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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-13-18 | Astros +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 106 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Houston was expected to be challenged by Cleveland in the ALDS but that was hardly the case as the Astros swept the Indians in three games by a combined score of 21-6. While they are slight underdogs in Game One, they are favored to win this series and rightfully so despite not having home field advantage as they finished five games behind the Red Sox. Boston has the home field advantage on most days but that is not the case tonight as its 57-24 record at Fenway Park is matched by the 57-24 record on the road by the Astros. The Astros are 6-1 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and they took two of three here back in September. This is the same pitching matchup we saw in Game One of the 2017 ALDS and while the venue is different, we expect the Astros to again take the opener. Justin Verlander gets the ball for Houston and the Astros could not be in better shape. He stymied the Indians for five innings in Game One before the bullpen was called upon as he retired 15 of the first 16 batters he faced and finished with seven strikeouts. His postseason track record is outstanding and he has been outstanding since 2013, going 6-2 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts). Chris Sale counters for Boston and something just does not seem right. Health and stamina were concerns heading into the playoffs, as left shoulder inflammation limited him to 17 innings from July 28 through the end of the regular season. He was decent in his start against the Yankees in the ALDS but far from his dominant self and the Astros have his number. He has allowed 11 runs in 11 innings in two starts since last season including an awful effort in the ALDS opening game. Here, we play against American League teams hitting between .265 and .279 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 37-13 (74 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (903) Houston Astros |
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +144 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 144 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee finished the regular season four games better than the Dodgers, stormed through the NLDS with three straight wins on top of eliminating the Cubs in Game 163 and their current winning streak stands at 11 straight games yet they are getting no respect here. The betting public is all over the Dodgers in Game One with two-thirds of the tickets on their side so Milwaukee is catching a fantastic number at home. The Brewers quietly went 51-30 at home, the best home record in the National League, and they are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning road record. The story all season for the Brewers has been their bullpen and rightfully so. Milwaukee's 3.47 ERA in relief was second in the National League only to the Cubs. The bullpen went 2-0 with a save and a 1.17 ERA in the three-game Division Series sweep over Colorado. But Gio Gonzalez is getting overshadowed here in what is a great spot. It has been quite a rebound since being acquired in a deal with the Nationals, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts with Milwaukee. Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is the reason the Dodgers are big road favorites and he has been solid since his return from the disabled list. But the postseason demons still linger. While Kershaw has thrown 12 consecutive scoreless innings in the postseason dating back to last year's World Series, he is 2-4 with a 4.65 ERA in five career starts in the NLCS. Here, we play on home underdogs after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs, in October games. This situation is 41-23 (64.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (902) Milwaukee Brewers |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Divisional Series rounds have been nothing short of duds as we have seen a pair of sweeps and a near sweep with the Dodgers and it is up to the Yankees to finally have one go the distance. They were trounced last night as the Red Sox erupted for 16 runs on 18 hits as they got to every New York pitcher that entered the game as all six arms allowed at least one earned run and walked at least two. This included the use of catcher Austin Romine in the ninth inning which was a smart move to preserve pitchers for tonight. The Boston highlight was Brock Holt hitting for the first cycle in postseason history and the Yankees probably took offense to it by leaving him in as he hit a two-run home run in the ninth inning to make history. C.C. Sabathia will try to repress the Boston offense and he has a good chance to do just that as the Red Sox are hitting just .250 against left-handed pitching which is middle of the pack and they have hit just 37 home runs which is ninth lowest in baseball. Sabathia has been solid at home with a 3.12 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Rick Porcello counters for Boston and has been decent all season but this is not a good time or place. He is 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four postseason starts and while he was tremendous against the Yankees this season, going 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts, the ERA at home is 0.50 in three starts and 8.44 ERA in the one start in New York. Here, we play against American League teams hitting between .265 to .279 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) New York Yankees |
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10-08-18 | Astros v. Indians -118 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. It is do or die for Cleveland which lost the first two games of this ALDS as the offense was handcuffed by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. A return home should help that where Cleveland finished 49-32 during the regular season and hit .267 which was second best in the American League behind Boston. Houston possessed the best road record in baseball at 57-24 so the challenge for Cleveland to stay alive will not be easy but the price reflects that. Houston has just three wins in their last 11 playoff road games. Dallas Keuchel used to be the ace of this staff but he has taken a step back. After winning the Cy Young in 2015, he followed that up with a poor 2016 and after a bounce back last season, he has a 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHP which are good by most standards but not his. His home/road and day/night splits are very similar but he has struggled on the road with a 5.40 ERA in his last five road starts and he comes in with a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over his last three starts overall. He faced Cleveland twice this season and was average with a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Mike Clevinger has been on a great run as he has a 2.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP since the All Star Break, covering 13 starts. He made 13 daytime starts as well and posted a 2.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While the Astros tagged him for eight runs in 11.2 innings, both of those were early in the season in back-to-back starts in May. The Indians are 6-0 in his last six home starts. Here, we play against underdogs after allowing two runs or less two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less three straight games. This situation is 168-81 (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (916) Cleveland Indians |
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10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -152 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We played on Colorado on Friday and unfortunately, a solid performance from Tyler Anderson was ruined by the offense that has suddenly gone ice cold. The Rockies have scored just six runs over their last four games but all of those games have come on the road and we know what this offense is capable of at home where it leads all of baseball in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. We expected a line move here after opening at -140 and it did go up but not to a point where it is unplayable as Colorado looks to avoid elimination. Milwaukee remains the hottest team in the postseason a it has reeled off 10 consecutive wins as both offense and pitching have been spot on. The Brewers are headed to a tough spot however based on venue and matchup as they will be facing one of the hottest starting pitchers in all of baseball. German Marquez was not at his finest in Los Angeles last time out but it was just two pitches that cost him, snapping a 12-game quality start streak. While going back to Coors Field for some pitchers is not a good thing, it is for Marquez as he has posted a 1.90 ERA there since July over seven starts. Wade Miley has had a breakout season but he is leaking some oil down the stretch as he has posted a 4.24 ERA over his last four starts and gets the tough task of facing Colorado at the wrong place at the wrong time. Here, we play against underdogs after allowing two runs or less in three straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less three straight games. This situation is 67-25 (72.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) Colorado Rockies |
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10-06-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES/BOSTON RED SOX OVER for our MLB Saturday Totals Dominator. The Yankees dug themselves into a 5-0 hole last night and could not get out of it although they gave it their best and look to build on that tonight. They outhit Boston 10-8 but managed only four runs and the offense has a chance to break out in a big way on Saturday. Boston was unable to get to the Yankees bullpen last night but this offense remains red hot as the Red Sox have averaged 7.6 rpg over their last seven games which have all come at Fenway Park. They finished as the best hitting team at home in the American League and have a chance to tee off again tonight. Masahiro Tanaka had a solid run from mid-August to mid-September but he has struggled over his last two starts allowing eight runs over eight innings. One of those games came against Boston which has been his least favorite team to pitch against this season as he has posted a 7.58 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in four starts. The Yankees have scored 31 runs in their last four games when facing a left-handed starter and one of those came against David Price where he was tagged for six runs in 5.1 innings. This is another bad pitching matchup as Price has a 10.34 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in four starts against the Yankees which led baseball with 82 home runs against lefty pitching, nine of which were against Price. 10* Over (953) New York Yankees/(954) Boston Red Sox |
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10-05-18 | Rockies +145 v. Brewers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Game of the Week. Milwaukee took Game One of this NLDS yesterday on a walk-off single after blowing a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning and the Brewers remain the hottest of all teams still playing with nine straight wins. The offense led the way toward the end of the regular season but the pitching has carried Milwaukee of late as it has allowed just three runs over the last three games and the bullpen start on Thursday proved to be the right move. The Rockies finished with only four hits yesterday and they have scored only six runs over the last three games since ending the regular season tied with the Dodgers in the National League West. Fatigue and travel can be blamed for the lack of production but an offense of this caliber cannot be kept down for long and Friday presents a great opportunity to bust out. Jhoulys Chacin has had a great season and he has been efficient of late, allowing three runs or less in 11 straight games. The issue here is that since September, he has not gotten out of the sixth inning of any of his six starts which poses a problem for the bullpen tat was utilized a great deal yesterday. Colorado has won eight of its last 11 games against right-handed starters and it is hitting a solid .279 against right-handed pitching over its last 10 games. The backend of the rotation is in play again with Tyler Anderson getting the ball today but he has been dealing of late with a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three starts. While he has a 5.02 ERA on the road for the season, he has a 1.20 WHIP to go along with that which shows he has been pitching better than the ERA indicates and as long as he keeps the ball in the yard, he will be fine. Look for the Rockies to tie this series up before heading home for Game Three on Sunday. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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10-04-18 | Braves +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Braves ascension to the top of the National League East took less time than expected as this team went from last place in the National League East in 2016 with 68 wins to third place last season with 72 wins to winning the division this year with 90 victories. Reading some articles online about this series, I came across one and the first sentence from some dolt was "The Dodgers are really good, and the Braves are really not." That is exactly the mindset of the betting public as Atlanta finished one game worse than Los Angeles, had three more road wins than the Dodgers had home wins during the regular season and yet come in as massive underdogs for the series and for Game One. Mike Foltynewicz is getting no respect, which has been the case most of the season, and he has been an underdog higher than this price only four times this season and those came against Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg and Scherzer again. do disrespect to Hyun-Jin Ryu, but he should not be in that group. Foltynewicz finished with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, good for fifth and sixth best in the National League respectively. His ERA on the road is over a half-run less than it is at home and the Braves have won four of his last five road starts. The Dodgers decided to move Clayton Kershaw out of Game One and into Game Two so he would be guaranteed the Game Five start should the series go that far and it was a smart move. Ryu has had a great season but this is an extremely tough matchup as the Braves are hitting .269 against left-handed pitching this season, third best in baseball. The Dodgers are 5-12 in his last 17 starts when playing against a team with a winning record. 10* (903) Atlanta Braves |
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10-03-18 | A's v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 102 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S/NEW YORK YANKEES OVER for our MLB Total of the Year. After a pitching duel last night in Chicago, we should be in for some offense tonight from the Bronx. We all know about the Yankees offense and what it is capable of and it comes in blazing hot, averaging 8.2 rpg over its last six games and that with putting up two runs in the season finale with the starters seeing limited action. The Oakland bats have been firing since the end of August as it has averaged 6.4 rpg over its last 27 games. Oakland employed the bullpen approach once against the Yankees with Liam Hendricks starting and while the game stayed under the total, it was due to the Oakland bats being ice cold against J.A. Happ. Hendricks gets the call tonight and he will be just the fourth pitcher to start a postseason game after a regular season of no wins, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. He has been solid when starting with the bullpenning approach but now comes the biggest test of them all. Luis Severino counters for New York and while he has been great at home this season, most of that success came in the first half. He has a 5.47 ERA in his last five starts in Yankee Stadium. He dominated Oakland in his first start, but that was in May, and he was rocked for six runs in 2.2 innings in Oakland a month ago. There is no team in the postseason that has hit better on the road than the A's. Oakland leads all playoff teams in road hits, road homers, road slugging and scoring and it ranks second in road on-base percentage. They even set a Major League record by homering in 25 straight games on the road. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 after a loss by two runs or less going up against an opponent after a combined score of 12 runs or more in four straight games. This situation is 32-9 (78 percent) since 1997. 10* Over (939) Oakland A's/(940) New York Yankees |
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10-02-18 | Rockies +125 v. Cubs | Top | 2-1 | Win | 125 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Tuesday Wild Card Annihilator. Yesterday was obviously important for the Rockies and they did not come through as a dropped third strike played a big part, so instead of hosting the Braves on Thursday, they have to travel east to play another game today in a one-and-done situation. While Colorado seems to be at a huge disadvantage since the Cubs were able to stay right where they were yesterday, the Rockies are the play. The public is all over Chicago in what might be considered a short number but yesterday showed what this team has had issues with over the second half of the season and that is the offense. The Cubs had just three hits yesterday and going back to September 10th, they have averaged just 3.7 rpg over the last 21 games. The Rockies got handcuffed last night by rookie Walker Buehler but this offense can explode at any moment and why not tonight. Jon Lester has been a postseason force throughout his career so he will not be feeling any pressure tonight. But he faces a murders row of left-handed crushers with Nolan Arenado posting a .368/.451/.747 line against lefties and Trevor Story posting a .326/.389/.680 line against lefties while Ian Desmond goes from a .216 to a .280 hitter facing lefties. And then there are DJ LeMahieu at .330/.360/.540 and Charlie Blackmon at .293/.352/.464 that bring together a team that has hit 247 RBIs, the most in baseball. Not many know who Kyle Freeland is but he has quietly put together a fantastic season. The Denver native has probably dreamed of this moment since he was a kid and there will be no pressure with this scenario having been replayed many times. He has a 2.85 ERA on the season which is fifth best in the National League and his 2.49 ERA since the All Star Break is fifth best in baseball. Even better, in his last 11 starts, Freeland is 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA and the Rockies are 12-2 in his last 14 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (937) Colorado Rockies |
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10-01-18 | Rockies +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Both the Rockies and Dodgers won huge yesterday for force game 163 and this is a huge game for both sides. The winning team will be the National League West champion and the second seed in the National League playoffs, hosting the Atlanta Braves on Thursday night. The losing team will be the second National League Wild Card team and will have a quick turnaround as they will travel to play the winner of the Cubs-Brewers Game. Colorado is 44-37 on the road which is the same as the Dodgers record at home yet Los Angeles comes in as a favorite that shows it is significantly better at home, which it is not, or has a huge starting pitching matchup, which it does not. German Marquez gets the ball for Colorado and he has been outstanding after a slow start. He has posted a 2.16 ERA over his last 12 starts and he has pitched well against the Dodgers including going 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings this season in Los Angeles. Hitters currently on the Dodgers roster have hit a combined .188/.259/.386 in a total of 113 plate appearances against Marquez. Walker Buehler is having a solid rookie season as he has tossed three straight quality outings. He has been very good at home but he has struggled during the day with a 4.91 ERA in five games. The Rockies are 23-8 in their last 31 games against right-handed starters. 10* (953) Colorado Rockies |
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09-30-18 | Nationals v. Rockies -166 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Washington got to Colorado last night for five runs in the first two innings to make Sunday a big day for the Rockies and Dodgers. Colorado caught a huge break with Los Angeles winning last night as strange as that may sound but because the Dodgers clinched a playoff spot, Washington elected to replace Max Scherzer with Erick Fedde. The Rockies need to win today to avoid a trip to either Milwaukee or Los Angeles tomorrow should either or both of those teams win today. The Rockies are 6-1 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Washington is in spoiler role still and with Scherzer getting scratched, we could see some offense taking the day off as well. The Nationals are 7-15 in their last 22 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The Rockies turn to Tyler Anderson who was scratched in his last start and the rest should do him good in a big spot today. He was in the midst of a horrible run but he posted a pair of quality outings in the last roadtrip, including one against the Dodgers, so he can bring some confidence back home. It is not a fluke either as he made an adjustment with his delivery. Fedde has been average as he has gone six straight starts without a quality outing including his last four since re-entering the rotation. He was shelled by the Rockies in his lone start against them last season and this is his first trip to Coors Field. Here, we play against teams with a slugging percentage of .440 or better over their last 20 games and starting a pitcher who walked four or more hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 36-18 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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09-29-18 | Braves +150 v. Phillies | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. We are going back to the well tonight with the Braves after they won last night to remain tied with the Rockies for second place in the National League. They do have a tough matchup tonight but with everything on the line, grabbing them at this price is a must. They continue their solid road play where they are now 47-32 on the season including going 10-1 in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Phillies continue to reel since being eliminated from playoff contention as they have lost nine straight games. Both sides of the ball have been a disaster as Philadelphia has scored three runs or less in seven straight games while allowing 10 runs or lore in four of their last five games. During this losing streak, they are getting outscored by an average of 6.6 rpg and they have dropped 12 straight games against teams with a winning record. Aaron Nola is the reason this price is as big as it is but he has faded slightly down the stretch. Coming into September, his worst month was June where he posted a 3.23 ERA in five starts but in five starts this month, he has a 4.60 ERA and this includes a 5.51 ERA in three home starts. The Braves are 19-7 this season against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.05 or better. Anibal Sanchez continues his solid turnaround season as he has a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 23 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in his last eight road outings. The Braves fall into a great situation where we play against National League teams that are hitting .200 or worse over their last five games, after a game where the bullpen allowed six or more earned runs. This situation is 50-24 (67.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) Atlanta Braves |
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09-28-18 | Dodgers v. Giants +176 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Giants are significant underdogs tonight despite having a massive starting pitching advantage as Los Angeles is favored big due to its needing to win based on the National League playoff race. The Dodgers dropped the final two games against Arizona and things are dicey at this point as they enter the series with a chance to win the National League West, capture a National League Wild Card spot or miss the playoff entirely, all to be determined within three games against a team that has beaten them nine of 16 this season. The Giants season has been over for a while but they have one goal left and that is to play spoiler against their hated rivals. They have lost six of their last seven games, including a three-game sweep last week at the hands of the Cardinals, who gained ground on the Dodgers in the process. The major problem has been on the road where San Francisco has the second worst record in the National League but it has been dependable at home with a 42-36 record and it is 19-8 after having lost six or seven of its last eight games this season. Madison Bumgarner specifically asked to pitch in this series as he had his final start of the year pushed back from Wednesday to Friday so you know he is going to be dealing. The fact it is at home is where the pitching edge comes into play as after a rough outing here against the Cardinals on July 8, Bumgarner has a 0.79 ERA over his last five home starts including three straight of allowing no runs. Hyun-Jin Ryu has not allowed a run over his last two starts but both of those were at home where he has a 1.15 ERA. In contrast, he has a 4.15 ERA on the road. 10* (914) San Francisco Giants |
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09-27-18 | Braves -112 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with the Mets last night but that was with Jacob deGrom and the starting pitching difference for tonight is over 4.5 runs as far as ERA is concerned. So while last night was all about deGrom, the real Mets come back into play tonight and the results are not good. They are still nine games under .500 at home and despite the win last night, the Mets are 3-16 in 19 home games this season against teams outscoring their opponent by 0.5 or more rpg. Additionally, New York is 1-6 in its last seven games when its opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. If the season ended today, the Cubs would host the Wild Card winner and the Braves would host the Rockies in the two NLDS matchups but Atlanta has only a half-game on Colorado so the final four games of the season will determine home field so these are huge. Atlanta is 30-10 in its last 40 games against National League teams with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse while going 10-4 in its last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. The pitcher referred to earlier is Jason Vargas who has been throwing batting practice all season long. To his credit, he has pitched better as his 8.60 ERA before the All Star break has been nearly cut in half as he has a 4.37 ERA over his last nine starts but that is still nothing to get excited about. Atlanta is hitting .260 on the road against left-handed pitching which is the highest average in the National League. Julio Teheran has been pretty steady this season as proven by his 1.19 WHIP that drops to 1.15 on the road. In four starts against New York this season, he has a 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP and the Mets are 4-15 at home this season against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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09-26-18 | A's +107 v. Mariners | Top | 9-3 | Win | 107 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Oakland lost a tough one last night as it allowed a pinch-hit, two-run home run in the 11th inning which eliminated the A's from winning the American League West. They have clinched a Wild Card spot and they are still in the mix for getting to play it at home as they trail the Yankees by 2.5 games so they likely need to win out and hope New York falters over the weekend against the Red Sox. Despite the loss last night, Oakland is 33-11 in its last 44 games against American League teams with an on base percentage .320 or worse. Seattle has struggled down the stretch by going just 8-23 in its last 31 games following a win. While he does not have enough starts to qualify, Edwin Jackson would be a candidate for comeback player of the year. For a team starved with quality starting pitching, Jackson has stepped up big time as he has a 3.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 16 starts. For some reason, one team he has struggled against is Texas as he has a 10.03 ERA in three starts against the Rangers and take those out, and his ERA is 2.13 in his other 13 starts. Oakland is 13-1 in his 14 starts against American League teams with an on base percentage of .330 or worse while going 6-0 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in the previous game. Felix Hernandez will be making his final start of the season as he has not pitched since September 8 due to a strained hamstring. Hernandez has struggled much of the year, going 8-13 with a 5.46 ERA, which is more than a full run higher than last season's career-high 4.36 ERA. It is a short line tonight based on who he is and not what he has done and on the season, Seattle is 0-8 in his eight starts against teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game. 10* (927) Oakland A's |
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09-25-18 | Pirates v. Cubs -137 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Chicago lost the series opener last night as the offense could manage just one run and it has scored three runs or less in nine consecutive home games dating back to August 28. The Cubs have averaged only 1.9 rpg over this nine-game home stretch and while the opposing starter tonight may seem intimidating, that is far from the case. The Cubs are now just a game and a half ahead of Milwaukee in the National League Central and 4.5 games up on St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot with a closing three-game series looming against the Cardinals. The Cubs are 23-8 in their last 31 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Pirates continue to play hard as they close out the season knowing no playoffs in sight. They are 7-2 over their last nine games, but they are still five games under .500 on the road including wins in three straight where they have allowed a total of four runs. The name Chris Archer is keeping this number down way lower than it should be as he has been a bust since coming to Pittsburgh. He has a 4.86 ERA in nine starts and while he is coming off a quality start last time out, it was against the Royals so that is not saying much. He has been decent in pitcher-friendly PNC Park but he has been horrible on the road with a 6.12 ERA and the Pirates have dropped his last four road starts. Mike Montgomery comes back home for the first time since August 2nd as he has made five straight road starts He has allowed three runs or less in all six home starts for a 2.70 ERA and the Pirates are 7-21 in their last 28 road games against left-handed starters. 10* (956) Chicago Cubs |
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09-24-18 | Phillies v. Rockies -145 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB National League Game of the Month. A three-game sweep over Arizona enabled the Rockies to finish 4-5 on their most recent roadtrip which got off to a horrible start. The Rockies remain 1.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West while sitting 1.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second National League Wild Card spot. Basically, they need to keep winning and the schedule is in their favor as the final two series are against teams that will not be making the playoffs. Headed back to Coors Field, Colorado is 30-13 in its last 43 home game which is the best winning percentage over that stretch. Additionally, the Rockies are 5-0 in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. The Phillies playoff chances ended over the weekend as they were swept against the Braves in Atlanta. It has been a miserable end to the season as the Phillies were 63-48 on August 5th, which was the second best record in the National League, but since then they are 15-29, which is the worst record in the National League over that stretch. Philadelphia is now 15 games under .500 on the road as it has the fourth worst road record in the league and more recent, the Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Jon Gray is pitching in place of Tyler Anderson and he is coming off a pair of poor outings but those were against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. He has been pitching much better after the break as he came in with a 3.41 ERA in his previous nine starts. Zach Eflin has tossed two straight solid outings as well but with no playoff possibility, he will not be stretched out. Aaron Nola was limited to 90 pitches yesterday and the Phillies are not going to take a risk with the young arms. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies |
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09-23-18 | Royals +112 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 112 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Even though the Royals possess the second worst record in baseball, arguably the wrong team is favored here. Kansas City has dropped two of three to open this series and are on a 1-6 run, but it has a distinct edge on the hill this afternoon and can take advantage of a slumping Detroit offense. The Tigers are not playing much better as they are 4-9 over their last 13 games and have lost four straight games following a win. Additionally, the Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 home games. Brad Keller gets the ball for the Royals and he is coming off an average start against the Pirates but that was the first time in seven starts he allowed more than two earned runs. Overall, he has a 3.17 ERA in 19 starts and the Royals are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Detroit counters with Daniel Norris and he has struggled this season with a 5.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in six starts. He was able to put together his longest outing of the season last time out but it reached just 5.1 innings and to add to the disadvantage, Detroit is averaging only 3.0 rpg in his starts. Here, we play against American League favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher that are hitting .260 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. This situation is 39-18 (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (971) Kansas City Royals |
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09-22-18 | Brewers v. Pirates +107 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. As the season winds down, lines are adjusted based on teams that are still vying for playoff spots and we are seeing that here with the Brewers. We won with Milwaukee last night as road favorite but the pitching matchup was in it favor even though the game eventually came down to the bullpen because of a lengthy rain delay. Tonight, the Brewers have no such advantage yet they come in as a favorite as they trail the Cubs by a game and a half in the National League Central and while this is not a must win game, it is being treated like that. The Pirates had their five-game winning streak snapped last night as the bullpen allowed six runs in the sixth inning and seven runs total on four home runs. They hope to get a longer outing from the starter tonight and Trevor Williams will be up to the task. After a rough first half of the season, he has been outstanding of late, posting a 1.10 ERA in his last 11 starts since early July. He has one below average outing in St. Louis and he has allowed no earned runs in seven of the other 10 starts. Zach Davies counter for the Brewers and he is making just his fourth start since May. He has been okay as he has not allowed more than two runs in the three starts but he has lasted only five innings each time. That is not ideal after the bullpen had to go five innings last night. The Pirates are 5-1 in their last six home games against right-handed starters. 10* (904) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-21-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -113 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Take Colorado out of Coors Field and bad things happen to the offense. The Rockies are hitting a MLB-best .284 at home but on the road, they are hitting just .226 which is good for second worst in baseball. It is certainly showing on this roadtrip as they have scored three runs or less in all six games, averaging just 1.5 rpg. While the National League West and the Wild Card playoffs are wide open, no series this weekend is bigger than it is for the Diamondbacks. They can play themselves right back into the playoff chance or by Sunday night, they could be eliminated. Getting off to a strong start is huge and they hand the ball to their ace to do so. Zack Greinke has been great at home with a 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and in two home starts against Colorado this season, he has allowed just two runs in 13.2 innings. German Marquez has been outstanding since the All Star Break with a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 11 starts, all of which have been quality outings but all that does is keep this number down. Here, we play on National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20. This situation is 65-32 (67 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-20-18 | Phillies +137 v. Braves | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. This is the final home series of the season for the Braves and the biggest series of the season for both teams. Philadelphia and Atlanta meet seven times over the final week and a half of the season including this four-game set that could go a long way in helping decide the National League East. The Braves have a 5.5-game lead over the Phillies so we could see a huge swing over the weekend have not much movement at all but this game is huge for Philadelphia in trying to close the gap. The Phillies took the final two games against the Mets to close out a disappointing homestand at 4-5 and at least gain a little momentum heading into this series. Atlanta has faltered this season in this price range at home as it is 13-22 -17.5 units as a home favorite between -125 and -175 while going 26-16 +11 units in all other games. Additionally, the Braves are 3-12 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record. Vince Velazquez looks to keep the solid pitching going and while he has electric stuff, he has had a rough stretch since early August which is adding to the underdog price he is getting. The Braves counter with Kevin Gausman who has been a great addition to the rotation since coming over from Baltimore. Atlanta has yet to lose any of his four home starts, which is also affecting the line, but it is hard to look past his only start this season against the Phillies in mid-July when he was still with the Orioles as he allowed five runs on 12 hits in just five innings. 10* (905) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Cubs offense erupted for nine runs last night ss they had the luxury of facing Matt Andriese who was making his first start since July 4 when he was with Tampa Bay. It was a rare outburst as the Chicago offense has been struggling, averaging just 2.8 rpg going into last night and it will be challenged tonight facing a left-handed starter. Arizona has now lost four straight games and 14 of its last 18 games as it has played itself into a situation where it cannot lose anymore. The Diamondbacks trail the Dodgers by six games in the American League West and are also six back in the Wild Card race but the good news is that the next six games are against Colorado and Los Angeles at home so ground can be made up quickly. Robbie Ray has the task of keeping the Cubs at bay and while he has been inconsistent this season, he has been pitching his best of late, posting a 2.74 ERA over his last eight starts including a 1.99 ERA in four home outings. Cole Hamels has been an excellent addition to the rotation but he has had the luxury of facing just one team that is vying for a playoff spot. Here, we play on home teams with a moneyline of -100 to -150 and with a winning percentage between .501 and .540 after having lost eight or more of their last 10 games, playing a winning team. This situation is 51-18 (73.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-18-18 | Cardinals v. Braves -135 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Game of the Month. As soon as Mike Foltynewicz walked the bases loaded in the first inning last night, we knew we were in trouble and he put up his shortest and arguably the worst outing of the season. Despite the defeat and the third straight loss at home, the Braves inched closer to clinching the National League East as their magic number was reduced to seven when the Phillies lost to the Mets. Atlanta cannot solely rely other teams however as it has to get out of this funk with less than two weeks left in the regular season. Despite the loss last night, the Braves are 28-14 in their last 42 games against National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse. St. Louis moved into sole possession of the second Wild Card spot in the National League with Colorado losing, so each remaining game is big for the Cardinals as well. While the offense exploded last night, pitching remains a concern as they have allowed more than three runs in 13 of their last 16 games, giving up an average of 5.9 rpg. There have been several career resurgences this season from pitchers and Anibal Sanchez is part of that group. He has a 3.01 ERA through 19 starts and this is significant considering he posted a 5.67 ERA over the previous three season in Detroit over 88 starts. The Braves are 7-1 in his last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Austin Gomber had a very good run going but got lit up for seven runs against the Dodgers last time out and he could be in trouble again here as Atlanta is hitting .271 against left-handed pitching this season which is third best in baseball. 10* (906) Atlanta Braves |
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09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -130 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. Arizona lost two of three in Houston after losing three of four in Colorado so it was not the roadtrip it envisioned and the Diamondbacks have not won a series since taking two games from the angels back on August 21 and 22. Arizona remains 4.5 games out of first place in the National League West and four games out of the second Wild Card spot. They have won 12 of 17 games after allowing five or more runs and the Diamondbacks are 10-4 in their last 14 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. The Cubs took their series with Cincinnati but did lose Sunday to remain 2.5 games ahead of the Brewers in the National League Central. The offense is struggling and Chicago is just 7-13 this season after batting .200 or worse in a three-game span. Patrick Corbin is having a very solid season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 30 starts, half of which have come at home and 10 of those resulted in quality outings. He has faced the Cubs at home twice and he allowed one run over 12.2 innings. He is third in the league in strikeouts and that is not ideal for a Chicago team that is showing no life on offense. The Cubs are 2-5 in their last seven games against left-handed starters. Kyle Henricks has been on a decent run but he has not looked great on the road with a 3.89 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts. Here, we play on home favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings, with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.00 the last five games. This situation is 43-6 (87.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-16-18 | Twins v. Royals -105 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. While this could typically qualify for a contrarian play based on the Royals having won the first four gamers of this series, we will back Kansas City to get the sweep as the price is too good in this matchup. The Royals have won five of their last six games and 14 of their last 20, They will be trying to close out their first four-game sweep since taking four straight from the Twins in August of 2016. Minnesota are now 4-10 in September and with the exception of two 10-run outbursts, it has averaged 2.7 rpg in the other 12 games. The Twins are 8-21 in their last 29 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Jakob Junis has been dealing as he has a 1.88 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in his last three starts and he has allowed two runs or less in seven straight outings. Kyle Gibson has had a solid season for Minnesota but he has been inconsistent of late and he has taken the loss in four straight games. He is getting just 3.1 rpg of support on the road and the Twins are 4-11 in his last 15 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Kansas City falls into a solid situation as we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season but with a recent WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 39-12 (76.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals |
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09-15-18 | White Sox -120 v. Orioles | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Chicago has won two straight games after a seven-game losing streak which killed momentum from a nice 14-6 run for the young White Sox as they vow to continue to play strong to end the season. Despite being 12 games under .500 on the road, the White Sox are 13-5 in their last 18 road games. It has been a brutal season for the Orioles which are 2-11 over their last 13 games and are almost an unfathomable 63 games under .500. While it was a rebuilding year, no one expected this as they have been outscored by 252 runs overall. Yet they come in as a slight underdog despite no offense and a major pitching disadvantage. Yefry Ramirez will be making his tenth start of the season as he comes back out of the bullpen for a spot start. He has pitched well in relief but in his nine starts, he has a 7.34 ERA which consists of no quality outings. Reynaldo Lopez counters for Chicago and he is on a solid run as he has tossed three straight quality outings, posting a 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in those games. Here, we play on American League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with an on-base percentage of .320 or worse and a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.55 or worse. This situation is 89-54 ATS (62.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (969) Chicago White Sox |
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09-14-18 | Rockies v. Giants +126 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 126 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Colorado is coming off a very important series win over Arizona as it took three of four to maintain its lead in the National League West at two games over the Dodgers. Despite being 16 games over .500, the Rockies are just +5 in run differential as they have been fortunate to win a lot of one-run games along the way. They have been a solid road team all season and going back to mid-August, this is their seventh straight game as road favorites, having gone just 3-3 in those previous six. San Francisco has been in a major funk as it has lost 11 straight games. The pitching has been okay during this stretch but the offense has been downright offensive as the Giants have scored three runs or less in 10 of those games including eight in a row. The last time they scored more than three runs came against the Rockies and Tyler Anderson who has struggling in a major way. He was cruising along with a 3.57 ERA through his first 21 starts but over his last eight starts, he has posted a 9.42 ERA with only one quality start over that stretch. Colorado has lost eight of his last nine starts and in three starts at AT&T Park, he has a 7.04 ERA. Chris Stratton has been up and down but has put together a solid stretch where he has a 2.84 ERA over his last four starts. The Giants are 8-0 in his last eight home starts against winning teams. Here, we play on National League home underdogs that are hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.50 or worse over his last 10 starts. This situation is 33-18 (64.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (912) San Francisco Giants |
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09-13-18 | Cubs -124 v. Nationals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. This is a makeup game from the game that was rained out on Sunday and it is a big one for the Cubs. They are coming off a series loss against the Brewers and saw their lead shrink to one game in the National League Central so this one game trip means a lot at this stage of the season. The Cubs are 21-7 in their last 28 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Washington is coming off a three-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia to make it five straight wins but it is likely too little, too late for the Nationals. They are back home where there has been no home field advantage this summer as they are just one game over .500. Mike Montgomery has been solid with a 3.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 15 starts and those numbers improve on the road. He benefits for this being his first start against the Nationals and one of his strengths is he keeps the ball on the ground and has allowed only seven home runs this season. Washington is just 12-21 against pitchers who gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start this season. Joe Ross counters for the Nationals and he looks to get in his first full start in 14 months. He rejoined the rotation last week, but his start, which was his first since undergoing Tommy John surgery in July of 2017, was rained out after just 1.2 innings. Coming off an injury like that, we are not sure what to expect and the Cubs are 12-5 in their last 17 games against right-handed starters. 10* (965) Chicago Cubs |
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09-12-18 | Padres v. Mariners -144 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Like Tampa Bay, Seattle is 8.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League and while getting there seems unlikely, the Mariners have to keep fighting because you just never know. They are coming off a tough loss last night as they managed only one run and gave up the winning run in the top of the ninth inning. It has been a poor homestand as they are just 3-4 although three of those games were against the Yankees. Seattle needs to close out strong as it heads out on a 10-game divisional roadtrip after today. San Diego is 4-3 on this current roadtrip and the win last night was a rare one against a left-handed starter as the Padres are 16-41 in their last 57 road games against left-handed starters while going 13-32 against left-handed starters this season. The bad news is they face another one and one that is red hot as Wade LeBlanc, who is having a great season overall, has posted a 0.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts after a couple of rough starts in August. Those two bad outings came against the Astros and Dodgers however and he gets a great matchup tonight. Joey Lucchesi counters for San Diego and he is having a solid rookie season with a 3.59 ERA and 1.265 WHIP and while his numbers are better on the road, he gets no run support and the Padres are 1-4 in his last five road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (930) Seattle Mariners |
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09-11-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -132 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee has won four straight games and coupled with the Cubs three-game skid, the Brewers have moved just one game back in the National League Central. They are two games back in the loss column which is the problem but if anything, they do have a firm hold on the first spot in the National League Wild Card. Milwaukee is still just 38-35 on the road and the Brewers are 2-6 in their last eight games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. The Cubs lost for just the 25th time at home which are the fewest losses of any team in the National League. Chicago has had its issues with lefties of late but have been crushing righties and the Cubs are 21-6 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starters. They face Jhoulys Chacin who is putting together a career season as he has tied his career win total and currently has his best WHIP ever. Since August, he has been laboring however and he has been fortunate he has not allowed more runs as he has a 1.41 WHIP over his last seven starts. After a pair pf gems against the Cubs earlier in the season, they got to him for three runs on seven hits in just 4.2 innings last week. Jose Quintana has put together two straight quality starts and has allowed two runs or less in four straight games following a rough stretch before that. With the exception of one bad outing last month, he has dominated the Brewers since coming to Chicago, posting a 1.05 in the other six starts. The Cubs are 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and going back, he excels later in the season as his teams are 19-4 in his last 23 home games in the second half of the season. 10* (958) Chicago Cubs |
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09-09-18 | Cardinals -114 v. Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. We lost a tough one with the Cardinals last night as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit to tie the game in the ninth inning only to end up losing in the bottom half of the frame on a wild pitch. St. Louis has now dropped five of its last seven games to fall two and a half games behind Milwaukee for the first Wild Card spot in the National League and is fortunate to still be a game up on the Dodgers. Despite losses in the first two games of this series, the Cardinals possess the second best road record in the National League, winning 12 of their last 16. Detroit has won four straight games as the pitching has been spot on but comes to an end eventually and that thought is today. Michael Fulmer has been a tough luck pitcher all season as Detroit has given him only 2.7 rpg through 22 starts but he has not helped matters with his 4.57 ERA. Going back, the Tigers are 6-23 in his last 29 starts. John Gant has pitched very well since entering the rotation and after a poor outing against the Pirates to open August, he has posted a 1.38 ERA over his last six starts. The Cardinals fall into a great situation where we play against American League teams with an OBP of .310 or worse and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs last outing going up a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 or better. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (979) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-08-18 | Yankees v. Mariners +106 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Yankees got a gem last night from Masahiro Tanaka who tossed eight shutout innings in a 4-0 victory. They improved to 40-29 on the road but overall, it has been a pretty average stretch as New York is just 5-6 over its last 11 games as is 8.5 games behind Boston in the American League East. A Wild Card spot is likely but the one team that can make things interesting in Seattle which is 6.5 games back following the loss last night. The Mariners fell to 2-2 on this current homestand but are still 40-30 at home and have won four straight games following a loss while the Yankees are 4-13 in their last 17 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Felix Hernandez is far from the ace he used to be but he is in a good spot here at home where he has pitched much better than on the road. He has always pitched well against the Yankees and one of his better road starts this season came in New York. Lance Lynn was exceptional in his first two starts with the Yankees but he has been awful since then. In his last four outings, he has a 9.50 ERA and all four of those starts came against teams not even sniffing the postseason. He has struggled in opposing ball parks all season as he has a 6.42 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 13 road starts and while most of those came with the Twins, he cannot be trusted in the role of a road favorite even though it is a short number. 10* (928) Seattle Mariners |
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09-07-18 | Phillies -145 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Phillies are playing themselves right out of the playoffs as they dropped two of three in Miami and are now 1-4 to start the month. They were in great position in the division but after losing 18 of their 28 games, they are 3.5 games behind the Braves in the National League East. This continues a stretch of 12 of 15 games against the Mets and Marlins so Philadelphia has to take advantage and especially tonight with their ace on the hill. The Mets closed their roadtrip with a 4-1 record but they have been a much worse team at home as they are 11 games under .500 and possess the second worst home record in the National League. Aaron Nola has been dominant at home with the Phillies going 12-2 in his 14 starts but his numbers are just as good on the road and they are 11-1 in his last 12 starts against teams with a losing record. Steven Matz has put together a pair of quality outings but this is not a good spot as the Mets are 2-9 in his last 11 home starts against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia falls into a great situation where we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .255 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 81-33 (71.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (957) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-06-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Atlanta was in great position to salvage the series finale against Boston yesterday as it held a 7-1 lead going into the eighth inning and the Red Sox did it again by scoring eight runs over the final two innings to pull off the 9-8 win. That type of loss is tough to overcome and the Braves head west for a seven-game roadtrip that starts off in a tough spot tonight. Arizona had a rare Wednesday off day after a 6-0 shutout of the Padres on Tuesday but the Diamondbacks fell two games behind Colorado in the National League West following the Rockies fifth straight win last night. This is the start of 20 straight games against teams ahead of them in the playoffs so the schedule is not in their favor and tonight is the type of game they have to take advantage of. Zack Greinke gets the ball as he looks to continue his home domination where he has a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 14 starts, allowing two runs or less in 13 of those. He has been one of the most dominant pitchers in a spot like this over the last few years as his teams are 100-30 as favorites of -150 or more. Anibal Sanchez looks to stop the bleeding for the Braves as he looks to continue his improbable comeback. He has a 2.98 ERA through 19 starts but Atlanta is 2-7 over his last nine outings as he has received three runs or less in eight of those and that should continue tonight. Arizona falls into a spectacular situation where we play on favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games. This situation is 38-5 (88.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-05-18 | Rays -127 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. While making a run at the playoffs will not happen for Tampa Bay, it has to be encouraged for the season it has had. The Rays are now 12 games over .500 following their fourth straight win and are 13-2 over their last 15 games. The offense has been hitting the ball better but it is the pitching that has led the way as Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 2.5 rpg over the 15-game stretch. With the win last night, the Rays are 6-0 in their last six games against teams with a losing record. Toronto is going the opposite way as it has lost seven of its last nine games and it is one of just seven teams that has a scoring differential of more than -100. The Blue Jays have been better at home than on the road but with all of the trades and call-ups, there is not much chemistry going on right now. Toronto is 3-8 in its last 11 games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. The bullpen pitching approach has been working for Tampa Bay but so has the insertion of Tyler Glasnow into the rotation. Since coming from Pittsburgh, the Rays eased him in and he is now being stretched out and it is working as he has a 3.23 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in six starts. Aaron Sanchez has allowed 11 runs in two starts since coming back from the disabled list but the offense has bailed him out, something we do not expect here. The Rays are 16-5 in their last 21 games against right-handed starters. 10* (965) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-04-18 | Angels v. Rangers -112 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Los Angeles is 3-2 on this current roadtrip following a series opening win last night behind a solid outing from Matt Shoemaker, who made his first start since the season opener, and the bullpen as it allowed just one run. the offense continues to struggle however as the angels have scored three runs or less in four straight games and nine of their last 11. Despite the win last night, the Angels have lost 10 of their last 14 divisional games. Texas could not keep the momentum going after scoring 18 runs on Sunday as it managed to plate just one run yesterday but we expect the Rangers to bounce back tonight. The Rangers are 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game and while home field has not been great this season, Texas is still a solid 37-20 in its last 57 home games as a favorite of -150 or less. Additionally, the Rangers are 11-5 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. Mike Minor has been a pleasant surprise to the Rangers rotation as his 4.33 ERA looks average but backs it up with a 1.11 WHIP through 24 starts. His pitching has been better at home than on the road, and by a big margin, so the price here is a good one. Andrew Heaney is coming off one of his best starts of the season but this is not an ideal situation as in three starts in Texas, he has a 10.39 ERA. Here, we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 and with a WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (920) Texas Rangers |
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09-03-18 | Reds v. Pirates -132 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. The Reds won in extra innings yesterday despite getting outhit and they took the final two games against the Cardinals to win their first road series in six weeks. This is a great time to go against them as Anthony DeSclafani lasted only 3.2 innings so the bullpen was nearly maxed out yesterday which puts added pressure on Matt Harvey this afternoon. Despite the win, the Reds have the second worst road record in the National League and they have dropped 15 of their last 20 games on the highway. The Pirates are all but done in the National League Wild Card race following a 3-6 roadtrip but they head home where they have a winning record and are laying a short number in what is a huge pitching advantage. Trevor Williams has quietly put together a very strong season as he has a 3.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 26 starts and he has been consistent as his home and road splits are nearly identical. He has been at his best most recent as over his last eight starts, he has posted a 0.75 ERA, allowing one run or less in seven of those games. The Pirates are 6-1 in his last seven home starts against teams with a losing record. Matt Harvey had a decent three-game stretch but was shelled by the Brewers in his last game and he hits the road where he has just one quality outings in 11 starts. The competition has not mattered as the Reds are 1-6 in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. 10* (956) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-02-18 | Pirates v. Braves -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. We won with the Braves last night and we will back them again tonight in another great pitching situation. They snapped a three-game slide and saw their lead in the National League East grow to three games over the Phillies and with Boston coming to town for three games, this has turned into a big series ending game. After the victory last night, the Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record. Pittsburgh continued its offensive woes as it managed only three runs which was the 14th time is their last 18 games they have scored three runs or less. Pittsburgh is hitting just .209 over its last five games and going back, the Pirates are 17-41 in their last 58 road games against teams with a winning home record. We used Julio Teheran in his last start and quite frankly, he stunk, but the offense carried him in a 9-5 win over Tampa Bay. We will tail him again as he was solid heading into that outing as he posted three straight quality starts and he allowed three runs or less in five straight home outings. He ha dominated the Pirates in four starts since 206 as he has a 0.33 ERA. Nick Kingham returns to the rotation after being demoted in early August and them being recalled last week to work out of the bullpen. As a starter, he has struggled with a 5.02 ERA in 12 starts. Here, we play on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 70-28 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) Atlanta Braves |
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09-01-18 | Rays +113 v. Indians | Top | 5-3 | Win | 113 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Cleveland took the opener of this series last night with a 3-0 victory thanks to a solid outing from Corey Kluber. The Indians will not have that type of advantage tonight as they continue to coast with a 14-game lead in the American League Central and likely third place among the three division winners. The big news yesterday was the acquisition of Josh Donaldson from Toronto but that does not come into play as there is no timetable for his return from a calf injury. Tampa Bay has lost two of three but is 9-2 over its last 11 games and has a solid edge tonight on the bump. When you can get an ace, and a real ace, at an underdog price, you have to jump on it. Blake Snell is a name not many know of but he is having a Cy Young type of season with a 2.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 25 starts and he posted a 1.38 in five August starts, allowing no more than a run in each outing. The Rays are 11-4 in his 15 starts when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Shane Bieber is 8-2 in his 14 starts but that record does not tell a true story as he has posted a 4.52 ERA and his numbers are worse at home. Since the start of July, he has a 7.08 ERA in four home outings and that is bad news as the Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games against right-handed starters. 10* (971) Tampa Bay Rays |
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08-31-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We are getting fair value on the Dodgers which are in dire need of a win following a loss in the series opener last night. They are now two games behind in the National League West and are 2.5 games out of the second spot in the National League Wild Card race. Los Angeles has been a disappointment at home all season as after going 63-26 for +14.6 units last season, it is just 35-34 for -25.2 units this year. The Dodgers have laid some big numbers but that is not the case tonight. Arizona has won two straight games and while the pitching has been dominant of late, the offense has done nothing as the Diamondbacks have averaged just 2.4 rpg over their last seven games. Zack Greinke is a big reason this line is low as he is still a top line pitcher with a 2.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the season. However, his ERA on the road is a run and a half higher than it is at home. He was great as a Dodger here but since coming to Arizona, he has a 7.04 ERA in four starts at Dodger Stadium. Hyun-Jin Ryu has made only nine starts but he has been solid with a 2.18 ERA and 1.01 WHIP which includes a 1.26 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five home starts with the Dodgers going 4-1. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ARIZONA) - after allowing two runs or less in four straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 68-32 (68 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-30-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -106 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. The Pirates cooled off the red hot Cardinals last night as Trevor Williams and the bullpen shut out St. Louis which was the first time the Cardinals have not scored since July 11th. August has been a great month for St. Louis as it is 20-6 which has propelled it into the top spot in the National League Wild Card race. They are still in the divisional hunt as well as they trail first place Chicago by just 4.5 games. St. Louis is 17-4 this season after scoring and allowing three runs or less. The Pirates have been going in the opposite direction as they have lost 11 of their last 15 games as the offense has completely shut down. Pittsburgh has averaged a mere 2.6 rpg over this 15-game stretch. Going back, the Pirates are 16-39 in their last 55 road games against teams with a winning home record. John Gant has been on a roll as he has posted a 1.99 ERA over his last four starts, allowing two runs or less in each game. He has struggled against Pittsburgh but all three career starts came on the road. Joe Musgrove has been a solid addition to the Pirates rotation but the wins have been few and far between as they have gone 1-4 over his last five outings. 10* (954) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-29-18 | Blue Jays +103 v. Orioles | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Orioles have won the first two games of this series which snapped a 10-game losing streak against Toronto as the offense has exploded for 19 runs. It has not been a good spot though as the Orioles are 8-21 in their last 29 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Baltimore has not won three straight games since the end of July and even with the win last night, it is 1-6 in its last seven games following a win. Toronto has dropped three in a row following a five-game winning streak as the pitching has been dreadful, allowing 27 runs over the three-game skid. Ryan Borucki gets the ball for Toronto and he has seven quality outings in his 11 starts. Of the four that were not, three came against the Red Sox and Yankees so we can expect another strong outing tonight. Alex Cobb has been pitching a lot better after a horrible start to the season but it is impossible to ignore the fact Baltimore is 0-9 in his nine home starts and there is no reason to believe this streak gets broken. His run support has been poor and his 5.86 ERA has not helped. Toronto falls into a contrarian situation where we play on American League teams averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg while hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 300-198 (60.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (917) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-28-18 | Rays v. Braves -125 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Atlanta is coming off a successful 5-2 roadtrip and it has been able to widen the gap over the Phillies in the National League East to 3.5-games. This is the first time the Braves have been home since getting swept by Colorado in a four-game set to there will be plenty of motivation back in front of the home crowd. Additionally, the Braves are 7-0 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. A big reason why this line is so low is because the Rays have won eight straight games. While they are thinking of a playoff push, it is not going to happen despite the pitching dominance of late. Tampa Bay has allowed three runs or less in all eight of the victories as it continues to utilize the bullpen pitching for the majority of the games. Ryan Stanek has been used the most with mixed results as the Rays are 9-21 in the 21 games he has started, and he has been average, especially on the road where Tampa Bay has gone 1-7 in his eight starts. Julio Teheran counters for Atlanta and he is in a good stretch with three straight quality starts and he has allowed three runs or less in five straight home outings. 10* (974) Atlanta Braves |
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08-27-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +131 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 131 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. We played against Toronto yesterday and will do so again on Monday as it comes in as a significant road favorite for all of the wrong reasons. The Blue Jays had won five straight games before the defeat on Monday and now they hit the road where they are 11 games under .500 and going back they are 1-5 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Orioles are the worst team in baseball as they have lost eight straight games including a four-game sweep to the Yankees to end the week. Included in there were three losses to Toronto which made it 10 consecutive losses to the Blue Jays, but the schedule has played a big role in that as all 10 of those games came in Toronto. The Orioles are 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. David Hess has some bad numbers, but he has turned the corner by posting a 2.89 ERA over his last three starts with each of those getting progressively better. In addition, all of those came on the road and if ever there is a contrarian play, this is it with the Orioles having lost his last 10 starts. That includes two against Toronto, but both were quality road starts. Sam Gaviglio gets the ball for Toronto and this is the most he has been favored by on the road all season. He has just one quality outing in nine road starts where he has posted an 8.36 ERA. An argument can be made he is facing the worst team in baseball but in his last road start, he was rocked by Kansas City, the second worst team in baseball. 10* (910) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-26-18 | Phillies -111 v. Blue Jays | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. It has been a rough stretch for the Phillies as they have dropped six of their last seven games but luckily, Atlanta has not been playing well either as they trail the Braves by just two games in the National League East. The Phillies are 14-3 in their last 17 games after losing the first two games of a series. Toronto meanwhile is going for a sweep of this homestand as it has won the first five games as the offense has averaged a healthy 6.2 rpg during the winning streak. However, the Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last five games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Vince Velazquez looks to stop the bleeding for Philadelphia and while a quick glance shows a recent poor stretch, it has not been that bad. He was limited to in his last start because of a rain delay and he was pitching well against Washington. He has a 2.97 ERA in 11 road starts and the fact the Phillies has lost his last six is keeping this number in a good place. Marco Estrada has been up and down, but it has mostly been the latter as he has just one quality outing over his last seven starts. The Blue Jays are 2-9 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (975) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-25-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies -140 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Rockies were a big letdown last night as they generated 15 hits but managed only five runs as they left 24 men on base. Colorado remains a game behind Arizona in the National League West and has also fallen a game out of the Wild Card chase. St. Louis is now 4-0 on this current roadtrip following last night and a three-game sweep of the Dodgers. The Cardinals are rolling with the best record in baseball for August which propelled it into the first Wild Card spot in the National League. That is keeping this line down and despite the loss on Friday, the Rockies are 12-3 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record. German Marquez has been on a roll as he has tossed five straight quality starts as well as eight of his last nine. This includes three quality outings at home and he is on pace to keep it going. The Rockies are 7-2 in his last nine starts against teams with a winning record. Miles Mikolas struggled in his first start at Coors Field and we are expecting the same for John Gant. He has just two quality outings in his five road starts and those came against the Marlins and Giants, two of the three lowest scoring teams in the National League. The Cardinals are 3-8 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. Additionally, we play on National League home favorites of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 132-59 (69.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies +104 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We won with the Rockies yesterday as things were looking bleak before Ian Desmond hit a two-run home run with two outs in the ninth innings to pull off the 4-3 victory. Colorado remains a game behind Arizona in the National League West and while home cooking has not been as great as it has been in previous years, being a home underdog here is not justified in looking at the big picture. St. Louis is rolling right now, winning 17 of its last 21 games following a three-game sweep over the Dodgers to open this roadtrip. The Cardinals are now right in the playoff mix as they are just three games behind the Cubs in the National League Central and they hold a half-game lead in the Wild Card standings. Miles Mikolas has to be a frontrunner for comeback players of the year as he has been great with a 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 25 starts following a three-year stint in Japan after a dreadful year in Texas in 2014. He is 7-0 on the road despite an ERA that is higher than it is at home and he gets his first taste of Coors Field tonight with the wind blowing out on top of it. Antonio Senzatela gets the ball for Colorado and he is making his seventh start since entering the rotation. It has been uneven but what he has pitched great at home with a 0.71 in two home starts. On top of that, his best road start of the season came in St. Louis where he allowed just one run in six innings. 10* (960) Colorado Rockies |
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08-22-18 | Braves v. Pirates -105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. After getting swept in four games at home against Colorado, the Braves have responded with a pair of wins to open this series as the pitching has led the way by allowing just one run total. They got a gem from Kevin Gausman last night and they now have a two-game lead over Philadelphia in the National League East. Atlanta has been a solid road team this season, but a lot of that success came early as the Braves are just 10-10 over their last 20 road games. The Pittsburgh offense continues to struggle as the Pirates have scored four runs or less in 10 straight games which has come right after a four-game stretch where they plated 34 runs. So far on this six-game homestand, Pittsburgh has been shutout three times and has scored 1, 2 and 3 runs in the other three games. While all of this may seem as a reason not to back the Pirates, they are facing Julio Teheran who can be a very good pitcher, but he has his moments of blowing up and that is especially the case on the road. Over his last three road games, he has a 9.00 ERA, allowing 15 runs in 15 innings and while one of those games was against the Yankees, the other two were against the Mets and Marlins, two of the lowest scoring teams in baseball. The Braves are 0-4 in his last four starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Trevor Williams meanwhile has been outstanding as he has posted a 0.75 ERA over his last six starts, allowing not a single run in four of those. 10* (954) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-21-18 | Twins v. White Sox +106 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Chicago won last night in Minnesota to make it five wins in its last six games and now the teams head to Chicago for the next two games. The White Sox have struggled both at home and on the road so the fact they are home underdogs tonight should come as no surprise with the pitching matchup and what the public sees. The offense has been hot as Chicago has averaged 7.4 rpg over this stretch and has a chance to keep it going here. The Twins have been playing well this month but most of the success has taken place at home where they have gone 19-6 over their last 25 games but they are just 2-8 over their last 10 road games. And it has not just been against good teams as going back, the Twins are 1-7 in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Jose Berrios gets the attention here as he is an All Star, but he has struggled since a good start to the season. He had a 3.15 ERA through his first 16 starts but he has posted a 4.30 ERA over his last 10 games. He prefers pitching at home as opposed to on the road and this has been the case his whole career as he has a 3.75 ERA in 31 home games but that jumps to a 5.27 ERA in 34 road games and going back, the Twins are 4-18 in his last 22 road starts. White Sox fans will get their first look at Michael Kopech who is making his Major League debut. He was traded over from Boston in the Chris Sale deal and he is the top pitching prospect on the team while being the overall No. 9 prospect in baseball as of last month. He posted a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts this season at Triple-A Charlotte with 170 strikeouts in 126. innings and has been outstanding over his past seven starts, going 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA over that stretch. 10* (920) Chicago White Sox |
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08-20-18 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -171 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers took tow of three in Seattle over the weekend and have won three of their last four games following a five-game losing streak that sent them into third place in the National League West. They are two games behind Arizona and a game and a half behind Colorado which is also the deficit for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Dodgers are 92-43 in their last 135 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis lost Sunday against Milwaukee which put a temporary halt on their hot streak where they were 10-1 over their previous 11 games. St. Louis has won five straight road games, but it has not faced a winning team on the road since late July. Los Angeles sends Alex Wood to the hill and he has been excellent of late, allowing three runs or less in 11 straight starts, posting a 2.53 ERA over that stretch. Going back, the Dodgers are 17-4 in his last 21 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis counters with Austin Gomber who has gotten off to a solid start since entering the rotation. He has made four starts and has allowed two runs or less three times but only one of those games came against a winning team at that team is just one game over .500. Los Angeles is 62-29 in their last 91 games against left-handed starters and fall into a solid situation where we play against National League underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are averaging 4.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 83-21 (79.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (958) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-19-18 | Rockies v. Braves -127 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -127 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We are going back to the well one more time with the Braves after a brutal loss last night as they blew a 3-0 lead in the ninth inning with two outs and nobody on before eventually losing in extra innings. Atlanta ha dropped the first three games of this series and last night was the second time in the first three games that it has allowed three ninth-inning runs to eventually lose. The Braves are still a half-game up on the Phillies in the National League East thanks to another gem from Jacob deGrom in his win over Philadelphia yesterday. The Rockies have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last couple months and they can take the lead in the National League West with a win and an Arizona loss, but we do not see either happening today. German Marquez takes the hill for Colorado and while he has had his struggles at home, he has been solid on the road with a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts but this is not a good spot. He allowed seven runs against Atlanta in his first start against the Braves this season and on the year, he has allowed 20 home runs, which is tied for tenth most in the National League, and the Braves are 11-3 after two straight games with no home runs this season. Anibal Sanchez has to be at the top of the list for most surprising pitcher as he has a 3.07 ERA through 16 starts after posting a 5.67 ERA over the last three years covering 415.2 innings. The Braves are 6-0 in his last 6 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (908) Atlanta Braves |
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08-18-18 | Royals +123 v. White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 123 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Yes, we are betting on the second worst team in baseball. Even bad teams win at least 30 percent of the time so picking the right spots is essential and this is one of those. As no surprise, the Royals come as underdogs once again, but they possess a significant edge on the mound in a good spot to steal Game Two. The White Sox have won three straight games and have been playing solid baseball this month as they are 8-7 in August but three of those losses came with Dylan Covey was on the hill and all were at home. He has a 6.06 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 16 starts and the numbers are not much better at home where he has a 5.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. The White Sox are 0-5 in his last five home starts. Brad Keller has been a solid addition to the rotation as he has a 3.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 13 starts which came after 21 relief appearances. His first start here was not good but he came back by allowing two runs in 6.2 innings in his encore against the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Here, we play against American League home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start. This situation is 33-14 (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (973) Kansas City Royals |
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08-17-18 | Diamondbacks -123 v. Padres | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Arizona took the opener of this series last night to maintain its 1.5-game lead over Colorado in the National League West. It moved to 3-3 on this current roadtrip and the success should continue as the Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Padres have lost four straight games as the offense continues to produce nothing as they have scored just nine runs over the three games. San Diego has lost 21 of its last 26 home games. Arizona sends Robbie Ray to the hill and has admittedly been inconsistent this season as Arizona has lost his last five starts but he pitched well in the three road outings. He has been exceptional away from home with a 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and going back, the Diamondbacks are 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a road favorite of -110 or higher. Additionally, Arizona is 10-0 in his last 10 road games against National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse. Joey Lucchesi has pitched well for San Diego this season, but he is coming off his first quality outing since April 15th and that was just the third time all season he was able to go six innings. The Padres are 0-6 in his last six starts against the National League West. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .255 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75. This situation is 87-37 (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-16-18 | Blue Jays -128 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with Toronto last night as it won its second straight 6-5 game and looks to take the series tonight. The Blue Jays are now 20-7 in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 and thy are in good position to keep the offense rolling tonight before heading to New York for a three-game set with the Yankees. They were able to get to Jorge Lopez who was making just his third Major League start and tonight they will be facing a pitcher making his first ever Major League start. Kansas City remains a half-game ahead of Baltimore for the worst record in baseball as the Royals are now 48 games under .500 which almost seems unfathomable considering they won the World Series just three years ago. The Royals are 19-46 in their last 65 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Sam Gaviglio takes the hill for Toronto and he has been having an inconsistent season and while it may be surprising that he is favored on the road because of his numbers, it is not surprising. His numbers on the road are not good but it has been a brutal slate as all eight of his road starts have come against teams with winning records including five against teams currently holding down playoff spots. Glenn Sparkman has pitched in 10 Major League games, all in relief, and has an 8.47 ERA and 2.12 WHIP over 17 innings. We just cannot see him being able to have much success here. 10* (969) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-15-18 | Blue Jays -140 v. Royals | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Toronto scored two runs in the eighth inning to pull out the come-from-behind victory and while putting together winning streaks has been a challenge of late, the Blue Jays are in a good spot tonight. this line came out late due to the Royals pitching situation and that is where Toronto has the real edge. The Blue Jays are 20-7 in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. While Baltimore has taken the brunt of the jokes for having an awful season, Kansas City is not far behind as the loss last night dropped the Royals to 36-83 including 17-43 at home. The Royals are 21-48 in their last 69 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Jorge Lopez will be making his first start for the Royals and his first start in MLB since 2015. We are not expecting much as he has been used as a reliever for over a year in the Brewers organization. There is not much recent data to go on with him working as a starter, but he tossed 5.2 scoreless innings while striking out seven in a start for Triple-A Omaha last week. This is a tough spot against a Blue Jays team that ranks eighth in the majors with a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since June 1st. Marco Estrada has been up and down for the Blue Jays this season, but he has been pitching better. He had a 5.68 ERA through May, but he has posted a 3.80 ERA over his last nine games. The Blue Jays are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (915) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-15-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -134 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. Milwaukee will not go away in the National League Central as the 7-0 victory yesterday afternoon brought it back to within two games of the Cubs in the National League Central. The Brewers were 2-5 over their previous seven games so they are not playing great right now and have gone just 1-4 in their last five games following a victory. The Cubs have been stuck in neutral as well as they are 2-3 over their last five games and could not build off of that miraculous walk-off grand slam win, partly because they had Monday off. They have been a great bounce back team of late as the Cubs are 5-1 in their last six games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game while going 17-5 in their last 22 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Kyle Hendricks has been on a pretty good roll as he has a 3.46 ERA over his last seven starts and the Cubs have won five of his last six starts at home. Pitching in Wrigley Field and during the day have been his two best situations and he will make Milwaukee earn it as his 34 walks are fifth fewest in the National League. Junior Guerra has tossed two straight quality outings but those were at home where eight of his last 11 starts have taken place. In the three road starts, he has a 9.64 ERA. The Brewers are 3-13 in his last 16 starts as an underdog of +150 or less. 9* (902) Chicago Cubs |
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08-14-18 | Mets v. Orioles -110 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Mets are coming off an upset win last night over the Yankees to make it two straight wins but winning three in a row will be a challenge as it has done so only three times since May 22nd. The Mets are just 11-28 in their last 39 games following any sort of win. Additionally, they are 0-6 in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Baltimore owns the worst record in baseball and is coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox, but the Orioles catch a winnable home game which have been few and far between as the home schedule has been brutal for the last two months. They are 5-1 in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. Baltimore hands the ball to Andrew Cashner who has been very inconsistent this season, but he has been solid for the most part of late. He had a horrible start in Texas at the least pitcher-friendly park in baseball, and a bad home start against the Yankees but he has allowed three runs or less in 15 of his other 16 starts dating back to May 4th. New York turns to Jason Vargas who has yet to toss a quality outing in 11 starts and the Mets are 1-6 in his last seven starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (970) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-13-18 | Mariners v. A's -116 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought, four-game series sweep over Houston to move to within four games of the Astros in the American League West and to within a game and a half of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Mariners were in a big time slump prior to those four games and we can see them coming back to reality as they conclude this roadtrip with another tough series. Oakland took two of three games against the Angels in Los Angeles as it continues its red hot run. The A's have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last two months as they are 36-12 over their last 48 games and they were able to leapfrog over the Mariners in the American League West over the last week. Oakland is just 2.5 games behind Houston in the division and it is in a good spot to keep rolling as it has won 15 of its last 18 home games while going 18-4 in its last 22 games against American League teams with a batting average of .265 or worse. Sean Manaea gets the ball for Oakland and he is coming off a poor outing against the Dodgers where he lacked him typical command, but we should see a bounce back here. He has been great at home with a 3.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 starts, eight of which have been quality outings. The Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters. Marco Gonzales is also coming off a poor outing and his was much worse against a much worse team as he allowed seven runs in five innings at Texas. He has a 4.42 ERA on the road and faces an Oakland team that is 9-2 in its last 11 games against left-handed starters. 10* (912) Oakland A's |
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08-12-18 | Pirates v. Giants -108 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Time is running out on both the Pirates and Giants in their pursuit of a Wild Card spot in the National League and it will be up to San Francisco on Sunday to go for a series split. After scoring 13 runs on Friday, the Giants were shutout last night 4-0 despite equaling the Pirates with six hits. The Giants are 7-0 in their last seven games during Game Four of a series. Pittsburgh is 4-2 on this current roadtrip but going back, the Pirates are 17-38 in their last 55 road games against teams with a winning home record. One of the pleasant surprises for what has been a disappointing season overall for the Giants has been the pitching of rookie Dereck Rodriguez who has a 2.34 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts and two relief appearances. He has been even better at home with a 1.99 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in six starts. Joe Musgrove has posted three quality outings since the All Star Break, but this is a pace unlikely to continue as an early start is not a good thing where he has a 6.65 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four daytime starts. We play against teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .280 or better over their last 20 games, in August games. This situation is 97-46 (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) San Francisco Giants |
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08-11-18 | Mets v. Marlins -109 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. New York won the series opener last night to make it two straight wins but winning three in a row will be a challenge as it has done so only twice since May 22nd. The Mets are just 10-27 in their last 37 games following any sort of win while going 8-20 in their last 28 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Miami has lost three straight and nine of 10 games, but it is in good position tonight. Despite the Friday loss, the Marlins are 24-11 in their last 35 home games against teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. Dan Straily gets the ball for Miami and he had a solid run from late June to the All Star Break, but he has struggled in three starts since then. To his credit, those games came against Washington, Philadelphia and Atlanta. The Marlins are 7-1 in his last eight starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Corey Oswalt has pitched well since entering the rotation, but this is his first road start since July 4th and he has a 7.94 ERA in two road starts. One of those came here in his first ever start back in June and Miami got to him for six runs in 2.2 innings. 10* (908) Miami Marlins |
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08-10-18 | Twins v. Tigers +109 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 109 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Minnesota and Detroit are playing out the season as both are double-digit games out in the division and the Wild Card race. The Tigers are back home following a six-game roadtrip where they went 0-6 against Oakland and Los Angeles to fall to 18-41 on the road and those 41 losses are the most on baseball. They are a much more respectable 29-27 at home. Minnesota lost three of four in Cleveland and its 20-37 record on the highway is tied for third worst in baseball. Ervin Santana is making his fourth start with the Twins and while they have won all three of those games, it has had nothing to do with good pitching. He has posted a 6.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 14.2 innings and with the Twins out of the playoff picture, there is no reason to push him over the final few weeks of the season. Santana had not played since he underwent surgery to remove calcium deposits from his right middle finger in early February. Jordan Zimmerman gets the ball for Detroit and following a rough three-game stretch, he rebounded with a quality outing in his last start against Oakland. His last home start was not a good one as he allowed five runs in three innings but that came against Cleveland and overall, he has been solid at home. In six starts, he has a 3.67 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and take that Indians start out and his ERA is 2.59 in the other five outings. 10* (972) Detroit Tigers |
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08-09-18 | Pirates v. Giants -131 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -131 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Giants wasted a pair of strong efforts by Dereck Rodriguez and Madison Bumgarner as they lost both games against Houston to fall a game under .500 and drop back to seven games back in the Wild Card race. They are still a healthy 32-24 at home where both offense and pitching have been consistent, and this is a big series if they have any shot of making a late playoff push. San Francisco is 23-11 in its last 34 home games after allowing three runs or less two straight games while going 7-0 in its last seven games following an off day. The Pirates took two of three in Colorado to gain some ground, moving to five games back in the Wild Card chase. They are one game under .500 on the road and are in a tough spot here as they are 1-11 in their last 12 road games against left-handed starters. Andrew Suarez has not been at his best of late, but he is back home where he has a 3.64 ERA, which is nearly two runs less than his road ERA. Pittsburgh counters with Ivan Nova who has struggled the last two years with the Pirates. He is similar to Suarez in that he pitches much better at home with a 3.55 ERA compared to a 5.40 ERA on the highway. The Giants are 16-6 in their last 22 home games against right-handed starters and they fall into a solid situation where we play on National League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season but with a 7.50 ERA or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 111-44 (71.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) San Francisco Giants |
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08-08-18 | Cardinals v. Marlins +108 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. We won with the Cardinals last night which had a significant pitching advantage and they barely snuck it out but tonight, the edge goes the other way. Despite that, St. Louis is still favored which is not surprising based on overall records, but Miami has an excellent shot to win this series. The Cardinals are in a playoff race as they remain four games behind Atlanta for the second Wild Card spot in the National League, but they have been unable to put anything together by going 3-11 in their last 14 games following a win. The Marlins are 11-5 in their last 16 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game and face John Gant who has been average and is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed six runs in four innings against the Pirates. Three of his four road starts have been non-quality outings and the Marlins are 11-4 in their last 15 home games against right-handed starters. The real story here is Trevor Richards who had a 5.24 ERA after his first two starts in July, but since then, he has posted a 0.76 ERA in his last four starts. He has been solid at home this season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven starts. 10* (960) Miami Marlins |
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08-07-18 | Reds -101 v. Mets | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Mets lost three of four games to the Braves to open this homestand but were able to recover and win last night thanks to a significant starting pitching advantage. That is far from the case tonight and the line is reflecting that as they go from a big favorite to a light underdog in some shops. Cincinnati has lost three straight and six of its seven games on this current roadtrip where it came in a respectable 22-27 which was good for a decent profit. The Mets have overall struggled at Citi Field as they are 11-25 in their last 36 home games while going 9-26 in their last 35 games following a win. Additionally, New York is 11-28 in its last 39 games against National League teams averaging 4.5 or more rpg. The Mets has Noah Syndergaard on the hill last next and they take a big step down with Jason Vargas tonight. in 11 starts, he has yet to toss a quality outing and while his last two starts since coming off the DL have been better than most, he still allowed seven runs over 9.1 innings. Sal Romano has been really good or really bad depending on the start, but he has fared well in a majority of starts against poor offense and New York fits that bill as it is hitting a mere .215 at home which is the worst average in baseball. 10* (905) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-06-18 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -129 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Arizona is coming off a series split with San Francisco following a loss on Sunday which brought it back into a tie for first place with the Dodgers in the National League West. The Diamondbacks have the second best road record in the National League, but they are just 30-28 at home which is a surprise considering they had only 29 home losses all of last season but that is keeping the price down in a good spot for tonight. The Phillies are coming off a four-game sweep over Miami to reach five straight wins and increased their lead in the National League East to a game and a half over Atlanta. Their 38 home wins are the most in the National League, but their 25 road wins are tied for second fewest of teams that have a winning record overall. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to Zack Godley who has been up and down this season but is coming off his best month where he posted a 1.36 WHIP and .243 BA. He is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed just two hits and no runs in seven innings while striking out 10 Rangers. He has allowed three runs or less in eight of 10 home starts and the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six road games against right-handed starters. Jake Arietta is coming off his second straight quality start but comes into a tough spot as Arizona has been crushing right-handed pitching of late as it is hitting .312 over the last 10 games and the Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last four games against right-handed starters. Additionally, we play on National League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season. This situation is 131-58 (69.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (958) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -147 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Mariners continue to slip in the standings as they are now 2.5 games behind Oakland for the second Wild Card spot in the American League following their fifth consecutive loss. This has turned into a huge game for Seattle which heads out on a 10-game divisional roadtrip starting tomorrow and it is imperative for the offense to get something going. The Mariners have scored three runs or less in six straight games, but they have a great chance to bust out today. The Blue Jays have won three straight games but have not won four in a row since a four-game sweep over the Orioles way back on June 10th. Despite the recent offensive outburst, they are still just 10-24 in their last 34 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Mike Leake gets the ball for the Mariners and he has been surprisingly good after a slow start as he has allowed three runs or less in 13 of his last 16 starts including three straight quality outings. The Mariners are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Sam Gaviglio counters for Toronto and he has a rough July with a 7.30 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in six starts. He faces his former team for the first time and the spot is not favorable as we play on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 68-26 (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (926) Seattle Mariners |
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08-04-18 | Braves -119 v. Mets | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. We were on the Mets last night as Jacob deGrom pitched yet another gem, but his offense let him down again as despite allowing four earned runs in five starts against Atlanta, the Mets did not win a single one of those games. New York is in a bad place right now as the offense has managed an average of 2.1 rpg over its last seven games with only one of those resulting in a victory. Going back, the Mets are 4-22 in their last 26 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. The Braves won their fifth straight game but still sit in second place in the National League East by a half-game as the Phillies have won three in a row. They are 6-1 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Kevin Gausman is making his first start for the Braves after being dealt by Baltimore and a change of scenery can do nothing but help. While his numbers this season seem average, which they are, he allowed three runs or less in 15 of his 21 starts with the Orioles. He now has an offense behind him and a renewed confidence after director of pitching Dom Chiti and special assistant to pitching Dave Wallace courted him to Atlanta after working with him earlier in his career. Zack Wheeler counters for New York and he has started the second half with a pair of quality outings, but he has struggled at home with a 4.35 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 11 starts and going back, the Mets are 1-8 in Wheelers last nine home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (961) Atlanta Braves |
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08-03-18 | Braves v. Mets -140 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. This can be considered a contrarian play despite the Mets being favored and sending the National League ERA leader to the hill. We played against New York last night which lost its third straight game and has dropped five of its last six to remain the second worst team in the National League. The Braves have won four straight games as they sit a half-game behind the Phillies in the National League East and the public is on them tonight despite the pitching disadvantage and a reverse line movement. Atlanta is just 4-7 over its last 11 road games and going back, the Braves are 0-5 in their last five games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. The Mets held on to Jacob deGrom with trade rumors surrounding the staff ace and it was a smart move. He leads the league with a 1.82 ERA and because the Mets as a while have been horrible, he has only five wins on the season, but that has not stopped his consistency. He has tossed 13 straight quality starts and has allowed more than three runs only once. Another contrarian aspect is the fact that he has faced the Braves four times already this season and while posting a 0.72 ERA, the Mets are 0-4. Anibal Sanchez has been one of the most surprising pitchers this season with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 ERA, but he is coming off a poor start and we should start seeing regression. Here, we play against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 55-10 (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) New York Mets |
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08-01-18 | Rockies v. Cardinals -125 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals were fairly quiet on trade deadline day with the biggest move sending Tommy Pham to the Rays for three minor leaguers. It was a surprise move considering he was having a good season, so St. Louis did not improve for the present time as it sits 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. Colorado ended July with a 17-6 record and is tied with the Dodgers and Braves for that final Wild Card spot. Only nine of those games were on the road where it went 5-4. Despite being 10 games over .500, the Rockies have a negative scoring differential as the pitching has been inconsistent. Kyle Freeland leads the team in ERA among starters, but he has been more inconsistent on the road than he has at home. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six games against left-handed starter and so far during this homestand, they are hitting .344 against left-handed pitching through five games. St. Louis counters with Luke Weaver who had a rough June but followed that up with a solid July, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four starts. The Cardinals are 15-4 in his last 19 starts against National League teams with an on base percentage .325 or worse while going 5-2 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (908) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-31-18 | Angels -127 v. Rays | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Angels are coming off a 5-5 homestand to remain a game over .500 overall as the playoff hopes are slowing going away. Los Angeles has not exactly thrived on the road, but it is 7-3 in its last 10 games following a loss. Tampa Bay is in the same boat as it has made a recent push after a slow start and sits right at .500 but its 10-game deficit in the Wild Card standings is going to be impossible to overcome. Tampa Bay lost the final three games in Baltimore over the weekend by a combined score of 37-12 and the Rays are now 0-6 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Tyler Skaggs is quietly putting together a spectacular season as he has a 2.62 ERA, which is sixth best in the American League, and he has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts. His numbers are better on the road with a 2.11 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts with the Angels going 7-3 in those games. Ryan Stanek goes for Tampa Bay as it is another game that will be tossed by the bullpen as Stanek will go no more than two innings. The Angels fall into a solid situation where we play against American League home teams that are averaging 4.2 rpg or less after allowing seven runs or more in two straight games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 81-39 (67.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (965) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-30-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -142 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Game of the Month. The Dodgers are back home following a 6-4 roadtrip where they missed out on a four-game sweep against Atlanta over the weekend as they were an out away of getting no-hit on Sunday. Los Angeles is now just a half-game ahead of Arizona in the National League West, but this is a great spot for a bounce back as the Dodgers are 17-4 in their last 21 games following a loss. Milwaukee took the first three games from San Francisco before losing on Sunday to fall a game and a half behind the Cubs in the National League Central. Despite the good series against the Giants, Milwaukee is 4-10 in its last 14 road games. The Dodgers turn to Kenta Maeda who is coming off his worst start since coming off the DL on June 13th, but it still was not bad as he allowed four runs in seven innings at Philadelphia. That capped off a three-game run of starts on the road and back home, he has a 2.74 ERA. Freddy Peralta counters for Milwaukee and after posting a 1.59 ERA in his first four games, he has put up a 6.10 ERA over his last four outings and this is not the desired matchup as the Dodgers are 6-0 in their last six home games against right-handed starters. Additionally, Los Angeles falls into two sensational situations. First, we play against National League underdogs of +150 or more that are hitting .255 or less with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 102-25 (80.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on home favorites of -150 or more that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg after a game where they had four or fewer hits going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better. This situation is 49-11 (81.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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07-29-18 | Twins v. Red Sox -144 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. This is a rare opportunity to get Boston at a reasonable price at home. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball as they are a full 40 games over .500 and their 36-14 home record also tops MLB yet they come into today at a lower than expected moneyline which is due to the starting pitching matchup. This number has been right in their wheelhouse as they are 23-8 on the season when favored by -150 or less and they are 62-26 in their last 88 games against teams with a losing record. The Twins dropped to 19-33 on the road and have lost 14 of their last 19 games on the highway and they are a small underdog today because of Jose Berrios. He is the ace of the staff with a 3.48 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 21 starts but his success has come at home where his ERA is over a run less than it is on the road. Going back, the Twins are 2-12 in his last 14 road starts against teams with a winning record. Nathan Eovaldi is the other part for the reasonable number as he is making his first start for Boston since being acquired from Tampa Bay. He pitched well with the Rays as he posted a 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts with four of his last five starts being quality outings. Here, we play on American League favorites with a moneyline of -125 to -175 that are averaging 5.1 or more rpg with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. This situation is 42-9 (82.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (970) Boston Red Sox |
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07-28-18 | Mariners v. Angels -119 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Angels have won three straight games and finishing off this series would get them back within striking distance in the American League Wild Card race. The offense has put up 27 runs over this stretch and they can add to it tonight in what is the value play of the night. Seattle has lost 10 of its last 15 games and despite being 19 games over .500, its scoring differential is right at 0. Only the Giants and Tigers have a worse OPS in July than Seattle, and nobody has scored fewer runs this month. This could be considered a contrarian play based on the fact the Angels have lost the last seven games Jaime Barria has pitched but most of that is due to back luck and not bad pitching. In 14 starts, he has a 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, and those numbers are envious of a lot of pitchers throughout the league. The value comes with playing against Felix Hernandez as his glory days are done yet he is still seeing ace moneylines. He has been dreadful on the road with a 6.65 ERA and 1.54 WHIP and the Mariners are 0-7 in his last seven road starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on American League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg and batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starter whose ERA is between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 145-88 (62.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (928) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-27-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals -107 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. St. Louis is back home following a disappointing 3-5 roadtrip including losing three of five in Chicago against the Cubs. The Cardinals are back to .500 on the season but the playoffs are still well within reach as they trail Atlanta by 4.5 games for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The offense has sputtered of late, averaging just 2.5 rpg over their last four games, but on the season the Cardinals are 12-2 against the moneyline after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. The Cubs are coming off an improbable victory as rookie David Bote jacked a two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game against Arizona and then Anthony Rizzo hit a walk off home run two pitches later. Chicago remains 2.5 games ahead of Milwaukee in the National League Central and while it has been playing better on the road, of its 27 road wins, only 13 have been against teams .500 or better. Luke Weaver had a rough month of June where he posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.79 WHIP, but he has rebounded with a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in three July starts. The Cardinals are 10-4 in his last 14 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Cubs counter with Mike Montgomery who has been up and down and while has been strong on the road, only one of five road starts have come against a team at .500 or better. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg and with a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 47-21 (69.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-26-18 | Mets v. Pirates -148 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We played against Pittsburgh yesterday as it lost in Cleveland, snapping its 11-game winning streak but we expect a bounceback tonight in the series opener in this four-game set against the Mets. The Pirates are now seven games behind the Cubs in the National League Central but remain just three games back in the Wild Card race and this is a big series with the next five games coming against the Cubs and Cardinals. The Mets took two of three against San Diego to open the week and while they have held their own on the road, going back they are 14-40 in their last 54 road games against teams with a winning record. On the season, they are 8-22 against National League teams averaging 4.5 or more rpg. Nick Kingham gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he has been successful as a fill in starter. He has tossed three straight quality starts and taking away one poor outing against the Dodgers, he has a 3.00 ERA in his other nine starts. If he gets past the first inning, he is just fine as eight of the 23 earned runs he has allowed and 11 of 49 hits have been in the 1st inning. Steven Matz counters for the Mets and while he has been having a decent season, the spot is not good as New York is 3-13 in his last 13 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game while going 4-17 in his last 21 starts in the second half of the season. 10* (904) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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07-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -106 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Triple Play. We lost with the Cubs last night in what was a surprisingly dominant performance from Clay Buchholz, who allowed a solo home run for his only blemish in 6.2 innings. Chicago has dropped back-to-back games for the first time in a month as it has scored just one run in each of those games and the last time it was held to two runs or less in a two-game span, the Cubs erupted for 13 runs in their next game. They are a perfect 5-0 this season when scoring two runs or less combined in their two previous games, averaging 8.8 rpg. Arizona pulled to within a half-game of the Dodgers in the National League West after its third straight win where it has allowed just one run in each of those three victories. We do expect more of that today as Robbie Ray takes the hill and while he was dominant last season, that has not carried forward. He had a rough start to the season, went on the DL and it has not gotten much better with a 7.65 ERA over his last four starts. The Cubs are hitting .297 at home against left-handed pitching and have won 17 of their last 22 games against southpaw starters. Jon Lester is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed eight earned runs against the Cardinals, double of his previous season high. Even with that, he still has a 3.12 ERA at home and Chicago has gone 8-2 in his 10 home starts while going back, the Cubs have gone 40-14 in his last 54 home starts. Here, we play against National League road underdogs that are allowing four or fewer rpg going up against a team outscoring opponents by one or more rpg. This situation is 99-38 (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Chicago Cubs |
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07-24-18 | Dodgers v. Phillies +103 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 103 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Dodgers took the opening game of this three game series to improve to 3-1 after the break and they remain a game and a half ahead of the Diamondbacks in the National League West. They have an extremely tough matchup tonight however as the Phillies send their ace to the hill in trying to move back into first place in the National League East. Philadelphia is 32-18 at home including wins in six of its last eight and going back, the Phillies are 11-25 in their last 36 games against teams with a winning record. Aaron Nola is making his first start in 10 days, so the extra rest is a bonus. He closed the first half with five straight quality outings and he has been unbeatable at home, literally. He is 8-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in nine starts, all Phillies wins and all being quality performances. Kenta Maeda has been pitching well also but he has not been as efficient on the road with just one quality outing and that came against the Marlins. Here, we play against National League road underdogs that are hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 99-36 (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (904) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-23-18 | Cardinals +118 v. Reds | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. St. Louis lost yesterday to drop its five-game series against the Cubs and needs to get back on track in this winnable series before hosting Chicago at the end of the week. The Cardinals are still over .500 on the road, one of only seven teams in the National League with a winning record on the highway. Going back, the Cardinals are 7-2 in their last nine games following a loss. Cincinnati closed the first half on an 18-8 run, but the break did the Reds no good as they were swept by the Pirates over the weekend. The offense managed only five total runs and the three games represented the first time over their last 14 games they scored fewer that three runs. The Reds are 17-35 in their last 52 home games against teams with a winning road record. Daniel Poncedeleon gets the ball for St. Louis and this will be his big league debut. It will also complete an incredible 14-month comeback from a life-threatening brain injury suffered when he was struck by a line drive in a Triple-A game. He has recovered incredibly as for Memphis this season, he has a 9-3 record, a 2.15 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 92 innings. He won his last four starts, including a one-hitter in his last appearance on July 15, the first complete-game shutout of his five minor league seasons. Luis Castillo counters for the Reds and while he has been dependable, he has been far from dominant as only five of his 20 starts have been quality outings. This includes just one over his last nine starts and in three starts against the Cardinals this season, he has a 5.63 ERA. 10* (953) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-22-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs -140 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. This is the final game of a five-game series between Chicago and St. Louis with each team alternating wins through the first four games. The Cubs bullpen, which is fifth best in baseball, blew a 3-1 lead last night in the second game of a double-header by allowing five runs over the final three innings so we can expect a bounce back today. The Cubs hold a 2.5-game lead over Milwaukee in the National League Central and turn to Jose Quintana in his first starts after the break after posting a pair of quality outings to close the first half. Admittedly, he has struggled at home, but Chicago is 5-2 in his seven starts thanks to 7.3 rpg of support. Miles Mikolas counters for St. Louis and he has had a great season thus far with a 2.79 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 19 starts. He is a perfect 6-0 on the road but his numbers inflate, and this will be his first career start at Wrigley Field. The Cubs fall into a solid situation where we play on National League home teams that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or better. This situation is 160-86 (65 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Chicago Cubs |
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07-21-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +150 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 150 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Saturday Underdog Sweet Spot. This line reflects the past and not the present and is based on name and where the public money is going to go. Last night, the Dodgers took the opener of this series with a 6-4 win over Milwaukee to send the Brewers to their seventh straight loss as the break did them no good to quell their losing streak. Rich Hill had a significant pitching edge over Wade Miley, but the price closed at -132 and tonight the gap decreases yet the price cis significantly higher. Clayton Kershaw has been one of, if not the most dominant pitcher in baseball over the past few years but injuries are starting to catch up as he has been as inconsistent as we have seen. He lost four games in 2016 in 21 starts and lost four games in 2017 in 27 starts but he has already lost four games this season in just 13 starts. He has gone past six innings only once in his last eight starts which dates back to April. Chase Anderson is having a great season as his 3.78 ERA is very solid but that does not tell the full story as he has a 1.17 WHIP and players are hitting just .219 against him and those last two numbers are dominant worthy. While he cannot pitch during the day with his 0-5 record and 4.75 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, he is 6-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 starts under the lights. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-20-18 | Giants v. A's -110 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Oakland closed the first half on a 21-6 run to get back into the playoff picture. While they might not catch Houston in the American League West as they are eight games back, they are just three games behind Seattle in the American League Wild Card. San Francisco is also in the Wild Card mix as it is four games out of the second spot, but the road has been an issue all season. The Giants are 31-19 at home but on the road it is close to a reversal as they are 19-29 and most recently, they have lost 21 of their last 31 road games. It might be a risky proposition betting on journeyman Edwin Jackson, but he has been solid with a 2.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four starts. This includes two great outings against Cleveland and shutting down San Francisco last time out. Dereck Rodriguez has been nearly as good, but he comes in with a poor 1.58 WHIP on the road. Here, we play against National League road underdogs that are hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.50 over his last five starts going up against an American League starting pitcher who has an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 46-10 (82.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (930) Oakland A's |
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07-15-18 | Blue Jays +142 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Boston was able to extract some revenge after getting its 10-game winning streak snapped on Friday as Xander Bogaerts hit a walk-off grand slam in the 10th inning to pull out a 6-2 win. Toronto can even the series today before heading into the break in what has been a very disappointing season. Marcus Stroman has been at the top of that disappointment list, but he has been a lot better since coming off the DL as he has a 3.04 ERA in four starts including three where he allowed one run or less. Brian Johnson will be making his fourth start of the season as he has been activated from the DL and while Boston has gone 8-0 in his last eight starts, the numbers are not on his side here. He has a 5.33 ERA at home while allowing a .313 average against right-handed hitters and the projected Blue Jays lineup shows not a single lefty in it today. 10* (915) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-14-18 | Royals v. White Sox -121 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Kansas City fire-sale is showing the full effects this season as it has fallen to 26-67 which is the second worst record in baseball and its -189 scoring differential is the worst by a wide margin. The Royals lost for the 12th time in their last 13 games as the pitching has been horrible during this stretch, allowing an average of 6.5 rpg. The one is their favor is that they have been better on the road than at home as far as the records go but their 5.20 road ERA is third worst in baseball. The White Sox are another team in transition mode, but they have had more success in the rebuilding tenure and they have been playing much better at home. After a 3-15 start to the season at Guaranteed Rate Field, they have gone 15-12 over their last 27 games here including wins the last two days. Reynaldo Lopez gets the ball for Chicago and he has shown why he is considered one of the top pitching prospects in the organization. He has a 3.77 ERA through 18 starts, 11 of those being quality outings. He has been lit up only twice all season and both of those were on the road and he comes into today with a 2.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in seven home start. The White Sox are 5-2 in his last seven home starts against teams with a losing record. The Royals have had some success this season by going 13-18 against left-handed starters but they are an atrocious 13-49 against right-handed starters. Daddy Duffy has been inconsistent this season as only seven of his 19 starts have been quality performances, two of which were not against the White Sox where he allowed nine runs over 10 innings. 10* (968) Chicago White Sox |
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07-13-18 | Blue Jays +185 v. Red Sox | Top | 13-7 | Win | 185 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. We lost a tough one with the Blue Jays last night as Mookie Betts hit a two-out grand slam in an epic 13-pitch at-bat, leading Boston to its 10th straight victory. The Red Sox retained their 3.5-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East and are guaranteed to have the lead heading into the All Star Break. Boston has the best home winning percentage in baseball so while going against that is a risk, the value on the underdog negates that. Toronto has now lost six straight games against Boston, but it is now catching the biggest number over this stretch and has a capable arm on the hill to pull off the upset. Ryan Borucki has been exceptional since entering the rotation as he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through three starts, all of which have been quality outings. Two of those came against the Yankees and Astros, two of the three highest scoring teams in the league, which makes the start even more impressive. He does not have a win to show for it though as run support has been limited. Rick Porcello counters for the Red Sox and he is having a decent season with a 3.58 ERA in 19 starts. Only eight of 14 starts under the lights have been quality outings and in his last four starts against Toronto, he has a 6.20 ERA. Toronto falls into a solid situation where we play against American League teams that are hitting between .265 to .279 and with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better. This situation is 33-11 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (917) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-12-18 | Brewers +121 v. Pirates | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. The Brewers lost two of three in Miami to start the week, but we expect them to bounce back here and at a nice underdog price. They are 25-20 on the road and remain a game and a half ahead of the Cubs in the National League Central. Pittsburgh took two of three against Washington to even its homestand at 3-3 and while it won yesterday, the Pirates are 4-13 in their last 17 games following a win. Jameson Taillon has put together a solid season thus far with a 4.05 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 18 starts. Only eight of those have been quality outings including just three at home in nine starts. Betting on Wade Miley may be a scary proposition, but this is a good spot. Miley missed the first month of the season with an injured groin and then he put together an impressive start against the Reds, pitching six innings and allowing just one run on three hits and three walks with four strikeouts before leaving his next start with an oblique strain that put him on the DL for two months. He has been solid in his rehab assignments and should continue that here. There has been no indication of him being on a pitch count, but it is fine if he is as the Brewers possess the fifth lowest bullpen ERA in baseball and fits into a positive situation. Here, we play on National League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starter whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 45-15 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (953) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-11-18 | Mariners v. Angels -112 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Angels responded from a three-run first inning by the Mariners to score nine unanswered runs to win this series opener and improve to 3-1 on this current homestand. This is a big series to cut the lead and somehow get back into the Wild Card hunt. The Mariners possess that second Wild Card slot as they have a six-game lead over Oakland and now a 10-game lead over the Angels. Despite being 18 games over .500, Seattle is just +11 in scoring differential which is the lowest positive differential in all of baseball, behind even the Angels which are +20. They are where they are thanks to a 26-11 record in one-run games, easily the best mark in baseball. Marco Gonzales has had a solid season with a 3.64 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 18 starts and the Mariners have won all three of his starts against the Angels but all of those were at home where his ERA is a run and a half better than on the road. Jaime Barria has had an equally strong season with a 3.39 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 starts. He has allowed two runs or less in 10 of those and this is a good spot to end the five-game winless start streak. The Angels fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on home teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are hitting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 30-14 (68.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (924) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -103 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Rockies are back home following a series win in Seattle and they close their first half of the season with a six-game homestand. They trail the Diamondbacks by 3.5 games in the National League West and can close the gap with a big three-game series as they look to find some consistency as home where their 18 wins are second fewest in the National League. Arizona is coming off a 3-7 homestand as its lead in the division has shrunk to a half-game over the Dodgers and this is not a good spot for one of its aces. Patrick Corbin has been solid with a 3.05 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through 18 starts and while he has pitched well on the road with a 2.32 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, this is his first trip to Coors Field where he has a 7.11 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in nine career games. Despite the poor record, the Rockies are hitting .296 at home against left-handed pitching. Tyler Anderson has quietly put together a solid season with a 3.90 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 18 starts and he is going through his best stretch of the season. He has a 2.18 ERA over his last five starts and has allowed no runs in 16 innings over his last two starts. 10* (958) Colorado Rockies |
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07-09-18 | Tigers +195 v. Rays | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Tigers are coming off a 2-2 series split with Texas after getting shut out on Sunday 3-0 as they were held to just four hits. Going back, Detroit is just 4-15 over its last 19 games and while it has seen some big underdog numbers on the road, those were against the Cubs and Indians. Tampa Bay is coming off a pair of shut outs wins over the Mets on Saturday and Sunday which is playing into the number as is the fact Chris Archer is on the hill. He has not been the same dominant pitcher as he has been in the past and this is his first start in five weeks. After spending time on the disabled list. He has a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 13 starts and in five home starts, he has yet to pick up a victory. Francisco Liriano counters for the Tigers and he is coming off a pair of quality starts on the road. He has pitched well on the road with a 3.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in eight starts, six of which have been quality, but he has been unlucky with the offense giving him just 2.8 rpg. Detroit falls into a solid situation where we play against American League favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher that are hitting .260 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA 4.20 or better. This situation is 67-39 (63.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (915) Detroit Tigers |
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07-08-18 | Cardinals v. Giants -121 | Top | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. The Giants lost for the fifth time in their last six games as the offense has completely shut down, scoring three runs or less in all six of those games, averaging just 1.7 rpg over that stretch. This includes scoring a grand total of three runs in three games at Coors Field, but the offense is much better than this and we foresee more production on Sunday. St. Louis has won four of its first six games on this current nine-game roadtrip as it continues to hang around in the National League Wild Card race. The Giants missed Madison Bumgarner for the first couple months of the season as he is showing how important he is to the rotation. He has a 2.58 ERA and 1.12 WHIPO in his first six starts and he has been dealing at home with a 0.86 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in three outings. The Cardinals are 17-38 in their last 55 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 and more recent, they are 3-8 in their last 11 games against left-handed starters. Jack Flaherty opened the season great, but he has stumbled over his last two starts. Despite a 2.86 ERA in six road starts, the Cardinals are just 1-5 in those games as he has received no run support which we expect to again be the case today. 10* (960) San Francisco Giants |
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07-07-18 | Rays -126 v. Mets | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. We won with the Mets last night thanks to a walk off grand slam from Jose Bautista, but we will be going the other way today. The Mets have won two straight games which is only their third winning streak of two games or more since a nine-game winning streak ended Apr. 13. We mentioned yesterday the Tampa Bay road struggles of late, but the blame cannot be put on Blake Snell who has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last five road starts with all five coming against teams ranked No. 12 or better in run scored in all of baseball. Overall, he has a 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 18 starts and he has allowed one run or less in seven of his last eight starts. The Mets have scored the fifth fewest runs in baseball and they are 2-11 in 13 home games against left-handed starters. Steven Matz has been pitching well but not nearly as dominant as Snell. He has been more efficient on the road than at home as he has a 2.25 ERA in eight road starts compared to a 4.57 ERA in eight home starts. He has just one win at home and going back, the Mets are 0-4 in his last four starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Tampa Bay is hitting .261 on the road against left-handed pitching while going 5-1 in its last six games against left-handed starters and their 15 overall wins against southpaws are ninth best in baseball. 10* (925) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-06-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -132 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. San Diego took the opener of this series last night which snapped a three-game losing streak as it has been a rough stretch for the Padres which are 4-13 in their last 17 games overall. Additionally, they are 0-5 in their last five games following a win as the offense has managed just 2.4 rpg on those follow up games. Arizona has had a dreadful homestand, going 1-6 following a solid 7-1 run. The Diamondbacks are now tied with the Dodgers for first place in the National League West and despite the loss yesterday, they are 7-2 in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. Zack Godley gets the ball for Arizona and after great four-game stretch to close June, he was rocked for seven runs against the Giants, which snapped a three-game home quality start streak. Joey Lucchesi is coming off consecutive starts where he allowed no runs but in 12 starts, he has just two quality outings. Here, we play against National League road teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are averaging 3.8 or fewer rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 41-14 (74.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-05-18 | Angels v. Mariners -134 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We lost with Seattle yesterday but are coming back with the Mariners tonight in another great value spot. Seattle had its eight-game winning streak snapped with the loss yesterday and now sits a game and a half behind the Astros in the American League West, but this is a great bounce back situation. The Angels are now just 3-6 on this roadtrip and are 3-8 in their last 11 games overall which includes three losses against left handed starters where they managed a mere four runs total. Going back, the Angels are 1-10 in their last 11 road games against left-handed starters and face off against Marco Gonzales who is having a solid season. He has a 3.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 17 starts and his numbers are better at home where Seattle has gone 6-2 in his eight starts at Safeco Field. Jaime Barria counters for the Angels and he has been dependable but not dominant as just three of his 11 starts have been quality outings. Here, we play against American League teams that are averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starter with an ERA of 3.50 or better. This situation is 120-68 (63.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (916) Seattle Mariners |
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07-04-18 | Angels v. Mariners -105 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Seattle took the series opener and has now won eight straight games. Typically, this would be a no play or a play against based on that however the Mariners are severely underpriced here, so we have to take the value play. They are just a half-game behind Houston in the American League West and have a firm hold of one of the two Wild Card spots. After the win, the Mariners are now 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. The Angels meanwhile are 0-8 in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Garrett Richards has come off the disabled list from a left hamstring strain which helps the Angels rotation, but it is too little, too late for this team which is currently projected at 1.8 percent to make the playoffs. Even prior to his injury, he had been struggling. Even when he has pitched well, he has been victimized by poor run support and the Angels are 1-6 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. Mike Leake has had a career resurgence in Seattle as since coming over from St. Louis last season, he has a 3.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 22 starts. 10* (958) Seattle Mariners |
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07-03-18 | Mets v. Blue Jays -121 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Blue Jays lost yesterday in the series finale against the Tigers which ended up making the four-game set a split and they are in good shape to snap their two-game slide. They have struggled on the road all season but have picked it up at home where the blue Jays have won 10 of their last 13 games. It has been an even worse season for the Mets which are now 22-47 over their last 69 games. New York salvaged a game in Miami on Sunday where it was favored and on the season, it is 7-24 as an underdog of +150 or less. Additionally, the Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Marco Estrada has had a rough season because of a bad April and May but in five starts last month, he put up a 2.35 ERA and 0.98 WHIP which includes three quality starts at home. The Mets hand the ball to Zack Wheeler who is coming off a solid outing, allowing no runs over seven innings. The last time he did that was his first start in June and he followed that up by allowing six runs in his next start. The Mets are 3-13 in his last 16 starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (924) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-02-18 | Twins v. Brewers -135 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. After getting swept against the Cubs, Minnesota is now 10 games under .500 yet somehow sits in second place in the American League Central but this team is all but done. Both the offense and pitching have struggled, and the latter really had problems over the weekend, allowing 35 runs in the three games against Chicago. Milwaukee split its four-game series against the Reds and it heads back home maintaining its lead in the National League Central against the Cubs, but it is down to a half-game, so this is turning into a big series with a four-game set against the Braves looming. Kyle Gibson has been having a great season but has been erratic at times and this is a trough spot with the Twins going 1-6 in his last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game. Brent Suter has been pitching well after a slow start as he has a 3.49 ERA over his last eight starts with the Brewers winning six of those. Milwaukee is 11-2 in his last 13 starts as a favorite of -150 or less. While the Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 games against lefties. 10* (970) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-01-18 | Indians -122 v. A's | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Oakland caught fire at the end of June, winning 12 of its last 14 games including six straight. The pitching has led the way and while the Cleveland offense has been a disappointment, the fact it has been shut down the last two days by Paul Blackburn and Edwin Jackson is surprising. The Indians have lost four of five on this roadtrip but luckily for them, every other team in the division is garbage and they look to salvage a game here behind Mike Clevinger. He is part of the big three in the rotation and he has been the best one on the road with a 2.39 ERA and .197 BAA. The Indians are 6-2 in his last eight starts following a team loss in their previous game. Oakland hands the ball to Frankie Montas who started great but has faltered with a 7.20 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in his last three starts. 10* (923) Cleveland Indians |
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06-30-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -106 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Giants snuck out a win last night to make it eight wins over their last 10 games. They now trail Arizona by 4.5 games in the National League West but despite the run, they have struggled on the road with a 17-26 record on the season including losses in 18 of their last 26. Going back, San Francisco is 3-18 in its last 21 road games against teams with a bullpen that has a WHIP of 1.15 or better. Arizona had its three-game winning streak snapped and it has had a very solid month-long run as it is 21-9 over its last 30 games and over this stretch, it has gone 7-1 following a loss. Additionally, the Diamondbacks are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. We are betting on a pitcher who was rocked in his last start, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings but we are banking on a Shelby Miller rebound here. That was his first start in 14 months following Tommy John surgery, so a rough outing was expected but according to FanGraphs, his fastball averaged 95.6 mph, so he was dealing. Dereck Rodriguez has been pretty solid for the Giants, but he has struggled in two road starts with a 5.68 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Here, we play on National League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are averaging 4.0 to 4.5 rpg and with a bullpen WHIP of 1.25 or better going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 42-13 (76.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-29-18 | Twins v. Cubs -116 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Chicago picked up a much needed win yesterday as it got handcuffed by Clayton Kershaw for five innings before erupting for 10 runs against the Dodgers bullpen. It was a disappointing 2-6 roadtrip for the Cubs as they head home where they are 21-14 on the season and going back, they are 10-3 in their last 13 Interleague home games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota also won yesterday as it avoided the sweep against the White Sox as it won just its 15th road game of the season. The Twins are hitting .228 on the road which is fifth worst in baseball and they are 8-18 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning home record. Mike Montgomery is making just his seventh start since getting back into the rotation after an uneven start in the bullpen. He posted a 5.33 ERA in 18 games as a reliever but has put up a 2.02 ERA in six outings as a starter. The Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters. Jose Berrios has had a good season for Minnesota and has been on a role of late with seven quality outings in his last eight starts. He has not been consistent on the road however as he has a 4.06 ERA and the Twins are 0-7 in his last seven road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (930) Chicago Cubs |
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06-28-18 | A's v. Tigers -102 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. It has been a brutal stretch for the Tigers which were right on the tail of Cleveland but have lost eight straight games to fall nine games behind the Indians in the American League Central. They have lost three straight games to Oakland to open this series but are still three games over .500 at home and they were in each of these recent three games, either being tied or trailing by one run in the ninth inning of each game. Oakland is now five games over .500 but it is still seven games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League, so it is not in a great position despite being on a good run. Oakland sends Sean Manaea to the hill and he is having a great season, but this is not a good spot for him. He has posted a 3.40 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 16 starts, half of which have come on the road where his ERA drops to 3.17 but his WHIP increases to 1.10 with only four of those being quality outings. Detroit has crushed left-handed pitching all season as it is hitting .276 which trails only Atlanta and Houston and this includes a .298 average at home. Detroit has won four straight games at home against left-handed starters while the A's are 5-13 in his last 18 road starts against teams with a losing record. Michael Fulmer has been up and down this season but has pitched great at home and he has been especially efficient during the day with a 2.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine starts. 10* (962) Detroit Tigers |
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