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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-16 | Bills +1 v. Rams | 30-19 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, try a couple of squads which have absolutely excelled in the underdog role, of late. As the underdog is on a 7-0-1 ATS run in Ram games. Check 5 takeaways, a 65-yard TD pass, and a 47-yard punt return in their 17-13 upset of the Cards. Likewise, the Bills, who have quickly turned their season around with upsets of both Arizona and New England (19 and 19½ point covers) with a combined 6 Take Aways in those 2. Taylor: steady 27-of-39 versus Pats. Rams are 1-6 ATS off a SU underdog win versus an opponent off a SU/ATS win. |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No question as to where I go in this one. The Raiders have been a pleasant surprise, with 3-1 start, and in off 4-TD passes from Carr (3 to Crabtree), taking the Ravens in the final 2:12. Just the opposite for the snakebit Chargers, whose 3 losses have all come late, and that includes last weeks 35-34 loss to the Saints in the last 1:57, with 2 fumbles leading to New Orleans TDs in the final 4:50. Oakland is 4-17 ATS as a home favorite versus an opponent with less than a .500 record who is off a SU loss. The visitor is 10-0 ATS in Raider games, while the road team is 13-3 ATS in San Diego contests. Simply put: the dog in this series is 13-1 ATS. |
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10-09-16 | Texans v. Vikings -6.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No Watts for Texans (back surgery) after starting all 83 games since his draft in 2011. But Houston took the Titans on a 67-yard Fuller punt return in the final 0:56. So an early 2-game lead in the AFC South. Game site seems the key, as the host has won and covered all 4 of Texan outings. So a trip to Minnesota may not be the best of setups, as the favorite is on a 25-12 ATS run in Houston games. Vikings again fully focused with bye next week, and are on a 25-5 ATS run, and 24-5 ATS versus non-division opponents. Minnesota is also 11-2 ATS vs an opponent off a SU win. |
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10-09-16 | Eagles -3 v. Lions | 23-24 | Loss | -118 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rested Eagles have been something else, with perfect 3-0 start (+68 points ATS), covering their last road game by 18 points. And try a 34-7 lambasting of the Steelers, with a 425-251 yard edge. Wentz has 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and hitting 65% of his passes. Three straight losses for Lions, and in off losing to formerly winless Bears, with 2 late Stafford Interceptions deep in Chicago territory. Detroit is 1-10 ATS as an underdog of less than 10 points versus an opponent with revenge, while Philly owns a 92-27 point edge in the early going. |
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10-08-16 | California -12.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -118 | 96 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Game of the Week Bears sure didn't lose much with Webb for Goff, as he now has 5 straight 4-TD games, and at 429 passing yards per game with 22 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. Last year, Cal posted 36 first downs and 760 yards in 30-point win over the Beavers. So, with Oregon Stat now allowing 40 points per game in its L13 lined games, and on 5-18 ATS run, I'll call for a repeat. |
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10-08-16 | Florida State +3 v. Miami (Fla) | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 95 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida State rolled by 20, with 200-yard edge at South Florida following their 1st loss (Louisville), but can they duplicate that feat, after such as crushing last-play loss versus North Carolina, after taking lead in last 0:23? Well, Miami took Georgia Tech thanks to 2 fumble return touchdowns (267-114 rushing yard deficit). |
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10-08-16 | Washington -8 v. Oregon | Top | 70-21 | Win | 100 | 94 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day Huge line move following last weeks results, which saw Washington hold 214-29 rushing yard edge over Stanford (0.9 yards per rush). Multiple Browning TD passes in every game. A 187-61 point edge so far. Three straight OU losses ('07). Seeking a defense (46 points per game in Pac12), and -46 points ATS in L3 home game. |
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10-08-16 | Bowling Green v. Ohio -11.5 | 24-30 | Loss | -106 | 89 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Less than 200 yards for Ohio U in win over Miami (4 turnovers), covering on endzone fumble recovery in last 1:30. But could do it up right, as Bowling Green a 154-13 point deficit in its 2 road games, and 281-86 point deficit L5 lined games |
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10-08-16 | Maryland -1 v. Penn State | 14-38 | Loss | -108 | 87 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last week 390-14 Terp rushing yard edge (8.7 yards per rush) in 50-7 rout of Purdue, jumping to 36-0 lead. Johnson superb 11.9 yards per rush for the year. And note a 241-48 rushing yard edge over Lions last year. Penn State ranks 118th in rushing offense, but 335 McSorley passing yards in comeback OT win over Minny. I am calling for an Upset! |
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10-08-16 | Oklahoma v. Texas +10.5 | Top | 45-40 | Win | 100 | 87 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week Can be no questioning the vast improvement of Long Horns, who are now at 261 rushing yards, 256 passing yards per game (329 rushing yards, 239 passing yards at Oklahoma State (killed by the big play). Texas is +64½ points ATS L3 versus Oklahoma, who shook demons with 1st cover in last weeks 52-46 win at Tcu. Still -68½ points ATS L5 games. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Embarrassing 34-3 loss to Philly for Steelers, with 25-15 first down and 426-25 yard deficits. Ben: with no touchdowns and 1 interceptions, after entering with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, while Pittsburgh came from a 136-51 rushing yards per game edge to a 125-29 rushing yard deficit. Bell is expected back, after serving his suspension, which can only be a help, and the Steelers are still +45½ points ATS in their last 7 games, including last weeks 37½ point failure. Visitor is on a 35-11 ATS run in Chief tilts, but it was 35-9, before last 2 weeks. Pitt is 13-0 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off a SU win. Bounceback |
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10-02-16 | Rams v. Cardinals -7.5 | 17-13 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, I know that the Rams have been decent plays in division matchups, but not in this case. They finally put a touchdown on the board in last weeks 37-32 upset of Tampa (took them nearly 10 quarters to punch that score across, despite 30-18 first down, and 472-320 total yard deficits. Cards in off a 5 turnover display in losing badly to the Bills, 33-18 (208-88 rushing yard shortage), and hardly a first down with only 2 yards in their first 5 possessions, so should be in same place as in their 1st rebound setup (40-7 win over the Bucs). I am calling for a repeat |
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10-02-16 | Broncos -3 v. Bucs | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 93 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit It seems rare when the defending champions are on mission, but that is exactly what is happening with these Broncos, who have carried over from their Super Bowl upset of the Panthers, with a perfect SU/ATS record, covering by 4, 7, and 15 points. Most pleasant surprise is the play of rookie QB Siemian: 4 touchdowns in his first road start, versus that Cincinnati defense, no less. Bucs are a comer, to be sure, with 31 and 32 point games, so far, but were routed, 40-7, by their only true elite opponent, Arizona. In adition, the visitor is a solid 14-4 ATS in Denver game and Broncos are 8-1 ATS off SU/ATS win versus |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks v. Jets +2.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hard to believe that Pete Carroll once coached the Jets. Seattle returns to site of its Super Bowl win, and finally got the offense moving, in 37-18 win over San Francisco, with a 418-254 yard edge, but note that QB Wilson didn't play the final 1½ quarters of that one. The Jets gave away the store in loss to Kansas City, with no less than 8 turnovers, their most since a 1976 loss to the Patriots, with QB Fitzpatrick doing his part, namely 6 picks. So a 24-3 loss to the Chiefs, but check allowing only 1 offensive touchdown. The embarrassed Jets are 9-1 ATS as underdogs of gerater than 1 point off scoring less than 8 points |
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10-01-16 | Louisville -2 v. Clemson | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day You won't find another game this season that means so much. Louisville's mercurial QB Jackson: 1,451 yards, 17 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks. Plus a 254-90 point edge this year (+84 points ATS). Clemson proved worth with 82-52 play, 318 yard edge in rout of Georgia Tech. Watson: 304 passing yards. However, I am sticking with the Cards in this one. |
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10-01-16 | Texas A&M -17.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -106 | 70 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week All South Carolina games are close to spot, but they had just 91 rushing yards versus Kentucky's 254 rushing yard per game defense last week (#124, #127, #124 in run scoring, total offense). Texas A&M comes into this one cooking: 29-9 and 38-7 windups versus Auburn & Arkansas (Knight: 407 yards last week). |
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10-01-16 | Akron -7 v. Kent State | 31-27 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Akron's run defense came from 9 yards to 307 in loss to Appalacian State, but note covering last road game by 54½ points, with Woodson nation's #9 QB. Kent a 265-66 point deficit in its L9 lined games, ranking them 126th in total offense. Akron is the play. |
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10-01-16 | Tennessee -3 v. Georgia | 34-31 | Push | 0 | 69 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First road game for Tennessee, who turned 21-0 deficit versus Florida, into a 38-21 lead (38-28 final), behind 4 Dobbs touchdown passes in a 10:41 span. And note that he burned Georgia for 430 yards and 5 touchdowns in last years UT win. Georgia trailed Ole Miss 45-0 in 3rd, and now have a 262-235 point deficit in their last 12 games. Lay the points |
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10-01-16 | Minnesota +3 v. Penn State | 26-29 | Push | 0 | 69 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota are one lousy favorite, but a dependable underdog (underdog on a 15-6 ATS in Minnesota games). Solid run offense and defense, and Leidner 16-of-20 last week. Penn State in off 324-yard deficit at Michigan. They can't run (#122) and they are favored here? |
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10-01-16 | Miami (Fla) -7 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 66 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Conference Game of the Week Yellow Jackets came from 511 yards versus Vanderbilt to just 124 versus Clemson, with QB Thomas minus 25 yards on 10 rushes. Now on 2-9-1 ATS slide. The visitor is 11-4-1 ATS in Miami contests, and with them rested off 45-10 point, 549-241 yard edge at Appalacian State QB Kaaya 21-of-27 and 368 yards in that one. |
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09-30-16 | Stanford +3.5 v. Washington | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Friday Night Lights There is no questioning the always potent offense of Washington, who not only rank as the 10th-best scoring outfit, but 16th best in scoring denfense (a 46-15 points per game edge). So how can Washington rate as just a small favorite at home, versus a Stanford squad, which, although unbeaten, is in off a grueling game, while hardly posting any of their normal eye-popping runaways? Well, in my opinion, anytime Standord enters as an underdog, I will take them! |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7.5 | 7-22 | Win | 102 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, it's Thursday Night and I don't think that anyone thought we'd be looking at a pair of 1-2 squads. Cincinnati yet to cover, off of last years 12-3-2 spread log, but still +56 points ATS in last 19 games. And Bengals enter off a 143-52 rushing yard edge over mighty Broncos. The Dolphins avoided an 0-3 start when Cleveland missed final play 46-yard field goal, and check 7 turnovers in the past 2 weeks. Tannehill at 892 passing yard, but running game a question. Miami is on 6-16 and 4-9 ATS runs, with a 313-234 point deficit in their last 12 games. Defensively, the Bengals rank 15th in the early going, while the Dolphins rank 30th. Their escape versus Cleveland last week is the determinant in my mind. |
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09-25-16 | Steelers -3.5 v. Eagles | 3-34 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Steelers keep on doing it, behind Roethlisberger, and running back of the day. Ben has thrown for 559 yards and 6 TDs in the early going, while DeAngelo has 237 rushing yards, while awaiting the return of Bell (out for first 3 games). Pittsburgh's defense was stung for 412 yards by Cincinnati last week, but only 16 points, so a 62-32 point edge so far, and check a 19½ point cover in Steelers' only road game (Washington). The Eagles are improved, but note allowing 27+ points in 8 of their last 11 contests. |
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09-25-16 | Chargers +1 v. Colts | 22-26 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last week Chargers' Rivers tossed for 4 TDs in the first 3 quarters in the walloping of Jacksonville (led 35-0). That one went against the super spread runs of the visitor in San Diego games, with the road team now on 12-2 and 19-5 runs. But make no mistake, the Chargers can move it overhead and overland (305-152 rushing edge this year). Third straight 0-2 start for Colts, who've allowed 848 yards, 73 points, and 52 first dows, with Luck coming from 385 passing yards to 197. San Dego is 13-0-1 ATS versus AFC South, and Indianapolis is 1-7 ATS versus San Diego |
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09-25-16 | Jets +3 v. Chiefs | 3-24 | Loss | -119 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No letup for either team. Kansas City needed OT to take Chargers, and suffered 3 first half lost fumbles in 19-12 road loss to Houston. Not their style. Smith just 2 touchdowns with 1 interception so far, but 64%. The Jets own a 50-34 first down edge, with Forte at 196 rushing yards, and Fitzpatrick at 563 passing yards and 3 touchdowns with 1 interception (was 24-of-34 for 374 yards versus the Bills). The visitor is on a 35-10 ATS run in KC games, while KC is possibly the top streak squad in the NFL (0-5, 6-0, 2-6 ATS runs last year). |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs -4.5 | 37-32 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a turnaround for Winston, who came from 4 touchdown passes in 31-24 win, to 4 interceptions in 40-7 loss. And that Buc defense has allowed 30.5 points per game in its last 6 games. Not only that but the visitor is 21-13 ATS in Tampa games. However, the Rams have managed exactly No TDs in their 2 games, with a 28-0 loss in their first road game (30½ point spread loss). So a 4.5 point per game average, and 2.7 yards per rush (65, 64 rushing yards). Season home opener for Tampa, with chance to move past .500. Rams simply don't have horses to match points here. |
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09-24-16 | Louisville -25 v. Marshall | Top | 59-28 | Win | 100 | 107 h 36 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NCAAF Game of the Month I don't know if there are any questions on this one! Try a 195-62 point edge for Cards so far (+81 points ATS), with Jackson at 972 yards and 10 touchdowns the L2 weeks (led Florida State 63-10). Simply amazing. Marshall in off just 2nd home loss in L23 games, but it was something else: 44½ point ATS loss, despite 413 passing yards from Litton. No doubt about this one! |
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09-24-16 | Stanford -3 v. UCLA | Top | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 107 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC - 12 Game of the Week Just a 50-yard edge for Cards over Southern California, but a 27-10 win, behind McCaffrey's 165 rushing yards and 56-yard TD catch. Now +138 points ATS in their last 20 games. Just 125 and 50 rushing yards for Ucla versus only 2 legitimate opponents, so this will depend almost entirely on Rosen, who ranks 73rd in passing efficiency. And the Bruins have been lit up for 30+ points 8 times since last year. This is a very reasonable number. |
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09-24-16 | Ball State -3.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 105 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units TD spread swing off last week's results, with Cards giving up 3 rushing yards in rout of Eastern Kentucky, and Owls in off 336-82 rushing yard deficit, with 4 turn overs. Now -131½ points ATS L6 games, while visitor is 11-3 ATS in Florida Atlantic games. |
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09-24-16 | New Mexico State v. Troy -20.5 | 6-52 | Win | 100 | 105 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nice defense displayed by Ags, allowing 62 points, 29 first downs and 683 yards at potent Kentucky. Trojans took 'em by 45 last year, with 5 first half TD passes from Silver, who tossed 3 in last weeks upset of Southern Miss. Have to go with Troy in this one |
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09-24-16 | Central Florida -6.5 v. Florida International | Top | 53-14 | Win | 100 | 67 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Vastly improved Knights took Maryland into OT, despite 4-0 turn over deficit. Nicely balanced 455 yards in that one. FIU owns 211-47 point deficit in their L5 lined games, and QB Holman hurting. Give up the points |
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09-24-16 | Boise State -13 v. Oregon State | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 102 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bronco bye week came at the appropriate time, after their 31-28 squeaking win over Washington State, allowing 480 passing yards and 26 first downs. Now away, and visitor is 7-0 ATS in Boise games. Beavers snapped 10-game losing streak (IdahoSt), with 5 TAs the key, as just 17 first downs. |
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09-19-16 | Eagles +3.5 v. Bears | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bears' 9 point loss at Houston went against the norm, as the underdog was on a nice 9-1-1 ATS run in Chicago games, to end the 2015 season. Tight games are the rule, as 10 of the Bears' final 12 games were decided by 5 points or less. In off allowing 10 unanswered points down the stretch of loss to Texans. The Eagles had a 403-288 yard and 39:20-20:40 time edges in win over Cleveland, with Wentz a solid 278 yards with 2 touchdown and 0 interceptions. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS on Monday, when off a SU win, while the Bears are 0-6 ATS at home off an AFC contest. |
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09-18-16 | Colts +6.5 v. Broncos | 20-34 | Loss | -105 | 91 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Champs won't approach the fever pitch of expectation as they did in opening thriller vs Panthers. But theColts are hardly slouches, with the return of Luck who had 385 passing yards with 3 touchdownd and 0 interceptions last week. Indy trailed all but 33 seconds of that one, losing to Detroit in the final 0:04. That one was all offense, which won't be the case here, as Broncos have no peers, defensively. However, the dog is now 12-2-1 ATS when Denver is at home, while Pagano is 10-1 ATS off SU loss. Broncs 0-9 ATS vs Colts, and Indy 6-1 ATS vs AFC West. |
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09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Improved Raiders pulled 35-34 upset of the Saints due to Carr TD pass and Carr 2-point conversion pass in final 0:47 last week. So 319 passing yards but just 1 TD pass - the big one. The underdog is now 9-5 ATS in Oakland games (2-4 LA), which coincides with fact that the Raiders were installed as a favorite 4 times last year, covering just once, by 2 points. Atlanta's loss to Tampa moved the success of the underdog to 11-2 in Falcon contests of late. Ryan LW had 334 passing yards so he still can move the ball, with Atlanta once again in the fray. OT wouldn't surprise me in this one. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 88 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units If the Panthers don't come roaring back following their tough loss to the Broncos, I will be surprised. Just 3 points for Carolina in the 2nd half of their loss. Sure, this is a Denver/Minny sandwich for the Panthers, but note that last years only regular season loss was followed with a 38-10 crushing of the Bucs. Carolina is 6-1 ATS hosting the Niners, and are on a 15-8-1 ATS run, with 7 of those 8 losses by |
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09-18-16 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 88 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second of back-to-back brutal road games to start the season for Dolphins, nearly beating the Seahawks, before losing 12-10 in the final 0:31, although that one wasn't as tight as actual margin, with Miami on the short end of 21-11 first down and 352-214 yard margins. Also a 254-173 point deficit for the Fish in their last 10 games, as well as a 5-16 ATS slide. The Pats keep on doing it. Garoppolo for Brady (264 passing yards with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, with no Gronk, along with 3 starting linemen. Patriots are 13-1 ATS off a SU non-division dog win. This seems to be a reasonable spread |
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09-17-16 | Troy v. Southern Miss -10.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -104 | 103 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Mismatch of the Week Trojans showed their mettle in tight loss to Clemson (29-point cover, only 28-yard deficit). But Eagles have an 83-0 point edge in their L6 quarters, and are 10-2 ATS. QB Mullens, RB Smith, etc, etc |
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09-17-16 | UL-Monroe v. Georgia Southern -24.5 | 21-23 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I continue to ride this meal ticket. Top rushing team the L2 years, and 2nd (Air Force) this year. La-Monroe licking its wounds off 59-17 loss to Okies, and now a 788-329 point deficit their L22 lined game. Georgia Southern again. |
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09-17-16 | Oregon +3.5 v. Nebraska | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 99 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nebraska shaking dust from wrenching '15 campaign, with 2 early cakers, although just 4 and 9 point covers, with 28-0 windup versus Wyoming. Armstrong: another 377 passing yards. Ducks as dogs? Well, try 5-0 in that role since '11. Check Prukop and Freeman: 331 passing yards and 209 rushing yards. Take the points. |
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09-17-16 | Alabama -10 v. Ole Miss | Top | 48-43 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Oh, how Alabama wants this one, after 2 straight losses to Mississippi, with last years 5 turn overs the key. Kelly bombed 'Tide for 3 long TD passes last year, but Ole Miss was manhandled in 2nd half by Florida State. Visitor is 10-1 ATS in Alabama games, so site not a problem. Revenge rears its head here. |
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09-17-16 | San Diego State -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Aztecs lost cover versus Cal in final 0:56, despite another splendid showing by Pumphrey who had 281 rushing yards (#1 rusher in land). Now +168 points ATS last 11 lined games, with a 135-38 point edge in L3 road games. NIU has 177-71 point deficit their L4 games, as well as a 536-290 rushing yard deficit this year. |
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09-17-16 | Florida State v. Louisville +2.5 | 20-63 | Win | 100 | 96 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units An 84-14 point edge in Florida State's last 6 quarters. Francois: 69%, with 5 TD's and 1 interception, with Cook the assassin. Florida State covered its last road game by 22½ points. But Cards in off ACC record 845 yards, with amazing 610 from Jackson (411 passing yards, 199 rushing yards). And Louisviille led its opener 56-0 at half. A classic. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6 v. Cardinals | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 97 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 squads were 1 win away from meeting in SuperBowl 50. Missed extra point put Pats behind "8 ball" the entire game in 20-18 loss to Denver, while Cards were crushed, 49-15 in seven turn over effort versus the Panthers. No Brady for Pats until game #5, so Garoppolo gets the call, opening versus the league's 7th-ranked defense. However, remember the fine job that Cassel did, in filling in for Tom in '08, as Belichick simply adjusts to the situation. This one should go to the wire, so take the points. |
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09-11-16 | Browns v. Eagles -4 | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 89 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Browns welcome back Hue Jackson to the head coaching but they need all the help they can get, as they're on 1-10 SU & 2-8 ATS runs. How about a 275-137 point deficit in their last 10 games (-68 points ATS), while topping 13 points in just 3 of those games. RG3 has taken a lot of hits from detractors, but he was a true force when healthy. Eagles have said goodbye to Kelly, finishing the preseason unscathed, with Wentz getting the QB call. Eagle "D" a disaster last year, but should flex their muscles in opener. |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +7.5 v. Chiefs | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 89 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chiefs are again figured among sure-fire playoff contenders, as well they should be, as Kansas City has made the postseason in 2-of-3 years, under Reid (11-5 during both the '13 & '15 regular seasons). But remember last year, when they opened at 1-5, both SU & ATS, before taking their next 11 on the field. Thus a solid TD favorite versus an underrated division opponent, San Diego, which has held the Chiefs to10 &19 points in their last 2 trips to Kansas City. The visitor is a profitable play in this one, as the road team is 18-4 & 34-9 ATS in Charger & Chief games respectively |
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09-11-16 | Vikings -2.5 v. Titans | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Loss of Bridgewater could take more than a year (torn ACL & dislocated knee). Minnesota has a bolstered offensive line, which should really help Peterson. Minnesota is on ATS runs of 22-5 overall, 14-3 last season, and an awesome 11-2 on the road. Titans calling on Mularkey as possible savior, following 3-13 campaign, which featured an 0-6-1 ATS windup, while scoring only 11.3 poinst per game in 10-of-last-12 games. |
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09-10-16 | Texas Tech +3 v. Arizona State | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 28 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Inter-Conference Game of the Week Both teams are off to routs of horrible teams, with the Raiders in their usual passing display with 633 passing yards (Mahomes had 483 yards with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The Sun Devils in 34-10 2nd half edge for their wipe out, but return only 4 offensive starters. The did get 180 passing yards and 89 rushing yards from Wilkins, but they are allowing 369 passing yards. Texas Tech can't wait for this one. |
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09-10-16 | Virginia Tech +11.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Vols were tied for 8th in the land in the "Polls" column, after winding up 2015 with a 35 points per game average, and 9 returning offensive starters. But they needed a 67-yard Dobbs TD pass to extend Appalachian State into OT (20-13 win), with only 127 rushing yards. Beamer-less Tech overcame 4 lost fumbles for rout of Liberty, allowing just 1 offensive TD. Hokies as a double digit dog is definitely the play. |
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09-10-16 | BYU +3.5 v. Utah | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units BYU has a score to settle after last years bowl meeting and have the weapons to do it (213-115 rushing yard edge at Arizona). They were +40½ points ATS in first 3 games last year. Only 19 first downs for Utah versus Southern Utah, but that defense is solid, allowing just 158 yards. However, Utah is -29 points ATS last 7 games. |
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09-10-16 | Georgia Southern -13 v. South Alabama | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 97 h 36 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week It was a huge comeback win for Jags at Mississippi State last week, overcoming a 20-7 deficit in the 4th, behind QB Davis and RB Thomas. But they had a 239-94 rushing yard deficit in the game. That in itself spells big trouble versus and unstoppable Georgia Southern running game that has been #1 in the nation the L2 years. Last week in their opener they had 420 rushing yards along with 34 first downs. |
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09-10-16 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Fla) -24 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 95 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, I know that the road team is 11-2 ATS in FAU games, as well as 10-4 ATS in Miami contests. But the University of Miami has 9 returning offensive starters, and new head coach Richt (from Georgia). Try 42 3rd quarter points in rout of Florida A&M. Owls barely got past Southern Illinois, allowing 26 first downs and 530 yards. |
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09-10-16 | Ohio +3 v. Kansas | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 91 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units KU in off snapping 15-game losing streak, doing it in style 55-6 (2 TDs in every quarter) vs RIU (399-49 passing yard edge). But Kansas gave up >40 points 8 times last year. Ohio clicked on 75-yard TD pass in final 0:38 for 38-35 lead versus Texas State, only to lose 56-54 in 3rd OT (missed 2-point try). A must regroup against a team that has only won 1 game in their last 16. |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | 20-21 | Win | 107 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a way to start the season with the last Super Bowl rematch on the 1st Thursday of season is unheard of. No more Manning, so untested Siemian gets the call versus this very good team, which has had to live with that loss for 7 months. In their last meeting the Bronco "D" forced 4 TOs, and had 7 sacks of Cam, 1 defensive TD and another score on 4-yard drive. So an automatic Panther call, right?, as they're on 15-7 ATS run, and at 32.5 points per game over their L10 games. But that Denver "D" seems made to contain this machine. Grab the defending champs as home dogs . |
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09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -111 | 118 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week A premier matchup the first week of the NCAAF season, despite Eagles failing to get a single preseason vote, while Clemson is once again figured as one of the Top 2 teams in the nation. As Watson is under center for Clemson, there is only 1 way to go. Now +115 points ATS in last 15 games, and on 27-4 SU run. Auburn still respectable, but outgained only 4 opponents last year |
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09-03-16 | Southern Miss +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 44-35 | Win | 100 | 116 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week Can the hapless 'Cats finally turn the corner? Have been whipping boys since '10, but their faithful have hopes of a resurgence, behind 9 returning offensive starters, although that defense is, as always, cause for concern. I rode the Eagles, with much success, last year, including a 167-44 point edge in their L3 regular season road games. Chalk inviting 9-0 in UK games, but not here |
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09-03-16 | North Carolina v. Georgia -2.5 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 114 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gone from the Bulldog sideline in former HC Richt, who was top man for 15 years. Replaced by 'Bama DC Smart, who should extend traditionally strong 'Dawg Defense. Lambert returns at QB (63%), along with 7 other offensive starters. Tar Heels (+98 points ATS L11 games) without all-around talents of QB Williams, but Trubisky able replacement |
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09-03-16 | Western Michigan +5.5 v. Northwestern | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 109 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units 'Cats an interesting outfit, with just 2 winning seasons over last 5 years, but both featured 10-3 marks. Also interesting is in '15, their 3 losses came by combined 123-16 score. Sort of like living on borrowed time, and note the dog at 11-5 ATS in NW contests. Broncs return proficient QB Terrell (#7 in nation), and enough starters for a tight game |
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09-03-16 | Boise State -20 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 109 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Quite a comedown for Broncos, despite last year's 9-4 mark, as they were -107½ points ATS in L6 regular season games, before routs in final 2 outings (38½ bowl cover). UL-La lost L2 home games by 46 points ATS, and came from 8-1 line skein to current 2-7-1 ATS mark. No offense or defense to compete |
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09-02-16 | Army +16 v. Temple | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 91 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right, Cadets have been whipping boys for past 2 decades with last winning season coming in '96. Enter this year off 2-10 campaign, so more of the same obviously expected. But note that no less than 7 of last year's losses came by |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +5.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver is a perfect 5-0 against the spread as an underdog, winning four of those games straight-up beating the Chiefs, Packers and Patriots twice. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last eight Super Bowls grading last year’s Seahawks-Patriots matchup as a pick. This game isn’t likely to be pretty. They’ve won an NFL-record 11 regular-season and postseason games by seven points or fewer. Manning has gone from all-time great to being just a glorified game manager. But run-oriented Denver coach Gary Kubiak was astute enough to grasp that concept. Pride trumps ego. Manning wants to go out a winner in what sure looks to be his final rodeo. He’s smart enough to make it work by setting up his defense – not the other way around. That’s the Broncos’ winning formula. |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite a 16-1 record, the likely MVP in Cam Newton, the best cornerback in football, Josh Norman, and six others who were selected either first or second team Pro Bowl, the Panthers draw no respect. Maybe the oddsmaker and marketplace got spooked by the Panthers only beating Seattle, 31-24, after leading 31-0 at halftime this past Sunday. But the Panthers are better than a field goal against the Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium where they have won 12 in a row. It should be kept in mind that the Panthers’ second-half goal against the Seahawks was running time off the clock rather than running up a score. It was the second time in two meetings the Panthers defeated the Seahawks, a team that destroyed the Cardinals, 30-6, at Arizona just three weeks ago. |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | 18-20 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos were 5-4 SU and ATS in Manning’s nine starts. Manning failed to produce any old magic against the Steelers either making his first start since Nov. 15 with a quarterback rating of 74.4. Manning struggled to put up a touchdown against the Steelers until capitalizing on a late fumble in Denver’s 23-16 victory. Even in his prime, Manning has a terrible playoff track record, including a 1-5 postseason record in sub-40 degree temperature, including a 24-13 home playoff loss to the Colts last season when he was in much better physical condition. The Patriots had their key linebackers, Dont’a Hightower (knee), Jamie Collins (back) and Jerod Mayo (shoulder) banged up against the Chiefs. So keep an eye on their status, but Bill Belichick has solid replacements and always has versatile defenders. The Broncos are forced to be a run-first team, although lacking a star runner. So they are not difficult to defend. New England ranks ninth in run defense. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven playoff games. |
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01-17-16 | Steelers v. Broncos -7.5 | 16-23 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 are no strangers when it comes to the post-season. They've battled in '77, '78, '84, '89, '97, '05, & '11. QBs in those games were Morton, Bradshaw, Elway, Plummer, Kordell Stewart, Tebow, Manning, Big Ben. And only 2 of those 7 came in Pittsburgh. So more of the same here, with rested Broncos still smarting from blowing a 27-13 to Pittsburgh 3 weeks ago, failing to contain Roethlisberger, who threw for 380 yards, with Brown the recipient of 16 catches for 189 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Pittsburgh is here, due to gift field goal following 2 personal foul calls on Cincinnati. But Ben, Brown, and running back Williams are all hurting. Without their 328 passing yards per game QB at 100%, the Steelers are up against it. |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This was Newton’s finest season of his five-year NFL career. He’s facing an elite disciplined stop unit, though, that knows him well. While the Seahawks still might be without enigmatic Marshawn Lynch, Carolina has been without its best running back, Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers’ defense has shown signs of leakage surrendering 35 points to the Giants in Week 15 and and 38 to to New Orleans in Week 13. The Panthers rate among the top defenses in the major categories, but have surrendered 23 or more points in seven of their 15 victories. Wilson can exploit a Panthers secondary whose two starting cornerbacks weren’t even on the roster on Thanksgiving. Carolina had to coax past-his-prime Cortland Finnegan out of retirement and sign Robert McClain to replace veteran Charles Tillman – one of the NFL’s all-time best at coming up with takeaways – and Bene’ Benwikere. Both suffered season-ending injuries. Seattle’s defense has no holes. Wilson is a proven big-game commodity. The Seahawks know how to win big road games. |
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01-16-16 | Packers v. Cardinals -7 | 20-26 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals are bolstered by the aggressive play-calling of Bruce Arians, unlike the Packers who have been stymied by questionable play-calling from their coaching staff. Mike McCarthy is a terrible underdog coach. Green Bay is 4-11-1 ATS the past 16 times getting points. Rodgers is going to have to keep pace with Palmer riding a passing game that hasn’t clicked much of the season, with slow receivers who can’t create individual matchups they can win and with a rushing attack that has been disappointing nearly the entire season. The Redskins were just the right opponent for Green Bay. The Cardinals are exactly the wrong opponent for the Packers. |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs +5 v. Patriots | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City is likely to be without its best wide receiver as Jeremy Maclin suffered an ankle injury in the Chiefs’ dominant 30-0 victory against Houston this past Saturday. The Chiefs are far from dynamic on offense. But Alex Smith rarely beats himself, the Chiefs have running back depth and Travis Kelce is a top tight end. The Patriots gave up an average of 136.5 yards rushing in losses to the Dolphins, Jets, Eagles and Broncos. The Patriots could be missing one of their best defensive players in linebacker Dont’a Hightower, who sat out the Dolphins game because of a lingering knee injury. The Patriots don’t have the firepower anymore to cover this spread given their injuries. The Patriots are just a mediocre 5-5 ATS since 2009 hosting playoff games winning by more than four points only four of the 10 times |
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01-11-16 | Alabama -6.5 v. Clemson | 45-40 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At season's end Alabama ranked 1st, 16th, 3rd, 4th, and 2nd in rushing, passing, scoring, passing efficiency, and total defense. And, as I wrote, previously, Saban has stated that this stop unit is his best ever, which is the ultimate compliment, as the 'Tide is simply the standard in that category. This year, their only setback came in 43-37 loss to Ole Miss, with Alabama on the wrong end of a 5-0 turnover margin. Heisman-winning Henry sits at a punishing 2,061 rushing yards (25 touchdowns), but in their 38-0 rout of #3 Michigan State, it was not only Alabama's defense that again dominated, but it marked the emergence of QB Coker: 25-of-30, 286 yards, 2 touchdown. The key, of course, is Alabama's ability to cope with Clemson's spread offense, led by Watson, the quintessential movable QB. However, two other quarterbacks with good wheels -- Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott – were frustrated by Alabama, mustering only 33 net rushing yards between them. |
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01-10-16 | Seahawks -3.5 v. Vikings | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vikings reaped quite a reward for their upset of the Packers, namely hosting the best team in the NFL. Minnesota is just superb, with its current 21-5 ATS run, 22-5 ATS versus non-division opponents. But Peterson and team will find the going a bit tougher versus the Seahawks, who hold a 224-98 point edge in their last 7 games, with Wilson at 24 touchdowns and only 1 interception over that span, as well as 1,038-401 rushing yard advantage. Teddy and Co are up against it in this one, even with the weather projected to be well below zero. |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs -3 v. Texans | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 have had similar seasons, with the Texans opening at 2-5, before finishing with a 7-2 mark, thanks mainly to Watt-led defense, which finished 3rd in the NFL. And they held 7 of their final 9 opponents to 8.1 points per game. And note a 64-12 point edge in their last 2 games (Tennessee and Jacksonville). Just their 3rd playoff game ever, and 1st since '12. Chiefs wound up with 10-0 SU run, on heels of 5-game slide (never been done before). Visitor is 33-9 ATS in KC tilts, & the chalk is 22-11 ATS in Houston games. The Texans don’t have enough talent and a decent enough quarterback to beat the hottest team in football. . |
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01-03-16 | Vikings +3 v. Packers | 20-13 | Win | 105 | 33 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is for the NFC North crown, with the Packers already assured of a playoff spot. Green Bay suddenly reeling, as 753-471 yard deficit over the past 2 weeks aptly demonstrates. Check Rodgers being sacked 8 times in wipeout loss to Arizona. But he is still brilliant 30 touchdowns wih 7 interceptions for the year and 60.4%. This is a revenge shot for Minnesota, who were taken to the woodshed in earlier 30-13 loss, despite a 342-320 yard edge. Minnesota is a splendid 20-5 ATS currently, and 10-2 ATS away. Zimmer 9-1 ATS as an underdog versus an opponent with an over .500 record. |
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01-03-16 | Chargers +10 v. Broncos | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The fortunes of the Broncos has changed a bit, as their seemingly smooth waltz into the playoffs has suddenly swerved, with onrushing Chiefs and Jets, along with blowing that 27-10 lead at Pittsburgh, as Osweiler's 2nd half performance was polar opposite of his opening half. The dog is 8-2 ATS when Denver is host, which meshes nicely with the fact that the visitor is on 11-1and 17-4 ATS runs in San Diego games. Rivers: 4,504 passying yards and 66.5%, but no rushing offense. Chargers are 7-1 ATS when visiting Denver. |
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01-03-16 | Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nine straight wins for the Chiefs, who need a win here, for playoff host role. Got by Cleveland last week, despite a 368-258 yard deficit (232-136 overland shortage). So a 7-2 ATS run (+103 points ATS), but staring at revenge here, as they were outgained by 129 yards in earlier 34-20 win over the Raiders. And note the visitor on a 32-9 ATS run in Kansas City games. Oakland: shot at 8-8 season, with Carr now at 31 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. The division visitor 5-0 ATS in Chief games this year and 5-0 ATS in Raider games as well. |
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01-03-16 | Jets -2.5 v. Bills | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Untis You think the Bills' fans might miss Doug Marrone a bit? Need this for a non-losing campaign, which isn't exactly what Ryan promised. Another 236 rushing yards for the league's top overland squad, and Taylor now with 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions (64%). But the won/loss column a disappointment. A win in this, and the Jets secure a Wild Card slot. Five straight wins, with a 626-302 rushing yard edge, and Fitzpatrick with 13 touchdowns and only 1 interception. New York is 7-1 ATS in division play, although its last 2 road games have been decided by ½ & 0 points ATS. Also the Jets are 8-0 ATS in December off a SU underdog win, versus an opponent off a home game. And the Bills are 1-6 ATS in 2nd of 2 home games |
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01-03-16 | Redskins +4 v. Cowboys | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units From worst to first for the Redskins, who have clinched the NFC East with 3 straight wins, coupled with demise of the rest of this sorry division. Check Washinton QB Cousins with 8 touchdowns and no inteceptions the past 2 weeks. That one pushed the underdog edge to 5-0 ATS (+38 points) in Washington games. The Cowboys are 1-10 SU without Romo, having been held below 20 points in their last 5 games. Washington is 12-2 ATS in December, off a pair of SU/ATS wins, and 6-1 ATS off 3 covers, as well as 7-0 ATS on the road off a double digit division cover |
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01-02-16 | West Virginia v. Arizona State | 43-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mounties make it 13 bowls in 14 seasons, although failing to top the 7-win plateau since 2011, when they posted the last of 4 consecutive double-digit win campaigns. A year ago, they dropped 4 of their last 5 games (1 cover), including their 45-37 Liberty Bowl loss to Texas A&M. This season was marked by a suicidal Oct schedule that produced 44-24, 33-26 (OT), 62-38, and 40-10 losses to Oklahoma, Oklahom State, Baylor, and Tcu (murderers' row), which moved their record to 3-4, before a 4-1 windup, which, but for a 97-yard kickoff return in final 2:07 at Kansas State, could have been 5-0. So a resume similar to Arizona State's. QB Howard was 3 touchdownd with 0 iterceptions and 346 passing yards in last years bowl loss. RB Small carries the load (1,447 rushing yards, 6.4 yards per rush, 9 touchdowns). The West Virginia Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. 5-1 Over in their last six January games. 7-3 Over in their last 10 bowl games. |
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01-02-16 | TCU v. Oregon -7 | 47-41 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ducks of Oregon were exposed early, with astounding 62-20 loss hosting Utah, and a 45-38 OT home loss to WashSt just 2 wks later, standing at 3-3, when they regrouped with 6-0 finish (5-1 ATS). QB Adams is no Mariotta, but although playing for much of the season with a broken finger, he sits at 2,446 yards, 64.6%, and 25 touhdowns with 6 interceptions. And RB Freeman ranks 4th in the nation. Both are dedicated, but more so the streaking and healthy Ducks, who seek to exorcise demons from last year's 42-20 title game loss to OhioSt. In additoin Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games on grass. |
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01-02-16 | Kansas State v. Arkansas -12.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Game of the Day This years Kansas State team is not Snyder's most dominant edition, outplaying only 1-of-9 conference opponentss (0-12 Kansas). QB Hubener is just 9 touchdowns with 9 interceptions and 47.8%, and cannot ignore Kansas State's #109 and #101 offense an defense rankings. Also, a 226-139 point deficit in its L6 games, and 2-10 ATS bowl record. It's another matter for the Hogs, who've had stat edges in 9-of-12 games, and that includes bowl-bound Toledo, TexA&M, Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Lsu. QB Allen (3,125 yards, 65.1%, 29 touchdowns with 7 interceptions) leads the SEC in touchdown passes, yards per attempt (9.08), and total QB rating (87.2). RB Collins ranks 16th in the land with 1,392 yards, 17 touchdowns. Thus, a balanced attack that was held in check just once. Guess who? Right, Alabama. And the Wildcats are no Crimson Tide. Obviously, I always respect Snyder in the dog role, but allowing 31+ points 7 times in an 8-game stretch this year hardly a hopeful sign. And UA (-7) took Texas, 31-7, in last year's Texas Bowl. |
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01-01-16 | Ole Miss -7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 48-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A year ago, Ole Miss climbed to the 3rd spot in the land thru 7 games, only to suffer back-to-back 3 and 4 point losses to Lsu & Auburn, and an eventual 9-4 record, and final ranking of #17, with a 42-3 loss to Tcu in the Peach Bowl. No Wallace at QB, but 16 starters, including brilliant WR Treadwell, who missed Rebs' final 4 games last year. But QB Kelly is a winner, earning his stripes in a shocking 43-37 upset of Alabama (5-0 turnover edge), with 340 passing yards and 3 touchdownd with 0 interceptions (67, 73, 24 yards). He ended the season at 3,740 yards, 65.2%, 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; and Treadwell: 1,082 yards receiving (8 touchdowns). Oklahoma State had no rushing, and a 2-QB system that may be without Rudolph, its main cog: 3,591 passing yard, 62.6%, 21 touchdowns with 9 interceptions. No way to enter a bowl |
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01-01-16 | Iowa +6 v. Stanford | 16-45 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Hawkeyes of Iowa came within 0:27 seconds of a perfect season, losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game. Not a single pre-season vote, but only bowl-bound Pitt, Indiana, and Minnesota exceeded 20 points versus this #10 run, #15 scoring, and #20 total defense. Canzeri is their go-to RB: 976 yards, 5.5 yards per rush, 12 touchdowns, but he is an on-again, off-again player, who has been slowed by nagging injuries (?? here). And Beathard (2,570 yards, 61.4%, 15.4) is 2nd-team All-Big Ten QB. Iowa's Ferentz is 5-2 ATS in his last 7 bowls, while the Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on grass. 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games following a loss. . Spot seems a bit heavy. Iowa! |
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01-01-16 | Florida v. Michigan -4 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 101 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year What a start Michigan made, opening at 5-1, with a 160-14 point edge when they entertained Michigan State, holding a 23-21 lead in the closing seconds only to botch a punt, which was returned for a touchdown after the clock ran out. But then 4 straight wins, before wipe out 42-13 finale loss Ohio State (369-57 rushing yard deficit). Improved, but vulnerable. Offense revolves around QB Rudock (2,739 yards, 64%, 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions), as UM ranks 97th in rushing. But try nation's 4th-ranked defense though. Thus, the Gators, and their 109th ranked offense should definitely feel the heat. Florida has also welcomed new head coaching (McElwain from Colorado State), with a 10-3 log the result, although it has been the takeaway that has been the major contributor (4 in upset of OleMiss, 5 in rout of Georgia). In their SEC title match with Alabama (29-15 loss), the Gators were on the short end of 25-7, 233-15 rushing yard, 437-180 rushing yard margins (touchdowns on 85-yard punt return and 46-yard pass). At least Michigan can move it. In addition, Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last six after an ATS loss. 5-1 ATS in their last six after a straight up loss. 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after giving up more than 200 yards on the ground. |
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01-01-16 | Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Game of the Day Since 2004, the Vols have posted just 5 winning campaigns, including a pair of 7-6 years. That is, until this season, when they took full advantage of no less than 18 starters (10 offensively), although it hardly seemed the case, as they opened at 3-4, with tough losses to Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas (combined 40-10), after leading or tied in the 4th quarter in each. However, note turning a 21-point deficit to Georgia, into a 38-31 win, along with a 5-game SU run to wind it all up, including that 53-point outburst versus a Vandy team which had allowed just 21 points per game in its first 11 games. QB Dobbs is their key, although he finished 68th in pass efficiency (2,125 yards, 60%, 15 touchdown and 5 interceptions). However, he led the SEC in QB rushing yards (9 touchdowns). |
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12-31-15 | Michigan State +10 v. Alabama | 0-38 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans of Michigan State, who have been in possession of 5 straight rock-ribbed defenses, ranking 6th, 4th, 2nd, and 8th in total defense, as well as 9th, 8th, 2nd, 1st versus the run ('11, '12, '13, '14), allowing 70 rushing yards per game in their last 4 bowls (Georgia, Tcu, Stanford, Baylor: 4-0 SU, ATS). This year was different, however, ranking low on defense, with an 0-6 ATS start, while allowing 21 points per game. But wins over Michigan and Ohio State, turned the season around, with that majestic 5 first down, 86 rushing yards, 46 passing yard defensive effort versus the Bucks. QB Cook is a brilliant 24 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. The Crimson Tide have shown they are susceptible through the air, Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly threw for 341 yards and three scores in their only loss of the season. The Spartans will give the Crimson Tide similar problems in this game. Alabama took them 49-7 in 2010 Capital One Bowl, but double-digit spread here seems a bit excessive. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Day For the Sooners, high hopes abounded, as they got off to a 4-0 start, averaging 42 points per game, but were dashed in a dispirited 24-17 loss to eventual 5-7 Texas, including a 313-67 rushing yard deficit. However, that's when they took stock and streamed to their current 7-0 SU run (6-1 ATS), by an average score of 52-19. They are led by QB Mayfield (#2 in pass efficiency, 3,389 yards, 68.6%, 35 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions), RB Perine (1,291 yards, 6.1 yards per rush, with 15 touchdowns), and WR Shepard (1,201 yards, 15.2 yards per catch, 11 touchdowns). Not quite like last year, when the Sooners quarterbacking was shaky. Sooners electrifying, and the Tigers just continue to win. Clemson couldn't stop North Carolina's Williams, so I am going for Mayfield and the Sooners. Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up |
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12-30-15 | NC State v. Mississippi State -5 | Top | 28-51 | Win | 100 | 68 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units This year appeared dismal for Mississippi State, until Prescott and his do-everything talent, opted to return for his Senior year. And he is once more extremely dangerous, as shown in Mississppi State's 51-50 win over Arkansas, in which he threw for 508 yards and 5 touchdowns, and ran for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. By season's end he became only the 6th SEC player to account for at least 100 touchdowns. This year, he is at 284.4 passing yards per game, 67%, and 25 touchdowns with 4 interceptions, while leading the Bulldogs with 541 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. The Wolfpack of North Carolina State opened at 4-0, but those wins came versus teams with Power Ratings of 25, 27, 28, along with a non-lined outfit. Just 3 wins thereafter, against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse, teams with 3-9, 3-9, and 4-8 records. So nary a win over any sort of quality opponent, although they did stay with Clemson for a half, before inevitable 56-41 loss (623-389 yard deficit). QB Brissett is an efficient 61.3%, and solid 19 touchdowns with 4 interceptions, but the North Carolina State running game is a shambles with the loss of Dayes (6.5 yards per rush, 12 touchdowns), and Thornton. The Bulldogs with a totally different psyche from last year's bowl loss |
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12-30-15 | Memphis +3 v. Auburn | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The other Tiger in this match, namely Memphis', opened the season on a 7-0 run, which included consecutive wins over bowl-bound Bowling Green, Cincinnati, South Florida, Ole Miss, and Tulsa. That resulted in a #15 poll ranking, with dreams of a playoff spot, before it all came crashing down in a 45-20 loss to Navy, with a 374-133 rushing yard deficit. And that shocker was followed by an even more bitter loss, when they blew a 34-14 lead over then 9-0 Houston with 12:58 left, losing, 35-34, in the final 1:27. Then an crumbling loss to Temple, before regrouping for 63-0 frustration releasing rout of hapless (2-10) Smu. QB Lynch is their horse, with 3,670 passing yard, 69%, and a stellar 28 touchdowns with only 3 interceptions. Motivation is key here, as Memphis goes for its 2nd straight 10-win season, |
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12-29-15 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. LSU | 27-56 | Loss | -130 | 50 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Seems as if LSU QB Harris (1,904 yards, 53%, 12/5) is just along for the ride, as Tigers rank 110th in passing. Not the case with the Raiders and their splendid Sophomore QB Mahomes, who has torched opponents for 4,238 passing yards (357 per game), 65%, with 32 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. And he is complemented by Washington, who ranks 13th in the land with 121.3 rushing yards per game (14 TDS). Try topping 50 points five times. However, as noted previously, when their opponents have the ball, it's curtains, as they've allowed more than 43 points on 7 occasions, including their 59-45 opening day win over non-spread Sam Houston. Bowl wise, the Tigers have covered just 1 of their last 6, while Tech has won 5 of its last 6 bowls SU. |
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12-29-15 | Air Force +7.5 v. California | 36-55 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units For the Air Force, this marks its 8th bowl game in the past 9 years, missing only with '13's brutal 2-10 record squad, which ranked 116th and 114th in scoring and total defense. However, head coach Calhoun then guided them to a record-tying 8-game turnaround with last years 10-3 record, including a 38-24 win over Western Michigan in the Idaho Potato Bowl, with a 284-79 rushing yard edge. This year, the home team has won 11-of-13 Air Force games on the field, but check a 37-30 win at Boise (18-point cover) with 328-141 rushing yard edge. By the way, the Falcons rank 23rd in total defense. I'll be shocked if this doesn't turn into a barn burner. This one is an underdog call. |
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12-28-15 | Central Michigan +5 v. Minnesota | 14-21 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units For the Chippewas of Central Michigan, this is their 7th bowl game in the past 10 years, and so far they stand at 4-1-1 ATS (3-3 SU). QB Rush is the real deal, with 309 passing yards per game, 67%, and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, leading Chips to a 5-1 SU windup, with their only miss in narrow 28-23 loss to 9-2 Toledo, after trailing 21-0 in the first 16:33. A year ago, they put it to me in the Bahamas Bowl, when they staged an unbelievable comeback versus Western Kentucky (-3½), in turning a 49-14 deficit in the 4th, into a 49-48 loss, with 3 touchdowns in the final 3:06, including a bizarre 20-yard touchdown pass on the final play, only to miss winning 1-point try. Thus, their 3 above bowl losses have been by 3, 3, 1 point. The underdog: 13-6 ATS in Minnesota games and 10-4 ATS in Central Michigan games. |
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12-27-15 | Texans -3 v. Titans | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texan defense back on track, holding horrible Indianapolis offense to 10 points, 14 first downs and 190 yards, after allowing 57 points in their previous 2 games. So the NFL's 7th-ranked defense, but have topped 24 points in just 2 of their last 15 contests. Weeden for Yates for Hoyer at QB, so a fluid situation, although in off first win at Indy in 13 years. Sole leader in AFC South so obviously fully focused. Titans may go it without Mariotta (knee). Tennessee averaging 11.9 points per game in 7-of-10 games, and Houston 12-1 ATS versus less than .500 division opponent off a road game. In addition, Tennessee is 2-13 SU, 3-10-2 ATS in its past 15 home contests. |
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12-27-15 | Browns v. Chiefs -10.5 | 13-17 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Browns and Johnny Manziel couldn’t cover as two-touchdown road underdogs last Sunday against Seattle. Now they get to try being double-digit underdogs against even a hotter team as Kansas City has won eight straight while going 7-1 ATS. The Chiefs are 24-2 SU, 18-8 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown. Kansas City is more opportunistic than good with a plus 15 takeaway ratio. Mike Pettine is dead man walking. Pettine would best be served letting Manziel get out of the pocket and try to work his old college magic. But Pettine is too old school and narrow-minded to do that. Cleveland has dropped 13 of its last 14 games in December |
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12-27-15 | Cowboys +6.5 v. Bills | 6-16 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas has done a great job of proving it can’t win without Tony Romo going 1-9 in his absence. Yet the Cowboys keep things close with six of their losses coming by seven points or less. Dallas has covered 79 percent of the time, too, the past 24 times as an underdog of more than three points. Expect Kellen Moore to get the start, which should provide a spark from stale and washed-up Matt Cassel. Revitalized Darren McFadden has put together five 100-yard rushing games, while Buffalo may be without its best running back, LeSean McCoy, who suffered a knee injury this past Sunday. The unmotivated Bills have dropped four in a row, surrendering an average of 27.2 points during this span. They will be missing the playoffs for the 16th straight season, longest streak in the NFL. Rex Ryan has proven to be more quip than sizzle. He’s turned a strong defense into an inept one. |
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12-27-15 | Panthers -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Quick revenge shot for Falcons, who were taken apart, 38-0, just 2 weeks ago, along with a 424-230 yard deficit. At least Atlanta save some face, by snapping 0-6 SU and 0-9 ATS slides (1st cover since Oct 4) in 23-17 win over Jags. Still -79 points ATS last 10 games, and 0-5 ATS in division play. Panther magic continues, although blowing 35-28 lead in 3rd was a bit scary. Cam simply superb: 5 touchdown passes in 3-of-5 tilts (19 in those 3). Now 18 straight regular season wins. Falcs 1-15 ATS as underdogs of greater than 3 points off 2 road games |
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12-27-15 | Steelers -10 v. Ravens | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day - It has all fallen apart for the Ravens, who got off to that horrid 0-3 and 1-6 start. At least they've been competitive at home, with first 5 games decided by 4 points or less SU. That is until the last 2 weeks, namely 35-6 and 34-14 losses to smoking Seahawks and Chiefs. First time in their 20-year history, that the Ravens have dropped 5 home games. And it hardly gets any easier, as Pittsburgh not only finished last weeks game with Denver on a 24-0 run, but has topped 29 points in its last 6 games. Ben is now at 337 passing yards per game. No stopping the Steelers now. |
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12-26-15 | Indiana -3 v. Duke | 41-44 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hoosiers scored 53 touchdowns. QB Nate Sudfield was brilliant in the homestretch, compensating for the absence of RB Jordan Howard (knee injury; check status). But the IU “D” was a sore spot once again. The Hoosiers allowed 503 yards per game and were last in passing yards allowed. Duke was close-but-no-cigar vs. stronger opponents in their last two bowl games. Perhaps this is the year they get over the hump, but the absence of Cash, who had post-season wrist surgery, looms large, tilting me toward Indiana which played the stronger schedule and was live into the 4th quarter vs. Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan. |
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12-26-15 | Connecticut v. Marshall -5 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A win here would mean 3 straight double digit win campaigns for Marshall, something that hasn't happened since their glory years of '97 thru '02, when they went 65-13 (Randy Moss, Chad Pennington, etc). However, the Herd hardly faced the toughest schedule in the land, beating only one team with a winning record (SoMiss), while the Huskies are responsible for Houston's only loss, holding the Coogs to only 1 offensive TD. Points at a premium here, and Marshall's post-season pedigree has me leaning in their direction. The Thundering Herd are 7-1 SU/ATS in their last eight bowl games and UConn hasn't won a meaningful road game all year. |
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12-24-15 | Cincinnati v. San Diego State -2.5 | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Aztecs continue as an "under the radar" squad that simply wins. This year, they started 1-3 SU, before turning it around completely, with, not only a 9-game SU run, but accompanying 7-1-1 ATS mark, with their only miss by 2 points in their 27-24 MWC title game win over Air Force. They are the opposite of Cincinnati, as they are a run-oriented outfit, led by the brilliant Pumphrey, who has a combined 3,421 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns the past 2 years. The Aztecs have gone it without QB Smith their last 2 games, which has to hurt, with his 13/2 TD to INT ratio. Such a loss cannot be negated, although the Aztecs field not only that overland attack, but also the nation's 5th best defense |
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12-23-15 | Georgia Southern v. Bowling Green -5 | 58-27 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Falcons of Bowling Green have gone bowling 4 of the previous 6 years, with 43-42, 29-20, 30-27, 33-28 finals. Pure entertainment, with plenty of fireworks. And the menu is again filled, behind the redoubtable Johnson, who has thrown for 4,700 yards (68%), 43 TDs and just 8 picks, although he was a pedestrian 2/2 in Bowling Green's 34-14 win over NIU in the MAC title game (28-0 in 3rd). In their final 7 regular season games, the Falcons averaged 49.7 points per game, stumbling only in a 5-Turn over loss to 9-2 Toledo, with Johnson a mediocre 3/2. Although, this is the Eagle's first "big time" bowl, make no mistake, they've been an FCS power for ages, but can they control the ball enough to quell that Bowling Green offense? Nope. |
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12-23-15 | Boise State -7.5 v. Northern Illinois | 55-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Profit Play The Huskies of Northern Illinois are also a step below recent editions, which finished at 11-3, 11-3, 12-2, 12-2, 11-3 from '10 thru '14. So this makes 8 consecutive bowl campaigns for this somewhat unnoticed school, which has gone 2-5, both SU & ATS, in its previous holiday ventures. However, a definite bowl trend comes into play, as the favorite has won & covered ALL 7 of those games, most notably in their 31-10 (+13½) loss to Florida State in the '12 Orange Bowl. Nicely balance, but lost QB Hare (1,962, 14/4) in upset of previously perfect Toldeo (Nov 3). Couldn't stay with Bowling Green in MAC title (501-259 yard deficit). Just cannot dismiss that bowl chalk success. In addition, The Broncos are 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS in bowl games in which HC Bryan Harsin was involved |
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12-21-15 | Lions v. Saints -2.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit is 4-18 ATS in games played during December and later and are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 regular season road match ups. Drew Brees has 18 touchdown throws in six home games compared to six touchdown passes in an equal number of road games |
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