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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-10-17 | Braves +160 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Atlanta lost its fifth straight game last night as Bartolo Colon allowed five runs in the first inning and was unable to catch up. The win for the Astros was their second straight to move to 22-11 which is the second best record in baseball and the recent records have a huge impact in this overpriced line this afternoon as the Braves have a rare advantage in the starting pitching matchup. The Braves starting pitching staff has been one of the worst in baseball in terms of ERA, OBP, SLG, WHIP and several other categories. The lone bright spot has been the pitching of Jaime Garcia whose ERA is 3.99 in five starts compared to 5.18 for the rest of the starters in the other 25 starts. He has tossed three straight quality outings and while Braves starters have just seven wins combined, three belong to Garcia. While Houston is hitting .285 against righties, it is hitting just .239 against lefties. The Astros turn to Joe Musgrove and this is the exact opposite position. Musgrove owns a 5.40 ERA through six starts over 31.2 innings while the rest of the starters have a 3.38 ERA in the other 27 games. 10* (925) Atlanta Braves |
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05-09-17 | Pirates +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
The Pirates were pounded in the opener of this series last night 12-1 as they allowed six first inning runs and never recovered. They fell to four games under .500 overall as the offense continues to struggle but tonight could be the spot to bounce back. Pittsburgh is 6-3 this season following consecutive losses. The Dodgers have won three straight games, scoring 30 runs in the process and look to finally be playing like the team many expected combing into the season. They still have not been great at the money window because of the big prices and that is certainly the case tonight. Ivan Nova has gotten off to a great start this season as he has a 2.14 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through six starts. His last outing was his worst but it was not even that bad as he allowed four runs in six innings. This came after opening the season with five straight quality outings. He will be opposed by Julio Urias who is making his third start of the season. He started the season in AAA to keep his workload down and while his overall ERA has been solid in both places, he has walked a total of 17 batters through 24.2 innings and that is not good at all. Going back, the Dodgers are 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (957) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-09-17 | Indians v. Blue Jays +158 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
The Blue Jays extracted a little revenge last night against Cleveland as they won the series opener, the first meeting since the Indians defeated Toronto in the American League Championship Series last fall. They got a strong pitching performance from Marcus Stroman and are hoping for another tonight from an unlikely source. Cleveland fell to 3-4 on this current roadtrip and the offense has been unable to do anything which helps the Blue Jays cause tonight. The Indians have scored three runs or less in all seven games, averaging just 1.9 rpg over this stretch. Toronto hands the ball to Mike Bolsinger who is the ninth pitcher to make a start this season after Toronto used just seven all of last season. He is making his first appearance with the Blue Jays after coming over from the Dodgers and starting the season in the Minors. He saw limited action last season but had a very strong 2015 season so he is more than capable of producing. The Indians turn to Carlos Carrasco who is riding a five-game quality start performance and his overall numbers have been outstanding. And he is paying the price for it. The Indians are averaging just 3.0 rpg in his six starts while the Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last four home games against right-handed starters. 10* (960) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-08-17 | Giants +144 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
The Giants were swept in Cincinnati over the weekend while getting outscored 31-5 and now sit at 11-21 which is the worst record in baseball. It is no doubt a shocking start for a team expecting to contend in the National League but there is still time and the linesmakers are finally catching up. The Giants are 4-0 in their last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Mets won their series against the Marlins but did lose on Sunday as they were shutout. Citi Field has not exactly been kind as they are just 6-11 at home and they are 0-7 in their last seven home games against team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Matt Moore has some pretty ugly numbers at first glance so backing him may not seem like a smart move but there are reasons behind it. His first six starts came against the Dodgers, Rockies and Diamondbacks twice each and those are three very potent offenses. Now he faces one of the worst as the Mets are hitting .227 which is fourth worst in baseball and includes batting just .222 against lefties. They are 1-4 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Jacob deGrom goes for New York and after a great start to the season, he got shellacked in Atlanta last time out and his control remains a big issue. 10* (903) San Francisco Giants |
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05-08-17 | Royals +132 v. Rays | Top | 7-3 | Win | 132 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Kansas City is coming off a rough homestand where it went 3-9 against the Twins, White Sox and Indians. Like the Giants, the Royals are off to a surprisingly poor start as their 10-20 record is the worst record in the American League. While they are off a poor home stretch, they have been bad on the road with just two wins but we are obviously getting a good number now because of that. Tampa Bay is back to a game under .500 following a Sunday loss to Toronto and it fell to 2-3 on this current homestand. The Rays have been generally solid at home but still are not that good where they should be favored by this much. Tampa Bay is 1-5 in its last six games when its opponent scores two runs or less in its previous game. Nathan Karns gets the ball for the Royals and while he has been up and down, he has mostly been on the up side. He is one out away from posting three quality outings in his five overall starts and his last one was the best as he allowed no runs on just one hit in six innings against the White Sox. Blake Snell counters for Tampa Bay and he has been decent but far from dominating. He has allowed more than three runs only once in six starts but has gone more than five innings only once. In three home starts, he possesses a 4.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and is favored by the second highest amount in 25 career starts. 10* (911) Kansas City Royals |
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05-06-17 | White Sox +196 v. Orioles | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Baltimore won the opener of this series last night to post its second straight win but after a hot mid-April run, the Orioles are just 6-6 over their last 12 games. We go against them tonight in a classic contrarian spot where we are getting exceptional value on the White Sox. Chicago dropped to 4-4 on this current roadtrip but is still a game over .500 on the highway and the pitching remains the strength. The White Sox are 8-4 following a loss this season while going 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Dylan Covey gets the ball for Chicago and while his numbers do not look very good, he has actually been better than what shows. He has been hurt by getting behind the count in some instances which has allowed opposing hitters to tee off to the tune of five home runs in two games. His other two games were very strong where he allowed three runs total over 9.1 innings. Dylan Bundy is the reason for this huge line as he is off to a sensational start with a 1.82 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over six starts, all of which have been quality outings. This is not going to last forever and we can take advantage of that here in what is by far his biggest moneyline favorite price of the season. 10* (921) Chicago White Sox |
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05-06-17 | Brewers +147 v. Pirates | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Because of a lengthy rain delay, the Brewers and Pirates played deep into the night with Pittsburgh prevailing thanks to five pitchers not allowing a run. That snapped a two-game slide for the Pirates but they are still three games under .500 for the season. Going back, the Pirates are 3-10 in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Milwaukee fell back to .500 with the defeat and the offense was shutout for the first time this season. The loss also snapped a five-game road winning streak against teams with a winning record as they have been solid on the road this season with an 8-5 record. Matt Garza gets the ball for Milwaukee and he is off to a solid start to the season. He allowed four runs in his season opener but only one of those was earned and he followed that up with a quality outing. Overall, he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and he has been changing his pitching repertoire which hurt him in the spring but has paid off now. Pittsburgh counters with Gerrit Cole who has thrown five straight quality outings after getting pounded in his season opener. He has just one win though as the offense has given him only 2.8 rpg of support. The Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (903) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-05-17 | Nationals v. Phillies +158 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
The Nationals hit the road after a 3-3 homestand and while they have the best road record in baseball, the one series loss on the season came here in Philadelphia. The Phillies are coming off a rough roadtrip where they went just 1-6 with five of those losses coming by two runs or less including three one-run losses. They head home riding a five-game winning streak at Citizens Bank Park and catch a great number in this spot. Philadelphia gives the ball to Nick Pivetta who made his Major League debut this past Sunday and it was a pretty solid effort. He registered a 3.27 ERA in 148.2 innings between Double A and Triple A last season, while striking out 138 and walking 51. His control continued to improve this season as he got off to a 3-0 start at Triple A. He pitched 19 innings, gave up just two earned runs, walked just two and struck out 24. Now he makes his home debut which is a good situation based on the fact his first game came on the road. Stephen Strasburg is off to a great start this season with a 3.09 ERA through five starts and he has been very consistent by going seven innings in all of those starts. The Nationals are just 3-2 in those games however as they have given Strasburg only 3.2 rpg of support including three runs in two games against the Phillies this season. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-04-17 | Phillies +196 v. Cubs | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Phillies last night as Jerad Eickhoff was cruising along but hit a snag in the sixth inning and Philadelphia eventually lost 5-4. The Phillies are two games under .500 now as the loss was their seventh one-run loss of the season which is tied for most in baseball with the Giants and Blue Jays. Chicago has won two straight games and has a 1.5-game lead over the Cardinals and Brewers in the National League Central. Despite the win last night, the Cubs are just 1-4 in their last five home games against teams with a losing record. Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Phillies and he has gotten off to a solid start to the season with a 1.89 ERA and 0.68 WHIP through his first three starts. He posted a 5.54 ERA in 11 starts with the Phillies last season but he went through double knee surgeries last fall to relieve chronic knee pain and the former first round pick is pitching like the top prospect he was. John Lackey got off to a solid start with a pair of quality outings but he has had some struggles of late as he has posted a 6.50 ERA over his last three starts, none of which have been quality outings. He has been killed by the long ball as he has given up six home runs over these last three starts. Additionally, opponents are batting nearly .300 against him and his FIP is not exactly awe-inspiring, either, coming in at an unsightly 4.93. 10* (905) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-03-17 | Rangers +167 v. Astros | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
It was a tough loss for the Rangers last night as they allowed five runs in the eighth inning including a grand slam by Marwin Gonzalez which sent them to their third straight loss. Texas has dropped three straight on two other occasions this season and came back both times to avoid four straight losses and they are in a great situation to do it again here. The Astros recorded their 12th comeback victory on Tuesday night which is a mixture of clutch play with some luck involved as well. Houston is laying a huge number tonight and it is not with one of its top starters as Charlie Morton brings in a 4.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in five starts. He is coming off a game where he struck out a career high 12 hitters against Oakland but we can call that a fluke as he had not struck out more than seven since 2014. Nick Martinez will be making his third start of the season and his first two have been solid with a 2.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 10:1 K:BB over 13 innings. He went back and forth between starting and relieving last season and that is tough for a pitcher to go through. A change in his pitches has helped him out as he ditched his slider, a pitch he threw 21.9 percent of the time in 2016, and added a cutter, which accounted for 25.3 percent of his pitches in April. He is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA in seven career games (four starts) against Houston and he has allowed three runs or less in 35 of 52 career starts. 10* (975) Texas Rangers |
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05-03-17 | Phillies +184 v. Cubs | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
After erupting for 10 runs on Monday, the Phillies offense got handcuffed last night as they managed just four hits against Jon Lester and got nothing in four innings against the Cubs bullpen. The loss dropped the Phillies to 12-13 on the season which is certainly pretty respectable after finishing 20 games under .500 last season. The Cubs are just 14-12 on the season but are still laying massive moneylines as is the case tonight with all of that based on reputation and expectation. Jake Arrieta gets the ball for Chicago and while he is 3-1, things are not right as he has a 4.66 ERA through five starts which includes a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts. He has allowed six home runs after allowing a total of 16 all of last season so that has been a big part of the problem. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. We played on Jerad Eickhoff in his last start against the Dodgers and he struggled for the first time this season, allowing a season high nine hits and five runs while striking out a season low three batters. He came into that game with a 2.55 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and we can expect to see a bounce back effort tonight. He is a very solid arm in this rotation as he was 11-14 in his first full season in 2016 with a 3.65 ERA, 42 walks, and 167 strikeouts. In the second half last year, he walked only 13 in 88.1 innings and he has now allowed three runs or less in 38 of his 46 career starts. 10* (957) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-02-17 | A's +127 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Oakland remains on the road and this roadtrip has not gotten off to a good start as it is 1-5 through its first six games but gets a boost tonight in the starting rotation to get things turned around. The A's finally get a break as they have played a very tough schedule to open the season as 22 of 25 games have come against the American League West. Minnesota had a solid roadtrip as it went 4-1 with a series win at Texas and a two-game sweep at Kansas City. The Twins are just 1-6 in their last seven home games however so a return back to Minnesota is something may not want. Oakland sends Sonny Gray to the hill for the first time this season and it hopes its ace is back to form. He threw five one-hit innings for Class A Stockton a week ago Saturday, then came back Thursday with six two-hit innings in Nashville on Thursday. In both cases he was able to hit 94 mph on the radar gun and throw all of his pitches without feeling any discomfort in his shoulder or forearm. Minnesota counters with Ervin Santana who is pitching way over his head and going contrarian is the way to go here. He has allowed one run or less in all five starts but going back, the Twins are 7-16 in his last 23 starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (923) Oakland A's |
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05-02-17 | Blue Jays +184 v. Yankees | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
We won with Toronto yesterday and will come back with the Blue Jays on Tuesday as they are once again catching an overinflated Yankees number. As mentioned yesterday, Toronto finally came into a series coming off a win after losing seven straight series closers prior to that and riding a three-game winning streak will keep that momentum going. The Yankees have dropped two straight games and the pitching has been a real issue during this homestand as they have allowed an average of 7.3 rpg. They are hoping Masahiro Tanaka can stop the bleeding and he is on a roll right now, part of the reason this line is as high as it is. He is coming off a three-hit shutout against the Red Sox which was his third straight quality start after a pair of rough outings to open the season. He has a 4.20 ERA and 1.27 WHIP overall and the Blue Jays catch him at the right time coming off that gem while they are 7-3 in their last 10 games against right-handed starters. Toronto counters with Mat Latos whose best days are behind him but he does provide a quality arm that can still put up solid numbers. He shut out the Cardinals in his last start in St. Louis over six innings. 10* (961) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-01-17 | Rangers +185 v. Astros | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Houston took two of three games against Oakland over the weekend to improve to 16-9 on the season and retain its three-game lead in the American League West. The Astros are now 9-5 at home and are now laying their biggest number of the season which does not make a whole lot of sense in this spot. They have had their issues with Texas over the last couple years, going just 10-28 in the last two season series. Texas went 6-4 on its most recent homestand but did lose its last two series against the Twins and Angels so we are catching a bigger number with a lot of its based on that. This team is better than the record shows and while the Astros are laying their biggest number of the season, the Rangers are the biggest underdog they have been all season. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last four games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. They send Andrew Cashner to the hill and he has been pretty solid with a 2.93 ERA through his first three starts. His control has been an issue but he has not been getting hurt thanks to a solid ground ball/fly ball ratio. Lance McCullers counters for Houston and he has been inconsistent with two solid starts and two blowups. While the two good starts came at home, they came against pedestrian offenses and Texas is fifth in the A.L. in runs and McCullers has an 8.03 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three career starts against Texas. 10* (967) Texas Rangers |
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05-01-17 | Blue Jays +159 v. Yankees | Top | 7-1 | Win | 159 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Toronto picked up a much needed win yesterday as it scored three runs in the eighth inning against Tampa Bay to win its first series of the season. The Blue Jays have gotten off to a very rough start this season but they can finally carry some momentum into a new series as they went into their previous seven series coming off a loss in all of them. The Yankees lost to the Orioles on Sunday which snapped a four-game winning streak and pulled them back into a tie with Baltimore in the American League East. While the season may still be young, this is a massive series for Toronto, which sits eight games back. Marco Estrada gets the ball for Toronto and he is off to another solid start with a 2.70 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through five starts but still does not have a win to show for it. Since coming over from Milwaukee, he has been as consistent as they come as he has a 3.26 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 68 starts. Luis Severino goes for the Yankees and he is off to a surprisingly solid start as well after a rough 2016 season where he posted a 5.83 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 11 starts and 11 relief appearances. He tweaked some things in the offseason so an improvement is not a huge surprise but keeping this pace up is unlikely. He is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 18.1 innings against Toronto. 10* (961) Toronto Blue Jays |
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04-30-17 | Phillies +183 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
The Phillies lost a heartbreaker last night in Los Angeles as they took a 5-2 lead into the ninth inning but closer Hector Neris gave up back-to-back-to-back home runs and was pulled after allowing another hit before Joely Rodriguez gave up a pair of hits to complete the meltdown. It was the second straight loss for Philadelphia following a six-game winning streak and we will back them here in a good bounce back spot. The Dodgers have won three straight games to claw back over .500 on the season for the first time since April 16. They continue to be overpriced because of expectations and not because of reality. Philadelphia gives the ball to Nick Pivetta who is making his Major League debut today. He registered a 3.27 ERA in 148.2 innings between Double A and Triple A last season, while striking out 138 and walking 51. His control continued to improve this season as he got off to a 3-0 start at Triple A. He pitched 19 innings, gave up just two earned runs, walked just two and struck out 24. Additionally, Pivetta pitched for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic in March. He made one start and took a no-decision in the team's 4-1 loss to Columbia. The Dodgers go with Hyun-Jin Ryu who vis finally coming off a good start but still has nothing to show for it. He is 0-4 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.36 WHIP as he just does not look right. It does not help that the Dodgers have averaged just 1.25 rpg in his four starts. 10* (911) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-30-17 | Reds +155 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 155 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
The Cardinals are a very popular pick today, owning the second highest public consensus on the baseball card but we will be going against this public play today. This game was rained out yesterday which is a big edge for the Reds as they have been atrocious on the mound, allowing 36 runs over their four-game losing streak with the bullpen logging nearly as many innings as the starters so an extra day of rest is huge. St. Louis is on a three-game winning streak and going back further, it is 9-2 over its last 11 games so it is playing excellent baseball right now. Stats wise, there is not a huge discrepancy between these two teams and the line is based on the starting pitching matchup. Bronson Arroyo has some pretty bad looking numbers but he has gotten better as each start has gone on and he is coming off his best start of the season, limiting the Cubs to two runs on three hits in six innings. His 1.24 overall WHIP shows he has been pitching better than his ERA indicates. The Cardinals turn to Mike Leake who has tossed four quality starts and he will be popular to throw another one today. He has not enjoyed success against his former team however as he has a 5.64 ERA in five starts with St. Louis going 0-5. The Reds are 6-3 this season as underdogs between +125 and +175 and while the Cardinals are 3-2 as favorites of -150 or more, underdog bettors know that despite that being 60 percent, they have lost money in the process. 10* (905) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-29-17 | A's +142 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 142 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Houston took the opener of this series last night to retain its three-game lead in the American League West while improving to 8-4 at home. The Astros are just 3-3 over their last six games however and while they have dominated this series with 10 straight wins, going contrarian here is the play with Oakland having a strong pitching advantage with a solid underdog price. Andrew Triggs has been a great addition to the starting rotation after being designated as a middle reliever coming into the season. He didn't allow a run through his first three starts but allowed six over 4.2 innings in his last outing against the Mariners. Overall, he has a 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts and we can expect a bounceback effort on Saturday. Joe Musgrove counters for the Astros and he has gotten off to a rough start. He has yet to post a quality outing through four starts while putting up a 5.91 ERA and 1.45 WHIP which includes a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in two home starts, both Astros losses. The up and down Oakland offense has a great opportunity to bust out here and put a halt to its five-game losing skid. 10* (975) Oakland A's |
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04-29-17 | Orioles +160 v. Yankees | Top | 4-12 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
The Yankees completed a huge comeback on Friday as they trailed 11-7 going into the bottom half of the seventh inning but eventually tied it up and won in 11 innings on a three-run walkoff home run from Matt Holiday. They have now won three straight games but are overvalued today. The Orioles fell into a first place tie in the American League East with the loss but are still a decent 6-4 on the road and they won their only game this season as an underdog of +125 or more and it happened to come with Ubaldo Jimenez on the hill. Jimenez struggled in his last start as he went only 3.1 innings as he was hurt by issuing five walks but he did allow only three hits against Tampa Bay. He has been solid on the road with a 3.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in two starts covering 12 innings. The Yankees turn to Michael Pineda who is off to a solid start with a 3.86 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts but only two of those have been quality outings. He has been fortunate to get a ton of run support and in 12 career starts against Baltimore, he possesses a pedestrian 4.12 ERA. 10* (965) Baltimore Orioles |
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04-28-17 | Phillies +175 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The Phillies have put together a run of six straight victories to move into second place into second place in the National League East and they are clearly one of the top early baseball surprises. The pitching has been outstanding over this stretch, allowing just 3.0 rpg and we should see that continue tonight. The Dodgers are on the other side of the surprise spectrum as they are just 11-12 on the season as they have been unable to put together any sort of run, going 2-8 following a victory. They won at San Francisco yesterday so that trend is again in jeopardy tonight. Jerad Eickhoff takes the ball for Philadelphia and while he is winless, he is off to a solid start with a 2.55 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in four starts. This is no fluke as he was 11-14 in his first full season in 2016 with a 3.65 ERA, 42 walks, and 167 strikeouts. In the second half last year, he walked only 13 in 88.1 innings and he has now allowed three runs or less in 12 straight games and 38 of his 45 career starts. The Dodgers turn to Kenta Maeda who has really struggled as he has an 8.05 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over four starts and has not gone past five innings. While his 2016 season was solid, he failed to get past five innings in his last seven starts. His fly-ball rate is up to 53.4 percent this season after sitting at 35.7 percent last year so clearly something is wrong and he should not be priced this high. 10* (911) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-28-17 | Rockies +145 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 145 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
First place in the National League West is on the line this weekend as Colorado and Arizona meet for the first time this season. The Diamondbacks took three of four from the Padres to move to 5-2 on their current homestand that included a series win over the Dodgers. They are 11-3 at home which is the best home record in baseball but they are now paying for that and after facing one of the worst offenses in MLB, they now face one of the best. The Rockies were rolling along at 14-6 including a 7-1 run but then the Washington bats tore them apart by putting up 42 runs over the last three games, all losses. Coors Field surely played a part in that as did the bullpen so Colorado could use a long effort from Kyle Freeland tonight. He has been solid in his rookie season and has only had one bad outing in his first four starts, posting a 3.32 ERA which includes two quality outings, both taking place in hitter friendly Coors Field. While his is also another hitter friendly park, he is a ground ball pitcher. Freeland drew 12 ground balls on Sunday and is fourth in the majors in ground ball outs among all pitchers. Arizona counters with Robbie Ray who has been solid as well but his two best starts came on the road in pitcher friendly parks. In two home starts, he has a 6.55 ERA with a very bad 2.40 GB:FB rate. Additionally, he posted an 8.50 ERA in four starts against Colorado last season. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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04-27-17 | Toronto Blue Jays - Game #2 +154 v. St. Louis Cardinals - Game #2 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The Blue Jays and Cardinals were rained out last night so they will be playing a day-night doubleheader and this is a play on Game Two. Toronto won the opener of this series on Tuesday and it has been playing a little better since a horrific start to the season as it is 4-3 over its last seven games as it has been dealing with a ton of injuries. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five Interleague road games. The Cardinals are nothing special this season with a 9-11 record but are laying an overly big number and one that is simply too big. St. Louis is just 5-5 at home and going back, the Cardinals are 1-10 in their last 11 Interleague home games. Adam Wainwright is a big reason why this line is so big and while we played against him and lost in his last start, he was not particularly well and escaped because of his own bat where he hit a home run and drove in four runs. Overall, he has a 6.27 ERA and 1.93 WHIP and has yet to toss a quality outing in four starts. Casey Lawrence is not going to impress anyone with his numbers either but after a pair of poor relief outings, his first big league start was pretty good. Lawrence finished his first career start having allowed five runs, four earned, on eight hits and three walks with four strikeouts over 6.1 innings. Toronto is tied with San Francisco with a 3-7 record in one-run games so both of those teams are arguably a lot better than their record shows. 10* (971) Toronto Blue Jays (Game Two) |
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04-26-17 | Mariners v. Tigers +124 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
The Tigers offense exploded for 19 runs last night and while we will not see the same output tonight, the offense is off to a great start this season. They have gotten off to a 6-2 start at home which has kept them in the lead in the American League Central by a game over Chicago and Cleveland. Seattle continues to struggle on the road as it fell to 2-10 on the highway as the bats and the pitching have both been atrocious. James Paxton has been a bright spot in the rotation, up until his last game that is. He opened the season with three starts of not allowing a run but in his last game, he allowed five runs in 4.1 innings against Oakland which was not surprisingly on the road. The Tigers have won four straight home games against left-handed starters while the Mariners are 4-12 in Paxton's last 16 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Detroit counters with Daniel Norris who is also off to a solid start and is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings at Tampa Bay. He posted a quality outing in his lone home start this season against the Red Sox and he has been sensational with a 3.21 ERA in 13 starts since the All Star Break last season. The Tigers are 5-0 in his last five starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (922) Detroit Tigers |
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04-26-17 | Rays +136 v. Orioles | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Tampa Bay snapped a two-game slide with a 2-0 victory last night while also picking up just its second road win of the season. The Rays moved back to .500 overall and look to keep the stellar pitching going as their 3.71 ERA is ranked No. 7 in the league. Baltimore is off to a very hot start and we will be going against the Orioles in a contrarian play here and starting pitcher Dylan Bundy. Bundy has an ERA of 1.37 that leads everyone that has made at least one start for the Orioles this season, and his 4.1 percent walk rate is more than half the league average. His stinginess with the free passes has kept his FIP down at just 1.84, again leading the Orioles staff by a considerable margin. It is time to go against here though as in two starts against the Rays, he has an 8.10 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Alex Cobb goes for Tampa Bay and he has not been very sharp with a 4.88 ERA in four starts. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Houston Astros have been offensive juggernauts recently, and they offer a tough match-up for any pitcher but it is a concern as he has not been the same since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Still, he has a ton of upside and faces a struggling Orioles offense that is hitting just .232, fourth lowest in the American League. 10* (917) Tampa Bay Rays |
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04-25-17 | Cubs v. Pirates +130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
We won with this pitching matchup a just over a week ago and we will go with it again here. The Cubs bats exploded last night with 14 runs but the matchup is a lot tougher tonight. Despite allowing a pair of double-digit run total of their last three games, the Pirates have allowed three runs or less seven times in their last 10 games. After a very rough outing to open the season against the Red Sox, Gerrit Cole rebounded nicely in his second start against the Braves, allowing three runs in three innings although he was unable to pick up the victory. He has since posted two more quality outings against the Cubs and Cardinals. Cole has succeeded against them his entire career. He is 9-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 career starts. Kyle Hendricks counters for Chicago and after a sensational 2016 season, he has had a rough time of its this year. He has a 6.19 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through three starts, none of which have been quality outings. He had three solid starts against the Pirates last season but things are not right. His fastball velocity has continued to drop, hovering around 84 his last two starts, down from 88 last season. During the first outing against the Pirates, his fastball averaged at 84.97. 10* (954) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-24-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 140 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Both the Dodgers and Giants are off to rough starts as they meet for the first time this season. San Francisco split in Kansas City on Tuesday and Wednesday before getting swept in Colorado over the weekend to fall to 3-9 on the road. The Giants are 3-4 at home including a pair of one-run losses and they look to get their slumping offense back on track. Los Angeles salvaged a game in Arizona on Sunday to avoid the sweep and it is just 3-6 on the road. The pitching has struggled especially with a 5.21 ERA from the starters and 4.97 ERA from the relievers. The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six games following a win and they send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the hill. He is off to a poor start following some nearly non-existent seasons because of shoulder injuries. He appeared in only one major league game the last two seasons and while he earned a spot in the rotation this year, he has a 5.87 ERA and .50 WHIP through three starts. The Giants are 37-18 in their last 55 home games against left-handed starters and they turn to Matt Cain who is pitching well following a bad 2016. He has allowed just two earned runs over his last two starts covering 12 innings and in his lone start against Los Angeles last season resulted in a quality outing. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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04-21-17 | Indians v. White Sox +147 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Indians are coming off a road sweep in Minnesota which ended a 1-4 slide and put Cleveland back over .500 for the season. They have been solid on the road but are now favored by the largest amount they have been all season and that is of course based on the starting pitching although it is still too aggressive from what we have seen. The White Sox lost of three in New York against the Yankees but is coming off a successful 5-4 roadtrip. Chicago is right at .500 and while it has been unable to get any big run going, it is 5-1 this season following a loss. Corey Kluber and Jose Quintana have gotten off to similar starts and neither have been good. Kluber has a 6.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through three starts, two of which have been blowups. He is a better pitcher than this but has been hurt by the long ball and he has been up and down in his career against the White Sox. Quintana has a 6.75 ERA in his first three starts and while he has given up 13 earned runs over 17.1 innings, 10 of those have come via a pair of five-run frames against the Tigers and Twins. Quintana is 7-3 with a 2.53 ERA in his career against the Indians while tossing nine straight quality starts, posting a 1.75 ERA over that stretch. The Indians are 0-4 in their last four games against left-handed starters. 10* (972) Chicago White Sox |
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04-21-17 | Royals +143 v. Rangers | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The Royals lost a tough one in the opener of this series as they went 13 innings without scoring in a 1-0 loss to fall back under .500 for the season. It was the fourth straight game that they were held to two runs or less and they have managed just four runs total over that stretch. The pitching has kept them afloat as over the last seven games, Kansas City has given up just seven runs. Texas has also struggled with the offense with just four runs over its last three games and the Rangers possess an overall worse average than the Royals while their pitching is not nearly as strong. Cole Hamels has been decent with a 3.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP but he is not the dominant pitcher he used to be and his 11:7 K:BB ratio is a concern. He is still priced high like an elite starter however despite the Rangers going 0-3 through his first three outings. The Royals are 4-1 in their last five road games against left-handed starters. Nathan Karns gets the ball for Kansas City and while his numbers look awful, they are skewed. He opened the season by allowing four runs in .2 innings in a relief appearance but has allowed just two runs in 11.2 innings in two starts since then. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last eight home games against right-handed starters. 10* (969) Kansas City Royals |
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04-20-17 | Nationals v. Braves +169 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
After winning their first four games in their new stadium against the Padres, the Braves have lost their last two games and will be out to avoid a sweep against Washington tonight. The pitching allowed 14 runs last night after allowing a total of 13 runs in their previous five games. Washington has now won three straight games to move to 9-5 overall but going back, the Nationals are 1-5 in their last six road games against teams with a losing record. Stephen Strasburg has gotten off to a solid start this season with three quality outings in three starts but the best two came at home which has been the case throughout his career. While his road numbers are far from horrible, they are considerably worse than his home numbers. Of all teams has faced at least eight times, his ERA and WHIP are the highest against Atlanta. R.A. Dickey counters for Atlanta and he bounced back after a poor outing in his Braves debut as he tossed a quality start against the Padres. This will be just the second time that this Washington lineup has seen Dickey which is a big edge for a knuckleball pitcher. He allowed two runs in in six innings in his start against the Nationals in 2015. 10* (902) Atlanta Braves |
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04-20-17 | Angels +156 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
The Angels snapped a six-game losing streak with a 5-2 win over Houston on Tuesday but failed to capitalize on that as they lost yesterday as the offense was shut down by Dallas Keuchel. Los Angeles has struggled with the bats since the start of the previous losing skid but has a chance to break out today. The Astros meanwhile are now on a 6-1 run and improved to 6-4 at home but going back to last season, they are 5-12 in their last 17 games during Game Four of a series. Matt Shoemaker gets the ball for the Angels and he has gotten off to an average start which is mainly due to one bad outing against the Mariners. He may have likely been rattled that game since it came against the same team that ended his season a year ago after getting hit in the head with a line drive that required emergency brain surgery. He has faced the Astros seven times with six of those resulting in quality outings including four last season that resulted in a 2.22 ERA. Lance McCullers goes for the Astros and he is coming off a rough outing against Oakland where he allowed five runs in just 4.1 innings and while he has been solid against the Angels in his career, Houston is just 3-3 in his six starts. 10* (917) Los Angeles Angels |
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04-19-17 | Giants v. Royals +129 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 129 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Royals has a four-game winning streak snapped last night with a 2-1 loss to the Giants as the offense got handcuffed against Matt Cain. The pitching remains the strength however as Kansas City has allowed two runs or less in its last five games while the bullpen has not allowed an earned run over this stretch. San Francisco snapped a two-game slide with the win but is still just 6-9 on the season and has been unable to put together any sort of run, going 1-4 in its five games following a victory. Madison Bumgarner has pitched well enough to win but has been unable to do so as the Giants are 0-3 in his first three starts. He has tossed three quality outings in those starts but he has a 3.43 ERA which is pretty average and would be his highest ERA ever. He is still a dominant pitcher when in typical form but we have not really seen it yet this season. Jason Vargas counters for the Royals and he has been dominant with a 0.66 ERA through his first two outings. Many will call this a fluke but he has been solid since coming to Kansas City and he could be even stronger now that he is over six months recovered from Tommy John surgery. He has a 3.52 ERA in 44 starts covering over 255 innings with the Royals. 10* (980) Kansas City Royals |
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04-19-17 | White Sox +192 v. Yankees | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
The White Sox won for us last night and we are backing them again at a price that is once again overadjusted for the wrong reasons. Chicago has now won five of its last seven games on this roadtrip and will be out to end it with another victory tonight. New York had an eight-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and this is a team that was playing over its head but is still laying an elite team moneyline. Masahiro Tanaka gets the ball for the Yankees and while he is coming off a quality start in his last outing, it was far from dominant and something is not right. He has allowed 13 earned runs in 14 innings so far, the bulk of which came in a disastrous Opening Day start at the Rays but allowing six runs on 11 hits and six walks in his last two starts is far from strong. He does not lose often at home but the spot and number are not good here. The White Sox have held opponents to two runs or fewer seven times this season and to six hits or fewer seven times. Dylan Covey is responsible for some of that as in his major league debut Friday at Minnesota, he allowed one run and five hits in 5.1 innings. That confidence moves forward. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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04-18-17 | Phillies +155 v. Mets | Top | 6-2 | Win | 155 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
After starting the season 3-3, the Phillies have dropped five of their last six games but they have been competitive during this rough stretch as four of those losses have been by five runs combined. We played on them Sunday and they were one out away from a +158 payout but Joaquin Benoit allowed a three-run walkoff home run to Bryce Harper. Despite a 4-8 record, Philadelphia is just -3 in run differential and it is in a good spot tonight to bounce back. The Mets are 7-6 and losers of three straight games and while the pitching has been decent albeit unspectacular, the offense has been horrid as they are hitting just .223 which is fifth worst in baseball. The Phillies lost Clay Buchholz to a tear in his pitching forearm but it may not be the worst loss with his 12.27 ERA and he will be replaced by Zach Eflin who was called up after two impressive Minor League starts where allowed no runs over 10 innings in two starts. He finished last season with a 5.54 ERA in 11 starts, taking his worst licks at the beginning and at the end but he had two complete games in-between including a three-hit shutout so he has great potential. Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Mets and he has been below average in two starts with a 7.45 ERA and is totally overpriced here. 10* (903) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-18-17 | White Sox +166 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 166 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
We lost with the White Sox last night despite outhitting the Yankees 11-10 but we will come back with them tonight as the New York price continues to rise. The Yankees are in the midst of their longest winning streak since 2012 and are off to their best start at home in nine years so the linesmakers have no choice but to adjust the price and they are favored now by the most they have been all season. Luis Severino is coming off arguably his best start as a Yankee as he scattered five hits in seven innings while allowing two runs and striking out a career high 11 batters. Despite that effort, he has no business laying a number like this as his first start this season was below average and last season, he closed the season in the bullpen after struggling mightily in the starting rotation, posting a 10.21 ERA in 11 starts. Miguel Gonzalez counters for the White Sox and after opening the season with a quality outing, his second effort was not as good as he allowed three runs in 4.2 innings at Cleveland. He was very solid in his first year in Chicago with a 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 213 starts as he allowed three runs or less in 19 of those. He was the most profitable pitcher last season in terms of units thanks to going 7-3 as an underdog of +150 or higher. 10* (913) Chicago White Sox |
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04-17-17 | Padres +150 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The Padres will be out to avoid the sweep on Monday as they have dropped the first three games of this series to fall to 5-8 coverall. The offense has been non-existent as San Diego has managed only two runs in each of the first three games but this is a good opportunity to get the bats going before heading back home. The Braves have now won four straight games which came after a five-game losing streak but this line is unjustified as this is still a team in rebuilding mode and should not be favored by a number this big. Jered Weaver is making his third start and it has not been all that bad. In his first start, he allowed four runs on five hits in five innings. Two of those hits came from Yasiel Puig and unfortunately for Weaver, both were two-run home runs which accounted for 40 percent of the hits allowed and all four runs so the outing was not really as bad at first glance with the exception of two bad pitches. He is coming off a quality outing in his last start, allowing just two runs on three hits in six innings. Those were against the Dodgers and Rockies so he takes a big step down in offense tonight. Jaime Garcia has not been very good as he has allowed seven runs over 11 innings in his first two starts. Additionally, he has just a 4:4 K:BB ratio while allowing three home runs. 10* (953) San Diego Padres |
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04-17-17 | White Sox +127 v. Yankees | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball as they have won seven straight games following sweeps of Tampa Bay and St. Louis to open the season 6-0 at home. The pitching has been the catalyst as New York has allowed just 18 runs during the winning streak after allowing 19 runs through its first five games. The White Sox have started 4-2 on this current roadtrip as they have been able to win both of their series in Cleveland and Minnesota. The Yankees turn to Jordan Montgomery who is making his second Major League start and his first one did not turn out too bad. He allowed three runs on five hits in 4.2 innings so while it was not over the top, it was respectable for his Major League debut taking place in Yankee Stadium. However, he comes in favored by a bigger amount tonight and for someone who has yet to prove anything, it is too much of an adjustment. Chicago counters with Derek Holland who left Texas after eight seasons to join the White Sox. He needed a change and so far, so good as he has tossed two quality outings in his first two starts, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. The only detriment is not even his fault as he needs more run support and Chicago has the edge tonight, hitting .250 against lefties while the Yankees are hitting just .138 against southpaws, easily the worst in baseball. 10* (961) Chicago White Sox |
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04-16-17 | Diamondbacks +179 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 179 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
We lost with Arizona yesterday as a 4-4 game was blown open by the Dodgers in the late innings but we come back with the Diamondbacks again today. Arizona has dropped three straight after a 7-2 start and look to get back into the series which concludes tomorrow night. The Dodgers are now 7-5 and have won consecutive games only twice. The offense has been either hit or miss as they have scored seven or more runs five times while scoring three runs or fewer five times. Taijuan Walker has been pretty average in his first two starts with Arizona after coming over from Seattle but he is a very solid pitcher. His ERA may not show it but a career WHIP of 1.22 in 64 starts shows that and he can continue that against an inconsistent Los Angeles offense. Rich Hill is coming off the 10-day disabled list because of a blister on his pitching hand and that is an injury that is one of the worst for pitchers. He is obviously good enough to throw but a blister can come back in an instant and how far he can go here is undetermined. Great underdog price on Arizona. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-16-17 | Phillies +159 v. Nationals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
The Phillies snapped a four-game slide with a 4-2 victory yesterday and have a chance to win their second series of the season, both against Washington. The Nationals have been a very average 6-5 and have actually been outscored by four runs, one of two teams in the National League with a winning record and a negative run differential. Philadelphia turns to Jerad Eickhoff who has been brilliant with his short time with the Phillies. In 43 career starts, he has a 3.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and he is a name not many people have even heard of. This includes a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in two starts this season, both quality outings, and he has allowed three runs or less in 29 of 35 starts going back to last season. Washington has not been able to solve him as he has a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three starts, all quality performances. Gio Gonzalez has also tossed a pair of quality outings to open the season but we are certainly not sold on that. He has had a rough couple of years in Washington and he has been the Nationals least profitable pitcher over that stretch with a -9 profit loss. 10* (953) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-15-17 | Diamondbacks +157 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Arizona was unfortunate as it had to face Clayton Kershaw last night and the ace did his job in dominating fashion yet again. The Diamondbacks have dropped three of four on this roadtrip but are in good position to bounce back tonight. The Dodgers have been average and are laying too big of a number here. Kenta Maeda was fantastic in his rookie season last year, anchoring a banged-up rotation all season long before fading down the stretch and disappearing in the postseason. Many of his late-season struggles in 2016 were attributed to fatigue but he is off to a rough start this season being unable to get through batting lineups. In 2016, Maeda pitched 6-plus innings 13 times in 32 starts and only twice did he complete seven innings and he has yet to make it into the sixth inning this season. Arizona is hitting .304 against righties this season which is the best in baseball. The Diamondbacks turn to Patrick Corbin who at one point in his career was looking like a dominant pitcher but injuries set him back. He struggled through an awful 2016 season after returning from Tommy John surgery but after a very solid spring, he won a job in the rotation and is coming off a quality outing over the Indians to pick up his first win of the season. The Dodgers are hitting just .207 against left-handed pitching and going back, they are 1-10 in their last 11 games against left-handed pitching. 10* (963) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-15-17 | Astros v. A's +138 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The Astros took the opener of this series last night to make it three straight wins and take a one-game lead in the American League West. They got a great outing from ace Dallas Keuchel but are actually favored at a higher price today which is way too aggressive. Oakland is off to an up and down start at 5-6 but it is hard to pass up on them today despite what looks like a pitching mismatch. Lance McCullers takes the mound for Houston and he has posted a pair of quality outings to open the season thanks to solid command. While it is encouraging, it cannot be ignored that he posted a 1.54 WHIP last season and is coming off an awful spring where he had a 7.31 ERA in 16 innings. Sean Manaea counters for Oakland and his season has not started as hoped as he has allowed nine runs in 11.1 innings but it is considered just a small roadblock. He is considered one of the top young pitchers in the organization after posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 25 games last season. He struck out 10 in his last start which was a career high and he has 20 career strikeouts in 21.1 innings against the Astros over four starts. He has posted a 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in those four outings including a stretch of 16.1 scoreless innings. Houston has won eight straight in this series going back to last season but that streak comes to an end Saturday. 10* (976) Oakland A's |
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04-14-17 | Tigers +156 v. Indians | Top | 7-6 | Win | 156 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The Tigers lost at home against Minnesota yesterday which snapped a three-game winning streak but we can expect a rebound here while getting a great number at the same time. Cleveland is off to an average start as it has dropped five of its last six games while scoring a total of 14 runs over that stretch. Daniel Norris takes the hill for Detroit and he dealt with injuries for most of last year and finished with a 4-2 record and a 3.38 ERA. He was only able to toss just over 69 innings last season but it became apparent that Norris had the chance to be something special. He made 13 starts and in those games, he allowed more than three runs not once which shows his consistency and if he can stay healthy, he is a star in the making. In his first start this season, he allowed three runs in 6.1 innings against Boston and while this is his first road start, he has never lost on the road as he is 6-0 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 19 career road games. The Indians counter with Trevor Bauer who was roughed up in Arizona in his season opener and is now in a very tough spot trying to bounce back. He has been average at home throughout his time here and he faces a nemesis as the Tigers have owned him. Bauer has a 6.89 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 10 games against Detroit which includes an 11.42 ERA in four starts over the last two seasons. 10* (915) Detroit Tigers |
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04-14-17 | Cardinals +142 v. Yankees | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Yankees have won four straight games following a three-game sweep over Tampa Bay to open the week. St. Louis looks to end that streak after salvaging the final game in Washington on Wednesday and put an end to an ugly 1-6 stretch. 2016 was a tough one for Michael Wacha after a great start to his career where he posted a 3.21 ERA in 2013-2015. He ballooned to a 5.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP last season after early struggles but he rebounded down the stretch and the start to this season has been promising. Wacha finished the spring with a 2.42 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 26 innings and he carried that into the regular season with six strong innings against the Reds where he allowed just one run on only three hits. His fastball velocity is back and his curveball has improved immensely according to catcher Yadier Molina. The Yankees send Masahiro Tanaka to the mound as he looks to rebound from a pair of bad outings to open the season. He has posted an 11.74 ERA and 2.61 WHIP over 7.2 innings and while a return home can help him out, he is having an issue with mechanics that actually goes back to spring training despite him posting very solid numbers. Typically, it is hard to go against him at Yankee Stadium but the situation here is a good one to do so as we can take advantage of a very good number. 10* (929) St. Louis Cardinals |
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04-14-17 | Pirates +165 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 165 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
We lost with the Pirates yesterday in a tough way as they blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning and wasted a great start from Chad Kuhl who held the Red Sox to one run on five hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings. We will back them again today however as they are catching a very good number with their ace on the hill and of course a lot of that has to do with the public loving Cubs being overvalued. After a very rough outing to open the season against the Red Sox, Gerrit Cole rebounded nicely in his second start against the Braves, allowing three runs in three innings although he was unable to pick up the victory. A date against the Cubs may not seem like a good opportunity to keep going the right way but Cole has succeeded against them his entire career. He is 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 11 career starts which includes going 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven starts at Wrigley Field. Kyle Hendricks had a below average start in his first outing of the season as he allowed four runs in six innings against the Brewers. He has dominated at Wrigley throughout his career but this being his first start here this season, it is unsure what we will see which helps add to the value. 10* (901) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-13-17 | Pirates +138 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
We played against the Pirates in all three games against the Reds and they ended up getting swept as the offense managed just five runs total. Today presents a good opportunity to get the bats going and we have a solid starting pitching advantage based on where we are. This is a make-up game from last week and the way the rotation worked out favors Pittsburgh. Chad Kuhl takes the hill for the Pirates and he is coming off an average start against the Braves where he allowed two earned runs in five innings but the big struggle was issuing six walks, although two were intentional. Pittsburgh got the win as it was able to turn three doubles plays while Kuhl was on the hill which was not a fluke. The Pirates are an organization that preaches the importance of ground balls and Kuhl is a ground ball pitcher. Last season, he allowed just seven home runs, and he generated a 44.3 percent ground ball rate. All of this led to him posting a 3.95 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, and a 0.9 WAR in 2016. The Red Sox counter with Eduardo Rodriguez who is coming off a rough first outing against the Tigers and he is the perfect pitcher to help the Pirates get out of their funk. Rodriguez went 0-4 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in nine starts at Fenway Park last season with Boston going 1-8 and dropping nine units. 10* (971) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-13-17 | Twins +128 v. Tigers | Top | 11-5 | Win | 128 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
The Tigers have taken the first two games of this series and they head into Thursday with the best record in the American League. They have held the Twins to just four runs but their own offense remains an issue as they are hitting only .213 which is sixth worst in baseball. Minnesota opened 5-1 prior to this series and the Twins are expected to be one of the big turnaround teams this year after an awful 2016 season. The offense opened with 30 runs over those first six games and they look to get it going again this afternoon. After a successful stint in Washington, Jordan Zimmerman came over to Detroit last season and things did not go well. He posted a 4.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 2016 and he got hit pretty hard this spring despite what many thought him having good stuff. He pitched well against Boston in his first regular season start but he has struggled at Comerica Park last season where he posted a 7.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 10 starts. Minnesota turns to Phil Hughes who is coming off an injury-plagued 2016 season that ended in early June. He started this season well with a quality outing against the White Sox where he allowed just one run in six innings. He is not a big step down from Zimmerman at all yet this line is telling us differently. He has a comfort zone here as Hughes has a 2.91 ERA in nine career starts at Comerica Park. 10* (961) Minnesota Twins |
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04-12-17 | Reds +150 v. Pirates | Top | 9-2 | Win | 150 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The public will once again be riding the Pirates tonight after losing the first two games of this series but we will be backing the Reds for a third straight game as the value is once again too good to pass up. Cincinnati is 6-2 which is a surprisingly good start after what looks to be a rebuilding season but both sides of the ball have been outstanding. The Pirates have been up and down and are below average in both hitting and pitching, posting a .224 average and 4.41 ERA. Amir Garrett gets the ball for the Reds and while no one has likely heard of him, they will soon enough. He was a top prospect in the system after getting drafted out of St. Johns and while he was pretty average in Rookie and A Leagues but over the last two years in the Minors, he posted a 2.50 ERA over 285 innings. Garrett won three games in spring training and displayed good control as he walked just six batters over 21.1 innings. He opened the regular season by tossing six shutout innings at St. Louis and now faces a Pittsburgh teams hitting a woeful .138 against lefties, tied for second worst in baseball. Ivan Nova counters for the Pirates and he is also coming off a solid first outing of the season as he allowed no earned runs in six innings against the Braves. He faces a much hotter offense this time around and the Reds are hitting .273 against righties which is seventh best in baseball. 10* (903) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-12-17 | Cardinals +184 v. Nationals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 184 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Washington has won the first two games of this series thanks to an offense that has erupted for 22 runs after scoring a total of 26 runs in its first six games. It has been a rough start for the Cardinals which are 2-6 to open the season but they are catching a great number here as they try to snap a three-game skid. St. Louis gives the ball to Mike Leake who has been a very underrated pitcher throughout his career as in 203 career starts, he has a 3.97 ERA and 1.27 WHIP which are very solid numbers. Leake had a very good spring training with a 3.81 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 26 innings so his regular season debut was no surprise. He went eight innings and allowed just one run on six hits and he was very efficient by tossing just 92 pitches. Unfortunately, he did not get the win as his offense could not muster up a run for him. Leake has enjoyed success in his career against the heart of the Washington order and in one start in Washington last year, he posted a quality start by allowing just two runs in seven innings. This number is this big not only because of the Washington recent offense but because Max Scherzer is on the hill. He looked good in his season debut against the Phillies but that is the Phillies and while the St. Louis bats have been relatively quiet, they were able to rough up Scherzer in this park last season, tagging him for five runs in seven innings. Since Scherzer arrived two years ago in Washington, the Nationals are just 17-16 in his 33 home starts, resulting in -12.1 units. 10* (907) St. Louis Cardinals |
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04-11-17 | Reds +175 v. Pirates | Top | 6-2 | Win | 175 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
We won with the Reds last night as they were able to get to Tyler Glasnow as expected and despite a poor outing from their own starter Brandon Finnegan, the bullpen came to the rescue by not allowing a run or a hit over the last seven innings. While the bats have been up and down, they have scored 15 runs the last two games and the pitching has been spot on, allowing one run or less in four of seven games. One of those did not take place when Rookie Davis made his Major League debut but we can give him the benefit of the doubt. Davis allowed two Daniel Nava home runs which accounted for three of his four runs allowed so while hid debut was far from stellar, it was not horrendous. Interestingly, those two home runs had an average exit velocity of 100.3 mph but the other eight batted balls against him averaged only 85.7 mph. Jameson Taillon counters for the Pirates and he is coming off a solid season debut as he allowed no runs on five hits in seven innings against the Red Sox. He looks like he is a rising star but he is not quite there yet and a line this high is reserved for pitchers in that group. The Reds have now won five straight meetings in Pittsburgh and there is no reason they cannot extend it to six. 10* (957) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-11-17 | Padres +161 v. Rockies | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
San Diego won in Colorado in the series opener last night thanks to Wil Myers hitting for the cycle, the second Padre ever to do so. The Padres evened their record at 4-4 with three of those wins coming as significant underdogs. There is not a huge difference between these two teams yet the line is again telling us different which is largely based on the starters coming in and what happened in their season debuts. Jered Weaver did not have a good debut as a Padre as he allowed four runs on five hits in five innings. Two of those came from Yasiel Puig and unfortunately for Weaver, both were two-run home runs which accounted for 40 percent of the hits allowed and all four runs so the outing was not really as bad at first glance with the exception of two bad pitches. Antonio Senzatela will make his Coors Field debut on Tuesday following a very successful Major League debut. He went five innings at Milwaukee, allowing no runs, two hits and three walks with six strikeouts. That line is very similar to that of Weaver with the exception of the two home runs allowed by Weaver so it shows how numbers can be skewed by just two pitches. The Coors Field home advantage has diminished over the last few years so we catch great value with the road team. 10* (959) San Diego Padres |
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04-10-17 | Reds +129 v. Pirates | Top | 7-1 | Win | 129 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
The Reds are off to a solid 4-2 start after winning each of their first two series against the Phillies and Cardinals. Cincinnati remains on the road in Pittsburgh where it has been successful over the last few years including wins in four straight games at PNC Park. The Pirates are coming off a weekend sweep of the Braves but it was not easy as two of those were one-run victories including a walk-off and the other came by just two runs. They were medium sized favorites in all of those games and are again here but this one is definitely too high. Brandon Finnegan takes the hill for the Reds and he pitched a gem in his season opener as he went seven innings, allowing no runs on just one hit while striking out nine and walking one. It was not a big surprise as he had a solid 2016 season and in 234 career innings, he has a 3.69 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Pittsburgh turns to Tyler Glasnow who is making his first start of the season after having a start skipped last week. He won the fifth starter job after a decent spring but his real Major League experience is limited and not great as he posted a 4.24 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 23.1 MLB innings last year. Additionally, Glasnow walked five batters per nine innings or more at both Triple-A and the majors last season. 10* (907) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-09-17 | Cubs v. Brewers +169 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
After losing the opener of this series on Friday, the Cubs bounced back yesterday with an 11-6 victory. They are now 3-2 on the season and the focus may not all be there today as the anticipation of playing their home opener tomorrow will be prevalent. The Brewers will be out to avoid a 2-5 homestand before heading to Toronto for a series starting on Tuesday. So far the pitching has been hit or miss and they are big underdogs at home based on the pitching matchup today. Zach Davies got roughed up by the Rockies in his season opener as he allowed six runs in just 4.1 innings. He wins with his tremendous command but that was not on display in his opener but a rebound should be in play here. He faced the Cubs twice at home last year and allowed a total of just three runs over 13 innings, part of a very solid 2016 season so we can chalk up the effort on Tuesday as an aberration. Chicago sends Jake Arrieta to the hill and he is coming off a solid season debut against the Cardinals. He faced Milwaukee three times last season and he was not very dominant, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 16.2 innings. 10* (956) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-08-17 | A's +163 v. Rangers | Top | 6-1 | Win | 163 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
After getting swept by the Indians to open the season, the Rangers picked up their first win last night against Oakland as they opened the game with eight runs in the first two innings and never looked back. They are heavily priced tonight to make it two straight but that is unjustified. Oakland split its opening series with the Angels before last night and they go back to the top of the rotation with Kendall Graveman. He was very solid in his season opener as he pitched six innings, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks while striking out seven. Graveman, was the top Oakland starter last season when Sonny Gray was out with an elbow strain. He finished 10-11 with 4.11 ERA but had stretches in which he was superb, going 9-2 with a 3.33 ERA from May 30 to Aug. 24. Yu Darvish counters for Texas and he struggled in his opener against the Indians, allowing four runs on four hits and five walks in 6.1 innings. He is already making a chance as he is moving from working on the first base side of the rubber to the third base side and after one start, that is something you do not want to hear as early tinkering is never a good thing. He is 3-9 with a 4.64 ERA in 14 starts against Oakland. 10* (923) Oakland A's |
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04-08-17 | Reds +162 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
The public will be loading up on the Cardinals following their third straight loss last night but there is no value in this team. St. Louis is being priced on the old team that found a lot of success and not the new team which quite frankly, is not very good. They have a solid pitching staff and the bats have the potential to be solid but this is still one of the worst defensive teams in the league and that is an overlooked factor. We are getting our first look at Michal Wacha this season and after producing three great seasons, he is coming off the worst of his career so the fact he is the fifth starter should be no surprise yet he is not priced like one. He will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo which is a name that has not been mentioned recently. He is returning to a Major League starting rotation for the first time since Tommy John and shoulder surgery took him out of the game in 2014. While this may be considered a red flag, he has said that he is pitching pain free for the first time since surgery and being back in Cincinnati only makes the journey back more special. 10* (901) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-07-17 | Indians v. Diamondbacks +132 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 132 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Arizona took two of three against the Giants and it remains home to face another World Series contender. The Diamondbacks offense has started on fire as they have averaged 6.8 rpg and hope to keep that going here. The Indians are coming off a sweep in Texas as their offense has also gotten off to a great start. While many will see that firepower to continue here, we go contrarian with a pitcher than no one will want to be on. Shelby Miller is coming off a horrible 2016 season as he ended with a 3-12 mark and a 6.15 ERA in 20 starts. That also included an extended stay in the minors with Triple-A Reno. By his own admission, Miller arrived in camp this spring with a changed disposition and a chip on his shoulder. A heightened level of confidence was detected as well as a quieter disposition. He is poised for a big bounce back season. The Indians counter with Josh Tomlin who was up and down last season. He went 13-9 with a 4.40 ERA while allowing a .269 average. He limited his walks to just 20 and while that is normally a huge asset, this is a contact park and could actually be a bad thing at Chase Field. 10* (980) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-07-17 | Dodgers v. Rockies +131 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 131 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
The Rockies opened the season with a 3-1 series win in Milwaukee and is now back in Colorado for their home debut. The Dodgers are also off to a 3-1 start after taking it to the Padres at home and they were the worst road team in baseball last season as far as +/- units with that being based on their prices being overinflated. Colorado turns to Kyle Freeland who is making his Major League debut but it is unlike the typical debut. He is a local pitcher who grew up nearby so this one is certainly extra special. A strong spring (3.48 ERA, 19 strikeouts, six walks) helped Freeland earn a spot in the Colorado starting rotation following a strong run in the Minors where he posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 51 starts. Freeland is untested but he does have one thing working in his favor as he is used to pitching at altitude. The Dodgers turn to Hyun-Jin Ryu who is a surprising large favorite. His return to the rotation ends a two-year trial that included more surgeries (one each on his shoulder and elbow) than big-league starts (one bad outing last July). He is tough to trust at this point and at this price. 10* (956) Colorado Rockies |
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04-06-17 | Mariners +145 v. Astros | Top | 4-2 | Win | 145 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
It has been a tough start to the season for Seattle as it has lost the first three games of this series by unfortunate circumstances. In Game One, start Felix Hernandez had to exit early with an injury, in Game Two, the Mariners lost 2-1 despite outhitting the Astros 7-5 and in Game Three last night, they lost in 13 innings on a three-run walk-off home run. They look to avoid the sweep tonight and turn to Ariel Miranda who is coming off an uneven spring training but has the ability to success for sure. Miranda showed flashes of dominance in 10 starts with Seattle last season enroute to a 3.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 40:18 K:BB ratio. One of his best starts came against the Astros where he went seven innings and allowed just two runs on three hits. The Astros counter with Joe Musgrove who made his first ever opening day roster. Musgrove got his first taste of major league action in 2016 in an August call-up, posting a 4-4 record with a 4.06 ERA in 11 games (10 starts). He showed flashes of why he is a top prospect but also showed signs of being not quite ready. Seattle avoids a 0-4 start on Thursday. 10* (921) Seattle Mariners |
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04-05-17 | Pirates +170 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Boston took the opener of this series on Monday and after an off day, the Red Sox and Pirates are back on. Boston is by far the biggest public favorite today which comes as no surprise and the public is all over all favorites again as on Monday and Tuesday, -110 chalk or higher have gone 15-1. The underdogs will balance this out and we get a good price here. Pittsburgh turns to Jameson Taillon who is far from a household name but he is a solid young pitcher for the Pirates. He posted a great rookie campaign and perhaps his most significant achievement was showing that he is completely healthy again after missing so much development time due to injury, notably Tommy John surgery. He made 18 starts, showing a welcomed durability, while posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Chris Sale makes his debut for the Red Sox as he is coming off another great season for the White Sox. Many believe this acquisition will take Boston over the top and while it very well could, the Red Sox debut certainly comes with some pressure. Despite a 17-10 record last season, Sale lost units because of the overinflated lines that come behind him. The Pirates are a solid team so getting a number this big is too good to pass up. 10* (979) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-05-17 | Marlins +147 v. Nationals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The Washington win on Monday was one of 15 out of 16 favorites of -110 or higher that have won over the last two days so the public is cleaning up early. We can expect this to start to revert itself and this is a good situation to be included in that. Miami blew a 2-0 lead in the series opener as the bullpen allowed four runs which was definitely a surprise and ruined a solid outing by starter Edinson Volquez. Tonight, the Marlins send one of their top offseason acquisitions to the hill as Dan Straily makes him Miami debut. Straily struck out 17 in 17.2 innings with just one walk this spring, and made his case to pitch near the top of the rotation. Acquired from the Reds in January, Straily came as advertised. With Cincinnati last year, he went 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 191.1 innings. He faced the Nationals twice and was solid, posting a 3.21 ERA and 0.64 WHIP, both games resulting in quality outings. He will be opposed by Tanner Roark who is coming off another great season but his mental game will be tested tonight. Last season, four of his 10 losses came at the hands of Miami. In six starts, Roark went 2-4 with 4.46 ERA and of the 66 earned runs allowed over 210 innings, 17 were surrendered to the Marlins. 10* (953) Miami Marlins |
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04-04-17 | Indians v. Rangers +141 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Cleveland won its season opener last night as it took out Texas 8-5 despite a poor outing from ace Corey Kluber. The Indians were able to get to the Rangers bullpen as a 5-3 deficit was turned around with five runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. Now Cleveland comes in as a bigger favorite based on the number two arms in the rotation. Texas turns to Martin Perez who had some exceptional starts last season but was unable to stay consistent with a few poor outings here and there. Still, he posted 19 quality outings in 33 starts and he is coming off a solid spring with a 2.79 ERA in three starts. It does say something that he is the number two guy over Cole Hamels, the third time in four years he has been there which shows what expectations are. He feels poised for a breakthrough season, three years removed from Tommy John surgery. The Indians counter with Carlos Carrasco who was having a solid 2016 season but has it cut short. This will be his first start since he took a comebacker off the bat of Ian Kinsler last September that broke his hand. His hand appears to be fine, but he had some minor elbow issues throughout spring training so do not expect him to be stretched too far early on. 10* (912) Texas Rangers |
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04-03-17 | Mariners +139 v. Astros | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Both Seattle and Houston expect to contend in the American League West and they get the season started on Monday. Seattle improved by 10 games from 2015 and expectations are to bump that up more this season. The Mariners finished within 10 games of first place for the just the third time in 15 years and they led the division in run differential. Houston was a disappointment however as it finished two games behind the Mariners. The Astros will be counting on their offense once again but it is the starting rotation that needs to improve after a very bad 2016 season. Dallas Keuchel sported a 4.55 ERA in 2016 after winning the American League Cy Young in 2015. He won just nine games and he is difficult to back at a price like this and who he is going up against. Felix Hernandez is also coming off a disappointing season as he had a 3.82 ERA, his highest since his 2007 season. He battled injuries but came to spring training in much better shape so he should be in for a solid bouncer back season. He had a very solid spring training and additionally, he pitched well in the WBC, posting a 1.17 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over two starts. In his nine Opening Day starts, he is 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA and the Mariners have gone 8-1 in those games. 10* (963) Seattle Mariners |
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04-03-17 | Braves +181 v. Mets | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
The Braves are looking to turn around a disappointing 68-93 season but it was solid finish as they went 59-65 under manager Brian Snitker who took over for Fredi Gonzalez who was fired a month and a half into the season. Atlanta added some much-needed veteran talent in free agency as well as trades and now has a nice balanced roster. The Mets will be out to make the playoffs for a third straight season behind one of the best pitching rotations in baseball. They were just seven games over .500 at home and showed a negative 12-unit balance. Atlanta turns to Julio Teheran who is coming off a very solid season with a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 30 starts. Teheran has faced the Mets seven times over the last two seasons and he has posted a 1.52 ERA with six of those being quality outings including all four from last season. New York counters with Noah Syndergaard who is coming off a great season as he posted a lower ERA than Teheran but a higher WHIP. In three career starts against the Braves, he has a 5.52 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Mets are without closer Jeurys Familia who has been suspended for the first 15 games of the season and should this game be close, this is a big issue for New York as he led baseball last season with 51 saves. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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11-02-16 | Cubs -114 v. Indians | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The 2016 MLB season comes down to one game as the Cubs have fought back from a 3-1 series deficit to tie it up and send it to a deciding Game Seven. Chicago clearly has the momentum now with a pair of wins highlighted by the bats coming to life last night. This should be an epic starting pitching matchup and one that we give the edge to Chicago based on the situation and circumstance. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for the Cubs and he carried a great regular season into a solid postseason. He pitched to his Major League-best 2.13 ERA by limiting the quality of his opponents' contact better than almost anyone in the game. Kyle Kluber will be making his third start this World Series and he has certainly been lights out. The Cubs could have the edge here however as seeing the same pitcher for a third time in nine days is an advantage. History is not on his side however. He will become the 19th pitcher to start Games 1, 4 and 7 of the World Series, with the latter two on short rest. The 18 others went a combined 9-7 with a 3.00 ERA in Game 7 which is certainly good but far from dominant. We feel the bigger curse will be broken tonight. 10* (901) Chicago Cubs |
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10-29-16 | Indians v. Cubs -127 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The Cleveland pitching stifled the Cubs bats for a second time in this World Series as it won in a shutout for the second time in three games. The Chicago offense has disappeared on several occasions in the postseason as it has scored one run or less in five games but three of those were followed up by efforts of a combined 20 runs. We can expect to see that tonight as even though they are facing Corey Kluber, this is the second time they have seen him in a span of four days. Kluber tossed six shutout innings in the 6-0 Game One victory but the advantage goes to the Cubs this time around as a second look is always an edge and Kluber has not been as good on the road as he has been at home. Cleveland is just 9-8 in his 17 road starts and going back, the Indians are 3-9 in his last 12 road games after he allowed two earned runs or fewer in two straight starts. John Lackey counters for Chicago with its season on the line and you could not ask for a better veteran to be taking the hill in this spot. He has been sensational at Wrigley Field this season, posting a 2.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 16 starts, 12 of which have been quality. He is working with a lot of rest and has tossed only 146 pitches over two postseason starts and those were on the road. Experience is big and Lackey has a 3.26 ERA in 25 prior postseason appearances, including 22 starts. 10* (904) Chicago Cubs |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Cleveland and Chicago split the first two game of the World Series and now they head to Chicago for three straight games over the weekend. The Cubs will have to sweep the set if they want to celebrate the World Series win at home but most important, after claiming home field with the split in Cleveland, they do not want to give it back in Game three. Chicago is 61-25 at home this season which is by far the best record in baseball and if you thought the frenzy in Cleveland was big, wait until tonight. Josh Tomlin takes the hill for the Indians and he has had a solid, yet unspectacular postseason. He has not been able to post a quality outing as he has not been able to get six full innings in but has been good enough to sneak out a pair of one-run wins. He has been decent on the road but a 4.27 ERA is a problem especially against the Chicago bats that came to life in Game Two. Kyle Hendricks had the best ERA in the National League yet he still considered the third best pitcher in this staff which is certainly a good thing for the Cubs. He has been outstanding at home this season with a 1.37 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over 17 starts with the Cubs winning 12 of those. Most important for this wager is how the Cubs have been winning when Hendricks takes the hill. The Cubs have won 21 games that he has started and of those 21 games, 20 came by more than one run including the last 19 so it is a much safer bet to play the runline and get much better odds than to lay a huge moneyline price. 10* (902) Chicago Cubs -1.5 Runs |
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10-26-16 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
The Cubs suffered a 6-0 loss last night which is the third time they have been shutout in the postseason but we expect that to change tonight. We are not going to be laying a big price on the road however as it is undeserved at this point based on the starting pitching as we figure both offenses have the advantage tonight. Arrieta has been struggling over his last few starts as he has a 7.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his last three games and a big reason for this is the time off between starts. He has had 12 and 8 days of rest before his first two postseason starts and he will be pitching on eight days' rest again tonight. All of these starts have been on the road but tonight presents a bigger challenge. Those first two postseason starts took place in California and now he will be pitching in very cold weather with the gametime temperature expected to be in the low 40s. He pitched in similar conditions against the Mets in the playoffs last year and was lit up. Trever Bauer lasted just two-thirds of an inning in his last start because of his lacerated pinkie finger on his throwing hand and the Indians are hoping it has healed enough not to be an issue again tonight. He has really struggled since early September as he has posted a 6.94 ERA over his last seven starts and the best part for Chicago is that Andrew Miller tossed 46 pitchers last night and will be limited tonight. After the Cubs were shutout last night, we can expect a big bounceback opportunity tonight. 10* Over (953) Chicago Cubs/(954) Cleveland Indians |
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10-25-16 | Cubs v. Indians +107 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 107 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
By virtue of the American League winning the 2016 All-Star Game, the Indians were able to claim home field advantage for the World Series despite posting a record that was nine games worse than that of the Cubs. That is a huge edge for Cleveland which was tied for Texas for the best home record in the American League at 53-28 and it opens the fall classic with its ace on the hill. Corey Kluber gets the ball and he looks to continue with what has been another fantastic season. He went 20-10 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 247 strikeouts and just 64 walks. He only had four bad starts where he allowed five or more runs and three of those were on the road with the one at home coming way back in April. He's 2-1 with a 0.98 ERA in three postseason starts, two of them coming in the AL Championship Series against the Blue Jays, one on short rest. Only Ben Zobrist and Dexter Fowler have had more than three at-bats in their career against Kluber and those two are a combined 1-for-20 with seven strikeouts. Jon Lester did have a better season but a large part of success came at home where his ERA is nearly a run and a half less than it is on the road. The Indians led the American League with 134 stolen bases and Lester is one of the worst pitchers when it comes to holding guys on and limiting stolen bases so Cleveland can take advantage to get runners in scoring position. 10* (952) Cleveland Indians |
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10-22-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs +125 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 125 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
It has been 71 years since the Cubs last made it to the World Series and they have a chance to break that curse tonight. It certainly will not be easy based on who they are facing but they have momentum from two straight wins which had added some value to this number. Chicago was last here in this spot back in 2003 when it had a 3-2 series lead but failed to win either of the final two games against the Marlins. Only 10 teams in MLB history has won Games Six and Seven on the road and the Cubs will try and break their six-game losing streak in pennant-clinching games. Clayton Kershaw has appeared in four postseason games for the Dodgers and they have won all four of those games. He is coming off his best start where he allowed no runs on just two hits over seven innings in Game Two. His other two starts against Washington were average at best and while going against one of the greatest pitchers of all time is never easy, his postseason struggles can pop up at any time. Kyle Hendricks used his command and trademark changeup to become the first Cub since 1945 to win the NL ERA title. He was 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA over 190 innings, and grew more effective late in the season (7-1, 1.72 in his last 11 starts). He took the loss against the Dodgers in Game Two as he allowed a home run to Adrian Gonzalez which was the only run scored in the game. He has a 2.02 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers this season, both coming at home. Even with the Game Two loss, the Cubs are 8-2 in his last 10 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (910) Chicago Cubs |
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10-19-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Toronto kept its postseason going for at least one more day and while it is in good shape to extend this series to a Game Six and head back to Cleveland, we are not thrilled with the number the Blue Jays are being asked to lay. That being said, the total is what we are going after today as the offenses have a chance to wake up after a slow start to the series. In total through four games, there have been just 17 runs scored so it comes as no surprise that all four of those games went under the total. We take the contrarian route here with this Wednesday total that actually seems to have some value in it. There is no denying this series could get awfully interesting now that Toronto has life and Cleveland is sending such a uniquely inexperienced arm out for Game Five. Ryan Merritt will be making just his second career Major League start and while his first one 19 days ago was pretty solid against the Royals, the magnitude of this one is a touch bigger. This is a game where the Blue Jays bats can wake up in potentially their final home game of the season. Marco Estrada is coming off a solid effort in Cleveland in his first start in this series and he has now allowed two runs or less in five straight starts. However, only one of those was at home and he has not been at his best here as he has a 5.03 ERA in his last 10 starts at the Rogers Centre. The over is 5-1 in his last six home starts while the over is 16-3 in the Indians last 19 games after batting .200 or worse over a five game span. 10* Over (903) Cleveland Indians/(904) Toronto Blue Jays |
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10-18-16 | Cubs -118 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The Cubs lost a tough one on Sunday as Clayton Kershaw completely shut them down as they had just two hits overall giving the Dodgers the home field edge heading into Game Three. The Los Angeles offense has not been much better however as it managed only three hits in that 1-0 victory and it will be tested again big time tonight. The Dodgers home field advatnage is pretty solid but when it comes to this matchup, it flips the other way. The Cubs are 19-6 in their last 26 games following a loss while going 21-6 in their last 27 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Jake Arrieta has the task of giving the advantage back to Chicago and while it is not a must win, it is pretty close to that. Arrieta tossed a quality outing in his first postseason start against the Giants and while he has not been as dominant as he was early in the season, he is still in top form. He has faced the Dodgers twice the last two years and has allowed no runs on two hits over 16 combined innings. Rich Hill has not been very effective of late as he has gone five straight starts without a quality outing and has a 4.84 ERA over that stretch with the Dodgers losing four of those five games. Los Angeles is giving him just 2.9 rpg of support and not much more should be expected tonight. 10* (953) Chicago Cubs |
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10-16-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs +121 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Typically, the first look in this game would be on the Dodgers which lost Game One and would like nothing more than to produce a split before heading home. However, this line is completely wrong as it is based on the starting pitching names and nothing else. Giving up five runs in the eighth inning last night is a brutal way to lose a game especially after tying it up in the top half of the inning and that is a tough one to recover from. The Cubs have been a home underdog only once this entire season and that was with Jason Hammel on the hill, not Kyle Hendricks who has quietly put together a Cy Young season. He is 16-8 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 31 starts and those numbers are even better at home. In 15 Wrigley Field starts, he is 9-2 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP and he has allowed more than two runs only five times the entire season. The only reason he is a home dog here is because of Clayton Kershaw opposing him and while Kershaw is one of the best, the line is inflated simply because of who he is. He is coming off the Game Five, two-out save against Washington but what is lost in that series is the fact that he struggles with his starts which has been the case for him during his postseason career. He allowed eight runs in 11.2 innings and his postseason career ERA has ballooned to 4.79. 10* (908) Chicago Cubs |
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10-14-16 | Blue Jays +124 v. Indians | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
This is a very evenly matched series between the Blue Jays and Indians and while Cleveland has the home field advantage, that is not something that should come into play here. Cleveland took the season series four games to three but the coring differential is the story as the Blue Jays outscored the Indians 38-24 with all three of their Cleveland wins coming by just one run. Toronto finished fourth in the bigs with 223 homers and feature eight players with double-digit dingers and it has carried that into the postseason as the Blue Jays have hit 10 home runs through four games. The pitching matchup may not look that even based on the names, but in reality it is and Toronto is catching a good number based on this. Marco Estrada had a decent career in Milwaukee but since coming to Toronto, he has been great. He has posted a 3.30 ERA in two seasons consisting of 57 starts and this season on the road he was extremely solid with a 3.19 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 15 starts with Toronto winning nine of those last 12. Corey Kluber counters for the Indians and his numbers this season were only slightly better but more wins were registered because of greater run support. He has dominated in recent years when favored by a large number but the Indians have not exactly done him many favors as lower favorites as they are just 10-18 when the money line is between -100 to -150 over the last two seasons. 10* (901) Toronto Blue Jays |
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10-13-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
The only Divisional Series to go the distance continues on Thursday as the Dodgers head back east to take on the Nationals. The strategy to put Clayton Kershaw on the hill on short rest almost did not pay off for Los Angeles as he clearly did not have his best stuff as he allowed five earned runs in 6.2 innings although three of those were inherited runs charged to him by the bullpen. Luckily, the Dodgers were able to get it done late thanks to a Chase Utley RBI single in the eighth inning to extend the series to a Game Five. We played against Rich Hill in Game Two on Sunday and will do so again here. He has been solid all season, both with Oakland and Los Angeles, however, he has gone four straight starts without a quality outing and has a 5.03 ERA over that stretch with the Dodgers losing all four of those games. Los Angeles is giving him just 2.7 rpg of support while the Nationals are hitting .311 against lefties over their last five games. Washington counters with Max Scherzer who is exactly who it wants in this spot. He did not have his best stuff in the series opener as he allowed four runs in six innings and it was the long ball that did him in as he allowed two home runs and that has been his problem all season long. Perhaps the favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award, Scherzer led the National League with 20 wins, 228.1 innings, 284 strikeouts and a 0.97 WHIP while his 2.96 ERA ranked eighth. This is the reason why the Nationals saved for Game Five and it will pay off. 10* (962) Washington Nationals |
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10-11-16 | Cubs -127 v. Giants | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
The Giants staved off elimination last night with a thrilling 13-inning victory over the Cubs to keep their postseason going. They took a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning as they were able to get to Aroldis Chapman who blew a rare save and instead of folding after a Kris Bryant two-run home run in the top of the ninth inning, San Francisco did its part to win it in the 13th inning. The bullpen had to go eight innings and has now tossed 14 innings over the last two games so the key for the Cubs tonight is to get to Matt Moore early which should not be a problem. Moore was pretty average this season after coming over from Tampa Bay with a 4.08 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 12 starts. While his numbers at home are much better, only two of his six home starts were quality outings and that does not help having a taxed bullpen. On the other side, John Lackey goes for the Cubs and the one reason he came to Chicago was to win a ring so you can be sure he will go all out here. He has made 23 postseason appearances including 20 starts and has a 3.11 ERA in those games so he not only has the playoff experience, he has positive playoff experience. He closed the season well with seven quality performances over his last 10 starts and while his numbers were not as great on the road, in 13 road starts, eight of those were quality outings. The Cubs are 18-7 in their last 26 games following a loss while the Giants are 5-11 in their last 16 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (953) Chicago Cubs |
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10-10-16 | Nationals +132 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 132 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
There is a short turnaround in what would normally be a travel day for Washington and Los Angeles but there is no advantage either way as both teams are forced to play following the Saturday rainout. The Nationals evened up the series with a 5-2 win yesterday and are catching a solid underdog number here. They are nine games over .500 on the road which is significantly better than what the Dodgers have done on the highway. That is pretty big considering Los Angeles possessed the second best home record in the National League. The Nationals go with Gio Gonzalez who had one of his worst seasons ever but is actually in a good spot here today. He is pitching on 12 days of rest and he could not ask for a better team to face at this point than the Dodgers. One of his better starts this season was when he allowed one run on three hits in six innings in an 8-1 win over the Dodgers and in his career, he has a 3-1 record with a 1.69 ERA in five starts. The current Dodgers are batting just .160 against him with just one home run by Carlos Ruiz, who he often faced with the Phillies in 144 at-bats. The Dodgers finished with an MLB-worst .213 average against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers send Kenta Maeda to the hill and he is having a solid season but he did slow up down the stretch. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the All Star Break but put up a 4.25 ERA in his 14 starts after the break. The Nationals are 9-4 in their last 13 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 10* (901) Washington Nationals |
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10-09-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals +109 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 109 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
We lost with Washington on Friday in a game that could have gone either way as both Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw were far from on their games. While we did not think that the home run would hurt Scherzer in this spot, it in fact did him in. We will back the Nationals as they are a home underdog once again which signals very good value after the Saturday rainout. Tanner Roark is not getting a lot of credit here simply because he is not a big name. He put up big numbers however as he posted a 2.83 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 33 starts and his best stuff came before the sun went down as he is 8-2 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 daytime starts. The Nationals are 9-3 in his last 12 home starts. Rich Hill counters for the Dodgers and he has been solid all season, both with Oakland and Los Angeles. However, he has gone three straight starts without a quality outing and has a 4.11 ERA over that stretch with the Dodgers losing all three of those games. Los Angeles is giving him just 2.8 rpg of support while the Nationals are hitting .280 against lefties over their last five games. Here, we play against National League road teams that are hitting .250 or less going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.10 or better and a WHIP of 1.25 or better and an ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This situation is 41-18 (69.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Washington Nationals |
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10-07-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals +136 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This has the makings of a great series and while going against Clayton Kershaw is never easy, getting Max Scherzer at this price at home is a must take. The Nationals finished the regular season 50-31 at home including a 12-5 record in September while the Dodgers were five games under .500 on the road. The Dodgers won five of the six meetings this season but Scherzer was not on the mound for any of those while Kershaw only went once and that was at home. Kershaw has made a strong comeback after missing over two months with a back injury but the postseason has been his enigma as he is 2-6 with a 4.59 ERA in 13 games. He is definitely one of the best pitchers in the game but the mental part of the postseason can come into play again. Scherzer had another outstanding season as he led the National League in innings pitched, strikeouts and wins on his way to another Cy Young Award-caliber season. His problem was allowing too many home runs but the Dodgers are not a big threat with just 199 home runs this season. Here, we play on National League home teams that are hitting between .255 to .269 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. This situation is 155-83 (65.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (952) Washington Nationals |
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10-07-16 | Red Sox v. Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 114 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We won with the over in this game last night but it was not easy with the final run coming in at the top of the eighth inning. Game Two takes place this afternoon with what should have been the Game One starters and we can expect a lot less hits than the 20 that were banged out last night. David Price gets the ball for Boston and he had a pretty average season by his standards, posting a 3.99 ERA over 35 starts. He has always struggled against the Yankees and that was the case again this season as he posted a 7.89 ERA in five starts against them. Takes those out and his ERA drops to 3.41 in his 30 other starts and he closed the season by allowing three runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts, the only two exceptions coming against New York. While the over has come in the majority of those games, a look at the opposing starting pitcher will explain why. Corey Kluber was given an additional day of rest and should be extremely fresh after having 11 days off with tossing just 60 pitches in his last start. He had a quad issue but after two bullpen sessions, he has been deemed healthy. Overall he had another great season and like Price, he is a strikeout machine as he finished No. 5 in the American League, one behind Price. Look for a solid pitching duel in this critical Game Two. 10* Under (955) Boston Red Sox/(956) Cleveland Indians |
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10-06-16 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The ALDS between Boston and Cleveland does not start off with the pitching matchup as expected and we could see some fireworks for Game One. The two highest scoring teams in the American League square off and the home road splits are not affected at all as Boston was the highest scoring road team in the American League while Cleveland was the second highest scoring team at home in the junior circuit. The Red Sox have the highest-scoring offense in the Majors, while averaging 5.2 rpg in their season series against Cleveland and they send Rick Porcello to the hill who took the ace tag away from David Price this season. He has been solid all season with a 3.15 ERA over 33 starts and has been the beneficiary of great run support of 6.6 rpg including 6.1 rpg in 17 road starts. Porcello will make his third career start and ninth career appearance in the postseason where he is 0-2 with a 4.41 ERA in 16.1innings. Trevor Bauer makes the Game One start over Corey Kluber who is getting an extra day of rest because of a quad strain. Bauer posted a 3.30 ERA prior to the All Star Break, but has struggled in his last five starts with a 7.28 ERA. In his lone start against Boston this season, Bauer surrendered four runs on eight hits over five innings and going back, the over is 6-1 in his last seven home starts against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1-1 in the Indians last seven games against right-handed starters while the over is 10-4 in Porcellos last 14 road starts. 10* Over (935) Boston Red Sox/(936) Cleveland Indians |
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10-05-16 | Giants v. Mets +100 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
We saw how home field played a part last night in the A.L. Wild Card game and we have a similar situation tonight. The Mets finished with the same regular-season record as the Giants at 87-75 but earned the home field advantage for this game by virtue of a 4-3 record in the seven games the clubs played against each other. The Mets came on huge down the stretch to earn a second straight trip to the postseason after they were decimated with injuries and rest has played a big part as going back, the Mets are 21-6 in their last 27 games following an off day. The Giants closed the regular season with four straight wins to finish one game ahead of St. Louis, which also finished with four straight wins. Overall though, it was not a good second half for the Giants as they went 30-42 after the All Star Break including a 14-23 record on the road. Additionally, the Giants are 14-37 in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record. Noah Syndergaard gets the ball for the Mets and he is the best option in this one-and-done game as he went 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 218 strikeouts in 183.2 innings. He posted a 3.32 ERA in the postseason last year coming from three starts and one relief appearance. Syndergaard has the highest average four-seam fastball velocity, sinker velocity and slider velocity of any starting pitcher in baseball this season. The Giants turn to their ace with Madison Bumgarner and he has been nothing short of spectacular but he did leak some oil down the stretch and was average on the road. The Giants are 1-4 in his last five road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (934) New York Mets |
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10-04-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -145 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Toronto earned the right to host this Wild Card game by taking 10 of the 19 meetings this year in the season series including six of 10 at home. Give the Blue Jays credit for getting the job done over the weekend by beating Boston both Saturday and Sunday when the Red Sox were not even resting players despite having already clinched the division. Toronto finished only three games better at home than on the road but those splits are more important the other way as Baltimore went 50-31 at home but just 39-42 on the road. The Orioles did do well when Chris Tillman pitched on the road but after a great start to the season, he slipped toward the end, posting a 6.00 ERA over his last five starts and a 5.44 ERA over his last nine outings. Only three of those last nine were quality performances. It was a tale of two halves for Marcus Stroman and luckily, the good one was the latter one. After posting a 5.33 ERA in 16 starts in April, May and June, he put up a 3.41 ERA in 16 starts in July, August and September. He pitched nearly the same amount of innings in those splits but allowed 21 fewer earned runs (60 to 39) while his strikeouts went from 71 to 95. He did not have the best showing against Baltimore this season however three of the four starts against the Orioles came in that first three-month stretch. The Blue Jays have won five of his last seven home starts. 10* (932) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-29-16 | Reds +180 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
The Wild Card races in both leagues is likely to be decided this weekend and the Cardinals are right in the hunt with four games left. They are a game behind San Francisco for the second spot in the National League so of course every game is a must win at this point with the linesmakers being well aware of that. The problem is that St. Louis has been awful all season at home, going 34-43 at Busch Stadium which is the worst home record in baseball for teams that have a winning record overall. The Cardinals are 4-10 in their last 14 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. This is the final road game of the season for the Reds and this is where their season fell apart as they are 20 games under .500 on the highway but have far from quit. After the win last night, they have won four of their last five games with pitching once again being dominant, allowing two runs or less in those four wins. Pitching will take the stage again tonight with Dan Straily taking the hill and while he is far from a household name, he is having a great season. In 30 starts, he has a 3.74 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with Cincinnati winning 20 of those games which accounts for close to one-third of their total victories on the season. He has been by far the most profitable starter on the staff and going back, the Reds are 13-3 in his last 16 starts including going 6-0 in his last six starts against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals turn to Alex Reyes who is making just his fifth start of the season so his is still an unknown. While the Reds cannot hit lefties, they have teed off on righties and we expect more of the same here. 10* (957) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-28-16 | Rockies +175 v. Giants | Top | 2-0 | Win | 175 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
The Giants opened this series last night with a victory and they remain a game ahead of St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The second half has been a nightmare for San Francisco and putting together any sort of winning streak has been a problem as since the All Star Break, the Giants are 6-20 in their 26 games following a victory. Colorado has dropped the first five games of its roadtrip as the offense has been unable to get off the ground but it is important to note that four of those five games have come against left-handed starters which they have struggled against this season. Jeff Samardzija gets the ball and he has been very inconsistent this season as just 16 of his 31 starts have been quality outings. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season where he allowed no runs over seven innings but in two previous starts this season where he allowed no runs, the Giants lost his next start where he allowed six runs in 10 combined innings. Coors Field can be a nightmare for many pitchers and that is certainly the case for Tyler Chatwood. In 14 home starts, he has a 6.12 ERA and 1.64 WHIP but in 12 road starts, he has a 1.88 ERA and 1.17 WHIP so he clearly prefers the highway and this has been the case throughout his career. He is coming off another quality road start against the Dodgers but the bullpen could not come through. In his last two starts against the Giants, he has allowed just one earned run in 12 combined innings. 10* (913) Colorado Rockies |
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09-28-16 | Brewers +195 v. Rangers | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
After losing the opener of this series on Monday, the Rangers won last night to move a half-game ahead of the Red Sox for the best record in the American League. Overall, it has not been a great month for Texas as since a seven-game winning streak, it has gone 11-11 over its last 22 games while going 0-5 over its last five games after scoring five runs in its previous game. Milwaukee is just playing out the string but has not quit as the Brewers are 15-11 over their last 26 games and the profits have been huge as most of those victories have come as a sizeable underdog. Additionally, they are 17-10 on the season in Game Three following a loss. It has been a huge turnaround for Chase Anderson after struggling over the first half of the season. In 17 starts prior to the All Star Break, he posted a 5.44 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while going 4-10 but after the break, he is 5-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 13 games including 12 starts. In those 12 starts, he has not allowed more than three runs in any of them. Texas counters with Cole Hamels who has been very solid this season with a 3.30 ERA in 31 starts. However, his WHIP of 1.31 is far from dominant and most of his success has come on the road where he has a 2.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Conversely, he has a 4.45 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 14 home starts and he catches a Brewers team that has won five straight road games against left-handed starters. 10* (929) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-27-16 | Cubs v. Pirates +154 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
With the victory last night, the Cubs secured their first 100-win season in 81 years so it would not be surprising to see some players being rested over the final six games of the regular season which would be a bonus for tonight. It has been a disappointing season for the Pirates which are now two games under .500 after their third straight loss last night. Ryan Vogelsong takes the hill tonight for Pittsburgh and after a solid start from his return from the disabled list, he has recently been struggling although his most recent start was encouraging. He was pulled after just four innings but pitched well, allowing just two runs on two hits while striking out seven. Only 70 pitches thrown is a bonus. The Cubs counter with John Lackey who is coming off a quality start but that was at home where he has been spot on all season. He has struggled on the road with a 4.54 ERA in 12 starts and this will be just his fourth road start since the beginning of July compared to nine home starts. Chicago has dropped four of his last five road outings and while the lone win happened to come here in Pittsburgh, he allowed five runs in six innings but was backed by six runs from his offense. 10* (952) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-27-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees +182 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 182 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
The Red Sox clinched a playoff spot last night after the Yankees scored five runs in the ninth inning to defeat the Blue Jays and they can clinch the American League East with a win tonight. After being swept in Boston a couple weeks back, New York will try every bit for Boston to not celebrate at Yankee Stadium and the momentum from last night can carry over into this series opener. Luis Cessa will be making his eighth start of the season and he has been very solid thus far since coming out from the bullpen. He has a 4.30 ERA which does not look great but he backs it up with a 1.14 WHIP which is a better indication of how he has been. He has allowed more than three runs only once and he has been at his best under the lights where he possesses a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP covering 40.1 innings. David Price has been unbeatable of late as he has not lost since early August while the Red Sox have won his last nine starts. Facing the Yankees has not been good to him however as they have been the one team that has brought him down the most this season. He has a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in four starts against them and Boston has dropped both of his starts in New York. 10* (966) New York Yankees |
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09-26-16 | Reds +181 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-2 | Win | 181 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
St. Louis is coming off a 5-5 roadtrip and sits a half-game behind San Francisco for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cardinals head home where things have not been very good all season as they are 33-41 at Busch Stadium, easily the worst home record in baseball for teams that possess a winning record. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last six home games following a road trip of seven or more days. The Reds season has been done long ago but following four straight losses to begin this roadtrip, they won the final two games in Milwaukee over the weekend so they bring in some momentum. The Reds are now 5-2 in their last seven games following a win. Cincinnati hands the ball to Tim Adleman who has pitched solid this season, his first in the bigs. Adleman has allowed three runs or less in nine of his 11 starts this season including all five on the road where four of those have resulted in quality performances. He has not produced the win due to lack of run support but that can definitely change here. Jaime Garcia has struggled all season with consistency and he is in his worst stretch all season. He has an 8.23 ERA over his last six starts, a run that put him into the bullpen for two weeks but he gets another shot as the Cardinals decided to push back Adan Wainwright for one day. It may not be pretty once again. 10* (174) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-23-16 | White Sox +149 v. Indians | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is the final road series for the White Sox where they have been pretty bad with a 31-47 record including losses in five straight games on the highway. Chicago is a great position tonight to break the streak and getting a solid price on top of it. The White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. This is the final homestand for the Indians which have started it off 5-1 and could officially clinch the division this weekend. While they have been awesome at home all season, they are getting a little too much credit with this matchup. Trevor Bauer has had a pretty decent season but it has been going in the wrong directions. After a 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP prior to the All Star Break, he has posted a 5.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in his last 13 starts since then. This includes a miserable 9.56 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox counter with Miguel Gonzalez who has had a very good season and despite making 12 road starts, he does not have a win on the highway. That has been more bad luck than anything as he has a 3.39 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in those 12 games. He is in the best stretch of his season with 10 of his last 11 starts being quality outings while posting a 2.75 ERA in the process. 10* (971) Chicago White Sox |
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09-23-16 | Cardinals +191 v. Cubs | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
After a loss in Colorado Wednesday and wins by the Mets and Giants last night, the Cardinals are on the outside of the Wild Card standings looking in. They are a half-game out with 10 games remaining including this three-game set in Chicago, their last road series of the season. Every game matters at this point and St. Louis is worth a shot at this price. The Cubs have nothing to play for with the exception of not getting into any slumps before the postseason and getting to 100 wins for the first time since 1935. Jake Arrieta has come back down to earth in a big way. After posting a 1.75 ERA through his first 15 starts, he has put up a 4.33 ERA in his last 14 outings with only six of those resulting in a quality performance. While the Cubs are 11-3 in his 14 road starts, they are a mere 8-7 in his 15 games at Wrigley Field. St. Louis turns to Mike Leake who has had an average season but is pitching at his best right now with a 3.57 ERA over his last six starts, five of which have been quality outings. He has faced the Cubs three times this season and all have resulted in quality performances. The Cardinals are 4-0 in his last four road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (951) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-22-16 | Rockies +171 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The Dodgers avoided another loss to the Giants and left with a series win to increase their lead in the National League West to six games. The Rockies avoided a series sweep to the Cardinals as they won on Wednesday and despite being six games under .500, they have a +17 run differential, the only team in all of baseball to possess a losing record but are positive in scoring margin. Coors Field can be a nightmare for many pitchers and that is certainly the case for Tyler Chatwood. In 14 home starts, he has a 6.12 ERA and 1.64 WHIP but in 11 road starts, he has a 1.77 ERA and 1.14 WHIP so he clearly prefers the highway and this has been the case throughout his career. At Dodger Stadium, he is 3-2 with a 1.36 ERA in six starts all-time. Brett Anderson was called up and will make the start tonight but he cannot be trusted at this price. He has been on the disabled list with a blister on his left index finger and hasn't pitched since Aug. 20 when the Reds tagged him for six runs in three innings. That was only his second start, who has missed the majority of the season after undergoing surgery for a herniated disk in March. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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09-21-16 | Angels +176 v. Rangers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 176 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The Angels have dropped the first two games of this series and look to salvage something after those pair of one-run defeats. It has been a tough series overall for Los Angeles but it has been able to salvage things recently, going 7-2 in its last nine contests during Game Three of a series. Texas is getting close to clinching the American League West but are overpriced in this matchup tonight. The Rangers offense has been in a funk of late and has not been able to string many potent outputs together of late as the Rangers are 1-5 in their last six games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Derek Holland is a big reason why they are overpriced here as he is coming off a pair of bad performances as he has allowed nine runs in 9.2 innings combined. While he has been solid at home this season, it is hard to overlook the fact the Rangers are 1-4 in his last five starts against teams with a losing record. The Angels turn to Jered Weaver who is having a rough year overall but has shown some promise down the stretch as he has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts. Facing the Rangers can add to that as he has tossed seven straight quality starts against them, posting a 2.01 ERA in the process. 10* (975) Los Angeles Angels |
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09-21-16 | Royals +189 v. Indians | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Time is running out for Kansas City to defend its World Series title as it remains five games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League after the loss last night. The walkoff defeat snapped a three-game winning streak for the Royals which are in good shape tonight despite facing the Indians ace as they are 10-3 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while the Indians are 7-16 in their last 23 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Corey Kluber is the Indians aforementioned ace but he has not been as dominant as in the past and the Royals have not been his favorite opponents as going back to last season, Cleveland is just 2-7 in his last seven starts against the royals while going 4-9 in his last 13 starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Ian Kennedy counters for the Royals and he has had a very solid season with a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 30 starts. He is coming off a pair of quality outings and he has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. The Royals are 4-0 in his last four road starts, three of which have been at an underdog price. 10* (973) Kansas City Royals |
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09-20-16 | Giants +142 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 142 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
The Giants slide continues as they dropped the opener of this series last night by allowing two runs in the ninth inning and wasting a gem from Madison Bumgarner. It is now three straight losses for the Giants which have now fallen into a tie with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Dodgers lead in the National League West is now six games but they are just 1-4 in their last five games following a loss. They also fall into a negative situation where we play against favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .240 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.800 or better over his last 3 starts. This situation is 39-24 (61.9 percent) since 1997. The pitcher in this case is Johnny Cueto who has been sensational all season and has been great on the road as well with San Francisco going 12-4 in his 16 road starts. Rich Hill did not allow an earned run in his first three starts with the Dodgers but allowed four runs in just 5.1 innings against Arizona last time out. 10* (913) San Francisco Giants |
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09-20-16 | Nationals +147 v. Marlins | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Game One of this series went to Miami last night in a 4-3 victory as the Marlins try to remain in the National League Wild Card race. The Nationals have dropped three straight games but are still in fine shape with an eight-game lead in the National League East over the Mets. We should have another pitchers duel tonight and Washington has flourished in these spots this season as it is 13-4 against the money line on the road when the total is seven or less this season. Tanner Roark gets the ball for the Nationals and he has been a very consistent starter with a 2.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 30 starts, 21 of which have been quality starts. The Nationals are 11-3 in his last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Miami counters with Jose Fernandez and there used to be a time where the Marlins never lost at home when he started but that is no longer the case. They have won just four of his last seven home games after winning 30 of his first 34 home starts to start his career. The Marlins are just 2-5 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (903) Washington Nationals |
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09-17-16 | Padres +175 v. Rockies | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
We lost a tough one last night with the Padres as Colorado scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to pull out the 8-7 victory. That win snapped two streaks, a three-game winning streak for the Padres and a three-game losing streak for the Rockies so we will again go with San Diego here in what is another bad number for the favorite. The Padres are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss while the Rockies are 0-6 in their last six games following a win and we have a solid underdog situation in play where we play against home National League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that are averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against a starter whose ERA is between 5.20 and 5.70, after scoring 8 runs or more. This situation is 38-22 (63.3 percent) since 1997. While Edwin Jackson possesses a 5.32 ERA, he has turned it around as he has tossed two straight quality outings while his ERA has dropped by close to a full run. He has allowed three runs or less in his last three starts against the Rockies. Colorado hands the ball to Jon Gray who started the season very impressively with a 3.77 ERA through his first 19 starts but fatigue has caught up as over his last seven outings, he has posted a 7.71 ERA and no starter with a run like that should be laying anything close to this number. 10* (961) San Diego Padres |
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09-16-16 | Padres +157 v. Rockies | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The Padres enter the weekend fresh off a three-game sweep at San Francisco so they enter Colorado on a huge momentum run. The pitching has been solid going back further as San Diego has allowed four runs or less in seven straight games, yielding an average of just 2.3 rpg over that stretch. The Rockies week got off to the opposite start as they were swept in Arizona with the pitching getting lit up for at least 11 runs in all three games. The Rockies negative momentum has plagued them in the past as they are 5-15 after two straight losses by four runs or more over the last two seasons. Additionally, we play against National League home teams that are allowing 5.3 or more rpg on the season, after allowing eight runs or more. This situation is 57-26 (68.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Christian Friedrich is coming off one of his best starts of the season as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rockies which halted a five-game Padres skid in his starts. He has allowed no earned runs in two starts over 13 innings against the Rockies this season. Colorado turns to Tyler Chatwood who is also coming off a solid outing but he has not tossed back-to-back quality starts since June and over his last 11 starts, he possesses a 5.20 ERA. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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09-16-16 | Tigers +154 v. Indians | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
A series split at home against Minnesota was not how Detroit envisioned ending its homestand so the Tigers remain two games out of the Wild Card standings heading into a big series in Cleveland. The Indians have had their number this season with wins in 11 of the 12 meetings but Detroit did win the last one with the starting pitcher for tonight. The Tigers have won eight of their last 11 road games. Cleveland lost three of four in Chicago and returns home with a six-game lead over Detroit so the Indians could basically seal up the division with a big weekend. It will not be easy though and the Indians are 6-15 in their last 21 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Corey Kluber gets the ball for Cleveland and he has been great as usual which is the reason is as big as it is. The one big negative has been his lack of success against division opponents as Cleveland is just 10-15 in his last 25 starts against American League Central teams. Detroit counters with Michael Fulmer who came out of nowhere this season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 23 starts. He had one bad start here in May but redeemed himself with a quality outing in July. Going back, the Tigers are 11-1 in his last 12 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (919) Detroit Tigers |
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09-15-16 | Twins +140 v. Tigers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 140 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Detroit survived last night with a 9-6 win after coming back from a 5-2 deficit but today presents a challenge with the pitching matchup. Minnesota has scored 14 runs over its last two games after plating just one more than that in its previous five games combined. The Tigers are 0-3 in their last three games following a win while Minnesota is 3-1 in its last four games following a loss. Today marks the return of Mike Pelfrey who has been on the disabled list since early August with a back injury and he should not be this size of a favorite. He has a 4.76 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the season and that includes a 5.83 ERA at home where he has posted only one quality outing in 10 starts. He is going to be limited to 60 pitches today but the Tigers bullpen is not in good shape as it possesses a 4.12 ERA on the season which is nothing special and over the last five games, only one starter has made it past five innings so it is a tired bunch. The Twins counter with Hector Santiago who has finally regained his form since coming over from the Angels. He has thrown three straight quality outings, posting a 1.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in the process and this seems to be his best time to shine as he has won his last seven September starts while Detroit is hitting just .242 against lefties at home. 10* (959) Minnesota Twins |
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09-14-16 | Rockies +135 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Arizona has broken out the offense in this series, scoring 12 and 11 runs in the first two games following a six-game losing streak where it managed just 17 runs combined (2.8 rpg). The last two games can be considered an aberration as the offense is not this good. Colorado has not lost more than two in a row since late August and is 5-2 following a loss since then. The Rockies are still five games better on the road than Arizona is at home and we take advantage of the price tonight. Jeff Hoffman is winless in four starts but it has not been that bad. His first three starts came against Chicago, Washington and Los Angeles, all division leaders and while the last one came against the Padres, he did not allow an earned run. The Diamondbacks counter with Rubby De La Rosa who went just two innings in his first start in nearly four months so he cannot be counted on to go far here and the bullpen behind him has an ERA of 5.16 which is deal last in baseball. 10* (913) Colorado Rockies |
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09-14-16 | Orioles +140 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-0 | Win | 140 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
We won with the Orioles last night and we will back them again tonight in the ultimate contrarian situation. They and the Red Sox are separated by only two games yet this price is telling us otherwise as it is being driven by the starting pitching. Admittedly, Baltimore has not been great on the road this season and while Boston has thrived at Fenway Park this season, the Red Sox are just 3-7 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. The biggest pitching surprise of the season has been Rick Porcello who became the first 20-game winner in baseball in his last start. He is an amazing 13-0 at home with Boston winning all 14 of his starts but his 3.03 ERA is not at all dominating. The Orioles are a problem as in four starts against them since coming to Boston, he has an 8.87 ERA. Kevin Gausman counters for the Orioles and he has been spectacular of late, posting a 1.08 ERA over his last four starts and he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. 10* (917) Baltimore Orioles |
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09-13-16 | Orioles +145 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-3 | Win | 145 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Boston increased its lead over Baltimore to three games and held its lead over Toronto to two games in the American League East with its easy victory last night. Boston scored five times in the first inning and never looked back, outhitting the Orioles 16-2, but tonight should not be nearly as easy. Price was masterful and tonight the Red Sox turn to Drew Pomeranz who has pitched pretty well but has been very unfortunate. After getting 11 runs in his Red Sox debut, he has gotten an average of just 2.4 rpg in his last nine starts and going back, they are 1-5 in his last six starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Dylan Bundy gets the ball for the Orioles and he has been pretty solid the majority of the time. He allowed five runs against Tampa Bay last time out which was the fourth times he has allowed four runs or more and the previous three times he has followed up with a solid outing, allowing two runs in 16.2 innings combined. The Orioles are 5-2 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (967) Baltimore Orioles |
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