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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-18 | Bears -5.5 v. Cardinals | 16-14 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals didn't cross midfield until the final minute in their 34-0 loss to the Rams, managing only 5 FDs, in that humiliating display. Bradford: 17-of-27 for 90 yards. And it only gets worse for the Cardinals, as legend Fitzgerald left the game with a hamstring injury. "They are who we thought they are, & we let 'em off the hook!". Those famous words were uttered by the late Dennis Green 12 yrs ago, after a crushing 24-23 MNF loss to eventual NFC Champ Bears. Chicago a road chalk? You betcha. |
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -6 | 27-22 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants are in a Cowboy/Saint sandwich, while the Texans are in a division sandwich. Check NY with only 35 rushing yards last week (Barkley: 28 rushing yards, 2.5 yards per rush: Jim Brown, he isn't, yet). So a pair 15 & 13-point explosions for the Giants, topping 17 points in just 2 of their last 12 games. Texans' Watson last week: 310 passing yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. NY is on a 3-16 SU run, & Houston is 7-1 ATS as a September non-division home favorite. Continues for NY |
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09-23-18 | Bengals +3 v. Panthers | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bengals already have a pair of 34-23 wins to start the season. Dalton: 4 first half TD passes vs the Ravens, to put Cincinnati up 21 early in that one, with 3 of those to always impressive AJ Green in the 1st 17 minutes (a career high for him). Newton is missing his most trusted target in years past, injured tight end Greg Olsen, and lacks ground support. Bengal's Lewis is 18-3 ATS as a dog vs the NFC. In an upset. |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pack have to be relieved with that tie vs Minnesota, although Crosby's missed 52-yarder at the buzzer would have won it in regulation. They also have to be relieved to see Rodgers out there, even with that left knee brace (281 PYs, 1/0). Washington went from Week 1-best 182 RYs, to just 65 on 22 carries vs Indy, with Smith 33-of-46 for 292 yards (no TDs, no Ints). First time since 1967, that it wasn't a sellout in Washington. Green Bay is 8-2-1 ATS vs Redskins, but Gruden is 10-3 ATS if at .500+ off a non-division game. |
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09-22-18 | Stanford -2 v. Oregon | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 97 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units One of these teams can play defense, and it isn't the 'Ducks, who've allowed 28+ points 20 times since '16. Hardly laid waste to inept San Jose State (28-point spread loss), with Herbert just 3 touchdown with 2 interceptions. Stanford running back Love still a question (knee). But Oregon defense still the main factor here. |
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09-22-18 | Mississippi State -9.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 60 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Mismatch of the Week Bulldogs keep on doing it. Now have a 394-170 point edge in RS play since last year. Fitzgerald last week: 6 touchdowns (4 rushing) and over the last 2 games, he has thrown for 397 yards and run for 266. Kentucky at 301 rushing yard per game in lined games, & posted 24½ point cover vs Florida 2 weeks back. Visitor 6-1 ATS in UK games. |
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09-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -26.5 | Top | 23-45 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week No questioning Texas A&M improvement behind QB Mond (640 passing yards L2 weeks). Nicely balanced, but note only 71 rushing yards in narrow loss to Clemson. Alabama in another stratosphere (527-155 point edge L13 games). Trailed Ole Miss 7-0; won 62-7. Tagovailoa: 20 drives so far: 14 touchdowns & a field goal. No question about this outcome. |
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09-22-18 | Clemson -16.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 92 h 4 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day No covers for either squad, with mighty Tigers 3-7 spread run. Note 595-140 yard & 27-7 first down edges over Georgia Southern. Georgian Tech on a 10-5 ATS run, but lost its last lined home game, 38-7. Check a 739-362 rushing yard edge in Jackets' last 2 contests: a 73-57 point deficit, & -23 points ATS. Tigers roar. |
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09-22-18 | Ohio v. Cincinnati -7.5 | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Surprise, surprise! Cincinnati entered this year on a 2-6 spread run. Has a 382-203 rushing yard edge vs Ucla & Miami-O, covering by 24 & 21 points. Home team is on a 6-0 ATS run in Ohio games, & Bobcats killed for 434 passing yards per game. |
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09-22-18 | Georgia -14 v. Missouri | 43-29 | Push | 0 | 88 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a team to hitch your wagon to. The 'Dawgs now on 14-3 ATS run, having held 12 teams to 14 points or less. Note Fromm L2 weeks: 25-of-30, & check GA's 810-303 rushing yard edge this year. 'Dawgs 11-1 ATS away. Missouri’s run defense hasn’t been tested yet, and the Bulldogs’ plethora of backs will grind out yardage and set up chances for an opportunistic passing game. This is just a step up in class the Tigers won’t be prepared for. |
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09-22-18 | Boston College -6.5 v. Purdue | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -113 | 89 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Eagles still smoking: +141½ points ATS L9 games & on a 10-1-1 spread run. Brown against Blough here, with the former in off TD passes of 27, 35, 29, 71, & 40 yards, & latter blistering Mizzou for 531 yards (3 touchdowns with 1 interception). Visitor still the way to go in Boiler games as they are 34-12 ATS. Lay it. |
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09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys -3 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 32 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giant rookie QB Barkley last week: 18 carries for 106 yards, with Beckham 11 catches for 111 yards in his first game since last October. Eli: 23-of-37 for 224 yards, but no touchdowns & an interception. The Giants have been held below 18 points in 9 of their last 11 games, and carrying a 3-15 SU record. The Favorite is 9-2-1 ATS in Cowboy games, so bounce backer here. |
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09-16-18 | Raiders v. Broncos -6 | 19-20 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos field a top-notch defense and now employ a serviceable quarterback in Case Keenum instead of a cadaver. Denver is 10-0 SU, 6-2-2 ATS in its opening two games played at home during the first two weeks of the season. Opponents aren’t fully conditioned yet while playing in high altitude. It’s a difficult obstacle to overcome. Since 1989, the Broncos have gone a mind-boggling 32-3 in Week 1 and Week 2 home games. The spot is made worse for the Raiders traveling after playing Monday night. |
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins -5.5 | 21-9 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Luck made his first start in over 20 months, last week vs Cincy. Luckily, he'll make another one, surviving that vicious hit he took in 1st quarter that resulted in an ejection for Williams. Indy didn't score over the final 20 minutes vs Cincy. This is the first of 2 NFC East RGs for the Colts. The Redskins had first half TD drives of 80, 73, & 92 yds vs the Cards, as ageless Adrian Peterson ran for 96 yds & a score. Alex Smith: 21-of-30, no picks, & a pair of TD tosses. 'Skins are 6-1 ATS as favs vs AFC. |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in its home openers under Tomlin, winning by an average of 13 points. The Steelers have gone 3-0 SU and ATS versus Kansas City during the past two seasons with Bell rushing for 349 yards in the last two meetings. Patrick Mahomes can gun the ball. Concerns remain, though, about his accuracy and decision-making. Then there is a vulnerable KC defense likely to be missing Eric Berry again. |
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09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eagles pulled out the "Philly Special" again to keep a 3rd quarter drive alive in opener vs the Falcons. As far as the Bucs are concerned, Jameis who? Thirty-five year old Fitzpatrick: 417 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, with 2 scoring strikes of more than 50 yards in 48-40 win over the Saints. Tampa Bay scored on 6 of its first 7 possessions. But that only serves to alert the champs, no matter which QB. |
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09-15-18 | Missouri -6 v. Purdue | 40-37 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Visitor continues to be the way to go in Purdue games. Now 34-11 ATS. Worked again last week, despite a 341-69 Purdue rushing yard edge. Tigers in off total rout of Wyoming (23-0 in 3rd), with a 33-15 first down edge, & 398 Lock passing yards, along with another 4 TD passes. I'll stick with this. |
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09-15-18 | UL-Lafayette v. Mississippi State -32.5 | 10-56 | Win | 100 | 74 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units If last week's slaughter of always dangerous Kansas State hasn't convinced any Bulldog skeptics, they're hopeless. Do-all QB Fitzgerald (another 154 passing yards &159 rushing yards), along with 211 rushing yards (12.4 yards per rush) & 2 TDs from Hill. A 604-190 rushing yard edge so far. Now Cajuns bear the brunt. |
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09-15-18 | Alabama -21 v. Ole Miss | Top | 62-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Not much more need to be said about this one concerning Alabama. They have a 465-148 point edge in it's last dozen games. Now Tagovailoa is #2 in the land in passing efficiency. Old Miss QB Last week had 448 passing yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Tide will be fully focused, which is big trouble for the Rebels. This ones a route |
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09-15-18 | South Florida -10 v. Illinois | 25-19 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Inter-Conference Play of the Day USF will certainly be looking forward to facing a more conventional offense after struggling against the triple-option of Georgia Tech in a game they still won by 11 with the help of three forced turnovers. The Bulls also forced three turnovers in last year’s game against Illinois, which helped them win handily. USF out yarded Illinois by 326 yards and held the ball for almost 17 minutes more. While they no longer have star QB Quinton Flower, the well-traveled Blake Barnett has acquitted himself well thus far. This is Barnett’s third team, following stints at Alabama and Arizona St. and he’s finally showing what he can do, completing over 69% of his passes with five TDs, while adding in 122 rushing yards and three more TDs. Expect a similar result to last year.  |
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09-15-18 | LSU +10.5 v. Auburn | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Auburn minus 10, and is now minus 10½. Sure, the War Eagles well remember last year's heartbreaking loss to the Bayous, when LSU scored the last 24 points in pulling its 27-24 upset. Thus, revenge would be sweet, & the Eagles have the horses to do it, even with loss AA RB Pettway. Had a 223-108 pt edge in a 6-game span to wind up LY's regular season, but have been outscored, 61-55 since. The Bayous? Check a current 8-0 ATS regular season run. Remember that they held Miami to only 83 rushing yards, & Brossette is at 131 rushing yards per game. Lsu, as a solid dog, has been "money" through the years. Call for yet another |
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09-15-18 | Miami-OH v. Minnesota -14 | Top | 3-26 | Win | 100 | 92 h 7 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Quite a turn around for the Gophers who were horrid favorites, before current 3-0 ATS favorite run, by a combined score of 123-45, including holding Fresno State to 13 first downs and 87 rushing yards. Miami-Ohio is on a 3-10 ATS slide, with a 359-147 rushing yard deficit this year. Don't worry about the number in this one. |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions -6.5 | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Traditionally the Lions start the season fast going 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS the past seven years in Week 1. Matthew Stafford provides the Lions a huge quarterback edge in experience and past production. Jets rookie Sam Darnold is all about potential at this stage. Josh McCown is 3-11 with 19 turnovers in his last 14 road starts. This is Matt Patricia ‘s first game as head coach. The former Patriots defensive coordinator knows the Jets having spent 14 years as an assistant coach in the AFC East. The Lions averaged 27 points at home last season, while the Jets surrendered an average of 26.5 points in their away games. The favorite is 8-1-2 ATS in Lion games, while the home team is 13-4-1 ATS in Jet games. |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers -7 | 23-24 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Before last few days, Packer QB Rodgers had the distinction of being the 3rd highest paid QB in his division. However, a new $134 million contract negates that fact. And it should, as he is the premier signal caller in the NFL. And he is a standout in this rivalry which belongs to the Pack, with current 15-5 ATS run vs the Bears, who have topped 17 pts in just 8 of their last 20 games. Nagy for Fox as HC of Chicago, which cannot but help. Bears are win less vs division rivals over the past 2 seasons. |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars -3 v. Giants | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 111 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Coughlin comes back to New York. He & Marrone have the Jags right where they want them, in a rebuild that has exceeded all expectations. After knocking off the Bills in the Wild Card, they shocked the NFL by going into Pittsburgh, & taking the Steelers in the Divisionals, before succumbing to the Pats, 24-20, in the AFC Title game, with a 374-344 yard edge. Visitor opened at 8-1 ATS in Jag games last year. Giants' prize rookie RB Barkley, is probable for this, although not 100% (ailing hamstring). |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 111 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Turnaround of Niner fortunes since the arrival of Garappolo has been special, winning & covering their last 5 games (+49 points ATS), directly on heels of 2-24 SU slide, & winding up with a combined 78-46 point edge in their final 2 games, vs the Jaguars & Rams, a couple of playoff squads. This one could easily have been slotted for Sunday Night Football, due to anticipation around Garappolo, & the Vikings' new "$84 Million Man", Kirk Cousins. Vikings are on a 10-2-1 ATS run (12-2 SU), holding 11-of-16 opponents below 18 points. San Francisco comes down to earth a bit in this. |
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09-09-18 | Bills v. Ravens -7.5 | 3-47 | Win | 102 | 49 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at minus 3, and is now minus 7.5. Nearly unprecedented NFL line move here, as the public may have finally realized that the Ravens have a score to settle here, losing out to the Bills for that final playoff spot last year. Buffalo is still seeking a game-changing QB, seemed hopeful, with their first-round drafting of Wyoming's Allen. But he has hardly impressed, serving to once again muddle that franchise position. Baltimore swept the preseason (only team to do it). A dedicated squad which has all the ingredients for another playoff run. Harbaugh, Flacco, & a Co. |
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09-08-18 | Rice v. Hawaii -17.5 | Top | 29-43 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week Just 4 punts in 2 games for the Rainbows, with McDonald at 846 passing yards and 9 touchdowns so far (6 vs Navy). Another? Hawaii is +53½ points ATS to date. Owls in off allowing 577 balanced yards hosting Houston. And no letup here. |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +6 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 34 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Michigan State minus 6½, and is now minus 6. Only 2 double-digit win seasons for the always talented 'Devils, with a combined 18-20 SU record over the past 3 seasons. Goodbye Todd Graham, & hello Herm Edwards. If last week was any indication, the Suns are in for a successful season, with this contest a true early test. Check that 34-pt cover in Arizona State's opener, pushing their current home streak to +85 points ATS in their last 5 home games. Spartans survived 6 line change contest in narrow escape (15-pt ATS miss) vs Utah State last week. Host is 14-5 ATS in Michigan State games. |
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09-08-18 | California v. BYU -3 | 21-18 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Three QBs for Bears, but only 119 passing yards. Saw a 24-3 lead over North Carolina with 6:30 left, evolve into 24-17 push, despite 4/0 turnover edge. BYU has turned it around, after last year's 0-7 SU/ATS slide. Held Arizona (last year's 3rd-ranked run offense: 313 ypg) to just 129 rushing yards. A 16½ point cover. Byu call. |
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09-08-18 | Fresno State +2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Upset of the Day Both off & running. Minnesota turned a 10-7 deficit vs New Mexico State, into a 48-10 win, with a 295 -38 rushing yard edge. Opposite of last year, when they had a 103-10 point deficit in 3 of last 4. Seven rushing touchdowns for 'Dogs in opener with Bryant taking 2 blocked field goals to the house. Fresno an 8-0 ATS underdog |
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09-08-18 | Utah -11 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 17-6 | Push | 0 | 93 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week The Utes have Washington, Washington State, & Stanford on deck, but clicking (+35 points ATS in last year's final 3 games, and opened with 608-61 yard edge vs Weber). NIU has allowed 31, 31, 36, & 33 points in last 4 games, and on 2-8 ATS run. Just 211 yards vs Iowa, and passing offense is suspect. |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Georgia minus 9 and is now minus 10.5. No question that the 'Dawgs are again a legitimate national title contender, after coming within a whisker of taking it all last season, had it not been for that miraculous OT loss to Alabama in the title game. Sure, 8 returning offensive starters is huge plus, except for the fact that 2 of those 3 missing "O" returnees are the duo RB combo of Chubb & Michel. The steady Gamecocks match the 'Dawgs with 8 "O" starters, are on a 6-1-1 ATS run, while dog is 9-3 ATS when SC takes the field. This a classic successful SEC dog play |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bucking the Tigers in their opener is study in futility (14-1 SU), especially when considering their current 7-0 ATS run. Just the opposite with Miami, who are -55½ points ATS in their last 4 games. However, whereas Miami returns a quality QB (Rosier), the Bengals go with Ohio State transfer, Burrow, & have said good-bye to stellar RB Guice. This one goes to the wire, take the points. |
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09-01-18 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Vanderbilt turnaround in '12 & '13, has dissipated, save for '16's 6 -7 mark, including a 41-17 bowl loss. A 353-211 point deficit in their last 9 games, following a 3-0 getaway. QB Shurmer returns, but so does Raider QB Stockstill. Middle Tennessee averaging 35.8 points per game in their L5 games. |
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09-01-18 | Louisiana Tech -10 v. South Alabama | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -109 | 94 h 36 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitNCAAF Blowout of the Week Quite a nice windup for the Bulldogs last year, winning their final 3 games by a combined 113-37, including a 45-point bowl cover. Helped ease the frustration of three 1-point losses. Jags were blitzed by Smith last year, & a repeat is possible. The favorite is 32-15 ATS in South Alabama games |
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09-01-18 | Appalachian State v. Penn State -23.5 | 38-45 | Loss | -106 | 89 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Penn State minus 24. The loss of awesome RB Barkley would be a minus for any squad. But the return of highly productive QB McSorley (7,184 PYs last 2 years), who is the master of the long ball, along with the entire offensive line, will simply prove too much for the upcoming Mounties, who lost their first 5 road games (spread wise) in '17. And even then, they had a 4-yr QB under center. The Nits have topped 30 points 23 times over the last 2 years, & keep it going |
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09-01-18 | Washington +2 v. Auburn | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Preseason #7 & #8 squads meet here. The Tigers were riding high, before last year's preseason, which represented a -37½ point ATS failure, but note a 369-166 point edge in their last 9 regular season games. No more RB Pettway, & just 1 returning offensive lineman. For the Huskies, 17 returning starters, including brilliant QB Browning & RB Gaskin. |
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09-01-18 | West Virginia -9.5 v. Tennessee | 40-14 | Win | 100 | 89 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units ÂLine opened a West Virginia minus 9½. The only reason that this one wasn't a rated top play for me, was that the Mountaineer defense seemed to lack the "killer instinct", failing to finish games in style. But their late season collapse, following the loss of brilliant QB Weir, has them pointing to this season for redemption. And what better opponent than these Vols, who were just 5 pts from a 2-10 season in '17. New HC Pruitt (DC from Alabama) is a plus, but he needs the players. |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming +1.5 | Top | 41-19 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 4 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week No Allen at QB for the Cowboys, but that defense (9th in scoring LY) is still a force (8 returnees), ceding 7 FDs & 135 yards in rout of New Mexico State. Washington State not the best of road favorites, with an 87-161 point deficit in their last 4 away from home. And both lines are decimated. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles +4.5 v. Patriots | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Patriot Super Bowl wins have come by 3 pts, 3 pts, 3 pts, 5 pts, & 6 pts, with the latter 2 the result of unbelievable play calling by their opponents, in the dying seconds, the first when the Seahawks decided to throw into a crowd on 2nd-&-goal from the 1-foot line in the final half minute, eschewing Marshawn Lynch (pick), & the latter, in last year's blowing of a 28-12 lead in the 4th, by the Falcons, who opted for a pair of deep drop back passes on short yardage situations, after an incredible "game-winning" catch by Julio Jones. The Pats' 2 Super Bowl losses both came vs the Giants, & their brilliant defenses, along with stunning game-winning receptions. Before the loss of franchise QB Carson Wentz, these 2 seemed headed for this meeting. Well, it has unexpectedly come to pass, with Foles under center. Belichick has again built a squad with all the right pieces: Brady, Gronkowski, Amendola, etc. No question that the Patriots are the standard. Best QB & HC in history of the league. Year-after-year. But the Pats could be 7-0 in Super Bowl appearances, but just as easily could be 0-7. The underdog stands at 8-1-1 ATS in this year's NFL Playoffs. I'm calling for the upset. Eagle "D" is the edge |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly managed just one lone TD in their upset of the onrushing Falcons, with standing a last-second defeat, via a questionable incompletion on the game's final play. That one snapped a Philly 4-game playoff losing streak, also marking the Eagle's first postseason win, while scoring less than 16 pts. And Philadelphia is also 4-0 as a playoff home dog. Foles last week: 23-of-30, which is huge. The last 8 AFC/NFC title games have been won by the home team. Site cannot be overstated. Eagles! |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -7 | 20-24 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one marks their 7th straight AFC title game, & not only that, but New England has also won 7 straight home playoff games, with their last host slip up coming in the 2012 title loss to the eventual Super Bowl champ Ravens. Last week, they outscored the hopeful Titans, 35-7 after the first quarter (35 unanswered points). Tom: 35-of-53 for 337 yards, & 3/0 (TDs to INT ratio). By the way, that marked his 10th career postseason game with at least 3 TD tosses, passing Joe Montana for the most in NFL history. He wasn't sacked by the Titans, & rarely hurried, while the Pat "D" set a franchise record with 8 sacks of Tennessee QB Mariota. Have held 11 of their last 13 opponents under 18 points, while currently on a 9-1-1 ATS run. |
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01-14-18 | Saints +5 v. Vikings | 24-29 | Push | 0 | 29 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Like Minnesota, New Orleans also changed quite a bit after the season opener as former Vikings great Adrian Peterson was jettisoned to Arizona in favor of the two-pronged attack of Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara. The potent pair became the first running back duo in league history to gain more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage and helped New Orleans lead the NFL with 4.7 yards per carry and 23 rushing touchdowns. Kamara finished second among running backs in catches with 81 during the regular season, but had just one against the Panthers last weekend. Michael Thomas more than picked up the slack, however, reeling in eight of nine targets for 131 yards in his playoff debut. The Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games and 42-20-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The surprising Jaguars certainly didn't overly impress the folks, with their nail biting win over the Bills. Just 15 FDs, with a lowly 75 PYs from a suddenly unimpressive Bortles. Jags averaged 34.5 ppg 4 games previous to 10 & 10 points in their last 2 outings. Not the best of times to be taking on the steady "D" of the Steelers, although that unit has allowed 23.8 ppg in Pitt's last 6 games. Most notable sidebar here is the Steeler revenge factor, as the Jags picked off Ben 5 times in their first meeting (Oct 8). Obviously, that won't be repeated. Return of WR Brown is key (led NFL in receiving, despite missing 3 games). Pitt 2-5 ATS as chalk of 7+ points. Dog call. |
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01-13-18 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nine straight AFC East titles for the Patriots, who just continue along with their other worldly accomplishments. Brady at yet another outstanding 32/8 (4,577 yards, 66.3%) although he did toss a pick in each of 5 straight games down the stretch. But the Pats always have the answers. Note ranking 29th on "D", but holding 10 of last 12 foes under 18 points, & on an 8-1-1 ATS run. Titans pulled miraculous upset of the Chiefs, after trailing 21-3 at the half. But note that Mariota is just 15/16, while the host has covered to the tune of 10-2-1 in Titan games, including last week's shocker. Of course, the blowout is a distinct possibility, but the 2-TD spot is pushing it a bit |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | 26-23 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs of Georgia have been special all season, featuring the running of Chubb &Â Michel (now combined 2,449 yards, when including their 326 yards & 5 TDs in that thrilling double overtime win over Oklahoma last week). QB Fromm is obviously the real deal, with a 20-of-29 showing vs the Sooners, with 2 TDs no picks: 23/5 for the season. The 'Dawgs also feature a stellar defense, ranking 12th, 2nd, 3rd, 7th, & 4th vs the run, pass, scoring, passing efficiency, & total "D". When Georgia grabbed 'Bama's defensive coordinator Kirby Smart in '16, it was a stroke of genius, as his stop unit has proven out, despite last week's less than satisfying display vs the Okiies, allowing 48 points & 531 yards. Oh, by the way, in that only other SEC vs SEC national title game, the 'Tide posted a 21-0 shutout of then 13-0 & Number One LSU. 'Dawgs are superb, but 2nd best to this "D" |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | 26-31 | Loss | -112 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The only playoff game pitting arch-rivals from the same division, &, as you can see, the Saints have gotten the better of it, not just this season, but have covered 6 straight vs the Panthers. Note the fav covering 7 of Carolina's last 9 games, while the Saints are on a 7-2 ATS run as less than DD chalks. Cam is at just 22/16 this year, while Drew just keeps on doing it: 29/10 & another 4,332 passing yards. Lay the points. |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First playoff game for the Bills since the "Music City Miracle", when Buffalo was the victim of a controversial windup loss to the Titans on Jan 8, 2000. The Jags had a combined record of 22-74 from '11-'16, before HC Marrone's arrival, who had the same job with Bills in '13 & '14. First playoff game for Bortles (3,687 yards, 21/13), but Buffalo RB McCoy is limping (ankle). Seems the spread is just a tad too much |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta won six of its last eight, with the only two losses coming against division winners Minnesota and New Orleans, but Matt Ryan had only five touchdown passes versus four interceptions in the final six games. He still has one of the league's most dangerous targets in Julio Jones, who caught 88 passes and eclipsed 1,400 yards (1,444) for the fourth straight season. The Falcons also feature the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who rushed for a combined 1,493 yards and 12 touchdowns while adding 63 receptions and four scores. Atlanta surrendered 19.7 points per game and allowed only one 100-yard rusher. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | 22-21 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The streaky Chiefs are clicking at just the right time. The SU winner has covered all 16 of KC games: runs of 5-0, to 1-6, to 4-0. Their stat edges are hardly all that impressive, although Smith has become an study in efficiency (67.5 & 6/5), with Hunt leading the NFL in rushing. And note KC ranking 2nd in all-important TO ratio. The host has covered to the tune of 11-1-1 in Tennessee tilts, & with this the Titans' 1st playoff games in 9 years, accompanied by current 14-23-1 ATS run, it's the Chiefs. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -108 | 145 h 2 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units Bowl Game of the Day This year's 'Tide hasn't been as overpowering as usual, with but one cover vs bowl opponents, which is mainly due to a "D" that has suffered an abnormal amount of injuries. But even with that, they rank 3rd, 7th, 1st, & 2nd in run, pass, scoring, & total "D". So, still a huge force. The last 2 years, we've bucked the Tigers in their semi-final games vs Oklahoma & Ohio State. Mistake & mistake, as CU (-3½, +1½) dominated both with a combined score of 68-17, and a 1,000-593 yd edge! Absolutely stunning, especially in light of the fact that both the Sooners & Buckeyes entered with identical 11-1 records. Dabo sure can coach. QB Bryant is no Watson, but Tigers more than match for anyone. Take the points |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma +2 | 54-48 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma made it this far, 2 years ago, but, as 3½ pt favorites over Clemson, in the Orange Bowl, were mauled by the Tigers, 37-17, with a 312-67 rushing yard deficit along with being outscored 21-0, in the 2nd half. Of course, that overland differential may not seem all that important, because of the Sooners' overhead proficiency. However, note that Oklahoma held a 235-222 rushing yards per game edge over the Tigers at game time. Lesson learned, as a year ago, they routed Auburn, 35-19, in the Sugar Bowl, with a 228-185 rushing yard edge over a Tiger squad that entered with a 279-125 rushing yards per game advantage. However, their main cog, of course, is Heisman winning QB Mayfield, who has 4,340 passing yards & 41/5, leading the nation in passing efficiency, completion percentage, yards per pass, & yards per completion (16.6), etc. He has 12,005 passing yards since '15. Thus, Okies are at 45.6 ppg in their last 23 games. |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida +10 v. Auburn | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 137 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knights of Central Florida have to be in possession of the most unpredictable football program in the land, as, since '04, they've experienced seasons with final records of 0-11 ('04), 10-4 ('07), 11-3 ('10), 10-4 ('12), 12-1 ('13), 0-12 ('15), & 12-0 ('17). Bowl games? Sure. Eight of them (this makes 9) since the '04 Hawaii, reaching their apex, with '13's 52-42 upset (+17) of Baylor in the Fiesta, never relinquishing the lead. Bears entered that game at 11-1, with a 53-17 ppg edge. So everything is possible. The whole football world is aware of the fact that the Knights are the only perfect FBS team, ranking 7th, 1st, & 5th in passing, scoring, & total offense. QB Milton is a gem, with 3,795 PYs, 69%, & 35/9, ranking only behind Oklahoma's Mayfield, who just was awarded the Heisman Trophy. And he has also run for 497 yards & 10 TDs. So 12-0, but a near double digit underdog vs a squad with 3 losses. Take the points. Â |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | 26-19 | Loss | -105 | 136 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michigan's offense is nothing to write home about, but return of QB Peters (concussion 38 days ago) is huge plus, as O'Korn was only a 53%, with 2 TDs & 6 picks, filling in for original #1 QB Speight, who left the team in early Oct. The Wolverines hold a 7-FD pg edge over the 'Cocks. A year ago, Michigan climbed its way out of a 20-6 halftime hole vs Florida State, taking a 30-27 lead in the final 1:57, only to allow a Francois TD pass in the last 0:36 in a 33-32 loss. Figures to be a low scoring affair, with the definite edge to the Wolverine "D", along with revenge hammer, from '12's bowl loss. Lay the points. |
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12-31-17 | Saints -5 v. Bucs | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Saints have been brilliantly steady since their 0-2 start, averaging 28.6 ppg in their last 13 games. Brees is the fastest player to reach 70,000 career passing yards (248 games: Peyton did it in 258 games). New Orleans clinched a playoff spot with that win over Atlanta, which was its biggest win in 4 years, & will take their division with another here. No, it doesn't happen too often, but this one pits the best offense in the NFL (Saints), vs its worst defense (Bucs). Tampa's Winston threw for 367 yards & a TD vs the Panthers last week, but was sacked six times, & fumbled 3 times. Saints call. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +3 v. Titans | 10-15 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags have nailed down AFC South title, despite Bortles a horrid 3 interceptions, vs the Niners, one a pick-six. That after a 3-week run without a pick the best stretch of his career. However, he did throw for 382 yards & 2 TDs. And note Jacksonville allowing a TD in their first possessions of the game, for the 1st time this year. Check it out. Five losses for the Jags, with every one of their first 4 being followed by blowout wins: 44-7, 30-9, 27-0, & 30-10. Titans have a bit of a shot at a Wild Card insertion, with a win here, coupled with losses for both the Bills & Chargers. But won't take this. |
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12-31-17 | Bengals v. Ravens -9.5 | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither of these teams is dependable. Bengals made the Seahawk faithful ecstatic with their upset over the Lions, coming from 8 FDs in blowout loss to Minnesota, to a 28-15 FD edge vs Detroit. But can they do the same for the Bills this week? Ravens will clinch with a win here, which will represent their first sweep of Cincinnati since '12, the year that they won the Super Bowl. Have now won 5-of-6, after opening at 4-5. Flacco 29-of-38 vs Colts, & 7/1 over last 4 games. Even if Baltimore loses here, they'll get one of the two Wild Card spots, if either the Bills or Titans fall. Ravens in a rare rout |
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12-31-17 | Bears v. Vikings -11.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vikings have been "money", with yet another spread streak, covering 9 of their last 10 outings, doing it both offensively, behind the leadership of Keenum, who had thrown for 3,497 yards, 67%, with 22 TD tosses & just 7 picks, as well as defensively, with a "D" that has held 10-of-13 foes below 18 points. Left a frigid Lambeau Field with its first shutout win since a 13-0 effort over the Lions on Dec 5, 1993. And it was their first blanking of the Packers since '71. The Bears field 8th best "D" in the NFL, but 30th-ranked "O", that won't dent the Vikings in this |
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12-31-17 | Packers v. Lions -7 | 11-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It seems difficult to believe that the Lions are again on the outside, looking in, playoff-wise. Especially with the season that Stafford has had, 26 TD passes & just 10 picks, along with 4,123 PYs. So, as the highest paid player in NFL history, he has exactly zero playoff wins. They are 3-4 at home this season, but note the favorite covering to the tune of 7-1-2 in Detroit's last 10 games. For the Packers, they weren't shutout in 158 games, with Rodgers, but have been blanked twice since Hundley took over starting job 8 games ago. Visitor is 7-2 ATS in Green Bay games, but Lions in a romp |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Miami-FL | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Badgers are again a "run-first" outfit, having the overland edge in every game, before crashing in their Big Ten title loss to Ohio State, with a 238-60 rushing yard deficit. But, whereas the Buckeyes rank 7th & 8th in rushing in total "D", the 'Canes come in at 43rd & 41st, respectively. Frosh Taylor is their "money" back, ranking 3rd in the nation, with 1,857 rushing yards, 6.8 yards per rush, & 13 TDs (41 yards on 16 carries in showdown loss to Ohio State). Forty-first bowl for Miami, which has lost 7 of its last 8 on the field, & 6-of-8 ATS. |
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12-30-17 | Washington +3 v. Penn State | 28-35 | Loss | -120 | 92 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units And the Washington "D" is again a rock, ranking 17th, 8th, & 10th in rushing, scoring, & total, while sitting at 3rd, 6th, & 6th this year. Just 2 losses, by 6 & 8 points, at Arizona State & Stanford. That close to a spot in the playoffs. But speaking of "close" the Nits only losses in their last 22 games have come by 3 (last year's final-second Rose Bowl loss to Usc), 1, & 3 points (this year's losses at Ohio State & Michigan State, in last 1:48; & 0:00). QB McSorley is at 3,228 yards, 65%, & 36/8, while RB Barkley has 1,729 yards rushing & receiving (19 TDs). And the Lion "D" ranks 7th in scoring. Talk about your "coin flip" decisions. I'm taking the points. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State +4 v. Memphis | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 89 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cyclones of Iowa State, of course, shocked the football world with their 38-31 upset of otherwise perfect Oklahoma, overcoming a 24-10 deficit, winning in the L 2:19. That proved no fluke, as Iowa State's 5 losses came by just 3, 10, 4, 7 & 1 pt (Kansas State at the gun), all to eventual bowl teams, with just 3 opponents cracking the 20-pt barrier in Cyclone games. Nothing exceptional, offensively, although Kempt is 67% & 13/3, while Montgomery has 1,094 rushing yards (knee: probable). Both excel in forcing the TO. Get this: Iowa State is +219.5 points ATS in 19 of its last 20 games. I'll go along with that longevity. |
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12-30-17 | Louisville -6.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -115 | 88 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game of the Day The Bulldogs have been one of our "goto" squads this year, with their 8 wins coming by an average of 21 points per game SU, & 10.2 points per game ATS, but also heed 2 of their 4 losses coming by 28, 39 points (#3 Georgia, #7 Auburn). Their offensive fireworks have overshadowed one of the finest stop units in the land (#10). They have, however, lost the services of QB Fitzgerald, who, like his predecessor, Dak Prescott, could do it all, both overhead (1,782 passing yards, 56%, 15/11), & overland (984 rushing yards, 14 TDs). And how about seeing 9th-yr HC Mullen leave for the Florida Gators. This all adds up to solid win for dedicated Cards. |
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12-29-17 | USC +8.5 v. Ohio State | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Barrett entered Ohio State's Fiesta Bowl meeting vs Clemson at 2,428 passing yards, 24/5, with 847 rushing yards, but was stymied by the Tigers: 127 passing yards, 0/2, with minus 2 rushing yards. Troy's 74th ranked "D" certainly won't duplicate that showing, so, as usual, it has to outscore the Bucks, ala last year's 52-49 last-second Rose Bowl win over Penn State, with a 17-0 4th quarter edge. QB Darnold (3,787 yards, 64%, 26/12) & RB Jones (1,486 yards, 18 TDs) are a fearsome combo. I'll grab the TD here. |
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12-29-17 | Utah State -4 v. New Mexico State | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Mexico State has five double digit losing campaigns in their previous 7 seasons, along with 9 straight years with at least 9 losses. And try only 1 cover since Sept 23rd, this season. These 2 have met 37 times as members of the Big West, Sun Belt, & WAC, the last in 12's 41-7 Utah State win (-30). Utah State has the bowl history edge. |
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12-29-17 | NC State v. Arizona State +7 | 52-31 | Loss | -130 | 69 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 'Devils are saying goodbye to HC Todd Graham, despite a pair of double digit win campaigns, & 5 bowls in his 6 years at the helm. However, he, along with his entire staff will be on the sidelines for this one. The Suns have covered 7 of their last 9 games, as QB Wilkins has thrown for 2,918 yards (64%) & 17/5, while RBs Richard & Ballage have combined for 1,634 yards. Note 297 rushing yards per game in their 4-game stretch run. However, the Arizona State run "D" ranks 83rd. But the dog is 8-3-1 ATS in Sun Devil games this year. TD spread is a bit much. |
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12-29-17 | Texas A&M v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 52-55 | Push | 0 | 120 h 39 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Week For the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest, this marks just their 12th bowl game, the first coming in their 26-14 win over South Carolina, in the '46 Gator Bowl, & the latest, in last year's Military Bowl, when, as 11-pt underdogs vs Temple, they jumped to a 31-7 lead, holding on for the 34-26 win. That one was noteworthy for 2 reasons: the fact that the Owls entered on a 10-0 ATS run; & holding Temple to minus 20 RYs, (TU at 190 RYpg at game time). For Wake, back-to-back bowl seasons, on the heels of 8 straight losing campaigns, including 3-9 records in '14 & '15. They're led by QB Wolford, who ranks 10th in passing efficiency, throwing for 2,792 yards, 64%, & a sensational 25/6. In back-to-back-to-back games vs Louisville, NoDame & Syracuse, he threw for 1,155 yds, 69%, & 10/1, leading Wake to 143Â points, Oh, in that Syracuse game, Deacs turned a 17-pt second half deficit, into a 21-point win. So not much wrong with Deacs' 27th, ranked "O", nor a spread streak that now stands at 16-6-1. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State +1 | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a job that Mike Leach has done with the Cougars of Washington State, with this marking their 3rd straight bowl season, & 4th in the last 5 years. That may not seem all that impressive, especially in these recent "bowl-happy" times. But not only had they suffered through 9 straight bowl-less campaigns, but did it in style, with a 5-32 record in '08-'10. Just as he had done at Texas Tech, annually placing the Raiders among the top aerial squads, he had replicated it at Washington State, as the Coogs have ranked 9th, 4th, 1st, 1st, 2nd passing "O" under his tutelage. As usual, Leach has one of the top QBs in the nation, as Luke Falk has tossed for an incredible 12,627 yards & 106 TDs since taking over the reins from Halliday in '15. |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -2.5 | 37-39 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Horned Frogs of TCU, just 5 winning seasons in a 31-year span ('66-'96), before the signing of Dennis Franchione in '98, followed by the acquisition of Gary Patterson in '00. Result: 15 bowl seasons in Patterson's 17 years at the helm ('14's 5-6, & '13's 4-8 campaigns), reaching double digit wins in 11 of those 17, finishing 3rd in the land with 14's 12-1 season, losing only to Baylor, in that epic 61-58 final, winding up with a 47-19 points per game edge. Right, they were "jobbed" out of the national title playoffs, proving it with a 42-3 win over Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl (423-129 yard edge). Oh, by the way, the arrival of a man named adainian Tomlinson, in '97, coincided with Tcu's upturn (4,132 RYs in '99 & '20). This is Tcu's 2nd Alamo Bowl in the last 3 years, with their previous trip resulting in the 2nd-largest comeback win in FBS history: turning a 31-0 halftime deficit vs Oregon, to take it, 47-41, in triple OT (+7). |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game of the Day The Cowboys are an annual fixture among the elites, placing 9th in our "Polls" this year. The arrival of Mike Gundy in '05, has resulted in 12 straight bowl seasons, with at least 10 wins in 5 of the past 7 years, nearly meeting for the '11 national title game, before an impossible 37-31 loss to 26½ pt underdog on week #11 shattered that dream. They have been led by brilliant QB Rudolph (4,553 yards, 65%, & 35/9), who has thrown for 13,267 yards in his career, & 84/22 the past 3 years. But he isn't the only cog in this wheel, as Hill is at 1,347 RYs (14 TDs), & WRs Washington & Ateman have combined for 2,572 receiving yards, averaging 20.6 & 19.4 yards per catch. Oklahoma State ranks 3rd in scoring, 1st in passing, & 2nd in total "O". Can Tech's 5th & 10th ranked scoring & total "D" contain 'em. No way. |
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12-28-17 | Virginia v. Navy +1.5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 97 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Middies seemed on the verge of something special, with their 5-0 start. However, 2 of the 5 were won by just 2 & 3 points (5-7 Air Force, & 5-7 Tulane), & were followed by an unexpected 1-6 windup, again with 4 of the 6 losses coming by a TD or less, & all 6 vs bowl opponents. So, another bowl for the Middies', their 6th straight, & 14th in the past 15 years, missing only with '11's 5-7 mark. This is Niumatalolo's 10th year as Navy's HC, who stands at 4-4 SU, & 5-3 ATS in holiday events, including covering his last 4 bowls, although having to live with LY's 48-45 buzzer-beating loss to La Tech in Armed Forces Bowl, despite a 300-88 RY edge. Facing (& beating) triple-optioneering Georgia Tech has to help Virginia, but I am staying with the military here. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 80 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ranking just 97th in rushing "O" (68, 42, 9 RYs vs USC, Oklahoma State, & TCU), Texas had to counter with the nation's 6th-ranked rushing "D", with DT Ford plugging the middle. QBs Ehlinger & Buechele have combined for 3,153 yds & 16 TDs. But when speaking of QBing, the Tigers own one of the premier signal callers in the land in he prolific Lock, who leads the land with 43 TD passes, the most-ever for a Mizzou QB, as well as the most-ever for any SEC QB, snapping Kentucky's Woodson's 40 in '07. The Tigers opened the lined season on an 0-5 run, along with a 210-92 pt deficit, before fattening up on the less than formidable six some of Idaho, UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vandy, & Arkansas (combined 23-48 SU), with a 308-128 pt edge (+120 pts ATS). Mizzou ranks 13th in tackles for loss, but 1st in tackles for losses allowed. Which will prevail? Call 'Horns in nail biter |
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12-27-17 | Purdue v. Arizona -3 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For Arizona, they live via the irrepressible Tate, who took the running QB label to a new level, as he leads the nation in rushing yards per carry, at a mind-boggling 10.2 yards per rush. Arizona ranks 3rd, 6th, & 12th in rushing, scoring, & total offense, but is among the worst teams in the land in containment (88th, 122nd, 105th, 117th in run, pass, scoring & total "D"). The last team with the ball may take it, so I'll go with the better "O" |
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12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa -2.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Hawkeyes of Iowa, this one makes it their 31st bowl appearance. Over the past 3 seasons, they've gone a combined 27-12. This year, they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, finishing 109th in the land, despite their shocking 55-24 upset of Ohio State, with 243 rushing yards & 246 passing yards. This is Ferentz's 15th bowl as HC of the Hawkeyes, with a 6-8 SU record, as well as an 8-6 ATS mark. However, QB Stanley is the real deal, at 2,338 yards & 25 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions, with Wadley at 1,021 rushing yards. Should be a brutal contest. |
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12-27-17 | Southern Miss +17 v. Florida State | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No, the Gods haven't been good to the Seminoles of Florida State this season, as they entered the year in the 2nd or 3rd spot in the preseason polls. But, it wasn't to be, as their season ended with a thud, when they lost their premier QB Francois (for the season) in their suicidal opener vs none other than Alabama. Certainly not the smartest of inaugurals. Thus, even with the return of 16 starters, his loss has been impossible to overcome, even though his replacement, Blackman, has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards (1,997, 57%, 15/11), with RBs Akers & Patrick a combined 1,670 yards. Check an 0-8-1 spread record, along with a 3-6 SU mark, before nailing necessary wins (2 covers), in routs of the mighty triad of Delaware, Florida (4-7), & Monroe (4-8). |
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12-26-17 | Kansas State -3 v. UCLA | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Wildcats, this makes it 8 straight bowl years (2-5 both SU & ATS), winding up this season on a 4-1 SU run, including a pair of 4th-quarter double digit comeback wins over bowl-bound Texas Tech & Iowa State, marking the only time in school history to win 2 games in a season, when trailing by double digits in the 4th. So 19 bowls in Snyder's 26 years as Wildcat HC. Not one of his better outfits, ranking just 95th & 96th in total "O" & "D". Head-scratching, to be sure, just as the fact that the dog is on an 18-3-1 ATS run in Kansas State tilts. But check the Bruins are going it with an interim head coach and UCLA is currently on a 17-33 ATS run, & just 13 points from a 4-23 spread slide. |
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12-26-17 | Northern Illinois +5.5 v. Duke | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating:Â 2 Units For the Huskies, this makes it 9 bowls in 10 years, missing only in last year's 5-7 mark, after opening at 0-4. This year's 8-4 record includes 48-17 & 63-17 outbursts vs Bowling Green & Ball State. However, it is NIU's "D" that is front-&-center, ranking 18th in total, & 10th vs the run, leading the nation in tackles for loss, & is 2nd in sacks. Duke counters with QB Jones' 2,439 yards (56%, but just 12/11), & a combined 1,403 rushing yards from Wilson & Brown. Check finals of 48-34, 52-48, 36-31, & 44-41 (OT) in Duke's recent bowl run. Should be wild. |
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12-26-17 | Utah v. West Virginia +7 | 30-14 | Loss | -113 | 50 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Grier sidelined, redshirt sophomore Chris Chugunov started the Mountaineers’ regular-season finale against Oklahoma and went 10-of-20 for 137 yards in the 59-31 road loss, but the team made strong use of the Wildcat formation, featuring reserve tailback Kennedy McKoy who ran for a career-high 137 yards and three TDs in the contest. White is the top offensive play-maker after combining for 212 receptions, 2,988 yards and 30 receiving TDs. Defensively, senior linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton led the way with 102 total tackles, including 13 for losses, but the Mountaineers struggled for the most part, allowing 31.6 points (92nd nationally) and 452.5 yards (110th) per game. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -10 | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last of our 3 Super Bowl rematches (SB XV: 27-10 Raiders). If you discount the Donovan McNabb era, the Eagles have won exactly two playoff games since the Raiders destroyed the birds. For Philly, Foles is doing it again, clicking on 24-of-38 for 237 yards & 4 TDs (no picks). Have to hand it to this franchise for getting him back, but that "D" has allowed 29.3 points per game the last 3 weeks. Raiders are on a 1-7-2 ATS run on the road, & have topped 17 points in only 4 of their last 12 games. Eagles soar again. |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +9 | 34-6 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Steelers in off sickening loss to the Patriots, on a TD reversal in the closing seconds. Now they know, in all likelihood, that they'll have to travel to New England to get to the Super Bowl. Not only that, but the status of Brown's torn calf is beyond crucial. Another fine performance from Ben: 22-of-30 for 281 yards & 2 TDs, but killed by that end zone pick in the closing seconds. Texans have a 192-104 pt deficit since Watson went out, & Savage is doubtful. Pitt is 1-6 ATS as a chalk of more than 7 points this season |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, it didn't take the Bulldogs of Fresno State long to right their ship, after last season's 1-11 debacle (0-10 windup), by hiring Jeff Tedford, who served as OC for Washington. This is not his first rodeo, either. He was HC of California from '02-'12, taking the Bears to bowls in 7 of this first 8 years, after inheriting a team fresh off a 1-10 campaign. Such a turnaround came with being named as Pac10 Coach of the Year in both '02, & '04. He has again worked his magic, this time by turning last year's 1-11 Fresno squad, into the above 9-4 log |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units He's back. The Cowboys have turned it all around, with 3 straight wins (+42½ pts ATS), following their futility in their first 3 games without Elliott (7, 9, 6 pts), thereby keeping their postseason dreams alive & well. Remember, they covered their last HG by 24 pts. Seahawks are in off their worst loss in Pete Carroll's eight seasons. Completely dominated from the opening whistle vs the Rams. Wilson: just 14-of-30, with 7 sacks. The 'Boys are 8-1 ATS off a pair of wins vs a non-division opponent. It's Dallas. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | 33-44 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags in off their 7th win in last 8 outings, thereby clinching a post-season spot for the first time since 2007. They were an NFL-worst 22-74 over the previous 6 years. Check Bortles with a season-high 326 yards & the best QB rating (143.6) of his career, in rout of the Texans. He is 7/0 over the last 3 years. And note the Jaguar "D" holding 8 foes to 10 points or less. Three straight wins for the Niners, but just 1 TD (6 FGs) in win over the Titans. Garoppolo a career-high 381 yards. But going gets tougher |
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12-24-17 | Lions -3 v. Bengals | 17-26 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, that's it for Marvin Lewis. He never won a playoff game, as this year's Cincy squad is sinking fast, with 33-7, 34-7 losses in their last 2 games. Dalton last week: 11-of-22 for 113 yards. Bengals didn't cross midfield vs Minny until the final 3 minutes of the 3rd. Lions need 'em all to have a shot at landing a Wild Card slot. No TOs for Stafford in win over the Bears He has thrown for 3,920 yards, along with 25 TDs, & only 9 picks, & the chalk is on a 7-0-2 ATS run in Detroit games. No other way here. |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -10 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's see. A division sandwich for both teams (Buffalo sandwich for Dolphins). The Chiefs have shaken their previous trend in which the visitor was king, as the host is now on a 7-1 ATS run in KC games. They seem to have recaptured their early season brilliance (5-0 start), & have now taken control of the AFC West with LW's convincing rout of the red hot Chargers. Smith: another 2/0, so now at superb 25/5, while Hunt chipped in with 155 yards. Miami has a 144-54 pt deficit in its last 4 RGs. It continues. |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State v. Toledo -7.5 | 34-0 | Loss | -105 | 146 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just 2 setbacks for Toledo, who are led by a triad of quality performers: QB Woodside, who has 3,758 passing yards, 65%, & 28/5; RB Swanson: 1,319 yards, & 14 TDs; WR Johnson: 1,257 yards, & 13 TDs. At season's end Toledo was smoking. Recall leading Akron 38-0, in the dying seconds of the 3rd, in Rockets' 45-28 win in the MAC title game. Toledo is at 39.4 points per game in 5 of its 6 bowl games since '10. Have to see revenge playing an important factor in this. |
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12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | 42-35 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Competitive is Army's middle name, with 2 of their 3 setbacks coming by just 4 & 3 points, although 5 of their wins came by only 4, 1, 5, 5, & 1 pt. In this one, their overland game will be put to the supreme test as San Diego State ranks 8th the land in containing the run, as well as 16th & 11th in scoring & total defense. They've out rushed their last 4 opponents, 1,442-182, including holding New Mexico's 250 rushing yards per game offense to 82 yards. And, when they are on the attack, they own the nation's top rusher, with Penny's 2,027 yards (19 TDs), on heels of last year's 1,018 yards, as 2nd banana to Pumphrey, who led the land in '16, with 2,133 rushing yards. Thus, military schools do not have a monopoly on the running game, especially vs the likes of this Aztec squad. And check QB Chapman at 1,848 passing yards. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida -2.5 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 139 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game of the Week There has only bee two teams that have outplayed every one of their opponents this season, the mighty Sooners of Oklahoma, & the unnoticed Bulls of South Florida. So, moving the ball has hardly been a problem, especially since the prolific Quinton Flowers took over the leadership role in '15. He has amassed 11,201 yards the past 3 years, with USF compiling a 28-9 SU record, while gracing the Miami Beach & Birmingham Bowls, prior to this year's defense of the latter bowl. His worth is nearly impossible to overstate. Just check USF's season finale game with a perfect Central Florida, where he piled up 503 passing yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception along with 102 rushing yards, tying it on an 83-yard TD pass in the final 1:41, only to lose on a TD return of the ensuing KO. This marks the Bulls' 3rd straight bowl game, & 9th in the last 13 years. The line on this one is a bit perplexing, as the balanced attack of the Bulls seems to more than counter Tech's one-dimensional offense |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 143 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last year, the 'Boys (+10) staged a comeback in the Poinsettia Bowl, vs Byu, turning a 24-7 deficit with 7:40 left, into a 24-21 loss, thanks to a pair of late TD passes from Allen. They entered that contest with an 8-4 SU record, while on a 7-2 ATS run. Similarities galore, as they stand at an exact same 8-4 SU, while currently on a 7-2 ATS streak, losing SU, as 19-pt favorites, to 2-11 San Jose. They live via the turnover (+19: 2nd best in the land), on the arm of Allen. Site favors Wyoming, which has done itself proud the past 2 years. |
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12-22-17 | UAB +8 v. Ohio | 6-41 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In '14, the school higher-ups crunched the numbers, deciding that football was just too expensive to maintain at UAB. Thankfully, they've done an about turn, while miraculously, making it to a bowl in their first year back. No, the Blazers haven't turned into world beaters, but have, unbelievably, made it to a bowl. Many experts pegged them as doormats, but they've posted 8 wins, comfortably gaining bowl eligibility in just their 9th game. Their schedule is rife with nail biters, with wins of 7, 1, 2, & 5 points, along with losses of 4 & 1 pt. Junior QB Erdely is their trigger, throwing for 2,077 yards, 62%, & 16/4, while running for 289 yards. And RB Brown: 1,292 yards & 10 TDs. Lean to the Dog in this one. |
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12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International +7.5 | 28-3 | Loss | -125 | 123 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Panthers of Florida International, this marks just their 3rd bowl in school history, while their 8-4 record matches their best ever. Butch Davis took over the reins following 5 straight losing years, on the heels of back-to-back bowls in '10 & '11. Much like the Owls, FIU topped the 17-pt mark in just 1 of its first 4 games, before turning it around, averaging 39.8 ppg in 5 of its final 6 outings, behind QB McGough: 2,791 yds, 65%, 17/8. Note that the dog has covered 8 of FIU's last 10 games. We'll try it once more. |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech v. SMU -4 | 51-10 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mustangs of SMU, is in their first bowl under HC Morris, as their steady rise continues on schedule: 2-10, to 5-7, to 7-5. Led by QB Hicks, they are one of only two teams in the nation with a 3,000 yard passer, a 1,000 yard rusher (Jones), & two 1,000 yard receivers (Sutton & Quinn). This offense has now topped 36 points in 14 of its last 17 games. |
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12-19-17 | Akron v. Florida Atlantic -22.5 | 3-50 | Win | 100 | 97 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This season, has seen Akron with a 6-2 regular season SU windup, thus making it into the MAC title game, despite ranking a lowly 118th in both rushing & total "O". Defensively? Try 97th. Not the case with the Owls, & head coach Lane Kiffin, who covered 7-of-9 down the stretch, while averaging 46.3 ppg in their last 9 outings, including that 41-17 rout of NoTexas in the Conference USA title game (12½ pt cover), with a 281-81 RY edge. Thus, FAU ranks 8th, 6th, & 13th in scoring, rushing, & total "O". They are led by the indomitable Singletary (CUSA's MVP) who has run for 1,976 yds & 29 TDs, while breaking 7 Owl single-season marks. Remember, the Zips trailed Toledo, 38-0, in the final seconds of the 3rd in their MAC title match with Toledo, before the Rockets called off the dogs. Whatever FAU wants this to be |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys -3 v. Raiders | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these squads are fighting for their playoff lives. Dak was splendid in the 'Boys' rout of the Giants. He was 20-of-30, for 332 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions and Dallas is a game back in Wild Card chase. Ditto the Raiders, who are a game behind both the Chiefs & Chargers in the AFC West. Oakland was held scoreless until the final 9 minutes of their 26-15 loss to KC (140-yard deficit). |
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12-17-17 | Titans +3 v. 49ers | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 2nd of 3 straight out of conference games for both of these squads. Titans in off holding the Cards without a TD, but still losing. Now find themselves looking up at the Jags in the NFC South, with Mariota tossing more picks than TDs this year (10/14). He was 6-of-16 for 60 yards & 2 picks in the 2nd half of that one. It wasn't all bad for the Titans, as their "D" had 8 sacks vs the Cards. This is a must win for the Titans |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks -1 | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one has huge implications on the NFL West. Last week, after a horrific 3 quarters, Seattle's Wilson again showed his magic in the 4th, with TD tosses of 61 & 74 yards. However, it wasn't enough to stop the up-&-coming Jags, as his 3 picks eventually did them in. Only the 3rd time in his career that has happened. Last week, the Rams put quite a beating on Wentz, in that loss to Philly, even before they knocked him out of the game. Goff: only 199 yards |
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12-17-17 | Bengals v. Vikings -12 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bengals face their former defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, here. Dalton is off a horrible 141 passing yards (1/1), in their embarrassing loss to the 3-win Bears, being more than doubled in first downs & total yards. Cincinnati's worst home drubbing since a 34-3 loss to Baltimore in '08. Minnesota's 8-game winning streak is history, although the Vikings did come back from an 11-point 4th quarter deficit. Minnesota defense has held 8 of its last 11 foes under 18 points. |
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12-17-17 | Ravens -6.5 v. Browns | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, we all know that the Ravens are normally a defensive force (7th in the NFL), but they've sure opened up that offense over the past couple of months, with a 189-98 point edge in their last 6 games. So 38 points & 414 yards vs the Steelers' 3rd-ranked offense, in last week's 39-38 crusher. Can things get any worse for the Browns, who blew a 2-TD 2nd half lead over the Packers, losing in OT? Kizer: 3 TD passes, but a killer OT pick. Cleveland is 3-8 ATS as a home dog of more than 3½ points, & is averaging 11.6 points per game in their last 5 home games |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a game for a national TV audience. The top spot in the NFL West is on the line. Total domination for the red hot Chargers, in their rout of the 'Skins: 24-9 first downs, 174-65 rushing yards, & 488-201 total yard edges. So 4 straight wins for the Bolts, with a 151-53 point edge. Rivers: another 319 passing yards (2 TDs: now 23/7), passing Warren Moon for 9th place on the all-time NFL passing yard list. KC in off snapping 4-game slide. In their last 15 AFC West games, the Chiefs have won 14. But an L.A. call here. |
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