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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-17-15 | West Virginia v. Baylor -21 | Top | 38-62 | Win | 100 | 67 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week The Mountaineers have surrendered 17 sacks. To date, no one has figured out how to slow down the Baylor attack. Baylor is on pace to lead the nation in total offense for the third straight year; this after finishing #2 in 2011 and 2012. And their best players, OL Spencer Drango and DE Shawn Oakman – surefire first round draft picks – work in the trenches. The Bears have won 18 straight in Waco. WVU’s best player, DB Karl Joseph, has been lost for the season. The Mountaineers have won only 11 of their last 29 league games. |
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10-16-15 | Cincinnati +6.5 v. BYU | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Moore for Kiel has given Cincy 736 passing yards in their last 2 games. That, along with reduced turn over penchant (from 12 previous 3 games, to 1) staked Cincinnati to upset of Miami (17½ point cover). BYU QB Mangum is ailing, and Byu hasn't covered since 9/19, blowing a 38-21 lead in East Carolina squeaker. Bearcats should stay under the number if not win it outright. |
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10-15-15 | UCLA v. Stanford -6.5 | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No questioning resurgent Cardinals who have 639-229 rushing yard edge in their L2 games (362 from McCaffrey) and covered their last home game by 24½ (on 7-1 ATS run by 82 points). Bruins were outgunned hosting Arizona State, with a 192-62 rushing yard deficit. Thus, definite Cardinal overland edge. And Hogan over Rosen. |
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10-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers +4 v. San Diego Chargers | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Injuries are wreaking havoc on the offensive line for San Diego, and is one of the reasons first-round draft pick Melvin Gordon is off to a slow start in his rookie campaign, failing to surpass 51 yards in three of his four games. The Chargers have been generous against the run, yielding 126.8 yards per game. Speedster Martavis Bryant, who had eight TD receptions last season, returns for Pittsburgh from a four-game suspension while running back Le'Veon Bell will continue to be the focal point of the offense after rushing for 129 yards last week and catching seven passes for the second straight game. Pittsburgh has been stingy on defense, allowing 18.8 points. The Chargers, also, haven’t been covering spreads going 3-12 ATS the past 15 times. |
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10-11-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. NY Giants -6.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems as if there are a huge batch of juicy chalk plays in the NFL this week, with perhaps this one leading the way. Not only are the Giants having little trouble moving the ball, behind Eli's 7 touchdowns and only 1 interception start, but are in off holding the potent Bills to just 10 points, 14 first downs, and 55 rushing yards. In stark contrast, the Niners, who are in off the Steelers, Cards, and Packers, stand at 1-8-1 ATS, with the home team holding a 72-point ATS edge for the year. Try a 107-28 point deficit since their opener. Giants are 7- 2 ATS versus San Francisco, as well as 7-0 ATS versus losing NFC teams. |
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10-11-15 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +5 | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems unbelievable, but the Bronco defense has to carry the water for its suddenly ineffectual offense. Denver's stop unit is at the top of the NFL heap (7 sacks in tight win over the Vikings), while its offense ranks 30th, with Peyton just 6 touchdowns with 5 interceptions for the season, and its once feared overland game coming in at 31st. The Raiders' 2-game run is a thing of the past, in last second loss to the Bears, but did give the road favorite role a run for its money. Back home now, so note covering their last home game by 7½ points. Carr at 861 passing yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his last 3 games. Del Rio faces his former team, and may squeak out an outright win. |
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10-11-15 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day The Cardinals defeated the Lions with Drew Stanton at quarterback last season, 14-6. Arizona is much more potent this season with a healthy Carson Palmer averaging 37 points per contest. Arizona had covered its past eight games with Palmer as a starter until last Sunday’s loss to the Rams when the Cardinals had to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns during many trips inside the Red Zone. Matthew Stafford entered Week 4 having thrown the most interceptions in the NFC. A short week after playing the physical Seahawks on Monday doesn’t leave the Lions in a great spot either physically or mentally. |
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10-11-15 | Cleveland Browns +7.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Semi-miracle win for Ravens, taking Pitt in OT, after a pair of missed Scobee field goals, coupled with 42 and 52 yard Tucker field goals (final 0:03 and in OT). Baltimore came from 73 rushing yards per game, to 191 versus Pittsburgh, behind Forsett's 150. Flacco had 1 touchdown and 1 interception last week, and now has 5 touchdowns with 5 interceptions for the season. Browns come in off losing to the Chargers on 2nd try field goal on the final play. The dog is now 9-2-2 ATS in Cleveland games, as well as 9-2 ATS in Baltimore contests, so this should be fairly close. Ravens are 1-8 ATS a division home favorites of 4+ points, while the Browns are 8-1 ATS off a SU loss, and 9-3 ATS as an underdog. Take the points |
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10-11-15 | Chicago Bears v. Kansas City Chiefs -9 | 18-17 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, the bloom is off the road edge in Chief games, for the time being, with back-to- back 38-point defensive efforts at Green Bay and Cincinnati. A 3-game losing streak, allowing 31.7 points per game. And KC's "D" ranks just 25th. Admittedly, the Bears aren't even close to the level of the Packers and the Bengals, so a definite shot for the Chiefs to call a halt to their slide, and do it up right. First win for Fox in taking Raiders on 49-yard field goal in last 0:02. But KC 9-0 ATS as a non-division chalk of 8 or more points. |
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10-10-15 | Wyoming v. Air Force -23.5 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Four Falcon turn overs in loss at Navy (all in Middie territory) was too much to overcome. But still +72½ points ATS last in their 13 lined games, and are averaging 326 rushing yards per game. Made to order versus a Cowboy defense which ranks 111th in containing the run, and 103 in scoring defense. They are giving up 40 points per game in 20-of- their-last-21 lined games |
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10-10-15 | San Jose State -2.5 v. UNLV | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A nice 24-15 first down and 413-339 total yardage edge for the Spartans, in 35-21 loss at Auburn (4-0 turn over deficit). Nicely balanced, and Ervin #2 in the nation, with 160 rushing yards per game. The visitor now a perfect 11-0 ATS in Vegas games. |
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10-10-15 | Miami (Fla) +9 v. Florida State | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 78 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day Florida State rolls into this one with a solid defense, but their numbers have been produced versus questionable opponents and they have the 47th ranked offense. FSU is -30 points ATS since their opener, and the underdog is 12-2-1 ATS in Seminole games. Miami is certainly no prize, themselves, but keep in mind that the visitor is 5-1-1 ATS (+41½ points). This series is an underdog/roadie series |
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10-10-15 | Boise State -16 v. Colorado State | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams are just 3 points from and 0-4 SU run. They have allowed 279, 298 rushing yards the L2 weeks, and now are at -58½ points ATS in their last 6 games. The Bronco's a 112-14 point edge in their last 2 games, and covered their last road game by 39½ |
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10-10-15 | Navy v. Notre Dame -14 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 70 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Four turn overs did Irish in at Clemson, despite a 437-296 yard edge, missing tying 2-point conversion in the final 0:02. Kizer: 321 passing yards. Home team is 5-0-1 ATS in Notre Dame games, by 75½ points. Navy is allowing just 15 points per game and are at 340 rushing yards per game. QB Reynolds is special, but simply cannot ignore Irish home record |
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10-10-15 | Iowa State v. Texas Tech -11.5 | Top | 31-66 | Win | 100 | 70 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit BIG-12 Game of the Week After facing Tcu and Baylor (118-88 point deficit), the Raiders will feel like a runner with weights removed. Mahomes at 367 passing yard per game, but no run defense for Tech. Iowa State's in off most lopsided win in 2 years. But even after all that, it won't happen hear! Tech primed to unload on Cyclones for a big win. |
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10-05-15 | Detroit Lions v. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle comes into this one with a win and cover with their defense whole again (allowed 7 first downs). But in that 26-0 win over Chicago, Seattle managed just 1 sustained touchdown drive (4 fieldgoals). However, the Lion defense shouldn't be much of a problem. Seattle is 8-1 ATS on Monday, as well as 12-0 in the 2nd of 2 home games versus a less than .500 opponent. The Lions are 1-10 ATS on the AFC road, and 0-10 ATS on the road versus the NFC West. The home team is 9-3 ATS in Detroit games, with the favorite at 9-3 ATS |
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10-04-15 | St Louis Rams v. Arizona Cardinals -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Game of the Day The Cards have posted back to back 40+ point games for their first time since '69, and in off their largest victory margin since '70. Arizona now 9-0 SU when Palmer starts, so note the correlation, as Cards were at 12.9 points per game in their final 8 games last year. The Rams have come from a 4-0 run, to current 1-5 slide, and check just 11 and 12 first downs the last 2 weeks. St Louis score wise: from 34 points, to 10 points, to 6 points. In addition, the Cardinals are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 home games under Bruce Arians. |
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10-04-15 | Houston Texans +6 v. Atlanta Falcons | 21-48 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Falcons had the worst pass defense last season and it’s not much better this year ranking 29th. Atlanta also rates in the bottom six defensively in yards allowed. Houston ranks in the top 12 both in offensive yards and giving up the fewest yards. The Texans are a tough, physical team. No team runs the ball more. Ryan Mallet is starting to look more comfortable. RB Alfred Blue had a breakout performance last week and is capable. Houston is a power team. Atlanta is more finesse. So it’s not an ideal matchup for the Falcons. |
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10-04-15 | Carolina Panthers -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucs are 0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Last year, Tampa Bay lost eight games by six points or less. Carolina is 9-1 in its last 10 games. The Panthers have outgained 10 of their last 11 opponents. Jameis Winston has the best receiver, Mike Evans, but Cam Newton has the better ground attack even if Jonanthan Stewart can’t play. Winston is minus 6-foot-5 inch, security blanket Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The Panthers are tough on lower-tier quarterbacks have already posted victories against Blake Bortles, Ryan Mallet and Luke McCown. |
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10-04-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jacksonville has promising talent, including quarterback Blake Bortles. The Jaguars were missing multiple starters in their blowout loss to New England this past Sunday, including offensive left tackle Luke Joeckel. They should get a number of them back for this matchup The 1-2 Colts were one of the most disappointing teams during September. Andrew Luck has been picked off seven times. He’s yet to develop a consistent rhythm with his receivers, several of whom are new. The main culprit for Luck’s struggles, though, is Indy’s makeshift offensive line. To cap off this selection Indianapolis is 1-12 as an October home favorite. |
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10-04-15 | NY Jets -1 v. Miami Dolphins | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only one way to go for Dolphins, following 41-14 pasting in hosting the Bills, which represented the most lopsided home opener loss in the history of this franchise. Fish have a 435-253 rushing yard deficit this year, and Tannehill came from a 3 touchdown 0 interception start to 2 touchdowns with 3 interceptions versus Buffalo. Miami is now in a current 1-7 ATS slide. So not in the best of shape. Jets came from a 5-1 turnover edge, in upset of Indianapolis, to a 4-1 deficit in loss to Philadelphia. But they didn't fold after quick 24-0 deficit, losing by just 24-17. Miami's Philbin is 0-5 ATS in 2nd of 2 division games and 0-3 versus the Jets |
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10-03-15 | Air Force +5.5 v. Navy | 11-33 | Loss | -112 | 68 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I hardy ever stay away from dog when these 2 teams meet. Rested Falcons had a 104-yard edge at Mich Statate and +88½ points ATS in their last 12 contests. Navy comes into thi one rolling along at +49½ points ATS in their L2 home games. Air Force and Navy have 367 and 363 rushing yards per game. This one will be close. Take the points as usual. |
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10-03-15 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo +8.5 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 67 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls come into this one steaming over loss to Nevada where they had greater than a 200 yard edge, but 3-0 TO deficit. But they are still +74½ points ATS in their last 5 games. The Dog is now 13-3 ATS in Falcon games (beat Purdue in last 0:09). Licata versus Johnson in a shoot out. |
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10-03-15 | Alabama +2.5 v. Georgia | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 67 h 7 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day This is the first underdog role for Alabama since the '09 SEC title game where they beat Florida 32-13. Alabama ranks just 37th on offense, but 4th and 12th in run and total defense. Georgia comes in off a 318-yard edge over South Carolina, with another 3 touchdowns from Chubb who has 100+ yards in 12 straight games. Georgia is formidable, but Alabama excels in this setup. |
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10-03-15 | Louisville v. NC State -4 | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals have dropped 4 straight lined games SU, but note 212 passing yards, 184 rushing yards from frosh QB Jackson last week, and visitor is 10-1 ATS in Louisville games. But NC State +199½ points ATS in their L9 games and they have a very solid defense. |
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10-03-15 | West Virginia +7 v. Oklahoma | 24-44 | Loss | -111 | 64 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rested Oklahoma got a school record 572 passing yards from Mayfield who has 8 touchdowns in their L2 games and got 152 rushing yards from Perine, in win over Tulsa (Note: 16-point ATS loss). West Virginia has 27 and 22½ point covers so far (37-14 first down edge over Maryland), and add the fact that the dog is on a 12-3-1 ATS run in West Virginia games. Take the points. |
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10-03-15 | Iowa +7 v. Wisconsin | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 63 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit NCAAF Free Pick What a difference a year makes as the Badgers rank 100th in rushing offense when last year the were #4 , before 326 versus Hawaii. Wisconsin has 114-3 point edge at home, but that is against poor competition. Iowa comes into this one unbeaten while allowing just 19 points per game in lined games and have the 20th ranked total defense. In addition, QB Beathard hit his first 15 passes last week. |
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10-03-15 | Michigan -16 v. Maryland | Top | 28-0 | Win | 100 | 98 h 12 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit BIG-10 Game of the Week Michigan comes into this one owning a 94-14 point edge in their last 3 games (24½ point cover versus BYU), with a 733-201 rushing yard edge. Maryland was exposed by West Virginia, and just out of their league versus the BIG-10 upper echelon teams. It's the first road game since 9/3 for Michigan, but own the 2nd best defense in the nation. No contest in this one. |
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09-28-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +7 v. Green Bay Packers | 28-38 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - It's only fitting that in the season in which the NFL celebrates its 50th Super Bowl, the Chiefs will play the Packers. The score of the inaugural Super Bowl: Green Bay 35 - KansasCity 10. Both teams are legitimate possibilities to meet again, in this years Super Bowl, although highly unlikely. A Denver/GreenBay/Cincinnati run for Chiefs, but a Seattle/KC/San Francisco run for the Pack. The visitor in Chief games is 24-4 ATS. Kansas City catches Green Bay off tough revenging win over the Seahawks, and have an extra 3 days to prepare. |
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09-27-15 | Buffalo Bills +3 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day The Bills have a 307-120 rushing yard edge this year, while the Dolphins have a 284-116 rushing yard deficit. And Miami is a 3 point favorite? As per usual, Buffalo couldn't stay with the Patriots, despite an overly hyped crowd, as a quick 7-0 lead melted into a 37-13 deficit. But Taylor was 23-of-30 (76.7%) for 242 yards, but he had 3 touchdowns with 3 interceptions and now has 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for the season. Tannehill comes in with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while completing 67% so far, but that rushing yard edge for Buffalo cannot overlooked. The Bills won, 29-10, here a year ago. |
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09-27-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers +1 v. St Louis Rams | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week The problem for St. Louis is an extremely young offensive line that is enduring growing pains. Sparked by promising second-year linebacker Ryan Shazier, the Steelers showed defensive improvement against the 49ers, who did much of their damage during garbage time in a 43-18 loss to the Steelers. St. Louis’ defensive strength is a fierce pass rush that has accounted for eight sacks. Roethlisberger counters this by operating a no-huddle offense. Pittsburgh’s offense is going to be even better now because Le’Veon Bell comes off suspension. Bell set a Steelers team record by gaining 2,215 yards from scrimmage last season. Until burying the 49ers this past week, the Steelers were 0-5 and averaging 16 points when yhey didn’t have Bell. When they have had Bell, Pittsburgh is 19-10 while averaging 26.7 points. |
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09-27-15 | Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Tennessee Titans | 35-33 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, Mariota got his comeuppance in loss to the Browns, right? Well, not so quick to disparage this rising star, as he absorbed 7 sacks in that one, and still moved his TD-to-INT ratio to a perfect 6/0 for the year. So, a 31-pint home cover for the Titans, along with a 15½-point road loss. Sure, it may continue, but we can't ignore such figures as Pagano's 12-1 ATS mark versus division opponents, as well as Colts' 7-0 spread run as division road favorites, nor the simple 6-0-1 ATS run for Indy over Tenn. |
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09-27-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Houston Texans -6.5 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, there are only 2 winless AFC squads at this early date. Not unexpected, but the fact that those teams are the Ravens and these Texans is quite surprising. Fact is that Houston has held 5-of-6 opponents to 20 points or less, but check that 172-61 rushing yard deficit at Carolina. The Bucs turned it around last week, with upset of the free-falling Saints, after that 42-14 blowout loss versus the Titans. First touchdown pass for Winston, and you know that Watts is licking his chops for a shot at him. Tampa is 1-7 ATS after playing the Saints. |
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09-27-15 | San Diego Chargers +2 v. Minnesota Vikings | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are young with enough talent to be playoff contenders. Each relies on their superstar. Philip Rivers is healthy again, something he wasn’t during his second half of the season nosedive last year. Adrian Peterson is back running with authority, but still rusty fumbling three times last week. Minnesota has allowed an average of 3.4 sacks during its last 14 games. San Diego is on the road a second consecutive week with an early start time. The Chargers, however, have covered 64 percent during the last 22 times they’ve been a regular season underdog and also are 16-7 ATS when playing out of division |
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09-26-15 | UCLA v. Arizona +4 | 56-30 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bloom is off the Rosen, as Bruin QB was just 11-of-23 for 106 yards with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions last week. But Perkins has 370 rushing yards the last 2 weeks. Took Byu in last 3:21. 'Cats not the best of host plays, but undefeated and Solomon a perfect 10 touchdowns with 0 interceptions for the season. The host owns this series, and veteran 'Zona should extend it |
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09-26-15 | Texas State v. Houston -16 | 14-59 | Win | 100 | 94 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston is rested off upset of Louisville, in which they had a 226-70 rushing yard edge. Now on 19-7-1 ATS run. Well remember last years shocking loss to the 'Cats, as 38-point favorites. Texas State allowing 560 yards per game, and pay price |
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09-26-15 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 94 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Tigers were never in the LSU game going down 24-0 at the half, with a 411-160 rushing yard deficit. QB Johnson their only offense? They are Now 1-8 ATS in SEC play. Bulldogs and Prescott 5 touchdowns a 0 interceptions this year picking up where they left off in '14, and the dog is 8-1 ATS in Mississippi State contests. The wrong team is favored in this one |
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09-26-15 | San Diego State v. Penn State -14.5 | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 89 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Penn State coming on. Check rushing yard outputs so far of 77, 200, 330. Barkley and Lynch versus Rutgers had 195 and 120 rushing yards (9.3 and 12.0 yards per rush. The Lions own 12th best run defense. Aztecs faltering (-38½ points ATS this year). In off overtime loss to South Alabama, with a 511-305 yard deficit, and have the 125th rushing offense. |
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09-26-15 | Virginia Tech -8 v. East Carolina | 28-35 | Loss | -106 | 89 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nice rebounding for 'Hokies after opening loss to Ohio Stare, with Motley 2-0 since replacing Brewer. Tech held Purdue to 9 first downs, with 471-265 yard edge. East Carolina took them in final 0:16 a year ago, but is currently 2-9 ATS (-79½ points), and ranks 125th in rushing offense. Tech blows them out! |
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09-25-15 | Stanford -16 v. Oregon State | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Has the "buy sign" been lit following Card upset of Usc? Turned 21-10 deficit into 41-31 win, with 39:29-20:31 time edge. Hogan: 620 passing yards, 5 touchdowns in the last 2 weeks. Finally a win and cover for Beavers versus hapless San Jose State, coming from 59 rushing yards to 303. But still on 2-9 ATS run. |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins +4 v. NY Giants | 21-32 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Given Tony Romo’s collarbone injury and how poorly the Eagles are playing this NFC East matchup takes on added significance. Despite being beset with defensive injuries, the Giants would be 2-0 instead of 0-2 if not for blowing fourth quarter leads against Dallas and Atlanta. Statistically-speaking, the Redskins could be 2-0 instead of 1-1. They have outgained their two opponents, Dolphins and Rams, 722 yards to 469 while owning time of possession with an average of 37:49 minutes to 22:11. The Giants’ run defense needs the return of injured middle linebacker Jon Beason to help combat the Redskins’ 1-2 running punch of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones. |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts -7 | 20-7 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's a division sandwich for the Colts, but after their dismal showing at Buffalo, a quick bounce back is in the Cards for Luck and his teammates. Five takeaways greased the skids for Bowles' first win as new HC of the Jets, but continuing versus this type is unlikely, especially in this setup, as Indy is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a Monday chalk of greater than 1½ points. The Jets are 0-7 as September underdogs versus an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Throw in Pagano's record of 10-1 ATS off a SU loss. Colts a bit more firepower than the Browns |
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09-20-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SNF Smoker Rodgers has a tremendously balanced offense with Eddie Lacy and Randall Cobb. Picking up veteran James Jones, a wide receiver Rodgers is comfortable with, was a huge plus. Seattle’s defense isn’t as dominant on the road and currently is minus holdout star safety Kam Chancellor. Seattle is far from intimidating away from CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their last 11 September road games. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been as effective on the road and he’s running behind a mediocre-at-best offensive line that when the shuffling finally stopped starts two players who went undrafted and one who was taken in the seventh round of the draft. This has Green Bay’s written all over it. |
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09-20-15 | Dallas Cowboys +5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFC Game of the Day The Cowboys have a veteran, productive, high-percentage in passer in Tony Romo as an underdog against the Sam Bradford-led Eagles, who are all about “potential.” Bradford, a 58.2% career completion percentage person, has played all of one real game for Philly. It wasn’t pretty, and although there is potential to improve, potential at -5 is a tightrope walk. The Eagles could not run DeMarco Murray much on Monday Night because of the scoreboard situation. The situation was that they were trailing by 17 points at halftime. A lot of people assume that when they start 0-0 here, Murray will make the Cowboys suffer for letting him go to Philadelphia in free agency. But he’s no lock to run as well as he did behind the Eagles line as he did behind the Dallas line. Different blocking schemes. And the Cowboys know how to make him fumble. |
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Steelers out played the Pats in theirThursday Night game, 464-361 in total yards, with Ben tossing for 351 yards. RB Williams also had 127 rushing yards. A year ago, Pittsburgh scored at least 30 points in 5 of its first 6 home games, so why not again, as Steelers catch 49ers off their Monday Night game with the Vikings. San Francisco had a 217-165 point deficit in their previous 10 games prior to last Monday, and were 0-5-1 ATS, by 48½ points. It's all Pittsburgh today until the Niners find some answers. |
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09-20-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Chicago Bears +2.5 | 48-23 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Palmer has been simply splendid during his gig with the Cards. last week: 307 passing yards along with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and he has become the first Card QB since Jim Hart to win 7 straight starts. 'Zona also posted 120 rushing yards, but 69 of those yards came from Ellington (5.8 yards per rush), and he is questionable for this one. The Bears are in a Packer/Seahawk sandwich here, but they did move it versus Green Bay (402-322 yard edge and 25 first downs), behind 142 rushing yards from Forte. Jake had only 1 touchdown with 1 interception last week , but a bit of awakening this time around. |
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09-20-15 | Houston Texans +3 v. Carolina Panthers | 17-24 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texans got off slowly versus the Chiefs, with a 27-6 deficit, before 27-20 final. A 2-0 turnover deficit is always crucial, and insertion of Mallett for Hoyer was a success, going 8-of-13 with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. Houston has held its last 5 opponents to 20 points or less. Carolina is 6-1 SU (Seattle),and that Panther defense has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 11.3 points per game. They had 5 sacks and 3 takeaways versus the Jags, although Carolina managed just 263 yards, and one offensive touchdown. Houston is 5-0 SU in their 2nd game of the year, so call an upset in what should be a defensive struggle. |
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09-20-15 | St Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +3.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems like nothing but negatives for the Redskins who are 6-19 ATS, have a 68-17 point deficit in their last 3 non-division home games, and have failed to reach 21 points in 13 of their last 18 games. But a look at last week's stats shows Washington with 161-74 rushing yard edge over the Dolphins, but losing on a punt return for a touchdown. Cousins was a nice 21-of-31, and they had 121 rushing yards from Morris. In this one, they catch the Rams in a Seattle/Pittsburgh sandwich. Successful OT effort versus Seahawks by St. Louis, was draining, with just 1 touchdown pass from Foles. Redskins in a outright win. |
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09-19-15 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Rebel QB race is over with Kelly tossing for 346 yards and 4 touchdowns versus Fresno, in 73-21 balanced romp (22-point cover). Just 1 offensive touchdown for 'Tide in last years loss to Ole Miss, so you know Alabama will be more than ready. Super balance, behind Coke and Henry, and they held Wisconsin to 40 rushing yards. In addition, This is a big revenge game for the Tide who are 8/2 SU and 7-3 ATS with revenge under Nick Saban |
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09-19-15 | Georgia Tech -2.5 v. Notre Dame | 22-30 | Loss | -108 | 48 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Costly win for Irish last week at Viginia (after getting a touchdown last 0:12), losing QB Zaire in the process, although Kizer was decent going 8-of-12 with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. In addition check out 155 rushing from Prosise. But Jackets at 457.5 rushing yards per game and on an 8-0 ATS run (+174 points). Only 1 TD allowed this year (44-yard pass). |
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09-19-15 | Cincinnati -19.5 v. Miami (OH) | 37-33 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Highly misleading loss for Bearcats versus Temple, as 4 Kiel picks offset 34-13 first down and 557-296 yard edges. Dog mystique of MU faded a bit with 58-0 loss to Wisconsin (9 first downs). Cincinnati has won the last nine meetings and will extend that skein if they avoid the turnovers that plagued them last week |
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09-19-15 | East Carolina v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 98 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week After a strong performance versus Towson on Week 1, ECU’s top ball-carrier, Chris Hairston, had only 15 yards on 17 carries versus Florida. This is the biggest Navy team ever. The five projected starting OL average 288 pounds. The three fullbacks range from 245 to 255. The top WR, Jamir Tillman, stands 6’4”. The QB, Keenan Reynolds, belongs in the Heisman conversation. Reynolds is on course to set the NCAA career mark for rushing touchdowns. ECU gave a spirited effort in Gainesville in a futile quest to avenge last year’s bowl loss. Navy opened with Colgate and was idle last week. The Midshipmen are an easy call. |
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09-19-15 | Rice -7.5 v. North Texas | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 88 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas/Baylor sandwich for Owls, who held 30-11 first down, 462-277 yard and 44:02-17:58 time edges over 'Horns (5-0 TO deficit killed them). A 442-244 yard deficit for Green at SMU who supposedly has flimsy defense. No issue laying the points in this one. |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs -3 | 31-24 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s always a tough spot for the Thursday visitor being forced to travel so early in the week. A greater concern for the Broncos, though, is their offense and Peyton Manning’s decline. Denver’s offense ran out of steam losing to the Bengals during Week 16 of last season and being held to 13 points in the playoffs by Indianapolis. Then this past Sunday, Manning could lead Denver to only four field goals at home against Baltimore. The Chiefs’ run defense is strengthened by the return of 346-pound nose tackle Dontari Poe. |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 24-26 | Loss | -117 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twenty wins for the Eagles since the arrival of Kelly, and Philadelphia is at 30.3 points per game in their last 25 games (covered last road game by 10½ points). By the same token, note that the Falcons finished last season at 28 points per game in 5 of their final 6 games. The Eagles have added RB Murray from Dallas, as well as Bradford from the Rams, so an even more potent offense. The Falcons have just 10 wins the last 2 years, opening 2-9 and 2-6 SU. Matty Ice still flinging it (4,694 yards and 28 touchdowns in '14), but no running, and very little defense, so they grabbed DC Quinn from Seattle. It will take time to improve so take the more prolific offense. |
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09-13-15 | Baltimore Ravens +5 v. Denver Broncos | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ravens defense finished in the top eight in fewest yards allowed per game and fewest points per game in 2014. They have the finest pass rushing tandem in the NFL in Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs, who teamed up for 29 sacks last season. They can disrupt Manning’s precious flow and timing. Manning desperately needs to have this since he can no longer throw deep anymore. Unlike last year, the Ravens now have a healthy secondary, too. Baltimore hasn’t had a losing year in seven seasons under John Harbaugh, averaging nearly 12 victories per season. The Ravens have covered the last four times they were underdogs, winning three of those games straight-up. |
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09-13-15 | Green Bay Packers -6 v. Chicago Bears | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jay Cutler has a knack for having his worst games against Green Bay. Cutler has lost the past seven times to the Packers, who have won 18 of their last 22 at Solider Field winning and covering the last five times. Cutler has been picked off 19 times in 10 games versus Green Bay. Chicago’s defense has ranked among the worst in franchise history the last two years. This is saying a lot since the Bears have been playing in Chicago since 1921! Things aren’t looking up either this season as the Bears’ secondary remains highly inviting – ripe for Aaron Rodgers to pick apart. Chicago is just 1-8 ATS versus the Pack (0-5 as series host). While the Favorite is 11-6 ATS in GB games. |
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09-13-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Buffalo Bills +3 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo led the NFL in sacks last season, while finishing fourth-best overall defensively holding opponents to an average of 18 points and 312 yards per game. Marcell Dareus, the Bills’ excellent defensive tackle, is suspended for this game. However, Buffalo can still harass Luck with Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes. LeSean McCoy led the NFL in rushing two years ago. He can carry Buffalo’s offense, taking the pressure off Taylor. The Colts’ defense is soft. Taylor brings a running and mobility dimension to Buffalo’s offense. The Bills have upgraded their receiving corps, too, picking up Percy Harvin and tight end Charles Clay to go along with holdovers Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. The Bills are going to be sky high as this is Rex Ryan’s Buffalo coaching debut. Ryan won his last four season-openers when he was with the Jets. In addition, the host is 12-4 ATS in Bill contests, Buffalo 8-2 ATS in game 1, and 14-4 ATS as series host. |
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09-13-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 v. Houston Texans | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chiefs have won 20 games in Reid's 2-year tenure, but have only 1 playoff game to show for it. With Denver and Green Bay on deck, a possible tendency to peek ahead, but KC has played its best on the road. As a matter of fact, the visitor is 22-4 ATS in Chief contests, while the Texans are a horrible 2-13 ATS at home the last 2 years. Houston improved dramatically under O'Brien in '14, with winning 9-7 mark, after 2-14 in '13. Wolfork, Clowney, and Watt lead solid defense, but note Texans are just so-so in the aerial game, and loss of Johnson will be felt. |
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09-13-15 | Seattle Seahawks -4 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Last year, when the Seahawks played on this field, the Rams (+6½) pulled the 28-26 upset, thanks, in part, to a successful faked punt late in the game. So you know that Seattle who is 47-20-1 ATS lately will be more than prepared. Still one of the best teams in the NFL, especially with that impregnable defense. The addition of TE Graham from New Orleans gives QB Wilson another key option. Rams swapped Bradford for Foles, but their offensive line is still a problem, with the use of rookies needed, so that will take some time. St Louis lost its last home game by 16½ points ATS, and now face determined Seahawks team. |
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09-12-15 | Boise State -2.5 v. BYU | 24-35 | Loss | -108 | 80 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Unbelievable windup in BYU upset at Nebraska (42-yard Mangum touchdown pass on the last play), but can't mask loss of Heisman talented Hill. Visitor 10-2 ATS in Byu games, while Boise is solid road play. Only 83 yards for Broncos in 2nd half versus Washington, but note 185-29 rushing yard edge |
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09-12-15 | Oregon v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -106 | 80 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Last week I was on Michigan State and it appears that they were looking to this game versus Oregon. As a result they produced a non-cover win at Western Michigan when they led 34-10 late in 3rd quarter. In that game the Spartans allowed an unthinkable 365 Passing yards, so new Duck QB Adams (19-of-25 last week) could be trouble, and note 485 rushing yards (Freeman: 180). But Michigan State is +164 points ATS in their last 20 games, and are hungry this one. |
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09-12-15 | Arizona v. Nevada +12 | 44-20 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Barnburning series, so why anything different this time around? 'Pack lose 10 starters, and unimpressive versus Davis, but note Jackson's 9.5 yards per rush. 'Cats Solomon last week had 4 touchdowns, but a 525-392 Arizona yard deficit in 22-point ATS loss to Utsa, and 9-of-last-13 SU wins have come by less than 11 points |
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09-12-15 | Oklahoma v. Tennessee | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 78 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day These 2 were placed 21st & 22nd in our "Polls" column, and have responded accordingly. Oklahoma's Mayfield had 388 passing yards and 3 touchdowns in new Air Raid Offense (439-88 passing yard edge versus Akron), under new offensive coach Riley. The Tennessee Vols turned in 29 first downs, 399 rushing yards, and 604 total yards in rout of Bowling Green, but check 433 passing yards. It will be a shootout with Okie taking it at the end. |
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09-12-15 | Notre Dame -11.5 v. Virginia | 34-27 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cavs are under-the-radar as they covered at Ucla in the final 3:29, and QB Johns is solid. But they have no overland game, and have lost a dozen starters. Can't see them doing much versus this Irish defense (30-8 first down edge versus Texas), and Zaire 19-of-22, 313 yards, with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota v. Colorado State +6.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hurry up offense under new HC Bobo was a hit versus patsy Savannah (Stevens 289 passing yards, 5 touchdowns in his 1st start), but much tougher versus tenacious Gophers (+103½ points ATS last 5), who had 14-6 windup in cover versus Tcu. Solid defense, but that offense is still a bit iffy. Take the points in a mild upset |
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09-11-15 | Utah State +13 v. Utah | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah took Michigan with a 55-yard interception return (along with 3 interceptions) and Wilson was 24-of-33. Sixteen starters, but this is normally wild. Note Utah State's stellar QB Keeton was just 16-of-33 for 110 yards versus Southern Utah, in a lackluster 12-9 win (they needed an 88-yard punt return to take it). I expect things to return to normal tonight. Lot's of points....take |
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09-10-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots -7 | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Has anyone heard the word "Deflategate" during the off-season? Forget it. He's back. Brady has been given the okay, with his 4-game suspension waved to play tonight. The line reacted to that news by moving from 3 to 7 points. Loss of Revis, Wolfork, and Vareen hurts, but Belichick will plug in TE Chandler, and CB Fletcher. Pats rarely miss a beat regardless of their many changeovers. The host is covered 26-6 in New England games of late, and the Patriots are 9-3 ATS versus the Steelers. Pittsburgh dearly hurt with loss of Polamalu, and defensive coach LeBeau. |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State -11 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 141 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units The Hokies are always a premier dog, and are especially primed for this one, after doing a number on the national champs last year. However, this Buckeye team has no weaknesses, as they were >41 points 11 times last year, and +106½ points ATS in their last 3 games. You can forget the fact that the dog is 7-0 ATS in OSU games. Elliott is unstoppable, as are all QBs. A huge revenge call here. |
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09-05-15 | Wisconsin +12 v. Alabama | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All-everything running back Melvin Gordon is on to the NFL but there's not an abundance of fear over that loss with junior Corey Clement (949 yards, nine touchdowns) coming off a highly productive backup season. Senior quarterback Joel Stave looks to rebound after throwing more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (nine) last season and Chryst visions him returning to his 2013 form when he tossed 24 scoring passes. The Badgers ranked fourth nationally in total defense last season (294.1) and return two standout outside linebackers in junior Vince Biegel (team-best 16.5 tackles for losses) and senior Joe Schobert (13.5) as well senior safety Michael Caputo (team-high 106 tackles). This may be Nick Saban’s weakest Alabama team. There’s only one QB on the roster that has taken a snap in a real game and he’s a journeyman. |
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09-05-15 | Texas +10 v. Notre Dame | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units NCAAF Play of the Day Notre Dame won its first six games last season before Everett Golson’s turnover problems at quarterback helped lead to a 2-5 finish. Golson is gone after a transfer to Florida State and Malik Zaire, who started a win over LSU in the Music City Bowl last season, will take over under center. Zaire will get a stiff test in the opener from Texas, which had its problems on offense last season under first-year coach Charlie Strong, but was stout defensively and held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 184.2 yards passing. The Irish are just 11-11 ATS. |
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09-05-15 | Arizona State +3 v. Texas A&M | 17-38 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not really a nuetral game for the Aggies, but the host edge has hardly been an advantage, having gone 0-6 ATS in that role since the departure of Manziel. On a 2-5 SU slide, with their only wins coming by only 5 and 3 points. Arizona State has seen the last of QB Kelly, but the defense returns 10 starters, and is vastly improved. |
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09-05-15 | Louisville +11 v. Auburn | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 89 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Upset Special This could very well be a shootout, despite the fact that both return 3 down linemen on defense. The Tigers are only 2-8 ATS, following their 12-0 run in '13, and they've said good-bye to QB Marshall, while the Cardinals are fantastic away from home, and have scored 30 or more points in 7 of their last 8 games. Eagles not the best of favorites, so a dog call here. |
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09-04-15 | Michigan State -17.5 v. Western Michigan | 37-24 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A quick look at my stats archive shows the Spartans possessing a 12-2 spread record as a road favorite, while the Broncos sport a 2-8 mark as a home dog. In their last meeting ('13) Michigan State managed just 1 offensive touchdown , but the emergence of QB Cook leaves that former unit in the dust. Michigan State is +167½ points ATS in their last 19 games, and their defense is outstanding. |
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09-04-15 | Baylor -35 v. SMU | 56-21 | Push | 0 | 68 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, the Bears are averaging 51.3 points per game over their last 31 games, and return 18 starters, although 1 of the 4 departed includes brilliant QB Petty. However, BU should hardly miss a beat with Russell. The Mustangs had a 133-492 point deficit last year, being held to 10 points or less 9 times, and despite 16 returning starters, are simply owned by BU. |
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09-03-15 | TCU -14 v. Minnesota | 23-17 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Can the absolute unbelievable offense of the Frogs continue, versus this always tenacious Minnesota squad? Well, the Gophers did cover their last 4 games by 93½ points, but note the Frogs are at +198½ points ATS in their last 13 lined games, as well as having a 145-16 point edge in their last 4 games. Boykin and 9 other starters return, so I am giving the nod over the Gophers and their 10-2 ATS run as an underdog. |
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09-03-15 | Oklahoma State -24.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Well, it didn't take the Cowboys long to regain their offensive form, covering their last 3 games by a combined 46½ points, including an shocking upset of Oklahoma. No less than 17 starters return, so that momentum should carry over. The Chips are horrible in the home dog role, with the favorite on a 20-8 ATS run. |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks +1 v. New England Patriots | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New England has the more dangerous and varied offense. The Patriots put up 35 points on Baltimore and 45 points on Indianapolis during the playoffs. The Ravens gave up the sixth-fewest points per game on the season and tied for the second-most sacks, while the Colts had been on a defensive roll holding the Bengals and Broncos to a combined 23 points in their two playoff contests. Again, if not counting the meaningless regular-season finale against the Bills, the Patriots would have averaged 33.4 points a game. That would have ranked No. 1 in the league. If you add in their two playoff victories, the Patriots’ scoring average goes up even higher to nearly 35 points a game. New England’s defense is decent enough to slow down the Seahawks, who will be overly dependent on Lynch with their limited wide receivers facing a much improved Patriots secondary that features shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis. The Patriots are opportunistic being a plus 12 in turnover margin, which tied for second-best. They have the high-powered versatile offense that can put up enough points against a Seahawks defense that is down several defensive linemen, including underrated nose tackle Brandon Mebane, and whose secondary could be banged-up worse than they are letting on. Seattle is very tough and resilient. The Seahawks are a proud Super Bowl champion. But this matchup is at a neutral site so Seattle isn’t going to have its fabled 12th man advantage. The recommendation here isn’t against the Seahawks. It’s on New England in a battle of two great teams |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -6.5 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Brady, hasn’t shown signs of slippage during the second half of the season like Peyton Manning and he isn’t a choke artist like Andy Dalton. The Colts weren’t able to step up when they lost to the Ravens, 24-9, in the playoffs during Luck’s first year and they weren’t able to step up last season at Foxboro in the playoffs. Luck keeps getting better. He very well may be the most valuable player nextseason, but right now the Patriots still have too much for the Colts to overcome on the road. Luck has failed three times to dent Belichick’s defense, lacking a ground attack and enough receiving weapons to accomplish the task, which is made more difficult by the Patriots upgrading their secondary by having Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner come on board this season. Indy’s time is getting closer, but it’s not here yet. |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | 22-28 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Seahawks own the premier home field in the NFL (22-2 SU), and are on a 47-18-1 ATS run overall. They rank not only #1 overall on defense, but #1 versus the pass, as well. Wilson continues to amaze. A nice 15-of-22 versus the Panthers. He was 8-for-8 on 3rd down throws, while averaging 24.9 yards per throw (highest in NFL this year). A bevy of receivers, with Lynch always a threat to take it the distance. An overpowering force, with an attitude other squads can only dream to duplicate. The Packers, of course, are just 4 seasons removed from their Super Bowl title, and have been a steady elite ever since the emergence of Rodgers as possibly the premier passer in the league. He had an amazing 41 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions this season, as well as his 66% passing. In that comeback win over Dallas, he was 9-of-9 in the 4th, the best by a QB in the playoffs in 25 years! However, although the Packers are averaging 32. 7 points per game in their last 14 games, the favorite is on an 11-5-1 ATS run in Green Bay games, and the Pack has just 1 road win since Sept (24-21 at Minny: 5½ point ATS loss). And that defense has allowed 20+ points in 7 of its last 8 games |
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01-12-15 | Ohio State +7 v. Oregon | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ohio State was impressive in dismissing Alabama. In their 12 starts since their Week Two loss to Virginia Tech, the Buckeyes have out-gained their opponents by an average of 203 yards. RB Ezekiel Elliott has been a ball of fire, rushing for 450 yards on only 40 carries in his last two outings vs. teams that were noted for their defenses (Alabama had allowed only three rushing touchdowns all season). QB Cardele Jones is very green, but he has a howitzer for an arm – hes averaging 16.7 yards per completion – and he will be throwing into an OU secondary minus Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, perhaps the nation’s best cornerback. As much as we respect the Oregon program, we can’t lay the points, not with Urban Meyer on the opposite sideline. We’re reminded that Meyer’s second team at Florida was getting 7 ½ points when they opposed Ohio State in the 2006 national title game. Meyer’s team won 41-14. |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -9 | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts are coming off an impressive showing in blowout of Cincinnati, nearly doubling the Bengals' yardage. Luck had 376 passing yards and now has 5,137 passing yards with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions for the season. He passed Kurt Warner with the most passing yards in his first 4 playoff starts (1,438 yards). But the home team is covering 6 of the Colts' last 7 games, with their only underdog role since their opener resulting in a 42-7 loss (-31½ points ATS). As far as the Broncos are concerned, they have scored 32.5 points per game in their last 46 games with another 4,727 passing yards from Peyton who finished with 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Two years of unbelievable playoff disappointments for the Broncos have resulted in a #3 ranked defense, as well as total dedication. |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys +6 v. Green Bay Packers | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowboys have ridden a 5-game winning streak (37.8 ppg) to this point. And they own a perfect 8-0 SU record away (7-1 ATS). In Romo (36/9), they have the NFL's top-rated QB, & in Murray, the league's #1 rusher (1,920 yds). They do it behind a top-quality "O" line. That comeback win over Detroit marked the first time in franchise-history that Dallas has won after a DD halftime deficit. On fire. These are two evenly matched squads so take the points |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers +13 v. Seattle Seahawks | 17-31 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers and Seahawks have met each of the last three years – all at Carolina. Seattle won each time – but never by more than five points. Wilson threw a 23-yard touchdown pass with 47 seconds left to give the Seahawks a 13-9 win against Carolina this year. Wilson also threw a fourth quarter touchdown pass to beat the Panthers, 12-7, two years ago and the Seahawks narrowly beat Carolina, 16-12, in 2012. So in three games against the Panthers the past three seasons, the Seahawks have averaged 13.6 points. This is by far the lowest over/under total of the four playoff games. Points are going to be at a premium. So why not take them? |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens +7.5 v. New England Patriots | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For 12 of the last 14 years, the Patriots are again in the playoffs, & as has always been the case, they open at home. But although they've won 9 of those 11 on the field, they stand at 6-4-1 ATS. And they're just 3-7 ATS in playoff home games since '07, regardless the round. They sport a 33-17 point per game edge at home in '14, & are on an 8-3 ATS run in meaningful games (+129 points). Brady continues to do it: 64%, with 33 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and 4,109 passing yards. The Ravens, however, are tied with GreenBay for the most playoff road wins (10), & Flacco's 7 wins as playoff visitor are the most since '70 merger. Baltimore at 26.9 points per game in their last 13 games, & won AFC title here in '12. |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions v. Dallas Cowboys -6.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowboys have been December wonders, with 4-0 run (165-79 point edge SU, and +77 points ATS), with Romo at 75% with 12 touchdowns and only 1 interception. They have topped 30 points in 6 of their last 7 games, & Tony now has 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on the year. Throw in Murray's 1,845 rushing yards and Bryant's 16 touchdown catches, and you have quite a machine. The Lion defense is second to only Seattle, but this is another matter. The home team is 6-1 ATS in Detroit games, and the Lions are averaging just 10.7 points per game in their last 3 road games. |
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01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since Jan 6, 1991. This marks their 4th straight Wild Card placement, & so far, results haven't been good, especially for Dalton, who has tossed 6 interceptionss in 31-10, 19-13, & 27-10 losses. He has just 19 touchdowns with 17 interceptions for the season, but Cincinnati was in division chase until final week. However, the Bengals' 5 losses have been by 26, 27, 21, 21, & 10 points. Luck broke Manning's passing yard record with 4,761 yards, and that Indy offense should prove too much |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No questioning the solid edge of the home team in this year's series, with covers of 17½ & 21½ points. Roethlisberger just continues to do it with 4,952 passing yards and 32 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions. And Brown is the NFL's top receiver (1,698 yards), with his 71 & 63 yard touchdowns breaking Cincinnati's back last week. However, Bell (#2 rusher) is out with a knee injury. The Ravens came back from 4th quarter TD deficit versus the Browns. Flacco comes in with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and Forsett has 1,266 yards with NFL-best 5.4 yards per rush. Pitt has scored 29.0 points per game in their last 8 home games and you can't ignore that. |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals +7 v. Carolina Panthers | 16-27 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Have to wonder just how good the Cards could have been with a healthy Palmer. But such is the case, as they're down to 3rd-stringer Lindley (41-of-83 past 2 wks, but 4 picks). Just 12.1 ppg in their last 7 outings, but that "D" has held 12 foes to 20 pts or less. And check an 18-6-1 ATS run, as well as a 19-6 SU skein. The Panthers have turned it around, with current 4-game run, allowing 10.8 ppg, off a 6-game slide, so are only the 2nd playoff team with a losing record. Cam is only 18/12, but doing what must be done. Cards won't fold their tent. |
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01-02-15 | Oklahoma State v. Washington -6 | 30-22 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowboys, who returned just 8 starters from LY's 10-3 squad, things opened nicely. A 5-1 start, averaging a normal 37.2 ppg) with their only loss coming in a 37-31 killer to #1 FlaSt (12½ pt cover). But things then took a dramatic turn for what has yearly become one of the most feared offensive machines, not only losing their next 5 on the field, while on an 0-6-1 ATS run, but with a 139-51 pt deficit in 3-gm road run stretch. The Huskies have said good-bye to Sarkisian, but have gladly welcomed Petersen from Boise, where he led the Broncos to 8 straight bowls, & a 92-15 record. This team failed in all 5 games vs ranked squads, but won all the rest, the last 6 by an average score of 38-15. QB Miles (2,129 yds, 67%, & 16/3) has a done a decent job in replacing Price, & is not adverse to running it. And Dwayne Washington has run for 383 yds & 5 TDs in UW's last 3 games. The Huskie "D" may be the key to this contest, as it has racked up 49 sacks, & is mainly responsible for that 20-TO edge over the Cowboys. Only that amazing Baylor comeback win: 67-56 in the '11 Alamo Bowl (2-pt cover) prevents a 4-0 bowl spread run for Huskies |
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01-02-15 | UCLA -1 v. Kansas State | 40-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hundley, who is projected as a first-round NFL draft pick, enters this matchup with a 70.4 completion percentage to go with 3,019 passing yards and 21 touchdowns against five interceptions. He also has contributed 548 yards and eight TDs on the ground, although Paul Perkins (1,378 yards, seven TDs) carries the bulk of the load for the Bruins' ground attack. Still, Perkins and his teammates will need to refocus in the wake of the upset against Stanford, as he told reporters recently: "I don't get over any loss. I lost last night in a video game, I'm still mad about it. The bowl is going to be nice, but it can't make up for the opportunity that we had." |
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01-02-15 | Iowa +3.5 v. Tennessee | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units HC Kirk Ferentz is 6-5 SU in bowl games, but his teams have covered the spot in seven of the last nine. Tennessee has played 24 true freshmen, the most of any team. The WR corps has been hit hard by injuries. Foremost among those on the shelf is Marquez North, the prize catch of Butch Jones’ first recruiting class. Tennessee’s best defensive player, LB A.J. Johnson, is also out, having been suspended in mid-November. Johnson is the first player in school history with three seasons of 100-plus tackles. The OL, a problem area all season, allowed nine sacks in the last two games. |
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01-02-15 | Pittsburgh v. Houston +4 | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite the possibility the school could notch consecutive eight-win seasons, the Cougars are likely wondering what could have been as all three of their conference losses were by seven points or fewer with a chance to win or tie the game on the final possession. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. – a converted receiver – nearly sparked Houston to a win in relief in the first of those three losses and led the team to a 5-2 finish after replacing fellow sophomore John O'Korn for good on Oct. 11. Second-team All-AAC performer Kenneth Farrow led the league with six 100-yard rushing games and 12 rushing touchdowns. |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Buckeyes of Ohio State have fought their way up the rankings, after losing their 2nd game of the year to Virginia Tech, as Miller's replacement Barrett was a horrid 9-of-29. Yet, at year's end, he ranked 3rd in the nation in passing (65%, 34 touchdowns with 10 interceptions). However, he was also to be lost (in dying seconds versus Michigan), so enter Jones, who was good on 12-of-17, for 257 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, in Bucks' simply awesome 59-0 crushing of always tough Wisconsin, in the Big10 title game, holding Gordon to 76 rushing yards (2.9 yards per rush). Nobody outplayed the Bucks, who have a 48.5 point per game average since that loss to the Hokies. Saban & Meyer have been here before |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +8 v. Oregon | 20-59 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Seminoles of Florida State again enter their bowl with a perfect record, although this outfit is not in last year's class, as having to fight from behind has been a season long habit. Winston ('13 Heisman winner) at just 24touchdowns and 17 interceptions, 65%, with 3,559 yards, compared to last years 40 touchdowns with 10 inerceptions, 67%, and 4.057. And Florida State went from 2nd, 6th, 1st, & 3rd in scoring offense, total offense, scoring defense, & total defense in '13, to 27th, 41st, 30th, 51st. But they keep on winning (29 straight), & have a huge chip on their shoulders, for what they consider lack of respect. |
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01-01-15 | Minnesota +5 v. Missouri | 17-33 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden Gophers are trying to clinch their second nine-win season in 109 years. Minnesota's offense is centered around the ground game and senior running back David Cobb, who has rushed for a school-record 1,545 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, though sophomore tight end Maxx Williams (29 catches, 471 yards, seven TDs) also is an offensive weapon. Like the Tigers, the Golden Gophers' strength lies on the defensive side of the ball, and Minnesota is especially tough against the pass thanks to All-Big Ten cornerbacks Briean Boddy-Calhoun and Eric Murray, who have combined for five interceptions and 15 pass breakups. |
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01-01-15 | Michigan State +3 v. Baylor | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baylor is on pace to lead the nation in scoring and total offense for the second straight year. But Michigan State is no slouch in these departments. The Spartans scored 517 points and rank #13 in total offense, a jump of 67 spots from last year if they can hold that placement. Moreover, MSU leads the nation in time of possession and turnover margin, has committed far fewer penalties than Baylor, and boasts the superior defense. |
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01-01-15 | Wisconsin v. Auburn -7 | 34-31 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The case for Wisconsin here is that they own the better defense (notwithstanding the Ohio State debacle) and harbor an outstanding infantry led by the nation’s premier running back. Melvin Gordon, who wasn’t 100 percent healthy for Ohio State, figures to blister an Auburn “D” that allowed 1,180 rushing yards in their last six league games. Auburn lost four of those games and finished 4-7 ATS, a far cry from last year when the Tigers covered 11 of 13, including the last 10. The plusses for Auburn include a more resourceful coach and a more dynamic quarterback. Moreover, the Tigers played the stronger schedule. Auburn also experienced something of a rocky December, but the view from here is that the Tigers just may have too much speed for Wisconsin. |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech +7 v. Mississippi State | 49-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs of Georgia Tech, are now in their 18th straight bowl campaign, although in just 2 of those previous 17, has Tech reached the 10-win mark (1-1 SU & ATS bowl log). Since the arrival of Johnson in '08, Tech's rushing offense has finished 4th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 4th, & 6th in the land, with this year's 333 rushing yards per game mark ranking them 3rd, behind just Georgia Southern & Navy. They entered their ACC title game with Florida State on a 5-0 SU & ATS run (31½, 21, 30, 25, & 18½ point covers, & 1,862 rushing yards). They then extended the then 28-0 Seminoles, tying it at 28-28 in the 3rd, before eventual 37-35 loss, despite a 331-179 rushing yard edge. Thomas, of course, is the key, with 965 rushing yards to go along with 1,594 passing yards (17.9 yards per pass). The touchdown spot here seems a bit much. |
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12-31-14 | Boise State +3.5 v. Arizona | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos have a big-time running back in Jay Ajayi, who has rushed for 1,689 yards and 25 touchdowns – topping 100 yards nine times – and also has four receiving TDs. Quarterback Grant Hedrick has an impressive 70.9 completion percentage to go with 3,387 yards and 22 touchdowns but also is mistake-prone with 13 interceptions. Strong safety Darian Thompson (seven) and cornerback Donte Deayon (five) have combined for 12 of Boise State’s 20 interceptions with middle linebacker Tanner Vallejo (team-best 86 tackles) and outside linebacker Kamalei Correa (team-leading 10 sacks) also enjoying strong campaigns |
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