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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-14-16 | Orioles +1.5 v. Red Sox | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Baltimore Orioles +1.5 runs -130 @ Boston @ 7:10 ET - Both of these pitchers have great records on the season and also have compiled a solid WHIP so far this year. However, Chris Tillman's 3.01 ERA is more than a run and a half less than Boston's David Price. Look for the Orioles right-hander to continue his domination of the Red Sox. Not only is Tillman off of a dominating start against the Royals in his most recent start, he also is 9-3 with a 2.84 ERA in his career starts against Boston. As for the Red Sox Price, the southpaw gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start against the Orioles and that did come this season. This is an edge for the O's lineup as Baltimore is facing the Red Sox star lefty for the 2nd time already this season while Boston has not faced Tillman in over a year. I am going to grab the run and a half here with Baltimore because even though they've lost three straight, two of the three losses came by just a single run. Additionally, the Orioles had won 8 of their last 9 games before the three straight losses so they have been playing solid ball. Conversely, the Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 10 games and also Boston has lost 3 of its last 4 games at Fenway Park. Baltimore has gone an incredible 12-5 in their last 17 games as a road dog of +150 to +175. The Orioles are also 29-16 in night games this season. The Red Sox are 2-4 as a home fave of -150 to -175 this season. Also, when playing with day off, Boston has gone 18-26 the past three seasons. *8* BALTIMORE Run Line +1.5 runs |
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06-14-16 | Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 3-11 | Win | 107 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Toronto vs Philadelphia @ 12:35 ET - The Phillies Zach Eflin makes his MLB debut this afternoon. Though he certainly has pitched very well at the AAA level this season, his prior minor league numbers showed a guy that pitched to contact and wasn't overly dominant. With that said, I don't think he's completely ready to just come in and dominate at the MLB level. This is especially true today as he comes in and faces a powerful Blue Jays lineup that had been red hot prior to getting shutout by Jared Eickhoff yesterday. The Jays had won 4 of their 5 prior games and had averaged 7.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The issue for Toronto today is they send a struggling Marcus Stroman to the mound. The right-hander has been rocked in going winless in his last three starts with a 9.37 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP. The Phillies aren't known for their hitting prowess but, with yesterday's 7-0 win, they have now averaged 4.2 runs per game and 8 of their last 9 games prior to Monday had gone over the total. The Phils are certainly hitting the ball better in June than they were earlier this season. Couple that with Stroman's struggles and the fact that the Phils have a 22 year old rookie on the mound and you have the makings of an easy over this afternoon. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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06-13-16 | Indians v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8 in Kansas City vs Cleveland @ 8:15 ET - Some low run totals recently for Kansas City is hiding the fact that the Royals have averaged 10.2 hits per game in their last 5 games. Also, they faced Carlos Carrasco in his first start off of the disabled list and the Royals got to him for 9 hits in a start where the Indians right-hander was fortunate that he only allowed 3 earned runs. In his next start, Carrasco gave up 4 earned runs at pitcher-friendly Seattle and the Mariners got to him for two homers. This is just his third start since coming off of the DL and he's giving the Royals lineup a quick "second look" so this is likely to be a tough start for him. Kansas City is also likely to see their starting hurler struggle tonight as Edinson Volquez gets the start. The Royals right-hander will be facing the Indians for the third time already this season. In 10 and 2/3 innings versus Cleveland, Volquez has given up 10 earned runs on 14 hits. In each of the starts, he has allowed two home runs plus walked four batters. Volquez is an ugly 2-6 with an 8.12 ERA in his career against the Indians. He is winless in his last three overall starts entering this outing and he has compiled a 6.35 ERA in these games. The Indians are 9-3 in their last 12 games and have averaged nearly 6 runs per game in the 9 victories. Cleveland is 14-8 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Kansas City is 4-2 to the over in Monday games this season and the Royals are 24-16 to the over on Mondays the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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06-13-16 | Tigers -106 v. White Sox | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers -105 @ Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - With their 4-1 win in the Bronx yesterday the Tigers have won 8 of their last 11 games. Amazingly, Detroit has allowed an average of only 2.6 runs per game during this 11-game stretch. That spells bad news for a White Sox team that has lost 7 of their last 9 games and averaged only 3.2 runs per game in their last 10 games. Not only is this a case of two teams heading in opposite directions, it also is a case of two pitchers heading in opposite directions. Matt Boyd gets the starts for the Tigers and he has allowed only 9 hits in the 11 and 2/3 innings of work spanning his last two outings. The Detroit southpaw has actually had no hitters going through the first four innings of each of those starts. Boyd will be opposed by the White Sox James Shields who had an awful debut in his first start with his new team. Shields has now given up 17 earned runs in the 4 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts. He's also allowed 5 homers in these outings and Detroit already swept the White Sox earlier this month. Shields is 2-8 on the season and the White Sox are 5-9 against left-handed starters this year. The Tigers are 94-75 in divisional games the past three seasons combined. Classic case of "hot versus not" here and the road team offers exceptional line value in this spot. *10* DETROIT |
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06-13-16 | Reds v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Atlanta vs Cincinnati @ 7:10 ET - The Reds are happy to be done facing A's pitching as Cincinnati struggled to score runs in that series. They catch a "break" now as they get to face Aaron Blair and the Braves struggling bullpen. Blair is 0-4 on the season with a 7.13 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. He gave up 3 homers in his most recent home start and it will be a hitter-friendly night in Atlanta with the ball carrying well. The Reds will have some pitching concerns of their own tonight as they hand the ball to Daniel Wright. The right-hander is making just his 2nd start and he struggled in his first outing at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Now Wright has to try and stay out of trouble at hitter-friendly Turner Field and it is unlikely to go well. With yesterday's loss to the Cubs totaling 15 runs, the Braves are now 6-1 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Reds are 16-9 to the over in road games this season and that includes a solid 4-1 to the over in road games where they are a road dog in a price range of +100 to +125. Against right-handers Cincinnati has gone 29-16 to the over. I'll test the 6-1 Braves angle and 4-1 Reds angle for a combined 10-2 (83%) trend in this one. *8* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta |
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06-13-16 | Phillies +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 runs -105 @ Toronto @ 7:05 ET - Jerad Eickhoff's record (3-8) is not reflective of how well he has pitched this season. He's often been a hard luck loser as he has a 3.68 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP on the season! Eickhoff comes into this start having compiled a solid 2.76 ERA in his last 5 starts and he'll take advantage of facing a Blue Jays team that has never seen him. As for R.A. Dickey of the Blue Jays, he had trouble with his knuckler (which is a key to his success) in his most recent start and he gave up 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work but was fortunate to only allow 2 earned runs in that outing. Dickey will be facing a Phillies team that has given him some trouble in recent meetings with 23 hits allowed in his last 18 and 1/3 innings against them. In his most recent start against the Phils, Dickey gave up 5 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in Dickey's home starts this season but, just in case Toronto does sneak out a tight win here I am going to grab the +1.5 runs with the Phillies. With Eickhoff on the mound, I see the Phils being "in this one" all the way! With yesterday's win over the Red Sox the Blue Jays still are only 5-4 in their last 9 games and 3 of those 5 wins came by just a single run. There is significant line value here with basically a "pick'em" price on the Phillies on the run line. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 runs |
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06-12-16 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Francisco vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:30 ET - The Giants didn't get much of anything going in yesterday's game until the bottom of the 10th when they rallied to tie the game and then win it, courtesy of 4 straight hits. Coming off of a dramatic late win like that, I look for the San Francisco bats to build off that performance. As for the Dodgers, they are certainly frustrated about losing last night's game but the lineup finally got things going with 11 hits in yesterday's game. Facing Jake Peavy should help the Dodgers lineup to build off of yesterday's performance. I am well aware that the Giants right-hander has great career numbers against the Dodgers. However, he has allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work in 2 of his last 3 starts against LA. Peavy also gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start against the Cardinals earlier this week. He has a 2-6 record and a 6.41 ERA on the season and the veteran is simply not the same pitcher he once was. Peavy will be matched up with Julio Urias who will be making just his 4th start of the season. The southpaw will be facing a Giants team that has hit .271 in their games against left-handed starters this season. Urias is winless in his first three starts this season and got crushed in both road outings to the tune of a 9.39 ERA away from home. Urias is only 19 years old and he's been crushed by right-handed hitters at the MLB level as they've hit .378 against him. That's bad news for what is to come tonight and, even though AT & T Park is a pitcher-friendly park, the wind will be blowing out tonight and I expect both of these hurlers to struggle badly in this one. The over is 5-2 in Dodgers games this season where they are a road dog of +100 to +125. The over is 13-8 in Giants games against teams with a winning record this season. *10* OVER in San Francisco |
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06-12-16 | Rangers +102 v. Mariners | Top | 6-4 | Win | 102 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line +102 @ Seattle @ 4:10 ET - The whole world seemed to jump on the Mariners yesterday and they lost. Though the line move today is much smaller, it once again does not seem justified. The Rangers opened up as a small favorite here but are now a small dog as the markets flocked to Seattle and Wade Miley over Texas and Cole Hamels. Of course the Adrian Beltre injury continues to impact pricing in the markets but does anybody still realize that the Rangers will still have a lineup loaded with major league hitters going up against a hurler, Miley, who has an 8.04 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his last 3 starts? Even when one looks at Miley's full season numbers there is nothing to be impressed about. The Mariners southpaw is fortunate that he has a 6-2 record and that team has gone 9-3 in his 12 starts because Miley has a 5.27 full season ERA. The southpaw will prove to be no match for Hamels whose 5-1 record on the season is supported by a solid 3.32 ERA in his 12 starts. The Rangers lefty has been even better on the road than at home as Hamels 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in his 5 starts away from home. Hamels also has a 1.93 ERA in his last two starts against the Mariners while Seattle's Miley has a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts against the Rangers. This is a big-time pitching mismatch in my opinion and I look for the Mariners to drop to 2-8 in Sunday games this season. Seattle has lost 6 of their last 9 games. The Rangers have won 16 of their last 21 games. *10* TEXAS |
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06-12-16 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Tampa Bay vs Houston @ 1:10 ET - After opening up at an 8.5 this total dropped to an 8 and the over is available at plus money as well. I am not surprised at the value being offered here as each of the first two games have managed to stay under the total. That is helping to disguise the fact that these teams combined for 4 homers in yesterday's game and today's match-up is conducive to more runs with plenty of homers likely again. The Rays Matt Moore has allowed 8 homers in his last 5 starts. The Astros Dallas Keuchel has given up 7 homers in his last 4 road starts! Overall, both southpaws are struggling. The Rays are 4-8 in Moore's starts this season and he's compiled a 5.55 ERA in those outings. The Astros are 4-9 in Keuchel's starts this year and he's compiled a 5.44 ERA in those outings. Tampa Bay recorded an under in Moore's last start but that was the first under in a Moore start since all the way back in April. As for Keuchel, 5 of his 8 road starts this season have gone over the total. The over is 8-3 in Astros road games with a money line of -100 to -125 this season. The over is 9-6 in Houston's games against left-handed starters this season and the over is 10-5 in Tampa's games against southpaws this year. *8* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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06-11-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8 in Pittsburgh vs St Louis @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game certainly had no business going over the total as some late runs changed the complexion of the game and then it went over the total thanks to a 6-run 12th inning from the Cardinals. I had the Cards yesterday and certainly was not happy when they allowed the tying run in the bottom of the 9th. All's well that ends well however and today I expect the big bats to show up well before a 12th inning! The Cardinals have admittedly struggled against the Pirates Francisco Liriano this season. However, the Pittsburgh southpaw has been rocked in each of his last two starts so he enters this game in poor current form. Liriano has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits (including 3 homers) and 8 walks in his last 2 starts which have spanned only 9 and 1/3 innings. Liriano continues to struggle with command as he has walked 13 in the 15 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Cardinals have drawn nearly 4 walks per game on the road this season where their .346 on base percentage ranks them 2nd out of all 30 MLB teams. They'll be patient at the plate today and frustrate Liriano. The Pirates lefty will be opposed by Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals today and the over is 8-2-1 in his 11 starts this season. The Cards right-hander is just 2-3 with a 4.89 ERA in his career starts against Pittsburgh and he has allowed 19 hits in his last 16 innings versus the Pirates. The over is a PERFECT 8-0 this season in Cardinals Saturday games. Also, when off of a win, St Louis has gone 22-10 to the over this year. The over is 16-3 in Pirates games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season and that includes 11-1 in home games! Pittsburgh is also 19-9 to the over this season when off of a loss. The Pirates and Cards will also both benefit from the wind blowing out to left field on a warm evening in Pennsylvania tonight. *10* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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06-11-16 | Mets v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Milwaukee vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - The Brewers are saying the best way for Wily Peralta to get past his struggles is to work through them by staying in the rotation. For over players this is a dream come true because the over is 9-3 in all of his starts this season including a PERFECT 6-0 at home where Peralta has an 8.19 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP. In his last two starts against the Mets Peralta has allowed 8 earned runs in less than 11 innings of work. He'll be opposed by Logan Verrett today who is making another "spot start" for the Mets. In his most recent start Verrett was rocked for 7 earned runs on 10 hits and 3 walks (while striking out none) in less than 3 innings of work against the Rockies. Granted that game was at Colorado but Milwaukee is known to be a rather hitter-friendly venue as well. The Brewers got shut down by Matt Harvey yesterday but they previously had notched at least 9 hits in 5 of their last 7 games and should have a "break out game" at the plate today as they face a pitcher that is not a regular starter. As a home dog of +100 to +125, the Brewers are on a 26-12 run to the over. Look for the over to improve to an incredible 9-1 in Milwaukee's Saturday games this season. Ironically, the Mets also have been an over team on Saturdays with a 7-2 mark this season and a 40-22 mark the last three seasons combined. Additionally, when New York enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more this season, the over has gone 7-2 this season and 38-22 the last three seasons combined. Look for another over here! *8* OVER in Milwaukee |
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06-11-16 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado vs San Diego @ 4:10 ET - With temperatures expected to be in the low 90s and the wind expected to be blowing out to left field at a good clip, this has the makings of a pitchers' nightmare in this afternoon match-up in the thin air of Colorado. The Rockies will send Tyler Chatwood to the mound and he has a tremendous home/road dichotomy. Colorado has gone a perfect 6-0 (and he has pitched well) in his road starts. But, when Chatwood is at home, the Rockies have gone 2-4 and he's been rocked to the tune of a 5.30 ERA and 6 homers allowed in 6 starts. Chatwood is facing a Padres lineup that has been swinging the bats quite well. The over is 9-4-1 in San Diego's last 14 games and the Padres have averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. There is no doubt the Rockies should be able to pound the ball as well this afternoon. Colorado will be able to "tee off" against newly acquired Erik Johnson. He's allowed 5 homers in his 2 big league starts this season and the Padres right-hander has compiled a 6.94 ERA in those outings. In his only career start at hitter-friendly Coors Field Johnson gave up 4 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work. The outcome on a hot afternoon with the wind blowing out is likely to be much worse than that. Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in San Diego's Saturday games this season and to 17-10 in Rockies home games this season. This is not the venue where Johnson would have chosen to make his Padres debut. Rockies pen struggled yesterday too and the Padres starter had to exit after retiring just one batter yesterday. Both pens now will get even more work today too! *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-11-16 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 in Minnesota vs Boston @ 2:10 ET - A very warm afternoon expected in Minnesota Saturday. With the way the Red Sox were swinging the bats last night, that is bad news for the Twins. The "wild card" here though is that the #1 offense in all of baseball is unlikely to be the only lineup crushing the ball this afternoon. Unlike last night's game (an 8-1 loss for Minnesota), the Twins should be able to match the Red Sox run for run in this one. That's because they'll face Eduardo Rodriguez. The Boston southpaw is making just his 3rd start of the season and he got crushed for 4 homers in his most recent start plus he had 3 walks while notching 0 strikeouts in that outing. Rodriguez got knocked out of the start prior to completing 6 innings. He'll be opposed by Kyle Gibson this afternoon. The Twins right-hander hasn't started in the majors since late April as he's been out with right shoulder strain. He was rehabbing in the minors. Though he had a strong start at Rochester (AAA) in his most recent outing, Gibson was far from dominant in his minor league outings as he was hit a .281 clip in his 3 starts down there and that included two at the A level! In the bigs this season he's winless with a 6.10 ERA and facing the Red Sox in his first start back is certainly not ideal as Boston is hitting .291 with a .484 slugging percentage this season! The over is 13-5 in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 24-11 L3 seasons combined in Twins games where they are a home dog of +125 to +150. The over is also 6-2 this season in Minnesota home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over was on a 13-3 run in Twins games before yesterday's push. There will be no push Saturday! *8* OVER in Minnesota |
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06-11-16 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Washington vs Philadelphia @ 12:05 ET - 5 homers were hit in last night's game. This is an afternoon game and the wind will be blowing out toward right field on a rather dry afternoon by Washington D.C. standards. That said, I expect the ball to carry very well. Both Tanner Roark of the Nationals and Aaron Nola of the Phillies have some good numbers on the season. However, Roark will be facing the Phillies for third time already this season and Nola is facing the Nationals for the fourth time already this season. That helps the hitters when they are seeing a lot of a pitcher. Additionally, Roark got rocked for 5 earned runs on 7 hits in only 3 innings of work in his most recent start. Nola has given up 20 hits in the 18 innings spanning his last 3 starts so he's starting to get a little "touched up" and that includes allowing 2 homers to the Nats when he most recently faced them. The over is 7-2 in the Phils last 9 games. The over is 12-5-1 in the Nationals last 18 games. After 15 runs were scored in yesterday's game, I'll gladly take advantage of the low posted total on this one as both lineups will be stepping to the plate with plenty of confidence on a hitter-friendly afternoon in D.C. *8* OVER in Washington |
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06-10-16 | Astros v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay vs Houston @ 7:10 ET - This undoubtedly is a contrarian play. The total dropped from an 8 to a 7.5 as most will like the under in this match-up. I like the added value now of 8 being a "win number" for us. The Rays are 20-7-1 to the over in their last 28 games but many people still don't see them as an "over" team. Certainly I respect the Rays Matt Andriese who has had a great start to this season. What I liked about "fading" him here is that Andriese has given up 21 hits in the 18 innings spanning his last 3 starts and certainly he has not been nearly as effective recently as he was early this season. The Astros have Lance McCullers on the mound and the right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts but that is also a deceiving presentation of the way McCullers has been throwing. The Houston righty has allowed 14 hits in the 12 inning spanning his last two starts. Also, McCullers has walked 13 batters in the 17 innings spanning his last three starts. The righty has a 7.65 ERA in his two road starts this season and I look for him to struggle against the Rays. The over is 12-5 in Astros games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, the over is 8-3 this season when Houston is on the road with a money line of -100 to -125. *8* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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06-10-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 101 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8.5 in Toronto vs Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - Not only is the Blue Jays Marco Estrada off of a game where he carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning, it also ended up being the 8th straight start in which he has allowed 5 hits or less. Not surprisingly, Estrada leads the AL with a .167 opponents batting average so far this season! Yesterday's match-up between these clubs went over the total but, prior to that the Orioles had been held to 8 hits or less in 7 of their last 11 games! As for the Blue Jays, yesterday's defeat was their 4th in their past 6 games and the Jays have averaged only 5.5 hits per game during this stretch. Toronto will be facing Kevin Gausman of the Orioles and he is coming off of a stellar start versus the Yankees in his last outing. Â On the season Gausman is winless but yet he's compiled a strong 3.52 ERA in his 9 starts this season. The under is 6-3 in Gausman's 9 starts this season and 9-2 in Estrada's 11 starts this season. Estrada has a 3.07 ERA in his career outings versus the Orioles while Gausman has a 3.00 ERA in his career against the Blue Jays. The under is 13-7 in O's divisional games this season. The under is 23-12 in divisional games for the Jays this season! Look for more of the same tonight as the Baltimore bullpen has a 1.96 ERA on the road this season and the Blue Jays will be able to use their elite arms out of the pen tonight because not much bullpen should be needed. Estrada has averaged nearly 8 innings per start in his last 4 starts. *8* UNDER in Toronto |
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06-10-16 | Cardinals +140 v. Pirates | Top | 9-3 | Win | 140 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* St Louis Cardinals +140 @ Pittsburgh @ 7:05 ET - Tough spot for Pittsburgh. The Pirates had to interrupt their homestand to go to Colorado for a makeup game yesterday. Pittsburgh got blasted 11-5 by the Rockies and now return home to immediately resume their home stand. The Pirates have now lost 9 of their last 13 games and I see great line value here in fading them as they certainly appear to be overpriced. Gerrit Cole gets the start for Pittsburgh and definitely has an impressive ERA on the season but he's been getting hit harder of late and that is going to catch up with him soon. "Soon" could easily be tonight as Cole has given up 32 hits in his last 25 innings of work spanning his last 4 starts. That is certainly far from the "ace status" he is being priced at in this start. The Cardinals will have Michael Wacha on the mound and the right-hander certainly has struggled this season but he is still a solid hurler that has shown some signs of snapping out of his funk. In his last two starts Wacha has given up only 10 hits while striking out 10 in the 11 innings spanning these two outings. Unlike the Pirates, the Cardinals have been heating up as they have won 8 of their last 12 games. The Cards are 9-4 this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Pirates are only 11-16 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. *10* ST LOUIS |
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06-10-16 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in New York Yankees vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - Even though C.C. Sabathia of the Yankees has been pitching quite well, the Tigers have the firepower to give him some trouble here. Detroit has averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. Sabathia has struggled (and was unable to complete 5 innings) in two of his three home starts this season. The Yanks southpaw remains winless in home starts this season. The Tigers will have Mike Pelfrey on the mound and the veteran right-hander has been fortunate with his road ERA - to say the least! Pelfrey has a 3.81 ERA away from home this season despite producing a 1.92 in his five road starts! Pelfrey is winless on the road but, as you can see from that WHIP, he's been fortunate the damage hasn't been worse. Look for the Yankees to crush him as Pelfrey is 2-4 with a 5.68 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Yankees and 6 of the 7 games went over the total. The Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Tigers, as a road dog of +125 to +175, have gone 10-5 to the over this season. That record in that price range is a solid 35-20 to the over the past three seasons combined. Coincidentally, the over is also 35-20 in all Tigers games this season. With a struggling Pelfrey on the mound, look for that season record on overs to add another easy W tonight. *10* OVER in New York Yankees |
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06-09-16 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:05 ET - There were 7 homers in last night's game and I look for more of the same this evening. It will be another "hitter-friendly" night at Yankee Stadium and the Bronx Bombers have been heating up. The Yankees are averaging 6 runs and 11.4 hits per game in their last 7 games. This is a stretch that has seen the Yanks go 5-2 including winning 3 straight. The Yankees should have no trouble staying hot against Jhoulys Chacin who allowed 6 hits and walked 4 while striking out just 1 in his most recent start - an outing that lasted only 5 innings. Chacin has a 4.85 ERA on the road this season and has never made a start at Yankee Stadium in his career. It can be an intimidating venue and Chacin has certainly shown he's vulnerable to instability in highly charged situations. Emotions will be high the Angels right-hander here after struggling so badly in his most recent start and now facing a red hot Yankees lineup. The good news for Angels fans is that Chacin should at least get plenty of run support in this one. That's because he'll be opposed by the Yankees Ivan Nova. The Yanks right-hander has been struggling badly with a 1-2 mark and 6.27 ERA in his last 3 starts. Nova has allowed 4 homers in these 3 games and, by the way, all 7 of the homers Chacin has allowed this season have come in his 7 road starts! As for Nova, he has also been hit hard by the Angels in his career starts against them. Nova has a 5.19 ERA in his career against the Angels and 5 of the 7 games went over the total. The past three seasons, when the Angels enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, the over is 19-10. Also, when off of game where they allowed 10 runs or more, the over has gone 11-4. The Yankees, in 10 games this season as a home favorite of -125 to -150, have had only 3 unders. *10* OVER in NY Yankees |
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06-09-16 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 11.5 runs in Colorado vs Pittsburgh @ 5:10 ET - Of course Coors Field is known for very light air but, based on the weather conditions today and the fact that this game starts at 3 PM local time, the ball should be carrying extremely well in Denver Thursday. Warm temperatures, light winds, ultra dry air, clear skies, it is set up to be a hitters paradise in Colorado today. Of course 11.5 is a big number but don't let that scare you away. There should be scoring early and often in a situation like this. It is a makeup game so Pittsburgh flew in just for this game. The Rockies are happy to be beginning a homestand and will be facing a pitcher, Jeff Locke, who had a solid start at Colorado earlier this season but that was on a cool evening in April. Conditions will be much different today and Locke allowed 10 earned runs on 18 hits in 12 and 1/3 innings in his two prior starts at Colorado. The over is an incredible 9-2 in Locke's 11 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Chad Bettis and he is 0-3 with an 11.47 ERA and a 2.40 WHIP in his last 3 starts as he's been getting absolutely rocked in recent outings. Bettis, despite allowing 4 earned runs on 10 hits in only 5 innings of work, saw his last start stay under the total but previously only one under had been recorded in his last six starts. The over is 17-5 in Pittsburgh's games against teams with a losing record this season. The over is also 15-7 in Pirates day games this season and the over is 17-9 when they are off of a loss. The over is 10-5 in Rockies home games with a posted total of 11 or 11.5 runs this season. Interestingly the over is 5-0 in Colorado's Thursday games this season and the Pirates are 4-1 to the over on Thursdays! This combined 9-1 (90%) trend is tested here. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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06-09-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 runs in Texas vs Houston @ 2:05 ET - Despite 10 hits in yesterday's game, the Rangers were held to just 1 run. Look for Texas to respond against the Astros Colin McHugh today after their loss yesterday ended an 8-0 run for the Rangers in the season series this year. McHugh has given up 3 homers in his last 2 starts and it will be a warm and dry afternoon @ Globe Life Park in Arlington. The ball should be carrying very well and, other than a strong start at Arizona two starts back, McHugh generally doesn't pitch deep into games and he often struggles. Other than the complete game against the Diamondbacks, his other 11 starts this season have seen McHugh average only 5.3 innings per start. He's allowed 27 hits in his last 16 and 1/3 innings against the Rangers. Also, McHugh has given up 9 earned runs in his last 10 and 1/3 innings versus Texas. The Rangers will have some pitching issues of their own in this one. Martin Perez gets the start for Texas and, though he has good career numbers against Houston, the Astros have gotten to him for 20 hits in his last 18 innings against them. In other words, the Astros have not had trouble hitting Perez and he comes into this start having allowed 16 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 4-1 in McHugh's road starts this season. The over is 11-6 in Astros day games this season and 9-5 in their games against left-handed starters. The over is 15-9 in Rangers home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Texas |
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06-08-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 9 in Texas vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday's game was a pitchers duel between Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels but I expect today's game to play out much differently based on this pitching match-up. The Astros Doug Fister has a 4.91 ERA in his career starts against Texas. The big right-hander has allowed 21 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 road outings and has been fortunate the "damage" has not been worse in those outings. Fister also walked 4 in his most recent road start. In a hitter-friendly venue tonight where the ball carries very well, both he and the Rangers Yu Darvish are likely to struggle. The Texas right-hander will be making his first start on normal rest (4 days between starts) since returning from Tommy John surgery. Darvish pitched very well in his first start back but that was against an NL foe not use to facing him. In his 2nd start he faced an AL opponent and was hit harder. Tonight he faces a team that truly has been a nemesis for him. In his last two starts against the Astros, Darvish has been rocked for 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits in just 10 innings of work. Look for more struggles today! Prior to yesterday's under, the Astros were on a 7-2 run to the over and the Rangers were on a 6-1 run to the over. Houston is 20-9 to the over in road games this season including 6-1 to the over in those with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Rangers are 15-8 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs so far this season. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-08-16 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 or 9.5 in NY Yankees vs LA Angels @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday's game finished with 9 runs and came up just short of going over the total despite having 8 runs in by the mid-point of the game. Look for tonight's game to make up for that as the wind is expected to be blowing out to right field at a good clip this evening at Yankee Stadium and there is reason to believe each of these hurlers get "lit up" tonight in the Bronx. The Angels will have Jered Weaver on the mound and he's been crushed for 16 earned runs on 18 hits (including 5 homers) in his last two visits to the Bronx. He also has a 5.22 ERA on the road this season and has long been known for having success when pitching in Anaheim but often struggling away from home. Look for that trend to continue this evening. Nathan Eovaldi gets the ball for the Yankees tonight and he was hit hard at Baltimore in his most recent start. He has a 4.50 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Angels and looked "off" against the Orioles. The Angels, before slowing down a bit in their last two games, had been very hot at the plate and I expect them to resume the hot hitting on a hitter-friendly night with the ball carrying quite well tonight. The Angels had averaged 6.1 runs per game in their last 10 games heading into this series with the Yankees. Also, the over is 10-5 in Weaver's career starts versus the Yanks. *8* OVER in NY Yankees |
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06-07-16 | Blue Jays v. Tigers +130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 130 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line +130 vs Toronto @ 7:10 ET - Though one might expect a bounce back for the Blue Jays after getting drilled 11-0 yesterday and being outhit 15 to 3, Toronto simply isn't hitting the ball well at all right now. The Blue Jays have been held to 8 hits or less in 6 of their last 7 games and to just 4 hits or less in three straight games! Now Toronto will have to face a Tigers pitcher, Matt Boyd, who took a no-hitter into the 6th inning of his last start. Boyd has 10 strikeouts and only 1 walk in his two starts since moving into the rotation after Anibal Sanchez was moved into the bullpen. The Tigers southpaw is facing a Blue Jays team that is currently struggling at the plate and this adds up to what should be a strong performance from Boyd that gets past the 6th inning mark this time! The Detroit lefty will be opposed by the Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez. Although the Toronto right-hander has some impressive numbers on the season, Sanchez has allowed 20 hits in his last 20 innings and now faces a Tigers lineup that has been knocking the cover off of the ball lately. Detroit has averaged 7 runs and 11.7 his per game in their last 7 games. The Tigers have reached double digits in hits in 6 straight games. Detroit has won 11 of their last 14 home games. The Blue Jays, although they've been hot overall (despite not hitting the ball well) have "only" won 5 of their last 9 road games. I love having the home dog Tigers here considering how strong they have been at Comerica Park of late. *10* DETROIT |
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06-07-16 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +105 in Cincinnati vs St Louis @ 7:10 ET - A total of 9.5 in a national league game not played at Coors Field in Colorado certainly may seem high. But, in this case, it is absolutely justified. The wind, though not strong, will be blowing out at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and certainly the Reds home park has earned its reputation as a hitter-friendly venue. Cincy has been swinging the bats very well. The Reds have averaged 7.1 runs per game in their last 10 games and are confident at the plate thanks to a 6-3 stretch in their last 9 games. The Cardinals enter this game off of back to back wins that saw St Louis produce a total of 13 runs on 22 hits. The over is 12-5 in the Cards last 17 games. The Reds have had just 5 unders in their last 21 games! Though Mike Leake has solid numbers for the Cardinals this season, he spent many years as a Red and Great American Ball Park was not kind to him as he notoriously produced a high ERA and a high BAA in his home outings for Cincinnati. Also, Leake comes into this start having allowed 3 homers in his last 2 starts and the Reds John Lamb comes into this outing having allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts. The Cincinnati southpaw has a 5.58 ERA on the season and Cardinals games against left-handed starters have gone 10-4 to the over this season. Also, the over is 17-9 in St Louis road games this season and the Cards are 20-9 to the over this season when off of a win. The Reds are 4-0 to the over this season and 7-0 to the over the past three seasons combined when they are a home dog in a price range of +150 to +175. The over is 17-10 this season in Cincy home games and 15-7 in Reds divisional games. Against right-handed starters, the over is 28-12 (70%) in Cincinnati games this season. Also, after a game where they allowed 10 runs or more (keep in mind their bullpen is atrocious), the Reds have gone 5-1 to the over this season and 17-6 to the over the past three seasons combined. As you can see from all of the above, there is plenty of reason to expect this match-up to reach a total of double digits in runs. *10* OVER in Cincinnati |
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06-07-16 | Royals v. Orioles -126 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Baltimore Orioles Money Line -125 vs Kansas City @ 7:05 ET - Ubaldo Jimenez of the Orioles certainly does not have good numbers on the season but there have been signs recently that he might be ready to turn the corner. He took a no-hitter into the 5th inning against Boston (before "the wheels came off") in his most recent start. The Red Sox then got to him for some damage but the Royals certainly are not hitting like the BoSox have been this season. Tuesday I look for Jimenez to take advantage of a Kansas City lineup that is struggling. They were unable to take advantage of facing a struggling Mike Wright yesterday and it marked the 5th straight loss for KC. The Royals have scored a total of only 7 runs during this 5-game losing streak. Also, with only 5 hits in yesterday's game, Kansas City has now been held to an average of only 4.5 hits per game in their last 4 games. The Orioles have certainly been going in the opposite direction of late. Baltimore has averaged 7 runs per game in going 5-1 in their last 6 games. The O's will be facing a Royals starter who is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP on the season. Look for Yordano Ventura to again struggle on Tuesday. The Royals are an ugly 11-20 on the road this season and the Orioles are now a fantastic 22-11 at home this season after Baltimore's 4-1 win over Kansas City yesterday. Great line value with the small price on the home team O's in this one. *8* BALTIMOREÂ |
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06-06-16 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +100 in Texas vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday the Astros were at home against the A's and their game stayed under the total. However, Houston had gone over the total in 6 of their 7 prior games. Also, the over is 7-2 this season in Astros road games where they are priced from -100 to -125. Houston is also 5-1 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Rangers game stayed under the total yesterday but Texas is still 14-8 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Rangers are 5-2 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Texas will have Colby Lewis on the mound and he is known for struggling in his home starts. In 2014 he went 3-9 with a 5.90 ERA at home. Last season Lewis compiled a 5.07 ERA at home. This season Lewis has been fantastic on the road but he has a 4.50 ERA at home where he has been hit at a .288 clip. He just faced the Astros in Houston a little over two weeks ago and had success but the fact this is a quick second look for the Astros plus the fact Lewis struggles at home combines to mean this outing is likely to be quite different! Mike Fiers gets the start for Houston and his solid effort versus the Rangers a little over two weeks ago was a rarity. It produced only the 2nd under that he has had this season compared to 8 overs! The Astros are winless in Fiers road starts this season and all 3 went over the total as he has compiled an ugly 8.04 ERA away from home. The Rangers had 5 straight overs before yesterday's under. That said, look for both teams to resume their hot hitting ways Monday as the pitching match-up and home/road dichotomies of these two hurlers is likely to bring out the best in each lineup. The Rangers have averaged 6.7 runs per game in their last 10 games. The Astros have averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 8 games. A 7-6 type game here would not surprise me in the least. *10* OVER in Texas |
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06-06-16 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 8 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs -118 in Philadelphia vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies Adam Morgan has allowed 12 earned runs on 17 hits (including 5 homers!) in the 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts. One of those starts came against the Cubs and the southpaw now has to face them again on a mild night in Philly with the wind expected to be blowing out. This one could get ugly quick for Morgan but I also look for the resurgent Phillies to get their fair share against the Cubs Jon Lester. The Phils have some sticks in their lineup that have enjoyed success against him and the Phillies are getting a quick second look at him as it was Lester who was matched up with Morgan on May 27th in Chicago. The Cubs southpaw has seen only 1 of his 4 road starts stay under the total this season and note that only 1 of Morgan's 4 home starts have stayed under the total this year. The Phillies hit 3 homers yesterday and scored 8 runs in their win over the Brewers and that will help the Philadelphia lineup to step into the box with some confidence against Lester as they now get a shot at him at home in a situation where it will be a hitter-friendly night at the ballpark. The over is 11-3 the last three seasons combined when the Phils are a home dog of +175 or more. The Cubs are 5-2 to the over this season as a road favorite of -175 or more. *8* OVER in Philadelphia |
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06-06-16 | Angels +149 v. Yankees | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Los Angeles Angels Money Line +150 @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - After blowing a late lead against the Orioles yesterday and losing, the Yankees have now lost 8 of their last 12 games. Production on offense continues to be a problem for the Yanks as, with yesterday's 3-1 loss, the Yankees have been held to only 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 12 games. That's bad news for the Yanks as they now take on an Angels team that has won 8 of their last 12 road games after rallying for a tight 5-4 win over the Pirates yesterday. The Angels are now an incredible 7-1 this season as a road dog of +125 to +175. The Angels can improve to 7-2 in Monday games this season with another win tonight and, unlike the Yankees, the Halos offense is red hot. With yesterday's win the Angels have now scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games. During this stretch the Halos are averaging 6.1 runs per game. Though Masahiro Tanaka has been pitching very well recently, those outings all came on the road. In his home starts this season Tanaka has a 4.55 ERA. Although the Angels Matt Shoemaker is in a similar situation (pitching well in recent starts but all at home) and is now on the road, you can't ignore how dominant he has been. Shoemaker has been piling up the strikeouts and has 31 K's in less than 23 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts and he's compiled a 1.59 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP during this stretch. Look for the Yankees to drop to 8-14 this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. *8* LA ANGELS |
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06-05-16 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 runs in St Louis vs San Francisco @ 8:05 ET - The whole world is likely to flock to the under here and I love fading the masses. What people see here is that Jake Peavy is off of back to back strong starts. However, he faced a Padres team that certainly is not known for their hitting prowess and Peavy faced a Braves team that possesses arguably the worst offense in baseball. That said, let's look at what he did before these two starts. The Giants right-hander got crushed by the Cubs in a start where he gave up 7 earned runs and didn't even last 2 innings. That start was at home but it's not like things have gone well for Peavy on the road either. He is 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA in his 5 starts away from San Francisco this season. Tonight Peavy faces a Cardinals lineup that is rejuvenated after rallying from a 4-0 deficit yesterday. The Cards have now won 5 of their last 8 games and they've averaged 7.6 runs per game in the 5 victories. As a home favorite of -125 to -150, the Cardinals are 6-1 to the over this season. When off of a win the Cards are 19-9 to the over this year. The Giants are 28-14 to the over the past three seasons when they are a road dog of +125 to +150. This season San Francisco is 15-7 to the over when off of a loss. The Giants have scored at least 4 runs in 9 of their last 11 games. San Fran should have no trouble with the offerings of Carlos Martinez. The right-hander is off of a strong start at free-swinging Milwaukee but he previously got rocked for 10 earned runs in 10 innings in his 2 prior starts and those were both in St Louis. Martinez is back home again for tonight's match-up with the Giants and, before shutting out the Brewers in his most recent start at Milwaukee, he had given up at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Struggles resume for him tonight and both line-ups are "feeling it" right now at the plate! *10* OVER in St Louis |
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06-05-16 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | 6-12 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Atlanta Braves Run Line +1.5 runs -127 @ LA Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - As bad as the Braves certainly have been this season this is a tremendous value spot based on the pitching match-up as well as the fact that the Dodgers just are not hitting the ball well right now. They had their chance yesterday to pound a struggling hurler, Bud Norris, and still did not impress and they face a much tougher match-up today. The Dodgers have averaged only 5 HITS per game in their last 7 games...that is not RUNS that is HITS! That is insanely bad offensive production and they now faces Braves starter Matt Wisler who is holding hitters to a .176 batting average in his 5 games (4 starts) away from home this season. Also, in his 3 day games (2 starts) he has compiled a stellar 1.20 ERA so far this season. He nearly outdueled Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw when he faced him in late April and he's certainly capable of outdueling Scott Kazmir. I am well aware of the fact that the veteran southpaw has pitched better recently compared to his early season outings for the Dodgers. However, prior to surprisingly strong back to back starts for the left-hander, Kazmir had only 2 quality starts in his last 8 outings! That means he either wasn't lasting 6 innings or wasn't holding the opposition under 3 runs or both (and there were a lot of rough outings for him). The Braves can do enough to support Wisler here and, even if Atlanta doesn't get the outright win, i see them losing this game by just a single run. *8* ATLANTA +1.5 runs |
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06-05-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +112 in Texas vs Seattle @ 3:05 ET - With yesterday's 10-4 Seattle loss going over the total easily, the Mariners have now been a part of a 11 straight games going over the total! I fully expect them to make it 12 in a row on Sunday. The Mariners have averaged 7.6 runs per game during this 11 game stretch and they're matched up with a Rangers club that has averaged 6.8 runs per game during their current 8-2 run their last 10 games. As you can see, both teams are swinging the bats extremely well and neither starting pitcher today is overpowering. The Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts and these came against Oakland, Cincinnati, and San Diego. The A's are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and the Reds and Padres are both hitting under .240 this season! Now Iwakuma must deal with a potent (and red hot!) Rangers lineup on a mild afternoon in Texas with the wind blowing out to right field at a good clip. Iwakuma struggles against left-handed batters and the Rangers could have as many as 5 left-handed bats plus a switch-hitter (Jurickson Profar) in the lineup this afternoon. Of course the Rangers sticks are unlikely to be the only bats doing damage today. The Mariners should crush Derek Holland. Yes, the Rangers southpaw had a successful outing against them earlier this season but, in Holland's two prior starts versus the M's (including one in Texas) he gave up 12 earned runs in less than 12 innings of work! In Holland's 4 home starts this season, only one stayed under and the over is 8-3 in Iwakuma's starts this season. The over is 14-7 in Rangers home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season and the over is 13-6 in Texas games against teams with a winning record this year. There is simply no reason that the Mariners shouldn't make it 12 overs in a row this afternoon! *10* OVER in Texas Sunday. |
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06-05-16 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 9 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs -105 in Cincinnati vs Washington @ 1:10 ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out to left this afternoon in Cincinnati. With yesterday's 6-3 Reds win, the over is now 27-12 this season in Cincinnati's games against right-handed starters this season. Also, Tanner Roark is certainly no Stephen Strasburg, whom the Reds defeated yesterday. There were 5 homers hit in yesterday's game and with the wind carrying the ball very well again today, we should see a slugfest erupt. Even though Roark has solid numbers this season, he allowed two homers in his most recent start at Cincinnati which was just last season. Also, he's facing a Reds lineup that is simply surging with confidence right now. Cincy is averaging 7 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Nationals certainly should join the hitting frenzy today as well. The Nats will be able to "tee off" against the Reds Jon Moscot who allowed 4 homers in his most recent start. Overall on the season, the Cincinnati right-hander has a 7.13 ERA and he has given up 8 home runs in his 4 starts. As a big home dog of +150 to +175, Cincy is 6-0 to the over the past three seasons combined. Also, with yesterday's over, the Reds are now 11-5 to the over in day games this season. The over is now 8-4-1 in Washington's last 13 games. *8* OVER in Cincinnati Sunday |
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06-04-16 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 106 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Baltimore vs New York Yankees @ 7:15 ET - Ivan Nova gets the start for the Yankees and he has compiled an 8.21 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Orioles. He comes into this start having allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and certainly Baltimore's lineup is filled with confidence right now! The Orioles have won 3 straight games and averaged scoring 10.3 runs per game in these three blowouts! Overall, the over is 8-1-1 in the O's last 10 games and I highly doubt that Nova is going to slow them down. Not only is Nova having some current struggles but, again, it is the match-up issue here that will be a key as the 8.21 ERA in Nova's last 3 starts against Baltimore is indicative of many Orioles hitters simply 'having his number'. The Yankees have mostly been an "under team" recently but a lot of that has also had to do with the Yanks struggles against southpaws. Saturday the Bronx Bombers will be facing a right-hander who is not overly dominant. Tyler Wilson has pitched decently since moving into the rotation but he does appear to be fading. In his last three starts, Wilson has a 5.30 ERA and has given up 4 homers. Wilson is still winless in home starts this season and in his 7 overall starts this season only 2 have resulted in an under. The over is 6-2 in Orioles Saturday games this season and the over is an incredible 12-2 in Baltimore games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. The O's bullpen has been much more hittable of late and has helped result in this factoid: with allowing 10 hits to the Yanks yesterday, the Orioles have allowed double digits in hits in 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 games! Look for more of the same today as another 6-5 game with both teams reaching double digits in hits certainly is a strong probability again today. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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06-04-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -116 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -115 vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET - Marcus Stroman of the Blue Jays is 5-1 on the season while the Boston's Steven Wright is only 5-4 on the year. However, the fact is that the knuckle-baller Wright had a stellar 2.45 ERA on the season that is nearly half of what Stroman's ERA is so far this year. Also, while Wright seems to be getting tougher to hit with each start he makes (16 in his last 24 innings), Stroman is struggling. The Toronto right-hander has given up 43 hits in last 31 and 2/3 innings. This included a pair of outings in his most recent three starts where he got rocked for 7 earned runs each time. The Blue Jays did win yesterday's game and have been hot but this is still a Red Sox team that is tough to beat at Fenway Park. Before yesterday's loss, Boston had won 13 of their last 16 home games. The Red Sox are hitting .303 at home this season and they are the top hitting team in the majors. The Blue Jays are hitting .227 in road games this season and that ranks them right near the bottom of the entire league. The Red Sox have lost 3 straight games which matches their longest losing streak of the season. So far this year Boston is a perfect 3-0 when they enter a game on a 3-game losing streak. The Red Sox have won those 3 "bounce back" games by an average margin of 2.7 runs per game. Look for the BoSox to improve to 6-3 in Saturday games this season while dropping the Blue Jays to 2-7 in Saturday games. *10* BOSTON |
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06-04-16 | Rays v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs +100 in Minnesota vs Tampa Bay @ 4:10 ET - The wind will be blowing out at a nice clip this afternoon in Minnesota. A day game with the wind blowing out is always a nice recipe for an over and I love the pitching match-up here to be conducive to plenty of offense. The Rays Matt Andriese is off of a strong start at Kansas City but his strikeout numbers were down. Also, in his prior two starts he gave up 7 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings for a 5.56 ERA. The point is that Andriese is coming back down to earth after some surprising success after his call up from AAA ball. He'll be opposed by Ervin Santana of the Twins who gave up 6 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 4 innings of work in his most recent home start. Also, when Santana most recently faced the Rays (in August) he gave up 5 earned runs on 8 hits in less than 3 innings of work. Yesterday's game between these clubs stayed under the total but, prior to that, Tampa Bay had gone over the total in 4 straight games and the Twins had gone over the total in 8 of their last 10 games. Minnesota has averaged 10 hits per game in their last 11 games while the Rays have averaged 9 hits per game in their last 8 road games. The over is 6-2 in Tampa Bay's last 8 road games. The over is 19-11 this season in Twins games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Minnesota |
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06-04-16 | Brewers v. Phillies -104 | 6-3 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs Milwaukee @ 3:05 ET - The last time Jeremy Hellickson pitched, the game featured one of the worst managerial decisions I have seen in a long time. With the Phillies up 2 to 1 in the bottom of the 7th and two outs and nobody on, Hellickson was due up. He had been masterful in the game and completely dominated the Nationals lineup and had only thrown 79 pitches in the game. At that pace he could have pitched a complete game and only thrown 100 pitches but the Phillies manager pulled him for a pinch-hitter, the Nats got 3 runs in the top of the 8th and the Phils ended up losing 4 to 3. Hellickson will be fresh tonight after throwing only 79 pitches Monday and he's hungry to get the win after getting screwed out of a win in that Monday outing. The Phillies had a long losing streak going before getting the win over the Brewers yesterday. The Phils also had a long streak of losses against Milwaukee before notching the victory last night. Look for that to get the Phils going in the right direction again and Hellickson is in fantastic form right now with a stellar 2.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be opposed by the Brewers Junior Guerra who has been hit quite hard in 4 of his 6 starts this season. The only two he wasn't hit hard in were the outings against two of the worst lineups in baseball, the Braves and Padres. In each of his other 4 starts Guerra allowed at least 3 earned runs and it shouldn't take much run support for Hellickson to get the win today as his strong form continues on the mound this afternoon. Look for the Phillies to improve to 6-3 in Saturday games while dropping the Brewers to 1-8 on Saturdays this season. *8* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-03-16 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* UNDER 8.5 in Houston vs Oakland @ 8:10 ET - The under is 9-3-1 in the Astros last 13 homes games after yesterday's 3-0 shutout loss at home to the Diamondbacks. Today the Houston sticks will face Jesse Hahn who held them scoreless in 6 and 2/3 innings of work earlier this season in late April. Hahn has allowed only 11 hits in his last 12 innings on the mound but he's been victimized by some big hits. He should again be able to shutdown the free-swinging Astros tonight. Houston will have Doug Fister on the mound and he shut down the A's earlier this season on May 1st when he held them to just 1 earned run in 6 and 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has been one of the Astros most consistent starts and has a solid 3.06 ERA in his last 8 starts. Overall, Fister's last 9 starts have produced only one over! The under is 4-2 in the A's last 6 games and they held their opponents to an average of just 2.7 runs per game. Oakland has won five straight games and they were off yesterday. The A's are 3-1 to the under this season after an off day. The under is also 15-9 in Oakland games this season when they are off of a win. The Astros have played 20 home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this season. Only 30% (6) of those 20 games have resulted in an over! The Astros usually respond after getting shutout but they do it with pitching. Houston is 17-9 the past three seasons after getting shutout and only 9 of those 26 Astros games went over the total. *8* UNDER 8.5 in Houston |
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06-03-16 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati vs Washington @ 7:10 ET - The over is 3-0 in the Nationals Gio Gonzalez last three starts. The Nats southpaw has struggled badly in the last two outings with 13 earned runs allowed in the two starts which have spanned less than 10 innings of work. Gonzalez will be opposed by the Reds Brandon Finnegan tonight. The Cincinnati southpaw has only 1 win even though he's made 11 starts this season. Finnegan is winless in his five home starts and the over is 4-1 in those 5 outings. The Red southpaw has walked 4 batters or more in 3 of his last 4 starts overall. Also, he has a 6.10 ERA in his last 4 home starts. 7 of the Nationals last 11 games have gone over the total and Washington has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 wins. The Reds have had just 1 under in their last 7 games and they've got their confidence going at the plate again thanks to a road trip that wrapped up with visits to hitter friendly Milwaukee and ultra hitter-friendly Colorado. The Reds have scored an average of 7 runs per game in their last 7 games and have averaged 11.5 hits per game in their last 6 games. With their confidence at the plate and now back home and facing a struggling Gonzalez, this should turn into a slugfest because Finnegan's struggles at home are likely to continue. The Reds southpaw faced Washington in September and struggled badly while Gonzalez faced Cincy once last season and he also struggled in that outing. As a home dog of +150 to 175 the past three seasons, the over has gone 5-0 in Reds games! Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Washington's Friday games this season. *10* OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati |
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06-03-16 | Royals +159 v. Indians | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Kansas City Royals +160 @ Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - Tough late loss for the Royals last night and I won't hesitate to back them again tonight. Kansas City had won 6 straight games and 13 of their last 16 before blowing last night's two-run lead by giving up one run in the 8th and two runs in the 9th for the loss. It was the Indians 2nd straight "walk-off win" but the Tribe had previously lost 7 of their last 11 games. The Royals will have their regular closer available tonight. Even though he wasn't available last night, KC still had plenty of solid bullpen arms and their pen remains one of the most vaunted in the majors. The Royals are a big dog tonight because of being on the road and because of Danny Salazar being on the mound for the Indians. The Cleveland right-hander has fantastic full-season numbers but the key is that he's faded a bit in recent outings and that hasn't been properly factored into this line. In his last two starts, Salazar has given up 6 earned runs on 14 hits in only 10 innings of work. Edinson Volquez gets the start for the Royals and his full-season road numbers don't do him justice because they've been skewed by a rare, rough performance. The fact is that Volquez has given up 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his 11 starts this season! Unlike Salazar, Volquez has actually pitched better of late and he has compiled a 3.50 ERA in his last 4 starts. The Royals are 4-1 in the 5 divisional starts that Volquez has made this season. Also, in the Indians Salazar's starts that have been decided by 5 runs or less this season Cleveland has gone 0-5. I seriously doubt the Indians are going to win this game in a blowout. That said, I am grabbing the underdog value and looking for the Indians to drop to 0-6 in Salazar starts this season that are games decided by a margin of 5 runs or less. *10* KANSAS CITY |
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06-03-16 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Chicago Cubs Run Line -1.5 runs vs Arizona @ 2:20 ET - This match-up simply has blowout written all over it and the price to take the run line with the Cubs is certainly well within reason. This is particularly true when you consider that 30 of the Cubs 37 wins this season have come by 2 runs or more. The fact is that the Cubs generally don't "just win" they truly dominate in most of their victories. With the pitching mismatch of John Lackey for Chicago versus Archie Bradley for the Diamondbacks, this play easily made my card for Friday. Lackey is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his 5 home starts this season. He's on top of his game right now for sure as the veteran right-hander has allowed just 15 hits in his last 28 innings. He now takes on an Arizona lineup that has averaged only 7 hits per game in their last 4 contests. The only reason the Dbacks got the win yesterday (a 3-0 shutout) was thanks to a fantastic pitching performance from Zach Greinke. But today they have Bradley on the mound and he is off of a strong start but it came against a Padres lineup that has struggled in most of their games this season. In Bradley's two prior starts he got rocked for 9 earned runs on 14 hits and 7 walks. As a result, Bradley has a 7.84 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in road outings this season. 25 of the Diamondbacks 32 losses this season have come by a margin of at least 2 runs and the Dbacks are on a 62-115 run in games against teams with a winning record. The Cubs have won 8 of 9 and stay hot here. *8* CHICAGO CUBS Run Line -1.5 runs |
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06-02-16 | Royals +151 v. Indians | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Kansas City Royals +150 @ Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - This is insane line value for the Royals. They are the hottest team in the league with 6 straight wins. They have shown insane ability to notch comeback wins (even of the most improbable variety) in recent games. That said, Kansas City is extremely undervalued here considering that Carlos Carrasco will be making his first start since late April. The Indians right-hander was out with a hamstring injury and now makes his first MLB start in nearly 6 weeks. He had a rehab start with Akron in the minors and certainly did not looks sharp with 7 hits allowed in 4 innings of work. I don't expect Carrasco to come out and mow down a red hot and ultra confident Royals lineup. He also will be on a pitch count here and so he's unlikely to get very deep into this game which could be taxing to an Indians bullpen that had to put in extra work in yesterday's extra inning victory over the Rangers. Yordano Ventura gets the start for the Royals and, although his recent starts have not been overly impressive, let's not forget that the Indians .255 team batting average ranks them only in the middle of the pack in the AL while the Royals are ranked 2nd in the AL. Ventura has been victimized by some big hits in his recent starts as his 22 hits allowed in 19 innings would not lead to you believe that he would have a 6.27 ERA during this stretch. Look for him to respond with a strong effort Thursday. The Royals are 7-3 in Ventura's starts this season. Also, Kansas City is 13-5 in divisional games this year. The Indians are off of a win but had lost 7 of their 11 prior games. Also, when off of a win this season Cleveland has a losing record and has cost their backers 4.6 net units when playing after a win in their prior game. *8* KANSAS CITYÂ |
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06-02-16 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 107 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore vs Boston @ 7:05 ET - After yesterday's slugfest there is really no reason not to expect more of the same today. What is helping to keep the total down on this game is the impressive full season stats of Rick Porcello. That is good news because his current form is not what it was earlier this season and the Red Sox right-hander truly seems to be coming back down to earth after his surprising early season success. Porcello has given up 9 run (8 earned) on 15 hits in 11 and 2/3 innings of work spanning his last two road starts. This 6.17 ERA on the road in his last two outings could certainly balloon even more Thursday evening as he faces an Orioles lineup surging with confidence after piling up 13 runs on 14 hits in yesterday's game. Baltimore has averaged 9.3 hits and 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 games. Facing the Orioles has been a nightmare for Porcello in recent meetings as he has given up 17 earned runs on 28 hits in less than 17 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts versus the O's. The only good news for Red Sox fans tonight is that Porcello should get plenty of run support. Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound for the Orioles tonight and he is an awful current form plus has a history of struggles versus Boston. Jimenez is 2-6 with a 7.00 ERA in his 13 career starts against the Red Sox. Also, Jimenez comes into this outing 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. Boston has had just 2 unders in their last 9 games and the Orioles have had just 1 under in their last 6 games. The over is 12-5 in Baltimore games against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 11-2 this season in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 11-3 in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. It's "getaway day" for the BoSox today and I look for the over to improve to 5-1 in Boston's Thursday games this season. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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06-02-16 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 7.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Houston vs Arizona @ 2:10 ET - On the surface this looks like a pitchers' duel considering it is Zack Greinke versus Dallas Keuchel. However, there are a multitude of reasons to expect this one to get over the total including this: with yesterday's game going over the closing total of 8.5 runs, the over is now a PERFECT 12-0 in Arizona's last dozen games and a PERFECT 4-0 in Houston's last 4 games! Also, the over is 11-3 in Diamondbacks day games this season and 11-5 in Dbacks game against left-handed starters and 15-6 in Arizona's games against teams with a losing record. As for Houston, the over is 10-4 in their day games and 10-3 in Astros games against teams with a losing record. Keuchel had a magical season last year for Houston including a phenomenal performance in his home games on the season. However, the Astros have only gone 1-3 in his home starts this season and the southpaw has compiled a 4.97 ERA in those outings which is nothing close to the fantastic numbers he put up last season. The left-hander is off of a strong start against the Angels at LA but Keuchel allowed 5 earned runs or more in 5 of his 7 prior starts as he's labored often in his outings this year. Although Greinke has been pitching better of late, the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 outings. Considering the low total here and the combined 16-0 run to the over that these teams share, there is value in grabbing the over in this day game Thursday. *8* OVER in Houston |
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06-02-16 | Giants v. Braves OVER 7 | 6-0 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7 in Atlanta vs San Francisco @ 12:10 ET - With Madison Bumgarner on the mound this total is being kept down low. This is offering great line value for the over because the Braves Aaron Blair is likely to get rocked. Not only is he winless in his 6 starts this season while compiling a 6.67 ERA, he also has been especially roughed up in his last 3 starts as he's been rocked to the tune of an 11.81 ERA in those outings. A big concern for the Atlanta right-hander in this match-up is that he has struggled to get left-handed batters out at the MLB level and the Giants lineup will be loaded with dangerous left-handed lumber today. As strong as Bumgarner has certainly been for San Francisco, the over is 4-1 in his road starts this season and he has allowed 5 homers in his 5 outings away from home. The over is also 14-6 in San Francisco's day games this season and 3-0 in Blair's last 3 starts for Atlanta. Also, there have only been 2 unders in the 8 home games the Braves have had this season that had a posted total of 7 runs or less. Take advantage of the low number Thursday. *8* OVER 7 in Atlanta |
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06-01-16 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Houston vs Arizona @ 8:10 ET - With yesterday's 8-3 win, not only have the Astros won 7 of their last 8 games, they have scored 8 runs in three straight games. Houston is averaging about 10 hits per game during this 8 game stretch and they should have no problems with the offerings of Robbie Ray. The Diamondbacks struggling southpaw allowed 5 earned runs on 9 hits (including 2 homers) to the light-hitting Padres in his most recent start. That doesn't bode well for Ray in terms of now facing a much stronger, and much hotter, lineup in the form of the Astros in Houston tonight. Ray has a 1.67 WHIP on the season so don't be fooled by his "respectable" 4.50 ERA on the season. He has been far worse on the mound than what that ERA would lead you to believe. Ray won't be the only hurler getting pounded tonight. The Astros Michael Fiers got rocked in a pitcher-friendly park in his most recent start. At Anaheim to face the Los Angeles Angels, Fiers gave up 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. The Houston right-hander has allowed 10 homers in his 9 starts this season and now faces the Diamondbacks at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. Fiers has given up 10 earned runs in his last 10 innings against the Dbacks and Arizona has got to him for 3 homers in those two starts against him. The over is 7-2 in Fiers starts this season. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Ray's last four starts and 6 of his last 7. The over is 14-6 in Arizona's 20 games against teams with a losing record this season. The over is 9-3 in Astros games against teams with a losing record. The over is also 8-4 in Houston's games against left-handed starters this season. *10* OVER in Houston |
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06-01-16 | Red Sox -110 v. Orioles | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line -110 @ Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - This is a case of two teams heading opposite directions. With yesterday's 6-2 win the Red Sox have now won 8 of their last 12 games. Boston has averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch and they continue to prove that they are the top offense in all of baseball. As for the Orioles, yesterday's loss drops them to 4-8 in their last 12 games. The O's have been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of those 12 games! In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, Baltimore has gone a money-burning 13-19 the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 23-11 in night games this season and this evening I look for them to improve to 8-2 in Wednesday games with a another solid win. Boston's Joe Kelly is off of a rough start against Toronto but it had a lot to do with having trouble with Josh Donaldson. Overall, Kelly has looked quite strong since returning from the disabled list as he has struck out 15 in 11 and 1/3 innings. The Red Sox right-hander should enjoy success against the free-swinging Orioles. Baltimore will have Mike Wright on the mound and Wright has not been "right" of late! He has only lasted more than 5 and 1/3 innings ONCE in his last FOUR starts. Wright has a 5.16 ERA this season and has an 11.25 ERA in his career outings versus the Red Sox. This is a great spot to back the #1 team in the AL against a struggling divisional foe who also has a subpar pitcher on the mound. HOT versus NOT here and that raises this play to my highest rating. *10* BOSTON |
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06-01-16 | Twins +119 v. A's | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Minnesota Twins Money Line +125 @ Oakland @ 3:35 ET - This looks like a "trap game" as the Twins have only won a fourth (7 of 28) road games this season and yet the A's have been installed as a very small home favorite here. The fact is that Minnesota is fully capable of springing the upset today as they have a huge pitching edge on the mound. Also, prior to losing back to back games, Minny had won 4 straight games. Overall, the Twins production on offense has been much better of late as they have scored 4 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games. Minnesota has averaged 5.2 runs per game during this stretch and they should have no trouble with the offerings of Sean Manaea. The Athletics left-hander is 1-3 with a 7.03 ERA in his 6 starts this season. Manaea has allowed 8 runs on 15 hits in the 12+ innings spanning his last two starts so it's not like he's showing any signs of a dramatic turnaround. Conversely, the Twins Pat Dean has been very impressive in his first two starts since moving into the Minny rotation. Dean knocked off Toronto (deep postseason run last year) and Seattle (with Felix Hernandez on the mound). These victories were not flukes for Dean either. The southpaw went 6 innings in one start and 7 innings in the other and he allowed just 2 earned runs in each start while allowing a total of only 7 hits in the 13 innings! The underdog Twins are worth the investment here against an Oakland team that has had it's fair share of struggles at home this season. *8* MINNESOTA |
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06-01-16 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 in Milwaukee vs St Louis @ 1:40 ET - With yesterday's 10-3 loss to the Cardinals, the Brewers have now lost back to back games. However, this was preceded by a 5-1 run for Milwaukee where they averaged 5 runs per game and their offense should be able to get back on track against Jaime Garcia today. The Cardinals southpaw is 1-2 with a 6.28 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The over is 11-6 this season in Milwaukee's games against left-handed starters. There is no doubt that the Cardinals should stay hot at the plate this afternoon. Even though the Brewers Zach Davies has some better numbers in his last 3 starts, he faced the Reds and Mets and Padres. Those are 3 of the worst hitting teams in the majors! On Wednesday Davies is facing a Cardinals team whose .460 slugging percentage this season ranks them 3rd out of all 30 teams in the majors! The Cards have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 13 games and there is no reason that their lineup won't keep rolling this afternoon. The over is 17-8 in St Louis road games this season and 11-4 in their games against teams with a losing record and 11-5 in their day games this year. In games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Brewers are now 12-6 to the over this season. *8* OVER in Milwaukee |
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05-31-16 | Rays v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City vs Tampa Bay @ 8:15 ET - With yesterday's 6-2 win, the Royals are not only 7-0 to the over in their last 7 games, Kansas City has averaged 7 runs per game and 12 hits per game during this red hot stretch. I expect the Royals to remain on fire at the plate as they face the Rays Drew Smyly tonight. The Tampa Bay southpaw has begun to struggle after a strong start to the season. Smyly has given up 8 earned runs in his last two starts and has allowed four homers during this rough stretch. Smyly also has allowed three homers in his last two starts against the Royals. This gives us what we need for one half of the slugfest tonight as the Royals are also 3-1 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more and the over is 6-2 in Kansas City's Tuesday games  this season. The Rays should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight. The Royals will be sending Dillon Gee to the mound and the right-hander is 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in his three starts since moving into the rotation. The over is 9-1-1 in the Rays last 11 road games and after a loss this season (26 before yesterday's defeat), an under has resulted in the next game just 10 times in 26 occurrences. Look for the Rays sticks to respond after a tough time in their last two games. Gee just isn't getting the job done right now for the Royals and the Rays sticks will take advantage. Take advantage of the low total here and, as long as we hold off the rain in this one (could be scattered storms in the KC area tonight) we should be able to cash a rather easy over in this one. *10* OVER in Kansas City |
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05-31-16 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 7.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Cleveland vs Texas @ 6:10 ET - The Rangers Colby Lewis lasted just 5 innings against the Angels in his most recent start as he was rocked for 6 earned runs. The Texas right-hander has struggled in his career outings versus the Indians including his two most recent starts which were both last season. Lewis got rocked by Cleveland for 16 runs (14 earned) on 18 hits in the less than 8 innings of work that spanned the two outings. He also has allowed 2 homers in each of his last two starts at Progressive Field. The Indians have really had their sticks going after a slow start to the season. As a result, the over is now 12-5-1 in Cleveland's last 18 games. The Rangers have won 8 of their last 10 games and Texas has scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 8 games. With yesterday's 9-2 loss to the Rangers, the over is an amazing 17-6 in Indians home games this season. Even though Cleveland got blasted on the scoreboard, the Indians actually matched the Rangers for hits as they each notched 11 yesterday. Cleveland has averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 14 games and they've reached double digits in hits in half of those games. They should pound Lewis. The Indians will have Corey Kluber on the mound who certainly has put up some good numbers at times but he's 1-3 with a 4.67 ERA in home games this season. Kluber has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his 4 home starts so far this year. The over is 6-2 in Rangers Tuesday games this season and, with an average of 10 hits per game in their last 8 games, look for Texas to stay hot at the plate as Kluber's home struggles continue. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-31-16 | Padres v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 4-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 in Seattle vs San Diego @ 3:40 ET - With yesterday's 9-3 Mariners win, Seattle games have now gone over the total in 6 straight and Padres games have gone over the total in 4 straight. San Diego will have James Shields on the mound Tuesday afternoon and the veteran right-hander has seen the Padres go 2-8 in his 10 starts so far this season. Though he has a solid ERA on the season, Shields has been hit at a .294 clip in the month of May. In other words, he's been somewhat fortunate to maintain such a low ERA despite being very hittable in his last 5 starts. As for the Mariners, they'll have Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound Tuesday afternoon and he has been hit at a .286 clip on the season. The Mariners righty has also gone 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in day games this season. The M's have gone 1-3 in Iwakuma's 4 home starts this season and he has compiled a 5.55 ERA in those outings. The Padres have not impressed at the plate this season but they are hitting the ball better of late. San Diego has averaged nearly 5 runs per game in their last 6 games while averaging 10 hits per game during this stretch. The Mariners lineup has been on fire as they've averaged nearly 6 runs per game in their last 11 contests and Seattle has averaged 10 hits per game in those 11 match-ups. Interestingly, the over is 7-1 in Mariners Tuesday games this season and 37-16 the last 3 seasons combined. The over is 5-2 in Seattle games where they are a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season. As for the Padres, look for the over to improve to 7-3 in their last 10 road games! *8* OVER in Seattle |
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05-30-16 | Nationals v. Phillies +128 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +133 vs Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies got swept in their first series of the season by the Reds. All way since that ugly start in early April, Philadelphia managed to avoid another series sweep. That held all the way up until this latest series. The Phillies got swept by the Cubs and they'll look to respond now that they are back home where they have gone 9-4 in their last 13 games. Jeremy Hellickson held the Nationals to 0 earned runs on just 2 hits in 7 innings of work when he most recently faced them. In his last 3 starts he's gone 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP and the Phillies are 3-1 in his home starts this season. The Nationals Tanner Roark has allowed 19 hits in 18 and 2/3 innings in his last 3 starts. The Nats have lost 7 of his last 10 starts this season including 3 of his 4 road starts this year. In his most recent start at Philadelphia he got absolutely crushed for 8 earned runs on 12 hits in 3 and 1/3 innings. The Nationals are off of a big win at St Louis but they had previously lost 5 of their last 8 games and had been held to 4 runs or less in 7 of their last 9 games. The Phillies are 7-3 this season as a home dog in a price range of +100 to +150. The Phils are also 12-7 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Home dog value is off the charts here as Hellickson comes out strong again versus the Nationals while Roark finds Citizens Bank Park to be a nightmare again. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-30-16 | Twins v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland vs Minnesota @ 4:05 ET - The A's game stayed under the total but Oakland had previously gone over the total in 4 of their last 6 games and they did notch 4 runs on 9 hits in yesterday's game. Oakland is now averaging 5 runs per game and 9 hits per game in their last 7 games. The Athletics are 16-10 to the over in the month of May. The Twins have had just 6 unders in their 25 games in the month of May. Minnesota comes into Monday's game having gone over the total in 6 straight games. The Twins have averaged 5.5 runs per game during this stretch as they have finally got their bats going and the A's Kendall Graveman is unlikely to slow them down! Graveman has a 5.36 ERA on the season and a 1.85 WHIP in his last 3 starts! In other words, he's been allowing way too many baserunners and the way the Twins are swinging the bats right now (3 homers yesterday in Seattle) allowing too many baserunners will get Graveman into trouble in a hurry in this one. The Twins Ervin Santana comes into this game off of an ugly start versus Kansas City. He allowed 6 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 4 innings of work! Santana has a 1.62 WHIP in road games this season and the right-hander is facing a very confident A's team at Oakland this afternoon. With back to back wins and piling up 26 hits in their last two games, the A's should have no trouble with the offerings of Santana this afternoon. The over is 18-9 this season in Twins games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. When off of a win the over is 11-3 in Minnesota games this season. Also, the past three seasons combined the over is 23-10 when the Twins enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more and this includes a perfect 3-0 mark to the over this season. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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05-30-16 | White Sox v. Mets OVER 7 | 0-1 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7 runs in New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:10 ET - The Mets continue to give Matt Harvey the opportunity to pitch his way out of his struggles. However, it's not working. Harvey has gone 0-3 with a 10.79 ERA and a 2.34 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In his last 2 starts, the Mets southpaw has allowed 4 homers while issuing more walks than strikeouts. Also, his strikeout numbers are trending downward and he now faces a White Sox club that has hit the ball well so far on this road trip. Even though the ChiSox lost all 3 games at Kansas City, including some heartbreakers, the pitching (including the bullpen) was the real issue! The ChiSox pen has been a weakness and this has been particularly true on the road where their ERA is in the 5.00 range so far this season. Jose Quintana gets the start for the White Sox today and, although he has posted solid numbers this season, he's facing a former team and will put a little extra added pressure on himself Monday afternoon. Also, Quintana struggled in day games last season with an 0-5 mark in 10 road starts where he compiled an ugly 5.49 ERA under the sun on the season. The Mets game stayed under the total yesterday but they entered that game on a 7-3 run to the over. Also, the White Sox enter this game on a 5-1 run to the over and, on the season, the over is 15-9 in ChiSox road games. The over is 9-5 in Mets games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, in Mets home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less, the over is 12-6 this season. *8* OVER in New York Mets |
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05-29-16 | Twins v. Mariners OVER 8 | 5-4 | Win | 106 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 runs +105 in Seattle vs Minnesota @ 4:10 ET - The Twins offense is finally starting to produce and that is giving us some nice line value here with the over in a game where there is no doubt that Minnesota should keep the bats rolling hot. Minny has averaged 5.6 runs per game in their last 5 games and they've reached double digits in hits in all but one of those games. All 5 of these games went over the total and the over is 16-5 in Twins games in the month of May. Also, this season, when off of a win Minnesota has gone 10-3 to the over. Also, in the past three seasons combined, when the Twins enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more, the over has gone 22-10. Simpy put, Minny is hot and I doubt that Taijuan Walker will slow them down. He has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts and has compiled a 4.00 ERA during this subpar stretch. The good news for Mariners fans is that Seattle should certainly give Walker plenty of run support today. The Twins are starting Ricky Nolasco Sunday and he has given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. After an under was the result in his first start this season, NONE of his 8 starts since have resulted in unders. Nolasco's starts have produced 6 overs and 2 pushes in his last 8 outings. Nolasco has given up 38 hits in his last 24 and 1/3 innings and the Mariners have averaged 5.6 runs per game in their last 11 games. It is no fluke as the M's have averaged 10 hits per game during this stretch and they should have no troubles with the offerings of a struggling Nolasco. Behind him is a Twins bullpen that has been miserable in road games this season. A 1-8 record on the road for the Minny pen and yesterday was their first successful road save of the entire season in road games. The over is 6-2 this season in Mariners home games where they are favored in a price range of -150 to -200. *8* OVER in Seattle |
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05-29-16 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 106 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs +105 in Colorado vs San Francisco - These teams combined for 15 runs yesterday and it should be more of the same today. Johnny Cueto of the Giants comes into this game with great overall numbers on the season but he now goes from back to back starts against light-hitting Padres in pitcher-friendly parks to facing a dangerous Rockies lineup in the most hitter-friendly ball park in the league. Also, being an afternoon game and with extra dry air expected at Coors Field today, it will be a challenge for Cueto. He did face the Rockies earlier in May and did have success despite allowing 8 hits but that start was in San Francisco. He has had some success at Coors Field in past years but Colorado is hitting .294 at home so far this season while averaging 5.5 runs. The Rockies are averaging nearly 5 runs per game in day games this season while the Giants are averaging 5.6 runs per game under the sun this season. San Francisco should have no troubles with the offerings of Chris Rusin today. The Giants are hitting .272 against lefties this season and the southpaw got absolutely crushed by the Giants when he faced them at San Francisco in early May. Now he must take them on at Coors Field where he has a 4.97 ERA this season and had a 5.29 ERA last season. Rusin is 11-21 in his MLB career and has been hit at a .295 clip in the bigs. Couple that with the fact he's facing a Giants lineup that just put up 10 runs yesterday and he's facing them at Coors Field and you have the opportunity for him to take another pummeling like he did at AT & T Park earlier this month. The over is 13-6 in Giants day games this season and I look for another one here. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-29-16 | Tigers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Oakland vs Detroit @ 4:05 ET - The Tigers full season batting stats against left-handed pitchers are not that impressive but Detroit has hit southpaws better recently. Detroit got to the A's Manaea for 9 hits in 6 innings and they also got to the Rays Smyly for 7 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings. Both these outings occurred within the past 9 days and I look for the Tiger to enjoy some success against Rich Hill of the A's this afternoon. Yes he's been pitching extremely well this season but the Oakland left-hander is 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in home starts this season so it's not like he has been flawless this season. Additionally, the Tigers already faced Hill in late April so they will be getting a rather quick second look at him. The A's lineup will also be getting a rather quick second look at the Tigers Mike Pelfrey whom they pounded them and I look for even better success in the rematch. Pelfrey remains winless on the season and he's allowed 18 hits (including 4 homers) in the 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Pelfrey is 0-3 with a ridiculous 11.04 ERA in his 3 career starts against Oakland. The Athletics pounded out 17 hits in yesterday's 12-3 win over the Tigers and they should no problem with Pelfrey as the over improves to 17-9 in Oakland's games this month. As for Detroit, the over is a perfect 6-0 in their Sunday games this season. Also, the over is an insane 16-2 in Tigers day games this season. Also, when off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more, the over is 21-12 in Detroit games the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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05-28-16 | Astros v. Angels OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in LA Angels vs Houston @ 10:05 ET - Last season Dallas Keuchel was phenomenal at home but much more hittable on the road. This season he's getting roughed up both home and away and a start at Anaheim against the Angels is unlikely to help matters. Keuchel is 1-4 on the road with a 6.57 ERA this season. In his last 3 starts the southpaw is winless with an 8.84 ERA. Even though the Angels Jered Weaver is off of a strong start, he previously allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits in 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. Home runs allowed have been a big problem for Weaver with 11 homers in 9 games and the Astros do have a potent, dangerous, powerful lineup that has enjoyed some longball success against Weaver in his career outings against them. The over is 3-0 in Keuchel's last 3 starts and also 5-1 in his road starts this season. The Angels lineup has been heating up and should have no trouble with Keuchel's offerings. With their 7-2 win yesterday, the Angels have scored at least 7 runs in 7 of their last 13 games. The Astros haven't been scoring a lot of late but Weaver does not have overpowering stuff and will prove to be a good match-up for them tonight. The over is 6-3 in the Angels last 9 games and 15-9 in the month of May overall. The over is 10-1 in Astros road games where they are priced from -100 to -150 this season! When playing against a team with a losing record, the over is 6-2 in Astros games this season. *10* OVER 7.5 in LA Angels |
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05-28-16 | Cardinals +125 v. Nationals | Top | 9-4 | Win | 125 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line +125 @ Washington @ 7:15 ET - On the surface this looks like a great spot for the Nationals. The Nationals Gio Gonzalez has great numbers on the season while the Cardinals Adam Wainwright does not. Additionally the Nats have home field edge here. However, the key here is current form of the pitchers as well as the lineups here. With yesterday's 6 to 2 loss, the Nationals have now lost 5 of their past 7 home games! The Nats have been held to 2 runs or less in 8 of their last 13 games. That type of sputtering offense is unlikely to see improvement as they now take on a surging Wainwright. The Cardinals have won each of his last 6 starts and he has produced quality starts in 4 of his last 5 outings. The Cards did not hit the ball well yesterday but they got the big hits they needed against a tough Max Scherzer. They will enjoy much better success against a struggling Gonzalez. The Washington left-hander got crushed by the Mets in his most recent start and the southpaw has allowed 21 hits (including 4 homers) in the 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Nationals lineup hasn't faced Wainwright since April of 2014 (a dominating shutout win for him) while the Cardinals will be facing Gonzalez for the 4th time dating back to April of 2014. Familiarity can lead to success for a lineup and the Cardinals - averaging 5.6 runs per game in their last 9 games - should get to Gonzalez early and often in this one. Yesterday marked the 6th time in their last 7 home games that Washington was held to 2 runs or less. Conversely, the Cardinals have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 9 games and they win their 7th straight Wainwright start today. *10* ST LOUIS |
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05-28-16 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 7.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 runs in Atlanta vs Miami @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game between these clubs stayed under the total but the teams combined for 22 hits in the game. The Braves will build off what was just their third home win of the season as, piling up 14 hits in yesterday's victory certainly gives them some confidence heading into Saturday's afternoon match-up. There is no denying the Braves have been the worst team in the National League so far this season but yesterday marked the 9th time in their last 13 games that Atlanta has tallied at least 8 hits. They are certainly hitting the ball much better than they were early this season even though they have had some trouble scoring runs. The key here is they should have some success against Wei-Yin Chen of the Marlins. The Miami southpaw has struggled lately with 8 runs (7 earned) on 15 hits (including 3 homers) in his last two starts spanning less than 12 innings of work. Atlanta will be seeing him for a 2nd time this season. As for the Marlins, even though they have not faced Aaron Blair, they should have no trouble with Blair's offerings today. Atlanta had wanted to given him more time at Triple A as he is 0-3 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his 5 starts at the MLB level this season. Blair has particularly struggled in his last 3 outings and now faces a Miami team that is hitting .285 on the road this season which is far and away the tops in the majors! The Braves had wanted to start Casey Kelley here but he ended up having to pitch in emergency relief Wednesday so plans had to change and Blair will take his punishment this afternoon. *8* OVER 7.5 in Atlanta |
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05-28-16 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -115 in Toronto vs Boston @ 1:05 ET - The Red Sox Rick Porcello has faced the Blue Jays twice so far this season and he allowed 2 homers in each start. Though his overall numbers are good this season, Toronto has always been a nemesis for him. This is particularly true at the Rogers Centre where he has gone 2-5 with a 7.15 ERA in 7 career appearances. The Blue Jays have plenty of confidence at the plate after yesterday's 7-5 win brings their current run to 6-2 in their last 8 games. The over is now 4-0 in the Jays last 4 home games. The Red Sox have arguably the top offense in the league this season and yesterday's result makes the over 12-3-2 in Boston's last 17 games. They'll face Marcus Stroman who they got to for 5 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings earlier this season. Also, the Blue Jays right-hander got clobbered in his most recent home start and has compiled a 5.51 ERA in his 5 starts at the Rogers Centre this season. These lineups have plenty of familiarity with the starting pitchers they are facing today and the result should be runs early and often in this one as the Blue Jays lineup is heating up and the Red Sox lineup has been strong all season long. *8* OVER 8.5 in Toronto |
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05-27-16 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7 runs -115 in Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET Friday - The Yankees struggled again against a southpaw yesterday. It looked like the right spot for them to snap out of their funk against lefties but it continued. The good news Friday is that they face a right-hander instead of a lefty. The other good news is that it's a righty who has been struggling of late. Chris Archer gets the start for the Rays Friday and he has been struggling as evidenced by his 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, even though he has great career stats against the Yankees, Archer has lost his last two starts against the Yanks while allowing 7 runs (6 earned) in 12 and 1/3 innings of work. 7 walks and 2 homers were also a problem in those two outings which both occurred in September. Before their 3-1 loss yesterday, the Yankees had won 6 of their past 7 games while averaging 5 runs per game. Their offense will get right back on track against a struggling righty. As for the Rays offense, they got embarrassed in yesterday's 9-1 loss to Miami. Tampa Bay had averaged 6.5 runs per game in their 11 prior games. They should resume their hot hitting against Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees. The Yanks right-hander just faced the Rays about five weeks ago so that should help in the rematch. Additionally, Tanaka comes in struggling a bit as he's compiled a 5.21 ERA in his last three starts overall. The over is 2-1 in those starts and the over is 3-0 in Archer's last three starts. With yesterday's 9-1 loss, the over is now 11-3-1 in the Rays last 15 games. The Yankees respond to facing a righty tonight (6-2 and 5 runs per game in their last 8 vs right-handers) and this one soars over the low number. *10* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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05-27-16 | Red Sox +125 v. Blue Jays | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Boston Red Sox +125 @ Toronto @ 7:05 ET Friday - The Blue Jays got a 3-1 win in the Bronx Thursday to take two of three from the Yankees but the Jays now return to Toronto where they have lost 5 straight games by an incredible average margin of 6 runs per defeat! Friday may prove to be another ugly mismatch for the Blue Jays on their home turf as the Red Sox have one of the most potent lineups in baseball while Toronto has been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 10 games. The Red Sox entered Thursday's action on a 7-3 run and averaging 6.1 runs per game during this 10 game stretch. Boston will have Joe Kelly on the mound Friday and what a return he had from the disabled list on Saturday. Kelly allowed 0 earned run on just 1 hit while striking out 7 in 6 and 2/3 innings of work. Kelly appears to be back in top form and should get revenge for a tough start at Toronto early this season. As for the Blue Jays starter, Aaron Sanchez, he appears to regressing in recent outings. In his last two starts he has given up 8 earned runs on 15 hits in his last two starts. That included his most recent start against the light-hitting Twins and he takes a big step up in class in terms of now facing the powerful BoSox lineup. Look for Boston to get revenge for an early season loss against Sanchez. Even though Boston is on the road for this one they are 5-1 this season as a small road dog (+100 to +125) and the Blue Jays continue to struggle at the plate and I look for Toronto to lose their 6th straight home game Friday! *8* BOSTON |
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05-26-16 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs -115 in New York Yankees vs Toronto @ 4:05 ET - J.A. Happ made 10 daytime starts while with the Mariners last season and he went 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA. The prior season he was with the Jays and he had a 4.75 ERA in his daytime outings. Happ also had a 5.67 ERA in away games that year while with the Jays. With the M's last season he went 2-4 with a 5.98 ERA in games away from home. The point is that an afternoon match-up on a warm afternoon in the Bronx with the wind likely blowing out toward left field is not a good match-up for the left-hander. The Yankees just saw him last month and they should fare much better in the rematch given the conditions and the fact that they now get to face him on their home turf. The Yanks will need to score plenty to stay in this game today because their starter, C.C. Sabathia is likely to get rocked. I am fully aware that he had a good first start when he first came off of the DL but, like Happ, Sabathia is a guy who has struggled in day games in recent seasons. Sabathia has a 5.06 ERA in his 2 daytime starts this season, 7.36 ERA last season, 8.38 ERA in 2014, and a 4.71 ERA in 2013. The over is 5-1 this season in Yankees home games where they are priced from -100 to -125. Sabathia has given up 13 runs (12 earned) on 24 hits in his last 18 innings of work against the Blue Jays spanning his last 3 starts against them. Happ gave up 2 homers in just 5 innings in his last start in the Bronx and though he is off of a good start at Minnesota he was previously rocked by Tampa Bay in an ugly outing in his prior start which lasted only 2 innings. More of the same here. *10* OVER in NY Yankees |
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05-26-16 | Marlins v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 6.5 runs -120 in Tampa Bay vs Miami @ 1:10 ET - These teams are both swinging the bats quite well and yet we've seen back to back unders in this series the past two games. The teams fell just short of going over the total in each of the last two games even though they combined for 39 hits. A key problem, as you would expect, is wasted opportunities, and the teams have left 37 men on base in the past two games. The fact that each of the last two games failed to go over the total and the fact that today's pitching match-up makes it "look like" this should be a low-scoring game is combining to give us tremendous value with the over. Even though the Marlins Jose Fernandez is throwing very well right now, he has struggled against the Rays. Tampa Bay has proven to be a bit of a nemesis for him as he's gone 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in his two career starts at Tropicana Field. While the Rays also have a "red hot" pitcher on the mound this afternoon and he did have a successful outing against the Marlins last season, Drew Smyly could be in trouble here. Miami is hitting left-handed pitching at a .295 clip so far this season! They have dominated southpaws as only one team (Boston) out of all 30 MLB teams has a higher batting average against lefties. Though Smyly has a "decent" ERA at home this season he is 0-3 in his home starts and he comes into this outing off of three road starts where he's compiled a 5.51 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. Giving up too many homers has been a problem and even if Yelich and Stanton are not in the lineup today the Marlins still have plenty of hitters with pop for extra bases...especially against lefties as they've hit so well against southpaws. The over is 41-28 the last 3 seasons combined in Marlins games against southpaws. The over is 21-11 the last three seasons in road games where Miami is priced between -100 and -125. The over is 13-8 this season in Marlins games against teams with a losing record. *10* OVER in Tampa Bay |
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05-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 3-8 | Win | 105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 7.5 runs +105 in Pittsburgh vs Arizona @ 12:35 ET - On the surface this may look like a pitchers' duel but it should prove to be anything but that! Even though the Pirates Gerrit Cole is off of a start where he allowed just 1 earned run in 7 innings against the Rockies, the concerning aspect is that he gave up 10 hits while recording 0 strikeouts in that outing. In other words Cole certainly had some good fortune in that start and now he faces a Diamondbacks lineup that got to him for 4 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 7 innings of work the last time they faced him. Also, Arizona has averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 games and the over is 7-1 in those games. It will be a mild afternoon in Pittsburgh with the wind likely blowing out toward left field. The over is 5-1 in Pirates games against left-handed starters this season and they'll be facing southpaw Patrick Corbin. The Dbacks lefty gave up 3 homers against Pittsburgh in his most recent start against the Bucs and that was very recent, in late April. The Pirates are getting a quick "second look" at Corbin and certainly have plenty of confidence at the plate as they are one of the top hitting teams in the league and have averaged 5.7 runs per game in going 8-2 in their last 10 games. The over is 12-5 in Pirates day games this season and 13-5 when they are facing a team with a losing record. As a big road dog of +175 to +200, the over is 8-4 in Arizona games the past three seasons. Also, this season, the over is 7-3 in Diamondbacks day games. *8* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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05-25-16 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Boston vs Colorado @ 7:10 ET - The Rockies Chad Bettis could be a little "off" for this start. His last scheduled start was Sunday and he threw just one inning before the game got cancelled due to rain. Needless to say his routine could be a bit off after the rain-shortened start and now taking the ball on Wednesday for his first "full start" in over a week. Facing one of the toughest lineups in baseball in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB is also not going to do Bettis any favors here. The Red Sox are on an 11-4 run and have averaged 7.5 runs per game during this 15 game hot streak at the plate! Boston will have knuckle-baller Steven Wright on the mound this evening. He has produced solid stats so far this season but if you look at the teams he has faced all of his opponents are ranked in the bottom half of the league in batting average or runs scored or BOTH. The point is that a dangerous Rockies lineup could definitely do some serious damage against him Wednesday night. The Rockies are hitting .297 on the season and the over is 31-20 the last 3 seasons combined in Colorado games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 7-2 this season in Red Sox games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is also 16-9 in Boston games this season when they are off of a win. Look for the Red Sox hitters to stay hot at the plate while the Rockies join in for some offensive fireworks tonight in weather conditions that are very favorable for the hitters Wednesday at Fenway Park. *10* OVER in Boston |
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05-25-16 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in San Francisco vs San Diego @ 3:45 ET - The Giants offense got back on track in yesterday's 8-2 win and I expect another big game from them here. But it also won't surprise me to see the Padres match San Francisco run for run in this one. That's because the Giants will have Jake Peavy on the mound and he is 1-5 with an 8.21 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP this season. Peavy has given up at least 4 earned runs in 6 of his 9 starts this season. Even though the Padres have one of the weaker lineups in baseball, they should have no problems getting to Peavy in an afternoon game with the wind blowing out in San Francisco. As for the Giants hitters', they will be seeing the Padres James Shields for the 3rd time already this season. Even though Shields hasn't given up many runs in those two starts there certainly are some noteworthy stats that show he could be on the cusp of getting crushed by the San Francisco lineup this afternoon. Shields walked 4 in the first start and then allowed 9 hits in a start that lasted less than 7 innings in his 2nd start against the Giants. That outing came just last week and will help ensure that the San Francisco bats are "honed in" on Shields' offerings today. Look for the over to improve to 8-2 this season in Peavy's starts and also 4-2 in the Padres last 6 games. The over is 12-5 in Giants day games this season and 74-56 the last 3 seasons combined. *10* OVER in San Francisco |
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05-25-16 | Phillies +124 v. Tigers | 8-5 | Win | 124 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Philadelphia Phillies +125 @ Detroit @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies got swept by the Reds in their series that opened up the season way back in early April. Since then, Philadelphia has been one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball and the Phils have NOT been swept since that ugly series against Cincinnati. With that said, I am happy to back Philadelphia here as they look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Tigers in Detroit. The Phillies will be lead by Aaron Nola on the mound and they are 4-1 in his road starts this season. Away from home Nola has been brilliant with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. He has an extra advantage today in that the Tigers have never faced him. Nola should get some solid run support here as the Phils tee off against Detroit's Anibal Sanchez. The Tigers right-hander has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 7 starts! He has compiled a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 home starts with 13 earned runs given up in only 13 innings of work! The Tigers have lost each of the last 4 starts Sanchez has made and 6 of his last 7 outings overall. The Phillies have a tough road trip coming up against the Cubs in Chicago this weekend so they will definitely "leave it all on the field" in Detroit this afternoon. Look for a huge effort from the Phillies and Nola as, just as they done for the past 7 weeks straight, they avoid the sweep! *8* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-24-16 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Pittsburgh vs Arizona @ 7:05 ET - The Diamondbacks were off yesterday but they are on 5-1 run to the over through Sunday. In those 6 games Arizona has averaged 6.5 runs per game and they may surprise some today in terms of the damage they are capable of against Francisco Liriano of the Pirates. They got to him for two homers earlier this season in their game against the Pittsburgh southpaw and it marked the 2nd straight time that the Dbacks have gotten to him for at least 4 earned runs. Arizona is likely to again give Liriano some trouble Tuesday as he has allowed 10 earned runs on 16 hits (including 4 homers) in his last two starts which have spanned 11 and 2/3 innings. That's good news for the Diamondbacks because they'll need all the runs they can get today. That's because Arizona is starting Shelby Miller today and the right-hander has looked like he's throwing batting practice in recent outings. Miller has given up 17 hits in his last two starts and he's been fortunate that he's allowed only 3 earned runs in each outing as the 17 hits and 4 walks have been accumulated in just 11 and 1/3 innings of work. In other words Miller's current form shows him allowing about 2 baserunners per inning. That's not going to bode well for a match-up with a Pirates team that has won 6 of their last 8 games and has averaged 6.3 runs per game in those six victories. Pittsburgh has been red hot at the plate and, with yesterday's over versus Colorado, the Pirates are now 11-1 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is also 6-0 in Pittsburgh's Tuesday games this season. When playing against a team with a losing record, the over is 11-5 in Pirates games so far this year. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.2 runs per game this season in games where the opposition started a southpaw. The Pirates are hitting .288 in home games this season. This has all the makings of a high-scoring battle between these foes Tuesday. *10* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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05-24-16 | Rays v. Marlins OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Miami vs Tampa Bay @ 12:10 ET - These teams combined to pile up the hits and runs yesterday and I look for more of the same today because neither one of these starting pitchers is in good form right now. The Rays Jake Odorizzi has given up 7 earned runs in only 9 innings over his last two starts. The Tampa right-hander has given up 5 homers in these 9 innings of work! Odorizzi has a 5.63 ERA in his three career starts against the Marlins and this will be the first time he has had to face them on their home turf in Miami and he has a 5.57 ERA in road outings this season. The Marlins will have Tom Koehler on the mound for this one and he has 13 hits and walked 10 in his last two outings. These two starts spanned less than 13 innings of work so Koehler has constantly been pitching himself into trouble and that is bad news today as he faces a Rays team that has been an "over machine" of late. The Tampa Bay lineup has been red hot for weeks and this has helped lead the way to a 10-1-1 run to the over in their last 12 games. The over is 11-6 in Rays road games this season and they are a perfect 3-0 to the over in interleague action this season. The over is 8-5 in Marlins day games this season and 13-6 in their games against teams with a losing record so far this year. *8* OVER in Miami |
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05-23-16 | Indians -101 v. White Sox | 6-7 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Cleveland Indians Money Line -101 @ Chicago White Sox (Game ONE of DH) @ 5:10 ET - Cleveland is off of back to back losses at Boston but the Indians had previously won five straight games. The White Sox are off of a tight win versus Kansas City yesterday but the ChiSox had previously lost 8 of their past 10 games. The White Sox have averaged only 2 runs per game in their last 5 games. The Indians have averaged 7 runs per game in their last 7 games. In Game One of the double-header Monday I like backing the team that has been hotter overall as well as hotter at the plate. Additionally, this is a key early season match-up as the Indians are only 2.5 games behind the first-place White Sox in the AL Central so Cleveland is looking to take advantage of this series to make up some ground in the division. Mike Clevenger gets the start for the Indians and he has an advantage here in that that White Sox have never faced him. Clevenger had a respectable start at Cincinnati last week and he got the W. The ChiSox will have Mat Latos on the mound and the Indians have some experience against him. In Latos' last three starts against Cleveland he has compiled a 5.50 ERA while allowing 4 homers in 18 innings of work. Latos comes into this start struggling as the White Sox are 1-2 in his last 3 starts as he has compiled an 8.05 ERA and a 2.17 WHIP. When priced at home in a +100 to +125 range the ChiSox are 0-4 this season and 18-32 (36%) the last 3 seasons combined! The Indians are 11-6 in divisional games so far this season. *8* CLEVELAND (Game ONE of DH) |
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05-23-16 | Rays v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs in Miami vs Tampa Bay @ 7:10 ET - Both of these teams were involved in games that went over the total yesterday and I look for more of the same today. The Rays have only stayed under the total once in their last dozen games! The Marlins certainly have not been such an "over machine" of late but Miami should feast on the offerings of the Rays Matt Moore today. The Marlins .273 batting average versus southpaws this season ranks them 5th in the majors and Moore is struggling badly. The Rays left-hander is winless in his last 3 starts with an 8.36 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP. The only good news for Moore is that he should benefit from some solid run support on Monday. Tampa Bay has a slugging percentage of .473 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 4th in the majors! That said, southpaw Wei-Yin Chen could give up some big hits in this one. The lefty has given up 23 hits (including 2 homers) in his last 17 and 1/3 innings of work. Also, the Rays lineup is very familiar with him and Chen has allowed 21 hits (including FOUR homers) in his last 17 innings against Tampa Bay. The over is 3-1 in Rays games this season where they are a small road dog of up to +125. In their 12 games against left-handed starters this season, Tampa Bay has had just 4 unders. The over is 40-28 in Marlins games against southpaw starters the past three seasons combined. *10* OVER in Miami |
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05-23-16 | Rockies v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 105 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs in Pittsburgh vs Colorado @ 12:35 ET - Jordan Lyles has made 6 career starts against the Pirates and he's picked up the loss in 4 of those starts and his team has lost all 6 starts as he compiled a 6.75 ERA in those outings. Ryan Vogelsong has faced the Rockies plenty of times in his career and, in the last three starts against Colorado, the Pirates right-hander has been rocked to the tune of 16 runs (15 earned) on 23 hits (including 5 homers) in just 14 innings of work. Of course this equates to an ERA up near 10 and he's like to struggle as well on a mile afternoon in western Pennsylvania today. Neither one of these "spot starters" has had a starting assignment in the month of May. The over is 3-1 in the 4 starts Lyles has made this season. After yesterday's rainout the teams have had plenty of time to prepare for this game and the over in Pirates games when playing with a day off is 4-2 this season and an amazing 27-12 the past three seasons combined! Also, Pittsburgh was defeated Saturday by the Rockies and the over is 13-4 this season in Pirates games when they are off of a loss. Pittsburgh's day games are 11-5 to the over this season and the Pirate are hitting .288 at home this season while the Rockies are averaging 5 runs per game overall this season. I just don't see either starter being able to dominate today and that means we can take advantage of a low total here in an afternoon game that should feature plenty of offense. *8* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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05-22-16 | Orioles v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore @ 3:35 ET - Yesterday's game was a pitchers' duel that came within one pitch of being an Angels 1-0 win. However, with two on and two out in the top of the 9th, the Orioles got a three-run bomb and went on to win 3-1. There is every reason to believe that today's game will play out much differently than yesterday's low-scoring affair. The total on today's game is a 9 with good reason as it will be a mild afternoon with the wind blowing out in Anaheim. The pitching match-up is ideal for a slugfest and the over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Orioles road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, in games where the O's are a small road favorite of up to -125, the over is 4-0 this season! Orioles day games are 7-2 to the over this season. Before yesterday's under, the Angels had been on a 7-2 run to the over and I expect their hot hitting to resume today. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and he's given up 11 runs (10 earned) in his last two starts and those outings spanned only 9 and 1/3 innings! Those were both at home for Jimenez whom has also gone 0-2 on the road this season with a 5.73 ERA. Jered Weaver has also struggled in his last two starts for the Angels. The veteran right-hander has gone 0-2 with 12 runs allowed (11 earned) on 19 hits (including FIVE homers!) in only 11 innings of work. The Orioles have averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 4 road games and the Angels, overall, had averaged 6.2 runs per game in their last 9 games prior to yesterday's tough day at the plate. The Angels stranded 11 men on base yesterday. Look for them to make up for that today as both these starters get rocked on a perfect afternoon for baseball in Anaheim! *10* OVER in LA Angels |
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05-22-16 | Rays v. Tigers OVER 8 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8 in Detroit vs Tampa Bay @ 1:10 ET - Chris Archer of the Rays and Jordan Zimmerman of the Tigers are two "big name" pitchers so that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The over is an incredible 13-2 in day games in Detroit so far this season and the wind will be blowing out at a good clip on a very pleasant afternoon for baseball. The key to this play is that neither Archer nor Zimmerman are performing that well of late. Zimmerman had the unbelievable beginning to his season this year with a 5-0 record early on. He has since lost 2 of his last 3 as he finally come back down to earth. The Tigers right-hander gave up 8 runs (7 earned) on 11 hits in 7 innings of work against Minnesota in his most recent start. Zimmerman actually got the win in that game despite his rough day on the mound but he lost each of his two prior starts and he's given up 25 hits in the 22 innings spanning these three outings. As for Archer, the Rays are 2-3 in his 5 road starts this season and he's compiled a 6.15 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. The Tampa Bay right-hander has allowed 7 homers in his 5 road starts. The Rays are on an 8-1-1 run to the over in their last 10 games as their offense is heating up. The Tigers have had just 3 unders in their last 14 games and they are hitting around .300 in their past 7 games! As a small road dog of up to +125, the Rays are going over at a 75% clip so far this season. The over is a perfect 5-0 in Sunday games for the Tigers this season. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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05-21-16 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 9 or 9.5 runs in Boston vs Cleveland @ 4:05 ET Saturday - A very mild afternoon is expected in Boston Saturday and the wind is expected to be blowing out. That can help to turn Fenway Park into a "bandbox" that is very favorable for the hitters and that is exactly what I am expecting in Game Two of this series. Helping our cause here (for the over) is this pitching match-up. Joe Kelly gets the start after coming back from a trip to the DL. He went on the DL due to a shoulder impingement. Though he pitched well in the minors in his final rehab start, he certainly hasn't fared well at the big league level this season with a 9.34 ERA in his three early season starts. Also, since coming to Boston, he had a 6.29 ERA in his day game outings in 2014 and a 5.62 ERA in his day games starts last season. This season he's been hit at a .368 clip and I don't see a day game at Fenway Park being a good situation for him to make his first start back. However, at least he should have plenty of run support because the Red Sox offense has been among the best in baseball early this season. Boston should have no trouble with the offerings of Cleveland's Trevor Bauer. They faced him in August here at Fenway Park and got to him for 5 earned runs early and knocked him out of the game in the 2nd inning! Even though Bauer has pitched better early this season, this is still a guy with a career 4.44 ERA and now facing his toughest start so far this year. 3 of his first 4 starts this season (filling in for Carlos Carrasco) have come against three opponents with team batting averages of .235 or less (Philadelphia, Houston, and Minnesota). Now he faces a Boston team hitting nearly .300 on the season. Entering Friday's action the over was 21-11 in Indians games on grass fields this season. The over was also 5-1 in Red Sox home games with a posted total of 9 to 9.5 runs. This total is big for a reason. This should be a slugfest Saturday. *10* OVER in Boston |
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05-21-16 | Blue Jays v. Twins OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs in Minnesota vs Toronto @ 2:10 ET Saturday - The Blue Jays J.A. Happ got roughed up in his most recent start so certainly he'll be looking to bounce back. The trouble is he's facing a Minnesota team that has hammered him to the tune of 11 runs (9 earned) on 15 hits (including 4 homers) in his last 2 starts against them. Both of those outings came in the past two seasons and Happ totaled only 7 innings in the two starts combined. The Twins, entering Friday's action, had averaged 4.6 runs per game in their last 7 games so they are starting to have a little more confidence at the plate after a dismal start this season. They'll need all the runs they can get Saturday because Pat Dean will be making his first ever MLB start. As a reliever this season he's been rocked in his 8 innings of work. The southpaw hadn't exactly been setting the world on fire in the minors either and he faces a Blue Jays team that led the majors last season in slugging percentage (.463) against left-handed pitching. In road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the Blue Jays have gone 26-18 to the over the past three seasons. As a home dog of +125 to +150, the Twins have gone 24-11 to the over the past three seasons. Also, before Thursday's series opener stayed under the total, the Blue Jays had recorded 5 straight overs and the Twins had been 10-3 to the over in May. Look for the hot hitting to resume Saturday based on this pitching match-up. *8* OVER in Minnesota |
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05-20-16 | Rangers +135 v. Astros | 2-1 | Win | 135 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Texas Rangers Money Line +135 @ Houston @ 8:10 ET - The Rangers were off on Thursday and they enter Friday's action ready to regroup after a 3-game sweep at Oakland followed an emotional series with the Blue Jays team that knocked them out of the playoffs last fall. Look for the Rangers to get back on track against an Astros team that was doing battle with the White Sox in Chicago last night. The scheduling situation certainly favors the Rangers. By the way, Texas is already 3-1 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Additionally, the Rangers Colby Lewis is 9-1 with a 2.71 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in his career starts against the Astros. Houston's Lance McCullers is 0-2 with a 12.80 ERA and 2.53 WHIP in his career starts against the Rangers. McCullers is coming off of an ugly start at Boston in his first outing this season. As for Lewis, he has been a model of consistency this season as he went 6 innings in each of his first 4 starts and then 7 innings in each of his next 4 starts. On the year, he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 7 of the 8 starts. Look for Lewis to again add another W to his amazing career record against the Astros. Houston is 4-9 against division opponents this season. The Rangers as a sizable underdog here are certainly offering tremendous line value as they already are 3-0 against the Astros this season and have a huge scheduling edge and pitching edge in this series opener Friday. *8* TEXAS |
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05-20-16 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Boston vs Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - The Indians are off of a 7-2 in at Cincinnati last night that went over the total. In their last 15 games, Cleveland has stayed under the total only 3 times. The Indians now visit a hitter-friendly park and face one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball as Cleveland faces the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Boston is on an 8-1-1 run to the over and the weather is also expected to be favorable for an over on Friday night. Even though Corey Kluber is a "big name pitcher" for Cleveland, the right-hander has given up 9 earned runs in his last two starts spanning only 9 and 1/3 innings of work. Also, he faced Boston in early April and got clobbered. By the way, the Red Sox Clay Buchholz faced the Indians in early April and he also got hammered. Buchholz comes into this start in poor current form as well as he has allowed 9 earned run in his last 2 starts spanning only 11 innings of work. The Red Sox right-hander has given up 3 homers in his last two starts as well and both of those outings were at home. This total looks to be moving toward a 9 and the over is already 7-2 this season in Boston's games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Red Sox are coming off of a win Wednesday and the over is 15-8 in Boston's games this season when they are off of a win. As for the Indians, the over is 21-11 in their games on grass this season and 17-9 in Cleveland's games against right-handed starters. The Red Sox lineup has been producing runs like crazy while the Indians lineup is hotter than it's been all season. All signs are therefore pointing to a slugfest at Wrigley Field Friday night. *10* OVER in Boston |
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05-19-16 | Indians v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Cincinnati vs Cleveland @ 7:10 ET - Josh Tomlin of the Indians is 5-0 on the season. However, he has allowed 6 homers in his last 4 starts and, in his last three starts he has compiled a 4.42 ERA. The last time he faced the Reds Tomlin gave up 6 runs in less than 5 innings of work. The last time he pitched at Cincinnati Tomlin gave up 6 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. Cincy has scored 6 runs or more (plus had 10 hits or more) in 3 of their last 4 games. The Reds stay hot at the plate tonight and they'll need it because the Indians have beaten Cincinnati three straight times and averaged 12 runs per game in those three victories. The Tribe should have no problems with the offerings of Tim Adleman. He is making just his 4th start of the season and he has struggled more with each start he's made. 7 baserunners in 5 innings two starts ago and then 10 baserunners in 5 innings in his last start. That outing came against a Phillies team that certainly has not been an offensive juggernaut this season. That said, the way the Indians are hitting the ball, they should do damage early and often against Adleman. Another key factor here is that the Cincy bullpen is easily one of the worst in baseball so Cleveland should be piling up runs throughout Thursday's contest. The over is 16-9 in Indians games against right-handed starters this season and 20-11 in their games on grass. The over is 18-10 in Reds games against right-handed starters this season. 9 of the last 13 meetings between these teams have gone over the total and that strong trend continues Thursday. *10* OVER in Cincinnati |
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05-19-16 | Mariners v. Orioles OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9 runs +115 in Baltimore vs Seattle @ 12:35 ET - Yesterday's game stayed under the total despite 9 extra base hits in the game including 3 homers. The key was that the 3 homers were all solo bombs. I don't expect that to be the case today based on the starting pitching match-up in this one. The Mariners will have Nate Karns on the mound. The right-hander has given up 4 homers in his 4 road starts this season. Baltimore is second in the majors for home runs this season with 57 in their 38 games so far this year. Karns got crushed in his only daytime start this season. The Mariners lineup should give him plenty of run support though as they "tee off" against Tyler Wilson today. The Orioles right-hander has some decent numbers this season but he's still making just the 10th MLB start of his young career. Last season he got hit at a .289 clip and he does not pile up the strikeouts. In other words, he's a "pitches to contact" type of pitcher and he's facing a Mariners lineup that, before being held to just 2 runs yesterday, had averaged 5.7 runs per game in their last 7 games. The M's were shutout once in that 7 game stretch but in the other 6 games Seattle averaged nearly 7 runs and 10 hits per game. The lineup is stepping to the plate with confidence and I am certainly not sold yet on Wilson as being a "shut down" hurler. The Mariners have had 6 road games this season with posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and not a single one stayed under the total. The Orioles are 9-2-1 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the over is 6-2-1 in O's day games this season. *8* OVER in Baltimore |
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05-18-16 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8 runs -102 in Oakland vs Texas @ 3:35 ET - This is truly a contrarian play as many are likely to be looking for a pitchers duel here based on the low ERAs of these two hurlers. This is helping to give line value here as the juice has already moved from the over side to the under side in this one as of early gameday morning. A crazy 9th inning is what allowed yesterday's game to soar over the total as both bullpens suffered collapses. That is good news if we need some late runs in this one as both pens are "rattled". However, I don't expect to need that as I look for both of these starting pitchers to have some issues. Texas is looking to avoid a sweep and the over is 10-7 this season in Rangers games when they are off of a loss. They are facing Rich Hill who has enjoyed some surprising early season success but whom is 0-3 with a 4.85 ERA in his home starts this season. The journeyman southpaw is having some issues with command of his pitches and has walked 3 or more batters in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Rangers have a potent enough offense to make him pay as they are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 11 games and it will be a mild afternoon in Oakland with the wind blowing out to right. As far as the A's offense, this will be the 4th straight southpaw starter they are facing. The over is 5-2 in Athletics games against left-handed starters this season. It tends to help a lineup when they see a lefty in consecutive outings and in this case it's been lefty-lefty-lefty-lefty for the A's to tee off against. Like Hill, Martin Perez of the Rangers is having some issues with command of his pitches and the left-hander also has given up 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts against Oakland and those spanned a total of less than 9 innings! Perez has more walks than strikeouts in his road starts this season and the A's confidence at the plate is soaring right now as they have scored at least 5 runs and reached double digits in hits in 5 of their last 8 games. The over is 8-2 in the Rangers last 10 games and 10-3 in the A's last 13 games. More of the same Wednesday afternoon. *10* OVER in Oakland |
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05-18-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game stayed just under the total as it was posted at a 9.5 but ended up a 7-2 Tigers win. The total for this early afternoon game Wednesday opened up at a 9 but has dropped to an 8.5 and there is excellent line value here with the over. The "fade" is on for the Twins Ricky Nolasco. The veteran right-hander has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 6 starts. Nolasco has a 7.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has been reached for 13 runs (11 earned) in his last 14 innings of work against the Tigers. That includes 1 start two weeks ago and 2 starts last season. So the powerful Detroit lineup is getting a 2nd look at him in a short period of time and the Tigers are starting to get it going at the plate with 23 runs in their current 3-game winning streak. Detroit will need all the runs they can get today because I am calling for Justin Verlander to get roughed up some as well. The veteran Tigers right-hander is off of back to back strong outings but he is winless in his two day game starts this season with a 5.56 ERA. Last season Verlander went 2-5 with a 5.10 ERA in his day game starts. The Twins are quite familiar with Verlander since he's been with division rival Detroit for his entire career and a number of Minnesota hitters have enjoyed some good success against him. The over is 13-2 in Detroit day games this season! The over is 3-1 in Verlander's home starts this season and the over is 5-1 in Nolasco's starts this season. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the Twins have gone 7-2 to the over this season. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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05-17-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +105 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - These teams exploded for 18 runs yesterday and the Twins offense is certainly coming to life as they have now averaged 6.25 runs per game in their last 4 games. The Tigers lineup has pounded out 13 or more hits in 3 of their last 5 games and the over is 8-2 in Detroit's last 10 games and 13-3-1 in the Twins last 17 games. With this pitching match-up today featuring a pair of fading veteran hurlers I look for both teams to continue pounding the ball tonight. Both of these starting pitchers have already seen the better years of their career. Mike Pelfrey of the Tigers faced the Twins two weeks ago and got pounded for 5 earned runs in 4 innings of work. Phil Hughes of Minnesota faced the Tigers a little over two weeks ago and he gave up 4 earned runs in just 5 innings on the mound. Overall, Hughes has a 12.27 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Detroit's Pelfrey is off of a surprisingly "decent" start at Baltimore in his last outing but he previously allowed 5 earned runs in each of his 3 prior starts. He's winless on the season and has a 9.39 ERA in his home starts on the year. The Twins are 14-6 to the over in night games this season and 6-1 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The Tigers are 11-4 to the over this season in their home games and also 22-9 to the over this season in their games against a right-handed starter. *10* OVER in Detroit |
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05-17-16 | Marlins v. Phillies +103 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 103 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 vs Miami @ 7:05 ET - Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, and the Mets are all in an early season battle near the top of the NL East. The Phillies weren't supposed to be there but, thanks to solid pitching, Philadelphia absolutely is "hanging around" and certainly doesn't appear poised to drop off anytime soon. The Phillies are off of back to back losses but previously had won 6 of their last 7 games. The Marlins, with the win in yesterday's series opener, have won 3 straight but Miami had previously dropped 5 of their last 7 games. The Phillies have the edge in starting pitching in this match-up in addition to having the homefield edge. Additionally, the Phils bullpen has a 3.26 ERA at home and the Miami bullpen has a 3.82 ERA on the road. Wei-yin Chen and Vincent Velasquez just squared off in Miami a week and a half ago and the Marlins won that game 6 to 4. However, Velasquez certainly was the better pitcher. While each hurler allowed 4 earned runs, Chen gave up 11 hits in just 5 innings of work and he did not record a single strikeout. Velasquez gave up only 7 hits in 6 innings of work and he recorded 5 strikeouts. This game is projected to be a low-scoring pitchers duel and the Marlins are 25-43 the last 3 seasons in road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Philadelphia is 4-1 in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season. The Phillies are also 9-4 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Phils are trying to avoid a 3rd straight loss and, since opening the season 0-4 the Phillies have only had one losing streak last more than two games. Philadelphia was on a 22-11 (67%) run before losing back to back games. One of the least respected teams in the league continues to be a pleasant surprise and I'll gladly grab them (with the better starting pitcher too!) as a home dog in this spot as they bounce right back as they've been doing all season long. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-16-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs +105 in Detroit vs Minnesota @ 7:10 ET - The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman certainly has impressed early this season. However, after a 5-0 start he's now lost 2 straight and Monday he'll be facing a Twins team that is off of back to back wins and scored 17 runs in their 3-game set at Cleveland over the weekend. The point is that Minnesota could absolutely give Zimmerman some trouble here. As well as the Detroit right-hander has pitched early this season his strikeout numbers were down in his past two starts and he did allow 14 hits in his 15 innings of work. Solid outings nonetheless but it's not like the guy has been unhittable and the Twins are swinging the sticks better in recent games. Minnesota has had just 2 unders in their 13 games in the month of May! The Twins are also 7-2 to the over when off of a win this season and they also are 5-1 to the over when facing a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 10-4 to the over in May and also 10-4 to the over in their home games this season. Detroit also is 21-9 to the over in their games against right-handed starters this season. Jose Berrios gets the start for Minny tonight and he has a 1.75 WHIP in his 3 starts this year and his ugly 6.28 ERA could easily be even worse. The hungry Tigers (slumping for weeks) got a much needed win yesterday and produced 6 runs on 13 hits. Detroit is happy to be back home and I look for them to rally after yesterday's win. They should score plenty tonight but the Twins are starting to put things together at the plate and this should be a close, but high-scoring, game all the way. The Minnesota bullpen has a 5.89 ERA on the road this season and the Tigers pen has a 5.10 ERA at home this season. Big runs at Comerica Park tonight. *10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit |
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05-16-16 | Reds v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in Cleveland vs Cincinnati @ 6:10 ET - Though it certainly is NOT a "perfect play it every time no matter what" type of angle, I do love looking for "overs" in a situation where the home team's pitcher is likely to get rocked. That's because generally teams hit better at home than on the road so you know the home team should certainly "get theirs". That said, if you know things are looking up for the road team to also "get theirs" you've got a great shot at the over! The Reds should absolutely pound the Indians Cody Anderson in this match-up. The Cleveland right-hander is winless in his five starts this season and he has compiled a 9.45 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his 3 home starts. Anderson has given up 7 homers in his 5 starts this season and he will face some tough left-handed lumber in the Reds lineup tonight and the wind is expected to be blowing out to right field. Cincinnati has some confidence coming into this interleague match-up as the Reds got a big 9-4 win at Philly yesterday. Cincy is only 5-5 in their last 10 games but the offense has produced an average of 5.3 runs per game during this stretch. Offense is certainly not the strong suit of the Indians but they face the Reds John Lamb tonight and he's averaged only 5 innings in his two starts this season. That means a Cincy bullpen that has a 6.49 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road is likely to be exposed tonight. Also, Lamb is still a guy who, at the MLB level, has a 1-5 record with a 5.13 ERA and he's been hit at a .283 clip by big league hitters. The Indians should score their fair share tonight off of Lamb and the beleaguered Reds pen. The over is 11-6 in Cleveland's home games and that includes a solid 4-1 to the over in Indians home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The over is 8-4 in Reds games this season when they are off of a win. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-15-16 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 runs +105 in Colorado vs New York Mets @ 4:10 ET - This match-up actually stayed under the closing total yesterday as the line moved to 11.5 rather early in the day and, amazingly, the game got to 7-4 by the top of the 6th and then went scoreless the rest of the way. The teams did combine for 25 hits and I look for more hot hitting today. Even though the Mets Jacob deGrom has good career numbers against the Rockies a lot of that has to do with the fact that he has never faced them at hitter friendly Coors Field. This will be deGrom's first ever start at Colorado and the Rockies have pounded out at least a dozen hits in 4 of the first 5 games of this 6 game homestand. The Mets deGrom has only allowed a total of 5 earned runs in his last two starts but he did give up 16 hits in the 12 innings of work. Baserunners at Coors Field lead to problems in a hurry and that is especially true in an afternoon game. Yes the wind will be blowing in and it will be a little cool this afternoon but that thin and air (especially in an afternoon game) is so favorable for the hitters at Coors Field. That is a big reason why you also see the huge home/away disparity with Tyler Chatwood's numbers for the Rockies. The right-hander gets the start for Colorado this afternoon and, while he has pitched very well on the road, he has been rocked at home this season. Chatwood has gone 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA in his three home starts this season. I expect both Chatwood and deGrom (welcome to Coors Field!) to struggle this afternoon and, even though it may not be needed, there certainly should be more late inning runs than what we saw yesterday. The Rockies bullpen has a 5.71 ERA in home games this season. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-15-16 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 runs -105 in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:05 ET - The wind will be blowing out to right at a strong clip throughout this game and temperatures will be rather pleasant...right around 60 degrees. It should be a great afternoon for baseball in the Bronx and an especially great afternoon for crushing the baseball! That could be key to the potential for a "home run derby" type of game here. Even though Masahiro Tanaka has some good overall numbers this season, he is off of a start where he allowed 6 earned runs in 7 innings and that start was here at home and the right-hander was tagged for 3 homers in the outing! The White Sox send Miguel Gonzalez to the mound for this one and, though he's off of a decent start one should not overlook his other start this season. That outing was in late April and Gonzalez gave up 5 earned runs on 11 hits in only 5 innings of work. In his last start in the Bronx, which came last April, the White Sox right-hander gave up 5 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. He gave up a homer in that start and has allowed a home run in each of his two starts this season as well. Yesterday's 2-1 pitchers duel means a breakout game can be expected this afternoon as each of these clubs had been rolling heading into yesterday. The over was 7-1 in the White Sox last 8 games and they averaged nearly 7 runs per game during this hot streak. The over was 6-1 in the Yankees prior 7 games and they averaged 5 runs per game during the hot streak. *8* OVER in NY Yankees |
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05-14-16 | Tigers +122 v. Orioles | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Detroit Tigers Money Line +122 @ Baltimore @ 7:05 ET - Even though the overall numbers of Anibal Sanchez are not that impressive so far this season, he is starting to turn the corner. He has only given up 13 hits while striking out 18 in his last 3 starts spanning nearly 19 innings of work. Compare that with Mike Wright who is getting the start for the Orioles today. Wright has given up 23 hits in his last 3 starts spanning about 17 innings on the mound. You can see who has been much tougher to hit recently and Wright's recent start was also his worst as he allowed 10 hits in only 5 innings against the A's last Saturday. The Tigers are off of 1-0 shutout loss to the Orioles yesterday and certainly Baltimore has been the hot team while Detroit has been the cold team in recent action. However, I can definitely see that flipping today as the Tigers Sanchez is fully capable of a strong start here while I just don't see the "hittable" Wright being able to stay out of trouble against this potent Tigers lineup Saturday. Detroit is 3-1 in Sanchez's 4 career starts against the Orioles. Baltimore only had 4 hits in yesterday's game and that was the 7th time in their last 11 games that the O's were held to 8 hits or less. Baltimore's Wright has career numbers of 4-8 with a 5.96 ERA and a .298 BAA. Last season he went 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA in night games and he has notched only one victory in night games in his career. We've got the better pitcher on the mound this evening with an entire team behind him that is ready to bounce back off of a 1-0 shutout loss. Underdog value. *10* DETROIT |
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05-14-16 | Twins v. Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 7.5 runs +105 in Cleveland vs Minnesota @ 4:10 ET - This can be categorized as a bit of a contrarian play. I say that because I am well aware of the fact that it will be a bit of a "raw" afternoon in Cleveland and the wind will be blowing in and the temperatures will only get cooler as the game goes along. However, one of the keys in a situation like this is it tends to give line value to the over. The conditions don't seem ideal but the current trending of both of these clubs as well as current struggles for both of these hurlers has me backing the over in a big way Saturday. Yesterday's 7-6 Cleveland win means that Minnesota has gone over the total to the tune of 8-1-1 in their 10 games this month. As for the Indians, they have had only 2 unders in their last 8 games. The Twins Ervin Santana just returned from the disabled list and the results were concerning. Santana gave up 7 hits and 3 walks in only 3 and 1/3 innings. Things are unlikely to improve for the struggling right-hander today as he gave up 8 earned runs on 10 hits in only 2 and 2/3 innings in his last start at Cleveland! The key "X factor" to this play is that Corey Kluber is a big name pitcher for the Indians but I fully expect him to struggle here. He has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings of work against Minny and he is coming off of a rough outing in his most recent start. Kluber gave up 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work at Houston on Monday. The over is 10-5 in Cleveland home games this season. Also, the over is 10-4 in Indians divisional games this season. *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-14-16 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 9.5 runs -110 in Boston vs Houston @ 1:05 ET - Mild afternoon in Boston and the wind will be blowing out at Fenway Park. Not only that but the wind is expected to also get a little stronger as the game goes on. Needless to say it will not be a good day to be a pitcher at Fenway! Both these starting pitchers have concerns about the long ball too. The Astros Colin McHugh has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts and he gave up 5 earned runs on 10 hits in only 4 innings of work in a home start against the Red Sox earlier this season. Boston's Clay Buchholz has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 4 of his 6 starts this season and that includes a start at Houston last month when he gave up 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work. He's allowed 6 homers in his 7 starts this season. Boston's 7-6 loss yesterday ended their 5 game winning streak but it was the 6th straight over for the Red Sox as they have averaged an incredible 10.3 runs per game during this 6-game stretch. The Astros have now scored at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 11 games. Houston is now 12-5 to the over in road games this season. Also, the over is now 16-8 in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past three seasons. In other words, the high total on today's game is likely justified! As for the Red Sox, the over is 7-2 this season in their games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *8* OVER in Boston |
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05-13-16 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10 runs -105 in Colorado vs New York Mets @ 8:40 ET - Temps will get up into the mid-70s today before cooling off this evening in Denver. Though a cool front is coming in and the wind will likely be blowing in from right field, the air will still be extremely dry and balls hit well to center and left field should carry well given the expected win direction. The key here is we are getting some line value because these pitchers have some good numbers and likely because of the forecast wind condition. Keep in mind, totals at Coors Field are usually in the 11 range and oftentimes even up into the 12 range. With this one opening up at a 10.5 and then moving down to a 10, I am not going to hesitate to get involved. Sure, Matt Harvey has good career numbers against the Rockies but he's never faced them at hitter-friendly Coors Field! As for Jon Gray, the last time he faced the Mets was in Colorado in August and he gave up 7 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work. Gray has an 11.42 ERA in his two home starts this season. Harvey is coming off of a great outing but that was against a Padres team that has one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Harvey's first 5 starts this season, saw him allow 42 hits in 34 innings and truly he has faced a lot of struggles offenses this season. 5 of the 6 games saw him face teams that are hitting .236 or less this season. The other one was against a Royals team that ranks 26th out of 30 teams for runs scored this season! Now Harvey will face a Rockies team that is hitting .292 in home games which is tops in the NL and 2nd in MLB overall. The over is 10-5 this season in Colorado home games and 3-1 when the Rockies are coming off of an off day. The Mets weren't off yesterday but they may as well have been. They got shut out by Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. The over is 3-0 this season in Mets games when they are off of a shutout loss. Also, the past three seasons combined, the over is 24-14 in Mets games when they are a small road favorite (up to -125). Â *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-13-16 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* OVER 8.5 or 9 runs in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:20 ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out at Wrigley Field for this afternoon match-up. There is a cold front on the way and it's bringing some rain but this game should already be in the books before the weather switches around this evening in Chicago. As for this afternoon, the weather will be ideal for baseball and ideal for the hitters with the wind blowing out at a decent clip. We get a nice "break" on the total here because these starting pitchers each have some nice numbers on the season. The key here is that when weather conditions are like they are expected to be this afternoon in Chicago, Wrigley Field can make a hurler feel like he is pitching in a bandbox! The Pirates just saw Jason Hammel earlier this month so the quick second look helps plus he's been pitching to contact a lot this season. His strikeout numbers are down. That's bad news on an afternoon like what is expected at Wrigley today. Pittsburgh will have Francisco Liriano on the mound and the southpaw has allowed 5 homers in his 4 road starts this season. The Cubs have hit 37 homers in their 33 games this season and the Cubbies and Bucs slugging percentages rank among the top teams in the NL this season. The Cubs are off of a 1-0 pitchers duel defeat Wednesday but 8 of their prior 10 games went over the total. The Pirates have had just 2 unders in their last 9 games. The over is 26-12 when Pittsburgh is coming off of an off day the past three seasons. Also, the over is 9-3 in Pirates days games this season and 11-3 in Pittsburgh's games against teams with a winning record. The Cubs divisional games are 11-3 to the over this season and the Cubbies are 5-1 to the over when they are playing after a day off this season. Just like the Pirates, the over is 9-3 in Cubs day games this season. *8* OVER in Chicago Cubs |
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05-12-16 | Phillies -131 v. Braves | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -127 @ Atlanta @ 7:10 ET - The Braves got the win yesterday but home wins have been few and far between for Atlanta so far this season. In fact, that was just the 2nd win in 18 home games for the Braves this season. Thursday's game, as you can see by the line, is forecast to be a tight, low-scoring game. That is certainly noteworthy because Atlanta is 0-7 this season in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Also, the Phillies are 9-4 this season in all games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Vincent Velasquez gets the start for the Phils and he's 4-1 this season with a solid 2.17 ERA and stellar 0.96 WHIP. He has 44 strikeouts on the season and just 11 walks for a solid 4:1 K:BB ratio. This is in stark contrast to starter Aaron Blair of the Braves as he has made 3 starts this season and only has 5 strikeouts but he has 9 walks for an ugly 1:1.8 K:BB ratio! Blair has a 1.65 WHIP in his two home starts this season and the Phillies had scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 6 games before getting shutdown in yesterday's game. Conversely, the Braves had been struggling at the plate before yesterday's surprising 5-1 win. Atlanta had lost 6 of their past 7 games and did not score more than 3 runs in any of those 7 games. The Braves averaged just 1.9 runs per game during this stretch. The Phillies have the better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, and have been producing more offense. The numbers certainly aren't "off the charts" for the Phillies but they certainly are playing better ball than the Braves this season and this is a value spot to go against one of the worst teams in the league and only have to lay a very short price. *8* PHILADELPHIAÂ |
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05-12-16 | Tigers v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs +105 in Baltimore vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles are hot. Not only have they won four straight games but they have scored an average of 7.5 runs per game during this streak while also averaging 12.5 hits per game. Now, on Thursday, the O's get the luxury of teeing off against the Tigers Mike Pelfrey. The veteran right-hander has been a model of consistency for Detroit but not in a good way! Pelfrey has given up 5 earned runs in each of his last three starts! Also, the Tigers righty has walked 14 while striking out just 12 in his last five starts. In his last 3 starts against Baltimore, Pelfrey allowed only 3 earned runs in each outing but he certainly was fortunate. He gave up 27 hits in those 3 starts even though they spanned less than 17 innings of work! The only good news for Tigers fans tonight is that at least their lineup should make some noise as well. Detroit is off of a disastrous game at Washington yesterday that felt much worse than the 3-2 final score. The Tigers struck out 20 times in the game and are anxious to redeem themselves against Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. The Orioles right-hander is only 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, against the Tigers, Jimenez gave up at least 6 earned runs against them in each of his two outings last season even though he didn't make it out of the 5th inning of either start. The over is 12-4 in Detroit's games against teams with a winning record this season. The over is 5-2 this season in Orioles games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. *10* OVER in Baltimore |
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05-11-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB *10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs -105 in Colorado vs Arizona @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game easily stayed under the total but it was a 'quirky' result to say the last. The Diamondbacks pounded out 14 hits Tuesday but they left 10 men on base. The Rockies went an insane 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position yesterday. That is not a result you are likely to see again at Coors Field anytime soon. After being held to just 1 run in yesterday's game, look for the Rockies to get right back on track here. Colorado should have no trouble with the offerings of Robbie Ray as they just saw him in Arizona less than 2 weeks ago and they pounded him for 5 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. The Rockies got 4 homers off of Ray in that game! The Diamondbacks southpaw has an 8.03 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The only good news for Ray today is that he should have plenty of run support behind him. The Diamondbacks have averaged 6 runs and 11 hits per game during their current 5 game winning streak. Though Chad Bettis held them to 3 earned runs when he faced them in Arizona, the Rockies right-hander did given up 9 hits in his 6 innings on the mound. Overall, Bettis has been getting hit hard recently with 8 earned runs on 17 hits in his last 12 innings of work. The Rockies hitting production at home ranks among the best in the league but their bullpen work at home ranks them among the worst in the league in that category. With that said, this one is likely to turn into a slugfest Wednesday afternoon. Even with yesterday's surprising under, the over is still 9-5 in Rockies home games this season. Also, Colorado is 6-3 to the over in their 9 games against left-handed starters this season. The over is also 17-7 the last 3 seasons in Arizona games when they enter on a winning streak of 3 games or more. In their 8 Diamondbacks day games so far this season, only 2 have resulted in unders. *10* OVER in Colorado |
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05-11-16 | Orioles -103 v. Twins | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB *8* Baltimore Orioles Money Line -103 @ Minnesota @ 1:10 ET - The Twins slump continued yesterday as they lost 5-3 to the Orioles and were outhit by a 14 to 6 margin! This is nothing new as the Twins have lost 10 of their last 11 games and, going further back, 15 of their last 19. The opportunity at a great price to fade a Minnesota team that has won only a fourth of their games (8-24 record) this season is a situation I won't pass up. Tyler Wilson of the Orioles has pitched quite well since moving into the rotation. The righthander ran into a little trouble in the 7th inning against the Yankees in his most recent start but he's backed by a solid bullpen plus teams are only hitting him at a .222 clip. Wilson should enjoy success against a Twins team that has been held to 7 hits or less in 5 of their last 6 games. By contrast, the Orioles should "tee off" against Phil Hughes today. The veteran righthander is struggling badly for the Twins. Hughes is 1-5 with a 5.82 ERA so far this season and, in his last 3 starts he's compiled a 7.71 ERA. He's been roughed up particularly in his last two starts with 10 earned runs in just 7 innings of work. His strikeout numbers are down and he's facing an Orioles team that is averaging 6.25 runs per game in their last 4 games. Minnesota is 3-10 in day games this season. The Orioles are 14-8 in their games against right-handed starters. *8* BALTIMORE |
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