasons to believe this start is unlikely to go well for Jimenez and that certainly includes the fact that he is unlikely to be sharp. The Orioles right-hander has had a rough season as he has gone 5-9 with a 7.03 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP. Of course giving up an average of 2 baserunners per inning can certainly result in a lot of trouble and that is what Jimenez has experienced throughout this season. He now faces a Twins team that has scored 7 runs or more in 3 of their last 4 games and has allowed 8 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The "contrarian" aspect to this play is the fact that Baltimore has recorded 15 straight unders. How could I possibly fade that, especially with a "big" play? There a couple of key factors here. Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Twins and he is off of a fantastic outing but previously allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his 8 prior starts. In his start just before the break and just after the break Gibson gave up a total of 8 earned runs on 17 hits in 11 innings of work. Gibson also gave up 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings of work in his only start against the Orioles this season. Even though the O's have the long "under streak" noted above, note that Jimenez has not only seen each of his last 3 starts go over the total, the over is an amazing 10-1 in his last 11 starts including 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The over is also 11-4 in Orioles road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and the over is 38-17 this season in Twins night games. *10* Top Play OVER in Minnesota Thursday |
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07-28-16 | Rockies v. Mets OVER 7 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #901/902 - Earliest Cash - *8* OVER 7 in New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:10 ET - Jacob deGrom gets the start for the Mets and he was rocked for 5 runs on 10 hits in less than 4 innings of work in his start on Saturday. He claimed that he simply tired early and that is what resulted in the speed of his fastball being down. The concern for deGrom here would be that is a hot and humid afternoon start for him and it is on regular rest. In other words, he is quite likely to tire early again in this one and that spells trouble against a Colorado team that has won 6 of its past 7 games and averaged 6 runs per game in the victories. The Rockies will have Tyler Anderson on the mound and, though the southpaw has won three straight starts, he has had some good fortune of late. Anderson has given up 22 hits in his last 18 and 1/3 innings of work. Keep in mind this was against two of the weakest offenses in the NL (Phillies and Braves) and one of the weakest in the AL (Rays). That said, I have little doubt that the Mets will hit him well at home here on a muggy afternoon with the wind blowing out at Citi Field. In Mets home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season only 11 of 29 have stayed under the total. The over is 8-1 (89%) in Rockies Thursday games this season. *8* OVER in New York Mets |
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07-27-16 | Yankees +117 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #963 - Underdog Shocker - *10* Top Play New York Yankees +120 @ Houston @ 8:10 ET - The Yankees won again yesterday and are now 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Astros, with yesterday's 6-3 loss, dropped to 5-5 in their last 10 games. Lance McCullers gets the start for Houston and he is off of a strong start against the Angels although he did walk 4 batters for a 3rd straight start. McCullers gave up 11 hits in just 9 and 1/3 innings spanning his prior two starts. McCullers threw a season high 117 pitches in his most recent start and I look for him to show the "after effects" of that in this start. He'll be opposed by Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees. The Yanks have gone 15-5 in his 20 starts this season. He's been fantastic in his first two starts after the break as he has allowed just 1 earned on only 7 hits in the 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts. The Yankees have won 7 straight Tanaka starts and also 12 of his last 14. Tanaka has held the opposition to 2 earned runs or less in 14 of his 20 starts. The line on this game has continued to drop early this morning and it is certainly worth noting that the Astros are an ugly 3-6 (-4.0 units) this season in home games where they are favored by -125 or less so far this season. Look for the Astros to lose for the 5th time in McCullers last 8 starts. *10* NEW YORK YANKEES |
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07-27-16 | Rockies v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore vs Colorado @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday I played the over in the Yankees game and saw their streak of unders snap. Today I expect to do the same with the Orioles. With yesterday's 6-3 O's loss to the Rockies staying just under the total, Baltimore has now stayed under the total in 14 straight games! However, today they have Dylan Bundy getting the start and he is off of a successful start against the Indians but allowed 3 homers in less than 4 innings of work in his prior start and that was against light-hitting Tampa Bay. He'll be facing a tough test today as Bundy faces a confident Rockies lineup as Colorado has won 5 of their last 6 games and averaged 6 runs per game in doing so. The Rockies will have Jon Gray on the mound and certainly he has put up some impressive numbers of late. However, Gray faced the Braves twice and the Phillies once in his last 3 starts. Prior to facing these weak-hitting teams, Gray had gone through a three-start stretch where he had compiled a 5.82 ERA. The Orioles, though they hadn't been knocking the cover off the ball, did have a 5-game winning streak prior to yesterday's loss. That said, they step to the plate with plenty of confidence today and Gray gets a reminder of what is like to face a tough lineup (i.e. NOT the Braves or Phillies). The over is 22-12 in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The over is 5-1 in Colorado's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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07-27-16 | Reds v. Giants OVER 7 | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #953/954 - Daytime Dominator - *8* OVER 7 in San Francisco vs Cincinnati @ 3:45 ET - Each of the first two games in this series have flown over the total and the over is now 13-4 in the meetings between these clubs the last 3 seasons combined. Even though Daniel Straily has been pitching well he was shaky in his lone start against the Giants earlier this season and did allow 2 homers in that outing. As for San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner, the southpaw certainly is one of the top pitchers in the game. But the lefty has allowed 17 hits in his last 13 innings against the Reds. Also, Bumgarner did allow 2 homers in his most recent start against Cincy. The Giants ace left-hander comes into this start having allowed 6 earned runs in his 13 innings since the All Star Break. It may seem "tough" to take an over involving Bumgarner but the Reds have averaged 7.5 runs per game in their last 8 games and will have confidence in the batters box this afternoon even though they are facing a tough lefty. With Straily having allowed 21 earned runs in the 29 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 5 road starts, look for a "surprisingly" easy over this afternoon by the bay. The over is 29-16 in Reds road games this season including a perfect 5-0 when they are a road dog of +200 to +225. *8* OVER 7 in San Francisco |
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07-26-16 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 103 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #913/914 - Over Easy - *8* OVER 8.5 in Houston vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET Tuesday - I am well aware of the fact that the Yankees have stayed under the total in 11 straight games. The key here is that C.C. Sabathia is in a funk and he gets the start for the Yanks while I also am not "sold" on the fact of Doug Fister of the Astros being out of his slump either. As for Sabathia he has given up 29 earned runs in the 35 innings spanning his last 6 starts. The veteran left-hander has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each start. Even though the Astros have poor full season numbers against left-handed pitching this season, they have totaled 32 hits in their three games against southpaw starters since the All Star break. Sabathia's last visit to Houston (2014) saw him allow 6 earned runs in 6 innings and I expect another rough outing for him here. Fister has given up 20 hits in his last 17 and 2/3 innings against the Yankees. He is coming off of a strong start in his most recent outing but he had a mediocre 5.18 ERA over his 4 prior starts. Fister is facing a Yankees team that has won 7 of its past 9 so they step into the batters box with plenty of confidence here. The Yanks bullpen has been weakened with the departure of ace closer Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs and, overall, the Yankees bullpen has struggled on the road this season with a 4.76 ERA. The Astros had won 4 straight and averaged 7 runs per game before yesterday's disappointing effort at the plate. That said, I expect the Astros offense to respond here and the Yankees will get their fair share as well. In 8 home starts this season Fister has had only 2 unders. *8* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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07-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 102 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #905/906 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee vs Arizona @ 8:10 ET Tuesday - I had a tough loss in this match-up yesterday and I won't hesitate to come right back with it here. Yesterday's over was also a 9.5 and the game had 9 runs through 6 innings but stalled there. The game had 21 hits and it was truly a fluke (it happens!) that it did not go over the total. Look for today's match-up to make up for it. Neither team has a particularly strong bullpen so that is what made yesterday's end result even more surprising. As for the starting pitchers today, Patrick Corbin gets the start for Arizona and he is 0-3 with an 8.79 ERA and a 2.16 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The southpaw is on the fade and 3 of the Brewers 4 games against left-handed starters since the All Star break have gone over the total. Milwaukee will have Matt Garza on the mound Tuesday and he, like Corbin, is also 0-3 in his last 3 starts. Garza has compiled a 9.21 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his last 3 outings. The over is 5-0 in Corbin's last 5 starts and 13-4-1 in his last 18 starts overall! The over is 27-16 in Arizona's games against teams with a losing record this season. *10* OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee |
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07-26-16 | Mariners v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Total Dominator - *8* UNDER 8 in Pittsburgh vs Seattle @ 7:05 ET Tuesday - This one has the makings of an absolute pitchers' duel as Felix Hernandez squares off with Francisco Liriano in Pittsburgh. The Mariners right-hander had a tough outing in his first start after coming off of the disabled list and you know what that means for this fierce competitor. Hernandez will bring his "A game" tonight. As for Pirates southpaw Liriano, as I have mentioned in previous write-ups, the veteran lefty is a big game competitor. He'll be full of emotion for this chance to out-duel Hernandez. Liriano struck out 13 in 6 innings in his most recent start. Also, the Mariners haven't faced him since 2011 so this is a big edge for him as many of the Seattle hitters will have little to no experience against him. Liriano is 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA in his career against the Mariners. As for Hernandez, he has not faced the Pirates since 2013 so this is a big edge for him. The M's ace righty has gone 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his 3 career starts against Pittsburgh and the under cashed in all 3 times. The under is 7-3 in Liriano's 10 career starts against the Mariners. This season the under is 4-1 in the 5 road starts Hernandez has made. The under is 19-13 in Seattle's games against left-handed starters this season and also 25-17 in their games against teams with a winning record. Both bullpens also are fresh as each team was off yesterday. *8* UNDER in Pittsburgh |
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07-26-16 | Cubs v. White Sox +161 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 161 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #928 - ESPN Best Bet - *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox +160 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET Tuesday - James Shields had a rough time when he first came over to the White Sox from the Padres. However, he certainly has settled into a nice groove now with a 2.09 ERA over his last 5 starts. Shields faced the Cubs twice last season and struck out 20 in 13 innings. He comes into this start having allowed only 20 hits in the 27 and 2/3 innings spanning his 4 July starts. There is great home dog value here with Shields and the White Sox in this spot. The Cubs will have Kyle Hendricks on the mound tonight and he is only 2-5 in his road starts this season. The Cubs are only 12-19 since June 20th. This match-up is a big inter-league rivalry and, with yesterday's win, the White Sox have now taken 7 of the last 11 meetings. Hendricks gave up 5 earned runs in only 3 and 1/3 innings in his last start at U.S. Cellular Field and I look for another rough outing here. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the White Sox are now 9-5 this season. I'll gladly grab the big dog value here. *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-25-16 | Angels v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #965/966 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Kansas City vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:15 ET Monday - The Royals are hitting .281 this season against left-handed pitching. That is good enough for the #3 spot out of all 30 MLB teams. They're catching the Angels Hector Santiago at the right time to enjoy some success at the plate. The southpaw allowed 3 runs in just 5 innings in his most recent start and he also issued 3 free passes in that short outing. However, the Royals hurler is the big story here. Ian Kennedy continues to struggle with the long-ball and the wind will be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium this evening in Kansas City. Kennedy gave up 4 homers in his most recent start and no pitcher has given up more than the 26 he has allowed so far this season. The over is 3-1 in Kennedy's last 4 home starts. The Angels enter this game off of 3 straight losses. They are 9-4 to the over this season and 25-12 to the over the last 3 seasons when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive losses. The Angels are hitting .272 on the road this season and that ranks them 3rd in the majors. LA resumes the hot hitting they had been enjoying before the 3-game losing streak while KC continues to hit lefties well. That spells an easy over here. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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07-25-16 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #955/956 - Total Dominator - *8* OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee vs Arizona @ 7:20 ET Monday - Two pitchers who simply can't be trusted are matched up in this game and that's why this one has "over" written all "over" it! Braden Shipley gets the start for the Diamondback and he'll be making his MLB debut. Even in the minors he has been hit at a .281 clip this season. Look for Shipley to struggle even more with major league hitters! The Brewers have a "concern" on the mound as well as Chase Anderson gets the ball today. The right-hander has a 2.11 WHIP in July and has not been able to complete more than 4 and 1/3 innings in any of his starts. Anderson has 12 walks against just 9 strikeouts in his 3 July outings. The Brewers game totaled 11 runs yesterday and the Diamondbacks games totaled 17 runs Sunday. I expect another big offensive showing as these clubs now match up on Monday. The over is 27-15 in Arizona's games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, over the past three seasons, the over is 29-14 in their games on Mondays. I look for the over to improve to 13-5 in Anderson's starts this season. *8* OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee |
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07-25-16 | Tigers +139 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-2 | Win | 139 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #959 - ESPN Best Bet - *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers +140 @ Boston @ 7:05 ET Monday - Red Sox acquisition Drew Pomeranz is feeling the pressure of pitching for a contender instead of pitching for a struggling team like San Diego. In his Boston debut the southpaw got rocked by San Francisco. He now faces a solid Detroit lineup and that means things are unlikely to improve for Pomeranz. That makes this is a fantastic value spot for the underdog Tigers. With Justin Verlander on the mound as a dog matched up with a pitcher who is feeling the pressure and finding out what it is like to pitch at hitter-friendly Fenway Park instead of pitcher-friendly Petco Park, this is a steal of a price. Verlander has a 1.66 ERA and has struck out 32 in 27 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts. He also has a stellar 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Red Sox. Detroit is off of back to back losses and they have not lost three straight games in the past 4 weeks. Look for Verlander to step up as "the stopper" here as he puts an end to the streak. The Red Sox are only 10-10 this season as a home fave of -125 to -175 and that means that Boston has already lost plenty of juice in this role. *10* DETROIT |
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07-25-16 | Rockies v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #967/968 - Earliest Cash - *8* OVER 9.5 in Baltimore vs Colorado @ 7:05 ET Monday - The over is 9-4 in the Rockies Jorge De La Rosa's 13 starts this season. The southpaw got rocked for 9 runs (7 earned) in just 4 innings in his most recent start. De La Rosa has given up 19 hits in his 10 innings of work since the All Star Break. He has a 6.68 ERA on the season and the Orioles starter tonight has not been much better! Yovani Gallardo has a 5.69 ERA on the season. Command of pitches has been an issue for the Orioles right-hander as he has walked 12 in his last 17 innings of work. Gallardo is winless with a 6.66 ERA in his 9 career starts against the Rockies and the over went 7-1-1 in those contests. The over is 5-2 in Orioles interleague action this season and 6-2 when they are home fave of -150 to -175. Also, the over is 22-11 in Baltimore's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The O's have been on a lengthy "under" streak but that turns back around today based on this pitching match-up being very favorable for both lineups. The over is 9-3 in Rockies interleague action this season. Also, the over is a perfect 5-0 YTD in Colorado games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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07-24-16 | Dodgers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #911/912 - Total Dominator - *10* Top Play OVER 9 in St Louis vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET Sunday - The Cardinals are turning to rookie Mike Mayers for this spot start. It will be his MLB debut. Mayers may indeed end up having success at the MLB level but I don't expect it right off the bat. In looking at Mayers trek through the minors he struggled every time he was bumped up a level. This is the first season he's enjoyed success at the AAA level and I expect him to struggle in his first time up in the bigs. Mayers is certainly facing a confident Dodgers lineup. Los Angeles won 7-2 yesterday and the Dodgers have averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 games. The Cardinals should be able to match LA run for run here as the Cards "tee off" against Scott Kazmir. The Dodgers southpaw is off of a strong start but the soft-throwing lefty has had trouble stringing together quality back to back starts this season. He did pitch well against St Louis in May but that means the Cardinals are getting a 2nd look now and Kazmir has been known for getting roughed up in situations like this. The over is 7-2 in Kazmir's 9 road starts this season and all 3 of his career starts against the Cards have gone over the total. The over is also 5-1 in the Dodgers last 6 games overall. The over is also 17-10 in Cardinals games against left-handed starters this season and 10-4 in their Sunday games this year. *10* OVER 9 in St Louis |
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07-24-16 | Rays -116 v. A's | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #927 - Revenge Rout - *10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line -115 @ Oakland @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The Rays lost a heart-breaker yesterday as closer Alex Colome blew the save and then took the loss - all in the bottom of the 9th - after having converted 21 straight save opportunities. As you can see, that was an unlikely defeat for the Rays to suffer and I look for them to bounce right back here based on a huge pitching edge. Blake Snell gets the start for Tampa Bay and he has a 1.53 ERA in his road starts this season and he is off a stellar outing at hitter-friendly Coors Field. In July, teams are hitting just .153 against him. The A's will have Jesse Hahn on the mound. The right-hander was optioned to AAA about 6 weeks ago and, on the year, he is just 1-5 in the minors. In the bigs, Hahn has struggled with a 2-4 record and a 6.49 ERA. He'll face a Rays lineup whose confidence has been surging lately as a road trip to Coors Field helped get their sticks back on track. Off of back to back losses, the Rays resume their hot hitting ways this afternoon against a hurler who is struggling to find consistency right now and whom has a combined 3-9 record in the majors and minors on the year. Oakland is 5-10 in Sunday games this season and 15-23 in day games. Also, even with yesterday's miraculous win, the A's are still on an ugly 54-72 run in their games against left-handed starters. *10* TAMPA BAY RAYS |
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07-24-16 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #923/924 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Houston vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:10 ET Sunday - The Astros Mike Fiers is coming back down to reality after pitching better than expected for much of the first half of the season. There is a mental aspect to pitching that is extremely important and I would not be surprised to see Fiers really struggle here. He got into altercations both with his manager as well as teammates after being taken out of his last start during the 4th inning. The fact is he deserved to get yanked from the outing and it was his 2nd straight rough outing. Now he faces an Angels team that rocked him for 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings back in May. That said, don't be surprised if Fiers has another short and ugly outing here as it is not the right lineup for him to "get right" against. The Angels will have pitching issues of their own in this one as Tim Lincecum gets the ball. He gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work when he faced the Astros in late June. Also, Linceum has simply been awful overall this season as his ERA could easily be higher than the 6.59 it currently sits at as he has been hit at an ugly .370 clip on the year. That is not a misprint, opponents are hitting .370 against Lincecum on the season! Look for both pitchers to get rocked here as the over goes to 13-5 in Fiers' starts this season. *10* OVER in Houston |
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07-24-16 | Phillies v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #905/906 - PA Insider - *8* UNDER 8 in Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia @ 1:35 ET Sunday - Yesterday's game went over the total but prior to that the Phillies were on a 11-2-1 run to the under in their previous 14 games. Overall, Philadelphia has been struggling at the plate and they now face Jameson Taillon whom they've never seen before. The Pirates right-hander comes into this start having allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last two starts. The Phillies will have Vincent Velasquez on the mound and the hard-throwing right-hander has extra heat on his fastballs after getting some rest with the All Star break. Velasquez has a sparkling 1.96 ERA in his last 5 starts. The under is 7-2 in the Phillies last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The under was 6-1 in the Pirates last 7 games prior to yesterday's surprising result. Look for the bats to again go quiet today in what should be a pitchers duel. *8* UNDER in Pittsburgh  |
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07-24-16 | Giants v. Yankees OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #929/930 - Over Easy - *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees vs San Francisco @ 1:05 ET Sunday -Â Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Giants and the over is 8-1-1 in his last 10 starts. The San Francisco righty has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 9 starts! Samardzija has been getting hit hard and he also has walked 7 in his last 2 starts. He'll be opposed by the Yankees Nathan Eovaldi who has a 6.90 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in his last 3 starts. One could not blame the Yanks right-hander if he was having nightmares heading into this start. Eovaldi has started against the Giants five times in his career and he has gone 1-4 with a ridiculous 13.30 ERA and insanely bad 2.28 WHIP. As you would expect all 5 of those starts went over the total. Look for the over to go to 6-0 in Eovaldi's career starts against San Francisco as his struggles, as well as Samardzija's, continue Sunday afternoon. *8* OVER in New York Yankees |
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07-23-16 | Rays v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #977/978 - MLB Game of the Month - *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Tampa Bay @ 9:05 ET Saturday - The over is 7-1 in the Rays Drew Smyly's road starts this season. He comes into this match-up with the A's struggling badly. Smyly has given up at least 4 earned runs in 8 of his last 9 starts! The southpaw is not showing any signs of improving either as he has walked 5 while striking out just 3 in his last 2 starts. Smyly has given up 22 hits (including 4 homers) in his 16 career innings against the Athletics. The A's will have Kendall Graveman on the mound for this one. Graveman faced the Rays in May this season and he gave up 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out just 1 in less than 6 innings of work. Graveman has a losing record in night games this season and opponents have hit him at a .293 clip in night games on the year. The Rays lineup comes into this game with plenty of confidence. Although they were shutout last night, Tampa Bay previously scored an average of 7.4 runs per game in their last 5 games. A road trip to hitter-friendly Coors Field helped the Rays lineup get back on track and they'll respond after the shutout loss yesterday. In games this season where Tampa Bay is a road dog of +100 to +125, they over is 11-3 on the year. The over is 17-6 in A's games against left-handed starters this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-23-16 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #963/964 - Total Dominator - *8* OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Atlanta @ 8:10 ET Saturday - Yesterday's game between these teams ended up being, by Coors Field standards, a rare low-scoring game. With the wind likely blowing out at Coors Field tonight and with a favorable pitching match-up for the hitters, tonight's game should get crazy. The Braves send Matt Wisler to the mound and 8 of his last 11 starts have resulted in an over. In his three most recent starts Wisler has compiled an ugly 7.87 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. The Rockies should get to him early and often in this one as his recent struggles continue. Colorado will have Tyler Anderson on the mound tonight and he has a low ERA in his limited starting activity so far this season. However, Anderson has been fortunate as he has given up 14 hits and 3 walks for a total of 17 baserunners in his last 12 innings of work at home. He's managed to minimize the damage done but you can only "play with fire" so long at Coors Field before you do get "burned" badly by pitching yourself into jams. The Braves are 7-1-1 to the over in their last 9 games against left-handed starters. The Rockies are 14-9 to the over in home games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs. *8* OVER in Colorado |
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07-23-16 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #973/974 - Slugfest Smash - *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET Saturday - After winning three straight games and averaging 9 runs per game, Boston had a frustrating effort at the plate last night and they'll make up for it Saturday. Facing the Twins Ricky Nolasco insures that! The Minnesota right-hander is off of a rare strong effort against the Tigers where he held them to 1 earned run in 6 innings of work even though he walked 3 and did not record a single strikeout. His strikeout numbers have been trending downward and, prior to the solid start against Detroit, Nolasco gave up 17 earned runs in his last 24 and 1/3 innings. Also, he has given up 58 hits in his last 43 innings on the mound. The Red Sox should pound this ultra-hittable veteran hurler. The Red Sox have David Price on the mound but the big name southpaw hasn't been living up to his reputation in many of his recent starts. Price has given up 44 hits in his last 30 and 1/3 innings. The Boston lefty has a 4.75 ERA during this stretch and the Twins will benefit from facing lefties in back to back starts as they faced Rodriguez yesterday. The over is 13-4 in Nolasco's starts this season and the Twins are 36-16 to the over in night games this season. Look for the Red Sox over to improve to 10-4 in Saturday games this season as they get back to their big hitting ways after yesterday's dismal effort at the plate. *10* OVER in Boston |
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07-23-16 | Giants v. Yankees OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
NOTE: Even though it's now Johnny Cueto getting the start for the Giants I still am playing the OVER in the Yankees game Saturday. Cueto has given up 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts and I look for him to struggle again on a hitter-friendly afternoon in the Bronx. Original write-up below: Rickenbach MLB Game #979/980 - Daytime Dominator - *8* OVER 8.5 in NY Yankees vs San Francisco @ 4:05 ET Saturday - I used the under in the match-up between these clubs yesterday and it was a solid winner in a game that was truly a pitchers duel. I now expect today's match-up to be anything but a pitchers duel! Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Giants and the over is 8-1-1 in his last 10 starts. The San Francisco righty has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 9 starts! Samardzija has been getting hit hard and he also has walked 7 in his last 2 starts. He'll be opposed by the Yankees Ivan Nova in this one. The Yanks right-hander has allowed 3 homers in his last two starts and, overall, home runs allowed have been an issue this season for Nova. The wind is expected to be blowing out toward right field on a warm afternoon at Yankee Stadium too! Only 2 of Nova's 7 home starts this season have stayed under the total. Coming into this game it has been a long stretch of unders for the Yankees but this is the perfect spot to see the streak snapped! The over is 19-12 in Giants day games this season and the over is 7-4 in Yankees interleague games. *8* OVER 8.5 in NY Yankees |
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07-23-16 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 14-5 | Win | 102 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Game #965/966 - Earliest Cash - *8* OVER 9.5 in Toronto vs Seattle @ 1:05 ET Saturday - The Blue Jays R.A. Dickey is only 2-6 in his home starts this season. He also has a losing record and a 4.79 ERA in his daytime starts. The over is 9-5 in Blue Jays Saturday games this season and the Toronto knuckle-baller gave up 3 homers in his most recent start. The Mariners will have Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound and he is off of a strong start in his first outing after the All Star Break. However, he had previously allowed 41 hits in the 31 innings spanning his 5 prior starts. He'll get pounded this afternoon by a Blue Jays lineup hungry to bounce back at home after yesterday's 2-1 loss. The Jays had averaged 6 runs per game in their last 6 games prior to getting held to just one run yesterday. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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07-22-16 | Angels +134 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Game #923 - Underdog Shocker Rickenbach *10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels +134 @ Houston @ 8:10 ET - Lance McCullers of the Astros has a solid 3.61 ERA on the season but also has a 1.64 WHIP. As evidenced by those statistics he has been quite fortunate. In his last two starts he has walked 8 in 9 and 1/3 innings of work so he is constantly having to work his way out of jams. The Astros have held the upper hand in this series this season but the Angels have enjoyed a recent surge that they should carry into this series and they also have Matt Shoemaker on the mound in the first game of the 3 game set. Shoemaker has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 11 starts. He is coming off of an absolute gem against the White Sox as he shut them out and struck out 13 in his 9 innings of work versus the ChiSox. Shoemaker shutout the Astros over a solid 6 inning start 4 weeks ago. Although McCullers held the Angels to just 1 run in that match-up with Shoemaker, he did allow 6 hits plus walked 3 in less than 6 innings of work. The Astros have lost 4 of the last 6 starts that McCullers has made and he has struggled to work deep into games lately. Look for the Angels to win their 7th straight game and to make it three straight victories in Shoemaker starts. The Angels are 8-6 as a road dog of +125 to +150 and that has produced more than 5+ net games thanks to the positive returns of big dog action. I love this big dog spot with the better hurler on the mound and a red hot lineup backing him. The Angels have not only won 6 straight, they've scored at least 7 runs in 5 of those games. The Astros are off of a win but previously had gone just 3-4 in their last 7 games and averaged only 2 runs per game in the 4 losses. They are not hitting like LA is right now. *10* Los Angeles Angels Money Line |
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07-22-16 | Giants v. Yankees UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
MLB Game #929/930 - Total Dominator Rickenbach *8* UNDER 7 in New York Yankees vs San Francisco @ 7:05 ET - This is a low total, especially when you consider it is being played in an American League park. However, it is absolutely justified as both of these starting pitchers are capable of putting up a lot of zeroes on the board in this one. Another big edge for Madison Bumgarner and Masahiro Tanaka in this match-up is the fact that the lineups they are facing will be seeing them for the first time ever in this inter-league game. Bumgarner is off of a rare loss and I fully expect to respond here as he previously had allowed 2 earned runs or less in 15 of his last 18 starts! Masahiro Tanaka is off of another gem and he has given up 2 earned runs or less in 14 of his 19 starts this year! The Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitching all season long and they face a true "ace" in the form of Bumgarner tonight. As for Tanaka, his slider will keep the Giants hitters off balance all night just like it did against Boston Sunday. Look for the Yankees to stay under the total for the 7th straight time. The Giants were off yesterday and, though their game Wednesday went over the total, 5 of their 6 prior games stayed under. The under is 6-3 when the Giants are playing after an off day. The under is 7-2 in Giants road games this season where they are a -125 to -150 favorite. The under is 23-14 in Yankees games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Yanks have had just 2 overs in their 8 games a home dog of =100 to +125 so far this season. *8* UNDER 7 in New York Yankees |
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07-22-16 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Game #919/920 - Slugfest Smash Rickenbach *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Boston vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - These teams combined for 15 runs for an easy win for my Top Total yesterday and I expect a similar total to result today. Kyle Gibson of the Twins and Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox square off tonight in Boston. The last time these hurlers faced these opponents it also was a match-up against each other and that game totaled 19 runs. Gibson gave up 5 runs in less than 6 innings and Rodriguez gave up 4 runs in less than 5 innings. Although Rodriguez had a strong start last week in his return from AAA, he did face a Yankees team that has often struggled this season against lefties. Also, Rodriguez managed only 1 strikeout in the game and I again expect plenty of contact against the southpaw tonight. With the wind blowing out at Fenway Park this evening and with Rodriguez being homer-prone this season, don't be surprised if the Twins get some dingers in this one. Minnesota has averaged 6 runs per game in their past dozen road games. As for the Red Sox, they are averaging 6 runs per game in their home games and they should have no trouble with the offerings of Gibson here. He has allowed 8 earned runs on 17 hits in the 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Gibson has a 6.75 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in his road start this year. The over is 16-9 in Twins games against left-handed starters this season and 36-15 in their night games this year. The over is 40-29 in Red Sox games against right-handed starters this season. *10* OVER 10.5 in Boston |
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07-22-16 | Indians v. Orioles OVER 9 | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
MLB Game #915/916 - Over Easy Rickenbach *8* OVER 9 in Baltimore vs Cleveland @ 7:05 ET - Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Orioles and he got rocked in his first start after moving from the bullpen to the rotation. Bundy gave up 4 earned runs in 3 and 1/3 innings and the damage easily could have been even worse as he allowed 3 walks and 3 homers in that short outing. Now the right-hander faces an Indians team that has gone 4-2 and averaged 6 runs per game since the All Star Break. Cleveland was off yesterday and they've recorded only 2 unders in 8 games this season when playing after a day off. The Indians are on a 10-3 run to the over with 2 pushes in their last 15 games. Trevor Bauer gets the call for the Indians in this one and he has given up 8 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Cleveland is winless in Bauer's three career starts against Baltimore and he has a 5.71 ERA in those outings. The O's bats will be ready to get back on track after struggling for much of the road trip they just completed yesterday afternoon. The Orioles have averaged 6.8 runs and 12.1 hits per game in their last 10 home games and they'll be happy to be back to Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight. In O's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the over has gone 22-7 this season. *8* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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07-21-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -122 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach Game #966 - Revenge Rout MLB *10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line -122 vs Detroit @ 8:10 ET - Both starting pitchers in this match-up have some poor numbers on the season. But the difference is that Mike Pelfrey of the Tigers is certainly showing no signs of a turnaround while the White Sox James Shields is absolutely heading the right direction now. Pelfrey has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts. The damage for the veteran righty also could have been even worse as he has given up a ridiculous 40 hits in his last 24 and 1/3 innings. Pelfrey also is 1-5 with a 5.81 ERA in his career starts against the ChiSox. As for Shields, he has thrown 4 straight quality starts and has a stellar 1.59 ERA in these outings. He's facing a Tigers team that has been struggling at the plate for 2 weeks now. Detroit, in going 4-6 in their last 10 games, has averaged just 2.4 runs per game and only 7.2 hits per game. The White Sox have also certainly had their fair share of recent struggles but they do seem to have their sticks going again as they've now reached double digits in hits in three straight games. Facing the struggling Pelfrey should insure that the ChiSox stay hot at the plate. The Tigers are 1-4 this season in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs. Detroit has taken 4 of the 6 meetings so far this season between these clubs and it's time for a little payback. I am forecasting (and fully expecting!) a "revenge rout" based on this pitching match-up. *10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-21-16 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach Game #963/964 - Slugfest Smash MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox finally got their sticks going again in yesterday's offensive onslaught against the Giants. I look for carry over of momentum for the BoSox lineup from that big victory right into tonight's game. Boston will be facing Tyler Duffey of the Twins and he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 9 of his last 11 starts. Duffey will be opposed by knuckle-baller Steven Wright of the Red Sox who has hit a very tough stretch over the past month. Wright has given up 15 earned runs on 27 hits in the less than 22 innings of work spanning his last 4 outings. Minnesota will fare better against him than they did last month as they now get a quick second look at his offerings and he is in a downward cycle. Duffey was the opposing starter in that outing coincidentally and he got rocked for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The over is 8-4 in all of Duffey's starts this season and 6-3 in all of Wright's home starts this year. The Twins scored 10 runs in their last 2 games at Detroit (both victories) so they have some momentum coming into Fenway Park. The over is 22-11 this season in Twins games when they are off of a win. Also, Minnesota is 35-15 to the over in night games this year. The Red Sox and Twins have played 3 games this season and none have stayed under the total. Look for the over to improve to 7-2 in Thursday BoSox games this season. *10* OVER in Boston |
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07-21-16 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Game #961/962 - Earliest Cash MLB *8* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Baltimore @ 1:05 ET - Even though the Orioles Chris Tillman has been pitching very well lately and also has great numbers on the season, he gave up 5 earned runs on 8 hits (including 3 homers) in less than 6 innings of work the last time he faced the Yankees. The Yanks have scored 12 runs against the O's the last two days and they'll stay hot at the plate against Tillman whom they just saw in June. Baltimore has certainly been struggling at the plate but they get exactly what they need today as they will have a shot at a struggling hurler. C.C. Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees and he has had 5 straight rough starts. In this stretch he has given up at least 4 earned runs in all 5 starts and has allowed 39 hits in the less than 29 innings of work. With this total dropping from a 9 to an 8.5 excellent line value is being offered on the over in this game. Look for the over to improve to 18-8 in Orioles day games this season. *8* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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07-20-16 | Marlins v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach Divisional Game of the Month MLB *10* Top Play UNDER 8 in Philadelphia vs Miami @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies have been one of the streakiest teams in the league this season. They were hot early in the year and getting great pitching. Then the Phils started struggling and endured long losing stretches. Then they got hot again and even started winning games with their sticks. Now though they have reverted back to their season long struggles at the plate and I expect that to continue today. The Phillies are facing a southpaw and they rank last in the league against left-handed pitching for runs scored, home runs, and slugging percentage. That is out of all 30 teams in the majors, the Phillies are dead last. In the last 11 games for Philadelphia, only one has resulted in an over. The Phils have been getting good starting pitching again and that should continue today with Jeremy Hellickson on the mound. Each of his last 5 starts have stayed under the total and the Phillies righty has a solid 2.90 ERA during this stretch. He has held the Marlins to a 3.97 ERA in his 6 career starts against them and 5 of those 6 outings resulted in an under. 8 of the Marlins last 12 games have stayed under the total and Miami is also 10-4 to the under in Wednesday games this season. As a home dog of +100 to +125, the Phillies are 9-4 to the under this season. 12 of their 19 games against left-handed starters have resulted in unders this season. The Marlins have been held to 8 hits or less in 6 of their last 9 games. The Phils have been held to 5 hits or less in 3 straight games and 4 of their 5 games since the All Star Break. Wei-Yin Chen has a 1.11 WHIP on the road this season which is outstanding. His biggest problem recently has come via the long-ball but the Phillies have struggled to generate power against southpaws all season long. That sets this one up nicely for another pitchers' duel. *10* UNDER in Philadelphia |
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07-20-16 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach Slugfest Smash MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland vs Houston @ 3:35 ET - The Astros Doug Fister has had great success against the A's this season but Oakland will now be seeing him for the fourth time this year. Fister also was hit harder in his only start that was at Oakland this season and the other two starts were in Houston including a solid outing two weeks ago. Looking at Fister's other recent starts (his last three not against the A's) he has given up 12 earned runs on 22 hits in 16 and 1/3 innings. Look for more struggles for him here. The Athletics will have some pitching issues of their own here. Daniel Mengden gets the start and the right-hander is having an awful July. So far this month he has a 10.80 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. Also, in his lone start against the Astros this season he was rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. Yesterday's game between these divisional foes stayed under the total but that was just the 2nd under the Astros have had since the All Star Break and it was the first one for the A's since the break. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Mengden's last 4 starts. Also, the over is 23-13 in A's games against teams with a winning record this season. As a home dog of +100 to +125 Oakland is 7-3 to the over this season. As a road fave of -100 to -150 the Astros have gone 19-10 to the over this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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07-20-16 | Indians v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 11-4 | Win | 115 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Over Easy MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs +115 in Kansas City vs Cleveland @ 2:15 ET - These pitchers both have solid numbers on the season and that is resulting in some great line value on the over in this game. Kauffman Stadium is a hitter-friendly venue and the wind will be blowing out today on a stifling afternoon in Kansas City with the ball carrying very well. That means the hitters should hold the upper hand in this match-up. With yesterday's 7-3 win going over the total, Cleveland is now 9-3-2 to the over in their last 14 games. The Indians Carlos Carrasco has great numbers this season but he has been fortunate in his two starts against the Royals this year. Carrasco only allowed 5 earned runs but he gave up 19 hits in the 11 innings spanning his two starts against Kansas City! Ian Kennedy gets the start for the Royals this afternoon and he is known for giving up the long ball. The Kansas City right-hander has allowed 22 homers in his 18 starts this season. Also, Kennedy has given up 9 earned runs in less than 13 innings of work spanning his two starts against the Indians this season. The Tribe got to him for 2 homers in each of those games and that's bad news for Kennedy here considering the favorable hitting conditions expected at Kauffman Stadium this afternoon. The Royals are 4-0 to the over as a home dog of +125 to +150 this season. This will be the Indians 34th road game this season and so far only 12 have resulted in an under. *8* OVER in Kansas City |
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07-20-16 | Braves +168 v. Reds | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Earliest Cash MLB *8* Atlanta Braves Money Line +168 @ Cincinnati @ 12:35 ET - The Braves got the upset win over the Reds yesterday and there is no reason to believe that they are not capable of doing that again today. Cincinnati is simply overpriced here. Sure the Braves have an ugly record on the season but so too do the Reds. Also, Atlanta has now won 5 of their last 9 games and Cincy's Anthony DeSclafani is winless in three career starts against the Braves with a 5.27 ERA and an alarming 2.05 WHIP in those outings. Atlanta will have Lucas Harrell on the mound and, though he struggled in his most recent start against the Rockies (shaking off the rust after the All Star Break) he had allowed only 2 earned runs on just 7 hits in the 13 and 2/3 innings spanning his 2 prior starts. Harrell will bounce back here and the Reds haven't faced him in 4 years so that is a big edge for the pitcher as well. *8* ATLANTA |
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07-19-16 | Rays v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Over Easy MLB 6* OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Tampa Bay @ 8:40 ET - The Rays have had their share of challenges in terms of offensive production this season. However, Coors Field in Colorado tends to bring out the best in even the weakest of lineups. The Rays only got 4 runs yesterday but they have now scored 9 runs in their last two games and are certainly headed the right direction. Tampa Bay should have no problems with the offerings of Tyler Chatwood today. The right-hander is winless in 2 career starts with the Rays and has compiled a 7.36 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in those two outings. Chatwood has pitched well on the road this season but he is 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in his home starts this year. He has an ugly 2.14 WHIP in his last three overall starts and two of those were on the road. The only good news for Chatwood today is that the Rockies lineup should provide plenty of run support for him. Colorado will be teeing off against Blake Snell of the Rays. The southpaw had some struggles with command of his pitches leading into the All Star break and giving up too many walks can quickly become a problem at Coors Field where the ball carries so well. The over is 23-15 in Rays road games this season. Also, the over is 8-2 in Rockies inter-league games this year. Look for the over in Coors Field games to improve to 25-16 on the season after yesterday's game ended up coming up just a run short of going over the total. 6* OVER in Colorado |
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07-19-16 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Slugfest Smash MLB 6* OVER 9.5 in LA Angels vs Texas @ 10:05 ET - With 5 runs in yesterday's game, the Rangers have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 13 games. The Angels exploded for 9 runs yesterday and they've scored at least 5 runs in 8 of their last 11 games. With the two starting pitchers slated for tonight's game, there is no reason that both teams should not continue to pound the ball at the plate. WHIP is a great measurement of a pitchers effectiveness because it looks at how many baserunners (walks and hits) they are allowing per inning pitched. Amazingly, both of these starting pitchers have WHIPs that are above 2.00 so far this season. Allowing an average of 2 baserunners per inning shows just how bad these guys have been thusfar. Granted Kyle Lohse has only made 1 start for the Rangers but he was getting rocked at the AAA level too plus he got hammered last year in the bigs! He'll be opposed by Tim Lincecum of the Angels tonight and the right-hander has made 5 starts this season and has proven to be extremely hittable. Lincecum has an 11.05 ERA in his two home starts this season. He was lucky he only gave up 3 earned runs in his most recent starts as he allowed 9 hits plus walked 2 in less than 6 innings of work at Baltimore. The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Rangers last 6 games against teams with a losing record. The over is 38-22 in Angels Tuesday games the last 3 years combined. 6* OVER in LA Angels |
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07-19-16 | Braves v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Earliest Cash 6* UNDER 9.5 in Cincinnati vs Atlanta @ 7:10 ET - Yesterday's game between these clubs snuck over the total but it was the 6th straight game in which Atlanta was held to 4 runs or less. In fact, the Braves have been held to 4 runs or less in 11 of their last 12 games. In those 11 games Atlanta is averaging just 2.4 runs per game! Even though they face a hurler who has had some struggles adjusting to pitching at the MLB level, it is still not a good match-up. The Reds Cody Reed is a southpaw and the Braves .348 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season ranks them an anemic 29th out of all 30 MLB teams. Reed does have 29 strikeouts in his 24 and 2/3 innings of work at the MLB level so, despite the high ERA, he may prove very tough against an Atlanta lineup that just can't hit lefties. No team has struck out more against southpaws than the Braves have this season. Atlanta will have Tyrell Jenkins on the mound and the rookie was successful in his MLB debut and also has a 2.91 ERA at the AAA level in the minors this season. As a home favorite of -125 to -150, Cincinnati has had just 18 overs in their last 41 games in that price range. Look for a Braves game to stay under the total for the 10th time in their 14 Tuesday games this season. Keep in mind the Reds had averaged just 2.2 runs per game in their last 6 games before that big day at the plate yesterday. 6* UNDER in Cincinnati |
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07-18-16 | Rays v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach Slugfest MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado vs Tampa Bay @ 8:40 ET - As a road dog of +100 to +125 the Rays are 10-2 to the over this season. The over is 6-2 in Tampa Bay's Monday games this year and the over is 8-2 in Rockies inter-league games this season. Colorado got shutout yesterday. The last 4 times they scored three runs or less they responded with a big effort at the plate each time averaging 9 runs per game in the process. The Rockies should have no problem with the offerings of the Rays Drew Smyly here. The Tampa Bay southpaw is an ugly 2-10 on the season and he has given up at least 4 earned runs per game in 7 of his last 8 starts! His ERA over this rough two month stretch is a 7.92 and going to hitter-friendly Coors Field is unlikely to help matters for Smyly! He'll be opposed by the Rockies Tyler Anderson tonight and the young southpaw has an impressive ERA this season but he's been quite fortunate. He has an amazing 2.63 ERA at home this year despite getting hit at a .313 clip at Coors Field! Anderson has given up 25 hits in less than 18 innings of work spanning his last 3 home starts. It catches up with him here. The Rays have a .471 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that is #1 in the American League. The Rockies have a ridiculous .533 slugging percentage in home games this season which is far and away the best mark in the majors. This one gets crazy EARLY in the thin air of Denver. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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07-18-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 10 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Over Easy *8* OVER 10 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - Both of these clubs are off of games that stayed under the total yesterday but look for plenty of offense in this one. Minnesota will have Ricky Nolasco on the mound and he has given up 11 runs (10 earned) on 18 hits in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last 2 road starts. Also, the Tigers have given him problems. Nolasco has faced Detroit twice this season and he has given up 9 runs (7 earned) on 17 hits in the less than 11 innings of work spanning those two starts against Detroit. The Tigers will have a pitching concern of their own in this one. Matt Boyd, a southpaw, has a 9.69 ERA in his last 3 starts and he remains winless on the season in his 6 starts this year. The young lefty just has not been able to prove that he can "stick" at the MLB level. Boyd is 1-8 with a 6.87 ERA in his MLB career and opponents have hit .295 against him in his 90+ innings of work in the bigs. Only 2 of his 6 starts this season have stayed under the total and the over is also 13-3 in Nolasco's starts this season! The Twins are 35-13 in night games this season and only 1/3 of their games against left-handed starters have resulted in an under this year. The wind should be blowing out at Comerica Park tonight and the over is 24-14 in Detroit's home games this season. Also, the Tigers are 8-2 to the over in Monday games this season. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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07-18-16 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Contrarian MLB *8* OVER 9 in New York Yankees vs Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - Both of these clubs were involved in games that stayed under the total yesterday. However, the high total (9.5) posted on this game that has since moved down to a lower total (9) is absolutely justified. The over is 22-5 this season in Orioles games with posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and that strong angle tightens up to a nearly perfect 11-1 to the over when it is a road game for Baltimore. The O's should pound Ivan Nova. The Yankees have had just 1 under in his 6 home starts and Nova has compiled a 5.01 ERA in these outings. He also has given up 10 earned runs on 15 hits in less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Orioles. Kevin Gausman gets the start for the O's tonight and he has matched up better with the Yankees than Nova has with the Orioles. However, Gausman did allow 7 hits in 6 innings the last time he faced the Yanks and 6 hits in 5 innings the last time he faced them at Yankee Stadium. The Baltimore right-hander has struggled in each of his last two starts (both were on the road) and he remains winless on the road this season and has compiled a 5.25 ERA away from home this year. He'll give some up against a Yankees team off of a win yesterday and that averaged 8 runs per game in their 4 prior wins. As for the Orioles offense against right-handed pitching this season, they are the #1 home run hitting team and also rank #1 in slugging percentage out of all 30 MLB teams. *8* OVER in New York Yankees |
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07-18-16 | Marlins v. Phillies +180 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach Underdog *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +180 vs Miami @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are off of a shutout loss and that is significant in terms of huge home dog value here because the Phillies have not lost back to back games in 4 weeks! Philadelphia should respond here and I like the "live arm" of Aaron Nola with a lot of extra rest as he's fully refreshed mentally and physically with all the time off. The Phillies right-hander had his last start skipped in the rotation and then of course had extra time off because of the All Star Break. With all the extra rest, Nola will come up with a big effort here against Miami. He had been rock solid and the Phillies had won 7 of his last 9 starts before he hit this tough stretch. Though it may seem "tough" to fade Jose Fernandez of the Marlins, he has struggled in recent road outings. Miami has lost each of the last two road starts that Fernandez has made and he was pounded for 13 runs (10 earned) in less than 12 innings of work spanning those two starts. Also, Fernandez has allowed 8 earned runs in the 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts at Philadelphia. Look for the Phillies to improve to 8-0 their last 8 when off of a loss. Miami is 16-24 in divisional games this season and I see them dropping to 0-4 the last 4 times they have been installed as a road favorite of -175 or more. Insane home dog line value in this one. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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07-17-16 | Red Sox -115 v. Yankees | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach Revenge Rout *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox -115 @ New York Yankees @ 8:05 ET - The Yankees showed yesterday, by not being able to hit a struggling lefty (Eduardo Rodriguez) that they simply stink against left-handed pitching. No excuse for their performance at the plate yesterday and it just proves how bad they are against southpaws. To not hit Rodriguez was insane. The Yanks are now 11-17 in their games against left-handed starters this season and one of the rare victories, surprisingly, came against Boston's David Price. Of course that makes this a revenge spot for Price and he has settled down a lot since his early season inconsistencies. Price has struck out 10 in 3 straight starts and has a solid 2.82 ERA during this stretch. Additionally, he has produced 10 quality starts in his last 12 outings since tough back to back outings against the Yankees in early May. You can bet, literally, that Price has been chomping at the bit for this rematch. He'll be opposed by the Yankees Masahiro Tanaka and that keys this play. He has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts overall and also in 2 of his last 3 home starts. In fact, Tanaka has a 5.05 ERA in home starts this season. The Yanks right-hander has given up at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts against Boston and simply is not in good current form heading into this game. With the loss yesterday, the Yankees are now 10-19 in divisional games this season. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 games. Look for Price to get his revenge this evening. *10* BOSTON Sunday |
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07-17-16 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach Slugfest MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET Sunday - This will be a contrarian play and I am taking advantage of the early line move here from an 8.5 down to an 8. Certainly I understand the move based on this match-up of crafty left-handed pitchers but there is plenty of reason to expect a lot of offense in this one. Afternoon games at Oakland are a little more hitter-friendly as you don't have the same dense night air you have in night games along the West Coast. Additionally, the wind is going to be blowing out at Oakland Coliseum Sunday afternoon. The over is 16-5 this season in Oakland's games against left-handed starters as they have hit southpaws well this season. Sunday they face the Blue Jays J.A. Happ who gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent road start. Also, Happ has given up 3 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts against the Athletics. Rich Hill gets the start for the Blue Jays tonight and he allowed 3 earned runs in his only recent start against the Blue Jays. Also, although he has impressive numbers this season Hill has been dealing with a blister on his throwing hand which certainly could be an issue as he tries to command his pitches Sunday. It did push his start back from it's original schedule and he could be a little rusty here. The A's are 22-12 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record. *10* OVER 8 in Oakland |
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07-17-16 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Over Easy MLB *8* OVER 9 in Minnesota vs Cleveland @ 2:10 ET Sunday - The Twins, heading into Saturday, were 31-15 to the over in their home games and 28-13 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record. They will be facing the Indians Josh Tomlin Sunday and he got crushed by Detroit in his last start before the All Star break and now has the extra stress of trying to work off the rust of a long layoff. Tomlin also has a 5.77 ERA in his career starts against Minnesota. Coincidentally, the Twins Kyle Gibson also has a 5.77 ERA in his career starts against the Indians. As you can see, both hurlers have had trouble against the opponents they are facing today. Additionally, Minnesota's Gibson has matched up with Hamels and the Rangers in each of his last two starts and he gave up 4 runs in each outing. The wind is expected to be blowing out at Target Field on Sunday afternoon. Tomlin has a 4.25 ERA in his day game outings this season and Gibson has struggled against left-handed batters (.309 BAA) this season and the Indians lineup will be loaded with switch-hitters and left-handed sticks. The over is 18-11 in Cleveland's day games this season and this should be another easy over here. *8* OVER 9 in Minnesota |
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07-17-16 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Earliest Cash MLB *8* OVER 9 in Cincinnati vs Milwaukee @ 1:10 ET Sunday - These teams headed into Saturday's match-up having played 8 times this season with only 1 under resulting in those 8 games. In the Saturday match-up the Brewers already had plated 9 runs by the 3rd inning. That's bad news for the Reds Daniel Straily who comes into this match-up with a 7.02 ERA in his last 3 starts. Straily has been rocked for 4 homers in his last 3 starts. Cincinnati should join the hitting frenzy Sunday as they take advantage of facing a struggling Zach Davies who is on the fade right now. The Brewers right-hander has given up 24 hits in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts and Davies has a 6.19 ERA during this rough stretch. He allowed 3 homers in one of his most recent starts and he has also allowed 3 homers in his 2 career starts against the Reds. Cincy, heading into Saturday, was 21-9 to the over in divisional games this season and also 40-23 to the over in their games against right-handed starters. Milwaukee, heading into Saturday, was 7-1 in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons. In 37 day games this season the Brewers have stayed under the total just 14 times. More of the same here at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. *8* OVER 9 in Cincinnati |
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07-16-16 | Royals -119 v. Tigers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach Revenge Rout MLB *10* Top Play Kansas City Royals -120 @ Detroit @ 7:10 ET - Danny Duffy is seeking revenge and certainly should get it. He had a tough outing in June against the Tigers but he was matched up with Justin Verlander in the eventual 10-4 Royals loss. The good news this time is that Verlander pitched yesterday and that means Mike Pelfrey is Duffy's counterpart this time. Pelfrey is 2-8 on the season and also has a 7.12 ERA in his home starts this year. Pelfrey has managed to escape big trouble in many of his recent starts where he's put himself in tough situations with too many baserunners but then managed to work his way out of it. There is only so many times a "magician" can accomplish that before "playing with fire" eventually burns. Pelfrey is ultra-hittable and he has been hit at an insane .363 batting average in his home starts this season! Kansas City should pound him while Duffy shuts down the Tigers. Yes, he had a tough outing in his last start against the Royals but he he still has a 1.16 WHIP in his 12 career starts against the Tigers. By comparison, Pelfrey has an ugly 1.84 WHIP in his 7 career starts against the Royals. Kansas City is 8-3 in Duffy's 11 starts this season and the Royals southpaw has a solid 3.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the year. The loss in Duffy's start against the Tigers in mid-June was the only defeat in a 4-game set as KC won the other 3 games. He and the Royals get their revenge for that here. *10* KANSAS CITY |
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