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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-13-16 | Dodgers v. Yankees +127 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 127 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Following a series loss in Miami, the Dodgers took Game One last night in Yankee Stadium and increased their lead to four games in the National League West over the Giants. New York has dropped two straight following a seven-game winning streak but still remain in the playoff hunt. C.C. Sabathia takes the hill for the Yankees and while he is not having a great season, it has not been horrible either. He has allowed three runs or less in 18 of his 26 starts including his last four so he is pitching very well down the stretch. The Dodgers are hitting just .213 against lefties on the season including .184 over their last 10 games. Los Angeles counters with Julio Urias who is also on a solid streak where he has allowed two runs or less in five straight games but he has not pitched in 11 days because of an injury to fingers on his pitching hand. He has had his issues on the road this season where he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over six starts with just two of those being quality outings and those came against the Brewers and Reds who possess two of the five worst records in the National League. 10* (980) New York Yankees |
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09-10-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +150 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The Giants got away with a subpar effort from Madison Bumgarner last night as they won in extra innings but backing it up with another victory will be tough. San Francisco is 3-15 in its last 18 games following a win going back to the All Star Break. Arizona has dropped four straight games but the run production at home remains solid as it has averaged 6.8 rpg over its last 12 games at Chase Field and we should be in store for more tonight. Johnny Cueto was nearly untouchable to start the season but he has been all over the place since late June. After posting a 2.06 ERA through June 21, he has put up a 4.06 ERA over his last 13 starts and while some have still been good, only six of those have been quality outings. Arizona turns to Archie Bradley who has been pretty inconsistent himself but is coming off a pair of quality starts to build on. After an awful start to the season, he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 15 starts. 10* (912) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-10-16 | Phillies +262 v. Nationals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Washington has dominated this series but the price tonight is too good to pass up. The Nationals have won 10 of the last 11 meetings but four of the last five wins have come by just one run and the lone Phillies victory came just two days ago. Philadelphia has held its own this season especially on the road where it does have a losing record but is +8.6 units in profit, the third best road margin in all of baseball. Max Scherzer gets the ball for Washington and he is having a typical season where he has dominated most of the time and the Nationals have won his last five starts. However, they are just 7-5 in his 12 home starts which equates to -3.4 units lost. Jerad Eickhoff counters for the Phillies and he has been very solid this season, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 28 starts, 16 of which have been quality outings. He has faced Washington twice, each resulting in a quality performance and that is all we can ask for again at this price. 10* (903) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-09-16 | Dodgers v. Marlins +123 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 123 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
We get a rare opportunity to back Jose Fernandez as a home underdog which has rarely been the case throughout his career. He is at it against this season, going 10-2 with a 1.91 ERA at Marlins Park and in his career, he is 27-2 with a 1.57 ERA in 40 starts. This could one of his last starts of the season as he will likely be shut down once the Marlins are out of playoff contention. He has dominated the dodgers throughout his career as he is 3-0 with a 2.88 ERA in four career starts, all Miami wins. Going against Clayton Kershaw usually is not wise but tonight is an exception to the rule. He has been out since late June with a herniated disc in his back but will be coming back slowly prior to playoff time. He will be on a limited pitch count tonight so reaching five innings could be his max. the Marlins are 13-6 in their last 19 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (956) Miami Marlins |
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09-09-16 | Rays +131 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Blake Snell looks to cool down the red hot Yankees and he has the tools to do so. He has a 3.39 ERA through 15 starts and the impressive part is that he has allowed two runs or less in 12 of those outings. This includes a pair of starts against New York where he has allowed a combined three runs in 10.1 innings. Not good news for the Yankees as they are hitting just .131 against lefties over their last 10 games. New York turns to Michael Pineda and he has been all over the place. He has a 5.10 ERA through 27 starts with just 11 of those being quality outings. Most of those came early in the season as since July, he has allowed five runs or more five times while allowing two runs or less just four times. Tampa Bay has been a nemesis as this season he has faced the Rays three times and has been lit up all three times, posting an 11.05 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in only 14.2 combined innings. 10* (965) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-08-16 | Reds +141 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Pittsburgh snapped an eight-game losing streak with its win over the Cardinals last night but it may now be too little, too late for the Pirates. They are now a game under .500 and sitting 4.5 games out of the final National League Wild Card spot. The worst part about the losing skid was that the final five games were at home where Pittsburgh has been dominating for years but is just at .500 this season. The Reds are on a four-game slide following a sweep at the hands of the Mets to start the week. The offense has managed only eight runs during the skid but something says they break out here as Cincinnati has given Dan Straily a lot of run support this season. Straily has been the most consistent starter on the team this season as he has had only a handful of poor outings. Three of those came at the end of June and since then, he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts including two runs or less in nine of his last 10 outings. He has a 2.59 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates while the Reds are 7-0 in his last seven starts with four days of rest. Additionally, the Reds are 9-1 in his last 10 starts. The Pirates turn to Ivan Nova who has been very solid since coming over from the Yankees as he has yet to lose while posting a 2.89 ERA in the process. Even though the Reds offense has been struggling of late, they are hitting .271 against righties over their last five games and this is the second time they have seen Nova which is a big edge. 10* (903) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-07-16 | Red Sox v. Padres +207 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
We are going with the big home underdog here as the Padres are catching a huge number as they look for the series upset win. San Diego took the opener Monday before dropping Game Two last night and it is 7-2 in its last nine home games following a loss that took place at home in its previous game. While the offense has been pretty average all season, the Padres are hitting .252 on the season against left-handed pitching. Boston pulled into a tie with the slumping Blue Jays atop the American League East despite a very average run since late August as they are 6-7 over their last 13 games. Additionally, the Red Sox are 3-10 in their last 13 during Game Three of a series. The reason for the big line is that David Price is on the hill for Boston and he has been hot, winning five straight starts while posting a 2.06 ERA in the process. He has faced only one playoff contender over that stretch however and while San Diego does not fit into that category, we have to look at the whole road experience where Boston is just 8-7 in his 15 starts on the highway. San Diego counters with Jarred Cosart who is coming off a dreadful start last time out against Atlanta. The positive is that he has pitched five innings or less while allowing five or more runs on two other occasions and he bounced back by allowing just one run over 11 innings. 10* (980) San Diego Padres |
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09-07-16 | Cubs v. Brewers +150 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 150 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The Brewers won for us last night and we will back them again here in another good value spot. As mentioned yesterday, the home/road splits are deceiving despite the difference in records. Now nine games over .500 on the road, one would think that is profitable but Chicago is -5.0 in road units despite the positive record. Conversely, Milwaukee is two games over .500 at home for the season and that equates to a positive net gain of +4.8 units. This is a huge difference as the Brewers are 18 games under .500 on the road. Mark Garza gets the ball for Milwaukee and he has been pitching particularly well of late. He had one bad start in Seattle but since late July is his six other starts, he has posted a 2.34 ERA which shows how the consistency has turned around considerably. The Brewers are 5-1 in his six home starts this season where he has put up a 2.80 ERA. Chicago turns to Mike Montgomery and he is basically a filler when he goes into the rotation. He made three starts when John Lackey was out and even though he is back, the Cubs are giving the rest of the rotation an extra day. Since coming over from Seattle, he has a 4.72 ERA and going back, the Brewers are 13-3 in their last 16 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (960) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-06-16 | Diamondbacks +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
It was not a good return to Dodger Stadium for Zack Greinke who lasted just 4.2 innings while getting charged with eight runs including five home runs. That was his first start there since leaving Los Angeles and Arizona hopes for better results tonight. The Diamondbacks have been a better road team than home team all year long and they are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. The Dodgers have now won three straight games and are four games clear of the Giants in the National League West. It has been a huge turnaround from prior to the All Star Break but they are now being asked to lay another big price. Ross Stripling started the season strong but then ran into a few hurdles before being sent to the bullpen. He came back into the rotation in August and made five starts but posted a below average 4.18 ERA with the Dodgers going 1-4 in those games. Additionally, the Dodgers are 0-5 in his last five starts against teams with a losing record. Arizona counters with Shelby Miller who is having a disastrous season after putting up spectacular numbers last season. He was sent to the Minors in July but was recently recalled and posted a quality outing at the Giants and can build on that. A trip to the Minors could be just what he needed to finish the season strong. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-06-16 | Cubs v. Brewers +165 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 165 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
The Cubs continues their torrid pace with a victory last night in this series opener to move 41 games over .500 on the season. Being 10 games over .500 on the road is solid but it definitely looks to be overpriced in this spot and that is backed up by the fact that Chicago is -3.4 in road units despite the positive record. The Brewers had their four-game winning streak snapped with the win last night but they are still over .500 at home for the season and that equates to a positive net gain. Jason Hammel gets the ball for Chicago and while he is having a solid season overall, he has struggled on the road. In 13 home starts, he has a 1.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP but in 13 road starts, he has a 4.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP so the splits are pretty significant. He has been the least effective road starter and going back, the Cubs are 1-6 in his last seven road starts. Milwaukee turns to Wily Peralta who has been inconsistent this season but he has come on of late. After rejoining the rotation in August, he has a 3.00 ERA in five starts and that drops to 2.25 in four home outings. The Brewers are 21-8 in his last 29 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (910) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-01-16 | Padres +134 v. Braves | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Atlanta won Game Two of this series last night to make it a rare two-game winning streak and will be out for the sweep Thursday afternoon. The Braves have yet to produce a home sweep this season nor have they won three straight home games during any sort of homestand. Atlanta is 3-10 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. The Padres opened this nine-game roadtrip with a series win over Miami but the pitching and offense have both been a letdown to open this series. San Diego has the ability to get it back today with the starting pitching advantage. For a solid starting pitcher, Jarred Cosart has been shipped around quite a bunch. San Diego is just his third team to pitch for but he has been with Houston twice and Miami twice. He struggled early this season in Miami then came away with a solid start before heading to San Diego where he has been good with the exception of one bad outing against the Phillies. Cosart has a 1.62 ERA over his last three starts, allowing just one earned run each time out. Atlanta turns to Mike Foltynewicz who has been inconsistent this season with a 4.30 ERA over 18 starts. He is coming off a quality start against the Giants but they had a depleted roster that was missing Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence and Eduardo Nunez from the lineup. His numbers improve at home but Atlanta has just two wins in seven starts and going back, the Braves are 0-6 in his last six home starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (951) San Diego Padres |
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08-31-16 | Padres +134 v. Braves | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Atlanta picked up a win last night behind another strong performance from Julio Teheran but backing it up with another victory will be difficult. The Braves have not won consecutive games since early in the month and are now 0-6 in their last six games following a win while going back even further, they are 7-19 in their last 26 games following a win. The Padres have been mired in a rough stretch as well but they have been more consistent during the latter half of the month. The pitching has led the way as the Padres have an ERA of 3.21 over their last 10 games and that is close to three runs better than Atlanta which has a 6.12 ERA over that same stretch. Paul Clemens will be making his seventh start for San Diego after coming over from Miami and while he has not been dominating, he has been fairly consistent and has kept San Diego in ball games. He has allowed three runs or less in five of six starts with the Padres and the lone exception was against the Cubs. The Braves are 3-10 in their last 13 games against right-handed starters. Atlanta counters with Matt Wisler who has been as inconsistent as they come. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season but prior to that, he had allowed at least six runs in four straight starts. The Braves are 3-10 in his last 13 starts following a quality outing in his last appearance. He has struggled at home while getting hardly any run support and on the season, the Braves are 2-10 in his 12 home starts. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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08-30-16 | Diamondbacks +157 v. Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 157 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Game One of the short two-game series starts Tuesday as the Giants look to gain ground in the National League West. Back on July 10 at the All Star Break, San Francisco had a 6.5-game lead on the dodgers but the second half has not been kind as the Giants are a putrid 14-26 in their last 40 games. The offense and pitching have been sufficient enough but unable to put both together on a consistent basis. Arizona is coming off a 4-3 homestand but is just 25-43 at Chase Field but has been much better on the road and are one of just four teams in baseball with a losing record that has netted positive units on the highway. One of the reasons is Zack Greinke who has been excellent on the road besides one bad outing at Fenway Park. Take that away and he has a 2.19 ERA in his other nine road starts, eight of which have been quality outings. This has been one of his favorite stops as in five career starts at AT&T Park, he is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Johnny Cueto counters for the Giants and while he is riding a three-game quality start streak, the Giants have not been able to get him victories as they are just 3-5 over his last eight starts after starting the season 16-2. Additionally, the Giants are just 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (963) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-30-16 | Cardinals v. Brewers +153 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
St. Louis extended its lead in the National League Wild Card to a game and a half following its win last night in Milwaukee to open this series. The Cardinals rallied from a 5-3 deficit to claim the win an improved to a Major League best 39-24 on the road but we get the value that comes with that tonight as the Cardinals have lost four straight games following a victory. Milwaukee has lost five straight games, all at home, but are still two games over .500 on the season at Miller Park. The Brewers bullpen has been very solid this season despite last night and overall the pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA at home, ninth best in baseball. The Cardinals are a big road favorite behind Adam Wainwright who has been anything but the team ace this season. He is coming off a poor outing against the Mets and over his last six starts, he has just one quality outing. On the road, he has been horrible with a 6.53 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 13 starts. Milwaukee gives the ball to Wily Peralta who has been very good since getting recalled following a bad start to the season. He has posted a 3.52 ERA over four starts, three of which he has allowed two runs or fewer. Going back, the Brewers are 21-7 in his last 28 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (960) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-29-16 | Mariners +143 v. Rangers | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
The Rangers took three of four against Cleveland in their last series and have increased their lead to 8.5 games in the American League West. While they own the best record in the American League and the second best record overall, this is one of the most overrated teams in baseball. Texas has a positive run differential of just +5 which is completely shocking for a team that is 23 games over .500 but this is due to its 29-8 record in one-run games which does say a lot for its bullpen but also shows there has been a lot of luck involved. The Mariners won 14 of 17 games before losing six of their last eight games but are still in the thick of the American League Wild Card race. They are just three games behind Baltimore and this is a big series with a lot of contending teams facing each other this week. Hisashi Iwakuma gets the ball for Seattle and he has been as consistent as they come with a 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 26 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in five straight starts, posting a 2.20 ERA in the process and the Rangers have been no problem for him as he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP against them in 18 career games. Texas counters with Yu Darvish which is the big reason this line is so large. He has a 2.91 ERA over 11 start but Texas is a pedestrian 6-5 in those games and has lost five of his last seven outings after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. 10* (919) Seattle Mariners |
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08-29-16 | Rays +183 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Boston is coming off a series loss against Kansas City and now sits two games behind Toronto in the American League East so a visit from the reeling Rays could be just what they need. However, we will be taking advantage of the nearly two-to-one underdog price based on the starting pitching. Tampa Bay opened its roadtrip with a pair of losses in Houston but took the finale yesterday with a 10-4 victory and going back, the Rays have won four of their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The reason for this big number is the dominance Rick Porcello has had at Fenway Park this season. He has not lost nor have the Red Sox lost when he is on the hill as he is 12-0 while Boston is 13-0 in his 13 home starts. While he has pitched solid, his 2.96 ERA is not dominating but has been fortunate to get an average of 7.8 rpg. The Rays are 6-2 in their last 8 games against right-handed starters and are hitting .282 against right-handed pitching their last 10 games. Matt Andriese has not won a game since June when he was in the bullpen but he is coming off a quality start in his last outing which happened to come against Boston last week. Overall, he has a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP which are very decent numbers for a pitcher getting a number this big. 10* (913) Tampa Bay Rays |
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08-28-16 | A's +168 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 168 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Oakland stole Game Two of this series on Saturday as it scored two runs in the eighth inning to win 3-2 despite gathering only four hits. The way the pitching has been of late, a lot of runs have not been necessary as it has allowed just eight runs over the last five games. St. Louis continues to plod along at home as it has the best road record in baseball but it is now 30-36 at home, the only team in baseball with a winning record overall but a losing record at home. Still, the Cardinals continue to get overpriced here at Busch Stadium. Jaime Garcia gets the ball for St. Louis and he is coming off two very bad starts against the Astros and Mets as he allowed 11 runs in nine combined innings. While he used to be automatic at home, he is just 6-6 with the Cardinals going 6-8 in his 14 home starts. Andrew Triggs counters for Oakland and while he is winless, he has pitched good enough for some wins. He has made only three starts since coming in from the bullpen and has a 2.30 ERA and those games were against Baltimore, Cleveland and Texas, three of the nine highest scoring teams in baseball. Oakland has an extremely solid underdog situation on its side as we play on road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that are averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or fewer HR’s per start. This situation is 61-39 (61 percent) over the last five seasons netting a huge 49.2 units. 10* (979) Oakland A's |
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08-28-16 | Twins +184 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Toronto goes for the sweep today following a huge comeback, erasing a 7-3 deficit to win 8-7. The Blue Jays would like to keep that going with a big roadtrip on deck including a series at Baltimore to start it Monday. This is a big number they are laying through and the contrarian side is with Minnesota at this value number. The Twins have lost nine straight games as the offense has been solid but the pitching has been brutal. They turn to Kelly Gibson who has been off and on this season, a trademark that has haunted him in his early career. He is coming off a poor outing against the Tigers where he allowed five runs in five innings but a rebound is expected. Gibson has allowed four runs or more on eight previous occasions this season and has bounced back the majority of the time in his next start and overall has a 3.24 ERA in those follow up outings. This has been the case throughout his career where he has posted a 3.70 ERA in all starts following a game where he allowed four runs or more. R.A. Dickey gets the ball for Toronto and he is coming off a quality outing against the Angels but those types of starts have been rare as just two of his last seven have been quality and only 12 of his 26 overall starts have resulted in quality performances. Toronto is 39-28 at home but that record goes to 35-18 when Dickey does not start and 4-10 when he does. Going back, the Blue Jays are 8-20 in his last 28 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (967) Minnesota Twins |
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08-27-16 | Pirates v. Brewers +139 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Pittsburgh has opened this series with two wins and has now won six straight road games dating back to its previous roadtrip. The Pirates are still just a .500 team on the road however and going back, they are only 2-9 in their last 11 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Brewers have the second worst road record in baseball but are five games over .500 at home despite the two losses to start this four-game set. Milwaukee is 9-4 in its last 13 games following losses in the first two games of a series. The pitching has been solid through the first five games of this homestand, allowing just 3.0 rpg and that should continue with Jimmy Nelson who has similar home/road splits as the team as a whole. He has a 6.31 ERA in 12 road starts but a 2.80 ERA in 14 home starts and has allowed three runs or less in 13 of those including his last 11. The Brewers are 14-5 in his last 19 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Pirates send Jameson Taillon to the hill and he is having a very strong rookie season. He has eight straight quality starts and that is a reason for the high price tag. Two of those have come against Milwaukee but that is now an edge for the Brewers as seeing him a third time is a significant advantage. 10* (906) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-27-16 | Padres +135 v. Marlins | Top | 1-0 | Win | 135 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with San Diego last night as the Padres blew a 6-2 lead by allowing five runs over the final three innings. A better performance from the bullpen is certainly necessary as the Padres aim to snap a four-game losing skid. The offense has been the issue on the road but San Diego has a chance to break out again like it did last night. The Marlins remain a game and a half out of the Wild Card in the National League but there has been no real home field advantage as they are just three games over .500 at home. They have been unable to get big runs going as the Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. A reason the Padres can bust out again is because of the struggles of Jose Urena who has been all over the place since entering the rotation. He has been very inconsistent in two seasons here both in the bullpen and in the rotation as his 5.73 ERA and 1.55 WHIP reflect. Going back, the Marlins are 0-5 in his last five home starts. The Padres counter with Clayton Richard who has made two starts since coming over from the Cubs. He has allowed just two earned runs over 11 innings and while he will not overpower anyone, his command is the key and so far, so good. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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08-26-16 | Padres +185 v. Marlins | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Miami is still in the National League Wild Card mix despite coming off a series loss against the Royals to start the week. The Marlins are five games over .500 but the price tonight makes it look like they are 25 games over .500 as this is just the eighth time they have been a 2-1 favorite. They have gone 2-5 in the previous seven instances and only one of those came without Jose Fernandez on the hill and it resulted in a loss. For a solid starting pitcher, Jarred Cosart has been shipped around quite a bunch. San Diego is just his third team to pitch for but he has been with Houston twice and Miami twice and tonight marks the first time he will the Marlins in Miami so there will be a ton of motivation going against the team that has traded him away on two different occasions. He struggled early this season in Miami then came away with a solid start before heading to San Diego where he has been good with the exception of one bad outing against the Phillies. He is coming off a pair of quality starts and carries that into Friday. Miami counters with David Phelps who is making just his fifth start after spending the majority of the season in the bullpen, appearing in 50 games before hitting the rotation. He has no business being a favorite of this size especially since he has just one quality start in his first four outings. 10* (953) San Diego Padres |
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08-26-16 | Royals +156 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-3 | Win | 156 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
The Royals are coming off a series win at Miami and they are the hottest team in baseball with a 15-3 record over their last 18 games. They are still in good position in the American League Wild Card race but they have to continue to remain hot as they are looking up at five teams that they will have to pass. Boston lost its final two games in its series in Tampa Bay to conclude a very successful 7-4 roadtrip. The Red Sox have been solid at home this season but have won just one time in their last five home games against winning teams. Steven Wright takes the hill for Boston and this is the perfect spot to go against him as he is coming off a three-hit shutout against the Dodgers in his last start. He has been all over the place recently with just three quality outings over his last eight starts including just one of four at home and that came against the hapless Twins. Going back, the Red Sox are 3-9 in his last 12 starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Ian Kennedy has been a big part of the Royals resurgence as Kansas City has won his last three starts and he has posted a tremendous 0.79 ERA over his last five starts, not allowing more than one run in any of those. The momentum should continue as the Royals are 6-1 in his last seven starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (969) Kansas City Royals |
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08-25-16 | Mariners v. White Sox +133 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 133 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Mariners dropped their final two games of their homestand against the Yankees as the offense was able to do nothing, scoring just one run over those two games. That is not a good sign especially when they could be without Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager, their home run and RBI leaders respectively, due to injuries. Chicago is off to a 3-2 start on this roadtrip following a loss to the Phillies last night but it is still a solid four games over .500 at home. Going back, the White Sox are 5-2 in their last seven home games against teams with a winning record. Seattle gives the ball to James Paxton who is coming off a pair of gems against the Angels and Red Sox but the problem is those were at home and they were three weeks ago as he is now just coming off the disabled list. He was hit on his pitching elbow and while he has been cleared, there still could be some issues and any positive momentum gained from those two great starts has been lost. The Mariners are 4-11 in his last 15 road starts while the White Sox are 5-0 in their last five home games against left-handed starters. Chicago counters with Anthony Ranaudo who is making his third start since coming over from Texas. He posted a quality start in his first outing and while his second outing did not go nearly as well, those games were both on the road against division leaders the Cubs and the Indians. 10* (918) Chicago White Sox |
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08-24-16 | Cubs v. Padres +233 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Jake Arrieta came through last night with a gem, a rarity for him of late but we will go against the overvalued Cubs again on Wednesday. Chicago is now 13.5 games ahead of the Cardinals in the National League Central and we say overvalued because despite being 35 games over .500, Chicago has netted just 1.64 units of profit. The Padres hit a buzzsaw last night but should be better off today and on the season, they are 5-0 against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.05 or better. Today that belongs to Kyle Hendricks who is making a strong case for Cy Young consideration as he leads baseball with a 2.16 ERA over 23 starts. He has been very dominant at home but his ERA is close to two runs higher on the road where he is just 3-6 while the Cubs have won only four of his 11 starts. San Diego gives the ball to Paul Clemens whose overall numbers are not great but he has been pretty consistent. In five starts since coming over from Miami, he has allowed three runs or less in each and San Diego has won three of those games with the two losses being one run decisions. Additionally, we play against favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 that are hitting between .255 to .269 and with a slugging percentage of .440 or better over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 5.20 and 5.70. This situation is 27-19 (58.7 percent) since 1997 while netting a significant 31.9 units so this contrarian situation has been a moneymaker for some time now and we look for that to continue this afternoon. 10* (954) San Diego Padres |
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08-24-16 | Indians v. A's +132 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 132 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Oakland grabbed Game Two of this series yesterday which snapped a three-game slide and it will be out to win this series before heading out on a six-game roadtrip. The offense was stagnate before last night and they should be able to continue right where they left off. The Indians are now 6.5 games ahead of Detroit in the American League Central but their spotty play on the road has been an issue as they have dropped seven of their last 10 games on the highway. Additionally, the Indians are 5-11 in their last 16 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Oakland turns to Kendall Graveman who is coming off a two-hit shutout in his last start and while that may be considered a fluke, he has been pitching very well of late. After getting off to a rough start this season, he owns a 3.47 ERA over his last 15 starts with only two of those being poor outings and both of those came on the road. Over this stretch, he has a 2.79 ERA at home in six starts, five of which have resulted in victories. Trevor Bauer counters for Cleveland and while he is coming off a quality start in his last game, those have been few and far between of late. He has followed up his last three quality start with non-quality efforts next time out. The Indians are 3-8 in his last 11 road starts against teams with a losing record. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 110-62 (64 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Oakland A's |
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08-23-16 | Cubs v. Padres +235 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Chicago took the opener of this series last night thanks to a great performance from Jon Lester and tonight the Cubs come in as a bigger favorite despite the pitching matchup not being as favorable as Monday. The Padres are now 3-2 on this homestand following a brutal 2-7 roadtrip and despite the loss last night, they are 9-4 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning percentage of .620 or better this season. We played against Jake Arrieta in his last start and he did produce another average outing but was fortunate to get a lot of run support. While his numbers are still great, his ERA has risen a full run over the last two months as he has posted a 4.01 ERA over his last 10 starts. This includes a 5.64 ERA in five road starts and San Diego has won four of its last five home games against right-handed starters. Christian Friedrich counters for the Padres and he came back with a quality outing last time out following a pair of poor starts. He has been pretty average overall but San Diego is 4-3 in his seven home starts so this is a sure take at this extremely high price. The Padres are 4-1 in his last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (908) San Diego Padres |
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08-23-16 | Nationals +141 v. Orioles | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Baltimore snuck out a victory last night in this series opener which snapped a three-game slide and pulled it within two games of the Blue Jays and Yankees in the American League East. Despite the win, the Orioles are 2-6 in their last eight home games against teams with a winning record. Washington has dropped two straight but has not lost three straight games since late June and it is 6-0 in its last six games following consecutive losses and this is another good spot to bounce back. After a very poor Major League debut, Reynaldo Lopez has settled down and is showing why he is a top prospect. He has gotten better in each of his four starts culminating with a dominant performance last time out as he went seven innings and allowed just one earned run on four hits while striking out 11. The Orioles are a much tougher test than the Braves but Lopez is getting more comfortable at this level and should continue his solid pitching. The Orioles give the ball to Kevin Gausman who has been the least profitable starter in the rotation. He is 4-10 with a 4.11 ERA in 22 starts with only nine of those being won by Baltimore. He has been better at home but going back, the Orioles are 6-15 in his last 21 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (923) Washington Nationals |
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08-21-16 | Twins +161 v. Royals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Kansas City is the hottest team in baseball right now with seven straight wins but it may be too little, too late for the Royals as they are still eight games behind the Indians in the American League Central while sitting in a tie for sixth in the Wild Card standings. The Twins look to avoid the four-game sweep today and even up their roadtrip before heading home. While this series has not been what they wanted, they are still 16-7 in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record. The contrarian take is also based on the Royals starting pitcher as Danny Duffy has been flying under the radar all season and is making a slight Cy Young case but his lack of starts will not get him there. He is 10-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 18 starts but prior to that he came out of the bullpen 16 times which hurts his cause. Still, he is keeping the Royals in the race but is now paying the price. The Twins have won five straight games against left-handed starters. Not to be outdone, Ervin Santana has been having a solid season as well with a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 22 starts but playing for a struggling team has resulted in him getting just six wins. He has been even better of late as he has a 1.84 ERA over his last 10 starts with Minnesota winning six of those. 10* (925) Minnesota Twins |
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08-21-16 | Blue Jays +149 v. Indians | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
After an improbable loss on Friday, Toronto bounced back with a win on Saturday in Cleveland and looks to win the series to lock down a winning roadtrip to maintain its lead in the American League East. The Indians had their two-game winning streak snapped but still possess a seven-game lead in the American League Central over the struggling Tigers. With Corey Kluber on the hill, they should be confident for a bounceback but it will not that easy. He has been pitching great but a lot has had to do with the opposition as over his last 11 starts, Cleveland is 6-0 in six starts against losing teams and 2-3 in five starts against teams with a losing record, both wins coming against the Yankees. Going back, the Indians are 3-10 in his last 13 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Kluber is 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA in four career starts against Toronto. It has not been the season expected for Marcus Stroman after the great end to last year after his comeback. He has been on a roll though as he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with a 25:3 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, two against the Astros and the other against the Royals. The Blue Jays are 15-5 in his last 20 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (917) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-20-16 | A's +190 v. White Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Oakland took Game One of this series last night thanks to a two-hit shutout from Kendall Graveman and look to build on that momentum following a five-game losing skid. Chicago has been slumping with losses in four of its last five games and it is just 7-14 in its last 21 games. Oakland has won five of its last seven against losing teams while the White Sox are 2-9 in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Chris Sale was unbeatable early in the season but he has been up and down and has now gone six straight starts without a win. While the last five games have come on the road, he has not pitched well at home this season as he has a 4.55 ERA. Ross Detwiler gets the ball for Oakland and after a solid outing in his first starts of the season, he struggled last time out but that game was at Texas but now faces a much weaker offense and he is in good position for a bounceback performance. 10* (973) Oakland A's |
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08-20-16 | Mets +141 v. Giants | Top | 9-5 | Win | 141 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The Mets failed to break through against the Giants two top starters but have a chance to get one back today as they continue to cling to a small Wild Card hope. San Francisco is back in first place in the National League West by a half-game over the Dodgers and this is just the second time since the All Star Break they have won consecutive games as they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win. Bartolo Colon continues to pitch well with the exception of a few bad scattered starts. He has allowed more than two runs only three times in his last 16 starts and those three games were against three of the top seven scoring teams in baseball. Matt Moore counters for San Francisco and after a pair of quality outings after coming over from Tampa Bay, he struggled last time out against Pittsburgh. Overall, he has a very average 4.14 ERA. 10* (951) New York Mets |
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08-19-16 | Cubs v. Rockies +143 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 143 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
Chicago is 18-3 over its last 21 games but it has had a very favorable schedule over this stretch as 18 of those 21 games came at home. While the three road games did result in victories, the road has been unkind going back further as the Cubs are 6-9 over their last 15 games on the highway. The Rockies took two of three against Washington to open the week and while the home field has been pretty average this season, they have won nine of their last 15 games at Coors Field. Colorado was off on Thursday which has been a good situation as the Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games following an off day. Additionally, Colorado is 12-5 this season following a win by two runs or less. Kyle Hendricks takes the hill for the Cubs and he has been an under the radar pitcher all season being overshadowed but others in the rotation. He has a 2.19 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, both of which are best of all starters but Wrigley Field has been where he has been at his best. His ERA is 3.43 on the road where Chicago is just 4-6 in his 10 starts with only three of those being quality outings. Colorado turns to Tyler Anderson who is coming off a poor outing at Philadelphia but was lights out prior to that. He had allowed three runs or less in 10 of his first 11 starts and despite making his home at Coors Field, six of his eight home starts have been quality outings. The Cubs are just 5-10 in 15 road games this season against starters that allow 1.75 or fewer walks per game. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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08-19-16 | Rangers v. Rays +132 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The Rangers head to Tampa Bay following a home sweep of Oakland and have increased their lead to seven games over Seattle in the American League West. They have the second best home record in the American League and like most teams, they are much less dominant on the road and have played down to the level of competition as Texas is 0-5 in its last five road games against teams with a losing home record. Meanwhile the Rays are 4-0 in their last four home games against teams with a winning record and overall, they have won 10 of their last 14 home games. The pitching has been outstanding over that stretch and we can expect that to continue tonight. Matt Andriese is coming off his worst start of the season but we should see a bounceback here as he allowed three runs or less in nine of his first 10 starts and has pitched very well out of the bullpen. Overall, he has a 2.76 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home. Cole Hamels is the big reason this line is so high as he is having a very solid season. He is 12-4 with a 2.88 ERA but his 1.30 WHIP is a big concern and he has received just 2.25 rpg over his last four starts. Tampa Bay has a spectacular underdog situation on its side also as we play on underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that are averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg going up against an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or less, after scoring two runs or less. This situation is 95-76 (55.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Tampa Bay Rays |
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08-18-16 | Dodgers v. Phillies +135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 135 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
The Dodgers took Game Two of this series last night but sweeping will be a challenge as they have not swept a series on the road since the very first series of the season against San Diego. Los Angeles now has a 1.5-game lead in the National League West over the Giants as it has one of the best records in baseball since Clayton Kershaw went down while San Francisco has been awful since the All Star Break. Still, the Dodgers are just a game over .500 on the road and could be considered a false favorite tonight based on the pitching matchup. Philadelphia looks to improve to 4-2 on this homestand and after averaging 7.0 rpg in the first four games, the Phillies managed only two runs last night. That is a bit misleading however as they pounded out 11 hits, the same as the Dodgers, as they had seven runners in scoring position left on base with two outs. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last four games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Ross Stripling will be making his third start since re-entering the rotation following a demotion to the minors and heading to the bullpen after being recalled. While his first outing was good against Boston where he tossed five scoreless innings, he did not have a good start last time out against the Pirates as he allowed five runs in seven innings. Jerad Eickhoff gets the ball for Philadelphia and he is having a solid season with a 3.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 24 starts and he has been even better at home with a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 12 starts. Going back, the Phillies are 4-1 in his last five starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (954) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-18-16 | Brewers +270 v. Cubs | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
The four-game series between the Brewers and Cubs comes to an end today and while Chicago has dominated so far, the value is on the other side despite the Cubs ace taking the hill in the series finale. Milwaukee had its bats going in the final five games of its most recent homestand, averaging 6.2 rpg but it has been handcuffed here by scoring just two runs in the first three games of this series. The Brewers are 5-2 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Chicago has a comfortable 12.5-game lead in the National League Central and it heads to Colorado, San Diego and Los Angeles for a nine-game roadtrip making this day game one that should show little focus. There is also a good possibility of starters resting with big travel coming up. Jake Arrieta is the reason for the big number here but it is totally misleading at this point of the season. While Arrieta was unbeatable in the first part of the season, Chicago winning his first 10 starts, that has hardly been the case since then as the Cubs are just 5-8 over his last 13 starts. Overall, the Cubs have dropped over three units in his starts and they are 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Zach Davies goes for the Brewers and he is having a very solid season with a 3.80 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 21 starts. He is coming off a poor outing against the Reds as he allowed five runs but that was just the third start since the start of May that he has allowed four runs or more and in the previous two, he followed up with victories. In two career starts against Chicago, he has a 0.73 ERA over 12.1 innings. 10* (951) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-17-16 | Dodgers v. Phillies +158 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The Dodgers pounded the Philadelphia bullpen last night to move back to .500 on the road for the season. They have been a clutch team to close a series as Los Angeles is 17-8 on the season in Game Three and Four following a win but are just 18-22 in the first two games of a series after a victory. The offense has scored three runs or less in three of the previous four games and the Dodgers are 6-10 in their last 16 road games following a win in their previous road game. The Phillies had a three-game winning streak snapped last night but the value continues to be on their side as they are one of only two teams, Kansas City being the other, that has a losing record yet is still on the plus side in betting units. Going back, the Phillies are 16-5 in their last 21 games following a loss. Jake Thompson will be making his third career start and after getting pounded in his Major League debut, he settled down and picked up his first win against the Rockies. It was a far from perfect effort but it will give him some confidence. He is a solid prospect as he had a 2.50 ERA in 21 starts at Triple-A this year. Scott Kazmir gets the ball for Los Angeles and he is having a pretty average season with a 4.44 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 23 starts with the dodgers going just 12-11 in those games. He has yet to lose on the road with a 5-0 record but his ERA is 4.88 and the Dodgers are 1-4 in his no-decisions while only three of those 10 starts have been quality outings. 10* (906) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-17-16 | Padres +197 v. Rays | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
We are going back to the well today with the Padres for value reasons being the biggest advantage. -200 or more favorites and reserved for teams that are contending for playoff spots or Cy Young candidate starting pitchers and today, Tampa Bay is in neither category. The Rays have been 2-1 favorites only once this season and that was way back on May 25 which resulted in a loss. Additionally, they are just 27-34 at home which is fourth worst in baseball. San Diego has now dropped four straight games as the offense has not been able to get anything going, scoring just six runs over this stretch. The Padres have been a solid bounceback team however as of late, they are 4-1 in their last five games after losing the first two games of a series. Chris Archer gets the ball for the Rays and after three straight solid seasons, he has really struggled this year. He has a 4.39 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 25 starts with Tampa Bay winning just seven of those games. He is coming off a poor outing against the Yankees which snapped a four-game quality start streak and while his numbers are better at home, he is just 2-8 in 12 home starts. Christian Friedrich counters for San Diego and he is coming off a pair of average outings where he got little run support on top of it. The Padres are 4-0 in his last four starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game while the Rays are 0-4 in their last four games against left-handed starters. Additionally, they are hitting just .177 against left-handed pitching the last 10 games. 10* (925) San Diego Padres |
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08-16-16 | Padres +160 v. Rays | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
We lost with the Padres last night as Tampa Bay scored five runs in the eighth inning to win its second straight game. We will back the Padres again tonight however as San Diego is again getting a great price against a team with a worse record than it possesses and the home/road splits here are not that far different. Despite the defeat last night, the Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss. The Rays have not had many winning streaks this season and this marks just the fourth time since June 16 that they have won multiple games in a row and going back to that point, they are 17-36 in 53 games. Additionally, they are just 26-34 at home which is fourth worst in baseball. Tampa Bay gives the ball to Blake Snell who has a decent ERA overall of 3.18 but he has a 1.52 WHIP which is a better indication of how he has been pitching. Just four of 11 starts have been quality as he has not been able to go deep into games and Tampa Bay is just 3-8 in those 11 starts and now he comes in as the highest he has been favored by all season. The Padres are 4-0 in their last four games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. San Diego hands the ball to Edwin Jackson who has been very solid since entering the rotation. Four of his five starts have been quality, three coming against winning teams and two coming in two road starts where his ERA is 1.38. 10* (979) San Diego Padres |
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08-16-16 | Dodgers v. Phillies +149 | Top | 15-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The Dodgers are coming off an average 5-4 homestand but remain just a half-game behind the Giants in the National League West as San Francisco continues its second half swoon. Los Angeles is 14 games over .500 at home, the second biggest amount in the National League, but it is a game under .500 on the road while going 16-21 on the highway after an 11-7 start to open the season. The Phillies had an off day yesterday as well following a three-game home sweep of the Rockies and they are just a game under .500 at home. Philadelphia has exceeded all expectations this season despite still being a non-contender and going back, the Phillies are 7-0 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. We used this matchup in Los Angeles last week but Vince Velazquez posted his worst start of the season but he has been not nearly as good on the road as he has been at home. In nine home starts, he has a 1.72 ERA and 0.98 WHIP and would have more than his four wins if not for lack of consistent run support. The Dodgers counter with Kenta Maeda who was the winner in the matchup last week despite a pretty average outing as his offense got him off the hook. He has pitched decent on the road with a 3.28 ERA but just four of his 11 starts have been quality outings. The Dodgers have dropped 4.8 units on the road this season, second most of any team with a winning record and they are overpriced once again here. 10* (954) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-15-16 | Nationals v. Rockies +175 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Colorado returns home following a 1-4 roadtrip that included a series sweep at the hands of the Phillies. The Rockies not only carry that three-game losing streak but also possess a three-game home losing streak prior to the trip so duplicate streaks will try and be broken tonight. They are catching a big number at home which is mostly due to the opposing starter but anything can happen to any pitcher at Coors Field. The Rockies are 5-2 in their last seven games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Washington is coming off a successful 5-3 homestand and it is now 8.5 games ahead of the Marlins in the National League East so there is no reason to be putting on the gas. The Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Max Scherzer is on a solid run of eight straight quality starts but he has not gotten much run support and Washington is just 14-10 in his 24 starts which is why he is the second least profitable pitcher. His issue this year has been the long ball as his 24 home runs allowed, including 17 on the road, are the most in the National League and this park is not ideal for that. Colorado goes with Jorge De La Rosa who got off to a horrible start this season and was sent to the bullpen but has allowed more than three runs only once in 11 starts since returning to the rotation. The Rockies are 25-7 in his last 32 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (904) Colorado Rockies |
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08-15-16 | Padres +159 v. Rays | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
San Diego is getting a great price against a team with a worse record than it possesses and the home/road splits here are not that far different. The Padres roadtrip has not gotten off to a great start as they lost both series against the Pirates and Mets but they take a big step down in competition here. While losing has been more common than winning, San Diego has avoided long losing skids of late as it is 9-3 over its last 10 games following a loss. Tampa Bay salvaged a game in New York Sunday to avoid the sweep and things have not been going good all season. The Rays have yet to win a series in August and on the season, their 25-34 home record is fourth worst in baseball. It does not help that they are 3-7 in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record. San Diego sends Luis Perdomo to the hill and while his numbers are not great, he had poor performances early in the season out of the bullpen and since entering the rotation full time, he has allowed more than three runs just twice in 10 starts. The Padres are 5-2 in his last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game while the Rays are 13-29 in their last 42 games against right-handed starters. Tampa Bay counters with Drew Smyly who is on a run of four straight quality starts but he cannot be trusted at this price as he went through a stretch of posting a 8.03 ERA in nine starts right before this run. The Padres are 4-0 in their last four games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (919) San Diego Padres |
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08-14-16 | Angels +172 v. Indians | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
The Angels loss yesterday made it nine straight defeats as the offense has been unable to do anything of late, scoring just 11 runs over the last six games but today is a good opportunity for the bats to break out. Los Angeles has won five of its last seven Game Four contests and ending this roadtrip with a victory is huge. Cleveland has won the first three games of this homestand and look to make it five straight wins at home with a victory today but it has not thrived in this situation as the Indians have dropped nine straight games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Trevor Bauer gets the ball for the home team and he has been very inconsistent of late. After a string of eight straight starts of allowing three runs or less, he has posted a 6.60 ERA over his last six starts. He allowed no runs in 6.1 innings last time out but has followed up his last three solid outings with a dud in his next start and going back, the Indians are 3-13 in his last 16 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. The Angels turn to Jered Weaver who has been equally inconsistent but is in a situation where he has thrown well this season as he has a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in seven daytime starts so it is no surprise the Angels have won each of his last five starts during the day. 10* (967) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-14-16 | Diamondbacks +141 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-16 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
We lost with Arizona as the Red Sox rallied with five unanswered runs in the fifth and sixth innings to make it two straight wins to open this series. Boston remains two games out of first place in the American League East but has a big roadtrip coming up, starting Monday with a three-game set at Baltimore. The Diamondbacks fell back to .500 on the road which is still pretty solid considering they are 20 games under .500 at home which is a very strange home/road dichotomy in baseball. Prior to this series, they swept the Mets in three games and are again catching a solid price here in matchup of starting pitchers where something has to give. Zack Greinke will be making his second start since being activated from the disabled list and his first was a success as he allowed three runs in six innings against the Mets while throwing just 93 pitches. His home/road splits are similar to the team as a whole as he possesses a 5.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 home starts and a 2.14 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in eight road starts, all of which have resulted in Arizona wins. The Red Sox are 3-11 in their last 14 games against right-handed starters. The reason Boston is a hefty favorite is because of Rick Porcello who has thrived at Fenway Park this season. He is 11-0 here while Boston is 12-0 in his 12 home starts but his ERA of 3.12 is far from dominating and he has been fortunate to receive 7.1 rpg in those outings, something that will not come his way today. 10* (977) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-13-16 | Diamondbacks +183 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Arizona was coming off a sweep in New York to open the week but was unable to build on the momentum as it allowed eight runs in the first two innings to drop the series opener. The Diamondbacks have been pretty solid on the road this season as they are a game over .500 and the only team in baseball that has a losing record but possesses a winning road record. Boston has not been playing well as it is 8-13 over its last 21 games and has no business laying this number with this pitching matchup. Clay Buchholz had made only two relief appearances in his career before this season but was sent to the bullpen on a regular basis and has made 13 appearances in relief. He is making a start tonight in place of Steven Wright so the spot start does not mean he is guaranteed anything. He was horrible in the rotation at both times. He posted a 6.35 ERA in his first 10 starts and was then demoted from the rotation. In three starts after coming out of the bullpen the first time, he went 0-3, allowing 18 hits and 14 runs while walking seven and yielding five home runs in 14.1 innings. The Red Sox are 3-13 in his last 16 home starts against teams with a losing record. Archie Bradley has been pretty solid with the exception of a couple bad starts as he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and going back, the Red Sox are 2-11 in their last 13 games against right-handed starters. 10* (927) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-13-16 | Astros +145 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
The Astros took the opener of this series last night to make it four straight wins after dropping the opener of their roadtrip in Minnesota. Houston is still 7.5 games behind Texas in the American League West but are just two games out of the Wild Card but would still have to leapfrog three other teams. Toronto has now dropped into second place in the American League East with the loss coupled with the Baltimore win over the Giants and the Blue Jays are now just 2-4 in their last six games following a 9-3 run and they are a bit overpriced on Saturday based on the pitching matchup. Toronto has gone to a six-man rotation in an effort to keep Aaron Sanchez in a starting spot enabling him to cut his innings down but pitching on a week of rest may not be a solution. He is having a solid year but he has already surpassed his innings total of the last two seasons combined. He has a 10-2 record which is the one thing most will look at but the Blue Jays are 2-7 in his nine no-decisions so it is definitely a skewed record. While he is 3-0 during the day, he has a 4.9 ERA in six daytime starts with Toronto going just 3-3 in those games. Colin McHugh counters for Houston and he is coming off a pair of quality starts and he has been extremely solid since a pair of bad starts to open June as he has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts and the Astros have won his last seven Game Two starts. 10* (915) Houston Astros |
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08-12-16 | Pirates +154 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 154 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The Pirates are coming off a successful homestand where they went 4-2 in taking both of their series with the Reds and Padres. They take a big step up in competition this weekend but the line takes that into account and they are getting some serious value in this opener. Pittsburgh is just two games out of the Wild Card in the National League and are in a positive spot here as the Pirates are 7-2 in their last nine games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The Dodgers are a game out of first place in the National League West and are in good position in the Wild Card race where they have a four-game lead over Miami. The solid play of late has been surprising with the absence of Clayton Kershaw and the fact the Dodgers have the seventh lowest batting average in baseball. Ross Stripling will be making another spot start for Rich Hill and this will be just his second since mid-May. He was decent last Saturday but has really struggled at home overall as he has a 4.85 ERA in five starts, with just one of those being a quality outing. The Pirates counter with Ivan Nova who will be making his second start with the club following his arrival from the Yankees. He tossed a quality outing against the Reds and should show a lot of promise down the stretch in his move to the National League. Facing the Dodgers may seem daunting but that was the past and Nova has the edge of facing Los Angeles for the first time. 10* (961) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-12-16 | Angels +148 v. Indians | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
We lost with the Angels last night and it was never a contest as the Indians chased Jhoulys Chacin after just 1.1 innings as he was charged with seven runs allowed on six hits and three walks. We will come back with them again tonight as they are catching value based on the current losing skid which has reached seven games. The offense got a little bit going last night and its .269 road batting average is second best in baseball and best in the American League. Cleveland continues to have control of the American League Central as its lead is now four games thanks to the Tigers losing their last four games. The Indians have not been playing well however as they are just 13-16 over their last 29 games so the fact they still possess the lead in the division is pretty fortunate. Winning streaks have been few and far between as Cleveland has lost four straight games following a win while going 4-11 in their last 15 games following a victory. Carlos Carrasco gets the ball for the Indians who is coming off a quality outing in his last start but he has not been good at Progressive Field as he has a 4.81 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in eight starts. The Indians are 5-16 in his last 21 home starts against teams with a losing record. Tyler Skaggs is making his fourth start of the season after missing close to two years because of Tommy John surgery. He has been solid with a 2.04 ERA over 17.2 innings and that should continue tonight. 10* (967) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-11-16 | Cardinals +153 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The National League Central is all but locked up for the Cubs which have a 12-game lead over St. Louis thanks to their ninth straight win last night. The pitching has been outstanding as Chicago has allowed two runs or less in seven of those games including five straight and while the matchup tonight looks like it will hit six in a row, that is far from automatic. The Cardinals best playoff chance is in the Wild Card where they are currently tied with Miami for the second spot behind the Dodgers. St. Louis is coming off a disappointing 3-3 homestand against the two worst teams in the National League and home field has been an issue all year but on the road, the 32-21 record is best in all of baseball and more recent, the Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Carlos Martinez looks to keep the winning going on the highway and he has played a huge part in the success of it. He is 6-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine road starts and that ERA in close to two runs lower than his ERA at home. Going back, the Cardinals are 19-7 in his last 26 road starts. Chicago turns to Jon Lester who is coming off a pair of quality outings which came after rough four-game stretch to start July. While he has been dominating at home, this is his first start against St. Louis this season and last year, the Cubs were just 1-5 in his six starts against the Cardinals which are also 8-2 in their last 10 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 10* (907) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-11-16 | Angels +207 v. Indians | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Cleveland continues to have control of the American League Central as its lead is now 3.5 games thanks to the Tigers losing their last four games. The Indians have not been playing well however as they are just 12-16 over their last 28 games so the fact they still possess the lead in the division is pretty fortunate. Going back, the Indians are 1-9 in their last 10 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. The Angels came out of the All Star Break with a six-game winning streak but it has been downhill since as they have matched that winning streak with a current six-game losing streak. The offense has managed just three runs over the last three games and many will predict that to continue tonight but not on this end as the contrarian approach here is yielding a massive underdog number. Corey Kluber is one of the reasons the Indians are the biggest consensus home play on the board tonight but winning is far from automatic here. He has been on a solid run of late thanks to great run support but overall, Cleveland is just 11-11 in his 22 starts including a 5-4 record at home and he has been the Indians least profitable pitcher this season. While it may be just pure blind bad luck, it cannot be ignored that the Indians are 4-14 in his last 18 series opening starts. Jhoulys Chacin is coming out of the bullpen to take the rotation spot of Tim Lincecum and while Chacin was pretty bad over his last few starts, the time off from the rotation is a help. Cleveland has won just one of its last six games against right-handed starters. 10* (915) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-10-16 | Yankees +169 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-4 | Win | 169 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Boston took the opener of this series last night to open its homestand and was able to pull within one and a half games of Baltimore and Toronto in the American League East as both of those teams lost. The Red Sox have been playing average ball for a while as they are just 7-11 over their last 18 games and have won just two of their last seven games following a win. New York has been pretty average all season but it is catching a solid number here that we can take advantage of. The Yankees have been able to avoid any big losing skids of late though as they are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. The Yankees give the ball to Nathan Eovaldi who was having a pretty tough season and was sent to the bullpen for a couple weeks. He was put back into the rotation and has been solid, posting a 3.60 ERA and it could be even if not for a couple bad pitches where he allowed a long ball which included a three-run shot in his last start against the Mets. Going back, the Yankees are 10-4 in his last 14 starts against teams with a winning record while the Red Sox are 2-9 in their last 11 games against right-handed starters. Boston counters with Drew Pomeranz who was acquired from San Diego well before the trade deadline and he has been pretty average after posting awesome numbers with the Padres. He has posted two quality outings in his four starts with the Red Sox and the last one could have been a lot worse than it turned out as he walked six in six innings against Seattle. 10* (965) New York Yankees |
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08-10-16 | Padres +150 v. Pirates | Top | 4-0 | Win | 150 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Pittsburgh remains in the National League Wild Card hunt after a win last night but despite being just 2.5 games out, the Pirates have four teams ahead of them that they will have to pass so it is not looking very good. They have been playing pretty bad baseball since a hot start to July as they have gone just 10-12 over their last 22 games while losing their last four games following a game where they scored five runs or more. The Padres have been pretty bad all season, one in which there was talk of contention in the National League West but a 7-15 start to the season set the tone. While not all has gone well, San Diego has won seven of its last nine games following a win so the Padres have been a solid bounce back team and we can expect the same tonight. Edwin Jackson takes the hill for San Diego and while his numbers are below average in his limited time here, that is due to one bad start. In four starts with the Padres, he has tossed three quality outings including one in his lone road start against the Nationals. Pittsburgh is hitting just .204 against right-handed pitching over its last 10 games. The Pirates hand the ball to Ryan Vogelsong who is coming off a very impressive outing against the Braves. That was his first start since May after he was put on the 60-day DL when he got hit by a pitch in the face so his work will likely be limited still. This is a very high price for an unproven starter on a pretty average team. 10* (955) San Diego Padres |
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08-09-16 | Phillies +192 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
We lost with the Phillies last night as the Dodgers erupted for five runs in the first inning and held on for a 9-4 victory. Philadelphia has now alternated wins and losses on this current roadtrip and going back, it has won five straight games following a loss while going 15-4 in their last 19 games after a defeat which is very strong for a team sitting 10 games under .500. The Dodgers have now won three straight games to remain a game behind the Giants in the National League West and are now four games up in the Wild Card standings. They have been solid at home but are paying the price for it as they closed at -260 last night and will be up over -200 by game time tonight. Vince Velazquez gets the ball for the Phillies and he has been their most consistent starter with a 3.33 ERA in 19 starts and we are going the contrarian route here as they have lost his last four outings. He has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and the Phillies are 6-2 in his last eight starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles counters with Kenta Maeda who has also been solid this season with a 3.22 ERA in 22 starts but he has not been as strong of late. He has posted a 4.30 ERA over his last eight starts and the Dodgers have won just five of his 11 home starts. 10* (911) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-09-16 | Reds +170 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 170 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Cincinnati was well on its way to a second straight win last night but the bullpen blew a 4-0 lead by allowing five runs in the ninth inning, all with two outs, concluding a with a walk off base on balls. The Reds are now 1-3 on this current roadtrip but have been playing solid enough to avoid many losing streaks as they are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss. The Cardinals moved into a tie with Miami for the second Wild Card spot in the National League but have been very inconsistent lately, going just 3-6 over their last nine games and they are the only team in the Wild Card hunt with a losing record at home as they are just 27-32 at Busch Stadium. We won with the Reds in this same pitching matchup last week as Brandon Finnegan outdueled Mike Leake. Finnegan has not allowed a run in his last two starts including six shutout innings against St. Louis last week and in three starts against the Cardinals this season, he has allowed just two earned runs over 18 innings. The Cardinals are 4-11 in their last 15 games against left-handed starters. Leake has really struggled of late as he has posted a 10.69 ERA in his last three starts, allowing at least six runs in each. He has a 4.57 ERA at home in 10 starts, seven of which have resulted in Cardinals losses. 10* (909) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-08-16 | Phillies +212 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
The Dodgers continue to lead the National League Wild Card chase and are closing in on San Francisco in their division. After getting shutout by Steven Wright on Friday, Los Angeles bounced back with a pair of wins over the weekend against Boston. The Dodgers have certainly held their own after Clayton Kershaw went down but have won just once in their last five games following a victory. Philadelphia continues to fight as it is coming off a series win in San Diego and is a pretty respectable five games under .500 on the road while gaining 6.4 units of profit in those games because of big prices like the one for tonight. The Phillies have won five straight series openers and send Zach Eflin to the hill who looks to bounce back from a pair of bad outings. Prior to that, he had tossed six straight quality outings so he is definitely capable of a strong outing in this spot. Philadelphia has won five of his last seven starts and the Dodgers are hitting just .228 in their last 10 games against right-handed pitching. Los Angeles hands the ball to Julio Urias who has been pretty inconsistent this season based on his 1.57 WHIP. He has lasted more than five innings only once in his nine starts and has been fortunate to receive solid run support. While the Dodgers are 4-0 in his four home starts, they have won those games by a combined score of just 18-13. 10* (957) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-08-16 | Giants +130 v. Marlins | Top | 8-7 | Win | 130 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The Giants lead in the National League West has all but vanished as they lead the Dodgers by just one game after dropping the first two series on this roadtrip. That lead was 6.5 games at the All Star Break but it has been a tough second half for San Francisco as both offense and pitching have been inconsistent. Going back, the Giants are 15-7 in their last 22 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Miami remains in the hunt for a National League Wild Card berth as it currently has hold of the second spot despite coming off a 2-4 roadtrip. The offense caught fire over the weekend but that came in Colorado where many teams find success with the bats. The Marlins are just 2-6 in their last eight games following a win and are overpriced tonight with Jose Fernandez taking the hill. He is usually automatic at home which is the reason he is typically a large chalk in these situations despite facing a quality opponent with a quality starter. The Marlins dropped his last home start and overall, have dropped five of his last nine games. Johnny Cueto counters for the Giants and is a sure take at this price despite a few recent outings that have not gone his way. He has been great on the road with a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 12 starts, 10 of which have resulted in Giants wins. 10* (951) San Francisco Giants |
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08-07-16 | Cubs v. A's +149 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Cubs have taken the first two games of this series behind solid starting pitching from Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta but we should see a little regression today. Chicago has won six straight games and once again has a double-digit game lead in the National League Central. Oakland meanwhile has dropped seven of its last eight games but all that does here is promote value as it gets a pitching matchup much more in its favor than the previous two games in this series. Despite the losses Friday and Saturday, Oakland is 24-9 in its last 33 interleague home games against teams with a winning record. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for Chicago and many will be lining up on him again. He is coming off a seven-hit shutout in his last start against Miami and that happened to be the fourth time in his last five outings that he has not allowed a run. All four of those shutout appearances came at home however where Hendricks has a sensational 1.19 ERA in 11 starts but the road has not been nearly as successful as he has a 3.75 ERA which is not bad but just two of his nine starts have resulted in quality outings. Oakland counters with Sean Manaea who has been very steady at home, allowing three runs or less in six of his last seven starts and the A's are 4-0 in his last four starts at home. 10* (928) Oakland A's |
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08-07-16 | Reds +173 v. Pirates | Top | 7-3 | Win | 173 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Pittsburgh is back to two games over .500 thanks to a pair of wins to open this series and sits two games back in the weak National League Wild Card race. The Pirates have been very inconsistent this season and this is just the fourth time over the last five weeks than they have won consecutive games while failing to win three straight over that stretch, going 0-3 the three times trying to win three straight. Additionally, the Pirates are 1-4 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Reds have had a rough season overall but are playing solid now despite the losses to open this series as they are 12-8 over their last 20 games and have won seven of their last eight games following a loss while going 8-2 in their last 10 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Cincinnati hands the ball to Dan Straily who has put together a very impressive run. He has tossed six straight quality starts including four in a row since the All Star Break and in two starts against the Pirates this season, he has allowed just two runs over six innings both times. Gerrit Cole has been the Pirates ace since 2013 and while he is having a solid season, his WHIP and BAA are both career high numbers. The Reds have been a nemesis as well as in seven career starts, he is 0-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. 10* (901) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-06-16 | Rangers +137 v. Astros | Top | 3-2 | Win | 137 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Rangers got buzzsawed last night as Dallas Keuchel tossed a three-hit shutout for Houston to snap a three-game losing streak and decrease its deficit to 5.5 games in the American League West. Pitching has been the key of late as the Astros have allowed just 10 runs during this homestand but as still just 2-3 as the offense has not been able to produce and the Astros are 0-4 in their last four games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Texas is just 1-3 on this roadtrip after a four-game winning streak to close its most recent homestand and while being a game under .500 on the road, the Rangers are catching a great number here. After closing his tenure in Atlanta with a quality start, Lucas Harrell posted a quality outing in his first game with Texas and looks to build on that in his first start against his former club. In six starts overall, he has a solid 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP and he has been best on the road with a 2.29 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in three starts on the highway. Houston turns to Doug Fister who has been a good boost to the rotation but has been inconsistent of late. He has a 4.29 ERA over his last seven starts and Houston is just 2-5 in his last seven starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while the Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 games against right-handed starters. 10* (969) Texas Rangers |
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08-06-16 | Giants +200 v. Nationals | Top | 7-1 | Win | 200 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
It is not often you see a team leading its division and possessing the seventh best record in baseball as a 2-1 underdog but that is the case for Giants tonight. They dropped the opener of this series last night but remain two games ahead of the Dodgers in the National League West and while the recent stretch has not been great, there is too much value to pass up on them here. The win was the fourth straight for Washington and it maintains a big lead in the National League East, currently seven games over the Mets. The recent streak coupled with the pitching of Stephen Strasburg is the reason for the big line which sets up a solid go against contrarian opportunity. He is having a Cy Young season with a 15-1 record to go along with a 2.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 20 starts but now is in the position of being favored by the biggest amount he has been against a winning team all season. Matt Cain counters for San Francisco and while the start to his season was awful, he has been pitching a lot better. After posting a 7.84 ERA through his first six starts, he has put up only one bad outing over his last eight games and last time out, he did not allow a run or a hit against Washington. The Nationals are hitting just .241 at home against right-handed pitching. 10* (953) San Francisco Giants |
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08-05-16 | Cubs v. A's +177 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The Cubs are coming off a very successful homestand where they went 7-1 to increase their lead to 9.5 games in the National League Central. They are 20 games over .500 at home which is a Major League best but Chicago is just five games over .500 on the road and have dropped nine of its last 12 games on the highway. Oakland snapped a five-game slide with a win over the Angels on Thursday to conclude a disappointing 3-6 roadtrip. While home field has not been great this season, Oakland has won seven of its last 10 home games and going back, it is 27-9 in its last 36 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Dillon Overton gets the ball for Oakland and he has been hot and cold since entering the rotation but coming off a bad start, we should see a rebound tonight. He posted a quality start in his last home outing against Houston and Chicago is hitting just .227 in its last 10 games against left-handed pitching. Jon Lester counters for the Cubs and while his season overall has been solid, pitching away from home has not. He has a 1.99 ERA at home but that balloons to 4.03 on the road and his last three road starts have resulted in a disastrous 18.36 ERA. Oakland has torched left-handed pitching for a .286 average over its last 10 games and is in a great spot tonight as a huge home underdog to pull off the upset. 10* (928) Oakland A's |
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08-05-16 | Braves +219 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
We played against St. Louis yesterday and will do so again Friday as the Cardinals are a very overvalued favorite. They are coming off a 5-5 roadtrip and coupled with the Cubs four-game winning streak, they are now 9.5 games behind Chicago in the National League Central. St. Louis is right in the thick of the Wild Card race however but even with that, being 25-30 at home gives them no value at this point. The Braves finished their homestand 4-3 following a pair wins over the Pirates and have won six of their last nine games after getting swept in four games in Colorado. They did follow that up with two wins in Minnesota while overall, their road record is just two games worse than the Cardinals home record and they are 5-2 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. They send Joel De La Cruz to the hill who will be making his fourth spot start of the season. His last came on Sunday and it was a solid outing that was interrupted because of a rain delay and despite a lack of wins, he has a decent 3.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 23.2 innings which includes seven relief appearances. The Cardinals counter with Jaime Garcia who is coming off a bad outing in Miami and going back, his last five starts have resulted in non-quality performances. Only five of his 16 starts as a favorite have been quality outings and the Cardinals are 2-5 in his last seven home starts. 10* (905) Atlanta Braves |
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08-04-16 | Cardinals v. Reds +132 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 132 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
We won with the Reds in this series opener and we will back them again in the series finale this afternoon. St. Louis took Game Two last night after a four-run first inning to improve to a Major League best 32-20 on the road which is certainly the main reason they are a significant road favorite once again. The Cardinals are just 9-8 in their last 17 roadies however including an average 5-4 record on this current roadtrip. It has been a long, rough season for Cincinnati but to its credit, it has been playing a lot better of late. The Reds are 11-6 since the All Star Break and probably most impressive is that they are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. They turn to Brandon Finnegan who has been pretty average this season but is coming off one of his better starts where he allowed no runs and four hits in six innings against the Padres. While his home stats do not look impressive, they are skewed by just a couple bad outings as he has allowed three runs or less in eight of ten home starts. The Cardinals are 2-7 in their last nine games against left-handed starters while hitting a mere .233 on the road this season against lefties. St. Louis counters with Mike Leake who has been pretty average as well in his first year with the Cardinals. He has allowed six runs in each of his last two starts and his first outing against his former club back in June yielded the same amount in a 7-6 loss to the Reds. 10* (952) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-03-16 | Brewers v. Padres +137 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 137 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a very bad line and we are getting a ton of value on the Padres. San Diego opened this series with a win on Monday but dropped Game Two last night by a run and look to take the series this afternoon before hosting the Phillies starting on Friday. Home field has not been great as the Padres are three games under .500 at Petco Park but they have been able to avoid big losing streaks, winning five of their last six games following a loss. Milwaukee picked up a rare road win last night as it was just its 18th road victory of the season and more recently, the Brewers are just 7-17 in their last 24 road games. Additionally, Milwaukee has only one win in its last 12 contests in Game Three of a series. Junior Guerra is the reason the Brewers are favored on the road as he has been having a great rookie season but this is the largest he has been favored by on the road this year and the first time he has been a road favorite since his first start in June. This will be his second start against the Padres this season and while the first one was a solid one, San Diego has the edge of already facing him once. Edwin Jackson counters for the Padres and while he is coming off a poor outing last time out, he posted a pair of quality starts after entering the rotation right after the All Star Break. The Brewers are 18-42 in their last 60 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (906) San Diego Padres |
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08-03-16 | Marlins +186 v. Cubs | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
The Cubs have seen their lead grow to nine games in the National League Central thanks to a three-game winning streak coupled with a three-game losing skid from St. Louis. Chicago is 6-1 on this current homestand and is laying a hefty number that has a lot more on the line at this point. Miami is currently sitting in the second Wild Card spot in the National League but there is little room for error there are four teams within three and a half games. The Marlins have lost consecutive games for just the fourth time in a month and they have not dropped three straight games since their last three games of June and are currently on a 9-3 run in their last 12 games following a loss. Tom Koehler has been all over the place this season. After nine straight starts of allowing three runs or less, he posted five straight non-quality starts but has put up two straight quality outings so he is back on a good run. While those two came against the Phillies, he has pitched well against the Cubs including allowing just three runs in 10.1 innings over two starts at Wrigley Field. The Marlins are 5-1 in his last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. John Lackey is also coming off a pair of quality outings but after a great start to the season, he has slowed down with a 5.70 ERA over his last seven starts. The Cubs are just 2-6 in his last eight starts and 1-4 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (901) Miami Marlins |
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08-02-16 | Cardinals v. Reds +150 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 150 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Cardinals did little at the trade deadline to fortify their team to make a postseason run despite being just a half-game out of the Wild Card in the National League. They have started this roadtrip at 4-3 but are riding a two-game losing streak and they are again a heavy road favorite here based on a lot of factors, most notably the starting pitcher. Cincinnati traded away its best offensive player as it dealt Jay Bruce to the Mets but that is not a huge concern here as the Reds offense has been weak regardless. The pitching has been the biggest concern but the damage has mostly come on the road and they send their top start to the hill tonight backed by the fact they have won five straight series openers. Dan Straily has been outstanding this season with just a few bad outings to his credit and over his last five starts, he has posted a 2.40 ERA with all of those being quality outings. Overall he has a 3.21 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 10 home starts with the Reds winning seven of those. Adam Wainwright counters for the Cardinals and he is the reason the price is so high. He has been pitching better of late after a bad start to the season but he continues to struggle away from Busch Stadium as his road ERA is a whopping 6.14 compared to a 2.58 ERA at home. Just two of his last seven starts away from home have been quality outings and the large run support he has received cannot be expected tonight. 10* (956) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-02-16 | Giants v. Phillies +199 | Top | 8-13 | Win | 199 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
After a 3-4 homestand, the Giants hit the road with a two-game lead over the Dodgers in the National League West and the pressure is on after Los Angeles made some big moves at the trade deadline. When San Francisco headed into the All Star Break, it had a 6.5-game lead but it has gone 4-11 since then including a 1-7 roadtrip that opened the second half. Playing the Phillies may seem like a chance to break out but Philadelphia has overachieved all season and is far from an easy win for opposing teams like it has been in the past. They are coming off a 4-6 roadtrip but lost consecutive games only twice and going back, they are 12-4 in their last 16 games following a loss. The Giants turn to their ace tonight and while Madison Bumgarner has posted a 2.09 ERA on the season, San Francisco has won just 13 of his 22 starts which equates to losing profits because of the high prices and we are seeing that again here. He has posted a 4.50 ERA in his three starts against Philadelphia since last season and the Giants are 2-5 in his last 7 starts against teams with a losing record. Zach Eflin has made nine starts for the Phillies and seven of those have been outstanding. He opened with a bad game and his last start was equally as bad but a bounce back is expected here with his 2.61 ERA and 0.87 WHIP at home. Additionally, the Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 games against right-handed starters. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-01-16 | Royals +117 v. Rays | Top | 3-0 | Win | 117 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Kansas City and Tampa Bay open their four-game series with each coming off opposite weekend results. The Royals opened their roadtrip by getting swept at Texas as they were outscored 18-9 and overall they have dropped eight of their last nine games to fall a distant 12 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central. Tampa Bay meanwhile swept the Yankees to open its homestand and increase its winning streak to four games. It has been a tough season for the Rays as despite the recent winning streak, they are just 11-29 over their last 40 games. Kansas City turns to Danny Duffy who has been sensational since entering the rotation in mid-May. He has made 14 starts and has posted a 3.27 ERA in those games over 82.2 innings. The Royals have won 11 of those 14 starts and he has been by far the most profitable pitcher in the rotation thanks to allowing three runs or less in 12 of those 14 outings. The Rays counter with Chris Archer who has not had the season many expected. He has a 4.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 22 starts with Tampa Bay winning just six of those. He has been solid at home this year with a 2.95 ERA in 10 starts but the Rays have won only two of those as his run support has been abysmal. They have lost six straight at home and are also 0-7 in his last seven starts following a quality performance in his last outing. 10* (907) Kansas City Royals |
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07-31-16 | A's +173 v. Indians | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Oakland let us down last night as a four-run fourth by Cleveland did them in and they look to avoid the three-game sweep this afternoon. Oakland has now won six of its last eight games following a loss while winning seven of its last nine games after its opponent scored five or more runs in its last game. As mentioned yesterday, they have avoided the big losing streaks as they are 11-8 over their last 19 games and while that may not seem like anything great, 10 of those wins were as underdogs. Cleveland remains 4.5 games ahead of Detroit in the American League Central as the Tigers have won five straight and the Indians have had a losing month of July. The Indians have won only two of their last eight games following a victory and while they turn to their ace today, it has not been an ace-like type of season. While Corey Kluber has turned things around in a big way, the wins have not been coming. Cleveland has won just nine of his 20 starts and are just 1-4 in his last five starts following a quality outing in his last start. Sony Gray is another team ace that is not having that type of season as he has struggled with consistency and his four starts where he has allowed seven runs in each does not help. He posted a quality start last time out and going back, Oakland is 14-2 in his last 16 Sunday starts. 10* (969) Oakland A's |
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07-31-16 | Orioles +158 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-2 | Win | 158 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
We lost with the Orioles yesterday but will come back with them here in a game in which they look to avoid the three-game sweep as well as put an end to a five-game skid before starting a big series with the Rangers. Baltimore has now fallen into second place in the American League East, a half-game behind Toronto. The Blue Jays have won five of its last six games to leapfrog the Orioles and are once again a hefty favorite today as they have been playing exceptional at home but the pitching matchup is not that much of an advantage. Aaron Sanchez is having a career year in his first year as a full time starter as he is 11-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 20 starts but he has done his best work on the road. He has a 3.56 ERA at home in nine starts which is definitely solid but that ERA drops to 2.11 in 11 road outings and his ERA differential between day and night is a rather large 2.40 (4.55 day/2.15 night). The Orioles have won five of their last seven games against starters with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Baltimore turns to Chris Tillman who is coming off one of his worst starts of the season but looks to be in good shape for a bounce back It is hard to overlook the fact that he has a 3.47 ERA and the Orioles have won 18 of his 22 starts. We played against him last time out as he fell to Colorado but knowing the Orioles are 11-0 in his last 11 starts against the American League East and 6-0 in his six daytime starts this season, we feel confident for a victory here. 10* (965) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-30-16 | A's +172 v. Indians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Oakland is coming off a tough loss last night as it blew a 3-0 lead against the Indians to go on to lose 5-3 which was just its second loss in its last seven games. They have avoided the big losing streaks as they are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss while going 11-7 over that stretch and while that may not seem like anything great, 10 of those wins were are underdogs. Cleveland has seen it lead continue to slip in the American League Central as it is at 4.5 games after a 10-12 start to the month of July. While Oakland has been great after a loss, the Indians are just 1-6 in their last seven games following a win. The Indians hand the ball to Josh Tomlin who is having a very strong season with a 10-3 record to go along with a 3.48 ERA. After a six-game quality start run, he has struggled with a 4.91 ERA over his last three starts and the long ball has been a real big problem as his 24 home runs allowed are fourth most in baseball. Oakland is 10-3 in its last 13 road games against right-handed starters. Oakland counters with Dillon Overton who is making just his fourth start of his young career. He has made three spot starts for the A's this season, most recently taking a no-decision after allowing three runs in 6.1 innings against the Astros on July 19 so he comes in with some positive momentum and it is no fluke as he is 10-4 with a 3.21 ERA in 16 starts at AAA Nashville. 10* (921) Oakland A's |
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07-30-16 | Orioles +167 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
The Blue Jays took the opener of this series last night to pull within a half-game of Baltimore in the American League East. Toronto has now won four of its last five games after dropping the first two games of this homestand against Seattle. Despite what looks like a massive pitching mismatch on paper, Toronto seems pretty overpriced here against a team it still trails in the standings. Baltimore has now lost four straight games following a five-game winning streak and is in jeopardy of losing their divisional lead with a bad performance today. Going back, the Orioles are 11-4 in their last 15 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. J.A. Happ is having a career year but we are going contrarian against him here. He is 13-3 which is a career high for victories and Toronto has now won his last eight outings. Now he comes in as an overpriced favorite and the Orioles have given him issues as he has allowed four runs in three of his last four starts against them. Baltimore turns to Yovani Gallardo who is having a poor season with a 5.37 ERA in 12 starts after missing nearly two months earlier in the season. He has not been horrible lately though as he has had only one bad outing in his last eight starts since coming back and overall, Baltimore is 8-4 in those 12 games. Additionally, the Orioles are 4-0 in his last four starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (915) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-29-16 | Nationals v. Giants +131 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
We played against the Giants last night and the Nationals provided a win but we are going the opposite way tonight with San Francisco being a hefty home underdog. The Giants have struggled the last couple weeks and are now just two games ahead of the Dodgers in the National League West. Despite the loss last night, the Giants are 5-1 in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Washington has now won two straight games but is still just 4-6 over its last 10 games and this is just the eighth time since early June the Nationals have been a road favorite, going 3-4 in the previous seven games. Max Scherzer has been involved in three of those and Washington dropped two of those at Milwaukee and at San Diego. He is on a run of five straight quality starts and he has been favored in all of his previous 21 starts this season, going just 12-9 in those games. He is no doubt worthy of the road price but his lone start here last year was far from successful as he allowed six runs in just three innings in an 8-5 loss. San Francisco turns to Jeff Samardzija who has really struggled of late by allowing four runs or more in five of his last six starts. Four of those were on the road however and this will be just his eighth home start of the season against 13 road starts. 10* (962) San Francisco Giants |
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07-29-16 | Phillies v. Braves +135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 135 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Phillies come into tonight as the road favorite for the second straight game and just the fifth time all season. Friday marks the biggest number they have put down this season on the highway and it is far from justified. Philadelphia has been better than advertised but is still ten games under .500 overall and July has been very inconsistent as the Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven games following a win. The Braves had their two game winning streak snapped yesterday and while its 14-37 home record is very unappealing, the schedule has been brutal from the start. Atlanta was coming off a nine-game roadtrip prior to last night so settling in tonight will be easier. The Phillies turn to Vince Velazquez who had his three-game quality start streak snapped in his last outing against the Pirates, allowing four runs in six innings in a 5-4 loss. He had solid command toward the end of June but he has issued 30 walks over his last five starts which is a big problem. The Braves counter with Tyrell Jenkins who is coming off an awful start but that took place at Coors Field so it can be forgiven. His first two career starts were good as he allowed just three runs combined in 10.2 innings and after three starts overall, this marks his first start at home. 10* (956) Atlanta Braves |
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07-28-16 | Nationals +130 v. Giants | Top | 4-2 | Win | 130 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Washington avoided the two-game sweep with a win over the Indians on Wednesday and now it looks to string together consecutive wins for the first time since the first two games coming out of the All Star Break. Since suffering through a seven-game road losing streak, the Nationals are 5-2 over their last seven games on the highway. The Giants have struggled out of the gate in the second half as they are 2-9 in their last 11 games and have seen their lead shrink to 2.5 games in the National League West. Most of the dame came on the road but a series loss at home against the Reds shows the struggles. San Francisco has won just four of 12 series openers following a loss. Last week we went contrarian against Chris Tillman and the Orioles as they were 12-0 at home with him on the hill and now we are going the same route against Johnny Cueto who is a perfect 10-0 this season when playing under the lights. The price tag seems small which is a big reason the Giants are a big consensus play tonight. Overall, he is having a very strong season but he has not been at the top of game of late, posting a 4.09 ERA over his last five starts. Washington counters with Tanner Roark who is also having a very solid season. He is coming off a poor outing last time out but it was just the sixth time he allowed four or more earned runs. In the previous five follow up starts, he posted a quality outing in every one, putting up an incredible 1.00 ERA over 36 innings. The Nationals are 5-1 in his last six road starts while the Giants are 1-8 in their last nine games against right-handed starters. 10* (909) Washington Nationals |
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07-28-16 | Red Sox v. Angels +157 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 157 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
While the playoffs will not be taking place for the Angels, they have been playing pretty solid since early July as they are 12-6 over their last 18 games. They head home where they have won six in a row and they are the only team in baseball that has a losing record yet is positive in run differential. Boston meanwhile has dropped three straight games after getting swept at home against the Tigers following a disappointing 2-2 home split with the Twins. The Red Sox are 21-19 on the road and are extremely overpriced because of their starter who has been pretty disappointing this year. David Price is coming off his second straight non-quality start to open the second half of the season as he allowed five runs on 11 hits against the lowly Twins. It was the second straight start Price has allowed 11 hits and the sixth time in his last seven outings that he's given up eight or more hits in a game. He has been all over the place this season and his work on the road has been poor as he has a 4.77 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in nine starts and has not tossed a quality road start over his last three outings on the highway. Jered Weaver is having his worst year statistically with a 5.32 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 19 starts but he has shown the ability to pitch like he used to. He allowed six runs in four innings in his last start and that was the sixth time he has allowed five or more runs. In the previous five instances, he followed up with a quality start four times including the last two where he allowed just one run in 15 combined innings. 10* (914) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-27-16 | Rays +173 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 173 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
The struggles for the Rays continues as they lost their fourth straight games last night to fall to 38-61 on the season, the third worst record in baseball. Even more frustrating is the fact that all four of those losses came by just one run and they possess the worst record in baseball in one run games at 7-17. The pitching has been good enough to win every game over the last seven games and that is the case again today. The Dodgers won their third straight game last night to remain two and a half games behind the Giants in the National League West. They have not been overly consistent however as they are just 6-4 since the All Star Break and they have a tough situation today as they are hitting just .217 on the season against lefties including a mere .196 at home. Tampa Bay sends Matt Moore to the hill in hopes of keeping the Dodgers bats quiet and while he has been just average this season, he is in the midst of his best run as he has tossed five straight quality starts, posting a 2.38 ERA in the process. He has been at his best when the sun is out as he is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA in nine daytime starts, seven of which have been quality performances. The Dodgers go with Brandon McCarthy who is coming off a pair of quality starts but both resulted in losses. This will be just his fifth start of the season after coming back from Tommy John surgery. 10* (971) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-27-16 | Phillies +157 v. Marlins | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
The Phillies were blanked last night 5-0 after shutting out the Marlins the previous night and they look to return the favor today. Philadelphia is 2-3 on this current roadtrip and five games under .500 overall on the highway which is far from awful. Going back, the Phillies are 10-2 in their last 12 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game and 10-3 in their last 13 games following a loss. Miami snapped a 24-inning scoreless streak with a run in the sixth inning and then broke out with four runs in the eighth inning but the offense remains a big concern. The Marlins have dropped three straight games following a victory while going 1-5 in their last six games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Philadelphia sends Zach Eflin to the hill and he has been sensational. After allowing eight runs in just 2.2 innings in his Major League debut, he has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last seven starts, the last six resulting in quality outings and the seventh one missing by just a third of an inning. Adam Conley counter for the Marlins and he has been pretty solid for the most part with a 3.58 ERA on the season. That ERA improves at home but in nine home starts, just three have been quality outings and Miami is just 5-4 in those games so laying a big number is questionable. The Marlins are 3-8 in his last 11 starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (951) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-26-16 | Braves +188 v. Twins | Top | 2-0 | Win | 188 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a huge value play as Minnesota comes in as a heavy favorite for no apparent reason. In their first 98 games, the Twins have been a favorite only 20 times but they failed to win in 11 of those games and tonight they are favored by the biggest amount they have been all season. Minnesota has the second worst record in baseball and has no business laying this type of number. The Braves are typically on this side of the line as they too are having a rough season but considering they are just 4.5 games worse than Minnesota, they are loaded with value here. Despite being 19-30 on the road, Atlanta is plus units on the highway thanks to prices like this. The Braves hand the ball to Lucas Harrell who is making just his fifth start of the season and only his eighth start since 2013 but he showed prior to the break what he is capable of as he allowed two runs in 13.2 combined innings over two starts. The Twins are 7-21 in their last 28 home games against right-handed starters. Minnesota counters with Ervin Santana who has been pitching well but has had a tough season overall as the Twins are just 4-14 in his 18 starts. He gets little to no run support behind an offense that is not going to intimidate anyone and going back, the Twins are 2-9 in his last 11 home starts while going 0-7 in his last seven series openers. 10* (925) Atlanta Braves |
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07-26-16 | Rockies +183 v. Orioles | Top | 6-3 | Win | 183 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Baltimore was able to sneak out a win last night in extra innings over the Rockies for its fifth straight victory following a four-game skid. The Orioles are now 2.5 games in front of Boston in the American League East as their home dominance continues but we are going contrarian here at a very favorable price. Colorado had its four-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night but the Rockies have been a solid bounce back team of late as they are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. The Orioles are the biggest consensus play on the card which does not come as a surprise considering the fact that Chris Tillman is on the mound. He is having a great season as he is 14-2 with a 3.18 ERA over 21 starts but the real story is his home production as the Orioles are a perfect 12-0 in his 12 home outings so many will be banking on a 13th consecutive win. He has gotten a ton of run support in this run but it is hard not to overlook his 1.28 WHIP at home which is very average. Chad Bettis gets the ball for the Rockies and he is on a solid run of three straight quality starts including both coming out of the All Star Break. Going back, Colorado has won seven of his last eight starts while going a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (919) Colorado Rockies |
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07-25-16 | Cubs v. White Sox +184 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 184 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The Cubs and White Sox renew their annual rivalry with a four-game set starting today. The teams will play Monday and Tuesday on the South Side before shifting eight miles north to Wrigley Field for a pair of games Wednesday and Thursday. The Cubs won their series at Milwaukee thanks to a five-run seventh inning that turned a 4-1 deficit into a 6-4 lead and they held on for the one run victory. While they are now seven games over .500 on the road for the season, they are 3-7 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. The White Sox snapped a three-game skid with a pair of wins yesterday against Detroit and hopes to use that momentum heading into this series. While it has been a struggle of late, the White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. They turn to Miguel Gonzalez who has been pretty solid this season with the exception of a few bad outings. He has allowed three runs or less in 11 of 14 starts and has tossed four straight quality outings, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in July. Going against Jake Arrieta can be stressful but after being nearly unhittable for a whole calendar year, he has shown signs of vulnerability. While he is coming off a solid game against the Mets, he had four straight non-quality starts prior to that. After opening the season with five straight quality outings on the road, only one of his last five on the highway have been quality performances. 10* (972) Chicago White Sox |
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07-25-16 | Tigers +139 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-2 | Win | 139 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Boston avoided a series loss with its victory over Minnesota on Sunday and that series was a golden opportunity to make up ground in the American League East but it was unable to take advantage. Still, the Red Sox improved to 34-22 at home and own the best record in the bigs in the month of July but the situation and opponent become tougher starting today. The Tigers took the first two games against the White Sox but lost both games yesterday by a single run. Detroit is only six games behind Cleveland in the American League Central and is just four games out of the Wild Card chase so all games are big at this point. The Tigers are 20-8 in their last 28 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Justin Verlander will be making his third start since the All Star Break and his first two were gems as he allowed a total of two runs in a combined 15 innings. While those were at home, he has been pretty solid on the road with a 3.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and the Tigers are 6-2 in his last eight starts against teams with a winning record. While the Boston offense has carried the load, the Red Sox are 0-4 in their last four games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Drew Pomeranz will be making his second start with Boston since coming over from San Diego and he hopes for a better result after allowing five runs in three innings against the Giants. While it could be better, the switch to the American League may take time to adjust. 10* (959) Detroit Tigers |
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07-24-16 | Cubs v. Brewers +145 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
We won with the Brewers last night and while that will turn many on the Cubs to rebound today, we will be on Milwaukee once again thanks to another great price. Chicago has been nothing but average since mid-June as it is 11-18 over its last 29 games and its lead in the National League Central continues to get chipped away. The Cubs are 6-10 on the road over this stretch, while being favored all but twice, and they are 2-7 in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record. Milwaukee moved back over .500 at home with the victory yesterday which snapped a three-game slide at Miller Park and while winning streaks have been minimal of late, the matchup does not hurt them as some may think. Jon Lester takes the hill for the Cubs and after two very poor outings, he came back with a quality start against the Mets. He has been outstanding at home with a 2.18 ERA but on the road that ERA balloons to 3.67 which is not horrible but far from dominant. The Brewers are 7-1 in their last eight home games against left-handed starters. Milwaukee counters with Junior Guerra who has been awesome in his rookie season with a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 14 starts, 10 resulting in Brewers wins. The Brewers are 6-2 in his last eight starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. 10* (910) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-24-16 | Phillies +143 v. Pirates | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
After getting blanked by Zach Eflin on Friday who tossed a complete game shutout, the Pirates bounced back Saturday with a 7-4 win thanks to the bullpen which allowed just two runs over six innings and that could come back to haunt them today because of the usage. Philadelphia has faltered since a great start to the season but the Phillies are not completely useless as they continue to compete and have been a great bounce back team as they are 9-1 in their last 10 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. They turn to Vincent Velasquez who has been sensational in his first year with Philadelphia. Overall, he has a 3.15 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 16 starts, 10 of which have resulted in Phillies wins. Not counting his start where he got hurt and went just a third of an inning, he has allowed two runs or less in five straight starts. The Phillies are 6-0 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Pittsburgh counters with Jameson Taillon who is coming off his second straight quality start despite taking a lone drive to the head on Tuesday in the second inning. He still stayed in the game and pitched great but who knows how that affects him today. He has a 4.50 ERA at home and the Phillies are 5-2 in their last seven road games against right-handed starters. 10* (905) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-23-16 | Mets +147 v. Marlins | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The Mets won the opener of this series last night to pull within a half-game of the Marlins and the chances are good that they leapfrog them after tonight. New York has alternated wins and losses ever since the All Star Break which would indicate a loss upcoming here but we are not buying that trend which will eventually be broken. Miami has been a solid bounceback team following a loss but it is tough to trust the Marlins at this price in this particular pitching matchup. Jose Fernandez takes the hill for Miami and we all know what he has done at home in his career has been nothing short of remarkable as the winning percentage is off the charts. The one blemish that we have seen this season has been a lack of run support as he has gotten just 3.6 rpg and runs will be even tougher to come by here. While we know Fernandez is what he is, Jacob deGrom cannot be ignored at this price. His numbers nearly match those of Fernandez so while the underdog spot is solid, it is even better based on the high price. The Mets have won four of his last five starts with him being an underdog and going back, they are 13-4 in his last 17 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (959) New York Mets |
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07-23-16 | Cubs v. Brewers +152 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 152 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Cubs took the series opener last night to make it two straight wins overall to remain 6.5 games ahead of the surging Cardinals in the National League Central. Chicago has been average since a remarkable start to the season and it is overpriced in this particular spot. The Brewers meanwhile have lost two straight games and while they have dropped three straight at home going back to prior to the All Star Break, they are right at .500 at Miller Park. John Lackey goes for the Cubs and he has been struggling. After a run of 10 straight quality starts, he has posted a 6.75 ERA over his last five starts with only one resulting in a quality performance. While it is hard to say fatigue may be setting in, it is a legitimate argument for Lackey as he is up to 124.2 innings on the season. Milwaukee givers the ball to Zach Davies who is having a solid rookie season. He made six starts at the end of last season, posting a 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and through 16 starts this year, his numbers are nearly identical. He is coming off a gem against Cincinnati and has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. After starting 0-3, the Brewers are 6-1 in his last seven home starts. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-22-16 | Mets v. Marlins -134 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Miami has been one of the pleasant surprises in the National League this season as it is currently sitting in one of the two Wild Card spot while trailing Washington by just 4.5 games in the National League East. This is the first home game since the All Star Break and the Marlins were successful with a 5-2 roadtrip and now bring in a five-game home winning streak. The Mets dropped two of three against the Cubs after taking two of three against the Phillies to square up their roadtrip at 3-3 and remain .500 overall on the highway. However, the Mets are 1-6 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Miami hands the ball to Adam Conley and he has quietly put together a solid season with a 3.61 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 19 starts and those numbers get significantly better at home. The Marlins have won his last four home starts with Conley posting a 1.07 ERA in those four games. The Mets go with Logan Verrett who has had a few good starts in his limited action but the majority have been the other way. Overall, he has a 4.21 ERA but that jumps up to 5.20 only counting his seven starts. The Mets have dropped four of his five road starts where he possesses a 5.28 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. 10* (908) Miami Marlins |
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07-19-16 | Brewers v. Pirates -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The Pirates opened the second half with a series loss against the Nationals but they remain right in the thick of the National League Wild Card race thanks to a 10-4 run since the end of June. While the home field has not been great this season, Pittsburgh has dominated the current situation of late as the Pirates are 45-17 in their last 62 home games against teams with a losing record. Milwaukee remains on the road after a series loss at Cincinnati over the weekend to fall to 16-29 on the highway, the second worst record in the National League. The Brewers have really struggled in these spots, similar to how the Pirates have flourished, as they are 15-37 in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh welcomes back Jameson Taillon who is coming off the disabled list after a stint because of shoulder fatigue. Taillon threw an extended bullpen session Thursday and a side session Saturday and said he felt excellent which is a great sign. His pinpoint command has been evident (4.4-percent walk rate), which separates him from many of the other top pitching prospects in the game. The Brewers are 17-40 in their last 57 road games against right-handed starters. Milwaukee turns to Junior Guerra who has been exceptional in his rookie season with a 3.06 ERA in 13 starts and most shocking is that Milwaukee is 6-0 in his six road starts and that unblemished mark finally comes to an end tonight. 10* (954) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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07-17-16 | Royals v. Tigers -141 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
The Tigers dropped Game Two of this series on Saturday as Mike Pelfrey got lit up early but they come back today in hopes of winning this series with a much better pitching matchup. Detroit is now just a half-game ahead of Kansas City in the American League Central but more importantly, in the Wild Card race so these games are becoming bigger as the season goes along. The Tigers are 14-6 in their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record. The Royals have been underachieving all season and despite the win yesterday, the road has been the issue as it is 17-31 on the highway while the situation here is a bad one as the Royals are 2-14 in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Tigers turn to Michael Fulmer who has been one of the standout stories of the season as the rookie has been sensational with a record of 9-2 and an ERA of 2.11 and a WHIP of 1.10. He has allowed one run or less in nine straight starts and of his 13 overall starts, 10 have come on the road which makes the work even more impressive. Detroit is 8-0 in his last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Yordano Ventura has not been good this season and he has really struggled away from home with a 5.67 ERA and 1.57 WHIP and the Royals are 0-6 in his last six road starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (966) Detroit Tigers |
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07-16-16 | Blue Jays -124 v. A's | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Blue Jays lost a tough one last night as they blew a 7-2 to fall to Oakland 8-7 and now sit three games behind Baltimore in the American League East. They have been a solid bounce back team however as they have won 13 of their last 18 games following a defeat. Oakland has been just the opposite as it has been unable to get anything going as it has lost four straight games following a win and despite the victory last night, it is 8-20 in its last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record. Oakland sends Sonny Gray to the mound and he has had a very tough season as he has a 5.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 16 starts with just half of those being quality outings. His numbers are even worse at home and Oakland has won just one of his last eight starts. Additionally, the Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last nine games against right-handed starters. R.A. Dickey counters for Toronto and while his season has pretty solid, he is going through the best stretch of his season. He has posted a 3.02 ERA over his last eight starts and the Blue Jays have gone 14-6 in his last 20 starts after posting a quality outing in his last start. 10* (915) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-15-16 | Marlins v. Cardinals -136 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -136 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
It was a disappointing first half for the Cardinals as they are four games over .500 and it was the home/road split that was most surprising. They are 11 games over .500 on the road but just seven games under .500 at home and that has been the main story for the struggles. The break came at a great time as St. Louis now needs to get going at home to keep pace in the National League Wild Card race. Miami is tied with the Mets for the second Wild Card spot thanks to a home sweep prior to the break and the Marlins come into tonight a game over .500 on the road. However, the Marlins are 1-5 in their last six road games against teams with a winning record. Jaime Garcia gets the ball for the Cardinals and while he has been up and down, his home numbers are solid with a 3.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine starts. He has been hurt by poor run support overall but St. Louis has put up an average of 7.7 rpg over his last three starts and that should keep going. Wei-Yin Chen has been all over the place this season and despite a quality start in his last outing, he has a 6.00 ERA over his last six starts. 10* (960) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-15-16 | Brewers v. Reds -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
The Reds concluded a 10-game roadtrip prior to the All Star Break so this makes it their first home game in July and while the home field has not been great, only 17 of their 46 games at Great American have come against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati has won 10 of those and this is just the second series since early May against a team with a losing record. Milwaukee dropped two straight at home against St. Louis prior to the break and while it is still above .500 at home, it is just 15-27 on the road and more recent, the Brewers are 4-12 in their last 16 road games. The Reds turn to Anthony DeSclafani who has been sensational since entering the rotation in June. He has a 2.23 ERA in six starts including a 0.64 ERA in two home starts, both resulting in Cincinnati victories. The Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts during Game One of a series. Milwaukee counters with Matt Garza who turned in a pair of quality outings in his first two starts but has posted an 8.44 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last two starts and going back, the Brewers have dropped seven of his last nine road starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (956) Cincinnati Reds |
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07-15-16 | Orioles v. Rays -126 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
The Orioles entered the All Star Break with a two-game lead over Boston and Toronto in the American League East which has been anchored by a baseball-best 33-14 record at home. The road has been a different story however as Baltimore is just 18-22 on the highway and the Orioles are 3-8 in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Tampa Bay was not expected to do much this season but it has been worse than expected as it comes in 20 games under .500 and its 34-54 is just two games better than Minnesota for worst in the American League. Preseason Cy Young candidate Chris Archer has been a big reason for that as he has had a tough season with just four wins and a 4.66 ERA in 19 starts. He has been awful on the road with a 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP but has been solid at home with a 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has gotten little run support at Tropicana Field but that changes tonight as Yovani Gallardo takes the hill and he has struggled in limited action. In nine starts, he has just one quality outing and while his 5.82 ERA overall is bad enough, it balloons to 7.83 on the road. 10* (968) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-10-16 | Nationals v. Mets -132 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
The Mets are in jeopardy of losing their third straight game and falling six games behind Washington in the National League Central but today presents a great opportunity for a bounceback. They have managed only two runs over the last two games but those came against Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg so no real harm there. The matchup is much better today and despite the two-game winning streak, Washington is just 4-4 over its last eight games and going back, the Nationals are 3-8 in their last 11 road games. After going with their top two aces, they send Gio Gonzalez to the hill and he has been struggling. He is coming off a quality start in his last game but overall he has a 4.79 ERA which includes a 5.05 ERA in eight road starts, six of which have been lost by the Nationals. It has been a horrible run overall as the Nationals are 1-8 in his last nine starts. The Mets turn to Steven Matz who has been solid although unspectacular. He has a 3.54 ERA overall and his 1.22 WHIP is really good which goes down further at home and even further in day games. The Mets are 8-1 in his last nine starts following a quality start in his last outing while the Nationals are 0-4 in their last four road games against left-handed starters. 10* (902) New York Mets |
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07-10-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -161 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
The win by Detroit yesterday snapped the Blue Jays seven-game winning streak but we can expect Toronto to rebound here and grab a victory before the break. The offense was held to just two runs Saturday after averaging 7.7 rpg during the winning streak and the Blue Jays are 40-16 in their last 56 home games against teams with a losing road record. Detroit was not expected to do much this season but it has held up pretty well as it is now four games over .500 but still trails the Indians by 6.5-games in the American League Central. They have not been great on the road and are 2-7 in their last nine road games against teams with a winning record. The Tigers turn to Anibal Sanchez once again only because they are out of options and he has been struggling. He was sent to the bullpen after posting a 6.667 ERA through 11 starts and the relief role actually was good for him but he has had to make two spot starts since then and neither were good so we can expect similar struggles today. R.A. Dickey counters for Toronto and while his season has been average, he is going through the best stretch of his season. He has posted a 3.49 ERA over his last eight starts and the Blue Jays have gone 13-6 in his last 19 starts after posting a quality outing in his last start. 9* (916) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-09-16 | Mariners v. Royals -115 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
It has been a tough first half for the reigning World Series Champions as Kansas City fell to 44-42 following a loss on Friday and it is now on a poor 1-5 run. The problems have come on the road however where the Royals are 16-30 but even with the loss last night, they are 28-12 at home and have lost consecutive games at home only once, going 10-1 in the previous 11 home games following a home loss. Seattle is a game under .500 on the road and had lost four straight games previous to last night and 10 straight road games as well. Edinson Volquez goes for the Royals and after getting shelled by Houston for 11 runs in just one inning, he has put together a pair of decent outings and looks to build on that. His home numbers are skewed by that one bad start but six of his 10 home outings have been quality performances and going back, the Royals are 21-7 in his last 28 home starts. Wade Miley counters for Seattle and he is coming off a quality game last time out but those have been few and far between this season. He has only five all season and has followed up his last three with non-quality efforts in his next start. 10* (976) Kansas City Royals |
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07-09-16 | Cardinals -150 v. Brewers | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
St. Louis won its final game of its homestand against the Pirates but failed to build any momentum off of that as it lost the series opener in Milwaukee last night. Still, the Cardinals are 25-16 on the road which is the second best road record in baseball and they are now are 8-2 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. Milwaukee improved to 23-20 at home but even with the victory last night, the Brewers are 19-39 in their last 58 games against teams with a winning record. Carlos Martinez gets the ball for St. Louis and he has been a tough luck pitcher of late. He has a 1.33 ERA over his last four starts but all have resulted in Cardinals losses as the offense has given him little while the bullpen has allowed 11 runs. He has posted seven straight quality starts and has owned Milwaukee the last two years with a 0.39 ERA in three starts at Miller Park. The Brewers turn to Chase Anderson who has been horrific of late with a 12.66 ERA in his last three starts and Milwaukee has dropped his last four starts. Additionally, the Brewers are 0-5 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (951) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-30-16 | Giants -137 v. A's | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The Giants took five of six meetings last season against Oakland but is in jeopardy of getting swept this season after losing two games at home to start the week and then dropping the first game in Oakland last night 7-1. Despite the defeat, the Giants are still 10 games over .500 on the road and are tied with St. Louis for the second best road record in baseball. They have won 21 of their last 29 games on the highway and while Oakland took the first game here last night, it is still five games under .500 at home and its -46 run differential is third worst in the American League. Additionally, they are 3-7 in their last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Madison Bumgarner tossed another quality outing in his last start which was his 13th straight quality performance but it was his second straight tough luck loss as his offense managed to score just two runs, the fourth straight game it has scored three runs or less with him on the hill. The good news is that the Giants are 7-0 in his last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game. Oakland counters with Dillon Overton who is making just his second career start. He missed a quality outing by just one-third of an inning in his first start but it was not a great one as he allowed three home runs in 5.2 innings and now faces a Giants team that is 11-3 in its last 14 games against left-handed starters. 10* (921) San Francisco Giants |
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06-28-16 | A's v. Giants -139 | Top | 13-11 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
We lost with the Giants last night as they have now dropped two of their last three games following a four-game winning streak as well as a 12-1 run over their previous 13 games. Losing streaks have been rare as they have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss including wins in four straight and we have a good price behind them tonight. Oakland has now won four of its last five games, all coming on the road where they are still four games under .500 for the season. Despite the win on Monday, they are just 8-23 in their last 31 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. San Francisco sends Albert Suarez to the hill and he has been very solid in his limited action with a 3.68 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over four starts and six relief appearances. He has been exceptional at home with a 2.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 17 innings. Kendall Graveman gets the ball for Oakland and while he has been having a solid season, the schedule has dictated a lot of that. In his 14 starts, only two have come against teams that are currently over .500 and he was shelled both times, allowing 11 runs in just seven combined innings. This is not good news for him or his team as the Giants are 23-5 in their last 28 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. We should see another solid rebound from the Giants tonight before hitting the road for two games in Oakland. 10* (930) San Francisco Giants |
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06-26-16 | Rays v. Orioles -138 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
The Orioles remain red hot as they won again yesterday to make it four straight victories to increase their lead in the American League East to three games over Boston. Baltimore improved to 30-13 at home which is the best home record in baseball and going back, the Orioles are 48-22 in their last 70 home games against teams with a losing road record. Tampa Bay is now 11 games under .500 no thanks to a current 10-game slide. The Rays are 3-12 in their last 15 games after losing the first three games of a series so avoiding the big sweep has not happened much, The Orioles send Tyler Wilson to the hill and he has been a pretty solid addition to the rotation. In 11 starts, he has allowed three runs or fewer eight times and while the Orioles have only lost 13 home games, five have come with Wilson on the hill which gives us the contrarian value. Tampa Bay turns to Drew Smyly who has been beat around after a promising start to the season. He has posted a 6.60 ERA over his last eight starts after putting up a 2.72 ERA in his first four outings. Going back, the Rays are 0-4 in his last four road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (920) Baltimore Orioles |
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06-26-16 | Padres v. Reds -131 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
The Padres have won three straight games and six of their last seven but they are still 10 games under .500 on the season. San Diego trails the Giants by 15 games in the National League West and despite a 4-1 record on this current roadtrip, it is 15-21 on the highway overall and going back, the Padres are 7-20 in their last 27 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Cincinnati has dropped four straight games and while the overall record is worse, this looks like an excellent spot to avoid the series sweep before hosting the Cubs for a three-game series. Anthony DeSclafani will be making just his fourth start of the season since coming off the disabled list and he has been extremely solid. He allowed just two runs in seven innings at Texas last time out. Overall, he has a 2.30 ERA and going back to last season, the Reds are 4-1 in his last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Padres counter with Luis Perdomo who has been a major disappointment. After starting the season in the bullpen, he has made four starts with just one of those being quality. Overall, he has a 9.00 ERA including an 8.83 ERA in those four starts. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds |
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