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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-21-19 | UCLA v. Washington State -18.5 | Top | 67-63 | Loss | -109 | 105 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Game of the Week Can this be anything but? Sure, the Cougars lost 8 starters, including QB Minshew, but are 11-2 ATS at home, & Gordon has picked up baton, by leading the nation, at 441.3 passing yards per game. Bruins continue along their feeble way: 17 points from a 7-34 line run, & can't run: 78 yards per game. |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia -14.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Irish in off rare blowout win, blasting New Mexico (country's worst "D"), 66-14. Book: 5 touchdowns with 0 interceptions, with 59, 65, 37, 54, & 20 yard TD passes. Note that both Louisville & New Mexico out rushed the Notre Dame. Georgia only 11 points from a 10-0 ATS run, & well remember being nosed out of last year's playoffs |
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09-21-19 | Temple -13.5 v. Buffalo | 22-38 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units As always, the Owls just keep on chugging. Have been one of the premier plays for the last 4 years, with current 28-10 ATS run, which includes last week's upset of a smoking Maryland team which entered off a 43½ pt cover in 63-20 rout of a decent Syracuse squad. The Bulls have been decimated, having lost 12 starters from last year's team which posted a 10-2 record in regular season games, including an upset of these Owls. Thus, the revenge motive slips into the picture. UB's 35-17 loss to Liberty last week (24-pt line loss), seals it. |
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09-21-19 | SMU v. TCU -9.5 | 41-38 | Loss | -107 | 70 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Frogs are continuing their fine play. Just 10 pts from a 10-1 ATS run, & fresh off a 34-13 pounding of Purdue, with 346-23 rushing yard edge, behind Anderson's 179 rushing yards (11.2 yards per rush). SMU got another 219 passing yards from Buechele (290.3 yards per game), mauling Texas State's 2nd-worst "D". Spread very doable. |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida -11.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 34-35 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week They keep on doing it. Knights now on 28-1 SU run, with accompanying 17-6-1 spread run, topping 37 points in 24 regular season games since '17. A 604-253 yards per game edge this year, with Gabriel at 9 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. Pitt at just 87.3 rushing yards per game, with a 117-70 point deficit in its last 6 lined games. Sure QB Pickett is at 293 passing yards per game, but Panthers just missed on the one that they truly wanted (Penn State) |
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09-21-19 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -3.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 94 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day Payback for last year's Wolverine stomping of the Badgers, with a 320-187 rushing yard edge. Wisconsin hasn't exactly taken on the cream thus far, but cannot argue with 110-0 point edge, nor its balanced 217 rushing yards per game, 300 passing yards per game "O", as well as its 107.5 yards per game "D". First road game for Michigan, with the host on an 11-5 ATS run in UM contests. Tables turned from year ago |
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09-21-19 | Michigan State v. Northwestern +9.5 | 31-10 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Go ahead, figure out the Spartans, who have averaged 7.8 points per game in 5 of their last 7 games, & 39.5 points per game in the other 2. But rank #2 in rushing "D". Dog is 14-2-1 ATS in Northwestern games, with the 2 misses by just 7 & 3½ points. Johnson 113th passer in the land, but we pull pup lever |
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09-20-19 | Air Force +8.5 v. Boise State | 19-30 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Double whammy here, as dog in Falcon games continues as "money" (26-of-30 ATS). Took Colorado in OT, after blowing 23-10 lead in 4th. Hammond: 2 passing TDs. Broncos off to perfect start, but note winning their 2 lined games by only 5 & 7 points SU. A Falcon call. |
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09-16-19 | Browns -6.5 v. Jets | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I had the Titans as play last week in their 43-13 annihilation of these Browns, who looked anything but the up-&-coming franchise, that 2018 foresaw. Quite an embarrassing performance. First of four prime time occasions for Cleveland this year, after just 11 times previous 10 years. In off their most penalty yards since 1951. Jets did themselves no favors, in blowing 16-0 lead in 4th vs the Bills, & now 1-8 when Darnold throws less than 2 TDs. Much of the team's optimism was based on the expected progress of Darnold, but his illness paves the way for Trevor Siemian to make his first start since 2017 with Denver. It continued a dismal week for the Jets, who saw linebacker C.J. Mosley exit the season opener with a groin injury and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa (neck) placed on season-ending injured reserve. Browns learned their lesson last week |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | 28-10 | Win | 101 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Double poison for the Raiders here, as they are in off their Monday war with the Broncos, while the Chiefs, under Reid, are possibly the top streak team in the NFL, thereby signalling another solid win. Fifth straight 1-0 start for the Chiefs, although KC fans were holding their collective breath, after Mahomes hobbled off the field early in that one. His first quarter stats: 8-of-9 for 211 yards & 2 TDs (ended up with 378 passing yards, 75.8%, & 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. Raiders 1-6 ATS off Denver, 2-10 ATS hosting foes off 35+ points. |
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09-15-19 | 49ers v. Bengals | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating:Â 2 Units Opening day heartbreak is quite normal for the Bengals, losing despite a career day for Dalton (35-of-51 for 418 yards & 2 touchdowns with 0 interceptions). Thus the biggest opening day upset didn't occur. This is final of 3 former Super Bowl match ups, a mere 39 & 31 years ago. Niners had a 295-256 yard deficit in their win over the Bucs, with 4 takeaways, with RB Coleman leaving the game in the 3rd quarter. The Bengals are 11-2 ATS in September games vs the AFC. |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens -13 | 17-23 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two of last three Heisman winners meet here (Jackson in '16, Murray in '18). Cards scored 21 straight points in the 4th quarter & OT vs the Lions for the 24-24 tie. Murray's debut: 29-of-54, 308 yards, &Â touchdowns with 1 interception. Larry Fitzgerald is an absolute marvel (8 grabs, 114 yards, & huge 45-yard diving catch in OT). For the Ravens & their demolition of the Dolphins, it was Jackson at his best. First half: 10-of-11, 210 yards, 4 TDs. Check 33-12 first down, 643-200, & 40:07-19:53 time edges. Jackson: 324 passing yards & 5 touchdowns with 0 interctions. Another rout. |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -101 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Did the Steelers lay an egg in Foxboro, or what, managing only 3 points (2nd straight team that the Pats held to a FG). Remember the Super Bowl? Ben: 27-of 47, for 276 yards, but 0 touchdowns with 1 interception. A 20-0 deficit at the half, in 33-3 final. Many a Seahawk fan believes that the refs did them no favors vs the Steelers in Super Bowl XL. That was 14 years ago, & Ben was the QB for Pitt. Seahawks got the win over Cincy, but note a 12-22 first down deficit, with 3 takeaways the key. Seattle is 0-8 as an AFC road dog of less than 7½ points as well as 0-5 in their last five games in Week 2 and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in September. . |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units 'Bama transfer Hurts has been simply spectacular for the Sooners: 591 passing yards (6 touchdowns with 0 interceptions), & 223 rushing yard (9.3 ypr). OU's bane, of course is its "D" (114th last year). However, the Bruins just 17 points from 7-33 ATS run, & can't run (62, 62 rushing yards this year). |
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09-14-19 | Florida State v. Virginia -7 | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, we are fully aware of the fact that the dog is 7-2-1 ATS in Cavalier games. However, Virginia is on a 9-4 spread run, including last year's 28-0 rout of South Carolina, in the Belk Bowl. Seminoles have allowed 40 points per game thus far (luck out OT win vs Monroe), with 290-171 point deficit last 7 tilts |
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09-14-19 | Alabama -25 v. South Carolina | Top | 47-23 | Loss | -102 | 98 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Smash of the Week Incredible 'Tide now has a 1,066-394 point edge in its last 25 lined games. As usual, Saban called off the dogs in last week's rout of New Mexico State. Tua now has 7 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. South Carolina lost QB Bentley, but check Hilnski's 24-of-30 (282 yards) last week. But don't forget that 483-270 yard deficit at North Carolina. Not going to be close. |
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09-14-19 | Stanford v. Central Florida -7 | Top | 27-45 | Win | 100 | 98 h 60 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week Again & Again! Knights now on 27-1 SU run, topping 37 points 22 times since '17. A 665-146 rushing yard edge this year, with QB Gabriel has 5 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. And on 16-6-4 ATS run. Cards have rung up 3 "O" TDs so far, & going it without QB Costello. A 157-yard deficit at Southern Cal a precursor here? |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma State -14 v. Tulsa | Top | 40-21 | Win | 101 | 94 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Mismatch of the Day Another win for the 'Cane, who are on a 4-18 SU run. Surely impressed vs San Jose State, with balanced 256 rushing yards, & 283 passing yards (Brooks: 140 rushing yards last week). However, 'Pokes are relentless (40.1 ppg in their last 48 lined games). Sanders: 59 & 75 yard TD passes last week, & 6 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. We don't buck 'em |
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09-14-19 | NC State -6.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 27-44 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day McKay has replaced the brilliant Finley for the 'Pack (40-of-52: 77%) in cakers vs likes of East & West Carolina. Also check a 500-49 rushing yard edge. Mounties lost without Grier & 11 other starters: 13, 13 first downs, along with 34-30 rushing yards. Only way to go. |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans has dropped five straight season openers for SU and ATS and draws a tough matchup in the Texans, who captured the AFC South in 2018 and revamped their roster with a series of notable moves on cut-down weekend, including trading away former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney. QB Watson is a gamer, meaning he steps up for big games. With Andrew Luck suddenly out of football the door is open for the Texas to take the division. |
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09-08-19 | Bengals +10.5 v. Seahawks | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The "Legion of Boom" is officially over, but man, they were something else (Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Browner, Thurman, & Maxwell). Made playoffs 7 of last 9 seasons, under Pete Carroll, & seems all the weight is now on QB Wilson. Bengals' new HC, Taylor takes over for Marvin Lewis, who led them for 16 years. But when you go 0-7 in playoffs, only so much patience. Despite it all, Cincy is 17-8-3 ATS in the month of Sept. |
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09-08-19 | Titans +6 v. Browns | 43-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The expectations are extremely high, as far as the Browns are concerned, as they captured the imagination of the NFL, with their vast improvement, coming from a combined 2-44 SU run, to last year's 7-8-1 record. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield, of course, was the catalyst. And his worth has actually risen, with the addition of HC Kitchens, WR Beckham, & RB Hunt, only increasing their expectations. But Titans, with a healthy Mariota, are a sneaky good outfit (got to divisional playoffs in '17). No pushovers. And their "D" line has improved. |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rams were just a few plays from being the defending Super Bowl champs, despite posting a mere 3 points. That impressive "D", who held the Pats to 13 points, has added Eric Weddle & Clay Matthews. Could work wonders with Wade Phillips' aggressive defensive philosophy. The #1 question with Panthers, of course is status of Cam's throwing shoulder. Losing LB Davis & DE Peppers, however, can't help. Rams the play. |
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09-08-19 | Ravens -6.5 v. Dolphins | 59-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the first time since '07, Joe Flacco will not be under center as the Ravens kick off this season. But this franchise is firmly behind the electric Jackson, who led Baltimore to the playoffs once more, before being ousted at home by the Chargers. Not only did they lose a veteran on "O", also Weddle, who has been replaced by Earl Thomas. New coaching regime for the Fins. Now 24 different AFC East head coaches since Belichick started dominating the division. Ravens are 8-0 ATS vs Miami. |
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09-07-19 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina +5 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week Extra week to prepare for 'Canes after loss (3-pt cover) to Florida (six lead changes), despite 94-50 rushing yard edge. Tars rode Brown's return to enviously balanced (238 rushing yards, 245 passing yards) win over South Caroline, with 213-yard edge. 'Heels just 8 points from 7-0 spread run. Again. |
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09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +7 | 45-38 | Push | 0 | 46 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units ÂThis is a classic matchup, most notably in the Quarterbacking category, as both Texas, (with Ehlinger), & Lsu, (with Burrow), have 2 of the nation's top signal callers. And did they ever shine in their prospective openers. Ehlinger: 28-of-38 & 4/0 (in wipeout of LaTech); Burrow: 23-of-27, & 5/0 (all in first half, in demolition of Georgia Southern). In last year's bowls, these 2 were among the most impressive, with the Bayous destroying Central Florida statwise, & the Steers (+13) upsetting Georgia. The dog is 16-5 ATS in Longhorn games. We ride it again. |
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09-07-19 | Central Florida -10.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It didn't take long for the public to jump on the Knights, as a single digit chalk vs an outfit which enters off a trip to Ohio State, in a game that saw the Owls allow 4 TD passes in the first 8:10 (Fields for Haskins), while eventually covering the 27½ point spot in a 45-24 final, as new Buckeye HC Day then went to the running game, resulting in a 237-22 overland edge. The Knights have been spectacular, topping 37 points no less than 21 times since '17, with accompanying, 26-1 SU run (24-10 ATS). Check 338-4 rushing yard edge in their opener. |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State +9 v. UCLA | 23-14 | Win | 100 | 42 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Same as last year for these 2. Latest 'Tec dynamic RB Washington: just 2.5 yards per rush in 6-0 rout of Weber State. Dog is 13-1 ATS in San Diego State games, which is still seeking an offense. Bruins only 17 points from a 7-32 ATS run, as woes continue, with 12 first downs & a 200-yard deficit at Cincinnati. To make matters worse, note that Uclans host Oklahoma next week. Bruins as favorites? No. |
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09-07-19 | South Florida v. Georgia Tech -6 | Top | 10-14 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 25 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit CFB Play of the Day Tech missed cover at Clemson on late 51-yard FG. A 411-157 rushing yard deficit for 'Jackets' formerly overpowering run game (#1 last year). Now 131-45 point deficit in L3 tilts. Nine returning Bull "O" players made little difference in the horrendous 0-point, 9-first down, 157-yard effort vs Wisconsin. |
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09-07-19 | Northern Illinois v. Utah -21.5 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -106 | 40 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Mismatch of the Week Last week we described the Utes as "always there", & weren't they ever in 30-12 throttling of oncoming Byu, behind Huntley's 13-of-16, & 181 Moss rushing yards (35:58-24:02 time edge). Just 90 rushing yards, & 24 points for NIU vs Illinois State, including a 68-yard Bowers TD pass. Utes smother 'em. |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears -3 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating:Â 2 Units This matchup was Khalil Mack's coming out party, as a Bear, when he completely dominated that SNF match up vs the Pack, injuring Rodgers in the process. Matt LaFleur takes over as Green Bay head coach, as not only did Packers lose McCarthy, but also veterans Matthews & Cobb. However, GB is always in the hunt with a healthy Aaron. Bears: 12-5 SU & ATS in '17, falling victim to Nick Foles' January magic. Have all the ingredients to continue up ticking |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame -20 v. Louisville | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -105 | 148 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week We've never seen such a dramatic drop as these Cards are experiencing: -331½ points ATS in their last 27 outings (6-21). Another? Okay, Louisville allowing 57 ppg in its last 7 games. Irish got to Final Four, before being taken apart by Clemson. Return 7 offensive starters, including QB Book. A one-sided affair. |
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09-01-19 | Houston +24.5 v. Oklahoma | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 117 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mighty Sooners are again figured among the elite squads, with their annually overpowering offense. Such is the case once more, despite the departure of QB Murray (OU's 2nd consecutive Heisman winner). Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts starts in place of Murray, & certainly had his moments with the 'Tide, but he just doesn't possess the pure passing ability of either Mayfield & Murray, which will be needed, as the Okie "D" allowed 454 ppg & 33 ppg in '18. Prime example is Sooners' 345-317 pt edge in their last 7 games. The Cougars are led by super QB King, who does it overhead, & overland leading the UH "O" to 41 or more points ten times LY |
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08-31-19 | Georgia -21 v. Vanderbilt | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 99 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Can't imagine any team being more frustrated than these 'Dawgs, who've suffered a pair of hairs-breadth losses to Alabama, in search of a national title, the past 2 years. They own the 'Dores, overland, & despite Vandy's decent play, not on Georgia plateau |
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08-31-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -5 | 10-15 | Push | 0 | 92 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Can Luke & Co plug up that porous Rebel "D" which allowed 31+ points in 8 of its final 9 games? Ole Miss is on a brutal 1-9 spread run, but have recruited decently LA. Tigers averaging 42.6 ppg in their last 20 lined games, while covering 8-of-9 home games. Revenge for '16 wipe out, behind dependable White (3,296 passing yards, 26/9) & RB Taylor (34 TDs L3 years). Â |
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08-31-19 | Toledo +12 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 92 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Kentucky is coming off 3 consecutive bowl campaigns, & rare 10-win season, but will be hard pressed to continue that performance, as they've lost a dozen starters, including record-setting RB Snell. Underdog is 18-6 ATS in UK games, & Rockets not only topped 50 points on 5 lined occasions in '18, but have been a staple for the last decade. All ingredients for a nail biter. |
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08-31-19 | Boise State +5 v. Florida State | Top | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 91 h 26 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Florida State on a steady decline (12-13 SU L2 years), with unthinkable 210-87 point deficit in their last 5 outings. Hornibrook or Blackman at QB? Broncos have said goodbye to QB Rypien (13,587 passing yards on 1,035 completions for his career), but Boise has been a steady force forever. Note visitor is 29-12 ATS in Bronco games. Take the points. |
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08-30-19 | Oklahoma State -14 v. Oregon State | 52-36 | Win | 100 | 78 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Year after year, the Cowboys just continue on as an offensive powerhouse. Loss of QB Cornelius (4,394 yards in '18) hurts, & defense a concern. But opening against a Beaver team which has allowed 34+ points in 21-of-22 lined games certainly helps. And Oklahoma State's home field is of little help. Gundy replacing some offensive help, but a rout. |
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08-30-19 | Rice v. Army -21.5 | 7-14 | Loss | -103 | 67 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You have to go back decades to find the last time that the Cadets have been pegged as this much of a chalk, which naturally gives the public pause, despite their steady climb over the last 3 years, which have seen them come from a 2-10 record in '15, to 8-5 in '16, to 10-3 in '17, to 11-2 in '18 (never won 11 games, previously). Of course, they do it with a running game that forced overtime at Oklahoma, as a 31-pt underdog (339 RYs), & routed Houston, 70-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl (507 yds). Owl fans were expecting more, following three straight bowl seasons, but things have turned around, with a combined 6-31 in their 3 years since. Sure, it's heavy spot, but no letup with military teams, thus a continuation of upswing |
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08-24-19 | Arizona v. Hawaii +11 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats highly-touted offense slipped a few notches in head coach Kevin Sumlin’s debut last season, no thanks to an injury-laden campaign from QB Khalil Tate. He’s healthy now and as a result, Arizona is expected to be drastically improved in 2019. Still, opening the season in Hawaii has not been an ideal location for visiting teams as they are just 3-3 SU and 0-6 ATS in this role since 2010. On the flip side, the deeply experienced Warriors improved from 3 wins to an 8-victory bowl unit last season and return 18 staters this year. Hawaii is also 6-0 ATS at home against Pac-12 opponents. |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The first renewal of this classic in-state rivalry since 2013 takes place in Orlando where it appears that the Gators hold a huge edge in both head coach and quarterback experience. Florida will have its hands full matching last year’s production, though, especially with all six games away from the Swamp coming against bowl teams. Meanwhile, former defensive coordinator and new Miami head coach Manny Diaz will likely be searching for a go-to signal caller throughout most of the season. Look for UM’s 4th ranked defense last year to be the catalyst early on in 2019 for the Hurricanes, starting here, as Miami improves to 7-1 ATS in this series |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2.5 v. Rams | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 237 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, it sounds like a broken record, but the dynasty that Belichick & Brady have established with the Pats won't be equalled. Five Super Bowl wins since '01, all with Tom under center (only QB to win 5), & now on the brink of six. The most impressive unit on the field has to be the Pats' offensive line, anchored by Brown, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, & Cannon, with sure-handed receivers in Edelman, Hogan, & Gronk. Brilliant slot receivers from Brown, to Welker, Edelman, etc. Brady hasn't been under pressure in his 2 playoff games, but will that end with the Rams' near unstoppable quartet of Donald, Suh, Brockers, & Fowler? The Giants had the luxury of rushing only 4, in their 2 wins over New England (along with a pair of extraordinary receptions). As we've noted previously, the Pats could easily be 8-0 in Super Bowl appearances, but just as easily could be 0-8 (final margins of 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 6, & 8 points). Veteran Brady over youngster Mahomes last week, & that edge just may repeat here, with Goff in only his 3rd year. A Patriot call. |
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01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | 37-31 | Win | 105 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New England lost five times on the road -- three by double digits -- and struggled in December, but put on a clinic against the Los Angeles Chargers a week ago, scoring touchdowns on its first five possessions en route to a 41-28 cakewalk. Brady, who has won five Super Bowl titles and earned game MVP honors four times, threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs in mid-October. Rookie running back Sony Michel rushed for 106 yards and two TDs in the first meeting versus Kansas City and warmed up for the rematch by rumbling for 129 yards and three scores against the Chargers. The clinchers:Â New England is 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while Kansas City is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games. |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second meeting of the season for these 2 squads, with the Saints taking a 45-35 barn burner on week 6, behind 346 passing yards & 4 TDs (no picks) from Drew, out dueling Goff, who threw for 391 yards (3/1), with a 10-0 windup. Total yards: New Orleans, a 487-483 yard edge. Just 3 punts. Brees a brilliant 28-of-38 last week (8th postseason 300-yd game). The Saints, ala the Patriots, are near invincible as playoff hosts, standing at 6-0 SU with Payton & Brees. Their win over the Eagles marked their first Divisional Playoff win since '09 (won Super Bowl that year), as well as their largest postseason comeback win (trailed Philly 14-0). These 2 teams have been at the pinnacle all season. Plenty of fireworks, with a nod to the Saints. |
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01-13-19 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 95 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eagles were in danger of not even making the playoffs, but that was before the return of Nick Foles, who is 10-2 as a starter since last Dec. And try 4th playoff win as an underdog (3rd most by a starting QB in the Super Bowl Era). As dominant as the Saints are in this building, Brees & Payton are only 2-2 ATS in the Superdome in the playoffs. More than TD spot a bit much. |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | 28-41 | Loss | -103 | 91 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Patriots can't go on forever, but here they are again. Brady & Belichick simply amazing, clinching a first round bye for the 9th straight season. Not only that, but in a rarity, they've been pegged as 4½ pt chalks vs a team with a better record. Why? Try 15 straight home wins, including playoffs. However, note just an 8-8 ATS playoff home game run since their undefeated 2007 regular season. Chargers in off holding league's best rushing team to 90 rushing yards, with Rivers another solid game (21-of-31). Chargers superb travelers, winning in Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, & Baltimore. With Gronkowski ailing, I have to give Chargers a look. |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 81 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cowboys are in off their first playoff win since '14 Wild Card vs Lions. Took Seattle thanks to another stellar showing from Elliott (137 rushing yards), who is averaging 5.1 yards per rush on 1st down carries, which matches Rams' league-worst 5.1 yards per rush defense. Remember, the Cowboys opened at 3-5, thus on a current 8-1 run. Also, keep in mind that Dallas held Seattle's top-ranked rushing offense (160 yards per game), to just 73 yards (fewest since Week 1). Rams clinched first-round bye for 1st time since '03 (double OT loss to Panthers), & should have RB Gurley back. However, the Rams managed just 2 covers over an 11-game run, before romp wins over patsy Niners & Cards. This one is going to be a fight to the end. |
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01-12-19 | Colts +5.5 v. Chiefs | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chiefs have home field throughout for the first time since '97, when they lost to eventual Super Bowl Champ Denver, 14-10, in this round, & in this stadium. KC's head coach Reid has just an 11-13 SU record in playoffs, thus Colt psyche edge. Indy also 4-0 vs the Chiefs all-time in playoffs. Are on a 10-1 SU run. Check Luck with 191 passing yards & 2 TDs before halftime in last week's win over Houston, while Mack's 148 rushing yards are an Indy playoff record. May approach '13's playoff scoring binge (45-44). I'm calling for the upset in this one. |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The insertion of frosh QB Lawrence in game 5 (2,933 passing yards, 65.5%, 27/4) resulted in a 473-97 point edge in Tigers' last 9 games (+127 points ATS). Check holding Notre Dame to its fewest-ever bowl points last week. These teams have been #1 & #2 all season, & rightly so. This contest has it all. Brilliant "O"s & "D"s; 2 of the very best QBs in the land, with a pair of head coaches who've seen it all, & done it all. First time that 2 undefeated teams have met for the College Playoff Title. The incomparable Crimson Tide of Alabama hold a 2-1 SU record over the Tigers of Clemson, but just 1-2 vs the points, including 0-2 ATS in their Title matches, which were of the epic variety. In '15, the Tigers (+6½) held 31-18 first down, & 550-473 yard edges, only to allow TDs on: 50-yard run, 53-yard pass, 51-yard pass, & a 95-yard kickoff return.   |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -6.5 | 16-15 | Loss | -102 | 30 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The additions of HC Nagy & LB Khalil Mack have turned the Bears completely around. And how about entering this on a 9-1 run, both SU & ATS, while ranking 1st in scoring defense. The Eagles were floundering, until Super Bowl hero Foles again saved the day: 4-1 as Philly's starting QB, and fresh off a superb 25 straight completion streak. However, he is now hurting (upper body), with his availability of utmost concern. The Bears have been there all year, & get my call. |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quick revenge shot for the Chargers, who were smothered by the Ravens just 2 weeks ago, as Baltimore put the clamps on Philip Rivers, not only with 2 sacks, but by also holding him without a TD pass for the first time all season. And he followed that up with a 1/2 showing vs the Broncos. Thus, a 1/4 mark, after entering with a 31/8 TD/INT ratio after week 14. Also a combined 731-474 yard deficit in Chargers' final 2 games, despite their most wins since 2009. Not so with the Ravens, who are peaking at the right time, behind the leadership of rookie QB Jackson, who is 6-1 SU as a starter, with their only miss coming in OT at Kansas City. Â |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Elliott didn't play in Cowboys' season-ending comeback win over the Giants, but Prescott sure did, with his 4th TD pass, along with the 2-point conversion, in the final 1:12. Seventh win in Dallas' last eight games, coming all the way back from 3-5 start, with an accompanying 6-1-1 ATS run. The Seahawks also smoking (9-3-2 LA, off a 2-3 start). Wilson a super 34/6, but he has been sacked 51 times. Many NFL experts are calling the Dallas Cowboys the weakest of the 12 teams in the playoffs. Seems a bit harsh after they held off the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. The Cowboys were 7-1 at home and 9-3 in the conference. The Seattle Seahawks were 4-4 on the road. Dallas gets revenge. |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans | 21-7 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have been superb, after horrible starts, as Texans became first team since '92 Chargers to win division, after an 0-3 start, while the Colts are one of only two teams to make the playoffs, after a 1-5 start. Indianapolis has scored 23+ points in 11 of its last 12 games, while Houston is on an 11-2 SU run, as well as a 9-2-2 ATS run. Houston is playing at home which will give them an advantage. Houston was 6-2 at home and 4-2 in the division. The Colts were only 4-4 on the road. |
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01-01-19 | Kentucky +7 v. Penn State | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units For the 4th time in program history, Kentucky is playing in a New Year's Day bowl. This year's highlight is the snapping of a 31-game losing streak to Florida, along with their first winning record in SEC play since that '77 season. RB Snell is their "go-to" guy (1,305 yards & 14 TDs), with QB Wilson a capable 68%, but just 11/8. Obviously, the Wildcats live via their defense, which has held 9 opponents to 20 points, or less (#19 & #6 in total & scoring defense). Last year, Kentucky lost in last 0:37 (failed 2-point try vs Northwestern) in Music City Bowl, so they will not be intimidated |
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01-01-19 | LSU v. Central Florida +7.5 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -105 | 167 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Upset of the Day For the 2nd straight year, the Knights of Central Florida have made it through the regular season unscathed. And for the second consecutive season have been rewarded with a New Year's Day bowl game against an SEC power. A year ago, it was the Peach Bowl, vs the 10-3 & #7 Tigers of Auburn, who were expected to put an end to this false challenger. But things don't always pan out, & didn't in that one, as UCF (+9½) turned a 20-13 deficit in the 3rd, into a 34-20 lead in the 4th, en route to the 34-27 upset. Knight QB Milton was just 16-of-35, but 242 passing yards (2/0), along with 116 rushing yards (8.9 ypr). Before entering that one, the Knights barely got by Memphis, 62-55, in their AAC title game. Ditto this year, as UM (+3) led 38-21 at intermission, with 336 rushing yards, only to go down 56-41, with 65 2nd half rushing yards. Check a 252-134 rushing yard edge over Cincinnati, which out rushed its other 11 opponents. The loss of Milton (knee) on Nov 23rd mattered little as backup QB Mack was 19-of-27 for 348 passing yards & 2/0, while rushing for 4 TDs, with Knights totaling 34 first downs, 350 rushing yards, & 348 passing yards. And they haven't missed a beat, with the replacement of HC Frost, for Heupel. Another "upset"? |
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01-01-19 | Iowa v. Mississippi State -7 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -106 | 166 h 22 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Year Iowa HC Ferentz is 7-8 SU & 9-6 ATS in bowls, but most recently 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS, with 4 wipe out losses in those 6. As usual, the Hawks again depend on their 7th-ranked defense, which more than offsets a 76th-ranked offense, that has topped 159 rushing yards only 4 times. QB Stanley has had his moments (23/9), but just 58.6 %. The Bulldogs finished at 4-1 SU & ATS, with a 160-49 point edge (+75½ points ATS). Fitzgerald is a bit of an heir-apparent to "do-all" QB Dak Prescott, with 1,615 rushing yards (15/7) & 1,018 yards (15 & 12 TDs). Thus, much attention to their offense, & deservedly so, but check ranking 10th, 6th, 3rd, & 1st in run, pass, total, & scoring defense, giving up just 12 TDs in 12 games. |
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 150 h 48 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game Play of the Day Aggie bowl games exceed simple excitement, with final scores of 52-28, 45-37, 21-27, 28-33, & 52-55 in their last 5. In last year's Belk, A&M led Wake 14-0, trailed 31-14, led 42-41, trailed 48-45, led 52-48, & lost 55-52, in last 2:18, with 636-614 yard deficit. This year was highlighted by its 74-72 seven OT win vs Lsu, behind 6 TD passes from Mond (no picks), who tied it on a 19-yard TD pass at the gun in regulation, along with 198 rushing yards from Williams, who ranks 3rd in the country with 1,524 yards (15 TDs). The Aggies are on a 13-6-2 ATS run, with one of their misses coming by a point in that Lsu contest. The Aggies are 5-2-1 ATS vs bowl teams this season |
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12-31-18 | Missouri -7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 33-38 | Loss | -112 | 146 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five double-digit win seasons in the last 12 years for the Tigers, & 9th bowl season in last 12 years, with 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS logs. Four turnovers killed 'em in last year's 33-16 Texas Bowl loss to Texas, with just 1 Lock TD toss, after entering with a nation-best 43 TD passes. He hasn't approached that standard this year (25/8), with an 839-yard drop from last year's 3,964 yards (10th in land; 19th this year). However, Tiger run defense, has come from 60th, to 23rd, holding 6 teams to double digit rushing yards. Oklahoma State's 98th ranked defense was of little help, allowing 37.6 points per game in its last 9 contests. Bucking such a proven bowl entity is frightening, indeed, but unless Gundy & Co figure a way to contain Tigers, I'll do just that. |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -5.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -106 | 143 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month Tech has been out rushed by 7 of their last 8 opponents, surrendering 465 & 492 rushing yards to Georgia Tech & Pitt. It is the exact opposite for the Bearcats, who've had the overland edge in 11-of-12 games (#14 run offense, #6 run defense). HCs Minter, Dantonio, Kelly & Jones had the 'Cats on a seemingly constant 10+ win run, only to have Tuberville gradually take them down the tube (4-8 in '16), before their transformation, under Fickell (from 4-8 to 10-2 SU, & from 100th & 96th in total offense & defense to 23rd & 7th this year). Ridder (2,359 passing yards, with 19 touchdowns and 4 interceptions), Warren (1,163 rushing yards, 17 TDs), & Lewis (1.4 yards per catch), along with that defense have 'Cats at +110 points ATS for the year. No doubt on this one. |
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12-30-18 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -13 | 24-27 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the crazy world that is the NFL, anything can happen, with the Cardinals a prime example this season, with 34-0, 45-10, & 45-10 wipe out losses followed by covers of 2, 5, & 17 points vs the Bears, the 49ers, & the Packers. Outside of the fact that they catch the Seahawks off their thrilling upset of the Chiefs, it just doesn't seem feasible. Seattle needs it, entering on a current 8-2-2 ATS run, with a 102-54 point edge in its last 3 home games. Cardinals on a 1-5 spread slide, with an 88-26 point deficit in their last 3 contests. |
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12-30-18 | Eagles -7 v. Redskins | 24-0 | Win | 102 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here they come. Does anyone want to play these guys in the playoffs? Having the reigning Super Bowl MVP back under center is just what this team needed. Won a classic vs the Texans last week, on that last-second field goal, after blowing a 13-point 4th quarter edge, with Foles simply superb. Check 471 passing yards & 4 TDs, in leading the Eagles to a 519-371 yard edge. You gotta hand it to Gruden & his players for hanging in there, after losing their top 2 QBs at such a crucial point in the year (3 if you count Sanchez). But it ends today. |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars v. Texans -6.5 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No doubt, the Texans will have one eye on the Patriot/Jet game, as they are tied with the Pats at 10-5. Shows what a healthy Watson can do, despite coming up just short in comeback effort at Philly, losing at the gun, after a pair of Deshaun TD passes in the last 4:41. The Jags & Marrone would love to find the magic from last year & knock one of their rivals out of the coveted first round bye. Doubt it, even though they dominated the Dolphins in Miami last week. Texans are 10-2 SU, as well as 8-2-2 ATS, while Jaguars are 2-9 SU, & 3-7-1 ATS. And the host is 8-3 ATS in Jag games. |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson -12.5 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Four the 4th time in as many years, the Tigers of Clemson have made it into the College Football Playoff. That's what regular season records of 13-0, 12-1, 12-1, & 13-0 will do for you. Dabo Swinney has now compiled a record of 85-11 over the last 7 years, along with a bowl record of 5-1, both SU & ATS, including the '16 upset of Alabama for the National Title. The insertion of frosh Lawrence at QB (2,606 yards, 65%, & 24 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions) has resulted in a 400-94 point edge in Tigers' last 8 games (+109½ points ATS). Not only that, but Etienne ranks 5th in the land with 1,463 rushing yards (8.3 yards per rush) & 21 TDs. And how about CU ranking in the top 9 in 9-of-10 major stat columns? |
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12-29-18 | Florida v. Michigan -6 | Top | 41-15 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game Play of the Day The Wolves were ranked 4th in the land, with a Final Four Playoffs spot a given, if they just took Ohio State in their season finale. Michigan went into that one on a 10-game winning streak by an average score of 39-13. But it wasn't to be, as the Buckeyes (+4) destroyed the Wolves, 62-39, with a 656-401 yard edge. And that vs a Michigan squad whose defense entered at 13.5 points per game, & 234.8 yard per game. Thus, from a playoff spot, to a lesser bowl, while plunging to #8 in the polls. This marks UM's 47th bowl, & 8th in the last 9 years (2-5 SU, & 2-4-1 ATS). No questioning the improvement under Harbaugh (38-14 SU) with the Wolverines finishing 4th, 1st, 3rd, & 1st in total defense, although they are just a 1-2 bowl proposition, spread wise. Opponents state that their devastating loss to the Buckeyes kills any focus or dedication for this contest. However, I remember in '15, when an identical 10-1 Michigan outfit was demolished, 42-13, also in its season finale vs the Buckeyes. Thus, a match with Florida in the Citrus Bowl. Did they care? As noted above, they must have, as they mauled the Gators, 41-7, as a field goal favorite, with a 503-273 yard edge. Mullen's arrival from Mississippi State, has turned Gator fortunes around, with a 6-1 start (5-1 ATS), before ending 3-2 (1-3 ATS), coming from 108th & 78th in scoring & rushing offense, to 25th & 26th, respectively, is a true improvement. But I just can't dismiss that '15 Wolverine bowl bounce back. |
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12-28-18 | Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 | 63-14 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This season has been nothing special for Auburn, with just a pair of 2-game winning streaks, never putting back-to-back covers together, with their lone ATS successes in their final 8 games coming vs a defenseless Ole Miss, & upstart Liberty. They rank an alien 69th in rushing offense (6th in '16, 25th in '17), while topping 147 rushing yards just twice (Alabama State & Liberty), while QB Stidham checks in at 77th in passing efficiency (13 touchdowns with 5 interceptions). Their opponents in this contest (Boilermakers of Purdue), are neither bowl novices (19th such affair), nor bowl constants (5th bowl in last 11 years, following a 10-of-11 bowl run under Joe Tiller). This one goes to the final gun. |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL -3 v. Wisconsin | 3-35 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit CFB Play of the Day Wisconsin has normally been a fine ATS play (9-5 each of last 2 years), they enter with a 3-9 spread log (-75½ points) however. Bowl-wise, this make it 24 bowls in 26 years. This marks the 'Canes' 40th bowl (19-20 SU), but their former "invincible" label no longer applies, with a current 1-6 SU & ATS run since the '09 Champs Sports. For UM, this is a "season of streaks": a 5-0 streak (2-2 ATS) followed by an 0-4 slide (0-4 ATS), & a much-needed 2-0 windup (18 & 16 point covers), with a 293-69 rushing yard edge over Pittsburgh in finale. QB Perry has done well down the stretch, sitting at 13 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, while RB Homer's 6.3 yards per rush have resulted in 969 yards. 'Canes 2nd-ranked passing defense places entire Badger load on Taylor. Don't be afraid to give the points. |
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12-27-18 | Duke v. Temple -3 | 56-27 | Loss | -117 | 74 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Owls of Temple have bid adieu to HC Geoff Collins (GaTech), who steered TU to a pair of bowls in his 2 years, at the helm, while compiling a 15-8 ATS record. As a matter of fact, the Owls are on an awesome 27-9 spread run. This makes it 4 straight bowl seasons for Temple, which seeks back-to-back bowl wins for the first time in school history. They are hurting at QB (Russo: 2,235 passing yards), & RB (Armstead: 1,098 yards, 13 TDs), but both are expected back for this one. WR Wright leads the nation in special-teams TDs (3). Duke comes into this one finishing the season on a 1-5 ATS run by 60 points |
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | 34-10 | Loss | -109 | 72 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 'Jackets' 335 rushing yard per game places them atop the rushing category, by a full 32 rushing yard per game edge over #2 Army. This has been the ongoing story since '08. So eleven years, with final rushing offensive rankings of #4 in '08, #2 in '09, #1 in #10, #2 in 11, #4 in '12, #6 in '13, #1 in '14, #8 in '15, #9 in '16, #5, in '17, & #1 in '18. Gophers of Minnesota play in their 20th bowl, & 15th in the last 19 years, losing 7 straight from '05 thru '14, before turning it around with a narrow 21-14 (-6) win over Central Michigan (TD & 2-point conversion in last 4:25 of the '15 Quick Lane); & a 17-12 (+9) upset of Washington State in the '16 Holiday, allowing just 1 TD, that in the last 0:19. This year's hopes depend on a running game led by frosh Ibrahim (936 yards, 7 TDs), as QBs Annexstad & Morgan have combined for just 16 TDs & 13 interceptions. The Gophers have cracked the 200-rushing yard barrier just twice all year, and own a negative 14 turn overs in comparison with the 'Jackets. Straight up winner has covered 11-of-12 Minnesota games. 'Jacket call. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Broncos came to the Bay Area 2 weeks ago, & gave up a 20-0 first half deficit they couldn't overcome. Because of that, no playoffs for Denver since they won Super Bowl 50 three years ago. Injuries finally caught up. Beat the Chargers & Steelers, and lost to the 49ers & Browns. Go figure. Oakland has lost 6 straight division games. Last week, Carr was 21-of-38, with a TD & no interceptions for 9th straight game (301 attempts): 9/0 in his last 5 games. Now 11+ Charger losses for the first time since '14. Call the upset. |
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12-23-18 | Rams -14 v. Cardinals | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Time for the Rams to turn it around. Seems strange to be saying that about an 11-3 team. But for all of their success, the fact is that they are on a 2-7-1 spread run, with just a 308-276 point edge. And they have a 45-29 point deficit the past 2 weeks. Goff: 2 picks in loss to the Eagles, & now just 27/13 for the year. Are in a battle with the Saints for home field advantage through the playoffs, so a return to earlier form is foremost in McVay's mind. Worst home start (1-6) for Cards, since '57, as the Chicago Cardinals, and doesn't get any better |
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12-23-18 | Texans +2.5 v. Eagles | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No, the Eagles are far from finished, with current 3-1 run taking them to within a game of the Cowboys. Foles did the job at the Rams (270 passing yards, 77.4%). That pushes the dog edge to 14-7 ATS in Philly games. Texans have won 10-of-11 SU, with accompanying 7-2-1 run. And they've covered 5 of their last 6 road games. Watson last week: 22-of-28 for 294 yards, & 2 TDs. |
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cowboys don't fool around. From a 5-0 SU/ATS run (+34½ points vs spread), to their first shutout loss in 15 years, 23-0, with only 4 catches for 32 yards from Cooper, a week after 217 & 3 TDs vs Philly. And note Dak coming from 455 passing yards to just 208. And a rushing "D" from 66 yards per game in their previous 5 games, to 179 at Indy. Six straight road losses for the Bucs, after shocking the Saints in their opener. Winston has now lost his last 11 road starts, & Tampa has been eliminated from the playoffs. Dallas bounce backer |
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12-23-18 | Bills v. Patriots -13 | 12-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thirteen straight home wins for the Pats, including playoffs, & have now won 48 of their last 54 home games. Didn't score a TD after their 3rd snap in Pittsburgh last week (63-yard Brady TD pass), with just 3 points in their final 8 drives, as 14 penalties for 106 yards (most since '14) did them in. Need a win, or a Miami loss, for 10th straight AFC East title. Bills are owned by this team & this player, as Brady is 29-3 SU vs Buffalo. Allen won for the 3rd time this year, when Bills are tied or behind, in the 4th. Still no contest |
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12-22-18 | Ravens +4.5 v. Chargers | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a win for Bolts at KC, with 2 TDs in final 3:49, plus the 2-pointer to win it. First time a team has won on a last-second 2-point conversion since the Vikings in '02. That snapped a 9-game losing streak vs the Chiefs. And they did it without Gordon. Ravens have rushed for over 200 yards 4-of-5 games with Jackson under center. First team since '79 Steelers to rush for 190+ yards 5 straight games. Baltimore took 4 of those 5. This could be a preview of a possible January match. Take the points. |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +1 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units Three straight bowl seasons for the Trojans of Troy, who are on a splendid 31-7 SU run, with HC Brown turning this former doormat into a power, serving notice with a tight 30-24 loss at Clemson, as 35-pt dogs, in '16; & an outright 24-21 win at Lsu, as 20½-pt dogs, in '17. And this year, they upset Nebraska, 24-19. They have a pair of 1,000-yd QBs, as Smith (1,349 yds) took over for an injured Barker in mid season. In Troy's 3 losses, the Trojans committed 4, 3, & 4 TOs. Stay clean, & this one is theirs. |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army -4.5 | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 41 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Army returns to the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl looking to add to its eight-game win streak when it faces Houston on Saturday, Dec. 22, at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. The Black Knights, whose seven bowl games have been all been decided by a touchdown or less, beat San Diego State by a touchdown in this bowl last year. The Cougars, making their program-best sixth straight bowl appearance, lost three of their final four games to miss out on the American Athletic Conference title game. Houston's beat-up defense will have its hands full with Army's triple option attack that is ranked second nationally with 296.3 rushing yards. Houston will be without four defensive line starters - All-American Ed Oliver, who announced he would skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft, and injured Jerard Carter, Payton Turner and Isaiah Chambers. The Cougars have already faced two of the country's top rushing teams in Navy and Memphis, allowing 344 and 401 rushing yards - respectively - during conference play. |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Thundering Herd of Marshall, this marks 6 bowl games under HC Doc Holliday, who, as of now, has never lost one of these classics: 5-0 SU & ATS! A quick glance at the above stats shows a 'Herd "D" that is allowing just 105 rushing yards per game. Right, 9th-best in the land; while USF ranks 123rd in that all important column. But can the 'Herd, & its 87th-ranked rushing "O" take full advantage? QB Green is a steady, if non-spectacular leader: 2,2 37 yards & 15/10. Pretty much along the lines of FSU's Barnett. Home game for Bulls, but can't ignore 'Herd's steady bowl successes. |
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12-19-18 | Ohio v. San Diego State +3 | 27-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a era where wide open passing attacks dominate college football headlines, this will be an old fashioned battle in the trenches. Ohio ranks eighth nationally in rushing offense with an average of 262.2 yards per game and rolled up 38 rushing touchdowns. The Bobcats will be going up against a San Diego State defense that ranks fourth nationally in rush defense behind only Michigan State, Texas A&M and Clemson allowing an average of 94.5 yards per game and 2.75 yards per attempt and has allowed only 14 rushing TDs. The underdog is on a 13-0-1 ATS run in San Diego State games, with 9-of-10 decided by a TD, or less, SU. Â |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB -2.5 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 70 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Blazers, this marks just their 3rd bowl game in history, but also marks their 2nd consecutive holiday trip, which is near miraculous, seeing that UAB disbanded its football program after the '14 season, following a combined 8-year record of 26-70. Last year's bowl resulted in a 41-6 loss to Ohio U in the Bahamas (249-99 rushing yard deficit), losing 20-0 in the first 17:24. However, their 8-4 regular season was remarkable, as 6 games were decided by 5 points or less SU. QB Erdely is their trigger, with 1,539 passing yards, but just a break-even 7/7. He didn't make it in Blazers' Cusa title win over Middle Tennessee, but note that Uab came from a 133-(-1) rushing yard deficit in their regular season match, to a 225-94 rushing yard edge in their title march. And no Erdley for that one, & he is still nursing that injured shoulder. By the way, check a 15-7-1 ATS log for Uab since its reinstating. |
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12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | 12-9 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Third straight road game for the Saints, who came up big for us last week in Tampa, with a 25-0 2nd half edge, & though Drew was only 1/1 (31/4 for the year), he was a nice 77.4%. Second straight division title for the Saints, as their defense came up big (4 sacks, & allowing only 81 2nd-half yards). Five straight losses for Panthers (SU & ATS), with McCaffrey their lone bright spot (2 more TDs & 101 total yards). That's 12 TDs in his last 7 games. New Orleans is on a 10-1 ATS run, so not about to call free-falling Panthers' number. |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks -3.5 v. 49ers | 23-26 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Great win for the 49ers, over a Bronco team with everything to play for, snapping a 3-game losing streak in the process. San Francisco is now 6-1 in December, under Shanahan, but also 1-9 vs the NFC West under Shanahan. Check TE Kittle with 7 grabs for 210 yards, including an 85-yd TD last week, the most for the Niners since T.O. in 2000. Seahawks are in off their Monday Nighter with the Vikings, but are on a 7-1-2 ATS run, & have beaten the Niners 10 straight. SanFran "D": 27+ points in 9-of-12. |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Colts | 0-23 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Huge playoff implications here. These 2 squads came up big last week, with the Colts at Houston & the Cowboys in OT over the champs. 'Boys can clinch an NFC East title with a win here, as they now have longest active winning streak in the NFL, with 5 straight. Check Dak with 455 passing yards & 3 TDs. Zeke 113 rushing yards & 79 yards receiving. Cooper: 217 receiving yards & 3 TDs. Dallas is 9-1-1 ATS as an AFC road dog of less than 8 points. Upset |
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12-16-18 | Titans v. Giants +1.5 | 17-0 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a night for Henry, in Titan rout of Tampa, with 238 rushing yards on 16 carries, including that 99-yard classic. He ended up with 4 TDs (3, 99, 16, 54 yards), tying franchise record held by Earl Campbell & Lorenz White. No player in the Super Bowl era rushed for 200+ yards, & 4+ TDs on less than 21 carries. Giants completely dominated decimated Redskins (up 40-0), & are on a 5-0 ATS run, while averaging 31.4 points per game. Another 170 rushing yards from Barkley on only 16 carries. Titans have a 72-17 point deficit in their L2 road games |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | 13-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Lions are in off their fewest points allowed since 2 14, in 17-3 win over the mighty Cards, although posting just 1 offensive TD ("pick-6"). Bills let another one get away in the 4th quarter vs the Jets. Over their past two games, the Bills have 48-30 first down, 376-138 rushing yard , & 783-423 total yard edges, but 21-17 & 27-23 losses to show for their troubles. Their 2nd ranked defense should be able to put the clamps on a Lion offense that is averaging 16.3 points per game in their last 7 games |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State -4 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game Play of the Day Fresno State has been a dream to their backers, as they are currently on a 19-6 spread run, while compiling a 22-6 SU run since Tedford took over as HC in '17. All he did was inherit a squad which was fresh off a 1-11 record in '16 (0-10 windup), as well as a 3-9 log in '15. He simply duplicated what he had done for Cal in '02, when he took over a 1-10 team, immediately turning it into a 7-5 outfit. Led by McMaryion (3,453 yards, 70%, 25/3), & WR Johnson (1,307 yards), Fresno is seeking its first-ever 12-win season. For the Sun Devils of Arizona State, this marks their 30th bowl game, standing at 14-14-1 SU, but on a current 4-9 SU & ATS run. |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Mean Green Eagles of North Texas, this makes 3 consecutive bowl seasons, & 4-of-5. QB Fine compares favorably, with 3,734 passing yards, 64.6%, & 27/5, with 942 yards (14 TDs) from RB Torrey, & WRs Bussey & Guyton at 15.0 & 14.0 yards per catch. Note that the Eagles are the only team in the land to out gain every opponent. Ag coaching change tightens it up. |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Seattle Seahawks saw any hopes of winning the NFC West evaporate when the division-rival Los Angeles Rams opened the season 8-0. The Seahawks' playoff chances also appeared to take a major hit after back-to-back losses to both Los Angeles teams, but they have bounced back and carry a three-game winning streak into tonight's contest against the visiting Minnesota Vikings. Seattle posted three-point victories over Green Bay and Carolina before routing San Francisco last week to vault into the fifth playoff spot in the NFC - one-half game ahead of Minnesota. Minnesota a horrible 0-7 ATS on the road on a Monday, while Seattle is 7-1 as a Monday single digit favorite. I'll back the squad which is currently on 7-1-2 run. |
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12-09-18 | Broncos -3 v. 49ers | 14-20 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Three straight wins for the Broncos. As long as Keenum doesn't throw a pick, they win. Another stellar performance from RB Lindsay: 157 yards (career-high), & 2 more TDs (6 & 65 yards). He now has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage: first undrafted rookie in franchise history to do that. First 3-game winning streak for Vance Joseph (+8 turn overs in those 3). Four straight seasons with 10+ losses for first time in Niner history, with a 3-32 record in last 35 games without Garoppolo. Broncos still alive in Wild Card chase |
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12-09-18 | Patriots v. Dolphins +9 | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pats have clinched a winning record for the 18th straight season. And have won 8 of their last 9 outings. What else is new? Brady: now 579 TD passes, tying him with Manning for most of all time. And try 250 wins for Belichick as Pats HC. Dolphins in off lucky win over Bills, although Tannehill did toss 3 TD passes. That's 8 straight home wins for Miami, with him at the controls. Host is on a 14-3-1 ATS run in Dolphin games. And another |
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12-09-18 | Colts v. Texans -4 | 24-21 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colts were at 34.2 points per game in 6 games, previous to 6-0 loss to the Jags, snapping their 5-game winning streak. Now must take on a Texan team which has won 9 straight, after an 0-3 start. Amazing. Were up 23-0 at the half vs the Browns, with Watson now at 11 TDs & just 2 picks in his last 5 games. Texans are also +54½ points in their last 6 games, & enjoy a 3-game lead over the Colts & Titans. Would you believe that the Colts are 0-10 ATS as a .500+ avenging road dog vs an opponent off 2 SU wins. |
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12-09-18 | Ravens v. Chiefs -6 | 24-27 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Three straight wins for the Ravens, on heels of 3-game slide, dominating the Falcons (366-131 total yards), holding Atlanta to 34 rushing yards, while sacking Ryan 3 times. Jackson only 125 passing yards, but another rushing TD in his first road start. Now just ½ game behind Pitt. KC in off big win, after releasing star RB Hunt. Mahomes: another 4 TD passes, & now at 41/10. Chiefs at 30+ points 10-of-12 games (26 & 27 points in other 2). KC is 5-2 ATS vs Baltimore, while the Ravens are 1-9 ATS non-division dogs of 6+ points. |
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12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Champs can breathe a sigh of relief after last-minute win vs the Giants. That's 9-of-10 vs the Giants. An impressive 5-minute game-winning drive by Wentz & Co to get that "W"Â Note that the Eagles are scoreless in the first quarter in 9 of their 11 games this season. McCoy's 3 picks killed the Redskins on Thanksgiving, but if they had called that "helmet-to-helmet" that Reed received, with 1:30 left, you never know. The dog is 15-4 ATS in Eagle contests while the 'Skins covered their previous road game by 16 points. |
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11-25-18 | Packers +3.5 v. Vikings | 17-24 | Loss | -120 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is just 9-15-1 SU in division games in his NFL career, including 2-7-1 SU and 2-8 ATS the last ten games. With the Packers currently the No. 9 seed in the NFL playoff picture, and the Vikings the No. 6 seed, this becomes do-or die time for Mr. Rodgers. Green Bay QB Rodgers is 42-15-1 SU and 38-20 ATS in his career in division games, going 17-4 SUATS in division games when coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS away. Â |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins v. Colts -9 | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 119 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Third straight home game for the Colts. Luck is lighting it up: 23-of-29 for 297 yards & 3 TDs vs the Titans (QB rating of 143.8). He is now an eye-popping 29/9. And check Hilton with 9 catches for 155 yards & 2 TDs. And the 210th regular-season win of Vinatieri's career: an NFL record, breaking George Blanda's record. It's all about home field advantage, as far as Miami is concerned. Home team is 7-1 & 13-3 ATS in Dolphin games. Thus Miami is 0-5 ATS away, by 49½ points, allowing 34.5 points per game in its last 4 road games. Any questions? |
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11-25-18 | Browns +3 v. Bengals | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Cincinnati minus 3, and is still minus 3. There is no love lost between these 2 intra-state rivals. There are a few teams which are in the mix for the most improved, with these Browns definitely one of those outfits. Sure, just a 3-6-1 mark, but the could easily read 7-3, with three 3-pt losses, & that opening day tie with the Steelers. Finally some stability at QB, with emergence if rookie Mayfield: 1,984 yards, 62%, & 13 touchdowns with 7 interceptions. Bengals are falling fast, with current 1-4 SU & ATS run, after opening at 4-1, as Dalton has thrown 10 picks, & wide receiver Green just week-to-week. |
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11-24-18 | Notre Dame -10.5 v. USC | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Just one more, & the Irish are in the playoffs. Book is back (23-of-37 for 292 passing yards vs Syracuse). Notre Dame has topped 30 points 7-of-8, & held a 300-yd rushing yard edge over Troy last year. Only 97 & 112 rushing yards for Trojans the L2 weeks, who are 3-11 ATS (1, 4, 1 point covers), & Daniels just 15 touchdown with 12 interceptions. |
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11-24-18 | South Carolina v. Clemson -26 | 35-56 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Two straight 1-point covers for Tigers, but still a 302-49 point edge in their L6 games (+110 points ATS), & in off holding Duke's 31-points per game offense to a pair of field goals. South Carolina's L5 lined games decided by 2, 3, 3, 4, & 4 points SU. Highly questionable rushing offense & defense, & won't stay in this one. Lay it. |
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11-24-18 | Auburn v. Alabama -24 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 94 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units That's right, a 10-10 tie at the half in 'Bama's 50-17 win over Citadel. Tagovailoa 16-of-22 last week, 340 passing yards, with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Now 2,865 yards with 31 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Tigers have a 615-254 point edge in their last 20 games, but were 99th in total offense, before rout of Liberty. All-out war, but 'Tide has no equal. A romper! |
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11-24-18 | Temple -30.5 v. Connecticut | 57-7 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Temple minus 29, and now minus 30.5. Owls are always one of the top plays on the board over the final few weeks of the season, Check 7-1, 5-3, 5-2, 7-0, & 5-1 spread windups since '13. This season, they were on 6-0 ATS run, before dropping 2 of their last 3 games, by just 2 & 3½ points! Sure, the weight on this one is heavy, but reason enough, not only due to the consistent line success of the Owls, but also the ineptitude of this UConn squad, which fields the WORST defense in the nation, including last week's 34 first downs, 415 rushing yards, & 657 this year marks of then 2-7 East Carolina. A romper! |
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11-24-18 | Pittsburgh +5.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -104 | 98 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit ACCC Game of the Week Panthers have clinched their first ACC title game berth, with 28-3 2nd half edge at Wake (470-285 yard edge). Have reached 200+ rushing yards 9 times this year, & are on 6-0 ATS run (+107½ points). Miami snapped 4-game slide, with a 28-0 windup last week. On 5-14 ATS run. Grab the points. |
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