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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-17 | Eastern Michigan +6.5 v. Army | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What do you know? An Army favorite cover, & by 25 points in 418-rushing yard effort at Rice (4 touchdowns in 3:04 span). However, Eastern Michigan keeps right on covering, despite 43, 13, 73 rushing yards the last 3 weeks, & Roback at 5 touchdowns with 6 interceptions |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | 28-23 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wentz is in off career-best 4 touchdowns in rout of the Cards, including 3 scoring passes on 3 consecutive attempts in the 1st quarter. He was 11-for-12 for 225 yards & 3 touchdowns on 3rd down conversions. Panthers got it together, after falling behind Lions, 10-3, with 24 consecutive points, behind Cam (26-of-33 for 335 yards, & 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions and now has 8 touchdowns with 5 interceptions for the year. Rivera is 11-0 ATS vs a non-division foe off a double digit cover, & 8-1 ATS as a home favorite vs an opponent of a SU/ATS win. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Four turnovers did the Bears in against the Packers. Natives getting restless, so No. 2 overall pick, QB Trubisky will get the nod this week, as Glennon has been horrible (4 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 8 sacks, with Chicago running game sitting at #27). As far as the Vikings are concerned, Sam Bradford can't come back quick enough, as Minnesota had a 36:27-23:33 time deficit in home loss to Detroit. Their defense did sack Stafford 6 times, but they have lost running back Cook. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS as division road favorites off a SU/ATS loss, & 0-10 as road favorites off a SU favorite loss. Monday home division dog. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs +1 v. Texans | 42-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What has happened to the Texans? Obviously 57 points (vs the Titans) is a franchise record. Scored touchdowns on their first 3 possessions, as simply put, Deshaun Watson is the epitome of a "winner". In just his 3rd NFL start, he threw for 4 touchdowns, & ran for another, in becoming the first rookie to throw for four touchdowns & run for another one, since '61, when it was done by Fran Tarkenton. Last week they had a 33-9 first down, 173-86 rushing yard, & 445-195 total yard edges, in 43-point win. I still can't get image of Kansas City coming in here in the 2015 Wild Card & destroying the Texans, 30-0, out of my heads. This one is a Kansas City call. |
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10-08-17 | Panthers v. Lions -2.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Huge division win for the Lions last week, after that heartbreaking loss to the Falcons in week 3. They forced 3 more turnovers (NFL best +9 in that department) & held the Vikings scoreless in the 2nd half. For the Panthers, Cam became the 1st QB in NFL history to rush for 50 touchdowns & Stewart became the all-time franchise rushing leader in that win over New England last week. Newton was also a nice 22-for-29 in that win. The Panthers are on a 4-0 run away from home (15 & 12 point covers in that setup this year). But Caldwell is a brilliant 12-2 ATS vs a non-division opponent, that is in off a double digit non-division cover |
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10-08-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Bengals | 16-20 | Loss | -121 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a win for the Bills last week in Atlanta, despite 25-15 first down & 391-281 yard deficits. That top-ranked scoring defense took it to a Falcon team that was averaging 29 points per game, & in off a 26 first down, 428-yard effort vs the Lions. How about that 4th quarter, 19-play drive for Buffalo, which lasted 11 minutes & 20 seconds. And Bills have gone team-record 15 straight quarters without a turnover. Check Dalton last week, with 25-of-30 for 4 touchdowns vs hapless Browns (3 in the 1st half). Bengals averaging just 4.5 points per game in their first 2 home games this year. |
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10-08-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Giants | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eli was impressive with 2 touchdowns & no interceptions (now 6-4 for the year, & 70%). Chargers' Rivers started his 180th consecutive game (4th longest streak of all time, 117 behind Favre), while throwing for 2 touchdowns & 347 yards. But frustration continues, with with the Chargers who now have lost 9 straight games (first 0-4 start since '03), with 2 missed field goals at the gun costing them 2 wins this year. L.A. is 5-0 ATS as a road dog of more than 2 points, and the visitor is 22-8 ATS in Charger games. |
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10-08-17 | Jaguars +8 v. Steelers | 30-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags came here 10 years ago, with Jack DelRio, & beat the Steelers, 31-29, in the Wild Card playoff round. Another dominating performance for Bell (144 rushing yards & 2 touchdowns) & Co, in Steelers 26-9 rout of Baltimore. Pitt's 1st drive of the game ate up more than 10 minutes & pretty much set the tone for the game. Surprisingly enough, the Jags lead this series, 12-11. Brutal loss for Marrone & Co in Jacksonville loss to the Jets, as the winning touchdown pass was wiped out by a holding call. Marrone is 12-1 ATS off a straight up loss, facing an opponent off a straight up win. This is a Baltimore/Kansas City sandwich for Pittsburgh. |
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10-07-17 | Alabama -26.5 v. Texas A&M | 27-19 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alabama sure has come storming back, following that down effort vs Colorado State with 125-3 point, 64-14 first down, & 861-128 rushing yard edges. Incomprehensible. And to make matters worse for the Texas A&M, Alabama plays its best on the road. A&M: #14 rushing offense, & #15 rushing defense. But nothing seems to matter |
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10-07-17 | Virginia Tech -16.5 v. Boston College | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Hokies aren't too drained off Clemson war, should get the bacon here. Have won & covered 7-of-8, with 38.8 points per game showing. Two straight covers for Boston College, but still -89½ points ATS in last 7 home games. BC owns the 116th offense, & had the 127th run defense, before last week. None other than a Hokie call here |
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10-07-17 | SMU +7 v. Houston | 22-35 | Loss | -125 | 77 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SMU came in nicely last week, & now at 59 first downs, 1,078 yards last 2 weeks, with a 532-135 rushing yard edge. Hicks: with 14 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. Check Houston with 13-0 deficit at Temple over final 26:36. Houston now -142½ points ATS 10-of-11 games |
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10-07-17 | Air Force +7.5 v. Navy | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 74 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Navy came in for me last week with their 421-229 rushing yard edge over Tulsa (Abey: 185 yards). However, Tulsa has worst run defense, & 2nd overall defense in the nation. The Falcons were mauled at New Mexico, 56-38, with a 363-238 rushing yard deficit. However, the dog is now 10-1 ATS in Air Force games, and this has been a dog series |
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10-07-17 | Kent State v. Northern Illinois -23.5 | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Huskies cooking, despite last weeks loss to San Diego State, which saw NIU with a 429-263 yard edge, but 4-0 turnover deficit. Flashes at 4.75 points per game in lined game, with a 658-394 yard deficit in their last 2 lined games. Northern Illinois in a blowout |
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10-07-17 | Georgia -17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 45-14 | Win | 100 | 71 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Yes, I know that the Vanderbilt normally is the series play, but Georgia is riding high: 5-0 ATS (+81 points), 72-3 point edge the last 2 weeks, holding Tennessee to 7 first downs, 142 yards, & ranking 2nd, 3rd, in scoring, total defense. Vanderbilt a 714-86 rushing yard deficit in the last 2 weeks. Home field didn't help vs Alabama and it won't help here either. |
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10-07-17 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -21 | Top | 23-44 | Push | 0 | 70 h 26 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day Once the Tigers get in the groove, they are nearly unstoppable. And a 100-24 point edge over the last 2 weeks (500 passing yards & +49½ points) proves that they are there. Rank 6th & 9th in scoring & total defense. Mississippi has one of the worst rushing offenses in the land. QB Patterson (361.5 passing yards per game) bit that's not enough. |
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10-06-17 | Boise State -7 v. BYU | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We have made a habit of jumping on one of the nation's true "moneymakers" namely, the visitor whenever the Broncos of Boise State take the field. That trend currently stands at a highly profitable 18-3. No, this Bronco edition isn't up to their normal standards (15 straight bowl campaigns), which is reflected in the above spread. But neither are the Cougars of BYU, who own a 126-43 point deficit in lined games this season, with a defense that ranks 2nd-worst in the land. So we lay the touchdown, as Boise visitor rises again. |
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10-01-17 | Raiders +3 v. Broncos | 10-16 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units From a 27½ point cover, to a 13-point ATS loss. That's the Broncos over the last 2 weeks, as they routed the Cowboy, but could not handle the Bills, although they did have a 94-yard edge over Buffalo. Check QB Siemian with a 4 touchdown and 0 interceptions display vs Dallas, but no touchdowns with 2 interceptions vs Buffalo. Last year, Denver won 24-6 here, although Oakland didn't have Carr. Broncos are 1-10 ATS as division home dog off a non-division game, vs an opponent off a double digit SU loss. However, more importantly Denver is 2-13 ATS as a division home favorite vs an opponent who is off a SU loss. AFC West road dog comes in again! |
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10-01-17 | Eagles +2 v. Chargers | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 90 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What we have here, is a squad which is not only on an 0-9-1 ATS slide, but also on a 1-9 SU run. Thus, the torture continues. In last week's loss to the Chiefs, Charger QB Rivers was a horrid no touchdown with 3 interceptions, so he is now 4 touchdowns with 4 interceptions for the season. And that one pushed the visiting edge in Charger games to 21-8-2 ATS. Seems the Eagles are constantly putting up nice numbers: 193 rushing yards vs the Giants last week, for example. And the Chargers come in at #26 in containing the run. The only way to go |
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10-01-17 | Jaguars -3 v. Jets | 20-23 | Loss | -114 | 86 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jets are off the schneid, with last week's upset of the Dolphins, a 20-point cover, behind McCown's nice 18-of-23 day. And also covered their previous home game by 16½ points However, New York is still in the middle of an 8-19-1 ATS run. The Jags have played their best ball away from home, with opening day rout of Houston: 27-point cover, & last week's 44-7 win over Baltimore: 40-point cover. Bortles: had 4 touchdowns last week, & 410-186 yard edge. |
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10-01-17 | Steelers v. Ravens +3 | 26-9 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Perhaps no other rivalry compares with this one, as nothing is left on the field when they go to war. The Ravens are in off an embarrassing 44-7 loss to the Jags (in London), with a 410-186 yard deficit, in a game that was definitely a "trap". As a matter of fact, Baltimore trailed 44-0, until pushing across a touchdown in the final 3:24. The Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in this series, covering their last 3 as hosts by 17½, 13, & 9 points. Note Pittsburgh's 220-70 rushing yard deficit in its trip to Chicago. I'll take the Ravens yet again |
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV -13 | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 72 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Of course, we have to consider the success of the visitor in Vegas games: on 21-9 run. But RB Thomas & Co should have field day vs San Jose State, which has 213-48 point deficit this year (-91½ points ATS L3 games). |
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09-30-17 | Clemson -7.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 11 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day Until they lose. The Hokies have been a study in consistency, with current 7-0 ATS run. Check 85-0 point run since trailing East Carolina, along with frosh QB Jackson's 282 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Tigers now at 43.9 points per game in their L11 games, with 639 rushing yards in their last 2 games, while owning 3rd best defense |
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09-30-17 | Connecticut v. SMU -17 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 66 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SMU sure can score. Check last week's 34-7 windup in 44-21 win over Arkansas State, with 31 first downs & 580 yards (Hicks with 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions this year). The Huskies are on an 0-7 ATS run (-109 points), with a 209-72 point deficit in L7 lined games. |
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09-30-17 | Indiana v. Penn State -17.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 66 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Penn State had dropped 2-of-3 to the points, but still on an 11-2 spread run. Check Barkley in last week's heart stopping win at Iowa: 211 rushing yards (7.8 yards per rush) & a school-record 358 all-purpose yards. Penn State now at 46.4 points per game in L13 games. Indiana is improved, but owned worst run offense in the land before Georgia Southern. |
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09-30-17 | Baylor v. Kansas State -17 | Top | 20-33 | Loss | -105 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week The dog is a splendid 11-4 ATS in Baylor games, including last week's near upset of 3rd-ranked Oklahoma, despite a rushing yard deficit of 342-60, but a 463 passing yard (4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions) display from Smith. Rested Kansas State return to friendly confines of Manhattan, resolved to bounce back off 7-point effort at Vandy. |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL v. Duke +7 | 31-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A 14-0 4th quarter, including .a pick-6 in the final 4:01, got the Imps past UNC, so are still unscathed. Nicely balanced offense (227 rushing yards per game, 243 passing yards per game) has Duke at a 78-41 first down edge for the year. Miami is 6-0 ATS L6 games, with a 235-120 point edge. However the home team is 10-3 ATS in Duke games |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers -6.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bears put up 220 rushing yards vs Pittsburgh's 74 rushing yards per game defense, behind the thrusts of Howard & Cohen (138 & 78 rushing yards, respectfully), topped off by Howard's 19-yard touchdown run in OT. So, the Bears are on a 4-1-2 run at home. Packers came back from a 21-7 deficit vs the Bengals, but caught Cincinnati in the final 0:17 (Rodgers pass), & took it in OT. Seems little breathing room in the NFL, with game-after-game going to the wire. Chicago is just 3-10 ATS against the Packers, as well as 2-12 before taking on the Vikings. |
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09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State +6 | 17-7 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a turnaround for Texas, who were -80 points ATS in 2 games previous to +43½ points last two games, including that OT loss to Southern California, although they've run only on San Jose State's sieve defense. Cyclones are +122½ points ATS in 10 of their last 11 home games. And this is a home series. Take the points. |
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09-24-17 | Raiders -3 v. Redskins | 10-27 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Was it really 34 years ago, that these 2 met in Super Bowl XVIII? Raiders, 38-9. The return of Carr already paying dividends, with a pair of solid wins, covering by 13½ & 11 points. Last week, Crabtree was the recipient of all 3 of Derek's scoring tosses. He stands at a nice 5 touchdowns with no interceptions and 492 passing yards for the season, and let's not forget that he trailed only Matt Ryan in last year's NFL QB ratings. Washington has allowed 20 or more points in 21-of-23 games, and don't figure to contain this opponent. Home or away, it's the Raiders. |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 90 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The visitor is on a 46-15 ATS run in Kansas City games, while the guest is 20-8-2 ATS in Charger contests. Chiefs are on an 11-3 SU run, with their only misses coming by 2, 2, 2 points. Check Smith now at 5 touchdowns with 0 interceptions and 78%, with 229 rushing yards from Hunt (7.6 yards per rush). And note KC posting 5 touchdowns in the 4th quarter of their 2 games. Chargers are on an 0-8-1 ATS run, as well as on a tragic 1-13 SU run, while allowing more than 25 points in 12 of their last 18 games. Chiefs all the way! |
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09-24-17 | Browns v. Colts | 28-31 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First chalk or even role for Browns since they took the Niners, 24-10, as 2-point favorites on 12/13/15, & first road favorite designation since being routed by Jacksonville, 24-6 on 10/19/14. Seems foolish, in light of the fact that Cleveland now stands at 1-18 & 2-25 SU. And check allowing 8, 33, 27, 29, 30, 31, 28, 31, & 24 points in their last 9 road game. However, the Colts, despite their near upset of the Cards, are -29½ points ATS in their last 6 home games. Cleveland is 8-0 ATS in September off a pair of losses vs an opponent off a SU loss. |
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09-24-17 | Falcons v. Lions +3 | 30-26 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, if anyone figured that the Falcon Super Bowl collapse would mortally wound them, that angle hasn't materialized. In last week's showdown with the avenging Packers, who opened with a defense that held Seattle without a TD, Atlanta was in charge from the beginning, taking a 34-10 lead in the 3rd, before settling for its 34-23 final. Ryan has thrown for 573 yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. So 33+ points 12 times since last year. However, the host squad is 11-3 ATS in Detroit games, & the Lions got 29-of-41 from Stafford in their upset of Arizona |
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09-24-17 | Giants v. Eagles -6 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The host squad now sits at 13-6 ATS in games involving the Eagles, including their opening 30-17 win over the Redskins. This is Philly's only home game in its first 4 games, so note winning its first 4 home games of '16, covering by a combined 74 points ATS, & that includes such heavyweights as the Steelers, Vikings, & Falcons. Impressive, to say the least. The favorite has covered to the tune of 10-2-3 in the Giants' last 15 road games, for yet another Eagle plus. And catching New York off a Monday Night game clinches this |
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09-23-17 | Florida v. Kentucky +3 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 25 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Kentucky trailed South Carolina 6-0 on the 1st play, but immediately applied the clamps in 20-13 win (184-54 rushing yard edge), with nicely balanced offense. The Gators are doing it with mirrors. Just 14 first downs but a "Hail Mary" to beat Tenn. They've topped 20 points in only 4 of last 11 games. |
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09-23-17 | Mississippi State +4.5 v. Georgia | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week The Mississippi State scoring machine proved its worth vs Lsu's always rock solid defense: 25-13 first down and 285-133 rushing yard edges. Mississippi State's last 4 covers: 19, 44, 26½, 37 points. Ten returning defensive starters have the Georgia stop unit at #16 in land, but note their offense coming in at 85th. Can't give points in a conference battle. |
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09-23-17 | Oklahoma -27 v. Baylor | 49-41 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Difficult to imagine the Bears the recipients of more than 26 points at home. They've recently been absolute kings of the host. Stayed with Duke via 44, 73, 79 Smith TD throws, but still on 1-9 ATS run. Enter Oklahoma, with its 46.8 points per game in the L13 games. Mayfield: 10 touchdowns with 0 interceptions this year (77%). Covered last road game by 22½. |
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09-23-17 | Michigan v. Purdue +10 | 28-10 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The improved Boilers now +96 points ATS in early going, with a 468-230 rushing yard edge in the past 2 weeks (43:43-16:17 time edge last week). QB Blough: 22-of-28 vs Missouri. Michigan led Air Force just 16-13 in 3rd, before 29-13 final, 'though managing only 1 offensive TD (same vs Cincinnati 2 weeks ago). An upset. |
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09-23-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma State -13.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 43 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week Oklahoma State's Rudolph is now at 378 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and only 1 interception (5 touchdowns last week). Try an average of 41.8 points per game in Oklahoma States L24 regular season games. TCU counter with balanced attack, behind QB Hill (8 touchdowns with 2 interceptions), & 245.7 passing yards per game. Tcu covered its last road game by 18 points, but is on a 4-9 spread slide. |
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09-23-17 | Miami-OH +2 v. Central Michigan | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 68 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Killer loss for 'Hawks (a pick-6 by Cincinnati in the last 1:07). Miami-Ohio 7-3 SU lately, with losses by 2, 3, 4 points. Central Michigan allowed 31 unanswered points to wind up at Syracuse, & are 0-5 ATS at home. |
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09-22-17 | Utah -3.5 v. Arizona | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nice Arizona comeback off killer loss to Houston, with 63-16 rout of Utep. Arizona has allowed only 3 TDs the past 2 weeks, but its defense now at 39.3 points per game in their L10 lined games. Utes turned 37-16 lead over San Jose State, with 11:21 left, into 54-16 romper, & don't forget that Utah plays its best on road |
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09-21-17 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | 41-39 | Loss | -114 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I know that the Niners took the measure of the Rams here, the last 2 years, including that 28-0 blowout last year (30½ point cover). However, San Francisco burning up the scoreboard to the tune of 6 points per game so far, although finally got some rushing (Hyde: 124 yards, 8.3 yards per rush) in last week's loss to Seattle. Rams obviously improved, & are 6-1 ATS as favorites vs opponents off consecutive losses. Niners 2-13 ATS if less than .500, & taking on division opponent that is in off a SU home loss. And San Franvisco is a near-perfect 1-6 ATS on Thursdays. |
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09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lion QB Stafford tossed up a pick-6 in the first 3:36, of battle with the Cards. But that was about it as he finished with 4 touchdown passes, no more picks, & 71% (29-of-41). Trailed Arizona 10-0, but led 35-17 in 35-23 final. Giants were mauled by the Cowboys. Just 3 points, with Eli at no touchdowns with 1 interception. Detroit is 8-1 as an avenging road dog of less than 6 points. In addition, 11 of NY's last 12 home games have been decided by 6 points or less SU. So only one way to go. Take the points. |
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09-17-17 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Double revenge affair for the Packers as it went down twice to the Falcons last year, a 33-32 regular season setback, as well as a 44-21 shellacking in the NFC title game. Atlanta has had to live with that giveaway loss in the Super Bowl, so may come out smoking, although 125-64 rushing yard deficit at Chicago isn't exactly frightening, as Falcons ranked 5th in rushing production last year. Green Bay opened with 17-9 point, 26-12 first down, & 370-225 total yard edges over Seattle. Aaron over Matt in what could very well be a classic. |
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09-17-17 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Colts | 16-13 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bruce Arians returns to Indianapolis, where he filled in for Chuck Pagano for 12 games in 2012. Is there a worse team than these Colts without Luck? Well, they did manage to post 9 points (3 field goals), and 10 first downs vs the Rams, in last week's 46-9 slaughter, as Tolzien & Brissett threw for a combined 150 yards. But Indianapolis is home. Forget it. Indianapolis stands at -33 pts ATS in their last 5 home games. Four turn overs did the Cards in in loss to Lions. But not here |
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09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chiefs, & new-found explosiveness, really put it to the champion Patriots in that NFL Thursday Night opener, with a 21-0 4th-quarter edge, as QB Smith never looked better (80%, 368 yards, & 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions), including huge backbreaking plays. A definite entrant in the brass ring chase. But don't dismiss the Eagles, based on last year's quick start, poor finish season. QB Wentz has a year's experience, which is invaluable. The visitor in Kansas City games is on an incredible 46-14 spread run, with extra tight games being the rule. We take the points. |
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09-17-17 | Browns v. Ravens -7.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A year ago, the host Ravens took the Browns, to the tune of 28-7. Their defense was superb in white-washing Cincinnati, holding the Bengals just 77 rushing yards, & forcing 5 turn overs. Two Baltimore touchdowns over a 24-second span of the 2nd pretty much put that one away. Despite that one, note that the home team is 9-3 ATS in Raven games, while they're +46 points ATS in their last 5 home games. The Browns allowed 29, 30, 31, 28, 31, 28, 33, & 27 points in their road games last year. And they're scoring 13.8 points per game in L9 games |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars +3 | 37-16 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a start for both HC Marrone, & RB Fournette. Jacksonville has had the Titans' number, covering 9-of-12, & that includes 5 straight as the home team in this series. Last year it was 38-17. As noted above, the Jaguars took full advantage of that 4-0 turn over edge, for their 29-7 upset of Houston (27-point cover), with 155-93 rushing yard edge. Just 16 points for the Titans last week, but they are still averaging 25.3 points per game in their last 14 games. Tennessee is just 2-13 ATS with a less then .500 record with revenge, & off a non-division contest. Jags keep it up. |
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09-16-17 | LSU -7 v. Mississippi State | 7-37 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mississippi State Bulldogs served notice as to their authenticity, with rout of always dangerous Louisiana Tech. But just 3-6-1 ATS, but those covers have come by 19, 44, & 26½ points. But the LSU Bengals are another matter, with a smothering defense, with balanced offense behind RB Guice, QB Etling (22-of-31 this year). |
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09-16-17 | Colorado State v. Alabama -28.5 | 23-41 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tide's easy win over Fresno was by the book. Alabama has now held 25-of-32 opponents to 16 points or less. Sure, the Rams have had little trouble lighting up the scoreboard (35 points per game last year), with QB Stevens topping 300 passing yards the last 5 games. But this is a horse of a different color. Not even close! |
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09-16-17 | Tennessee +5.5 v. Florida | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No semblance of former classic stature lately. Sure, the Gators have held 16-of-26 opponents under 15 points, but note Florida topping 20 points in just 3 of last 10 games. Volunteers defense looked lost at Georgia Tech (535-148 rushing yard deficit), & miss many of last year's "skill" players. This one is going to the wire, so take the points. |
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09-16-17 | North Texas v. Iowa -21 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -120 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Mismatch of the Week The Hawkeyes don't let this type get away. QB Stanley has 8 touchdowns in his 1st 2 starts, tying Iowa State in the final 1:09, winning it in OT. North Texas has a 288-164 point deficit in their last 7 lined games. They trailed SMU 54-17 in the 4th. No brainer here! |
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09-16-17 | Baylor v. Duke -14 | Top | 20-34 | Push | 0 | 95 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week The Baylor Bears are fast approaching pre-RG3 status. A home loss to UTSA, with greater than a 100-yard deficit is simply unfathomable, on heels of allowing 48 points and 585 yards to Liberty. Duke comes in with a nicely balance 538-191 yard edge in 26-point cover vs Northwestern (41-10 in 4th). I just can't see any other outcome. |
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09-14-17 | Texans +6.5 v. Bengals | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 met in the playoffs in both '11 & '12. Talk about self destruction. They both enter this off minus 4 turnover margins on opening week. Bengal QB Dalton had it the worst, tying a career-high with 4 interceptions, along with a forced fumble. Cincinnati is on a 5-11-2 ATS run, as well as 6-11-1 SU. And check an 80-rushing yard deficit vs the Ravens. Texans: 4-0 TO deficit, to go along with a franchise record 10 sacks. Houston is 8-1 ATS in Sept off a SU/ATS loss, while Bengals are 0-5 ATS as favorites of less than 7 points off a double digit ATS loss. Texans all the way! |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +17 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 55 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day The Boise State Broncos must regroup off blowing a 31-10 lead in the 4th vs Washington State, losing in OT (had won 110 straight, with 21+ point lead in 2nd half). And QB Rypien is ailing.. The New Mexico Lobos turned a 30-5 deficit after 3 vs New Mexico State into 30-28 loss (missed 2-point try in final 1:11). The visitor is 16-3 ATS in Boise State games |
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09-11-17 | Saints +3.5 v. Vikings | 19-29 | Loss | -125 | 55 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, Adrian Peterson is back in Minneapolis, but this time as a Saint. His addition just enhances New Orleans running game, when added to the talents of RBs Ingram & Kamara. Nice, but the possibility of a bit of friction has to be considered. The Saints are a premier road team, with their current 8-1-1 ATS run as NFL travelers (only miss by just 3 points). And throw in the fact that the dog is on an 18-6-1 spread streak in Saint contests. Minnesota's running game is actually stronger than last year, as rookie RB Dalvin Cook is the real deal. Minnesota is on a 3-8 SU slide, so Saints are the play. |
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09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the 5th time in 6 years, these 2 square off on Sunday Night Football to start the season. The Giants have had the best of it of late, covering 5 straight vs the Cowboys, with Dallas just 2-6 ATS when hosting New York. The last time we saw the Cowboys, Aaron broke their hearts in last year's Divisional game. The Cowboys QB Prescott returns (NFL's 3rd-ranked passer), but will he be as effective in his sophomore year? Giant defense returns intact, although Eli may not have Odell (ankle). To wire in this one so take the points. |
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09-10-17 | Cardinals v. Lions +2.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This may come as a surprise, but Detroit has made the playoffs 2 of the last 3 seasons. So time to give Caldwell, Stafford, & teammates their due credit. Coincidentally, the Cards failed to make the preseason last year, after back-to-back post-season runs in '14 & '15. Last year, the Lions had a run, in which they held 6 straight opponents under 20 points, while the Cards were the opposite, allowing 30.8 points per game over an 8-game span, covering just 2 of those 8. The return of RB Abdullah is a huge plus for the Lions (played just 2 games in '16), & note that Detroit is 4-1 ATS as the series host. Take the points. |
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09-10-17 | Raiders +3 v. Titans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sorry, Atlanta, but no team enters this season with a larger chip on its shoulder, than do these Raiders, who lost MVP candidate, QB Derek Carr, to a broken leg in their final game. He sure can put points on the board, reaching 30+ points 8 times, & being held under 27 points in just 4 games. And how about the addition of Marshawn Lynch? Titans also on the upswing, coming from 2-14 & 3-13 campaigns, to last year's 9-7 log, with Mariota coming into his own. However, note Tennessee is 2-11 ATS hosting AFC West. |
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09-10-17 | Eagles v. Redskins +1 | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wentz set a franchise record with 379 completions last season, a total which ranked as the most by a rookie in NFL history. The 24-year-old endured significant troubles in two games versus Washington last year as he was sacked nine times. Veteran running back Darren Sproles reeled in 52 receptions in 2016 to notch his eighth consecutive season with 40-plus catches, although he had just three for 17 yards in two meetings with the Redskins. Cousins also has versatile - and oft-injured - tight end Jordan Reed as well as speedy slot receiver Jamison Crowder (career-high 67 receptions) as aerial weapons. Second-year back Rob Kelley is expected to lead a young backfield that includes Chris Thompson and rookie Samaje Perine. While Washington boasted the league's third-ranked offense last year (403.4 yards per game), the defense was often quick to yield field position by surrendering 377.9 yards per contest. Linebacker Ryan Kerrigan registered a double-digit sack total for the second time in his career with 11 in 2016, with 3.5 coming against Philadelphia. |
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09-09-17 | Minnesota +2.5 v. Oregon State | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 99 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Resurgent Beavers couldn't stay with Colorado State, & outplayed by Portland (28-18 first down & 515-389 yard deficits) winning in final 1:08. Minnesota in off 17-7 struggle with Buffalo, & that's the norm for Gophers, as dog is now 23-7-2 ATS & guest is 10-1-2 when they take field. |
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09-09-17 | Stanford +6.5 v. USC | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Game of the Week Series is full with classic outcomes so why not another on tonight? Rested Cardinals got 180 rushing yards from Love in rout of Rice (led 55-0 in 4th). USC found itself in dogfight (they were tied 21-21 in 4th) before disposing of Western Michigan, 49-31. Jones had 159 rushing yards) and Darnold again. However, the visitor is a perfect 8-0 ATS in Stanford games. |
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09-09-17 | Auburn v. Clemson -4.5 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 96 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Inter-Conference Play of the Day Star RB Pettway should return for Eagles, who needed no help in last week's 41-7 undressing of Georgia Southern, with 351-70 rushing yards and 535-78 total yard edges. Bryant for Watson last week: 16-of-22, 236 passing yards & 77 rushing yards. A 56-3 win, & 34-5 first down edge. Champs obviously still loaded. |
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09-09-17 | Marshall v. NC State -24 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -101 | 95 h 2 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week 'Herd killed us last week, with a pair of kick off returns for touchdowns and a pick-6 in 31-26 (2-point cover) win over Miami-O (25-15 first down, 429-267 yard deficits). 'Pack did everything but win at South Carolina (29-12 first downs, 504-246 yards, and 36:41-23:19 time edges), behind Finley's 415 passing yards. Give the points in a romp. |
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09-09-17 | Central Michigan v. Kansas -5.5 | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Solid production for Jay QB Bender in 1st start: 364 passing yards, 3 touchdowns. KU just 3-24 SU, but on nice 4-0 ATS run lately, covering last home game by 27 points. Chips are just 10 points from an 0-10 ATS run. |
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09-09-17 | Old Dominion -3.5 v. UMass | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 92 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just 15 first downs for Monarchs in anemic opener. But catch 'Men off pair of killer losses. UMass didn't run last year (124th) & in off 321-79 rushing yard deficit vs Charlotte. Favorite is 10-1-1 ATS in ODU games. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -9 | 42-27 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at New England minus 8, and is now between -8.5 and minus 9 depending on where you bet. Sure, the Chiefs, especially under Reid, have emerged as a premier squad, accumulating a combined record of 44-24, including 10-8 ATS as road underdogs. The latter record seems to undercut the fact that many an "expert" is of the feeling that KC is a highly profitable play in that setup. The Patriots just continue on. One lone SU win in the preseason, which means nothing. Try covering their last 8, while crushing opponents to a 16-3 ATS mark. Super Bowl winners golden in openers. |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech +3 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 153 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitsNCAAF Game of the Week Vols give you your money's worth, topping 37 points 8 times last year, while allowing more than 30 points 7 times. Replacing QB Dobbs & RB Kamara not an easy task for HC Jones. Jackets always among top rushing teams (#9 in '16), while Vols came in at 103 in containing the run |
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09-02-17 | Florida State v. Alabama -7 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Preseason's 1st & 3rd ranked teams. The 'Noles retain 10 starters from last years 21st ranked defense, so moving it against this unit quite a task for "normal" opponents. However, the 'Tide, despite losing 10 starters, simply reloads, with QB Hurts & RBs Scarbrough & Harris true elites. Florida State QB Francois first to test latest Saban stop unit |
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09-02-17 | Vanderbilt v. Middle Tennessee State +3.5 | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Would you believe that the previously doormat Commodores have gone to 4 bowls in the last 6 years? That, despite the fact that they are at just 10.9 points per game in 26 of their last 32 lined games. Raiders are led, of course, by prolific QB Stockstill (3,233 yards & 33 TDs). Topped 40 points 7 times laslt year, although 'Dore defemse is solid, I'll take home standing dog. |
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09-02-17 | Miami-OH +2 v. Marshall | 26-31 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - 'Hawks in off unbelievable season in which they lost their first 6 games, & won their last 6, before 1-point bowl defeat (13-point cover). Return 17 starters, including QB Ragland. 'Herd defense came from 36th ranked defense to 106th last year, & lost last home game by 30 points ATS. |
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09-02-17 | Ball State +7.5 v. Illinois | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 96 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Five straight losing seasons for the Illini, (allowed more than 30 points in 8-of-11 lined games last year) so any improvement will be gradual. Return only 10 starters, with Crouch QB replacement for Lunt. Cards play their best on the road , with visitor on a 12-0-1 ATS run in Ball State games. |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State +5.5 v. Colorado | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffaloes covered first 7 games last year, before final 9-4 ATS slate, marred by 41-10 & 38-8 losses in final 2 games (-56½ points ATS). Lose 8 starters from 19th ranked defense. Rams score (48 points per game L6 games last year), but gave up 43 points per game in their L4. Opened impressively last week, with 41-10 windup vs Oregon State, behind 334 Stevens passing yards. This could be a classic shootout. Take the points |
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08-26-17 | Rice +31 v. Stanford | 7-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rice has an experienced O-Line that should make for a potent running game. The offense will be rock solid, but the passing defense needs to improve. Rice allowed more YPG passing than all but six teams last year. Stanford comes in trying to replace the production of RB Christian McCaffrey, but the Cardinal could choose to air it out more this season. QB Keller Chryst is recovering from a torn ACL, but he is the most talented QB they've had since Andrew Luck. Lots of points to cover for the first game of the year. |
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08-26-17 | South Florida -21 v. San Jose State | 42-22 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units USF lost Willie Taggart, but the team replaced him with the successful Charlie Strong. Strong inherits an offense that is led by Heisman hopeful QB Quinton Flowers. The Bulls should put up a ton of points. San Jose States Projected starter QB Josh Love appeared in five games in 2016-17, completing 51.7% of his passes and throwing for only two TDs with five INTs. His play leaves a lot to be desired for an offense that features some dangerous weapons. Defensively, the Spartans are going to struggle. |
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08-26-17 | Oregon State v. Colorado State -3.5 | 27-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf, 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 94 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NewEngland has recorded multiple takeaways in 7 of its last 8 games. While the Patriots are perennial SuperBowl contenders, the Falcons certainly qualify as novices, with that single appearance in '98. So, a definite edge to the Pats. Brady & Belichick are genuine contenders, if not already crowned as the best QB & HC coach in NFL history. They continue to do it, with a multiple of talent offsetting losses due to attrition & injury (Gronkowski, for example), with what many consider "no-names". Everyone knows of their offensive prowess, but check that top-ranked scoring "D". Both "O" lines are among the best, with Coleman, Freeman, Blount, etc all quality ball toters. Top scoring "O"s vs top scoring "D"s normally goes to the defense (Pats) |
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -6 | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 53 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Patriots have been at the pinnacle all year especially in their last 13 games, as they've averaged 30.3 points per game in that baker's dozen affairs. And, as I've been saying repeatedly, Tom has been the main cog in their current 12-1 run, since his reinstatement, with 30 TD passes & only 4 interceptions. However, he was at 28/2 entering their less than impressive win over the Texans; just 47% & 2 touchdowns with 2 interceptions. However, Lewis became the 1st player in the Super Bowl era with running, receiving, & kick returning TDs. Not the best offensive display, but check holding Houston to 3 points over the final 40:49. They've already taken the measure of the Steelers, 27-16, in week #7, but Ben didn't suit up for that one. No TDs for Pitt, in its narrow 18-16 escape at KC (playoff-record 6 FGs for Boswell), and Roethlisberger is just 2 touchdowns with 3 interceptions in Steeler wins over the Dolphins & Chiefs. However, their overland game has a 350-113 yard edge in the playoffs. But running on this underappreciated Patriot defense could be another matter. |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -4 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 73 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When it comes to blitzing the scoreboard, the Falcons are without a peer this season, having topped 17 points 13 times, while averaging 36.5 points per game in their last 8 home games. They showed their worth in rout of the physical Seahawks, holding them to 2 field goals over a 48:05 stretch, in turning a 7-0 deficit into a 36-13 lead. Ryan has always been there, but this year has been special. He was 38 touchdown with only 7 interceptions, with 4,944 passing yards, before a solid 70.3%, 338 yards, & 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions vs Seattle, which marked just his 2nd playoff success, as he was previously 1-4 in post-season play. The Falcons have made it to the Super Bowl just once ('98 loss to Denver), & this makes only their 4th conference title game. These 2 met earlier, with the Falcons taking it 33-32, on Ryan's 3rd TD pass in final 0:31 (80%, 3/0), although Rodgers was his match: 74%, 4/0. But, I'll take the home field. |
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01-15-17 | Steelers +2.5 v. Chiefs | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a '93 Wild Card meeting between these 2, the Chiefs beat the Steelers 27-24 in OT here. The QBs that day were Joe Montana & Neil O'Donnell. How time flies. Pittsburgh had its way with KC in their 1st meeting, with 300 passing yards (81.5%), and 5 touchdowns with 0 interceptions from Ben, while Bell ran for 144 yards (8.0 yards per rush). Can Pitt duplicate that? Of course not, but check a 215-133 point edge in its last 8 games, & from a an 0-4 SU run, to an 8-0 windup. Note Bell's 162 rushing yards vs Miami (post-season franchise record). Chiefs enter on 10-2 SU run (2 & 2 point losses). Chiefs rank just 20th on offense, & 23rd on defense. |
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01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots -15 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Patriots have been the standard for the past sixteen years, ever since shocking the football world with their '01 Super Bowl win over the Rams, as 2-TD underdogs. Went it without Brady for 1st 4 games, but still managed a 3-1 log without him, including a 27-0 whipping of the Texans, behind 3rd-string QB Brissett, despite a 284-282 yard deficit. Since Tom's return, the Pats averaging 30 points per game, with Brady at unimaginable 28 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions. The home team is 11-4-2 ATS in Houston games, while the favorite is on a 33-15 ATS run. Texans took Oakland, thanks to 3-0 turn over edge, & no veteran Raider QB. Osweiler came up empty in first game. |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Falcons | 20-36 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In an unusual twist, all 4 Divisional Playoff contests feature squads which have already met this season, with this one seeing the Seahawks taking a 26-24 win in the final 1:57. Ryan tossed 3 of his 38 TD passes in that frustrating affair. He has been magnificent all year: 4,948 yards, 70%, & 38 touchdowns with 7 interceptions. The Falcons are averaging 36.6 points per game in their last 7 home gamess. Can he do it vs this Seattle defense, which didn't allow the Lions to run any plays in the Red Zone? Seahawks are at 29.2 points per game in 8 of their last 10 games, & in off season-high 177 rushing yards. Matt's playoff record is 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS, but did prevail vs Seattle, 30-28 in '12 Divisionals. Revenge, in an epic game. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +6.5 v. Alabama | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating:2 Units A year ago, it was Clemson at 14-0, & Alabama at 13-1. In QB Watson, Clemson owns the best player in the nation. As I wrote a year ago, he is the quintessential movable QB. And he had the 'Tide on its heels for the entire game: 405 passing yards & 4 touchdowns with 1 interception, along with another 73 rushing yards. And how about a nice 550-473 yard edge over Alaama, which got the win thanks to TDs on: 50-yard run, 53-yard pass, 51-yard pass, & 95-yard kick off return. Throw in a successful onside kick. Tigers' total domination of Ohio State: 24-9 first down, 205-88 ruchinh yarx, & 265-127 passing yard edges, along with a 13 minute time edge, is reason enough to believe that Clemson simply rises to the occasion. Take the points. |
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01-08-17 | Giants +5.5 v. Packers | 13-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here we go again. Giants' last 2 playoff trips to Green Bay resulted in upset wins & eventual Super Bowl upsets of the Patriots ('01 & '11). So NY is on a 9-1 ATS post season run, including 8-0 as an underdog. Six straight wins to wind up season for 'Pack, directly on heels of an 0-4 run. And Rodgers is a perfect 15 touchdowns with 0 interceptions during current 6-game run. Giants opened at 2-3, so a 9-2 SU & 7-3-1 ATS windup. This one will go to wire. |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -11.5 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yet another veteran post-season outfit vs a novice. For Pittsburgh, this makes it 11 times in the last 16 years, & for Miami, its first in 8 years, & 2nd in 15 seasons. Dolphins did it with a 9-2 SU windup (7-2-2 ATS). They were smoking, behind RB Ajayi & QB Tannehill. But the latter is out. So note Fish with >222 RYs 3 times in last 11 games, but |
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01-07-17 | Lions +8.5 v. Seahawks | 6-26 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We all know the story line behind this one, namely the fact that the Seahawks have won their last 9 home playoff games, while the Lions are on 0-10 SU road playoff run. Seattle is 8-4 SU, but 6-6 ATS in postseason play since '10, and is actually on an 0-4 ATS playoff run. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in Seattle games of late, while Lions have come from 6-1-1 ATS & 8-1 SU runs, to 0-4 ATS & 0-3 SU windup. Underdog call in this one. |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans -3.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a shame. Raiders make playoffs for 1st time since '02's Super Bowl loss to Tampa, only to lose their engine (Carr: 3,937 PYs, 28/6). Couldn't begin to stay with Denver LW (6 pts, 11 FDs), & Cook (for McGloin) is green. Visitor in Oakland games was 8-0 ATS, but home was 6-0-2 ATS down stretch. Texans were bombed, 30-0 by KC, here, in LY's Wild Card round (5-1 TO deficit), & are also experiencing a fluid QB situation. Home team and favorire are 10-4-2 & 32-15 ATS in Houston games. Take Houston |
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01-01-17 | Saints +8.5 v. Falcons | 32-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's see: 1, 3, 2, & 3 points. Those are the margins of 4 of the Saints' 8 losses this season. And another 5 & 6 point misses for good measure. So close, & yet so far. Clash of QB titans here, as Drew is at 35 touchdowns with 14 interceptions for 4,858 yards & 71%, while Matt is at 34 touchdowns with 7 interceptions for 4,613 yards & 69%. The undog is 17-6-1 ATS in New Orleans games, while the Saints are 7-1 ATS on the road, with their lone miss by just 3 points. The Falcons have topped 27 points eleven times this year, but Saints are 12-3 ATS off a pair of wins vs an opponent off 2+ victories. A call for classic barn burner |
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01-01-17 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | 16-17 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bucs' 5-game run extinguished with tight losses at Dallas & New Orleans, a couple of venues near impossible to sweep. But still alive, & on a 6-1 ATS run (+63 points). Check allowing only 9 points per game in their last 3 home games, while Winston is now 27 touchdowns with 17 interceptions. Panthers folding tent to torturous campaign, & now not only on a 6-9 SU run, but 8-13-1 ATS. They've been stung for 35 & 40 points in 2 of their last 3 road games. Were never in last weeks loss to the Falcons, with more than 100 yard deficit. Going with teams that need it, vs opponents who don't is hardly foolproof, but sets up here |
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01-01-17 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Browns have escaped the tag of being only 1-of-2 teams to post an 0-16 log, as their upset of the Chargers put an end to this year's 0-14 run, & 0-17 overall losing streak. Note over 100-yard deficit in that one, & also possibly losing RG3 to a concussion for this merciful windup. The Steelers had to overcome 20-10 fourth quarter deficit, taking the Ravens in the final 0:07 (2 Roethlisberger TD passes in final 7:16). Steelers are 12-1 ATS vs less than .500 division opponents off a SU home win. Note Browns allowing 29, 30, 31, 28, 31, 28, & 33 points away |
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01-01-17 | Jaguars v. Colts -4 | 20-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags snapped 9-game slide, with lopsided 38-17 win over smoking Titans, coming from 9 first downs to 25, as Bortles had his first pressureless outing of the year, with the departure of Bradley (27-of-39 for 325 yards). That broke the norm, which showed that the prior 6 Jaguar covers came by merely 1, 3, 2, 2½, ½, & 3½ points. The Colts are out of it, with setback at Oakland just their first road loss in 2 months. And they have a 50-24 point deficit in their last 2 home games. But Indy is 11-2 as division avenger, facing an opponent off a SU/ATS division win, & Pagano is 16-2 ATS off a SU loss. Jags pay price. |
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12-29-16 | South Florida -10 v. South Carolina | 46-39 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Week The Bulls own one of the most prolific offenses in the land, with QB Flowers doing it overhead & overland: first 2,000 yard passer, & 1,000 yard rusher in school history (2,551 passing yards, 61.5%, & 1,425 rushing yards, 8.1 yards per rush, & 15 TDs, to be exact. And he is more than complemented by RB Mack's 1,137 yards (7.1 yards per rush), 15 TDs. A 10-2 SU log, ranking 5th, 7th, 10th in rushing, scoring, total offense. But just a 4-4-1 ATS windup. Why? Well, try a sieve defense which ranks 90th, 118th, 83rd, & 118th in run, pass, scoring & total defense. Have allowed 38.2 points per game in their last 5 games. Thus a very juicy opportunity for opposing attacks. But can South Carolina, & their highly inept offense take advantage. Well, even if they can, up to a point, this is still a romp. |
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12-28-16 | West Virginia +3 v. Miami (Fla) | 14-31 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mounties have been a bit of an enigma, despite their first 10-win season since entering the Big12. Their only setbacks this year came vs Oklahoma State & Oklahoma, with a combined 7 turnovers, too much to overcome. The Mounties' 12th-ranked offense depends heavily on Howard, who has thrown for 3,194 yards (61%, with 26 touchdown and 10 interceptions), with RB Crawford good for 97 yards per rush (just 4 TDs). So a productive offense, if one-dimensional offense, that is uncomplemented by a defense which ranks 99th vs the pass (Kaaya). Four wins by a field goal or less for West Virginia, while only VaTech had its way with the 'Canes. The dog in West Virginia contests is on a 25-11 ATS run, and more importantly on a 10-0 ATS run in 'Neers' last 10 bowls |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest v. Temple -11.5 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Play of the Day This year marks an historic first for Temple, which had managed just a single 10-win season in its first 85 years ('79), & hadn't matched it, before last year's 10-4 mark. So back-to-back double digit win campaigns for a school that had formerly achieved that milestone just once, previously. And as far as bowl appearances go, this is their 4th in the last 8 years, but just their 6th in their history ('79 Garden State, & '34 Sugar, with Pop Warner on the sidelines). They've run off an unprecedented ELEVEN straight covers, & enter this on a 7 game SU run, with a 157-33 point edge in their last 5 games (+73½ points ATS). QB Walker is the first Temple player to reach the 10,000 yd mark for his career, while RBs Thomas & Armstead have an exact same 918 yards (13,14 TDs). But it's the defense that rules, ranking 2nd, 8th, & 3rd in passing, scoring & total defense. Probably, Owls' most impressive game was their 528-352 yard edge in 46-30 win over potent South Florida, as Bulls average 515 yards per game. |
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12-26-16 | Lions +6 v. Cowboys | 21-42 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The last time that these 2 met was in the first round of the '14 playoffs, with the controversial no pass interference call, against Dallas, after the yellow flag was thrown. Cowboys won that one, 24-20. Nice bounceback effort in win over the Bucs, for Dallas, with Elliott a career-high 159 rushing yards, with Prescott a brilliant 32-of-36 for 279 yards. But Cowboys haven't covered since before Thanksgiving (81-71 point edge last 4 games). Lions had 5-game run snapped last week, but have held 8-of-9 opponents under 21 points, and Stafford is still a solid 22 touchdown with 8 interceptions. Take the points. |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt +5.5 v. NC State | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Coah Ludwig took the reins off of whip-armed soph QB Kyle Shurmur, who passed for more than 200 yards just once in the first eight games, but did it four times in a row to close the year, including a career-best 416 in the season-ending 45-34 upset over Tennessee. That also opened the field for slashing RB Ralph Webb (1172 yards rushing), who gained better than 6 yards per catch in rousing wins over Ole Miss and the Vols. All a relief for Mason’s sturdy “D” which allowed only 22.6 points per game (very good vs. an SEC schedule), ranked first nationally in the red zone, and features projected 1st-round NFL draftee ILB Zach Cunningham (team-high 119 tackles). Having won at Chapel Hill, forcing Clemson into OT, and losing late to Florida State, North Carolina State cannot be dismissed. Boise State transfer QB Ryan Finley provided stability after the graduation of Jacoby Brissett (now NFL Pats) and had three straight 300 yard passing games in November. Punishing RB Matthew Dayes (1119 yards rushing) provides balance. And the robust front seven, led by DEs Bradley Chubb & Dorian Roseboro (who combined for 16½ sacks), ranked fifth vs. the run. That would likely have been the difference vs. pre-November Vandy. But the Dore offense I saw down the stretch, with Shurmur confident in his downfield throws, can neutralize that potential Wolfpack edge. Wins over Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss also suggest Vandy is very capable of doing the same vs. this .500 opponent. |
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3.5 v. Chiefs | 10-33 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units K.C. was the beneficiary of a dubious Gary Kubiak decision in the first meeting a month ago, as the Broncos attempted a 62-yard FG late in OT on a cold night in Denver. The resultant miss set up patient K.C. for its own winning 34-yard FG at the end. Now, the defending champion Broncos may be down (8-6, two straight losses), but they’re not yet out. And the Denver defense continues to give up points grudgingly (10, 13, 16 last three games). The low-variance Chiefs (2-8 vs. spread last 10 at home) have a knack of allowing opponents to hang around at Arrowhead. It’s hard to trust them laying the points vs. a stubborn, familiar, desperate opponent. In additoin, the visitor is 43-13 ATS in KC games. |
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12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -5.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's about time for Roethlisberger to break out, after being held to a single TD pass (1 touchdown with 3 interceptions) over the last 2 weeks. Took the Bengals 24-20, despite 20-9 halftime deficit, thanks to club record 6 field goals from Boswell (45, 49, 49, 40, 49, 30 yards). But don't forget 329 rushing yards from Bell over the last 2 weeks. Despite that narrow margin, the Steelers hold a 127-70 point edge in their last 5 games. And in this one, they have the revenge hammer. The home team is 8-1 ATS in Raven games, and Baltimore hasn't covered on the road since Sept. |
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12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech -5 v. Navy | 48-45 | Loss | -112 | 119 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Navy appeared as a team going nowhere, despite a 3-0 start vs dregs, followed by one-sided loss at Air Force (172-63 rushing yard deficit, trailing 20-0 in 4th, with QB Worth 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and minus 5 rushing yards). But it all turned around, with 46-40 upset of 6th-ranked Houston (23-point cover) sparking a 6-1 SU run, averaging 49.1 points, per game featuring back-to-back 66-31 & 75-31 wins over East Carolina and Smu (+64 points ATS), rising to #2 in rushing (342 yards per game). However, it all came apart, with the loss of brilliant optioneering QB Worth (foot), early in 34-10 loss to Temple, & totally anemic (8 first downs, 316-112 rushing yard deficit) effort in 1st loss to Army in 15 years. Take Louisian Tech. |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State -13.5 v. Idaho | 50-61 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams of Colorado State have been pure "money", covering their last seven games, with their only SU setbacks over that stretch coming by just 5 & 3 points (Boise: 23-point cover; & Air Force: 3-point cover). And check their season-ending 63-31 road rout of San Diego State, as QB Stevens threw for 4 TDs in the first half, thereby building a 42-24 edge at intermission, while Matthews & Dawkins were at 7.4 & 6.9 yards per rush (104 & 103 yards). However, even more noteworthy is the smothering of the Aztecs' overland game, holding the combo of Pumphrey & Penny to a total of 67 rushing yards (2.9 & 3.8 yards per rush). If there is a repeat of that display, then the hopeful Vandals don't stand much of a chance. Both will be sky high for this. Idaho has the home edge, but I just won't buck the Rams again. |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky -5.5 | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Western Kentucky is now at 48.5 points per game in 15-of-16 games. Its only miss? Just 10 points vs mighty Alabama. The Tigers can also post impressive scoreboard lighters, topping the 41-point barrier 5 times, albeit vs the 113th, 117th, 109th, 83rd, & 27th, scoring defenses of Kansas, Bowling Green, Smu, Southern Florida, & Houston. That win over the 20th ranked Coogs saw Memphis squander 34-17 halftime edge, falling behind 44-41 with just 1:29 left, before winning it, 48-44, in final 0:19. QB Ferguson is a sweet 3,326 passing yards (28 touchdowns with 9 interceptions), with WR Miller accounting for 845 yards & 11 TDs over his last 6 games, scoring in all 6. A shootout seems a given. But I just cannot buck Western Kentucky. |
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