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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-03-21 | Angels v. Rangers -103 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Rangers have won three straight games including a 4-1 win over the Angels on Monday. This followed a 1-13 run and Texas remains in last place in the American League West but they have some momentum rolling right now. The Rangers are 5-1 in their last six games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game while the Angels are 0-4 in their last four games against right-handed starters. Here, we play on home teams with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.50 or worse over his last 10 starts. This situation is 31-7 (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) Texas Rangers |
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08-02-21 | Giants -179 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our N.L. West Game of the Month. San Francisco improved to 65-39 following a pair of wins over the Astros on the weekend. The Giants remain three games ahead of the Dodgers in the National Leage West and have a great chance to extend that this week as they face the worst team in the National League. Arizona has lost two straight including a 13-0 loss to the Dodgers on Sunday. The Giants are 22-8 in their last 30 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the Diamondbacks are 11-55 in their last 66 games as an underdog. Here, we play against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher revenging two straight home losses vs opponent, off a loss by 10 runs or more to a division rival. This situation is 33-5 (86.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (957) San Francisco Giants |
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07-30-21 | Mariners v. Rangers +150 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Rangers snapped a 12-game losing streak with a 5-4 victory against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday before dropping the finale of the two-game series Wednesday. It has been a disappointing stretch as the Texas lineup has the only negative WAR in the majors in the second half and the Rangers are the only team with less than 10 home runs in the second half as well, with just 4. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game while is Texas is 37-23 in its last 60 home games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season. Here, we play against American League road teams with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season, after allowing seven runs or more in three straight games. This situation is 56-14 (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Texas Rangers |
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07-29-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +111 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 111 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Play. After winning the first game of this series 2-1, the Giants were shutout last night 8-0 and look to bounce back tonight. San Francisco is now two games ahead of the Dodgers in the National League West and can get a little breathing room with a win tonight. Johnny Cueto is 6-5 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 16 starts which is solid even with the rather high ERA. He has a 3.92 ERA in 23 starts against the Dodgers. The Giants are 21-6 in their last 27 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (958) San Francisco Giants |
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07-26-21 | Reds v. Cubs -126 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our N.L. Central Game of the Month. Chicago won on Sunday to take the series against Arizona and improved to 49-51 and has to deal with players possibly being dealt before the trade deadline. The Cubs are 14-3 in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record. The Reds are coming off a disappointing 3-6 homestand to fall 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Reds are 2-6 in their last eight games against right-handed starters. Here, we play against National League road teams hitting .250 or worse going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.7 or better, starting a pitcher who gave up one earned run or less in his last two outings. This situation is 60-28 (68.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Chicago Cubs |
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07-25-21 | White Sox +135 v. Brewers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 135 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We played on the White Sox last night and it resulted in a 6-1 loss which was the third straight loss. Milwaukee remains 6.5 games ahead of the Reds in the National League Central but faces a tough one tonight in Lance Lynn. Lynn is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 over 17 starts. The White Sox are 4-0 in their last four games during game three of a series while the Brewers are 2-5 in their last seven games as a home favorite. Here, we play against all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher after allowing one run or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight losses by four runs or more. This situation 33-21 (61.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (979) Chicago White Sox |
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07-24-21 | White Sox +114 v. Brewers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our Interleague Game of the Month. Milwaukee took the series opener on Friday with a 7-1 victory thanks to a six-run seventh inning. Chicago still leads the American League Central by nine games as it is not in danger of losing this division with every other team having a negative scoring differential. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last six games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game while the Brewers are 1-4 in their last five games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play on teams starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing, after three straight games where the bullpen gave up three or more earned runs. This situation is 51-21 (70.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (927) Chicago White Sox |
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07-23-21 | Tigers v. Royals -113 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our A.L. Central Game of the Month. The Tigers have been winners of all seven of their games since the All-Star break. Detroit is riding its first seven-game winning streak since 2016. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last four road games against teams with a losing record. The Royals just completed a two-game sweep in Milwaukee. Kansas City is just 17-31 on the road but a much more respectable 22-24 at home. The Royals are 6-0 in their last six games following an off day. Here, we play on American League home teams hitting .265 or worse going up against a team with a below avg bullpen with an ERA of 4.50 or higher, starting a pitcher who was hit for five or more runs in his last two outings. This situation is 31-10 (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (972) Kansas City Royals |
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07-04-21 | Red Sox v. A's -111 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Oakland is coming off a thrilling 7-6 win on Saturday in 12 innings and should be able to build off that heading into Sunday. It snapped an eight-game winning streak for Boston which still has a 4.5-game lead in the American League East. Oakland remains 2.5-games behind Houston in the American League West. The Red Sox are 0-5 in their last five road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Athletics are 23-7 in their last 30 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against road teams with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start, after two straight games where their bullpen blew a save. This situation is 143-73 (66.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (974) Oakland Athletics |
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06-15-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -118 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Toronto is coming off a loss to the Red Sox 2-1 on Monday to fall to 33-31 on the season. New York enters the game as losers of their last three games. Toronto has hit 100 combined home runs this season, most in the American League. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the club with 22 homers. The Blue Jays are 6-2 in their last eight games following a loss. The Yankees are 2-10 in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Here, we play against American League road teams with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season after allowing seven runs or more three straight games. This situation is 35-4 (89.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (916) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-14-21 | Tigers v. Royals -138 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Central Game of the Month. Both the Tigers and Royals have lost four straight games and Kansas City is back home where it is a respectable 16-15 on the season. The Tigers are 11-20 on the road and are in a bad spot here. The Royals are 6-1 in their last seven games as a favorite. The Tigers are 29-73 in their last 102 games as a road underdog. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.4 runs or fewer rpg on the season after scoring two runs or less two straight games. This situation is 48-14 77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (972) Kansas City Royals |
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06-08-21 | Mets -111 v. Orioles | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Mets are back home after a 3-3 west coast road trip and they are not great on the road at 14-18 but this is a great spot. The Orioles are 10-20 at home and scored 18 runs in their last game against the Indians. The Mets are 13-3 in their last 16 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The Orioles are 0-6 in their last six interleague games as an underdog. Here, we play on teams after allowing two runs or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring nine runs or more. This situation is 40-17 (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (971) New York Mets |
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05-19-21 | Giants v. Reds +107 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our National League Game of the Month. Cincinnati has dropped the first two games of this series with the Giants to fall to 19-21 on the season but it is in a good spot here. The Reds are 19-7 in their last 26 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. San Francisco has won three straight games to remain in first place in the National League West. The Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record. Here, we play on National League home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher scoring 5.0 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher with an ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 28-12 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-15-21 | Braves v. Brewers +109 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our National League Central Game of the Year. Milwaukee has lost two straight games including a 6-3 loss to the Braves last night. The Brewers are now three games behind St. Louis in the National League Central. The Brewers are 18-8 in their last 26 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Atlanta snapped a three-game slide with the win last night but it is still -18 in run differential which is worst in the division and fourth worst in the National League. The Braves are 2-6 in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on National League teams with an OBP of .300 or worse going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30, hitting .215 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 28-13 (68.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (954) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-14-21 | Cubs -128 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Chicago has lost three straight games following a five-game winning streak to fall five games behind St. Louis in the National League Central. The Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 interleague games against left-handed starters. Detroit has won four straight games but is still just 13-24 on the season and its -64 run differential remains by the far worst in baseball. The Tigers are 5-14 in their last 19 interleague home games against right-handed starters. Here, we play on road teams with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start going up against an American League opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.50 to 1.60 on the season. This situation is 84-39 (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (927) Chicago Cubs |
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05-13-21 | Indians v. Mariners +119 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a ply on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our Thursday Sweet Spot. Seattle has lost four straight games but the last two came against the Dodgers which is understandable. Cleveland has won three straight games and the pitching has been outstanding by allowing just five runs over that stretch. The Mariners are 6-1 in their last seven home games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against road teams batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 40-19 (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (972) Seattle Mariners |
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05-09-21 | Rays v. A's -106 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Oakland is coming off a pair of wins over Tampa Bay to improve to 21-14 on the season and it now has a 2.5-game lead in the American League West. The A's faced a right-handed starter for the first time in seven games, just the second time in 10 games and fourth in 15 contests and Oakland will see another lefty starter in the series finale. Tampa Bat had won five straight games prior to the two-game losing streak and is now 3.5-games out of first place in the American League East. The Rays are 1-5 in their last six games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against American League road teams hitting .260 or worse against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or better batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games. This situation is 41-10 (80.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (974) Oakland Athletics |
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05-04-21 | Braves v. Nationals +120 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Washington has won four straight games to move into first place in the National League East by a half game over the Phillies. The Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Atlanta has lost four straight games to fall two games out of first place in the division and they are now 5-9 on the road after getting swept in Toronto. The Braves are 1-5 in their last six games as a road favorite. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are getting outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more rpg on the season, after allowing two runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 49-16 (75.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (904) Washington Nationals |
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05-02-21 | Cubs v. Reds -141 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Cubs are coming off a 3-2 win yesterday but are still 12-15 on the season which includes a 4-8 record on the road. Chicago is 2-8 in its last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in its previous game. Cincinnati was on a 3-1 run prior to the loss on Saturday and is now 12-14. It is 8-6 at home and the Reds are 9-2 in their last 11 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 77-22 (77.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-30-21 | Cardinals +102 v. Pirates | Top | 7-3 | Win | 102 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Pittsburgh had a three-game winning streak snapped with a loss against Kansas City on Wednesday and the Pirates are now 12-12 on the season. St. Louis is coming off a series split against the Phillies following a win on Thursday to move back over .500 and continues to trail the Brewers by two games in the National League Central. The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The Pirates are 5-13 in their last 18 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against National League home teams hitting .250 or worse going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or better, with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games. This situation is 38-13 (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (901) St. Louis Cardinals |
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04-28-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +148 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Arizona has won three straight games and eight of its last nine to move to 12-11 overall and is now just 2.5 games out of first place in the National League West division. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. San Diego has lost two of three and five of their last eight games to go to 13-12 overall as the offense has struggled, averaging just 3.1 rpg over this stretch The Padres are 1-5 in their last six games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against road teams starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing, batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 38-16 (70.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-24-21 | Yankees v. Indians +107 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB American League Game of the Month. Cleveland has lost three straight games to move to 8-10 on the season and has fallen three games behind Kansas City in the American League Central. The Indians are allowing just 3.75 rpg at home and they are 7-2 in their last nine games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Yankees have avenged a 1-6 run with the first two wins in this series but the offense remains stagnate by averaging just 3.2 rpg over their last 10 games. The Yankees are 3-9 in their last 12 games against team with a losing record. Here, we play against American League road teams .260 hitting or worse going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or better, hitting .215 or worse over their last 10 games. This situation is 35-8 (81.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) Cleveland Indians |
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04-22-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox -165 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Boston is coming off a 6-3 to Toronto on Wednesday to fall to 12-7 on the season but still remains in first place in the American League East by two games over Tampa Bay. The Red Sox are +27 in run differential which is tops in the American League. The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last five series opening games. Seattle lost to the Dodgers 1-0 on Tuesday which snapped a two-game winning streak and a 5-1 run and the Mariners have now been overtaken by Oakland which has won 11 straight games. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight games with the total set at 11.0 or higher. Here, we play against American League road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season), after a combined score of two runs or less. This situation is 37-4 (90.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (912) Boston Red Sox |
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04-20-21 | Giants v. Phillies -149 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -149 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Favorite of the Month. We lost with the Phillies last night as they were shutout 2-0 but we are backing them against tonight as the offense has a chance to get rolling. They face Logan Webb who has a 4.76 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over two starts. San Francisco has won two in a row, both being shutouts and it has a tough matchup tonight going against Zack Wheeler. He has posted two quality outings in three starts and has allowed three runs or less in all of those games. The Giants are 3-8 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starters while the Phillies are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Here, we play road teams after allowing one run or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 67-30 (69.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-19-21 | Giants v. Phillies +100 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Phillies are coming off a win over St. Louis thanks to a two-hit shutout from Aaron Nola to snap a 2-6 skid after a great start to the season. They remain one game behind the Mets in the National League East while also sitting a game out of the Wild Card spot. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a winning record. The Giants are off to a surprising 9-6 start but are just +3 in run differential. The Giants are 1-5 in their last six road games against right-handed starters. Here, we play on National League home teams averaging 4.0 or fewer rpg on the season, after a combined score of two runs or less. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-18-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +116 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 116 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers have now won eight straight games to move to an MLB-best 13-2 on the season but we see some value today with former Cy Young winner Blake Snell who struggled in his last outing against the Pirates. The Padres were coming off a Friday night game and did not play most of their starters in the 2-0 loss on Saturday but they will be back to strength on Sunday as this heated rivalry continues. The Padres are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (912) San Diego Padres |
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04-17-21 | Mets v. Rockies +248 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot (Game One). Colorado has lost six straight games to fall to 3-10 on the season but all six of those losses were on the road. The Rockies are just 3-4 at home but are catching a great price based on their recent skid. The Rockies are 22-6 in their last 28 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. New York is coming off a sweep over the Phillies as the pitching allowed just four runs over that three-game sweep. The Mets are 1-6 in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Here, we play against favorites with a money line of -110 or higher off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings. This situation is 54-33 (62.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (986) Colorado Rockies |
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04-16-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -136 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Philadelphia has lost three straight games while scoring just four runs over that stretch. The Phillies are now 1-5 over their last six games following a 5-1 start but have good edge on the mound tonight at a favorable price. The Phillies are 11-2 in their last 13 games as a home favorite. St. Louis is 1-4 over its last five games after getting shutout at Washington on Wednesday to move to 6-6 as well. The Cardinals are 0-6 in their last six road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Here, we play on National League home teams averaging 4.0 or fewer rpg on the season, after two straight losses by four runs or more. This situation is 26-13 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-15-21 | Rockies +255 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our N.L. West Game of the Month. Colorado has lost five straight games to fall to 3-9 on the season and while it looks to avoid the series sweep against the Dodgers, the Rockies have a much better pitching matchup at a great price. The Dodgers have won five games in a row and their 10-2 record is the best in baseball which should not come as much of a surprise. They are the only undefeated home team in MLB but they are paying the price. Austin Gomber is 0-2 but has pitched well with a 2.89 ERA and is coming off a quality start in his last outing. Julio Urias has pitched similar with a 2.84 ERA and is now priced at his highest of the season. Here, we play against National League teams with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season, with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games. This situation is 35-14 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (959) Colorado Rockies |
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04-14-21 | Indians v. White Sox -111 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Central Game of the Month. The Indians are coming off a 2-0 win over Chicago as Shane Bieber tossed a shutout as he allowed just three hits and one walk while striking out 11. Cleveland is now 6-1 over its last seven games but is just 2-3 on the road. The Indians are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a road underdog. Chicago was picked to win the division and it has been a slow start as it has alternated wins and losses over its last six games. The White Sox are 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against American League road underdogs with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season, after a combined score of two runs or less. This situation is 36-6 (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (928) Chicago White Sox |
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04-11-21 | Nationals +148 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Washington is coming off a 9-5 loss to the Dodgers on Saturday which was its fourth straight loss to fall to 1-4 on the season. The Nationals did score five runs after getting shut out in their previous two games and the Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Dodgers have won seven of their last eight games and sit atop the MLB West Division with a 7-2 record. We are getting great value with Max Scherzer who is elite despite allowing four home runs in his first start of the season against the Braves. Scherzer is 5-4 lifetime against the Dodgers in 14 appearances (12 starts) and has a 2.76 ERA. Here, we play against National League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 averaging 5.5 or more rpg on the season, after scoring nine runs or more. This situation is 25-13 (65.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (959) Washington Nationals |
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04-10-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles +118 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our A.L. East Game of the Month. After opening the season 0-3, Boston has won four straight games including a 7-3 win over the Orioles on Friday. In what was largely a tightly contested game, the Red Sox were able to string together a couple of two-run innings in the sixth and seventh to put away the Orioles. Baltimore is also 4-3 as it has lost three of its last four games with the offense producing just nine runs over this stretch. Bruce Zimmerman produced a quality outing in his first start against Boston as he allowed just four hits and three runs in six innings. Garrett Richards struggled in his Boston debut as he allowed six runs in just two innings against the Orioles. Here, we play on home teams averaging 3.6 or fewer rpg going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better, after three straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base. This situation is 27-10 (73 percent) since 1997. 10* (928) Baltimore Orioles |
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04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves -119 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our N.L. East Game of the Month. After a 0-4 start, the Braves have won their last two games to get out of their slump. Braves are 7-2 in their last nine games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Philadelphia is off to a 5-1 start as the pitching has been outstanding, allowing three runs or less in those five wins, allowing an average of 1.6 rpg in those victories. The Phillies are 0-5 in their last five games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play on National League home teams averaging 4.0 or fewer rpg on the season, after a combined score of two runs or less. This situation is 29-9 (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) Atlanta Braves |
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04-08-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays -113 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Toronto heads home, well to their spring training facility in Florida, following a six-game roadtrip where it went 3-3 including a pair of losses in the last to games against the Rangers. Pitching has been solid for the most part with the exception of one game and for the season, the Blue Jays have a 3.12 ERA which is seventh best in baseball. This includes a 1.96 ERA out of the bullpen which is third best in the league. Los Angeles is off to a 4-2 start on its season opening homestand but now hits the road for the first time. The Angels went 10-19 away from home in 2020 and Los Angeles hit .248 as a team. Going back, the Angels are 7-26 in their last 33 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 while the Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. 10* (916) Toronto Blue Jays |
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04-07-21 | Dodgers v. A's +154 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 154 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our A.L. West Game of the Month. Oakland and Atlanta are the two remaining teams that have yet to record a win this season and we feel the Athletics are going to end their opening homestand with a win before hitting the road. They were expected to contend in the American League West but a 0-6 start has already put them in a hole. Pitching has been a disaster as they have allowed 8.3 rpg which is worst in baseball and while facing the Dodgers again is not a good thing, a turn around is possible here at a good price. Trevor Bauer will take the mound with just a 1-4 career record and 3.72 ERA in eight career starts against Oakland. He is winless in five career starts at Oakland. He struggled in his first start this season, allowing four runs in 6.1 innings against Colorado. Jesus Luzardo will look to improve upon his season-opening effort against the Astros when he faces the Dodgers for just the second time in his career. 10* (978) Oakland Athletics |
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04-06-21 | Brewers +102 v. Cubs | Top | 4-0 | Win | 102 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Central Game of the Month. Milwaukee lost its third straight game following a 5-3 loss against the Cubs on Monday to open this series. The Brewers were picked as a consensus favorite to win the National League Central although the Cardinals, Cubs and Reds were all in the wide open picture in the preseason odds. The Brewers collected only four hits, giving them a measly 10 over the three losses, including two to the Twins at home. Their three runs came on one swing, a home run by Omar Narvaez. Now is the time for the offense to open up against Adbert Alzolay who has been solid yet inconsistent with his command. The Cubs have won three straight games with an up and down offense. Freddy Peralta has come along with a quality slider and an improving changeup to win the fifth spot in the rotation and those two pitches are making him a potential breakout pitcher this season. 10* (909) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-05-21 | White Sox -116 v. Mariners | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Chicago opened the season with a 3-1 series loss against the Angels and it looks for a bounce back against Seattle on Monday. The White Sox are coming off a tough loss Sunday as they tied the game in the top of the ninth but lost on a three-run walk-off home run in the bottom of the inning. Carlos Rodon has made just 11 appearances over the past two seasons, in large part because of Tommy John surgery in May 2019 on his left elbow. He re-signed with the team and he earned a spot in the rotation by posting a 1.32 ERA in four spring training appearances. In 13.2 innings, he allowed two runs on nine hits with one walk and 16 strikeouts. Seattle has opened the season 2-1 and had Sunday off following the series win over San Francisco. Justus Sheffield (counters for the Mariners and while he was decent last season, his lone previous start against the White Sox in 2019 was not a good one, as he allowed six runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings. 10* (975) Chicago White Sox |
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04-04-21 | Astros v. A's -106 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Oakland is coming off another loss against the Astros and it is now 0-3 to start a season for the first time since the 1996 season. They have scored a total of seven runs through the first three games and allowed 26. The Houston offense has been on fire as it has scored at least eight runs in all three games but that will certainly not hold up in the short-term. Between that and the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season, Sean Manaea has pitched just 83.2 innings in the last two years, a total he wants to more than double in 2021 alone. He went 3-1 in the spring over 15.1 innings while not allowing a home run. Jose Urquidy had a solid start in his last start in the spring but he struggled for the most part with a 4.15 ERA over 14 innings. 10* (922) Oakland Athletics |
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04-03-21 | Twins +120 v. Brewers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Twins lost the season opener as they blew a 5-2 lead going into the ninth inning by allowing three runs and eventually losing in extra innings. Jose Berios gets the ball for the Twins and after a subpar 2020 season, looks to bounce back. After two All-Star seasons in 2018 and 2019, he averaged 94.5 mph on his fastball in 2020 and 93.1 in 2019, he hit the radar gun at 97 several times in spring training games. He is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in two career starts against the Brewers. The Brewers counter with Corbin Burnes, who went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA and finished sixth in 2020 National League Cy Young voting. That being said, this line is too low for a pitcher of that caliber which puts us on the other side based on that. 10* (977) Minnesota Twins |
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04-02-21 | White Sox +106 v. Angels | Top | 12-8 | Win | 106 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Chicago lost the opener of this series on Thursday 4-3 as the bullpen blew a 3-2 lead by allowing two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning. It was a tough loss as White Sox starter Lucas Giolito got a no-decision, though he gave up just two runs on two hits while striking out eight in 5.1 innings. Dallas Keuchel has had more success against the Angels than any other team, going 12-2 with a 3.36 ERA in 18 career games (17 starts). The Angels counter with Andrew Heaney who has had to deal with injuries and inconsistency. He struggled this spring with a 7.41 ERA in five starts over 17 innings. The 14 earned runs included four home runs allowed and the long ball has always been an issue. The White Sox were second in baseball last season with a .285 average against left-handed pitching. 10* (921) Chicago White Sox |
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04-01-21 | Astros v. A's -105 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Revenge Game of the Month. Revenge is on play on Opening Day for Oakland after Houston ended the Oakland season with a 3-1 series win in the AL Division Series. One difference between this season and last will be fans in attendance in Oakland and that series was played in Los Angeles. The Astros finished 19-21 against AL West Division opponents in 2020 and while contenders again for the division crown, there are a lot of holes. Not counting the playoff game, in which he did not get a decision, Chris Bassitt faced the Astros four times last season, going 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Overall, he was exceptional with a 2.29 ERA over 11 starts during the regular season. Zack Greinke faced Oakland three times in the 2020 regular season, going 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA. He was average last season, posting a 4.03 ERA over 12 starts in just 67 innings. 10* (984) Oakland Athletics |
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10-27-20 | Rays +126 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Rays stole Game Four but gave it back on Sunday as they allowed the Dodgers to jump out to a 3-0 lead after two innings. Tampa Bay actually outhit the Dodgers but could not get the clutch hit, going just 1-7 with runners in scoring position. We are expecting the Rays to extend the series and take it to a decisive Game Seven. This was the Game Two pitching matchup, and we can expect a similar result. The Rays jumped on Tony Gonsolin early and went ahead 5-0 to hold on for a 6-4 win. Gonsolin went just 1.1 innings in that start and the Dodgers will be in trouble with a similar outing. The Dodgers bullpen has not been shutting the Rays down as they have a 5.57 ERA in the World Series. Blake Snell no-hit the Dodgers for 4.2 innings in Game Two before running into trouble and he has the stuff to go much longer and needs to get into the sixth inning. Here, we play against any National League team that are averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better, in October games. This situation is 71-40 (64 percent) since 1997. 10* (961) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +150 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers threw away Game Four from us, literally, last night and allowed Tampa Bay to even the series at 2-2. This is a pitching rematch from Game One and while the Dodgers easily got that one, it could easily flip here. Tyler Glasnow is coming off his worst start of the postseason as while he allowed just three hits, he gave up six runs in large part because of six walks. He has been inconsistent this postseason, but he can deal and with what happened last night, he does not want to give that game right back. The Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw to the mound for the second time this series. In Game One, he threw six innings and held the Rays to a run on two hits and a walk. He also struck out eight batters. Now the bad news. He has struggled against teams in the postseason seeing him a second time. In subsequent postseason appearances, Kershaw has tossed 65.1 innings and has allowed 34 earned runs including 11 home runs for a 5.44 ERA. Here, we play on American League teams averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg going up against a National League starter with an ERA of 3.00 or better, after scoring eight runs or more. This situation is 31-11 (73.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-24-20 | Dodgers -160 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. This is a tough spot for Tampa Bay based on the starting pitching matchup. The Dodgers took a 2-1 series lead after taking two of three from the Rays top three aces and now they get to face the Rays bullpen game rather than one of those big three. Actually, those three Rays starters put up an 8.78 ERA in their three starts, and none made it out of the fifth inning so essentially, Tampa Bay has already had three bullpen games. Ryan Yarbrough will be asked to pitch the bulk of the early innings and he is in a very tough spot here against potent Dodgers lineup. Julio Urias last started on Oct. 14, nine days ago, where he lasted five innings and 101 pitches, which made him ready to pitch three scoreless innings to close out Game Four. He has given up only one earned run in 16 innings this postseason, he is fully rested, and he is in the perfect position to put the Dodgers a win away from a title. The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 while the Dodgers are 45-18 in their last 63 games following a win. 10* (957) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +147 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Tampa Bay was able to even up this series with a win in Game Two behind a solid pitching effort from Blake Snell. While the Dodgers seem to have the pitching edge in Game Three, that is not necessarily the case. Walker Buehler had another great season where he posted a 2.91 ERA but has just two wins as he was not able to go deep in games and that could hurt here with the Dodgers going to their bullpen early on Wednesday. While his last start against the Braves was great, his command has been off as he issued 11 walks in his first three postseason outings. Charlie Morton has had a career resurgence as since 2017, he is 47-18 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while striking out 10.6 batters per nine innings. His postseason record since then is 7-1. In this postseason alone Morton has given up one earned run and struck out 17 over 15.2 innings. He limits damage by keeping the ball in the yard as he has allowed only four home runs this season over 53.2 innings including none in the postseason. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better, in October games. This situation is 70-39 (64.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (956) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-21-20 | Rays +124 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 124 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We lost with the Rays last night but will back them tonight to get this series evened up. Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash was uncharacteristically lenient with the leash for his starter, granting Glasnow a season-high 112 pitches, even as he walked six batters. Tampa Bay turns to Blake Snell who has allowed just three runs over his last two starts. The Dodgers do hit righties better than lefties, which is a modest lift for Snell. The Dodgers are among the worst teams in baseball at making contact against curveballs and sliders from lefties in the strike zone. Tony Gonsolin counters for the Dodgers and he struggled in his lone postseason start as he allowed five runs in 4.1 innings against the Braves. He is pitching on two days rest after going two innings in Game Seven where he allowed two runs while throwing 41 pitches. Here, we play against teams averaging 5.0 rpg going up against an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better, after a win by four runs or more. This situation is 72-39 (64.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (953) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-20-20 | Rays +161 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Tampa Bay nearly lost a 3-1 series lead but took Game Seven of the ALCS while the Dodgers came back from a 3-1 series deficit with three straight wins to make their trips to the World Series. Tyler Glasnow went 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA in the regular season and is 2-1 with a 4.66 ERA in four postseason starts. He is coming off his worst outing of the postseason, allowing four runs and striking out just five over six innings against the Astros in Game Four of the ALCS. He struck out 91 batters in 57.1 innings in the regular season, and the Rays were 9-2 in his 11 starts. Clayton Kershaw will be on regular rest for Game One. In his NLCS Game start start, pushed back two days because of back spasms, he allowed one run over the first five innings but was charged with four runs after allowing three runs in the sixth inning. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or more, in October games. This situation is 69-39 (63.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -148 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. It all comes down to Game Seven in the National League Championship Series as the Dodgers have won the last two games to stay alive. After fending off elimination twice already, history is on the Dodgers side to complete the comeback. Of the 17 teams to force a Game Seven after trailing, 3-1, in a best-of-seven series, 13 have gone on to win that last game. Ian Anderson goes for the Braves, making this his second start in the series. The Dodgers did not score off Anderson in four innings in Game Two, but they walked five times and ran his pitch count to 85. Dave Roberts would not commit to a starter after Game Six, but he did say Tony Gonsolin would take down a good bit of the innings. With starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias and Dustin May available, there could be an opener. The Dodgers are 70-36 against the money line in their last 106 games as a favorite of -125 to -175. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-17-20 | Astros v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Astros came through for us yesterday, but we are going the other way Saturday. After another defeat filled with pitching woes, questionable managerial decisions and defensive mistakes that would have seemed improbable just three days ago for the best record in the American League during the regular season, the Rays are also one loss away from matching the worst playoff collapse in 116 years of postseason baseball. Charlie Morton gets the ball for Tampa Bay and he is the pitcher you want in this spot. He pitched two seasons and won a World Series ring with the Astros before joining Tampa Bay last year. He has allowed just one run over 10 innings in his two postseason starts. Lance McCullers counters for Houston and he is coming off a decent outing, but the long ball has been an issue as he has allowed five home runs in his two postseason starts. The Astros are 2-11 in their last 13 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the Rays are 21-5 in their last 26 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (908) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-16-20 | Astros +126 v. Rays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 126 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. After dropping the first three games of this series, Houston has won the last two to get back into it and winning the whole thing is not on its side based on history, momentum has clearly shifted. After a lackluster offensive regular season (.264 average with a 92 OPS+ and five homers), Carlos Correa is now hitting .342/.457/.816 with six homers in the playoffs. The pitching matchup is the same as Game One with Blake Snell going for the Rays and Framber Valdez getting the ball for the Astros. Valdez, who has pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 18 postseason innings this year is on full rest following a great start against Tampa Bay, but his offense could not back him up. Snell was decent as well, but he has allowed four home runs over his last two postseason starts and he has not made it through six innings in all of his 14 starts this season. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season, after scoring and allowing five runs or less last four games. This situation is 31-18 (63.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (901) Houston Astros |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves +205 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 205 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers came through for us last night in a record setting way with an 11-run first inning, but the Braves are in a good position to bounce back from their first postseason loss. Only 25 percent of teams that fell behind 2-0 in a best-of-seven series and won Game Three have come all the way back to win the series, and none of the last 17 did it. Clayton Kershaw will get the start after being scratched from Game Two because of back spasms. He had a solid season, but the Braves present a problem. He had the highest first-pitch strike percentage (69.7 percent) of any pitcher in baseball in the regular season but the Braves .788 slugging percentage on the first pitch was the best in MLB. Additionally, he thrives with his breaking ball but faces a Braves team whose .429 slugging percentage against breaking balls was the highest in MLB this year. Atlanta pitching has struggled over the last 12 innings, allowing 22 runs but the bullpen is still in decent shape. Starter Bryse Wilson allowed just one run in three starts and if he can get through four innings, that will be a win for the Braves and the bullpen. Here, we play on teams after allowing 12 runs or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more two straight games. This situation is 50-28 (64.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Atlanta Braves |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -180 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Braves came through for us last night but came close to blowing a 7-0 lead and the Dodgers, despite the loss, carry momentum into Wednesday. Los Angeles needs this game to avoid a 3-0 deficit and it has a significant pitching advantage tonight. The Dodgers have lost back-to-back games only five times all season and are 4-0 following the first four, winning those games by a combined score of 29-12. The Dodgers late offensive awakening after being limited to a single run in the first 15 innings of this series could be a confidence-builder. Julio Urias gets the ball for Los Angeles and he has been solid with a 2.86 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This is his first postseason start and he has allowed one unearned run with 11 strikeouts in eight innings in the postseason. Kyle Wright threw six scoreless innings against the Marlins in the NLDS but had a 5.21 ERA in eight starts in the regular season. The Dodgers are 48-19 in their last 67 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (973) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-13-20 | Braves +156 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 156 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. We won with the Braves last night as the problems with Walker Buehler were on full display. He has allowed only four runs in 17 innings since returning from the injured list with a blister that originally began in his right index finger, but he has yet to complete six innings during that stretch. Last night messed up the whole rotation as Dustin May had to come in for two innings so he is out of the equation for at least tonight. Clayton Kershaw has been scratched and Tony Gonsolin will take his spot. He went 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in nine appearances this season, including eight starts so it is not a huge drop-off. However, this is the postseason and a must win so this is the most pressure he has seen and the Braves come in with a lot of confidence and momentum after the four-run ninth inning on Monday. Ian Anderson is young, but he has already shown why he was a first-round draft pick just three years ago. He has worked 11.2 scoreless innings through his first two career postseason starts and has posted a 0.93 ERA over his last five starts. He has been an underdog just once and that was against the Yankees where he carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg after allowing two runs or less in two straight games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 156-91 (63.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (969) Atlanta Braves |
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10-12-20 | Braves +128 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 128 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Both Atlanta and Los Angeles cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs with neither losing a game. The Dodgers outscored opponents 30-11 while the Braves outscored opponents 24-5 which included four shutouts and pitching rules this time of year. The Dodgers boast a deep and powerful lineup that led baseball in runs scored, but the Atlanta Braves scored just one fewer time than Los Angeles this season. Max Fried is coming off his worst outing of the season as he allowed four runs in four innings, but the offense bailed him out in a 9-5 victory. The Braves are 12-1 in his 13 starts where he is a perfect 7-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Walker Buehler had a solid season as well, but he has struggled with command in his two postseason starts. He has not gone deep in games and the Braves have the offense that can get to him and the bullpen. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better, in October games. This situation is 62-32 (66 percent) since 1997. 10* (965) Atlanta Braves |
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10-11-20 | Astros +134 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Rays finished the regular season with the best record in the American League, but it took them five games and a late home run to take out the Yankees in the ALDS. Houston finished the 60-game season an underwhelming 14th in runs scored, 16th in OPS, and 19th in home runs. However, the Astros awoke in the ALDS to post 33 runs in a lopsided four-game series with the A's. They are peaking at the right time and they bring in a potent right-handed lineup which is not great news for the Rays and lefty Blake Snell who allowed four runs on six hits in five innings which included three home runs allowed, against the powerful right-handed lineup of the Yankees in his lone ALDS appearance. Framber Valdez gets the Game One start after posting a 1.42 ERA over his past four outings, including a pair of postseason gems. The Houston pitching has been up and down, but the offense has come back to life and it gets a great matchup in this opening game. Here, we play against American League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70, after a combined score of three runs or less. This situation is 24-10 (70.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (961) Houston Astros |
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10-09-20 | Yankees v. Rays +142 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 142 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. It all comes down to Game Five for the team that was expected to win the American League and the team that finished with the best record in the American League. New York began the series with a 9-3 victory but followed it up with an 8-4 loss on Tuesday and a 7-5 defeat Wednesday when its starting pitching plans faltered. They are able to get Gerrit Cole back on the mound tonight but is coming off an average start in Game One where he allowed three runs in six innings. Tyler Glasnow is pitching on two days of rest, but it is not necessarily a bad thing. If Glasnow is used in an opener role, it is possible Blake Snell could follow with the hopes the Rays can get the lead and hand it to high-leverage relievers Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson and Pete Fairbanks, who were not used Thursday. The Rays are 11-2 in his 13 starts including 10 straight wins. The Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (934) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-08-20 | Dodgers v. Padres +160 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Padres nearly rallied on Wednesday as they scored two runs in the ninth inning and loaded the bases before just falling short. Instead of potentially going for a series lead Thursday, they are now trying to save their season. The Dodgers have won eight straight games going back to the regular season and are a win away from going to their fourth NLCS in the last five years. The Padres will go with a bullpen game Thursday, opening with Adrian Morejon. He did make four starts this season and did not make it past three innings in any of those so it will be up to the bullpen to keep the San Diego season alive. The bullpen has gone 31 innings during the postseason and has posted a 2.90 ERA. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts waited to name a starter until Thursday afternoon, and he has chosen Dustin May. He threw two scoreless innings of relief in Game One on Tuesday, so he probably will not be asked to pitch too deep into this one. He had a solid regular season but his 4.62 FIP and 3.98 xFIP suggest he overachieved by quite a bit. 10* (928) San Diego Padres |
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10-07-20 | Padres +166 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Los Angeles took Game One of this series despite having just four hits as it benefitted from 10 walks in the 5-1 victory. The Dodgers were held hitless through five innings of Game One, though they did score a run in the fifth on two walks and a throwing error. The offense has struggled as Los Angeles has a team batting average of .186 this postseason and the pitching has bailed it out. Clayton Kershaw gets the ball for the Dodgers and while he out up a gem in his first postseason start, he has been known for some playoff disasters. The Brewers were unable to get anything going but that offense was bad all season and the San Diego offense is one of the best in baseball and is by far the strongest lineup in Padres history. Kershaw is all about fastball or slider on the first pitch and the Padres had the fourth-lowest chase rate in baseball, behind three playoff teams in New York, Los Angeles and Oakland. Zach Davies struggled in his first postseason start but he has been solid as he allowed three runs or less in all of hi 12 regular season starts. Here, we play against teams after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs going up against an opponent after a game where the bullpen threw seven or more innings. This situation is 30-12 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (919) San Diego Padres |
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10-06-20 | Marlins v. Braves -198 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The upstart Marlins will have their work cut out for them in this series and it starts right away in Game One. Miami surprised the Cubs with a two-game sweep led by solid pitching, but Atlanta is a bigger challenge on the offensive end. The second-seeded Braves did not surrender a run in their two-game sweep of Cincinnati, in 22 innings, no less. Max Fried gets the ball for the Braves after he followed up a perfect 7-0 record in the regular season by scattering six hits over seven scoreless innings in a no-decision in Game One of the NL wild-card series on Wednesday. Overall, he posted a 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 12 starts, 11 of which Atlanta won. The only loss he allowed just three runs, but the Braves bullpen blew it which was an anomaly. The Braves posted a combined ERA of 3.31, second best in the National League. The Marlins had a bullpen ERA of 5.50, the third worst in the National League. Sandy Alcantara counters for Miami and he is coming off a solid start against the Cubs but he has been inconsistent with his command. Here, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season and averaging 4.7 or more rpg going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 56-7 (88.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Atlanta Braves |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +135 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Yankees and Rays both swept their Wild Card Series over the Indians and Blue Jays, respectively. New York comes in as the road favorite behind the arm of Gerrit Cole who was dominant in his first playoff appearance. The Rays finished with the bet record in the American League and Tampa Bay dominated the season series, beating the Yankees in eight out of ten games. While Cole dominated the Rays last season in the ALDS, he struggled against them this season, posting a 4.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in three starts, covering 16.1 innings, two of those resulting in losses. Blake Snell pitched Game One against Toronto when he allowed one hit and struck out nine in 5.2 scoreless innings. He was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA in the regular season and allowed three runs on four hits in eight innings during two starts against the Yankees. The Rays are 10-2 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Here, we play against favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 after having won two of their last three games going up against an opponent after having won eight or more of their last 10 games. This situation is 52-34 (60.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Tampa Bay Rays |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -151 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Padres are on the brink of elimination following a 7-4 loss on Wednesday as Chris Paddack got lit up for six runs on eight hits in just 2.1 innings. San Diego got hit with a pair of injuries in their rotation and they are hoping Zach Davies can save their season. He is coming off an excellent season as he went 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA over 12 starts. He allowed three runs or less in all of those starts while allowing two runs or less in seven of those. The Padres were forced to use seven relievers for 6.2 innings Wednesday, so Davies needs to go deep. The ageless Adam Wainwright takes the hill for the Cardinals and he had a solid season as well, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 10 starts. He is 1-4 when pitching in San Diego in six appearances (five starts) with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and .229 BAA. The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play on National League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season and are hitting .230 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 39-8 (83 percent) since 1997. 10* (968) San Diego Padres |
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09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -156 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -156 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Tuesday Afternoon Dominator. Minnesota has lost a Major League record 16 consecutive postseason games but that is pretty meaningless especially since its last playoff game was three years ago. Houston has much more playoff experience but is has been a down year for the Astros as they finished with a losing record after losing their final three games over the weekend. Minnesota won the American League Central despite losing two of its final three games of the regular season. Houston went just 9-21 on the road while Minnesota went 24-7 at home this season. Kenta Maeda gets the ball for the opener and he has been outstanding in his first year with the Twins. He went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 66.2 innings, leading the majors with a 0.75 WHIP while limiting opposing hitters to a .168 batting average. He allowed three runs or less in all 11 of his starts. The Astros hit just .228/.288/.383 as a team in September, averaging 3.8 rpg in the process. Zack Greinke started the season strong with a 1.84 ERA in first five starts before tailing off in the second half as he posted a 5.73 ERA in final seven starts. He made five starts in the postseason last year and went 0-2 with a 4.68 ERA. The Astros are 2-10 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starters while the Twins are 17-5 in their last 22 home games against right-handed starters. 10* (934) Minnesota Twins |
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09-25-20 | Astros -174 v. Rangers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -174 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Houston needs one win over the weekend to clinch a playoff spot. The Astros opened tis series with a 12-4 win over the Rangers last night as the offense exploded for the first time in a while. Jose Urquidy has a 2.78 ERA on the season, and he has posted three consecutive quality starts, going 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA during that stretch with 10 strikeouts against five walks and a .490 OPS allowed over 19 innings. The Rangers have been out of it for a while now and they own the worst record in the American League at 19-38. This will mark the fifth start and eighth appearance of the season for Kyle Cody, who limited the Astros to one run on four hits and two walks with one strikeout over three innings on Sept. 15. He has been pretty solid, but he does not go deep in games which is bad with the Rangers bullpen possessing a 4.72 ERA. Here, we play against American League underdogs of +150 or more with a team batting average of .260 or worse after allowing seven runs or more three straight games. This situation is 54-8 (87.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (913) Houston Astros |
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09-23-20 | Cardinals -125 v. Royals | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We won with St. Louis last night and we will be backing the Cardinals again tonight in what is another big game. They are a game over .500 and are sitting in second place in the National League Central which is an automatic playoff spot this season. St. Louis is a game ahead of Milwaukee and they will play a four-game series which will determine who moves into the postseason and who could likely be left out. Carlos Martinez allowed five runs, though only one was earned, in his last start against Pittsburgh. He will be facing the Royals for the first time this season. For his career, he is 1-0 with a 1.02 ERA against Kansas City, allowing two earned runs on 16 hits in 17.2 innings. Danny Duffy counters for the Royals and he has been hit or miss this season. He has really struggled of late with a 7.04 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over his last three starts, covering just 15.1 innings. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 batting .190 or worse over their last five games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.00 the last five games. This situation is 53-16 (76.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (925) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-22-20 | Cardinals -110 v. Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. St. Louis lost the opener of this series 4-1 on Monday which snapped a four-game winning streak. The Cardinals are a game over .500 and are one of three teams vying for two playoff spots and those teams are separated by just one game so every game is huge in this final week of the regular season. They have been able to adjust as the Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven games during Game Two of a series. The Royals are 10 games under .500 and are just playing out the season meaning a lot of young players are getting looks. The Royals are 2-6 in their last eight Interleague games against teams with a winning record. Austin Gomber gets the ball for St. Louis and he has been solid with a 2.37 ERA over 19 innings which includes two starts. He likely will not go deep but will hand off to a St. Louis bullpen that has been solid of late. Brady Singer is coming off a pair of impressive starts, but he has a 6.75 ERA in three home starts. 10* (969) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-21-20 | Astros -134 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Houston is coming off a 4-2 homestand including wins in two straight games to pretty much lock up a playoff spot. The Mariners are four games behind the Astros for second place in the American League West. Since the Astros already have clinched the season series against Seattle it is actually a five-game deficit as Houston owns the tiebreaker. Houston is 24-2 over the last 26 meetings and it send Lance McCullers to the hill to get a playoff clinching win here. He is coming off a great outing where he allowed no runs on two hits and no walks over seven innings. He is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against Seattle. Marco Gonzales counters for the Mariners and he is coming off a rough outing where he allowed five runs in six innings where he allowed two home runs. He has struggled against the Astros, going 0-5 with a 7.22 ERA in eight career appearances, including seven starts. Here, we play against underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. This situation is 63-14 81.8 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (919) Houston Astros |
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09-20-20 | Rangers v. Angels -134 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Angeles are keeping their slim layoff hopes alive after winning their third straight game on Saturday. They are now three and a half games behind Houston and will likely have to win out with seven games left. Los Angeles is 11-5 since September 3rd. The Rangers have the worst record in the American League at 18-34 following their third straight loss. They send Kyle Cody to the hill who has a solid 1.42 ERA through three starts but he is coming off Tommy John surgery and he is not being stretched out for good reason. Julio Teheran counters for the Angels and he has had a tough go at it but that is keeping this number in check. Here, we play against teams averaging 3.6 or fewer rpg going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.35 to 1.45 on the season. This situation is 39-14 (73.6percent) since 1997. 10* (980) Los Angeles Angels |
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09-19-20 | Twins -123 v. Cubs | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Following a 1-0 win last night in the series opener, Chicago has won five straight games to remain 5.5 games ahead of the Cardinals in the National League Central. The Twins have dropped two in a row but are still within striking distance of the White Sox in the American League Central as they are three games back. Alec Mills gets the ball for Chicago and he is coming off a no-hitter in his last outing which puts him in a tough spot to follow up a performance like that. Minnesota turns to Michael Pineda who has been solid through three starts with a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 17.2 innings. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games going up against an opponent with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 46-13 (78 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (927) Minnesota Twins |
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09-18-20 | White Sox v. Reds -113 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Sweet Spot. Chicago has the best record in the American League and clinched a playoff spot, for the first time since 2008, with Thursday's 4-3 win over Minnesota. While the White Sox are headed to the postseason, the Reds finally are playing like the playoff team they expected to be. They have won five straight games to move into second place in the National League Central which would mean a playoff spot in the extended postseason. Jonathan Stiever is set for his second career start for the White Sox. He allowed a run and two hits while striking out three and walking two in just 3.2 innings in his major-league debut on Sunday. The Reds have still not named a starting pitcher as of late Friday morning as they are debating between Tejay Antone and Tyler Mahle. Here, we play against teams when the money line is +125 to -125 off a win against a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (958) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-17-20 | Mets v. Phillies -117 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with the Phillies on Tuesday as they snapped a four-game losing streak, but they gave it back last night in a 5-4 loss. They are now back to .500 on the season and trail the Braves by four games in the National League East. They are still in good shape to clinch a Wild Card berth with 12 games left. The Mets will need a huge push as they are five games under .500 and would have to pass six teams in order to claim a Wild Card spot. Philadelphia will turn to Aaron Nola who is 5-3 with a 2.40 ERA in nine starts this season. Nola is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA against the Mets this season. Seth Lugo counters for the Mets and he has been solid with a 2.63 ERA through four starts, but he has made it past five innings only once. Here, we play on home teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg and batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, going up against a National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 52-20 (72.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-16-20 | Blue Jays +226 v. Yankees | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Blue Jays were hammered on Tuesday 20-6 and fell into third place in the American League East but still remain in one of the two Wild Card spots with 13 games remaining. There is little room for breathing however as five teams are right in contention for the two spots. Toronto is coming off the fourth instance of allowing 20 runs in team history and while the Blue Jays are 19-10 in their last 29 games, they have been outscored 45-9 in their last three defeats. The Yankees have won six straight games and are heavily favored with Gerrit Cole taking the hill. He is coming off a seven-inning complete game, but he has been rather inconsistent, and the Yankees are just 6-4 in his 10 starts. Tanner Roark counters for Toronto and while his numbers are everywhere, Toronto is 6-2 in his eight starts. Here, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after a loss against opponent after 6 or more consecutive wins. This situation is 27-19 (58.7 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (963) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies +118 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 118 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Phillies have lost three straight games and now trail the Braves by four games in the National League East. More importantly, they are just a game and a half behind Miami for second place which carries the additional playoff spot in this shortened season. The Mets are favored here for no reason as they are five games under .500 and send Rick Porcello to the hill who has had a horrible season. They are 2-7 in his nine starts and he brings in a 6.07 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. He has a 4.50 ERA in two starts against the Phillies this season. Jake Arrieta has not been much better with his 5.54 ERA and 1.49 WHIP but brings value at home where he has pitched well with the exception of one bad outing against the Braves. He allowed two runs in seven innings in his lone start against the Mets this season. 10* (912) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-11-20 | Angels v. Rockies -130 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Rockies have lost three straight games after getting swept by the Padres, but they return home where they look to get back in the postseason race. The Angels are nine games under .500 and are -20 in scoring differential on the season. Colorado hands the ball to German Marquez who has had a solid season despite his 4.58 overall ERA. He has two poor starts this season which has inflated his numbers, but he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his other seven starts. He is coming off a great start against the Dodgers where he allowed just two runs on five hits over seven innings. Griffin Canning, 0-3 with a 4.54 ERA in eight starts, will be on the mound and he has made it out of the fifth inning in only two of those eight outings. The Angels are 5-16 in their last 21 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while the Rockies are 9-3 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* (922) Colorado Rockies |
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09-09-20 | Reds +142 v. Cubs | Top | 3-0 | Win | 142 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We won with the Cubs last night but will be backing the Reds tonight with great value. Cincinnati has dropped two straight games to fall 6.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. Chicago has won two straight games to remain three games in front of the Cardinals in the division. Trevor Bauer has been solid this season as he has allowed one run or less in five of his seven starts. Three of his four road starts have been quality outings and for his career, Bauer is 4-1 with a 1.41 ERA in five starts against the Cubs. Yu Darvish has become a serious Cy Young contender in the National League as he has yielded five runs and struck out 58 over 46 innings to win seven straight starts for the first time in his career. Here, we play against National League home teams that are hitting .255 or worse on the season and batting .200 or worse over their last five games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70. this situation is 29-9 (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (917) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-08-20 | Reds v. Cubs -101 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Chicago lost three of five fames against the Cardinals and lost a little space in the division. Chicago enters the game with a 2.5-game lead over the second-place Cardinals, a 4.5-game edge over the third-place Brewers and a 5.5-game advantage over the fourth-place Reds. Cincinnati split its weekend series with the Pirates and has now lost five of its last eight games. Tyler Mahle has had a decent start to the season but has posted a 4.32 ERA over his last three starts. Alec Mills has not looked sharp over his last two starts but he is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in six games against the Reds. Cincinnati is 11-25 in its last 36 games after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games while Chicago is 25-6 in its last 31 home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Chicago Cubs |
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09-05-20 | Rockies +175 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 175 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers took the opener of this series with a 10-6 victory on Friday to make it six straight wins and improve to an MLB best 30-10. The Rockies have dropped four of their five to fall two games under .500. The contrarian play is on Colorado as we see a ton of value. German Marquez gets the ball for the Rockies and he has been lit up for a 10.13 ERA over his last three starts after posting a 2.25 ERA over his first five outings. In eight career starts against the Dodgers, he has a 2.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP so the confidence will be back. Tony Gonsolin counters for Los Angeles and while he has been solid, he has not done far in games and the Dodgers bullpen is coming off a rough night. Here, we play against teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, after a game where the bullpen was hit for four or more earned runs. This situation is 52-27 (65.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (927) Colorado Rockies |
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09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -143 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Indians, who have both the White Sox and Twins within a game-and-a-half of their division lead, have won two in a row and 13 of their last 18 games heading into the opener of their seven-game homestand. Milwaukee has won four of its last six games but is still under .500 at 17-19. Carlos Carrasco scattered two hits and struck out six in six scoreless innings of a 2-1 victory at St. Louis on Saturday and now has a 3.75 ERA on the season through seven starts. He has allowed three runs or less in six of those seven starts with four of those being quality outings. Corbin Burnes counters for the Brewers and he has been solid as well, but his last two games came against the Pirates, one of the worst offenses in the league. Here, we play against National League teams with an OBP of .310 or worse going up against teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is between 1.30 and 1.35, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start. This situation is 36-11 (76.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Cleveland Indians |
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09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers -160 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Detroit won its sixth straight game on Tuesday with a 12-1 victory over the Brewers. The Tigers did lose JaCoby Jones to a season ending hand injury so the production that has produced at least seven runs in four of those games will come down. Milwaukee has been up and down on offense recently as it has scored one run or less in four of its last seven games. The Brewers can flourish tonight against Spencer Turnbull whose command has been bad as he has a 4.38 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last three starts. Adrian Houser is coming off a pair of poor outings where he allowed four runs in each game, but we can expect a bounce back tonight. Here, we play against underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 batting .315 or better over their last 5 games going up an against opponent with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 141-51 (73.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (968) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -144 | Top | 16-2 | Loss | -144 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Monday Grand Slam. The Reds were coming off a weekend split heading into the Monday opener of this series against St. Louis. They are 14-19 overall but are just five games out in the National League Central. St. Louis is also under .500 at 12-13 and had a recent four-game losing streak snapped with a win on Sunday thanks to a complete game from Adam Wainwright. Sonny Gray takes the hill for Cincinnati and he has been great, posting a 1.94 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through seven starts. He has been especially effective at home with a 1.07 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in four starts, all resulting in Reds wins. He has dominated St. Louis throughout the two years he has been in Cincinnati as he has a 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in four starts. Kwang-hyun Kim counters for the Cardinals and he has posted two straight shutout outings over six innings where he allowed just three hits each time out. But his strikeout potential just is not there, and Cincinnati can take advantage for seeing him a second time this season. 10* (902) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-31-20 | White Sox v. Twins +120 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Minnesota has lost five straight games to fall into third place in the American League Central. Those all came on the road and the Twins head home where they are 12-3. Chicago has moved into a tie for first place in the division thanks to an 8-2 run and they will be heavily bet based on the starting pitching recent form of Lucas Giolito. He will make his first start since no-hitting Pittsburgh in a 4-0 win on Tuesday night, the 19th no-hitter in franchise history. In his last two starts, he has allowed three hits and two walks and no runs in 16 innings while striking out 26. He is just 4-6 with a 5.34 ERA in 11 career starts against Minnesota, including a 10-5 loss in the season-opener on July 24 when he allowed seven runs on six hits in just 3.2 innings. Rich Hill has made three starts, two of which have been quality. Here, we play on home teams after five or more consecutive losses, in August games. This situation is 46-26 (63.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Minnesota Twins |
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08-30-20 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Blue Jays defeated the Orioles 5-4 in 10 innings on Friday and 5-0 on Saturday to improve to 5-0 against Baltimore this season and have now won three straight games. They still trail the Rays by 4.5 games in the American League East but with the 2020 playoff format, they are right in the hunt for a postseason berth. The Orioles have lost four straight games and are now -18 in run differential. Jorge Lopez will be making his first start with Baltimore since he was claimed off waivers from the Royals on Aug. 9. He has allowed seven earned runs over nine innings with Baltimore in long relief. Tanner Roark counters for Toronto and while he has been inconsistent, he has not blown up and he shut down Baltimore in his earlier start against them, allowing one run in five innings. The Blue Jays are 8-2 in their last 10 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (922) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks +100 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Arizona has dropped six straight games following a series opening loss last night against the Rockies. The offense has been nowhere to be found as the Diamondbacks have scored a total of eight runs (1.33 rpg) during this skid but we expect the bats to get going tonight. Colorado snapped a seven-game losing streak with the victory and is now a game under .500 on the season. German Marquez got lit up in his last start as he allowed 10 runs on 10 hits in five innings against the Astros. Arizona has been a tough out as he has just three wins in 15 games while posting a 4.54 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Alex Young has been decent in his two starts as his 1.17 WHIP is an indication of how he has performed. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 off a one run win over a division rival, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or more over his last 3 starts. This situation is 84-39 (68.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (978) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-24-20 | Reds -135 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Cincinnati and Milwaukee are both riding losing streaks, but the Reds have the upper hand to break their skid with the starting pitching matchup. Cincinnati has lost two straight games and three of its last four to fall to 11-15. The Brewers meanwhile have lost four straight games to also fall to 11-15 as the pitching has been abysmal. Cincinnati hands the ball to Trevor Bauer who has been sensational as he is 3-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.57 WHIP and he has arguably been the best starter this season in baseball. All of his starts have been quality outings and he has allowed just two home runs over 26.1 innings. Brett Anderson counters for Milwaukee and while he is coming off a quality outing last time out, he has been inconsistent. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher hitting .255 or worse against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 hitting team batting .190 or worse over their last three games. This situation is 38-9 (80.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (909) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-22-20 | Diamondbacks -154 v. Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Arizona has dropped three straight games following a six-game winning streak as it has fallen to 13-14 on the season and now sits 6.5 games behind the dodgers in the National League West. San Francisco has now won four straight games after taking the opener of this series last night following three straight wins over the Angels. The diamondbacks hand the ball to Zac Gallen who has a 2.25 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through five starts. Arizona is 4-1 in those five games with his last four starts being quality outings. Tyler Anderson counters for the Giants and he has struggled of late, posting an 8.10 ERA over his last two starts covering 10 innings. 10* (929) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-21-20 | Brewers -131 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -131 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our Friday MLB Triple Play. Following a four-game winning streak, the Brewers are coming off a series loss in Minnesota. Milwaukee is now 11-12 and sits 4.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. Pittsburgh has lost four straight games and owns the worst record in baseball at 4-17 as it has the worst offense in runs scored per game and OPS and second to worst in batting average. Chad Kuhl has pitched decent in two starts but the long ball has plagued him with three home runs allowed in nine innings. Adrian Houser has a 3.27 ERA through five starts, allowing three runs or less in four of those. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -125 or more that are hitting .190 or worse over their last three games going up against an opponent with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 51-11 (82.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-20-20 | Astros v. Rockies -125 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Astros rolled to their seventh straight win with a 13-6 victory over Colorado on Wednesday. Houston is now 2.5 games behind Oakland in the American League West as the pitching has been outstanding. Colorado has dropped three straight games, all to Houston, and has lost six of its last seven to fall four games behind the dodgers in the National League West. German Marquez gets the ball for Colorado and he has been solid with five quality outings in his five starts. He has a 2.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over this stretch. Houston counters with Cristian Javier who has been solid as well with a 2.91 ERA and 0.83 WHIP and he is coming off his best start of the season but that was against the Mariners which are near the bottom in nearly every offensive category. The Astros are 0-6 in their last six games as an underdog while the Rockies are 9-4 in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (906) Colorado Rockies |
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08-19-20 | Astros v. Rockies +138 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Houston and Colorado continue their Interleague series, but they shit to Coors Field. The Astros entered Tuesday on a six-game winning streak, and they are now 12-10 on the season after a shaky start. As is usually the case, they are a better home team than road team where they are 3-6 on the season. The Rockies got off to a great start at 11-3 but have dropped six of their last eight games and are now three games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. Colorado sends Ryan Castellani to the hill as he will be making his third start of the season. He has not gone deep in his first two start but has been efficient with a 1.04 ERA and 0.58 WHIP over 8.2 innings. Framber Valdez gets the ball for Houston and he too has been solid with a 1.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in three starts and a relief appearance. However, this is his first time facing Colorado and more important, first time toeing it up at Coors Field. 10* (972) Colorado Rockies |
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08-18-20 | Rays v. Yankees -105 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. A solid pitching matchup in New York on Tuesday with the Yankees having the edge at a short price. They have won five straight games going into Monday and send Masahiro Tanaka to the hill and he has been solid in three starts with a 2.31 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He is 10-4 against Tampa Bay with an ERA of 3.07 and a WHIP of 0.90 in 19 career starts. Blake Snell has better numbers this season, but he is 3-6 against the Yankees with an ERA of 4.23 and a WHIP of 1.45. The Yankees are 50-17 in home games against American League teams with a batting average of .265 or worse over the last two seasons. 10* (912) New York Yankees |
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08-17-20 | Padres -130 v. Rangers | Top | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Padres have lost five straight games including the first two in this series to fall to 11-12 on the season. We played on San Diego yesterday and lost despite a solid effort from Garrett Richards as the bullpen allowed three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to fall 5-4. The Padres turn to Zack Davies who has been solid through four starts as he has a 2.78 ERA and 0.84 WHIP as he has posted four quality outings in those for games. This includes three on the road where he had games in Colorado and Los Angeles. Texas had a four-game winning streak snapped with a 10-6 loss at Colorado. Jordan Lyles counters for Texas and he has struggled in three starts where he has a 6.91 ERA with a rough 10:11 K:BB ratio. 10* (965) San Diego Padres |
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08-16-20 | Padres -115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Padres have lost four straight games including the first two in this series to fall to 11-11 on the season. Arizona meanwhile has won three in a row to improve to 10-11 and the Diamondbacks are now 4.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. Robbie Ray has gotten off to a horrific start as he has yet to post a quality outing in four starts and has allowed at least five runs in each of his last three games. Garrett Richards has had much more success as he has a 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in four starts including a gem last time out as he allowed one run over six innings on Tuesday in a win over the Dodgers. 10* (927) San Diego Padres |
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08-14-20 | Brewers +102 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee dropped the opener of this series on Thursday to make it two straight losses and the Brewers are now 7-10 on the season. Chicago has won three straight games and owns an MLB-best 13-3 record. This is the best start for the Cubs since 1907. Pitching has been solid for Chicago and it sends Tyler Chatwood to the hill tonight. Chatwood posted two quality starts to begin the season, but the Royals hammered him his last time out for eight runs on 11 hits in 2.1 innings. Brandon Woodruff counters for the Brewers and he is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.98 WHIP though four starts. Three of those have been quality outings and he owns a 26:5 K:BB ratio. 10* (917) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians -115 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Chicago took the opener of this series with a 7-1 win on Tuesday to make it seven wins in its last eight games. The Cubs are now 11-3 overall and have a 4.5-game lead over three teams in the National League Central. Cleveland remains a game out of first place in the American League Central as it sits at 10-8 thanks to great pitching. The Indians are allowing just 2.5 rpg and a .196 batting average, both of which are best in baseball. Carlos Carrasco takes the hill for Cleveland and he has put together three quality outings to open the season and overall has a 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 18 innings. Kyle Hendricks counter for the Cubs and while he has two quality outings in three starts, those were both at home and he was shelled by Cincinnati on the road where he allowed six runs in just 4.1 innings. 10* (910) Cleveland Indians |
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08-11-20 | Nationals -138 v. Mets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Washington won the first game of the series in a 16-4 rout last night to move to 5-7 on the season. Max Scherzer gets the ball for the Nationals and he has yet to get a win this season but has a 3.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was lifted after one inning from his last start Wednesday against the Mets in D.C. due to discomfort in his hamstring but is back to full strength. The Mets fell to 7-10 with the Monday loss and they turn to Rick Porcello who is coming off a quality outing against Washington but has still struggled overall as he has posted a 6.92 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in three starts over 13 innings. The Washington bats stay hot as they get a second straight look at Porcello which is a big edge. 10* (963) Washington Nationals |
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08-10-20 | White Sox -134 v. Tigers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Monday Enforcer. Chicago has lost two straight games and four of its last five to fall to 8-8 on the season and it trails the Twins by two games in the American League Central. Detroit meanwhile has won three straight games to improve to 8-5 following two straight losses. The White Sox turn to Dallas Keuchel, who has looked very sharp so far this season, going 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The Tigers counter with Michael Fulmer who was shelled for four runs, including three home runs, in just 2.2 innings against the Royals. It was his first start since 2018 after he missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery. 10* (903) Chicago White Sox |
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08-07-20 | Reds -110 v. Brewers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Reds are coming off a brutal 13-0 loss to the Orioles which was their third straight loss and second straight shutout defeat. The offense has been abysmal, but they get a good matchup here as they face Eric Lauer who is making his first start of the season after posting 2.2 innings of relief work way back on July 26. In his career, he has a 4.36 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Milwaukee is also struggling on offense as the Brewers are averaging just 3.5 rpg and are hitting just .206. They have a much tough matchup as they square off against Trevor Bauer who has a 0.68 ERA and a 0.53 WHIP with 20 strikeouts in 13.1 innings through two starts. 10* (967) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-06-20 | Reds v. Indians -115 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Cleveland has won two straight games, both over Cincinnati, to move to 7-6 on the season, trailing the Twins by three and a half games in the American League Central. The Indians lead the bigs in ERA at 2.37 as the pitching has led the way behind an offense that has struggled early on. Carlos Carrasco has looked great in his first two starts since May 2019 as he has a 3.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Both starts have been quality outings and he is a perfect 3-0 in five starts against the Reds. Cincinnati has fallen to 6-7 with the two straight losses and it turns to Luis Castillo who posted a quality outing in his first start against the Tigers but got hit hard last time out against Detroit, allowing five runs on eight hits in six innings. 10* (910) Cleveland Indians |
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08-05-20 | Twins v. Pirates +162 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. This is a contrarian play where we will be backing the worst team in the league going up against one of the hottest. The Pirates own the worst record in baseball at 2-9 and ended a five-game road trip by getting swept in a two-game series at Minnesota including a 7-3 loss yesterday. Minnesota meanwhile is 9-2 which is tied for the best start in franchise history. Trevor Williams will look to right the ship after coming off a pair of average starts and he will be making his first home start of the season. Randy Dobnak counters for the Twins following two solid outings but only one of those was a quality start. The Pirates bats are due for an outburst. 10* (958) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-04-20 | White Sox +123 v. Brewers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 123 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The White Sox have won five straight games and look to keep that momentum going tonight and we catch them at an underdog price. Milwaukee is off to a 3-4 start as the offense has been hit or miss thus far. Lucas Giolito gets the ball for Chicago and after recording just 11 outs while allowing seven runs in his first start, he rebounded Wednesday by allowing just four hits, two walks while recording six strikeouts in six shutout innings. He finished fifth in the American League in strikeouts per nine innings at 11.6 last season and Milwaukee is a team that loves to miss the ball. Brandon Woodruff counters for the Brewers and he has gotten off to a solid start but faces a tough lineup with the White Sox that are averaging 5.7 rpg which is fourth in all of baseball. 10* (917) Chicago White Sox |
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08-03-20 | Mets -123 v. Braves | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. After a 3-2 start, the Mets have lost their last five games including the first three games in this four-game set with the Braves. The offense has managed just one run over the last two games but that comes around tonight. Atlanta meanwhile has won five straight games after a 2-3 start and the Braves are third in the National League in run differential at +17. New York sends Jacob deGrom to the hill and he has been solid thus far with a 1.64 ERA and 0.55 WHIP through two starts. He allowed no runs and one hit in five innings in his first start against Atlanta and he has dominated the Braves with a 1.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 22 career starts. Mike Soroka counters for Atlanta and he has gotten off to a solid start as well but he has struggled at home with a 4.03 ERA in 16 starts compared to a 1.73 ERA on the road. 10* (957) New York Mets |
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08-02-20 | Astros v. Angels +131 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Angels snapped a three-game skid with a 5-4 win on Saturday to move to 3-6 on the season and they look to build on that momentum to take this series. The Astros have dropped three of their last four games as the offense has been quiet since a hot start to the season. Shohei Ohtani gets the ball for the Angels and his first start could not have gone much worse. He allowed five runs on three hits and three walks without recording an out in his first start of the season, but we expect a solid comeback today. He will be opposed by Josh James who is coming off just his fifth career start and it was not a good one as he allowed three runs on three hits and walked five batters in just three innings. 10* (924) Los Angeles Angels |
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